Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG. However, the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest. Dallas had last week off and returns here for a MNF game vs long-time rival, the NY Giants. The Giants benched Eli after Week 2 and rookie Daniel Jones led them to two straight wins, 32-31 at Tampa Bay and then 24-3 at home over Washington. However,New York comes in on a FOUR-game losing streak, after dropping a 31-26 decision to Detroit last Sunday. The 4-3 Cowboys look to record their THIRD straight season sweep of the New York Giants on Monday night, after beating them 35-17 back on Sep 8 (Week 1). Dak Prescott has been under center for each of Dallas' last five starts against New York, including throwing for 405 yards and a career high-tying four TDs back in Week 1. Prescott is completing 70.6% for 2,213 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs (102.6 QB rating). RB Ezekiel Elliott ended his preseason holdout just in time to find the end zone in the opener versus New York and he's scored in SIX of Dallas' in seven games. He ran for 111-yards against the Eagles and has 602 rushing yards on 4 .5 YPC with six TDs on the season. "I think I've gotten into the groove," Elliott said. "The last game was the best I felt this season, so build on top of that and keep that thing going."The Dallas D is allowing 17.7 PPG (5th) on 324.1 YPG (9th). Jones, the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, starred in his first career start (Week 3 at Tampa Bay), . However, he then averaged 197.8 YPG passing with a 4-7 ratio over his next four games (NYG went 1-3). Yes, the Giants lost last Sunday at Detroit, but Jones joined Prescott as the ONLY rookie QBs with two games of 300-plus yards, two-plus TD and zero INTs in NFL history, after he threw for 322 yards and four TDs vs the Lions. RB Saquon Barkley’s return to health (136 rushing yards and 87 receiving yards on 11 catches the last two games) has given the G-Men balance plus WR Sterling Shepard and CB Corey Ballentine are both expected to return to action, as each player was a full participant in practice this week. My take is that the Cowboys are nothing more than an average team and they enter this Monday matchup fat and happy, having destroyed their lone rival to the NFC East Division 37-10 in Week 7. I'm NOT sure having a bye week after that win was helpful and let's NOT forget that Dallas entered the game vs Philly off THREE straight losses. The Cowboys make a return to "the scene of the crime," the team's low moment of 2019 in which Dallas lost on this same MetLife field to the Jets on Oct 13 (see above). Barkley's healthy, WR Tate has 20 catches for 267 yards in his last three games (back from a suspension) and now Shephard rejoins the team, after catching 25 passes in the first four games of 2019. Take the points, as a win will "not come easy" for Dallas, if at all. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. |
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11-03-19 | Colts v. Steelers +1 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Most felt that Andrew Luck's sudden retirement (he stunned his teammates and the rest of the league by announcing his retirement near the end of training camp), pretty much meant a 'lost' 2019 season for the Indianapolis Colts. However, the Colts play their eighth game of a 16-game schedule with a 5-2 record. The Colts sit a half-game ahead on the Texans in the AFC South, with the Jags and Titans lurking at 4-4. The Colts are hoping to push their winning streak to four in a row when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh knows all about losing a starting QB, a Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. The Steelers opened 0-3 but have won THREE of four and with the 5-2 Ravens hosting the 8-0 Pats Sunday night, the Steelers could close within a half-game of 1st in the AFC Central with a win and a Baltimore loss. Forget Baltimore, a win puts Pittsburgh very much alive in the AFC wild card race at the midpoint of the season. Indianapolis is becoming accustomed to executing late with the game on the line. The Colts' three-game winning streak has come with victories over Kansas City, Houston and Denver (average MOV just 5.0 PPG). QB Jacoby Brissett is completing 64.5% for 1,590 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. Indy's OL is very good, paving the way to an average of 128.4 YPG on the ground (11th), led by Marlon Mack's 590 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). Pittsburgh is starting getting its offense settled behind QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 251 yards with two TDs and no INTs in Monday's win over the Dolphins. RB James Conner ran for 145 yards and a touchdown. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and his status against the Colts is uncertain at best. The good news is that Jaylen Samuels returned to practice this week and is expected to play Sunday (he hasn't played since undergoing knee surgery on Oct 7). More notably, the Steelers continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 3.8 YPC, thanks to Michigan rookie LB Devin Bush. The Colts are 5-2 but this team is no better than average both offensively (22.6 PPG ranks 16th and 345.9 YPG ranks 18th) and defensively (21.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th and 349.4 YPG allowed ranks 15th). Mike Tomlin believes the Steelers have already endured the worst of what 2019 has to offer and QB Rudolph showed Monday that he has the ability to be much more than just a caretaker (something Brisset can relate to). The Steelers own the third-best home record since 2001 (106-41-1) and the Colts haven't had a winning road record since 2004 (Colts entered 2019 with a 13-19 SU road mark). At this price, Pittsburgh is a STRONG play! Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Vikings v. Chiefs +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back. Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th). KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1). Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.' Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco. Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs. In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1). At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag! Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5. Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th). Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways. Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them. Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS). San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22. Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success. Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina. Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7. Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th). Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182). Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably. Good luck...Larry |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET. There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later).. The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?). The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014. OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Does anyone want to win the NFC East? We know the 1-5 Redskins won't/can't and the 2-4 Giants are unlikely to. That leaves us with the 3-3 Eagles and Cowboys, who meet in Dallas tonight in the latest edition on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Eagles fell to 3-3 following a 38-20 loss at Minnesota last week while the Cowboys own the same mark after dropping their third straight game with a 24-22 setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Carson Wentz has 10 TD passes against just one interception in five career starts vs the Cowboys, while Dak Prescott has five passing and one rushing TD en route to recording THREE straight wins against the Eagles. Wentz is completing 61.2% for 1,458 yards with 12 TDs and three INTs through six games. TE Ertz (33 catches) has been his top target, although WRs Alshon Jeffery (24 catches / 3 TDs) and (23 catches / 3 TDs) are both off to solid starts. The Philly running game is so-so (111.2 YPG ranks 14th) and the Eagles average 26.8 PPG (9th). The defense has been awful against the pass (280.2 YPG ranks 29th) but outstanding against the run (72.8 YPG ranks 2nd). Overall, the Eagles are allowing 24.8 PPG (23rd). Dak Prescott has cooled off after an excellent start but is still completing 69.7% for 1,884 with 11 TDs and six INTs (has 133 rushing yards and two TDs). RB Elliot has blown hot-and-cold (491 RY / 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and will have to go up against Philly's excellent rush D (see above). WRs Randall Cobb (back) and Amari Cooper (thigh) are both iffy. Cobb sat out against the Jets and Cooper didn't play after the first series.The Dallas D has performed well, allowing a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) on 331.8 YPG (9th). Dallas opened 3-0 while averaging 32.3 PPG but the wins came over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins (teams are a combined, 3-14). It's more than fair to be skeptical of Dallas but is Philly any better? TWO of the Eagles' three wins have come at home vs the 1-5 Redskins and 1-5 Jets (playing without Darnold, while their third loss was at Atlanta, in what has been the Falcons' LONE win of 2019. "We're going down to Dallas, and our guys are gonna be ready to play. And we're gonna win that football game, and when we do, we're in first place in the NFC East," Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said on 94.1 WIP. "We control our own destiny. We're right where we need to be."I sure DON'T share Pederson's confidence. Injuries have hampered both the Eagles and Cowboys but my bet says the Cowboys WON'T lose FOUR in a row, especially against a hated division rival who they've won and covered against in three straight. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET. The Chicago Bears opened the current season by losing 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 12 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2 by kicking a 53-yard FG as time expired. Mitchell Trubisky had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions the first two games but passed for 231 yards with three TD passes in Chicago's 31-15 Week 3 win at Washington in a MNF game. Trubisky went down in the opening minutes of Chicago's Week 4 game against the Vikings. Chase Daniel threw for 195 yards and a touchdown after Trubisky exited with a left shoulder injury, leading Chicago to a 16-6 victory. Daniel started Chicago's Week 5 loss (24-21) in London to Raiders but Trubisky is expected to start in this Week 7 contest against the Saints. The Saints know all about losing their starting QB. New Orleans has been without Drew Brees since he suffered a thumb injury in Week 2. However, Teddy Bridgewater has guided the team to FOUR consecutive victories. Bridgewater first led the Saints to a win at Seattle, followed with home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay and then last week won at Jacksonville. Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and matched a career high with four TD passes in a Week 5 win over the Bucs but he struggled against Jacksonville last week. He is averaging a modest 217.8 YPG passing and may be asked to do more with RB Alvin Kamara (373 rushing yards / 276 receiving yards) and TE Jared Cook (15 catches / 2 TDs) both missing this game with injuries. New Orleans' offense is averaging a middle-of-the-road 21.3 PPG (18th) but its defense has stood tall, allowing just 40 points over its last three games (20.3 PPG on the season ranks 11th). Chicago knows a little bit about defense. The Bears allowed an NFL-low 17.7 PPG, helping them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing 13.8 PPG (3rd) on 312.2 YPG (6th). However, the Bears NEED to score more, as they come in averaging just 17.4 PPG (26th) on 266.0 YPG (30th). I expect Trubisky to start but I'm fine with Daniel. Chicago has had two weeks to stew about its upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, one that snapped the team's three-game winning streak. No way the Saints could have expected to go 4-0 SU & ATS without Brees and this venue is NOT a good one for New Orleans, as it's an off-surface (grass) . The Bears are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games and I believe it's a great spot for Chicago. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET. The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points. The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters. Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st). Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee. Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th). The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives." Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here! Good luck...Larry |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd). Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2). Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1. Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season. Good luck...Larry |
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10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards. Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th). Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks. My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!). Good luck...Larry |
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10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick). Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times! Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game. I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably. Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th). The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th). The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans -4 | Top | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss. The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points! Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018? Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019. Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover. Good luck...Larry |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game? Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. . Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s. Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs"). Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG). With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th). It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.' Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -125 | 104 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET. The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game. The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale. The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC). The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said. Good luck...Larry |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET. I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true. No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title. Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known. Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion. LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!). Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.' The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October. Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 108 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch. Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!).. I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion. The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action. Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches). Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons). LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST). The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round. The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest. But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one. Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup. The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West. The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs. In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards. I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Browns +6 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST). Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year. Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points. The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks. The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-9 | Win | 100 | 104 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST). No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong. LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a 22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG. The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses. Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT. Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG. I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST). Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest. This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC. These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense. The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one. The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG. Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG. Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-18 | Ravens +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards). The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs. LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory. Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST). Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking. The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST). Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend. Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend. LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well. Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less. This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario. Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG. The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG. Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog. The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Texans -6 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST). The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak. But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick. I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home. I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST). It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll. I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST). With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue. Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own. Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST). This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup. Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs. The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass. Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today. It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG. However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG. Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT. The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home. I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina. Play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG. Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches. I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Browns v. Texans -6 | Top | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST). The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it. The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG. The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs. I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak. This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight. The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team. The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams. Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average. The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread. So where’s the advantage? This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well. Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here. Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -125 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG. Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG. These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well. Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST). The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th. The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here? The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year. Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game. KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.) LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here. Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday. The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front. KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -114 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s do or die for the defending champs. The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs. Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined. Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG. New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG. I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary. I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though. It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD. The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team. The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points. The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST). This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end. So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores. It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.) Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST) These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night. San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side. Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.) The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense. Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here. New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs. The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory. Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs. From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. Both teams are 3-5. Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league. The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records. The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday. Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday. Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week. So where’s the advantage?! Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.” Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well. Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well. Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -133 | 144 h 29 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST). These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler. Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air. Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall. I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -121 | 81 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST). The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards. The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG. Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT. Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory. Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.) I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST). These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week. The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville. Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times. The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST). It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season. The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr. The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards. Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense. Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes. Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement. Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well. The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2. The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries. I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 142 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST). Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts. Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team. For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD. Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack. The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road. I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST) Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams. Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota. Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s. The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s. Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home. I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 158 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue. Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD. After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well. A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive. Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year. And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -102 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others. Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21. Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6. Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less. I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST). While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week. Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards. New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s. Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home. The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York. Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -114 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right? Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point. However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that. Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s. Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8. Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s. Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3. The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs. Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week. The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground. Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG. Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range. I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST). The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage. I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion. Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight. Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year. Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter. Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24. I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.) I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though. The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3. Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG. I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.) Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Lions +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here. Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990. Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR. The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7. Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense. Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT. Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record. Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST). Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6. Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2. Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game. Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here. The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes. There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.) Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult. LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season. The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times. Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins. Grab the points, play on the Vikes. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going. Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here. And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3. The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2. Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs. Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance. The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST). An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week. And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension. New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback. So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet. Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers. Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season. I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record. Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously. As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST). New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami. Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2. Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue. The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s. Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well. I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest. I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +3 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -100 | 1046 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST). Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST). This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes. Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year. QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel. On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after. Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games. Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late. No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-21-18 | Vikings -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 153 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Minnesota Vikings (6:40 EST). The 14-3 Minnesota Vikings are in Philadelphia to take on the 14-3 Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it. These are a couple of the league’s best defensive clubs, but I think this one will comfortably sneak over this lower-number once it’s all said and done. Minnesota comes in off a 29-24 home win over New Orleans on a last second TD, while Philadelphia got the better of Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday. The Vikes managed the big win last week, but their vaunted defense looked pretty horrible in allowing 24 second half points. In the end Minnesota allowed 358 yards. Minnesota QB Case Keenum had 318 yards, one TD and one INT last week, while Stefon Diggs would go on to catch the 61 yard TD reception as time ran off the clock. The Vikings come into the Conference Championship game averaging 23.9 PPG, while conceding 15.8. Nick Foles is under center for the home side after starter Carson Wentz was lost to injury late in the regular season. Foles was an efficient 23 of 30 for 246 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s last week. The Eagles average 28.6 PPG, while conceding 18.4. Jay Ajayi had 54 yards on 15 carries last Saturday. Philadelphia looked sharp defensively, but I think it’ll have its hands full with Minnesota’s balanced attack. I’ll point out as well that the Vikings have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 29 or more points in their previous outing, while conversely this has been one area in which the Eagles have struggled in, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three after holding their previous opponent to ten points or less. I look for the Vikes to take this one back home and to be the first team in history to host a Super Bowl. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 153 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Minnesota Vikings (4:40 EST). New Orleans comes in off a thrilling 31-26 home win over Carolina in the Wildcard round, while Minnesota earned a first round bye after posting a 13-3 regular season record. Note that when these teams played in Week 1, it was the Vikes that easily took care of business 29-19. Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 291 yards and one TD in that one. Brees had 376 passing yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s last week. WR Michael Thomas had 131 yards, but was held to just five catches for 45 yards in the Week 1 loss to Minnesota. New Orleans looked very one-dimensional as well last week, posting just 41 yards rushing, including just 23 from rookie Alvin Kamara. The Saints comes into this one averaging 28 PPG and conceding 20.4. Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG and concedes a NFL best 15.8. In fact over their final three regular season games the Vikes allowed just 17 combined points. QB Case Keenum sports an elite 22/7 TD/INT and posted ten TD’s over his final six games. The Vikes run game played a key part in the team’s success as well as it finished seventh in the NFL on the ground. Keep your eyes on the duo of Latavius Murry and Jerick McKinnon. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six home playoff games. The Vikes got the job done all year with their smothering defensive plays (ranked second both against the pass and run) and I ultimately believe they’ll ride the unit to another solid victory in front of the home town crowd and with the extra week off to prepare. The Saints have had a great year, but the story ends tonight in this tough atmosphere. Lay the points, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST). The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire. It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team. The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21. Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge. The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground. I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest. As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team. Grab the points, play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -123 | 131 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground. Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.) LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well. Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records. LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST). The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th. The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year. Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries. I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less. Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can. Play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST). Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams. In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory. Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s. I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Eagles v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 120 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory. The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG. This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible. New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s. Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.” Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend. The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion. While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 104 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland. If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory. The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s. KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards. I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing. The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing. The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST). The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday. The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend. When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done. Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG. Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest. Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST). The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit. The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here. And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory. So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7. Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9. I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series. I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year. The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee. The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST). The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota. The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons. New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG. Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321. New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall. Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST). The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening. This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd. If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense. Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST) The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend. The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami. Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now: “We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.” I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest. This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch. Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST). The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one. Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground. The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s. Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing. Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers +2 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET. The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon. Play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Colts v. Steelers +1 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Vikings v. Chiefs +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans -4 | Top | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -125 | 104 h 1 m | Show |
01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 108 h 39 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Browns +6 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 12 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-9 | Win | 100 | 104 h 27 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Ravens +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 40 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 16 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Texans -6 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 11 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Browns v. Texans -6 | Top | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -125 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Eagles +9 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -114 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 5 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -133 | 144 h 29 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -121 | 81 h 20 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Seahawks v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 53 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 142 h 30 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 158 h 40 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -102 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -114 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 47 m | Show |
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Lions +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +3 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -100 | 1046 h 24 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Vikings -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 153 h 18 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 153 h 48 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -123 | 131 h 6 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Eagles v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 120 h 2 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 104 h 46 m | Show |
12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
12-11-17 | Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show |
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show |
11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers +2 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 27 m | Show |