Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST). The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago. Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league. Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent. I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 52 | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Falcons/Panthers (1:00 EST). The 9-5 Atlanta Falcons are in Carolina to take on the 6-8 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think a lower-scoring defensive battle is in store. Atlanta is coming off a 38-13 destruction of San Francisco, while Carolina handled Washington 26-15. Carolina has been relegated to the role of spoiler and also plays with revenge after falling 48-33 to the Falcons back in Week 4. The Panthers certainly looked fantastic on the defensive end last week, holding one of the best passing attacks in the league to just 15 points. The Falcons had no issues against a pathetic 49ers defense, but they’re going to have their hands full on the road against the divisional opponent. Note though that the 13 points that Atlanta conceded last week were a season-low. Cam Newton was solid with two TD’s and no INT’s against the Redskins. So far he has just 17 TD’s to nine INT’s. The Panthers average just 24.1 PPG, while the defense concedes 25.1, ranked 25th overall. But there’s no question that the unit took a big step forward last week, allowing no passing TD’s and shutting down Washington’s run game. I’ll also point out that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Carolina has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of seven at home this year. I think the visitors have a much harder time against the Panthers’ hungry secondary. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-16 | Chargers v. Browns +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 5-9 San Diego Chargers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-14 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Cleveland most recenlty fell 33-13 in Buffalo last week. San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention and has lost three in a row, most recently at the hands of the Raiders. So which of these two teams has more to play for today? Clearly the answer is the winless Browns, who will still get the first draft pick if they manage to get off the schneid with an outright victory. Last week San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed for only 206 yards, while the ground game posted a mere 73. Note that Rivers and company haven’t score more than 21 points in any of their last four games. Robert Griffin III though is playing for his career right now. Last week he was 17 of 28 for 196 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s. San Diego is without starting RB Melvin Gordon and top WR Keenan Allen and has little to play for. This is the Browns best opportunity for a victory this season and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this fantastic situational opportunity. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night. The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!). The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs. It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:25 EST). The 10-4 New York Giants are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-9 Eagles and despite having been eliminated from contention already, I think this one favors the home side. New York is looking to grab the top wildcard spot in the NFC, but plays its final two games of the year on the road, where it’s just 3-3 so far. The Giants most recently beat the Lions 17-6 at home on Sunday, but the Eagles also play with revenge today after dropping the first meeting of the year 28-23. New York’s weak point is its offense. Last week Eli Manning was 20 of 28 for 201 yards, two TD’s and no picks. But on the season the offense averages just 320.6 YPG, including only 81.2 on the ground. The Giants get the job done on the defensive end, conceding just 17.9 PPG. Philadelphia had a chance to keep its playoff hopes alive last week, but QB Carson Wentz’s pass to Jordan Matthews for a two point conversion was tipped at the line. I think the Eagles and Wentz come out fired up this week. RB Ryan Mathews had 128 yards on 20 carries and a TD. The Eagles rank ninth overall in rushing yards with 112.9 per game, but are just 24th in passing YPC at 227.5. Defensively they’re ranked in the middle of the pack, conceding 344.2 YPG, 12th overall. I’ll point out that New York is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 4-2 ATS this year when playing in front of the home town crowd. The Eagles won’t be rolling over today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). The 5-8 Carolina Panthers are in the nation’s capital to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Panthers have been relegated to the spoiler role, while Washington is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Washington is primed for a big day in front of the home town crowd in my opinion after dropping two of its last three contests by single-digit margins on the road. Carolina will most likely be without star LB Luke Kuechly once again. Note that the Panthers have only won once on the road this year. In last week’s home win over San Diego, Cam Newton posted an unspectacular 160 yards passing, one TD and a pick. Carolina looked pretty good defensively, but the secondary has been “hit-or-miss” all season. And that secondary will be tested early and often by Washington QB Kirk Cousins, who has over 4,000 yards passing this year. I’ll point out that Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. It’s do or die for the Redskins and I think Cousins will be able to easily exploit the Panthers’ third worst pass defense in the NFL. I look for the visitors go through the motions today and for the motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:30 EST). The 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Dallas to take on the 11-2 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucs are poised for a letdown here after their big divisional win at home over the Saints last Sunday (16-11), while the Cowboys are primed for a bounce back after falling 10-7 on the road to the Giants on Sunday night. Last week’s win was Tampa’s fifth in a row. QB Jameis Winston had an unspectacular 184 yards, zero TD’s and zero INT’s. RB Doug Martin had 66 yards off 23 carries and one TD. WR Mike Evans had four catches for 42 yards. Tampa now faces two tough road games to end the year, this week in Dallas and then next Sunday in New Orleans. It’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that divisional contest. Granted the Bucs looked pretty good defensively, holding Drew Brees to 257 passing yards while also grabbing three INT’s, but those types of performances have been few and far between for Tampa this season though and now the unit will have its hands full with a determined Dak Prescott and Cowboys teams which faltered for the first time last weekend. Prescott was just 17 of 37 for 165 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Dez Bryant had just one catch for ten yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the lone bright spot, finishing with 107 yards off 24 carries. The Bucs defense will be tested by the sixth ranked offensive unit which averages 26.2 PPG. The Cowboys continued their strong defensive play last weekend, holding Eli Manning to 193 passing yards and allowed a total of just 93 rushing yards as well. Note that Dallas concedes just 18.3 PPG, ranked fifth overall. I’ll point out that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 1-4 ATS off a win against a division rival, while Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home and 3-1 ATS off a divisional contest. I like Prescott and company to bounce back at home and as mentioned off the top, in my professional opinion the table is set for a letdown for the visitors. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +3 | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 122 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Chargers (4:25 EST). The 10-3 Oakland Raiders are in San Diego to take on the 5-8 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Raiders won six in a row before stumbling at Kansas City last Thursday and I think are poised for a letdown here as well. Conversely, the underachieving Chargers will be hungry after consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Carolina. Last week Raiders’ QB Derek Carr was just 17 of 41 for 117 yards. The Chargers took a hit when RB Melvin Gordon went down last week, but dodged a bullet on the defensive side of the ball as rookie standout Joey Bosa does not have a concussion as initially feared. Philip Rivers and the Bolts have lost plenty of close games this year and I think will remain competitive until the end of the season. Also note that Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this year against the division and 1-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while San Diego is 3-0 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, 2-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records. This one sets up as a trap and while I would not be shocked by an upset, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-16 | Saints v. Cardinals -2 | 48-41 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET. The Cardinals went 13-3 last season and made the NFC championship game, where Carson Palmer imploded with four INTs and two fumbles, as Arizona lost 49-15 to Carolina. However, along with the Panthers (and Seahawks), the Cardinals were among the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 51. However, the season started poorly with a 23-21 home loss in Week 1 to the Pats, who played without Brady (and Gronk). The Cards have never found their ‘sea legs’ in 2016. An offense which ranked No.1 in yards per game (408.3) and second in scoring (30.6 PPG) in 2015, has averaged a more modest 363.8 YPG (10th) in 2016 and finds itself a middling 15th in scoring (23.0 PPG). The Saints entered the season having gone 7-9 in THREE of the previous four seasons, making the postseason only in 2013 at 11-5. However, at 5-8, the Saints are all but guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons here in 2016. New Orleans looked OK at the season’s mid-point at 4-4 but they’ve lost FOUR of their last five, beating only the Rams in that span (note: Rams have lost EIGHT of their last nine, heading into Week 15!). The Saints exploded for 49 points in beating the Rams but have averaged just 16.8 PPG in those four losses. That includes averaging just 12.0 PPG in losing their last two games, as Drew Brees has thrown SIX interceptions and not a single TD pass in those games (he’s attempted 85 passes!) Those type of results are unimaginable for Brees and while his 2016 numbers remain impressive (70.6% / 4,170 yards / 30-14 ratio / 100.7 QB rating), it’s clear that the Saints are a team in decline. The running game averages just 104.4 YPG (18th) and the defense remains among the worst in the NFL, checking 30th in points allowed at 27.0 per. The Cards defense has fought hard all season and will come into this game ranked No. 1 in allowing just 298.5 YPG. Let me also note that Arizona’s pass D is up to the task of continuing Drew Brees’ current woes, as the Cards rank 2nd with 201.8 YPG allowed through the air. The Cardinals have allowed only just 13 TD passes through 13 games and not a single 300-yard passing game. I saw where someone wrote that Carson Palmer looked “washed-up” last week and that is probably a fair critique. Coming off a career season last year (4,671 yards / 35-11 ratio / 104.6 QB rating), Palmer has 20 TDs and 13 INTs with a QB rating of just 83.9. However, a closer look reveals he’s got a 9-10 ratio (70.5 QB rating) in road games, while at home, he’s go 11 TDs and just three INTs with a 93.9 rating. RB David Johnson plays great home and away and enters with 1,085 rushing yards (11 TDs) plus 69 catches (10.8 YPC) and four more TDs. It’s been a deeply disappointing season for Arizona (Seattle will have likely clinched the NFC West by beating the Rams at home on Thursday) but this is Arizona’s final home game of 2016 and I expect the Saints to play the perfect foil. Arizona wins here by double digits. Good luck...Larry |
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12-18-16 | Eagles +6 v. Ravens | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST). The 5-8 Philadelphia Eagles are at Baltimore to take on the Ravens on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Eagles are just playing out their season after falling 27-22 to Washington on Sunday. Rookie QB Carson Wentz will get the call until the end of the year, last week he was a strong 32 of 46 for 314 yards, one TD and one pick. TE Zach Ertz had ten catches for 112 yards. So far Philadelphia has averaged 341.4 yards per game on offense and is conceding just 20.9 PPG, ranked 12th overall. Baltimore was sloppy last weekend and I think it’s a sign of things to come. In all the Ravens would commit eight penalites for 47 yards and one turnover. They also made several major mistakes on special teams. QB Joe Flacco was 37 of 53 for 324 yards, two TD’s and one INT. RB Kenneth Dixon had just 39 yards on 11 carries. Flacco is an unremarkable 17 TD’s to 12 INT’s on the year. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including 2-1 ATS this year), 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive losses and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival, while Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 0-3 ATS in non-conference contests this year. Baltimore is still in the playoff hunt, but Wentz and company won’t be going down without a fight. They’ll also be relishing the role of spoiler. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Jets (8:25 EST). The 8-5 Miami Dolphins are in New York to take on the 4-9 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Last week New York came from behind to beat San Francisco 23-17 in OT last week, while Miami beat the Cards 26-23 at home. Note that the Jets play with revenge today after the Fish beat them 27-23 in Week 9. Miami’s win last week came at a big price though, as starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury and didn’t return. He’s now been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Matt Moore took over in relief and he was 3 of 5 for 47 yards. Moore has only attempted 30 passes over the last three seasons. RB Jay Ajayi has struggled over the last month and had just 48 yards off 20 carries. So for the Dolphins average 21.6 PPG and concede 23.2. Bryce Petty got the start at QB last week and he’d go 23 of 35 for 257 yards, no TD’s and one INT in the Jets’ come from behind win. RB Bilal Powell had 145 yards and two TD’s. New York ranks near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball, but it looked a lot better in all phases last week, especially on the defensive end, holding Colin Kaepernick to just 120 passing yards. I’ll point out that Miami is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December and just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus the division, while New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine contests played in December and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division. I think the loss of Tannehill is significant. I also think that Petty and the Jets looked a lot better in the second half of their victory last week and expect them to carry that momentum over here. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks -15 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:25 EST). The 4-9 LA Rams are in Seattle to take on the 8-4-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is in dissary after firing head coach Jeff Fisher, who was let go after the team lost its fourth straight and eighth in its last nine. Most recently the Rams were hammered 42-14 at home by Atlanta. Seattle is looking to bounce back after a 38-10 defeat at snowy Lambeau last weekend and it’ll also be out to atone for a 9-3 loss to LA back on September 18th. The Hawks have caught LA at the most opportune of times, as note that the Rams have been outscored 117-45 in their last three games. Rams’ rookie QB Jared Goff has now completed just 55.1 percent of his passs for 744 yards, four TD’s and five picks. RB Todd Gurley has taken a major step back in his second year, having just 740 rushing yards and five TD’s on 3.3 yards per carry. Russell WIlson struggled last week in Green Bay, going 22 of 39 for 240 yards, one TD and a career high five INT’s. At 8-4-1 though, the Seahawks are looking pretty good in the NFC West and they’ll now look to return to form in front of the home town crowd. Note that Seattle still ranks among the best in the league on the defensive end, conceding just 17.8 PPG I’ll point out that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Seattle is 3-0 ATS in its last three “Thursday Night” games and 2-1 ATS in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I expect Wilson and the Hawks to bounce back in a big way and think that LA struggles with consistency on both sides of the ball and in the coaching transition. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST). The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in New England to take on the 10-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore has won two straight, most recenlty crushing Miami last weekend. QB Joe Flacco had four TD’s and 381 passying yards. Beating Ryan Tannehill and the Fish is one thing, imposing your will over Tom Brady and the No. 6 ranked offense in total yards gained is entirely another though. Last week Brady became the all-time winningest QB in the NFL in his team’s 26-10 win over the Rams last week. Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman combined for 16 catches and 183 yards. From a trend based stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the home side, as I’ll point out that Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road, while New England is interestingly 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in its previous contest. Baltimore has done well at home and struggled on the road. I think that trend continues here. After already getting thumped at home by the Seahawks on national TV, I expect Bill Belichick to have his troops focused tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (4:25 EST). The 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Green Bay to take on the 6-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Green Bay has won two straight, most recently a hard-fought 21-13 victory over the Texans. Seattle has been playing well and would crush Carolina 40-7 last week. After only scoring five points in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, the Seahawks looked much better against Carolina, led by QB Russell Wilson who was 26 of 36 for 277 yards and a TD. Seattle though is poised for a letdown as it’s already wrapped up the NFC West, sitting 3.5 games ahead of Arizona. Note that the Hawks average just 22 PPG, ranked 20th overall. The strength of the team lays on the defensive side of the ball as the unit concedes just 16.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the league. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 209 yards and two TD’s in the snowy conditions last week. So far he has 29 TD’s to just seven INT’s. WR Jordy Nelson was a standout with 118 yards and a TD. Note that the Packers average 24.6 PPG, ranked tenth overall. The defense has been a weak point for Green Bay, the unit concedes 25.2 PPG. But that said, there’s no question that the Packers looked a lot better last week, holding Texans’ RB Lamar Miller to just 22 rushing yards (note that the defense has in fact allowed just 13 points in each of the last two games). I’ll point out that Seattle is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four against Green Bay, while the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. I think Seattle comes in a bit complacent here after the big home win, while Rodgers and company once again take advantage of familiar surroundings. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Packers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6.5 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). The 7-5 Atlanta Falcons are in LA to take on the 4-8 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA has lost seven of its last eight, but hasn’t thrown in the towel yet, most recently falling to New England. Atlanta is just 3-4 after a 4-1 start and is most recently coming off a frustrating 29-28 home loss to KC last weekend. The Falcons have to be especially deflated after last week’s setback, as after erasing a double-digit deficit to take a 28-27 lead, Chiefs’ safety Eric Bery intercepted the ensuing two-point conversion and returned it for the improbable 29-28 victory. The Rams were in over their heads last week, posting only 25 yards in the first half, before then recovering in the second to make it look somewhat respectable. Jared Goff has now completed 51 of 95 attempts for 509 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s. But thankfully for Goff and the home side, they’re going up against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary today. Goff and company did put up three TD’s against the Saints a couple weeks back, so should also have plenty of opportunity to move the ball today as well. I’ll point out that Atlanta is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite (including only 2-4 ATS this season), while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of 3.5 to seven points. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I look for Goff to play much better in friendlier confines. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Jets +3 v. 49ers | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (4:05 EST). The 3-9 New York Jets are in San Francisco to take on the 1-11 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Last week San Francisco fell 26-6 at Chicago, while New York was trounced 41-10 by Indianapolis on Monday night (note that I had the Colts in that one). Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was only five of 12 for 81 yards, no TD’s and one INT last week. Bryce Petty came on in relief and he’d go 11 of 25 for 135 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Petty has been given the green light for the final four games of the season and looked a lot better than Fitzpatrick, despite the two picks. San Francisco’s QB situation is much worse though. Colin Kaepernick was benched during the fourth quarter last week after completing one of five passes for four yards. Blaine Gabbert came in in relief and was 4 of 10 for 35 yards. I’ll point out that New York is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records and just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 in front of the home town crowd. I think that Petty is better than either Gabbert or Kaepernick and believe that’s going to be the difference in end between these two cellar dwellers. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 114 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU & ATS start has been put in the ‘rearview mirror,’ as the Eagles are 2-7 in their last nine games, failing to cover any of those seven losses. The Redskins opened 0-2 but then won four in a row. However, Washington is just 2-3-1 over its last six games and at 6-5-1, sits seventh in the NFC, when only six teams make the postseason. These NFC East rivals meet for the second time on Sunday, with Washington winning 27-20 at home back in Week 6. However, the game was not as close as the final score, as the Redskins outgained the Eagles, 493-239 in total yards. The Eagles have currently turned into a bottom-six NFL team, done in by weak skill position players, made even weaker by key injuries and a defense which, after a strong start, has allowed 26 points or more in FIVE of the last six games. Rookie QB Carson Wentz averaged 256.3 YPG through the air with five TDs and zero INTs as the Eagles opened 3-0. He had a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio through five games but over the last seven, has just five TD passes and 10 INTs, earning a QB rating below 76.0 in FIVE of those seven games (it’s just 80.1 for the year). His best WR, Jordan Matthews (57 catches / 686 yards) has ankle issues and missed last week’s game (remains questionable for this one) and leading rusher Ryan Matthews has missed two straight games with a knee issue (is also questionable for this one). The Redskins won the division last year and may be a better team in 2016 but the problem is, the Cowboys have been the NFL’s best team in 2016 at 11-1 and the vastly improved Giants are 8-3. QB Cousins has proven doubters wrong, as he’s completing 67.5% and his 309.1 YPG through tyeh air ranks 2nd in the NFL (21-8 ratio for a QB rating of 99.6). Washington owns a deep group of receivers, as Cousins has targets like DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. It’s an added bonus if star TE Jordan Reed can play after missing last Sunday with a shoulder injury. Note that the Eagles have only six sacks in their last six games and the team's battered secondary has permitted multiple TD passes in SEVEN of their last nine games. Washington’s defense is mediocre at best (24.6 PPG to rank 20th) but the Philly offense has scored 15, 13 and 14 points the last three weeks! The Eagles have ‘hit a wall’ but Washington is still very much alive for a playoff berth. A win here and Washington faces the crumbling 4-8 Panthers and the sad-sack 3-9 Bears the next two weeks. A win here could be the first of a three-game winning streak which would put Washington at 9-5-1 heading into a Week 17 game with the Giants. Not getting ahead of myself but Washington (8-2 ATS in its last 10!) earns a top-rating of 10*s in this Week 14 game. Good luck...Larry |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). Last week the Vikes and Cowboys went down to the wire on Thursday night and all signs point to another close one this week, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The short week is tough at this time of year and it’s twice as hard for the visiting side. At 10-2, Oakland is looking tie up home-field advantage through the playoffs still, but I think it’s going to finally have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere on the national stage. Oakland most recently beat Buffalo 38-24 on Sunday as QB Derek Carr had 260 yards and two scores. RB Latavius Muarry had 20 rushes for 82 yards and two TD’s. Note though that it was the team’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. I think Kansas City is the “hungrier” team today, it’s a game behind Oakland in the AFC West. The Chiefs come in with plenty of momentum, most recently off an OT win in Denver and a victory at Atlanta last week. Note that the Chiefs are hopeful that standout WR Jeremy Maclin will return this week after sitting the last four with a groin injury. I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 ATS this year versus division opponents and 0-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC is 3-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season and 2-1 ATS against the division. A major advantage working in favor of the Chiefs tonight is the weather, as it’s expected to be -8 Celsius or less in Kansas City on Thursday. Oakland isn’t used to performing in those types of conditions. I’m laying the points and expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PRIME-TIME PERFECT STORM is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are in New York to take on the 3-8 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis looks to get back on track after a 28-7 loss on Thanksgiving to the Steelers, one which saw starting QB Andrew Luck sidelined with injury. Luck is back for this one though and he takes on a floundering Jets team which enters off a 22-17 loss at home to the Pats. Note that the Colts play with revenge here after losing 20-7 to New York last season. Last week Indy’ back up QB Scott Tolzien struggled, throwing one TD and two INT’s. But as mentioned off the top, Luck is back and he’s so far had a very good season, with 2,827 yards and a 19:8 TD/INT ratio in ten games played. Note that the Colts average 24.5 PPG, ranked 12th overall. The defense has been the weak point, giving up 27.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Indinapolis’ defense though clearly catches a break this week in facing the Jets’ anemic unit which averages 17.8 PPG, ranked 28th. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked decent last week, but overall he’s been a disaster with a horrible 10:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that the defense concedes 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st. I’ll point out that the Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while New York is interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing road records. The Jets have struggled against the pass all year, conceding an average of 263 passing yards per game and I have hard time seeing that unit slowing down a refreshed Luck. New York has already been eliminated, while Indianapolis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot. I’m backing the “hungrier” side, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Chargers at 4:25 ET. Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually getting close to turning the corner? The Bucs have won FIVE of seven games since a 1-3 start and after their 14-5 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday, they own THREE consecutive wins and find themselves just one game back of the 7-4 Falcons in the NFC South. No one ever doubted QB Jameis Winston’s talent but some questioned his character. However, he continues to silence his critics. He completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes. which means he’s now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans (eight catches for 108 yards), who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season. RB Doug Martin is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards (up from 33- and 63-yard efforts the previous two games). The defense checks in at 19th in points allowed (24.0 per) but is off its best game of the season, holding Seattle without a TD in last Sunday's 14-5 win. Seattle QB Russell Wilson battled injuries in October, going three straight games without a TD, passing or rushing, to close out the month. However, Seattle was 3-0 in November as Wilson’s return to health saw him pass for six TDs (without an interception) plus he added added a rushing and receiving score, as well. Seattle had averaged 29.3 PPG in its three-game winning streak but that all came to an end at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Russell was 17 of 33 for just 151 yards (0 TDs / 2 INTs), as Seattle scored only five points (a defensive safety and a FG), gaining only 245 yards while converting just 1 of 11 third-down opportunities. The Bucs now travel cross-country to San Diego, looking to continue their outstanding road play which has seen them go 4-1 SU & ATS. However, they’ll meet a San Diego team which may be just 5-6 but owns a home win over Denver plus road wins at division leaders Atlanta and Houston. Let me also add that the Chargers 1-4 start included an OT loss at KC (blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead), a four-point loss at Indy, a one-point loss to the Saints and a three-point loss to the Raiders. QB Philip Rivers is having another magnificent season, RB Melvin Gordon is headed for comeback player of the year honors and CB Casey Hayward leads the NFL in interceptions with six. The Chargers ranked 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren’t able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). The team has fixed that this season, as they are gaining almost the same amount of yards (37.1 per game to rank 8th) but instead of averaging just 20.0 PPG, they are scoring 28.5 PPG to rank 4th in the entire NFL! Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s topped 4,000 passing yards in SEVEN of his last eight seasons, while averaging 29.6 TD passes per year in that span. Doing the math, he’s on pace to throw for over 4,300 yards in 2016 and 33 TDs. Gordon was San Diego’s 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He’s got 908 rushing yards this season (on pace for over 1,300) and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches! At 5-6, this is “last stand” time for the Chargers and this Tampa Bay team just doesn’t have the pedigree to keep winning on the road. Expect the Chargers to even their record at 6-6, earning the win “with room to spare!” Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-16 | Broncos -4.5 v. Jaguars | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST). The 7-4 Denver Broncos are in Jacksonville to take on the 2-9 Jaguars and despite being down to their No. 2 QB, I think this one favors the visitors. Denver comes in off a 30-27 OT loss to Kansas City, while Jacksonville fell 28-21 to the Bills. The Chiefs hit a game-winning field goal as time expried in OT last week. QB Trevor Simien was great, but he was injured near the end of the game, meaning the Paxton Lynch will get the call tonight. I don’t see much of a drop off between these two, as the offense is primarily focused around the run game anyways. Denver wins games because of its defense and special teams’ play and I’m expecting these two phases to once again play a big part in the final outcome of this one as well. Note that the Broncos average 24.2 PPG, ranked 13th overall. The defense concedes 19.9 PPG, ranked 19th overall, but note that the unit did post six sacks last week. The Jags are a mess and come into this one having lost six straight. Last week struggling QB Blake Bortles had 126 yards and two TD’s. The run game was decent with 183 yards with one TD. The offense though averages just 19.5 PPG, ranked 26th overall. The defense is on par with the offense, conceding 26.6 PPG, which also ranks 26th overall. I’ll point out that Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 following a straight up loss, while Jacksonville is interestingly, just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. As Bortles goes, so go the Jaguars. Jacksonville relies on Bortles to move this offense, which doesn’t bode well in facing the Broncos No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing an average of just 193 passing yars per game. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs +4 v. Falcons | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST). The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs are in Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. KC comes in off a confidence building 30-27 OT win over Denver, while Atlanta enters off a 38-19 win over Arizona. Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had 220 yards, one TD and no INT’s. TE Travis Kelce made eight catches for 101 yards. KC is once again in the thick of the AFC West race and averages 22.9 points per game, ranked 16th overall. Kansas City’s normally stout defense looked a bit shaky last week, but despite the sub-par performance, the unit still concedes an average of just 19.5 PPG. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan was solid once again last week, finishing 26 of 34 for 269 yards, two TD’s and an INT. WR Julio Jones had four catches for 35 yards, but the run game picked up the slack by posting three rushing major scores. Atlanta owns the league’s No. 1 offense, one which averages 32.5 PPG, but its defense has been a disaster, conceding 27.5 PPG, ranked 28th. I’ll point out that KC is 4-2 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 as a favorite (including only 2-3 ATS this year). I think the Chiefs’ superior defense and special teams will play a significant role in the final outcome of this game and while I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, ultimately I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Texans v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 113 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 6-5 Houston Texans are in Green Bay to take on the 5-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Houston comes in off a listless 21-13 loss to San Diego last week, while Green Bay got off the schneid with a convincing 27-13 win in Philadelphia on Monday night. Last week Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler struggled with 246 yards, zero TD’s and three INT’s. So far he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 13 picks. WR DeAndre Hopkins has just one 100 yard receiving game this year. Note that RB Lamar Miller had just 57 yards on 19 carries last week. It comes as little surprise to learn that Houston ranks in the bottom of almost every offensive category, the unit averages just 17.6 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The defense has also regressed as the season has progressed and now concedes 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th overall. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers was 30 of 39 last week for 313 yards, two TD’s and no picks. So far Rodgers has 27 TD’s to just seven picks. Davantae Adams had five grabs for 113 yards and two TD’s. The offense averages 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense concedes 26.3 PPG, ranked 25th, but looked a lot better last week in allowing just 292 total to Philadelphia. I’ll point out that Houston is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Green Bay is 3-1 ATS his season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points. I simply can’t see the Texans keeping pace with the Packers and their surging offense, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NFL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 52 | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Chargers v. Browns +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 2 m | Show |
12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 5 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +3 | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 122 h 1 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Saints v. Cardinals -2 | 48-41 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 60 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Eagles +6 v. Ravens | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks -15 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6.5 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Jets +3 v. 49ers | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 114 h 5 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 52 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 31 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Broncos -4.5 v. Jaguars | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Chiefs +4 v. Falcons | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Texans v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 113 h 54 m | Show |