At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). THE SITUATION: Indiana (33-27) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 130-122 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (35-24) had their two-game losing streak snapped in their 115-92 victory in New York against the Knicks as a 6-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana comes off one of their worst games of the season. They only made 46.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. And they allowed the Raptors to make 55.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games for allowing 130 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss at home. Indiana has still covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning two of their last three games. This is their fourth game since the return from the All-Star Break — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. All three of those previous games were at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their previous three games at home. They host an undermanned Pelicans team that will be without C.J. McCollum who is nursing an ankle injury. It looks like Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram will take the court tonight after being listed as questionable with their nagging injuries — but depth will still be an issue with Dyson Daniels out with a knee and Jose Alvarado suspended. New Orleans held the Knicks to just 37.3% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 57 contests going all the way back to the second game of the season. But the Pelicans have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win. New Orleans has won five of their last seven games — but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games against teams with a winning record — and the Pacers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA New Orleans-Indiana ESPN Special with the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). THE SITUATION: Orlando (32-26) had won three games in a row before their 109-92 loss at Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (22-35) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-86 win at Memphis as a 2-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Paolo Banchero has been declared out for tonight’s game with an illness — and that almost was enough for me to dismiss what was initially an intriguing situational spot for Orlando. But the odds have dropped a couple of points from a line that was already shaded down a bit with his status questionable for this game from the overnight line. Checking the deeper analytics, the Magic are actually getting outscored by -1.4 Points Per 100 Possessions when Banchero is on the court — and they are then outscoring their opponents by +6.5 Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. The difference comes from Banchero’s shaky play on defense — Orlando allows -8.6 fewer Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. As it is, the Magic have something to prove tonight after their loss on Sunday where they only made 41.7% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The absence of Banchero tonight allows for Franz Wagner to step up and continue his good month — he has made 51.5% of his shots in February resulting in 22.3 Points-Per-Game. The Magic return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Brooklyn nailed 48.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Even better, the Nets held the Grizzlies to just 38.7% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last 18 contests. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Magic want to avenge a 129-101 loss at Brooklyn back on December 2nd as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 opportunities for revenge in a game where they allowed 110 or more points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). THE SITUATION: Utah (26-28) has lost two games in a row after their 129-107 loss to Golden State as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (30-26) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests after their 125-111 victory against Detroit as a 10-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers will be undermanned tonight with them playing without a day of rest before the All-Star break. LeBron James is taking a load management night off to probably rest up for the All-Star Game with the official designation being that he is dealing with an undisclosed injury. Los Angeles has already been without Cam Reddish, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Max Christie is also tonight with a right ankle sprain — but Anthony Davis is going to give it a go tonight after being listed as questionable with his right ankle all day. The Lakers did not make any moves at the trade deadline — but they did pick up Spencer Dinwiddie off waivers after he was dropped by Toronto soon after acquiring him at the trade deadline. But roster depth is an issue for this team — and they are much worse without James. They outscore their opponents by +2.0 points per 100 possessions when James is on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.2 points per 100 possessions without James. This biggest loss is on the offensive end of the court where they drop by -7.0 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers made 51.2% of their shots against the Pistons on the heels of nailing 55.7% of their shots in their previous game against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row at home — and they have to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 12-17 record while getting outscored by -3.7 Points-Per-Game. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah (26-28) has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Jazz were sellers at the trade deadline by dealing away role players Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio for draft capital — but they are still competing for the Play-In Tournament to get some postseason experience rather than embracing a soft tank to improve their draft position. Utah stays at home where they have a 17-8 record with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They are making 48.1% of their shots on their home court resulting in 123.2 PPG. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when continuing a home stand. They have covered the point spread in 14  of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers want to avenge a 132-125 loss at Utah in the last meetings between these two teams on January 13th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 22 opportunities for same-season revenge this season. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (30-22) has lost three of their last four games after their 127-113 win at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (31-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 113-112 upset loss at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. And while they had covered the point spread in their three previous games, the Suns have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Phoenix returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings want to avenge a 119-117 loss in Phoenix to the Suns back on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Sacramento-Phoenix TNT Special with the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (29-21) has won three games in a row after their 138-100 win against Toronto as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Los Angeles (34-15) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests after their 149-144 win at Atlanta as a 4-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans made 51.0% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last contest. New Orleans has also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Pelicans go back on the road where they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Los Angeles made 58.4% of their shots on Monday against the Hawks in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Clippers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 145 or more points in their last game. They did allow Atlanta to shoot 53.7% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. That game concluded a long seven-game road trip — so this team may not have worked their hardest on the defensive end of the court against a Hawks team that does not play great defense. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 225 or more combined points were scored. They return home to play their eighth game since January 26th — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have played 39 of their last 65 games Under the Total at home at Crypto.com Arena — and they have played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles held the Pelicans to an effective field goal percentage of 39.9% in a 111-95 win on the road which was New Orleans' worst offensive performance of the season — and now Zion Williamson is questionable to play tonight with a foot injury. The Clippers make 49.7% of their shots and lead the NBA with a 39.9% clip from behind the arc. The Pelicans have played 24 of their last 33 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make 46% or more of their shots — and they have played 18 of their last 22 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who are shooting 36% or better from 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-19) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 123-115 upset victory at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cleveland (31-16) has won five games in a row as well as 13 of their last 14 contests with their 117-101 victory at San Antonio as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 50% of their shots on Saturday which came on the heels of shooting 56.7% from the field in their previous game at Indiana — but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning their last two games away from home. In their last five games, the Kings have not allowed more than 115 points in four of those contests. They have held their last five opponents to 46.3% shooting resulting in 112.3 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -2.1% and -5.3 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento is playing at a slower pace on the road where they average 103.1 possessions per game — down -2.1 possessions from their season average. The Kings also play better defense on the road where they are posting an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.7 as opposed to their 118.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Sacramento has played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 31 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Cleveland raced out to a 67-45 halftime lead against the Spurs on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points in their game. The Cavaliers have also played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing their two previous games Under the Total. Cleveland has not allowed more than 108 points in four of their last five games — and they have held those five opponents to 43.8% shooting resulting in 108.2 PPG. The defense certainly got a boost with the return of center Evan Mobley in their last three games. The Cavaliers have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.3 in their last 15 contests which is the best mark in the league during that span. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s.  

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 132-120 upset loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog back on November 23rd. The Cavaliers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (32-15) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 136-125 victory at Detroit as a 12-point favorite on Friday. Miami (26-23) has won two games in a row after their 110-102 victory at Washington as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles defeated the Pistons despite allowing them to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Los Angeles offensive attack is nearly unstoppable as they made 59.6% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting 55% or better from the field. There were early bumps in the road — but head coach Tyronn Lue has figured out how to incorporate James Harden into the lineup. Usage is down for everyone from their previous levels — but this has helped Harden and Paul George be more efficient when they do have the basketball. Russell Westbrook has accepted the role of coming off the bench — and he is thriving on the second unit. And Kawhi Leonard is playing as well as he has at any time in his career. Since the first five games when Harden joined the team, the Clippers lead the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc with Leonard, George, Harden, and Norman Powell all making more than 40% of their 3s. They have a 29-8 record in their last 37 games — and they enjoyed a Net Efficiency Rating of +9.7 in January. Los Angeles has scored at least 125 or more points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after scoring 125 or more points in two or more games in a row including five of those six circumstances this season. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Los Angeles may get Ivica Zubac back on the court after being upgraded to questionable for this game — he has missed the last nine contests with a right calf injury. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games road as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 8 games against teams winning 51-60% of their games, Los Angeles has covered the point spread 7 times. Miami had endured a seven-game losing streak before winning their last two games — and that was the longest losing run in Eric Spoelstra’s tenure as their head coach. The Heat are struggling on both ends of the court. They hoped to add offense by trading for Terry Rozier from Charlotte but he has been a disappointment so far — and he has only scored 18 combined points in their two-game winning streak so it’s not as if he finally unlocked something for the team. The Heat did hold the Wizards to 41.1% shooting but that was their best defensive effort in their last nine games. Miami has played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against teams from the Western Conference opponents. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games as a dog. The Clippers are making 49.6% of their shots — and Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. To compound matters to Miami, they will be without Duncan Robinson who has missed the previous three games in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Miami wants to avenge a 121-104 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 8-point underdog on January 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when attempting to avenge a loss when their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Miami ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (32-15) has lost two straight games after their 107-101 upset loss against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Denver (33-15) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 113-107 victory against Milwaukee as a 4-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 44.3% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Thunder have bounced back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after losing by six points or less. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games when favored. Denver will be without Nikola Jokic tonight as he is nursing a sore lower back. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games winning four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver wants to avenge a 119-93 loss at home to Thunder as a 1.5-point favorite back on December 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against divisional rivals. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (26-16) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (31-13) has won six of their last seven games with that win at home against the Cavaliers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland made 50.5% of their shots which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They also allowed the Bucks to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last ten contests. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four contests. And while they complete their four-game road trip they started last Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when playing for the fourth time in seven days. Despite being without Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for about six weeks, Cleveland is playing very good basketball. The spacing has been better for Donovan Mitchell who has carried this team on the offensive of the court. On defense, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has forced an identity for this group based on effort and tenacity. They had held four straight opponents to less than 100 points before the Bucks scored 126 on Wednesday. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting resulting in 101.2 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Milwaukee was in a celebratory mood on Wednesday with new pre-game dance routines after their Wicked Witch of the West, first-year head coach Adrian Griffin got fired. While Doc Rivers has been hired to replace him, it will be interim head coach Joe Prunty in charge once again tonight. The Bucks had not covered the point spread in five straight games before Wednesday but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Play on the defensive end of the court has been the problem for this team — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 128.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games on their home court. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in January. And while the Cavaliers are outscoring their opponents by 3.9 PPG, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA  Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-91 loss at Cleveland on Monday. Toronto (16-25) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-97 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raptors were undermanned last night because of injuries and their big trade with Indiana that sent away Pascal Siakam. While last night was a nice accomplishment, the challenge will be even tougher tonight playing with a limited bench with a day of rest. Toronto acquired Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, and Kira Lewis, Jr. yesterday but these players will not be available to play tonight. With Jakob Poetl and Otto Porter, Jr. out with injuries, the Raptors will have a thin bench supporting Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley. As it is, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a victory by 20 or more points. And while the Raptors have not allowed more than 105 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Toronto has covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Chicago only made 42.2% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their seven games this season after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season after a double-digit loss to a Central Division rival. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have gotten nice production from Zach LaVine after there were some concerns that he would disrupt the chemistry that had developed after he missed extended time with an injury. The Bulls have won four of their six games since he returned to action — and he has scored 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 42.4% of his 3-pointers in his last five games. He has also shown more intensity on the defensive end of the court. Despite their recent play on defense, the Raptors are still allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots this season — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 48% or higher. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 121-108 loss at Toronto as a 5.5-point underdog on November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities for revenge. 10* NBA Chicago-Toronto TNT Special with the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-13) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 124-115 victory against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite yesterday. Denver (28-13) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 117-109 victory against Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Joel Embiid returned to action yesterday after missing the previous three games — and he scored 41 points and added 10 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Embiid has scored at least 30 points and pulled down at least 10 boards for the 16th straight game. Now Embiid has an opportunity to showcase his talents on TNT tonight — and he usually is very motivated in situations like this. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a straight-up victory. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their home court. Philadelphia is a balanced team that ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and those numbers take into account Embiid missing 11 games due to injury this season. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. Denver nailed 64.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Sunday which was the best shooting effort for them all season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. They go back on the road where they are just 11-9 this season with an average winning margin of just +0.2 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Denver allows their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots — and they have been playing loose on the defensive end of the court as of late. The Nuggets’ last five opponents are making 49.2% of their shots resulting in 116.4 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season defensive scoring average. The 76ers are undermanned tonight with De’Andre Melton, Robert Covington, and some role players out tonight — and this is why the point spread is as low as it is. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut that scores 116.2 PPG on 49.8% shooting — but the 76ers usually perform well against these types of teams. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who score at least 116 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 games against teams who shoot 48% or better from the field. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). THE SITUATION: Chicago (18-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 140-131 loss to Golden State as a 3-point favorite last night. San Antonio (7-30) has won two games in a row after their 135-99 victory against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago allowed the Warriors to nail 52% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. That game was just the fifth time in three seasons when the Bulls gave up at least 135 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those previous 4 situations. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. Head coach Billy Donovan is not resting any players despite the back-to-back contest tonight — but the same cannot be said for Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. Victor Wembanyama is getting the night off which means they will be without their best player — and that leaves them undermanned with three other players in the rotation out with injuries including starter Zach Collins. San Antonio played their best defensive contest in their last seven contests by holding the Hornets to only 36.0% shooting. But the Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 18 games played without rest this season. Additionally, San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). THE SITUATION: Denver (26-13) lost two of their last three games after their 124-111 upset loss at Utah as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. New Orleans (23-15) has won six of their last seven contests with their 141-105 victory at Golden State as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver may have played their worst game on Wednesday since winning the NBA championship last June. They only make 45.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Their defensive performance was even worse with the Jazz’s 55.4% shooting percentage being the worst opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss against a Northwest Division rival. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Nuggets return home where they have a 15-4 record with an average winning margin of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. They should enjoy a much game on the offensive end of the court as they make 51.0% of their shots including 38.7% of their launches from behind the arc resulting in 120.5 PPG. Nikola Jokic usually dominates the Pelicans Jonas Valanciunas as well. In his last ten meetings against Valanciunas, he is scoring 30.6 PPG while adding 14.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 10.7 Assists-Per-Game. Denver has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while the Pelicans have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. New Orleans plays for the third time in a row on the road as they continue a six-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last seven games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans had four starters listed as questionable earlier today — but all four are expected to play tonight. Still, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds tonight after losing on the road in New Orleans to this team by a 115-110 score as a 4.5-point favorite on November 17th. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). THE SITUATION: Houston (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 124-119 loss at Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Detroit (3-35) has lost six games in a row after their 130-108 loss at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Bulls to just 44.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Despite that performance, Houston’s play on that end of the court has collapsed since Dillon Brooks injured his abdomen on December 26th. The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in three of their last four games. Houston has played 25 of their last 39 road games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Detroit allowed the Spurs to make 52.1% of their shots which was actually the lowest opponent field goal percentage posted against them in their last three games. The Pistons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing each of their last three opponents to make 47% or better from the field. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Detroit has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons look to avenge a 136-111 loss in Houston against the Rockets on January 1st — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 138-135 win against Orlando in overtime as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (14-20) has won two games in a row after their 116-111 upset victory at Memphis as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 20 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in two of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 135 or more points in their last contest. Head coach Mike Brown recently made a lineup change by inserting Chis Duarte into the starting lineup for Kevin Huerter. Duarte is a high-energy player who does not need the ball in his hands — and Huerter can get more scoring opportunities with the second unit facing the opponent’s reserves. De’Aaron Fox is making a strong claim to be worthy of the first-team All-NBA after improving his 3-point shooting from 32.4% to 39% this season. They stay at home where they make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 121.7 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto has received a short-term bump after trading OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley last Saturday. Quickley has thrived as the team’s point guard taking over for Gary Trent in the starting lineup. But Barrett continues to struggle with his shooting. They are both good defenders — but this could be a matchup where they miss Anunoby’s outstanding defense in the frontcourt against Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes. Head coach Darko Rajakovic is using more small lineups since the trade but there may be some growing pains on the horizon since Toronto was playing big for the last year and a half. The Raptors did play their best game on the defensive end of the court on Wednesday by holding the Grizzlies to just 42.6% shooting — but while that game finished just Under the 227.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Toronto has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contests -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. They stay on the road where they have just a 5-11 record while allowing their home hosts to make 49.1% of their shots resulting in 117.6 PPG. The Raptors have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Trading away Anunoby may be the first step to improving this Raptors roster that seemed to be spinning their wheels — but I think the matchup improves for the Kings since they can struggle with their rim protection on defense. Toronto allows their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 48% or higher. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). THE SITUATION: Golden State (16-17) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 121-115 victory against Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver (24-11) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 111-93 win against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has invested more playing time into the younger players on the roster given the erratic play of some of the veterans along with the suspension of Draymond Green — and players like Jonathan Kuminga are taking advantage of the opportunity. Golden State has won six of their last nine games. The Warriors will be rested for this game with it being just their fourth game since Christmas Day — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when not playing for more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 64 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home when an underdog of up to six points. And in their last 7 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Golden State has covered the point spread 6 times. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in five days. While they have a 14-3 record at home after completing a four-game home stand, they go back on the road where they are just 10-8 with an average winning margin of +0.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games at home. Golden State is outrebounding their opponents by +3.8 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have won five straight games against the Warriors after their 120-114 win at home as a 7-point favorite against them on Christmas Day. Golden State has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent including covering the point spread six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (20-12) has won three games in a row as well as 12 of their last 14 games after their 121-104 victory against Miami as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix (18-15) has won four games in a row after their 109-88 win against Portland as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is clicking now with James Harden in the mix — head coach Ty Lue has found the right pace of play to take advantage of the talent and Harden has developed chemistry and comfort with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard missed four games in a row recently but he is back in the mix after he scored 24 points against the Heat on Monday. The Clippers nailed 58.7% of their shots in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games at home. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Phoenix has Bradley Beal back on the court after he has dealt with back issues — not now they will be without Kevin Durant who is nursing a hamstring injury. The Suns held the Trail Blazers to 45.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will have revenge on their mind in their first opportunity to play the Suns after losing to them in the playoffs last April in five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (24-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 112-106 upset loss at New York as a 1-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (20-14) has won three games in a row after their 112-85 victory against Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota made only 47.3% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. Don’t blame Anthony Edwards who scored 35 points in the losing effort — he is on a heater by scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. Minnesota has not lost back-to-back games all season — and they have a net point differential of +10.7 Points-Per-Game following a loss this season. The T-Wolves lead the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.2 — and they rank fifth in net Adjusted Efficiency margin this year. They have played a winning team in eight of their last ten games — and they have a 7-3 record in those ten games. Minnesota has a 14-1 record at home with a net point differential of +11.0 PPGG. They rank third at home in net Adjusted Efficiency margin. They are making 49.0 of their shots at home resulting in 113.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 41.4% shooting resulting in just 102.0 PPG on their home court. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has played only one opponent with a winning record in their last ten games. The Pelicans held the Nets to just 35.7% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. And while they have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread as the favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning and covering the point spread in two more games in a row. Now after completing their five-game home stand, they go back on the road — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after winning three games in a row at home. They remain without Trey Murphy who is dealing with a knee injury — and his absence is significant since his outside shooting opens things up inside to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. New Orleans has a +15.6 net Adjusted Efficiency margin when Murphy is on the court — and that mark plummets to just +0.9 when he is off the court.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has a 2-1 record against New Orleans this season — but they are looking to avenge a 121-107 loss on the road to the Pelicans as a 4-point favorite on December 11th. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points including six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 105-92 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (15-19) has won five of their last seven contests with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has been without Joel Embiid with an injury since Christmas Day — but he is expected to return to the court for this rematch tonight. As it is, the 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They only made 39.1% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for the worst shooting for them all season. Philly has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.7 Points-Per-Game by scoring 123.6 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite. Chicago made 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And by holding the Sixers to 39.1% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive game in their last 22 contests. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games on the road after a double-digit victory. Chicago has only scored 209 combined points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. And while they have played six straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Bulls have been playing better since Zach LaVine suffered his foot injury in late November which suggests his time with the team is short. But now they are dealing with a groin injury to Nikola Vucevic which leaves them thin in their frontcourt when attempting to defend Embiid.   

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 20* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). THE SITUATION: Houston (15-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 123-117 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 3-point favorite on December 26th. Phoenix (14-15) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests with their 128-114 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston played their worst game of the season last night by allowing the Pacers to nail 52.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage against them all year. The Rockets are ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they are holding their guests to just 42.3% shooting resulting in only 101.8 Points-Per-Game when they are playing at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games at home this season. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Suns have not covered the point spread in six straight contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss a home. Now the Suns go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 220s. The plan was for the big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to form a super team that would overcome the lack of depth — a by-product of their exorbitant contracts. Beal has played in only three games this season -- and now Durant is complaining again because, like Russell Wilson, it’s never, ever his fault.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 home games this season as an underdog. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-104 upset loss to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (9-19) has won three games in a row after their 125-119 win at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 46.3% of their shots against the Rockets on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They should shoot better tonight — the return of Trey Murphy from injury gives the team the outside shooting threat it craved to open up space inside for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to drive to the hole. The Pelicans are still making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 119.6 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after a loss at home in their previous contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis has won all three of their games since Ja Morant completed his 25-game suspension. They nailed 51.5% of their shots against the Hawks on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Grizzlies have not been reliable not reliable on the road relative to point spread expectations with Morant on the court. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games as an underdog -- and that includes them finishing last season on a 5-18 ATS run with Morant as an underdog before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and 23 of those games go back to last season with Morant given their 4-6 ATS mark as a road dog this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points after covering the point spread once in their four road games getting up to six points this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against Southwest Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at home to Memphis as an 8-point underdog on December 19th in Morant’s season debut — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-14) has lost four games in a row after their 121-102 loss to New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (19-10) has won two straight games and five of their last six after a 113-104 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on the Nets in their cross-town rivalry game — but we got caught with some buzzard’s luck as they made only 36.6% of their shots in what was the worst offensive effort of the season. Brooklyn should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to an Atlantic Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss at home. The Nets should shoot closer to their 46.5% field goal percentage tonight. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver opened the season on fire with a 9-2 record — but they have since posted a pedestrian 10-8 record. They have won their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. The championship hangover seems to have impacted this group as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, the Nuggets have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have just an 8-8 record as opposed to their 11-2 record at home at the Bell Center. They are only outscoring their home hosts by +0.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -4.8 fewer Points-Per-Game on the road with their 47.6% shooting percentage -1.4% below their season average. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn will be looking to avenge a 124-101 loss in Denver as a 9.5-point favorite on December 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent including covering the point spread in five of those last six circumstances. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.         

At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). THE SITUATION: Dallas (16-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 130-104 loss at Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (16-10) has won eight straight games after their 151-127 victory at Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas may have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Nuggets to make 56.3% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort for the new campaign. They also only made 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Los Angeles nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Clippers have made at least 50.6% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making 47% or more of their shots in five or more games in a row. Paul George has been ruled out tonight with an illness. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in four straight games while laying the points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in six of their last seven contests with James Harden finding his role with his new team after getting traded from Philadelphia — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-13) has lost three straight games after their 125-108 upset loss at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (15-11) has won two of their last three contests after their 114-109 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks come off an emotional victory against the Lakers which was a personal revenge spot for Julius Randle facing his previous team. They held Los Angeles to just 42.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. The team endured challenging traveling circumstances after staying over in Los Angeles Monday night before traveling cross country yesterday. Now they finish their five-game road stand against their cross-town rivals. Consistency has not been a strength of this team that has up-and-down players like R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Randle. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games after a victory by six points or less. New York is playing without Mitchell Robinson who is out another two months with an ankle injury. Not only is Robinson the lynchpin of the Knicks' defense as their primary rim protector, but he also leads the NBA by pulling down 5.3 offensive rebounds per game. New York is thin at center with backup Jericho Sims now also out with an ankle injury. The Knicks are getting outscored by -0.7 net Points-Per-Game while allowing their home hosts to make 48.5% of their missed shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn allowed the Jazz to make 49.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Nets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.8 PPG.  The Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court at the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has a +1.1 Adjusted Net Rating this season despite one of the more difficult opening schedules in the league — and they post a +7.7 Adjusted Net Rating when playing at home. After Cam Thomas missed time due to an injury, he has returned to action and leads the team by scoring 24 PPG. Head coach Jacque Vaughn encourages his team to bomb away from 3 — the Nets rank fifth in the NBA by getting 37.9% of their points from behind the arc and they are second in the league by nailing 38.7% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who are making 36% or more of their 3-pointers. And while New York allows their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Underdog of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (16-7) has won three of their last four games after their 133-129 victory in overtime against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Indiana (13-9) has won four of their last five games after their 131-123 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The encouraging aspect of that victory was they played one of their better games on defense by holding the Bulls to just 41.2% shooting. Defense has been the biggest issue that first-year head coach Adrian Griffin needs to focus on moving forward. The Pacers nailed 56.5% of their shots against the Pistons which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing a Central Division rival in their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against a division rival.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be motivated to avenge their 128-119 upset loss against the Pacers as a 5-point favorite on December 7th in the In-Season Tournament Semifinals in Las Vegas which followed up their 126-124 upset loss in Indiana in their previous meeting this season on November 9th. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-8) has lost two games in a row after their 111-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Houston (9-9) snapped their three-game losing streak with the 110-101 upset win against Oklahoma City as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 41.8% of their shots against the Clippers which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Jamal Murray did return to the court in that game and scored 23 points in a losing effort. After missing ten games early in the season, Murray returned in the Nuggets’ game against the Rockets on November 29th before wrenching his ankle which kept him out another two contests. Denver has an 8-2 record when Murray plays this season. After completing their three-game road trip, the Nuggets return home where they have been dominant with a 9-0 record with a +11.0 net point differential. Denver’s role players are more effective when playing at home — and the Nuggets offensive attack is nearly unstoppable when playing at the Bell Center. They are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which is generating 121.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams from the Southwest Division. Houston held the Thunder to joust 42.5% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 road games after an upset victory as a home underdog.  Houston may be the most improved team in the league this season - -and they have been particularly tough to beat at home where they have a 9-1 record. They rank second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 102.2 when playing on their home court. But things change dramatically when they go on the road where they are the only winless team left this season. The Rockets are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG — and they plummet to 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 118.8. Jalen Green has been much better at home as well where he is making 45.2% of his shots and 37.1% of his shots from behind the arc — but he is shooting just 38.4% when on the road with a 31.9% mark from 3-point range. Houston has a 9-8 record on the road with a -9.0 net point differential. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has revenge on their mind after losing in Denver against the Nuggets by a 134-124 score on November 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). THE SITUATION:  Sacramento (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 127-117 upset loss to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament on Monday. Phoenix (12-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 1.5-point underdog in the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Kings only made 44.7% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — and they allowed New Orleans to shoot 54.0% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a loss at home. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have allowed their last four opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after allowing four straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix has been without Bradley Beal who has only played three games this season — and they will also be without Kevin Durant and Grayson Allen tonight as they deal with nagging injuries. The Suns played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday as they held the Lakers to just 37.3% shooting — and their 49.3% shooting percentage was the best mark for them in their last five contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in five days. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in the Semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-10) has won three of their last four games after their 127-117 upset victory at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Monday in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. Los Angeles (13-9) has won three of their last four games after their 106-103 victory at home against Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday in their In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals contest. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans is better than their record given some injuries they sustained early on. C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado have missed time — but perhaps it was the absence of Trey Murphy that was the biggest blow to this team since his outshooting is critical to this team. With Murphy back on the court, opposing teams have to account for his outside shooting — and that opens up space for Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in the paint. Ingram scored 30 points against the Kings on Monday and Williamson has been playing as well as he did in his outstanding second season in the league before injuries began to hold him back. The Pelicans have a remarkable +31.7 Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin in their 101 possessions with Murphy healthy and on the court this season. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They have made 49.4% or more of their shots in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight contests. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after beating a Pacific Division in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a straight-up win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a victory by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games in a row — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. The Lakers have been feasting against the lesser teams in the league — they have only one victory against a top-ten team in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin -- and their strength of schedule rates as the 11th easiest in the league. There is a notion that the Lakers will have a “home court advantage” with this game being played in Las Vegas which is “just” a four-hour drive on I-15 from Los Angeles. While I do think the Lakers will enjoy the crowd edge tonight, I find home advantages coming mostly from familiarity with the court (or field) and the convenience of being at home — and while there are times when the cheering crowd can help a team (or impact the opponent), I doubt the Vegas crowd will achieve that tonight. Jeff Sherman at the SportsBook at Westgate and the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas only assigned a half point for the Lakers for a crowd edge tonight in response to the market.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (6-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 123-117 loss to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (7-14) has won two games in a row after their 124-118 win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball for a few weeks given a right ankle injury he suffered last week. While Charlotte needs their point forward back to have any serious designs on making the Play-In Tournament, head coach Steve Clifford has some viable options to replace his production in the short term. Terry Rozier has missed some time with injuries — but he is back and can run the offense in Ball’s absence. Rozier scored 37 points in a win against Brooklyn last Thursday after the Ball injury. He has scored 23.3 Points-Per-Game in his last four games. The Ball injury also allows for rookie Brandon Miller to get more playing time — he has been solid so far this season and looks much better than Scoot Henderson who they bypassed with the second pick in the NBA draft. The Hornets also have Miles Bridges back after he completed his 30-game suspension for his domestic violence issues — he has scored 20.5 PPG and added 7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game since his return. Charlotte was competitive against a red-hot Timberwolves team without Ball on Saturday as they held a four-point lead with under five minutes to go before blowing that game. The key for this team in the short term is to simply play better on defense. They allowed Minnesota to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games and second-worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. The Hornets will benefit from the extra days off — look for them to push the pace against a Bulls team that has the sixth-oldest roster in the league (and they play at the slowest pace in the NBA). Charlotte has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Chicago has pulled off two straight upset victories with a win against Milwaukee with their triumph against the Pelicans on Saturday. The Bulls nailed 54.5% of tighter shots which was the best shooting effort of the season for them. They are playing with Zach LaVine who is dealing with a foot injury — and that may have opened up the offense with more of their field goals coming from passes rather than isolation. Their hot shooting overcame a 35-15 deficit in free throw attempts to New Orleans — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outshot at the free throw line by 20 or more shots at the charity stripe. Chicago has been wildly inconsistent this season with rumors abound that management is primed to break up the core of this team. Their victory against the Pelicans was the first time all season has won two games in a row. The Bulls' play on defense has been underwhelming as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG. Chicago has been unreliable as a favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored while failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are scoring only 107.7 PPG — and the Hornets have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 42 games against teams who do not score more than 108 PPG. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 106-103 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Los Angeles (11-8) has won two of their last three games after their 133-107 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 41.1% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 contests and tied for the worst field goal percentage for the season. They also got outrebounded by a 51-36 margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have still covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games. Oklahoma City will likely be without Josh Giddey tonight given the police investigation that he was involved with a minor — but the Lakers will have several absences as well. Los Angeles is without Rui Hachimura, Jarred Valentine, and Gabe Vincent are out with injuries while Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish are questionable. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win on the road. And in their last 18 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and the Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost two games in a row after their 115-103 loss at Brooklyn as a 1-point underdog last night. Phoenix (11-6) has won seven games in a row after their 116-113 upset win at New York against the Knicks as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 38.6% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.8. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 38.0% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 18.9 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of            Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix’s upset win against the Knicks cashed the over for bettors who had tickets at 218.5 — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games on the road after playing a game that went Over the Total. The team is adjusting to their first-year head coach Frank Vogel — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when on a seven-game or more winning streak. Phoenix comes into this game at less than full strength with Bradley Beal still out for this team with a back injury. Kevin Durant is questionable with a foot injury that has kept him out the last two games — and Grayson Allen is questionable with an illness. The Suns have a big game on deck two days from now against Denver so they may be looking ahead as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Raptors are shooting 46.4% from the field this season — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams making 46% or more of their shots from the field. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of            Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on  Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on  Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.

FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-5) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 129-93 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans (7-7) has won three of their last four games after that contest.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Sacramento might have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Pelicans to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Their 37.9% shooting was their worst field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they got outrebounded by a 55-36 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards. Sacramento has a 6-2 record with De’Aaron Fox healthy — he missed five games due to injury. They have an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.1 when he is on the court — and their Adjusted Net Efficiency plummets to -3.9 without him. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher including four of those five circumstances this season. New Orleans played their best game of the young season in their 36-point victory on Monday. Their 54.3% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort of the season — and the Kings’ 37.9% shooting clip was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Pelicans all year. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit upset win as a home underdog. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while New Orleans has made at least 51.1% of their shots in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five or more games in a row. The Pelicans remained undermanned with C.J. McCollum out with a collapsed lung and Trey Murphy out with a knee injury. Larry Nance, Jr. is questionable with a rib injury. The Kings may be without Keegan Murray who is questionable with a back injury.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 road games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (11-3) was on a six-game winning streak before their 121-118 upset loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (10-4) has won five games in a row with their 142-129 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jayson Tatum has been listed as questionable all day dealing with a non-COVID illness — but the team has announced he is available to play tonight and he looked good in the video I saw of him taking 3-pointers in the shoot around early this evening. Boston only made 43.3% of their shots on Monday in what was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning four of their last five games. This Boson team leads the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin of +10.8. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season by nailing 58.5% of their shots on Monday. While the Bucks have made at least 51.8% of their shots in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four or more games in a row. The Bucks have scored at least 128 points in four straight contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 125 or more points in four straight contests. The problem for this team is on the other end of the court where they rank 22nd in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 116.2 — and they will be without Jae Crowder who is one of their better defensive players tonight due to an abdominal injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as the dog. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has won two games in a row after their 121-99 win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (7-6) is on a three-game winning streak after their 121-109 upset win against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 12 games — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games after winning two games in a row. And in their last 35 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest, they have covered the point spread in 24 of those games. The Sixers return home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games at home when favored. Cleveland nailed 54.9% of their shots on Sunday in their upset victory against the Nuggets. They have shot at least 51.2% from the field in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after making at least 50% of their shots from the field in three straight games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Cleveland’s defense has taken a step back this season. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, they have dropped to 12th in the league this season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.5. The Cavs are not at 100% given some injuries — most notably Donovan Mitchell is out with a hamstring injury and Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Cleveland-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (6-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 142-113 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Orlando (8-5) has won three games in a row after their 128-116 upset victory at Indiana as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Magic have pulled off three straight upset victories after beating the Chicago Bulls in back-to-back games before their contest with the Pacers. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a road dog. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win. They come into this game undermanned with two starters out due to the injuries to Markelle Fultz and Wendall Carter, Jr. Those two absences will put even more pressure on their struggling offensive attack that ranks just 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.6. After completing a four-game road trip, Orlando returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory at home by 20 or more points. The Raptors match up well against the Magic with four forwards in their starting lineup — Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes who could all defend Orlando’s pair of 6’10 big men in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. First-year head coach Darko Rajakovic has his team playing even better defense than the group that ranked tied for tenth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. Toronto has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.3 this season after posting a 113.1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark last year. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams remain alive for this In-Season Tournament thing — so both teams should have motivation. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-110 upset loss at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (6-6) has won two games in a row after their 108-100 win at home against Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Pelicans to nail 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have played four straight Unders, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders this season — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Denver is scoring only 107.8 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -6.3 PPG below their season average. They are holding their home hosts to just 106.2 PPG. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. After making 56.0% of their shots at Portland on Wednesday, the Cavaliers shot 51.2% from the field against the Pistons. The Cavs have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have played 4 of their 5 home games Under the Total this season. Their 106.4 PPG scoring average at home is -3.9 PPG below their season average — and they are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG at home which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. They have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are missing key scorers with Jamal Murray out with a hamstring injury for the Nuggets and Donovan Mitchell out with a hamstring injury for Cleveland. The Cavs’ Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has won six games in a row after their 107-104 upset victory against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-7) has lost six games in a row after their 111-108 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Nuggets to 46.2% shooting which was the opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — and Denver’s 104 points were the most points they allowed in that five-game stretch. First-year head coach Ime Udoka has this young team playing great defense. They added Dillon Brooks via free agency who made the All-Defensive second team for Memphis last year. They also added Fred VanVleet in free agency who provides the team veteran leadership with an NBA championship. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting which has resulted in only 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Houston has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. They also have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by six points were less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. The Rockets are scoring 111.0 PPG this season — but their scoring drops by -7.0 PPG by averaging just 104.0 PPG when on the road. Los Angeles continues to struggle as they attempt to incorporate James Harden into their rotation. He is working off some rust after not playing in the preseason. They rank 29th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since acquiring him from Philadelphia. With Harden on the court, they are playing at a slower pace to accommodate his tendency to dribble the ball in isolation against a defender before deciding to launch a jumper or drive the lane — they rank 26th in pace with him. The Clippers are making just 44.7% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 105.0 PPG. But after Los Angeles allowed the Nuggets to make 53.4% of their shots on Tuesday, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season, they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 43.6% shooting and just 100.2 PPG. They have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). THE SITUATION: New York (5-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-98 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (6-4) has won two of their last three games in their 126-120 victory at Detroit as a 4.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York probably played their worst game of the season on Monday. Their 41.8% shooting percentage was their lowest mark in their last four games, They also allowed the Celtics to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Knicks are still playing outstanding defense this season — they rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight — even without R.J. Barrett who will miss this game (too) as he deals with migraine headaches. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a division opponent. After a slow start to the season, Julius Randle is playing better by scoring 24.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game in his last four contests. Jalen Brunson is scoring 22.0 PPG this season while nailing 43% of his shots from behind the arc while adding 4.3 Assists-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games on the road. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots last night against the Pistons which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Trae Young did not play last night — but he is expected to take the court tonight. He is only making 35.7% of his shots so far this season — and he is making just 29.4% of his 3-pointers. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with  Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE:  Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Golden State (5-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-104 loss at Cleveland as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 120-106 loss to Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors only made 36.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. With Draymond Green questionable to play with an ankle injury, they may be without their best defensive player. But this team should shoot much better tonight — they are making 48.0% of their shots and 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc in their five games on the road which is translating into 120.6 Points-Per-Game. Golden State has played 14 of their last 19 games when playing on the road for the second time in two days. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing on the road for the third time in four days. Additionally, they have played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total in the first half of the season. The Warriors have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit got whistled for 23 fouls against the Suns on Saturday while only drawing 13 personal fouls — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after committing ten or more personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. And in their last 47 games when on a four-game losing streak, they have played 31 of these games Over the Total. After starting the season playing better defense than last year under first-year head coach Monty Williams, they have since taken a step back. In their last five games, Detroit is allowing 116.2 PPG on 48.0% shooting. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Pistons are dealing with some injuries with Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers that have kept them off the court this season — and now Joe Harris is out tonight, Alec Burks is doubtful, and Jadey Ivey is questionable with an illness. Detroit’s depth will be challenged tonight — and that will not help their defensive effort. But with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duran, the Pistons will score their share of points. They have scored 110.6 PPG in their last five games despite these injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-1) lost their first game of the season with a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (4-0) is unbeaten to start the season after their 114-105 win against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: If the financial incentives for this In-Season Tournament that begins tonight were not enough to motivate the defending champions, the Mavericks should have Denver’s full attention tonight after they played their worst game of the season on Wednesday after a Timberwolves team coming off an embarrassing loss themselves. The Nuggets only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. And while Minnesota made a modest 45.8% of their shots, that was still the highest shooting percentage that Denver has allowed all season. The Nuggets have been very focused early on this season — three of their four victories have been by eight or more points. They rank second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. The biggest concern for this team coming into this season was the play of their bench after losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson have played well as the core of their second unit. Denver should play great tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by double-digits. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after winning two of their last three games. Dallas allowed the Bulls to make 47.2% of their shots which was actually the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots including 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Defense was one of the biggest questions for this team after they ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kudos to this team for starting the season undefeated — and a slimmed-down Luka Doncic has been spectacular so far. Kyrie Irving has not yet played this season due to a left ankle sprain — and he is questionable to play tonight. I suspect Irving plays — but the Mavericks ranked 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring Irving at the trade deadline which is not a surprise since he is not known for his defensive prowess. The Doncic/Irving duo was not successful last year — Dallas was only 5-11 in their 16 games when they played together down the stretch as they dropped from the fourth seed in the Western Conference to the 11th seed. It will still be a work in progress for those two superstars to mesh together on the offensive end of the court. The Mavericks lost some important role players from last year as well with Christian Wood and Reggie Bullock leaving the team in free agency. Dallas is getting nice contributions from rookie center Derrick Lively, Jr. — but is he ready (and big enough) to slow down Nikola Jokic? Doncic and Irving are both liabilities on defense. Furthermore, Dallas has had an easy opening schedule with games against San Antonio, Brooklyn, the mess that is Memphis, and the Bulls. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning four or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are making 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc — but Denver has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams making 36% or more of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-114 upset loss at home to the Spurs as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. San Antonio (2-2) has won two of their last three games after that upset win on Halloween.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Suns had a 63-45 halftime lead against the Spurs before taking a 73-53 lead with less than nine minutes left to go in the third quarter. Then head coach Frank Vogel overcompensated with a defensive lineup that stopped their scoring and opened up the door for San Antonio to conduct their massive comeback. Phoenix was undermanned with Bradley Beal yet to make his season debut due to injury and Devin Booker missing his third straight game with a toe injury. Booker is a game-time decision tonight — so if he plays, it is a happy bonus for us. Even if he does not play, the Suns still have Kevin Durant who is scoring 27.7 Points-Per-Game so far this season. Phoenix should tighten things up on defense after allowing San Antonio to make 46.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three points or less. Phoenix has played two straight games Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after playing an Over in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home after playing two straight Overs. San Antonio has to be overjoyed with the play of rookie Victor Wembanyama who has played well with flashes of brilliance. He held his own with Durant on Tuesday. But the Spurs remain a team that is very young and inexperienced — they are probably a year away from being a serious playoff contender. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This is their third game on the road since Sunday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games when playing for the third time in five days. And while the Spurs started slow in their previous game by going into halftime trailing the Los Angeles Clippers by a 56-37 score, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Wembanyama is expected to be a defensive force with his 7’4 frame and his 8’ wingspan — but the Suns’ 50.6% shooting percentage on Tuesday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season for the Spurs. The play of San Antonio’s defense is very concerning after they ranked last in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51% along with their opponent’s three-point shooting percentage of 39% and their opponent’s 57% shooting clip inside the arc were all the worst marks in the league. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after allowing three straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). THE SITUATION: Orlando (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers as a 3-point underdog yesterday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 123-83 win against San Antonio as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC PLUS THE POINTS: Orlando was very competitive with the Lakers last night despite playing their worst game of the young season. They only made 40% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their first three games. And they allowed Los Angeles to shoot 53.2% from the field which was the worst defensive effort so far this season. This is a dangerous young team that overcame a brutal 5-20 start last year to go 29-28 the rest of the way. In those final 57 games, the team bought into playing defense for head coach Jamahl Mosley. They ranked sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over that stretch of games — and their attention to detail on that end of the court has continued this season as Orlando leads the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 99.7. Scoring was an issue for this team last year as they ranked 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but so far this season they rank a respectable 14th in the league with a 110.3 mark. The Magic have two rising stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero won the Rookie of the Year Award last year after being picked first in the 2022 draft. Wagner was outstanding in helping Germany win the Basketball World Cup over the summer — the third-year pro may be in line to win the Most Improved Player Award this year. With these two versatile 6’10 players, Orlando is a handful. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing on the road for the third time in five days. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. Los Angeles will be undermanned tonight after trading Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and KJ Martin, Jr. to Philadelphia last night. The Clippers brought back James Harden and P.J. Tucker but they will not be available to play tonight after packing their bags. Head coach Ty Lue is already dealing with some injuries with Terrance Mann and Brandon Boston both out for tonight. Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac are questionable with injuries as well. The Clippers come off their best defensive effort of the season by holding the Spurs to only 37.5% shooting on Sunday. Los Angeles seized a 56-37 lead by halftime in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking a 15 or more point lead at halftime in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are outscoring their opponents by +16.6 Points-Per-Game so far this season — but Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 128-95 loss at home to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their 118-102 win against Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City played their worst game of the season yesterday — their 41.1% shooting percentage and their allowing the Nuggets to make 60.2% of their shots were both the worst marks of the young season. But the Thunder has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 30 or more points. Oklahoma City was a surprisingly good defensive team last season under head coach Mark Daigneault as he got a young roster to buy in as they ranked 12th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Finally having a healthy Chet Holmgren on the court after he missed all of last season is a big help as the seven-footer from Gonzaga offers the team the rim protector they need. With first-team All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have reliable scoring that makes yesterday’s game against the reigning NBA champions an aberration. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after failing to score more than 105 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. The Thunder are a legitimate contender to make the Western Conference playoffs after beating New Orleans in the Play-In Tournament before ultimately losing to Minnesota. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two of their last three games. Detroit is another team that should be improved after getting an injured star back with Cade Cunningham back on the court after only 12 games last year. We were on the Pistons in their lone loss this season at Miami. They then upset Charlotte on Friday before their upset victory at home against the Bulls on Saturday. They made 52.3% of their shots in that win against Chicago which was a season high. But this looks like a letdown spot for them tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win against a division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6  games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. The Pistons are missing Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers — and this team will be more reliable on the road when they have those veterans in the mix.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games at home when favored. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 124-104 upset loss at home against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (1-0) comes off a 97-94 win against Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago was sluggish with their shooting on Wednesday as they only made 41.9% of their shots. The Bulls can struggle with their shooting — but allowing the Thunder to make 54.9% of their shots was a surprise after they finished fifth in the NBA last season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games after a loss at home by ten or more points. The Bulls lost in the Play-In Tournament to Miami after finishing the regular season with a 40-42 record — but their net point differential projected them to have 44 victories which was more in line with their 46 wins for the 2021-22 season. The organization returned their top eight players in terms of minutes played. While they will not have the services of Lonzo Ball this season as he recovers from his chronic knee injuries, the team still has a very respectable trio in Zack LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic that forms the core of the team. Chicago has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games at home when favored by up to six points. Toronto only made 40% of their shots on Wednesday — but they benefited from the Timberwolves only making 34% of their shots. But the Raptors got out-rebounded by a 62-47 margin to Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. The Raptors entered a new era in the offseason after firing head coach Nick Nurse and then not resigning point guard Fred VanVleet — two key pieces in their recent NBA championship. Dennis Schroder was signed as a free agent from the Los Angeles Lakers to run the offense — but he is a downgrade from VanVleet. This is a team that ranked 26th in the league by assisting on only 57% of their made field goals — and VanVleet was their leading assist man. Toronto also ranked 28th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They were just 14-27 on the road last season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago beat the Raptors in the Play-In Tournament last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against Toronto. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-1) looks to rebound from their 119-107 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (1-0) tipped off their season with a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles caught on hot-shooting Nuggets team on the night they lowered their championship banner and received their rings. Denver shot 52.7% from the field while making 41% of their 3-pointers. Anthony Davis did not score a point in the second half. Now the Lakers return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with those two point spread losses being against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a point spread defeat. The Lakers' defense was much better after the trade deadline when they solved some roster problems — they ranked third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after the trade deadline while holding their opponents to just a 33.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking fourth in the NBA. They improved their roster in the offseason by adding Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes among others. Phoenix held the Warriors to just 35.6% shooting on Tuesday — and  Golden State only made 24% of their shots from behind the arc in that opening game. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win against a divisional rival. Despite the victory, there were some concerning elements to Phoenix’s effort under first-year head coach Frank Vogel. Despite trading away Chris Paul, the offense is still too dependent on jump shots inside the arc as 57% of their field goal attempts were from midrange. They also turned the ball over in 19% of their possessions which is likely to continue to be a problem given the lack of quality point guards on the roster. Devin Booker was the primary ball handler in that game — but now he joins Bradley Beal as being out for this game (because October is not too early for load management). The aging Eric Gordon and Jordan Goodwin will have the ball-handling duties tonight. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). THE SITUATION: Golden State (0-0) returns to action after losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals last May. Phoenix (0-0) also lost in the Western Conference Semifinals in a six-game series against Denver last May.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State moved on from Jordan Poole in the offseason in their trade with Washington that brought back Chris Paul. The Warriors seemed to have chemistry issues all season after trying to sweep Poole’s preseason fight with Draymond Green under the rug. Green is out tonight with an injury. Golden State is not nearly as tough on defense without Green. However, head coach Steve Kerr has some interesting options with Paul now in the mix — either Steph Curry or Paul will be leading the offense at nearly all times with that combination. While we need to take preseason numbers with a grain of salt, Paul scored 7.5 Points-Per-Game in 20.2 Minutes-Per-Game while adding 5.8 Assists-Per-Game and 4.0 Rebounds-Per-Game.  Golden State was a much better team at home where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Phoenix has significantly remade their roster with Paul and DeAndre Ayton gone and Bradley Beal coming into the mix to form a super team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. But this trio will not be debuting together tonight with Beal out with an injury. Booker is not 100% either as he is dealing with a toe injury — but he is expected to take the court. Only Durant, Booker, and Josh Okogie return from the rotation they used last season — and they have a new head coach in Frank Vogel. The Suns have some questions that need to be answered. Will they suffer without a traditional point guard on the roster? Is the supporting cast good enough? I suspect this team will experience some cohesion and chemistry issues early on. Even last year, Durant and Booker could become too dependent and predictable on isolation plays on offense. In their 23 games together when playing on the road after Phoenix acquired Durant from Brooklyn, they only had an 11-12 straight-up record — and they were 10-12-1 ATS in those 23 road games together. Vogel’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher in his previous stints with the Lakers and Indiana Pacers.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 28 of their 41 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range under head coach Steve Kerr — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have had an underrated defense for much of the season — and they are demonstrating this aspect of their game now after holding the Heat to just 42.4% shooting which has resulted in 98.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami has not shot better than 32% from behind the arc in three of the four games in the NBA Finals. Denver has made at least 48.2% of their shots in five straight games since only making 43.8% of their shots in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have also played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver returns home to Bell Arena where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by ten or more points at home.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things are dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they should be a tough out. I think the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat are off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark has improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena last Sunday, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. Don’t be surprised if Miami breaks out of the shooting slump they experienced in Miami. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They have perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver has been great all season — but one of the flaws of this group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it will not help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.    

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games after their 109-94 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin. Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After stealing home court advantage in Game Two, Miami only made 37.0% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. After making 59% of their shots in the paint in Game Two, the Heat only made 38.2% of their shots inside eight feet of the basket in Game Three. They also made only 11 shots from behind the arc for a 31% shooting percentage from 3-point range after making 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from distance in Game Two. Now for the first time in these playoffs, the Heat are trailing in a playoff series. They should shoot better tonight as they are nailing 38.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Head coach Erik Spoelstra needs more from the supporting cast after the starting five only made 5 of 19 shots (26.3%) from behind the arc. Fifty of the team’s 94 points came from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Miami has allowed the Nuggets to make 50.2% or more of their shots in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games.  They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they outrebounded their opponent by 20 or more rebounds. Consistency has been a problem for the Nuggets who tend to take their foot off the proverbial accelerator such as the third quarter in Game Two. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a win on the road by 10 or more points. In their last 18 games on the road when favored, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver's head coach Michaal Malone was livid with his team after Game Two. He described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. He showed the team the game tape afterward with 17 clips demonstrating miscues that he thinks resulted in a 40-point swing in the game. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. If there is a silver lining from a loss, it is that it usually results in an attentive audience from the players before the next game. Don’t be surprised if the Nuggets play their best game of the series tonight. As it is, Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with two days of rest. Now the Nuggets go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the home court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing with two days of rest. The Heat return home for the first time since May 27th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after being on the road for seven or more days.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Specials with the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami went into halftime trailing by 17 points — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Denver played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding Miami to just 40.6% shooting from the field. But the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning seven games in a row. And in their last 11 games played when playing for just the second time in seven days, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Miami began to find some rhythm in the fourth quarter when they went on an 11-0 run. Head coach Erik Spoelstra played more zone in the fourth quarter while using Haywood Highsmith as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic. Highsmith scored 18 points in Game One — and the Nuggets only scored 18 points in the 19 possessions that the Heat was deploying a zone defense. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: It may take the Heat a game to get situated in this series after a long and grueling seven-game series with the Celtics that just ended earlier this week. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. Miami held the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. The Heat have not allowed more than 104 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Denver rallied from a 73-58 halftime score to beat the Lakers in the fourth game of that series — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their previous game. The Nuggets should benefit from the extended break they earned from the four-game sweep as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get the first two games at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, Denver has covered the point spread 13 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the last game being a 112-108 upset win by Denver on the road as a 1-point underdog on February 13th. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired on Saturday. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. Perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams have a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams is muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams are only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am not willing to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size is too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it is fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And finally on this issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since this is the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that has not then played on the road. Ultimately, I am taking the Heat plus the points because I lack the confidence that the Celtics can close — and their 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back is the latest example of this phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team just think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? Now the Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I am comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Fundamentally, I consider the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed since they are largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat rank second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark is much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also makes 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that still is higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. If the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. So, I think there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I have more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — supporting my argument that the power ratings have them undervalued. And in their last 40 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the underdog, Miami has covered the point spread in 26 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for triple revenge against an opponent that has beaten them three straight times. Butler missed 16 of his 21 shots from the field on Saturday — but I suspect this might be the time he steps up again. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) has won the last two games of this series after their 110-97 win at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat suddenly find themselves in severe trouble in this series despite once enjoying a 3-0 lead. Miami are underdogs despite playing at home — and if they lose this game, they will have to attempt to win this series on the road in Boston. Injuries have plagued this team all postseason with Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro’s absences threatening the depth of this team. The final blow may just have well been when Gabe Vincent twisted his ankle during Game Four. While he returned to play in that game, the subsequent swelling on Wednesday kept him out of Game Six. Vincent’s availability is proving critical — not only is he not a liability on the defensive end of the court (as opposed to some of the players still available to head coach Erik Spoelstra), but he is one of the team’s best ball handlers. Miami committed 16 turnovers without him on Thursday representing more than 20% of their possessions. He is questionable to play tonight — and even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after losing two of their last three games. Boston has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a win on their home court. The Celtics go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Miami against the Heat — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots. To be fair to Miami, Boston did finally overachieve with their shooting relative to league expectations. Given the shot quality statistics, the Celtics would have typically scored 107 points — so they exceeded that baseline by nine points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 100 points. They have also played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Point guard Gabe Vincent has been ruled out for tonight’s game after he twisted his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Miami will miss his scoring as he has averaged 17.5 Points-Per-Game in this series. Look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to slow things down tonight and make it a Jimmy Butler game where perhaps they can steal yet another playoff game in the fourth quarter. If that Spoelstra plan fails, then the Heat will probably call off the proverbial dogs and conserve their energies for Game Six back at home — and that will help our Under play (in the end). Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout games. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. The Celtics have also played 8 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA Miami-Boston TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics played with professional pride on Tuesday after their embarrassing 26-point loss in Miami on Sunday. They made 51.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they nailed 18 of their 45 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was their best 3-point shooting mark in this series. But can Boston continue this effective shooting back at home? They were only making 28.3% of their 3-pointers in this series before Game Four. Frankly, this team simply seems too dependent on the 3-point shot — and teams that live and die by the 3 are usually inconsistent. And the fundamental problems with this team regarding their relationship with head coach Joe Mazzulla — the last-minute replacement for Ime Udoka who was suspended for his off-the-court shenanigans. Boston still looks broken despite the momentary display of life. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. Boston has also been unreliable when playing at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting upset in the first two games of this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 210s including six of those eight circumstances this season. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Fives in a series. Miami only made 8 of their 25 shots (25%) from behind the arc while settling for a 43.6% shooting percentage which was the worst offensive effort in this series. But the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Expect a more aggressive effort from Bam Adebayo who has only scored 11.5 Points-Per-Game on six shots per game after averaging 15 shots per game in the first two games in this series. On the road, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The books still have Boston as an 8-point home favorite which is the range they were in for Games One and Two. Frankly and in hindsight, that number seems flawed based on an overreliance on the Heat’s regular season numbers before they (somehow) flipped the switch and started making their 3s. Gabe Vincent’s rolled ankle late in Game Four worries me — he did come back and play on Tuesday but is listed as questionable for Game Five (UPDATE: Vincent is out tonight — but this is still a play. It’s a Jimmy Butler night). Ultimately, I think this Heat team has too much heart and team unity to get blown out again. Perhaps Boston extends this series to a sixth game, but this should be a close game if they do — and Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (545) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): In backing Boston on Sunday, I compared them to a drunken sailor who hates themselves enough to constantly dig themselves a deeper and deeper hole from which to then dig out. Turns out, this team may hate their head coach Joe Mazzulla even more than they hate themselves given their complete lack of effort in Game Four. The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on their rookie head coach Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has been favored in all three of their losses in this series — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after getting upset in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-18-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three games in a row. This team has still failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after a point spread win. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing the Heat in Miami. 8* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (545) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (544) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series. Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS: The obvious move for Los Angeles tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ efforts on both ends of the court. As it is, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 46 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning five games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Game Fours in a playoff series. And in their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are probably not going to rally to reach the NBA Finals after falling into an 0-3 deficit in this series — but I do expect the professional pride of LeBron James and Anthony Davis to lead them to victory tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 8* NBA Denver-LA Lakers ESPN Special with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin in the final 12 minutes to give that game away. Boston has dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series — and when they have put themselves in similar predicaments, they usually respond with increased focus and intensity on the defensive end of the court. After losing Game Five at home to Philadelphia to trail by a 3-2 margin in that series, they held the 76ers to 87.0 Points-Per-Game in Games Six and Seven of that series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home. Miami has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Heat have excelled on the defensive end of the court when playing at home in the postseason. They have held their five opponents to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 98.4 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Like a drunken sailor who hates himself, Boston seems determined to keep digging deeper and deeper holes for themselves to then dig out of — but I suspect they know that an 0-3 hole will be all but insurmountable. They had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin to give that game away. Miami has a big edge with head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are the mentally tougher team. But the Celtics do have more ballers who can win any game in this series if they are all playing at their typical levels of competency. On Friday, it was Marcus Smart who disappointed the Boston faithful with just 7 points on 2-of-5 shooting with just four rebounds and three assists. Before that game, Smart had averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game on 15.2 field goal attempts per game, 5.7 Rebounds-Per-Game, and 7.5 Assists-Per-Game when Boston was trailing in a postseason game over the last two years. Smart should play better tonight — and so too should Jaylen Brown who scored only 16 points after missing 16 of his 23 shots. Jayson Tatum had his A-Game with 34 points — but he needs more help. The Celtics have staved off elimination on the road in the playoffs last season and also this year — so they are up to the challenge. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after getting upset in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when both those upsets were at home. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss at home. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Boston has some clunkers at home in these playoffs — but they have won and covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Frankly, I was disgusted by Miami’s effort in their opening Play-In Tournament game when we were on them against Atlanta. Fortunately, we have avoided fading them for most of their seven upset wins in this postseason. Mindlessly zig-zagging in the NBA playoffs is a dangerous betting strategy — especially since Joe Public knows about it. But mindlessly fading the zig-saggers is not an approach either. Off two upset wins already in this series, it may be difficult for the Heat to maintain their highest intensity — that is simply human nature. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three games in a row. They have won all five of their games at home in the postseason — but they were 6-0 at home in the playoffs last year before losing three games in a row at home to these same Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Miami including those three playoff games last year. They have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Los Angeles Lakers (540) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (63-32) has won four straight games after their 108-103 victory at home as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games while falling behind by an 0-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 108-103 loss as a 5.5-point underdog on the road on Thursday. Denver (63-32) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. The Lakers should play their best game of this series tonight with their backs against the wall. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss including five straight games in this postseason. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well. But now Los Angeles returns home where they have won and covered the point spread in all six of their games this postseason. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Back on their home court in these playoffs, Los Angeles is scoring +3.8 more points per 100 possessions off turnovers — and they are allowing -1.7 fewer points per 100 points off turnovers. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver outrebounded Los Angeles by a 49-40 margin making it the fourth straight game where they outrebounded their opponent by at least eight boards. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by at least five boards. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning four games in a row. The Nuggets have yet to find a suitable answer to Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham’s fourth-quarter adjustment in Game One where he inserted Rui Hachimura in the game to defend Nikola Jokic. Not only is Hachimura a good defender but that move freed up Davis to devote his defensive energy to protecting the rim. Jokic has gone just 9 of 23 from the floor in the last five quarters of this series since Ham made that adjustment. The Nuggets pulled out Game Two because Jamal Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter of that game by scoring 23 points on 6 of 7 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc. Murray had missed 12 of his previous 17 shots in that game. But now Denver goes back on the road where they have lost three of their five games this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a same-season loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-31) looks to bounce back from a 123-116 upset loss at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (54-42) has won eight of their last ten games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has been ridiculed for claiming afterward that his team won three of the four quarters on Wednesday. It was a disastrous third quarter in which the Heat outscored the Celtics by a 46-25 margin that made the difference. But Mazzulla’s point was that his team “let go of the rope” and let up in their intensity and focus on the defensive end of the court. Boston was not as physical as they needed to be and let Miami run wild in transition. The Heat nailed six of their nine shots from behind the arc in the third quarter while pulling down four of their nine missed shots. The Heat was a sizzling 17 of 26 from the field in that decisive start to the second half. But there are good signs for Boston from that game — if they simply tighten things up on defense and play a full 48 minutes tonight. The Celtics posted a 58% effective field goal percentage with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120.8. They outscored Miami by a 62-40 point margin in the paint. But there is still room for improvement since Boston only made 34.5% of their 3-point attempts while only launching 29 shots from behind the arc. They should take more 3s tonight given their average of 42 shots from 3-point range per game this season — and they are making 39.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Mazzulla will probably not play Robert Williams III as much since he struggled in defending the Heat’s perimeter players — the Celtics had a 145 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court in Game One.  Miami made 54.1% of their shots which was the Celtics’ worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Boston should bounce back tonight as they tend to play better when their backs are against the wall. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games after a loss in the last two postseasons including after four of their five playoff losses this year. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 second games in a playoff series, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Miami enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last 11 games with their 54.1% shooting — and they made 16 of their 31 shots (52%) from behind the arc including 57% of their non-corner 3s. The Heat are due a visit from the Regression Gods after posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 65.1% despite an expected eFG of 50.8%. Miami’s eFG in this postseason is 54.4%. Miami has won the opening game in all three of their playoff series this year — but they followed that up with a 138-122 loss at Milwaukee and then a 111-105 loss at New York in the second games of both those series. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. And in their last 26 games after winning two games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread 18 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston laid an egg in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami last season — but they bounced back by blowing out the Heat by a 127-102 score despite being on the road. Home teams in Game Twos coming off a loss in Game One have won 16 straight times in the NBA playoffs — and the seven Game Two winners have an average margin of victory of +17.7 points with six of those winners all being by double-digits. 25* NBA Friday TNT Game of the Year is with the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-32) outlasted the Lakers in a high-scoring opening game with their 132-126 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (52-44) has now lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the high-scoring Game One which saw 258 combined points, the books have bumped up the total into the high-220s for Game Two after Tuesday’s game closed in the 223 range. The Nuggets did stun the Lakers by making 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 points in their last game. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Denver made 53.7% of their shots en route to 125 points in their closeout Game Six against Phoenix — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Denver played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Lakers to make 54.8% of their shots. The Nuggets stay at home for Game Two where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Los Angeles’ 54.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 18 contests. And by allowing Denver to nail 54.9% of their shots, the Lakers played their worst defensive game in their last 48 contests. Head coach Marvin Ham did make an adjustment in the second half by moving Anthony Davis off from defending Nikola Jokic with Rui Hamichura coming off the bench to guard the Joker. After giving up 72 points in the first half, they held the Nuggets to just 60 points in the second half including  a mere 24 points in the final quarter. They posted an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 103.0 in the second half with Hachimura on the court. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. The Lakers got outrebounded by a 47 to 30 margin in Game One — and they have played all 5 of their games Under the Total this season after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their previous game. And while the Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 16 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver came out with tons of adrenaline and pushed the pace that was at a blistering 102 possessions per 48-minute rate. Things slowed down in the second half with a pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes. Look for tonight’s game to resemble that second-half pace with the Nuggets slowing down a bit while adjusting to Davis protecting the rim rather than defending Jokic. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami will have the benefit of an extra two days of rest and preparation from head coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff. Don’t underestimate what Spoelstra has cooked up for this opening contest against a Celtics team that he knows very well. As it is, the Heat have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 56 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 trips to Boston to play the Celtics. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston stepped up their level of play after losing Game Five at home against the Sixers to fall one game away from elimination. But this Celtics team has struggled with being consistent and maintaining their focus — so this looks like a likely letdown spot after their emotional win by 24 points where Jayson Tatum exorcised from demons from disappointing play earlier in that series. Boston was favored in Game Six and Seven against Philly and covered the point spread in both games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. The Celtics’ stymied the 76ers' offense by holding them to 86 and 88 points in those final two games. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing no more than 100 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 95 points in two straight games. They made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games at home with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series.

FINAL TAKE: This is the third time these two teams have played each other in the postseason since 2020. Miami and Boston split their four games in the regular season with the Heat winning the final two games after a 98-95 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on January 24th. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games at home when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat comes off a low-scoring game where they only made 40.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Knicks to 38.0% shooting, they have played their best defensive effort in their last three games. Miami has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have paled 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Celtics did hold the 76ers to 36.1% and 37.3% field goal percentage in the final two games of that series — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 39% shooting in two straight games. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory.                                   

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Boston Over the Total. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-32) has won five of their last seven games after beating Phoenix in six games last round culminating in a 125-100 upset victory at Phoenix as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-43) won three of their last four contests to beat Golden State by a 122-101 score as a 3-point favorite in Game Six of that series on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has the advantage of being able to host these first two games where they have a 40-7 straight-up record — and they are 30-16-1 ATS in these 47 home games this season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has won all six of their home games this postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 home playoff games. The Nuggets should build off the momentum of their victory against the Suns as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after getting three or more days of rest, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Here comes LeBron James who has lost 14 of his previous 19 opening games of a playoff series on the road (although the Lakers did upset Golden State last round in the Warriors’ building by a 117-112 score as a 4.5-point underdog). Los Angeles enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last six games by holding Golden State to 37.9% shooting. And by making 52.0% of their shots in that Game Six, the Lakers had their best shooting effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. The Lakers have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has only won two of their six games on the road in this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 playoff road games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the home team winning all four games. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with a 95-86 victory on the road as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 playoff games in potential closeout situations. Boston has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing a game where not more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games in closeout situations — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when facing elimination. Furthermore, Boston is a decisive 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Focus has been a concern for this Boston team this season — but when the Celtics are bringing their A-Game, they tend to know how to beat Embiid and this Sixers team. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against Boston. 8* NBA Philadelphia-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-43) had their two-game winning streak in this series snapped in a 121-106 loss on the road as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (50-44) still faces elimination trailing in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. They still lead all teams this postseason in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point speed in 6 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Golden State nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. If Wiggins plays, his offensive efforts will probably be limited. As it is, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win. The Warriors have not been a good road team this season — they are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Lakers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against them at Crypto.com Arena.  

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 opportunities at same-season revenge. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (60-32) has won four of their last six games after their 118-102 victory at home against the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (51-41) returns home having lost three of their last five games and looking to stave off elimination trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The margin for error for the Suns in this series is thin. They live on midrange shooting from Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul — but CP3 remains out for this game and they have to make a significant amount of those 2-point shots to make up for Denver’s 3-point shooting. In their two games at home in this series, Booker enjoyed two historic efforts as he combined to make 34 of his 43 shots (79%) for 83 combined points. Landry Shamet stepped up with 17 points in Game Four. The Phoenix bench outscored the Nuggets’ bench by a 62-31 margin. Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for only 11 Points-Per-Game in those two games. Denver combined to make only 16 of their 50 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. But with all that, the Suns only won those two games by a combined 12 points. Can Booker be Superman again — especially with now an injured foot that will likely slow him down? Deandre Ayton is questionable with a rib injury — and if you are buying the narrative that the team will Phoenix is better off without him for Jock Landale given the plus/minus numbers in this series, I have some beachfront property here in Las Vegas that you might be interested in. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games at home after a game that finished Under the Total. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The most consistent dynamic of this series has been Nikola Jokic who has been unstoppable in this series for the Nuggets. Jokic is making 58% of his shots and 47% of his shots from behind the arc. Denver has outscored the Suns by +46 in this series when the Joker is on the court. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Phoenix. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Facing the prospects of elimination, they should play harder on defense tonight. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 18 of their last 27 Game Sixes in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. But they have not shot better than 46.2% in five of their last nine contests. The 76ers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the playoffs when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston only shot 32.8% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers which was a far cry from their 38.0% shooting from behind the arc in Games One through Four. The Celtics also allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Game Five was just a clunker for a Boston team that played in the NBA Finals last year and probably took too much for granted in a Game Five back at home. Now they have their backs against the wall in this potential elimination game. But let’s remember that the Celtics posted a dominant 123.7 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the first four games of this series — +11.5 points higher than Philly. They averaged 44.0 Points-Per-Game in the paint in the first four games of this series. And the Boston bench outscored the 76ers’ bench by a 124-84 point margin before Game Five when Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III combined for only 11 points. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 60 points — but they did not play well on the other end of the court. Look for those superstars to play with more energy on defense. As it is, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss as a favorite of six or more points against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has been effective on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they hold a dominant 37-17-1 ATS mark in their last 55 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. And by holding the Celtics to 39.8% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last seven contests. But consistency has been an issue for this team. James Harden has enjoyed two huge 40-point scoring efforts — but he only made 17.9% of his shots and 15.4% of his 3-pointers in Game Two and Three. Tyrese Maxey had 30 points on Tuesday — but he did not score more than 14 points in Games Two and Three while making only 34% of his shots. Joel Embiid has been steady as a rock through all this — but he is playing through that right knee sprain. The Sixers are a team that is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Philadelphia has a long legacy of playoff disappointments late in the series — so the anxiety will be high in their building tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-44) has lost four of their last six games after their 104-101 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (51-42) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State looks to stave off elimination tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after failing to score more than 105 points. And in their last 17 home games after dropping two of their last three games, Golden State has covered the point spread in 13 of those contests. Returning home should make a big difference for this team as the role players perform better in the friendly confines of the Chase Center. The Warriors are 41-19-1 ATS in their last 61 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles was in a similar situation last round against Memphis as they held a 3-1 series lead with a road game for Game Five. They took their foot off the accelerator midway through that game when they fell behind to conserve their energy for Game Six. With LeBron James getting up there in years and Anthony Davis dealing with some inconsistencies, don’t be surprised if the Lakers look ahead to playing Game Six back at home. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning their two previous games at home. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-101 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
New York (52-39) has lost the last two games and now looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a point spread victory. Miami has also played a decisive 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. New York has played 28 of their last 46 games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 straight Overs when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/ U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-39) has lost the last two games in this series after a 109-101 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. Julius Randle called out his team after Monday’s loss that the Heat seem to have more ambition in this series. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks play their best game of the series tonight in front of their rabid home fans at Madison Square Garden. New York seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have not scored more than 101 points in two straight games — and three of their last four contests. But they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 105 points in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four games. The Knicks have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Miami did close out their series with Milwaukee last round on the road with a 3-1 lead — but the urgency against the Bucks team was much higher than it is now with the Heat seemingly in command. Don’t be surprised if the Heat play their worst game in the postseason since their flat effort at home against Atlanta in the first play-in game. It is not as if Miami is torching the nets — they are only scoring 106.8 PPG in this series. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning two games in a row at home. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 105 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 8 games. Jimmy Butler is still nursing an injured ankle — and while he has been effective, he has not scored 30 or more points in this series since putting on his Superman cape against the Bucks. He may save his energies for Game Six back at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series after their 129-124 loss on the road as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (51-40) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Devin Booker scored 36 points on 14 of 18 shooting on Sunday. He is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc in this series. But the Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns have failed to cover the point spew main 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They now go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Denver head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. While the Nuggets rank 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with same-season revenge. 20* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-43) has lost three of their last five games after their 127-97 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (50-42) has won five of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Lakers to make 52.5% of their shots. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lakers had their best shooting effort in this series by making 52.5% of their shots — and they were even more impressive behind the arc by nailing 15 of their 31 shots (48%) from 3-point land. But Los Angeles only makes 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc so they are not likely to replicate that effort. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Lakers have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in 14 days.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles owned a 37-17 advantage in free throw attempts in Game Three. They have played 28 of their last 41 games at home Under the Total after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent took 20 or more shots from the charity stripe. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this should be a close game. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. New York did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread only once in their last four games. They go back on the road where they are 38-17-1 ATS — and they are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning record at home. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, while the Heat have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. And in their last 58 games when the favorite, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of those games.   

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.