Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-16 | Lions v. Texans -1 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (256) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (255). Houston (4-3) looks to bounce-back from a 22-9 loss at Denver for Monday Night Football as a 9-point underdog. We had the Broncos in that game while expecting Gary Kubiak and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to have the insider knowledge as to how to stymie Texans’ quarterback Brock Osweiler. BEST ARGUMENT: Expect Osweiler and this Houston team to rebound back at home. The Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after both a straight-up defeat as well as a point spread loss. Additionally, this franchise is 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. Returning home should help where Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Facing a suspect Lions’ defense missing one of their best players in linebacker DeAndre Levy will also be a boon for Osweiler in this contest. Additionally, while the Texans allowed the Broncos to rush for 190 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last contest. |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Tennessee (3-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with a 34-26 upset loss to Indianapolis last week. Despite the setback, the Titans are playing solid football for head coach Mike Mularkey. Two of Tennessee’s losses have been decided by one score possession. BEST ARGUMENT: In fact, both of these teams come off upset losses as favorites. It is gut check time for both teams having to play each other on a short week. The Jaguars are proving themselves mentally and physically soft under head coach Gus Bradley as they continue to fail to rise up to even the also-ran portion of the league. Malarkey is trying to build his team around toughness with a good offensive line complemented by a host of solid running backs. Except the Titans to wear down the Jaguars. They sport a nice defense that ranks 10th in the NFL by holding teams to use 338.0 total YPG. In the second year of Mularkey and quarterback Marcus Mariota, this team seems to be moving in the right direction. The fact that they are scoring 28 PPG over their last three games provides very good evidence to that statement. |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers -1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (471). Tampa Bay (2-3) looks to build off their 17-14 upset victory at Carolina on Monday Night Football last week as a 6-point underdog. Now this team faces a difficult situation in traveling out west on a short week. A letdown is likely. Not only have the Buccaneers failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bucs surrendered 414 yards to the injury-plagued Panthers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. A +4 net turnover margin made the winning difference for Tampa Bay in that contest. This team has not been good on the road as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (269) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (270). Kansas City (2-2) looks to rebound from their rough 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh back on October 2nd. The Chiefs have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. KC has also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Chiefs’ defense allowed 436 yards in that contest to the Steelers, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Head coach Andy Reid has been outstanding with his teams over the years when coming off byes where he has led his teams to win fifteen of seventeen contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing in Oakland. Despite the 2-2 start this season, quarterback Alex Smith has won thirteen of his last sixteen starts. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +4 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego Chargers (469) plus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (470). San Diego (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 35-34 loss to New Orleans last week as a 3.5-point favorite. The Chargers have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss. Despite their record, San Diego is third in the NFL by scoring 30.2 PPG — and all three of their losses were by 6 points or less. This franchise does play well against their AFC West rivals as they have won six of their last nine versus the Raiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC West rivals. San Diego has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road which includes four straight against teams with a winning record at home. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (263) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (264). Carolina (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 22-10 loss to Minnesota last week as a 6-point favorite. Three interceptions from Cam Newton doomed this team in that game. Frankly, regression was expected from this team after their 15-1 mark last year. But there is no shame in losing to the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos on the road before falling to this gritty Vikings’ team that feels that a deep run in the NFC Playoffs last year was stolen by them by the Seahawks. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread setback. Now this Carolina team can get back to winning the battle at the line of scrimmage against this Atlanta team that is certainly not strong on either side of the ball at the line. The Panthers devastated the Falcons last year by A 38-0 score before losing in a rematch two weeks later in a game that meant much more to Dan Quinn and the Atlanta brain trust than it did the Panthers already clinched with home field advantage. Carolina has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of October. |
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10-02-16 | Colts v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:30 AM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (252) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (251). Jacksonville (0-3) remained winless last week with a 19-17 loss to Baltimore as a 2.5-point underdog. The Jaguars have suffered two losses this season by a combined 6 points — and they are actually outgaining their opponents by +6.0 net YPG. The problem for this team has not been on the defensive side of the football as they are only allowing a mere 311.3 YPG after limiting the Ravens to just 283 yards. QB Blake Bortles has to play better. A trip to London to play in Wembley Stadium may be just the thing head coach Gus Bradley needs to get his team focused on this challenging business trip. If there is one thing the Jaguars know, it is traveling to play in London with this being their fourth straight season where they have sacrificed a home game for a game at Wembley. The Jags are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow AFC opponents — and that includes being 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC South rivals. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Cincinnati (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 29-17 loss to Denver last Sunday. The Bengals were likely to regress this season after many coaches and veterans were all-in on a Super Bowl run last year. But this remains a talented football team — and there should not be too much shame in losing to the defending Super Bowl Champions along with a powerful Steelers team last week. Cincinnati should bounce-back with a big effort. Not only have the Bengals rebounded to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss, but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, while the Bengals’ defense surrendered 303 passing yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after gaining at least 300 yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincy has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 22 games in the month of September under head coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 15-5-2 ATS. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (471) plus the points versus the New York Giants (472). Washington (0-2) finds themselves in desperate straits having started this season 0-2 and a very difficult schedule looming in November and December. That makes this game in the Meadowlands against an undefeated divisional rival extremely important. After laying an egg at home against the Steelers in their opening game of the season, the Skins did play better last week but lost a close one to the Cowboys by a 27-23 score. Washington did outgain Dallas by +52 yards in that loss which is an encouraging sign for them this afternoon. The Skins are getting healthy with left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver DeSean Jackson both being upgraded to probable. Quarterback Kirk Cousins also has something to prove after two subpar efforts to begin the season. But lets remember that this Washington team was very confident in the offseason after making the playoffs last year. They have to leave it on the field today. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (290) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (289). Chicago (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-14 loss in Houston to begin their season last Sunday. This team has some issues -- particularly on their offensive line -- but it would be foolish to count out a good head coach like John Fox that is rebuilding this team in his image. Quarterback Jay Cutler will have something to prove in this contest as well after completing just 16 of 29 passes for 216 yards against the Texans defense. Expect a big effort from this team in prime time. As it is, the Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Monday Night Football. |
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09-18-16 | Ravens -4.5 v. Browns | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (267) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (268). Baltimore (1-0) looks to build off their 13-7 win over Buffalo last Sunday -- and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. Now John Harbaugh's team goes on the road where they closed out last season covering the point spread in 4 straight games. Baltimore is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC North opponents. We expect a bounce-back year out of these Ravens who were devastated by injuries on both sides of the football. But Harbaugh had his team play hard every week -- and now this team benefits from the improved depth from the players forced into action last year as well as the improved drafting position which put general manager into a better position to bring in more talent. Furthermore, the entire team will be playing with heavy hearts with the unfortunate death this week to their veteran defensive coach Clarence Brooks. Expect a spirited effort from this group in honor of their fallen colleague. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). San Diego (0-0) is flying completely under the radar this season after their 4-12 mark which included their being winless in eight games against teams with a winning record. But the Chargers were snakebite with five net close losses of eight points or less -- and they actually outgained their opponents by +9.9 net YPG last year. This is a team that was 9-7 just two seasons ago -- and they still have the quality franchise quarterback in Philip Rivers who can single-handedly keep his team in the game. This San Diego team was winless in AFC West play so this game has been circled for many reasons for this entire franchise to start things off on a better foot. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight opening weeks of a new season. San Diego is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in the month of September. And in their last 6 games on the road, the Chargers have covered the point spread in all 6 games. |
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Frank Sawyer NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-30-16 | Lions v. Texans -1 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers -1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Chiefs -1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Chargers +4 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Colts v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Redskins +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Ravens -4.5 v. Browns | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |