At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (109) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): This is the Super Bowl match I expected when the playoffs — and I felt strongly about what my Side and Total plays would be for this potential matchup before the Conference Championship Games were played. Frankly, my convictions only grew when watching both of those games — and that worried me that I was getting tunnel-visioned. Usually, I post my Super Bowl Side and Total picks by the next day since I am in the zone from so much research — and that approach has been successful. But I decided this year that it would be prudent to marinate on my Super Bowl plays to make sure I was not simply trying to confirm my prior convictions. I have listened to, read, and reconsidered the case to take Philadelphia — while watching line movement — and I just can’t get there to back and invest in the Eagles. Sure, they can win — and they played the Chiefs close two years ago in Super Bowl 57 in a 38-35 l loss. But in the hypothetical ten to 100 matchups between these two teams right now, I suspect that Kansas City wins — and covers the point spread — much more often than the implied odds from the small point spread suggest. For starters, I consider some of the season-long statistics for Philadelphia — many of which trigger empirical angles specific to the Super Bowl — to be skewed. Frankly, the Eagles have enjoyed a fairly easy schedule. Their most impressive victory was a 24-19 win at Baltimore on December 1st in a game where they got outgained by -120 yards while only managing 252 yards of offense. Philly did not play Kansas City or Buffalo or even Minnesota. They dodged a game with Detroit in both the regular season and the playoffs. Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington). Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games after playing two or more games in a row at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, I think — somehow — this Kansas City team remains underrated by the market. Whether it is the 12-0 record in one-score games this season, the hindsight bias regarding the favorable calls from the officials they seem to always get (Michael Jordan’s Bulls had a similar phenomenon), or just the fatigue of this dynasty and all the TV commercials it leads, a common sentiment is that the Chiefs’ “luck” is due to run out. I could not disagree more. I think they are much better than their season-long statistics. In my AFC Conference Championship Game Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points. An underappreciated aspect of that game was that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to their opening playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his postseason game plans. Frankly, this is a different offense in 2025 than it was in 2024. The Chiefs now have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury. Rookie Xavier Worthy is breaking out right in front of our eyes with 11 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. Travis Kelce is peaking right now — and he seems to play better when his girlfriend is in the house. In the last three games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 23 targets with 17 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t forget about the reliable JuJu Smith-Schuster, veteran DeAndre Hopkins, and even running back Samaje Perine in the passing game. As I wrote two weeks ago: “After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days.” Sure enough, Reid had Kansas City back 11 personnel with one running back and three wide receivers. Kelce only had four targets — but this offense has become “pick your poison” again for opposing defenses with all these skill position players at Reid and Mahomes’ disposal. Brown and Worthy are both threats in the deep passing game unlocks everything in the middle. Furthermore, the move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection. The “underwhelming” offensive statistics that this team compiled while only losing one game in which Mahomes started are simply garbage data now in 2025. And don’t forget that the Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense which remains elite (and might be the better unit in this game). Like the New England Patriots with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and even the Seattle Seahawks with Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson (where Carroll just wanted to be in a close game going into the fourth quarter before he “Let Russ Cook” in the passing game and with his legs), winning close games is the darn formula for success for this Kansas City dynasty rather than a function of simplistic “good luck.” They win these games because they don’t make mistakes and beat themselves. They had not committed a turnover in eight straight games before losing a fumble against the Bills. Mahomes waits until “gotta have it” moments to move the ball with his legs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and Reid may end up being the best head coach in the history of the NFL. Coaching matters in games like this. I like Fangio, but he’s not better than Spags. And, by the way, this Chiefs’ offense has spent two years adapting to the Fangio-inspired two-high safety shell looks that initially frustrated Mahomes after Hill left the team. We’ll see how offensive coordinator Kellen Moore does as the likely next head coach for New Orleans. Let’s just say it’s "advantage Kansas City" in terms of offensive coaching. Head coach Nick Sirianni deserves credit for reaching the Super Bowl for the second time in three years — but he’s looking up at Reid. I considered Buffalo in a better position to dethrone the Chiefs two weeks ago: when compared to the Eagles, the Bills were more battle-tested, had come closer to climbing the mountain, and Josh Allen is the better quarterback versus Hurts. Maybe Barkley is the difference-maker for Philly — but scheming winning defensive plays in key moments of big games like five previous Super Bowl victories (two as the defensive coordinator for the NY Giants) is what Spaguolo does.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams — but the opportunity to back Kansas City when not laying a field goal or more is darn near irresistible (and I still waited almost two weeks). With this team on the cusp of making NFL history by being the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, I am not going against Mahomes when the point spread is so small. Mahomes has a 30-4 straight-up record as a starter when playing with extra rest. Mahomes has a 16-2 straight-up record at home or at a neutral site in January and February. In games when the Chiefs are an underdog or favored by no more than a field goal, Mahomes has a 28-9-1 straight-up record. In his 8 games in the postseason when Kansas City is listed in the +/- 2.5-point range, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the win and point spread cover in all 8 contests. Lastly, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 50 of their 73 games in Reid’s tenure when listed in the +/- 3-point range including 16 in those last 21 circumstances. I think the motivation to three-peat is sky-high for this team — it’s why they have lost only one game this season when the starters played. It’s legacy time — and Reid and Spags have saved many of their best tricks for this moment. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (109) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What did the four teams that reached the Conference Championship Games all have in common? Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City were the top four teams in the NFL in fourth-down success rate as each of them converting on at least 70% of their fourth-down attempts. The Chiefs and the Eagles are not shy about going for it on fourth down — and I expect both head coaches to be very aggressive in this game. This aggressiveness should result in fewer punts with both offenses likely to generate points on each of their drives. However, the flip side of this equation is that the occasional failure to convert on fourth down could create short fields for their opponent. Philadelphia gained 459 yards of offense against the Commanders despite quarterback Jalen Hurts being less than 100 percent with the knee injury he suffered the previous week against Green Bay. I worried that his passes would sail high with his front left leg not completely stable. Instead, he completed 20 of 38 passes for 246 yards. With two weeks of rest and recovery, he should be closer to full health. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after a victory by two or more touchdowns. They have played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC. In regards to Kansas City, we were on the Over in the AFC Championship Game. In that Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points with the offense as healthy as they have been all season. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Eagles hold their opponents to 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing more than 5.7 YPA. Philadelphia is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Part of the dynamic in Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one-score games this season is they score just enough points to outlast their opponent. Against a healthy Eagles offense that scored 35 points against them in the Super Bowl two years ago, I suspect that head coach Andy Reid will conclude that it will take at least 30 points to win this game — and that will impact the game script (just like it did in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills). In Reid’s head coaching career in the playoffs when his team was the number one seed and facing a number two seed (like against Buffalo two weeks ago), 4 of those 5 playoff games finished Over the Total — including all three of those games with the Chiefs. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think this is another playoff shootout between these two heavyweights where both quarterbacks will throwing haymakers and scoring touchdowns by the fourth quarter — and there is very good evidence that this kind of games go Over in conference championship games in my Final Take. This is the fourth playoff showdown between these two teams in the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes saga — and the first three games saw 62, 78, and 51 combined points scored. These two teams did play on November 17th in the regular season with Buffalo winning by a 31-20 score. In head coach Andy Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, his teams have played 11 of their 16 opportunities to exact same-season revenge Over the Total. The Bills are going to get their points again. They are scoring 30.7 Points-Per-Game this season while reaching the 30-point threshold 13 times and the 27-point threshold 14 times. They have scored 28.3 PPG in the four playoff games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and the Bills have played 14 of their last 18 games away from home against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of their passes. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Overs away from home against teams winning 75% or more of their games. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days — and, at the very least, that produces a game script friendly to the Over. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — but it has impacted the Chiefs’ inside rushing attack. Running back Isiah Pacheco generates 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry with Thuney at left guard — but at left tackle, Pacheco is only generating 2.8 YPC. Reid knows those numbers — and he knows that the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. That’s Over country. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. If they needed to score more points in those games, they would have. The Chiefs have had three games at home this season with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. All three contests went Over: 27-20 versus Baltimore; 26-25 versus Cincinnati; 30-24 versus Tampa Bay. Those games seem similar to this one — albeit with Kansas City probably needing to score even more points to survive and advance.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these heavyweights are going down without a fight. Reid has played four games in his coaching career where his team was the number one seed playing the number two seed in a conference championship game — and the Over is 3-1 in those two games with a 2-0 mark with the Chiefs. The Bills have played 5 of their 8 playoff games Over the Total as a number two seed (never the top seed) under head coach Sean McDermott. Here’s the kicker: in the last 19 Conference Championship Games between the top two seeds, the Over is 13-5-1. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (104) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (103). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I was high on this Bills team in the preseason since I thought the tactical decision to ask quarterback Josh Allen to do a little less by running the ball more would reap dividends on both sides of the ball. I just think it is too much to ask to beat a great Ravens team and then follow that up by dethroning the two-time defending champions in Arrowhead Stadium. They played nearly a perfect game when it comes to avoiding mistakes — but they did not take many chances either. But Buffalo only gained 273 yards last week — and they got outgained by -43 net yards. They benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. The Chiefs stay at home in what is a very advantageous situational edge. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — and the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. The talk all week in the media about the favorable officiating they seem to always get will probably just add another chip on their shoulder. Kansas City is not 11-0 in one-score games this season after winning the last two Super Bowls because of the referees. They win these games because they don’t make mistakes and beat themselves. They have not committed a turnover in eight straight games. Mahomes waits until “gotta have it” moments to move the ball with his legs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and Reid may end up being the best head coach in the history of the NFL (and he got an extra day of rest and prep for this game — and home teams in the Conference Championship Game who get the extra day of rest versus their opponent are on a 20-7 straight-up run). The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.  

FINAL TAKE: If this game was being played in Buffalo, then perhaps I would conclude that this is finally their time to reach the Super Bowl. But with this team on the cusp of making NFL history by being the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, I am not going against Mahomes when the point spread is so small. Mahomes has a 29-4 straight-up record as a starter when playing with extra rest. When playing with same-season revenge as an underdog or a favorite of up to a field goal, Mahomes’ Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games. When playing at home past November 1st with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees, Mahomes has a 23-2 straight-up record — and when the temperature is no higher than 25 degrees, Kansas City has a 9-1 straight-up record with 7-point spread covers with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a 15-2 straight-up record at home or at a neutral site in January and February. In games when the Chiefs are an underdog or favored by no more than a field goal, Mahomes has a 27-9-1 straight-up record. Lastly, in his seven games in the postseason when Kansas City is listed in the +/- 2.5-point range, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the win and point spread cover in all 7 contests. I think the motivation to three-peat is sky-high for this team — it’s why they have lost only one game this season when the starters played. It’s legacy time. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Kansas City Chiefs (104) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (103). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (102) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (101). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (16-3) has won four games in a row as well as 14 of their last 15 contests after their 28-22 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (14-5) has won seven straight contests after their 45-31 upset win at Detroit as an 8-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Commanders pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the postseason by following up their win at Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round with their second-straight upset win at Detroit. Head coach Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for learning from some mistakes in his Super Bowl run as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He has this team believing they can do anything. And rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is amazing. But it’s not as if this team was dominating their opponents before stunning the Lions. Before their win last week, their previous five victories had all been by just one scoring possession — and New Orleans, Atlanta, and Dallas failed to make the playoffs. Daniels passed for no more than 196 yards in four of those five games — so it’s not like he has been dominant statistically from week-to-week. And while I endorsed and invested in Detroit last week (despite my being skeptical of their Super Bowl chances), I lowered my rating of the play when concluding that the Lions may be ripe for the upset after putting up so many regular season banners like avenging their losses to Dallas and San Francisco (and risking injury by playing the starters) against losing teams this season. Let’s remember that Washington was outgained by -40 net yards after giving up a whopping 521 total yards of offense last week. The +5 net turnover margin was overwhelming. Now they face an Eagles team that has not turned the ball over in four straight games. The Commanders are red hot — but perhaps facing a familiar opponent that has already played them twice in the last ten weeks is the worst-case scenario, especially with a rookie quarterback. Philadelphia has a big edge in this third meeting with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matching wits with Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury deserves plenty of credit for helping to guide Daniels’ success. And he has made some adjustments in the second half that have paid dividends — such as (finally) using wide receiver Terry McLaurin in motion and designing some empty set formations for Daniels in designed running plays. But let’s just say Kingsbury can be slow in making these adjustments (Who am I to talk? It took me five days to finally get this Report done from the beginning of the week. Maybe we are both simply “methodical”?). I will note that Kingsbury benefited from the Thursday mini-bye after the first time these two teams play for Thursday Night Football on November 14th before their actual bye week took play in early December before the rematch. I question Kingsbury’s ability to make effective adjustments on the fly. Fangio is a veteran Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator — and he has the advantage of making the next move to Kingsbury’s adjustments. Fangio blitzed more in the rematch — and the Eagles' 42.4% pressure rate was the fourth-highest the Commanders endured all season. The weather is not doing Washington any favors with the cold temperatures not helping the Daniels’ passing attack (after playing a game indoors and in Tampa Bay the last two weeks). The loss of starting right guard Sam Cosmi complicates things for Kingsbury while giving Fangio more options to attack the Commanders' offensive line that tied for 25th in the league by giving up 55 sacks. Washington may have to double-team defensive tackle Jalen Carter even more after doubling in 53 snaps in the first two meetings — but that takes away a player elsewhere for them and creates more opportunities for Fangio to exploit. Don’t be surprised if the Commanders suffer an emotional letdown this week amidst the challenge of being on the road for the fourth straight game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games on the road this season after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. I suspect Fangio is going to take away McLaurin in the passing game and bank on wide receiver Dyami Brown not being able to beat them down the field. Brown has caught 11 balls for 187 yards in the the two playoff games — but cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quinton Mitchell are significant upgrades in talent he now faces. Fangio rarely spies mobile quarterbacks — but his zone scheme will keep Daniels' rushing threat into account. He is the architect of two-high safety shell concepts that (briefly) frustrated Patrick Mahomes in his first season without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Look for Fangio to dare Daniels to dink-and-dunk him to death — and not make a mistake in far-from-ideal conditions against a defense that has forced 11 turnovers in their last four games. The Commanders will likely play plenty of eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Saquon Barkley and force quarterback Jalen Hurts playing through injuries to beat them himself. But maybe not — Barkley ranked fifth in the NFL by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry against eight-men boxes. Philly’s sophisticated blocking techniques along with the threat Hurts presents with his legs neutralizes much of the tactical benefit of loading the box. Barkley rushed for 296 yards on 55 carries with four rushing touchdowns in the first two meetings. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after winning at home in their last game. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home when favored by up to seven points. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals, they have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season contests with Philly winning the opening game by a 26-18 score before the Commanders got revenge in the rematch on December 22nd by a 36-33 score as a 4-point underdog. Washington trailed by 14 points in that became conducted another fourth quarter rally to steal that game. The third quarter ejection of cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson did play a role in that outcome as the Philadelphia pass defense blew several pass coverages late in that game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC Game of the Year is with the Philadelphia Eagles (102) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-7 win against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite in the wildcard playoff round last Sunday. Baltimore (13-5) has won five games in a row after their 28-14 win against Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Because this is a heavyweight fight, I went back to my original notes from my preseason deep-dives on both teams. The conventional wisdom was this was a rebuilding year for Buffalo — but I was bullish on them. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applauded head coach Sean McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midseason last year. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons — and this sentiment was validated by him throwing only six picks so far this season which is the lowest of his career. I thought a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world — and after they acquired Amari Cooper from Cleveland midseason, the wide receiver room is more than fine. Allen threw 96 fewer passes in the regular season compared to last year — but he raised his Yards-Per-Attempt mark from 7.4 to 7.7 which is the second-highest clip in his career. Buffalo led the NFL in the regular season with the fewest giveaways and the fewest sacks allowed — exactly what McDermott was hoping to achieve with his stylistic changes. Getting this game at home at Highmark Stadium is huge — and they will feel very comfortable with the temperatures dropping into the teens with a chance of snow flurries. The Bills were 9-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of +17.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 33.9 PPG at home — and their defense really tightens up on their home field where they are holding their guests to just 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.4 PPG. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. Against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or higher, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG — and that scoring average rises to 34.2 PPG if they are playing at home. Buffalo led the NFL by scoring at least 30 points in 13 games in the regular season. They are a confident team that beat both number-one seeds, Kansas City and Detroit, earlier in the year. And I think they are a step or two closer to winning a Super Bowl than the Ravens are. In the last three seasons, they have lost two coin-flip games with the Chiefs — the epic overtime game with the Patrick Mahomes 13-second drive and then a heartbreaking 27-24 loss at home last year. If the Bills win those games, they may have won both Super Bowls. In his 11 playoff games in his career, Allen has a 103.2 Passer Rating — he has completed 65.3% of his passes with 28 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. And while the Ravens only give up 20.8 PPG this season, Allen has a 27-12-1 ATS in his 40 games in his career against teams who are not allowing more than 21.0 PPG. Lamar Jackson has lost four of his seven starts in the postseason — and all those victories were in their opening game in the playoffs against Tennessee in 2021, Houston last year, and then against the Steelers last week. Their 17-10 loss at home against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game was the first time in the Jackson era that they lost to the eventual Super Bowl winner. That game was not as close as the final score appeared. The game plan was a mess with the Ravens’ running backs only carrying the ball eight times. Jackson struggled in the passing game with the goal seeming to prove that he could win playoff games with his arm. In his seven career playoffs starts, he is completing only 59.3% of his passes with 11 touchdowns but nine giveaways and an 81.2 Passer Rating. He has admitted that he gets too amped up in these big playoff games which makes him a work in progress — and that is a net disadvantage versus where Allen is right now. Baltimore signed running back Derrick Henry in the offseason to address those mistakes against Kansas City — and they will feed Henry tonight. But the Bills' run defense is underrated — they rank sixth in the league in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt. Buffalo also held their last three opponents to 271.3 total YPG and 14.7 PPG. Jackson is not likely to have wide receiver Zay Flowers tonight with him being downgraded to doubtful with his knee injury. The Bills defense has struggled against teams like Detroit and the LA Rams with multiple wide receiver threats — so this injury really hurts. Maybe the presence of Henry is the game-changer that solves Jackson’s postseason struggles — but this remains an unknown which really worries me when they are now laying the points. The Ravens have lost three of their last four games on the road against teams winning 75% or more of their games. They played their last two games at home — but they have lost three of their last four games on the road after a two-game home stand. They have lost five of their last seven games in January. And while I know their defense has been night and day after they added Dean Pees as a senior analyst and then moved Kyle Hamilton to free safety, their number one ranking in Opponent EPA allowed since Week 11 was against a schedule that included Pittsburgh (twice), the LA Chargers, Houston, Cleveland, and the New York Giants — not exactly the best offenses in the league. In the 46 games the Bills have played under McDermott when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Buffalo has covered the point spread 29 times including five of their last seven.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played early on the season on September 29th for Sunday Night Football in a game the Ravens got off to a fast start and dominated in a 35-10 victory as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills were down three defensive starters in that game with defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Matt Milano, and nickelback Taron Johnson all out for that game. Having all three players in this rematch will help slow down Henry. Allen had five of his passes dropped in that game as well — and it was before the team traded for Cooper to give the offense a true X receiver. Buffalo has won nine of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses — and both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. The high-risk/high-reward tactics of going for it on fourth down leads to more scoring either from extending drives or offering short fields to their opponent when the conversion attempt fails. The Commanders were three-of-five on fourth down last week against the Buccaneers — and it led to 14 points. For the season, Washington has converted 23 of their 28 (82%) fourth down attempts — and it has generated an additional 129 points for them. Having Jayden Daniels helps — and it is often on fourth downs when the threat he presents with his legs comes to fruition. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play. They have scored points on 50% of their possessions this season. They have scored at least 26 points in ten of their games. Washington has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. But they enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Washington has played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing on short rest. Detroit has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. However, the defense ranks in the bottom five in Defensive DVOA in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they ranked 30th in that metric over the final three weeks. Looking at Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed, they ranked 28th in that metric since Week 13. Against teams ranking in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, they surrendered 27.8 Points-Per-Game. Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco scored 31, 48, and 34 points against them in games since December. And while the defense looked great against the Vikings, I think that speaks more to the state of the Minnesota offensive line along with Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again than it does about the quality of this defense. Opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes against them on first down — so I suspect that will be the game script for the Commanders to throw on first down which will lead to more passing and more stoppage of the clock. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including five of those six games this season. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (398) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (397). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped after their 30-25 loss at home against Seattle as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (14-3) picks themselves up from their 31-9 loss at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game was moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, because of the fires in the greater Los Angeles area.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The Vikings may have gotten exposed last week against the Lions who held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. I was worried about quarterback Sam Darnold going into that game since he had been elevated into the MVP conversation that week after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. There was a stretch when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch in early November — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. With the top seed in the NFC playoffs on the line, last week’s game against the Lions was the biggest in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He was missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty. I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did last week in Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Minnesota’s 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They are only outgaining their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season. This team reminds me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. If there is one area where O’Connell has not been elite, it is galvanizing his team again after losses. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 30 or more points. I suspect this speaks to the market overvaluing O’Connell’s team given the won-loss record rather than other indicators just as raw yardage. Now this inexperienced roster when it comes to playoff experience and success plays a Rams’ group led by the trio of head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford, and wide receiver Cooper Kupp that has a Super Bowl championship under their belts. Los Angeles’ veterans will be rested and ready to play this game after head coach Sean McVay decided to rest his key starters last week in lieu of trying to improve their seeding position. The Rams have covered the point spread in 24 of their 39 games after a loss in the McVay era — and they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a fellow NFC West rival at home. McVay’s teams usually exceed expectations against good offensive teams like the Vikings. Minnesota generates 5.9 Yards-Per-Play while getting 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game for 237.8 passing YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who generate 5.5 or more YPP. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are better than their season numbers given the injuries they have endured this season along with the development of their great rookie class. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in January. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January. The move to Glendale is inconvenient for Los Angeles — and I think it is something that would have been a negative earlier in McVay’s career. But after enduring a losing season the year after their Super Bowl triumph at a time when he contemplated retiring from coaching to go into broadcasting with a lucrative offer purported offer from Amazon Prime, McVay has become a much better culture builder — and he appears to have a special group who seem extra-inspired to play for their home town tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (398) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (397). Best of luck for — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). THE SITUATION: Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Don’t read too much into the Commanders' narrow win against the Cowboys where they only gained 269 yards of offense. Washington had nothing to play for in that game having already qualified for the postseason — and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did not play the entire game. The Commanders had scored at least 30 points in three of their four previous games. They are scoring 28.5 Points-Per-Game with the various metrics measuring offensive strength validating how good they are at putting up points. They rank sixth in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank fourth in Expected Points Added per play. They rank sixth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They also rank in the top five in Points-Per-Drive — and lead the NFL by scoring 2.8 Points-Per-Possession when playing on the road. But Washington is also giving up 373.9 total Yards-Per-Game on the road which is resulting in 25.0 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total as a dog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. They have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. Washington gives up 137.5 rushing YPG — and Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. The Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while Tampa Bay averages 250.4 passing YPG, Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are averaging 235 or more passing YPG. The Commanders generate 5.0 YPC themselves — and the Bucs have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles has seen this team play 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against a team with a better record.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Daniels is certainly more comfortable and confident over four months later after his professional debut. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (381) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (382). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-22 upset loss against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (14-3) has won two games in a row after their 20-13 win against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Jordan Love is off the injury report — so he should be good to go in this game. Like the Houston Texans yesterday, the postseason offers new life for this Green Bay team that began the season with Super Bowl aspirations. They only won two of their seven games against playoff teams — but their five losses including walk-off field goal loss against Detroit, two losses against Minnesota by two points in each game, and a loss to these Eagles in Week One in that game in Brazil. The Packers faced the second most difficult schedule according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. Their upset loss to the Bears took place despite outgaining them by +143 net yards — giving up a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown played a big role in that game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 25 of their 38 games after a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to an NFC North rival. The Packers defense has steadily improved this season. Since Week Six, they ranked third in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they also ranked third in Points Allowed per Drive. Additionally, they lead the NFL in Stuff Rate of opponent rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage since Week Six. Since Week 10, Green Bay ranks fourth in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. And while the Eagles only allow 174.2 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Packers have won seven of their 11 games against teams who do not allow more than 180 passing YPG under LaFleur including four of their five games with Love starting under center. Green Bay will not be intimidating playing on the road after they dusted the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the playoffs last year before almost pulling off the upset the next week at San Francisco against the 49ers. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with normal rest — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games against fellow NFC rivals. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 19 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog in the LaFleur era. They are also 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games under LaFleur as an underdog getting +3 to +7 points — and they have pulled off 13 upset victories in those 19 games. LaFleur’s teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 playoff games in the Wildcard or Divisional round — and while they have a 3-2 record in those five games, both losses were by just a field goal. Philadelphia gets quarterback Jalen Hurts back from the concussion protocol — but he may be rusty in this game after not playing for a few weeks. I worry that this team is one side-eye look away from imploding once again as they did last year under head coach Nick Sirianni. He’s a hot head — and while some players claim that they admire his energy, but when assistant coaches are yelling at him to go away, it’s not a good sign. The players quit on him in the playoffs last year. So, I worry. The Eagles have covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games under Sirianni after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played their last two games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games at home. Their defense played much better after their bye week when they moved Cooper DeJean into the starting lineup as a nickel back in a base 4-2-5 formation. But they ranked just 22nd in Stuff Rate since making that move. Philly played a bottom-five schedule — and they played the easiest defensive schedule according to DVOA. In Hurts 38 starts at home when favored by more than a field goal, the Eagles are just 16-20-2 ATS. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games in January under Sirianni.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won that first meeting between these teams by a 34-29 score in Brazil as a 1.5-point favorite on September 6th. The Packers have covered the point spread in 25 of their 39 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of those 11 games when an underdog on the road. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (381) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (382). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Now comes the postseason where quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past — and he admitted this week that he gets very amped up for these games which may be impacting his performances. And he faces a Steelers team that has done a good job of containing him over the year. In his regular season career, Jackson has completed 64.9% of his passes and averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. In the playoffs, Jackson’s QBR drops to a 75.7 mark with him completing only 57.4% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He has only six touchdown passes in his six playoff games — and he has been sacked 26 times. The corollary of Jackson’s great winning percentage against NFC opponents is that a very familiar opponent like Pittsburgh who plays against him at least twice a year defends him quite well. In his eight career starts against head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, he has a QBR of 73.1 while completing only 58.0% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He averages only 160.5 passing YPG in his career against Pittsburgh with eight TD passes by nine interceptions — and he has been sacked 23 times. To compound the challenge for Jackson in this game, he will be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers who averaged 14.3 Yards-Per-Reception for 1059 receiving yards this season. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season, he has thrown for 207 passing yards in each game but only completed 55.3% of his passes. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their 7 games under head coach John Harbaugh in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (364) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (363). THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-2) has won two games in a row after their 40-34 win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (14-2) has won nine games in a row after their 27-25 victory at home against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The NFL has declared this contest the most consequential final game in the history of the regular season since the winner seizes the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. It is going to be a madhouse at Ford Field which is already one of the loudest stadiums in the league. The construction is similar to a warehouse — and the lower-than-usual ceiling reverberates noise more distinctly than in most stadiums. I suspect this is going to create problems for the Vikings — especially on offense. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been elevated into the MVP conversation after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. There was a stretch when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch in early November — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I’m not sure. He threw only one interception last week — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. We were on the Packers in that game. I cannot get over that Minnesota has a 10-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession this season. They are only outgaining their opponents by +20.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. This team reminds me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. If the communication between Darnold and himself is impaired because of the crowd noise, then I expect Darnold to make more mistakes (and, I know, Darnold made a great throw two weeks ago against Seattle when his communication system got temporarily derailed). This is the biggest game Darnold has ever played in what will be a very hostile environment. I think he feels empowered to “go for it” right now — and I expect he will make mistakes that he will pay for against this Lions team. I’m skeptical the Minnesota offense is equipped to hang on and win in a shootout. They have not scored more than 30 points in 11 of their last 12 games. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games under O’Connell when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. And while Detroit averages 266.1 passing YPG, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG. The Lions, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 19 of their 25 games under head coach Dan Campbell with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while the Vikings generate 243.8 passing YPG, Detroit has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams who generate 235 or more passing YPG. The Lions feel very good about themselves after avenging their NFC Championship Game against the 49ers without injuring any players last week in a game that would not impact the stakes for this game. Detroit has scored at least 34 points in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home having covered the point spread in 5 straight games after completing a two-game road trip. The Lions have covered the point spread in 29 of their 41 games played in a dome in the Campbell era. Their defense could not slow down Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense last week — but they do get some help this week from their battered group with  Alex Anzalone returning at linebacker from his injury. But what defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s group is doing well is forcing turnovers. They have forced two turnovers in their last two games without a giveaway themselves — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games under Campbell after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Detroit does not turn the ball over — besides the one outlier game when quarterback Jared Goff threw five interceptions (in a winning effort), they have only turned the ball over five other times all season.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings are scoring 26.6 Points-Per-Game this season — but the Lions have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Detroit Lions (364) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (356) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (355). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-6) has lost three straight games after their 29-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 1.5-point underdog on December 25th. Cincinnati (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 30-24 win in overtime against Denver as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has lost three straight games by 14 or more points — but they have had a tough stretch of games against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and then the Chiefs last week. They only got outgained by -25 yards against Kansas City but a -2 net turnover margin played a significant role in the loss. Head coach Mike Tomlin has had extra time to get his team rested and focused for this game. The Steelers need to get back to playing good football — and they need to win this game. While winning the AFC North and taking the third seed in the AFC playoffs would require the minor miracle of Cleveland upsetting Baltimore this afternoon, beating the Bengals would set up a date next week in Houston against the Texans which is a far better first-round opponent than playing on the road against the Ravens. Tomlin has addressed some internal locker room issues since the loss to Kansas City. And he needs quarterback Russell Wilson to stop turning the ball over. But Tomlin is as good as it gets in getting his team to bounce back. In his tenure, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games under Tomlin after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 contests when those games were at home. This is the Steelers’ just third game at home since November 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North rivals including 5 straight point spread covers when playing at home. In the 26 games at home under Tomlin when they were the underdog, they have covered the point spread 18 times. Cincinnati is still technically alive to make the playoffs — but they need lots of unlikely help besides winning this game. The Bengals would also need Kansas City playing backups to upset Denver along with the New York Jets to beat Miami tomorrow. That is an uphill battle. Cincinnati has only beaten one team this season in their eight games against teams currently making the playoffs. Their defense has been a nightmare for most of the season. And while they have held their last four opponents to just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, those games were against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and then the Broncos. They rank 18th in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in those last four games which does represent an improvement but it is still in the bottom half of the league. Injuries have not helped matters on that side of the ball with defensive end Sam Hubbard and linebacker Logan Wilson out the year. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt is questionable to play with an ankle injury. This unit has still not recovered from letting safety Jessie Bates walk in free agency two years ago. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road against AFC North rivals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have won and covered the point spread in all three of their games played with extended rest and preparation this season. Tomlin is one of just three head coaches who have covered the point spread in all three of their Week 18 games since the league moved to 17 regular season games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has a 26-10-2 ATS mark in their 38 games played under Tomlin as a divisional underdog — and they have pulled off upsets in 22 of those contests against AFC North rivals. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (356) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (355). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total is set at 50 or higher, there are many routes for the game to finish Under the Total. A few stalled red zone drives. Turnovers. Long drives that burns significant time off the clock. One particular dynamic for this game is the prospect that the Lions head coach Dan Campbell will ultimately decide to rest his key players on offense. I’ll get to that in the Final Take. After giving up 382 yards to the Bears last week, Detroit needs to use this game to find some answers and develop some momentum on defense — so I do not expect any let up on that side of the football. The Lions did enjoy +2 net turnover margin against Chicago — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while Detroit has played three straight Overs, they have then played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, they have played 7 of those games Under the Total. San Francisco has been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The 49ers can be run on — they ran 24th in Run Defense DVOA. I suspect that the Lions will run the ball to get backup running back Craig Reynolds plenty of reps because they will need to use him in the postseason to give Jahmyr Gibbs some help — and that should mean longer drives (which also gets Detroit out of this game faster). San Francisco has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Lions are generating 6.4 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and San Francisco has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA. The 49ers have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan.

FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the final score hitting 50 becomes very difficult. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the game stays below 50 combined points — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Over tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-4) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six games after their 34-0 victory at home against New Orleans as a 14-point favorite on Monday night. Minnesota (13-2) rides an eight-game winning streak after their 27-24 victory at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay is clicking on all cylinders right now having scored 30 or more points in five straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has not thrown an interception in this span — and the Packers’ pivot to a power running team has not only helped Love by asking him to do less, but it has also helped their defense. Green Bay has held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Packers' defense now ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank third using their weighted Defensive DVOA numbers that privilege recent results. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after scoring 30 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The Packers enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their previous game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they have covered the point spread in five straight games in the head coach Matt LaFleur era. The Packers have covered the point spread in 25 of their 37 games as an underdog under LaFleur. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in Weeks 16 or 17 under LaFleur. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog including eight of their last eleven contests getting points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against fellow NFC rivals. Minnesota beat the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by -63 net yards in that game. Despite their 13-2 record, the Vikings are only outgaining their opponents by +10.3 net Points-Per-Game. This team is reminding me of Kevin O’Connell’s squad in his rookie season as the team’s head coach with Kirk Cousins at quarterback when they went 13-4 in the regular season despite getting outgained in yardage. Minnesota has won eight of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. At home, the Vikings are outgaining their opponents by just +1.6 net PPG. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games at home when favored. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Weeks 16-17 under O’Connell. The Packers rank fourth in Rushing DVOA and are generating 147.3 rushing YPG — and the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay wants to avenge a 31-29 upset loss at home against Minnesota as a 2-point favorite on September 29th. The Packers outgained the Vikings by +91 net yards and put up 465 total yards against their defense — but Love was coming off an injury and threw three interceptions. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge under LaFleur. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (415) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (416). THE SITUATION: Arizona (7-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 36-30 upset loss in overtime at Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-6) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona looked dejected last week after getting upset by the lowly Panthers. That loss eliminated them from the playoffs. Despite having nothing to play for, the Cardinals now have the opportunity to screw their rival — and that often provides more than enough motivation to step up their game. If there is any doubt about the mood of this team after losing to Carolina, look no further than running back James Conner who was not expected to play in this game earlier in the week due to a knee injury but now claims he is going to take the field. Don’t be surprised if Arizona plays their best game in weeks now that the pressure is off them — especially in a stand-alone prime-time game. As it is, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. On the road, Arizona has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games as an underdog this season. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Here is another periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. Los Angeles has won eight of their last ten games — but five of those victories have been by six points or less. With this line now reaching +7 in many spots, there is too much value on the dogs in this situation. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning three games in a row under head coach Sean McVay. And while they have covered the point spread in all four of their games during their current winning streak, they have then failed to cover the point spread after covering the point spread in four games in a row. The Rams return home after a two-game road trip — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after completing a two-game road trip under McVay. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is motivated to avenge a 41-10 loss at Arizona in a pick ‘em contest back on September 15th — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 opportunities to avenge a loss including all three games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road under McVay. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (415) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (411) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (412). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-6) saw their four-game winning streak end in a 34-27 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog back on December 19th. Cincinnati (7-8) has won three games in a row after their 24-6 win against Cleveland as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver head coach Sean Payton will have his team ready to play this afternoon. In his career, his teams have covered the point spread in 19 of their 23 games after a loss on the road. The Broncos also enjoy a three-day edge in rest and preparation after playing on Thursday of last week and the Bengals playing on a short week. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 42 of their 63 games in his career when playing on extended rest including winning and covering the point spread in all three games with extended rest this season. Denver stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season. Payton’s teams have a 33-16-1 ATS mark in his 50 games coached on the road — and while Cincinnati is scoring 28.2 Points-Per-Game this season, Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their 42 games on the road in his career when their opponent is averaging 24 or more PPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played seven teams currently in the playoffs — and they have lost all seven games. In theory, their beleaguered defense has played better by only giving up 53 combined points in their last three games — but they also got three backup quarterbacks in their last three contests. In their three games against Baltimore, the Los Angeles Chargers, and Pittsburgh who were using their first-string quarterback, they surrendered 113 combined points and at least 34 points in each game. The Bengals' defense is banged up as well on their defensive line with Sheldon Rankins dealing with an illness and Sam Hubbard out with an injury. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are surrendering 359.9 Yards-Per-Game and 5.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are giving up 240 or more YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams giving up 5.65 or more Yards-Per-Play. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (411) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (412). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (405) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (406). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-7) has lost two games in a row after their 27-24 loss at home against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (4-11) has lost nine games in a row after their 34-17 loss at home against Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: I am not scared to take ugly underdogs — as proven by my (incorrect) endorsement and investment in New Orleans on Monday. And I like to be contrarian to public sentiment. But the public wins a lot of the time  — and the sharps lose a lot of the time. For this game, the most compelling dynamic is my consideration of an overloaded and under-qualified interim head coach preparing his team on a second-straight short week for a Thursday night game against a non-divisional opponent — and one day after the Christmas holiday. I don’t blame Thomas Brown. His primary responsibility should be preparing rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It was fine for Matt Eberflus to elevate him from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator when he fired Shane Waldron in that position. But the Bears should have made their special teams coordinator the interim head coach when they fired Eberflus at the end of November. Instead, they are asking Brown to take on two new major responsibilities he was not doing just six weeks ago. Chicago was still competitive under Eberflus. They lost at Green Bay, at home to Minnesota, and at Detroit on Thanksgiving by seven combined points. But the botched final drive against the Lions as time expired for yet another late-game mismanagement error was the final straw. Since that game, the Bears have been blown out 25, 18, and 17 points — all under Brown’s interim watch. Now Brown has to prepare his team under circumstances that would challenge even the most experienced and savviest head coach. Nope. As it is, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing two games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing three games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after allowing 30 or more points. And in their last 9 games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. Seattle certainly took their preparation seriously this week since they are very much alive in the NFC playoff race. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings by +63 net yards after holding them to just 298 total yards — it was a -2 net turnover margin that did them in. Quarterback Geno Smith threw two interceptions — but he has been more reliable on the road this season. While he has 13 interceptions and an 85.8 Passer Rating in his nine games at home, he sports a 96.9 Passer Rating on the road with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions in his six games on the road. Seattle has won five of their six games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home including their last four road games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals. Additionally, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two games in a row. We bet numbers rather than teams — and it is worth mentioning here that road favorites have a 53-38 ATS record this season so I am comfortable laying a number that is less than a touchdown.

FINAL TAKE: If the Bears’ obstacles this week were not already overwhelming, they come off a game with the physical Lions team — and NFL teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of the 14 games this season after playing Detroit in the previous week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (405) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win versus an AFC North rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a victory against a divisional rival. Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. But the Texans' defense should keep them competitive in this game as they lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston should keep Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in relative check. They rank second in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards Allowed — and they stuff opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time. They held Detroit’s dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry from 31 attempts earlier this season — and De’Von Achane to just 3.4 YPC. The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Texans have played straight home games Under the Total when the Total set is set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (131) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (132). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-19 loss against Washington as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (10-4) has won four of their last five games after their 30-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: My regular reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. Hold your nose if you want to after backing this New Orleans team ravaged with injuries — but it was only yesterday when New England covered the point spread as a 14-point underdog on the road against the supposedly invincible Buffalo Bills. Home favorites laying double-digits have won eight of those last 12 games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those 12 games after the Bills escaped with a 24-21 win against the Patriots yesterday. Double-digit home favorites against conference opponents have a 39-12 record straight-up — but they are 19-31-1 ATS in those 51 games. Double-digit favorites in prime-time games are just 33-56-2 ATS in those last 91 games — and double-digit favorites on Monday Night Football are 13-32 ATS in those last 45 games. Prime-time underdogs getting 14 or more points have covered the point spread on 7 straight occasions going back to 2017. Back to the Saints, interim head coach Darren Rizzi has his players playing hard for him — he is not the first special teams coach to get his team to rally around him after the head coach got fired midseason (the Raiders Nick Bisaccia comes to mind after Jon Gruden got fired a few years ago). Rookie Spencer Rattler gets the start at quarterback — and he is highly motivated to audition for the team’s full-time starter. Green Bay is dealing with some injuries on their defense with safety Javon Bullard and linebacker Quay Walker out tonight and safety Evan Williams and cornerback Jaire Alexander questionable. The Packers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 51 home games — but they are just 3-3 ATS in their six games under head coach Matt LaFleur when playing at home as a double-digit favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The last two favorites laying 13 or more points on Monday Night Football have gotten upset outright. Miami was upset laying -13.5 points last year at home against Tennessee — and Cincinnati upset Pittsburgh as a +14.5 point underdog in 2022. Double-digit favorites on Monday Night Football are just 10-26-2 ATS in those last 38 situations — and favorites laying -13 or more points on Monday Night Football are just 1-7-1 ATS in those last nine games with those favorites failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.4 points. I’m not calling for the upset — just happy to see the Saints lose by ten points! 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (131) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (130) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 30-14 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-6) has won four games in a row after their 40-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay had been beating up on lesser competition — but scoring 40 points against the tough Chargers defense raised eyebrows. But this is a very difficult scheduling stretch of games playing on the road for a second straight week after their cross-country jaunt to the West Coast — and this is their fourth game on the road in their last five games. They are vulnerable to a letdown in this spot. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and head coach Todd Bowles' teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after pulling off an upset win in his career going back this initial tenure with the New York Jets. Tampa Bay has won two straight games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Bowles’ teams are just 3-6-1 ATS in their 10 games when they are favored after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Cowboys are surrendering 27.1 Points-Per-Game, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who are allowing 24 or more PPG. Dallas is eliminated from the NFC playoff race which was something that was all but official after dropping to 3-7 this season in a loss to Houston and with the injured quarterback Dak Prescott out the season. But the removal of the constant pressure to meet (unreasonable) Super Bowl expectations seems to have liberated this team as they are playing looser and better. Getting defensive end Micah Parsons back from injury certainly helps. Since his return in Week 10, the Cowboys lead the NFL with 24 sacks and they rank eighth in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. Buccaneers’ quarterback tears apart opposing defenses when throwing from a clean pocket where he has a 111.7 Passer Rating this season. But when under pressure, Mayfield sees his Passer Rating drop to a 62.8 mark this season. A schematic change on offense has made a difference as well with head coach Mike McCarthy elevating Rico Dowdle to the primary running back while asking less of quarterback Cooper Rush. In his last four games, Dowdle is averaging 21.5 rush attempts per game which has resulted in 119.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game and 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Since taking on this elevated role in Week Nine, he is second in the NFL by averaging +4.2 Yards After Contact — and he leads all running backs in Rushing Success Rate. In a five-game stretch beginning with Rush passing for 354 yards against the Texans, Rush has nine touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and he has averaged a healthy 236.8 passing YPG in those five games. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning on the road in their previous game. Admittedly, the AT&T Stadium has been a House of Horrors this season for the Cowboys — but we bet numbers rather than teams and there are some reasons for optimism. The Buccaneers are giving up 244 passing YPG — and Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG. Tampa Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.5 YPC — and the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams who are giving up 4.5 or more YPC. The Buccaneers are 21st in the league in YPC allowed from running backs.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games in December under McCarthy’s leadership. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (130) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (12-2) has won ten games in a row after their 27-13 win against Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (9-5) has won two games in a row after their 20-19 victory at New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The stout Eagles defense held the Steelers to just 163 yards of offense last week. During their ten-game winning streak, Philadelphia has 14 takeaways and has held their opponents to just 15 Points-Per-Game. Since rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup for a base nickel defense, this unit has been outstanding. There usually is a learning curve when players first begin working for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but his concepts in his first year with the Eagles are beginning to gel — and he is unlocking the talents of the young players drafted from Georgia that had been underachieving a bit until now. After ranking tenth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders through Week 10, they have since risen to number one in that category. Philly lead the league by giving up only 172 passing Yards-Per-Game and they rank seventh in rushing defense by giving up 102.2 rushing YPG. They are one of just four defenses since 2010 to have not given up more than 2500 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards after Week 14. The Eagles have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a road favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Washington’s defense continues to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They have held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders have since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards. Their defense thrives at home where they are only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they given up when playing on the road. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes against the Saints but for only 226 yards which was the second most passing yards he has thrown for in the last six games. The narrative that the league catches up to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes in the second half of the season — and that he fails to adapt — continues to see evidence supporting it grow. When Daniels faced this Eagles defense for Thursday Night Football on November 14th, he only threw for 191 yards and generated just 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt which was his second-lowest mark in any game he finished this season. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Washington has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, in Quinn’s head coaching career, his teams have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total as a home dog — and his teams have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won the first meeting with the Commanders by a 26-18 score last month — and Washington has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Quinn’s teams have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers had averaged 27 Points-Per-Game during a five-game stretch until running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending torn MCL injury. Los Angeles has since scored only 17 points in each of their three games since losing him for the year. They generated only 206 yards of offense last week in their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. In his last four games, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked once in every nine dropbacks — and he is now dealing with an ankle injury that is slowing him down. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between games. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scoring 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against the bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season as they lead the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. They have given up the fewest explosive plays this season — and their 14.8% stuff rate of opposing rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage is the fifth-best mark in the league. The Broncos are surrendering only 17.6 PPG — and Harbaugh-coached NFL teams have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 19.0 PPG. Denver has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, in Payton’s head coaching career, his teams have played 13 of their 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home against divisional rivals. They have played 12 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against division opponents when favored. These two teams have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears gained only 162 yards of offense last week against the 49ers’ defense. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. Chicago has scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. On the road, they are generating only 283.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Williams averages only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt when on the road which ranks 30th in the league. The Vikings rank in the top-ten in deploying zone defenses against pass under defensive coordinator Brian Flores — and Williams ranks 30th in Passer Rating when facing zone defenses. Williams is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season after getting sacked seven times last week — and now this offensive line has to try to protect him against a Minnesota defense that blitzes almost half the time in passing situations. To compound matters, center Ryan Bates and running back Roschon Johnson are out tonight with injuries — and running back D’Andre Swift is questionable. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against divisional rivals. Minnesota is only allowing 18.5 PPG — and their defense ranks number one according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 34 games played in Prime-Time, they have played 22 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is better than their record — they have played eight games decided by one score but have only won one of those games. They have also played a brutal schedule with seven games against teams that would currently make the playoffs: Baltimore (twice), Pittsburgh, the LA Chargers, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Washington. The Bengals with quarterback Joe Burrow has been resilient after setbacks. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. If this team had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in non-conference play. Dallas has a 2-2 record since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback for Dak Prescott — but he is a check-down Charlie. Of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, he ranks 37th by averaging only 5.4 YPA. He also ranks 36th of those 37 QBs in EPA per dropback. In the Cowboys’ last 20 games on Monday Night Football with Prescott under center, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games. Dallas has been a disaster when playing at home this season with a 1-5 record where they are getting outscored by -19.5 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -83.1 net Yards-Per-Game. They are only gaining 311.2 total YPG at home which is resulting in just 16.0 PPG — and their defense is surrendering 394.3 YPG and a whopping 34.5 PPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is outscoring their home hosts by +3.0 PPG and outgaining these teams in yardage. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 road games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road when favored. Lastly, the Bengals have won and covered the point spread in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games on the road when favored by 3 to 7 seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th. Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: For just the second time in Andy Reid’s coaching career, his team has failed to cover the point spread in six straight games. In both those previous occasions, his team covered the point spread to snap that streak. His team has the extra couple of days off for this game after playing on Black Friday — and his teams are 51-39-1 ATS when playing on eight or more days of rest and preparation. Admittedly, Kansas City has been the king of winning but not covering larger point spreads with Patrick Mahomes their starting quarterback — they are 24-39-2 ATS in their 65 games as a favorite of more than a field goal in his career under center. But I suspect that trend is helping to give us some point spread value tonight. The Chiefs have won all six of their games at home this season with an average winning margin of +5.2 Points-Per-Game by holding their guests to just 18.8 PPG. This is the time of the season when Kansas City kicks things into another gear — and they have a 23-6 straight-up record at home from December through the rest of the season with Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs are also 27-19-1 ATS in their 47 games at night with Mahomes with three-point spread covers in four prime-time games this season. In his last five games this season, Mahomes is completing 68% of his passes and has posted a 100 Passer Rating. Things are trending upward for this offense. Running back Isiah Pacheco returned to action last week after missing much of the season due to injury. Kansas City is also inserting D.J. Humphries at left tackle tonight which should be a significant upgrade over second-year starter Wanya Morris who has struggled in that spot. Humphries is a former Pro Bowler with Arizona who the Chiefs signed in the off-season hoping that he could recover from the back injury that derailed his career with the Cardinals. He appears healthy. In his career 98 starts, he has only been called for 18 holding penalties. Even with their recent point spread covering problems lately, Kansas City has still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Los Angeles has thrived off a soft schedule in the first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Their win against Denver represents their only victory against a team with a record over .500 — and they have lost three of their four games against teams that would currently make the playoffs.  They are getting outgained by -14.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against the Falcons — and they got outgunned by -163 net yards in that game. A +3 net turnover margin along with a 64-yard interception return from a Kirk Cousins pass helped overcome that yardage differential. In terms of post-game win expectancy, Los Angeles’ win last week was the luckiest victory for all teams in the last three NFL seasons. The Chargers are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. This is a difficult travel spot for Los Angeles as well after accumulating frequent flier miles from LA to Atlanta back to LA and now Kansas City in the last week. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog of up to seven points. Harbaugh’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 16 games in Weeks 14 through 17.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles wants to avenge a 17-10 loss at home against the Chiefs on September 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. Harbaugh’s teams in his NFL coaching career are just 2-3 ATS in the five games attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather will not be conducive for offensive firepower tonight. Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. With wind like that, the passing game and field goal attempts will be impacted. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. While the weather is getting much of the headlines for tonight’s game, I think the defenses for both teams deserve more attention in this non-conference showdown. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 19 points in three straight games. They held the Patriots to just 269 total yards last week. While they rank 11th this season in Expected Points Added per play, they rise to fifth in that metric in the last three weeks. They rank fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt this season. They have improved in stopping the run as well. They have held opposing rushers to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Five. Overall, they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 21.5 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 19.0 PPG. Miami has played 4 of their 5 games on the road this season Under the Total. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an AFC East rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a game against a division rival. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. Don’t underestimate quarterback Jordan Love’s discomfort in the cold — he is not Brett Favre when it comes to thriving in these conditions. He has a 2-2 record straight-up in his four starts under 40 degrees. Love only completed 13 of 23 passes last week for 163 yards. He ranks 32nd in the league by completing only 61.8% of his passes — and he ranks 32nd in Passer Rating on third down. To compound matters, he will be without wide receiver Romeo Doubs tonight due to injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur has adapted to Love’s accuracy (and interception) issues by leaning on the run and embracing a ball-control offense. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in pass-rate versus the league expectation — and they rank 29th in pace of play. Green Bay has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Thanksgiving night game has seen 11 of the last 17 games finish Under the Total by an average of 4.2 PPG — and in the last 11 Thanksgiving night games with the Total set at 43 or higher, 8 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (273) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-4) had won two games in a row before their 18-16 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 34-27 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost to their arch-rival last week despite holding them to just 303 total yards of offense and outgaining them by +26 net yards. The Ravens are resilient after a loss. With Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback, they have won 16 of their last 20 games after losing with Jackson taking matters more into his own hands by averaging 12 carries per game and generating 65 rushing Yards-Per-Game with eight touchdowns. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss with Jackson as their starting quarterback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home after a loss with Jackson under center. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games on the road after losing their previous game. Playing the physical Steelers is grueling — but the Ravens have won 25 of their last 32 games when favored in their next game after playing Pittsburgh. The Baltimore defense has not been as good this season — but they are improving. They rank 21st in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed — and they rise to eighth in EPA allowed per play in the last three weeks. The Ravens already have 35 sacks this season coming from 14 different players. Baltimore is outstanding against the run as they rank second in opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Only 5.2% of their opponent’s rushes have gone for 10 or more yards which is the lowest mark in the league. The Ravens offense leads the NFL in EPA per play — and they rank in the top-five in Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. Jackson will face a Chargers defense that usually operates Cover-4 pass defensive schemes that divide the defensive backfield into four quarters for zone coverage. He has a 116.9 Passer Rating against Cover-4 defenses. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range. The Ravens are probably not going to have the services of linebacker Roquan Smith who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but the Chargers are banged up as well with linebacker Denzel Perryman out and linebackers Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree and wide receiver Ladd McConkey all questionable. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Despite their record, they are only outgaining their opponents by +9.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are getting outgained by -12.0 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have enjoyed an easy opening schedule — and they are just 1-3 against teams that began the week as a playoff team if the postseason started after Week 11. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has beaten three of the five teams they have played that would have made the playoffs after Week 11. Los Angeles is outscoring their opponents by +7.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (273) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Commanders to just 264 yards of offense last week. They lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.1 total Yards-Per-Game. It often takes some time for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to get his units up to speed in his first year with a new group — but the young but talented Philly defense is learning quickly. Since their bye week in Week Six, they lead the NFL by allowing only 13.8 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up just 211.3 total YPG. The Eagles lead the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game during that span. They have also surrendered the fewest explosive plays of both 10 or more and 20 or more yards. Their defense also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s numbers — and Los Angeles is still dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Now coming off extra time since playing the Thursday game last week, Fangio should have his defense rested and ready for the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford offense. On the road, Philadelphia has held their home hosts to just 270.5 total YPG which has resulted in only 16.7 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Los Angeles is another team that has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I know it is ugly to invest in the Under when the number drops into the 30s — but that is kind of the point. The public likes to bet the Over as it is — and banking on the Over looks even easier when the number is this low. Keep in mind, since 2020 the Under is 35-15-1 in NFL games when the Total is set no higher than 37. Now I am not a zombie to empirical trends like this. For me, it is a starting point rather than an ending point. When then considering the weather forecast tonight, the case strengthens for expecting a very low-scoring game. There is a 90% chance for precipitation with the temperature dropping into the 30s — so even snow is a possibility. These conditions likely mean conservative game plans from both teams. For the Steelers, that means plenty of running the football and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much and risk turning the ball over. As it is, this has been the approach with Wilson under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh is passing the ball 7% below baseline NFL expectations given the down-and-distance situation — and they are passing the ball 11% less on first down relative to NFL expectations. Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Ravens — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. Cleveland has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games. While the offense has been better since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson who suffered a season-ending injury, the former Florida State and Tampa Bay quarterback has not fared well when playing in cold weather. In his five career starts when the weather was below 50 degrees, his teams have scored only 15.3 Points-Per-Game and never more than 20 points. Now Winston faces a Steel Curtain defense that is holding their home hosts to just 279.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.6 Points-Per-Game. The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Even with the low-number, the evidence leads the Under tonight — especially since either one of these teams could struggle to reach double-digits. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals — and the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (476) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (475). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-6) has lost four games in a row after their 34-6 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 26-23 loss at home to Detroit as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Well, Dallas is a terrible team who are getting outscored by -23.5 Points-Per-Game when playing at home this season — but this is a good time to offer the periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. No one feels great about investing in this Cowboys team tonight. But NFL teams off losses by 28 or more points (who no one wanted to bet on either) who are now underdogs by seven or more points have covered the point spread in 72 of those last 127 situations — and these ugly dogs getting a touchdown or more have covered the point spread in 14 of these last 21 situations. So, how can it happen? This Dallas team is playing for pride — and they are not going to quit on head coach Mike McCarthy on national television. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb expects to play tonight through his bad back. The defense is getting healthier with Micah Parsons back from injury. Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games as an underdog with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams from the AFC. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Houston is a vulnerable road favorite even with the expectation that wide receiver Nico Collins will return tonight. The Texans have allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games despite ranking second in the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They are allowing 25.4 Points-Per-Game on the road. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback when playing away from NRG Stadium. At home in his career, Stroud has completed 66.3% of his passes and averages 290.6 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 94.3 Quarterback Rating. But on the road in his career, Stroud completes only 58.6% of his passes and averages 183.6 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA while posting an 82.5 QBR. With Stroud at quarterback, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by more than three points with Stroud under center. Houston’s offensive line is struggling to protect their start sophomore quarterback. He has been sacked 18 times in their last four games — and he has faced a pressure rate of at least 40% of his dropbacks in all four of those games. Additionally, the Texans are just 13-30-1 ATS in their last 43 games played at night — and they have lost 37 of their last 51 games when they are playing in prime-time again after losing in prime-time in their previous game. The Cowboys are getting outscored by -9.1 PPG — but Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or PPG. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that played the Lions in the previous week have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing in the following week — and these teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 6 games in the following week this season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Dallas Cowboys (476) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred grinding style of play that emphasizes the Chargers rushing attack usually dictates the tone of the game. Their games are averaging just 33.8 combined points scored per game — and the 44 combined points scored last week was their highest combined point total of the season. They rank just 20th in the league in Big Plays. The commitment to run the football has helped keep their talented defense fresh — and first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to be outstanding coaching up the defense after serving in the same capacity for Harbaugh the previous two seasons at Michigan. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 13.1 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up only three rushing touchdowns. This defense ranks third in the league in the following categories: 3.4 Sacks-Per-Game; Adjusted Net Passing Yards Allowed; Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They rank fifth in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They rank sixth by holding their opponents to just 302.1 total YPG. Nick Bosa’s name was removed from the injury report this week — and while Khalil Mack is listed as questionable, he has declared that he expects to play. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win at home. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing their last game on a Thursday. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Chargers are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 PPG — and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Los Angeles allows their opponents to generate 4.7 YPC — and Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are scoring 27.0 PPG and giving up 26.2 PPG — and the Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who allow 24 or more PPG. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (453) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New Orleans Saints (454). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-10 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers two Sundays ago on November 3rd. New Orleans (3-7) snapped a seven-game losing streak after their 20-17 upset win at home against Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINT(S): It has been a lost season for Cleveland with things not working out with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. After his season-ending injury a few weeks ago, Jameis Winston jumpstarted the offense by throwing for 321 yards in the Browns’ 29-24 upset win against Baltimore. But it was the bad Winston who showed up after that victory two weeks ago as he threw three interceptions in the loss to the Chargers. Cleveland has been resilient under head coach Kevin Stefanski as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road after a loss at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns hit the road again — and they have covered the point spread after playing two more games in a row at home. And while they had a -3 net turnover margin against the Chargers, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest. While the playoffs are probably out of the equation for Stefanski, this game is the opportunity to demonstrate what his team can do when getting better play at quarterback. The team also benefits from a clean injury report (outside of injured reserve) which is extremely rare this time of the season. With the offensive line at full health again, this could be a breakout game for running back Nick Chubb against a Saints’ run defense that allows opposing rushers to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 141.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season. New Orleans got the interim head coach bounce last week after Dennis Allen was fired. Special teams coach Darren Rizzi gave the team new energy last week in their upset win against the Falcons — but Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo’s three missed field goals certainly helped. The Saints got outgained by -103 net yards in that game while surrendering 468 yards of offense. The interim head coach bounce is usually short-lived. New Orleans is getting outgained by -123.4 net YPG when playing at home with their defense giving up 420.8 total YPG — and they have now traded away start cornerback Marshawn Lattimore. The team is hit hard by injuries, especially at wide receiver with Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan out. Quarterback Derek Carr struggles under pressure — and now he faces Myles Garrett and this Browns defense that ranks in the top-five in pressure rate this season. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win. They have not enjoyed a home-field advantage for some time now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. Additionally, Carr’s teams are 29-41-1 ATS after a straight-up win — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their 37 games after an upset win.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in non-conference play — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 games against NFC teams under Stefanski. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (453) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New Orleans Saints (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st. Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by now considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. These caveats aside, we may be seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presents us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic is not enough for me to endorse the Texans. The second factor that persuades me is simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions are thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit is only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game. The Lions lead the NFL in net turnover margin — and they are averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That is simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit has forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I don’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we are catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets last week by +29 net yards despite the loss. The Texans have not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expects wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field tonight — and they hope Nico Collins joins him at wide receiver with him being a game-time decision after he has missed the last few games. Expect plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers are generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career, he enjoys a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston is 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They are outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home is more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generate on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And while Detroit is outscoring their opponents by +13.8 PPG, the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Houston tends to do well against high-scoring teams that rely on winning the turnover battle. The Lions are scoring 32.3 PPG — but the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who enjoy a +1.0 or better turnover margin per game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson is enjoying another MVP season. He leads the NFL with a Passer Rating of 120.7 — and he has registered seven straight games with a Passer Rating of at least 100. He ranks third in the league with 2379 passing yards — and he has thrown for 275 or more yards in five straight games. For the season, he has 20 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Jackson loves the prime-time stage where he has an 18-5 straight-up record as a starter — and the Ravens have won nine of his ten starts at home in prime-time. Furthermore, Jackson won nine of his 11 starts against the Bengals — and he has thrown 18 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and added 750 rushing yards with two touchdowns on the ground against Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense. Additionally, Baltimore has rushed for at least 100 yards in 25 straight games. Running back Derrick Henry has rushed for 214 yards from 37 carries for a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average in his two previous games against Anarumo’s Bengals defense. The Ravens have scored 41 or more points in three of their last five games — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last seven games. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total at 45.5 or higher — and they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the second half of the season under head coach John Harbaugh. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up win at home. They come into this game at less than 100%. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is doubtful with his quad injury that kept him out the last two games. Left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a left knee. It is interesting to note that star defensive end Trey Hendrickson has only one sack in the Ravens’ last 134 dropbacks when these two teams are playing each other. That is not a good sign for a team that is getting outgained by -12.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season despite their winning record — and they are getting outgained by -21.5 net YPG in their four games on the road. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play which is helping them generate 26.2 PPG — but these are the type of teams that the Ravens handle. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 straight games against teams who score 24 or more PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams averaging 5.6 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens won the first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 41-38 win in overtime on October 6th. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* AFC North Game of the Month is with the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York looked ugly last Sunday — but head coach Brian Daboll usually gets his team to respond after bad efforts. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing to an NFC East rival. New York often plays better on the road where they are 2-1 this season while outscoring their opponents by +4.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +29.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. Pittsburgh is the highest point spread favorite tonight in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. For the record, in the two previous games when they were the largest favorite since he retired, they got upset in both games. Many observers are bullish on what they saw with Russell Wilson last week. He completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. For me, he did not pass the eye-test so I remain very skeptical. He was dreadful in the first half of that game. He got better in the second half — but, let’s be honest, he was also the beneficiary of some incredible finger-tip catches that tipped the balance in that game. To quote Ric Flair after losing a wrestling match: “You did it once, now do it again (Whoo!).” The Wilson hype has helped push this number so high with the hope that he will find new life with the Steelers. There are many folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. The Giants only average 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are not averaging 5.7 or more YPA.

FINAL TAKE: New York is getting outscored by -7.2 Points-Per-Game — but Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25*  NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams come off bad losses — and both of these teams need the victory to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. The loser is in serious trouble. I expect a close game. I am not surprised about the struggles of this Dallas team — and their predicament is made all the worse with the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. But this team was humiliated two weeks ago by the Lions. With two weeks to rest and prepare, I suspect we will see the very best version of what this Cowboys team can be. Don’t underestimate head coach Mike McCarthy’s abilities to self-scout his team on the bye week. His teams going back to Green Bay have covered the point spread in 14 of their 19 games with two weeks to prepare including covering the point spread in three of the four games with the Cowboys. Furthermore, McCarthy’s teams are 38-23-3 ATS in their 64 games when he has had extra time to prepare — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with extra time with Dallas. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 18 of their 24 games in the regular season played with extra rest with Dak Prescott their starting quarterback — and Dallas has covered 12 of their last 15 regular season games since 2019 with Prescott at QB including those last six occasions. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least .500 of their games with Brock Purdy at quarterback. While the hyperventilating in the national media continues regarding whether or not the former Iowa State quarterback is overrated or underrated, the numbers indicate that he has a 6-6 record in his last 12 starts while completing only 63.5% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and 14 turnovers. His Passer Rating in his last 12 games is just 87.8. His better numbers — along with head coach Kyle Shanahan — tend to arrive when running back Christian McCaffrey is healthy and playing. Now not only McCaffrey is still on the shelf this season but wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are both out for this game. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is questionable but expected to play after being in the hospital with pneumonia earlier in the week. Tight end George Kittle is also questionable but expected to play. It is reasonable to conclude neither is close to 100%. This is not good news for a Niners offense that is the sixth-worst in the Red Zone this season. The defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Dallas generates 259.3 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points —  and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total  with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-7 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 4-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York outgained the Bengals last Sunday night by + 5 net yards. Despite their 2-4 record, the Giants are outgaining their opponents this season by +5.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with passer rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and now left tackle Andrew Thomas out — but the offense is getting rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary back for this game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games after losing their last game. They stay at home to play for just the third time this season. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after the first month of the season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are generating 366.8 total Yards-Per-Game, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who average 350 or more YPG. Philadelphia is getting outscored this season by -1.2 Points-Per-Game despite their 3-2 record. The Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert due to injury in this game. That’s not good news for an offense that is just the fourth NFL team in the last 15 years to fail to score in the first quarter after five games. I suspect this speaks to the lack of chemistry between embattled head coach Joe Sirianni, quarterback Jalen Hurts, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games against NFC East rivals under Sirianni.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record. The Giants have covered the point spread in 14 of their 20 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Brian Daboll — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25* NFC East Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 29th. Denver (3-2) has won three games in a row after their 34-18 win at home against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Why is a team on the road who is on a two-game losing streak favored against a home team with a better record who is on a three-game winning streak? Well, the short answer is because they are going to cover the point spread. Here is the longer answer. Los Angeles has the better quarterback in Justin Herbert and the better roster overall — and they are coming off their bye week in much better health. Injuries have hit this team hard early on — especially on the offensive line with both left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie right tackle Joe Alt having to miss the game against the Chiefs. But the Chargers were still competitive with the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Herbert is not 100% either with his lingering ankle injury — so getting the week off should really help him. Head coach Jim Harbaugh gets both his starting tackles back for this game — and that can only help running back J.K. Dobbins. The former Ohio State star is finally healthy and demonstrating his vast potential by generating 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Los Angeles’ offensive numbers are not very good — but they should be taken with a grain of salt given their injuries. Their defensive numbers, on the other hand, are quite impressive so far this season despite the offense not offering much help. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 12.5 Points-Per-Game and 282.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They also lead the league with their opponents only scoring touchdowns on 28.6% of their visits inside the Red Zone. These numbers are validated by the analytics at Football Outsiders that rank their defense as the second best in the league in Defensive DVOA. That unit gets safety, Derwin James, back as well after he was suspended last week for the Kansas City game. This team should take a step or two forward schematically under Harbaugh and his coaching staff coming off the bye week. And the veterans will remember that the Broncos won both games against them last season. Denver beat the Raiders last week despite only gaining 289 yards of offense and getting outgained by -41 net yards. Their 100-yard interception returned for a touchdown was a 14-point turnaround in that game — and the Broncos benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. Head coach Sean Payton is finding success employing the Harbaugh formula (and Bill Belichick, for that matter) of limiting mistakes, relying on their defense, and waiting for their opponents to start doing dumb stuff. The Denver defense ranks fourth in Defensive DVOA. But the offense is a bee-bee gun with rookie Bo Nix under center. To his credit, he has not thrown an interception in his last three games. But he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last four games which continues the concern I had about him in the preseason. Nix was praised for his football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Oregon Ducks last season that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year in college were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like Russell Wilson last year whose average depth of target continued to decline but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. Nix does not have that moonshot in his arsenal which seems to put a hard ceiling on the potential of this offense. Denver ranks 29th in the league this season by averaging only 1.49 Points-Per-Drive. Overall, they are generating only 270.6 total YPG which is resulting in 19.2 PPG. The offense ranks 25th in Offensive DVOA. And while the defensive numbers have been great, they have played the New York Jets, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay in their three wins along with Pittsburgh. The most potent offense they have defended was Seattle in Week One. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on grass in the Payton regime.

FINAL TAKE: Harbaugh’s teams in the NFL have covered the point spread in 22 of their 36 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 18 games on the road when favored by up to six points. His teams have also covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games played in October. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh fell behind early and were staring at a 17-0 deficit early in the second quarter before almost coming all the way back to steal that game. The Steelers did outgain the Colts by +46 net yards with their offense generating 404 yards. Justin Fields may have played his game at quarterback for both the Steelers and in his career by completing 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He added another 55 rushing yards and scored twice his legs. Credit goes to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who has Fields making quicker decisions in the passing game. The loss presents head coach Mike Tomlin a good opportunity to have an attentive audience this week — and that is something that he typically takes successful advantage. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have cocked the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. They return home to play for just the second time all season after three of their first four games were on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when the Total is listed in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Dallas beat the Giants despite losing the first down battle and getting outgained by -10 net yards. The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in that game. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. Prescott has an 8-8 record straight-up in his last 16 games on the road — and he has an 8-13 record in his last 21 games against teams from the AFC. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG. And then there is the matter of the declining Dallas defense. Everything seemed great after their opening week win against Cleveland. But since that game, the Cowboys are allowing 29.0 PPG (29th in the NFL), 397.0 YPG (last), 6.6 Yards-Per-Play (last), and have only registered 2.0. sacks. That unit will not have its best player, Micah Parsons, who is out with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is getting outscored by -1.7 PPG and getting outgained by -24.5 net YPG this season. On the other hand, the Steelers are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 PPG and outgaining their opponents by +56.0 net YPG. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 42-14 upset loss against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 30-13 victory at home against New England as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have made several teams look bad early on in this season. Arizona had lost one-possession games at Buffalo and against Detroit prior to that loss — and those were both teams that won playoff games last season. Quarterback Kyler Murray was missing tight end Trey McBride who was in the concussion protocol last week. McBride cleared the protocol this week and was a full participant in practice — but he did pop up on the injury report yesterday with a rib injury. He is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last night that he is expected to play. McBride emerged as a favorite target for Murray in the second half of last season. The Cardinals offense had been humming this season before stalling without McBride last week. The second-year pro had 14 catches from 21 targets in his first three games. Running back James Conner has been spectacular leading a ground game that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 153.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Arizona is scoring touchdowns on 72.7% of their drives inside the red zone which ranks tied for fourth in the league. They have generated 29 big plays (rushing plays of 10 or more yards or pass plays of 20 or more yards) which is the sixth most in the league. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. And while Arizona is generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP.  The Niners are still banged up dealing with several injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey is still out while tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner are questionable and may be limited if they do play. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after the first month of the season. And in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: With only one win on the season, this is a critical game for the Cardinals — especially against an NFC West rival that embarrassed them by 16 and 19 points last season. Scouting this team had to be one of the highest priorities for head coach Jonathan Gannon in the offseason — and Arizona has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 trips to San Francisco to play the Niners. Expect a close game. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.

FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore raced out to a 21-6 halftime lead before holding on for the victory against the Cowboys. They generated 456 yards of offense while controlling the time of possession by being on offense for 34:45 minutes of that game. While the 1-2 record so far is a disappointment, the offense has continued to develop in the second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio last season, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. So far this season, he is completing 65.6% of his passes — and he is generating 318 total Yards-Per-Game between his arm and his legs.  The Baltimore offense ranked third last season in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. So far this season, they lead the NFL by generating 430.3 YPG coming from 6.7 Yards-Per-Play which also leads the league. The Ravens return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Bills are scoring 37.3 PPG, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG. Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I was encouraged by those moves and am not surprised by their start. But this is a spot to fade them in this difficult assignment at Baltimore. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row. I did worry about a defense entering the season that was replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. Their run defense is a concern as they are surrendering 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and now they face the Ravens’ Derrick Henry who was acquired for games like this. The former Tennessee running back is generating 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry and has already reached the end zone four times. The Bills are dealing with injuries with two defensive starters, middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickelback Taron Johnson, out for this game. And quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +21.3 net PPG, they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 30-14 upset win at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 34-7 upset win at home against Houston as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay expects to get Jordan Love back this afternoon for this game — he might have been able to play last week if the challenge was greater than the struggling Titans. Love is a significant upgrade over Malik Willis under center — but the former Tennessee quarterback’s play after getting acquired by the Packers in a trade was a pleasant surprise as he led the team to two victories. One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” With even Willis thriving in his system, LaFleur deserves a tremendous amount of credit. With Willis — and now again with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, LaFleur has been fully vindicated in the Rodgers divorce — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. So far this season, Green Bay leads the NFL with seven interceptions. They held the Titans last week to just 237 yards of offense while helping them secure a +2 net turnover margin. Their momentum should carry over into this game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games. Minnesota is one of the surprises of the league as one of the remaining undefeated teams — and they get tight end Tyler Hockensen back for this game. I’m not terribly surprised that the Vikings have started strong — I think that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wisely did not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign two years ago to conclude that his team was close and they should pay big new contracts to quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Dalvin Cook. But this looks like the game where the Vikings come back to earth and rather unbeaten season ends. Sam Arnold is playing efficient football under center — but Minnesota only gained 274 total yards of offense last week and they were outgained by -22 net yards. Now this team plays just their second game away from home after a relatively easy one away from home in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants. I also appreciate defensive coordinator Brian Flores who does a great job in disguising and misdirecting his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. But LaFleur is certainly aware of the tactics that expose his schemes. Pre-snap motion can often reveal defensive coverages — and the Packers’ success against the Vikings on December 31st last year may be telling as Love completed 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. All the distinct weapons at Love’s disposal come in handy against Flores’ schemes. Green Bay is generating 204.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against fellow NFC North rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 Points-Per-Game — but the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 18-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 31-10 upset loss at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on September 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville will be playing with full desperation tonight to do everything they can to avoid starting the season at 0-3 which then places their chances of making the playoffs at very low odds according to the historical numbers. There were seven teams with 0-2 records facing that prospect yesterday. Six of those seven teams won their games — Indianapolis as a home favorite were the only team to fall to 0-3. Denver, the New York Giants, Carolina, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Rams all pulled off upsets wins to avoid going 0-3 — and all but the Rams were playing on the road (and there were probably more San Francisco fans at SoFi Stadium yesterday). I’ll confess that I am not bullish on this Jaguars team this season. In my preseason deep dive on them, I concluded that general manager Trent Baalke has been lazy in his roster construction — seven of his nine draft picks last April were from the SEC and he has only drafted one non-Power Five conference player in his 22 selections in the last two seasons. I have questions about quarterback Trevor Lawrence who led the NFL with 21 turnovers while struggling in the second half of the season. So far this year, he is completing only 51% of his passes. But there are silver linings for tonight’s game. Lawrence has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception in his NFL career when playing in prime-time. While his accuracy numbers are down, the Jaguars offense is generating big plays — they lead the league with 12 plays that have churned out 20 or more yards from scrimmage. Lawrence played the second half of last season gutting through several injuries — so not being close to full strength could explain his second-half struggles last season. Jacksonville has lost to two playoff teams to start the season. Their 20-17 loss at Miami was a nail-biter that they could have pulled out. They had a 17-7 lead at halftime and a 17-14 lead with less than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter before surrendering two late field goals to blow that game. Against the Browns last week, they outgained Cleveland by 323 to 297 margin in yards. They were down 16-3 before rallying to make it 16-13 midway through the fourth quarterback. Maybe the story of this team is that they will find ways to lose games all season — but taking them as an underdog may be profitable. I expect them to play their best game of the season tonight. They did rank 10th in total DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders last season. Defensive end Travon Walker is developing into a force, even if the team should have drafted Adrian Hutchinson as the number one pick in the draft three years ago. Jacksonville has been reliable on the road by covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow AFC rivals. Regarding Buffalo, I like this team and am intrigued by their commitment to running the football more than when Ken Dorsey was their offensive coordinator. We were on the Bills last week against the Dolphins — and they have now won nine of their 11 games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. For the record, they were helped by a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they were outgained by -104 net yards. This may be a bit of a letdown spot for them tonight. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point. The Bills defense will be missing two starters on defense tonight with nickleback Taron Johnson and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard both dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams — and I like the number with the Jaguars tonight given the conundrum they now find themselves under. Jacksonville usually plays their best football early in the year as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the first half of the season. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (477) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. So now the narrative is that the Falcons look dangerous and Cousins (much like Aaron Rodgers on Thursday) appears to be regaining his form recovering from his season-ending torn ACL last year. But if Atlanta did not steal that game on Monday, they would be 0-2 with serious questions regarding offensive coordinator Zac Robinson along with Cousins' health — and the calls to turn to rookie Michael Penix would already be starting with their season on the line to avoid that hypothetical 0-3 start. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Kansas City may be one Bengals’ point and one Isaiah Likely toe away from being 0-2 this season — but instead, the two-time defending champions are unbeaten this year despite not playing close to their best game yet. They certainly deserve credit for outlasting two of the best teams in the NFL with their victories against Baltimore and then a desperate Cincinnati team last week. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They proved their mettle and resolve on the road in the postseason last year with consecutive playoff wins against Buffalo and Baltimore. They will be without running back Isiah Pacheco tonight — but they have solid options in rookie Carson Steele and the return of third-down back Samaji Perine who they picked up again off waivers after Denver released him. Steele was explosive in the preseason for the Chiefs after being signed as an undrafted free agent from UCLA where he transferred to after playing at Toledo — he may very well be yet another diamond in the rough this organization discovered like Pacheco who they drafted in the sixth round. Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Spagnuolo, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice is developing into Mahomes’ favorite option with 12 receptions and 178 receiving yards so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Mahomes has thrown three interceptions so far this season — but that is something he should reign in moving forward, especially against a suspect Falcons defense that had blown tackle after blown tackle in their first two games. Mahomes has a 17-4 record in September along with a 22-6 mark against the NFC — and while those numbers are straight-up rather than against-the-spread, they should offer confidence that he will, once again, lead his team to victory. Look for the Chiefs to play their cleanest game of the season without the comfort of a game in Arrowhead Stadium. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (475) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense adopted the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is deploying a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes. He has emphasized more wide zone run schemes than this offense had used previously — and this seems to have unlocked running back Rhamondre Stevenson who has rushed for 201 yards so far this season. Stevenson ranks eighth in the NFL for rushers with at least 20 carries by generating +3.09 yards after contact — and now he faces a Jets’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed after contact against opposing rushers. The Patriots added Antonio Gibson in the offseason as a change of pace back — and he rushed for 96 yards from 11 carries last week. Pelt is also committing to the run with his personnel choices as they have deployed six or more offensive linemen 26 times this season while running the ball in 25 of those occasions — that leads the league. The offensive line is solid but banged up for this game — but there is depth and run-blocking is easier than pass-blocking. The team also signed Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. He has not thrown an interception this season (knock on wood …). New England has continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 Points-Per-Game. Better play at quarterback from a year ago with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot — remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago. New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a loss at home. They have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 40 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode  — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. This team knows it is under the national spotlight tonight for Thursday Night Football. A big concern is that the defense has not played as well as last season. They rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. They also lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings against the Jets. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: I did not like the decision to sign Kirk Cousins as a free agent and then draft Michael Penix in the first round because of the opportunity costs. Sacrificing either a first round pick for a Cousins-led team or $100 million in guaranteed money against the salary cap with Penix under center limits the potential ceiling regarding how far this team can go in the next two seasons. But moves were fine if just looking at them in a vacuum. It was always unreasonable to expect Cousins to be at peak play in his first game back from his Achilles injury while adjusting to a new system. And facing a stout Steelers defense led by T.J. Watt was as bad an opening matchup as could have been drawn up. Cousins should play better this week — especially since the Eagles lack a pass rusher who is near the level of of Watt. Head coach Raheem Morris should have this team ready to compete tonight. His previous teams when he was the head coach for Tampa Bay covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games after a loss at home — and they covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after an upset loss. Additionally, Morris’ teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games on the road as an underdog. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. Those were moves that would only be made by general manager Terry Fontenot if the coaching staff was pleased with the progress of Cousins in training camp. Philadelphia got outgained last week by four yards in their victory against the Packers — and they somehow won that game despite a -2 net turnover margin. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover. Of note in that game last week was that the Philly defense surrendered 414 total yards of offense. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox retired and linebacker Hassan Reddick was traded to the New York Jets. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more against the Packers. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. Now after a big win last week, the Eagles return home as conquering heroes with everything supposedly fixed — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against an NFC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against the NFC. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (291) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 28-6 loss at home to Minnesota as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (0-1) opened their season with a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINT(S): It was as bad a start as possible for the Giants in Week One with confidence in quarterback Daniel Jones perhaps hitting an all-time low after he completed only 22 of 42 passes for 186 with two interceptions last week. But the books have New York as just a small underdog in this game for a reason. The Giants did not nearly as bad as they did in their opener last year where they got humiliated at home against Dallas by a 40-0 score. The following week, they went on the road to beat Arizona by a 31-28 score. There are five other teams in the history of the NFL to lose two straight openers by 20 or more points — and those teams have won and covered the point spread in 4 of those 5 games. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Brian Daboll. Even with Jones as their QB, the Giants have rebounded to cover the point spread in 21 of their 35 games after a loss. Daboll, Jones, and general manager Joe Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Injuries played a big role in their 6-11 campaign last season — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Saquon Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round — and he is healthy to play this afternoon after dealing with an injury. The Giants have been more effective on the road relative to point spread expectations as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against fellow NFC East rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games as an underdog. The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. He ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns last week as he drew comparisons as the next Lamar Jackson — but while he completed 17 of 24 passes, he was too often simply dumping the ball off as he only threw for 184 yards. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a loss by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after allowing 30 or more points. The Commanders make their debut at home at FedEx Field in the Quinn and Daniels era — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. Quinn’s journey to rebuild this defense looks to be a long one after they allowed Baker Mayfield to torch them for 392 total yards. And Washington already has kicker issues after cutting Cade York this week after he missed two field goals. They signed Austin Siebert off the street to take over the place-kicking duties.

FINAL TAKE: Jones is never more confident than when he is playing the Commanders — he is 5-1-1 straight up in his seven starts while covering the points spread in 6 of those 7 games. Daboll has covered the point spread in all 4 of his games against Washington (as an underdog in all four games, BTW) — covering the point spread by 11.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (281) plus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Mounting injuries in the preseason led to head coach Kyle Shanahan having to cancel a joint scrimmage with New Orleans. There was the emotional shock of Ricky Pearsall getting shot last week. Those are plenty of distractions for any team — but for an organization coming off an overtime loss in the Super Bowl, it may only fuel the typical Super Bowl hangover the loser of that game tends to suffer. The loser of the Super Bowl has lost 14 of the last 24 opening games to the new season — and these runner-ups have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of those 24 games. And when these Super Bowl losers are favored by more than three points, while they have won 9 of their 13 games in Week One, they failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 13 contests. If Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games of a new season under Shanahan. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games. New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury in the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp. He has won his last ten appearances on Monday Night Football. He certainly has plenty of weapons including wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and running back Breece Hall. Rodgers’ teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing the role of the underdog. Rodgers also benefits from the luxury of an outstanding defense that ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking as well as third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. The Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers had covered the point spread in ten straight games at home culminating in a 42-10 win against Dallas on October 8th — but they have since failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Jets (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him —  and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-0) comes off a 9-8 season where they missed the playoffs after a 23-19 loss at home to the Texans as a 1-point underdog in the final week of the regular season. Houston (0-0) finished 10-7 in the regular before advancing to the AFC Divisional Round where they lost on the road against Baltimore by a 34-10 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have been one of the most hyped-up teams in the offseason given their 45-14 victory against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs and the vast potential of C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. But Gardner Minshew was a dropped pass away from leading the Colts to victory and taking Houston’s spot in the playoffs. Indianapolis outgained the Texans by 54 net yards in that game as well — and they held Stroud and the Houston offense to just 306 total yards. Now this Indy team gets Anthony Richardson back at quarterback who led the team to a fast start in the first half before getting knocked out of that game with an injury in their 31-20 victory at home against Houston in Week Two last year. The easy question regarding the Colts is how good Richardson can be in his second season after only throwing 84 passes last season (and can he stay healthy?). I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — but that number rose to 371.1 YPG when playing at home which helped them generate 25.7 Points-Per-Game. They outgained their guests by +18.4 net YPG when playing at home at Lucas Oil Stadium. What makes Richardson a potential generational talent is his dual-threat capabilities. He generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry while rushing for four touchdowns in his four games last year. I’m not down on Houston — I just think they are overvalued in this opening game spot as a road favorite against a divisional rival pining for this revenge opportunity for the entire offseason. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. The Texans struggled to offer Stroud a credible rushing attack — they failed to rush for at least 100 yards in 12 of their games. They did sign Joe Mixon from Cincinnati in the offseason — but he has not generated more than 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry since the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator deploys a zone-blocking run scheme which is an approach Mixon has struggled with in his career. The Texans were a better statistical team at home last season. On the road, Houston only scored 18.4 PPG and generated 301.6 YPG  — and they were outscored by -4.3 net PPG while getting outgained by -29.8 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games as a favorite last season — and the Colts covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with equal rest. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (470) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers' defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home if not favored by three or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with equal rest as their opponent. My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Despite how ugly Philadelphia looked last season, DraftKings opened with them as a 1.5-point favorite back in April — and the betting public has been on the Eagles ever since in expecting them to bounce back from their slide. If they do, it will take some time given all the changes. They are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC rivals — and the Packers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against NFC foes. 25* NFL Peacock Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (453) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February. Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. Brown is injured for this game but Worthy will play and Reid has indicated that Justin Watson will get plenty of snaps taking Brown’s role on the field after he generated 17.0 Yards-Per-Reception last season. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. Rice will play tonight — he has a looming suspension for off-the-field issues but the league has not resolved that matter. The Chiefs closed the season on a six-game winning streak — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or more games in a row while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning five or more games in a row. While Week One is not an official bye week, Reid has had at least two weeks to prepare which invokes his 22-14 ATS mark with Kansas City when has had extra time to prepare for his next game. In season openers with the Chiefs, Reid’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 11 games with nine straight-up wins. After getting upset last season by Detroit, Kansas City should have an extra chip on their shoulder to get an opening night win in front of their home fans. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against conference opponents. For Baltimore in hindsight, the philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson against his arch-nemesis in the Chiefs. Why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Spagnuolo may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Mahomes, on the other hand, has a 72.8% completion percentage while averaging 344.0 passing YPG against the tough Ravens’ defenses over the years. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes against Baltimore with only two interceptions — and he has a 115.5 Passer Rating against them in his career. And then there were the losses in the offseason for the Ravens. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager Eric DeCosta signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight. The Ravens have now failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Kansas City — and they do not appear to be as good an overall team on September 5th as they were back on January 28th.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams.  They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT:

I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.

BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).

Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.

BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:

(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.

(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.

Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE:  I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.