09-14-20 |
Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45 |
|
26-16 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season last year. New York (0-0) looks to build off a 4-12 campaign last season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are optimistic that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be rejuvenated coming off elbow surgery after an injury that caused him to miss fourteen games last year. Fingers are crossed for the 38-year old but, like with Tom Brady yesterday, perhaps he is another quarterback who would have benefitted from the five to eight offensive series that a few preseason games would have provided him. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike Tomlin is likely to continue to lean on his outstanding defense especially when playing away from Heinz Field. The Steelers have played 39 of their last 52 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Pittsburgh was 5th in the league last year by allowing just 18.9 PPG — and they ranked 3rd best in the NFL by allowing only 194.6 passing YPG. The Steelers dialed-up 54 sacks last season while forcing 38 takeaways which is not good news for the second-year quarterback they will be facing. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number set in 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing seven straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in that range. New York is hopeful that Daniel Jones takes the next step at quarterback after his rookie campaign. His backers are encouraged by the three four-touchdown passing games he produced in the second half of the season. But remember that those contests were against Detroit, the NY Jets, and Washington with defenses that are far cries than what he will face tonight. He will be operating under a new system under rookie head coach Joe Judge who hired Jason Garrett as his offensive coordinator. Jones could use a full preseason to get comfortable with the Garrett game plan. The Giants also have a reshuffled offensive line after Nate Solder opted-out from playing this year. New York drafted Andrew Thomas in the first round while adding center Nick Gates and right tackle Cam Fleming — but there will be growing pains for this unit as they develop cohesion together. The offensive game plan will likely be to rely on star running back Saquon Barkley — but he averaged just 55.7 rushing YPG last year against top-ten defenses as compared to his 90.5 rushing YPG average against the rest of the NFL.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. While those four games were under the Pat Shurmer regime, Judge comes from New England so I do not expect him to suddenly roll out the Air Raid offense in this situation. Expect the Giants to try to run the ball with Barkley as long as they can stay competitive in this game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-20 |
Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 52 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-20 |
49ers v. Chiefs OVER 53.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
93 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).
|
01-19-20 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 45 |
|
20-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (311) and the San Francisco 49ers (312). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory at home. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Green Bay has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning at least six straight games. The Packers surrendered 375 yards to the Seahawks in the victory — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has a mediocre defense that has been protected by their commitment to running the football. The Packers rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 352.8 total YPG while the analytics used by Football Outsiders rank their defense 15th in the league in DVOA. Green Bay now goes on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 straight games Over the Total in January. The Packers have seen an uptick in their productivity on offense as of late as they have scored 24.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 386.3 total YPG. San Francisco has scored 29.0 PPG over their last three games which is right in line with their 29.9 PPG scoring average this season which is 2nd best in the league. The 49ers raise that mark to 31.8 PPG in their nine games at home this season. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 10 games against teams from the NFC, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Niners.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 37-8 victory over the Packers by a 37-8 score. Green Bay could not stop the San Francisco offense in that game with the Niners averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play. But Aaron Rodgers may have played his worst game of the season as eh managed only 104 passing yards with the Packers averaging a mere 2.8 YPP. Look for Green Bay’s offense to be much more effective in this rematch in what should be a higher scoring game. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-20 |
Titans v. Chiefs OVER 51 |
Top |
24-35 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.
THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-20 |
Clemson v. LSU UNDER 70 |
Top |
25-42 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offenses are getting all the headlines — and most of the bettor’s attention with the Total approaching the 70 threshold — yet I think both defenses of these teams are being under-appreciated. Clemson surrendered 516 yards of offense to Ohio State but it was their ability thwart three Red Zone trips by the Buckeyes in the first half of that showdown which kept the Tigers in that game. After giving up 16 points in the first 22:20 minutes of that game, the Tigers only gave up one final touchdown over the remaining 37:40 minutes of that game. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venerable is one of the best in the business — keep in mind his ability to make in-game adjustments if LSU racks up the points early in this game. In the Tigers’ last three Championship Games (all with Venerable), Clemson allowed only 7 combined points in the second half while registering nine combined sacks. On paper, this may be a better statistical defense this season than the one that limited Tua Tagovailoa and a potent Alabama offense to just 16 points in last year’s National Championship Game. Last year’s Tigers’ defense allowed touchdowns in 10.8% of their opponent’s possessions while forcing turnovers in 12.1% of their opponent’s possessions and allowing 29.6% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The 2019 Clemson defense improved on all those numbers against a comparable schedule: they held their opponents to TD drives in just 8.0% of their possessions while forcing a turnover in 18.0% of their drives while allowing only 26.4% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The Tigers led the country by allowing their opponents to -152 YPG below their season average. LSU will offer a stiff challenge with them averaging 397.2 passing YPG with a 10.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Clemson has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 8.0 YPA and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. The extra week to prepare for this game should help Venable as well as they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total with at least two weeks to prepare including seven straight Unders. Clemson has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +17.0 PPG. LSU is outscoring its opponents by +27.8 PPG after their blowout victory over the Sooners. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda devised a scheme that limited the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 322 yards of offense. It was key plays early in that game that stalled the Sooners’ offense which put them behind the eight-ball versus the Joe Burrow-Tigers offense. LSU held its last four opponents to 270 total YPG. Even better, after taking out that fourth game against Arkansas, the Tigers held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG along with only 259.0 total YPG against three above-average offenses in Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. LSU did generate 692 total yards against a depleted Oklahoma defense — but they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as a favorite. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games in a dome Under the Total. While the field conditions help the speed of the offenses, it also helps the speed of the defenses. It does not take many Red Zone stops to keep the scoring below the number when it is approaching the 70 point range. Try to wait in placing this bet since I suspect the number will keep being pushed up by the betting public. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-20 |
Seahawks v. Packers OVER 45 |
Top |
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-20 |
Texans v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 |
|
31-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston generated 360 yards of offense against the Bills’ defense last week — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But the Texans also surrendered 425 yards in that contest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are allowing 410.2 total YPG. The Texans have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight games at home. Kansas City has won its last three games by at least 10 points with them being favored in all three contests. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row by double-digits — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight contests. Kansas City got their ground game going against the Chargers by rushing for 162 yards — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL by averaging 28.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG — and Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Houston-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-20 |
Titans v. Ravens OVER 47 |
Top |
28-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-20 |
Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 |
|
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. The Vikings have allowed at least 20 points in three straight games so being competitive will likely require them scoring into the 20s as well in this game. Minnesota does average 26.4 PPG on the road while averaging 374.2 YPG in those nine contests. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. QB Kirk Cousins should certainly be bursting with confidence after leading his team to a playoff victory with a winning overtime touchdown drive that thwarted the Saints' ability to get Drew Brees back on the field. Now they face a Niners team that is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +10.0 PPG. And while the 49ers average 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing attack, Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against opponents that average at least 7.5 YPA. San Francisco generated 398 yards two weeks ago in their victory over the Seahawks — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the 49ers have scored 60 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after they scored at least 25 points in two straight games. San Francisco has also played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Niners did activate linebacker Kwon Alexander this week after he has been out with a chest injury. They had been holding their opponents to only 11 PPG in their first seven games before that injury — but they have allowed at least 25 points in six of their last nine games without him. It remains unclear how effective Alexander will be in his return with head coach Kyle Shanahan indicating that he will not be asked to embark in full-time duty for this game. San Francisco has allowed its last three opponents to score 27.0 PPG while averaging 344.3 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home — and the Over is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, San Francisco has played 8 of these games Over the Total. 10* NFL Minnesota-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-20 |
Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a pint spread victory. Miami (OH) has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the RedHawks have only forced one turnover in each of their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Miami has a better defense than their numbers suggest — those statistics are skewed a bit from a difficult non-conference schedule that included road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks will look to run the ball to control the Time of Possession — they averaged 38 rushing attempts per game while running on over 63% of their offensive snaps. But Miami averages only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking just 122nd in the nation by averaging 305.9 total YPG. The RedHawks average -84 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a good defense that allowed only 19.9 PPG which was 20th best in the nation. It will be particularly difficult for freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert to throw on the Lafayette defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing just 193.8 passing YPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Lafayette did generate 513 yards of offense in their loss to the Mountaineers — but they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games — but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. Lafayette has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. With the RedHawks scoring only 18.5 PPG when away from home, they will only need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns offense a bit to keep this game below the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-20 |
Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 46 |
|
17-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-21 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 52 of their last 74 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philly is riddled with injuries at wide receiver and their offensive line — and they will be without their best linemen in Lane Johnson for this game along with guard Brandon Books who was put onto Injured Reserve earlier this week. The Eagles have resorted to sinking-and-dunking their way to manufacture yardage - but this should be a bit easier to prepare for in the playoffs given the structural weaknesses of this Philadelphia offense at this points. The Eagles are scoring only 21.0 PPG — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as the dog. Additionally, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. Pete Carroll’s teams have also played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total after aa narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also marred by injuries to their offense with their top three running backs out the season along with their best offensive lineman in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has scored only 21.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG which is -4.0 PPG and -41.1 YPG below their season average. The Seahawks have started slow in their last two games as well — they trailed by a 17-7 score at home to Arizona two weeks ago before failing to score in the first half last week to the 49ers. Carroll’s teams have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a favorite. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when laying the points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a November 24th meeting between these two teams in Philadelphia where the Seahawks won by a 17-9 score in windy conditions. It will be windy in this game as well which limited Wilson’s deep passing game the first time around. These two teams have now played 4 straight Unders. 10* NFL Seattle-Philadelphia NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-20 |
Vikings v. Saints OVER 47 |
Top |
26-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-04-20 |
Titans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite. New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The fortunes of this Tennessee team changed in Week Seven when head coach Matt Vrabel turned to Ryan Tannehill as his starting quarterback. Since that game, Tannehill has led an offense that averages 6.94 Yards-Per-Play which is best in the NFL over that span. The Titans also averaged 406.2 total YPG since Tannehill became the starting quarterback which was 3rd best in the league. Tannehill’s Passer Rating of 117.5 leads the NFL. Tennessee stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Titans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. New England surrendered 389 yards to the Dolphins in their losing effort last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have allowed 324.0 total YPG over their last three games which is +49.1 net YPG above their season average. New England has also scored a healthy 27.3 PPG over their last three games. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. Moving forward, New England has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 9 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC foes. Additionally, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Foxborough. 10* NFL Tennessee-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-04-20 |
Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 |
Top |
19-22 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-20 |
Michigan v. Alabama OVER 60 |
|
16-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 56-27 loss at home to Ohio State as a 9-point underdog. Alabama (10-2) looks to rebound from their 48-45 upset loss at Auburn as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines may have a defense ranked 7th in the nation by allowing just 292.8 total YPG but they were exposed by the Buckeyes who torched them for 577 yards of offense. Michigan has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This Michigan offense did begin to click in the second half of their game at Penn State under first-year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The Wolverines have scored 36.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 438.7 total YPG which is +36.6 YPG above their season average. Michigan has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Alabama generated 515 yards of offense in their loss to the Tigers with quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 39 passes for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and another 32 yards rushing. Frankly, the Tide should have defeated Auburn that day (our CFB Game of the Year, dammit) with a comedy of officiating errors, fluke plays and two defensive touchdowns by the Tigers all playing crucial roles in the loss. This Alabama remains loaded even without Tua Tagovailoa healthy — Jones led this offense just fine. The Over is 8-3-1 in the Tide’s last 12 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Alabama has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in the Tide’s last 30 games played on a neutral field as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has played 7 of their last 8 bowl games Over the Total. Michigan has played 4 straight bowl games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Wyoming UNDER 49 |
Top |
17-38 |
Loss |
-119 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Georgia State did not commit a turnover in their loss to the Eagles, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the total after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Panthers’ offense slowed down after the injury to quarterback Dan Ellington during the ninth game of the season. He had rushed for 603 yards through the first-half of that game against Louisiana-Monroe before suffering what turned out to be a torn ACL. In his last three starts, Ellington rushed for -5 yards overall which dramatically impacted the Georgia State offense as they averaged only 157 rushing YPG over their last final three games which was a far cry from their 275 rushing YPG before his injury. Over their last three games, the Panthers scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging just 332.7 total YPG with both those numbers -10.7 PPG and -112.2 total YPG below their season average. Georgia State also scored only 25.7 PPG while averaging 401.5 total YPG away from home which was -6.7 PPG and -45.4 YPG below their season average. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Georgia State has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Panthers will have difficulties moving the ball against this Cowboys defense the ranks 11th in the nation by allowing only 17.8 PPG. Wyoming has an outstanding run defense that allows only 99.4 rushing YPG which is 6th in the FBS. They held their opponents to -73 YPG below their season average on offense this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 330.7 YPG. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games after a loss — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG. They managed just 225 yards of offense between Vander Waal and Williams against the Falcons — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming’s main source of offense will be behind running back Xavavian Valladay who rushed for 1061 yards this season. Between Valladay’s running and the Cowboys’ defense, this game should move quickly. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wyoming’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-19 |
Virginia v. Florida OVER 54 |
Top |
28-36 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This is potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. The problem for this Cavs team has been the deterioration of their play on defense. Virginia allowed only 281 total YPG in their first eight games — but injuries contributed to them surrendering 481 YPG over their last final five contests. The Cavaliers lost two starters in their secondary, senior cornerback Bryce Hall and junior safety Brenton Nelson, to season-ending injuries. Clemson racked up 619 yards of offense against Virginia with 211 of those yards coming on the ground. The Cavaliers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last three games, Virginia has allowed 39.7 PPG along with 498.0 total YPG. The Cavs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in bowl games. Florida has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Gators held the Seminoles to just 250 yards of offense in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. The Florida offense saw a season-ending injury early on to incumbent quarterback Feleipe Franks but the offense raised their level of play under the direction of junior Kyle Trask who threw 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in his eleven games. Over their last three games, the Gators scored 39.7 PPG while averaging 471.0 total YPG. They outgained Florida State by +217 net yards on the heels of outgaining Missouri by +130 net yards — and not only have they then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators ranked 9th in the nation by allowing just 299.0 total YPG — but that number skyrocketed by +78.8 net YPG in their six games on the road. Florida has played 4 straight games Over the Total in December. 25* CFB New Year’s Day Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
49ers v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 |
|
26-21 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night. Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. With the stakes so high, expect a shootout between two teams that have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. San Francisco has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have also played three straight Overs with all three games seeing at least 51 combined points scored — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco surrendered 395 total yards to the Rams last week with 323 of those yards coming in the air. The 49ers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West opponents, San Francisco has played all 4 games Over the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against NFC West foes. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. Frankly, the only way that Seattle can stay competitive in this game is in a higher-scoring game given the sorry state of their defense. The Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL by allowing 380.5 total YPG — and they allow their visitors to score 29.0 PPG while seeing them average 385.0 total YPG. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed their opponents to score 26.3 PPG while generating 427.0 total YPG. The Cardinals gained 412 yards against them last week in the rematch of their earlier NFC West clash — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle won the first meeting between these two teams by a 27-24 score in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog — and the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL San Francisco-Seattle NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
Browns v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
23-33 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Clemson v. Ohio State OVER 62.5 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. And while the Buckeyes are 2nd in the nation by allowing just 148.1 passing YPG, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total under head coach Dabo Swinney against teams who do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. Ohio State generated 492 yards against the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes averaged 39.3 PPG over their last three games along with 495.3 total YPG against three of the best defenses in the nation against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Their win against the Badgers three weeks ago finished below the 58 point total — but the Buckeyes have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after coming off a game that finished below the number. And while Ohio State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields leads the Buckeyes offense that leads the nation by scoring 48.7 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by generating 531.0 total YPG. Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes while posting an incredible 40:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Lawrence, Fields can extend drives with his legs as he rushed for 471 yards with 10 touchdowns. I see more touchdowns than field goals from both teams given the wealth of weapons on offense. Ohio State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the rare occasions they are an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The defensive numbers of both teams have come mostly against soft competition. The Clemson defense was not tested this season — the Buckeyes will offer their most difficult challenge by far. Ohio State allowed 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games. The Buckeyes’ have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. I am expecting both teams to reach the 30-point threshold in what should be a shootout. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Oklahoma v. LSU UNDER 76.5 |
|
28-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma has only covered the point spread once in their last six games and twice in their last nine contests — and not only have they then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games but they have also played 9 straight Unders when failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Sooners team has improved on defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved by giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are going to run the football to burn time off the clock while keeping the powerful LSU offense off the field. They controlled the clock for 36:36 minutes in the Big 12 Championship Game which helped them limit Baylor to just 265 yards of offense. Oklahoma has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on a neutral field Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher. The Under is also 18-3-1 in the Sooners’ last 22 games in December which includes them playing eight of their last nine December bowl games Under the Total. And in their last 13 games against teams from the SEC, the game finished Under the Total 10 times. LSU has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an SEC rival. And while that 27 point margin was the closest game the Tigers have played in their last three contests, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after registering at least three straight wins by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit victories over conference rivals. LSU did generate 481 yards against the Bulldogs defense — and that was the lowest yardage mark in their last six games. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. LSU has scored at least 37 points in five straight games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight contests. The Tigers defense has stepped up as well as of late after holding Texas A&M to just 7 points before limiting Georgia to just 10 points and a mere 286 total yards. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs have allowed only 12.3 PPG along with just 253.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field. The Tigers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Oklahoma-LSU ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Memphis v. Penn State OVER 59.5 |
|
39-53 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). THE SITUATION: Memphis (12-1) has won seven straight games with their 29-24 win over Cincinnati as a 9-point favorite in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game on December 7th. Penn State (10-2) has won two of their last three games with their 27-6 win over Rutgers on November 30th as a 38.5-point favorite. This game is being played in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This team saw their fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell leave the team to take the Florida State job but with offensive line coach, Ryan Silverfield, taking over, the emphasis of this team should continue to be on the offensive side of the football. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, Memphis was 8th in the FBS by averaging 40.5 PPG — and they were 10th in the nation by averaging 480.7 total YPG. This offense was even more potent on the road where they averaged 43.0 PPG along with 524.5 total YPG in their six games away from home. The Tigers also have an elite return game with their special teams which generates hidden yardage that does not show up on the boxscore but puts White into better initial field position. Memphis has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Tigers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, Memphis has played 10 of these games Over the Total. Penn State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Sean Clifford did not play in that game against the Scarlet Knights — but he should be close to 100% for this game with head coach James Franklin claiming he was a game-time decision who could have played if necessary in that game. The Nittany Lions also lost a coach with offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne leaving to take the head coaching job at Old Dominion — but the offense should be fine with Franklin still overseeing everything for this team. I worry about the Penn State pass defense in this matchup — they surrendered 232.5 passing YPG which was 76th in the nation. Before facing the anemic Rutgers offense, the Nittany Lions had surrendered 86 combined points in their previous three games — and they have allowed their last three opponents including the Scarlet Knights to average 420.7 total YPG. Penn State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have played 4 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. Group of Five schools have won three of their five New Year’s Six Bowl games — so even if Penn State takes a big lead, the potent Memphis passing attack should keep them scoring points throughout this game. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Iowa State v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
9-33 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Camping World Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones were crushed on the ground by the Wildcats in that game by allowing 231 rushing yards — but they have then seen the Under go 44-19-2 in their last 65 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Iowa State only allowed 288 total yards in that game with Kansas State managing to pass for just 57 yards — and the Under is then 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. The Cyclones managed only 236 yards of offense in that game — and they have averaged just 397.0 total YPG over their last three contests which is over 60 yards below their 458.7 total YPG average. The Under is 9-2-1 in Iowa State’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Cyclones’ last 9 games against teams outside the Big 12. And Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Cyclones’ last 7 bowl game appearances — and the Under is a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 games played on field turf. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Irish have an outstanding defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and their defense is 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 163.7 passing YPG. After losing to Michigan, Notre Dame only allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five games. They held their opponents to -86 YPG below their season offensive average — and they also ranked 7th in the nation by Expected Points Added per play. The Irish offense did slow down when playing away from South Bend as they scored just 29.8 PPG while averaging just 367.6 total YPG in their last five road games which was over a touchdown less along with over 60 yards less than their 37.1 PPG and 429.4 total YPG averages. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as the favorite. 25* CFB ABC-TV Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
USC v. Iowa OVER 52 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. USC generated a whopping 643 yards against the Bruins in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers that ranks 17th in the nation by averaging 463.7 total YPG. Iowa’s defense ranks 11th in the nation by allowing just 304.3 total YPG but they only faced three quarterbacks that ranked in the top-twenty in pass efficiency. In those three games, the Hawkeyes surrendered 441 total YPG. The Iowa offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. He will be facing a suspect USC defense that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. USC has seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Holiday Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-19 |
Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
23-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-19 |
Chiefs v. Bears UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
26-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Rams v. 49ers OVER 44 |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. San Francisco has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games with injuries on defense playing a significant role in the decline of play on that side of the ball. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit in his late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has seen their last two games finish Over the Total — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Now the Rams stay on the road where they have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Los Angeles offense has picked things up as of late as they are scoring 27.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 431.0 total YPG. The Rams have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 20-7 loss at home to the 49ers back on October 13th. Todd Gurley did not play in that game which limited their ground attack as well as the credibility of their play-action passes. Los Angles has played 21 of their last 35 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 10* NFL LA Rams-San Francisco O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-19 |
Colts v. Saints UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-19 |
Bills v. Steelers OVER 36.5 |
|
17-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Army v. Navy UNDER 44 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-19 |
Jets v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
21-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-19 |
Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-19 |
Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 48 |
Top |
12-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-19 |
Lions v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 |
|
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-8-1) has lost five games in a row with their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago on Thanksgiving as a 5.5-point underdog. Minnesota (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-30 loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They did get a surprisingly good performance from undrafted rookie free agent David Blough at quarterback who completed 22 of 38 passes for 280 yards. But after Blough led the team to a 17-10 halftime lead, Detroit only scored a field goal in the second half with the Bears slowing down the Lions offense. Now this stout Vikings’ defense has had ten days to study the game tape of the former Purdue quarterback to dissect for this contest. Detroit gained 364 yards in that contest — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Minnesota will be looking to get back to playing outstanding defense after surrendering 444 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now Minnesota returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 15.6 PPG along with only 331.4 total YPG. The Vikings have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Minnesota has paled 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents. And in their last 9 games in December, the Vikings have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won the first meeting between these two teams by a 42-30 sore as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 20th. Head coach Matt Patricia should dial-up some better schemes on defense for this rematch. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and these two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-19 |
Oregon v. Utah UNDER 50 |
Top |
37-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Utes’ gameplan is to control Time of Possession while crushing the will of their opponent in this game of keep away by employing a very physical style of defense. Utah plays the slowest tempo in the FBS while averaging 34:52 minutes per game with the football. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, the Utes have played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home by at least 28 points. Utah held the Buffaloes last week to just 217 yards of offense — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Utes have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Utah has not allowed more than 15 points in seven of their last eight games. Kyle Whittingham’s defense ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 11.3 PPG — and they also rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing just 241.6 total YPG. The Utes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against Pac-12 opponents. Furthermore, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field when favored by up to 7 points. Senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Oregon is led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert who is touted as a high NFL draft prospect but who has underperformed in big games throughout his career. While the Ducks average 452.3 total YPG at home in Autzen Stadium, that number drops by over 60 YPG to just 389.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. Oregon has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah played in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game and lost to Washington by a 10-3 score. While this game should see more offense, expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-19 |
Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 |
|
24-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This is also a team that has lost the turnover battle in four straight games after not generating even one takeaway over that stretch. Dallas has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a losing the turnover battle in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The defense remains very good for this team — they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing 19.7 PPG and by limiting their opponents to just 321.6 total YPG. The Dallas defense has been even better on the road where they hold their opponents to just 19.2 PPG along with only 294.7 total YPG. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed the Lions’ behind rookie quarterback David Blough to generate 364 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This unit should be up for the challenge tonight — while Dallas averages 25.8 PPG, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. Chicago did gain 419 yards last week against a bad Lions defense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team turns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as a small underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play a role in slowing down both offenses that struggle in translating their drives into touchdowns. Dallas ranks 24th in the NFL in Yards-Per-Point with Chicago ranking 19th in that metric — and the Cowboys are 31st in the league in that metric over their last three games while the Bears rank 28th. Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Dallas-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-19 |
Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, Minnesota has played 20 of their last 25 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Ever since getting called out by wide receiver Adam Thielen for not being aggressive enough in the passing game, Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Since Week Five, Cousins is completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns passes and just one interception. Those 18 TD passes are most in the NFL over that span and his 75 Quarterback Rating since Week Five is the fourth-best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6th in the NFL by averaging 378.6 total YPG — and they are generating 384.7 YPG when playing on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. But a concern for the Vikings as of late has been the play of their defense. over their last three games, Minnesota is allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average. Seattle has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now the Seahawks return home where their defense has been surprisingly shaky. Seattle is allowing its visitors to score 29.2 PPG while averaging 385.8 total YPG. But behind Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents as they are 3rd in the NFL by averaging 385.4 total YPG — and they are scoring 26.8 PPG while generating 403.2 total YPG when playing at home. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Minnesota-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-19 |
Patriots v. Texans UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-30-19 |
UNLV v. Nevada UNDER 52 |
|
33-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). THE SITUATION: UNLV (3-8) snapped their four-game losing streak last week with their 38-35 upset win over San Jose State as a 7-point underdog. Nevada (7-4) has won their last three games with their 35-28 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 12-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home dog. Additionally, UNLV has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. And while the Rebels gained 455 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UNLV goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 games again teams with a winning record, the Rebels have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Nevada has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing much better defense to end their regular season as they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with only 328.7 total YPG. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders in this series. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-28-19 |
Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 |
Top |
26-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-28-19 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 39 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-6) enters this game coming off a 19-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Detroit (3-7-1) has lost four straight games with their 19-16 upset loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With Matthew Stafford possibly out the season with his hip injury and backup, Jeff Driskel, dealing with a bad hamstring injury he suffered last week, the Lions will be starting rookie David Blough at quarterback for this game. Blough was a part-time starter last year for Purdue who was drafted by Cleveland before being traded to Detroit in late August. Blough has not played a down in a regular-season game yet. Driskel is available as the backup but tight end Logan Thomas will be the emergency QB if something happens to Blough and Driskel is unavailable. This is yet the next disaster for a disastrous franchise that has signed and cut six other quarterbacks in 2019. It is not just the utter failure of this regime under general manager Bob Quinn to identify and develop backup talent quarterback behind Stafford, it is that they are relying on guys like Driskell and now Blough who did not have the benefit of training camp. Then again, maybe that would not have helped much — the football culture in Detroit is the polar opposite of the one in New England where Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were imported (because they had once been in the same rook as Bill Belichick). The Lions are also dealing with below replacement level talent at running back after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. They did manage 364 yards last week against the hapless Skins in that losing effort — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Detroit defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 321.7 total YPG which is -74.5 net YPG below their season average. But the Lions are scoring just 18.7 PPG in those three games before relying today on the guy who could not beat out Elijah Sindelar for the starting gig at Purdue last year. Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight contests, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the NFC North, Detroit has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total against divisional opponents. The Bears have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chicago offense is also a mess under the regressing Mitchell Trubisky — they are scoring only 15.3 PPG while averaging 276.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Bears defense has stepped up in their last three games by allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 294.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Bears go on the road where they are scoring just 17.8 PPG along with averaging 247.6 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in November, the Bears have played all 5 games Under the Total. Furthermore, while Chicago has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total after the Bears won the first meeting between these two teams on November 12th by a 20-13 score. With this game being played on a short week with an early afternoon start, expect lots of stalled drives and mostly field goal attempts. Even with the low number, take the Under. 10* NFL Chicago-Detroit Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-19 |
Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 |
|
45-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. Their win over the Texans came on the heels of a 49-13 win at Cincinnati — and Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. With Baltimore averaging 42.3 PPG over their last three games, it is certainly very tempting to expect another higher-scoring game from them tonight. But the Ravens have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is getting most of the attention, the Ravens’ defense has been playing quite well as of late. Baltimore has held its last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 293.7 total YPG. The Ravens have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Rams are scoring 24.3 PPG, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 24 PPG. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. This will likely continue to be the strategy tonight to keep Jackson off the field for the Ravens. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home this week where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Ravens lead the NFL by scoring 34.1 PPG, the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 27 PPG. And while Baltimore averages 24.3 first downs per game along with controlling the clock for 34.36 minutes per game, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 32 Minutes Per Game while gaining at least 21 first downs per game. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Rams ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-24-19 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 45.5 |
|
8-37 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites. San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. San Francisco misses the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander who suffered a season-ending chest injury at the beginning of the month. The Niners have allowed 26.0 PPG over their last three games which is over 10 PPG above their 15.5 PPG season average. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight on the other side of the ball with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. San Francisco has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have also played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing their last game at home. And while the Packers have played two straight Unders, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Packers did give up 401 total yards against the Panthers — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also allowed their four home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG — that helps explain why they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. In an expected close game, look for a back-and-forth game that will finish above the number. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 46 |
|
9-13 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-4) has won three of their last four games after their 35-27 win in Detroit last week as a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions. New England (9-1) returns home after playing their last two games on the road which culminated in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia last week as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering point spread expectations in three of their last four games. Dallas has been an Over machine this season having played three straight Overs as well as in seven of their ten games this season. But these higher scoring games may be, in some part, reflective of their soft schedule that has featured only three teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. Additionally, while the Patriots are holding their opponents to just 4.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Cowboys have then played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing a defense that is not allowing more than 5.2 YPA. Dallas has averaged 6.42 and then 7.27 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 22 of the last 31 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6 YPP in two straight games. The Cowboys have an underrated defense that is 7th in the NFL by allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 322.1 total YPG. And while the Patriots only average 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game, Dallas has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams that do not average more than 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game. New England has now covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Patriots’ offensive numbers are propped up a bit with their combination of five defensive and special teams touchdowns. The offense lacks a deep threat — and they will be undermanned with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett out and Mohamad Sanu questionable and limited as he deals with an injury. The Patriots defense has been not quite as spectacular as of late as their strength of schedule has dialed up — but they are still only allowing 20.0 PPG along with 312.3 total YPG over their last three games. They also hold their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. New England has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points overall. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Patriots have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather will make the Dallas offense uncomfortable — a familiar foe for dome teams. Don’t be surprised if the tone of this game resembles the Cowboys’ 12-10 win in New Orleans earlier this season (although I lean to the Patriots). 10* NFL Dallas-New England Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
NC State v. Georgia Tech UNDER 48 |
|
26-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). THE SITUATION: NC State (4-6) has lost four games in a row with their 34-20 loss to Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Georgia Tech (2-8) has lost three straight games after their 45-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack are relying on a redshirt freshman quarterback in Devin Leary as they hope to make it to a bowl game for a sixth straight season. NC State is scoring only 22.9 PPG this year which is 104th in the nation — and they are scoring just 18.5 PPG while averaging 342.5 total YPG in their four games on the road. Leary will likely struggle in this nationally televised game on the road tonight behind a team that has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total away from home. The Wolfpack has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the NC State has played 19 of their last 26 games under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 22 games in conference play, the Wolfpack have played 15 of these games Under the Total. Georgia Tech is also relying on a redshirt freshman in quarterback James Graham who hit rock bottom after completing just 7 of 14 passes for 43 yards before being benched on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets trailed by a 21-0 score to the Hokies before even getting their first 1st down. Georgia Tech has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Toal after a loss by at least four touchdowns in their last game. The Yellow Jackets stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. This Yellow Jackets team has struggled to move the football in the transition from a spread triple-option attack to a pro-style formation in the first year under head coach Geoff Collins. Georgia Tech is scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging 290.2 total YPG which is tied for 124th and 125th in the FBS. In their five games at home, the Yellow Jackets are scoring only 14.0 PPG along with just 241.4 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the Under is an incredible 19-1-1 in NC State’s last 21 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB NC State-Georgia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-19 |
Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 57 |
Top |
66-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-6) has lost their last two games are their 37-34 upset loss at home to Western Michigan last Tuesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bowling Green (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-3 loss at Miami (OH) as a 17-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats are looking to salvage their season with a potential bowl bid still after getting upset in two straight games by a combined 6 points. Their loss to the Broncos finished well above the 59 point Total — and they have played 29 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Ohio has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Bobcats allowed 322 passing yards in that game to the Broncos — but they have then seen the Under go 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that effort last week, Ohio has been playing better defense as of late. They have held their last three opponents to 368.7 total YPG which is -63.9 net YPG below their season average. Now the Bobcats go on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 359.5 total YPG — and those numbers are -5.8 PPG and -51.3 net YPG below their season averages. Ohio also holds their home hosts to just 23.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season defensive average. The Bobcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Ohio did rush for 216 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bobcats average 6.89 Yards-Per-Play in that contest — and they have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in Ohio’s last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Bowling Green has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. Despite last week’s result, the Falcons have also played a bit better on the defensive side of the football. While Bowling Green ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 441.1 total YPG, they have held their last three opponents to just 366.3 total YPG. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Bowling Green does play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 313.6 total YPG in their five games this season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. The bigger issue for Bowling Green is their lack of productivity on offense as they rank 125th in the nation by scoring only 16.1 PPG. The Falcons have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest. Bowling Green was trailing by a 37-3 score at halftime of that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after trailing by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-19 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Bears v. Rams UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
|
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: New England (8-1) returns to the field again after their bye week which came after their first loss of the season in Baltimore by a 37-20 score. Philadelphia (5-4) also comes off their bye week as well after their 22-14 win over Chicago as a 5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have worked on getting his defense back into shape after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack put up 30 points against them (with 7 points coming from a defensive touchdown by Baltimore). The Patriots have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England remains the best statistical defense in the league as they are allowing 10.9 PPG and just 249.3 total YPG which are both best in the NFL. The Patriots are also 2nd in the NFL by scoring 30.0 PPG — but those numbers include six non-offensive touchdowns from special teams and their defense. Tellingly, New England is 15th in the NFL by averaging just 366.8 total YPG — and they are averaging just 342.4 total YPG on the road and only 327.7 total YPG over their last three games. Tom Brady lacks credible deep threats from his wide receivers — and this is allowing opponents to stack the box to put more pressure on their ground game. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Philadelphia is also a team that has been limited on offense given the lack of deep threats given the injury abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson that has placed him on IR. The Eagles are just 19th in the NFL by averaging 347.0 total YPG. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Philly defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 273.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have also played 9 of their last 111 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL New England-Philadelphia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Broncos v. Vikings UNDER 41 |
|
23-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with their 24-19 win over Cleveland as a 4-point underdog. Minnesota (7-3) has won five of their last six games with their 28-24 upset win last Sunday night in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while the Denver defense surrendered 351 yards in that game, the Under is then 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie QB Brandon Allen was solid but unspectacular in his first career start by completing 12 of his mere 20 passes in that game for 193 yards. I expect him to struggle against this Panthers defense that now can study him on tape executing the Denver offense in a regular-season game. The Broncos are scoring only 16.2 PPG on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after their bye week. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as the underdog. Minnesota’s defense will be make it tough on Allen — they are holding their visitors to just 13.7 PPG along with only 315.7 total YPG. The Vikings have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Vikings’ game with the Cowboys finished Over the 48.5 point total with all but one scoring drive in that game stalling for a field goal. But Minnesota has then played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Kirk Cousins targeted 16 of his 23 completions last week to tight ends or running backs with Adam Thielen on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He led the Vikings’ offense to 364 total yards in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Thielen is once again out for this game — and Minnesota is facing a tough Denver defense that is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 309.7 total YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 |
|
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (7-2) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week with their surprising 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite. Tampa Bay (3-6) ended their four-game losing streak last week with their 30-27 win at home over Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is, in part, a contrarian play after considering that the Buccaneers have played seven straight Overs entering this game. Tampa Bay did generate 457 yards last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Buccaneers have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tampa Bay is allowing 32.0 PPG which is the worst in the NFL — but this defense also leads the NFL by giving up just 77.8 rushing YPG and that is not just about the opponents not rushing very much as opposing rushers are averaging just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. I suspect that Sean Paton will want to get his running game going after the Saints managed only 310 total yards last week. The New Orleans offense was only on the field for 26:14 minutes in that game with Drew Brees attempting 45 passes (for 287 yards) — so the Saints will likely try to re-establish their commitment to running the football to help their defense. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while the Saints are averaging 414.7 total YPG over their last three games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. This team has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The New Orleans defense ranks 5th in the league by holding their opponents to just 316.6 total YPG. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Saints have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 15 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total — and they have played five of their last six encounters in Tampa Bay Under the Total. With the number in the 50 range, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
13-33 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
USC v. California UNDER 48 |
|
41-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). THE SITUATION: USC (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Cal (5-4) snapped a four-game losing streak last week with their 33-20 upset win over Washington State as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Cal has also now played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in Pac-12 play. The Golden Bears rank 25th in the nation by allowing only 20.7 PPG this season. They stay at home where they are limiting their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with only 332.6 total YPG. But Cal is struggling to move the football as they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging a mere 263.7 total YPG. Sophomore quarterback Chase Garbers has been upgraded to probable with his shoulder injury that has kept him out but head coach Justin Wilcox has been cagey regarding if he will take the place of UCLA graduate transfer Devon Modster who led the team to victory last week. Either way, both quarterbacks are combining to average just 182.9 passing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Overall, the Golden Bears are 119th in the nation by averaging just 308.6 total YPG. Cal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Golden Bears have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. USC raced out to a 28-13 lead last week against the Sun Devils — and they have played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game including playing three of their last four of these situations Under the Total. The Trojans held Arizona State to just 47 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. But while USC did surrender 292 passing yards to the Sun Devils in that game, the Under is then 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. The Trojans stay on the road where they are scoring 26.8 PPG which is -3.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Cal won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 15-14 score. These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 encounters Under the Total including 6 of their last 7 clashes Under the Total when playing in Berkeley. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Texas v. Iowa State UNDER 65.5 |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 27-24 win over Kansas State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa State (5-4) has lost two in a row after their narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win. And while Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games, Texas has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. The defense has been a disappointment for head coach Tom Herman as they rank 109th in the nation by allowing 447.6 total YPG. But injuries have played a big role in the play of this defense. The Longhorns got safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster back on the field last week — and they limited the Wildcats to just 304 total yards last week in that win. Now Texas looks to get safety Chris Brown and linebacker Jeffrey McCullough back on the field as they return from their respective injuries. That will help this Longhorns team even more than has played a decisive 38 of their last 54 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Texas did generate 477 yards of offense last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Longhorns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Over/Under set at 63 or higher. And in their last 30 games played in November, Texas has played 23 of these games Under the Total. Iowa State has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread win — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cyclones generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Over is then 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. That game with the Sooners flew Over the 71 point Total last week — and Iowa State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game that combined for at least 70 points. The Cyclones return home where their defense plays better by allowing just 24.4 PPG along with only 346.2 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* CFB Texas-Iowa State FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-16-19 |
Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-1) has won three straight games since their loss to South Carolina after their 27-0 shutout victory over Missouri as an 18.5-point favorite last week. Auburn (7-2) has won two of their last three games with their 20-14 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Georgia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs sport an elite defense that has not allowed more than 20 points all season. Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.1 PPG while also ranking 5th in the nation with a total defense of 260.3 YPG. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs are giving up a mere 5.7 PPG along with just 217.7 total YPG. Georgia is growing more and more reliant on their defense as their offense is scoring -4.0 PPG over their last four games than their season average up to that point. The Bulldogs have been exposed in lacking vertical threats in their passing game which has allowed their opponents to push one of their defensive backs into the box. Over their last three games, Georgia is scoring just 24.0 PPG along with averaging only 335.7 total YPG. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total against conference opponents — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Auburn has seen the Under go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a point spread win. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix might have played his best game of the season last week by completing 30 of 44 passes for 340 yards while leading the Tigers offense to generate 507 total yards. But Auburn has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Nix has still been up-and-down this season as he is completing only 56.5% of his passes. The Tigers put up big numbers against their weaker competition — but they are scoring only 20 PPG against ranked opponents while scoring just 16.5 PPG in their two losses. This Auburn team is also outstanding on the defensive side of the football. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 28th in the FBS by giving up only 333.4 total YPG. In their four games at home, they are limiting their visitors to just 14.7 PPG and 286.0 total YPG. Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They held the Rebels two weeks ago to 266 total yards — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Remember, Auburn limited an LSU offense that just torched Alabama to just 23 points. Moving forward, the Under is 23-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Auburn has played 35 of their last 54 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have defenses that are continuing to improve. Georgia has allowed -4.7 PPG over their last four games while Auburn has given up -4.0 PPG over their last four contests. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-14-19 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-19 |
Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 |
Top |
28-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
0-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 24-7 loss at South Carolina last Saturday as a 15-point underdog. Florida (7-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-17 loss to Georgia last week as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Florida’s offense sputtered last week as they managed only 278 total yards against the Bulldogs defense. The lack of a credible rushing attack is the Achilles’ heel of this Florida team — they average only 128.9 rushing YPG which is 70th in the nation. Over their last three games, the Gators are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging just 363.0 total YPG which is far below their 30.8 PPG and 403.9 total YPG averages. Now this team returns home to Gainesville where they are 4-0 this season while playing outstanding defense. Florida has held their four guests to just 4.0 PPG along with only 237.5 total YPG. The Gators have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 17 home games when laying 21.5 to 28 points, Florida has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Vanderbilt has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commodores only gained 189 yards last week against the mediocre Gamecocks defense. Junior quarterback Duece Wallace has been tapped as the starter for this game with Ball State transfer Riley Neal out for this game with a concussion. Wallace completed just 8 of 17 passes in relief last week against South Carolina for just 30 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Vanderbilt managed only 76 passing yards overall last week — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Commodores will struggle to score points — they are averaging just 17.0 PPG while averaging just 317.1 total YPG which rank 123rd and 115th in the nation. The Vandy rushing attack is not likely to bail Wallace out in this game either as they are averaging just 125.9 rushing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Florida is 11th in the nation by allowing only 16.7 PPG — and they also rank 31st in the FBS by giving up just 123.6 rushing YPG. The Commodores particularly struggle to move the football on the road where they are scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging 314.7 total YPG. Vanderbilt has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Commodores have played five straight Unders, they have then played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. If there is a bright spot for Mason’s team as the season progresses, it has been the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, Vanderbilt has allowed 24.0 PPG along with 370.3 total YPG which is more than 10 points and 80 YPG below their season averages. The Commodores have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November.
FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as a big underdog getting more than three touchdowns. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank (who also will have his 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year and the LSU-Alabama ATS winner as part of his Saturday CFB card).
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11-07-19 |
Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-19 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
37-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Texans v. Jaguars OVER 46 |
Top |
26-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
36 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-19 |
SMU v. Memphis OVER 71.5 |
Top |
48-54 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). THE SITUATION: SMU (8-0) remained undefeated this season with their 34-31 win at Houston as a 12-point favorite back on October 24th. Memphis (7-1) has won their last two games with their 42-41 win at Tulsa as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mustangs’ 34 points last week was their lowest scoring output all season — they had scored at least 37 points in each of their previous seven contests. SMU ranks 6th in the nation by scoring 43.0 PPG — and they rank 10th in the FBS by averaging 504.1 total YPG with a balanced offense that ranks 31st in the nation in averaging 202.8 rushing YPG and 17th in the nation in passing with their 301.4 passing YPG mark. Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has been a revelation for this team after transferring from Texas — he is completing 63.2% of his passes with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with a loaded group of wide receivers. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. This is a big-play offense that has registered plays of at least 40 yards sixteen times this season. The SMU defense has not been as sharp — they rank 68th in the nation by allowing 27.8 PPG while also ranking 60th in the FBS by allowing 387.6 total YPG. They allowed the depleted Houston offense with their top quarterback and wide receiver redshirting for next season to 510 yards of offense. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while SMU enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Mustangs stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total after winning at least two straight games. The Tigers generated 498 yards in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, the Tigers are 10th in the nation by averaging 39.5 PPG and they also rank 23rd in the nation by averaging 470.6 total YPG. Memphis has scored at least 35 points in six of their games while reaching at least 42 points in three of their last four games. Their lone loss was on the road at Temple against an Owls team that plays solid defense. The Tigers did surrender a whopping 584 yards last week to the Golden Hurricanes — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis returns home for this big American Athletic Conference clash where they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in November while SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in November. With ESPN’s Gameday crew taking place at Memphis for this nationally televised night game, expect a wild high scoring contest. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-19 |
Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
56-10 |
Loss |
-116 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). THE SITUATION: Navy (6-1) has won four straight games after their 41-38 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Connecticut (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak on Saturday with their 56-35 win at UMass as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Connecticut raced out to a 35-21 lead going into halftime against the Minutemen but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they scored at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t read too much in the 542 yards of offense that the Huskies generated last week since that was against a UMass team that is last in the FBS in total defense. Take away Connecticut’s numbers in their two victories against UMass (probably wth worst team in the FBS) and Wagner (an FCS school) — and the Huskies are scoring only 15.5 PPG along with just 303.5 total YPG while never scoring more than 23 points in their six losses. Connecticut returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 6 games as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 point range, Connecticut has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Navy allowed 290 passing yards last week to the Green Wave — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. First-year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry has the Midshipmen defense playing at a very high level once again — they are 19th in the FBS by allowing only 19.3 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by giving up just 310.3 total YPG. They will be encountering a freshman quarterback in Jack Zergiotis who was helped out last week by running back Kevin Mensah who rushed for 164 yards while reaching the end zone five times. Head coach Randy Edsall wants his team to play physical where they control the Time of Possession: they are averaging 33 minutes per game on offense after holding the ball for 34:58 last week against UMass. But they now face a Navy defense that limits opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 18th in the nation by allowing only 109.6 rushing YPG. And the Midshipmen formula for success is also controlling the clock as they average 33:39 minutes with the ball per game. Navy has generated 454 and 457 yards over their last two games while averaging 6.98 Yards-Per-Play and 7.25 YPP in those contests. The Midshipmen have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Navy has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Midshipmen’s spread triple option has propelled them to leading the nation by averaging 350.7 rushing YPG — and this is how they control the Time of Possession statistic. Navy only passed for 68 yards last week — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 125 yards in their last game. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 |
|
28-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. San Francisco is playing elite-level defense this season — they lead the NFL by allowing only 224.4 total YPG while ranking second in the league by allowing just 11.0 PPG. The Niners have not allowed more than 13 points in each of their last four games. In their last three games, San Francisco is allowing just 6.7 PPG and 183.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the 230 yards of offense that the Panthers gained last week was the most that the 49ers have allowed in their last four games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in at least two straight games. On offense, San Francisco is scoring 29.6 PPG along with averaging 387.3 total YPG — but those numbers drop to a 25.2 PPG scoring mark on the road where their yardage average drops almost 30 yards to 360.5 total YPG. The Niners have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cardinals managed only 237 total yards of offense last week against the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. Arizona returns home where they are scoring only 22.7 PPG — and they have averaged just 308.0 total YPG over their last three contests. The Cardinals have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Arizona. 10* NFL San Francisco-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
West Virginia v. Baylor OVER 56 |
|
14-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (305) and the Baylor Bears (306). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 52-14 loss at Oklahoma two Saturdays ago s a 33-point underdog. Baylor (7-0) remained undefeated back on October 19th with their 45-27 upset win at Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. First-year head coach Neal Brown is having the most problems with his defense ranks 110th in the FBS by allowing 33.4 PPG. West Virginia allowed 560 yards of offense to the Sooners — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers managed only 242 yards of offense in that game — and thee Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. West Virginia only rushed for 51 yards against Oklahoma but they have then played 17 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers only rushed for 41 yards in their previous game against Iowa State — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Now West Virginia stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Baylor generated 536 yards against the Cowboys in their upset win two Saturdays ago. The Bears averaged 9.93 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have then played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.2 YPP in their last game. Baylor is 12th in the nation by scoring 38.9 PPG. The Bears are also 27th in the FBS by averaging 281.4 passing YPG. They have averaged 310.7 passing YPG over their last three games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 games Over the Total after averaging at least 300 passing YPG over their last three games. Now Baylor returns home where they are scoring 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 12 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Baylor has also played 36 of their last 55 home games when favored — and this includes them playing 6 of these last 8 situations Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. 10* CFB West Virginia-Baylor ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (305) and the Baylor Bears (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-19 |
Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 |
|
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Miami has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Dolphins defense did not play too poorly — they held the Bills to just 305 total yards. This unit seems to be improving under head coach Brian Flores as they have held their last three opponents to just 335.3 total YPG. The former New England defensive coordinator also tapped Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback last week — and he completed 23 of 35 passes for 282 yards while leading the offense to 381 total yards. But Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But this remains a Dolphins offense that is last in the NFL by scoring only 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG. Miami stays on the road where they have played 13 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. The Dolphins have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while Miami has covered the point spread just twice this season, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They also have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Steelers are averaging just 276.5 total YPG which is 29th in the NFL. After third-string QB Devlin Hodges was under center against the Chargers, head coach Mike Tomlin has named Mason Rudolph back as the starting quarterback after he cleared the concussion protocol. Rudolph is averaging only 178.3 passing YPG in his three starts this season with the coaching staff not comfortable in risking him taking chances down the field. The Pittsburgh defense has played much better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Miami-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Colorado State v. Fresno State UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
41-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (2-5) takes the field again after their bye week after their 35-21 win at New Mexico as a 5-point favorite back on October 11th. Fresno State (3-3) comes off a 56-27 win over UNLV last Saturday as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 17 points. Fresno State has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs defense has been a disappointment this season after they allowed only 321.6 total YPG which was 17th in the nation. Six starters are back from that unit but they are allowing 370.3 total YPG which is 54th best in the FBS. That number does drop to just 346.3 total YPG in their three games at home this season which helps explain why they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Colorado State has played 5 straight games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 25 of 34 passes for 420 yards against the hapless Lobos defense two weeks ago while leading the Rams’ offense to 551 total yards of offense. But Colorado State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last contest. The Rams are averaging a robust 470.1 total YPG this season which is 21st best in the nation — but that number does drop almost by 30 when they are playing on the road where they are averaging 442.2 total YPG. Colorado State ranks 13th in the nation by allowing just 177.0 passing YPG but that number has been skewed a bit by them playing some run-oriented opponents. Teams can run on the Rams defense as they rank 121st in the nation by allowing 220.7 rushing YPG. New Mexico rushed for 256 yards against them while outgaining them on the ground by +125 net rushing yards — and this focus on the rushing game helped keep the clock moving to achieve the Under in that game. Colorado State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 125 yards in their last contest. Over their last three games. head coach Mike Bobo’s team is scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 360.7 total YPG — but they have also only allowed 26.3 PPG (-8.0 PPG below their season average) along with just 342.3 total YPG (-55.4 net YPG below their season average).
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 6 straight games in Mountain West Conference play Under the Total — and Fresno State has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total in MWC play. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Texas v. TCU UNDER 58 |
|
27-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (187) and the TCU Horned Frogs (188). THE SITUATION: Texas (5-2) looks to build off their 50-48 win over Kansas as a 20-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (3-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 24-17 loss at Kansas State as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big 12 rival. Texas has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Longhorns need to tighten things up on the defensive side of the football after allowing 569 yards in their last game. Texas has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. Now the Longhorns go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total. TCU has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have paled 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. TCU has not forced a turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in at least two straight games. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have played 20 of their last 29 Big 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game. 3* CFB Texas-TCU Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (187) and the TCU Horned Frogs (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
USC v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). THE SITUATION: USC (4-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-14 win over Arizona at home as a 10.5-point favorite. Colorado (3-4) has lost there straight games after their 41-10 loss at Washington State as a 13.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. USC has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Trojans team has been riddled with injuries which leaves them with a freshman at quarterback and tailback for tonight’s game. True freshman Kedon Slovis is under center for the team after the injuries to sophomore quarterbacks J.T. Daniels and Jack Sears. At running back, injuries junior Stephen Carr, junior Vavaeu Malepeai, and freshman Markese Stepp who is not out three to five weeks with an ankle injury leave the primary rushing duties to freshman Kenan Christon. Admittedly, Slovis has played well this season and Christon had 100 rushing yards last week but the challenge will be different for these inexperienced players when playing in a hostile environment — especially in a televised night game. While USC averages 30.7 PPG and 434.1 total YPG this season, those numbers drop to just 22.7 PPG along with 417.7 total YPG. The Trojans have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against Pac-12 opponents — and they have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Colorado is struggling on offense after gaining only 320 yards against the Cougars defense last week. The Buffaloes are averaging just 14.3 PPG along with only 371.7 total YPG which are both well below their 26.6 PPG and 407.7 total YPG averages. Colorado has then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Buffaloes have allowed at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Colorado does return home after playing two straight games as well as three of their last four games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Buffaloes surrendered 368 passing yards to Washington State last week, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 14 of the last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. First-year head coach Mel Tucker was an outstanding defensive coordinator at Georgia and Alabama so I still have confidence he will get his young defense to play better in the second half of the season. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 |
Top |
9-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.
TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
SMU v. Houston UNDER 65.5 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-21 win at home against Temple as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (3-4) enters this game coming off a 24-17 win at UConn as a 21-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars changed their priorities this season after their 38-31 loss at Tulane that dropped them to 1-3 this season. First-year head coach was then reported to ask a number of his players to redshirt the rest of the season so as they could retain their eligibility for next season. Senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wide receiver Keith Corbin were two of the players to decide to remain their eligibility for next season. Some have called this the college version of tanking although Houston has since won two of their last three games. Frankly, Holgorsen still has every incentive to win games — especially on national television — to help with recruiting. But he needs to change his style of play with his top playmakers on offense being saved for next season. His son, Logan, was the starter last week against the Huskies where they managed only 286 yards of offense against a UConn team that had allowed at least 31 points in their previous five games. The freshman will likely give way to sophomore Clayton Thune who was out that game with a hamstring injury. The sophomore is completing only 53.2% of his passes this season. Holgorsen has seen his offense pass the ball less since King redshirted as Houston has attempted 20, 30, and 18 passes in each of their last three games. The Cougars have run the ball in 61% of their plays from scrimmage since the King and Corbin redshirt decisions — and running the football will likely remain the formula tonight to keep the powerful Mustangs offense off the field. Houston has averaged 355.7 total YPG over their last three games which is almost 40 YPG below their 393.6 total YPG season average. The Cougars have seen better numbers on defense in those three games as they have held those opponents to 26.7 PPG along with 429.3 total YPG which is high but is still over 40 yards below their 470.3 total YPG average for the season. Houston has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. SMU has seen improved play with their defense as well this season with nine starters and eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year back. The Mustangs allowed 35.3 PPG along with 429.8 total YPG last year — and those numbers have dropped to a 27.3 PPG mark this season along with 370.1 total YPG (54th in the FBS). After not allowing more than 32 points in five of their last six games last season, SMU has allowed more than 30 points just twice this year. The Mustangs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. And while senior quarterback Shane Buechele attempted 53 passes last week, SMU has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after attempted at least 50 passes in their last game. And while the Mustangs generated 655 yards of offense against the Owls last week, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Additionally, SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played on field turf — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: Even undermanned, the Cougars will be fired up to play this game after they were upset by the Mustangs by a 45-31 scored as a two-touchdown favorite last November. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the Total set in the upper-60s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 49 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Oregon has also played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing outstanding defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos who came over from Boise State. The Ducks rank 3rd in the nation by allowing just 8.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in the nation by surrendering only 267.7 total YPG. Oregon has not allowed more than 7 points in five straight games — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 7 points in their last contest. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did support their defense last week by rushing for 252 yards against the Buffaloes — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Huskies have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win versus a Pac-12 rival — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies’ offense has been inconsistent — they rank just 57th in the nation by averaging 423.1 total YPG. They did rush for 207 yards last week at Arizona — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards. Additionally, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing at Washington. And the forecasts call for rain this afternoon which will make both Herbert and the Huskies’ Jacob Eason uncomfortable. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51 |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-5) has lost two straight games after their 48-31 upset loss to Oregon State as a 4.5-point favorite back on October 5th. Stanford (3-3) has won their last two games with their 23-13 upset win over Washington as a 13.5-point underdog on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory as a home dog getting at least 7 points. Stanford’s win over the Huskies came on the heels of them defeating Oregon State on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after defeating two straight conference rivals. But the bad news for head coach David Shaw is that sophomore quarterback, Davis Mills, will not be able to play tonight given the calf injury he suffered in that game. With junior QB Kevin Costello already out with a thumb injury, that leaves the Cardinal offense in the hands of third-stringer Jack West. The redshirt freshman was highly recruited but not quite as high as Mills while lacking his experience at this point in his young career. As it is, Stanford is scoring only 15.3 PPG at home this season behind an offensive line that has struggled this season with just one returning starter. But the Cardinal are holding their guests to only 13.7 PPG along with just 274.7 total YPG. Stanford has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. The Cardinal defense has not forced more than one turnover since their opening game of the season against Northwestern — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. Additionally, Stanford has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. UCLA is dealing with a host of injuries themselves. Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains questionable with a knee injury that kept him out last week against the Beavers. Sophomore quarterback Austin Burton was capable against Oregon State in Thompson-Robinson’s absence as he completed 27 of 41 passes for 236 yards with a touchdown while adding another 64 yards on the ground. But Burton is not a very high recruit and the Stanford defensive brain trust has had two weeks to prepare his tape for this game. UCLA has attempted 83 passes in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The Bruins did dominate the Time of Possession against the Beavers by holding the ball for 35:20 minutes while compiling 27 first downs — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Moving forward, UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have averaged 531.3 total YPG over their last three games while allowing 539.7 total YPG in those contests — but UCLA has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three games and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 YPG in their last three games. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 |
Top |
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 68.5 |
Top |
37-20 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian State as a 1.5-point favorite. Arkansas State (3-3) had their two-game winning streak end back on October 5th with their 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Wolves have played 10 of their last fourteen games Under the Total after a loss. This has lost their starting quarterback for the season after Logan Bonner’s thumb injury at the end of September. Redshirt freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher has been solid — he completed 21 of 32 passes against the Panthers for 299 yards with four touchdown passes but he also tossed two interceptions in that upset loss. But Arkansas State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Red Wolves surrendered a whopping 722 yards in that game to Georgia State with sixth-year head coach Blake Anderson likely learning that he cannot have his team get in a shootout with Hatcher under center. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Red Wolves defense has been a mess this season as they are giving up 535.8 total YPG. But injuries have played a factor — and this team will receive a boost tonight with the return of senior defensive tackle Kevin Thurmon who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Moving forward, Arkansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Sun Belt Conference opponents — and the Under is also 43-18-2 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Sun Belt foes. They managed only 254 yards of offense last week against the Mountaineers. Junior quarterback Levi Lewis completed 13 of 24 passes but for only 131 yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns are likely to rely on their ground game which ranks 6th in the nation by averaging 282.2 rushing YPG. Louisiana is 14th in the nation by averaging 492.2 total YPG — but those numbers drop by almost 40 yards per game when they are playing away from home. The biggest improvement with this team is on defense where they returned seven starters from last year’s team that allowed 34.2 PPG (105th in the nation) along with 435.59 total YPG (97th in the FBS). This season, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 43rd in the nation by allowing just 344.8 total YPG — and they rank 32nd in the FBS by giving up just 20.7 PPG. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-1 in Louisiana’s last 11 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will be looking to avenge a 47-43 upset loss at Louisiana last year that ultimately cost them the opportunity to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. To get revenge tonight, head coach Anderson will likely conclude that he needs to slow this game down to protect his defense. The Ragin’ Cajuns will also be looking to run the ball — expect a lower scoring game with the Total set in the high 60s. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Lions v. Packers UNDER 47 |
Top |
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 42.5 |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Pittsburgh will be down to their fourth-string quarterback from training camp in rookie Devlin Hodges who will be playing for Mason Rudolph who has not cleared the concussion protocol. The Steelers also lost one of their important offensive weapons in Jaylen Samuels who is out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury last week. Pittsburgh managed only 77 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they have played 37 of their last 52 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Pittsburgh defense is playing better after a slow start. They have held their last three opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Chargers managed only 246 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 319.7 total YPG. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Wyoming v. San Diego State UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
22-26 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
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At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (4-1) takes the field again after their 53-17 win over UNLV two weeks ago as an 8-point favorite. San Diego State (4-1) looks to build off their 24-10 win at Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Wyoming generated 498 yards of offense against the Rebels, the Under is then 22-7-1 in their last 30 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cowboys want to run the ball as they are 2nd in the MWC by averaging 248.2 rushing YPG — but they will be running into a buzzsaw with this Aztecs defense. San Diego State leads the nation by allowing only 45.4 rushing YPG — and they are second in the FBS by limiting rushers to just 1.79 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to rush for more than 82 yards this season. Wyoming goes back on the road where the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. The Under is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 11 of their last 15 games against MWC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. San Diego State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Aztecs held the Rams to just 235 yards of offense in that win — and not only have they then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game but they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. But San Diego State managed only 238 yards last week — and the Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a game where they did not gain more than 275 yards. Injuries have slowed down the Aztecs ground game — they are only averaging 2.98 YPC which is 123rd in the nation while generating just 134 rushing YPG. This has placed more of the weight of the offense on the arm of senior quarterback Ryan Agnew who is solid but certainly not a spectacular gunslinger. San Diego State averages only 187 passing YPG — and head coach Rocky Long will not have his team deviate much from his run-oriented game plan. The Aztecs are scorn only 20.2 PPG this season — and that number drops to 11.5 PPG at home. But San Diego State is allowing just 11.4 PPG along with a mere 270.8 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 26-10-1 in the Aztecs’ last 37 games at home — and they have played 43 of their last 62 games Under the Total in the month of October. The number has dropped into the high 30s for this game — but with the loser likely eliminated from the MWC title race, expect a defensive slugfest with points hard to come by. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-11-19 |
Colorado v. Oregon UNDER 60.5 |
Top |
3-45 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-30 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Oregon (4-1) has won four straight games after their 17-7 win over Cal last Saturday as a 21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a bit of a contrarian play with the Total opening at 58 and now being bet up to the 60s in many spots. The Buffaloes have played in two straight high scoring affairs with their win last week preceded by a 34-30 win at Arizona State. Colorado’s defense has looked shaky by allowing 487 yards to the Wildcats after surrendering 453 yards to the Wildcats. The Buffaloes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Colorado has played 4 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have placed 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. This is just the second true road game of the season for the Buffaloes who have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on field turf. On offense, senior quarterback Steven Montez led the team to 337 passing yards for the second straight week — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on a Friday night. Oregon has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert gets most of the attention with this Ducks team — but he has led this team to just 38 combined points over their last two games against Cal and Stanford. Oregon scored 77 points against a Nevada defense that Hawai’i also ripped to shreds while also scoring only 35 points against an FCS team in Montana. But when also considering their 27-21 loss to Auburn to begin the season, the Ducks are scoring less than 20 PPG against Power-Five conference opponents. It may very well be that the concern that Herbert lacked proven dynamic weapons at running back and wide receiver may have turned out to be the case. But second-year head coach Mario Cristobal has assembled a talented defense that is thriving under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The former Boise State coordinator is leading a group that is allowing just 9.8 PPG along with only 261.4 total YPG. The Ducks have talent at all three levels of the defense — and they held the Golden Bears to just 256 total yards of offense last week. Oregon has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Ducks have not allowed more than 7 points in each of their last four games after that first game against the Tigers — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in two straight games. Oregon stays at home where they have played 4 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes will want to avoid a shootout on the road at Autzen Stadium against this Ducks team — and Cristobal seems to be mimicking the identity of Nick Saban where he used to war as an assistant. Expect a lower scoring game led by the still underrated Oregon defense. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-10-19 |
Giants v. Patriots UNDER 43 |
Top |
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-10-19 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 57 |
Top |
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-2) takes the field again after their 41-3 win over Holy Cross back on September 28th as a 40-point favorite. NC State (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-13 loss at Florida State as a 7-point underdog on September 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Syracuse has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least five touchdowns. The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross from the FCS came after a 52-33 win at home over Western Michigan — and they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Syracuse has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Orange have struggled with their offensive line against bigger defensive lines from Power Five conferences. Syracuse only had two starters back from last year’s offensive line. The Orange are averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry this season while allowing 18 sacks already. The Wolfpack have two starters back from last year’s defensive line — but this unit has reloaded from year-to-year under head coach Dave Doeren as of late. Despite losing four players on their defensive line to the NFL last year, the NC State defense still produced a Havoc Rate of 10.8% which was a slight drop from their 11.3% Havoc Rate in 2017 with those four future NFLers. Now after playing their last two games at home, Syracuse goes back on the road where they are scoring only 22.0 PPG. The Under is 26-12-1 in the Orange’s last 39 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And int her last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points, Syracuse has played 5 of these games Under the Total. NC State has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a fellow ACC opponent. The Wolfpack have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Doeren will be sticking with sophomore quarterback Bailey Hockman who made his first career start in that game against the Seminoles. Hickman completed only 21 of 40 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown in that game taking over for redshirt sophomore Matthew McKay who started the first four games of the season. Finding the replacement for three-year starter, Ryan Finley, remains a work in progress for this team. NC State returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Wolfpack defense has played much better at home where they are allowing just 9.7 PPG and only 264 total YPG. Furthermore, NC State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the ACC. And in their last 20 games played on a Thursday night, the Under is 18-1-1 for the Wolfpack.
FINAL TAKE: While I am not sure how effective this nascent NC State offense will be with just four starters back from last season and with Hockman making only his second career start, Doeren should have his defense ready to roll tonight. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-07-19 |
Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 |
Top |
3-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-06-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Tulane v. Army UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
42-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) returns to the field after their 38-31 victory as a 4-point favorite over Houston back on September 19th. Army (3-1) looks to build off their 52-21 win over Morgan State two Saturdays ago as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Green Wave raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Cougars for that Thursday night game over two weeks ago — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Tulane has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow American Conference West opponent. The Green Wave rushed for 325 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards. Tulane is 26th in the nation with their run-first offense by averaging 6.56 Yards-Per-Play. But they only scored 6 points in their lone road game this season at Auburn. But head coach Willie Fritz’s team is underrated on the defensive side of the football — they held the Tigers to only 24 points in their first road game of the year. Overall, they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 340.2 total YPG. Tulane has eight starters back from last year’s team that played both Army and Navy — so this is a group experienced in dealing with the spread triple option. The Green Wave also returned all but one of their rotation players on their defensive line from last year’s group. Getting more than two weeks to prepare for this unique offense will certainly help. And Tulane has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. Now the Green Wave go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulane has placed 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Army has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Black Knights have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Army generated 483 yards of offense in that game, they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team does look to get their starting quarterback, Kelvin Hopkins, back for this game after he missed the last two games with a leg injury since the Black Knights heartbreaking 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan. Army plays outstanding defense — they are limiting their opponents to only 16.2 PPG along with just 287.7 total YPG with those numbers dropping to just 14.0 PPG when playing at home along with only 275.5 total YPG that they allow. The Black Knights thrive with their run defense as well as they are limiting their opponents to allow only 104 rushing YPG along with just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Army limited Michigan to just 108 rushing yards three weeks ago — and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Wave run-oriented spread offense. The Black Knights have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a bye week. Moving forward, Army has played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 21-17 score in New Orleans. Expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50 |
Top |
29-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-29-19 |
Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 48 |
|
10-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints scored 33 points last week despite only generating 265 yards of offense. New Orleans ranks just 21st in the NFL by averaging 339.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season with Teddy Bridgewater playing in seven of those twelve quarters after the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. The fact is that the Saints’ potent offense has been waning since Week 13 of last season in their 13-10 loss in Dallas to these Cowboys. After a torrid four-week stretch where New Orleans scored 175 points with a minimum of 31 points in each of those games, New Orleans only scored 31 points one more time for the rest of the season through the playoffs — and they averaged just 19.7 PPG over their final seven games. Two of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came from a 53-yard punt return for a touchdown as well as a 53-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That production obscures the mere 265 yards of offense they generated against the Seattle defense. New Orleans has then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The New Orleans defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all three of their games this season — but they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 336.0 total YPG. And while they have scored at least 31 points in all three of their games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Dallas offense has generated at least 474 yards in all three of their games as well — but they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight contests. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cowboys have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It was a low scoring game the last time these two teams played last November 29th with just 23 combined points scored. Look for both teams to rely on their ground games and emerging defenses. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-26-19 |
Eagles v. Packers UNDER 47.5 |
|
34-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-23-19 |
Bears v. Redskins UNDER 42 |
Top |
31-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)
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09-22-19 |
Rams v. Browns UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-22-19 |
Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-19 |
Central Florida v. Pittsburgh UNDER 61 |
Top |
34-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-20-19 |
Utah v. USC OVER 52.5 |
Top |
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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