04-06-23 |
Joaquin Niemann v. Justin Rose -130 |
|
71-69 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. Rose last played three weeks ago when he settled for a tie for 36th place at the PGA Valspar Championship — but he remains in good form. He finished in a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship — and he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational in January. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy and rainy conditions that might be on the way this weekend — and he will probably avoid any afternoon rain on Friday with his early tee time after going off late on Thursday. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 22nd in Shots-Gained: Total. He has gained strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six straight tournaments. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 17th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he is one of the best putters on the tour — and he ranks second in the field for his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens. The 42-year-old knows Augusta National as well as any of his peers this week with this being his 18th trip to play in the Masters. He has six top-ten finishes with two second-place results. He did miss the cut last year — but he finished in seventh place in 2021 and has 11 top-25 finishes in his last 13 Masters. Rose has also finished as the Day One leader four times in his career at this tournament. Rose is linked with Joaquin Niemann in Round One head-to-head props. Niemann is one of the 18 professionals from the LIV Tour playing in this event. He does not appear to be in great form. After an 11th-place finish on the LIV Tour, he has settled for 36th and then 31st places in his last two events — even with the talent pool dropping off when compared to the PGA Tour. I am skeptical about how the LIV players will do this week in the first Masters since the schism took place. The LIV Tour is only 54 holes but without cuts — so the dynamic and endurance required are different. This intangible is mitigated a bit in a Round One prop — but there is still less urgency for all the LIV golfers on Day One since they are guaranteed to play all 54 holes. Second, the LIV Tour is a team event with aggregate scores measured — so it is not individual stroke play. Third, I am not sure how all these LIV golfers will react to being seen as outsiders crashing the gate. Niemann is on record saying that “they hate us” when talking about how the PGA Tour pros feel about those who left for the LIV Tour. Maybe the Patrick Reeds of the world revel in being hated, but guys like Niemann may feel uncomfortable. Lastly, the appeal of the LIV Tour is the guaranteed money they receive — and has that changed the motivational angles for these pros? The top pros on the LIV Tour have not exactly torn things up on that circuit. Cam Smith only left for the LIV Tour after winning the British Open. Like Deshaun Watson underwhelming for the Cleveland Browns after signing a fully-guaranteed free agent deal and even Russell Wilson inking his deal with Denver with our $180 million guaranteed, has the security of all that money simply taken the edge off the LIV pros? Regarding Niemann, the 24-year-old Chilean has not had great success at Augusta National. His best finish was last year when he settled for 35th place. He finished in 40th place in 2021 after missing the cut in his 2018 debut. Take Rose (7148) versus Niemann (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
04-06-23 |
Rory McIlroy v. Jon Rahm +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +850 at DraftKings. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Rahm are the definitive top-three favorites before Jordan Spieth comes in at +1800. I have a few reasons why I am fading Scheffler — mostly because his +650 price is simply too low and clear underlay territory for me. There has not been a repeat champion since Tiger Woods in 2002 — so there appears to be an added disadvantage of dealing with defending champion responsibilities that add to the burden of winning this event. Frankly, I think Rahm is the best golfer in the world — and he will be very motivated to win his first green jacket. It was only a month ago when Rahm was generally considered the best player in the world after winning five tournaments in a nine-event stretch. He has three victories on the PGA Tour in 2023 — the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express, and then the Genesis Invitational — with two of those tournaments now elevated events with a higher purse for the winner (the PGA Tour’s response to the pressure put on them by the competing LIV Tour). Some bettors were spooked by Rahm shooting a pair of 76s over the weekend at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I still took Rahm for The PLAYERS Championship — but, unfortunately, he had to withdraw due to a stomach bug. It happens. Rahm then did not advance out of the group stage play in the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago — but I am simply not going to read much into Match Play results. This is, by far, the biggest tournament of the year so far for 2023. Rahm enters this event leading the field in Adjusting Scoring, Par-Breakers, and Par-3 Scoring. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 17th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, and 12th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is second in the field in Shots-Gained at Augusta National in his last 24 rounds. He has accrued at least +2.0 shots-gained versus the field in 10 of his last 20 rounds at Augusta National. Rahm has never finished worse than 27th place in his six previous trips to the Masters. He has registered four top-tens. Finally, since 2016 amongst the 30 pros to play at least 20 rounds, he is only one of two professionals (Hideki Matsuyama) to have gained strokes versus the field in each of his rounds. Rahm is linked with McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. With four victories in the last ten months, McIlroy remains a very popular choice. But everybody’s favorite has not won a major championship since 2014. So while Barack Obama began dealing with the ramifications of the final midterm elections in his second Presidential term to four years of Donald Trump to more than two years of Joe Biden, while others have been whiffing on McIlroy at a major championship, we have (mostly) looked elsewhere. I will probably continue this approach until if and when McIlroy proves me wrong at a major. His second-place finish at the Masters last year impressed many observers — but his great Sunday came after he was already out of the tournament so the pressure was off. If he is in contention, I have faith that he will find a way to blow it at a major championship … again. McIlroy has recently changed his driver and his putter — and the results at the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago were very encouraging. But see my earlier remarks about match-play tournaments. And I just don’t love any pro making significant equipment changes before a major. McIlroy’s putter is letting him down this season — he ranks 175th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. McIlroy also ranks only 140th in Greens In Regulation for ’22-23 — and seven of the last eight winners at the Masters finished in the top seven that week in Greens In Regulation. Take Rahm (7004) versus McIlroy (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Rahm at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
04-06-23 |
Cameron Young v. Sungjae Im +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Im has the ball-striking and short-game skills to put on a green jacket. It was these attributes that helped him finish tied for second place in his debut at Augusta National in the November 2020 event (pushed back from April because of COVID). Im missed the cut then in April of 2021 but he bounced back with a tie for eighth place last year. Now in his fourth trip to Augusta, Im can start building on his past experiences here with the Masters being perhaps the tournament where course history gives a player the biggest edge (everything else being equal, which it never is). Im is in good form with a 21st place or better in six of his last eight events. He followed up an impressive sixth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship with a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championship Match Play event. This course rewards golfers who thrive with their second shot — and Im has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in seven straight stroke play events. And if IM misses the green, he ranks fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Im is one of the most well-rounded golfers on the tour. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Im is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Young comes off a second place at the WGC Match Play event two weeks ago which was his best finish this season. His only top-ten at a strokes play event in 2023 was his tenth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished in a tie for 51st place at the PLAYERS Championship last month. I like Young and have invested in him several times in the last year — but he is not a good fit for Augusta National in similar ways Bryson DeChambeau has struggled at this event with no top-20 finishes. Young is also a big hitter who ranks third on the tour this season in Driving Distance — and that helps him rank 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But when Tiger Woods was having success at Augusta National early in his career, he was hitting fairways. Young ranks 141st in Driving Accuracy this season. While missing the fairway does not result in a disadvantage when it comes to the rough, the challenge to hit the green remains. The name of the game this week is finding the strategic angles to set up those second shots — and that is not Young’s game (as opposed to Im). If Young misses his second shot, he will be in trouble. He ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 155th in Scrambling. He then ranks 86th in Shots-Gained: Putting. This is Young’s only second trip to Augusta National so he lacks significant experience. He missed the cut at the Masters last year. Take Im (7028) versus Young (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-hear props (and grab Im at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
03-30-23 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Corey Conners +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Connors who is listed at +2500 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Connors earned his 8th top-25 finish for the 2022-23 season last week with his tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But without a top-ten this season, Connors could use a good week and the payday. He has qualified for the Masters next week so he can focus his energies on winning this event again after using his 2019 victory here at TPC San Antonio to qualify for the Masters that next week. In all, Connors has made all four cuts when competing at this event with an average score of 69.81. Commented Connors about his affinity for this tournament: “My natural shot seems to fit really well on a lot of these holes, which I like. That's why I like the golf course so much." Connors is one of the best ball-strikers in the field this week. He ranks second in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds — and he ranks fourth in the field this week in Ball-Striking in his last 24 rounds. Connors is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hatton is one of my favorites on the tour — but this is not a good week to back him even if he has the shortest odds to win. Hatton injured his hand last week at the Match Play event where he lost all three of his matchups. I would not be surprised if he withdrew from the event before it concludes. Hatton’s eyes are set on Augusta National next week — so even if he plays all four rounds, he is not likely to push it. And this is his first time here at TPC San Antonio so he lacks course familiarity relative to his peers. Take Connors (7002) versus Hatton (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Connors at +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-23 |
Si Woo Kim -112 v. Rickie Fowler |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win this tournament is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Kim won the PGA Sony Open in January — and he has registered seven top-40 finishes in his last eight events after a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play tournament last week. Kim is a good ball-striker who deserves his short odds this week given the depleted field the week before the Masters. Kim ranks third in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so his length and his ball-striking should put him in position for birdies. And while this tournament has ranked in the top-13 for most difficult in reaching Greens-In-Regulation, Kim ranks 24th on the tour in Scrambling. Kim ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season. After missing the cut in his first trip here in 2016, Kim has made all five cuts since with four top-25 finishes including a tie for 4th place in 2019. And I like that Kim has already qualified for the Masters next week which will not put added pressure on him to compete this week. That is not the case for Rickie Fowler who must hoist the first-place trophy to earn his right to go back to Augusta National to compete. Fowler is playing better golf lately with nine straight cuts made with six top-20s. But this guy remains perpetually overrated after many near misses at major tournaments over the last decade. But Fowler has not actually won a PGA tournament since the WM Phoenix Open in 2019. He ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he is 70th in Scrambling. He has two 17th-place finishes at this event — but I don’t think the extra pressure this week does him any favors. Take Kim (7003) versus Fowler (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-23 |
Alexander Noren v. Cameron Davis +0.5 |
|
70-80 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Cam Davis had made the cut in 13 of 14 PGA Tour events after a tie for 32nd place at the PGA Sony Open in January. But Davis then missed five straight cuts this season. He later confessed during the PLAYERS Championship that he had been battling an illness during that stretch that impacted his game. I think Davis deserves the benefit of the doubt after finishing tied for 6th place at TPC Sawgrass with the PLAYERS considered the unofficial “fifth” major for the competitors on the PGA Tour. He was then in fine form last week at the WGC Match Play Invitational where he finished 2-1-0 in his three matches. He registered 11 birdies in his final two matches against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise. Davis leads the field this week in Par 5 Scoring in his last 24 rounds — and that will be critical for success this week. Five of the last six winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in Par 5 Scoring with the lone exception being last year when JJ Spaun finished 12th in Par 5 Scoring. Distance matters this week given the length of the course — and going long offers an advantage if the wind is going to keep many of the pros off the fairway. Davis ranks 16th on the tour this season with a Driving Distance average of 310.1 yards. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — even with his earlier struggles with illness. This is his third trip here after making the cut for the first time three years ago. Davis is linked with Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren makes his debut at TPC San Antonio which puts him at a competitive disadvantage with Davis. His game does not match up well with the challenges the course will offer. Noren is just 79th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee ranking to 176th on the tour. Noren’s ball-striking has been questionable this season as well. He ranks 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 89th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks only 144th in Par 5 Scoring. Noren’s form has not been great as well. After missing the cut at the PLAYERS Championship earlier this month, he finished tied for 52nd place at WGC Match Play Invitational last week. Take Davis (7140) versus Noren (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Davis at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Justin Rose +0.5 |
|
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough is as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win the tournament is on Justin Rose who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Rose is intriguing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Rose is in very good form right now coming off a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship last week. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational last month. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy conditions. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 18th in Shots-Gained: Total. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 16th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he ranks 5th in the field this week in Good Drives Gained in his last 24 rounds. He has made the cut at this tournament in seven of his 11 appearances with five top-15s. Rose is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Round One head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship last week which was the third time in his last five events that he failed to qualify for the weekend. Fitzpatrick’s iron play is letting him down — he ranks 168th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season. This is the wrong course to enter struggling with one’s second shot. Take Rose (7138) versus Fitzpatrick (7137) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Tommy Fleetwood -120 v. Brian Harman |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Fleetwood is enticing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Fleetwood was in 4th place going into Sunday of the PLAYERS Championship before a disappointing final round which led to him settling for 27th place. But there is still much for him to take from that effort after gaining his most strokes in the Approach on a PGA Tour event since the 2018 Honda Classic. He gained +5 strokes versus the field in Approach last week. Fleetwood has had several near-misses at major championships — but he has yet to win a PGA Tour event. The Englishman is well-versed in dealing with windy conditions. He ranks 22nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. That bodes well for him this week since the last six winners of this tournament finished the week in the top six in that metric. Six of the last eight winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 16th place in his debut at this tournament last year while gaining +3.9 strokes with his putter. Fleetwood is linked with Brian Harman in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Harman is simply not in good form right now. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events with his best showing since January 15th being last week when he finished tied for 44th place at The PLAYERS Championship. Harman’s ball striking is what is letting him down. He ranks 81st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and an even worse 138th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and this is the wrong course to be wild with one’s driver and irons, especially with the wind. Take Fleetwood (7015) versus Harman (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Nick Taylor -120 v. Tyler Duncan |
|
72-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough can be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Nick Taylor who is listed at +6000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Taylor tees off at 1 PM ET on Thursday which gets him an early tee time on Friday which will give him an edge by avoiding perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. He should be feisty this week after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut again at The PLAYERS Championship last week. Taylor did finish tied for 7th play at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January — and he finished in 2nd place at the WM Phoenix Open last month. Taylor is one of the better putters on the tour. He ranks a very solid 23rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — helped by his ranking 23rd this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is a two-time winner on the tour who could benefit from the lighter field this week after a string of highly competitive fields. Taylor plays lots of events — and he is very familiar with this course having played it seven times in his career. He has made the cut here four times with two top-24 finishes. Taylor is linked with Tyler Duncan in Round One head-to-head props. Duncan followed up a 3rd place at the Honda Classic with a 54th place last week at The PLAYERS Championship — but he has missed the cut in nine of his 14 events for the 2022-23 season. Ball striking is critical at this event with the narrow fairways — but this is not his strength. Duncan ranks 146th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season — and he is 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Duncan plays this event for the fifth time in his career with 25th place being his best result — but he has missed the cut twice. Take Taylor (7135) versus Duncan (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-23 |
Viktor Hovland -147 v. Jordan Spieth |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The average score last year was 72.619 per round. The challenges are numerous with 88 bunkers' water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass oversewed with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Hovland has four top-20s in 2023 after coming off a good effort at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished tied for 10th place. He gained +6.5 shots Off-the-Tee and then another +3.7 shots in his Approach versus the field last week. In his last three tournaments, he has gained +5.3, +6.0, and +10.0 strokes from his Ball-Striking respectively. Hovland is 7th on the PHA Tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he finished last season 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. When Hovland gets going, he is as good ball0-strike as there is on the tour as he demonstrated last summer when he finished 4th at the British Open. Last year at this tournament when he finished tied for 9th, Hovland led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Driving while finishing second in Fairways Hit and Green-In-Regulation. The weakness in his game is around the green if he does not reach the putting surface in regulation — he ranks 169th this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. But that is not as big an issue on this course. In last year’s event, only four of the top-21 finishers gained more than 0.5 shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Hovland is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth finished 4th last week at TPC Sawgrass for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Did he pull that off despite a third-round score of 74 — or is there always something holding Spieth back at this point in his career? After being on Spieth for a spell of tournaments two years ago, he frustrated me by too often muffing key shots or putts when in contention. He finished tied for 62nd last week in Greens-In-Regulation despite his prowess with his irons. It’s just always something. Spieth ranks 77th on the tour this season in Shots Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 88th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and TPC Sawgrass is a course that punishes mistakes given all the water and bunkers. Spieth finished 4th at this event in his debut back in 2014 — but he has not cracked the top 40 since while missing the cut in four of his seven career appearances here. Take Hovland (7021) versus Spieth (7022) on Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|