Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-23 | Cubs -130 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals. The Nats come off of a weekend series against the surprising Pirates that featured a Saturday twin bill in which the Pirates outscored Washington, 22-4 over the two games. But Washington came back Sunday and got a rare victory. Certainly, the 2023 Nationals are a far cry from the 2018 team which won the World Series, and their re-building process will likely take several years. Tonight, they will welcome another surprising NL Central team in the Cubs. LHP Drew Smyly had been all but forgotten, but the 33-year-old has found new life in Chicago, and is pitching as well as he ever has. Over five starts, Smyly is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 27 Ks and six BBs in 28 IP. LH MacKenzie Gore will get the start for the Nats. We'll take Chicago, as the Cubs are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. teams that start a southpaw pitcher. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-30-23 | Yankees -118 v. Rangers | Top | 2-15 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. The man they call "Nasty Nestor" in the Bronx burst on the scene last season. The LHP had been in the league since 2018, but 2022 was a breakout campaign for Nestor Cortes as the southpaw went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 28 starts covering just over 158 innings and that included a complete game shutout -- albeit the seven inning variety -- in the first game of a double-header on June 2. He's just five starts into his 2023 campaign, but so far Cortes seems intent on proving that last season was no fluke as he is 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and his 5.60 K:BB ratio is the best of his career so far. Start number six will come this afternoon against the Rangers and if there's one thing Cortes likes, it's pitching in the afternoon. In 35 daytime appearances -- 17 starts -- the 28 year old is 9-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Despite the loss yesterday the Yankees are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings with the Rangers. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-23 | Phillies v. Astros -120 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies. Less than a month into the 2022 season, Astros' talented RHP Cristian Javier assumed a full-time starting job. Since that time, the 26-year-old Dominican has pitched like he has no desire whatsoever to return to a bullpen role. In his 25 starts last season, Javier was 11-8 with a sparkling 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 179 strikeouts in just over 149 innings. And so far in 2023, Javier has set out to show that last season was no fluke. In five starts covering 29 innings, Javier has posted a 2-0 record with a 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a K:BB ratio of 4.83. But never was Javier better than in last year's World Series against this Phillies club. In Game 4 on the road, Javier threw six near-perfect innings on the way to an Astros no-hit 5-0 victory. He'll try to duplicate that effort this evening -- this time at home where Javier has a career record of 14-6 with a 2.55 ERA in 44 games (25 starts). Despite the loss yesterday, the 'Stros are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. the NL East. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-23 | Braves -136 v. Mets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. For the Atlanta Braves, the 1-2 punch of starters Max Fried and Spencer Strider is quickly establishing itself as the top duo in the NL -- if not all of the Majors. And while it's Strider and his strikeouts that may be grabbing most of the headlines, it's the 29-year-old southpaw Fried who appears to be making a statement after finishing second in the Cy Young voting last season. Although Fried has only one victory on his ledger so far, he also sports a 0.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in three starts covering 15 IP coming into this first 2023 meeting between the Braves and Mets. Fried has more career victories against the Mets (7) than any other opponent and he also has a 2.78 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to go with it. The Braves have been deadly on the road this season with a 10-2 record away from Atlanta vs. just 7-7 at home. Atlanta is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Mets while New York is 17-35 in its last 52 games vs. teams with a winning pct. above .600. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-23 | Royals v. Twins -190 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Kansas City Royals. Not that long ago, Zack Greinke was among the best pitchers in the game. Those days are over now and with the 39-year-old RHP on a 1-year contract, it's quite likely that Greinke will finish his career with the same team he started it with. That's no doubt bittersweet for Greinke who would probably like to get one more crack at a title, but he won't get it with this version of the Royals. KC is terrible and it could be a while before Greinke gets a W as he is 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA in his first five starts covering 27 1/3 IP. He and the Royals will face a very good Twins club tonight with RH Tyler Mahle going to the mound. The 28-year-old is just 1-2 but has a very nice 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his four starts covering just under 22 innings. In three career games vs. the Royals -- two starts -- Mahle is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. The Royals are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Twins coming into this series and 15-37 in the last 52 here at Target Field. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -200 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Detroit Tigers. After getting swept by the Orioles in three games in Baltimore over the weekend, the Tigers now find themselves in the unlikely position of getting a sweep of their own with a victory today in Milwaukee. But it won't be easy as Freddy Peralta goes to the mound for the home team. The 26-year-old RHP looked like he might be the second-best pitcher in the Brewers rotation (after Corbin Burnes) when he moved into his full-time starting role in 2021 -- making the NL All Star team that season. But injuries set in and 2022 became a lost season as he managed just 17 starts and 78 IP. Now healthy once again, the Brewers need Peralta to step up, especially considering how thin their starting pitching is with the injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser. Peralta is answering the call so far with a 3.79 ERA and 23 Ks and 9 BBs in four starts covering 22 2/3 innings. In 44 daytime games (30 starts) Peralta is 14-8 with a 3.34 ERA (vs. 4.14 in 76 games under the lights). Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-23 | Nationals v. Mets -200 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. The Mets have announced Jose Butto will get the start in today's game. Butto was effective in his first start of the year, nine days ago. He allowed just 1 run over five innings to the Oakland A's, and the Mets won, 4-3. He'll match up against Josiah Gray, who has lost his last nine decisions dating back to last season's All-Star Break. And his teams have gone 6-15 in his last 21 starts. The Mets come into tonight's game off back-to-back losses to the Giants. But New York is 51-22 (+22.5 net games) off a loss, while Washington is a wallet-busting 18-61 (minus 27.3 net games) vs. division rivals. Take the Mets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -153 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Detroit Tigers. It's not too surprising that the Brewers are in second place in the NL Central with a solid 15-7 record. What is extremely surprising is that the team they're looking up at is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are a half-game ahead of Milwaukee in first place. In fact, if not for the most surprising team in the Majors, the Brewers would have the top record in the NL. They go from one inter-league series to another tonight as they welcome a team with which they're pretty familiar in the Tigers. Detroit comes in having just gotten swept by the Orioles in Baltimore. To say the Tigers have a weak lineup would be quite the under-statement. They come into this with the worst team batting average in the Majors -- one which is barely over the Mendoza Line at .209. And despite the exploits of Eduardo Rodriguez on Sunday -- a perfect game through 6 2/3 IP -- their pitching is horrific as well. Milwaukee is 7-0 in its last seven games following a loss while Detroit is 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Crew here. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-23 | Blue Jays -124 v. Yankees | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Jays and Yanks went scoreless for 7 1/2 innings before New York took a 2-0 lead and then Toronto tied it in the top of ninth yesterday. A rare clunker from Jays closer Jordan Romano resulted in a walk-off win for the Yanks. Speaking of clunkers, normally reliable Jays veteran RH starter Kevin Gausman threw one in his last start in Houston, Monday, allowing eight runs (seven earned) in 4 2/3 innings in an ugly loss. We'll look for Gausman to get back to his normal dominant self this afternoon against the Yanks and Clarke Schmidt. New York is giving the 27-year-old RH a chance at the rotation early on but so far, it hasn't worked out. In four starts covering 14 1/3 IP, Schmidt is 0-1 with an ugly 8.79 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Gausman, meanwhile, has a 3.75 ERA in 93 career day appearances. He also owns a very nice 3.54 ERA in 14 games -- 11 starts -- here at Yankee Stadium. And Toronto's 13-7 its last 20 meetings here, in the Bronx. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-23 | Nationals v. Twins -270 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -270 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Washington Nationals. Pablo Lopez was a hard-luck loser in his last start, as the Twins fell, 2-0, to Gerrit Cole (0.95 ERA) and the New York Yankees. Lopez did take a back seat to Cole in that match-up, but the reality is that few pitchers in baseball have been more effective thus far than Lopez. In four starts, the Twins' righty has a 1.73 ERA, with a 0.80 WHIP. And his K:BB ratio is 33:6. He'll face Chad Kuhl this afternoon, which is a highly-favorable match-up for Minnesota. Kuhl's teams (Rockies, Nats) have lost his last seven starts, and 12 of his last 13, dating back to last season's All-Star Break. And he's dropped his last 7 decisions. This year, in three starts, he's 0-1 (the Nats are 0-3), with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. In Kuhl's career, his teams have gone 1-8 when he's been a road underdog of +200 (or more), and 8-30 in his road starts when the O/U line was less than 9 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins have dominated as a favorite of -200 (or more), as they're 12-2 (+7.9 net games) their last 14, and 120-37 (+33.7 net games) their last 157. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-23 | Nationals v. Twins -205 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -205 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Nationals. The Twins come home after a tough road trip to the Bronx and Boston and they have to like the look of things on the horizon as seven out of the 10 games on this homestand are against the Nationals (5-13) and Royals (4-15). Minnesota held its own for the most part against the Yankees and Red Sox, going 3-4 over those seven road games. One of the better interleague teams in the AL, the Twins have to be licking their chops to get a piece of the Nats, who are a shell of the 2018 team which won DC's only World Series since the old Washington Senators. 28-year-old RHP Tyler Mahle gets the ball for the Twins. The former Reds starter drew a tough assignment in Yankee Stadium in his last start, but hung in there for 4 1/3 innings. He's familiar with the Nats from his days in the NL, posting a 3-1 record and 4.50 ERA in five career starts, covering 24 IP vs. them. Minny is 5-0 in its last five inter-league home games vs. teams with a losing record, and it's 43-17 (+16.7 net games) as a home favorite. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-23 | Blue Jays -121 v. Astros | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. When Kevin Gausman came to the Blue Jays after stops in Baltimore, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Francisco, his expectations for a title were the highest since he came into the league 10 years ago. And although he had one of his best seasons ever in 2022 (12 wins, a 3.35 ERA, and a league-leading 7.32 K:BB ratio), the veteran RHP was still sent packing after the first round of the post-season. We're just three starts into 2023, but the 32-year-old may finally be having the Cy Young-caliber campaign of which so many thought he was capable. And with a little help from his teammates, it may also mean a trip to the World Series. Over 20 innings, Gausman has a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 25 Ks and only three BBs. Start No. 4 will come against the champion Astros, who are not off to a great start, missing their leader Jose Altuve (thumb) and the dominant pitching they had last season. Gausman beat the 'Stros in his only start vs. them last season (7 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 0 BB). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-23 | Twins +147 v. Yankees | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the New York Yankees. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has never won a Cy Young award -- he's finished second in the voting twice -- and if he wanted to send a message early on that this is his year, he couldn't have done it any better than he has so far. But despite a 3-0 record and an ERA well under two runs, the starter who's opposing him this afternoon actually has a better ERA, and pitches for a team with a better record. The Twins are no doubt thrilled that they traded AL batting champ Luis Arraez, and in exchange got 27-year-old ace RH Pablo Lopez, along with a couple of solid minor league players. His early season success notwithstanding, today is Lopez's chance to shine on the big stage against one of the game's best. And there's every reason to believe he'll pull it off as he is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.35 ERA in three starts so far. In his only previous start vs. the Yanks, Lopez threw six strong innings, allowing just one run on seven hits. Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight road games vs. teams with a RH starter. And the Yankees have gone 11-12 (minus 11.4 net games) in his last 23 daytime starts. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-23 | Angels -104 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels with Tyler Anderson over the Boston Red Sox and Nick Pivetta. 2022 was a breakout season for Anderson, as he made the All-Star team for the first time. The southpaw's ERA over 30 appearances (28 starts) for the Los Angeles Dodgers was 2.57. Still, the Dodgers allowed him to get away this past off-season, and sign with Angels. He's off to a decent start this season, as Anaheim has won both of his starts, including a 6-0 shutout of Oakland, and a 9-5 triumph over Toronto. Anderson comes into this day game with 2 extra days of rest following that game vs. the Blue Jays, while Pivetta is starting on regular rest. In his last 36 starts with an extra day or two of rest, Anderson's teams have gone 26-10. Even better, in his career starts vs. Boston, Anderson's ERA is 2.08, while Pivetta's ERA in his career starts vs. Anaheim is 4.91. Take the Angels. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Houston Astros. What the Astros did in Games 4 and 5 was certainly impressive. Down two games to one with the next two games in a hostile environment, the visitors threw a no-hitter in Game 4 on Wednesday, and followed that up with a gutsy, 3-2 victory on Thursday to take control of the series as they head home. So now it's the Phillies with their proverbial backs against the wall in Houston and they will answer tonight with RHP Zack Wheeler who has a 2.67 ERA this post-season in five starts. He has a chance for revenge tonight as this is the exact same scenario as Game 2 when Wheeler faced Astros LH Framber Valdez here at Minute Maid Park (the 'Stros won that game, 5-2). Wheeler has a chance to build off of that effort to force a seventh and deciding game here on Sunday. The Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games following an off-day and 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
At 2:37 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Padres and Phillies played another dramatic game last night with the home team finally prevailing after a see-saw battle. The 10-6 win by the Phillies now gives them a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a chance to seal the deal at home tonight before the venue switches back to San Diego. These two got the bats out early on Saturday and Game 4 went easily over the total. Although the starting pitching is significantly stronger this afternoon with Game 1 starters RH Yu Darvish and RH Zack Wheeler taking the mound, you can expect more of the same as both bullpens were heavily used last night in the slugfest. The Phillies called on six relievers after starter Bailey Falter lasted just 2/3 inning and San Diego sent five out from their bullpen after starter Mike Clevinger failed to record an out. Wheeler has struggled in day games this season, going 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA in nine afternoon starts vs. 8-2 and 2.05 in 17 starts under the lights. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. The two unlikeliest of opponents will meet in the NLCS as Wild Card teams the Phillies and Padres clash in a best-of-seven affair for a trip to the World Series. It would've been almost impossible to imagine that the Padres would have home field advantage in the Championship Series but yet here we are at Petco Park for Game 1. The Padres are also fortunate in that things lined up for their veteran RH ace, Yu Darvish to start things off on five days of rest. Darvish has done little wrong in his two 2022 post-season starts so far, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 11 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. In two starts vs. the Phils during the regular season, Darvish allowed three runs in 13 innings (a 2.08 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Anything close to that tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park should get the job done. The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games immediately following one or more off-days. And Darvish's teams are 29-13 when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers had an historic season, as they outscored their foes by 334 runs in the regular season -- tied for 3rd in the modern era (behind the 1939 Yankees and 1927 Yankees). Yet, after its 2-1 defeat last night, Los Angeles finds itself 1 loss away from an ignominious end to an otherwise great season. Tonight, Los Angeles will hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Anderson, while San Diego will go with its ace, Joe Musgrove. But even though Musgrove has been an All Star, and has thrown a no-hitter, he's never notched a win against the Dodgers. He's made nine starts for the Pirates and Padres vs. LA, but is 0-6 in those nine starts (his teams are 2-7), with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Anderson has had much better success for San Diego, as he's gone 6-3 in 14 starts, with an ERA of 2.46, and a WHIP of 1.06. With LA a super 31-13 following a game where it scored less than 2 runs, we'll take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. After an historic loss in Game 1, one had to wonder if the Mariners would get blown out in Game 2 in Houston on Thursday. But they fought hard, and even held a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning before succumbing by a 4-2 margin. So rather than looking at the glass as half-empty at this point, Seattle's takeaway from its 0-2 deficit should be that it could just as easily be up 2-0 in this series. The Mariners will go with one of their many young stars on the mound today in 24-year-old RH rookie George Kirby. Kirby finished the regular season 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts covering 135 innings. This will be Kirby's first post-season start (he had a relief appearance in the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays) but all indications are that he's up for the challenge. Kirby's only start vs. the Astros in the regular season was decent -- two runs on four hits in four innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Seattle is 11-4 in Kirby's last 15 starts since the beginning of July. And it's 47-38 (but +23.7 net games) off back to back losses. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have their backs against the wall today, as they must win, or their season will be over. The good news is that their pitcher, Charlie Morton, has been exceptional in his career in elimination games. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in such games. That bodes well for Atlanta this afternoon. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for Philly, and this will be just his 3rd start over the last five weeks. He was relegated to the bullpen in September following a 4-game stretch where his ERA was 6.14 and his WHIP was 1.50 over that four starts. But Syndergaard was tabbed for this start over Bailey Falter, who gave up 6 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start vs. Atlanta. The Braves already bounced back from a loss in this series to win Game 2, and they're now 41-19 (+14.2 net games) off a loss this season. Take the Braves to level this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:37 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS by a 5-3 score and then the Padres responded in kind, taking a 5-3 decision on Wednesday behind Yu Darvish to even this series at 1-1. Now the series switches to San Diego for Games 3 and 4. The Padres are taking a calculated risk by starting LH Blake Snell tonight instead of RH Joe Musgrove. That's the same order they used in the three games against the Mets, but almost anyone would agree that Musgrove is a betting pitcher than Snell, who went 8-10 in 24 starts in a season that had its share of injuries. The Padres are basically gambling that they can win tonight and then have Musgrove available to close this series out in a Game 4 scenario. The problem is that in three starts vs. L.A. this season, Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Dodgers will go with RH Tony Gonsolin who is a leading candidate for NL Cy Young with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 24 starts. L.A. is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego, and 85-40 its last 125 vs. lefties. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's pitching was on display when it successfully swept the Tampa Bay Rays at home in two games to advance to the ALDS. In those two games, the Rays managed just one total run on seven hits -- and that was in 24 innings as Game 2 went 15 before the Guardians ended it with a walk-off. But any dreams by fans that they might be able to do the same thing in this series could be quickly dashed. The Yankees have a more potent offense than that of Tampa and they will open up this series in the Bronx where they've gone 57-24 this season while scoring a league-leading 419 runs (5.17 runs per game). Although you could argue that Nestor Cortes has been their best starter, the Yanks will open up with #1 RH Gerrit Cole. The 32-year-old had another outstanding season, going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts covering 200 2/3 innings. The Guardians are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 23-49 in the last 72 match-ups at Yankee Stadium. And they're a woeful 8-16 (minus 13.4 net games) off a shutout win. Finally, New York's 49-11 +18.5 net games) as a home favorite of -200+. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:37 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. In the upset of the post-season so far -- with the Padres being the runners-up -- the Mariners swept past the Blue Jays in Toronto to now face their division rvals in the ALDS. But now the hill gets much steeper as they face the defending AL champs. But there's a big difference between this season's version of the 'Stros and the one from 2021. Last year, as Houston was getting ready to begin the playoffs, it was doing so without veteran RH Justin Verlander. Twelve months later and Verlander is not only back, but he's a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, having gone 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 175 innings. And Verlander's post-season numbers -- while not at that level -- are pretty darn good (14-11; 3.40 in 31 games). But most important is this: Houston is 11-1 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Seattle, while the Mariners are 3-4 in Logan Gilbert's seven starts vs. Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, ours selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. With their backs against the proverbial wall on Saturday night at home, the Mets won Game 2. With all the talk about the Mets' starting pitching, San Diego's rotation has matched them so far -- and then some. And it must feel pretty good to have a guy as good as Joe Musgrove ready to go in your #3 position. The 29-year-old RH gets the ball tonight for his eighth post-season appearance (and first post-season start ever. Many would argue that he's the best pitcher on the team, with a no-hitter on his resume last season and a darn good campaign in 2022 as well. In 30 starts this season, Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 184 strikeouts in 181 innings. In 14 road starts this season, Musgrove was 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. The Padres also went 6-3 in Musgrove's last nine regular season starts going back to August 20. Despite the loss in Game 2, the Padres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to June 7. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. With a devasting home loss to the Padres on Friday night, the Mets will turn to ace Jacob deGrom tonight in a must-win Game 2. Max Scherzer didn't have anything and Yu Darvish had everything in a stunning game that put the Mets in a big hole. But this is no time to panic, especially with the man considered by most to be the best pitcher in the game set to start for the home team tonight. 34-year-old RH deGrom didn't begin his 2022 campaign until August due to a shoulder issue, but when he finally made it to the mound, he was mostly lights out. deGrom finished the regular season with a 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a ridiculous 12.75 K:BB ratio (102 strikeouts and only eight walks in 64 1/3 innings). In his post-season career, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings. And in 10 career starts against the Padres covering 70 1/3 innings, deGrom is 6-3 with a 1.28 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. How good does it feel to be the Mariners right now? They upset the Blue Jays in Game 1 on Friday -- shut them out 4-0 as a matter of fact -- and now they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner ready to go tonight. And he's pitching against his former team to boot. But before we move Seattle ahead in the AL brackets, let's consider a few things. First, there's the fact that the M's were one of the worst-hitting teams in the league this year (.230 overall), and after the All Star break they hit a paltry .221 -- tied for the worst number in the Majors with the Marlins. Second is the fact that LHP Robbie Ray did not perform all that well away from Seattle this season. In 14 starts on the road covering 78 2/3 innings, Ray went 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. This compared with 3.02 and 1.02 in 18 starts covering 110 1/3 innings at home. The Mariners ended the regular season 0-5 in Ray's last five starts. The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two clubs. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-22 | Rays +107 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays come into the playoffs on a 5-game losing streak, but none of that matters in this short, best-of-three series. The opening game will feature two former All-Star pitchers in Shane McClanahan (2022) and Shane Bieber (2019, 2021), and the over under line has been installed at 6 runs. McClanahan has done his best work on the road this season, as he's compiled a 2.08 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 10 road starts (compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home). Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled at home vs. top-flight American League starting pitchers with ERAs less than 2.90, as they've won just 34 of 84 games (minus 18.4 net games on the moneyline). Tampa Bay is a sensational 20-5 (+19.2 net games) on the road when the Over/Under has been 7 runs or less. And the Rays also excel in the daytime, as they're 91-57 (+21.3 net games). We'll take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. They didn't make the playoffs, but no team in baseball can be any more optimistic for the future than the Orioles. With the lowest team payroll in the Majors, the O's surprised everyone -- perhaps except themselves -- by posting a winning record and staying alive in the AL Wild Card race until the last few days. With some of the best young players on the planet, no team's fans are looking forward to next season more than those in Baltimore. The remnants of Hurricane Ian put a damper on things in the area on Tuesday so the O's and Jays will finish the season with a double-header today. In Game 1, the O's will send out RH Mike Baumann for his fourth start of the season. The 27-year-old has been used primarily as a reliever this season but the O's have enough faith in Baumann to give him a final start this afternoon. It's a chance for revenge as the Jays beat Baumann exactly one month ago -- ironically also in the first of a double-header -- here at Camden Yards. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. The Rockies won last night, 2-1, which was L.A.'s second straight loss. But Los Angeles generally bounces back off low-scoring games, as it's 33-5 at home after scoring less than 3 runs. Even better: it's 48-16 behind its southpaw, Julio Urias, who has gone 10-1 with a 1.12 ERA over his last 13 outings. Urias will be opposed by Colorado's Ryan Feltner, who will be making his 21st career start. The Rockies have gone 6-14 in his other starts, including 2-9 on the road, and 0-8 in games where the Over/Under was less than 9 runs. Feltner's ERA since August has been 6.29, and he's made just one quality start over his last 13. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies have joined the Padres in the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, leaving the Brewers on the outside looking in this season. Since they will have to settle for the 5th or 6th seed -- that has yet to be determined -- the Pads rested a couple of their regular starters last night against the Giants and they may do the same tonight in their next-to-last game of the regular season. The NL Cy Young award won't go to the Giants' Carlos Rodon, but the lefty is right in the mix for another top pitching honor. The 29-year-old All Star is in a tight battle with Corbin Burnes for the NL strikeout title, and he has a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts with a league-leading 12.0 K rate. In his only other start at Petco Park this season, Rodon threw a complete game, allowing one run one on three hits with 12 strikeouts in a 3-1 Giants victory. Take San Francisco. |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -191 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros have locked up the best record and number 1 seed in the American League, so you could say that these final games don't mean anything to them -- just that they want to make sure they stay healthy. But this one actually does mean something to Houston and its ace RHP, Justin Verlander. The 'Stros would like to see Verlander get his 18th win tonight as it just might clinch his third Cy Young award. Verlander not only already leads the AL with a 17-4 record, but he is also out in front with a 1.85 ERA, an .810 win percentage, a 0.85 WHIP, and hit rate of just 6.1. There are few pitchers in the history of the game that have dominated in inter-league games like Verlander. In 54 appearances (all starts) against the NL, Verlander is an incredible 37-8 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And against the Phillies, the 39-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts covering 14 innings. Despite the loss last night, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of these two teams. Take the Astros. |
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10-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals. The only pennant race left in the Majors could come down to the final day. The Mets surely can't be happy with their getting swept over the weekend by the Braves. Those three losses (combined with Atlanta's loss yesterday) puts Atlanta up by 1.5 games with an elimination number of just one. But the good news is that the Braves have to play a pesky Marlins club while the Mets are at home facing the team with the worst record in baseball -- Washington. So there's certainly reason for optimism in Queens. Veteran RH Carlos Carrasco will start things off for the home team this afternoon. After a very good month of July, the 35-year-old has been very inconsistent in August and September. Carrasco can certainly put the poor starts he's had recently out of everyone's mind with a quality outing tonight. He's done by far his best work this season at Citi Field. In 16 starts here covering 87 innings, Carrasco is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA vs. 6-4 and 4.57 in 12 starts on the road. Take the Mets minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. Tony Gonsolin will make his return from the Injured List tonight. And all Gonsolin has done this year is go 16-1, with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. And the Dodgers are 22-4 his last 26 starts (dating back to last season). Jose Urena will get the ball for Colorado tonight. For the season, in 16 starts, Urena has a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. And, dating back to last year, Urena's teams (Brewers, Rockies) have lost 16 of his last 23 starts, including a 13-0 loss to the Dodgers the last time Urena faced them on July 28. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -220 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Padres having secured their Wild Card berth on Sunday (despite losing), the final spot in the National League comes down to the Phillies and Brewers. The Phils hold a two-game lead after winning their last couple of games over the woeful Nats on Saturday and Sunday (the Brewers didn't help themselves by losing their last two). The good news for Milwaukee (if there is any) is that while Philly has to go to Houston this week for its last three, the Crew gets to host the D-Backs. In the first game, the Brewers will send out RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 29-year-old has been on fire recently. Over his last four starts, Woodruff is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts and five walks in 26 innings. Woodruff's overall numbers are very good, but at home he is in another zone. In 12 starts this season here at American Family Field covering 72 2/3 innings he is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Brewers are also 4-1 in Woodruff's five career starts vs. the D-Backs going back to May of 2018. Take Milwaukee. |
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10-02-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. If the Brewers make it into the post-season, they might want to send some flowers to the Cubs and Nationals. Locked in a tight Wild Card race with the Phillies, the Brewers have watched as the Cubs swept the Phils over three games last week and then the Nats blasted them on Saturday in the first game of a double-header by a 13-4 score. Without Philly's poor play, Milwaukee would be all but eliminated from playoff contention. They'll get a chance to pull even with the Phillies this afternoon if they can beat the Marlins, and the Nats can upset Philadelphia. RHP Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers. The 26-year-old was sidelined due to a lat muscle injury early on and then again this month due to shoulder fatigue. He appears to be healthy now and that's very good news for his team as it tries to grab the final MLB Wild Card spot. The Brewers are 18-11 in Peralta's last 29 outings with an extra day or two of rest following his previous start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 1-3 in Pablo Lopez's four starts vs. the Brewers. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -175 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. With just six games left in the regular season, the Brewers find themselves in one of the closest playoff races they've ever been involved in -- although this is nothing new for them. In 2019 for example, Milwaukee lost a one-game Wild-Card elimination after holding a 3-1 lead over the Nationals heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Even though the sting of that one is behind them, the Brewers just never seem to do anything easily, lately. And this year is no exception. RHP Aaron Ashby will take the mound tonight. The 24-year-old southpaw made one other appearance vs. the Marlins this season. That was back on May 15, and he held them hitless over 4 innings, and struck out eight. He'll match up against righty Edward Cabrera, who will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. After last night's loss, Miami is a wallet-breaking 10-32 its last 42 vs. winning teams, and 8-33 (minus 20.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road.Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Corbin Burnes, last season's National League Cy Young award winner, has matched his 2021 win total with 11 victories. The 27-year-old RHP is going to try to surpass that number tonight and set a new career best with his 12th win. But more important, Burnes is attempting to lead the Brewers to the post-season. As of this writing, Milwaukee is a half-game back of the Phillies for the final National League Wild Card spot. Burnes is 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a league-leading 231 strikeouts in 191 innings coming into his 32nd start tonight. The Brewers are 23-12 in Burnes' last 35 home starts and 29-12 in his last 41 starts in the second half of the season (10-4 in his last 14 September starts). Meanwhile, Miami is an awful 10-31 its last 41 vs. winning teams, and 8-32 (minus 19.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -159 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. The NL Wild Card has been slipping away from the Milwaukee Brewers over the last few weeks. With just eight games to go, the Brewers are making a final push for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Having been eliminated from the NL Central race by the Cardinals, Milwaukee is now focused on finishing ahead of the Phillies. And Philadelphia is helping them out by having lost seven of its last 10 games. We played on the Brewers last night vs. the Cardinals, and will come right back with them tonight. The Brew Crew will send LHP Eric Lauer to the mound for his 28th start of the season. In 27 starts covering just under 148 innings, Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.96 ERA with 141 strikeouts. The Brewers are also 16-11 in Lauer's starts this season -- 7-4 in his home starts. Finally, Miami is 41-64 its last 105 vs. lefties (minus 20.2 net games). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals. The Brewers will try to close the gap (for the final playoffs spot) between themselves and the Phillies tonight. The Brewers sit 1.5 games behind the Phils, but enjoy an advantage in the schedule to end the season. Milwaukee will play its final eight games at home, while Philly will be on the road for its final nine games. Tonight, Milwaukee will hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff for his 26th start of the season (and 12th here, at home). Woodruff is 12-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And he's a perfect 7-0 at home (Milwaukee has won 10 of his 11 home starts). In his career, Woodruff has made six home starts vs. St. Louis, including one this season (5 IP, 0 ER). Milwaukee's won four of those six starts. And it's 35-17 at home with Woodruff in his career. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Jose Quintana, has made 10 starts at Milwaukee, including one this year (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER). In those 10 starts, covering 57 2/3 innings, Quintana's allowed 26 earned runs (4.05 ERA). The Cardinals are a poor 8-20 (minus 9.2 net games) this season when installed as an underdog of +125 to +175 (and 28-49 their last 47). Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -185 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -185 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Once -- not long ago -- one of the hottest teams in the AL, the Mariners have been scuffling lately, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. Fortunately for them, their main competition for the final Wild Card spot -- the Orioles -- have gone 4-6 in their last 10, so Seattle still maintains a four-game lead with just 10 games to go. So it would be especially beneficial for the M's if their ace could win a couple of starts down the stretch. LH Robbie Ray was the 2021 Cy Young Award winner with the Blue Jays, but he's 0-2 in his last three starts -- with his ballclub going 0-3 in those. The Mariners need Ray to step up here in the last week-and-a-half. The good news is that Ray has been very successful this season against the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in two starts vs. Texas covering just under 13 innings. He's also done his best work at home, going 6-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts here covering 99 innings (vs. 6-6 and 4.69 in 14 starts on the road). Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Aaron Judge hit his 60th home run -- tying him with Babe Ruth and putting him one behind Yankee Roger Maris -- on September 20th against the Pirates. That game was the first of a six-game home stand so it was expected that Judge would hit his historic 61st homer -- and possibly even a bigger 62nd -- at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd and the Maris family who have been in attendance. But Judge didn't hit another one and now the Yanks travel north for a three-game series against the Jays. Kevin Gausman will go in Game 1 for the home team tonight. Gausman came to Toronto from San Francisco in the off-season and he's been a big part of the Jays' success, going 12-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 29 starts covering 165 1/3 innings. And his 7.19 K:BB ratio is a career-best, and leads the league this season. Gausman comes into this start off of six shutout innings in a no-decision against the Phillies . And the Jays are 4-2 in his last six starts after allowing no runs in his last. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 3-15 their last 18 on the road vs. winning teams. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays -133 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays. There isn't much separating these two teams right now as they prepare to meet for the final time in this regular season. The Rays get to wrap things up by sending out their Ace LH, Shane McClanahan, who started for the AL in this season's All Star Game. The 25-year-old is 12-6 with a 2.36 ERA in 26 starts covering just over 156 innings for the Rays. None of his starts to date have been any more important than this one as the Rays try to position themselves as the #1 Wild Card in the American League. In two previous starts this season against Toronto, McClanahan is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, with 15 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings. He'll look to keep that dominance going tonight in his home ballpark. In 17 starts here this season covering 100 2/3 innings, McClanahan is 9-4 with a 2.59 ERA. The Blue Jays are also 0-4 in their last four games vs. southpaw starters (and 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. lefthanders). Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-22 | Blue Jays +100 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays and Rays battled last night here in St. Pete. It took a four-run eighth inning from the home team to break a 6-6 tie that resulted in a big win for the Rays. With that result, the Rays and Jays now have identical records on the season and they could come out of the weekend that way if they split the next two days. The Jays will try to bounce back this evening behind the man who has been an ace for them pretty much all season. Big RH Alek Manoah will get his 30th start of the season tonight. The 24-year-old is 14-7 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 184 innings. As you might expect from a 6 foot 6 inch, 285 lb starter, Manoah isn't likely to wear down late in the season. In fact, you could argue that September has been his best month so far, as he has gone 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in four September starts covering 28 innings (and the Blue Jays are 8-1 in his nine career September starts). In 15 road starts this season, Manoah is 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 93 innings. The Jays are also 8-2 in their last 10 after losing the first two of a series, and 73-47 vs. righties (compared to 11-20 vs. lefties). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-22 | Astros -138 v. Orioles | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros have once again locked up the AL West Division -- and rather easily. The only thing left for the 'Stros is to make sure they finish the season ahead of the Yankees, and therefore with the best record in the American League. So, every game is still important to Houston. The Astros will send 27-year-old RHP Jose Urquidy to the mound tonight in the second game of the series. Urquidy has had two poor starts in a row but they were both at home. In his last three road starts, he has allowed just three runs on 15 hits in 21 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and three walks. The Astros are also 13-4 in the last 17 here at Orioles Park, and 13-6 off a shutout loss. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 3-8 as a home underdog behind Dean Kremer. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners minus 1.5 runs over the Oakland Athletics. If there's a better rookie starter in the American League than the Mariners' George Kirby, you'd be hard pressed to find him. The 24-year-old RHP is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 123 strikeouts and just 15 walks in just under 118 innings. With the seasons that Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman are having, there is no chance Kirby will win the AL Rookie of the Year, but if there was an award for best first-year starter, then Kirby would be a shoe-in (the Twins' Joe Ryan and Braves' Spencer Strider are second-year rookies). Kirby will try for his eighth win this afternoon and he certainly doesn't need any more incentive than being part of a team which is in the heat of a post-season race. The M's are currently in a battle with the Jays and Rays for the top Wild Card spot, with less than three games separating them. Kirby may be a first-year rookie, but he's already had three solid starts against the A's, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings vs. Oakland. Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -200 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. Yesterday, the A's held Seattle to a single run, in a 4-1 victory. We'll look for the M's to bounce back tonight, as they're 33-22 (+19.0 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs. The Mariners' lefty ace, Robbie Ray, will get the start tonight. And the southpaw has dominated Oakland with a 2.30 career ERA in his five starts (his teams have gone 4-1). The A's have struggled this season at home vs. lefties, as they're 4-16. And Seattle's a super 30-10 as a road favorite, while Oakland's 25-50 (minus 12.9 net games) as a home dog. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -190 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Detroit Tigers. Austin Voth had been getting regular starts for the Orioles since coming over from the Nationals in the beginning of June. But due to some shuffling last week, Voth came into the game against the Nationals from the bullpen for an inning of relief work. And wouldn't you know it but he picked up the victory in that game six days ago. The Orioles have now won all three of of the September games that the 30-year-old RHP has appeared in (including two starts). He's back to his starting role tonight at home in the second game of this series against the Tigers. The O's were sloppy in Game 1 on Monday and lost a game that they desperately needed to win (and were expected to). In the crowded AL Wild Card race, every game is critical for Baltimore. The Orioles are 8-0 in Voth's last eight home starts. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-22 | Mariners -135 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. Los Angeles will try to sweep this 4-game series this afternoon after defeating the Mariners, 5-1, yesterday. That was the 2nd straight game the M's scored just a single run. But Seattle is a solid 25-17 (+12.4 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than 2 runs, 65-48 (+22.0 net games) in daytime affairs, and 72-61 (+22.9 net games) off a loss. This pitching matchup will feature lefty Jose Suarez for the Angels, and righty Logan Gilbert for Seattle. Gilbert comes into this game off one of his best 3-game stretches of the season. He's allowed just 1 earned run over his previous three starts (17 innings; 0.53 ERA; 0.88 WHIP; 23 strikeouts). And Seattle is 16-3 behind Gilbert after he's given up less than 3 earned runs over back-to-back starts. Suarez has made four home starts in his career vs. Seattle, and has given up 12 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings (5.31 ERA; 1.18 WHIP). The Angels lost three of those four games. Meanwhile, Gilbert has a 3.95 ERA in his career starts vs. LA, with a WHIP of 1.28. He's faced the Angels four times here in L.A., and the Mariners are 4-0. Los Angeles is 6-15 as a home dog this season. Even worse, it has been a home underdog 13 times with Suarez on the mound since he entered the league in 2019, and is 2-11 in those games. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-22 | Yankees -170 v. Brewers | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Milwaukee Brewers. Today will be Gerrit Cole's 30th start of the season for the Yankees. Cole is far from done, too, as the veteran RHP could get three more starts before the end of the regular season. And then he will likely carry the load for New York in the post-season. Cole is having another outstanding campaign with an 11-7 record and 3.30 ERA, with a league-leading 228 strikeouts in 177 1/3 innings. The Yanks are making a rare regular season appearance in Milwaukee and, given how the first two games of the series have gone, they may not want to come back anytime soon. But Cole can get New York back on track this afternoon with another one of his strong starts. He is an inter-league machine with an 18-7 record (.720) and 2.84 ERA in 34 starts covering just under 216 innings against teams from the opposite league. The Yankees are also 10-4 in Cole's last 14 starts as a road favorite, and 52-26 in their last 78 games vs. teams from the NL Central. Meanwhile, Jason Alexander's ERA in his home starts is an ugly 5.81, and the Brewers have lost four of those five starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. Sometimes a starting pitcher can get redemption for a disappointing season with just one start. Tonight could be just such an instance for the Phillies and RH Aaron Nola. It's been a tough season for sure for the 29-year-old who has called Philadelphia home since he came into the league in 2015. In 28 starts covering 179 1/3 innings, Nola is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA. Those are not the type of numbers expected from an ace on a winning team. But a quality start and victory against the defending World Series champs should give Nola perhaps a big boost going forward. He threw two scoreless innings last Sunday at home against the Nationals before exiting due to an extended rain delay. In 28 career starts vs. the Braves covering just under 176 innings Nola is 14-9 with a 3.43 ERA. The Phils have won two of Nola's three starts vs. Atlanta this season by a combined score of 18-5. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. Max Fried probably won't win the NL Cy Young, but he should definitely be part of the conversation. Over the last four seasons, the 28-year-old has developed into one of most consistent and reliable left-handed starters in the game. In 27 starts this season, Fried is 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and it seems like it doesn't matter where he pitches or who he faces -- Fried just goes out and gets quality innings almost every time. Tonight will be Fried's third start of the season against the Phillies. In 60 career games here at his home venue (now called Truist Park) covering 318 2/3 innings, Fried is 27-11 (.711) with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. In 16 career games vs. the Phillies covering just under 64 innings, Fried is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA. In his last three starts against the Phils here at home, Fried has allowed four ER on 14 hits in 18 innings (a 2.00 ERA) with 16 strikeouts and four walks. The Braves have won all three of those home meetings by a combined score of 24-9. But perhaps Fried's most important role is that of a "stopper," as the Braves are 28-9 with him on the mound after they lost their previous game. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-22 | Padres v. Mariners -148 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the San Diego Padres. Here is an interesting inter-league match-up between two West division clubs that are hopelessly behind League-leading teams and therefore trying to stay alive in their respective Wild Card races. Going into this game, the Mariners are in a battle (with the Rays and Blue Jays) for the top wild card spot, while the Padres are sitting in sixth in the NL standings, two games clear of the Brewers for the final Playoffs spot. RH Luis Castillo -- acquired by Seattle at the trade deadline -- will get the start this afternoon for the home team. Castillo has plenty of experience against the Padres from his time with Cincinnati in the National League. In seven starts since joining the M's, Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in just over 43 innings. And in his seven career starts vs. San Diego, Castillo has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings. The Padres' Mike Clevinger, in contrast, has a 6.00 ERA in his career starts vs. Seattle. The M's ran into a red-hot pitcher last night in Yu Darvish but despite their loss here they're still 5-2 in their last seven inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record. And they're 28-11 (+11.3 net games) this season as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Colorado Rockies. Don't look now but here come the White Sox. The team that was just about everyone's pick to win the AL Central took a while to get going, but now they're one of the hottest teams in the AL. And they're doing it without their Hall of Fame Manager, Tony La Russa who was told by his doctors to step away from the game for a while (it's unknown when or even if La Russa will be back). With bench coach Miguel Cairo as skipper, the Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 games and have moved into second place in the Division, just 2 1/2 games back. RH Michael Kopech will get his 25th start of the season tonight. The 26-year-old should be very glad to be pitching back at home tonight. His last two were on the road and they were rough. In his last three starts here on the South Side, Kopech has allowed five runs on 11 hits in 19 innings with 16 strikeouts and six walks. In 12 career inter-league games (three starts) covering 27 2/3 innings, Kopech is 3-0 and has yet to allow a run (0.00 ERA)! Meanwhile, Colorado has won just 27 of 99 games as road underdogs of +150 (or more). Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER the total. This is a great pitching matchup tonight in the desert. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to rookie Ryne Nelson -- their Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021 -- who will be making his second career start. His debut was a sparkling one, as he shut out the Padres over 7 innings last Monday, in a 5-0 Arizona win. Nelson struck out seven, and allowed just four hits, while walking none. His mound opponent this evening will be southpaw All-Star, Tyler Anderson, who is 13-3 this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In his two prior starts vs. Arizona this season, Anderson gave up just two runs and 13 baserunners over 13 innings, with 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers are 11-6-1 UNDER the total in Anderson's last 18 starts. And six of the previous seven games between these teams at Arizona have gone UNDER the total. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. You probably didn't expect to hear this come September but every game is crucial for the Orioles now. Baltimore appears serious that it's not just going to settle for a winning campaign -- this team wants a spot in the post-season. They have recently called up yet another talented prospect in IF Gunnar Henderson and are starting the 21-year-old virtually every game. So needless to say the O's need to take at least two of these next three at home against the Red Sox -- a team that they can beat on a regular basis for a change. RH Austin Voth will get things started for the O's. The 30-year-old journeyman has found a home in Baltimore and he's making the most of it. In 17 games (13 starts) with the Orioles, Voth is 4-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 63 innings. And in six starts at Camden Yards, Voth is 3-0 while the Orioles are an incredible 6-0. The Red Sox are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game (they were just shut out by Tampa). Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. If the Brewers are going to turn their recent fortunes around and have any chance of making the post-season, now is the time to do it. They are looking at a double-header today with the 65-70 Giants, followed by three more at home over the weekend against the Reds. At the very least, they will need to go 3-2 but taking four games out of the five is almost mandatory considering the situation. And they start with their Cy Young-winning ace on the mound this afternoon. Corbin Burnes won't be taking down the hardware this season, but he still has some very solid overall numbers even if he's been struggling lately. The 27-year-old RH needs to put his last three starts behind him (0-1 with an 8.22 ERA) and pitch like he's capable of today. The good news is that somehow the Brewers managed to win two of those last three starts and they are still 17-10 overall when he goes to the hill this season. The Brewers are also 8-2 in Burnes' last 10 September starts, while the Giants are a poor 9-23 vs. NL starters with an ERA of 3.20 (or less), and 6-24 as a road underdog (minus 14.6 net games). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-22 | Brewers -130 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. Milwaukee lost, 10-7, in extra innings last night, so they look to rebound on this Wednesday afternoon. Eric Lauer will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and time is running out for them, as they're now 3 games behind the Phillies and Padres with just 27 games to go. Notwithstanding last night's victory, the Rockies are still a poor 15-30 their last 45 games. And they're 3-12 off a win in their previous game. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. This past weekend's home series against the Nats was supposed to be an automatic 3-0 to ensure that New York would stay at least three games ahead of Atlanta. Instead, the unthinkable occurred as the Mets dropped two of the games while the Braves swept the Marlins to get within a game of a tie for first place. So, if you think New York is going into Pittsburgh over-confident, you might want to think again. The Mets and Pirates were rained out yesterday, so they'll give it another go this evening. New York will send 10-game winner Taijuan Walker to the mound. The 30-year-old RH has a chance to right his own ship after a month of August he would like to erase completely. Despite a disastrous last month, Walker still has a 10-3 record with a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 23 starts. And a veteran like him should able to put the bad stuff aside and focus on what he needs to do going forward. New York is a solid 36-14 off a loss this season, and 10-2 off back to back losses. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. teams from the NL East, and 1-10 at home with Mitch Keller on the mound. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees. Don't look now, but what once appeared to be an insurmountable deficit that the Rays had behind the Yankees is now down to just four games. The Yanks looked like they had righted the ship last week when they won five in a row, but with the loss here in St. Pete last night, they've now lost six of their last seven and are in danger of being caught in the standings -- something that seemed all but impossible a couple of months ago. The struggles of their newest starter, RH Frankie Montas, have been well documented by now. And if the Yanks ever needed him to finally come through for them -- now is the time. And there are a couple of reasons to think that he will. First, Montas' last start was his longest since he came to the Bronx -- six innings -- and in his last two outings, Montas has logged 12 strikeouts and only one walk. Second, Montas does well against Tampa. In six career games vs. the Rays (five starts), Montas is 2-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, with 32 strikeouts and five walks in 33 2/3 innings. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals. Just when things looked like they were going great for the Mets, last night their ace, Max Scherzer, left the game early against his former team with what was described as side fatigue. Even worse: the Nats' hitters went nuts and embarrassed New York at home. But the Mets are still in first place, so they will look to move past that game and bounce back against a bad DC team this afternoon behind RHP Carlos Carrasco. The 35-year-old looks like a solid candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. In 23 starts covering 126 1/3 innings, Carrasco is 13-5 with a 3.92 ERA. Carrasco has already faced the Nationals three times this season, with some pretty sparkling results. In just over 17 innings, Carrasco is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP vs. Washington. His last start against them was five innings of shutout, four-hit ball right here at Citi Field in a 5-0 Mets victory on June 1. Despite their win here last night, the Nats are still just 7-20 in their last 27 games in Queens. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-22 | Brewers -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. There was a time -- not that long ago -- when Madison Bumbarner was one of the most feared pitchers in the game. It appears those days are gone as the veteran southpaw -- still only 33-years-old -- is on his way to his third consecutive losing season. Bumgarner is signed through 2024, so unless the D-Backs are able to move him, we'll likely see him in an Arizona uniform for a while despite his sub-par numbers. Speaking of sub-par, Brewers ace Corbin Burnes has been just that in his last three starts (1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings). But two of those were against the Dodgers, so Burnes likely isn't overly-concerned, and will look to get back on track tonight against an Arizona team that he completely dominated when he previously faced it (7 IP; 0 R; 4 H; 13 K; 0 BB). Anything close to that performance tonight should result in a Brewers win as they try to keep pace with the Cardinals. Despite the loss last night, the Crew is still 19-8 in the last 27 meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-22 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays minus 1.5 runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Buccos acquired 24-year-old Johan Oviedo in the trade which sent Jose Quintana to the St. Louis Cardinals. This will be Oviedo's first start with Pittsburgh, but he was 0-9 in his 19 career starts with St. Louis (which went 4-15 in those games). Including relief appearances, Oviedo was 2-9 in his stint in St. Louis, with a 4.65 ERA. It's hard to imagine his results will be better in a Pirates uniform, given the Pirates' lack of offense (463 runs, #28 MLB). And, certainly, Oviedo's first test as a Pirate is against a difficult opponent, as Toronto's offense ranks #7 in baseball, and his mound opponent is also one of MLB's best. Some players are sorry to see the month of August come to a close while others are glad it's September. Count Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah among the latter group. Although his ERA was a solid 3.34 last month, Manoah managed just one win and the Blue Jays went 1-4 in his five August starts. That makes them 1-5 in his last six trips to the mound when you add on his last start of July. But Manoah is still a very dangerous starter and he's built for the long haul so don't be surprised if the big RH finishes the season very strong -- and the Jays follow suit. He can get things started tonight with this trip south to Pittsburgh to begin a three-game set against the 49-81 Pirates. It will be Manoah's first start against the Bucs as he's normally used to much tougher competition (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, etc.). In four career inter-league starts, Manoah is 2-1. Additionally, Toronto went 5-0 in Manoah's September starts in 2021 and it's also 9-4 this season when Manoah goes on five or six days' rest. Take the Jays minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-22 | Orioles v. Guardians -172 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -172 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Guardians over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles welcomed their latest top prospect up to the Show last night and 3B Gunnar Henderson didn't disappoint. In his second at-bat, the 21-year-old from Alabama crushed a home run for his first Major League hit while leading the O's to a 4-0 victory. It was their first win of this series, so they will go for a four-game split tonight in the finale It won't be easy however as the visitors have to face former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. The veteran RH is having another strong season, posting a 3.02 ERA in 24 starts with 153 strikeouts in 152 innings with 32 walks. The only numbers that are sub-par for an ace is Bieber's 8-7 record. But Bieber has been a Bird killer in his career. In three lifetime starts against the Orioles, Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.54 WHIP with 37 strikeouts and two walks in 24 innings. The Guardians are also 53-23 (+18 net games) as a home favorite the last 2 seasons, and 59-27 (+12.3 net games) in Bieber's career when favored. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers minus 1.5 runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Zach Thompson will get the start for the Pirates this afternoon. Thompson is 0-6 in his last 10 starts, and he's 2-15 in his last 31 starts. Even worse, the Bucs have lost 23 of those 31 games. His ERA this season is 5.40, and it's 6.58 over his last three outings. And his career ERA vs. the Brewers is 6.62. Milwaukee will counter with Freddy Peralta, who was understandably rusty when he returned from the injured list on August 3. The Brewers didn't let him go past 5 innings in his first three starts, but he went 6 innings in each of his last two games, and allowed 2 runs over those 12 innings, including a 6 IP, 0 ER performance last Friday. His ERA over his last three starts is 1.69, and his WHIP is 0.87. And his seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh, his ERA is 2.09. It's true that Thompson is well-rested, with nine days off in between this start, and his previous outing. But the Bucs are 0-7 in his starts when he was well-rested with at least 7 days off. Take Milwaukee minus 1.5 runs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-22 | Dodgers v. Mets +128 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In what could be a preview of the NLCS, the Dodgers come into Shea tonight for the first of four games that for sure will be closely watched and analyzed by many. The Dodgers will start southpaw Andrew Heaney, while the Mets will go with veteran Taijuan Walker. The 30-year-old RHP is 10-3 with a very nice 3.38 ERA in 22 starts covering just over 117 innings. Walker has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts combined but received very little run support in those -- both no-decisions. He will look for the bats to return for him tonight at home as they did in his four starts prior to that when the Mets plated a total of 31 runs. The Mets were shut out, 1-0, in their last game, but are 35-12 off a loss. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-22 | Yankees -173 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -173 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. Almost a month after being acquired at the trade deadline by the Yankees, RHP Frankie Montas is still looking for his first win in Pinstripes. To say that the 29-year-old has been a disappointment since joining New York from Oakland would be a big understatement. But if Montas can put up four victories and a 3.19 ERA in 19 starts with the A's, then he certainly should be able to do at least that with a much superior Yanks club. The good news is that New York is still comfortably in first place and there's still plenty of time for Montas to right the ship (before a trip to the bullpen would be considered as an option). A start against a bad Angels team with which Montas is very familiar could be just what the Doctor ordered. In 15 games -- 12 starts -- covering 70 1/3 innings, Montas is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP vs. the Halos. And here at Angels Stadium he is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in six games -- five starts -- covering 30 innings. New York won the three games earlier this season (in New York) by a combined 17-3 score, and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings here in Orange County. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Miami Marlins. The Marlins managed to score a huge upset over the best team in baseball on Saturday. Of course it took a complete game from their ace -- and Cy Young candidate -- Sandy Alcantara, in a 2-1 Miami home victory. The problem for the Marlins is that they only have one Sandy Alcantara on their staff and he won't be available today. The Dodgers will send their 20-game winner from 2021 -- Julio Urias -- to the mound for his 25th start of the season. Urias won't win 20 games this year, but the 26-year-old LHP is having another outstanding campaign. In 24 starts, covering just under 134 innings, Urias is 13-7 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, with a 4.81 K:BB ratio (130 strikeouts and 27 walks). The Mexican southpaw has been much better on the road this season than in L.A. In 11 home starts, Urias is 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA. However, in 13 road starts, he is 8-4 with a 2.13 number. Despite their loss yesterday, the Dodgers are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Marlins. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -190 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew lost in extra innings last night, 4-3, which was its 3rd straight defeat. Tonight, Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and he's 5-0 in eight home starts this season (Milwaukee is 7-1 in those games), with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Woodruff has also been dominant vs. the Cubs. In his last eight starts vs. them, Woodruff has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 8 games. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. The Blue Jays' troubles continue as the Angels spanked them at home, 12-0, in the first game of this weekend series. Despite the presence of two of the best players in the game -- Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- the Angels are a terrible team right now. They're also without their closer for this series as Ryan Tepera is unvaccinated and therefore could not make the trip across the border into Canada (though they didn't need him in their rout on Friday night). It will be Ohtani getting the ball this afternoon for his 22nd start of the season. Ohtani's numbers tell you everything you need to know about the Angels. He has some dominant pitching stats but is just 10-8 in the won-lost column so you can imagine how bad the records are of the other L.A. starters. Alek Manoah will get his 25th start of the season. The big RHP hasn't won a game since August 4, but is still 12-6 with a 2.66 ERA on the season. Despite their win yesterday, the Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a RH starter. And Toronto is an awesome 27-10 after scoring less than two runs. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-26-22 | Padres -180 v. Royals | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Kansas City Royals. Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres tonight. And once again, the Padres will look to their ace to stop a losing streak. The Padres and Musgrove were in a similar situation last Saturday, and Musgrove allowed just 1 run over 6 innings, in a 2-1 Padres victory. That moved San Diego's record to 9-1 this season with Musgrove, if it was off a loss in its previous game (and 21-11 its last 32 in that situation). Kris Bubic will start for the Royals, and he has a 5.40 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts. And his ERA in Interleague contests this year is an ugly 11.13. The Royals are also a wallet-busting 13-36 (minus 11.1 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Colorado Rockies. The Mets were swept in a two-game subway series by their American League counterparts in the Bronx and then had the day off on Wednesday. They return back to Queens tonight for the first of four against the Rockies, and they're 8-2 this season off back to back losses. It's only been four starts, but RH ace Jacob deGrom has looked like the best pitcher on the planet again and that's scary considering he still likely doesn't have all his arm strength back. Start number five comes against a team that can be dangerous at home but probably won't be able to offer much resistance here at Citi Field. The Rockies are a dreadful 24-64 (minus 28.4 net games) as road underdogs vs. righties, while the Rockies are 0-6 with Ryan Felter in games with Over/Under lines less than 9 runs, and 1-6 in his starts as a road dog. Meanwhile, this season, deGrom is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 23 1/3 innings with 37 strikeouts and only one walk (how's that for a K:BB ratio!). And in nine lifetime games vs. the Rox (all starts), deGrom is 5-1 with a ridiculous 1.17 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in just over 61 innings. Take New York minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-22 | Guardians v. Padres -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cleveland Guardians. Heading into the All-Star Break, Blake Snell was his normal inconsistent self, going 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 10 starts covering 50 innings. Needless to say, Snell did not play in the Mid-Summer Classic in Los Angeles and he must have used those days off to figure out exactly what he was doing wrong -- and to correct it. Since the break, the 29-year-old LHP has been one of the hottest starters in the National League. In six starts since the All Star Game covering just under 34 innings, Snell is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He threw in a bit of a clunker in his last start (5IP, 3ER) but his other 5 starts were brilliant. Snell has some solid experience against the Indians/Guardians from his time in the American League. In five starts vs. Cleveland covering 33 1/3 innings, Snell is 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA in 21 inter-league starts covering just over 116 innings. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles. The O's stayed hot with a win over the Red Sox in Williamsport, PA, in the MLB Little League Classic on Sunday. They had Monday off and return home tonight to begin a series with the White Sox. They would have normally been facing one of Chicago's lesser starters but Dylan Cease was rained out on Sunday, so Baltimore will have to face one of the most dominant starters in baseball instead. How Cease didn't make the AL All-Star squad is still a huge mystery. And he's done little since that time to make the voters feel better about his omission. In 24 starts covering just under 134 innings, Cease is 12-5 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. And his 178 strikeouts is good for second-best in the American League. He had a rare, non-quality start his last time out (5 IP, 3 ER). It was the 5th time this season he surrendered more than 1 earned run. But he usually bounces back as he's been brilliant in his 4 starts following those sub-par outings (25 2/3 IP, 2 ER), while the ChiSox went 4-0 in those games. The White Sox are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-22 | Braves -185 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you had told Jake Odorizzi in early July that he was going to be traded away from the team with the best record in the AL, he might have been understandably upset. But if you then told the 32-year-old RH that he would be landing in Atlanta with the defending World Series Champs, well, he probably would've been okay with that. Odorizzi gives the Braves some much needed depth at the back end of their rotation. And although he's still looking for his first win with the club, Atlanta seems confident putting the veteran out on the mound every five days or so. Two of his starts have come against the Mets, so this will be a step down in class for him, in his 16th start of the season -- fourth with the Braves. In two career starts vs. the Bucs, Odorizzi is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings. The Braves are also 6-0 in their last six road games and 111-55 (+32.1 net games) their last 166 as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 0-5 in their last five games vs. NL East teams. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. The Mariners 4-game win streak was snapped yesterday by Oakland, so Seattle will look to start a new streak this afternoon. And who better to have on the mound than recently acquired Luis Castillo. All Castillo has done since June 28 is lead his teams to victories, as he's gone 3-0 in eight starts, with a 1.82 ERA, while his teams have gone 8-0. Castillo has been installed as a big favorite today, and Oakland is 19-41, minus 14.3 net games, when priced as a home underdog. Even worse: the A's are 0-8 this year at home when the Over/Under line was less than 7 runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a solid 23-7, +13.7 net games, as a road favorite. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-20-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals. Last night, Josh Hader had yet another meltdown for his new team, as the MLB saves leader (29) allowed 3 runs without retiring a batter. His ERA is 13.50 since joining the Padres. And it's an unsightly 5.06 on the season. I would be surprised if Hader was used tonight, given he also pitched Thursday night. And that's probably a good thing for San Diego, at this point. Joe Musgrove will get the start for Bob Melvin's club, and he's been a stopper for San Diego the last couple of seasons, as San Diego is 19-11 off a loss with Musgrove on the mound, including 7-1 this season. Washington, meanwhile, is a poor 12-32 its last 44, including 3-9 off a win. And it's 51-76 (minus 19 net games) its last 127 off a win. Take San Diego minus 1.5 runs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-22 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Miami Marlins. If someone had told you at the beginning of the season that two of the Dodgers would be leading the NL in Wins, you probably would have thought, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias ... or maybe Buehler and Clayton Kershaw. You certainly wouldn't think those two leaders would be Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson. But sometimes this game throws you curveballs and the success of the bottom end of the Dodger rotation this season is certainly one of those. The Dodgers got out of Milwaukee with a four-game split and now it's Anderson's turn to kick off this weekend series with the Marlins. In 22 games -- 20 starts -- the 32-year-old southpaw is 13-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Those numbers earned Anderson his first ever All Star Game appearance last month and he hasn't slowed down since then as he is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in five starts covering 31 innings since the break. Clearly, he loves his new ballpark as Anderson is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) at Dodger Stadium this year. And he should find success tonight against a Marlins club which has only scored more than 3 runs in one of its last 18 games. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 104 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers beat the mighty Dodgers in dramatic fashion on Tuesday night, plating two runs in the bottom of the 11th after falling behind in the top of the inning. That sent the Brewer faithful home in delirious fashion but the Dodgers got their revenge last night. So, now the Brewers will try to earn a 2-2 split in this series. And who better to have on the mound for the home team than the reigning Cy Young Award winner?! RHP Corbin Burnes is having another season that is worthy of consideration for top pitching honors in the NL. In 23 starts, Burnes is 8-5 with a 2.39 ERA and he leads the league with a 0.92 WHIP as well as his 181 strikeouts and an 11.4 K rate. Milwaukee's won 41 of Burnes' 65 career starts. And Burnes' ERA in his career in day games is also solid (3.03). Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have so far made a statement in this series against the Mets. Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four-game set by a combined score of 18-1. The only problem, however, is that over the next two days, the Braves hitters will have to face possibly the two best pitchers in the game in Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer is up first tonight for the visitors. The 38-year-old RHP has been nothing short of brilliant in his first season in Queens. In 16 starts covering just under 103 innings, Scherzer is 8-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 126 strikeouts and only 17 walks. Those are the kind of numbers that could earn Scherzer his fourth Cy Young award. In 29 career games vs. the Braves -- 27 starts -- Scherzer is 12-9 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But this season with the Mets, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts vs. Atlanta. And the Mets are also 31-11 off a loss. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers -112 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers have been installed as a home favorite vs. Ryan Pepiot and the Dodgers tonight. And it's certainly justified with Brandon Woodruff on the mound tonight. Woodruff has been dominant in his career as a home favorite, as the Brewers are 6-1 this season in that situation, and 29-14 in his career. Woodruff's home ERA this season is 2.38, with a 0.76 WHIP. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -210 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -210 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. This will be Dean Kremer's fourth career start vs. Toronto. Unfortunately for the Orioles' RH, his ERA is 11.33 and his WHIP is 2.03 in those three outings, and Baltimore went 0-3. Even worse: the Orioles are a wallet-busting 1-10 as an underdog of +150 (or higher) with Kremer, including 0-6 on the road. Meanwhile, Alek Manoah is 2-0 in five career starts vs. Baltimore, with a 2.96 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP. And the Blue Jays are 14-5 in his 19 home starts in his career, and 16-5 when Manoah has pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take Toronto. |
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08-16-22 | Rays v. Yankees -158 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -158 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm our selections is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. Nestor Cortes has adopted the nickname “Nasty Nestor” among the Yankees faithful this season and it appears to be well deserved so far. The 27-year-old Cuban southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts with 125 strikeouts in 118 innings. The thing about Cortes when you watch him pitch is that his delivery seems so effortless and he doesn't throw particularly hard so you naturally think he would be easy to hit. Quite the opposite is true however. MLB batters are still trying to figure Cortes out as the All-Star has allowed just 89 hits and he continues to baffle his opponents. His efficient throwing style should be especially important as we get into the latter stages of the season and he will no doubt be an important part of his team in the post-season as well. He's also done by far his best work at home this season with a 4-0 record and 2.06 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine starts here at Yankee Stadium vs. 5-3 and 3.15 in 12 starts on the road. Take the Yankees. |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies acquired Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in a deadline deal which was pretty quiet compared to some of the other trades that went down at the same time. Philly doesn't need Syndergaard to be a #1 or even a #2 starter -- they have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for that -- but rather just a guy who will give them quality innings as a back-end member of the rotation. Thor did just that in his last start -- his second with the Phils -- as he tossed six strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits in a 4-3 Philadelphia victory over the Marlins. He'll look to build on that tonight in the first of three against the Reds at home. He couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent if he tried as Syndergaard is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts against the Reds covering just under 43 innings. The Reds will go with Mike Minor who is threatening to re-define what a frustrating campaign looks like as the veteran RH is 1-9 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 starts in his first season in Cincinnati. Take the Phillies. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-22 | Twins -135 v. Angels | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Anaheim Angels. Last night, Minnesota blew a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, en route to 5-3 extra innings loss to the Angels. Given how tight the American League playoff race is, the Twins can't afford to lose any games, much less those where they have a 9th inning lead. So, I expect the Twins to be in a determined mood this afternoon. They'll hand the ball to RH Chris Archer, while LH Tucker Davidson will toe the rubber for the home team. Unfortunately, for Anaheim, it's been dreadful when dressed up as an underdog. In its last 45 as a dog, the Angels are 12-33 (-16.7 net games). Even worse, they're 33-47 (minus 22.9 net games) vs. righties, and 25-33 (minus 19.8 net games) at home. Archer has had great success vs. the Angels in his career, as he's 6-2 in nine starts, with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers. Bad things can happen to opposing pitchers in Colorado. If you don't believe me, just ask the Cardinals' veteran RH starter Miles Mikolas. Going into last Tuesday, Mikolas was cruising along in another great campaign -- 8-8 with a 2.92 ERA in 22 starts. But his solid numbers were blown up at Coors Field, as he had one of the ugliest outings the Majors has seen this year -- and certainly one of the worst of his career. In 2 2/3 innings, the 33-year-old allowed 10 runs on 14 hits to the Rockies in a 16-5 loss. Mikolas has likely already forgotten that one -- and rightfully so -- as he prepares for start number 24 this afternoon against the Cards' division rivals in a pennant race. In 90 night games -- 70 starts -- Mikolas is just 27-27 (.500). However, in 43 afternoon games -- 36 starts -- he is 14-9 (.609). Mikolas also has a winning record in his career vs. the Brewers (6-4). And the Cards are 27-10 in their last 37 games vs. a LH starter. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals. The Nats surprised San Diego last night with a 4-3 win behind Anibal Sanchez, who went 5 innings, and gave up 3 runs to lower his ERA to 7.20. Still, Sanchez got a no-decision, and remained winless at 0-5. This afternoon, the Nationals will hand the ball to another starter who has yet to notch a win this season. Paolo Espino is 0-4 in 31 appearances (11 starts), and has a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (but those numbers balloon to 5.14 and 1.40 when only his 11 starts are counted). Espino will match up against veteran lefty Blake Snell, who has been brilliant in his last four starts (22 2/3 innings; 3 runs). Washington has struggled vs. lefties, as it's 29-60 (minus 25.7 net games). And it's also 13-41 (minus 17.7 net games) as a home dog of +125 (or more). San Diego's last 10 wins were by an average of 4.6 runs per game, and it won by 2+ runs in eight of those 10 games. We'll lay the 1.5 runs this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-13-22 | Brewers -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Corbin Burnes' 2022 numbers look eerily similar to those he put up in 2021. Yet despite his success, there probably isn't much chance that the two-time All Star will win his second NL Cy Young this season. Burnes took home top pitching honors last season and is almost directly duplicating his stats against this season, but there is a lot more competition and Burnes has been a little snake-bit as well. In 22 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old RH a is 8-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and his 175 punch-outs lead the league as well. But there are several other strong candidates on contending teams and Burnes doesn't always get the support of his hitters that he should. His last start is a perfect example as Burnes threw six innings of one-run, two-hit ball while striking out nine Reds batters. But he took a no-decision in a 4-2 Crew loss to lowly Cincy. In seven appearances here at Busch Stadium (four starts), Burnes is 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. And Milwaukee's 11-3 in his 14 road starts when priced as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-22 | Orioles v. Rays -143 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles shipped up to Boston yesterday for a rare one-game series against the Red Sox before heading down to Florida to start this series in St. Pete against the Rays. Who would've thought that in mid-August these two teams would be virtually tied and in the heat of a Wild Card chase. That's no surprise when it comes to the home team tonight, as the Rays have been contending for years and still have one of the best minor league systems. But it's odd to think about no-name Baltimore being in the chase right alongside Tampa. A player who is used to being in the playoff chase is the Rays' RHP Corey Kluber. Gone are his Cy Young numbers, but the veteran is 7-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts covering 111 innings. This will be Kluber's sixth start of the season vs. the O's and he's had some mixed results, with his best efforts by far coming in his two starts against them here at home. Importantly, the O's are 13-38 in the last 51 meetings in St. Pete. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-11-22 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros minus 1.5 runs over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers won, 8-4, in 10 innings yesterday. But that was an uncommon road victory for the Rangers. Indeed, Texas is a poor 56-111 (minus 31.5 net games) its last 167 on the road. This afternoon, the Rangers will face southpaw Framber Valdez. And to say Texas has been dominated lately by 28-year-old lefty would be an understatement. Valdez has faced Texas five times since Sept. 17, 2020, and he's 4-0 in those five starts, with an ERA of 1.11, and a WHIP of 0.89. Texas will also start a southpaw -- Cole Ragans -- and the Astros are 26-11 (+6.2 net games) vs. lefties this season. Finally, Texas has struggled in daytime affairs, with a 15-25 record (minus 10.1 net games), while Houston has excelled in the afternoon (29-13, +7.4 net games). Lay the 1.5 runs with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-22 | Yankees -125 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. We played on the Yankees in Game 1 of this 3-game series, and easily won as the Pinstripes scored 9 runs. Yesterday, though, the Yankees bats were completely stifled in a 13-inning, shutout defeat. But off that 1-0 loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on this Wednesday afternoon. Indeed, New York is 21-7 its last 28 after scoring less than 3 runs. And it's also 111-58 (+34.7 net games) its last 169 after being shut out in its previous game. Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber for New York today, and he's a perfect 5-0 in nine daytime starts, with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Mariners have lost Robbie Ray's last three starts, and his ERA over those three contests is a woeful 7.81, while his WHIP was 2.05. This will be Ray's first start vs. New York this season. But last year, he faced the Yankees three times, and was 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Giants v. Padres -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. Padres RHP Joe Musgrove went into the break as a first-time All Star with an 8-2 record and a 2.42 ERA through his first 16 starts. Since the Mid-Summer Classic, Musgrove has struggled to find a victory, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Mets, Twins, and Rockies. A start against the Giants, though, may just be what the doctor ordered for the 29-year-old. Musgrove owns a 3.66 ERA in nine career starts covering just under 52 innings vs. San Francisco. Musgrove also has a 3.07 ERA in nine starts at Petco Park this season. And the Pads are 3-0 in his last three starts vs. the Giants going back to October 2 of last year. In fact, in those last three starts vs. San Francisco, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 19 innings. The Giants will go with RH Alex Cobb who has lost his last five decisions, while the Giants have gone 2-7 in Cobb's last nine starts going back to the beginning of June. And SF is a wallet-breaking 5-17 as a road underdog this year. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Rays v. Brewers -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers got a boost last week from the return of RHP Freddy Peralta. Peralta hadn't pitched since leaving a start against the Nats early on May 22 with an injury. He came off the IL last Wednesday to face the Pirates in Pittsburgh and was obviously rusty, lasting just 3 2/3 innings. I expect a much better performance tonight back at home in this inter-league game vs. the Rays. In 55 career games here in Milwaukee -- 28 starts -- Peralta is 17-8 (68%) with a 3.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP compared to 12-7 (63%) with a 4.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 52 games -- 31 starts -- on the road. The Rays have never seen Peralta before, but he's done some good work in inter-league games, posting a 3.73 ERA in 17 games -- 6 starts -- vs. teams from the AL. The Brewers are also 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays, including 2-0 in a short series earlier this season in St. Pete. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Braves -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox took an odd approach at the recent trading deadline feeling that they could still compete for a Wild Card spot. They didn't want to be sellers and trade away veterans like JD Martinez or Nathan Eovaldi but they also didn't want to be big buyers because that would mean parting with quality prospects. In case they're wrong about getting to this year's post-season, that could be a disaster. From my perspective, they're not only wrong about having a chance of the post-season, they appear to have been drinking some strange Kool-Aid. Just how bad has Boston been since the deadline? How about a 1-4 record including a series loss (1-3) to the lowly Royals. Things get much tougher this week with a visit from the Braves. Charlie Morton kicks things off for the visitors. Morton has struggled a bit lately, but he's still a dangerous veteran RH on the mound. He's had quality starts in five of his last nine outings, and he's 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts at Fenway Park covering 28 innings. In contrast, Rich Hill has only had two quality starts in his last 10 starts. Finally, the Braves are 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Boston, and they're 12-1 off back to back losses. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-22 | Yankees -105 v. Mariners | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. Jamison Taillon was victorious in his last start before the All Star break -- a 14-1 blowout of the Red Sox -- taking his record to 10-2 on the season with the Yankees. The RH has tried three times since the break to get win number 11 but has failed to do so, despite his team winning two of those three second-half starts. Taillon will try again tonight as the Yankees travel from St. Louis to Seattle. They're no doubt happy to be leaving the Gateway City as the Cards were not very hospitable to their guests, sweeping the Yanks over three weekend games. That puts New York's losing streak at a season-high five in a row. In addition to his league-leading .833 winning percentage, Taillon has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts covering 113 2/3 innings this season. The good news for tonight is that in two starts in Seattle's T-Mobile Park covering 13 innings, Taillon is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Yanks are also 35-16 in the last 51 road meetings with the M's. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers minus 1.5 runs over the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers have hit the skids with five losses in their last six games, including a 5-3 loss to the Pirates the last time Corbin Burnes took the mound. The Brewers' ace gave up four earned runs in that game over 5 1/3 innings, which was the 2nd-most runs he's given up all year. But Burnes generally bounces back off bad outings. Indeed, when Burnes has given up 3 or more earned runs in a game, he's allowed 1 earned run or less his next time on the mound in 10 of his last 11. In those 11 starts, he's allowed just 11 earned runs over 68 2/3 innings (1.44 ERA) and, importantly, Milwaukee has won nine of those 11 games. Burnes will match-up against Cincy's Graham Ashcraft this afternoon. In one prior start this season vs. the Brewers, Ashcraft gave up 6 runs over five innings, in a 7-3 defeat. Take the Brewers minus 1.5 runs today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-22 | Blue Jays -132 v. Twins | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -132 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. There was one blockbuster trade at the deadline that shook up the entire league (Juan Soto and Josh Bell going to the Padres), several more that made some significant ripples throughout baseball, and then quite a few that pretty much went unnoticed. An example of the latter is when the pitching-rich Dodgers sent swing man Mitch White to the Blue Jays in exchange for a couple of Minor Leaguers. With the Dodgers getting Andrew Heaney back recently and Dustin May soon, there weren't going to be too many starting opportunities for the 27-year-old RH. But with the Jays, it's a different story. White will make his Toronto debut tonight after posting a 3.70 ERA in 15 games -- 10 starts -- covering 56 innings for the Dodgers. The Twins will go with RHP Dylan Bundy who has a 5.04 ERA in 18 starts covering just over 89 innings in his first season with Minnesota. Bundy has a winning record overall (6-5) but the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts going back to April 29. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers -205 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee returns to American Family Field tonight, and will turn to southpaw Eric Lauer to try to snap its 4-game losing streak. And Lauer's done his best work at home this season, as he's 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.85 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. Lauer last pitched six days ago, when he held the Red Sox to one run over five innings, in a 9-4 Brewers win. And Milwaukee's 9-3 this season with Lauer when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Yesterday, the Brewers lost 5-4 to Pittsburgh -- its second straight one-run defeat -- as the Pirates completed the 3-game sweep. Still, Milwaukee is 7-5 in its last 12 games, including 5-1 at home. And it has scored 5+ runs in eight of those 12 games. In contrast, Cincinnati's offense has scored 3, 3, 2 and 0 in its last four games. And that doesn't bode well for the Reds tonight, as they're 5-20 after scoring less than four runs in each of their three previous games. Even worse: Cincy is 3-15 when priced as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-04-22 | Blue Jays -120 v. Twins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. Alek Manoah broke out as a rookie in 2021, going 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts -- enough success to land him in the top 10 for AL Rookie of the Year. You can't blame those who thought Manoah could have a sophomore slump in 2022 as we've seen it happen so many times before. But those concerns have long been put to bed as Manoah has done his 2021 campaign one better this season. In 20 starts, the big 24-year-old RHP has an 11-5 record with a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. And he was rewarded with his first -- probably not his last -- All Star Game appearance. The only blemish that continues to be a blight on his stat sheet is the fact that Manoah hits a lot of batters (he is leading the league for the second straight season in the category). Start no. 21 will come against a Twins club that he has yet to face this season -- but that he beat last September in his second-to-last start of 2021. The Blue Jays are 31-15 in their last 46 meetings with the Twins here in Minneapolis. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-22 | Brewers -205 v. Pirates | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -205 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers did not add a major arm to their rotation at the MLB trading deadline. However, they will be welcoming a very good one back to the mound tonight. In this second game of the series with the Pirates, RHP Freddy Peralta will get his first start since his loss to the Nationals back on May 22. Following that shortened outing, the Crew placed the 26-year-old ace on the IL with a lat strain. Peralta returns tonight in what will probably be a fairly short outing but no doubt his presence on the mound will be a big boost to the team which continues to stay just barely ahead of the Cards in the NL Central. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA, Peralta was cruising before the injury with a 3-2 record in eight starts and 50 strikeouts and 13 walks in just under 39 innings (an 11.6 strikeout rate). In his last three starts against the Bucs, Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA (two runs in 18 innings) and the Brewers are 3-0 in those games. Milwaukee is also 4-1 in Peralta's last five starts, and 7-2 in its last nine, overall. Take the Brew Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-22 | Mariners v. Yankees -170 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners landed a big fish (no pun intended) when they traded with the Reds for RHP Luis Castillo a few days ago. The 29-year-old will draw his first starting assignment with his new team this afternoon and it's not an easy task to say the least. Castillo will face the Yankees for the third time in his career and he will go opposite one of the game's best in veteran RH Gerrit Cole. Cole is having another outstanding season, going 9-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 21 starts covering 125 1/3 innings. In his two starts vs. the Yanks, Castillo is 0-1 and both of those starts were here at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, in nine career starts vs. the Mariners, Cole is 6-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with 81 strikeouts and eight walks in 63 innings. Castillo is hoping he can break his road hex now that he's with Seattle as, over the last three years, the Reds went 9-22 in his starts away from Cincy. Despite their win on Tuesday, the M's are still just 4-13 in their last 17 here in the Bronx. Take the Yanks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-23 | Cubs -130 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
04-30-23 | Yankees -118 v. Rangers | Top | 2-15 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
04-29-23 | Phillies v. Astros -120 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
04-28-23 | Braves -136 v. Mets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
04-27-23 | Royals v. Twins -190 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
04-26-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -200 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
04-25-23 | Nationals v. Mets -200 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
04-24-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -153 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
04-23-23 | Blue Jays -124 v. Yankees | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
04-22-23 | Nationals v. Twins -270 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -270 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
04-21-23 | Nationals v. Twins -205 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -205 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
04-17-23 | Blue Jays -121 v. Astros | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
04-16-23 | Twins +147 v. Yankees | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
04-15-23 | Angels -104 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Rays +107 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
10-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -191 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -220 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -175 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
09-29-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -159 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
09-28-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
09-27-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -185 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -185 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays -133 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Blue Jays +100 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Astros -138 v. Orioles | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
09-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -200 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
09-20-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -190 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Mariners -135 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Yankees -170 v. Brewers | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
09-17-22 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
09-14-22 | Padres v. Mariners -148 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
09-07-22 | Brewers -130 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
09-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
09-03-22 | Brewers -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
09-02-22 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
09-01-22 | Orioles v. Guardians -172 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -172 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
08-30-22 | Dodgers v. Mets +128 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
08-29-22 | Yankees -173 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -173 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
08-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
08-27-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -190 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
08-27-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
08-26-22 | Padres -180 v. Royals | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
08-25-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
08-24-22 | Guardians v. Padres -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
08-22-22 | Braves -185 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
08-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
08-20-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
08-19-22 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 104 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
08-16-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers -112 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
08-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -210 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -210 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
08-16-22 | Rays v. Yankees -158 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -158 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
08-14-22 | Twins -135 v. Angels | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
08-14-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
08-13-22 | Brewers -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
08-12-22 | Orioles v. Rays -143 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
08-11-22 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
08-10-22 | Yankees -125 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
08-09-22 | Giants v. Padres -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
08-09-22 | Rays v. Brewers -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
08-09-22 | Braves -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
08-08-22 | Yankees -105 v. Mariners | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
08-07-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
08-06-22 | Blue Jays -132 v. Twins | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -132 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers -205 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
08-04-22 | Blue Jays -120 v. Twins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
08-03-22 | Brewers -205 v. Pirates | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -205 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
08-03-22 | Mariners v. Yankees -170 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 7 m | Show |