Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. This matchup will feature two left-handed starters: Julio Urias (Dodgers) vs. Ranger Suarez (Phillies). Last night, the Phillies won a high-scoring game, 12-10, over LA. And that was the Dodgers' 3rd straight loss. We'll take Los Angeles to bounce back tonight, as it is 13-3 after giving up more than 8 runs, and 7-2 its last nine when on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak. Even better: it's 84-30 (+17.5 net games) as a home favorite of -150 (or more); and 61-27 (+13.9 net games) vs. southpaw starters. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Brewers -142 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Following up on his Cy Young winning campaign in 2021, Corbin Burnes is putting together another outstanding season so far. Through six starts, the 27-year-old RHP has posted a 1.86 ERA together with a 6.25 K:BB ratio (50 Ks and 8 BBs) as well as a league-leading 0.80 WHIP. Now if only he could find a way to win some games. Of course it hasn't helped that in Burnes' last three starts the Brewers have plated a total of four runs and in fact, it is the main reason he only has one W to his credit so far. That could certainly change tonight in Miami as the Brewers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings here at LoanDepot Park. And Burnes has done by far his best work on the road throughout his career. In 57 road games (23 starts) Burnes is 13-4 (.765) with a 2.88 ERA vs. just 11-9 and 3.53 in 51 games (24 starts) in Milwaukee. The Marlins are coming back to Miami after a seven-game road trip but that's not necessarily a good thing as they are 0-4 in their last four games here. Take the Brew Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Mets -152 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. There's no question that RHP Taijuan Walker is struggling in his second season with the Mets. The veteran starter has posted a 4.91 ERA in three starts covering just 11 innings so far. But all three of those stars have come against the Phillies and Walker has never done particularly well against Philadelphia's baseball club. He'll likely be glad that he doesn't have to face them this afternoon. The once mighty Nationals don't look quite the same this season. Gone are players like Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Trey Turner and the only true superstar left on this squad is OF Juan Soto. Normally a .300 hitter, teams have been pitching around Soto enough this season that he's only managed roughly a .250 batting average and just 10 RBI over his first 117 at bats. Walker should be smart enough to do more of that today as the Mets try to extend their comfortable lead (6 games) in the NL East. The Mets are 4-2 in the last six meetings -- all of them here at Nationals Park. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Rays -115 v. Angels | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Angels. When it comes to finding serviceable veteran talent at bargain-basement prices, no team comes close to the Rays. Case in point is Corey Kluber. At age 36, the RHP is clearly past his prime, but the two-time Cy Young Award winner still has some gas left in the tank as evidenced by his winning record (5-3) and 3.86 ERA in 16 starts for the Yankees last season. And just for good measure, Kluber threw in a no-hitter on May 19 in Texas. Anyway, the Rays saw an opportunity to sign him as a free agent and promptly did so for the team-friendly price of just $8 Million. So far the veteran has shown he's worth every penny of that and probably much more with a 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 4.17 K:BB ratio in his first five starts covering 26 2/3 innings. In eight career starts covering 51 1/3 innings vs. the Angels, Kluber is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Rays have dominated this series lately going 20-7 in the last 27 meetings and 32-12 in the last 44 here in Anaheim. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Rays +122 v. Angels | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Anaheim Angels. Jeffrey Springs will match up against Noah Syndergaard tonight. We'll take the underdog Rays, as Tampa Bay is 113-63 (+34.9 net games) vs. righty starters, 47-40 (+18.1 net games) as an underdog, and 57-39 (+18.4 net games) its last 96 on the road. And while it's true that Syndergaard has been great this season (2.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), the Rays have excelled against excellent pitchers, as they're 14-4 their last 18 vs. American League pitchers with an ERA of 2.90 (or better), and 20-9 vs. AL pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 (or better). Meanwhile, Springs has given up just 1 earned run over 13 innings this season (0.69 ERA), and his WHIP is 0.77. Take the underdog Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Rangers v. Yankees -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. People were scratching their heads when the Yankees let several affordable free agent starters (Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, etc.) go by and sign with with other teams this past Winter. After all, the New York rotation is hardly that of the White Sox, Brewers, or Padres. But maybe the Yanks knew something that the rest of us didn't. Despite sitting pat for the most part, New York has the best pitching staff in the American League -- at least as far as team ERA is concerned. And that ridiculous 2.60 staff number is second in the Majors only to the Dodgers. One of the reasons for the success is the emergence of LHP Nestor Cortes. The 27-year-old southpaw starter is 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five starts covering just under 25 innings with 31 strikeouts and seven walks. Start number six will come this afternoon at home a day after these two played a double-header here. The Yanks are 6-3 in Cortes' last nine starts going back to September 2021. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Nationals v. Angels -180 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Washington Nationals. After the Angels' pitching staff tossed back to back shutouts (against Boston and Washington), the Nationals scored seven runs last night to win, 7-3. We'll take Anaheim to bounce back, as the Nationals are still a poor 38-85 (minus 28.4 net games) as a road underdog, while the Angels are 23-9 (+8.1 net games) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200. And LHP Patrick Sandoval has been perfect at home this season, with 0 earned runs over 11 innings pitched. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Mets -141 v. Phillies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets (in Game 2 of the Double-Header) over the Philadelphia Phillies. This match-up will feature RHP Chris Bassitt and LHP Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Bassitt has been extremely effective this season, with a 2.61 ERA over 5 starts (31 innings). And he's been at his best on the road, with 0 earned runs (in 2 starts) over 12 innings. Even better: against losing teams, Bassitt's teams (the A's last year and Mets this year) have gone 14-1, and they've gone 10-0 as a road favorite of -125 (or higher). Take the Mets in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Blue Jays -157 v. Guardians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Guardians. Those who predicted that Alek Manoah would have a breakout season and compete with the League's elite aces for a Cy Young are looking like geniuses right about now. The 24-year-old RHP is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA through five starts covering 31 innings. Start number six will come this afternoon against a Guardians club which is struggling to get to .500 this season. Even when Manoah didn't get the W, he pitched brilliantly -- against the Yankees when he threw six innings of one-run, three-hit ball in a game that the bullpen blew. This will be Manoah's first start vs. Cleveland and therefore his first start at Progressive Field. Although he's been better at home throughout his career, Manoah has been a pretty solid road pitcher as well, going 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 13 starts covering 69 1/3 innings away from Toronto/Buffalo/Dunedin. The Guardians are 8-18 in their last 26 games vs. teams from the AL East and 4-9 in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Jays. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Brewers +109 v. Braves | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers' 4-game win streak was halted yesterday by Atlanta. And it was the 3rd straight game Milwaukee has lost with its ace, Corbin Burnes, on the mound. Today, the Brewers will hand the ball to Aaron Ashby, who has started off pitching like an ace this season (although in just two starts). Ashby's ERA is 0.93, and the Brewers have won each of his starts. He'll match up against Charlie Morton, who is still trying to find his groove. After winning his first start of the season (against the pitiful Cincinnati Reds), Morton has been on the mound for four straight losses. And his ERA in those four games was 7.85, while his WHIP was 2.07. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
05-05-22 | Twins -133 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles made one of the biggest changes of any team over the winter and it had nothing to do with free agent players or coaches and managers. At the O's home park of 30 years, the team moved the left field wall back a whopping 30 feet and raised it 10. The result has been unmistakable as Camden Yards has gone from being one of the most hitter friendly venues to one that is now as stingy as they come. It's the main reason that a mostly unknown pitching staff has gone from one of the worst home ERAs in the game to one of the best (2.68). As they welcome the Twins back for the final of three games, veteran RHP Chris Archer likely can't wait to get his first start in the newly expanded ballpark. The now 33-year-old was an all-but-forgotten starter in 1 1/2 seasons in Pittsburgh and then an unremarkable return to Tampa last season. But Archer has found new life with the Twins, posting a 2.93 ERA in four starts covering 15 1/3 innings. Minnesota is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings here. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -139 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Washington Nationals. It's much too early in the MLB Season to start giving out awards, but we can say pretty confidently that the surprise team of the League so far is the Colorado Rockies. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone -- including those in the state of Colorado -- who would've thought this team would be above .500 after the first month. But the Rockies are 13-10. Few noticed when Austin Gomber was one of the players traded to the Rox as part of the deal which sent star Nolan Arenado to St. Louis back in February of 2021. And a season in which he went 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 23 starts did little to enhance his reputation. But the 28-year-old LHP is one of many surprises for Colorado so far in 2022, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts covering 21 innings. Sure, he got roughed up in his only start at Coors Field, but what pitcher doesn't? In fact, his mound opponent tonight -- the Nats' LH Patrick Corbin -- has a career 5.91 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) here. Finally, the Nats are 3-5 in the last eight meetings in Denver, and 1-11 their last 12 as an underdog of +150 or less with Corbin on the hill. Take the Rockies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Angels -118 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Boston Red Sox. Two resurrection projects of sorts will take the mound this evening in Boston when the Red Sox and Michael Wacha host the Angels and Noah Syndergaard. While Wacha's story so far this season is surprising, Syndergaard's is downright miraculous. The 29-year-old RHP was all but forgotten after a combination of the COVID pandemic and Tommy John surgery meant that the Mets were not going to sign him to a long term contract and he was granted free agency last year. With not much interest out there among teams, the Angels signed Thor to a one-year, $21 Million contract that so far is making them and their winning record look like geniuses. In three starts covering 17 innings, Syndergaard is 2-0 with a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Start number four will be just his second ever at Fenway Park. His other one was superb -- 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H and a W back in 2018. The Angels are 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite (4-0 in their last four as a road favorite). Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Braves v. Mets -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Charlie Morton will get the start for the Braves, but the reliable veteran has not been his normal self this season. He's given up between 2 and 5 earned runs in each of his four outings, covering 18 innings, for a 7.00 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. A major culprit has been walks, as he's put on 11 baserunners due to his lack of command. In contrast, Carlos Carrasco has a 0.95 WHIP, as he's walked just four batters in his 22 innings pitched (with 17 hits). In his career, Morton's teams are a poor 38-53 (minus 23.4 net games) in his daytime starts, and 46-76 (minus 15.6 net games) as an underdog. Take the Mets as a small home favorite this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Phillies v. Mets -170 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets signed veteran RHP Max Scherzer to a huge short-term contact in the off-season. The three-time Cy Young award winner would like nothing better than to win another World Series before he retires, and Scherzer just might be able to do that with this Mets team. Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season thanks to a shoulder injury, but the Mets are 15-7 and in first place without him so they can afford to wait and bring deGrom back when he's 100 percent ready. So far, Scherzer has been nothing short of amazing for his new club, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings. He will likely reach 200 career victories this season but that likely won't matter much to him unless the Mets make a deep post-season run riding on his back. His fifth start will come tonight in prime time against a Phillies team that he's completely dominated in his career. In 26 starts vs. the Phils covering just under 164 innings, Scherzer is 15-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -180 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jordan Hicks began life in the Majors as a late-inning option out of the bullpen for the Cards. In 2018, the then-21-year-old RHP finished 20 games for St. Louis, recording six saves in the process. 2019 saw Hicks assume the full-time closers role and with much success in the early part of the season it seemed as though he might have that job for years to come. But a torn UCL in June led to July elbow surgery and that was followed by COVID so Hicks opted out of the 2020 season as he recovered. After a non-descript 2021 campaign, Hicks is back and in the rotation due in part to Jack Flaherty's bad shoulder. If Hicks can get his walks under control, he could be a very good MLB starter and at just 25 years old, he has plenty of time to work on it. Expect him to get stretched out a bit in his third start this afternoon against the D-Backs -- a team that he has a 0.00 ERA against in four career innings. The D-Backs are 2-6 in their last eight meetings with the Cards in St. Louis, and 31-79 (minus 30.9 net games) as a road underdog. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-30-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. Jose Berrios came to the Blue Jays by way of the Twins at the trade deadline last July. Many thought Toronto just wanted the 27-year-old RHP for the post-season run, but after they were eliminated, the Jays and Berrios showed that they had other, long-term goals in mind when they agreed to a very friendly seven year, $131 Million contract extension that will keep him in Ontario until at least 2028. So Berrios would like nothing more than to help the Jays bring a World Series north of the border and he certainly has the tools to do it. Berrios' 4.91 ERA this season is skewed because of a horrible first start when he lasted just 1/3 inning. His three subsequent starts have been very good and Berrios is poised to finish the first month strong and take that momentum into the Summer. In seven starts last season at Rogers Centre, Berrios went 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in just over 41 innings. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Berrios' last five starts and 4-0 in his last four here at home. And they're a super 57-31 (+18.2 net games) in the daytime. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over Arizona. We played on the Cardinals and RHP Miles Mikolas earlier this week against the New York Mets. The Cards lost that game, 5-2, but Mikolas threw 7 shutout innings. Unfortunately, they blew a 2-0 lead by giving up 5 runs in the 9th. Mikolas has now had back to back scoreless outings, as he went 5 innings at Miami on April 20, in a 2-0 Cardinals win. For the season, his ERA is 1.21, with a 0.94 WHIP. And his career ERA vs. the Diamondbacks is 3.00. In contrast, Merril Kelly's career ERA vs. the Cardinals is 4.91. Arizona is a poor 23-62 as a road underdog, while the Cards are 22-5 in Mikolas' daytime starts. Take St Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-29-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers come into this weekend series against the Tigers having just lost two of three to the Dbacks who are playing better than expected. Despite the upsets in Arizona, they still have a 12-6 record and are in the thick of it in the NL West with the Giants and Padres. Shoulder discomfort landed starter Andrew Heaney on the IL which opened the door for LH Tyler Anderson -- who L.A. acquired in the off-season -- to take a turn in the rotation. His first start for the team was solid as the 32-year-old went 4 2/3 innings and allowed two runs on four hits against a good Padres team. Start number two in Dodger Blue will come tonight against a Tigers team which Anderson has only faced once previously. In that game, he held the Tigers to 2 runs over 5 innings, in a 3-2 victory. Anderson's teams are also 8-1 in his nine Interleague starts, so that bodes well for Los Angeles tonight. Many thought Detroit could compete for a playoff spot this season with its young talent, and off-season acquisitions like Javier Baez. But so far the going has been tough (6-12). L.A. is 19-7 in its last 26 games vs. the AL Central, while Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven vs. LH starters. And the Dodgers are also 85-25 (+24 net games) its last 110 as a favorite of -200 (or more). Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-29-22 | Mariners -110 v. Marlins | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Miami. Matt Brash will get the ball for Seattle this evening, and has been installed as a small favorite vs. Elieser Hernandez and the Marlins. We'll play on Seattle, as the Marlins are a horrid 3-19 their last 22 interleague games. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 68-44 (+14.8 net games) as a road favorite of -150 (or less), and are 49-29 (+23.5 net games) when priced from -125 to +125. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. St Louis was in a great position to take Game 1 of this series last night. It had a 2-0 lead entering the top of the 9th inning. And it had the Mets down to their final strike on a number of occasions. But New York rose from the dead to score 5 times with two out in that 9th inning, for a 5-2 win. Once again, the Cardinals have been installed as a home underdog against the team which may be the NL's 2nd best behind Los Angeles. St Louis will hand the ball to fireballer Jordan Hicks for his 2nd career start. He allowed 1 ER on 2H in 3 IP in his first start vs. Miami, and I expect him to go at least 4 innings this evening. Hicks will match up against Chris Bassitt, who was shelled for 5 runs and 8 hits in his last outing -- a 5-2 loss to the Giants. Admittedly, Bassitt was more effective in his first two starts, but those were against the 6-11 Diamondacks (worst batting avg. (.185) in baseball) and the 6-12 Nationals. Bassitt's career ERA vs. the Cardinals is 8.11. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. These two teams have both impressed early on. The Cardinals are 9-5, while New York is 12-5. We played on the Mets yesterday, as our MLB Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 6-2 victory over Arizona. But we'll play against the Mets tonight in this series-opening game. The mound opponents will be Max Scherzer for New York, and Miles Mikolas for St. Louis. Both pitchers are off to fantastic starts. The Mets have won each of Scherzer's 3 outings, and his ERA is 2.50, with an 0.88 WHIP. Likewise, St. Louis is 3-0 in Mikolas' starts. But his ERA is better than Scherzer's, at 1.76, while his WHIP is 1.04. Mikolas is 1-0 vs. the Mets in his career, with a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, while Scherzer's record vs. St. Louis is below .500, at 5-6 (though his ERA is solid, at 2.53). The key to our pick tonight is that St. Louis has been installed as a medium-sized home underdog. The Cards are a perfect 6-0 since 2020 with Mikolas on the hill when installed as an underdog of +150 or less, while the Mets are a poor 50-71 (minus 27.1 net games) on the road (including 27-28 (minus 12.8 net games) as a road favorite). Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Mets -160 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Arizona Diamondbacks. New York is off to a blistering 11-5 start, and has yet to lose a series this season. With a win this afternoon, the Mets will keep their perfect series record intact, with their 5th straight series win. RHP Tylor Megill will get the start for New York, and he's led the Mets to wins in each of his 3 starts this season. Megill's ERA is 2.20, and his WHIP is 0.91. Even better: in two road starts, he's yet to allow a run, and has put just six men on base in 10 1/3 innings (0.00 ERA; 0.58 WHIP). He'll match up against veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner (1.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) today. Though Bumgarner's ERA is great, he's also allowed an NL-worst 10 men to reach via a walk. That could spell trouble against a Mets offense which has drawn 62 walks (#4, MLB), and plated 75 runs (#2, MLB). Bumgarner faced New York just once last season, and was bombed for 5 earned runs and eight hits in 2 innings, in a 7-6 New York victory. Arizona has scored just 47 runs this season, which is 2nd worst in the NL. And it's an awful 11-30 (minus 14.1 net games) as a home underdog priced from +125 to +175, and 27-47 (minus 13.4 net games) in day games. Take the Mets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-23-22 | Brewers +135 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. With perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch of any rotation in MLB, the pressure is not as intense on the #4 and #5 starters of the Brewers as it is for other teams. That he doesn't have to perform like an ace has been apparent for RHP Adrian Houser. The 29-year-old went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 28 games (26 starts) in 2021 -- the first season that the Brew Crew had "the Big Three" of Burnes, Woodward, and Peralta at the top of the rotation. This year is more of the same for Houser who has posted a 2.89 ERA in two starts covering 9 1/3 innings. The only thing missing so far is a win, but that could come this afternoon against a Phillies team which has been underwhelming so far to say the least. Houser was stretched out to 5 2/3 innings in his second start, pitching well enough to get the "W" vs. the Cards, but the offense was napping that day as the Crew lost, 2-1. In four career games vs. the Phils (one start) Houser has a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 11 innings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -180 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Call Jameson Taillon a typical Pirates top pitching prospect. The RH was selected second overall by Pittsburgh in 2010 and proceeded to go absolutely nowhere in four seasons with the Bucs once he reached the Majors in 2016. The talent was there, however, and Taillon flashed it in 2018 when he went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and a league-leading two complete games. Elbow surgery came at a opportune time (2020 COVID season) and then Taillon's prayers were answered with a trade to the Yankees just as he was ready to pitch again. He was solid last season with an 8-6 record and 4.30 ERA in 29 starts and looks to improve on that this season and hopefully pitch into October and the playoffs. His second start of 2022 comes tonight at home against a Guardians team which has been hot and cold so far. Taillon has thrived in his new home park, going 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 16 starts here. And coming into this series, the Yanks are 6-3 in their last nine meetings with Cleveland. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -123 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Baltimore Orioles. After Paul Blackburn went 3-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 starts in his first MLB season with the A's back in 2017, there were some high expectations for the future. After all, the RHP was a first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 and stayed in their system until traded to Oakland in 2016, so there was obviously some talent there. But the promise of 2017 did not materialize over the next four seasons -- all with the A's -- and Blackburn was little more than an afterthought coming into this season. But that form seems to have returned somehow as the now-28-year-old has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two starts covering 10 innings. And those two were on the road against two very good teams in the Rays and Blue Jays, so Blackburn gets rewarded this afternoon with his first home start against the 4-8 Orioles. Despite a 5.47 career ERA in 32 games, Blackburn has a 3.72 number in two starts vs. Baltimore. The O's are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 22-52 in the last 74 in Oakland. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets -128 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Francisco Giants. At the ripe age of 35 years old, RHP Carlos Carrasco is off to arguably his best start since he came into the Majors with Cleveland back in 2009. Carrasco has survived major elbow surgery, multiple other injuries, and even a bout with cancer and yet this could be his best season yet -- and his best chance at winning a World Series ring. The Mets are being cautious with him thus far, which is one reason why despite a 0.84 ERA over his first two starts, Carrasco is still looking for his first victory. Perhaps facing the Giants, against whom Carrasco has a 3.00 career ERA, will do the trick. With Jacob deGrom dealing with an injury that could keep him out for a while, the Mets need Carrasco to step up, and he's done that and more already this season. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Mets are still 38-17 in their last 55 games as a home favorite. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers -122 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Last season, Los Angeles ended its regular season on a 13-game home win streak. It then started this regular season with seven straight wins at home. It did lose at home yesterday, but is now 20-1 its last 21 regular season home games. We'll take Los Angeles in this rare daytime "businessman's special" home game, at Chavez Ravine. Tony Gonsolin will get the start for Dave Roberts' crew, and Gonsolin is in "mid-season" form early on, as he has given up just 1 earned run over seven innings. In contrast, Braves starter Charlie Morton has not flashed his strong stuff, as he's given up seven earned runs, 4 walks, and 11 hits in 10 1/3 innings, for a 6.10 ERA, and a 1.45 WHIP. The Dodgers are a dominant 76-27 (+25.8 net games on the moneyline) in daytime home games, while Morton's teams have gone 38-52 (minus 22.4 net games) in his career daytime starts. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Houston Astros. With their backs against the proverbial outfield wall, the Astros bounced back in a big way on Sunday, winning Game 5 and bringing this series back home with a chance to win it on their home field. Once again the Braves got to Houston early with a first inning grand slam before some people had settled into their Truist Park seats. But Houston finally solved the Atlanta bullpen and got out of town with a 9-5 victory. By now, Braves' LHP Max Fried's playoff struggles have been well documented. But let's not forget that this is a pitcher who was one of the most dominant starters in the second half. And Fried finished the season 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 28 starts. The 'Stros will go with RH Luis Garcia tonight and it's important to note that -- as much as Fried has struggled this post-season -- Garcia's 7.62 ERA is much higher than Fried's 5.40. Including the post-season, Garcia has allowed 12 ER in his last four home starts covering 16 2/3 innings (a 6.49 ERA). Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-31-21 | Astros -111 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Atlanta Braves. This is an action play tonight -- please don't list pitchers. If the Astros can't come back to win three games in a row and take the 2021 World Series, they will look back on Game 4 as the one that got away. The Braves started unheralded Dylan Lee last night and the 'Stros jumped on him right away. They added what should have been an insurance run in the top of the 4th inning but they couldn't seal the deal and Atlanta came back to win 3-2 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. But they once again will have to go with an "opener" tonight whereas the Astros have Game 1 pitcher Framber Valdez ready to go on regular rest. The 27-year-old southpaw starter may be struggling somewhat this post-season, but he knows tonight is his chance to erase all that has happened up this point. And we're talking about a starter who was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 22 regular season starts in 2021. The Astros hitters, of course, will also have to step up but I expect this veteran, and battle-tested team to do just that tonight in a must-win Game 5. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-30-21 | Astros +101 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Atlanta Braves. This is an action play -- please do not list starters for either team. The Braves had some very strong pitching performances in the NLCS against the mighty Dodgers. But on Friday night, they took it to a whole different level, shutting out the Astros while limiting them to just two hits the entire game. No doubt, the 'Stros were not happy with what transpired at Truist Park last night. Enter a veteran starter who has more post-season experience than probably any other player in this series. After nursing a sore neck that limited him to bullpen duty, 38-year-old RHP Zack Greinke will get his second start of the 2021 playoffs. And the Astros won his first start, 9-2, vs. Boston, though Greinke didn't factor in the decision. It will be a "bullpen game" for the Braves, who will announce their starter later today. And although their pen has been extremely strong this series, it's a different situation when one of them has to go out there for the top of the first inning. Houston is 5-1 in Greinke's last six post-season starts, and it's 12-5 its last 17 after getting shutout in its previous game, including 5-2 this season. And, most importantly, Greinke's teams have gone 6-1 with him on the mound when trailing in a Playoff series! Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Houston Astros. In what was pretty much a must-win Game 2 at home, the Astros returned the favor from Game 1, getting on the board early against the Braves and never looking back to even this World Series. Once every so often, we see a starter who puts up solid numbers in the regular season, but then goes off in the playoffs. It appears that Ian Anderson is just such a pitcher. In the 2021 regular season, the 23-year-old RHP went 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 24 starts. Combined with his rookie season stats, Anderson is 12-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 30 starts. But take a look at his post-season numbers over the last two seasons and you will be amazed. In seven playoff appearances (all starts), Anderson is 3-0 with a ridiculous 1.47 ERA in just under 31 innings pitched. And five of those seven starts came in Atlanta where Friday night's Game 3 will take place. Not only that, but the Braves are 6-1 in those seven starts, including 3-0 in his three post-season starts this Fall. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -114 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Atlanta Braves. The starting pitchers for each team tonight were crushed in their last game. Max Fried gave up 5 runs over 4 2/3 innings in an 11-2 loss at Los Angeles, while Jose Urquidy also surrendered 5 earned runs over 1 2/3 in a 12-3 loss at Boston. Both Fried and Urquidy had better numbers at home this season, than on the road. And that's good news for Urquidy, as this game will be played in Houston, where he was 4-1 in 10 starts this season, with a 3.35 ERA and an impressive 0.88 WHIP. And Houston was a perfect 4-0 at home vs. Playoff teams behind Urquidy this season. The Astros are 16-8 (7.6 net games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to -125 at home, while the Braves are 2-5 this season behind Max Fried as a road underdog. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Dodgers -145 v. Braves | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Often, when a baseball team's offense is struggling, there comes a singular defining moment signaling that it has come out of its slumber. Game 5 was such a moment for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only did they get a rare post-season three-HR performance from Chris Taylor but they also saw AJ Pollock quietly hit a pair of round-trippers in the 11-2 pasting. The Dodgers don't need to repeat that tonight in Atlanta -- they likely only need to do half as well and they will force a Game 7 here. Max Scherzer was scratched from his start due to the same arm fatigue that has been plaguing the ace for some time, but the Dodgers have an ace in the hole in Walker Buehler. The 27-year-old righty will be making just his second career start on short rest. He also went on 3 days rest in Game 4 of the series vs. San Francisco, and allowed just 1 run over 4 1/3 innings. But, clearly, Buehler has told his team he feels well enough to go. And the fact that he only went 3 2/3 innings this past Tuesday (a 6-5 Dodgers win) will likely help him here, tonight. Buehler has led the Dodgers to wins in his last three starts vs. Atlanta, and five of seven vs. Atlanta, overall (3.69 ERA; 1.10 WHIP). Meanwhile, Ian Anderson has a career 5.02 ERA vs. Los Angeles, and has given up 6 runs over 7 1/3 innings this season, in two starts. The Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros 'under' the total. With the Astros one win away from another World Series, this series turns back to the Game 2 starters. RHs Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Garcia will take the mound tonight at Minute Maid Park and you may think -- looking at the result of that Game 2 here -- that this will be another run-fest. But there are at least a couple of reasons to think that Game 6 will be different. First, I expect RH Luis Garcia's performance tonight to be much better than his outing in Game 2. That was his first-ever post-season start, and he battled his nerves as much as the BoSox bats. The 24-year-old should be more at ease tonight, and I expect to see the hurler who we saw in the regular season (a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 games). Second, Eovaldi has been extremely stingy when starting in the post-season. The three runs that the veteran allowed in Game 2 were the most that he's ever surrendered as he'd only allowed a total of six in his previous four playoff starts. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two in Houston. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -130 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Down to their last gasp, the Dodgers will certainly pull out all the stops in what could be the last game at Dodgers Stadium this year. The task may seem even more difficult because the Los Angeles lineup will be facing LH Max Fried tonight. Fried pitched six quality innings in Game 1 to get things started for the Braves. However, that start was at home. L.A. will be happy to know that for his career, Fried is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts covering seven innings here at Dodger Stadium. And notwithstanding last night's win, Atlanta is still a miserable 1-10 its last 11 here at Chavez Ravine. Dave Roberts has announced that his veteran RH, Joe Kelly, will get the start for the Dodgers tonight. At home this season, Kelly has 2.33 ERA, and opponents are batting .133 against him. After Kelly, it will no doubt be a myriad of relievers on the mound for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 28-11 after allowing more than 7 runs in their previous game, while Atlanta is a poor 22-29 (minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) after scoring more than 7 runs in its previous game. With their backs against the wall, we'll take the Dodgers tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -211 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -211 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. For this game, just list Julio Urias as a starter, but not Atlanta's pitcher. It's reported that Mark Twain famously said "the rumors of my death were greatly exaggerated." After their Wild Card game against the Cards, Division Series against the Giants and last night's Game 3 with the Braves, this could be the new rallying cry of the 2021 L.A. Dodgers. Down two games to none, L.A. was behind 5-2 going into the bottom of the eighth inning here at home before scoring four runs and pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. Perhaps fittingly, it was Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts who won the game for the Dodgers and prevented them from going into an 0-3 hole. And whose shoulders better to put the weight of tonight's Game 4 on than MLB's only 20-game winner. Dodgers' LH Julio Urias will get the start tonight at home where he went 7-1 during the regular season. For his career, Urias is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA vs. the Braves in four games (two starts) covering 15 innings. L.A. is 12-0 in Urias' last 12 starts overall, 11-1 in Urias' last 12 starts vs. NL East teams, and 53-12 (+24.6 net games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced at -200 or more. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 0-7 as a road underdog of +150 or more. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-20-21 | Astros +113 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 113 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. In Game 4 last night here in Boston, the Astros needed their bullpen and hitters to step up in a big way and they did. With the game tied at 2-2 going into the ninth inning, Boston Manager Alex Cora decided to try to apply the knockout punch by putting his #1 starter Nathan Eovaldi into the game in relief. How did it work? Let's just say that Cora is probably wishing he could take that move back. All of a sudden, the advantage in this series has swung back to the Astros, who will send Game 1 starting pitcher Framber Valdez to the mound this afternoon. In that Game 1, Valdez lasted just 2 2/3 innings but he was followed by seven relievers who allowed a total of one run on four hits in what would turn out to be a 5-4 Houston victory. In his career, Valdez has made three starts for Houston vs. Boston, and the Astros have won all three. Valdez' ERA is 2.12, while is career WHIP is 1.23 vs. Boston. The Astros are now 7-2 in their last nine games vs. teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, in his career Chris Sale's teams have gone 56-66 (minus 33 net games on the moneyline) vs. winning opponents. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. After three games in which 38 total runs were scored, the offense of the Red Sox took the night off on Tuesday to a large extent (as did the Astros' offense for eight of the first nine innings). With Chris Sale and Framber Valdez heading back to the hill in Game 5 tonight you can probably expect more of the same. In Game 1 of this series, Valdez started and pitched just 2 2/3 innings but kept his team in the game. He was followed by seven relievers who gave up a total of one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings to nail down a 5-4 victory. Sale returned late in the season from Tommy John surgery. And although he hasn't looked great in his two post-season starts against the Rays and Astros, it's important to note that both of those were on the road. This will be the veteran LH's first post-season home start of 2021. In six Fenway starts since his return, Sale is 5-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 29 innings. And Valdez' career numbers in his three starts vs. Boston are a 2.12 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-19-21 | Astros +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-2 | Win | 115 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. The Astros have gotten steamrolled the past two games, 9-5 and 12-3 by Boston. So, in this critical Game 4, they'll turn to the veteran RH, Zack Greinke, with the hope that he can summon his past post-season experience to get them through this rough pitching patch. It's true that Greinke's best days are behind him. But his road ERA this season was 3.45, which compares favorably to Nick Pivetta's 5.40 ERA here at Fenway Park. Moreover, Pivetta has never started a playoff game in his career, while Greinke has 19 starts in the post-season to his credit. And the Red Sox have lost six of Pivetta's last seven starts, with their only win coming against the cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles. And Pivetta gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 3 2/3 innings in that ball game (in which Boston was a -280 favorite). Indeed, the Red Sox have lost Pivetta's LAST 8 starts in which Boston wasn't favored by -250 (or more). Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -172 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won the first two games of this series at home, something that's been more difficult to do in this year's post-season than in most past ones. This afternoon the series swings back to Los Angeles for what would appear to be a must-win situation for the Dodgers -- at least based on the way the Braves are playing right now. The good news is that in the third game of this series the Dodgers get to bring out RHP Walker Buehler, who is 3-0 in his six career starts vs. the Braves with a 3.06 ERA. Buehler finished the regular season with a 16-4 record and 2.47 ERA in a league-best 33 starts. RH Charlie Morton goes to the hill for the road team, which is an awful 0-6 this season as a road underdog of +150 or more. Morton did go 14-6 this season, with a 3.34 ERA. But the Braves lost all three of his starts when they were a road underdog. The mid-afternoon start time also bodes well for Los Angeles. In six daytime starts this season, Buehler went 5-1 (.833) with a 2.45 ERA. Morton, on the other hand, did not fare quite so well, going 1-2 with 4.17 ERA in seven afternoon starts (vs. 13-4 and 3.14 in 26 starts under the lights). And in his career, his teams are a wallet-breaking 38-51 (minus 21.4 net games on the moneyline) in the daytime. With the Dodgers a reliable 92-47 (+17 net games) off a loss (including 22-7 with Buehler), and 30-16 (+5.1 net games) off back-to-back losses, we'll take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Astros +108 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. Like they did in the Division Series against the Rays, the Red Sox came back with a vengeance on the road in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to Houston. Boston scored all nine of its runs on homers, including becoming the first team in history to hit two grand slams in the same post-season game. But despite the fact that they are coming home on quite a high, the Sox have a challenge ahead of them. They've used Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck in the first two games and so now the choice for starter in Game 3 is a subpar Eduardo Rodriguez. The Astros on the other hand will go with RHP Jose Uquidy who had a very effective regular season, despite being cut short by a nagging shoulder injury. In 20 starts covering 107 innings, the 26-year-old went 8-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with a 4.74 K:BB ratio. Urquidy has a 2.81 ERA in eight post-season appearances (four starts). Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-17-21 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. After a couple days of rest since recording the first save of his career in an incredible Game 5 against the Giants, Max Scherzer will be back to his familiar role tonight in Game 2 of the NLCS. Scherzer was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season, going 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 13 starts covering 81 1/3 innings since the break. Scherzer shouldn't feel any effects tonight from that successful relief appearance on Thursday, as he only faced four batters and threw 13 pitches in closing out San Francisco. The Braves will go with RHP Ian Anderson. The 23-year-old second-year rookie went 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 24 regular season starts covering 128 1/3 innings. But in his only start vs. L.A. this season, Anderson allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings and took the loss in a 9-5 Dodgers victory on June 4. In his last nine post-season appearances, Scherzer's teams (the Nats and Dodgers) are 8-1. And the Dodgers are 16-2 their last 18 off a defeat in their previous game. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-16-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The 2021 NLCS will feature the same two teams who met in this series a year ago. Game 1 is being played in Atlanta despite the fact that the Dodgers finished the season 18 games better than the Braves in the won-lost column. Game 1 will also feature one of the hottest starters in all of the Majors in the second half of the season in LH Max Fried. Since the break, Fried went 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 14 second half starts covering 83 innings. Los Angeles will counter with a bullpen game, and will start things off with Corey Knebel. The Dodgers used this strategy on Thursday in their Game 5 win vs. the San Francisco Giants, and Knebel pitched a scoreless inning. He's made five starts this season, and has allowed just one earned run in those games. Los Angeles has won four of those five starts. Meanwhile, Fried hasn't had much success vs. the Dodgers, as he's 1-3 in seven starts, with a middling 3.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. And the Braves are a wallet-busting 32-37 (but minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) at home off 3+ wins. Finally, LA is 33-15 (+7.5 net games) vs. lefties. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -126 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. What a season this could turn out to be for a player who was an unheralded 23-year-old when he made his debut last September. Luis Garcia came into this past Spring pretty much unheard of. But now the Astros' second-year rookie starter stands to be one of the finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year award. And the 24-year-old RH would almost certainly trade that for a trip to the World Series in his first full season in the Majors. Garcia finished the season with an 11-8 record, 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 games (28 starts) covering 155 1/3 innings. It won't be easy this afternoon against the Red Sox and their #1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi, but all season Garcia has defied the odds. This start lines up well for Garcia who was 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA in 15 home games (13 starts) vs. 5-3 and 4.24 in 15 road starts. Among Garcia's victims was Boston back on June 1 when he spun seven strong innings allowing one run on five hits in a 5-1 Astros victory. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. This is the fifth straight season that the Astros have made it to the ALCS. That's impressive on any level but is even more so when you consider the penalties that were put on this club after it won it all in 2017. They haven't returned to the World Series since then but they stand an excellent chance now having to play a Red Sox club that was lucky to get in at the last minute as a Wild Card. Houston will send one of their many consistent starters from this season to the mound in LHP Framber Valdez. Valdez finished the season with an 11-6 record and 3.14 ERA in 22 starts covering 134 2/3 innings. He didn't get his first start until the end of May due a fractured finger but once he got the ball, Valdez was arguably the 'Stros' most consistent starter. Houston dominated the season series, taking five of the seven meetings between these two. The Astros are 57-19 in their last 76 with at least one off day. And they are 6-1 in Valdez's last seven starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Meanwhile, in his career Chris Sale's teams have gone 56-65 (minus 32 net games on the moneyline) vs. winning opposition. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-14-21 | Dodgers -105 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Unlike Corbin Burnes who told the Brewers he was physically unable to pitch on three days rest when his team needed a win on Tuesday, Dodgers ace Walker Buehler said, "hand me the ball." The results for those two teams were as you might expect, with the Brewers going home and the Dodgers going back to San Francisco for Game 5 tonight. And with the day off, L.A. gets the services of the Major League wins leader, LHP Julio Urias, on regular (four days) rest. Urias pitched Game 2 here in San Francisco and not only was the 25-year-old his usual dominant self, but the Dodgers' offense responded in a big way, scoring nine runs on the way to an easy 9-2 victory. Lest you think Urias' inexperience might get to him tonight in this all-or-nothing situation, consider that he has already appeared in 19 MLB post-season games covering 42 2/3 innings, including four starts. His 2.68 playoff ERA is lower than his regular season number (3.09). I won't step in front of this battle-tested southpaw, as Urias has won 12 consecutive decisions, and the Dodgers are 16-2 his last 18 starts, including 12-0 his last 12. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. This is an action play; please do not list pitchers. The Dodgers were the pre-season favorites to repeat as World Series Champions, while the Giants were 80-1 to win the World Series, but the tables have turned, and the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination. However, the Dodgers were also on the brink when they played a one-game Wild Card elimination against the Cardinals at home last Wednesday. We played on Los Angeles in that one, and they came through that night. Instead of Max Scherzer, it will be an "all hands on deck" game, which will include Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin, among others taking the mound for the defending champs. Buehler is 7-2 lifetime vs. the Giants, and has given up just 4 earned runs in his four home starts vs. SF, covering 25 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Gonsolin may not have Buehler's pedigree, but he has been sneaky good this season, posting a 4-1 record and 3.23 ERA in 15 games. The 27-year-old will likely follow Buehler, and only will have to throw a few innings tonight, as the Dodgers will have plenty of other options to fill the nine innings. Gonsolin was 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA here at home this season (vs. 5-3 and 3.34 on the road). And Los Angeles has won 16 of its last 17 home games. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-11-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves 'over' the total. The big pitching guns for these two teams faced off in the first 2 games and the results were as you might suspect. Going into Game 3 the series is tied at a game apiece and a total of 6 runs have been tallied. Things should be quite a bit different this afternoon as RHs Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson take the mound for their respective teams. These two are solid starters for sure, but not the shutdown type of aces that we saw in the first two games (Burnes and Morton; Woodruff and Fried). Peralta was solid through much of the season, but wore down toward the end. In his last six starts, the 25-year-old is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA -- certainly not the type of numbers you want to see heading into a young pitcher's first-ever post-season start. Anderson has been getting strong run support lately as in his last six starts, the Braves have plated a total of 40 runs. The over is 6-2-1 in Atlanta's last nine divisional playoff home games, while the Brewers are 36-21 'over' after scoring less than 2 runs. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -115 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros. Having been soundly beaten in the first two games of this ALDS -- a combined score of 15-5 -- this pretty much becomes a must-win situation for the Chicago White Sox in Game three. The good news is they're at home and they have their young gun RHP Dylan Cease going in his second career post-season appearance (first start). The important thing to note is that the Sox were able to line up Cease's first playoff start here at home. It's well known by now that during the regular season, the 25-year-old has had one of the strongest home-field biases in the game. In 16 starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 7-5 and 4.69 with a 1.33 WHIP in 16 road starts. The other good thing about coming home is that the Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Astros here in Chicago, and 22-10 their last 32 at home with double-revenge. Despite all of their success lately, the Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games vs. teams with a winning record, and a poor 20-33 (minus 14.3 net games) on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. After going down with a whimper in Game one of the ALDS, Boston bounced back in a big way in Game two, plating 14 runs in a blow-out. So now the Sox sit in a very good position as their #1 starter, who pitched them into the Division Series when he beat New York in the Wild Card game, is ready to go at home in Game three on regular (four days) rest. Eovaldi just faced the Rays about a month ago (September 8) and all he did was throw seven innings of shutout ball, allowing just three hits with eight strikeouts in a 2-1 Red Sox victory. And like this afternoon, that game was played at Fenway Park so it would be no surprise if a similar score was the outcome here today. The Rays will go with RHP Drew Rasmussen. The 25-year-old has a 2.44 ERA in 20 games, which is obviously very good. But he's been even better as a starter, going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in that role (10 starts). The under is 8-3 in Boston's last 11 and 7-2 in Tampa's last nine. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The two teams that long ago used to be one and the same face off in this first round series. For a while, it looked like Corbin Burnes would be a shoe-in for NL Cy Young, especially when Jacob deGrom went down with an injury. He was pretty much untouchable through the first month of the season and went on to an All-Star first half. He looked a lot more mortal in many of his second half starts and yet the 26-year-old RHP still finished with a league-best 2.43 ERA in 28 starts. The only stat that might keep him from winning that Cy Young hardware is his 11 victories, but nobody will care about that too much this afternoon if Burnes can channel the version of himself that threw goose-eggs in eight of his starts this season. Burnes has made six playoff appearances and has a 2.00 ERA in those, but this will be his first post-season start. His lone start vs. Atlanta this season wasn't one of his best but the Brewers won the game easily, 9-5. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -146 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. In a Wild Card race that seemed to go on forever, the Red Sox finally emerged victorious, beating the Yankees at home on Tuesday night, 6-2. The prize is a Fall meeting with the AL-best Rays. In truth -- on paper at least -- it probably didn't matter which of those two clubs came out of the one-game playoff as the Rays have been pretty dominant against both New York and Boston recently. In 19 games against the Sox, Tampa went 11-8 and they had an identical record against the Bronx Bombers as well. Tampa, of course, has a rested rotation and will begin with the man who has emerged as their #1 starter, LHP Shane McClanahan. The 24-year-old rookie finished the regular season 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 25 starts. The Sox had to use their #1, Nathan Eovaldi, on Tuesday in the Wild Card game so they will turn to veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 divisional Playoff road games, while the Rays are 52-29 (+10 net games on the moneyline) at home. And Rodriguez's ERA in his 13 career starts vs. Tampa is an ugly 5.21. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -217 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals. There seems to be little doubt that the 2021 Dodgers are the best Wild Card team in sports history. The Dodgers were the early season favorites to win the World Series and were it not for one of the most unexpected seasons ever from the Giants (who were 50-1 preseason longshots just to win the NL West), they would have home field advantage all the way through. The Cardinals and their 40-year-old RHP Adam Wainwright might be the sentimental favorites for a lot of people tonight, but they are really up against it. The reason that L.A. traded some of its better prospects to the Nats for RHP Max Scherzer and IF Trea Turner is because Scherzer is made for exactly this type of situation. The three-time Cy Young winner will get the ball tonight opposite Wainwright, and Scherzer is 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA in 22 post-season games (18 starts) covering 112 innings. And if you have any doubt about the Dodgers being the perfect fit for him, since he arrived in Los Angeles, Scherzer is 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 11 starts covering just over 68 innings. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. It seems like it was a long time in the making but the Yankees and Red Sox will finally face off in a one-game playoff with the winner getting the right to continue on in October. As luck would have it, this match-up has lined up such that both teams will have their #1 starters on the mound tonight. That doesn't always happen and could mean a long night for both of the offenses. Everyone knows about Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole and his Cy Young caliber season, but Boston's RH Nathan Eovaldi has also had a very good campaign, albeit much quieter than that of Cole. He may have cooled off a bit since being voted an All Star for the first time in his career back in July, but Eovaldi has still posted a winning record (11-9) with a 3.75 ERA in a league-leading 32 starts. The under is 7-1 in the Red Sox's last eight games overall as well as 5-0 in their last five vs. teams from the AL East. The under is also 6-2-1 in Yankees last nine road games, and 5-1 in New York's last 6 match-ups vs. Eovaldi. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck....Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -217 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. With the Giants' loss in extra innings last night coupled with the Dodgers' win over the Brewers, the Giants have a one-game lead and need this victory today to avoid a one-game playoff with L.A. The good news is that they are sending out the pitcher who has been arguably their best starter over the past couple of months. 24-year-old RHP Logan Webb has come out of nowhere to not only be one of the most effective starters on this team, but also in the entire league. In 26 games -- including 25 starts -- Webb is 10-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. More importantly, the Giants are an incredible 9-1 in Webb's last 10 starts going back to early August. The only team loss in those 10 starts? That was two starts ago against this Padres team, making this afternoon's final start a revenge situation as well. Not only that, but in his last 11 home starts, the Giants are 11-0. San Fran is 39-18 (+21 games on the moneyline) in its last 57 day games. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Last Sunday, Jake Odorizzi came off the IL to start against this Oakland A's team. The 31-year-old RHP had been unhappy with his role with the pitching-rich Astros lately and didn't have a problem making it known. He had a solid start last time but nothing close to what Odorizzi used to do when he was in his prime and the 'Stros dropped a 4-3 decision. That one was in Oakland and tonight Odorizzi will try to exact some revenge at home in what he hopes will be a longer start than the four-inning outing he had last Sunday. This season, Odorizzi has done his best work here at home, posting a 3.61 ERA in 10 games -- nine starts -- covering 42 1/3 innings. On the road, his ERA is almost a run higher at 4.53 in 13 starts covering just under 58 innings. The A's don't have anything to play for, now that they've been eliminated from the AL Wild Card race. Meanwhile, Houston is 72-22 (+ 31 net games on the moneyline) at home vs. division foes. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-01-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -250 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers. Lance Lynn is having a terrific season (10-6, 2.72 ERA), but stumbled badly in his last start, six days ago, when he gave up six earned runs. The good news is that when he's given up more than three earned runs, he's bounced back strong in his next start, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 23 2/3 innings the previous five instances. He will be working with an extra day of rest tonight, and that also bodes well, as his teams are 39-15 (+19.5 net games on the moneyline when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest). Lynn has faced Detroit three times over the last three seasons, and has a 3-0 record (19 innings, 3 runs, 25 strikeouts). Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Rays v. Astros -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Astros RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. desperately wanted to show that he could have an injury-free season and start 30 games in the Majors. He won't quite get there, but he has to be pretty happy with what he's accomplished in 2021. The 27-year-old will get his career-best 28th start tonight, and he comes in with an excellent 12-5 record and 3.17 ERA. If McCullers could just cut down on his walks, he could make the transition from very good to great pitcher and possibly one of the AL's elite starters. And it wouldn't hurt his confidence if he picked up the "W" in his final start of the season against the team with the best record in the league -- and a team that the Astros could see in October. McCullers has always done his best work here at home. In 59 starts at Minute Maid Park, McCullers is 25-10 (.714) with a 2.76 ERA vs. just 19-20 and 4.48 in 62 games (59 starts) on the road. Tampa is 2-6 in the last eight meetings in Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Rays +120 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros. This series during the last week of the regular season is a possible preview of a post-season match-up in the AL. The Stros drew first blood last night when the Rays' normally solid bullpen walked in the tying and winning runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. With the dramatic victory, the Astros are now on the verge of clinching the AL West division title. The Rays will try to even the series tonight and will send young RHP Drew Rasmussen to the mound in an attempt to do so. Few noticed when the Rays sent IF Willy Adames to the Brewers for the 26-year-old hurler in May, but the trade helped both teams clinch their divisions. In 19 games since joining the Rays (nine starts), Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll try to build on that success tonight in his first career starts vs. Houston. The Rays are 6-2 in Rasmussen's last eight starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road starts going back to July 24. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Brewers +105 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Thanks in large part to one of the hottest streaks we've seen from any Major League club in recent years, the Cardinals are on the verge of securing a Wild Card spot. Their reward -- if you can call it that -- will be a one game playoff against either the Dodgers or Giants. The Cards will go into that game with almost no pressure, knowing that just a couple of months ago few people gave them any chance to be in this position. But tonight it's the 2nd game of a 3-game set against their main rivals, the Brewers. Milwaukee's RHP Adrian Houser will try to do what no one else has been able to in the Cards' last 17 games. Houser's solid season (9-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 27 games including 25 starts) has been overshadowed by the performances of the other starters in the rotation. No doubt he and the Brewers would love to see him get to double-digit wins for the first time in his career. The Crew is 3-1 in Houser's last four starts vs. the Cards. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +101 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed to score just two runs against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and fell, 7-2. Tonight, the Jays will look to bounce back, and stay in the race for the final playoff berth (the Jays currently sit one game behind Boston, and three behind New York). Toronto is 25-12 (+11 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than three runs. Take the Blue Jays. |
|||||||
09-28-21 | A's -116 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners. You can't make up the season that Chris Bassitt has had. The 32-year-old was voted to his first All Star game on the strength of a first half in which he went 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 19 starts covering 118 innings. And the second half started solidly as well for Bassitt in starts against the Rangers, Indians, Rangers, and tonight's opponents, the Mariners. But then in his start on August 17 against the White Sox, Bassitt was struck in the head by a line drive in one of the scariest moments of the season. Miraculously, Bassitt made his comeback start only five weeks after that terrible incident and it was against this Seattle team. In three near-perfect innings, Bassitt allowed just one run and struck out four M's batters while looking every bit the All Star he was earlier in the season. In 15 road starts this season, Bassitt is 8-1 even though he has a higher ERA than at home. Take the Athletics. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-28-21 | Brewers -114 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals. Brandon Woodruff was a tough-luck loser last week vs. the Cardinals (as a -200 favorite). Woodruff struck out 10 batters, and allowed just two hits and one run over six innings, but Milwaukee lost 2-1. We'll take Woodruff to make amends this evening, as the Brewers are 19-12 in his starts after he gave up 1 run or less in his previous outing. And they're 19-11 in his starts when priced from +125 to -125. Milwaukee comes into this game off an 8-4 win over the Mets, and is riding a 3-game win streak. That bodes well for them in this game, as the Brewers are 55-25 off a win by more than 3 runs, and 61-31 this year off a win. St. Louis' current 16-game win streak is keeping a lid on this price. In Woodruff's three starts vs. St. Louis this season, Milwaukee was favored -200, -185, and -175. We'll take the Brewers with their ace, Woodruff, in this near-PK'em game. |
|||||||
09-28-21 | Phillies +107 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta. The Phillies are in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they sit 2.5 games behind division-leading Atlanta heading into this 3-game series. The good news for the Phils is that ace Zack Wheeler will be on the mound tonight. The Cy Young candidate leads the league in innings (206 1/3) and strikeouts (240), and has allowed just 3 runs over his last 4 starts (1.15 ERA). In his last two starts vs. the Braves this season, Wheeler gave up just 1 run over 15 innings, and struck out 20. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has given up 12 runs (6 earned) in 17 2/3 innings vs. the Phillies. And his career ERA vs. them is 5.53. Atlanta is a wallet-busting 37-37 (minus 16.4 net games on the moneyline) at home this season, while Philly is 32-31 (+10 net games) as an underdog, and 49-34 (+15.8 net games) off a loss by more than 3 runs. Take Philadelphia. |
|||||||
09-27-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners 'over' the total. Things couldn't get much tighter in the AL Wild Card race and right in the thick of it are the A's and Mariners. These two teams are separated by just a game coming into the week and it could very well be that by the end of this series, one of them will be eliminated from the post-season. Not usually known for their offense, both of these teams have been flashing some prowess at the plate recently. The A's plated 20 runs in their weekend sweep of the Astros while the M's have gone 7-1 in their last eight games thanks in large part to their bats. That's not likely to change tonight with LHP Cole Irvin and RHP Chris Flexen heading to the mound for their teams. Irvin is 0-4 with a 7.56 ERA in four career starts vs. the Mariners covering 16 2/3 innings. For Flexen, he's been pretty solid lately, but in his last four home starts, the RHP has allowed 16 ER in 20 2/3 innings (a 6.95 ERA). The over is 7-2 in Seattle's last nine games as a favorite. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies 'under' the total. The Nationals are in the unusual situation of having absolutely nothing to play for in the final days of the season. There is, however, one player on the team who is going to be taking the last six games of the season very seriously and that is OF Juan Soto. Soto leads the league with a .324 BA and .473 OBP and he has a shot at the NL MVP. And in a strange way, opposing pitchers are helping Soto now because he is also leading the league in walks and with nothing else in the lineup to be concerned with, Soto may get at least two free passes every game for the rest of the season. Of course the Rockies have nothing to play for either, and their lineup is a shell of what it once was. There's always the Coors factor but it's hard to imagine a scenario where these two teams plate a bunch of runs regardless of where this game is played. The under is 5-1 in the Nats last six road games and 5-2 in the Rox last seven overall. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox bullpen had another meltdown last night, allowing the Yankees to come back and score four runs in the 8th inning to pull off the victory here in Boston. The Sox can ill afford to do that if they are to secure a Wild Card spot in the coming week. The Yanks will now go for the three-game road sweep tonight in the series finale -- and the final 2021 regular season game between these two rivals. It hasn't been the kind of season that LHP Eduardo Rodriguez hoped for. The veteran Boston southpaw has 11 wins which isn't too shabby, but he also has a 4.97 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 29 starts covering 146 2/3 innings. But E-Rod will feel a whole lot better about his season if he can help his team win tonight. The good news is that Rodriguez has been a Yankee-killer this season. In four 2021 starts vs. pinstripes covering 18 innings, E-Rod is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and even better is the fact that the Red Sox are 4-0 in those starts. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -112 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our AL East Division Game of the Week is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. NIck Pivetta has found out this season what life can be like as a Red Sox starter. His 9-7 ledger represents his most successful record since he came into the league four years ago but he also has an ERA approaching five runs (4.63). The former Phillies RHP will get his 29th start of the season this afternoon and it will be his second of the season vs. the Yanks -- his first at home. Pivetta has a 3-2 record with a 4.24 ERA in nine daytime starts this season (which outshines his record under the lights). The Yanks will go with LHP Nestor Cortes, Jr. The 26-year-old Cuban has been impressive and the Yankees have won three of his four starts this month. But those three were against the Rangers and Orioles (twice), so this afternoon will be a much tougher test in his first 2021 start vs. Boston. Despite their victory here last night, the Yankees are just 2-7 in the last nine games at Fenway. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-24-21 | Nationals v. Reds -176 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals. With just three wins in their last 10 games, the Reds are seeing their Playoff chances slip away. With less than 10 games left, they have to make the most of a series like this one -- four games against a Nats team that traded away most of its major pieces at the end of July. But DC drew first blood on Thursday, making this almost a must-win situation for the home team tonight. Despite their victory here last yesterday, the Nats are just 10-35 in their last 45 road games and 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Sonny Gray gets his 25th start of the season for the Reds tonight, and although things haven't gone the way he would have wanted in 2021, Gray is still a solid veteran RH, capable of delivering a victory on any given outing. In six career starts covering 35 innings vs. the Nationals, Gray is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Reds are also 27-12 in their last 39 games as a home favorite. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
At 2:10, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. With their victory here last night, the Cardinals' winning streak has now reached 11 games. The Brewers get one more crack at them this afternoon (they will play them again in St. Louis in five days). Their hopes for not getting swept in this four-game series will ride on the arm of RHP Adrian Houser. Overshadowed this season by Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, Houser has posted a 9-6 record with a solid 3.43 ERA in 26 games -- 24 starts -- covering 131 1/3 innings. In nine career games vs. the Cards -- six starts -- Houser is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in just over 35 innings. In two starts against them this season, Houser is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings, with nine hits allowed and 10 strikeouts. The last one was right here in Milwaukee on September 4 when Houser pitched a complete game shutout -- the first of his career -- in a 4-0 Brewers victory. The Crew is 6-0 in Houser's last six starts vs. teams with winning records. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -115 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games of this 4-game series to their division rivals, but I like them to bounce back behind lefty Brett Anderson tonight, on Wednesday. Anderson has a very good 3.04 career ERA vs. St. Louis, including a 1-run, 5-inning outing earlier this season at St. Louis. Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas' career ERA vs. Milwaukee is more than a run higher, at 4.29. And his road ERA this season is an ugly 8.59 (with a 2.04 WHIP). With the Brewers 72-43 their last 115 vs. righties, and 46-25 vs. NL Central foes, we'll take Craig Counsell's men on Wednesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-21-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -215 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -215 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The hottest team in baseball right now? It's the Cardinals who have won nine games in a row to put themselves in a somewhat comfortable position as the number two Wild Card. But the Brewers have unfinished business. They want to win the NL Central and they want to clinch it as soon as possible. They know what can happen in a Wild Card Playoff -- they've lost two in the last two seasons -- and really don't want to go there again. So, which starter is better to help them get their second pennant in the last four seasons than RH Brandon Woodruff? In 28 starts covering 169 1/3 innings, Woodruff is 9-9 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 4.71 K:BB ratio (198 strikeouts against 42 walks). In eight career games vs. the Cardinals (six starts), Woodruff is 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And the Brewers have won four of his six starts vs. St. Louis, including two of the last three. Woodruff has also done his best work at home this season, as he's 4-2 in front of the home faithful, but 5-7 on the road. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -255 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Yankees are likely pleased to see the Rangers coming to town for three games. Then again, they're probably happy to see anyone other than the Indians after the last two days as the Tribe put up 11 runs in consecutive games against New York over the weekend. With all of the struggles the Yanks have had in the second half, LHP Nestor Cortes, Jr. has been a ray of sunshine since he stepped into the Yankee rotation on July 4. In his 11 starts, the 26-year-old Cuban is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings. And the good news for start number 12 tonight is that Cortes is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 10 games (five starts) here at Yankee Stadium this season. In contrast, Cortes is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine games on the road. Tonight will be Cortes' first career start vs. the Rangers (he has made three relief appearances against them). Texas is 1-4 in the last five meetings with the Yankees here in the Bronx, and it's 27-68 (minus 22.7 net games) as a road underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-19-21 | Braves +112 v. Giants | Top | 3-0 | Win | 112 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants. This will be Max Fried's 4th career start against the Giants, and the Braves have won each of his first three, outscoring the Giants by an aggregate score of 23-8. But for those who have followed Fried's career, this 3-0 record won't come as a shock, as the Braves are a staggering 55-24 in his 79 starts. So, even though Fried and the Braves are an underdog here against the best team in baseball, we'll take Atlanta in this underdog role. One key stat for me in this game is that Fried will be working on an extra day of rest following Atlanta's 5-3 victory over Miami on Monday. And the Braves are 24-8 in Fried's 32 starts when he's been working on an extra day or two of rest. Anthony DeSclafani will get the ball for Gabe Kapler's Giants, but he's not had much success in his career vs. Atlanta (1-3, 4.85 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and he's had even less success this season in his daytime starts (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Padres +107 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. If you had heard at the beginning of the season that the game between the Padres and Cards on September 18 would be a match-up between RHPs Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright and that one of the two starters would be a favorite for the NL Cy Young, you would assume it was Darvish. But it's been the 40-year-old Cardinals ace who has had a career season, while Darvish has been a disappointment. However, Darvish can put all that behind him with a strong outing and a victory tonight which would help his club get closer to a Wild Card playoff spot. Ironically, it's the Cardinals -- among other teams -- that the Padres are battling with for that spot. We'll take San Diego tonight, as Darvish -- in six career starts vs. St. Louis covering 37 1/3 innings -- is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 49 strikeouts and nine walks. And here at Busch Stadium, Darvish sports a 2.25 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 12 innings. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-17-21 | White Sox -176 v. Rangers | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Texas Rangers. For the White Sox's Dylan Cease, 2021 has been like a roller coaster ride. The 25-year-old's road woes have been well documented by now. And, every now and then, the uber-talented Cease will throw in a total clunker of a start -- and sometimes even at home. His last outing was just such a clunker as Cease allowed seven runs in 2 2/3 innings at home against the Red Sox (his shortest start of the season). But after throwing a clunker, he tends to come back big in his next start. Counting last Saturday's disaster, Cease has had five outings in which he has allowed at least five runs in 5 1/3 innings or less. And in the previous four, Cease stepped up in his next start and was ultra-sharp and the Sox were victorious in all four of those follow-ups (while Cease went 3-0). The White Sox are also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Rangers. Take Chicago tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Reds -148 v. Pirates | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Reds RHP Tyler Mahle may not yet be a household name, but the 26-year-old has emerged as an ace and has a chance to finish in the top 15 in the NL Cy Young. In a full season of 29 starts, Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.73 ERA and he is currently ninth in strikeouts with 188 in his 159 1/3 innings. Start number 30 will come this afternoon against the Pirates and it's a big one as the Reds are desperately trying to climb back into second place in the NL Central and a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a team which Mahle has already beaten twice this season. In two starts vs. the Bucs, Mahle is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and 17 strikeouts vs. four walks in 12 1/3 innings. And one of those victories was right here at PNC Park. Despite the loss last night, the Reds are still 18-6 in the last 24 meetings with the Pirates. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-15-21 | Padres -102 v. Giants | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. After clinching its post-season berth two nights ago, the Giants followed up that win with a 6-1 victory over San Diego last night. But I expect San Francisco's win streak to come to a halt this evening, as San Diego has a distinct advantage on the mound. Padres righty Joe Musgrove will face off against San Francisco's Dominic Leone, who will serve as an "opener" in this game. Leone can be expected to toss 1 to 2 innings, while Musgrove will go much deeper in the game. Musgrove -- recently nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award for his work with the Challenged Athletes Foundation -- is having a terrific season. He already threw the first no-hitter in Padres history back in April. And his ERA over his last four starts is 2.05, while his WHIP is 1.02. And, notwithstanding the fact that they've lost five straight games, San Diego is still in the thick of the Wild Card race, with just 1 game separating the three leading contenders (Cardinals, Reds, Padres) for the final spot. Musgrove will be making this start on regular rest. And in his starts this season on regular rest, he has done his best work by far, with a 2.28 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-15-21 | Astros -202 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Those who thought that the Astros were an aging team who had lost significant players this season (Justin Verlander, George Springer) and that they might still be distracted from the fallout of the cheating scandal are perhaps eating their words right now. Houston is close to clinching yet another Division Title (it will be its fourth in the last five years) and the 'Stros also have a shot at finishing with the best record in the American League. The offense has been there all season, but you also have to give credit to a mostly young pitching staff for the job it's done. One of those young pitchers is 26-year-old RH Jose Urquidy. The third-year Major Leaguer has had some shoulder issues this season, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up some very impressive numbers. In 16 starts covering 84 2/3 innings, Urquidy is 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA. He's healthy now and looking to contribute through the playoffs. Houston is 38-19 in the last 57 meetings with Texas, and 120-64 (+19 games on the moneyline) vs. division rivals. And Urquidy is 2-0 in his starts vs. Texas with a 1.71 ERA. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-15-21 | Brewers -210 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -210 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Detroit Tigers. There has not been much that Brandon Woodruff has done wrong this season. But his last start was one of the rare instances where he pitched poorly. Woodruff surrendered 4 runs over six innings, and the Brewers wree shutout, 12-0, by the Philadelphia Phillies. Milwaukee rebounded off that shutout loss to win five straight games until they were shutout last night, 1-0, by the Detroit Tigers. I expect the Brewers and Woodruff to bounce back this afternoon against Detroit, and its righty starter, Matt Manning. Manning has a 7.10 ERA over his last three starts, and his ERA for the season is an ugly 6.13, including 6.75 in the daytime. In contrast, Woodruff's daytime ERA is a spectacular 1.87, and the Brewers are 39-19 their last 58 day games (+16.1 games on the moneyline). They're also an eye-popping 77-18 (+36.1 net games) as a favorite priced at -200 (or more). Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-14-21 | Red Sox -134 v. Mariners | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox were relying on Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the season and now with Chris Sale having tested positive for COVID, they really need the veteran righty to step up. This 2021 season just may have be Eovaldi's best since coming into the Majors as he was elected to his first-ever All Star game. But the 31-year-old is still not considered an MLB ace by almost any measurement. And that's probably just fine with with the hurler, as in 28 starts covering 163 2/3 innings, Eovaldi is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Eovaldi's 1.6 walk rate is currently the best such number in the Majors. And the Red Sox are 4-0 in Eovaldi's last four starts on grass. The Mariners will go with LHP Tyler Anderson and the veteran southpaw is just 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA in 26 starts covering 148 innings between his old team -- the Pirates -- and the Mariners. Finally, the Red Sox are 12-7 in their last 19 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. Things have gone from bad to worse for the New York Yankees. In the recently concluded Subway Series over the weekend, they were only able to win one of the three games. Now they come back to the Bronx for a single game against the Twins, which is a re-scheduling of the final game of a four game series back in August due to Hurricane Henri coming ashore. The home team will hand the ball to 23-year-old rookie RHP Luis Gil for his fifth start of the season. Gil has done nothing to dissuade the Yanks from keeping him in the rotation next season. In four starts covering 19 innings, Gil is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 24 strikeouts (an 11.4 K rate). The walks have been a bit high, but that's to be expected in Gil's first Major League campaign. He'll match up against RHP John Gant, who was hit hard by the Bronx Bombers the last time he faced them, back on August 19 (4 runs in 3 1/3 innings). This has been a very one-sided series as the Twins are 22-68 in the last 90 meetings overall and just 11-43 in the last 54 here at Yankee Stadium (including 0-3 this year by an aggregate 24-8 score). And the Yankees are 37-13 at home in games projected to be high scoring (with Totals at 10 runs (or higher)). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-12-21 | Reds -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. The St. Louis Cardinals have been a dominant Major League franchise which has made the post-season in seven of the last 10 seasons. That's a proud tradition and one that is not lost on the minds of the Cards' staff and their fans. And if you want to find the last losing season for the Cards you have to go all the way back to 2007 when St. Louis went just 78-84. They beat the Reds last night but tonight Cincy will be sending RHP Sonny Gray to the mound to try to stop the bleeding. Gray seems to be putting it all together this season with a 7-6 record and 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 22 starts covering 113 2/3 innings. The Reds are 8-4 in the last 12 meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings here in St. Louis. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck....Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Red Sox v. White Sox -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Boston Red Sox. Two veteran starters were scheduled to face off against each other this afternoon in Chicago. And while Lance Lynn will fulfill his obligation, Boston's Chris Sale apparently will not. Lynn is going to make his first start back from a knee injury, and while Sale had looked very good upon his return from Tommy John surgery, the 32-year-old southpaw has now tested positive for COVID 19 and will not make his sixth start. Lynn, on the other hand, appears ready to rejoin a team which has had recent struggles with the rotation so his presence on the mound today should be a welcome sight. In 24 starts covering 135 2/3 innings, Lynn is 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He is likely champing at the bit to go out this afternoon to show the team what he still has, especially against a team like the Red Sox. The road has not been friendly to Boston lately as the Sox are 6-15 in their last 22 games away from Fenway Park. Take Chicago. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves -260 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins. It would be hard for Max Fried to duplicate his numbers from last season. In the shortened 2020 campaign Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts covering 56 innings. Despite the fact that he's lost some starts in 2021 -- and he wasn't selected as an All Star like 2020 -- Fried has still has had a pretty dominant campaign this year. In 24 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old southpaw is 11-7 with a 3.42 ERA. And his 3.49 K:BB ratio is way ahead of his 2020 number. Start number 25 will come this afternoon against the Marlins, a team he's already faced three times this season. In Fried's 10 career starts vs. the Marlins going back to the 2017 season, the Braves are 7-3. Moreover, the Marlins are 18-45 in the last 63 meetings and 17-35 in the last 52 in Atlanta. Take the Braves. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Yankees -114 v. Mets | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the New York Mets. No doubt both of these teams would like to forget that they are struggling mightily at the moment with the Mets looking like they will be out of the post-season and the Yankees trying desperately to hold on to a Wild Card spot with the red-hot Jays breathing down their neck. Two weeks ago, the Yankees looked like world-beaters, as they were on a 13-game win streak. We had our biggest play of the season-to-date against New York in that game, and Oakland snapped the Yankees' long win streak. Dating back to that loss, New York has now lost 11 of 13 games, and they look nothing like world-beaters right now. But things can turn around fast in sports. The Yankees will hand the ball to veteran RHP Corey Kluber tonight who will try to channel the form that resulted in a no-hitter back on May 19 in Texas. He couldn't beat the O's his last time out, but the good news is that throughout his career, Kluber has been one of the most dominant inter-league performers we've seen. In 29 starts vs. teams from the NL, Kluber is 15-9 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 184 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Mets are a poor 42-69 (-18.5 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 or less. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-10-21 | Angels v. Astros -190 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Anaheim Angels. Shohei Ohtani will surely win the American League MVP Award at season's end. After all, he has 43 home runs at the plate, and a 9-1 record with a 2.97 ERA on the mound. But we'll go against Ohtani tonight in Houston, as the Astros are a jaw-dropping 70-20 at home vs. division rivals. The Astros have also dominated the better pitchers here at Minute Maid Park, as they're 34-12 their last 46 vs. pitchers who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start. Moreover, they're 19-5 vs. AL pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better). This will be Ohtani's 4th career start vs. Houston, and the Angels have lost each of the first three. Even worse, Anaheim has been outscored 72-34 by the Astros in the 12 games played thus far this season. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves -208 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. Huascar Ynoa has faced the Nationals twice already this season, and he held them without an earned run in each game (12 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB). He'll match up against Washington's RHP, Erick Fedde, who has had virtually no success in his career vs. Atlanta. He's made six starts against the Braves, and has an 0-4 record, with an ERA of 11.02, and a WHIP of 2.44. Fedde took the mound last month here, in Atlanta, and surrendered 8 hits over 4 2/3 innings, in an 8-4 defeat. The Nationals are a dreadful 26-57 (minus 18.8 games on the moneyline) as an underdog this season, and 2-9 their last 11 off a win. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -181 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies. When the Phillies desperately needed starting pitching help for the stretch drive, they got it from an unlikely source. The youngster who stepped up was none other than a somewhat obscure 26-year-old Venezuelan southpaw reliever by the name of Ranger Suarez and he hasn't looked back so far in seven starts. In 72 total innings this season, Suarez has logged an unreal 1.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and in those seven starts covering 31 2/3 innings, the ERA isn't much higher at 1.77. But perhaps more important for tonight is the fact that Suarez is 5-0 here at home vs. just 1-4 on the road so clearly Citizens Bank Park has agreed with him. This will be his first career start against the Rockies, however in one relief outing covering three innings against them, Suarez was solid, allowing no earned runs on three hits. The Rockies are 15-47 in their last 62 games as a road underdog and they are also 0-4 in their last four tries here in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. For LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. and the New York Yankees, the third time just might be the charm. The 26-year-old Cuban southpaw was originally drafted by the Yanks out of Hialeah High School back in 2013 and he signed with them later that year. But when Cortes wasn't placed on New York's 40-man-roster a few years later, the Orioles picked him up by way of the Rule 5 draft in 2017. He was then returned to New York from Baltimore as part of another deal in 2018. But his second stint in pinstripes didn't last long as Cortes was shipped off to Seattle before becoming a free agent and re-signing again with the Yanks this January. And New York seems glad to have him back for a third time as Cortes has been a huge help in a rotation that's been scuffling in the second half. In nine starts, Cortes is 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and more importantly, the Yankees are 7-2 in those starts. Take the Yankees. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Mets -166 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -166 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
|
|||||||
09-09-21 | Dodgers -157 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -157 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the LA Dodgers over St. Louis. Tony Gonsolin will make his return today after being shelved for shoulder inflammation. He's expected to throw 3 innings, and 50 or so pitches, before giving way to the Dodgers' league-leading bullpen. Jake Woodford will take the mound for the Redbirds, and he's been largely ineffective in his starts this year. His ERA is almost 6 runs per game (5.93), while his WHIP is a bloated 1.68. The Dodgers are 9-0 their last nine off a loss, and I look for them to bounce back off yesterday's 1-run defeat. Take Los Angeles. |
|||||||
09-08-21 | Angels v. Padres -260 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Angels. Yu Darvish will get the ball for the Padres tonight, and he'll be looking to help the Padres bounce back from last night's 4-0 loss. Improbably, the Padres (and starter) Blake Snell, had no-hit the Angels through 6 2/3 innings. But the Angels broke through with 2 runs in the 7th, and tacked on 2 runs in the 9th for the win. San Diego managed just three hits in the game, but falls into a great situation tonight. Major League teams are 57-7 their last 64 when favored by -200 (or more) if they didn't get an extra base hit in their previous game. Combine that with the fact that Darvish is 9-3 in his career vs. the Angels, with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Padres as a big home favorite this evening. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-08-21 | Rays v. Red Sox +100 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The good news for Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is that he has racked up 10 wins this season. And even when he's not picking up a W, the Sox are still winning when Eovaldi goes to the mound. They are 4-1 in his last five starts dating back to August 11, a game in which Boston defeated this Rays squad, 20-8. And they're 6-1 his last seven home starts. In fact, in two previous starts vs. Tampa here at Fenway Park this season, Eovaldi is 2-0 and has allowed just two runs on six hits in 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and four walks. And the combined score of those two victories was 29-10. Meanwhile, the Rays are 0-4 in Shane McClanahan's last four road starts against winning teams. And they've lost those four games by 2.75 runs per game. So, even though Tampa has had Boston's number in this series, we'll take the Red Sox to win the 3rd game of this 3-game set. Take Boston. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Luis Gil is a 23-year-old rookie pitcher from the Dominican Republic who has gone from relative obscurity to being an important piece of the New York Yankees stretch drive in a virtual blink of an eye. The Yanks' rotation is in a bit of disarray right now so they need to get the train back on the tracks and that includes giving starts to the talented RHP Gil. In three starts covering 15 2/3 innings, Gil is 1-0 and -- most importantly -- has yet to be scored on. So tonight, he will be on the hill against a Blue Jays team which easily defeated New York and its ace, Gerrit Cole last night, 5-1. But the Yankees are a super 26-13 at home when priced +125 to -125. And they're also 69-41 (+14 net games on the moneyline) off 4+ losses, and 309-200 (+40 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
09-07-21 | White Sox v. A's -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Chicago White Sox. The A's will be looking to bounce back off a forgettable series in Toronto where they gave up 29 runs over three games. The good news for Bob Melvin's men tonight is that righty James Kaprielian will be on the mound. The rookie is 7-4 this season with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. And at home, those numbers improve to 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He'll face another rookie tonight in Chicago's Jimmy Lambert (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who will make his 3rd start of the season after facing the Indians in his first two. Chicago is an awful 35-61 (minus 20.2 net games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 (or less), including 9-24 its last 33 on the road. Meanwhile, the A's are 45-17 vs. AL Central opponents, and 91-46 (+20.9 net games) as a home favorite. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros -209 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. With 23 starts now on his ledger for 2021, you could say this is a career season for Houston RH Lance McCullers, Jr. -- at least in terms of durability. The oft-injured 27-year-old never had more than 22 starts before this season, and one more win would also give McCullers a career high in that category as well (2018; 10-6). In those 23 starts covering just over 132 innings, McCullers is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a 10.5 strikeout rate. This will be his fourth start of the year vs. the M's, and in his three previous, McCullers has gone 2-0 with a very nice 3.18 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings. His career numbers vs. Seattle are arguably even better: 9-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 17 starts covering 97 innings. Heading into this series, the Mariners are 14-37 in the last 51 meetings and 20-45 in the last 65 in Houston. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-06-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. Thanks to an unlikely performance by the Baltimore Orioles -- they took two of three from the Yanks in the Bronx -- the Red Sox have climbed to within a half-game of New York in the standings. Of course the Sox did their part as well this weekend, taking two of three from the Indians. Now they have southpaw ace Chris Sale going in Game 1 of this critical series against the Rays. Sale has done little wrong after returning from his recovery from Tommy John surgery. In four starts covering 21 1/3 innings, Sale is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 24 strikeouts vs. only five walks. Sale is likely still building up his arm strength and it's a scary thought that he might only be 70% or so of where he can eventually get back to. And Sale's career record vs. the Rays is another reason why Boston can be optimistic today. In 21 games vs. Tampa (19 starts) covering 128 1/3 innings, Sale is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Take the Red Sox. |
|||||||
09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -128 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees went into their weekend series likely thinking what a great opportunity it was to add three more notches in the win column. After all, they were playing the lowly Orioles at home and after a Friday night victory, the sweep must have seemed close enough to reach out and grab. And perhaps that was precisely the problem and the reason why New York dropped the next two games. Now the Yanks come into this four game set against the Jays probably feeling like they have to win at least three if they're going to have any chance of catching the Rays. RHP Jameson Taillon takes his 8-5 record and 4.44 ERA into his 27th start this afternoon. The Yanks have won eight of his last nine starts going back to the beginning of the second half. The Jays are also 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Yankees, and 8-18 in their last 26 here in the Bronx. Take the Yankees. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Big Al McMordie MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
05-13-22 | Brewers -142 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
05-12-22 | Mets -152 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
05-10-22 | Rays -115 v. Angels | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
05-09-22 | Rays +122 v. Angels | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
05-09-22 | Rangers v. Yankees -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Nationals v. Angels -180 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Mets -141 v. Phillies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Blue Jays -157 v. Guardians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Brewers +109 v. Braves | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
05-05-22 | Twins -133 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -139 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Angels -118 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Braves v. Mets -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
05-01-22 | Phillies v. Mets -170 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
05-01-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -180 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
04-30-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
04-29-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
04-29-22 | Mariners -110 v. Marlins | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
04-25-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
04-24-22 | Mets -160 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
04-23-22 | Brewers +135 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
04-22-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -180 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -123 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets -128 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers -122 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Astros -111 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Astros +101 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -114 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
10-23-21 | Dodgers -145 v. Braves | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -130 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -211 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -211 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Astros +113 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 113 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
10-19-21 | Astros +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-2 | Win | 115 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -172 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Astros +108 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -126 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Dodgers -105 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 43 m | Show |
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
10-11-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -115 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -146 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -217 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -217 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10-02-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -250 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
09-30-21 | Rays v. Astros -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Rays +120 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Brewers +105 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +101 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
09-28-21 | A's -116 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
09-28-21 | Brewers -114 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
09-28-21 | Phillies +107 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
09-27-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -112 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Nationals v. Reds -176 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -115 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
09-21-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -215 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -215 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -255 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Braves +112 v. Giants | Top | 3-0 | Win | 112 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Padres +107 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
09-17-21 | White Sox -176 v. Rangers | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Reds -148 v. Pirates | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
09-15-21 | Padres -102 v. Giants | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
09-15-21 | Astros -202 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
09-15-21 | Brewers -210 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -210 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Red Sox -134 v. Mariners | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Reds -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Red Sox v. White Sox -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves -260 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Yankees -114 v. Mets | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
09-10-21 | Angels v. Astros -190 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves -208 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -181 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Mets -166 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -166 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Dodgers -157 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -157 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Angels v. Padres -260 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Rays v. Red Sox +100 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
09-07-21 | White Sox v. A's -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros -209 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -128 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 23 m | Show |