04-21-22 |
Mavs v. Jazz -7.5 |
|
126-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (50-34) looks to rebound from their 110-104 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (53-31) has won five of their last six games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah allowed the Mavericks to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Jazz have still held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage which has resulted in them giving up 99.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The extra day of rest should help Utah as they are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they have a 29-12 record with a net point differential of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. The Jazz are a scoring juggernaut at home where they make 48.0% of their shots and 36.4% of their 3-pointers which generates 116.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when playing for the second time in five days. Utah is also 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games on their home court. The Jazz do have a matchup problem on defense with the Mavericks’ small-ball lineup with five outside shooters since Rudy Gobert is not an effective perimeter defender. But the flip side of this coin is that Utah is dominating the glass in this series. Utah has won the rebounding battle by at least 19 boards in three straight games after out-rebounding Dallas by a 50-31 margin on Monday. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 57 games after out-rebounding three straight opponents by at least 10 boards. Luka Doncic has been upgraded to questionable to play tonight with his calf injury — but the reports this afternoon remained pessimistic that he would play. Even if Doncic plays, how effective he will be able to be with an injured calf remains a significant question. Without Doncic on Monday, the Mavericks stepped up to nail 22 of their 47 shots from behind the arc. Maxi Kleber made 8 of his 11 shots from 3-point range — despite making only 18% of his 3-pointers scene the All-Star break. Dallas makes only 34.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road so they are not likely to come close to replicating that performance. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season on the road with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. The Mavericks have also fueled to cover the point spread 3 of their last 4 playoff games when the series was tied.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves +2.5 |
|
104-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (48-37) looks to bounce back from their 124-96 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Memphis (57-27) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota only made 39.5% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 27 games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by double-digits. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Memphis shot 47.8% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 25 road games when playing for not more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Memphis is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* NBA Memphis-Minnesota TNT Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks -9.5 |
|
114-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-31) has won four of their last five games after their 93-86 victory as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (46-37) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee beat the Bulls by 7 points despite only making 40.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games. They only made 18.9% of their shots from behind the arc after the first quarter which is almost 50% below their 36.5% clip from 3-point range for the season. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games when leading in the series. Chicago played their best defensive game in their last 26 contests by holding Milwaukee to 40.5% shooting — but defense was a big problem for this team after injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Bulls allowed their opponents to score 117.9 points per 100 possessions which was the sixth-worst mark in the league. Chicago does have Caruso back — but they miss Ball. The Bulls also allow their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the regular season which was the worst mark in the NBA. Chicago double-teamed Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game One — but the Bucks did not punish them by nailing their 3s. Don’t be surprised if the Bucks respond to double-teams on the Greek Freak by scorching the nets from distance tonight. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has now lost 17 of their 18 games against the Bucks in the Antetokounmpo era — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Milwaukee. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-22 |
76ers v. Raptors +2.5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-22 |
Pelicans +10 v. Suns |
|
125-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-47) looks to rebound from their 110-99 loss on the road to the Suns in the opening game of this series on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Phoenix (65-18) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans was perhaps due for a clunker after surviving the Play-In Tournament last week. They only made 37.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 73 games. They missed 45 of their 72 shots from inside the arc. But this remains a team better than their record after starting the season by losing 13 of their first 14 games. The Pelicans slowly improved under rookie head coach Willie Green — and they were transformed after acquiring C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. Even after Sunday, New Orleans has a 14-6 record when McCollum and Brandon Ingram are healthy and on the court together. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games when playing their third game on the road in the last five days. There were two encouraging developments for New Orleans Sunday night. First, they dominated the boards against the Suns — they outrebounded them by a 55 to 35 margin with 25 second-chance opportunities on the offensive end of the court. New Orleans has out-rebounded their three postseason opponents by at least nine rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting out-rebounding their last three opponents by at least five rebounds. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road. Phoenix is great — but they will be quite content to win this game by one point. The question is whether or not they will cover the 10 or so points they are being asked to lay. Despite racing out to a 53-34 halftime lead and despite nailing 53.8% of their shots — the best shooting effort in their last six games, they only won Game One by 11 points. And that brings up the second encouraging aspect from Sunday night’s game: despite such a slow start and overall underwhelming effort, New Orleans was still around in the game before the Suns pulled away to cover the point spread late. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games when favored, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 60 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
96-124 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-22 |
Pelicans v. Suns -9.5 |
|
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should have a big edge in terms of energy tonight with the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest between games. And while the Suns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. After reaching the NBA Finals last year before losing to Milwaukee, Phoenix has covered the point in 13 of their last 18 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has won four of their last six games after their two victories this week in the Play-In Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Pelicans were favored and covered the point spread in both their Play-In games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games when favored. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks -10 |
|
86-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-31) had their three-game winning streak snapped on the final day of the regular season last Sunday in a 133-115 loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point underdog. Chicago (46-36) ended a four-game losing streak with a 124-120 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee rested their starters against the Cleveland in a soft-tank job to drop back to the third seed — and avoid the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs. The reigning NBA champions should be rested and ready for this contest. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Milwaukee is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Chicago may be due for a letdown because they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a poking spread victory. The Bulls started the season hot with a 27-11 record. Injuries and the cooling-off of DeMar DeRozan after a red hot start in a Bulls’ uniform contributed to the team only 19-25 the rest of the way — including an 8-15 mark since the All-Star break. Chicago does have Alex Caruso back after he missed much of the second half of the season to injury — but while he helps their cause on defense, they are still without Lonzo Ball who played an important role in slowing down their opponents before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bulls rank 25th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.5% of their shots last week which was the fifth time in their last six games that they have allowed an opponent to nail at least 50% of their shots from the field. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has dominated Chicago in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era with just one loss back in December of 2017 in their last 17 clashes. The average margin of victory for the Bucks this season in their four victories against the Bulls was +14.7 points — and they won their last two games against them by +24.5 PPG. 20* NBA Chicago-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-17-22 |
Hawks v. Heat -6.5 |
|
91-115 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-29) had their six-game winning streak snapped on the last day of the regular season last Sunday in a 125-111 upset loss at Orlando as a 7-point favorite. Atlanta (45-39) claimed the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs with their 107-101 win at Cleveland as a 2-point favorite in their Play-In game on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami is rested and fully healthy again with Bam Adebayo off the COVID list and P.J. Tucker recovered from the calf injury that kept him out of the final regular-season games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And while their loss to the Magic did not impact their playoff position (and they rested key players), they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Miami hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Miami is usually a reliable favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games in the playoffs when laying the points. Atlanta had to survive two must-win games in the Play-In Tournament this week — so they may be ripe for an emotional letdown after surviving that two-game gauntlet. As it is, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up victory. If there was a dark cloud in their win on the road against the Cavaliers on Friday, it was that Clint Capela suffered a knee injury that will keep him out this afternoon. With John Collins still out with a foot injury, Atlanta is very thin upfront. They are also without a spark-plug scorer off the bench in Lou Williams. While the Hawks have a 28-14 record at home, now they go back on the road where they are just 17-25. They score -3.0 PPG away from home versus their season average while shooting 45.9% from the field which is down from their 47.1% mark overall. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Miami to play the Heat. 20* NBA Atlanta-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-22 |
Nuggets v. Warriors -6.5 |
|
107-123 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (53-29) enters the postseason on a five-game winning streak after their 128-107 victory at New Orleans as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (48-34) has lost two of their last three games after a 146-141 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6-point favorite to end the regular season on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State expects Stephen Curry to rejoin the team tonight after he missed time with his foot injury. The Warriors were outscoring their opponents by 10 Points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court. He is scoring 25.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 6.3 Assists-Per-Game and 5.2 Rebounds-Per-Game. Remember, when Curry and Draymond Green were both healthy at the beginning of the season, the Golden State raced out to an 18-2 start — and they had the best record in the NBA on January 3rd. Injuries then hit this team with Curry and Green missing extended time — and they went 10-20 from February to March. But Klay Thompson has returned to the court and looked pretty good on April 2nd when he nailed 14 of 28 shots en route to 36 points against Utah. This will be the first time that the Big Three of Curry, Thompson, and Green will be playing together in the postseason in three years. Head coach Steve Kerr’s team has also seen the emergence of Jordan Poole with the former Michigan standout scoring 25.8 PPG with 6.2 Assists-Per-Game and 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game while nailing 37.4% of his shots from behind the arc since Curry went down with his injury in March. The Warriors should be fresh with the week off — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Golden State has also covered the points spread in 29 of their last 41 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Denver held the Lakers to just 46.8% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Nuggets have still allowed their opponents to score 118.1 points per 100 possessions in the last two weeks to end the regular season. Defense is a weakness of this team — they rank 19th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing their opponents to score 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Nikola Jokic is likely to win his second-straight Most Valuable Player award later this year — but the Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still on the shelf with injuries. This will be the first time that Nokic will battle against Green this season who did not play in the four regular-season meetings due to injury. In 18 career games defending Nokic, Green has held the superstar to just 15.7 PPG on 47.9% shooting from the field. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 20* NBA Denver-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
130-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Pelicans +4 v. Clippers |
|
105-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.
UPDATE: I released this play before the news this afternoon that Paul George is out for tonight with COVID. Obviously, if you are already down with New Orleans getting 3-4 points, this is fortuitous news. I still consider this a 10* play on the Pelicans even as a small road favorite against a Clippers team without George. I do not think New Orleans laying points against the Clippers without George is a stronger play (so do not recommend upgrading the investment).
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch the eighth seed in the Western Conference and the right to host the first play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer scored 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots in the regular season for his new team— and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. Against the Spurs, McCollum led the way with 32 points on 12 of 23 shooting while adding 7 assists and 6 rebounds. He offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 16 games together this season, they now won ten of those contests. Ingram scored 27 points on Wednesday. The Pelicans will be a tough out in this game even playing at Crytpo.com Arena. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles has Paul George back — but he is being asked to carry this team with Kawhi Leonard. We got a glimpse of the old self-proclaimed “Playoff P” on Wednesday with the Clippers getting outscored by a 31-20 margin to blow their 84-78 lead after the third quarter — and that all occurred despite Karl-Anthony Towns fouling out early in the final quarter. Los Angeles may win this game — but George was not dominant in clutch time against the Timberwolves. The Clippers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. They host this play-in game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 119-100 score — but the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 58 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-22 |
Spurs v. Pelicans -5 |
Top |
103-113 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-22 |
Hornets +6 v. Hawks |
|
103-132 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (43-39) has won three straight games after their 124-108 win against Washington as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (43-39) has won seven of their last nine contests with their 130-114 victory at Houston as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game plays at Cleveland on Friday to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte enters the playoffs playing perhaps their best basketball of the season. In their last 15 games, they rank second in the NBA in Net Rating. The emergence of P.J. Washington has given them an alternative strong lineup to make up for Gordon Hayward once again being on the shelf with an injury. The Hornets have closed out the regular season by winning 13 of their last 18 games despite Hayward being out with his injury. Charlotte is an elite scoring team that ranks sixth in the NBA by averaging 114.8 points per 100 minutes (non-garbage time) — and they have risen to second in the league in Offensive Rating in their last 15 games. Their 54.8% effective field goal percentage and their 37.0% mark from behind the arc both rank seventh in the league. The Hawks’ perimeter defense can be shaky — they rank 25th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to make 36.4% of their 3-pointers and they have allowed their opponents to nail 36.9% of these shots since the All-Star break. The Hornets have made at least 52.2% of their shots in each of their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southeast Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing their second game in five days. They have been reliable on the road where they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Charlotte is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games as an underdog. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots on Sunday against the Rockets which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with two days of rest. The Hawks are not at 100% for this game with John Collins still out with a foot injury — and Lou Williams has been declared out for tonight with a sore back. Even without Collins, Atlanta has out-rebounded their last two opponents by 16 and 10 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 rebounds.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte qualified for the Play-In Tournament last year where they got crushed by Indiana by 27 points. They should learn from that experience — and they won ten more games this season. Trae Young may carry the Hawks to the victory — but with the Hornets having three leaders on the court in LeMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier, they should keep this game close (if they don’t pull the upset). 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-22 |
Cavs +9.5 v. Nets |
|
108-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-38) snapped a three-game losing streak to conclude their regular season with a 133-115 victory against Milwaukee as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn (44-38) has won four in a row after their 134-126 victory against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Granted, Brooklyn has a 36-19 record with a healthy Kevin Durant — that is a 53-win pace which would have tied them with Miami for the top record in the Eastern Conference. And the Nets are 11-6 straight-up this season when Durant is playing with Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn is better than their record — and they have even stepped up their play on defense in the last two weeks where they rank 11th in Defensive Rating. But the most consistent thing about this team all season has been their inability to cover spreads. The market is overrated this team as they continue to wait for them to simply flip the switch — and this dynamic has not changed with Durant and Irving both available to play. The Nets are just 7-10 ATS in the 17 games these two stars have played together. At home in the Barclays Center, Brooklyn is an ugly 6-26-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 26 home games when favored. Irving did miss most of those games given his refusal to get a COVID vaccine — but since New York City lifted the vaccine requirement for city employees, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 home games with Irving on the court rather than smirking from the stands where the vaccine requirement did not extend. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after a point spread loss. This is a flawed roster after their Big Two with Ben Simmons and Joe Harris still our for this game. Cleveland is not the same team as they were earlier in the season given the injuries to Collin Sexton and Jarrett Allen. They have lost 17 of their last 26 games since the Allen injury who plays a crucial role in their defense. But this team still has two promising young players in Darius Garland and rookie Evan Mobley — and they have a rising head coach in J.B. Bickerstaff. The question is not “will the Cavaliers win this game?”, it is “will they keep it in single digits?” — and they are playing with house money with everyone discounting their chances. Even with a loss, Cleveland gets to host the Atlanta-Charlotte winner in the second Play-In game which gives them a back door to continue their postseason. They beat a Bucks team that was resting their starters — but the Cavaliers have still covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Having a healthy Mobley again who missed time in the last few weeks helps the Cleveland cause on defense. While Allen is important, the Cavaliers have a Defensive Rating of 108.9 with him off the court — and that would rank 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn’s offense is elite with Durant and Irving — but they have not been quite as prolific against top-ten defenses.
FINAL TAKE: The lone Nets point spread cover at home with Irving playing was against this Cleveland team in a 118-107 victory as an 8-point favorite on April 8th. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Cleveland-Brooklyn TNT Special with the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-22 |
Kings +15 v. Suns |
|
116-109 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-52) has lost three straight games after their 117-98 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog yesterday. Phoenix (64-17) has won two of their last three contests after a 110-105 upset win at Utah as a 3-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has the number one seed in the NBA playoffs locked up — so they have nothing to play for tonight. Head coach Monty Williams has confirmed that he is resting his key players — so Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Payne are not playing tonight. We played the Suns earlier this week under similar circumstances — but we were getting the points in that one. Phoenix as a double-digit favorite playing the backups is too much to ask — even against the Kings. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Sacramento had been playing pretty well for head coach Alvin Gentry playing out the string before this recent three-game slide. The Kings are now locked with the seventh-worst record in the league — so they might as well play hard tonight. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games playing without a day of rest. Gentry has been using these games in the final few weeks of the season to get as much playing time to their rookie Davion Mitchell who has validated their investment in a first-round pick in him. The Kings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have not covered the point spread in three straight games while allowing each of these opponents to make at least 48.8% of their shots. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 47% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings will have motivation to avenge a 127-124 loss at home to Phoenix on March 20th. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-22 |
Suns +6.5 v. Clippers |
|
109-113 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-16) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 121-110 victory at home against the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Los Angeles (39-40) has won three of their last four games after their 119-100 victory against New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a small value play on Phoenix as I think the market has overvalued the impact of the Suns’ potentially resting their starters tonight. The logic is this: since Phoenix has locked up the best record and top seed in the NBA, there is no reason for head coach Monty Williams to play his best players on the back end of games in back-to-back days. Maybe … probably. Although Williams rested his starters on Sunday in what ended up being a 117-96 loss at Oklahoma City as a 14.5-point favorite. Williams does not want his team to go on complete autopilot since flipping the switch may be easier said than done. And there was speculation that the starters would not play last night — but they did. I can see Williams playing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton for 25 or so minutes to keep them in rhythm against playoff-caliber competition. And I am comfortable with the B team led by Aaron Gordon and Bismack Biyombo — after opening as a 3-point road favorite, the market pushing the line to the Suns getting 6 or so points looks like an overreaction to me. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when getting the points. The thing is about the Clippers is that they have nothing to play for either — they are locked in the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They are just waiting to see who they will face in the Play-In Tournament. There is a desire to get Paul George minutes after being injured and on the shelf for months — but that does not mean it is likely he logs in 40 minutes tonight. They are also likely to still be without Norman Powell who is doubtful with an injury. Los Angeles held the Pelicans to just 40.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing with two days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing their second game in five days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-22 |
Warriors v. Kings +5.5 |
|
109-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-49) has won two straight games and four out of their last five after their 122-117 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Friday. Golden State (49-29) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-107 upset victory against Utah as a 2-point underdog yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento is closer to qualifying for the play-in game than they are to being one of the bottom-four teams in the league with more ping pong balls for the June NBA draft. They are only 3 1/2 games behind San Antonio for tenth place in the Western Conference while being 6 1/2 games above Oklahoma City in the bottom four. This team is playing hard for head coach Alvin Gentry — even without the injured De’Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis. Fox being out alongside the trading of Tyrese Halliburton to Indiana in the Sabonis deal has opened the for rookie Davion Mitchell to play plenty of minutes at guard for the Kings. The former Baylor star and first-round draft pick has responded by scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game and dishing out 8.7 Assists-Per-Game. Now after completing a five-game road trip, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Sacramento is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Golden State made 47.6% of their shots against the Jazz which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. Golden State remains without Steph Curry who is out with a knee injury. The Warriors score 114.9 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court while outscoring their opponents by +10.9 points per 100 possessions — but without Curry on the floor, they only score 104.9 points per 100 possessions while getting outscored by -3.7 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread 4 straight games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by up to six points. Additionally, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has won the last four meetings between these two teams after their 136-114 win against the Kings on February 3rd. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 meetings with the Kings — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Sacramento. The Kings have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-22 |
Hornets -3 v. Knicks |
Top |
125-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (39-37) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 113-109 loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (34-42) has won four games in a row with their 109-104 upset victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been playing well — despite that loss to the Nuggets. They have won seven of their last nine games and appear entrenched to at least qualify for the Play-In games for the postseason as they are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth spot by one game. After struggling to replace the injured Gordon Hayward’s contributions, they are getting solid across-the-board play from P.J. Washington. The former Kentucky star is scoring 11.3 Points-Per-Game this month while adding 4.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 3.1 Assists-Per-Game and making 35.4% of his shots from 3-point range. The Hornets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. Furthermore, Charlotte is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York is starting to play better now that they have likely buried their shot at making the playoffs. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference. In their upset victory against the Bulls, they held Chicago to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games, and tied for the best performance on that end of the court in their last ten contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Injuries remain an issue for this team. They are without Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker with the latter put on the shelf because he does not fit head coach Tom Thibodeau’s plans. Nerlens Noel and Quentin Grimes are both out tonight with injuries — and Evan Fournier is questionable for reasons listed as “personal”. This team is going nowhere this year — and taking some days off down the stretch as they softly tank appears likely. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be motivated to avenge a 121-106 loss at home to the Knicks on March 23rd. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-22 |
Hawks v. Pistons +5 |
Top |
101-122 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). THE SITUATION: Detroit (19-53) has lost six of their last seven games with their 119-115 upset loss to Portland as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (36-36) comes off a 117-111 win in New York last night against the Knicks as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit may be eliminated from the playoff race in the Eastern Conference — but they have been playing better basketball as of late with the continued development of Cade Cunningham. The number one pick in the 2021 NBA draft had a loss start to the season after a late start to training camp after a delay in signing in his contract. Some injuries in the fall then impacted his adjustment to the challenge of the NBA — but the former Oklahoma State star is finding his groove. Cunningham is scoring 22.4 Points-Per-Game this month while pulling down 7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and dishing out 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. Their loss to the Trail Blazers was their second-straight game and third of their last four that was decided by four points or less — so this team has usually been competitive in their losses. The Pistons made only 42.4% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. But Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games in March. Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played without a day of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing their second game in back-to-back days. Atlanta will play this game undermanned with John Collins out with a foot injury and Lou Williams likely not playing because of personal reasons. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit won the last meeting between these two teams on March 7th by a 113-110 score in overtime as a 7.5-point home underdog. Cunningham starred in that game by scoring 28 points for the Pistons in the win while adding 10 rebounds. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against Detroit. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks -7.5 |
Top |
98-126 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (44-27) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 138-119 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (42-29) ended their three-game losing streak with a 113-99 win against Toronto as a 4-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Timberwolves to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Chicago made 48.9% of their shots in their victory against the Raptors yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Toronto to 44.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Bulls are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton tonight as he nurses an ankle injury — but the Bulls are undermanned in this contest as well. Lonzo Ball remains out and Zach LaVine is questionable with a knee injury. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Month is on Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-22 |
Raptors +6.5 v. 76ers |
|
93-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (39-31) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 128-123 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9-point favorite. Philadelphia (43-26) has won two games in a row with their 111-101 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The 76ers may choose to rest Joel Embiid tonight with a showdown with Miami Heat looming tomorrow. He is listed as questionable. If Embiid does not play, this Philly team lacks size. Even with Embiid playing normal minutes, the trading away of Andre Drummond has left their second unit lacking a big man when Embiid is off the court — and it has contributed to James Harden running with the second unit not being very effective. Even if Embiid plays tonight, Toronto should stay competitive. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored. The Sixers are also just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Toronto has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are 24-13 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will not have Fred VanVleet tonight — but they have depth and that is the reason they are getting up to eight points in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have posted a Net Efficiency Rating of +6.1 in their last six games. Philly has a Net Efficiency Rating of -0.3 despite winning four of their last six games. The losses of Drummond and Seth Curry in the trade for Harden should not be discounted. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-22 |
Mavs -1.5 v. Nets |
|
113-111 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (535) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (536). THE SITUATION: Dallas (42-26) has won two games in a row after their 95-92 loss at Boston as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (36-33) has won four games in a row with their 150-108 blowout victory at Orlando as a 10-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games after winning two games in a row on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after winning two of their last three games. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game. Dallas is a reliable road team that has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games when favored by up to six points. Dallas is a dangerous team now that Luka Doncic has regained his basketball shape after not being in top fitness coming back from the offseason. The addition of Spencer Dinwiddie gave this group a quality third scoring option alongside Jalen Brunson and Doncic. But the biggest difference with this team this season has been the influence of first-year head coach Jason Kidd with the team’s effort on the defensive end of the court. The Mavericks rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Brooklyn shot 60.2% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 62 games. Kyrie Irving went off for 60 points as he played like a man knowing that he would get the next night off since he chose not to get vaccinated despite being employed by a city that requires a COVID vaccine for their employees. So the Nets do not get Irving on the court — but he will probably showboat in the crowd which does not require vaccinations. He can’t help his teammates from the crowd — and Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by double-digits on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games with Kevin Durant back in the fold, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. With Irving on the court, Brooklyn has a dynamite Offensive Rating of 119.3 — but that number drops to just 109.9 when he is not on the court. The Nets’ attention to defense on the other end of the court is not consistent as they rank just 24th in Defensive Rating since the All-Star Break. Now Brooklyn returns home where they have failed to cover the point in 10 straight games after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 31 games at the Barclays Center this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. And in their last 7 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 7th when the Nets won by a 102-99 score — but the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 opportunities for same-season revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-Brooklyn ESPN Special with the Dallas Mavericks (535) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-22 |
Nuggets +3.5 v. 76ers |
|
114-110 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (505) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (506). THE SITUATION: Denver (40-22) has lost two games in a row after their 127-115- loss to Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Philadelphia (41-25) has won two of their last three games after their 116-114 victory in overtime at Orlando as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver should bounce back with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss as a home favorite. The Nuggets have lost two games in a row by double-digits after dropping their previous contest to Golden State by a 113-102 score. Denver has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This team continues to get by without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. although the hope is that both will return from injury in time of the playoffs. But Denver has a great head coach in Michael Malone — and with Nikola Jokic at center, they remain competitive against every team in the league. Jokic is scoring 26.1 Points-Per-Game on 57.3% shooting this season — and he is averaging 13.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 8.1 Assists-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 220-229.5 point range. Philadelphia only made 38.0% of their shots last night against the Magic — but that was still the second-best shooting effort in their last four games. The 76ers gave failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after playing their last game Over the Total. Philly now has their Big Three with James Harden joining Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris — yet they are just 4-4 ATS in their eight games since the blockbuster trade. While Ben Simmons was not offering anything to them this season, losing Seth Curry and Andre Drummond should not be underestimated. The 76ers’ 3-point shooting is down without Curry knocking down shots — they are now just 11th with a 35.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc since the All-Star Break. And the second unit with Harden leading the way has not been effective. Interior defense with the second unit is a big problem where Drummond had been spelling Embiid. The 76ers are not a good defensive team either — this is where the loss of Simmons from past seasons really is felt. In their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Denver is looking to avenge a 103-89 upset loss at home to the Sixers as a 7.5-point favorite on November 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Denver-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (505) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-22 |
Pacers v. Hawks -12 |
|
128-131 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (574) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (573). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-34) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 112-106 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Indiana (23-45) had their three-game losing streak snapped with a 119-108 win at San Antonio as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home after winning on their home court in their last game. And while the Hawks have not covered the point spread in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home after not covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Atlanta is reliable at home — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on their home court and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by double-digits. Indiana may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. The Pacers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta won the last meeting between these two teams by a 133-112 score on February 8th — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road where they lost by double-digits. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Hawks (574) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-22 |
Raptors +5 v. Cavs |
|
96-104 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (555) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (556). THE SITUATION: Toronto (34-29) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests after their 103-97 loss to Orlando as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (36-27) has lost three in a row and six of their last seven after a 125-119 loss at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto is undermanned coming into this game with O.G. Anunoby still out and now Fred VanVleet declared out for this contest with his knee injury — but they still have Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent, Jr. along with one of the best coaches in the business in Nick Nurse. The Raptors only made 39.8% of their shots against the Magic which was the worst shooting percentage in their last seven games. Toronto has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Cleveland is dealing with injuries as well with Caris LeVert expected to miss his seventh straight game with los foot injury and Rajon Rondo being out with a toe. The Cavaliers’ recent slide has coincided with being without LeVert — they are thin in their backcourt missing LeVert and Rondo at this point of the season. They did nail 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 27 games. But Cleveland has taken a step or two back on the defensive end of the court as of late — after the 76ers made 54.7% of their shots on Friday, they have let their last three opponents shoot at least 50.6% from the field. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing their last three opponents each shoot at least 47% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing three straight opponents shoot at least 50% from the field. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after losing at leas three games in a row. The Cavs host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games overall.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will remember getting shellacked by the Cavaliers by a 144-99 score in Cleveland in their last meeting on December 26th. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Toronto-Cleveland ESPN Special with the Toronto Raptors (555) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-22 |
Spurs +4 v. Hornets |
|
117-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (535) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (536). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (24-39) has lost three games in a row after their 115-112 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday. Charlotte (31-33) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 119-98 upset win at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets may be due for an emotional letdown tonight after pulling off an upset win. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory. This team really missed Gordon Hayward who provides the foundation for this team that helps LeMelo Ball and Miles Bridge thrive. The Hornets have lost 11 of their 16 games since Hayward was injured — and they have only won three of their sixteen games since the beginning of February. Charlotte will be undermanned with James Bouknight and Jalen McDaniels out tonight. The Hornets return home where they are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Charlotte has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. San Antonio’s win-loss record is underachieving what their win probability suggests. They are completely healthy for this one with Romeo Langford and Lonnie Walker upgraded to probable for this contest. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when playing their second game in five days. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 49 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. San Antonio has struggled against good teams — they have a 9-20 record against teams with winning records. But in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record, they are 7-1-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 131-115 loss at home to Charlotte on December 15th where they were 3.5-point home favorites — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (535) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls +5.5 |
|
118-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-24) has lost three games in a row after their 130-124 upset loss as a 1.5-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (38-25) has won their last two games with their 120-119 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: After eking out their showdown against the Heat on Wednesday, the reigning NBA champions may be due for a letdown on the road tonight. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 road games after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Bucks are playing at a fast pace right now which has helped them score at least 120 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 120 points in at least three straight contests. But this increased tempo has come at the expense of their discipline on defense as they have allowed these last five opponents to make 46.4% of their shots which has resulted in 118.6 Points-Per-Game. In their last seven games, Milwaukee has a Defensive Rating of 28th in the league — far below their 13th Defensive Rating for the season. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago allowed the Hawks to make 52.4% of their shots last night which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last nine games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss by six points or less — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Chicago is playing without rest tonight — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games playing the second game in back-to-back days. And while their five starters combined to play over 164 minutes last night, they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their starters logged in at least 160 combined minutes the day before. The Bulls have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is not at full strength with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso both on the shelf — but Zack LaVine has returned to action. Head coach Billy Donovan may limit LaVine’s minutes tonight to rest his knee — but he is not on the injury report this evening. Rookie Ayo Dosunmu has stepped up after these injuries — and the team still has DeMar DeRozan who has been playing at an MVP level and recently scored at least 30 points in ten straight contests. The Bucks are injured as well with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton out — and their depth may be further challenged with George Hill questionable with a neck injury. The rap on the Bulls is that they fold versus the best teams in the league — but they are 5-5 ATS in their ten games this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games versus teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-22 |
Raptors -3.5 v. Nets |
|
133-97 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). THE SITUATION: Toronto (32-27) has lost two straight and four of their last five games after a 127-100 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (32-29) ended their two-straight losing streak with their 126-123 victory as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto played one of their worst games of the season against the Hawks. They only made 40.0% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Raptors allowed Atlanta to make 57.8% field goal percentage which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last Toronto has also bounced back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 11 games after a point spread loss, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 9 of these contests. Toronto has not been competitive in their last two games as they began the weekend with a 125-93 loss in Charlotte. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after losing two straight games by 15 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when favored in all situations. Toronto will be undermanned tonight with O.G. Anunoby out with a finger injury and Fred VanVleet questionable with a knee injury — but they still have Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent, Jr. to lead the team for head coach Nick Nurse. They face a seriously depleted Nets team that will be without the injured Kevin Durant and Joe Harris along with Kyrie Irving ineligible to play in New York for another few days due to the vaccination requirements and Ben Simmons still not ready to take the court. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 8 straight games at home after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Back at home in the Barclays Center, the Nets are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as an underdog. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Nets rank just 21st in the NBA this month by scoring 108.7 points per 100 possessions — and they have been even worse on defense by ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing 118 points per 100 possession this month.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and Toronto has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against winning teams. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-22 |
Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
107-101 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Dallas (35-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 114-109 loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (43-17) ended their two-game losing streak with a 132-95 win at Portland as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The silver lining from Dallas’ loss on Friday was the play of their recent acquisitions in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and Davis Bertrans nailed five of his eight shots from behind the arc for 17 points. These two players give head coach Jason Kidd the potential for a much-needed scoring punch off the bench to help out Luka Doncic. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have been very reliable road warriors against good teams with Doncic — they are 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also held the Trail Blazers to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit win. Golden State is undermanned tonight with Klay Thompson out with an illness and Andre Iguodala out with a sore back. They remain without Draymond Green who is recovering from a calf injury. The Warriors’ elite defense drop to 11th in the league since the Green injury. And while the Mavericks rank a surprising fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season under Kidd, Golden State’s offense ranks just 22nd in the league when facing a top-ten defense. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 130-92 loss to the Warriors on January 25th. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 opportunities at same-season revenge. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Golden State. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-22 |
76ers +7 v. Bucks |
|
123-120 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (565) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (566). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (34-23) looks to rebound from an embarrassing 135-87 loss to Boston as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (31-23) has won five of their last seven games with their 128-119 win against Indiana as a 14-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia may have played their worst game of the season on Tuesday. Their 28.7% field goal percentage was their lowest of the year. And the 56.1% shooting percentage they allowed the Celtics to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 43 games. Depth is an issue for this team right now after trading away Seth Curry and Andre Drummond but still await James Harden’s debut with the team as he nurses his hamstring injury. But the Sixers still have Joel Embiid along with Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey who can keep them competitive in this game. And if there is one silver lining from a 48-point loss, it is that their star players did not log in heavy minutes. Head coach Doc Rivers played Embiid for less than 27 minutes and Harris less than 28 minutes against the Celtics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. The 76ers are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they have cord the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog. Milwaukee nailed 55.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 39 contests. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Milwaukee has its own depth issues right now with many of their rotational players injured right now including Wesley Matthews, Brook Lopez, and George Hill. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the 76ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or greater. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (565) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-06-22 |
Bucks v. Clippers +4.5 |
|
137-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (556) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (555). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-27) has won four of their last six games after their 111-110 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (33-21) has won six of their last eight games after their 137-108 victory at Portland as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Ty Lue is performing one of the best coaching jobs in the NBA this season getting the most of out his roster despite missing Kawhi Leonard all season and Paul George for over half the season. The team improved their roster at least in the short term with their trade with Portland on Sunday. Los Angeles acquired Norman Powell and Robert Covington for Eric Bledsoe, Keon Johnson, and Justice Winslow. Bledsoe has underperformed this season while Johnson and Winslow are benchwarmers — so getting Powell into the mix is an upgrade while Covington is a veteran who might play better in the new environment as a 3-and-D rotational player. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as a dog getting up to six points. Milwaukee made 53.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 16 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. And in their last 7 games played without rest, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 13 games when favored, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Clippers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 trips to Los Angeles to play the Clippers. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (556) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-22 |
Hornets +6.5 v. Celtics |
|
107-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (28-23) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 115-90 upset loss against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (27-25) has won four of their last five games with their 122-92 win against Miami as a 6-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte made only 32.7% of their shots on Sunday in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. And the 52.4% shooting they allowed the Lakers to enjoy was tied for the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. The Hornets should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a double-digit setback. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when playing just for the second time in the last five days. Charlotte goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Boston is just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics are also just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. And while Boston has held their last two opponents to just 97 and 92 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. The Celtics return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New York will be motivated to avenge a 111-102 upset loss at home to the Hornets on January 19th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-22 |
Bulls v. Spurs -1.5 |
|
122-131 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (568) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bulls (567). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-31) has lost three of their last four games with their 118-110 loss to Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Chicago (30-17) has won two in a row with their 111-105 victory against Toronto as a 3.6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Spurs let up on defense against the Grizzlies as they allowed them to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. San Antonio is still holding their last five opponents to just 45.3% shooting. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bulls made 54.8% of their shots against the Raptors which was the best shooting performance in their last 15 games. But Chicago is undermanned missing two of their best players in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Ball is out with a knee injury while Caruso is dealing with a wrist injury. Chicago has seen a decline in their play on the defensive end of the court. Eight of their last 13 opponents have shot at least 50% from the field against them. They rank 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency during that 13-game span. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and San Antonio has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when favored. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (568) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bulls (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-21-22 |
Nets v. Spurs |
|
117-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (548) minus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (547). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (17-28) has won two of their last three games after their 118-96 victory against Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Brooklyn (28-16) has won two of their last three games with their 119-118 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Antonio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 games this season after beating their last opponent by 20 or more points. They stay at home after a rough road trip where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. San Antonio does not have a great record against winning teams — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Brooklyn continues to be without Kevin Durant who is out indefinitely with his knee injury. The Nets may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. And while their win against the Wizards finished Over the 234 point total, the Nets have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Moving forward, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in January. The Nets are lacking size tonight with Paul Millsap missing the game for personal reasons and Nicolas Claxton doubtful with a hamstring joining Durant on the bench.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge their 121-119 loss in Brooklyn as a 9.5-point favorite on January 9th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road including ten of these fourteen circumstances this season. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 trips to San Antonio to play the Spurs. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with San Antonio Spurs (548) minus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-15-22 |
Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks |
|
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (519) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (520). THE SITUATION: Toronto (20-19) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 103-87 loss at Detroit as a 9-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (27-17) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 118-89 victory against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto should respond with strong effort after last night’s disappointing effort. They made only 32.2% of their shots against the Pistons which was the worst shooting effort since the opening game of the season 38 games ago. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Toronto has also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, the Raptors have covered the point spread in all 5 games. Toronto stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as an underdog. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Toronto comes in undermanned with Scottie Barnes out and Gary Trent questionable — but Fred VanVleet is playing at an All-Star level right now and O.G. Anunoby is back in the mix to complement Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher for their core group. Milwaukee comes off one of the best games of their season. They made 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They held the Warriors to 34.7% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 36 contests. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up victory. Milwaukee stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. The Bucks are dealing with injuries as well with Brook Lopez out since November and Jrue Holiday unavailable with an ankle injury.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won the first two meetings between these two teams after upsetting the Bucks in Milwaukee by a 117-111 score on January 5th as a 3-point underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in Toronto. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Toronto Raptors (519) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Pistons v. Hornets -10 |
|
111-140 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (19-19) has lost two straight games after their 124-121 loss at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Detroit (7-28) has won two straight games after their 115-106 upset win at Milwaukee as a 16-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-5 this season with a 116.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average from a 47.8% field goal percentage. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Charlotte is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when favored. And in their last 52 games against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games, the Hornets are 38-13-1 ATS. Detroit has pulled off two straight upset wins as they stunned San Antonio at home by a 117-116 score as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. But the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against a Central Division rival. Additionally, Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road for the fifth time in their last seven games where they have just a 3-15 record. They are allowing their home hosts to score 112.5 PPG on 48.2% shooting — and they are getting outscored by -11.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are missing several players. Jeramy Grant is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and Isaiah Livers is out with a foot injury. Isaiah Stewart and Cory Joseph will not play as they rebuild their conditioning after testing positive for COVID. Charlotte is pretty healthy with point guard P.J. Washington upgraded to probable in his return from COVID. Vernon Carey is out as he works on his conditioning and Scottie Lewis is questionable to return. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Hornets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Charlotte. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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