At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog. Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago’s defense is holding its opponents to just 19.3 PPG this season. The Bears have not allowed more than 26 points all season — and they have held their last three opponents to less than 20 points. But the Chicago offense is another matter entirely. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Furthermore, the Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Rams surrendered 390 yards last week to the 49ers, but they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has been playing good defense as they have held their opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with 318.5 total YPG. The Rams return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total in October — and the Bears have played 4 straight Unders in October. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning at least three games in a row. Seattle comes off their bye week which means head coach Pete Carroll and his staff has conducted their self-scout regarding what they need to improve. There is no question that the defensive-oriented Carroll made decisions regarding how to improve his defense that is last in the league by allowing 471.2 total YPG. The Seahawks will not have Jamal Adams tonight but they should still play better on that side of the football — even if it means that they do not “Let Russ Cook” as much because they need to run the ball more to protect their defense by keeping them off the field. The fewer plays a defensive player has to make, the fresher he will be later in the game — that is what the coaches say. Seattle has allowed at least 415 yards in all five of their games this season — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. The 27 points that Seattle scored last week were the fewest they have put up on the scoreboard all season. The Seahawks have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Seahawks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Arizona has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals will take a page out of the Vikings’ playbook to run the football to keep Wilson off the field. Seattle was on offense for just 20:32 minutes against Minnesota with the Vikings running the ball 40 times for 201 yards. QB Kyler Murray may get the headlines but Arizona is averaging 30 rushing attempts per game for 161 rushing YPG. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games after they allowed at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This commitment to keeping the running game going has helped the Cardinals rank second in the league by allowing 18.7 PPG. Arizona returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played did not see more than 40 combined points scored in their two divisional meetings last season — and the last 5 clashes in Arizona have all finished Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-2) ha lost two straight games after their 26-17 loss to Kansas City on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog. New York (0-6) remained winless on the season last Sunday with their listless 24-0 loss at Miami as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buffalo offense managed only 206 yards against the Chiefs on Monday. The Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player talk has completely ceased after the Bills have scored only 21.0 PPG over the last three weeks while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. Allen completed just 14 of 27 passes on Monday for 122 yards. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last contests. The Bills’ defense surrendered 466 yards to Kansas City as well — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Buffalo goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Bills have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 6 straight games away from home Under the Total with the total in that 42.5 to 49 range. Playing the Jets may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as their injury-plagued offense is scoring just 12.5 PPG while averaging 276.7 total YPG. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. Joe Flacco was the quarterback last week in getting a shutout — and Sam Darnold is probable to play this afternoon. But with running back Le’ Veon Bell traded to Kansas City, he simply lacks supporting talent at the skill positions. The Jets have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New York has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East foes.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 13th meeting between these two teams which the Bills won by a 27-17 score. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played a decisive 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by no more than a field goal against an NFC East rival. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. The Giants are struggling to score points with running back Saquon Barkley out the season with his torn ACL. New York is scoring just 16.8 PPG while averaging a mere 275.3 total YPG. The Giants leading rusher is QB Daniel Jones — they are 30th in the league by averaging 87.8 rushing YPG. They did pick up Devonta Freeman to be their lead back but he is simply not a threat — his longest carry has gone for only 14 yards. Opposing defenses can lay off the run and use a linebacker to defend against potential passes. But the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles have played two straight Overs where at least 58 combined points were scored. But Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered an ankle injury that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Totals at home laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has the lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Last week’s game finished Under the Total —and the Eagles have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Philly has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then played 7 straight games away from home Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Philly did hold the Bengals to just 48 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total if they did not allow more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 61 games on the road Over the Total — and this tightens to them playing 18 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when they are the underdog. San Francisco has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Niners held the Jets and the Giants to only 3 and 6 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries — Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. But the 49ers are getting healthy on offense with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel upgraded to probable for this game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury but backup Nick Mullens has proven himself to be more than capable of operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a highly proficient rate. Mullens completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 343 yards without all team’s offensive weapons. The Niners generated 420 yards of offense in that game — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 13 games against fellow NFC opponents — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. New York (0-3) has also lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And with their game with the Buccaneers falling below the 42 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Denver offense was a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant — but they did receive good news this week with cornerback Bryce Callahan, strong safety Kareem Jackson, and nose tackle Shelby Harris all upgraded to probable and expected to start tonight. The Broncos have allowed 17 and 23 points in the first half of their first two games — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Denver did hold the Buccaneers to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Broncos surrendered 353 yards overall to Tampa Bay, the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 games. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. And while the Jets allowed the Colts to gain 353 yards last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York managed only 260 yards of offense last week with third-year quarterback Sam Darnold struggling under Adam Gase’s offense. The Jets are scoring only 12.3 PPG this season while averaging 263.7 total YPG. Injuries have not helped Darnold’s cause with running back Le’Veon Bell and rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims both on Injured Reserve and wide receiver Breshard Perriman out with a shoulder injury. Mims and Perriman were new additions this season to jumpstart the Jets’ offense that was 29th in the league by averaging 194.4 passing YPG and totaling just 17.2 PPG which was second-to-last in the NFL.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total when hosting an AFC opponent — and Denver has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the AFC. While the Total is low, this is one of those games where one (or both) of these teams may not reach double-digits. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.

THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.

FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.

TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and  Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.

FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win  — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.