09-07-19 |
West Virginia v. Missouri -13.5 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-19 |
Marshall +13 v. Boise State |
Top |
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville +19.5 |
|
35-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville was a complete dumpster fire last year under head coach Bobby Petrino who checked out from working hard as a football coach a number of years ago. The Cardinals were kryptonite to bettors last year as they suffered point spread losses by an average of -17.5 PPG — and they failed to cover the point spread by -21.8 PPG over their last five games when the players had clearly quit on the team. Kudos to those who consistently bet against Louisville down the stretch of the season (I just stayed away since any nominal increase in effort would have likely produced a point spread cover as double-digit dogs in those games). The Cardinals still have talent that first-year head coach Scott Satterfield has inherited including fourteen returning starters. While the Louisville defense allowed at least 52 points in each of their last five games, they held their first five opponents to a more manageable 26.0 PPG along with 385.8 total YPG — and those numbers are a better guide as to what to expect this season before this team went off the rails. Satterfield did a great job rebuilding the Appalachian State program — and while it will take awhile to rebuild the culture at Louisville, he will get this team playing hard again. The defense seems rejuvenated playing for defensive coordinator Bryan Brown after their humiliating end to last season — he brings an attacking system that emphasizes speed and smarts that was very effective for the Mountaineers. Satterfield also tapped Cort Dennison to serve as the co-defensive coordinator as he returns to the program after coaching at Oregon last year after a four-year stint as an assistant defensive coach for Petrino with the Cardinals — so he knows the players when they were younger and playing in a much more confident group. Notre Dame may be looking past this Louisville team after losing to the eventual national champions in the College Football Semifinals in their last game. Facing the Cardinals is a steep drop in glamour after hosting Michigan to begin last season. The Fighting Irish defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. On offense, the Irish are excited about what senior Ian Book can do as the starter for the entire season — they averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight regular-season starts last year (before being exposed by the outstanding Clemson defense). But Book is missing two of his important targets in wide receiver Michael Young and tight end Cole Kmet who are both out with collarbone injuries. Notre Dame is also dealing with some significant attrition on offense with running back Dexter Williams along with wide receiver Miles Boykin and tight end Alize Mack moving on to the NFL. The Irish are not quite at the level of the elite college football teams in their ability to just reload after seeing significant losses to the NFL. The last time Notre Dame lost this much talent, they suffered a 4-8 season the next year.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have won twenty-two of their last twenty-six games — but they have also won their last seven games decided by one possession including four net close wins by 8 points or less last season. While Kelly deserves credit for the leadership he has provided for this team to win these close games, those results help to inflate the perceived value of this team. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when laying 14.5 or more points. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 |
Top |
35-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-19 |
Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 81 |
Top |
31-49 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Oregon v. Auburn -3.5 |
|
21-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished off an 8-5 season by destroying Purdue by a 63-14 score in the Music City Bowl. Oregon (0-0) has seventeen starters back from their 9-4 campaign last year that concluded with a 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are intriguing to many bettors with all those returning starters to a program that once represented the Pac-12 on the national stage in high profile games like this. Oregon also has one of the top NFL quarterback projects in Justin Herbert who bypassed going pro to return to this team. But this Ducks team has made most of their noise as of late when playing at home in Autzen Stadium where they enjoy a significant advantage. But Oregon has lost eight of their last twelve games away from home on neutral fields or hostile environments. The Ducks were outscored in those games by -5.1 net PPG while scoring just 25 PPG. Oregon has also been outgained by -61 net YPG in those twelve away games. This compares unfavorably to their 12-2 record in their last fourteen games at home where they are scoring 44.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +19.4 PPG. Herbert was not nearly as effective away from home last year as well. The Ducks scored only 27.3 PPG on the road last year which was -7.5 PPG lower than their season average — and they also averaged just 209 passing YPG in those games which was almost 40 yards less than their 248 passing YPG mark overall. The Oregon defense is also an issue for this team if they wish to take a step up in competition — they ranked just 55th in the nation by allowing 385.9 total YPG. The Ducks have lost four straight games away from home when facing a ranked opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Auburn will be starting a freshman at quarterback in Bo Nix after he enjoyed a prolific high school career in Alabama. But this is a program that is well versed in high profile games like this. Besides their SEC competition including the Iron Bowl with Alabama every year, the Tigers defeated Washington in Atlanta on the neutral field of Mercedez Benz Stadium last year by a 21-16 score — and I consider that Huskies team to be much better than this Ducks team now. Auburn has won eleven of their last thirteen opening games to a new season. Oregon has received tons of accolades in the offseason with their five returning starters on the offensive line who lead the entire FBS with 153 combined starts between them. But the Tigers have five 5th year senior starters on their offensive line to help protect Nix. Furthermore, Auburn may very well have the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have won six straight games straight-up against Pac-12 opponents when playing on a neutral field with their win over the Huskies adding to that streak last year. While the departed Jarrett Stidham has looked very good in the preseason for the Patriots (and he just won the backup job today with New England releasing Brian Hoyer), Nix may be a better fit for the Gus Malzahn offense given his ability to move the ball with his legs. 10* CFB Oregon-Auburn ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Toledo +12 v. Kentucky |
|
24-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). THE SITUATION: Toledo (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Florida International in the Bahamas Bowl by a 35-32 score. Kentucky (0-0) has ten starters back from last year’s triumphant 10-3 squad who defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are the only team in the nation to not take a step backward regarding their win-loss record in the last six seasons. Seventh-year head coach Mark Stoops has done a fantastic job building this program. But this Kentucky team will be very hard-pressed to keep that streak alive this season. This is a program that is simply not used to losing All-SEC talent — but Stoops must replace three players on defense who have taken their talents to the NFL in safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Jordan Jones and their leader on defense in linebacker Josh Allen who bypassed going to the NFL as a junior last season. The Wildcats return only four starters on defense. The identity of the offense will also change with running back Benny Snell decided to go pro. Kentucky will rely on a committee of running backs this season while putting more of the onus on offense on junior quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats were a defense-first team last year that leaned heavily on Snell — a change in identity may not fit the skill set of Wilson who passed for only 1889 yards last year while throwing just 11 touchdowns along with eight interceptions. Kentucky finished 5-3 in SEC play last year but they were outgained by -18 net YPG in those games. This team has pulled ten upset victories in the last three years under Stoops — but being a double-digit favorite is a role they are not nearly as comfortable with embracing. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when laying the points. Additionally, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six straight non-conference games at home. Toledo will be relishing this opportunity to knock off a Power-Five school. They should get much better play from quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who returns for his senior season. Guadagni was slowed by both a concussion and a broken collarbone last year but still managed an efficient 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He is supported by a backfield of Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour who combined to rush for 1482 yards last year. The Rockets have typically been tough road warriors under Candle as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road. Toledo has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the month of August.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky would like to think they are simply reloading this season — but this is a program that more often than not finds themselves rebuilding after outlier seasons like last year. Look for the Rockets to give this Wildcats team all that they can handle. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Ball State v. Indiana UNDER 61.5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
Oklahoma State -13 v. Oregon State |
Top |
52-36 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.
FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
UMass v. Rutgers -14.5 |
|
21-48 |
Win
|
101 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (0-0) return thirteen starters from a team that finished just 1-11 last season. UMass (0-0) has eight starters returning from a team that was 4-8 last year playing as an independent.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chris Ash is on the hot seat in his fourth year in the program with a 7-29 record in his tenure. Rutgers has particularly struggled in Big Ten play where they are just 3-24 in the Ash era. It is very important for this team to get off to a good start which is why I expect a blowout tonight. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August. There are reasons for optimism. The Rutgers defense made dramatic improvements midseason last year when Ash started working directly with the group. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator saw that group allow 26.5 PPG over their last six games which was almost a 10 PPG improvement over the 36.3 PPG they allowed in their first six games. There is also continuity on offense for the first time in a decade with coordinator John McNulty returning for his second season overseeing that group. While the Scarlet Knights have not named a starter, don’t be surprised if McLane Carter is tapped over redshirt sophomore Artur Sitkowski who struggled last year. Carter is a graduate transfer from Texas Tech who was brought in to offer competition to Sitkowski who was last in the nation with a 76.4 Passer Efficiency Rating. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at home. UMass is an appetizing opponent for the Scarlet Knights as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Former Arkansas State offensive coordinator Walt Bell makes his debut as a head coach tonight for this program that lost all eight of their games last year by double-digits. Bell is considered a good recruiter but it will take time for that strength to start paying dividends wit this program. I expect a significant decline in the offensive production of this team with three-year starter, Andrew Ford, finally graduating. Bell has yet to name a starter between Michael Curtis, Randall West, and junior college transfer Andrew Brito. Without Ford under center, it will be very difficult for UMass to continue to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play on first down as they did last season which was 8th best in the FBS. On defense, is it good news or bad news that the Minutemen return only three starters from last years team that ranked 123rd in the FBS by allowing 484.8 total YPG? UMass surrendered at least 55 points in six games last season. The cupboard may be very bare for this independent program that lost seven of their top eleven tacklers from last year. The Minutemen registered only ten sacks last year while ranking 125th in the FBS by allowing 274.8 rushing YPG. UMass has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Minutemen have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: UMass has lost seven straight road openers since joining the FBS in 2012 — with the average losing margin being -26 PPG. Ash and this Scarlet Knights program needs a blowout victory to establish positive momentum so expect them to keep their foot on the accelerator all night. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-19 |
Utah -5 v. BYU |
|
30-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) looks to build off a 9-5 season that concluded on a down note with a 31-20 loss to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. BYU (0-0) finished 7-6 last season after defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 49-18 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: BYU returns seventeen starters from last year’s team along with twenty-six sophomores that played in games last season. But this team still lacks in experience and talent when compared to their in-state rival that is loaded with senior talent and future NFL players. The Cougars have lost eight straight Holy Wars against Utah. They lack a bell-cow running back with Squally Canada graduated from last year’s team. BYU will have a hard time running the football against a stout Utah defense that returns all four starters on the defensive line that finished 5th in the nation by allowing only 100.3 rushing YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first month of the season. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Utah is a sleeper team to make a run for the College Football Playoffs with fourteen returning starters. The Utes won their first nine games last year before enduring two tough injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss with both unable to play the final five games of the season. The Utah offense rattled off five straight games where they scored at least 40 points with a healthy Huntley and Moss. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has bolstered this offense by getting Andy Ludwig to return to the program to serve as their offensive coordinator. Utah averaged 36.9 PPG in their 2008 Sugar Bowl season with Ludwig coordinating the offense. The Utes defense is always quite good under Whittingham — they have held their opponents to under 20 PPG ten times in the past twenty-two seasons while surrounding more than 25.0 PPG just twice during that long span. Utah returns seven starters from a group that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG — and they also ranked 14th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 315.6 total YPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: BYU will be looking to avenge a 35-27 loss at Utah last November where they blew a 27-7 third-quarter lead. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Utes including their last four opportunities to host Utah. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-19 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
48 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Arizona v. Hawaii +11.5 |
Top |
38-45 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.
FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 |
|
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) kicks off their season looking to improve on a 7-6 campaign last year that concluded with a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. Florida (0-0) ended last year on a high note with a 41-15 blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field in Orlando, Florida at Camping World Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Gators come off a strong final impression from last season with their high profile victory over Michigan on New Year’s Day — but that result probably inflates their value for this opening contest. The Wolverines saw a number of their best players sit out that game to protect their potential draft value including two future first-round NFL picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush. And, frankly, Michigan was simply uninspired to play that game after suffering a humiliating loss at Ohio State to close out their season and ruin their potential College Football playoff chances. The bowl committee then linked the Wolverines with a Florida team that they had crushed by a 41-7 score in the 2015 Citrus Bowl before soundly defeating them again to open the 2017 season in AT&T Stadium in Dallas by a 33-17 score. For head coach Dan Mullen, it was easy to motivate his team to pull the upset over Michigan as a measuring stick for the growth of the program in his first year. The Gators return five starters on offense led by junior quarterback Feleipe Franks — but the biggest question mark for that unit is an offensive line that replaces four multi-year starters who had combined for 141 starts in their tenure. Outside of right tackle Jack Delance who is a former four-star recruit who transferred to Gainesville, Mullen has a crop of former three-star recruits who were previously relegated to backup roles before this season. This is a very difficult opening assignment against a stout Miami defense that once again likely sports one of the top ten defensive lines in the country. The Florida defense lost three players to the NFL. While they return eight starters, that unit has holes to fill at linebacker. Miami brings a renewed sense of optimism this season under first-year head coach Manny Diaz who was the defensive coordinator last season. Diaz accepted the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason before the Hurricanes accepted third-year head coach Mark Richt’s sudden “retirement” which compelled them to reach out to Diaz to wiggle out of his deal with the Owls and return to South Beach as the lead man. Diaz returns six starters from his defense that was 4th in the nation by holding opponents to just 278.9 total YPG. The offense was the bigger problem for the Hurricanes under Richt. Last year, Miami endured a four-game stretch where they failed to eclipse 21 points. Diaz addressed that issue by poaching Dan Enos who was Alabama’s quarterback coach last season (after first agreeing to join the offensive coaching staff at Michigan). The former Central Michigan head coach will install a “spread coast” offense that should be more dynamic. Diaz has also broken from the past by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams his starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB must have impressed in fall camp because he had stiff competition from returning starter in N’Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who was likely the incumbent quarterback in Columbus this year before the Buckeyes acquired Justin Fields in his transfer from Georgia. Williams has talent at his disposal at the skill positions that Enos’ new offense is designed to get into space.
FINAL TAKE: This Miami team suffered five net upset losses last season as they were a program that expected to find ways to lose games given the quarterback struggles of Perry and the graduated Malik Rosier. The slate is now clean — and this is a great opportunity to hit the ground running by pulling the upset against a high-profile in-state rival in the first meeting between these blue blood programs since 2013. The Gators benefitted from a +12 net turnover margin last year which was tied for 7th best in the nation. But on a neutral field in what will be very hot temperatures, their offensive line will be severely challenged by a tough defensive line that can rotate plenty of bodies. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has also covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two rivals. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Florida ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.
FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 57.5 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-19 |
Texas v. Georgia UNDER 60 |
|
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Georgia generated 454 yards in that loss to the Crimson Tide — and they have seen the Under go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Georgia plays outstanding defense as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and limiting them to only 311.2 total YPG. The Bulldogs’ pass defense is particularly stout as they hold their opponents to only 180.5 passing YPG which is 12th best in the country. Texas may struggle to move the football as they relied heavily on their passing attack. The Longhorns averaged 264.5 passing YPG which ranked 33rd in the nation — and they often went to the pass because they average only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry when running the football. Georgia has played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And in their last 10 bowl games, the Bulldogs have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Texas has played three straight games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing an Under while they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Longhorns have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while Texas surrendered 508 yards to the Sooners in that game, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that game with Oklahoma, the Longhorns have played better on the defensive side of the football where they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 338.0 total YPG. This is a team that has played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral field getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Longhorns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in bowl games.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are run-first oriented teams. With the Total in the high-50s approaching 60, expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-19 |
Texas +13.5 v. Georgia |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.
FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Washington v. Ohio State UNDER 56 |
|
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington held the Utes to just a 188 yards of offense in that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, the Huskies have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Buckeyes generated 525 yards of offense against the Wildcats’ defense — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Many bettors will take the Over based on the explosiveness of the Ohio State offense that ranks second in the nation by averaging 548.8 total YPG. The 62 points they put on Michigan was certainly impressive. But the Wolverines suffered some key injuries to a few of the best players on their defense in that game — and the unwillingness of their defensive coordinator to not get out of man coverage facilitated the Buckeyes’ ability to continually burn the Michigan secondary. Washington has perhaps the best secondary in the country and plays a base nickel scheme which should mitigate the advantages Ohio State enjoyed in their big rivalry game. The Buckeyes defense underperformed all season as well — the talent that team has on defense is much better than the 25.7 PPG they allowed suggests. Ohio State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Buckeyes have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State’s defense should play better with the extra weeks of preparation against a specific offense. Washington allowed more than 24 points only once this season. 20* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Washington +7.5 v. Ohio State |
|
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory by no more than a touchdown against a Pac-12 rival. The Huskies dominated the Utes in that game by limiting them to just 188 yards of offense while out-gaining them by +118 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington entered the year with high expectations — they were my Top Underlay Bet regarding future wagers to win the National Championship. Their opening game 5-point loss in Atlanta to Auburn placed those plays aspirations in jeopardy right away — but this is still a team that was three plays away from being undefeated this season with their other two losses occurring by just 3 and 2 points. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after winning at least five games in a row. And while Ohio State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the spread in three of their last four. The Buckeyes have an explosive offense but the defense has underachieved all season by allowing 400.3 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation. It was even worse away from the Horseshoe for this team as they surrendered 465.5 total YPG when playing on the road. Too often, the four and five-star players did not respond to coaching by committing fundamental blunders when it comes to assignment football. Ohio State gave up 38.0 PPG over their last three games. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: This will be Urban Meyer’s last game coaching the Buckeyes with him retiring after this game. While there are certainly sentiments inside the program that would love to have him go out a winner, wasn’t there a similar motivation to redeem Meyer after the scandals in the fall that triggered his three-game suspension? I find that analysis overplayed and likely accounted for in the point spread where they are laying around 7 points. This game presents the Washington football team the opportunity to earn another signature win after losses to Alabama in the College Playoff two years ago before their loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl last season and their opening week loss to Auburn this year. 10* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
LSU -7 v. Central Florida |
|
40-32 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has once again feasted on non-Power Five Conference competition this season. While the Knights put up Top-Five offensive numbers this season, they only faced one team ranked in the top-25 statistical defenses in the nation — and that was a Cincinnati team that surrendered 31 points to a Virginia Tech team that few would describe as an offensive dynamo this season. On paper, the Knights have a strong defense that ranked 25th in the nation by allowing only 21.3 PPG. But their defense also ranked 83rd in the FBS by allowing 423.6 total YPG. The huge weakness of this UCF defense is their run defense as they ranked 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 227.4 rushing YPG. Lazy observers might attribute that terrible number on them playing the strong rushing attack of Memphis twice who gashed them for 280 and then 401 yards in their two meetings. OK … and I suppose we get to throw out the 374 rushing yards Navy gouged them for because they run the run-dominant spread triple option. Well, what is the excuse for the 320 rushing yards Florida Atlantic racked up against them? Or the 252 rushing yards accumulated by Cincinnati? Or the 226 rushing yards that Temple produced? Or the 220 yards that the offensive juggernaut of UConn managed to compile? Or South Florida’s 196 rushing yards? LSU’s running back Nick Brossette should have a big day against the Knights’ defensive line that was run over by the smaller offensive line and less talented tailbacks. The reason that UCF was able to survive from their bend but not break defense was in large part due to some fortunate bounces with turnovers as they are 3rd in the nation by a +1.17 net turnover margin. Unfortunately for the Knights, outlier turnovers margins like that are rarely sustainable — and they do not face a friendly competitor this afternoon when it comes to giving the ball away. LSU averages 0.9 turnovers per game this season — and UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against opponents who do not turn the ball over more than 1.0 times per game. On offense, Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. UCF has averaged 7.76 and 6.80 Yards-Per-Play over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. LSU should be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their infuriating seven overtime loss to Texas A&M to end their season. They now face the intriguing fashion of attempting to expose the weaknesses of this upstart Group of Five Conference opponent has not lost a game in two seasons. Auburn appeared to be unmotivated by this challenge last season in the Peach Bowl as they were upset by 34-27 score. If that does not get the Tigers’ attention, I think they have the perfect head coach for this situation in Ed Orgeron who is a motivator and well-liked by his players — and his humble background should ensure he does not take this UCF team lightly. LSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on grass. And in their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: LSU hammered Georgia by 20 points — so they have the talent still that can hang with the very best teams in College Football. Central Florida’s twenty-five game winning streak has seen more than its share of good bounces and beats. I think the luck finally runs out against an LSU team coached by an individual who will not let them make the mistakes Auburn did last year. 10* CFB LSU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Kentucky +5.5 v. Penn State |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Kentucky (9-3) has won two straight games with their 56-10 victory at Louisville as a 17-point favorite to close out their regular season back on November 24th. Penn State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 38-3 victory against Maryland back on November 24th as a 12-point favorite. These two teams meet in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games away from home after a game where they did not allow more than 6 points. And while the Nittany Lions have not allowed more than 269 total yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. Penn State has a 4-1 record on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +0.8 net YPG. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with a team from the SEC. Run defense is an area of concern for this team as they allowed their opponents to rush for 168.4 rushing YPG. Enter running back Benny Snell and this Kentucky offense that ranked 35th in the nation by averaging 201.3 rushing YPG. The Wildcats gobbled 300 rushing yards in their victory over the Cardinals in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Wildcats dominated that game with Louisville as they out-gained them by +296 net yards which is a good sign for them now as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. This Kentucky team plays outstanding defense as they ranked 7th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16.3 PPG — and they also ranked 21st in the FBS by allowing only 332.2 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Wildcats outscored their five opponents on the road by +7.0 PPG. This stout defense should keep them in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has lost two bowl games in a row in the last two seasons after losing a heartbreaker to Northwestern by a 24-23 score in last year’s Music City Bowl. With star linebacker Josh Allen shunning the en vogue trend of NFL-caliber players skipping this game to “prepare” for the NFL draft, look for his teammates to rally around him as they look to finally win a bowl game in the six-year tenure of head coach Mike Stoops. 10* CFB Kentucky-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
LSU v. Central Florida UNDER 58.5 |
Top |
40-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-19 |
Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
27-22 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Iowa (8-4) has won two straight games with their 31-28 win over Nebraska to close out their regular season back on November 23rd as a 7.5-point favorite. Mississippi State (8-4) has won two games in a row as well with their 35-3 win at Ole Miss back on November 22nd as a 12.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Tampa Bay in the Outback Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State preceded their big rivalry game win over the Rebels in the Egg Bowl with a 52-6 win over Arkansas. But the Bulldogs may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference rivals. Mississippi State has won four of their last five games while covering the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are led by their defense that is tops in the nation by allowing only 12.0 PPG and just 268.4 total YPG. They have held their last three opponents to only 237.7 YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after holding their last three opponents to no better than 250 YPG. Furthermore, while Mississippi State has allowed just a field goal in the first-half of two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after not allowing more than 7 first-half points in two straight games. The problem for this Bulldogs team is that when they are playing away from home, they are scoring only 15.2 PPG while averaging just 317.6 total YPG. Their offense is too one-dimensional as they are averaging just 175.6 passing YPG behind senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald which ranks 110th in the nation. Mississippi State has committed no more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 major bowl games played in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field when the favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This Iowa team has an outstanding defense themselves that ran 11th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the FBS by giving up only 289.7 total YPG. Their defensive line has racked up an impressive 28.5 combined sacks. This strong defense helps them play well on the road — the Hawkeyes are outscoring teams by +19.6 PPG when playing away from Iowa City while out-gaining these opponents by +83.0 net YPG. Iowa has also outscored their last three opponents by +20.7 PPG while out-gaining them by +71.7 net YPG. Junior QB Nate Stanley will not have the services of his star tight end Noah Gant who is skipping this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft — but he still has Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson as another tight end target which is not too shabby. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take an underdog getting around 7 points in an expected low-adoring game offers us nice value. Mississippi State’s lack of a potent passing attack should help head coach Kirk Ferentz oversee a defensive scheme that will limit the Bulldogs’ scoring chances which will keep the Hawkeyes in this game. 20* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 56.5 |
Top |
13-52 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Michigan State +3 v. Oregon |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Stanford |
|
13-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss to Clemson as a 27-point underdog on December 1st in the ACC Championship Game. Stanford (8-4) has won three straight games with their 23-13 win at California on December 1st as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meet in El Paso, Texas in the Sun Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh had won four straight games to put themselves in position to play for the ACC Championship before a 21-point loss at Miami preceded their blowout loss to the Tigers. Head coach Pat Narduzzi should have his team ready to play in this game as his team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered an embarrassing game against the outstanding Clemson defense as he completed only 4 of 16 passes for a mere 8 yards. That eye-popping stat line should have served as motivation for Pickett to work even harder in bowl practices for this game. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to pass for at least 75 yards in their last game. While the play of Narduzzi’s defense remains a disappointment given the reputation he established as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State, the young talent on that unit should have benefitted from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. Pittsburgh saw their nine-year bowl streak snapped last year so this group should have something to prove in this game. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last games after a point spread win. Frankly, the Cardinal was fortunate to pull off that final win over the Golden Bears as they were out-gained by -23 net yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped to make up that difference in yardage — but Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where they had a +2 or better turnover margin. This is not a typical team for head coach David Shaw in his eighth year with the program. This Cardinal group ranked 122nd in the FBS by averaging just 108.3 rushing YPG. Superstar running back Bryce Love battled injuries all season — and he has decided to skip this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Stanford is very vulnerable on pass defense as they allowed 274.7 passing YPG which ranked 121st in the FBS. And when this team played away from Palo Alto, the Cardinal were out-gained by -90.3 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation has to be questioned for this underachieving Stanford team as they will be playing their third straight bowl game in a second-tier contest hosted in the State of Texas. This is the Cardinal’s second appearance at the Sun Bowl in the last three years as well. Pitt is motivated to redeem themselves from two bad losses to end the season — and the opportunity to knock off a blue-blood like Stanford has to be appealing. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Stanford CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the season culminating in their 41-20 blowout win over Marshall on December 1st as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (10-2) has won four of their last five games with their 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina as a 15.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Annapolis in the Military Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech ended the season with just twelve starters back from last year’s 9-4 season. Three-fourths of the incoming roster was just freshman and sophomores — so depth was very thin. Unfortunately for the Hokies, this team was hit hard with injuries including three starters on defense and their incumbent starting quarterback all being lost for the season. A handful of other contributors were also dismissed by third-year head coach Justin Fuente. This team could have folded up the tent and gone home to end their season after upsetting a solid Virginia team at the end of November — but this team played hard with the opportunity to play the Thundering Herd in a rescheduled game from earlier in the season and they earned the opportunity to play in this game. I think the extra week of bowl preparation will be of enormous benefit for Fuente defensive coordinator Bud Foster further develop this young team with the benefit of tailoring their practices to a specific opponent in the Bearcats. So, throw out the Hokies underwhelming offensive and defensive numbers for this one. Virginia Tech disappointed with six straight point spread losers before covering the point spread in their final two games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Virginia Tech is seeing the continued development of their 6’4 junior quarterback Ryan Willis who completed 18 of 26 passes for 312 with four touchdown passes against Marshall. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Virginia Tech has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Furthermore, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of December which is good evidence of the continued development this coaching staff sees in their players. Cincinnati has enjoyed a surprising 10-win season after only winning eight of their previous twenty-four games over the last two seasons. They fit the blueprint of a team happy to reach a bowl game for the first time in three seasons and may let up a bit when reading that they are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game. As it is, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Bearcats average 34.9 PPG and 458.2 total YPG this season which is 25th and 24th in the nation respectively — but those numbers plummeted in their six games away from home to just 25.3 PPG and 393.8 total YPG marks. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Additionally, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. Lastly, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech certainly played the more difficult schedule this season with the ACC being a better conference than the American Athletic Conference. Expect the Hokies to be an improved team this afternoon after a month of additional practice — they should (at least) keep this game close. 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama -14 |
Top |
34-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Alabama (13-0) won the SEC Championship Game back on December 1st with their 35-28 win over Georgia as an 11-point favorite. Oklahoma (12-1) won the Big 12 Championship Game with their 39-27 win versus Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Miami, Florida in the Orange Bowl for the second Semifinals showdown in the College Football Playoff.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The Sooners were playing with revenge on their minds when facing the Longhorns to begin this month — but I suspect they get exposed tonight for their subpar play on defense. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. These are very ominous signs when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The theory for Oklahoma backers is that they will simply outscore Bama in this game. Heisman Trophy winner Kyle Murray led the nation’s number one statistical offense in the nation — and he passed for 379 yards in their win over Texas. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Murray may not have his best target available — or at full strength — given the foot injury to Marquise Brown that he suffered in the Big 12 Championship that did not look very encouraging at the time. These circumstances are not encouraging given that this is a football team that has is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against SEC opponents. Alabama played their closest game of the season in their comeback win over the Bulldogs. Head coach Nick Saban typically gets his team to respond with a strong effort after a game where he can show them the bad game tape. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road game after a narrow victory of 7 points or less against a conference rival. The theory that Oklahoma will simply outscore Bama has to account for the fact that the Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide did allow 454 yards against Georgia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Alabama did take a step back on defense this season after losing eight starters along with their top six defensive backs from last year’s National Championship team. But this remains a unit loaded with blue-chippers (as opposed to Oklahoma) who should benefit from the extra week of bowl practices. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has suspended a few players — but they have the depth on the offensive line to sustain those losses for this game. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be 80-85% with his foot injury that he suffered against Georgia. I would worry about these issues more if they were playing a better defensive unit. Jaylen Hurts proved in the SEC Championship Game that he is willing and able to provide this team a spark if Tagovailoa is not effective. Ultimately, I think the Alabama defense will be able to generate at least some defensive stops — and I don’t think Oklahoma can slow down the Tide’s powerful offense. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 78.5 |
Top |
34-45 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Oklahoma generated 508 yards in that contest with the Longhorns — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 405 yards in their last contest. The Sooners led the nation by scoring 49.5 PPG while also leading the FBS with an average of 577.9 total YPG. They also led the country by averaging +196 YPG above their opponent’s defensive YPG average this season. QB Kyle Murray fits the prototype of the quarterback that has given Nick Saban’s defense fits over the years with his dual-threat capabilities. He passed for over 4000 yards while averaging 11.9 Yards-Per-Passing attempt. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 943 yards with 642 of those yards accounted for from designed running plays where he averaged 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Texas A&M’s QB Kellen Mond rushed for 129 yards against the Bama defense with 92 of those yards coming from designed plays earlier this season. But the bigger defensive concerns below to the Sooners. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. Oklahoma has paled 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Alabama’s defense looked vulnerable against a Georgia team that generated 454 yards against them. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Alabama has also played 11 of their last 15 bowl games Over the Total — and they have seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: The Total set is at Big 12 level heights in the high-70s which is not uncommon for Oklahoma games. Alabama has a better offense than what the Sooners have seen all season. The pressure to continue scoring creates a self-fulfilling prophecy — expect a wild high-scoring game. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Alabama ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame +12.5 v. Clemson |
|
3-30 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that raised their level of play on offense when head coach Brian Kelly elevated sophomore Ian Book to be his starting quarterback as he completed 70% of his passes while averaging 8.84 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt to give the offense a legitimate deep threat. Clemson has been vulnerable against vertical passing attacks — they have allowed Texas A&M to pass for 430 yards against them along with South Carolin to pass for 510 yards. The Irish have the size in the wide receiving corps with 6’4 Miles Boykin, 6’4 Chase Claypool and tight end Alize Mack all have size advantages over a smaller Clemson secondary. The Irish have averaged at 462 Yards-Per-Game in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Notre Dame is ab outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have rushed for 301 and 350 yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. Their defense did hold Pittsburgh to an incredible 8 passing yards in the ACC Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. That unit will miss Dexter Lawrence after the 340-lb defensive tackle was suspended for this game for a positive PED test. Moving forward, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against opponents outside the ACC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field laying 10.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has played a challenging schedule this season and answered the bell every time. Their good defense, as well as their advantage with the height of their receiving targets, should help them keep this game very close. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Clemson ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 58 |
Top |
3-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have won three straight games by at least three touchdowns — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at least their last two games by 21 points. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Clemson once again boasts an outstanding defense that ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the FBS by only giving up 276.7 total YPG. Those defensive numbers drop to 12.8 PPG and 252.0 YPG allowed in their six games played away from home. The Tigers are going to make things very difficult for this Irish offense. Clemson leads the nation by pressuring the quarterback in 45.8% of opponent passing plays. They also rank tops in the country by limiting opposing rushers to just 0.9 Yards-Per-Carry before delivering the first hit on the runner. Notre Dame has relied on clean holes from their offensive line as they average 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry before their rusher is hit which ranks 37th in the nation. While the Clemson will be without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for this game as he was suspended for this contest for positive PED test, their defensive line is loaded with talent and depth. This group should be even more ferocious with the extra rest and preparation — and this team has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Tigers do have a dynamic offense that became more powerful when freshman Trevor Lawrence took over under center early in the season. Clemson has scored 98 points over their last two games — but they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Clemson has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they generated 473 yards of offense against the Trojans defense, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Irish surrendered 349 passing yards in that game with USC — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Notre Dame is an outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Fighting Irish have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog giving 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a matchup between two similar teams that employ run-first offenses that help to protect talented but inexperienced quarterbacks — and both teams like to rely on their strong defensive units. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
South Carolina v. Virginia +5 |
|
0-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
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At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). THE SITUATION: Virginia (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 34-31 overtime loss on the road at Virginia Tech as a 4-point favorite on November 23rd. South Carolina (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 28-3 win over Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia endured a brutal ending of their season by losing their last two games on the road in overtime with setbacks to the Hokies and Georgia Tech. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall should have his team ready to play as the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games that were played on the road. The Cavaliers’ offense did average 6.33 Yards-Per-Play against Virginia Tech — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Virginia plays good defense which is typical of a Mendenhall-coached team. The Caves rank 27th in the nation by allowing just 21.8 PPG — and they also rank 23rd in the FBS by allowing only 337.2 total YPG. This strong defensive play helped them out-gain their opponents by +22.8 net YPG when playing on the road. Virginia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. South Carolina enter this game undermanned with a host of injuries along with their top wide receiver Deebo Samuel sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Gamecocks held the Zips to just 260 yards of offense in their victory to begin the month — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. South Carolina had covered the point spread in their previous two games before putting on the brakes at halftime against Akron after taking a 28-3 lead to then fail to cover the -28.5 point spread. But the Gamecocks has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Defense remains a concern for this team who allowed their last three Power-Five conference opponents to average a whopping 629 YPG. They are being out-gained when playing away from home by -29.6 PPG due to their defense that surrenders 499.8 total YPG. Not surprisingly, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as the favorite. Run defense is the primary concern for this team as they rank 93rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 194.5 rushing YPG. To make matters worse for the Cavaliers, they are missing two of their key players on defense due to injuries to defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon. Virginia’s solid running back Jordan Ellis who rushed for 920 yards this season should be able to find space to move the football. The Gamecocks will rely on the arm of QB Jake Bentley — but he faces a tough Cavaliers’ pass defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing only 180.1 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia is undervalued in this spot given those two overtime losses. The Cavaliers play the better defense — and they face a Gamecocks team that is missing some pieces. Expect a close game. 10* CFB South Carolina-Virginia ABC-TV Special with the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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