07-02-20 |
Getafe CF v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W14-D10-L8) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 2-1 win over Real Sociedad on Monday. Real Madrid (W21-D8-L3) has won all five of their matches since the return to action last month with their 1-0 win over Espanyol last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Getafe’s two goals on Monday almost eclipsed the three combined goals in their previous four matches. Manager Jose Bordalas has his team play a defense-first style of play supported by a sturdy backline led by center-back Djene. The Azulones have allowed just five goals in their five matches since the return to play. Getafe is 3rd in La Liga with fewest goals allowed — and they are surrendering just 1.13 expected goals per game. The Azulones are even stingier when playing on the road as the 15 goals they have allowed in fifteen league matches are tied for the second-fewest in the league. Getafe will likely park the proverbial bus against mighty Real Madrid — and Los Blancos are likely to be comfortable with that style of contest. Manager Zinedine Zidane is happy with his team playing pragmatically. Real Madrid has scored only five combined goals in their last three matches. But Los Blancos may have the best defensive team in all of Europe (we will learn more next month when the Champions League returns). Led by Sergio Ramos, Real Madrid’s backline does a very good job of conceding few chances. They have only allowed two goals since the return of play with three clean sheets in those five contests. Overall, they have surrendered just 21 goals this season which is the best number in La Liga. Eight of Los Blancos’ last eleven victories have been via a shutout — so a 1-0 or 2-0 final score is likely.
FINAL TAKE: Getafe will be looking to avenge a 3-0 loss at home to Real Madrid back on November 4th. The Azulones have not scored in their last three matches against Los Blancos. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-20 |
Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.25 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W13-D10-L8) comes off a 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last Wednesday in their last match in the English Premier League. Brighton (W7-D12-L12) registered a nil-nil draw in their last match last Thursday at Leicester City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United followed up their win over the Blades on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory at Norwich City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Saturday. Eight of the starters that played in that midweek match with Sheffield did not start o Saturday against the Canaries so manager Gunnar Solskjaer should have a relatively rested starting XI despite their busy schedule since the return to action this month. The Red Devils have scored five goals in their two EPL matches this month — and they have scored seven goals while allowing one goal in their three matches overall since the return. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary last Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Martial, Rashford, and Pogba did not start on Saturday so they should all be fresh for this match. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. The Red Devils have also been outstanding on defense with five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. But while they have surrendered just two goals in their last seven EPL matches, their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark over those seven games rises to a 7.3 xGA mark which strongly suggests they have been very fortunate in not surrendering more goals. Furthermore, much of their defensive prowess has taken place at Old Trafford where they have resisted five straight clean sheets. Man United has allowed nineteen of their thirty goals when playing on the road this season in EPL action. Brighton has lost just once in their last seven matches in EPL play. They return home where they have scored in five of their last six matches. The Seagulls will be a confident group when playing at the Amex where they have already pulled off upsets against Tottenham, Everton, and Arsenal while earning draws with Chelsea and Wolverhampton. In their three home matches against Big Six sides, Brighton has scored six times. The Seagulls have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 41 goals — but the deeper metrics suggest that both those numbers are unexpectedly low given their expected goals mark of 40.80 (xG) and their expected goals allowed (xGA) figure of 45.82. Brighton still has plenty to play for being only six points safe from relegation. Manager Graham Potter will open up his team’s style of play if they fall behind to attempt to salvage at least one point with the draw. They have an expected goals mark of 1.53 when playing at home — and they allow their opponents to register 1.33 xGA when at home.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton are dangerous dogs in this match (which is why I am passing on the side play) — I expect them to score on this Man United team that is not as stingy when playing on the road. But the Red Devils are clicking on offense now with their best talent finally all healthy. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams when they won by a 3-1 score back on November 10th. But Brighton has won their last two opportunities to host the Red Devils where they have scored four combined goals. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-20 |
Burnley v. Crystal Palace UNDER 2 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W12-D6-L13) rebounded from a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their return to action this month with a 1-0 win over Watford on Thursday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with a 4-0 loss at Liverpool.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley found their defensive acumen again on Thursday by limiting the Hornets to just 0.84 expected goals in that match. The Clarets are second in league with twelve clean sheets behind their underrated keeper Nick Pope. Burnley will have to lean again on their defensive cohesion in this game. Manager Sean Dyche is saddled with a host of injuries in their attack with forwards Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out and Jay Rodriguez questionable with a knock after he scored Burnley’s lone goal since the return to action on Thursday. The Clarets have scored only fourteen goals in their fifteen matches on the road this season. But they have allowed only sixteen goals in their twenty matches against non-Big Six sides this season for a microscopic 0.80 goals-per-game opponent scoring average. Crystal Palace had registered four straight clean sheets in EPL action before Liverpool dialed up four goals on Wednesday. The Eagles also play a defensive-oriented style for manager Roy Hodgson where things can get rough if they fall behind by more than one goal. It was apparent that is was going to be a long day for Hodgson when star midfielder Wilfried Zaha limped off the field with an injury that likely leaves him out for this match. Crystal Palace only managed three shots against the Reds with none inside the box for a microscopic 0.09 expected goals mark. It has now been thirty-one straight EPL matches where the Eagles did not score more than two goals. They have scored only twenty goals in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides — but they have given up its sixteen goals in those contests. They return home where they are last in the EPL with just twelve goals — but they have surrendered only thirteen goals which were tied for the second-lowest home mark to begin this match week 31. Furthermore, in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Eagles have scored only ten goals while allowing just eight goals for 0.83-0.67 average scoring marks.
FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won the last four meetings between these two teams while surrendering just one time after their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture back on November 30th. There is a good chance that at least one of these teams fails to score in this contest. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-20 |
Manchester City v. Newcastle United UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on March 4th when they defeated Sheffield Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Newcastle United punched their Quarterfinals ticket on March 3rd when they defeated West Brom on the road by a 3-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City will be playing their first match since officially being eliminated from defending their two-time English Premier League championship with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea on Thursday. Those are the only two goals that the Citizens have allowed in their three matches since the return of play this month. Man City leads the EPL by allowing just 1.01 expected goals per game this season — and their defense is much better with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte at center back leading their backline. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season (before the return to play this month), the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play, those numbers fell to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. With holding-midfielder Fernandinho suspended for this match after being issued a red card in that game with Chelsea on Thursday, I expect LaPorte to be in the starting XI this afternoon. Manager Pep Guardiola will likely choose his best players for this match with FA Cup and Champions League championships in August still goals this season. But Man City will be without their best attacking forward in Sergio Aguero who suffered an injury last week that may keep him out for the rest of the EPL season. While Gabriel Jesus is a capable replacement at forward after being rested in that Chelsea match, it is Aguero that is the straw that stirs the drink. Newcastle is playing very effective compact soccer right now. They registered their third clean sheet over their last four matches with the only goal being surrendered over that span being on Wednesday in their 1-1 draw at home versus Aston Villa. The Magpies are particularly stingy when play at home in St. James Park where they have allowed only 13 goals in sixteen English Premier League matches which are tied for the second-lowest mark in the EPL. With all eight teams competing in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup being from the EPL, I am comfortable using those statistics in handicapping these contests. The concern for this Newcastle United team is that their ambition on offense can stagnate. They registered a low 0.79 expected goals against a suspect Aston Villa defense on Wednesday while failing to generate even one big scoring chance of at least a 35% probability of success rate. The Magpies are averaging just 1.07 expected goals per game in the EPL which is second-to-last. Newcastle has scored only 16 goals at home this year which is the second-fewest in the EPL — and that is matched by their expected goal projection at home which is also 19th in the league.
FINAL TAKE: But manager Steve Bruce is content to grind out lower scoring matches on his home pitch. In their four home games against a big six side in the EPL this season, Newcastle has won two of these matches (while taking one point with a draw in a third game) while seeing only seven combined goals scored. 25* FA Cup Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-20 |
Southampton v. Watford OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W11-D4-L16) has lost three of their last four matches with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Thursday. Watford (W6-D10-L15) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Burnley on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton has seen five combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action this month as they began with a 3-0 victory at Norwich City. The Saints have played better under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after hitting rock bottom in a 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl doubled-down on his high-press aggressive style of play which has helped generate scoring chances. Southampton is averaging 1.59 expected goals per match this season — and they have the 7th best expected goals mark when playing on the road. But this approach does make them vulnerable on their back end. The Saints are allowing 2.42 big scoring chances with an expected success rate of at least 35% which is the 4th highest mark in the EPL. Their challenge on defense in this match is heightened with starting defensive back Jack Stephens suspended for this match after receiving a red card in that match against the Gunners on Thursday. Southampton is averaging 1.66 expected goals (xG) when playing on the road — but they are allowing 1.79 expected goals (xGA) in these fifteen road contests. The Saints have scored at least one goal in seventeen of their last eighteen road matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games away from home. Watford has only seen three combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action. But they return home to Vicarage Road where they are average 1.80 xG per match which is 8th best in the EPL. The Hornets have scored in seven of their last eight matches at home. But they are also allowing their opponents to average 1.51 xGA in their fifteen home matches. Additionally, Watford has only generated just one clean sheet in their last nine matches.
FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen an average of 3.03 combined expected goals scored in their fifteen matches at home. 60% of their home games have finished Over the Total. Southampton is averaging 3.04 combined expected goals per match in their fifteen road games. 67% of those matches have finished Over 2.5 goals — and they have seen eight of their last ten road matches finished Over 2.5 goals. 25* EPL Sunday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-20 |
Manchester City v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L7) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Burnley on Monday by a 5-0 score. Chelsea (W15-D6-L9) won their first game in their return to the pitch on Sunday with their 2-1 win at Aston Villa.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City has scored eight goals in their two matches this month. While they lost their striker Sergio Aguero for, at least, a few weeks with a knee injury he suffered in that match, manager Pep Guardiola has an embarrassment of riches with options to replace him on the pitch. Forward Gabriel Jesus gets plenty of action as the lead striker for this team -- but do not be surprised if Guardiola moves Raheem Sterling to the number nine spot atop the field — that is the position Sterling plays for the English National team. The Citizens lead the EPL with the most goals scored — and they also lead the EPL by averaging 2.62 expected goals (xG) per match. Now Man City goes back on the road where they are generating 2.53 xG per game — but they are vulnerable in back as they allow 1.21 xGA in their fifteen league matches on the road. The Citizens are better on defense with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte healthy and playing at center back — but they have still allowed their opponents to see 14% of their non-penalty scoring chances represent “big chances” with at least a 35% expected success rate. Chelsea was lethargic on offense on Sunday until Christian Pulisic and Ross Barkley took the pitch as substitutes in the second half. They jump-started the Blues offense with Pulisic evening the score with the Villans in the 60th minute before Olivier Giroud scored the game-winner two minutes later. Chelsea returns home to Stamford Bridge where they are scoring just 1.47 goals-per-game as compared to the 2.07 goals-per-game they are averaging on the road. But the Blues have suffered some hard luck at home because they have an xG of 2.33 at home which is better than the 1.61 xG they have on the road. Chelsea will be without one of their starting defenders for this match with Fikayo Tomori out with an injury. The defense is the weak-link for manager Frank Lampard’s team — the 40 goals they have allowed this season is more than the 39 goals they allowed all of last season.
FINAL TAKE: Pulisic has been injured for much of the season — but the American is the real deal despite him warranting some initial skepticism as just a product of the US media hype machine. The Blues are already an aggressive team that deploys a press to put their young talent in positions to succeed — and that approach is bolstered when left-back Marcos Alonso is starting (as he is in this one). Chelsea’s attack is even better with Pulisic in the middle of the field. Man City is a juggernaut — but the Blues should be competitive. Look for, at least, a 2-1 result. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-20 |
Burnley v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W11-D6-L12) was unbeaten in their last seven matches before the stoppage of play after their 1-1 draw at home with Tottenham. Manchester City (W19-D3-L7) comes off a 3-0 win at home on Wednesday over Arsenal in their return to the pitch.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citizens’ victory over the Gunners was their third clean sheet in their last four matches in the English Premier League — and they have played six straight matches in EPL action where one of the teams was shut out. Man City suffocated the Arsenal attack on Wednesday as they allowed only three shots with none on target. Pep Guardiola’s team is much better with center back Aymeric LaPorte on the pitch after he missed much of the season with an injury. Before Wednesday’s match, in the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play this week, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. Man City scored three goals against Arsenal but keep in mind that two of those goals were scored with a man advantage after the Gunners’ defenseman, David Luiz, was whistled for a red card. The Citizens struggled early to get their offense going in that match as they managed only two shots while posting a minuscule 0.13 expected goals mark in the first 30 minutes of that match. Forward Sergio Aguero did not start in that match so he is likely to be one of the starters up top for the two-time defending champions for this match — but who knows what will happen with Pep roulette with the remaining starting XI. Don’t be surprised if Raheem Sterling and/or Kevin DeBruyne does not start in this match. With Liverpool all but clinched the EPL title this season, the goal for Guardiola and this team is to slowly get his team in shape and form for a Champions League run in August which is the only championship to elude this team over their fantastic run in the last few seasons. Man City has the allowed only 12 goals in the EPL when playing at home in the Etihad while also leading the league in the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They have produced six clean sheets in their fourteen home matches at home. And in their ten home games against teams outside the traditional big six EPL clubs, Man City has surrendered just seven goals. Burnley will be significantly undermanned at forward with both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out with injuries for this match. Wood and Barnes are the Clarets’ two leading scorers with seventeen combined goals which account for half of the team’s 34 goals on the season. As it is when at full strength, Burnley has scored only seven goals in their ten matches against the traditional big six sides in the EPL. Expect manager Sean Dyche has his team park the proverbial bus to stymie the Man City attack in this match. Dyche would be ecstatic with a nil-nil draw. The Clarets have allowed at least three goals in only six of their twenty-nine matches — and they have given up more than three goals in just three of those games. When Burnley is playing in a defensive 4-4-2 formation, they enjoy a positive net expected goal differential of +4.85 (xGD) so they are comfortable with this approach. Defense has led the way for the Clarets’ good form before the stoppage of play. Burnley has allowed only one goal in the last three matches while giving up just two combined goals over their last six matches. But the Clarets have scored just four times in their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Man City in the reverse fixture on December 3rd. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their last five opportunities to host the Clarets in Etihad Stadium. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-20 |
Arsenal v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W9-D13-L6) had won their last three matches culminating with a 1-0 victory at home over West Ham on March 7th before the stoppage in play due to COVID-19. Manchester City (W18-D3-L7) has been anxious to get back on the pitch after losing the Manchester Derby to Man United by a 2-0 score in their building back on March 8th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the two-time defending champions have a roster packed with dynamic scorers, those players can distract from the fact that this team plays outstanding defense for manager Pep Guardiola. The Citizens lead the English Premier League in both fewest goals allowed along with the lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league. They also led the EPL in giving up the fewest Big Chances in their last ten league matches before the March hiatus. The good news for Pep is that the extended layoff has provided the time for center back Aymeric LaPorte to recover from his injury. Man City’s defense improves significantly with LaPorte on the pitch. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allows 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. This will be the eighth match this season where they have played one of the perennial Big Six sides — the Citizens have scored only nine times in those seven matches. They host this match at Etihad Stadium where they lead the EPL in both the fewest goals allowed along with xGA. Arsenal has embraced more defensive tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta who took over in late December. The Gunners have allowed just nine goals in their ten matches under Arteta. However, these tactics have come at the expense of their offensive attack as they have scored just 16 times in those ten matches. Arsenal is likely to play cautiously in this match while hoping their attacking talent like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can strike on a counterattack. They have scored only nine goals in their seven matches against a Big Six side. They go on the road where they have scored just 14 times in their thirteen contests — and they have scored just four times in their five road matches under Arteta. But the Gunners have surrendered just four goals in those last five matches away from home — and this is a team that has registered three clean sheets in their last four contests.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal has scored only twice in their last six matches against Man City across all competitions. These are unique circumstances with 100 days passing since the last EPL match — so it is very much like a second offseason. It is interesting to note that Man City delivered two clean sheets in their last two opening matches to a new season. 20* EPL Arsenal-Man City NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-20 |
Mainz v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). THE SITUATION: FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L18) looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg last Sunday. Borussia Dortmund (W20-D6-L5) has won five of their last six matches with their 1-0 win at Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: That was the fourth clean sheet for the Black-Yellows in their six matches since the return to play last month. Borussia Dortmund has only allowed three goals in those six contests. Manager Lucien Favre has transformed his team from a freewheeling attacking unit into a side that prioritizes sturdy defense. BVB has allowed only five goals in their last ten matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered just three goals in their last ten matches in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, they have registered a clean sheet in eight of their last twelve matches in league play. Borussia Dortmund returns home where they lead the league in both goals allowed and in expected goals allowed (xGA). On paper, the Black-Yellows also have a very potent offense that is second in the league with 82 goals scored this season. But Borussia Dortmund has been wildly fortunate with that haul since their expected goals drop to just 59.71. And while the BVB has scored 46 times at home, their xG at home also plummets to a 33.52 mark. Since the return to play, Dortmund has failed to register even 1.0 xG in three of their six matches — and they have only topped 1.76 xG once in those contests. FSV Mainz has not scored a goal in four straight maths — and they are just six goals in their last eleven contests. But Achim Beierlorzer has been seeing his team play better defense since he took over the club midseason. The 05ers have only given up 10 goals in their six matches since the return. They also limited Augsburg to just 0.76 expected goals on Sunday in that narrow 1-0 loss.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund produced a 4-0 shutout victory over FSV Mainz back on December 14th in the reverse fixture between these two teams. The 05ers will struggle to score against an even more compact foe in BVB this time around — but they should allow fewer goals in this rematch. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS2-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
FC Augsburg v. Mainz UNDER 2.75 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Augsburg (202413) and FSV Mainz 05 (2-2414). THE SITUATION: Augsburg (W8-D8-L14) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to FC Koln last Sunday. FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L17) looks to build off a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Augsburg has only won twice in their last twelve matches. Their defense has not been the problem since the return to play last month as they have allowed only five goals in their five matches. But Fuggerstadter has scored only five times in those matches as well. Even worse, Augsburg has scored just once in their last three matches after being shutout in their prior two matches before scoring last Sunday against Koln. Fuggerstadter has scored only eight times going back to their last ten matches while being blanked five times over that span. Now they go back on the road where they have scored just 15 times in their fifteen matches which are tied for the second-lowest tally in the league. While Augsburg has lost six of their last seven road matches, they have scored only four times in those games. FSV Mainz has only scored five times in their last five matches since the return to action. But manager Achim Beieriorzer should feel good about his team’s improves play on defense last week as they held limited Frankfurt to just 0.44 expected goals in their clean sheet victory. Die Nullfunfer stays at home where they have scored just 15 times in fifteen matches which is also the second-lowest mark in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are fighting to stave off elimination with Augsburg four points above the relegation zone and Mainz just one point behind them. A victory would be great for either team while a loss would be devastating. The one point coming from a draw would be acceptable. Because of these implications, both teams are likely to play cautiously for much of this match. Expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Augsburg (202413) and FSV Mainz 05 (2-2414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202401) and Bayern Munich (202402). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L8) looks to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at Freiburg last Friday on June 5th. Bayern Munich (W22-D4-L4) followed up their 4-2 win at Bayer Leverkusen last Saturday with a 2-1 victory at home over Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday in the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians will be undermanned in this match with both Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller suspended for this match after receiving infractions last week in league play. Bayern Munich will also be without winger Serge Gnabry who has been enjoying a breakthrough season this year. Those three scores account for 50 of the 90 goals that the Bavarians have scored this season. And while manager Hansi Flick has the luxury of a very talented roster from which to replace those players for this match, the cohesion for this team on the pitch remains a question without the glue from which Lewandowski with his 30 goals and Muller with his 20 assists offers. But Bayern Munich should remain very tough to score on — they have allowed only five goals in their last six matches. They stay at home at the Allianz Arena where they are tied for the best mark in expected goals allowed. Borussia Monchengladbach has only scored nine goals in their five matches since the return to action — but they have surrendered just seven goals in that span. They will also be undermanned in this contest with forward Alassane Plea suspended for this contest after receiving a red card in that loss to Freiburg. Plea has great chemistry with 22-year old forward Marcus Thuram — so his absence will derail the cohesion that Thuram has enjoyed up top on the pitch. Additionally, the Foals may be without striker Breel Embolo who is in doubt with a calf injury.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 4th best in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed — and they rank 3rd in the league in fewest goals allowed on the road. The Foals defeated Bayern Munich in the reverse fixture by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. With both teams missing some of their best offensive players, expect a lower scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202401) and Bayern Munich (202402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-20 |
Levante v. Valencia OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). THE SITUATION: Levante (W10-D3-L14) returns to the pitch in the Spanish top-flight professional soccer league after last eking out a 1-1 draw at home to Granada back on March 8th. Valencia (W11-D9-L7) followed up a 1-1 draw at Deportivo Alaves on March 6th in their last La Liga by losing at home to Atalanta by a 4-3 score in an empty stadium to end their Champions League run in the Round of 16 with an aggregate 8-4 loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Valencia’s Champions League campaign is now complete this season but manager Albert Celades will be trying to motivate his team to qualify for next year’s European championship as they are 4 points out of the last qualifying position in the La Liga table. Los Che hosts this match in front of an empty stadium where they have scored 23 times which is 6th best in the league — and they have scored in fifteen straight matches on their home pitch. Those offensive numbers are right-in-line with their overall scoring marks as they are 6th in La Liga with 38 goals scored. However, where this team has taken a step back from last year’s Copa Del Rey championship team under previous manager Marcelino is on the defensive end of the pitch. They have surrendered 39 goals in league play this season — but that mark rises to 43.83 expected goals allowed (xGA) per match which is the 3rd highest mark in La Liga in that metric. They have only registered seven clean sheets this season while allowing 15 shots per match. While they rank tied for 6th in the league in the fewest goals allowed at home, their expected goals allowed when playing at home is the 4th worst mark in La Liga. Their backline is also being reconfigured for this match with Ezequiel Garay and Gabriel Paulista both dealing with knocks that will keep them out for this match. Levante has allowed the 5th most goals in La Liga but they rank last in the league with an xGA mark of 2.17 per game. They also are last in La Liga in xGA when playing on the road. They have allowed at least two goals in five straight league matches away from home. But manager Paco Lopez’s counter-attacking approach has resulted in them scoring in nine of their last thirteen matches on the road. 59% of Granotas’ matches this season have gone Over 2.5 combined goals — and they have played eight of their last nine matches on the road Over 2.5 (so the worst-case scenario for this match should be a Push with the Total set at 3 in most spots).
FINAL TAKE: This Valencia Derby is typically a higher-scoring affair. The last four meetings between these two teams have seen 18 combined goals after Valencia won the reverse fixture between these two teams in December by a 4-2 score in a wild affair with sloppy defense where Los Che rallying from a 2-0 deficit. Valencia has scored at least three goals in their last four opportunities to host Levante in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. Hoffenheim OVER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W16-D11-L3) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Paderborn last Saturday. Hoffenheim (W12-D7-L11) also comes off a draw on Saturday in their 2-2 result at Fortuna Dusseldorf.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was another frustrating result for the Red Bulls who have settled for seven draws in their last eleven matches despite not losing any of those league contests. RB Leipzig has scored thirteen goals in their five matches since the return to action last month. But while they have surrendered the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga, they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The defensive cohesion of this team will be stretched for this contest after center back Dayot Upamecano being suspended for this match after he was issued a red card in that draw with Paderborn. Look for the Red Bulls’ scoring attack led by Timo Werner to be their catalyst for this match. RB Leipzig has scored 27 goals in their last thirteen matches — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals (xG) scored. This team also leads the Bundesliga in xG when playing away from home this season after finding the back of the net nine times in their two matches on the road since the return to play. Hoffenheim reacted to their loss on Saturday by sacking their manager Alfred Schreuder. Disagreements in philosophy were explained as the reason for his firing with ownership frustrated with the underwhelming attack coming from this side. Die Kraichgauer has seen thirteen different players score this season but they are just tied for 9th place in the league in goals scored. The tactics for this match should see Hoffenheim play with even more aggressive and attacking flourish. They will also benefit from the return to the pitch of Andrej Kramaric who was a sub on Saturday after being out since March with an injury. Kramaric leads the team with seven goals this year. But the increased emphasis on scoring tactics will place even more pressure on the Die Kraichgauer defense that ranks 7th in the Bundesliga with the highest expected goals allowed (xGA). When playing at home, Hoffenheim has allowed the 4th most goals which are right-in-line with their 4th highest xGA on their home pitch at Rhein-Neckar-Arena. To compound matters, they will be without their captain and center back Benjamin Hubner quarterbacking their backline after he was issued a red card last Saturday in the 9th minute of that match. This spells trouble against RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim has allowed 39 goals this season inside the penalty area — and the Red Bulls have an XG of 27.60 this season in that area of the field. Die Kraichgauer has scored in ten of their last twelve matches at home so they should contribute to reaching the Over for this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann was the manager at Hoffenheim for the previous four seasons before getting banned by the Red Bulls last summer — so he will understand the defensive talent of Die Kraichgauer. The Red Bulls won the last meeting between these two teams back on December 7th in their 3-1 victory in a game where the expected combined goals were 5.1. The last eight contests between these two sides have seen 29 combined goals. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-20 |
Hertha Berlin v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch — but don’t sit on their improved play on the defensive end of the pitch. While surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches under Labbadia’s stewardship. The improved play from the Old Lady should also be attributed to the January signing of former RB Leipzig forward Matheus Cunha who has stepped in to score four goals in his eight matches with the club — but he is a doubt for this match as he recovers from a concussion. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season. While Borussia Dortmund has seen their expected goals output decline in the second half of the season, their play on defense has improved with manager Lucien Favre adding a third defender to his backline. Over their last ten matches, the Black-Yellows are holding their opponents to just 0.87 xGA per contest while not allowing higher than 1.40 expected goals in nine of those matches. Borussia Dortmund has conceded just 11 goals at home at Signal Idun Park which is the lowest mark in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. With the Total set in the 3.5 range, expect another lower scoring game. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Bayer Leverkusen OVER 3.5 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W21-D4-L4) has won fourteen of their last fifteen matches across all competitions after their 5-0 win over Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday. Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L7) has won six of their last seven contests with their 1-0 win at Freiburg last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians did not take their foot off the accelerator after defeating Borussia Dortmund in their previous contest which gave them a commanding 7 point lead in first place in the Bundesliga standings. They dominated Dusseldorf with manager Hansi Flick still using his first-string players. Bayern Munich now needs just three more victories to clinch their eighth straight Bundesliga title — and Flick seems like he wants his team to maintain their momentum to prepare for the return of the Champions League in August. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is W16-D2-L1 in their nineteen matches under Flick while averaging 2.98 expected goals which is over half a goal better than their 2.45 xGF mark in their ten matches in league play before Flick’s appointment. The Bavarians have won seven straight matches on the road with 2.68 expected goals scored in those matches. Since the return to play last month, Bayern Munich has scored 13 times. Bayer Leverkusen was listless in their effort last week against Freiburg as they managed only 0.43 expected goals while allowing them a 0.78 xG. That was the second straight match where Die Werkself lost the expected goals battle as they were dominated by Wolfsburg by a 1.71 xGF - 3.00 xGA mark in their previous contests. Bayer Leverkusen has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on the defensive end of the pitch as they have allowed goals in seven of their last nine matches along with nine of their last twelve contests. The better teams in the league have particularly exposed the Die Werkself backline as Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach combined for 5.29 expected goals.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich should be motivated to avenge two straight losses to Bayer Leverkusen as they followed up their 3-1 loss to them in February of 2019 with a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture this season on November 30th. Both those matches were before Flick’s appointment to the Bavarians. Expect another higher scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Bayern Munich-Bayer Leverkusen FS1-TV O/U Special with the Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-05-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. SC Freiburg OVER 2.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202550). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year — and with goal-differential being the first tie-breaker, manager Marco Rose will want his team to keep their foot on the accelerator if they are winning this match. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. But their defense has not been at their best since the return to play as they have allowed 1.5 goals per game in their four contests. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. This team has not produced a clean sheet since September — and they need to go for broke to gain the potential 3 points with a victory since they are 4 points out of 6th place which is the last qualifier for the Europa League next year. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches — they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense when playing in that formation in 557 minutes this season.
FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. Look for another higher-scoring contest with both teams having something at stake. 10* Bundesliga Friday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. 1. FC Koln OVER 3.25 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W15-D10-L3) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. FC Koln (W10-D4-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at Hoffenheim last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in their last nine matches — but they have only secured three victories over that span. They have scored eight times in their three matches since the return to action in May — and they have the highest expected goal (xG) mark in the league over that span. They have also scored 22 goals over their last eleven matches. The Red Bulls are 3rd in the league with 70 goals scored — and their expected goals mark is 2nd best in the Bundesliga. They also have the most expected goals when playing on the road. RB Leipzig is also an excellent defensive team but they will be without starting left full-back Marcel Halstenberg who is suspended for this match. Koln has allowed seven goals in their three matches since the return of play. The Billy Goats have been inconsistent in these games perhaps not fully motivated since they are mired in the middle of the standings — safe from relegation but unlikely to be able to move up to the 6th spot to qualify for the Europa League next year. Koln blew a two-goal lead in their opening match against Mainz before rallying from a two-goal deficit as a home favorite to eke out a 2-2 draw with lowly Fortuna Dusseldorf. Then on Wednesday, the Billy Goats fell behind by a 3-0 score before getting their offense going — and they ended that match with an xG of 2.24. And despite scoring only four goals in their three matches in May, they ranked 2nd in the Bundesliga with 7.4 expected goals (2.56 xG/match) which is second only to RB Leipzig in that metric.
FINAL TAKE: FC Koln will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig back on November 23rd. Their attacker, Cordoba, has scored nine of his 11 goals at home this season while RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner has scored 14 of his 24 goals on the road. Expect a wild, higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Monday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-20 |
Borussia Dortmund v. SC Paderborn 07 UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund (W21-D4-L4) enters this match looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Tuesday. Paderborn (W4-D7-L14) is winless in their last nine matches after pulling out a nil-nil draw at Augsburg on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Borussia Dortmund was stymied by the Bayern Munich defense as they registered a low 0.57 expected goal (xG) mark in their loss on Tuesday which dropped them to 7 points out of first place. Look for the BVB to be flat in this match. This team’s scoring prowess has declined significantly as of late even before playing the Bavarians. While Borussia Dortmund ranks 2nd to them with 74 goals scored, their expected goals on the season based on the deeper analytics plummets to just 52.68 which not only ranks just 5th in the league but also represents the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected goals. So this team was due a visit from the Regression Gods — and it appears these deities have made their presence known since the return to play this month. The Black-Yellows have scored only six combined goals over their three May matches — and yet their expected goals in these games translate into just 2.78 xGF over those contests for a microscopic 0.93 xGF per match. Regression only explains part of that massive drop off. Jordan Sancho plays a critical part in the offensive attack — but the 20-year old did not respond to self-quarantine in the same way many older professionals have. Sancho returned this month lacking so much fitness that manager Lucien Favre has chosen not to start him. Sancho did substitute in the second half against Bayern Munich on Tuesday but he is a step or two slow which neutralizes the dynamic skillset he displayed earlier in the season. To compound matters for this team’s offensive attack, not only have then been without captain Marcos Reus on their forward line but they will now be without 19-year old forward phenom Erling Haaland who is now out with a knee injury. Borussia Dortmund has seen a steady improvement in their defensive play in the second half of the season. BVB has clean sheets in two of their last three matches along with five of their last seven. They have limited their last eight opponents to just 0.87 expected goals. They go on the road where they rank tied for 9th with 23 goals allowed — but their xGA away from home improves to the 3rd best ranking in the Bundesliga. Paderborn may be in last place in the German top flight but they have pulled out three draws in their three matches since the return of play while generating two clean sheets and allowing only one goal. But they have only scored one time over that span of three matches. Manager Steffen Baumgart had his team playing a direct style which would go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league — but quarantine must have had him hit the tape because his group has played very cautiously since returning to the pitch. In their three matches this month, Paderborn had held their opponents to just 1.12 expected goals per match which are far below their 1.86 xGA for the season. But they are averaging only 1.00 expected goals this month — and they have a low 0.82 xG mark over their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will struggle to score in this match — not only do they rank 16th in the league in expected goals at home (versus being tied for 12th in actual goals at home) and they host a Dortmund side that are tied in 9th in goals allowed on the road but who rank 3rd in xGA in goals against away from home. 25* Bundesliga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-20 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf v. Bayern Munich UNDER 4.25 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Fortuna Dusseldorf (202533) and Bayern Munich (202534). THE SITUATION: Fortuna Dusseldorf (W6-D9-L13) looks to build off a 2-1 win over Schalke on Thursday. Bayern Munich (W20-D4-L4) comes off a big 1-0 win on the road in their showdown against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich likely clinched the Bundesliga championship with that effort earlier this week — so an emotional letdown is very possible especially as a big three-goal favorite in this match. Manager Hansi Flick is also quite likely to be liberal with his substitution strategy with this being his team’s third match in a week. Flick took over in November after Niko Kovac was fired and he immediately changed the tenor of this side on defense. His biggest adjustment was to move Joshua Kimmich from his fullback position on the backline to the midfield where he plays a holding defensive position. Kimmich has great instincts on the pitch so giving him a higher-profile role has worked. The move also gave a space for Phonzie to slide into the starting fullback role with the Canadian excelling in the role. This new XI has done a great job in suppressing high-quality shots by their opponents. Bayern Munich is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches while allowing just eight goals during that span. They have also allowed only two goals in their three matches since returning this month. They stifled a potent Borussia Dortmund offense on Tuesday as they limited them to just 0.57 expected goals in that match. Fortuna Dusseldorf has seen seven combined goals in their three matches this month while allowing just three goals in those contests. Die Flingeraner has scored only 31 goals this season which is tied for the second-lowest in the league — and their expected goals metric is also second-to-last in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Fortuna Dusseldorf was held scoreless in the first meeting between these two teams which Bayern Munich won on the road by a 4-0 score. Die Flingeraner will find it difficult to score once again in this rematch — but they are likely to face a Bavarians side who will be resting on their laurels as a big favorite playing in an empty home stadium. 10* Bundesliga Saturday FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Fortuna Dusseldorf (202533) and Bayern Munich (202534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen v. SC Freiburg OVER 3 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202537) and Freiburg (202538). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Freiburg escaped with the one point coming from the draw on Tuesday — but they were fortunate. They allowed Frankfurt to pepper them with 21 shots with 13 of them on target. They expected goals allowed for that match was 4.38 — so they were lucky to get out of that match with the draw. Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion. Freiburg does not have a clean sheet since September. Now they host a Bayer Leverkusen side that is tied for 4th in the league with 53 goals this season. Manager Peter Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. But the more aggressive tactics that Die Werkself has embraced has cost them on the other end of the pitch as they have allowed at least one goal in seven of their last eight matches — and they have only two clean sheets in their last fourteen games. Furthermore, while Bayer Leverkusen is tied for 5th in the league by allowing just 19 goals on the road, their expected goals allowed (xGA) away from home ranking falls to 12th in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen has seen 14 combined goals scored in their three matches this month after scoring eight times but allowing another six goals. Freiburg has seen nine combined goals scored in their three matches since the return of play as they have scored four times while conceding five goals. Expect a higher scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202537) and Freiburg (202538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
SC Paderborn 07 v. FC Augsburg OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). THE SITUATION: Paderborn (W4-D6-L17) eked out their second straight draw since the return of play in the German top flight with their 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim last Saturday. Augsburg (W8-D6-L13) snapped a six-match winless streak on Sunday when they defeated Schalke on the road by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paderborn has received a burst of energy from forward Dennis Srbeny who has scored four of his team's last five goals with his strike on Saturday. This team has scored in nine of their last eleven matches with an exciting direct style-of-play under manager Steffen Baumgart who has his team go toe-to-toe with the top-level sides in the league. Paderborn is not going to park the bus in the back — especially when they are in last place in the Bundesliga and desperate for the three points that come with a victory. Paderborn has also conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of the match in fourteen of their twenty-seven league matches this season — so they are frequently playing from behind. They have surrendered 55 goals this season which is the third most in the German top flight. Furthermore, Paderborn has only had four clean sheets in four of their last twenty-five matches — and they have pulled this feat off just once in their last eight contests. Augsburg has seen at least three combined goals scored in their first two matches since the return of play. They return home where they are 7th in the Bundesliga with 25 goals scored. They have scored at least one goal in twelve of their last thirteen matches in their WMK Arena — and eleven of their last twelve home matches have gone Over 2.5 combined goals scored. Florian Niederlechner may be due to score in this match as he has not found the back of the net in seven straight matches despite being the team’s leading scorer. Augsburg has also allowed the fourth-most goals in the Bundesliga at a 2.0 goals allowed per game rate.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will be looking to avenge a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg back on November 9th. The Fuggerstadter also employ an open style of play — so Paderborn should get plenty of scoring chances in this match. Augsburg is tied for 12th place in the table which puts them 6 points above the relegation zone. So while the Fuggerstadter are probably safe, they will still be looking to increase their home winning streak against Paderborn to fourteen straight matches. 25* Bundesliga Midweek Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. Mainz OVER 3 |
|
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202449) and FSV Mainz (202450). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D9-L3) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Freiburg last Saturday. FSV Mainz (W8-D3-L15) also comes off a draw as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to earn a 2-2 result at FC Koln last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig has only lost once since last October — and they are unbeaten in seven straight matches. But this team needs to get a victory with the 3 points it provides in the league standings after settling for their ninth draw this year. Their 63 goals are the second-most in the Bundesliga this season — and they have the second-most expected goals in the league. On the road, RB Leipzig has scored 30 goals which are the second-most in the league — and they also rank second in the league in expected goals. FSV Mainz had not scored in three of their last five matches before finding the back of the net twice to pull out the draw on the road last week. Yet this team is still tied for 9th in the league with 36 goals scored this season. The bigger issue for this team has been their leaky defense as they are second-to-last in the Bundesliga having allowed 55 goals.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig had an easy time of it in the reverse fixture between these two teams in November as they blasted FSV Mainz by an 8-0 score. With both teams motivated to improve their place in the German top-flight table, expect at least three combined goals to be scored. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202449) and FSV Mainz (202450). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Monchengladbach OVER 3 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W15-D5-L6) has won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in their last six games after their 4-1 win at Werder Bremen on Monday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D4-L6) has lost just once in their last eight matches after they dispatched of Eintracht Frankfurt on the road by a 3-1 score last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be an entertaining — and high-scoring — contest between two teams fighting for one of the four slots to qualify for the Champions League next season. Both of these engage in aggressive tactics on the pitch. Bayer Leverkusen is currently in 5th place in the German top-flight table just 2 points behind Borussia Monchengladbach who is in 3rd place. Die Werkself is led by a 20-year old sensation Kai Havertz who is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the pitch given his agility along with his 6’2 size. He is destined to be the next great number #10 position player for the German national team for at least the next two World Cup cycles. Manager Peter Bosz did have Havertz playing more of a defensive position in the first half of the season given the loss in the offseason of Julian Brandt who contributed seven goals last season. But Bosz has pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in the second half of the season — and Bayer Leverkusen has responded by scoring 14 goals over their last four matches. Their defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed goals in five of their last six matches along with ten of their last twelve contests. They only have three clean sheets on the road in league play this season — and they rank just 10th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. Borussia Monchengladbach has scored nine goals in their last four matches which have helped them rank 4th in the league in goals scored — and they rise to 3rd in the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) scored. Their match with Eintracht Frankfurt was a wild one as they attempted 17 shots while allowing their opponents to launch 14 shots. Their ability to suppress scoring opportunities is hampered right now with their start holding midfielder in Denis Zakaria out for at least another month after he had knee surgery during the recent stoppage of play. Borussia Monchengladbach is just 7th in the league in goals allowed when playing at home — but they fall to 9th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed when playing on their home pitch. But on the other hand, this team has scored in a dozen straight league matches at home (after blanking in their opening home match this season) — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals scored at home.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen is looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home o Borussia Monchengladbach back on November 2nd. Both teams should get on the board in this match with a high likelihood that at least four combined goals will be scored in this contest. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-20 |
Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). THE SITUATION: Union Berlin (W9-D3-L14) returned to action in the German top flight with a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday. Hertha Berlin (W8-D7-L11) defeated Hoffenheim on the road last Saturday by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Union Berlin did a good job of keeping mighty Bayern Munich in check as the first-place team in Bundesliga had a goal expectation of just 1.35 (xG) from their tactics on the pitch — and one of their goals was scored from a penalty kick. But Union Berlin embraced defensive tactics for most of this match with their top scorer unavailable for that match. Forward Sebastian Andersson had been injured before the stoppage in play for COVID-19 — and while he was available on the bench for this match, manager Urs Fischer decided he was not yet fit for action. Andersson has scored 11 times this season which accounts for 43% of the scoring for Die Eisernen this season — but he should be back on the pitch for this local Berlin derby. This is the maiden season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin — and Fischer’s team has generated fourteen goals via set pieces this year. This team overachieved on defense last week as they have allowed the sixth-most goals on the road in the league this season — and they also rank 6th for the highest xGA when playing away from home. Union Berlin has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches — and they have allowed ten combined goals in their last four contests. To compound matters, Die Eisernen will be undermanned on their backline with defenseman Kevin Schlotterbeck suspended for this match after picking up his fifth yellow card this season on Sunday. Hertha Berlin has seen an uptick in their offensive attack in the second half of the season after making two important moves in the winter transfer window. Die Alt Dame signed Krzysztof Piatek from AC Milan and Matheus Cunha from RB Leipzig to completely transform their forward line. Hertha Berlin has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches while finding the back of the bet at least twice in those three contests. Cunha has scored three goals while adding an assist in his five matches with his new club. And while Piatek did not play on Saturday, he was replaced by team captain Vedad Ibisevic with the 35-year old veteran scoring one of the team’s two goals Cunha. Die Alte Dame plays an entertaining open style of play which has seen plenty of goals from both sides as of late. Over their last six matches, 25 combined goals have been scored. Hertha Berlin has allowed the fourth-most goals when playing at home at the Olympiastadion — and the expected goals they have allowed at home (xGA) is also the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga. They do come off a clean sheet win on the road last week — but the xGA for that match was over 3.0 so they were very fortunate to see that result. Expect an appearance from the Regression Gods on Friday when it comes to the defensive results for this team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have scored in four of their last five meetings in this rivalry. Hertha Berlin’s 31 points put them one point ahead of Union Berlin for 11th place in the German top-flight table. With both teams probably safe from relegation but too far removed from the sixth place necessary to qualify for the next Europa League, the only thing at stake in this match is bragging rights. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
VfL Wolfsburg v. FC Augsburg UNDER 2.75 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-67.5 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between VFL Wolfsburg (202417) and Augsburg (202418). THE SITUATION: Wolfsburg (W9-D9-L7) returns to action in the German Bundesliga after suffering a 2-1 loss at home to Shakhtar Donetsk in a Europa League match on March 12th. Augsburg (W7-D6-L12) last played on March 8th when they lost at home to Bayern Munich by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Augsburg fired their manager, Martin Schmidt, after that match with the first-place team in the Bundesliga. New manager Heiko Herrlich returns to the sidelines almost eighteen months after he was dismissed as the skipper for Bayern Leverkusen. Herrlich will be tasked with fixing a defense that has allowed the second-most goals in the league outside the bottom three sides. However, Herrlich was caught breaking curfew going on a toothpaste run so he will miss this match as he stays in quarantine for the required fourteen days. Despite this setback, I do expect the Fuggerstadter to play better on defense since a change in tactics should fix much of what ails this team. Augsburg has too often been burned in the midfield outmanned by their opposition. Expect Herrlich to implement a less-aggressive approach to compensate. The mission for Augsburg now is to stave off relegation as they are currently in 14th place with a 5 point lead out of the bottom three slots in the league. Grabbing one point from draws will go along way to serve this purpose. Frankly, Augsburg has been a bit unfortunate in surrendering goals this season. While thee have allowed 52 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 45.18 xGA — and the 21 goals they have allowed at home at WWK Arena drops to just 16.85 xGA. More emphasis on defense makes sense with the Fuggerstadter struggling on offense as of late. They have only scored three combined goals in their last five matches while failing to score in three of those matches. They will struggle to score goals against VFL Wolfsburg who is 2nd in Bundesliga with an xGA mark of only 28.21. Wolfsburg has three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions. On the road, they have allowed only 17 goals in their twelve league contests — and their xGA of 15.92 when on the road is the 3rd best mark in Bundesliga. But Wolfsburg has scored only 18 goals when playing on the road in league play which is tied for the 8th lowest. They will also be without their top scorer, Wout Weghorst, who is suspended for this match after being handed a fifth yellow card this season back in March. Weghorst scored 18 goals last year and he was well on his way to besting that mark with 15 goals in Bundesliga already this season.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have seen three of their last five encounters end in a scoreless draw which included their last meeting at Wolfsburg back on October 27th. But in the reverse fixture at Augsburg almost a year ago on May 18th, Wolfsburg rocked the Fuggerstadter by an 8-1 score. Redeeming themselves from that embarrassment offers the final reason why an absent Herrich will likely demand a heavy reliance on defensive principles back at WWK Arena this season. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between VFL Wolfsburg (202417) and Augsburg (202418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
West Ham United v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D6-L14) returns to the pitch after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City back on February 19th. Liverpool (W25-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on February 15th in their last English Premier League match.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is playing outstanding defense after a shaky start to the season. The Reds have produced ten clean sheets in their last eleven games while allowing a mere one goal over that span in English Premier League action. The insertion of Joe Gomez into their defensive backline has certainly helped. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has also gotten his group to play a bit more conservatively with an emphasis on defensive tactics after starting the season where they were an offensive juggernaut. The Reds’ offensive attack has been moderated as of late as they have not scored more than two goals in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has also scored two goals or less in seven of their last ten matches at home. The team lost an important piece to their midfield last Tuesday in their loss to Atletico Madrid in Champions League play with Jordan Henderson suffering a hamstring injury. Look for the Reds to play a bit more cautiously this afternoon to compensate for his absence on the pitch. West Ham parked the proverbial bus last Saturday in their 2-0 loss to Manchester City. Manager David Moyes will likely deploy the same strategy in this contest with the Hammers trying to fight off relegation. Goal differential could play a role in staving off a return to England’s Champions League so West Ham will not begin to play more aggressively if they fall behind by a goal or two. Moyes will be relatively happy with a 2-0 loss so that the Hammers do not get dinged too badly with the goal differential tie-breaker. West Ham had only three shots against Man City with none of them on target. They have scored only five goals in their last six contests with three of them coming in a 3-3 draw against Brighton. West Ham has scored only 10 goals on the road this season in the EPL which is the second lowest amount in the league. The Hammers have seen 21 combined goals in their seven EPL matches against Big Six sides for a 3.0 combined goals per game average.
FINAL TAKE: There is a high likelihood that West Ham will not score in this match. These two teams played last month on January 29th where Liverpool won by a 2-0 score — and I see that result as the probable score this afternoon. Klopp will substitute early once this match is in hand to save the strength of his key players. With the Reds missing Henderson in the middle, I do not think their offensive attack will be clicking on all cylinders. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-4D4-L6) returns to English Premier League action after their 2-2 draw with Chelsea back on February 1st. Wolverhampton (W8-D11-L6) comes off a 0-0 draw at Manchester United on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has come back to earth after a outstanding stretch in the fall where they won ten of eleven EPL matches. The Foxes have won only three times in their last nine matches since that golden run. Some of the problem was the typical visit from the Regression Gods after outperforming their underlying statistics. Leicester City also enjoyed a favorable group of opponents during that autumn stretch before things got more challenging in December and January. But the biggest concern for this team has been the decline of their play on defense. The Foxes have allowed 16 goals over their last nine matches with too many of them occurring from within six feet. The team missed defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi who missed last month with a leg injury — and after suffering a setback in training he will miss this match this afternoon. Leicester City has seen at least three combined goals scored in each of their last eight matches. Forward Jamie Vardy has also seen his production decline after a torrid start as he has not scored in five straight EPL matches. Vardy was averaging a Lionel Messi-like 4 shots per game at his peak during that eleven match run for the Foxes — he has averaged just 1 shot per game since that run. Vardy is wily veteran who should break out of this scoring slump. Leicester City has still scored 13 goals in their last six matches even with Vardy’s slump. The Foxes have also seen their last five road matches all see at least three combined goals where they have scored eleven goals over that span. Leicester City has scored 28 times in their twelve road matches this EPL season. They also have scored 45 times in their seventeen matches against non-Power Six clubs — and they have scoed 25 goals in their eight road matches against non-Power Six sides this EPL season. Wolverhampton produced their first clean sheet in their last ten EPL matches to begin the month. That was also just their second EPL match since the opening game of the season where they were held scoreless. The Wolves have scored or conceded a goal in a league high nineteen matches this season — so the odds are very high that the we will be looking at a 1-1 score (or better for our Over) at one point in this contest. Wolverhampton has seen three of their last four home matches see at least three combined goals scored. They have surrendered 18 goals in their sixteen matches against non-Power Six sides. The Wolves have also allowed the 8th most goals when playing at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton has won their last two opportunities to host Leicester City in English Premier League action by respective 4-3 scores. Expect both teams to score with at least one side scoring at least twice which will be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Liverpool v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W21-D1-L0) continued their historic run in the English Premier League this season with their 2-0 victory over Manchester United on Sunday. Wolverhampton (W8-D10-L5) comes off a 3-2 comeback victory at Southampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have now generated 18 points after finding themselves in a losing position in an EPL match this season — so don’t count out the Over if Liverpool takes an early lead in this game. Wolverhampton had a well-deserved reputation of being a defensive team last season in their first year back promoted to the EPL — but they are playing higher-scoring matches this season. The Wolves have seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last eight matches. Wolverhampton has a hot striker right now in Raul Jimenez who is in form after scoring two late goals against the Saints to rally his team to victory. The Wolves are 7th in the EPL with 34 goals this season — and they have been held scoreless only twice this season (with one of those matches being the opening match of the season). In their four home matches against Power Six sides this season at Molineux, Wolverhampton has scored seven times. But after being tied for 7th in the EPL in fewest goals allowed at home last season, the Wolves have allowed 15 goals in their eleven home matches this season which is just 13th stingiest in the league at home. Liverpool has registered seven straight clean sheets which will certainly make the Under attractive to many bettors. But the Reds backline looked shaky on Sunday against Manchester United as they were outshot by a 9 to 6 margin with their defenders looking a bit tired late in the match. Liverpool was underachieving for most of the first half of the season when it comes to stopping the opposing offensive attack. Perhaps what jumpstarted that group was the injury to Joel Matip which cleared space to Joe Gomez to take his spot to solidify the Reds’ back four. There has not been an EPL team to win nine straight matches with clean sheets since Manchester United pulled this feat off in February of 2009 — so history may not be on the side of a ninth straight clean sheet for the Reds this afternoon. With the goal-line dropping in many spots to Liverpool only being a -0.5 Goal-Line favorite, many bettors consider the Wolves a live dog. I prefer the wiser investment is redirecting that sentiment into the Over. We should not be surprised if Liverpool scores at least three goals in this match. The Reds have scored 38 times in their fifteen matches against non-Power Six sides this season. Liverpool has also scored 17 times in their seven road matches against non-Power Six clubs in the EPL this year for a 2.43 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did win the first meeting between these two teams at home in Anfield by 1-0 score. Sadio Mane scored in the 42nd minute of that match with the Reds settling in at home in the second half to earn the clean sheet. That was just the second time that the Wolves were held scoreless since the opening week of the season in August. Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eleven of their other twelve matches with another 1-0 win over Tottenham being the other exception. But remember that the Reds’ last two victories over Man United and then the Spurs were against teams without their best scoring attackers in Marcus Rashford and Harry Kane who are both dealing with injuries. I think the Wolves break the Liverpool clean sheet streak this afternoon (but a Liverpool 3-0 result would not be a surprise) — but the chance of a draw or outright upset for Wolverhampton being a higher likelihood than two or less combined goals being scored in this rematch. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-20 |
Newcastle United v. Everton UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-152 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W8-D5-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win over Chelsea on Saturday. Everton (W8-D5-L10) comes off a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton will be playing this match undermanned as they currently have been hit with the injury bug. Richarlison is dealing with a knee injury while fellow midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson has a groin injury. Both players did not play in the match against West Ham — and the team has also been without Alex Iwobi who has been out for over a month. The Toffees are getting nice play out of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin but he will not have much help on the pitch for this contest with all three of those injured players unlikely to return for this midweek match. Everton has scored just one goal in each of their last three matches. But this group has tightened things up on the other end of the pitch under new manager Carlo Ancelloti. The Toffees are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches since he took over in late December. They have allowed only four goals in those five contests. Furthermore, outside a 2-1 loss at Manchester City, they have allowed more than one goal just once in their last seven matches while registering three clean sheets during that span. Everton returns home for this match where they have scored just 13 times in their eleven matches — but they have only conceded 11 goals in those eleven matches. Newcastle has seen just three combined goals scored in their last two matches. The Magpies have scored only 22 goals this season which is tied for the third lowest in the English Premier League. In their last seven matches, Newcastle has not scored more than one goal in each contest while getting blanked twice during that span. The Magpies now go back on the road where they have scored only 10 times in their eleven matches. Over the last five games on the road, Newcastle has scored just four times while conceding eight goals — and four of those goals were in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Everton’s 2-1 win at Newcastle back on December 28th. The Toffees host this rematch — and they have seen only fourteen combined goals scored in their seven home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (12W-2D-4L) has won two straight English Premier League matches with their 3-1 win over Leicester City last Sunday. Wolverhampton (6W-9D-3L) comes off a 2-1 win at Norwich City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have scored in seventeen straight EPL matches so the chances are very good they will get on the board against the reigning EPL champions this afternoon. Wolverhampton has played three straight games where at least three combined goals were scored with them scoring five times while conceding five times during that span. And while this team has been know for their defensive prowess, they have only produced one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Wolverhampton has also scored four goals in their three home matches against a Power Six side this season — but they have surrender a whopping eight goals in those three home matches. Overall, the Wolves are 8th in the league with 26 goals. Manchester City leads the EPL with their 50 goals scored. They have scored three goals in each of their last two matches. The Citizens have also seen at least three combined goals scored in nine straight matches this season. Man City has taken a step back on defense this season as they have surrendered 20 goals already which is just 4th best. They have only produced one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Man City should have their star midfielder, Kevin DeBruyne available for this game after he suffered a knock last week. And while Sergio Aguero will not start this afternoon, he is working himself back into game shape after suffering an injury and might be called on as a sub. The Citizens have more than a capable second forward in Brazilian star Gabriel Jesus to use as their striker with KDB and Raheem Sterling also potent scoring threats. Man City has scored 41 goals in their thirteen matches against non-Power Six opponents. And in their seven road matches against non-Power Six foes, Man City is averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game while conceding more than one goal per game.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Wolves back on October 6th by a 2-0 score. They will not be blanked again. I think three combined goals is the worst case scenario with an outstanding chance that Man City scores at least three times (or Wolverhampton scores at least twice). 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Arsenal v. Sheffield United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (4W-3D-1L) returns to English Premier League action after the international break from a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth back on October 6th. Sheffield United (2W-3D-3L) comes off a 0-0 draw at Watford back on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches as they have embraced more defensive tactics under second-year manager Unai Emery. The Gunners have scored only one goal in their last two matches while conceding just two goals. The offensive attack has been limited with forward Alexandre Lacazette being injured — and he will be on the bench for this match. Arsenal also has Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who is a prolific scorer but who also has a low ceiling regarding his potential offensive output. Aubemeyang has not registered more than two shots on target in a match all season. The Gunners are 6th in the league by averaging 13.5 shots per game — but that number drops significantly to just 8.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is 10th in the EPL. Arsenal also averages just 3.5 shots on target per match on the road which is also 10th in the league. They now face a feisty Sheffield United side which is tied for first with only seven goals conceded this season. While this team was promoted from the Championship League last season, this is a dangerous team under manager Chris Wilder who played Liverpool to a narrow 1-0 loss earlier this year. Sheffield has allowed only two goals in their last two matches — but they have also scored only two goals in those four matches while being shut out three times. Sheffield has scored only seven times in their eight matches which is third to last in the league. They average just 9.8 shots per match which is third-to-last. Furthermore, this side averages 2.5 shots on target per match which is the second-fewest in the league — and that number only climbs to a 2.8 mark at home which is also 19th of the twenty team league. In their four home matches, Sheffield has scored only two goals — but they have conceded just four goals. And in their two matches against Power Six clubs this season, Sheffield has allowed only three combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United will be very happy to deploy their defensive tactics to engage in another low-scoring match that they can perhaps steal with a goal on the counter-attack. Arsenal does not play aggressively in hostile environments — Emery’s approach will likely be to have his team stick around until the skill of Aubemeyang eventually finds the back of the net. This is a great formula for a lower scoring match. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D0-L0) remained perfect so far in the English Premier League last Saturday with their 3-1 win at home over Newcastle. Chelsea (W2-D3-L1) comes off a dominant 5-2 win at Wolverhampton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues were led by Tammy Abraham who registered a hat trick to lead the way in that big victory over the Wolves. Abraham has already scored seven times for Frank Lampard’s side to give this Chelsea team a scoring threat at forward they have not had since Diego Costa helped them win an EPL championship a few seasons ago. The Blues have scored ten goals in their last three matches as they are finding plenty of scoring opportunities in Lampard’s system. Chelsea is third in the EPL by averaging 16.5 shots per match — and that number rises to 18.7 shots per game when they play at home at Stamford Bridge. But the Blues have also allowed eleven goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL. Lampard’s tactics are leaving this Chelsea team vulnerable in the midfield when they are not possessing the football — and that is a terrifying prospect for them when now facing Mo Salah and Sadio Mane of this powerful Liverpool team. The Reds have scored fifteen goals this season — and the reigning Champions League titleholders are second in the EPL by averaging 18.2 shots per game. Liverpool has seen six combined goals scored in their two road matches this season where they are average 15 shots per match which is also second in the league. An area of concern for this Reds team this season as they strive to win the EPL championship has been the play of their backline which has not been quite as stout as their play of last year. Liverpool has only one clean sheet this season as they have been relying on their prolific scoring attack that has netted at least three goals in four of their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has scored in nineteen of their last twenty matches with Liverpool across all competitions. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Southampton OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off a 3-1 win over Everton last Sunday. Southampton (W2-D1-L2) comes off a 1-0 win over Sheffield City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bournemouth has seen each of their last four matches combine for at least three goals scored. The Cherries have scored seven times in those four matches while conceding eight times. With forwards Callum Wilson and Joshua King along with midfielder Ryan Fraser, this Bournemouth team has three players who can score goals — they ranked 7th in the EPL in goals scored last season. But the Cherries are porous on defense. Last season, Bournemouth allowed the third-most goals in the English Premier League. In their nineteen road matches, the Cherries scored 26 times while conceding a whopping 45 goals. Furthermore, in their thirteen road matches against non-Big Six sides, Bournemouth scored 23 goals while conceding 23 times. This season, the Cherries have allowed 15.2 shots per match which is fifth-most in the EPL. That number gets worse on the road where Bournemouth has allowed 19 shots per match which is fourth-most in the league. Southampton also gives up a ton of shots — they allow 15 shots per match which is 6th most in the league. At home, the Saints allowed 18 shots per game which is the second-highest number in the EPL. Southampton conceded the sixth-most shots in the EPL. In their nineteen home matches last year, the Saints scored 27 goals while conceding 30 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two sides last played back on April 27th where Southampton hosted at St. Mary’s in a match that resulted in a 3-3 draw. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-19 |
West Ham United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W2-D1-L1) returns to English Premier League after the international break after defeating Norwich City by a 2-0 score on August 31st. Aston Villa (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce-back from their 1-0 loss at Crystal Palace back on August 31st in EPL action.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: West Ham’s clean sheet against Norwich City looks even more impressive now after the promoted upstarts upset Manchester City on Saturday while scoring three goals against the two-time defending champions. After an opening week 5-0 loss at home to Man City, the Hammers have conceded only two goals in their next three matches. Now West Ham goes back on the road where they fifteen of their last seventeen games on the road in EPL action have not seen more than three combined goals. Furthermore, West Ham is averaging just 1.5 Goals-Per-Game in their last fourteen games on the road against the non-Big Six teams in the EPL going back to the start of last season — and they are conceding just 1.29 Goals-Per-Game in those contests. Aston Villa has seen three of their four matches this season see three or less combined goals scored with the lone exception being against one of the Power Six sides in Tottenham. The Villains were promoted from the Championship League last year via their playoffs. Aston Villa conceded more goals at home than the last-place team in that league so management realized that upgrading the backend was essential for the team’s return to the EPL after a three-year absence. The Villains added left-back Matt Targett from Southampton while received center back Tyrone Mings on loan from Bournemouth. They also made a nice upgrade with their keeper by adding Tom Heaton from the crowded goalie situation at Burnley. Manager Dean Smith is probably playing his star man midfielder, Jack Grealish, 10 to 15 yards too far back on the pitch — but that demonstrates his commitment to defensive tactics for this team. Aston Villa has scored only three times in their four matches — but they have only allowed three combined goals in their three matches outside their 3-1 loss to the Spurs. The Villains rank a respectable 11th in the EPL in Expected Goals Allowed (xGA)— but this has come at a cost of offense as they also rank second-to-last in Expected Goals (xG). In their two home matches this season, Aston Villa has allowed only two goals while scoring just three times.
FINAL TAKE: I do not see four combined goals scored in this match with the Villains playing cautiously and quite content to register a point with a draw. Look for this match to have two goals (or less) scored with less than ten minutes left where we will then be sweating the win or living with the Push. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Manchester City v. Norwich City OVER 4 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D1-L0) returns from the international break coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Brighton and Hove Albion two Saturdays ago. Norwich City (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to West Ham back on August 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Norwich City was prompted from the Championship League after finishing in first place in that league. The Canaries accomplished that feat with an aggressive attack with manager Daniel Farke emphasizing shot volume. Their average match last season saw 3.26 combined goals which is the highest number for a promoted side into the English Premier League in ten seasons. But this style of play had consequences as this side was leaky on defense — they conceded 57 goals last year which was the third most in that league. Farke has not backed down with this style of play against EPL competition — they rank tied for 6th in the EPL with six goals. Furthermore, the Canaries average 5.3 shots per game on target which is 6th best in the league — and that number rises to 6.5 shots on target per game when playing at home which ranks 4th best in the EPL. They are led by their feisty forward, Teemu Pukki who has scored five times already this season. Don’t be surprised if Norwich City scores a goal in this game. But they will likely concede at least four goals against the reigning EPL champions. The Canaries have allowed ten goals in their four matches this season which is the most in the EPL. The 47 shots they have allowed in the box also tops the league. Playing at home did not make much of a difference last season either as the 34 goals they allowed which was 15th worst in the league. To compound matters, this Norwich City side is ravaged with injuries in their midfield and their defense. Defensemen Max Aarons has a knock from international play over the break while Ben Godfrey who is out with a groin injury — and that challenges the limited depth of this promoted side on their backline. And here comes Manchester City with a rested Sergio Aguero who did not play for Argentina over the break with that national team going young after years of disappointment in international play. A rested Aguero — who will absolutely play with fellow forward Gabriel Jesus dealing with a thigh injury — should have a field day against this defense. Aguero has scored in all four of the Citizens matches this season. Man City is 2nd in the EPL in goals scored with 14 — and they lead the EPL in Expected Goals scored (xG). Additionally, Man City leads the EPL with 19.35 shots per game — and they lead the league with 7.5 shots per game on target. As scary as this sounds, this team maybe even better than last year’s group with midfielder extraordinaire Kevin DeBruyne now fully healthy again after he dealt with injuries last season. DeBruyne is an assist machine who may have the best foot 40 yards away in the world. Manchester City scored 75 goals last season in their 29 matches against the non-Big Six sides last season. If there is a weakness with this side, it is with their backline with manager Pep Guardiola still searching for four reliable starters who play well together. An injury to Aymeric Laporte takes away one of their best defenders for this match.
FINAL TAKE: To Farke’s credit — or demise — he will not deviate from his strategy of attacking the opposition and having his defensive line play aggressively up the pitch. Norwich City will not play for a nil-nil draw — but they are likely to see a 4-1 (or worse) result. 25* English Premier League Saturday NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester City UNDER 3 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W1-D0-L0) won their opening match last Saturday with their 3-1 victory over Aston Villa. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) began the defense of their 2018-19 English Premier League championship with a 5-0 victory at West Ham.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tottenham is undermanned for this match with Dele Alli, Ryan Sessegnon, and Ben Davies all dealing with injuries while Juan Foyth and Son Heung-min ineligible to play as they finish out respective suspensions. The Spurs still have a healthy Harry Kane who scored twice in the final five minutes of their match with the promoted Aston Villa side to escape with that 3-1 victory. The Tottenham offensive attack was sluggish for most of that match until Christian Eriksen took the pitch to offer Kane a passing combination from the midfield. The Spurs scored only 10 goals in their ten EPL matches last season against one of the Big Six opponents. However, Tottenham’s defense was solid in those matches as they surrendered only 15 goals in those ten matches against the Big Six. Only two of those ten matches saw more than three combined goals scored with five of those matches seeing no more than two combined goals scored by both teams. Manager Mauricio Pochettino typically has his team embrace defensive tactics in these high-profile matches — and that will even more likely be the case given that his starting XI is not his best possible group. Manchester City produced another clean sheet last Saturday by blanking West Ham. The Citizens were second in the EPL last season by allowing only 29 goals in their thirty-eight matches all season. Man City’s defense plays consistently well even against the best competition in the league. Manchester City allowed only five goals in their ten matches against Power Six sides — and they surrendered a mere three goals in their five home matches against these Big Six teams. Pep Guardiola is also dealing with some injuries with Leroy Sane out as he prepares for knee surgery and Benjamin Mendy still working on his game fitness.
FINAL TAKE: These teams and managers are very familiar with each other. They faced off against each other three times in a twelve-day stretch last April with one EPL match and the two-legs of their Championship League Semifinals clash. Two of those matches ended in 1-0 results with Tottenham winning the opening match at home in that Champions League clash on April 9th before Man City avenged losing that semifinals showdown with a 1-0 victory in EPL play on April 20th. The Spurs advanced to the Champions League Finals by the road team goals scored tie-breaker after a 4-3 result at Man City on April 17th in a wild game where the Citizens needed to win by at least two goals. That result was a bit of an aberration given the urgency Manchester City had to win by two goals (after the Spurs registered a goal on the road). Expect the defensive tactics of those other two April matches serve as the template for this encounter. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Algeria v. Senegal UNDER 2 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Algeria (235605) and Senegal (235606) in the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W5-1D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday with their 2-1 win over Nigeria. Senegal (W5-D0-L1) joined them in this championship match with their 1-0 win over Tunisia on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal scored on an own goal in the 100th minute which made the winning difference in their Semifinals match against Tunisia. Scoring is an issue for this side with the Lions of Teranga having not scored a goal from one of their own players 2 hours and 21 minutes of play. Sadio Mane is their only player to find the back of the net only once — and the Liverpool star has shown the physical effects of carrying his national team in the Knockout Stage as he has looked like he was lacking energy at times. Senegal is also undermanned in this championship match. They were already missing their top goaltender, Eduard Mendy, who is dealing with an injury. Now they will be without their best backline player in the 6’5 Kalidou Coulibaly who is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Sunday. Manager Aliou Cisse has already had his team embrace defensive tactics in this tournament. All three of their victories in the Knockout Stage have been by 1-0 scores. With Mane seeming to be tired and their defense undermanned, look for the Lions of Teranga to be even more frugal with the chances they are willing to take. Algeria defense has also been stout as they have surrendered only two goals in those six matches. Three of the Desert Foxes six matches have seen more than two goals scored — but their Semifinals match with Nigeria saw that third goal scored my Mahrez in the last play of the game in the 95th minute.
FINAL TAKE: Senegal managed only one shot on target in the Semifinals — and Algeria only had two shot attempts in their Semifinals match against Nigeria. Both of these teams look to be content playing a defensive struggle where they then rely on their respective superstars, Mahrez and Mane, looking to score a winning goal late in the match. These two teams played to a 1-0 score when they played in the Group Stage back on June 27th which the Desert Foxes won. Expect another low scoring match this afternoon. 10* Africa Cup of Nations Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Algeria (235605) and Senegal (235606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Nigeria v. Tunisia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602) in the Third Place consolation match in the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W4-D0-L2) lost a heartbreaker in the final play of the fifth minute of extra time after 90 minutes when Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez scored on a spectacular free-kick just outside the box to hand the Nigerians a 2-1 loss. Tunisia (W1-D4-L1) also lost a tough one when they scored an own goal in the 100th minute of the match that was still nil-nil after 90 minutes in a 1-0 loss to Senegal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is difficult to assess if Nigeria will be deflated after surrendering the game-winning goal in the final moments of their match with Algeria or if they will rally around each other to bounce-back to take solace in a potential bronze trophy with a victory. Either way, the Super Eagles look poised to either score goals or surrender goals. This is not a side that typically plays low-scoring matches. In their three matches since suffering a surprising 2-0 loss to Madagascar in their final Group Stage match, Nigeria has scored six times. The Super Eagles are loaded with speed, talent, and power at the forward position. But this team also tends to make mistakes in their backline. They have allowed five goals in their last three matches. Nigeria’s last three matches have seen at least three combined goals. Tunisia has seen at least two combined goals in four of their six matches in this tournament. That final score in their loss to Senegal is a bit deceiving since both teams missed penalty kicks — the final score of that Semifinals match could have easily been a 2-1 result. The Eagles of Carthage have scored six times in this event while allowing just four goals with manager Alain Giresse content to grind out lower scoring matches. This tempo may now change in this consolation match. Tunisia competed in last summer’s World Cup where they scored five times in three Group Stage matches while surrendering a whopping eight goals.
FINAL TAKE: With the combination of tired legs, a lack of urgency on defense, and the desire to play more aggressively with less on the line, expect a higher scoring match. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-19 |
Tunisia v. Senegal UNDER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Tunisia (W1-D4-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament on Thursday with their 3-0 victory over Madagascar. Senegal (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the Semifinals the day before with their 1-0 victory over Benin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tunisia doubled their scoring output in this event with those three goals on Thursday. The Eagles of Carthage had scored only three combined goals in their previous four games before seeing that offensive explosion. Frankly, they were able to take advantage of an overmatched Madagascar side that had been the surprise of the tournament but whose bubble was ready to be burst after defeating a Nigeria side in the Group Stage that was resting key players before sneaking past an underperforming Congo DR team via Penalty Kicks in the Round of Sixteen. Tunisia had not seen more than two combined goals in their first four matches that all ended in draws. This is a team that is quite content to grind out a low scoring match led by an experienced group of defenders that competed in last summer’s World Cup. The Eagles of Carthage have surrendered only three goals in their five matches in this tournament. Senegal has conceded only once in their five tournament matches in what was a 1-0 loss to Algeria in the Group Stage. That contest between two sides that are now in the Semifinals may have been a precursor as to how this contest will play out. The Lions of Teranga probably have the best player left in this tournament (with Egypt’s Mo Salah eliminated) in Sadio Mane. Senegal is happy to play very cautiously with a defensive mindset with the confidence that the Liverpool star will find scoring opportunities in the counterattack. The Lions of Teranga have scored only seven times in their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low scoring match with the worst-case scenario likely being two combined goals scored in the first 90 minutes of regulation time. A 1-0 score — or even a nil-nil result after the first 90 minutes looks to be a more likely outcome. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-19 |
Tunisia v. Madagascar UNDER 2 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-131 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790) in the Quarterfinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Madagascar (W2-D2-L0) reached the Quarterfinals on Sunday after defeating the Congo DR via Penalty Kicks by a 4-2 score after that match ended in a 2-2 deadlock after 120 minutes. Tunisia (W0-D4-L0) also advanced from the Round of 16 via Penalty Kicks by a 5-4 margin after their match with Ghana remained unresolved by a 1-1 score on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Madagascar has been the story of this tournament with the debutants pulling off upset wins over both the Congo DR and Nigeria in the Group Stage. Producing a clean sheet against the Super Eagles was impressive — and they also registered a shutout against Burundi. Madagascar has deployed a daring style of play in this tournament that has surprised their opponents — but they may tighten up now with the prospects of reaching the Semifinals. This remains a side that lacks difference makers so they may struggle to score as they did against lowly Burundi where they scored just once. They face a Tunisia side that is quite content to see this match resolved via penalty kicks. The Eagles of Carthage have not seen more than two combined goals scored in all four of their matches in this tournament. Tunisia has not produced a victory within 120 minutes of all four of their matches. They have scored only three goals in this event — but they have allowed only three goals as well. The Eagles of Carthage were close to registering a clean sheet on Monday before Ghana scored in the first minute of extra time of regulation to force an additional 30 minutes of play.
FINAL TAKE: Twelve of the seventeen combined goals scored in then matches these two teams have played in this tournament have come in the second half. With it being very possible that this match will remain scoreless going into the second half, expect a very low scoring result after the first 90 minutes. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
United States v. Mexico OVER 2 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) remained unbeaten in the 2019 Gold Cup after they defeated Jamaica in the Semifinals of this tournament by a 3-1 score. Mexico (W4-D1-L0) made it to the championship of this event when they defeated Haiti on Tuesday by a 1-0 score. This match is being played in Chicago’s Soldier Field.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The United States had not conceded a goal in this tournament before the Reggae Boyz broke that seal in the 69th minute of that match. Jamaica is a defensive-oriented team who had to push their aggressiveness after falling behind by a 2-0 score. The Stars and Stripes have played a group of teams in this tournament who tend to play back to defend which choosing their battles with counter attacks. This will be the most aggressive opponent they will have faced in this event against this Mexico team that likes to play on their front foot. Rookie manager Gregg Berhalter has this team playing more ambitiously as well by implementing a counter pressing attack. This is a formula for higher scoring matches when facing the more talented and offensively oriented teams in the world. The US backline was demonstrating some vulnerabilities in their friendlies in preparation for this tournament — especially in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela on June 9th. But what has been the most impressive development for this team has been the emerging chemistry between their two young stars Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie. Both players scored on Wednesday with Pulisi scoring the final two goals for the US in that match in their victory over Jamaica. They have combined to score five of the Stars and Stripes fifteen goals. They will likely be joined by veteran forward Jozy Altidore who started in the match against Jamaica after beginning this tournament on the bench. Altidore had 42 goals for the USMNT. Mexico has also scored fifteen goals in their five matches. Yet El Tri has scored only one goal in the first 90 minutes of their last two matches. Much of the reason for that is that Haiti and Costa Rica in the quarterfinals were content on playing lower scoring matches. Mexico allowed seven goals in their four World Cup matches last summer so they have shown themselves vulnerable to opponents that play aggressively.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this match — and I expect at least three combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes with both of these teams likely to push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. USA (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W6-D0-L0) reached the Finals of the Women’s World Cup with their 1-0 victory over Sweden on Wednesday. The United States (W6-D0-L0) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory over England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: When Christen Press scored her header in the 10th minute of that match with England, it was the sixth straight time that the United States scored the opening goal in the first ten minutes of the match. Putting their opponents on the back foot changes the tempo of the match since the other team has to play more aggressively with their need to score to tie the match. Both teams have scored in all three of the Stars and Stripes matches in the Knockout Stage of this tournament. All three of those matches also saw at least three combined goals scored. The Americans have scored at least twice in all six of their matches in this tournament — and they are one goal away from tying the World Cup record of 25 goals in one event. The Netherlands had scored in eight of their previous ten matches in the second half before their match with Sweden needed extra time after the nil-nil score after 90 minutes. The Orange Lionesses have a powerful front-three attack with Lieke Martens, Shanice van de Sandeen, and Vivianne Miedema — and they also have a super sub at forward in Lineth Beerensteyn. Defense was considered the weak link for this team but they have been able to embrace defensive tactics in this tournament by always being the first to score and never trailing in any of their six matches.
FINAL TAKE: The Netherlands enter this match on a 257 minute shutout streak — but that dynamic changes if they find themselves trailing for the first time in this tournament. The Dutch scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches to win the 2017 Euro Championship. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Sweden (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.75 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-61.5 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225909) and England in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W4-D0-L2) lost their Semifinals match with the Netherlands on Wednesday by a 1-0 score that required an additional 30 minutes of extra time to resolve after being scoreless after the first 90 minutes. England (W5-D0-L1) looks to bounce-back from their 2-1 loss to the United States on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden faces a fatigue issue having played 120 minutes on Wednesday and now facing an England side who had one extra day of rest for this match. Look for manager Peter Gerhardsson to rotate a few of his starting XI to get some fresh legs on to the pitch. The Blue and Yellow are likely to play this match with even more caution given this potential disadvantage. As it is, the Sweden team is quite content to grind out low scoring matches. They have allowed only five goals in their six matches in this tournament — with two of those goals being scored by the United States. The Blue and Yellow have scored just ten times in those six matches as well — and five of those goals came against a Thailand team that surrendered 13 goals to the United States. The Swedes are at their best when they are implementing a conservative counter-attacking scheme while playing very compact. England has only allowed three goals in their six matches in this tournament with two of those goals being in their game with the US on Tuesday. The Three Lionesses only conceded one goal in their nine matches in the World Cup qualifying matches as well. Their backline is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right fullback in women’s soccer.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Sweden’s defensive-approach dictate the tempt of this match. Don’t expect more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 10* Women’s World Cup Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225909) and England in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-19 |
Senegal v. Uganda UNDER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750) in the Round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations. Senegal (2W-0D-1L) reached the Knockout Stage of the African Nations Cup with their 3-0 victory over Kenya on Monday. Uganda (1W-1D-1L) comes off a 2-0 loss to Egypt in their last Group Stage match on Sunday but still qualified as one of the sixteen teams in this tournament on the basis of accruing 4 points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal has sixteen players from the group that was 1W-1D-1L in last summer’s World Cup. They are led by Sadio Mane who stars for Liverpool in the English Premier League — but this is a defensive-minded group. The Lions of Teranga have registered six clean sheets in their last eight matches. Their defensive efforts are led by 6’5 Kalidou Koulibaly who anchors their backline. Senegal has allowed only one goal in this tournament. But they had scored only two goals in their first two matches before scoring three times in their last match against an overmatched Kenya side. With their top goalkeeper, Eduard Mendy, out with an injury, the Lions of Teranga will probably play even more cautiously as to not risk overwhelming their backup keeper. They will not face an explosive offensive attack from this Uganda team that has scored only three times in this tournament. The Cranes have been left scoreless in four of their last eight matches overall. This is the second straight African Cup for Uganda — and this is the first time they have reached the Knockout Stage since 1978. But this group is a bit distracted with the players refusing to train on Wednesday as a protest for unpaid bonuses they earned when they defeated the Democratic Republic of Congo in their opening match of this tournament. The Cranes best player may be their goalkeeper, Denis Onyango, who is one of the best keepers in the continent. Uganda has allowed only three goals in their three Afcon matches.
FINAL TAKE: Uganda has seen two combined goals scored in all three of their Group Stage matches — and their previous three matches before this tournament did not produce more than two combined goals. Senegal has only had one of their matches see more than two combined goals in this tournament — and only one of their four prior matches in 2019 generated more than two combined goals. I suspect Uganda fails to score in this match with the very high probability that no more than two combined goals being scored — making a push (at 2.0) the likely worst-case scenario. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-03-19 |
Sweden (W) v. Netherlands (W) UNDER 2.25 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225905) and the Netherlands (225906) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (4W-0D-1L) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Germany last Saturday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. The Netherlands (5W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals on Saturday as well with their 2-0 victory over Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden displayed grit and resolve by allowing the Germans to take a 1-0 lead in the 16th minute of the match but leveling the score at 1-1 just six minutes later. The Blue and Yellow then seized the 2-1 lead in the third minute of the second half. The Swedes flexed their muscles on defense by not allowing the Germans to score a tying goal for the remaining time in the second half consisting of more than 40 minutes. The Swedes are stout defensively as they have surrendered only four goals in this tournament with three of them coming against the US and Germany. But while the Blue and Yellow have scored ten times in their five matches in this tournament, five of those goals came against a minnow in Thailand who also surrendered thirteen goals to the United States. Sweden has scored only five goals in their remaining four matches. The Netherlands earned their second clean sheet in this tournament with their Quarterfinals win over Italy. The Dutch have allowed only three goals in this event. The Orange Lionesses also generated three clean sheets in their final three friendlies leading up to this tournament. While the Netherlands entered the World Cup with the reputation of being a high scoring team, they have scored more than two goals just once in their five matches with manager Sarina Wiegman shifting her team’s tactics to more defensive in nature.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Euro with the Dutch winning by a 2-0 score. Expect another low scoring match with no more than two combined goals scored in the 90 minutes of regulation time. 10* Women’s World Cup Netherlands-Sweden FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225905) and the Netherlands (225906) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Mexico v. Haiti OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (3W-1D-0L) survived their Quarterfinals match with Costa Rica on Saturday by winning via a shootout by a 5-4 margin after that game ended with a 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Haiti (4W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals earlier on Sunday with their 3-2 upset win over Canada. This match will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Haiti has fully embraced the role of the Cardiac Kids in this tournament with three of their four victories occurring after initializing allowing the first goal in that game. Les Grenadiers rallied from 1-0 deficits to defeat both Bermuda and Costa Rica by 2-1 scores in the Group Stage. Those results gave this team confidence even when they went into halftime trailing by a 2-0 score to Canada in the Quarterfinals. Haiti kept to their game plan on relying on counter-attacks — and they scored three times in the second half to steal that match from the Canadians. With an average age of just over 24-years of age, this is the youngest team in this tournament. But they are also surging with confidence. They are unlikely to secure a clean sheet in this match. However, this Haiti team will keep on attacking even if they fall behind. They have scored nine times in their four matches despite having an average possession of the ball for just 38.1% of the time in these contests. Counter-attacking sides have often been the Achilles’ heel of the Mexican national team. El Tri has surrendered at least one goal in three of their four matches in this event. Their nervy Quarterfinals match with an angry Costa Rica side motivated to redeem themselves from blowing their 1-0 lead against Haiti was the first time in eight matches under new manager Tito Martino where they did not score at least three goals. Mexico has scored fourteen goals in this tournament. They did not lack for pressure against Costa Rica as they had 22 shots attempts in that match.
FINAL TAKE: With the quick turnaround for this Semifinals match, legs may be tired for both sides. That should help the offenses for each respective team. I expect to see both teams score in the first 90 minutes of this match with at least one of these teams scoring twice over that span. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Argentina v. Brazil UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). THE SITUATION: Argentina (2W-1D-1L) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America with their 2-0 win over Venezuela on Friday. Brazil (2W-2D-0L) joined them in the Semifinals later that day with their 0-0 draw with Paraguay which they survived by winning the shootout by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Argentina is a work in progress as their national program rebuilds from their disappointing World Cup last summer where they lost in the Round of 16 to France. Manager Lionel Scaloni has tried to have his team play more pragmatically since that tournament. La Albiceleste is playing better defense as this event moves forward as they have registered two straight clean sheets. But they have only scored five goals in their four matches despite having Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero on the pitch. They will be playing a Brazil team that has yet to concede a goal in this tournament. But the Selecao has struggled in three of their four matches which have resulted in their fans jeering them for underachieving. Brazil has not scored a goal in two of their four matches against Venezuela in their second Group Stage match and then against Paraguay last Friday night. This team has often played with nervous energy in front of their home fans as the host nation. They are a bit undermanned with Richarlison unavailable for them in the midfield as he deals with a case of the mumps. The Selecao did not score a goal against Paraguay despite having a man advantage on the pitch after a red card gave them an 11 to 10 man advantage in the 58th minute of that match. Yet Brazil could not muster even one goal with the man advantage for those remaining 32 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are searching for confidence right now. Argentina has never won an international title in the Messi era. After losing in the 2014 World Cup Finals to Germany, La Albiceleste has been a national program in decline. Brazil lost to the Germans by a 7-1 score in the Semifinals of that World Cup in the Estadio Mineiro that will host this match. Since that match, the Brazilian fans have had little patience for their team. This shapes up to be a low scoring match where neither team takes too many chances in the hopes that their talent will make the difference late in the match. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
USA (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (5W-0D-0L) defeated France by a 2-1 score on Friday in that Quarterfinals showdown. England (5-0-0) reached the Semifinals on Thursday when they defeated Norway by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England entered that match with Norway with two significant doubts on their backline with Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury and Millie Bright ill with a virus that spread through the team. Both central defenders ended up playing and played important roles in the clean sheet. With five days of rest and recuperation since that match, both defenders should be closer to full strength for this showdown. The Three Lionesses defense has been outstanding in this tournament as they have conceded only one goal in their opening match against Scotland. England is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right back in the world of women’s soccer. She will be assigned to slow down Megan Rapinoe in this match — and she will have an advantage of being very familiar with the pitch with this being played in Lyon where she plays professionally. The Three Lionesses have scored eleven goals in their five matches which is a healthy amount — but after scoring only five goals in their three Group Stage matches, this team may be prepared to grind out a low scoring match with the Americans. Team USA has been spectacular on defense in this tournament as they have also only surrendered two goals. A question mark for this group entering this event regarded how Crystal Dunn would play at left back since this put the attacker out of position in playing on the backline. Dunn has steadily improved and rewarded manager Jill Ellis’ choice to put her on the pitch in the Starting XI as she played her best game in this World Cup. The Stars and Stripes did not allow a shot on target in the first half by the French. And they held Les Bleus to only one goal despite allowing them to have possession for 61% of that match. On paper, the USA looks like an offensive juggernaut with its whopping 22 goals in this tournament. But after their 13-0 win over Thailand to begin this tournament, they have scored only nine goals in their last four matches which is much closer to England’s more modest scoring efficiency. This US team has become more defensive oriented when Ellis moved Julie Ertz from the backline to the middle as a holding midfielder.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the She Believes Cup back on March 2nd which resulted in a 2-2 draw. I expect this rematch with the stakes much higher to be a defensive struggle with both teams being careful to not allow their opponents to seize scoring chances. 25* Women’s World Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-19 |
Panama v. Jamaica UNDER 2 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Jamaica (234209) and Panama (234210) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (1W-2D-0) needed help after earning a 1-1 draw with Curacao last Tuesday which they recovered when Honduras then upset El Salvador which lifted the Reggae Boyz to win Group C of this event. Panama (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to the USMNT on Wednesday. This match will be played on a neutral field on Lincoln Field Park in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jamaica thought they had a victory in hand on Tuesday until they gave up a tying goal in three minutes into extra time in that match to give Curacao the miracle draw which was the result they needed to make the Quarterfinals. The Reggae Boyz courted disaster with that result but were given a reprieve when Honduras the El Salvador team that could have overtaken them with a victory. That series of events should serve as a wake-up call to Jamaica regarding their defensive intensity. Manager Theodore Whitmore has his team win with defense. After their 3-2 victory in their opening match against Honduras, some might have thought this team has become more aggressive on the pitch — but remember that this match was played on their home soil in Kingston. In their last two matches in this tournament on neutral fields, the Reggae Boyz have scored only one goal. But they have only surrendered one goal as well. In their run to the Gold Cup Finals in 2017, Jamaica only allowed four goals in their six matches. They also scored just seven goals in those seven contests. In their last eight matches entering this showdown, the Reggae Boyz have scored only eleven times. Panama has only allowed three goals in this tournament. However, outside the 4 goals they scored against lowly Guyana, the Canal Men have scored just twice. The Red Wave feel very good about grinding out defensive contests after their experience at the World Cup last year. The problem for Panama last summer was that they scored only two goals in those three Group Stage matches. In their four friendlies this year before this tournament, the Canal Men scored only one time.
FINAL TAKE: Scoring will be hard to come by in this match between two teams that will be content to steal a goal late in this contest to earn the victory. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between Jamaica (234209) and Panama (234210) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Costa Rica v. Mexico OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Haiti last Monday. Mexico (3W-0D-0L) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play with their 3-2 victory over Martinique last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica will have an opportunity to redeem themselves from suffering an upset loss to an upstart Haiti side that rallied from a 1-0 halftime deficit to score twice in the second half. That comeback certainly raises questions about the quality of the Los Ticos backline. They also surrendered a goal to a weak Bermuda side in Group Stage play after earning a clean sheet against a disappointing Nicaragua team in their opening match. Costa Rica competed in last summer’s World Cup and gave up goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. Los Ticos should rebound with a strong effort in the role of the underdog with this opportunity to knock off Mexico who are the favorites to win this tournament. Costa Rica has scored seven times in their three games — and they have scored at least one goal in four of their last five matches in all competitions. Mexico showed some leakiness with their defense by surrendering two goals to a weak Martinique team. Issues on defense have already become an issue under new manager Tito Martino who came over after leading the Atlanta United to the MLS championship last year. The former Barcelona skipper has seen El Tri give up a goal in six of the seven matches he has coached for the national team. Mexico also gave up seven goals in their four matches in last summer’s World Cup where they also failed to register a clean sheet. There one shutout under Martino was in this tournament in their opening match against Cuba which was a team that saw their captain defect before the match started. But this El Tri group can score goals. They have a whopping thirteen goals in this event — and they have scored at least three goals in all seven matches under Martino (which have all been victories).
FINAL TAKE: This match has a 2-1 score (minimum) written all over it. Mexico will get their goals — and a feisty Costa Rica side should find the back of the net at least once. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Sweden (W) v. Germany (W) UNDER 2.25 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225989) and Germany (225990). THE SITUATION: Germany (4-0-0) won their fourth straight match in this tournament with their 3-0 win over Nigeria in the Round of 16 last Saturday. Sweden (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of this event with their 1-0 win over Canada last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Die Nationalelf has scored seven goals in their last two contests against Nigeria and South Africa — but that offensive explosion may speak more to the quality of play from African nations still looking to boost the funding for their women’s soccer programs than it does about the health of the German scoring attack. The Germans scored only two combined goals in their opening two matches against China and Spain. One of the concerns for this team entering this tournament was that they had played only four friendlies under new manager Martina Voss-Tecklenburg who took over in November last year. As Voss-Tecklenburg has put her imprint on this squad, the team has become more defensive-oriented. Not only have the Germans not surrendered a goal in this tournament, but their four opponents have managed only six shots on target spanning 360 minutes play. Sweden rebounded from their 2-0 loss to the United States with their victory over Canada. But as they showed against the Americans, the Blue and Yellow tend to struggle against opponents that are loaded with talent and that play with space. That is an apt description of what they will see from the Germans this afternoon. Goal scoring can be an issue for this team that lacks the proven goal scorers of the past that helped them reach the finals of the 2016 Olympics. Besides the five goals they scored against an overmatched Thailand team (who surrendered 13 goals against the US), Sweden has scored only three goals in their other three matches. But the Blue and Yellow are stout defensively as they have surrendered one goal outside their match with the USWNT.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden is very comfortable trying to grind out a low-scoring match. Given Germany’s new emphasis on defensive tactics, expect a low scoring match. 10* Women’s World Cup Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225989) and Germany (225990). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Japan on Tuesday. Italy (3W-0D-1L) advanced to the Quarterfinals the same day with a 2-0 victory over China.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Netherlands scored in the 90th minute on a penalty kick conversion by Lieke Martens. But the Orange Lionesses were fortunate to survive that match with Japan controlling the pace of play for the last 20 minutes of the second half while blowing a number of good scoring opportunities. Japan had 12 shots in that match. The defense for the Netherlands appeared to be the weak link for this team when they began this tournament. While Stephanie van der Gragt is a strong and physical defender, the rest of the group in the backline is a young and inexperienced group that may not be as talented as some of the defenders in the Quarterfinals. The Dutch have surrendered a goal in three straight matches. And while they did enjoy a clean sheet against New Zealand to open this tournament, remember that the Kiwis were a defensive-oriented side that scored only three goals in their three Group Stage matches before being eliminated. The Netherlands route to reaching the Semifinals will likely require them scoring multiple goals — but they have the elite forward talent that can accomplish this task with Martens joined by Vivianne Miedema and Shanice van de Sandeen along with the 22-year old Lineth Beerensteyn who has found success coming off the bench. The Orange Lionesses have scored eight goals in this tournament. The Dutch also scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches in the 2017 Euro Championship — so high scoring games were the norm for them in winning that tournament. Italy has scored nine times in this event with multiple goals scored in three of their four matches. There was plenty of action in their match with China as Le Azzurre attempted 17 shots with the Chinese making 20 shot attempts. Italy pushes the pace of play in a free-flowing style. Both teams have scored at least one goal in six of their last nine matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this match to play out similar to the Netherlands’ contest with Japan where the match became level at 1-1 about midway before a team broke out to score a second goal. 25* Women’s World Cup FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
Chile v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). THE SITUATION: Colombia (3W-0D-0L) won all three of their Group Stage matches after they defeated Paraguay by a 1-0 score last Sunday. Chile (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colombia has scored four goals in their three victories — and they have not surrendered a goal in their three Group Stage matches. But after registering a clean sheet against the mess that remains the current Argentina national team (despite having Lionel Messi), Los Cafeteros have not faced offensive juggernauts in Qatar and then Paraguay on Sunday. Paraguay generated 10 shots while controlling possession for 54% of that match — so it is not as if Colombia has been stifling on the defensive end of the pitch. Los Cafeteros play their two fullbacks high which makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Their backline is considered their biggest vulnerability. This team also has the reputation of folding versus elite teams — and they continued to enable that perception with losses last summer to Japan and then England in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. Colombia is winless in their last nine matches against a Chile team that is the two-time defending champions of the Copa America. I suspect that Los Cafeteros will surrender at least one goal — but they should also score at least once in this match. Colombia plays a direct style with a possession-based attack. They are led by one of the best-attacking midfielders in the world in James Rodriguez who was a breakout star for them in Brazil (this locale this summer) in the 2014 World Cup. He is complemented by a veteran attacker in Radamel Falcao. They will be challenged by a Chile side that showed grit and determination in their 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday. La Roja seems to be an aging team with Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas, and Arturo Vidal all past their primes. But this group controlled possession for 59% of their match against Uruguay before losing to an Edinson Cavani goal in the 82nd. Chile had a healthy 12 shots in that match. They have scored six times in this tournament as their loss on Monday was their first match in their last nine where they did not score at least one goal. La Roja’s defense takes a hit tonight with one of their leaders on their backline, Gary Medal, a doubt with an injury.
FINAL TAKE: Chile has scored and conceded at least one goal in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. I see both teams scoring in this match in what should be full of drama. Colombia wants to grab the torch from La Roja — but this proud Chile side will be very difficult to dethrone as the two-time reigning Copa America champions. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
USA (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Spain on Monday. France (4-0-0) made it to the Quarterfinals the day before with their 2-1 victory over Brazil that required the extra 30 minutes of time to resolve a 1-1 score after 90 minutes.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have potent offenses that tend to overwhelm lesser opponents. The question in handicapping this match is to discern whether or not the respective managers will continue to play aggressively or instead embrace more defensive tactics in this showdown that might very well determine the winner of this tournament. France manager Corinne Diacre tends to have her team play more cautiously when facing elite competition. A 1-0 win over Australia in April along with a 2-0 win over the Matildas last October and a 1-0 loss to Germany on February 28th of this year is evidence of this tactic. And after their opening 4-0 win over the Korea Republic, Les Bleus have scored only five combined goals (in 285 minutes of play). France managed only three shots on goal against Brazil on Sunday as their frontline struggled against the physical Brazilian backline. Les Bleus forwards and midfielders have too often appeared too scripted while lacking the cohesion of clicking together in more creative opportunities. That is not a good sign when facing an American team that has registered 18 clean sheets in their last 23 matches. Team USA saw their clean sheet streak of seven matches snapped on Monday against Spain. Perhaps not coincidentally, manager Jill Ellis did not start Lindsey Horan in that match out of fear that she would be whistled with a second yellow card which would suspend her for this showdown. Getting Horan back helps the US team on both ends of the pitch — but don’t underestimate her defensive capabilities particularly in tackling opposing players move the ball up the pitch. A key question for Ellis is what her starting midfield will be — particularly, whether or not she will start holding midfielder, Julie Ertz. I think she does as the Stars and Stripes improved significantly when Ertz was converted from the backline to the midfield to improve the defensive presence of this team — and it helps explain the clean sheet run the team is on. Questions have developed for the USWNT on offense after they managed only two shots on net against Spain. It is not a good sign that both their goals scored were from penalty kicks. Alex Morgan has been scoreless in her last three games as she seems to be slowed by nagging injuries. Megan Rapinoe is out of form on the pitch despite her two penalty kick goals on Monday. Spain provided a blueprint as to how to slow down the American attack: cut off the service to forwards, press the sometimes shaky US backline, and play rough with their attackers once they find a dangerous scoring position. With central defenders Wendie Renard and Griddle Mbock Bathy, Les Bleus have the prototype physical defenders that can make things difficult for the American attackers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times since March of 2017. The USA has scored only two goals in those three matches. This past success on defense will likely compel Diacre to have her team play cautiously with the advantage of playing this match on home soil in Paris. And I think Ellis will not have her squad push the agenda too hard precisely because this is a true road contest with the hopes that the skill and experience of her players will eventually make the difference. Expect no more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-19 |
England (W) v. Norway (W) UNDER 2.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-123 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225977) and Norway (225978) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Norway (3W-0D-1L) advanced from the Round of 16 last Saturday by defeating Australia in the shootout by a 4-1 score after 120 minutes of play that saw those two sides deadlocked at 1-1. England (4W-0D-0L) defeated Cameroon on Sunday with a 3-0 victory to reach the Quarterfinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England has allowed only one goal in this tournament in their four matches against Scotland in their opening match. The Three Lionesses have registered three straight clean sheets to help them reach the Quarterfinals. But manager Phil Neville has a significant challenge on his hands this afternoon with both his starting center backs being major doubts to play this afternoon. Captain Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury she suffered last Saturday and Millie Bright is under the weather with an illness that has impacted the team over the last few days. Neville will likely have to turn to backups Leah Williamson and Abbie McManus to start this match at center back. This is far from ideal. The knee-jerk reaction might be for some bettors to assume that the absence of these two starters on the backline of the England starting XI will lead to a higher scoring match. I suspect that this situation will compel Neville to instruct his players to play more cautiously particularly by keeping his midfielders back in more defensive holding positions. The Three Lionesses still have Lucy Bronze at right back who might be the best defensive player in the world. Neville will likely have his team choose their battles carefully given these injuries. Norway has allowed three goals in this tournament — but two of those goals were against the powerful host nation, France. Cohesion and chemistry are two advantages for this team anchored by a backline of Chelsea teammates Maren Mjedle and Maria Thorisdottir. Australia is one of the most prolific offensive teams in the world with an aggressive pressure system complemented by one of the best strikers in the world in Sam Kerr. Yet the Matildas scored only one goal in 120 minutes of play when accounting for the 30 minutes of extra time. The Grass Hoppers have scored seven times in their four matches (which includes those 30 extra minutes against Australia) — but keep in mind that one of those goals was an own goal by the French.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both sides to play conservatively in this match with the tension high to not surrender the first goal. 10* Women’s World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (225977) and Norway (225978) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-19 |
United States v. Panama OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). THE SITUATION: The USMNT (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup with their 6-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago last Saturday. Panama (2-0-0) joined them in the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 4-2 victory over Guyana on Saturday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The US Men’s National Team enjoyed their best effort under new manager Gregg Berhalter in this match which offered the team a small modicum of revenge against a Trinidad and Tobago team that eliminated them from qualifying for the 2018 World Cup back in November of 2017. Getting players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie playing together for an extended period of time is certainly helping to build cohesion for this team. The offensive attack is looking up with the Stars and Stripes having scored ten goals in their two matches. And Berhalter deserves credit for his halftime adjustments considering that eight of these ten goals have been scored after halftime. Berhalter has installed a new system for the American national team that emphasizes possession along with counter pressing to retake control of the ball. This is an approach that can help produce blowout wins against overmatched foes (like Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana who were their first two opponents). The USA has generated a whopping 39 steals so far in this tournament. But defense remains an issue for this team despite them pony allowing 13 shots in their first two matches. Team USA struggled on defense in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela and a 1-0 loss to Jamaica in their last final two friendlies before this tournament. The Stars and Stripes lack quality center defenders — and Michael Bradley is their only midfielder with quality defensive skills (with Mckenzie who stars as a holding midfielder playing in Bundesliga being asked to play up on the pitch by Berhalter). Don’t be surprised if Panama finds plenty of scoring opportunities when they beat the American counter-press. Los Canaleros are also happy to counter-attack to regain possession as well — they have 34 steals in their first two matches in this tournament. Panama has scored six times in their two matches after taking 19 shots against Guyana with eight of them on target. The Red Wave are entering a new generation this year after seeing the retirement of longtime leaders in Blas Perez and Felipe Baloy. But this group will not be intimidated by playing the United States since they were actually in Russia last summer playing soccer in the World Cup while the Americans watched on television. Panama lost all three of their World Cup matches but they scored two goals while surrendering eleven goals with all three of their matches seeing at least three combined goals scored. Los Canaleros are 6W-4D-2L in their last twelve matches in the Gold Cup — and they have displayed prowess on the offensive side of the pitch in those matches by scoring 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 27th in a friendly where the United States won by a 3-0 score. First place in Group D is at stake with a match with Curacao in the Quarterfinals — and that is a more attractive opening match in the Knockout Stage than the loser’s match in the Quarterfinals with Jamaica. Both teams should be playing to win — expect a higher scoring match between two teams that push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-19 |
Japan (W) v. Netherlands (W) OVER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Japan (225973) and the Netherlands (225974). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (3W-0D-0L) completed their perfect mark in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over Canada last Thursday. Japan (1W-1D-1L) looks to rebound from a 2-0 loss to England last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The conventional wisdom regarding Japan in this tournament is that they have struggled in their attack. It might be hard to argue with that conclusion when considering that they have scored only two goals in their three Group Stage matches. But the Nadeshiko Japan has not parked the bus in their back end to focus primarily on stopping their opponent from scoring. After a passive first half against Argentina in their opening match where neither team attempted a shot on target, Japan stepped up their pressure while controlling the ball for 72% of that match. They played much better in their second match against Scotland where they attempted 19 shots with seven on target in what ended in a 2-1 victory. We then had a big play on England in their third match — but Japan had opportunities to score in that match. They controlled possession for 48% of that match against a strong Three Lions side that will be playing in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. They outshot England by a 16 to 14 margin. The Nadeshiko Japan is a side in transition that has gone younger after failing to qualify for the 2016 Olympics. But this remains a very proud national program that won the 2011 World Cup before losing in the Finals of the 2015 World Cup. I expect their continued pressure that they have applied on offense to score at least one goal against a Netherlands back end that is the weak link of that team. Japan’s backline can also be a bit leaky as they demonstrated in their loss to England — and they are facing a Dutch team that has more offensive firepower. Japan surrendered six goals in their three matches in the Algarve Cup earlier this year. That nil-nil draw with Argentina to open this tournament was their only clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Netherlands have scored six goals in their three matches in this tournament. The Dutch women have an elite trio on their frontline with Vivianne Miedema, Shanice van de Sanden, and superstar Lieke Martens. The Three Lionesses also have a strong group of midfielders led by Danielle van de Donk. The Three Lionesses entered this event having scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches against Australia, Chile, and Mexico in friendlies.
FINAL TAKE: The last time these two teams played was in the 2018 Algarve Cup which the Netherlands won by a 6-2 score. While I do not expect that many goals to be scored this afternoon, I do see at least three combined goals scored. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Japan (225973) and the Netherlands (225974). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-19 |
China (W) v. Italy (W) UNDER 2 |
|
0-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (225970) and China (225969). THE SITUATION: Italy (2-0-1) enters the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Brazil last Tuesday. China (1-1-1) ensured their spot in the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw with Spain last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: China has scored only one goal in their three matches in Group Stage play — but they have allowed only goal in those three matches as well. They opened this tournament with a 1-0 loss to Germany before earning a 1-0 win over South Africa. The Steel Roses were cowardly on offense in their 0-0 draw with Spain last week as they managed a mere one shot in the entire match. China plays very physical on defense in a style of play that borderlines on being dirty. This roughness has the ambition of forcing their opponent to make mistakes. China will be very content to play a scoreless draw through the 120 minutes of play on the pitch in this knockout round to take their chances with penalty kicks. But the Steel Roses controlled possession in just 37% of their match against Spain after controlling the ball in only 42% of their opening match with Germany. Italy plays outstanding defense. After allowing only four goals in their eight World Cup qualifying matches, Italy has surrendered only two goals in this tournament. A clean sheet is very likely against this Chia side that has scored only one goal in their three Group Stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: China has seen five of their last eight matches result on one of less combined goals scored. This is a product of their commitment to defense at the expense of applying almost zero pressure on the other end of the pitch. I think the likelihood of three combined goals being scored is low. Let’s take our chances on a 1-0 or 0-0 result. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Italy (225970) and China (225969). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-19 |
Canada (W) v. Sweden (W) OVER 1.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Sweden (225966) and Canada (225965). THE SITUATION: Sweden (2-0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 2-0 loss to the United States on Thursday. Canada (2-0-1) also looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss to the Netherlands on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Total is set at 2 for this match (and even lower in some spots) since this is a Round of 16 matches between two teams that feature outstanding defenses. These two teams also played in March in the Algarve Cup with that result being a nil-nil draw that Canada won via Penalty Kicks. This time around, I expect both teams to score at least once in the first 90 minutes. Remember, if and when one team gets on the board first, the pressure will be enormous for the other side to play more aggressively to level the score. That ambition creates scoring opportunities for both sides. Canada is considered a light scoring team with only Christine Sinclair offering the Reds a credible scoring option. But the Leaf Girls have scored in all three of their Group Stage matches with Jessie Fleming, Kadeisha Buchanan, and Nichelle Prince scoring along with Sinclair in this tournament. The Netherlands also scored twice on the Canadian defense to demonstrate that they are not invulnerable in back. Sweden has scored seven times in this World Cup. And while they endured a clean sheet at the hands of the United States, there is little shame in that when considering that the Stars and Stripes have registered clean sheets in seven of their last eight World Cup matches (before today). The Blue and Yellow scored 22 times in their eight matches in the qualification rounds.
FINAL TAKE: Look for both sides to score this afternoon with a 2-1 result in the first 90 minutes very possible. 10* Women’s World Cup Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Sweden (225966) and Canada (225965). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-19 |
Cameroon (W) v. England (W) UNDER 3 |
|
0-3 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225953) and England (225954). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-0) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play on Wednesday with their 2-0 win over Japan. Cameroon (1-0-2) scored a dramatic goal in the 95th minute on Thursday to eke out a 2-1 win over New Zealand (while ruining our Under play) to provide them the crucial 3 points necessary to become one of the four third-place teams from Group Stage play to advance to the Knockout Stage Round of 16.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has new life after pulling out that win over the Kiwis. They will be a dangerous adversary to the Three Lionesses as the underdog with no expectations in this match. But dismissing the Indomitable Lions would be a mistake for England. Cameroon also made it to the Round of 16 in the 2015 World Cup where they narrowly lost to China by a 1-0 score. While it is true that the Indomitable Lions have allowed their opponent to score at least one goal in six straight World Cup matches, they have faced a very difficult schedule during that stretch. Five of those six opponents who scored goals against them reached the Round of 16. Cameroon has implemented a defensive approach that has been pretty successful. The 5-4-1 structure they deployed in their opening match against Canada resulted in a narrow 1-0 loss. They changed that form to a 4-3-3 in their second match against the Netherlands — and while the 3-1 loss looks dominant on paper, they held the Dutch scoreless for the first 41 minutes of that match and entered halftime with a tie 1-1 score. Cameroon has also only scored three times in this tournament after scoring just three times in their last three World Cup matches in 2015. Their outlier match in 2015 was an opening round 6-0 blowout victory over an overmatched Ecuador side. England has been outstanding on defense so far in this tournament by only allowing one goal against Scotland. But while the Lionesses have scored five goals in their three matches, the fluid attacking style that manager Phil Neville has attempted to implement has often gotten stuck. England striker Fran Kirby has struggled in this tournament after entering this event out of form with talk that she is suffering from various injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The heat will play a factor in this match with the temperature rising above 30 degree Celsius for this contest in Valenciennes. That is Las Vegas weather which will be a challenge for England. Neville has rotated his roster well so far in these games — and he adapts his team’s approach based off their opponent. Look for the Three Lionesses to play conservatively to maintain their defensive integrity with the expectation that their talent and depth will ultimately overwhelm the Indomitable Lions. On the other side, I expect Cameroon manager Alain Djeumfa to go back to that 5-4-1 defensive approach that kept them alive in that opening match against a tough Canadian team. 10* Women’s World Cup Cameroon-England FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225953) and England (225954). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Australia (W) v. Norway (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). THE SITUATION: Norway (2-0-1) finished with six points in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over South Korea on Monday. Australia (2-0-1) also punched their ticket into the Knockout Stage with a decisive 4-1 victory over Jamaica on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Sam Kerr scored four times on Tuesday against the Reggae Girlz to propel the Matildas to eight goals scored in their three matches which is the second most for any team in this tournament. Australia is a high-scoring team with their pressing style under manager Ante Milicic. But this high-risk/high-reward approach makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks especially when considering that their backline has some deficiencies. The Matildas have surrendered five goals in their three Group State matches. This style also tends to enable wild contests. Australia blew a 1-0 lead in their opening match against Italy that resulted in a 2-1 loss — but their aggressive tactics were exactly what they needed against Brazil as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat them by a 3-2 score. With talents like Kerr and Caitlin Foord up top, it makes sense for the Matildas to deploy this approach. But in a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands and a 5-3 loss to the United States in the lead up to this tournament, this strategy has its vulnerabilities. This Norway team is very good despite being without their best player, Ada Hegerberg, who is boycotting participation with the national team given their unequal treatment of women’s athletics. The Grass Hoppers have scored five goals in this tournament which a 2-1 loss to the host nation, France, who are one of the top favorites to lift the championship trophy. Norway still has quality players — led by Caroline Graham Hansen who is expected to play this afternoon after suffering a knock in that match with South Korea this week. The Grass Hoppers scored 22 goals in their eight qualifying matches for this World Cup. As one of the traditional European powers that have won a World Cup back in 1995, they have a balanced and talented group of players who should find plenty of scoring opportunities in a counter-attack against the aggressive tactics of Australia. But I am concerned about their defense after allowing South Korea to attempt 22 shots against them on Tuesday.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year in the Algarve Cup with Australia pulling out a 4-3 shootout. While seven combined goals may be too much to expect in this contest, I do expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Nigeria (W) v. Germany (W) OVER 3 |
|
0-3 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Germany (225945) and Nigeria (225946). THE SITUATION: Germany (3-0-0) completed their perfect Group Stage mark with a 4-0 win over South Africa on Monday. Nigeria (1-0-2) lost to France on Monday by a 1-0 score but were able to advance to the Knockout Stage as one of the four qualifying third-place teams.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The challenge for Germany has been to respond to the broken toe of their best player, Dzsenifer Marozsan. The midfielder suffered this injury in their opening 1-0 victory over China at this event. Die Nationalelf has missed her presence on the pitch particularly on offense as she entered this tournament with 32 goals in 98 caps for the national team. Germany still looked sluggish on offense in their second match which resulted in a 1-0 win over Spain. However, this German side enjoyed their best offensive effort in this World Cup campaign by scoring four times against the South Africans which suggests they have found some chemistry moving forward. Die Nationalelf still has plenty of scoring talent on their roster — they scored 38 goals in their qualifying rounds which were nine more goals than the next highest prolific scoring team. The tactics this team uses under manager Martina Voss-Tecklenburg is to deploy quick and decisive attacks from their front six while pressing their opponents when they have possession. Five different players have scored goals for this team in this tournament to display their balanced attack. And Sara Dabritz has stepped up in Marozsan’s absence by scoring twice as she has taken her spot on the pitch as an advancing midfielder. But Dabritz taking on this role moves her away from her strength as a holding defensive midfielder — and this is dangerous for the Germans since their aggressive style makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks with their relatively slow center backs on their back line. I expect Nigeria to score at least one goal against this German team that has not surrendered a goal yet in this tournament. The Super Falcons have only scored twice in this tournament — but they have three uber-talented forwards with speed and skills who thrive when counterattacking. Nigeria was in defensive mode against host nation France on Monday knowing that getting smothered in that match would derail their goal differential which would play a crucial role in tie-breakers to make the Round of 16. Look for the Super Falcons to play more aggressively — especially if they fall behind in this one-and-done situation at this point of the tournament. Nigeria scored seven goals in their four matches earlier this year in the Cyprus Women’s Tournament. But the vulnerability of these Super Falcons is their defense as they lack players that have the characteristics of true defenders or midfielders — and this weakness will be compounded today with the suspension of defender, Ngori Ebere, who was whistled for two yellow cards on Monday.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a higher-scoring match given the matchup of styles of two teams that are direct in their attacks while emphasizing the use of speedy wings go and up and down the pitch. Even without Marozsan, Germany will score goals — and I do expect Nigeria to score at least once. 10* World Cup Germany-Nigeria FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Germany (225945) and Nigeria (225946). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Curacao v. Honduras UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). THE SITUATION: Curacao (0-0-1) lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 1-0 loss to El Salvador on Monday. Honduras (0-0-1) also lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 3-2 loss to Jamaica on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at Houston’s BBVA Compass Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Curacao did not display much energy on the offensive end of the pitch against El Salvador. They managed only three shots in that contest as they never tested the Salvador goalkeeper, Henry Hernandez. This is just the second Gold Cup ever for this island colony of the Netherlands. This team failed to score a goal in their three Group Stage matches in the 2017 Gold Cup. But this team is not necessarily pushovers either with the majority of the roster playing in the professional leagues of the Netherlands. In their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifiers, Curacao allowed only two goals while producing three clean sheets. Honduras has only scored four goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Los Catrachos did not score a goal in their four Gold Cup matches in 2017. But they only allowed five goals in those four matches which culminated in a narrow 1-0 loss in the Quarterfinals to Mexico. The three goals they allowed against Jamaica needs to be taken with some context as the Reggae Boyz were playing on their home pitch in Kington in National Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: Honduras was able to make the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with just one point given their draw with Canada which ended in a scoreless draw — so do not underestimate the value these teams put in a nil-nil result. With the Total set at 2.5, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group C Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Bermuda v. Costa Rica UNDER 4 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Bermuda (234245) and Costa Rica (234246). THE SITUATION: Bermuda (0-0-1) played in their first Gold Cup match ever on Sunday in what resulted in a 2-1 loss to Haiti. Costa Rica (1-0-0) won their opening match in this event on Sunday with their easy 4-0 win over Nicaragua. This match will be played on a true neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas which is a suburb of Dallas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica had an easy time of it on Sunday against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — but they also benefitted from hosting that game in what was the first Gold Cup contest ever to be played outside the United States, Canada or Mexico. Their offensive display that demonstrated in that match probably said more about their comfort of playing on their home pitch than it did about their scoring prowess moving forward. They only had 15 shots in the match — so they were scoring goals at a very high-efficiency rate relative to the pressure they were applying. Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they entered this tournament with a discouraging 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard — but with 3 points already under their belts, so reaching the Quarterfinals is likely, there is no reason to open up their attack. Bermuda is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. Their offense was mostly stagnant against Haiti in what was their first ever match in a Golden Cup event. In fact, this is just the second international tournament for the Gombey Warriors in the history of the national program. Manager Kyle Lightbourne will likely have his team play a defensive-oriented scheme with the goal of just keeping the final score respectable with amateurs and semipros complementing their captain, Dante Leverock, on their backline. In going 3-0-1 in their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, Bermuda only allowed four goals.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another clean sheet for Costa Rica with their strong defense of quality MLS players that have recent World Cup experience under their belts. I do not see Los Ticos scoring many goals in what should be an easy win for them. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the match between Bermuda (234245) and Costa Rica (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
USA (W) v. Sweden (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). THE SITUATION: The United States (2-0-0) has won their first two matches in this World Cup with their 3-0 win over Chile last Saturday. Sweden (2-0-0) also has six points with two victories in their first two games with their 5-1 win over Thailand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be very tempting for bettors to take the Over after Team USA racked up thirteen goals in their opening victory against Thailand. This Stars and Stripes team is loaded with scoring talent — and their midfielders and fullbacks like to play up the pitch. But a draw is enough of a result for the USA to win first place in Group F which is their immediate goal. This US team also needs to build skill and cohesion in their backline with two converted attackers being inserted into those two fullback positions by manager Jill Ellis. This contest against a good Swedish team is an opportunity to work on technical tactics. This team has dominated both their opponents as they have surrounded only three combined shots with neither opponent controlling possession for more than 30% of the contest. Team USA has not allowed a goal in their last six matches. They will face a Sweden team that is very familiar with their schemes and tactics. This will be the fourth meeting between these two national teams in the last five major international tournaments. The Blue and Yellow were triumphant in the last meeting between these two teams where the Swedes pulled the big upset in the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics. Sweden’s conservative tactics where they play with a high back-line on the pitch while searching for opportunities to counter-attack is the anti-American scheme given their Stars and Stripes typical aggressiveness. The Blagurt have veterans in their middle field and a defensive line who have played in many of those matches with the Americans. Sweden also has an elite goalkeeper in Hedvi Lindhal playing in perhaps her last World Cup at 36-years old. Sweden has scored seven times in this tournament which is a bit of an aberration for this team. They scored only four goals in their four matches in the 2017 Euro Championship which ended in a disappointing loss in the Quarterfinals to the Netherlands. They scored just five times in their four matches in the 2015 World Cup where they lost in the Round of 16. They entered this tournament with just four goals in their previous four matches. But they surrendered a mere one goal in those final four matches — and they gave up only two goals in their eight World Cup Qualifying matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a tactical contest — especially with the stakes relatively low since both teams have clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. In the last five meetings between these two sides since 2013, all five matches saw no more than two combined goals scored. It was a nil-nil draw when these two teams faced off in the Group Stage of the 2015 World Cup. 25* Women’s World Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Canada (W) v. Netherlands (W) UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-139 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225934) and Canada (225933). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (2-0-0) won their second straight match in this World Cup with their 3-1 win over Cameroon. Canada (2-0-0) has also won their first two matches in this tournament with their 2-0 win over New Zealand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange Lionesses eked out a 1-0 over New Zealand in their opening match in this event — so they have conceded only one goal in their first two matches. While defense appears to be the weak link for this team that won the 2017 Euro Championship as the host nation, the Dutch have secured four clean sheets in their last five matches. In the 2015 World Cup where they lost to Japan in the Round of 16, the Netherlands scored only three goals in their four matches while conceding just four goals. Three of those four matches that year saw two combined goals or less — including a 1-1 draw with Canada in the Group Stage. Canada has enjoyed two clean sheets in this tournament after they opened Group Stage play with a 1-0 win over Cameroon. Remarkably, the Reds have yet to allow either of their two opponents to have a shot attempt on target. Led by center back Kadehisha Buchanan, the Canucks have an outstanding defense. But these defensive tactics make them too dependent at times on the creativity up front of their 36-year old captain, Christine Sinclair. In their nine matches this year before this tournament, Canada scored only eight combined goals. But the Reds have allowed only one goal in their last ten matches — and less than three combined goals have been scored in eight of their last ten contests.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams already clinched spots in the Knockout State, the managers of both these teams may decide to put their foot off the proverbial accelerator to save energy for the Round of 16. Expect a conservative game from both sides. 10* World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225934) and Canada (225933). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-19 |
New Zealand (W) v. Cameroon (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). THE SITUATION: Cameroon (0-0-2) has lost their two World Cup contests after suffering a 3-1 setback to the Netherlands last Saturday. New Zealand (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this tournament after their 2-0 loss to Canada on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has only scored one goal in their two matches after they lost to Canada by a 1-0 score. The Indomitable Lions are a team on the rise with 12 players back from the group that competed in the 2015 World Cup. This team’s defense can be shaky on the defensive end of the pitch — but allowing three goals to a potent Netherlands attack is not terribly surprising. Manager Alain Djeumfa has had his team embrace defensive tactics to compensate for this potential deficiency while banking on the counterattacking skills of speedy forwards like Gabrielle Onguene and Galla Enganamouit. But this approach has contributed to a toothless attack for the Indomitable Lions. They did not generate a shot on target in their opening match against Canada. And while their offensive activity improved against the Netherlands, they managed only 11 shots with just four on target. Controlling possession has been an issue as they had the ball for just 39% of their match with the Dutch after controlling possession in just 26% of their match against Canada. New Zealand may play on their front foot in this match like they often do when facing the inferior competition of the Oceania Football Confederation. The Football Ferns play solid defense on the grandest of international stages — and that should not go away in this contest. New Zealand has allowed only three goals against the Netherlands and Canada who enter this third match with two wins apiece. But the Kiwis have yet to score in this event. They did not manage a shot on target against Canada while managing just three shots on target against the Dutch. New Zealand has only generated seven total shots in their two matches. In the 2015 World Cup, the Football Ferns scored only twice in their three matches but only surrendered three goals. Cameroon made it to the Knockout Stage in 2015 on the strength of a 6-0 win over an overmatched Ecuador side — but it is their 1-0 loss to China in the Round of 16 that will likely be a harbinger as to how this match will be played out.
FINAL TAKE: One side earning a clean sheet in this match is pretty high when considering that New Zealand has seen at least one side go scoreless in nine of their last ten matches. Eight of the last ten matches played by the Kiwis have seen less than three combined goals scored. Both teams need a victory — and then help with goal differential — to advance to the Knockout Stage. However, since a draw helps neither side — I expect the first team to score in this match will then park the bus in back to do everything they can to preserve that lead. 25* World Cup Group E Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-19 |
Brazil (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-136 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brazil (225917) and Italy (225918). THE SITUATION: Brazil (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 loss to Australia last Thursday in their second World Cup match. Italy (2-0-0) remained undefeated in this tournament on Friday when they crushed Jamaica by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Italy has been one of the surprises of the tournament after they upset Australia by a 2-1 score in their opening match. The Azzurre have scored seven goals in their first two matches while showing nice balance with their offensive attack. Italy has three players in Barbara Bonansea, Cristiana Girelli, and Aurora Galli who have already scored multiple goals in this event. In their last four friendlies before this tournament started, Italy scored nine goals. Manager Milena Bertolini has implemented a free-flowing style of play for this team that is playing their first World Cup in twenty years. But considering the prominent role that soccer plays in that nation, it should not be much of a surprise that the Blues have plenty of talent available to them. Entering this tournament, it looked like Italy would be a defensive-oriented team as they conceded only four goals in their eight World Cup qualifying matches. But perhaps the writing was on the wall for their style of play this summer given the six goals they allowed in those last four friendlies. Italy has seen both teams score in six of their last seven matches with their only clean sheet coming against a minnow side in Jamaica. Brazil is fighting their lives to reach the Knockout Stage — so they will likely play very aggressively this afternoon as they look to score goals. The Selecao have scored five goals in their first two matches — but their defense was exposed last week with Australia rallying from a 2-0 deficit to win that match by scoring three goals in just over 45 minutes of play. This is the last hurrah for the golden generation for the Brazilian national team — and they may be too old and slow for younger opponents. The Selecao has registered only one clean sheet in their last thirteen matches with that also being against the Reggae Girlz. Brazil may not have the services of their leader, Marta, who missed the first match and then left the match with the Aussies at halftime after suffering a knock. Cristiane has stepped up in her absence by scoring four goals so far in this event.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams prefer to play on their front foot to push the pace of play. With Brazil needing goals to help in the tie-breaker, expect a high scoring match. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Brazil (225917) and Italy (225918). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-19 |
Australia (W) v. Jamaica (W) OVER 4.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). THE SITUATION: Australia (1-0-1) earned their three points last Thursday with a 3-2 victory over Brazil. Jamaica (0-0-2) lost their second straight match in the World Cup by losing to Italy by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia found themselves in dire straits as they trailed the Brazilians by a 2-0 score — and that came after suffering a 2-1 upset loss to Italy in their opening match. But the Matildas scored a late goal in extra time of the first half to get on the board and they completed their three-goal rally by scoring twice in the second half to stun the Selecao. That comeback victory should trigger confidence in this Australian team that limped into the World Cup with two straight losses. Expectations have never been higher for this Matildas team that has reached the Quarterfinals in the last three World Cups as well as the 2016 Olympics. This is probably the best roster this national team has ever assembled. But a 5-3 loss to the USA on May 3rd followed by a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands on June 1st left some questions on the table for this group. Australia is loaded with scoring firepower led by their 25-year old captain, Sam Kerr, who is one of the best goal scorers in the world. New manager Ante Milicic (who took over amidst scandal from the previous dirtbag manager of the Matildas) implemented a high-risk/high-reward pressing system a la the schemes used by Liverpool and Manchester City in the English Premier League. The goal is to create more scoring opportunities to take better advantage of their elite talent of Kerr and other players like forward Caitlin Foord. It worked for a bit against the US as those tactics created a 2-1 lead in that April friendly match. But the risk of pushing forward on the attack with left and right backs, Steph Catley and Ellie Carpenter, jetting up the pitch to support their scoring opportunities is that they become very vulnerable to counter attacks. Team USA burned them by rallying to score three goals to win that match before the Dutch scored three more goals against them in that last friendly. Australia has scored and conceded four goals in their first two World Cup matches. With three points and tied with Brazil for second place in Group C play, goal differential may play a critical role as a tie-breaker. That means that the Matildas are highly likely to keep their foot on the proverbial accelerator in this match as they look to pile on the goals. But this strategy risks them conceding goals to the Reggae Girlz. Frankly, this Jamaica team is happy to be competing at this event after seeing their program dormant from 2008 to 2014. The daughter of Bob Marley, Cedella Marley, infused the national team with money to jumpstart the women’s team who then qualified for this World Cup with their third place finish in last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifier. The Reggae Girlz are young and inexperienced with seven of their players under the age of 22. But they are fast and happy to take their chances on the counter-attack. They have conceded eight goals in their two matches — but they have dynamic goal scorers led by Khadijah “Bunny” Shaw. The former Tennessee Volunteer has 31 goals in 23 caps for the national team and is an imposing presence on the pitch with her 5’11 frame. Jamaica had scored nine goals in their last four friendlies before this tournament — but they also allowed seven goals in those four matches.
FINAL TAKE: Australia should win this match easily as they press to score as many goals as they can to help their positioning. Winning Group C remains possible if Brazil defeats an undefeated Italian team — but they will need to plenty of goals to seize the goal differential tie-breaker. Jamaica is leaky on their back end — but I will not be surprised if they leave this match relatively happy by scoring their first ever goal in World Cup competition. 25* Women’s World Cup Group C Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-19 |
Nicaragua v. Costa Rica UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (0-0-0) the first CONCACAF Gold Cup match ever to be played on their home soil. Los Ticos finished 0-1-2 in their three Group Stage matches in last summer’s World Cup. Costa Rica reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup before losing to the USMNT. Nicaragua (0-0-0) plays in their first international tournament sine that 2017 Gold Cup where they lost all three of their matches in Group Stage play.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they are just 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Getting too cute now would be a disaster for Los Ticos against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — especially when playing at home. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard. Nicaragua is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. The Pinoleros privilege defensive tactics with the hope that their captain, Juan Barrera, can find scoring opportunities in the counter-attack. Nicaragua has scored only one goal in their six matches ever played in Gold Cup competitions. And in the twelve previous meetings between these two nations, the Pinoleros have scored only eight times. All three of their matches in the 2017 Gold Cup did not see more than three combined goals scored. In their last five matches, Nicaragua has scored only four times with two of those goals occurring in a 2-2 draw with Bolivia back on March 3rd in a friendly.
FINAL TAKE: Costa Rica will not have their veteran superstar goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, this summer with his status with Real Madrid up in the air. Los Ticos did not have Navas in the 2017 Gold Cup either but that did not slow this side down against North American competition. A clean sheet is highly likely for Costa Rica tonight — but they are not likely to score more than two goals (and certainly not three goals which would Push the most common Total of 3). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-19 |
Norway (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). THE SITUATION: Norway (1-0-0) won their opening match of the 2019 Women’s World Cup with a dominant 3-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. France (1-0-0) began this tournament as the host nation last Friday with a 4-0 victory over South Korea.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With both sides securing sizable victories in their opening match, the significance of this match lightens a bit since advancement to the Round of 16 Knockout Stage should be in pretty good shape. Given that, both teams may play a bit more cautiously since a big loss hurts their goal differential which could become an issue if they either team would not secure at least the one point with a draw in their final Group Stage match. France is more a reserved side than the group that lost in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 World Cup in Canada. Roster turnover explains most of that with a previous generation of goal scorers retiring. Les Blues are one of the top favorites to win this event not only because they are the host nation but because their national squad is dominated by the French professional club in Lyon that is — by far — the best women’s professional team in the world. But Lyon’s best attackers play for other national teams. However, the core group of the French defense are Lyon starters in Wendie Renard, Griddle MBock Bathy, and Amel Majri along with their keeper, Sarah Bouhaddi. National teams that have a cluster of starters who play together on their national team gives them an edge in cohesion — so this should be a very tight defensive group this summer. Renard scored twice in their win over South Korea — but don’t expect a defender to score goals on a regular basis for this team. France tends to play lower scoring matches against the better teams in the world. Their last loss was in a friendly to Germany by a 1-0 score back on February 28th. They defeated Australia by a 2-0 score on October 5th while also beating 1-0 win over Canada on April 9th. Les Bleus did lose to Team USA by a 3-1 score on January 9th in a friendly — but that match may have sent a message to manager Corinne Diacre. Even playing on their home soil, the French probably cannot get into a shootout with the Americans. On the heels of the Stars and Stripes 13-0 win over Thailand yesterday, this may be a match where Diacre wants her side to focus on defensive tactics and counter-attacks. In their 2015 World Cup run where they lost on the Quarterfinals to England via Penalty Kicks after a 1-1 score in extra time, France had their clean sheets and three of their five matches result on less than three combined goals (after squashes against Mexico and South Korea). Norway manager Martin Sjogren has already indicated that she will have her side play more cautiously in this contest as they look to neutralize a French attack and look to score on counters. The Grasshoppers are without their best attacker — and probably the best female player in the world — in Ada Hegerberg — who is boycotting her participation with her national team that continues to treat women’s soccer with second class status as compared to their middling men’s side. Norway had three goals against a Nigeria team that is shaky on defense — but that final goal was an Own Goal by the African Cup champs. Norway remains a solid team without Hegerberg who can still make a deep run in the Knockout Stage if they develop confidence and cohesion. They also have cohesion in their backline with Chelsea teammates Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir — and they are joined by a potential superstar in Graham Hansen who has something to prove after a knee injury kept her out of the 2015 World Cup. Even a 1-0 loss to Les Bleus could be a psychological victory for the Grasshoppers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have not seen more than two combined goals scored in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Expect a low scoring match — especially given the situation they have given the early events of this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-19 |
Barcelona FC v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). THE S|TUATION: Barcelona won the first leg of the two-leg Champions League Semifinals with a 3-0 win over Liverpool last Wednesday. The second-leg match moves to Liverpool’s home field at Anfield Stadium. The Reds must at least three goals to stay alive to advance to the Finals. A 3-0 Liverpool victory in regulation time forces two fifteen minute extra periods — and if things are still tied after that, then the match (and Champions League Finalist) will be decided by a shootout. With the first tie-breaker being goals scored on the road, Barcelona advances to the Finals even with a 4-1 loss since their one goal scored on the road is more than Liverpool’s zero goals scored last week. Liverpool advances to the Finals with a victory by at least four goals in regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool needs to score at least three goals to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. The problem for manager Jurgen Klopp is that he will be without two of his top strikers. Roberto Firmino has been dealing with a groin injury — and while he was a substitute in last Wednesday’s first-leg, he did not play in the Reds English Premier League match over the weekend. He does not fit to play this afternoon. Mohamed Salah also will be out this afternoon after receiving a knock in their Saturday match against Newcastle United which has him in the concussion protocol. Liverpool will push forward — they still have a prolific goal scorer in Sadio Mane while also possessing a group of talented defensemen who are comfortable playing up on the pitch to score goals. Look for Klopp to deploy the high-press system he relied on last season. This approach creates scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but it also leaves his defense vulnerable when these tactics fail. Klopp dialed back this approach this season to make the Reds more defensive in their tactics — but this situation calls for uber-aggressiveness. Barcelona is a pragmatic side this season — but they will not be resting on their laurels in this contest. Manager Ernesto Valverde has indicated he wants his team playing aggressively as well — if and when they score, it forces Liverpool to have to score five goals to win this match given the tie-breaker situation. Furthermore, with the Catalans featuring Lionel Messi on the pitch, he is capable of scoring from anywhere at any time.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to expect the Reds to generate a clean sheet against Messi and this Barcelona side. I do think an aggressive Liverpool scores at least twice in this rematch (even without Salah and Firmino). 25* Champions League Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-19 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (28-7-1) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 5-0 victory at home over Huddersfield in their last EPL match last Friday. Newcastle United (11-9-6) comes off a 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion in their last match last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are precarious times for Liverpool as they followed up their match with Huddersfield with the first leg of their Champions League Semifinals showdown with Barcelona which ended in a 3-0 loss. The Reds host the second leg of that contest midweek — so manager Jurgen Klopp will be keeping one eye with that impending rematch with his need to conserve the energy of his key players. Klopp does not need a blowout victory. However, Liverpool absolutely must generate the three points with a victory in this match to keep up their championship aspirations in the EPL as they are one point behind Manchester City. Things could get nervy for this team to register a goal. Before facing the bottom-feeder team in the league in Huddersfield who are already mathematically eliminated from not being relegated, the Reds had scored more than two goals just twice in their last five EPL matches. Liverpool’s offensive proficiency has been particularly slowed down when they are playing on the road away from Anfield. In their last nine EPL matches on the road, the Reds have scored more than two goals only once. Liverpool has still enjoyed great success because they have developed into an outstanding defensive team under Klopp. The acquisition of defenseman Virgil Van Dijk in last year’s winter transfer window has certainly played a huge role in their defensive transformation as he perhaps been the Most Valuable Player in the EPL. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest number in the league. Liverpool has allowed only ten goals in their 18 EPL matches on the road. And in their thirteen road games against the non-Big Six EPL sides, the Reds have surrendered a mere 5 goals. But also keep in mind that Liverpool has scored only 26 goals in those thirteen matches for flat 2.0 Goals-Per-Game average. Newcastle is a difficult opponent who plays a compact system that can be difficult to penetrate. The Magpies are happy to grind out low-scoring matches where they find scoring opportunities in cautious counter-attacking moments. Newcastle is in good form right now — they are 2-1-0 in their last three matches where they have allowed only two goals. In their last six matches on their home field at St. James Park, the Magpies have allowed only five goals — and they have conceded just 22 goals in their eighteen home matches this season. Newcastle has scored 22 goals in those eighteen home matches as well. Digging deeper, the Magpies have scored only nine goals in their eleven matches against one of the Big Six teams in the EPL — and they have conceded only nine goals in their five home matches against one of those Top Six EPL sides this season.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle usually plays Liverpool tough — they have only lost once in their last seven home matches against the Reds. Liverpool will be cautious in this contest and will be very content with a 1-0 victory. While the Magpies are not likely to score a goal, the Reds are not likely to find the back of the net more than twice. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-19 |
Huddersfield Town v. Liverpool UNDER 4 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (3-5-27) limps into this match coming off a 2-1 loss to Watford last Saturday. Liverpool (27-7-1) comes off a 2-1 win at Cardiff City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Huddersfield is not likely to score a goal in this match. The Terriers have scored the fewest goals in the league at 20 — and that number drops to just 11 goals in their 17 matches on the road. Even worse, Huddersfield has scored only three times in their 10 matches against one of the Big Six franchises this season. The Terriers are cemented to be relegated to the Champions League — so this match is all about pride. Don’t be surprised if they park the proverbial bus in their back end to limit the Reds damage. On the plus side, the 29 goals they have surrendered against Big Six competition in ten matches results in less than 3.0 Goals Allowed per match. Yet this remains a side that has not scored a goal in seven of their last English Premier League matches on the road. And while they have allowed 69 goals this season with 39 of these goals being on the road — the Expected Goals metric indicates that they should have allowed just 60.78 goals overall this season along with only 32.00 goals allowed when playing on the road. Liverpool needs every point possible in their fight for first place with Manchester City. But the Reds will be without their top forward in Roberto Firminho who meager Jurgen Klopp has announced will not play today because of a muscle injury. While Liverpool is still loaded with goal scorers led by midfielders Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, the absence of Firminho hurts their cohesion up top. As it is, the Reds have not scored more than three goals in five straight EPL matches. But Liverpool has held their last two EPL opponents scoreless. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest mark in the league. In twelve home matches against the non-Big Six sides this season, Liverpool has scored a solid but not overwhelming 36 goals — while allowing just 7 goals in those matches.
FINAL TAKE: This match looks destined to be 3-0. The Reds should average their three goals in these situations — but it will be very difficult for Huddersfield to find the back of the net once. With the Total set at 4.0, we have a reasonable cushion. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-19 |
Arsenal v. Watford UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (19-6-7) enters this English Premier League matching looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at Everton last Saturday. Watford (13-7-12) returns to EPL action where their last match was back on April 2nd when they defeated Fulham by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has scored only five goals in their last four matches — but they have surrendered only two goals over that span. None of those last four matches saw more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have slowed down on offense in large measure to do the slump of their striker, Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. First-year manager Unai Emery is no longer playing Aubemeyang consistently despite him being the team’s leading scorer with 17 goals. When Emery pairs Aubemeyang with Alexandre Lacazette at forward, Arsenal becomes one of the most dynamic scoring sides in the EPL. But Emery does not like how that pairing impacts how his team plays defensively — and it has been Aubemeyang who has been the odd man out. The Gunners have scored 65 goals this season — but the deeper metrics suggests they have been fortunate to generate that much scoring as their Expected Goals drops to 54.21 this year. Arsenal has scored only 26 goals on the road this year in their 15 matches for a meager 1.73 Goals-Per-Game average — but their Expected Goals on the road drops to just 20. On the positive side of the ledger, the Gunners have allowed 28 goals on the road but the Expected Goals allowed drops to 25.02. Arsenal simply does not create a ton of scoring chances. The Gunners rank 12th in the EPL by scoring 11.9 shots per game — and that number drops to 10.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is just 13th in the league. Watford plays a grinding and physical style of play that tends to give Arsenal some trouble. The Hornets have only allowed two goals in their last five matches at home. Overall, Watford has surrendered just 20 goals in their 15 home matches. But the Hornets have scored only 23 times at home this year — and their Expected Goals at home drops to just 19.42. Watford plays conservatively on the pitch — they are just 16th in the EPL by averaging only 11.2 shots per game. The Hornets are also 7th in the league by only allowing 12.7 shots per game. Watford has scored only eight times in their ten matches against the Big Six teams in the EPL. At home, the Hornets have scored only five goals in their five home matches against the Big Six.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are playing lower scoring games as of late — particularly when Watford is playing at home where just 10 combined goals have been scored in their last five home matches. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-19 |
Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (24-7-1) enters this match coming off a 2-1 win at home over Tottenham back last Sunday. Southampton (8-9-14) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win at Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool leads the English Premier League by conceding only 19 goals this season for a low 0.59 Goals-Per-Game allowed. They are even stingier when they are playing on the road as the Reds have conceded only 9 goals away from home this year for a 0.56 Goals-Per-Game allowed. Manager Jurgen Klopp has his team play with a bit more emphasis on defensive tactics when playing in hostile territory. Liverpool leads the EPL by allowing only 6.5 shots per game when playing on the road. Furthermore, in their eleven matches on the road against non-Big Six clubs, the Reds have given up only four goals for a measly 0.36 Goals-Per-Game allowed. So, there is a good opportunity for Liverpool to earn a clean sheet on the road in this match. But with the Reds in a dog fight with Manchester City for first place in the EPL this season, they have been playing pretty tight on the road as of late. Liverpool has scored only seven goals in their last seven matches on the road while conceding just four goals — and none of these seven matches saw more than three combined goals scored. Mo Salah looks tired on the pitch right now as he has not scored a goal in his last eight matches for the Reds. Additionally, Liverpool is just not as active when playing on the road. While they average 20.7 shots per game when playing at home, this number drops to just 14.9 shots per game when playing on the road. Furthermore, the Reds average 8.2 shots on target per game at home but this mark drops to 5.7 shots on target per game when playing on the road. Southampton can play the role of spoiler in this match since their win at Brighton placed them 5 points above relegation. The Saints return home where they have only conceded four goals in their last four matches — but they have scored only six goals over that span. Southampton struggles to score goals — their 35 goals this season is 6th fewest in the EPL. The Saints average just 1.27 Goals-Per-Game at home this year.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton has been difficult to score on when playing at home as of late. With Liverpool’s offense hampered with Salah’s slump, expect a lower scoring game. 20* EPL Liverpool-Southampton NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-19 |
West Ham United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). THE SITUATION: West Ham (10-6-11) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 3-1 win over Fulham last Friday. Manchester City (21-2-4) returns to EPL action after they blasted Chelsea by a 6-0 score back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is playing with plenty of momentum right now as they nip at the heels of Liverpool at the top of the EPL table. The Citizens have scored 17 goals over their last five EPL matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last two matches which were against two Power-Six clubs in Chelsea and Arsenal. Man City has scored at least three goals in four of their last five games as well as five of their last seven matches. Furthermore, they have seen at least four combined goals scored in nine of their last ten matches when playing at home. They lead in the EPL in goals scored and goals scored at home in Etihad Stadium. The Citizens also lead the league in average shots on goal with 17.1 per games — and they also lead the EPL with 20.4 shots per game when playing at home. With Gabriel Jesus dealing with an injury, it looks to be a certainty that manager Pep Guardiola will be playing his best attacker, Sergio Aguero, who will be looking to secure his third straight hat trick when playing on his home pitch. It should be another big scoring day for Man City who is averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game in their home ten home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. West Ham does surrender plenty of shot attempts: they allow 13.3 shots per game which is the seventh most in the league — and that number rises to 16.2 shots allowed per game which is sixth worst in the EPL. The Hammers have played only two matches on the road against Power-Six sides where they allowed seven combined goals. The deeper metrics suggest that West Ham has been fairly fortunate in the goals they have allowed. The Hammers have surrendered 40 goals this season but the Expected Goals allowed metric raises that number to 43.05. Furthermore, West Ham has allowed 20 goals this season when playing on the road — but the Expected Goals allowed when playing on the road rises to 23.50. This will be manager Manuel Pellegrini’s first trip back to the Etihad after he was sacked as the Man City manager in 2016. Pellegrini embraces an aggressive style — he wants his team to attack rather than park the bus in the back. Once Man City takes the lead, the goals should keep coming with the Hammers having a decent chance of securing one of the goals to reach our target of four combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Man City is clicking on all cylinders right now. If they do not score the four goals themselves in this contest, there is a good chance that West Ham will add goal themselves to the total. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Crystal Palace v. Leicester UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (7-6-13) returns to the pitch after a 1-1 draw with West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on February 9th. Leicester City (9-5-12) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Tottenham back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Crystal Palace is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions — and they are getting it done with strong defensive play. The Eagles have scored only four goals in their last three EPL contests — but they have surrendered just two goals in those contests. Crystal Palace goes on the road where they are 4-2-7 this season while scoring 18 goals and surrendering 22 goals. But the deeper metrics indicate they should be playing lower scoring games when playing in hostile territory. Their Expected Goals scored number drops significantly to just 13.72 goals in those thirteen contests — and their Expected Goals allowed also drops to 18.66. Looking closer, a disproportionate number of the goals being scored when the Eagles are on the road are in matches versus the Power Six clubs. In their nine matches on the road against non-Power Six sides, Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals while allowing only 13 goals which is right on track for an Under in this contest. Leicester City is winless in their last five EPL matches. They are struggling to find the back of the net as they have scored only two goals over their last three matches. Manager Claude Puel chose not to start his best attacker, Jamie Vardy, in that last match against the Spurs. Vardy did come on as a substitute and scored the Foxes loan goal — but it is not clear if he is in the doghouse or if Puel is simply dissatisfied with his effort. Leicester City returns home where they are 4-2-6 this season. They have only scored 13 goals in their last twelve home matches which the fourth lowest in the EPL. But the Foxes have allowed only 13 goals at home as well so they are used to playing tight, low-scoring matches on their pitch. In their last three home contests, Leicester City has scored only one goal while surrendering four. Puel has his team playing a defensive-oriented strategy. In their seventeen matches against non-Power Six sides, the Foxes have allowed only 19 goals. Goals are even harder to come by when Leicester City is hosting a non-Power Six team. In those fourteen matches, the Foxes have scored 13 goals and allowed 13 goals to produce an average that is below 2.0 combined goals per game. Furthermore, in their last five home matches against non-Power Six sides, Leicester City has scored 5 times while allowing only 4 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams do a good job of limiting their opponents shot opportunities. Crystal Palace is 7th in the EPL by allowing 12.5 shots per game. Leicester City is 5th in the league by allowing only 11.6 shots per game — and that number drops to just 10 shots per game when they are playing at home at King Power Stadium which is the 4th best mark in the English Premier League. 25* EPL Saturday NBC-TV O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Burnley v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
Our 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Burnley (6-6-13) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw to Southampton last Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (7-6-12) comes off a 0-0 draw at home to Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Burnley is playing better soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions. The Clarets find themselves 2 points above the relegation zone — so scrapping out at least a point this afternoon would be huge for them. Burnley’s success as of late has come from better goal production — they have found the back of the net 10 times in their last six matches. Stopping the opposition has been the biggest problem for this team as they have surrendered 46 goals in English Premier League play which is the second most of all twenty teams. The Clarets allow their opponents to attempt 18 shots per game — and that number rises to 20.2 shots allowed per game when playing on the road. Both those numbers are the worst in the EPL. Burnley has scored 11 times on the road while conceding 24 goals — and the analytics indicate that these should be higher scoring games with their Expected Goals scored on the road being at 12.14 and the Expected Goals they should have allowed being at 26.17. Don’t be surprised if Chris Wood scores a goal in this match as he registered a goal five times in his last eight matches with Brighton. The Seagulls have lost three of their last five matches in EPL play but they do enter this match with confidence after they defeated West Brom on Wednesday in FA Cup action by a 3-1 score. Manager Chris Hughton rested most of his usual starters in that match so his group should be rested and ready for this showdown. Brighton has only conceded 12 goals when playing at home this season — but the metrics suggest that has been a rather fortunate occurrence since their Expected Goals allowed rests over 25% higher at 16.23. The Seagulls allow 15.4 shots per game which is the second most in the EPL. Brighton is a tough team to beat when playing at home against one of the non-Power Six teams in the league. The Seagulls are 4-3-0 in those seven matches while scoring 9 times for a 2.25 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These are the bottom two teams in the league in shots attempted by their opponents. With this being a winnable match for both teams, I expect both sides to be very aggressive in their search for 3 points with a victory. I think both teams score in this contest — with the issue being whether we can see a third goal to secure our winning ticket (versus a push at 2.0). 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Chelsea v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (14-5-4) looks to rebound from a 2-0 shutout loss on the road at Arsenal in their last English Premier League match back on January 19th. Bournemouth (9-3-11) returns to EPL play after the break going off a 2-0 win over West Ham on January 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea needed help with their attack so they made a big splash in the January transfer window by adding Gonzalo Higuain to be their striker. Frankly, I am not bullish on the veteran forward who seemed past his prime this summer as part of the vast Argentina disappointment at the World Cup. Higuain thrived when playing for manager Maurizio Sarri at Napoli — but that was back for the 2015-16 season. However, the best benefit of getting Higuain on the pitch is it frees up for their best player, Eden Hazard, to go back to his preferred space out wide rather than playing the traditional striker role. Higuain has already made his debut with the Blues last week in a 3-0 victory over Sheffield in FA Cup action which is encouraging regarding this team finding their offensive attack again. Chelsea has seen 29 combined goals scored in their eleven EPL matches on the road this season. They have scored 40 goals this season but 31 of these have come against the non-power six teams in the league. In those seventeen matches against the bottom-fourteen sides in the EPL, the Blues have seen 40 combined goals scored. In their last six road matches in the EPL against non-power six teams, Chelsea has seen at least three combined goals scored in five of those contests. The Blues will put plenty of pressure on the Cherries in this match. They are second in the league by averaging 15.7 shots per game — and they lead the EPL by averaging 15 shots per game when playing on the road in executing Sarri’s aggressive system. Bournemouth may not have their top striker in Callum Wilson who is dealing with hamstring and knee injuries after limping off the pitch in their win over West Ham — he was downgraded to doubtful yesterday for this match. But the Cherries have a capable second striker in Joshua King so his loss does not derail their offensive attack. Bournemouth has scored 21 times in their twelve matches at home this season — so they should find the back of the net at least once in this contest. However, the defense is the problem for this team that has allowed the fourth most goals in the EPL this year. The Cherries allow the third most shots (12.85) when playing at home this season — so this match with Chelsea will likely see them surrender plenty of shot attempts. Bournemouth typically gets exposed when playing one of the traditional top-six teams in the league (Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea). They have allowed 22 goals in their seven matches against the power-six teams which translate into over 3.0 goals-per-game surrendered. The Cherries have seen 10 combined goals scored in their three matches at home against power-six teams with the visitor scoring 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: With Chelsea being one of the most active teams in the league and Bournemouth vulnerable to these teams, expect a higher-scoring contest this afternoon. 25* EPL Television Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Leicester v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (6-3-5) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over Watford on Saturday. Fulham (2-2-10) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Chelsea on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has tightened things up on defense as of late. Over their last five English Premier League matches, they have allowed only two goals. This focus on defense has come at the expense of limiting their scoring chances. The Foxes have scored only five goals in those last five matches. Against Watford, they relied on their counter-attack as they controlled possession for just 37.7% of that match. They were out-shot by an 8 to 7 mark. Leicester City will be without their top goal-scorer in Jamie Vardy who is out with a groin injury. That is not a good sign for their goal-scoring prospects when considering that they average only 1.43 Goals-Per-Game on the road. But the Foxes do play tight defense away from home as they are giving up just 1.57 Goals-Per-Game on the road. The Expected Goals advanced metric suggests that Leicester City should be seeing fewer goals scored in their matches. They have accumulated 20 goals this season with the xG being at 18.48. They have allowed 17 goals but the xGA is slightly lower at 16.26. Fulham has played two matches since former Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri took over of Slavisa Jovanovic. Ranieri’s primary responsibility right now is to tighten up a defense that has allowed the most goals in the EPL. Allowing only four goals in his first two matches (including a potent Chelsea side) is a good start for this team. The Cottagers have been a bit unlucky with bad luck as their xGA is 29.03 which is far below the 35 goals they have allowed. Fulham has scored 14 times this season — but the xG is a tad lower at 13.35. The Cottagers have managed only nine goals in their six matches at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Ranieri certainly is familiar with many of the current Foxes having led them to the EPL title in 2015-16. Fulham is playing a bit more controlled under his leadership. Expect a lower scoring contest. 25* EPL Midweek Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 3 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (6-0-2) takes the pitch again in English Premier League play after the international break that they went in on with a 5-1 victory over Fulham back on October 7th. Leicester City (4-0-4) went into the two-week international break on a 2-1 loss at home to Everton on October 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is one of the hottest teams in the EPL. They are looking for their tenth straight victory in all competitions as well as their seventh straight win in EPL play. The Gunners are clicking under first-year coach Unai Emery’s high-pressing, counter-attack system that creates scoring opportunities. Arsenal has scored 19 goals this season for a crisp 2.38 Goals-Per-Game scoring average. Part of the improved success for this team has certainly been because of a favorable turn of the schedule. The Gunners opened their EPL season with a difficult road against Manchester City and then Chelsea. Their six EPL matches since have been against teams outside the traditional top-six franchises (like Leicester City). In those matches, Arsenal has scored 17 goals while finding the back of the net at least twice in all those contests. The other factor that has jumpstarted this group is Emery’s decision to play Alexandre Lacazette at forward at the same time with striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. These two have developed a nice chemistry between them to form a dangerous combination of scoring threats. They each scored twice in that match against Fulham. But Emery’s high-pressing style risks making the back-line vulnerable to attack — and quality defensemen is a weakness of this team. Leicester City scores goals — they have 14 goals this season while scoring in all eight of their matches. Jamie Vardy remains one of the best strikers in all of the EPL after his star-making season in 2015-15 when he led the Foxes to the surprising EPL title. Leicester City also has found a spark plug to jumpstart their offense with midfielder James Maddison who they signed in the summer transfer period from Norwich City. Vardy has three goals with one assist this season despite a slow start to the season after helping England’s run to the Semifinals at the World Cup — and then he missed another two matches after receiving a Red Card suspension. Maddison has three goals with two assists from his midfield position. But the Foxes’ defense too often is leaky as they have allowed 12 goals this season — including 9 goals in their last five matches for a concurring 1.80 Goals-Allowed mark. Their defense will be shorthanded for this match with their captain Wes Morgan unavailable after he was issued a Red Card in that match with the Toffees two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has played two top-six opponents this season with both ending in 2-1 losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. It seems that the Gunners scoring twice and the Foxes scoring once is the baseline for this match — so let’s take our (good) chances that a fourth goal will be scored in this one this afternoon. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Burnley v. Cardiff City UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). THE SITUATION: Burnley (1-1-4) enters this match coming off a 4-0 win over Bournemouth last Saturday in EPL action. Cardiff (0-2-4) looks to rebound from a 5-0 loss to Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley’s four goals last week was quite a surprise when considering they had scored only three goals in their first five matches in the English Premier League. The Clarets’ seized a two-goal lead in the first-half and then saw their forward Ashley Barnes score twice in the final ten minutes of that match against an aggressive and desperate Bournemouth side who have been playing higher scoring matches all season. Burnley finished 7th in the EPL last season due mostly to strong defensive play under manager Sean Dyche. The Cherries were 6th in the EPL by allowing only 39 goals. They have surrendered ten goals so far this season but their early results need to be taken with a grain of salt when considering that they also played the first few weeks of the season while also focused on Europa League matches. That victory over Bournemouth was their first EPL match since getting eliminated from that tournament. They did give up 19 shots to the Cherries but most of those shots were not high-percentage — so the numbers look worse than how it played out. Burnley also got outstanding goalkeeping from Joe Hart in that contest. Moving forward, the Clarets should get back to playing outstanding defense in EPL action. But this is also a side that has scored only two goals in their three matches on the road. Last year, Burnley scored just 36 goals which was 15th in the EPL. Cardiff has surrendered at least three goals in each of their last three matches in the EPL — but those were each against top-six opponents in Arsenal, Chelsea and the reigning champions in Man City last week. They have seen only two combined goals scored in their three matches against non-top-six clubs this season with two of those matches resulting in clean sheets for their defense and keeper Neil Etheridge. The Bluebirds have only scored two goals in their three home matches while netting just three goals overall in their six EPL contests. This is a side that is willing to play ugly to grind out points — they do not want to get into a fast, aggressive contest. Manager Neil Warnock does get an important piece on defense back in Sol Bamba who has been dealing with a separated shoulder. His return to the pitch should help the play of captain Sean Morrison who forms a great back defensive pairing with Bamba when Cardiff is playing at their best.
FINAL TAKE: Cardiff will be desperate to earn their first victory of the season in a campaign where they are already in significant danger of being one of three relegated sides. They cannot expect to score more than one goal in this match — and that will dictate their tactics to be cautious and defensive. Burnley is happy to engage in that style — their four goals last week were an aberration. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (6-0-0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League last week with their 3-0 victory over Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (5-1-0) experienced their first blemish to what had been an unbeaten EPL campaign when they traveled to West Ham and left with a 0-0 draw.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This two teams played on Wednesday in the third round of the Carabao Cup which Liverpool hosted at Anfield but Chelsea came away with a 2-1 victory. Not too much should be read into that match with Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp resting his starting four defenders along with stars Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino. Klopp should have a tactical edge in this immediate rematch after getting a look as to how Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri schemed against Liverpool’s high press approach. The Reds’ have been an offensive juggernaut this season as they have scored fourteen goals in their six matches. Salah has scored only three goals so far this season after finding the back of the net 32 times in his breakout campaign last year. But the deeper metrics for Salah are quite encouraging so the Egyptian superstar may be on the verge of a breakout game. Salah will certainly be motivated to be playing against his former team. Liverpool has also scored eight of their goals on the road — so playing this match at Stamford Bridge should not slow down the Reds’ powerful offensive attack. The Liverpool defense has played well this season — but they have only played one top-six opponent this year in Tottenham which resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds playing on the road. Liverpool’s defense was at times too leaky last season — and they perhaps need an upgrade with their central defenders that Chelsea will be able to exploit. The Blues are led by Eden Hazard who is perhaps playing the best soccer in the EPL right now. He scored the winning goal on Wednesday while displaying elite level talent that shined against the Reds’ defenders. Chelsea has scored 14 times this season — and they had found the back of the net at least twice in their first five matches before failing to score last week at West Ham. But now the Blues return back home where they have scored nine times while also allowing three goals in their three matches for average combined goals mark of 4.0. Sarri’s approach with Napoli where he previously served as manager was to prioritize attacking on offense. Sarri has pushed Chelsea’s star midfielder N’Golo Kante higher up the pitch to embrace more of an offensive role as compared to the holding position he has taken over the last few seasons. But the risk of these tactics is that they are vulnerable to pressing sides who can get scoring opportunities from counter-attacks — and this is precisely Clop’s style with Liverpool.
FINAL TAKE: Both sides should score at least once in this match — at least a 2-1 result is likely. This game has the makings of an exciting, high-scoring contest. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Everton v. Arsenal OVER 3.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). THE SITUATION: Everton (1-3-1) enters this match looking to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss to West Ham last Sunday. Arsenal (3-0-2) looks to build off a 2-1 win at Newcastle last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has gotten their offense cranked up as they have scored ten goals over their last four matches. First-year manager Unai Emery has found a good combination by inserting Alexandre LaCazette into the starting lineup at forward to form a potent combination with Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. This pairing has come at the expense of another offensive midfielder in Henrikh Mkhitaryan who has lost playing time since LaCazette entered the starting XI. Emery has a well-defined system — as compared to their previous manager Arsene Wenger — that emphasizes high pressing that looks to trigger continuous pressure against their opposition. But the drawback to this approach is that this can leave their back line vulnerable to counter-attacks — and the Gunners have allowed nine goals already this season. The biggest weakness for this team is an aging defense that lacks a quality central defender — and they are banged up right now with Sean Kolasinac and Laurent Koscielny out with injuries. Emery’s hope is that he can coach up his back four while outscoring their opponents before help can be found in the next transfer window. He did inherit a squad that was tied for third in goals scored in last year’s English Premier League season. Arsenal comes off a high-scoring match midweek as well as they outscored Vorslka in Europa League play on Thursday by a 4-2 score. Everton is also banged up with their defensive back line with Yerry Mina, Michael Keane and Seamus Coleman all dealing with injuries. The Toffees defense was exposed last week after surrendering three goals to a West Ham side that entered that match with only two goals in their first four games. But Everton will get a shot in the arm with the return to the pitch of their dynamic midfielder in Richarlison who missed their last three matches from a red card suspension. The transfer from Watford made an immediate impact with his new team by scoring three times in his first two matches before getting issued that red card. His presence on the pitch makes fellow midfielder Theo Walcott more dangerous as well as forward Cenk Tosun up top. Both of Everton’s first two matches on the road resulted in 2-2 draws — so this is a group that is getting used to playing high-scoring matches. In their three matches with Richarlison starting on the pitch, the Toffees scored two goals in each contest.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring affair. Neither of these teams has recorded a clean sheet this season. And in their two English Premier League matches last year, the games saw six and seven combined goals scored both times with Arsenal finding the back of the net five times in both contests. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Southampton OVER 2 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-1-2) returns to English Premier League action today following the international break which they entered with a 2-2 draw with Fulham on September 1st. Southampton has won two straight matches in all events after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road on the first Saturday of the month by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Glenn Murray scored twice in that win over Fulham — he has found the back of the net now three times in his last four EPL matches. Murray also loves to face his southern rivals in Southampton against which he has scored four games in his last five EPL matches against them. The 34-year old will see the addition up top of Florin Andone who will be playing his first match with the team since being acquired in the summer transfer window. Murray and company will need to play aggressively in this game to keep the Gulls competitive given their poor play on the defensive end of the pitch. Brighton has allowed 60 shots in EPL play while also allowing the 4th most shots in the league from inside the box. Furthermore, the Seagulls have allowed 14 goals in their last six EPL matches going back to last season which results in a 2.3 Goals-Allowed-Average. Brighton has zero clean sheets this season so it is highly likely that Southampton will score at least once in this match. Danny Ings has found his form with the team as he scored in their match at Crystal Palace — he has two goals in his last three matches in EPL play. He will be joined up top with Charlie Austin whose seven goals in his career against Brighton represents his best scoring production against all the teams from the English Premier League. The Saints have scored only four goals this year but they are due to get a visit from the Regression Gods as they have attempted a healthy 64 shots while creating plenty of scoring chances. In their last six matches in all events, Southampton has scored 11 goals for an improving 1.72 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 1-1 draws in their two EPL matches last year. That should be the minimum expectation here — but I am expecting for at least Southampton to score a second time given their activity they are generating in front of the net against this porous Brighton defense. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Huddersfield Town v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
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At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (0-1-2) earned their first point of the season last Saturday with their 0-0 draw at home against Cardiff. Everton (1-2-0) also earned a point last week with their 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton has scored two goals in each of their first three matches this season which may tempt some bettors to take the Over in this match with them being -1.0 goal favorites. But the metrics indicate that the Toffees have been very fortunate in front of the net with 20% of their shots reaching the back of the net — that is the highest mark in the English Premier League and likely due for regression. Everton will be without their top offensive player in this match in midfielder Richarlison who has scored three of the teams six goals this year. Richarlison earned a red card in that match last week against Cardiff who garnered him a three-game suspension. The Toffees still have Theo Walcott as a scoring option in the middle of the field — but while he has scored twice so far this season he has managed only four shots on net. I think he will struggle without Richarlison on the pitch — Everton blew their 2-0 lead against the Cherries when playing with ten players after his red card. The Toffees are also dealing with injuries on defense with three central defenders likely out for this match. That situation will likely compel manager Marco Silva to have his team play cautiously with the hopes of wearing down an inferior opponent. Everton scored only ten goals at home in Goodison Park in their last ten matches — but they gave up only nine goals in those matches for a low 1.9 combined goals average. Huddersfield is not a threat to score goals in this match. After finishing tied for the bottom in the EPL last year with just 28 goals, the Terriers have scored only once in their three EPL matches this year. They were also held scoreless in their Carabou Cup match on Tuesday this week which resulted in a 2-0 loss at Stoke City. In their scoreless draw with Cardiff last week, Huddersfield managed only five shots with just one on target. Their sixteen shots overall this year is last in the EPL. Their offensive cause is not helped with midfielder Jonathan Hogg suspended after earning a red card last week. Last year, the Terriers failed to score in twenty-one of their thirty-eight matches — and they only managed to score in six of their matches on the road. In their last eight matches on the road in the EPL last season, they scored only four goals — but they allowed only ten goals for a low 1.75 combined Goals-Per-Game average. Manager David Wagner is crafty and will likely have his team play very deep with the hopes of stealing a point in a scoreless draw. The team lacks a quality striker which often compels Wagner to use only forward on the pitch in exchange for more defenders. Huddersfield did have the eighth most clean sheets last year so a 0-0 draw is not out of the realm of the possibilities in his mind.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won both matches between these two clubs last year by 2-0 scores. With the Terriers attack looking to be even less potent this season and the Toffees significantly undermanned, expect another low-scoring contest. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-27-18 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
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105 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (2-0-0) have won their opening two games of the new season with their 3-1 win over Fulham last Saturday. Manchester United (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 upset loss last Sunday at Brighton and Hove Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The pressure is mounting on Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho whose preferred defensive tactics are not matching with the talent he has on this Red Devils roster. Man United managed only nine shots despite controlling the possession for 66.6% of this match — and yet they allowed two goals to a Brighton team that was 17th in the entire EPL in goals scored last year. David de Gea was perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world last year but he has been off his game since the World Cup where he was part of Spain’s disappointment. The Red Devils have allowed four goals this season — so while it is tempting to think that Mourinho will want to tighten things up even more after that embarrassing loss, his team’s defensive form suggests that is not a winning strategy. Mourinho saw implosions in his third year as the manager for both Chelsea and Real Madrid so his seat is red hot right now. The pressure is on Man United offensive players to register goals in this important contest with a good Spurs side. The Red Devils are 5th in goals scored last year with 68 — and 41 of those goals were scored at home at Old Trafford for a 2.16 Goals-Per-Game average. In their last five home matches against one of the Top Six teams in the EPL, Man United has scored ten goals. But the problem for Mourinho is that his team has also surrendered seven goals in those last five home contests hosting a Top Six side. The Red Devils produced only one clean sheet at home all of last season against a Top Six team — so it is likely that the Spurs will score in this contest. Tottenham has scored five times in their first two matches with Harry Kane breaking his EPL August cold-streak by finally scoring in the opening month of the season last week in the 77th minute against Fulham. Kane enjoyed a great run with England in the World Cup and he looks to remain in top form now. The Spurs have scored 1.8 Goals in their last ten EPL games on the road while allowing 1.1 Goals-Per-Game against their home hosts. More importantly, they have scored six goals in their last three road matches against a Top Six team in EPL action while allowing those Top Six opponents to score seven times. Tottenham has also allowed nine goals in their last four road contests in the EPL against a Top Six opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The urgency to win this match will likely produce a 2-1 result (at least). The Spurs should score at least once on the road — and Manchester United tends to break out of Mourinho’s organizational straight-jacket when the goings get rough. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
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At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2518) and Liverpool (2519). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-0-1) is riding high after they pulled an upset over Manchester United last Saturday by a 3-2 score. Liverpool (2-0-0) remained unbeaten this year with their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton may have scored three times last week against Man United but that was at home in their Amex Stadium. The Seagulls were 17th in the EPL last year by scoring only 34 times. In their last fourteen English Premier League matches on the road, they have been held scoreless in ten of those contests. Furthermore, in their last twelve matches against one of the big six teams in the EPL, Brighton has scored only three goals while losing all twelve contests. The Gulls so play solid defense as they were 9th in the EPL by allowing 54 goals. They will likely park the proverbial bus in back with the hopes of frustrating scoring opportunities for Liverpool. The Reds can struggle against sides that commit to deploying a deep defense. Liverpool has scored six times this season with a dynamic offense led by their Egyptian superstar Mohamed Salah. But what gets overlooked with the scoring prowess of this team is their improved play on defense as they have not yet surrendered a goal this year. The Reds have registered six straight clean sheets at home at Anfield which goes all the way back to February. The addition of Virgil Van Dijk in the January transfer window has really paid dividends to stabilize their back end.
FINAL TAKE: The Pool Boys should win this contest easily but I do not see them running up the score while likely holding Brighton scoreless. 10* EPL Brighton-Liverpool NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2518) and Liverpool (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-18 |
Leicester v. Southampton OVER 2 |
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2-1 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
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At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2512) and Southampton (2513). Leicester City (1-0-1) won their first match of the season last Saturday with their 2-0 win over the Wolves. Southampton (0-1-1) looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss in Everton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It might look tempting to take the Under when considering that Southampton has scored only one goal this season while conceding only two goals. But the Saints have had 27 scoring chances so far this season which is the third most in the English Premier League behind only Manchester City and Chelsea who have used their scoring opportunities to generate a combined 14 goals. Southampton’s aggressiveness should be rewarded soon with more balls in the net. The team got a big boost last week with the addition of Danny Ings to the pitch who played in his first match for the team since he acquired this summer on loan from Burnley. Inge scored their goal against Everton while being involved with a number of those scoring opportunities. The Saints were 6th in the EPL last season in shots and scoring opportunities but only saw that translate into 37 goals which was 14th most of the twenty league teams. They need better finishers like Inge. Southampton gets another booster in this match with Mohamed Elyounoussi fit and ready to take the pitch for his new team after being acquired in a transfer from Basel in the summer. The midfielder enjoyed a strong season in the Champions League last year so he should add some offensive punch. Leicester City has scored three times in their first two matches — but their first match was a challenging one at Old Trafford against Manchester United in which they lost by a 2-1 score. The team will be without their forward Jamie Vardy who was suspended for three games last week in that match against Wolverton. The Foxes still have scoring options without Vardy. He will be replaced on the pitch by their 21-year old Kelechp Iheanacho who has scored three times in four matches against Southampton in his young career. Leicester City has also added some offensive punch in their midfield with the signing of James Maddison who has looked impressive in his first two matches including scoring a goal last week. Look for the talented Demarai Gray to get his chance to play up top in this match as well. The Foxes won by a 4-1 score in their last trip to St. Mary’s last December. Leicester City offered solid Over bets last season as they were 7th in the EPL in scoring but 16th in goals allowed.
FINAL TAKE: I think both teams are likely to score a goal in this match — giving us a de-facto free roll with the Over as we take the chance that one of these teams will score a second time. 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2512) and Southampton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-18 |
Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
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At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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