Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo -16 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron. The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog. That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover). But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes. Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins. And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better). Take Toledo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri -13.5 | Top | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho. After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia. So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak. Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday. Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game! And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64. Lay the points with Mizzou. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +7.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State. The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite. That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season. Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss. The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore. For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season. Take the Lobos. Mountain West Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns stunk up the joint on opening night, as they lost by 48 points to the Portland Trail Blazers. Not surprisingly, it was the worst loss in the Suns' 50-year franchise history, and also the worst opening night loss by any team in the 72-year history of the NBA. Of course, one of the things I love to do is play on teams off blowout losses, and especially when our team is favored by 7 points or less (or PK). Such teams have cashed 76.9% since 1990. Even better: the Suns are 21-10 ATS the last 31 meetings between these two clubs, including 13-4 ATS at home. Take the Suns. NBA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The Astros went into the Bronx with a ton of optimism, leading the ALCS two-games-to-none and figuring that in a worst-case scenario they would come home with a 3-2 series lead. But while the team flew from Houston to New York, the offense went somewhere else and the Yankees swept the 'Stros in the Bronx, and are now one victory away from their umpteenth World Series appearance. The only good news for Houston -- other than being back home -- is that RH ace Justin Verlander returns to the mound in game six. It was Verlander who got a victory in game two in a rare complete game, throwing 124 pitches. And if he pitches like that tonight, then the 'Stros won't really need their offense (at least not to be at its best). The Yanks have announced that RHP Luis Severino is healthy after he was forced to leave his game two start after just four innings and 62 pitches with an apparent injury. With the Yanks' sweep in games three through five, the home team is now 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Moreover, Verlander has gone 8-0 in his last eight starts, and is also 3-1 in his four career Playoff starts when facing elimination. Take Houston. American League Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 112 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Houston Astros 'over' the total. While the Astros offense may have gone to sleep in the three games in the Bronx, the Yankee hitters certainly woke up -- in a big way. New York scored a total of 19 runs in the three games which is the main reason the Yanks are one win away from yet another trip to the Fall Classic. Perhaps a trip back to Minute Maid Park will light a much needed fire under the Houston lineup. The 'Stros led all teams in scoring in the regular season (896 runs) so maybe the hometown fans will remind them of this fact and the likes of Altuve, Springer, Bregman, and Correa will respond in kind at the plate. The pitching match-up of RHs Justin Verlander vs. Luis Severino certainly favors the 'Stros tonight, but the big question is which version of Severino will show up? Look for the Astros line-up to try to jump on the 23-year-old early and often, as the Twins did in the Wild Card game. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two clubs and 12-3 in Severino's last 15 starts. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky. Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak. But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread. We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season. Take Old Dominion. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City. We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh. And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS). Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing. But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival. Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss). Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses. Take the points with the Raiders. AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-17 | Canucks v. Bruins -170 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Vancouver Canucks. It's been an up-and-down season so far for the Boston Bruins. Boston came out and won its first game here at home on October 5, beating the defending Western Conference Champion Predators, 4-3. But it has stumbled a bit since then and look to get back on track tonight against a team that was one of the worst in the NHL last season. The Bruins must be happy with the way last season turned out, because they made very few moves in the off-season and return with pretty much the same crew that got them to the post-season for the first time since 2014, but no further (they lost in the first round). What they hope to do is carry the momentum they had when they switched coaches in early February. Since taking over behind the bench for Claude Julien, coach Bruce Cassidy led the team to an 18-8-1 record and a bit of a slow start isn't going to concern him or his team too much. The Bruins are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. teams with a losing record, while the Canucks are 0-8 in their last eight in the same scenario. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Houston. This situation is similar to one from last season. The San Antonio Spurs upset Golden State on Opening Night, as an 8.5-point underdog, and then traveled to play Sacramento in Game 2. The Spurs were favored by 9 points vs. the Kings and won the game (but failed to cover). Sacramento (by virtue of its proximity to Golden State) often played teams immediately after they played the Warriors, and the Kings were 6-2 ATS in those games last season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when their foe was unrested. That, of course, is the situation tonight, as Houston upset the Warriors in Oakland, 122-121, as a 9.5-point underdog last night. And what clinches this play tonight is the fact that single-digit favorites are 0-13 ATS off an upset win in their opener, if they scored 105+ points in that Game 1 victory. Take Sacramento. NBA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-17 | Blackhawks v. Blues -117 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Chicago Blackhawks. After playing five of their first six games of the season on the road, the Blues will come home to face the Hawks tonight in a huge divisional match-up. St. Louis started out red-hot, beating the defending Penguins on their home ice in Pittsburgh on the night when they raised their Stanley Cup Banner to the rafters. The Blues then reeled off three more victories -- including their only one so far here at home -- before losing their last two. Of course what they did to the Pens is nothing compared with what their opponents tonight did to Pittsburgh in a game earlier this season. The 'Hawks blasted the Pens by a 10-1 score at home one day after the Blues beat them. But Chicago's offense has been much quieter lately, netting just four goals in their last two. And now they have to play a team that's known for its stout defense and solid goaltending. St. Louis has won eight straight off back to back road losses, which bodes well for the Blues tonight. Also, the Blackhawks have not been at their best lately when they've played inside their conference as they are 1-8 in their last nine games against teams from the West. Take the Blues. NHL High Roller Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in Game 5 between New York and Houston. The Astros have destroyed Masahiro Tanaka the past three seasons. He's made six starts vs. Houston, and New York has lost five of the six games, while his ERA in those six starts was 7.62. And his worst start came right here, in the Bronx, earlier this season when he allowed 8 runs (4 home runs) in a 10-7 defeat. The Yankees have gone 'over' in 29 of 45 games vs. foes with a .620 (or better) win percentage, while Houston has gone 'over' a whopping 49 of 77 on the road this season, including 25 of 37 when priced between +125 and -125. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs 'under' the total. After two games in balmy L.A., the NLCS will shift to Chicago where the temperatures are forecast to be in the forties tonight. The winds could also be blowing in from Wrigley's outfield, making it that much harder for the hitters in a series that's been dominated by pitching so far. RHP Kyle Hendricks was very good in the NLDS, going 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Nats. Even more impressive, both of his starts were in DC with 40,000 screaming Nats fans trying to get him off of his game. Hendricks will have the full support of the crowd tonight as he tries to get his team back into this series. But the biggest problem for him might be run support as RH Yu Darvish goes to the mound for L.A. Ignore the fact that Darvish only has one previous start against the Cubs. His wide assortment of pitches could wreak havoc on the Cubs in the cold and windy conditions. After all, it's not like Chicago's hitters have been lighting it up in this series. Finally, the 'under' is 7-1-1 the last nine meetings between these two teams, while Hendricks (17-9 'under') and Darvish (20-11 'under') have been going 'under' all season. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last year, the Cavs ousted Boston from the Playoffs. But we'll play on the Celts to avenge that defeat, as they fall into a 60% ATS NBA Playoff revenge angle of mine. Even better: our particular Playoff revenge angle zooms to 16-1-1 ATS if the game is Early in the season, and is competitively priced with a pointspread of 5 points or less! Boston's 5-1-1 ATS the last seven meetings in Cleveland. Take the points. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -6.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis. The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami. But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog. And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games. These teams have cashed 72% since 1980. Even worse for the Colts: they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Tennessee minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -124 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros. Two veteran starters go to the mound tonight in game three as the ALCS shifts to New York. But although RHP Charlie Morton and LHP CC Sabathia have 27 years and almost 4,400 innings of MLB experience between them, there is a big difference in the amount of post-season time the two have put in. Morton has pitched in just two playoff games totaling 10 innings coming into tonight and has never appeared in a Championship or World Series. Contrast that to the 21 post-season games totaling 117 innings that Sabathia has played in -- including four Championship Series and one World Series -- and you can see the true experience gap of the two starters. Also, Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two career starts at Yankee Stadium, while Sabathia is obviously comfortable pitching at home and owns a career 2-1 record with a 4.15 ERA in three starts vs. Houston. The Yanks are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts. And, finally, the Astros have burned money this season vs. southpaws, with a 23-24 record (minus 12 games on the moneyline). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and New York Yankees 'over' the total. By now, it must be painfully obvious to the New York Yankees that if they're to have a chance in the ALCS against the Astros, they're going to have to play some high-scoring games. Both of Houston's victories in games one and two have been 2-1 affairs, leading to a 2-0 lead as the series now shifts to the Bronx. And the good news in that regard for the Yanks is the fact that nobody scored more runs at home this season. In their 81 games here, the Bombers plated 451 runs and blasted 140 homers, with both of those numbers being tops in the American League. The other bit of good news for them is that veteran Charlie Morton takes the mound for the 'Stros. Both of the RHP's career starts against the Yankees have come here in the Bronx where he has posted a 5.68 ERA in just under 13 innings. The over is 47-28 for the Astros on the road, including 10-2 when the Astros gave up 1 run or less in their previous game. The over is also 9-0 for the Yankees at home, if they allowed less than 4 runs in each of their three previous games. Take the 'over.' ALCS Total of the Year. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers 'over' the total. After a pair of lefthanders led the way on the mound in game one in Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana, tonight's game two will feature more of the same. The Dodgers won Saturday even though Kershaw wasn't at his best and tonight it will be veteran LH Rich Hill's turn. You may remember Hill from his failed attempt at a no-hitter after nine hit-less innings against the Pirates on August 23. For the Cubs, veteran southpaw Jon Lester will go to the mound. Lester started game two of the NLDS against the Nats and then came in in relief in game four. Both of these lefties are very talented, that's for sure, but in the Cubs and Dodgers you have two of the best hitting teams in the league vs. southpaws this season. The Dodgers hit more home runs off of left-handed pitching -- 65 -- than any other team in the NL, while the Cubs logged a .264 batting average against them (fourth-best) and a league-best .349 OBP. The over is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last seven home games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 61 h 10 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England. Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week. In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points. For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers. But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992). Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game. Take the Steelers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year. But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980. Even worse for Jacksonville: it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home. Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins. Take the Rams + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay. The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7. But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses. Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota. And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss. Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road. After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season. And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs. Take the Cardinals. |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston. It's true that the Browns are winless on the season. But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday. Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game. With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game. Take Cleveland. |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Minnesota game. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have gone 'over' the total more often than not. But the one situation where they've consistently gone 'under' has been on the road vs. division rivals. And especially when the over/under line has been between 40.5 and 45.5 points. In that range, Green Bay has gone 'under' in 10 of 11 vs. NFC North rivals on the road. Indeed, the last three games at Minnesota have all gone 'under' the total (with the games from the last two seasons also falling within our O/U range of 40.5 to 45.5 points). Last season, Rodgers passed for a pedestrian 213 yards, and threw one interception in a 17-14 defeat. Green Bay did win the previous two seasons (30-13 and 24-21), but neither game was particularly high-scoring, and each also went 'under' the posted total. I love the 'under once again in this game, as it falls into an 87-53 Totals system of mine. Also, Minnesota has gone 'under' the total in 16 of 20 games off a win, including 12-1 'under' vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .571 (or better). Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | San Jose State v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -118 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St. Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games. But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses. Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses. Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr). And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry. Take the Rainbow Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | UCLA -1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 30-47 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona. Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado. UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday. Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169. Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents. Take UCLA. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State. This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog. The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday. But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980. The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Take Minnesota. |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah. Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss. The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St. Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating. Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards). The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread. I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats. Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats. Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season. But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC. And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward). Lay the points with USC. Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Georgia State v. UL-Monroe -7 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State. The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite. And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50). I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games. Take Louisiana Monroe. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Charlotte v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte. The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games. But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS. But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win. Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points. Take the Hilltoppers. Conference USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn. LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson. But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7. And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU. I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU). Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week. There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season. LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks. Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Take the points. SEC GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Toledo -7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan. The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15. But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday. For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes. Even worse for CMU: it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win. Take Toledo. |
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10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine. What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points. And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses. Take North Carolina. NCAA Roadkill. |
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10-14-17 | TCU v. Kansas State +6.5 | Top | 26-6 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 21 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU. Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State. However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points. And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss. Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss. Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday. |
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10-14-17 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina. In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home. The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season. But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory. But that's not the best part. If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS. Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)! I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat. Lay the points with Tennessee. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Houston Astros 'under' the total. The first game of an LCS usually features an exceptional pitching match-up, and this one between the Astros and Yankees is no exception. In his last two starts, LHP Dallas Keuchel has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 11 2/3 innings -- including his dominant performance against Boston in game two of the ALDS. And those stats come in second place tonight when compared to his opponent. RHP Masahiro Tanaka has been almost un-hittable in his last two starts, allowing no runs on six hits in 14 innings with an incredible 22 strikeouts and one walk. Despite those strong numbers over his last two, Tanaka is looking for some redemption tonight as his only start vs. the 'Stros this season was a disaster (8 ER on 7 H in just 1 2/3 innings). That was back in May, and the Japanese veteran has been pitching much better of late. But Keuchel's career numbers against the Yanks are ridiculous and he's never had anything but quality starts against them (in seven career starts, including one in the 2015 post-season). Finally, Keuchel's gone 'under' in 17 of 21 at home when priced between -125 and -175. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-17 | Cubs v. Nationals +104 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs. As if the Cubs needed any more reasons to believe in curses, they may be able to blame Mother Nature for one after this season. These two teams were set to go on Tuesday night with the Cubs looking like clear favorites at home with Jake Arrieta scheduled to pitch vs. Tanner Roark. But then the before they could get started, the skies opened up and the game was postponed until Wednesday. While the Cubs stuck with Arrieta -- who had warmed up the night before and then had to sit -- the Nats switched to co-ace Stephen Strasburg, who was not available the night before. The result was a dominant pitching performance and a 5-0 victory for the visitors. Now the Nats come back home having to face a guy who completely shut them down in game one. And while RH Kyle Hendricks is certainly capable of a repeat performance, I believe the Nats' hitters are not going to let this one get away. Dusty Baker will hand the ball to his LH ace, Gio Gonzalez, who -- although not getting a W -- was the starter for the Nats victory in game two on Saturday. Including that win, the Nats are 9-4 in Gonzalez's last 13 starts. And Washington is 71-37 (+21 games on the moneyline) in nighttime games this season. Of course, in a winner-takes-all game such as this, both teams will have all hands on deck, so it wouldn't be surprising to even see Max Scherzer come into the game, at some point. Take DC. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees to go 'under' the total. There's no question Corey Kluber is an ace, but the Indians' RH pitched like anything but in game two of this series. In that game last Friday, Kluber lasted just 2 2/3 innings while allowing six runs on seven hits. The Tribe offense bailed out its ace and won that game in extra innings by a 9-8 final score. The great thing about being the staff ace in the post-season is that, even in a three-out-of-five series, you will likely have a chance to redeem yourself if you had a bad outing in game one or two. And so Kluber has that chance tonight in the final game of the ALDS. And I think he will be stellar. Indeed, prior to his poor outing last week, Kluber had not given up more than two earned runs in nine straight starts. His previous four starts had gone 'under,' as had his previous six starts at home! The Yanks will go with LH (and former Indian) CC Sabathia, who will appear in his 21st post-season game tonight. Sabathia has gone 'under' in 19 of his last 24 starts. Take the 'under.' MLB Total of the Year. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-17 | Nationals +109 v. Cubs | Top | 5-0 | Win | 109 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over Chicago. Stephen Strasburg has officially been named the starter for today's game. Yesterday, he had declined to pitch because he was 'under the weather,' but apparently feels that he's recovered enough to take the ball from manager Dusty Baker. That's good news for the Nats, as he dominated the Cubs in Game 1 of this series, by pitching 7 innings of 3-hit ball (with 10 strikeouts). Even better: in the 2nd half of the season, Strasburg's ERA was a microscopic 0.86 (the 2nd best mark ever for a pitcher with 10+ starts). Jake Arrieta will still be on the bump for the Cubs, and he struggled in his one start vs. Washington this season (5 earned runs in 4 innings). And that dovetails with his career marks of 5.48 ERA and 1.67 WHIP vs. the Nationals. This year, the Cubs are 38-36 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs, while Arrieta is a poor 2-6 when priced as a home favorite of -150 or less. Meanwhile, Strasburg is 54-24 in his daytime starts, and 22-13 on the road when priced from +125 to -125. Take the Nationals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota. Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay. Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller. Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points. Even worse for Minnesota: .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons. And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400. Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss. Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win. Take Chicago. MNF Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-17 | Nationals -119 v. Cubs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs. If the Nats come back to win this series and then go on to their first-ever World Series, they will remember the eighth inning of game two as the one pivotal moment that got them there. With one swing of his bat, not only did Bryce Harper tie the game on Saturday night, but he completely changed the momentum of this series, not to mention the mood of everyone in the dugout, the ballpark, and probably the entire city. The fact that Ryan Zimmerman would give the Nats the lead with another homer three batters later seemed to be a foregone conclusion after what Harper did. This afternoon the Nats finally get to send their ace, RH Max Scherzer, to the mound in this NLDS. Delayed a few days by a mild hamstring strain he suffered in his last regular season start, DC has declared Scherzer ready to go -- likely much to the Cubs dismay. Scherzer is that rare pitcher who can completely control a game from start to finish and even if the Nats put him on a pitch count, they now have a bullpen that can seal the deal. They just need to make sure that the fire that was finally lit under the lineup in the eighth inning on Saturday is still burning. The Nats are 3-1 in Scherzer's four starts against the Cubs since he joined the team. Even better: Scherzer is 35-14 as a road favorite (while the Nationals are 96-57). Meanwhile, Jose Quintana is 6-14 as a home underdog. Take DC. 5* MLB Game of the Year. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees 'under' the total. It's probably a good thing that these two clubs had the day off after the 13-inning marathon they played on Friday. The Yankees let a golden opportunity to tie this series at one game apiece slip through their fingers as they squandered a five-run lead as late as the sixth inning to lose, 9-8. That type of loss has to be at least a little demoralizing, but Yankee Stadium will still be plenty loud tonight as RHP Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill for only his second career post-season start. The Yankees probably set up this rotation on purpose so that Tanaka would get the first home game because he relished pitching at Yankee Stadium this season. In 15 starts here, Tanaka went 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA while in the same number elsewhere, he logged a 4-7 record and had an ERA that was more than double at 6.48. The Indians' RH Carlos Carrasco didn't pitch in the Bronx this season, but he has shown a strong affection for this place throughout his career. In four starts at Yankee Stadium, Carrasco - who won 18 games this season -- has gone 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. The under is 12-4 in Cleveland's last 16 playoff games and 7-2 in NY's last nine playoff games at home. Take the 'under.' AL Total of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game. The Rams have been a surprising offensive team this season, as they're averaging 35.5 points per game (after averaging just 14 ppg last season). But the four teams that Los Angeles has played this year are giving up, on average, 26 points per game. Seattle, on the other hand, will be the best defense the Rams have faced yet, as it's giving up just 19.25 ppg. Over the previous seven seasons, 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams have gone 'under' the total. And the 'under' also falls into a super 86-53 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Baltimore/Oakland game, as it falls into a great Totals system of mine which has cashed 73.3% since 1980. Additionally, Oakland has gone 'over' the total 21-6-2 in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 its last six, and also a perfect 10-0-2 'over' when priced from 40.5 to 44 points. Take the 'over.' Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Miami/Tennessee game, as it falls into 59-27, 108-69 and 152-102 Totals systems of mine. It's true that Miami's offense struggled last week, as it was shutout, 20-0, by New Orleans, and is averaging just 8.3 ppg. But Miami should find the sledding easier against Tennessee. After all, the Titans gave up more points (57) last week than any other team has given up in almost 5 years! And that was against a Texans team which had averaged just 17.6 ppg coming into the game. So, when viewed in that context, it was the most points any team had given up in 21 years vs. a team that averaged less than 18 ppg! And, for additional technical support, consider that NFL teams (like Miami) have gone 'over' the total 70.2% since 1980 if they don't average more than 10 ppg on offense, and have gone 'under' the total in their 3 previous games. Finally, seven of Miami's last eight home games, and nine of Tennessee's last 12 road games have sailed 'over' the total. Take the 'over.' NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills. Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog. That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season. But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday. Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road. That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday. And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points. Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game. Take the Bengals. NFL Roadkill Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants. It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS. But their three ATS losses came at home. However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win! Take the Chargers. |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets. Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory. That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog. Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season. And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes. Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins. Take Cleveland. |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game. It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog. Take Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -116 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars. Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog. Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge. Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points! Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday. The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season. Take Oregon. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +17 | Top | 27-10 | Push | 0 | 54 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St. The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season. But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season. Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents. Take the points with San Jose. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite. But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better). Take the Aggies. |
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10-07-17 | Southern Miss +13.5 v. UTSA | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio. After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite. We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points. Take Southern Miss. |
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10-07-17 | Cubs v. Nationals -117 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
At 5:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs. Yogi Berra was never been a member of a Washington baseball team, but right now his phrase "It's deja vu all over again" seems very appropriate for the Nationals. After finishing the regular season with almost 100 wins and getting home field in the NLDS, the Nats dropped game one last night at home to the Cubs. But it's not the fact that they lost that is shocking, but rather the way they lost. The normally potent DC offense managed a total of just two hits over nine innings while getting shutout, 3-0. Zimmerman, Harper, Murphy and Co. simply couldn't solve the 89 MPH fastball and deceiving change-up of Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. Tonight the lefties will take their turn as the Nats Gio Gonzalez and the Cubs Jon Lester go to the mound in a 'must-win' game for the home team. After a near-Cy Young campaign in 2016, Lester took a big step backwards this season, winning 13 games while posting an ERA almost two runs higher than last season (4.33). Gonzalez had the second-best season of his veteran career, winning 15 games while posting a 2.96 ERA in 32 starts. Gonzalez owns a career 3.06 ERA in 10 starts vs. Chicago. The Nats are 16-5 in Gonzalez's last 21 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take DC. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Colorado State v. Utah State +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State. Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins. The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday. I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games. And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons). Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State -30 | Top | 14-62 | Win | 100 | 86 h 54 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland. Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0. I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes. Take Ohio State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Minnesota +4 v. Purdue | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue. The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite. But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before. Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss. Take the points with Minnesota. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Kent State +23.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois. The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog). Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend. Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season. I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number. Take the points. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia +13.5 v. TCU | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 85 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog. This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points). We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998. Take WVU. |
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10-07-17 | Tulsa v. Tulane -4 | Top | 28-62 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa. The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far. In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start. So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year. One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army. And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown. Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points. Lay it. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo -16 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri -13.5 | Top | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +7.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 112 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
10-19-17 | Canucks v. Bruins -170 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
10-18-17 | Blackhawks v. Blues -117 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -6.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -124 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Steelers +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 61 h 10 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10-15-17 | San Jose State v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -118 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
10-14-17 | UCLA -1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 30-47 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Georgia State v. UL-Monroe -7 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Charlotte v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Toledo -7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
10-14-17 | TCU v. Kansas State +6.5 | Top | 26-6 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 21 m | Show |
10-14-17 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
10-12-17 | Cubs v. Nationals +104 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
10-11-17 | Nationals +109 v. Cubs | Top | 5-0 | Win | 109 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
10-09-17 | Nationals -119 v. Cubs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -116 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +17 | Top | 27-10 | Push | 0 | 54 h 31 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Southern Miss +13.5 v. UTSA | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Cubs v. Nationals -117 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Colorado State v. Utah State +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 30 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State -30 | Top | 14-62 | Win | 100 | 86 h 54 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Minnesota +4 v. Purdue | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Kent State +23.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
10-07-17 | West Virginia +13.5 v. TCU | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 85 h 13 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Tulsa v. Tulane -4 | Top | 28-62 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |