02-26-19 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Leicester -0.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200034) minus the goal-line versus Brighton and Hove Albion (200033). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (9-5-13) hit rock bottom on Saturday with their 4-1 loss to Crystal Palace on Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (7-6-13) had Week 27 in the English Premier League off given their FA Cup commitments after losing 3-1 to Burnley back on February 9th in their last EPL match.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The loss to Crystal Palace was the final straw for Leicester City ownership as they then fired manager Claude Puel after the match. Mike Stowell and Adam Sadler will serve as joint interim caretakers before the franchise hires their next manager. I expect a spirited effort from this group who did not look to be on the same page with Puel throughout the year. Jamie Vardy was in Puel’s doghouse after recently being benched in their previous match against Tottenham — he was one of the last remaining holdouts from their championship team from 2015-16. The Foxes have responded very well after seeing their manager sacked since that magical run three seasons ago. When their skipper from that season, Claudio Ranier, was fired on February 23rd in 2017, Leicester City responded by winning their next five matches. When Craig Shakespeare was then sacked on October 17th of the following season, the Foxes then rattled off two straight wins. This remains a talented roster that should be fighting for Top-Eight glory. The deeper metrics for Leicester City screams that this team was underachieving all season. While they have 32 points for the year, their Expected Goals metrics predict that they should be looking at over 38 points for the season. The Foxes have surrendered 38 goals — but the Expected Goals allowed drops to only 33 goals. Expect this team to play more aggressively as they did in their championship year — one of the constant complaints of Puel not only at Leicester City but also in his previous run at Southampton is that his teams do not attack enough while embracing tactics that are too often too passive. The recent schedule did this team no favors either as they played at Tottenham, at home to a red hot Manchester United side (liberated after their manager change) and at Liverpool (where they earned an impressive draw) before collapsing against an underrated Crystal Palace side. Brighton and Hove Albion have lost four of their last five matches in English Premier League action while generating only 2 points since the start of the new year. Furthermore, the Seagulls have only produced 6 points in their last 33 EPL contests. The rap on this team has usually been that they play much better at home where they are 5-4-4 this season when playing at Amex Stadium. But they have lost four of their last five matches on the road in EPL action where they are not just 2-2-9 while being outscored by a 12 to 24 goal margin. Against non-Power Six sides on the road, the Seagulls are just 2-2-6 but they still have an ugly 11 to 19 goal differential.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton is just 1-2-3 in their last six trips to King Power Stadium to face the Foxes. Expect a spirited effort from Leicester City who have been underachieving all season relative to their talent. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200034) minus the goal-line versus Brighton and Hove Albion (200033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Liverpool v. Manchester United +0.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester United (200030) with the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200029). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (15-6-5) enters this showdown coming off a 3-0 win over Fulham back on February 9th in their last English Premier League match. Liverpool (20-5-1) comes off a 3-0 win over Bournemouth in their last EPL match back on February 9th.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: This has been a different Red Devils team since Jose Mourinho was sacked after a 3-1 loss at Liverpool back on December 16th. Interim caretaker Gunnar Solskjaer took over by liberating the players from Mourinho’s conservative principles — and the players have responded with outstanding play. Manchester United has since won eleven of their last thirteen matches in all competitions with their one loss being to Paris Saint-German by a 2-0 score. In EPL play, the Red Devils are 8-1-0 under Solskjaer with 23 goals scored and just 6 goals conceded. Solskjaer’s biggest adjustment was to give his star players the freedom to be creative and take chances on the pitch. This has meant everything for superstars like Paul Pogba who just last summer was leading France to a World Cup championship. Solskjaer also gave forward Marcus Rashford the starting forward job and he has responded by establishing a nice bond with the midfielder Pogba. Solskjaer is now hoping to be named the permanent manager for Old Trafford — and a win today could do the trick. His biggest coaching challenge was making the adjustments after that tough loss to PSG — and his team responded with a dominant 2-0 win over Chelsea in FA Cup action. This is a huge match for the Red Devils who are loaded with talent. They did suffer a blow this morning with the news that their star defensive midfielder, Nemanja Matic, is not fit to play in this match. But this remains a proud club that has won seven of their last nine opportunities to host Liverpool. After a fast start that put them in charge at top of the EPL table, the Reds have been quite nervy as of late with the pressure of winning a championship becoming a real possibility. Liverpool comes off a 0-0 draw with Bayern Munich in Champions League play on Tuesday in a match where they blew a ton of scoring chances. They are just 3-2-1 in their last six matches in EPL action and now find themselves tied with Manchester City at the top of the table — but with this game in hand. Yet a loss in this contest makes things dead even at the top with the reigning champions — so anxiety may be very high. Liverpool is only 3-3-1 in their seven matches in EPL action this season against the Power-Six teams. On the road, the Reds have only won once in their four matches against Power Six teams. They have a 1-2-1 record on the road against these Power Six teams while scoring five goals and conceding five goals.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has now defeated a top-four team in the English Premier League standings on their home field in their last seven matches — their last win against a team in the top four was at Chelsea back in September of 2016 (the Obama Administration). The Reds are now playing nervous soccer — and Manchester United is brimming with confidence. The Red Devils should relish the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. An outright upset is very possible with Man United at home. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200030) with the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200029). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Cardiff City v. Arsenal -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-139 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Arsenal (200134) minus the Goal-Line versus Cardiff City (200133). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (13-5-5) returns from the winter break looking to build off their 2-0 win at home over Chelsea back on January 19th. Cardiff City (5-4-14) looks to rebound from their 3-0 loss at Newcastle back on January 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners will be looking to redeem themselves back at home at the Emirates following their 3-1 loss to Manchester United last Friday in FA Cup action. The Gunners lost defenseman Laurent Koscielny with a jaw injury in that match to further deplete an injured back line. However, that will not likely be an issue for Arsenal in this match. The Gunners are flat track bullies when playing at home. They have won five straight EPL matches on their home pitch with a dominant 14-4 goal differential over that span which includes two victories over top-six sides in Chelsea and Tottenham. Overall, Arsenal is 9-2-1 at home this season with a +16 goal differential. The Gunners are 7-1-0 at home when hosting a team outside the traditional top-six powers with 19 goals scored and just five goals conceded. Six of these eight victories at home against the bottom-fourteen sides have been by at least two goals which makes laying the -1.5 goals for this match an intriguing proposition. Arsenal simply makes their living by overwhelming teams like this when playing at home. The Gunners are 32-1-0 in their last thirty-three matches at home when facing a team currently in the bottom-three relegation zone going back to April of 2007. Arsenal is also 20-3-0 in their last twenty-three matches at home going back to November 2010 against newly promoted teams in EPL action. Cardiff City is currently in 18th place with 19 points which has them 2 points behind Newcastle for safety in 17th place. The Bluebirds are 1-2-4 in their last seven EPL matches — but while this team has been feisty against teams on the lower end of the table, their lack of talent has been exposed by the elite teams in the league. Cardiff has lost all seven of their matches against the top-six teams while conceding 25 goals in those matches and scoring just 5 times. The Bluebirds have struggled on the road as well where they are 1-2-8 this season with just 6 goals and 21 conceded. Not surprisingly, it has been ugly for Cardiff City when playing on the road against top-six teams as they have lost all three of those matches with a -7 net goal differential. To make matters worse, this team has been distracted over the break with the tragic news that their high-priced transfer Emiliano Sala went missing in a plane crash and is presumed dead. Sometimes tragedy can rally a group together but I suspect this will be demoralizing for this group who never got the chance to play with Sala. The Bluebirds are also without their captain Sean Morrison who is recovering from appendicitis surgery.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal is tied for third in the EPL with 48 goals with 26 of these goals being at home at the Emirates. The Gunners take care of business against the bottom feeders — and when they score first this afternoon, the route should be on. 25* EPL Match of the Month with Arsenal (200134) minus the Goal-Line versus Cardiff City (200133). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-18 |
Watford v. Everton -0.75 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (2502) minus the Goal-Line versus Watford (2501). THE SITUATION: Everton (6-5-4) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw with Newcastle last Wednesday. Watford (6-2-7) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss at home to Manchester City on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees will have plenty of motivation to win this match. For starters, it offers the first opportunity for revenge — or, at least, some level of comeuppance — for their manager Marco Silva and their star player, Richarlison. For the latter, this is his first opportunity to face his former side before he signed a huge deal in the summer to move to Everton. For the former, Silva was the Hornets manager to start the season before he was sacked midseason — and the Toffees jumped at the chance to get him in the summer. Richarlison has seven goals this season for Everton as he has evolved into their top scoring threat — so he would love to add to that tally this afternoon. The Toffees will also be playing with revenge on their mind as their last English Premier League encounter with the Hornets was last February 24th where they lost by a 1-0 score at Watford. Getting this rematch at Goodson Park should help where Everton has won eleven of their last twelve opportunities to host the Hornets. The Toffees also need to get back to their winning ways with their disappointing 1-1 draw with Newcastle preceded by a 1-0 loss at Liverpool. Everton is playing well — they have only lost one of their last five matches which includes an impressive 0-0 draw at Chelsea. The Toffees are 5-2-1 at home this season with a decisive +8 goal differential. By the advanced metric of expected Points, Everton possesses the 4th best home-field advantage in the EPL. They are tied for 5th in the league in goals scored while ranking 5th in shots, shots on target and possession time when playing at home. Watford had terrible home/road splits last season. In 2018 in last year’s campaign, the Hornets were 0-1-8 while scoring just once and allowing 19 goals when playing on the road. This year has been a bit better for Watford as they are 2-2-3 on the road this season with a -1 net goal differential. But they are 13th in the league in shots on target when playing on the road which is not a good mark for a club that fancies themselves to be middle-of-the-pack. The Hornets are trending in the wrong direction having lost four of their last five EPL matches. Watford is not generating enough scoring opportunities — they have scored only twice while allowing nine goals over those last five EPL matches. While they did generate seven shots on target against Man City, they had only eight combined shots on target in their previous four matches. They now face an Everton team that is 3rd in the EPL in limiting shots on target when playing on their home pitch.
FINAL TAKE: On paper, these two teams are close to even with Everton’s 23 points being three more than Watford’s total entering Week 16 of the season. But Everton is playing with better form right now — and they will definitely be motivated to make a statement in this match. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Everton (2502) minus the Goal-Line versus Watford (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Burnley v. Leicester -1 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Leicester City (2505) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2504). Leicester City (5-1-5) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Cardiff last Saturday. Burnley (2-2-7) looks to rebound from a 4-2 loss at West Ham last week.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is the Foxes first return home since the tragic death of their owner Vicar Srivaddhanaprabha who died with four others in a helicopter crash immediately following their 1-1 draw with West Ham at home two weeks ago. This will be a very emotional day for the Leicester City team and the fans especially since he was a popular owner who played a critical role in their surprising English Premier League championship run in 2015-16. I expect this to be one of the best efforts for the Foxes all season. Leicester City has fallen back from the traditional top-six teams in the EPL but they remain one of the proverbial “best of the rest.” Against the remaining fourteen sides this season, the Foxes are 5-2-1 with a +5 goal differential. At home against the non-power six, Leicester City is 2-1-1 with a +3 goal differential with their lone loss being against a solid Everton team. The Foxes should feast on a Burnley team that has lost three straight matches while surrendering at least four goals in all four contests. The Clarets finished in 7th place last year — but that might have been the kiss of death for this year’s team since qualifying for the Europa League this season took a toll on manager Sean Dacha’s bunch. It is not uncommon for the extra demands of the Europa League in the fall to wear down teams that lack the depth to rotate players during the week. Roster depth is certainly one of the concerns for the Clarets. Another concern is goal scoring as this team has found the back of the net only 12 times this season. On the road, Burnley is just 1-1-4 where they have scored only six times and hold a rough -9 net goal differential. The Clarets rank 17th in the EPL in shots attempted when playing on the road — and they fall to second-to-last of all EPL teams with only 2.5 shots per game on target. But the biggest issue for this team has been their defense which has collapsed this season after they ranked 6th last year in fewest goals allowed. The 15 goals allowed on the road is the second-worst mark in the EPL — and they have conceded the most shots attempts, the most shot attempts within the penalty box, and the most Big Chances on the road of all twenty EPL squads.
FINAL TAKE: Hosting the Clarets and their leaky defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this emotional Leicester City side that will be playing with something to prove for their fallen owner. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (2505) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-18 |
Manchester City -0.75 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
50 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Manchester City (2501) minus the goal-line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (2502). THE SITUATION: Man City (7-2-0) enters this EPL match coming off a dominant 5-0 win over Burnley last Saturday. Tottenham (7-0-2) has won four straight EPL matches after their 1-0 win at West Ham last week.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs look good on paper with their seven wins so far this season that has them 5th in the standings with 21 points. But Tottenham has only placed two of the Top-Six teams in the EPL this season with those contests resulting in a 2-1 loss at home to Liverpool and a 3-0 win at Manchester United against that team in the middle of their struggling campaign earlier this season. And these Spurs are not a confident group right now after already being eliminated from Champions League competition after their disappointing 2-2 draw with PSV last Wednesday. Tottenham lost a decisive match to Barcelona by a 4-2 score earlier this month. This team is playing with less energy on the pitch which has resulted in some sluggish efforts against lesser-tiered opponents that they managed to get by. Manager Maurice Pochettino has his team pressing less in their opponent's territory. Last year, the Spurs were 3rd in forcing turnovers in the last third of the pitch — but they have dropped to 13th in that category this season. Harry Kane is not in form with whispers getting louder that he is tired from a long summer campaign in the World Cup with England. The team does get Delli Alli back at midfield for this match — but that could create some short-term cohesion issues. Tottenham also does not retain much of a home-field advantage. They were supposed to be playing in their new stadium at this point but construction delays mean that this team is still calling Wembley Stadium their temporary home. This is just their fourth home contest in the EPL this season. They hosted Man City last year in April at Wembley and lost by a 3-1 score. Manchester City has outscored their four home hosts by an 8 to 1 margin so far this season. They also are 5-1-0 in their last six road matches played in London including winning four wins in a row. Manager Pep Guardiola is also 7-4-2 in his last encounters with Pochettino’s teams. Overall, Man City is outscoring their opponents by a dominant 26 to 3 goal differential. Those numbers should be more decisive since this team has been without their best player in midfielder Kevin DeBruyne. The Belgian superstar has been out since mid-August with an injury but returned to the pitch last week to help his team win their Champions League midweek match. While DeBruyne does not put up the best scoring numbers in the league, he is the glue for this team while also possessing the most dangerous leg in the world from 40-feet away. He makes this team even more dominant than their early season form suggests.
FINAL TAKE: One last important consideration is that these teams will be playing on a dodgy pitch for this one considering that this field was just used for the Eagles-Jaguars NFL game yesterday. This is the unplanned result of the Spurs’ new stadium not being ready. There simply is not enough time to get this field up to par again for a soccer match that wants a clean surface to facilitate passing. This hurts the Spurs since their movement is more pass-dependent. Man City can use their speed to move up the pitch with fewer passes. I think it is going to be difficult for Tottenham to score. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Manchester City (2501) minus the goal-line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Southampton v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (2519) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Southampton (2518). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (2-3-1) looks to build off their confidence-building 1-1 draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United last Saturday. Southampton (1-2-3) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss at Liverpool last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are unbeaten in their last four matches in the English Premier League as they are 2-2-0 in those contests. This team did lose their midweek match this week to Leicester City in the third round of the Carabao Cup but that is a lesser-tiered event. Manager Nuno Esparto Santo made nine changes for that contest but is expected to field his top XI group that has been playing consistently in their EPL matches. The Wanderers may be one of the three promoted teams this season but this group was considered perhaps the best team to ever be promoted to the EPL. They dominated the Champions League last year with 99 points and they were very active in the summer transfer window to flesh out a fully-formed team. There is a strong Portuguese contingent on this roster led by keeper Rui Patricio. The Wolves are playing outstanding defense as they are allowing only 1.0 Goals-Per-Game in EPL play. On offense, Wolverhampton is fourth in the league with 89 shot attempts — and this high level of activity should start producing more goals. They return home to Molineaux where they have not lost since last January with a significant home crowd advantage. Southampton has lost three of their last five matches in the EPL. The Saints were 17th in the EPL last season and they look destined to be fighting off relegation again this year. Southampton has scored only six goals this season — and they have only scored 45 goals in their last 50 EPL matches. This team has also failed to defeat a team in the top-half of the EPL standings in their last twenty-nine matches. They go on the road where they are 1-0-2 in their first three matches with a -3 net goal differential.
FINAL TAKE: The best the Saints are likely to achieve in this match is a draw on the road in a difficult place to play at Molineaux. The Wolves are still a bit underrated but are playing good soccer with plenty of confidence after their draw at Man United last week which was a come-from-behind goal. The Wanderers have legitimate aspirations to finish in the top eight in the EPL standings this year. They should win this match. 25* EPL Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (2519) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Southampton (2518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1 v. Manchester United |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (2503) plus the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (2504). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (2-2-1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win over Burnley at home last Sunday in their last English Premier League match. Manchester United (3-0-2) won their last EPL match last Saturday in a 2-1 win at Watford.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United are shaky home favorites laying at least a goal despite winning their last three matches in all competitions. The Red Devils return home for the first time in EPL play since their embarrassing 3-0 loss to Tottenham back on August 27th which put manager Jose Mourinho clearly on the hot seat. While the team has responded with three straight wins with two road wins at Burnley and Watford in EPL action along with a 3-0 win over the Young Boys in their Champions League debut this week, problems remain for this team. Mourinho still lacks reliable center back options on his back line. To compound matters for this match, his glue in the middle of the pitch in defensive midfielder Nemanja Matic is suspended for this match after receiving two yellow cards in that victory over Watford. Fred will replace Matic in the midfield but he is more of an offensive player — and that perpetuates the disconnect between the talent on this roster with the defensive tactics Mourinho prefers. Superstar midfielder Alexis Sanchez looks lost in Mourinho’s system. The team is also without one of their best forwards coming off the bench in Marcus Rashford who is still serving out a suspension. The Red Devils have a level net goal differential which does not speak well for their quality this season. The home field advantage they have enjoyed at Old Trafford has not been as pronounced as of late. They closed out last EPL season winning eight of their last nine at home — but they only won one of those last six matches at Old Trafford by more than one goal which makes the underdog an intriguing play for this contest. The Red Devils have also lost two of their last EPL matches at home. Manchester United was in much better shape to close out last year when they finished in second place in the EPL table. Their other home match this season was a narrow 2-1 win over Leicester City. They host a dangerous Wolves team that is unbeaten in their last three matches in the EPL after securing their second straight 1-0 victory clean sheet. The Wanderers entered the season with the hype that they might very well be the best-promoted side ever in the English Premier League after they dominated the Champions League last year with 99 points. This team was very ambitious than in the summer transfer window — this is a big and strong group that is brimming with confidence under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. This is a possession team that has a counter-attacking style that can help them pull upsets. They are the only team to put a blemish on reigning EPL Champions Manchester City with a 1-1 draw last month. What was impressive in their victory over Burnley last week was that they attempted an aggressive 30 shots. The Wolves are also playing some of the best defense in the EPL according to the deeper metrics — and they have allowed only five goals in their five matches. There is a strong Portuguese contingent on this roster led by their confident keeper Rui Patricio who is in outstanding form right now with his two straight shutouts.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester United has looked shaky this season — and they are undermanned in this match. They remain vulnerable to organized sides that will not be intimidated by their talent. Wolverhampton fits that description who should pull out a draw but are highly unlikely to lose by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Month with the Wolverhampton (2503) plus the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (2504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-18 |
Manchester United v. Watford +0.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Watford (2513) plus the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (2512). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (2-0-2) returns to the pitch after last week’s international week after they defeated Burnley on the road by a 2-0 score. Watford (4-0-0) remained perfect in the EPL this season after they defeated Tottenham by a 2-1 score two weeks ago on September 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE WATFORD PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United had almost reached a point of no return after they lost at home by a 3-0 score to that same Spurs team the week prior to Tottenham’s loss to Watford back on August 27th. Manager Jose Mourinho was clearly on the hot seat after that embarrassing loss at home before they rallied to defeat Burnley on the road last week. But that victory did not solve the underlying problems the Red Devils are facing. Manchester United’s talent does not seem to match the tactical approach of Mourinho who is in his ominous third year with the team. Mourinho has been bounced after his third season with both Chelsea and Real Madrid so he is used to his seat getting hot. This Red Devils team is a mess in their back end with Mourinho not able to decide on his back four — and the group lacks an elite-level center back. This is an undermanned group right now with Marouane Fellaini doubtful with a back injury and forward Marcus Rashford suspended for this match after being issues a Red Card in that match with Burnley. Manchester United also struggles on the road where they were they failed to win ten of their eighteen matches while only having a +9 net goal differential as compared to their sterling 17-2-1 mark at home where they scored 41 goals and allowed only 10. Watford is also a side that struggled on the road last year as their lost road win the EPL was all the way back to November before they defeated Burnley on their field by a 3-1 score last month. The Hornets are much better at home where they are 3-0 this year with a +5 net goal differential. Watford closed out last season not losing seven of their last eight matches at home. Manager Javi Garcia has his team playing very well together with a physical brand of soccer that emphasizes defensive tactics. The Hornets enjoy the lowest Expected Goals Allowed in the EPL while also ranking near the top of the table in fewest shots allowed in the box.
FINAL TAKE: After pulling off the upset over Tottenham in their last EPL match at home, Watford is a confident team that has plenty of momentum at home where they will be playing their fourth match in five contests. They have a good chance to pull the upset with the probability of the draw being high. 25* EPL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Watford (2513) plus the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (2512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Newcastle United v. Manchester City -2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (2519) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (2518). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (2-1-0) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton last Saturday. Newcastle United (0-1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Chelsea last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City is a heavy favorite in this match — but if overconfidence is going to be one of their biggest challenges after their historic championship campaign, this match should receive their full attention. Man City only had six matches all of last year that did not end in victory. Manager Pep Guardiola challenged his team after their listless 1-1 draw against the Wolves last week: "We dropped two, or won one point at Wolves. The secret last season was when we did that we won the next game." Indeed, Man City won all six of their matches after one of their four draws or two losses in EPL action last season while scoring 19 times and allowing just six goals in those contests. In their four matches after a draw (like last week) Man City’s goal differential was even better as they outscored their next opponent by a 13 to 4 margin for a +2.25 net Goal-Per-Game clip. That does not quite get to the -2.5 goals that most are being asked to lay in this contest — but there are more extenuating circumstances that compel me to think the defending champs win this by at least three goals. This match will be played in their house at Etihad Stadium where they were 16-2-1 while scoring 60 goals and allowing just 14 goals while producing eight clean sheets. Man City averaged 3.16 Goals-Per-Game at home last season — and they are averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game so far this year. Furthermore, Man City was simply dominate last September before Champions League play began to heat up. This squad is a perfect 7-0-0 in the month of September under Pep while scoring 26 goals and allowing a mere two goals for a +3.42 net goal differential per game that covers our goal-line. Look for forward Sergio Aguero to have a big day after he was held scoreless last week as he loves facing the Magpies. Aguero has 14 goals with three assists in his last eleven matches against Newcastle. He has scored eight times in his last two matches at home against the Magpies including a five-goal tally back in October of 2015. Newcastle has lost their last nine matches at Manchester City while being outscored by a 32 to 9 goal margin. Manager Rafael Benitez changed his defensive formation last week against Chelsea to play three in the back — but this rankled his captain Jamaal Lascelles who did not want to be moved to the outside. Benitez subsequently benched his captain for that match and his team was humiliated in the possession battle by seeing Chelsea control the ball for a whopping 81.1% of that match. Newcastle is last in the EPL with a low 33.5% possession rate — and they face a Man City team that is second to Chelsea with a possession mark of 68.7%. Expect Man City to seize the lead in that metric with the benefit of getting the Magpies this week — and they have plenty of firepower to eventually wear down teams who have parked the bus in back as they did against Huddersfield in their 6-1 victory in their other match at home this year. Newcastle played earlier this week in the Carabou Cup where they lost at Nottingham Forest by a 3-1 score that did little to offer confidence about their defensive play when playing in hostile environments. The Magpies were lost eleven of their nineteen matches on the road last year (4-4-11) while scoring only 18 goals while allowing 30 goals. Furthermore, in their five road matches against one of the Top Six sides in the EPL last year, Newcastle lost all five games while being outscored by a 2 to 10 goal margin.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester City should overwhelm the struggling Magpies in this match — the only issue is whether they win by three or more goals. With them coming off a rare draw and now playing at home in an early September match, I expect the reigning champions to be fully engaged in this match which spells trouble for Newcastle United. 10* EPL Newcastle United-Manchester City NBC-TV Special with the Manchester City (2519) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (2518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Burnley v. Fulham -0.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
102 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Fulham (2519) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2518). THE SITUATION: Fulham (0-0-2) is looking for their first point since being promoted to the English Premier League this season after losing last week at Tottenham against the Spurs by a 3-1 score last Saturday. Burnley (0-1-1) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss to Watford last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE FULHAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Burnley is also burdened right now with a Europa League schedule that began in late July which keeps them busy on Thursday nights traveling to various locations throughout Europe for that competition. The Clarets have already played eight competitive matches for their 2018-19 campaign after they come off a 3-1 loss at Olympiakos on Thursday. Although manager Sean Dyche made six changes for that match, this Burnley side will likely have heavy legs for this match given the physical burden of this opening stretch of contests. They have only scored four goals in those eight competitive matches with just one of them in EPL competition. The Clarets finished in a nice 7th place last year in the EPL — but the resulting qualification for the Europa League may serve as a pyrrhic victory for this club that wants to avoid relegation. Depth was an issue last year and they did not do much in the summer transfer window. Burnley is winless in their last seven EPL matches with four losses and three draws. They will be facing a hungry Fulham team eager for their first victory in the EPL since being demoted to the Champions League four seasons ago. But the Cottagers, at least on paper, have been considered one of the strongest promoted teams in ages in the EPL. They enjoyed a 23-match unbeaten streak in the Champions League last year while outpointing a Wolverhampton team in the second-half that is also considered one of the strongest sides to ever be promoted to the EPL. Fulham had the finances to enjoy an aggressive summer transfer session that brought in a handful of quality players on all three levels of the pitch. This team also gets back Denis Odoi who served a two-game suspension to begin the EPL season. The Cottagers looked pretty good on the road against the Spurs as they rallied from a one-goal deficit by tying that match at 1-1 before Tottenham’s quality finally making the difference when they scored two more goals at the 74th and 77th-minute marks to win that match. Fulham also had more plenty of scoring opportunities in their opening match against Crystal Palace before losing that match by a 2-0 score. That Crystal Palace team is underrated right now in my opinion so I do not consider it a slight in the least that this newly promoted Fulham side has yet to register a point in their first two matches.
FINAL TAKE: Fulham will be playing in front of an energetic crowd at Craven Cottage for this one. Look for them to overwhelm this Burnley side disadvantaged by their challenging Europa schedule. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Fulham (2519) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
West Ham United v. Arsenal -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
110 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Arsenal (2510) minus the Goal-Line versus West Ham (2509). Arsenal (0-0-2) has yet to register a point so far this season after losing to Chelsea on the road last Saturday by a 3-2 score. West Ham (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this English Premier League season when they lost at home to Bournemouth by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Arsenal should have at least earned a draw with Chelsea last week — they had golden opportunities to score where they failed to get the ball between the posts. It was expected that things would be a little bumpy for the Gunners in their first year without Arsene Wenger as their manager in twenty-three years. Unai Emery has taken over the team with the goal of proving more specific tactics on the pitch for this team after Wenger’s more laissez-faire approach. Arsenal has been outscored by -3 net goals in their first two games. However, they have also played the league’s most difficult schedule to begin the new campaign with their initial match being to host the defending champions Manchester City before traveling to face last year’s champs in Chelsea. This team should get right this week by hosting a weak West Ham side. The Gunners are 17-4-1 in their last twenty-two matches against the Hammers. Despite the poor final results, Arsenal has shown glimpses of progress in implementing Emery’s new schemes. West Ham has surrendered six goals so far this season. That is a very worrisome development for a side that was tied for last in the EPL last year by allowing 68 goals. The Hammers managed to stave off elimination last season but this is clearly a group that is still a work in progress this year. West Ham is vulnerable to opponents with powerful central midfielders so this may be the match where Arsenal’s Mesut Ozil breaks out of his slump. Also, look for the Gunners’ striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang to score his first goal of the new season after being prolific in his goal scoring since joining Arsenal last January when playing at home in Emirates Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: Hosting West Ham may be just what the doctor ordered for this Arsenal side that may not be ready to challenge Man City to win this year’s title but remain entrenched as one of the elite top-six groups in the EPL. Expect the Gunners to win by more than one goal. 25* EPL NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (2510) minus the Goal-Line versus West Ham (2509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-18 |
Liverpool v. Crystal Palace +1.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-143 |
20 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Crystal Palace (2510) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (2509). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (1-0-0) won their opening match in the 2018-19 English Premier League campaign with their 4-0 stomping at home against West Ham United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (1-0-0) also won their opening match with a 2-0 win on the road at Fulham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE PLUS THE POINTS: It is easy to get excited about Liverpool after a dominating victory like that. The Reds have designs on dethroning Manchester City this year as EPL champions after reaching the Champions League Finals last May. The Pool Boys are loaded with talent and made some nice additions in the summer to bolster their championship runs this season. But winning on the road against quality competition is easier said than done — especially when laying at least +1.0 goals. Liverpool was just 1-2-2 in their last five EPL matches away from their home in Anfield last year. They scored only five goals in those six matches with manager Jurgen Klopp making a subtle shift in their tactics in having them play more cautiously with defensive tactics when on the road. Defense remains a concern for this team with the lack of an elite central defender being one of the biggest vulnerabilities for this side. The Reds can struggle against opponents that commit to playing very deep defenses as it tends to frustrate the offensive talent available to Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool has won four straight matches at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace with three of those contests being in EPL play. Their last meeting with the Eagles hosting the game was back on March 31st where Liverpool won by a 2-1 score. That narrow loss may have represented a turning point for Crystal Palace as they closed out the season going an impressive 4-0-2 in their final six EPL matches while outscoring their opponents by a 14 to 5 goal margin. With their victory at Fulham last week, the proverbial Pride of London is now unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches while seeing an unbeaten friendlies record this summer sandwiching in-between these improved results. This is a team that started disastrously last year with seven straight losses to begin the 2017-18 campaign while failing to score in all seven matches. They brought on the veteran manager Roy Hodgson who settled the team with a modest approach. Getting healthy also helped as the Eagles got back their star striker in Wilfried Zaha who scored nine goals last year — and he scored the final goal last Saturday. Crystal Palace was 0-10 without Zaha last year but a more than respectable 11-11-6 with him on the pitch. The Eagles’ backline settled last year with James Tompkins and Mamadou Sakho getting to play next to each other in the center of their defense — they have not lost their last thirteen matches with those two playing together. This is a statement match for Crystal Palace who typically enjoys a strong home field advantage but have something to prove against the Pool Boys who have had their number as of late.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool may be a bit overconfident these days with all the championship talk — while Hodgson will be happy to play this match cautiously with a draw being a fine result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Crystal Palace (2510) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (2509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-18 |
Croatia v. France |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing France (9704) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9703). THE SITUATION: France (5-1-0) reached the World Cup Finals with their 1-0 win over Belgium on Tuesday. Croatia (6-0-0) joined them with this opportunity to win this championship the next day with their 2-1 win over England.
REASONS TO TAKE FRANCE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: I give a lot of deference to this Croatia team that has a starting XI that has played in a combined eight championship matches for their professional leagues. Luka Modric may very well be the best player on the pitch in this match. Yet I think there is just too much for them to overcome. I was impressed that they outplayed England in the second-half even without going to one substitute after playing two straight matches that needed extra time. However, that may speak more to that Three Lions team being overrated (especially after being dominated by Belgium in the Consolation match on Saturday) — and manager Zlatko Dalic may simply feel uncomfortable with the depth of his roster. But the fact remains that the Vatreni has played three straight knockout stage matches where that required the 30 minutes of extra time which means they have played a full match more than Les Bleus — and they will be playing this match with one less day of rest. Croatia has also trailed in all three of their Knockout Stage matches so they may be playing with fire when it comes to their playing the role of Cardiac Kids. Frankly, their strength of schedule has to also be called into question. Their Group was originally considered very difficult with Argentina, Iceland, and Nigeria — but while those latter two sides were of quality, Lionel Messi and company appeared to be overrated with the benefit of hindsight. Croatia faced Denmark and Russia in the Knockout Stage before defeating that England team that did not appear to be on the same level as the Belgium team that France just defeated. Les Bleus have only trailed in ten minutes in this tournament when Argentina took a 2-1 lead in their first Knockout Stage match — and they stormed back to score the next three goals in that victory. France has an average age of 26 while perhaps having the deepest roster of the entire tournament. Modric and a number of his teammates are on the wrong side of 30. And while the Croatia midfield eventually outclassed the Three Lions’ midfield on Wednesday, they will have a much harder task when battling this French midfield led by N’Golo Kante who will present the biggest challenge Modric has faced in this event. All this work that the Vatreni will have to manage gets compounded by the unique threat the 19-year-old sensation Kylian Mbappe presents with his speed. I would not be surprised if he gets free and burns this Croatia defense like he did against that older Argentina side. The French defense has been spectacular — they have allowed only four goals in their six matches with three of them occurring against in that Argentina match that became very aggressive. While I have been frustrated with Paul Pogba over the last two seasons, he is finally embracing the defense-first role in the midfield that Jose Mourinho has been trying to get him to play with Manchester United. Pogba has formed a dominant defensive front in the midfield when joining his energies with Kante and letting Mbappe shine in the spotlight up top with Antoine Griezman and Olivier Giroud. As opposed to many critics, I give Croatia enough credit to think that their forwards and midfield are a push — at worse — with the French offerings. But Les Bleus clearly have a big edge in talent in their backfield and with their goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.
FINAL TAKE: I think about the Euro Finals where France was upset by Portugal in a very similar betting situation. I took Lew Bleus that day thinking they were more in form and impressed that they had just defeated a Germany team that had won the World Cup in 2014. This is a roster ready for this moment — and they will not look past the Croatians especially with the professional pedigree of Modric and many of his teammates that are the best players in La Liga and Serie 1. When I start tallying up the intangibles I value when handicapping soccer, the ledger just becomes overwhelming for the French. 25* World Cup Match of the Year with France (9704) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
England v. Belgium |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Belgium (9701) minus the Goal-Line versus England (9700). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-1) comes off a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Croatia on Wednesday. Belgium (5-0-1) also has to settle for the third-place consolation match after they lost to France on Tuesday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: England was simply exposed in the second-half of their match with Croatia as the inexperience in big-time soccer matches for many of their young roster of players showed in some immature decisions which led to them blowing their early 1-0 lead. It will be hard for the Three Lions to recover emotionally from that loss. It may be even more difficult to bounce-back from the physical toll that match had on them. England is playing this match with one day less of rest while having played an additional 30 minutes. Belgium has a huge situational advantage in that regard. The Three Lions having significant fitness issues in this consolation match now with Kieran Tripper (who scored their lone goal on Wednesday) along with the heart of the defensive midfield in Jordan Henderson and Ashley Young likely to not play in this match due to injuries. The Red Devils are in better health for this match — and they demonstrated they have the better depth when they defeated England in that lame-duck Group Stage match by a 1-0 score with most of the stars on the bench resting for the Knockout Stage. Manager Roberto Martinez has proclaimed that his team will be going for the victory with the opportunity to earn a 3rd place finish which will best their 4th place finish for this national team in the 1986 World Cup in Mexico.
FINAL TAKE: England has benefited from a favorable schedule which featured two of the worst teams in this tournament in Panama and Tunisia in Group Stage play before facing a Columbia side in the Round of 16 with their best player, James Rodriguez, out with an injury. They then got to play a Sweden team that was probably the second weakest of all the Quarterfinal participants outside of Russia. The Three Lions were outclassed after the first-half against Croatia. Belgium’s 2-1 victory over Brazil in the Quarterfinals is the most impressive result for either team. The Red Devils also seem to be more motivated while being in better health and enjoy a significant situational edge. 10* World Cup Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Belgium (9701) minus the Goal-Line versus England (9700). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-18 |
England -0.25 v. Croatia |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-50.5 |
23 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing England (9703) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9704). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Sweden on Saturday. Croatia (5-0-0) matched that accomplishment by surviving facing the most nation Russia by winning a shootout by a 4-3 score after that match was deadlocked at 2-2 after 120 minutes of play.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND WITH THE GOAL-LINE: England was my Top Overlay bet before this tournament started because I thought the 20-1 odds they were getting (at least at South Point down the street) offered the best betting value of all the teams in this tournament. That said, I am not a betting zombie hoping to cash my England 20-1 ticket. I have been very impressed with Croatia in this tournament. My biggest concern for the Vatreni entering this tournament related to their team cohesion. Five victories later — including the last two via penalty kicks, those concerns have waned. However, I think it will be very difficult for this team to maintain their endurance after playing two straight matches that required 120 minutes before being resolved by the shootout. This is an older team particularly with their key players. Midfielder Luka Modric is 32-years-old while Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic join him in the middle after celebrating their 30th and 29th birthdays. Forward Mario Mandzukic is 32-years old while Nikola Kalinic is 30-years-old. Croatia is dealing with plenty of injury issues as well. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic is 33-years old — and he injured his calf during that match with the Russians. While he finished the match, he was clearly hampered by that injury. He will start this match but his effectiveness remains in doubt. The Vatreni are also dealing with an injury to their best defensive player in Atletico Madrid’s Sime Vrsalijko who suffered a knock on Saturday. Not only will Croatia miss his play on the pitch but the changes that his absence forces manager Zlatko Dalic to make impacts the cohesion of that back line. These injuries will negatively impact the defensive makeup for this team. The Vatrenia have allowed only one goal via a set piece in this tournament — but they have allowed 22 shots via set pieces which is tied for the most in this tournament. England has scored eleven goals in their five matches. Eight of these goals has come from set pieces (including three penalty kicks). The Three Lions are averaging 5.71 shots via set pieces per 90 minutes in this tournament with 1.73 of these shots being on target. They should generate good looks from set pieces against this Croatia side. England comes off their most complete match of the tournament in their 2-0 win over Sweden where they dominated that match. This young group has overcome 28 years of disappointment since their national team last reaches the Semifinals of the World Cup.
FINAL TAKE: The youth of this Three Lions side should benefit them in this match — as does the fact that they had things relatively easy in their last match. Croatia is intriguing but I think their injuries and their fitness after playing two long matches will be too much to overcome. 10* World Cup Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the England (9703) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-18 |
Belgium +0.5 v. France |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-182 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Belgium (9700) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or as +0.5 Goals) versus France (9701). THE SITUATION: France (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Uruguay on Friday. Belgium (5-0-0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 2-1 win over Brazil on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Les Bleus were very fortunate to catch Uruguay without Edinson Cavani who suffered a calf injury after scoring both of their goals in their 2-1 win over Portugal in the Round of 16. Cavani plays a key role with fellow forward Luis Suarez in giving that team a potent counterattack while they rely on their outstanding defensive tactics. I think his absence on the pitch in that match was a game-changer. Even without Cavani, La Celeste had the same number of shots as France with 11 while doubling the number of shots on target with four. Les Bleus scored their first goal in the 40th minute of the first-half and added a second goal with a poor play from Uruguay’s keeper Fernando Muslera in the 61st minute. Unfortunately for La Celeste, they see a big drop off in the complementary talent to Suarez when Cavani is off the pitch — just like Cavani has struggled in the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup along with the 2016 Copa America when Suarez was not able available. France is considered the likely favorite by many to win this tournament at this point but they have looked shaky at times. They only managed a 1-1 draw versus Denmark in their last Group Stage match before their defense looked porous in their Round of 16 match when an Argentina side that was struggling on offense scored three times against them. Granted, Les Bleus have tons of offensive talent on paper but they scored only nine goals in their five matches — and this speaks to perhaps their talent not being a good match for their schemes. While France has nice talent at forward, the lack of a true center-forward in the group results in these players mostly playing out of their natural position with their club teams. Ideally, that center-forward should be Karim Benzema but he was not selected for this team given a sex tape scandal he is in the middle of. Manager Didier Deschamps also has his team rely on crossing passes into the opponent’s penalty kick area which is not a great fit for taking advantage for all the speed this team possesses since those crosses typically require headers and physical play which does not play to these forwards strengths. France did reach the Finals of the 2014 World Cup but they were the host nation of that tournament and disappointed their home fans when they failed to defeat a Portugal side in the Finals that played most of that match without an injured Cristiano Ronaldo. I just don’t trust the key offensive players for the French. Antoine Griezman plays professionally for Atletico Madrid which is simply not an uber-elite team. Olivier Giroud has been a super-sub for Arsenal and now Chelsea but his weaknesses on defense have held him back from taking a greater role with those teams. And Paul Pogba has struggled to meet his vast potential so far with Manchester United with some of those issues carrying over into this World Cup. Belgium, on the other hand, has the most impressive victory for either of these two teams with their 2-1 victory over Brazil on Friday. Kevin DeBruyne demonstrated why he might be the most dangerous player in the world from 30 yards away from the goal when he scored what turned out to be the game-winning goal in the 31st minute with his screamer that caught the inside corner of the net. Belgium has won all five of their matches in this World Cup. The Red Devils have scored 14 goals in these games while outscoring their five opponents by +9 goals. France has scored only nine times in their five matches with a +5 goal differential. Team cohesion was a concern I had for this team before the tournament — but that is no longer an issue now. This group can play physical or the technical. They are also getting outstanding goaltending from Thibault Courtois who has the experience of winning an English Premier League with Chelsea.
FINAL TAKE: France is still quite young — their time might be four years from now. There is a sense of urgency with this Belgium group that their time is now to fulfill the potential of their golden generation. Les Bleus have the benefit of their recent success of reaching the Finals of the 2016 Euro while the Red Devils lost in the Quarterfinals — but the home field advantage for France was a huge factor in that run. In the end, I prefer the Belgium stars to the French starts right now. 25* World Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Belgium (9700) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or as +0.5 Goals) versus France (9701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-18 |
Croatia -0.25 v. Russia |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-57 |
17 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Croatia (9800) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Russia (9801). THE SITUATION: Croatia (4-0-0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the World Cup last Sunday when they defeated Denmark by a 5-4 mark in the shootout after that match finished in a deadlocked 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Russia (3-0-1) also survived via penalty kicks as they shocked Spain by a 4-3 score in the shootout after their match ended in a 1-1 score after the 30 minute extra time period.
REASONS TO TAKE CROATIA MINUS THE -0.5 GOAL-LINE: The second round of single elimination play is usually when upstarts get exposed — and I think this Russian side is in for a rude awakening after their monumental upset over Spain. La Roja was certainly frustrating in that match as their Tiki-Taka style too often seemed content with moving the ball horizontally while not taking the threat of what could happen if that match was decided by the somewhat random penalty kick shootout. This Bears team has worked hard — and effort can go a long way when playing defense. It also appears that FIFA has been pretty lax with enforcing their drug testing policies against this Russian team. But talent matters — and this is a team that was soundly defeated by Uruguay by a 3-0 score in their last Group Stage match. Their two wins in the Group Stage was against weak Saudi Arabia and Egypt sides. Home field advantage does mean something in the Knockout Stage — and this is why I passed on taking the superior Spanish side in the Round of 16. But playing at home can be a two-edged sword — and I would not be surprised if this Bears team is suffering the effects of the “Russian flu” after exceeding Putin’s wildest expectations regarding what this national team could accomplish while hosting the World Cup. Remember, this same team failed to advance out of the Group Stage in last year’s Confederations Cup. Almost their entire roster consists of players who compete in the lesser-tiered Russian professional league. While being a team that emphasizes defensive tactics, they have allowed goals in three of their four matches. And while the pressure is removed from this team, there no longer is a sense of urgency which can be dangerous for a group that suddenly finds themselves content and happy to be there. Croatia, on the other hand, arguably has as talented a roster as any team in this tournament. The Vatreni entered this event without much expectation — while they ranked 10th in the world by the Soccer Power Index put out by FiveThirtyEight’s metrics, they were ranked 20th in the world by FIFA and 17th in the world by ELO strength of schedule ranking system. The Las Vegas Southpoint down the street from the Hollywood Sports’ home office has them 30-1 to win this tournament. The reason for this skepticism was poor team cohesion that manifested itself in their most recent international tournaments. After failing to advance out of Group Stage play in the 2014 World Cup, Croatia lost in the Round of 16 in the 2016 Euro and then barely qualified for the World Cup while sacking their manager since 2015 late in that process. Off the field distractions continually followed this national team along the way. I mention all this because their victory over Denmark was a galvanizing moment for this team. To rally from a penalty kick deficit in that shootout to win offers this team a surge of movement moving forward. The past issues are now ancient history with the possibility of winning a World Cup firmly in place now. This team is loaded with talent particularly led by Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic to form what is probably the best quartet of midfielders in the world. And what is most important to me regarding this roster is that this moment is not too big for this group of individuals. Modric has been joined by Kovacic to form the midfield foundation of a Real Madrid that has won three straight Champions League — and Rakitic has been their primary rival in La Liga playing for Barcelona. The Vatreni have allowed only two goals in this tournament to win all four of their matches.
FINAL TAKE: The talent difference between these two sides is vast. Spain was too passive against the host nation — but I do not think Croatia will make the same mistake. The Spanish system is good in avoiding outright losses (in matches that end in draws), but a more aggressive approach should break the Russians down — just like Uruguay did. Russia will certainly park the proverbial bus in back. But constant pressure along with set pieces should eventually allow for Croatia to break through — and then the rout might be on. 25* World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Croatia (9800) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Russia (9801). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-18 |
England -0.5 v. Sweden |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (9803) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Sweden (9804). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of the World Cup by defeating Colombia on Tuesday by a 4-3 score in the shootout after that match was deadlocked at 1-1 after 120 minutes of play. Sweden (3-0-1) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 1-0 win over Switzerland.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE -0.5 GOAL-LINE: This has been a wonderful achievement for Sweden to reach the Quarterfinals after this team seemed to have lost their identity with the retirement from international play in their long-time talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group seems to have been liberated with his departure as they have re-established a national identity that focuses on teamwork and defense. But talent counts too — and the Blue and Yellow are overmatched in terms of overall talent on the pitch when facing this England team. In the Swiss, Sweden found a similar adversary who was sound and compact but lacked elite talent. The Blue and Yellow only controlled possession for 37% of that match but were able to threaten Nati Swiss with their counterattacks. However, Sweden has only scored six goals in their four matches. They also will be undermanned with defensemen Mikael Lustig suspended for this match due to yellow cards. This national team is only two years removed from a lackluster 2016 Euro — with Ibrahimovic — where they scored only one goal while failing to advance out of the Knockout Stage. England seemed to have their match in hand before they allowed a very late goal in stoppage time to Colombia to see that match extend in extra time and then the shootout. Manager Gareth Southgate did a great job in preparing his team for that situation by investing time in training for it for months. The Three Lions have a long history of nightmares in losing matches via PKs — but this group’s ability to survive and win a shootout should serve as a galvanizing moment for them. Talent has rarely been the issue for this team.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden will continue to play defense and take this chances in counterattacks. But England has too much offensive firepower to stay off the board — and the Blue and Yellows are not equipped to play from behind. 10* World Cup Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with England (9803) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Sweden (9804). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-18 |
Belgium +0.5 v. Brazil |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Belgium (9503) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus Brazil (9504). THE SITUATION: Belgium (4-0-0) reached the Quarterfinals of the World Cup by defeating Japan by a 3-2 score on Monday. Brazil (3-1-0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 win over Mexico in the first match on that Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: Belgium found themselves in deep trouble on Monday when Japan scored twice in the first seven minutes of the second-half to then be trailing by a 2-0 score. But the Red Devils persevered and scored 17 minutes later in the 69th minute to make it a match again — and they leveled the score at 2-2 five minutes later after their relentless pressure finally made the Japanese relent. Then rather than being content for 30 minutes of extra time, Belgium executed a flawless counterattack in the waning moments of stoppage time to walk away with the 3-2 victory. This kind of comeback victory should be galvanizing for this team. The Red Devils have won all four of their matches in this World Cup but team cohesion had been one of my biggest questions for this group. On paper, this Golden Generation of Belgium players is as talented as any national team in the world. This team leads this tournament with 12 goals — and their twenty-three match unbeaten streak is the longest in the world. Brazil comes off their best match in this event and they are now unbeaten in their fifteen matches. But this team is not at 100% with midfielder Casemiro suspended for this match after drawing his second yellow card and Marcelo dealing with a sore back. Both of these players serve important roles in the defensive formation of the Selecao. Casemiro stars for Real Madrid while Marcelo may simply be the best left back of all-time. Marcelo missed the Mexico match and is slated to return — but it remains uncertain how effective he can be. This is a nervy situation for a Brazilian side with high expectations despite still trying to erase the memories of their 7-1 loss at home to Germany in the Semifinals of the 2014 World Cup. This team lacks experience in defeating the elite national teams when the stakes are high. It also remains a question how Neymar will handle the pressure of this moment between his crying in relief after surviving Costa Rica in the Group Stage with two goals in the second-half stoppage time or his now ridiculous over-acting when trying to draw fouls. I worried that his decision to move from Barcelona to Paris Saint-German last year was a reflection of his inability to deal with the highest expectations on the world stage given that the French professional league, Ligue 1, is not as competitive as the Spanish La Liga. Belgium clearly presents the biggest challenge to the Selecao so far in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: I think Belgium is more dangerous in the rare role of the underdog than they are as the favorite in this tournament — so I really like this opportunity for them especially when they are +0.5 with the Goal-Line. The Red Devils can pull off the upset in regulation time — and a deadlocked score after 90 regulation minutes is a distinct possibility. 25* World Cup FS1 Match of the Year with Belgium (9503) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus Brazil (9504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-03-18 |
England v. Colombia +0.5 |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Colombia (9883) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus England (9882). THE SITUATION: England (2-0-1) reached the Knockout Stage after winning their first two matches in Group Stage play. With only first place at stake which did not guarantee a better Knockout Stage draw, the Three Lions played a listless match with a similarly unmotivated Belgium side that resulted in a 1-0 victory for The Red Devils. Colombia (2-0-1) needed a win while getting — and that all came together for Los Cafeteros as they defeated Senegal by a 1-0 score. But Colombia’s best player, James Rodriguez, injured his right leg in the match and has remained in doubt for this match even as we approach kickoff.
REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: The status of Rodriguez is critical for this match — and manager Jose Pekerman will wait until an hour before match time to reveal his plans for Rodriguez. Personally, I am expecting Rodriguez to take the pitch. Tests on Saturday revealed swelling but no muscle tear — so he has had over two days to reduce the swelling from that injury. While Rodriguez may not start the match, I will not be surprised to see him playing in the second half. That said, for the purposes of this play, I concluded that Colombia is worth an investment even if Rodriguez does not play. Los Cafeteros are loaded with talent in this golden generation of their national team even without Rodriguez. Their captain, Radamel Falcao, was injured and missed the 2014 World Cup where they made it to the Quarterfinals. Colombia also has a rising star in Juan Fernando Quintero and the player dubbed “James Junior” for his history of stepping up in Rodriguez’s absence. Quintero has been involved in three of Los Cafeteros’ five goals in this World Cup. Remember that Colombia’s loss to Japan in their opening match occurred when they were relegated to only ten players on the pitch after they suffered a red card in the opening minutes of that match. Look for the Colombian National Team to rally around each other given the injury to Rodriguez. England will be making a mistake if they take this team lightly given the unknown status of Rodriguez. Before this tournament started, I liked the Three Lions as my Top Overlay bet given their long 20-1 odds to lift the trophy. That investment is looking pretty good right now with perhaps a path cleared for this England team to reach the Finals. But this is a tough assignment for a national team that has a long history of disappointments at the World Cup. I don’t like the way they played against Belgium without any sense of urgency as this is a group that needs to continue to create momentum for themselves. Given that their match with the Red Devils had little at stake — and they rested eight starters — the strength of schedule for the Three Lions needs to be questioned with their other two matches being against lowly Panama and Tunisia. England is not battle-tested which is a scary way to prepare for an opponent that not only reached the Quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup but also plays a host of quality opponents in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers against strong national teams like Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile.
FINAL TAKE: If presented with this situation before the tournament, I might have taken England. I find the situational edge favoring Colombia entering this match. The Rodriguez injury situation is tricky — but that is why we have the opportunity to take the valuable +0.5 Goal-Line with Los Cafeteros. 10* World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Colombia (9883) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus England (9882). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-18 |
Switzerland +0.5 v. Sweden |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-250 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Switzerland (9876) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or +0.5 Goals) versus Sweden (9877). THE SITUATION: Sweden (2-0-1) reached the Knockout Stage with their surprising 3-0 upset win over Mexico last Wednesday. Switzerland (1-2-0) reached the Round of 16 with their 2-2 draw with Costa Rica on Wednesday. Both sides will be undermanned in this match given yellow card suspensions: midfielder Sebastian Larsson will be out for Sweden while the Swiss will be without two defensemen in Stephan Lichtsteiner and Fabian Schur.
REASONS TO TAKE SWITZERLAND WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The loss of those two defenders to Nati Swiss will hurt — but manager Vladimir Petkovic does have the benefit of depth in his backline. The key players for this Switzerland side are Sheridan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka who might be the two best players on this pitch in this contest. The Swiss National Team only needed a draw in that third match against Costa Rica — and they looked destined for the victory until they suffered an own goal in the waning moments in extra time in that match. Switzerland did fail to click in that match but they are still unbeaten in their last nine matches while scoring the final goal in five of those contests. They also took the still-favorites to win this tournament in Brazil to a 1-1 draw to begin this tournament. The Nati Swiss are well respected and capable while being solid at all three levels. Sweden may be due for a letdown after what was a near perfect performance against Mexico where they were able to use their size advantage against El Tri. The Blue and Yellow will not enjoy a size advantage in this match against a physical Swiss side. Sweden is a counterattacking team that matched-up quite well against a Mexico team that does struggle against that style of play. All three of their goals were in the second-half with the final two coming against an El Tri side beginning to play with desperation after surrendering the first goal at the 50 minute mark. The loss of Larsson in this match may be the more impactful suspension since Sweden lacks the depth of the Swiss while needing Larsson to defend against Shaqiri and Xhaka. The Blue and Yellow had scored only once in their final four friendlies before this tournament so their five goals in the Group Stage has been a surprise. But this side can go stagnant with their offensive productivity without it being a surprise. This is a team that has been liberated from the shadow of their long time talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic — so reaching the Knockout Stage has been a nice result for these players. But the overall talent level of this side remains a question.
FINAL TAKE: Now in a single elimination match where they can no longer sneak up on a Mexico team that perhaps was looking ahead, the bubble will likely burst for Sweden. Too much talent for Switzerland — even with the two suspensions on defense. Expect Shaqiri and Xhaka to do what it takes to lead the Swiss to victory. 25* World Cup Round of 16 Match of the Year with the Switzerland (9876) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or +0.5 Goals) versus Sweden (9877). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-18 |
Portugal v. Uruguay |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Uruguay (9762) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Portugal (9761). THE SITUATION: Uruguay (3-0-0) completed a perfect record in Group Stage play with three victories with their 3-0 win over Russia on Monday. Portugal (1-1-1) clinched their spot in the Round of 16 with a 1-1 draw with Iran on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE URUGUAY WITH THE GOAL-LINE AS A PICK ‘EM: Portugal entered this tournament hoping to expand the scoring options from their 2016 Euro where they did win the championship. But that was a tournament where the Seleccao was very fortunate to lift the trophy after escaping Group Stage play with just three points from their three draws. Portugal defeated Croatia by a 1-0 score in the Round of 16 in a match where neither team registered a shot on target in regulation time. They then survived a match with Poland in the Quarterfinals which needed to be resolved in a shootout after neither team scored in the 120 minutes of play. The Seleccao then had the fortune of facing a Wales team without two of their top three players who were out with injuries — and then they defeated a nervous French team in the Finals as the host nation even though Cristian Ronaldo left that match midway through the first-half with an injury. That win without Ronaldo built confidence for this tournament — but it has still be the Ronaldo Show who has scored four of their five goals. In fact, Ronaldo missed a penalty kick against the Iranians. After their 3-3 draw with Spain to open their World Cup in a match where they were outplayed but eked out the point due to Ronaldo’s brilliant hat-trick, manager Fernando Santos had his team revert back to the conservative approach where he hoped his team would not make a mistake until Ronaldo could make something happen with his enormous talents. Yet this Portugal side is much weaker in their back line two years later than the 2016 Euro group. Uruguay simply has more elite level talent to offset the gifts that Ronaldo brings to the pitch. La Celeste is led by Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani up top in being one of the few teams in this tournament that plays with two true forwards on the pitch. When Cavani scored in the 90th minute in their victory over Russia on Monday, that secured that both players had scored in each of the last three World Cups. But what makes this Uruguay side dangerous is their outstanding back line anchored by the Atletico Madrid duo of Jose Maria Gimenez and captain Diego Godin. This center-back duo may be the best in the world and brings manager Oscar Tabarez great cohesion on defense. Not only have La Celeste not surrendered a goal in this tournament but they have allowed only five shots on target in their three matches. This group will make things very difficult on Ronaldo. This is a very physical and hard-working group that perhaps has never been in better form under Tabarez’s long tenure with this national team since 2006. Uruguay made the Semifinals of the 2010 World Cup before losing in the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup which involved the infamous Suarez biting incident which had him suspended for that first Knockout Stage match. It was a Suarez injury that held La Celeste back in the 2016 Copa America where they did not advance out of the Group Stage. This is the last opportunity for this golden generation of core Uruguayan players.
FINAL TAKE: Uruguay looks very focused and united which has been a change in chemistry from their last three international tournaments. The “one superstar plus great defense” formula for Portugal that managed to fall into perfect place for Santos in the 2016 Euro has probably (and finally) run its course this afternoon. 25* World Cup Match of the Month with Uruguay (9762) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Portugal (9761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-18 |
Argentina v. France |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing France (9765) with the Goal-Line (as a pick ‘em or a -0.5 Goal-Line) versus Argentina (9764). THE SITUATION: Argentina (1-1-1) managed to reach the Knockout Stage of the World Cup with their 2-1 win over Nigeria on Tuesday. France (2-1-0) had already clinched first place in their Group after their second match which allowed them to rest players in their 0-0 draw with Denmark on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE FRANCE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Argentina looked to be on the verge of elimination in that match with Nigeria until defenseman Marcus Rojo executed a fantastic shot off his right foot to score the winning goal at the 86th minute mark. That kept La Albiceleste alive for the Round of 16 but fundamental problems remain for this side. As I indicated in my Report for that match, there has developed a serious rift between the players and manager Jorge Sampaoli over the starting XI and regarding tactics. The players have seem to have won that battle with Lionel Messi playing the role of LeBron James as the seeming manager on the pitch for this team. Many commentators noted that Messi played higher up on the pitch for this match — and this helped him have the space for a creative goal in the 14th minute of this match. What was less observed by these observers was that Messi’s position up high was made possible by the benching of Manchester City’s star attacker Sergio Aguero who had played that role in the first two matches in this tournament. Ageuro and Messi do not have good chemistry together — the Man City star has been mostly used as a bench player over the years in Argentina’s run to the 2014 World Cup Finals as well as the Finals of the 2015 and 2016 Copa America. It was Gonzalo Higuain who took his spot in the starting lineup on Tuesday — and he will likely stay in that role like he has for so many years with this national team. Age is a concern now for this group — and neither Higuan nor Messi have the legs to implement Sampaoli’s preferred high-press system for 90 minutes or more minutes. Before doing my deep dives on all 32 teams, I was leaning to Argentina as my Best Bet to win the tournament given the urgency Messi has in bolstering his international resume along with his strong supporting cast and the weaknesses I saw in their main competitors to lift the trophy. But upon closer inspection, it became clear to me that this Argentina team had likely missed their window of opportunity. La Albiceleste was rarely in form in their qualification matches for this tournament — and they changed managers by hiring Chile’s former manager in Sampaoli a year ago to inspire the team. But the urgency to win matches however possible to qualify prevented Sampaoli from using his first months with the team to implement his high-pressing attacking style that worked so well for Chile. Argentina’s aging roster also lacks a new generation of potential superstars: while half the roster entered this tournament with ten or fewer caps for the national team, only two of these players were younger than 25-years-old. That has left this side without an energetic young counterpart who can complement Messi with speed — instead, the likes of Aguero, Higuan or Angel Di Maria offer another aging player not as adept to execute this pressing system. An injury to keeper Sergio Romero has not helped matters. Chelsea backup Willy Caballero was shaky as the starter against Iceland before being a disaster in the match with Croatia — and he will be replaced for this match. However, his replacement, Franco Armani, will be starting his first match for La Albiceleste with tons of pressure on him. France entered this tournament with high expectations following their second place finish in the 2016 Euro. Their defense has been outstanding in this tournament as they have allowed only one goal off a penalty kick while giving up only five shots on target in their three matches. Their starting XI should be rested after most got the match off against Denmark with nothing at stake. Les Blues is a roster that oozes with talent with the core of the group from 2016 still in their prime.
FINAL TAKE: France is younger with more overall talent than Argentina. While Messi still has his powers, I think he is simply out-manned on the pitch in this one. La Albiceleste survived a big scare in the Group Stage but their flaws and inner turmoil should exposed this morning. 10* World Cup Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with the France (9765) with the Goal-Line (as a pick ‘em or a -0.5 Goal-Line) versus Argentina (9764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-18 |
Belgium v. England |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing England (9756) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em versus Belgium (9755). THE SITUATION: England (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Round of 16 on Sunday with their 6-1 victory over Panama. Belgium (2-0-0) also reached the Knockout Stage on Saturday when they defeated Tunisia by a 5-2 score. The result of this match will determine who finishes in first place in Group G with a draw triggering the Fair Play tie-breaker measuring which side has received fewer yellow and red cards — which England currently owns a slight lead.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND WITH THE GOAL-LINE AS A PICK ‘EM: Belgium has been impressive in this tournament by scoring eight times while only allowing two goals. But one would be foolish to read too much into victories over Tunisia and Panama who are two of the weakest teams in this field. The Red Devils are certainly loaded with talent. They finished in the Quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup where they lost to Argentina in the final eight. They also had a Quarterfinals run in the 2016 Euro where they lost to Wakes by a 3-1 score. And those results express a concern regarding this side: they are too likely to fold up shop when facing an opponent of equal or greater value. Team cohesion seems to be an issue for this group that perhaps has a fractured locker room. A roster filled with players that speak either French or Dutch coming from this small nation does not help the chemistry matters. Manchester City star Kevin DeBruyne called out manager Roberto Martinez last November after a 3-3 draw to Mexico where they were dominated in both possession time and aggressiveness. The tactical makeup of this group remains a question. Unfortunately for the viewing public this afternoon, it looks like we will not even have the opportunity to see these heavyweights battle at full strength. Martinez has communicated that his highest priority is to maintain his best possible group for the Knockout Stage — and that means resting some of his key players with only seeding at stake. Of course, the perception that the side of the bracket where the second place team will be slotted is a much easier road to the Semifinals makes this decision easier to make. Martinez also wants to avoid having some of his key players like DeBruyne avoid being called for a second yellow card which automatically suspends him for his next match. Striker Romelu Lukaku will not play after receiving a knock in that match with Tunisia. He may be joined by other English Premier League stars like Eden Hazard, Vincent Company and others who may use this opportunity to rest. This attitude seems to be the opposite of England’s manager Gareth Southgate who declared yesterday that his team will be “going for it” regarding earning the win. The Three Lions have not won a Knockout Stage match in a long time — it has been 28 years since this national team made a deep run in the 1990 World Cup where they reached the Semifinals. England failed to reach the Knockout Stage in the 2014 World Cup — and they were the upset victims of Iceland in the 2016 Euro in the Quarterfinals. Southgate thinks this group needs to continue to build confidence and momentum. Frankly, I think this collection of players would have a great chance of defeating Belgium even if the Red Devils were 100% committed to winning. With EPL stars of their own like Harry Kane up front, Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling anchoring the midfield and a strong group of fullbacks to cement the backline, talent is not the question mark for this group (1:15 PM ET UPDATE: the lineups have been released with Southgate choosing to bench Kane and Sterling amongst a handful of his starters. While I did not mention this in my original Report, (my Reports are long enough as is), I am comfortable with the bench options for England. Manchester United forward Marcus Ashford comes in for Kane as he joins Jamie Vardy as the scoring options up front — those are two talented players. The midfield depth is also capable — England’s depth is one of their strengths with stacked with big contributors to their EPL squads). The Three Lions have displayed outstanding offensive prowess by scoring eight times. They also have demonstrated exciting dead-ball prowess after scoring twice off headers from a corner kick and dead ball against Panama.
FINAL TAKE: Everything being equal, I like England to defeat a Belgium side with a history of underachievement against elite opponents in international competition. With the Red Devils likely benching their key players with an eye towards the Round of 16, this becomes a very nice opportunity for us. 25* World Cup Group G Match of the Year with England (9756) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em versus Belgium (9755). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Brazil v. Serbia +1 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Serbia (9744) plus the +1.0 Goal-Line versus Brazil (9743). THE SITUATION: Brazil (1-1-0) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over Costa Rica last Friday. They need a draw to clinch a spot in the Knockout State of the World Cup. Serbia (1-0-0) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Switzerland on Friday. They can the reach the Knockout Stage with a victory in this match.
REASONS TO TAKE SERBIA PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: I expect this to be a very nervy situation for the Brazilian team that entered this tournament with sky-high expectations — and the shocking loss by Germany this morning that eliminated them from this World Cup only fuels this pressure. The Selecao were still in a scoreless draw with Costa Rica entering stoppage time in the second half before Countinho scored to save the Brazilians. Neymar then added a second goal in the waning moments of stoppage time — but he has not been in form in this event. He is clearly feeling the pressure himself as evidenced by him crying in relief on the pitch after that match. That is not a good way to enter this match with their tournament lives on the line. The Selecao is 0-2-4 in their last six matches against a European team in the World Cup. And to compound matters, Brazil is also dealing with injuries with defenders Danilo and Douglas Costa on the shelf. Serbia following up their 1-0 win over the Korean Republic with their 2-1 loss to the Swiss. Aleksander Mitrovic scored first at the 5-minute mark for the Eagles but they allowed two second-half goals to let the match slip away. There is talent on this team led by Manchester United midfielder Nemanja Matic — the issue for this group has been cohesion and chemistry. Serbia has a history of choking in big situations as well — but they should relish this opportunity as the underdog with low expectations (just like Sweden versus Germany). The Eagles are not fast — but they are big and they can push around some of these Brazilian players.
FINAL TAKE: With Brazil just needing a draw, that looks like a highly likely result. This is a situation where we want the benefit of the +1 Goal-Line with the underdog as a one-goal loss for Serbia looks like the worst case scenario. 25* World Cup Group E Total of the Year with Serbia (9744) plus the +1.0 Goal-Line versus Brazil (9743). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-18 |
Argentina v. Nigeria +1.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Nigeria plus the +1.0/+1.5 Goal-Line versus Argentina. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (1-0-1) finds themselves very much alive to advance to the Knockout Stage of the World Cup after they defeated Iceland by a 2-0 score over Iceland last Friday. Argentina (0-1-1) must win this match — and then get some help from Croatia — to advance to the Round of 16 after they lost to Croatia by a 3-0 score last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE NIGERIA PLUS THE +1.0 GOAL-LINE: Argentina is simply a mess as a three-goal loss will attest. La Albiceleste went into halftime with a scoreless match — but their leaky and aging back-line surrendered three goals in the final 45 minutes. All the while, their superstar forwards Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero were mostly anonymous in this contest. Before doing my deep dives on all 32 teams, I was leaning to Argentina as my Best Bet to win the tournament given the urgency Messi has in bolstering his international resume along with his strong supporting cast and the weaknesses I saw in their main competitors to lift the trophy. While La Albiceleste has not lifted a trophy in international competition with Messi, they have been left at the altar with second place finishes in the 2014 World Cup along with the 2015 and 2016 Copa Americas. But upon closer inspection, it became clear to me that this Argentina team had likely missed their window of opportunity. La Albiceleste was rarely in form in their qualification matches for this tournament — and they changed managers by hiring Chile’s former manager Jorge Sampaoli a year ago to inspire the team. But the urgency to win matches however possible to qualify prevented Sampaoli from using his first months with the team to implement his high-pressing attacking style that worked so well for Chile. Argentina’s aging roster also lacks a new generation of potential superstars: while half the roster entered this tournament with ten or fewer caps for the national team, only two of these players were younger than 25-years-old. That has left this side without an energetic young counterpart who can complement Messi with speed — instead, the likes of Aguero or Gonzalo Tiguan or Angel Di Maria offer another aging player not as adept to execute this pressing system. An injury to keeper Sergio Romero has not helped matters. Chelsea backup Willy Caballero was shaky as the starter against Iceland before being a disaster in the match with Croatia — and he will be replaced for this match. However, his replacement, Franco Armani, will be starting his first match for La Albiceleste with tons of pressure on him. To make things even worse, Sampaoli will be implementing his third different formation for this match as he looks to find the secret formula for this team after shifting from a 4-2-3-1 against Iceland to a 3-4-3 against Croatia. It will likely be a 4-3-3 formation against Nigeria with the hopes that this will unlock Messi — but it is a sign of this team’s lack of organization that they are still searching two weeks into this tournament. Rumors abound regarding the chemistry of this team with the players in a near mutiny with Sampaoli over tactics and line-ups. Unfortunately, I am not surprised after completing my due diligence for this team. Nigeria, on the other hand, is loaded with pace and ability with the counterattacking talent to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Argentina. The Super Eagles are loaded with players exuding pace and ability. Nigeria is made of English Premier League players like Alex Iwobi of Arsenal, Kelechi Iheanacho of Leicester City and Mikel John Obi of Chelsea who all have something in common: donning their national team’s jersey affords them the opportunity to shine on the pitch after being pushed out of the way for the other stars on their professional teams. These three young players all have talent and are complemented by midfielders Victor Moses and Wilfried Ndidi who played more significant roles with Chelsea and Leicester City in both their recent EPL championship runs. They decisively defeated an Iceland side that not only earned a draw with Argentina this tournament but also secured an impressive win over England and a draw with eventual winner Portugal in the 2016 Euro. This group might very well be more talented than the team that lost to France in the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup. They entered this event in form having won six of their last nine matches which include impressive wins over Argentina and Poland. In fact, Nigeria has lost to Argentina in all four of their previous World Cup appearances. All those setbacks were by just one goal despite La Albiceleste usually in much better form — so the Super Eagles will be very comfortable and confident when facing this familiar foe.
FINAL TAKE: It looks like Obi will not be available for this match given a hand injury — but Nigeria remains capable in their midfield. Don’t be surprised if the Super Eagles pull the upset with a draw in this match more than likely. An Iceland loss sees the winner of this match advance to the Round of 16 — and a Nigeria draw or an Argentina victory doing the trick if they either side retains the better net goal differential after the Viking Boys’ result. Unfortunately for Messi, it looks like his decision to retire from international play after that 2015 Copa America was prescient over the dismal state his national team was going to be in. A divorce seems likely now for the golden generation of this team with their new manager. 25* World Cup Group D Match of the Year with Nigeria plus the +1.0/+1.5 Goal-Line versus Argentina. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-18 |
Peru v. Australia |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Peru (9400) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Australia (9401). THE SITUATION: Australia (0-1-0) stayed alive to reach the Knockout Stage of the World Cup with their 1-1 draw with Denmark. Peru (0-0-2) was eliminated from the Knockout Stage by losing to France by a narrow 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE PERU AS A PICK ‘EM WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Peru has been hard-luck losers in both their matches despite having nothing to show for it. They controlled possession against a power French side for 56% of their match. They also won the possession battle in their 1-0 loss to Denmark. They have attempted 27 shots but have not found the back of the net. Los Incas have played tight on defense as they have only conceded two goals. Peru is a battle-tested team that finished 5th in a very competitive CONMEBOL (finishing above reigning Copa America champion Chile). Peru reached the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America (with a win over Brazil) after a strong 3rd place finish in the 2015 Copa America. Manager Ricardo Gareca has this team in excellent form as they had not lost their last twelve matches since a 2-0 loss to Brazil in November of 2016 before Saturday’s setback. The Incas high-press creates scoring opportunities which should eventually break through with all the scoring opportunities they are generating. Peru does have recent experience facing teams from the Oceania Federation that Australia won as they defeated New Zealand by a 2-0 aggregate score in a playoff in the qualification phases of this World Cup. Australia has lost their last twelve matches away from home before earning the one point with their draw with Denmark. The Socceroos have allowed at least one goal in their last twelve World Cup matches so Los Incas have a good chance of registering their first goal in this tournament. Australia has scored a goal via a penalty kick in three straight World Cup matches but the problem for this team is that they have not scored any other goals in these matches without the benefit of that scoring opportunity. The Socceroos need a win in this match while scoring more goals than what Denmark scores against France in what must be a loss to Les Blues — only then will Australia advance to the Round of 16. But this side simply lacks elite talent on their roster. They will also be without their starting striker Andrew Nabbout who is injured with a dislocated shoulder.
FINAL TAKE: Peru has played two quality matches but has been snake-bit when it comes to positive results. But with a strong fan base still in Russia, Los Incas should remain very motivated to win this match for pride in their first World Cup in 36 years. 25* World Cup Group C Match of the Year with Peru (9400) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Australia (9401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-18 |
Portugal v. Iran +1.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Iran (9720) plus the +1.0/+1.5 Goal-Line versus Portugal (9719). THE SITUATION: Iran (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Spain last Wednesday. Portugal (1-1-0) comes off a 1-0 win over Morocco. Iran needs a win to advance to the Knockout Stage while a draw will ensure that Portugal will play in the Round of 16.
REASONS TO TAKE IRAN PLUS THE +1.0/+1.5 GOAL-LINE: Iran accounted for themselves very well in their match with Spain. They frustrated La Roja often in that match with their outstanding defensive play. ,b>Team Melli is managed by one of the best in the world in Carlos Queiroz who has previously managed both Real Madrid and the Portugal national team. He has this Iranian team played a very compact and organized scheme on defense that also frustrated Morocco. Team Melli has allowed only one goal in this tournament. Iran had to get more aggressive after surrendering a goal to Diego Costa at the 54th minute mark — but they almost evened the match a number of times. One Spanish player after the match said that Iran was more difficult than their first match against this Portugal side. Team Melli clearly looks to be the best national team in Asia and will play very hard this afternoon. Portugal is not a reliable favorite when being asked to lay a goal (or more). In their Euro 2016 championship run, they only defeated an opponent by more than one goal only once — and that was a 2-0 win over a Wales team in the Semifinals that were missing their second and third best players to injury. The Seleccao followed up their 3-3 draw with Spain with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring his fourth goal in this tournament 4 minutes into that match with Morocco. But Portugal was unconvincing for most of that match in which they lost the possession battle by a 47% to 53% mark while also being outshot by a 16 to 10 margin. Portugal has weaknesses in their back-line which contributes why they play very conservatively.
FINAL TAKE: Portugal will be happy with a draw — so I do not expect them to take many chances. Ronaldo is playing outstanding right now — but I see a victory for The Seleccao by one goal the likely worst case scenario. A draw is most likely with an outside chance that Iran pulls the upset. 25* World Cup Group B Underdog of the Year with ran (9720) plus the +1.0/+1.5 Goal-Line versus Portugal (9719). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-18 |
Russia v. Uruguay |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
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At 10:00 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Uruguay (97891) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em versus Russia (97890). THE SITUATION: Uruguay (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia last Wednesday. Russia (2-0-0) also clinched one of the sixteen slots in the Knockout Stage when they defeated Egypt by a 3-1 score last Tuesday. Uruguay needs a victory to earn the top seed coming from Group A while Russia will be happy with a draw given their +7 goal differential after the first two matches.
REASONS TO TAKE URUGUAY AS A PICK ‘EM WITH THE GOAL LINE: Russia has been the surprise of the tournament with them scoring eight goals in their first two matches. But I think that speaks more to the poor quality of their opponents as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are two of the bottom teams in this World Cup. The Bears benefited from an own-goal by Egypt in their match on Tuesday — and that shifted the momentum as Russia then scored two more times in the next fifteen minutes to seize a 3-0 lead. Mo Salah did score on a penalty kick eleven minutes later but it was clear that the Liverpool star lacked fitness for that match after being out for three weeks with the injury he suffered in the Champions League Final. Yet Russia lost the time of possession battle by a 53% to 47% margin while being outshot by 13 to 11 shots. This will now be the trickiest match for the Russians so far in this event. They will also still be without a key piece in their midfield in Alan Dzagoev who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Russia is benefiting from being the host nation of this tournament (along with FIFA perhaps looking the other way when it comes to drug testing). But the Bears are also the team that did not advance out of the Confederation’s Cup last summer after failing to win a match in the 2016 Euro. This is a roster full of players coming from the Russian professional league that is not considered world class. Uruguay is loaded with talent from the upper-tier European leagues. They will be without Atletico Madrid defenseman Jose Maria Gimenez who is dealing with a thigh injury but they are still loaded on their back line with his Atletico Madrid teammate Diego Godin. La Celeste has not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Up top, Uruguay has two world class forwards in Barcelona’s Luis Suarez and Paris Saint-German’s Edinson Cavani. La Celeste has not been flashy with their goal scoring but they have controlled both of their matches. Uruguay is an accomplished team who reached the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup before finishing 2nd in the very competitive CONMEBOL qualification group even with Suarez and Cavan dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Russia will be playing with plenty of confidence — but the step up in competition should catch up with them. 25* World Cup Monday Morning Special Feature with the Uruguay (97891) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em versus Russia (97890). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-18 |
Colombia v. Poland +0.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Poland (9711) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus Colombia (9710). THE SITUATION: Poland (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 2-1 loss to Senegal last Tuesday. Colombia (0-0-1) is also without a point in Group H play after they lost to Japan by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE POLAND PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: The White and Reds are led by the 29-year-old Robert Lewandowski. The Bayern Munich star has scored in 21 goals in his last sixteen matches for the Polish national team — and he needs to get going in this match. He did not get enough touches in their loss to the Lions of Teranga. Poland did control the ball for 57% of that match while outshooting them by a 10 to 8 margin. Yet they found themselves trailing by a 2-0 score before Grzegorz Krychowiak scored at the 80th minute mark to give his side hope. Lewandowski should be the best player on the pitch — and he is joined by a talented midfielder in Piotr Zieleinski who is using this tournament to audition for a job in the English Premier League. This is a young and talented side that has improved since their Quarterfinals run in the 2016 Euro where they lost in a heartbreaking shootout to the eventual winners in Portugal. The White and Reds scored 25 goals in their ten qualifying matches for this tournament. Colombia was cold in their 2-1 loss to Japan where they had to play with only ten men for most of that match after being issued a red card in the 6th minute of that match. Los Cafeteros also did not start their talisman James Rodriguez who had a knock entering that contest but did come off the bench in that match. He should start this afternoon. But this is a side that has lost five with two draws in their seven all-time matches from a team from Europe in World Cup competition. Los Cafeteros did reach the Quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup — but that was played in their continent in Brazil. They also had a favorable Group draw with Greece, the Ivory Coast and Japan their competitors before facing a Uruguay side in the Round of 16 without their best player in Luis Suarez who was suspended for that match for his infamous biting incident. This Colombian side usually takes advantage of their opportunities against lesser talent but folds against more quality competition when the stakes are high. In their qualification matches, Los Cafeterias lost to Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Argentina twice but took care of business as bottom feeders for the remaining squads from CONMEBOL.
FINAL TAKE: Colombia may be a bit overrated relative to their results since their surprising 2014 World Cup run where they enjoyed a geographical edge. Poland is in the midst of their own golden generation — they have a good chance to win this match with a draw a likely possibility as well. A draw keeps both teams alive entering their third match next week. 25* World Cup Group H Match of the Year with Poland (9711) plus the +0.5 Goal-Line versus Colombia (9710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-18 |
Sweden v. Germany -0.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Germany (9702) minus the Goal-Line versus Sweden (9701). THE SITUATION: Germany (0-0-1) were upset in their opening match last Sunday in their 1-0 loss to Mexico. Sweden (1-0-0) sees themselves tied in first place with El Tri in Group F with their 1-0 win over the Korea Republic.
REASONS TO TAKE GERMANY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Germany finds themselves in a must-win situation in this match with both the Swedes and the Mexicans both with 3 points already.
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06-22-18 |
Nigeria v. Iceland |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
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At 11:00 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing Nigeria (9472) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Iceland (9473). THE SITUATION: Nigeria (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Croatia last Saturday. Iceland (0-1-0) wants to build off the momentum of their 1-1 draw with Argentina.
REASONS TO TAKE NIGERIA AS A PICK ‘EM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Viking Boys accomplishment in taking a point off Argentina is not looking as impressive now after Lionel Messi and company were thoroughly defeated by Croatia by a 3-0 score yesterday. Iceland was dominated statistically to Albiceleste in that match as they were outshot by a 26 to 9 margin — and the Viking Boys held possession for just 28% of that match. The nation of 300,000 people that is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup has captured the fascination of fans — but this team looks to be not as dangerous as the one that made it to the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Euro. Their defensive backfield is particularly an issue as it lacks pace against faster sides — and that is something that this young but fast Nigerian team should be able to exploit. Iceland also has fitness issues with their midfielder Johann Gudmundsson out for this match. The midfielder plays a key cog in the middle of the field for the Viking Boys after playing a similar role for Burnley this season in their surprising 7th place finish in the English Premier League. They will be facing a desperate Nigeria side that needs some kind of result in this match after getting spanked by the Croatians. Of course, that loss does not look as bad this morning after what the Vatreni did to Argentina. Perhaps the Super Eagles were too cautious early in that match as they did not put a shot on goal in the first 45 minutes — and they also suffered an own goal in the first half. That opening loss aside, this team is loaded with players exuding pace and ability. Nigeria is made of English Premier League players like Alex Iwobi of Arsenal, Kelechi Iheanacho of Leicester City and Mikel John Obi of Chelsea who all have something in common: donning their national team’s jersey affords them the opportunity to shine on the pitch after being pushed out of the way for the other stars on their professional teams. These three young players all have talent and are complemented by midfielders Victor Moses and Wilfried Ndidi who played more significant roles with Chelsea and Leicester City in both their recent EPL championship runs. This group might very well be more talented than the team that lost to France in the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup. They enter this event in form having won six of their last nine matches which include impressive wins over Argentina and Poland.
FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has only one player over the age of 30 — they should be one of the teams that takes a significant step up in quality after their opening match. Look for the Super Eagles to win this match with a draw likely being the worst-case scenario for them. 10* World Cup Nigeria-Iceland Fox-TV Special with Nigeria (9472) as a pick ‘em with the Goal-Line versus Iceland (9473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-18 |
Costa Rica +2 v. Brazil |
|
0-2 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
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At 8:00 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing Costa Rica (9469) plus the Goal-Line versus Brazil (9470). THE SITUATION: Brazil (0-1-0) only earned one point in their opening match last Sunday in what ended up in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. Costa Rica (0-0-1) will be desperate for some kind of a result after losing to Serbia on Sunday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE COSTA RICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Brazil was 1.5 goal favorites against the Swiss so that was a very disappointing result for the side that many consider the favorite to win this tournament. The Selecao controlled the action early and was rewarded when Coutinho scored at the 20 minute mark — and everything was right on pace for this team. But Switzerland came out after the break with renewed energy and quickly leveled the score within five minutes. From then, Brazil lost poise as they continued to get caught in the Swiss defensive web and settled from the draw. Injuries are now an issue for the Selecao in this match. Manchester City defenseman Danilo is out for this match with a thigh sprain. And while their talisman, Neymar, returned to training on Wednesday from an ankle injury that had him hobbling off the pitch the day before, he may not be at 100%. Brazil faces an experienced Costa Rica side that will be able to mimic Switzerland’s pressing in the midfield that so frustrated them on Sunday. Los Ticos shared in possession at a 50% clip with Serbia while also matching them with 10 shots and three on target in what was a very even match. Costa Rica did not take advantage of their scoring chances in the first half and then gave up the winning goal just over 10 minutes into the second half. The core of Los Ticos roster remains the group that reached the Quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. While this group is making their final run of this golden generation, they should play at their very best against their CONMEBOL rivals where they get to play the role of spoiler. Costa Rica is a counter-attacking team that prides themselves in tough defensive tactics. Los Ticos are led by Real Madrid’s starting keeper Keylor Navas who is the first goalie to ever win three straight Champions League championships. Navas is also very familiar with Neymar’s tendencies with him being a centerpiece of arch-rival Barcelona before the Brazilian forward bolted to Paris Saint-German this year.
FINAL TAKE: While I would not be surprised if this match ended in a draw, Brazil is likely to win this match. However, the Selecao winning by more than one goal against Navas and this stout Costa Rican defense is not very likely against such a veteran side that is both confident and well organized. 10* World Cup Friday Morning Discounted Deal with Costa Rica (9469) plus the Goal-Line versus Brazil (9470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-18 |
Croatia +0.5 v. Argentina |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Croatia (9463) plus the Goal-Line versus Argentina (9464). THE SITUATION: Argentina (0-1-0) settled for a 1-1 draw with Iceland last Saturday in their opening match in the World Cup. Croatia (1-0-0) is alone in first place in Group D with their 2-0 victory over Nigeria.
REASONS TO TAKE CROATIA PLUS THE +0.5 GOAL-LINE: Argentina was frustrated by the defensive tactics of Iceland who were content to park the bus in their back end. La Abliceleste scored only once despite their attempting a whopping 26 shots — but Lionel Messi continued his disappointing play in World Cup competition by missing a penalty kick which was his team’s golden opportunity to pull away with a victory. Argentina was not in form for most of their qualification matches for this tournament. That created a sense of urgency for manager Jorge Sampaoli to do whatever was necessary for La Abilceleste to reach the World Cup — and those tactics perhaps came at the expense of his imposing his high-pressing style of play with this group that was successful when he was the manager for Chile through the 2015 Copa America. Argentina is a talented team but many of these players are in the twilight of their career. Unfortunately, there does not seem to be a new generation of young stars emerging for this group. Half of the roster consists of players that entered this tournament with ten or fewer caps — yet only two of these players are under the age of 25. These players are not necessarily rising stars finally getting their chance but individuals that have yet to force their way on to the pitch in their careers. La Abliceleste’s ability to slow down their opponents remains a big concern for this team whose high press makes them vulnerable in their back end that consists of players that are perhaps now too slow and still unfamiliar with Sampaoli’s high-pressing system. Croatia will be relaxed after their decisive victory over the Super Eagles — and that makes them dangerous as technical underdogs. The Vatreni are very gifted with attacking players that are aggressive within their possession tactics. Led a sublime midfield of Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic along with Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic, the Vatreni will never feel inferior in talent to their opponents. Team cohesion has always been the biggest concern for this team but their chemistry looked quite good in their win over a talented Nigerian side. Croatia tends to raise their play against elite competition — they defeated Spain in Group Stage play by a 2-1 score in the 2016 Euro before losing a heartbreaker in the Round of 16 to Portugal in a game that was scoreless before a 5-4 result in the shootout.
FINAL TAKE: Argentina appears past their prime — they are overvalued against a talented Croatian team that is very capable to pull the upset. 10* World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Croatia (9463) plus the Goal-Line versus Argentina (9464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-18 |
Peru +1 v. France |
|
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 11 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Peru (9461) plus the Goal-Line versus France (9462). France (1-0-0) won their opening match on Saturday with their 2-1 win over Australia which gives them a share of first place in Group C. Peru (0-0-1) suffered a 1-0 loss to Denmark to put them tied with Australia in the basement of Group C.
REASONS TO TAKE PERU PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Incas deserved better in that match with the Danish Dynamite. Peru dominated the first-half in that contest but could not capitalize. They surrendered a goal in the second-half and could not level the score despite controlling possession for 52% of that match while outshooting Denmark by an 18-10 margin along with leading seven to five with shots on target. Los Incas’ talisman, Paolo Guerrero did not start in that match with perhaps manager Ricardo Gareca concerned about his fitness after dealing with his suspension mess over a failed drug test (Guerrero won on appeal that his positive test for a chemical found in cocaine actually came from “tainted tea”). Guerrero should start in this crucial contest for this national team that must at least secure a draw to stay alive to advance to the Knockout State. Peru is is a battle-tested team that finished 5th in a very competitive CONMEBOL (finishing above reigning Copa America champion Chile). Peru reached the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America (with a win over Brazil) after a strong 3rd place finish in the 2015 Copa America. Gareca has this team in excellent form as they had not lost their last twelve matches since a 2-0 loss to Brazil in November of 2016 before Saturday’s setback. The Incas high-press creates scoring opportunities — and this is something that the French national team can struggle with. Les Bleus were sluggish and perhaps a bit lucky to exit that match with Australia with the victory. France consistently plays up or down to their competition. As the host nation in the 2016 Euro, they were often nervy and unsteady in their three Group Stage matches before seeing their form improve against elite competition in the Knockout Stage before losing in the Finals to a Portugal side that played most of that match with an injured Ronaldo on the sidelines. Les Blues are blessed with one of the most talented rosters in the world — but the concern is that this underachieving group consists of individuals more passionate about their other pursuits on and off the pitch than they are about sacrificing for their national team. The parts remain greater than the whole for this collection of talent with forwards Antoine Greizman and Kylian Mbappe perhaps being asked to take leadership roles up top when they are more comfortable playing second fiddle to another central forward doing the grunt work to spray the ball loose. In the midfield, N’Golo Kante thrives with Chelsea when he has the freedom to chase the ball relentlessly while having the confidence that he has another holding defensive player in the midfield — but that is something he cannot risk doing when where the French kit since his teammates in the middle all have offfensive aspirations. Paul Pogba also is a bit out of place in the middle not being able to drift in attack mode with teammate Corentin Tolisso committing to those tendencies. Manager Didier Deschamps are perhaps playing too slow on the pitch while being too reliant on crosses to generate their scoring chances in the penalty area rather than relying on their natural speed in a more direct style. The French also have big question marks with their left and right back with their defensive group which made it unsurprising that Australia was able to register a goal. Remember, it was an own-goal by the Socceroos that ended up making the winning difference for France.
FINAL TAKE: With France being a bit overrated and now facing a desperate but dangerous Peru side, lets take Los Incas plus the goal-line where we win if the match ends in a draw or Peru upset win while escaping with a push if France wins by just one goal. 10* World Cup Thursday Morning Discounted Deal with Peru (9461) plus the Goal-Line versus France (9462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-18 |
Morocco +1.5 v. Portugal |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Morocco (9451) plus the Goal-Line versus Portugal (9452). THE SITUATION: Portugal (0-1-0) enters their second match in Group B play coming off a dramatic 3-3 draw with Spain last Friday. Morocco (0-0-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat from a devastating 1-0 loss to Iran on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE MOROCCO PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal was carried by Cristiano Ronaldo who produced a hat trick to rob Spain of the three points with a victory in their opening match. The Seleccao managed to possess the ball for just 39% of that contest. At first glance, it might look easy to lay (at least) the goal with Portugal given the dynamic powers of Ronaldo on the pitch. However, remember that he entered this World Cup with three career goals in two previous tournaments — so he doubled that amount against Spain. The Seleccao may be the reigning 2016 Euro champions but only their Semifinals match with an injured Wales side was decided by more than one goal. They settled for draws in all three of their Group Stage matches while scoring no more than one goal in five of those seven matches. In last year’s Confederations Cup, Portugal scored nine goals — but four of those came in one match against an overmatched New Zealand side. The Seleccao grinds out low-scoring matches relying on the talents of Ronaldo to pull out wins (or draws) under manager Fernando Santos. The scoring fest which was their first match with Spain perhaps speaks more to their leaky aging backline. Morocco did not allow an Iranian player to score in their match as it was an own-goal from a header off a corner kick that accidentally made the difference late in stoppage play. The Atlas Lions controlled the time of possession by a 64% to 36% margin while also outshooting the Iranians by a 13 to 8 margin. Morocco remains a dangerous team that had won six of their last seven matches (including friendlies) entering this tournament. They were unbeaten in their qualifying matches while not surrendering a goal — so it should be difficult for Portugal to score on them.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a low-scoring contest. A draw is a highly likely outcome with a 1-0 or 2-1 result for Portugal likely being the worst case scenario for Morocco. The +1 (or more in some locations) Goal-Line should be very valuable in this contest. 10* World Cup Wednesday Morning Discounted Deal with Morocco (9451) plus the Goal-Line versus Portugal (9452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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