08-25-18 |
Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Lions v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 30-17 upset loss at home to the Giants last Friday. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 30-14 upset victory in Tennessee last Saturday where they were 3-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 3 straight games Under the Total are a double-digit upset loss at home as a home favorite. Detroit has lost and failed to cover the point spread in both their first two preseason games but rookie head coach Matt Patricia is embracing this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” contest. The Lions have played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after enduring at least two straight point spread losses in the preseason. Patricia is committed to having the Lions run the football to control time of possession and keep the defense off the field — so expect to see this strategy enacted in this contest. As it is, Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last preseason game. The Lions have also played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay has played their last 3 preseason games Under the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their previous preseason game under the guidance of head coach Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers have seen their first two preseason games finish Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after playing two straight preseason games Over the Total. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total under Koetter — and this franchise has played 29 of their last 41 home games in the preseason Under the Total when favored by no more than 7 points. And in their last 18 preseason games against an NFC opponent, the Bucs have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total has been bet up to the mid-40s for this game with Tampa Bay scoring 28.0 PPG this preseason — but that is likely an overreaction. These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in this preseason which should be the case with the first-stringers playing through the first-half but not wanting to reveal too much on offense against a potential opponent in the NFC Playoffs. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Patriots v. Panthers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
14-25 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). THE SITUATION: New England (2-0) remained undefeated this preseason when they crushed the Eagles last Thursday by a 37-20 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Carolina (2-0) is also unscathed so far in the preseason after they defeated Miami by a 27-20 score as a 3-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers’ have averaged 27.5 PPG in their first two preseason games but their offense will likely struggle in this dress rehearsal game. The Carolina offensive line is without two of their starters with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams out with injuries. Not only will the Panthers miss these two players blocking for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey but their absence will likely compel the Panthers to be even more conservative on offense so as to not risk an injury to Newton under center. As it is, Carolina has played 9 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Ron Rivera when playing with six days or less of rest. Carolina has also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under Rivera’s leadership with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Panthers have played their first two preseason games Over the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their two previous preseason games Over the Total. New England has also played their two preseason games Over the Total with their offense averaging 31.5 PPG. But the Patriots are only generating 317.8 total YPG this preseason so their scoring numbers should decrease. In their win over the Eagles last week, one of their touchdowns was scored from a 54-yard fumble recovery. New England has a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Patriots defense did allow 316 passing yards to Philly in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last preseason contest. New England has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Now after playing their last two preseason games at home, the Patriots go on the road for the first time this month which should slow down their offense a bit. New England has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games at home. The Patriots have also played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Lastly, New England’s teams under Bill Belichick have played 13 of their last 21 road games in the preseason Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Tom Brady and Newton should play the first half, both teams have below average backups in Brian Hoyer and Garrett Gilbert. The high scoring games that both these two teams have played have attracted many bettors to take the Over which has pushed this Total up to the 45 point range. That is likely an overreaction which makes this strong Under situation even better. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-18 |
Ravens v. Colts UNDER 43 |
Top |
20-19 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) remained undefeated in this preseason with a 33-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (1-0) also earned a victory last Thursday as they upset Seattle by a 19-17 score as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens were quite good on defense last week as they held the Rams to just 170 yards of offense. With eleven starters returning from last years’ team that was 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 18.9 PPG, the Ravens defense has a good chance to be one of the best units in the NFL this season — and they boast plenty of depth after enduring a few injury-riddled seasons. Depth is a critical factor in handicapping preseason NFL action — and the Ravens have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed only 7 points in their two preseason games so far this month — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jim Harbaugh after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their previous two preseason games. On offense, rookie Lamar Jackson had a better game against the Rams than his opening contest against the Bears but he does not appear ready to challenge Joe Flacco to be the starter anytime soon. He should see plenty of action tonight with Robert Griffin III looking solid as a veteran backup on this team. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. And in their last 6 preseason games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Ravens have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Colts defense also flexed their muscles last week by holding the Seahawks to just 195 yards of offense. What Indy lacks in defensive talent they make up for in plenty of roster competition to earn spots everywhere — so this unit will play very hard tonight. QB Andrew Luck looked good last week by completing 6 of 9 passes for 64 yards — but I do not expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the envelope too much with him by playing for an extended period of time. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Colts have also played 16 of their last 22 home preseason games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Additionally, Indy has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been up significantly with the number opening at 37 but it is now listed in many places as high as 43. I love it. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-18 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-18 |
Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.
FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Giants v. Lions UNDER 40 |
Top |
30-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back after suffering a 20-10 upset loss last Thursday at home against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in their first preseason game. Detroit (0-1) also looks to get a victory after they lost last Friday in Oakland by a 16-10 score as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices this week — so this game will serve as the culmination of that work. The most aggressive play-calling often occurs in those simulated practice sessions — these exhibition games often end up particularly vanilla as the culmination of these scrimmages. The Giants plan on using this game to given an extended look to second-year backup quarterback Davis Webb who is competing with rookie Kyle Lavletta for the backup job to Eli Manning. Webb struggled last week against the Browns as he completed only 9 of 22 passes for only 70 yards. Lavletta was OK but not particularly impressive in his professional debut as he completed 6 of his 9 passes but that only produced 48 yards. New York has played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Under the Total after a double-digit loss in the preseason. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Additionally, New York has played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit managed to generate only 253 yards of offense last week against the Raiders. But I do not expect rookie head coach Matt Patricia to have any plans on opening up the offense this week. General manager Bob Quinn considered last year’s team too soft on both sides of the football. I expect the Lions to commit to trying to improve their running game while perhaps giving a bunch of carries to Ameer Abdullah who is on the trading block after they signed LeGarrette Blount in the offseason before drafting Auburn’s Kerryone Johnson in the second round of the NFL draft. This second exhibition game looks to be a showcase for third-year QB Jake Rudock who is fighting for the backup job to Matthew Stafford. Rudock completed 12 of 19 passes for 84 yards last week against the Raiders but failed to generate enough scoring opportunities in moving the offense. Detroit has played 21 of their last 33 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games overall Under the Total with the number set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: Much of the important work for both these rookie head coaches in the Giants’ Pat Shurmer and Patricia of the Lions has already been done this week. Look for this to be a game fought in the trenches which is an area of emphasis for both coaches. Expect a low-scoring game. 25* NFLx NFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-6) looks to bounce-back from the debut of Johnny Manziel in the CFL which resulted in a humiliating 50-11 loss to Hamilton as a 6.5-point underdog. Ottawa (4-3) looks to rebound from a 42-41 upset loss in Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manziel did not look comfortable under center — he threw four interceptions with three of those passes being ones that were definitely his fault. Manziel needs to learn from those bad mistakes that he simply cannot force the action even if he is no longer playing in the NFL. I expect him to play a more disciplined game after that embarrassment that literally made international headlines. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike Sherman commits to running the ball more to take the pressure off Manziel in this contest. Tyrell Sutton ran the ball only nine times last week but gained 61 yards on those carries. As it is, the Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Now Montreal goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Alouettes are scoring only 13.7 PPG on the road — but their defense has played better away from home as they are allowing home teams to scoring 21.3 PPG along with averaging 309.0 total YPG which are both much better numbers than their 34.6 PPG/430.1 YPG season averages. Furthermore, Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Ottawa blew a 24-point lead against the Argonauts after holding a 28-7 lead at halftime. While that was a wild game, the Redblacks scored two of their touchdowns from a punt return and an interception return. Expect head coach Rick Campbell to prioritize his team to back to playing better defense after that disastrous second-half. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an East Division rival. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after they scored at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Redblacks should also commit to running the ball more after managing only 46 and 64 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Over might look attractive to many bettors considered that these two teams surrendered 50 and 42 points last week. But Manziel’s interceptions and a crazy second-half contributed greatly to those high scores. Both head coaches want to do whatever they can to reinstall confidence with their defenses — and that should help this contest result in a lower-scoring game. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-18 |
Leicester v. Manchester United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). THE SITUATION: The 2018-19 English Premier League kicks off their season on Friday with the 2015-16 Champions with Leicester City (0-0-0) traveling to Old Trafford to face Manchester United (0-0-0).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a match greatly impacted by the World Cup last month — a number of key offensive talent will be missing from both sides. Leicester City will be without Jamie Vardy after he played was the backup striker for the England team that made it to the Semifinals. Vardy did not play a bunch for the Three Lions but he just joined the Foxes in training so manager Claude Puel does not think he is in shape to take the pitch. Leicester City has an intriguing young striker in 21-year old Kelechi Iheanacho but he is a step down from Vardy who is one of the best scoring forwards in the English Premier League after playing a vital role in that championship run three seasons ago. Puel will likely have his team rely even more on defense and counter-attacks with the loss of their star midfielder Riyad Mahrez who inked a big transfer to Manchester City this summer. The Foxes were 17th in the EPL last year by allowing 60 goals — but they are likely to change their tactics this year while being aided by a nice signing in center back Jonny Evans who came over from the relegated West Brom. Manchester United will likely be without a host of players who were still playing in the Semifinals of the World Cup: forward Romelu Lukaku, midfielders Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marouane Fellaini and defenseman Ashley Young. Cohesion will likely be an issue for this team after manager Jose Mourinho took a squad to the United States for the International Champions Cup matches without a whopping thirteen players who needed the time off after playing in the World Cup. The Red Devils will hope that backup forward Marcus Rashford or Alexis Sanchez in the midfield will be able to score — but they will be very happy with a 1-0 result. Mourinho’s team emphasizes defensive tactics to the frustration of many of his players and fans. The Red Devils were second in the EPL last year by allowing a mere 28 goals for a low 0.74 Goals-Per-Game allowed mark. Mourinho is also dealing with some injuries to midfielder Nemanja Matic and right back Antonio Valencia who both play critical roles in his defensive tactics. The absence of these two players will likely compel the Red Devils to play even more cautiously in this contest and not risk Leicester City seizing a lead.
FINAL TAKE: This opening match shapes up to feature conservative tactics on both sides given the absences for both teams. Leicester City would be thrilled with a scoreless draw while Mourinho’s teams tend to hold out to the second-half to finally get on the board. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-18 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-78) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 9-6 win in Texas. Tampa Bay (56-56) has lost three straight games with their 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. After a travel day yesterday, these two teams begin their series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, this is the Orioles’ seventh straight game on the road — and not only have they played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after playing at least their previous six games away from home but they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Cobb who is 3-14 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.93 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in thirteen starts. Cobb’s teams have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when they are priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740 over that span — and all those numbers are above their season average. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Rays have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. The Rays are big money-line favorites priced in the -160 range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when priced at -150 or higher. Tampa Bay will be looking to avenge an 11-5 loss back on July 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. They counter with Glasnow who is 1-2 with a 4.27 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. He will be making his first start for the Rays since being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. The right-hander had an ugly 7.76 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at home last season — and has not been as effective at home almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season where he has a 1.43 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 38 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and a .213 opponent’s batting average in 20 2/3 innings on the road. Glasgow’s teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .303 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 over that span. The Over is also 13-3-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-30-3 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The number for this game is in the relatively low 7.5 to 8 range — perhaps because of the respective offenses in this game along with some optimism regarding Glasnow’s prospects as a starting pitcher. But both these teams are hitting the ball well as of late — and Glasnow has yet to see significant improvement in his command which is why he was relegated to the bullpen this season by the Pirates before being traded to Tampa Bay. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-51) has won three of their last four games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total as an underdog. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in seven starts (and fourteen appearances). The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.79 and 4.75 respectively moving forward. Gant is making his first start since July 21st (while pitching an inning of relief on Wednesday) — and the Cards have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Gant pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Cubs team that has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Gant will likely not get much support from his bullpen in this game either as the St. Louis bullpen has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over the last seven days. Chicago (60-44) has lost four of their last six games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 8 third games of a series Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NL Central foes. They counter with Hendricks who is 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.70 mark along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hendricks facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these starting pitchers will likely give up their share of runs tonight. Look for a higher-scoring game on national television tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-18 |
Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 56 |
Top |
21-15 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-2) comes off a 29-25 win over British Columbia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. Hamilton (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 upset loss at home to Saskatchewan where they were -10.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Ottawa rushed for only 67 yards in the game after managing only 35 rushing yards the previous week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. Now the Redblacks go back on the road where they are scoring only 21.0 PPG — but they are also allowing only 21.0 PPG while holding their opponents to just 332.0 total YPG. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against East Division foes — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of July. Hamilton saw 51 combined points scored in their last game — but that game also saw two punt returns for touchdowns which added significantly to that tally. The Tiger-Cats defense has stalled as of late with QB Jeremiah Masoli has thrown only one TD pass in his last three games. Head coach June Jones’ offense may not be making enough halftime adjustments as they have scored only 9 combined points in the second halves of their last two games. They were held scoreless in the last 21:42 minutes of their loss to the Roughriders last Thursday. Hamilton has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Tiger-Cats have also played 38 of their last 53 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 51 of their last 77 home games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 range. Lastly, Hamilton has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is rather high with it currently in the mid-50s. There is strong value for taking the Under with both these teams experiencing issues on offense. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-18 |
Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-44) won the opening game of this series last night over Cincinnati (45-58) by a 9-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have won three straight games as well as five of their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Phillies have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts (21 games). The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. Pivetta has also taken a nose dive since his ERA peaked at a 3.23 mark back on May 21st. In his 48 2/3 innings since, Pivetta has 6.29 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP. And in his last four starts, Pivetta has been even worse with an 8.82 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that has seen the Over go 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 games after a loss — and the Over is also 18-6-3 in the Reds’ last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 14-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 19 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in nine starts. He has surrendered 14 home runs this season after giving up two bombs in his last start against the Pirates. The right-hander has been worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.57 mark along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has scored 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been a disaster for the last two months while struggling on the road even during his encouraging start to the season.— and the Reds have been an Over machine as of late. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-48) won the second-game of their double-header with the Cubs yesterday with a 6-3 score that avenged a 7-2 loss to Chicago (57-40) in the afternoon. These NL Central rivals have split the first four games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have played 5 straight road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 26 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.78 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.56 mark along with a 1.10 WHIP in ten starts. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total wit Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .387 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. Chicago has also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Chicago has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of the last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Quintana who is 8-6 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an ERA of 4.63 and 4.38 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seven starts. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers relative to their sabermetrics. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Chicago (57-39) won the opening game of their double-header with St. Louis (49-48) by a 7-2 score this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.48 and 4.51 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark along with a 1.30 WHIP. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776 over that span. Chicago has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Montgomery who is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled since entering the Cubs’ rotation as he has failed to register a Quality Start in four straight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an Era of 4.55 and 4.52 moving forward. He has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP along with a .308 opponent’s batting average. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Montgomery on the mound. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-18 |
Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Chicago (54-38) has won five of their last seven games with their 11-6 victory over the Padres.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has an outstanding 1.98 ERA in nine starts at home — but he sees that mark rise by nearly a run to a 2.96 mark on the road. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression with the veteran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.67 and 4.68 marks moving forward. Lester’s velocity has dropped below 91 MPH which is his lowest mark in over ten years. His Hard-Hit Rate is 33.1% which is not only a career high but also higher than the MLB average which is in the 31% range. The Cubs have played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-58) has also lost five of their last six games — and they have then played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Padres have also played 28 of their last 46 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are also calling for regression for the rookie with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.71 and 4.53 respectively. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Lauer on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with Lauer facing a team from the NL Central. He faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is simply very overvalued right now. We want to try to take advantage of that when he is pitching away from Wrigley Field. While we can’t be zombies to take the Over (or against the Cubs) whenever Lester is on the mound right now, there is enough complementary evidence on the Padres’ ledger to take make a strong investment in the Over. 25* MLB Pre-All-Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
5-4 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-42) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 victory over the Yankees on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. Additionally, Cleveland has now played five straight Overs — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Furthermore, the Indians have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-9.5 range — and the Over is 17-4-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for Clevinger with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.03 and 3.94 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Indians’ last 4 home games with Clevinger on the hill. These are not good signs when faces the Bronx Bombers who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .293 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .843 over that span. New York (61-32) has seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. His sabermetrics are also calling for regression with both his SIERA and FIP projecting ERAs of 4.38 and 4.51 moving forward. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.42 mark along with a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team from the AL Central. He faces an Indians team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .766. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two teams swinging hot bats, expect a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
England v. Belgium OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-167 |
13 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-1) comes off a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Croatia on Wednesday. Belgium (5-0-1) also has to settle for the third-place consolation match after they lost to France on Tuesday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These consolation this place matches tend to be higher scoring affairs. Each of the last ten third-place matches have seen at least three combined goals scored with six of these contests producing four or more combined goals. There are a few reasons for the uptick in scoring. First, the fear of losing liberates many managers from employing overly cautious defensive tactics. Teams are less likely to park the proverbial bus in the back — and midfielders are more likely to engage in attacking positions. It is difficult to motivate teams to get up for this match after they just lost in the Semifinals. Engaging in a more aggressive style of play helps to motivate players again. Second, managers often rotate players. There is no sense in pushing players dealing with knocks if the stakes are lower. It also makes sense to use this contest to provide playing time for bench players who have not played as much in this tournament. But this influx of new players can detract from chemistry and cohesion on defense. Third, with the pressure of this single elimination tournament now gone, players tend to play looser without the tentativeness that anxiety often instills. Pressure tends to create lower scoring matches since the onus is on the offense to execute plays to create scoring opportunities. Fourth, some players will still be motivated to score goals if they remain in contention to win the Golden Boot Award for most goals in the World Cup. England’s Harry Kane leads all players with six goals — and he would love to add another one or two goals to that tally to likely clinch his name being placed on that trophy. Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku is also in the mix for that award with four goals so he will also be looking to add to his total. The Red Devils have scored 14 goals in their six matches while the Three Lions have scored 12 times — so these are two teams that are typically scoring at least two goals per match.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams did play in their last Group Stage match back on June 28th which Belgium won by a 1-0 score. Both managers rested key players in that match since both sides had clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. It is unlikely either manager will want to see such a conservative approach in this rematch with nothing at stake except pride and building excitement for their national teams moving forward. 25* World Cup A-List O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-13-18 |
Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Washington (47-46) won the opening game of this series with their 5-4 win over the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Under go a decisive 50-24-5 in their last 79 games after a victory. Additionally, Washington has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Under is also 47-19-6 in Washington’s last 72 road games which includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective away from home as he sees his ERA drop to a 3.63 mark with a 1.23 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in nine road starts as compared to his ugly 5.98 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Roark also usually pitches well against New York given his 3.19 ERA in nineteen career games with thirteen starts. He should fare well against this Mets team that is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .167 batting average along with a .232 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .534. New York (37-54) has played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They get Syndergaard back after he spent the last seven weeks on the disabled list after posting a 4-1 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home in Citi Field throughout his career where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP as opposed to his 3.22 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP on the road. The Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Thor on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive in his return against this Nationals team that has played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened at 7.5 for this game but has jumped a full run in most spots. What looked like a solid Under play before that movement now becomes an outstanding opportunity with combined scores of 8 now cashing tickets. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-18 |
Reds v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
4-19 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (41-51) has won the opening two games of this series with their 7-4 victory over the Indians.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 9-2-1 in the Reds’ last 12 games after a win — and the Over is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 16-4-3 in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Mahle who is 7-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.53 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.24 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in eight home starts. That is not a good sign when facing this Indians team that scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home while posting a .277 batting average with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 in those games. Cleveland (49-41) has seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Indians have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The first two games of this series have gone Over the Total — and Cleveland has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 26-7-2 in the Indians’ last 35 games at home which includes the Over going 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. They counter with Carrasco who is 9-5 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.48 mark along with a 1.38 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Indians’ last 8 home games with Carrasco facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .263 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .742 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Carrasco has consistently seen his home/road splits favor his starts away from home. With Cincinnati hitting the ball well and the Indians a strong offensive club at home, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Interleague Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-18 |
England v. Croatia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
23 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Sweden on Saturday. Croatia (5-0-0) matched that accomplishment by surviving facing the most nation Russia by winning a shootout by a 4-3 score after that match was deadlocked at 2-2 after 120 minutes of play.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Croatia is dealing with injury issues. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic injured his calf during that match with the Russians. While he finished the match, he was clearly hampered by that injury. He will start this match but his effectiveness remains in doubt. The Vatreni are also dealing with an injury to their best defensive player in Atletico Madrid’s Sime Vrsalijko who suffered a knock on Saturday. Not only will Croatia miss his play on the pitch but the changes that his absence forces manager Zlatko Dalic to make impacts the cohesion of that back line. These injuries will negatively impact the defensive makeup for this team. The Vatrenia have allowed only one goal via a set piece in this tournament — but they have allowed 22 shots via set pieces which is tied for the most in this tournament. This has been a counterattacking side for much of this World Cup where they have increased their offensive pressure if and when they got into jeopardy — as they did against Russia when the Bears forced extra time by tying that score at 1-1. Surrendering that second goal to Russia in the 115th minute mark does not speak well to the stinginess of their defense in crunch time either since the Bears are not offensive juggernauts. Croatia has scored ten times in their five matches — and seven of those goals were after the first-half when the sense of urgency was amped. England has scored eleven goals in their five matches. Eight of these goals has come from set pieces (including three penalty kicks). The Three Lions are averaging 5.71 shots via set pieces per 90 minutes in this tournament with 1.73 of these shots being on target. They should generate good looks from set pieces against this Croatia side. England has allowed only four goals — but they have benefited from a favorable opening pair of matches against Panama and Tunisia that lacks offensive firepower but who still scored on them twice. In fact, their Quarterfinals match with Sweden was their first clean sheet of this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: This match may start slow with both sides being patient — but before the 90 minute regulation period is over, I expect both sides to have scored with a very good likelihood that at least one of these teams has scored twice. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-18 |
Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Seattle (57-34) enters this series coming off a 6-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Los Angeles (46-45) enters this series after they defeated the Dodgers by a 4-3 score for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.71 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in eight starts. Leake’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. He should fare well against this Angels team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .251 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .574 OPS over that span. The Angels have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after an off day — and the Under is 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Angels have not allowed more than four runs in each of their last six games — and they have then played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least six straight contests. Additionally, not only has LA played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total but they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Richards who is 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.31 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Angels have seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games with Richards on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should also pitch well against this Mariners team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .240 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .689 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two slumping offenses, expect a low-scoring game with these two underrated starting pitchers on the hill. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-18 |
Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Washington (45-44) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 10-2 loss to Miami. Pittsburgh (41-48) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 4-1 win over the Phillies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number posted in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Nova who is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in six starts. The Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Nova on the hill — and they have also seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (45-44) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on the road after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Rodriguez who is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work this season after being called up from Triple-A. Manager Davey Martinez has described Rodriguez as having “electric stuff.” He benefits from facing a slumping Pirates lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .688 during that span. Martinez will also be able to call on his strong bullpen that has a 3.75 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP when pitching on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is listed in the 9/9.5 range mostly because of the uncertainty of Rodriguez — but I expect him to pitch pretty well before the Nationals turn to their bullpen. Nova should pitch well on national television as well. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-36) has won seven of their last eight games with their 8-7 win over the Reds yesterday where they rallied from a 7-4 deficit in the bottom of the 8th inning to score four runs and pull out that comeback victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. And the Cubs have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander are screaming “Regression” as both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to more than double to a 4.57 and 4.53 marks. Additionally, Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with Lester — and they have also seen the Over go 8-1-2 in the last 11 games with Lester facing the Reds. He faces a red-hot Cincinnati lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .781. The Over is also 12-3-2 in the Reds’ last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (39-50) has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in the Reds’ last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a blown save. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 5-1-1. They counter with Castillo who is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.70 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP in his ten starts on the road. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Castillo. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .350 batting average along with a .432 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .983 over that span. Additionally, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is extremely overvalued right now — and Castillo has been a nightmare when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. Both these pitchers are facing lineups that are in the zone right now. Lastly, in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 10 times. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-18 |
England v. Sweden UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of the World Cup by defeating Colombia on Tuesday by a 4-3 score in the shootout after that match was deadlocked at 1-1 after 120 minutes of play. Sweden (3-0-1) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 1-0 win over Switzerland.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden is built to grind out low-scoring matches under manager Janne Andersson — just like they did against the Swiss. The Blue and Yellow have allowed only two goals in their four matches in this tournament. They also lead all teams with 140 defensive clearances in this World Cup. But Sweden has also scored only six times in their four matches. That continues a disturbing trend in their preparations for this tournament where they only scored once in their last four friendlies. Furthermore, in their final playoff match in the qualification stage for the World Cup, the Blue and Yellow advanced by holding Italy scoreless in those 180 minutes of competition. Even in the 2016 Euro with their talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the pitch before retiring from international play, Sweden scored only one goal in their three Group Stage matches. England has allowed only four goals in their four matches. And while the Three Lions have scored nine goals in this tournament, eight of these goals were in their first two matches against two of the weakest teams in the World Cup in Panama and Tunisia.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden’s plan to win this match is to focus almost entirely on defense while taking their chances with counterattacks. They will be very happy with a scoreless match after the 90 minutes of regulation time. I am not sure they will be successful — they Blue and Yellows should dictate the pace and tempo of this match. 25* World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
10-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-29) has won eight of their last ten games with their 3-0 win in Washington on Wednesday. Kansas City (25-61) has lost six in a row with their 3-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after an off-day — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall. They give the ball to Sale who is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has been more effect on the road where he owns a 2.32 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .163 in eleven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Sale facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this slumping Royals team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 during that span. Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an off-day. Additionally, Kansas City has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and the Under is 24-11-2 in their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The Royals have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hammel who is 2-10 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in seven starts this season. The sabermetrics do indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 5.03 — and his ERA also drops a full run to a 4.53 mark in his seven starts at home. The Under is 6-0-1 in KC’s last 7 home games with Hammel on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While Hammel does not appear very encouraging for the Under, the sabermetrics are encouraging. Sale should dominate the Royals (which is why the Red Sox are remarkable road favorites priced at almost -400). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-18 |
England v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Colombia (9883) and England (9884). THE SITUATION: England (2-0-1) reached the Knockout Stage after winning their first two matches in Group Stage play. With only first place at stake which did not guarantee a better Knockout Stage draw, the Three Lions played a listless match with a similarly unmotivated Belgium side that resulted in a 1-0 victory for The Red Devils. Colombia (2-0-1) needed a win while getting — and that all came together for Los Cafeteros as they defeated Senegal by a 1-0 score. But Colombia’s best player, James Rodriguez, injured his right leg in the match and has remained in doubt for this match even as we approach kickoff.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manager Jose Pekerman will wait until an hour before match time to reveal his plans for Rodriguez. Personally, I am expecting Rodriguez to take the pitch. Tests on Saturday revealed swelling but no muscle tear — so he has had over two days to reduce the swelling from that injury. While Rodriguez may not start the match, I will not be surprised to see him playing in the second half. That said, to take the Over, I have to assume that Colombia will score at least one goal in this match — even if they are without the services of Rodriguez for the entire contest. I do think Los Cafeteros will score. This Colombia roster is loaded with talent in this golden generation of their national team even without Rodriguez. Their captain, Radamel Falcao, was injured and missed the 2014 World Cup where they made it to the Quarterfinals. Colombia also has a rising star in Juan Fernando Quintero and the player dubbed “James Junior” for his history of stepping up in Rodriguez’s absence. Quintero has been involved in three of Los Cafeteros’ five goals in this World Cup. Colombia has scored five times in their three matches with one of them occurring despite playing with just ten men in their opening match against Japan. In their last major international tournament in the 2016 Copa America, Los Cafeteros scored 11 times while surrendering 6 goals in six matches that resulted in a Third Place finish. England has scored eight times in this tournament — and their six goals via set pieces were the most of any team in the Group Stage. The offensive numbers for this Three Lions team would be even better if anything would have been on the line in their third match against Belgium where both teams went through the motions. Led by Harry Kane and his five goals, this England team is blessed with plenty of offensive firepower. But I do have concerns over their back line that feature three fullbacks not playing their natural position from their professional teams in the English Premier League. This group has yet to be tested with matches against lowly Panama and Tunisia before their glorified scrimmage with Belgium. England has scored in seventeen of their last eighteen Knockout Stage matches in the World Cup.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that are happy to push the pace and push the ball vertically up the field. I think the worst case scenario is a match that sees at least two combined goals — and the probability that one of these teams scores at least twice in the regulation time being very high since neither of these sides will even consider parking the bus in back. 25* World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Colombia (9883) and England (9884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-18 |
Denmark v. Croatia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9767) and Croatia (9768). THE SITUATION: Denmark (1-2-0) received the point they needed to secure advancing to the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw with France last Tuesday. Croatia (3-0-0) completed a perfect Group Stage mark on Tuesday with their 2-1 win over Iceland.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams allowed only one goal in their group stage matches with both of those coming off penalty kicks. Given those strong defensive numbers, taking the under might look very tempting to many bettors. However, don’t be surprised if this ends up being a higher-scoring affair. Denmark only scored two goals in their three matches. But after their 1-0 win over Peru in their first match, they were happy to live with the two draws they secured against Australia and France while never having to abandon their organized but methodical tactics. That may have to change for the Danish Dynamite in this match against a Croatia side that scored seven times in their three group stage matches. Despite their outstanding defensive numbers in this tournament, it would not be accurate to describe Denmark as a defensive team as they are willing to take their chances in attack led by Tottenham dynamo Christian Eriksen. In this national team’s four matches in the knockout stage of the World Cup, the Danes have scored seven times while allowing nineteen goals. The average total in those four matches was 4.75 combined goals scored. Croatia scored at least two goals in all three of their group stage matches even after making nine changes in their 2-1 victory over Iceland in their last contest against Iceland. The Vatreni are very gifted in their attacking players which facilitates their aggressive style. But despite their good defensive numbers, Croatia is less than stout in their backline. In the 2016 Euro which was their last international tournament, they allowed four goals in their three group stage matches while scoring five times. Their tournament ended with a 1-0 loss that was dictated by Portugal’s extreme caution that led to neither side attempting a shot on target in regulation time. The Vatreni have not played in a cautious manner like that match in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Denmark is unbeaten in their last eighteen matches and will be a difficult out in this elimination contest. Croatia will score — but the Danish Dynamite should keep pace. 25* World Cup Sunday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9767) and Croatia (9768). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 |
Top |
14-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (371) and the Calgary Stampeders (372). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (1-0) had the Week One bye — but they came out of the gate like gangbusters last week with a dominant 40-17 win over Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Calgary (2-0) remained undefeated this season with their 41-7 blowout win in Toronto in the revenge of their Grey Cup loss last Saturday as 4-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks dominated the Roughriders as they outgained them by +114 net yards due to their strong defensive play that limited Saskatchewan to just 345 total yards. Ottawa has then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +120 yards. It was the Redblacks defense that played a critical role in their late-season progression that led them to win the 2016 Grey Cup. This group regressed last year but the hiring of new defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe is very encouraging for this unit to get back to playing at an elite level given his strong reputation coordinating the Montreal defense for years. Ottawa also added a number of talented free agents to bolster their defensive group. Now the Redblacks go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less of rest including playing five of their last seven games played on a Thursday Under the Total. Calgary has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Stampeders have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least four touchdowns on the road. Calgary’s defensive unit remains quite good after suffering heartbreaking losses in the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons. They held an Argonauts team that upset them last November in that championship game to just 215 yards of offense. Moving forward, Calgary has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total in the month of June.
FINAL TAKE: With both these offenses reaching the 40 point threshold last week, it might be tempting for some bettors to expect another high-scoring game. While that sentiment has pushed the Total into the high 50s, don’t be surprised if this rematch of the 2016 Grey Cup ends up being decided by the defenses. 25* CFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (371) and the Calgary Stampeders (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Colombia v. Senegal OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Senegal (9753) and Colombia (9754). THE SITUATION: Senegal (1-1-0) enters this third match in Group H play coming off a 2-2 draw with Japan on Sunday. A draw in this match would be enough for Senegal to advance to the Knockout Stage. Colombia (1-0-1) comes off a 3-0 win over Poland on Sunday. This team needs a result while getting some help from Poland to advance to the Knockout Stage. A victory in this match sees Los Cafeteros through to the Round of 16. Colombia can live with a draw in this match only if Japan fails to defeat Poland.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Since both these teams have yet to clinch a spot in the Knockout Stage, both sides will likely feel senses of urgency on the pitch to score. We have already witnessed plenty of matches that are scoreless in the first-half before seeing a second-half that sees a handful of goals scored with desperation kicking in. When teams can no longer rely on parking the bus in their back end to play defense, not only does their aggressiveness create more scoring opportunities but it makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Colombia will need to be the aggressors to open this match since they need a positive result. Los Cafeteros are developing a nice trio of players complementing each other in James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado, and Juan Fernando Quintero. Rodriguez was the Golden Boot winner in the 2014 World Cup with six goals and two assists and was in-form for Bayern Munich this past season. He assisted on two of Colombia’s three goals. Quintero is known as “James Jr.” since his previous role was often to replace Rodriguez in the starting XI when their striker was unavailable but manager Jose Pekeman has decided to insert his talents into the starting group. Cuadrado is a solid cog in the midfield who plays professionally for Juventus. Pekeman is also getting a key piece back in midfielder Carlos Sanchez who was suspended for that match with Poland. And remember that in their 2-1 loss to Japan to begin their tournament, Los Cafeteros played that match with only ten players on the pitch for 84 minutes of that match after Sanchez was booked with a red card. The offensive prowess of this team probably was more accurately displayed against Poland considering that they were at full strength for all that match. Senegal has also scored four goals in this tournament while displaying some beautiful attacking moments. With Liverpool star Sadio Mane leading the way, the Lions of Teranga have one of the best offensive talents in the world on the pitch. Senegal plays a fast, attacking style when they are most comfortable. Manager Alion Cisse may try to have his team start cautiously considering that a scoreless draw serves them very well. But if and when this team falls behind, they will immediately need to begin pressing forward since they risk disaster if they lose this match. Senegal has scored two or more goals in each of their last six World Cup matches. And they have been a bit porous on the defensive end of things by giving up three goals in this tournament while experiencing a few more nervy moments.
FINAL TAKE: With the stakes high for both these teams, at least three combined goals seems highly likely before everything is said and done. 25* World Cup Group G Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Senegal (9753) and Colombia (9754). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Germany v. South Korea UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Korean Republic (9738) and Germany (9737). THE SITUATION: Both these teams remain technically alive to advance to the Knockout Stage. Germany (1-0-1) comes off a 2-1 win over Sweden last Saturday. They need to match Sweden’s result with Mexico while scoring one more goal than them in the process to ensure they secure the Goals-Scored tie-breaker. South Korea (0-0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Mexico on Saturday. The Taegeuk Warriors need Mexico to defeat Sweden while they defeat the Germans with one of these Wednesday victories occurring by at least two goals to put them in a position to eke out the second team advancing from Group F in what will turn out to be an elaborate tie-breaker.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Germany played better on Saturday than in their second match against Mexico where too often El Tri put them on their back foot. Die Mannschaft pulled out the victory over the Swedes despite being down to 10 men at the 82nd-minute mark when defenseman Jerome Boateng was issued a red card. The German defense did not waver — and they continued to pressure until Toni Kroos scored a spectacular goal in the waning moments of the six minutes of stoppage time. Germany will not have the services of Boateng in this match as he serves his suspension but the team will get back their best player on their back line in Matt Hummels who missed Saturday’s match with an injury. Germany will want to score goals in this match to secure the tie-breaker — but a comfortable win will likely be all they need to advance. They have only allowed two goals in this tournament while getting some outstanding player their keeper Manuel Neuer. But the Germans have only scored twice as they appear out of synch on offense from past squads. The Korean Republic’s goal against Mexico is the only time they have scored in this tournament. They lacked offensive imagination in their qualification matches so this their ability to get on the board will likely continue. Their main scoring threat is Son Heung-min who stars as a midfielder for Tottenham in the English Premier League — but the Germans have plenty of talent to key on him without sacrificing positioning elsewhere. The TaeGuek Warriors will be without their captain and best passer on the team in Ki Sung-Yueng who will be out for this match with a calf injury which leaves the offensive threats for this group even more limited.
FINAL TAKE: The Korean Republic will struggle to score goals in this match. Germany should control this match and win with comfort — but their zeal to run up the score will be mitigated by their need to control possession while limiting counter-attack opportunities from the Taeguek Warriors. 25* World Cup Group F Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the Korean Republic (9738) and Germany (9737). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. THE SITUATION: New York (50-22) has won seven of their last eight games with their 4-2 win over Seattle yesterday. Tampa Bay (34-40) has lost five of their last seven contests with their 5-1 loss at Houston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win. Additionally, New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.22 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played their last 4 games Under the Total with Sabathia starting in Tampa Bay. The veteran will be supported by a bullpen that is second in the AL with an ERA of 2.86. He faces a cold Rays lineup that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .191 batting average along with a .267 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 over that span. The Under is also 7-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays return home for the first time since June 13th. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games after being on the road for at least seven days — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, The Under is 19-7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 28 games after a loss — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They counter with Stanek will pitch the first inning tonight with it being a “bullpen game” for the Rays. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run this month in 10 2/3 innings consisting of eight appearances. He should be followed by Ryan Yarbrough who is pitching his regular fifth turn in the make-shift rotation out of the pen where he usually pitches 4 to 5 innings. Yarbrough is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season — and he has a 4.19 ERA with 1.08 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .229 when at home.
FINAL TAKE: The combination of Stanek and Yarbrough is solid for the Rays while Sabathia continues to cruise in the twilight of his career where he is thriving as a crafty lefty. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-18 |
Serbia v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-222 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Serbia (9475) and Switzerland (9476). THE SITUATION: Serbia (1-0-0) finds themselves in the driver’s seat in Group E after their opening 1-0 win over Costa Rica last Saturday. Switzerland (0-1-0) are in decent shape with their 1-1 draw with Brazil last Saturday as well but need some kind of result in this match.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Swiss National Team frustrated the power Brazilian side with a defensive web that featured pressing in the midfield. Switzerland is very organized with a strong midfield led by Sheridan Shaqiri and and Granit Xhaka who start for Stoke City and Arsenal. These high pressing tactics should also frustrate this Serbian team. Switzerland are well-respected and capable — but they are a side that looks to grind out low-scoring matches. In their Round of 16 run in the 2016 Euro, they allowed only two goals in four matches. However, they only scored three goals in those contests. Their lack of a quality center forward makes their manager Vladimir Petkovic reliant on defensive tactics for good results. Serbia displayed encouraging team cohesion in their victory over Costa Rica. Their lone goal by their center forward Aleksander Mitrovic came off a free kick set piece. But this is a side where scoring will likely be at a premium as well despite their scoring of 20 goals in an albeit weak qualification group that includes Wales, Georgia, Austria and Moldova. The Eagles have experienced talent in their back-line that will be relied on this match. Serbia will be quite content with a draw since it keeps them in position to advance to the Knockout Stage.
FINAL TAKE: There have been plenty of 1-0 results so far in this World Cup — and that looks like a distinct possibility in this match between two strong defensive teams that lack scoring prowess. 25* World Cup Friday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Serbia (9475) and Switzerland (9476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-18 |
Croatia v. Argentina OVER -2 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). THE SITUATION: Argentina (0-1-0) settled for a 1-1 draw with Iceland last Saturday in their opening match in the World Cup. Croatia (1-0-0) is alone in first place in Group D with their 2-0 victory over Nigeria.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Argentina was frustrated by the defensive tactics of Iceland who were content to park the bus in their back end. La Abliceleste scored only once despite their attempting a whopping 26 shots. However, Argentina would have remained in fine shape going into this match if Lionel Messi takes advantage of the penalty kick he took in that contest. Now La Abliceleste faces an urgent situation where a loss would put their chances to advance to the Group Stage very much in doubt. Sergio Aguero scored the only goal for Argentina which should ensure he remains in manager Jorge Sampaoli’s starting lineup with changes likely coming. Having the Manchester City star forward on the pitch to complement Messi should help the Argentine offense gel. However, La Abliceleste’s ability to slow down their opponents remains a big concern for this team whose high press makes them vulnerable in their back end that consists of players that are perhaps too old, too slowing and still unfamiliar with the system they are playing for their national team. Croatia will be relaxed after their decisive victory over the Super Eagles — and that makes them dangerous as technical underdogs. The Vatreni are very gifted with attacking players that are aggressive within their possession tactics. And while Croatia only allowed four goals in their last ten World Cup qualification matches, they are less than stout in their back end while being prone to errors. Like Argentina, the Vatreni typically face opponents primarily focused on defense with occasional counter-attacks given the oozing talent they have on the pitch.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this contest which makes a push the likely worst-case scenario. The urgency that Argentina will have in this match should ensure at least one of these two sides scores at least two goals. This will be an open, free-flowing match with neither side playing cautiously — and that is a formula for a high-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Group D Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-18 |
Iran v. Spain OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Iran (9457) and Spain (9458). THE SITUATION: Spain (0-1-0) earned a point last Friday with a 3-3 draw with Portugal. Iran (1-0-0) finds themselves alone in first place in Group B play with their 1-0 victory over Morocco on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain rallied from a 1-0 deficit against Portugal to take a 3-2 lead before having their hearts broken by Cristiano Ronaldo who scored a game-tying goal off a free kick in the 88th minute. The good news for La Roja is that their offense was clicking by scoring three goals on the defensive-minded reigning European champions who allowed only five goals in those seven matches in 2016. Diego Costa produced a brace with his two goals which provided ample evidence that his aggressive style could harmonize with the possession tactics of the Spanish national team. La Roja scored 36 goals in their ten qualification matches for this tournament — so this is a side that can generate another three goals themselves in this match. A draw would produce a nervy third match for the 2010 World Cup champions against Morocco — instead, this is a team that not only needs the 3 points from a victory but also some extra goals to boost their goal differential margin in case that becomes necessary as a tie-breaker to be one of the two teams that advance out of Group B. But the Spanish defense looked shaky at times on Friday — and their world-class keeper David de Gea did not perform well with the second goal he allowed to Ronaldo being a roller that he should have scooped up. La Roja’s tiki-taka style makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks — and this is the main source of offense coming from Team Melli. Iran did not score on Morocco in their match with the winning goal coming from an own-goal late in stoppage time. But they did pressure the Moroccan keeper with five shots on target in that match. In their qualification matches for this tournament where they went 12-6-0, the Iranians demonstrated that they can score goals with the core of their forwards and midfielders playing professionally in Europe. Their potential breakout star (their “Iranian Messi”) is 23-year-old Sardar Azmoun who plays his professional soccer in Russia. He has 23 goals in 33 national team contests.
FINAL TAKE: Spain is a powerhouse offensive juggernaut that will likely score at least two to three goals in this contest. But they have proven loose on the pitch in their back end — and Iran has the talent to stay competitive. This should be a high-scoring match. 25* World Cup Group B Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Iran (9457) and Spain (9458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-27) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 victory over the Cardinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have now seen the Under go 39-19-2 in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to Quintana who is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been very tough on the road where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in seven starts. The Cubs have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 road games with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Chicago has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching with five or six days of rest. Quintana has found a groove over his last three starts as he owns a 2.04 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Under is also 16-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cardinals (36-32) has seen the Under go 13-6-3 in their last 22 games after a loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 17 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eight starts. The rookie phenom has been better at home where he owns a 0.96 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Cubs’ offense that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .221 batting average along with a .309 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .645. Lastly, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a pitcher’s duel tonight with these two starters facing two teams swinging cold bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-18 |
Denmark v. Peru OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9421) and Peru (9422). Denmark and Peru face off in a match that will likely play a decisive role in who advances (along with France) out of Group C play. These two teams rank 12th and 11th in the world according to FIFA — and the ELO ratings have Peru 10th and Denmark 16th in the world. FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index that is used by ESPN ranks Denmark as the 14th best team in this tournament while dropping Peru to the 19th best side at the World Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While those various ranking systems diverge regarding who is likely the better side, all three suggest this will be a closely decided match between very competitive teams. The urgency of this situation should compel both sides to push the agenda. A victory for either side with those subsequent 3 points would put that team in a great position to advance to the Knockout Stage. On the other hand, a loss would be disastrous. Both sides can live with a draw — but that would only delay the likely resolution these two teams seem destined to have to determine who joins the French in the Round of 16. Denmark is led by a dynamic scorer in Christian Eriksen who stars for Tottenham in the English Premier League. The creative midfielder scored 11 goals in World Cup qualifying matches which was third most for any player — and his 41 scoring chances was the most of any player. He is supporting a group of complementary players with size and efficiency that mostly represent rosters in the professional leagues in Europe. Manager Age Hareire has his team play cautiously — but this group does not park the bus in back. The Danish Dynamite will aggressively attack their opponents as evidenced by their 5-1 victory over the Republic of Ireland which clinched their qualification for this World Cup. But the Denmark defense is vulnerable in their back end with significant questions regarding their fullback pair. Peru is dangerous given their attacking flair led by their 34-year-old talisman Paolo Guerrero who has been cleared to play by FIFA after seeing his suspension for a positive drug test overturned. Guerrero has 34 goals in 87 caps for the Incas. This is a battle-tested team that finished 5th in a very competitive CONMEBOL (finishing above reigning Copa America champion Chile). Peru reached the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America (with a win over Brazil) after a strong 3rd place finish in the 2015 Copa America. Manager Ricardo Gareca has this team in excellent form as they have not lost their last twelve matches since a 2-0 loss to Brazil in November of 2016. The Incas high-press creates scoring opportunities — but they are vulnerable in their back end particularly on the wing. Peru can also be beat via set pieces as they allowed ten goals off set pieces in their World Cup qualifying matches — so don’t be surprised if Eriksen scores or assists from that situation this afternoon.
FINAL TAKE: I expect both teams to score in this match with so much at stake. Neither of these teams expect to win through clean sheets. I think the worst case scenario is a push with the Total set at 2 in most spots — with a very good chance that at least three combined goals are scored. 25* World Cup Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9421) and Peru (9422). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-18 |
Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: New York (28-34) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 2-0 win over the Yankees. Atlanta (37-28) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Three of Wheeler’s last four starts were registered as Quality Starts. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 45 games with Wheeler facing a fellow NL East opponent. Atlanta (37-28) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Braves have also played 5 straight games Under the Total at home. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander has an outstanding 0.97 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .167 in his last six starts. Foltynewicz has only given up two earned runs or less in twelve of his thirteen starts this season. The Under is 5-1-2 in Atlanta’s last 8 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. The Mets’ bats are ice-cold as they are scoring average 1.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .143 batting average along with .211 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .454 over that span. Lastly, New York has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With two starting pitchers performing very well right now along with the anemic Mets’ bats in this game, expect a low-scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-18 |
Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
108-85 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (73-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 110-102 win in Cleveland (62-41) as a closing 3.5-point favorite. They have the opportunity to win back-to-back NBA Championships Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot 51.9% from the field after making 57.3% of their shots in Game Two — but they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Golden State has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning at least four straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Golden State has now played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total which includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 opportunities to close-out a playoff series, the Warriors have played all 4 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fifth game over the last fourteen days. Furthermore, the Cavaliers had 92 shots attempts in Game Three after taking 90 shots in Game Two — and they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games and this includes playing their last four games below the number in that situation. And in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Cleveland has played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first game in this series that will be played with just one day of rest. I look for a slower-paced game than the first three games of the series with perhaps both offenses taking a step back without the extra rest. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-18 |
Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-103 |
32 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). THE SITUATION: Washington (65-32-7) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 6-2 victory over the Golden Knights. This series goes back to Las Vegas for Game Five.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Capitals once again scored first in that game which allowed them to deploy their 1-3-1 trapping zone defense that clogs the neutral zone which has frustrated the speed of the Vegas skaters. Washington has allowed only five goals in the last three games after that opening game where they gave up six goals. Now the Caps go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games away from home. Additionally, Washington has played 16 of their last 22 Game Fives in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Under the Total — and this includes them playing seven straight Unders when leading by a 3-1 margin in the series. Furthermore, the Capitals have played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total when attempting to close-out a playoff series. Vegas (64-30-7) is cold with their scoring with their top three lines — especially their top line. For the Golden Knights to extend this series, they need to tighten things up on defense and offer help to goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Head coach Gerard Gallant made it clear that he did not think Fleury could do much to stop five of the six goals he allowed. Vegas has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, the Golden Knights have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored — and they have played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in Vegas’ last 5 games when facing an opponent that scored at least five goals in their last game. Lastly, the Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least five goals.
FINAL TAKE: Winning the fourth game in a playoff series is considered the most difficult — and the Capitals have a bad history of blowing 3-1 series leads. Expect both teams to be tight in this game. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-30) has won four straight games with their 6-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday. Arizona (31-27) has won five of their last six games with their 6-1 win in Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played their last three games Under the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. And in their last 11 opening games to a new series, the Over is 7-2-2. They give the ball to Holland who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 5.75 ERA in four starts this season. Holland has seen 4 of his last 5 starts against NL West teams finish Over the Total. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .815 OPS over that span. Arizona has played 6 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also seen the Over go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while the Diamondbacks have not allowed more than two runs in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Now Arizona goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Godley who is 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Godley on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .341 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams hitting the ball well right now, expect a high scoring game featuring two vulnerable starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-18 |
Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). THE SITUATION: Golden State (71-29) won the opening game of this series with their 124-114 win in overtime on Thursday over the Cavaliers as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had their offensive clicking in the first-half with the halftime score being a 56-56 tie. But things slowed down in the second-half — and that game only needed a flurry of baskets in the final two minutes of the game to reach 214 combined points (before overtime allowed for all Over tickets to be redeemed). Cleveland (62-29) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Cavs have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The extended schedule should help Cleveland’s effort on defense as they Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. The Cavs have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State shot 51.1% from the field which was their best shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread loss. The Under is also 19-6-1 in Golden State’s last 26 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors were out-rebounded by a 53 to 38 margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. Golden State has also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 40 of their last 65 home games Under the Total when laying 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Game Two to resemble the second-half on Thursday. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-18 |
Golden Knights v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (5) and the Washington Capitals (6). THE SITUATION: Washington (63-32-7) evened this series at a game apiece on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory over Vegas (64-28-7). The Capitals see this series return to DC where they will be hosting Games Three and Four.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the scoring fest in Game One that the Golden Knights won by a 6-4 score, Game Two settled down with just five combined goals. Braden Holtby was the hero for Washington as he stopped 37 of 39 Vegas’ shots including an epic save that robbed Alex Tuch of a goal with just 1:50 left in the third period. While Holtby was fantastic in Game Two, he was helped by a committed team that combined to block 18 shots before they reached him. The Capitals return home where they scored averaged only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game in their three home contests in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Under is 3-1-2 in Washington’s last 6 home games. The Capitals have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, Washington has played 18 of their last 29 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series. Vegas has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. Marc-Andre Fleury should play better tonight as he has allowed only seven goals while posting a .932 save percentage in games following up the three previous Golden Knights’ losses in the playoffs. Remember that Fleury posted a 1.68 Goals-Against-Average with a .947 save percentage in the first three series of this postseason. Vegas is scoring only 2.25 Goals-Per-Game on the road in the playoffs while allowing only 1.88 Goals-Per-Game on these eight contests. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games — and the Golden Knights have played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington hopes to have Evgeny Kuznetsov after he missed most of Game Two with a nasty left wrist injury — but his effectiveness remains in question which will contribute to the Caps’ playing cautiously. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (5) and the Washington Capitals (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Golden State Warriors (502). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (62-38) reached the NBA Finals with their 87-79 upset win in Boston on Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Golden State (70-29) sealed their fate to make this the fourth straight meeting between these two teams in the NBA Finals with their 101-92 win in Houston on Monday as a 6-point favorite. The first two games of this series are at the Warriors’ Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers held the Celtics to a season-low opponent’s field goal percentage of 34.1% on Sunday — but anyone watching that game will attest that Boston’s pathetic shooting deserves most of the credit for those numbers. Cleveland has then played 12 of the last 18 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 85 points in their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 35% from the field. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 31 of their last 45 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And while the last meeting between these two teams back on January 15th resulted in a 118-108 victory for the Warriors in Cleveland, the Cavs have then played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. Golden State closed out their series with the Rockets by playing five straight games Under the Total. The Warriors have then played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after playing four straight Unders. Golden State has also played a decisive 42 of their last 69 home games Over the Total when favored in the 12.5 to 18 points favorites — and this includes playing nine of their last fourteen Over the Total in that situation.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played four straight Overs to close out the NBA Finals last year with the Total ranging from 222 in Game Two to 231 in the final Game Five. While both these are not as potent offensive units as they were last year at this time, they both should play at a fast pace once again that both teams prefer. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Golden State Warriors (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (29-26) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with their 2-1 win over the Cubs. St. Louis (29-24) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-2 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. The Cardinals return home to host this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have lost five of their last seven games — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 road games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, they have played 21 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Williams who is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .170 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Pirates have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Williams on the mound. He faces a Cardinals teams that are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average, .285 On-Base Percentage and .661 OPS over that span. The Under is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis (29-24) has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games are a loss. The Cardinals have also seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. St. Louis has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five starts this season. Flaherty will be making just his second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies earlier this season. In three career starts at home, the right-hander has a 0.89 WHIP and .080 opponent’s batting average. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold-hitting Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .237 batting average, .266 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over that span. The Under is 4-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 — and the Under is 33-16-5 in their last 54 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both starting pitchers should dominate against two lineups that are struggling to score points. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-18 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-22) won the third game of this series on Tuesday with a 7-6 victory over the Mets. The series concludes with a fourth game tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 fourth games to a series. They give the ball to Teheran who is 4-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home in the hitter-friendly Sun Trust Park where he has a 5.54 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Teheran pitching on grass. Teheran faces a New York team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .290 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .810 over that span. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (26-26) saw their bullpen surrender all six runs yesterday — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least five runs. Additionally, the Mets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-3 with a 10.62 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been a disaster in three road starts where he has a 15.19 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP and .404 opponent’s batting average. Vargas had an 18-11 record with a 4.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year with the Royals — but those numbers were propped up very fortunate BABIP and Left-On-Base rates in the first-half of the season. His ugly 6.38 ERA over the second-half of the season took place after those metrics finally regressed back to the mean. Vargas faces an Atlanta team that scores 6.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .286 batting average, .360 On-Base Percentage and an .818 On-Base Percentage. The Braves also score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Lastly, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games with Vargas making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Vargas has been a mess for almost an entire calendar year while Teheran typically sees home/road splits that favor his being away from the new Sun Trust Park. Expect the hitters to enjoy the advantage for both teams tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-18 |
Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (1) and the Vegas Golden Knights (2). THE SITUATION: Washington (61-31-8) reached the Stanley Cup Playoff Finals with a 4-0 win in Tampa Bay in the seventh game of that series last Wednesday. Vegas (63-26-5) had earned their spot in the Finals last Saturday with their 2-1 win in Winnipeg that ended that series on five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: The Capitals defense along with goaltender Braden Holtby is clicking on all cylinders right now after shutting out a potent Lightning attack in the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals. Washington has then seen the Under go 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after a win — and they have also played 16 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after a win by at least three goals. The Capitals stay on the road where the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. And in their last 24 opening games to a new playoff series, the game finished Under the Total 17 times. Vegas has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a game where they did not score more than two goals. And in their last 19 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest, the Under is 12-5-2 for the Golden Knights.
FINAL TAKE: With Washington and Vegas having five days and nine days off since last taking the ice, expect both offensive attacks to be shaking off some rust. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (1) and the Vegas Golden Knights (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 |
Top |
87-79 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET own Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Boston Celtics (712). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (61-38) forced a climactic seventh game of this series on Friday with their 109-99 win over the Celtics. This series returns to TD Garden in Boston (66-34) tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was carried by LeBron James who scored 46 points on 17 of 33 shooting from the field who led his team to victory. George Hill added another 20 points on 7 of 12 shooting — but he is scoring only 5 PPG on 31% shooting when playing on the road in this series. Who will step up to help James with the scoring tonight? The Cavaliers have played 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, Cleveland has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when tied in a playoff series. Boston made 51.4% of their shots on Friday which was their best offensive effort in their last eleven games. But they should tighten up on offense in this climactic seventh game. They have played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing 12 of their last 15 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: With the pressure of this climactic seventh game, the unreliable Cavs supporting cast combined with this young Celtics roster will likely result in a lower scoring game. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Boston Celtics (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-18 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 214 |
Top |
86-115 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (509) and the Golden State Warriors (510). THE SITUATION: Houston (76-21) seized a 3-2 lead in this series on Thursday with their 98-94 upset win over the Warriors as a 1-point underdog. This series returns to the Oracle Center with Golden State (68-29) looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without Chris Paul in this contest who suffered a hamstring injury late in Thursday’s game. Paul was essential in that contest as he was his team’s best offensive player. James Harden is in a massive slump: he has missed 20 straight 3-pointers while making only 36.8% of his shots since the first game of this series. Houston will have to rely on their defense that has held the Warriors to under 100 points in two straight games with a series of sophisticated switching techniques that has frustrated this Golden State team. The Rockets have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a home underdog. Houston has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. And while the last three games in this series have gone Under the Total, the Rockets have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Additionally, Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Golden State has been lulled into exacerbating some of the bad habits they have picked on offense this year. They are attempting to execute isolation plays at triple the rate they were during the regular season which is not the egalitarian pass-oriented offense that Steve Kerr wants from this team. The Warriors clearly miss Andre Iguodala who remains listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The Warriors have seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Golden State returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 20 games when playing with same-season revenge, the Warriors have played 13 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is missing a key piece of their offense while Golden State is out-of-synch on offense. Yet both these teams with Top-Ten defenses during the regular season in terms of efficiency will lean on their defensive efforts in this contest. 25* NBA Saturday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (509) and the Golden State Warriors (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-18 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 224 |
Top |
94-98 |
Loss |
-109 |
65 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
05-23-18 |
Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54). THE SITUATION: Washington (61-32-7) forced a climactic Game Seven on Monday with their 3-0 shutout victory over the Lightning. This series returns to Tampa Bay (64-29-7) for Game Seven to determine the Eastern Conference champion.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: There are historical angles that provide evidence how teams respond to situations similar to the circumstances facing the two teams in question but there are also team trends that offer specific support regarding how those particular teams have responded in the past. With Washington and Tampa Bay, we have a good sample size of recent evidence suggesting a team personality regarding how they should respond tonight. The Lightning have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after getting shutout — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering a loss by at least three goals. Additionally, the Lightning have played 20 of their last 28 playoff games Under the Total when tied in a playoff series. And in their last 7 Game Sevens in the NHL Playoffs, Tampa Bay has played all 7 games Under the Total. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 Game Sevens Under the Total. Furthermore, the Capitals have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total when attempting to closeout a playoff series — and this includes them playing six of their last seven closeout games Under the Total. Lastly, the Under is 3-1-1 in Washington’s last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice.
FINAL TAKE: The oddsmakers have finally moved the Total off of 6 down to 5.5 for this contest. Despite that move, the Under remains a strong play. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Game Seven O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-18 |
Royals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-33) won the second game of this series last night by a 5-1 score. This three-game series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game in St. Louis (26-20).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Junes who is 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at home. Junis also is performing better in day games where he has a 2.75 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in three starts which all finished Under the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Under go 11-4-3 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has seen the Under go 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after a loss — and the Under is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 9-3-2 in the Cardinals’ last 14 home games. They counter with Wacha who is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season — and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.38 ERA in six starts as compared to his 4.60 ERA in three starts on the road. Last year, Wacha enjoyed a 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Wacha facing a team with a losing record. Wacha was also more effective during day games last year where he sported a 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.64 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average in night games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to see success in this afternoon midweek contest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224 |
Top |
95-92 |
Loss |
-107 |
17 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Golden State Warriors (506). THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-27) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their dominating 126-85 victory over the Rockets. They stay at home to host Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Golden State shot 52.2% from the field while making 13 of their 32 (40.6%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they will likely keep their offense clicking on all cylinders for this game. They have played 34 of their last 41 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They have also played an incredible 97 of their last 113 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they held Houston (74-21) to just a 39.5% field goal percentage, they have played 28 of their last 30 games(!) Over the Total after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 23 of their last 27 home games Over the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. Golden State has also played 22 of their last 28 home games when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Additionally, the Warriors have played 26 of their last 35 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 7 of their last 10 Game Fours in the playoffs Over the number. Houston failed to score in triple digits for the first time in these playoffs while that 39.5% field goal percentage was their lowest mark in eleven games. Even worse, their Offensive Rating of 87.9 in that game was their lowest number of the entire season. But the Rockets have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 29 of their last 38 games Over the Total with the number set at 220 or higher — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last eighteen games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher. Houston has also played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. Lastly, in their last 5 Game Fours in the playoffs, the Rockets have played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Houston should play much better on offense in this game — especially with the Warriors’ Andre Iguodala now listed as doubtful for this game. Iguodala has been the primary defender on James Harden in this series. Golden State should continue to play well on offense at home as well which should result in the highest scoring game so far in this season. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Golden State Warriors (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-15) has won four of their last five games after their 5-0 win over Baltimore on Sunday. Tampa Bay (22-23) hosts this series after seeing their six-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in ten starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road where he has a 0.83 WHIP and a .182 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.09 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average at home. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sale on the hill. He should pitch better against this Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .253 batting average, .322 On-Base Percentage and .694 OPS. Furthermore, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Ray’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a loss. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Faria who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander is struggling on the road with an 8.14 ERA and 1.56 WHIP but he has been much better at home where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Under is 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 home games with Faria facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Boston team that sees their team batting average drop to a .253 mark with a .307 On-Base Percentage and .725 OPS when on the road. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 5-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Faria usually pitches much better at home — this could end up being a pitching duel with Sale who is a bit more effective away from Fenway Park and it’s Green Monster. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-18 |
Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205.5 |
Top |
102-111 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (59-37) rebounded from losing the first two games of this series in Boston (65-32) by returning home to win Game Three decisively by a 116-86 score as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cavaliers host Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cleveland nailed 17 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Saturday and the evidence is quite strong that this strong play on offense will continue tonight as demonstrated by the established personality of this team. Cleveland has played a decisive 22 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Cavaliers have also played 40 of their last 47 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range — including six straight Overs. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 16 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying no more than 6 points. This team has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 28 Game Fours in the playoffs, the Cavs have played 20 of these games Over the Total — including eight of their last ten Game Fours. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. Furthermore, Boston has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 30 points. They made only 6 of their 22 (27.3%) shots from behind the arc en route to their 39.2% field goal percentage which was the worst offensive effort in their last nine games. The Celtics have played three straight Unders — but they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Lastly, Boston has played 23 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and this including them playing eight of their last nine games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends for both these teams strongly suggest that both will have strong offensive efforts. Cleveland will be playing with desperation down 2-1 while the Celtics can still feel loose with home court still in hand even with a loss. 25* NBA Playoff A-List O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-18 |
Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (9) and the Washington Nationals (10). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (64-28-3) has won the last three games in this series on Saturday with their 3-2 victory. Washington (60-32-7) returns home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Capitals have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing playoff elimination — they have plenty of experience in this situation. Washington has only scored two goals in each of their last three games — and they have seen the Under go 7-2-2 in their last 11 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Capitals have been frustrated by Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy who has a .943 save percentage in these last three games. Washington returns home where the Under is 9-3-4 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Capitals have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 6. Tampa Bay has scored at least three goals in each of these last three games — but they have then played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. The Lightning have also played 25 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. Additionally, the Under is 2-0-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 games after a victory. Lastly, the Lightning have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when attempting to close out a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning are committing themselves to block shots to help protect a confident Vasilevskiy who has definitely found the form he enjoyed in the first-half of this season. The Caps have become a defensive-first team this year who should play tight but controlled in this potential elimination game. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (9) and the Washington Nationals (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-18 |
Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (22-22) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 5-4 victory over the Astros. The series concludes tonight in Houston for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston (29-18) has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total played at night. They give then ball to McCullers who is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with McCullers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland stranded three baserunners last night — and they have then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after stranded three or fewer runners in their last game. The Indians have also played a decisive 47 of their last 38 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Carrasco who is 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been very tough on the road where he sports a 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Indians’ last 16 road games with Carrasco on the mound. He faces an Astros team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 19-7-1 in Houston’s last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Carrasco and McCullers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-18 |
Golden Knights v. Jets UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (7) and the Winnipeg Jets (8). THE SITUATION: Vegas (54-30-7) seized a 3-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-2 victory over the Jets. This series returns to Winnipeg (61-26-11) for Game Five.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are 8-1 if their score first in these playoffs — so not surrendering the first goal will be a priority for both teams. The Jets have only scored five goals in their last three games as goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has stymied them with a 1.67 Goals-Against-Average and a .951 save percentage in the last three games of this series which the Golden Knights have won. Winnipeg has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And while the Jets lost Game Three of this series by a 4-3 score, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge two straight loss to their opponent who scored at least three goals in both those victories. Winnipeg returns home where they are allowing only 2.25 Goals-Per-Game in eight postseason games — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Vegas has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games following a win — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Golden Knights are allowing only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in their seven playoff games away from home. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games on the road. And in their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series, Vegas has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
CONCLUSION: Winnipeg has made too many mistakes which have created scoring opportunities for Vegas. The Golden Knights should remain patient this afternoon while the Jets play cautiously to stop their miscues. 25* NHL Conference Finals NBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (7) and the Winnipeg Jets (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-18 |
A's v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-21) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-3 victory in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Oakland has also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +200 price range. They send out Cahill who is coming off the 10-day disabled list exactly ten days after going on the DL — and his teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when he was pitching with at least ten days between starts. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts — but he has a 4.91 ERA in two starts on the road while not yet allowing an earned run in his two starts at home. Last year, Cahill had an awful 7.07 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road in his stints with Kansas City and San Diego. The Over is 3-0-1 in Cahill’s last 4 road starts. He faces a strong hitting team in Fenway Park as Boston is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .287 batting average along with a .804 OPS. The Over is 9-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 13 home games against teams against a right-handed starting pitcher. Boston (28-14) has played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Sale who is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster looming in left-field with his 1.06 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 0.83 WHIP and .182 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Sale had a 2.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road with those numbers all rising to a 3.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sale on the hill. Lastly, the Over is 26-8-2 in the A’s last 36 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
CONCLUSION: The Red Sox should pound Cahill while Sale should give up a few runs on his end of things. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 |
Top |
94-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (701) and the Boston Celtics (702). THE SITUATION: Boston (64-31) was dominant on Sunday as they crushed the Cavaliers in the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals by a 108-83 score as a 1-point underdog. The Celtics host Game Two.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers were dreadful on offense in this game as they made only 4 of their 26 (15.4%) of their 3-point shots while shooting just 36% from the field. That was their worst field goal percentage in their last 44 games. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, the Cavs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss that was by at least 20 points. Boston (64-31) is not likely to play as well on defense in this contest when considering that the Cavs’ 36% field goal percentage was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 43 contests. The Celtics have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 12 games at home in TD Garden, Boston has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: This should be a close game which will drive the combined score over the number. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (701) and the Boston Celtics (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-18 |
Raptors v. Cavs OVER 214 |
Top |
93-128 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (57-35) has taken a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 105-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite over the Raptors. They host Game Four with the opportunity to close this series out.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers raced out to a 55-40 lead at halftime on Saturday before holding on for that victory. Cleveland has then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading at halftime by at least 15 points in their last game. The Cavaliers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Cleveland has won four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. The Cavs have played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Cleveland has also played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when playing with the possibility of closing out the series with a win. Toronto (63-28) has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Raptors have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Toronto has played has lost five games in a row to the Cavaliers going back to the regular season. The Raptors have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that they have lost to at least four times in a row. Lastly, Toronto has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the playoffs when facing elimination.
CONCLUSION: Expect a high-scoring game with the Raptors playing like they did in the second-half where they scored 63 points with the pressure off after digging a likely insurmountable hole in this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-18 |
Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2). THE SITUATION: Washington (56-30-7) has the opportunity to finally defeat the Penguins in the playoffs after seizing a 3-2 lead in this series on Saturday with their 6-3 victory. The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions return home to Pittsburgh where to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh (54-33-6) has lost three of their last four games — but they have won their last four games when facing the possibility of playoff elimination. Expect goalie Matt Murray and this entire Penguins team to play very tough — particularly on defense. Pittsburgh has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when trailing in the playoffs. Additionally, the Under is 6-1-1 in the Penguins’ last 8 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least six goals in their last contest. Washington has played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total when having the possibility to close out a playoff series — and this includes playing five of these last six situations Under the Total. The Capitals have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when leading in a playoffs series. The team may be without Nicklas Backstrom who is a game-time decision tonight as he deals with an upper-body injury. Backstrom is tied for second on the team with 13 points in these playoffs with three goals and ten assists playing mostly with Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin has already lost Tom Wilson on his line due to his three-game suspension that concludes tonight — so more disruption to that chemistry will not help the Capitals offensive designs. Furthermore, Washington has allowed three goals in the last three games of this series — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least three goals in three straight games.
CONCLUSION: Expect a tight, low-scoring game. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-18 |
Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 231 |
Top |
118-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (705) and the New Orleans Pelicans (706). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (53-36) made this a series on Friday by crushing the Warriors by a 119-100 score as a 4.5-point underdog. They host Game Four in the Big Easy.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Golden State (64-26) should bounce-back with a much better effort after being pretty lethargic with the comfort of their 2-0 lead in this series. The Warriors shot just 38% from the field which was the worst offensive effort in their last four games — and they made just 9 of their 31 (29.0%) of their 3-point shots. Golden State has played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after an upset loss. The Warriors’ 26 free throws in Game Three were 14 more opportunities at the charity stripe — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total after attempting at least 10 more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when not playing more than their fifth game in fourteen days. Golden State has played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have also played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total as a road favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 30 of their last 38 games Over the Total with the number at the lofty 230 or higher point range — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last eighteen games Over the Total when on the road. New Orleans (53-36) has played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 21 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a double-digit win. And in the Pelicans’ last 13 games after a win by at least 15 points, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: New Orleans should continue to feed off the energy of their crowd — which is why I am passing on the side play with the Pelicans being a home dog (though I lean to the Warriors). This is an instance where just taking the Over seems prudent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (705) and the New Orleans Pelicans (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-18 |
Bruins v. Lightning UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (63) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (64). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (61-25-3) has won three straight games in this series to seize a commanding 3-1 lead with their 4-3 victory over the Bruins on Friday. They return home with the opportunity to close out this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect the Bruins (58-26-9) to tighten things up on defense as they look to grind out a low-scoring victory and extend this series back to Boston. Boston has played 10 of the lsat 15 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. Boston has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Additionally, the Bruins have played 14 of their last 17 road gams Under the Total after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival. Now Boston goes back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 6 or higher. The Under is also 8-3-1 in the Bruins’ last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on home ice. Boston has also played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against Atlantic Division foes. Tampa Bay (61-25-3) has played 12 of their last 17 Game Fives in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Under the Total — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when up 3-1 in the series. The Lightning have also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with the opportunity to close out a playoff series. Lastly, while Tampa Bay has scored four goals in three straight games, they have then played 24 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games.
CONCLUSION: I lean strongly to the Bruins as a big underdog today — but this is an ideal situation to translate that play into a two-team parlay with the Under. 25* NHL 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (63) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-18 |
Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 210 |
Top |
113-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (515) and the Utah Jazz (516). THE SITUATION: Utah (53-37) evened this series at 1-1 with their 116-108 upset win in Houston as a 10.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Jazz now return home to Salt Lake City to host Game Three tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Utah has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road as a double-digit underdog. The Jazz were on-fire with their shooting on Wednesday as they made 15 of their 32 (46.9%) shots from bind the arc. Their 51.8% field goal percentage in that game was their best shooting performance in their last five games. Utah returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Jazz have also played 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog of 6 points or less. Utah has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Houston (70-19) needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing this Jazz team to make at least 50% of their shots in the first two games of this series — and that came after allowing Minnesota to shoot 50.6% from the field in their close out game with the Timberwolves in their previous playoff series. Utah has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at home. Houston goes back on the road after playing their last three games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after playing their last three games at home. And while the Rockets have scored at least 105 points in five straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Lastly, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.
CONCLUSION: Expect the third game of this series to be lowest scoring game so far between these two teams in the playoffs. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (515) and the Utah Jazz (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-18 |
Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the Vegas Golden Knights (26). THE SITUATION: San Jose (51-29-10) evened this series at two games apiece on Wednesday with their 4-0 shutout victory over the Golden Knights. This series returns to Las Vegas for this crucial fifth game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: The Sharks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total registering a shutout win at home. San Jose peppered the Knights’ goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury with 34 shots after putting 47 and 42 shots on him in the previous two games in this series. But San Jose has then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after generating at least 33 shots on target in at least three straight games. The Sharks have won two of the last three games in this series — and they have then played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. Furthermore, San Jose has also played 35 of their last 54 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. Vegas (57-29-7) suffered their first loss in regulation in the playoffs. They have allowed eleven goals over these last three games after winning Game Three of this series by a 4-3 score in overtime. The Golden Knights have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least three goals in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least three goals in three straight games. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Vegas’ last 10 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 8 opportunities to avenge a blowout loss by at least three goals, the Golden Knights have played 6 of these games Under the Total.
CONCLUSION: Expect this important fifth game in this tied series to be played very close to the vest similar to how Vegas played all their games against Los Angeles in the first-round of the playoffs. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the Vegas Golden Knights (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-18 |
Predators v. Jets UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
106 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (21) and the Winnipeg Jets (22). THE SITUATION: Nashville (58-21-4) scored three goals in the first period but preceded to blow that lead on Tuesday in a 7-4 loss to the Jets. The Predators find themselves down 2-1 in this series while having to play once again in Winnipeg.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Nashville has to tighten things up regarding their discipline and play on defense after committing four penalties in the third period with three of them occurring after tying the game at 4-4. The Predators should get better play from goalie Pekka Rinne who has a 1.35 Goals-Against-Average with a .957 save percentage in the last three games in their first-round series with Colorado. The Under is 10-1-1 in Nashville’s last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The final two goals by Winnipeg (58-22-11) in Game Three were empty netters. The Predators have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a game where both teams scored at least three goals. Nashville has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a loss on the road to a Central Division rival. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games as they have after winning their opening round series against Minnesota in six games. Winnipeg has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least six goals. They should get better play from their goaltender Connor Hellebuyck who had a 0.33 GAA along with a .991 save percentage with two shutouts in his last three games of that series with the Wild. And in their last 6 games on their home ice, the Jets have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
CONCLUSION: After high-scoring games in Games Two and Three of this series, expect this fourth game to be a low scoring affair. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (21) and the Winnipeg Jets (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-18 |
76ers v. Celtics OVER 205.5 |
Top |
103-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). THE SITUATION: Boston (60-30) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 117-101 upset win versus Philadelphia (56-32) as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics host Game Two.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: Boston has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Celtics have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. Boston has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. They held the Sixers to just a 42.2% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last three games — so that is area that should see some regression. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total on their home court. Philadelphia (56-32) made only 5 of their last 26 (19.2%) shots from behind the arc despite averaging 11 made shots from behind the arc with a 37.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land on the road. Yet despite that poor shooting effort, they still scored 101 points. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Lastly, Philly has played 23 of their last 34 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.
CONCLUSION: Expect another higher-scoring game between these two teams with Philly likely to play much better on offense and Boston happy to play at their pace while launching plenty of 3s. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-18 |
Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 207 |
Top |
116-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (507) and the Houston Rockets (508). THE SITUATION: Houston (70-18) won the opening game of this series on Sunday by a 110-96 score as an 11.5-point favorite. The Rockets dominated that game from the jump and held a 27-point lead at one point in the first-half while cruising to an easy victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Utah (52-37) needs to play much better on the defensive end of the court while making adjustments so that Rudy Gobert is roaming the middle again to protect the rim. Gobert did not block a shot on Saturday while Houston and too many easy shot attempts inside. The Jazz have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They also have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Utah did make 50% of their shots in Game One which was the best offensive effort in their last four games. Despite being without Ricky Rubio, the Jazz collected 20 team assists that resulted in 38 field goals in that game — and it is difficult seeing them performing much better on offense despite that only producing 96 points with Rubio out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Houston nailed 17 of their 32 (53.1%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday so they are due for an appearance from the Regression Gods in that aspect of their hame. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight up win — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Houston has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Rockets have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total including six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record on the road.
CONCLUSION: The adjustments in Game Two should favor the defensive end of the court for both teams leading to a lower scoring game. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (507) and the Houston Rockets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-18 |
76ers v. Celtics OVER 205 |
Top |
101-117 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Boston Celtics (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-31) gets back to the court for the first time since last Tuesday when they eliminated Miami in five games with their 104-91 victory as a 10-point favorite. Boston (59-30) has a quick turnaround after defeating Milwaukee on Saturday in Game Seven of that series by a 112-96 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: Philadelphia (56-31) played their best defensive game in terms of opponent field goal percentage in their last game by holding the Heat to just a 38.6% shooting percentage. That defensive effort helped that game finish below the 215.5 point Total — but the 76ers have played 28 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And in their last 22 road games as the favorite, the 76ers have played 16 of these games Over the Total. Boston (59-30) should come out smoking in regards to their shooting after making 53.6% of their shots on Saturday. The Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Boston has 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. And in their last 8 games on their home court, the Celtics have played 7 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: While the Total for this game is dropping after initially being installed at 210, that line movement is going the wrong way. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but it is his absence which has led to the line dropping. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Boston Celtics (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (13) and the Nashville Predators (14). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (57-21-11) seized home ice advantage in this series by stealing Game One of this series by a 4-1 score. Game Two will played again in Nashville.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: Nashville (57-20-4) will be desperate to even this series at 1-1 to avoid traveling to Winnipeg trailing by two games. The Predators have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least three goals to their opponent. Nashville has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, while the Predators have played four straight games Under the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. And in their last 7 games at home, Nashville has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Winnipeg (57-21-11) has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by at least three goals over a Central Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when scoring at least four goals in a win over a divisional rival. The Jets have only allowed one goal in their last three games — but they have then played 24 of their last 38 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in three straight games while also playing 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than one goal in three straight contests.
CONCLUSION: Nashville had 48 shots on net on Friday — maintaining that pressure again should ensure their share of goals. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (13) and the Nashville Predators (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 199 |
Top |
101-105 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Friday when they destroyed the Cavaliers by a 121-87 score as a 1.5-point favorite. Game Seven returns to Cleveland (53-35).
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Indiana made 15 of their 30 shots from behind the arc en route to their 56.3% field goal percentage on Friday which was the best shooting performance in their last 58 games. Expect those numbers to decline significantly when playing on the road under the pressure of a Game Seven. As it is, the Pacers shoot only 46.8% with a 36.2% mark from 3-point land when on the road. The Under is 19-6-1 in Indiana’s last 26 games on the road. Indiana has also played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Pacers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Cleveland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Cavs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss as well as a point spread loss. Cleveland should play better on defense after enduring their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 35 games. The Cavs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. But while Cleveland shot just 41.8% from the field on Friday, that was actually a better shooting mark than their 41.3% field goal percentage at home in Game Five. The Cavaliers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total.
CONCLUSION: The Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 games between these two teams — including going 3-0-1 in the last 4 games played in Cleveland. Expect these team trends to continue this afternoon. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-18 |
Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226 |
Top |
101-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (52-34) reached the Western Conference Semifinals by sweeping Portland in four games after their 131-123 win last Saturday. Golden State (62-25) defeated San Antonio in five games with their 99-91 win over the Spurs on Tuesday. Stephen Curry took part in practice to prepare for this game but he is officially listed as questionable.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: The Pelicans were unstoppable on offense against the Trail Blazers as they made 57% of their shots in their close out game which was their third straight game where they made at least 51.2% of their shots. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games. The Pelicans have also played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The extended break should help the Pelicans offensive flow as well — they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Golden State (62-25) has played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And while the Warriors have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in Golden State’s last 6 games on their home court. And in their last 7 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, they have played 5 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: Even if Curry does not play tonight, the Warriors should be quite content to engage the Pelicans in an up-tempo game in which they feel they have the advantage over every team in the league. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-18 |
Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (89) and the Vegas Golden Knights (90). THE SITUATION: Vegas (56-27-7) blew out the Sharks in the opening game of this series by a 7-0 score on Thursday. San Jose will be without Evander Kane tonight after he was suspended for a cross-check to the face of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: The Sharks will tighten things up on defense after their embarrassing effort on Thursday where they were caught by surprise by the speed of the Golden Knights. San Jose has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Goalie Martin Jones was pulled after allowing five goals on just 13 shots in that game. However, Jones had a 0.99 Goals-Against-Average along with a .966 save percentage during the regular season in games following a contest where he was pulled — so he should play very well tonight. The Sharks have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road after a loss by at least two goals. They will miss Kane who registered 14 points in the 17 games he played with the team since being acquired from Buffalo — and he scored three goals with one assist in the first-round of the playoffs. San Jose has also played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total when playing no more than their 5th game in fourteen days. Vegas (56-27-7) might be without Bellemare tonight given that injury which will hurt their Power Play Unit. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is playing as well as he has any time in his career with two straight shutouts. He has a .982 save percentage in the playoffs. The Under is 7-2-1 in Vegas’ last 10 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.
CONCLUSION: The Total has moved to 5.5 for this game after Vegas played their first five games in these playoffs with the Total just at 5. The Golden Knights scored only seven total goals in their four games against Los Angeles while surrendering only three goals. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (89) and the Vegas Golden Knights (90). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-18 |
Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (81) and the Vegas Golden Knights (82). THE SITUATION: Both these teams come off 4-0 sweeps in the first-round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. San Jose (49-27-10) swept the Ducks after closing out that series last Wednesday with their 2-1 win in Anaheim. Vegas (55-27-7) proved that their regular season was no fluke by sweeping the Kings after defeating them last Tuesday by a 1-0 score.
THE REASONS FOR TAKING THE UNDER: Both these teams may be rusty since they are playing with seven days and eight days off since their last game. The risk of rust will likely compel both teams to play cautiously in this opening game. The Sharks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contests while the Golden Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Both these teams have hot goalies with Marc-Andre Fleury posting a 0.65 Goals-Against-Average with a .977 save percentage in the LA series for Vegas while Martin Jones allowed only four goals in four games against the Ducks while registering a .970 save percentage for San Jose. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Sharks’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Vegas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home ice. The Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 7-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last 9 games after allowing no more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after shutting out their opponent in their last game.
CONCLUSION: These are two teams very comfortable in playing low-scoring games. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (81) and the Vegas Golden Knights (82). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-18 |
Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 201 |
Top |
86-97 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29) looks to close out this series tonight on the road in perhaps the last game ever to be played in the Bradley Center after taking a 3-2 lead in this series by a 92-87 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics got Marcus Smart back in that game and not only is one of the team’s best defensive players but he has been described as “kind of like the soul of our team” by fellow veteran Al Horford.” Milwaukee (46-41) returns home as the favorite looking to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game of this series. The Celtics and Bucks had played five straight and eight straight Overs respectively before Game Five finished below the Total that closed in the 202.5 range.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Boston has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing 90 points or less in their last game. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 19 Game Sixes in the NBA Playoffs Under the Total — so their history suggests a lower scoring defensive struggle. The insertion of Smart into the rotation is very significant as he can defend the Bucks’ Khris Middleton who has been one of Milwaukee’s two consistent offensive players in this series. The other reliable offensive player for the Bucks has been Giannis Antetokounmpo — but Brad Stevens made an interesting switch in Game Five by starting his rookie big man Semi Ojeleye to defend the Greek Freak. Ojeleye played 40 possessions on Antetokounmpo which accounted for half the game while holding him to a series-low 16 points. Ojeleye’s insertion into the lineup is a game-changer for the Celtics as it created smaller lineups with Greg Monroe pushed out the rotation while Stevens avoided playing Aron Bynes along with Al Horford at the same time. These moves gave the Celtics flexibility on defense for the first time in this series as all five players on the court could switch of screens without needing help. Milwaukee had shot at least 52.1% from the field in Games Two through Four in this series but those look like outlier performances to the 109 Points Per 100 Possession scoring rate that ranked 13th in the NBA during the regular season. I expect points to be hard to come by again for this team. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 90 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 185 combined points were scored. Prunty does have this team playing better defense. The Celtics shot 42% from the floor in their winning effort on Tuesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last three games.
CONCLUSION: Expect the pressure of a elimination/close out game to negatively impact the shooting of both these teams — and with the Total still in the low 200s, the line has not adjusted to what looks to be the new reality of this series. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-18 |
Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (87) and the Washington Capitals (88). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (51-31-6) advanced to the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs by knocking off the Flyers in six games culminating in an 8-5 win in Philadelphia on Sunday. Washington (53-28-7) rallied from an 0-2 deficit by winning four straight games against the Blue Jackets by closing that series out in Columbus on Monday with a 6-3 win. These two teams have faced off in each of the last two postseasons with the Penguins winning both times en route to winning the Stanley Cup.
REASONS WHY TO TAKE THE UNDER: Both these veteran playoff teams tend to play cautiously in the opening games of a new playoff series. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 14 opening games to a new series Under the Total while Washington has played 16 of their last 23 opening games to a new series Under the Total. The Penguins look due for an Under after that high-scoring closeout game against the Flyers as the Under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game while the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Pittsburgh will also be undermanned at the forward position with both Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin out for this contest with injuries which decimates their second line. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four in a row — and they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three goals. The Capitals have also played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. CONCLUSION: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With the Total set at 6 for this opening game, expect a lower scoring game to contrast the high scoring game both teams closed out their previous series with. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (87) and the Washington Capitals (88). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-18 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-114 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) and the Boston Bruins (26). Toronto (52-29-5) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Monday with their 3-1 victory at home over the Bruins. Expect Mike Babcock to instruct his team to play disciplined and controlled hockey in this climactic game since surrendering a goal or two to the Bruins on their home ice could be the recipe for this game quickly spiraling out of hand. As it is, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Maple Leafs last 5 games after a victory. The Under is also 2-0-2 in Toronto’s last 4 games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. And in their last 8 games after a win by at least two goals against an Atlantic Division rival, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Maple Leafs are getting great goaltending from their veteran Frederick Andersen who has stopped 74 of the 78 shots he has faced in the last two games of this series. But Andersen has been helped by his teammates blocking 45 shots in these last two games as they begin to appreciation the need for defense in desperation elimination game situations in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Boston (56-23-9) has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against an opponent that allowed no more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals against their opponent. And while Boston has lost two of their last three games, they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 30 games against Atlantic Division foes, the Bruins have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Their top line has been slowed down to an injury to Patrice Bergeron over these last two games yet — that top forward group of Bergeron along with Brad Marchand and David Patrnak have not registered a point in the last two games of this series. Lastly, in their last 8 Game Sevens in the NHL Playoffs, Boston has played 5 of these games Under the Total. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Game Seven O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) and the Boston Bruins (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-18 |
Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 |
Top |
15-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Washington (10-14) has lost four straight games after their 4-3 loss in Game Two of this series against the Giants. The Nationals are swinging cold bats right now as they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .211 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over that span. These cold bats have helped Washington play four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Nationals have not committed an error in the field in five straight games — and they have then played 39 of their last 63 games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing as a road favorite with double-revenge on their minds. They send out Scherzer who is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he enjoyed a 1.82 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when at home. Scherzer was also better in day games where he sported a 1.90 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .140 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at night. Washington has seen the Under go a decisive 31-14-6 in their last 51 games on the road. The Nationals have also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Scherzer on the mound on the road. He should fare well against this San Fran team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 15-5-1 in the Giants’ last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (11-12) has won three straight games while hammering home runs in seven straight contests — but they will be facing a starting pitcher in Max Scherzer who has only allowed two homers this season. Despite this home runs, the Giants are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games which is only a slight tick above the 3.2 Runs-Per-Game rate for the season. They are also hitting only .235 with a .292 On-Base Percentage and a .716 OPS over these last seven contests. The Under is 35-16-4 in their last 55 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. San Fran has also only played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work in his first start of the season on Friday on Los Angeles against the Angels. The right-hander started the season on the Disabled List with a pectoral injury but looked very good in that start. Last season, Samardzija was more effective at home where he owned a 3.97 ERA and .251 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.81 ERA and .258 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Samardzija struggled with giving up too many home runs last year — particularly in hitter’s parks like Colorado and Arizona. But he also struck out batters 24.2% of the time while only issuing walks in a career-low 3.8% of his batters faced. Those peripherals help explain why both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.63 and 3.60 off this 2017 numbers. Samardzija was also better during day games where hewed a 1.08 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average at night. The Giants have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching as an underdog. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching with four days of rest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-18 |
Predators v. Avalanche UNDER 6 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Nashville (55-20-4) scored in the third period on Friday to take a 1-0 lead over the Flyers with the opportunity to close out that series in five games — but they then allowed two goals to lose Game Five of this series by a 2-1 score. Expect another low-scoring game in Game Six. While the Predators have much more balance and depth on offense this season versus their team that reached the Stanley Cup Finals last year, this is a team that is very comfortable playing low-scoring games behind the best blue-line in the NHL along with a goaltender in Pekka Rinne who will likely win the Vezina Trophy this season. Nashville has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Predators have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to a Central Division rival. Furthermore, the Under is 8-2-1 in Nashville’s last 11 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game.
Colorado (47-33-8) got an outstanding effort from third-string goaltender Andrew Hammond who was pressed into service with an injury to Jonathan Bernier in Game Four of this series. The Hamburglar has certainly enjoyed hot streaks in his NHL career (most notably with Ottawa a few seasons ago) so he there should be a positive carry over from his stopping 44 of the 45 shots he faced on Friday. Good goaltending is also a product of good defense — and the Avalanche will likely continue to play less aggressively than they would if their first-stringer Semyon Varlamov was between the pipes. That is a recipe for another low-scoring game. As it is, Colorado has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win over a Central Division rival. Furthermore, the Avalanche have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal. Colorado has also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win on the road by just one goal — and this includes them playing four of these last situations Under the Total. Additionally, in games with the Total set at 6 or higher, when the home team comes off a win on the road against a divisional rival, these games finished Under the Total in 209 of these last 341 situations (61%) where these conditions applied. Lastly, in games with the Total set at 6 or higher, when the road team comes off a loss against a division rival now faces a team that comes off win on the road against a division foe, these games finished Under the Total in 60 of these last 88 situations. 25* NHL NBC-Sports Network 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-21-18 |
Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
102-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (723) and the Utah Jazz (724). Utah (49-35) evened this series at one game apiece with their 102-95 upset win in Portland on Wednesday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jazz return home for this first time since April 10th after playing three straight games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least the last seven days. Utah has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Jazz have also played 12 of the last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine games Under the Total when playing on their home court with two days of rest. Additionally, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Furthermore, the Under is 20-8-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games against fellow Northwest Division opponents.
Oklahoma City (49-35) played their best defensive game in their last ten games by limiting the Jazz to just a 41.7% field goal percentage — and they should continue to play well on the defensive end of the court. The Thunder have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite — and this includes playing seven straight Unders off an upset loss as a home favorite to a fellow Northwest Division rival. Oklahoma City has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Thunder have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now OKC goes on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. The Thunder have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against fellow Northwest Division opponents. And as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Oklahoma City has played 23 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a road favorite. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Utah, the game finished Under the Total all 8 times. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (723) and the Utah Jazz (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-21-18 |
Devils v. Lightning UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Jersey Devils (65) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (66). Tampa Bay (57-24-3) has the opportunity to close out this series tonight after taking a 3-1 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 3-1 victory over the Devils. The Lightning are getting great play from their goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who has rebounded from a second-half slump to post a 2.26 Goals-Against-Average along with a .937 save percentage in this series. The Tampa Bay Power Play Kill Unit has also stepped up to negate 15 of New Jersey’s 18 Power Play chances for a 83.3% clip which is much better than their 76.1% mark during the regular season. This has become a physical series which has slowed down the torrid scoring pace that defined the earlier games in this series. The Lightning have only scored five goals over these last two games after scoring five goals in both Game One and Game Two of this series. This should be another low-scoring affair — they have played 11 of their last 16 Game Fives in a playoff series Under the Total. Tampa Bay has also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. And in their last 19 opportunities to close out a playoff series, the game finished Under the Total 12 times — and this includes them playing three of their last four games Under the Total in that situation.
New Jersey (46-32-5) has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Devils have also played 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home by two more more goals. Goalie Cory Schneider was solid in net on Wednesday even in defeat as he stopped 34 of the 36 shots he faced. In this series, Schneider has stopped 78 of the 82 shots he has encountered since taking over for Keith Kinkaid for a sizzling .951 save percentage. Moving forward, New Jersey has played 5 of their last 6 games in the fifth game of an NHL series Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when trailing by a 3-1 mark in the NHL Playoffs. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Jersey Devils (65) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-20-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
90-92 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Indiana Pacers (712). Cleveland (51-33) raced out to a 16-1 lead in the opening minutes of Game Two of this series on Wednesday — and they held on to win that game by a 100-97 score as an 8.5-point favorite. The Cavaliers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Cleveland has also played 11 of their last 15 games after a win on their home court where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. The Cavs shot 50.7% from the field while nailing 11 of their 28 (39.3%) shots from behind the arc — yet they scored 10 points below their 110.4 PPG season scoring average. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Over is also 4-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
Indiana (49-35) has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Pacers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road against their opponent. Furthermore, the Under is 24-7-1 in Indiana’s last 32 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Pacers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Indiana Pacers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-19-18 |
Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207 |
Top |
110-97 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the San Antonio Spurs (528). Golden State (60-24) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Monday with their 116-101 win as an 8.5-point favorite. The Warriors made 52.6% of their shots in that game after making 54.3% of their shots in Game One of this series fueled by them nailing 15 of their 31 (48.4%) of their shots from behind the arc. Golden State is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods tonight in regards to their shooting — especially with them playing on the road where they see their 3-point shooting drop to a 37.7% clip as compared to their 39.3% 3-point shooting mark for the season. The Warriors have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Golden State’s last 27 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State won the opening game of this series by a 113-92 score — and they have then played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by double-digits. Now the Warriors go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
San Antonio (47-37) has now lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests. The Spurs have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. Game Two finished well above the 205.5 point total — and San Antonio has also played 13 of their last 18 games on their home court Under the Total after game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, the Spurs have seen the Under the Total go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 games when avenging two straight double-digit losses to their opponent. Now the Spurs return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the San Antonio Spurs (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-18-18 |
Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-136 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (63) and the San Jose Sharks (64). San Jose (48-27-10) has the opportunity to close this series out tonight after they took a commanding 3-0 lead with their 8-1 win on Monday in Game Three of this series. The Sharks have seen the Over go 12-3-2 in their last 17 games after a win. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in San Jose’s last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 5 goals in their last game. The Sharks enjoyed eight Power Play opportunities in that game which was filled with Ducks’ committing penalties — and they scored on four of those Power Play chances. San Jose has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after getting ate last eight Power Play chances in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 4-0-1 in the Sharks’ last 5 games after allowing no more than two goals in their last game — and the Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last contest. San Jose can close this series out at home where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total.
Anaheim (45-28-13) has only scored three goals in this series — so they will be desperate to generate more offense tonight. The Ducks need to get more bodies in front of the net to pressure the Sharks’ goaltender Martin Jones. The Over is 3-1-1 in Anaheim’s last 5 games after a loss by at least three goals. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Ducks’ last 5 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Anaheim’s last 4 games when playing with one day of rest. But in trying to create more offense, the Ducks’ blue-line has creeped up into San Jose’s side of the ice which has made them vulnerable to the Sharks’ speed on rushes of their own. San Jose has scored fourteen goals in this series and do not seem to be letting up. Lastly, the Sharks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. 25* NHA 1st Round Pacific Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (63) and the San Jose Sharks (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-13-18 |
Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Wild (53) and the Winnipeg Jets (54). Winnipeg (53-20-10) took Game One of this series on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory in a game where they scored two goals in the 3rd period to rally from a 2-1 deficit. The Jets entered that 3rd period with a 1-0 score before both teams found the back of the net two times. Expect the scoring to continue in this important game for the Wild that wants to avoid falling behind by an 0-2 deficit in this series. Winnipeg has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Jets are scoring 3.9 Goals-Per-Game at home in the Bell MTS Place this season — and they are averaging 4.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Winnipeg peppered the Wild’s goalie Devan Dubnyk with 40 shots on Wednesday. They remain undermanned with their depth at the blue-line with Toby Enstrom and Dmitry Kulikov out with injuries. The Jets have won six straight games — and this will be their fourth game on home ice. Winnipeg has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Jets have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their fourth game at home in a row.
Minnesota (45-27-11) needs to put pressure on the Jets’ goalie Connor Hellebuyck after only peppering him with 20 shots on Wednesday. The Wild should see their top line of Eric Staal, Jason Zucker and Nino Niederreiter be more aggressive tonight after they failed to generate a combined point in Game One. The trio combined for only four shots on net and just two legitimate scoring opportunities in that game. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival. The Wild have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And in their last 17 road games after a game where they allowed at least two goals in the 3rd period. Considering that Minnesota is allowing 3.5 Goals-Per-Game when on the road, they have to enter this game thinking they need to score at least three goals on Hellebuyck to win this game. Lastly, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Winnipeg. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Minnesota Wild (53) and the Winnipeg Jets (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-12-18 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-5 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Boston Bruins (12). Boston (50-20-9) is limping into the playoffs having lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss in Florida. The Bruins have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Boston has also played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least two goals. The good news for this team is that they will be healthier for the playoffs with both Rick Nash and Sean Kuraly practicing with the team this week and listed as probable to play tonight after they were out for that recent losing stretch. With a core group of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Zeno Chara, the Bruins still have the leadership team that led them to a Stanley Cup win in 2013. Expect this team to be prepared to grind out a lower scoring game in this opening salvo. Their offense is struggling as they are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Goalie Tuukka Rask has been solid this season with a 2.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .917 save percentage — but he has a very good resume in the playoffs which included raising the Cup as the starting goalie in that 2013 campaign. In 53 career starts in the playoffs, Rask has a 2.12 GAA along with a .928 save percentage. Rask also likes playing against the Maple Leafs as he enjoys a 2.14 GAA with a .925 save percentage in 25 career starts in the regular season against them. Moving forward, the Under is 18-6-3 in Boston’s last 27 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents. The Under is 33-16-6 in the Bruins’ last 55 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher, Boston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
Toronto (49-26-5) enters the playoffs having four of their last six games with their 4-2 win over Montreal. Head coach Mike Babcock perhaps got this team to overachieve last season by making the playoffs with such a young roster. Some critics have suggested this year’s team has not been as dynamic on offense when considering their great young talent led buy Auston Matthews. However, Babcock has been molding his team to be able to be comfortable playing in the harder-hitting games that typically are required to advance deep into the playoffs. The Maple Leafs have played 10 of their last 13 opening games to a new playoff series Under there Total. Toronto has also seen the Under go 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Frederik Anderson has been solid again this season with a 2.81 GAA and a .917 save percentage although those numbers are not as good as what he posted last year when he carried this team at times. But Anderson loves playing against the Bruins against whom he has a 2.09 GAA along with a .935 save percentage in eleven career starts. The veteran also has plenty of playoff experience with a 2.45 GAA and .915 save percentage in thirty-two postseason starts. The Maple Leafs have now allowed more than two goals in their last three regular season games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in three straight contests. Lastly, in their last 8 trips to Boston, Toronto has played 6 of these games Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Boston Bruins (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-11-18 |
Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Flyers (5) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (6). Philadelphia (42-26-14) enters the playoffs having won four of their last five games with their 5-0 shutout over the Rangers last Saturday. Head coach Dave Hakstol tipped his hand by starting Brian Elliott in goal for their last two games after he missed 25 games through April 3rd — so he has to be pleased with that shutout to end the regular season. Elliott only made five starts after the All-Star Break but he was outstanding with a 1.94 Goals-Against-Average and a .918 save percentage. The Flyers have a good core of young players — but after their dynamic top line featuring Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux, the scoring prowess of their forwards drops off considerably. Philadelphia has only seven players who registered at least 30 points during the regular season. Expect the Flyers to play with more caution on the road in this opening game of the playoffs. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. The Under is also 5-1-1 in Philly’s last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
Pittsburgh (47-29-6) has also won four of their last five games with their 4-0 shutout win over Ottawa last Friday. The Flyers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. These Penguins are considered to be not more than average with their blue-line — but I find those assessments undervaluing a group that helped the Penguins win the Stanley Cup for the second straight season. Pittsburgh has Kris Letang back to lead their defense after he missed all of the postseason last year with a herniated disc in his neck. But it was two years ago in the Pens’ first Cup run where Letang raised his level of play to establish that he was a top tier number one blue-liner. He is joined this year with many of the players that manned the blue-line in Brian Doumolin, Justin Schultz and Olli Maatta. I am loving that Game One of this series has a Total listed at 6 — let’s attack that number which is quite high for a playoff game. Head coach Mike Sullivan had his forwards help on defense in the playoffs last year to compensate for the absence of Letang which resulted in plenty of Unders — and I do not see him deviating from that winning formula. The Penguins were outscored this season in 5-on-5 play so I do not see Sullivan being too anxious in getting into a high scoring affair with the Flyers. Instead, Pittsburgh should be able to take advantage of their Power Play opportunities to grind out low-scoring games. The Penguins led the NHL with a Power Play Unit that converted on 26.2% of their chances. They also scored on 5 of their 13 Power Play chances in their four games against a Flyers’ team that ranked 29th in the NHL with a Power Play Kill Unit that was successful only 75.8% of the time. Pittsburgh also has a battle-tested net minder in Matt Murray who enjoys a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average with a .928 save percentage in 32 playoff games. Lastly, the Under is supported by two strong empirical situational angles. First, in games in the month of April with the Total set at 6 or higher, when the home team has won at least three of their last four games, the game finished Under the Total in 47 of these last 67 (70%) situations where these conditions applied since 1996. Second, in games involving a home team coming off a shutout win now facing a team did not allow more than one goal, these games finished Under the Total in 227 of the last 381 situations where these conditions applied since 1996. 25* NHL First Round Metropolitan Division Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Flyers (5) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-18 |
Suns v. Mavs UNDER 209 |
Top |
124-97 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Phoenix (20-61) has lost two straight games after their 117-100 loss to Golden State on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. The Suns allowed the Warriors to make 52.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last three games. Phoenix has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Suns gave played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. And in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%, Phoenix has played 14 of these games Under the Total.
Dallas (24-57) has lost three straight games with their 109-97 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. The Mavericks allows the 76ers to make 50.5% of their shots in that game which was their worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Mavericks have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas returns home where they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Mavs will be looking to avenge a 102-88 loss to the Suns in Phoenix back on January 31st — and they have played 18 of their last 28 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. Lastly, in the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Dallas, the game finished Under the Total 13 times. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-18 |
Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 210 |
Top |
106-126 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (701) and the Indiana Pacers (702). Golden State (57-21) has won three straight games with their 111-107 upset victory at Oklahoma City on Tuesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Warriors flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Thunder to just a 37.6% field goal percentage. This Golden State team is still playing without Stephen Curry but they do have their other Big Three players in Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green back healthy and on the court. The results have been lower scoring games with the team seeming to emphasize defense as they prepare for the playoffs. They have held their last five opponents to just 103.6 PPG as compared to their 107 PPG they allow for the season. The Warriors are also scoring just 105.6 PPG over those last five games which is far below the 113.9 PPG scoring average for the year. Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Warriors have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now Golden State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. They will be looking to avenge a 92-81 loss at home to the Pacers just back on March 27th — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss in the Oracle Center.
Indiana (46-32) saw their five-game winning stream snapped on Tuesday with their 107-104 loss in Denver as a 4.5-point underdog. The Pacers have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And in their last 29 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game, the Under is 21-6-1. Now this team returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Pacers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. Lastly, in their last 8 opportunities to host the Warriors, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (701) and the Indiana Pacers (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-18 |
Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
62-79 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 9 m |
Show
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At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG.
Michigan (33-7) is now ranked 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after their 69-57 win over Loyola-Chicago on Saturday. They held the Ramblers to just a 43.1% shooting mark while limiting them to making only 1 of their 10 shots from behind the arc. The Wolverines raised their level of play in January when Xavier Simpson finally earned the starting point guard job. Simpson is an outstanding defender who has stymied some of the best offensive guards in the nation — he will make things difficult for the Wildcats’ Jalen Brunson. It is defense that has gotten this Michigan team to the National Championship Game. They made only 42.4% of their shots against the Ramblers — and that was the fourth time in this NCAA Tourney in their five games where they did not shoot better than 44.7% from the field. Head coach John Beilein will try to slow the pace of this game. The Wolverines rank 324th in the nation by averaging only 64.8 possessions per game as compared to the 68.3 national average for possessions. Michigan also ranks 309th in the nation with a patient offense that averages 18.7 seconds per possession which is 1.5 seconds slower than the national average. This slower pace translates into the NCAA Tournament where the Wolverines have now played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Michigan has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Wolverines have played 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days, Michigan has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-18 |
Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 |
Top |
79-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 3 m |
Show
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At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
Villanova (34-4) reached the Final Four with their 71-59 win over Texas Tech as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. The Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just a 33.3% shooting percentage in that victory. Villanova has raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court in this Big Dance as they have held their four opponents to scoring at just a 0.99 Points-Per-Possession rate. But concerns exist for the Wildcats on the offensive end of the court after they also made only 33.3% of their shots. Jay Wright credited the Red Raiders’ scouting and schemes to stymie their 3-point offensive attack. They made only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) shots from the 3-point line — and Kansas should be replicating those schemes with a week to prepare for this contest. Villanova has covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games as the favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point as the favorite in three straight games. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-18 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 |
Top |
71-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference.
Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Finals of the CIT with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty on Wednesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames are finding their offense late in the season as the are shooting 46.6% from the field over their last five games which is a notch or so higher than their 45.2% season field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, this team has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Flames have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Illinois-Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Lastly, the Flames have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. 25* CBB CIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-18 |
Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 216 |
Top |
93-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
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At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (515) and the Los Angeles Lakers (516). Los Angeles (32-41) was eliminated from the Western Conference playoffs 112-106 loss in Detroit on Monday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Lakers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Los Angeles is a bit of M*A*S*H unit right now with their leading scoring Brandon Ingram out along with Josh Hart and now Isaiah Thomas who has is dealing with a hip injury like Ingram. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Lakers return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. LA has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Lakers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
Dallas (23-51) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 103-97 upset win at Sacramento last night as 3-point underdogs. The Mavericks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Furthermore, Dallas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after an upset win — and this includes them playing eighteen of their last twenty-six games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Mavs have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less — and the Under is a decisive 43-22-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up win. Dallas is also dealing with a host of injuries with Wesley Matthews and Jose Barrea joining Seth Curry as being unavailable for this team. The Mavericks have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and this includes them playing ten of their last fifteen games Under the Total when on the road with the over/under within this 210 to 219.5 point range. Dallas has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the Mavericks are looking to avenge a 124-102 loss to the Lakers in the Staples Center back on February 23rd. Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss — and they have played 15 of their last 222 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (515) and the Los Angeles Lakers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-18 |
Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
Penn State (24-13) has also won three straight games with their 85-80 upset win at Marquette last Tuesday. The Nittany Lions made 53.4% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last ten contests. They also allowed the Golden Eagles to make 45.9% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. Penn State has the 19th best defense in the nation when measured by Adjusted Efficiency. They will need to lean on their defense tonight considering that they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. Expect this game to be more of a defensive struggle as they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Nittany Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, Penn State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-18 |
Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
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At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (9) and the Edmonton Oilers (10). Edmonton (34-36-4) has won three straight games with their 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings last night. Goalie Cam Talbot stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced to earn the win. This was a great Under situation save for the possibility that backup goalie Al Montoya would be between the pipes tonight given that Talbot played last night. Montoya cannot be trusted with Unders. However, my sources have informed me that Montoya is unavailable this evening (and the Oilers are calling up a backup goaltender from their minor league team) — so it will be Talbot playing again tonight. Voila, we have a great situation for us now. Talbot struggled earlier in the season — and his step back this season from an outstanding 2016-17 campaign is one of the reasons why this Edmonton team will not be in the playoffs this season. But Talbot has found his form this month with a 2.19 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage. And he has a solid 2.49 GAA with a .912 save percentage when playing without rest so that is not a concern for me. The Oilers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a win by one goal or less. Edmonton has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. Over their last five games, the Oilers are allowing only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game. Edmonton stays at home where the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-2.
Anaheim (38-24-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 3-2 loss in overtime at Winnipeg. The Ducks have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Anaheim may be without their captain and top-line center in Ryan Getzlaf tonight as he is questionable with a stomach virus. That means the team will be leaning even more on goalie John Gibson who has been of fire as of late. Since the All-Star Break, Gibson has a 1.80 GAA along with a .942 save percentage with three shutouts in 17 starts. He also enjoys a 1.45 GAA in his three starts against the Oilers this season. Anaheim will be looking to avenge a 6-5 loss to Edmonton back on February 25th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least five goals. The Ducks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 37 games against fellow Western Conference foes, the Under is 26-10-1. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (9) and the Edmonton Oilers (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-18 |
Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
59-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 44 m |
Show
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At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total.
Villanova (33-4) has won eight straight games with their 90-78 win over West Virginia on Friday. The Wildcats held the Mountaineers to just a 38.6% field goal percentage in their victory. Villanova has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day of rest. The Wildcats made 23 of their 27 (85.2%) of their free throws against a West Virginia team that commits a ton of fouls as a by-product of their defensive pressure. Villanova has played 19 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throws. There were 76 possessions in that game with West Virginia which may persuade many bettors into expecting another Over with Jay Wright’s offensive juggernaut that has put up amazing shooting numbers over the years. But in Villanova’s previous ten NCAA Tournament games, the average number of possessions was 63.8 which is far below this year’s average throughout all of Division One College Basketball of 68.3. The Wildcats made 13 of their 24 (54.2%) of their 3-point shots against West Virginia but those shots may be harder to come by against this Red Raiders’ defense that holds their opponents to just a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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