At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666) in the Garden Classic. THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-1) looks to rebound from their 88-64 upset loss to Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (7-3) returns to the court for the first time since their 89-68 win against Hofstra as a 15.5-point favorite last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The word came out at 6 PM ET that the Blue Devils will not have the services of their point guard Tyrese Proctor for the third straight game as he recovers from a leg injury that has kept him out of their previous two games. In this showdown with an outstanding Baylor team, Duke will miss his 10.3 Points-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is the team’s best on-the-ball defender. After an upset loss at Georgia Tech early in the month, the Blue Devils followed up their 80-56 victory against Charlotte with their win against the Pride last week. But Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games under head coach Jon Scheyer after winning their two previous games by double-digits. The Blue Devils nailed 55.0% of their shots against Hofstra which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. Duke’s defense was shaky in that game last week as they allowed the Pride to make 50% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in a game where they were the favorite. Duke has been the favorite in all of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 25 games under Scheyer after being the point spread favorite in their previous four or more games. We suspected that Baylor was due for a flat performance against the Spartans on Saturday that Michigan State was desperate to win — and the Bears dug a big hole for themselves by trailing at halftime by a 45-17 score. They allowed Sparty to make 63.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 60% or more of their shots. They shot 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last contest. Additionally, Baylor has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bears lead the nation by making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they could exploit a Duke team that ranks 225th in the nation by allowing their opponents to take 38.6% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range. Baylor takes 46% of their shots at the rim — and they rank 20th in the nation in free throw rate. They also rank eighth in the nation by pulling down 38.5% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 10* CBB Baylor-Duke ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests with their 77-70 upset loss at Nebraska as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 78-60 victory against Seton Hall as an 11-point favorite back on December 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State opened the season ranked fourth in the nation in the AP poll — but a difficult early schedule, some bad luck, and poor shooting has contributed to an underwhelming 4-5 start. The Spartans opened the season with an overtime loss at home to a James Madison team that remains unbeaten. They then lost to highly-rated Duke and Arizona. They hosted a good Wisconsin team in their Big Ten opener in a loss — and they then lost at Nebraska last weekend in their first true road game of the season by playing their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Cornhuskers to make 50.0% of their shots. The Spartans still rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The silver lining from that loss to Nebraska was that they made 8 of 17 (47.1%) of their shots from behind the arc. Sparty has been ice cold from deep this season as they rank 301st in the nation by making only 29.5% of their shots from 3-point range. Despite this slow start, Michigan State still ranks 33rd in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. The Spartans also rank 23rd in the country in another power ranking system that does not consider preseason rankings and assumptions — so despite their five losses, the underlying in-season metrics place them still that high. Playing ninety minutes away in Detroit against an undefeated Baylor team gives head coach Tom Izzo a great opportunity to get his team going. As it is, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss against a Big Ten rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Baylor made 50.9% of their shots in their victory against Seton Hall almost two weeks ago. The Bears have made at least 51.4% of their shots in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making 50% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. Baylor leads the nation by making 46.1% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may have to knock off some rust after the long break between games. The analytics also suggest they have overachieved their 3-point shooting expectations by at least 10%. The Bears have played two straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. And while Baylor has enjoyed halftime leads of 10, 26, and 25 points in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying halftime leads of at least five points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams not making more than 30% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has played Auburn and Florida — but their strength of schedule still ranks only 255th in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. On the other hand, Sparty’s strength of schedule ranks the 45th most difficult entering the day.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams making at least 37% of their shots from 3-point range. And while the Bears are making 52.0% of their shots overall, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of the last 14 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots from the field. 20* CBB Baylor-Michigan State Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-1) had their seven-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 72-53 upset loss against Drake on a neutral court in Henderson, Las Vegas, on Saturday.  Weber State (5-3) has won two of their last three games after their 78-50 victory against Cal-Poly SLO as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada only made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where 125 or fewer combined points were scored. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They return home where they are 6-0 on their home court while making 47.7% of their shots which is generating 83.8 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +20.5 net PPG — and they are holding their visitors to 37.3% shooting. Nevada has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Weber State raced out to a 52-22 lead against the Mustangs on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a halftime lead by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a game where they had a 20-point or better halftime lead. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are led by 6’6 swingman Dillon Jones who bypassed the NBA last spring to return to the team. But he does not get enough support from his supporting cast in generating points. Weber State ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal (eFG) percentage — and their 30.8% shooting clip from behind the arc and their 44.0% mark with 2-pointers rank 258th and 327th in the nation. Nevada ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 38th with an opponent’s eFG of 46.3%. The Wolf Pack holds their opponents to 39.5% shooting — and Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower. On the road, the Wildcats are only making 38.3% of their shots which is resulting in only 61.2 PPG. And while they are holding their opponents to 42.1% shooting, that shooting percentage rises to 46.9% when playing on the road. Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada is outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (16-7) has won three of their last four games after their 133-129 victory in overtime against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Indiana (13-9) has won four of their last five games after their 131-123 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The encouraging aspect of that victory was they played one of their better games on defense by holding the Bulls to just 41.2% shooting. Defense has been the biggest issue that first-year head coach Adrian Griffin needs to focus on moving forward. The Pacers nailed 56.5% of their shots against the Pistons which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing a Central Division rival in their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against a division rival.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be motivated to avenge their 128-119 upset loss against the Pacers as a 5-point favorite on December 7th in the In-Season Tournament Semifinals in Las Vegas which followed up their 126-124 upset loss in Indiana in their previous meeting this season on November 9th. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). THE SITUATION: Hofstra (6-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 71-68 upset loss at St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (6-3) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 80-56 victory at home against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PRIDE PLUS THE POINTS: Hofstra allowed the Billikens to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They only made 28% of their shots from behind the arc as well despite them ranking 41st in the nation with a 37.9% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Pride can redeem themselves from that loss by this opportunity to make a statement against the Blue Devils. Hofstra is a dangerous team that ranks 20th in the nation in returning Division I experience from a group that finished 16-2 in the Colonial Athletic Association last year. One of the Bracketology metrics projects the Pride as a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament — and those numbers also currently assign the Blue Devils as only a seven-seed . Head coach Speedy Claxton deploys a Slow Killer style of play designed to upset teams like Duke. Hofstra plays at a slow pace — they average 67.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Pride lives (and dies) by the 3-point shot — they rank 12th in the nation by accruing 40% of their points from behind the arc. The Blue Devils are vulnerable to teams that rely on 3-point shooting as they allow their opponents to take 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Hofstra will also take full advantage of their opportunities from the charity stripe as they rank third in the nation by making 81.0% of their free throws. They are led by one of the best mid-major players in the nation with Tyler Thomas who is scoring 24 PPG. Duke, as always, was considered a major player to win the national championship after they followed up their narrow loss at home to Arizona (the number one ranked team in the nation) with a convincing victory against Michigan State. But the shine has gone for this Blue Devils team after losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech along with the Spartans looking shaky with a 4-5 record. While Duke returned plenty of talent that lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, they miss Derrick Lively II who provided them a rim protector in his freshman season before leaving for the NBA. The Blue Devils allow their opponents to make 49.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 147th in the nation. Duke did play their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding the 49ers to 40.4% shooting — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, this is Duke’s second game this month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. It is somewhat ominous to fade the Blue Devils when playing at home at Cameron Indoor Arena — but while they rank 17th in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency in one of the power ranking metric systems I follow, they do fall to 30th when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Hofstra ranks 93rd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency — but they do rise to 80th when playing away from home according to those metrics. The Pride have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. Hofstra has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog. 10* CBB Hofstra-Duke ESPN2 Special with the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (5-3) has lost two games in a row after their 90-67 loss to Indiana State as a 7-point underdog on Tuesday. Monmouth (4-4) returns to the court after losing their second straight game in a 91-87 loss at Cornell as a 12.5-point underdog on November 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINT(S): Northern Illinois only made 39.1% of their shots against the Sycamores in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. But the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up loss at home in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after a double-digit loss at home. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.4% of their shots in what was the second-worst defensive effort of their season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. The Huskies are battle-tested already with losses to Marquette, Northwestern (who upset Purdue), and the Sycamores who all rank in the top-60 according Ken Pomeroy’s advanced analytics. They also beat an Appalachian State team that upset Auburn. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Monmouth nailed 53.3% of their shots against the Big Red which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they may be rusty in their return to the court with a week and a half between games. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after losing two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Monmouth has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a pick ‘em or a favorite of up to six points. And in their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 150s, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread 17 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). THE SITUATION: Alabama (6-2) enters this game coming off an 89-65 win against Arkansas State as a 25-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (8-1) rebounded from their loss at Northwestern with an 87-68 victory against Iowa as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral favorite at the Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, Ontario.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think the market is giving enough respect to this Alabama team after they got upset by Ohio State and Clemson earlier this season. Head coach Nate Oaks is still working out some chemistry issues with two transfers coming in, Aaron Estrada from Hofstra and Grant Nelson from North Dakota State, adjusting to his analytics-driven 3-pointer or shoot-at-the-rim tendencies. The Crimson Tide have also struggled with their defense — but they should get better as the season moves on. This is a big opportunity to make a statement against one of the top teams in the country. Alabama has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Crimson Tide ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 10th in the nation by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are taking 3s in 42.8% of their shots from the field, the 64th most aggressive rate from 3-point land. After making 11 shots from distance in their loss to Clemson, they nailed 13 shots from 3-point range against the Red Wolves — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. Many consider Purdue the best team in the country after beating Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette in the Maui Invitational — but they demonstrated their vulnerabilities in their loss at Northwestern last week. While they did follow that up with a 19-point win against the Hawkeyes, Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contest. Head coach Matt Painter has his team playing at a faster pace this season after his team was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA Tournament last March. After playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, Purdue is shooting quicker this season — and their adjusted possessions per game of 70.0 ranks 129th in the nation. While this adjustment should help them avoid getting upset by potential Cinderellas in the Big Dance, the Boilermakers are still vulnerable to teams like Alabama that maximize efficiency on offense. Purdue is making 39.7% of their 3-pointers — but they only take 35.9% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 216th in the nation. The Total set is set in the 160s with the Boilermakers playing at the faster pace — and this plays into the Crimson Tide’s style of play as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 160s.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Purdue-Alabama Fox-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-8) has lost two games in a row after their 111-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Houston (9-9) snapped their three-game losing streak with the 110-101 upset win against Oklahoma City as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 41.8% of their shots against the Clippers which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Jamal Murray did return to the court in that game and scored 23 points in a losing effort. After missing ten games early in the season, Murray returned in the Nuggets’ game against the Rockets on November 29th before wrenching his ankle which kept him out another two contests. Denver has an 8-2 record when Murray plays this season. After completing their three-game road trip, the Nuggets return home where they have been dominant with a 9-0 record with a +11.0 net point differential. Denver’s role players are more effective when playing at home — and the Nuggets offensive attack is nearly unstoppable when playing at the Bell Center. They are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which is generating 121.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams from the Southwest Division. Houston held the Thunder to joust 42.5% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 road games after an upset victory as a home underdog.  Houston may be the most improved team in the league this season - -and they have been particularly tough to beat at home where they have a 9-1 record. They rank second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 102.2 when playing on their home court. But things change dramatically when they go on the road where they are the only winless team left this season. The Rockets are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG — and they plummet to 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 118.8. Jalen Green has been much better at home as well where he is making 45.2% of his shots and 37.1% of his shots from behind the arc — but he is shooting just 38.4% when on the road with a 31.9% mark from 3-point range. Houston has a 9-8 record on the road with a -9.0 net point differential. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has revenge on their mind after losing in Denver against the Nuggets by a 134-124 score on November 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). THE SITUATION:  Sacramento (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 127-117 upset loss to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament on Monday. Phoenix (12-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 1.5-point underdog in the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Kings only made 44.7% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — and they allowed New Orleans to shoot 54.0% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a loss at home. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have allowed their last four opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after allowing four straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix has been without Bradley Beal who has only played three games this season — and they will also be without Kevin Durant and Grayson Allen tonight as they deal with nagging injuries. The Suns played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday as they held the Lakers to just 37.3% shooting — and their 49.3% shooting percentage was the best mark for them in their last five contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in five days. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in the Semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-10) has won three of their last four games after their 127-117 upset victory at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Monday in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. Los Angeles (13-9) has won three of their last four games after their 106-103 victory at home against Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday in their In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals contest. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans is better than their record given some injuries they sustained early on. C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado have missed time — but perhaps it was the absence of Trey Murphy that was the biggest blow to this team since his outshooting is critical to this team. With Murphy back on the court, opposing teams have to account for his outside shooting — and that opens up space for Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in the paint. Ingram scored 30 points against the Kings on Monday and Williamson has been playing as well as he did in his outstanding second season in the league before injuries began to hold him back. The Pelicans have a remarkable +31.7 Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin in their 101 possessions with Murphy healthy and on the court this season. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They have made 49.4% or more of their shots in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight contests. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after beating a Pacific Division in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a straight-up win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a victory by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games in a row — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. The Lakers have been feasting against the lesser teams in the league — they have only one victory against a top-ten team in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin -- and their strength of schedule rates as the 11th easiest in the league. There is a notion that the Lakers will have a “home court advantage” with this game being played in Las Vegas which is “just” a four-hour drive on I-15 from Los Angeles. While I do think the Lakers will enjoy the crowd edge tonight, I find home advantages coming mostly from familiarity with the court (or field) and the convenience of being at home — and while there are times when the cheering crowd can help a team (or impact the opponent), I doubt the Vegas crowd will achieve that tonight. Jeff Sherman at the SportsBook at Westgate and the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas only assigned a half point for the Lakers for a crowd edge tonight in response to the market.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (6-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 123-117 loss to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (7-14) has won two games in a row after their 124-118 win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball for a few weeks given a right ankle injury he suffered last week. While Charlotte needs their point forward back to have any serious designs on making the Play-In Tournament, head coach Steve Clifford has some viable options to replace his production in the short term. Terry Rozier has missed some time with injuries — but he is back and can run the offense in Ball’s absence. Rozier scored 37 points in a win against Brooklyn last Thursday after the Ball injury. He has scored 23.3 Points-Per-Game in his last four games. The Ball injury also allows for rookie Brandon Miller to get more playing time — he has been solid so far this season and looks much better than Scoot Henderson who they bypassed with the second pick in the NBA draft. The Hornets also have Miles Bridges back after he completed his 30-game suspension for his domestic violence issues — he has scored 20.5 PPG and added 7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game since his return. Charlotte was competitive against a red-hot Timberwolves team without Ball on Saturday as they held a four-point lead with under five minutes to go before blowing that game. The key for this team in the short term is to simply play better on defense. They allowed Minnesota to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games and second-worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. The Hornets will benefit from the extra days off — look for them to push the pace against a Bulls team that has the sixth-oldest roster in the league (and they play at the slowest pace in the NBA). Charlotte has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Chicago has pulled off two straight upset victories with a win against Milwaukee with their triumph against the Pelicans on Saturday. The Bulls nailed 54.5% of tighter shots which was the best shooting effort of the season for them. They are playing with Zach LaVine who is dealing with a foot injury — and that may have opened up the offense with more of their field goals coming from passes rather than isolation. Their hot shooting overcame a 35-15 deficit in free throw attempts to New Orleans — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outshot at the free throw line by 20 or more shots at the charity stripe. Chicago has been wildly inconsistent this season with rumors abound that management is primed to break up the core of this team. Their victory against the Pelicans was the first time all season has won two games in a row. The Bulls' play on defense has been underwhelming as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG. Chicago has been unreliable as a favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored while failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are scoring only 107.7 PPG — and the Hornets have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 42 games against teams who do not score more than 108 PPG. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-4) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 86-83 loss in overtime at Oregon as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Indiana (6-1) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 65-53 win at home against Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was expected to take a step back this season after losing Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin to the first round of the NBA draft along with Hunter Dickinson transferring to Kansas. But despite all that talent, the chemistry of that team was not great. The Wolverines missed going to the NCAA Tournament with an 18-16 final record — their season was defined by a rough 4-13 record in games decided by six points or less. Head coach Juwan Howard brought in several impact transfers to help restructure the identity of his team. Olivier Nkamhoua comes in from Tennessee to develop his post-up play from Howard after being a contributor for the Volunteers for four years. He scored 27 points against Duke in the NCAA Tournament last season — and his defense is needed for this team. Nimari Burnett is a former McDonald’s All-American with immense talent who has been slowed by injuries while playing at Texas Tech and then Alabama. Dug McDaniel has stepped in as a big-time scorer at point guard for this team in his sophomore season after his trial-by-fire last season. He scored 30 points in the loss to the Ducks — that was a heartbreaker with Oregon nailing a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to win that game. Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Furthermore, while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. This is the Wolverines’ second game since November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They return home for the first time since getting upset by Fresno State in their first loss of the season — but they are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which has resulted in 92.3 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played a difficult schedule with three of their losses against Memphis, Texas Tech, and Oregon being against teams that rank in the top-52 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Pomeroy’s metrics rank the Wolverines schedule as the 27th most difficult in the nation. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, rank just 230th in the nation according to Pomeroy in their non-conference schedule. Indiana held the Terrapins to just 35.7% shooting which was tied for the lowest opponent field goal percentage so far this season. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering two or more games in a row as the favorite. Indiana lost four of their top five players from last year’s team that reached the Round of 32 in the Big Dance — and head coach Mike Woodson leaned on the transfer portal as well to replenish his roster. By adding 7’0 Kel-El Ware from Oregon, Indiana measures as the fifth tallest team in the nation — but the Wolverines rank 67th in size according to that metric. Despite their big frontline, the Hoosiers are only pulling down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 246th in the nation. Defensive rebounding has been a problem for Michigan as they rank 243rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.7% of their missed shots. Defending the perimeter has also been a problem for the Wolverines with their opponents making 39.4 of their 3-pointers, the 343rd worst mark in the nation. But Indiana ranks 350th in the nation by making only 25.0% of their 3-pointers. And while the Hoosiers rank fourth in the nation in getting to the free throw line, the Wolverines rank 39th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. This is not a good matchup for the Hoosiers.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana is playing their first true road game of the season tonight after playing three games on neutral courts. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. Michigan has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite against Big Ten opponents. 10* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 106-103 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Los Angeles (11-8) has won two of their last three games after their 133-107 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 41.1% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 contests and tied for the worst field goal percentage for the season. They also got outrebounded by a 51-36 margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have still covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games. Oklahoma City will likely be without Josh Giddey tonight given the police investigation that he was involved with a minor — but the Lakers will have several absences as well. Los Angeles is without Rui Hachimura, Jarred Valentine, and Gabe Vincent are out with injuries while Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish are questionable. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win on the road. And in their last 18 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and the Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost two games in a row after their 115-103 loss at Brooklyn as a 1-point underdog last night. Phoenix (11-6) has won seven games in a row after their 116-113 upset win at New York against the Knicks as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 38.6% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.8. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 38.0% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 18.9 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of            Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix’s upset win against the Knicks cashed the over for bettors who had tickets at 218.5 — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games on the road after playing a game that went Over the Total. The team is adjusting to their first-year head coach Frank Vogel — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when on a seven-game or more winning streak. Phoenix comes into this game at less than full strength with Bradley Beal still out for this team with a back injury. Kevin Durant is questionable with a foot injury that has kept him out the last two games — and Grayson Allen is questionable with an illness. The Suns have a big game on deck two days from now against Denver so they may be looking ahead as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Raptors are shooting 46.4% from the field this season — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams making 46% or more of their shots from the field. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss to Kansas as a 1.5-point underdog in the Maui Invitational last Wednesday. North Carolina (5-1) rebounded from their overtime loss to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis with an 87-72 win against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite in that tournament on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee faced a gauntlet in the Maui Invitational with a victory against Syracuse before losing to Purdue and then the Jayhawks — two teams that rank in the top-eight teams in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Pomeroy ranks their schedule as the 15th most difficult in the nation so far this season. They should play better tonight even against a very good Tar Heels team. Their 31.0% shooting percentage against Kansas was their worst shooting effort of the season. And while the Jayhawks’ 51.9% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s shooting percentage against them this season, they still rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. The Volunteers only made 33.3% of their shot against the Boilermakers — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to make at least 37% of their shots in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 55 of their last 88 games after losing two games in a row. And while they did not cover the point spread in those final two games in Maui, Tennessee has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. North Carolina nailed 49.1% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Tar Heels have scored at least 81 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while this is their third game since last Thursday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing for at least the third time in the last seven days. This is not a great matchup for this North Carolina team that may be without starter Cormac Ryan who missed the Arkansas game with an ankle injury. The Volunteers launch 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Tar Heels rank 312th in allowing open 3s. North Carolina is making 36.9% of their shots from 3-point range — but now they face a Tennessee team that ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents making only 26.7% of their 3-pointers. The Tar Heels only make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 157th in the nation. And while North Carolina plays at a fast pace and averages 62 shots per game, the Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Pomeroy ranks North Carolina’s schedule as the 127th most difficult so far this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And while Tennessee is outscoring their opponents by +12.2 net Points-Per-Game, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 10* CBB Tennessee-North Carolina ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of            Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on  Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on  Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.

FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776) in the ESPN Events Invitational. THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 85-68 loss at Clemson as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Virginia Tech (3-1) has won two games in a row with their 98-76 victory against Wofford as an 18-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Field House in Kissimmee, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an “In Leon Rice, I Trust” situation after Boise State lost their first game of the season. The head coach has led his team to the NCAA Tournament in two straight seasons — and he has three starters back from that group. Losing point guard Marcus Shaver to graduation is a big loss — but Rice has several players auditioning to take on those responsibilities. Rice also hit the transfer portal by bringing in Cam Martin from Kansas and O’Mar Stanley from St. John’s to offer this team great depth. They got burned on the road at Clemson because the Tigers nailed 8 of their 15 shots from 3-point range en route to their 50.8% shooting clip. Rice has overseen a top-30 defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the previous two seasons — and opponents made only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc last year so their perimeter defense should tighten up tonight. Boise State did limit a solid San Francisco team to just 4 of 19 shooting (21.0%) from behind the arc earlier this month so the Clemson game may have simply been an aberration in this young season. The Dons rank 79th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Broncos are usually very tough when defending their defensive glass — they have ranked 17th and 11th in the nation in the previous two seasons in Defensive Rebounding Rate. So far this season, Boise State is allowing their opponents to pull down 31.7% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation after the Tigers pulled down 41.9% of their missed shots. The Broncos got outrebounded by a 40-25 margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Virginia Tech has benefited from an easy schedule with their victory against Wofford being the best line on their resume so far this season — the Terriers rank 256th in the nation according to Pomeroy. Their most challenging opponent was South Carolina who they lost to on a neutral court by two points. This is the Hokies second game in the last eight days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I have two overriding concerns about this team. First, while the strength of this team is their backcourt, the X-factor for this team was the development of Rodney Rice who surprised the program with his decision to transfer earlier this month. Virginia Tech still has a nice backcourt led by Sean Padulla and Hunter Cattoor — but it was their priced top recruit in 2022 in Rice who had the potential to be a go-to scorer with his upside in athleticism. Secondly, the Hokies underachieved last season by going 8-12 in the ACC primarily because of the substandard play of their defense — they ranked 139th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While head coach Mike Young knows that the play of his defense must improve, they only rank 122nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency despite a strength of schedule that Pomeroy ranks as the 347th most difficult. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after winning two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Tournament play. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Boise State-Virginia Tech ESPNU Special with the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-5) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 129-93 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans (7-7) has won three of their last four games after that contest.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Sacramento might have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Pelicans to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Their 37.9% shooting was their worst field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they got outrebounded by a 55-36 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards. Sacramento has a 6-2 record with De’Aaron Fox healthy — he missed five games due to injury. They have an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.1 when he is on the court — and their Adjusted Net Efficiency plummets to -3.9 without him. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher including four of those five circumstances this season. New Orleans played their best game of the young season in their 36-point victory on Monday. Their 54.3% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort of the season — and the Kings’ 37.9% shooting clip was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Pelicans all year. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit upset win as a home underdog. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while New Orleans has made at least 51.1% of their shots in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five or more games in a row. The Pelicans remained undermanned with C.J. McCollum out with a collapsed lung and Trey Murphy out with a knee injury. Larry Nance, Jr. is questionable with a rib injury. The Kings may be without Keegan Murray who is questionable with a back injury.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 road games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (11-3) was on a six-game winning streak before their 121-118 upset loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (10-4) has won five games in a row with their 142-129 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jayson Tatum has been listed as questionable all day dealing with a non-COVID illness — but the team has announced he is available to play tonight and he looked good in the video I saw of him taking 3-pointers in the shoot around early this evening. Boston only made 43.3% of their shots on Monday in what was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning four of their last five games. This Boson team leads the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin of +10.8. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season by nailing 58.5% of their shots on Monday. While the Bucks have made at least 51.8% of their shots in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four or more games in a row. The Bucks have scored at least 128 points in four straight contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 125 or more points in four straight contests. The problem for this team is on the other end of the court where they rank 22nd in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 116.2 — and they will be without Jae Crowder who is one of their better defensive players tonight due to an abdominal injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as the dog. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657) in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: Marquette (4-0) advanced in this tournament with their 71-69 victory against UCLA as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. Kansas (4-0) had the easiest opening-round draw as they beat the host Chaminade team in an 83-56 victory yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the SimpliFi Arena at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Marquette will enter this game with confidence after beating two very good teams in a row in Illinois and then the Bruins yesterday. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory by three points or less. Head coach Shaka Smart’s teams have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after a win by three points or less. Marquette returns almost every contributor except big man Olivier-Maxence Prosper from last year’s group that won both the Big East regular season title and the Big East tournament — that team finished tenth in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s final rankings using his metrics. This is an experienced and tough team led by perhaps the best point guard in the nation by senior Tyler Kolek. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and Smart’s teams have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games when playing for the second time in three days. Marquette has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 road games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Kansas has beaten Kentucky already this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Jayhawks have assisted on at least 22 made field goals in all four of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting 19 or more team assists in their last contest. They have held all four of their opponents to 35.1% or lower shooting from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding three straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding four straight opponents to 40% or lower shooting. Kansas has been impressive with Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson playing great for his new team — but depth is an issue for this team which will now be tested playing without a day of rest. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas lost to the same Fighting Illini team that Marquette beat by seven points — and while that was an exhibition game, head coach Bill Self did play his starters in that nationally televised game. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s — and the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.             

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has won two games in a row after their 121-99 win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (7-6) is on a three-game winning streak after their 121-109 upset win against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 12 games — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games after winning two games in a row. And in their last 35 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest, they have covered the point spread in 24 of those games. The Sixers return home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games at home when favored. Cleveland nailed 54.9% of their shots on Sunday in their upset victory against the Nuggets. They have shot at least 51.2% from the field in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after making at least 50% of their shots from the field in three straight games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Cleveland’s defense has taken a step back this season. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, they have dropped to 12th in the league this season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.5. The Cavs are not at 100% given some injuries — most notably Donovan Mitchell is out with a hamstring injury and Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Cleveland-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (6-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 142-113 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Orlando (8-5) has won three games in a row after their 128-116 upset victory at Indiana as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Magic have pulled off three straight upset victories after beating the Chicago Bulls in back-to-back games before their contest with the Pacers. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a road dog. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win. They come into this game undermanned with two starters out due to the injuries to Markelle Fultz and Wendall Carter, Jr. Those two absences will put even more pressure on their struggling offensive attack that ranks just 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.6. After completing a four-game road trip, Orlando returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory at home by 20 or more points. The Raptors match up well against the Magic with four forwards in their starting lineup — Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes who could all defend Orlando’s pair of 6’10 big men in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. First-year head coach Darko Rajakovic has his team playing even better defense than the group that ranked tied for tenth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. Toronto has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.3 this season after posting a 113.1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark last year. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams remain alive for this In-Season Tournament thing — so both teams should have motivation. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). THE SITUATION: New York (5-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-98 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (6-4) has won two of their last three games in their 126-120 victory at Detroit as a 4.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York probably played their worst game of the season on Monday. Their 41.8% shooting percentage was their lowest mark in their last four games, They also allowed the Celtics to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Knicks are still playing outstanding defense this season — they rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight — even without R.J. Barrett who will miss this game (too) as he deals with migraine headaches. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a division opponent. After a slow start to the season, Julius Randle is playing better by scoring 24.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game in his last four contests. Jalen Brunson is scoring 22.0 PPG this season while nailing 43% of his shots from behind the arc while adding 4.3 Assists-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games on the road. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots last night against the Pistons which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Trae Young did not play last night — but he is expected to take the court tonight. He is only making 35.7% of his shots so far this season — and he is making just 29.4% of his 3-pointers. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) tips off their season after losing to Houston by an 81-64 score in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament on March 18th. Baylor (0-0) lost in the Round of 32 the next day in an 85-76 loss to Creighton. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: This Baylor team projects to be very good — they begin the season ranked 9th in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But it will likely take some time for this team to develop chemistry. Head coach Scott Drew claims that he has “never had so many new players” on a squad. This will not be a problem when they play John Brown on Thursday (the school, not a guy) — but opening up against an Auburn team that Pomeroy ranks as the 16th-best team in the nation is a challenge. The Bears have an entirely new backcourt after Keonte George got drafted by the Utah Jazz and Adam Flagler got signed by Oklahoma City as an undrafted free agent. Baylor also lost L.J. Cryer who transferred to Houston. While those players were great scorers, they were liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Bears ranked 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their small backcourt was one of the problems. Drew is likely to get his team back to playing better defense — but he may have to sacrifice too much offensive production to do so. Much is being asked of RayJ Dennis who transferred from Toledo where he won the Mid-American Conference Player of the Year — but playing elite teams from Power Five conferences is a major step up in competition. Drew needs immediate offensive production from freshman Ja’Kobe Walter who is an uber-talented wing but will be asked to score right away. Interior defense was also an issue last season — the Bears ranked 348th in the nation in defending shots at the rim. Opponents made 53.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 315th in the country — and opponents pulled down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 293rd in the nation. Drew’s front-court rotation is roughly the same — so these issues likely remain a problem. Baylor’s style of play is described as a Gambling Giant: they shoot lots of 3s, they crash the offensive glass, they focus on perimeter defense — but they sacrifice defensive rebounding to accomplish these tasks. Everything is a tradeoff — and these teams tend to struggle against styles of play described as Slow Killers. Enter the Tigers coached by Bruce Pearl who has had great success with precisely this approach. Slow Killers want to lull a game to a crawl’s pace while they focus on offensive rebounding and defending against the 3-point shot. The Tigers ranked 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to making only 28.6% of their opponent’s shots. They also ranked 49th in the nation by pulling down 32.8% of their missed shots. John Broome and Dylan Cardwell both return from last year to give Pearl a two-headed monster at the center with one of them on the court at almost all times. Jaylin Williams is a 6’8, 230-lb fifth-year senior coming off his best season — and there is plenty of forward depth that should ensure that the frontcourt remains imposing once again this year. The key to this Auburn team will be the play of their backcourt which has struggled with shot selection the last two seasons. Wendell Green is gone to the NBA G-League. KD Johnson returns with Pearl hoping he is ready to make a jump in development. But it is Denver Jones and Aden Holloway who raise the ceiling of potential for this squad. Jones transfers in from Florida International where he scored more than 20 Points-Per-Game as a sophomore. Holloway is a five-star freshman regarded as one of the best shooters in the national class. If the backcourt is improved, then the Tigers should be even better this season.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, I like Pearl versus Drew in this opening contest for both teams. Baylor averaged 26 shots from behind the arc last season — and Auburn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games against teams who launch 21 or more 3-pointers per game. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and while that is not this Bears team yet, that is their projection. 10* CBB Auburn-Baylor ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-1) lost their first game of the season with a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (4-0) is unbeaten to start the season after their 114-105 win against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: If the financial incentives for this In-Season Tournament that begins tonight were not enough to motivate the defending champions, the Mavericks should have Denver’s full attention tonight after they played their worst game of the season on Wednesday after a Timberwolves team coming off an embarrassing loss themselves. The Nuggets only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. And while Minnesota made a modest 45.8% of their shots, that was still the highest shooting percentage that Denver has allowed all season. The Nuggets have been very focused early on this season — three of their four victories have been by eight or more points. They rank second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. The biggest concern for this team coming into this season was the play of their bench after losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson have played well as the core of their second unit. Denver should play great tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by double-digits. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after winning two of their last three games. Dallas allowed the Bulls to make 47.2% of their shots which was actually the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots including 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Defense was one of the biggest questions for this team after they ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kudos to this team for starting the season undefeated — and a slimmed-down Luka Doncic has been spectacular so far. Kyrie Irving has not yet played this season due to a left ankle sprain — and he is questionable to play tonight. I suspect Irving plays — but the Mavericks ranked 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring Irving at the trade deadline which is not a surprise since he is not known for his defensive prowess. The Doncic/Irving duo was not successful last year — Dallas was only 5-11 in their 16 games when they played together down the stretch as they dropped from the fourth seed in the Western Conference to the 11th seed. It will still be a work in progress for those two superstars to mesh together on the offensive end of the court. The Mavericks lost some important role players from last year as well with Christian Wood and Reggie Bullock leaving the team in free agency. Dallas is getting nice contributions from rookie center Derrick Lively, Jr. — but is he ready (and big enough) to slow down Nikola Jokic? Doncic and Irving are both liabilities on defense. Furthermore, Dallas has had an easy opening schedule with games against San Antonio, Brooklyn, the mess that is Memphis, and the Bulls. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning four or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are making 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc — but Denver has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams making 36% or more of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-114 upset loss at home to the Spurs as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. San Antonio (2-2) has won two of their last three games after that upset win on Halloween.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Suns had a 63-45 halftime lead against the Spurs before taking a 73-53 lead with less than nine minutes left to go in the third quarter. Then head coach Frank Vogel overcompensated with a defensive lineup that stopped their scoring and opened up the door for San Antonio to conduct their massive comeback. Phoenix was undermanned with Bradley Beal yet to make his season debut due to injury and Devin Booker missing his third straight game with a toe injury. Booker is a game-time decision tonight — so if he plays, it is a happy bonus for us. Even if he does not play, the Suns still have Kevin Durant who is scoring 27.7 Points-Per-Game so far this season. Phoenix should tighten things up on defense after allowing San Antonio to make 46.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three points or less. Phoenix has played two straight games Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after playing an Over in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home after playing two straight Overs. San Antonio has to be overjoyed with the play of rookie Victor Wembanyama who has played well with flashes of brilliance. He held his own with Durant on Tuesday. But the Spurs remain a team that is very young and inexperienced — they are probably a year away from being a serious playoff contender. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This is their third game on the road since Sunday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games when playing for the third time in five days. And while the Spurs started slow in their previous game by going into halftime trailing the Los Angeles Clippers by a 56-37 score, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Wembanyama is expected to be a defensive force with his 7’4 frame and his 8’ wingspan — but the Suns’ 50.6% shooting percentage on Tuesday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season for the Spurs. The play of San Antonio’s defense is very concerning after they ranked last in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51% along with their opponent’s three-point shooting percentage of 39% and their opponent’s 57% shooting clip inside the arc were all the worst marks in the league. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after allowing three straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Phoenix Suns (562) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). THE SITUATION: Orlando (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers as a 3-point underdog yesterday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 123-83 win against San Antonio as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC PLUS THE POINTS: Orlando was very competitive with the Lakers last night despite playing their worst game of the young season. They only made 40% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their first three games. And they allowed Los Angeles to shoot 53.2% from the field which was the worst defensive effort so far this season. This is a dangerous young team that overcame a brutal 5-20 start last year to go 29-28 the rest of the way. In those final 57 games, the team bought into playing defense for head coach Jamahl Mosley. They ranked sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over that stretch of games — and their attention to detail on that end of the court has continued this season as Orlando leads the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 99.7. Scoring was an issue for this team last year as they ranked 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but so far this season they rank a respectable 14th in the league with a 110.3 mark. The Magic have two rising stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero won the Rookie of the Year Award last year after being picked first in the 2022 draft. Wagner was outstanding in helping Germany win the Basketball World Cup over the summer — the third-year pro may be in line to win the Most Improved Player Award this year. With these two versatile 6’10 players, Orlando is a handful. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing on the road for the third time in five days. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. Los Angeles will be undermanned tonight after trading Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and KJ Martin, Jr. to Philadelphia last night. The Clippers brought back James Harden and P.J. Tucker but they will not be available to play tonight after packing their bags. Head coach Ty Lue is already dealing with some injuries with Terrance Mann and Brandon Boston both out for tonight. Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac are questionable with injuries as well. The Clippers come off their best defensive effort of the season by holding the Spurs to only 37.5% shooting on Sunday. Los Angeles seized a 56-37 lead by halftime in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking a 15 or more point lead at halftime in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are outscoring their opponents by +16.6 Points-Per-Game so far this season — but Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Orlando Magic (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 128-95 loss at home to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their 118-102 win against Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City played their worst game of the season yesterday — their 41.1% shooting percentage and their allowing the Nuggets to make 60.2% of their shots were both the worst marks of the young season. But the Thunder has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 30 or more points. Oklahoma City was a surprisingly good defensive team last season under head coach Mark Daigneault as he got a young roster to buy in as they ranked 12th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Finally having a healthy Chet Holmgren on the court after he missed all of last season is a big help as the seven-footer from Gonzaga offers the team the rim protector they need. With first-team All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have reliable scoring that makes yesterday’s game against the reigning NBA champions an aberration. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after failing to score more than 105 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. The Thunder are a legitimate contender to make the Western Conference playoffs after beating New Orleans in the Play-In Tournament before ultimately losing to Minnesota. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two of their last three games. Detroit is another team that should be improved after getting an injured star back with Cade Cunningham back on the court after only 12 games last year. We were on the Pistons in their lone loss this season at Miami. They then upset Charlotte on Friday before their upset victory at home against the Bulls on Saturday. They made 52.3% of their shots in that win against Chicago which was a season high. But this looks like a letdown spot for them tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win against a division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6  games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. The Pistons are missing Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers — and this team will be more reliable on the road when they have those veterans in the mix.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games at home when favored. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma City Thunder (512) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 124-104 upset loss at home against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (1-0) comes off a 97-94 win against Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago was sluggish with their shooting on Wednesday as they only made 41.9% of their shots. The Bulls can struggle with their shooting — but allowing the Thunder to make 54.9% of their shots was a surprise after they finished fifth in the NBA last season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games after a loss at home by ten or more points. The Bulls lost in the Play-In Tournament to Miami after finishing the regular season with a 40-42 record — but their net point differential projected them to have 44 victories which was more in line with their 46 wins for the 2021-22 season. The organization returned their top eight players in terms of minutes played. While they will not have the services of Lonzo Ball this season as he recovers from his chronic knee injuries, the team still has a very respectable trio in Zack LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic that forms the core of the team. Chicago has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games at home when favored by up to six points. Toronto only made 40% of their shots on Wednesday — but they benefited from the Timberwolves only making 34% of their shots. But the Raptors got out-rebounded by a 62-47 margin to Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. The Raptors entered a new era in the offseason after firing head coach Nick Nurse and then not resigning point guard Fred VanVleet — two key pieces in their recent NBA championship. Dennis Schroder was signed as a free agent from the Los Angeles Lakers to run the offense — but he is a downgrade from VanVleet. This is a team that ranked 26th in the league by assisting on only 57% of their made field goals — and VanVleet was their leading assist man. Toronto also ranked 28th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They were just 14-27 on the road last season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago beat the Raptors in the Play-In Tournament last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against Toronto. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-1) looks to rebound from their 119-107 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (1-0) tipped off their season with a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles caught on hot-shooting Nuggets team on the night they lowered their championship banner and received their rings. Denver shot 52.7% from the field while making 41% of their 3-pointers. Anthony Davis did not score a point in the second half. Now the Lakers return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with those two point spread losses being against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a point spread defeat. The Lakers' defense was much better after the trade deadline when they solved some roster problems — they ranked third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after the trade deadline while holding their opponents to just a 33.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking fourth in the NBA. They improved their roster in the offseason by adding Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes among others. Phoenix held the Warriors to just 35.6% shooting on Tuesday — and  Golden State only made 24% of their shots from behind the arc in that opening game. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win against a divisional rival. Despite the victory, there were some concerning elements to Phoenix’s effort under first-year head coach Frank Vogel. Despite trading away Chris Paul, the offense is still too dependent on jump shots inside the arc as 57% of their field goal attempts were from midrange. They also turned the ball over in 19% of their possessions which is likely to continue to be a problem given the lack of quality point guards on the roster. Devin Booker was the primary ball handler in that game — but now he joins Bradley Beal as being out for this game (because October is not too early for load management). The aging Eric Gordon and Jordan Goodwin will have the ball-handling duties tonight. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with Los Angeles Lakers (532) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). THE SITUATION: Golden State (0-0) returns to action after losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals last May. Phoenix (0-0) also lost in the Western Conference Semifinals in a six-game series against Denver last May.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State moved on from Jordan Poole in the offseason in their trade with Washington that brought back Chris Paul. The Warriors seemed to have chemistry issues all season after trying to sweep Poole’s preseason fight with Draymond Green under the rug. Green is out tonight with an injury. Golden State is not nearly as tough on defense without Green. However, head coach Steve Kerr has some interesting options with Paul now in the mix — either Steph Curry or Paul will be leading the offense at nearly all times with that combination. While we need to take preseason numbers with a grain of salt, Paul scored 7.5 Points-Per-Game in 20.2 Minutes-Per-Game while adding 5.8 Assists-Per-Game and 4.0 Rebounds-Per-Game.  Golden State was a much better team at home where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Phoenix has significantly remade their roster with Paul and DeAndre Ayton gone and Bradley Beal coming into the mix to form a super team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. But this trio will not be debuting together tonight with Beal out with an injury. Booker is not 100% either as he is dealing with a toe injury — but he is expected to take the court. Only Durant, Booker, and Josh Okogie return from the rotation they used last season — and they have a new head coach in Frank Vogel. The Suns have some questions that need to be answered. Will they suffer without a traditional point guard on the roster? Is the supporting cast good enough? I suspect this team will experience some cohesion and chemistry issues early on. Even last year, Durant and Booker could become too dependent and predictable on isolation plays on offense. In their 23 games together when playing on the road after Phoenix acquired Durant from Brooklyn, they only had an 11-12 straight-up record — and they were 10-12-1 ATS in those 23 road games together. Vogel’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher in his previous stints with the Lakers and Indiana Pacers.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 28 of their 41 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range under head coach Steve Kerr — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (504) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things are dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they should be a tough out. I think the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat are off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark has improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena last Sunday, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. Don’t be surprised if Miami breaks out of the shooting slump they experienced in Miami. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They have perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver has been great all season — but one of the flaws of this group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it will not help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.    

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games after their 109-94 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin. Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After stealing home court advantage in Game Two, Miami only made 37.0% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. After making 59% of their shots in the paint in Game Two, the Heat only made 38.2% of their shots inside eight feet of the basket in Game Three. They also made only 11 shots from behind the arc for a 31% shooting percentage from 3-point range after making 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from distance in Game Two. Now for the first time in these playoffs, the Heat are trailing in a playoff series. They should shoot better tonight as they are nailing 38.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Head coach Erik Spoelstra needs more from the supporting cast after the starting five only made 5 of 19 shots (26.3%) from behind the arc. Fifty of the team’s 94 points came from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Miami has allowed the Nuggets to make 50.2% or more of their shots in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games.  They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they outrebounded their opponent by 20 or more rebounds. Consistency has been a problem for the Nuggets who tend to take their foot off the proverbial accelerator such as the third quarter in Game Two. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a win on the road by 10 or more points. In their last 18 games on the road when favored, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver's head coach Michaal Malone was livid with his team after Game Two. He described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. He showed the team the game tape afterward with 17 clips demonstrating miscues that he thinks resulted in a 40-point swing in the game. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. If there is a silver lining from a loss, it is that it usually results in an attentive audience from the players before the next game. Don’t be surprised if the Nuggets play their best game of the series tonight. As it is, Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with two days of rest. Now the Nuggets go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the home court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing with two days of rest. The Heat return home for the first time since May 27th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after being on the road for seven or more days.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Denver-Miami ABC-TV Specials with the Denver Nuggets (517) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami went into halftime trailing by 17 points — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Denver played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding Miami to just 40.6% shooting from the field. But the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning seven games in a row. And in their last 11 games played when playing for just the second time in seven days, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Miami began to find some rhythm in the fourth quarter when they went on an 11-0 run. Head coach Erik Spoelstra played more zone in the fourth quarter while using Haywood Highsmith as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic. Highsmith scored 18 points in Game One — and the Nuggets only scored 18 points in the 19 possessions that the Heat was deploying a zone defense. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (515) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: It may take the Heat a game to get situated in this series after a long and grueling seven-game series with the Celtics that just ended earlier this week. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. Miami held the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. The Heat have not allowed more than 104 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Denver rallied from a 73-58 halftime score to beat the Lakers in the fourth game of that series — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their previous game. The Nuggets should benefit from the extended break they earned from the four-game sweep as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get the first two games at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, Denver has covered the point spread 13 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the last game being a 112-108 upset win by Denver on the road as a 1-point underdog on February 13th. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired on Saturday. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. Perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams have a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams is muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams are only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am not willing to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size is too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it is fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And finally on this issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since this is the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that has not then played on the road. Ultimately, I am taking the Heat plus the points because I lack the confidence that the Celtics can close — and their 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back is the latest example of this phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team just think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? Now the Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I am comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Fundamentally, I consider the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed since they are largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat rank second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark is much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also makes 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that still is higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. If the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. So, I think there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I have more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — supporting my argument that the power ratings have them undervalued. And in their last 40 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the underdog, Miami has covered the point spread in 26 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for triple revenge against an opponent that has beaten them three straight times. Butler missed 16 of his 21 shots from the field on Saturday — but I suspect this might be the time he steps up again. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) has won the last two games of this series after their 110-97 win at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat suddenly find themselves in severe trouble in this series despite once enjoying a 3-0 lead. Miami are underdogs despite playing at home — and if they lose this game, they will have to attempt to win this series on the road in Boston. Injuries have plagued this team all postseason with Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro’s absences threatening the depth of this team. The final blow may just have well been when Gabe Vincent twisted his ankle during Game Four. While he returned to play in that game, the subsequent swelling on Wednesday kept him out of Game Six. Vincent’s availability is proving critical — not only is he not a liability on the defensive end of the court (as opposed to some of the players still available to head coach Erik Spoelstra), but he is one of the team’s best ball handlers. Miami committed 16 turnovers without him on Thursday representing more than 20% of their possessions. He is questionable to play tonight — and even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after losing two of their last three games. Boston has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a win on their home court. The Celtics go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Miami against the Heat — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (501) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics played with professional pride on Tuesday after their embarrassing 26-point loss in Miami on Sunday. They made 51.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they nailed 18 of their 45 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was their best 3-point shooting mark in this series. But can Boston continue this effective shooting back at home? They were only making 28.3% of their 3-pointers in this series before Game Four. Frankly, this team simply seems too dependent on the 3-point shot — and teams that live and die by the 3 are usually inconsistent. And the fundamental problems with this team regarding their relationship with head coach Joe Mazzulla — the last-minute replacement for Ime Udoka who was suspended for his off-the-court shenanigans. Boston still looks broken despite the momentary display of life. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. Boston has also been unreliable when playing at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting upset in the first two games of this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 210s including six of those eight circumstances this season. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Fives in a series. Miami only made 8 of their 25 shots (25%) from behind the arc while settling for a 43.6% shooting percentage which was the worst offensive effort in this series. But the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Expect a more aggressive effort from Bam Adebayo who has only scored 11.5 Points-Per-Game on six shots per game after averaging 15 shots per game in the first two games in this series. On the road, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The books still have Boston as an 8-point home favorite which is the range they were in for Games One and Two. Frankly and in hindsight, that number seems flawed based on an overreliance on the Heat’s regular season numbers before they (somehow) flipped the switch and started making their 3s. Gabe Vincent’s rolled ankle late in Game Four worries me — he did come back and play on Tuesday but is listed as questionable for Game Five (UPDATE: Vincent is out tonight — but this is still a play. It’s a Jimmy Butler night). Ultimately, I think this Heat team has too much heart and team unity to get blown out again. Perhaps Boston extends this series to a sixth game, but this should be a close game if they do — and Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (545) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): In backing Boston on Sunday, I compared them to a drunken sailor who hates themselves enough to constantly dig themselves a deeper and deeper hole from which to then dig out. Turns out, this team may hate their head coach Joe Mazzulla even more than they hate themselves given their complete lack of effort in Game Four. The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on their rookie head coach Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has been favored in all three of their losses in this series — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after getting upset in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-18-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three games in a row. This team has still failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after a point spread win. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing the Heat in Miami. 8* NBA Boston-Miami TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (545) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (544) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series. Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS: The obvious move for Los Angeles tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ efforts on both ends of the court. As it is, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 46 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning five games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Game Fours in a playoff series. And in their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are probably not going to rally to reach the NBA Finals after falling into an 0-3 deficit in this series — but I do expect the professional pride of LeBron James and Anthony Davis to lead them to victory tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 8* NBA Denver-LA Lakers ESPN Special with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Like a drunken sailor who hates himself, Boston seems determined to keep digging deeper and deeper holes for themselves to then dig out of — but I suspect they know that an 0-3 hole will be all but insurmountable. They had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin to give that game away. Miami has a big edge with head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are the mentally tougher team. But the Celtics do have more ballers who can win any game in this series if they are all playing at their typical levels of competency. On Friday, it was Marcus Smart who disappointed the Boston faithful with just 7 points on 2-of-5 shooting with just four rebounds and three assists. Before that game, Smart had averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game on 15.2 field goal attempts per game, 5.7 Rebounds-Per-Game, and 7.5 Assists-Per-Game when Boston was trailing in a postseason game over the last two years. Smart should play better tonight — and so too should Jaylen Brown who scored only 16 points after missing 16 of his 23 shots. Jayson Tatum had his A-Game with 34 points — but he needs more help. The Celtics have staved off elimination on the road in the playoffs last season and also this year — so they are up to the challenge. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after getting upset in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when both those upsets were at home. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss at home. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Boston has some clunkers at home in these playoffs — but they have won and covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Frankly, I was disgusted by Miami’s effort in their opening Play-In Tournament game when we were on them against Atlanta. Fortunately, we have avoided fading them for most of their seven upset wins in this postseason. Mindlessly zig-zagging in the NBA playoffs is a dangerous betting strategy — especially since Joe Public knows about it. But mindlessly fading the zig-saggers is not an approach either. Off two upset wins already in this series, it may be difficult for the Heat to maintain their highest intensity — that is simply human nature. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three games in a row. They have won all five of their games at home in the postseason — but they were 6-0 at home in the playoffs last year before losing three games in a row at home to these same Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Miami including those three playoff games last year. They have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 108-103 loss as a 5.5-point underdog on the road on Thursday. Denver (63-32) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. The Lakers should play their best game of this series tonight with their backs against the wall. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss including five straight games in this postseason. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well. But now Los Angeles returns home where they have won and covered the point spread in all six of their games this postseason. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Back on their home court in these playoffs, Los Angeles is scoring +3.8 more points per 100 possessions off turnovers — and they are allowing -1.7 fewer points per 100 points off turnovers. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver outrebounded Los Angeles by a 49-40 margin making it the fourth straight game where they outrebounded their opponent by at least eight boards. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by at least five boards. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning four games in a row. The Nuggets have yet to find a suitable answer to Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham’s fourth-quarter adjustment in Game One where he inserted Rui Hachimura in the game to defend Nikola Jokic. Not only is Hachimura a good defender but that move freed up Davis to devote his defensive energy to protecting the rim. Jokic has gone just 9 of 23 from the floor in the last five quarters of this series since Ham made that adjustment. The Nuggets pulled out Game Two because Jamal Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter of that game by scoring 23 points on 6 of 7 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc. Murray had missed 12 of his previous 17 shots in that game. But now Denver goes back on the road where they have lost three of their five games this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a same-season loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-31) looks to bounce back from a 123-116 upset loss at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (54-42) has won eight of their last ten games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has been ridiculed for claiming afterward that his team won three of the four quarters on Wednesday. It was a disastrous third quarter in which the Heat outscored the Celtics by a 46-25 margin that made the difference. But Mazzulla’s point was that his team “let go of the rope” and let up in their intensity and focus on the defensive end of the court. Boston was not as physical as they needed to be and let Miami run wild in transition. The Heat nailed six of their nine shots from behind the arc in the third quarter while pulling down four of their nine missed shots. The Heat was a sizzling 17 of 26 from the field in that decisive start to the second half. But there are good signs for Boston from that game — if they simply tighten things up on defense and play a full 48 minutes tonight. The Celtics posted a 58% effective field goal percentage with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120.8. They outscored Miami by a 62-40 point margin in the paint. But there is still room for improvement since Boston only made 34.5% of their 3-point attempts while only launching 29 shots from behind the arc. They should take more 3s tonight given their average of 42 shots from 3-point range per game this season — and they are making 39.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Mazzulla will probably not play Robert Williams III as much since he struggled in defending the Heat’s perimeter players — the Celtics had a 145 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court in Game One.  Miami made 54.1% of their shots which was the Celtics’ worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Boston should bounce back tonight as they tend to play better when their backs are against the wall. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games after a loss in the last two postseasons including after four of their five playoff losses this year. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 second games in a playoff series, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Miami enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last 11 games with their 54.1% shooting — and they made 16 of their 31 shots (52%) from behind the arc including 57% of their non-corner 3s. The Heat are due a visit from the Regression Gods after posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 65.1% despite an expected eFG of 50.8%. Miami’s eFG in this postseason is 54.4%. Miami has won the opening game in all three of their playoff series this year — but they followed that up with a 138-122 loss at Milwaukee and then a 111-105 loss at New York in the second games of both those series. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. And in their last 26 games after winning two games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread 18 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston laid an egg in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami last season — but they bounced back by blowing out the Heat by a 127-102 score despite being on the road. Home teams in Game Twos coming off a loss in Game One have won 16 straight times in the NBA playoffs — and the seven Game Two winners have an average margin of victory of +17.7 points with six of those winners all being by double-digits. 25* NBA Friday TNT Game of the Year is with the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami will have the benefit of an extra two days of rest and preparation from head coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff. Don’t underestimate what Spoelstra has cooked up for this opening contest against a Celtics team that he knows very well. As it is, the Heat have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 56 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 trips to Boston to play the Celtics. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And the Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston stepped up their level of play after losing Game Five at home against the Sixers to fall one game away from elimination. But this Celtics team has struggled with being consistent and maintaining their focus — so this looks like a likely letdown spot after their emotional win by 24 points where Jayson Tatum exorcised from demons from disappointing play earlier in that series. Boston was favored in Game Six and Seven against Philly and covered the point spread in both games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. The Celtics’ stymied the 76ers' offense by holding them to 86 and 88 points in those final two games. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing no more than 100 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 95 points in two straight games. They made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games at home with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series.

FINAL TAKE: This is the third time these two teams have played each other in the postseason since 2020. Miami and Boston split their four games in the regular season with the Heat winning the final two games after a 98-95 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on January 24th. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games at home when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with the Miami Heat (533) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-32) has won five of their last seven games after beating Phoenix in six games last round culminating in a 125-100 upset victory at Phoenix as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-43) won three of their last four contests to beat Golden State by a 122-101 score as a 3-point favorite in Game Six of that series on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has the advantage of being able to host these first two games where they have a 40-7 straight-up record — and they are 30-16-1 ATS in these 47 home games this season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has won all six of their home games this postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 home playoff games. The Nuggets should build off the momentum of their victory against the Suns as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after getting three or more days of rest, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Here comes LeBron James who has lost 14 of his previous 19 opening games of a playoff series on the road (although the Lakers did upset Golden State last round in the Warriors’ building by a 117-112 score as a 4.5-point underdog). Los Angeles enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last six games by holding Golden State to 37.9% shooting. And by making 52.0% of their shots in that Game Six, the Lakers had their best shooting effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. The Lakers have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has only won two of their six games on the road in this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 6 playoff road games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the home team winning all four games. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (532) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with a 95-86 victory on the road as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 playoff games in potential closeout situations. Boston has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing a game where not more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games in closeout situations — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when facing elimination. Furthermore, Boston is a decisive 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Focus has been a concern for this Boston team this season — but when the Celtics are bringing their A-Game, they tend to know how to beat Embiid and this Sixers team. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against Boston. 8* NBA Philadelphia-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-43) had their two-game winning streak in this series snapped in a 121-106 loss on the road as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (50-44) still faces elimination trailing in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. They still lead all teams this postseason in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point speed in 6 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Golden State nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. If Wiggins plays, his offensive efforts will probably be limited. As it is, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win. The Warriors have not been a good road team this season — they are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Lakers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against them at Crypto.com Arena.  

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 opportunities at same-season revenge. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (60-32) has won four of their last six games after their 118-102 victory at home against the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (51-41) returns home having lost three of their last five games and looking to stave off elimination trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The margin for error for the Suns in this series is thin. They live on midrange shooting from Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul — but CP3 remains out for this game and they have to make a significant amount of those 2-point shots to make up for Denver’s 3-point shooting. In their two games at home in this series, Booker enjoyed two historic efforts as he combined to make 34 of his 43 shots (79%) for 83 combined points. Landry Shamet stepped up with 17 points in Game Four. The Phoenix bench outscored the Nuggets’ bench by a 62-31 margin. Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for only 11 Points-Per-Game in those two games. Denver combined to make only 16 of their 50 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. But with all that, the Suns only won those two games by a combined 12 points. Can Booker be Superman again — especially with now an injured foot that will likely slow him down? Deandre Ayton is questionable with a rib injury — and if you are buying the narrative that the team will Phoenix is better off without him for Jock Landale given the plus/minus numbers in this series, I have some beachfront property here in Las Vegas that you might be interested in. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games at home after a game that finished Under the Total. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The most consistent dynamic of this series has been Nikola Jokic who has been unstoppable in this series for the Nuggets. Jokic is making 58% of his shots and 47% of his shots from behind the arc. Denver has outscored the Suns by +46 in this series when the Joker is on the court. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Phoenix. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (555) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston only shot 32.8% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers which was a far cry from their 38.0% shooting from behind the arc in Games One through Four. The Celtics also allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Game Five was just a clunker for a Boston team that played in the NBA Finals last year and probably took too much for granted in a Game Five back at home. Now they have their backs against the wall in this potential elimination game. But let’s remember that the Celtics posted a dominant 123.7 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the first four games of this series — +11.5 points higher than Philly. They averaged 44.0 Points-Per-Game in the paint in the first four games of this series. And the Boston bench outscored the 76ers’ bench by a 124-84 point margin before Game Five when Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III combined for only 11 points. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 60 points — but they did not play well on the other end of the court. Look for those superstars to play with more energy on defense. As it is, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss as a favorite of six or more points against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has been effective on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they hold a dominant 37-17-1 ATS mark in their last 55 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. And by holding the Celtics to 39.8% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last seven contests. But consistency has been an issue for this team. James Harden has enjoyed two huge 40-point scoring efforts — but he only made 17.9% of his shots and 15.4% of his 3-pointers in Game Two and Three. Tyrese Maxey had 30 points on Tuesday — but he did not score more than 14 points in Games Two and Three while making only 34% of his shots. Joel Embiid has been steady as a rock through all this — but he is playing through that right knee sprain. The Sixers are a team that is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Philadelphia has a long legacy of playoff disappointments late in the series — so the anxiety will be high in their building tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (553) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-44) has lost four of their last six games after their 104-101 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (51-42) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State looks to stave off elimination tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after failing to score more than 105 points. And in their last 17 home games after dropping two of their last three games, Golden State has covered the point spread in 13 of those contests. Returning home should make a big difference for this team as the role players perform better in the friendly confines of the Chase Center. The Warriors are 41-19-1 ATS in their last 61 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles was in a similar situation last round against Memphis as they held a 3-1 series lead with a road game for Game Five. They took their foot off the accelerator midway through that game when they fell behind to conserve their energy for Game Six. With LeBron James getting up there in years and Anthony Davis dealing with some inconsistencies, don’t be surprised if the Lakers look ahead to playing Game Six back at home. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning their two previous games at home. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with double revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (552) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-39) has lost the last two games in this series after a 109-101 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. Julius Randle called out his team after Monday’s loss that the Heat seem to have more ambition in this series. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks play their best game of the series tonight in front of their rabid home fans at Madison Square Garden. New York seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have not scored more than 101 points in two straight games — and three of their last four contests. But they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 105 points in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four games. The Knicks have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Miami did close out their series with Milwaukee last round on the road with a 3-1 lead — but the urgency against the Bucks team was much higher than it is now with the Heat seemingly in command. Don’t be surprised if the Heat play their worst game in the postseason since their flat effort at home against Atlanta in the first play-in game. It is not as if Miami is torching the nets — they are only scoring 106.8 PPG in this series. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning two games in a row at home. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 105 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 8 games. Jimmy Butler is still nursing an injured ankle — and while he has been effective, he has not scored 30 or more points in this series since putting on his Superman cape against the Bucks. He may save his energies for Game Six back at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (550) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series after their 129-124 loss on the road as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (51-40) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Devin Booker scored 36 points on 14 of 18 shooting on Sunday. He is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc in this series. But the Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns have failed to cover the point spew main 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They now go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Denver head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. While the Nuggets rank 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with same-season revenge. 20* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (548) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this should be a close game. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. New York did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread only once in their last four games. They go back on the road where they are 38-17-1 ATS — and they are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning record at home. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, while the Heat have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. And in their last 58 games when the favorite, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of those games.   

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with New York Knicks (541) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (539) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (540) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) was on a three-game winning streak before their 121-114 loss on the road to the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (50-40) won their first game in this series while earning their fifth victory in their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Game Three was a must-win contest for the Suns trailing 0-2 in this series. Depth is a problem for this team after they dealt Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade — and the injury to Chris Paul leaves the acceptable rotation for head coach Monty Williams rather thin. Getting Game Three on four days after Game Two was a big break for Durant and Devin Booker who have been playing m more than 40 minutes per game in the postseason. They both had monster games on Friday. Booker scored 47 points. Durant added 39 points. But Booker played 41:37 minutes and Durant was on the floor for 43:31 minutes. Now this duo only has a day of rest — and Paul remains out with his groin injury. The problem Phoenix has is that they lack a Plan B if Booker and Durant are not on fire. Their supporting cast made only 16 of 39 shots (41%) from the field and nailed only 3 of 15 (20%) shots from behind the arc. Furthermore, the heart of Booker and Durant (and Paul’s, for that matter) offense is from the midrange. I tend to think that the “math problem” for teams that do not launch more than 40% of their shots from 3-point range is often too simplistic (the math changes if a team’s shooting inside the arc is over 50% and generates trips to the free throw line). However, the cracks in the Suns’ philosophy are demonstrated in Booker’s stat line as he made 20 of his 25 shots (80%) from the field but only got to the free-throw line twice.  Phoenix won by only seven points despite his 80% shooting night. The Suns are taking more 3s after their Game One loss — but they only made 9 of their 28 shots (32%) from downtown as this simply is not a strength of this team. Phoenix held the Nuggets to 44.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. They will need to come close to that performance again despite ranking 11th of the 16 playoff teams in the first round in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (with a healthy Paul). That Los Angeles Clippers team without Paul George for the entire series and Kawhi Leonard for the final four games of that series still posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark of 120 or higher in three of those four contests. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Phoenix is now 13-3 straight-up with Durant on the floor — but the quality of the competition in those games has to be questioned. Eleven of those wins came against teams in the bottom half of the league in the regular season. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver found themselves behind the eight-ball early on Friday as they went into halftime trailing by a 67-52 score. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when trailing by 15 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Denver only made 10 of their 30 shots (33%) from behind the arc — and their 44.3% shooting percentage was the lowest in this series. Against Minnesota in the first round, the Nuggets made 58% of their shots inside the arc while nailing 38% of their 3-pointers. Denver has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Suns — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Conference Semifinals Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (539) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (536) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (535) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-42) had won two games in a row before their 127-100 loss on the road to the Warriors as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (49-42) has won two of their last three games to even this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles allowed the Warriors to make 50.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Lakers had the best defense in the NBA in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the trade deadline when they significantly improved their roster — so they should bounce back and play better on that end of the court back at home tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles was not as aggressive in Game Two as they were in Game One which they won by a 117-112 score. The Lakers are not nearly as efficient from 3-point range as the Warriors — but they overcome that gap by getting second-chance shots and getting to the free-throw line. In Game One, Los Angeles out-rebounded Golden State by a 53-49 margin while pulling down 13 offensive rebounds. They also made 25 of their 29 free throw attempts. But in Game Two, they only had nine offensive rebounds and got outrebounded by the smaller Warriors team by a 55-40 margin. Furthermore, they only had 17 free throw attempts and missed seven of those shots. The Lakers must control the boards in this series to stay competitive — and it starts with Anthony Davis. The big man scored only 11 points from 11 shots from the field — and he had just seven rebounds. Los Angeles was outscored by 22 points when he was on the court. The inconsistent superstar must play better tonight. Look for him and his teammates to play with more energy tonight after stealing home-court advantage in Game One. The Lakers return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Golden State made 50.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. They also nailed 50% of their 42 shots from behind the arc. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where their 3-point shooting drops to a 37.3% mark this season. Golden State was miserable on the road this season — but some of that should be blamed on defending champion malaise along with head coach Steve Kerr experimenting with giving his younger players more playing time in those games in a hostile environment. Still, it is not encouraging that the Warriors had the worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road for any reigning NBA champion in the history of the league. Golden State is 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Warriors have a 34-25 ATS mark on the road in the playoffs after Game Two in the Stephen Curry era — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 Game Threes when the playoff series was tied at 1-1. Kerr also has some lineup issues to resolve regarding whether or not to go small with just one center or play Draymond Green and Kevon Looney together. This is a tactical problem for him that was temporarily resolved with Looney being under the weather on Thursday. Kerr opted to start JaMychal Green who has size but can make 3s. But he is not the rebounder that Looney is. Kerr needs Looney’s rebounding — but both Green and he are offensive liabilities when on the court together. When Kerr went small late in the fourth quarter in Game One, they overcame a 14-point deficit. But maintaining the small lineup risks the Warriors getting crushed on the boards. By making 50% of their 3-pointers, Golden State gained +33 points on the Lakers in Game Two — the winning difference. Like every other basketball team on the planet, if they make 50% of their 3-pointers, they will continue to win. I do not expect that to happen tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games in the playoffs when the series is tied. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (536) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (535). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (533) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (534) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (55-37) has won four of their last five games after their 111-105 win at home against the Heat as a closing 9-point favorite on Tuesday that evened this series at 1-1. Miami (50-41) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York got Julius Randle back on the court in Game Two — and his presence jumpstarted their offense with the team posting a massive Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 135.2 when he was on the court. Randle scored 25 points while grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out eight assists. With Randle back in the middle, the Knicks out-rebounded the Heat by a 50-34 margin — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after out-rebounding their previous opponent by 15 or more boards. New York should build off their momentum from that win as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The extra days of rest should help them as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They go on the road where they are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road after playing their previous two games at home. Miami hopes to get Jimmy Butler back on the court after he missed Game Two due to the ankle he tweaked in Game One. He may not be back at 100%. The Heat have now covered the point spread in five straight games after pulling off four straight upsets in these playoffs before their Game Two loss. But Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They are also 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games after a point-spread win. They return home for the first time since April 24th where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 36 home games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for seven or more days.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA New York-Miami ABC-TV Special with the New York Knicks (533) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (49-40) has dropped the first two games of this series after their 97-87 loss on the road to the Nuggets as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Denver (59-30) has won seven of their last eight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix only made 40% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last 50 games. Even without the injured Chris Paul for this game after he injured his groin in Monday’s game, the Suns should shoot much better tonight. Cameron Payne has been effective in the starting five when Paul has been injured in the regular season. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after playing a game on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. Denver played their best defensive game in their last six contests by holding the Suns to 40.0% shooting. The Nuggets won Game One of this series by 18 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 24 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (530) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (529) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (59-29) had won seven games in a row before their 121-87 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 9-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-28) has won eight of their last 11 games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia got Joel Embiid back on Wednesday after he missed time with a right ankle sprain — but he was rusty and struggled to find his rhythm. The big man only scored 15 points and pulled down three rebounds in 27 minutes of work. He should be more in synch tonight. The 76ers only shot 39.2% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after scoring 105 or fewer points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games at home as an underdog, the Sixers have covered the point spread 4 times. This remains a team that is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston played their best defensive game in their last six contests by holding Philly to 39.2% shooting. They nailed 20 of their 51 shots (39%) from behind the arc while enjoying a +42 net point edge against the 76ers from 3-point land. That is not likely to continue tonight. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 30 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (530) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (526) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (525) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (48-42) looks to rebound from their 117-112 upset loss at home to the Lakers as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (49-41) has won four of their last five games while taking the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was at a situational disadvantage on Tuesday having just played a Game Seven on the road at Sacramento on Sunday while the Lakers had five days off after finishing Sacramento in six games. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss at home to a Pacific Division foe. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games after a point spread loss. And in their last 16 games at home after losing two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of these games. They remain a dominant 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles may take their foot off the gas pedal after stealing home-court advantage. LeBron James logged in 40 minutes in Game One while Anthony Davis played 44 minutes while not taking a break in the second half. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games off a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win as a road underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors went on a 14-0 run late in the fourth quarter by going small with Jordan Poole replacing Kevon Looney with the other four starters. Poole played his best game in the postseason by scoring 40 points. Expect head coach Steve Kerr to play more small ball with either Looney or Draymond Green the lone big man on the court since that opens up space for the offense to gel. Golden State has now lost four games in a row to the Lakers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when motivated by double-revenge. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Golden State ESPN Special with the Golden State Warriors (526) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (61-28) has lost two of their last three games after their 119-115 upset loss at home to the 76ers as a 10.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (59-28) has won seven games in a row while taking the opening game of this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made 58.7% of their shots in the loss as they continue to torch the nets in this postseason. They have an effective field goal percentage of 60.6% while nailing 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival when favored by at least six points. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Look for Robert Williams III to get more time on the court tonight. In his 20 minutes of work on Monday, he enjoyed a +25.2 net rating with the team posting a 105.4 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing at home. Philadelphia made 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The 76ers got a superhuman performance from James Harden who scored 45 points to carry the team to victory. It looks like Joel Embiid will return to the court tonight after being out with his right ankle sprain. This remains a luxury game for the team after they seized home-court advantage with the upset win on Monday. This is the Sixers’ fourth game in a row on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three games in a row on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning seven or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least five games in a row. Philly did commit ten more personal fouls than the Celtics in Game One after closing out their series with Brooklyn by committing five more personal fouls in Game Four. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after committing five or more personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the 76ers. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (517) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (51-37) was on a three-game winning streak before their 108-101 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (50-40) has won four straight games and six of their last seven while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: While New York made 47.7% of their shots on Sunday which was their best shooting effort in their last six games, that statistic is misleading for just how woeful the Knicks were with their shooting. They shot 20.6% from behind the arc by missing 27 of their 34 shots from downtown. They also made only 12 of their 20 free throws at a rough 60% clip. The deeper metrics suggest they deserved better with their 51.7% effective field goal percentage (eFG) far below their expected eFG of 54.7%. The Knicks are dealing with injuries with both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson listed as questionable with ankle issues. Randle has been out since late in the previous round against Cleveland. Brunson still played 40 minutes on that bum ankle — so he should play and should improve on his 0 for 7 mark from behind the arc in Game One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they have played six straight games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. The Knicks are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home. Miami has now pulled off four straight upset victories after stunning Milwaukee three times in a row last round — so they may be due for a letdown. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a straight-up win — and they are 10-28-1 ATS in their last 39 games after a point spread victory. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six of their last seven games. Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with the ankle injury he suffered late in Game One. While he played through it at the time, it is the swelling afterward that becomes the issue. He is considered a game-time decision — but it is tough to expect him to give it a go and risk making things worse with the Heat already seizing home-court advantage in this series. Game Three is on Saturday — so it would seem the prudent choice would be to just let Butler rest up.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 opportunities for same-season revenge. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (516) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (515) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (61-27) has won seven of their last nine games after their 128-120 win in Atlanta against the Hawks as a 6.5-point favorite to finish that series in six games last Thursday. Philadelphia (58-28) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against the Nets with a 96-88 win at Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite back on April 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston shot 50.0% from the field on Thursday — but that was the worst shooting effort from them in their last three games. The Celtics are making 51.9% of their shots in their last five games — and now they return home to TD Garden where they are making 48.5% of their shots which is generating 120.2 Points-Per-Game. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Celtics are also 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Philadelphia will most likely be without James Embiid tonight as he continues to nurse a sprained right knee. He missed Game Four against the Nets — and the Sixers only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 76 games. The 76ers have covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in four straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 13 games in Eastern Conference Semifinals, the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Celtics — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against them when playing in Boston. 8* NBA Philadelphia-Boston TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (516) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINT(S): Golden State only made 37.2% of their shots which was a season-low for them all season. But they are the ones with the playoff experience in this series — and by going up 3-1 in this series, they earned the luxury of being able to play awful but still live to see another day. Look for the Warriors to play a very good game in this Game Seven after that embarrassing effort. As it is, Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Sacramento played their best game in their last 12 contests by holding the Warriors to 37.2% shooting. But it is safe to assume that defense has not suddenly become the Kings' forte — they allow their guests to nail 50.4% of their shots when playing at home which results in 119.9 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a 6-point or higher underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday. Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York is rolling — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a win by 10 or more points. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point-spread victory. And in their last 4 games when playing with three or more days of rest, the Knicks have covered the point spread all 4 times. They get to host the first two games in this series where they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home at Madison Square Garden. New York has both Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes questionable for this game — but head coach Tom Thibodeau is hopeful that both players can take the court after the few days off. Randle has gone through individual workouts this week while Grimes told reporters that he plans to play. The Knicks were outstanding on defense against the Cavaliers and squeezed the will out of them in the first round. They held Cleveland to just 44.9% shooting which resulted in a mere 94.2 Points-Per-Game. They also dominated the offensive glass — they pulled down at least 40% of their missed shots in three of the five games. Miami may be due to a letdown after pulling off three upset wins in a row against a reeling Bucks team. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss victory on the road. They are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win on the road. They are 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams while posting a 60.9% effective field goal percentage against them and pulling down a healthy 28.3% of their missed shots. The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games. Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver closed out their series against the Timberwolves despite only making 40.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games — and tied for the worst offensive effort in their last 38 contests. They should shoot better tonight with the benefit of the few days off. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get to host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. And in their last 21 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total, they have failed to cover the point spread 16 times. Defense is a significant concern for this team after they allowed a Clippers team playing without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 120.0 or better in three of their four games last round. While Los Angeles ranked only 20th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the regular season, they ranked fifth of all 16 playoff teams with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.6 despite the injuries to Leonard and George. Now this team is going to encounter a culture shock with the uber-efficient Nuggets offense led by Nikola Jokic operating out of the post. And while the Suns have won 12 of their 13 games with Kevin Durant healthy and on the court since acquiring him, 11 of those games were against teams in the bottom half of the league. The lone loss was against a Clippers team playing their only playoff game with a healthy Leonard. Durant and Devin Booker averaged more than 40 minutes per game in Round One — and now they go on the road to the altitude in Denver. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Tellingly, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 6th with the Suns beating the Nuggets’ reserves by a 119-115 score. Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 opponents for some same-season revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-41) looks to close out this series tonight after their 116-99 loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (55-34) had lost four of five games before making this a 3-2 series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 40.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. And while they held Memphis to 44.4% shooting, that was still the worst defensive performance in their last four contests. After taking a 3-1 series lead, the Lakers bought themselves the luxury to take a game off — and they took their foot off the gas pedal when the Grizzlies started to pull away in the third quarter. But now is the game where LeBron James and Anthony Davis will step it up to avoid a Game Seven back in Memphis. As it is, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by double-digits. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games again teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Memphis played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Lakers to 40.2% shooting. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points, they are just 1-5-1 ATS. Memphis has not been a good team on the road. They are getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game away from home which is bottom-ten in the league. They have lost 24 games on the road as an underdog with their last upset win away from home being on January 22nd. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Considering that the Grizzlies are still relatively inexperienced in the playoffs, look for these woes on the road to continue. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. Boston only made 12 of their 38 (32%) shots from behind the arc in that game. The Celtics should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Atlanta nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc — so they may be due for some regression there. They make 35.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing at home. The inconsistent Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 64 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta gets Game Six at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games after their 126-125 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINT(S): De’Aaron Fox will attempt to play tonight after fracturing his left index finger. It would be foolish to expect his offensive game to remain at the high level that it has been so far in this series. But Sacramento has been a better team when playing at home — look for the role players to step up tonight. For example, Malik Monk has scored 25 Points-Per-Game for the Kings in the two games played in Sacramento in this series — as opposed to the 10 PPG he is scoring in the two games on the road. The Kings have gotten to the free throw line 61 times in their two home games in this series which is 20 more free throw attempts than what they have had in the two games in Golden State. Sacramento has also forced 35 turnovers in the two games at home as compared to their 22 forced turnovers in the two games on the road. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Sacramento has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games after a point spread win. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. The Warriors have lost 33 of their 43 games on the road this season. It is easy to blame the younger players for this lack of success away from home. While Jordan Poole has scored 19.5 PPG at home in this series, that productivity drops to 10.5 PPG in the two games on the road. But Stephen Curry has turned the ball over five times in both games in Sacramento in this series but only turned the ball over once in each of the two games at home. The Warriors rank third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they rank third to last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road — and they are 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE:  Sacramento has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-30) was on a four-game losing streak before their 114-108 loss on the road to the Timberwolves as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Minnesota (44-44) had lost four of their last five games before pulling the upset and making this a 3-1 series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver lacked focus in Game Four with the series seemingly in hand. They tried to flip the switch late in the game by going on a 13-0 run to force overtime — but they could not beat the Timberwolves desperate to get a win on their home court. Back on their home court, the Nuggets should take care of business and end this series tonight. As it is, they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered 15 of their last 22 games after losing on the road in their last game. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They only made 44.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They return home to the Pepsi Center where they make 51.3% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Nuggets have won all three of their games in this series by at least nine points — so laying the wood tonight should not be a problem. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Anthony Edwards is carrying the T-Wolves right now having scored at least 36 points in three straight games while averaging 37 Points-Per-Game on 50% shooting over that span. But it is probably too much to ask that he continues to produce at that level — especially on the road. Karl-Anthony Towns is not helping out with his scoring average down to 16.3 PPG in this series after averaging 20.8 PPG in the regular season. Minnesota will be without Kyle Anderson tonight due to an eye injury — and this team was already undermanned due to the injuries to Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating a division rival in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset win at home. Minnesota goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-26) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 130-122 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (43-43) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston allowed the Hawks to nail 56.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 47 games. The Celtics should tighten things up tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Atlanta enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 23 games by nailing 56.0% of their shots. But the Hawks have then failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Hawks. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-35) has lost four of their last six games after a 114-97 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Golden State (45-40) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin after winning for the fourth time in their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento only made 38.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. Despite making 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc for the year, they only converted 11 of their 47 shots (23%) from 3-point range on Thursday. They should make more of their 3s this afternoon. As it is, the Kings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Sacramento has been a consistent team playing away from home after posting a 25-17 record on the road in the regular season. The fast pace the Kings play under head coach Mike Brown has helped them maintain their effectiveness in hostile environments. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Kings have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Golden State stepped up with Draymond Green suspended and Gary Payton II out with an illness by playing their best defensive game in their last 22 contests by holding the Kings to 38.0% shooting. But scoring remains an issue for the Warriors after they only made 40% of their shots while missing 34 of their 50 shots from behind the arc. Golden State is making only 32.8% of their 3-pointers in this series which is a problem when facing this Sacramento team that broke an NBA record in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With Green out, head coach Steve Kerr played Kevon Looney for heavy minutes with four perimeter players to spread out the offense and open up space in the lane. The dilemma Kerr now has is how to divide Green and Looney’s minutes in Game Four. Playing both of these players together is a problem since both are liabilities on the offensive end of the court. When both players are on the court in this series, the Warriors are scoring only 105.4 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Warriors have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA Pacific Division Underdog of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-40) were on a four-game winning streak before their 103-93 loss on the road to the Grizzlies as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (52-32) snapped a two-game losing streak by evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 41.2% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. While LeBron James and Rui Hachimura combined to score 48 points, the rest of the team only made 16 of their 50 shots. They also only made 56.2% of their shots at the rim. The Lakers should play better back at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when trailing in a playoff series. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ja Morant remains a game-time decision after taking part in the Grizzlies’ non-contact practice on Friday after missing Game Two with an injured hand. Memphis is still effective when they do not have Morant available since Tyrus Jones is so effective running the offense in his absence — so this good situation is not dependent on Morant not playing tonight. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after their 122-113 loss on the road against the Nuggets as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Denver may suffer a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The T-Wolves have not covered the point spread in either game in this series — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing three of their last four games. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when listed as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-39) was on a four-game winning streak before dropping Game Two of this series on the road to the Suns by a 123-109 score as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (46-38) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory to even this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after he was declared out with a right knee sprain. The line has adjusted with the Clippers now a  home underdog in the 7-point range. Even without Leonard and Paul George, the depth on this Los Angeles roster and the energy they should bring to this game should help them keep it close (or pull the upset). They allowed the Suns to make 58.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive game of their season. They also only made 43.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Returning home the series is tied at 1-1, the Clippers should play better tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit setback. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Clippers have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 76 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. And while Game Two finished Over the 227.5-point total, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They played their best defensive game in their last five by holding the Clippers to 43.7% shooting — and their 58.8% field goal percentage was their best offensive performance all season. But what head coach Monty Williams is asking his team to do is contradict all the current conventional wisdom regarding how to win games in the NBA. Since acquiring Kevin Durant, Phoenix leads the league in shot attempts from midrange. Durant joined a team with Devin Booker and Chris Paul who thrived in taking and making midrange shots. The Suns have taken this to the extreme so far in this series as they averaging only 21.5 attempts from behind the arc. For comparison sakes, Atlanta was last in the NBA in the regular season by averaging 28.9 shots from 3-point land per game. Phoenix is also only taking 17% of their shots at the rim — below the Golden State’s 17.7% shooting percentage at the rim in the regular season which was the league-low. Granted, if the Suns make 40 of their 61 shots (66%) inside the arc again as they did on Tuesday, they will overwhelm the “math problem” of not taking more shots that count for three points or high-percentage shots at the rim. But will Torrey Craig continue his 7 of 12 (58.3%) shooting from 3-point range in this series now playing on the road? As it is, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Clippers head coach Ty Lue is one of the best in the business — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-25) has now lost three games in a row after their 130-117 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (46-39) has won two in a row and six of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Giannis Antetokounmpo only played 11 minutes on Sunday before injuring his back which leaves him questionable to play tonight. I am assuming that Antetokounmpo is not playing — and even better if he does take the court. Everything went right for the Heat on Sunday as they made 15 of their 25 shots from behind the arc — and Miami’s 59.5% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Bucks all season. Milwaukee should tighten things up on defense tonight while also shooting better than the 26% from behind the arc that they managed in Game One. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. And while Milwaukee has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bucks have one of the deepest rosters in the league with plenty of players that can step up in the Greek Freak’s absence. Look for Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, in particular, tonight. Holiday is scoring 22.6 Points-Per-Game with 9.5 Assists-Per-Game and 6.4 Rebounds-Per-Game when Antetokounmpo has been injured this season. Allen sports a 13.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 3.1 RPG average in the 13 games Antetokounmpo has missed this season. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games at home with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They are also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Miami had their best shooting effort in their last 14 games with that 59.5% shooting percentage. But the Heat have not covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Consistency has been one of the hobgoblins for this team all season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning two games in a row. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee NBA-TV Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (51-32) looks to rebound from their 128-112 upset loss at home as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (45-39) has won eight of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Ja Morant is questionable to play tonight after he aggravated what was already a sore right hand. But this Grizzlies team has gotten comfortable playing without Morant given his history of injuries and then his recent time spent away from the team last month given his off-the-court issues. While Morant thrives in the open court, Memphis is probably more effective in their half-court offense when he is not on the court. Tyrus Jones will get more playing time if Morant is out — and he is a steadying presence as a game manager. The Grizzlies need to play better on defense after ending the regular season by allowing Oklahoma City to make 50% of their shots before the Lakers nailed 53.3% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after losing on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when playing for the second time in five days. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Lakers had their best shooting performance in their last six games with their 53.3% shooting percentage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Grizzlies in their last two meetings — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when playing with double-revenge. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis TNT Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-39) looks to rebound from their 126-123 loss on the road against the Kings in the opening game of this series. Sacramento (49-34) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have covered the point spread in 9 of those contests. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 playoff games when trailing in the series. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after winning their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 58 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-24) begins the postseason on a two-game losing streak after their 121-105 loss at Toronto as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (45-39) survived the Play-In Tournament by beating Chicago by a 102-91 score as a 5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat did not look very impressive this week after getting upset at home to Atlanta on Thursday before pulling away from the Bulls on Friday. The long week will not help their chances this afternoon — and head coach Erik Spoelstra may eventually opt to rest his key players for Game Two with his group having a better chance to steal home-court advantage in this series. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win at home. Miami has won five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Milwaukee has had the luxury of resting their key players for the last two weeks — and while rust is a concern, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing no more than five games in the last 14 days. Head coach Mike Budenholzer’s team should play fast and full of energy. The Bucks have not covered the point spread in their previous two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a point spread victory while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-39) has won three games in a row — and 10 of their last 12 games — after their 108-102 victory against Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Memphis (51-31) has lost two of their last three games — and four of their last seven — after their 115-100 loss at Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles found their rhythm after the trade deadline by improving the supporting cast around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers boast the best defense in the NBA since the trade deadline. Their size gives them an advantage on most nights. They are also third in the NBA since the trade deadline in free throw rate. They only made 41.3% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 13 games. But their defense was the difference in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And Los Angeles will come into this game rested having played only once since Sunday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Memphis may be rusty from the week off — they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Grizzlies might have played their best ball in the first half of the season. Since the trade deadline, Memphis ranks just 17th in the league in defense. Back at home, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The Lakers have the experience edge — expect a close opening game between these two teams with the value being in taking the points. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-38) concluded the regular season winning three games in a row — and five of their last six games — after a 157-101 victory at Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (48-34) has lost three games in a row — and four of their last five games — after their 109-95 upset loss at Denver as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINT(S): Golden State has been flipping the proverbial switch in preparation for the postseason all month. Their three-game winning streak was all victories by 11 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning two or more games in a row by double-digits. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Head coach Steve Kerr made a conscious effort to play more of his younger players this season to rest his core group while getting those players more experience. I suspect that is one of the reasons why the Warriors' record on the road was only 11-30 straight-up. But the playoffs are a different story — and the reigning NBA champions have a 21-3 straight-up record in Game Ones in an NBA Series under Kerr. Golden State’s metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since Stephen Curry only played in 55 games. The Warriors also get back Andrew Wiggins for this game after playing only 37 games as he took a leave from the team to attend to some family matters. While Wiggins may need some time to shake off some rusty with his shooting, he is a do-it-all player for the team who should make an immediate positive impact for the team. Sacramento embarks on their first postseason campaign since 2006 — and nerves may play a role in front of their anxious home fans. As it is, the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento may have broken an NBA record for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their struggles on defense may catch up with them now. They ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage that ranked 26th in the NBA. They will likely engage in the style of play in which this Warriors’ team thrives. Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-25) closed out their regular season winning five of six games — and eight of their last ten contests — after a 120-114 win against Atlanta as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (42-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-105 upset win at Miami as a 5.5-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks held the Heat to just 42.9% shooting on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games — but that might have more to do with the listless shooting from Miami than the quality of Atlanta’s defense. A letdown is likely as the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three days of rest. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. And in their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning at least four of their last five games. They host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They are also 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Atlanta on their home court. 20* NBA Atlanta-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (41-42) is on a three-game winning streak after their 123-118 upset win at New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Minnesota had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 108-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The winner of this game advances to the Quarterfinals of the Western Conference playoffs to play Denver.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City is playing with house money since they were expected to tank for (slightly) better odds to win the draft lottery to gain the right to pick Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two games in a row. This team has been capable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting up to six points. Minnesota held the Lakers to just a 41.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with two days of rest. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The T-Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City will be looking to avenge a 112-110 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (44-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 116-105 upset loss to Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Chicago (41-42) has won three games in a row after their 109-105 upset win at Toronto as a 6.5-point underdog on  Wednesday. The winner of this game advances to play Milwaukee in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami lacked energy on Tuesday against a Hawks team that they had beaten in seven of their previous nine matchups. In hindsight, it looked like they took Atlanta for granted — especially with a game in hand tonight against the Bulls-Raptors winner the next night. The Heat got out-rebounded by a 63-39 margin which is indicative of their lack of work ethic in that game. Jimmy Butler only made six of his 19 shots from the field as he threw up a bad bunny after bad bunny that rattled off the rim. Miami only made 42.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while Miami started slow against the Hawks and went into halftime trailing by 15 points, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after going into halftime with a deficit of 15 or more points. They get to host this single-elimination game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Chicago pulled off a 19-point comeback to upset the Raptors on Wednesday. While they have covered the point spread in all three of their current three-game winning streak, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Bulls have only allowed 186 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago swept all three games against the Heat this season with the last two meetings being by double-digits — so this dynamic should remove any chance of Miami taking this team for granted. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (40-42) has won two games in a row with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has an experience edge in this game after competing in the Play-In Tournament last season and earning the eighth seed and some valuable playoff experience. Zion Williamson remains out for this team — but when the Pelicans have a healthy Brandon Ingram to complement the veteran C.J. McCollum, this becomes a very formidable team. Ingram has missed 37 games this season — but they have won nine of their last twelve games with him back on the court to close out the regular season. Not only is that the fourth-best record in the NBA over that span, but New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Williamson. New Orleans only made 44.4% of their shots on Sunday against the Timberwolves -- their most shooting effort in their last three contests — while making only 3 of their 21 shots (14.3%) of their shots from bending the arc. But the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Ingram was spectacular in the losing effort by scoring 42 points on 16 of 28 shooting. They get to play this game at home where they are 4-1-1 ATS in their 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. And by holding Oklahoma City to just 43.5% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last 13 contests. But the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Many observers predicted that this team would spend the season tanking to improve their draft prospects — so the campaign has been a surprising success. But this is a very young group with an average age on the roster of 22.6 which is three years younger than the average age for the Pelicans roster. Charlotte has demonstrated recently that young teams can quickly get overwhelmed in this Play-In Tournament. Second-chance scoring opportunities should be an area where New Orleans will hold an edge tonight. The Thunder are the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the league — and the Pelicans are tenth in the NBA by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots. Oklahoma City was much better at home where they owned a 24-17 record — but they have a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. The Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. Ingram did not play in that game while both Jonas Valuncianas and Herbert Jones played less than 20 minutes in the game. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games in April. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). THE SITUATION: Miami (44-38) has won four of their last five games after their 123-110 win against Orlando as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (41-41) enters the postseason having lost two games in a row after their 120-114 loss at Boston as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has been a disappointment this season by making only 34.4% of their 3-pointers. But in their last five games, they are nailing 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc which has helped them post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 123.4. The Heat’s rediscovery of their shooting touch this month — just in time for the playoffs — has helped them play five straight Overs which is a good sign for them. Miami has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing four or more Overs in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing five straight Overs. The Heat get to host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami loves playing the Hawks — especially since acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Heat have won three of the four meetings between these two teams this season after beating them in the playoffs in five games last season. Not only do they have a 14-6 straight-up record against them in their 20 games against Atlanta with Butler on the team, but they have also covered the point spread in 12 of those games. The numbers are even starker when Miami is playing at home — they have won ten of their last eleven games when hosting the Hawks while covering the point spread in 8 of those games. The Heat also thrive in close games. They have played 54 games this season defined as “clutch” situations where the score was within five points with five minutes to go. They have won 32 of these games while posting the second-best Adjusted Net Efficiency rating in the NBA in those situations. Atlanta, on the other hand, ranks second-to-last in Adjusted Net Efficiency in clutch time this season — so the Heat have a good chance to pull away in this game late if the score is close. We should not read much in their six-point loss at Boston on Sunday since both teams were resting starters — but their 136-131 loss at home to Philadelphia on Friday is troubling since the Hawks played all their starters while the 76ers rested their top-six rotation players. Miami’s switching defense usually frustrates Trae Young who only scored 15.4 Points-Per-Game with a 32% shooting percentage and an 18% mark from behind the arc in their playoff series last year — way down from his 26.2 PPG scoring average last year. In their four games this season, Young has made only 36% of his shot with an ugly 25% clip from behind the arc. Atlanta has struggled this season which eventually led to the firing of head coach Nate McMillan. New head coach Quin Snyder probably needs an entire off-season to implement his system with this team. They have only gone 7-8 in their last 15 regular season games with the problem continuing to be on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks rank 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with a 115.4 mark — and that number worsens to 117.4 when on the road. In their last 15 games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has been even worse at 118.5, the sixth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Heat in Miami. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 6th with the Heat winning at home by a 130-128 score to register their second straight victory against the Hawks. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with double revenge. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (40-39) was on a two-game winning streak before their 121-103 upset loss at home to Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite last night. Memphis (50-29) has split their last four games after a 119-109 win against Portland as an 18.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans shot only 44.0% from the field last night which was the lowest-shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed the Kings to make 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last three contests. < b>The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis made 48.3% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Ja Morant and Luke Kennard combined for 43 points against the Trail Blazers but both are doubtful to play tonight due to small injuries that head coach Taylor Jenkins does not want to risk when playing tonight’s game without rest. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher when playing at home. Memphis has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans is currently in seventh place in the Western Conference — and they are one game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for sixth place in the conference which avoids the play-in tournament and gives them plenty of motivation. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis is undermanned tonight while sitting comfortably two games ahead of the Kings for second place in the conference with three games left in the regular season. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (30-8) has won five games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 — after their 72-59 victory against Miami (FL) as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (32-6) has won nine games in a row after their 72-71 win against Florida Atlantic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn has been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Both players are primed for big games tonight. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies — and now San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address this conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they are steamrolling teams again. The Huskies have covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley feels his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacks familiarity with the Huskies approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game is probably at least 68 points — they have reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But is the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they play an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they have scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They are only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc is unlikely. The Aztecs take many of their shots from the midrange — and now they play a UConn team that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs are the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They have endured a difficult schedule — but they have been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all live (and die) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn is a good 3-point shooting team, they probably have the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga shoots 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson makes 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban makes 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs have dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also rank 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They hold their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.

FINAL TAKE: UConn is the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 124-107 upset loss at Baltimore as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (37-41) has lost six of their last seven games after their 129-122 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas made 61% of their shots on Friday which was their best shooting effort of the season. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Atlanta allowed the Nets to make 55.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% or their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Mavericks on their home court. 8* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (29-8) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 82-54 win against Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (FL) (29-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 88-81 upset victory against Texas a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes nailed 59.2% of their shots against the Longhorns in what was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. Miami (FL) has pulled off three straight upsets against Indiana, Houston, and then Texas while scoring at least 85 points and making at least 48.6% of their shots in each of those games. But the Hurricanes only make 46.6% of their shots away from home which generates 76.2 Points-Per-Game — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods for this team. As it is, Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. When playing away from home, the Hurricanes score -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. But of even greater concern is their defense which ranks just 104th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Miami’s interior defense is the biggest weakness of the team. They allow their opponents to make 51.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 246th in the nation. Now they face a Huskies team with head coach Dan Hurley rotating Adama Sanogo with Donovan Clingan in the middle to ensure the team always has a reliable scorer down low. UConn makes 53.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 50th in the nation. They only made 41.7% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Saturday — so their 28-point victory could have been even worse. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. And while they put up 88 points in their Sweet Sixteen game against Arkansas, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 80 or more points in two straight games. UConn should slow down the Hurricanes' offensive attack since they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in their last ten games. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 15 games against teams outside the Big East.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on a neutral court when listed as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UConn has offered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as a favorite or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday.  This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU looks to pull off a third straight upset victory after stunning Tennessee and then the Wildcats last week. They made 48.1% of their shots against Kansas State which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also outrebounded the Wildcats by a 44-22 margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outrebounding their previous opponent by 20 or more boards. FAU scores -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State is a physical team that brings elite-level defense into this game — and that is the most reliable dynamic in this game. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB FAU-San Diego State CBS-TV Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB outlasted the Wolverines on Tuesday despite them making 41.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to score 85 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home. UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. North Texas has held all four of their opponents in the NIT to no higher than 37.9% shooting after the Badgers only made 37.5% of their shots against them — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting from the field. The Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas is playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team — and they will miss his size in this fourth meeting between these two teams. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th.  The Blazers have scored at least 10 more points against the Mean Green in each of their rematches this season. UAB has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 tournament games. 8* CBB UAB-North Texas ESPN2 Special with the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). THE SITUATION: Utah (35-40) has lost four straight games after their 117-103 loss to Phoenix as an 8-point underdog on Monday. San Antonio (19-56) has lost four in a row after their 137-93 loss at Boston as a 16.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent losing streak, Utah is only 1 1/2 games out of the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after a point spread loss. The Spurs’ four-game losing streak has involved defeats by 12 or more points each time — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after losing two or more games in a row by double-digits. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not covering the points pad in four or more games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio may be just what the doctor ordered for this Jazz team still playing hard for head coach Will Hardy. Utah will want to avenge a 102-94 loss at home to the Spurs on February 28th. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (28-8) has won three games in a row after their 74-68 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite last Wednesday. UAB (28-9) has won three games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 contests — after their 67-59 victory at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley beat the Bearcats despite only making 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are an underrated — and undervalued — team that has won seven of their last eight contests including impressive wins in this tournament at Colorado and at New Mexico who all rank in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-71 teams in the nation as of this writing. The Wolverines won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season crown but failed to reach the NCAA Tournament after getting upset in the Semifinals of the WAC Tournament by Southern Utah. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Led by 7’0 Aziz Bandaogo, Utah Valley has one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses in the nation. He ranks third in the nation with 105 blocks — and Utah Valley blocks 14.8% of opposing team’s shot attempts, ranking third in the nation. They rank fourth in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage at 44.0% — and their opponents make only 30.8% of their shots from behind the arc and 42.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 28th and third in the nation respectively. Overall, the Wolverines rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB held the Commodores to just 33.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Blazers have held their last two opponents in this tournament to just 27 points in the first half — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. UAB ranks only 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Their opponents pull down 31.6% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 279th in the nation. The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point-spread win. UAB has covered their last two games as a favorite in this tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in their previous two games including four of those last five situations this season.

FINAL TAKE: One of the power rankings I follow ranks UAB as the 30th-best team in the nation in their last ten games — but Utah Valley ranks close at 37th in those ratings. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-36) has lost two of their last three games after their 131-110 upset loss to New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (36-38) has won two games in a row and five of their last six games after their 118-108 upset loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles allowed the Pelicans to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But the Clippers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. This team is without Paul George for the next few weeks after he injured his ankle — but they still have a healthy Kawhi Leonard who is playing at a top level right now. The Clippers have lost seven in a row and fourteen of their last seventeen games when Leonard is not playing. Chicago is playing better basketball since acquiring Patrick Beverley — they crushed Portland on the road by a 124-96 win in their previous game before their upset win against the Lakers. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a  row by ten or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay in Los Angeles having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road against teams from the Western Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (29-8) has won seven games in a row with their 83-71 victory against Xavier as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (28-7) has won five of their last six games after their 89-75 upset victory against Houston as an 8-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami converted on 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from 3-point range en route to a 51.7% shooting percentage in that game which was the best effort in their last four games. But now they play a stout Longhorns defense that has played three opponents in this Big Dance that entered the game with a top-ten shooting percentage from behind the arc yet held those three foes to 18 of 60 (30%) shooting from 3-point range. The Hurricanes only made 30.2% of their shots in their opening game against Drake — so clunkers are in the repertoire. The Hurricanes have pulled off two straight upset wins after their 85-69 win against Indiana last Sunday — so an emotional letdown may be on the horizon. Miami’s scoring drops by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Texas holds their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home, ranking fourth best in the nation. And in their last ten games overall, the Longhorns boast the second-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Texas is nailing 53.9% of their shots inside the arc this season, ranking 33rd in the nation — and this is an area they should exploit against the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 204th in the nation with their opponents making 51.7% of their shots inside the arc in their last ten games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Texas is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Miami (FL)-Texas CBS-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Dutcher’s team has two significant edges in this game: depth and experience. The Aztecs have a nine-player rotation without any drop-off in talent — they rank 31st in the minute bench minutes. This reliable second unit allows the team to play so physically — and it will certainly help with just a day of rest between games. This is also a very experienced team with seven seniors and two juniors in that regular rotation. One of the power rankings systems I rely on places San Diego State as the ninth-best team in the nation — and the fifth-best team over their last ten games. Those analytics rank them the 11th-best team in the nation when playing on the road led by their defense that leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. I appreciate that this Bluejays team is better than their record given the midseason injury to Ryan Kalkbrenner that kept him out of three of their 12 losses this year. But Creighton has benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. As it is, Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And after their 85-76 win against Baylor last weekend, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after playing two straight games where they scored 75 or more points. Depth is a problem for head coach Greg McDermott’s team as they only have a six-man rotation after the injury to Mason Miller in the NC State game last week. This is a young group with three sophomores and a freshman joining a junior and a senior in their rotation. Stylistically, I worry that the Bluejays lack a Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling. Like Alabama, they live by the 3-point shots with 42.0% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc, ranking 63rd in the nation. But Creighton does not go for offensive rebounds — they pull down only 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 283rd in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 359th in the nation. San Diego State is the wrong opponent to rely almost exclusively on 3-point efficiency — as the Crimson Tide found out. The power rankings referenced above rate the Bluejays as the 14th-best team in the nation — and they fall to 18th in their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, Creighton ranks only 22nd in the nation due to a defense that is giving up +7.7 more points per 100 possessions during that span than they are at home. I think the wrong team is favored in this one — but I am quite happy to take the points for some insurance (and I consider money-line bets with underdogs to be giving away money).

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will have revenge on their minds after losing to Creighton in the Big Dance by a 72-69 score in overtime last March. This veteran team has been carrying that disappointment with them for over a year. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.