At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (543) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (544). THE SITUATION: Portland (26-28) has won three games in a row after their 135-118 win against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (33-22) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 138-116 win at home against Atlanta as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. That game against the 76ers was the second time back for Scoot Henderson since being out with an injury to begin the season. He is still rusty as he is shooting only 40% from the field. Portland will be without Sharron Sharpe, who is dealing with a calf injury — the Blazers will miss his 21.4 Points-Per-Game. The Trail Blazers hit the road for the next two days before the All-Star break — and since they are playing at Utah tomorrow night, I am not worried about any pre-break “flu” or anything like that. Portland has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota nailed 59.8% of their shots, which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games and tied for their best field goal percentage all season. The Trail Blazers have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The team acquired Ayo Dosunmu from Chicago at the trade deadline, which will help their defensive efforts. Naz Reid should play tonight after getting fined but not suspended for an altercation on the court against the Hawks on Monday. Anthony Edwards is questionable with an illness — even if he plays, he may not be 100%. Minnesota plays their fourth straight game at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more games in a row on their home court. The Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 

FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers are scoring 116.1 PPG while giving up 118.0 PPG this season. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 116 or more PPG. The Timberwolves make 48.3% of their shots while allowing their opponents to make 46.3% of their shots. Portland has played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against opponents who are making 46% or more of their shots — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (543) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (548) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (547). THE SITUATION: Portland (23-26) has lost four games in a row after their 127-97 loss at New York against the Knicks as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Cleveland (29-21) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 126-113 upset loss at Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland struggles to score when Deni Avdija is off the court or unavailable to play. He has been dealing with some back issues recently, which leaves him questionable to play tonight — but the latest update this afternoon is that he is expected to take the court tonight. Jrue Holiday is out tonight for personal reasons — but the Cavaliers are missing key players as well. The Trail Blazers have played four straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as an underdog. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting upset on the road when favored. Evan Mobley is out tonight with a calf injury. Darius Garland also remains out with a toe injury — he has not played since January 14th. The Cavaliers do have a 15-7 record when Donovan Mitchell is playing without Garland — but they are only outscoring those 22 opponents by +2.0 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the last 14 games on the road when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games against teams from the Western Conference. Additionally, the Cavs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. 

FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 122-10 score on the road as a 10-point underdog on December 3rd. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (548) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (501) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (502). THE SITUATION: Toronto (29-20) had won four games in a row before their 119-92 upset loss at home against New York as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Orlando (24-22) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 133-124 upset loss at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after suffering an upset loss to a fellow Atlantic Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Orlando began the week ranked in the bottom five in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. Franz Wagner is getting the night off after missing time this month with an ankle injury. The projected starting five of Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Wendell Carter, and Wagner have only been on the court together for a total of just 8% of the team’s possessions this season (as of the beginning of the week). The Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win on the road, including failing to cover the point spread in all four of those games played at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against a fellow Southeast Division rival. Additionally, Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when favored, including 11 of those 18 games played at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Raptors won the last meeting between these two teams by a 107-106 win at home as a 1.5-point underdog. The Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (501) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (31-16) has lost two of their last three games after their 104-95 upset loss at home against New Orleans as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Houston (28-16) has won two games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 108-99 victory against Memphis as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. In their last 15 games, San Antonio ranks 23rd in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.6 — down from their 116.5 mark for the season, which ranks 16th. They go back on the road where they have played 10 straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Their offense has taken a step back as well, as they rank just 25th in the NBA in their last 13 contests with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 110.4 — as opposed to their 118.5 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency for the season, ranking fourth in the league. Steven Adams has missed the last four games with an ankle injury that will keep him on the shelf for a while. The Rockets will miss his offensive rebounding — he pulled down 22.7% of his team’s missed shots when he was on the floor this season. In his place, Tari Eason and Dorrian Finney-Smith are healthy again and will get more playing time — and they are much better defensive players than Adams is. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-70% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 contests against each other Under the Total after the Rockets’ 111-106 victory in Houston as a 4.5-point favorite last Tuesday. The Spurs have played 5 of their last 8 opportunities for revenge Under the Total. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (560) plus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (559). THE SITUATION: Portland (23-22) has won four games in a row after their 127-110 victory as a 3.5-point favorite last night. Toronto (27-19) has won two games in a row after their 122-109 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has won nine of 11 games as well as 11 of their last 14 contests. Despite Deni Avdija being out the last five games to an injury, the Trail Blazers have won three of those five games. They have been hit hard by injuries all season — but with Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday recently returning from their ailments, they are as healthy as they were to begin the season when they started out of the gate with a 5-3 record. Portland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing without rest. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto is playing their third game since Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing for the third time in four days. This is the Raptors’ eighth game in the last 14 days as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when playing for the eighth or more time in the last two weeks. This Toronto squad is also not at full strength. R.J. Barrett is questionable with an ankle injury — and his absence takes away 19.6 Points-Per-Game. Additionally, center Jakob Poetl is out with a back injury. 

FINAL TAKE: Toronto won the last meeting between these two teams by a 121-108 score at home on December 2nd — and the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (560) plus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (543) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers. THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Lakers (26-16) have won two games in a row after their 115-107 win at Denver as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Los Angeles Clippers (19-24) have won six games in a row after their 138-110 loss at Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Los Angeles is still without Austin Reaves — but they have gotten back Rui Hachimura just over a week ago. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their 32 games this season with Hachimura healthy and on the court. And while this is their sixth game since January 12th, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for the sixth or more time in a ten-day stretch. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 38 of their 57 games with the Total set in the 220s since J.J. Reddick took over as their head coach — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 road games with the Total set in the 220s. The Clippers have played themselves back into contention for the Play-In Tournament — but now Kawhi Leonard is dealing with knee issues again, which leaves him questionable to play tonight. As it is, the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season at home after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games under head coach Tyronn Lue after surrendering 135 or more points in their last game. They return home, where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with their intercity rival — but they got upset in their last contest against them on December 20th in a 103-88 setback despite being a 1.5-point road favorite. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (543) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Sacramento Kings (514). THE SITUATION: Miami (22-21) has lost five of their last seven games after their 135-112 loss at Golden State as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Sacramento (12-31) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 117-110 loss at home against Portland as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings are playing at a slower pace recently which has helped their efficiency on defense. For the season, they rank 17th with 100.43 adjusted possessions per game. In their last five games, they are averaging 97.00 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA over that span. They rank 27th in the league for the season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 119.0. In their last five games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has improved to 112.0 which ranks eighth in the NBA over that span. In the last two weeks, they are only giving up 111.4 Points-Per-Game which is -9.1 PPG below their season average. And in the last month, they are scoring just 108.8 PPG. This is the Kings' sixth game in the last ten days — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for the sixth or more time in the last ten days. They finish their seven-game home stand tonight — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more games in a row at home. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Heat give up 118.3 PPG — and the Kings have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who give up 116 or more PPG, including six of those nine games at home. Miami is scoring only 111.4 PPG in the last two weeks, which is -7.9 PPG below their season average. They are also only giving up 112.6 PPG in the last two weeks. On the road, they are scoring -2.6 PPG below their season average. The Heat have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Heat want to avenge a 127-111 upset loss at home against the Kings as a 9-point underdog in their last meeting back on December 6th. Miami has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss, including four straight games in a row when playing on the road. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Sacramento Kings (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (529) and the Sacramento Kings (530). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-29) has lost four games in a row after their 119-105 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Sacramento (11-30) has won three games in a row after their 121-101 upset victory at home against New York as a 10.5-point underdog on Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wizards are really limited regarding scoring options after trading away C.J. McCollum last week in the Trae Young deal with Atlanta. McCollum was scoring 18.8 Points-Per-Game for Washington and nailing 39.8% of his shots from behind the arc. In the four games without him since that trade, they are only scoring 101.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions, by far the last in the league over that stretch. They have not scored more than 110 points in those four contests. As it is, the Wizards rank 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.4. Young remains out — and both Khris Middleton and Bilal Coulibaly are both out for tonight’s game with injuries. Washington has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Additionally, while the Kings are allowing their opponents to make 46.3% of their shots this season, the Wizards have played 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. In their last seven contests, they are scoring only 109.9 Points-Per-Game, which is -2.7 PPG below their season average. On the other hand, the 120.3 PPG they are giving up in their last seven contests is -3.0 PPG below their defensive season average. Sacramento is suddenly playing better defense in their last three contests after they held the Knicks to 39.0% and just a 19.5% clip from behind the arc. After giving up 137 points to Golden State, they have only given up 112, 98, and 91 points in their last three games — and none of those three opponents made more than 42.9% of their shots. They have also not allowed those three opponents make more than 23.3% of their 3-point shots. The Kings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. It may not be a coincidence that the improved play on defense coincided with Dennis Schroder serving the three-game suspension he was issued. He is eligible to return to the court tonight — but Malik Monk has played well in his absence and may seize some of his playing time since he is on the trading block. Domantas Sabonis also returns from injury after missing the last 27 games. Sacramento is not a good scoring team, with roster chemistry being an issue in finding a rhythm on offense. They rank second-to-last in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.1. The eight games they have played this season in which they did not even score 1.0 Points-Per-Possession is the most in the league. Before their current winning streak, they had not scored more than 106 points in six straight games — and they failed to score more than 98 points in three of those contests. The Kings have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 18 of their last 29 games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher, including 9 of those 13 games played at home. And while the Wizards surrender 123.3 PPG, Sacramento has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who given up 116 or more PPG, including five of those seven games played at home. In their last seven games, the Kings are scoring only 106.9 PPG which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. But they are also holding those seven opponents in the last two weeks to 113.1 PPG which is -7.6 PPG below their season average. The difference has been head coach Doug Christie slowing down his team's pace of play. For the season, they rank 17th in the NBA with 100.37 adjusted possessions per game -- but they dropped to 24th in their last seven games with 96.64 adjusted possessions per game. It has been more dramatic during their three-game winning streak as they have only averaged 93.83 adjusted possessions per game, which is the second-fewest in the NBA during that span.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 5 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record — and Washington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record, including six of those eight games played on the road. Either of these teams is very capable of putting up a stinker on offense where they failed to reach 100 points — and 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (529) and the Sacramento Kings (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (516) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (515). THE SITUATION: Portland (19-22) has lost two games in a row after their 119-97 loss at Golden State as a 10.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (19-22) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 141-116 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland only made 29.8% of their shots from behind the arc on Tuesday, which was their worst shooting effort from distance in their last 11 contests. They will be without Deni Avdija tonight, who is dealing with a lower back injury. But the Trail Blazers just got Jrue Holiday back from injury after he missed 27 games to an injury — and they may also see Jerami Grant return from his Achilles injury. Shaeden Sharpe is still around to lead this team tonight — and rookie Caleb Love has been a preseason surprise as an undrafted free agent. Portland had won six games in a row before this recent two-game stretch — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Atlanta was expecting to be a better defensive team after trading away Trae Young — but they let the Lakers nail 55.9% of their shots from behind the arc and 57.8% of their shots overall on Tuesday. Under head coach Quinn Snyder, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 15 games when following a loss on the road by 20 or more points. This is a tough road spot for this team as they finish their four-game road trip out west tonight. This is their seventh road game in their last eight contests. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after playing their last three games on the road. This is their third game on the road since Sunday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for the third time on the road in a five-day span. This is also their fourth game on the road since Friday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing on the road for the fourth time in the last seven days. Furthermore, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games on the road when laying up to six points. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, including eight of those 10 games played at home. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (516) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (562) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (561). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-16) has won three of their last four games after their 115-102 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Cleveland (22-19) has lost two of their last three contests after their 123-112 upset loss as a 13-point favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Philadelphia will be at full strength tonight with both Joel Embiid and Paul George expected to join Tyrese Maxey on the court tonight. Kelly Oubre Jr. has played four games in a row as well after returning from an injury last Wednesday that kept him out for almost two months. This team is starting to raise its level of play with six victories in their last eight games. This is Philadelphia’s third game since Sunday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the third time in the last four days. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams winning 51-60% of their games. Cleveland is the first team in the league this season that has already matched their loss total from last year. The Cavaliers were flat at home against the Jazz on Monday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after suffering an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home. They go back on the road, where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games with the Total set at 230 or higher, including 10 of those 16 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers want to avenge a 132-121 loss at Cleveland on November 5th, the last time these two teams have played each other. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 opportunities for revenge -- and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Cleveland-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (562) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (545) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (546). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-15) has won two games in a row before their 100-97 loss at Houston as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Memphis (16-20) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 106-105 upset victory against San Antonio as a 6-point underdog last night. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix played the Rockets tough — but they may have still been riding high from their 18-point comeback to upset Oklahoma City the day before. The Suns are one of the surprises in the league this season — and they have still won six of their last eight games. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. The difference for this team this season is the play of their defense. After ranking 27th in the NBA by surrendering 117.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions last season, they have risen to 10th in the league this season by holding their opponents to 112.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the biggest improvement for any team in the NBA this season. The Suns have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. They thrive against teams that do not play great defense. The Grizzlies are allowing their opponents to make 46.5% of their shots, which results in 116.6 Points-Per-Game. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games against teams that allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots, including 10 of those 12 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams that are giving up 116 or more PPG, including five of those six games played on the road. Memphis comes off their best defensive performance of the season by holding the Spurs to just 37.3% shooting. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a win by six points or less. And while this is their third game since Sunday, they have failed to cover the point spread when playing for the third time in the last four days. Memphis tends to fold when finding themselves in close games. They entered the week with a Net Efficiency Margin of -11.2 points per 100 adjusted possessions in games with a +/- 3-point differential with three minutes left in the game — so don’t tear up your ticket if the game is close. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record, including six of those seven games at home. The Suns will be without Jalen Green, who is out with a hamstring — but the Memphis injury list is long. Zach Edey is out with an ankle. Cedric Coward is doubtful with an ankle. Both Ja Morant and Santi Aldama are both questionable with a calf and an ankle. 

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix will have extra motivation to avenge a 114-113 loss at home to the Grizzlies as a 2-point underdog on October 29th. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge. 20* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Phoenix Suns (545) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (512) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (511). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (23-10) has lost two games in a row after their 113-101 upset loss at home against Cleveland as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (24-9) has won three games in a row after their 130-125 win at New Orleans as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINTS: San Antonio had won eight of nine games during a stretch when the defeated Oklahoma City three times — but they have suffered two straight upset losses after following up an upset loss at home against Utah with their loss to the Cavaliers to begin the week. They only made 38.6% of their shots againstCleveland which was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after an upset loss in their last game. Only San Antonio and the Thunder rank in the top six in the NBA in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. At home, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 11 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, the Spurs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to six points. And in their last 19 games at home against teams from the Eastern Conference, they have covered the point spread in 13 of those games. Furthermore, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 13 of their 17 games against teams that are winning 70% or more of their games, including 7 of those 8 games played at home. The Spurs are dealing with some injuries, with Devin Vassell out with a groin injury and Stephon Castle questionable with a thumb, although he looks like he will take the court. New York has two absences that are most significant, with Josh Hart out with an ankle injury and Mitchell Robinson getting the night off due to his nagging ankle injury. Those are two of the Knicks’ best rebounders and defensive players. New York nailed 48.4% of their shots against the Pelicans, which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win by six points or less. They have played Overs in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. New York is tough to beat at home at Madison Square Garden — but on the road, they rank just 14th in the league with a Net Efficiency Margin of just +0.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in  11 of their 14 games on the road this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be motivated to avenge their 124-113 loss in the finals of the NBA Cup in Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games at home when playing with revenge — and they have covered 15 of their last 20 games at home when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (512) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (591) and the Los Angeles Lakers (592). THE SITUATION: Houston (17-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 128-102 upset loss at Atlanta as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (19-9) has lost two games in a row after their 132-108 loss at Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have suffered two straight upset losses, and they have lost five of their last seven contests. The problem has been on the defensive end of the court. They just let the Clippers nail 54.5% of their shots. Despite ranking tenth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they fall to 27th in that metric in their last seven games. This is not a great matchup for Houston tonight. The Lakers lead the NBA in free throw rate — and the Rockets have the second-worst defensive free throw rate in their last seven contests. Los Angeles ranks 10th in Points off Turnovers as well — and Houston allows the eighth most Points off Turnovers this season. Admittedly, after Sacramento and then the Clippers scored 125 and 128 points against them in their last two games, head coach Ime Udoka is likely demanding better play on defense from his group. But it is worth noting that Houston has played 27 of their 51 games Over the Total with Udoka as their head coach after allowing their last two opponents to go Over their specific team Total. The Rockets rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Houston has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. They finish their six-game road trip tonight — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row on the road. They have played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total, including 12 of their 17 games away from home this season. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total when favored, including five of those seven games when laying up to six points. Alperen Sengun is questionable to play tonight after tweaking his hamstring at the end of practice yesterday. I’m sure he wants to play in this high-profile matchup — but if he cannot, that does not tank our Over play. Sengun is one of their best defensive players as their rim protector. And while the Rockets’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency both go down when he is off the court this season, their pace rises from 98.11 possessions per 48 minutes to 101.08 possessions per 48 minutes — so the loss in Offensive Efficiency and gain in Defensive Efficiency is mitigated by Houston playing at a faster pace. By the way, I don’t believe the Rockets are better defensively with Sengun off the court — I suspect that is sample size noise and a reflection of the second team defensive efficiency. Last season, Houston surrendered +2.4 Adjusted Points Per Possession when Sengun was off the court from a denser sample size. If Sengun does not play tonight, I expect the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers to be about a wash — but for the Rockets to play at a quicker pace. The Lakers are expecting both Luka Doncic and Rui Hachimura to take the court tonight after they have missed games recently. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road against a fellow Pacific Division rival. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Head coach J.J. Reddick has complained that his team is playing defense as if they are “stuck in mud.” Well, even Doncic drinking only lite beer now and getting the 40-year-old LeBron James back on the court after he eased his way into action this season is going to do that. While ranking 24th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they drop to 28th in that metric in their last seven games. When James is on the court this season, the Lakers have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 120.8. That mark would be the third worst in the NBA if extended to the entire season — and Los Angeles is surrendering -5.6 fewer Adjusted Points per 100 possessions when he is off the court. It’s Christmas Day — James is going to play a lot tonight. The Lakers have played 8 of their 12 games that James has played this season Over the Total. Los Angeles returns home, where they have played all 11 of their games Over the Total this season. They have also played 10 of their 13 games Over the Total as an underdog this season, including four games at home. And in their last 20 games at home with the Total set at 230 or less going back to last season, they have played 13 of those games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are giving up 117.2 Points-Per-Game this season — and the Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams who allow 116.0 or more PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (591) and the Los Angeles Lakers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (560) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (559). THE SITUATION: Golden State (13-12) has won two games in a row after their 123-91 victory at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (15-9) had won five games in a row before their 108-105 upset loss at home against Phoenix as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State has been without Stephen Curry for the last five games. Despite his absence, head coach Steve Kerr has his team playing well. They rank second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.7 — and in their last seven games, that mark improves to 106.6. Their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin in their last seven games of +6.5 would rank fifth in the NBA for the entire season. Draymond Green is taking the night off for personal reasons — but Jimmy Butler is back, and Kerr is deploying a deep bench. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road by 20 or more points. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home, where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season when favored. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games at home after playing their previous three games on the road. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing with three or more days of rest. The Timberwolves will likely be without Anthony Edwards, who is listed as doubtful with a foot injury. With Michael Conley out with an ankle, that leaves them thin at point guard tonight. As it is, Minnesota ranks 18th in the league by turning the ball over in 14.9% of their possessions — and the Warriors rank sixth in the NBA by forcing turnovers in 15.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Timberwolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 220s. 

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has been feasting on bad teams — their recent winning streak included two games against New Orleans and one game against the slumping Los Angeles Clippers. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games against teams with a winning record this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their games against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (560) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (503). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 112-108 win at Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Antonio (16-7) has won three of their last four games after their 135-132 win at New Orleans as a 9-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles’ recent seven-game winning streak were all against teams with a losing record — but recent victories on the road against Toronto and then Philadelphia have demonstrated they can beat winning teams in hostile environments. The Lakers have a 6-5 straight-up record against teams with a winning record this season — but more importantly for our purposes, they have covered the point spread in 8 of those 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range, including all five of those games this season. Head coach J.J. Redick has a good thing going. Luka Doncic leads the league by scoring 38.1 Points-Per-Game. Austin Reaves is the leading scorer for numbers twos with his 28.4 PPG scoring average. DeAndre Ayton already has more 20-point/10-rebound games this season than he had all of last year — he has thrived in the specific role Redick has given him with this team. And LeBron James is now in the mix after being injured to begin the season — and he has the freedom to pick his spots. No wonder this team ranks second in the league in half-court scoring efficiency. Stopping their opponent from scoring remains their biggest liability — but they did play their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the 76ers to just 35.3% shooting. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with two days of rest. Now, after playing their last three games on the road, Los Angeles returns home, where they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points. San Antonio has a tough assignment playing their fourth game in a row on the road. Victor Wembanyama remains out with his calf injury. They have an 8-3 record since his injury — but they have dropped from fourth in the NBA in total rebounding to 24th in that category without their 7’4 superstar. The Spurs also miss his defensive presence. After Cleveland made 58.1% of their shots against them in their previous game, the lowly Pelicans shot 58.0% from the field against them. On the road, they rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their home hosts are making 48.6% of their shots against them. They also rank 18th in half-court defensive efficiency. But those numbers are propped up by the 12 games that Wemby has played before his injury. When Wemby is on the court this season, San Antonio’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency would rank second to Oklahoma City for the best mark in the league. But when he is off the court, the Spurs’ defense drops to a tie for 24th place in the league. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in a whopping 13 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win by six points or less, including all eight of those games played on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win against a fellow Southwest Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 136 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, this is the Spurs’ fourth straight road game in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games on the road when playing with one day of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 11 games away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And while the Lakers are making 50.7% of their shots this season, San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams that shoot 46% or better from the field. The Spurs’ opponents are making 47.1% of their shots against them — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams who are allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on November 5th when the Lakers upset San Antonio at home by a 118-116 score as a 1-point underdog. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 opportunities on the road to avenge a same-season loss, including six of those eight games this year. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road, including five of those six games this season. 25* NBA Cup Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (577) and the Milwaukee Bucks (578). THE SITUATION: Detroit (17-4) has won two games in a row after their 99-98 win at home against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (9-13) has lost eight of their last nine contests after their 129-126 upset loss at Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pistons have won 15 of their last 17 games — but those 99 points they scored against the Hawks were the second-lowest mark of the season and the fewest points they have scored in their last 17 contests. They only made 44.2% of their shots from the field against Atlanta, which was the third-lowest shooting percentage in their last ten contests. They have nailed at least 50% of their shots in five of their last eight contests. Detroit lives in the paint — they are taking 56.9% of their shots inside the paint, which would be the highest mark in the last 13 NBA regular seasons. They are also playing at the tenth fastest pace in the league. They are making 48.6% of their shots, which is resulting in 118.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are even better on the road by making 51.0% of their shots, which is generating 119.9 PGG. The Pistons have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 6 of their 7 games this season Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s, including all four of those games played on the road. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, while the Bucks are getting outrebounded by -5.1 Rebounds-Per-Game, Detroit has played 5 of their 6 games on the road this season Over the Total against teams who are getting outrebounded by -3.0 or more RPG. Milwaukee nailed 54.8% of their shots against the Wizards, which was the third straight game where they made at least 52.1% of their shots. Not coincidentally, Giannis Antetokounmpo played in all three of those games after missing four games in a row last month. The Bucks are scoring at a 125.7 points per 100 possession pace when the Greek Freak is on the court — and that mark would be the best in the NBA if applied to the entire season. He is scoring 30.3 PPG. Milwaukee is making 51.2% of their shots at home, which is resulting in 119.9 PPG, which is +3.9 PPG above their season average. The problem is on the other end of the court, where they just allowed the woeful Wizards to make 52.0% of their shots. The Bucks rank 23rd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their guests to convert on 48.3% of their shots when playing at home, which is resulting in 118.9 PPG. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 12 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played all 5 of their games at home as an underdog Over the Total. They have also played all 4 of their games Over the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, while this is their eighth game since November 20th, they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Over the Total when playing for the eighth time in the last 14 days. And in their last 23 games at home with one day of rest, the Bucks have played 20 of these games Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: After the Pistons’ 129-115 victory on the road in Milwaukee on November 22nd in the first meeting between these two teams, these Central Division rivals have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Detroit Pistons (577) and the Milwaukee Bucks (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (556) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (555). THE SITUATION: Boston (11-9) has won three of their last four games after their 117-115 upset win at Cleveland as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. New York (13-6) has won four games in a row after their 116-94 win against Toronto as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Joe Mazzulla has his team playing better in the last few weeks as they continue to adjust to playing without Jayson Tatum, who is out for the season with his torn Achilles injury he suffered in the playoffs last spring. Boston has won six of their last eight games. In their last ten games, they rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they also rank fifth in the league in Net Efficiency Margin during that span. Jaylen Brown has increased his usage rate to 36.7% in his last eight games, which may explain the improved efficiency on offense for this club. And they have not been simply skating on an easy schedule — they have beaten Detroit, Orlando, and the Cavaliers in the last ten days. After beginning the season with five losses in their seven games against teams who currently have a winning record, they have since beaten four of their last six opponents with winning records. They should be able to get this 3-point shooting going against this Knicks team that is vulnerable in this area. The Celtics rank third in the league by averaging 43.0 shots from behind the arc per game. New York allows 15.0 made 3s per game, ranking 28th in the NBA — and they also rank 25th by allowing their opponents to make 37.6% of their 3-point attempts. This is Boston’s sixth game in the last two weeks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games against teams with a winning record this season. New York has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Knicks are surviving despite O.G. Anunoby being on the shelf with a left hamstring injury — but this may be the game that they will miss his physical defensive presence to help slow down Brown’s slashing to the rim. Landry Shamet is also out with a shoulder — he and Anunoby combine to score 24.9 Points-Per-Game. New York is just 3-5 on the road this season with a Net Efficiency Margin of -0.2. The Celtics have a 6-4 record at home with a +6.8 Net Efficiency Margin. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games on the road this season, including all three games when they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher, including six of those seven games this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks won the first meeting between these two teams at Madison Square Garden back on October 24th — and the Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 opportunities for revenge, including 7 of those 10 games played at home. 10* NBA New York-Boston NBC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (556) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (533) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (534). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-7) has lost two games in a row after their 117-112 upset loss at Sacramento as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Oklahoma City (17-1) has won nine games in a row after their 122-95 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunder held the Trail Blazers to just 37.0% shooting on Sunday in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Oklahoma City is only giving up 105.7 Points-Per-Game and they lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency despite playing without All-NBA defensive first team member Jalen Williams. It may be too contrarian to take the Over in Thunder games, but two thoughts about that. First, Oklahoma City has faced a disproportionate number of the league’s second-tier offenses. So while their defense is really good, it is probably not as good as the underlying metrics indicate right now. Second, their great defense generates scoring opportunities. The Thunder lead the NBA by forcing turnovers in 17.9% of their opponents’ possessions — and these turnovers create scoring opportunities in transition that this team feasts on. Oklahoma City scores 122.6 PPG — and they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The offense struggled out of the game. They were not hitting their 3-pointers early in the season — and they currently rank 16th in the NBA with a 36.1% clip from behind the arc. But in their last nine games, the Thunder are making 38.6% of their shots from downtown, ranking eighth in the league over that stretch. The other area that was holding this team back on offense was the 15 minutes or so per game when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not on the court. Williams often becomes the primary scorer when SGA is taking a break. But the bench has stepped up recently by scoring an adjusted 116 points per 100 possessions in their last three games, which is just 3.6 points per 100 possessions behind their season average. Ajay Mitchell has emerged as their best player coming off the bench — he has scored 15 PPG on 57% shooting in those three contests. When Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court, he has been sublime with a 32.2 PPG scoring average. He is listed as questionable to play tonight with an illness, but the reports I am seeing are that he has a decent chance of playing (and money is on the line since it is an NBA Cup contest). Aaron Wiggins is doubtful with a thigh injury — and he is another one of the team’s better defensive players. The Thunder have played 5 of their 7 games this season Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 23 of their last 35 home games Over the Total when laying 6.5 to 12 points. And in their 4 games this season at home with the Total set in the 220s, OKC has played 3 of these games Over the Total. Minnesota only made 41.2% of their shots on Monday, which was the worst shooting effort of their season. They did hold the Kings to 43.3% shooting, which was the second-best defensive effort in their last six games. The Timberwolves are scoring 119.6 PPG this season — and that number would probably be higher if not for Anthony Edwards missing four games to injury this season. But given the decline of Michael Conley, Edwards is more often being relied upon to be the primary ball-handler despite his skillset probably being better suited as a shooting guard. Minnesota ranks 17th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.0% of their possessions — so OKC should get plenty of scoring opportunities in transition. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 47 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played six of those seven games Over the Total this season. They have played all 4 of their games on the road Over the Total this season with the Total set in the 220s. The 117.1 PPG Minnesota surrenders when playing on the road is +2.9 more PPG than their season defensive average — and their 119.8 PPG scoring average away from home is higher than their season scoring average.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have a 2-0 record with a +63 net point differential in the Western Conference Group A in the NBA Cup. The Timberwolves have a 2-1 record with a +53 net point differential. Phoenix looms with a 2-0 record in Group A before they play at Sacramento tonight. Given that net point differential is a tie-breaker to determine group winners and the two wild cards in each conference, both of these teams are incentivized to keep playing hard and scoring. Oklahoma City is outscoring their opponents at a historic +16.9 net PPG — and Minnesota has played 22 of their last 35 games Over the Total against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. The T-Wolves have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games. The Timberwolves are outscoring their opponents by +5.4 net PPG — and the Thunder have played 14 of the last 22 home games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. OKC has also played 8 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (533) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (538) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (9-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 127-110 upset win at Portland as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (10-5) has won six of their last seven games after their 120-109 win against Washington as a 16.5-point favorite on Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: One of the biggest surprises early this season is the quality of play by Phoenix. They compete, they defend, and they play together for rookie head coach Jordan Ott. In other words, it is completely the opposite of last year, with their “big three” of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker under head coach Mike Budenholzer. Booker has thrived as the clear leader of this team now that Durant and Beal have moved on. He is scoring 27.8 Points-Per-Game on 49.3% shooting — and he is adding 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is supported by Dillon Brooks, who is scoring 20.9 PPG. The Suns rank ninth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and their rise to 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency represents the third biggest improvement in that metric from last season. Ott has this group of lunch pail players playing smart by emphasizing increasing their possessions. They rank fifth in the NBA by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. They are also forcing turnovers in 16.5% of their opponents' possessions, which ranks fourth best in the league — this is mostly a product of Ott directing his players to begin defending the ball at the second-highest jump in average pick-up distance. These are areas of vulnerability for the Timberwolves. Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.9% of their missed shots. They rank 13th in the league by turning the ball over in 14.6% of their possession. T-Wolves head coach Chris Finch has dropped point guard Michael Conley’s minutes below 21 minutes per game, which means more ball handling for Anthony Edwards. While Ant is a superstar, he can get loose with the basketball and with his decision-making. He averages 2.3 turnovers per game with a 13.2% turnover rate. At home, Phoenix has a +12.9 net Adjusted Efficiency margin — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games on their home court this season. They will be without Grayson Allen, who is dealing with a right quad — he is their third-leading scorer. They missed him on Sunday when they blew a 22-point lead against Atlanta. But without Allen on Tuesday, they took care of business against the Trail Blazers, playing on the road. This has been a feisty bunch that has only gotten five quarters from Jalen Green before he got injured and remains out. On the other hand, the Timberwolves may be without their third-leading scorer, Jaden McDaniels, who is questionable for tonight’s game with an injury. He is scoring 17.5 PPG. Admittedly, the Suns have benefitted from a soft schedule — but so has Minnesota. The T-Wolves are 10-0 this season against teams under .500 — but they are a winless 0-5 in their five games against teams above .500. Minnesota’s ten wins should make them blush: two victories against Sacramento and Utah apiece, wins against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indiana, and Portland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 contests. Of concern is the play of their defense. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season, they have dropped to 13th in that metric despite playing bottom-10 offenses in terms of efficiency in eight of their games. They entered the week with the sixth-worst drop in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency versus last season. The Timberwolves are 5-2 on the road — but their Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.4 is far below Phoenix’s home net rating. 

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has a 2-0 NBA Cup record in Group A in the Western Conference with a +54 point differential. This is just the Suns’ second game in the NBA Cup after winning their first game by 22 points — so they are alive in this competition. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (538) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (507) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 117-113 victory against Orlando as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 118-106 win against Milwaukee as a 6-point favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Houston opened the season by losing their first two contests — but they have since rattled off nine victories in their last ten games. They survived their game with the Magic despite only making 42% of their shots, which was a season low. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games after a win by six points or less. Houston leads the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Overall, this team is tied for second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. They dominate their opponents on the glass. Led by Alperen Sengun, the Rockets lead the NBA by pulling down an incredible 40.8% of their missed shots. They limit their opponents to rebounding 29.9% of their missed shots, ranking ninth best in the league. Rebounding travels — and that makes Houston’s strong shooting away from home even more of a threat for home teams. They are making 50.3% of their shots away from home, including 43.6% of their shots from behind the arc. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when favored by up to six points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against teams winning 60-70% of their games. Jabari Smith is listed as questionable tonight with a knee — but the indications are he has a decent shot of playing. Cleveland is missing some important players. After returning from toe surgery over the summer, Darius Garland re-aggravated that injury after just three games and will miss more time. Jaylon Tyson is also out with an injury, and Sam Merrill is questionable with a hand injury. Those absences leave the Cavaliers a little thin in their backcourt. They made 55.7% of their shots on Monday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Cavaliers rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also rank ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering 116.2 Points-Per-Game. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams that are giving up 116 or more PPG. Cleveland is just 16th in the league by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.4% of their missed shots — so Houston should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record. 

FINAL TAKE: The lack of guard depth could spell trouble for the Cavaliers tonight. For the season (and healthier, in general), they rank 11th in the league by turning the ball over in 14.4% of their possessions. The Rockets generate 9.3 Steals-Per-Game — and Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams that average 9.0 or more Steals-Per-Game. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month is with the Houston Rockets (507) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 111-100 loss at Charlotte as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (4-7) had lost three games in a row before that win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hornets pulled off that upset despite playing without their best player, LeMelo Ball. But Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo in that game as well, perhaps to rest for tonight’s NBA Cup contest. Antetokounmpo is having an MVP start to the season — he is scoring 33.4 Points-Per-Game with an effective field goal percentage of 64.9%. He is adding 11.9 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.2 Assists-Per-Game. The Bucks won their first NBA Cup game — and they are in second place in Group C, trailing Miami by two points in the net point differential tie-breaker. Because of that net point differential factor, there is no garbage time in these NBA Cup games, which makes it more likely that point spreads like this will get covered by the winning team. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up loss on the road. The Bucks’ experiment of pairing Antetokounmpo with Damian Lillard failed last season. But Milwaukee did finish the season going 19-10 and ranking eighth in the league Offensive Efficiency after Lillard’s season-ending injury. The approach to surround Antetokounmpo with four shooters was very effective since it gave him space to drive the lane. In the offseason, management declined to extend Lillard’s contract and opted to sign Myles Turner as a younger and more versatile replacement for Brook Lopez. The Bucks rank third in the league in half-court offense — and the Hornets rank 30th in half-court defense. Milwaukee returns home, where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Bucks rank fourth in the league by turning the ball over in just 13.5% of their possessions. Charlotte ranks 29th in the NBA by forcing only 11.9 turnovers per game — and Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams that do not force 13 or more turnovers per game. Charlotte has benefitted from a soft schedule. Two of their wins were against Brooklyn and Washington, who have a combined 2-21 record. Their third victory was against a 4-8 Utah squad. The Hornets lost their opening NBA Cup game by 18 points — so they are in trouble already. They have only gotten two games from Brandon Miller before he got injured. They are going young and often starting three rookies: Don Knueppel, Sion James, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner is not playing tonight for a personal reason, which further challenges the depth of this team that handed the bad New Orleans Pelicans their only victory. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road in November. Milwaukee is making 49.8% of their shots — and the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this season against teams that are nailing 46% or more of their shots. The Bucks are allowing their opponents to make 46.4% of their shots — but Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 road games against teams that are allowing their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. And while Milwaukee is giving up 117.5 PPG, the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games against teams who are surrendering 116 or more PPG, including 9 of those 12 games played on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities for revenge this season. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (563) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (564). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-1) has won six of their last seven games after their 121-111 victory at Charlotte as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Oklahoma City (11-1) has won three games in a row after a 126-102 win at home against Golden State as an 8-point favorite last night. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 9 of their 11 games Over the Total this season. Luka Doncic is scoring 37.1 Points-Per-Game — and Austin Reaves has demonstrated that he is more than capable of being a reliable second scoring option with LeBron James out with an injury, as he is adding 30.3 PPG. The newcomers from free agency in the offseason are contributing. DeAndre Ayton is scoring 16.3 PPG. Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart are both scoring in the double-digits per game. Los Angeles is making 51.2% of their shots which is resulting in 118.1 PPG — and they rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But defense is going to be a liability all season. Doncic and Reeves are both below-average defenders — and the only player on the roster who is considered a good defensive player is Smart. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots, which is resulting in 116.5 PPG — and they rank 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their last five opponents have made 50.6% of their shots against them after the Hornets converted on 52.1% of their shots on Monday. This is the Lakers’ third road game since Saturday — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on the road for the third time in five days. They have played 17 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played all 7 of their games this season Over the Total as an underdog. The Thunder are out-rebounding their opponents by +3.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and LA has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against opponents who are out-rebounding their opponents by +3.0 or RPG. Oklahoma City has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. And while this is their third game since Sunday, they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four days. The defending NBA champions are only making 34.0% of their 3-pointers — but that mark has started to climb back up to their 3-point shooting from last season in the last two weeks. They are playing without the injured Jalen Williams right now — and the Over is 16-10-1 in their last 27 games without him. Chet Holmgren is playing with more confidence this season after his playoff experiences of last spring — he is scoring 19.6 Points-Per-Game. Lu Dort is questionable with a shoulder injury — and he is one of their best defensive players. OKC will miss his 3-point shooting if he does not take the court tonight — but Isaiah Joe is nailing 41.0% of his 3s so far this season and will get more time on the floor if Dort does not play. Aaron Wiggins is questionable with a thigh injury — and he is another one of the team’s better defensive players. The Thunder stay at home where they are scoring 124.4 PPG. They have played 4 of their 5 home games Over the Total this season. OKC has played 36 of their last 59 games Over the Total at home when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 24 home games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, Oklahoma City has played 12 of their last 18 home games Over the Total against teams who are giving up 116 or more points — and they have played 22 of their last 34 home games Over the Total against teams who are allowing their opponents to make at least 46% or more of their shots. They have also played 14 of their last 22 home games Over the Total against teams that are scoring 116 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Thunder have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 70% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: After acquiring Doncic last season, the Lakers scoring at a 126.8 points per 100 points pace against OKC in their two games against them in April. LA ranks second in the league in free throw rate — and they average 28 free throw attempts per game. I love scoring when the clock is stopped — and this is one of the Thunder’s relative liabilities since they pressure the ball to force turnovers. Oklahoma City ranks 18th in the NBA in opponent free throw rate -- and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams that average 27 or more free throw attempts per game. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (563) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-2) has won four straight games after their 117-100 win at home against Indiana as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Sacramento (3-7) has lost three of their last four contests after their 144-117 loss against Minnesota as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver is rolling. Their average margin of victory in their seven wins is +18.1 Points-Per-Game. Their two losses were by a combined eight points and resulted from blowing fourth quarter leads. That the Nuggets rank second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so far this season is not much of a surprise. Nikola Jokic is scoring 25.2 PPG, pulling down 13.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, and dishing 11.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is nailing 64% of his shots. But that Denver ranks second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is a shocker since it was the disappointing play on that end of the court that got head coach Mike Malone fired with three games left in the regular season. Credit goes to David Adelman, who took over as an interim head coach and led the Nuggets to a seven-game series against Oklahoma City before losing to the eventual NBA champions in the Western Conference semifinals. Increased use of zone defenses has made a big difference. That was enough for Adelman to get the interim removed from his title. The team had a great offseason by trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, signing Tim Hardaway Jr., and bringing back Bruce Brown in free agency. The roster may be as good as the one that won the NBA title a few years ago. Denver ranks second (to the Thunder) in Net Adjusted Efficiency this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their 24 games with Adelman as their head coach. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home, including four of those five games this season. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in November. Furthermore, Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games as a favorite this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games when laying 3.5-9.5 points since Adelman took over late last season. Aaron Gordon is doubtful to play tonight with a hamstring injury, and Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf (although that situation looks fairly optimistic) — but backing this team with those players out is not as troubling given their improved depth, especially when Jokic and company are playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is a mess — they have lost their last two games by 27 and 31 points. Their best defensive player, Keegan Murray, has yet to play for them this season. They rank 27th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and five of their last six opponents have made at least 51.5% of their shots. Domantas Sabonis is questionable with a rib injury — and things get very rough for them if they are without their best big man. The roster mix of this team is questionable: Zach LaVine, Dennis Schroder, DeMar DeRozan, and Russell Westbrook. It’s as if someone thought it was a good idea to reunite the former Chicago Bulls duo of LaVine and DeRozan with some of the league’s most prolific misfit toys. This mix is supposed to be explosive on the offensive end of the court — yet they rank only 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are getting crushed on the boards as well and rank 26th in rebounding percentage. Overall, this team ranks 26th in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home, including 11 of those 15 games played again on their home court. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home, including four of their five games this season. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Kings want to avenge a 130-124 loss at Denver on November 3rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NBA Tuesday NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (555) and the Sacramento Kings (556). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (8-1) saw their eight-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 121-119 upset loss at Portland as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Sacramento (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 121-116 win against Golden State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We were on the Trail Blazers on Wednesday — and they held the Thunder to just a 41.8% field goal percentage, which was their worst shooting effort so far this season. Oklahoma City has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss against a fellow Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, while the Thunder have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The defending NBA champions are only making 34.0% of their 3-pointers — but that mark has started to climb back up to their 3-point shooting from last season in the last week or so. This team is not pushing the pace in transition as much as they did last year — but losing on Wednesday may compel them to play with more urgency tonight, especially since this is an NBA Cup contest. They are playing without the injured Jalen Williams right now — and the Over is 14-9-1 in their last 24 games without him. Chet Holmgren is playing with more confidence this season after his playoff experiences of last spring — he is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game. Lu Dort is questionable with a shoulder injury — and he is one of their best defensive players. OKC will miss his 3-point shooting if he does not take the court tonight — but Isaiah Joe is nailing 43.6% of his 3s so far this season and will get more time on the floor if Dort does not play. Aaron Wiggins is out tonight with a thigh injury, and Alex Caruso is doubtful because of rest — and those are two more of the team’s better defensive players. The Thunder have played 6 of their 9 games Over the Total this season when favored — and they have played 26 of their last 43 games Over the Total when laying double digits. Sacramento made 49.4% of their shots on Wednesday, which was actually their worst shooting effort in their last four contests. And by holding the Warriors to 44.9% shooting, they played their second defensive game of the season. The Kings have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Head coach Doug Christie wants his team to push the pace — they rank 11th in that metric this season. But this team also ranks 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacramento is playing without Keegan Murray, who is on the shelf with an injury. He is the team’s best defender, but he disappointed by scoring only 12.4 PPG and making just 34.3% of his shots from behind the arc. They also may be without Domantas Sabonis, which will take away one of their key interior defenders. The Kings have played 14 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog this season. 

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from the Thunder’s 107-101 win at home against Sacramento on October 28th. The Kings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and these two teams have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in Sacramento. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (555) and the Sacramento Kings (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (530) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (529). THE SITUATION: Portland (4-3) had won three games in a row before their 123-115 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Oklahoma City (8-0) has won their first eight games of the season after their 126-107 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 8.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has played well since getting rocked by the news regarding the allegations against head coach Chauncey Billups being involved in mob-related, rigged poker games and intentionally losing NBA games two years ago. He is suspended from the team indefinitely. The team is playing hard for interim head coach Tiago Splitter. Despite the tanking allegations, the Trail Blazers consistently played hard for him last season — they posted a 47-34-1 ATS mark last year. They allowed the Lakers to make 58.8% of their shots against them, which was the worst defensive effort of their season — but that was just the second time when an opponent shot better than 48.8% from the field against them in their first seven games. They are still without Scoot Henderson tonight, who will miss the first few months recovering from his hamstring injury. But Portland still has a solid backcourt even without Henderson, as they have the emerging Shaedon Sharpe (18.5 Points-Per-Game last season), along with Jrue Holiday, who they acquired in the offseason from Boston. The Trail Blazers have become one of the best defensive teams in the league. Forward Toumain Camara was named to the second team All-Defensive team last year. Center Donovan Clingan is a good rim protector. From February through the rest of the regular season, Portland ranked fourth in the NBA by holding their opponents to 112.0 points per 100 possessions. Putting Holiday and his excellent chest-to-chest defensive skills into the mix will make them even better in this department. So far this season, the Trail Blazers rank ninth in the league by holding their opponents to 111.7 Adjusted Points per 100 Possessions. Portland usually exceeds expectations when playing at home, where they covered the point spread in 28 of their last 45 games. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their 26 home games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. I generally don’t love fading Oklahoma City — but tonight is a good opportunity to do it, considering their eight-game winning streak. NBA teams that have won eight or more games in a row have then failed to cover the point spread in 43 of those last 72 circumstances. The Thunder have been a very reliable team relative to point spread expectations — but it is noteworthy that they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 17 games played without rest. This is their second game being played without rest this season after beating Sacramento at home by a 107-101 score as a 9-point favorite on October 28th. They are still without Jalen Williams, who has yet to play this season due to an injury — so his absence challenges their depth tonight. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 28 road games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder do not have many red flags in their ATS profile since last season — but what does stand out is that they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* NBA Northwest Division Underdog of the Month is with the Portland Trail Blazers (530) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (508) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (507). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-1) had won their first five games of the season before a 128-116 loss in New York against the Knicks as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Philadelphia (5-1) rebounded from their opening loss of the season against Boston on Friday with a 129-105 victory at Brooklyn as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago has been one of the early surprises in the league — but head coach Billy Donovan began laying the seeds regarding how his team would look at the trade deadline last year when the Bulls traded away Zach LaVine. After also trading away DeMar DeRozan in the offseason last year, the franchise concluded that the duo was not going to lead them to the promised land. Now Donovan has a young roster that he can mold into player better fundamental basketball. DeRozan and LaVine were not a good fit together since both tend to live in the midrange when it comes to their shooting. Chicago ranked third in the league last season by averaging 42.0 shots from behind the arc. They also played at the third fastest pace last year. After the All-Star break, the Bulls posted a 17-10 record before losing in the Play-In Tournament. After LaVine was traded, Josh Giddey stepped up to score 21.2 Points-Per-Game — and he added 21.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 9.3 Assists-Per-Game while shooting 50% from the field and 45.7% from behind the arc. Chicago’s defense also improved after the All-Star break by ranking 10th in Defensive Rating — and they limited their opponents to 34.3% shooting from behind the arc. It should not be a surprise that the Bulls rank in the top ten in Defensive Efficiency and pace of play so far this season. Shooting guard Cody White has yet to play this season due to a calf injury — but that means more minutes for Trey Jones, who is a much better defender. After a slow start on the offensive end of the report, that area has picked up for Chicago — in fact, their 48.4% shooting clip against the Knicks was their worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Since Donovan took over as their head coach, they have a 61-48 ATS mark on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams from the Atlantic Division. Philadelphia comes off their best game of the season. Their 52.1% field goal percentage was their best mark of the young season — and they played their best defensive game so far this year by holding the Nets to 43.3% shooting. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against a fellow Atlantic Division rival, including those last four games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road against division opponents. Philly is not at 100% with Paul George still out, dealing with his knee injury — although Jared McCain is expected to make his season debut tonight after a promising rookie campaign in 23 games last year. Joel Embiid is playing, but head coach Nick Nurse is limiting him to only 20 minutes a game right now as he deals with his chronic health issues. Tyrese Maxey has been great — and the team appears to have drafted a gem at the third pick in the draft by selecting V.J. Edgecore out of Baylor. But this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bulls (508) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (554) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (553). THE SITUATION: Portland (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 118-114 loss at home against Minnesota as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 137-131 win in overtime at home against Denver as a 2-point favorite last night. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Having to travel and playing without rest is hard enough on most teams. When having to do this after playing a game that went into overtime is even a bigger challenge. But this is easier to do when one is in their early 20s. Golden State is led by Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, who are 37, 36, and 35 years old. These veterans, who have all won NBA titles, have been there and done that — so playing without rest in Portland for a non-televised game in October is not very inspiring. The newly acquired 39-year-old Al Horford has already tapped out and will not play tonight due to “rest.” And while head coach Steve Kerr has good depth to his roster, the Warriors are not at full strength with De’Anthony Melton out with a knee injury and Moses Moody questionable with a calf. As it is, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, the Warriors are underwater when laying the points lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games when favored. Portland was rocked yesterday with the allegations regarding head coach Chauncey Billups being involved in mob-related rigged poker games and intentionally losing NBA games two years ago. He is suspended from the team indefinitely — Tiago Splitter will serve as their interim head coach. Despite the tanking allegations, the Trail Blazers consistently played hard for him last season — they posted a 47-34-1 ATS mark last year. Given all this, along with the desire to impress their new head man, I expect this team to play very hard tonight. They are without Scoot Henderson tonight, who will miss the first few months recovering from his hamstring injury — and backup center Robert Williams III is dealing with a knee. Portland still has a solid backcourt even without Henderson, as they have the emerging Shaedon Sharpe (18.5 Points-Per-Game last season), along with Jrue Holiday, who they acquired in the offseason from Boston. The Trail Blazers have become one of the best defensive teams in the league. Forward Toumain Camara was named to the second team All-Defensive team last year. Center Donovan Clingan is a good rim protector. From February through the rest of the regular season, Portland ranked fourth in the NBA by holding their opponents to 112.0 points per 100 possessions. Putting Holiday and his excellent chest-to-chest defensive skills into the mix will make them even better in this department. Portland usually exceeds expectations when playing at home, where they covered the point spread in 26 of their last 42 games. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 games at home against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when getting up to six points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (554) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (511) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512). THE SITUATION: Toronto (0-0) finished in 11th place in the Eastern Conference last season with a 30-52 record. Atlanta (0-0) did not make the playoffs after losing in the Play-In Tournament and finishing the season with a 40-44 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto posted a 48-33-1 ATS record last season. There are two main reasons why they consistently overachieved relative to point spread expectations. First, the players bought into second-year head coach Darko Rajakovic’s system and played hard for him. Second, their defensive style of play, which frequently deploys full-court pressure travels. The Raptors posted the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after the All-Star break, just behind Oklahoma City. Their 15.1 forced turnovers per game tied for seventh-best in the league. They also held their opponents to just 34.9% shooting from behind the arc, ranking fourth best in the NBA. Some bettors may be spooked by their mere 30 victories last season — but this team was ravaged by injuries. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickly, R.J. Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Gradey Dick missed a combined 143 games last season. And don’t forget about Brandon Ingram, who they acquired at the trade deadline but who never suited up for them with an ankle injury. They are healthy now — so this is a different group, in practice, than the one that played on most nights last season. Rajakovic plans on a deep rotation of up to 11 players to facilitate the constant pressure he wants to deploy. This defensive intensity travels as the Raptors covered the point spread in 24 of their last 41 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog, getting up to six points. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games when getting 3.5-9.5 points as the underdog. Atlanta is another team that dealt with plenty of injuries last season. The Hawks have definitely improved their roster after acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard in the offseason. It may take some time for head coach Quin Snyder to develop chemistry for his group — and the Raptors’ defensive pressure may expose this cohesion concern (pressure bursts pipes). The Hawks may struggle early on finding balance on offense — a consistent issue with Young being so ball-centric. Not only do they have to integrate Porzingis into this mix, but they also get Jalen Johnson back after his season-ending injury last January. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home as a favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams from the Atlantic Division. 

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have simply not been reliable favorites with Young as the leader of their team. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when laying 3.5-9.5 points, including 9 of those 13 games at home. They also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when laying up to six points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (511) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (501) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (502). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) tips off their season after losing Game Seven to Golden State in the opening round of the playoffs last May. Oklahoma City (0-0) won their first NBA championship by beating Indiana in seven games in the NBA Finals last June.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets boosted their scoring attack by acquiring Kevin Durant in the offseason. But Fred VanVleet is out for the season with a torn ACL injury. Amen Thompson will take over the point guard duties — but that will likely be a work in progress early in the season. Shaky ball-handling is not a good recipe against the Thunder, who thrive in forcing turnovers and creating scoring opportunities in transition. Houston has played 27 of their last 43 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Rockets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Oklahoma City will be without Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Kenrich Williams tonight. The absence of both Williams players takes away two of their best defensive players. As it is, the Thunder has played 32 of their last 53 games Over the Total when playing at home. They have also played 15 of their last 24 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played April 4th when Houston won by a 125-111 score as a 6-point favorite with the Total set at 227.5. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City O/U NBC-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (501) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (513) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (514) in Game Seven of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (64-39) forced a climactic Game Seven to determine the NBA champion with a 108-91 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Oklahoma City (82-22) had won the last two games in this series before dropping Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is not as if the Pacers shot the lights out in Game Five. They missed their first eight shots in the game — and their final 41.3% field goal percentage was the worst shooting mark in their last seven contests. Head coach Rick Carlisle’s defensive game plan was sound — and the Thunder did not look up to the task to close the series out. Indiana has played 11 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 11 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after an upset victory. Tyrese Haliburton deserves credit for gutting out in Game Six — but he was not his usual self as he scored 14 points on 5 of 12 shooting and only got to the free throw line once in his 22:52 minutes. His injury has been described as one that would require seven to days of rest if it was in the regular season. I think it is fair to assume Haliburton will not be close to 100% for Game Seven. The Pacers have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.7 on the road in this series —  even with Haliburton at full strength in two of those games — far below their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.4 during the regular season. What Carlisle will emphasize to his team to once again limit turnovers — they only turned the ball over 10 times which led to just 13 points for the Thunder. If Oklahoma City is not scoring points on the fast break nor making their 3-pointers, they become a mediocre half-court scoring team. They entered the fourth quarter with three made shots from behind the arc in 20 shot attempts before improving to a 27% clip for the game from distance with an 8 of 30 mark (after nailing 5 of their final 10 shots from behind the arc in garbage time). The Thunder only scored nine points for a 13:54 minute stretch in the middle of the game — and that explains Indiana taking a 30-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Indiana is doing a great job of taking away their 3-point opportunities. OKC only took 16 shots from behind the arc in Game Four — and they made just three of those shots. While I was not expecting another 18.8% effort from 3-point land in Game Six, I certainly did not expect Oklahoma City to nail 14 of their 32 shots from behind the arc for a 43.8% clip. Those were the most made 3s for the Thunder in the entire series. They also enjoyed an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.4 which was their highest in the series. But in Game Six, Oklahoma City made only 41.9% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last five games. Even worse, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 90.1 was their worst performance of the season — and their turnover rate of 20.8% of their possessions was the worst of the entire season. The Thunder turned the ball over 21 times which resulted in 19 points for the Pacers — and that is not likely to happen again which will impact Indiana’s scoring opportunities. And while I don’t the Thunder are destined for another season-low offensive effort, I do think the Pacers have done a few things to neutralize their scoring attack. Oklahoma City’s analytics-driven scoring attack that ranked third in the league in the regular season by scoring 119.2 points per 100 adjusted possessions has not been the same in the postseason where they are scoring 114.4 points per 100 adjusted possessions, which would fall to 11th in the NBA if applied to the regular season. Much of this decline comes from their drop in 3-point shooting. After leading the NBA in the regular season by nailing 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc, they rank 13th of the 16 playoff teams with a 34.8% mark from 3-point range. What is also striking is Oklahoma City’s decreased reliance on shooting 3s. After averaging 38.8 shots per game from behind the arc in the regular season, they are taking 34.8 shots per game from 3-point range in the postseason. In this series, they are only taking 27.7 shots per game from distance and trending strongly in the south direction in that category. Credit goes to the Indiana defense which is doing a great job in swarming defenders to push the Thunder away from the 3-point line. After ranking ninth in the NBA in opponent 3-point shot attempts per game, the Pacers rank sixth in the postseason by surrendering only 33.5 shots from behind the arc per game — and they rank fifth in the playoffs with their opponents making only 34.1% of these shots.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has a 222-204 Over mark in the 426 games with Mark Daigneault as their head coach including a 55-48 Over clip this season — but those trends flip in the postseason as they have 19 of their 33 playoff games Under the Total with Daigneault including four of their six postseason games when the series was tied. In Carlsile’s 12 games in the NBA Finals he has coached in his career going back to his championship with the Dallas Mavericks, 8 of those games finished Under the Total. 10* NBA Indiana-Oklahoma City ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (513) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513) in Game Seven of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (82-22) had won two games in a row in this series before their 108-91 upset loss on the road against the Pacers as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Indiana (64-39) forced this climactic seventh game with that triumph.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: How one handicaps this Game Seven largely depends on interpreting what exactly happened in Game Six. Did the plucky and resilient Pacers once again demonstrate how tough and underrated they are while Tyrese Haliburton proved he could still be effective despite his right calf strain? Or did Indiana simply get outlier performances from their role players at home against a flat Thunder team still learning how to win big games? I suspect it is the latter. Oklahoma City made only 41.9% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last five games. Even worse, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 90.1 was their worst performance of the season — and their turnover rate of 20.8% of their possessions was the worst of the entire season. The Thunder turned the ball over 21 times which resulted in 19 points for the Pacers. Frankly, I just don’t think Oklahoma City could handle the moment — and the Haliburton injury may have fed into some complacency before they suddenly got overwhelmed in a hostile environment. But this Thunder team remains a group that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home after suffering an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games at home after losing on the road in their last game. Oklahoma City was in a similar spot in the second round against Denver — and they responded from a double-digit loss on the road in Game Six with a 125-93 blowout victory in that Game Seven. The Thunder have an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +20.7 at home in these playoffs. They are scoring 115.4 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their guests to 43.5% shooting which is resulting in just 107.1 PPG. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games at home including nine of their 12 games in the postseason. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 210s. Furthermore, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 opportunities for revenge including 14 of those 17 games played at home. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when avenging an upset loss including 12 of those 14 games played at home. Haliburton deserves credit for gutting out in Game Six — but he was not his usual self as he scored 14 points on 5 of 12 shooting and only got to the free throw line once in his 22:52 minutes. The blowout allowed head coach Rick Carlisle to keep him off the court — so who knows how his numbers would have ended up in a closer game. This game is being played 72 hours later — but his injury has been described as one that would require seven to days of rest if it was in the regular season. I think it is fair to assume Haliburton will not be close to 100% for Game Seven. Remember, Indiana endured a disastrous start. They missed their first eight shots — and that may have contributed to the Thunder’s complacency. The Pacers eventually went on a 30-9 run to end the second quarter — and then they held Oklahoma City scoreless for the first 6:57 minutes of the third quarter. The Thunder only scored nine points for a 13:54 minute stretch in the middle of the game — and that explains Indiana taking a 30-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Pacers’ bench was outscoring OKC’s reserves by a 31-6 margin before head coach Mark Daigneault waved the white flag. But just as the Thunder’s shooters struggled on the road, so has Indiana — even with Haliburton at full strength in two of those games. The Pacers have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.7 on the road in this series — far below their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.4 during the regular season. They only committed 10 turnovers on Thursday — but they have averaged 20.3 turnovers per game in the three games played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City while turning the ball over in 21.1% of their possessions. Getting fast break opportunities off the fast break unlocks the Thunder offense. Despite shooting 39.4% from behind the arc in the three games on the road in this series, Indiana still has an Adjusted Net Efficiency margin of -8.3 per 100 possessions in those games. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 road games after winning at home in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when playing with two days of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: This will be the 20th time in NBA history when there will be a Game Seven in the Finals. You may hear the stat that only four of those previous 19 games were decided by double-digits. Keep in mind that eight of those NBA Final Game Sevens were played before the merger with the ABA. This will be the fifth Game Seven in the NBA Finals in the last 20 years — and it is only the most recent Game Seven between Cleveland and Golden State in 2016 which took place in the new analytics era of launching 35 or more 3-pointers per game. All six straight-up winners in this series also covered the point spread which continues an incredible NBA Finals trend over the last ten years where straight-up winners also have a 61-3-3 ATS record in those games — meaning winners in the NBA Finals also covered the point spread in that game 91% of the time (and only lost the point spread battle 4.5% of the time). I strongly suspect that dynamic is largely impacted by the emphasis on 3-point shooting which leads to more outlier results from both hot and cold shooting. For this final game, I think the Thunder’s reliance on a system that forces turnovers and shoots plenty of 3s will help them generate enough positive spurts in the game which will help them eventually win comfortably and cover the point spread — especially on their home court. 25* NBA Finals Game Seven *A-List* Special with the Oklahoma City Thunder (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (511) and the Indiana Pacers (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (82-21) took a 3-2 series lead with a 120-109 victory against the Pacers as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Indiana (63-39) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Sixes in the NBA Finals have finished Over the Total in 7 of the last 10 occasions since 2005 — but the Over then drops to 7-5 since 2003. On the other hand, the Under is on a 27-13-1 run in the NBA Finals including an 11-2 streak despite Game Five finishing Over the Total. We were on the wrong end of that one. I was persuaded to expect a lower-scoring game in large part because of the negative trends with the Thunder regarding their 3-point shooting. They only too 16 shots from behind the arc in Game Five — and they made just three of those shots. While I was not expecting another 18.8% effort from 3-point land in Game Six, I certainly did not expect Oklahoma City to nail 14 of their 32 shots from behind the arc for a 43.8% clip. Those were the most made 3s for the Thunder in the entire series. They also enjoyed an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.4 which was their highest in the series. I expect some regression in that category especially on the road where they have only made 13 of their 38 shots from behind the arc in this series for a 34.2% mark. It remains the case for Oklahoma City that their analytics-driven scoring attack that ranked third in the league in the regular season by scoring 119.2 points per 100 adjusted possessions has not been the same in the postseason where they are scoring 115.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions, which would fall to tenth in the NBA if applied to the regular season. Much of this decline comes from their drop in 3-point shooting. After leading the NBA in the regular season by nailing 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc, they rank 13th of the 16 playoff teams with a 34.4% mark from 3-point range. What is also striking is Oklahoma City’s decreased reliance on shooting 3s. After averaging 38.8 shots per game from behind the arc in the regular season, they are taking 35.0 shots per game from 3-point range in the postseason. In this series, they are only taking 28.5 shots per game from distance and trending strongly in the south direction in that category. Credit goes to the Indiana defense which is doing a great job in swarming defenders to push the Thunder away from the 3-point line. After ranking ninth in the NBA in opponent 3-point shot attempts per game, the Pacers rank sixth in the postseason by surrendering only 33.7 shots from behind the arc per game — and they rank sixth in the playoffs with their opponents making only 34.4% of these shots. OKC only generated 109.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions in Games Three and Four on the road in Indiana in this series. They have also played 9 of their 14 playoff games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. For Indiana, the right calf injury to Tyrese Haliburton is potentially devastating. In the regular season, they scored -9.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possession when Haliburton was off the court. In the playoffs, they are scoring -14.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when he is off the court. On defense, the Pacers surrendered -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in the regular season. In the playoffs, that flips slightly with them giving up +0.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when he is off the court. If Haliburton plays but is limited, his loss of effectiveness will probably hurt his offensive performance more than his ability to still play solid defense. He is their leading scorer — and don’t underestimate his 9.2 Assists-Per-Game average. Indiana has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference.

FINAL TAKE: I am not smart enough to guess as to how head coach Rick Carlisle will respond to the challenge of playing this game with best player far from 100%. I suspect his game management will strive to somehow keep this game competitive so they can perhaps steal the game late in front of their home crowd — and emphasizing defense seems integral to that strategy. In the 11 games he has coached in his NBA career going back to his championship with the Dallas Mavericks, 7 of those games finished Under the Total. 8* NBA Oklahoma City-Indiana ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (511) and the Indiana Pacers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (509) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (63-38) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 111-104 loss to the Thunder as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Oklahoma City (81-210 evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana only made 42.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Pacers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when playing for the second time in five days including seven of those 11 games played on the road. Indiana should keep being very competitive in this crucial fifth game of this series since they have been reliable road warriors all season. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the postseason. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games on the road as an underdog. Oklahoma City played their best game on defense in their last five contests. The Thunder remain nearly double-digit favorites tonight because of their season-long efficiency numbers — but I suspect those numbers are overvalued when they are playing on their home court. After leading the NBA in the regular season by nailing 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc, they rank 13th of the 16 playoff teams with a 34.0% mark from 3-point range. No one embodies this step back in production more for the Thunder than Chet Holmgren who may be playing through an injury at this point of the season. After shooting 49.0% from the field with a 37.9% clip from behind the arc in the regular season, he is only making 30.1% of his 3s in the postseason. In this series, Holmgren is hitting only 40.9% of his shots and has made only 1 of his 11 attempts from distance. What is also striking is Oklahoma City’s decreased reliance on shooting 3s. After averaging 38.8 shots per game from behind the arc in the regular season, they are taking 35.2 shots per game from 3-point range in the postseason. In this series, they are only taking 26.6 shots per game from distance and trending strongly in the south direction in that category. After taking 30 and 36 shots from behind the arc in Games One and Two, they only took 22 shots from 3-point land in Game Three before bottoming out with a 3 of 16 performance on Friday. Credit goes to the Indiana defense which is doing a great job in swarming defenders to push the Thunder away from the 3-point line. After ranking ninth in the NBA in opponent 3-point shot attempts per game, the Pacers rank sixth in the postseason by surrendering only 33.8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they rank fifth in the playoffs with their opponents making only 33.9% of these shots. Oklahoma City pulled out Game Four by outscoring Indiana by +14 points in the paint. They also got to the line 38 times and converted on 34 of those shots — led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who made all ten of his free throw attempts. The Thunder got some friendly whistles in Game Four — and that is not likely to play out the same in Game Five. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 playoff games under head coach Mark Daigneault when the series was tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 opportunities to avenge a loss at home including seven of those eight games played on the road. 8* NBA Indiana-Oklahoma City ABC-TV Special with the Indiana Pacers (509) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (509) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (63-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 111-104 loss at home to the Thunder as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Oklahoma City (81-21) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This has been a lower-scoring series than expected — and I think the books and/or the market continue to be too slow to react. Granted, Game One of this series saw the Total in the 231-point range — but that was largely based on regular season numbers that do not seem nearly as applicable now in June, especially in a Game Five of a championship series that is tied at two games apiece. Three of the four games in this series have finished Under the Total with the only Over resulting from 230 combined points. The other three games of this series have seen 221, 223, and 215 combined points scored — all below the number set for Game Five. For Oklahoma City, the analytics-driven scoring attack that ranked third in the league in the regular season by scoring 119.2 points per 100 adjusted possessions has not been the same in the postseason where they are scoring 115.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions, which would fall to tenth in the NBA if applied to the regular season. Much of this decline comes from their drop in 3-point shooting. After leading the NBA in the regular season by nailing 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc, they rank 13th of the 16 playoff teams with a 34.0% mark from 3-point range. No one embodies this step back in production more for the Thunder than Chet Holmgren who may be playing through an injury at this point of the season. After shooting 49.0% from the field with a 37.9% clip from behind the arc in the regular season, he is only making 30.1% of his 3s in the postseason. In this series, Holmgren is hitting only 40.9% of his shots and has made only 1 of his 11 attempts from distance. What is also striking is Oklahoma City’s decreased reliance on shooting 3s. After averaging 38.8 shots per game from behind the arc in the regular season, they are taking 35.2 shots per game from 3-point range in the postseason. In this series, they are only taking 26.6 shots per game from distance and trending strongly in the south direction in that category. After taking 30 and 36 shots from behind the arc in Games One and Two, they only took 22 shots from 3-point land in Game Three before bottoming out with a 3 of 16 performance on Friday. Credit goes to the Indiana defense which is doing a great job in swarming defenders to push the Thunder away from the 3-point line. After ranking ninth in the NBA in opponent 3-point shot attempts per game, the Pacers rank sixth in the postseason by surrendering only 33.8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they rank fifth in the playoffs with their opponents making only 33.9% of these shots. Oklahoma City pulled out Game Four by outscoring Indiana by +14 points in the paint. They also got to the line 38 times and converted on 34 of those shots — led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who made all ten of his free throw attempts. The Thunder got some friendly whistles in Game Four — and that is not likely to play out the same in Game Five. It is telling that OKC has generated only 109.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions in the last two games of this series. What should continue is the Thunder’s outstanding play on the other end of the court. After leading the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.6, they have been even better in the postseason with a 105.7 mark. They have held their playoff opponents to 43.5% shooting which has resulted in just 107.0 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Mark Daigneault’s fourth quarter adjustment on Friday was to shift Lu Dortz on to the primary Indiana ball-handler — and that helped to limit the Pacers to just 17 points in the final 12 minutes. Oklahoma City has played 23 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 18 of their 31 playoff games Under the Total since Daigneault took over — and they have played 4 of those 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series was tied. Indiana has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Another reason that the Thunder’s scoring is down is because the Pacers are not giving them as many fast break scoring opportunities in transition off of turnovers where OKC thrives. After turning the ball over 24 times in Game One, Indiana has just 15, 13, and 15 turnovers in the last three games. Head coach Rick Carlisle has done a fantastic job in forcing the Thunder into being a half-court offense that is not shooting 3s. Maybe Oklahoma City can still win the championship with that approach and win two more games like they won Game Four — but that is not the formula for games to see 220 or more combined points. Granted, Carlisle will want his team to continue to push the pace to wear out what is becoming a shorter Thunder rotation. But Indiana only scored 109 PPG in the first two games of this series at Oklahoma City which is more than six points below their 115.1 PPG scoring average in the postseason. Role players tend to not shoot as well in hostile environments — especially in the playoffs — so getting another 27-point effort from Benjamin Mathurin as he did in Game Three at home or even Obi Toppin’s 17 points in Game Four at home is probably not in the cards to help out Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.

FINAL TAKE: In Carlisle’s head coaching career, his teams have played 16 of their 24 Game Fives of a playoff series Under the Total — including all three games with Indiana when playing on the road. Carlisle’s teams have also played 19 of their 32 playoff games Under the Total when the series was tied — and his teams have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total in the NBA Finals. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (509) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (508) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (507) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (80-21) has lost two of their last three games in this series after their 116-107 upset loss as a 5.5-point road favorite on Wednesday. Indiana (63-37) has won three of their last four games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City let up on the defensive end of the court by allowing the Pacers to shoot 51.8% from the field. Not only was that their worst defensive effort in their last five contests, it was the second-worst defensive performance in their last 23 contests. The Thunder are still holding their opponents in the postseason to 43.5% shooting which has resulted in 107.2 Points-Per-Game. They lead all playoff teams with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.7 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions this postseason. Oklahoma City has been the best team in the NBA in forcing turnovers — but they only forced 13 turnovers in Game Three which is -4.0 below the 17 forced turnovers they have averaged in the playoffs. The Thunder should bounce back in Game Four to even this series as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 opportunities to avenge a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road including six of those nine games that that played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road. I am wary that Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in all eight of their playoff games on the road. They do have victories on the road in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs — I suspect the point spread issues relate to their historic regular season numbers producing unrealistic point spreads under the pressure of the postseason. The Thunder has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 11 of those 17 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. Indiana enjoyed their best shooting effort in this series and tied for their second-best shooting performance in their last 10 games by making 51.8% of their shots. They got an outstanding game from Benjamin Mathurin who scored 27 points off the bench while nailing 9 of his 12 shots including two of his three from behind the arc. Mathurin has a 46.7% field goal percentage and a 33.7% mark from 3-point range so expecting a similar effort in Game Four may be overly ambitious. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: I have had Game Four circled to face Indiana — and the mentioned circumstances above support that notion. Even after the Pacers' upset victory in Game Three, home underdogs in the NBA Finals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those last 10 circumstances. Indiana was originally the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference bracket — and four seeds or worse in the NBA Finals coming off a straight-up in this series have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those last 7 circumstances (and losing six of those seven games straight-up). Lastly, the home team in Game Four of the NBA Finals has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of the last 11 seasons (and these home teams have lost eight of those 11 NBA Finals Game Fours) — and if this home team comes off a win in Game Three of the NBA Finals, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those last 5 games with three of the four straight-up loss being by double-digits. 25* National Basketball Association Game of the Year with the Oklahoma City Thunder (508) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (504) minus the points Indiana Pacers (503) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (79-20) had won two games in a row before their 111-110 upset loss at home to the Pacers as a 10-point underdog in the opening game of this series on Thursday. Indiana (62-36) has won seven of their last nine games after that triumph.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City had a 15-point lead with under 10 minutes to go — so it looked like we were cruising. But the Pacers have demonstrated that they should never be counted out. They were down nine points with under three minutes left before rallying to steal the victory. They had two victories earlier this season when they were trailing by seven points with less than a minute left in the game before somehow pulling the game. In the history of the NBA playoffs, teams trailing by seven or more points with less than a minute to go have a 3-1640 record — and two of those three wins were by Indiana this season. The Thunder have also demonstrated their style of play leaves them vulnerable to blow leads — so I do not make this endorsement lightly. But there are some areas where Oklahoma City should put up better numbers tonight. They only made 39.8% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Jalen Williams only hit 6 of his 19 shots from the field. Chet Holmgren was 2 of 9. The Thunder got out-rebounded by a 56-39 margin which suggests they were simply out-worked and out-hustled. Furthermore, while they forced 24 turnovers, they only scored 11 points off those Indiana mistakes. In their 11 opportunities to push for an offensive advantage off a forced turnover, they only scored at a 0.64 Points-Per-Possession rate. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 49 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games when laying 10 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 12 of those 15 games at home. Indiana played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Thunder to under 40% shooting. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a narrow win by six points or less in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after winning their last game by six points or less. The underdog has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 games between these two teams.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 opportunities for revenge including 13 of those 16 games played at home. 10* NBA Indiana-Oklahoma City ABC-TV Special with Oklahoma City Thunder (504) minus the points Indiana Pacers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (502) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (79-19) has won five of their last six contests after their 124-94 victory at home against Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite to close out that series in five games on May 28th. Indiana (61-36) has won six of their last eight games after their 125-108 win against New York as a 4-point favorite to win that series in six games on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: I think the Pacers are a bit underrated — and I am not going to be surprised if they are very competitive in this series. But Game Ones in the NBA Finals has been a tough spot for road teams recently. Home (or neutral court for the 2020 bubble) favorites in Game One of the NBA Finals have covered the point spread in 17 of the last 20 games since 2005 — and favorites laying more than five or more points have covered the point spread in 11 of these last 12 Game Ones in the NBA Finals. The Thunder have been dominant this season. They are just the fourth team in NBA history to begin the NBA Finals with at least 80 wins — and they are just the fourth team in the history of the NBA to have an average winning margin of +12.0 or more Points-Per-Game — and their average winning margin of +12.9 PPG is the highest in NBA history. Oklahoma City’s 3-point shooting proficiency along with their fast pace buoyed by the high turnover rate on defense tends to generate blowouts. In their nine games at home in the postseason, they have covered the point spread 7 times with an average winning margin of +24.5 PPG. Only Denver upset them on their home court — and the Thunder’s closest victory at home was a seven-point win against them in Game Five of that series. All their other seven wins at home were by at least 15 points in these playoffs. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games at home after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 12 of those 14 games played at home. Indiana enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 12 games by making 54.1% of their shots from the field to close out their series with the Knicks. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games after a straight-up win at home. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City holds their opponents to 107.3 PPG — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams who do not allow more than 108 PPG. The Pacers score 117.4 PPG — but the Thunder have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Thursday Television Game of the Year with the Oklahoma City Thunder (502) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: New York (61-38) has won two of the last three games in this series after their 111-94 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Indiana (60-36) still leads this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Knicks’ head coach Tom Thibodeau initially thought it would be a good idea to embrace the Pacers' fast pace and run up-and-down the court with them in this series. They lost Game One in overtime by a 138-135 score. But after dropping the first two games at home in this series, Thibodeau has finally come around to the notion that he needs the Knicks cannot simply try to outscore Indiana to win this series but that his team will have to do some things on defense. He expanded his rotation by getting Delon Wright and Landry Shamet into the mix — they both have played at least 20 combined minutes in the last three contests after neither played in Game Two and Wright was on the court for just 26 seconds in Game One. Wright and Shamet are both solid contributors on the defensive end of the floor who do not offer much offensively. But Thibodeau needs them out there to not exhaust his top-seven man rotation — and he is desperate for defensive help with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns on the court together since they were getting torched with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 150.0 when playing together in the first two games of this series. Thibodeau also inserted Mitchell Robinson in the starting lineup for Josh Hart in Game Three to switch the rotations up to get more defense on the court when Brunson and Towns are playing together. The defensive adjustments continued in Game Five with the Knicks (finally) picking up on Tyrese Haliburton closer to half court to offer more harassment against him and coax him to pass the rock. Haliburton only took seven shots on Thursday with just two of them coming from behind the arc. New York is also more aggressively defending Haliburton after made shots on the offensive end of the court to stop Indiana from responding quickly by pushing the ball up the court. The Knicks held the Pacers to 40.5% shooting and just a 33.3% mark from behind the arc as they continue to find schematic answers for what Indiana wants to do with the ball in their hands. And Thibodeau seems to appreciate that a slower pace better serves his team’s interests. New York has held Indiana to 100 and 94 points in two of the last three games in this series — and two of the last three games have seen just 205 and 206 combined points scored. The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 games in this series. Thibodeau’s teams have played 8 of their 13 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series including three of the four games as head coach of the Knicks. New York made 49.4% of their shots on Thursday which was their best shooting effort since Game One of this series. But don’t underestimate this Pacers defense that ranked ninth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since January 1st through the end of the regular season. Haliburton should play better after his off-night. But Aaron Nesmith playing through an ankle injury may continue to be limited offensively after missing seven of his eighth shots from the field in Game Five. Indiana has played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when playing a team winning 60-70% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: In the last 57 games in the NBA Conference Finals with the Total set at 216.5 or higher, 34 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (552) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (551) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: New York (60-38) has lost three of their last four games after their 130-121 loss on the road against the Pacers as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Indiana (60-35) has won five of their last six games and can close out this series tonight given their 3-1 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pacers have only lost three games in the postseason after posting the fourth-best record in the NBA since January 1st — but the books still give more credit to New York playing at home than when Indiana is the home team. Taking a step back to take the macro view of things, this would be a 2-2 series if the Knicks had not suffered that epic loss in Game One when they blew a 14-point lead with two minutes left. And if there is one definitive thing to declare about this New York team, it is that they have heart and never give up. They have overcome multiple double-digit deficits throughout the postseason. Having lost both games at home in Games One and Two in this series, I suspect they play their best game of the series (and perhaps the postseason) tonight in this potential elimination game in front of their home fans. My hunch is supported by history. The last 20 favorites in Game Five of the Eastern or Western Conference finals have covered the point spread in that game 15 times. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. New York did get to the line 38 times on Tuesday and made 33 of those shots. Don’t be surprised if the officials have a friendly whistle for the home team tonight (especially with the Western Conference already settled). New York did win two of their three games at home against Madison Garden against Boston who were the top seed in the Eastern Conference — and they ended that series on their home court with a decisive 119-81 victory. Karl-Anthony Towns is a game-time decision with the knee injury he tweaked late in Game Four — but he still played after that mishap and I suspect he will do everything possible to play. Indiana got a near-perfect game from Tyrese Haliburton on Tuesday as he scored 32 points in 38 minutes while adding 15 assists, 12 rebounds, and four steals — all without committing a turnover. It is too much to expect he can replicate those numbers. The Pacers may be due for an emotional letdown up 3-1 in the series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 33 games after a straight-up win at home including 10 of those 16 games then played on the road. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their Game Fives in a playoff series under head coach Rick Carlisle.

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers were the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs — and teams seeded no higher than the third seed in their conference are just 11-22-1 ATS in the Conference Finals following a win in that series. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (552) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (550) in Game Five of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (78-19) has won four of their last five games after their 128-126 victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (58-38) trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder nailed 50.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. They also made 16 of their 37 (43%) shots from behind the arc. Oklahoma City has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less including seven of those 10 games this season. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Northwest Division rival including five of those six games played at home. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last 16 contests by allowing the Thunder to make 50.5% of their shots. These two teams have played the last three games in this series Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row including seven of those nine games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row including four of those five games this season. Minnesota shot 57.3% and 51.2% in their two games at home in this series — and they nailed 18 of their 41 shots (44%) from behind the arc in Game Four. But on the road in Game One and Two of this series, the Timberwolves only made 34.9% and 41.4% of their shots from the field. The Thunder should certainly play better on defense back at home where they are holding their opponents to 43.4% shooting including a 34.2% clip from behind the arc which has resulted in just 106.3 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their 7 road games in the postseason Under the Total. They have also played 9 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination, they have played 3 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge including nine of those 14 games this season. After three straight Overs in this series and a Game Four when both teams shot 50% or better from the field and 40% or better from behind the arc, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA  Conference Finals Total of the Year with  Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (548) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (547) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (59-35) had won four games in a row before their 106-100 upset loss at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (60-37) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Knicks in Game Three — and we were probably fortunate to cash that ticket. That’s OK, we caught a few bad breaks last night by losing with Oklahoma City — hopefully, these things will even out in the wash. New York got into foul trouble with both Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride spending much of the time on the bench. This forced head coach Tom Thibodeau to stretch out his rotation with both Delon Wright and Landry Shamet getting extended minutes — and that actually helped fuel their second-half comeback after trailing by as much as 20 points. Thibodeau’s big adjustment for Game Three was inserting Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup for Josh Hart — but the foul issues negated that plan. Hart ended up playing 34:02 minutes — and the Knicks outscored the Pacers by +9 nine points when he was on the court. The comeback victory was crucial to keep this series alive — but now Thibodeau has more questions than answers for Game Four. The initial big lineup of Robinson with Karl-Anthony Towns did not really work as the Pacers used tempo to expose them defensively. Towns and Brunson on the court together have been a near catastrophe defensively. It’s tough to play Hart less after his Game Three performance. And does  Thibs continue with the deeper bench rotation? As it is, the Knicks are not likely to benefit from their 27 of 30 shooting performance from the charity stripe. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. Indiana’s Aaron Nesmith is a game-time decision after he injured his right ankle in the second half on Sunday in yet another bad break that went the Knicks way in that game. He returned later in the game but was not as effective. The uncertainty regarding his playing status keeps me from upgrading this Pacers' play since he has been the primary defender on Brunson. If he is out, look for Ben Sheppard getting more minutes as he will take more of the defensive responsibility against Brunson. But let’s not overthink this too much: Indiana was controlling this game with a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and about to make it a 3-0 series before playing a sloppy and unfocused fourth quarter to let the Knicks back in the series. Their 44.2% shooting percentage was the worst effort in their last five games — and they made only 5 of their 25 shots (20%) from behind the arc. They also committed eight turnovers in the second half despite ranking second in the playoffs by turning the ball over just 12.3% of the time. Indiana should play much better tonight even without Nesmith — they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss at home including all 11 of those contests that were once again played at home. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after an upset loss at home including all five of those games played at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after an upset loss in their last game. The Pacers nailed 37.9% of their 3-pointers at home in the regular season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored by no more than six points. Indiana has a 4-1 straight-up record in Game Fours under head coach Rick Carlisle — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA New York-Indiana TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (548) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (546) in Game Four of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (77-19) had won three games in a row before their 143-101 upset loss on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Minnesota (58-37) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to tie this best-of-seven series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: After winning the first two games in this series by 26 and 15 points. The Thunder were perhaps due for a clunker — their 40.7% field goal percentage was their worst shooting effort in their last six contests. And by allowing the Timberwolves to make 57.3% of their shots, Oklahoma City played their worst game on defense in their last 31 contests. Such is the world of 3-point shooting variance. Minnesota nailed 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc while Thunder only hit 14 of their 44 shots from 3-point land for a 32% clip. Furthermore, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only got to the free throw line four times on Saturday after getting to the charity stripe 15 and 14 times in the previous two games in this series. The Thunder should play much better tonight while getting more whistles. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss against Northwest Division rivals. The Thunder have the second-best Net Adjusted Efficiency of +10.6 in the postseason — and that mark is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs since Cleveland got eliminated last round. Oklahoma City also leads all playoff teams with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. They do have disparate home/road splits in the postseason — but I suspect that has more to do with getting by the Nuggets in seven games after some early jitters in the opening round than it does a systemic problem with this team playing away from home. Defense and forcing turnovers travels — and the Thunder led the NBA in the regular season with an Adjusted Net Efficiency mark of +10.5 on the road. They also beat the Nuggets on the road in Game Four last round by a 92-87 score to even that series at 2-2. The  Thunder have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 210s. Minnesota nailed 57.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games — and they generated a monstrous Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 141.6. The T-Wolves ranked eighth in the league in the regular season with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.7 — and they have dropped to 114.4 in that metric in the playoffs even after that dramatic outlier effort. They only committed 10 turnovers in that game which was their fewest in their last nine contests. Those were the fewest forced turnovers in the Thunder’s last 28 games. Anthony Edwards stepped up to play his best game in this series by scoring 30 points on 12 of 17 shooting including a 5 of 7 mark from behind the arc. Heck, we were on Minnesota in Game Three — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after an upset victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home against a fellow Northwest Division rival including all five of those games at home. The Timberwolves return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year with the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (543) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (544) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: New York (59-37) has lost three of their last four games after their 114-109 upset loss on the road against the Pacers as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. Indiana (59-34) has won four games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has been competitive in this series. They were up 14 points with just two minutes left in Game One before their epic collapse — and they were tied heading into the fourth quarter in Game Two. Now coming off two straight upset losses, look for the Knicks to play their most complete game in this series. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss including seven of those 11 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games after a loss on their home court. Additionally, the Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a loss by six points or less. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has some options in front of him moving forward. First, he should drop Cameron Payne from the rotation after he played only nine minutes on Friday but they still got outscored by nine points when he was on the court. He is simply too much of a liability. Secondly, it looks like Mitchell Robinson will be inserted into the starting lineup for Josh Hart to give his team more defense. New York goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 postseason games this year. Indiana has pulled off four straight upset wins in these playoffs — so an emotional letdown may be looming. As it is, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a win by six points or less including 10 of those 12 games now played at home. Pascal Siakam enjoyed an outlier performance in Game Two by scoring 39 points on 15 of 23 shooting. He scored only 17 points on 7 of  16 shooting in Game One which is more likely what we will see tonight. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Game Threes in the playoffs. Furthermore, head coach Rick Carlisle’s teams in his head coaching career have lost 19 of the 28 Game Threes he has coached.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (543) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (542) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (541) in Game Three of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (57-37) has lost the first two games of this series after their 118-103 loss on the road against the Thunder as an 8-point underdog on Thursday. Oklahoma City (77-18) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been competitive in the first half in both games in this series before getting blitzed by the Thunder in the third quarter which put the game away. The Timberwolves' 3-point shooting has been under par as well -- they are shooting just 29% from behind the arc in this series after making just 15 of their 51 shots from downtown in Game One before making 11 of their 39 shots from distance in Game Two. Anthony Edwards is only hitting 23.5% of his 3s in this series and Naz Reid has missed all 14 of his 3-pointers. That should change with this team home — and the role players should play better taking a little bit of the pressure off of everyone. Reid shot 40.9% from behind the arc at home during the regular season. Head coach Chris Finch has some moves to make. The T-Wolves were +14 with Mike Conley on the court — and that followed up them being +5 with him on the court in Game One. Finch needs Rudy Gobert’s rim protection as well — they are only -11 in the first two games of this series with Gobert on the court with everyone else drowning in that metric so far in this series. Minnesota remains a very good team that reached the Western Conference finals last season and had only lost two games in the postseason coming into this series. They closed out the regular season on a 17-4 run since March which was the second-best record in the Western Conference to the Thunder — and they split their two games against Oklahoma City in the regular season. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss on the road including six of those nine games played at home. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 postseason games at home this year — and they have covered the points spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams winning 70% of their games. The whistles should change a bit in Game Three for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got to their free throw line 15 times on Thursday after attempting 14 free throws in Game One. In his previous 11 games, he only had 10 or more free throw attempts four times. After playing their last three games at home, Oklahoma City goes back on the road for the first time since May 15th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games after playing three or more games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games on the road in the postseason. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total in the 210s. And in their last 25 road games against teams with a winning record, the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of those games. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 Game Threes in the postseason under head coach Mark Daigneault. Favorites in the series are just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road including eight of those 11 games played on their home court. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Minnesota Timberwolves (542) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (539) and the New York Knicks (540) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (58-34) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 138-135 overtime upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (59-36) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Indiana wants to push the pace — not only is that who they are but an edge they have in this series is their bench depth against a Knicks team that usually has only a seven-man rotation. New York obliged as the score was flying Over the 225 or so total for Game One even before the wild finish and then overtime. The game went into overtime after a 125-125 score after regulation. The Knicks looked gassed in the waning moments of the fourth quarter — they blew a 14-point lead with just two minutes left. The Pacers ranked seventh in the regular season in pace of play. They scored 125 points in regulation despite Tyrese Haliburton missing three of his five open shots from behind the arc (when the closest defender was four to six feet away from him) and four of his six wide-open shots from behind the arc (when the closest defender was six feet or farther away from him). He only converted on 4 of his 12 shots from downtown despite 11 of those 12 shots being deemed open or wide-open. Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring 136 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. Additionally, Indiana has played 7 of their 10 games in the playoffs this year Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series. They have also played 5 straight Game Twos Over the Total under head coach Rick Carlisle. It’s a head-scratcher why New York head coach Tom Thibodeau thought it was a good idea to try to beat the Pacers at their own game by engaging at the blistering pace in Game One. You would think he would want to slow things down now — but handicapping how a head coach will react can be a Fool’s errand. He does want his team to attack in transition. And slowing down this Pacers team is easier said than done. The Knicks are still going to get to the free throw line after making 28 of their 40 shots from the charity stripe on Wednesday. Jalen Brunson got to the line 14 times himself — and his ability to draw fouls and score points when the clock is not ticking will continue. So too will continue Karl-Anthony Towns taking advantage of Myles Turner. Towns scored 35 points on 11 of 17 shooting with 10 of those points coming against Turner on 5 of 6 shooting. Turner has a long history of failing to slow down KAT. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 136 or more points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have played 8 of their last 13 games at home in the playoffs Over the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against each other. 10* NBA Indiana-New York TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (539) and the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (527) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (528) in Game One of their Western Conference finals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (57-35) has won four games in a row after their 121-110 victory against Golden State as a 9.5-point favorite to close out that series in five games last Wednesday. Oklahoma City (75-18) has won three of their last four games after their 125-93 win against Denver in the seventh game of that series as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Since December 7th, the Timberwolves have been one of the best offensive teams in the league by generating 117.9 points per 100 possessions. They come into this game with fresh legs after nailing 62.8% of their shots to overwhelm the Warriors to end that series. Now they travel to Oklahoma City where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Additionally, Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games including four of those five games played on the road. And while the Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 Points-Per-Game, the Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. Minnesota will not be intimidated by the moment after facing Dallas in the Western Conference finals last season — and 4 of those 5 games finished Over the Total. Oklahoma City has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home after winning at home by 20 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Thunder have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days (their series with Denver began on May 5th). They have also played 16 off their 21 home games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days (and there were two days between Game Six and Game Seven against the Nuggets). The Thunder are a great defensive team — but they play at a fast pace fueled by their desire to get out in transition where they are scoring 27.2 Points-Per-Game in this postseason. They are also leading all teams in the playoffs by forcing turnovers in 17.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and the T-Wolves are vulnerable in this department as they rank 13th of all 16 playoff teams by turning the ball over in 15.8% of their possessions. Oklahoma City ranks third in the playoffs by scoring 117.0 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder have played 18 of their last 24 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when facing a team that is winning 60-70% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with Minnesota upsetting Oklahoma City in their building the last time they played on February 24th by a 131-128 score as an 11.5-point underdog. The Thunder have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Minnesota-Oklahoma City ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (527) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the New York Knicks (510) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-25) has won two of their last three games after their 127-102 victory at home as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. New York (58-35) can still close out this series tonight with their 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Without Jayson Tatum who is out a year after suffering an Achilles injury in Game Four, the Celtics made 52.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also converted on 22 of their 49 shots (45%) shots from behind the arc. But Boston has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Atlantic Division rival at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a victory against a division opponent. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total in the postseason. They are scoring 108.2 Points-Per-Game in these playoffs which is -7.2 fewer PPG below their season average. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when trailing in the series. New York played their worst defensive game in their last 13 contests by allowing the Celtics to make 52.4% of their shots. The Knicks have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss of 20 or more points including five of those eight games played on the road. 10* NBA Boston-New York ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the New York Knicks (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508) in Game Six of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (74-17) has won three of their last four games after their 112-105 win at home against the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver (56-37) looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-2 in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder lead the NBA in the regular season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.6 — and they have been even better in the postseason with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.1. They are holding their playoff opponents to 40.8% shooting which has resulted in just 103.6 Points-Per-Game. But Oklahoma City is scoring -4.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in the postseason — and that still accounts for two outlier performances when they scored 131 points in their opening game against Memphis last round and Game Two in this series against Denver when they scored 149 points. Like with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics, these 3-point-reliant teams are seeing their efficiency from behind the arc decline in the postseason. While the Thunder made 36.7% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, they are only making 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a win against a fellow Northwest Division opponent. Furthermore, the Thunder have played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by six points or less. And in their last 10 road games against teams winning 60-70% of their games, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. The Nuggets played their worst defensive game in the last three games in this series by allowing Oklahoma City to make 50% of their shots. After shooting 50% from the field in the regular season, Denver is making only 45.2% of their shots in the playoffs which is resulting in 107.4 PPG which is -11.8 PPG below their average in the regular season. But they are also surrendering -5.1 PPG in the postseason while playing at a slower pace. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to a divisional rival. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams winning 70% or more of their games. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total in the postseason — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games in the second round of the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 12 of their last 18 playoff games Under the Total including seven of those nine games played on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in the second round of the playoffs. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504) in Game Five of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (54-40) has lost three games in a row after their 117-110 loss at home against Minnesota as a 5-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (56-35) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State needs to win this game to extend this series to a sixth game when they expect Stephen Curry to return from his hamstring. And to compound matters, Jimmy Butler is reportedly under the weather. But we bet numbers rather than simply teams — and the Timberwolves are simply laying too many points against this veteran Warriors team that will continue to play hard. Golden State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two or more games in a row including six of those nine games played on the road. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games as an underdog. And while Minnesota is outscoring their opponents by +5.5 Points-Per-Game, Golden State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 13 of their 21 games when trailing in a playoff series — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games when trailing in the playoff series. Minnesota’s scoring is down in the playoffs as they are only making 44.9% of their shots resulting in 106.8 PPG which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games after a straight-up win on the road. Minnesota does not have an overwhelming home-court advantage. They are just 21-24 ATS in their 45 games at home this season — and they have a 5-7 ATS mark at home against teams who are winning 51-60% of their games. Additionally, the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 38 road games when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is with the Golden State Warriors (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578) in Game Four of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (55-35) has won five of their last six games after their 102-97 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Golden State (54-39) has lost the last two games of this series to fall behind by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota continues to play outstanding defense in the postseason as they held the Warriors to just 43.2% shooting on Saturday. They are holding their opponents to the playoffs to just 43.3% shooting which is resulting in 98.9 Points-Per-Game. After ranking sixth in the NBA in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they are third in that metric in the postseason while surrendering -4.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. But the Timberwolves are making only 44.3% of their shots in the playoffs which is resulting in only 105.5 PPG. Minnesota has played all 4 of their games in the postseason Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days (Minnesota closed out their first-round series with the Lakers on April 30th). Golden State only managed 97 points despite getting 33 points from Jimmy Butler and a surprising 30 points from Jonathan Kuminga. Frankly, they were not a dynamic scoring team even with Stephen Curry leading the way. In their two games since his hamstring injury in Game One, the Warriors have posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 100.0. For comparison's sake, Washington was last in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that number was 105.8. With Butler on the court in this series, they are registering an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 104.7 — below the Wizards in the regular season. The loss of Curry is devastating — the Warriors had an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 105.0 in the regular season when he was off the court which was -13.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when he was on the court. But on the other hand, Golden State had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.1 in the regular season when Curry was off the court which was -7.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when he was on the court. In their last five games in the playoffs, the Warriors are holding their opponents to 43.9% shooting which is resulting in 102.2 PPG. But they are only making 43.0% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 99.8 PPG. Golden State has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game including seven of those 11 games played at home. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: In the 19 playoff games under head coach Steve Kerr when Golden State was trailing in the series, they have played 13 of those games Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (572) in Game Four of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (73-17) has lost two of the first three games in this series after their 113-104 upset loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Denver (56-36) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: One of the popular takeaways from Game Three of this series was that the Nuggets pulled out that game despite Nikola Jokic only scoring 20 points on 8 of 25 shooting which included him missing all ten of his shots from behind the arc. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only scored 18 points on 7 of 23 shooting while missing five of his six shots from 3-point range. So while Jokic should play better, so too should SGA in Game Four. Oklahoma City only made 38.5% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 48 games and tied for the worst offensive performance in their last 63 contests. They only made 9 of their 35 shots (25.7%) from behind the arc. Expect the Thunder to get back to approaching or surpassing their 37.4% shooting clip from behind the arc and the 14.5 made 3s they average per game. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a fellow Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. On the road, they have covered 25 of their 43 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their 40 games on the road when favored. The Thunder are outscoring their playoff opponents by +15.7 net Points-Per-Game because their stifling defense that is limiting their opponents to 42.0% shooting which is resulting in 106.0 PPG. Denver is making only 46.5% of their shots in the postseason which is far below their 50.2% season average. Their 109.4 PPG scoring average is -11.1 net PPG below their regular season average. While Jokic had an off-game, the Nuggets were picked up by Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson who combined to nail 13 of their 21 shots (61.9%) from behind the arc. Their 45.9% shooting clip in Game Three was their best offensive effort of the series. And by holding Oklahoma City to 38.5% shooting, they played their best game on defense in their last 17 contests. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating a fellow Northwest Division rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after a win against a divisional rival at home in their last game. They are getting outscored in playoffs by -3.6 PG due to their continuing shaky defense that is allowing their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots resulting in 113.0 PPG. The Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG this season — and the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. And while Oklahoma City is scoring 120.2 PPG this season, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 postseason games when leading in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 opportunities for revenge -- and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year is with the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570) in Game Three of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (54-35) has won four of their last five games after their 117-93 victory at home against the Warriors in Game Two of this series on Thursday. Golden State (54-38) had won two games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves shot 50.6% from the field on Thursday which was their best shooting effort in their last six contests. But their half-court offense can bog down — they are only making 44.4% of their shots in the postseason which is resulting in just 106.0 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points including four of those five games played on the road. Golden State’s offense was ineffective without Stephen Curry in Game Two as they only made 44.7% of their shots. Jimmy Butler does not look 100% due to the pelvic injury he suffered last round — he only scored 18 points. But the Warriors should play better defense back at home as the 50.6% shooting clip for the T-Wolves was their worst defensive effort in their last four contests. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 13 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. 10* NBA Minnesota-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (567) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (568) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-24) has lost the first two games of this best-of-seven series after their 91-90 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite against the Knicks on Wednesday. New York (57-33) has won three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston once again could not hit the side of a barn with the basketball. After their disastrous Game One effort when they made only 15 of their 60 shots from behind the arc en route to a season-low 35.1% field goal percentage, they barely improved on Wednesday with a 36.2%$ shooting percentage — although they once again only made 25% of their 3-pointers by making just 10 of 40 those shots (25%). What’s going on? For starters, no team is more reliant on converting 3s than the Celtics — and that leads to more variance. And they already climbed the mountain to win the NBA title last year, so some good ole complacency from the reigning NBA champs. Kristaps Porzingis not being 100% has not helped matters either. After playing less than 13 minutes in Game One because of an in-game illness, he was only on the court for less than 14 minutes on Wednesday. With another 72 hours of fluids and recovery, he should be able to play full-time minutes in this must-win game. Boston is bringing it on the defensive end of the court. The Knicks only made 43.0% of their shots in Game Two which was still the worst defensive effort in their last three contests. Now after digging this big hole, the reigning champions should step on the road where they have played well all season. They are outscoring their home hosts by +9.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Celtics have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 20 games after suffering an upset loss including all eight of those games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss at home including all five of those games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by six points or less including all five of those games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. New York has now pulled off three straight upset victories after closing out their opening-round series with the Pistons with an upset victory at Detroit in Game Six. An emotional letdown may be looming. As it is, the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory against a fellow Atlantic Division rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional opponent including nine of those 12 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after a win by six points or less. It’s not like New York is dominating this series. Both of their wins have been by four combined points with Game One going to overtime. They are only shooting 42.7% from the field in this series after following up their 37 of 88 effort in Game One with a 37 of 87 mark in Game Two. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog including all three of those games this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including both of those games this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games including four of those five games at home at Madison Square Garden.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 opportunities to avenge a loss including eight of those 11 games played on the road. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (567) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (563) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (68-20) has lost the first two games in this series after their 120-119 upset loss at home against the Pacers as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Indiana (56-33) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: After decisively losing Game One of this series, Cleveland looked to be on the way to evening this series at 1-1 before shenanigans took place late in the game which opened the door for the Pacers to steal that game. The Cavaliers only made 43.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They were once again without Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De’Andre Hunter in that game — but after all three participated in the morning shoot-around, all three players have been upgraded to probable to take the court in this must-win contest. Getting these players back should jumpstart the Cleveland defense that has allowed Indiana to make at least 51.8% of their shots in both games in this series. Donovan Mitchell has been great in this series by scoring 33 and 48 points — and now he is getting more help again. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up loss to a fellow Central Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last ten days. The Cavs have played three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have been reliable road warriors as well having covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland will be playing with a sense of urgency — and it may be difficult for the Pacers to match that intensity. It’s human nature — and, as it is, Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a win by six points or less including nine of those 11 games played on their home court. They have played four straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing three or more Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 13 of the last 16 games between these two teams. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss at home including 14 of those 23 games played on the road. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (563) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (558) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (557) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (72-16) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 121-119 upset loss at home against the Nuggets as a 10.5-point underdog on Monday. Denver (55-35) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 42.0% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Thunder should bounce back since they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after a loss at home in their last game. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home when favored this season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when playing 10 or more points. Denver played their best defensive game in their last 15 contests by holding the Thunder to 44.2% shooting. While the Nuggets are playing better defense in the playoffs for interim head coach David Adelman, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.5 is the worst of the remaining eight teams in the postseason. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win by six points or less. And in their last 10 games on the road after winning on the road in their last game, they have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge including 10 of those 13 games played at home. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (558) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (556) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (555) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-23) had won two games in a row before their 108-105 upset loss as an 8.5-point favorite in the opening game of this series on Monday. New York (56-33) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS FOR THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston launched 60 shots from behind the arc in Game One — and they were ice-cold by missing 45 of these shots. The Celtics led the league in the regular season by averaging 48.2 shots from 3-point range per game — but 60 shots suggests they were not taking the Knicks very seriously. Their 35.1% shooting percentage in that game was their worst offensive performance of the season. They should take more shots closer to the rim tonight to get more easy baskets while opening up the perimeter a bit more. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games at home in the postseason after an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games under head coach Joe Mazzula after losing at home. Historically, teams coming off embarrassing shooting nights from distance when they attempted at least 40 shots from behind the arc and did not make at least 30% of these shots have bounced back to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games. New York played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Celtics to 35.1% shooting. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a fellow Atlantic Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a win against a divisional opponent. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 10 games against teams winning at least 70% of their games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those games including four of the five games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge including seven of those nine games played at home. 10* NBA New York-Boston TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (556) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (588) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (587) in Game One of their Western Conference semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-34) has won three games in a row after their 103-96 upset victory in Los Angeles to upset the Lakers as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday. Golden State (53-37) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 103-89 upset victory at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog to win that series in seven games on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota is peaking at just the right time with 12 victories in their last 14 games. They suffocated the Lakers on defense by holding them to 43.9% shooting which resulted in just 100.4 Points-Per-Game despite the vast majority of the NBA punditocracy hyperventilating about Los Angeles pulling off the biggest heist in the history of the professional sports by letting Dallas off the hook from the perpetually overweight Luka Doncic from paying him a $300 hundred million dollar contract extension (for the record, I think it was a fine deal for the Lakers — but to not appreciate that the decision to not give the bag to a player they knew better than everyone else was at least a reasonable conclusion was hot take gas-baggery. You would think that Doncic losing in the first round of the playoffs would quiet the hyperbole, but it won’t because it is so easy to puppet conventional wisdom). Back to the Timberwolves who get to host the first two games of this series where they are making 47.2% of their shots which is resulting in 115.8 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 15 of their lsat 23 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Additionally, while the Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 PPG, the T-Wolves have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. Remember, this is a team that went to the Western Conference Finals last season — so they have plenty of big time playoff experience and just slayed Doncic whose Dallas team last year ended their postseason. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games in the playoffs. Golden State nailed 47.6% of their shots in Game Seven — and got a surprising performance from Buddy Hield — which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Rockets to 40.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests — although that may have had more to do with the woeful shooting of that Houston team. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in the postseason including eight of those 12 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has the opportunity to avenge a 116-115 upset loss at home against the Warriors as a 6.5-point favorite the last time these two teams played on January 15th. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge including eight of those last 12 games at home. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (588) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (587). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (585) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (72-15) has won eight straight games after their 117-115 victory at Memphis as a 15-point favorite back on April 26th that completed that four-game sweep. Denver (54-35) has won three of their last four games after their 120-101 victory at home against the Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday to win that series in seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after winning on the road in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning by six points or less in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in the 4 games this season when they were playing with three or more days of rest. They return home where they have scored the point spread in 29 of their 42 games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their 37 games when favored by double-digits including 16 of those 24 games played at home. Denver faces a brutal situational spot having to refocus from surviving a seven-game series to then travel to begin this series in 48 hours. The lack of roster depth may expose their tired starting unit tonight. The Nuggets averaged only 14.7 minutes per game when their starting five were not playing together which was the third-lowest mark in the league. Bench players are only on the floor in 9.7 minutes per game going into Game Seven of that series which was the second-lowest mark in the postseason — so their starting five may be tiring at this point. The Nuggets have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Thunder hold their opponents to 107.2 Points-Per-Game — and Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games against teams who do not give up more than 108.0 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 220s. And in their last 7 games against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games including three of those four games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four games in the regular season after Denver pulled off a 140-127 on the road in Oklahoma City as a 9-point underdog on Match 10th — and the Thunder have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge including 10 of those 12 games played at home. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (585). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Boston Celtics (554) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (55-33) advanced to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs by defeating the Pistons on the road in Detroit by a 116-113 score as a 1.5-point underdog last Thursday. Boston (65-22) has won six of their last seven games after taking care of Orlando in five games with their 120-89 victory against Orlando as an 11-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset victory including eight of those 12 games played on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. New York’s strength is their scoring attack — but they only rank 15th in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.7. That may spell trouble against this Celtics offense that ranks second in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.4 this season. Under head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks have played 4 of their 6 opening games of a new playoff series Over the Total. Boston has played 11 of their 18 games under head coach Joe Mazzula Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They closed out their series with the Magic by holding them to 37.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 33 games. They also enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season by nailing 56.6% of their shots. I do not expect regression on the offensive end of the court after dealing with the outstanding Orlando defense that ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Celtics return home where they have played 18 of their 27 games Over the Total with the total set in the 210s with Mazzula as their head coach — and they have played five of their last seven home games Over the Total with the Total set from 210 to 219.5. And while the Knicks are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 Points-Per-Game, Boston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opens by +3.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over was 3-1 in the four meetings between these two teams this season after the Celtics’ 119-117 upset win at New York as a 1-point underdog on April 8th. All four games saw at least 223 combined points scored — and that was the lone Under with that Total set at 232. The Knicks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Boston Celtics (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (540) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (539) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Houston (55-33) forced a decisive Game Seven with their 115-107 upset victory on the road against the Warriors as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (52-37) has lost the last two games of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ime Udoka has been masterful in this series for Houston. A matchup zone defense that has smothered Stephen Curry has frustrated the Warriors' scoring attack. Curry scored 36 points from 23 shots in Game Three — but all the attention he received with double-teams in Games Four and Five compelled him to defer to his teammates as he took only 13 and 12 shots in those games. In Game Six, Curry might have forced too many shots as he only made 9 of his 23 shots despite scoring 29 points. In his last three games, he has only made 19 of his 48 shots (39.6) including a 33.3% clip from his 33 shots from behind the arc from his Golden State only made 41.1% of their shots in that game which was the shooting effort in their last eight games. The Warriors now have the dilemma of whether Curry should try to carry his team again tonight or rely on what is a mediocre supporting cast to make shots in a hostile environment. Game Six was the opportunity they needed to seize. Jimmy Butler was supposed to be the complementary scorer to address this need — but he is struggling to play through the pelvic injury he suffered in Game Two that kept him out of Game Three. Butler did score 27 points on Friday but he only made 7 of his 17 shots (41.2%) and missed five of his six shots from behind the arc. In the three games since returning to the court in Game Four, he has made only 16 of his 39 shots (41.0%) — and he made only 2 of his 11 shots (18.1%) from 3-point range. The Warriors have now failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the postseason. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. The two vulnerabilities for Houston entering this series were their playoff experience and their shooting. But they won Game Six despite making only 44.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three contests. And now they have six playoff games under their belt with plenty of confidence they can close things out after stealing Game Six on the road. Oduka has found a very effective combination of playing Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams in a big lineup that is exposing the Warriors' lack of size. When they are together on the court, the Rockets have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.2 in this series and an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 85.0. Oduka played Adams for 31 minutes coming off the bench in Game Six — expect more of the same since Golden State is failing to stop Houston’s drives to the paint. The Rockets have covered the point spread in these last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The last three games have finished Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games after playing three or more Overs in a row. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. The Rockets return home where they have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 85 games in front of their home fans.

FINAL TAKE: Back to Oduka, in his six games as a head coach in the postseason when facing elimination going back to his tenure with the Boston Celtics, his teams have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests including twice in this series. 10* NBA Golden State-Houston TNT Special with the Houston Rockets (540) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (537) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (538) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 111-105 victory as a 6-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (53-35) had won two games in a row in this series before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Tyron Lue made a critical adjustment to begin the second half of Game Six by benching Kris Dunn for Nicolas Batum who would defend Jamal Murray but could still cover Nikola Jokic on switches from the Denver pick-and-roll. Lue also shifted Kawhi Leonard off Michael Porter, Jr. to defend Aaron Gordon in an easier assignment that allowed him to float as a help defender on other Denver players. I am not going to try to outguess what these professional head coaches will tweak for Game Seven — but these Game Six details illustrate the edge Los Angeles has tonight versus the Nuggets’ interim head coach David Adelman who is a trial-by-fire in these playoffs in his audition to become their next head coach. The Clippers are better than their season record suggests. Since the trade deadline, they closed out the regular season on a 22-10 run which included upsetting Golden State on the road in the final game of the regular season to claim the fifth seed and avoid the trial of the Play-In Tournament. In their last 24 games in the regular season when Leonard was on the court, they won 18 of those games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +3.3 Points-Per-Game, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. It is interesting to note that the Clippers are outscoring Denver in this series by +3.8 PPG while holding them to just 105.7 PPG which is -14.0 PPG below their season average. Los Angeles is making 48.8% of their shots which is above their 48.2% season average — and while the Nuggets are making 50.4% this season, they are only shooting 47.5% in this series. Bench depth is another issue working against Denver in this Game Seven. The Nuggets averaged only 14.7 minutes per game when their starting five were not playing together which was the third-lowest mark in the league. Bench players are only on the floor in 9.7 minutes per game in this series which is the second-lowest mark in the postseason — so their starting five may be tiring at this point. Denver has a Porter, Jr. problem as well — he is getting cooked by James Harden in isolation and Jokic is not an elite rim protector to offer help if and when Porter, Jr. gets beat. Given Porter’s nagging shoulder injury, Adelman may opt to play him less in lieu of Russell Westbrook who is a better defender. The problem with that move is that Westbrook remains very volatile on the offensive end of the court. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games when favored by up to six points -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (537) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (54-33) extended this series to a sixth game with their 131-116 victory at home against the Warriors as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (52-36) had won two games in a row but still can close things out given their 3-2 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After shooting only 44.3%  and scoring 101.8 Points-Per-Game in the first four games of this series, the Rockets’ offense exploded with a 55.1% shooting clip on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They have only enjoyed a better shooting percentage five times this season — and they have scored more than 131 points just seven times this season. They nailed 13 of their 30 shots from behind the arc — and that 43% shooting slip from 3-point range was well above their 35.4% clip with 3-pointers this season. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods. As it is, Houston has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after scoring 111 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rockets go back on the road, where they have played 12 of their last 20 games under the total against teams that have won 51-60% of their games. Head coach Ime Udoka has seen his teams play 17 of their 29 games in the postseason finish Under the Total including four of their five games when facing elimination in the series. The 131 points that Golden State surrendered is tied for the fourth most points they have given up all season. They have only let five opponents shoot better than 55.1% from the field all season. Head coach Steve Kerr should tighten things up on defense tonight. After the All-Star break, his team ranked third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to close out the regular season. The Warriors have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Additionally, Golden State has played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. And while the Rockets outrebound their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Warriors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Despite the Over on Wednesday, these two teams have played 11 of their last 17 meetings Under the Total including five of the last seven games played on Golden State’s home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 126 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where they allowed their opponent to make 52.4% or more of their shots from the field. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (519) plus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (520) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (54-33) had won two games in a row in this series before their 106-103 upset loss at home as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Detroit (46-41) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York blew their opportunity to close out this series on Tuesday — but they have still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The Knicks have been consistent road warriors this season who have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 51-60% of their games. Detroit may be due for a letdown after pulling off the upset victory in Madison Square Garden to extend this series. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after pulling off an upset win including seven of those nine games played at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after an upset win on the road. Detroit returns home where they have been a reliable underdog — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games at home when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (519) plus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (510) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (53-33) has lost six of their last seven games after their 109-106 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Golden State (52-35) took a 3-1 series lead with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Jalen Green struggled in both games in Golden State — and he comes off scoring just 8 points on Monday on 3 of 8 shooting. Green did not play very well at home in the opening game of this series either — but he rebounded in Game Two by scoring 38 points on 13 of 25 shooting from the field. Green should continue to play better back at home. Houston lost Game Four on the charity stripe where they missed 12 of their 31 shots. After posting that 61% clip, they should take better advantage of their free throws tonight back at home where they are making 73.8% of their shots from the line. They are a team that led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 36.3% of their missed shots — and they also ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 14 games after a loss by six points or less including five of those eight games played at home. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. At home, they are holding their opponents to 106.9 Points-Per-Game — and they are outscoring their opponent's guests by +6.5 Points-Per-Game. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State took Game Four despite making only 41.9% of their shots in that game. They converted on 20 of their 22 shots at the free-throw line. But the Warriors are only making 43.9% of their shots in their series which is resulting in 104.6 Points-Per-Game which is -8.7 PPG below their season average. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games at home when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Houston Rockets (510) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (503) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (504) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Detroit (45-41) has lost five of their last six games after their 94-93 upset loss at home against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (54-32) took a 3-1 series lead with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will have another chip on their shoulder for this game after feeling they got jobbed by the referees for not calling a foul when Tim Hardaway got bumped in his last-second 3-point attempt. The league later admitted a foul should have been called. The Pistons have been very competitive in this series — so they are not lacking in confidence against this Knicks team. They only made 42.9% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. As it is, Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after losing at home in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The Pistons did win in Madison Square Garden in Game Two of this series last Monday — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 42 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including 12 of those 19 games played on the road. New York played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Pistons to 42.9% shooting. While regression on that end of the court is likely, the Knicks are struggling to make baskets against this physical Detroit defense. New York is only making 44.7% of their shots in the four games in this series which has resulted in just 107.3 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home. Additionally, New York has only covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams winning 51-60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 opportunities to avenge a loss at home including nine of those 13 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home as the favorite. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (503) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (579) and the Miami Heat (580) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (67-18) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series with their 124-87 win against the Heat as a 5-point road favorite on Saturday. Miami (39-48) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. Cleveland now attempts to close out this series on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in April including four straight games this month. They have also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the opening round of the playoffs including five of those last six games on the road. And in their last 4 games on the road when leading in a playoff series, they have played 3 of those games Under the Total. Miami played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Cavs to make 53.5% of their shots. The Heat should play better on defense tonight — but they just lack options when it comes to the other end of the court. Miami is scoring only 99.7 Points-Per-Game in this series. The Heat have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games at home when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5. point range. Miami has also played 4 straight Unders at home in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (579) and the Miami Heat (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-22) had won four games in a row before their 95-93 upset loss on the road against the Magic as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Orlando (43-43) trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jrue Holiday is out for Boston tonight as he deals with a hamstring injury — but Jayson Tatum is probable despite his wrist injury and Jaylen Brown is expected to play despite being officially listed as questionable because of his knee. Tatum scored 36 points in Game Three while Brown added 19 points. The Celtics only made 44.6% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort for them in this series. But Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game including all seven of those games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by six points or less including all four of those games played on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Orlando pulled off the upset despite only making 41.0% of their shots. They are only making 43.5% of their shots in this series which is resulting in a mere 93.7 Points-Per-Game. Scoring is the Achilles’ heel of this season since they only make 44.5% of their shots this season which has produced only 105.2 PPG. They rank 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month is with the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (53-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 109-94 victory as a 4-point favorite at home against the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (50-35) had won two games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston got the proverbial money off their back by winning their first playoff game in the Jalen Green era. I expect them to play loose and with confidence tonight. After struggling in Game One, Green was sensational in Game Two by scoring 38 points from 13 of 25 shooting including an 8 of 18 clip from behind the arc. Head coach Ime Udoka has his team playing physical basketball which should translate well into the postseason. The Rockets rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the league by pulling down 36.3% of their missed shots. They outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home against teams who outrebound their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Golden State lacks size and does not have an effective counter to Houston’s big man Alperin Sengun. This young Rockets team will enter into this game rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while they had played three straight games at home before tonight, Houston has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more games in a row at home. Additionally, while the books expect an old-fashioned NBA rock fight tonight with the Total set in the 203 range, that fits Udoka’s coaching style quite well when considering his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of the 21 games in his head coaching career when the Total was set from 200 to 209.5. Golden State’s Jimmy Butler is a game-time decision tonight after he suffered a pelvis injury during Wednesday’s game. He is officially listed as questionable — and we have to assume that Butler plays given his toughness. If he can’t take the court, then swell. But even if he plays tonight, he will likely not be close to 100%. As it is, the Warriors have scored only 94 and 95 points in the first two games of this series. This team lacked a reliable second scorer to help Stephen Curry which is why the organization traded for (and agreed to pay) Butler. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after playing a game where they did not score more than 100 points. The Warriors are usually overvalued by the betting public when playing at home as the favorite as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 63 games at home when playing the points including 20 of those 31 games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month is with the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 p.m. ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (555) and the Milwaukee Bucks (556) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (52-32) has won nine of their last ten games after a 123-115 victory at home against the Bucks as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (49-36) had won eight games in a row before falling behind 0-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers shot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday to take the second game of this series. Indiana has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Now they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog from 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog in that range. Additionally, the Pacers have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee got Damian Lillard back on the court after he was out for a lengthy period of time with an injury — but he only converted 4 of 13 shots from the field and just 2 of his 8 shots from behind the arc en route to 14 points. He should play better tonight now that he has knocked some of the rust off. The Bucks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. As it is, they are nailing 50.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 122.8 Points-Per-Game. But they are also letting their last five opponents make 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 120.6 PPG. Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total when favored. They have also played  21 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points including 14 of those 19 games played at home. They have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored by six points or less. And in their last 5 home games against teams winning 60-70% of their games, they have played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 15 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (555) and the Milwaukee Bucks (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) and the Memphis Grizzlies (546) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (70-15) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-99 victory as a 14.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (49-37) has lost five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies managed to hold the Thunder to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. Their play on defense remains inconsistent since Tuomas Iiasalo took over as the interim head coach in late March. In the 13 games he has been the head coach, Memphis has surrendered at least 117 points eight times — and they have given up 131 or more points in four of those contests. Perhaps more importantly to get back into this series, the Grizzlies have to shoot better than the 42.9% they shot on Tuesday. That was an improvement over their 34.4% field goal percentage in Game One of this series. Returning home should help where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is resulting in 123.4 Points-Per-Game. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after losing on the road in their last game. They have played 4 straight Overs on their home court since Iiasalo took over — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, Memphis has played 22 of their last 32 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has played 14 of their last 23 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Thunder have played three straight Unders — but they have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row under head coach Mark Daigneault including 10 Unders in those last 13 situations. Oklahoma City is making 48.0% of their shots this season which is resulting in 120.1 PPG — and they have nailed 48.7% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 126.8 PPG. The Thunder have played 14 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when avenging a loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) and the Memphis Grizzlies (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (534) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (533) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-33) has lost two games in a row after their 117-95 loss at home against the Timberwolves as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Minnesota (50-33) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves dominated Los Angeles in Game One by shooting 50% from behind the arc after nailing 21 of their 42 shots from 3-point range. Julius Randle hit 4 of his 6 shots from downtown. Naz Reid converted 6 of his 9 shots from distance. Jaden McDaniels converted all 3 of his 3-pointers and Mike Conley made 2 of his 3 shots from behind the arc. I expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight with the belief that it is simply not sustainable for Anthony Edwards’ four teammates in the starting lineup to come close to shooting 71.4% (15-21) with their 3-point shots. The Timberwolves are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA — but that is by making 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Lakers should defend the arc better tonight — they rank fifth in the league by holding their opponents to 33.9% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home at Crypto.com Arena. Minnesota may be ripe for a letdown considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 20 or more points. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last nine contests after allowing the T-Wolves to make 51.2% of their shots. And for the second straight game, the Lakers shot less than 40% from the field. If there was a silver lining, it was that Luka Doncic continued to cook against this Minnesota team after dominating them in the playoffs last season. Doncic scored 37 points on 12 of 22 shooting which included making 5 of his 10 shots from behind the arc. With the Dallas Mavericks last postseason, Doncic scored 32.4 Points-Per-Game while making 47.3% of his shots including a 43.4% clip from behind the arc in that game five-game series en route to the NBA Finals. The Lakers posted an 18-10 record in the regular season in the 28 games Doncic played for them after the blockbuster trade with the Mavericks. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after losing two games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when continuing a home stand. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (534) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Denver Nuggets (524) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-33) had been on an eight-game winning streak before their 112-110 loss in overtime as a 3-point road underdog on Saturday. Denver (51-32) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Clippers to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. After four games under interim head coach David Adelman, some interesting trends are beginning to emerge. He replaced Michael Malone because the team was slumping and not seeming to listen to his messages any longer. The effort on defense seems to have improved. In their four games with Adelman leading the way, Denver ranks 13th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is an improvement over their season ranking of 22nd. They are surrendering -2.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in these four games versus the entire season. The 20 turnovers they forced in Game One of this series speak to their improved work rate on that end of the court. The Nuggets have not given up more than 116 points in their last four games — and their last three opponents have scored just 109, 110, and 111 points. But the efficiency on offense has dropped a bit despite Adelman having the reputation of being a bright offensive-minded coach. Despite ranking fourth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they drop to 16th in their last four games while scoring -5.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions during that span. I’m not sure if Adelman has called for changes to help the play on defense or if this is just noise from a small sample size — but it does make me reconsider Over plays with the Nuggets. Denver has played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The Under is 2-2 in Adelman’s four games as a head coach — but both of their games played at home were Unders. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total in the playoffs including four straight Unders in the first round of the postseason. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The Clippers held the Nuggets to just 43.6% shooting on Saturday which is a feat they can continue since they rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range including eight of those 11 games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams from the Northwest Division — and the Nuggets have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams from the Pacific Division. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Denver Nuggets (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the Houston Rockets (516) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-34) has won eight of their last 11 games after their 121-116 win against Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite in their Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday. Houston (52-30) has lost three games in a row after their 126-111 loss at home to Denver as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors rank seventh in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but since the All-Star break, they have risen to third in that metric thanks to the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. They have held their last five opponents to 46.0% shooting which has resulted in just 107.0 Points-Per-Game. This is Golden State’s fourth game since April 11th — and they have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when rested and playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when listed as an underdog of up to six points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Rockets outrebound their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG including four of those five games played on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home after a straight-up win at home. This is just their fifth game in the last two days — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The Rockets are an elite defensive team that imposes their will from a very physical style of play. Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Tari Eason are elite defensive talents. Houston ranks fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 10th in steals, 11th in deflections, and 13th in blocks. On their home court, they are limiting their guests to 44.9% shooting which is resulting in just 107.5 PPG. The Rockets have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams just played on April 6th in a game that had a playoff atmosphere since seeding in the Western Conference remained very much at stake. Houston pulled off a 106-96 upset victory as a 5-point underdog on the road — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the Houston Rockets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (49-33) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-105 victory against Utah as a 23-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (50-32) had won two games in a row before their 109-81 loss at Portland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by rim protector Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to fifth in that category when playing on the road. They also play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league by averaging only 97.95 possessions per game. With the week off while the Play-In Tournament took place, they will begin this series rested and ready. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 5 of their 7 games this month Under the Total. The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks last postseason — and head coach Chris Finch has had almost a year to reconsider how to defend against Doncic if given the opportunity again. Doncic torched the T-Wolves by scoring 32.4 Points-Per-Game while nailing 43.4% of the 10.6 shots from behind the arc he averaged in that series. But Minnesota should be in a better position to defend Doncic this year since the Lakers lack the size that Dallas had in that series. The Timberwolves should defend Doncic coming off the pick-and-roll better this time — and Gobert should have more free reign to protect the rim. Since joining the Lakers, Doncic is not attacking the rim as much as he did with the Mavericks — and his shooting percentage has dropped from 46.4% with Dallas this season to 43.8% with Los Angeles. The addition of Doncic has not made a significant impact on their efficiency on offense. Since the All-Star break, they are only scoring +0.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than their season average. Trading away Anthony Davis has contributed to the Lakers becoming a mostly jump-shooting team. They rank only 17th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home since the All-Star Break. Trading Davis for Doncic has not impacted Los Angeles' play on defense — they are surrendering -0.2. fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break when compared to their season-long Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. At home, the Lakers rank tied for ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. Los Angeles also plays at the 11th slowest pace in the NBA — so this should be a lower-scoring game.

FINAL TAKE: Only 213 combined points were scored in the last meeting between these two teams in a 111-102 victory for the Lakers at home at Crypto.com Arena. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (590) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (589) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-43) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 120-95 loss at Orlando in their initial Play-In game on Tuesday. Miami (38-45) kept their season alive with their 109-90 upset victory at Chicago as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. The winner of this game makes the playoffs and will play at Cleveland on Sunday. The loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): It is telling that the books initially made Atlanta a 1.5-point favorite before money started coming in on the Heat. I suspect that is an overreaction to how good Miami looked against the Bulls (and how bad the Hawks looked against the Magic) — and that would be a short-term overreaction. Granted, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach — but Atlanta’s Quin Snyder is no slouch either. The Hawks enjoy a situational edge playing at home with an extra day of rest while Miami has to travel for the second time this week. Atlanta only made 38.1% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 40 games. They only converted on 19.0% of their shots from behind the arc. The Hawks are better than that. Since the beginning of March, they rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also let Orlando nail 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. While defense is not this team’s strong suit, they do rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since March. Dyson Daniels is a pesky on-the-ball defender who can make life difficult for the Heat’s Tyler Herro. At home, Atlanta is making 47.6% of their shots which is generating 118.2 Points-Per-Game. They also nail 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc on their home court. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games as an underdog of up to six points. And while this is their eighth game in the last two weeks, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. Miami played their best defensive game in their last eight contests on Wednesday by holding the Bulls to 39.8% shooting. They also converted 18 of their 33 shots from behind the arc — but they are not likely to make 54.5% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win on the road. And in their last 19 games when playing for the second time in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those contests. I don’t love the offensive profile of this team — especially now that Jimmy Butler is no longer on the team. If their 3s are not falling, they lack a reliable Plan B. They rank 27th in the NBA by pulling down 26.3% of their missed shots. They rank just 24th in getting to the free-throw line. At least when they had Butler, they had a reliable go-to scorer who could cook in isolation when they needed a bucket — and he was great at getting to the free-throw line. Miami is outside the top ten in the league by averaging only 13.7 made 3s per game — and their 36.7% shooting percentage beyond the arc also ranks outside the top ten. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when favored by up to six points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when playing a team that is winning 40-49% of their games. And while the Hawks are making 47.1% of their shots this season, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 25 games on the road against teams who convert on at least 46% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: A 10-seed in the NBA Play-In Tournament has not ever advanced to the playoffs — and I don’t think that streak gets broken tonight. The Heat won the last meeting between these teams by a 122-112 score on March 27th — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 29 opportunities to avenge a loss. The home team has won and covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (590) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (589). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (577) and the Orlando Magic (578) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-42) has won three games in a row after their 117-105 upset victory against Orlando as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Orlando (41-41) saw their five-game winning streak snapped with that loss on the final day of the regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The line is telling us a lot for this game since it is just the third game all season for the Hawks when the Total was below the 220 mark. Since Quin Snyder took over as their head coach, Atlanta has only had 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s — and 4 of those games finished Under the Total. The Hawks are not a good defensive team — they allow their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots which is resulting in 119.3 Points-Per-Game that they are giving up. But much of their issues on defense is simply an issue of effort as their group prefers to try to win shootouts. Look for their effort and energy on defense to be better now that they are in the postseason — and they have been playing better on that end of the court lately. They have held their last five opponents to 46.2% shooting which has resulted in 115.4 PPG which is -3.9 fewer PPG than their season average. They allowed the Magic to make 45.5% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after pulling off an upset victory. Orlando has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. They have also played all 5 of their games Under the Total after an upset loss to a fellow Southeast Division rival since Jamahl Mosely took over as their head coach. The Magic are an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank second in that metric since the beginning of March. They also lead the league in defensive rebounding and second in second-chance points allowed per 100 possessions. Orlando has played 20 of their last 33 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. The Hawks score 118.2 PPG — and the Magic have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams who score 116 or more PPG. Orlando has also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 116 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t want to read too much into Sunday’s game between these teams since nothing was at stake and both head coaches rested their key starters. But the Magic did allow Atlanta to make 53.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 17 games. I expect Mosley to use that effort to refocus the defensive commitment of his team tonight. In the 11 games in his tenure when Orlando was avenging an upset loss on the road, 9 of those games finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (577) and the Orlando Magic (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-32) has won seven straight games after their 101-100 victory at Sacramento as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Golden State (48-33) has won two of their last three games after their 103-86 victory at Portland as a 15.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: On the final day of the NBA regular season, this is the contest that has the most at stake for both teams as the winner clinches a spot in the top six in the Western Conference playoffs and avoids the play-in tournament. The Clippers have raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles leads the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. They have not allowed more than 106 points in five of their last seven games — and four of those opponents did not score more than 100 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 105.8 Points-Per-Game. The Clippers have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Golden State leads the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since they picked up Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline. They have not allowed more than 106 points in four of their last five games as well as six of their last nine contests. They have held their last five opponents to 45.4% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG. The Warriors have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against who are winning 60-75% of their games including six of those nine games played at home. The Clippers have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (527) and the Denver Nuggets (528). THE SITUATION: Memphis (47-33) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 141-125 loss at home to Minnesota last night. Denver (48-32) ended their four-game losing streak with a 124-116 victory at Sacramento as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last two days. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four days. They will be without Brandon Clarke tonight who is out the rest of the season with a knee injury. Memphis loses a little when he is off the court as their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from 116.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions to 115.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions — but the defense suffers even more. The Grizzlies have a 108.2 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with Clarke on the court — and they allow +4.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when he is off the court. Memphis goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 230s. And while the Nuggets are outrebounding their opponents by +4.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Grizzlies have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Denver is surrendering 117.0 Points-Per-Game this season — and Memphis has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams who give up 116 or more PPG including six of those eight games played on the road. Denver held the Kings to 46.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games. It was the first game since ownership fired both head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth yesterday. Assistant head coach David Adelman takes over as the interim head coach for the rest of the regular season and their postseason run. Adelman is considered the architect of the Nuggets’ offensive attack. He is replacing Malone because the players stopped responding to their veteran head coach’s messages. There were a few subtle changes in the Nuggets’ approach against Sacramento. Nikola Jokic was empowered to take more of a leadership role in huddles regarding who the offense would operate. Adelman also played Jalen Pickett for more than 31 minutes — and while he scored 18 points, he was targeted by the Kings on the defensive end of the court. Adelman also only had Russell Westbrook on the court for 16:45 minutes despite him being one of their best defensive players. Denver lacks the personnel to play significantly better right now — and it does not help that Jamal Murray remains questionable with his hamstring injury. The Nuggets have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.9% of their shots which is resulting in 122.4 PPG. Denver has played 26 of their 40 games Over the Total this season — and they have played 10 of their 14 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies are allowing 117.1 PPG this season — and the Nuggets have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams who are giving up 116 or more PPG including six of those nine games at home. And while Memphis is scoring 121.7 PPG, Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets won the last meeting between these two teams by a 122-110 score as a 6-point underdog at Memphis on November 19th — and the Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (527) and the Denver Nuggets (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (569) and the Sacramento Kings (570). THE SITUATION: Denver (47-32) has lost four games in a row after their 125-120 loss against Indiana as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (39-40) has won three games in a row after their 127-117 upset victory at Detroit as a 6-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have suffered four straight upset losses — and that prompted ownership to fire both head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth yesterday. Assistant head coach David Adelman takes over as the interim head coach for the rest of the regular season and their postseason run. Bettors have jumped on Denver with the Nuggets opening as a 1.5-point road favorite but now pushed up to a 4.5-point road favorite. The bump after a head coach firing in the NBA has not been a reliable angle for several years now. Instead, I expect the reaction by the Denver players to help the Over. Adelman is considered the architect of the Nuggets’ offensive attack. He is replacing Malone because the players stopped responding to their veteran head coach’s messages. The personality of this team when facing adversity is to play higher-scoring games — so that is how I expect them to respond to the coaching change with Adelman tweaking the offensive schematics. Denver has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road when playing with two days of rest. The Nuggets’ offense has been operating at a high level. In their loss to the Pacers, they made 53.8% of their shots which was still their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. The problem has been the play on defense. Denver has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games including all three of those games played on the road. Jamal Murray has been downgraded to doubtful due to the hamstring injury that has kept him on the shelf recently. But the Kings have posted both Keegan Murray and Malik Monk as doubtful to injuries as well — and the loss of Monk, in particular, takes away one of their best interior defenders. Sacramento has allowed nine of their last 17 opponents to make at least 51.9% of their shots. But after nailing 53.7% of their shots against Cleveland, they converted on 51.6% of their shots against the Pistons on Monday. The Kings have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. This is their third game since Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Sacramento returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +3.6 Points-Per-Game — and the Kings have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. And in their last 18 games against teams who are winning 51-60% of their games, Sacramento has played 12 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and Denver has played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (569) and the Sacramento Kings (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (553) and the Phoenix Suns (554). THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-32) had won five games in a row before their 106-96 upset loss at home against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (35-43) has lost six games in a row after their 112-98 loss at New York against the Knicks as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr needs his team to get back to playing better defense after the Rockets made 48.4% of their shots against them. That came on the heels of Denver nailing 54.1% of their shots in their previous game. Golden State still ranks sixth in the NBA in their last 15 games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. With Gary Payton II back in the mix after getting injured along with Jimmy Butler’s defensive commitment and an increase of playing time of Kevon Looney, the Warriors have several good defensive players to complement Draymond Green who is playing at his Defensive Player of the Year level right now. Golden State has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss including eight of those ten games played at home. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. Phoenix only made 42.4% of their shots on Sunday as they continue to struggle to make baskets with Kevin Durant injured. He has missed the last three games — and the Suns have only scored 201 combined points in their last two games. Bradley Beal has played those last two games since returning from his injury — but after going 0-7 from the field and scoring one point on Friday against Boston, he only scored 16 points against the Knicks as he does not appear healthy enough to take on being the team’s primary scorer. They are scoring only 108.4 Points-Per-Game in their last five games which is -5.6 PPG below their season average. Phoenix has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after losing on the road in their last game. After playing their last three games on the road, they return back home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (553) and the Phoenix Suns (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (527) and the Denver Nuggets (528). THE SITUATION: Indiana (46-31) has won three games in a row after their 140-112 win against Utah as a 17-point favorite on Friday. Denver (47-31) has suffered three-straight upset losses after their 118-104 upset loss at Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers held the Jazz to 37.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Indiana has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after scoring at least 136 points in their last game. Now after finishing up their three-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight games at home. They have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 17 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record including eleven of those fifteen games played on the road. The Pacers will not have the defensive services of Pascal Siakam tonight who is out with an elbow injury. Denver made 54.1% of their shots against the Warriors which was actually the second-lowest shooting percentage for them in their last five games. Jamal Murray is questionable to play with a hamstring injury — but he has missed the previous four games and the Nuggets still made at least 54.1% of their shots in three of those contests. Denver has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing two gamers in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 230s.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference including 12 of those 14 games played at home. Indiana has played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (527) and the Denver Nuggets (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (571) and the San Antonio Spurs (572). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (61-15) has won five of their last six games after their 124-105 victory against New York as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (32-44) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 113-106 upset victory at Denver as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers held the Knicks to 44.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games. Despite that effort, their last five opponents have made 44.1% of their shots against them which has resulted in 117.4 Points-Per-Game which is +5.2 PPG above their season average. They also are making 50.2% of their shots in those last five games which has resulted in 123.8 PPG. Cleveland has played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total including 10 of those 15 games played on the road. They go back on the road where they have played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have played 24 of their 28 games this season Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. San Antonio held the Nuggets to just 39.6% shooting on Wednesday which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. Despite that surprising effort, they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in 123.0 PPG. Playing without their best defensive player Victor Wembanyama who is out the season due to injury, defensive performances like that are likely to be rare outliers. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing for the third time in the last four days. They have played 20 of their last 32 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 230 or higher including 12 of those 16 games played at home. They also also played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference including nine of those 12 games played at home. This is just the third game at home this season for the Spurs when they were an underdog getting 12.5 or more points — both of those two previous games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers lead the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and while San Antonio is making 46.5% of their shots this season, Cleveland has played 29 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams who are making 46% or more of their shots including 15 of those 18 games played on the road. 10* NBA Friday Night O/U Discounted Deal with the Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (571) and the San Antonio Spurs (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (536) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (535). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (60-15) has won four of their last five games after their 127-122 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New York (48-27) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests after their 105-91 victory against Philadelphia as a 13-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland outlasted the Clippers three days ago despite allowing them to make 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Cavaliers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with two days of rest. They stay at home for this one where they have a 32-5 record along with an average winning margin of +10.0 Points-Per-Game. They are mostly healthy for this nationally-televised game as only Ty Jerome is out due to an injury or load management. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points . Additionally, while New York scores 116.2 PPG this season, the Cavs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG including five of those six games played at home. The Knicks are outscoring their opponents vying for +4.4 PPG — and Cleveland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG including seven of those ten games played at home. New York held the 76ers to a 42.0% field goal percentage last night which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. But rim protector Mitchell Robinson is getting tonight’s game off because of load management. The Knicks are still playing without Jalen Brunson although he is expected back perhaps by the weekend. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days including six of those seven games played on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. The Knicks have been listed as an underdog only 14 times this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season on the road when listed as an underdog from 6.5 to 12 points. And in their 6 games this season against teams winning 70% or more of their games, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks want to avenge a 142-105 loss in Cleveland the last time these two teams played on February 21st. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 opportunities for revenge this season including nine of those 13 games played on the road. 10* NBA New York-Cleveland ESPN Special with the Cleveland Cavaliers (536) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (511) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (512). THE SITUATION: Chicago (33-41) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 120-119 upset loss at home against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma City (62-13) has won nine games in a row after their 132-111 victory against Indiana as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls held the Mavericks to 46.5% shooting which is just below their 46.7% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season — but it was also the best defensive effort in that metric in their last five games. They rank 24th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Chicago is making 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 128.2 Points-Per-Game — that is +10.8 PPG above their season average. They rank fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in those last five contests. The Bulls have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 19 of their 31 games on the road this season Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 14 games on the road Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is resulting in 122.6 PPG. In their last five games, they are nailing 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 124.4 PPG. Overall this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Furthermore, they have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Over the Total when favored by double-digits.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City won the last meeting between these two teams on October 26th by a 114-94 score on October 26th. The Bulls have played 12 of their last 19 games on the road Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (511) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (510). THE SITUATION: Boston (55-19) has won eight games in a row — as well as 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 121-111 victory at San Antonio as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Memphis (44-30) has lost twice in a row and five of their last six contests after their 134-127 upset loss against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston has amped up their intensity as they prepare for the postseason. Since the All-Star Break, they lead the NBA in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They lead the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since the break — and they have risen to rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star Game. They may play better on the road where they have a 31-7 record with an average winning margin of +11.2 Points-Per-Game. The Celtics finish out their six-game road trip tonight having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis is in a big funk having lost 18 of their last 25 games. Since the All-Star Break, they rank just 18th in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are only 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since then — and they are 21st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This team also ranks just 14th in the league in efficiency on offense in the half-court — and that spells trouble against the Celtics half-court defense. The Grizzlies stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, Memphis is just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics want to avenge a 127-121 upset loss at home against the Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite on December 7th — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge including six of of those nine games played on the road. 8* NBA Boston-Memphis ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (557) and the Denver Nuggets (558). THE SITUATION: Chicago (31-40) has won three of their last four games after their 146-115 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Denver (45-27) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 116-111 victory at Houston as a 7-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets held the Rockets to 43.8% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 16 games. Their last five opponents are still making 49.1% of their shots against them. Denver nailed 50.6% of their shots in the win despite being without Nikola Jokic for the fourth straight game due to an ankle injury. They have shot 50% or better from the field in four of their last six contests. The Nuggets have played 3 of those 4 games without Jokic Over the Total. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest including five of those seven games played at home. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Nuggets return home after their four-game road trip where they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total. This is their sixth game since March 15th — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total when playing for the sixth or mortise in the last ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record including 12 of those 15 games played at home. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference including 10 of those twelve games at home. Chicago has scored at least 120 points in three straight games — and they have made at least 52.3% of their shots from the field in those three games. Over that stretch, they are making 55.1% of their shots. In their last five games, they are making 50.9% of their shots which has resulted in 124.0 Points-Per-Game which is +6.9 PPG above their season average. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 136 or more points in their last game. They complete their six-game road trip tonight playing for the third time since Thursday — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing on the road for the third time in five days. Chicago has played 14 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total in non-conference play including nine of those thirteen games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA while the Nuggets play at the sixth-fastest tempo — and this may explain why these two teams have played 8 of their last 9 meetings in Denver Over the Total. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (557) and the Denver Nuggets (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (562). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (55-13) has won nine of their last 10 games after their 113-107 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Milwaukee (39-28) has won two straight games after their 126-119 victory against Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win on the road. Three have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. They continue the road trip they started on Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the third time in five days. The Thunder are tough to beat because they are so good on defense. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are even better now that Chet Holmgren is healthy and back on the court. With Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, they have twin towers protecting their rim — and usually at least one of them is on the court at all times. Oklahoma City leads the NBA by giving up only 43.6 Points-Per-Game inside the paint. But this team also works very hard on the defensive end of the court. They also lead the league by contesting 19.1 shot attempts per game from behind the arc — and that represents just under 50% of the 38.8 shot attempts their opponents take per game. The Thunder do have some players questionable tonight with Jalen Williams being the biggest name — but they have a good bench to help out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road when favored by up to six points. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 230 or higher including covering the point spread in 8 of those 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 10 of those 15 games on the road. Milwaukee nailed 54.4% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against fellow Central Division rivals. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They are still playing without Bobby Portis who is in the middle of his long suspension. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 230s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 70% or more of their games including failing to cover the point spread in all 4 of those games played at home. The Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 PPG — and the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG including failing to cover the point spread in 6 of those 7 games played at home. And while Oklahoma City is only giving up 107.0 PPG, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not surrender more than 108.0 PPG including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 games played at home.  

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder won the last meeting between these two teams by a 125-96 score on February 3rd. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (543) and the Denver Nuggets (544). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-28) has won four games in a row after their 122-98 victory on the road at Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Denver (39-22) has lost two of their last three games after their 110-103 loss at Boston as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 52% of their shots against the Mavericks on Monday — they are shooting 52.1% of their shots from the field in their last five games while making at least 50.6% of their shots in each of those games. Now they travel to Denver to face a Nuggets team that makes 50.8% of their shots on the season — and Sacramento has played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. Additionally, the Kings have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and five of those Overs came when they were on the road. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they are making 50.8% of their shots which is resulting in 122.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Kings are making 47.8% of their shots this season — and Denver has played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams who are making 46% or more of their shots. And while Sacramento allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots this season, the Nuggets have played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams who are allowing their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (543) and the Denver Nuggets (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) plus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (576). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (32-29) lost for the fourth time in their last five games after their 117-116 upset loss at Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (28-32) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 125-108 victory against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota allowed the Jazz to make 51.1% of their shots which was tied for the second-worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. Anthony Edwards did not play in that game serving his one-game suspension. He is listed as questionable for this contest with a calf injury but with him not being ruled out this early evening, I am making the educated guess that he will get back out on the court after not playing on Friday. Rudy Gobert is out tonight with a back injury and Julius Randle is questionable with a calf injury. Here’s hoping the allure of a nationally televised game will be enough to get both Edwards and Randle to play tonight. Even if one or both of them do not play, I still like the situation for the T-Wolves. They should play better on defense tonight after their effort against the Jazz — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after suffering an upset loss on the road. This is their third game since Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the third time in four days. Additionally, the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as a dog getting up to six points. Phoenix may be without Bradley Beal tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. The Suns made 59.5% of their shots in what was their best shooting effort of the season. They converted 21 of their 40 shots (52%) from behind the arc — so a visit from the Regression Gods is very likely for this team. As it is, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home when favored. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to six points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games with the Total set in the 230s. Minnesota makes 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who make at least 37% of their shots from behind the arc. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home against teams who shoot 37% or better from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have lost both their meetings with the T-Wolves this season after a 121-113 loss at home as a 1-point favorite on January 29th. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) plus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Memphis Grizzlies (542). THE SITUATION: New York (38-20) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 110-105 win at home against Philadelphia as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (38-20) has won two of their last three games after a 151-148 win against Phoenix as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKLE OVER THE TOTAL: Despite holding the 76ers to 44.3% shooting, New York has still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 124.8 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after beating a fellow Atlantic Division rival. They go back on the road where they are making 49.3% of their shots which has resulted in 117.7 PPG. New York has played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. And while the Grizzlies are making 48.3% of their shots which is resulting in 123.3 PPG, the Knicks have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are generating 116 or more PPG — and they have played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams who are making 46% or more of their shots. New York has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 60-75% of their shots. Memphis has allowed their last five opponents to make 48.5% of their shots which has resulted in 127.2 PPG. The Grizzlies have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home -- and they have played 8 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 9 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. And in their last 10 games when playing with two days of rest, they have played 7 of these games Over the Total. Memphis stays at home where they are making 49.1% of their shots which is resulting in 124.4 PPG. The Grizzlies have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total after playing their previous game at home. They have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Against teams from the Eastern Conference, Memphis has played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total in non-conference play. Additionally, the Grizzlies have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies want to avenge a 143-106 victory on the road against the Knicks on January 27th. Memphis has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Memphis Grizzlies (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (505) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (506). THE SITUATION: New York (37-18) has won three games in a row after their 113-111 win against Chicago as an 11.5-point favorite last night. Cleveland (45-10) has won nine of their last ten games after a 110-97 victory at Brooklyn as a 13-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks only made 43.0% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games and second lowest in their last 11 contests. But they also held the Bulls to a 39.8% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last ten contests. Josh Hart is doubtful and O.G. Anunoby is questionable tonight — and while they are both solid two-way players, their potential absence on defense takes away two of their better defenders. As it is, New York has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing the second game in two days. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Cleveland only made 42.6% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games and second-worst in their last 12 contests. But they also held the Nets to 40% shooting in what was tied for their best defensive performance in their last four contests. The Cavaliers have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They return home where they have played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games at home Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks want to avenge a 110-104 upset loss at home against the Cavaliers as a 3-point favorite back on October 28th. New York has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA New York-Cleveland ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (505) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (28-22) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 112-102 victory at Charlotte as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (23-28) has lost nine of their last ten games after their 126-125 loss at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks held the Hornets to just 43.2% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. That performance was an outlier as Milwaukee has allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 125.6 Points-Per-Game which is +13.7 PPG above their season average. The defensive chemistry of this team has been disrupted after trading away Kris Middleton. They did bring in Kyle Kuzma in that three-way deal but he is a game-time decision tonight. The Bucks have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their previous game on the road. This is their eighth game in the last two weeks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. They have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored by up to six points. Atlanta traded away one of their best defensive players this week with DeAndre Hunter dealt away. Bogan Bogdanovich was also traded away — and Caris LeVert is a game-time decision after he was acquired this week. But the season-ending injury has impacted the Hawks' defensive play as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.5% of their shots which has resulted in 125.0 PPG which is +5.8 PPG above their season average. The Spurs made 50.5% of their shots against them on Wednesday which was actually the best defensive effort for Atlanta in their last five games. And after making 51.9% of their shots against Detroit on Monday, they nailed 52.7% of their shots against San Antonio on Wednesday. Atlanta has played four straight Overs — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home. And while this is their eighth game in the last two weeks, they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks are attempting to avenge a 110-102 loss in Milwaukee against the Bucks on December 14th — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with revenge on their minds. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Friday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the San Antonio Spurs (562). THE SITUATION: Miami (23-23) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 126-106 loss to Cleveland as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. San Antonio (21-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 144-118 win against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat are once again playing with Jimmy Butler who got himself suspended again for blowing off another practice. That divorce is imminent with him making trade demands. Miami plays at a much faster pace without him since his offense is dependent on slowing things down to post up in the half court offense. In the Heat’s six games without Butler with the Total set at 223.5 or higher this season, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. Miami has allowed at least 116 points in four of their last five games — and their opponents are making 47.1% of their shots during that span which is resulting in 116.6 Points-Per-Game which is +5.9 PPG above their season defensive average. The Heat have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on the road. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games. San Antonio scored at least 140 points for the second time in their last four games with their win against the Bucks last night. They held Milwaukee to 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 12 contests. The Spurs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset victory. This is their third game since Wednesday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four days. And while they have played nine straight Overs in a row, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They are making 49.0% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 121.0 PPG. But they are allowing their last five opponents to nail 49.1% of their shots which has resulted in 124.0 PPG. San Antonio stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when favored by six points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs are allowing 119.5 PPG against Eastern Conference opponents while making 47.1% of their shots to score 118.0 PPG in t hose contests. San Antonio has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in non-conference play including four straight Overs when playing at home. 10* NBA Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the San Antonio Spurs (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-20) has won three of their last four games after their 128-116 win at San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (12-32) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after a 104-83 upset loss at home against Brooklyn as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hornets shot a season-low 33.7% from the field against the Nets. While I often consider low shooting efforts like that simply an outlier due for a visit from the Regression Gods, in this case, I suspect it is a canary in the coal mine given the injuries that this team is enduring right now. Brandon Miller is already out the season with a wrist injury — he was scoring 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Now LeMelo Ball is out with an ankle injury — he is scoring 28.2 PPG and adding another 7.3 Assists-Per-Game. To compound matters, Mark Williams is also out with a foot injury which takes away his 15.5 PPG scoring average. The Hornets simply lack reliable scoring threats. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Hornets stay at home where they are only making 42.1% of their shots which is resulting in 105.7 PPG — but they play solid defense on their home court by holding their opponents to just 108.7 PPG. They have played 18 of their last 23 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders at home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Charlotte has played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles nailed 52.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed San Antonio to make 48.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Clippers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. This is their third straight game on the road since Monday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Los Angeles is scoring only 108.5 PPG — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. The Hornets are getting outscored by -5.0 PPG this season — and the Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG.  

FINAL TAKE: In 13 games, the Clippers are holding their Eastern Conference opponents to just 42.2% shooting which is resulting in 101.8 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total in non-conference play. The Hornets have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home in non-conference action. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (575) and the Golden State Warriors (576). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-25) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 112-99 upset victory as a 6.5-point underdog on Monday. Golden State (21-22) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six contests after their 123-117 loss at Sacramento as a 7.5-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors need to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Kings to make 50.6% of their shots last night. They continue to play without the injured Draymond Green which does not help on that end of the court. But they are also without Jonathan Kuminga who is their second-leading scorer averaging 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Steph Curry is questionable with his ankle injury — but he is expected to play which likely explains why the Total has been pushed up a handful of points later in the day. Golden State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog in all situations. Chicago is playing better defense lately — they held the Clippers to 39.4% shooting on Monday. The Bulls have held their last five opponents to 44.2% shooting which has resulted in 113.2 Points-Per-Game which is -6.8 PPG below their season average. They may be without point guard Coby White who is questionable with an ankle injury — he is scoring 18.2 PPG and adding 4.7 Assists-Per-Game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning on the road in their last game. Furthermore, the Bulls have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when on the road as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago is giving up 120.0 PPG this season — but the Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 116.0 or more PPG. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (575) and the Golden State Warriors (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (15-26) has lost six games in a row after their 123-109 loss at Milwaukee as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (26-16) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after a 113-100 victory at Orlando as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best defensive game of the season two days ago by holding the Magic to just 37.3% shooting. Now returning home as a double-digit favorite against a banged-up Sixers team, their attention to detail on defense may not be as sharp tonight. But Denver should continue to flex their muscles on the other end of the court where they are clicking on all cylinders. They made 51.9% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They have made at least 51.7% of their shots in six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are healthy right now — and Jamal Murray is probable to play tonight despite a nagging calf injury. Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The 76ers are allowing their opponents to nail 48.9% of their shots — and the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. And while Philly only scores 107.5 Points-Per-Game, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are not scoring more than 108 PPG. The 76ers allowed the Bucks to make 49.4% of their shots which was actually their best defensive effort in their last four games. Their three previous opponents all made at least 53% of their shots against them. Philadelphia is banged up with Joel Embiid and Jared McCain out tonight with injuries — and Paul George is listed as questionable. Not having Embiid as a rim protector hurts the Sixers’ defensive efforts. In their last five games, their opponents are making 52.0% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season average. Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. And while the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +4.6 PPG, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +3.0 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (547) and the Chicago Bulls (548). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (9-28) has won two of their last three games after their 117-112 win at Utah as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (18-23) has lost three games in a row after their 110-94 upset loss against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hornets nailed 52.9% of their shots against the Jazz which was the best shooting effort in for them all season. They are only making 42.7% of their shots on the road this season — and they may be without Brandon Miller who is listed as questionable with a wrist injury. He is scoring 21.0 Points-Per-Game this year — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for their scoring especially if they do not have Miller tonight. Charlotte has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bulls are scoring 117.5 PPG — and the Hornets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 116 or more PPG. Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Hornets are looking to avenge a 115-108 loss at home against the Bulls on December 30th. Charlotte has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 10* NBA Friday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (547) and the Chicago Bulls (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (521) and the Los Angeles Clippers (522). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (14-26) snapped a five-game winning streak with a 132-114 victory at Portland as a 4-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (21-17) ended a two-game losing streak with a 109-98 victory against Miami as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets come off their best shooting performance of the season by making 54.4% of their shots last night against the Trail Blazers. Their 132 points was their second-highest mark of the season. Cam Johnson scored 24 points last night be he is out tonight with what is being labeled an ankle injury. He is scoring 19.6 Points-Per-Game. Cameron Thomas is also out with a hamstring after not playing last night — he is scoring 24.7 PPG. D’Angelo Russell and Nicolas Claxton are also questionable to play tonight. As it is, Brooklyn has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in back-to-back days. This is the Nets’ sixth game since last Monday — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for the sixth or more time in the last ten days. Los Angeles made 48.3% of their shots on Monday in their win against the Heat which was the best shooting mark in their last three games and second-best clip in their last seven contests. The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total after a win at home in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home against teams from the Eastern Conference. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (521) and the Los Angeles Clippers (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (559) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (560). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 114-110 upset loss as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Milwaukee (18-16) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 128-104 victory at Toronto as a 7-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks nailed 57.3% of their shots against the Raptors which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 contests. Milwaukee has been in a scoring slump as they had not made more than 46.4% of their shots in their previous four games despite their field goal percentage for the season being 47.6%. The Bucks have been in a funk since winning the NBA Cup — they have gone just 4-5 overall since beating Oklahoma City in the finals in Las Vegas. Head coach Doc Rivers has moved Khris Middleton to the bench. Much of Milwaukee’s malaise has been because of their inconsistency. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games at home after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 20 or more points. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Victor Wembanyama has probably already become an All-NBA first-team player in his second season in the league. His offensive skills continue to grow — and he is the best defensive player in the league. The Spurs are becoming an elite defensive team — in their last nine games, they rank third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and San Antonio has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (559) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (529) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (530). THE SITUATION: Miami (17-16) suffered their second-straight upset loss at home against Utah as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Sacramento (17-18) has won four games in a row after their 129-99 upset win at Golden State as a 3.5-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: In their first game since Jimmy Butler was suspended for publicly asking for a trade after President of Operations Pat Riley declared he was not on the market, the Miami players did not show up in an embarrassing 36-point loss against the lowly Jazz. They only made 43.8% of their shots which was the worst effort in their last five games. They also allowed Utah to nail 52.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. Head coach Erik Spoelstra should have his group refocused and ready to compete tonight as they begin a West Coast road trip. As it is, the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have played three straight Overs — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They begin this road trip after playing their last three games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after playing their last three games at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 road games against Western Conference opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Sacramento has won four games in a row under interim head coach Doug Christie after Mike Brown was fired on December 27th. They made 51.7% of their shots yesterday despite playing without De’Aron Fox out with a gluteus injury. He is doubtful to play tonight. Their recent run has been fortunate since three of their victories came against teams without their star players. They got Memphis without Ja Morant. They got Philadelphia without Joel Embiid. They got Dallas without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for the second time in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after beating a fellow Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a win against a divisional opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game. Sacramento returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to six points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games against teams from the Eastern Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has the additional motivation to avenge a 111-110 upset loss at home to the Kings as a 1-point underdog on November 4th. The underdog has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when they are on the road for these contests. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Miami Heat (529) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.