At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: It may take the Heat a game to get situated in this series after a long and grueling seven-game series with the Celtics that just ended earlier this week. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. Miami held the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. The Heat have not allowed more than 104 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Denver rallied from a 73-58 halftime score to beat the Lakers in the fourth game of that series — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their previous game. The Nuggets should benefit from the extended break they earned from the four-game sweep as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get the first two games at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, Denver has covered the point spread 13 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the last game being a 112-108 upset win by Denver on the road as a 1-point underdog on February 13th. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired on Saturday. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. Perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams have a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams is muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams are only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am not willing to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size is too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it is fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And finally on this issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since this is the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that has not then played on the road. Ultimately, I am taking the Heat plus the points because I lack the confidence that the Celtics can close — and their 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back is the latest example of this phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team just think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? Now the Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I am comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Fundamentally, I consider the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed since they are largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat rank second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark is much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also makes 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that still is higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. If the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. So, I think there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I have more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — supporting my argument that the power ratings have them undervalued. And in their last 40 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the underdog, Miami has covered the point spread in 26 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for triple revenge against an opponent that has beaten them three straight times. Butler missed 16 of his 21 shots from the field on Saturday — but I suspect this might be the time he steps up again. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) has won the last two games of this series after their 110-97 win at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat suddenly find themselves in severe trouble in this series despite once enjoying a 3-0 lead. Miami are underdogs despite playing at home — and if they lose this game, they will have to attempt to win this series on the road in Boston. Injuries have plagued this team all postseason with Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro’s absences threatening the depth of this team. The final blow may just have well been when Gabe Vincent twisted his ankle during Game Four. While he returned to play in that game, the subsequent swelling on Wednesday kept him out of Game Six. Vincent’s availability is proving critical — not only is he not a liability on the defensive end of the court (as opposed to some of the players still available to head coach Erik Spoelstra), but he is one of the team’s best ball handlers. Miami committed 16 turnovers without him on Thursday representing more than 20% of their possessions. He is questionable to play tonight — and even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after losing two of their last three games. Boston has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a win on their home court. The Celtics go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Miami against the Heat — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots. To be fair to Miami, Boston did finally overachieve with their shooting relative to league expectations. Given the shot quality statistics, the Celtics would have typically scored 107 points — so they exceeded that baseline by nine points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 100 points. They have also played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Point guard Gabe Vincent has been ruled out for tonight’s game after he twisted his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Miami will miss his scoring as he has averaged 17.5 Points-Per-Game in this series. Look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to slow things down tonight and make it a Jimmy Butler game where perhaps they can steal yet another playoff game in the fourth quarter. If that Spoelstra plan fails, then the Heat will probably call off the proverbial dogs and conserve their energies for Game Six back at home — and that will help our Under play (in the end). Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout games. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. The Celtics have also played 8 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA Miami-Boston TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics played with professional pride on Tuesday after their embarrassing 26-point loss in Miami on Sunday. They made 51.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they nailed 18 of their 45 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was their best 3-point shooting mark in this series. But can Boston continue this effective shooting back at home? They were only making 28.3% of their 3-pointers in this series before Game Four. Frankly, this team simply seems too dependent on the 3-point shot — and teams that live and die by the 3 are usually inconsistent. And the fundamental problems with this team regarding their relationship with head coach Joe Mazzulla — the last-minute replacement for Ime Udoka who was suspended for his off-the-court shenanigans. Boston still looks broken despite the momentary display of life. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. Boston has also been unreliable when playing at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting upset in the first two games of this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 210s including six of those eight circumstances this season. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Fives in a series. Miami only made 8 of their 25 shots (25%) from behind the arc while settling for a 43.6% shooting percentage which was the worst offensive effort in this series. But the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Expect a more aggressive effort from Bam Adebayo who has only scored 11.5 Points-Per-Game on six shots per game after averaging 15 shots per game in the first two games in this series. On the road, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The books still have Boston as an 8-point home favorite which is the range they were in for Games One and Two. Frankly and in hindsight, that number seems flawed based on an overreliance on the Heat’s regular season numbers before they (somehow) flipped the switch and started making their 3s. Gabe Vincent’s rolled ankle late in Game Four worries me — he did come back and play on Tuesday but is listed as questionable for Game Five (UPDATE: Vincent is out tonight — but this is still a play. It’s a Jimmy Butler night). Ultimately, I think this Heat team has too much heart and team unity to get blown out again. Perhaps Boston extends this series to a sixth game, but this should be a close game if they do — and Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (545) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): In backing Boston on Sunday, I compared them to a drunken sailor who hates themselves enough to constantly dig themselves a deeper and deeper hole from which to then dig out. Turns out, this team may hate their head coach Joe Mazzulla even more than they hate themselves given their complete lack of effort in Game Four. The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on their rookie head coach Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has been favored in all three of their losses in this series — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after getting upset in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-18-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three games in a row. This team has still failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after a point spread win. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing the Heat in Miami. 8* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (545) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (544) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series. Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS: The obvious move for Los Angeles tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ efforts on both ends of the court. As it is, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 46 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning five games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Game Fours in a playoff series. And in their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are probably not going to rally to reach the NBA Finals after falling into an 0-3 deficit in this series — but I do expect the professional pride of LeBron James and Anthony Davis to lead them to victory tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 8* NBA Denver-LA Lakers ESPN Special with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin in the final 12 minutes to give that game away. Boston has dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series — and when they have put themselves in similar predicaments, they usually respond with increased focus and intensity on the defensive end of the court. After losing Game Five at home to Philadelphia to trail by a 3-2 margin in that series, they held the 76ers to 87.0 Points-Per-Game in Games Six and Seven of that series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home. Miami has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Heat have excelled on the defensive end of the court when playing at home in the postseason. They have held their five opponents to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 98.4 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Like a drunken sailor who hates himself, Boston seems determined to keep digging deeper and deeper holes for themselves to then dig out of — but I suspect they know that an 0-3 hole will be all but insurmountable. They had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin to give that game away. Miami has a big edge with head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are the mentally tougher team. But the Celtics do have more ballers who can win any game in this series if they are all playing at their typical levels of competency. On Friday, it was Marcus Smart who disappointed the Boston faithful with just 7 points on 2-of-5 shooting with just four rebounds and three assists. Before that game, Smart had averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game on 15.2 field goal attempts per game, 5.7 Rebounds-Per-Game, and 7.5 Assists-Per-Game when Boston was trailing in a postseason game over the last two years. Smart should play better tonight — and so too should Jaylen Brown who scored only 16 points after missing 16 of his 23 shots. Jayson Tatum had his A-Game with 34 points — but he needs more help. The Celtics have staved off elimination on the road in the playoffs last season and also this year — so they are up to the challenge. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after getting upset in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when both those upsets were at home. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss at home. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Boston has some clunkers at home in these playoffs — but they have won and covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Frankly, I was disgusted by Miami’s effort in their opening Play-In Tournament game when we were on them against Atlanta. Fortunately, we have avoided fading them for most of their seven upset wins in this postseason. Mindlessly zig-zagging in the NBA playoffs is a dangerous betting strategy — especially since Joe Public knows about it. But mindlessly fading the zig-saggers is not an approach either. Off two upset wins already in this series, it may be difficult for the Heat to maintain their highest intensity — that is simply human nature. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three games in a row. They have won all five of their games at home in the postseason — but they were 6-0 at home in the playoffs last year before losing three games in a row at home to these same Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Miami including those three playoff games last year. They have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Los Angeles Lakers (540) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (63-32) has won four straight games after their 108-103 victory at home as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games while falling behind by an 0-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 108-103 loss as a 5.5-point underdog on the road on Thursday. Denver (63-32) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. The Lakers should play their best game of this series tonight with their backs against the wall. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss including five straight games in this postseason. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well. But now Los Angeles returns home where they have won and covered the point spread in all six of their games this postseason. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Back on their home court in these playoffs, Los Angeles is scoring +3.8 more points per 100 possessions off turnovers — and they are allowing -1.7 fewer points per 100 points off turnovers. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver outrebounded Los Angeles by a 49-40 margin making it the fourth straight game where they outrebounded their opponent by at least eight boards. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by at least five boards. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning four games in a row. The Nuggets have yet to find a suitable answer to Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham’s fourth-quarter adjustment in Game One where he inserted Rui Hachimura in the game to defend Nikola Jokic. Not only is Hachimura a good defender but that move freed up Davis to devote his defensive energy to protecting the rim. Jokic has gone just 9 of 23 from the floor in the last five quarters of this series since Ham made that adjustment. The Nuggets pulled out Game Two because Jamal Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter of that game by scoring 23 points on 6 of 7 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc. Murray had missed 12 of his previous 17 shots in that game. But now Denver goes back on the road where they have lost three of their five games this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a same-season loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-31) looks to bounce back from a 123-116 upset loss at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (54-42) has won eight of their last ten games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has been ridiculed for claiming afterward that his team won three of the four quarters on Wednesday. It was a disastrous third quarter in which the Heat outscored the Celtics by a 46-25 margin that made the difference. But Mazzulla’s point was that his team “let go of the rope” and let up in their intensity and focus on the defensive end of the court. Boston was not as physical as they needed to be and let Miami run wild in transition. The Heat nailed six of their nine shots from behind the arc in the third quarter while pulling down four of their nine missed shots. The Heat was a sizzling 17 of 26 from the field in that decisive start to the second half. But there are good signs for Boston from that game — if they simply tighten things up on defense and play a full 48 minutes tonight. The Celtics posted a 58% effective field goal percentage with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120.8. They outscored Miami by a 62-40 point margin in the paint. But there is still room for improvement since Boston only made 34.5% of their 3-point attempts while only launching 29 shots from behind the arc. They should take more 3s tonight given their average of 42 shots from 3-point range per game this season — and they are making 39.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Mazzulla will probably not play Robert Williams III as much since he struggled in defending the Heat’s perimeter players — the Celtics had a 145 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court in Game One.  Miami made 54.1% of their shots which was the Celtics’ worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Boston should bounce back tonight as they tend to play better when their backs are against the wall. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games after a loss in the last two postseasons including after four of their five playoff losses this year. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 second games in a playoff series, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Miami enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last 11 games with their 54.1% shooting — and they made 16 of their 31 shots (52%) from behind the arc including 57% of their non-corner 3s. The Heat are due a visit from the Regression Gods after posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 65.1% despite an expected eFG of 50.8%. Miami’s eFG in this postseason is 54.4%. Miami has won the opening game in all three of their playoff series this year — but they followed that up with a 138-122 loss at Milwaukee and then a 111-105 loss at New York in the second games of both those series. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. And in their last 26 games after winning two games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread 18 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston laid an egg in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami last season — but they bounced back by blowing out the Heat by a 127-102 score despite being on the road. Home teams in Game Twos coming off a loss in Game One have won 16 straight times in the NBA playoffs — and the seven Game Two winners have an average margin of victory of +17.7 points with six of those winners all being by double-digits. 25* NBA Friday TNT Game of the Year is with the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-32) outlasted the Lakers in a high-scoring opening game with their 132-126 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (52-44) has now lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the high-scoring Game One which saw 258 combined points, the books have bumped up the total into the high-220s for Game Two after Tuesday’s game closed in the 223 range. The Nuggets did stun the Lakers by making 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 points in their last game. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Denver made 53.7% of their shots en route to 125 points in their closeout Game Six against Phoenix — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Denver played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Lakers to make 54.8% of their shots. The Nuggets stay at home for Game Two where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Los Angeles’ 54.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 18 contests. And by allowing Denver to nail 54.9% of their shots, the Lakers played their worst defensive game in their last 48 contests. Head coach Marvin Ham did make an adjustment in the second half by moving Anthony Davis off from defending Nikola Jokic with Rui Hamichura coming off the bench to guard the Joker. After giving up 72 points in the first half, they held the Nuggets to just 60 points in the second half including  a mere 24 points in the final quarter. They posted an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 103.0 in the second half with Hachimura on the court. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. The Lakers got outrebounded by a 47 to 30 margin in Game One — and they have played all 5 of their games Under the Total this season after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their previous game. And while the Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 16 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver came out with tons of adrenaline and pushed the pace that was at a blistering 102 possessions per 48-minute rate. Things slowed down in the second half with a pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes. Look for tonight’s game to resemble that second-half pace with the Nuggets slowing down a bit while adjusting to Davis protecting the rim rather than defending Jokic. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami will have the benefit of an extra two days of rest and preparation from head coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff. Don’t underestimate what Spoelstra has cooked up for this opening contest against a Celtics team that he knows very well. As it is, the Heat have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 56 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 trips to Boston to play the Celtics. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston stepped up their level of play after losing Game Five at home against the Sixers to fall one game away from elimination. But this Celtics team has struggled with being consistent and maintaining their focus — so this looks like a likely letdown spot after their emotional win by 24 points where Jayson Tatum exorcised from demons from disappointing play earlier in that series. Boston was favored in Game Six and Seven against Philly and covered the point spread in both games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. The Celtics’ stymied the 76ers' offense by holding them to 86 and 88 points in those final two games. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing no more than 100 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 95 points in two straight games. They made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games at home with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series.

FINAL TAKE: This is the third time these two teams have played each other in the postseason since 2020. Miami and Boston split their four games in the regular season with the Heat winning the final two games after a 98-95 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on January 24th. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games at home when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat comes off a low-scoring game where they only made 40.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Knicks to 38.0% shooting, they have played their best defensive effort in their last three games. Miami has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have paled 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Celtics did hold the 76ers to 36.1% and 37.3% field goal percentage in the final two games of that series — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 39% shooting in two straight games. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory.                                   

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Boston Over the Total. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-32) has won five of their last seven games after beating Phoenix in six games last round culminating in a 125-100 upset victory at Phoenix as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-43) won three of their last four contests to beat Golden State by a 122-101 score as a 3-point favorite in Game Six of that series on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has the advantage of being able to host these first two games where they have a 40-7 straight-up record — and they are 30-16-1 ATS in these 47 home games this season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has won all six of their home games this postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 home playoff games. The Nuggets should build off the momentum of their victory against the Suns as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after getting three or more days of rest, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Here comes LeBron James who has lost 14 of his previous 19 opening games of a playoff series on the road (although the Lakers did upset Golden State last round in the Warriors’ building by a 117-112 score as a 4.5-point underdog). Los Angeles enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last six games by holding Golden State to 37.9% shooting. And by making 52.0% of their shots in that Game Six, the Lakers had their best shooting effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. The Lakers have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has only won two of their six games on the road in this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 playoff road games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the home team winning all four games. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with a 95-86 victory on the road as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 playoff games in potential closeout situations. Boston has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing a game where not more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games in closeout situations — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when facing elimination. Furthermore, Boston is a decisive 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Focus has been a concern for this Boston team this season — but when the Celtics are bringing their A-Game, they tend to know how to beat Embiid and this Sixers team. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against Boston. 8* NBA Philadelphia-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-43) had their two-game winning streak in this series snapped in a 121-106 loss on the road as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (50-44) still faces elimination trailing in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. They still lead all teams this postseason in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point speed in 6 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Golden State nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. If Wiggins plays, his offensive efforts will probably be limited. As it is, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win. The Warriors have not been a good road team this season — they are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Lakers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against them at Crypto.com Arena.  

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 opportunities at same-season revenge. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (60-32) has won four of their last six games after their 118-102 victory at home against the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (51-41) returns home having lost three of their last five games and looking to stave off elimination trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The margin for error for the Suns in this series is thin. They live on midrange shooting from Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul — but CP3 remains out for this game and they have to make a significant amount of those 2-point shots to make up for Denver’s 3-point shooting. In their two games at home in this series, Booker enjoyed two historic efforts as he combined to make 34 of his 43 shots (79%) for 83 combined points. Landry Shamet stepped up with 17 points in Game Four. The Phoenix bench outscored the Nuggets’ bench by a 62-31 margin. Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for only 11 Points-Per-Game in those two games. Denver combined to make only 16 of their 50 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. But with all that, the Suns only won those two games by a combined 12 points. Can Booker be Superman again — especially with now an injured foot that will likely slow him down? Deandre Ayton is questionable with a rib injury — and if you are buying the narrative that the team will Phoenix is better off without him for Jock Landale given the plus/minus numbers in this series, I have some beachfront property here in Las Vegas that you might be interested in. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games at home after a game that finished Under the Total. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The most consistent dynamic of this series has been Nikola Jokic who has been unstoppable in this series for the Nuggets. Jokic is making 58% of his shots and 47% of his shots from behind the arc. Denver has outscored the Suns by +46 in this series when the Joker is on the court. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Phoenix. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Facing the prospects of elimination, they should play harder on defense tonight. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 18 of their last 27 Game Sixes in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. But they have not shot better than 46.2% in five of their last nine contests. The 76ers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the playoffs when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston only shot 32.8% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers which was a far cry from their 38.0% shooting from behind the arc in Games One through Four. The Celtics also allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Game Five was just a clunker for a Boston team that played in the NBA Finals last year and probably took too much for granted in a Game Five back at home. Now they have their backs against the wall in this potential elimination game. But let’s remember that the Celtics posted a dominant 123.7 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the first four games of this series — +11.5 points higher than Philly. They averaged 44.0 Points-Per-Game in the paint in the first four games of this series. And the Boston bench outscored the 76ers’ bench by a 124-84 point margin before Game Five when Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III combined for only 11 points. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 60 points — but they did not play well on the other end of the court. Look for those superstars to play with more energy on defense. As it is, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss as a favorite of six or more points against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has been effective on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they hold a dominant 37-17-1 ATS mark in their last 55 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. And by holding the Celtics to 39.8% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last seven contests. But consistency has been an issue for this team. James Harden has enjoyed two huge 40-point scoring efforts — but he only made 17.9% of his shots and 15.4% of his 3-pointers in Game Two and Three. Tyrese Maxey had 30 points on Tuesday — but he did not score more than 14 points in Games Two and Three while making only 34% of his shots. Joel Embiid has been steady as a rock through all this — but he is playing through that right knee sprain. The Sixers are a team that is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Philadelphia has a long legacy of playoff disappointments late in the series — so the anxiety will be high in their building tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-44) has lost four of their last six games after their 104-101 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (51-42) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State looks to stave off elimination tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after failing to score more than 105 points. And in their last 17 home games after dropping two of their last three games, Golden State has covered the point spread in 13 of those contests. Returning home should make a big difference for this team as the role players perform better in the friendly confines of the Chase Center. The Warriors are 41-19-1 ATS in their last 61 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles was in a similar situation last round against Memphis as they held a 3-1 series lead with a road game for Game Five. They took their foot off the accelerator midway through that game when they fell behind to conserve their energy for Game Six. With LeBron James getting up there in years and Anthony Davis dealing with some inconsistencies, don’t be surprised if the Lakers look ahead to playing Game Six back at home. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning their two previous games at home. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-101 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
New York (52-39) has lost the last two games and now looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a point spread victory. Miami has also played a decisive 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. New York has played 28 of their last 46 games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 straight Overs when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/ U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-39) has lost the last two games in this series after a 109-101 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. Julius Randle called out his team after Monday’s loss that the Heat seem to have more ambition in this series. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks play their best game of the series tonight in front of their rabid home fans at Madison Square Garden. New York seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have not scored more than 101 points in two straight games — and three of their last four contests. But they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 105 points in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four games. The Knicks have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Miami did close out their series with Milwaukee last round on the road with a 3-1 lead — but the urgency against the Bucks team was much higher than it is now with the Heat seemingly in command. Don’t be surprised if the Heat play their worst game in the postseason since their flat effort at home against Atlanta in the first play-in game. It is not as if Miami is torching the nets — they are only scoring 106.8 PPG in this series. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning two games in a row at home. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 105 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 8 games. Jimmy Butler is still nursing an injured ankle — and while he has been effective, he has not scored 30 or more points in this series since putting on his Superman cape against the Bucks. He may save his energies for Game Six back at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series after their 129-124 loss on the road as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (51-40) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Devin Booker scored 36 points on 14 of 18 shooting on Sunday. He is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc in this series. But the Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns have failed to cover the point spew main 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They now go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Denver head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. While the Nuggets rank 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with same-season revenge. 20* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-43) has lost three of their last five games after their 127-97 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (50-42) has won five of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Lakers to make 52.5% of their shots. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lakers had their best shooting effort in this series by making 52.5% of their shots — and they were even more impressive behind the arc by nailing 15 of their 31 shots (48%) from 3-point land. But Los Angeles only makes 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc so they are not likely to replicate that effort. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Lakers have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in 14 days.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles owned a 37-17 advantage in free throw attempts in Game Three. They have played 28 of their last 41 games at home Under the Total after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent took 20 or more shots from the charity stripe. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this should be a close game. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. New York did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread only once in their last four games. They go back on the road where they are 38-17-1 ATS — and they are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning record at home. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, while the Heat have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. And in their last 58 games when the favorite, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of those games.   

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) was on a three-game winning streak before their 121-114 loss on the road to the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (50-40) won their first game in this series while earning their fifth victory in their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite Friday’s game going Over the Total, the Under is still 9-4-2 in the Nuggets’ last 15 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver is not as efficient with their shooting when playing away from home. They posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 50% on the road in Game Three which was far below their 55% eFG in the playoffs this postseason. And while the Suns are making 47.0% of their shots this season, the Nuggets have played 37 of their last 64 games Under the Total against teams making 46% or more of their shots. Getting Game Three four days after Game Two was a big break for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker who have been playing more than  40 minutes per game in the postseason. They both had monster games on Friday for the Suns. Booker scored 47 points. Durant added 39 points. But Booker played 41:37 minutes and Durant was on the floor for 43:31 minutes. Now this duo only has a day of rest — and Paul remains out with his groin injury. The problem Phoenix has is that they lack a Plan B offensive strategy if Booker and Durant are not on fire. Their supporting cast made only 16 of 39 shots (41%) from the field and nailed only 3 of 15 (20%) shots from behind the arc. The Suns have played 11 of their last 18 games at home when favored by up to six points. They have also played 5 of their last seven Game Fours in a playoff series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 8* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (539) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (540) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) was on a three-game winning streak before their 121-114 loss on the road to the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (50-40) won their first game in this series while earning their fifth victory in their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Game Three was a must-win contest for the Suns trailing 0-2 in this series. Depth is a problem for this team after they dealt Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade — and the injury to Chris Paul leaves the acceptable rotation for head coach Monty Williams rather thin. Getting Game Three on four days after Game Two was a big break for Durant and Devin Booker who have been playing m more than 40 minutes per game in the postseason. They both had monster games on Friday. Booker scored 47 points. Durant added 39 points. But Booker played 41:37 minutes and Durant was on the floor for 43:31 minutes. Now this duo only has a day of rest — and Paul remains out with his groin injury. The problem Phoenix has is that they lack a Plan B if Booker and Durant are not on fire. Their supporting cast made only 16 of 39 shots (41%) from the field and nailed only 3 of 15 (20%) shots from behind the arc. Furthermore, the heart of Booker and Durant (and Paul’s, for that matter) offense is from the midrange. I tend to think that the “math problem” for teams that do not launch more than 40% of their shots from 3-point range is often too simplistic (the math changes if a team’s shooting inside the arc is over 50% and generates trips to the free throw line). However, the cracks in the Suns’ philosophy are demonstrated in Booker’s stat line as he made 20 of his 25 shots (80%) from the field but only got to the free-throw line twice.  Phoenix won by only seven points despite his 80% shooting night. The Suns are taking more 3s after their Game One loss — but they only made 9 of their 28 shots (32%) from downtown as this simply is not a strength of this team. Phoenix held the Nuggets to 44.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. They will need to come close to that performance again despite ranking 11th of the 16 playoff teams in the first round in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (with a healthy Paul). That Los Angeles Clippers team without Paul George for the entire series and Kawhi Leonard for the final four games of that series still posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark of 120 or higher in three of those four contests. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Phoenix is now 13-3 straight-up with Durant on the floor — but the quality of the competition in those games has to be questioned. Eleven of those wins came against teams in the bottom half of the league in the regular season. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver found themselves behind the eight-ball early on Friday as they went into halftime trailing by a 67-52 score. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when trailing by 15 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Denver only made 10 of their 30 shots (33%) from behind the arc — and their 44.3% shooting percentage was the lowest in this series. Against Minnesota in the first round, the Nuggets made 58% of their shots inside the arc while nailing 38% of their 3-pointers. Denver has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Suns — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Conference Semifinals Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (539) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (536) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (535) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-42) had won two games in a row before their 127-100 loss on the road to the Warriors as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (49-42) has won two of their last three games to even this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles allowed the Warriors to make 50.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Lakers had the best defense in the NBA in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the trade deadline when they significantly improved their roster — so they should bounce back and play better on that end of the court back at home tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles was not as aggressive in Game Two as they were in Game One which they won by a 117-112 score. The Lakers are not nearly as efficient from 3-point range as the Warriors — but they overcome that gap by getting second-chance shots and getting to the free-throw line. In Game One, Los Angeles out-rebounded Golden State by a 53-49 margin while pulling down 13 offensive rebounds. They also made 25 of their 29 free throw attempts. But in Game Two, they only had nine offensive rebounds and got outrebounded by the smaller Warriors team by a 55-40 margin. Furthermore, they only had 17 free throw attempts and missed seven of those shots. The Lakers must control the boards in this series to stay competitive — and it starts with Anthony Davis. The big man scored only 11 points from 11 shots from the field — and he had just seven rebounds. Los Angeles was outscored by 22 points when he was on the court. The inconsistent superstar must play better tonight. Look for him and his teammates to play with more energy tonight after stealing home-court advantage in Game One. The Lakers return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Golden State made 50.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. They also nailed 50% of their 42 shots from behind the arc. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where their 3-point shooting drops to a 37.3% mark this season. Golden State was miserable on the road this season — but some of that should be blamed on defending champion malaise along with head coach Steve Kerr experimenting with giving his younger players more playing time in those games in a hostile environment. Still, it is not encouraging that the Warriors had the worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road for any reigning NBA champion in the history of the league. Golden State is 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Warriors have a 34-25 ATS mark on the road in the playoffs after Game Two in the Stephen Curry era — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 Game Threes when the playoff series was tied at 1-1. Kerr also has some lineup issues to resolve regarding whether or not to go small with just one center or play Draymond Green and Kevon Looney together. This is a tactical problem for him that was temporarily resolved with Looney being under the weather on Thursday. Kerr opted to start JaMychal Green who has size but can make 3s. But he is not the rebounder that Looney is. Kerr needs Looney’s rebounding — but both Green and he are offensive liabilities when on the court together. When Kerr went small late in the fourth quarter in Game One, they overcame a 14-point deficit. But maintaining the small lineup risks the Warriors getting crushed on the boards. By making 50% of their 3-pointers, Golden State gained +33 points on the Lakers in Game Two — the winning difference. Like every other basketball team on the planet, if they make 50% of their 3-pointers, they will continue to win. I do not expect that to happen tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games in the playoffs when the series is tied. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (536) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (535). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (533) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (534) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (55-37) has won four of their last five games after their 111-105 win at home against the Heat as a closing 9-point favorite on Tuesday that evened this series at 1-1. Miami (50-41) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York got Julius Randle back on the court in Game Two — and his presence jumpstarted their offense with the team posting a massive Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 135.2 when he was on the court. Randle scored 25 points while grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out eight assists. With Randle back in the middle, the Knicks out-rebounded the Heat by a 50-34 margin — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after out-rebounding their previous opponent by 15 or more boards. New York should build off their momentum from that win as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The extra days of rest should help them as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They go on the road where they are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road after playing their previous two games at home. Miami hopes to get Jimmy Butler back on the court after he missed Game Two due to the ankle he tweaked in Game One. He may not be back at 100%. The Heat have now covered the point spread in five straight games after pulling off four straight upsets in these playoffs before their Game Two loss. But Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They are also 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games after a point-spread win. They return home for the first time since April 24th where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 36 home games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for seven or more days.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA New York-Miami ABC-TV Special with the New York Knicks (533) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (49-40) has dropped the first two games of this series after their 97-87 loss on the road to the Nuggets as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Denver (59-30) has won seven of their last eight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix only made 40% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last 50 games. Even without the injured Chris Paul for this game after he injured his groin in Monday’s game, the Suns should shoot much better tonight. Cameron Payne has been effective in the starting five when Paul has been injured in the regular season. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after playing a game on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. Denver played their best defensive game in their last six contests by holding the Suns to 40.0% shooting. The Nuggets won Game One of this series by 18 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 24 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (530) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (529) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (59-29) had won seven games in a row before their 121-87 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 9-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-28) has won eight of their last 11 games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia got Joel Embiid back on Wednesday after he missed time with a right ankle sprain — but he was rusty and struggled to find his rhythm. The big man only scored 15 points and pulled down three rebounds in 27 minutes of work. He should be more in synch tonight. The 76ers only shot 39.2% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after scoring 105 or fewer points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games at home as an underdog, the Sixers have covered the point spread 4 times. This remains a team that is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston played their best defensive game in their last six contests by holding Philly to 39.2% shooting. They nailed 20 of their 51 shots (39%) from behind the arc while enjoying a +42 net point edge against the 76ers from 3-point land. That is not likely to continue tonight. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 30 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (530) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (526) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (525) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (48-42) looks to rebound from their 117-112 upset loss at home to the Lakers as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (49-41) has won four of their last five games while taking the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was at a situational disadvantage on Tuesday having just played a Game Seven on the road at Sacramento on Sunday while the Lakers had five days off after finishing Sacramento in six games. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss at home to a Pacific Division foe. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games after a point spread loss. And in their last 16 games at home after losing two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of these games. They remain a dominant 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles may take their foot off the gas pedal after stealing home-court advantage. LeBron James logged in 40 minutes in Game One while Anthony Davis played 44 minutes while not taking a break in the second half. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games off a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win as a road underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors went on a 14-0 run late in the fourth quarter by going small with Jordan Poole replacing Kevon Looney with the other four starters. Poole played his best game in the postseason by scoring 40 points. Expect head coach Steve Kerr to play more small ball with either Looney or Draymond Green the lone big man on the court since that opens up space for the offense to gel. Golden State has now lost four games in a row to the Lakers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when motivated by double-revenge. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Golden State ESPN Special with the Golden State Warriors (526) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (61-28) has lost two of their last three games after their 119-115 upset loss at home to the 76ers as a 10.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (59-28) has won seven games in a row while taking the opening game of this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made 58.7% of their shots in the loss as they continue to torch the nets in this postseason. They have an effective field goal percentage of 60.6% while nailing 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival when favored by at least six points. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Look for Robert Williams III to get more time on the court tonight. In his 20 minutes of work on Monday, he enjoyed a +25.2 net rating with the team posting a 105.4 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing at home. Philadelphia made 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The 76ers got a superhuman performance from James Harden who scored 45 points to carry the team to victory. It looks like Joel Embiid will return to the court tonight after being out with his right ankle sprain. This remains a luxury game for the team after they seized home-court advantage with the upset win on Monday. This is the Sixers’ fourth game in a row on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three games in a row on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning seven or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least five games in a row. Philly did commit ten more personal fouls than the Celtics in Game One after closing out their series with Brooklyn by committing five more personal fouls in Game Four. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after committing five or more personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the 76ers. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-41) has won three of their last four games after their 128-125 win against Memphis in Game Six of their opening-round series on Friday. Golden State (48-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-100 upset win at Sacramento in the seventh game of that series on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 53.8% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests — so they are likely to see some regression. And while they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Grizzlies to 30.2% shooting, their commitment to defense should continue in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles lead the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the trade deadline when they reshuffled their team. The Lakers have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points at home — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 30 or more points. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest — and they have played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Golden State has played 22 of their last 30 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Warriors return home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Lakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (517) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (51-37) was on a three-game winning streak before their 108-101 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (50-40) has won four straight games and six of their last seven while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: While New York made 47.7% of their shots on Sunday which was their best shooting effort in their last six games, that statistic is misleading for just how woeful the Knicks were with their shooting. They shot 20.6% from behind the arc by missing 27 of their 34 shots from downtown. They also made only 12 of their 20 free throws at a rough 60% clip. The deeper metrics suggest they deserved better with their 51.7% effective field goal percentage (eFG) far below their expected eFG of 54.7%. The Knicks are dealing with injuries with both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson listed as questionable with ankle issues. Randle has been out since late in the previous round against Cleveland. Brunson still played 40 minutes on that bum ankle — so he should play and should improve on his 0 for 7 mark from behind the arc in Game One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they have played six straight games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. The Knicks are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home. Miami has now pulled off four straight upset victories after stunning Milwaukee three times in a row last round — so they may be due for a letdown. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a straight-up win — and they are 10-28-1 ATS in their last 39 games after a point spread victory. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six of their last seven games. Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with the ankle injury he suffered late in Game One. While he played through it at the time, it is the swelling afterward that becomes the issue. He is considered a game-time decision — but it is tough to expect him to give it a go and risk making things worse with the Heat already seizing home-court advantage in this series. Game Three is on Saturday — so it would seem the prudent choice would be to just let Butler rest up.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 opportunities for same-season revenge. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (516) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (515) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (61-27) has won seven of their last nine games after their 128-120 win in Atlanta against the Hawks as a 6.5-point favorite to finish that series in six games last Thursday. Philadelphia (58-28) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against the Nets with a 96-88 win at Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite back on April 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston shot 50.0% from the field on Thursday — but that was the worst shooting effort from them in their last three games. The Celtics are making 51.9% of their shots in their last five games — and now they return home to TD Garden where they are making 48.5% of their shots which is generating 120.2 Points-Per-Game. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Celtics are also 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Philadelphia will most likely be without James Embiid tonight as he continues to nurse a sprained right knee. He missed Game Four against the Nets — and the Sixers only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 76 games. The 76ers have covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in four straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 13 games in Eastern Conference Semifinals, the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Celtics — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against them when playing in Boston. 8* NBA Philadelphia-Boston TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (516) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINT(S): Golden State only made 37.2% of their shots which was a season-low for them all season. But they are the ones with the playoff experience in this series — and by going up 3-1 in this series, they earned the luxury of being able to play awful but still live to see another day. Look for the Warriors to play a very good game in this Game Seven after that embarrassing effort. As it is, Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Sacramento played their best game in their last 12 contests by holding the Warriors to 37.2% shooting. But it is safe to assume that defense has not suddenly become the Kings' forte — they allow their guests to nail 50.4% of their shots when playing at home which results in 119.9 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a 6-point or higher underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings played one of their best defensive games of the season by holding the Warriors under 100 points. They limited Golden State to just 37.2% shooting which was a season-low for the reigning NBA champions. Head coach Mike Brown will implore his young team to maintain that type of effort on the defensive end of the court in this Game Seven. But Sacramento only made 40.4% of their shots on Friday in that elimination game — and I do not expect a significant improvement on that mark in this Game Seven with the pressure on this team that lacks deep playoff experience. As it is, the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Sacramento has also played 5 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 11 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival, they have played their next 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home by double-digits. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat upset the Bucks in Game Five despite only making 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Heat have also played 4 straight Overs when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 4 straight Overs after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs. New York shot 43.5% from the field on Wednesday to close out that series despite it being the worst shooting effort in their last three contests. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four games between these teams in the regular season after a 101-92 victory at home as a 5-point favorite on March 29th. Miami has played 34 of their last 56 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday. Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York is rolling — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a win by 10 or more points. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point-spread victory. And in their last 4 games when playing with three or more days of rest, the Knicks have covered the point spread all 4 times. They get to host the first two games in this series where they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home at Madison Square Garden. New York has both Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes questionable for this game — but head coach Tom Thibodeau is hopeful that both players can take the court after the few days off. Randle has gone through individual workouts this week while Grimes told reporters that he plans to play. The Knicks were outstanding on defense against the Cavaliers and squeezed the will out of them in the first round. They held Cleveland to just 44.9% shooting which resulted in a mere 94.2 Points-Per-Game. They also dominated the offensive glass — they pulled down at least 40% of their missed shots in three of the five games. Miami may be due to a letdown after pulling off three upset wins in a row against a reeling Bucks team. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss victory on the road. They are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win on the road. They are 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams while posting a 60.9% effective field goal percentage against them and pulling down a healthy 28.3% of their missed shots. The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games. Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Denver should tighten things up tonight on the defensive end of the court. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Phoenix made 54.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Suns certainly took advantage of a Clippers team that was without their best two defenders, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, for most of that series. Phoenix has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 265 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Denver hosts the opening two games of this series have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. 8* NBA Phoenix-Denver TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games. Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver closed out their series against the Timberwolves despite only making 40.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games — and tied for the worst offensive effort in their last 38 contests. They should shoot better tonight with the benefit of the few days off. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get to host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. And in their last 21 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total, they have failed to cover the point spread 16 times. Defense is a significant concern for this team after they allowed a Clippers team playing without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 120.0 or better in three of their four games last round. While Los Angeles ranked only 20th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the regular season, they ranked fifth of all 16 playoff teams with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.6 despite the injuries to Leonard and George. Now this team is going to encounter a culture shock with the uber-efficient Nuggets offense led by Nikola Jokic operating out of the post. And while the Suns have won 12 of their 13 games with Kevin Durant healthy and on the court since acquiring him, 11 of those games were against teams in the bottom half of the league. The lone loss was against a Clippers team playing their only playoff game with a healthy Leonard. Durant and Devin Booker averaged more than 40 minutes per game in Round One — and now they go on the road to the altitude in Denver. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Tellingly, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 6th with the Suns beating the Nuggets’ reserves by a 119-115 score. Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 opponents for some same-season revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-41) looks to close out this series tonight after their 116-99 loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (55-34) had lost four of five games before making this a 3-2 series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 40.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. And while they held Memphis to 44.4% shooting, that was still the worst defensive performance in their last four contests. After taking a 3-1 series lead, the Lakers bought themselves the luxury to take a game off — and they took their foot off the gas pedal when the Grizzlies started to pull away in the third quarter. But now is the game where LeBron James and Anthony Davis will step it up to avoid a Game Seven back in Memphis. As it is, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by double-digits. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games again teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Memphis played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Lakers to 40.2% shooting. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points, they are just 1-5-1 ATS. Memphis has not been a good team on the road. They are getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game away from home which is bottom-ten in the league. They have lost 24 games on the road as an underdog with their last upset win away from home being on January 22nd. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Considering that the Grizzlies are still relatively inexperienced in the playoffs, look for these woes on the road to continue. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-37) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-116 loss at home to the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (47-40) has won six of their last eight games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sacramento allowed the Warriors to nail 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Kings should work harder on defense in this potential elimination game tonight. They have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They hit the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Golden State had their best shooting effort from the floor with their 52.1% mark in their last five games on Wednesday. The Warriors return home where the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total again teams with a winning record — and Sacramento has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. The Celtics need to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing Atlanta to average 115.2 Points-Per-Game in this series. Boston allows 111.6 PPG this season — and they rank second in the NBA in the regular season in defending inside the arc. The Hawks took the second most shots from midrange in the regular season while taking the fewest shots from behind the arc per possession. Their 35.3% shooting percentage from 3-point range, ranked 24th in the league. But head coach Quin Snyder has Atlanta shooting many more 3s in this series — and they nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc on Tuesday. The Hawks are due for regression as they only make 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Speaking of regression, while the last three games have flown Over the Total with at least 236 combined points scored, Boston has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playin three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also played 19 of their last 29 games in the playoffs Under the Total. The Hawks pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. Boston only made 12 of their 38 (32%) shots from behind the arc in that game. The Celtics should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Atlanta nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc — so they may be due for some regression there. They make 35.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing at home. The inconsistent Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 64 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta gets Game Six at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 126-125 win at home against the Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Memphis (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 50.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. But they also allowed the Grizzlies to nail 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Warriors have played 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 17-6-1. Sacramento enjoyed their best shooting mark with that 47.1% clip in their last seven contests. But they played their worst defensive game in their last four games with the Warriors shooting 50.0% from the field. The Kings have played 40 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games after their 126-125 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINT(S): De’Aaron Fox will attempt to play tonight after fracturing his left index finger. It would be foolish to expect his offensive game to remain at the high level that it has been so far in this series. But Sacramento has been a better team when playing at home — look for the role players to step up tonight. For example, Malik Monk has scored 25 Points-Per-Game for the Kings in the two games played in Sacramento in this series — as opposed to the 10 PPG he is scoring in the two games on the road. The Kings have gotten to the free throw line 61 times in their two home games in this series which is 20 more free throw attempts than what they have had in the two games in Golden State. Sacramento has also forced 35 turnovers in the two games at home as compared to their 22 forced turnovers in the two games on the road. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Sacramento has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games after a point spread win. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. The Warriors have lost 33 of their 43 games on the road this season. It is easy to blame the younger players for this lack of success away from home. While Jordan Poole has scored 19.5 PPG at home in this series, that productivity drops to 10.5 PPG in the two games on the road. But Stephen Curry has turned the ball over five times in both games in Sacramento in this series but only turned the ball over once in each of the two games at home. The Warriors rank third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they rank third to last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road — and they are 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE:  Sacramento has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-41) will attempt to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four of this series in a 112-100 loss at home to the Suns on Saturday. Phoenix (48-38) has won the last three games in this series to take a 3-1 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 43.5% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total — and the Over is 25-9-2 in their last 36 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Clippers to 43.5% shooting. The Sunday have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They return home where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss to their opponent. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams —  and the Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when they are playing in Phoenix. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524). Best of luck of run — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-30) was on a four-game losing streak before their 114-108 loss on the road to the Timberwolves as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Minnesota (44-44) had lost four of their last five games before pulling the upset and making this a 3-1 series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver lacked focus in Game Four with the series seemingly in hand. They tried to flip the switch late in the game by going on a 13-0 run to force overtime — but they could not beat the Timberwolves desperate to get a win on their home court. Back on their home court, the Nuggets should take care of business and end this series tonight. As it is, they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered 15 of their last 22 games after losing on the road in their last game. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They only made 44.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They return home to the Pepsi Center where they make 51.3% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Nuggets have won all three of their games in this series by at least nine points — so laying the wood tonight should not be a problem. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Anthony Edwards is carrying the T-Wolves right now having scored at least 36 points in three straight games while averaging 37 Points-Per-Game on 50% shooting over that span. But it is probably too much to ask that he continues to produce at that level — especially on the road. Karl-Anthony Towns is not helping out with his scoring average down to 16.3 PPG in this series after averaging 20.8 PPG in the regular season. Minnesota will be without Kyle Anderson tonight due to an eye injury — and this team was already undermanned due to the injuries to Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating a division rival in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset win at home. Minnesota goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-29) has won four games in a row after their 120-111 victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 2-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (43-44) has lost four of their last five games as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots in Game Two of this series on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Rather than receiving a visit from the Regression Gods, Denver backed that up by making 57.1% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting performance in their last 22 contests. The Nuggets are a great offensive team — but they are overachieving in this series. Michael Porter, Jr. is making 50% of his shots from 3-point range which is simply not sustainable. Denver has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. Denver has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 28 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The T-Wolves stay at home where the Under has an 11-5-1 record in their last 17 games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-26) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 130-122 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (43-43) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston allowed the Hawks to nail 56.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 47 games. The Celtics should tighten things up tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Atlanta enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 23 games by nailing 56.0% of their shots. But the Hawks have then failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Hawks. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-35) has lost four of their last six games after a 114-97 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Golden State (45-40) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin after winning for the fourth time in their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento only made 38.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. Despite making 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc for the year, they only converted 11 of their 47 shots (23%) from 3-point range on Thursday. They should make more of their 3s this afternoon. As it is, the Kings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Sacramento has been a consistent team playing away from home after posting a 25-17 record on the road in the regular season. The fast pace the Kings play under head coach Mike Brown has helped them maintain their effectiveness in hostile environments. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Kings have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Golden State stepped up with Draymond Green suspended and Gary Payton II out with an illness by playing their best defensive game in their last 22 contests by holding the Kings to 38.0% shooting. But scoring remains an issue for the Warriors after they only made 40% of their shots while missing 34 of their 50 shots from behind the arc. Golden State is making only 32.8% of their 3-pointers in this series which is a problem when facing this Sacramento team that broke an NBA record in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With Green out, head coach Steve Kerr played Kevon Looney for heavy minutes with four perimeter players to spread out the offense and open up space in the lane. The dilemma Kerr now has is how to divide Green and Looney’s minutes in Game Four. Playing both of these players together is a problem since both are liabilities on the offensive end of the court. When both players are on the court in this series, the Warriors are scoring only 105.4 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Warriors have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA Pacific Division Underdog of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-40) were on a four-game winning streak before their 103-93 loss on the road to the Grizzlies as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (52-32) snapped a two-game losing streak by evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 41.2% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. While LeBron James and Rui Hachimura combined to score 48 points, the rest of the team only made 16 of their 50 shots. They also only made 56.2% of their shots at the rim. The Lakers should play better back at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when trailing in a playoff series. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ja Morant remains a game-time decision after taking part in the Grizzlies’ non-contact practice on Friday after missing Game Two with an injured hand. Memphis is still effective when they do not have Morant available since Tyrus Jones is so effective running the offense in his absence — so this good situation is not dependent on Morant not playing tonight. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after their 122-113 loss on the road against the Nuggets as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Denver may suffer a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The T-Wolves have not covered the point spread in either game in this series — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing three of their last four games. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when listed as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row after their 122-113 victory at home against the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point favorite in Game Two on Wednesday. Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. And while they allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. The Nuggets held Minnesota to no more than 27 points in three of the four quarters in Game Two after limiting them to 80 points in Game One — and that was on the heels of only giving up 95 points to the up-tempo Sacramento team (albeit with their backups playing) in the final game of the regular season. Denver has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Nuggets took a 64-49 lead at halftime on Wednesday — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding a halftime lead of 15 or more points. Denver goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The bigger problem for this team is that there can experience scoring lulls on the other end of the court. They exploded for 40 points in the third quarter on Wednesday but only scored 73 points for the rest of the game. They have scored 107 or fewer points in four of their last eight games including those 80 points in Game One. Aaron Gordon is doing an outstanding job in slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has scored only 21 combined points in this series on 8 of 27 shooting. He has committed nine turnovers and gotten to the free throws line only four times. Game Two flew Over the 222.5-point total — but Minnesota has played 16 of their last 19 home games Uner the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where the Under has an 11-4-1 record in their last 16 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-39) was on a four-game winning streak before dropping Game Two of this series on the road to the Suns by a 123-109 score as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (46-38) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory to even this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after he was declared out with a right knee sprain. The line has adjusted with the Clippers now a  home underdog in the 7-point range. Even without Leonard and Paul George, the depth on this Los Angeles roster and the energy they should bring to this game should help them keep it close (or pull the upset). They allowed the Suns to make 58.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive game of their season. They also only made 43.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Returning home the series is tied at 1-1, the Clippers should play better tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit setback. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Clippers have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 76 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. And while Game Two finished Over the 227.5-point total, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They played their best defensive game in their last five by holding the Clippers to 43.7% shooting — and their 58.8% field goal percentage was their best offensive performance all season. But what head coach Monty Williams is asking his team to do is contradict all the current conventional wisdom regarding how to win games in the NBA. Since acquiring Kevin Durant, Phoenix leads the league in shot attempts from midrange. Durant joined a team with Devin Booker and Chris Paul who thrived in taking and making midrange shots. The Suns have taken this to the extreme so far in this series as they averaging only 21.5 attempts from behind the arc. For comparison sakes, Atlanta was last in the NBA in the regular season by averaging 28.9 shots from 3-point land per game. Phoenix is also only taking 17% of their shots at the rim — below the Golden State’s 17.7% shooting percentage at the rim in the regular season which was the league-low. Granted, if the Suns make 40 of their 61 shots (66%) inside the arc again as they did on Tuesday, they will overwhelm the “math problem” of not taking more shots that count for three points or high-percentage shots at the rim. But will Torrey Craig continue his 7 of 12 (58.3%) shooting from 3-point range in this series now playing on the road? As it is, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Clippers head coach Ty Lue is one of the best in the business — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-28) has won four games in a row with their 96-84 win at home against the Nets as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Brooklyn (45-39) has lost three games in a row as they trailing this series by a 0-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only shot 37.5% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. While I often consider these outlier shooting performances to be due for regression, in this instance it may the canary in the coal mine regarding the problems Brooklyn will have on that end of the court. Since the All-Star Break, the Nets rank 24th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with the team struggling to generate consistent points after trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia only made 45.0% of their shots in Game Two with the Nets playing hard on defense — that was the Sixers’ worst shooting effort in their last ten games. The 76ers have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Division rival in their previous game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-25) has now lost three games in a row after their 130-117 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (46-39) has won two in a row and six of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Giannis Antetokounmpo only played 11 minutes on Sunday before injuring his back which leaves him questionable to play tonight. I am assuming that Antetokounmpo is not playing — and even better if he does take the court. Everything went right for the Heat on Sunday as they made 15 of their 25 shots from behind the arc — and Miami’s 59.5% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Bucks all season. Milwaukee should tighten things up on defense tonight while also shooting better than the 26% from behind the arc that they managed in Game One. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. And while Milwaukee has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bucks have one of the deepest rosters in the league with plenty of players that can step up in the Greek Freak’s absence. Look for Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, in particular, tonight. Holiday is scoring 22.6 Points-Per-Game with 9.5 Assists-Per-Game and 6.4 Rebounds-Per-Game when Antetokounmpo has been injured this season. Allen sports a 13.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 3.1 RPG average in the 13 games Antetokounmpo has missed this season. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games at home with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They are also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Miami had their best shooting effort in their last 14 games with that 59.5% shooting percentage. But the Heat have not covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Consistency has been one of the hobgoblins for this team all season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning two games in a row. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee NBA-TV Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (51-32) looks to rebound from their 128-112 upset loss at home as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (45-39) has won eight of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Ja Morant is questionable to play tonight after he aggravated what was already a sore right hand. But this Grizzlies team has gotten comfortable playing without Morant given his history of injuries and then his recent time spent away from the team last month given his off-the-court issues. While Morant thrives in the open court, Memphis is probably more effective in their half-court offense when he is not on the court. Tyrus Jones will get more playing time if Morant is out — and he is a steadying presence as a game manager. The Grizzlies need to play better on defense after ending the regular season by allowing Oklahoma City to make 50% of their shots before the Lakers nailed 53.3% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after losing on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when playing for the second time in five days. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Lakers had their best shooting performance in their last six games with their 53.3% shooting percentage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Grizzlies in their last two meetings — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when playing with double-revenge. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis TNT Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-38) won for the fourth straight time on Sunday with their 115-110 upset win on the road against the Suns as a 7.5-point underdog. Phoenix (45-38) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers pulled off the upset despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay on the road where the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Clippers have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. By holding Los Angeles to 44.1% shooting, the Suns played their best defensive game in their last four contests. The Over is 5-0-1 in Phoenix’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss. The Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-39) looks to rebound from their 126-123 loss on the road against the Kings in the opening game of this series. Sacramento (49-34) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have covered the point spread in 9 of those contests. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 playoff games when trailing in the series. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after winning their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 58 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-95 victory against Oklahoma City as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in the Play-In Tournament. Denver (53-29) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 109-95 upset win against Sacramento as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday to conclude their regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, Minnesota has played 4 of these games Under the Total. Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They host this game where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a long record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the Nuggets winning the most recent meeting in a 146-112 victory on February 7th. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road of 30 or more points. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-24) begins the postseason on a two-game losing streak after their 121-105 loss at Toronto as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (45-39) survived the Play-In Tournament by beating Chicago by a 102-91 score as a 5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat did not look very impressive this week after getting upset at home to Atlanta on Thursday before pulling away from the Bulls on Friday. The long week will not help their chances this afternoon — and head coach Erik Spoelstra may eventually opt to rest his key players for Game Two with his group having a better chance to steal home-court advantage in this series. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win at home. Miami has won five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Milwaukee has had the luxury of resting their key players for the last two weeks — and while rust is a concern, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing no more than five games in the last 14 days. Head coach Mike Budenholzer’s team should play fast and full of energy. The Bucks have not covered the point spread in their previous two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a point spread victory while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-39) has won three games in a row — and 10 of their last 12 games — after their 108-102 victory against Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Memphis (51-31) has lost two of their last three games — and four of their last seven — after their 115-100 loss at Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles found their rhythm after the trade deadline by improving the supporting cast around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers boast the best defense in the NBA since the trade deadline. Their size gives them an advantage on most nights. They are also third in the NBA since the trade deadline in free throw rate. They only made 41.3% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 13 games. But their defense was the difference in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And Los Angeles will come into this game rested having played only once since Sunday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Memphis may be rusty from the week off — they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Grizzlies might have played their best ball in the first half of the season. Since the trade deadline, Memphis ranks just 17th in the league in defense. Back at home, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The Lakers have the experience edge — expect a close opening game between these two teams with the value being in taking the points. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-38) concluded the regular season winning three games in a row — and five of their last six games — after a 157-101 victory at Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (48-34) has lost three games in a row — and four of their last five games — after their 109-95 upset loss at Denver as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINT(S): Golden State has been flipping the proverbial switch in preparation for the postseason all month. Their three-game winning streak was all victories by 11 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning two or more games in a row by double-digits. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Head coach Steve Kerr made a conscious effort to play more of his younger players this season to rest his core group while getting those players more experience. I suspect that is one of the reasons why the Warriors' record on the road was only 11-30 straight-up. But the playoffs are a different story — and the reigning NBA champions have a 21-3 straight-up record in Game Ones in an NBA Series under Kerr. Golden State’s metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since Stephen Curry only played in 55 games. The Warriors also get back Andrew Wiggins for this game after playing only 37 games as he took a leave from the team to attend to some family matters. While Wiggins may need some time to shake off some rusty with his shooting, he is a do-it-all player for the team who should make an immediate positive impact for the team. Sacramento embarks on their first postseason campaign since 2006 — and nerves may play a role in front of their anxious home fans. As it is, the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento may have broken an NBA record for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their struggles on defense may catch up with them now. They ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage that ranked 26th in the NBA. They will likely engage in the style of play in which this Warriors’ team thrives. Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-25) closed out their regular season winning five of six games — and eight of their last ten contests — after a 120-114 win against Atlanta as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (42-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-105 upset win at Miami as a 5.5-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks held the Heat to just 42.9% shooting on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games — but that might have more to do with the listless shooting from Miami than the quality of Atlanta’s defense. A letdown is likely as the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three days of rest. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. And in their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning at least four of their last five games. They host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They are also 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Atlanta on their home court. 20* NBA Atlanta-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (41-42) is on a three-game winning streak after their 123-118 upset win at New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Minnesota had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 108-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The winner of this game advances to the Quarterfinals of the Western Conference playoffs to play Denver.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City is playing with house money since they were expected to tank for (slightly) better odds to win the draft lottery to gain the right to pick Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two games in a row. This team has been capable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting up to six points. Minnesota held the Lakers to just a 41.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with two days of rest. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The T-Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City will be looking to avenge a 112-110 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (44-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 116-105 upset loss to Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Chicago (41-42) has won three games in a row after their 109-105 upset win at Toronto as a 6.5-point underdog on  Wednesday. The winner of this game advances to play Milwaukee in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami lacked energy on Tuesday against a Hawks team that they had beaten in seven of their previous nine matchups. In hindsight, it looked like they took Atlanta for granted — especially with a game in hand tonight against the Bulls-Raptors winner the next night. The Heat got out-rebounded by a 63-39 margin which is indicative of their lack of work ethic in that game. Jimmy Butler only made six of his 19 shots from the field as he threw up a bad bunny after bad bunny that rattled off the rim. Miami only made 42.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while Miami started slow against the Hawks and went into halftime trailing by 15 points, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after going into halftime with a deficit of 15 or more points. They get to host this single-elimination game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Chicago pulled off a 19-point comeback to upset the Raptors on Wednesday. While they have covered the point spread in all three of their current three-game winning streak, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Bulls have only allowed 186 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago swept all three games against the Heat this season with the last two meetings being by double-digits — so this dynamic should remove any chance of Miami taking this team for granted. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (40-42) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Zion Williamson who has missed much of the season again due to injuries. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They earned the right to host this game having played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. Oklahoma City has a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by ten or more points. 8* NBA  Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (40-42) has won two games in a row with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has an experience edge in this game after competing in the Play-In Tournament last season and earning the eighth seed and some valuable playoff experience. Zion Williamson remains out for this team — but when the Pelicans have a healthy Brandon Ingram to complement the veteran C.J. McCollum, this becomes a very formidable team. Ingram has missed 37 games this season — but they have won nine of their last twelve games with him back on the court to close out the regular season. Not only is that the fourth-best record in the NBA over that span, but New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Williamson. New Orleans only made 44.4% of their shots on Sunday against the Timberwolves -- their most shooting effort in their last three contests — while making only 3 of their 21 shots (14.3%) of their shots from bending the arc. But the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Ingram was spectacular in the losing effort by scoring 42 points on 16 of 28 shooting. They get to play this game at home where they are 4-1-1 ATS in their 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. And by holding Oklahoma City to just 43.5% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last 13 contests. But the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Many observers predicted that this team would spend the season tanking to improve their draft prospects — so the campaign has been a surprising success. But this is a very young group with an average age on the roster of 22.6 which is three years younger than the average age for the Pelicans roster. Charlotte has demonstrated recently that young teams can quickly get overwhelmed in this Play-In Tournament. Second-chance scoring opportunities should be an area where New Orleans will hold an edge tonight. The Thunder are the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the league — and the Pelicans are tenth in the NBA by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots. Oklahoma City was much better at home where they owned a 24-17 record — but they have a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. The Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. Ingram did not play in that game while both Jonas Valuncianas and Herbert Jones played less than 20 minutes in the game. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games in April. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-42) enters the NBA postseason coming off a 103-81 win against Detroit as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Toronto (41-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-105 win against Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Miami to play the Heat to claim the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs on Friday — and the loser ends their season tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has been a much better team since acquiring Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline. The Bulls rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since adding the gritty perimeter defender. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Additionally, Chicago has also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to the 219.5-point range. The Under is also 34-16-1 in the Bulls’ last 51 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Toronto made 50.5% of their shots in their win against the Bucks on Sunday — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Adding center Jakob Poetl significantly improved the play of this team on defense since it provided them with a rim protector they were lacking. With Poelt on the court, Toronto gives up -5.6 points per 100 possessions. They have played 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set from 210 to 219.5. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 5 straight games in the playoffs Under the Total. 8* NBA Chicago-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (563) and the Los Angeles Lakers (564). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (42-40) has won three games in a row — and seven of their last ten contests — after their 113-108 victory against New Orleans as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (43-39) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after a 128-117 win against Utah as a 17-point favorite on Sunday to close out their regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves made 47.6% of their shots on Sunday against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. Now they will have to play this game without their two best defensive players in Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Gobert was suspended for this game after throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson in that game against New Orleans. McDaniels later injured his hand by taking out his frustrations by punching a wall. The absence of these two players means the T-Wolves will have to play small ball — so look for them to play fast and try to outrun this older Lakers team. They have played 26 of their last 41 road games Over the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles shot 48.5% from the field on Sunday against the Jazz which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Lakers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 31st with the Lakers winning by a 123-111 scorer as a 2.5-point favorite — and the Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (563) and the Los Angeles Lakers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Miami Heat (562). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (41-41) enters the postseason having lost two games in a row after their 120-114 loss at Boston as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (44-38) has won four of their last five games after their 123-110 win against Orlando as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami has been a disappointment this season by making only 34.4% of their 3-pointers. But in their last five games, they are nailing 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc which has helped them post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 123.4. The Heat’s rediscovery of their shooting touch this month — just in time for the playoffs. Miami has played 5 straight Overs after winning their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point-spread victory. The Heat get to host this game where they have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami’s defense has taken a step back lately. After ranking fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they have fallen to 22nd in that metric since the All-Star break. They did hold the Magic to 42.2% shooting but that was the best defensive effort in their last 26 games in that meaningless contest to end the regular season. Atlanta ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with a 115.4 mark — and that number worsens to 117.4 when on the road. In their last 15 games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has been even worse at 118.5, the sixth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. But this team can score — they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.1 in their last 15 games. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against Southeast Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 6th with the Heat winning at home by a 130-128 score to register their second straight victory against the Hawks. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Atlanta-Miami TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Miami Heat (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). THE SITUATION: Miami (44-38) has won four of their last five games after their 123-110 win against Orlando as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (41-41) enters the postseason having lost two games in a row after their 120-114 loss at Boston as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has been a disappointment this season by making only 34.4% of their 3-pointers. But in their last five games, they are nailing 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc which has helped them post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 123.4. The Heat’s rediscovery of their shooting touch this month — just in time for the playoffs — has helped them play five straight Overs which is a good sign for them. Miami has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing four or more Overs in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing five straight Overs. The Heat get to host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami loves playing the Hawks — especially since acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Heat have won three of the four meetings between these two teams this season after beating them in the playoffs in five games last season. Not only do they have a 14-6 straight-up record against them in their 20 games against Atlanta with Butler on the team, but they have also covered the point spread in 12 of those games. The numbers are even starker when Miami is playing at home — they have won ten of their last eleven games when hosting the Hawks while covering the point spread in 8 of those games. The Heat also thrive in close games. They have played 54 games this season defined as “clutch” situations where the score was within five points with five minutes to go. They have won 32 of these games while posting the second-best Adjusted Net Efficiency rating in the NBA in those situations. Atlanta, on the other hand, ranks second-to-last in Adjusted Net Efficiency in clutch time this season — so the Heat have a good chance to pull away in this game late if the score is close. We should not read much in their six-point loss at Boston on Sunday since both teams were resting starters — but their 136-131 loss at home to Philadelphia on Friday is troubling since the Hawks played all their starters while the 76ers rested their top-six rotation players. Miami’s switching defense usually frustrates Trae Young who only scored 15.4 Points-Per-Game with a 32% shooting percentage and an 18% mark from behind the arc in their playoff series last year — way down from his 26.2 PPG scoring average last year. In their four games this season, Young has made only 36% of his shot with an ugly 25% clip from behind the arc. Atlanta has struggled this season which eventually led to the firing of head coach Nate McMillan. New head coach Quin Snyder probably needs an entire off-season to implement his system with this team. They have only gone 7-8 in their last 15 regular season games with the problem continuing to be on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks rank 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with a 115.4 mark — and that number worsens to 117.4 when on the road. In their last 15 games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has been even worse at 118.5, the sixth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Heat in Miami. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 6th with the Heat winning at home by a 130-128 score to register their second straight victory against the Hawks. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with double revenge. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (557) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (558). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (42-39) has won four of their last five games after their 113-105 victory against New York as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (41-40) has won two in a row with their 151-131 victory at San Antonio as a 15.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The winner of this game earns the eighth seed in the Play-In Tournament next week (with the Timberwolves holding the tie-breaker if they get the win) — so this is a meaningful game for both teams. The playoff-like atmosphere should ensure the intensity is high on defense for both teams. The Pelicans made 53.2% of their shots against the Knicks which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. New Orleans has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Pelicans are an outstanding defensive team that ranks sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank second in that category in their last ten games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 26 of their last 37 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Minnesota nailed 55.4% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They also let San Antonio make 52.6% of their shots in the blowout win which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. None of the Timberwolves players logged in more than 29 minutes — so this should be a group with plenty of energy to play hard on the defensive end of the court. Minnesota ranks 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have a slew of capable wing defenders who can give C.J. McCollum trouble in his attempts to lead the Pelicans’ offense. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home after playing an Over in their last game. The Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on their home court. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 111-102 upset loss at home to the T-Wolves as a 3-point favorite on January 25th — and they have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under Toal when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (557) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (579) and the Utah Jazz (580). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (38-42) has lost three games in a row — and six of their last eight games — after their 136-125 loss at Golden State as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Utah (36-43) has lost three games in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — after a 135-133 loss in overtime against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Warriors to make 49.5% of their shots — and that was still the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Oklahoma City has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two games in a row. The Over is 7-3-1 in Utah’s last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jazz have also played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, Utah has played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has won their last two games against the Jazz after their 129-119 victory at home against them on March 5th. The Thunder have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (579) and the Utah Jazz (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (40-39) was on a two-game winning streak before their 121-103 upset loss at home to Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite last night. Memphis (50-29) has split their last four games after a 119-109 win against Portland as an 18.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans shot only 44.0% from the field last night which was the lowest-shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed the Kings to make 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last three contests. < b>The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis made 48.3% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Ja Morant and Luke Kennard combined for 43 points against the Trail Blazers but both are doubtful to play tonight due to small injuries that head coach Taylor Jenkins does not want to risk when playing tonight’s game without rest. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher when playing at home. Memphis has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans is currently in seventh place in the Western Conference — and they are one game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for sixth place in the conference which avoids the play-in tournament and gives them plenty of motivation. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis is undermanned tonight while sitting comfortably two games ahead of the Kings for second place in the conference with three games left in the regular season. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (549) and the Memphis Grizzlies (550). THE SITUATION: Portland (33-45) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 107-105 upset win at Minnesota as a 19-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (49-29) has lost two of their last three games after their 128-107 loss at Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers are in full-tank mode now at this point of the season. Damian Lillard is out the season with a calf injury — and starters like Anfernee Simmons, Jusuf Nurkic, and Jerami Grant are not playing tonight. Portland has another handful of players listed as questionable as they embrace the soft tanking approach for the rest of the season. The players at rookie head coach Chauncey Billups’ disposal tonight are playing for jobs in the league — so they will work hard on the defensive end of the court. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-2 in the Trail Blazers last 28 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Memphis has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Grizzlies have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Memphis ranks second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so hosting this Blazers team presents an importunity to get back to playing good defense after the Bulls made 53.2% of their shots against them. The Grizzlies have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.2% when playing at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis looks to avenge a 122-112 upset loss at home to the Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point underdog on February 1st. The Grizzlies have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (549) and the Memphis Grizzlies (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (531) and the Detroit Pistons (532). THE SITUATION: Miami (41-37) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 129-1122 win against Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Detroit (16-62) has lost nine games in a row after their 128-102 loss at Orlando as an 11-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons allowed the Magic to make 57.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games on the road. The Pistons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But they also played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Mavericks to nail 61.0% of their shots. The Heat go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. Miami has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when these two teams are playing in Detroit. 8* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (531) and the Detroit Pistons (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 124-107 upset loss at Baltimore as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (37-41) has lost six of their last seven games after their 129-122 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas made 61% of their shots on Friday which was their best shooting effort of the season. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Atlanta allowed the Nets to make 55.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% or their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Mavericks on their home court. 8* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). THE SITUATION: Utah (36-40) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 128-117 victory at San Antonio as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston (53-24) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 140-99 upset victory at Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where the Over is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston held the Bucks to just 37.8% shooting which was the second-best defensive effort in their last ten games — and the third-best defensive performance in their last 28 contests. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Celtics’ last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They return home where they have paled 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Denver Nuggets (552). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-38) was on a five-game winning streak before their 120-109 loss at Golden State as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (51-24) has won four games in a row with their 116-111 victory against Philadelphia as a 7-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans allowed the Warriors to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They complete their four-game road trip tonight having played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Denver has shot at least 50% from the field for the eighth straight game by nailing 50.6% of their shots against the 76ers — but they have played 34 of their last 52 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. The Nuggets have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Nuggets complete their three-game home stand tonight having played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Nikola Jokic is questionable tonight with a calf injury — and Denver scores -22.8 fewer points per 100 possessions this season when he is not on the court. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Denver. 8* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Denver Nuggets (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). THE SITUATION: Utah (35-40) has lost four straight games after their 117-103 loss to Phoenix as an 8-point underdog on Monday. San Antonio (19-56) has lost four in a row after their 137-93 loss at Boston as a 16.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent losing streak, Utah is only 1 1/2 games out of the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after a point spread loss. The Spurs’ four-game losing streak has involved defeats by 12 or more points each time — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after losing two or more games in a row by double-digits. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not covering the points pad in four or more games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio may be just what the doctor ordered for this Jazz team still playing hard for head coach Will Hardy. Utah will want to avenge a 102-94 loss at home to the Spurs on February 28th. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). THE SITUATION: Dallas (37-39) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 127-104 win at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (49-26) has lost three in a row — and four of their last five — after a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks stepped to make 56.6% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last 36 games. But Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better from the field in their last game. Despite that effort, the Mavericks are only scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions in their last ten games, ranking 23rd in the league over that span. The acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not worked in generating a healthy and cohesive “big two” with Luka Doncic who recently conceded he is miserable right now. Dallas is too reliant on making 3s — they lead the NBA by attempting 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They make 37.2% of their 3s which ranks ninth in the league — but it comes at the expense of being last in the NBA in rebounding. The Mavericks pull down only 22.9% of their missed shots, the lowest mark in the league. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point-spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. On the road, the Mavericks have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when the total is set at 230 or higher. An encouraging development for head coach Jason Kidd’s team was the play of their defense as they held the Pacers to 41.9% shooting. The Mavs’ defense has been bad this year — but a better effort on that end can make a difference. Dallas is tied for the last spot in the Western Conference playoff race — they would lose out to Oklahoma City to qualify for the play-in game so this is an important contest. The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia will want to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. Philly has seen a dip in their 3-point shooting — they are making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. But the Sixers are defending the perimeter better as of late as they rank second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Back at home, the 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Joel Embiid and James Harden are listed as questionable tonight with nagging injuries. While Embiid is an MVP candidate who excels at both ends of the court, Harden’s potential absence certainly helps our Under play. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-37) has won five games in a row after their 124-90 victory at Portland as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Golden State (39-37) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 99-96 upset loss to Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans shot 57.0% from the field yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last 46 contests — so expect a visit from the Regression Gods. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Pelicans have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Golden State has played two straight Unders — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They stay at home where they have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Warriors rank third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Golden State Under the Total. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-36) has lost two of their last three games after their 131-110 upset loss to New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (36-38) has won two games in a row and five of their last six games after their 118-108 upset loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles allowed the Pelicans to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But the Clippers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. This team is without Paul George for the next few weeks after he injured his ankle — but they still have a healthy Kawhi Leonard who is playing at a top level right now. The Clippers have lost seven in a row and fourteen of their last seventeen games when Leonard is not playing. Chicago is playing better basketball since acquiring Patrick Beverley — they crushed Portland on the road by a 124-96 win in their previous game before their upset win against the Lakers. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a  row by ten or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay in Los Angeles having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road against teams from the Western Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (511) and the Sacramento Kings (512). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (38-37) has won three straight games after their 99-96 upset win at Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Sacramento (45-29) has won five of their last six games after their 121-113 win against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:  The Timberwolves made only 42.5% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. But they pulled off the upset by holding the Warriors to just 41.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Minnesota’s previous four opponents all shot 52.9% or better against them. The T-Wolves have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after playing their previous game on the road. They have played 21 of their last 31 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Sacramento has won two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home after winning two games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total at home after a point spread loss. The Kings have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 4th when Sacramento won by a 138-134 score as a 4-point underdog. These two teams have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Sacramento. 8* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (511) and the Sacramento Kings (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.