5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific +5½ -109

Easy play here for me with the Tigers as a decently priced road dog against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has been overvalued in each of their first two games, as they failed to cover as a 17.5-point favorite in a 65-52 win over Florida A&M and as a 1.5-point favorite in a 81-75 loss to South Dakota. 

Just so happens that Pacific has faced both of those teams and had pretty similar results. Tigers lost by 10-points at home to South Dakota and crushed Florida A&M 76-54. I not only think Pacific will cover, but I give them a great shot at winning outright. 

Warriors are a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 games vs a team from the West Coast Conference and have failed to cover 4 straight at home. Take Pacific! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Samford +9 -110

I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog against the Bruins. Belmont has some nice pieces back from last year's team that received an at-large big, but they lost two big time playmakers in Dylan Windler (21.3 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and Kevin McClain (16.8 ppg). 

Bruins lost their opener 72-79 at Illinois State as a 5.5-point favorite. I just feel Belmont is getting a little too much love from the books to start the year and this Samford team is not only capable of covering, but winning this game outright. Bulldogs are an impressive 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and a perfect 7-0 the last 2 seasons as a road underdog. Take Samford!  

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas-Little Rock +5½ -109

The Trojans are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Redbirds. Little Rock opened up the season as a 5.5-point dog at home against Belmont and went on to win the game outright 79-72. 

I like their chances of making it two straight upsets with a win against Illinois State, who is working in 8 new players to a team that won just 17-games last year. Redbirds have failed to cover in 5 straight against a team from the Sun Belt, while the Trojans are a solid 5-2 ATS last 7 vs the Missouri Valley. Take Little Rock! 

5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Florida State +6 -105

I really like the value we are getting with the Seminoles as a dog. I think we are getting a great price here on FSU coming off an upset loss on the road at Pitt in their opener. Winning on the road right out of the gate is never easy, especially against a conference opponent.

I also wasn't overly impressed with Florida in their 15 point win as a 22-point favorite at home against North Florida. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Seminoles won this game outright. 

Gators have been an awful bet at home, as they are 3-13 ATS last 16 at the Exactech Arena, including a 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 at home with a total of 130 to 134.5. Take Florida State! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Minnesota +4½ -110

I really like the value here with Minnesota catching points against Oklahoma. I just think this is going to be a tough year for the Sooners, who lost 6 seniors and had two other guys transfer from last year's team. I know the Gophers are reloading as well, but I like what they got coming back. Minnesota was impressive in their opener, destroying Cleveland State 85-50 as a 22-point favorite. Oklahoma is 7-19 ATS as a road favorite under Kruger, including a 4-14 ATS mark on the road when favored by 6 or less. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nebraska -7 -110

It was about as awful a start to the season as Nebraska fans could have hoped for when their team came out and got annihilated 66-47 by UC-Riverside as a 15.5-point home favorite. Not what they were expecting in the debut of Fred Hoiberg. 

However, I think that result has created some big time value here with the Cornhuskers, who are laying single digits against a Southern Utah team that picked to finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky. Even after the loss in the opener, Nebraska is 22-10 ATS last 32 at home. Cornhuskers are also 10-1 ATS last 11 at home if their last game was a non-conference game. Take Nebraska! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird CASH COW on Fairfield +4½ -110

I like the Stags to cash in here as a small home dog against the Minutemen. UMASS has been a mess under Matt McCall and are likely to struggle some early with a bunch of new players and completely revamped coaching staff. 

While it came in a loss, I was really impressed with Fairfields 64-68 loss to Bucknell in their season opener. That's a Bucknell team that had 3 starters back from a 21-win team and are the biggest threats to Colgate for the Patriot League title. Take Fairfield! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Grand Canyon +8 -109

I really like the value here with Grand Canyon as a near double-digit dog at home against Illinois. The fact that the Fighting Illini are laying this small a number against a team from the WAC really tells you all you need to know. 

The Antelopes are a popular pick to win the WAC this year and they landed a big time transfer in TCU's Jaylen Fisher. Not to mention we already saw Illinois struggle against a small conference team, as they only won by 8 at home against Nicholls State in their opener and they were a 22.5-point favorite in that one. Take Grand Canyon! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marist +7½ -110

I just feel like this is way too many points for the Keydets to be laying against the Red Foxes. I get Marist isn't very good and is expected to finish near the bottom of the MAAC, but not a lot is expected out of VMI either. 

While the Red Foxes will be taking the court for the first time this season, the Keydets opened on Tuesday at East Carolina and get destroyed 80-68 as a 8.5-point dog. VMI was lucky to only lose by 12, as they shot just 37% from the field, while allowing the Pirates to connect on 53%. That's a ECU team that won just 10 games last year. Take Marist! 

4* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Virginia -2½ -110

I got no problem laying the short number here with the defending champs on the road against the Orange. No denying that Virginia lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but time after time TOny Bennett has made it work with whatever he has on his roster. To think this team won't be one of the best in the ACC is a mistake. 

Syracuse is a team I think could be down this year. They lost 3 of their top 4 scores and the backcourt situation doesn't look ideal. Sure they will play tough defense under Jim Boeheim, but I don't think that will be enough here. I just don't see Syracuse scoring enough to pull off the upset. Take Virginia! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Purdue -19 -110

I got no problem laying the big number with Purdue at home against the likes of Green Bay. I think people are sleeping on the Boilermakers a little bit due to them losing Carson Edwards, but this is a team that has the good to contends with the likes of Michigan State and others for the Big Ten title.

They might not have the superstar on their roster like Edwards, but they are extremely deep and I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep pace. History agrees, as the Boilermakers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Purdue! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Mary's -3 -115

You might be wondering why Wisconsin is getting points against the Gaels. It's for good reason and I think St Mary's is going to make easy work of a Badgers team in transition. Wisconsin only loses two starters, but they lost one of the best players in the country in Ethan Happ. For a team that ranked 276th in scoring at 68.6 ppg, I think the offense is going to have a hard time keeping pace with better competition. 

The Gaels have all their key guys back from last year's NCAA Tournament team that won 22-games and beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, despite many thinking it was going to be a down year for St Mary's. They also got some key guys back from injury and this is one they need for their resume come March. Take St. Mary's! 

4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS HEAVY HITTER on Valparaiso +3 -110

I think we are getting a great price on the Crusaders. Toledo is one of the better programs in the MAC, so they get a lot of love from experts. I just think they are getting a little too much coming into the 2019-20 season. Sure they won 25 games last year, but they lost two of their best players in Jaelan Sanford and Nate Nagigato. 

Valpo went just 15-18 last year and with the news that leading scorer and rebounder, Derrick Smits left for Butler, not much is expected of this team. They got back a couple of double-digit scorers, while adding in 3 transfers. Eron Gordon from Seton Hall, Nick Robinson from St. Joe's and ZIon Morgan from UNLV. I think the wrong team is favored. Take Valparaiso! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -5 -115

I like the Tigers to win here easily at home against ACC rival Virginia Tech. Clemson lost a couple guys to ACL injuries that they hoped would help this year, but there's still plenty of talent on deck for the Tigers to build on last year's 9-9 finish in conference play. 

As for the Hokies, they are a team in major transition after losing an elite head coach in Buzz Williams. Not only that, Williams didn't leave new head coach Mike Young a whole lot to work with. Hokies lost 4 starters and have to replace their top 5 scores from last year.

It's also worth noting that Clemson got a bit of a head start, as they played and won the World University Games in Italy. That time to build chemistry is huge and should have them ready to roll to start the year. Take Clemson! 

5* NCAAB - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas +1 -109

Most are going to look at this and just blindly take Duke because of how much respect this program has with Coach K. Everyone knows the Blue Devils lost a lot from last year's team, but the assumption is that they just reload. I get it and that's definitely true to a point, but I got a hard time believing Duke has anywhere close to as talented a Top 3 as they had last year with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. 

Things didn't look good for KU early on in the offseason, but that didn't last long. Jayhawks got two guys back they thought were leaving early in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. THey also were not expecting Sivio De Sousa to win his appeal and  be eligible to play. I like the mix of youth and experience on this team and while Duke might have the better NBA talent, I think it's going to take time for the Blue Devils to reach their full potential with how young they are. Take Kansas! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Green Bay -

Love the value here with the Phoenix, as they should have no problem covering the small number against the Tigers. Wisconsin-GB has gone 14-3 on their home floor this season and are 8-1 ATS in last 9 home lined games. They just beat CS-Bakersfield by 15 as a 6-point favorite last time out and prior to that beat FIU by 30 as a 4-point favorite. 

Phoenix have gone 9-1 ATS last 10 home games when coming off a game as a home favorite and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning by an average of 17.4 ppg. Take Green Bay!

4* Auburn/Kentucky Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Auburn +

I really like the value here with the Tigers in their showdown with SEC rival Kentucky in the Elite 8. I think we are getting a good price on Auburn because of the loss of Okeke to a torn ACL. While that's a tough blow at this juncture of the season, the Tigers are more than capable of winning without him. 

The most important thing is Auburn is hot right now. They certainly liked the looks of things at the Sprint Center, as they nailed 17 of 37 (46%) of their 3-pointers against the Tar Heels. A game they absolutely dominated. Kentucky on the other hand is coming off a grueling 62-58 win over Houston, where they were lucky to win. I think Auburn is the fresher team and they won't be the least bit intimidated by this Wildcats team. Take Auburn! 

4* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia -

Easy play here on Virginia for me. The Cavaliers made history last year becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 and are now just 1 win away from making the Final 4. The fact that they are in the Elite 8 and haven't really played great is something I really like, as we are bound to see them put it all together. 

I'm confident that time will be tonight against what has to be a tired Purdue team that just played an overtime thriller in their 99-94 upset of No. 2 Tennessee. Boilermakers have shot better than 50% from the field in each of their last 2 games. I think they are in for a big wake up call against the stingy Virginia defense. On the flip side, I think the Cavaliers will be able to score against this Purdue defense. 

Boilermakers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a game where they allowed 90 or more points, while Virginia is 23-8 ATS last 31 after giving up less than 50. Also, Cavaliers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Virginia! 

5* Sweet 16 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Houston +

Kentucky might be the better seed, but Houston is the better team and I'll take them as a dog all day against the Wildcats. Cougars absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, taking down No. 14 Georgia State 84-55 and No. 11 Ohio State 74-59. This is a team that while ranked, is a lot better than they get credit for. 

A lot of people forget that their run in last year's tournament ended with a heartbreaking 64-63 loss to Michigan, as the Wolverines hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That same Michigan team made it all the way to the title game. Houston could very well be the surprise team to not only make the Final 4, but win the whole thing. 

Cougars rank 12th in defensive efficiency and are tops in the country in effective field goal defense. Kentucky is not a great offensive team and chances are they will either be without their leading score PJ Washington or he plays at less than 100%. Wildcats also likely lose to Wofford if their best player doesn't have arguably his worst game of the year (0-12 on 3-pointers). The Cougars are simply the better team. Take Houston! 

3* Sweet 16 No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Purdue +

I really like the value here with Purdue getting points against the Vols. I think there's a lot being made of the Boilermakers 0-4 record in Sweet 16 games under Painter, but 3 of those came against a No. 1 seed and last year's ugly loss to Texas Tech came with one of their best players in center Isaac Haas on the sidelines (broke his arm in the 1st round). 

For whatever reason people don't want to give this Purdue team the props it deserves for finishing tied on top the Big Ten regular-season standings. Not too mention they looked as good as anyone in the Round of 32, absolutely destroying the defending champs 87-61. Tennessee on the other hand has beat No. 15 Colgate by 7 and needed OT to get past No. 10 Iowa. Vols are like a Big Ten team, which I think only benefits the Boilermakers. 

Boilermakers are 26-14 ATS last 40 non-conference, while Vols are a mere 8-20 ATS last 28 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Take Purdue! 

5* NCAAB Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -

I think the books are begging for money here on FSU by setting this line as high as they did, knowing that Gonzaga is the far superior team in this matchup and should easily win here by double-digits. 

I think some of it has to do with how good the ACC has been and the fact that the Seminoles whooped the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16 last year, but it has a lot of people on this FSU team. Seminoles were certainly impressive in their win over Murray State, but the Racers were a No. 12 seed, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. FSU shot lights out in that game at 50.7% and this is simply not a great shooting team. They had had failed to hit 40% in 4 of their previous 6. 

Gonzaga on the other has failed to shoot 50% or better from the field a mere 6 times the entire season. This is not the same offense that FSU shutdown a season ago. Bulldogs have 4 guys in double-figures and 4 of their top 5 scorers shoot 36% or better from deep. Seminoles won't be able to keep pace. Take Gonzaga! 

5* Texas/Colorado NIT GAME OF THE YEAR  on Colorado +

I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes as a decently priced road dog against the Longhorns. Colorado has really been playing great basketball for a while now. The Buffaloes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. They beat a really strong Dayton team to open up the NIT and then destroyed Norfolk State by 16. 

Texas on the other hand has squeaked by against South Dakota State and Xavier in the NIT and have just simply been way overvalued of late. Longhorns have failed to cover in 5 straight and are just 7-15 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. Texas has also failed to cover 5 straight against a winning record. 

The Buffaloes are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU win, 10-2 ATS last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team from the Big 12. Take Colorado! 

4* College Insider Tourn PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International +

Big time value here with the Panthers as a dog. Even though they are on the road, my numbers have this closer to a pick'em with a slight edge to FIU. The Phoenix won 102-94 on th  road at East Tennessee State in their first game of the CIT. Scoring 100+ is impressive, but it's just as bad giving up 92 points and 50% shooting. 

FIU scored 87 on the road against Texas State and they should be able to have their way offensively in this one. Panthers are also a team you want to back in this spot, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog! Take Florida International! 

4* Norfolk St/Colorado NIT VEGAS INSIDER on Norfolk State +

Big time value with the Spartans as a double-digit dog. Norfolk State was a 16-point road dog at Alabama in the opening round of the NIT and beat the Crimson Tide outright 80-79. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans pulled off another upset against Colorado, but I'm confident they will at worst keep this within the number. 

Colorado was fortunate to come away with a cover in their first game, as they scraped by Dayton 78-73 as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffaloes really didn't deserve to win that game, as they shot just 44% from the field, while Dayton connected on 55% of their attempts. 

It was a rare cover for Colorado this time of year, as the Buffaloes are still just 4-15 ATS over their last 19 post-season tournament games. Colorado is also just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Norfolk State! 

4* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Duke -

The Blue Devils came out flat and only led No. 16 seed North Dakota State by 4-points at the half. That was the wake-up call this team needed, as they outscored the Bison 54-35 in the 2nd half. I'm confident Coach K will make sure his guys don't come out flat again against UCF. 

I also think there's a little extra incentive here for Duke, as they face the Knights 7'6 Tako Fall, who has already made a little jab at Zion Williamson. I'm expecting a big day for Zion and wouldn't be surprised if they got Fall into foul trouble and wore him down with their ability to get out in transition. 

Duke is simply the most talented team in the country. They have the two best players in Williamson and RJ Barrett and I think they are going to continue to make easy work of the field on their way to the Final 4. Take Duke! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -

I love the value here with LSU at basically a pick'em against the Terps. I think the perception with the Tigers right now is there are too many distractions for them to make a deep run. After watching this team against Yale I think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder. 

As for Maryland, I just haven't been impressed with this team down the stretch. Terps went just 3-3 to close out the regular-season and were bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tourny by Nebraska. They were extremely fortunate to get by Belmont on Thursday and I just think they are way outclassed here. 

LSU has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3. They are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against the Big Ten. After failing to cover against Belmont, Maryland is now 1-7 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Take LSU! 

4* Indiana/Arkansas NIT PLAY OF THE DAY  on Indiana -

The Hoosiers didn't let the fact that they missed out on the NCAA Tournament keep them from showing up in their NIT opener, as they cruised to a 89-72 win at home. Indiana has won 4 of their last 5 and are sizzling 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. 

I absolutely love the value here with the Hoosiers at home in this one. Indiana is 14-5 at home, while Arkansas is just 6-9 away from home. That's why you can throw out the fact that the Razorbacks beat the Hoosiers 73-72 at home earlier this season. I actually think that's favors Indiana, who will use that as motivation. 

Indiana is 13-4 ATS last 17 at home off a win by 10 or more, 11-3 ATS last 14 at home after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 at home when they come in having covered 5-6 of their last 7 games. Take Indiana! 

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State +

The Big Ten showed really well on Thursday and I expect more of the same on Friday. We saw a Minnesota team that finished 9-11 in the Big Ten whoop up on Louisville and I think we are going to see the same thing here with the Buckeyes in Friday's showdown with ISU. 

Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament so people are on this team, but they were just 9-9 in the Big 12 regular-season and went just 1-5 over their final 6 before winning 3 in a row in the Big 12 Tournament. Cyclones rely a lot on the jump shot and this Buckeyes team can lock down defensively. If Ohio State simply shoots decent they win this game. Take Ohio State! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Kentucky +

I like the value here with the Norse as a double-digit dog. I just think Texas Tech is getting a little too much respect here. Sure they played great down the stretch, but it's like everyone is giving them a pass for their ugly loss to West Virginia in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament. 

I just think teams like Texas Tech, who rely so much on their defense, are primed for upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia is a prime example of that. Northern Kentucky is better than people think and I fully expect them to give the Red Raiders all they can handle in this one. Norse are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, while Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Northern Kentucky! 

3* Early Bird NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +

Really like the value here with the Hawkeyes at the price. Very few are giving Iowa a chance to win this matchup, much like yesterday's No. 7 vs No. 10 matchup in the East region. Few had No. 10 Minnesota winning and they dominated No. 7 Louisville. Iowa is a better team than the Gophers and I think the Hawkeyes will not only cover but win this game outright. 

Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS last 10 games played on a neutral site, while Cincinnati is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games overall, 3-7 ATS last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament and 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa! 

5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova -

I love the value here with Villanova in this one. I think people are sleeping on this Wildcats team because they weren't as dominant as the team that won it all last year. Chances are they won't win the title for a 3rd time in 4 years, but I see absolutely no reason they don't make easy work of a St. Mary's team that wouldn't be here if Gonzaga didn't lay an egg in the WCC Tournament finale. 

This is also the same Gaels team that failed time after time against the better teams they faced in non-conference, losing to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, UC Irvine and LSU. St Mary's is a team that wants to play slow and that plays right into the hands of how Villanova would prefer the game to go. Wildcats have the two best players on the floor in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall. 

Jay Wright's team won both the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big East and you can't ignore the success they have had in this thing. Villanova attempted the 6th most 3-pointers in the country and ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. If the outside shots are falling they are almost impossible to stay with. 

Outside of that win over Gonzaga in the WCC Title, St Mary's two best wins were against New Mexico State and San Diego. Let's also not forget they lost by 14 at home to the Bulldogs and by 48 at Gonzaga in the two regular-season meetings. Take Villanova! 

3* NCAA Tournament UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +

There's no denying that LSU is an extremely talented basketball team. They had the best record of an team in a pretty good SEC this year. Unfortunately for them, thins took a turn for the worse late in the year, as head coach Will Wade was suspended and has created a lot of distractions. They beat Vanderbilt without their coach in the regular-season finale, but the Commodores didn't win a conference game all season, so that's not saying much. They had a chance to make a statement in the SEC Tournament, but were knocked in their first game by Florida. 

Wade isn't coming back for the NCAA Tournament and I just think not having him and all the other distractions outside of the locker room really swings thing in favor of Yale. The Ivy League has shown well in the NCAA Tournament of late, especially against the spread. Not to mention the Bulldogs are a cohesive unit that returned all 5 starters from last season. That includes an NBA talent in Miye Oni. 

Yale has covered 11 of their last 14 on a neutral site and are a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. I just think this is a lot of points for LSU to be laying when a win is not a sure thing. Take Yale! 

5* Nebraska/Butler NIT VEGAS INSIDER Top Play  on Butler +

This is just too good a number to pass up on with Butler. Nebraska was one of those teams that were on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. More times than not, teams who were on the bubble and don't make it, really struggle to play well in that first game of the NIT, regardless if it's at home or not. 

Not only is that a big factor into the value with Butler, but Nebraska is also dealing with all the off-court rumors regarding Fred Hoiberg. He's the leading candidate to take over for Miles and that would be a big time hire for this program. I just think the focus is already on the future and not this game. 

As bad as Butler played down the stretch, I think they are going to show up here and give a strong effort. That not only makes them a strong play at this price, but I give them a great chance of winning the game outright. Cornhuskers have gone just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team from the Big East and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 when coming off a loss. Take Butler! 

4* NCAA Tournament First Four NO-BRAINER on Temple +

Give me Temple and the points in Tuesday's play-in game against Belmont. The Bruins are a great story and I got no problem with them being included in the field of 68, I just think the story around this team has them overvalued against a very solid Owls team. 

Temple played in a pretty tough American Athletic and held their own against the top teams in the conference. They got a dynamic backcourt with Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr, who combined to average 36.2 ppg. These two should feast on a pretty bad Belmont defense, that lets team get easy looks from deep. Owls are also one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers and making opposing offenses uncomfortable. Bruins on the other hand are one of the worst at forcing turnovers. Wrong team is favored in this one. Take Temple! 

3* NIT No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wright State +

Love the value here with the Raiders as a huge underdog against the Tigers. Clemson didn't expect to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, as they opened up the season in the Top 25. I think it's going to be really tough for them to find the motivation to play up to their true potential in the NIT. 

No question they are the better team, but I just think Wright State is going to want this game a lot more. The Raiders were definitely playing well down the stretch, as they reached the Horizon title game. They also showed well in non-conference against some quality teams. 

It's also worth pointing out that while Clemson went a solid 13-4 SU on their home floor, they were just 8-9 ATS at home. Tigers have also failed to cover 5 of their last 9 out of conference. Raiders have covered 8 of their last 11 overtall and are a perfect 6-0 when coming off a loss by 10 or more. Take Wright State! 

4* Mich St/Michigan Big Ten Champ NO-BRAINER on Michigan +

I'm extremely confident in the Wolverines getting their revenge against the Spartans. Michigan State won both regular-season meetings, but the Wolverines could have taken both of those games. Either way, Michigan is playing their best basketball when it matters the most. Which is nothing new under John Beilein. Wolverines whooped up on Iowa 74-53 and then rolled Minnesota 76-49. They are now 8-3 ATS last 11 overall and 12-4 ATS last 16 tournament games. 

Michigan is 10-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons when revenging a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot when revenging a road loss by 10 or more. Michigan State on the other hand is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games played on a neutral site. Take Michigan! 

5* NCAAB Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +

Love the value here with the Panthers at basically a pick'em against the Bobcats. Georgia State closed out the regular-season on quite a run. The Panthers won 3 straight and 6 of their final 7 games, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. Texas State on the other hand lost their final two before getting back in the win column yesterday with a victory over South Alabama. 

Note that while the Bobcats had to play on Friday, Georgia State was not in action, giving them a major edge in rest. Texas State did win the most recent meeting on the road, but that's almost a positive for us, as the Panthers are 31-14-4 ATS when playing with revenge and have covered 5 straight in this spot. Take Georgia State! 

4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State -

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Spartans. I know both teams failed to cover in their quarterfinal matchups on Friday, but I though Michigan State looked the better team and there's no question they have the more talent on their roster.

Wisconsin had all kinds of rest against a Nebraska team that is short-handed and playing their 3rd game in 3 days and barely came away with a win. Badgers big man Ethan Happ scored just 4 points and if he's not on his game in this one, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. 

These two only met once during the regular-season, but that was at Wisconsin and the Spartans won that contest by 8. If they can win by 8 on the road, I'm confident they can win by 6 or more on a neutral court, especially with how well they are playing down the stretch. 

Spartans are now 21-8 ATS last 29 games when listed as the favorite and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 75 or more points in 3 straight games. They have also covered 18 of their last 23 against a team with a winning record, while the Badgers are just 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall. Take Michigan State! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky -

I got zero problem here laying double-digits with Kentucky against the Crimson Tide. Wildcats might not have won the SEC regular-season title, but I still think they are the best team in the conference. Calipari always has this team peaking come tournament time and I expect a big time effort here against Alabama, who handed them one of their 3 losses in conference play. 

Wildcats are 34-18 ATS in their last 52 SEC Tournament games and are 28-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and are 2-8 ATS in this spot this season. Take Kentucky! 

5* NCAAB American Tournament TOP PLAY on Cincinnati -

I really like the number here with Cincinnati, as I see the Bearcats beating the Mustangs by double-digits easy. Not only is Cincinnati the better team, but they are going to be desperate for a win after closing out the regular-season with back to back losses. Not that those were bad losses, as they lost at UCF and at home to Houston. 

SMU was able to beat Tulsa yesterday, but while they were playing the Bearcats were resting and this Mustangs team has really struggled away from home and in similar spots. SMU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after playing their previous game as a favorite, 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road after a win and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after 2 straight wins (won regular-season finale against USF). Take Cincinnati! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Davidson -

This is too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Davidson closed out the regular-season with 3 straight wins and in the most recent meeting with the Hawks they won by 8 at home. Key here to an even wider margin of victory is the fact that the Wildcats will be playing on 5 days of rest, while St. Joes is on no rest after a grueling up and down 92-86 win over Duquesne on Thursday. 

That was also a rare win away from home for the Hawks, who are just 4-13 in true road games/neutral site games this season. St. Joe's has also been a great team to fade off a win, as they are 2-10 ATS last 12 in this spot. Wildcats on the other hand are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite. Take Davidson! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten Tournament TOP PLAY on Michigan State -

This might seem like a big number for the Spartans to be laying, but I see Michigan State having zero problem whooping up on the Buckeyes. For starters, they have already done it twice. First they won by 9 as a mere 2-point road favorite in Columbus and then they won by 18 as a 12-point home favorite in the rematch. 

This is also a Michigan State team that in typical Tom Izzo fashion is peaking at the perfect time. After losing 3 straight in late Jan/early Feb the Spartans have gone 7-1 over their last 8, with the only loss coming by 1-point at Indiana after a big win at rival Michigan. 

On top of all that, Michigan State will be getting back one of their best players in big man Nick Ward, who has missed over a month after suffering a broken hand. Spartans are 15-5 ATS last 20 against Big Ten opponents and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off back-to-back home wins by 10 or more. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Early Bird Tournament Top Play  on Houston -

The Cougars will have no problem covering the double-digit spread against the Huskies in Friday's AAC quarterfinal action. Houston solidified itself as the best team in the American Athletic with a 85-69 win at Cincinnati in the regular-season finale. Right now the Cougars are projected as a No. 3 seed, but likely need to at least make the title game to avoid slipping back to a No. 4 seed. 

I just don't see UConn being able to make this thing competitive. The Huskies knocked off USF yesterday, but now must play on no rest against the best team in the conference. Only meeting this season the Cougars won by 8 on the road. Might not seem like much, but UConn is a much better team at home. Huskies were just 3-11 on the road. 

UConn is also 0-9 ATS last 9 when playing 3rd time in a week and 0-6 ATS last 6 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days or less. Cougars are 11-4 ATS last 15 when playing only their 2nd game in a week and 12-4 ATS last 16 on the road after winning 15 of their last 20. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB Mountain West Tournament TOP PLAY on Utah State -

I look for Utah State to lay it on the Lobos Thursday night in the MWC Quarterfinals. The Aggies are one of the better teams in the country that no one knows about. Utah State is 25-6. They lost just 3 games in conference play and their 3 non-conference losses were to Arizona St, BYU and Houston. 

They come into this one riding a 7-game winning streak and will be playing on more than a week of rest, as they lost took the court on March 5th at Colorado State. New Mexico had to play in the opening round of the MWC tournament and while they beat Wyoming 78-68, they only shot 36% from the field, giving them 3 straight games under 42% from the field. Aggies beat the Lobos by 16 in the most recent meeting and are a dominant 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Utah State! 

5* NCAAB Pac-12 Tournament TOP PLAY on Washington -

I'm shocked the Huskies aren't a bigger favorite here. Washington failed to cover their last 4, but a lot of that I think was due to complacency, as they had really had their way with the Pac-12. They were just 2-2 in their last 4 games, yet were still a full 3-games ahead of 2nd place Arizona State. 

I'm confident the Huskies will be 100% locked in for the Pac-12 Tournament and they have a big advantage here playing on 4 days of rest, while USC is forced to play on no rest after a big win over Arizona in the opening round on Wednesday. I just don't trust this Trojans team at all. They were a mere 2-7 in their previous 9 games and lost by 13 in the only meetings against the Huskies. Take Washington! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nevada -

I have zero problem laying the big number here with the Wolf Pack against Boise State. Nevada was 15-3 in MWC play, while the Broncos were just 7-11. Sure Boise State pulled out a nice 66-57 win and cover over Colorado State as 3.5-point favorite, but this still a team that went a mere 2-8 in their final 10. 

I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace with Nevada with them playing on no rest and the Wolf Pack playing on 4 days of rest. While Boise played Nevada tough on their home floor, the Wolf Pack won the most recent meeting by 20 and both times they shot 50% or better from the field. Take Nevada! 

5* NCAAB Big East Tournament TOP PLAY on Xavier +

The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Xavier was a great team to fade early on in the season, but the Musketeers have come alive down the stretch. Xavier is 6-1 both SU and ATS over their last 7 games and that includes a 12-point win at home against Villanova. 

Creighton has also caught fire, as they come in having won 5 straight, but it was a pretty favorable stretch as 3 of the 5 were at home and one was on the road at DePaul. They did have a nice win at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles struggled down the stretch and were coming off a crushing loss at Villanova. 

Bluejays are just 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6, while Musketeers are 29-13 ATS last 42 road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB Atlantic 10 Tournament TOP PLAY on George Mason -

The Patriots should have no problem covering the number here against the Colonials. George Washington was able to knock off UMass yesterday in the opening round of the A-10 tournament, but only won by 4 and shot just 31% from the field in the process. Prior to that win the Colonials had lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

These two teams played twice and George Mason won both times, including a 16-point win at George Washington in the most recent meeting less than a week ago (last Saturday). Not only are the Patriots the better team, but them playing on 4 days rest and the Colonials on no rest is a major advantage that I don't think is being factored into the number here. 

Note that George Washington's cover against UMass was only their 8th cover away from home in their last 30 lined games. Colonials are also 0-7 ATS last 7 road games off a conference win and 1-8 ATS last 9 when revenging a home loss. Take George Mason -7.5! 

5* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -

I'm shocked the Orange aren't a bigger favorite in this one. Pitt has won two straight, but it's come against Notre Dame and Boston College. Prior to the back-to-back victories the Panthers had lost 13 straight. I just don't see the Panthers being competitive at all here playing on no rest against a hungry Syracuse team that has had 3 days off. 

One of the reasons I think the Orange are showing value is the fact that they lost their final 2 and 4 of their last 5 overall. However, three of those losses came against Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. The other was a road game at Clemson in what was the Tigers final home game. 

Pittsburgh are 5-13 TS last 18 games as an underdog and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when revenging a loss where they scored 60 or less (lost 65-56 at home in last meeting). Orange are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss by 10 or more and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Syracuse! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC A&T -

This is just too good a price to pass up on the Aggies in Wednesday's quarterfinal against Coppin State in the MEAC Tournament. North Carolina A&T finished 13-3, just one game back of top seed Norfolk State and 3 ahead of 3rd place. The Eagles were just 7-9 and are at a big disadvantage in this one. 

The Aggies haven't played since the 7th, giving them almost a week off, while Coppin State was forced to play yesterday. College teams are not like the pros and often will really struggle when playing on no rest. I think that's definitely the case for bad teams like the Eagles. Aggies won by 9 in the only meeting during the regular-season and should have no problem winning by at least that many this time around. Take North Carolina A&T! 

5* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Notre Dame comes in off a win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday thanks to some ridiculous shooting in the first half, which saw the Irish put up 52 points and take a 20-point lead. Notre Dame managed just 26-points in the 2nd half and barely held on for the win. 

The Irish had lost 7 straight and the offense had really been atrocious during that stretch. I just really have a hard time seeing Notre Dame being able to do enough offensively against a very good Louisville defense to keep this one respectable. Cardinals went just 3-7 over their final 10, but note that 5 of the 7 losses came against the top 4 teams in Duke, UNC, FSU and Virginia. 

In the only meeting between the two teams this season, Louisville won by 14 and did so despite going a miserable 2 for 22 from behind the 3-point line. Note they still shot 48% from the field overall and were +19 in rebounds. Simply put, this is a complete mismatch and would take something crazy like the Cardinals shooting under 10% from deep for the Irish to sniff a cover. Take Louisville! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Norfolk State -

The Spartans should have no problem winning here by double-digits against the Bulldogs in the quarterfinals of the MEAC Tournament. Norfolk State was the No. 1 seed in the tournament and with that got a first round bye. South Carolina State on the other hand finished 5-11 in league play and will be playing on no rest after taking on Maryland-Eastern Shore on Tuesday. 

These two only played once during the regular season and while the Spartans only won by in that matchup, it was on the road. The Bulldogs are a mere 3-19 on the season in games played away from home. South Carolina State is just 1-4 ATS last 5 off a cover, while the Spartans are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Norfolk State! 

3* NCAAB Late Night WCC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME  on Gonzaga -

Hard to not take a shot here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Gaels in tonight's WCC title game. Gonzaga won by a ridiculous 48-points at home in the first meeting with St Mary's and by 14 on the road just a couple weeks ago. I think the biggest thing here is we know we are going to get a max effort from the Bulldogs with a conference championship on the line. 

The books just haven't been able to make the proper adjustments on this team. Gonzaga is currently 21-11 ATS for the season and have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record. They are also 15-5 ATS last 20 off a win by 15+ points and 7-1 ATS last 8 after leading in their previous game by 20 or more at the half. Take Gonzaga! 

5* America East GAME OF THE MONTH on Binghamton +

I love the value here with the Bearcats as a massive dog against the Catamounts in Tuesday's semifinal action of the America East Tournament. All Binghamton did in the quarterfinals was take down No. 2 seed Stony Brook 78-72 as a 11-point underdog. The Bearcats had 3 different players score 16+ points, led by freshman Sam Sessoms 26 points. 

I'm not saying Binghamton has a realistic shot of upsetting Vermont, but it's not asking a lot for them to keep this within the number. These two teams played in late February and the Bearcats gave the Catamounts all they could handle in a 69-63 loss as a 14.5-point dog. 

Note the books have been really overvaluing Vermont of late. The Catamounts are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and have covered just 1 of their last 5 off a SU win. Take Binghamton! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston -

Easy play here for me on the Cougars to cover the big number against the Dragons in the Quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. Charleston finished as the No. 3 seed in the conference and come into this thing having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games. On the flip side of this, Drexel is a mere 3-7 in their last 10 and have lost 5 of their last 6. 

Last time out they got annihilated by 24 at home against Northeastern, as they gave up 90 points and let the Huskies shoot over 53% from the field. I just don't see the Dragons being able to keep this within single-digits. Drexel is 2-11 ATS last 13 off a conference home loss and have lost in this spot by an average of 11.1 ppg. Take Charleston! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER  on SMU +

Don't fall into the trap here with South Florida. The betting public is all over the Bulls as a small home favorite, but the smart money is pounding the other side. I get that SMU has lost 4 straight and are just 1-9 in their last 10, but the books aren't stupid. 

South Florida hasn't been a whole lot better of late. While the Bulls come in off a win at Tulane, the Green Wave haven't won a single conference game all season. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight. 

SMU has covered 3 of their last 5, including last time out in a 11-point loss at Houston as a 13-point dog. That outcome is worth noting, as the Mustangs have gone 17-4 ATS last 21 on the road off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog. Take SMU! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +

The books have completely missed the mark here. No way should the Matadors be this big of a dog against the Anteaters. These two played back in January at Northridge and while Irvine won the game by 6-points, they were very fortunate in doing so. The Anteaters shot just 36% from the field, while the Matadors did as they pleased offensively on their way to 48% shooting. I expect more of the same and wouldn't be surprised at all if Northridge won the game outright. 

The Matadors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 inside conference play. Irvine is just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they hosted the Matadors and are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home after playing 3 straight on the road. Take CS-Northridge! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State -

No one gave the Spartans much of a chance of winning at Michigan earlier this season, as they had just lost Nick Ward to injury and were already without Joshua Langford. Michigan State proved everyone wrong and won 77-70 in Ann Arbor as a 4.5-point dog. Surprisingly, the public is once again on the Wolverines. 

That's fine with me, as it's created some big time value here with the Spartans as a small home favorite. Michigan State almost always exceeds expectations in big games. They are a ridiculous 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Spartans are also 17-5 ATS last 22 off a SU win and 34-16-1 ATS last 51 at home. Take Michigan State! 

3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Washington State +

I see a ton of value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Beavers. I get that Washington State comes in having lost 4 in a row and failed to cover in all 4, which is definitely playing into the number here. With this being the home finale for the Cougars and no real incentive here for the Beavers, I not only think Washington State will cover, but I give them a good shot at winning this game outright. 

Oregon State has lost 3 straight and are just 5-5 in their last 10 overall. That's not the kind of team that should be laying this kind of number on the road. Beavers are also a dreadful 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a bad team that's won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take Washington State! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kentucky -

Kentucky should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Gators. A lot of people are going to write-off the Wildcats in this game because the perception is there's nothing to play for. Just to earn a 3-way share of the SEC regular-season title, Kentucky needs both Tennessee and LSU to lose. They also figure to be playing this one without one of their better players in Reid Travis. 

I don't think it will matter one bit. There's definitely going to be motivation here in the final home game for Kentucky and I don't see them looking past the Gators with how well Florida played against them in the first meeting. Kentucky ended up winning the game by 11-points, despite  trailing in the 2nd half by 11. 

This is also a really tough spot for Florida, who are coming off an absolutely devastating overtime loss at home to LSU, which followed a shocking home loss to Georgia. I just don't think there's enough fight left for the Gators to keep this close. Take Kentucky! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +

I really like the value here with the Tigers getting points at home against the Volunteers. Everyone is going to be picking Tennessee, but there's not as much incentive here as people think. Sure the Vols can earn a share of the SEC title, but as long as LSU takes care of Vanderbilt at home Tennessee has no shot at the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. 

On top of that, Auburn is no pushover and the Tigers come into this game in great form. Auburn has won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. They are a dominant 14-2 on their home floor, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 22.3 ppg. 

The Vols also come in on a 3-game winning streak, but are just 12-30 ATS last 42 on the road when coming off 3 straight conference wins. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Tigers on the other hand are 13-4 ATS last 17 at home when off 2 straight conference wins. Take Auburn! 

4* Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio -

The Bobcats should have no problem beating the Red Hawks at home. Both of these teams are near the bottom of the standings in the MAC and I just don't think Ohio is getting enough respect on their home floor. The Bobcats are 10-5 at home compared to 3-11 on the road for the season. Red Hawks on the other hand are 5-10 on the road compared to 10-5 at home. 

Simply put, don't be fooled by the fact that Miami won the first meeting at home by 20-points. Ohio couldn't have shot much worse, as they were 35.6% from the field and 11-21 (52.4%) from the free throw line. Ohio has won 17 of the last 21 home games against the Red Hawks. Home team is 9-2 ATS last 11 meetings in the series and the Bobcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 at home in the series. Take Ohio! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Loyola -

This is an easy play here for me, as No.1 seed Loyola-Chicago has a huge advantage here against the Crusaders. While the Ramblers have been off since last Saturday, Valparaiso will be playing on no rest as they opened up the MVC Tournament last night against Indiana State. Plus, the early start time only adds to the edge for Loyola. 

The Ramblers didn't have the regular-season that a lot of people expected after their FInal 4 appearance last year, but I think they are primed to win this tournament. They played exceptionally well in their last two, beating a red-hot UNI team on the road and then absolutely thrashing Bradley 81-68. Loyola also won and covered both regular-season meetings against the Crusaders. 

Ramblers are 25-12 ATS last 37 off a conference win and 16-6 ATS last 22 off a conference win by 10 or more. They are also 7-3 in their last 10 neutral site games and 17-7 in their last 24 away from home when playing just the second time in a week span. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU +

I really like the value here with the Mustangs as a big road dog against the Cougars. There's no denying that Houston is one of the elite teams in the AAC and in the country. The Cougars have been a money-making machine for their backers, going 18-9 ATS. I just think with Houston coming off an upset loss at home to UCF the books have drastically inflated the number here knowing the public will be itching to back the Cougars off a loss. 

Keep in mind that when these two teams played at SMU back in January the Mustangs were actually a 1-point favorite, which means the Cougars would have been around a 5-6 point home favorite at that time. The line here is more than double that. 

SMU has been great when playing with revenge, especially if the most recent was a lopsided loss. Mustangs are 26-9 ATS last 35 road games revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take SMU! 

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Wyoming -

The Cowboys should have no problem going on the road and getting a win over the Spartans. Wyoming. Both teams are terrible, as they have a combined 10 wins. The key here is that there's zero home court edge for San Jose State.

You also have to look at the previous meeting between these two teams. Wyoming completely dominated the Spartans in a 59-46 win. They shot 56% from the field on San Jose State, while holding the Spartans to just 33%. San JoSe State was just demolished on the road last time out and that's a good thing. Spartans are just 8-20 ATS last 28 at home off a road loss by 20 or more. They are also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 revenging a loss. Take Wyoming! 

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern pk

This line really says it all. Northwestern is a pick'em at home, despite the fact that they come into this game having lost 10 straight overall and are just 1-8-1 ATS during this stretch. The key here is the Wildcats haven't been nearly as bad as their record would indicate during this run. THey have really been competitive in all but a couple games during this run. 

They will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Ohio State and I'm confident they get it. Wildcats have covered 5 of 7 at home against the Buckeyes and Ohio State is a mere 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Northwestern! 

4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +

The Cyclones are getting way too much respect as a near double-digit dog at West Virginia. Iowa State is not playing well enough to be laying this many points. The Cyclones were just annihilated at Texas 86-69. They are now just 2-4 SU in their last 6 and have gone a miserable 2-6 ATS in their last 8. 

West Virginia is not a great team and are playing short-handed, which is definitely playing into this number. However, we did just see the Mountaineers win at home against TCU as a 4.5-point dog. 

Cyclones are also not a team you want to be laying points with on the road even when they are playing well. ISU is a mere 18-34 ATS last 52 road games when listed as a favorite. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road when they come in having lost 2 of 3. Mountaineers on the other hand are 14-3 ATS last 17 at home after 3 or more OVERs and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after back-to-back games that saw a combined score of 155 or more. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB Horizon GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois-Chicago +

Love the value here with the Flames as a dog against Green Bay in Tuesday's quarterfinal action of the Horizon Tournament. Illinois-Chicago will be out for double-revenge here after losing two close games to the Phoenix in the regular-season. The Flames lost by just 5 at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first meeting and then by just 1 at home in the rematch. 

Illinois-Chicago has gone an impressive 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games played in the month of March. Phoenix are just 52-76 ATS last 128 after covering 4 or more of their last 6 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half in 2 straight games. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NCAAB Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State +

Love the value here with the Bengals as a small home dog against the Wildcats. Idaho State comes in having lost 5 straight and are getting zero respect from the books because of it. Weber State is not playing like a team that should be laying points on the road. The Wildcats have lost each of their last 2 and 3 of 4 overall. 

Weber State was a 4.5-point dog at North Colorado in their last game and got annihilated 85-61. Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS last 7 after playing their previous game as a dog. Idaho State is also 4-2 ATS this season when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home with a total of 155 to 159.5. Take Idaho State! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on East Carolina +

I really like the Pirates to cover the big number on the road against the Golden Hurricane. East Carolina is coming off an ugly 34-point loss at home to Houston, which is definitely playing into the favorable number here. No way should Tulsa be laying this many points with how they are playing. Golden Hurricane are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS last 4 and despite a 13-3 SU home record, they are just 7-9 ATS on their home floor. 

Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Pirates. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off a blowout loss by 20 or more to a conference rival are 139-86 (62%) ATS when favoring an opponent that is coming off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Take East Carolina! 

4* NCAAB Late Night NO-BRAINER on Northridge +

The Matadors will have no problem covering the spread against the Warriors in Saturday's late night action. CS-Northridge comes in off back-to-back wins and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Hawaii has lost their last 2 and are just 2-4 ATS last 6. 

Matadors won't be taking this one lightly, as they lost to Hawaii at home back in January. Revenge has been a great motivator for this team. CS-Northridge is 43-25 ATS last 68 road games when revenging a home loss. The Matadors are also a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a home win, while Hawaii is a mere 4-16 ATS last 20 at home in the month of March. Take CS-Northridge! 

4* NCAAB Missouri Valley GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State -

Love the value here with Missouri State at basically a pick'em at home against the Bulldogs. Drake is simply getting too much respect on the road. The Bears might just be 16-14 overall, but are a strong 10-7 in the Missouri Valley. Even more important is the fact that they are 11-3 at home, where they are winning by nearly 12 ppg. 

Drake has just 3 wins in their last 21 trips to Missouri State and have only covered the spread 5 times during this stretch. Bears have covered 4 of their last 6 when revenging a road loss and will add to that mark with an easy cover here. Take Missouri State! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Montana State -

The Bobcats should have zero problem winning by double-digits at home against the Lumberjacks, making this an easy play for me with Montana State laying single digits. This is the ideal spot to jump on the Bobcats, who are undervalued after losing their last 2 on the road.

The thing is both losses came as dogs and they were competitive in both games. Prior to that they had won 4 straight and come in having gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Montana State is the team you want to back off a loss, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 in this spot. The Bobcats are also 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS last 10 at home after playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road. Take Montana State! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio +

Really like the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. No doubt the Zips should be favored here, but they are simply getting too much respect. While Akron has covered 6 straight, they are just 2-4 SU during this stretch. Most of those have come as underdogs and it's a whole different game when you go into a contest expected to blow the opponent out.  

Keep in mind these two teams played in early February and Ohio was a 2-point home favorite, which means this line should be closer to Akron -3.5 to -4. Zips have only covered 2 of their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record and are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Ohio! 

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal +

Great spot here to grab the points and back Cal as a double-digit home dog against the Huskies. No question who the better team is. Washington is 13-1 in Pac-12 play and the Golden Bears haven't won a single conference game. 

That's where the value comes in, as this is a game that the Huskies are going to have an extremely difficult time getting up for. Cal on the other hand is going to play their hearts out against the best team in the conference. It's likely not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset, but I really like their chances of keeping it closer than the number. Huskies are just 9-20 ATS last 29 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Cal! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Washington State +

The Cougars should have no problem covering the big number here on the road against the Cardinal. Washington State is just 4-10 in Pac-12 play and why they are getting so many points, but the Cougars come in playing some of their best basketball of the season. 

Of those 4 conference wins, 3 of them have come in their last 5 games. A stretch in which they have gone a strong 4-1 ATS. Two of those 3 recent Pac-12 wins have come on the road, as they won 91-70 as a 15.5 point dog at Arizona St and 69-55 as a 11.5-point dog at Arizona. Simply put, an outright win here is not out of the question. Take Washington State! 

5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +

I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. 

Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. 

Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU +

Cincinnati continues to get too much respect from the books. The Bearcats have won 11 of their last 12 and are 23-4 on the season. The books have consistently inflated the number on Cincinnati and it's why they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. 

I not only think they are overvalued here on the road against SMU, but I think the Mustangs are primed to win this game outright. These two played at Cincinnati earlier this month and it went right down to the wire with the Bearcats squeaking out a 5-point win as a 11.5-point favorite. Take SMU! 

4* NCAAB ACC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +

This is just too many points for Virginia to be laying in a game that they figure to have a hard time getting motivated for. The Cavaliers are 24-2 and 12-2 in the ACC, there's not a lot more this team has to prove. Their only goal is to take care of business in these last 4 games before the ACC Tournament. 

We saw a very similar matchup for Virginia almost two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame as a 17-point favorite. They ended up winning that game by a mere 6-points (60-54). They also failed to cover a while back as a 17.5-point favorite at home against Miami, winning by just 10. Georgia Tech isn't a great team, but should put up a fight and are a good matchup, as they don't rely on the 3-pointer, which is what Virginia's defense is built to stop. 

Yellow Jackets are 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog of 10 or more, while Virginia is 0-7 ATS last 7 home games when they come in having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Penn State +

Love the value here with the Nittany Lions as a home dog against Maryland. Penn State has been playing their best basketball of the season and the books are simply slow to adjust. The Nittany Lions have won 4 of their last 6 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS during this stretch. 

The simple fact that you have a team that is 4-12 in Big Ten play getting less than 3-points against a ranked opponent that is 12-5 in league play, really tells you everything you need to know. The books are begging for you to take Maryland. 

What people will fail to realize is that this is a really tough spot for the Terps, who are coming off a couple of hard fought wins over Iowa and Ohio State and have a massive revenge game on deck at home against Michigan (lost by 13 at Michigan less than 2 weeks ago). 

In the Nittany Lions last game they won 83-76 at Illinois and that's worth noting, as they are 10-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and 11-3 ATS last 14 off back-to-back wins. Terps have also failed to cover each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record. Take Penn State! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +

I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. 

Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. 

Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas -

No hesitation take the Jayhawks as a short home favorite against red-hot Kansas State. I'm sure some will look to grab the points after watching Kansas get annihilated 91-62 at Texas Tech on Saturday, but that just makes me like them more.

Any time a quality team like the Jayhawks gets embarrassed like they did by the Red Raiders, they almost always respond in a big way. On top of that, Kansas will be out for revenge from a loss earlier this month at K-State. 

Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a road loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 ATS when that road loss is by 20 or more! Take Kansas! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa State -

The Cyclones should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Sooners. Iowa State has really let a couple of favorable matchups slip away in their last two games, as they have lost 73-69 at home to Baylor and 75-72 at TCU. I don't see the Cyclones making the same mistake here. In fact, I think we get one of the best efforts of the entire season from ISU tonight. 

Cyclones are averaging 80.1 ppg and only giving up 63.4 ppg at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 4.3 ppg in Big 12 play, while Oklahoma is getting outscored by 3.9 ppg. ISU has covered 6 of their last 8 following a SU loss. Cyclones are also 12-3-1 ATS last 16 times they have hosted Oklahoma and the home team is 4-0 ATS last 4. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +

The public perception here is that the Spartans don't have a chance of going into Ann Arbor and beating the Wolverines. A big reason for that is the fact that Michigan is 16-0 at home, but more so the fact that Michigan State is down two of their best players in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward. 

I think it's going to have the Spartans coming out with a huge chip on their shoulder and has also created some value with the line, as my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Spartans are 12-4 ATS last 16 conference games, 10-2 ATS last 12 off a home win and 13-3 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record. Take Michigan State! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware +

Delaware should have no problem covering this small number at Drexel, as my numbers strongly suggest that the Blue Hens should be the ones favored. I just think we are getting a great number due to the fact that Delaware has gone just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Blue Hens are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8. 

Adding even more value here is a great system in play favoring a cover by the Blue Hens. Road teams who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when playing a marginal losing team. Take Delaware! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Notre Dame +

Virginia Tech continues to get way too much respect. While the Hokies come in ranked No. 20 in the country, this is not a Top 25 team right now. Virginia Tech just isn't the same team without Justin Robinson in the lineup. They were 17-3 with him on the floor and are just 3-3 without him. The even more telling stat is the Hokies 0-4-1 ATS record without Robinson. 

Notre Dame isn't a great team by any means, but are certainly a much tougher out on their home floor and have covered 3 of their last 5. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a game where they scored 60 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS last 6 when coming into a game having failed to cover 2 straight. Take Notre Dame! 

5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. 

Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. 

Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Providence +

Most are going to jump at backing No. 11 Marquette as slim road favorite against unranked Providence, but I'm not falling for the trap. The books are begging you to take the Golden Eagles, knowing full well that this is going to be a very tough spot for Marquette. 

The biggest thing is what's on deck, as the Eagles will travel to Villanova on Wednesday. Having already beat the Wildcats, Marquette will be in a position to put a stranglehold on the top spot of the Big East with another victory over Villanova. 

That game and the fact that the Golden Eagles defeat Providence by 11 on their home floor earlier this season, will make it hard for Marquette to show up here with a killer instinct. On the flip side of this, this game is one that the Friars will be 100% ready to go for. Not only do they want revenge from the earlier loss, but they haven't forgot about last year's home loss to Marquette, where Markus Howard torched them for 52 points. 

Friars are 14-4 ATS last 18 times revenging a loss where they allowed 75+ and a perfect 7-0 ATS at home the last 3 seasons vs top tier teams that are shooting 45% or better and allowing 42% or worse. Take Providence! 

5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. 

These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. 

Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! 

3* NCAAB Rivalry (UNC/Duke) NO-BRAINER  on Duke -

I'm laying the big number here with the Blue Devils at home. I got nothing but respect for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels, but I just think Duke is head and shoulders the best team in the ACC. Usually the Blue Devils would be the public play, but with how much people like UNC and how well they have been playing, the public will be heavy on the Tar Heels. 

I just don't think North Carolina has the fire-power to keep this game within single-digits. Duke knows they are a great team and because of that they are going to have some closer than expected games against bad teams. Simply because they don't give their opponent the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here. This is every bit a statement game for the Blue Devils as it is the Tar Heels. 

Last time out Duke beat NC State 94-78, but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite. That's fine by me, as the Blue Devils are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a home win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off a home win where they won but failed to cover. Take Duke! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northwestern +

Ohio State has no business laying this many points against Northwestern. The Wildcats are simply way undervalued right now because they have lost 6 straight. Most people just focus on the wins and losses and simply ignore that they have had some really tough losses during this stretch, including an excruciating 80-79 loss at Iowa and a 3-point defeat the next time out against Rutgers. 

I'm not saying the losing streak will come to an end against the Buckeyes, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Northwestern win here. Ohio State is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games. All 4 of those wins coming against bad team and 2 of those were by 4-points or less. Last time they were at home they lost 63-56 as a 8-point favorite against Illinois and the time before that they barely beat Penn State by 4 as a 7-point favorite. 

Buckeyes are just a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games overall, while the Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their previous 10 games. Take Northwestern! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +

I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Nebraska as a small road dog against Penn State.  Most are going to want nothing to do with the Cornhuskers given their 2019 slide, but they finally are playing with some confidence. Nebraska followed up a much-needed win at home over Minnesota with a 9-point victory over Northwestern. 

As good as this spot may look For Penn State, were talking about a team that has won a mere 2 Big Ten games all season and lost outright the two previous times they were laying points at home. First it was a 7-point loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite, then it was a 4-point setback as a 6.5-point favorite against Rutgers. 

Cornhuskers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference win, 7-1 ATS last 8 off a home win and 9-1 ATS last 10 after a game where they held an opponent to 55 points or less. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +

I don't think the Horned Frogs should be a favorite on the road against the Cowboys. I get that Oklahoma State is down and come in having lost 5 straight, but for the most part this team has been competitive. 

More than anything, TCU isn't a team I would be wanting to lay points with on the road, especially with the Horned Frogs unlikely to have one of their best players in Kouat Noi. Noi is basically tied with Demond Bane as the teams top scorer. Bane averages 14.9 ppg and Noi is at 14.8 ppg. What they really miss with Noi is his 3-point shooting. His 49 made 3-pointers are 10 more than the next best on the team and he's missed 5 games. 

The offense looked lost without him in Saturday's 9-point home loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point favorite. Noi is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Ankles typically take at least a week to recover from and if he's not good enough to go Saturday hard to imagine he will be on the floor Monday. 

TCU is also just 1-10 ATS last 11 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Oklahoma State! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton -

The Bluejays should have no problem covering this small number at home against Seton Hall. This is one of those quick rematches in conference play, as these two just played at Seton Hall on Feb. 9th. The Pirates squeaked out a 63-58 win at home, which really wasn't a surprise given the home/away splits of these two teams. 

This time I expect the roles to be reversed and I think there's a decent chance Creighton turns this into a blowout. Note that the Bluejays only lost by 5 at Seton Hall, despite shooting just 30.3% from the field. Pirates are allowing teams to shoot 46% against them on the road and Creighton is averaging 83.7 ppg on 51.6% shooting at home this season. 

Bluejays are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-2 ATS last 13 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a road loss. Take Creighton! 

4* Tennessee/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -

I get that the Volunteers are ranked No. 1 in the country, but no way am I passing up on the Wildcats as a small home favorite in this one. There's no debating that Tennessee is one of the top teams not just in the SEC but the entire country. However, I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. 

The Vols are a perfect 10-0 in SEC play, but have not faced either of the two top tier teams in LSU and Kentucky. Their road games inside the conference so far have been against Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-43 in league play. 

At the same time, I think this Kentucky team is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Sure they weren't as good as expected out of the gate, but they have been playing as well as anyone over the last 2 months. 

You also can't ignore the fact that the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when matched up against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Take Kentucky! 

4* Fresno St/N Mexico MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +

I think the books have made a big mistake making the Lobos a home dog. Fresno State might have the better overall record and a stronger mark in conference play, but New Mexico is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play well.

That's evident by the fact that that the Lobos are a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against conference opponents, which has seen them win by an average of 13.4 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that New Mexico is 8-3 ATS last 11 as a home underdog, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark this season. 

It's also worth noting that the Lobos are off a 92-60 win against San Jose State, as they are 8-2 ATS last 10 off a win by 30 or more over a conference rival. Take New Mexico! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary -

I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. 

Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas -

The Longhorns should have no problem covering this double-digit spread at home against the Cowboys. I'm expecting a very motivated and focused Texas team on Saturday. Not only are the Longhorns going to be ready to go after getting upset on their home floor by Kansas State, but they will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Oklahoma State. 

I think if Texas comes into this one with the right mentality, they are going to turn this into a blowout rather quickly. The Cowboys have been on a free-fall. Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their last 3 games they have lost by 18 to Kansas State, 2 to TCU, 12 to Kansas and 28 to Texas Tech. 

Prior to the loss to K-State, Texas has really been playing well with 3 double-digit wins in their previous 4 games. The only exception a close road loss at Iowa State where they easily covered as 8-point dogs. 

Longhorns are 13-5 ATS under Smart off a home loss and 20-10 ATS under Smart revenging a road loss. Take Texas! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +

This is a great spot to grab the points and fade Louisville at home. This is one of the more difficult spots you will find a team. The Cardinals come into game off one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the entire season. Louisville had a 23-point over Duke midway through the 2nd half and somehow managed to suffer a 71-69 loss. 

That's now 3 losses in the last 4 games for the Cardinals, whose confidence has to be shattered after what happened against the Blue Devils. I not only think they will have a hard time covering the spread here against Clemson, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright. 

Clemson got off to a slow start in ACC play, going just 1-5 in their first 6 conference games. They have bounced back in a big way, going 4-1 over their last 5 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. Tigers are now 12-4 ATS last 16 after 15+ games vs a quality opponent that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off a road loss as a favorite are just 29-62 (32%) ATS since 1997. Take Clemson!