Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 9-38 Brooklyn Nets are in Miami to take on the 18-30 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a revenge game for the Nets after they fell 109-106 to Miami on January 25th. I feel this sets up as natural letdown spot for the over-acheiving Heat, who have won seven straight. Conversely, the Nets will be risking life and limb today in trying to get back into the winners circle, as they come into this one having lost five in a row. Most recently Brooklyn fell 129-109 to Minnesota on Saturday. Brook Lopez was a bright spot with 25 points and seven boards. The Heat most recently beat Detroit 116-103 on Saturday. Goran Dragic had 23 points. Despite the recent better overall play of late, note that Miami is still just 10-13 SU at home this year. And note that Brooklyn is already 9-4 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Miami is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I like the Nets to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-26-17 | Pacers +4 v. Wolves | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Indiana Pacers (8:05 EST). The 22-22 Indiana Pacers are in Minnesota to take on the 17-28 Timberwolves and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Pacers are going to be the “hungrier” team tonight in my estimation, they enter off a third straight loss, this time 109-103 at home to the Knicks. Conversely, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the suddenly over-achieving Timberwolves who come in off their third straight victory, most recently a 112-111 win on the road over Phoenix. So far Indiana averages 105.4 PPG, while conceding 106.8. Paul George leads the way with an average of 22.2 PPG. Minnesota averages 103.5 PPG and allows 104.5. Karl-Anthony Towns leads the way with 22.4 PPG. I’ll point out though that Indiana is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 when playing on two days rest, while Minnesota is interestingly just 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 home games against teams with a losing road record. A desperate Indiana team. A contented Minnesota side. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 15-30 Miami Heat are in Brooklyn to take on the 9-35 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel this sets up as a big time letdown spot for the Heat, who come in off their season-high fourth straight win after upsetting the Warriors 105-102 on Monday night. Brooklyn will be the much “hungrier” side tonight, it comes in having dropped two straight, most recently a 112-86 setback at home to the Spurs on Monday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement, as Miami has won seven of the last eight in the series, including a 110-99 home victory in the most recent matchup back on March 28th, 2016. Despite the win over the Warriors, Miami still only averages 98.9 PPG. Brooklyn averages 105.8. The Heat are much better defensively, but as i mentioned off the top, it’s impossible not to think that Miami won’t have some sort of letdown here after their shocking defeat of mighty Golden State last time out. Combined with the revenge factor, it’s a perfect set of situational circumstances to take advantage of. Also note that Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while Brooklyn is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against teams with losing records. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on Brooklyn. Good luck…Larry |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:05 EST). OKC sits 3.5 games behind the Jazz in the Western Conference standings, making this a very meaningful mid-season game. He may have been snubbed at the All Star Game, but I think Russell Westbrook brings his “A” game tonight and at the very least, helps his team take this one down to the wire. The Thunder enter off a 121-100 loss to the Warriors, a game which was tied at halftime. Westbrook would go on to finish with 27 points, 15 boards, 13 assists, two steals and two blocks in the loss. It was his 21st triple-double of the season. OKC can score with the best of them, but lacks on the defensive end in conceding 105.6 PPG. Utah is coming off a 109-100 win over Indiana, led by 30 points from George Hill. Utah isn’t a high-scoring team, but gets the job done with tough defenisve play, the No. 1 ranked unit in allowing only 98.9 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Thunder are already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6.5 points range and 7-3 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Utah is just 8-11 ATS against teams with winning records and only 15-16 ATS against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. This is a tough matchup. For both teams. I’m expecting a highly competitive affair, one which will be decided in the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +12 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Orlando Magic (12:05 EST). The 37-6 Golden State Warriors are in Orlando on Sunday afternoon to take on the 18-27 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Warriors, who come in off their sixth straight win, most recently a satisfying 125-108 road victory over Houston on Friday. Orlando is going to be the “hungrier” team today in my opinion. The Magic do come in with some postitive momentum, after losing three straight and seven of eight, Orlando got back into the win column with a solid 112-96 win over the Bucks on Friday. The Warriors have the No. 1 offense, but the defense ranks middle of the pack in conceding 105 points a night. Orlando averages only 100 points per night, while conceding 104.7. I’ll point out though that the Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a five-game unbeaten streak, while Orlando is 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 112 points or more. Golden State may be 17-3 SU on the road, but it’s only 8-11 ATS. With a game tomorrow night in Miami, I think the visitors come into this one a bit distracted and the focused home side keeps it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-21-17 | Bucks v. Heat -1 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Heat (7:30 EST). The 20-22 Milwaukee Bucks are in Miami to take on the 13-30 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee comes in off a 112-96 road loss in Orlando just last night. Miami on the other hand has shown some life in winning two straight, most recently a 99-95 victory over Dallas on Thursday. The last time these teams played, the Bucks took a 116-108 home win, which of course sets up the revenge scenario for Miami tonight. Milwaukee averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 103.8. The Heat average just 98.6 PPG and allow 102.6. As mentioned above though, Miami has looked a lot better over its last two games And note that Miami is 8-6 ATS this year against clubs with losing records and 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is only 7-12 ATS on the road and just 8-13 ATS against teams with losing records. The Bucks are in a free-fall and they won’t have an easy time tonight in the second game of the back-to-back. I think the home side continues to build momentum and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-17 | Raptors -6 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Philadelphia to take on the 13-26 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I played against the Raptors last night, and Brooklyn would manage a slim 1-point cover with the large 11-point spread it was afforded. Suffice it to say, i think Toronto bounces back with a much bigger effort this evening. These teams have already played twice and the Raptors have won both easily, winning 122-95 in the first meeting, before a 123-114 win in Philadelphia last month. Toronto has now won three straight and averages 111.3 PPG, while conceding 104.6. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 30.5 PPG this month and is now fifth in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG. Philadelphia is playing its best basketball of the season, but I still don’t think it will be enough. Despite winning four of their last five, the 76ers still average just 99.5 PPG, while allowing 105.3 I’ll point out that Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, while Philadelphia is a poor 9-20 in its last 29 divisional contests. Toronto has kicked it up a notch of late, averaging over 120 PPG over its last five. This is a matchup which the 76ers have struggled with and I don’t see anything changing tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-17-17 | Raptors v. Nets +11 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-32 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Clearly the Raptors are the better team, but I think they’ll come in a bit complacent in facing the lowly Nets and look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Toronto most recently hammered the Knicks 116-101 at home on Sunday, while Brooklyn lost its tenth straight in a 137-112 home loss to the Rockets. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Toronto has won six straight in the series, including both meetings this year. So far Toronto is third in the league in scoring with an average of 111.3 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive end in conceding 104.6 The Nets are ranked 14th overall in scoring in posting 105.3 PPG, but are last on the defensive end in conceding 114.9 PPG thus far. I’ll point out that Toronto is just 23-30 ATS in its last 53 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Brooklyn is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Because of all the reasons listed aboved, I think this is a few too many points to be giving up today. Play on the Nets. Good luck…Larry |
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01-16-17 | Cavs +8 v. Warriors | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). The 29-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are at Golden State to take on the 34-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Warriors have now lost four straight to the Cavs going back to the Finals when they blew a 3-1 lead. Cleveland won 109-108 at home on Christmas day and I think all signs point to another nail-biter tonight as well. The Cavs snapped a mini two-game slide with a 120-108 OT win in Sacramento on Friday. Newly acquired sharp-shooter Kyle Korver had 18 points off the bench, including 4 of six from range. LeBron James had 16 points and 15 assists. So far Cleveland posts 109.4 PPG, which ranks fourth. The Cavs concede 103.5, which is 11th. The Warriors have won three in a row and average 117.5 PPG, ranked No. 1. The team doesn’t need to be the best on the defensive end, and it isn’t, conceding 105.4 PPG, ranked 21st. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 4-1-1- ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest and 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 following a SU win of more than ten points, while Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home and only 1-7 ATS following a SU victory. There’s something about this rivalry that brings out the best in LeBron James. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I think the visitors will at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:05 EST). Analysis posted at least 3 hours before game time. |
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01-13-17 | Cavs -6 v. Kings | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (10:30 EST). The 28-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Sacramento to take on the 16-22 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs tonight as they look to snap a two-game slide. The Kings enter off a win which snapped a three-game skid by beating Detroit on Tuesday. After wins over the Nets and Suns, the Cavs lost 100-92 at Utah on Tuesday and then 102-86 at Portland on Wednesday. LeBron James had just 20 points and Kyrie Irving had just 11. Is it time to hit the “panic button” if you’re a Cleveland fan? Of course not. These types of games/stretches happen to even the best of them. For championship teams like the Cavs, it serves as a “wake up call.” DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points, 13 boards and six assists in his teams 100-94 victory over the Pistons. Note though in the three previous losses, he averaged just 18.3 PPG on 17-of-45 shooting. I’m expecting James to lead the drive tonight. Cleveland is too deep and talented and a three-game losing streak would clearly not be acceptable. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 18-22 Detroit Pistons are at Golden State to take on the 33-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit comes in off a 110-94 loss to the Sacramento Kings. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 21 points. The Pistsons would go on to allow the Kings to shoot 13 of 24 from behind the arc. Reggie Jackson leads the team with 16.9 points. So far on the season Detroit ranks 24th in the NBA in scoring at 100.1 PPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive end in conceding 100.3. Kevin Durant had 28 points and eight boards in a home win over Miami last time out. Guard Klay Thompson was given the night off in that one. The Warriors shot 45.3 percent from the floor and are now 17-3 in front of the home town crowd this season. Note that Golden State leads the league in scoring at 117.3 PPG. I’ll point out that Detroit is just 8-11 ATS as an underdog this year and just 8-13 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 12-8 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more. The Warriors have gone 5-1 SU in their last six, but are 0-6 ATS in that span. I think that trend finally gets broken today as I simply can’t see the offensively challenged and now road weary Pistons matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Knicks (7:05 EST). The 17-21 New York Knicks are in Philadelphia to take on the 10-25 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Knicks are the “hungrier” team in my estimation. The Knicks have lost two in a row and eight of their last nine after falling 110-96 at home to New Orleans on Monday. Conversely, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the suddenly surging 76ers who have won three of their last four, most recently a 105-95 victory in Brooklyn on Sunday. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Knicks have to be loving their chances to get untracked as they’ve taken five straight and nine of the last ten in the series. New York averages 105.5 PPG and is actually tied for third in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per contest. Where the Knicks lack on most nights is on the defensive end of the floor in allowing 108.9 PPG. Carmello Anthony leads the way with 21.9 points and 6.1 boards per game. Philadelphia is 26th in the league in scoring with an average of just 99.2 PPG. It’s 20th in rebounding and ranked 21st on the defensive end in conceding 105.9 PPG. Joel Embiid leads the way for the 76ers with 19.4 points, plus 7.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that New York is 9-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 3-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Philadelphia is just 5-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and only 1-4 ATS after a divisional contest. I think desperation breeds motivation and success leads to complacency. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 21-16 Atlanta Hawks are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-28 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Hawks are poised for a bit of a mental letdown in my opinion after winning six straight, most recently a 97-82 victory in Dallas on Saturday. Conversely, the lowly Nets will be desperate to break a six-game slide, most recently falling 105-95 at home to the 76ers. Brooklyn plays with revenge of course, as it’s lost seven of the last eight in the series, but note that the last time the teams met in New York, the Nets escaped with the 90-88 win on November 17th, 2015. Clearly the Hawks are the better team overall. While just 20th in scoring offense at 102.3 PPG, Atlanta makes up for it on the defensive end in allowing just 102.8. Brooklyn is 15th in league scoring at 105.4 PPG, but last on the defensive end in allowing 114 per contest. I simply feel however that this sets up as a natural letdown/lookahead/trap game for the visitors, who conclude a four game road trip after posting three straight wins, before enjoying three whole nights off and their first game back at home. Brooklyn’s level of desperation will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-17 | Warriors v. Kings +10.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (9:00 EST). The 31-6 Golden State Warriors are in Sacramento to take on the 15-21 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors look vulnerable in this spot in my estimation after having their four game win streak snapped in a brutal 128-119 OT loss to Memphis on Friday. The Kings on the other hand will be risking life and limb today as they try to break a four-game slide, most recently a 106-98 setback at home to the Clippers on Friday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Golden State has taken 12 straight in the series. The Warriors own the No. 1 offense in the league, but clearly the team has major issues on the defensive end. The slumping Kings will look to reverse their fortunes and take advantage. Sacramento averages 102.2 PPG and is middle of the pack on the defensive end, allowing 104.6, ranked 16th (the Warriors are ranked 20th). I’ll point out that Golden State is in fact 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a losing straight up record, while Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a straight up loss. Sacramento has Rudy Gay back in the line-up, which is a good boost for a team in need of postive momentum. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Kings can take advantage of this still reeling Warriors team and keep it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-17 | Jazz +6 v. Raptors | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF SIDE OF THE MONTH is the Utah Jazz (7:35 EST). The 22-14 Utah Jazz are in Toronto to take on the 23-11 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Toronto returns home after an extended road-trip, there’s no question that this one does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Raptors. They lost 110-82 at San Antonio most recently on Tuesday. Utah continues its Eastern road swing and enters off a 115-104 road loss to Boston. Note that the Jazz play with revenge here after falling 104-98 to the Raptors back on December 21st. It was a rare weak defensive effort for Utah in the setback to the Celtics. Overall the Jazz shot a solid 46 percent. The setback snapped a four-game win streak, but Utah still sits in first place in the Northwest division standings. Note that the Jazz average only 99 PPG, while conceding just 94.5, which ranks No. 1 in the league. The Raptors average 110.3 PPG, while conceding 103.4. I’ll point out that Utah is 7-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 3-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is a deplorable 0-9 ATS after scoring 85 points or less. As mentioned off the top, I think this one sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the Raptors after returning home from a lengthy road trip. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-16 | Mavs +18 v. Warriors | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (10:35 EST). The Mavericks come to Golden State off a confidence building 101-89 road victory over the Lakers last night and I think they can carry that momentum over here. Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel that the high-powered Warriors will “look past” the lowly Mavs today, as the team won’t play again until January 2nd. Golden State averages 117.3 PPG, but is sub-par defensively, ranked in the lower-third in the league on that side of the floor. The hungry Mavs will have their chances tonight. I’ll point out that Dallas is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against clubs with winning records, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-6 ATS this year against the Southwest divsion and only 6-9 ATS against clubs with losing records. Not surprisingly, the Mavs play with revenge today after losing by 21 at Oracle earlier in the year. The stage is now set for a much more competitive affair in my opinion though, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 19-13 Boston Celtics are in Cleveland to take on the 23-7 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the C’s finally have a letdown here after winning two straight and six of their last seven, most recently a 113-103 home victory over Memphis on Tuesday. Conversely, the Cavs are looking to start their new win skein after a five game streak was snapped in a 106-90 setback to Detroit on Monday. Note though that most of the Cavs starters were rested in that second game of the back-to-back after their epic come from behind 109-108 victory over the Warriors on Christmas Day (I had Cleveland in that one, part of my 5-0 Christmas Day sweep of the board). Boston is 12th in the league in scoring with 105.4 PPG and 14th on the defensive end in conceding 103.3. Cleveland is fourth in league scoring with an average of 110.1 PPG and 13th overall defensively by conceding 103 PPG. I think it’s also important to point out that the Cavs rank second in three point shooting with 39.8 percent from behind the arc. And note the the C’s are just 3-5 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while the Cavs are 5-1 ATS this season after a division game and 5-3 ATS when playing with two days of rest. With a much “easier” game at home tomorrow night against the Heat, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and the defending champs step up and take full advantage. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-16 | Raptors v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-121 | Push | 0 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 22-8 Toronto Raptors are in Golden State to take on the 27-5 Warriors tonight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Toronto has been playing great, but I think is primed for a letdown here after winning four in a row and eight of its last nine. The Warriors on the other hand look to bounce back and make a statement after a tough 109-108 Christmas Day loss in Cleveland (I had the Cavs in that one, part of a 3-0 NBA X-Mas day sweep and an overall 5-0 holiday card!). The Raptors were rolling right along on a seven game win streak before then falling to the Cavaliers at home a couple of weeks ago and now they face the best team in the West. It’s a very similar situation. Also note, with a very winnable game tomorrow night in Phoenix, Toronto could even elect to rest some of its starters if this one gets out of reach. I’ll point out that Toronto is just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Golden State is (not surprisingly), 14-10 ATS this season against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and also 6-4 ATS after a non-conference game. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 18-13 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 12-22 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitor. Utah looks to get back on track after dropping three straight, most recently a 104-98 home loss to Toronto on Friday. The Lakers though look primed for an immediate return to mediocrity after managing a 111-102 Christmas Day “home” win over the Clippers. If recent history is any precedence, then the Jazz have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve won six of the last seven in the series, including the first two meetings this year, the most recent a 107-101 win in LA back on December 5th. Utah is is ranked 24th in the league in scoring at 99.1 PPG, but is No. 1 in scoring defense in conceding just 95.2. George Hill is one of four players which average double figures with 20 points plus 4.2 assists per contest. I think it’s worthy to note that despite struggling on the offensive end so far this season, the Jazz are eighth in the league in three point shooting at 36.3 percent. LA is ranked 16th in the league in scoring at 104.5 PPG, but is brutal on the defensive end, conceding 110.6 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Lou Williams leads the way with 18.7 points and 3.2 assists per game. I’ll point out that Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while LA is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten when playing on one days rest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory. I think the stage is set for the hungry Jazz to get back on track with a convincing effort against the consistently inconsistent Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-16 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (8:00 EST). The 15-16 Indiana Pacers are in Chicago to take on the 14-15 Chicago Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I played against the Bulls on Christmas Day and they’d go on to lose badly in San Antonio last night. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors can take advantage of the schedule and at the very least, take this one down to the wire. If recent history is any precedence, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances tonight as they’d beat the Bulls 111-94 at home back on November 5th. Let’s face it, both teams are really struggling right now. Indiana is paced by Paul George, who averages 21.7 points and seven boards per contest. Chicago got out to a great start, but has since come crashing back down to Earth. Jimmy Butler leads all scorers with an average of 24.4 PPG. The Bulls do average 101 PPG, but are ranked last in the league in three-point shooting percentage at 30.8. I’ll point out that Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS this year as a home fav in the two to six points range and only 5-9 ATS against teams with losing records. The Pacers are the “fresher” team and I think that’ll be the difference maker today. Play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the OKC Thunder (8:00 EST). If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I base my picks on many different criteria. For this particular selection though we’re keeping it simple. OKC has been on a big role of late, riding the amazing play of versatile swingman Russell Westbrook and when it faced the Wolves on November 25th, it would come away with a relatively simple 112-92 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance here. Minnesota had won three of its last four before a 109-105 setback to the Kings in its last game and with a home contest against Atlanta tomorrow night, I think the visitors come in flat on Christmas day. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up beautifully for the home side as Minnesota is just 7-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 6-9 ATS against teams with winning records, while OKC is 5-1 ATS as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 105 points or more. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-16 | Hawks +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (9:05 EST). Denver is just 12-17 but looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of its last four. Atlanta is 14-15 on the year, but sits just two games back in its division. The Hawks are interestingly just 1-6 in their last seven home games, most recently falling 92-84 to the Wolves. So far Atlanta averages 102 points per game. Big man Dwight Howard hasn’t been in the line-up the last two games, but Paul Millsap is still a force to be reckoned with, he had 18 points, seven assists, ten boards and two steals in the humbling setback to Minnesota. The Nuggets had their mini three-game win skein snapped in a 119-102 blowout loss at the hands of the Clippers. Will Barton was a bright spot with 22 points. Denver has been decent offensively, but its defense has been atrocious, conceding a whopping 109.7 PPG, which ranks its 27th overall. I’ll point out that Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while Denver is just 12-20 ATS in its last 32 when playing with two days of rest and and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a home fav of 3.5 to six points. I think that the Hawks are the more desperate team tonight. Denver’s little run is over and once momentum is lost, it’s very difficult to flip a switch and get it back. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-16 | Rockets v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phoenix Suns (9:00 EST). The 21-7 Houston Rockets are in Phoenix to take on the 8-20 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Houston enters off a 111-109 OT win over the Wolves on Saturday and then fell 102-100 at home to the Spurs just last night. It’s the opportunity that the hungry Suns have been waiting for and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for Phoenix to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Houston is an offensive juggernaut in averaging 113.1 PPG, ranked second only to the Warriors. The defense though is poor, conceding 105.8 PPG, which is 20th overall. Phoenix can score with the best of them, averaging 106.4 PPG, which ranks it ninth overall. Like the Rockets though, the weak point for the Suns comes on the defensive end where they concede 113.1, ranked 29th in the league. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a road fav in the 3.5 to six points range, while Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses, 6-4 ATS against teams with winning records and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to six points range. For all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -13 | Top | 90-135 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). The 13-15 Portland Trailblazers are at Golden State to take on the 23-4 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors enter off three straight SU victories. The Blazers are trending the opposite directoin, having lost five of their last six after falling at Denver on Thursday. Portland has given up at least 118 points in three of its last four outings. Most recently the Blazers allowed the Nuggets to shoot better than 50 percent, while also letting Denver hit 15 of 31 from range. And that doesn’t bode well versus this focused Warriors team which is seemingly getting better with each game. Most recently Golden State assisted on an amazing 41 of their 45 baskets in the 103-90 win over New York. I’ll point out that Portland is just 4-8 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 6-10 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 6-4 ATS this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 following a win by ten points or more. The Blazers are playing horrible defense right now and I look for that trend to carry over here. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 14-11 New York Knicks are in Golden State to take on the 22-4 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors bounced back from a loss at Memphis to win their last two games, over Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. New York had won six of seven before an OT loss in Phoenix on Tuesday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, is even harder to get back. I’ll point out that New York is just 1-3 ATS in its last four on the road and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Golden State is 12-8 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more and 6-3 ATS this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. It’s a tough road trip for New York, with a game in Denver on Saturday and it’s not too hard to imagine the team getting caught looking ahead. Conversely, after a somewhat difficult five-game road trip behind them, I’m expecting the Warriors to come out fired up in the opener of a three-game home stand. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). Sacramento has won two of its last four, including a 116-92 victory over the Lakers on Monday. Houston enters off a 122-118 win over the Nets on Monday and is poised for a letdown here after posting its seventh win in a row. The Kings would hold the Lakers to just 39 percent from the field and were led by DeMarcus Cousins, who had 31 points, 16 boards, five assists, three blocks and two steals. Houston looked poor defensively against the Nets, allowing Brooklyn to shoot 52 percent from the field. James Harden was two rebounds away from a triple-double. I’ll point out that Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against the Southwest division, while Houston is just 16-23 ATS in its last 39 after three or more consecutive SU victories. Cousins is a man possessed right now and I think he and the Kings can keep this one competitive in facing the Rockets poor defense. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-16 | Wolves +7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:00 EST). The 6-18 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Chicago to take on the 13-10 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I believe the Wolves will be the “hungrier” team today, they enter off their fourth straight loss, most recently a hard-fought 116-108 home setback to the Warriors on Friday. Chicago on the other hand looks poised for a letdown here after winning its second straight, this time a 105-100 victory over Miami on Saturday. But if recent history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be loving their chances for an outright victory today as they’d take both meetings last year, including a 112-105 win in the last matchup on February 6th, 2016 in Chicago. Minnesota will be especially motivated after letting a late lead slip away in the fourth quarter against Golden State. Note that Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine each had 25 points in the setback. Chicago got 31 points, seven boards, five assists and three steals from Jimmy Butler in the win over Miami. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 4-1 ATS this year after three more consecutive SU losses, while Chicago is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. With two nights off before a home-and-home set with Milwaukee, I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Conversely, the hungry Wolves are desperate to break the slide and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). The 12-13 Portland Trail Blazers are in LA to take on the 17-7 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I think Portland, which has dropped three straight, will be the “hungrier” team today and am expecting that determination to at the very least, lead to a solid cover for the visitors tonight. LA broke a three-game slide with a blowout win over New Orleans on Saturday. Portland will be especially motivated here after letting sizeable fourth quarter leads slip away, most recently a disappointing setback to the Pacers: “This wasn’t a normal loss,” Blazers guard C.J. McCollum said after. “We’ve had a lot of these games we should win, games we’re up double digits and they make more plays than us down the stretch, they make more hustle plays. They make aggressive moves toward the basket, they get fouls. They finish the game and we don’t.” LA blew out the Hornets and Chris Paul led the way with 20 points, 20 assists and zero turnovers. But with a three game road trip on the horizon, I think the Clippers get caught “looking ahead.” And I’ll point out that Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 6-17 ATS in its last 24 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think this is too many points to be giving up. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Knicks v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (9:35 EST). The 13-10 New York Knicks are in Los Angeles to take on the 10-15 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Knicks are poised for a letdown in my opinion after winning five of their last six, most recently a 103-100 victory on the road in Sacramento. Conversely, the Lakers will be risking life and limb tonight to get back into the win column after droping five straight, most recently a 119-115 home setback to Phoenix on Friday. New York is 15th in the league in scoring (104.2) and tied for 23rd in scoring defense (106.9). LA is 11th in the NBA in scoring (104.9) and 27th in scoring defense (110.7). I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-3 ATS in its last four on the road, while LA is 2-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. I think from a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. Despite injuries to some key players, I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done ATS tonight. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-16 | Nets v. Spurs -14 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The 6-15 Brooklyn Nets are in San Antonio to take on the 18-5 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Brooklyn enters off a home win over Denver, but has yet to win two games in a row this season. San Antonio’s four-game win skein ended in a loss at Chicago on Thursday, so any sort of a “letdown” in its first game back home has been nullified. Brooklyn is in a rebuilding mode, so the pressure is off coach Kenny Atkinson, who has been tasked to build the team from the ground up. San Antonio on the other hand is coming off its first road loss of the year, coming one victory away from matching the league’s best-ever road start. I’ll point out that Brooklyn is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games and only 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams with winning home records, while San Antonio is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 after playing three consecutive road games. Spurs coach Greg Popovich unloaded on his team after the loss to the Bulls: “We haven’t learned as a group that the game is 48 minutes,” Popovich said during his tirade. I think San Antonio bounces back here and steamrolls the lowly Nets. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has been a disaster this year, it’s just 4-17 overall and has lost two in a row. Indiana is 11-11 and has also struggled with consistency on both ends of the court this season. Indiana looks poised for a letdown here though after earning a road victory over the lowly Suns on Wednesday. Paul George had 25 points in the win. Note though that the Pacers are near the bottom of the league in scoring defense, conceding 107.3 PPG, ranked sixth worst overall. Dallas enters off an embarrasing 120-89 blowout loss at home to Sacramento. I had the Kings in that one. The Mavs are among the league worst in most offensive and defensive categories and I won’t try to convince you that they’re a decent team which has just caught a few bad breaks, as that’s not the case. Dallas is a poor team. But Indiana is not a “good” team either. It’s shown flashes every now and then, but overall it’s been consistently inconsistent. I simply think this sets up as a classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot for the visitors, who play the final game of a five-game road trip, before then heading home for a contest tomorrow night against Portland. I’ll also point out that Indiana is already just 4-7 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Dallas is interestingly, 4-2 ATS in its last six against the Central division. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (7:00 EST). The 8-14 Denver Nuggets are in Washington to take on the 7-13 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one I don’t think. Washington has lost three of its last four after falling 124-116 at home to the Magic on Tuesday and is clearly hungry for a victory. The home side also plays with double revenge after dropping both games to the Nuggets last year, including a 117-113 setback in Washington on January 28th, 2016. But if all of those motivational and situational factors weren’t enough, Denver comes into this one having also played just last night in Brooklyn, losing 116-111. Clearly the Nuggets are going to be “gassed.” I’ll also point out that Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on back-to-back days, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. This is in fact the Nuggets third road game in the last four nights. The Wizards have had a day off to look at themselves in the mirror and must take advantage of this situation. And that’s exactly what I expect them to do, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-16 | Kings -3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-89 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (8:30 EST). The Kings are looking to snap a three-game slide and a date against the lowly, undermanned Mavs is just what the doctor ordered to get off the schneid. Sacramento most recently fell 106-98 to New York on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins had 36 points and 12 boards. Dallas fell 109-101 to Charlotte on Monday and lost center Andrew Bogut to a knee injury in the process. Dallas would go on to get outrebounded 55-35. Harrison Barnes was a bright spot, finishing with 29 points. Dirk Nowitzki missed his fifth straight game, while JJ Barea missed his tenth in a row. I’ll point out that Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU loss, while Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. The Kings averaged 116.3 points in taking three of four in this series last year and I’m expecting a similar blowout tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). The 11-9 New York Knicks are in Miami to take on the 7-13 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the “hungrier” home side. After winning three straight and six of their last eight after downing the Kings 106-98 at home on Sunday, I think the Knicks have a predictable letdown here. While New York is 9-3 at home this year, it’s just 2-6 on the road. It isn’t overly spectacular on either end of the floor, ranked 15th in scoring with an average of 104.3 PPG, while ranked 22nd in scoring defense, conceding 106.4 PPG. Carmelo Anthony leads the way with 22.5 points, plus 6.2 boards per game for the Knicks. The Heat can empathize, they’ve also struggled with consistency on both ends of the court this year. In their latest loss to the Trailblazers, big man Hassan Whiteside had 28 points, 16 boards and five blocks. Miami averages just 97.1 PPG, ranked 28th overall. The defense though has been solid all year, it concedes an average of just 98.8 PPG, ranked sixth. I’ll point out that New York is just 3-5 ATS on the road this season, while Miami is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 versus good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. With a game at home against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tomorrow night, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. A great situational play, I’m backing the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CA$H BOMB is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 13-5 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Toronto to take on the 14-6 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Cavs come into this one with zero momentum, most recently dropping their third straight in a 111-105 setback to Chicago on Friday. Meanwhile, Toronto enters on absolute fire, it’s won six straight, most recently a 128-84 drubbing of the Hawks on Saturday. These teams have played twice this year, and the Cavs have prevailed each time (94-91 in Toronto on October 28th and 121-117 at home on November 15th). Of course, it was the Cavs that knocked Toronto off in six games of the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago as well. The “revenge factor” working in favor of the home side is off the charts tonight. These teams are trending in opposite directions right now and while the Cavs will clearly get things turned around sooner than later, I don’t think that’s going to happen tonight in this hostile environment. Toronto posted its biggest win in franchise history last time out, with eight players scoring in double figures. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four away from friendly confines, while Toronto is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six North of the border and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side tonight and I expect it to take full advantage. Play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Pistons (6:05 EST). The 8-12 Orlando Magic are in Detroit to take on the 11-10 PIstons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Magic beat the 76ers 105-88 on Friday, while the Pistons won their third straight on the road and fifth in their last six overall by crushing the Hawks 121-85 on the same night. If recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be loving its chances for a fourth straight win, as it’s taken seven straight in the series, including a convincing 108-82 beatdown in the first matchup this year. Orlando is the one that looks poised for a letdown here, despite the victory over the lowly 76ers, note that the team still averages only 92.9 PPG, ranked second to last in the league. The Magic get the job done on the defensive end of the court, conceding an average of just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Last time out for Detroit, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope led eight other players in double figures with 23 points and eight boards. The Pistons average 100.4 PPG, but conceded just 96.9, ranked second overall. Tobia Harris leads Detroit with 17.1 points and 4.9 boards per outing, while Marcus Morris chips in 14 points and four boards. I’ll point out that Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more and only 1-9 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while Detroit is 5-1 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, 3-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less and 3-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. The Magic are just 4-6 SU on the road, while the Pistons are 7-2 at home this season. I think the home side continues its hot run and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The 10-11 LA Lakers are in Memphis to take on the 12-8 Grizzlies and for a number of different reasons (despite several injuries to key players), I think this one favors the home side. LA isn’t surprising anyone anymore, last night it lost its fourth in its last six after getting destroyed 113-80 by the Raptors on the road. I had a play on LA in that one and while I don’t normally ever “flip-flop,” on a team, I always remain flexible with my approach (especially in the regular season) and for the most part analyze contests by a “game by game” basis. Conversely, Memphis enters this one with momentum after breaking a three game slide with a 95-94 home win over Orlando on Thursday. LA averages 106.6 PPG, but allows 109.6. Lou Williams leads the way with 16.7 points plus 3.5 assists a night off the bench. The Grizzlies would outscore the Magic 30-26 in the fourth quarter to score the 1-point win. The hungry home side would force 17 turnovers and big man Marc Gasol finished with 25 points and five blocks. So far Memphis averages just 97.2 PPG. The Grizzlies get the job done with tough defensive play though, allowing just 98.3 PPG, good for fifth in the league. I’ll point out that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Memphis is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a home dog of three points or less. LA is dealing with a few injuries as well, so while Memphis may be injured, it’s still very dangerous in this position. LA played just 24 hours previous in Eastern Canada and had to fly half way around the country for this one. I’m banking on the Grizzlies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Wizards +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:30 EST0. The 6-11 Washington Wizards are in San Antonio to take on the 15-4 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards will be in a particularly foul mood today after letting a 7-point lead slip away late in regulation, eventually falling 126-115 in OT in OKC. They’re also out for revenge after SA beat them 112-110 at home last Saturday night. Washington would waste another big effort from guard Bradley Beal, who had 31 points in the loss to the Thunder. Markieff Morris also had a big game, added 19 points and seven boards. So far the Wiz average 102.8 PPG. After Orlando beat SA by 12 on Tuesday, the Spurs would bounce back with a lacklustre 94-87 win over the Mavericks on the road on Wednesday. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard had 21 points and seven boards against the Mavs, but was just 5 of 16 overall. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 when playing on one days rest, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. The Spurs have struggled with game-to-game consistency and I think the hungry visitors will give them everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Clippers (8:00 EST). The 14-5 LA Clippers are in Cleveland to take on the 13-3 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I think that LA is the much more motivated side tonight after three-straight losses, most recently a 127-122 double OT road setback in Brooklyn on Tuesday. And I think that this does in fact set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cavs, as they had their four-game win streak snapped with a lacklustre 118-101 setback at Milwaukee on Tuesday. And despite this being a non-conference contest, this does set up as a bit of a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 114-90 setback in Cleveland on March 14th, 2016. It should be noted as well that in the loss to the Nets, star forward Blake Griffin was given the night off for rest and to prepare for this one. LA is a tough, deep team which ranks seventh in scoring defense in allowing just 98.9 PPG. The offense is ranked sixth with an average of 108.6. The Cavs are second in the league in scoring with 111.3 PPG. They’re 14th in scoring defense by allowing 103.8 PPG. I’ll point out that the Clippers are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season. With a three game road trip against the best in the East which starts tomorrow night in Chicago, there’s no question that this also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the home side. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). The 6-10 Wizards are in Oklahoma City to take on the 11-8 Thunder and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Washington has started to turn things around of late as it would win for the third time in four games by besting the Kings 101-95 in OT at home on Monday. OKC also comes in on a three-game win skein after defeating the Knicks 112-103 on the road on Monday (I had the Thunder in that one). Despite this being a non-conference game, it still does set up as a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including both matchups last year. The Wizards would knock down 10 of 25 three point attempts in their latest win, while holding the Kings to just 3 of 21 shooting. Guard Bradley Beal had 31 points, including a career-high seven three-pointers. As Russell Westbrook goes, so go the Thunder. In the win over New York he posted his eighth triple-double of the year with 27 points, 18 boards and 14 assists. I’ll point out though that Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-6 ATS this year in the same position and only 7-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. With three whole days off before a game at home against the Hornets, I think the Thunder take the foot off the gas and get caught looking ahead to the extra time off. Washington has been playing much better in all phases and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Memphis Grizzlies (7:35 EST). The 11-7 Memphis Grizzlies are in Toronto to take on the 11-6 Raptors and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Memphis most recently lost 104-85 to the Hornets on Monday, while Toronto smashed the 76ers 122-95 at home on the same night. The Grizz play with a bit of the revenge factor on their side this evening after dropping both games to the Raptors last season. The reason the Grizzlies are getting so many points here is that guard Mike Conley is out. The team is also without the servics of James Ennis and Chandler Parsons. I simply feel this is a bad “spot” for Toronto though and expect it to get caught a little complacent. The Raptors have hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with the lowly Lakers at home on Saturday up next. And note that despite averaging just 96.9 PPG this season, the Grizzlies allow just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Toronto averages 109.1 PPG, good for fifth overall. But note that the Raptors concede an average of 104.3 PPG, ranked 16th overall. I’ll point out that Memphis is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less, while Toronto is just 3-4 ATS in all non-conference games. This one sets up as a bit of a trap for Toronto. I’m banking on the visitors keeping this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-16 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The 11-6 Houston Rockets are in Utah to take on the 9-8 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Houston has been surprisingly good on the road this year and I expect that trend of strong play to continue tonight, as note that the Rockets have won three straight away from friendly confines. In fact, Houston has won five of its last six, including a convincing 111-102 victory at home over Utah ten days ago. The Jazz are the NBA’s leading defensive team, but I think they come out flat and tired after their high-scoring 112-103 win in Minnesota just last night. And that’s bad news against a Rockets team which averages 109.8 PPG, ranked third overall. Keep your eyes on James Harden of course, he leads the NBA in assists and is fourth in scoring at 28.9 per game. The Rockets most recently beat the Blazers by 16, posting 130 points in the process. Utah leads the league in several defensive categories, but as I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the Jazz, as note that they’re already just 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year and 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records. And note that Houston has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 8-0 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 5-3 ATS against clubs with winning records. I’m laying the points with confidence and expect a wire-to-wire rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Thunder +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on OKC (7:30 EST). The 10-8 Oklahoma City Thunder are in New York to take on the 8-8 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. OKC comes in with momentum, it’s now won two straight after dispatching the Pistons 106-88 at home on Saturday. The Knicks enter off a 107-102 road loss at Charlotte on Saturday night. After dropping seven of their previous nine, the Thunder have seemingly turned the corner once again, perhaps most impressive in the win over the Pistons was that they’d hold them to just 45.1 percent shooting and only 1 of 19 from 3-point range. The Knicks have been better at home this year, but they’re still giving up an average of 106.3 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. I’ll point out that OKC is 4-2 ATS in its last six after a win by ten points or more, while New York is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. I like Russell Westbrook and company to do just enough at the end of the night. Play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF SUPER SIDE is on the Atlanta Hawks (9:35 EST). LA has lost four of its last five as it continues to deal with numerous injuries. D’Angelo Russell has already missed the last three games and forward Julius Randle and guard Nick Young were both out in Friday’s 24 point loss to the Warriors. If Young or Randle do somehow manage to play today, clearly they won’t be at 100% capacity. The Hawks will look to take advantage and also to avenge a 123-116 loss at home to the Lakers on November 2nd. Atlanta will look to push the pace as LA is allowing an average of 111.9 PPG, which ranks it 28th in the league (in fact, opponents are shooting 48.7 percent, which ranks the Lakers dead last). The Hawks will be especially motivated here, they’re 10-6 and still lead the Southeast Division, but have lost four of their last five, including a humbling 95-68 beatdown loss to the Jazz on Friday. I’ll point out though that Atlanta is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while LA is just 3-5 ATS against clubs with winning records this season. I think there are enough situational and motivational factors working in favor of the visitors today to confidently pull the trigger on this top rated 10* selection. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +3 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Toronto has struggled defensively of late, but has still averaged 113 points over its last five games. Most recently the Raptors fell 123-115 to the Clippers in LA on Monday night: "It seems like everybody we've played the last couple weeks we've turned it into an offensive slugfest," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "Until we get defense in the game and maintain in the game (things will remain the same). I think our guys are trying. They're trying defensively but we're not getting it done. We're not getting stops when we need to." Houston is poised for a letdown here after three straight victories, most recently a 99-96 win at Detroit on Monday night. The Rockets’ James Harden is having a tremendous season, but note that he’s shooting just 73.9 percent from the line over the last four games. The Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan continues to lead the league in scoring, so I’m calling him and Harden a “wash” tonight. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-1 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while Houston is a deplorable 13-21 ATS in its last 34 after three or more consecutive victories. With a large Western road trip starting on Thursday night, I think that the home side gets caught looking ahead and the hungry Raptors at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-16 | Jazz +5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Utah Jazz (5:05 EST). Houston is 7-5 and comes in off a win against the struggling Trailblazers. The Rockets have been all over the map as far as their game-to-game consistency is concerned. Utah is 7-6 and has been plagued by the injury bug early. After a successful five-game Eastern road swing, the Jazz come into this one having lost two straight at home. Note that Utah is 5-3 on the road this year though. Point guard George Hill is out, but second-year guard Dante Exum has done decently, averaging nine points and two assists. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Jazz forward Gordon Hayward. I’ll point out that Utah is already 4-2 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS following a win by ten points or more. With another tough game tomorrow night in Denver, I’m expecting the visitors to leave everything on the floor tonight and to at the very least, come away with the comfortable ATS victory. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-16 | Blazers +4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Portland Trailblazers (8:05 EST). The Rockets played and lost just last night in OKC, 105-103 and suffice it to say, I think an upset is in the works this evening as well. Thunder guard Russell Westbrook went off for 30 points, seven boards and nine assists against the Rockets. Now Houston has to try and contain the Blazers’ Damian Lillard, who is ranked fifth in scoring in the NBA (29.8 points) and eighth in usage rate at 32.6 percent. The Rockets struggled to score in the fourth period, running out of gas and it obviously isn’t going to get any easier tonight in playing the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Note that Houston posted just 13 points in the final frame last night, missing nine consecutive shots at one point. And that’s music to Portland’s ears, as it’s struggled with defensive consistency this season, ranked 29th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive rating: “Our defensive rebounding is a concern," Portland coach Terry Stotts stated yesterday. "It's addressed and we've got to get better and focus on it." I’ll point out though that Portland is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 after playing three consecutive home games, while Houston is just 19-22 ATS in its last 41 when playing on back-to-back days. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). I successfully played on the Raptors against the Cavaliers last night and they’d manage to score the cover once it was all said and done. Cleveland is playing amazing basketball right now, but I think the stage is set for an upset tonight. Indiana has struggled defensively this year, it came into its contest with Orlando on Monday giving up 108 PPG. But the Pacers took a big step forward in the defensive department and held the Magic to a season-low 69 points in the victory. And note, despite the overall losing record Indiana is 5-1 at home this year. Before beating the Pacers in Indianapolis last February, LeBron James’ teams hadn’t won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012. It’s a prime spot for a letdown for the defending champs. So far Cleveland has risen to almost every challenge to open the season, but last night’s game was a war down to the final bucket and I think the team will be gassed this evening. I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 as a road fav of 3.5 to six points and only 14-28 ATS in its last 42 against the division, while Indian is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 3.5 to six points range and 22-12 ATS in its last 34 against the division. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). DeMar DeRozan (the Eastern Conference’s Player of the Week after averaging 34.7 points on 54 percent shooting during Toronto’s 3-0 week) and the Raptors come to Cleveland firing on all cylinders and looking for a little revenge after falling to the Cavs on their home floor earlier in the season. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the visitors at the very least, take this one down to the wire and cover comfortably with the spread. DeRozan has now become the first player to score at least 30 poitns in eight of his first nine games to start a season since Michal Jordan did it back in 1986. The Cavs have been fantastic this year as well, they’re now on pace to make more 3-pointers than any team in history. But note that Cleveland is just 1-3 ATS this year against teams with winning records and just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as a home fav of 3.5 to six points. And note that Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four against clubs with winning records and 3-0 ATS on the road this season. These two Eastern Conference favs are destined for another playoff battle this year, but if Toronto has any hopes of playing for the league title, it’s going to have to find a way to win in Cleveland. The stage is now set for that to happen, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-16 | Heat +11 v. Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat. Miami plays with revenge today after falling 106-99 at home to the Spurs earlier in the season. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back wins, most recently a satisfying 106-100 victory in Houston, revenging a home loss to the Rockets a week previous. The “aura” surrounding the Spurs’ home court advantage is completely gone now, although they did end a three-game home losing streak with a win over Detroit on Friday. The Heat are just 2-6 and will be desperate for a victory today. While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the intensity level in which the visitors play with tonight will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Most recently Miami fell 102-91 to a streaking Jazz team at home on Saturday. Heat big man Hassan Whiteside has been a bright spot, he’s now the only player in league history to start a season grabbing double-digit rebounds over the first eight games. It’s hard to imagine San Anontio “looking past” the Heat today, but with a two-game conference road trip starting in Sacraemento on Wednesday and against the resurgent Lakers on Friday, the possibility does definitely exist for that to occur on some small level. I’ll point out that Miami is 29-20 ATS in its last 49 following a loss by ten points or more, while San Antonio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 105 points or more. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Pelicans (7:05 EST). The Pelicans got off the schneid with a 112-106 road win over the Bucks last time out and suffice it to say, I think the team carries that confidence over and ultimately finds a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. LA comes in off a 101-91 victory over the Kings on Thursday, but with a game tomorrow night at Minnesota, I think this young team gets caught “looking ahead.” Keep your eyes on Pelicans’ forward Anthony Davis, who had 32 points and grabbed eight boards in the victory over Milwaukee. And note, it’s true that New Orleans is just 1-8 to start the year, but their margin of defeat in eight of its losses has been by 6.0 points. I’ll also point out that LA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after a win by ten points or more, while New Orleans is 30-17 ATS in its last 47 against the Pacific division. The Lakers have been an early surprise, but I think they come back down to Earth tonight. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 EST). Philadelphia is the East’s lone winless team at 0-7, most recently dropping a tough 122-115 OT game to the Pacers on Wednesday in Indiana. I think the home side comes into this one fired up though as it looks to avenge that frustrating setback and to also finally get off the schneid. And while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the 76ers have lost ten of the last 11 in the series. Also note, Sixers center Joel Embiid was rested on Wednesday, but is expected to play tonight. Embiid averages a team-leading 17.6 PPG. With a date at home against Boston tomorrow night, I think the Pacers get caught “looking ahead” and Philadelphia does just enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-16 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Sacramento has won seven straight in the series. Sacramento enters off a 102-94 victory over New Orleans on Tuesday. The Kings have shown flashes of brilliance at times this year, but they’ve also looked very poor in others, holding three opponents to under 100 points, but they’ve surrendered an average of 107 points in their five setbacks. LA’s fifth ranked offense will look to take advantage, so far the Lakers average 108.6 PPG and a victory tonight would give them four wins in a five-game stretch. I’ll point out that LA is 4-2 ATS in its last six off an upset loss as a favorite, while Sacramento is interestingly, just 1-3 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. With a game tomorrow night at Portland and with matchups against San Antonio, the Clippers and Raptors on the horizon, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly Lakers, who at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-16 | Rockets +7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (9:35 EST). Houston comes to town with a ton of momentum, having won two straight, most recently a 114-106 victory over the Wizards on Monday. The Spurs won 40 of 41 regular season games at home last year, but have dropped two straight at the AT&T Center, most recently a humbling 114-92 setback to the Clippers. San Antonio allowed a whopping 73 points at half time. Forward Kawhi Leonard had just 14 points, all of which came in the first half. Spurs welcome back Tony Parker to the mix, he’s been out since opening night against the Warriors because of a knee issue. I think his effectiveness is in question tonight. The Rockets looked good in their win over the the Wizards, especially on the defensive end in the final quarter. James Harden has gotten out to a great start as well, he had 15 assists and 32 points in the victory: "This offense gives me a lot more space, a lot more room for me to get to the basket and for me to find guys," Harden assessed after the victory. "You have to respect our shooters. The guys just knocked down some shots tonight and we found our rhythm in the fourth quarter." I’ll point out that the Rockets are already 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 following a loss by ten points or more. I think Houston carries its momentum over into this one and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-16 | Magic v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bulls (8:05 EST). Chicago opened with three straight victories and looked ready to challenge the Cavs for Eastern conference supremacy, but the wheels quickly fell off and the Bull have come back down to earth with three straight losses. Orlando opened with three straight losses, but comes into this one riding a three game win streak. Most recently the Bulls fell 111-94 to the Pacers, a team which they beat during their opening season win skein. Indiana came in off consecutive defeats and caught the Bulls in a bad spot. But now it’s time for Chicago to bounce back in this home game. Orlando comes to town off an 88-86 win over Washington on Saturday. Orlando’s turnaround has been decent, but I’ll caution in reading too much into it quite yet as the competition level has been minimal, with wins over the 76ers, Kings and Wizards. Dwayne Wade has so far been the focal point of the Bulls’ offense, so expect to see a lot more of everyone else, especially Jimmy Butler: "I'm just going to have to lead the charge when it comes to coming out with the right energy, making sure we're doing everything we're supposed to on both ends of the floor," Butler said. "I'm definitely capable of doing that, so I can't come out lackadaisical. I've got to make sure everybody is doing what they're supposed to do. I think that's on us. It's not even on the coaches." With much easier games at home against Minnesota and Utah this week, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for Orlando tonight. And with a tough road trip starting on Wednesday on back-to-back nights, Chicago knows that it can ill afford to waste this opportunity. All of the situational factors are in place for the Bulls this evening, but I’ll also point out that Orlando is in fact just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU losses. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:00 EST). Dallas is 0-5 to open the season and will be playing tonight without the services of Dirk Nowitzki, who is being sidelined with an Achilles injury. Despite those facts, I think the desperation level in which the home side plays with tonight will prove to be the difference once the final horn blares. And here’s the perfect opponent and situation to take advantage of, as Milwaukee comes to town content after hammering the Kings 117-91 at home just last night, making it three in a row for the Bucks. The Mavs most recently fell 105-95 at home to Portland. But if history is any precedence, then Dallas has to be loving its chances today, as it’s won three straight in this series at home and 11 of the last 13. I thnk it’s significant to note that Milwaukee is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Dallas is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU losses. A perfect storm of factors collide to make the Mavs the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). Indiana is just 2-3 on the year, but has won both games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers play with the immediate “revenge” factor after falling 118-101 at the United Center last Saturday. That was the second night of a back to back for Indiana. But now the tables have turned, as the Pacers look to exact a little revenge on a Bulls team which just gave up 117 points in a loss in New York last night (and that was on the heels of giving up 107 to Boston). After three straight wins, the Bulls have regressed and the veterans will surely be gassed in this back-to-back scenario. Dwayne Wade especially should be tired tonight after going 5 of 7 from 3-point range and finishing with 35 points, all for naught. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 as a road dog of three points or less, while Indiana is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a home fav of 3 points or less. It’s a great spot to pull the trigger on this LEGEND play, lay the points with the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-16 | Warriors v. Lakers +10.5 | Top | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Lakers (10:30 EST). This is one of those “common sense” plays tonight. Golden State is coming off an emotional 122-96 win over the Thunder just last night and I think it will come out flat in tonight’s game against this much improved Lakers team. LA comes in with a ton of momentum as well after handing Atlanta its first loss of the year on Wednesday, as the Lakers finished their road trip with the 123-116 victory. Lou Williams had 11 of his 19 points in the final frame. The Lakers somehow managed a win against Golden State in their final meeting last year and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset today as well, I simply feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors. And note that Golden State is already 0-2 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while LA is 5-1 ATS in its last six against clubs with winning records. I think the home side can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-16 | Pacers -3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indiana Pacers (8:05 EST). I like the Pacers to move over .500 with a big effort against the younger Bucks this evening. If history is any precedence, then Indiana has to be loving its chances today as it would take three of four from the Bucks last year. All star forward Paul George averaged 22 points, 7.7 boards and 5.7 assists in those three meetings. The Bucks were led by Giannis Antetokounmpo with 16.0 points and 6.5 boards in the season series. Indiana’s offense finally came alive in its 115-108 win over the Lakers and I’m expecting that momentum to get carried over here. Indiana has failed to cover the spread in three straight games, but all signs point to that trend ending tonight. I think the Bucks are poised for a letdown after their outright upset victory on the road over New Orleans on Tuesday, note that they’re a poor 21-24 ATS in their last 45 after scoring 105 points or more. And note that Indiana is 27-23 ATS in its last 50 after scoring 105 points or more. Lay the points, play on the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Washignton Wizards (7:00 EST). I had a play on the Timberwovles last night. Minnesota opened the season 0-2 after having late double-digit leads evaporate in both setbacks. The Wolves returned to Minnesota for their home opener on Tuesday and would go on to destroy the Grizzlies. This is an identical situation to take advantage of, as the 0-2 Wizards will be risking life and limb tonight to secure the victory and avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Most recently the Wizards fell 112-103 in OT to the Grizzlies, after letting a late 96-88 lead slip away. Toronto is 2-1, most recently coming off a 105-102 win over the Nuggets on Monday. The Wizards dropped all four regular season games to the Raptors a year ago, so will have the added motivation for a little revenge tonight as well. Note though that Toronto is just 31-46 ATS in its last 77 after scoring 105 points or more, while Washington is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 when playing with two days of rest. I think the motivated home side gets off the schneid and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-16 | Warriors -7 v. Blazers | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:05 EST). The Warriors have yet to cover the spread this season, but I think they “get off the schneid” in that department tonight. Portland beat Golden State 137-105 on February 19th, handing the Warriors their worst one-sided defeat in a half decade. Damian Lillard had 51 points in that one. The Warriors though would eliminate the Blazers in five games in the playoffs though. Lillard has averaged 35 points, 8 boards and 5.3 assists in his first three games this year and is clearly an MVP candidate. Golden State has at least two, or perhaps three players which could challenge for that distinction as well though. The Warriors haven’t had a “break out” offensive performance yet, as the team continues to come together with some of its new faces. I think that changes tonight though. All eyes will be on this game tonight and I’m expecting the visitors to finally erupt offensively. Kevin Durant had 37 points in a 106-100 win over Phoenix on Sunday. Stephen Curry had 28 points. Draymond Green chipped in nine points, 13 boards and nine assists. Note that Golden State is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 as a road fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Portland is just 46-51 ATS in its last 97 against teams with winning records. Lay the points, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-16 | Kings v. Hawks -7 | Top | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Sacramento is 2-1 to open the season, while Atlanta is 2-0. The Kings seemed poised for a letdown here though after being down by as many as 20 points to the Timberwolves on Saturday, only to rally for the 106-103 victory. Atlanta has looked good to open the year, most recently destroying the 76ers 104-72 on Saturday. And if history is any precedence, then the Hawks have to be loving their chances today as Sacramento hasn’t won in Atlanta since March 3rd, 2006. So far the new faces have looked pretty good for Atlanta, as Hawks’ center Dwight Howard had 19 boards in a win over the Wizards in his home debut, while point guard Dennis Schroder had 11 assists in the win over Philadelphia. Paul Millsap has averaged a respectable 22.5 PPG over the first two. This is the start of a big Eastern road swing for Sacramento, which has a quick turn around with a game in Miami tomorrow night. Atlanta on the other hand enjoys a night off before welcoming the lowly Lakers to town on Wednesday. I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and the surging home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-16 | Warriors -11 v. Suns | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (6:00 EST). The 1-1 Golden State Warriors are in Phoenix to take on the 0-2 Suns and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home visitors. The Warriors bounced back from a humiliating Opening Night defeat at home to the Spurs to better New Orleans 122-114 on the road on Friday. The Suns are coming off a heartbreaking 113-110 OT loss to the Thunder on Friday. If history is any precedence, then Golden State has to be liking its chances today as it’s won the last seven in the series, including all four last year. So far Golden State is ranked fifth in scoring with an average of 111 PPG. The team is also tied for third in assists with 28 a night. Kevin Durant has led the way with 28.5 PPG so far, while Stephen Curry has added 24.5 points and 5.5 assists. Phoenix on the other hand is ranked 18th in the league in scoring early with an average of 102 PPG. TJ Warren leads the team with an average of 22 points, seven boards and 2.5 assists per game. I’ll point out that Golden State is 4-0 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest, while Phoenix is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS victory. I have a hard time seeing the the defensively inept Suns being able to guard all of Golden State’s weapons and look for the Warriors to finally have their first big offensive rout of the season. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-16 | Wolves +1 v. Kings | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (10:30 EST). If history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be liking their chances to notch their first victory tonight, as the Wolves would take all four meetings against the Kings last year. Sacramento beat the Suns 113-94 on Opening Night in Phoenix and then predictably had a letdown in a 102-94 loss to the Spurs on Thursday. Sacramento has looked better defensively after giving up a league-worst 109.1 PPG last year. The Wolves come to town off a tough 102-98 loss to Memphis on Wednesday, a game which they led with 1:45 to go, but they’d fall part and allow an 11-5 run to end the contest. Minnesota struggled in defending the perimeter against the Grizzlies, but the Kings operate their offense primarily in the paint, so I’m expecting a much better game defensively from the visitors this evening. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Sacramento is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home dog of three points or less. I think this is a matchup which favors Minnesota, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-16 | Warriors -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (9:35 EST). Golden State was slapped back into reality on Opening Night and you can bet it’s going to be out for some redemption this evening. Suffice it to say, I look for the explosive Warriors to be just too much for New Orleans to handle and expect the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. "It was a slap in the face," Warriors’ forward Keving Durant said after scoring 27 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in the loss to the Spurs "Woke us up a bit." New Orleans also comes in off a frustrating setback, ruining a 50 point, 16 board, seven steal, four-block effort from big man Anthony Davis in its 107-102 home loss to Denver. As good as Davis is, he can’t defend the perimeter and the Pelicans are just an awful defensive team overall, giving up 60 first-half points to the Nuggets. Golden State has a ton of talent and it’s only a matter of time before the group starts to gel and come together. I think we’ll see a marked improvement this evening, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-16 | Celtics -3 v. Bulls | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* CASH BOMB is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST). Boston comes in off a confidence building 122-117 win over the Nets last night and will look to keep the momentum rolling against the re-tooled Bulls. Rajon Rondo, Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler lead the way in Chicago and suffice it to say, I think the team is going to struggle this year. Rondo and Wade would be great “sixth men” in my opinion, but I have a hard time seeing these two taking on a long-term leadership role throughout the season without sustaining some sort of injury. Each has been plagued by knee and back problems and obviously neither of them is getting any younger. In all, Chicago starts out with 14 players (one short of the NBA maximum) and will have eight new guys making their Bulls regular-season debut tonight. Celtics’ guard Isaiah Thomas will be looking to push the pace and test the Bulls’ veterans legs, last night he had 25 points and nine assists, while Jae Crowder added 21. Boston didn’t make too many moves in the offseason, it’s coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but it did add four-time NBA All-Star Al Horford to the mix, he put in 11 points, dished out six assists and grabbed five boards on Wednesday. Also note that the C’s posted 36 assists on 48 baskets, the most assists by a team in an NBA opener since 2001. It’s the first week of the new season, so any concerns about fatigue on the second day of the back-to-back are negated. I think Boston’s depth will prove to be too much for a Chicago team which will need some time to find its identity. Play on the Celtics. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-16 | Wolves +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Memphis will look to build off last year’s playoff run, while Minnesota is hoping it can finally take the next step this year and enjoy a little postseason action. Two teams with big expectations collide on Opening Night, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the extremely talented visitors. Memphis struggled down the stretch last year after major injuries to big man Marc Gasol and to Mike Conley Jr. Conversely, the Wolves only got better as the season progressed as the younger players finally started to mature and feel more comfortable playing with each other. The sky is truly the limit with Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony Towns and Zach Lavine. Minneosta has a new coach in former Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau. In my opinion, Thibodeau is one of the best coach’s in the league and it’s a huge bonus for true Timberwovles fans (note that Thibodeau never had a losing season with the Bulls in five years as bench boss). While it was just preseason action, it’s still significant to note that these team’s played just last week and the Wolves would come away with the 101-94 victory. Grab as many points as you can, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-16 | Spurs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 129-100 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Opening Night CASH BOMB is the San Antonio Spurs (10:30 EST). In what could very likely be a preview of the Western Conference Finals, I think the talented and experienced Spurs keep this one close enough to at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they’ve been affored on Opening Night. The pressure is on Golden State and I think it’s going to have some chemistry issues to open the year. San Antonio for the most part though returns the same team from last season, other than the addition of veteran Pau Gasol, who should easily acclimate himself into the Spurs’ deep rotation. The Warriors now have Kevin Durant, but the Spurs have defensive specialist Kawhi Leonard, who I think will be big for the visitors this evening. While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I absolutely am expecting this one to come down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on San Antonio. Good luck…Larry |
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06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 60 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). I have played the Cavaliers in back-to-back games and think LeBron James and company can take this one down to the wire. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. In Game 5 I said this about Cleveland: I made a play on this game before the suspension to Draymond Green and have a favorable +7 line, but regardless, I still love Cleveland in this spot and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I feel that at the very least the visitors will keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Warriors needed an NBA Finals record 17 three-pointers to secure the Game 4 victory, but I think they’ll be hard pressed to match that feat without Green in the lineup. Of course, it’s Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson which shoot from range, but Green is the center of the Warriors offense and defense. The Warriors are a much different team without their “do it all” swingman in the line-up and I have a hard time seeing Golden State getting as many open looks as it had in Game 4 without Green in the mix. It’s do or die for Cleveland, I think the visitors will be the more desperate team tonight. I’m not writing LeBron James and company off yet and think “The King” has at least one big game left in him, play on the Cavaliers. In Game 6 I said this: Green is back in Game 6 and has already been running his mouth, saying that the Warriors would have already won the championship had he played in Game 5. Whether or not that’s true we’ll never know, but what can’t be denied is that the Cavaliers looked great in that contest getting 40 points from LeBron James and 40 points from Kyrie Irving. With big man Andrew Bogut lost for the season because of a knee injury, Cleveland has a big advantage in the paint now. Golden State is very beatable. It’s super stars have for the most part struggled in this series and I think that trend continues here. Pack your bags everyone, we’re headed back to the West Coast for an epic Game 7 showdown! Lay the points. I think the Bogut injury is significant and expect Tristan Thompson to be a central figure for the visitors in this one. The Warriors have no answer for James, but with so much of the home side’s focus on The King, don’t be surprised to see Irving have a big performance this evening. For the most part Curry and Thompson have been no-shows in the Finals and I think that trend continues here. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. I made a play on the Cavaliers in Game 5 and if you didn’t get a chance to read that analysis, it’s worth a look right now: I made a play on this game before the suspension to Draymond Green and have a favorable +7 line, but regardless, I still love Cleveland in this spot and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I feel that at the very least the visitors will keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Warriors needed an NBA Finals record 17 three-pointers to secure the Game 4 victory, but I think they’ll be hard pressed to match that feat without Green in the lineup. Of course, it’s Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson which shoot from range, but Green is the center of the Warriors offense and defense. The Warriors are a much different team without their “do it all” swingman in the line-up and I have a hard time seeing Golden State getting as many open looks as it had in Game 4 without Green in the mix. It’s do or die for Cleveland, I think the visitors will be the more desperate team tonight. I’m not writing LeBron James and company off yet and think “The King” has at least one big game left in him, play on the Cavaliers. Green is back in Game 6 and has already been running his mouth, saying that the Warriors would have already won the championship had he played in Game 5. Whether or not that’s true we’ll never know, but what can’t be denied is that the Cavaliers looked great in that contest getting 40 points from LeBron James and 40 points from Kyrie Irving. With big man Andrew Bogut lost for the season because of a knee injury, Cleveland has a big advantage in the paint now. Golden State is very beatable. It’s super stars have for the most part struggled in this series and I think that trend continues here. Pack your bags everyone, we’re headed back to the West Coast for an epic Game 7 showdown! Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 57 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I made a play on this game before the suspension to Draymond Green and have a favorable +7 line, but regardless, I still love Cleveland in this spot and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I feel that at the very least the visitors will keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Warriors needed an NBA Finals record 17 three-pointers to secure the Game 4 victory, but I think they’ll be hard pressed to match that feat without Green in the lineup. Of course, it’s Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson which shoot from range, but Green is the center of the Warriors offense and defense. The Warriors are a much different team without their “do it all” swingman in the line-up and I have a hard time seeing Golden State getting as many open looks as it had in Game 4 without Green in the mix. It’s do or die for Cleveland, I think the visitors will be the more desperate team tonight. I’m not writing LeBron James and company off yet and think “The King” has at least one big game left in him, play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I had the Cavaliers in Game 3 and if you didn’t get to read that analysis, I think it’s worth doing so now as for the most part, the logic and reasoning behind that selection also directly applies to this one: I played Cleveland in the first two games and obviously came up short, but in this do-or-die scenario and with the series shifted to friendlier confines, I expect the Cavaliers to finally show up and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Golden State has actually struggled in this spot for bettors, going 6-10 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games and just 1-3 ATS as a road fav of 3 points or less (I have the Cavaliers +1). The Cavs have gone 6-4 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games and are 4-2 ATS in their last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. For the most part I think this is a great situational play, the Warriors have been far from perfect during the postseason and if ever they were to have a letdown, this is the game. Conversely, for LeBron James and the Cavaliers, another loss would clearly be viewed as a colossal disappiontment. I’m not giving up on Cleveland and think James will “will” his team to the victory and back into this series. Home floor is once again going to prove pivotal in Game 4. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry have struggled in the Finals, give credit where credit is due. Cleveland elected to shut down the two shooters and let the rest of the Warriors beat them, and that’s what happened in the first two games. The Cavs stuck to their game-plan in Game 3, but this time the Cleveland bench and role players finally decided to show up. With the initital adrenalin gone from opening the new series, one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank for Curry right now, or how bad his nagging injuries reall are? It’s “do-or-die” once again for the home side, a 3-1 deficit with the series shifting back to Oakland would obviously be the proverbial nail in the coffin for the Cavs. I like James and company to hold serve on their home floor and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. I played Cleveland in the first two games and obviously came up short, but in this do-or-die scenario and with the series shifted to friendlier confines, I expect the Cavaliers to finally show up and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Golden State has actually struggled in this spot for bettors, going 6-10 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games and just 1-3 ATS as a road fav of 3 points or less (I have the Cavaliers +1). The Cavs have gone 6-4 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games and are 4-2 ATS in their last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. For the most part I think this is a great situational play, the Warriors have been far from perfect during the postseason and if ever they were to have a letdown, this is the game. Conversely, for LeBron James and the Cavaliers, another loss would clearly be viewed as a colossal disappiontment. I’m not giving up on Cleveland and think James will “will” his team to the victory and back into this series. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -103 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). The “Splash Brothers” had an “off” night and the Warriors still cruised to a 104-89 win in Game 1. LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving all had decent games, but the differene was that Golden State’s bench outscored the Cavs’ role players by a whopping 45-10. You’ll hear many pundits say that there’s “no way” that Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry will both have another “off” night at the same time, which is probably true. But I’d argue that it’s next to impossible to think that the Cleveland bench will have back-to-back “clunkers” as well. The Cavs rolled through the Eastern Conference in 12 games. After back-to-back losses in Toronto in the Conference Finals, Cleveland made adjustments and then won Game’s 5 and 6 handily, including on the road. Thompson and Curry will likely be better in this game, but I think James, Irving, Love and the rest of the Cavaliers will also be a whole lot better. In what will prove to be a much more competitive affair than what we saw in Game 1, I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors surged their way to the NBA title in 2015 and then came out and set the record for most wins in a regular season with 73 this year. But now the magic has seemingly run out for Golden State, which I think will have no answer for Thunder’ stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook this evening. One of the Warriors’ biggest strengths has been their depth, but OKC’s role players and bench have for the most part had the upper-hand in this series and I think they’ll once again outplay their counterparts this evening. The Thunder have done an excellent job in defending the perimeter as both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have looked extremely average in this series and especially on the road, where they would combine for just 5 of 21 from 3-point range in game’s 3 and 4. I’ll point out that the Warriors are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-4 ATS their last four following a SU victory, while the Thunder are 6-1 ATS their last seven following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous outing. Oklahoma City won game’s 3 and 4 by a combined 52 points and all signs point to the Thunder closing out this series in style. Play on Oklahoma City. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 35 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). Cleveland comes in with a ton of momentum after throttling Toronto 116-78 in Game 5. The Cavaliers will be looking to set the tone early after dropping Game’s 3 and 4 North of the border, so expect the visitors to push the pace of this one early. A slow start against the boisterous home crowd would once again likely be too much for the Cavs to climb out of. The Cavaliers’ 38 point win on Wednesday was the team’s largest margin of victory in the postseason ever. Cleveland looked dominant across the board, outrebounding the Raptors 48-27 and outscoring them 46-32 in the paint. The Cavs also had the 21-14 advantage in fast break points. Kevin Love had a big bounce back performance with 25 points, while Lebron James contributed 23, not even playing in the fourth quarter at all. This is as far as the Raptors orginization has ever made it and while a loss today would be a disappointment, the team is clearly playing with “house money” at this point of the season. The future is bright for the young Raptors, but note that they’re a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight after allowing their opponent to score 100 points or more in their previous game. I think the “better” team finds a way to get the job done, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). If ever the Thunder were going to have a “letdown,” this is it. Clearly the team has to be feeling pretty good about itself, vindicated in fact. With a 3-1 series lead and with the full knowledge that they have three more games in which to try and seal the deal, including Game 6 back at home, I believe the visitors will in fact stumble here. Stephen Curry might be playing through an injury right now, but if he’s on the floor, his health can not be used an excuse. If there is one team that can dig itself out of this hole and push this series to a Game 7, it’s obviously Curry and the Warriors. It’s hard to say anything negative about OKC right now, but as I stated off the top, I simply feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot. Oklahoma City took Game 1 and then took its foot off the gas in Game 2, only to then lay the hammer down again in Game 3. This is definitely a similar situation. I’ll also point out that the Thunder are just 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Golden State is 8-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. I’m banking on the Warriors finally showing up and playing like the 73 win team that they are, play on Golden State. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR is the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). Would the real Golden State Warriors please stand up? Oklahoma City shocked the Warriors with a Game 1 victory in the Western Conference Finals, before Golden State dominated Game 2. The Warriors were 2.5 point favorites in Game 3, but the Thunder would jump out to an early insurmountable lead and pulled away for the convincing 133-105 upset to take a 2-1 series lead. The postseason is all about making adjustments from game to game (just look at the Raptors!) and I think it’s important to point out that the Warriors haven’t lost back-to-back games all season. Draymond Green will not be suspended, which is obviously good news for the Warriors. Stephen Curry finished with 24 points on 3 of 11 shooting from behind the arc in Game 3, while Klay Thompson had just 18 points on 2 of 8 from the outside. It’s rare that these two sharp-shooters are both “off” from range on the same night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much better performance from the Warriors’ guards in Game 4. Green and the rest of Golden State though were terrible from the field and the team would also uncharacteristically commit 14 turnovers. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook continue to lead the charge for OKC, they finished with 33 and 30 points respectively. I’ll point out though that the Thunder are just 2-5 ATS this season after scoring more than 125 points in their previous outing, while the Warriors are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following an ATS loss and 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 following a SU loss of ten points or more. The stage is set for the defending champs to respond, I believe coach Steve Kerr will make the necessary adjustments and this series will be knotted up at 2-2 as we head back to the coast for Game 5 Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -102 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). The Raptors were bound to play a good game at one point in the playoffs and that finally happened in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Toronto would ride the wave of emotion from the home town crowd for the 99-84 victory. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry had their best efforts of the postseason. Previous to that though, it had been a grind for the Raptors, who advanced through two seven-game series to reach this point. Cleveland steam-rolled its way through the first two rounds in four games apiece and took the first two of this series by a combined 50 points. If ever Toronto was going to win a game in this series, it was Game 3 and if ever the Cavs were going to finally have a letdown, clearly Game 3 was the perfect spot as well. But with that one out of the way, I think Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who went a combined 4 for 28 in Game 3, return to form and the high-flying Cavs, which have averaged 106 points in the postseason, resume their march to the Finals. Despite the win, note that the Raptors have averaged just 94 PPG in the playoffs. Fnally I’ll point out out that Cleveland is 12-9 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Toronto is just 5-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. I’m not reading too much into one good game by Toronto and one poor one from the Cavaliers and look for the “better” team to respond this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-16 | Warriors -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 105-133 | Loss | -106 | 81 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (8:00 EST). OKC shocked the nation with its win over the Warriors in Game 1, but Golden State calmly took care of business in the 118-91 Game 2 bounce back. I expect the defending champs to handle the Thunder again this evening. The Warriors looked great in the second half of Game 2 and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here, as they’d go on to outscore Oklahoma City 61-42 after the break. Not surprisingly, MVP Stephen Curry led the way with 15 of his 28 points. The Warriors’ incredible depth was on full display in that one as the bench would go on to score 50 points in the victory. Kevin Durant was once again a bright spot for the Thunder in the setback, he finished with 29 points, but would go on to commit eight turnovers. Russell Westbrook was just 5 of 12 from the field for 16 points and his team would go on to combine for 16 total turnovers which would lead to 23 points for Golden State. OKC’s bench was dramatically outplayed, as Durant and Westbrook would be the only players to score in double-figures. Klay Thompson had a rare “off” night for the Warriors in Game 2 (finishing with 15 points), but we should expect the all-star to bounce back nicely here. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (9:05 EST). I had the Warriors in Game 1 and we obviously came up short after the Thunder set the early tone and upset the defending champs outright. But I think Golden State responds in Game 2 and believe the Thunder head home completely satisfied with having already earned the split. Despite the setback, Golden State is the superior offensive team, as the Thunder average 106.1 points on 46.1 percent shooting, while the Warriors average 113.2 on 47.6 percent shooting. This is clearly Golden State’s biggest game of the year, losing both contests at home to open this series is likely to much for even the NBA’s most winningest team to climb out of the way the Thunder are playing right now. I’ll point out that Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while the Warriors are 9-2 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. Golden State is the deeper team and I think Steve Kerr and company will make the necessary adjustments to even up the series. I’m laying the points and expecting a wire-to-wire rout. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). Toronto scraped by Indiana in seven games and then had to do it again vs. Miami in Round 2. The Raptors have an injured starting center and their all star back court has been consistently inconsistent this postseason. Cleveland on the other hand is well rested and at 100% health. The oddsmakers think this is going to be a blowout and so do I as everything does certainly point to a lop-sided destruction in Game 1. The Cavaliers decimated their first two opponents in four games each. Cleveland is playing even better than expected to this point. Often rest will lead to rust, but in this case we think it will be a huge advantage for the Cavaliers, who will look to run the tired and injured Raptors off the court. Toronto is already playing with “house money,” as it’s advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history. Anything less than a championship will be considered an utter failure for the Cavaliers though. DeMarre Carroll was tasked in slowing down LeBrom James while with Atlanta last year and all “The King” did was score 121 points in a four-game sweep while nearly averaging a triple-double. With Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving by his side this season, all signs point to another blowout Game 1 and series victory. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). The Thunder defied the odds and knocked off the favored Spurs in the second round, but I think the momentum they created is gone. I’m expecting the defending champs to send a message to the remaining teams with a statement effort this evening. Golden State averages 114.9 points, while the Thunder post 110.2. No big surprise to learn that the Warriors won all four regular season meetings vs. Oklahoma City. San Antonio’s lack of depth was exposed by the upstart Thunder and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were able to overwhelm the plodding Spurs. Golden State is nothing like San Antonio though, it’s a team which can adapt to any style, run and gun, half court sets and which is adept in all departments defensively as well. I think the Warriors are going to be able to slow down Durant and Westbrook much more effectively. Role players stepped up for OKC vs. the Spurs, but I’d be shocked if the bench can be as productive in this series as it was in the last. And finally I’ll point out that Oklahoma City is a poor 1-3 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest, while Golden State is 4-2 ATS in the same position. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout in Game 1, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (3:35 EST). If you’re a conspiracy theorist, then you probably believe the NBA “wants” Dwayne Wade and the Heat to face LeBron James and the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. I am definitely not a conspiracy theorist, I just think Miami will beat Toronto because it’s the better and more experienced team. If you thought Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have struggled at times to find their stroke in this series, get ready to see more of the same this evening as I’m anticipating the Heat to once again blanket the Raptors’ All Stars. Goran Dragic was huge in Game 6, scoring 30 points and grabbing seven boards. Dwayne Wade added 22 points, six boards and five assists. Other contributors included Luol Deng with 12 points, while Joe Johnson chipped in 13. Miami looked sharp overall, committing just seven turnovers. Lowry poured in a playoff-high 36 points in Game 6, but DeRozan finished with 23 on 8 of 21 form the field. No other player for Toronto scored in double figures. The loss of of big man Jonas Valanciunas, who was dominating early in this series before going down with a sprained ankle, is now finally starting to catch up with the Raptors in my opinion. The Heat also lost their center when Hassan Whiteside got injured in the same game as Valanciunas, but have made a better adjustment to this point. This has been a highly competitve series, but note that Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a straight up win of more than ten points, while Toronto is just 1-4 ATS its last five in front of the home town crowd. Everything points to another nail-biter in Game 7, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (8:05 EST). I had the Raptors as a big 10* play in Game 5, but in Game 6 I’m going back the other way as I expect the Heat to defend their home floor and to push this series to a decisive Game 7. Toronto pulled away for a 99-91 victory in regulation in Game 5, led by 34 points from DeMar DeRozan. Kyle Lowry had 25 points, ten boards and six assists. I thought these two would have a bounce back effort after getting shut down in Game 4 and I was correct. The Raptors’ stars though have been consistently inconsistent this season and have been particularly ineffective on the road in this series. I think that trend continues tonight. It was an uncharacterisitc sloppy performance from the Heat, who shot 40 percent from the floor and who connected on only 6 of 21 from 3-point range while also committing 15 turnovers. Note though that Miami did win the rebounding battle, 44-39. I’ll also point out that Toronto is 0-3 ATS this year when leading in a playoff series, while Miami is 2-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Buckle up, we’re headed to a Game 7 in this matchup, play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-16 | Spurs -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). It’s do or die for the Spurs. San Antonio is sputtering as its role players and veterans have been outplayed by their counterparts. I believe we’ll see a clinical performance from the No. 2 seed in Game 6 and expect it to find a way to get the job done once the final horn sounds. San Antonio is averaging 102.3 points on 47.4 percent shooting in the post season and allowing just 90.7. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will be called upon to lead the team again, they are averaging 22.6 points and 22.3 points respectively. San Antonio is too experienced and well coached to be nervous in this situation and note that it’s won ten of its last 16 on the road. The Thunder have defied the odds and are on the cusp of their fourth Western Conference Finals since 2010. OKC averages 105.2 points and allows 97.8. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook lead the way with 26.4 and 25.3 points respectively. I’ll point out though that San Antonio is 8-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Oklahoma City is 0-2 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. I’m not ready to give up on Greg Popovich and the Spurs quite yet and believe there is still something left in the tank. Lay the points and buckle up for a Game 7. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-16 | Blazers +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). I had the Warriors in Game 4 as my GAME OF THE MONTH, but for Game 5 I’m going the other way as I think the hungry Blazers can keep this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. It’s do or die for Portland, which is averaging 103.4 points on 41.7 percent shooting, while allowing 105.8 points on 45 percent shooting in the playoffs. Damian Lillard has averaged 26.3 points and 6.2 assists, while CJ McCollum has chipped in 19.8 points and 3.2 boards. Golden State is averaging 113.1 points and allowing 100.7 and has been led by 26.6 points per game from Klay Thompson in the postseason, followed by 23.3 points and five assists from Stephen Curry. I’ll point out that Portland is 9-4 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State is just 12-13 ATS this season as a home fav of 11.5 points or more. I think the defending champs get caught looking ahead to the Western Conference finals, leaving the back door open just enough for Portland to sneak in through the down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Toronto Raptors (8:00 EST). Every game of this series has been a battle so far, but I think Toronto will finally break out and protect its home floor with a convincing effort. The Raptors will be especially hungry here after letting a seven-point lead with four minutes to play in the fourth quarter slip away. Amazingly Miami would win despite connecting on only 1 of 15 from 3-point range. Toronto’s center Jonas Valanciunas has been ruled out for the remainder of this series with a sprained ankle and Miami is once again expected to be without the services of big man Hassan Whiteside to injury (note that if he does play, he’s not going to be 100%). Dwayne Wade carried the load for the Heat in Game 4 with 30 points, but one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank for the 34-year old. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry continue to struggle, but the Raptors got a massive contribution from Bismack Biyombo with 13 points and 13 boards (also note that Terrence Ross and Corey Joseph also stepped up with 14 points apiece off the bench). I’ll point out that Miami is just 2-3 ATS in its last five when tied in a playoff series, while Toronto is 3-2 ATS in the same position. No overtime today, the pressure is on the No. 2 seed to perform and I’m expecting it to step up and answer the call, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). This series has come down to three games and the Spurs obviously have the advantage with two of them being played in the Lone Star State. Oklahoma City rallied in the fourth quarter in Game 4 behind 41 points from Kevin Durant, but one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank after that effort. Russell Westbrook has been very consistent, but the team has gotten larger than expected production from Dion Walters and Steven Adams. San Antonio went into the break with a nine point lead in Game 4, but fell apart in the second half. The Spurs went cold from behind the arc, going just 2 of 12 overall. There’s no reason not to think that the Spurs won’t return to form today, note that they shot 43.9 percent from 3-point range over the first three games. I’ll also point out that San Antonio is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 following a SU loss, while OKC is 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. I’ve played the Spurs in every game so far and obviously feel they’re going to take this series, but will admit I’m a little surprised at how well the Thunders’ role players are performing right now. We knew that Durant and Westbrook would be fantastic, but the difference between these teams was supposed to be San Antonio’s incredible depth. So far that hasn’t been the case, but I think that changes tonight. The Spurs are deep and they are very well coached and I believe they’ll ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd and bounce back after a rare disappointing performance. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). Whether Stephen Curry plays in Game 4 or not, I like the Warriors to bounce back after their first loss in the series. Golden State swingman Draymond Green has actually guaranteed a victory. Green would hit eight 3-pointers, score 37 points and nearly post the triple-double with nine boards and eight assists: “I think this was my worst game of the series,” Green said. "[I] had 37 [points], nine [rebounds], eight [assists], and two turnovers. All that's cute. But I didn't do what I do for this team. I didn't lead my troops tonight.” It’s time to go back to work for Green and company. And with or without Curry in the lineup, it’s hard to imagine Golden State playing any worse than it did defensively in Game 3. The Warriors were one of the top defensive teams in the regular season, so giving up 120 points is obviously uncharacteristic to say the least. And it wasn’t as if Golden State played horribly on the offensive end either, scoring 108 points on 47 percent shooting and actually out assisting Portland 29-19. The Warriors also committed an uncharacterisitc 12 turnovers, which led to 14 points for the Blazers. I’ll point out that Golden State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-2 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Portland is just 22-29 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more. I think the young Blazers are set up for a big letdown here and that the defending champs are poised to take care of business, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-16 | Spurs -1 v. Thunder | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST). I’ve picked the Spurs in all three games so far in this series and am obviously 2-1. I think San Antonio keeps the foot on the gas in Game 4 and finds a way to get the job done once again. Look for the Spurs to continue attacking through big man LaMarcus Alrdridge who finished with 24 points on 8 of 21 shooting in Game 3’s 100-96 victory. Aldridge had 79 points on 75 percent shooting over the first two games. San Antonio was sharp from behind the arc in Game 3, connecting on ten of 19 from distance. Note that the Spurs are hitting 45.8 percent from behind the arc in the postseason, which is well above their 37.5 percent mark for the season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a serious duo to handle for any team, but two-time NBA defensive player of the year Kawhi Leonard continues to get the job done on both ends of the court for the Spurs as well. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last six when leading in a playoff series, while OKC is just 6-7 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. The talent level beyond Durant and Westbrook drops off dramatically for the Thunder, clearly the Spurs’ depth is a big strength and I believe it will once again prove to be the difference maker today. Play on San Antonio. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-16 | Warriors -3 v. Blazers | Top | 108-120 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (8:35 EST). As Damian Lillard goes, so go the the Portland Trailblazers. If the All Star isn’t performing at an All Star level, then Portland usually struggles. Lillard was suffering with a chest cold in Game 1 of this second round series, so was not at 100%. He’d then suffer a brutal fourth-quarter dry spell in Game 2, which allowed the Warriors to come from behind to steal it. Whatever momentum or confidence the Blazers had after their series opening win over the Clippers is gone. And if you think home court advantage is signficant at this point of the season, then just ask the Atlanta Hawks what they think about that. With or without Stephen Curry in the line-up, the Warriors are the better and deeper team. Their experience is evident as well. I’ll also point out that Golden State is 3-1 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest, while Portland is just 2-3 ATS in the same position. The wind is out of the Blazers’ sails and it’s full steam ahead for the defending champs, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Toronto Raptors (5:05 EST). This has been a tight series, both opening games went to OT. Knotted at 1-1, I think Game 3 will also come down to the wire and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end ecommend grabbing as many points as you can. Miami is 13-2 at home since March, but one of those losses came in the first round to Charlotte. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry were once again pretty mediocre in Game 2 for Toronto. Lowry’s struggles continue, but I think a change in venue, away from the local media and scrutiny, will help the All Star backcourt. Both teams have been equally as “sloppy” in this series though, the Heat committed 20 turnovers in Game 1 and had 21 in Game 2. A lot has been made about Miami center Hassan Whiteside, but it’s been Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas who has likely been the best big man on the floor, if not the best overall player so far in this series (note that the 7-foot 225-pound Valanciunas has shot 68 percent in the two games, averaging 19.5 points and 13 boards). Both teams are tired, many key players on each side have logged significant minutes already to open the playoffs. Everything points to another nail-biter, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-16 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST). I had a play on San Antonio in Game 1 and took the Spurs again in Game 2. I’m 1-1 so far in this series and for Game 3, I’m back on San Antonio as I expect the Spurs to recover from their “brain fart” and to take control of this series with a convincing full four quarter effort. Oklahoma City nearly blew a four-point lead in the final 15 seconds before holding on for a 98-97 win on Monday and the league would then go on to announce the next day that there were five incorrect non-calls in that closing stretch. LaMarcus Aldridge was a bright spot once again for the Spurs, he had 41 points, including going 10 of 10 from the charity stripe. The Thunder have won eight of nine at home and 11 of their last 13 in Oklahoma City vs. the Spurs, including playoffs. Most recently the Thunder would beat San Antonio 111-92 on March 26th, but note that all of the Spurs’ top players were sitting. I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the Thunder have struggled in for bettors, going just 3-4 ATS in their last seven when tied in a playoff series, while San Antonio has done spectacularly in this position, going 6-2 ATS its last eight when tied in a playoff series. The Spurs’ incredible depth proves to be the difference today, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have so far struggled for Toronto in the playoffs. After rolling to the second best record in the East, the Raptors would need seven games to dispatch No. 7 seeded Indiana in the first round. Miami’s backcourt of Goran Dragic and Dwayne Wade dramatically outplayed their counterparts in Game 1. Lowry especially has struggled with his shot, but I’m expecting the All Star to bounce back in fine form today and for Toronto to fight tooth and nail to secure the Game 2 victory. The Raptors dominated the regular season series, after falling 96-76 in Miami back on November 8th, Toronto would then go on to win and cover in the final three. I think coach Dwayne Casey will make the necessary adjustments to counter Miami, something he did very well in their opening series win over the Pacers. I’ll also point out that from an ATS stand-point, they don’t get too much stronger than this as the Heat are just 3-7 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 1-2 ATS this season when leading in a playoff series, while Toronto is 10-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. In what is now their biggest game of the season, I look for the Raptors to jump out to an early lead and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference SIDE OF THE MONTH is the Atlanta Hawks. I played the under in Game 1, but turn my attention away from the total in Game 2 and think that the Hawks are the way to go tonight. Atlanta looked flat-footed to begin the series and it was a key factor in helping the total stay below the posted number in Game 1. The Hawks though finally got it together in the fourth quarter, they’d overcome an 18 point deficit to get to within two points of the Cavs, only to then fade away in the final minutes and eventually lose by 11. I think with some minor adjustments, Atlanta has a real shot at pulling off an outright upset tonight, at the very least I expect it to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Despite throwing everything they had at him, LeBron James would still post 25 points, nine assists, seven boards and five steals. Hawks’ guard Dennis Schroder though would hit five 3-pointers and score 27 points overall, which is obviously a major concern for the Cavs defense moving forward as Schroder is now a legitimate scoring threat. I’ll point out that Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last six when trailing in a playoff series, while Cleveland is just 14-20 ATS this season following a victory by ten points or more. Expect the Hawks to be much more assertive from the opening tip and for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-16 | Blazers +10 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR is the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). I had a play on the Warriors in Game 1. I liked Golden state for a few different reasons, but mainly thought that the quick turn-around after its series clinching victory over the Clippers would be too much for Portland to overcome. And it was. But with a day off to adjust and re-focus on the task at hand, I think the visitors will keep this one a lot closer the second time around. What do the Blazers have to lose here? It’s do or die for Portland, it can obviously ill afford to drop any games in this series let alone being in an 0-2 hole. Beating the Clippers without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is one thing, beating the Warriors without Stephen Curry is quite another. One thing we don’t have to worry about though is the effort that the Blazers will be giving in Game 2. And Portland will have seen what the Thunder did last night in San Antonio and be looking to pull off the similar outright upset of its own. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum missed 30 of their 43 shots from the field in Sunday’s loss, but I think they’ll rebound fine here. The Warriors are a very deep team and the fact that they continue to roll with leader Stephen Curry sidelined with injury is testament to that depth. With Curry in the line-up, Golden State is the best team in the league. Without Curry in the line-up, the Warriors are a good team, but not great. I think Portland has a shot at pulling off the upset today, but in the end will recommend to grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7.5 | Top | 98-97 | Loss | -101 | 35 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). I had a pick on the Spurs in Game 1 and if you didn’t get a chance to see that analysis, I believe it’s worth a quick read today, as all of the logic and reasoning behind that selection also directly applies to my Game 2 play on San Antonio: It’s Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard. A four-time scoring champion vs. a do-it-on-both ends two-time reigning defensive player of the year. But beyond Durant and side kick Russell Westbrook, who does Oklahoma City have to rely on? San Antonio enjoys a massive skill advantage in its starting five and on its bench and I think this talent discrepancy will prove to be the difference in Game 1 and in this series. Besides Leonard, the Spurs also have veteran’s Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who are now also joined by big man LaMarcus Aldridge who averaged 18 points and 8.5 board this year and who allowed Duncan to rest throughout the regular season. The Spurs also have the coaching advantage, Gregg Popovich is a five-time NBA champion and arguably one of the most successful of all time, while OKC’s Billy Donovan just won the first playoff series of his career in his first year in the league. It’s true that OKC scored 112 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting against the Mavericks in its first round, but San Antonio would hold the Grizzlies to 81 PPG on 39.4 percent shooting in its first round sweep. The Spurs’ defenisve specialists will be able to key on Westbrook and Durant and let the rest of the Thunder beat them, which as we’ve already touched upon will be next to impossible for the “thin” visitors to accomplish. I’ll point out that Oklahoma City was just 1-2 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while San Antonio was 3-1 ATS in the same position. Too much Leonard, too much Aldridge and too much Popovich, play on the Spurs. I’m expecting another beatdown today, the last thing San Antonio can do is give the Thunder any hope as the series shifts to Oklahoma City. Popovich would love nothing more than to sweep this second round series as well so as to have as much time as possible to prepare for the Warriors. Look for San Antonio to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn sounds. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -8 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (3:30 EST). Stephen Curry won’t be playing tonight, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. It’s time for the rest of the defending champions to stand up and win this series without their leader and that’s exactly what I expect to happen, both in Game 1 and in this second round matchup. Golden State played most of its opening round series without Curry in the line-up and still managed to send the Rockets packing in five games. I think the Blazers are likely a bit shocked to even be in the second round, a team which no one gave any shot to all year long and which fought back from a 2-0 deficit to take advantage of an ailing Clippers team in the first round, now sees a quick turn-around to face the Warriors on the road. Portland was 1-3 against Golden State in the regular season, which is obviously pretty good considering that it lost only nine games all year. Note though that Damian Lillard would explode for 51 points in that one and I simply don’t see lightning striking twice, the Warriors will be ready to body up on the Blazers’ explosive super star and try to make the rest of his team beat them. The Warriors rolled over Houston by closing the series with 27 and 33 point victories and I have a hard time seeing the exhausted visiting side matching pace in the opener of this series. This is just a bad spot for Portland, Golden State is rested and ready to make a statement. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NBA Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
01-26-17 | Pacers +4 v. Wolves | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
01-23-17 | Thunder +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +12 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
01-21-17 | Bucks v. Heat -1 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
01-18-17 | Raptors -6 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
01-17-17 | Raptors v. Nets +11 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
01-16-17 | Cavs +8 v. Warriors | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Cavs -6 v. Kings | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Warriors v. Kings +10.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Jazz +6 v. Raptors | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Mavs +18 v. Warriors | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
12-28-16 | Raptors v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-121 | Push | 0 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
12-26-16 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
12-23-16 | Hawks +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
12-21-16 | Rockets v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
12-17-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -13 | Top | 90-135 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Wolves +7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Knicks v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Nets v. Spurs -14 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Kings -3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-89 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Wizards +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Thunder +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
11-23-16 | Raptors +3 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Jazz +5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Blazers +4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
11-15-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Heat +11 v. Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
11-12-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Rockets +7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
11-07-16 | Magic v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
11-04-16 | Warriors v. Lakers +10.5 | Top | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
11-03-16 | Pacers -3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
11-01-16 | Warriors -7 v. Blazers | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Kings v. Hawks -7 | Top | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Warriors -11 v. Suns | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10-29-16 | Wolves +1 v. Kings | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
10-28-16 | Warriors -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10-27-16 | Celtics -3 v. Bulls | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10-26-16 | Wolves +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
10-25-16 | Spurs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 129-100 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 60 h 26 m | Show |
06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
06-13-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 57 h 20 m | Show |
06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 59 m | Show |
06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -103 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 50 m | Show |
05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 35 h 6 m | Show |
05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -102 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
05-22-16 | Warriors -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 105-133 | Loss | -106 | 81 h 5 m | Show |
05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 42 m | Show |
05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 26 m | Show |
05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
05-12-16 | Spurs -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
05-11-16 | Blazers +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show |
05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
05-09-16 | Warriors -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
05-08-16 | Spurs -1 v. Thunder | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
05-07-16 | Warriors -3 v. Blazers | Top | 108-120 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
05-07-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
05-06-16 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
05-03-16 | Blazers +10 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
05-02-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7.5 | Top | 98-97 | Loss | -101 | 35 h 60 m | Show |
05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -8 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |