07-07-19 |
United States v. Mexico OVER 2 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) remained unbeaten in the 2019 Gold Cup after they defeated Jamaica in the Semifinals of this tournament by a 3-1 score. Mexico (W4-D1-L0) made it to the championship of this event when they defeated Haiti on Tuesday by a 1-0 score. This match is being played in Chicago’s Soldier Field.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The United States had not conceded a goal in this tournament before the Reggae Boyz broke that seal in the 69th minute of that match. Jamaica is a defensive-oriented team who had to push their aggressiveness after falling behind by a 2-0 score. The Stars and Stripes have played a group of teams in this tournament who tend to play back to defend which choosing their battles with counter attacks. This will be the most aggressive opponent they will have faced in this event against this Mexico team that likes to play on their front foot. Rookie manager Gregg Berhalter has this team playing more ambitiously as well by implementing a counter pressing attack. This is a formula for higher scoring matches when facing the more talented and offensively oriented teams in the world. The US backline was demonstrating some vulnerabilities in their friendlies in preparation for this tournament — especially in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela on June 9th. But what has been the most impressive development for this team has been the emerging chemistry between their two young stars Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie. Both players scored on Wednesday with Pulisi scoring the final two goals for the US in that match in their victory over Jamaica. They have combined to score five of the Stars and Stripes fifteen goals. They will likely be joined by veteran forward Jozy Altidore who started in the match against Jamaica after beginning this tournament on the bench. Altidore had 42 goals for the USMNT. Mexico has also scored fifteen goals in their five matches. Yet El Tri has scored only one goal in the first 90 minutes of their last two matches. Much of the reason for that is that Haiti and Costa Rica in the quarterfinals were content on playing lower scoring matches. Mexico allowed seven goals in their four World Cup matches last summer so they have shown themselves vulnerable to opponents that play aggressively.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this match — and I expect at least three combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes with both of these teams likely to push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. USA (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W6-D0-L0) reached the Finals of the Women’s World Cup with their 1-0 victory over Sweden on Wednesday. The United States (W6-D0-L0) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory over England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: When Christen Press scored her header in the 10th minute of that match with England, it was the sixth straight time that the United States scored the opening goal in the first ten minutes of the match. Putting their opponents on the back foot changes the tempo of the match since the other team has to play more aggressively with their need to score to tie the match. Both teams have scored in all three of the Stars and Stripes matches in the Knockout Stage of this tournament. All three of those matches also saw at least three combined goals scored. The Americans have scored at least twice in all six of their matches in this tournament — and they are one goal away from tying the World Cup record of 25 goals in one event. The Netherlands had scored in eight of their previous ten matches in the second half before their match with Sweden needed extra time after the nil-nil score after 90 minutes. The Orange Lionesses have a powerful front-three attack with Lieke Martens, Shanice van de Sandeen, and Vivianne Miedema — and they also have a super sub at forward in Lineth Beerensteyn. Defense was considered the weak link for this team but they have been able to embrace defensive tactics in this tournament by always being the first to score and never trailing in any of their six matches.
FINAL TAKE: The Netherlands enter this match on a 257 minute shutout streak — but that dynamic changes if they find themselves trailing for the first time in this tournament. The Dutch scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches to win the 2017 Euro Championship. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-19 |
Senegal v. Uganda UNDER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750) in the Round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations. Senegal (2W-0D-1L) reached the Knockout Stage of the African Nations Cup with their 3-0 victory over Kenya on Monday. Uganda (1W-1D-1L) comes off a 2-0 loss to Egypt in their last Group Stage match on Sunday but still qualified as one of the sixteen teams in this tournament on the basis of accruing 4 points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal has sixteen players from the group that was 1W-1D-1L in last summer’s World Cup. They are led by Sadio Mane who stars for Liverpool in the English Premier League — but this is a defensive-minded group. The Lions of Teranga have registered six clean sheets in their last eight matches. Their defensive efforts are led by 6’5 Kalidou Koulibaly who anchors their backline. Senegal has allowed only one goal in this tournament. But they had scored only two goals in their first two matches before scoring three times in their last match against an overmatched Kenya side. With their top goalkeeper, Eduard Mendy, out with an injury, the Lions of Teranga will probably play even more cautiously as to not risk overwhelming their backup keeper. They will not face an explosive offensive attack from this Uganda team that has scored only three times in this tournament. The Cranes have been left scoreless in four of their last eight matches overall. This is the second straight African Cup for Uganda — and this is the first time they have reached the Knockout Stage since 1978. But this group is a bit distracted with the players refusing to train on Wednesday as a protest for unpaid bonuses they earned when they defeated the Democratic Republic of Congo in their opening match of this tournament. The Cranes best player may be their goalkeeper, Denis Onyango, who is one of the best keepers in the continent. Uganda has allowed only three goals in their three Afcon matches.
FINAL TAKE: Uganda has seen two combined goals scored in all three of their Group Stage matches — and their previous three matches before this tournament did not produce more than two combined goals. Senegal has only had one of their matches see more than two combined goals in this tournament — and only one of their four prior matches in 2019 generated more than two combined goals. I suspect Uganda fails to score in this match with the very high probability that no more than two combined goals being scored — making a push (at 2.0) the likely worst-case scenario. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Mexico v. Haiti OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (3W-1D-0L) survived their Quarterfinals match with Costa Rica on Saturday by winning via a shootout by a 5-4 margin after that game ended with a 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Haiti (4W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals earlier on Sunday with their 3-2 upset win over Canada. This match will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Haiti has fully embraced the role of the Cardiac Kids in this tournament with three of their four victories occurring after initializing allowing the first goal in that game. Les Grenadiers rallied from 1-0 deficits to defeat both Bermuda and Costa Rica by 2-1 scores in the Group Stage. Those results gave this team confidence even when they went into halftime trailing by a 2-0 score to Canada in the Quarterfinals. Haiti kept to their game plan on relying on counter-attacks — and they scored three times in the second half to steal that match from the Canadians. With an average age of just over 24-years of age, this is the youngest team in this tournament. But they are also surging with confidence. They are unlikely to secure a clean sheet in this match. However, this Haiti team will keep on attacking even if they fall behind. They have scored nine times in their four matches despite having an average possession of the ball for just 38.1% of the time in these contests. Counter-attacking sides have often been the Achilles’ heel of the Mexican national team. El Tri has surrendered at least one goal in three of their four matches in this event. Their nervy Quarterfinals match with an angry Costa Rica side motivated to redeem themselves from blowing their 1-0 lead against Haiti was the first time in eight matches under new manager Tito Martino where they did not score at least three goals. Mexico has scored fourteen goals in this tournament. They did not lack for pressure against Costa Rica as they had 22 shots attempts in that match.
FINAL TAKE: With the quick turnaround for this Semifinals match, legs may be tired for both sides. That should help the offenses for each respective team. I expect to see both teams score in the first 90 minutes of this match with at least one of these teams scoring twice over that span. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Argentina v. Brazil UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). THE SITUATION: Argentina (2W-1D-1L) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America with their 2-0 win over Venezuela on Friday. Brazil (2W-2D-0L) joined them in the Semifinals later that day with their 0-0 draw with Paraguay which they survived by winning the shootout by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Argentina is a work in progress as their national program rebuilds from their disappointing World Cup last summer where they lost in the Round of 16 to France. Manager Lionel Scaloni has tried to have his team play more pragmatically since that tournament. La Albiceleste is playing better defense as this event moves forward as they have registered two straight clean sheets. But they have only scored five goals in their four matches despite having Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero on the pitch. They will be playing a Brazil team that has yet to concede a goal in this tournament. But the Selecao has struggled in three of their four matches which have resulted in their fans jeering them for underachieving. Brazil has not scored a goal in two of their four matches against Venezuela in their second Group Stage match and then against Paraguay last Friday night. This team has often played with nervous energy in front of their home fans as the host nation. They are a bit undermanned with Richarlison unavailable for them in the midfield as he deals with a case of the mumps. The Selecao did not score a goal against Paraguay despite having a man advantage on the pitch after a red card gave them an 11 to 10 man advantage in the 58th minute of that match. Yet Brazil could not muster even one goal with the man advantage for those remaining 32 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are searching for confidence right now. Argentina has never won an international title in the Messi era. After losing in the 2014 World Cup Finals to Germany, La Albiceleste has been a national program in decline. Brazil lost to the Germans by a 7-1 score in the Semifinals of that World Cup in the Estadio Mineiro that will host this match. Since that match, the Brazilian fans have had little patience for their team. This shapes up to be a low scoring match where neither team takes too many chances in the hopes that their talent will make the difference late in the match. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
USA (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (5W-0D-0L) defeated France by a 2-1 score on Friday in that Quarterfinals showdown. England (5-0-0) reached the Semifinals on Thursday when they defeated Norway by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England entered that match with Norway with two significant doubts on their backline with Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury and Millie Bright ill with a virus that spread through the team. Both central defenders ended up playing and played important roles in the clean sheet. With five days of rest and recuperation since that match, both defenders should be closer to full strength for this showdown. The Three Lionesses defense has been outstanding in this tournament as they have conceded only one goal in their opening match against Scotland. England is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right back in the world of women’s soccer. She will be assigned to slow down Megan Rapinoe in this match — and she will have an advantage of being very familiar with the pitch with this being played in Lyon where she plays professionally. The Three Lionesses have scored eleven goals in their five matches which is a healthy amount — but after scoring only five goals in their three Group Stage matches, this team may be prepared to grind out a low scoring match with the Americans. Team USA has been spectacular on defense in this tournament as they have also only surrendered two goals. A question mark for this group entering this event regarded how Crystal Dunn would play at left back since this put the attacker out of position in playing on the backline. Dunn has steadily improved and rewarded manager Jill Ellis’ choice to put her on the pitch in the Starting XI as she played her best game in this World Cup. The Stars and Stripes did not allow a shot on target in the first half by the French. And they held Les Bleus to only one goal despite allowing them to have possession for 61% of that match. On paper, the USA looks like an offensive juggernaut with its whopping 22 goals in this tournament. But after their 13-0 win over Thailand to begin this tournament, they have scored only nine goals in their last four matches which is much closer to England’s more modest scoring efficiency. This US team has become more defensive oriented when Ellis moved Julie Ertz from the backline to the middle as a holding midfielder.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the She Believes Cup back on March 2nd which resulted in a 2-2 draw. I expect this rematch with the stakes much higher to be a defensive struggle with both teams being careful to not allow their opponents to seize scoring chances. 25* Women’s World Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Costa Rica v. Mexico OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Haiti last Monday. Mexico (3W-0D-0L) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play with their 3-2 victory over Martinique last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica will have an opportunity to redeem themselves from suffering an upset loss to an upstart Haiti side that rallied from a 1-0 halftime deficit to score twice in the second half. That comeback certainly raises questions about the quality of the Los Ticos backline. They also surrendered a goal to a weak Bermuda side in Group Stage play after earning a clean sheet against a disappointing Nicaragua team in their opening match. Costa Rica competed in last summer’s World Cup and gave up goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. Los Ticos should rebound with a strong effort in the role of the underdog with this opportunity to knock off Mexico who are the favorites to win this tournament. Costa Rica has scored seven times in their three games — and they have scored at least one goal in four of their last five matches in all competitions. Mexico showed some leakiness with their defense by surrendering two goals to a weak Martinique team. Issues on defense have already become an issue under new manager Tito Martino who came over after leading the Atlanta United to the MLS championship last year. The former Barcelona skipper has seen El Tri give up a goal in six of the seven matches he has coached for the national team. Mexico also gave up seven goals in their four matches in last summer’s World Cup where they also failed to register a clean sheet. There one shutout under Martino was in this tournament in their opening match against Cuba which was a team that saw their captain defect before the match started. But this El Tri group can score goals. They have a whopping thirteen goals in this event — and they have scored at least three goals in all seven matches under Martino (which have all been victories).
FINAL TAKE: This match has a 2-1 score (minimum) written all over it. Mexico will get their goals — and a feisty Costa Rica side should find the back of the net at least once. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Japan on Tuesday. Italy (3W-0D-1L) advanced to the Quarterfinals the same day with a 2-0 victory over China.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Netherlands scored in the 90th minute on a penalty kick conversion by Lieke Martens. But the Orange Lionesses were fortunate to survive that match with Japan controlling the pace of play for the last 20 minutes of the second half while blowing a number of good scoring opportunities. Japan had 12 shots in that match. The defense for the Netherlands appeared to be the weak link for this team when they began this tournament. While Stephanie van der Gragt is a strong and physical defender, the rest of the group in the backline is a young and inexperienced group that may not be as talented as some of the defenders in the Quarterfinals. The Dutch have surrendered a goal in three straight matches. And while they did enjoy a clean sheet against New Zealand to open this tournament, remember that the Kiwis were a defensive-oriented side that scored only three goals in their three Group Stage matches before being eliminated. The Netherlands route to reaching the Semifinals will likely require them scoring multiple goals — but they have the elite forward talent that can accomplish this task with Martens joined by Vivianne Miedema and Shanice van de Sandeen along with the 22-year old Lineth Beerensteyn who has found success coming off the bench. The Orange Lionesses have scored eight goals in this tournament. The Dutch also scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches in the 2017 Euro Championship — so high scoring games were the norm for them in winning that tournament. Italy has scored nine times in this event with multiple goals scored in three of their four matches. There was plenty of action in their match with China as Le Azzurre attempted 17 shots with the Chinese making 20 shot attempts. Italy pushes the pace of play in a free-flowing style. Both teams have scored at least one goal in six of their last nine matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this match to play out similar to the Netherlands’ contest with Japan where the match became level at 1-1 about midway before a team broke out to score a second goal. 25* Women’s World Cup FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
Chile v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). THE SITUATION: Colombia (3W-0D-0L) won all three of their Group Stage matches after they defeated Paraguay by a 1-0 score last Sunday. Chile (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colombia has scored four goals in their three victories — and they have not surrendered a goal in their three Group Stage matches. But after registering a clean sheet against the mess that remains the current Argentina national team (despite having Lionel Messi), Los Cafeteros have not faced offensive juggernauts in Qatar and then Paraguay on Sunday. Paraguay generated 10 shots while controlling possession for 54% of that match — so it is not as if Colombia has been stifling on the defensive end of the pitch. Los Cafeteros play their two fullbacks high which makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Their backline is considered their biggest vulnerability. This team also has the reputation of folding versus elite teams — and they continued to enable that perception with losses last summer to Japan and then England in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. Colombia is winless in their last nine matches against a Chile team that is the two-time defending champions of the Copa America. I suspect that Los Cafeteros will surrender at least one goal — but they should also score at least once in this match. Colombia plays a direct style with a possession-based attack. They are led by one of the best-attacking midfielders in the world in James Rodriguez who was a breakout star for them in Brazil (this locale this summer) in the 2014 World Cup. He is complemented by a veteran attacker in Radamel Falcao. They will be challenged by a Chile side that showed grit and determination in their 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday. La Roja seems to be an aging team with Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas, and Arturo Vidal all past their primes. But this group controlled possession for 59% of their match against Uruguay before losing to an Edinson Cavani goal in the 82nd. Chile had a healthy 12 shots in that match. They have scored six times in this tournament as their loss on Monday was their first match in their last nine where they did not score at least one goal. La Roja’s defense takes a hit tonight with one of their leaders on their backline, Gary Medal, a doubt with an injury.
FINAL TAKE: Chile has scored and conceded at least one goal in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. I see both teams scoring in this match in what should be full of drama. Colombia wants to grab the torch from La Roja — but this proud Chile side will be very difficult to dethrone as the two-time reigning Copa America champions. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
USA (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Spain on Monday. France (4-0-0) made it to the Quarterfinals the day before with their 2-1 victory over Brazil that required the extra 30 minutes of time to resolve a 1-1 score after 90 minutes.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have potent offenses that tend to overwhelm lesser opponents. The question in handicapping this match is to discern whether or not the respective managers will continue to play aggressively or instead embrace more defensive tactics in this showdown that might very well determine the winner of this tournament. France manager Corinne Diacre tends to have her team play more cautiously when facing elite competition. A 1-0 win over Australia in April along with a 2-0 win over the Matildas last October and a 1-0 loss to Germany on February 28th of this year is evidence of this tactic. And after their opening 4-0 win over the Korea Republic, Les Bleus have scored only five combined goals (in 285 minutes of play). France managed only three shots on goal against Brazil on Sunday as their frontline struggled against the physical Brazilian backline. Les Bleus forwards and midfielders have too often appeared too scripted while lacking the cohesion of clicking together in more creative opportunities. That is not a good sign when facing an American team that has registered 18 clean sheets in their last 23 matches. Team USA saw their clean sheet streak of seven matches snapped on Monday against Spain. Perhaps not coincidentally, manager Jill Ellis did not start Lindsey Horan in that match out of fear that she would be whistled with a second yellow card which would suspend her for this showdown. Getting Horan back helps the US team on both ends of the pitch — but don’t underestimate her defensive capabilities particularly in tackling opposing players move the ball up the pitch. A key question for Ellis is what her starting midfield will be — particularly, whether or not she will start holding midfielder, Julie Ertz. I think she does as the Stars and Stripes improved significantly when Ertz was converted from the backline to the midfield to improve the defensive presence of this team — and it helps explain the clean sheet run the team is on. Questions have developed for the USWNT on offense after they managed only two shots on net against Spain. It is not a good sign that both their goals scored were from penalty kicks. Alex Morgan has been scoreless in her last three games as she seems to be slowed by nagging injuries. Megan Rapinoe is out of form on the pitch despite her two penalty kick goals on Monday. Spain provided a blueprint as to how to slow down the American attack: cut off the service to forwards, press the sometimes shaky US backline, and play rough with their attackers once they find a dangerous scoring position. With central defenders Wendie Renard and Griddle Mbock Bathy, Les Bleus have the prototype physical defenders that can make things difficult for the American attackers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times since March of 2017. The USA has scored only two goals in those three matches. This past success on defense will likely compel Diacre to have her team play cautiously with the advantage of playing this match on home soil in Paris. And I think Ellis will not have her squad push the agenda too hard precisely because this is a true road contest with the hopes that the skill and experience of her players will eventually make the difference. Expect no more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-19 |
United States v. Panama OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). THE SITUATION: The USMNT (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup with their 6-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago last Saturday. Panama (2-0-0) joined them in the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 4-2 victory over Guyana on Saturday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The US Men’s National Team enjoyed their best effort under new manager Gregg Berhalter in this match which offered the team a small modicum of revenge against a Trinidad and Tobago team that eliminated them from qualifying for the 2018 World Cup back in November of 2017. Getting players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie playing together for an extended period of time is certainly helping to build cohesion for this team. The offensive attack is looking up with the Stars and Stripes having scored ten goals in their two matches. And Berhalter deserves credit for his halftime adjustments considering that eight of these ten goals have been scored after halftime. Berhalter has installed a new system for the American national team that emphasizes possession along with counter pressing to retake control of the ball. This is an approach that can help produce blowout wins against overmatched foes (like Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana who were their first two opponents). The USA has generated a whopping 39 steals so far in this tournament. But defense remains an issue for this team despite them pony allowing 13 shots in their first two matches. Team USA struggled on defense in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela and a 1-0 loss to Jamaica in their last final two friendlies before this tournament. The Stars and Stripes lack quality center defenders — and Michael Bradley is their only midfielder with quality defensive skills (with Mckenzie who stars as a holding midfielder playing in Bundesliga being asked to play up on the pitch by Berhalter). Don’t be surprised if Panama finds plenty of scoring opportunities when they beat the American counter-press. Los Canaleros are also happy to counter-attack to regain possession as well — they have 34 steals in their first two matches in this tournament. Panama has scored six times in their two matches after taking 19 shots against Guyana with eight of them on target. The Red Wave are entering a new generation this year after seeing the retirement of longtime leaders in Blas Perez and Felipe Baloy. But this group will not be intimidated by playing the United States since they were actually in Russia last summer playing soccer in the World Cup while the Americans watched on television. Panama lost all three of their World Cup matches but they scored two goals while surrendering eleven goals with all three of their matches seeing at least three combined goals scored. Los Canaleros are 6W-4D-2L in their last twelve matches in the Gold Cup — and they have displayed prowess on the offensive side of the pitch in those matches by scoring 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 27th in a friendly where the United States won by a 3-0 score. First place in Group D is at stake with a match with Curacao in the Quarterfinals — and that is a more attractive opening match in the Knockout Stage than the loser’s match in the Quarterfinals with Jamaica. Both teams should be playing to win — expect a higher scoring match between two teams that push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Australia (W) v. Norway (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). THE SITUATION: Norway (2-0-1) finished with six points in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over South Korea on Monday. Australia (2-0-1) also punched their ticket into the Knockout Stage with a decisive 4-1 victory over Jamaica on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Sam Kerr scored four times on Tuesday against the Reggae Girlz to propel the Matildas to eight goals scored in their three matches which is the second most for any team in this tournament. Australia is a high-scoring team with their pressing style under manager Ante Milicic. But this high-risk/high-reward approach makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks especially when considering that their backline has some deficiencies. The Matildas have surrendered five goals in their three Group State matches. This style also tends to enable wild contests. Australia blew a 1-0 lead in their opening match against Italy that resulted in a 2-1 loss — but their aggressive tactics were exactly what they needed against Brazil as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat them by a 3-2 score. With talents like Kerr and Caitlin Foord up top, it makes sense for the Matildas to deploy this approach. But in a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands and a 5-3 loss to the United States in the lead up to this tournament, this strategy has its vulnerabilities. This Norway team is very good despite being without their best player, Ada Hegerberg, who is boycotting participation with the national team given their unequal treatment of women’s athletics. The Grass Hoppers have scored five goals in this tournament which a 2-1 loss to the host nation, France, who are one of the top favorites to lift the championship trophy. Norway still has quality players — led by Caroline Graham Hansen who is expected to play this afternoon after suffering a knock in that match with South Korea this week. The Grass Hoppers scored 22 goals in their eight qualifying matches for this World Cup. As one of the traditional European powers that have won a World Cup back in 1995, they have a balanced and talented group of players who should find plenty of scoring opportunities in a counter-attack against the aggressive tactics of Australia. But I am concerned about their defense after allowing South Korea to attempt 22 shots against them on Tuesday.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year in the Algarve Cup with Australia pulling out a 4-3 shootout. While seven combined goals may be too much to expect in this contest, I do expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Curacao v. Honduras UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). THE SITUATION: Curacao (0-0-1) lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 1-0 loss to El Salvador on Monday. Honduras (0-0-1) also lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 3-2 loss to Jamaica on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at Houston’s BBVA Compass Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Curacao did not display much energy on the offensive end of the pitch against El Salvador. They managed only three shots in that contest as they never tested the Salvador goalkeeper, Henry Hernandez. This is just the second Gold Cup ever for this island colony of the Netherlands. This team failed to score a goal in their three Group Stage matches in the 2017 Gold Cup. But this team is not necessarily pushovers either with the majority of the roster playing in the professional leagues of the Netherlands. In their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifiers, Curacao allowed only two goals while producing three clean sheets. Honduras has only scored four goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Los Catrachos did not score a goal in their four Gold Cup matches in 2017. But they only allowed five goals in those four matches which culminated in a narrow 1-0 loss in the Quarterfinals to Mexico. The three goals they allowed against Jamaica needs to be taken with some context as the Reggae Boyz were playing on their home pitch in Kington in National Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: Honduras was able to make the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with just one point given their draw with Canada which ended in a scoreless draw — so do not underestimate the value these teams put in a nil-nil result. With the Total set at 2.5, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group C Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-19 |
USA (W) v. Sweden (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). THE SITUATION: The United States (2-0-0) has won their first two matches in this World Cup with their 3-0 win over Chile last Saturday. Sweden (2-0-0) also has six points with two victories in their first two games with their 5-1 win over Thailand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be very tempting for bettors to take the Over after Team USA racked up thirteen goals in their opening victory against Thailand. This Stars and Stripes team is loaded with scoring talent — and their midfielders and fullbacks like to play up the pitch. But a draw is enough of a result for the USA to win first place in Group F which is their immediate goal. This US team also needs to build skill and cohesion in their backline with two converted attackers being inserted into those two fullback positions by manager Jill Ellis. This contest against a good Swedish team is an opportunity to work on technical tactics. This team has dominated both their opponents as they have surrounded only three combined shots with neither opponent controlling possession for more than 30% of the contest. Team USA has not allowed a goal in their last six matches. They will face a Sweden team that is very familiar with their schemes and tactics. This will be the fourth meeting between these two national teams in the last five major international tournaments. The Blue and Yellow were triumphant in the last meeting between these two teams where the Swedes pulled the big upset in the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics. Sweden’s conservative tactics where they play with a high back-line on the pitch while searching for opportunities to counter-attack is the anti-American scheme given their Stars and Stripes typical aggressiveness. The Blagurt have veterans in their middle field and a defensive line who have played in many of those matches with the Americans. Sweden also has an elite goalkeeper in Hedvi Lindhal playing in perhaps her last World Cup at 36-years old. Sweden has scored seven times in this tournament which is a bit of an aberration for this team. They scored only four goals in their four matches in the 2017 Euro Championship which ended in a disappointing loss in the Quarterfinals to the Netherlands. They scored just five times in their four matches in the 2015 World Cup where they lost in the Round of 16. They entered this tournament with just four goals in their previous four matches. But they surrendered a mere one goal in those final four matches — and they gave up only two goals in their eight World Cup Qualifying matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a tactical contest — especially with the stakes relatively low since both teams have clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. In the last five meetings between these two sides since 2013, all five matches saw no more than two combined goals scored. It was a nil-nil draw when these two teams faced off in the Group Stage of the 2015 World Cup. 25* Women’s World Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-19 |
New Zealand (W) v. Cameroon (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). THE SITUATION: Cameroon (0-0-2) has lost their two World Cup contests after suffering a 3-1 setback to the Netherlands last Saturday. New Zealand (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this tournament after their 2-0 loss to Canada on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has only scored one goal in their two matches after they lost to Canada by a 1-0 score. The Indomitable Lions are a team on the rise with 12 players back from the group that competed in the 2015 World Cup. This team’s defense can be shaky on the defensive end of the pitch — but allowing three goals to a potent Netherlands attack is not terribly surprising. Manager Alain Djeumfa has had his team embrace defensive tactics to compensate for this potential deficiency while banking on the counterattacking skills of speedy forwards like Gabrielle Onguene and Galla Enganamouit. But this approach has contributed to a toothless attack for the Indomitable Lions. They did not generate a shot on target in their opening match against Canada. And while their offensive activity improved against the Netherlands, they managed only 11 shots with just four on target. Controlling possession has been an issue as they had the ball for just 39% of their match with the Dutch after controlling possession in just 26% of their match against Canada. New Zealand may play on their front foot in this match like they often do when facing the inferior competition of the Oceania Football Confederation. The Football Ferns play solid defense on the grandest of international stages — and that should not go away in this contest. New Zealand has allowed only three goals against the Netherlands and Canada who enter this third match with two wins apiece. But the Kiwis have yet to score in this event. They did not manage a shot on target against Canada while managing just three shots on target against the Dutch. New Zealand has only generated seven total shots in their two matches. In the 2015 World Cup, the Football Ferns scored only twice in their three matches but only surrendered three goals. Cameroon made it to the Knockout Stage in 2015 on the strength of a 6-0 win over an overmatched Ecuador side — but it is their 1-0 loss to China in the Round of 16 that will likely be a harbinger as to how this match will be played out.
FINAL TAKE: One side earning a clean sheet in this match is pretty high when considering that New Zealand has seen at least one side go scoreless in nine of their last ten matches. Eight of the last ten matches played by the Kiwis have seen less than three combined goals scored. Both teams need a victory — and then help with goal differential — to advance to the Knockout Stage. However, since a draw helps neither side — I expect the first team to score in this match will then park the bus in back to do everything they can to preserve that lead. 25* World Cup Group E Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-19 |
Australia (W) v. Jamaica (W) OVER 4.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). THE SITUATION: Australia (1-0-1) earned their three points last Thursday with a 3-2 victory over Brazil. Jamaica (0-0-2) lost their second straight match in the World Cup by losing to Italy by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia found themselves in dire straits as they trailed the Brazilians by a 2-0 score — and that came after suffering a 2-1 upset loss to Italy in their opening match. But the Matildas scored a late goal in extra time of the first half to get on the board and they completed their three-goal rally by scoring twice in the second half to stun the Selecao. That comeback victory should trigger confidence in this Australian team that limped into the World Cup with two straight losses. Expectations have never been higher for this Matildas team that has reached the Quarterfinals in the last three World Cups as well as the 2016 Olympics. This is probably the best roster this national team has ever assembled. But a 5-3 loss to the USA on May 3rd followed by a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands on June 1st left some questions on the table for this group. Australia is loaded with scoring firepower led by their 25-year old captain, Sam Kerr, who is one of the best goal scorers in the world. New manager Ante Milicic (who took over amidst scandal from the previous dirtbag manager of the Matildas) implemented a high-risk/high-reward pressing system a la the schemes used by Liverpool and Manchester City in the English Premier League. The goal is to create more scoring opportunities to take better advantage of their elite talent of Kerr and other players like forward Caitlin Foord. It worked for a bit against the US as those tactics created a 2-1 lead in that April friendly match. But the risk of pushing forward on the attack with left and right backs, Steph Catley and Ellie Carpenter, jetting up the pitch to support their scoring opportunities is that they become very vulnerable to counter attacks. Team USA burned them by rallying to score three goals to win that match before the Dutch scored three more goals against them in that last friendly. Australia has scored and conceded four goals in their first two World Cup matches. With three points and tied with Brazil for second place in Group C play, goal differential may play a critical role as a tie-breaker. That means that the Matildas are highly likely to keep their foot on the proverbial accelerator in this match as they look to pile on the goals. But this strategy risks them conceding goals to the Reggae Girlz. Frankly, this Jamaica team is happy to be competing at this event after seeing their program dormant from 2008 to 2014. The daughter of Bob Marley, Cedella Marley, infused the national team with money to jumpstart the women’s team who then qualified for this World Cup with their third place finish in last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifier. The Reggae Girlz are young and inexperienced with seven of their players under the age of 22. But they are fast and happy to take their chances on the counter-attack. They have conceded eight goals in their two matches — but they have dynamic goal scorers led by Khadijah “Bunny” Shaw. The former Tennessee Volunteer has 31 goals in 23 caps for the national team and is an imposing presence on the pitch with her 5’11 frame. Jamaica had scored nine goals in their last four friendlies before this tournament — but they also allowed seven goals in those four matches.
FINAL TAKE: Australia should win this match easily as they press to score as many goals as they can to help their positioning. Winning Group C remains possible if Brazil defeats an undefeated Italian team — but they will need to plenty of goals to seize the goal differential tie-breaker. Jamaica is leaky on their back end — but I will not be surprised if they leave this match relatively happy by scoring their first ever goal in World Cup competition. 25* Women’s World Cup Group C Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-19 |
Nicaragua v. Costa Rica UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (0-0-0) the first CONCACAF Gold Cup match ever to be played on their home soil. Los Ticos finished 0-1-2 in their three Group Stage matches in last summer’s World Cup. Costa Rica reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup before losing to the USMNT. Nicaragua (0-0-0) plays in their first international tournament sine that 2017 Gold Cup where they lost all three of their matches in Group Stage play.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they are just 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Getting too cute now would be a disaster for Los Ticos against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — especially when playing at home. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard. Nicaragua is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. The Pinoleros privilege defensive tactics with the hope that their captain, Juan Barrera, can find scoring opportunities in the counter-attack. Nicaragua has scored only one goal in their six matches ever played in Gold Cup competitions. And in the twelve previous meetings between these two nations, the Pinoleros have scored only eight times. All three of their matches in the 2017 Gold Cup did not see more than three combined goals scored. In their last five matches, Nicaragua has scored only four times with two of those goals occurring in a 2-2 draw with Bolivia back on March 3rd in a friendly.
FINAL TAKE: Costa Rica will not have their veteran superstar goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, this summer with his status with Real Madrid up in the air. Los Ticos did not have Navas in the 2017 Gold Cup either but that did not slow this side down against North American competition. A clean sheet is highly likely for Costa Rica tonight — but they are not likely to score more than two goals (and certainly not three goals which would Push the most common Total of 3). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-19 |
Norway (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). THE SITUATION: Norway (1-0-0) won their opening match of the 2019 Women’s World Cup with a dominant 3-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. France (1-0-0) began this tournament as the host nation last Friday with a 4-0 victory over South Korea.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With both sides securing sizable victories in their opening match, the significance of this match lightens a bit since advancement to the Round of 16 Knockout Stage should be in pretty good shape. Given that, both teams may play a bit more cautiously since a big loss hurts their goal differential which could become an issue if they either team would not secure at least the one point with a draw in their final Group Stage match. France is more a reserved side than the group that lost in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 World Cup in Canada. Roster turnover explains most of that with a previous generation of goal scorers retiring. Les Blues are one of the top favorites to win this event not only because they are the host nation but because their national squad is dominated by the French professional club in Lyon that is — by far — the best women’s professional team in the world. But Lyon’s best attackers play for other national teams. However, the core group of the French defense are Lyon starters in Wendie Renard, Griddle MBock Bathy, and Amel Majri along with their keeper, Sarah Bouhaddi. National teams that have a cluster of starters who play together on their national team gives them an edge in cohesion — so this should be a very tight defensive group this summer. Renard scored twice in their win over South Korea — but don’t expect a defender to score goals on a regular basis for this team. France tends to play lower scoring matches against the better teams in the world. Their last loss was in a friendly to Germany by a 1-0 score back on February 28th. They defeated Australia by a 2-0 score on October 5th while also beating 1-0 win over Canada on April 9th. Les Bleus did lose to Team USA by a 3-1 score on January 9th in a friendly — but that match may have sent a message to manager Corinne Diacre. Even playing on their home soil, the French probably cannot get into a shootout with the Americans. On the heels of the Stars and Stripes 13-0 win over Thailand yesterday, this may be a match where Diacre wants her side to focus on defensive tactics and counter-attacks. In their 2015 World Cup run where they lost on the Quarterfinals to England via Penalty Kicks after a 1-1 score in extra time, France had their clean sheets and three of their five matches result on less than three combined goals (after squashes against Mexico and South Korea). Norway manager Martin Sjogren has already indicated that she will have her side play more cautiously in this contest as they look to neutralize a French attack and look to score on counters. The Grasshoppers are without their best attacker — and probably the best female player in the world — in Ada Hegerberg — who is boycotting her participation with her national team that continues to treat women’s soccer with second class status as compared to their middling men’s side. Norway had three goals against a Nigeria team that is shaky on defense — but that final goal was an Own Goal by the African Cup champs. Norway remains a solid team without Hegerberg who can still make a deep run in the Knockout Stage if they develop confidence and cohesion. They also have cohesion in their backline with Chelsea teammates Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir — and they are joined by a potential superstar in Graham Hansen who has something to prove after a knee injury kept her out of the 2015 World Cup. Even a 1-0 loss to Les Bleus could be a psychological victory for the Grasshoppers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have not seen more than two combined goals scored in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Expect a low scoring match — especially given the situation they have given the early events of this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-19 |
Barcelona FC v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). THE S|TUATION: Barcelona won the first leg of the two-leg Champions League Semifinals with a 3-0 win over Liverpool last Wednesday. The second-leg match moves to Liverpool’s home field at Anfield Stadium. The Reds must at least three goals to stay alive to advance to the Finals. A 3-0 Liverpool victory in regulation time forces two fifteen minute extra periods — and if things are still tied after that, then the match (and Champions League Finalist) will be decided by a shootout. With the first tie-breaker being goals scored on the road, Barcelona advances to the Finals even with a 4-1 loss since their one goal scored on the road is more than Liverpool’s zero goals scored last week. Liverpool advances to the Finals with a victory by at least four goals in regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool needs to score at least three goals to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. The problem for manager Jurgen Klopp is that he will be without two of his top strikers. Roberto Firmino has been dealing with a groin injury — and while he was a substitute in last Wednesday’s first-leg, he did not play in the Reds English Premier League match over the weekend. He does not fit to play this afternoon. Mohamed Salah also will be out this afternoon after receiving a knock in their Saturday match against Newcastle United which has him in the concussion protocol. Liverpool will push forward — they still have a prolific goal scorer in Sadio Mane while also possessing a group of talented defensemen who are comfortable playing up on the pitch to score goals. Look for Klopp to deploy the high-press system he relied on last season. This approach creates scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but it also leaves his defense vulnerable when these tactics fail. Klopp dialed back this approach this season to make the Reds more defensive in their tactics — but this situation calls for uber-aggressiveness. Barcelona is a pragmatic side this season — but they will not be resting on their laurels in this contest. Manager Ernesto Valverde has indicated he wants his team playing aggressively as well — if and when they score, it forces Liverpool to have to score five goals to win this match given the tie-breaker situation. Furthermore, with the Catalans featuring Lionel Messi on the pitch, he is capable of scoring from anywhere at any time.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to expect the Reds to generate a clean sheet against Messi and this Barcelona side. I do think an aggressive Liverpool scores at least twice in this rematch (even without Salah and Firmino). 25* Champions League Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-19 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (28-7-1) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 5-0 victory at home over Huddersfield in their last EPL match last Friday. Newcastle United (11-9-6) comes off a 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion in their last match last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are precarious times for Liverpool as they followed up their match with Huddersfield with the first leg of their Champions League Semifinals showdown with Barcelona which ended in a 3-0 loss. The Reds host the second leg of that contest midweek — so manager Jurgen Klopp will be keeping one eye with that impending rematch with his need to conserve the energy of his key players. Klopp does not need a blowout victory. However, Liverpool absolutely must generate the three points with a victory in this match to keep up their championship aspirations in the EPL as they are one point behind Manchester City. Things could get nervy for this team to register a goal. Before facing the bottom-feeder team in the league in Huddersfield who are already mathematically eliminated from not being relegated, the Reds had scored more than two goals just twice in their last five EPL matches. Liverpool’s offensive proficiency has been particularly slowed down when they are playing on the road away from Anfield. In their last nine EPL matches on the road, the Reds have scored more than two goals only once. Liverpool has still enjoyed great success because they have developed into an outstanding defensive team under Klopp. The acquisition of defenseman Virgil Van Dijk in last year’s winter transfer window has certainly played a huge role in their defensive transformation as he perhaps been the Most Valuable Player in the EPL. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest number in the league. Liverpool has allowed only ten goals in their 18 EPL matches on the road. And in their thirteen road games against the non-Big Six EPL sides, the Reds have surrendered a mere 5 goals. But also keep in mind that Liverpool has scored only 26 goals in those thirteen matches for flat 2.0 Goals-Per-Game average. Newcastle is a difficult opponent who plays a compact system that can be difficult to penetrate. The Magpies are happy to grind out low-scoring matches where they find scoring opportunities in cautious counter-attacking moments. Newcastle is in good form right now — they are 2-1-0 in their last three matches where they have allowed only two goals. In their last six matches on their home field at St. James Park, the Magpies have allowed only five goals — and they have conceded just 22 goals in their eighteen home matches this season. Newcastle has scored 22 goals in those eighteen home matches as well. Digging deeper, the Magpies have scored only nine goals in their eleven matches against one of the Big Six teams in the EPL — and they have conceded only nine goals in their five home matches against one of those Top Six EPL sides this season.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle usually plays Liverpool tough — they have only lost once in their last seven home matches against the Reds. Liverpool will be cautious in this contest and will be very content with a 1-0 victory. While the Magpies are not likely to score a goal, the Reds are not likely to find the back of the net more than twice. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Huddersfield Town v. Liverpool UNDER 4 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (3-5-27) limps into this match coming off a 2-1 loss to Watford last Saturday. Liverpool (27-7-1) comes off a 2-1 win at Cardiff City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Huddersfield is not likely to score a goal in this match. The Terriers have scored the fewest goals in the league at 20 — and that number drops to just 11 goals in their 17 matches on the road. Even worse, Huddersfield has scored only three times in their 10 matches against one of the Big Six franchises this season. The Terriers are cemented to be relegated to the Champions League — so this match is all about pride. Don’t be surprised if they park the proverbial bus in their back end to limit the Reds damage. On the plus side, the 29 goals they have surrendered against Big Six competition in ten matches results in less than 3.0 Goals Allowed per match. Yet this remains a side that has not scored a goal in seven of their last English Premier League matches on the road. And while they have allowed 69 goals this season with 39 of these goals being on the road — the Expected Goals metric indicates that they should have allowed just 60.78 goals overall this season along with only 32.00 goals allowed when playing on the road. Liverpool needs every point possible in their fight for first place with Manchester City. But the Reds will be without their top forward in Roberto Firminho who meager Jurgen Klopp has announced will not play today because of a muscle injury. While Liverpool is still loaded with goal scorers led by midfielders Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, the absence of Firminho hurts their cohesion up top. As it is, the Reds have not scored more than three goals in five straight EPL matches. But Liverpool has held their last two EPL opponents scoreless. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest mark in the league. In twelve home matches against the non-Big Six sides this season, Liverpool has scored a solid but not overwhelming 36 goals — while allowing just 7 goals in those matches.
FINAL TAKE: This match looks destined to be 3-0. The Reds should average their three goals in these situations — but it will be very difficult for Huddersfield to find the back of the net once. With the Total set at 4.0, we have a reasonable cushion. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-19 |
Arsenal v. Watford UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (19-6-7) enters this English Premier League matching looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at Everton last Saturday. Watford (13-7-12) returns to EPL action where their last match was back on April 2nd when they defeated Fulham by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has scored only five goals in their last four matches — but they have surrendered only two goals over that span. None of those last four matches saw more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have slowed down on offense in large measure to do the slump of their striker, Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. First-year manager Unai Emery is no longer playing Aubemeyang consistently despite him being the team’s leading scorer with 17 goals. When Emery pairs Aubemeyang with Alexandre Lacazette at forward, Arsenal becomes one of the most dynamic scoring sides in the EPL. But Emery does not like how that pairing impacts how his team plays defensively — and it has been Aubemeyang who has been the odd man out. The Gunners have scored 65 goals this season — but the deeper metrics suggests they have been fortunate to generate that much scoring as their Expected Goals drops to 54.21 this year. Arsenal has scored only 26 goals on the road this year in their 15 matches for a meager 1.73 Goals-Per-Game average — but their Expected Goals on the road drops to just 20. On the positive side of the ledger, the Gunners have allowed 28 goals on the road but the Expected Goals allowed drops to 25.02. Arsenal simply does not create a ton of scoring chances. The Gunners rank 12th in the EPL by scoring 11.9 shots per game — and that number drops to 10.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is just 13th in the league. Watford plays a grinding and physical style of play that tends to give Arsenal some trouble. The Hornets have only allowed two goals in their last five matches at home. Overall, Watford has surrendered just 20 goals in their 15 home matches. But the Hornets have scored only 23 times at home this year — and their Expected Goals at home drops to just 19.42. Watford plays conservatively on the pitch — they are just 16th in the EPL by averaging only 11.2 shots per game. The Hornets are also 7th in the league by only allowing 12.7 shots per game. Watford has scored only eight times in their ten matches against the Big Six teams in the EPL. At home, the Hornets have scored only five goals in their five home matches against the Big Six.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are playing lower scoring games as of late — particularly when Watford is playing at home where just 10 combined goals have been scored in their last five home matches. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-19 |
West Ham United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). THE SITUATION: West Ham (10-6-11) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 3-1 win over Fulham last Friday. Manchester City (21-2-4) returns to EPL action after they blasted Chelsea by a 6-0 score back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is playing with plenty of momentum right now as they nip at the heels of Liverpool at the top of the EPL table. The Citizens have scored 17 goals over their last five EPL matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last two matches which were against two Power-Six clubs in Chelsea and Arsenal. Man City has scored at least three goals in four of their last five games as well as five of their last seven matches. Furthermore, they have seen at least four combined goals scored in nine of their last ten matches when playing at home. They lead in the EPL in goals scored and goals scored at home in Etihad Stadium. The Citizens also lead the league in average shots on goal with 17.1 per games — and they also lead the EPL with 20.4 shots per game when playing at home. With Gabriel Jesus dealing with an injury, it looks to be a certainty that manager Pep Guardiola will be playing his best attacker, Sergio Aguero, who will be looking to secure his third straight hat trick when playing on his home pitch. It should be another big scoring day for Man City who is averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game in their home ten home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. West Ham does surrender plenty of shot attempts: they allow 13.3 shots per game which is the seventh most in the league — and that number rises to 16.2 shots allowed per game which is sixth worst in the EPL. The Hammers have played only two matches on the road against Power-Six sides where they allowed seven combined goals. The deeper metrics suggest that West Ham has been fairly fortunate in the goals they have allowed. The Hammers have surrendered 40 goals this season but the Expected Goals allowed metric raises that number to 43.05. Furthermore, West Ham has allowed 20 goals this season when playing on the road — but the Expected Goals allowed when playing on the road rises to 23.50. This will be manager Manuel Pellegrini’s first trip back to the Etihad after he was sacked as the Man City manager in 2016. Pellegrini embraces an aggressive style — he wants his team to attack rather than park the bus in the back. Once Man City takes the lead, the goals should keep coming with the Hammers having a decent chance of securing one of the goals to reach our target of four combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Man City is clicking on all cylinders right now. If they do not score the four goals themselves in this contest, there is a good chance that West Ham will add goal themselves to the total. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Crystal Palace v. Leicester UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (7-6-13) returns to the pitch after a 1-1 draw with West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on February 9th. Leicester City (9-5-12) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Tottenham back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Crystal Palace is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions — and they are getting it done with strong defensive play. The Eagles have scored only four goals in their last three EPL contests — but they have surrendered just two goals in those contests. Crystal Palace goes on the road where they are 4-2-7 this season while scoring 18 goals and surrendering 22 goals. But the deeper metrics indicate they should be playing lower scoring games when playing in hostile territory. Their Expected Goals scored number drops significantly to just 13.72 goals in those thirteen contests — and their Expected Goals allowed also drops to 18.66. Looking closer, a disproportionate number of the goals being scored when the Eagles are on the road are in matches versus the Power Six clubs. In their nine matches on the road against non-Power Six sides, Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals while allowing only 13 goals which is right on track for an Under in this contest. Leicester City is winless in their last five EPL matches. They are struggling to find the back of the net as they have scored only two goals over their last three matches. Manager Claude Puel chose not to start his best attacker, Jamie Vardy, in that last match against the Spurs. Vardy did come on as a substitute and scored the Foxes loan goal — but it is not clear if he is in the doghouse or if Puel is simply dissatisfied with his effort. Leicester City returns home where they are 4-2-6 this season. They have only scored 13 goals in their last twelve home matches which the fourth lowest in the EPL. But the Foxes have allowed only 13 goals at home as well so they are used to playing tight, low-scoring matches on their pitch. In their last three home contests, Leicester City has scored only one goal while surrendering four. Puel has his team playing a defensive-oriented strategy. In their seventeen matches against non-Power Six sides, the Foxes have allowed only 19 goals. Goals are even harder to come by when Leicester City is hosting a non-Power Six team. In those fourteen matches, the Foxes have scored 13 goals and allowed 13 goals to produce an average that is below 2.0 combined goals per game. Furthermore, in their last five home matches against non-Power Six sides, Leicester City has scored 5 times while allowing only 4 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams do a good job of limiting their opponents shot opportunities. Crystal Palace is 7th in the EPL by allowing 12.5 shots per game. Leicester City is 5th in the league by allowing only 11.6 shots per game — and that number drops to just 10 shots per game when they are playing at home at King Power Stadium which is the 4th best mark in the English Premier League. 25* EPL Saturday NBC-TV O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Burnley v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
Our 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Burnley (6-6-13) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw to Southampton last Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (7-6-12) comes off a 0-0 draw at home to Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Burnley is playing better soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions. The Clarets find themselves 2 points above the relegation zone — so scrapping out at least a point this afternoon would be huge for them. Burnley’s success as of late has come from better goal production — they have found the back of the net 10 times in their last six matches. Stopping the opposition has been the biggest problem for this team as they have surrendered 46 goals in English Premier League play which is the second most of all twenty teams. The Clarets allow their opponents to attempt 18 shots per game — and that number rises to 20.2 shots allowed per game when playing on the road. Both those numbers are the worst in the EPL. Burnley has scored 11 times on the road while conceding 24 goals — and the analytics indicate that these should be higher scoring games with their Expected Goals scored on the road being at 12.14 and the Expected Goals they should have allowed being at 26.17. Don’t be surprised if Chris Wood scores a goal in this match as he registered a goal five times in his last eight matches with Brighton. The Seagulls have lost three of their last five matches in EPL play but they do enter this match with confidence after they defeated West Brom on Wednesday in FA Cup action by a 3-1 score. Manager Chris Hughton rested most of his usual starters in that match so his group should be rested and ready for this showdown. Brighton has only conceded 12 goals when playing at home this season — but the metrics suggest that has been a rather fortunate occurrence since their Expected Goals allowed rests over 25% higher at 16.23. The Seagulls allow 15.4 shots per game which is the second most in the EPL. Brighton is a tough team to beat when playing at home against one of the non-Power Six teams in the league. The Seagulls are 4-3-0 in those seven matches while scoring 9 times for a 2.25 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These are the bottom two teams in the league in shots attempted by their opponents. With this being a winnable match for both teams, I expect both sides to be very aggressive in their search for 3 points with a victory. I think both teams score in this contest — with the issue being whether we can see a third goal to secure our winning ticket (versus a push at 2.0). 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Chelsea v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (14-5-4) looks to rebound from a 2-0 shutout loss on the road at Arsenal in their last English Premier League match back on January 19th. Bournemouth (9-3-11) returns to EPL play after the break going off a 2-0 win over West Ham on January 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea needed help with their attack so they made a big splash in the January transfer window by adding Gonzalo Higuain to be their striker. Frankly, I am not bullish on the veteran forward who seemed past his prime this summer as part of the vast Argentina disappointment at the World Cup. Higuain thrived when playing for manager Maurizio Sarri at Napoli — but that was back for the 2015-16 season. However, the best benefit of getting Higuain on the pitch is it frees up for their best player, Eden Hazard, to go back to his preferred space out wide rather than playing the traditional striker role. Higuain has already made his debut with the Blues last week in a 3-0 victory over Sheffield in FA Cup action which is encouraging regarding this team finding their offensive attack again. Chelsea has seen 29 combined goals scored in their eleven EPL matches on the road this season. They have scored 40 goals this season but 31 of these have come against the non-power six teams in the league. In those seventeen matches against the bottom-fourteen sides in the EPL, the Blues have seen 40 combined goals scored. In their last six road matches in the EPL against non-power six teams, Chelsea has seen at least three combined goals scored in five of those contests. The Blues will put plenty of pressure on the Cherries in this match. They are second in the league by averaging 15.7 shots per game — and they lead the EPL by averaging 15 shots per game when playing on the road in executing Sarri’s aggressive system. Bournemouth may not have their top striker in Callum Wilson who is dealing with hamstring and knee injuries after limping off the pitch in their win over West Ham — he was downgraded to doubtful yesterday for this match. But the Cherries have a capable second striker in Joshua King so his loss does not derail their offensive attack. Bournemouth has scored 21 times in their twelve matches at home this season — so they should find the back of the net at least once in this contest. However, the defense is the problem for this team that has allowed the fourth most goals in the EPL this year. The Cherries allow the third most shots (12.85) when playing at home this season — so this match with Chelsea will likely see them surrender plenty of shot attempts. Bournemouth typically gets exposed when playing one of the traditional top-six teams in the league (Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea). They have allowed 22 goals in their seven matches against the power-six teams which translate into over 3.0 goals-per-game surrendered. The Cherries have seen 10 combined goals scored in their three matches at home against power-six teams with the visitor scoring 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: With Chelsea being one of the most active teams in the league and Bournemouth vulnerable to these teams, expect a higher-scoring contest this afternoon. 25* EPL Television Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Leicester v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (6-3-5) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over Watford on Saturday. Fulham (2-2-10) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Chelsea on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has tightened things up on defense as of late. Over their last five English Premier League matches, they have allowed only two goals. This focus on defense has come at the expense of limiting their scoring chances. The Foxes have scored only five goals in those last five matches. Against Watford, they relied on their counter-attack as they controlled possession for just 37.7% of that match. They were out-shot by an 8 to 7 mark. Leicester City will be without their top goal-scorer in Jamie Vardy who is out with a groin injury. That is not a good sign for their goal-scoring prospects when considering that they average only 1.43 Goals-Per-Game on the road. But the Foxes do play tight defense away from home as they are giving up just 1.57 Goals-Per-Game on the road. The Expected Goals advanced metric suggests that Leicester City should be seeing fewer goals scored in their matches. They have accumulated 20 goals this season with the xG being at 18.48. They have allowed 17 goals but the xGA is slightly lower at 16.26. Fulham has played two matches since former Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri took over of Slavisa Jovanovic. Ranieri’s primary responsibility right now is to tighten up a defense that has allowed the most goals in the EPL. Allowing only four goals in his first two matches (including a potent Chelsea side) is a good start for this team. The Cottagers have been a bit unlucky with bad luck as their xGA is 29.03 which is far below the 35 goals they have allowed. Fulham has scored 14 times this season — but the xG is a tad lower at 13.35. The Cottagers have managed only nine goals in their six matches at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Ranieri certainly is familiar with many of the current Foxes having led them to the EPL title in 2015-16. Fulham is playing a bit more controlled under his leadership. Expect a lower scoring contest. 25* EPL Midweek Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 3 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (6-0-2) takes the pitch again in English Premier League play after the international break that they went in on with a 5-1 victory over Fulham back on October 7th. Leicester City (4-0-4) went into the two-week international break on a 2-1 loss at home to Everton on October 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is one of the hottest teams in the EPL. They are looking for their tenth straight victory in all competitions as well as their seventh straight win in EPL play. The Gunners are clicking under first-year coach Unai Emery’s high-pressing, counter-attack system that creates scoring opportunities. Arsenal has scored 19 goals this season for a crisp 2.38 Goals-Per-Game scoring average. Part of the improved success for this team has certainly been because of a favorable turn of the schedule. The Gunners opened their EPL season with a difficult road against Manchester City and then Chelsea. Their six EPL matches since have been against teams outside the traditional top-six franchises (like Leicester City). In those matches, Arsenal has scored 17 goals while finding the back of the net at least twice in all those contests. The other factor that has jumpstarted this group is Emery’s decision to play Alexandre Lacazette at forward at the same time with striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. These two have developed a nice chemistry between them to form a dangerous combination of scoring threats. They each scored twice in that match against Fulham. But Emery’s high-pressing style risks making the back-line vulnerable to attack — and quality defensemen is a weakness of this team. Leicester City scores goals — they have 14 goals this season while scoring in all eight of their matches. Jamie Vardy remains one of the best strikers in all of the EPL after his star-making season in 2015-15 when he led the Foxes to the surprising EPL title. Leicester City also has found a spark plug to jumpstart their offense with midfielder James Maddison who they signed in the summer transfer period from Norwich City. Vardy has three goals with one assist this season despite a slow start to the season after helping England’s run to the Semifinals at the World Cup — and then he missed another two matches after receiving a Red Card suspension. Maddison has three goals with two assists from his midfield position. But the Foxes’ defense too often is leaky as they have allowed 12 goals this season — including 9 goals in their last five matches for a concurring 1.80 Goals-Allowed mark. Their defense will be shorthanded for this match with their captain Wes Morgan unavailable after he was issued a Red Card in that match with the Toffees two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has played two top-six opponents this season with both ending in 2-1 losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. It seems that the Gunners scoring twice and the Foxes scoring once is the baseline for this match — so let’s take our (good) chances that a fourth goal will be scored in this one this afternoon. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Burnley v. Cardiff City UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). THE SITUATION: Burnley (1-1-4) enters this match coming off a 4-0 win over Bournemouth last Saturday in EPL action. Cardiff (0-2-4) looks to rebound from a 5-0 loss to Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley’s four goals last week was quite a surprise when considering they had scored only three goals in their first five matches in the English Premier League. The Clarets’ seized a two-goal lead in the first-half and then saw their forward Ashley Barnes score twice in the final ten minutes of that match against an aggressive and desperate Bournemouth side who have been playing higher scoring matches all season. Burnley finished 7th in the EPL last season due mostly to strong defensive play under manager Sean Dyche. The Cherries were 6th in the EPL by allowing only 39 goals. They have surrendered ten goals so far this season but their early results need to be taken with a grain of salt when considering that they also played the first few weeks of the season while also focused on Europa League matches. That victory over Bournemouth was their first EPL match since getting eliminated from that tournament. They did give up 19 shots to the Cherries but most of those shots were not high-percentage — so the numbers look worse than how it played out. Burnley also got outstanding goalkeeping from Joe Hart in that contest. Moving forward, the Clarets should get back to playing outstanding defense in EPL action. But this is also a side that has scored only two goals in their three matches on the road. Last year, Burnley scored just 36 goals which was 15th in the EPL. Cardiff has surrendered at least three goals in each of their last three matches in the EPL — but those were each against top-six opponents in Arsenal, Chelsea and the reigning champions in Man City last week. They have seen only two combined goals scored in their three matches against non-top-six clubs this season with two of those matches resulting in clean sheets for their defense and keeper Neil Etheridge. The Bluebirds have only scored two goals in their three home matches while netting just three goals overall in their six EPL contests. This is a side that is willing to play ugly to grind out points — they do not want to get into a fast, aggressive contest. Manager Neil Warnock does get an important piece on defense back in Sol Bamba who has been dealing with a separated shoulder. His return to the pitch should help the play of captain Sean Morrison who forms a great back defensive pairing with Bamba when Cardiff is playing at their best.
FINAL TAKE: Cardiff will be desperate to earn their first victory of the season in a campaign where they are already in significant danger of being one of three relegated sides. They cannot expect to score more than one goal in this match — and that will dictate their tactics to be cautious and defensive. Burnley is happy to engage in that style — their four goals last week were an aberration. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (6-0-0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League last week with their 3-0 victory over Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (5-1-0) experienced their first blemish to what had been an unbeaten EPL campaign when they traveled to West Ham and left with a 0-0 draw.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This two teams played on Wednesday in the third round of the Carabao Cup which Liverpool hosted at Anfield but Chelsea came away with a 2-1 victory. Not too much should be read into that match with Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp resting his starting four defenders along with stars Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino. Klopp should have a tactical edge in this immediate rematch after getting a look as to how Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri schemed against Liverpool’s high press approach. The Reds’ have been an offensive juggernaut this season as they have scored fourteen goals in their six matches. Salah has scored only three goals so far this season after finding the back of the net 32 times in his breakout campaign last year. But the deeper metrics for Salah are quite encouraging so the Egyptian superstar may be on the verge of a breakout game. Salah will certainly be motivated to be playing against his former team. Liverpool has also scored eight of their goals on the road — so playing this match at Stamford Bridge should not slow down the Reds’ powerful offensive attack. The Liverpool defense has played well this season — but they have only played one top-six opponent this year in Tottenham which resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds playing on the road. Liverpool’s defense was at times too leaky last season — and they perhaps need an upgrade with their central defenders that Chelsea will be able to exploit. The Blues are led by Eden Hazard who is perhaps playing the best soccer in the EPL right now. He scored the winning goal on Wednesday while displaying elite level talent that shined against the Reds’ defenders. Chelsea has scored 14 times this season — and they had found the back of the net at least twice in their first five matches before failing to score last week at West Ham. But now the Blues return back home where they have scored nine times while also allowing three goals in their three matches for average combined goals mark of 4.0. Sarri’s approach with Napoli where he previously served as manager was to prioritize attacking on offense. Sarri has pushed Chelsea’s star midfielder N’Golo Kante higher up the pitch to embrace more of an offensive role as compared to the holding position he has taken over the last few seasons. But the risk of these tactics is that they are vulnerable to pressing sides who can get scoring opportunities from counter-attacks — and this is precisely Clop’s style with Liverpool.
FINAL TAKE: Both sides should score at least once in this match — at least a 2-1 result is likely. This game has the makings of an exciting, high-scoring contest. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Everton v. Arsenal OVER 3.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). THE SITUATION: Everton (1-3-1) enters this match looking to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss to West Ham last Sunday. Arsenal (3-0-2) looks to build off a 2-1 win at Newcastle last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has gotten their offense cranked up as they have scored ten goals over their last four matches. First-year manager Unai Emery has found a good combination by inserting Alexandre LaCazette into the starting lineup at forward to form a potent combination with Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. This pairing has come at the expense of another offensive midfielder in Henrikh Mkhitaryan who has lost playing time since LaCazette entered the starting XI. Emery has a well-defined system — as compared to their previous manager Arsene Wenger — that emphasizes high pressing that looks to trigger continuous pressure against their opposition. But the drawback to this approach is that this can leave their back line vulnerable to counter-attacks — and the Gunners have allowed nine goals already this season. The biggest weakness for this team is an aging defense that lacks a quality central defender — and they are banged up right now with Sean Kolasinac and Laurent Koscielny out with injuries. Emery’s hope is that he can coach up his back four while outscoring their opponents before help can be found in the next transfer window. He did inherit a squad that was tied for third in goals scored in last year’s English Premier League season. Arsenal comes off a high-scoring match midweek as well as they outscored Vorslka in Europa League play on Thursday by a 4-2 score. Everton is also banged up with their defensive back line with Yerry Mina, Michael Keane and Seamus Coleman all dealing with injuries. The Toffees defense was exposed last week after surrendering three goals to a West Ham side that entered that match with only two goals in their first four games. But Everton will get a shot in the arm with the return to the pitch of their dynamic midfielder in Richarlison who missed their last three matches from a red card suspension. The transfer from Watford made an immediate impact with his new team by scoring three times in his first two matches before getting issued that red card. His presence on the pitch makes fellow midfielder Theo Walcott more dangerous as well as forward Cenk Tosun up top. Both of Everton’s first two matches on the road resulted in 2-2 draws — so this is a group that is getting used to playing high-scoring matches. In their three matches with Richarlison starting on the pitch, the Toffees scored two goals in each contest.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring affair. Neither of these teams has recorded a clean sheet this season. And in their two English Premier League matches last year, the games saw six and seven combined goals scored both times with Arsenal finding the back of the net five times in both contests. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Southampton OVER 2 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-1-2) returns to English Premier League action today following the international break which they entered with a 2-2 draw with Fulham on September 1st. Southampton has won two straight matches in all events after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road on the first Saturday of the month by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Glenn Murray scored twice in that win over Fulham — he has found the back of the net now three times in his last four EPL matches. Murray also loves to face his southern rivals in Southampton against which he has scored four games in his last five EPL matches against them. The 34-year old will see the addition up top of Florin Andone who will be playing his first match with the team since being acquired in the summer transfer window. Murray and company will need to play aggressively in this game to keep the Gulls competitive given their poor play on the defensive end of the pitch. Brighton has allowed 60 shots in EPL play while also allowing the 4th most shots in the league from inside the box. Furthermore, the Seagulls have allowed 14 goals in their last six EPL matches going back to last season which results in a 2.3 Goals-Allowed-Average. Brighton has zero clean sheets this season so it is highly likely that Southampton will score at least once in this match. Danny Ings has found his form with the team as he scored in their match at Crystal Palace — he has two goals in his last three matches in EPL play. He will be joined up top with Charlie Austin whose seven goals in his career against Brighton represents his best scoring production against all the teams from the English Premier League. The Saints have scored only four goals this year but they are due to get a visit from the Regression Gods as they have attempted a healthy 64 shots while creating plenty of scoring chances. In their last six matches in all events, Southampton has scored 11 goals for an improving 1.72 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 1-1 draws in their two EPL matches last year. That should be the minimum expectation here — but I am expecting for at least Southampton to score a second time given their activity they are generating in front of the net against this porous Brighton defense. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Huddersfield Town v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (0-1-2) earned their first point of the season last Saturday with their 0-0 draw at home against Cardiff. Everton (1-2-0) also earned a point last week with their 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton has scored two goals in each of their first three matches this season which may tempt some bettors to take the Over in this match with them being -1.0 goal favorites. But the metrics indicate that the Toffees have been very fortunate in front of the net with 20% of their shots reaching the back of the net — that is the highest mark in the English Premier League and likely due for regression. Everton will be without their top offensive player in this match in midfielder Richarlison who has scored three of the teams six goals this year. Richarlison earned a red card in that match last week against Cardiff who garnered him a three-game suspension. The Toffees still have Theo Walcott as a scoring option in the middle of the field — but while he has scored twice so far this season he has managed only four shots on net. I think he will struggle without Richarlison on the pitch — Everton blew their 2-0 lead against the Cherries when playing with ten players after his red card. The Toffees are also dealing with injuries on defense with three central defenders likely out for this match. That situation will likely compel manager Marco Silva to have his team play cautiously with the hopes of wearing down an inferior opponent. Everton scored only ten goals at home in Goodison Park in their last ten matches — but they gave up only nine goals in those matches for a low 1.9 combined goals average. Huddersfield is not a threat to score goals in this match. After finishing tied for the bottom in the EPL last year with just 28 goals, the Terriers have scored only once in their three EPL matches this year. They were also held scoreless in their Carabou Cup match on Tuesday this week which resulted in a 2-0 loss at Stoke City. In their scoreless draw with Cardiff last week, Huddersfield managed only five shots with just one on target. Their sixteen shots overall this year is last in the EPL. Their offensive cause is not helped with midfielder Jonathan Hogg suspended after earning a red card last week. Last year, the Terriers failed to score in twenty-one of their thirty-eight matches — and they only managed to score in six of their matches on the road. In their last eight matches on the road in the EPL last season, they scored only four goals — but they allowed only ten goals for a low 1.75 combined Goals-Per-Game average. Manager David Wagner is crafty and will likely have his team play very deep with the hopes of stealing a point in a scoreless draw. The team lacks a quality striker which often compels Wagner to use only forward on the pitch in exchange for more defenders. Huddersfield did have the eighth most clean sheets last year so a 0-0 draw is not out of the realm of the possibilities in his mind.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won both matches between these two clubs last year by 2-0 scores. With the Terriers attack looking to be even less potent this season and the Toffees significantly undermanned, expect another low-scoring contest. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
105 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (2-0-0) have won their opening two games of the new season with their 3-1 win over Fulham last Saturday. Manchester United (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 upset loss last Sunday at Brighton and Hove Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The pressure is mounting on Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho whose preferred defensive tactics are not matching with the talent he has on this Red Devils roster. Man United managed only nine shots despite controlling the possession for 66.6% of this match — and yet they allowed two goals to a Brighton team that was 17th in the entire EPL in goals scored last year. David de Gea was perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world last year but he has been off his game since the World Cup where he was part of Spain’s disappointment. The Red Devils have allowed four goals this season — so while it is tempting to think that Mourinho will want to tighten things up even more after that embarrassing loss, his team’s defensive form suggests that is not a winning strategy. Mourinho saw implosions in his third year as the manager for both Chelsea and Real Madrid so his seat is red hot right now. The pressure is on Man United offensive players to register goals in this important contest with a good Spurs side. The Red Devils are 5th in goals scored last year with 68 — and 41 of those goals were scored at home at Old Trafford for a 2.16 Goals-Per-Game average. In their last five home matches against one of the Top Six teams in the EPL, Man United has scored ten goals. But the problem for Mourinho is that his team has also surrendered seven goals in those last five home contests hosting a Top Six side. The Red Devils produced only one clean sheet at home all of last season against a Top Six team — so it is likely that the Spurs will score in this contest. Tottenham has scored five times in their first two matches with Harry Kane breaking his EPL August cold-streak by finally scoring in the opening month of the season last week in the 77th minute against Fulham. Kane enjoyed a great run with England in the World Cup and he looks to remain in top form now. The Spurs have scored 1.8 Goals in their last ten EPL games on the road while allowing 1.1 Goals-Per-Game against their home hosts. More importantly, they have scored six goals in their last three road matches against a Top Six team in EPL action while allowing those Top Six opponents to score seven times. Tottenham has also allowed nine goals in their last four road contests in the EPL against a Top Six opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The urgency to win this match will likely produce a 2-1 result (at least). The Spurs should score at least once on the road — and Manchester United tends to break out of Mourinho’s organizational straight-jacket when the goings get rough. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-18 |
Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-18 |
Leicester v. Manchester United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). THE SITUATION: The 2018-19 English Premier League kicks off their season on Friday with the 2015-16 Champions with Leicester City (0-0-0) traveling to Old Trafford to face Manchester United (0-0-0).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a match greatly impacted by the World Cup last month — a number of key offensive talent will be missing from both sides. Leicester City will be without Jamie Vardy after he played was the backup striker for the England team that made it to the Semifinals. Vardy did not play a bunch for the Three Lions but he just joined the Foxes in training so manager Claude Puel does not think he is in shape to take the pitch. Leicester City has an intriguing young striker in 21-year old Kelechi Iheanacho but he is a step down from Vardy who is one of the best scoring forwards in the English Premier League after playing a vital role in that championship run three seasons ago. Puel will likely have his team rely even more on defense and counter-attacks with the loss of their star midfielder Riyad Mahrez who inked a big transfer to Manchester City this summer. The Foxes were 17th in the EPL last year by allowing 60 goals — but they are likely to change their tactics this year while being aided by a nice signing in center back Jonny Evans who came over from the relegated West Brom. Manchester United will likely be without a host of players who were still playing in the Semifinals of the World Cup: forward Romelu Lukaku, midfielders Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marouane Fellaini and defenseman Ashley Young. Cohesion will likely be an issue for this team after manager Jose Mourinho took a squad to the United States for the International Champions Cup matches without a whopping thirteen players who needed the time off after playing in the World Cup. The Red Devils will hope that backup forward Marcus Rashford or Alexis Sanchez in the midfield will be able to score — but they will be very happy with a 1-0 result. Mourinho’s team emphasizes defensive tactics to the frustration of many of his players and fans. The Red Devils were second in the EPL last year by allowing a mere 28 goals for a low 0.74 Goals-Per-Game allowed mark. Mourinho is also dealing with some injuries to midfielder Nemanja Matic and right back Antonio Valencia who both play critical roles in his defensive tactics. The absence of these two players will likely compel the Red Devils to play even more cautiously in this contest and not risk Leicester City seizing a lead.
FINAL TAKE: This opening match shapes up to feature conservative tactics on both sides given the absences for both teams. Leicester City would be thrilled with a scoreless draw while Mourinho’s teams tend to hold out to the second-half to finally get on the board. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
England v. Belgium OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-167 |
13 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-1) comes off a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Croatia on Wednesday. Belgium (5-0-1) also has to settle for the third-place consolation match after they lost to France on Tuesday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These consolation this place matches tend to be higher scoring affairs. Each of the last ten third-place matches have seen at least three combined goals scored with six of these contests producing four or more combined goals. There are a few reasons for the uptick in scoring. First, the fear of losing liberates many managers from employing overly cautious defensive tactics. Teams are less likely to park the proverbial bus in the back — and midfielders are more likely to engage in attacking positions. It is difficult to motivate teams to get up for this match after they just lost in the Semifinals. Engaging in a more aggressive style of play helps to motivate players again. Second, managers often rotate players. There is no sense in pushing players dealing with knocks if the stakes are lower. It also makes sense to use this contest to provide playing time for bench players who have not played as much in this tournament. But this influx of new players can detract from chemistry and cohesion on defense. Third, with the pressure of this single elimination tournament now gone, players tend to play looser without the tentativeness that anxiety often instills. Pressure tends to create lower scoring matches since the onus is on the offense to execute plays to create scoring opportunities. Fourth, some players will still be motivated to score goals if they remain in contention to win the Golden Boot Award for most goals in the World Cup. England’s Harry Kane leads all players with six goals — and he would love to add another one or two goals to that tally to likely clinch his name being placed on that trophy. Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku is also in the mix for that award with four goals so he will also be looking to add to his total. The Red Devils have scored 14 goals in their six matches while the Three Lions have scored 12 times — so these are two teams that are typically scoring at least two goals per match.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams did play in their last Group Stage match back on June 28th which Belgium won by a 1-0 score. Both managers rested key players in that match since both sides had clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. It is unlikely either manager will want to see such a conservative approach in this rematch with nothing at stake except pride and building excitement for their national teams moving forward. 25* World Cup A-List O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-18 |
England v. Croatia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
23 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Sweden on Saturday. Croatia (5-0-0) matched that accomplishment by surviving facing the most nation Russia by winning a shootout by a 4-3 score after that match was deadlocked at 2-2 after 120 minutes of play.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Croatia is dealing with injury issues. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic injured his calf during that match with the Russians. While he finished the match, he was clearly hampered by that injury. He will start this match but his effectiveness remains in doubt. The Vatreni are also dealing with an injury to their best defensive player in Atletico Madrid’s Sime Vrsalijko who suffered a knock on Saturday. Not only will Croatia miss his play on the pitch but the changes that his absence forces manager Zlatko Dalic to make impacts the cohesion of that back line. These injuries will negatively impact the defensive makeup for this team. The Vatrenia have allowed only one goal via a set piece in this tournament — but they have allowed 22 shots via set pieces which is tied for the most in this tournament. This has been a counterattacking side for much of this World Cup where they have increased their offensive pressure if and when they got into jeopardy — as they did against Russia when the Bears forced extra time by tying that score at 1-1. Surrendering that second goal to Russia in the 115th minute mark does not speak well to the stinginess of their defense in crunch time either since the Bears are not offensive juggernauts. Croatia has scored ten times in their five matches — and seven of those goals were after the first-half when the sense of urgency was amped. England has scored eleven goals in their five matches. Eight of these goals has come from set pieces (including three penalty kicks). The Three Lions are averaging 5.71 shots via set pieces per 90 minutes in this tournament with 1.73 of these shots being on target. They should generate good looks from set pieces against this Croatia side. England has allowed only four goals — but they have benefited from a favorable opening pair of matches against Panama and Tunisia that lacks offensive firepower but who still scored on them twice. In fact, their Quarterfinals match with Sweden was their first clean sheet of this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: This match may start slow with both sides being patient — but before the 90 minute regulation period is over, I expect both sides to have scored with a very good likelihood that at least one of these teams has scored twice. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-18 |
England v. Sweden UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of the World Cup by defeating Colombia on Tuesday by a 4-3 score in the shootout after that match was deadlocked at 1-1 after 120 minutes of play. Sweden (3-0-1) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 1-0 win over Switzerland.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden is built to grind out low-scoring matches under manager Janne Andersson — just like they did against the Swiss. The Blue and Yellow have allowed only two goals in their four matches in this tournament. They also lead all teams with 140 defensive clearances in this World Cup. But Sweden has also scored only six times in their four matches. That continues a disturbing trend in their preparations for this tournament where they only scored once in their last four friendlies. Furthermore, in their final playoff match in the qualification stage for the World Cup, the Blue and Yellow advanced by holding Italy scoreless in those 180 minutes of competition. Even in the 2016 Euro with their talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the pitch before retiring from international play, Sweden scored only one goal in their three Group Stage matches. England has allowed only four goals in their four matches. And while the Three Lions have scored nine goals in this tournament, eight of these goals were in their first two matches against two of the weakest teams in the World Cup in Panama and Tunisia.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden’s plan to win this match is to focus almost entirely on defense while taking their chances with counterattacks. They will be very happy with a scoreless match after the 90 minutes of regulation time. I am not sure they will be successful — they Blue and Yellows should dictate the pace and tempo of this match. 25* World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-18 |
England v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Colombia (9883) and England (9884). THE SITUATION: England (2-0-1) reached the Knockout Stage after winning their first two matches in Group Stage play. With only first place at stake which did not guarantee a better Knockout Stage draw, the Three Lions played a listless match with a similarly unmotivated Belgium side that resulted in a 1-0 victory for The Red Devils. Colombia (2-0-1) needed a win while getting — and that all came together for Los Cafeteros as they defeated Senegal by a 1-0 score. But Colombia’s best player, James Rodriguez, injured his right leg in the match and has remained in doubt for this match even as we approach kickoff.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manager Jose Pekerman will wait until an hour before match time to reveal his plans for Rodriguez. Personally, I am expecting Rodriguez to take the pitch. Tests on Saturday revealed swelling but no muscle tear — so he has had over two days to reduce the swelling from that injury. While Rodriguez may not start the match, I will not be surprised to see him playing in the second half. That said, to take the Over, I have to assume that Colombia will score at least one goal in this match — even if they are without the services of Rodriguez for the entire contest. I do think Los Cafeteros will score. This Colombia roster is loaded with talent in this golden generation of their national team even without Rodriguez. Their captain, Radamel Falcao, was injured and missed the 2014 World Cup where they made it to the Quarterfinals. Colombia also has a rising star in Juan Fernando Quintero and the player dubbed “James Junior” for his history of stepping up in Rodriguez’s absence. Quintero has been involved in three of Los Cafeteros’ five goals in this World Cup. Colombia has scored five times in their three matches with one of them occurring despite playing with just ten men in their opening match against Japan. In their last major international tournament in the 2016 Copa America, Los Cafeteros scored 11 times while surrendering 6 goals in six matches that resulted in a Third Place finish. England has scored eight times in this tournament — and their six goals via set pieces were the most of any team in the Group Stage. The offensive numbers for this Three Lions team would be even better if anything would have been on the line in their third match against Belgium where both teams went through the motions. Led by Harry Kane and his five goals, this England team is blessed with plenty of offensive firepower. But I do have concerns over their back line that feature three fullbacks not playing their natural position from their professional teams in the English Premier League. This group has yet to be tested with matches against lowly Panama and Tunisia before their glorified scrimmage with Belgium. England has scored in seventeen of their last eighteen Knockout Stage matches in the World Cup.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that are happy to push the pace and push the ball vertically up the field. I think the worst case scenario is a match that sees at least two combined goals — and the probability that one of these teams scores at least twice in the regulation time being very high since neither of these sides will even consider parking the bus in back. 25* World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Colombia (9883) and England (9884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-18 |
Denmark v. Croatia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9767) and Croatia (9768). THE SITUATION: Denmark (1-2-0) received the point they needed to secure advancing to the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw with France last Tuesday. Croatia (3-0-0) completed a perfect Group Stage mark on Tuesday with their 2-1 win over Iceland.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams allowed only one goal in their group stage matches with both of those coming off penalty kicks. Given those strong defensive numbers, taking the under might look very tempting to many bettors. However, don’t be surprised if this ends up being a higher-scoring affair. Denmark only scored two goals in their three matches. But after their 1-0 win over Peru in their first match, they were happy to live with the two draws they secured against Australia and France while never having to abandon their organized but methodical tactics. That may have to change for the Danish Dynamite in this match against a Croatia side that scored seven times in their three group stage matches. Despite their outstanding defensive numbers in this tournament, it would not be accurate to describe Denmark as a defensive team as they are willing to take their chances in attack led by Tottenham dynamo Christian Eriksen. In this national team’s four matches in the knockout stage of the World Cup, the Danes have scored seven times while allowing nineteen goals. The average total in those four matches was 4.75 combined goals scored. Croatia scored at least two goals in all three of their group stage matches even after making nine changes in their 2-1 victory over Iceland in their last contest against Iceland. The Vatreni are very gifted in their attacking players which facilitates their aggressive style. But despite their good defensive numbers, Croatia is less than stout in their backline. In the 2016 Euro which was their last international tournament, they allowed four goals in their three group stage matches while scoring five times. Their tournament ended with a 1-0 loss that was dictated by Portugal’s extreme caution that led to neither side attempting a shot on target in regulation time. The Vatreni have not played in a cautious manner like that match in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Denmark is unbeaten in their last eighteen matches and will be a difficult out in this elimination contest. Croatia will score — but the Danish Dynamite should keep pace. 25* World Cup Sunday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9767) and Croatia (9768). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Colombia v. Senegal OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Senegal (9753) and Colombia (9754). THE SITUATION: Senegal (1-1-0) enters this third match in Group H play coming off a 2-2 draw with Japan on Sunday. A draw in this match would be enough for Senegal to advance to the Knockout Stage. Colombia (1-0-1) comes off a 3-0 win over Poland on Sunday. This team needs a result while getting some help from Poland to advance to the Knockout Stage. A victory in this match sees Los Cafeteros through to the Round of 16. Colombia can live with a draw in this match only if Japan fails to defeat Poland.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Since both these teams have yet to clinch a spot in the Knockout Stage, both sides will likely feel senses of urgency on the pitch to score. We have already witnessed plenty of matches that are scoreless in the first-half before seeing a second-half that sees a handful of goals scored with desperation kicking in. When teams can no longer rely on parking the bus in their back end to play defense, not only does their aggressiveness create more scoring opportunities but it makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Colombia will need to be the aggressors to open this match since they need a positive result. Los Cafeteros are developing a nice trio of players complementing each other in James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado, and Juan Fernando Quintero. Rodriguez was the Golden Boot winner in the 2014 World Cup with six goals and two assists and was in-form for Bayern Munich this past season. He assisted on two of Colombia’s three goals. Quintero is known as “James Jr.” since his previous role was often to replace Rodriguez in the starting XI when their striker was unavailable but manager Jose Pekeman has decided to insert his talents into the starting group. Cuadrado is a solid cog in the midfield who plays professionally for Juventus. Pekeman is also getting a key piece back in midfielder Carlos Sanchez who was suspended for that match with Poland. And remember that in their 2-1 loss to Japan to begin their tournament, Los Cafeteros played that match with only ten players on the pitch for 84 minutes of that match after Sanchez was booked with a red card. The offensive prowess of this team probably was more accurately displayed against Poland considering that they were at full strength for all that match. Senegal has also scored four goals in this tournament while displaying some beautiful attacking moments. With Liverpool star Sadio Mane leading the way, the Lions of Teranga have one of the best offensive talents in the world on the pitch. Senegal plays a fast, attacking style when they are most comfortable. Manager Alion Cisse may try to have his team start cautiously considering that a scoreless draw serves them very well. But if and when this team falls behind, they will immediately need to begin pressing forward since they risk disaster if they lose this match. Senegal has scored two or more goals in each of their last six World Cup matches. And they have been a bit porous on the defensive end of things by giving up three goals in this tournament while experiencing a few more nervy moments.
FINAL TAKE: With the stakes high for both these teams, at least three combined goals seems highly likely before everything is said and done. 25* World Cup Group G Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Senegal (9753) and Colombia (9754). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-18 |
Germany v. South Korea UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Korean Republic (9738) and Germany (9737). THE SITUATION: Both these teams remain technically alive to advance to the Knockout Stage. Germany (1-0-1) comes off a 2-1 win over Sweden last Saturday. They need to match Sweden’s result with Mexico while scoring one more goal than them in the process to ensure they secure the Goals-Scored tie-breaker. South Korea (0-0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Mexico on Saturday. The Taegeuk Warriors need Mexico to defeat Sweden while they defeat the Germans with one of these Wednesday victories occurring by at least two goals to put them in a position to eke out the second team advancing from Group F in what will turn out to be an elaborate tie-breaker.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Germany played better on Saturday than in their second match against Mexico where too often El Tri put them on their back foot. Die Mannschaft pulled out the victory over the Swedes despite being down to 10 men at the 82nd-minute mark when defenseman Jerome Boateng was issued a red card. The German defense did not waver — and they continued to pressure until Toni Kroos scored a spectacular goal in the waning moments of the six minutes of stoppage time. Germany will not have the services of Boateng in this match as he serves his suspension but the team will get back their best player on their back line in Matt Hummels who missed Saturday’s match with an injury. Germany will want to score goals in this match to secure the tie-breaker — but a comfortable win will likely be all they need to advance. They have only allowed two goals in this tournament while getting some outstanding player their keeper Manuel Neuer. But the Germans have only scored twice as they appear out of synch on offense from past squads. The Korean Republic’s goal against Mexico is the only time they have scored in this tournament. They lacked offensive imagination in their qualification matches so this their ability to get on the board will likely continue. Their main scoring threat is Son Heung-min who stars as a midfielder for Tottenham in the English Premier League — but the Germans have plenty of talent to key on him without sacrificing positioning elsewhere. The TaeGuek Warriors will be without their captain and best passer on the team in Ki Sung-Yueng who will be out for this match with a calf injury which leaves the offensive threats for this group even more limited.
FINAL TAKE: The Korean Republic will struggle to score goals in this match. Germany should control this match and win with comfort — but their zeal to run up the score will be mitigated by their need to control possession while limiting counter-attack opportunities from the Taeguek Warriors. 25* World Cup Group F Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the Korean Republic (9738) and Germany (9737). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Serbia v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-222 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Serbia (9475) and Switzerland (9476). THE SITUATION: Serbia (1-0-0) finds themselves in the driver’s seat in Group E after their opening 1-0 win over Costa Rica last Saturday. Switzerland (0-1-0) are in decent shape with their 1-1 draw with Brazil last Saturday as well but need some kind of result in this match.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Swiss National Team frustrated the power Brazilian side with a defensive web that featured pressing in the midfield. Switzerland is very organized with a strong midfield led by Sheridan Shaqiri and and Granit Xhaka who start for Stoke City and Arsenal. These high pressing tactics should also frustrate this Serbian team. Switzerland are well-respected and capable — but they are a side that looks to grind out low-scoring matches. In their Round of 16 run in the 2016 Euro, they allowed only two goals in four matches. However, they only scored three goals in those contests. Their lack of a quality center forward makes their manager Vladimir Petkovic reliant on defensive tactics for good results. Serbia displayed encouraging team cohesion in their victory over Costa Rica. Their lone goal by their center forward Aleksander Mitrovic came off a free kick set piece. But this is a side where scoring will likely be at a premium as well despite their scoring of 20 goals in an albeit weak qualification group that includes Wales, Georgia, Austria and Moldova. The Eagles have experienced talent in their back-line that will be relied on this match. Serbia will be quite content with a draw since it keeps them in position to advance to the Knockout Stage.
FINAL TAKE: There have been plenty of 1-0 results so far in this World Cup — and that looks like a distinct possibility in this match between two strong defensive teams that lack scoring prowess. 25* World Cup Friday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Serbia (9475) and Switzerland (9476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-18 |
Croatia v. Argentina OVER -2 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). THE SITUATION: Argentina (0-1-0) settled for a 1-1 draw with Iceland last Saturday in their opening match in the World Cup. Croatia (1-0-0) is alone in first place in Group D with their 2-0 victory over Nigeria.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Argentina was frustrated by the defensive tactics of Iceland who were content to park the bus in their back end. La Abliceleste scored only once despite their attempting a whopping 26 shots. However, Argentina would have remained in fine shape going into this match if Lionel Messi takes advantage of the penalty kick he took in that contest. Now La Abliceleste faces an urgent situation where a loss would put their chances to advance to the Group Stage very much in doubt. Sergio Aguero scored the only goal for Argentina which should ensure he remains in manager Jorge Sampaoli’s starting lineup with changes likely coming. Having the Manchester City star forward on the pitch to complement Messi should help the Argentine offense gel. However, La Abliceleste’s ability to slow down their opponents remains a big concern for this team whose high press makes them vulnerable in their back end that consists of players that are perhaps too old, too slowing and still unfamiliar with the system they are playing for their national team. Croatia will be relaxed after their decisive victory over the Super Eagles — and that makes them dangerous as technical underdogs. The Vatreni are very gifted with attacking players that are aggressive within their possession tactics. And while Croatia only allowed four goals in their last ten World Cup qualification matches, they are less than stout in their back end while being prone to errors. Like Argentina, the Vatreni typically face opponents primarily focused on defense with occasional counter-attacks given the oozing talent they have on the pitch.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this contest which makes a push the likely worst-case scenario. The urgency that Argentina will have in this match should ensure at least one of these two sides scores at least two goals. This will be an open, free-flowing match with neither side playing cautiously — and that is a formula for a high-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Group D Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (9464) and Croatia (9463). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-18 |
Iran v. Spain OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Iran (9457) and Spain (9458). THE SITUATION: Spain (0-1-0) earned a point last Friday with a 3-3 draw with Portugal. Iran (1-0-0) finds themselves alone in first place in Group B play with their 1-0 victory over Morocco on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain rallied from a 1-0 deficit against Portugal to take a 3-2 lead before having their hearts broken by Cristiano Ronaldo who scored a game-tying goal off a free kick in the 88th minute. The good news for La Roja is that their offense was clicking by scoring three goals on the defensive-minded reigning European champions who allowed only five goals in those seven matches in 2016. Diego Costa produced a brace with his two goals which provided ample evidence that his aggressive style could harmonize with the possession tactics of the Spanish national team. La Roja scored 36 goals in their ten qualification matches for this tournament — so this is a side that can generate another three goals themselves in this match. A draw would produce a nervy third match for the 2010 World Cup champions against Morocco — instead, this is a team that not only needs the 3 points from a victory but also some extra goals to boost their goal differential margin in case that becomes necessary as a tie-breaker to be one of the two teams that advance out of Group B. But the Spanish defense looked shaky at times on Friday — and their world-class keeper David de Gea did not perform well with the second goal he allowed to Ronaldo being a roller that he should have scooped up. La Roja’s tiki-taka style makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks — and this is the main source of offense coming from Team Melli. Iran did not score on Morocco in their match with the winning goal coming from an own-goal late in stoppage time. But they did pressure the Moroccan keeper with five shots on target in that match. In their qualification matches for this tournament where they went 12-6-0, the Iranians demonstrated that they can score goals with the core of their forwards and midfielders playing professionally in Europe. Their potential breakout star (their “Iranian Messi”) is 23-year-old Sardar Azmoun who plays his professional soccer in Russia. He has 23 goals in 33 national team contests.
FINAL TAKE: Spain is a powerhouse offensive juggernaut that will likely score at least two to three goals in this contest. But they have proven loose on the pitch in their back end — and Iran has the talent to stay competitive. This should be a high-scoring match. 25* World Cup Group B Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Iran (9457) and Spain (9458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-18 |
Denmark v. Peru OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9421) and Peru (9422). Denmark and Peru face off in a match that will likely play a decisive role in who advances (along with France) out of Group C play. These two teams rank 12th and 11th in the world according to FIFA — and the ELO ratings have Peru 10th and Denmark 16th in the world. FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index that is used by ESPN ranks Denmark as the 14th best team in this tournament while dropping Peru to the 19th best side at the World Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While those various ranking systems diverge regarding who is likely the better side, all three suggest this will be a closely decided match between very competitive teams. The urgency of this situation should compel both sides to push the agenda. A victory for either side with those subsequent 3 points would put that team in a great position to advance to the Knockout Stage. On the other hand, a loss would be disastrous. Both sides can live with a draw — but that would only delay the likely resolution these two teams seem destined to have to determine who joins the French in the Round of 16. Denmark is led by a dynamic scorer in Christian Eriksen who stars for Tottenham in the English Premier League. The creative midfielder scored 11 goals in World Cup qualifying matches which was third most for any player — and his 41 scoring chances was the most of any player. He is supporting a group of complementary players with size and efficiency that mostly represent rosters in the professional leagues in Europe. Manager Age Hareire has his team play cautiously — but this group does not park the bus in back. The Danish Dynamite will aggressively attack their opponents as evidenced by their 5-1 victory over the Republic of Ireland which clinched their qualification for this World Cup. But the Denmark defense is vulnerable in their back end with significant questions regarding their fullback pair. Peru is dangerous given their attacking flair led by their 34-year-old talisman Paolo Guerrero who has been cleared to play by FIFA after seeing his suspension for a positive drug test overturned. Guerrero has 34 goals in 87 caps for the Incas. This is a battle-tested team that finished 5th in a very competitive CONMEBOL (finishing above reigning Copa America champion Chile). Peru reached the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Copa America (with a win over Brazil) after a strong 3rd place finish in the 2015 Copa America. Manager Ricardo Gareca has this team in excellent form as they have not lost their last twelve matches since a 2-0 loss to Brazil in November of 2016. The Incas high-press creates scoring opportunities — but they are vulnerable in their back end particularly on the wing. Peru can also be beat via set pieces as they allowed ten goals off set pieces in their World Cup qualifying matches — so don’t be surprised if Eriksen scores or assists from that situation this afternoon.
FINAL TAKE: I expect both teams to score in this match with so much at stake. Neither of these teams expect to win through clean sheets. I think the worst case scenario is a push with the Total set at 2 in most spots — with a very good chance that at least three combined goals are scored. 25* World Cup Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the match between Denmark (9421) and Peru (9422). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-17 |
Liverpool v. Stoke City OVER 3 |
Top |
3-0 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total (of 3.0) in the match between Stoke City (35568) and Liverpool (35567). Liverpool (6-5-2) returns to the pitch looking to get back into the Top Four of the English Premier League table after falling to 6th place on Saturday with their 1-1 draw with Chelsea. That was the second straight match where the Reds surrendered a lead after blowing a 3-0 lead last Tuesday in a midweek Champions League match with Sevilla that ended in a 3-3 draw. Defense was an issue for this team last year that lacks depth in their back-line and too often plays sloppy in manager Jurgen Clop’s high-pressing system. Liverpool has allowed 16 goals in their six matches on the road in EPL action this season. But the Pool Boys are a powerful on offense as they are 3rd in the EPL with 25 goals for the year. Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino did not play in that match against Chelsea as they were given the day off after that Champions League match. Both players should be back on the pitch this afternoon which will boost their offensive attack.
Stoke City (3-4-6) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 2-1 loss at Crystal Palace on Saturday. The Potters took a 1-0 lead against the basement team in the EPL table but blew a one-goal lead for the third time in their last two league matches. In theory, this is supposed to be a defensive team under manager Mark Hughes. In practice, they have produced only one clean sheet in their last eleven matches while allowing at least two goals in eight of their last ten contests. This team really missed their top keeper Jack Butland who is the English national team’s top goalkeeper — but he is out with an injury and backup Lee Grant does not make as many spectacular saves. But if there is a bright side for this team, it is that they are starting to score more goals as they have found the back of the net five times in their last three matches. Striker Saido Berahino did not play on Saturday against Crystal Palace but both he and Ramadan Sobhi who has been injured should be back on the pitch for this important match at home. Stoke City should score at least once — and perhaps twice — in what will be likely a losing effort to Liverpool. But that should be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total (of 3.0) in the match between Stoke City (35568) and Liverpool (35567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-17 |
Huddersfield Town v. West Ham United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham United (81832) and Huddersfield Town (81833). West Ham (0-0-3) remained winless back on August 26th with their 3-0 loss at Newcastle. The Hammers have yet to score a goal this season — and this was after last year’s campaign where they only scored 47 goals for the entire season. Defense was their calling card under manager Slaven Bilic whose tactics kept things afloat despite their difficulties in scoring goals. The team did make a major signing last month when they acquired Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez from Bayer Leverkusen in the German Professional League. Unfortunately for Bilic, the Mexican star will not have many of his key teammates in this match. Midfielder Marko Arnautovic is suspended for this match while midfielders Manuel Lanzini, Andrew Ayew and Edmilison Fernandes are all out with injuries. Forward Andy Carroll is also questionable for this afternoon’s match with a knock of his own leaving this side thin up front. West Ham does return home to play their first match this season — and they need a result. They managed only eight shots against Newcastle and they will likely lean heavily on their good depth in their backfield along with a strong keeper in Joe Hart who is on load with the club from Man City.
Huddersfield (2-1-0) enters this match after their 0-0 draw with Southampton back on August 26th. The Terriers have been one of the surprises of the season so far as they have not lost a match after being one of the three teams to get promoted from the Champions League last season. This franchise are true minnows in the English Premier League with this being their first ever campaign at the top level of English football. And the 4-4-4-1 system of manager David Wagner has helped this team to not yet surrender a goal. But the Terriers have scored only four goals themselves in their three matches. They will be very happy to live with another scoreless draw with this being a road contest for them. Expect a low-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between West Ham United (81832) and Huddersfield Town (81833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-17 |
Leicester v. Manchester United OVER 3 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Manchester United (84578) and Leicester City (84577). Manchester United (2-0-0) has been the toast of the new English Premier League season so far this year after winning their second straight game by a 4-0 score. This side looks dominant — particularly on offense after scoring eight goals so far this season. The $100 million acquisition of forward Romelu Lukaku looks to be just what the doctor ordered as he has given the team an active and fluid attacker that better fits the team as compared to their big pickup last year of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But the key newcomer for this team is midfielder Nemanja Matic who played a key role for the champions Chelsea last season. Matic reunites with manager Jose Mouinho from his time in Chelsea. Not only does he offer the side a defensive-minded controlling midfielder but his presence on the pitch frees up Paul Pogba to become more of an attacker from the middle of the field. It is the chemistry between Pogba and Lukaku that makes the Red Devils very dangerous this season. Man United should score at least twice on their home field this afternoon.
Leicester City (1-0-1) has looked good themselves in this bounce-back season after suffering a big (and seemingly inevitable) letdown from their 2015 winning campaign. After a game effort at Arsenal that ended in a 4-3 loss in their opening match, the Foxes bounced back last week with a solid 2-0 victory over newby Brighton. Leicester City has scored six goals so far this season while conceding three. They have one of the best young strikers in the game in Jamie Vardy. More importantly for this team, star midfielder Riyad Mahrez seems to back in form and good spirits. Mahrez has been asking for a transfer but he seemed to be in 2015 form last week against Brighton. Injuries hurt the Foxes last year but this team is fit right now. Look for Leicester to score at least once and keep this match competitive. A minimum of three goals should be scored with a very good chance of us hitting four or more combined goals. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Manchester United (84578) and Leicester City (84577). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-17 |
Jamaica v. United States UNDER 2 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total (2.0) in the match between Jamaica (7511) and the USMNT (7512). The USMNT (4-1-0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over Costa Rica on Saturday. While that final result suggests a decisive victory for the Americans, that match was still scoreless after 70 minutes of play until Jozy Altidore scored at the 72nd minute mark. Clint Dempsey — on the pitch as a second-half substitute — then added the second and last goal ten minutes later. Despite controlling the ball for 57% of the match, the Stars and Stripes only attempted 10 shots. But Tim Howard was outstanding in goal for the USMNT to help the Yankees earn their third straight clean sheet. Team USA has allowed only three goals in five matches in this tournament. Expect the Stars and Stripes to play cautiously on their home soil in this Finals match. Depth is an advantage for this team — and this Finals match will have a 30 minute extra time before the contest resorts to a Penalty Kick resolution (as opposed to going directly to PKs after 90 minutes as all the matches in both Group Stage play as well as the Quarterfinals and Semifinals). Remember, Totals plays in soccer are evaluated after 90 minutes of play (and after the few minutes of potential time to accommodate the running clock). Furthermore, there is the issue of Dempsey likely to continue to come off the bench in this match. The forward may be looking to pass Landon Donovan for most goals by an American in international play for the USMNT but the 34-year old cannot be relied upon as a key piece in any potential 2018 World Cup team given his rising age. The Stars and Stripes may be content with not taking many chances until Dempsey takes the pitch sometime in the second-half.
Jamaica (3-2-0) reached the Finals of this tournament with their 1-0 upset win over Mexico on Sunday. This was an impressive victory for the Reggae Boyz who frustrated El Tri in their Group Stage match that ended in a 0-0 draw and continued to stymie the Mexicans even after they made adjustments in this rematch. Jamaica has a very fine back line led by three quality MLS players in Kemar Lawrence, Alvas Powell and Jermaine Taylor. They are experienced and play with discipline. Perhaps more importantly for international play, they are very comfortable playing with each other and offer the team great cohesion. Furthermore, Jamaica has an outstanding goalkeeper in Andre Blake who was the Man of the Match on Sunday with his five saves. The Philadelphia Union keeper was the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year in 2016. The Reggae Boyz have allowed only two goals in this tournament. And they have earned the opportunity to win this event despite scoring only six goals in their five matches. Jamaica is quite happy to muck things up on their end by playing with a buck mentality while taking sporadic chances on the counter-attack. Jamaica has been successful in imposing their style of play in this tournament. Expect another low-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total (2.0) in the match between Jamaica (7511) and the USMNT (7512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-17 |
United States v. Costa Rica OVER 2 |
Top |
2-0 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the USMNT (35789) and Costa Rica (35790). The United States (3-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over El Salvador. The Stars and Stripes lead all teams in this tournament with nine goals in four matches — and they saw Gyasi Zardes’ goal scored in the Quarterfinals waved off from an incorrect offsides call (in hindsight). The offensive firepower of this team has significantly improved with manager Bruce Arena’s decisions to tap forwards Clint Dempsey and Jozy Altidore along with midfielders Michael Bradley and Darlington Nagbe to begin the Knockout Stage — so this is a roster that looks more like the one Arena hopes to see next summer in the World Cup. Tim Howard also took over in goal for Brad Guzan who joined his new team in the MLS (Atlanta United). But despite that clean sheet on Wednesday, the USMNT looked shaky on defense against El Salvador who blew a handful of strong scoring chances.
Costa Rica (3-1-0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament with their 1-0 victory over Panama on Wednesday. Los Ticos won that game due to Panama actually scoring an own-goal at the 77th minute mark. Costa Rica has only scored five goals — by players in their own uniforms — in this tournament. They also made four players changes for the Knockout State of this event which included losing their 24-year old star forward Joel Campbell who suffered a knee injury that may keep him on the shelf for six months. Los Ticos got some great goaltending from their keeper Patrick Pemberton on Wednesday against Panama in what was his third clean sheet in their last four matches. Those are some of the reasons why the Total is posted just at 2 for this Semifinals match. But there are reasons to suspect that Costa Rica can increase their offensive productivity if need be tonight. They did collect a healthy ten shots against Panama with five of them on target. This is a counter-attacking team that has not scored more goals because they have not needed to — they have won three of their four matches with the fourth resulting in a 1-1 draw with Canada. The USMNT is not playing with cohesion right now — and that should facilitate a more open match where the loser is eliminated. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Total of the Year withOver the Total in the match between the USMNT (35789) and Costa Rica (35790). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-17 |
Honduras v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total (2.5) in the match between Honduras (47365) and Mexico (47366). Mexico (2-1-0) clinched winning Group C of this Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over Curacao on Sunday. Despite that victory, El Tri has been far from dominant in this tournament — and at times they were dominated by the lesser opponent in that Curacao side. Manager Juan Carlos Osorio has changed his lineup significantly in each of the three matches so far in this event which has impacted in the ability of these younger players to develop chemistry. Mexico has scored only five combined goals in this tournament. But the encouraging sign for El Tri has that they have allowed only one goal so far in this tournament. Goalkeeper Jesus Corona was outstanding on Sunday with four saves including spectacular ones that preserved that clean sheet. Corona was on the roster of the “A-Team” that played in last month’s Confederation’s Cup. Corona is still fighting to earn the starting job on next year’s World Cup team so he should be on his game tonight.
Honduras (1-0-1) qualified as one of the two third place squads in the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 0-0 draw with Canada last Friday. Los Catrachos earned their one victory with a forfeit over French Guinana who used a player that CONCACAF had not cleared to be able to play for the Honduras National Team. In practice, that 3-0 result for Los Catrachos was actually a 0-0 draw with the small island nation. Honduras has yet to score in this tournament but they have only allowed one goal. Manager Jorge Luis Pinto deploys a counter-attacking style so the game plan against Mexico will be to attempt to steal a low scoring contest. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total (2.5) in the match between Honduras (47365) and Mexico (47366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-17 |
United States v. Nicaragua UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (10314) and the USMNT (10313). The USMNT (1-1-0) will not know what result they need until the conclusion of the Panama-Martinique contest that is the first Gold Cup match in Cleveland this afternoon. The Stars and Stripes are tied with Panama with 4 points in Group B play — and they have the tie-break advantage with four goals scored as compared to the three goals scored by Panama in these games. It may very well be the case that the Americans will be happy to play conservative to ensure the 1 point from a draw. One likely event for tonight is better play from goalkeeper Brad Guzan. Guzan allowed two soft goals on Wednesday in the USMNT’s 3-2 victory over Martinique. Guzan is a quality keeper and should play better tonight. The Yankees have allowed three goals in these games while scoring four times — which makes the 3 1/2 Total for this match seemingly a bit high. Perhaps the Total has been moved up given the possible need for the USA to score goals to ensure first place in Group B. But this team is not playing with much cohesion having little experience playing with each other. Manager Bruce Arena is using this tournament to give playing time to his entire roster as an audition for next summer’s World Cup.
Nicaragua (0-0-2) lost their second straight match in this Gold Cup with their 2-1 setback to Panama on Wednesday. Los Pinoleros have only scored once in this tournament. And while they have demonstrated vulnerabilities on defense, their best chance for a victory in this match would be to play cautiously and hope to escape with a 1-0 victory. While Nicaragua is desperate for a victory to hold out hope to qualify as one of the two 3rd place entries into the Quarterfinals, they entered this event looking to play aggressively with nothing to lose — and that has only resulted in their one lone goal. 25* FIFA Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (10314) and the USMNT (10313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-17 |
Jamaica v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (24266) and Jamaica (24267). Jamaica (1-0-0) stepped up with two goals in the second half on Sunday to secure a 2-0 victory over a Curacao side that had defeated them less than three weeks ago in the Finals of the Caribbean Cup. With 3 points under their belts, the Reggae Boyz are in a very good position to advance to the Knockout Stage — and the point they would secure from a draw would be very valuable. This is a team that thrives on playing cautious with most of their players protecting the back end. Jamaica boasts three strong defenders in Jermaine Taylor, Alvas Powell and Kemar Lawrence who all star in the MLS. Furthermore, the Reggae Boyz have an outstanding goalkeeper in Andrew Blake was awarded the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Award in 2016. Blake was sensational on Sunday in that match with Curacao as he made six saves against them including three that were Sports Center worthy.
Mexico (1-0-0) might be content with a draw (1-1?) as well after their 3-1 victory over El Salvador on Sunday. That match was a bit nervy for El Tri early until they exposed a vulnerability on defense of Los Cuscatlecos. That is not a weakness from which the Reggae Boyz also suffer. This is a difficult match for Mexico as they tend to struggle against teams that have a direct style with a quick pace that Jamaica does. Mexico dominated El Salvador by controlling the ball for 66.3% of that match. And while El Tri did defeat the Reggae Boyz in the 2015 Finals of the Gold Cup by a 3-1 score, that match involved the best of what the Mexican National team has to offer while this roster is made of their B-team of younger players looking to prove themselves worthy of their 2018 World Cup squad. Expect a lower scoring match. 25* FIFA Gold Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (24266) and Jamaica (24267). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-17 |
Mexico v. Germany OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
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At 2:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (48779) and Germany (48780). Mexico (2W-1D-0L) is an underdog in this Semifinals match against the German B (or C) team. And while El Tri has a history of disappointments on the big international teams outside of North America, this side has proven themselves resilient. Mexico has trailed in all three of their Group Stage matches — yet they managed to pull out two wins and one draw in all three contests. They fell behind 1-0 to Russia last Saturday but then scored the 30th and 52nd minute to pull out that 2-1 victory. They have scored two goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. But defense has been an issue for this squad. They have given up four goals in this tournament including one in each of their three matches which includes a weak New Zealand side. Not only has their back end been too leaky at times, but they have struggled when facing a high-pressing team — and that is exactly the German style of play. To compound matters, their captain and glue in the midfield Andres Guardado will be out for this match after earning a second Yellow Card versus Russia.
Germany (2W-1D-0L) clinched first place in Group B play with their 3-1 victory over Cameroon on Sunday. Die Mannschaft was flat in the first half in that match in a 0-0 score but flexed their offensive muscles in the second half by scoring three times. Their seven goals in this event tied with Portugal for most goals scored during the Group Stage. But defense remains an issue for this team as well — they allowed a goal in the 81st minute to Cameroon despite the Indomitable Lions playing with only ten men after a Red Card was issued. Like Mexico, Die Mannschaft does not have any clean sheets in this tournament — and they surrendered two goals to an Australian side not know for their offensive prowess. Yesterday’s Semifinals match evolved into a defensive struggle between top of the top five teams in the world. Neither of these teams possess that level of quality. Expect at least three goals to be scored in regulation time with the respective offenses dictating the tempo of the match. 25* FIFA Confederations Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Mexico (48779) and Germany (48780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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