Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season. This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada! Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | UCLA v. Arizona -6 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET. Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14). UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win. Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD. This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a row. Wildcats roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET. The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog). East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against). Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET. California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings. ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts. Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards! ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expect a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and the Midshipmen and after a win over Holy Cross, Navy rolled over East Carolina 42-10 in its second game of the season. The schedule maker has 'eased' 2-0 Navy into the 2019 season, as the Midshipmen opened at home vs Holy Cross, had a week off and then beat East Carolina. Navy again had a week off and now it's the team's conference road opener at 3-0 Memphis, which is playing its AAC opener. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowl but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011.Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Navy QB Malcolm Perry is a dangerous 'weapon' in Navy's option offense. He showed his evolution as a passer by becoming the first Navy QB since 2010 to rush and pass for at least 150 yards in the same game while accounting for six TDs vs East Carolina (156 rush yards with 4 TDs / 151 passing yards with 2 TDs). He's backed by a group of RBs well-schooled in the team's triple-option, as Navy is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 371.5 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). Sure, the opponents have only been Holy Cross and ECU, but the defense has allowed only 8.5 PPG (2nd) on 227.0 YPG (4th) Memphis was hardly impressive in its 15-10 season-opening home win over Ole Miss plus a 55-24 home win over Southern and a 42-6 road win at South Alabama are nice but this will be a tougher test. QB White showed little vs Ole Miss (172 yards with one INT), so his 546 yards with five TDs (just one INT) vs Southern and South Alabama still leaves a question mark. However, the Memphis D has been impressive, allowing 13.3 PPG (15th) on 226.3 YPG (3rd0. Many will find this stat a surprise (I did), as Memphis' 48 wins since 2014 rank No. 13 in the FBS. However, these schools have met just FOUR times, all recently as AAC members. Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in those meetings and I'm predicting that its vaunted triple-option will control clock in this one. Yes, the Midshipmen haven’t won a road game since September of 2017 but Navy is 20-10 ATS as a road dog since 2009. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Year is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets are still mathematically 'alive' in the NL wild card chase but the fact is that the Mets enter their final seven contests with a 4 1/2-game deficit in the race for the second wild card in the National League. The scorching Brewers (86-70)completed a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4-3 Sunday win and are now 15-2 in their last 17 games to move into a virtual tie with the Nationals (85-79) for the top wild card.Catching either of those teams seems like a REAL stretch for the Mets. However, Sunday's win by the Mets (81-74) assured them of just their THIRD non-losing season this decade. Also, New York hit three HRs on Sunday to push the franchise record to 231 (note: in comparison, the Marlins have hit only 134 HRs). Staying with Miami, the 54-101 (.348) Marlins have been playing out the string for most of a second straight rebuilding season. Miami finished with the NL's worst record in 2018 (63-98, .391) and will do so again in 2019. Taking the mound for tonight's contest are two lefties, Miami's Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA) and New York's Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA). Smith had lost four straight decisions before getting a victory at Arizona last Tuesday, although he allowed four ERs in five innings. Smith opened the season allowing two ERs in EIGHT of his first nine starts (allowed just three ERs in the other one), posting a 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA (sad-sack Marlins were just 5-4). He's pretty much struggled the rest of the season pitching for the NL's worst team, as his ERA has risen almost two FULL runs to 4.24. The Mets counter with Matz, who is coming off an 'ugly' outing at Coors Field, allowing seven ERs in just four innings of a 9-4 loss. However, he had allowed just nine ERs over his previous seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA in 45.2 innings. Matz has struggled all season on the road (6.62 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / .2923 BAA) but here at Citi Field, the numbers are 1.94 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .225 BAA. Matz has had little trouble with the Marlins in his career (2.83 ERA in 11 starts) and the Mets have won 11 of 15 vs Miami in 2019. Note that the Mets have won 10 of Matz's 13 home starts in 2019, and just TWO of those 10 home wins have come by one run. The other eight have had a margin of victory of 4.4 RPG. Matz faces a Marlins lineup which ranks 29th in scoring (3.77 per), 26th in team BA (.240) and 30th in OPS (.671). Laying the 1 1/2 runs seems 'cheap!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, which has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death." The Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans but then were able to bully the New York Jets last Monday, 23-3. The Jets began the game already missing starting QB Sam Darnold and then his replacement, Trevor Simiean, went down with a season-ending injury. Mayfield threw for 325 yards with OBJ reeling in six passes for 161 yards, including an 89-yard TD. The Browns return home to host the defending NFC champs on Sunday night. The Rams are 2-0, winning 30-27 at Carolina, before beating the Saints 27-9 last Sunday at home, in what was billed as New Orleans "payback game" from last year's NFC championship game. Jared Goff is off to a modest start (62.7% & 469 yards with two TDs and one INT) and it could be a concern that he's had just one TD (or none) in NINE of his last 10 games (including last year's postseason). However, the good news is that WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and leading the team with 12 receptions for 166 yards. Fellow WRs Woods has 10 catches and Cooks has just five but he's averaging 22.6 per reception. RB Todd Gurley also seems to have put his late-season knee issues of 2018 behind him. Gurley has 160 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) plus backup Malcolm Brown has 90 yards (5.3 YPC & 2 TDs), as the Rams attempt to lessen the load on Gurley. Gurley has insisted his knee is fine and he's ready for any workload. We'll see. Mayfield had a nice game against the sad-sack and depleted Jets but threw three INTs and posted a 64.0 QB rating against the defensively solid Titans. The criticism has been that Mayfield has been guilty of holding onto the ball too long and not taking advantage of receivers being open while trying to complete long passes. Chubb is clearly a solid RB (137 yards / 3.9 YPC but not yet a star (if ever?). Of course, OBJ is a talent but with him, one never knows. The question here will be, is Mayfield up to the task of playing well against the highly-coordinated LA defense, led by defensive guru, Wade Phillips? It's said that the Rams' offense has yet to "get it together" but let me note that LA has scored 30 and 27 points the first two weeks. The Rams opened last year 8-0 (and 10-1) plus since McVay has taken over, the Rams are 14-3 SU on the road. Not much of a number to 'cover' here, so the Rams it is! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6.5 v. Bucs | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET. The 0-2 NY Giants head to Tampa to take on the 1-1 Bucs this Sunday but Eli Manning will NOT be the Giants staring QB come kickoff. Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has been New York's starting QB since the 10th game of 2004, Manning's rookie season.He has started all but ONE game for the Giants since the start of the 2005 season but is 8-25 over the past three years.Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but it's understandable that the Giants are making a change at the NFL's most important position. Daniel Jones was drafted in the first round with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He'll square off against Jameis Winston, who was drafted as the first overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Giants are averaging 420.0 YPG (6th) but have not turned those yards into points, averaging only 15.5 PPG (27th). The first order of business for the 6-5 rookie from Duke will be to do just that.Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns during some impressive preseason play. He has one of the NFL's most versatile RBs in the NFL to help out, as Saquon Barkley ranks second in the NFL with 227 rushing yards and owns an eye-popping 7.8 yards per attempt. TE Evan Engram was Eli's top target (17 catches / 1 TD) but it's great news that WR Sterling Shepard (190 catches his first three seasons with 14 TDs) has cleared the concussion protocol over the course of this week and avoided an injury designation on Friday. Bruce Arians is a highly-respected head coach and it will be interesting to see if he can "fix" Jameis Winston. Winston was awful in a Week 1 home loss to the 49ers (194 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a QB rating of 45.4). Two of his INTs were returned for TDs! That said, in Week 2 at Carolina (a 20-13 Bucs win), he played a mistake-free game with 208 yards, one TD and zero INTs, for a QB rating of 103.4). However, Winston's consistency is his inconsistency. He can be a turnover 'machine.' He's not getting much help from Tampa's running game so far in 2019, which is averaging 111.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC. Here's the bottom line. Winston's inconsistency has made the Bucs a very poor home favorite during Winston's tenure, checking in at 6-12 ATS since 2015. The Giants have won FOUR of the last five meetings in the regular season against Tampa Bay, including a 38-35 triumph at home last year in which Barkley ran for 142 yards and scored three times. Yes, the Giants went 8-24 SU in 2017 and 2018 but note that after losing and failing to cover at Dallas in Week 1 of 2018, the Giants finished the season with SEVEN straight covers as a road dog, before opening 2019 at Dallas in Week 1 of 2019 with a 35-17 loss (as a 7-point dog). Digging a little deeper, let me point out that since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog, with THREE of those ATS losses coming at Dallas. Eliminate the hated-Cowboys and the Giants are 11-2 ATS as road dogs against the rest of the league. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Kansas | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Va at 4:30 ET. Both West Va and Kansas began the 2019 season with new head coaches. Neal Brown took over at West Va, after leading Troy to three straight bowl wins from 2016-18 and a 31-8 overall record. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks, mired in a decade-long slump since Mark Mangino was allowed to 'quietly' resign after the 2009 season, hired Les Miles. Miles began his career at Oklahoma St but he made his name at LSU, taking the Tigers to 11 straight bowl games from 2005-2015, winning the BCS championship in 2007 and losing it in 2011. His record was 112-032 in that span but after a 2-2 start in 2016, was fired. Kansas signed him to a five-year contract last November. West Va opened the season with an uninspiring 20-13 home win over James Madison and then got blown out 38-7 at Missouri. However, behind Austin Kendall's 272 yards and three TD passes, the Mounrtaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a 7-point home dog. Brown has just three starters back from an offense that avergaed 40.3 PPG. QB Kendall is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma and three freshmen receivers helped infuse some much-needed life into the offense last Saturday, as Sam James caught nine passes for 155 yards (1 TD), Winston Wright had four catches and Ali Jennings had three catches, including a fourth-quarter TD. Brown used three first-time starters on the offensive line against North Carolina State. West Va entered the contest averaging an FBS-worst 1.1 YPC but ran for 173 yards (6.2 YPC)! "The Hat's" career at Kansas got started with a fortunate 24-17 home win over Indiana St (Jayhawks scored the go-ahead TD with just over two minutes left in the game). That unimpressive victory was followed by a shocking 12-7 home loss to Coastal Carolina. So what happened a week ago last Friday? Kansas won 48-24 at BC, as an 18 1/2-point underdog. Senior QB Carter Stanley (107 yards passing , two interceptions vs Coastal Carolina) rebounded from an interception on his first pass attempt against the Eagles by completing 12 straight and finishing 20-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. Kansas ran for 329 yards on 7.3 YPC. What's going on here? The win ended a 48-game road losing streak against Powe-5 schools for the Jayhawks. Can the Jayhawks actually move to 3-1 with a win here? Kansas entered 2019 with a 6-82 record in Big 12 play the last 10 years and last won its league-opener back in 2009, Mangino's last season with the team. Kansas has lost NINE straight conference openers since, and SEVEN of eight to West Va since it joined the Big 12. That includes FIVE straight losses to West Va by the scores of 51-13, 49-0, 48-21, 56-34 and 38-22. I was never much of a fan of "the Hat" and I'll side with Brown, whose Troy teams the last three seasons averaged between 30.7 and 33.7 PPG on offense, while allowing just 18.5-to-22.1 PPG on defense. This guy can coach and look for him to prove it at Morgantown before he's through. Kansas opened 2-1 in 2018 as well but finished 3-9. That BC game was a 'mirage!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET. Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them. 2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!" Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS. Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD. As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -2 | 28-20 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. California is off to its third consecutive 3-0 start and entered the AP top-25 last Sunday at No. 23. Cal has relied on an excellent defense to earn a season-opening win over UC-Davis, a 20-19 upset at then-No. 14 Washington and then another home win over North Texas last Saturday. 27-13 and 23-17 home wins over UC-Davis and North Texas are hardly impressive efforts but what is impressive is that Cal enters this contest in Oxford having allowed 23 points or less in 10 straight games. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. The Rebels D played well in the team's season opener but the offense was a 'dud' (173 total yards and 13 FDs) in a 15-10 loss at Memphis. However, Rich-Rod's new offense has averaged 35.5 points in back-to-back home wins over Arkansas and Southeastern Louisiana plus that ever-improving Ole Miss defense held both Arkansas and SE Louisiana to fewer than 70 yards rushing. Cal's D ranks 34th in scoring (16.3 PPG) and 43rd in total D (313.7 YPG) but while sophomore QB Chase Garbers may be 9-4 as a starter, he's completing only 52.9% of his passes for a modest 478 yards (Cal ranks 118th with 159.3 YPG through the air). RB Brown leads the way with 324 yards (5.0 YPC) for a solid rushing attack that averages 191.3 YPG (48th). However, I expect Cal's offense to have some problems here in Oxford, as the Bears come in averaging only 23.3 PPG (95th) on 350.7 YPG (100th). I noted earlier that Luke brought in Rich-Rod and Mike MacIntyre and these two former he coaches know Cal well having recently been head coaches at ASU and Colorado, respectively. In fact, the duo has won FIVE of its last six meetings vs Cal. Ole Miss QB Corral started four games last season but seems to be 'finding his footing' after a poor effort at Memphis ( 9 of 19 for 93 yards without a TD and one INT). He's completed 37 of 54 at home the last two games, throwing for 485 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Cal's running game has also perked up, rushing for 237 and 220 yards the last two Saturdays. RB Phillips has put together back-to-back 100 yards games (243 yards with three TDs), after gaining only 62 yards at Memphis. Is Cal really deserving of a top-25 ranking? We'll find out here but my 'bet' says the answer is N-O! This will be a 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff for Cal and the heat and humidity of Oxford will surely not help the Bears as the game wears on. Ole Miss hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since September of 2012, when Texas won 66-31. The Rebels are a PERFECT 17-0 SU vs non-conference opponents in Oxford since that defeat. I say the Rebels make it 18 in a row, here! Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-19 | Air Force +8.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. It would be more than fair to call Boise St the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late 1990s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncois opened the 2019 season unranked but their 3-0 start has them in the AP top-25 at No. 20. Boise St opened 2019 with a huge comeback win at FSU (trailed 31-13 in the second quarter but won, 36-31), before winning home games over Marshall (14-7) and FCS Portland St (45-10). Visiting Boise Friday night will be Air Force, fresh off its 30-23 (OT) win at Colorado last Saturday. Air Force is 2-0 and ranks second in the nation in rushing with 356.0 YPG. QB Donald Hammond has thrown just 12 passes but he should not be overlooked. The Air Force defense held Colgate to seven points on just 161 yards in its season opener but really impressed by allowing Colorado a modest 23 points on 325 yards last Saturday in Boulder. That's after the Buffs had scored 52 points on 475 yards vs Colorado St (in Denver) and 34 points on 464 yards in a home OT win over Nebraska. True freshman QB Hank Bachmeier had a HUGE game vs FSU (407 yards) but has averaged a more modest 260 YPG with three TDs and two INTs in his last two games. It's not good news that Boise lost its top-2 WRs from last year and that early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) left a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018. Head coach Harsin has used a "RB by committee" to open 2019. Mahone had 142 yards in the opener but just 73 yards in the last two games. Holmani had 103 yards vs Marshall but just 113 in Games 1 and 3. Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1,000-yard rusher might come to end. Boise's famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors have liked, as the Broncos are just 17-36-1 their last 53 games as a home favorite. As for Calhoun's Falcons, they are 11-3-1 as road dogs since 2015 (that's a 79% winning mark). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET. The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday. Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD. Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs won 8-2 over the Reds on Monday but got shut down by Sonny Gray last night (6.2 IP / 4 hits / 2 runs), as the Red beat them 4-2. Chicago had its five-game winning streak snapped and coupled with Milwaukee's win over the Padres, find themselves tied with the Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot. Both teams are 1 1/2 games back of Washington (current No. 1 wild card team) and TWO back of first-place St Louis in the NL Central. Cincinnati caps its nine-game road trip tonight, looking to go 5-4. However, the 71-81 Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention with Monday's 8-2 loss to the Cubs and another defeat would assure the club of its SIXTH consecutive losing season. Tonight's pitching matchup features Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA) and Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA). Mahle is hoping to solidify a spot in the 2020 starting rotation. He was placed on the injured list in mid-July with a 2-10 (4.93 ERA) record, as the Reds went 4-15 in his first 19 starts of the season (minus-$1,038 against the moneyline). He's 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Louisville (team is 1-2) but while he allowed four runs and eight hits (two HRs) in just 3.1 innings at Seattle last Thursday, the Reds would win that game, 11-5. Why is that significant? It marked the FIRST time the Reds have won one of Mahle's road starts in 2019. He's 0-8 with a 5.45 road ERA in 13 starts (team is 1-12). Lester has not had a disappointing season for Chicago in 2019 and earned one of the wilder victories in his career last Friday. He allowed four first-inning runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates but watched his teammates rally for five runs in the bottom half, of the inning. He left after five innings, having allowed 11 hits and seven runs (four earned) but with a 17-7 lead! Lester has had a rough go in 2019 but things have worked out well for the Cubs in his Wrigley starts The Cubs can't afford to let tonight's game slip away, facing Mahle, who has seen the Reds lose 12 of his 13 road starts. For all of Lester's woes in 2019, the Cubs are 11-4 in his 15 home starts and just ONE of those 11 team wins at home have come by one run. In the other 10, the average margin of victory has been 5.3 RPG. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 111 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs welcomed the Pirates to Wrigley Field over the weekend and were able to sweep the three-game series. Meanwhile, the Cards hosted the Brewers for a three-games series. St Louis won Friday's game 10-0 but Milwaukee was able to win Saturday and Sunday. When "all the dust had settled," St Louis sat atop the NL Central, two games up on the Cubs, with the Brewers sitting one game behind Chicago.The Cubs continue their final homstand of the season this week, as they welcome the Reds to Wrigley for a three-game series, before the Cards come in for a four-game series to end the week. Chicago will spend MLB's final week of the regular season with three games in Pittsburgh, followed by three games in St Louis. The Reds cap a nine-game road trip with this series in Chicago, having gone 3-3 so far. Cincy is just 70-89 in 2019 (30-45 on the road) and the Reds' only role these last two weeks is that of a "spoiler." Taking the mound tonight will be Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA) and Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA). Sonny Gray was scheduled to start for the Reds but they will instead give Gausman his first start for Cincinnati since being claimed off waivers from Atlanta. Gausman began the 2018 season with Baltimore and was 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. However, the Orioles were an awful 6-15 in those starts, giving him a minus-$967 moneyline mark. Atlanta made a deal for Gausman at the trade deadline and it worked out well, as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts (Braves were 7-3). However, Gausman flopped pitching for an excellent Atlanta team in 2019, going 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA (Atlanta "saved him" by going 8-8 in his 16 starts). The Braves eventually gave up on him and Cincy claimed him off waivers. Gausman has made 11 relief appearances for the Reds while posting a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 innings but he does own a 22-3 KW ratio. As for Hamels, he makes his 26th start of the season. He has a 7.58 ERA in his last seven outings, which is quite a drop-off from him posting a 2.84 ERA in his first 18 starts. The 35-year-old has completed as much as six innings in just TWO of his last nine starts, while earning a victory just ONCE in his last 11 outings. Taking that all in, I will still back Hamels and the Cubs here, even laying 1 1/2 runs. Yes, the Cubs are a poor road team (31-44) but only MLB's three-best teams (Astros, Dodgers and Yankees) own a better home mark than Chicago's 50-24 mark at Wrigley Field (outscoring opponents on average, 5.34-to-3.89 RPG). Chicago has dominated right-handers at home this season (41-17), including 20-5 in night games. Getting back to Hamels, he checks in 12-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 20 career starts vs Cincy, with his teams going 18-2. BTW...In two career starts vs the Cubs, Gausman owns a 12.38 ERA. Cubs win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles fell behind the Redskins 17-0 in Week 1 at home in the early 2nd quarter and trailed 20-7 at the half. However, Philly scored the game's next 25 points, before Washington was able to add a "concession TD" with six seconds left for the 'cover!' Philly visits Atlanta for Week 2's Sunday Night Football contest, as the Falcons look to avert an 0-2 start for the first time since 2007. Atlanta was steamrolled at Minnesota last Sunday, falling behind 28-0. Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and sacked four times to put the Falcons in a sizable hole. He did throw two, 4th-quarter TD passes in the 28-12 loss. Philly QB Carson Wentz looked to be in mid-season form, throwing for 313 yards and three TDs. DeSean Jackson caught two of those TDs, among his eight catches for 154 yards. Philly may have the deepest set of RBs in the league, with off-season acquisition Jordan Howard (over 3,300 rushing yards the L3 years with the Bears) joining veteran Darren Sproles and Penn St rookie Miles Sander. However, the Eagles finished 30th against the pass last season and showed no signs of improvement in Week 1, as Washington's Case Keenum threw for 380 yards against a suspect secondary that didn't get much help from the pass rush. Atlanta had problems with both its offensive and defensive lines at Minnesota. The Falcons OL allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits in 2018 (gave up four sacks vs Minnesota) plus the DL gave up 172 rushing yards and three TDs vs the Vikes. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 consecutive contests and with WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has talented targets. Then there is TE Austin Hooper, who reeled in a team-leading nine catches in Week 1. The Falcons have lost to the Eagles each of the last three seasons, averaging just 12.3 points in those games. However, all three of the games were in Philadelphia and the last two times the Falcons were near the goal line with multiple chances to win. The Eagles have given up an average of eight more points and 66 more yards per game on the road that at home during the past three years, while Matt Ryan had an 118.0 QB rating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, compared to 99.7 on the road last season. Dan Quinn has brushed off any suggestion that he's starting to feel some heat but he has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs at the end of the 2017 season. I doubt Quinn and Atlanta will ever 'live down' squandering a 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl but Atlanta NEEDS this one and it's only a Week 2 game. I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott got the Buffalo head coaching job in 2017 and ended a 17-year postseason drought for the franchise by going 10-6 in his first season to earn a wild card berth. However, the Bills regressed in 2018, going 6-10. Buffalo surprised most by going 4-0 in the 2019 preseason and then the Bills beat the Jets 17-16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. Buffalo allowed the first 16 points in its season opener before rallying in the second half to earn the one-point victory.Josh Allen orchestrated a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 3-yard scramble to get the Bills within 16-10, before connecting with John Brown for a 38-yard TD with three minutes remaining. Allen's late heroics helped atone for his earlier play, as he became the first NFL quarterback to commit four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) in a victory since 2013. The Bills return to MetLife Stadium looking for their first 2-0 start since 2014 to take on the Giants, who are trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013. The Giants, like the Bills, delivered a 4-0 preseason. However, they were not up to the challenge of slowing down Dallas QB Dak Prescott in Week 1, as he threw for 405 yards and four TDs (zero INTs). Dallas jumped out early against the Giants and led 35-10 into the fourth quarter, with the Giants scoring with just over two minutes left in the game for the 35-17 final. Which Josh Allen will we see on Sunday? The one who played so poorly for most of the game, or that one which led the 4th-quarter comeback. As for the Giants, Eli threw for 306 yards (1 TD / 0 INTS) plus Barkley added 120 yards rushing (10.9 YPC), but the Giants trailed by 25 points as the 2-minute warning approached. Buffalo as a road favorite? The Bills have been favored on the road just EIGHT times over their last 50 games, going 2-6 ATS in those rare occurrences .Daniel Jones is 'looking over Eli's shoulder' (and the fans are likely behind tat move) but I'm betting the vet can earn a win here against an improving but "not there just yet" Buffalo team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET. Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win. The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team. Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC 30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | Iowa -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28. A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Houston at 9:15 ET. Mike Leach career ended at Texas Tech after the 2009 season, amid lots of controversy. He resurfaced in Pullman with Wash St but saw his second season (6-7 after a bowl loss), sandwiched around a pair of 3-9 seasons in his first and third years. However, Wash St entered the 2019 season off FOUR straight bowl appearances, with his Cougars finishing 11-2 in 2018 and 10th in the AP's final poll. Washington State lost QB Greg Minshew (70.7%, 4,779 yard, 38-9 ratio) to the NFL but its offense is in mid-season form after just two games, as Anthony Gordon (five pass attempts in 2018) has completed 81.1% of his passes for 884 yards with nine TDs and just one INT. WSU has scored 117 points (58.5 PPG ranks 5th) on 606.0 YPG (7th), although the team is averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (110th). The Cougars travel to Houston Friday night to take on the 1-1 Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). The Cougars opened their season Sep 1 at Oklahoma and while they never threatened to win the game, they were able to cover as a 21 1/2-point underdog in the 18-point loss. However, Oklahoma ran up 686 total yards, as QB Jalen Hurts passed for 332 yards and three TDs, while adding 176 rushing yards and another three TDs. Last Saturday's 37-17 home win over Prairie View A&M was hardly impressive. Will Houston have much luck slowing down Gordon and the WSU offense? No, but don't be too quick to dismiss Houston. UH is 3-0 at NRG Stadium (just five miles for the campus) since 2012, a 33-23 upset over Oklahoma in 2016. Even more noteworthy is the fact that Houston is 8-1 ATS as an underdog vs ranked teams since 2013 (that's an 89% winning situation). The LONE non-cover in that stretch came in last year's 70-14 beatdown by Army in Armed Forces Bowl when QB D’Eriq King was out with injury. King is a true dual-threat, who passed for 2,582 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) plus ran for 674 yards and 14 TDs. In a much 'friendlier' venue that Norman on Sep 1, don't be surprised if King out-shines Gordon, giving the 20th-ranked Cougars all they want. Upset alert? Maybe, but take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday. Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC). Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging 39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns had a promising finish last year, winning FIVE of their last seven to end the season at 7-8-1. That's pretty rarefied air considering te team was 0-16, 1-15 and 3-13 the previous two seasons. That promising finish coupled with a strong off-season have expectations are running high in Cleveland. QB Baker Mayfield is trying to follow up an excellent rookie campaign (63.8% / 3,725 yards / 27-14 ratio). Star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team in the off-season and join fellow WR Jarvis Landry (81 catches). RB Nick Chubb (996 yards / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs) expects to top 1,000 yards in 2019.The Titans are a solid team in the AFC South, the most competitive and strongest division in the AFC. The Titans have won nine games in each of the last three years and the hope is that this is the year QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy (he's yet to play all 16 games). Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RBDerrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. The Browns haven’t been ranked inside the top-20 in offensive points scored since 2007 but that should change in 2019. However, the Browns gave up the third-most yards per game last year (393.0 YPG), while ranking 28th in run defense (135.2 YPG). I think expectations are running WAY too high on the Browns. Is Mayfield really that good? He struggled against the better defensive teams he played against last season and the Titans will bring their "D" to Cleveland. Here's something I will NOT ignore. Cleveland is 5-14-2 ATS in its last 21 games in Week 1 and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games. As for the Titans, they have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog of at least three points, while Browns have failed to cover EIGHT of their last 11 games as a favorite of at least three points. Finally, the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018. At this pointspread, the Browns would have been 0-14 ATS in those games. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Run-line Rout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't yet officially clinched their SEVENTH straight NL West title but it's been pretty much a foregone conclusion since the All Star break. However, still at stake for LA here in September is securing the NL's best overall record and catching the Yankees and Astros for MLB's best overall record. Both of those pursuits took a hit last night, as the Dodgers lost 5-4 at home to the Giants. LA is 92-51 but with Atlanta's win over the Nats, the Braves are now 88-54, just 3 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Over in the AL, Houston and New York are both 92-50, a half-game ahead of LA. Taking the mound tonight will be Tyler Beede (3-9, 5.61 ERA) and Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 2.89), a pair of rookies. Beede's last win came back on July 14 when he won 8-3 at Milwaukee. His next start was OUTSTANDING (eight scoreless innings at home vs the Mets) but he settled for a no-decision in a 1-0 Giants win. However, he's 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA over his last eight starts (team is 0-8). Beede's been awful on the road all season, posting a 6.81 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .297 BAA. Gonsolin's major-league debut was June 26 at Arizona and he allowed four ERs in four innings of an 8-2 loss. He made a relief appearance about a month later but he's been part of the rotation in August, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts. LA is a more modest 2-2 in those starts but note that in his only two home starts this season, he's 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and a .111 BAA! LA can't afford another slip-up against a team like the Giants, who are just 5-12 over their last 17 games to fall out of any realistic hopes in the NL's wild-card chase (8 1/2 games back with FOUR teams between them and the second wild card team / Giants would have to climb over FIVE teams!). The Dodgers own the most home wins of any team in MLB, going 55-19 while outscoring opponents 5.42-to-3.30 RPG. I noted Beede's road numbers (see above) and the rookie right-hander faces a Dodgers lineup which is 41-10 at home vs right-handed starters, averaging 5.8 RPG. Kershaw pitched just four innings last night (allowed three runs) but I expect the rookie to "step up" here vs the hated-Giants. Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14. LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air. Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games." He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD. BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC). Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Texas St at 7:00 ET. The Wyoming Cowboys pulled a Week 1 shocker, upsetting Missouri 37-31 in Laramie as 15-point home dog. QB Sean Chambers threw for just 92 yards on 6 of 16 passing but led the Cowboys in rushing with 120 yards and a TD. RB Xazavian Valladay added 118 yards on the ground and also score a TD. A worry has to be a defense which allowed Missouri 537 total yards and 28 FDs. Winning the TO 'battle' 3-0 was a HUGE key for Wyoming.The Texas State Bobcats were manhandled 41-7 at Texas A&M to open their season and the team's lone score came on a 27-yard TD pass with only 36 seconds left in the game (giving them a push/ATS win). Wyoming took full advantage of a rare home game (at 7,200 feet) against a bottom-rung SEC foe but the Cowboys hit the road this week in what sets up as a classic letdown spot. Texas State has a new head coach in Jake Spavital and 19 of 22 starters are back from the 2018 team. This is just the fourth meeting between the two schools and the home teams has won SU in each of the first three. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -8 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
My 7* play is on UCLA at 4:15 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs opened their season with a victory but a 6-0 home win over Weber St as a 12-point favorite was hardly inspiring. UCLA had a "revenge" game with Cincy to open its 2019 season but fell, 24-14. Chip Kelly's first season at UCLA was an unqualified disaster (3-9) and a loss here almost guarantees an 0-3 start to 2019, as Oklahoma visits the Rose Bowl next Saturday. SDSU gained just 238 yards at home vs an FCS team (granted a nationally-ranked one) and the Aztecs have NEVER beaten the Bruins. The schools first met back in 1922 and the Bruins lead the series 21-0-1. Kelly has 19 starters back and this is a game he can and NEEDS to win. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Purdue at 12:00 ET. Vanderbilt had a tough season-opener on Aug 31, as No. 3 Georgia visited Nashville. The 'Dores fell behind 21-0 in the first 22 minutes against the Bulldogs and managed just a pair of Ryley Guay field FGs in a 30-6 loss. Yes, Vandy was out-gained 479-225 but the team's "D" was able to keep Georgia's potent offense from scoring a TD over the game's final 37 minutes. Purdue traveled to Reno, Nevada to open its season on Aug 31 (farthest the Boilermakers had traveled for s a season-opener since 2009 at Eugene, Oregon). Purdue led 24-7 at the half and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites). on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The two schools will meet for the first time since 1942 when the Commodores travel to West Lafayette, Ind. on Saturday afternoon. Vandy QB Riley Neal finished 14-of-25 for just 85 yards against a Georgia defense expected to be one of the best in the nation. Senior running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who rushed for 1,244 yards and 12 TDs in 2018, had 74 yards on 15 carries. Obviously, Purdue's defense will be an easier test but while Vandy did 'hold' Georgia to 30 points, the defense did allow 481 yards. Purdue's senior QB Elijah Sindelar completed 34-of-52 passes for 423 yards and four TDs but also threw two second-half interceptions that helped key the Wolf Pack's comeback. All-American wide receiver Rondale Moore had 11 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown but also fumbled a punt that set up a Nevada field goal. Jeff Brohm's Purdue team returned just three offensive starters but last Saturday's performance on the road shows that they’re capable of putting points on the board. NINE defensive starters return, so expect Purdue to have much better success here at home, against a questionable Vandy offense. Purdue let a game slip away that it rightfully should’ve won last Saturday and here at home, should "get it right" vs Vandy, a team which has lost its last SEVEN road openers when playing a Power-5 school. Jeff Brohm was seen as a rising star at Western Ky (30-10 record, while leading the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths) but so far, he's finding the Big Ten much tougher. The SEC is of course a 'monster' but Vandy is VERY beatable. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights play is on Marshall at 9:00 ET. I referred to Boise St last week as the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late ‘90s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) and the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncos opened their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee (moved from Jacksonville because of the hurricane situation) and after falling behind 31-13 by the late second quarter, staged a dramatic comeback.The BSU defense tightened (FSU never scored over the game's final 34 minutes and was held to just 68 yards in the second half), while freshman QB Hank Bachmeier, hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State football history, gave every indication that he's "the real deal." Bachmeier threw for 407 yards (one TD / one INT) plus was greatly helped by a running game that ran 57 times (the second-most during Harsin's tenure as coach since 2014) for 214 yards. RB Robert Mahone had 142 yards (he ran for just 128 all last year and 115 in 2017) and two TDs. The Broncos are back home Friday night to host Marshall. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! Marshall 'tuned up' last Saturday with a 56-17 romp over VMI, an FCS school. Marshall amassed 620 yards of total offense, while limiting VMI to 257. The Herd had a balanced attack of 340 yards passing and 280 rushing with 35 FDs.QB Isaiah Green (18-28 for 233 yards) threw a career-high four TD passes and the running game averaged 6.1 YPC. Marshall should NOT be overlooked, as the Herd are 8-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing as an underdog. As for Boise, that famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors would have liked. In fact, the Broncos check in at 16-35-1 the last 51 games as a home favorite. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros are cruising toward another AL West title (lead by NINE games) but are in a 'dog fight' with the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 seed. The 90-50 Astros are 1 1/2 games back of the 92-49 Yankees as they get set to welcome the Seattle Mariners to Houston for a four-games series on Thursday night. The Mariners continue their road trip after managing a total of just TWO runs while dropping a two-game set at the Chicago Cubs to open the week. Seattle has lost SEVEN of nine and has scored three or fewer runs in SIX of its last eight games. Remember how Seattle opened the 2019 at 13-2. If you don't, you are NOT alone. Taking the mound tonight will be Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA) and Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06 ERA). Gonzales won 13 games in 29 starts in 2018 (his first as a full-time starter) and makes his 30th start in this one with 14 victories. However, he saw a stretch of four straight starts allowing three runs or less come to an end when he gave up six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-3 loss at Texas on Friday. Miley is part of a Houston starting rotation which features Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke but he's been the Astros' biggest money-maker. The Astros have won of his 28 starts, giving him a moneyline record of plus-$955 (8th-best in MLB). Gonzlaes has pitched well for a team which collapsed after that 13-2 start (Seattle is just 45-80, .360 since) but he's up against it here. The lefty faces a Houston lineup that has gone 29-9 against left-handed starters in 2019, including 17-3 at home. More trouble comes in the fact that he's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA over six career appearances (five starts / teams are 0-5) against the Astros. Miley is tied for third in the AL in ERA and enters this contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last 12 outings! Miley is 3-1 (3.40 ERA) in seven career starts against Seattle (teams are 6-1) and this year's Seattle team is 16-30 against lefties, including a woeful 3-12 in road night games. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET. Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time. Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back. Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG. Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works! Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee). The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson. There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end. FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror." I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU! Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss +5 v. Memphis | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. Memphis football looked 'dead in the water' from 2009-13, going 12-50 (.194) in that five-year span. However, in Justin Fuente's third season at Memphis (2014), the Tigers would go 10-3, including a thrilling 55-48 (2 OT) victory over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. Fuente led the Tigers to a bowl berth again in 2015 but left to take the Va Tech job. Mike Norvell took over in 2016 and he's led the Tigers to three straight bowls but Memphis has lost each one. The Tigers are off a so-so 8-6 season and return 14 starters. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly, things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. When last seen, Rich-Rod’s spread option saw Arizona QB Khalil Tate create more than a few headlines and there was some Heisman-talk. Reports are that redshirt freshman Matt Corral (239 yards, 2 TDs) will thrive as Rich-Rod's QB and senior RB Scottie Phillips will get lots of work after he ran for 928 yards in his first season with the Rebels (JC transfer), While Rich-Rod's transition should go smoothly, Mike MacIntyre will have his hands full with the Rebels' defense. Ole Miss ranked 116th against the run and 111th against the pass in 2018. The Rebels are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 on defense and there is nowhere to go but up! Norvell's Tigers have averaged 42.9, 45.5 and 38.8 PPG in his three seasons at Memphis and theTigers return QB Brady White (3,296 yards / 26-9 ratio). Leading rusher Darrell Henderson (1,909 yards, 22 TDs) and Tony Pollard (552, 6 TDs both decided to leave for the NFL but Patrick Taylor Jr. stuck around for his senior season. He ran for 1,122 yards, and 16 TDs. Memphis also returns three of its top-four receivers, including the outstanding Damonte Coxie, who caught 72 balls (1,174 yards and 7 TDs). The offense will again be prolific but the defense coughed up various big leads in 2018, finishing 105th in pass ranking and 76th in rush ranking (31.9 PPG). OK, Ole Miss' defense stunk in 2018 but expect MacIntyre to make a difference. Ole Miss returns 11 of their 12 top-tacklers plus a probable top CB in Jaylon Jones, who missed 11 games due to a torn ACL. Ole Miss could really use a confidence boosting victory to set the tone for this season and the Rebels will likely have lots of support at the Liberty Bowl, which is just an hour or so from Oxford. Speaking of 'leaky' defenses, the Memphis D gave up 93 points in its losses in the AAC championship game loss (UCF) and the Birmingham Bowl loss (Wake Forest). Memphis also lost "big-time" at Missouri last season (an equally bad SEC defensive team, ala Ole Miss), 65-33! I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET. You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins. Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson. Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season). BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War." Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-19 | Raiders v. Seahawks -2 | Top | 15-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 10:00 ET. Jon Gruden's first season back in the NFL went very poorly in 2018, as the Raiders finished 4-12 (last-place in the AFC West) and 6-10 ATS. Gruden has always had a good preseason record and he's been perfect so far in 2019, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Raiders opened with a 14-3 home win over the disinterested Rams, then won 33-26 at Arizona in Week 2. Oakland made it THREE straight wins last Thursday with a 22-21 win over the Packers, a game played in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The contest was played on a field shortened to 80 yards for player safety. The end zones were marked by bright orange pylons at the 10-yard lines and there were no kickoffs. The field was reconfigured because of concerns about the areas where the goal posts for the CFL's Winnipeg franchise were removed and covered with turf. Before warmups, game officials and staff from both clubs examined the turf that covered the goal post spots for 110-yard CFL games. The goal posts would have been inside the NFL end zones. Packers coach Matt LaFleur decided to sit 33 players, including star QB Aaron Rodgers, yet the Raiders needed a Daniel Carlson 33-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining to earn the one point win. Like Gruden, Seattle's Pete Carroll has an excellent preseason record and the Seahawks are 2-1 SU and ATS in 2019, losing only at Minnesota, another outstanding preseason team under head coach Mike Zimmer. Russell Wilson directed the Seahawks to a pair of TDs and a field goal in five possessions in two preseason games and it's unlikely that he will play in Thursday's preseason finale. Geno Smith seemed well ahead of Paxton Lynch entering the first preseason contest against Denver (Aug 8) but Lynch, playing against deeper Broncos reserves, out-played Smith that night while Smith played on the cyst in his knee. He had it removed the next day. Lynch was 11 for 15 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass. Smith sat out the Minnesota loss, while Lynch was 6 for 15 against the Vikings before he had his 'bell rung.' Lynch sat out Week 3 (concussion protocol) and Smith entered on the fourth series (following Wilson's solid effort), with the score 13-3. He led the Seahawks to scores on his first two drives, the kind of performance that may go a long way toward earning him the backup spot over Lynch. Smith led the Seahawks on drives of 48, 73 and 74 yards the first three times he was in the game, completing 10 of 16 passes for 117 yards and also rushing four times for 26 yards while adding a TD. Oakland wraps its preseason with this game in Seattle, returning from Winnipeg (won't here that again for awhile). It's hard to see Carr playing much (if at all) and that leaves Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. For some reason, Gruden likes Peterman but why? Consider this. Peterman is arguably the worst QB in the history of the NFL, as no QB with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 20 years has a lower career passer rating than Peterman's 32.5! Carroll rarely needs motivation in a preseason game but note that the Raiders beat the Seahawks 30-19 in Week 4 of last year's preseason (in Seattle), as E.J. Manuel, a former NFL starter, threw four TD passes (Manuel is long gone). In last year's contest, Carroll's QBs were career fourth-stringer Austin Davis and then-rookie Alex McGough (now 'stinking it up' in Jacksonville). Here, we should see plenty of a highly-motivated Geno Smith (dangerous against non-starters) plus maybe some Paxton Lynch or rookie J.T. Barrett. No 4-0 preseason here for Oakland, as Seattle wins handily Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-19 | Broncos v. Rams -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 9:00 ET. The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams get together Saturday in LA and neither team expects to play its starters very much. "Most of the guys you refer to as ‘starters’ will not play in the game (Saturday),” Denver head coach Vic Fangio said before practice on Thursday. “It’s our fourth (preseason) game, not our third, and we just felt like it’s the best thing to do for our team now.” As for LA, head coach Sean McVay has used his starters sparingly in the team's first two games and there is NO reason to expect him to do otherwise in this contest (more on that in a bit). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. We'll have to wait until the regular season to judge if he was a good hire. The Broncos have played three preseason games, starting out with a 14-10 win over the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game (needed a TD with 1 1/2 minutes remaining to beat a team which has now lost 12 straight preseason games.) Denver followed with a 22-14 loss at Seattle, before losing this past Monday at home to the 49ers, 24-15 The Rams looked disinterested in Week 1 in a 14-3 loss at Oakland, gaining just 190 total yards with just 10 FDs. Things weren't much better in Wee2, as the Rams lost in Hawaii 14-10 against the Cowboys. LA gained 270 yards (with 14 FDs) in that one but went scoreless in the second half. McVay has treated the preseason as merely exhibition games and it's worked well. He took over a franchise in 2017 that hadn't had a winning season since 2003 and has won back-to-back NFC West titles, going 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 last year. Some may remember, the Rams almost beat the Pats in last year's Super Bowl. There can be little argument that McVay's reserves are better than Denver's. Flacco and Lock (team's No.2 QB) will NOT see time here, as Kevin Hogan will start, backed up by Brett Rypien. Hogan may have been 36-10 as Stanford's starting QB but he's played in just eight NFL games (one start), with four TDs and seven INTs (61.5 QB rating. Hogan is 13-of 30 (43.3%) for 104 yards (zero TDs and one INT) in the 2019 preseason. Rypien is a rookie who did throw the game-winning TD pass in the HOF game but hasn't played since. As for the Rams, Blake Bortles should see plenty of action at QB and let's not forget that he was the overall No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft by Jacksonville. He threw for 35 TDs and almost 4,500 yards in 2015 and in 2017, led the Jags to the AFC championship game at New England, where Jacksonville coughed up a 4th-quarter lead. As noted above, this game will be decided by the reserves but Fangio has made it well-known he has little interest in doing anything but keeping his team healthy. It is hardly a good situation that this will be Denver's fourth game in FOUR different cities this preseason, plus will be back on the field again next Thursday in Denver. Sure, McVay has played it close to the vest in the preseason but his team has gone 3-1 SU in home preseason games the last two years (lone loss came by two points). NOTE: This will be LA's LONE home game of the 2019 preseason. Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET. The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach. The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return. No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell. Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-19 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -2.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* NFLX Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 8:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars have opened NFLX 2019 at 0-2, getting shut out 29-0 at Baltimore in Week 1 and then losing 24-10 at home 24-10 in Week 2 to the Eagles. The Jags have started so poorly at least in part (maybe largely?) due to the fact that head coach Doug Marrone has decided to sit his starters as much as he can this preseason in the hopes his crew will be fresher on Opening Day. In the team's home loss to the Philadelphia, Marrone sat 31 players , including QB Nick Foles. Foles has yet to play this season but he is expected to make his Jaguars debut here. However, for how long? The Dolphins are SIX seconds from opening 2-0, as the Bucs edged Miami 16-14 last Friday night in Tampa, by kicking the game-winning FG with six seconds left on the clock (Bucs won, 16-14). The Dolphins beat the Falcons 34-27 in Week 1 (who doesn't beat Atlanta in the preseason, these days?). Rookie head coach Brian Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins starter for this Week 3 game and that generally means Fitzpatrick will start the team's season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 8. However, backup (?) Josh Rosen has stated that he just wants to improve and is not focused on the QB battle. “I’m not focusing on the competition at all,” Rosen said after practice Tuesday. “I obviously care about playing and all this, but in terms of where I stand, I really couldn’t care less about the whole competition. I’m really just trying to be the best that I can be. Fitz is trying to be the best that he can be. We’re trying to help each other. A rising tide raises all ships. Either one of us that proves worthy to rise the tide the most, I guess, will be the guy. But it’s about becoming the best quarterback that you can be. It’s not about just kind of one-upping the guy next to you because that sort of defeats the purpose of being a teammate in the first place.” I believe this sets up an excellent situation here for Miami, as both QBs will be looking to shine. Sure, Foles will see some action for the Jags but why risk him too much? After all, Marrone has seen that neither Minshew nor McCough have shown that they are anywhere near "ready for primetime" the first two weeks. The duo has combined for 63 pass attempts (each has been sacked four times), without a TD pass. Overall, the Jags offense has converted just EIGHT of 28 third-down attempts (28.6%). Miami wins this one going away. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 7:00 ET. The New York Giants will play their first road game of the preseason on Thursday when they head to Cincinnati to take on the 1-1 Bengals. The Giants have been a big surprise, scoring 31 points in a nine-point win over the Jets on Aug 8 and then beat the Bears 32-13 last Friday. Eli Manning went 4-of-4 against the Bears for 42 yards and a TD, prized-rookie Daniel Jones has looked comfortable through two preseason games. He went 5-of-5 in Week 1 with a TD and the 11-of-14 for 161 yards in Week 2 and another TD. Is there a QB controversy? Reports say that Eli Manning will be the starting QB in Week 1 of action. With that said, expect Jones to get even more snaps and reps with the first unit this week. The Chiefs overwhelmed the Bengals at KC in Week 1, winning 38-17. However, Cincy rebounded in Week 2, winning 23-13 at Washington last Thursday. No. 1 QB Andy Dalton has thrown exactly nine passes in each of the first two games, completing 14 or 77.8%. However, he does not have a TD pass and has one INT. Rookie QB Ryan Finley was terrific in the win at Washington, completing 20-of-26 for 150 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Dalton should see a little more time here in this Week 3 (dress rehearsal) contest but expect Finley to keep getting significant work. The Giants have overachieved so far the first two weeks and away from home, expect a drop-off. OBJ is in Cleveland plus the team has all sorts of 'holes' in its receiving corps. WRs Corey Coleman is out of the season with a torn ACL, Sterling Shepard will not be playing in the preseason contests after suffering a broken thumb in last Thursday’s drills and Golden Tate is on suspension in four regular season games for taking banned substances that enhance playing performance. This marks Cincy's first home game of the preseason and marks the home debut of rookie head coach Zac Taylor. Note that Finley played at NC State and had just as good a year (arguably slightly better) than Daniel Jones had at Duke. Jones was the sixth overall pick by the Giants, while Finley went in the fourth round (104th overall). Will (can) Finley make a point, here? More importantly, expect a let down for the Giants after scoring 63 points in their first two games, while the Bengals win Taylor's home debut. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Monday Night Game of the Year is on the Den Broncos at 8:00 ET. The 49ers had some high hopes for 2018 after finishing hot the previous season, but the team was riddled with injuries to key players, most notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is expected to be available by the start of the regular season and as I noted in taking the 49ers (over the Cowboys) in NFLX Week 1, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Beathard was 13 of 17 for 141 yards and Mullens 11 of 17 for 105 vs Dallas, (each had a TDP and an INT). The 48ers' D held Dallas scoreless in the second half and the 49ers won 17-9. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span The Broncos eked out a 14-10 HOF game win over the Falcons but as all know, EVERYONE beats Atlanta in the preseason recently (Falcons are 0-11 since 2017). The Broncos then lost 22-14 in Week 1 at Seattle but as most know as well, Pete Carroll is one of the NFL's best preseason coaches. Joe Flacco will be Denver's starting QB come the regular season but he won't see much time this preseason but I would expect him to see some action in Denver's 'home opener,' which is also Fangio's first home game. Drew Lock completed 17 of 28 for 180 yards (TD and INT) last week and is playing a lot in these preseason games, getting familiar with the offense and what is expected of him. San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan has now won each of his first three NFLX Week 1 games as the Niners' head coach but note the last two preseasons, he's 1-5 SU the other six. He almost HAS to win to cover in this contest and I believe the motivation all sides with the home team in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the TB Bucs at 7:30 ET. Miami’s rookie head coach Brian Flores picked up a "W" in his debut, as the Dolphins edged the Atlanta Falcons 34-27 last Thursday. It's great to get a win but the Dolphins were fortunate. The Falcons have now lost 10 straight preseason games and it's easy to see why. Atlanta was The Falcons were flagged for 12 penalties (97 yards) and with the game tied at 27-all at the two-minute warning, Atlanta turned it over on downs by failing on fourth-and-nine from its own 16-yard-line! How about that for game-management! Two plays later, Miami scored the winning TD! Bruce Arians is not new to coaching, as his regular season record is 58–33–1 (.636) and he's earned Coach-of-the-Year honors twice, in 2012 (Indy) and 2014 (Arizona). However, he is new at Tampa. His Bucs’ offense gained 479 yards and gained 31 FDs at Pittsburgh last week but came up on the short end of a 30-28 final (TB went for two after each of its final two TDs, failing both times). Ryan Fitzgerald had some good games for the Bucs last season and is now expected to be Miami's starting QB (note: he had better skill players to work with at Tampa Bay). Josh Rosen is also looking to win the starting QB job and got plenty of work vs the Falcons. However, he was under pressure regularly by an opponent (Atlanta) that excels in losing preseason games (now 10 straight for the Falcons). In the end, Rosen looked like no more than an average NFL quarterback. Bruce Arians is loaded with energy and his early press conferences strongly indicate he intends to be aggressive and wants to get a winning attitude established. The Bucs have gone 5-11 in consecutive seasons and Jameis Winston has won only 21 of 56 career starts as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Winston finished 5 of 6 for 40 yards with a 9-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin in his lone series of action vs Pittsburgh. The Bucs faced third down just once during his 12-play, 81-yard drive. "It was a perfect drive," Arians said. "We ran the ball well, and that sets up a lot of stuff for us. I thought Jameis took what was there." I expect to see Winston a little more here and note that the Bucs have beaten the Dolphins in FOUR of the teams' five preseason meetings going back to 2011. Great spot for the home team here vs its in-state rival. Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (NL) is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers own a National League-best 78-41 record (the Houston's .658 win percentage barely tops LA's .655) and their 47-16 home record (outscoring opponents 5.30-to-3.16 RPG) is tops in the majors (18-game margin over the Diamondbacks in the NL West is MLB's largest division lead). The Dodgers complete a 10-game homestand (7-2 so far) by hosting Arizona on Sunday in the rubber match of their three-game series. The D'backs won 3-2 (11 inn.) on Friday, a game which featured a brief benches-clearing confrontation. The Dodgers recorded their 13th shutout with a 4-0 victory on Saturday and there was no hangover from that bench-clearing brawl. Mike Leake (9-8, 4.24 ERA) will make his second start in a Diamondbacks uniform, opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.53 ERA), who returns from the injured list (neck). Leake was the eighth pick of the 2009 draft and made his Diamondbacks' debut on Tuesday night, after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline. It was his first start since July 30 and he did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs - two earned - and 11 hits in 5.1 innings of Arizona's 8-4 victory over Philadelphia. Leake is 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Dodgers but hasn't faced them since 2017. Ryu settled for a no-decision despite scattering three hits over six scoreless innings in LA's 5-1 victory at Colorado back on July 31, before going on the IL. The 32-year-old South Korean is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and here's why. Except for him allowing seven ERs over just four innings back on June 28 (13-9 LA loss), the lefty has allowed two ERs or less in each one of his other 20 starts of 2019! He's 8-0 in 10 home starts (Dodgers are 10-0), posting an 0.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and a .187 BAA. Leake has now joined his FIFTH team, after going 102-95 with a 4.04 ERA in 291 games (286 starts) with Cincinnati, San Francisco, St Louis and Seattle. He is no more than a journeyman and I expect the D'backs to fade away over the next few weeks, as they currently sit 2 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot but have FOUR teams between them and the postseason berth. As for LA and Ryu, expect no "fading away!" Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SF 49ers at 9:00 ET. The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet Saturday at Levi's Stadium in the final game of NFLX Week 1 action. Jason Garrett took over as the Cowboys' head coach during the 2011 season,. He went 8-8 in each of the next three years but Dallas has won the NFC East three times over the last five seasons. However, Dallas has yet to advance past the Divisional Round in the postseason. Is this finally going to be a make-or-break season for him? Jim Harbaugh took over at San Francisco in 2011, with the 49ers having suffered EIGHT consecutive non-winning seasons. He led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record the next three seasons, losing twice in the NFC championship game and once in the Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, Harbaugh and the 49ers mutually agreed to part ways. The 49ers have followed with records of 5-11, 2-14, 6-10 and 4-12, the last two under current head coach Kyle Shanahan. There is no doubt that Garrett is under a ton of pressure to win in 2019 but this is the preseason. Dallas was 0-4 in last year's preseason and under Garrett, the Cowboys are just 13-20 SU and 11-22 ATS in the exhibition season. Prescott won't see much if any time in this one and the team's backup QB battle between Cooper Rush and Mike White features players without a single NFL start, with neither having played well in limited opportunities. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season but unlike Dallas, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Don't be surprised if either (both?) carve up the second and third-unit defenses of the Cowboys. The 49ers are 2-0 in Week 1 preseason games Shanahan, scoring 27 and 24 points in those games (better than most!). Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-19 | Jaguars v. Ravens -4 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bal Ravens at 7:30 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens meet Thursday at M&T Bank Stadium. The Jags are "all in" with Nick Foles at QB but he is hardly expected to see any real action in this road game (note: Jags host the Eagles, Foles' former team, next Thursday). As for the Ravens, they've officially entered "the Lamar Jackson era." That said, like Foles, Jackson won't be around for long on Thursday night. We know that second and third-stringers typically determine Week 1 winners (SU & ATS) but what I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that a reasonable person would have said entering 2018, but Baltimore then went 5-0, which began with a HOF game win. Why "step in front of the Ravens' winning streak" with a Jacksonville team which will feature QBs Tanner Lee, Alex McGough and Gardner Minshew. That trio has combined for ZERO pass attempts in an NFL game! Good luck...Larry |
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08-02-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, a six-game winning streak from June 22-28 gave Texas a 46-36 record, which had the team thinking "wild card." The Rangers cooled somewhat into the All Star break but returned to beat the Astros in their first two games post-break, giving them a 50-42 mark. The Rangers were "right in the wild card hunt" at that time but open a weekend three-game series with the Tigers having lost 12 of 16, falling 7 1/2 games out of the AL's second wild card spot. The Tigers are 4-15 since the break and have caught and passed the Orioles for the title of MLB's "worst team." Detroit owns an unwanted 'daily double,' featuring MLB's worst record (32-72), as well as its worst moneyline mark (minus-$2,687). Rookie Tyler Alexander (0-1, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit, opposed by Texas veteran Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.83 ERA). Alexander is looking for his first major league win in his fourth start. Expecting for it to come here is unliklely, as in two road starts, he owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (Tigers are 0-2). Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he's "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three ERs or less in 16 of his 22 starts this season. He broke out of a two-start slump at Oakland last Friday, when he held the A's to two runs (one earned) on four hits while striking out eight over six innings of a 5-2 win.. Detroit ranks last in scoring (3.58 RPG) and team BA (.231) plus second-to-last in OPS (.671) and HRs (98). Texas averages 5.63 RPG at home and the Rangers are 9-2 in Lynn's home starts in 2019. This 'W" comes "with room to spare." Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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Larry Ness ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 18 m | Show |
09-28-19 | UCLA v. Arizona -6 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Giants +6.5 v. Bucs | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
09-21-19 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Kansas | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -2 | 28-20 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
09-20-19 | Air Force +8.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 22 m | Show | |
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
09-18-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
09-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 111 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Iowa -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 8 m | Show |
09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 49 m | Show | |
09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 25 m | Show | |
09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -8 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
09-06-19 | Marshall +12 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Ole Miss +5 v. Memphis | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
08-29-19 | Raiders v. Seahawks -2 | Top | 15-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Broncos v. Rams -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 39 m | Show |
08-22-19 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -2.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
08-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
08-08-19 | Jaguars v. Ravens -4 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
08-02-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 31 m | Show |