03-06-24 |
Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 |
|
70-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (18-11) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 75-70 victory against Penn State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Indiana (16-13) has won two games in a row after their 83-78 upset win at Maryland as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have scored 75 or more points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Golden Gophers stay at home where they have a 16-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 48.2% of their shots resulting in 78.6 PPG. They are also holding their guests to 41.7% shooting including a 33.7% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 65.9 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when favored. Indiana has pulled off two straight upset victories as their victory in College Park was preceded by a 74-70 upset win at home against Wisconsin. But the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory on the road. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they are just 5-8 with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Head coach Mike Woodson is running an offense Bobby Knight would appreciate as they rely on shooting inside the arc and getting to the free-throw line. But this approach may be outdated — and they rank 315th in the nation by only making 29.7% of their shots from 3-point land. This Indiana team does not play defense like Knight’s team of old either — they are allowing 78.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota wants to avenge a 74-62 loss at Indiana back on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing with revenge for a loss on the road. 10* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-24 |
Florida Atlantic v. North Texas +2.5 |
|
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). THE SITUATION: North Texas (16-12) has won two games in a row after their 84-69 victory against East Carolina as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (22-7) has won two of their last three games after their 79-73 victory against Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: Even in victory, North Texas allowed the Pirates to make 53.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Mean Green have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by 10 or more points on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. North Texas stays at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +12.5 Points-Per-Game. The Mean Green ranks fifth in the nation by making 42.2% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. They also rank third in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots when playing at home. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in AAC action. They are holding their opponents to 39.5% shooting including a 31.1% mark from behind the arc resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. North Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have lost six of their seven games this season. They rank 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 247th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. The Owls are scoring -6.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in hostile environments while allowing their home hosts to score +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted points — and those marks represent the 355th worst drop in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: The Mean Green are motivated to avenge a 66-63 loss at FAU as a 9.5-point underdog back on January 28th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-24 |
San Diego State v. UNLV +3 |
|
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). THE SITUATION: UNLV (18-10) has won four games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 68-50 victory against San Jose State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (22-7) has won two games in a row after their 72-64 win against San Jose State as a 21.5-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RUNNIN’ REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV should continue their big momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have a 10-4 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +9.7 Points-Per-Game. The Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in conference play. Over their last ten games, they rank 36th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and this improvement has been fueled on the defensive end of the court where they rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in those ten games. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning two games in a row against a conference opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. All seven of their losses are away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 72-61 score on January 6th — but the Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-24 |
Jacksonville v. Eastern Kentucky -8.5 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Northern Arizona +4 |
Top |
82-74 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-24 |
Tennessee v. Alabama -2.5 |
|
81-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). THE SITUATION: Alabama (20-8) has won four of their last five games after their 103-88 victory at Mississippi as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Tennessee (22-6) has won five games in a row after their 92-84 victory against Auburn as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when playing for the second time in seven days. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have scored 80 or more points in nine straight games — and they have scored 90 or more points in five straight contests. They return home where they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Alabama has a 14-1 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +25.2 Points-Per-Game. They are making 50.1% of their shots on their home court including 41.1 of their 3-pointers which ranks 15th best in the nation. And after allowing Kentucky and then Ole Miss to make 63.1% and 51.9% of their shots against them, they come back home where they are holding their guests to 39.7% shooting including a 28.3% mark from behind the arc resulting in 70.6 PPG. The Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when favored. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while they have won and covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. They scored 86 or more points in both of those games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 85 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while the Volunteers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Tennessee ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, they go back on the road where they drop to 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. The Volunteers rank 228th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line in true road games. They also rank 276th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Ride will be motivated to avenge a 91-71 loss at Tennessee in their lowest-scoring game of the season as they missed 17 of their 21 shots from behind the arc. But Alabama has still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Tennessee-Alabama ESPN Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-24 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 |
Top |
45-58 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (21-6) has won five of their last six games after their 71-64 victory against West Virginia as an 18-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (84-82) snapped a two-game losing streak in an 84-82 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State was flat against the Mountaineers over the weekend as they allowed them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Despite that performance, the Cyclones still rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. And while this is just their second game since last Monday, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when play for the second time in eight or more days. The Cyclones stay at home where they have a 16-0 record with an average winning margin of +25.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Net Efficiency Margin when looking only at home court advantages. They are making 49.9% of their shots at home including 39.1% of their 3-pointers which is the 32nd-best mark in the nation — resulting in 82.9 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting including a 31.2% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 57.1 PPG. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.0% of their opponent’s possessions — and they should force plenty of turnovers against this Sooners team that ranks 222nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 17.7% of their possessions. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Oklahoma nailed 50.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their previous games this season after pulling off an upset victory. Oklahoma did allow the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after giving up 80 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have a 6-5 record with an average losing margin of -1.1 PPG — but their drop in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing in a hostile environment presents the 243rd biggest discrepancy in the nation relative to their play at home. They only make 44.9% of their shots on the road in hostile environments including just 29.4% of their 3-pointers which is the 306th lowest mark in the nation. Oklahoma ranks 206nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 48.4% — and that drop compared to their eFG when at home or on a neutral court of -6.8% is the 332nd biggest discrepancy in the nation. On defense, the Sooners are allowing +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing in a hostile environment which is the 344th worst discrepancy versus their defensive efficiency at home or on a neutral court. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-24 |
Pelicans v. Pacers -6.5 |
|
114-123 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). THE SITUATION: Indiana (33-27) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 130-122 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (35-24) had their two-game losing streak snapped in their 115-92 victory in New York against the Knicks as a 6-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana comes off one of their worst games of the season. They only made 46.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. And they allowed the Raptors to make 55.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games for allowing 130 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss at home. Indiana has still covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning two of their last three games. This is their fourth game since the return from the All-Star Break — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. All three of those previous games were at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their previous three games at home. They host an undermanned Pelicans team that will be without C.J. McCollum who is nursing an ankle injury. It looks like Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram will take the court tonight after being listed as questionable with their nagging injuries — but depth will still be an issue with Dyson Daniels out with a knee and Jose Alvarado suspended. New Orleans held the Knicks to just 37.3% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 57 contests going all the way back to the second game of the season. But the Pelicans have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win. New Orleans has won five of their last seven games — but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games against teams with a winning record — and the Pacers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA New Orleans-Indiana ESPN Special with the Indiana Pacers (524) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-24 |
Nets v. Magic -6.5 |
|
81-108 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). THE SITUATION: Orlando (32-26) had won three games in a row before their 109-92 loss at Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (22-35) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-86 win at Memphis as a 2-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Paolo Banchero has been declared out for tonight’s game with an illness — and that almost was enough for me to dismiss what was initially an intriguing situational spot for Orlando. But the odds have dropped a couple of points from a line that was already shaded down a bit with his status questionable for this game from the overnight line. Checking the deeper analytics, the Magic are actually getting outscored by -1.4 Points Per 100 Possessions when Banchero is on the court — and they are then outscoring their opponents by +6.5 Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. The difference comes from Banchero’s shaky play on defense — Orlando allows -8.6 fewer Points Per 100 Possessions when he is off the court. As it is, the Magic have something to prove tonight after their loss on Sunday where they only made 41.7% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. Orlando has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The absence of Banchero tonight allows for Franz Wagner to step up and continue his good month — he has made 51.5% of his shots in February resulting in 22.3 Points-Per-Game. The Magic return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Brooklyn nailed 48.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Even better, the Nets held the Grizzlies to just 38.7% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last 18 contests. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Magic want to avenge a 129-101 loss at Brooklyn back on December 2nd as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 opportunities for revenge in a game where they allowed 110 or more points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-24 |
Maryland-Baltimore County +5.5 v. New Hampshire |
Top |
86-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). THE SITUATION: UMBC (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 62-56 loss at Maine as a 4.5-point underdog. New Hampshire (15-10) has won two of their last three games in an 83-78 victory against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RETRIEVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Baltimore Country only made 37.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 26 contests. Despite that disappointing performance, the Retrievers still lead the America East Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 31st in the nation with their 53.1% effective field goal percentage. UMBC generates good looks at the basket when playing away from home because they play at a blistering pace — they rank second in the nation by averaging only 14.4 seconds per possession. They also rank seventh in the country by averaging 73.4 adjusted possessions per game. While the Retrievers have just a 4-9 record in conference play, seven of their losses have been by six points or less — and two of those losses were by just two points or less. UMBC should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after a straight-up loss this season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss to an American East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 160s. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. New Hampshire nailed 53.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort of the season. The Wildcats converted 11 of their 27 (40.7%) of their 3-pointers in that game — but now they play a UMBC team that ranks 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. New Hampshire has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing with just one day of rest. The Wildcats rank just eighth in the American East in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing at home in conference play — and UMBC ranks fourth in the conference in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road against American East foes. New Hampshire is only making 44.3% of their shots including 34.6% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This team also plays at a fast pace — they rank 26th in the nation by averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession and they rank 21st by averaging 71.2 adjusted possessions per game. But New Hampshire tends to underachieve against similar fast-paced teams. UMBC averages 64 shots per game — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch 62 or more shots per game. On the other hand, while New Hampshire averages 62 shots per game, the Retrievers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who take 62 or more shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats did win the first meeting between these two teams in a 64-58 win on the road as a 3-point favorite on January 20th — but UMBC has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB American East Underdog of the Year with the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-24 |
Washington State v. Arizona -12.5 |
|
77-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). THE SITUATION: Arizona (20-5) rides a six-game winning streak after their 105-60 victory against Arizona State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington State (20-6) has won seven games in a row and 10 of their last 11 contests after their 72-59 victory against Stanford as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona is clicking on all cylinders right now after point guard Kylan Boswell stepped up from a slow start earlier in the season. During this six-game winning streak, Boswell is scoring 10.5 Points-Per-Game while making 35.4% of his shots from behind the arc and dishing out 4.0 Assists-Per-Game. For the fifth-scoring option, those are nice complementary numbers to Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo who are combining to score 31.8 PPG. The Wildcats are a legitimate contender to win the NCAA Tournament — and it starts with their balance on both ends of the court. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should continue their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have a 13-0 record with an average winning margin of +30.7 net Points-Per-Game. Arizona is holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting resulting in just 63.6 PPG. They are also nailing 51.9% of their shots including 39.7% of their 3-pointers en route to 94.3 PPG when playing at home. Led by Ballo, they also rank 13th in the country by pulling down 39.0% of their missed shots. Only UCLA and Stanford have played within 11 points of the Wildcats in their 13 wins at home — their next closest home game was their 15-point victory against USC. Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 home games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 12.5 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games this season as a double-digit favorite. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing on the road after a double-digit victory. And while their win against the Cardinal was preceded by a 99-79 victory at Colorado, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after two straight wins by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after two straight wins on their home court by double-digits. But now after playing their last two games at home to raise their record to 13-1 in front of their home fans, they go back on the road where they are just 7-5. The Cougars will struggle to score tonight — they only make 44.2% of their shots on the road resulting in 70.5 PPG. They rank 207th in the country by making only 32.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Washington State makes up for their mediocre shooting by pulling down 30.4% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking second in the Pac-12 — but good luck with that against the Wildcats who rank third in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 22.8% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has had this game circled since their 73-70 upset loss at Washington State as a 9-point road favorite back on January 13th. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge from an upset loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-22-24 |
Cleveland State v. Northern Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
73-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (14-13) saw their three-game snapped in a 73-72 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Cleveland State (16-11) has won two of their last three games after an 81-73 upset win against Youngstown State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a Horizon League rival. The Norse have still covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. This team leads the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and they force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on their home court. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return to play for just the second time since last Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when playing for the second time in eight days. Northern Kentucky has a 10-3 record at home with an average winning margin of +11.2 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 44.4% shooting at home including a 29.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.5 PPG. They also rank 56.6% of their shots inside the arc at home which ranks 49th in the nation — and they are making 48.9% of their shots at home overall resulting in 80.7 PPG. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing their last two games on the road. Cleveland State held the Penguins to just 43.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. They also nailed 53.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games and tied for their best effort in their last 20 contests. But the Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, while they have won four of their last six games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their defense falters — they rank 328th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Of particular concern is their interior defense when playing Northern Kentucky — they allow their opponents to make 57.8% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 351st in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 36.5% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation. The Norse pull down a solid 31.9% of their misses when playing at home. Cleveland State has a 4-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -4.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 77.6 PPG. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have 9-7 records in the Horizon League — but Cleveland State won the first meeting between these teams by an 88-85 score at home as a 4.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Norse have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-21-24 |
Nebraska v. Indiana -1.5 |
|
85-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 76-72 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Nebraska (18-8) has won two games in a row with their 68-49 victory at home against Penn State as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Indiana needs a victory after a bad stretch in Big Ten plays. The Hoosiers have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Indiana stays at home where they have a 10-4 record while making 48.4% of their shots and limiting their opponents to just 40.7% shooting. Nebraska’s victory against the Nittany Lions finished Under the 151.5-point total for that game. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 with an average losing margin of -5.5 Points-Per-Game. Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games on the road including six of their last eight contests away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana wants to avenge an 86-70 loss at Nebraska back on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 8* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-21-24 |
Furman v. Samford -7 |
Top |
72-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). THE SITUATION: Samford (23-4) was on a six-game winning streak before their 88-84 upset loss at Mercer as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Furman (15-12) has won three games in a row with their 82-65 victory against UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Samford might be coming off their worst-played game of the season. They allowed the Bears to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. They also only made 43.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests — and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 25 games. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs should shoot much better tonight as they rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. While they rank 27th in the nation with their shooting inside the arc, their 40.5% clip from behind the arc is the best mark in the country. Samford combines this excellent shooting by playing at a very fast pace. They rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per game — and they are sixth in the nation by averaging only 15.0 seconds per possession. Additionally, the Bulldogs push the pace by pressing on defense — they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents' possessions. After scoring 170 combined points in their last two games, Samford has scored at least 75 points in seven straight contests. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more combined points. They return home where they have a 15-0 record with an average winning margin of +21.2 Points-Per-Game. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 43.1% shooting when playing at home — but they are nearly unstoppable on the other end of the court. They are making 52.4% of their shots on their home court including a nation-leading 43.9% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Samford has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They have also covered the point spread in expected high-scoring games where the Total is set at 160 or higher. Furman played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the Moccasins to just 33.9% shooting. And while the Paladins do a good job in defending the perimeter, they rank 332nd in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 56.1% of their shots inside the arc. Furman had not covered the point spread in six straight games before their triumph against Chattanooga — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-10 while allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots and score 80.8 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Paladins only make 42.6% of their shots including just 32.4% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 77.9 PPG. Furman scores 80.0 PPG this season — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams scoring 77.0 or more PPG. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Furman won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-68 score back on January 24th — but Samford has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. The Paladins are outscoring their opponents by +4.5 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year is with the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-20-24 |
San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 |
|
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (638) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (637). THE SITUATION: Utah State (21-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 75-55 loss at Colorado State as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. San Diego State (20-6) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 81-70 victory against New Mexico as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State only made 38.6% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 contests. They were 7-14 from the charity stripe in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. And while they were trailing by 43-26 score at halftime in their loss to the Rams, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last contest. First-year head coach Danny Sprinkle is doing a great job overseeing this team that did not return any production from last season. The former Montana State coach was dependent on the transfer portal — led by forward Great Osobor who is scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game and 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game who played for Sprinkle as a Bobcat. Utah State ranks 14th in the nation by making 57.0% of their shots inside the arc. They rank sixth in the country by limiting their opponents to making just 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They also rank 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.3% of their missed shots. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Aggies are holding their opponents to just 41.6% shooting and a 27.8% clip from behind the arc, resulting in 66.0 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are nailing 53.2% of their shots at home including 36.3% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 11th in the nation by making 60.8% of their shots inside the arc. Utah State has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games when favored or a pick ‘em including seven of those ten circumstances this season. San Diego State may be coming off their best game of the season last Friday. The Aztecs made 56.9% of their shots which was the best field goal percentage of the season. They also held the Lobos to 35.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 12 contests. But San Diego State has then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. The Aztecs improved to 13-0 at home by beating Colorado State — but they go back on the road where they are just 7-6 this season. While they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to a rank of 48th in that metric when away from home. Of importance against the Aggies, they allow their opponents to make 51.2% of their 2-point shots when on the road, ranking 152nd in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State wants to avenge an 81-67 loss at San Diego State back on February 3rd. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including five games in a row when playing on the road. 10* CBB San Diego State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Utah State Aggies (638) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-19-24 |
North Carolina Central v. Norfolk State -6 |
|
74-80 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306662) minus the points versus the North Carolina Central Eagles (306661). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 71-67 win in overtime against South Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina Central (13-10) has lost two games in a row after their 90-82 loss at Howard as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is in first place in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference with a 6-2 record — and they are the highest-ranked team from the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics by Ken Pomeroy. They upset VCU earlier in the season. They might have the best player in the conference in guard Jamarii Thomas, a transfer from UNC-Wilmington. Head coach Robert Jones led his team to win the conference tournament in 2021 and 2022 before losing to Howard in the tournament championship game last March. The Spartans held South Carolina State to just 32.1% shooting on Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots. Norfolk State ranks third in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 40.6% shooting inside the arc. The Spartans have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay at home for this one where they have a 10-0 record with an average winning margin of +24.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to just 37.2% shooting including a 31.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 62.8 PPG. They also rank 32nd in the nation by limiting their guests to 43.9% shooting inside the arc. This is just Norfolk State’s third game since February 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored in the 6.5-9 point range. The Spartans rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and that mark rises to eighth best in the country when playing at home. They also rank 12th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents’ possessions — and that mark improves to seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponents’ possessions when playing at home. While North Carolina Central leads the MEAC by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions — their 18.4% turnover rate when playing away from home ranks 265th in the country. The Eagles nailed 56.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. NC Central has played two games in a row that finished Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They are in second place in the conference with a 5-3 record — and they also have the second-best Adjusted Net Efficiency mark of all the MEAC teams using Pomeroy’s numbers. Head coach LeVelle Moton’s team thrives in defending the perimeter — as they rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.0% shooting from 3-point range. But the Spartans only rank sixth in the conference by hitting 31.5% of their 3-pointers — so 3-point shooting is not their formula for success. The Eagles stay on the road where they are just 5-8 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. They are only making 41.3% of their shots away from home which includes a woeful 28.0% clip from downtown, ranking 334th in the nation. They are allowing their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots away from home resulting in 72.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: This Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference showdown could be the preview of the Conference Tournament Championship Game. North Carolina Central won the first meeting between these two teams on their home court by a 60-58 score on January 9th with the Spartans missing 15 of their 16 shots from behind the arc in the loss. Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* CBB NC Central-Norfolk State ESPNU Special with the Norfolk State Spartans (306662) minus the points versus the North Carolina Central Eagles (306661). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-19-24 |
Iowa State v. Houston -8 |
|
65-73 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (882) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (881). THE SITUATION: Houston (22-3) has won three games in a row along with eight of their last nine games after their 82-61 victory against Texas as a 10-favorite on Saturday. Iowa State (20-5) has won four games in a row along with seven of their last eight contests after their 82-74 win against Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston may be the best college basketball team in the country. They lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the country with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 43.2% while ranking in the top eight in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They lead the nation by blocking their opponent’s shots in a whopping 17.5% of their possessions. They rank fourth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. On offense, the Cougars are not a great shooting team but they still rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency due to their tremendous shot volume. They are fourth in the nation by pulling down 39.2% of their missed shots — and they are sixth in the country by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Houston should be fine playing on short rest since they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have a 14-0 record at home with an average winning margin of +30.4 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 33.5% shooting and a 27.0% clip from behind the arc resulting in just 48.1 PPG. They also shoot better on their home court where they make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 78.5 PPG. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court. Iowa State has covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in five or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they are undefeated on their home court, the Cyclones are just 5-5 when away from home where they both score and allow 71.2 PPG. Iowa State also struggles to make baskets — especially on the road. They are only making 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc away from home, ranking 326th in the nation. They also only convert on 64.6% of their free throws away from home, ranking 335th in the country. While they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 58th in the nation in that metric when on the road. And troublesome for this showdown, they allow their opponents to rebound 35.7% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is motivated to avenge their 57-53 upset loss at Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog back on January 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 8* CBB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (882) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (881). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-24 |
Utah State v. Colorado State -5.5 |
|
55-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (726) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (725). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (19-6) had won four games in a row before their 71-55 loss at San Diego State as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday. Utah State (21-4) has won two games in a row and five of their last seven contests after their 84-76 victory at Wyoming as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado State raced out to a 44-30 halftime lead against the Aztecs — but San Diego State put the clamps down on defense in the second half by outscoring the Rams by a whopping 41-11 margin to win that game decisively. We were on the Aztecs in that game expecting them to frustrate the Colorado State offensive attack in that revenge spot. The Rams only made 35.8% of their shots in that game in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. But they should play better tonight in their opportunities to exact some revenge. Colorado State should start well as they have gone into halftime with at least a six-point lead in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after enjoying halftime leads of at least five points in three or more games in a row. And while their game against San Diego State finished far below the 140-point total, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Despite what the Aztecs did to them, the Rams remain one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.2% — and those numbers are fueled by their 58.1% clip inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. They return home where they have a 13-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Colorado State makes 52.8% of its shots at home including 38.7% of their 3-pointers and 61.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks eighth best in the nation — resulting in 82.4 PPG. They hold their guests to 44.4% shooting including a 32.1% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.5 PPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Utah State made 56.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But now they travel from Laramie to Fort Collins for a second straight game in Mountain West altitude — and they have one less day of rest for this contest as compared to the Rams. The Aggies rank 327th in the nation in bench minutes while using mostly a six-man rotation of players who average 15 or more minutes per game. Utah State is vulnerable with their interior defense as well — they rank 253rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 52.1% of their 2-point shots. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: As mentioned earlier, Colorado State has revenge on their mind after losing at Utah State on January 6th by a 77-72 score — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* CBB Utah State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Colorado State Rams (726) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (725). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-24 |
Jacksonville v. Queens NC -1.5 |
|
65-74 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Queens University Royals (306556) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306555). THE SITUATION: Queens University (10-17) has lost three games in a row after their 93-79 upset loss at North Florida as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (13-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 66-61 loss at Kennesaw State as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS MINUS THE POINTS: Queens only made 45.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Royals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing three games in a row. They have given up 75 or more points in 16 straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Royals play at one of the fastest paces in the nation — they rank 15th in the nation by averaging only 15.2 seconds per possession. They stay at home where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +11.2 Points-Per-Game. Queens should shoot better tonight as they nail 48.8% of their shots at home resulting in 89.9 PPG. The Royals have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 home games when favored or a pick ‘em this season. Jacksonville only made 39.3% of their shots on Wednesday — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss to an Atlantic Sun rival. They stay on the road to play for the third time since last Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games when playing for the third time in seven days. They are just 3-12 away from home with an average losing margin of -14.1 PPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Queen’s University is motivated to avenge a 79-77 loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite back on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities for revenge. 8* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Queens University Royals (306556) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-24 |
Lakers v. Jazz -5 |
|
138-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). THE SITUATION: Utah (26-28) has lost two games in a row after their 129-107 loss to Golden State as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (30-26) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests after their 125-111 victory against Detroit as a 10-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers will be undermanned tonight with them playing without a day of rest before the All-Star break. LeBron James is taking a load management night off to probably rest up for the All-Star Game with the official designation being that he is dealing with an undisclosed injury. Los Angeles has already been without Cam Reddish, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Max Christie is also tonight with a right ankle sprain — but Anthony Davis is going to give it a go tonight after being listed as questionable with his right ankle all day. The Lakers did not make any moves at the trade deadline — but they did pick up Spencer Dinwiddie off waivers after he was dropped by Toronto soon after acquiring him at the trade deadline. But roster depth is an issue for this team — and they are much worse without James. They outscore their opponents by +2.0 points per 100 possessions when James is on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.2 points per 100 possessions without James. This biggest loss is on the offensive end of the court where they drop by -7.0 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers made 51.2% of their shots against the Pistons on the heels of nailing 55.7% of their shots in their previous game against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row at home — and they have to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 12-17 record while getting outscored by -3.7 Points-Per-Game. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah (26-28) has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Jazz were sellers at the trade deadline by dealing away role players Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio for draft capital — but they are still competing for the Play-In Tournament to get some postseason experience rather than embracing a soft tank to improve their draft position. Utah stays at home where they have a 17-8 record with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They are making 48.1% of their shots on their home court resulting in 123.2 PPG. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when continuing a home stand. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Utah has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers want to avenge a 132-125 loss at Utah in the last meetings between these two teams on January 13th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 22 opportunities for same-season revenge this season. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-24 |
Kings +4.5 v. Suns |
|
125-130 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (30-22) has lost three of their last four games after their 127-113 win at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (31-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 113-112 upset loss at Golden State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. And while they had covered the point spread in their three previous games, the Suns have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Phoenix returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings want to avenge a 119-117 loss in Phoenix to the Suns back on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Sacramento-Phoenix TNT Special with the Sacramento Kings (507) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-24 |
Colorado State v. San Diego State -5.5 |
|
55-71 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (636) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (635). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (18-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss in overtime at Nevada as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Colorado State (19-5) is on a four-game winning streak after their 66-47 win against San Jose State as a 15-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State allowed the Wolf Pack to make 46.5% of their shots in that game last week which was the second-worst defensive effort in three last 15 contests. They only made 40.8% of their shots as well in the loss which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Aztecs should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a perfect 11-0 record with an average winning margin of +17.0 Points-Per-Game. San Diego State should shoot better back on their home court where they are making 46.1% of their shots. But it is the Aztecs' defense that thrives when playing at home where they rank ninth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 38.6% shooting including just a 28.6% clip from behind the arc resulting in 60.2 PPG. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 board home games this season — and they have also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 4 home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 18 contests. The Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while they have played three straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Colorado State makes eight shots from behind the arc per game — but the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. And while San Diego State has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1% this season, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after 15 games into the season against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42%. Now Colorado State goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Additionally, Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as a dog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams shot 53.8% from the field in their 79-71 win at home against San Diego State on January 30th which was the worst defensive effort of the season for the Aztecs — so head coach Brian Dutcher will have his team ready to go on the defensive end of the court tonight. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road this season. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (636) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-24 |
Lehigh +2 v. Bucknell |
Top |
71-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). THE SITUATION: Lehigh (8-15) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 94-90 win in double overtime against Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Bucknell (10-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 77-62 upset loss at home against Boston University as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh survived two overtimes on Saturday despite allowing the Leopards to make 55.6% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. This is Lehigh’s third game since Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing their third game in seven days. This team appears to be finding itself under Dr. Brett Reed in his 17th year as the head coach. His team got hot in the second half of conference play last year with the Mountain Hawks finishing tied for second place in the Patriot League. While Lehigh has just a 5-7 record in conference play this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Mountain Hawks are 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots. They also lead in the Patriot League in getting to the free throw line and in making 73.6% of their shots at the charity stripe — and now they play a Bison team that ranks ninth in the league in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 road games after playing their last two games at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Lehigh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Bucknell averages 53 shots per game — and the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games against teams who do not attempt more than 53 shots per game. Lehigh has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a losing record after 15 games into the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. The Bison have a 7-5 record in the Patriot League — and they rank third in Adjusted Efficiency Margin under rookie head coach John Griffin III. But Bucknell has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss — as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Bison rank eighth in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions — and Lehigh ranks second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 17.8% of their opponents' possessions. Griffin has yet to re-establish a home-court advantage for Bucknell as they have just a 4-7 record at home while getting outscored by -3.6 net Points-Per-Game. The Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Lehigh wants to avenge an 86-80 upset loss at home against Bucknell as a 5-point favorite on January 10th. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-24 |
Drake v. Bradley -3.5 |
Top |
74-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Evansville as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (19-5) has won three of their last four games after their 92-88 win against Southern Illinois as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINTS: Bradley only made 42.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Braves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. It was a rare bad day at the offense for this team regarding shooting the basketball — they rank 12th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. They also rank 16th in the nation by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they lead the Missouri Valley Conference by making 39.6% of their 3-pointers in conference play. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. They are also playing well on the other end of the court where they are holding their guests to just 40.6% shooting resulting in 65.4 PPG. Bradley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 38 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. Drake made 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference river. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a win where they scored 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road where they won straight-up but did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Drake is second in the nation in defensive rebounding — but they will be challenged by the Braves who lead the Missouri Valley by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs’ defense takes a step back when they are playing on the road. Their opponents sport an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% when they are playing away from home, ranking 238th in the nation — and Drake ranks no higher than 215th in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting when they are away from home. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: This is Bradley’s first opportunity to play Drake since their 77-51 loss to them as a 2-point underdog in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March 5th which cost them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Braves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-24 |
San Diego State v. Nevada -1.5 |
|
66-70 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (888) minus the point(s) versus the San Diego State Aztecs (887). THE SITUATION: Nevada (18-5) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 77-63 upset win at Utah State as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. San Diego State (18-5) has won two games in a row after their 77-64 victory at the Air Force as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: The Atzecs nailed 51.0% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. But this is now head coach Brian Dutcher’s third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. San Diego State has an 11-0 record at home where they boast the nation’s tenth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the Aztecs are just 7-5 away from home — and their play on defense plummets to just ranking 59th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also only make 44.4% of their shots on the road with the biggest drop-off coming inside the arc. While San Diego State nails 56.8% of their 2-point shots when playing at home, that number drops to a 49.5% mark inside the arc when playing on the road. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Nevada registered a quality victory against the Aggies this week — but head coach Steve Alford needs a few more high-quality wins for their NCAA Tournament resume and this would be a signature victory for this team. I remain bullish on the Wolf Pack that we have backed a few times already this season. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They rank Nevada ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This group has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 23rd in the nation by turning the ball over in 14.1% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada returns home where they have an 11-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +18.4 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 38.4% shooting resulting in 61.5 PPG. They also make 38.5% of their shots at home including 32.3% of their 3-pointers resulting in 61.3 PPG. One of the weaknesses of this team is their shooting — they rank last in the Mountain West Conference by making only 49.8% of their shots inside the arc. But they are more proficient when playing at home where they make 51.6% of their 2-pointers — and they rank 45th in the nation by nailing 39.1% of their 3-pointers when on their home court. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when favored. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should build off their momentum from their victory against Utah State as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a point spread win.
FINAL TAKE: Nevada will have revenge on their mind after losing by a 71-59 score on the road back on January 17th. Alford’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of his 10 head-to-head encounters against Dutcher — and his teams cover that point spread by an average of +4.05 points. Lastly, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB San Diego State-Nevada CBS Sports Network Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (888) minus the point(s) versus the San Diego State Aztecs (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-24 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State -10.5 |
|
68-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (828) minus the points versus the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (827). THE SITUATION: Morehead State (18-5) has won five games in a row after their 67-60 victory at Tennessee Tech as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. SIU-Edwardsville (13-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 90-79 upset loss at UT-Martin as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Morehead State only made 42.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Eagles should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up victory against an Ohio Valley Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after winning five or six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread 11 times. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they have a 10-0 record with an average winning margin of +31.0 Points-Per-Game. They should shoot better tonight since they are nailing 50.8% of their shots and 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc en route to scoring 86.2 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. SIU-Edwardsville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after an upset loss in conference play. And while they have won five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they have a 3-6 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. They only make 39.1% of their shots away from home. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Morehead State wants to avenge a 61-48 upset loss on the road to SIU-Edwardsville on January 13th as a 5-point road favorite — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Morehead State Eagles (828) minus the points versus the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-24 |
Tarleton St v. Utah Valley -3 |
|
72-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (800) minus the points versus Tarleton State (799). THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (9-13) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven after an 86-67 loss at home to Grand Canyon as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Tarleton State (15-7) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 75-64 victory against Stephen F. Austin as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley only made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss including five of those seven contests this season. And while they have given up 77 and 86 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played only twice in their previous seven games — and five of their six losses during their current 1-6 run have been on the road. Utah Valley has a 7-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +7.6 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 41.9% shooting which results in 67.4 PPG. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by six points or less or are a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Utah Valley leads the Western Athletic Conference in getting to the free throw line when playing at home. They also pull down 29.9% of their missed shots in conference play at home — and the Texans rank 10th in the WAC by allowing their opponents to rebound 37.0% of their missed shots when on the road against conference opponents. Tarleton State made 51.2% of their shots on Saturday while holding the Lumberjacks to just 41.2% shooting — and both those marks were their best efforts in their last five games. But the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three or more games in a row. They have scored 75 or more points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Tarleton State has covered the point spread in three straight games and four of their last five games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they only make 41.8% of their shots and just 26.6% of their shots from behind the arc. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games when favored. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Valley Wolverines (800) minus the points versus Tarleton State (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-07-24 |
Davidson +6.5 v. Duquesne |
|
72-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Davidson Bulldogs (685) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (686). THE SITUATION: Davidson (12-9) has lost two games in a row after their 76-63 loss at Loyola-Chicago as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Duquesne (13-8) has won four straight games after their 85-71 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Davidson allowed the Ramblers to nail 46.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. Despite that performance, they have still held their last five opponents to just 39.1% shooting. The Bulldogs have endured several close losses — two of their setbacks were by one scoring possession and two more of their losses were in overtime. Davidson has rebounded to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 62 games after losing on the road to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to conference opponents. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after losing three of their last four games. Davidson has been without David Skogman the last two games — and the 6’10 senior remains questionable with a foot injury. This play would probably be higher graded if there was confirmation he was returning to action tonight — but this situation remains worthy of investment. While the Bulldogs have not scored more than 63 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have a 5-5 record — and they have covered 6 straight road games after playing on the road in their last contest. Duquesne nailed 52.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Dukes still rank last in the Atlantic 10 Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play. Duquesne has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Additionally, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while their game with Rhode Island finished above the 146.5 point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are only making 42.9% of their shots when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 130s. In their last five games, Duquesne is only making 41.8% of their shots resulting in 68.2 Points-Per-Game — and those are -4.4 PPG and -1.2 % below their season averages.
FINAL TAKE: Davidson beat Maryland on a neutral court earlier this season (although mentioning the Terrapins gives me terrible flashbacks to their painful offensive performance last night — and I knew what I was getting into when endorsing them). The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Davidson Bulldogs (685) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-07-24 |
The Citadel v. Western Carolina -11 |
|
64-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Carolina Catamounts (680) minus the points versus The Citadel Bulldogs (679). THE SITUATION: Western Carolina (16-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 88-86 upset loss in overtime at Wofford on Saturday. The Citadel (9-14) has lost three games in a row and nine of their last ten after a 62-60 loss at East Tennessee State.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Carolina comes off a frustrating loss where they lost by only two points in overtime despite only shooting 42.4% from the field and allowing the Terriers to nail 57.6% of their shots. The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a game where they did not shoot better than 43% while allowing their opponent to make 57% or more of their shots from the field. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Western Carolina stayed competitive against Wofford by making 19 of their 23 shots from the free throw line — and they also nailed 11 of their 25 (44%) of their shots from behind the arc. They return home where they rank 22nd in the nation by making 40.2% of their 3-pointers. The Catamounts make 48.7% of their shots at home resulting in 84.2 Points-Per-Game -- and they are outscoring their guests by +14.6 PPG by holding them to just 40.3% shooting. Western Carolina has lost two games in overtime during the recent string of bad luck — their three other losses were by six, four, and three points. The Citadel held the Buccaneers to just 39.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they only made four of their 23 shots (17.4%) from behind the arc in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not making more than 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Citadel ranks 283rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. The Catamounts hold their opponents to 41.1% shooting — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Citadel has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and Western Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Western Carolina Catamounts (680) minus the points versus The Citadel Bulldogs (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-06-24 |
Rutgers v. Maryland -7.5 |
|
56-53 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (602) minus the points versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (601). THE SITUATION: Maryland (13-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 63-4 loss at Michigan State as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Rutgers (11-10) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 69-59 upset loss at Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: These two teams are mirror images of each other. Both squads play ferocious defense. Both head coaches bragged about the improved athleticism on the roster this season. Neither team can hit the side of the barn when shooting the basketball. And both teams are underachieving relative to their preseason NCAA Tournament aspirations — each squad’s highest-profile victory came against Nebraska so far this season. Maryland only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. They also allowed the Spartans to make 44.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Maryland relies too much on isolation plays when they have the basketball. But this approach does get them second-chance scoring opportunities and shots at the free-throw line — and these tactics should work against the Scarlet Knights. The Terrapins rank 29th in the nation by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots when playing at home — and Rutgers ranks 280th in the country by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.6% of their misses when playing away from home. Maryland also ranks 18th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and the Scarlet Knights are middle of the pack sixth in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate in conference play. The Terrapins return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.9 net Points-Per-Game. Their lone losses were to Purdue and Michigan State which rank 2nd and 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Maryland holds their guests to 40.5% shooting which results in only 62.3 PPG. The Terps have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Maryland ranks 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the Big Ten in that metric in conference play. They also lead the Big Ten with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.8%. Now here comes Rutgers who ranks 300th in the nation and last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Scarlet Knights are even worse at shooting the basketball — they rank 358th in the nation with an eFG of 43.3% and are last in the Big Ten with their 41.2% eFG. They rallied from a 15-point halftime deficit to upset an implosion Wolverines team on Saturday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win on the road. They stay on the road where they have a 2-7 record with an average losing margin of -8.1 PPG. Rutgers shoots only 39.0% on the road with a 30.3% clip from behind the arc resulting in 64.9 PPG. They are giving up 73.0 PPG away from home because their opponents are managing to make 44.1% of their shots which is not too shabby. The Scarlet Knights rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but their opponent’s effective goal percentage of 50.4% away from home drops to 105th in the nation. Rutgers has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Nine of the Terrapins' 12 victories at home against Division I opponents have been by nine or more points. They are better equipped to grind out these expected lower-scoring games. Maryland has covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower — and Rutgers has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Maryland Terrapins (602) minus the points versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-04-24 |
Clippers -3.5 v. Heat |
|
103-95 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (32-15) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 136-125 victory at Detroit as a 12-point favorite on Friday. Miami (26-23) has won two games in a row after their 110-102 victory at Washington as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles defeated the Pistons despite allowing them to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Los Angeles offensive attack is nearly unstoppable as they made 59.6% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting 55% or better from the field. There were early bumps in the road — but head coach Tyronn Lue has figured out how to incorporate James Harden into the lineup. Usage is down for everyone from their previous levels — but this has helped Harden and Paul George be more efficient when they do have the basketball. Russell Westbrook has accepted the role of coming off the bench — and he is thriving on the second unit. And Kawhi Leonard is playing as well as he has at any time in his career. Since the first five games when Harden joined the team, the Clippers lead the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc with Leonard, George, Harden, and Norman Powell all making more than 40% of their 3s. They have a 29-8 record in their last 37 games — and they enjoyed a Net Efficiency Rating of +9.7 in January. Los Angeles has scored at least 125 or more points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after scoring 125 or more points in two or more games in a row including five of those six circumstances this season. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Los Angeles may get Ivica Zubac back on the court after being upgraded to questionable for this game — he has missed the last nine contests with a right calf injury. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games road as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 8 games against teams winning 51-60% of their games, Los Angeles has covered the point spread 7 times. Miami had endured a seven-game losing streak before winning their last two games — and that was the longest losing run in Eric Spoelstra’s tenure as their head coach. The Heat are struggling on both ends of the court. They hoped to add offense by trading for Terry Rozier from Charlotte but he has been a disappointment so far — and he has only scored 18 combined points in their two-game winning streak so it’s not as if he finally unlocked something for the team. The Heat did hold the Wizards to 41.1% shooting but that was their best defensive effort in their last nine games. Miami has played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against teams from the Western Conference opponents. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games as a dog. The Clippers are making 49.6% of their shots — and Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. To compound matters to Miami, they will be without Duncan Robinson who has missed the previous three games in the concussion protocol.
FINAL TAKE: Miami wants to avenge a 121-104 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 8-point underdog on January 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when attempting to avenge a loss when their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Miami ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (545) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-03-24 |
Drake v. Indiana State -5 |
|
67-75 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
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At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (730) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (729). THE SITUATION: Indiana State (19-3) is on a six-game winning streak after their 78-72 win at Belmont as an 8-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (18-4) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 81-70 victory as a 20.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based mostly on them being perhaps the best pure shooting team in the country. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.1% — and they rank in the top four in the country in 3-point shooting, 2-point shooting, and free throw shooting. The Sycamores should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win against a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. They return home where they have a 9-0 record with an average winning margin of +26.5 net Points-Per-Game — and they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are holding their guests to 40.6% shooting at home resulting in 64.1 PPG. They are also making 52.6% of their shots at home including 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 90.6 PPG. Indiana State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 150s. The Sycamores have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win on their home court. They outrebounded the Beacons by a 48-30 margin in that contest — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost all four of their games this season. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning their previous two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Drake’s defense wanes when playing away from home — they rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They can struggle to stop good shooters — they rank 255th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.2% when playing on the road with these teams making 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana State will be looking to avenge an 89-78 loss at Drake back on January 10th. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 20* CBB Drake-Indiana State ESPN2 Special with Indiana State Sycamores (730) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-03-24 |
Jacksonville v. Lipscomb -11.5 |
Top |
82-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
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At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (13-10) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 85-76 loss at North Florida as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (11-11) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 63-43 upset win against Austin Peay as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BISONS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 4-4 record in the Atlantic Sun Conference, Lipscomb still ranks as the top team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margins of Ken Pomeroy — and they have an impressive victory against Florida State this season. The Bisons have been resilient after losses this season — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They need to tighten up on defense after allowing 85 and 80 points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.0 net Points-Per-Game. Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last six boarded home games this season. They are holding their guests to just 41.6% shooting resulting in 75.1 PPG. But it is the Bison’s shooting on their home court that sets them apart. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.7% when playing at home — they are nailing 55.1% of their shots resulting in 93.1 PPG when in front of their home fans. Lipscomb is second in the Atlantic Sun by hitting 40.3% of their 3-pointers — and they rank third in the nation by converting 45.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They should make a ton of 3s this afternoon against this Dolphins team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert 39.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Jacksonville made 47.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games — and by holding the Governors to 34.0% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive performance in their last 11 contests. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Jacksonville leads the conference by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — but the Bisons protect their defensive glass by limiting their conference opponents to rebounding just 24.3% of their misses, ranking second in the Atlantic Sun. The Dolphins stay on the road where they have a 3-10 record with an average losing margin of -15.6 net PPG. They only make 42.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 67.2 PPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s — and Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year with the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-03-24 |
Grand Canyon v. Utah Valley +5.5 |
|
86-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (696) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (695). THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (9-12) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 77-72 loss as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. Grand Canyon (20-2) has won three games in a row as well as 17 of their last 18 contests after a 95-88 win in overtime against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a point-spread victory. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +10.9 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 41.8% shooting resulting in 65.1 PPG. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home including five of their last six contests on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing for the second time in three days. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning eight or more of their last ten contests. Now on short rest, they go back on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines look to avenge a 78-65 loss at Grand Canyon as a 13.5-point underdog back on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. 8* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Utah Valley Wolverines (696) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-24 |
San Jose State v. Nevada -11.5 |
|
60-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (890) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (889). THE SITUATION: Nevada (16-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 89-55 loss at New Mexico as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Jose State (8-13) has lost four games in a row after their 82-61 loss at Utah State as a 13.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada played their worst game of the season on Sunday on the road in The Pit. Their 33.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort of the season — and it was the worst defensive performance of the season by allowing the Lobos to nail 58.6% of their shots. This is a get-right game for this team. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 30 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They rank Nevada ranks 51st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 26th in the nation by turning the ball over in 14.4% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank ninth in the nation in free throw rate — and they host a Spartans team that ranks 242nd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Nevada returns home where they have a 10-1 record this season with an average winning margin of +17.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 38.4% shooting resulting in 61.5 PPG. They also make 48.8% of their shots at home including 37.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 78.8 PPG. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 9.5 to 12 points. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road. The troubling dynamic of this team that makes a bounce-back unlikely is their cratering play on defense. The Spartans rank last in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after allowing their last five opponents to nail 56.5% of their shots resulting in 81.2 PPG. The Aggies made 60.0% of their shots against them on Tuesday which was the fifth straight game they have allowed an opponent to make 50.7% or more of their shots. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after allowing their previous opponent to make 60% or more of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after allowing four or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. And while the Spartans have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Nevada’s biggest weakness is their defensive rebounding — they rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.1% of their missed shots. But San Jose State is not equipped to take advantage of this weakness — they are only pulling down 25.8% of their missed shots which ranks tenth in the MWC. The Spartans stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These teams last played last March 9th in the Mountain West Conference tournament when San Jose State upset the Wolf Pack by an 81-77 score. Nevada will have revenge on their mind from that loss — and this Spartans team does not have the size or depth of that 21-win team. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (890) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-24 |
Wisconsin v. Nebraska +1.5 |
|
72-80 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (790) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Wisconsin Badgers (789). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (15-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-51 loss at Maryland as a 5-point underdog last Saturday. Wisconsin (16-4) has won three games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 81-66 victory against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Nebraska has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games for a loss to a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a loss on the road. They turn home where they have a 13-1 record with an average winning margin of +13.1 net Points-Per-Game. Nebraska holds their guests to just 39.3% shooting resulting in 67.6 PPG. They are also making 46.2% of their shots at home resulting in 80.7 PPG. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games in conference play. Additionally, Nebraska has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Cornhuskers' best attribute is their 3-point shooting — they rank second in the Big Ten by making 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, Nebraska is nailing 48.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in conference play. The Badgers are vulnerable to outside shooting, especially on the road where they rank 351st in the nation with their home hosts making 40.0% of their 3-pointers. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after three or more conference games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Cornhuskers will be looking to avenge an 88-72 loss at Wisconsin as a 5-point underdog back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge on their minds. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (790) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Wisconsin Badgers (789). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-24 |
Southern Miss v. Arkansas State -5 |
Top |
71-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (8-13) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after an 85-82 loss in overtime at UL-Monroe as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Southern Mississippi (12-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-67 loss at Marshall as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State only made 32.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-worst shooting effort of the season and their worst effort in 16 games. Under head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Red Wolves return home for the first time since January 13th where they have a 5-2 record along with an average winning margin of +9.4 Points-Per-Game. On their home court is where Hodgson’s offensive attack explodes — the former assistant for Nate Oats at Alabama has his team rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Arkansas State makes 50.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.4 PPG which is +10.1 PPG above their season average. Hodgson plays the math game by having his team take 46.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 24th in the nation. Arkansas State ranks second in the conference by making 37.1% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 17th in the nation by hitting 42.3% of their shots from behind the arc when at home. They should hit plenty of 3-pointers against this Golden Eagles squad that ranks 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Wolves should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they rank 63rd in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and Southern Mississippi allows their opponents to rebound 31.4% of their missed shots, ranking 272nd in the nation. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 road games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. Southern Mississippi lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with the Red Wolves when they are playing at home. The Golden Eagles rank 12th in the Sun Belt by making only 46.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have scored less than 70 points in four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have a 5-8 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. Southern Mississippi makes only 42.4% of their shots on the road resulting in only 69.5 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State is looking to avenge a 69-66 upset loss at Southern Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on January 17th. The Red Wolves get this rematch at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-24 |
Nuggets v. Thunder -5.5 |
|
100-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (32-15) has lost two straight games after their 107-101 upset loss against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Denver (33-15) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 113-107 victory against Milwaukee as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 44.3% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Thunder have bounced back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after losing by six points or less. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games when favored. Denver will be without Nikola Jokic tonight as he is nursing a sore lower back. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games winning four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver wants to avenge a 119-93 loss at home to Thunder as a 1.5-point favorite back on December 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against divisional rivals. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (580) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (579). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-24 |
Morgan State v. Norfolk State -13 |
Top |
73-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (13-8) has won three straight games after their 68-58 victory against Coppin State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Morgan State (6-14) has won two straight games after their 85-79 upset victory as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is the top-ranked team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference according to Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics — and they have an impressive non-conference victory against VCU. The Spartans missed all of their 12 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after nailing no more than 20% of their shots from behind the arc. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning four of their last five contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing with only one day of rest. They stay at home where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +33.3 net Points-Per-Game. Norfolk State holds their opponents to just 36.3% shooting resulting in only 60.6 PPG. They also nail 52.0% of their shots at home resulting in 93.9 PPG. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Norfolk has several ways to generate extra-scoring possessions to help them blow out the Bears. They rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Morgan State is very vulnerable on this front as they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.9% of their possessions. The Spartans also lead the MEAC by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Bears rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 38.3% of their missed shots. Furthermore, Norfolk State ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they make 75.7% of their freebies (47th in the nation) — and Morgan State ranks 331st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. The Bears made 54.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance in their last eight games. But Morgan State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset victory. That final score finished Over the 153.5-point total — but the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have a 1-11 record with an average losing margin of -18.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 49.3% of their shots including 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 83.7 PPG. Morgan State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road including just 29.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 65.4 PPG. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 145 to 149.5.
FINAL TAKE: Morgan State ranks 323rd and 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when laying 12.5 to 15 points. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-24 |
Texas v. BYU -7 |
Top |
72-84 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). THE SITUATION: BYU (14-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-68 loss against Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Texas (14-5) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 upset victory at Oklahoma as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has lost four of their last six games as they experience the gauntlet of Big 12 play. Those four losses were against conference opponents that all rank in the top 32 teams according to Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin ratings. The Cougars have registered quality wins against Iowa State and San Diego State which rank 12th and 22nd according to those Pomeroy rankings. This is a balanced team that ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after playing three or more games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have a 10-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +25.9 net Points-Per-Game. The Cougars hold their guests to just 39.6% shooting resulting in just 62.8 PPG. They also nail 48.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.7 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 150s. Texas played their best defensive game in their last six games by holding the Sooners to just 39.3% shooting. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Texas has scored 71 or more points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those contests. The Longhorns rank just 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are even worse on the other end of the court where they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.2% of their shots even after their strong effort against Oklahoma. Interior defense is a weakness as Texas allows Big 12 opponents to make 52.2% of their inside the arc — and BYU ranks seventh in the nation by converting 62.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home. The Longhorns stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.9 PPG due to them surrendering 77.3 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-24 |
Cavs +6 v. Bucks |
|
112-100 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (26-16) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (31-13) has won six of their last seven games with that win at home against the Cavaliers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland made 50.5% of their shots which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They also allowed the Bucks to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last ten contests. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four contests. And while they complete their four-game road trip they started last Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when playing for the fourth time in seven days. Despite being without Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for about six weeks, Cleveland is playing very good basketball. The spacing has been better for Donovan Mitchell who has carried this team on the offensive of the court. On defense, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has forced an identity for this group based on effort and tenacity. They had held four straight opponents to less than 100 points before the Bucks scored 126 on Wednesday. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting resulting in 101.2 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Milwaukee was in a celebratory mood on Wednesday with new pre-game dance routines after their Wicked Witch of the West, first-year head coach Adrian Griffin got fired. While Doc Rivers has been hired to replace him, it will be interim head coach Joe Prunty in charge once again tonight. The Bucks had not covered the point spread in five straight games before Wednesday but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Play on the defensive end of the court has been the problem for this team — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 128.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games on their home court. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in January. And while the Cavaliers are outscoring their opponents by 3.9 PPG, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (569) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-24 |
San Francisco +9.5 v. Gonzaga |
|
72-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (809) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (810). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-5) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 77-60 upset loss against Saint Mary’s as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Gonzaga (13-5) has won four of their last five games with their 105-63 win at San Diego as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco only made 41.2% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They also allowed the Gaels to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Dons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.6 net Points-Per-Game — and they hold these home teams to just 41.4% shooting from the field. The Bulldogs average 64 shots per game — but San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams who launch 64 or more shots per game. Gonzaga nailed 56.5% of their shots last Saturday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after making 55% or more of their short in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by 15 or more points. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while the Dons hold their opponents to just 40.9% shooting, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. San Francisco is outscoring their opponents by +15.9 PPG — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 8* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco Dons (809) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-24 |
Colorado v. Washington +3.5 |
|
98-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (742) plus the points versus the Colorado Rockies (741). THE SITUATION: Washington (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 90-80 loss at Stanford as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Colorado (14-5) has won three games in a row after their 90-57 win against Oregon State as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington allowed the Cardinal to nail 50.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss by ten or more points. They return home where they have a 7-2 record with an average winning margin of +10.1 Points-Per-Game. Washington should play better on the defensive end of the court tonight where they hold their guests to 41.9% shooting and a mere 27.4% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.1 PPG. The Huskies also make 48.9% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Colorado nailed 52.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests — and they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Beavers to just 33.3% shooting. The Buffaloes have won three games in a row by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after two or more double-digit victories in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after beating three or more conference rivals in a row. This is Colorado’s third game since last Thursday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing for the third time in seven days. The Buffaloes go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road when favored or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Washington looks to avenge a 73-69 loss at Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog on December 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Washington Huskies (742) plus the points versus the Colorado Rockies (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-24 |
Wyoming v. San Diego State -17 |
|
65-81 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (650) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (649). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (15-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-66 upset loss at Boise State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming (10-8) has won two games in a row with their 98-93 upset win against Nevada as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. They return where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +17.4 Points-Per-Game. The Aztecs hold their opponents to just 38.1% shooting resulting in 58.9 Points-Per-game when playing at home. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Wyoming nailed 57.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance for them all season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road coming off a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 3-7 with an average losing margin of -9.5 PPG. They are only making 42.1% of their shots including just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 67.9 PPG on the road. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. Wyoming struggles to take advantage of their possessions since they turn the ball over 21.2% of the time, ranking 343rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 32.6% of their missed shots when on the road, ranking 300th in the nation when playing on the road. The Aztecs lead the Mountain West Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their games this season as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (650) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-24 |
Kent State +1.5 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
90-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). THE SITUATION: Kent State (9-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-71 loss to Akron in a pick ‘em contest on Friday. Bowling Green (14-4) has won four games in a row as well as 12 of their last 13 contests after their 84-79 victory against Western Michigan as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINT(S): In head coach Rob Senderoff we trust to right the ship for his team tonight — Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Under Senderoff’s leadership, the Golden Flashes have won at least 19 games in the last nine non-shortened COVID seasons (and his 2020-21 team that season was 15-8). Kent State won the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season before losing to Indiana in the Big Dance. While the top three scorers from that team moved on, the front court that was the foundation of that team is back. Chris Payton has emerged as one of the best players in the conference with the forward scoring 14.1 Points-Per-Game on 50.3% shooting and 8.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. Jalen Sullinger has moved into the starting lineup this season to score 14.3 PPG while making 39.8% of his 3-pointers. The Golden Flashes lead the MAC by nailing 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from downtown against this Falcons team that ranks 263rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and visiting teams are nailing 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Conference opponents are making 38.9% of their 3-pointers against the Falcons. Kent State has lost both of their games that went into overtime this season -- or perhaps their record would be better. They still rank as the fourth-best team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin metrics of Ken Pomeroy — and Bowling Green ranks fifth in the MAC according to those numbers. Another power rankings system places Kent State as the 173rd best team in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 154th in the nation when playing away from home. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog getting up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s. Bowling Green has scored 78 or more points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Falcons have overachieved under first-year head coach Todd Simon who they hired away from Southern Utah in the offseason. Injuries have led Simon to rely on essentially a seven-man rotation. They have benefited from an overtime win against Eastern Michigan and a two-point victory against Southern Indiana. Their five victories in conference play have been against opponents who have a combined 11-18 record in the MAC. Bowling Green stays at home where they have a 9-1 record — but they rank just 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their 141st rank when playing away from according to those second set of power rankings I consider. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points. Simon’s offense relies on a fast pace and drawing fouls — they lead the Mid-American Conference in free throw rate. But the Golden Flashes have the third-best opponent free throw rate in the conference. Kent State nails 45.2% of their shots from the field while averaging eight made 3s per game. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 45% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Kent State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-24 |
Tex A&M Commerce v. Lamar -5 |
Top |
65-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). THE SITUATION: Lamar (9-9) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 78-77 upset loss at Houston-Christian as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M-Commerce (7-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 68-52 upset win at Southeast Louisiana on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar opened their Southland Conference schedule with three straight victories before losing at Incarnate Word and then Houston-Christian. They allowed the Huskies to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Cardinals have allowed at least 76 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. Now after playing their three games on the road, Lamar returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game with them scoring 90.9 PPG. The Cardinals should play better on defense tonight since they hold their guests to 40.0% shooting on their home court. Lamar has covered the point spread in all 4 of their boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 boarded home games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after playing two or more games in a row on the road. Furthermore, Lamar has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing their last two games on the road. And while they did not cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Cardinals should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. They rank 67th in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and they improve to 23rd in the country by rebounding 37.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. The Lions rank 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.7% of their missed shots — and when on the road, their opponents rebound 36.7% of their missed shots. Texas A&M-Commerce nailed 45.6% of their shots on Saturday to break their losing streak in what was the best shooting performance in their last five games. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time on the road in the last three days. Texas A&M-Commerce is just 2-7 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by -18.1 net PPG. They only make 37.1% of their shots away from home resulting in just 57.3 PPG which is -16.2 fewer PPG than their season average. The Lions live-and-die by the 3 — they rank 9th in the nation by taking 48.9% of their shots from behind the arc. But they only make 28.8% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 338th in the nation — and that mark drops to just 24.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home, ranking 357th in the nation. Texas A&M-Commerce averages 10 mades 3s per game from 30 shot attempts from behind the arc per game — but Lamar usually exceeds point spread expectations when facing teams like this. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who average at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games against opponents who average at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game.
FINAL TAKE: Lamar has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. 25* CBB Southland Conference Game of the Month with the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-24 |
Texas A&M -2 v. LSU |
|
73-69 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (697) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (698). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 78-77 upset loss at Arkansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. LSU (11-6) has won five of their last six games after their 89-80 win against Ole Miss as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road. The Aggies are reliable when playing on the road because they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. They should have success against this Tigers team that allows their opponents to pull down 30.1% of their missed shots, ranking 224th in the nation. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. LSU nailed 48.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win against a fellow SEC rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning four or five of their last six games. LSU stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Aggies will have revenge on their minds after getting upset at home to LSU by a 68-53 score as an 11.5-point favorite on January 6th. They could not hit the side of a barn in that game as they only made 25.4% of their shots including missing 23 of their 28 shots from behind the arc in what was their worst shooting performance of the season. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home by ten or more points. 20* CBB Texas A&M-LSU ESPNU Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (697) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-24 |
Indiana v. Wisconsin -10.5 |
|
79-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (890) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (889). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 87-73 upset loss at Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Indiana (12-6) has lost two of their last three games with an 87-66 loss to Purdue as a 9.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin allowed the Nittany Lions to make 53.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 42.0% shooting which results in 65.7 Points-Per-Game. Wisconsin has a 9-1 record at home with an average winning margin of +13.9 PPG. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -7.0 PPG. The Hoosiers rank 71st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — but the other end of the court has been even worse for them as they rank 184th on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Indiana’s most reliable trait with the basketball is getting to the free throw line — they rank 24th in the nation in free throw rate. But the Badgers lead the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate — and they also lead the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding only 19.6% of their missed shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. The Hoosiers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and their explosive offense has helped them win 10 of their 13 games by double-digits this season. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow Big Ten rivals. 10* CBB Indiana-Wisconsin FS1-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (890) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-24 |
Canisius +8.5 v. Iona |
|
58-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Canisius Golden Griffins (883) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (884). THE SITUATION: Canisius (7-9) has lost five of their last six games after their 88-63 upset loss at home to Fairfield as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Iona (7-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 87-70 win against Mount St. Mary’s as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GRIFFINS: Canisius played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Stags to nail 57.1% of their shots. The Golden Griffins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. Canisius should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Association rival, the Golden Griffins have covered the point spread 6 times. Iona made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they are just 4-3 with an average winning margin of just +5.8 Points-Per-Game under first-year head coach Tobin Anderson who replaced Rick Pitino in the offseason. Iona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in January.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Griffins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. 8* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Canisius Golden Griffins (883) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-24 |
Wagner v. Merrimack -6.5 |
Top |
71-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). THE SITUATION: Merrimack (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-70 upset loss at Central Connecticut State as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Wagner (8-7) has won four of their last five games after a 64-54 victory against Stonehill as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack has won the Northeast Conference regular season title in two of their four seasons at the Division I level — and they won both the regular season crown and the conference tournament last year. Now eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, there is an additional excitement around the program. Head coach Joe Gallo has overseen the only program in the NEC to not have a losing record in the last four seasons in conference play. And while the program lost its top three players in the transfer portal to bigger programs, they still have sophomore Jordan Derkack who has emerged into being the leading candidate to win Conference Player of the Year honors. For Gallo, it all starts with the tricky 2-3 zone he deploys to frustrate their opponents. The Warriors rank 44th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.6%. Merrimack also forces turnovers — they rank ninth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions. Gallo had his players' attention this week after they allowed Central Connecticut State to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Warriors have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a Northeast Conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less. And in their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread 13 times. They return home to play for just the seventh time this season. They beat UMass-Lowell out of the American East on their home court by six points in a quality win since the River Hawks are projected to compete for their conference title. The Warriors rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court where they are undefeated — and they have a 13-game winning streak at home going back to last season. With the addition of 7’0 Jacob O’Connell to this year’s squad, Merrimack is playing better interior defense — they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.0% shooting inside the arc. Wagner is going to struggle to score tonight — they rank 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%. The Seahawks made only 40.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 306th in the nation — and that mark drops to 39.0% when playing away from home, ranking 360th in the nation. They did make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row in conference play by double-digits. Additionally, while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Wagner has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5-9 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 54 and 56 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Wagner is vulnerable inside — they allow their opponents to make 51.8% of their shots inside the arc. Led by Derkack, the Warriors make 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 120th in the nation. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Month with the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-24 |
Oregon v. Colorado -5.5 |
|
70-86 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (840) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (839). THE SITUATION: Colorado (12-5) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 68-58 victory against USC as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon (13-3) has won six games in a row after their 80-73 win against California as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory at home against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +18.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win at home against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while this is just their second game since January 6th, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days.
FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against the Ducks — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Oregon when hosting them in Boulder after their 68-41 victory as a 3-point favorite on January 5th of last year. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (840) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-24 |
Washington +2.5 v. California |
Top |
77-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-61 upset loss at UCLA as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. California (6-11) has lost four of their last six games after their 80-73 loss at Oregon as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington laid an egg against a struggling Bruins team. Their 40.4% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed UCLA to make 50.0% of their shots which was the second opponent’s field goal percentage they surrendered all season. The Huskies should rebound with a strong effort as they typically do under head coach Mike Hopkins. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss against a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Hopkins hit the transfer portal in the offseason to upgrade the talent on his roster — and he has two former Kentucky players leading this team. Sahyr Wheeler gives him his first pass-first point guard in his tenure at Washington — and Keion Brooks is in contention for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Washington has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. California has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Golden Bears return home where they are only 5-4 with an average winning margin of +1.8 Points-Per-Game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Golden Bears are considered underrated due to four losses by three points or less along with two other losses in overtime — but the Huskies have similar claims that they could easily have a better record. Washington has lost five of their games by five points or less including an overtime loss to San Diego State. They have registered high-profile victories against Gonzaga and Xavier that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 25th and 26th best teams in the nation according to his net Adjusted Efficiency Margin metrics. All the computer models I follow project the Huskies as a small favorite — so the market may be overvaluing Cal’s close losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-24 |
Bulls -2 v. Raptors |
|
116-110 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-91 loss at Cleveland on Monday. Toronto (16-25) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-97 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raptors were undermanned last night because of injuries and their big trade with Indiana that sent away Pascal Siakam. While last night was a nice accomplishment, the challenge will be even tougher tonight playing with a limited bench with a day of rest. Toronto acquired Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, and Kira Lewis, Jr. yesterday but these players will not be available to play tonight. With Jakob Poetl and Otto Porter, Jr. out with injuries, the Raptors will have a thin bench supporting Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley. As it is, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a victory by 20 or more points. And while the Raptors have not allowed more than 105 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Toronto has covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Chicago only made 42.2% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their seven games this season after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season after a double-digit loss to a Central Division rival. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have gotten nice production from Zach LaVine after there were some concerns that he would disrupt the chemistry that had developed after he missed extended time with an injury. The Bulls have won four of their six games since he returned to action — and he has scored 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 42.4% of his 3-pointers in his last five games. He has also shown more intensity on the defensive end of the court. Despite their recent play on defense, the Raptors are still allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots this season — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 48% or higher. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 121-108 loss at Toronto as a 5.5-point underdog on November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities for revenge. 10* NBA Chicago-Toronto TNT Special with the Chicago Bulls (521) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-24 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma -11.5 |
|
63-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (720) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (719). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (13-3) has lost two games in a row after their 78-66 loss at Kansas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. West Virginia (6-10) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 76-73 upset win against Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma only made 40.0% of their shots against the Jayhawks which was the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they are 10-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.8 net Points-Per-Game. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they are 0-5 with an average losing margin of -10.8 net PPG. They are only making 38.1% of their shots on the road resulting in just 64.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games. 8* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma Sooners (720) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-24 |
Bradley v. Southern Illinois +2.5 |
Top |
70-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (12-5) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 76-58 loss at home to Drake as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bradley (12-5) has won six games in a row after their 77-59 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINT(S): Southern Illinois might have played their worst game of the season against a good Drake team that is second in the Missouri Valley Conference by ranking 66th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Salukis made only 36.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home where they did not score more than 60 points. They only scored 2 points in the first half against Drake — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their previous game. And by allowing the Bulldogs to nail 56.4% of their shots, Southern Illinois played their worst defensive game of the season. But the Salukis have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. After losing two All-Conference players from last year’s team that finished 14-6 in conference play, head coach Bryan Mullins gotten this group playing competing once again for a Missouri Valley Conference title with a 4-2 start in conference play. Southern Illinois has a 9-2 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 48.2% of their shots at home while holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting — so they should play better tonight on both ends of the court. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They match up well with the Braves who take 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc (ranking 81st in the nation) — and they average 24 shots from 3-point land per game. Southern Illinois ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to 26.4% shooting from behind the arc — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams who average 21 or more shots from 3-point land per game. The Salukis also rank fourth in the MVC in getting to the free throw line — and Bradley ranks 10th in the conference in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, Bradley leads the MVC by pulling down 35.7% of their shots — but Southern Illinois holds their conference opponents to rebounding only 23.2% of their missed shots. The Braves have covered the point spread in four straight games as well as five of their last six boarded games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven boarded games. And while Bradley has not allowed more than 64 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 65 points in five or more games in a row. The Braves are also 4-2 in conference play — but they miss center Rienk Mast’s scoring from last year’s team that won the regular season crown. Bradley only makes 45.0% of their shots including 34.9% from behind the arc when playing away from home. The Braves failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-24 |
Nuggets v. 76ers -1.5 |
Top |
121-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-13) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 124-115 victory against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite yesterday. Denver (28-13) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 117-109 victory against Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Joel Embiid returned to action yesterday after missing the previous three games — and he scored 41 points and added 10 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Embiid has scored at least 30 points and pulled down at least 10 boards for the 16th straight game. Now Embiid has an opportunity to showcase his talents on TNT tonight — and he usually is very motivated in situations like this. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a straight-up victory. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their home court. Philadelphia is a balanced team that ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and those numbers take into account Embiid missing 11 games due to injury this season. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. Denver nailed 64.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Sunday which was the best shooting effort for them all season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. They go back on the road where they are just 11-9 this season with an average winning margin of just +0.2 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Denver allows their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots — and they have been playing loose on the defensive end of the court as of late. The Nuggets’ last five opponents are making 49.2% of their shots resulting in 116.4 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season defensive scoring average. The 76ers are undermanned tonight with De’Andre Melton, Robert Covington, and some role players out tonight — and this is why the point spread is as low as it is. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut that scores 116.2 PPG on 49.8% shooting — but the 76ers usually perform well against these types of teams. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who score at least 116 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 games against teams who shoot 48% or better from the field. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Bulls -6 v. Spurs |
|
122-116 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). THE SITUATION: Chicago (18-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 140-131 loss to Golden State as a 3-point favorite last night. San Antonio (7-30) has won two games in a row after their 135-99 victory against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago allowed the Warriors to nail 52% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. That game was just the fifth time in three seasons when the Bulls gave up at least 135 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those previous 4 situations. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. Head coach Billy Donovan is not resting any players despite the back-to-back contest tonight — but the same cannot be said for Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. Victor Wembanyama is getting the night off which means they will be without their best player — and that leaves them undermanned with three other players in the rotation out with injuries including starter Zach Collins. San Antonio played their best defensive contest in their last seven contests by holding the Hornets to only 36.0% shooting. But the Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 18 games played without rest this season. Additionally, San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Chicago Bulls (531) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-24 |
Pelicans v. Nuggets -5 |
|
113-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). THE SITUATION: Denver (26-13) lost two of their last three games after their 124-111 upset loss at Utah as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. New Orleans (23-15) has won six of their last seven contests with their 141-105 victory at Golden State as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver may have played their worst game on Wednesday since winning the NBA championship last June. They only make 45.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Their defensive performance was even worse with the Jazz’s 55.4% shooting percentage being the worst opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss against a Northwest Division rival. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Nuggets return home where they have a 15-4 record with an average winning margin of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. They should enjoy a much game on the offensive end of the court as they make 51.0% of their shots including 38.7% of their launches from behind the arc resulting in 120.5 PPG. Nikola Jokic usually dominates the Pelicans Jonas Valanciunas as well. In his last ten meetings against Valanciunas, he is scoring 30.6 PPG while adding 14.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 10.7 Assists-Per-Game. Denver has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while the Pelicans have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. New Orleans plays for the third time in a row on the road as they continue a six-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last seven games after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans had four starters listed as questionable earlier today — but all four are expected to play tonight. Still, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds tonight after losing on the road in New Orleans to this team by a 115-110 score as a 4.5-point favorite on November 17th. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (516) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-24 |
Butler v. Marquette -11.5 |
|
69-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (732) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (731). THE SITUATION: Marquette (11-4) looks to rebound from their 78-75 upset loss at Seton Hall as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Butler (10-5) has lost three games in a row after their 88-81 loss to Connecticut as a 5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Marquette allowed the Pirates to nail 52.7% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for their worst defensive effort all season. But this team has been resilient under head coach Shaka Smart. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Marquette got outworked on the boards by getting outrebounded by a 43-25 margin — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by -15 or more Rebounds-Per-Game. And while their game with Seton Hall finished above the 144-point total, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Marquette ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.6% of their opponent’s possessions. They are a battle-tested team whose seven Quad One opponents are tied for the most of all the teams that rank in the top 100 in the NET ratings. They return home where they have a 37-4 record under Smart while riding a 19-game winning streak. The Golden Eagles have won all eight of their games at home this season by an average margin of +21.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 40.6% resulting in 64.0 PPG. On the other end of the court, Marquette is making 48.6% of their shots including 36.5% of their 3-point attempts at home resulting in 85.1 PPG. They also rank 20th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc at home — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Bulldogs who rank 292nd in the nation by allowing their home hosts to shoot 55.3% inside the arc when they are playing on the road. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 150s including 10 of their last 12 games at home with the Total in the 150s — and Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last six boarded games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. This is just their second game since January 2nd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when playing their second game in eight days including failing to cover the point spread in five of those six circumstances this season. They go back on the road where they are just 2-4 — and they have lost their true road games in a hostile environment by double-digits. They score -8.3 fewer PPG and make -3.5% fewer shots from the field when on the road versus their season average. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog in all situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in January — and the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in January. 10* CBB Butler-Marquette CBS Sports Network Special with the Marquette Golden Eagles (732) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (731). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-24 |
Houston v. Iowa State +2.5 |
|
53-57 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (634) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (633). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (11-3) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (14-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 89-55 victory against West Virginia as a 19.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They only made 42.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They also allowed the Sooners to make 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. Despite those results in Norman, Iowa State still ranks fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation in that defensive metric when playing on their home court. Nothing like hosting an undefeated Cougars team ranked number one in the nation by most laptops to redeem oneself from a bad effort. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They return home where they are 9-0 this season with a whopping +38.1 net Points-Per-Game margin. Iowa State is very tough to score on when they are playing at home — they hold their opponents to just 35.7% shooting resulting in 53.3 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones should shoot much better tonight even against the outstanding Houston defense. Iowa State makes 53.3% of their shots at home including 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.4 PPG. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games at home this season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Houston nailed 53.1% of their shots against the Mountaineers on Saturday which was their best shooting effort of the season. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Houston scored 81 points in their previous game against Pennsylvania — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 20 or more points against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points against a conference opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on their home court. This is Houston’s only second true road game in a hostile environment — they previously won at Xavier by six points to hand the Mountaineers one of their seven losses already this season. The Cougars will likely struggle to score. Their 69.2 PPG scoring average on the road is -7.7 PPG below their season average — and their 41.3% field goal percentage away from home is -3.3% below their season average. Houston also struggles to make their free throws — they rank 306th in the nation by making only 66.8% of their shots at the charity stripe. The Cougars also rank 196th in the nation by making only 49.6% of their shots inside the arc — so easy baskets are going to be hard to come by. Houston also puts their opponents on the free throw line — they rank 290th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This is an area of strength for the Cyclones as they rank 25th in the nation in free throw rate when they have the basketball.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars play at a fast pace — they average 62 shot attempts per game. But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against opponents who average 62 or more shot attempts per game. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games against teams with an 80% or higher winning percentage. 10* CBB Houston-Iowa State ESPN2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (634) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-24 |
North Carolina v. Clemson -2.5 |
|
65-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (612) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (611). THE SITUATION: Clemson (11-2) looks to rebound from their 95-82 loss at Miami (FL) as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. North Carolina (10-3) has won three games in a row with their 70-57 win at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Tigers allowed the Hurricanes to nail 53.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. After going into that game holding their opponents to 69.0 Points-Per-Game, Miami (FL) scored 60 potions against them in the second half. Clemson has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to a conference foe. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They return home where they are unbeaten in their six games with an average winning margin of +21.6 PPG. They hold their guests to just 39.7% shooting on their home court resulting in just 66.2 PPG. But after only making 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday — their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games — they should shoot much better this afternoon. The Tigers make 51.1% of their shots from the field at home including 43.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 87.8 PPG. North Carolina held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten contests. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a road victory against an ACC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory on the road. And while they have won six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. North Carolina stays on the road this week for just their second true road game all season in a hostile environment.
FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games as a pick ‘em or underdog of up to six points. 10* CBB North Carolina-Clemson ESPN2 Special with the Clemson Tigers (612) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-24 |
Raptors v. Kings -4.5 |
|
130-135 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 138-135 win against Orlando in overtime as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (14-20) has won two games in a row after their 116-111 upset victory at Memphis as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 20 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in two of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 135 or more points in their last contest. Head coach Mike Brown recently made a lineup change by inserting Chis Duarte into the starting lineup for Kevin Huerter. Duarte is a high-energy player who does not need the ball in his hands — and Huerter can get more scoring opportunities with the second unit facing the opponent’s reserves. De’Aaron Fox is making a strong claim to be worthy of the first-team All-NBA after improving his 3-point shooting from 32.4% to 39% this season. They stay at home where they make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 121.7 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto has received a short-term bump after trading OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley last Saturday. Quickley has thrived as the team’s point guard taking over for Gary Trent in the starting lineup. But Barrett continues to struggle with his shooting. They are both good defenders — but this could be a matchup where they miss Anunoby’s outstanding defense in the frontcourt against Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes. Head coach Darko Rajakovic is using more small lineups since the trade but there may be some growing pains on the horizon since Toronto was playing big for the last year and a half. The Raptors did play their best game on the defensive end of the court on Wednesday by holding the Grizzlies to just 42.6% shooting — but while that game finished just Under the 227.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Toronto has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contests -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. They stay on the road where they have just a 5-11 record while allowing their home hosts to make 49.1% of their shots resulting in 117.6 PPG. The Raptors have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Trading away Anunoby may be the first step to improving this Raptors roster that seemed to be spinning their wheels — but I think the matchup improves for the Kings since they can struggle with their rim protection on defense. Toronto allows their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 48% or higher. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (580) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (579). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-24 |
Nuggets v. Warriors +4.5 |
|
130-127 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). THE SITUATION: Golden State (16-17) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 121-115 victory against Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver (24-11) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 111-93 win against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has invested more playing time into the younger players on the roster given the erratic play of some of the veterans along with the suspension of Draymond Green — and players like Jonathan Kuminga are taking advantage of the opportunity. Golden State has won six of their last nine games. The Warriors will be rested for this game with it being just their fourth game since Christmas Day — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when not playing for more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 64 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home when an underdog of up to six points. And in their last 7 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Golden State has covered the point spread 6 times. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in five days. While they have a 14-3 record at home after completing a four-game home stand, they go back on the road where they are just 10-8 with an average winning margin of +0.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games at home. Golden State is outrebounding their opponents by +3.8 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have won five straight games against the Warriors after their 120-114 win at home as a 7-point favorite against them on Christmas Day. Golden State has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent including covering the point spread six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (556) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-24 |
Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State -8.5 |
|
83-109 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (780) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (779). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (4-9) has lost two games in a row after their 91-90 loss at Georgia State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia Southern (1-12) ended their 12-game losing streak to start the season with an 88-67 victory at home against Southern Mississippi as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games are losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. They have all covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home to play for just the fourth time this season. They have a 2-1 record on their home — but they have outscored those three guests by +9.7 Points-Per-Game. The Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Georgia Southern nailed 15 of their 29 shots (51.7%) from behind the arc for en route to posting a 57.6% shooting percentage in the game which was their best offensive effort of the season. And they played their best game on the other end of the court in their last four games by holding the Golden Eagles to 38.7% shooting. The Eagles live by the three and die by the three — they rank 12th in the nation by taking 47.8% of their shots from 3-point range but they only make 34.4% of these shots ranking 126th in the country which explains their terrible record. Facing Arkansas State presents a bad matchup for them since the Red Wolves rank 40th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. Georgia Southern ranks 299th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are 304th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. And while their win against Southern Mississippi finished Over the 143-point Total in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a game that finished Over the Total. They go back on the road where they are 0-9 this season while getting outscored by -16.2 PPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles do not match up well with the Red Wolves due to their defensive rebounding as well. Georgia Southern ranks 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.9% of their missed shots — and Arkansas State ranks 69th in the nation by rebounding 33.1% of their missed shots. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (780) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-24 |
Clippers -4 v. Suns |
|
131-122 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (20-12) has won three games in a row as well as 12 of their last 14 games after their 121-104 victory against Miami as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix (18-15) has won four games in a row after their 109-88 win against Portland as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is clicking now with James Harden in the mix — head coach Ty Lue has found the right pace of play to take advantage of the talent and Harden has developed chemistry and comfort with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard missed four games in a row recently but he is back in the mix after he scored 24 points against the Heat on Monday. The Clippers nailed 58.7% of their shots in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games at home. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Phoenix has Bradley Beal back on the court after he has dealt with back issues — not now they will be without Kevin Durant who is nursing a hamstring injury. The Suns held the Trail Blazers to 45.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will have revenge on their mind in their first opportunity to play the Suns after losing to them in the playoffs last April in five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (547) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-24 |
Pelicans v. Wolves -5.5 |
|
117-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (24-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 112-106 upset loss at New York as a 1-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (20-14) has won three games in a row after their 112-85 victory against Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota made only 47.3% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. Don’t blame Anthony Edwards who scored 35 points in the losing effort — he is on a heater by scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. Minnesota has not lost back-to-back games all season — and they have a net point differential of +10.7 Points-Per-Game following a loss this season. The T-Wolves lead the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.2 — and they rank fifth in net Adjusted Efficiency margin this year. They have played a winning team in eight of their last ten games — and they have a 7-3 record in those ten games. Minnesota has a 14-1 record at home with a net point differential of +11.0 PPGG. They rank third at home in net Adjusted Efficiency margin. They are making 49.0 of their shots at home resulting in 113.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 41.4% shooting resulting in just 102.0 PPG on their home court. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has played only one opponent with a winning record in their last ten games. The Pelicans held the Nets to just 35.7% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. And while they have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread as the favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning and covering the point spread in two more games in a row. Now after completing their five-game home stand, they go back on the road — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after winning three games in a row at home. They remain without Trey Murphy who is dealing with a knee injury — and his absence is significant since his outside shooting opens things up inside to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. New Orleans has a +15.6 net Adjusted Efficiency margin when Murphy is on the court — and that mark plummets to just +0.9 when he is off the court.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has a 2-1 record against New Orleans this season — but they are looking to avenge a 121-107 loss on the road to the Pelicans as a 4-point favorite on December 11th. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points including six of those last seven circumstances. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Minnesota Timberwolves (540) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-24 |
Bulls v. 76ers -9.5 |
|
97-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 105-92 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (15-19) has won five of their last seven contests with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has been without Joel Embiid with an injury since Christmas Day — but he is expected to return to the court for this rematch tonight. As it is, the 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They only made 39.1% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for the worst shooting for them all season. Philly has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.7 Points-Per-Game by scoring 123.6 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite. Chicago made 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And by holding the Sixers to 39.1% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive game in their last 22 contests. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games on the road after a double-digit victory. Chicago has only scored 209 combined points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. And while they have played six straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Bulls have been playing better since Zach LaVine suffered his foot injury in late November which suggests his time with the team is short. But now they are dealing with a groin injury to Nikola Vucevic which leaves them thin in their frontcourt when attempting to defend Embiid.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 20* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (518) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-23 |
Suns v. Rockets +3.5 |
|
129-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). THE SITUATION: Houston (15-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 123-117 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 3-point favorite on December 26th. Phoenix (14-15) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests with their 128-114 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston played their worst game of the season last night by allowing the Pacers to nail 52.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage against them all year. The Rockets are ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they are holding their guests to just 42.3% shooting resulting in only 101.8 Points-Per-Game when they are playing at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games at home this season. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Suns have not covered the point spread in six straight contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss a home. Now the Suns go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 220s. The plan was for the big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to form a super team that would overcome the lack of depth — a by-product of their exorbitant contracts. Beal has played in only three games this season -- and now Durant is complaining again because, like Russell Wilson, it’s never, ever his fault.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 home games this season as an underdog. 8* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Rockets (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-23 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 |
Top |
116-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-104 upset loss to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (9-19) has won three games in a row after their 125-119 win at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 46.3% of their shots against the Rockets on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They should shoot better tonight — the return of Trey Murphy from injury gives the team the outside shooting threat it craved to open up space inside for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to drive to the hole. The Pelicans are still making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 119.6 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after a loss at home in their previous contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis has won all three of their games since Ja Morant completed his 25-game suspension. They nailed 51.5% of their shots against the Hawks on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Grizzlies have not been reliable not reliable on the road relative to point spread expectations with Morant on the court. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games as an underdog -- and that includes them finishing last season on a 5-18 ATS run with Morant as an underdog before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and 23 of those games go back to last season with Morant given their 4-6 ATS mark as a road dog this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points after covering the point spread once in their four road games getting up to six points this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against Southwest Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at home to Memphis as an 8-point underdog on December 19th in Morant’s season debut — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-23 |
Nevada -6 v. Georgia Tech |
Top |
72-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Nevada (11-1) reached the title game of this holiday tournament with their 88-75 upset win against TCU as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Georgia Tech (8-3) joined them in this title game with a 73-68 upset victory against Hawai’i on their home court as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They did allow the Horned Frogs to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. TCU was the pre-tournament favorite to win this event. Nevada ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 12th in the nation by turning the ball over in 13.6% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank seventh in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing with only one day or less of rest. Georgia Tech has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament after beating Penn State and UMass before their victory against the Rainbow Warriors on Friday. For the record, none of those three teams are ranked in the top 100 teams in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Yellow Jackets do have nice wins against Duke and Mississippi State this season — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents making at least 45% of their shots and holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Wolf Pack are nailing 47.3% of their shots while holding their opponents to 39.0% shooting. First-year head coach Damon Stoudemire is doing a nice job with this team. They have played much better since he started playing Nathan George. After not even playing in the first few games, the freshman is now the team’s starting point guard. But with freshman Baye Ndongu also in the starting lineup, this is a young team that may be particularly susceptible to a letdown. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a victory by six points or less in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five o their last six games. The Yellow Jackets thrive by crashing the glass — they rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 37.6% of their missed shots. But getting second chance opportunities will be difficult against Nevada who hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.0% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Georgia Tech’s problem is they lack a Plan B to generate points. They are making only 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 316th in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 352nd in the nation (as if forcing Wolf Pack turnovers was a viable strategy anyway).
FINAL TAKE: Nevada has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-23 |
Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 |
|
122-117 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-14) has lost four games in a row after their 121-102 loss to New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (19-10) has won two straight games and five of their last six after a 113-104 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on the Nets in their cross-town rivalry game — but we got caught with some buzzard’s luck as they made only 36.6% of their shots in what was the worst offensive effort of the season. Brooklyn should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to an Atlantic Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss at home. The Nets should shoot closer to their 46.5% field goal percentage tonight. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver opened the season on fire with a 9-2 record — but they have since posted a pedestrian 10-8 record. They have won their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. The championship hangover seems to have impacted this group as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, the Nuggets have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road where they have just an 8-8 record as opposed to their 11-2 record at home at the Bell Center. They are only outscoring their home hosts by +0.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -4.8 fewer Points-Per-Game on the road with their 47.6% shooting percentage -1.4% below their season average. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn will be looking to avenge a 124-101 loss in Denver as a 9.5-point favorite on December 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent including covering the point spread in five of those last six circumstances. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (520) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 |
|
120-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). THE SITUATION: Dallas (16-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 130-104 loss at Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (16-10) has won eight straight games after their 151-127 victory at Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas may have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Nuggets to make 56.3% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort for the new campaign. They also only made 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Los Angeles nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. The Clippers have made at least 50.6% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making 47% or more of their shots in five or more games in a row. Paul George has been ruled out tonight with an illness. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in four straight games while laying the points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in six of their last seven contests with James Harden finding his role with his new team after getting traded from Philadelphia — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (548) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Knicks v. Nets +1.5 |
Top |
121-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-13) has lost three straight games after their 125-108 upset loss at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (15-11) has won two of their last three contests after their 114-109 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks come off an emotional victory against the Lakers which was a personal revenge spot for Julius Randle facing his previous team. They held Los Angeles to just 42.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. The team endured challenging traveling circumstances after staying over in Los Angeles Monday night before traveling cross country yesterday. Now they finish their five-game road stand against their cross-town rivals. Consistency has not been a strength of this team that has up-and-down players like R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Randle. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games after a victory by six points or less. New York is playing without Mitchell Robinson who is out another two months with an ankle injury. Not only is Robinson the lynchpin of the Knicks' defense as their primary rim protector, but he also leads the NBA by pulling down 5.3 offensive rebounds per game. New York is thin at center with backup Jericho Sims now also out with an ankle injury. The Knicks are getting outscored by -0.7 net Points-Per-Game while allowing their home hosts to make 48.5% of their missed shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn allowed the Jazz to make 49.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Nets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.8 PPG. The Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court at the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has a +1.1 Adjusted Net Rating this season despite one of the more difficult opening schedules in the league — and they post a +7.7 Adjusted Net Rating when playing at home. After Cam Thomas missed time due to an injury, he has returned to action and leads the team by scoring 24 PPG. Head coach Jacque Vaughn encourages his team to bomb away from 3 — the Nets rank fifth in the NBA by getting 37.9% of their points from behind the arc and they are second in the league by nailing 38.7% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who are making 36% or more of their 3-pointers. And while New York allows their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Underdog of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Baylor +3.5 v. Duke |
|
70-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666) in the Garden Classic. THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-1) looks to rebound from their 88-64 upset loss to Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (7-3) returns to the court for the first time since their 89-68 win against Hofstra as a 15.5-point favorite last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The word came out at 6 PM ET that the Blue Devils will not have the services of their point guard Tyrese Proctor for the third straight game as he recovers from a leg injury that has kept him out of their previous two games. In this showdown with an outstanding Baylor team, Duke will miss his 10.3 Points-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is the team’s best on-the-ball defender. After an upset loss at Georgia Tech early in the month, the Blue Devils followed up their 80-56 victory against Charlotte with their win against the Pride last week. But Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games under head coach Jon Scheyer after winning their two previous games by double-digits. The Blue Devils nailed 55.0% of their shots against Hofstra which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. Duke’s defense was shaky in that game last week as they allowed the Pride to make 50% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in a game where they were the favorite. Duke has been the favorite in all of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 25 games under Scheyer after being the point spread favorite in their previous four or more games. We suspected that Baylor was due for a flat performance against the Spartans on Saturday that Michigan State was desperate to win — and the Bears dug a big hole for themselves by trailing at halftime by a 45-17 score. They allowed Sparty to make 63.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 60% or more of their shots. They shot 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last contest. Additionally, Baylor has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bears lead the nation by making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they could exploit a Duke team that ranks 225th in the nation by allowing their opponents to take 38.6% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range. Baylor takes 46% of their shots at the rim — and they rank 20th in the nation in free throw rate. They also rank eighth in the nation by pulling down 38.5% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 10* CBB Baylor-Duke ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (665) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-23 |
Baylor v. Michigan State +3.5 |
|
64-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests with their 77-70 upset loss at Nebraska as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 78-60 victory against Seton Hall as an 11-point favorite back on December 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State opened the season ranked fourth in the nation in the AP poll — but a difficult early schedule, some bad luck, and poor shooting has contributed to an underwhelming 4-5 start. The Spartans opened the season with an overtime loss at home to a James Madison team that remains unbeaten. They then lost to highly-rated Duke and Arizona. They hosted a good Wisconsin team in their Big Ten opener in a loss — and they then lost at Nebraska last weekend in their first true road game of the season by playing their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Cornhuskers to make 50.0% of their shots. The Spartans still rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The silver lining from that loss to Nebraska was that they made 8 of 17 (47.1%) of their shots from behind the arc. Sparty has been ice cold from deep this season as they rank 301st in the nation by making only 29.5% of their shots from 3-point range. Despite this slow start, Michigan State still ranks 33rd in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. The Spartans also rank 23rd in the country in another power ranking system that does not consider preseason rankings and assumptions — so despite their five losses, the underlying in-season metrics place them still that high. Playing ninety minutes away in Detroit against an undefeated Baylor team gives head coach Tom Izzo a great opportunity to get his team going. As it is, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss against a Big Ten rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Baylor made 50.9% of their shots in their victory against Seton Hall almost two weeks ago. The Bears have made at least 51.4% of their shots in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after making 50% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. Baylor leads the nation by making 46.1% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may have to knock off some rust after the long break between games. The analytics also suggest they have overachieved their 3-point shooting expectations by at least 10%. The Bears have played two straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. And while Baylor has enjoyed halftime leads of 10, 26, and 25 points in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying halftime leads of at least five points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams not making more than 30% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has played Auburn and Florida — but their strength of schedule still ranks only 255th in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. On the other hand, Sparty’s strength of schedule ranks the 45th most difficult entering the day.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams making at least 37% of their shots from 3-point range. And while the Bears are making 52.0% of their shots overall, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of the last 14 games against teams making 48% or more of their shots from the field. 20* CBB Baylor-Michigan State Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (626) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-23 |
Weber State v. Nevada -9 |
|
55-72 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-1) had their seven-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 72-53 upset loss against Drake on a neutral court in Henderson, Las Vegas, on Saturday. Weber State (5-3) has won two of their last three games after their 78-50 victory against Cal-Poly SLO as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada only made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where 125 or fewer combined points were scored. Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. They return home where they are 6-0 on their home court while making 47.7% of their shots which is generating 83.8 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +20.5 net PPG — and they are holding their visitors to 37.3% shooting. Nevada has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Weber State raced out to a 52-22 lead against the Mustangs on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a halftime lead by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a game where they had a 20-point or better halftime lead. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are led by 6’6 swingman Dillon Jones who bypassed the NBA last spring to return to the team. But he does not get enough support from his supporting cast in generating points. Weber State ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal (eFG) percentage — and their 30.8% shooting clip from behind the arc and their 44.0% mark with 2-pointers rank 258th and 327th in the nation. Nevada ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 38th with an opponent’s eFG of 46.3%. The Wolf Pack holds their opponents to 39.5% shooting — and Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower. On the road, the Wildcats are only making 38.3% of their shots which is resulting in only 61.2 PPG. And while they are holding their opponents to 42.1% shooting, that shooting percentage rises to 46.9% when playing on the road. Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Nevada is outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (644) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-23 |
Pacers v. Bucks -6.5 |
|
126-140 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (16-7) has won three of their last four games after their 133-129 victory in overtime against Chicago as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Indiana (13-9) has won four of their last five games after their 131-123 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The encouraging aspect of that victory was they played one of their better games on defense by holding the Bulls to just 41.2% shooting. Defense has been the biggest issue that first-year head coach Adrian Griffin needs to focus on moving forward. The Pacers nailed 56.5% of their shots against the Pistons which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing a Central Division rival in their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against a division rival.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be motivated to avenge their 128-119 upset loss against the Pacers as a 5-point favorite on December 7th in the In-Season Tournament Semifinals in Las Vegas which followed up their 126-124 upset loss in Indiana in their previous meeting this season on November 9th. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-23 |
Hofstra +16 v. Duke |
|
68-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). THE SITUATION: Hofstra (6-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 71-68 upset loss at St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (6-3) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 80-56 victory at home against Charlotte as a 16-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PRIDE PLUS THE POINTS: Hofstra allowed the Billikens to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They only made 28% of their shots from behind the arc as well despite them ranking 41st in the nation with a 37.9% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Pride can redeem themselves from that loss by this opportunity to make a statement against the Blue Devils. Hofstra is a dangerous team that ranks 20th in the nation in returning Division I experience from a group that finished 16-2 in the Colonial Athletic Association last year. One of the Bracketology metrics projects the Pride as a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament — and those numbers also currently assign the Blue Devils as only a seven-seed . Head coach Speedy Claxton deploys a Slow Killer style of play designed to upset teams like Duke. Hofstra plays at a slow pace — they average 67.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Pride lives (and dies) by the 3-point shot — they rank 12th in the nation by accruing 40% of their points from behind the arc. The Blue Devils are vulnerable to teams that rely on 3-point shooting as they allow their opponents to take 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Hofstra will also take full advantage of their opportunities from the charity stripe as they rank third in the nation by making 81.0% of their free throws. They are led by one of the best mid-major players in the nation with Tyler Thomas who is scoring 24 PPG. Duke, as always, was considered a major player to win the national championship after they followed up their narrow loss at home to Arizona (the number one ranked team in the nation) with a convincing victory against Michigan State. But the shine has gone for this Blue Devils team after losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech along with the Spartans looking shaky with a 4-5 record. While Duke returned plenty of talent that lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, they miss Derrick Lively II who provided them a rim protector in his freshman season before leaving for the NBA. The Blue Devils allow their opponents to make 49.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 147th in the nation. Duke did play their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding the 49ers to 40.4% shooting — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, this is Duke’s second game this month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. It is somewhat ominous to fade the Blue Devils when playing at home at Cameron Indoor Arena — but while they rank 17th in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency in one of the power ranking metric systems I follow, they do fall to 30th when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Hofstra ranks 93rd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency — but they do rise to 80th when playing away from home according to those metrics. The Pride have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. Hofstra has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog. 10* CBB Hofstra-Duke ESPN2 Special with the Hofstra Pride (607) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-23 |
Northern Illinois +1.5 v. Monmouth |
|
71-74 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (5-3) has lost two games in a row after their 90-67 loss to Indiana State as a 7-point underdog on Tuesday. Monmouth (4-4) returns to the court after losing their second straight game in a 91-87 loss at Cornell as a 12.5-point underdog on November 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINT(S): Northern Illinois only made 39.1% of their shots against the Sycamores in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. But the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up loss at home in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after a double-digit loss at home. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.4% of their shots in what was the second-worst defensive effort of their season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. The Huskies are battle-tested already with losses to Marquette, Northwestern (who upset Purdue), and the Sycamores who all rank in the top-60 according Ken Pomeroy’s advanced analytics. They also beat an Appalachian State team that upset Auburn. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Monmouth nailed 53.3% of their shots against the Big Red which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they may be rusty in their return to the court with a week and a half between games. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after losing two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Monmouth has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a pick ‘em or a favorite of up to six points. And in their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 150s, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread 17 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-23 |
Purdue v. Alabama +6.5 |
|
92-86 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). THE SITUATION: Alabama (6-2) enters this game coming off an 89-65 win against Arkansas State as a 25-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (8-1) rebounded from their loss at Northwestern with an 87-68 victory against Iowa as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral favorite at the Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, Ontario.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think the market is giving enough respect to this Alabama team after they got upset by Ohio State and Clemson earlier this season. Head coach Nate Oaks is still working out some chemistry issues with two transfers coming in, Aaron Estrada from Hofstra and Grant Nelson from North Dakota State, adjusting to his analytics-driven 3-pointer or shoot-at-the-rim tendencies. The Crimson Tide have also struggled with their defense — but they should get better as the season moves on. This is a big opportunity to make a statement against one of the top teams in the country. Alabama has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Crimson Tide ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 10th in the nation by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are taking 3s in 42.8% of their shots from the field, the 64th most aggressive rate from 3-point land. After making 11 shots from distance in their loss to Clemson, they nailed 13 shots from 3-point range against the Red Wolves — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. Many consider Purdue the best team in the country after beating Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette in the Maui Invitational — but they demonstrated their vulnerabilities in their loss at Northwestern last week. While they did follow that up with a 19-point win against the Hawkeyes, Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contest. Head coach Matt Painter has his team playing at a faster pace this season after his team was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA Tournament last March. After playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, Purdue is shooting quicker this season — and their adjusted possessions per game of 70.0 ranks 129th in the nation. While this adjustment should help them avoid getting upset by potential Cinderellas in the Big Dance, the Boilermakers are still vulnerable to teams like Alabama that maximize efficiency on offense. Purdue is making 39.7% of their 3-pointers — but they only take 35.9% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 216th in the nation. The Total set is set in the 160s with the Boilermakers playing at the faster pace — and this plays into the Crimson Tide’s style of play as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 160s.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Purdue-Alabama Fox-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-23 |
Rockets v. Nuggets -8 |
|
114-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-8) has lost two games in a row after their 111-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Houston (9-9) snapped their three-game losing streak with the 110-101 upset win against Oklahoma City as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 41.8% of their shots against the Clippers which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Jamal Murray did return to the court in that game and scored 23 points in a losing effort. After missing ten games early in the season, Murray returned in the Nuggets’ game against the Rockets on November 29th before wrenching his ankle which kept him out another two contests. Denver has an 8-2 record when Murray plays this season. After completing their three-game road trip, the Nuggets return home where they have been dominant with a 9-0 record with a +11.0 net point differential. Denver’s role players are more effective when playing at home — and the Nuggets offensive attack is nearly unstoppable when playing at the Bell Center. They are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which is generating 121.8 Points-Per-Game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against teams from the Southwest Division. Houston held the Thunder to joust 42.5% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 road games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Houston may be the most improved team in the league this season - -and they have been particularly tough to beat at home where they have a 9-1 record. They rank second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 102.2 when playing on their home court. But things change dramatically when they go on the road where they are the only winless team left this season. The Rockets are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG — and they plummet to 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 118.8. Jalen Green has been much better at home as well where he is making 45.2% of his shots and 37.1% of his shots from behind the arc — but he is shooting just 38.4% when on the road with a 31.9% mark from 3-point range. Houston has a 9-8 record on the road with a -9.0 net point differential. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has revenge on their mind after losing in Denver against the Nuggets by a 134-124 score on November 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-23 |
Kings -1.5 v. Suns |
|
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (11-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 127-117 upset loss to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament on Monday. Phoenix (12-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 1.5-point underdog in the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Kings only made 44.7% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — and they allowed New Orleans to shoot 54.0% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a loss at home. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have allowed their last four opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after allowing four straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix has been without Bradley Beal who has only played three games this season — and they will also be without Kevin Durant and Grayson Allen tonight as they deal with nagging injuries. The Suns played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday as they held the Lakers to just 37.3% shooting — and their 49.3% shooting percentage was the best mark for them in their last five contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in five days. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (529) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-23 |
Pelicans +2.5 v. Lakers |
|
89-133 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in the Semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-10) has won three of their last four games after their 127-117 upset victory at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Monday in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. Los Angeles (13-9) has won three of their last four games after their 106-103 victory at home against Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday in their In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals contest. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans is better than their record given some injuries they sustained early on. C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado have missed time — but perhaps it was the absence of Trey Murphy that was the biggest blow to this team since his outshooting is critical to this team. With Murphy back on the court, opposing teams have to account for his outside shooting — and that opens up space for Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in the paint. Ingram scored 30 points against the Kings on Monday and Williamson has been playing as well as he did in his outstanding second season in the league before injuries began to hold him back. The Pelicans have a remarkable +31.7 Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin in their 101 possessions with Murphy healthy and on the court this season. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They have made 49.4% or more of their shots in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight contests. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after beating a Pacific Division in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a straight-up win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a victory by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games in a row — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. The Lakers have been feasting against the lesser teams in the league — they have only one victory against a top-ten team in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin -- and their strength of schedule rates as the 11th easiest in the league. There is a notion that the Lakers will have a “home court advantage” with this game being played in Las Vegas which is “just” a four-hour drive on I-15 from Los Angeles. While I do think the Lakers will enjoy the crowd edge tonight, I find home advantages coming mostly from familiarity with the court (or field) and the convenience of being at home — and while there are times when the cheering crowd can help a team (or impact the opponent), I doubt the Vegas crowd will achieve that tonight. Jeff Sherman at the SportsBook at Westgate and the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas only assigned a half point for the Lakers for a crowd edge tonight in response to the market.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (503) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-23 |
Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls |
|
100-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (6-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 123-117 loss to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (7-14) has won two games in a row after their 124-118 win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball for a few weeks given a right ankle injury he suffered last week. While Charlotte needs their point forward back to have any serious designs on making the Play-In Tournament, head coach Steve Clifford has some viable options to replace his production in the short term. Terry Rozier has missed some time with injuries — but he is back and can run the offense in Ball’s absence. Rozier scored 37 points in a win against Brooklyn last Thursday after the Ball injury. He has scored 23.3 Points-Per-Game in his last four games. The Ball injury also allows for rookie Brandon Miller to get more playing time — he has been solid so far this season and looks much better than Scoot Henderson who they bypassed with the second pick in the NBA draft. The Hornets also have Miles Bridges back after he completed his 30-game suspension for his domestic violence issues — he has scored 20.5 PPG and added 7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game since his return. Charlotte was competitive against a red-hot Timberwolves team without Ball on Saturday as they held a four-point lead with under five minutes to go before blowing that game. The key for this team in the short term is to simply play better on defense. They allowed Minnesota to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games and second-worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. The Hornets will benefit from the extra days off — look for them to push the pace against a Bulls team that has the sixth-oldest roster in the league (and they play at the slowest pace in the NBA). Charlotte has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Chicago has pulled off two straight upset victories with a win against Milwaukee with their triumph against the Pelicans on Saturday. The Bulls nailed 54.5% of tighter shots which was the best shooting effort of the season for them. They are playing with Zach LaVine who is dealing with a foot injury — and that may have opened up the offense with more of their field goals coming from passes rather than isolation. Their hot shooting overcame a 35-15 deficit in free throw attempts to New Orleans — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outshot at the free throw line by 20 or more shots at the charity stripe. Chicago has been wildly inconsistent this season with rumors abound that management is primed to break up the core of this team. Their victory against the Pelicans was the first time all season has won two games in a row. The Bulls' play on defense has been underwhelming as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG. Chicago has been unreliable as a favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored while failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are scoring only 107.7 PPG — and the Hornets have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 42 games against teams who do not score more than 108 PPG. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (575) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-23 |
Suns +1.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
103-106 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-23 |
Indiana v. Michigan -6.5 |
|
78-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-4) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 86-83 loss in overtime at Oregon as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Indiana (6-1) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 65-53 win at home against Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was expected to take a step back this season after losing Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin to the first round of the NBA draft along with Hunter Dickinson transferring to Kansas. But despite all that talent, the chemistry of that team was not great. The Wolverines missed going to the NCAA Tournament with an 18-16 final record — their season was defined by a rough 4-13 record in games decided by six points or less. Head coach Juwan Howard brought in several impact transfers to help restructure the identity of his team. Olivier Nkamhoua comes in from Tennessee to develop his post-up play from Howard after being a contributor for the Volunteers for four years. He scored 27 points against Duke in the NCAA Tournament last season — and his defense is needed for this team. Nimari Burnett is a former McDonald’s All-American with immense talent who has been slowed by injuries while playing at Texas Tech and then Alabama. Dug McDaniel has stepped in as a big-time scorer at point guard for this team in his sophomore season after his trial-by-fire last season. He scored 30 points in the loss to the Ducks — that was a heartbreaker with Oregon nailing a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to win that game. Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Furthermore, while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. This is the Wolverines’ second game since November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They return home for the first time since getting upset by Fresno State in their first loss of the season — but they are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which has resulted in 92.3 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played a difficult schedule with three of their losses against Memphis, Texas Tech, and Oregon being against teams that rank in the top-52 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Pomeroy’s metrics rank the Wolverines schedule as the 27th most difficult in the nation. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, rank just 230th in the nation according to Pomeroy in their non-conference schedule. Indiana held the Terrapins to just 35.7% shooting which was tied for the lowest opponent field goal percentage so far this season. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering two or more games in a row as the favorite. Indiana lost four of their top five players from last year’s team that reached the Round of 32 in the Big Dance — and head coach Mike Woodson leaned on the transfer portal as well to replenish his roster. By adding 7’0 Kel-El Ware from Oregon, Indiana measures as the fifth tallest team in the nation — but the Wolverines rank 67th in size according to that metric. Despite their big frontline, the Hoosiers are only pulling down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 246th in the nation. Defensive rebounding has been a problem for Michigan as they rank 243rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.7% of their missed shots. Defending the perimeter has also been a problem for the Wolverines with their opponents making 39.4 of their 3-pointers, the 343rd worst mark in the nation. But Indiana ranks 350th in the nation by making only 25.0% of their 3-pointers. And while the Hoosiers rank fourth in the nation in getting to the free throw line, the Wolverines rank 39th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. This is not a good matchup for the Hoosiers.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana is playing their first true road game of the season tonight after playing three games on neutral courts. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. Michigan has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite against Big Ten opponents. 10* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-23 |
Lakers v. Thunder -5 |
|
110-133 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-6) has lost two games in a row after their 106-103 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Los Angeles (11-8) has won two of their last three games after their 133-107 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City only made 41.1% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 contests and tied for the worst field goal percentage for the season. They also got outrebounded by a 51-36 margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They have still covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games. Oklahoma City will likely be without Josh Giddey tonight given the police investigation that he was involved with a minor — but the Lakers will have several absences as well. Los Angeles is without Rui Hachimura, Jarred Valentine, and Gabe Vincent are out with injuries while Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish are questionable. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win on the road. And in their last 18 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and the Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (516) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-23 |
Suns v. Raptors +4.5 |
|
105-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost two games in a row after their 115-103 loss at Brooklyn as a 1-point underdog last night. Phoenix (11-6) has won seven games in a row after their 116-113 upset win at New York against the Knicks as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 38.6% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.8. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 38.0% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 18.9 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix’s upset win against the Knicks cashed the over for bettors who had tickets at 218.5 — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games on the road after playing a game that went Over the Total. The team is adjusting to their first-year head coach Frank Vogel — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when on a seven-game or more winning streak. Phoenix comes into this game at less than full strength with Bradley Beal still out for this team with a back injury. Kevin Durant is questionable with a foot injury that has kept him out the last two games — and Grayson Allen is questionable with an illness. The Suns have a big game on deck two days from now against Denver so they may be looking ahead as well.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors are shooting 46.4% from the field this season — and Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams making 46% or more of their shots from the field. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (562) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-23 |
Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina |
|
92-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss to Kansas as a 1.5-point underdog in the Maui Invitational last Wednesday. North Carolina (5-1) rebounded from their overtime loss to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis with an 87-72 win against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite in that tournament on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee faced a gauntlet in the Maui Invitational with a victory against Syracuse before losing to Purdue and then the Jayhawks — two teams that rank in the top-eight teams in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Pomeroy ranks their schedule as the 15th most difficult in the nation so far this season. They should play better tonight even against a very good Tar Heels team. Their 31.0% shooting percentage against Kansas was their worst shooting effort of the season. And while the Jayhawks’ 51.9% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s shooting percentage against them this season, they still rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. The Volunteers only made 33.3% of their shot against the Boilermakers — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to make at least 37% of their shots in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 55 of their last 88 games after losing two games in a row. And while they did not cover the point spread in those final two games in Maui, Tennessee has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. North Carolina nailed 49.1% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Tar Heels have scored at least 81 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while this is their third game since last Thursday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing for at least the third time in the last seven days. This is not a great matchup for this North Carolina team that may be without starter Cormac Ryan who missed the Arkansas game with an ankle injury. The Volunteers launch 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Tar Heels rank 312th in allowing open 3s. North Carolina is making 36.9% of their shots from 3-point range — but now they face a Tennessee team that ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents making only 26.7% of their 3-pointers. The Tar Heels only make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 157th in the nation. And while North Carolina plays at a fast pace and averages 62 shots per game, the Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Pomeroy ranks North Carolina’s schedule as the 127th most difficult so far this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And while Tennessee is outscoring their opponents by +12.2 net Points-Per-Game, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 10* CBB Tennessee-North Carolina ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-23 |
Raptors +1.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-23 |
Heat v. Knicks -5 |
Top |
98-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.
FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-23 |
Boise State +2.5 v. Virginia Tech |
|
75-82 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776) in the ESPN Events Invitational. THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 85-68 loss at Clemson as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Virginia Tech (3-1) has won two games in a row with their 98-76 victory against Wofford as an 18-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Field House in Kissimmee, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an “In Leon Rice, I Trust” situation after Boise State lost their first game of the season. The head coach has led his team to the NCAA Tournament in two straight seasons — and he has three starters back from that group. Losing point guard Marcus Shaver to graduation is a big loss — but Rice has several players auditioning to take on those responsibilities. Rice also hit the transfer portal by bringing in Cam Martin from Kansas and O’Mar Stanley from St. John’s to offer this team great depth. They got burned on the road at Clemson because the Tigers nailed 8 of their 15 shots from 3-point range en route to their 50.8% shooting clip. Rice has overseen a top-30 defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the previous two seasons — and opponents made only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc last year so their perimeter defense should tighten up tonight. Boise State did limit a solid San Francisco team to just 4 of 19 shooting (21.0%) from behind the arc earlier this month so the Clemson game may have simply been an aberration in this young season. The Dons rank 79th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Broncos are usually very tough when defending their defensive glass — they have ranked 17th and 11th in the nation in the previous two seasons in Defensive Rebounding Rate. So far this season, Boise State is allowing their opponents to pull down 31.7% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation after the Tigers pulled down 41.9% of their missed shots. The Broncos got outrebounded by a 40-25 margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Virginia Tech has benefited from an easy schedule with their victory against Wofford being the best line on their resume so far this season — the Terriers rank 256th in the nation according to Pomeroy. Their most challenging opponent was South Carolina who they lost to on a neutral court by two points. This is the Hokies second game in the last eight days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I have two overriding concerns about this team. First, while the strength of this team is their backcourt, the X-factor for this team was the development of Rodney Rice who surprised the program with his decision to transfer earlier this month. Virginia Tech still has a nice backcourt led by Sean Padulla and Hunter Cattoor — but it was their priced top recruit in 2022 in Rice who had the potential to be a go-to scorer with his upside in athleticism. Secondly, the Hokies underachieved last season by going 8-12 in the ACC primarily because of the substandard play of their defense — they ranked 139th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While head coach Mike Young knows that the play of his defense must improve, they only rank 122nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency despite a strength of schedule that Pomeroy ranks as the 347th most difficult. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after winning two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Tournament play. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Boise State-Virginia Tech ESPNU Special with the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-23 |
Kings -1.5 v. Pelicans |
|
112-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-5) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 129-93 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans (7-7) has won three of their last four games after that contest.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Sacramento might have played their worst game of the season on Monday. They allowed the Pelicans to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Their 37.9% shooting was their worst field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they got outrebounded by a 55-36 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards. Sacramento has a 6-2 record with De’Aaron Fox healthy — he missed five games due to injury. They have an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +3.1 when he is on the court — and their Adjusted Net Efficiency plummets to -3.9 without him. The Kings stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher including four of those five circumstances this season. New Orleans played their best game of the young season in their 36-point victory on Monday. Their 54.3% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort of the season — and the Kings’ 37.9% shooting clip was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Pelicans all year. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit upset win as a home underdog. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. And while New Orleans has made at least 51.1% of their shots in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five or more games in a row. The Pelicans remained undermanned with C.J. McCollum out with a collapsed lung and Trey Murphy out with a knee injury. Larry Nance, Jr. is questionable with a rib injury. The Kings may be without Keegan Murray who is questionable with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 road games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Sacramento Kings (539) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-23 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 |
|
116-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (11-3) was on a six-game winning streak before their 121-118 upset loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (10-4) has won five games in a row with their 142-129 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jayson Tatum has been listed as questionable all day dealing with a non-COVID illness — but the team has announced he is available to play tonight and he looked good in the video I saw of him taking 3-pointers in the shoot around early this evening. Boston only made 43.3% of their shots on Monday in what was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning four of their last five games. This Boson team leads the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin of +10.8. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season by nailing 58.5% of their shots on Monday. While the Bucks have made at least 51.8% of their shots in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four or more games in a row. The Bucks have scored at least 128 points in four straight contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 125 or more points in four straight contests. The problem for this team is on the other end of the court where they rank 22nd in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 116.2 — and they will be without Jae Crowder who is one of their better defensive players tonight due to an abdominal injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as the dog. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Kansas v. Marquette +4.5 |
|
59-73 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657) in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: Marquette (4-0) advanced in this tournament with their 71-69 victory against UCLA as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. Kansas (4-0) had the easiest opening-round draw as they beat the host Chaminade team in an 83-56 victory yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the SimpliFi Arena at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Marquette will enter this game with confidence after beating two very good teams in a row in Illinois and then the Bruins yesterday. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory by three points or less. Head coach Shaka Smart’s teams have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after a win by three points or less. Marquette returns almost every contributor except big man Olivier-Maxence Prosper from last year’s group that won both the Big East regular season title and the Big East tournament — that team finished tenth in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s final rankings using his metrics. This is an experienced and tough team led by perhaps the best point guard in the nation by senior Tyler Kolek. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and Smart’s teams have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games when playing for the second time in three days. Marquette has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 road games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Kansas has beaten Kentucky already this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Jayhawks have assisted on at least 22 made field goals in all four of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting 19 or more team assists in their last contest. They have held all four of their opponents to 35.1% or lower shooting from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding three straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding four straight opponents to 40% or lower shooting. Kansas has been impressive with Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson playing great for his new team — but depth is an issue for this team which will now be tested playing without a day of rest. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas lost to the same Fighting Illini team that Marquette beat by seven points — and while that was an exhibition game, head coach Bill Self did play his starters in that nationally televised game. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s — and the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Cavs v. 76ers -7.5 |
|
122-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has won two games in a row after their 121-99 win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (7-6) is on a three-game winning streak after their 121-109 upset win against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 12 games — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points against an Atlantic Division rival. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games after winning two games in a row. And in their last 35 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest, they have covered the point spread in 24 of those games. The Sixers return home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games at home when favored. Cleveland nailed 54.9% of their shots on Sunday in their upset victory against the Nuggets. They have shot at least 51.2% from the field in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after making at least 50% of their shots from the field in three straight games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Cleveland’s defense has taken a step back this season. After leading the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, they have dropped to 12th in the league this season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.5. The Cavs are not at 100% given some injuries — most notably Donovan Mitchell is out with a hamstring injury and Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Cleveland-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Raptors +2 v. Magic |
|
107-126 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (6-7) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 142-113 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Orlando (8-5) has won three games in a row after their 128-116 upset victory at Indiana as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Magic have pulled off three straight upset victories after beating the Chicago Bulls in back-to-back games before their contest with the Pacers. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a road dog. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win. They come into this game undermanned with two starters out due to the injuries to Markelle Fultz and Wendall Carter, Jr. Those two absences will put even more pressure on their struggling offensive attack that ranks just 25th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.6. After completing a four-game road trip, Orlando returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory at home by 20 or more points. The Raptors match up well against the Magic with four forwards in their starting lineup — Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes who could all defend Orlando’s pair of 6’10 big men in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. First-year head coach Darko Rajakovic has his team playing even better defense than the group that ranked tied for tenth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. Toronto has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.3 this season after posting a 113.1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark last year. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams remain alive for this In-Season Tournament thing — so both teams should have motivation. But Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Orlando Magic (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-23 |
Knicks +1.5 v. Hawks |
|
116-114 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). THE SITUATION: New York (5-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-98 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (6-4) has won two of their last three games in their 126-120 victory at Detroit as a 4.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York probably played their worst game of the season on Monday. Their 41.8% shooting percentage was their lowest mark in their last four games, They also allowed the Celtics to nail 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Knicks are still playing outstanding defense this season — they rank third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should play better tonight — even without R.J. Barrett who will miss this game (too) as he deals with migraine headaches. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a division opponent. After a slow start to the season, Julius Randle is playing better by scoring 24.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.5 Assists-Per-Game in his last four contests. Jalen Brunson is scoring 22.0 PPG this season while nailing 43% of his shots from behind the arc while adding 4.3 Assists-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games on the road. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots last night against the Pistons which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. Trae Young did not play last night — but he is expected to take the court tonight. He is only making 35.7% of his shots so far this season — and he is making just 29.4% of his 3-pointers. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (503) plus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-23 |
Hornets +3 v. Wizards |
Top |
124-117 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-23 |
Auburn -1 v. Baylor |
|
82-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) tips off their season after losing to Houston by an 81-64 score in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament on March 18th. Baylor (0-0) lost in the Round of 32 the next day in an 85-76 loss to Creighton. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: This Baylor team projects to be very good — they begin the season ranked 9th in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But it will likely take some time for this team to develop chemistry. Head coach Scott Drew claims that he has “never had so many new players” on a squad. This will not be a problem when they play John Brown on Thursday (the school, not a guy) — but opening up against an Auburn team that Pomeroy ranks as the 16th-best team in the nation is a challenge. The Bears have an entirely new backcourt after Keonte George got drafted by the Utah Jazz and Adam Flagler got signed by Oklahoma City as an undrafted free agent. Baylor also lost L.J. Cryer who transferred to Houston. While those players were great scorers, they were liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Bears ranked 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their small backcourt was one of the problems. Drew is likely to get his team back to playing better defense — but he may have to sacrifice too much offensive production to do so. Much is being asked of RayJ Dennis who transferred from Toledo where he won the Mid-American Conference Player of the Year — but playing elite teams from Power Five conferences is a major step up in competition. Drew needs immediate offensive production from freshman Ja’Kobe Walter who is an uber-talented wing but will be asked to score right away. Interior defense was also an issue last season — the Bears ranked 348th in the nation in defending shots at the rim. Opponents made 53.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 315th in the country — and opponents pulled down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 293rd in the nation. Drew’s front-court rotation is roughly the same — so these issues likely remain a problem. Baylor’s style of play is described as a Gambling Giant: they shoot lots of 3s, they crash the offensive glass, they focus on perimeter defense — but they sacrifice defensive rebounding to accomplish these tasks. Everything is a tradeoff — and these teams tend to struggle against styles of play described as Slow Killers. Enter the Tigers coached by Bruce Pearl who has had great success with precisely this approach. Slow Killers want to lull a game to a crawl’s pace while they focus on offensive rebounding and defending against the 3-point shot. The Tigers ranked 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to making only 28.6% of their opponent’s shots. They also ranked 49th in the nation by pulling down 32.8% of their missed shots. John Broome and Dylan Cardwell both return from last year to give Pearl a two-headed monster at the center with one of them on the court at almost all times. Jaylin Williams is a 6’8, 230-lb fifth-year senior coming off his best season — and there is plenty of forward depth that should ensure that the frontcourt remains imposing once again this year. The key to this Auburn team will be the play of their backcourt which has struggled with shot selection the last two seasons. Wendell Green is gone to the NBA G-League. KD Johnson returns with Pearl hoping he is ready to make a jump in development. But it is Denver Jones and Aden Holloway who raise the ceiling of potential for this squad. Jones transfers in from Florida International where he scored more than 20 Points-Per-Game as a sophomore. Holloway is a five-star freshman regarded as one of the best shooters in the national class. If the backcourt is improved, then the Tigers should be even better this season.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, I like Pearl versus Drew in this opening contest for both teams. Baylor averaged 26 shots from behind the arc last season — and Auburn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games against teams who launch 21 or more 3-pointers per game. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and while that is not this Bears team yet, that is their projection. 10* CBB Auburn-Baylor ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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