10-04-18 |
Colts +11 v. Patriots |
|
24-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Frank Reich made a questionable decision to go for it on 4th down on their side of the field in overtime which they failed to convert. That left just enough time left for Deshaun Watson to complete a pass to give his team the opportunity to kick the game-winning field goal. The Colts may very well wish they had the tie on their final record rather than a loss as the playoff race heats up — especially with more and more of these overtime games ending in ties given the shortening of the extra time to just ten minutes. But Reich’s aggressive decision may have served to galvanize the locker room around him which will pay dividends moving forward. As it is, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 3 points or less. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been outstanding so far this season after missing all of last year with his bevy of injuries. Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes as he is almost single-handedly carrying this team. The Indianapolis defense did allow 466 total yards to the Texans as they averaged 6.05 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after they allowed at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Moving forward, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two straight games. Indy has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games the road — and they are a decisive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on Thursday Night Football. New England got back to their winnings ways last week — but there are still concerns about this team. The offense lacks credible down-the-field targets — and tight end Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The offense is averaging only 337.2 total YPG — and the Patriots are being outgained by -10.2 net YPG this season. Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, New England only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed as a favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are being asked to lay too many points on a short week. The Colts have lost two straight games but they those setbacks were by just seven combined points. Luck should help keep his team competitive and within single digits in this contest. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Colts v. Patriots UNDER 52 |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-108 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots got back to their winning ways by running the football — they ran the ball 40 times of 175 yards led by their rookie running back Sony Michel who contributed 112 yards on 25 carries. This helped New England generate 449 yards of offense overall while having them control the clock for 36:22 minutes of that game. The Patriots have 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. This effort should renew some confidence for this team — but after failing to meet point spread expectations, they should appreciate that they still have little margin for error. Running the football to burn time off the clock protects the defense which has been a key part of the Patriots’ success over the years. They are once-again playing “bend but don’t break” defense as they are allowing only 21.0 PPG despite surrendering 348.0 total YPG. Moving forward, New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tom Brady may not have the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski who is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. While Julian Edelman returns from his four-game suspension, a limited Gronkowski leaves this Pats’ offense without credible down-the-field threats (with the adjective “credible” serving to exclude the recently acquired Josh Gordon). New England has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of October — and in their last 5 appearances for Thursday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous two games. The Colts have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Andrew Luck offered a rebuttal to those critics that were wondering “what was wrong” with him (after head coach Frank Reich chose to have backup Jacoby Brissett throw a long Hail Mary pass the previous week) by completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes against the Texans defense. But Luck’s weapons are injured with his favorite tight end Jack Doyle out for this game with a hip injury and his top wide receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton doubtful with a hamstring. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts defense surrendered a whopping 466 yards to Houston in that overtime loss — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy does get running back Robert Turbin back on offense which should help their ground game along with the advance of their goal of burning time off the clock to keep Brady off the field. Lastly, Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set past the 50-point threshold as the oddsmakers adjust for the spike in passing numbers which has led to an increase in scoring, expect this game to finish below that number. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 |
|
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs raced out to a 35-10 lead at halftime last week against the 49ers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after leading by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The seeds of impending trouble for this team may have sown in the second-half of that contest as they were outscored by the 49ers by a 17-3 margin. Kansas City generated 384 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chiefs are struggling to find balance as they are averaging only 103 rushing YPG (just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry) after only managing 77 yards on the ground against San Francisco. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have scored at least 38 points in all three of their games so far this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in each of their last three games. And while Mahomes has passed for 322 and 307 yards in his last two starts, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. While the Chiefs offense is clicking, the same cannot be said for their defense that ranks third to the bottom in the league in points allowed (30.7 PPG), total defense (474 YPG) and Yards-Per-Play Allowed (6.7 YPP). Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the first month of the season. This team has had this night circled on their calendar considering that they have lost five straight meetings with the Chiefs while also losing their last three opportunities to host Kansas City in Denver. They also were the first team to get first-hand experience against Watson as he made his first professional start last year on what resulted in a 27-24 win for the Chiefs back on December 31st. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Kansas City offense is bound to come back to Earth at least somewhat — and the Chiefs defense and offensive line remain concerns. Expect the Broncos to play Kansas City very tough. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-50s for this game given the dynamic play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is leading an offense that is scoring 39.3 PPG. He led the Chiefs to score 42 points in their previous game in Pittsburgh — but Kansas City has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while the Chiefs have played all three of their games Over the Total this year, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. KC has generated 449 and 384 yards in each of their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs only rushed the ball for 77 yards last week — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 178 rushing yards to the 49ers — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The game plan for Vance Joseph’s team will likely be to run the football to shorten the game and limit the number of offensive possessions that Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense will have in this game. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have combined to rush for 350 yards — and they join Devontae Booker to form a potent committee of running backs to take the pressure off their QB Case Keenum. But this Broncos offense has scored only 34 combined points over their last two games. Denver did limit the Ravens to rush for only 77 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: As last night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown demonstrated, it does not take much for what looks like an offensive shootout to slow down enough to finish below a combined points total in the 50s. Denver has to run the football to win the Time of Possession battle — and their zeal to accomplish that task should ensure this game finishing below the Total. 25* NFL AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 |
|
26-14 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games played on a short week Over the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are second in the NFL by averaging 453.3 YPG. But the Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. They allowed 455 yards of offense Monday to the Buccaneers — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 7 points or less. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against fellow AFC North opponents. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG — and that may be scaring some bettors to take the Under. Remember that Baltimore has generated those numbers against Buffalo (with Nathan Peterman at QB), Cincinnati and the Broncos last week who are not exactly the reincarnation of the Bill Walsh 49ers’ offenses. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. The Ravens go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total while also playing 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two heated rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Ravens +3 v. Steelers |
Top |
26-14 |
Win
|
103 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Browns v. Raiders -1 |
Top |
42-45 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Jets v. Jaguars -7 |
|
12-31 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 9-6 loss to Tennessee last week as a 10-point favorite. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from a 21-17 loss in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville suffered a big emotional letdown last week after earning a small measure of revenge in their previous game against New England who defeated them in the AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Blake Bortles has improved — but it is evident that when he lowers his intensity, he becomes a below-average quarterback. The Jaguars managed only 232 yards of offense last week with Bortles passing for just 155 yards. Jacksonville should respond from that wake-up call last week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The team does look to get their star running back Leonard Fournette back for this game which will take some of the pressure off Bortles. This remains a team that is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense by holding their opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have allowed only three offensive touchdowns which is the fewest in the NFL. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against fellow AFC opponents. New York had a 14-point lead at halftime against the Browns but a -3 net turnover margin eventually led to their downfall. Now this team stays on the road for the second straight week where they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are still relying too much on a quarterback in Sam Darnold who is averaging 33 pass attempts per game. The rookie has showed flashes of brilliance but remains inexperienced. The Jets have also been slow starters this year as they have scored only 7 points in their three opening quarters this year — and that is a daunting number when facing this outstanding defense that becomes even more difficult when their opponents are playing from behind. Dealing with the Florida heat will also be an issue for this team that lacks depth. As it is, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of September. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, New York has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars’ defense always shows up — and that spells trouble for Darnold and this subpar Jets’ offense. But with Fournette returning and Bortles embarrassed from last week’s game, this should be a blowout. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Bills v. Packers -9 |
|
0-22 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-2) enters this game coming off a 27-6 upset win in Minnesota where they were big 16.5-point underdogs. Green Bay (1-1-1) looks to rebound from their 31-17 upset loss at Washington last Sunday as 2.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills caught the Vikings napping last week as they might have been looking ahead to their Thursday night showdown with Minnesota. Buffalo played very hard to earn that victory — but it is difficult to maintain that high level of focus and energy for two straight weeks. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit victory as a road underdog getting at least 6 points. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Bills raced out to that 27-0 halftime lead to shellshocked Minnesota, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. This will be rookie Josh Allen’s first professional start in a hostile environment. He leads an offense that is scoring less than 17 PPG. And while the defense played well last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Green Bay surrendered 386 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Skins. The Packers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Aaron Rodgers did participate in more practice this week with his sprained ACL being an injury that will get better over time. He should be better this week — and he has won eleven of his twelve starts at home against AFC opponents unfamiliar with him and Lambeau Field. Rodgers has not thrown an interception this season — and he owns a career 60-15-1 record at Lambeau. While those straight-up numbers do not take into account the point spread, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay should bounce-back with a strong effort with the benefit of home-field advantage again at Lambeau Field. Buffalo will struggle to score enough points to keep up with Rodgers. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
Vikings +7.5 v. Rams |
|
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a 27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota got caught napping last week as they perhaps began reading their own press clippings a bit too much. They should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Head coach Mike Zimmer has been vocal about the challenge his team faces about traveling out west on a short week to face a team that got to stay at home after their Week Three game. But this is why the Vikings are getting about a touchdown in this game as an underdog — and Zimmer has studied the best methods to handle this tough part of the schedule with the conclusion that getting his team into Los Angeles on Tuesday put his team in the best position to succeed. I expect Minnesota to play well by embracing this “us against the world” mentality. There are a few things the Vikings will want to do better in this game. First, they need to get off to a better start after trailing Green Bay by a 17-7 score at halftime two weeks ago before going into the locker rooms at halftime last week with a shocking 27-0 deficit to the winless Bills. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after trailing by double digits in each of their last two games. Second, the Vikings need to get more production out of their ground game after rushing the ball only six times last week for a mere 14 yards. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to generate at least 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not even rushing for 30 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Vikings have still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the month of September despite failing to win games as the favorite in their last two games. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends). Los Angeles generated 521 yards in their victory over the Chargers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This Rams team enters Week Four with some difficult injuries to overcome which is a relatively new phenomenon for this franchise that has led the NFL in the previous two seasons with games lost by prospective starters to injury. LA might be without both their new starting cornerbacks duo this season with Aqib Talib going on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf injury. Starting interior linebacker Mark Barron is also listed as questionable with an ankle which might leave their vulnerable linebacking corps even thinner for this game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games for Thursday Night Football.
FINAl TAKE: The Vikings dominated this matchup last year with their 24-7 win over the Rams back on November 19th. While LA is motivated by revenge, laying up to the touchdown for this game is probably too much to ask against an uber-talented and now angry Minnesota team. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 50 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-126 |
29 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a 27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams defense has been outstanding this season by allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 296.0 total YPG. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries in their secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib out with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf issue. But with Aaron Donald and now Ndamukong Suh leading an outstanding defensive line, the Rams defense is not giving opposing quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw the ball down field. The Rams were 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks last season without Suh — the former Dolphins’ defensive tackle along with Donald accounted for a whopping 68.5 pressures on the quarterback last year. Los Angeles did allow 7.12 Yards-Per-Play to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Rams outgained the Chargers by +165 net yards after dominating Arizona the previous week by outgaining them by +295 net yards. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net YPG. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (1-1-1) has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Vikings only ran the ball six times in that game for 14 yards with their star running back Dalvin Cook dealing with a hamstring injury that he leaves him questionable for this game being played on a short week. Minnesota is getting solid production from their new quarterback Kirk Cousins who completed 40 of 55 passes for 296 yards in that loss — but Mike Zimmer has to be displeased with his run-to-pass ratio as a defensive-minded head coach. Look for the Vikings to attempt to win this game on the line-of-scrimmage — which will burn time off the clock — as they did last year when the dominated these Rams by a 24-7 score where they only allowed 254 yards of offense. Minnesota is holding their opponents to only 323.0 total YPG - but this number could get even better moving forward when considering that the Vikings led the NFL by holding their opponents to only 275.9 total YPG last year. Zimmer’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game when the Vikings passed for at least 250 yards. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the underdog. And in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Vikings have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends).
FINAL TAKE: This game might be a preview of a future showdown between these two teams in the NFC Playoffs (perhaps the NFC Championship Game). On a short week, I think both head coaches will try to impose their will while sending a message about who is the tougher team by winning a game fought in the trench warfare. That style of play should help this game finish lower-scoring than expected. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-18 |
Steelers +1.5 v. Bucs |
|
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points inter last game. Pittsburgh did outgain the still-undefeated Chiefs in that game by a 475 to 449 margin. Moving forward, the Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 expected close games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Tampa Bay is getting great production out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but their defense remains a grave concern. They allowed Nick Foles to pass for 321 yards en route to the Eagles churning out 412 yards of offense. The Buccaneers are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Injuries are already ravaging this defensive unit with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves on Injured Reserve while rookie defensive tackle Vita Vea is out with a calf injury and cornerback Brent Grimes questionable with a groin. Tampa Bay had to rely on two rookie cornerbacks (M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis) as their starters last week. They survived Foles and Philadelphia with that game finishing above the 46.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Fitzpatrick is 0-5 as a starting quarterback when facing this Steelers team. Lastly, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Fitzpatrick has been great — but his defense has too many injuries right now. Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-18 |
Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are heavily dependent on Big Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game with running back Le’Veon Bell still holding out. More passing generally means more stoppage of play which leads to more plays and possessions on offense with more scoring opportunities for both teams. The opposite dynamic was in play last night with Detroit committed to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. Pittsburgh will likely prepare to play a high-scoring game tonight. The Steelers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Roethlisberger tossed 60 passes last week — completing 39 of them for 452 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that totaled 475 yards overall. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But the Pittsburgh defense surrendered 449 yards to the Chiefs in that loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh really misses their injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. They have allowed 29.0 PPG since his scary neck injury last year after holding their previous seven opponents to only 17.7 PPG in Shazier’s last seven games with the team. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career as he has passed for more than 400 yards while tossing four TD passes in each of his first two games. With a questionable running game and two rookie cornerbacks starting in the secondary given injuries to incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, the Buccaneers formula for success will likely remain to be relying on Fitzpatrick’s arm. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But defense remains a vulnerability of this team after allowing the Eagles to accumulate 412 yards last week — and they have played 11 go their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Like last night’s New England-Detroit contest also had a high Total above the 50-point threshold. Handicapping Over/Unders requires an appreciation for the expected tempo of the game in question. While I expected the Lions to fully commit to running the football last night which serves to decrease the number of offensive plays and possessions for both teams, the Steelers and Buccaneers are likely to attempt plenty of passes tonight which has the opposite effect. Expect a shootout between these two teams in a league that is seeing higher scores. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Patriots v. Lions +7 |
|
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has not looked very organized in their first two games under rookie head coach Matt Patricia. Their opening week loss at home to a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold and the New York Jets was a nightmare. The Lions then had a difficult challenge to then head out west to face another team in the 49ers who also lost their opening game. Detroit outgained San Francisco by a 427 to 346 margin but returned home still winless in the Patricia era. Now with rumors of the veteran players rebelling against Patricia’s attempt to impose disciple and an increased work effort, this Lions team looks to be on the brink of a complete meltdown. What’s new in Detroit? But I think this team fits nicely into the ole “wounded animal” theory and I expect them to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall while rallying around their head coach who has something to prove against his former team with which he won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator. QB Matthew Stafford played one of his worst games as a professional in that loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football as he threw five interceptions while too often looking lost in the pocket. But he rebounded nicely last week by completing 34 of his 53 passes for 347 yards while tossing three touchdown passes and no interceptions against the 49ers last week. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. All is not lost with this team just yet as they have won nine games in each of their last two seasons. Talent exists on both sides of the football for this team. New England reaches the Super Bowl once again last year but there are certainly cracks in their armor as they only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Jaguars dominated the yardage battle last week by outgaining the Patriots by a 480 to 302 margin. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. It is asking an awful lot of any team to cover the point spread on the road laying almost a touchdown. As it is, New England has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Expect the Lions to be fired-up at home in front of an energetic crowd with the opportunity to immediately right their proverbial ship by pulling the upset against the blue bloods of the NFL in the Patriots. While Detroit may not win the game, they should keep it close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Patriots v. Lions UNDER 55 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.
REASON TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the storylines of this game is that rookie head coach Matt Patricia will be facing his former team in the Patriots that he previously served as their defensive coordinator. Patricia certainly knows the New England way as well as Tom Brady and the Patriots’ tendencies — and that will help in scheming again his former team. But Patricia also came to the Lions with a mandate to make this team more physical on both sides of the football — and that starts with running the football. So far in Detroit’s first two games, this mission has been lost. The Lions have only rushed the ball 33 times in two games this season with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 52 and 53 passes in their first two games. Well, I think between hell and high water, Patricia is going to commit to his team running the football tonight against his old team — both to finally embrace the blueprint both he and former Patriot brain trust member and now Detroit general manager Bob Quinn both want for this team. Running the football also has the benefit of keeping Brady off the field while also helping his defense by keeping them rested. As it is, the Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing two games where they attempted at least 40 passes. All this passing helped the Lions give up 78 points in their first two games — but they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. Furthermore, while Detroit has surrendered 169 and 190 rushing yards in their first two games, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. The Lions did generate 427 yards last week against the 49ers — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total adder gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New England is not clicking on all cylinders on offense after managing only 302 yards last week against the Jaguars. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. New England did allow 480 yards last week in that loss but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened in the 50 range which was already pretty high — but it has since been bet up to the 55 range in many locations. I consider those additional 5 or so points just added value to a strong Under situation given the zeal the Lions should (finally) show in running the darn football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Bears v. Cardinals +6 |
|
16-14 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) earned their first win of the season on national television on Monday with their 24-17 victory over Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona (0-2) looks to pick themselves off the mat after they were shutout by a 34-0 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS: Arizona has looked like the worst team in the NFL after getting outscored by an embarrassing 58 to 6 mark in their first two games under first-year head coach Steve Wilkes. Expect the Cardinals to play their best game of the young season this afternoon after these awful efforts. Arizona has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after being shutout. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games after losing their previous two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Arizona offense was pathetic last week as they managed only 137 yards of offense against the stout Rams defense. But this Cardinals offense is not nearly as bad as those numbers suggest under veteran quarterback Sam Bradford — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. Arizona needs to play better on both sides of the ball after giving up 342 passing yards and 432 yards overall. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. And in their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points, Arizona has covered the point spread 4 times. Chicago does not deserve to be a road favorite laying close to a touchdown against any of their NFL peers. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The Bears benefited from a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown that ended up being the winning difference against the Seahawks. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of September. And while the Bears defense limited Seattle to just 74 rushing yards in their last game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona is not as bad as their terrible numbers suggest after facing an underrated Washington team before a juggernaut in the Rams last week. It is hard seeing the Bears beating anyone by almost a touchdown when they are playing on the road. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Raiders v. Dolphins -3 |
|
20-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-2) remained winless in the second incarnation of the Jon Gruden era last week when they lost to the Broncos in Denver by a 20-19 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Miami (2-0) is a surprise undefeated team after their upset the Jets in New York last week by a 20-12 score as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. And while QB Derek Carr passed for 288 yards last week, Oakland is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards. Some stats would suggest that the marriage of Gruden with Carr has worked wonders since Carr is completing a magnificent 85% of his passes this season. Yet those passes have too often been an exercise in dink and dunks as the gunslinger has thrown only one touchdown pass this year. Carr has now lost his last six starts while possessing a meager 6:8 touchdown to interception ratio while leading an offense that is scoring only 14 PPG. The defense has registered only two sacks while allowing their opponents to convert on 45% of their third-down opportunities. The Raiders stay on the road where they have lost seven of their last eight games. Oakland is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road while also going only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Even more troubling for this team is that while they are outscoring their opponents by a 25-10 margin in the first half this season, they have been outscored by a whopping 43-7 mark in the second half. That points to poor coaching — and it is a terrible omen for a team that has to travel east to play an early 1 PM ET start with their body clocks still thinking it is 10 AM. Miami started fast last week by seizing a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Jets — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This Miami team entered the season under the radar but I saw potential with a group that head coach Adam Gace felt very good about after the team cleaned house with some of the underachieving egos on the roster. QB Ryan Tannehill has now won nine of this last ten starts as well as going an impressive 17-7 straight-up in his last twenty-four starts. While the Dolphins had only 122 passing yards last week after accounting for sack yardage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: I thought Gruden might see early success before the toll of having so many aging veterans began to expose itself. Instead, things look as bad as the biggest cynics suggested. I hate the travel situation for the Raiders in this game who have relied on fast starts in their first two games — it is typical for west coast teams to start slow when playing out east for the early games. The icing on the cake is that the Dolphins are playing with revenge from a 27-24 loss to Oakland last November. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Colts v. Eagles -6 |
|
16-20 |
Loss |
-101 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 27-21 upset loss in Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last week. Indianapolis (1-1) enters this game coming off a 21-9 upset victory in Washington as a 6-point underdog against the Skins.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss . The big news for this game is that Carson Wentz will return to the field and start this game at quarterback. The offense was not bad last week under Nick Foles who completed 35 of 48 passes for 334 yards while leading the unit to generate 412 total yards. But Wentz is a different breed — and even if he is not 100% from his torn ACL from last year, he is a big upgrade as an offensive weapon. His 33 touchdown passes led the NFL at the time of his Week 13 injury last year. As it is, Philly has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Eagles defense allowed 436 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is missing some weapons at wide receiver and running back — but they are close to full strength on their offensive and defensive lines that I consider the best units in football. That should make the difference in this game. Indianapolis is a M*A*S*H unit already this year. They entered the season with a whopping twelve players on Injured Reserve which is devastating for a franchise that already had significant talent and depth issues. It has since only gotten worse with the following notable starters out for this game: left tackle Anthony Castanzo, tight end Jack Doyle, running back Marlon Mack, cornerback Quincy Wilson, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway. This is terrible news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Colts have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Too many injuries for this Indianapolis team now traveling to face an angry Philly team who proved last year that their depth on the roster was one of the strengths that helped them win the Super Bowl. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
49ers +7 v. Chiefs |
|
27-38 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) returns home for their first game of the season at the new Arrowhead Stadium after their 42-37 upset win at Pittsburgh. San Francisco (1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 win over the Lions at home last week as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I would not respect myself if I did not puts some chips in to invest against the Chiefs with a contrarian play given all the love this team is getting from bettors. Kansas City’s perceived value will never be higher than it is right now after pulling off two straight upset victories on the road with Patrick Mahomes wowing on-lookers (and genius fantasy football enthusiasts) with his video game numbers so far. There will be a learning curve for Mahomes as opposing defensive coaches staffs gather tape on the new offense head coach Andy Reid has designed for his new quarterback. The Chiefs topped their 362 yards of offense in Week One against the Chargers by compiling 475 yards against a perhaps overrated Steelers defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. KC has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in two straight games. Furthermore, what has been lost in the rush to put Mahomes into the Hall of Fame is that the Chiefs abysmal play on defense as they are allowing 32.5 PPG and 508.0 total YPG. Kansas City has surrendered more than 400 passing yards in each of their first two contests which should raise red flags for a defense that severely misses Eric Berry in their defensive backfield. San Francisco probably entered this season overrated after winning their last five games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo perhaps was a harbinger for what Mahomes will soon experience as his incredible numbers have come back down to earth as defenses adapt. But this 49ers team is certainly good enough to stay within a touchdown’s length of most teams even when playing on the road. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: I often tease (sometimes mock) the overblown chatter about sharp and square plays — so-called sharp bettors lose all the time while public “square” bets certainly win enough to keep those bettors engaged. But we want to be invested in conventional “sharp” bets like this with the overwhelming majority of the money going on the Chiefs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Packers v. Redskins +3 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-23-18 |
Saints +2.5 v. Falcons |
Top |
43-37 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 21 m |
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.
THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.
FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-20-18 |
Jets v. Browns -3 |
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17-21 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 12 m |
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a very tough challenge for the Sam Darnold with this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks. To compound matter, this is the rookie’s third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards but don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets are just 1-4-1 in the Jets’ last 6 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while Darnold has led the offense to average 6.12 and 6.03 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games this season, New York has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Now the Jets go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games played on grass, New York is just 3-9-1 in those contests. Cleveland should respond with a strong effort tonight as they continue to play with a chip on their shoulder looking for their first victory since December 24, 2016. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road by no more than a field goal. The Browns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: After playing two playoff teams to tough games with their tie against the Steelers in Week One before their 3-point loss in the Superdome to the New Orleans last week, look for an energized crowd to help the Browns to victory tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-20-18 |
Jets v. Browns UNDER 41 |
Top |
17-21 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets fell behind early in their game with the Dolphins as they went into halftime with a 20-0 deficit. Quarterback Sam Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards — but he also tossed two interceptions. This is a very tough challenge for the rookie since not only is this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks but this is his third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against an AFC East rival. New York has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Jets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Cleveland has played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a loss by less than 6 points. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Darnold did experience trouble with pressure last week against the Dolphins defensive line — so this is a significant area of concern. But the Browns are struggling on the offensive side of the football where their QB Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 10 times. Cleveland has only scored 6 first-half points in their first two games this season which is not a good sign as to how they will start in this game when playing on a short week. The Browns have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half in each of their last two games. They will be facing an underrated Jets’ defense that has held their first two opponents to just 3.38 Yards-Per-Carry. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when favored by 3 points or less. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Total is set around the 40 point range, expect points to be hard to come by from both these teams with strong defenses but limited offenses. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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