01-30-21 |
Newcastle United v. Everton -1 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D3-L5) enters this match off a 1-1 draw at home against Leicester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L11) has lost five straight matches in the English Premier League with their 2-1 loss at Leeds United on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees have won five of their last eight matches in EPL play with only one loss over that span. This side has stepped on the defensive end of the pitch where they are allowing just 1.20 expected goals (xGA) in those last eight matches. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has overseen this stretch despite dealing with a host of injuries since the fall. But now his starting XI is back near full strength with his big four of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, James Rodriguez, Richarlison, and Lucas Digne all healthy again. When these four have all started together in six matches this season, Everton has scored 17 goals with a 2.8 goals-per-game average. They now host a slumping Newcastle side with a manager in Steve Bruce who is sitting on a red-hot hot seat. The Magpies are allowing 1.68 xGA this season despite playing a 4-4-2 formation which basically has eight players parking the bus in the back. Over their last four matches, Newcastle is last in expected goals allowed. The Magpies are only averaging 1.03 expected goals per match as well. Their play has particularly suffered away from St. James where they are second-to-last in expected goals differential. Newcastle has lost six of their ten matches on the road. They have the second-worst xGA away from home. And they have not scored in their last 385 minutes on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Everton should have plenty of energy having taken a two-week hiatus because of a COVID outbreak earlier this month. With two matches in hand, the Toffees can make a big run up the table. Everton will also have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Newcastle, 2-1, on November 1st. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Leicester v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W12-D2-L5) has won three matches in a row in the English Premier League with their 2-0 win against Chelsea on January 19th. Everton (W10-D2-L5) plays their first EPL match since January 12th when they defeated Wolverhampton on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City will be without their top attacker in Jamie Vardy who is out a few weeks with a hernia injury. Vardy averages 0.76 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Foxes' recent success has coincided with the return of attacking midfielder James Maddison to the pitch — but he plays better when he can complement Vardy. Manager Brendan Rodgers will continue to lean on the outstanding play of his team on defense. They held Chelsea to just 0.69 expected goals (xG) — and they have registered two straight clean sheets in the EPL. Since December 20th, Leicester City has an expected goals allowed mark that is third-best in the EPL. Getting holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi healthy again has been vital — the Foxes have not allowed an opponent to register even 1.0 xG since his return to the pitch. In their last six EPL matches, Leicester City has an xGA of 0.85. Everton will be rested for this match although they did play an FA Cup match on Sunday in a 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. But manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a group that has not been overworked. The Toffees are playing great defensively as well — they have held their last six opponents to just 1.20 xGA per match. Everton has not allowed more than one goal in eight straight EPL matches — and they have given up just five combined goals over that span. The Toffees have seen two or fewer combined goals in six of their last eight EPL contests. The offense has struggled with just 0.60 expected goals per match in their last four EPL games. They have overachieved with five goals scored from just 2.4 xG during that span. They do have forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin back after he has been out — but this remains a team that is playing more cautiously on the pitch than they were earlier in the season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 26th with a 2-0 victory. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Wednesday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-121 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Chelsea (W8-D5-L6) has suffered five losses in their last eight EPL matches with their 2-0 loss at Leicester City last Tuesday. Wolverhampton (W6-D4-L9) is winless in their last six EPL matches after their 3-2 loss at home to West Brom.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The dreary loss to the Foxes was the final straw for Chelsea management as they sacked manager, Frank Lampard. I expect an immediate bounce. Lampard was the golden boy in the organization as a player without big-time managerial experience. He seemed like a good fit when hired last year because he could help develop the younger players on the roster — an important consideration given the transfer ban last year. But once that transfer ban was lifted, the franchise brought-in a bunch of high-priced players that changed the expectations with this team. Lampard was finicky with his starting lineups and tactics on the pitch — and his perhaps stoic demeanor came across as arrogant. Players grew tired of his shtick — and he eventually lost the proverbial locker room. In comes new manager Thomas Tuchel who has immediate cache as the former manager of PSG and Borussia Dortmund. The German manager should be able to instantly connect with the struggling Timo Werner and Kai Havertz who have struggled in their transition to the EPL (and with who Lampard had no connection). Tuchel is more of a player’s manager with reports that he has already reached out to every member of the team. He is also expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Werner in the box rather than playing the wing — I love it because Werner is ultimately a poacher. The “Tuchel Bounce” is legit — his teams at Borussia Dortmund won their first 11 matches after his appointment while his PSG team won their first 14 matches once he took over. Talent is not the issue with this team — while they are in 8th place, their expected Points using the expected goals metric places them third in the EPL. The Blues have the second-best expected goals allowed mark in the league. I expect an immediate improvement with stick-in-the-mud Lampard gone. Wolverhampton is struggling with four losses in their last six matches. This group misses striker Raul Jimenez who is out with a head injury for months. The organization signed Willian Jose on loan from Real Sociedad to offer them a substitute attacker — but he has still not received his work permit. The team is also without their talented young attacking midfielder in Daniel Podence who is out with an injury. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has seemed to abandon his tight defensive formation for a more open styled to help create offense without Jimenez — but this has ruined the defensive cohesion of his team. The loss to West Brom is humiliating (as we saw yesterday in the Baggies’ 5-0 loss to Man City, Wolverhampton scoring twice should have been the canary in the coal mine to avoid that Under). The Wolves surrendered an xGA of 2.58 against toothless West Brom. Brighton registered 2.56 xG against Wolverhampton on January 2nd three EPL matches ago.
FINAL TAKE: It should be easy for Tuchel to get his team motivated to play this Wolves team that just upset Chelsea on December 12th by a 2-1 score. The Blues dominated the match in terms of expected goals — they registered 1.61 xG with Wolverhampton countering with just 0.63 xG — but the Wolves on the match in the 96th minute in a goal Neto. Revenge, Redemption — and the opportunity to Scapegoat past struggles on the departed manager — the Trinity of Motivation! 25* English Premier League Wednesday Match of the Month with Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
Manchester City v. West Bromwich Albion UNDER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W11-D5-L2) returns to English Premier League action after defeating Aston Villa last Wednesday by a 2-0 score. West Brom (W2-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have ten clean sheets this season in the EPL including three straight. Manager Pep Guardiola has reeled-in his pressing system this season which has put less pressure on his backline. The Cityzens surrendered too many Big Chances (representing an expected goal percentage of 35% or better) last season — so perhaps a tweak in tactics was needed. Not having the services of his best striker, Sergio Aguero, might have played a role as well. Aguero has returned from the leg injury that had him on the shelf — but his positive COVID test keeps him unavailable for this match. Guardiola may have also foreseen the need to not press as much given the condensed schedule given the late start to the season after needing the summer to complete the 2019-20 campaign because of the global pandemic. Legs are shot for many of these players — so asking them to engage in ambitious pressing may exacerbate the fitness problem. Man City has also made some nice additions to their defense including signing Ruben Dias. Since his arrival, the Cityzens are allowing just 0.52 expected goals (xGA) in their last ten EPL games while conceding only twice. And while their attacking numbers have improved, Man City has scored only ten goals in their eight road matches in the EPL. They had played six straight road matches where they did not score more than one goal before their 3-1 win at Chelsea on January 3rd. The Cityzens have played their last three EPL matches at home. They last played on Saturday in the FA Cup when they rallied from a 1-0 hole to overwhelm Cheltenham Town, 3-1. Unfortunately for Guardiola, he had to rely on his key players late in the match rather than resting them for this league contest. West Brom is a mess on both ends of the pitch — but they are likely to continue the defensive tactics they employed in the reverse fixture between these two sides on December 15th which ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad. The Baggies host this rematch at the Hawthornes where they have scored just five times in their nine matches. West Brom has been blanked in three straight home matches in league play as well as five of their last seven. They are last in the EPL in expected goals from their attack. They will likely get blanked again by this stout Man City defense. The issue is how many goals will the Cityzens bag?
FINAL TAKE: Man City will be without their glue in the middle of the field in Kevin DeBruyne who is out for four weeks with a hamstring injury. DeBruyne may be the best player in the world 40 yards away from the goal — he is the glue that holds this Man City attack in place. The Cityzens have Gabriel Jesus back — but the attacker is more of a poacher who thrives in reacting to the actions of players like DeBruyne. Raheem Sterling will lead the attack but his form has not been top-notch. I suspect 2-0 is more likely of a result than 4-0 (and beyond) — and we can live with a push if the result is 3-0 (or 2-1). 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
Newcastle United v. Aston Villa -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Burnley v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-21 |
Manchester United -1 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).
FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Chelsea v. Leicester |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
110 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.
FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-21 |
Newcastle United v. Arsenal -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Arsenal -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-122 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Arsenal (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D2-L8) has won three straight matches in English Premier League action with their 4-0 win at West Brom on January 2nd. Crystal Palace (W6-D4-L7) snapped a five-game winless streak in the EPL on January 2nd with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Gunners’ manager Mikel Arteta found himself firmly on the hot seat last month with this Big Six EPL power underachieving relative to the sky-high expectations for this franchise. Yet everything turned around starting with a surprise 3-1 upset victory at home in the Emirates against Chelsea on Boxing Day on December 26th. Arsenal dominated the pitch against a good Blues team. The Gunners followed that up with a solid victory against Brighton and Hove Albion before their four-goal victory against West Brom. Arsenal last played on Saturday when they advanced in the FA Cup with a quality 2-0 victory against Newcastle United — that victory gave them four-straight wins across all competitions.
|
01-04-21 |
Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D6-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last Wednesday. Southampton (W7-D5-L4) is winless in their last four matches after their 0-0 draw with West Ham United last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If this was football and I saw two teams coming off scoreless games (or uber-low scoring), I would be skeptical of taking the Under. But soccer is different — the total has fallen given market pressures in response to the recent scores. In fact, there are a lot more 3.25s out there than there were at my bedtime last night when there were 3s and 2.75s. These are two sides struggling with their form in the attack while simultaneously very deliberating playing a more cautious approach. Southampton played a nil-nil draw with Fulham in their previous match where they only generated 0.33 expected goals (xG). They did get their best striker, Danny Ings, back last week. Yet this remains a team that is averaging only 1.10 xG per match this season which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Saints were always due to see some regression from the strong scoring numbers over the summer in Project Restart. They have now not scored in three straight matches. But they are playing better defensively with two straight clean sheets. They have an expected goals allowed per game mark of 1.25 xGA. They have held their last five opponents to 1.0 or lower xG. The high press of manager Ralph Hassenhuttl is being deployed more judiciously this season. Keep Alex McCarthy is out because of COVID but his backup is Ben Forster who is a quality keeper with years of starting experience in the EPL (that knowledge is the small reward of years of playing EPL fantasy …). Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara returned for that match against Newcastle — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds had allowed 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league — and that was before holding the Magpies to just 0.79 xG. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their eleven league matches — and they have four clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those eleven league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous three matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their eight EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today against a quality side that will burn them in the counterattack.
FINAL TAKE: Klopp’s tactics usually work against Southampton. They have held the Saints to only two goals in their last eight matches with six clean sheets. Maybe Southampton scores — but I don’t see this Liverpool offense bagging more than two goals on the road. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-20 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D5-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw against West Brom on Sunday. Newcastle (W5-D3-L6) is winless in their last three matches after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara might be fit enough to return — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Even if Thiago cannot take the pitch, this game should still be a lower-scoring match. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds are allowing 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their ten league matches — and they have three clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those ten league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their seven EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today. Newcastle is third-to-last in the EPL with 1.14 expected goals (xG) per match. The Magpies will be without two of their more talented offensive players in this match with Allan Saint-Maximin and Jamaal Lascelles injured — but manager Steve Bruce should insert Callum Wilson back into the starting XI after he did not play against Man City. Newcastle does not engage in an ambitious approach on the pitch. They have scored only seven goals in their nine home matches in the EPL this season. But their defense has been solid — they are 10th in the league by allowing 1.42 expected goals allowed (xGA) per contest.
FINAL TAKE: These are also two teams that are being worked hard right now. This is Liverpool’s third match in ten days while Newcastle is playing their fourth match in ten days. The wear and tear tires out the legs with the players having just a little less energy on the pitch. This should be a lower-scoring match with a Liverpool clean sheet very possible. 25* EPL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W6-D3-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday. Man United (W8-D3-L3) settled for a 1-1 draw at Leicester City on Saturday in their most recent match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in the English Premier League since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on November 1st. That loss to the Gunners continued to expose a weakness of this Red Devils team under Gunnar Solskjaer: they tend to struggle against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. Remember, Man United did not advance out of the Group Stage of the Champions League last month because of a terrible 2-1 loss to Istanbul Basekeshir. Since that result, the Red Devils have settled for a nil-nil draw with Newcastle United while barely defeating a Sheffield United team by a 3-2 score that looks destined for relegation. The Man United defense has taken a step back from last season — they rank just 9th in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) with that mark lowering to 11th in the league in xGA when playing at home at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have also been pretty fortunate with their 30 goals this season since their expected goals (xG) projects only 24.34 goals for them. Man United is 4th in the table with 27 points — but their 22.38 expected Points (xPTS) would place them seventh. Wolverhampton has some nice recent results with that draw with the Spurs and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on December 15th. The Wolves miss Raul Jimenez as their striker — but this remains an organized team under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Wolverhampton is not quite as stout defensively as they were last season when opponents managed only 0.92 xG in non-penalty kick scoring opportunities. That number has risen to 1.10 nonPK xGA this year — but that is still a stingy number.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves thrive in the type of tactics that stymie Manchester United. This Red Devils team also has chemistry issues with Paul Pogba wanting to be released and Solskjaer continuing to sit on the hot seat given his team’s inconsistent play. A draw is very possible — and a Wolves upset is more likely than Man United winning by more than one goal. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-20 |
West Ham United v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D3-L4) has lost only once in their last six matches after their 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace last Wednesday. Chelsea (W6-D4-L3) has lost two straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-1 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has been very reliable on the attack this season even with their top striker, Michail Antonio, being out since November. The Hammers have scored at least one goal in fifteen of their last sixteen matches across all competitions. West Ham has generated at least 2.0 expected goals in two of their last three matches including a sharp 2.67 xG mark against Manchester United. This team is playing well with four wins and a draw in their last six EPL matches. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their six road matches in league play. All six of these contests have seen at least three combined goals. Chelsea is desperate for a win after losing their last two matches to fall to eighth place in the EPL table. The Blues had been unbeaten in their previous fourteen matches across all competitions. This team could put up a big number against this West Ham team that has allowed 16 goals in their thirteen matches. Chelsea is tied for third in the league with 26 goals — and their expected goals mark of 23.63 is third-best in the EPL. The Blues have scored at least one goal in nine of their last eleven games across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea scored three and four goals in their first two matches of the month against Leeds United and then Sevilla in the Champions League before their recent slump where they have scored only two goals in their last three matches. The Blues have scored two more goals in seven of their thirteen league matches. They have scored 14 goals in their six home matches at Stamford Bridge. Look for them to break out of their slump in a must-win match. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W7-D4-L1) remained unbeaten in their last eleven English Premier League matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Liverpool (W7-D4-L1) comes off a disappointing 1-1 draw at Fulham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs had registered four straight clean sheets before allowing that goal to the Eagles. Tottenham leads the EPL by allowing only 10 goals this season. Manager Jose Mourinho often keeps six players back on defense in a cautious approach that finds success because of the clinical scoring prowess of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. But the Spurs are scoring at a rate that is unsustainable relative to the pressure they are creating. They have only 18.80 expected goals (xG) versus their 24 actual goals. On the road, they have scored 14 times despite their xG of 9.88. Six of those goals came in their 6-1 barrage victory at Old Trafford against a Man United side that gave up in the second half. In their other three wins away from home, Tottenham has scored four times despite a minuscule 1.18 combined xG in those three matches. In their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, they managed only 1.21 xG. Liverpool is dealing with a number of injuries. Defensemen Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Thiago Alacantara are all injured along with defensive midfielder Joe Milner. These absences have compelled manager Jurgen Klopp to change tactics with him abandoning the high line press that was the Reds’ signature over the last two seasons which brought home a Champions League and English Premier League title. Liverpool has played more conventional while taking fewer chances of going on the attack. In their last four matches across all competitions, the Reds have conceded only two goals. Yet the Reds have not scored more than one goal in five of their last six contests. Forward Sadio Mane is out-of-form which has hurt the offensive attack. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from his injury last week, he is not at 100% with his offensive skill limited. Liverpool hosts this match at Anfield where they have won all six of their EPL matches this season while conceding just six times — and their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) is even better at 5.46 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 11th in EPL action with Liverpool eking out a 1-0 victory at Tottenham Stadium in a match after Mourinho had taken over the team. Expect another cautious, low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-20 |
Shakhtar Donetsk v. Inter Milan OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). THE SITUATION: Shakhtar Donetsk (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off their 2-0 upset win over Real Madrid in the Champions League last Tuesday. Inter Milan (W1-D2-L2) comes off a 3-2 win against Borussia Monchengladbach last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Group B remains very much in flux this afternoon with all four teams in the group still alive to take the two slots in the knockout stage Round of 16. Inter Milan begins the day in last place with 5 points. They must win this match then hope that the simultaneous Borussia Monchengladbach-Real Madrid showdown does not end in a draw. A loss would be disastrous for manager Antonio Conte since they would not even finish in third place which would qualify them for this season’s Europa League. The Nerazzurri won the Europa League last year which gave them higher aspirations for this year. They come off a 3-1 victory over Bologna in Serie A action on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku scored his 12th goal in all competitions in that match. This is a high-scoring team under Conte which does not have the defensive template that Conte deployed to win the English Premier League title with Chelsea nor his previous teams with Juventus. Inter Milan have scored at least three goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. But this club has only one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Conte’s team is getting healthy — and they get Arturo Vidal back after he was suspended for that last match with Borussia Monchengladbach after he was issued a red card in the previous Champions League match with Real Madrid. Shakhtar Donetsk comes off a 5-1 win over Minai on Saturday. They have scored 30 goals in their 12 matches in the Ukrainian top-flight league. They begin the day in second place in Group B with 7 points and owning the tie-breaker against Real Madrid who also has 7 points but lost to Shakhtar Donetsk twice. A loss would ruin their Round of 16 hopes while a draw keeps them alive only if Real Madrid does not win their match. Defense is an issue for manager Luis Castillo’s team as they have surrendered 12 goals in their five group stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the reverse fixture on October 27th. The rematch will not be scoreless — and the urgency with this contest will likely ensure plenty of goals. 25* Champions League Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-20 |
Manchester United v. RB Leipzig |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357) in Group H play in the Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W3-D0-L2) is unbeaten in three straight matches across all competitions after their 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir last Wednesday in the Champions League. Manchester United (W3-D0-L2) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Both these teams are tied with PSG in first-place in Group H. PSG is a -2.75 goal-line favorite against Istanbul Basahsehir so they are likely to be one of the two teams to advance to the knockout stage Round of 16. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 5-0 score on October 28th — so RB Leipzig needs the three points in this match that come from a victory. The Red Bulls do come off an impressive 3-3 draw on the road at Bayern Munich. RB Leipzig probably outplayed the reigning Champions League title-holders with 1.24 expected goals (xG) while holding the Bavarians to just 1.04 xG. RB Leipzig made the semifinals of the Champions League last August — this is a very good team. Across all competitions in the Bundesliga and Champions League this season, RB Leipzig has generated 1.81 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.06 xGA. Man United rebounded from their loss to PSG by defeating West Ham (playing without their best striker Mikhail Antonio) by a 3-1 score on Saturday. The Red Devils have looked vulnerable on defense as of late — their last two opponents have generated 5.83 xG. In their five Champions League matches, Man United is allowing 1.50 xG. With Fred getting issued a red card in that match with PSG, he will be suspended for this match. That means that manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have to play Paul Pogba in the midfield despite his agent calling for him to be traded last week. I don’t like the chemistry of this Red Devils team right now. Pogba seems to be a tinder box — and the team has been inconsistent for the last year under Solskjaer and his questionable tactics. All Man United needs is a draw so they may play this match cautiously. On other hand, a loss might trigger Solskjaer’s firing since that would leave the Red Devils eliminated from the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t read too much into the 5-0 score in the first meeting between these two teams. That was a close match at Old Trafford for the first 75 minutes before RB Leipzig got caught by Man United’s counter-attack late in the game as they needed to score to catch-up — and then the floodgates opened up. RB Leipzig gets to avenge that match at home in their Red Bull Arena. An outright win is very possible — with a push from a draw also possible (keeping the bet worth the risk). 25* Champions League Group Match H Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-20 |
Inter Milan v. Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W2-D2-L0) returns to Champions League action after their 4-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk last Wednesday. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 2-0 loss to Real Madrid in Champions League play last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan is desperate for the three points that a victory would accrue in this match. In last place in the “Group of Death” in the Champions League with just two points, they have a long haul to overcome both Real Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach with their 7 and 8 points respectively. Nerazzurri would need to win their last two matches and then hope Real Madrid defeats Monchengladbach in their final Group Stage match. That is not an impossible path. But manager Antonio Conte’s team faced urgency last week against Real Madrid — and they laid an egg with that lifeless 2-0 loss against a Los Blancos side missing two of their best players in Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema. Nerazzurri comes off a 3-0 win over Sassuolo on Saturday in Serie A play — but they still have been a bit of a disappointment in the Italian top-flight where they are 5 points behind AC Milan for first place. This team is not playing with the typical high-level of defense that Conte’s teams displayed in his championship runs with Chelsea and Juventus. Inter Milan has allowed 13 goals in nine Serie A matches and they have surrendered seven goals in their four Champions League contests. They will also be without Arturo Vidal in this match who was issued a red card in the 37th minute of that match last week with Real Madrid. Borussia Monchengladbach would love to settle for a draw in this match since that would likely clinch their qualification for the Round of 16 (if Shaktar Donetsk loses to Real Madrid as a +1.25 goal-line underdog today). Die Fohlen are an offensive juggernaut that has scored 18 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. They come off a 4-1 victory over Schalke 04 on Saturday in the Bundesliga — they have scored eight goals in their last two matches with seven different players finding the back of the net. Manager Marco Rose has his team comfortable playing both an aggressive ball-dominant attack as well as a counter-attacking style (which they will probably employ this afternoon against an aggressive Inter Milan).
FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach had a 2-1 late lead at Inter Milan in their reverse fixture in Group Stage play on October 21st. With Inter Milan being without Vidal and out of form, don’t be surprised if Die Fohlen pulls the outright upset — but take the +0.5 goal-line for some insurance. 25* Champions League Group B Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
Real Madrid v. Inter Milan OVER 3 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W1-D1-L1) defeated Inter Milan in the reverse fixture in Group B play of the Champions League on November 3rd with their 3-2 victory. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L1) hosts this rematch.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a crucial match for Inter Milan as they are currently in last place in their group with two points. Manager Antonio Conte’s side comes off a 4-2 victory at home against Torino in Serie A play on Sunday where they rallied from a 2-0 deficit with four straight goals. Led by Romelu Lukaku as their striker, the Nerazzurri are an offensive juggernaut who are tied for first place in the Italian top-flight league with 20 goals. But this team does not play the typical high-level defense that Conte’s teams enjoyed in championship runs at Juventus and then Chelsea. Inter Milan has surrendered 13 goals in their eight Serie A matches. In their last four matches, Nerazzuri has scored nine goals while allowing eight goals. They have seen nine combined goals scored in their three Champions League games. In their 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach, they generated a robust 3.51 expected goals. Real Madrid comes off a 1-1 draw at Villarreal on Saturday. Los Blancos have lost a step or two on defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in all competitions in their last eight matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is dealing with some critical injuries with Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, and Luka Jokic all out for this match. But this is Galactico — and while this Real Madrid team is not their best in the last decade, this remains a loaded roster of scoring talent. Additionally, don’t underestimate the negative impact of losing Ramos on their backline on the Los Blancos defense. Real Madrid has scored 16 goals in their last seven matches so they are certainly capable of scoring multiple goals even with their injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid has seen at least four combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. Los Blancos need this game as well — the urgency of the situation should push this to be a higher-scoring game. 25* Champions League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-20 |
Basaksehir v. Manchester United UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). THE SITUATION: Istanbul Basakshir (W1-D0-L2) returns to Champions League action after upsetting Manchester United at home on November 4th by a 2-1 score. Man United (W2-D0-L1) hosts this reverse fixture rematch in Group H play at home at Old Trafford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man United have developed a consistent modus operandi under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. What do their 5-0 win over RB Leipzig and their 2-1 victory over PSG in the Champions League play have in common this season? Those triumphs were against sides that play aggressive pressing attacks which allows the Red Devils to play cautiously on defense before relying on their attacking talent to shine in the counter-attack. Yet what does Man United’s 6-1 loss to Tottenham, 1-0 loss to Arsenal, and their most recent UCL match against Istanbul Basakshir have in common? Those opponents are counter-attacking sides — and the Red Devils felt compelled to be the more aggressive team on the pitch which failed. Even in their most recent match on Saturday against lowly West Brom, they only won by a 1-0 score despite the Baggies having conceded the most goals in the English Premier League and being at the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed (xGA). Solskjaer’s job is in jeopardy because he cannot find the right lineup that is successful against even mediocre defensive counter-attacking opponents. Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are struggling in the attack this season. Look for Solskjaer to insert more reliable defensive players in the midfield in this rematch with the hopes of securing a one or two-goal clean sheet victory. The Red Devils are playing consistently well on the defensive end of the pitch. Since the international break that started on October 20th, Man United is holding their opponents in all competitions to just 0.80 xGA which includes strong sides like PSG and RB Leipzig as well as Chelsea. They host this rematch at Old Trafford where they have held their last three opponents to just 0.40 non-penalty shot expected goals (XG). Istanbul Basakshir comes off a 32- loss to Besiktas in their last match on Saturday. The Owls play more aggressively when competing in their domestic Turkish league. Their two goals against Man United last month were their only goals in their three Champions League matches where they play more conservatively. They will likely park the bus once again in this match so they can take their chances on counter-attacks. They managed only 0.84 xG in their upset win over the Red Devils — and they had only a 0.77 xGA against them which suggests their ultra-conservative defensive approach was successful.
FINAL TAKE: I think Man United should get the clean sheet in this rematch — but I am not confident that they score the two goals necessary to cover the -1.75 goal-line spread. The better play is the Under given the Red Devils’ struggles with counter-attacking sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Group Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-20 |
Newcastle United v. Southampton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W3-D2-L2) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Everton last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Southampton (W4-D1-L2) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Aston Villa on the road by a 4-3 score last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle does not have much of a more scoring punch — and manager Steve Bruce’s team often takes a defensive approach. The Magpies have scored only ten goals in their seven matches — and their expected goals (xG) in those contests were only 8.83. Now they go on the road where they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match for their non-penalty kick situations. Newcastle has scored four of their goals via a penalty shot which they can not rely on moving forward. The Magpies have conceded eleven goals this season as well — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) does suggest they have been a bit unfortunate with that number dropping to 10.56 xGA. Southampton has registered a clean sheet in three of their last five matches. The Saints are an underrated defensive club under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl. Southampton has conceded twelve goals this season but their xGA drops to 8.91. They have allowed five goals in their three home matches — but their xGA is just 2.73 in those matches. The Saints will be without their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. Ings has scored five goals this season after his breakout campaign over the summer in Project Restart. They still have Che Adams upfront — but he is not a good finisher with most of his goals being from poaching from Ings’ creativity. Southampton may have to rely on James Ward-Prowse out of the midfield.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Hasenhuttl to have his team play this match close to the vest with Ings not available. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-20 |
Leicester v. Leeds United UNDER 3 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W4-D0-L2) has won three straight matches across all competition that includes their 1-0 win at Arsenal last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Leeds United (W3-D1-L2) comes off a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in their last match two Fridays ago on October 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City defeated AEK Athens on Thursday by a 2-1 score in Europa League action. They also held Arsenal to just 0.96 expected goals in that blank sheet victory. After a dominant 5-2 win at Manchester City on September 27th, the Foxes have played five straight matches across all competitions that have not seen more than three combined goals scored. This team under Brendan Rodgers has become a bit more defensively-oriented. They have allowed only one goal in their last three matches in all competitions. In the EPL, they have allowed only 8 goals but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 6.97 — and that 1.20 xGA per match mark is second-best in the league. They have allowed only four non-penalty shot Big Chances this season of scoring opportunities for their opponent with at least a 35% statistical chance of scoring. But the offense has lagged. While the Foxes have scored 13 goals, their expected goals mark (xG) drops to 8.67 which suggests they have been fortunate to see those many goals scored. Leicester City has just a 0.90 xG mark per game in non-penalty kick situations. Leeds United are tied with Leicester City by allowing just four non-penalty kick Big Chances which is the third-best mark in the EPL. They have allowed 12 goals with a 1.68 xGA mark but they have played a difficult schedule which includes Man City and Liverpool. The Whites have not seen more than three combined goals in four straight matches. Their striker, Patrick Bamford, has scored six times already — but that was based on 3.4 xG which suggests he has been pretty fortunate.
FINAL TAKE: After playing two high-scoring matches against Liverpool and Fulham, manager Marcelo Bielsa, has his team playing a bit less aggressive when it comes to when his midfielders rush to join the forwards in their counter-attack. Leeds plays a unique style that has stymied the topflight competition — most of their opponents have decided to play conservatively to counter their tactics. Leicester City will likely embrace this approach and bank on a Jamie Vardy counter-attack which was how they defeated Arsenal with his goal in the 80th minute. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W3-D1-L2) looks to get back to their winning ways after settling for a 1-1 draw to Newcastle United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (W3-D1-L2) snapped a three-match winless streak with their 2-1 win at Fulham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Crystal Palace benefited from facing the promoted Fulham side who may be the worst team in the premiership (pending their result on Monday with West Bromwich). The Eagles had the second-worst expected goals (xG) mark (excluding penalty kicks) along with the fewest shots in the box before that match last week. After managing just 0.14 expected goals three matches ago to Chelsea, they had zero shots in the box outside Wilfried Zaha’s penalty shot two matches ago against Brighton in a contest where they generated a Blutarski 0.0 xG mark in non-penalty kick scoring chances. Crystal Palace is playing very cautiously — but the problem is that they are still giving up plenty of scoring chances. The Eagles are third to last in the league by allowing their opponents to generate 1.80 xG. They have surrendered at least one goal in five straight EPL matches. Against a mediocre Fulham side, they allowed the second-most Big Chances (representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 38% success rate) all week. And while the win over Fulham was their second victory on the road this season after a surprising win at Manchester United last month, Palace was second-to-last in expected points (xPTS) in the EPL last season. Wolverhampton is unbeaten in their last three matches — and they were a few moments away from a three-game winning streak in the EPL before they surrendered a goal to Newcastle in the 89th minute last week. That was the only goal the Wolves have allowed in their last three league matches. Wolverhampton led the EPL with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.08. After a slow start this season, the Wolves have stepped up their play on defense. After allowing seven Big Chances along with 29 shots in the box in their first three matches, Wolverhampton has given up only two Big Chances in their last three matches along with just 21 combined shots in the box.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves struggled to generate scoring opportunities last week against a Newcastle side content to not control possession and simply counter-attack. Wolverhampton perhaps got too content with yet another second-half 1-0 lead after winning their last two EPL matches by 1-0 scores via a second-half goal. The Wolves should find it easier to score against this Palace defense. Let’s remember that Wolverhampton has been a top-seven team in each of the last two seasons in the EPL since its promotion three years ago. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig defeated Istanbul Basakehir last Tuesday in Champions League action. Manchester United upset Paris Saint-Germain last Tuesday by a 2-1 score in their opening match in the Champions League.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. After their surprising victory over a PSG team that lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League finals over the summer, they then played to a listless 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea in their English Premier League match on Saturday. The deeper analytics suggest they were fortunate to get the win against PSG as they generated only 1.47 expected goals (xG) but allowed 1.59 expected goals (xGA). In their draw with the Blues, they put up a meager 0.78 xG. The Red Devils have some cohesion issues right now as they incorporate some new players they acquired from the transfer window. The enigmatic Paul Pogba is sulking. Manager Gunnar Solskjaer seems over his head at times. The attacking talent is there for this team — but their backline is another matter. Man United is W2-D1-L2 in the EPL so far this season with a bad 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace and a humiliating 6-1 loss to Tottenham on their resume. They are 17th in the league in net expected points differential. They are allowing their opponents to generate 1.98 xG. Furthermore, in their last three matches at home at Old Trafford, they are producing just 1.03 xG. RB Leipzig is not only one of the best sides in the Bundesliga but they have proven themselves on the international stage by reaching the semifinals of the Champions League over the summer where they lost to PSG. They have one of the best managers in the world in Julian Nagelsmann who has ensured his team did not miss a beat this season after losing Timo Werner to a mega-contract signing with Chelsea. Die Roten Bullen followed up their victory last week in the Champions League with a 2-1 win over Hertha Berlin whee they generated 2.70 xG while holding them to just 0.78 xG. RB Leipzig has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with a 1-1 draw with at a quality Bayer Leverkusen side in the Bundesliga representing their only blemish to that run. The Red Bulls sit atop the German top-flight table. They are averaging 2.18 xG in league play so far this season — but it is perhaps their 0.76 xGA that is more impressive given the high-scoring that takes place in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Man United tends to play its best against teams that are aggressive in the attack. But generating offense from the counter-attack is also RB Leipzig’s bread-and-butter. Those are the teams that give Solskjaer’s team problems. A draw is likely — but don’t be surprised if the Red Bulls pull the upset with the better manager and far better team cohesion right now. 25* UEFA Champions League Underdog of the Month with RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Burnley OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W2-D2-L1) enters this match coming off a 3-3 draw against West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on October 18th. Burnley (W0-D1-L3) comes off a 0-0 draw at West Bromwich on October 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have established chemistry between their talent and the tactics of manager Jose Mourinho who took over midseason last year. Tottenham lead the EPL with 15 goals (even with one less match under their belts than most of the league) — and they are second in the league by averaging 2.48 expected goals per match. Harry Kane is thriving in his #10 role on the pitch as an attacking midfielder. He has scored five times already this season. But in this position, Kane has assisted on seven goals which is very much out of character for him when he was playing the #9 role higher up the pitch. Son Heung-Min is now playing that attacker role (rather than the winger role that Mourinho relegated him to during the summer’s Project Restart). Yet the Spurs remain shaky on defense. They enjoyed a 3-0 lead against the Hammers before conceding three goals in the second half to settle with the draw. They also blew a lead by conceding a late goal versus Newcastle United. Tottenham brought in a bunch of new talent in the transfer window which has impacted their cohesion — and integrating the aging Gareth Bale into the mix does not help matters. The Spurs have allowed eight goals this season — and they are allowing their opponents to register 1.48 expected goals per game. Burnley was an outstanding defensive team during the summer with a tight backline working together combining with a hot goalkeeper in Nick Pope. It has not been the same to the start of this season as the Clarets have surrendered eight goals in four matches. Burnley has allowed Newcastle score three times against them, and Leicester City score four times against them so far this season — and they conceded three goals to Manchester City in League Cup action last month. The Clarets really miss the injured Ben Mee, who anchors that backline at center back. He will not play in this match. Burnley has only scored three times this season — but they will have to play more aggressively if and when they fall behind against the Hotspurs. They were content to settle for a draw against West Brom to finally get some points this season — but this is a different challenge. The Clarets are usually more potent when playing at home at Turf Moor. Last season, Burnley scored 24 of their 42 goals at home — and 31.08 of their 49.35 expected goals (xG) came on their home pitch. The Clarets averaged 1.64 xG at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham leads the EPL in creating Big Chances (scoring chances with at least a 38% probability of scoring given historical averages). Look for the Hotspurs to take the lead, which will compel Burnley to abandon their preferred compact approach. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Leicester v. Arsenal UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L2) has lost two EPL matches in a row after their 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Arsenal (W3-D0-L2) looks to rebound from their 1-0 loss at Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited for confirmation of the Leicester City lineup that was released an hour before game time after being burned last week when we took the Foxes without realizing that their top scorer, Jamie Vardy, would miss the game with an injury. Those are always the dangers in the first week back in the English Premier League after the international break. Leicester City hoped to have Vardy in their Starting XI today — but while his active on their roster, he is starting on their bench. So, I expect Vardy to play around 30 minutes today. Without Vardy, the Foxes have struggled to score. Not only have they been shutout in two straight matches but they have managed only 0.57 expected goals (xG) per match in those two games. Even with Vardy, Leicester City was struggling to generate scoring chances so far this season — they are averaging just 0.92 xG in non-penalty shot chances. Three of their twelve goals this season have come via a penalty kick — and the league is not calling as many controversial handball penalties like they were last month. 47% of the Foxes expected goals this season have come from penalty kicks. Manager Brendan Rodgers is dealing with a host of injuries besides Vardy — most notably defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and center back Caglar Soyuncu. Rodgers has his team playing more cautiously to compensate for their absence on the pitch. Leicester City is allowing only 1.26 expected goals (xGA) this season. Arsenal is playing pretty solid defense themselves with an xGA of 1.38 this season even after playing two of the most prolific attacks in the league on the road already in Liverpool and Man City. The Gunners added defensive midfielder Thomas Partey in the transfer window from the defensive juggernaut that is Atletico Madrid. Manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing a defensive-first style with their offense coming from counter-attacks. Arsenal has managed only 39 shots on goal in their five matches for a 7.8 average per game which is third-lowest in the EPL. The Gunners are averaging only 1.28 xG per game.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal’s approach has neutralized the activity and effectiveness of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has managed only six shots all season after scoring 22 goals last season. This shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-20 |
Real Madrid v. Barcelona FC UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Barcelona (W2-D1-L1) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss to Getafe last Saturday in their last La Liga contest.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these Spanish giants limp into the first incarnation of El Clasico for the 2020-21 campaign. Real Madrid was stunned to lose to Cadiz at home last week against a newly promoted side to La Liga. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to win the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Real Madrid is struggling to score. They have scored only six goals in their last five league matches. The ever-disappointing Eden Hazard is dealing with a leg injury that has kept him off the pitch. Benzema and Toni Kroos are out of form. This problem on offense goes deeper than this season. Over their last fourteen matches, Los Blancos have eight single-goal wins with a nil-nil draw and a single-goal defeat. They have only had three victories over that span by two goals. But Zidane’s group is still playing outstanding defense. They allowed just 1.04 expected goals in their winning 2019-20 La Liga campaign — and they are close to that level so far this season with their 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They did not have their rock on their defensive backline for the midweek Champions League match in Sergio Ramos who should be fit to play in this crucial rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. The Dutch coach brings a defensive-approach to Camp Nou — the Blaugranas have an outstanding 1.03 xGA in league play so far this season. But Barca is generating only 0.90 xG in their last three matches. Lionel Messi is not in form after wanting to exit the team in the offseason. Messi has not scored in his last five matches against Real Madrid. This team was outmuscled by Getafe last weekend in a match where they struggled to find scoring opportunities — they managed a mere 0.92 xG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the match at Camp Nou last season. Real Madrid won the rematch by a 2-0 score at home later in the season — but that was another low-scoring match. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* La Liga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
Leeds United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
3-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W2-D1-L2) enters this match looking to rebound from their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton on Monday in English Premier League action. Aston Villa (W4-D0-L0) remains the only EPL team with a perfect record with their 1-0 win at Leicester City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Villans were one of the worst defensive teams in the EPL for much of last season — but manager Dean Smith made a tactical change after the March shutdown of action. When Aston Villa returned to play for Project Restart, they played less aggressively with a fourth defender in their backline. Since that time through last week, the Villans are holding their opponents to just 6.2 shots in the box per game along with only 1.2 Big Chances per game. Those are remarkable improvements when compared to the 12.2 shots per box and 3.1 Big Chances per game they allowed last season before the shutdown. Aston Villa has allowed only two goals this season — and the 3.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) from the deeper analytics is the best defensive mark in the league. The Villans have also scored 12 goals this season — but the metrics suggest they are overachieving since their expected goals (xG) mark drops to 6.79 xG. Seven of Aston Villa’s 12 goals came from their 7-2 blowout win over Liverpool which was very impressive — but the Reds also took their foot off the pedal in that embarrassing loss. In their 1-0 victory over Leicester City, they only managed 0.92 xG. The Villans have also benefited from playing a Fulham team that is perhaps the worst defensive team in the league — three of their goals come from that match. Leeds United held Wolverhampton to just 0.48 xG in their 1-0 loss to begin the week. Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his team play an aggressive style where the entire midfield joins the forwards in the times they go on the counter-attack. But after wild 4-3 matches against Liverpool and Fulham which they split, Bielsa has had his team be more cautious when embracing their counter-attack. In the Whites last three matches, only four combined goals have been scored with Leeds scoring twice and conceding twice. Two of these matches ended in a clean sheet including the Whites 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. With defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips out for this match, look for Leeds to be even more judicious for when they decide to bring the house in their counter-attacks.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa remains a defense-first side under Smith. This match should follow the recent trends for both teams to be a lower-scoring game. 25* EPL Friday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-20 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Ajax Amsterdam |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool begins its Champions League campaign coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton in English Premier League action on Saturday. Ajax comes off a 5-1 win over Heerenveen in Eredivisie action in the Dutch top-flight.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ajax is trying to rekindle the magic they had in the 2018-19 season where they made a run to the Semifinals of the Champions League where they lost to Tottenham. However, a bunch of the core talent from that team has now been poached by the bigger budget teams in Europe. Defenseman Matthijs DeLight signed with Juventus while Hakim Ziyech and Donny Van de Beek recently signed with Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a side that took a big step back last season in Champions League play where they failed to qualify for the last 16 knockout stage. They were W3-D1-L2 in group stage play with their 10 points just one shy of the qualifying second-place slot. But what was more troubling in Champions League play was their -6.5 net goal differential in expected goals where they overachieved on both ends of the pitch. Ajax scored 12 goals despite an expected goals (xG) mark of just 7.8. They also only allowed 6 goals despite their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 14.3. This season, Ajax has won four of their five matches in the Eredivisie national league — but that is not considered one of the top-tier professional leagues in Europe. Liverpool comes off a 2-2 draw against what has now become a loaded Everton team. They won the expected goals battle by a 2.85-1.35 xG mark. That effort erased any concerns I had about their surprising 7-2 loss to Aston Villa in EPL play. A number of the elite teams in the EPL have started slowly. I am writing these efforts off to the unique season where the players did not enjoy a traditional offseason given the summer Project Restart. The Reds are still loaded with talent. They did suffer two big injuries against Everton with both Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara out for this match. Thiago was a very nice offseason acquisition who was playing in his first match with his new club on Saturday — so his loss is not a big subtraction. The loss of Van Dijk is more significant as he will likely miss the rest of the season with his torn ACL. Not having Van Dijk will not impact the Liverpool attack as much since it has right-back Andre Robertson who has become their primary attacker who advances from the backline to assist Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. Van Dijk will be replaced by either Fabinho or Naby Keito who is back in training from his injury. The Reds will be fine. They won the Champions League in 2019 against the Spurs team that defeated Ajax in the Semifinals. They won the EPL last season. And they need to get back to their winning ways after a slow start to their EPL campaign.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches versus Ajax who have only one win in their last six matches from teams from England. Ajax hosts this match (without fans) in their Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam — but they have only won once in their last seven opportunities to host an English professional team. Ajax is rebuilding with some nice young talent — but their inexperience against elite sides will do them this afternoon. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W2-D0-L2) returns to the pitch after the international break looking to build off their 1-0 win over Fulham on October 4th. Leeds United (W2-D1-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have started slow this season with two losses to Man City and West Ham. The early season for this team has been hit-or-miss as they also manage the Europa League campaign with a roster that does not have the same depth as the power franchises in the English Premier League. But this remains the same team that has finished 7th in the EPL in each of the last two seasons since being promoted from the Championship League. They have one of the best managers in Espirito Nuno Santo — and they are acquiring more and more top-end talent to bolster their solid core group of players. There have been some transition issues with the change of roster over the transfer window. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the EPL last season with an expected goal allowed mark of 1.08. Their counter-attacking system matches up quite well with the uber-aggressive counter-attack of this Leeds team from their outstanding manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites will send their entire midfield along with their forwards when they initiate their counter-attack. This gives Leeds the best-of-both-worlds approach where they will park the bus for much of the match before becoming hyper-aggressive when they get the opportunity to attack. Their exciting 4-3 loss to Liverpool that opened the season displayed how wild their matches can become. But the Wolves are not the pressing-styled team from which Bielsa’s approach was designed to exploit. Nuno will not deviate from their defensive-shape — and they lead the EPL so far this season in expected goals coming from fast breaks. Leeds is allowing their opponents to post a 2.05 expected goals mark which is third-worst in the league. They are also getting beat by a 0.67 expected goals differential per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Leeds may be without their captain Liam Cooper who is a doubt with a groin injury. Coming off the international break, I expect the Wolves to start playing better. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Aston Villa v. Leicester -0.25 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L1) returns to action after their 3-0 loss at home to West Ham back on October 4th in their last EPL match. Aston Villa (W3-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after their 7-2 upset victory over Liverpool on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes had been riding high winning their first three matches in the new EPL season after a dominant 5-2 statement win at Manchester City. They were perhaps due for an emotional letdown against the Hammers last week. The Foxes also maintained their back-five formation from their win over Man City against West Ham which is puzzling since that is a good counter to a pressing team like the Cityzens but less strategic against a similar counter-attacking team like the Hammers. Look for Leicester City to return to their typical 4-1-4 formation. Even after getting shutout in their last EPL match before the international break, the Foxes still entered this match week tied for the lead in the league with 12 goals. They are dealing with some injuries with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi most concerning to me — but they also upset Man City undermanned including not having Ndidi to patrol their defensive midfield. Leicester City remains a clear top-half of the table team who should compete to qualify for the Champions League after narrowly missing in the summer with their fifth-place final result after Project Restart. Aston Villa has been the surprise of the league with their perfect 3-0 start which was culminated with their shocking victory over the reigning EPL champs. It was just less than three months ago that they avoided relegation on the last day of the EPL campaign. The Villans are playing better as they are unbeaten in their last seven matches. And they have made some nice additions in the transfer window. Yet, let’s keep perspective. Three of their goals against Liverpool came via a deflection. They opened the season with a victory over a rebuilding Sheffield United side who were playing with ten men most of that match — yet Aston Villa managed just a 1.04 expected goals mark in that match. The Villans then defeated a Fulham team that looks likely to be the doormats of the league. Aston Villa has scored 11 goals but their expected goals drop to just 5.91.
FINAL TAKE: The Villans may be in second place entering the week but the expected points metric (xPTS) places them just 10th in the league. This will be just their second road match of the season after defeating Fulham away from home — and they were second to last season in expected goal differential on the road. They are likely to experience a rude awakening against an angry Leicester City side. 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-20 |
Burnley v. Newcastle United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W0-D0-L2) is looking for their first victory of the season after losing last Saturday at home to Southampton by a 1-0 score. Newcastle (W1-D1-L1) pulled out a 1-1 draw at Tottenham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Newcastle was very fortunate to get the one point from the Spurs last week. A controversial VAR handball call awarded the Magpies a penalty kick in extra time which Callum Wilson converted to earn the draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals (xG) metric in that match with a 3.49 xG mark as compared to Newcastle’s 1.07 xG. The Magpies had a rough -20 net goal differential for the 2019-20 season — and they were 2nd to last in net xG differential with a -30.54 mark. They opened the season with a 2-0 victory over a struggling West Ham side — but they have played well in their last two games against Brighton and the Spurs. In these last two matches, Newcastle has generated just 0.70 non-penalty kick xG while allowing those two opponents to generate 4.31 non-penalty kick xG. The only shot that the Magpies have managed on target in their last two matches was that Wilson penalty kick in the waning moments of that match with Tottenham. After three games in league play, Newcastle is averaging only 1.06 xG. This team is riddled with injuries right now which is not a good development for mid-table teams that cannot afford to purchase roster depth. The Magpies return home to St. James where they have lost their last three matches in EPL action. Burnley lost a tough one to a likely top-ten team in the Saints last week — but they did hold them to just 0.55 xG. In their opening match against another top-ten (top-five?) side in Leicester City, they lost by a 4-2 score but won the expected goals battle by a 1.43-1.33 xG mark. The Clarets lost only two of their last sixteen EPL matches to close out 2019-20 — and they were W2-D5-L1 against top-ten opponents. For comparison's sake, their net xG differential was just -4.5 last season. Manager Sean Dyche gets the most of his talent at Burnley while playing a very disciplined and compact system. They have only allowed two Big Chances all season despite allowing five goals overall — a few were scored in freakish ways. This team has also been hit hard by injuries — but they do get starting defenseman James Tarkowski to anchor the backline again. The Clarets are also reliable when playing on the road where they are W3-D1-L1 in their last five EPL matches. Burnley generated 26 points away from home last season which was more than Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester City accrued.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley won one match and settled for a draw in their other encounter with Newcastle in league play last year. The Clarets need a win to jump up the table — and this is a golden opportunity. Burnley under Dyche is very consistent. A draw is likely the worst-case scenario — but I consider the Clarets the better team and they are playing on the road in an empty stadium. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-20 |
Leicester v. Manchester City OVER 3.25 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-20 |
Chelsea v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.
FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 3.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-20 |
Atletico Madrid -0.25 v. Lokomotive Leipzig |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-20 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Atalanta OVER 3 |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Chelsea v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.25 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Everton |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Valencia v. Sevilla -0.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W18-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches after settling for a nil-nil draw on the road at Real Sociedad on Thursday. Valencia (W14-D11-L12) has won two of their last three matches with their 1-0 victory over Espanyol on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla’s strong play over the second half of the season has been validated by the deeper metrics as they have generated 1.61 expected goals (xG) over their last fourteen matches with just 1.13 expected goals allowed (xGA) over that span for a strong +0.48 expected goal differential (xGD). They had won their previous four matches before settling for the draw with a Real Sociedad still fighting to ensure they qualify for next fall’s Europa League. Los Nervionenses still have things to play for this season. While being cemented in at least 4th place in the La Liga table ensures they qualify for next year’s Champions League, passing Atletico Madrid for 3rd place not only would be a feather in their cap but also affords them to bypass the initial qualifying match hurdle that 4th place teams must take. Sevilla needs a win with a loss in Atletico Madrid’s match with Real Sociedad (which is a possibility) to seize 3rd place. Los Nervionenses also have the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League showdown with Roma coming up next month so manager Julen Lopetegui will want to keep his group in form. Sevilla have won five of their ten league matches in the return while only surrendering five goals over that span. While the Andalusians were held scoreless on Thursday, they had scored in 27 of their previous 28 La Liga matches. They have also registered a clean sheet in ten of their last twelve league games. They return home to Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches while winning their last two contests. They have allowed just 14 goals in their 18 home games in league play with these opponents generating a meager 0.89 xG. Sevilla also tends to feast on the lesser teams in La Liga when playing at home: they are W9-D5-L1 in their last fifteen home games against teams below them on the table while scoring 24 goals and conceding just 12 times. Valencia has won two of their last three matches since manager Albert Celades was sacked after losing control of the locker room since the return to play. Voro returned as a caretaker for this team for the third time in his managerial career to offer some renewed stability (despite him being the team’s third manager this season — but this has been an organization rife with drama with players bickering with each other and the owner’s daughter taking to social media to chastise their fans. Defections have not helped matters for this team that competed in the Champions League earlier in the season. Top center back Ezequiel Garay left the team with an expiring contract this summer and forward Rodrigo is out the season with an injury. Knocks also have Voro resorting to a third-stringer at left-back in his starting XI today. Valencia defeated Espanyol on Thursday despite losing the expected goals battle by a 1.53 to 1.20 mark to the already relegated last-place team in the league. Los Che has now lost the xG duel in eight of their last ten matches since the return which suggests they have been fortunate to of W3-D2-L5 over that span. They go back on the road where they have lost eleven times this season while losing eight of their last ten matches while going winless over the span. Valencia has allowed their opponents to generate 17.72 xG in those last ten road games while producing just 4.96 xG in those matches. For the season, Los Che averages 0.95 xG along with a 1.90 xGA on the road in La Liga with that -0.95 xGD mark being bottom-five in the league. Valencia has been shutout in four of their last five games on the road — and they have scored just five times in their last seven matches overall.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla did rest their key starters in the first half at Real Sociedad on Thursday which helps explain why they did not score. Those rested starters should be on the pitch for this final league match. Valencia is still technically alive to qualify for the Europa League but they need a victory and then plenty of help to pull off that feat. Frankly avoiding rebellion and complete implosion was the immediate goal for Voro when he took over. Getting a result on the road against a quality and professional team like Sevilla is quite another. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea comes off a 1-0 win at home over Norwich City on Tuesday. While the Blues scored just one goal against the already-relegated Canaries (who were parking the bus in that match — they had only two shots in the entire match), the deeper metrics suggest that they were unfortunate with their expected goals mark of 2.77 xG. With the return to health of Christian Pulisic, Chelsea has been transformed into a potent scoring team that is energized when the 20-year old American is on the pitch. He has formed a nice combination with fellow midfielder Willian along with their veteran forward Olivier Giroud. The Blues have scored 13 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart — and they are averaging a robust 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. And while Man United has allowed only six goals in the twelve league matches they have played since Fernandes joined the team, their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that span double to a 12.45 mark. The Red Devils’ defense is not quite as good as the numbers indicate (thirteen clean sheets in their last nineteen games across all competitions). The only two teams they have played since the restart ranked in the top-ten in the EPL in scoring have been Tottenham and Southampton and both have scored against them. They are also undermanned on defense for this match with Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams both dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times this season with both EPL matches along with an English League Cup match in October — and Man United scored eight goals in those three matches. While I do not expect the Blues’ defense to play much better in this fourth contest, they should score more goals with Pulisic integrated into the offense. In their only match in 2020 back in February, Chelsea peppered the Red Devils with 17 shots and a 1.36 xG mark despite being failing to score in that contest. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Southampton +0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D7-L6) is unbeaten in their last five matches after they eked out a 1-1 draw at home versus Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L21) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they lost at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is the surprising favorite in this match for two reasons. First, the Cherries are desperate for the win since they need those three points in their chase to catch Watford for 17th place in the EPL table to avoid relegation. While Bournemouth may be motivated, their sense of urgency does not replace talent or cohesion on the pitch. The Cherries have been in the danger zone of being relegated since Project Restart — yet this motivation did not inspire quality efforts in a 4-1 loss at home to Newcastle United nor a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace in the last month. On paper, their narrow loss to the previous two-time defending champions in Man City along with a 4-1 win against a Leicester City side who begin this match week 37 tied with Manchester United for 4th place in the table along with a 0-0 draw against a traditional Big Six opponent at Tottenham gives the appearance that manager Eddie Howe has found some answers late in the season. Well, let’s talk about those results. That nil-nil draw with the Spurs was a disgusting display on both sides particularly for a Tottenham group that failed to register even one big chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. The Spurs were tired playing their third game in six days — and they were lackadaisical against a Cherries team that had the worst statistical defense in the league since the return at that time while allowing nine combined goals in their previous two matches. Leicester City then dominated them in the first half of their next match — before apparently getting high on their own supply at halftime as they came out sloppy and listless. A terrible error by goaltender Kasper Schmeichel allowed Junior Stanislas to tie the match on a penalty kick — and then Dominic Solanke scored just a minute later after a lack of focus defensive error. The Foxes’ Caglar Soyuncu then kicked Solanke in frustration after scoring that goal which earned him a red card while giving Bournemouth an 11-versus-10 advantage on the pitch from which they scored those final two goals. The NBC-Sports Network pundits wished to credit Howe for inspiring his team for the rally — but I think all credit/blame goes to Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers for letting his team return to the field with such a lack of intensity. The Cherries then faced a Man City team that did not start Kevin DeBruyne (who got the entire match off), Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Aymeric LaPorte to rest them for their upcoming FA Cup Semifinals match on Saturday. The Cityzens still raced to a 2-0 lead in the first 39 minutes of that match before hitting cruise control. David Brooks scored a late goal in the 88th minute to make the final score appear closer than it felt. So, let bettors think those results represent a late resurgence. This remains a team that has only generated 15 points in the league since November. Bournemouth has lost eighteen of their last twenty-five matches — and they won only one of their last eleven matches while getting outscored by a 24 to 12 margin and losing eight those contests. The Cherries have been an aggressive team playing with a frenetic pace under Howe’s tenure — but forward Joshua King has been lost since the return to play while his partner up top in Callum Wilson has been so ineffective that he did not start on Wednesday. With these two struggling, Howe has not had a “Plan B” for his team. And the defense that has always been the weakness for this team has been dreadful. The Cherries have allowed 38 goals in their last nineteen matches with just one clean sheet in that embarrassing display by the Spurs. They have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Furthermore, to make matters even worse, their defender in center back Nathan Ake, is out for this match (and likely the season) with an injury. Southampton is W3-D3-L1 in project restart which places them tied with Everton in 11th place. Using the expected goals metric, the Saints rise to 8th place in expected points (xPTS). This is a quality team that has found themselves after an embarrassing 9-0 loss at home to Leicester City. Hassenhuttl stuck to his guns regarding an aggressive high-press — and a move from a back-four to a back-three defensive alignment after the international break in the winter triggered a W7-D2-L3 run. Southampton upset Man City on July 5th and they have upset both 3rd place Chelsea and 4th place Leicester City on the road. The Saints have played much better away from their home at Saint Mary’s as their 28 points on the road are tied for the 4th most — and the metrics indicate this is not a fluke since their xPTS rise to a 29.40 mark. Southampton has won the expected goals (xG) battle in their four matches on the road since the restart with a W2-D2-L0 mark where they outscored their home hosts by a 9-4 margin. Over their last ten road games, they are W6-D2-L2 with nineteen goals and just thirteen goals allowed. Additionally, they are W7-D2-L2 in their last eleven road matches against non-Big Six opponents while scoring twenty goals and allowing just ten goals. If there has been a weakness with this team, it has been on defense — but they have allowed only seven goals in their matches in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: The metrics scream Southampton in this match. At this point in the season, the concern with backing the Saints regards to their possible lack of motivation in this match since they are stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but eliminated from Europa League qualification. Yet I see several reasons why I expect the Saints to be locked-in for this match. First, they are building momentum for next fall under Hasenhuttl who signed to a four-year extension before the return to play this spring. Second, the team would love to help Danny Ings earn a Golden Boot which remains an outside possibility with his 20 goals which is second best but three behind Jamie Vardy. Third, Southampton is playing with revenge on their mind after a 3-1 loss at home to the Cherries in the reverse fixture back on September 20th. Fourth, the Saints would relish the chance to send their south coast English rivals back to the Championship League with a victory. Bournemouth cannot settle for the one point with a draw with just one more game left for the 2019-20 season. Don’t be surprised if Southampton steals a victory late with Ings scoring in a counter-attack (but take the Saints plus the goal-line for some very valuable insurance). But a Cherries loss would be devastating to their ambition to avoid relegation — and Southampton would be very happy to deliver that blow. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Year with Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-20 |
Manchester City -1.5 v. Arsenal |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester City reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 2-0 victory at Newcastle United. Arsenal joined them that day in the FA Cup Semifinals when they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Some bettors may be tempted to think that Arsenal will be dangerous underdogs in this contest after they upset English Premier League champions, Liverpool, on Wednesday by a 2-1 score also on their home pitch. The eye test and the deeper analytics of that match tell a different story. Liverpool played sloppy with a pair of defensive mistakes (including a rare error by superstar center back Virgil Van Dijk who might have made his first mistake all season) which allowed the Gunners their two goals. Arsenal managed only three shots in that match which was their lowest number in an EPL match since Opta starting tracking that statistic in 1992. They managed just 0.78 expected goals (xG) in that contest while allowing Liverpool to generate 2.51 xG — so they were very fortunate to pull that upset. Those metrics were eerily close to their previous EPL match against Tottenham where they lost by a 2-1 score while losing the xG battle by a 2.05-0.72 xG mark — and that is not a very good Spurs team right now. First-year manager Mikel Arteta has shifted the tactics of his team since taking over in December to have them play a defensive-oriented pragmatic attack which is the style of play many smaller teams embrace. Arteta needed to do this because Arsenal lacks quality talent in their backline defense. These cosmetic changes have helped as the Gunners have allowed just ten goals in their nine games since Project Restart. But these tactics have derailed their offensive attack. They are averaging a mere 9.3 shots per match in the EPL in their eight matches since the return which is the 5th lowest in the league. They are also generating only 0.9 big chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate per match — and their xG in their last eight EPL matches is 1.13. Arsenal is 9th in the EPL with 53 points yet the expected goals metric projects that mark should be just 43.34 based on expected points (xPTS). The Gunners are also overachieving at home at Emirates Stadium where their 33 points from a W9-D6-L3 mark in league play is tempered by just 24.15 xPTS which is 8th worst in the EPL. Man City is W6-D0-L2 in their eight EPL matches since the return with the highest xPTS mark over that span. They come off a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday which may look listless at first glance — but keep in mind that manager Pep Guardiola rested his key players in that match. Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, and Eric Garcia did not start this match while lynchpins Kevin DeBruyne and Aymeric LaPorte did not play at all to rest and prepare for this contest. Man City is disappointed to not pull off a three-peat with EPL titles — but they can still achieve a historic season by retaining their FA Cup national title before winning the European Championship League which is a feat they have not accomplished under Guardiola’s stewardship. And while they have “only” 75 points in the EPL this season, the xPTS raise that mark to 80.98 which is higher than even Liverpool’s xPTS. The Cityzens have missed LaPorte anchoring their defense as he has spent much of the year injured. But since his return, Man City has shutout eight of their last thirteen opponents — and this includes six clean sheets in their nine contests in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: Man City has dominated Arsenal as of late — they have won the last seven encounters between these two teams with all of these victories by more than one goal. The Cityzens have scored at least three goals in six of those contests — and they have five clean sheets against the Gunners in those games. Overall, Man City has outscored Arsenal by a whopping 20-2 margin in these last seven battles. Man City won both EPL matches between these two teams by 3-0 scores with the last encounter being on June 17th where they also won the xG battle by a dominant 2.92-0.28 margin. A rested Man City should expose the suspect Arsenal defense who allowed their last two Big Six opponents in Liverpool and Tottenham to average 2.0 expected goals. 25* FA Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-20 |
Watford v. West Ham United |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W9-D7-L9) looks to build off their 4-0 win at Norwich City last Saturday. Watford (W8-D10-L17) has won their last two matches after their 2-1 win at home over Newcastle United.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers are in good form right now — they are W2-D1-L1 in their last four contests while scoring nine goals and allowing just five goals. West Ham has scored at least two goals in three of their last four contests. The improvement can be attributed to manager David Moyes moving Michail Antonio up to forward as the primary attacker — and he has gelled with forward Jarrod Bowen on the wing who has been featured since he was acquired from Hull City in the winter transfer period. Antonio scored all four goals against the Canaries last week in that 4-0 victory! Over these last four matches, the Hammers have averaged a robust 2.71 expected goals (xG) while winning the expected goals battle in all four contests. West Ham returns home to London Stadium where they have underachieved this season — but they did defeat Chelsea at home back on July 1st by a 3-2 score. Watford’s last two victories have both been at home — but not they go back on the road where they have won just one time in their last nine matches. The Hornets have been shutout in their last four games away from home. For the season, Watford is generating just 1.02 xG in their seventeen road games while allowing 1.76 xG per contest. In their last six road games, the Hornets have managed just 4.74 xG in those games while conceding 9.29 expected goals allowed (xGA) combined in those contests. West Ham is going to score in this match as Watford has earned just one clean sheet in their twelve games. Ismail Sarr was playing great for manager Nigel Pearson when this team went on a nice run in the winter but the transfer who signed for a club-record has been listless and ineffective in Project Restart with just one shot in his last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are tied in 16th place with 34 points which is three points clear of relegation. A victory likely ensures the winner returns to the English Premier League in the fall. West Ham won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 score back on August 24th. The Hammers are in better form — and Watford has struggled when playing away from Vicarage Road. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-20 |
Real Madrid v. Granada UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-56.5 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W24-D8-L3) has won all eight of their matches since the restart after they defeated Alaves by a 2-0 score on Friday. Granada (W14-D8-L13) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they defeated Real Sociedad on the road last Friday by a 3-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid may be the best defensive squad in Europe. They have registered five straight clean sheets since blanking Alaves on Friday — and they did that despite allowing their guests to register 1.20 expected goals (xG) which were their highest expected goals allowed (xGA) since the restart. Los Blancos were playing without their rock in the middle of their defensive line in Sergio Ramos for that contest but he should be back on the pitch after getting that match off to rest. Real Madrid has allowed only two goals in these last eight matches — and their 0.62 xGA per match is best in the league over that span. Los Blancos have held six of these last eight opponents to below a 1.0 xG mark. But scoring can be an issue for this team. Five of their fifteen goals since the return have been from Ramos which does speak to his greatness — but it is not a great sign when a defenseman is scoring 33% of your goals. Only the brilliant Karim Benzema is averaging at least 0.40 xG per 90 minutes of the Real Madrid attacking players since the return to play. Yet manager Zinedine Zidane is content to continue to play pragmatically and grind out lower-scoring matches. Their last five matches have seen two victories by 2-0 scores with three wins by narrow 1-0 margins. This is probably the formula for success that Zidane foresees for next month’s Championship League campaign with juggernaut offensive units like Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and PSG among the main challenges (and they need to rally against the Cityzens in the second leg of that Round of Sixteen showdown). Real Madrid goes back on the road where they have scored only five goals in their last five matches. Granada is a defensive-minded team that may very well play with five defenders in their back-line for this showdown. El Grana was very fortunate to score three goals on Friday on just four shots on target — their xG was a meager 0.61 in that match. Granada has scored only twelve goals in their eight matches since the return — but they have held those eight opponents to just ten goals. They expected goals metrics indicate those numbers are indicative of El Grana’s play on both ends of the pitch as they have averaged 1.33 xG along with 1.23 xGA in those contests. They host this match at Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium where they have scored only 21 times in their seventeen home matches. But they have surrendered just 14 goals in those seventeen games which are good for a 0.82 goals-per-game allowed average — and their xGA of 1.01 in those contests is also outstanding. Furthermore, in their seven matches against teams in the top half of the league standings, they have a low 7.81 xGA mark which makes their 9.0 xG in those seven games quite competitive.
FINAL TAKE: Granada has become a very tough “out” at home with a 2-0 upset victory over Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on their resume this season. El Grana has much to play for now besides being in the role of spoiler as they are just three points out of 6th place beginning the day. Real Madrid needs two victories in their last three contests to clinch the league title — but things could get nervy for this squad playing on the road against a feisty defensive side. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-20 |
Southampton v. Manchester United OVER 3 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D5-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Everton on Thursday. Manchester United (W16-D10-L8) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Aston Villa on the road last Thursday by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester United as an offensive juggernaut right now having scored fourteen goals over their last four matches. The winter transfer addition of Bruno Fernandes has done wonders for this team to stabilize their midfield — and getting healthy again with the three-months of stoppage of play allowed both Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba to return to the pitch to make this Red Devils attack explode. Anthony Martial is a feisty forward who is benefitting from the presence of Rashford, Fernandes, and Pogba while 18-year old Mason Greenwood is suddenly thriving as another attacker with this embarrassment of riches for manager Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United has been a streaky team under Solskjaer who has been under fire — but he has been smart enough to not rock the boat with a good thing going so I do not expect lineup changes for this match (perhaps midweek). The Red Devils have scored seventeen goals in their six matches across all competitions since the return to play. They return home to Old Trafford where they have scored 37 goals in their seventeen league matches. They are also averaging a healthy 1.97 expected goals in those contests — and keep in mind that these seasonal numbers include playing half the season without Fernandes while dealing with the off-and-on injuries to Rashford and Pogba’s almost season-long absence. In their last four home games in league contests, the Red Devils have scored 13 times. And while Man United’s defense has been strong since the return, there have been some cracks in that armor. They surrendered two goals to a struggling Bournemouth side with that expected goals allowed (xGA) number being 1.97 xGA. They have allowed 24 goals in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides this season while conceding 11 goals in their twelve home matches against these clubs — so I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet in this match. Southampton has scored eight goals in their five matches since the return with attacker Danny Ings supplying five of those goals. Inge has 19 goals on the season to find himself in the Golden Boot race for most goals scored in the EPL this season. The Saints should have seen at least another goal in that match at Everton with their xG of 2.30 in that contest. Under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, the team plays an aggressive high press which creates more scoring opportunities while leaving them vulnerable in the back. This team is not going to park the bus — besides, they would love to feed Ings more scoring chances to help his Golden Boot chances. Hasenhuttl is convinced this approach is what is best for his team — and they did just upset Man City by a 1-0 score. But while they produced the clean sheet against the two-time defending champions, they were quite fortunate with that result considering that they gave up an xGA of 3.53 in that contests. Now they go back on the road where they have scored seven times in their last three matches. The Saints are one of the better teams on the road in the league (one of the reasons why I am passing on the side play in this match) with 55% of their total expected goals this season taking place away from home. Their 1.58 xG on the road is 5th best in the league. And they also have upset wins at Chelsea and Leicester City on the road this season.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton has allowed just four goals since the restart — but their xGA for those five games jumps to 8.41. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw way back in the idyll days of late August 2019 at St. Mary’s — but the Saints have allowed 2.0 goals-per-game in their five road matches against a Big Six side with sixteen combined goals scored in those games. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-20 |
Manchester City v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W22-D3-L9) looks to build off a 5-0 win over Newcastle United on Wednesday. Brighton (W8-D12-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City peppered the Magpies with 23 shots with nine of them on target. The Cityzens have scored 18 goals in their six EPL matches in Project Restart — and they have scored 20 goals in their last seven contests overall since the return including their 2-0 victory over that Newcastle team in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Man City is averaging 2.60 expected goals (xG) this season which is their highest mark in the last five seasons. We are not sure who will get the start in this match with manager Pep Guardiola keeping an eye towards the FA Cup Semifinals versus Arsenal along with the second-leg of their Round of Sixteen Champions League match with Real Madrid. But Guardiola has an abundance of riches to choose from given the depth of the winner of the last two EPL seasons. Raheem Sterling should be in the starting XI after not starting against the Magpies. And even if mainstays like Kevin DuBruyne do not get the start this afternoon, there is a good chance he will play for at least 20 minutes in this match to maintain his fitness. Man City has scored 69 goals in their last 24 matches against non-Big Six sides — and they have 31 goals in their twelve road matches against non-Big Six opponents. But the Cityzens’ have been leaky on defense this season especially playing on the road where they have allowed 22 goals in seventeen games away from the Etihad. Brighton had entered last week’s match with the newly crowned EPL champions having played pretty stingy defense — but they allowed Liverpool to attempt 20 shots with eight of them on target. The Reds generated 2.68 expected goals (xG) in that match. But manager Graham Potter can take comfort in their ability to generate 2.88 xG against the stout Liverpool defense in that match. The Seagulls have allowed 22 goals this season in their last eleven matches against Power Six sides. They have played Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal in their last three home matches which have seen 10 combined goals scored in those contests including allowing three goals each to the Reds and Red Devils.
FINAL TAKE: Man City dominated the reverse fixture between these two teams with a 4-0 win on August 31st. The Cityzens have seen 3.60 combined xG in their matches this season with that mark rising to a combined 3.85 xG in their last five contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-20 |
Liverpool v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W29-D2-L2) enters this match as champions of the 2019-20 Premier League coming off a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Sunday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W8-D12-L13) look to build off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool was fortunate to score against the Villans in what was a listless performance that remained scoreless after the 70th minute before they scored two late goals. The Reds registered a small 0.82 expected goal mark (xG) against the suspect Aston Villa defense in that match. Liverpool have scored just six times in their four matches since Project Restart. Mo Salah has registered just one Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate since the return of play. He may not even get the start this afternoon with manager Jurgen Klopp likely to rotate out some of his key players. Roberto Firminho did not start on Sunday so while he is likely to take the pitch again for this match, it is likely that either Salah or Sadio Mane will get the afternoon off with a higher-profile match against Arsenal on deck next week. The Reds lose some of their offensive cohesion when their big three are not together on the pitch. Klopp looks likely to also rest defenseman Andrew Robertson who is an important cog in their offensive attack. Liverpool has struggled to score goals when playing away from Anfield. They have failed to score in their last five road games across all competitions spanning an incredible seven hours and 42 minutes. But the Reds’ defense remains consistent — they have allowed only 13 goals in their sixteen road games in the EPL. Furthermore, Liverpool has only allowed 13 goals in their twenty-five league games against non-Big Six sides — and they have surrendered just 7 goals in their twelve road games against non-Big Six opponents. Brighton has scored only three goals in their four matches since the return to action while averaging just 0.85 xG. But the defensive play for manager Graham Potter’s side has been outstanding as they have allowed just four goals in these four matches while holding these foes to just 0.75 xGA. The Seagulls have allowed just one Big Chance in their four matches since the return which includes facing some formidable offensive clubs in Manchester United, Arsenal, and Leicester City. They have three clean sheets in their last five matches. Unfortunately for Potter, they have also been shutout in four of their last eight matches. They return home where they have scored only 19 goals — but they have surrendered just 19 goals. Furthermore, in their four opportunities to host a Big Six side, the Seagulls have scored just 6 goals while allowing only 5 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 30th. The Reds have not scored more than two goals when playing on the road in their last six road games going back to December 26th. Brighton has seen seven of their last eight home matches go Under 2.5. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-20 |
Everton +0.5 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.
FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Villarreal +0.75 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-20 |
Manchester City v. Southampton OVER 3 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an 1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
Watford v. Chelsea -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
Bayern Munich -1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-20 |
Mallorca v. Atletico Madrid UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
14 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). THE SITUATION: Mallorca (W8-D5-L20) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 5-1 victory over Celta de Vigo. Atletico Madrid (W15-D14-L4) remained unbeaten in their last thirteen matches across all competitions with their 2-2 draw at Barcelona last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was an offensive explosion for Mallorca with the last-place team in La Liga breaking a three-game losing streak with those five goals. They had scored just two goals in their first five matches since the return to action before scoring five times on just nine shots. The analytics indicate that Los Bermellones were rather fortunate to put up five goals considering that their expected goals (xG) for that match were just 1.69 xG. Now Mallorca goes back on the road where they are last in La Liga with just 5 points based on their W1-D2-L13 record this season. Los Bermellones have scored just 13 goals in those sixteen road matches. Mallorca has failed to score at least one goal in nine of their last ten losses. They will also be undermanned in this match with the biggest loss being their leading scorer in Ante Budimir who is suspended for this match due to yellow cards. Budimir has scored 12 of Mallorca’s 35 goals this season. Manager Vicente Moreno’s team still has plenty to play for with them occupying the final relegation spot in 18th place being five points shy of safety in 17th place. Moreno’s team is playing better on defense as of late as they have allowed eight combined goals over their last five matches with only one of these sides scoring more than two goals. Atletico Madrid is a dominant defensive team that has registered three clean sheets while allowing just four combined goals in their six matches since the return last month. Los Colchoneros have allowed only 25 goals this season which is 2nd best in La Liga — and they lead the league with the lowest expected goals allowed mark. Atletico Madrid is also tied for 2nd by conceding only 10 goals in their sixteen league matches at home. But Los Colchoneros have scored just 23 times in those sixteen home matches. Manager Diego Simeone is likely to sub a number of his key players who played in that showdown with Barcelona when now hosting this lightly regarded Mallorca team. Six of Los Colchoneros’ last ten home games resulted in them shutting out their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-0 score. Four of the last five meetings between these two resulted in a game that finished Under 2.5 combined goals. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 v. Sheffield United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W12-D9-L10) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over West Ham last Tuesday. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Arsenal in the FA Cup on Sunday that followed up a 3-0 loss last Wednesday at Manchester United in their last English Premier League contest.
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs match with the Hammers was the first time under manager Jose Mourinho where he had a full complement of the team’s best scoring options at his disposal. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have been injured for much of time since Mourinho took over in mid-November and Dele Alli was suspended for their 1-1 draw with Manchester United in their first match back from the March stoppage. A healthy Spurs’ side generated a potent 2.53 expected goals against West Ham pointing to the still elite potential of this team. Remember, it was just over a year ago that this Tottenham team was in the finals of the Champions League where they lost to Liverpool for the European Championship. The team seemed tired of manager Mauricio Pochettino’s message in the fall with their sluggish play which led to him being sacked amidst disagreements with management over the direction of the team. Mourinho has ditched Pochettino’s pressing approach for a counter-attacking style that may be better attuned for the injuries he was facing midseason before the stoppage of play in March. Limiting the Hammers to just 0.84 expected goals is encouraging as is their 1-1 draw with Man United last week with the Red Devils being one of the hottest teams in the EPL. The most encouraging aspect of this team may from the play of Kane last week as he scored a goal and played with more energy and vigor on the pitch than he has demonstrated in a long time. The three months off may have been just what the doctor ordered for the forward who has won two straight Golden Boots in the EPL. Sheffield United is scoreless in their last six league matches — and they have only scored once in their four matches in the return to play last month. They have allowed eight goals in their last three matches. Perhaps a visit from the Regression Gods was inevitable — while the Blades rank 8th in the EPL with 44 points, their expected points (xPTS) drops them to 13th with 39.97 points in those projected rankings. This has always been a defense-first club under manager Chris Wilder — but injuries and a busy schedule testing the depth of a promoted side have challenged this team. Their best defender in center back Jack O’Connell remains a doubt with his injury for this match and defensive midfielder John Lunstram only played 35 minutes on Sunday with an ankle injury that may keep him out for this contest. After holding their opponents to just 6.82 inside the box before the break, Sheffield United have allowed 10 shots in EPL play since the return to play. And the Blades are allowing 3 big chances representing scoring chances of a 35% or better success rate per match since the return as compared to the 1.89 big chances they were allowed before the break. Or, maybe their injuries and challenges of the thin backline are just excuses for those inevitable Regression Gods: Sheffield United has allowed only 31 goals this season which is 3rd best in the EPL — but their 42.88 xGA is just 8th best in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United was an overachieving team this season that was benefiting from great cohesion. All that was spoiled by the stoppage of lay — and the Blades have not only regressed back to the mean in terms of their underlying metrics but their lack of depth and experience has them playing like the promoted team they were expected to be when they rejoined the EPL this season. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in November. But now Tottenham is much healthier under a new manager — and Sheffield United has not only played twice as many matches since the return risking fatigue with their limited depth but they are also playing their third match since the Spurs last took the pitch last Tuesday. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-20 |
Leicester v. Everton |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D8-L12) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Norwich City last Wednesday. Leicester City (W16-D7-L8) lost their FA Cup Quarterfinals match at home against Chelsea on Sunday by a 1-0 score after settling for a nil-nil draw at home against Brighton in their last English Premier League match last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Leicester City was riding high after their first seventeen league matches where they had 39 points while generation 1.93 expected points (xG) and allowing just 1.05 expected points (xGA). But the Foxes have lost their mojo since that time as they have managed just 16 points over their last fourteen league matches. They have regressed on both sides of the pitch as they have averaged just 1.48 xG over that span while allowing 1.65 xGA. They have experienced a massive -1.04 expected goal differential drop over that span. What has happened? For starters, their talisman Jamie Vardy has not been himself as he got into a scoring funk that was exacerbated by missing a couple of matches to an injury. His big chances of scoring opportunities of 35% or higher have plummeted since his hot streak in the fall. This malaise has spread to the entire team that has seen its tenacity and pace decline. The Foxes are also not getting great play out of their midfielders — and they will be without James Maddison for this match. Leicester City has not scored in four of their last six league matches while averaging just 1.13 xG over those contests — and they were then shutout on Sunday by Chelsea. They have won only four times in their last fourteen EPL matches. Since the return to play this month, they have generated only 1.68 expected goals in both their EPL matches — and they lost the expected goals battle against two teams mired in the bottom-six of the table in Brighton and Watford. Not good, Bob. Perhaps what Leicester City is experiencing is simply a long-overdue visit from the Regression Gods. While they are 3rd in the league in the table, their expected points of 49.71 drop them to 6th best. Everton is unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches — and they probably deserved a win in their draw with Liverpool in their first game back from the break. This is a much-improved team under manager Carlo Ancelotti. They have generated 1.98 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.22 xGA with that xG differential being the 5th best in the league over that span. The Toffees are one of three EPL teams entering this match week that have yet to concede a big chance. They return home to Goodison Park where they have only scored 19 times — but their xG at home rises to 24.05 which strongly suggests they have experienced some tough luck. Everton plays very tough defense at home as they held their opponents to just 1.12 xGA on their home pitch — and they have also held the top half of the table to just 1.19 xGA at home this season. The Toffees are unbeaten at home under Ancelotti with three wins in those six matches while allowing just four combined goals. And in their last eight matches against non-Big Six sides under Ancelotti, Everton is beaten in those contests with six wins and a +7 net goal differential with 14 goals scored. The Toffees still have much to play for despite being in 12th place as they are just four points out of 7th place and the likely final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Their 49.48 expected points (xPTS) are 7th best in the league a just behind Leicester City’s number.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will have revenge on their minds as well for this contest having lost three straight matches to the Foxes across all competitions. The Toffees lost the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 1st by a 2-1 score before then losing at Leicester City in the League Cup via penalty kicks after a 2-2 score back on December 18th. Manager Marco Silva was in charge of both those matches — so this is the Toffees' first opportunity to play the Foxes since Ancelotti took over the club. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Year with the Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-20 |
Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.25 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W13-D10-L8) comes off a 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last Wednesday in their last match in the English Premier League. Brighton (W7-D12-L12) registered a nil-nil draw in their last match last Thursday at Leicester City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United followed up their win over the Blades on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory at Norwich City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Saturday. Eight of the starters that played in that midweek match with Sheffield did not start o Saturday against the Canaries so manager Gunnar Solskjaer should have a relatively rested starting XI despite their busy schedule since the return to action this month. The Red Devils have scored five goals in their two EPL matches this month — and they have scored seven goals while allowing one goal in their three matches overall since the return. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary last Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Martial, Rashford, and Pogba did not start on Saturday so they should all be fresh for this match. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. The Red Devils have also been outstanding on defense with five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. But while they have surrendered just two goals in their last seven EPL matches, their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark over those seven games rises to a 7.3 xGA mark which strongly suggests they have been very fortunate in not surrendering more goals. Furthermore, much of their defensive prowess has taken place at Old Trafford where they have resisted five straight clean sheets. Man United has allowed nineteen of their thirty goals when playing on the road this season in EPL action. Brighton has lost just once in their last seven matches in EPL play. They return home where they have scored in five of their last six matches. The Seagulls will be a confident group when playing at the Amex where they have already pulled off upsets against Tottenham, Everton, and Arsenal while earning draws with Chelsea and Wolverhampton. In their three home matches against Big Six sides, Brighton has scored six times. The Seagulls have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 41 goals — but the deeper metrics suggest that both those numbers are unexpectedly low given their expected goals mark of 40.80 (xG) and their expected goals allowed (xGA) figure of 45.82. Brighton still has plenty to play for being only six points safe from relegation. Manager Graham Potter will open up his team’s style of play if they fall behind to attempt to salvage at least one point with the draw. They have an expected goals mark of 1.53 when playing at home — and they allow their opponents to register 1.33 xGA when at home.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton are dangerous dogs in this match (which is why I am passing on the side play) — I expect them to score on this Man United team that is not as stingy when playing on the road. But the Red Devils are clicking on offense now with their best talent finally all healthy. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams when they won by a 3-1 score back on November 10th. But Brighton has won their last two opportunities to host the Red Devils where they have scored four combined goals. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-20 |
Real Sociedad v. Getafe CF |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W13-D10-L8) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Valladolid last Tuesday. Real Sociedad (W14-D5-L12) has lost three straight matches after their 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE GETAFE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Real Sociedad is a young and vibrant team that was making a serious challenge to finish in the top-four in the La Liga this season which would qualify them for next year’s Champions League. But this team has struggled in the return to play this month as they have lost three of their four matches with just one draw keeping things from being completely dismal. We had La Real in that opening match at home against Osasuna where I endorsed a strong play on Real Sociedad given the underlying metrics for both teams along with the apparent mismatch for both teams with Osasuna not having much to play for in the return to play. But watching that match made it evident that La Real was simply not very motivated despite a rally from their 1-0 deficit to eke out the draw. There have been a handful of younger players across the European leagues who did not keep themselves in tip-top shape during quarantine who have then been slow to get back to game-shape. With Real Sociedad now on a three-game losing streak and seven points out of 4th place that would qualify them for the Champions League, the motivation for this team is in question moving forward. Injuries — or the lowered threshold of what is a debilitating injury — has made matters worse for this team. La Real will be without their captain Asier Illarramendi along with Ander Barrenetxea, Lucas Sangalli, and Ander Guevara are dealing with injuries that will likely keep them out for this match. And their key backline player in Diego Llorente is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Wednesday. This potential Champions League team is simply a shell of their best days pre-COVID. They have only scored two times in their four matches after being 3rd in the league in scoring before the stoppage in play. Now Real Sociedad goes back on the road where they are 8th in the La Liga with 20 points — but their expected points (xPTS) of 16.20 in their fifteen road matches are just 11th best in the league. Getafe is winless in their last five contests — but they have only lost once in their four matches since the return to action. The Azulones engage in an intense style that may have been difficult to reproduce without a set of friendlies before returning to league action after three months off. But every week that passes should help Getafe return to the form that keeps them in 5th place in La Liga just 5 points out of 4th place (and Champions League qualification) entering this match in the live standings. Getafe has only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play. They return home for this match where they have lost only three times in sixteen league matches — and those losses were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid who are the top-three teams in the league. The Azulones have been a bit unfortunate at home with their 22 goals scored contrasting with their 28.12 expected goals (xG) at home which is 4th best in La Liga. They will also be without their best defender in center back Djene Dakonam who was suspended for this match after being dealt his second yellow card on Tuesday. But the Azulones have a bit more to play for at this point of the season — and they have one extra day of rest while being in better form than La Real.
FINAL TAKE: Getafe won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 21- score on the road. Getafe has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams — look for them to continue their dominance in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Network Match of the Year with Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-20 |
Manchester City v. Newcastle United UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on March 4th when they defeated Sheffield Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Newcastle United punched their Quarterfinals ticket on March 3rd when they defeated West Brom on the road by a 3-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City will be playing their first match since officially being eliminated from defending their two-time English Premier League championship with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea on Thursday. Those are the only two goals that the Citizens have allowed in their three matches since the return of play this month. Man City leads the EPL by allowing just 1.01 expected goals per game this season — and their defense is much better with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte at center back leading their backline. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season (before the return to play this month), the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play, those numbers fell to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. With holding-midfielder Fernandinho suspended for this match after being issued a red card in that game with Chelsea on Thursday, I expect LaPorte to be in the starting XI this afternoon. Manager Pep Guardiola will likely choose his best players for this match with FA Cup and Champions League championships in August still goals this season. But Man City will be without their best attacking forward in Sergio Aguero who suffered an injury last week that may keep him out for the rest of the EPL season. While Gabriel Jesus is a capable replacement at forward after being rested in that Chelsea match, it is Aguero that is the straw that stirs the drink. Newcastle is playing very effective compact soccer right now. They registered their third clean sheet over their last four matches with the only goal being surrendered over that span being on Wednesday in their 1-1 draw at home versus Aston Villa. The Magpies are particularly stingy when play at home in St. James Park where they have allowed only 13 goals in sixteen English Premier League matches which are tied for the second-lowest mark in the EPL. With all eight teams competing in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup being from the EPL, I am comfortable using those statistics in handicapping these contests. The concern for this Newcastle United team is that their ambition on offense can stagnate. They registered a low 0.79 expected goals against a suspect Aston Villa defense on Wednesday while failing to generate even one big scoring chance of at least a 35% probability of success rate. The Magpies are averaging just 1.07 expected goals per game in the EPL which is second-to-last. Newcastle has scored only 16 goals at home this year which is the second-fewest in the EPL — and that is matched by their expected goal projection at home which is also 19th in the league.
FINAL TAKE: But manager Steve Bruce is content to grind out lower scoring matches on his home pitch. In their four home games against a big six side in the EPL this season, Newcastle has won two of these matches (while taking one point with a draw in a third game) while seeing only seven combined goals scored. 25* FA Cup Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-20 |
Southampton v. Watford OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W11-D4-L16) has lost three of their last four matches with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Thursday. Watford (W6-D10-L15) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Burnley on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton has seen five combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action this month as they began with a 3-0 victory at Norwich City. The Saints have played better under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after hitting rock bottom in a 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl doubled-down on his high-press aggressive style of play which has helped generate scoring chances. Southampton is averaging 1.59 expected goals per match this season — and they have the 7th best expected goals mark when playing on the road. But this approach does make them vulnerable on their back end. The Saints are allowing 2.42 big scoring chances with an expected success rate of at least 35% which is the 4th highest mark in the EPL. Their challenge on defense in this match is heightened with starting defensive back Jack Stephens suspended for this match after receiving a red card in that match against the Gunners on Thursday. Southampton is averaging 1.66 expected goals (xG) when playing on the road — but they are allowing 1.79 expected goals (xGA) in these fifteen road contests. The Saints have scored at least one goal in seventeen of their last eighteen road matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games away from home. Watford has only seen three combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action. But they return home to Vicarage Road where they are average 1.80 xG per match which is 8th best in the EPL. The Hornets have scored in seven of their last eight matches at home. But they are also allowing their opponents to average 1.51 xGA in their fifteen home matches. Additionally, Watford has only generated just one clean sheet in their last nine matches.
FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen an average of 3.03 combined expected goals scored in their fifteen matches at home. 60% of their home games have finished Over the Total. Southampton is averaging 3.04 combined expected goals per match in their fifteen road games. 67% of those matches have finished Over 2.5 goals — and they have seen eight of their last ten road matches finished Over 2.5 goals. 25* EPL Sunday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-20 |
Manchester United -1 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester United reached the Quarterfinals of this event back on March 5th when they defeated Derby County on the road by a 3-0 score. Norwich City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup the day before on March 4th when they upset Tottenham via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big six powers in the English Premier League tend to rotate players for these FA Cup matches with this competition not as prestigious as the English Premier League and the Champions League. But Gunnar Solskjaer has never won a championship as a manager so he may be keener to produce a lineup that will lead to victory in this match. At the very least, Solskjaer will likely call on his big guns if his team does not have a lead in the second half. And he certainly has the benefit of a deeper bench than what this Norwich City team has available to them as the last-place team in the EPL. Man United is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches with nine victories over that span. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary on Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. But it is the play on defense that has made the biggest difference for Solskjaer’s side. The Red Devils have registered clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. And they are just one of three teams to not allow even one big chance since the EPL returned to action this month. They go on the road for this match but they are averaging over 2.0 expected goals away from home in league play — and they are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road in the EPL. While this is technically not an English Premier League match, I am comfortable looking at that data when assessing how they will perform against another EPL team. Norwich City is in deep trouble to be relegating as they are six points behind the three-way tie for 19th place in the EPL. They have managed only 8 points in their last eleven matches where they have won just one match. The Canaries have lost both their matches since the return to play while failing to score and allowing four goals. Norwich City is struggling on both sides of the pitch. They have been held scoreless in six of their last seven matches — and they scored just one time in that one game where they were not blanked. The Canaries have the worst attack in the EPL — and they have only managed two shots on target in their two matches since the return to play. They have also allowed a whopping 21 shots inside the box in their two matches this month — and they are last in the EPL in expected goals allowed.
FINAL TAKE: Man United swept the two EPL matches between these two sides this season as they followed up a 3-1 win at Carrow Road in October with a 4-0 win at home at Old Trafford on January 11th. While rotation risks exist with the Red Devils for this match, keep in mind that they play five straight matches against teams in the bottom seven in the EPL starting with this contest so Solskjaer may feel comfortable playing some of his key players to make sure his team advances to the Semifinals. And because Norwich City will be playing with abandon in this elimination contest, a Red Devils route is very possible. 25* FA Cup Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 v. Aston Villa |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W12-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their two matches since the return to play this month after they defeated Bournemouth on Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D6-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are playing outstanding soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last five EPL matches with four victories. They have scored nine goals in those five matches while conceding just two goals. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is playing suffocating defense with six clean sheets in their last seven league matches. They have held their two opponents since the return to just 0.40 combined expected goals allowed after limiting a solid Cherries’ attack to just 0.13 expected goals allowed (xGA). Wolverhampton is significantly better — and more confident — in thwarting their opponent’s attack when Willy Boly is healthy and on the pitch. In their fifteen EPL matches with Boly, they are allowing just 0.50 goals-per-game with nine clean sheets while allowing 1.20 big chances per game and 6.80 shots inside the box per game. Those numbers all compare favorably versus sixteen league matches without Boly where they are allowing 1.60 goals-per-game with just one clean sheet while allowing 1.62 big chances per match and 6.87 shots inside the box per game. Overall, Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing only 24 big chances all season. The Wolves are a balanced team — they are also 4th in the league with 52 big chances on offense. These strong fundamentals help explain why they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-four of their thirty-one league matches. They are unbeaten in their last four EPL matches on the road with three victories. They are 4th in the league with 24 points on the road — and they rank 3rd in expected points (xPTS) when playing away from home. With Wolverhampton tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table, they are very motivated to keep playing well to qualify for one of the four spots for next fall’s Champions League (with Man City’s eligibility still up in the air). Aston Villa is tied for second-to-last in the EPL table having gone winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They have only scored twice in their three matches since the return to play this month. On paper, it appears as if the Villans have significantly improved their play on defense with manager Dean Smith using the stoppage of play to adjust his defensive tactics. Smith had to do something — his team had allowed the most shots inside the box through twenty-nine game weeks since the EPL starting measuring that data. But the Villans have also benefited from a relatively weak returning schedule facing a Magpies team this week that is second-to-last in scoring in the EPL along with a rusty Chelsea side, and an undermanned Sheffield United group that leans heavily on their defensive play. Aston Villa remains desperate for points — so they will play more aggressively if and when they fall behind in this match. The Villans have not registered a clean sheet in eleven straight matches. They are winless in their last nineteen matches in English top-flight in the top-six of the standings in the time of the match — and they have lost seventeen of these contests including their last thirteen.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 10th. With seven days off before their next contest, Nuno can comfortably play his best starting XI. Don’t get worried if the Wolves lack a lead at halftime as they have outscored their opponents in the second half by a whopping 32-10 margin. And they have allowed only one goal in the EPL this season after taking a one-goal lead. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-20 |
Burnley v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W11-D6-L12) was unbeaten in their last seven matches before the stoppage of play after their 1-1 draw at home with Tottenham. Manchester City (W19-D3-L7) comes off a 3-0 win at home on Wednesday over Arsenal in their return to the pitch.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citizens’ victory over the Gunners was their third clean sheet in their last four matches in the English Premier League — and they have played six straight matches in EPL action where one of the teams was shut out. Man City suffocated the Arsenal attack on Wednesday as they allowed only three shots with none on target. Pep Guardiola’s team is much better with center back Aymeric LaPorte on the pitch after he missed much of the season with an injury. Before Wednesday’s match, in the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play this week, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. Man City scored three goals against Arsenal but keep in mind that two of those goals were scored with a man advantage after the Gunners’ defenseman, David Luiz, was whistled for a red card. The Citizens struggled early to get their offense going in that match as they managed only two shots while posting a minuscule 0.13 expected goals mark in the first 30 minutes of that match. Forward Sergio Aguero did not start in that match so he is likely to be one of the starters up top for the two-time defending champions for this match — but who knows what will happen with Pep roulette with the remaining starting XI. Don’t be surprised if Raheem Sterling and/or Kevin DeBruyne does not start in this match. With Liverpool all but clinched the EPL title this season, the goal for Guardiola and this team is to slowly get his team in shape and form for a Champions League run in August which is the only championship to elude this team over their fantastic run in the last few seasons. Man City has the allowed only 12 goals in the EPL when playing at home in the Etihad while also leading the league in the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They have produced six clean sheets in their fourteen home matches at home. And in their ten home games against teams outside the traditional big six EPL clubs, Man City has surrendered just seven goals. Burnley will be significantly undermanned at forward with both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out with injuries for this match. Wood and Barnes are the Clarets’ two leading scorers with seventeen combined goals which account for half of the team’s 34 goals on the season. As it is when at full strength, Burnley has scored only seven goals in their ten matches against the traditional big six sides in the EPL. Expect manager Sean Dyche has his team park the proverbial bus to stymie the Man City attack in this match. Dyche would be ecstatic with a nil-nil draw. The Clarets have allowed at least three goals in only six of their twenty-nine matches — and they have given up more than three goals in just three of those games. When Burnley is playing in a defensive 4-4-2 formation, they enjoy a positive net expected goal differential of +4.85 (xGD) so they are comfortable with this approach. Defense has led the way for the Clarets’ good form before the stoppage of play. Burnley has allowed only one goal in the last three matches while giving up just two combined goals over their last six matches. But the Clarets have scored just four times in their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Man City in the reverse fixture on December 3rd. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their last five opportunities to host the Clarets in Etihad Stadium. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-20 |
Liverpool v. Everton +1 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D7-L12) is winless in their last three matches after suffering an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Chelsea in their last match back on March 8th. Liverpool (W27-D1-L1) returns to the pitch after a 2-1 win over Bournemouth back on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I question the motivation of this Liverpool team returning from the three-month hiatus with little to play for. The Reds are a commanding 22 points up in 1st place in the EPL table so their championship is all but guaranteed. Liverpool was also eliminated already in the Champions League in a loss in the Round of 16 to Real Madrid so manager Jurgen Klopp does not have any expectations for his squad to prepare for an August run to defend their European championship. It has been a magical twelve or so months for the Reds — but it is probably impossible for them to continue to play at the incredible level that they had enjoyed. While they have 82 points in the EPL this season, the deeper metrics suggest that they should have only earned 59.61 expected points (xPTS) which is a dramatic dropoff (and below Manchester City’s xPTS mark). They have outscored their opponents by +45 goals this year in league play — but their expected goals differential drops to +32.34 (xGD). Cracks in their armor were showing before the stoppage in play. After the disappointing loss to Real Madrid, Liverpool then averaged just 1.55 expected goals (xG) in their final three EPL matches while allowing 1.44 expected goals (xGA) which is far below their scorching 2.16 xG - 1.12 xGA clip for the season. From the vantage point of my “eye test”, the Reds have lost some of their emotional intensity which resulted in less vigor in their effort on defense. Now Liverpool goes on the road where while they are W12-D1-L1 in EPL play for 37 points, their expected points on the road fall to just 26.00. Everton has been underachieving relatively to the deeper metrics all season. While they are in 13th place in the EPL table, their expected points are 6th best in the league. Those numbers suggest that the Toffees have been the second unluckiest team in the league. They had registered at least 2.0 expected goals per match in seven straight contests before their underwhelming effort at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Everton has played much better since manager Carlo Ancelotti was appointed to replace Marco Silva in late December. Ancelotti is the real deal with three Champions League titles as the manager of AC Milan and then Real Madrid. Ancelotti is considered a tactical genius with an ability to adapt his schemes to his talent along with the weaknesses of his opposition. The Toffees are W5-D3-L3 since Ancelotti took over which has improved the W8-D2-L9 clip they had under Silva. Over their last five matches, Everton led the EPL in big chances created on offense along with being second in total goals scored and third in expected goals. The Toffees were also second in expected goals allowed so they have played well on both ends of the pitch. Ancelotti has unlocked the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in EPL to record at least one big chance in eight straight match weeks. Overall, Everton is 2nd in the EPL since Ancelotti took over by averaging 2.17 xG — and they are 6th in the league on defense with a 1.37 xGA mark. This is a very underrated side. They host this match at Goodison Park where they are W1-D3-L1 in their five matches against a traditional big six opponent well scoring 6 goals and allowing just 6 goals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played to a draw in six of their last seven Merseyside Derby’s at Everton. The Toffees will be very motivated to pull the upset as they lost the reverse fixture to Liverpool by a 5-2 score on December 4th before then losing to the Reds on January 11th by a 1-0 score in FA Cup play against a roster filled mostly of younger players. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-TV Match of the Year with Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W10-D13-L6) was unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches before the stoppage of play with their 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on March 7th. West Ham United (W7-D6-L16) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Arsenal back on March 7th in their last match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves were unbeaten in their last five games in the English Premier League while posting clean sheets in four of those contests. They are also still alive for the Europa League championship as their last match before the break-in play was a 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Piraeus in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches. Depth is an issue for this West Midlands team so the three-month break offers them an advantage as they are rested for this final run of matches. Wolverhampton is currently in 7th place in the EPL table while remaining alive to qualify for one of the four available Champions League slots. The deeper metrics are bullish on the Wolves as they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-two of their twenty-nine matches in the EPL this season. Wolverhampton ranks 5th in the league in expected points (xPTS). Over their last eight matches, the Wolves were posting an expected goals (xG) scoring mark of 2.08 while holding their opponents to just 0.94 expected goals (xGA) — and they held the advantage in this metric after matches with top-level teams Manchester United, Tottenham, and even 1st place Liverpool during that span. Now this team goes on the road where they rank 3rd in the EPL in xPTS. West Ham was just W1-D2-L6 in their last nine matches before the stoppage of play. Defense has been a major weakness for this team as they rank 2nd-to-last in the league by allowing 2.05 expected goals per match. The return of David Moyes as their manager at the end of December did not rectify this problem. The Hammers have allowed the second-most Big Chances for their opponents along with the second most shots inside the box since Moyes took over the reins of this team for the second time after he was skipper for the team in 2017-18. West Ham has generated only 8 points in their ten matches under Moyes when allowing 1.94 expected goals per match which is the 4th worst mark in the league during the span. West Ham hosts this match without fans in London Stadium where they are suffering with an expected goal differential of -5.61.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has lost their last three matches against Wolverhampton after their 2-0 loss at Molineaux on December 4th. Look for the Wolves to outclass the Hammers who are struggling in 17th place in the EPL table. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Sevilla +0.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D9-L6) remained unbeaten in their last six matches on Monday with their 1-1 draw at Levante. Barcelona (W20-D4-L5) has won seven of their last eight matches with their 2-0 victory over Leganes on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla suffered a hard-luck draw in that match on Monday as they scored an own goal in the 87th minute to forfeit their impending 3 points with the victory. They have yet to see an opposing player score against them in their two matches since the return to play. The Andalusians are in 3rd place in the La Liga table as they look to qualify for one of the four slots in the Champions League. Sevilla already had a strong attacking team but they fortified their stable of forwards in the winter transfer period by signing the 23-year old Youssef En-Nesryi along with acquiring Suso on loan from AC Milan. They join their summer transfer in Lucas Ocampos who is their leading scorer this season. Over their last ten matches, the Andalusians have lost now twice while posting 1.64 expected goals (xG) and allowing just 1.17 expected goals (xGA). They host this match where they are unbeaten since December while losing only two of their fourteen matches. They have an impressive +0.97 net expected goal differential when playing at home. And while some bettors may look to the fact that they have only produced 15 points in their last eight home matches, they have posted an impressive +1.03 net expected goal differential in those matches which suggests they were the victim of some unfortunate circumstances. Barcelona has won eight of their ten matches since manager Quique Setien took over the team in January. But both of their losses under Setien have taken place on the road against Real Madrid and Valencia. The reigning La Liga champions have not been as dominant when playing on the road as they are averaging just 1.5 points per road match which is their lowest mark in a decade — and their expected 1.64 points per match on the road indicates they have not been particularly unlucky with those results. The Catalonians have just a +3 net goal differential when playing on the road — and the expected goals metric concurs with only that slight edge as they are just +0.30 net expected goal differential per match when playing on the road. In their victory over Leganes on Tuesday, they only generated 0.88 non-penalty kick expected goals which is not very impressive. Superstar Lionel Messi did score the final goal in that match via a penalty kick. Yet they are averaging 2.34 expected goals per game at home — and now they go back on the road where they are scoring just 1.48 expected goals per match. Barca has feasted on the lesser teams in the league like the last place Leganes this season — they have only 9 points in their last seven matches against teams in the top half of the table.
FINAL TAKE: Barcelona did defeat Sevilla in the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 6th in their 4-0 victory at home at Camp Nou. But the underlying metrics suggest that the match was much closer than expected as Sevilla won the expected goals battle by a 3.27 to 2.46 mark. The Andalusians have a good chance to pull the upset on this Barcelona team that has been vulnerable on the road. A draw may be likely which makes getting the +0.5 goal very valuable. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Match of the Year with the Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-20 |
Manchester United v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D9-L8) returns to the pitch for the first time since they defeated LASK on the road by a 5-0 score in Europa League action on March 12th. Tottenham (W11-D8-L10) last played in the second leg of the Round of 16 of the Champions League where they were eliminated by RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score on March 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils had found their form under manager Gunnar Solskjaer as they had not been beaten in their last eleven matches across all competitions while scoring 29 goals over that span and conceding goals just twice. Man United was not simply feasting against weaker competition either as four of those eight victories came against teams currently residing in the top-six spots in the EPL table including Manchester City who they defeated in their last EPL match on March 8th by a 2-0 score. That was no fluke either against two-time defending EPL champions (and the best statistical team this year in the EPL according to the expected goals metric) — they won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.75 margin in that contest. The winter signing of midfielder Bruno Fernandes jumpstarted this team. The Portuguese star from Sporting Lisbon brought this team a risk-taking play-maker that they have been missing. Since Gameweek 25, the Red Devils are second in the EPL in shots on target. Now this team takes the pitch again healthy with forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba back from injuries that have sidelined both for much of the season. Rashford is the team’s best scorer — and he should thrive with a new partner in Fernandes on the pitch. Pogba is the real wildcard here as the enigmatic French star has not contributed much over the last two seasons. But do not underestimate Pogba’s talent — he was a key component in France’s World Cup victory in 2018 and tends to shine when surrounded with other elite players. Despite not being healthy all season, Man United sports an impressive W6-D4-L1 mark in their eleven matches against the top-eight teams in the EPL table while allowing just nine goals with five clean sheets. Their lone loss was at Liverpool who are running away with the EPL title. Now at full strength, the Red Devils could become very, very good for the rest of this unique season. Tottenham also gets healthy again with Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Moussa Sissoko, Steven Bergwijn, and Tangy Ndombele all recovered from the injuries they were dealing with before the stoppage in March. But the Spurs will be without one of their key pieces in the midfield with Dele Alli suspended for this match. Kane is a bit of a mystery for me as I worry that the 26-year old may be wearing down after years of extended service for this franchise along with the English national team. But the problems for this Tottenham side that are winless in their last six matches are more endemic than just some ill-timed midseason knocks. Manager Maurice Pochettino took this team to the Finals of the Champions League to conclude last season (where they lost to Liverpool) — but he returned for his sixth season with the franchise with a group of players that had lost interest in his leadership. The ensuing slow start prompted his firing in mid-November where he was replaced by the enigmatic Jose Mourinho. One of the tactical changes that Mourinho deployed was to abandon the pressing style that Pochettino favored that was no longer succeeding for counter-attacking tactics. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the results have been dreadful on the defensive side of the pitch for this team. In the seventeen matches under Mourinho, Tottenham have 29 expected goals allowed mark which is 5th worst in the EPL over that span — and their -2.6 expected goal differential in those matches in 12th in the league. Over their last ten matches, the Spurs averaging an xGA mark of 2.08 while twice allowing their opponents to cross the 3.0 expected goals mark. In their last EPL match against Burnley, they allowed a team not known for their attacking prowess to pepper them with 21 shots in eight on target in what concluded in a 1-1 draw on March 7th. Seeing the return of these talented offensive players will help — but the talent and cohesion of the roster of defensive backs remains a question. Against the traditional Big Six EPL teams this season, Tottenham is just W1-D2-L5 while conceding 13 times and scoring only 9 goals.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Manchester United back on December 4th. Tottenham has generated 26 of their 41 points in the EPL at home this season in their new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — but the lack of fans in this contest will detract from their home-field advantage in this facility. The Spurs have lost two of their three opportunities to host a Big Six side this season. 25* EPL Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-20 |
Mainz v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). THE SITUATION: FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L18) looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg last Sunday. Borussia Dortmund (W20-D6-L5) has won five of their last six matches with their 1-0 win at Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: That was the fourth clean sheet for the Black-Yellows in their six matches since the return to play last month. Borussia Dortmund has only allowed three goals in those six contests. Manager Lucien Favre has transformed his team from a freewheeling attacking unit into a side that prioritizes sturdy defense. BVB has allowed only five goals in their last ten matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered just three goals in their last ten matches in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, they have registered a clean sheet in eight of their last twelve matches in league play. Borussia Dortmund returns home where they lead the league in both goals allowed and in expected goals allowed (xGA). On paper, the Black-Yellows also have a very potent offense that is second in the league with 82 goals scored this season. But Borussia Dortmund has been wildly fortunate with that haul since their expected goals drop to just 59.71. And while the BVB has scored 46 times at home, their xG at home also plummets to a 33.52 mark. Since the return to play, Dortmund has failed to register even 1.0 xG in three of their six matches — and they have only topped 1.76 xG once in those contests. FSV Mainz has not scored a goal in four straight maths — and they are just six goals in their last eleven contests. But Achim Beierlorzer has been seeing his team play better defense since he took over the club midseason. The 05ers have only given up 10 goals in their six matches since the return. They also limited Augsburg to just 0.76 expected goals on Sunday in that narrow 1-0 loss.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund produced a 4-0 shutout victory over FSV Mainz back on December 14th in the reverse fixture between these two teams. The 05ers will struggle to score against an even more compact foe in BVB this time around — but they should allow fewer goals in this rematch. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS2-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-20 |
Sheffield United v. Aston Villa |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). THE SITUATION: Sheffield United (W11-D10-L7) returns to the pitch for the first time since March 7th when they defeated Norwich City at home by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D4-L17) has lost five games in a row across all competitions after their 4-0 loss at Leicester City back on March 9th.
REASONS TO TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Blades were unbeaten in their last six matches before the stoppage in play. They had only lost to the top two teams in the league in Liverpool and Manchester City in their last thirteen matches on the road in league play. Sheffield United’s defensive-first approach has been very successful against the non-power teams in the English Premier League. In their nineteen matches against the traditional non-Power Six, the Blades are W10-D6-L3. They are also unbeaten in their eighth matches on the road in the EPL against non-Big Six sides with four victories and four draws. They have won seven of their last nine matches with two draws being their lone blemishes against non-Big Six sides while only allowing five goals in these contests. Aston Villa has allowed 12.24 expected goals in their last four league matches to compound to their defensive woes this season. The Villans are last in the EPL in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed. The metrics are not encouraging with this team at all either as they rank last in the league with an expected goal differential of -27.8 xGD. Aston Villa returns to action having allowed the most shots inside the box through the first twenty-nine game weeks since that metric started being measured. They have not registered a clean sheet in nine straight games. The Villans also do not pressure the opposing goalkeeper enough as they have the fourth feast big chances in the EPL while ranking last in both big chances and expected goals scored over their last ten matches. Aston Villa is getting their talented midfielder John McGinn back for this match after he suffered an injury in the fall — but his game fitness for this match is in question after the long layoff.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back in December. Aston Villa will struggle to score against the compact Blades defense — but they will likely allow at least one goal as their expected goals allowed of 2.45 xGA is -0.32 xGA worse than the next most porous defensive team in the EPL. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-20 |
VfL Wolfsburg +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). THE SITUATION: VfL Wolfsburg (W12-D10-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg on Saturday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L9) has lost two straight matches after their 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE VFL WOLFSBURG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Wolfsburg has been solid since the return to action last month with their W3-D1-L2 mark in those six contests. Die Wolfe finds themselves in 6th place in the Bundesliga table while being 4 points safe to qualify for next fall’s Europa League. The metrics suggest they have underachieved this season as their expected points (xPTS) from the expected goals projections places them 5th best in the league. They are led by the Danish superstar Wout Weghost who scored twice on Saturday to raise his goals mark to 18 on the season across all competitions. Wolfsburg has registered at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in four straight matches. Now they go on the road where they have won three straight matches with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +3.42 in those games. Die Wolfe defeated 4th place Beyer Leverkusen on the road back on May 25th by a dominant 4-1 score. Wolfsburg is 4th in the Bundesliga in xPTS while ranking in the top-four on the road in both xG and xGA. Borussia Monchengladbach has struggled since the return with just a W2-D2-L2 mark while scoring just 10 goals while allowing 9 goals. The scoring prowess for Die Fohlen has slowed as of late as they have scored only one goal in their last two matches. Furthermore, Borussia Monchengladbach has scored only five combined goals in their last four matches — and they have scored more than one goal in just one of their last five games. They were without forward Alassane Plea over the weekend as he was suspended for that match against Bayern Munich. But while he will return, the Foals are undermanned up top still with Breel Embolo dealing with a calf injury that kept him from starting on Saturday and with Marcus Thuram dealing with an injury that had him limp off the field in that game against the Bavarians. Borussia Monchengladbach hosts this match where they rank tied for 6th in the league with 20 goals allowed — but their xGA at home drops to 11th in the Bundesliga with a 27.48 mark.
FINAL TAKE: Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture at home by a 4-1 score back on December 15th. Borussia Monchengladbach is not playing as well since the return from the stoppage of play. They also appear to be feeling the pressure to finish in the top four spots in the standings to secure one of the four Champions League qualifications. Wolfsburg can pull the upset in this match — but they would be happy with a very attainable draw. 25* Bundesliga Tuesday FS2-TV Match of the Year with VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Osasuna v. Real Sociedad -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-136 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). THE SITUATION: Real Sociedad (W14-D4-L9) returns to the pitch for the first time this afternoon since their 2-1 win at Eibar back on March 10th. Osasuna (W8-D10-L9) also comes off a victory when they last played in March with their 1-0 win over Espanyol.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL SOCIEDAD MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: La Real was playing very good football before the stoppage of play three months ago. They had won seven of their last eight matches with five of those contests being in La Liga action with the lone loss being to first-place Barcelona. Manager Imanol Alguacil’s side began the week tied for 4th place with a very real opportunity to qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top four in the league. La Real is a young and vibrant team that plays an attractive form of football. The underlying metrics suggest they deserve the success they have achieved this season. Their net expected goal differential is 5th best in La Liga. They have registered clean sheets in seven of their fourteen victories in league play. They also have very tough to beat at home at Reale Arena where they have won seven straight contests including their last four against La Liga opponents. Real Sociedad is tied for second in the league with 27 goals scored — and they have generated at least 2.48 expected goals in five of their last six games at home. They also rank 2nd in the league in expected goals allowed in league play when playing at home. La Real has only surrendered three goals at home in their last seven home games. Additionally, they have won five of their last seven home games against teams in the bottom half of the La Liga table. Osasuna is in 11th place in the twenty-team league. Motivation may be an issue for this midlevel side that is 9 points clear of the relegation zone but 8 points outside qualifying for the Europa League. They had lost five of their last six contests before their win over Espanyol in their final game before COVID-19 forced cancellations. Los Rojillos had scored only nine goals in their nine matches played in 2020. They now go back on the road where they have won just once in their last five games. Osasuna plays much better on their home pitch where they have a +10.4 net expected goal differential — but in their thirteen road matches in La Liga they are burdened with a -8.6 net expected goal differential. Just 33% of their expected goals this season have occurred away from home. They have also allowed at least two goals in four of their last six games on the road. To make matters even worse, there may not be a La Liga team that returns to action so far from full strength as Los Rojillos. Ruben Garcia is suspended for this match from his actions back in March. Kike Barja, Fran Merida, Robert Ibanev, Facundo Roncaglia, and Chimy Avila are all dealing with injuries which place their status to play in doubt. Osasuna is not a team with the luxury of depth. They were promoted to La Liga this season after winning the Segunda Division last year.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad has won the last three meetings between these two teams as they followed up their 4-3 victory on league play in December with a 3-1 victory on January 29th in a Copa del Rey match. Osasuna has not defeated Real Sociedad in the Spanish top-flight competition since May of 2012. With Real Sociedad much closer to full strength and with much to play for still, expect them to earn the victory. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports-TV Match of the Year with Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -1 v. Schalke 04 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L8) bounced-back from a 4-2 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Saturday with a 3-0 victory over FC Saarbrucken on Tuesday in the Semifinals of the DFB Pokal Cup. FC Schalke 04 (W9-D11-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke is probably playing the worst soccer in the Bundesliga right now — that was their first point on Sunday in their five matches in the return to action last month. They have only scored twice in those five games while conceding 11 times — and they have only won the expected goals advanced metrics battle once in those five contests. The Royal Blues are now winless in their last twelve matches while generating a mere 5 points over that span. Schalke was probably overachieving relative to the deeper shot numbers they were putting up earlier in the season — but the Regression Gods have finally paid a visit to this team. They have only scored four goals in their twelve matches since their last victory back on January 17th. Manager David Wagner did embrace a youth movement in the middle of the season — but the former Huddersfield manager in the English Premier League has been rumored to have lost the locker room. Schalke certainly fits the prototype of a team that has nothing to play for with them being now 5 points out of the last Europa League qualifying spot in the Bundesliga but being safe from relegation. The Royal Blues are simply not showing much ambition on offense. Their leading scorer is Suat Serder with seven goals which are not a good sign considering that he is a holding midfielder dedicated mostly to playing defense. Schalke has been held scoreless in eight of their last twelve matches. The Royal Blues have also not had a clean sheet since February. They return home to Veltins-Arena where they have the second-lowest expected goals total. And they will also be undermanned for this match with Serder along with Amine Harit, Omar Mascerell, and Guido Burostailer all out with injuries. Bayer Leverkusen has not been great in the return to action last month as they have lost two of their six matches across all competitions. But Die Werkself has still won six of their last eight league matches along with ten of their last fourteen games in the Bundesliga. They have scored in nineteen straight matches whole posting a healthy 21 goals in their last eight league contests. This team should remain very motivated to earn 3 points with the win considering that they are tied for 3rd place in the table — and they have a huge opportunity to pull ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach after they lost at Bayern Munich yesterday to ensure one of the top four spots to qualify for next year’s Champions League. Die Werkself have played better on the road this season with ten victories in their fifteen league matches away from home. They are tied for 2nd place in total points on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen will also get two key players back on the pitch for this contest. Their 20-year old superstar Kai Havertz has been dealing with an injury but he appears healthy enough to return for this match. He had scored five goals since the return to play last month. And the team’s star striker Kevin Holland is set to return for this first time since the stoppage of play. Die Werkself won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. Expect a dominant win against a Schalke team that seems to have packed it in for the proverbial beach. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-20 |
Levante v. Valencia OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). THE SITUATION: Levante (W10-D3-L14) returns to the pitch in the Spanish top-flight professional soccer league after last eking out a 1-1 draw at home to Granada back on March 8th. Valencia (W11-D9-L7) followed up a 1-1 draw at Deportivo Alaves on March 6th in their last La Liga by losing at home to Atalanta by a 4-3 score in an empty stadium to end their Champions League run in the Round of 16 with an aggregate 8-4 loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Valencia’s Champions League campaign is now complete this season but manager Albert Celades will be trying to motivate his team to qualify for next year’s European championship as they are 4 points out of the last qualifying position in the La Liga table. Los Che hosts this match in front of an empty stadium where they have scored 23 times which is 6th best in the league — and they have scored in fifteen straight matches on their home pitch. Those offensive numbers are right-in-line with their overall scoring marks as they are 6th in La Liga with 38 goals scored. However, where this team has taken a step back from last year’s Copa Del Rey championship team under previous manager Marcelino is on the defensive end of the pitch. They have surrendered 39 goals in league play this season — but that mark rises to 43.83 expected goals allowed (xGA) per match which is the 3rd highest mark in La Liga in that metric. They have only registered seven clean sheets this season while allowing 15 shots per match. While they rank tied for 6th in the league in the fewest goals allowed at home, their expected goals allowed when playing at home is the 4th worst mark in La Liga. Their backline is also being reconfigured for this match with Ezequiel Garay and Gabriel Paulista both dealing with knocks that will keep them out for this match. Levante has allowed the 5th most goals in La Liga but they rank last in the league with an xGA mark of 2.17 per game. They also are last in La Liga in xGA when playing on the road. They have allowed at least two goals in five straight league matches away from home. But manager Paco Lopez’s counter-attacking approach has resulted in them scoring in nine of their last thirteen matches on the road. 59% of Granotas’ matches this season have gone Over 2.5 combined goals — and they have played eight of their last nine matches on the road Over 2.5 (so the worst-case scenario for this match should be a Push with the Total set at 3 in most spots).
FINAL TAKE: This Valencia Derby is typically a higher-scoring affair. The last four meetings between these two teams have seen 18 combined goals after Valencia won the reverse fixture between these two teams in December by a 4-2 score in a wild affair with sloppy defense where Los Che rallying from a 2-0 deficit. Valencia has scored at least three goals in their last four opportunities to host Levante in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. Hoffenheim OVER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W16-D11-L3) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Paderborn last Saturday. Hoffenheim (W12-D7-L11) also comes off a draw on Saturday in their 2-2 result at Fortuna Dusseldorf.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was another frustrating result for the Red Bulls who have settled for seven draws in their last eleven matches despite not losing any of those league contests. RB Leipzig has scored thirteen goals in their five matches since the return to action last month. But while they have surrendered the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga, they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The defensive cohesion of this team will be stretched for this contest after center back Dayot Upamecano being suspended for this match after he was issued a red card in that draw with Paderborn. Look for the Red Bulls’ scoring attack led by Timo Werner to be their catalyst for this match. RB Leipzig has scored 27 goals in their last thirteen matches — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals (xG) scored. This team also leads the Bundesliga in xG when playing away from home this season after finding the back of the net nine times in their two matches on the road since the return to play. Hoffenheim reacted to their loss on Saturday by sacking their manager Alfred Schreuder. Disagreements in philosophy were explained as the reason for his firing with ownership frustrated with the underwhelming attack coming from this side. Die Kraichgauer has seen thirteen different players score this season but they are just tied for 9th place in the league in goals scored. The tactics for this match should see Hoffenheim play with even more aggressive and attacking flourish. They will also benefit from the return to the pitch of Andrej Kramaric who was a sub on Saturday after being out since March with an injury. Kramaric leads the team with seven goals this year. But the increased emphasis on scoring tactics will place even more pressure on the Die Kraichgauer defense that ranks 7th in the Bundesliga with the highest expected goals allowed (xGA). When playing at home, Hoffenheim has allowed the 4th most goals which are right-in-line with their 4th highest xGA on their home pitch at Rhein-Neckar-Arena. To compound matters, they will be without their captain and center back Benjamin Hubner quarterbacking their backline after he was issued a red card last Saturday in the 9th minute of that match. This spells trouble against RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim has allowed 39 goals this season inside the penalty area — and the Red Bulls have an XG of 27.60 this season in that area of the field. Die Kraichgauer has scored in ten of their last twelve matches at home so they should contribute to reaching the Over for this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann was the manager at Hoffenheim for the previous four seasons before getting banned by the Red Bulls last summer — so he will understand the defensive talent of Die Kraichgauer. The Red Bulls won the last meeting between these two teams back on December 7th in their 3-1 victory in a game where the expected combined goals were 5.1. The last eight contests between these two sides have seen 29 combined goals. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-20 |
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Bayern Munich -2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
16 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). THE SITUATION: The DFB-Pokal Cup is the national championship of the German professional leagues and considered the second most prestigious championship to the Bundesliga title in Germany. Bayern Munich reached the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal back on March 3rd with their 1-0 win at FC Schalke 04. Eintracht Frankfurt joined them a day later with their 2-0 win at home against Werder Bremen in the quarterfinals of this event. Bayern Munich hosts this contest in their Allianz Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are cruising their way to their eighth straight Bundesliga title after defeating Bayer Leverkusen on the road on Saturday by a 4-2 score. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since manager Hansi Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is now W23-D1-L2 in their twenty-six matches under Flick in all competitions. Since the return to action last month, the Bavarians have won all five of their matches while scoring 17 goals and allowing just four goals while facing two of the top four teams in the Bundesliga in Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. They now host this match where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with nine victories. The Bavarians have averaged 5.0 goals per game in their two matches at home since the return to acton while conceding only two goals. While asking even the best of teams to win by at least three goals is asking a lot, there are a few unique circumstances that make a Bayern Munich blowout likely. Their two strikers, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller will be suspended for their Bundesliga match this weekend after both received their fifth yellow cards of the season last week in league play. Flick will likely keep both players on the pitch for most if not all of this match since they will be unavailable for the weekend. Flick also has his star central midfielder back in Thiago who has missed time with a groin strain. The Spaniard is one of the best passers in the world — and he has gelled with Kimmich since the later was moved up into the midfield. Eintracht Frankfurt looks to bounce-back from a bad 2-0 loss at home to FSV Mainz 05 last Saturday. The expected goals project had Mainz scoring 3.23 xG while allowing just 0.44 xGA — so that result could have been even worse. Die Adler is safe from relegation in the German top flight but they are in the bottom half of the table tied for 11th place. They have lost three of their six matches since the return to action while allowing 14 goals in those games. They have surrendered 22 goals in their last eight matches. They go back on the road where they have been miserable with ten losses in their fifteen league contests. To compound matters, this team will be missing some key pieces for this showdown. Serbian winger, Filip Kostic, is suspended for this match after getting tabbed with a four-game suspension in Eintracht Frankfurt’s last DFB-Pokal match in March. Die Adler is also dealing with two injuries with their leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes both dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance Bayern Munich will take this match lightly since Eintracht Frankfurt defeated them by a 5-1 score back on November 2nd which was the final straw for their previous manager Niko Kovac. The Bavarians got their revenge from that loss on May 23rd with a 5-2 win at home against Die Adler — but Flick’s team will remember that half the goals they have allowed since the return to action came in that match. This is a single-elimination match so there is no consolation for a close loss — meaning Eintracht Frankfurt will need to be more aggressive if and when they fall behind in this match. Expect a blowout with Lewandowski and Muller likely to be on the pitch for a long time given they are suspended their next league match. 25* Soccer ESPN Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-20 |
Hertha Berlin +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Their expected goal differential of +0.79 net xG is 4th best in the league over that span. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch. While scoring just 1.31 expected goals (xG) and surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has averaged 2.03 xGF and allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches with an impressive +1.11 expected goal differential under Labbadia’s stewardship. Two additions in the transfer window have also played a big role for this side with Matheus Cunha and Krzysztof Piatek. While Cunha is a doubt to play this week as he deals with a concussion, that should ensure that Piatek starts up top alongside captain Vedad Ibisevic. The pricey Polish star from AC Milan scored the final goal in their win over Augsburg last week in the third minute of extended time after 90 minutes had passed. Hertha Berlin has scored at least two goals in six straight matches while tallying 16 goals over that span. They go back on the road where they have not lost in seven matches which includes an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig two matches ago. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. That match was before the arrivals of Labbadia as manager along with Cunha and Piatek as transfers — and while Cunha may not play in this match, the betting market has not caught up to the dramatic improvements Die Alte Dame has made in the second half of the season. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. Now they go back on the road where they are W7-D3-L4 while going unbeaten in their last five matches with three victories and two draws while posting a net expected goals margin of +3.87 in those contests. Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 2nd in the Bundesliga with only 15 goals allowed in their fourteen league matches away from home. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. Since returning to play last month, they are W0-D2-L2 while scoring just four times. The advanced metrics indicate this is the most overvalued team in Bundesliga. While they are tied for 8th place with 38 points, their expected points (xPTS) plummets to just 13th in the league at 32.28. They have been outscored by three goals this season that betrays their record where they have won ten of their nineteen league matches — but their expected goals net differential of -17.73 screams of regression. They have averaged just 1.00 expected goals scored over their last ten matches with that mark dropping to just 0.70 xG over their four matches since the return from quarantine which is the worst mark in the Bundesliga. Now they stay at home where they have lost five of their last seven matches. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed at home in the Black Forest which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches yet they have a -5.94 net expected goals margin in those contests. This maneuver has not sparked this team. In their 557 minutes playing in a 4-4-2, Freiburg is producing just a 0.90 xG mark — and they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense.
FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. The Foals then won both friendlies between these two clubs on successive days in early January. With Borussia Monchengladbach needing to win this match to maintain their Champions League aspirations next year, expect them to pull out the victory on the road in an empty stadium. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. 1. FC Koln OVER 3.25 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W15-D10-L3) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. FC Koln (W10-D4-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at Hoffenheim last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in their last nine matches — but they have only secured three victories over that span. They have scored eight times in their three matches since the return to action in May — and they have the highest expected goal (xG) mark in the league over that span. They have also scored 22 goals over their last eleven matches. The Red Bulls are 3rd in the league with 70 goals scored — and their expected goals mark is 2nd best in the Bundesliga. They also have the most expected goals when playing on the road. RB Leipzig is also an excellent defensive team but they will be without starting left full-back Marcel Halstenberg who is suspended for this match. Koln has allowed seven goals in their three matches since the return of play. The Billy Goats have been inconsistent in these games perhaps not fully motivated since they are mired in the middle of the standings — safe from relegation but unlikely to be able to move up to the 6th spot to qualify for the Europa League next year. Koln blew a two-goal lead in their opening match against Mainz before rallying from a two-goal deficit as a home favorite to eke out a 2-2 draw with lowly Fortuna Dusseldorf. Then on Wednesday, the Billy Goats fell behind by a 3-0 score before getting their offense going — and they ended that match with an xG of 2.24. And despite scoring only four goals in their three matches in May, they ranked 2nd in the Bundesliga with 7.4 expected goals (2.56 xG/match) which is second only to RB Leipzig in that metric.
FINAL TAKE: FC Koln will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig back on November 23rd. Their attacker, Cordoba, has scored nine of his 11 goals at home this season while RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner has scored 14 of his 24 goals on the road. Expect a wild, higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Monday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-20 |
Borussia Dortmund v. SC Paderborn 07 UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund (W21-D4-L4) enters this match looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Tuesday. Paderborn (W4-D7-L14) is winless in their last nine matches after pulling out a nil-nil draw at Augsburg on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Borussia Dortmund was stymied by the Bayern Munich defense as they registered a low 0.57 expected goal (xG) mark in their loss on Tuesday which dropped them to 7 points out of first place. Look for the BVB to be flat in this match. This team’s scoring prowess has declined significantly as of late even before playing the Bavarians. While Borussia Dortmund ranks 2nd to them with 74 goals scored, their expected goals on the season based on the deeper analytics plummets to just 52.68 which not only ranks just 5th in the league but also represents the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected goals. So this team was due a visit from the Regression Gods — and it appears these deities have made their presence known since the return to play this month. The Black-Yellows have scored only six combined goals over their three May matches — and yet their expected goals in these games translate into just 2.78 xGF over those contests for a microscopic 0.93 xGF per match. Regression only explains part of that massive drop off. Jordan Sancho plays a critical part in the offensive attack — but the 20-year old did not respond to self-quarantine in the same way many older professionals have. Sancho returned this month lacking so much fitness that manager Lucien Favre has chosen not to start him. Sancho did substitute in the second half against Bayern Munich on Tuesday but he is a step or two slow which neutralizes the dynamic skillset he displayed earlier in the season. To compound matters for this team’s offensive attack, not only have then been without captain Marcos Reus on their forward line but they will now be without 19-year old forward phenom Erling Haaland who is now out with a knee injury. Borussia Dortmund has seen a steady improvement in their defensive play in the second half of the season. BVB has clean sheets in two of their last three matches along with five of their last seven. They have limited their last eight opponents to just 0.87 expected goals. They go on the road where they rank tied for 9th with 23 goals allowed — but their xGA away from home improves to the 3rd best ranking in the Bundesliga. Paderborn may be in last place in the German top flight but they have pulled out three draws in their three matches since the return of play while generating two clean sheets and allowing only one goal. But they have only scored one time over that span of three matches. Manager Steffen Baumgart had his team playing a direct style which would go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league — but quarantine must have had him hit the tape because his group has played very cautiously since returning to the pitch. In their three matches this month, Paderborn had held their opponents to just 1.12 expected goals per match which are far below their 1.86 xGA for the season. But they are averaging only 1.00 expected goals this month — and they have a low 0.82 xG mark over their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will struggle to score in this match — not only do they rank 16th in the league in expected goals at home (versus being tied for 12th in actual goals at home) and they host a Dortmund side that are tied in 9th in goals allowed on the road but who rank 3rd in xGA in goals against away from home. 25* Bundesliga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
FC Augsburg v. Hertha Berlin -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W9-D8-L11) enters this match coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L13) comes off a nil-nil draw at home to Paderborn on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Hertha Berlin showed no fear in traveling to Red Bull Arena to face an RB Leipzig side that the Expected Goals (xG) analytics ranks as the second-best team in the Bundesliga. The metrics for that match on Wednesday projected that Die Alte Dame should have defeated RB Leipzig by a 1.74 to 0.58 margin based on the empirical data from the quality and quantity of shots for both teams in that match. This Hertha Berlin team is much better than their record indicates at this point of the season. Die Alte Dame began the year with high expectations with a talented roster along with a high profile new manager in former USNMT skipper Jurgen Klinsmann. But Klinsmann was sacked in February over conflicts with ownership regarding the direction of this franchise. Hertha Berlin was very aggressive in the January transfer window as they brought in two talented strikers in Krzysztof Piatek and Matheus Cunha. While Piatek was the more glamorous and expensive signing coming over from AC Milan, Cunha has so far made the bigger impact on the pitch with four goals in his seven matches for his new team. Die Alte Dame also replaced interim manager Alexander Nouri who took over for Klinsmann with Bruno Labbadia in April during the stoppage of play. Labbadia has led his team to two wins and that draw at RB Leipzig earlier this week while scoring 9 goals while producing two clean sheets. Hertha Berlin is now unbeaten in their last five matches while scoring at least five goals in all those contests with the new talent at forward jumpstarting their offense. This team begins the day in 10th place in the German top-flight table while being 7 points out of 6th place which is necessary to qualify for next year’s Europa League. Yet this team is playing with as much momentum as any team in the league under their new manager as they continue to gain cohesion and build for next year. Augsburg may be lacking motivation with them being ranked 12th in the table — 4 points above relegation but even farther away from the 6th place Europa slot. Fuggerstadter has generated only 11 points over their last thirteen matches — and they have won only twice in their last ten games. Augsburg only picked up 1 point on Wednesday against a Paderborn side that is in the basement in the Bundesliga — and the xG projected a loss by a 1.25-0.84 margin in that contest so they were probably fortunate with the draw. They did snap a five-game losing streak on the road last weekend when they defeated Schalke — but that opponent is mired in a terrible ten-match winless streak as they spiral in the wrong direction. A good case can be made that Fuggerstadter has benefited from playing the two worst teams in the league right now over their last two contests. Finding offense has been the biggest problem as they have scored only seven combined goals over their last eight matches — and they were held scoreless in four of those contests. Forward Florian Niederlechner is the team’s leading scorer but he has been blanked in eight straight matches. They go back on the road where they have only scored three times in their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin will have the extra motivation in this contest to avenge a 4-0 loss at Augsburg back on November 24th. Fuggerstadter was playing much better in the fall — and it is now Die Alte Dame that is playing with much better form. 25* Bundesliga Match of the Month with the Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Werkself may have been ripe for an emotional letdown after they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach on the road by a 3-1 score to seize 4th place in the standings. But the loss on Tuesday dropped them back into 5th place which is one position outside on qualifying for next season’s Championship League. Bayer Leverkusen had been playing great — they had won nine of their last eleven matches while being unbeaten in twelve straight matches before suffering the upset earlier this week. But with still plenty to play for, manager Peter Bosz’s squad should respond with a strong effort. Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. Bayer Leverkusen has won nine of their fifteen matches on the road in league play — their 28 points away from home is tied for the second-most in the German top flight. Freiburg is the most overachieving side in the Bundesliga — while they are 8th on the table with 38 points, their expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed numbers drop to the 5th lowest in the league. Freiburg has only won one match in their last seven matches and just three times in 2020 — and they have won only four of their last sixteen contests. They were very fortunate to escape with the one point for their draw on Tuesday since the expected goal metric projected that they should have allowed 4.38 goals to Frankfurt while scoring just 0.82 goals — so they were graded with the most fortunate result last week. They had a 3-1 lead in the match ending the final 11 minutes of regulation before surrounding two goals in the next three minutes in settling for the draw. By the end of the match, they had allowed a whopping 21 shots with 13 of them being on target. It is luck on their end of the pitch which has been the biggest reason why they are over-performing their deeper metrics. While Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed, their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw on November 23rd — but Freiburg remains winless in their last five matches against Beyer Leverkusen. Only earning 1 point in that contest should ensure they do not take Freiburg lightly in this reverse fixture. Coming off the upset loss, look for Die Werkself to respond with a strong effort. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Month with the Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
SC Paderborn 07 v. FC Augsburg OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). THE SITUATION: Paderborn (W4-D6-L17) eked out their second straight draw since the return of play in the German top flight with their 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim last Saturday. Augsburg (W8-D6-L13) snapped a six-match winless streak on Sunday when they defeated Schalke on the road by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paderborn has received a burst of energy from forward Dennis Srbeny who has scored four of his team's last five goals with his strike on Saturday. This team has scored in nine of their last eleven matches with an exciting direct style-of-play under manager Steffen Baumgart who has his team go toe-to-toe with the top-level sides in the league. Paderborn is not going to park the bus in the back — especially when they are in last place in the Bundesliga and desperate for the three points that come with a victory. Paderborn has also conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of the match in fourteen of their twenty-seven league matches this season — so they are frequently playing from behind. They have surrendered 55 goals this season which is the third most in the German top flight. Furthermore, Paderborn has only had four clean sheets in four of their last twenty-five matches — and they have pulled this feat off just once in their last eight contests. Augsburg has seen at least three combined goals scored in their first two matches since the return of play. They return home where they are 7th in the Bundesliga with 25 goals scored. They have scored at least one goal in twelve of their last thirteen matches in their WMK Arena — and eleven of their last twelve home matches have gone Over 2.5 combined goals scored. Florian Niederlechner may be due to score in this match as he has not found the back of the net in seven straight matches despite being the team’s leading scorer. Augsburg has also allowed the fourth-most goals in the Bundesliga at a 2.0 goals allowed per game rate.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will be looking to avenge a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg back on November 9th. The Fuggerstadter also employ an open style of play — so Paderborn should get plenty of scoring chances in this match. Augsburg is tied for 12th place in the table which puts them 6 points above the relegation zone. So while the Fuggerstadter are probably safe, they will still be looking to increase their home winning streak against Paderborn to fourteen straight matches. 25* Bundesliga Midweek Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf v. 1. FC Koln -0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D3-L13) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 2-2 draw at home to FSV Mainz. Fortuna Dusseldorf (W5-D8-L13) also comes off a draw in their nil-nil results at home versus SC Paderborn last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: FC Koln was frustrated last week after blowing a 2-0 lead in that game. But this is still a side moving in the right direction having won eight of their last twelve matches outright. The Billy Goats opened the season losing ten of their first fourteen league matches but now find themselves in the middle at the table in 10th place and likely safe from relegation. This team has improved in the second half of the season with the acquisition of forward Mark Uth on loan from Schalke who has since scored five times while adding four assists in his eight matches with the team. FC Koln is projected as the 8th best team in the league when looking at the expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed this year. The Billy Goats had been playing better defense before the stoppage of play as they have allowed only three combined goals in their last four matches before surrendering two goals last week in the final 30 minutes of that contest. FC Koln has played much better at home lately as well with only one loss in their last five league contests to the first-place Bayern Munich. They have also generated 10 points in their last five home matches with three outright victories. Fortuna Dusseldorf may be demoralized after last week as they hit three posts in their scoreless draw with Paderborn. That was a crucial opportunity for Die Flingeraner to get themselves out of the relegation zone against the last-place team. Now they still find themselves 4 points out of 15th place. While Fortuna Dusseldorf has allowed 50 goals this season which is the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga, they are the bottom team in the league in expected goals allowed. They are also the second-worst team in the Bundesliga in expected points when playing on the road. To compound matters, this team will be without a key piece to their defense with Kaan Ayaan suspended for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card last week.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation is a concern for FC Koln with them seemingly safe from relegation but still 6 points out of 6th place which is the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. But the Billy Goats have the opportunity to avenge a 2-0 loss to Fortuna Dusseldorf back on November 3rd which was a match played amidst their dreary start to the season. Getting the bad taste out of their mouth from blowing a two-goal lead is the other motivating factor for this contest. The analytics indicate there is a significant difference between these two sides. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS1-TV Match of the Year with the FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Monchengladbach OVER 3 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W15-D5-L6) has won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in their last six games after their 4-1 win at Werder Bremen on Monday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D4-L6) has lost just once in their last eight matches after they dispatched of Eintracht Frankfurt on the road by a 3-1 score last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be an entertaining — and high-scoring — contest between two teams fighting for one of the four slots to qualify for the Champions League next season. Both of these engage in aggressive tactics on the pitch. Bayer Leverkusen is currently in 5th place in the German top-flight table just 2 points behind Borussia Monchengladbach who is in 3rd place. Die Werkself is led by a 20-year old sensation Kai Havertz who is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the pitch given his agility along with his 6’2 size. He is destined to be the next great number #10 position player for the German national team for at least the next two World Cup cycles. Manager Peter Bosz did have Havertz playing more of a defensive position in the first half of the season given the loss in the offseason of Julian Brandt who contributed seven goals last season. But Bosz has pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in the second half of the season — and Bayer Leverkusen has responded by scoring 14 goals over their last four matches. Their defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed goals in five of their last six matches along with ten of their last twelve contests. They only have three clean sheets on the road in league play this season — and they rank just 10th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. Borussia Monchengladbach has scored nine goals in their last four matches which have helped them rank 4th in the league in goals scored — and they rise to 3rd in the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) scored. Their match with Eintracht Frankfurt was a wild one as they attempted 17 shots while allowing their opponents to launch 14 shots. Their ability to suppress scoring opportunities is hampered right now with their start holding midfielder in Denis Zakaria out for at least another month after he had knee surgery during the recent stoppage of play. Borussia Monchengladbach is just 7th in the league in goals allowed when playing at home — but they fall to 9th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed when playing on their home pitch. But on the other hand, this team has scored in a dozen straight league matches at home (after blanking in their opening home match this season) — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals scored at home.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen is looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home o Borussia Monchengladbach back on November 2nd. Both teams should get on the board in this match with a high likelihood that at least four combined goals will be scored in this contest. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-20 |
Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). THE SITUATION: Union Berlin (W9-D3-L14) returned to action in the German top flight with a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday. Hertha Berlin (W8-D7-L11) defeated Hoffenheim on the road last Saturday by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Union Berlin did a good job of keeping mighty Bayern Munich in check as the first-place team in Bundesliga had a goal expectation of just 1.35 (xG) from their tactics on the pitch — and one of their goals was scored from a penalty kick. But Union Berlin embraced defensive tactics for most of this match with their top scorer unavailable for that match. Forward Sebastian Andersson had been injured before the stoppage in play for COVID-19 — and while he was available on the bench for this match, manager Urs Fischer decided he was not yet fit for action. Andersson has scored 11 times this season which accounts for 43% of the scoring for Die Eisernen this season — but he should be back on the pitch for this local Berlin derby. This is the maiden season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin — and Fischer’s team has generated fourteen goals via set pieces this year. This team overachieved on defense last week as they have allowed the sixth-most goals on the road in the league this season — and they also rank 6th for the highest xGA when playing away from home. Union Berlin has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches — and they have allowed ten combined goals in their last four contests. To compound matters, Die Eisernen will be undermanned on their backline with defenseman Kevin Schlotterbeck suspended for this match after picking up his fifth yellow card this season on Sunday. Hertha Berlin has seen an uptick in their offensive attack in the second half of the season after making two important moves in the winter transfer window. Die Alt Dame signed Krzysztof Piatek from AC Milan and Matheus Cunha from RB Leipzig to completely transform their forward line. Hertha Berlin has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches while finding the back of the bet at least twice in those three contests. Cunha has scored three goals while adding an assist in his five matches with his new club. And while Piatek did not play on Saturday, he was replaced by team captain Vedad Ibisevic with the 35-year old veteran scoring one of the team’s two goals Cunha. Die Alte Dame plays an entertaining open style of play which has seen plenty of goals from both sides as of late. Over their last six matches, 25 combined goals have been scored. Hertha Berlin has allowed the fourth-most goals when playing at home at the Olympiastadion — and the expected goals they have allowed at home (xGA) is also the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga. They do come off a clean sheet win on the road last week — but the xGA for that match was over 3.0 so they were very fortunate to see that result. Expect an appearance from the Regression Gods on Friday when it comes to the defensive results for this team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have scored in four of their last five meetings in this rivalry. Hertha Berlin’s 31 points put them one point ahead of Union Berlin for 11th place in the German top-flight table. With both teams probably safe from relegation but too far removed from the sixth place necessary to qualify for the next Europa League, the only thing at stake in this match is bragging rights. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
SC Freiburg v. Lokomotive Leipzig -1.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-137 |
31 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (202405). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D8-L3) returns to the pitch after a two-month absence from action given the stoppage of play in the Bundesliga from the Coronavirus. They last played on March 10th when they dominated Tottenham by a 3-0 score in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the European Championship by an aggregate 4-0 score. Freiburg (W10-D6-L9) last played on Match 7th when they defeated Union Berlin by a 3-1 score.
REASONS TO LAY THE GOAL-LINE WITH RB LEIPZIG: Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team should be very motivated to play out the string of their Bundesliga matches. They currently sit in 3rd place in Germany’s top-flight league five points behind Bayern Munich in 1st place and just one point behind 2nd place Borussia Dortmund. This team also features several players who are in line for big paydays on the summer transfer market — so taking advantage of these matches which will have the attention of the world with the Bundesliga being the first major European soccer league returning to action could be very lucrative. Forward Timo Werner is being rumored to have the interest of Liverpool while midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has been possibly linked to both Liverpool and Arsenal. Werner has 21 goals this season with another 8 assists. RB Leipzig also has a dynamic attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku leads the Bundesliga with 65 scoring chances — and his 4.05 scoring chances per 90 minutes average this season is the second-best of all players in the top-five European professional leagues. But the strength of manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is on defense. RB Leipzig is tied for tops in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed. This team has allowed only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have registered six clean sheets in their last seven matches overall. Consistent play on the defensive side of the pitch is the characteristic that I suspect will carry over after the long layoff. Freiburg has just three victories in 2020 despite defeating Union Berlin in their last match. They are led by Nils Petersen — but their top-scorer has not found the back of the net in his last eight league matches. Freiburg can struggle to create scoring chances so I expect them to struggle against this RB Leipzig side that is so good at shot suppression. They had scored only three goals in their previous five matches before their three-goal effort against Union Berlin. Freiburg has scored only 18 goals in their thirteen league matches on the road. And while they have conceded 21 goals in their thirteen matches away from home in Bundesliga, the deeper metrics indicate that they expected goals they should have allowed jumps to 28.32. RB Leipzig is in 8th place in the league with 36 points — but the analytics projects regression with their net xG of only 28.79 points entering this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig hosts this match at their Red Bull Arena where they are W7-D4-L1 in league play this season. While there will not be fans for this contest given social distancing guidelines, I am still assigning advantages to the home team given the familiarity of their arena along with not having to travel for this match. RB Leipzig will also have revenge on their mind after losing at Freiburg by a 2-1 score back on October 26th. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202405). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. Norwich City |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D6-L17) comes off a 3-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is a get-right game for the Foxes. Leicester has not scored in their last two matches and their best attacker, Jamie Vardy, has not scored in seven straight matches. The team really missed Wilfried Ndidi in the midfield who has been the glue of this team. But the Foxes have also endured a challenging schedule as of late in the English Premier League with their previous matches being against a solid Wolverhampton side that is playing their best soccer of the season along with Chelsea. Leicester City has thrived against the non-Power Six sides in the EPL this season: they are W13-D3-L2 in those contests while scoring 45 goals and conceding just 12 times in those eighteen matches. The Foxes have also been capable when playing on the road where they are W7-D2-L4 in thirteen matches while scoring 28 times and conceding just 12 goals. Vardy is unquestionably out of form but he has been a reliable striker for many years who should eventually get it going again — and he is getting chances. Manager Brendan Rodgers has plenty of capable goal scorers in his starting XI including Harvey Barnes who has scored three goals in the last five weeks along with Ayoze Perez who recently registered a brace and Touri Tielemans who has two assists in 2020. And those names fail to mention the Foxes’ second best offensive player in James Maddison who is also enduring a slump. Norwich City may be just what the doctor ordered for Leicester City. Wolverhampton battered them last week with 19 shot attempts with 13 of them in the box and five big chances that correlated with an Expected-Goals scored metric above the three goals that they scored against the porous Canaries defense. The 51 goals that Norwich has allowed this season is the second most in the EPL — and the 26 goals they have allowed at home is also the second most in the league. The Canaries have lost three of their last four matches in EPL action while failing to score in three straight games. Over their last fourteen EPL matches, they are just 1-5-8 which is why they are in the basement of the standings. Since relegation is likely for this team, they should play this match aggressively since they are desperate for victories with the 3 points they accrue.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance of Leicester City taking this team lightly since they settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw with them back on December 14th at home in their first meeting. The Foxes are the better team — and they need the victory to jumpstart their season where they hope to qualify in the top four for the Champions League for next season. Leicester City prefers opponents like the Canaries who play with a more open style of play — and, remember, that they had scored 54 goals over a twenty-four match span (while being blanked just once) before their recent two-game slide. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
West Ham United v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D6-L14) returns to the pitch after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City back on February 19th. Liverpool (W25-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on February 15th in their last English Premier League match.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is playing outstanding defense after a shaky start to the season. The Reds have produced ten clean sheets in their last eleven games while allowing a mere one goal over that span in English Premier League action. The insertion of Joe Gomez into their defensive backline has certainly helped. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has also gotten his group to play a bit more conservatively with an emphasis on defensive tactics after starting the season where they were an offensive juggernaut. The Reds’ offensive attack has been moderated as of late as they have not scored more than two goals in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has also scored two goals or less in seven of their last ten matches at home. The team lost an important piece to their midfield last Tuesday in their loss to Atletico Madrid in Champions League play with Jordan Henderson suffering a hamstring injury. Look for the Reds to play a bit more cautiously this afternoon to compensate for his absence on the pitch. West Ham parked the proverbial bus last Saturday in their 2-0 loss to Manchester City. Manager David Moyes will likely deploy the same strategy in this contest with the Hammers trying to fight off relegation. Goal differential could play a role in staving off a return to England’s Champions League so West Ham will not begin to play more aggressively if they fall behind by a goal or two. Moyes will be relatively happy with a 2-0 loss so that the Hammers do not get dinged too badly with the goal differential tie-breaker. West Ham had only three shots against Man City with none of them on target. They have scored only five goals in their last six contests with three of them coming in a 3-3 draw against Brighton. West Ham has scored only 10 goals on the road this season in the EPL which is the second lowest amount in the league. The Hammers have seen 21 combined goals in their seven EPL matches against Big Six sides for a 3.0 combined goals per game average.
FINAL TAKE: There is a high likelihood that West Ham will not score in this match. These two teams played last month on January 29th where Liverpool won by a 2-0 score — and I see that result as the probable score this afternoon. Klopp will substitute early once this match is in hand to save the strength of his key players. With the Reds missing Henderson in the middle, I do not think their offensive attack will be clicking on all cylinders. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-59.5 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W24-D1-L0) won their sixteenth straight match in English Premier League play two Saturdays ago with their 4-0 win at home against Southampton. Norwich City (W4-D6-L15) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle back on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are clicking on all cylinders with it seeming inevitable that they will capture the EPL crown this season. Liverpool is unbeaten in their last forty-two EPL matches. While some teams might go on auto-pilot at this point of the season, that is unlikely to happen to this Reds team with them chasing the EPL all-time record set by Arsenal in 2004 with their forty-nine game unbeaten streak. Instead, this Liverpool team is rested from the week off while getting healthy again with both Sadio Mane and James Milner both fit to take the pitch again. The Reds have an important Champions League match on deck next week against Atletico Madrid — but with last week off, I expect the manager Jurgen Klopp to get his best players on the pitch for this match to get them back into game shape. Liverpool has dominated the lesser teams in the league this season as they have won all eighteen of their matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 46 goals and conceding just ten times. Nine of those victories have been on the road where they have scored 25 goals against non-Big Six sides while allowing just six goals. After a slow start on defense this season, Liverpool has been very stingy as of late as they have registered nine clean sheets in their last ten matches while conceding just one goal over that span. The insertion of Joe Gomez in their backline has correlated with the improved play. The issue may come down to whether or not Liverpool scores twice in this contest. The Reds have scored at least two goals in fourteen of their last sixteen EPL contests. Furthermore, Liverpool has won eight of their last eleven matches by at least two goals — and they have won three of their last five matches on the road by at least two goals. Norwich City is winless in their last thirteen EPL matches with eleven of those contests being outright defeats. While the Canaries have registered two clean sheets in their last three matches, they have also scored only two goals in their last four contests after suffering a 4-0 loss at Manchester United. Norwich City is at the bottom of the table while being at severe risk of being relegated. Yet Klopp will have an easy sell to his squad to not have his group take this team lightly since they have defeated Manchester City at home while earning draws with Tottenham and Chelsea. The 47 goals that the Canaries have surrendered this season is the tied for the second most in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six EPL matches at Norwich City with 25 combined goals in those contests where they scored at least two goals in each game. With such a talent disparity between the Reds and the promoted Canaries from the Champions League last year — and with Liverpool motivated to break Arsenal’s unbeaten record — look for a decisive victory. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-4D4-L6) returns to English Premier League action after their 2-2 draw with Chelsea back on February 1st. Wolverhampton (W8-D11-L6) comes off a 0-0 draw at Manchester United on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has come back to earth after a outstanding stretch in the fall where they won ten of eleven EPL matches. The Foxes have won only three times in their last nine matches since that golden run. Some of the problem was the typical visit from the Regression Gods after outperforming their underlying statistics. Leicester City also enjoyed a favorable group of opponents during that autumn stretch before things got more challenging in December and January. But the biggest concern for this team has been the decline of their play on defense. The Foxes have allowed 16 goals over their last nine matches with too many of them occurring from within six feet. The team missed defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi who missed last month with a leg injury — and after suffering a setback in training he will miss this match this afternoon. Leicester City has seen at least three combined goals scored in each of their last eight matches. Forward Jamie Vardy has also seen his production decline after a torrid start as he has not scored in five straight EPL matches. Vardy was averaging a Lionel Messi-like 4 shots per game at his peak during that eleven match run for the Foxes — he has averaged just 1 shot per game since that run. Vardy is wily veteran who should break out of this scoring slump. Leicester City has still scored 13 goals in their last six matches even with Vardy’s slump. The Foxes have also seen their last five road matches all see at least three combined goals where they have scored eleven goals over that span. Leicester City has scored 28 times in their twelve road matches this EPL season. They also have scored 45 times in their seventeen matches against non-Power Six clubs — and they have scoed 25 goals in their eight road matches against non-Power Six sides this EPL season. Wolverhampton produced their first clean sheet in their last ten EPL matches to begin the month. That was also just their second EPL match since the opening game of the season where they were held scoreless. The Wolves have scored or conceded a goal in a league high nineteen matches this season — so the odds are very high that the we will be looking at a 1-1 score (or better for our Over) at one point in this contest. Wolverhampton has seen three of their last four home matches see at least three combined goals scored. They have surrendered 18 goals in their sixteen matches against non-Power Six sides. The Wolves have also allowed the 8th most goals when playing at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton has won their last two opportunities to host Leicester City in English Premier League action by respective 4-3 scores. Expect both teams to score with at least one side scoring at least twice which will be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W22-D1-L0) has won fourteen straight matches in English Premier League action with their 2-1 win at Wolverhampton last Thursday. West Ham (W6-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 4-1 loss at Leicester City last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big news for the Reds is that they will be missing their star midfielder, Sadio Mane, who injured his hamstring in the match against the Wolves which will keep him out for (at least) their next two EPL contests. But this Liverpool team remains loaded led by Mo Salah in the middle of the pitch along with Robert Firmino up top. Since the start of the 2017-18 EPL season, Salah has scored 14 goals with 11 assists. Salah has also scored six goals with two assists in his last four EPL matches when playing without Mane. Expect this team to step up in Mane’s absence to be play a very focused match as they look to continue their historic campaign. The Reds’ defensive backline remains in tact for this match — they had racked up seven straight clean sheets in EPL action before Wolverhampton scored on them last week. Most of the key starters did not play on Sunday in Liverpool’s 2-2 draw in FA Cup action at Shrewsbury Town — so the players on the pitch today should be rested. And while the FA Cup is not at the forefront of the team’s championship goals this season, they should be feisty to get back to their winning ways in this one. The Reds have won seven of their last fourteen EPL matches by more than one goal. They are W10-D1-L0 on the road in the EPL this season where they have scored 23 times while conceding just six times. Liverpool also takes care of business against the lesser teams in the EPL as they are a perfect W16-D0-L0 against non-Power Six sides while averaging 2.5 Goals-Per-Game in those contests and conceding just 10 times for a 0.62 Goals-Per-Game allowed rate. Eight of those victories against non-Power Six sides have been on the road where they are averaging 2.4 Goals-Per-Game while allowing just just 0.5 Goals-Per-Game. West Ham was crushed by Leicester City despite the Foxes not playing with Jamie Vardy for half that game when he left the pitch with an injury with the score just 1-0. The Hammers have been dealing with injuries — they hope to get back midfielder Robert Snodgrass and goaltender Lukasz Fabianksi for this contest. But midfielder Felipe Anderson will likely miss this game again with his injury which leaves the West Ham offensive attack limited. The Hammers have scored only two combined goals in their last three games — and they have only scored more than one goal in a match just once in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has upset Manchester United by a 2-0 score at home this season but that was their only victory in their four home matches against Power Six sides this season. They lost the other three matches at home — and they have been outscored by an 11 to 6 margin in those four matches at home against Power Six teams. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Liverpool v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W21-D1-L0) continued their historic run in the English Premier League this season with their 2-0 victory over Manchester United on Sunday. Wolverhampton (W8-D10-L5) comes off a 3-2 comeback victory at Southampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have now generated 18 points after finding themselves in a losing position in an EPL match this season — so don’t count out the Over if Liverpool takes an early lead in this game. Wolverhampton had a well-deserved reputation of being a defensive team last season in their first year back promoted to the EPL — but they are playing higher-scoring matches this season. The Wolves have seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last eight matches. Wolverhampton has a hot striker right now in Raul Jimenez who is in form after scoring two late goals against the Saints to rally his team to victory. The Wolves are 7th in the EPL with 34 goals this season — and they have been held scoreless only twice this season (with one of those matches being the opening match of the season). In their four home matches against Power Six sides this season at Molineux, Wolverhampton has scored seven times. But after being tied for 7th in the EPL in fewest goals allowed at home last season, the Wolves have allowed 15 goals in their eleven home matches this season which is just 13th stingiest in the league at home. Liverpool has registered seven straight clean sheets which will certainly make the Under attractive to many bettors. But the Reds backline looked shaky on Sunday against Manchester United as they were outshot by a 9 to 6 margin with their defenders looking a bit tired late in the match. Liverpool was underachieving for most of the first half of the season when it comes to stopping the opposing offensive attack. Perhaps what jumpstarted that group was the injury to Joel Matip which cleared space to Joe Gomez to take his spot to solidify the Reds’ back four. There has not been an EPL team to win nine straight matches with clean sheets since Manchester United pulled this feat off in February of 2009 — so history may not be on the side of a ninth straight clean sheet for the Reds this afternoon. With the goal-line dropping in many spots to Liverpool only being a -0.5 Goal-Line favorite, many bettors consider the Wolves a live dog. I prefer the wiser investment is redirecting that sentiment into the Over. We should not be surprised if Liverpool scores at least three goals in this match. The Reds have scored 38 times in their fifteen matches against non-Power Six sides this season. Liverpool has also scored 17 times in their seven road matches against non-Power Six clubs in the EPL this year for a 2.43 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did win the first meeting between these two teams at home in Anfield by 1-0 score. Sadio Mane scored in the 42nd minute of that match with the Reds settling in at home in the second half to earn the clean sheet. That was just the second time that the Wolves were held scoreless since the opening week of the season in August. Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eleven of their other twelve matches with another 1-0 win over Tottenham being the other exception. But remember that the Reds’ last two victories over Man United and then the Spurs were against teams without their best scoring attackers in Marcus Rashford and Harry Kane who are both dealing with injuries. I think the Wolves break the Liverpool clean sheet streak this afternoon (but a Liverpool 3-0 result would not be a surprise) — but the chance of a draw or outright upset for Wolverhampton being a higher likelihood than two or less combined goals being scored in this rematch. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
West Ham United v. Leicester -1 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W14-D3-L6) has lost two straight English Premier League matches with their 2-1 loss at Burnley on Sunday. West Ham (W6-D5-L11) comes off a 1-1 draw to Everton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes need a victory after dropping two straight games. This is a team that is a bit out of form — but the circumstances have been a bit strange as well. They took a 1-0 lead at Burnley on Sunday but surrendered two second half goals to lose that contest. Jamie Vardy also missed a penalty shot which would have likely resulted in the draw. Vardy is in a bit of a slump. After their disappointing 4-0 loss at home to Liverpool last month, Vardy then missed two matches to an ankle injury and then for the birth of his child. In his three EPL matches since returning to the pitch, Vardy has managed only three combined shots. Vardy still has 17 goals this season with 6 assists this season — and he has thrived under Brendan Rodgers leadership since he took over as manager last season. Leicester City was also without defender Ben Chilwell and midfielder Hamza Chaudhary after they missed a practice session before that match with Burnley but Rodgers expects them back for this match. The Foxes previous loss last week was at a surging Southampton side — so that is understandable. But Leicester City now finds themselves on both a two-game losing streak and a two-game slide at home at Kings Power Stadium after that loss to Liverpool. The Foxes had been on an W11-D3-L1 run at home — and the six goals they have allowed in their last two home matches is the same number of combined goals they had allowed in their previous thirteen matches at home. Leicester City remains a side that is W7-D2-L2 at home this season while scoring 20 goals an conceding just 11 times. The Foxes also thrive against the bottom teams in the EPL as they own a W12-D2-L2 record against non-Power Six sides while scoring 41 goals in those sixteen matches and conceding just 11 goals. West Ham is W1-D1-L1 since bringing back David Moyes as their manager to begin the new calendar year but they are still fighting off relegation with their mere 23 points which currently has them tied for second-to-last place on the EPL table. The concern for the Hammers is the Expected Goals metric translates into them predicted to have just 19.66 points at this point of the season — so they may actually be overachieving relative to their actions on the pitch. West Ham is W3-D3-L5 in their eleven matches on the road — but their 12 points in those matches far exceeds their Expected Goals prediction of just 7.57 points. The metrics suggest that the Hammers have been rather fortunate in only allowing 34 goals this season given their Expected Goals Allowed comes in at 41.18. Furthermore, while West Ham has allowed only 14 goals on the road, the Expected Goals Allowed away from home jumps to 22.72. The Hammers will not be at full strength for this game either. Their outstanding goalkeeper, Lukas Fabianski, is out with an injury while one of their most creative players on offense in midfielder Felipe Anderson is also out with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the initial meeting between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on December 28th. West Ham has five losses and one draw in their last six evening kickoffs in EPL play. And Rodgers has not seen three straight losses as a manager in the EPL since November 2014 when he was the skipper for Liverpool. This looks like a bounce-back match for Leicester City against a struggling and undermanned Hammers side. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-20 |
Newcastle United v. Everton UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-152 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W8-D5-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win over Chelsea on Saturday. Everton (W8-D5-L10) comes off a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton will be playing this match undermanned as they currently have been hit with the injury bug. Richarlison is dealing with a knee injury while fellow midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson has a groin injury. Both players did not play in the match against West Ham — and the team has also been without Alex Iwobi who has been out for over a month. The Toffees are getting nice play out of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin but he will not have much help on the pitch for this contest with all three of those injured players unlikely to return for this midweek match. Everton has scored just one goal in each of their last three matches. But this group has tightened things up on the other end of the pitch under new manager Carlo Ancelloti. The Toffees are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches since he took over in late December. They have allowed only four goals in those five contests. Furthermore, outside a 2-1 loss at Manchester City, they have allowed more than one goal just once in their last seven matches while registering three clean sheets during that span. Everton returns home for this match where they have scored just 13 times in their eleven matches — but they have only conceded 11 goals in those eleven matches. Newcastle has seen just three combined goals scored in their last two matches. The Magpies have scored only 22 goals this season which is tied for the third lowest in the English Premier League. In their last seven matches, Newcastle has not scored more than one goal in each contest while getting blanked twice during that span. The Magpies now go back on the road where they have scored only 10 times in their eleven matches. Over the last five games on the road, Newcastle has scored just four times while conceding eight goals — and four of those goals were in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Everton’s 2-1 win at Newcastle back on December 28th. The Toffees host this rematch — and they have seen only fourteen combined goals scored in their seven home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (12W-2D-4L) has won two straight English Premier League matches with their 3-1 win over Leicester City last Sunday. Wolverhampton (6W-9D-3L) comes off a 2-1 win at Norwich City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have scored in seventeen straight EPL matches so the chances are very good they will get on the board against the reigning EPL champions this afternoon. Wolverhampton has played three straight games where at least three combined goals were scored with them scoring five times while conceding five times during that span. And while this team has been know for their defensive prowess, they have only produced one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Wolverhampton has also scored four goals in their three home matches against a Power Six side this season — but they have surrender a whopping eight goals in those three home matches. Overall, the Wolves are 8th in the league with 26 goals. Manchester City leads the EPL with their 50 goals scored. They have scored three goals in each of their last two matches. The Citizens have also seen at least three combined goals scored in nine straight matches this season. Man City has taken a step back on defense this season as they have surrendered 20 goals already which is just 4th best. They have only produced one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Man City should have their star midfielder, Kevin DeBruyne available for this game after he suffered a knock last week. And while Sergio Aguero will not start this afternoon, he is working himself back into game shape after suffering an injury and might be called on as a sub. The Citizens have more than a capable second forward in Brazilian star Gabriel Jesus to use as their striker with KDB and Raheem Sterling also potent scoring threats. Man City has scored 41 goals in their thirteen matches against non-Power Six opponents. And in their seven road matches against non-Power Six foes, Man City is averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game while conceding more than one goal per game.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Wolves back on October 6th by a 2-0 score. They will not be blanked again. I think three combined goals is the worst case scenario with an outstanding chance that Man City scores at least three times (or Wolverhampton scores at least twice). 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-19 |
Liverpool v. Leicester +0.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (12W-3D-3L) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Liverpool (16W-1D-0L) take the pitch against English Premier League action since their 2-0 win over Watford back on December 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool had their Week 19 fixture pushed back due to their involvement in the Club World Cup in Qatar last week where they lifted the trophy after two relatively easy matches. But the Reds still traveled across the world to accomplish this task last week — and they certainly celebrated adding another trophy to their display case. The fact is that Liverpool would be absolutely thrilled with a one-goal victory while being quite content with a draw considering that they are 10 points ahead in the table over this second place Leicester City team. The Reds’ only blemish in EPL action this season is a 1-1 draw at Manchester United — so this team may be due for the proverbial letdown. The analytics naturally indicate that they are overachieving — the Expected Goal metric projects they should have 34.15 points at this point of the season as compared to their near perfect 49 points they have compiled in their first eighteen matches. Liverpool has also won eight straight matches in EPL play on the road — but xG analysis projects them overachieving with 22 points on the road as opposed to their 14.71 number. The Reds are also dealing with some injuries right now with the most significant being to midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain who suffered a knock last week in Qatar. Leicester City had won eight straight matches in EPL play before engaging in a disappointing 1-1 draw at home with Norwich City before last week’s loss at Man City. Those three goals they surrendered to the reigning EPL champions was as many as they had allowed in their last eight matches combined. Now they return home where they are unbeaten in nine matches with a 7W-2D-0L mark while scoring 19 goals and conceding just five times. First-year manager Brendan Rodgers has been just what this franchise needed since taking over last February. He has unleashed forward Jamie Vardy who has generated a scoring return in 10 straight matches while scoring at least one goal in nine of those EPL contests. Vardy also loves facing this Liverpool team. He missed last year’s home fixture with the Reds due to suspension but he had scored five combined goals in his previous three home matches against Liverpool. The Foxes have not lost to a Power Six EPL side at home since Rodgers took over the helm with three of those matches being outright victories. Leicester City has scored seven goals in those four home matches against a Power-Six side while conceding just two goals.
FINAL TAKE: With Boxing Day representing the midpoint of the season, this is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams on October 5th at Liverpool where the Reds defeated the Foxes by a narrow 2-1 score. Leicester City is catching Liverpool at perhaps an opportune time to where they could pull the upset — but at least a draw seems likely. 25* EPL Boxing Day Match of the Year with Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool -1 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (8W-1D-0L) saw their seventeen match winning streak in English Premier League action snapped last Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Manchester United. Tottenham (3W-3D-3L) comes off a listless 1-1 draw at home against Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: It looks like the nice run for the Spurs is slowing coming to the end. Tottenham is just in 10th place in the EPL standings with their 12 points. The cohesion with this team on the pitch appears to be fraying with the sam group of players still together over the last few years. Manager Mauricio Pachettino is rumored to be interested in the Real Madrid job where he will be managing a club that is more willing to spend on free agents. While the Spurs come off an easy 5-0 win in Champions League play over Crvena Zvezda during the week, the grind of the Champions League schedule over the last two seasons may be wearing on this team that has to rely on their superstars for both CL and EPL matches. This is a team that is particularly struggling on the road where they are winless with two draws and two losses this season while scoring five goals and conceding nine times. Tottenham has also thrived against the lesser teams in the EPL but have struggled against the top notch competition. Since the beginning of 2018-19 campaign, the Spurs are just 2W-3D-7L in their twelve matches against Big Six sides while scoring 14 times and conceding 19 goals. And in their last seven road matches against Big Six teams in the EPL, Tottenham is just 1W-2D-4L. Liverpool will be anxious to get a decisive win after seeing their perfect EPL campaign scathed with the draw last week at Manchester United. The Reds are very tough back at home at Anfield where they have won all four of their matches while outscoring these opponents by a 12 to 4 margin. Liverpool is 21W-2D-0L in their last twenty-three matches at home in EPL play. And in their last six matches at home against Big Six sides, the Reds have won five of those matches with just one draw while outscoring these opponents by a 15 to 4 margin.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham is without their top flight goaltender, Hugo Lloris, who is out the rest of 2019 with an injury. Liverpool is fully committed to winning the EPL championship after defeating Tottenham for the Champions League title last spring in those finals. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|