04-25-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers OVER 201.5 |
|
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (527) and the Philadelphia 76ers (528) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-32) has won seven games in a row after their 104-101 loss in Madison Square Garden as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (48-37) returns home trailing 0-2 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks held the 76ers to just 42.9% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 23 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Knicks have also played 8 of their last 9 games this month Over the Total. For the 76ers, Joel Embiid has been productive despite his left knee injury. He is averaging 38 minutes per game in this series — and while he has only made 20 of 51 of his shots, he is still scoring 31.5 Points-Per-Game after dropping 34 points and adding 10 rebounds on Monday. Getting two days off between games will help tonight. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Additionally, the Sixers have played 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. 8* NBA New York-Philadelphia TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (527) and the Philadelphia 76ers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 |
Top |
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (48-37) returns home trailing 0-2 in this best-of-seven series after their 104-101 loss in Madison Square Garden as a 5-point underdog on Monday. New York (52-32) has won seven games in a row. REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: I have not endorsed anything in this series yet because of my uncertainty regarding the health of Joel Embiid. He is averaging 38 minutes per game in this series — and while he has only made 20 of 51 of his shots, he is still scoring 31.5 Points-Per-Game after dropping 34 points and adding 10 rebounds on Monday. Getting the extra day off really helps the Sixers and Embiid tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing for the second time in five days. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row on the road. The 76ers return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philly is defending Jalen Brunson well because they are bypassing drop coverage to stay in his face to take away his midrange. While he is scoring 23.0 PPG, he has only made 16 of his 55 shots from the field for a rough 29.1% field goal percentage. The Knicks held the Sixers to just 42.9% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But there are plenty of concerns for this team despite their 2-0 lead in the series. All five of their starters got outscored when they were on the court in Game One — the best +/- number for a starter was Brunson’s -3. Game Two had the controversial officiating late in the game. New York is only scoring 86.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in the half-court. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in a straight-up victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by three points or less against an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Both games in this series have finished Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 times. FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 51 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-24 |
Cavs v. Magic -2.5 |
|
83-121 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (526) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (525) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (47-37) has lost the first two games of this series as well as five of their last six contests after their 96-86 loss to the Cavaliers as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Cleveland (50-34) has won four of their last five games. REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Orlando has not been competitive in this series after losing both games by double-digits and not scoring more than 86 points. This young team should play better — and shoot better — back on their home court. The Magic have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games at home where they are making 48.8% of their shots. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a point spread loss. Additionally, Orlando has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last two games. If there is a silver lining for the Magic, it is that they have not allowed more than 97 points in this series — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Cleveland is only making 42% of their shots in this series — and they are hitting just 29% of their 3s. Now they go on the road where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from 117.0 to 112.0. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road as an underdog of up to six points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. They have covered the point spread in both games in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. FINAL TAKE: The Magic have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games when favored. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (526) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-24-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 212 |
|
92-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (519) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (50-35) has lost three of their last four games after their 94-92 win against the Pelicans in Game One of this best-of-seven series. Oklahoma City (58-25) has won six games in a row. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans only made 38.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 contests — but I do not necessarily think the Regression Gods are coming for a visit tonight. The Pelicans miss the injured Zion Williamson who scored 22.9 PPG on 57.0% shooting. Brandon Ingram does not look close to 100% from his knee injury that kept him out for weeks. He scored only 13 points on Sunday on 5 of 17 shooting. In his four games back from injury, he has scored more than 13 points only once — and he is making just 43.1% of his shots. The Pelicans got a big game out of Jonas Valanciunas in Game One who grabbed 20 rebounds. They pulled down 36% of their missed shots — and they should control the glass again tonight against this Thunder team that privileges fast break transition opportunities to protect their defensive glass. When New Orleans gets second chance opportunities, that will also allow them to slow the pace down — something head coach Willie Green wants to do without a healthy Williamson. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 38 road games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while they have outrebounded three straight opponents by five or more boards, they have then played 4 straight Unders after outrebounding three straight opponents. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. Oklahoma City has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six or more points. Additionally, the Thunder have played 8 off their last 11 home games Under the Total when they are favored by 6.5 to 12 points. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when playing with revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (519) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder -7.5 |
Top |
92-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (58-25) has won six games in a row after their 94-92 win against the Pelicans in Game One of this best-of-seven series. New Orleans (50-35) has lost three of their last four games. REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City looked nervy in their playoff series in the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They only made 43.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers. With the first playoff game and victory under their belts, they should get back into the rhythm that earned them the top seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City may still be underappreciated in some circles — but this is a team loaded with young talent that smartly engages in the math battle of modern basketball. They led the league by making 38.9% of their 3s in the regular season. They also focus on winning the turnover battle — they rank fifth in the NBA by turning the ball over 12.5% of the time while posting the top turnover rate on defense by forcing turnovers in 15.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They led the NBA by scoring 20.4 Points-Per-Game off turnovers. And led by rookie Chet Holmgren, they were tops in the league by holding their opponents to 61.6% shooting inside four feet. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 95 points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City will start benefiting from getting last week off while the Pelicans were surviving the Play-In Tournament. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They now have a 34-8 record when playing at home — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 42 games. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games after playing their last game at home. And in their last 17 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points, they have covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. New Orleans only made 38.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 contests — but I do not necessarily think the Regression Gods are coming for a visit tonight. The Pelicans miss the injured Zion Williamson who scored 22.9 PPG on 57.0% shooting. Brandon Ingram does not look close to 100% from his knee injury that kept him out for weeks. He scored only 13 points on Sunday on 5 of 17 shooting. In his four games back from injury, he has scored more than 13 points only once — and he is making just 43.1% of his shots. The Pelicans got a big game out of Jonas Valanciunas in Game One who grabbed 20 rebounds. They pulled down 36% of their missed shots — and while the Thunder are not a great rebounding team, I do expect head coach Mark Daigneault to have his team focus more on protecting their defensive glass. New Orleans has outrebounded their last three opponents by at least five boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrebounding three straight opponents by five or more rebounds. They have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 29 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-24 |
Mavs +1.5 v. Clippers |
|
96-93 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-33) has lost three games in a row after their 109-97 upset loss as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Los Angeles (52-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with the win. REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas only made 38.7% of their shots on Sunday — and they only made 30% of their shots from behind the arc. The Mavericks simply seemed to lack much urgency in that game — but they should play better tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games on the road. They allowed the Clippers to nail 18 of their 36 shots (50%) from behind the arc on Sunday — but they should tighten up their perimeter defense tonight. The Mavericks have become a very good defensive team in the second half of the season after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline. Gafford offers them the rim protection they were desperate for and Washington is a good on-the-ball defender. After ranking 26th in the NBA in opponent effective field goal percentage, Dallas improved to third in the league in that category since February 5th. They led the NBA in their final 15 games with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.1. Los Angeles made 46.0% of their shots in Game One despite not having Kawhi Leonard in that game — that was the best shooting effort in their last three games. And by holding the Mavericks to 38.7% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. They raced out to a 56-30 halftime lead after Dallas managed to score only eight points in the second quarter. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after going into halftime with a 20 or more point lead. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing for the second time in seven days. And in their last 15 games at home with the Total set in the 210s, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. Kawhi Leonard is available to play tonight — but he may not be at full strength after missing the last nine games. FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-24 |
Pacers +1.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
125-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (47-37) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of this best-of-seven series by a 109-94 score as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (50-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory. REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana was flat on Sunday — and Tyrese Halliburton looked tentative on the court. Veteran head coach Rick Carlisle who has overseen an NBA title in his coaching career should get his team refocused for Game Two tonight. They should also shoot the ball better after only making 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 63 games. The Pacers are third in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have led the league in that category since March 1st. They make 50.4% of their shots on the season — and they should improve their 3-point shooting tonight after only making 8 of their 38 shots from behind the arc. Indiana nails 37.0% of their 3s so they should improve on their 21% clip from behind the arc. The Pacers have been very consistent after disappointing efforts. Indiana has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 upset losses against Central Division rivals. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss as a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Pacers play at the second-fastest pace in the league by averaging 105.2 possessions per game. Getting last week off should help them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. A silver lining for Indiana on Sunday is that they pulled down 28% of their missed shots — if they can approach that number again while shooting better, they should pull off the upset. Milwaukee played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Pacers to 39.6% shooting. The Bucks will likely still be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight as he recovers from his calf injury. Damian Lillard stepped in Game One with 35 points on 11 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of his 11 shots from behind the arc. But it is fair to say that Lillard has been a disappointment in his first season with the Bucks. He is only scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game on 42.4% shooting and a 35.4% mark from 3-point land. Milwaukee was lethargic down the stretch with eight losses in their final 11 regular season games including an ugly 25-point loss at Orlando in the final day which cost them the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets -6.5 |
|
99-101 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (58-25) took the opening game of this best-of-seven series with their 114-103 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (49-36) had their three-game winning streak with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers have now lost nine straight games to Denver — which raises the urgency that they need to split the first two games on the road and avoid the requirement to beat the defending champions in four of the final potential five games in this series. But it will be difficult for Los Angeles to not think they let Game One slip away after owning a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter. The free throw disparity in that game was particularly striking in the Lakers' favor despite them being on the road. Granted, Los Angeles ranks second in the league by getting to the line 24.2 times per game — and they also rank second in free throw rate. But while the Lakers made 17 of their 19 shots from the charity stripe, the Nuggets only had six free throw attempts all game. Denver averages 15.5 made free throws per game on 19.9 attempts — so expect at least another dozen or so free throw attempts from them tonight. The Nuggets were whistled for 20 fouls on Saturday which was five more than what were called on Los Angeles. The Lakers had 29 free throw attempts in their Play-In Tournament game against New Orleans which was 14 more than what the Pelicans got. New Orleans was whistled for 23 fouls in that game almost doubled the 12 personal fouls called on Los Angeles. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting at least 10 more shots at the charity stripe than their opponent in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after drawing at least ten more personal fouls than their opponent. Denver has full confidence that they can flip the switch to defeat this Lakers’ team — but they may not want to temp fate again by falling behind by 12 points. The Nuggets are a rested team who are comfortable playing in the high altitude — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Denver has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six contests — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They ended the regular season with a 1-point win at Memphis — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when following up two straight double-digit victories.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with triple revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when attempting to end a losing streak of four or more games against their opponent. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 216 |
|
92-94 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (585) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (50-34) has won five of their last seven games after their 105-98 victory against Sacramento as a 1-point favorite in their second Play-In Tournament game on Friday. Oklahoma City (57-25) has won five games in a row after their 135-86 victory against Dallas as a 19.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans stepped up without the injured Zion Williamson to make 51.8% of their shots against the Kings which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans are thin with their scoring without Williamson — they score -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. The Pelicans have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while they have won five of their last seven games, they have then played 26 of their last 43 games Under the Total after winning four of five of their last six contests. Oklahoma City made 55.7% of their shots last Sunday against the Mavericks which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. The Thunder have covered the point spread in four straight games even as a double-digit point spread laying 14 or more points in those last three games. OKC has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning and covered the point spread as a double-digit favorite in two or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points, the Thunder have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans want to avenge a 119-112 loss at home to the Thunder as a 1-point underdog the last time these two teams played — and they have played 39 of their last 61 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 8* NBA New Orleans-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (585) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder -8 |
Top |
92-94 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (57-25) has won five games in a row after their 135-86 victory against Dallas as a 19.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (50-34) has won five of their last seven games after their 105-98 victory against Sacramento as a 1-point favorite in their second Play-In Tournament game on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City comes into this game rested and ready after getting the week off after earning the number one seed in the Western Conference with their victory against the Mavericks. They made 55.7% of their shots against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after making at least 55% or more of their shots in their last game. The Thunder have scored at least 125 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after scoring 125 or more points in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 120 or more points in their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has covered the points spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 6 games after victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning their previous game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home on a three-game or better winning streak. OKC has covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s. New Orleans stepped up without the injured Zion Williamson to make 51.8% of their shots against the Kings which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held that depleted Sacramento team missing Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter to just 40.9 shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. Brandon Ingram logged in 37:09 minutes which was the most he played since returning from injury — he had not played more than 24 minutes in his first two games back so fatigue will be an issue. The Pelicans are thin with their scoring without Williamson — they score -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have won five of their last seven contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after winning five or six of their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Pelicans after surviving on Friday night in the Crescent City before traveling to Oklahoma City for this series — all without their leading scorer. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-24 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 223 |
|
97-109 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (587) and the Los Angeles Clippers (588) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-32) had won five games in a row before punting on their final two contests culminating in a 135-86 loss at Oklahoma City as a 19.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (51-31) has lost three games in a row after a 116-105 loss to Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was just announced at little after 2 PM ET that Kawhi Leonard will be out for this game as he continues to deal with right knee inflammation. His absence impacts both ends of the court for the Clippers — but I suspect the bigger concern for head coach Ty Lue is when his team has the basketball. Paul George’s defensive assignment was always going to Luka Doncic — Leonard was likely to defend Tim Hardaway or the other Mavericks off guard to Kyrie Irving. Russell Westbrook will likely get more playing time this afternoon — and Los Angeles holds their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is on the court. Westbrook may end up Irving — and he can also switch off on Doncic. But Westbrook’s presence on the court disrupts the offensive flow and spacing with James Harden — this is the reason why he was moved to the second unit midseason. The Clippers score -3.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when Leonard is off the court — and they score -1.5 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when Westbrook is on the court. Lue will demand a better defensive effort after the Rockets shot 48.5% against them last week which was the worst defensive performance in their last eight games. Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Clippers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing for the fourth time or less in the last 14 days. Dallas did not show up on defense last week as they allowed the Thunder to make 55.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. The Mavericks have become a very good defensive team in the second half of the season after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline. Gafford offers them the rim protection they were desperate for and Washington is a good on-the-ball defender. After ranking 26th in the NBA in opponent effective field goal percentage, Dallas improved to third in the league in that category since February 5th. They led the NBA in their final 15 games with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.1. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in their five previous games — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Dallas has also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (587) and the Los Angeles Clippers (588). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets -6.5 |
|
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be the Denver Nuggets (576) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (575) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver enters the postseason healthy and with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home after winning three of their last four games. The week off should help the defending champions as well in this opening game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing with three or more days of rest between games. Los Angeles has pulled off two straight upset victories against the Pelicans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game on the road. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets own the Lakers with eight straight victories against them after completing a three-game regular season sweep with a 124-114 victory in Los Angeles as a 1-point road favorite back on March 2nd. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss at home. 8* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (576) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 |
Top |
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers may be rusty with the three full days off since their game against the Pelicans — and they only made 41.7% of their shots in that game. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have fresh legs which will help them on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their two previous games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Denver comes into the postseason to defend their NBA title on a hot streak regarding their shooting. The Nuggets have shot at least 50.5% from the field in their last three games — and they have played five straight games where they nailed at least 48.9% of their shots. But Denver has then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in five straight contests. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. This will be the fifth game this season that Denver will be playing with three or more days of rest after their last contest — and they have played 3 of those first 4 games Under the Total. After playing their last two games on the road, the Nuggets return home — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has won the last eight meetings between these two teams after the Nuggets’ 124-114 victory as a 1-point favorite in Los Angeles on March 2nd. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-24 |
Suns v. Wolves -1.5 |
|
95-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (578) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (577) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (50-26) closed out the regular season losing two of their last three games after their 125-106 upset loss as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Phoenix (49-33) has won three games in a row and six of their last eight games after their 125-106 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota will benefit from the week off — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with three more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. They host the first two games of this series — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix made 54.7% of their shots last week against the Timberwolves which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 45 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their two previous games on the road. And in their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those games.
FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 10 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NBA Phoenix-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (578) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans |
|
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (558) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (557) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Pelicans lost a close one against the Lakers on Tuesday despite only making 46.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The injury to Zion Williamson certainly played a role in determining the final score of that game. With Williamson out tonight with that left shoulder injury, look for the remaining Pelicans to step up their play in his absence tonight. As it is, New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. Look for the Pelicans to play better on defense tonight since Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Sacramento has covered the point spread in three straight games after their upset victory against the Warriors — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win on the road as a 1-point underdog on April 11th — and Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss at home. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (558) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. But head coach Mike Brown has his team playing much better on the defensive end of the court — and they are also playing at a slower pace to compensate for their now very thin bench. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests. In their last 10 games, Sacramento’s pace has dropped to just 96.55 adjusted possessions per game which is the third-slowest in the NBA during that span. But while Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they have risen all the way up to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. The Kings have held their last five opponents to 45.7% shooting which has resulted in 106.2 Points-Per-Game — and that is -2.2% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Kings have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total in April including seven of their nine games this month. New Orleans now has their own significant injury news to deal with after Zion Williamson injured his left calf late in the game on Tuesday which will keep him out for tonight’s contest. He led the way with 40 points in the loss to the Lakers — and the Pelicans will very much miss his scoring tonight. But Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Brandon Ingram is healthy again — but he does not appear to be close to 100% yet. He only played 25 minutes on Tuesday and was not on the court in crunch time in the fourth quarter. He scored only 11 points on 4 of 12 shooting — and he has averaged just 12 PPG in his two games back in action. As it is and even with Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense has slowed down in the half-court to close out the regular season. While they ranked 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half court during the regular season, they dropped to 18th by scoring only 97.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in their final ten regular season games. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record, they have played 15 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on April 11th. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-24 |
Hawks v. Bulls -3 |
|
116-131 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (550) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (549) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-43) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 120-119 loss in overtime at New York as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (36-46) limps into the postseason on a six-game losing streak after a 157-115 loss at Indiana as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays on the road against the loser of the Miami-Philadelphia game; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Credit goes to head coach Billy Donovan’s team for playing hard on Sunday in a game that did not mean anything to them since they had already locked home court in this nine-versus-ten seed Eastern Conference clash in the Play-In Tournament. The Bulls nailed 48.5% of their shots against the Knicks which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four or more games in a row. They did allow New York to make 50.5% of their shots after Washington made 52.3% of their shots in their previous game — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing their last two opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. Chicago has played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing four or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when playing for the second time in five days. Atlanta chose to not show up in their game against the Pacers on Sunday as they let Indiana make 65.0% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last opponent to nail 55.0% or more of their shots. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. They stay on the road for the third straight game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls won the three-game series with the Hawks — but they come off a 113-101 upset loss to them the last time they played which was in Chicago where they were favored by two points. Chicago won meetings between these two teams when Tray Young played for Atlanta. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss at home to their opponent. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bulls (550) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-24 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 226 |
|
94-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State took the day off regarding their play on the defensive end of the court against the Jazz as they allowed them to nail 51.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 17 games. Head coach Steve Kerr will make sure his team gets back to basics in this single-elimination game. The Warriors have been a much better defensive team once Draymond Green got back into the mix after getting suspended. After ranking 24th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their first 40 games, they improved to eighth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 42 contests. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they have been even better down the stretch by rising to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. The Warriors have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages. But the Kings have amped up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to 44.4% shooting which has resulted in 102.8 PPG — and those numbers are -3.6% and -12.2 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against fellow Pacific Division rivals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-24 |
Warriors -1.5 v. Kings |
Top |
94-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing their best basketball heading into the postseason — they have won ten of their last 12 games. In their last ten games, the Warriors rank seventh in the NBA with a Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +8.1 which is a big improvement over their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +2.4 for the entire season which ranks 13th. They rank ninth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rose to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. They are making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games. The improvement in defense has been even more pronounced. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they rise to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. They did allow the Jazz to make 51.7% of their shots on Sunday but that was the worst defensive game in their last 17 contests. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three contests. After struggling on the road last season with the negative vibes coming from Jordan Poole impacting the chemistry of the team, Kerr has emphasized better play away from home this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the second half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Sacramento held the collection of G-Leaguers wearing Trail Blazers’ uniforms to just 31.6% shooting on Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 95 in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors will be without Gary Payton II with his left calf strain — but he has missed their last three games as well. These two teams split their four regular season games but the Kings won the most recent two contests after a 134-133 victory on the road on January 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when motivated by double revenge. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-24 |
Bucks v. Magic -6 |
|
88-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (512) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (511). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-35) has lost three games in a row after their 125-113 loss at Philadelphia as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (49-32) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 125-107 loss at Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Both teams have things to still play for this afternoon. The Bucks need a win to secure the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Magic are currently the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference — but a loss could see them fall all the way to the ninth seed given the logjam in the playoff race and their being on the losing end of several tie-breakers. Wendall Carter is listed as questionable for Orlando — but Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for Milwaukee. The Magic have not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak with all three of those losses being by 12 or more points— but they have covered the points spread in 9 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing three games in a row by double-digits. Orlando returns home for this one where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by double-digits. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Milwaukee concludes their regular season on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have won the last two games against the Magic after their 117-99 upset win at home against them as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Orlando has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games at home when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (512) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-24 |
Suns v. Kings +4.5 |
Top |
108-107 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (45-35) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five after their 135-123 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1-point favorite last night. Phoenix (47-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 124-108 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento misses the injured Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter which leaves their depth pretty thin. Huerter helps with the spacing on the court since he is primarily a three-point shooter. Monk provided instant offense off the bench and may still win the Sixth Man of the Year award. But the Kings still have De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis -- and they did make 54.8% of their shots last night against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown will want a better effort on defense after they allowed New Orleans to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 31 games. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots including seven of their ten games under those circumstances this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Sacramento still has plenty to play for this weekend as the regular season ends on Sunday. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs — but they are fighting for positioning for the Play-In Tournament next week with them being tied with Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th through 10th spots. This is only the fifth time this season when the Kings are playing at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. Phoenix enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games by making 48.4% of their shots against the Clippers on Wednesday. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. And while that final score finished Over the 218.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Phoenix stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road when a pick ‘em or favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns score 116.2 Points-Per-Game — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 116 PPG. The Kings score 116.6 PPG — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Bailout Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
99-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-09-24 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
102-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-24 |
Wolves +4.5 v. Suns |
|
87-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (550). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-23) has won two games in a row and nine of their last 11 after their 133-85 victory against Toronto as a 16.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (45-31) has won two games in a row and six of their last eight contests after their 122-101 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota continues to play well despite being without the injured Karl Anthony-Towns for the last month. The Timberwolves raced out to a 58-42 lead at halftime against the Raptors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after owning a halftime lead of 15 or more points in their last game. And while that final score finished Over the 214-point Total, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Minnesota continues to lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to 42.2% shooting which has resulted in 97.8 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.4% and -8.2 PPG below their season average. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games on the road in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 210s. Phoenix made 50.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after winning two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves want to avenge a 133-115 loss at Phoenix on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-24 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 226 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-24 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222 |
|
100-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (527) and the Los Angeles Clippers (528). THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) has won two games in a row and six of their last eight contests after their 110-105 victory against San Antonio as a 16-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (47-28) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 109-95 loss at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It looks like Denver will be without Jamal Murray for the seventh straight game tonight as he nurses a right knee injury. The Nuggets are leaning on their defense playing without their starting point guard. While their scoring is down -1.9 Points-Per-Game in their last five games without him, they have held their last five opponents to just 44.7% shooting which has resulted in 104.8 PPG. Denver has held their last two opponents to 105 and 101 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They have also played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a point spread loss. On the road, the Nuggets are scoring 110.9 PPG which is -3.6 fewer PPG than their season average. Denver has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Los Angeles only made 40.8% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Unfortunately for the Clippers, that might not have been an outlier performance when considering they were without Kawhi Leonard who is not expected to play tonight either given his right knee issue. Los Angeles is scoring 113.6 PPG in games without Leonard this season which is -2.7 fewer PPG than their season average. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. And while that game finished Under the 222-point total for that contest, they have then played 27 of their last 41 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Los Angeles has only attempted 75 and 76 shots in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not taking more than 80 shots in two straight games. The Clippers have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have only covered the point spread once in their last seven contests. Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 6th with the Clippers winning by a 111-102 score. The Total was set at 227.5 for that game making it the 7th time in their last 10 games that these two teams played a game against each other that finished Under the Total. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (527) and the Los Angeles Clippers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-24 |
Cavs +6 v. Suns |
|
101-122 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (517) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (518). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (46-30) has won two of their last three games after their 129-113 victory at Utah as a 9.5-point favorite last night. Phoenix (44-31) has won two of their last three games after a 124-111 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland will be without two of their best wing defenders tonight after Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro were both declared out for tonight’s game — but the good news is that Donovan Mitchell is available to play after missing last night’s game due to injury management. Mitchell missed most of March but he did play in the Cavaliers' previous two games at Philadelphia and Denver. Cleveland enjoys a +7.1 Adjusted Net Efficiency margin with Mitchell on the court. From December to February before his broken nose injury, he was scoring 28.1 Points-Per-Game from a 61.5% true shooting percentage — and he was adding 6.5 Rebounds-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. The Cavaliers pretty much have the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race locked up — but Mitchell asserted that the team needs to raise their confidence against good teams after getting clobbered by the Nuggets by 29 points. Cleveland raced out to a 67-47 halftime lead against the Jazz last night — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They continue their five-game road trip that began on Sunday in Denver — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when playing for the third time in five days. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while the Suns score 116.8 PPG, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams who average 116 or more PPG. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a double-digit victory. We were on the Under in that game but Devin Booker went off for 52 points with that final score cruising Over the 222-point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after playing an Over in their last game. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days. Despite playing against the fifth-easiest schedule in the league up until this point, Phoenix ranks only 15th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Since the All-Star break, they rank 27th in the 3-point attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio and 25th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And while they do rank seventh in the league in offensive rebounding rate, they now face a Cavaliers team led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen that ranks eighth in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams winning 60-70% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their 36 home games this season including five of their last seven contests at home.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 117-111 loss at home to the Suns on March 11th in a game they played without Mobley and Max Strus. The Cavs were able to launch 50% of their shots from behind the arc but only made 33.3% of them despite their 36.7% shooting mark from 3-point range this season. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 opportunities to exact revenge against their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Cleveland Cavaliers (517) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-01-24 |
Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 |
|
124-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (43-31) has lost two of their last three games after their 128-103 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 1-point favorite on Friday. New Orleans (45-29) has lost two of their last three games after their 104-92 loss to Boston as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns allowed the Thunder to make 56.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 37 games. Head coach Frank Vogel will be on his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. As it is, Phoenix has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or as an underdog of up to six points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Suns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has also played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. New Orleans only made 39.5% of their shots against the Celtics as they continue to struggle without Brandon Ingram who is out for the rest of the regular season with a left knee contusion. In the five games without him last month, the Pelicans only made 45.1% of their shots resulting in 107.2 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.6% and -8.0 PPG below their season averages. But New Orleans has tightened things up on defense as they have held their last five opponents to 44.8% shooting and 102.4 PPG which is -1.2% and -7.9 PPG below their season averages. The Pelicans have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. New Orleans ranks fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the league by holding their opponents to just 34.6% shooting from behind the arc. Phoenix is a midrange jump-shooting team — and the Pelicans rank second in the NBA in defense against jump shots. At home, the Pelicans have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or as a favorite of up to six points. They have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 123-109 upset loss on the road against the Suns as a 2-point road favorite back on January 9th — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Heat v. 76ers UNDER 209 |
|
91-98 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-30) has won two games in a row after their 104-101 victory at Detroit as a 5-point favorite yesterday. Philadelphia (37-30) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 109-98 victory against Charlotte as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after when playing without a day of rest — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Miami has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Jimmy Butler is questionable with a foot injury for the Heat — and this Philly team already without Joel Embiid may also be without Tobias Harris who is questionable with an ankle. Miami has won the last three meetings between these two teams after their 109-104 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on February 14th. 8* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-24 |
Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 |
|
122-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 113-106 loss at Milwaukee as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Houston (27-34) has won two games in a row after their 114-101 victory at home against San Antonio as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Bucks to make 47.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook who injured his hand and may miss the rest of the regular season. This team will need his offensive spark coming off the bench. As it is, Los Angeles are making 47.9% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 110.8 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -6.4 PPG and a -1.2% drops from their season average. The Clippers stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Houston made 46.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting mark in their last 11 contests. But the Rockets have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston is still only making 40.8% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 108.4 PPG — and those numbers represent a -4.4 PPG and a -4.7% drop from their season averages. They stay at home where they are limiting their guests to just 44.9% shooting including a 32.8% mark from behind the arc resulting in 109.5 PPG. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets want to avenge a 106-100 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers on November 17th last fall — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-24 |
Pelicans v. Pacers -6.5 |
|
114-123 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). THE SITUATION: Indiana (33-27) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 130-122 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (35-24) had their two-game losing streak snapped in their 115-92 victory in New York against the Knicks as a 6-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana comes off one of their worst games of the season. They only made 46.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. And they allowed the Raptors to make 55.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games for allowing 130 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss at home. Indiana has still covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning two of their last three games. This is their fourth game since the return from the All-Star Break — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. All three of those previous games were at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their previous three games at home. They host an undermanned Pelicans team that will be without C.J. McCollum who is nursing an ankle injury. It looks like Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram will take the court tonight after being listed as questionable with their nagging injuries — but depth will still be an issue with Dyson Daniels out with a knee and Jose Alvarado suspended. New Orleans held the Knicks to just 37.3% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 57 contests going all the way back to the second game of the season. But the Pelicans have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win. New Orleans has won five of their last seven games — but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games against teams with a winning record — and the Pacers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA New Orleans-Indiana ESPN Special with the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-24 |
Nets v. Magic -6.5 |
|
81-108 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). THE SITUATION: Orlando (32-26) had won three games in a row before their 109-92 loss at Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (22-35) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-86 win at Memphis as a 2-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Paolo Banchero has been declared out for tonight’s game with an illness — and that almost was enough for me to dismiss what was initially an intriguing situational spot for Orlando. But the odds have dropped a couple of points from a line that was already shaded down a bit with his status questionable for this game from the overnight line. Checking the deeper analytics, the Magic are actually getting outscored by -1.4 Points Per 100 Possessions when Banchero is on the court — and they are then outscoring their opponents by +6.5 Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. The difference comes from Banchero’s shaky play on defense — Orlando allows -8.6 fewer Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. As it is, the Magic have something to prove tonight after their loss on Sunday where they only made 41.7% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The absence of Banchero tonight allows for Franz Wagner to step up and continue his good month — he has made 51.5% of his shots in February resulting in 22.3 Points-Per-Game. The Magic return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Brooklyn nailed 48.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Even better, the Nets held the Grizzlies to just 38.7% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last 18 contests. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Magic want to avenge a 129-101 loss at Brooklyn back on December 2nd as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 opportunities for revenge in a game where they allowed 110 or more points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-24 |
Lakers v. Jazz -5 |
|
138-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). THE SITUATION: Utah (26-28) has lost two games in a row after their 129-107 loss to Golden State as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (30-26) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests after their 125-111 victory against Detroit as a 10-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers will be undermanned tonight with them playing without a day of rest before the All-Star break. LeBron James is taking a load management night off to probably rest up for the All-Star Game with the official designation being that he is dealing with an undisclosed injury. Los Angeles has already been without Cam Reddish, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Max Christie is also tonight with a right ankle sprain — but Anthony Davis is going to give it a go tonight after being listed as questionable with his right ankle all day. The Lakers did not make any moves at the trade deadline — but they did pick up Spencer Dinwiddie off waivers after he was dropped by Toronto soon after acquiring him at the trade deadline. But roster depth is an issue for this team — and they are much worse without James. They outscore their opponents by +2.0 points per 100 possessions when James is on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.2 points per 100 possessions without James. This biggest loss is on the offensive end of the court where they drop by -7.0 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers made 51.2% of their shots against the Pistons on the heels of nailing 55.7% of their shots in their previous game against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row at home — and they have to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 12-17 record while getting outscored by -3.7 Points-Per-Game. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah (26-28) has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Jazz were sellers at the trade deadline by dealing away role players Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio for draft capital — but they are still competing for the Play-In Tournament to get some postseason experience rather than embracing a soft tank to improve their draft position. Utah stays at home where they have a 17-8 record with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They are making 48.1% of their shots on their home court resulting in 123.2 PPG. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when continuing a home stand. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers want to avenge a 132-125 loss at Utah in the last meetings between these two teams on January 13th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 22 opportunities for same-season revenge this season. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-24 |
Kings +4.5 v. Suns |
|
125-130 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (30-22) has lost three of their last four games after their 127-113 win at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (31-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 113-112 upset loss at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. And while they had covered the point spread in their three previous games, the Suns have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Phoenix returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings want to avenge a 119-117 loss in Phoenix to the Suns back on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Sacramento-Phoenix TNT Special with the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-24 |
Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 231.5 |
|
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (29-21) has won three games in a row after their 138-100 win against Toronto as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Los Angeles (34-15) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests after their 149-144 win at Atlanta as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans made 51.0% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last contest. New Orleans has also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Pelicans go back on the road where they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Los Angeles made 58.4% of their shots on Monday against the Hawks in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Clippers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 145 or more points in their last game. They did allow Atlanta to shoot 53.7% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. That game concluded a long seven-game road trip — so this team may not have worked their hardest on the defensive end of the court against a Hawks team that does not play great defense. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 225 or more combined points were scored. They return home to play their eighth game since January 26th — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have played 39 of their last 65 games Under the Total at home at Crypto.com Arena — and they have played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles held the Pelicans to an effective field goal percentage of 39.9% in a 111-95 win on the road which was New Orleans' worst offensive performance of the season — and now Zion Williamson is questionable to play tonight with a foot injury. The Clippers make 49.7% of their shots and lead the NBA with a 39.9% clip from behind the arc. The Pelicans have played 24 of their last 33 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make 46% or more of their shots — and they have played 18 of their last 22 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who are shooting 36% or better from 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-24 |
Kings v. Cavs UNDER 234.5 |
|
110-136 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-19) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 123-115 upset victory at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cleveland (31-16) has won five games in a row as well as 13 of their last 14 contests with their 117-101 victory at San Antonio as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 50% of their shots on Saturday which came on the heels of shooting 56.7% from the field in their previous game at Indiana — but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning their last two games away from home. In their last five games, the Kings have not allowed more than 115 points in four of those contests. They have held their last five opponents to 46.3% shooting resulting in 112.3 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -2.1% and -5.3 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento is playing at a slower pace on the road where they average 103.1 possessions per game — down -2.1 possessions from their season average. The Kings also play better defense on the road where they are posting an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.7 as opposed to their 118.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Sacramento has played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 31 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Cleveland raced out to a 67-45 halftime lead against the Spurs on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points in their game. The Cavaliers have also played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing their two previous games Under the Total. Cleveland has not allowed more than 108 points in four of their last five games — and they have held those five opponents to 43.8% shooting resulting in 108.2 PPG. The defense certainly got a boost with the return of center Evan Mobley in their last three games. The Cavaliers have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.3 in their last 15 contests which is the best mark in the league during that span. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 132-120 upset loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog back on November 23rd. The Cavaliers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-24 |
Clippers -3.5 v. Heat |
|
103-95 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (32-15) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 136-125 victory at Detroit as a 12-point favorite on Friday. Miami (26-23) has won two games in a row after their 110-102 victory at Washington as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles defeated the Pistons despite allowing them to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Los Angeles offensive attack is nearly unstoppable as they made 59.6% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting 55% or better from the field. There were early bumps in the road — but head coach Tyronn Lue has figured out how to incorporate James Harden into the lineup. Usage is down for everyone from their previous levels — but this has helped Harden and Paul George be more efficient when they do have the basketball. Russell Westbrook has accepted the role of coming off the bench — and he is thriving on the second unit. And Kawhi Leonard is playing as well as he has at any time in his career. Since the first five games when Harden joined the team, the Clippers lead the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc with Leonard, George, Harden, and Norman Powell all making more than 40% of their 3s. They have a 29-8 record in their last 37 games — and they enjoyed a Net Efficiency Rating of +9.7 in January. Los Angeles has scored at least 125 or more points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after scoring 125 or more points in two or more games in a row including five of those six circumstances this season. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Los Angeles may get Ivica Zubac back on the court after being upgraded to questionable for this game — he has missed the last nine contests with a right calf injury. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games road as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 8 games against teams winning 51-60% of their games, Los Angeles has covered the point spread 7 times. Miami had endured a seven-game losing streak before winning their last two games — and that was the longest losing run in Eric Spoelstra’s tenure as their head coach. The Heat are struggling on both ends of the court. They hoped to add offense by trading for Terry Rozier from Charlotte but he has been a disappointment so far — and he has only scored 18 combined points in their two-game winning streak so it’s not as if he finally unlocked something for the team. The Heat did hold the Wizards to 41.1% shooting but that was their best defensive effort in their last nine games. Miami has played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against teams from the Western Conference opponents. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games as a dog. The Clippers are making 49.6% of their shots — and Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. To compound matters to Miami, they will be without Duncan Robinson who has missed the previous three games in the concussion protocol.
FINAL TAKE: Miami wants to avenge a 121-104 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 8-point underdog on January 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when attempting to avenge a loss when their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Miami ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-24 |
Nuggets v. Thunder -5.5 |
|
100-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (32-15) has lost two straight games after their 107-101 upset loss against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Denver (33-15) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 113-107 victory against Milwaukee as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 44.3% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Thunder have bounced back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after losing by six points or less. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games when favored. Denver will be without Nikola Jokic tonight as he is nursing a sore lower back. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games winning four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver wants to avenge a 119-93 loss at home to Thunder as a 1.5-point favorite back on December 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against divisional rivals. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-24 |
Cavs +6 v. Bucks |
|
112-100 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (26-16) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (31-13) has won six of their last seven games with that win at home against the Cavaliers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland made 50.5% of their shots which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They also allowed the Bucks to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last ten contests. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four contests. And while they complete their four-game road trip they started last Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when playing for the fourth time in seven days. Despite being without Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for about six weeks, Cleveland is playing very good basketball. The spacing has been better for Donovan Mitchell who has carried this team on the offensive of the court. On defense, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has forced an identity for this group based on effort and tenacity. They had held four straight opponents to less than 100 points before the Bucks scored 126 on Wednesday. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting resulting in 101.2 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Milwaukee was in a celebratory mood on Wednesday with new pre-game dance routines after their Wicked Witch of the West, first-year head coach Adrian Griffin got fired. While Doc Rivers has been hired to replace him, it will be interim head coach Joe Prunty in charge once again tonight. The Bucks had not covered the point spread in five straight games before Wednesday but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Play on the defensive end of the court has been the problem for this team — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 128.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games on their home court. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in January. And while the Cavaliers are outscoring their opponents by 3.9 PPG, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-24 |
Bulls -2 v. Raptors |
|
116-110 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-91 loss at Cleveland on Monday. Toronto (16-25) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-97 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raptors were undermanned last night because of injuries and their big trade with Indiana that sent away Pascal Siakam. While last night was a nice accomplishment, the challenge will be even tougher tonight playing with a limited bench with a day of rest. Toronto acquired Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, and Kira Lewis, Jr. yesterday but these players will not be available to play tonight. With Jakob Poetl and Otto Porter, Jr. out with injuries, the Raptors will have a thin bench supporting Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley. As it is, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a victory by 20 or more points. And while the Raptors have not allowed more than 105 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Toronto has covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Chicago only made 42.2% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their seven games this season after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season after a double-digit loss to a Central Division rival. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have gotten nice production from Zach LaVine after there were some concerns that he would disrupt the chemistry that had developed after he missed extended time with an injury. The Bulls have won four of their six games since he returned to action — and he has scored 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 42.4% of his 3-pointers in his last five games. He has also shown more intensity on the defensive end of the court. Despite their recent play on defense, the Raptors are still allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots this season — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 48% or higher. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 121-108 loss at Toronto as a 5.5-point underdog on November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities for revenge. 10* NBA Chicago-Toronto TNT Special with the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-24 |
Nuggets v. 76ers -1.5 |
Top |
121-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-13) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 124-115 victory against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite yesterday. Denver (28-13) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 117-109 victory against Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Joel Embiid returned to action yesterday after missing the previous three games — and he scored 41 points and added 10 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Embiid has scored at least 30 points and pulled down at least 10 boards for the 16th straight game. Now Embiid has an opportunity to showcase his talents on TNT tonight — and he usually is very motivated in situations like this. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a straight-up victory. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their home court. Philadelphia is a balanced team that ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and those numbers take into account Embiid missing 11 games due to injury this season. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. Denver nailed 64.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Sunday which was the best shooting effort for them all season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. They go back on the road where they are just 11-9 this season with an average winning margin of just +0.2 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Denver allows their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots — and they have been playing loose on the defensive end of the court as of late. The Nuggets’ last five opponents are making 49.2% of their shots resulting in 116.4 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season defensive scoring average. The 76ers are undermanned tonight with De’Andre Melton, Robert Covington, and some role players out tonight — and this is why the point spread is as low as it is. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut that scores 116.2 PPG on 49.8% shooting — but the 76ers usually perform well against these types of teams. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who score at least 116 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 games against teams who shoot 48% or better from the field. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Bulls -6 v. Spurs |
|
122-116 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). THE SITUATION: Chicago (18-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 140-131 loss to Golden State as a 3-point favorite last night. San Antonio (7-30) has won two games in a row after their 135-99 victory against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago allowed the Warriors to nail 52% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. That game was just the fifth time in three seasons when the Bulls gave up at least 135 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those previous 4 situations. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. Head coach Billy Donovan is not resting any players despite the back-to-back contest tonight — but the same cannot be said for Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. Victor Wembanyama is getting the night off which means they will be without their best player — and that leaves them undermanned with three other players in the rotation out with injuries including starter Zach Collins. San Antonio played their best defensive contest in their last seven contests by holding the Hornets to only 36.0% shooting. But the Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 18 games played without rest this season. Additionally, San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-24 |
Pelicans v. Nuggets -5 |
|
113-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). THE SITUATION: Denver (26-13) lost two of their last three games after their 124-111 upset loss at Utah as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. New Orleans (23-15) has won six of their last seven contests with their 141-105 victory at Golden State as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver may have played their worst game on Wednesday since winning the NBA championship last June. They only make 45.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Their defensive performance was even worse with the Jazz’s 55.4% shooting percentage being the worst opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss against a Northwest Division rival. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Nuggets return home where they have a 15-4 record with an average winning margin of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. They should enjoy a much game on the offensive end of the court as they make 51.0% of their shots including 38.7% of their launches from behind the arc resulting in 120.5 PPG. Nikola Jokic usually dominates the Pelicans Jonas Valanciunas as well. In his last ten meetings against Valanciunas, he is scoring 30.6 PPG while adding 14.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 10.7 Assists-Per-Game. Denver has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while the Pelicans have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. New Orleans plays for the third time in a row on the road as they continue a six-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last seven games after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans had four starters listed as questionable earlier today — but all four are expected to play tonight. Still, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds tonight after losing on the road in New Orleans to this team by a 115-110 score as a 4.5-point favorite on November 17th. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-24 |
Rockets v. Pistons OVER 225 |
|
112-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). THE SITUATION: Houston (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 124-119 loss at Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Detroit (3-35) has lost six games in a row after their 130-108 loss at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Bulls to just 44.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Despite that performance, Houston’s play on that end of the court has collapsed since Dillon Brooks injured his abdomen on December 26th. The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in three of their last four games. Houston has played 25 of their last 39 road games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Detroit allowed the Spurs to make 52.1% of their shots which was actually the lowest opponent field goal percentage posted against them in their last three games. The Pistons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing each of their last three opponents to make 47% or better from the field. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Detroit has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons look to avenge a 136-111 loss in Houston against the Rockets on January 1st — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-24 |
Raptors v. Kings -4.5 |
|
130-135 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 138-135 win against Orlando in overtime as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (14-20) has won two games in a row after their 116-111 upset victory at Memphis as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 20 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in two of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 135 or more points in their last contest. Head coach Mike Brown recently made a lineup change by inserting Chis Duarte into the starting lineup for Kevin Huerter. Duarte is a high-energy player who does not need the ball in his hands — and Huerter can get more scoring opportunities with the second unit facing the opponent’s reserves. De’Aaron Fox is making a strong claim to be worthy of the first-team All-NBA after improving his 3-point shooting from 32.4% to 39% this season. They stay at home where they make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 121.7 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto has received a short-term bump after trading OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley last Saturday. Quickley has thrived as the team’s point guard taking over for Gary Trent in the starting lineup. But Barrett continues to struggle with his shooting. They are both good defenders — but this could be a matchup where they miss Anunoby’s outstanding defense in the frontcourt against Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes. Head coach Darko Rajakovic is using more small lineups since the trade but there may be some growing pains on the horizon since Toronto was playing big for the last year and a half. The Raptors did play their best game on the defensive end of the court on Wednesday by holding the Grizzlies to just 42.6% shooting — but while that game finished just Under the 227.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Toronto has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contests -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. They stay on the road where they have just a 5-11 record while allowing their home hosts to make 49.1% of their shots resulting in 117.6 PPG. The Raptors have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Trading away Anunoby may be the first step to improving this Raptors roster that seemed to be spinning their wheels — but I think the matchup improves for the Kings since they can struggle with their rim protection on defense. Toronto allows their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 48% or higher. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-24 |
Nuggets v. Warriors +4.5 |
|
130-127 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). THE SITUATION: Golden State (16-17) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 121-115 victory against Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver (24-11) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 111-93 win against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has invested more playing time into the younger players on the roster given the erratic play of some of the veterans along with the suspension of Draymond Green — and players like Jonathan Kuminga are taking advantage of the opportunity. Golden State has won six of their last nine games. The Warriors will be rested for this game with it being just their fourth game since Christmas Day — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when not playing for more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 64 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home when an underdog of up to six points. And in their last 7 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Golden State has covered the point spread 6 times. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in five days. While they have a 14-3 record at home after completing a four-game home stand, they go back on the road where they are just 10-8 with an average winning margin of +0.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games at home. Golden State is outrebounding their opponents by +3.8 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have won five straight games against the Warriors after their 120-114 win at home as a 7-point favorite against them on Christmas Day. Golden State has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent including covering the point spread six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-24 |
Clippers -4 v. Suns |
|
131-122 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (20-12) has won three games in a row as well as 12 of their last 14 games after their 121-104 victory against Miami as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix (18-15) has won four games in a row after their 109-88 win against Portland as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is clicking now with James Harden in the mix — head coach Ty Lue has found the right pace of play to take advantage of the talent and Harden has developed chemistry and comfort with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard missed four games in a row recently but he is back in the mix after he scored 24 points against the Heat on Monday. The Clippers nailed 58.7% of their shots in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games at home. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Phoenix has Bradley Beal back on the court after he has dealt with back issues — not now they will be without Kevin Durant who is nursing a hamstring injury. The Suns held the Trail Blazers to 45.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will have revenge on their mind in their first opportunity to play the Suns after losing to them in the playoffs last April in five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-24 |
Pelicans v. Wolves -5.5 |
|
117-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (24-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 112-106 upset loss at New York as a 1-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (20-14) has won three games in a row after their 112-85 victory against Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota made only 47.3% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. Don’t blame Anthony Edwards who scored 35 points in the losing effort — he is on a heater by scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. Minnesota has not lost back-to-back games all season — and they have a net point differential of +10.7 Points-Per-Game following a loss this season. The T-Wolves lead the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.2 — and they rank fifth in net Adjusted Efficiency margin this year. They have played a winning team in eight of their last ten games — and they have a 7-3 record in those ten games. Minnesota has a 14-1 record at home with a net point differential of +11.0 PPGG. They rank third at home in net Adjusted Efficiency margin. They are making 49.0 of their shots at home resulting in 113.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 41.4% shooting resulting in just 102.0 PPG on their home court. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has played only one opponent with a winning record in their last ten games. The Pelicans held the Nets to just 35.7% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. And while they have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread as the favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning and covering the point spread in two more games in a row. Now after completing their five-game home stand, they go back on the road — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after winning three games in a row at home. They remain without Trey Murphy who is dealing with a knee injury — and his absence is significant since his outside shooting opens things up inside to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. New Orleans has a +15.6 net Adjusted Efficiency margin when Murphy is on the court — and that mark plummets to just +0.9 when he is off the court.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has a 2-1 record against New Orleans this season — but they are looking to avenge a 121-107 loss on the road to the Pelicans as a 4-point favorite on December 11th. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points including six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-24 |
Bulls v. 76ers -9.5 |
|
97-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 105-92 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (15-19) has won five of their last seven contests with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has been without Joel Embiid with an injury since Christmas Day — but he is expected to return to the court for this rematch tonight. As it is, the 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They only made 39.1% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for the worst shooting for them all season. Philly has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.7 Points-Per-Game by scoring 123.6 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite. Chicago made 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And by holding the Sixers to 39.1% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive game in their last 22 contests. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games on the road after a double-digit victory. Chicago has only scored 209 combined points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. And while they have played six straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Bulls have been playing better since Zach LaVine suffered his foot injury in late November which suggests his time with the team is short. But now they are dealing with a groin injury to Nikola Vucevic which leaves them thin in their frontcourt when attempting to defend Embiid.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 20* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-23 |
Suns v. Rockets +3.5 |
|
129-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). THE SITUATION: Houston (15-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 123-117 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 3-point favorite on December 26th. Phoenix (14-15) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests with their 128-114 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston played their worst game of the season last night by allowing the Pacers to nail 52.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage against them all year. The Rockets are ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they are holding their guests to just 42.3% shooting resulting in only 101.8 Points-Per-Game when they are playing at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games at home this season. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Suns have not covered the point spread in six straight contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss a home. Now the Suns go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 220s. The plan was for the big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to form a super team that would overcome the lack of depth — a by-product of their exorbitant contracts. Beal has played in only three games this season -- and now Durant is complaining again because, like Russell Wilson, it’s never, ever his fault.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 home games this season as an underdog. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-23 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 |
Top |
116-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-104 upset loss to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (9-19) has won three games in a row after their 125-119 win at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 46.3% of their shots against the Rockets on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They should shoot better tonight — the return of Trey Murphy from injury gives the team the outside shooting threat it craved to open up space inside for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to drive to the hole. The Pelicans are still making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 119.6 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after a loss at home in their previous contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis has won all three of their games since Ja Morant completed his 25-game suspension. They nailed 51.5% of their shots against the Hawks on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Grizzlies have not been reliable not reliable on the road relative to point spread expectations with Morant on the court. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games as an underdog -- and that includes them finishing last season on a 5-18 ATS run with Morant as an underdog before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and 23 of those games go back to last season with Morant given their 4-6 ATS mark as a road dog this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points after covering the point spread once in their four road games getting up to six points this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against Southwest Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at home to Memphis as an 8-point underdog on December 19th in Morant’s season debut — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-23 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 237.5 |
Top |
128-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-23 |
Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 |
|
122-117 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-14) has lost four games in a row after their 121-102 loss to New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (19-10) has won two straight games and five of their last six after a 113-104 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on the Nets in their cross-town rivalry game — but we got caught with some buzzard’s luck as they made only 36.6% of their shots in what was the worst offensive effort of the season. Brooklyn should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to an Atlantic Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss at home. The Nets should shoot closer to their 46.5% field goal percentage tonight. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver opened the season on fire with a 9-2 record — but they have since posted a pedestrian 10-8 record. They have won their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. The championship hangover seems to have impacted this group as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, the Nuggets have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have just an 8-8 record as opposed to their 11-2 record at home at the Bell Center. They are only outscoring their home hosts by +0.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -4.8 fewer Points-Per-Game on the road with their 47.6% shooting percentage -1.4% below their season average. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn will be looking to avenge a 124-101 loss in Denver as a 9.5-point favorite on December 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent including covering the point spread in five of those last six circumstances. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 |
|
120-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). THE SITUATION: Dallas (16-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 130-104 loss at Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (16-10) has won eight straight games after their 151-127 victory at Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas may have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Nuggets to make 56.3% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort for the new campaign. They also only made 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Los Angeles nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Clippers have made at least 50.6% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making 47% or more of their shots in five or more games in a row. Paul George has been ruled out tonight with an illness. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in four straight games while laying the points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in six of their last seven contests with James Harden finding his role with his new team after getting traded from Philadelphia — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Knicks v. Nets +1.5 |
Top |
121-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-13) has lost three straight games after their 125-108 upset loss at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (15-11) has won two of their last three contests after their 114-109 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks come off an emotional victory against the Lakers which was a personal revenge spot for Julius Randle facing his previous team. They held Los Angeles to just 42.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. The team endured challenging traveling circumstances after staying over in Los Angeles Monday night before traveling cross country yesterday. Now they finish their five-game road stand against their cross-town rivals. Consistency has not been a strength of this team that has up-and-down players like R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Randle. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games after a victory by six points or less. New York is playing without Mitchell Robinson who is out another two months with an ankle injury. Not only is Robinson the lynchpin of the Knicks' defense as their primary rim protector, but he also leads the NBA by pulling down 5.3 offensive rebounds per game. New York is thin at center with backup Jericho Sims now also out with an ankle injury. The Knicks are getting outscored by -0.7 net Points-Per-Game while allowing their home hosts to make 48.5% of their missed shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn allowed the Jazz to make 49.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Nets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.8 PPG. The Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court at the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has a +1.1 Adjusted Net Rating this season despite one of the more difficult opening schedules in the league — and they post a +7.7 Adjusted Net Rating when playing at home. After Cam Thomas missed time due to an injury, he has returned to action and leads the team by scoring 24 PPG. Head coach Jacque Vaughn encourages his team to bomb away from 3 — the Nets rank fifth in the NBA by getting 37.9% of their points from behind the arc and they are second in the league by nailing 38.7% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who are making 36% or more of their 3-pointers. And while New York allows their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Underdog of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-23 |
Lakers v. Spurs OVER 233.5 |
Top |
115-129 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-23 |
Pacers v. Bucks -6.5 |
|
126-140 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (16-7) has won three of their last four games after their 133-129 victory in overtime against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Indiana (13-9) has won four of their last five games after their 131-123 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The encouraging aspect of that victory was they played one of their better games on defense by holding the Bulls to just 41.2% shooting. Defense has been the biggest issue that first-year head coach Adrian Griffin needs to focus on moving forward. The Pacers nailed 56.5% of their shots against the Pistons which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing a Central Division rival in their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against a division rival.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be motivated to avenge their 128-119 upset loss against the Pacers as a 5-point favorite on December 7th in the In-Season Tournament Semifinals in Las Vegas which followed up their 126-124 upset loss in Indiana in their previous meeting this season on November 9th. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-23 |
Rockets v. Nuggets -8 |
|
114-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-8) has lost two games in a row after their 111-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Houston (9-9) snapped their three-game losing streak with the 110-101 upset win against Oklahoma City as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 41.8% of their shots against the Clippers which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Jamal Murray did return to the court in that game and scored 23 points in a losing effort. After missing ten games early in the season, Murray returned in the Nuggets’ game against the Rockets on November 29th before wrenching his ankle which kept him out another two contests. Denver has an 8-2 record when Murray plays this season. After completing their three-game road trip, the Nuggets return home where they have been dominant with a 9-0 record with a +11.0 net point differential. Denver’s role players are more effective when playing at home — and the Nuggets offensive attack is nearly unstoppable when playing at the Bell Center. They are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which is generating 121.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams from the Southwest Division. Houston held the Thunder to joust 42.5% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 road games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Houston may be the most improved team in the league this season - -and they have been particularly tough to beat at home where they have a 9-1 record. They rank second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 102.2 when playing on their home court. But things change dramatically when they go on the road where they are the only winless team left this season. The Rockets are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG — and they plummet to 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 118.8. Jalen Green has been much better at home as well where he is making 45.2% of his shots and 37.1% of his shots from behind the arc — but he is shooting just 38.4% when on the road with a 31.9% mark from 3-point range. Houston has a 9-8 record on the road with a -9.0 net point differential. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has revenge on their mind after losing in Denver against the Nuggets by a 134-124 score on November 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-23 |
Kings -1.5 v. Suns |
|
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 127-117 upset loss to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament on Monday. Phoenix (12-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 1.5-point underdog in the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Kings only made 44.7% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — and they allowed New Orleans to shoot 54.0% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a loss at home. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have allowed their last four opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after allowing four straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix has been without Bradley Beal who has only played three games this season — and they will also be without Kevin Durant and Grayson Allen tonight as they deal with nagging injuries. The Suns played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday as they held the Lakers to just 37.3% shooting — and their 49.3% shooting percentage was the best mark for them in their last five contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in five days. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-23 |
Pelicans +2.5 v. Lakers |
|
89-133 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in the Semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-10) has won three of their last four games after their 127-117 upset victory at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Monday in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. Los Angeles (13-9) has won three of their last four games after their 106-103 victory at home against Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday in their In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals contest. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans is better than their record given some injuries they sustained early on. C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado have missed time — but perhaps it was the absence of Trey Murphy that was the biggest blow to this team since his outshooting is critical to this team. With Murphy back on the court, opposing teams have to account for his outside shooting — and that opens up space for Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in the paint. Ingram scored 30 points against the Kings on Monday and Williamson has been playing as well as he did in his outstanding second season in the league before injuries began to hold him back. The Pelicans have a remarkable +31.7 Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin in their 101 possessions with Murphy healthy and on the court this season. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They have made 49.4% or more of their shots in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight contests. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after beating a Pacific Division in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a straight-up win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a victory by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games in a row — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. The Lakers have been feasting against the lesser teams in the league — they have only one victory against a top-ten team in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin -- and their strength of schedule rates as the 11th easiest in the league. There is a notion that the Lakers will have a “home court advantage” with this game being played in Las Vegas which is “just” a four-hour drive on I-15 from Los Angeles. While I do think the Lakers will enjoy the crowd edge tonight, I find home advantages coming mostly from familiarity with the court (or field) and the convenience of being at home — and while there are times when the cheering crowd can help a team (or impact the opponent), I doubt the Vegas crowd will achieve that tonight. Jeff Sherman at the SportsBook at Westgate and the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas only assigned a half point for the Lakers for a crowd edge tonight in response to the market.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-23 |
Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls |
|
100-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (6-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 123-117 loss to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (7-14) has won two games in a row after their 124-118 win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball for a few weeks given a right ankle injury he suffered last week. While Charlotte needs their point forward back to have any serious designs on making the Play-In Tournament, head coach Steve Clifford has some viable options to replace his production in the short term. Terry Rozier has missed some time with injuries — but he is back and can run the offense in Ball’s absence. Rozier scored 37 points in a win against Brooklyn last Thursday after the Ball injury. He has scored 23.3 Points-Per-Game in his last four games. The Ball injury also allows for rookie Brandon Miller to get more playing time — he has been solid so far this season and looks much better than Scoot Henderson who they bypassed with the second pick in the NBA draft. The Hornets also have Miles Bridges back after he completed his 30-game suspension for his domestic violence issues — he has scored 20.5 PPG and added 7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game since his return. Charlotte was competitive against a red-hot Timberwolves team without Ball on Saturday as they held a four-point lead with under five minutes to go before blowing that game. The key for this team in the short term is to simply play better on defense. They allowed Minnesota to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games and second-worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. The Hornets will benefit from the extra days off — look for them to push the pace against a Bulls team that has the sixth-oldest roster in the league (and they play at the slowest pace in the NBA). Charlotte has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Chicago has pulled off two straight upset victories with a win against Milwaukee with their triumph against the Pelicans on Saturday. The Bulls nailed 54.5% of tighter shots which was the best shooting effort of the season for them. They are playing with Zach LaVine who is dealing with a foot injury — and that may have opened up the offense with more of their field goals coming from passes rather than isolation. Their hot shooting overcame a 35-15 deficit in free throw attempts to New Orleans — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outshot at the free throw line by 20 or more shots at the charity stripe. Chicago has been wildly inconsistent this season with rumors abound that management is primed to break up the core of this team. Their victory against the Pelicans was the first time all season has won two games in a row. The Bulls' play on defense has been underwhelming as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG. Chicago has been unreliable as a favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored while failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are scoring only 107.7 PPG — and the Hornets have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 42 games against teams who do not score more than 108 PPG. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-23 |
Suns +1.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
103-106 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-23 |
Lakers v. Thunder -5 |
|
110-133 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 106-103 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Los Angeles (11-8) has won two of their last three games after their 133-107 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 41.1% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 contests and tied for the worst field goal percentage for the season. They also got outrebounded by a 51-36 margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have still covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games. Oklahoma City will likely be without Josh Giddey tonight given the police investigation that he was involved with a minor — but the Lakers will have several absences as well. Los Angeles is without Rui Hachimura, Jarred Valentine, and Gabe Vincent are out with injuries while Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish are questionable. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win on the road. And in their last 18 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and the Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-23 |
Suns v. Raptors +4.5 |
|
105-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost two games in a row after their 115-103 loss at Brooklyn as a 1-point underdog last night. Phoenix (11-6) has won seven games in a row after their 116-113 upset win at New York against the Knicks as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 38.6% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.8. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 38.0% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 18.9 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix’s upset win against the Knicks cashed the over for bettors who had tickets at 218.5 — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games on the road after playing a game that went Over the Total. The team is adjusting to their first-year head coach Frank Vogel — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when on a seven-game or more winning streak. Phoenix comes into this game at less than full strength with Bradley Beal still out for this team with a back injury. Kevin Durant is questionable with a foot injury that has kept him out the last two games — and Grayson Allen is questionable with an illness. The Suns have a big game on deck two days from now against Denver so they may be looking ahead as well.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors are shooting 46.4% from the field this season — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams making 46% or more of their shots from the field. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-23 |
Raptors +1.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-23 |
Heat v. Knicks -5 |
Top |
98-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.
FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-23 |
Kings -1.5 v. Pelicans |
|
112-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-5) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 129-93 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans (7-7) has won three of their last four games after that contest.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Sacramento might have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Pelicans to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Their 37.9% shooting was their worst field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they got outrebounded by a 55-36 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards. Sacramento has a 6-2 record with De’Aaron Fox healthy — he missed five games due to injury. They have an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.1 when he is on the court — and their Adjusted Net Efficiency plummets to -3.9 without him. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher including four of those five circumstances this season. New Orleans played their best game of the young season in their 36-point victory on Monday. Their 54.3% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort of the season — and the Kings’ 37.9% shooting clip was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Pelicans all year. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit upset win as a home underdog. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while New Orleans has made at least 51.1% of their shots in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five or more games in a row. The Pelicans remained undermanned with C.J. McCollum out with a collapsed lung and Trey Murphy out with a knee injury. Larry Nance, Jr. is questionable with a rib injury. The Kings may be without Keegan Murray who is questionable with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 road games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-23 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 |
|
116-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (11-3) was on a six-game winning streak before their 121-118 upset loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (10-4) has won five games in a row with their 142-129 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jayson Tatum has been listed as questionable all day dealing with a non-COVID illness — but the team has announced he is available to play tonight and he looked good in the video I saw of him taking 3-pointers in the shoot around early this evening. Boston only made 43.3% of their shots on Monday in what was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning four of their last five games. This Boson team leads the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin of +10.8. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season by nailing 58.5% of their shots on Monday. While the Bucks have made at least 51.8% of their shots in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four or more games in a row. The Bucks have scored at least 128 points in four straight contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 125 or more points in four straight contests. The problem for this team is on the other end of the court where they rank 22nd in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 116.2 — and they will be without Jae Crowder who is one of their better defensive players tonight due to an abdominal injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as the dog. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Cavs v. 76ers -7.5 |
|
122-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has won two games in a row after their 121-99 win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (7-6) is on a three-game winning streak after their 121-109 upset win against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 12 games — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games after winning two games in a row. And in their last 35 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest, they have covered the point spread in 24 of those games. The Sixers return home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games at home when favored. Cleveland nailed 54.9% of their shots on Sunday in their upset victory against the Nuggets. They have shot at least 51.2% from the field in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after making at least 50% of their shots from the field in three straight games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Cleveland’s defense has taken a step back this season. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, they have dropped to 12th in the league this season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.5. The Cavs are not at 100% given some injuries — most notably Donovan Mitchell is out with a hamstring injury and Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Cleveland-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Raptors +2 v. Magic |
|
107-126 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (6-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 142-113 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Orlando (8-5) has won three games in a row after their 128-116 upset victory at Indiana as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Magic have pulled off three straight upset victories after beating the Chicago Bulls in back-to-back games before their contest with the Pacers. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a road dog. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win. They come into this game undermanned with two starters out due to the injuries to Markelle Fultz and Wendall Carter, Jr. Those two absences will put even more pressure on their struggling offensive attack that ranks just 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.6. After completing a four-game road trip, Orlando returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory at home by 20 or more points. The Raptors match up well against the Magic with four forwards in their starting lineup — Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes who could all defend Orlando’s pair of 6’10 big men in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. First-year head coach Darko Rajakovic has his team playing even better defense than the group that ranked tied for tenth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. Toronto has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.3 this season after posting a 113.1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark last year. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams remain alive for this In-Season Tournament thing — so both teams should have motivation. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-23 |
Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 215.5 |
|
109-121 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-110 upset loss at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (6-6) has won two games in a row after their 108-100 win at home against Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Pelicans to nail 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have played four straight Unders, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders this season — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Denver is scoring only 107.8 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -6.3 PPG below their season average. They are holding their home hosts to just 106.2 PPG. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. After making 56.0% of their shots at Portland on Wednesday, the Cavaliers shot 51.2% from the field against the Pistons. The Cavs have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have played 4 of their 5 home games Under the Total this season. Their 106.4 PPG scoring average at home is -3.9 PPG below their season average — and they are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG at home which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. They have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are missing key scorers with Jamal Murray out with a hamstring injury for the Nuggets and Donovan Mitchell out with a hamstring injury for Cleveland. The Cavs’ Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-23 |
Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 |
|
100-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has won six games in a row after their 107-104 upset victory against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-7) has lost six games in a row after their 111-108 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Nuggets to 46.2% shooting which was the opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — and Denver’s 104 points were the most points they allowed in that five-game stretch. First-year head coach Ime Udoka has this young team playing great defense. They added Dillon Brooks via free agency who made the All-Defensive second team for Memphis last year. They also added Fred VanVleet in free agency who provides the team veteran leadership with an NBA championship. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting which has resulted in only 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Houston has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. They also have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by six points were less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. The Rockets are scoring 111.0 PPG this season — but their scoring drops by -7.0 PPG by averaging just 104.0 PPG when on the road. Los Angeles continues to struggle as they attempt to incorporate James Harden into their rotation. He is working off some rust after not playing in the preseason. They rank 29th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since acquiring him from Philadelphia. With Harden on the court, they are playing at a slower pace to accommodate his tendency to dribble the ball in isolation against a defender before deciding to launch a jumper or drive the lane — they rank 26th in pace with him. The Clippers are making just 44.7% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 105.0 PPG. But after Los Angeles allowed the Nuggets to make 53.4% of their shots on Tuesday, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season, they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 43.6% shooting and just 100.2 PPG. They have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-23 |
Knicks +1.5 v. Hawks |
|
116-114 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). THE SITUATION: New York (5-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-98 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (6-4) has won two of their last three games in their 126-120 victory at Detroit as a 4.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York probably played their worst game of the season on Monday. Their 41.8% shooting percentage was their lowest mark in their last four games, They also allowed the Celtics to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Knicks are still playing outstanding defense this season — they rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight — even without R.J. Barrett who will miss this game (too) as he deals with migraine headaches. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a division opponent. After a slow start to the season, Julius Randle is playing better by scoring 24.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game in his last four contests. Jalen Brunson is scoring 22.0 PPG this season while nailing 43% of his shots from behind the arc while adding 4.3 Assists-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games on the road. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots last night against the Pistons which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Trae Young did not play last night — but he is expected to take the court tonight. He is only making 35.7% of his shots so far this season — and he is making just 29.4% of his 3-pointers. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-23 |
Magic v. Nets UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
104-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-23 |
Hornets +3 v. Wizards |
Top |
124-117 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-23 |
Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 216 |
Top |
101-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-23 |
Warriors v. Pistons OVER 223.5 |
|
120-109 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Golden State (5-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-104 loss at Cleveland as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 120-106 loss to Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors only made 36.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. With Draymond Green questionable to play with an ankle injury, they may be without their best defensive player. But this team should shoot much better tonight — they are making 48.0% of their shots and 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc in their five games on the road which is translating into 120.6 Points-Per-Game. Golden State has played 14 of their last 19 games when playing on the road for the second time in two days. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing on the road for the third time in four days. Additionally, they have played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total in the first half of the season. The Warriors have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit got whistled for 23 fouls against the Suns on Saturday while only drawing 13 personal fouls — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after committing ten or more personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. And in their last 47 games when on a four-game losing streak, they have played 31 of these games Over the Total. After starting the season playing better defense than last year under first-year head coach Monty Williams, they have since taken a step back. In their last five games, Detroit is allowing 116.2 PPG on 48.0% shooting. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Pistons are dealing with some injuries with Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers that have kept them off the court this season — and now Joe Harris is out tonight, Alec Burks is doubtful, and Jadey Ivey is questionable with an illness. Detroit’s depth will be challenged tonight — and that will not help their defensive effort. But with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duran, the Pistons will score their share of points. They have scored 110.6 PPG in their last five games despite these injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-23 |
Mavs v. Nuggets -6 |
Top |
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-1) lost their first game of the season with a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (4-0) is unbeaten to start the season after their 114-105 win against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: If the financial incentives for this In-Season Tournament that begins tonight were not enough to motivate the defending champions, the Mavericks should have Denver’s full attention tonight after they played their worst game of the season on Wednesday after a Timberwolves team coming off an embarrassing loss themselves. The Nuggets only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. And while Minnesota made a modest 45.8% of their shots, that was still the highest shooting percentage that Denver has allowed all season. The Nuggets have been very focused early on this season — three of their four victories have been by eight or more points. They rank second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. The biggest concern for this team coming into this season was the play of their bench after losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson have played well as the core of their second unit. Denver should play great tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by double-digits. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after winning two of their last three games. Dallas allowed the Bulls to make 47.2% of their shots which was actually the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots including 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Defense was one of the biggest questions for this team after they ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kudos to this team for starting the season undefeated — and a slimmed-down Luka Doncic has been spectacular so far. Kyrie Irving has not yet played this season due to a left ankle sprain — and he is questionable to play tonight. I suspect Irving plays — but the Mavericks ranked 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring Irving at the trade deadline which is not a surprise since he is not known for his defensive prowess. The Doncic/Irving duo was not successful last year — Dallas was only 5-11 in their 16 games when they played together down the stretch as they dropped from the fourth seed in the Western Conference to the 11th seed. It will still be a work in progress for those two superstars to mesh together on the offensive end of the court. The Mavericks lost some important role players from last year as well with Christian Wood and Reggie Bullock leaving the team in free agency. Dallas is getting nice contributions from rookie center Derrick Lively, Jr. — but is he ready (and big enough) to slow down Nikola Jokic? Doncic and Irving are both liabilities on defense. Furthermore, Dallas has had an easy opening schedule with games against San Antonio, Brooklyn, the mess that is Memphis, and the Bulls. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning four or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are making 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc — but Denver has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams making 36% or more of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-23 |
Spurs v. Suns -8.5 |
|
132-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-114 upset loss at home to the Spurs as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. San Antonio (2-2) has won two of their last three games after that upset win on Halloween.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Suns had a 63-45 halftime lead against the Spurs before taking a 73-53 lead with less than nine minutes left to go in the third quarter. Then head coach Frank Vogel overcompensated with a defensive lineup that stopped their scoring and opened up the door for San Antonio to conduct their massive comeback. Phoenix was undermanned with Bradley Beal yet to make his season debut due to injury and Devin Booker missing his third straight game with a toe injury. Booker is a game-time decision tonight — so if he plays, it is a happy bonus for us. Even if he does not play, the Suns still have Kevin Durant who is scoring 27.7 Points-Per-Game so far this season. Phoenix should tighten things up on defense after allowing San Antonio to make 46.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three points or less. Phoenix has played two straight games Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after playing an Over in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home after playing two straight Overs. San Antonio has to be overjoyed with the play of rookie Victor Wembanyama who has played well with flashes of brilliance. He held his own with Durant on Tuesday. But the Spurs remain a team that is very young and inexperienced — they are probably a year away from being a serious playoff contender. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This is their third game on the road since Sunday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games when playing for the third time in five days. And while the Spurs started slow in their previous game by going into halftime trailing the Los Angeles Clippers by a 56-37 score, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Wembanyama is expected to be a defensive force with his 7’4 frame and his 8’ wingspan — but the Suns’ 50.6% shooting percentage on Tuesday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season for the Spurs. The play of San Antonio’s defense is very concerning after they ranked last in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51% along with their opponent’s three-point shooting percentage of 39% and their opponent’s 57% shooting clip inside the arc were all the worst marks in the league. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after allowing three straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-23 |
Magic +6.5 v. Clippers |
|
102-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). THE SITUATION: Orlando (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers as a 3-point underdog yesterday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 123-83 win against San Antonio as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC PLUS THE POINTS: Orlando was very competitive with the Lakers last night despite playing their worst game of the young season. They only made 40% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their first three games. And they allowed Los Angeles to shoot 53.2% from the field which was the worst defensive effort so far this season. This is a dangerous young team that overcame a brutal 5-20 start last year to go 29-28 the rest of the way. In those final 57 games, the team bought into playing defense for head coach Jamahl Mosley. They ranked sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over that stretch of games — and their attention to detail on that end of the court has continued this season as Orlando leads the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 99.7. Scoring was an issue for this team last year as they ranked 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but so far this season they rank a respectable 14th in the league with a 110.3 mark. The Magic have two rising stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero won the Rookie of the Year Award last year after being picked first in the 2022 draft. Wagner was outstanding in helping Germany win the Basketball World Cup over the summer — the third-year pro may be in line to win the Most Improved Player Award this year. With these two versatile 6’10 players, Orlando is a handful. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing on the road for the third time in five days. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. Los Angeles will be undermanned tonight after trading Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and KJ Martin, Jr. to Philadelphia last night. The Clippers brought back James Harden and P.J. Tucker but they will not be available to play tonight after packing their bags. Head coach Ty Lue is already dealing with some injuries with Terrance Mann and Brandon Boston both out for tonight. Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac are questionable with injuries as well. The Clippers come off their best defensive effort of the season by holding the Spurs to only 37.5% shooting on Sunday. Los Angeles seized a 56-37 lead by halftime in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking a 15 or more point lead at halftime in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are outscoring their opponents by +16.6 Points-Per-Game so far this season — but Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-23 |
Pistons v. Thunder -5.5 |
|
112-124 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 128-95 loss at home to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their 118-102 win against Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City played their worst game of the season yesterday — their 41.1% shooting percentage and their allowing the Nuggets to make 60.2% of their shots were both the worst marks of the young season. But the Thunder has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 30 or more points. Oklahoma City was a surprisingly good defensive team last season under head coach Mark Daigneault as he got a young roster to buy in as they ranked 12th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Finally having a healthy Chet Holmgren on the court after he missed all of last season is a big help as the seven-footer from Gonzaga offers the team the rim protector they need. With first-team All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have reliable scoring that makes yesterday’s game against the reigning NBA champions an aberration. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after failing to score more than 105 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. The Thunder are a legitimate contender to make the Western Conference playoffs after beating New Orleans in the Play-In Tournament before ultimately losing to Minnesota. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two of their last three games. Detroit is another team that should be improved after getting an injured star back with Cade Cunningham back on the court after only 12 games last year. We were on the Pistons in their lone loss this season at Miami. They then upset Charlotte on Friday before their upset victory at home against the Bulls on Saturday. They made 52.3% of their shots in that win against Chicago which was a season high. But this looks like a letdown spot for them tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win against a division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. The Pistons are missing Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers — and this team will be more reliable on the road when they have those veterans in the mix.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games at home when favored. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-23 |
Raptors v. Bulls -2 |
Top |
103-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 124-104 upset loss at home against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (1-0) comes off a 97-94 win against Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago was sluggish with their shooting on Wednesday as they only made 41.9% of their shots. The Bulls can struggle with their shooting — but allowing the Thunder to make 54.9% of their shots was a surprise after they finished fifth in the NBA last season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games after a loss at home by ten or more points. The Bulls lost in the Play-In Tournament to Miami after finishing the regular season with a 40-42 record — but their net point differential projected them to have 44 victories which was more in line with their 46 wins for the 2021-22 season. The organization returned their top eight players in terms of minutes played. While they will not have the services of Lonzo Ball this season as he recovers from his chronic knee injuries, the team still has a very respectable trio in Zack LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic that forms the core of the team. Chicago has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games at home when favored by up to six points. Toronto only made 40% of their shots on Wednesday — but they benefited from the Timberwolves only making 34% of their shots. But the Raptors got out-rebounded by a 62-47 margin to Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. The Raptors entered a new era in the offseason after firing head coach Nick Nurse and then not resigning point guard Fred VanVleet — two key pieces in their recent NBA championship. Dennis Schroder was signed as a free agent from the Los Angeles Lakers to run the offense — but he is a downgrade from VanVleet. This is a team that ranked 26th in the league by assisting on only 57% of their made field goals — and VanVleet was their leading assist man. Toronto also ranked 28th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They were just 14-27 on the road last season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago beat the Raptors in the Play-In Tournament last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against Toronto. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-23 |
Suns v. Lakers -6 |
|
95-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-1) looks to rebound from their 119-107 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (1-0) tipped off their season with a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles caught on hot-shooting Nuggets team on the night they lowered their championship banner and received their rings. Denver shot 52.7% from the field while making 41% of their 3-pointers. Anthony Davis did not score a point in the second half. Now the Lakers return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with those two point spread losses being against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a point spread defeat. The Lakers' defense was much better after the trade deadline when they solved some roster problems — they ranked third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after the trade deadline while holding their opponents to just a 33.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking fourth in the NBA. They improved their roster in the offseason by adding Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes among others. Phoenix held the Warriors to just 35.6% shooting on Tuesday — and Golden State only made 24% of their shots from behind the arc in that opening game. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win against a divisional rival. Despite the victory, there were some concerning elements to Phoenix’s effort under first-year head coach Frank Vogel. Despite trading away Chris Paul, the offense is still too dependent on jump shots inside the arc as 57% of their field goal attempts were from midrange. They also turned the ball over in 19% of their possessions which is likely to continue to be a problem given the lack of quality point guards on the roster. Devin Booker was the primary ball handler in that game — but now he joins Bradley Beal as being out for this game (because October is not too early for load management). The aging Eric Gordon and Jordan Goodwin will have the ball-handling duties tonight. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-23 |
Suns v. Warriors -2.5 |
|
108-104 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). THE SITUATION: Golden State (0-0) returns to action after losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals last May. Phoenix (0-0) also lost in the Western Conference Semifinals in a six-game series against Denver last May.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State moved on from Jordan Poole in the offseason in their trade with Washington that brought back Chris Paul. The Warriors seemed to have chemistry issues all season after trying to sweep Poole’s preseason fight with Draymond Green under the rug. Green is out tonight with an injury. Golden State is not nearly as tough on defense without Green. However, head coach Steve Kerr has some interesting options with Paul now in the mix — either Steph Curry or Paul will be leading the offense at nearly all times with that combination. While we need to take preseason numbers with a grain of salt, Paul scored 7.5 Points-Per-Game in 20.2 Minutes-Per-Game while adding 5.8 Assists-Per-Game and 4.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. Golden State was a much better team at home where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Phoenix has significantly remade their roster with Paul and DeAndre Ayton gone and Bradley Beal coming into the mix to form a super team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. But this trio will not be debuting together tonight with Beal out with an injury. Booker is not 100% either as he is dealing with a toe injury — but he is expected to take the court. Only Durant, Booker, and Josh Okogie return from the rotation they used last season — and they have a new head coach in Frank Vogel. The Suns have some questions that need to be answered. Will they suffer without a traditional point guard on the roster? Is the supporting cast good enough? I suspect this team will experience some cohesion and chemistry issues early on. Even last year, Durant and Booker could become too dependent and predictable on isolation plays on offense. In their 23 games together when playing on the road after Phoenix acquired Durant from Brooklyn, they only had an 11-12 straight-up record — and they were 10-12-1 ATS in those 23 road games together. Vogel’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher in his previous stints with the Lakers and Indiana Pacers.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 28 of their 41 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range under head coach Steve Kerr — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 |
|
89-94 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have had an underrated defense for much of the season — and they are demonstrating this aspect of their game now after holding the Heat to just 42.4% shooting which has resulted in 98.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami has not shot better than 32% from behind the arc in three of the four games in the NBA Finals. Denver has made at least 48.2% of their shots in five straight games since only making 43.8% of their shots in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have also played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver returns home to Bell Arena where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by ten or more points at home.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-23 |
Heat +9 v. Nuggets |
Top |
89-94 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things are dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they should be a tough out. I think the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat are off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark has improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena last Sunday, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. Don’t be surprised if Miami breaks out of the shooting slump they experienced in Miami. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They have perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver has been great all season — but one of the flaws of this group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it will not help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 |
|
108-95 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games after their 109-94 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin. Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After stealing home court advantage in Game Two, Miami only made 37.0% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. After making 59% of their shots in the paint in Game Two, the Heat only made 38.2% of their shots inside eight feet of the basket in Game Three. They also made only 11 shots from behind the arc for a 31% shooting percentage from 3-point range after making 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from distance in Game Two. Now for the first time in these playoffs, the Heat are trailing in a playoff series. They should shoot better tonight as they are nailing 38.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Head coach Erik Spoelstra needs more from the supporting cast after the starting five only made 5 of 19 shots (26.3%) from behind the arc. Fifty of the team’s 94 points came from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Miami has allowed the Nuggets to make 50.2% or more of their shots in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they outrebounded their opponent by 20 or more rebounds. Consistency has been a problem for the Nuggets who tend to take their foot off the proverbial accelerator such as the third quarter in Game Two. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a win on the road by 10 or more points. In their last 18 games on the road when favored, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets -2 v. Heat |
|
109-94 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver's head coach Michaal Malone was livid with his team after Game Two. He described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. He showed the team the game tape afterward with 17 clips demonstrating miscues that he thinks resulted in a 40-point swing in the game. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. If there is a silver lining from a loss, it is that it usually results in an attentive audience from the players before the next game. Don’t be surprised if the Nuggets play their best game of the series tonight. As it is, Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with two days of rest. Now the Nuggets go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the home court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing with two days of rest. The Heat return home for the first time since May 27th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after being on the road for seven or more days.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Specials with the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
109-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-23 |
Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets |
|
111-108 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 11 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami went into halftime trailing by 17 points — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Denver played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding Miami to just 40.6% shooting from the field. But the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning seven games in a row. And in their last 11 games played when playing for just the second time in seven days, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: Miami began to find some rhythm in the fourth quarter when they went on an 11-0 run. Head coach Erik Spoelstra played more zone in the fourth quarter while using Haywood Highsmith as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic. Highsmith scored 18 points in Game One — and the Nuggets only scored 18 points in the 19 possessions that the Heat was deploying a zone defense. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-04-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Win
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100 |
29 h 44 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets -8 |
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93-104 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: It may take the Heat a game to get situated in this series after a long and grueling seven-game series with the Celtics that just ended earlier this week. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. Miami held the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. The Heat have not allowed more than 104 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Denver rallied from a 73-58 halftime score to beat the Lakers in the fourth game of that series — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their previous game. The Nuggets should benefit from the extended break they earned from the four-game sweep as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get the first two games at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, Denver has covered the point spread 13 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the last game being a 112-108 upset win by Denver on the road as a 1-point underdog on February 13th. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 218.5 |
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93-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-23 |
Heat +8 v. Celtics |
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103-84 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired on Saturday. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. Perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams have a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams is muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams are only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am not willing to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size is too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it is fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And finally on this issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since this is the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that has not then played on the road. Ultimately, I am taking the Heat plus the points because I lack the confidence that the Celtics can close — and their 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back is the latest example of this phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team just think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? Now the Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I am comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Fundamentally, I consider the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed since they are largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat rank second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark is much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also makes 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that still is higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. If the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. So, I think there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I have more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — supporting my argument that the power ratings have them undervalued. And in their last 40 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the underdog, Miami has covered the point spread in 26 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for triple revenge against an opponent that has beaten them three straight times. Butler missed 16 of his 21 shots from the field on Saturday — but I suspect this might be the time he steps up again. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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