ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - You may be shocked by the following but the Nuggets have dominated the Warriors in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last ten meetings. Denver is our pick to win the Championship this season with a much improved roster over last years, with the additions of Bruce Brown, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors looked good in their opener against the Lakers who were without LeBron, but now they step up in class against this Championship contender. Denver will again center everything they do around Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray. SGA may have won the MVP a year ago but the best player in the league was Jokic. The Joker played in just two games against the Warriors a year ago and scored 71 total points, grabbed 22 rebounds and dished out 15 assists. Golden State brought in Al Horford at center but his days of being able to contain Jokic are long gone. Denver was one of just 12 teams in the league to have a positive point differential on the road at +2.1ppg. Golden State is not as dominant at home like they used to be as they were 24-17 SU at home a year ago with an average MOV of +2.2ppg. The much better team is getting points here and we will gladly jump in with a play on Denver.

ASA NHL play on: Dallas Stars (-140) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET - Tonight's matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I'm backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series. Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice. Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issue. In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA's forecheck. On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA's league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas' top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash. Even-strength play tilts Dallas' way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA's structured but aging blue line. Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

UEFA Europa League: #224537/224538 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 (-120) Nice at Celta Vigo, Thursday at 3:00 pm et – We are projecting a 2-2 match here.  Both clubs are in a good spot to expect plenty of scoring.  3 straight Nice matches (and 7 of the last 9) have reached a total of at least 3 goals!  Nice has scored 14 goals in 9 matches but allowed 16 goals in the last 8 matches.  Scoring multiple times and/or conceding multiple times has been a regular occurrence for Nice for an extended period of time.  Celta Vigo has both scored and conceded for 10 straight matches.  Admittedly, the La Liga side has a number of 1-1 draws but here they are hosting a Ligue 1 side that has had only 2 draws in the last 10 matches.  If this does draw we see it being 2-2 but the point is getting to at least 2-1 here should not be an issue.  Celta Vigo has scored 5 goals in the last 3 matches as a host.  Nice has scored an average of 2 goals in the last 3 matches overall and these 3 matches averaged 4 goals!  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the Over in this one.

#109 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers haven’t covered a game since September 15th (2-4-1 ATS). Their only outright win since September 21st was by 2 points vs Miami who is one of the worst teams in the NFL. They only have 1 win this season by more than 3 points and that was vs the Raiders. They can’t be trusted to lay more than a FG right now. Offensively they will most likely be missing both starting offensive tackles and they are down to their 4th string RB. They’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that ranks in the top 10 overall and has been very good vs the pass (7th in the NFL). If they can limit Justin Herbert they should be in a good spot as LA doesn’t run the ball with less than 30% of their total yardage coming on the ground (down to 4th string RB as we stated). Minnesota lost 28-22 to Philly last week and they should have success offensively here vs a struggling LAC defense. LA has allowed 28 PPG over their last 4 and they rank 31st in defensive success rate during that stretch. We like the better defense getting points here vs a Charger offense that has scored only 10 TD’s in their 24 red zone trips (31st in the league). We’ll call this one to the wire and take the Vikings.