Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-19 | Oklahoma v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on Wichita St at 6:00 ET.
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12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Top-10 Showdown is on Michigan at 12:00 ET.
No. 10 Oregon (7-2) will visit No. 5 Michigan (8-2) Saturday at 12:00 ET, playing at Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor for the first time in school history. Oregon won its first six games before, losing a pair of close games to ranked teams in the Battle 4 Atlantis, a one-point overtime heartbreaker to then-No. 8 Gonzaga and a four-point loss to then-No. 6 North Carolina. The Ducks have eased into their December schedule, as they have only played one game this month, an 89-64 victory over Hawaii on Saturday. Michigan was unranked heading into the season but vaulted to No. 4 after beating then No. 6 North Carolina and eighth-ranked Gonzaga to win the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament during Thanksgiving weekend. (note: Oregon lost to those same teams in that tourney). However, after losing to No. 1 Louisville in their first game with a ranking, the Wolverines bounced back with a home victory over Iowa on Dec 6 but then lost their big Ten road opener 71-62 at Illinois on Dec 13. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and he likes this year's team (I agree). The Ducks are led by senior guard Payton Pritchard, who is averaging 18.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. He is one of two players nationally averaging at least 18 points, six assists and four rebounds (Western Carolina's Mason Faulkner). Senior guard Anthony Mathis (10.8) and junior guard Chris Duarte (10.3 & 5.4) are the Ducks' other double-figure scorers, although Oregon goes 'nine-deep." Sophomore guard Will Richardson comes off the bench and is up to 9.4 PPG after averaging 16.5 points over his last two games. Starting alongside of Pritchard, Mathis and Duarte are 6-8 freshman Walker (5.9 & 3.2) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro (5.1 & 6.0). John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over is former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). However, the cupboard was far from bare. 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers averages a team-best 14.8 points and is shooting 52 percent from the floor. 7-1 senior center Jon Teske averages 14.3 PPG plus a team-high 9.0 RPG and is set to play his 89th straight game in this contest. Senior PG Xavier Simpson checks in with a line of 12.0-4.4-8.6 and junior guard Eli Brooks adds 11.7 PPG. Other key contributors are the 6-8 Wagner (7.7 & 3.3) and guard DeJulius (7.4 & 3.1). I'm a HUGE fan of Altman but I noted above that Oregon will be playing in Ann Arbor for the first-time ever but more notable, this is the Ducks' first true road game this season. In fact, it is Oregon's LONE true road game in 2019 (of 13), as the Ducks next head out on the road for their Pac-12 opener Jan 2 at Colorado. I mentioned above that Oregon's two losses came to Gonzaga and North Carolina in the Bahamas and while "comparison scores" can often be deceiving, it's hard NOT to note that Michigan beat Gonzaga 82-64 and beat North Carolina, 73-64. Oregon's first visit to Crisler Arena "dos NOT end well!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-13-19 | Lakers v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 113-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mia Heat at 7:05 ET.
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET.
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12-12-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 84-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Iowa St at 8:00 ET.
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12-11-19 | Fresno State v. California +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Cal 10:00 ET.
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12-11-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -1 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Crusher (East) is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET.
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12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Baylor at 9:00 ET.
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12-10-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET.
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12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET.
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12-09-19 | Clippers v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. Oladipo has yet to return but Indiana has won EIGHT of its last 10 (now 15-8 on the season), as it welcomes the LA Clippers to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The LA Clippers made HUGE news during the offseason by bringing in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, but LA has been good but NOT dominant, arriving in Indiana with a 17-7 record. The crosstown Lakers own the West's best record (20-3), while three other West teams are right there with the Clippers, owning just seven losses.LA recovered from a 28-point loss at Milwaukee on Friday to open their six-game road trip, by shooting 52.1 percent from the floor en route to a 135-119 win at Washington on Sunday Kawhi Leonard registered his first double-double in nine games with 34 points and 11 rebounds, while former Pacer Paul George scored 27. Leonard (25.1-7.9-5.2) connected on 12-of-18 from the floor Sunday, after going 8-of-29 in the previous two games. George (23.0-6.2-3.5) made 11-of-21 against the Wizards and is shooting 51.5 in four outings this month. No team can match LA's "one-two punch" off the bench, as guard Lou Williams (20.6 & 6.2 APG) and PF Montrezl Harrell (18.8 & 7.8) are "special." Harrell is averaging 20 points in December and has made at least half his shots from the floor in SEVEN of the last nine games, combining to shoot 61.3 percent during that stretch. Lou Williams poured in 18 points off the bench Sunday, but note that he's just 16 of 44 (36.4%) from the floor the past three games. Oladipo is still not ready to return for Indiana but center Myles Turner (11.0 & 5.4) and SG Jeremy Lamb (16.0 & 5.4) are both back on the court after dealing with ankle sprains and that's great news. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 19.0-4.9-7.7 but also be aware that the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga product is averaging 18.4 & 13.1 on the season, posting double-doubles in each of the last eight games and 16 of his last 17. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.7 PPG. Warren has been the go-to player over the last few weeks, averaging 22.9 points in the last eight games, while shooting 40.5 percent from three-point range overall. Brogdon missed the Pacers' Saturday game at the Knicks with a hand injury and his status for Monday’s contest is uncertain (listed as questionable). That's hardly good news but the Pacers are getting scoring from reserves McDermott (9.4) plus a pair of Holidays, as Aaron is averaging 8.9 PPG and Justin, 7.8. "Load management" is now part of the NBA lexicon and LA's Doc Rivers told The Athletic that Leonard or George could be rested against Indiana, with another three-game stretch in four nights beginning on Wednesday. My guess would be that Kawhi sits, as Paul George will surely want to play against his "old team." Bottom line is that the Clippers have been a poor road team this season (4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS), while the Pacers are 9-2 SU at home (Indiana is a small home dog, so ATS record means little here). The Pacers have won FIVE of their last six overall meetings with the Clippers, who have lost their last THREE here at Indiana. LA's going through a challenging stretch, as this is the team's FIFTH contest in NINE days to open December . Good luck...Larry |
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12-08-19 | Seton Hall v. Iowa State | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Iowa St at 9:00 ET.
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12-08-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -3 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi 76ers at 6:05 ET.
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12-08-19 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 23-16 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Pats at 4:25 ET.
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12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.
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12-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Xavier -6 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Xavier at 5:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin +1 | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (Big Ten) is on Wisconsin at 4:30 ET.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -8 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.
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12-06-19 | Nuggets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET.
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12-06-19 | Providence v. Rhode Island -1 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Rhode Island at 7:00 ET. State rivals Providence and Rhode Island are separated by about 30 miles but the two schools play in different leagues, as Providence is a member of the Big East and Rhode Island a member of the Atlantic-10. However, both schools come off similar years, as the Friars were 18-16 in the 2018-19 season, while the Rams went 18-15. Similarly, each school returned all FIVE starters from a year ago but also of note is that both teams have not gotten off to good starts. Providence has started just 5-4 and Rhode Island has opened 5-3. Providence, predicted to finish fourth in the Big East , just beat Pepperdine 80-77 in the seventh-place game of the Wooden Legacy on Sunday but prior to that, had dropped three in a row to mid-major programs. The Rams' most recent game was also last Sunday, when they put a scare into 7-0 West Va on the road, before settling for an 86-81 loss (more in a bit).All-Big East selection Alpha Diallo hasn't been able to build on his impressive junior campaign. The 6-7 guard struggled for the second straight game in Sunday's close win over Pepperdine, connecting on just 8 of 26 shots (30.8%) in that span. That said, he does lead the team in scoring (13.2) and rebounding (8.9). Returning guards Duke (12.9- 4.6-4.1), White (9.3) and Reeves (6.8) have been joined on the perimeter by have been joined by graduate transfer Pipkins (8.8 & 5.2 APG). The 6-7 Holt (8.7 & 5.2) is happy that 6-10 center Watson is finally back on the court after an injury, as he chipped in 15 points off the bench against the Waves. He has averaged 9.0 PPG in playing the last five games. Rhode Island's Fatts Russell (21.1-4.9-3.5) became the first Ram since Tavorris Bell (2000-01) to score at least 20 points in six straight games, after erupting for a season-high 32 against West Virginia. The 6-8 Cyril Langevine (10.5-10.5) is one of just three A-10 players averaging a double-double. Joining those two in scoring double digits are guards Dowtin (13.9) and Martin (10.6 & 5.3). It's true that Providence has 'owned' this series recently (Friars have won EIGHT of the last nine meetings) but the under-performing Friars look VERY vulnerable in this one. The Friars 'limp' into their annual showdown with the Rams on a 1-6 ATS run, with the team's lone "cover" coming against Merrimack. Rhode Island may be just 5-3 but its losses have come against two unbeatens on the road, at West Va (see above) and at now-No. 3 Maryland (9-0) plus against the SEC's LSU (6-2) in the Jamaica Classic. The Rams are 4-0 SU at home in the early going and get a "break-through win" against the Friars here, moving to 5-0. Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 7:35 ET.
James Harden just keeps piling up HUGE numbers. He recorded his fourth career 60-point outing against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday (he had exactly 60 in Houston's 158-11 home win over the Hawks) and followed with 50 points during Tuesday's 135-133 double-overtime loss at the San Antonio Spurs. Tuesday's effort was Harden's 21st career game with 50 or more points but as noted, it didn't result in a victory, as Houston blew a 22-point,second-half lead. Harden made all 24 of his free-throw attempts against San Antonio but struggled from the floor as he was 11-of-38 overall, including 4-of-20 from three-point range. 13-7 Houston will head north on Thursday to take on the 15-5 Toronto Raptors, who are coming off an OT loss as well. PG Kyle Lowry returned Tuesday after missing 11 games with a fractured left thumb but had just 12 points on 2-of-18 shooting while missing all 11 of his three-point attempts. Toronto suffered its first home loss of the season, after winning a franchise-record NINE straight home games to begin the season. Harden is averaging 42.6 points over the past five games to raise his season mark to 39.5 PPG (also 6.1 RPG and 7.8 APG). PG Russell Westbrook has adapted to a complementary role (21.9-7.8-7.1) and center Clint Capela returned from a two-game absence due to illness and made all nine field-goal attempts while recording 22 points and 21 rebounds for his third 20-20 outing of the campaign. He's having a "career season," averaging 15.1 PPG and RPG. However, the Rockets miss Eric Gordon's scoring 'punch' (he has a career 16.6 PPG average). House (12.4) is getting extra minutes but he's no Gordon. The Raptors saw Kawhi "take his talents to LA" after leading the Raptors to the NBA title last season but Toronto has done just fine without him. The Raptors also kept 'chugging along' with Lowry (20.7-4.4-7.0) and Ibaka (13.8 & 6.5) sidelined. Both have returned, Ibaka two games ago and Lowry in that Tuesday home loss to Miami (final was 121-100 but that came in OT). Ibaka scored 13 points in each of his two games back, while averaging 6.5 PPG (it was like he never left). That was NOT the case for Lowry (see above). However, the five-time All-Star did record 11 assists with only one turnover (note: he's well-known for his shooting slumps). The 6-9 Siakam (25.1 & 8.6) has played at an All Star level and guard Fred VanVleet (18.7-3.8-7.4) has proven his Finals performance against the Warriors was no fluke. Back-up guard Powell (13.4 & 4.1) has taken advantage of extra "PT" with Lowry out and SF Anunoby (10.9 & 5.5) is proving he's an NBA regular. Is the Harden/Westbrook pairing really working in Houston? In the team's 2-OT loss at San Antonio, while Harden was scoring 50 points (and going 11 of 38 from the floor), Westbrook produced his 142nd career triple-double (19-10-10) but hoisted up a season-high 30 shots, making only SEVEN! On the season, Westbrook is shooting only 41.0%, including 22.9% on threes. Houston is 13-7 but just 10-10 ATS, while Toronto is 15-5 and 13-7 ATS (8-2 ATS at home). I'm playing Toronto, the more balanced team. Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* play is on North Carolina at 9:30 ET.
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12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
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12-04-19 | Heat v. Celtics -5.5 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Miami Heat are coming off a 121-110 overtime win over the Raptors at Toronto on Tuesday. Jimmy Butler scored the first eight points in the extra session, as part of his fifth career triple-double as Miami improved to 15-5 overall but the Heat are just a modest 7-5 on the road. The 14-5 Celtics are coming off a 1-1 trip to the New York City area over the weekend, losing 112-107 to the Nets at Barclays Center on Friday but bouncing back with a 113-104 win over the Knicks at MSG on Sunday. Butler finished with 22 points, a season-high 13 rebounds and 12 assists in the impressive win at Toronto. He leads the team averaging 19.0-6.0-6.7 but Miami's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are averaging 20-plus minutes per game, with SEVEN averaging in double digits (Olynyk just misses at 9.1). Duncan Robinson (11.7) had 22 points against the Raptors while making 6-of-9 three-pointers (he's now 14-of-22 from long distance over a three-game span). However, undrafted rookie Kendrick Nunn (15.7 PPG) is trending in the other direction, missing all nine of his three-point attempts in the win over the Raptors to fall to 2-for-20 over the same three-game stretch. More bad news comes Miami's way in that PG Dragic (15.9 & 5.0 APG) sat out Tuesday's game and already has been ruled out for the visit to Boston. Jayson Tatum scored 30 points and Jaylen Brown added 28 in Sunday's win at Madison Square Garden, as Boston overcame Smart's scoreless 20 minutes and a 6-for-18 shooting effort by Kemba Walker. That said, Walker has more than filled the 'hole' left at PG by Kyrie leaving for the Nets, averaging 21.6-4.7-50. Tatum (21.1 & 7.1) is now in his third season and constantly getting better plus with Hayward sidelined, Brown's roll has become more important (he's averaging 19.3 & 7.1). Some bad news is that the Celtics expect to play Wednesday without guard and team leader Marcus Smart (11.9-3.4-4.7), who exited Sunday's win over the Knicks with an oblique injury. Smart, also dealing with a cold, didn't practice Tuesday and has been labeled doubtful against Miami. "He's only going to play if he's 100 percent or close," head coach Brad Stevens said. Miami handed Toronto its first home loss in 10 chances this season, narrowing the list of NBA teams undefeated at home to three, Interestingly, all three of those teams play in the East. Phily is 10-0 at home and the other two are playing in this contest, Miami (8-0) and Boston (7-0). As noted above, the Heat are a modest 7-5 SU on the road and expecting them to win at Toronto and Boston on consecutive night's is "too big of an ask." Miami has lost three straight to Boston and 11 of its last 14 meetings with team. Lay the points with the Celtics. Good luck...Larry |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET.
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12-03-19 | Magic v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 127-120 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southeast) is on the Was Wizards at 7:05 ET.
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12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET.
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12-02-19 | Clemson v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Minnesota at 9:00 ET.
The Big Ten-ACC Challenge gets underway Monday with a pair of games, including 5-2 Clemson visiting 3-4 Minnesota. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but then won FIVE in row, including erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU 62-60 on Nov 24th in Las Vegas. However, the Tigers then lost two nights later 71-67 to Colorado, which is 6-0 and ranked 21st in the most recent AP poll. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 73-68 home loss to DePaul (Nov 29) and already had losses to Oklahoma, Butler and Utah on their resume. The loss to Colorado was the first time this season that the Tigers had allowed an opponent to reach 70 points. "Our guys are getting better," head coach Brad Brownell told reporters. "We're fighting. We've got to get better at executing a few things, but we're getting there. Our players work hard for us, and I love coaching them." 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (11.9 & 8.9) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack (15.4 & 5.6), a grad transfer from Alabama. Sophomore guard John Newman III (11.6 PPG) and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes (10.1 & 3.4 APG) are Clemson's other double digit scorers. Clemson's strength is its defense, allowing 61.0 PPG (41st) on 37.5% shooting (34th). Richard Pitino will sure miss guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. However, Pitino likes his team and the team's 3-4 start is unacceptable. The 6-10 Oturu (17.0 & 11;9) is off to a strong start and is joined up front by the 6-9 Demir (7.7 & 3.7), a graduate transfer from Drexel. Minnesota owns an excellent backcourt trio, led by PG Carr (13.0-5.9-6.3), joined by Willis (12.9) and Kalscheur (11.7). Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. This game IS important, as Minnesota opens Big Ten play with a game at Iowa (Dec 9) and the home to Ohio St (7-0 and ranked 10th) on Dec 15. Clemson is beatable and is traveling back from a three-day stay in Las Vegas, If Minnesota can't win here, it will be a LONG season for "little Ricky." Good luck...Larry |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019). The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best). MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2! I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However, Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much! One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home. Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" |
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12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17. The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010. Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd). There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0% for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games). DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th. Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Crusher is on the Tor Raptors at 6:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Pelicans at 5:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
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11-30-19 | Tulane v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET. Wisconsin opened the 2019 season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll. The Badgers won their first six games by outscoring their opponents by an amazing 255-29 margin. However, Wisconsin visited Illinois on Oct 19 and as a four-TD road favorite got beat 24-23. The Badgers then lost at Ohio St 38-7 the following Saturday, leaving the team's hope of winning the Big Ten West bleak. The reason being that Minnesota, coming off a a 7-6 season, got off to a blazing start. PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 and his Golden Gophers would win their first NINE games of 2019, the school's first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in the Nov 10 AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus rose to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. However, the Badgers lost a tough one 23-19 at Iowa on Nov 17. Minnesota bounced back with a 38-22 win at Northwestern last Saturday but with Wisconsin winning THREE in a row, the Badgers come to Minneapolis 6-2, one game behind the 7-1 Gophers " I don't think you could write a better story at least from a college football world perspective," P.J. Fleck told reporters. "College Gameday, the Twin Cities and Big Ten championship on the line in the longest-standing rivalry in college football."Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-30-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.
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11-29-19 | Utah State v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
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11-29-19 | VCU +3 v. Purdue | Top | 56-59 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on VCU at 9:30 ET. Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams have opened teh current season 6-0 and will take their No. 20 ranking in the latest AP poll into the Emerald Coast Classic (Niceville, Fl) with 3-2 Purdue. The Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll but after a 79-57 win over Green Bay, Purdue lost at home 70-66 to Texas and then 65-55 at Marquette.Home wins of 93-49 over Chicago St and 81-49 over Jacksonville St prove little. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team is guards Evans (15.2 & 3.2 APG)) and Jenkins (10.0) plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (11.5 & 10.5). Five guards get time in teh backcourt along with Evans and Jenkins, chipping in between 4.0 and 7.0 PPG. The 6-6 Vann (8.0 & 2.5) is really the only other frontcourt contributor helping Santos-Silva. "Shaka Ball” is back at VCU, even though Shaka Smart has been at Texas since the 205-16 season. Rhoades is a Shaka 'disciple' and the Rams are again employing withering, relentless pressure for 40 minutes as they did for the best of the Shaka years. VCU is among the nation’s leaders in TO margin and TOs forced (21 per game!). Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0). The Boilermakers have nowhere near VCU's depth. Guards Proctor (15.6-3.4-3.2) and Hunter (10.0 & 3.4) are the biggest backcourt contributors, while the 7-3 Haarms (12.0 & 6.6) and the 6-9 Wheeler (7.6 & 8.0) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all five opponents to fewer than 70 points to start the season (58.0 PPG on the season to rank 16th nationally). 'Plodding' Purdue has already lost to the real Shaka Smart and Texas at Mackey Arena back on Nov 9 and I expect them to be at LEAST a step or two behind Rhoads' "Shaka 2.0" team. VCU is the better team getting points. Luv it! Good luck...Larry |
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11-29-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET.
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11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.
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11-29-19 | Michigan v. Gonzaga -2.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Atlantis Championship Showdown play is on Gonzaga at 2:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who would have to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but now finds itself in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis after beating Iowa St (83-76) and No. 6 North Carolina (73-64). Waiting in the title game will be 8-0 Gonzaga, which is ranked No. 8 in the latest AP poll. You may have heard of Gonzaga and its head coach, Mark Few. When Few arrived in Spokane, the "Zags" had been to two NCAA tourneys in school history. All Few has done is go 20-for-20, entering this season on a streak of FIVE consecutive Sweet 16 appearances (reaching at least the Elite 8 in THREE of those five). Gonzaga eased past Southern Miss 94-69 on Wednesday but then needed OT to get past No. 11 Oregon 73-72 on Thanksgiving (this just in...the Ducks are an excellent team!). Michigan's style under Howard has been to push the offensive tempo. The win over North Carolina marked SIX straight in which the Wolverines scored at least 70 points, as the Wolverines are SIXTH in the nation in field-goal percentage (52.7) and 34th in scoring (82.5 PPG). PG Simpson is the team leader (12.2-4.5-9.2) but junior guard Brooks connected on 9-of-14 from the floor, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc on Thursday to score 24 points. That raised his scoring average on the season to 13.7, second on the team behind 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers (16.3). 7-1 senior center Jon Teske has chipped in 12.3 PPG plus adds a team-best 8.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Gonzaga lost a 'ton' off last year's team, including a pair of 6-8 forwards who both went in the first round of the NBA draft, Hachimura (19.7 & 6.5) and Clarke (16.9 & 8.6). Also moving on were guards Norvelll (14.9-4.3-3.1) and Perkins (11.0 & 6.3 APG) but the refrain at Gonzaga is, "no worries." Gonzaga is 'loaded' up front with the 6-11 Petrusev (Serbia), who leads with 17.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG. The 6-7 Kispert (14.1), the 6-10 Tillie (11.7 & 5.7 in just three games) plus 6-10 freshman Timme adds 11.1 & 5.6. A&M transfer Gilder (11.0), No. Texas transfer Woolridge (9.5-5.5-3.9) and returning guard Ayayi (9.3-6.5-3.6) are the main contributors on the perimeter. Gonzaga is averaging 87.1 PPG (7th) on 50.9% shooting (13th), while allowing 61.9 PPG (plenty good enough with its scoring output at the other end). Michigan came to Paradise Island in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis unranked, but can leave with a championship. However, after upsetting North Carolina, I don't see back-to-back wins over top-10 teams being 'in the cards.' The Bulldogs led Oregon by 17 points in the early going and by five points with a minute left in regulation, before having to rally in overtime. Mark Few has too many options and could counter a fast Michigan team with a big lineup, a strategy the Bulldogs employed against Oregon. Few often paired the 6-foot-10 Tillie with 6-foot-11 Petrusev, utilizing the former in the high post and wing and Petrusev on the low block. Kudos to Howard's fast start but he's got a LONG way to go to match Few's coaching acumen. Good luck..Larry |
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11-28-19 | Creighton v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 52-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on San Diego St at 10:30 ET.
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss +3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Oregon at 9:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Wichita St at 8:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Heat v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET.
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11-26-19 | Colorado -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on Colorado at 11:30 ET. Tad Boyle took the Colorado job in 2010-11 and won 20-plus games in FIVE of his first six seasons (three NCAA appearances). However, mediocre 19-15 and 17-15 seasons followed, before Colorado went 23-13 last year. The Buffs didn't make the Big Dance last season but all FIVE starters returned and big things were expected. The Buffs have opened 4-0 and and are currently ranked 23rd in the AP's latest poll. Colorado played an 'ugly' first half last night against Wyoming (game was tied at 15-all) but the Buffs pulled away for a 56-41 victory. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but has since won FIVE in row, after erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU, 62-60. I really like this Colorado team, which is holding opponents to 54.5 PPG (11th) and is led by three double-digit scorers. The 6-7 Tyler Bey (14.0 & 12.0 ) is a terrific player and is joined in double figures by PG Wright (12.8-4.0-3.8) and the 6-7 Schwartz (12.5). Some inside 'muscle' comes from the 6-8 Bailey (7.8 & 7.3) and the 6-7 Siewert (6.8 & 5.5), who comes off the bench. 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (10.0 & 8.2) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but led Sunday night's comeback by scoring all 13 of his points in the second half, to go with 12 rebounds. Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack, a grad transfer from Alabama. He scored 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win over TCU. He leads the team in scoring (16.2) while also shooting 44.7 percent (17-of-38) from three-point range. Sophomore guard John Newman III and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes are tied for second in scoring (10.8) and have combined for 32 assists and 14 steals. Just how good is Clemson? The loss to Va Tech is understandable (Hokies are 6-0 and just beat Mich St) but before scoring the final 15 points of the game Sunday to send the contest to OT (and win), the Tigers' previous four wins all came at home over Coppin St, South Carolina-Upstate, Lehigh and Delaware St. I don't see Clemson "coming back" against this talented, balanced and excellent defensive team in Colorado. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-19 | Dayton -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Dayton at 8:00 ET.
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11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -3 | Top | 78-51 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Late-Breaker is on Bradley at 8:30 ET.
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.
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11-25-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET.
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11-25-19 | Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Loyola-Chicago at 1:30 ET.
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -6 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -117 | 105 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southwest) is on the Hou Rockets at 3:35 ET.
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"
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11-23-19 | Blazers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blax\zers at 8:05 ET.
Portland won 53 games last season and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. At 5-11 to open the current season, Portland is at least in the running for this season's "Most Disappointing Team." It sure hasn't helped that center Jusef Nurkic is not expected back until mid-Feb or that promising power forward Zach Collins' shoulder will keep him sidelined until March. The team's best player, Lillard (28.6-4.9-7.1), has missed the last two games with a back issue (is listed as probable here) plus center Hassan Whiteside (14.9 & 12.0) has fought nagging injuries all season and is listed as questionable for this one. The Blazers opened this six-game road trip with a win at San Antonio (everyone is beating the Spurs these days!) but then have lost at Houston, New Orleans and Milwaukee, while allowing an average of 128 points! The Blazers wrap up the trip with this game in Cleveland and then a Monday game at Chicago. The 4-11 Cavs are in a three-way tie with the Knicks and Hawks for the East's worst record and only the sad-sack 3-14 Warriors own a worse record in the entire NBA. Cleveland welcomes Portland to town on a SIX-game losing streak, after getting routed 143-101 at Dallas on Friday. Porzingis sat for Dallas but the magnificent Doncic had 30 points and 14 assists (missed a triple-double with seven rebounds), as the Cavs allowed Dallas to shoot 58% from the floor, including a blistering 20 of 37 on threes. That's some defense? It will sure help if Lillard returns to join McCollum, who is averaging 22,3-4.6-3.9. Hood has started all 14 games he has played in for the Blazers, averaging 11.4 PPG. A sign Portland may be desperate is that the team signed 'Melo, who did not play all last season. He's averaged 14.0 & 5.0 in two games but when has this guy ever been a "good influence" on a team? PF Kevin Love (17.9 & 11.8) and center Thompson (14.1 & 9.9) are solid players for the Cavs plus second-year guard Sexton (17.7) is proving he belongs in the NBA. Clarkson chips in 13.5 PPG off the bench. Neither team has shown much interest in playing much defense these days (see above). The Cavs are going nowhere this season, as Cleveland's supposed best player (leader?) is Love. The last time I checked, he was averaging ONE offensive rebound per game. The Cavs' six-game slide is no fluke, as there will be plenty of losing the rest of the way for this team. Meanwhile, the Blazers WILL get things straightened out. Even without a healthy roster, the Blazers will "take care of" the Cavs, who are playing on back-to-back nights for just the second time this season. The first time saw them lose 123-105 at the pathetic Knicks. The Blazers beat the Cavs 129-112 in Portland last season and 123-110 in Cleveland. That ounds about right to me, here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | California +3 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET. California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West. Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | UCLA +13.5 v. USC | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 42 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET. It's been quite a year for the American Athletic Conference in 2019, as in both the Nov 3 and Nov 10 AP polls, the league had FOUR schools represented in the top-25. Three of those schools remain in the most recent AP poll (Nov 17) entering Saturday games. Cincy checks in at No. 17, Memphis at No. 18 and SMU at No. 21 (all are 9-1). The AAC school that dropped out this past Sunday was Navy, which was manhandled 52-20 last Saturday at Notre Dame. The good news for 7-2 Navy (5-1 AAC-West) is that it has a chance to quickly bounce-back from that crushing loss, as it hosts SMU on Saturday. 9-1 SMU (5-1 AAC-West) squandered a chance to take command of the AAC West when it lost 54-48 at Memphis on Nov 2 (Memphis is 5-1 in the West, like Navy and SMU). The Mustangs survived 59-51 at home over ECU on Nov 9, keeping its chances of advancing to the AAC championship game intact and had last weekend off, giving them an extra week of prep time. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. QB Shane Buechele (Texas transfer) has thrown for 3,195 yards with 28 TDs against eight interceptions this season. WR James Proche, named a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist as the nation's top wide receiver, established season highs with 14 catches for 167 yards and two scores against the Pirates to extend his touchdown streak to nine games and eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight year (he has 88 catches and 12 TDs on the season). While SMU's passing game gets most of the credit for the team's 45.1 PPG average (6th), RB Xavier Jones has rushed for 1,063 yards (5.4 YPA) and 18 of his school-record 20 TDs have come on the ground (note: he has scored in every game!). Of concern for SMU is its defense, which is allowing 32.7 PPG (104th). More on SMU's D in a bit. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and he led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expected a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and it has "backed me up" by going 7-2. Navy entered its game at Notre Dame last Saturday at 7-1 and ranked 21st but the Midshipmen got 'rolled' (see above). Navy was averaging a nation-best 357.9 yards rushing but was limited to 281 against Notre Dame. That included 117 by QB Malcolm Perry (his sixth straight game reaching the century mark) but Perry fumbled three times and was replaced in the third quarter. One of the biggest turnarounds for Navy this season has been a defense that was allowing 310.6 YPG on the season, before yielding nearly that many in the first half last week (Navy allowed 410 for the game). However, even after that poor effort, Navy enters this contest still No. 1 in rushing ( 349.7 YPG / 5.9 YPA) and averaging 37.9 PPG (13th). The Navy D comes in allowing a modest 21.9 PPG (34th) on 321.9 YPG (22nd). Here's the situation facing BOTH teams. There's a three-way tie for first in the AAC-West but like SMU, Navy has also lost to Memphis. The bottom line is, this is basically an elimination game for both schools, if they want to keep their West Division and conference title hopes alive. What Sonny Dykes has accomplished at SMU is impressive but how can one trust SMU on the road vs a quality team like Navy (note: Midshipmen are 5-0 SU at home this season, averaging 39.4 PPG)? Look at SMU's last five games. Except for an impressive 45-21 home blowout over Temple on Oct 19, SMU has allowed 37, 31, 54 and 51 points. Yes, SMU lost just ONE of those games but that was to Memphis, when the Mustangs allowed 514 yards and the six-point margin was aided by two 4th Q TDs (and a two-point conversion), after SMU had fallen behind by 21 points. The three wins in that stretch came 43-37 at home over Tulsa in three OTs (Tulsa ran up 500 yards). SMU allowed 510 yards at Houston in a 34-31 win and then allowed a WHOPPING 644 yards in its 59-51 win at home over ECU, as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Let me remind all that Tulsa , Houston and ECU are each 3-7 on the season, while going a combined 2-16 in AAC games.I STRONGLY believe Navy is the superior team and will prevail here comfortably, putting the Notre Dame 'disaster' in the rear-view mirror. Good luck..Larry |
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11-23-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on St John's at 2:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Central Florida v. Tulane +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.
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11-22-19 | Temple v. USC -10 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on USC at 11:00 ET. Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has FOUR teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and Washington). However, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points, for the first time since 1963, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points. The 5-0 Trojans will try to keep that streak alive on Friday night when they host unbeaten Temple (3-0). The Owls return three starters and 10 lettermen from a 23-10 team that lost to Belmont in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament. However, longtime head coach Fran Dunphy (who led Penn and Temple to a combined 17 NCAA appearances), finally retired. Yes, Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll but comes in off a 70-65 Big-5 win over La Salle on Saturday plus also has won home games over Drexel (70-62) and Morgan State (75-57). Junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis posted his third straight double-double vs LaSalle and is averaging 18.1-11.0-4.3. Senior guard Quinton Rose (16.0) and fellow guard Alanui Moore (10.3) join Pierre-Louis in double figures.The frontcourt consists of the 6-7 Perry (7.7), the 6-7 Moorman (5.0 & 6.3) and the 6-11 Damion Moore (4.0 & 5.5). USC is coming in off a 91-84 home victory over Pepperdine on Tuesday that saw 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu score a career-high 33 points, the most by a Trojan freshman since O.J. Mayo scored 37 in a 2008 game against Arizona State. Okongwu (18.2 & 9.4) helped lead Chino Hills High School to three state titles and is already a star in LA. However, Okongwu is just part of an impressive Trojan front line that also includes 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (16.4 & 9.8), who was a preseason first team All-Pac-12 pick, as well as 6-10 freshman Isaiah Mobley (9.4 & 5.0), a McDonald's All-American who had 14 points in 18 minutes off the bench against the Waves. Senior guard Mathews (11.8) is a steadying influence and along with Rakocevic, became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark earlier this season. Temple flies a long way for this contest and does not own the quickness nor the SIZE to match the Trojans. Temple already has FOUR players averaging 30-plus minutes and comes in shooting a putrid 39.2% (307th) on the young season. USC is averaging 80.8 PPG and the Trojans are 33-4 SU in their last 37 home non-conference games. Make that 34-4, with tonight's win coming "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 11-4 Houston Rockets will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 10-5 LA Clippers. The two teams met back in Houston on Oct 13, with the Rockets winning 102-93, as James Harden poured in 47 points. However, unlike in that meeting in Houston, when the Clippers take the court tonight against the Rockets, BOTH Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be in the starting lineup. LA's "dynamic duo" were part of a victory in their first time together on the court Wednesday night, as the Clippers survived OT to beat the Celtics 107-104. As for the Rockets, they had an eight-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's 105-95 loss in Denver. It was Houston's lowest scoring output of the season plus James Harden scored "just" 27 points, snapping a streak of at least 36 in EIGHT straight games. Harden only took 16 shots against Denver (in comparison, he hoisted 41 against Minnesota on Saturday), as Houston was just 12-of-38 from three-point range. That said, Harden gave Denver's defense little (no?) credit for Houston's shooting woes. "They just double-teamed every possession," Harden told reporters. "They got lucky. They got away with one. We didn't execute how we needed to." OK, if you say so James. Harden continues to post remarkable numbers (38.4-5.8-7.5) and I guess he and Westbrook (21.8-7.9-6.9) have found a way to work together, However, I'm just not sold (I had Denver on Wednesday). I noted in my Wednesday write up that center Clint Capela (13.9 & 13.7) "is one of the NBA's least appreciated big men," and he scored 12 points while pulling down 21 rebounds in the loss at Denver. Note: He's recorded 20 or more rebounds in five straight games, the best such streak since Ben Wallace of the Pistons also had five straight in March of 2003. However, I also noted on Wednesday that the Rockets are without Eric Gordon (a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career) and that the team's depth is VERY questionable. Leonard (25.8-8.6-5.7) scored 17 points but was just 7-of-20 shooting, while George (28.3-6.3-4.8 in four games) recorded 25 points and eight assists in the successful first pairing in terms of the victory column. "The fact of the matter is we are going to have growing pains, and I think the most positive thing is we understood that," George told reporters afterward. "Nobody was pointing fingers or dropping their heads in huddles. ... At no point was this team ever dysfunctional." While Leonard and George were drawing double teams, Lou Williams (22.5 & 5.7 APG) scored 27 points and Patrick Beverley (7.7-6.9-3.0) had a superb all-around game with a career-best 16 rebounds to go along with 14 points and seven assists. Leonard and George each played 37 minutes against Boston and their fitness could be tested by the fast-paced Rockets as they learn to play with one another. "It's pretty much just finding each other's spots and knowing the plays," Leonard said of potential improvement. "It's still tough. We are both kind of on a minute restriction - hard to get into a flow. But just knowing plays and each other's spots and the language on the defensive end. Repetition is what we need right now." I've NEVER been a fan of Harden or Westbrook and I expect the Clippers to "take care of business" tonight, avenging that Nov 13 loss (sans George). While Houston's depth can be rightly questioned (note: Danuel House, averaging 11.2 PPG, departed the Denver game and is unlikely to play Friday), the Clippers own an OUTSTANDING bench led by Williams (see above), Harrell (18.1 & 7.3) plus Green (8.1 & 7.0in 22 minutes). Green flies a little under the radar, as he's played in all 15 games, scoring in double digits seven times and grabbing 10-plus rebounds three times. It's Kawhi and Paul over James & Russell, with an assist from the LA bench. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -4 | 92-96 | Push | 0 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers in the first round but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kyrie Irving left for Brooklyn and Al Horford for Philly but Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joined an excellent trio of frontcourt players. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season, after winning a seven-game series over the Spurs and then losing one vs the Blazers, led by center Nikola Jokic's incredible playoff numbers (25.1-13.0-8.4). The 11-3 Celtics dropped a 107-104 overtime decision in LA to the Clippers on Wednesday for their second loss in three games, following a 10-game winning streak. "We believe, truly, that we can compete with anybody in this league," PG Marcus Smart said afterward. "But it's going to take every possession. We can't take it for granted. We got to take every possession like it's our last possession and we got to really protect the ball." Also on Wednesday, the 10-3 Nuggets figured out how to slow down James Harden by holding him to 27 points, after he had scored at least 36 in each of the previous eight games. Jokic delivered 27 points and 12 rebounds for his sixth double-double of the season. Boston PG Kemba Walker (22.6-4.9-4.8) has been terrific but he had just 13 points on 4-of-17 shooting against the Clippers. In contrast, standout forward Jayson Tatum (20.9 & 7.4) scored a season-best 30 points in the game. However, the Celtics missed their first 16 three-point attempts, finishing 12-of-45 (26.7%). Brown (18.5 & 7.5) is also having an excellent season, although the loss of Hayward (18.9-7.1-4.1 on 55.5% shooting) will take its toll until he returns (late Dec?). Denver PG Jamal Murray (18.5-4.5-5.2) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis but then scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Wednesday's win over Houston. He has battled consistency issues all season but remains a big part of this team. Jokic checks in averaging 17.2-9.0-5.8 plus the rest of the starting-five are also averaging in double digits. Swingman Barton (14.8 &7.4), PF Millsap (13.8 & 6.1) and SG Harris (10.6) round out the group. Denver's bench may not be quite as 'deep' as last season but PFs Grant (9.2 & 3.4) and Plumlee (6.2 & 5.0) plus PG Morris (6.8 & 3.6 APG) contribute, nightly. This is a tough spot for Boston, playing the final contest of a five-game, eight-day road trip at altitude. Denver ranks third in the NBA in scoring defense (102.3 PPG) and fifth in defending three-pointers (32 percent). "When we're locked in defensively, we're a really good team," Nuggets guard Gary Harris said after the win over Houston and the Nuggets are 7-0 when holding teams under 100 points. The Nuggets won both of last season's meetings with Boston and the fact that Murray scored a career-best 48 points in the meeting here at Pepsi Center should help his "inconsistency." The Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home last season and I expect an 'easy' Denver victory in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Houston v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET. Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak. Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th). There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th). The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season. Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-19 | Texas -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 4-0 Texas entered the latest AP poll this past Monday at No. 22 (first time ranked in nearly a year) and will take that ranking to Madison Square Garden to meet 3-1 Georgetown in the 2K Empire Classic. Thursday's game marks just the third meeting between Texas and Georgetown (first since 2012) with the series tied at a game apiece. Texas won last year's NIT, which holds its Final 4 at MSG (Longhorns beat TCU in the semis and Lipscomb in the title game). As for Georgetown, "The Garden" is a VERY familiar venue, as the Hoyas have played roughly 100 games there, most coming in the Big East Tournament. Missing from last year's NIT champs are big men Osetkowski (11.1 & 7.2) and Hayes (10.0 & 5.0), who was a one-and-done (8th overall pick of the 2019 draft by Atlanta). Guard Roach was suspended THREE different times in his stay at Austin but he ended his Texas career by being named the NIT's most outstanding player. All will be missed but Texas has an experienced group of players back. Depth on the perimeter is a strength, led by PG Coleman (14.5-4.5-4.3) and Jones (13.3), who are supported by Ramey (9.0 & 5.3), Febres (8.0) and freshman Williams (5.3). Taking over up front for Osetkowski and Hayes are the 6-8 Liddell (9.3 & 5.0) and the 6-9 Sims (8.3 & 7.3). This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news is, FOUR starters are back, although the loss is a big one. Govan averaged 17.5 & 7.5 in making the all-Big East first team. 7-0 senior Yurtseven (17.0 & 12.5) is Georgetown's best player this season, joined up front by a trio of fowards who have combined to average right about 30 points and 11 rebounds per game. The Hoyas start three guards, PG Akinjo (12.3 & 4.5 APG), McClung (12.3) and Mosley (7.5 & 3.30. Georgetown's three wins have come over 'nobodies,' while its lone loss came 81-66 at home to a Penn St team that was just 14-18 last season. Shaka Smart came to Texas with great fanfare, after a terrific run at VCU (Google it). However, his Texas teams have made just two NCAAs in his first four seasons at Austin, with both teams getting bounced in the first round. Last year's NIT title was 'nice,' but Smart was not hired to win NIT championships. Smart's trademark has always been "team defense" and Texas has held all opponents to 66 points or less, allowing 55.2 PPG (18th) on 36.3% shooting (45th). Texas has won its lone 'test' of the young season, winning 70-66 at then-No. 23 Purdue. A win here and Texas will get a chance at current No. 1 Duke in Friday's tourney championship (assuming the Dookies beat Cal). I look forward to seeing how Texas fares against Duke but first, the Longhorns will have to dispatch Georgetown. My bet says that win comes convincingly! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | San Diego State -5 v. San Diego | Top | 66-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on SD State at 11:00 ET. It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years. However, the team's 21-13 record left them "sitting out" postseason play last year. San Diego welcomes SD St to the Jenny Craig Pavilion off a a 21-15 season that earned them an NIT bid. SD St enters 3-0 to open the current season, while San Diego is off to a 2-3 start. The Aztecs rely on a trio of guards and frontcourt players. The backcourt features Flynn (15.3 & 6.3 APG), Schakel (13.0) and Feagin (10.0), while the frontcourt consists of the 6-6 Mitchell (9.0 & 5.3), the 6-10 Mensah (8.7 & 10.3) and the 6-10 Wetzell (6.0 & 7.0). As always, the Aztecs are a strong defensive team, allowing 58.0 PPG (34th). San Diego lost its top-four scorers from last season and like SD St, relies on three key perimeter players and three more in the frontcourt. Guards Calcaterra (16.8), Hartfield (11.4 & 6.8) and Humphrey (9.0) team with the 6-10 Massalski (11.0 & 5.0), the 6-7 Jean-Marie (8.6 & 8.4) and the 6-7 Floresca (7.0 & 4.4). San Diego may be at home but it is in a tough spot here. The Toreros are averaging just 66.2 PPG (278th) on 40.2% shooting (286th). SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher was an assistant for 18 years under Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then here at SDSU, where he was known as a "head coach in waiting." He took aver at SDSU when Fisher retired and took the Aztecs to an NCAA appearance in 2017-18 but as noted above, fell short of ANY postseason bid last year. I expect this year's team to be back in postseason play and tonight, to avenge last year 's 73-61 loss at home to local rival San Diego. Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -3.5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on UNLV at 10:00 ET. Danny Kaspar led the Texas State Bobcats to a 24-10 record last season (his 1st at San Marcos), the school's most wins in 25 years. Kaspar had the challenge this season of replacing three starters and the Bobcats visit the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 3-2 (more in a little bit). UNLV was unhappy with Marvin Menzies and he was let go after three seasons. The Rebels brought in TJ Otzelberger, who in three seasons at South Dakota St, took the school two to NCAA tourneys, including winning 28 games in the 2017-18 season. However, UNLV has opened a disappointing 2-3. Texas St is led by guards Pearson (15.0 & 4.0) and Harrell (8.4 & 45.0) and its best frontcourt player is the 6-8 Small (12.2 & 8.6), a JC transfer. Six more players are getting 14-plus minutes per game , while chipping in 5.2-to-7.6 PPG. Hardy was UNLV's top returning scorer and the junior guard is leading the way averaging 19.0-3.4-3.0. Texas graduate transfer Mitrou-Long has been an excelelent backcourt partner, adding 12.6-4.6-3.2. Up front, the 6-7 Tillman (the Pac 12's 6th man of the year last season), has been allowed to play this season and is scoring 12.4 PPG with 4.4 RPG. The 6-11 Diong is averaging 7.2 PPG and a team-high 10.6 RPG. Texas St has won all three at home but the opponents were 'cup cakes' Texas Lutheran, PV A&M and Jackson St. The Bobcats have lost both road games, at Air Force and Baylor. Yes, UNLV is 2-3 but the losses have in OT vs Kansas St and on the road vs Pac 12 schools Cal (also in OT) and UCLA. The Rebels haven't beaten anyone of of note yet, winning at home against Purdue-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian. A victory over Texas St will not be considered a "quality win" but UNLV could sure use a "confidence-builder." I say the Rebels get a "W" (and cover) in this one, as Texas St is just 5-12-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. It's the 11-3 Houston Rockets and the 9-3 Denver Nuggets meeting tonight at Pepsi Center in a matchup of two of the Western Conference's best teams.The Rockets have won EIGHT in a row led by James Harden (more in a bit), while the Nuggets open a four-game homestand looking to break through against Houston, which has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Harden scored 36 in Monday's 132-108 rout of the Portland Trail Blazers (Rockets' 8th straight win), while PGF Russell Westbrook contributed 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his 141st career triple-double. Harden is averaging an NBA-best 39.2 PPG (also 5.7 RPG and 7.6 APG), while Westbrook checks in at 21.6-8.4-7.1. Center Clint Capela (14.1 & 13.1) is one of the NBA's least appreciated "big men" but the Rockets are without Erc]ic Gordon, a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season and have opened 9-3. Center Jokic led Denver in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). However, Jokic has not quite been that good so far this season, although his line does read 16.4-8.8-6.0. Recent good news is that PG Jamal Murray (19.2-4.8-4.8) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis, when the Nuggets had their highest point total of the season in a 131-114 road win. PF Paul Millsap (14.1 & 6.1) matched his season high of 23 points against Memphis and has reached double digits in six straight contests. Some (many?) thought it would be a problem having two ball-dominant guards on the floor at the same time in Harden and Westbrook, but through 14 games the plan has worked. Then again, the Rockets are just 7-7 ATS this season. Yes, the Rockets are a slight underdog here so a win means a cover but I believe Denver's depth will be the difference. Jokic and Murray typically carry the main offensive load but Millsap (see above), Barton (14.8 & 7.4) and Harris (10.7) are also capable of big offensive nights. Denver arguably owns the NBA's deepest bench and was one of the main reasons Denver had the NBA's best home record last season at 34-7. Tough two-game road trip for the Rockets (here and at the Clippers on Friday) and I think they will be fortunate to win either one. I won't get ahead of myself, so tonight the play is on Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-19 | Montana State v. Grand Canyon -6 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Grand Canyon at 9:00 ET. Danny Sprinkle attended Montana St and back in 1996, scored 30 points in the Big Sky championship game to lead the Bobcats into the "Big Dance." The Bobcats haven't been back since. However, on April 4, 2019, Sprinkle was hired as the 23rd head men's basketball coach at Montana State. He took over at a school which has won between seven and 16 games the last five seasons. Dan Majerle had a 14-year NBA career and was the associate head coach for the Phoenix Suns from 2008–2013. On March 15, 2013, it was announced that Majerle would coach for Grand Canyon University in their its season as a Division I team. In Malerle's third season, he led the Antelopes to 27 wins and into the CIT quarterfinals, then followed with 22, 22 and 20-win seasons. Each of the last two seasons, Grand Canyon has lost in the WAC championship game, to New Mexico St (one win shy of an NCAA berth). Sprinkle has an "international cast of characters," led PG Frey (17.2-5.8-6.0) from Noway. Two London-born players are the 6-9 Belo (11.2 & 6.2) and guard Adamu (9.8 & 4.2) plus guard Paulo (9.4) hails from Toronto. The Bobcats are off to an impressive start at 4-1, which includes three wins in THREE days in Greensboro, NC playing in the Spartan Classic. Mon St beat App St 59-56, host UNC-Greensboro 67-66 and Ten Tech, 52-39. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon stumbled out of the gate with THREE straight losses, before beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-54. Grand Canyon lost two key players from last year's team in the 6-10 Finke (12.1 & 5.1) and PG Milstead (10.3 & 3.6 APG) but Majerle has a solid team. Guard Johnson (13.5 & 6.8) leads the team in scoring and rebounding plus four more players average in double figures. That group includes guard Brown (12.8 & 4.2), freshman Blacksher (12.2 & 5.2) and 6-7 graduate transfer swingman Jenkins (10.2 & 3.8) plus the returning 6-10 Lever (11.5 & 2.8). I can't explain Grand Canyon's early stumbles but Montana State just finished playing three games in three days in Greensboro (Fri-Sun) and now flies to Phoenix with only ONE day between playing a FOURTH game in five days! That's asking A LOT! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West with a 12-4 record in 2018 behind a MVP performance by QB Patrick Mahomes. KC then opened 2019 win FOUR straight wins, averaging 33.8 PPG with Mahomes averaging 377.5 YPG passing with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, the Colts and Texans then 'solved' Mahomes to some extent, handing KC back-to-back losses. KC visited Denver for a Thursday game to kick off Week 7 and while the Chiefs won 30-6, Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap. Moore filled in admirably for Mahomes the next two games, with KC losing a hard-fought game to Green Bay but then edged the Vikings, 26-23. Mahomes didn't miss a beat in his return from that two-game absence, completing a career-high 36 passes for 446 yards and three TDs but Kansas City lost 35-32 at Tennessee. The Chiefs' once sizable advantage in the AFC West is now gone, following losses in FOUR of their last six games. The 6-4 Chiefs look to stem the tide on Monday night when they travel to Mexico City to face the Los Angeles Chargers, tied with the 6-4 Oakland Raiders for first-place in the division. The 4-6 LA Chargers saw their two-game "mini" winning streak end in Week 10, losing 26-24 at Oakland. Philip Rivers entered Week 11 leading the league in passing yards (2,816) but was also third in interceptions (10). He had three in LA's last game against Oakland, including a "pick-6" that loomed large in that 26-24 loss. The Chargers were among the league's better teams in not committing turnovers the last two seasons but they have 16 giveaways this season and their TO ratio of minus-6 is better than only FIVE teams. More notably, FIVE of their turnovers have occurred in goal-to-go situations! Last year's game between the Chiefs and Rams was relocated to Los Angeles less than a week before the game when the field at Mexico City's Azteca Stadium was deemed unplayable because of rain and the stadium having hosted concerts less than a month before the game. Both coaches said they have received favorable updates about the turf going into the game. The Chargers have spent the week at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs to get acclimated to the altitude, while the Chiefs have kept their same routine. Mahomes enters this game with no health issues and KC has to be thrilled with the play of WR Tyreek Hill. He become the first player in franchise history to record at least 140 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games, as he followed up his 140-yard effort in a 26-23 win over Minnesota on Nov 3 (with Moore at QB) with a career-best 11 catches for 157 yards and one TD against the Titans (Mahomes was back at QB for that one). RB Damien Williams had a season-high 24 touches resulting in 109 scrimmage yards (77 rushing, 32 receiving) against Tennessee. His backfield partner McCoy could use more work, as he's averaging 5.2 YPA but has a modest 72 carries on the season. Mahomes has a deep group of receivers, as besides Hill, there is TE Klece (56 catches), Watkins (40 catches despite missing two games) plus Hardman and Robinson. The KC defense is allowing 148.1 YPG on the ground (30th) and 23.9 PPG on the season (20th). Sure Rivers is on pace for another 4,000-yard season (maybe 4,500 yards?) but the running game has given him little support all season (86.1 YPG ranks 25th) and the Chargers come in averaging a very modest 20.7 PPG (21st). Melvin Gordon did rush for a season-high 108 yards in the loss at Oakland but he's still averaging just 3.5 YPA and I'm not even a little convinced he's back to being the player we saw from 2016-18. The D is good though, allowing 19.4 PPG (6th) on 318.3 YPG (5th). This is a HUGE game for KC, as the Chirefs have a bye in Week 12 and then in Week 13, will host the Raiders. The Raiders are at the Jets this coming Sunday, so could very well move to 7-4, meaning if KC doesn't win here, the Chiefs could be a game back of the Raiders in that Week 13 contest. Mahomes had little troiuble against LA's defense last season, passing for six TDs and zero INTs, posting QB ratings of 127.5 and 110.3. Yes, the Chargers did beat the Chiefs 29-28 in a Week 15 contest but that win eended a NINE-game losing streak for the Chargers against the Chiefs. "Series form" returns here, as KC gets the win AND cover! Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Knicks at 7:05 ET. Two of the East's worst teams square off tonight at MSG, as the 4-8 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 3-10 NY Knicks. The Cavaliers come to New York having dropped three straight, after losing 114-95 to Philadelphia at home on Sunday afternoon. The Knicks were off on Sunday, after suffering a last-second 103-102 loss Saturday night to the visiting Charlotte Hornets. The Cavs' last win came over the Knicks, 108-87 in New York back on Nov 10. The Cavs took an 18-point halftime lead in that one, as Collin Sexton finished with 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Sexton is in his second season and is averaging 18.2 PPG, tying him with Kevin Love (18.2 & 12.1) for the team lead. Love scored just 12 points in Sunday's loss, after averaging 20.5 in his previous two games. Center Tristan Thompson (14.9 & 10.5) was just a rebound shy of his ninth double-double of the season (12 & 9) against Philly. Cleveland has a fourth double-digit scorer in guard Clarkson (14.8). New York owns its only two wins this month over improving Dallas but has yet to post back-to-back victories this season. The Knicks followed a Nov 8 win at Dallas with the above-mentioned home loss to the Cavs and then after beating Dallas again this past Thursday, lost 103-102 to visiting Charlotte on Friday. The Knicks could not hold an eight-point lead in the final six minutes, as the Hornets won on a three-pointer with 2.8 seconds remaining. “We didn’t take the game,” Knicks forward Julius Randle told the New York Post. “We let them stay around instead of us really taking the game.” Randle (15.5-9.5-3.9) leads the team in rebounds and assists, while fellow forward Morris (18.2 & 5.9) leads in scoring, with rookie RJ Barrett justifying being picked third overall in last June’s draft by averaging 15.8-5.8-3.8. The Knicks were riding high after beating the Mavs on Thursday night and then leading by as many as 15 points Saturday vs Charlotte, before 'spitting out the bit.' I doubt I'll be 'on' the Knicks very often this season but they are catching the Cavs on the second of a back-to-back and if head coach David Fizdale can't get his team to win in a spot like this, his 'seat' will go from 'hot' to 'boiling.' Cleveland is 'ripe for the taking' in this one and I'll back the Knicks. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West. There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season. Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points. OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Orl Magic at 6:05 ET. The Orlando Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, the Magic have won THREE of the their last four as they get set to host the Washington Wizards on Sunday.The Wizards will play the entire season with All Star PG John Wall and are not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Washington has opened just 3-7 The Wizards wrap up a three-game road trip here in Orlando, after losing 140-133 at Boston and winning 137-116 at Minnesota. Bradley Beal was expected to have a "career year" with Wall sidelined and coming off a 44-point effort in Friday's win at Minnesota, he's doing just that. He's averaging 29.7-4.6-4.9 with FIVE more Wizards averaging between 11.4 and 14. PPG. One of those players is the 6-11 Mortitz Wagner (2nd-year pro out of Michigan), who turned in a 30 & 15 effort against the T-wolves.The Wizards can score (117.3 PPG ranks 3rd) but they are also allowing 119.6 PPG, which ranks 28th in a 30-team league. Speaking about scoring, after being held to just 95.1 PPG during a 2-6 start, the Magic have averaged 109.8 PPG over their last five games, including 110.8 over the first four of a five-game homestand in which they've one THREE of four. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.82& 11.7) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.3) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one that had started together in the team's first 11 games. Isaac (ankle) sat out Friday but returned to practice on Saturday and is probable to return. SG Fournier (16.2) is a scorer on the perimeter and is coming off a season-high 26 points in Friday's 111-109 win over the Spurs PGs Fultz (9.8 & 3.2 APG) and Augustin (9.6 & 4.5 APG) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting seven and Augustin, five. Terrence Ross (10.3) has done a great job off the bench and after missing back-to-back games in early November (knee), has averaged 15.0 PPG in his three games back. The Magic have begun to resemble the playoff team of last year recently and that should continue here, as they can conclude their homestand with a 4-1 record by winning tonight. As good as Beal is, I'm betting "under 44 points" for him this game, as well as going "under" 30 points and 15 points for Wagner, who checks in with season averages of 12.8 & 5.9. Washington has lost SIX of eight, allowing a 131.3 PPG in its six losses. As noted, Orlando's offensive woes of its first eight games is behind them and I'm looking for a "comfortable" win here. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. 2019 has not been a "vintage Brady season," as the six-0timer Super Bowl-winner owns a modest 14-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and a 93.1 QB rating. The Pats' running game offers little support, as Michel leads the team with 482 yards (just 3.3 YPA), with no other player rushing for as much as 150 yards (Pats rank 23rd in rushing at 92.9 YPG). The good news coming out of the Baltimore loss was the fact the Brady established a rapport with recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, as the WR hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards and a score in just his second game with the team. New England's defense enters Sunday No. 1 in both points allowed (10.9 PPG) and total D (249.3 YPG) but the loss to the Ravens sure gives pause to the possibility that the Pats' D just may not be as dominant as once thought. Philadelphia had absorbed lopsided road losses at Minnesota and Dallas before rebounding with an impressive 31-13 victory in Buffalo and a 22-14 win over Chicago. Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he has 11 TDs vs just two two INTs over his last seven games and has thrown a TD pass in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. That said, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight game (he's expected to miss) and fellow WR DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve. The Eagles may need to lean more on the RB tandem of Jordan Howard (525 yards on 4.4 YPA with 6 TDs) and rookie Miles Sanders (336 yards on 4.4 YPA) but Howard is listed as questionable with a stinger. Philadelphia's defense is getting healthier but its still ranks just 19th in allowing 23.7 YPG. Here's the bottom line. The Pats come into this contest as the MUCH healthier team plus are coming off a loss. FYI...The Pats are a remarkable 41-16 ATS (that's 72%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. If that's not enough, the Pats are returning to the field off a loss (and a bye), to face the team that beat them 41-33 in Super Bowl LII (February 2018). It's not too often that the New England has failed to come out on top in a high-profile match but one of the most noteworthy examples in recent memory was the above-mentioned Super Bowl loss. Tom Brady has acknowledged there was a lot of "mental scar tissue" from the 41-33 loss to Philadelphia. "They deserved it that year and now a couple years later we get a chance to play the organization again," Brady said. "We’ve had a lot changes. They’ve had a lot of changes. It’s totally different circumstances. Huge game for us. Big game for them. The better team is going to win." Isn't New England the better team? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | 7-41 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Lamar Jackson has long ago quieted any naysayers, as he continues to make NFL history. His Ravens handed New England its first loss of the 2019 season in Week 9 (convincing 37-20 victory) and then in a possible "let down" situation in Week 10, led Baltimore to its SIXTH straight win. The Ravens CRUSHED the Bengals 49-13 last Sunday, with Jackson completing 15-of-17 passes for 223 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 67 yards rushing (on just seven carries) with one TD. He posted a perfect QB rating of 158.3, joining Ben Roethlisberger as the only players in NFL history to have two perfect passer ratings in the same season (Big Ben did it in 2007). The 7-2 Ravens will welcome the 6-3 Houston Texans to Baltimore on Sunday. The Texans are coming off their bye week and enter the game winners of FOUR of their last five. Houston leads the AFC South (Indy is 5-4, Tenn 5-5 and Jax 4-5), as it begins a three-game stretch against the Ravens, Colts and Patriots. Jackson and Seattle's Russell Wilson are likely the two favorites for MVP in 2019 but Houston's Deshaun Watson is having a notable season, as well. He's completing 70.2 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just five INTs. Watson posted a perfect passer rating in a 53-32 home win over Atlanta on Oct 6 and joins Jackson as the only QBs with at least 15 passing TDs, five rushing TDs and a passer rating over 100 (107.1). WR DeAndre Hopkins leads the team with 68 catches for 665 yards and four TDs, while RB Carlos Hyde has taken over for an injured Lamar Smith to rush for 704 yards (4.7 YPA). Houston averages 142.8 YPG on the ground (4th), giving enough cover to Watson, as Houston ranks 8th in scoring at 26.4 PPG. Houston's defense is middle-of-the-road, allowing 21.2 PPG to rank 15th in a 32-team league. The Texans will not only have to figure out a way to slow down Jackson but the Ravens also feature former Heisman-winner Mark Ingram, who enters the game with 619 rushing yards (5.0 YPA) with a team-high eight rushing TDs. He teams with Jackson (702 yards / 6.6 YPA / 6 TDs) to give Baltimore the NFL's top rushing attack, averaging 197.2 YPG on 5.5 YPA. Baltimore averages an NFL-high 33.3 PPG and is second in total offense with an average of 421.7 YPG. The team's D does not resemble the Ray Lewis era units but allowing 21.0 PPG (13th) on 344.1 (15th) works just fine with Baltimore's dominant offense. Here's the rub. Jackson has been magical with his dual-threat passing/running ability but Watson may be just as good. The Texans own a great pass/run balance and are more than capable of keeping up with Baltimore's offense. I noted that the Baltimore D is not "vintage" and will add here that the Ravens have just only 14 sacks and 11 takeaways on the season. The matchups are good for Houston, which will counter Baltimore's No. 1 rushing game with a rush D allowing just 84.1 TYPG (3rd). The Texans haven’t lost a regular-season game by more than SEVEN points in two years and enter this contest 6-2 their last eight as an underdog and 7-3-1 their last 11 away from home. What's more, Baltimore's John Harbaugh has struggled as a favorite for quite some time, covering just 42 percent the last 46 times the Ravens have been favored. Adding some recent history, we find that Baltimore has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 tries as a favorite (That's a 79% "go-against"). I'm taking the points but calling for the OUTRIGHT upset! Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers -4 | Top | 29-3 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7. Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history. Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th). Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | USC -2 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Bailout Blowout of the Month is on USC at 11:00 ET. 3-0 USC visits Reno, Nv on Saturday night to take on 2-1 Nevada. The Trojans have won their first three games by an average of 19.3 PPG but are playing on the road for the first time, after going 2-8 away from home last season. The Wolf Pack have won 44 of their last 47 home games but after three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29, Nevada entered this season with a new head coach (more in a bit) and having lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Speaking of head coaches, Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has three teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona and Colorado). The good news is that seniors Jonah Mathews (1,009) and Nick Rakocevic (1,007) just became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark. The 6-11 Rakocevic is averaging 14.0 & 9.0 and guard Mathews chips in 11.7 PPG. The better news is that neither is the team's best player, as that's reserved for 6-9 freshman Onyeka Okongwu, who averages 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds plus has recorded 10 blocked shots. Also "keep an eye on 6-10 freshman Mobley, who is averaging 8.7 & 6.7. Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to the success stated above. He left for Arkansas this season and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana start had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He takes over a team that lost all FIVE starters but he does have a deep and pretty good perimter group. Holdover guards Drew (20.3-7.7-6.3) and Johnson (17.3) are off two excellent starts, joined on the perimeter by La Tech transfer Harris (12.0 & 5.5) and the returning Zouzoua (11.3). Yes, Nevada has won 44 of its last 47 at home but one of those losses came this year at home to Utah, a Pac 12 team not as good as USC. The Trojans wil surely remember getting outscored 39-26 in 2nd-half of last year's 73-61 home loss to Nevada and again, that was a totally different team than this year's Nevada edition. Revenge will be 'sweet' for USC, with a bonus being Enfield getting some extra satisfaction in besting former UCLA mentor Alfird. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Raptors v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened defense of the franchise's first-ever NBA title in October with Kawhi in LA playing for the Clippers plus starting guard Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) also in LA, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news was that head coach Nick Nurse (reigning Coach of the Year) still had a familiar cast. Pascal Siakam was the NBA's Most Improved Player and then averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry's been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without (he was a former Defensive Player of the Year). Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believed Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). Toronto has opened 8-3, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry (21.8-4.3-6.5) and Serge Ibaka (14.0 & 6.5 while averaging just 23 minutes) have each missed the last three games. Lowry ( fractured thumb) is out until at least late-November and Ibaka (sprained ankle) is listed as "out indefinitely." Toronto is playing the finale of a five-game road trip on Saturday and has won THREE of the first four stops. The Raptors bounced back from a 98-88 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday (Raptors got outscored 25-10 in the 4th quarter, one night after beating the Lakers 113-104 on the same court) with a 114-106 triumph at Portland on Wednesday. VanVleet went off for a season-high 30 points in Wednesday's win and is averaging 22.3 PPG over the last three contests (with Lowry sidelined). Siakam is averaging 27.2 & 9.2 on the season, as he's turned into an All-Star. The Dallas Mavericks were playoff 'regulars' from 2000-01 to 2015-16, making the postseason in 15 of those 16 years (won lone NBA title in 2011). However, the Mavs opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing years, with win totals of just 33, 24 and 33. However, after Luka Doncic won rookie-of-the-year honors last season (21.2-7.8-6.0), expectations were that Dallas would be a playoff team in 2019-20. Kristaps Porzingis was acquired from the Knicks last season in a trade and he was healthy and ready to go to open this season. He's averaging 18.5 & 8.2 and with Doncic putting up Westbrook-like numbers (28.7-10.3-9.3), the Mavs surely have shown signs of being a playoff team. Five more players have played in all 11 games this season, with two others playing in 10 of 11. That group consists of guys averaging anywhere from 6.4-to-11.6 PPG. However, the Mavs check in at a modest 6-5 and that includes TWO losses to the pathetic NY Knicks, home and away, in a seven-day span. Dallas has yet to convince me that "it is back," but the Raptors are in a tough spot, playing their FIFTH game in nine days. With no Lowry or Ibaka for Toronto, I expect Dallas to get a much-needed, confidence-building win here at home, against the defending champs. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State. Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st). Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2). Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016, completing an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season. Minnesota's 31-26 win at home last Saturday over previously unbeaten Penn St gave the Gophers to their first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in last Sunday's AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. 6-0 Minnesota leads 4-2 Wisconsin by TWO games in the Big Ten West and can take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by winning in Iowa City on Saturday against 6-3 Iowa (3-3 in Big Ten). Iowa's hopes of winning the West Division are on 'life support' after dropping a 24-22 decision last Saturday at Wisconsin, missing a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion try late in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes are THREE games behind the Golden Gophers with three contests remaining. P.J. Fleck 'surfed' the locker room after what non-believers would call an upset over Penn State last week, then asked his players to grab a hand. "Whatever you believe in, whoever you believe in, this is what sport does, bring so many people together," Fleck told the group after his 18-second ride. There is NO doubt he's a motivator! QB Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions, completing 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three TDs, improving to 13-2 as the starting QB. He's completing 67.9% on the season with 21 TDs and just four INTs. He has two quality targets in Johnson (50 catches / 14.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and Bateman (38 catches / 22.3 YPC / 7 TDs) plus RB Smith leads a running game averaging 195.2 YPG (38th) with 940 yards on 5.5 YPA with 7 TDs. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 PPG (15th), while allowing 20.7 PPG (27th). It's been a "close but no cigar" season for Iowa in this year's Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes have lost THREE games all against ranked teams. Iowa lost 10-3 at then-No. 18 Michigan, 17-12 at home to then-No. 10 Penn St and 24-22 just last Saturday at then-No. 13 Wisconsin. QB Nate Stanley (60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs) threw for 208 yards and two TDs in the loss to Wisconsin, overtaking Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. He leads an offense that averages just 24.1 YPG (98th) and one which can't match Minnesota's skill players at RB or receiver. However, Iowa's defense is allowing only 11.7 PPG (4th) on 289.3 YPG (11th). I like Fleck but this is not Kirk Ferentz's first 'rodeo.' He's in his 21st year at Iowa and after going 4-19 in 1999 and 2000, he's led the Hawkeyes to 16 bowls in 18 seasons (make that 17 of 19, here in 2019). I called Minnesota's upset against Penn St last Saturday but let's look closer at its entire "body of work." Here's Minnesota's first four games. It opened with a 28-21 home win over SD St, which averages just 20.8 PPG. Minnesota needed OT to win at Fresno St 38-35 (Bulldogs are a 4-5 team) plus beat Ga Southern only 35-32 as a 17-point favorite. Minnesota then won 38-31 at Purdue (Boilermakers are just 4-6 in 2019). Yes, Minnesota comes into this contest having outscored its last five conference opponents 199-67 but note that Penn St almost 'caught' Minnesota late in last Saturday's game, with the Minnesota D allowing 518 yards. How did Penn St's offense fair at Iowa vs the Hawkeyes? The Nittany Lions scored just 17 points (they average 37.1 PPG) and gained only 294 yards (they average 434.8 YPG). Iowa has won FOUR straight vs Minnesota and note that THREE of those wins came over bowl-bound Minnesota teams. Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in the nation with Baylor) but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has captured EIGHT straight Floyd of Rosedale trophies at Kinnick Stadium! Make that NINE in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Belmont v. Boston College -1.5 | Top | 100-85 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Boston College at 2:00 ET. Belmont and Boston College meet Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill in an on-campus Gotham Classic matchup. Belmont is coming off a 27-6 season which included an upset of 6th-seeded Maryland in the NCAAs, before losing 81-70 to Temple in the second round. However, the Bruins saw legendary head coach Rick Byrd retire (805 career wins), plus lost the 6-7 Windler (21.3 & 10.9) and guard McClain (16.8-3.6-3.9) from that team. Windler was a 1st round NBA draft choice and led Belmont with 35 & 11 in its upset of Maryland. McClain was a 1st-team All-OVC guard, who led Belmont with 29 points in the Temple loss. Boston has struggled to find its way into the top-half of the ACC and went just 14-17 (5-13 in the ACC) last season. Replacing Windler and McClain will be difficult but Belmont feels great about new head coach. Casey Alexander, who played for Byrd at Belmont, was his assistant for 16 years and then as Lipscomb's head coach, led them to a 29-8 record last year, including a runner-up finish in the NIT. The Bruins have a solid guard duo in Kunkel (20.5) and Murphy (10.0-8.5-5.0) plus up front, the 6-11 Muszynski has averaged 17.5 PPG and 6-7 grad transfer Scanlon has averaged 10.0-6.4-4.5. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). However, BC is off to a 3-0 starts and seeks its first 4-0 start in 12 years. BC will really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad ttansfer Derryck Thornton has averaged 17.3 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic averaged 14.5 & 7.2 last season and in BC's 3-0 start, has averaged 12.7 & 5.7. The 6-8 Mitchell is also back up front and he's averaged 5.7 PPG and 10.7 RPG. A pair of freshman have also looked good in the early going, as guard Heathchecks in at 12.7 & 4.3 plus the 6-7 Felder has added 6.3 & 5.3. It's hard NOT to be impressed by the Belmont program in recent years but this is just the team's third game, owning a home win over Samford and then taking a 79-72 loss at Illinois St, which lost FOUR starters off last season's 17-win team. Meanwhile, BC opened with a conference win over Wake Forest (77-70) and has also won 74-60 at South Florida, last year's NIT champs. Belmont was picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference in coach Casey Alexander's first season but this visit to Boston does NOT end well. Good luck...Larry
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch). Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF. Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards. A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-19 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1 | Top | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET. Bob Huggins became famous while coaching Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 16 straight postseason berths, including 14 straight NCAA bids. He was 'forced out' and after spending a year out of the coaching profession, accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State. It was a one-year 'pit stop' (23-12), as he returned to Morgantown (where he was born) to take the West Va job. As expected, he's led West Va to postseason berths in NINE of 12 seasons but is coming off just his second losing season with the Mountaineers, as they were just 15-21 in the 2018-19 season (4-14 in the Big 12 left them in last-place). West Virginia held off Akron 94-84 in its season opener on Nov 8. Pittsburgh welcomes the Mountaineers to the Petersen Events Center on Friday, with the Panthers off to a 2-1 start. Jeff Capel's first season at Pitt (2018-19) was a disaster, as the Panthers went 14-19 (3-15 in the ACC). Capel, a former standout at Duke, has previously led both VCU and Oklahoma to NCAA tourney bids. Early indications are that Jeff Capel is making some progress at Pitt. Here's how Huggins described last season. "You can't lose four starters (during the season) and be successful," he said. "We lost our PG, the best shot-blocker in the nation and two other starters who were pretty good , too, You can't do that!" The 6-10 Culver is back and he opened with 16 & 7 against Akron. The 6-7 Matthews looked good as well, chipping in 13 & 7 plus highly-touted 6-9 freshman Tshiebew added 5 & 5 in 10 minutes. The backcourt is deep with senior Harley (16-7-3) and freshman McBride (11-6-4) contributing the most in the team's season opener. Pittsburgh actually has three games under its belt, although the Panthers would like to forget getting upset 75-70 at home by Nicholls State, which was picked to finish 11th in the Southland Conference. However, the Panthers will want to build on their71-57 win at Robert Morris on Tuesday. The victory snapped a 24-game, true-road losing streak. Pittsburgh impressively overcame an 18-0 Colonials' run in the first half to record a true-road victory for the first time since Feb.8, 2017, at Boston College. The 6-10 Terrell Brown had eight points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his first start of the season (9.7 & 5.7). "Brown was really the difference in the game," Robert Morris coach Andrew Toole said. "His ability to protect the rim, and make it hard for our guys to finish around the basket had a huge impact on us offensively." Pitt is basically a perimeter-oriented team, with junior guard Murphy (17.0 & 3.7) leading all scorers, joined by sophomore guards McGowens (15.0-6.7-4.0) and Johnson (10.0-5.7-3.7) plus 6-6 freshman guard Champagnie (7.7 & 4.7). This is the 187th edition of the "Backyard Brawl," one which West Va won last season, 69-59. However, I noted above that Pittsburgh snapped its 24-game, true-road losing streak but that's 'chump change' compared to West Va's road woes. The Mountaineers will be seeking their first true road win in 633 days, since a win at Baylor back on Feb 20, 2018! What's more, they will have to do accomplish that against a hated-rival in Pittsburgh, which is 70-3 all-time in the month of November at the Petersen Events Center. At this price, Pitt is the ONLY way to go! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall +6.5 | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* No. 3 vs No. 12 Showdown is on Seton Hall at 8:30 ET. The Gavitt Tipoff Games wrap up a week-long schedule when No. 3 Michigan State travels to South Orange, NJ to take on No. 12 Seton Hall. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history but lost 69-62 to then-No. 2 Kentucky on Nov 5 in the Champions Classic played at MSG. Kentucky rebounded from that season-opening loss with an easy 104-47 home win over Binghamton this past Sunday. Seton Hall returned four starters from last year's 20-win NCAA team and opened as the No. 12 team in the AP's preseason poll. The Pirates have opened 2-0 and held their spot in the first regular season poll but the Hall's 74-57 Saturday home win over Stony Brook came at a high 'price.' Senior guard Myles Powell averaged 23.1 PPG last season and scored 27 in the team's season-opener but he suffered a severe ankle injury early in Saturday's contest (he will NOT play here). Michigan St's loss to Kentucky was a disappointment but paled in comparison to the death of Zachary Winston, the younger brother of Spartans senior PG Cassius Winston (Preseason P-O-Y). Zachary died of an apparent suicide on Saturday night and he was friends with many players on the Spartans squad. However, Winston (19.0 & 7.5 APG) played the very next day and was outstanding against Binghamton, finishing with 17 points, 11 assists and just one turnover. 6-8 junior forward Xavier Tillman (12.0 & 8.5) rebounded from a disappointing opener with 17 points and eight rebounds against Binghamton. He's one of five MSU frontcourt players averaging between 7.5 and 12.5 PPG (the 6-6 Henry leads at 12.5). MSU's weakness is on the perimeter, as outside of Winston, Izzo's team does not have a consistent outside shooter with Langford (15.0 PPG last season) not expected to be available until January at the earliest. Myles Powell was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and according to head coach Kevin Willard, his sprained his left ankle will cause him to miss multiple games, although the ankle has reportedly responded well to treatment. Powell will be missed but PG McKnight (12.0 & 5.0 APG) is hardly alone in the backcourt. Rhoden (11.5) and Reynolds (9.0) each played extra minutes after Powell went down, as Rhoden played 27 minutes (11 points) and Reynolds played 28 (9 points). Willard's team features a HUGE frontcourt, with the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (14.0 & 5.) being aided by a pair of two 7-footers, Gill (9.0 & 6.0) and Obiagu (7.5 & 2.5). I'm a HUGE fan of Izzo but Kevin Willard can coach. He's led Seton Hall to four straight 20-win seasons, earning a bid to the "Big Dance" in each one. I had Kentucky when it beat Mich St back on Nov 5 and wrote, " I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), the 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8) from LY, will NOT get Langford back as expected (until Jan) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain." Nothing much has changed. Seton Hall took down Kentucky 84-83 (OT) last Dec 8th at MSG and here on its home court, does the same to Mich St. Take the points but expect a SU win by the Pirates. Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore. Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st). Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions. I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -2 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET. The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season. Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019. Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th). Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th). The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Clippers v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 7:35 ET. The LA Clippers and Houston Rockets have each opened 7-3 and will square off in the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader. Kawhi Leonard led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA championship in his lone season with the team last spring and helped the Clippers to a 98-88 victory over his former team on Monday. Leonard struggled in going just 2-of-11 from the floor on Monday but finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and three steals. The Rockets played on Monday night as well, winning 122-166 at New Orleans, as James Harden scored 39 points (more on him in a bit). Leonard is the 'face' of the Clippers, averaging 26.9-8.5-5.9 but Paul George is expected back soon, giving LA a formidable "1-2 punch!" As good Leonard and George are, LA's outstanding bench will be a huge part of any success the Clippers will have this postseason. Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (22.3 & 5.6 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.8 & 7.1) and Green (9.1 & 6.3), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. Houston's Monday win was its FOURTH in a row and Harden's 39 points was the fourth straight game in which he has scored at least 35 points. Harden's average of 37.3 points through the first 10 games is the highest the league has seen through a 10-game start since the NBA-ABA merger, besting Michael Jordan's 36.9 points in 1988-89 and 1986-87.Westbrook (21.9-8.7-7.4) has meshed well with Harden and both will be counted on even more than usual with third guard Eric Gordon (16.6 PPG scorer in his career) undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday, sidelining him for about six weeks.One of the league's best-kept 'secrets' is center Clint Capela, who is averaging 13.5 & 11.7. Kawhi has sat out two games due to "load management" and both were in games against quality opponents. He missed LA's game at Utah Oct 30 and then missed the team's home game on against Giannis and the Bucks (still don't get that one?). The Clippers will play at New Orleans tomorrow and one would expect Kawhi to play here but you just never know. The Clipper may have held Toronto to just 10 points in the 4th on Monday and to 88 points for the game but the Clippers have allowed a WHOPPING 120.7 PPG in their only three road games this season and here, face the NBA's top-scoring team (Rockets average 120.3 PPG). 'LOVE' the Rockets at the opening number but if Kawhi sits, I'll lay the higher number, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -3 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on VCU at 6:00 ET. No. 23 LSU (1-0) visits Richmond, Va to take on VCU on Wednesday, which opened No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out in Monday's new poll, despite opening 2-0. LSU head coach Will Wade returns to the place where he won 51 games and made a pair of NCAA Tournaments in two seasons as the school's head coach. Wade was 51-20 at VCU from 2015-17 before taking the job in Baton Rouge,where he helped the 28-7 Tigers win their first SEC regular-season title since 2009 last season Lost in the Sweet 16). Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. Most likely remember that Wade was suspended by LSU last March due to allegations over illegal recruiting charges. He's back (for now), so let's talk basketball. Gone from last year's team are PG Waters (15.3 & 5.8 APG) plus frontcourt players the 6-9 Reid (13.6 & 7.2) and the 6-11 Bigby-Williams (7.9 & 6.7). Key players returning this this year are guards Javonte Smart (in the center of LY's recruiting scandal) and Skylar Mays. Smart had 21 points in Friday's 88-79 home win over Bowling Green, while Mays had 18 & 8. Sophomore forward Emmitt Williams had 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from the floor, after averaging just 7.0 PPG last season. Fellow sophomore forward Davis had 13 points and seven rebounds, coming off averaging 5.3 & 4.0 last year. The team's most promising freshman is the 6-9 Trendon Watford, who debuted with 10 points and seven rebounds. The Rams return all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team will be senior guards Jenkins (14.0 & 4.5) and Evans (12.5), plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (12.0 & 12.5). However, don't dismiss senior guard Mike’L Simms just yet, as while he's gone just 2-of-9 from the floor in the first two games, he as just ONE turnover in 49 total minutes. “VCU is a great place,” Will Wade told reporters. “As a coach you travel around a lot. That’s the longest I’ve been in one place. I was there four years as an assistant. I was there two years as the head coach. They’ve got tremendous fans. … It will be rowdy, but it should be fun.” My bet follows the saying, "You can't go home." VCU is well-balanced and well-coached and will be looking to get back into the top-25 by knocking off LSU in this one. This contest is VCU's lone real test before playing in Niceville, Fl (Emerald Coast Classic) Nov 29-30. Wade and his Tigers will fine "nothing fun" about this visit to the Siegal Center! Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Memphis v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Top-15 Showdown is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they've been replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the situation is not without drama, as the 'jewel' of that class, 7-1 freshman James Wiseman, is the center of an NCAA investigation which ruled him ineligible. Attorneys for Wiseman have since sued the NCAA and while the legal process continue Wiseman, has averaged 22.5 & 10.0 in the Tigers' 2-0 start. Memphis is ranked 13th in the latest AP poll and tonight visits the Moda Center (home of the Trail Blazers) to take on 2-0 Oregon, which is ranked 14th. Oregon opened with a 14-point win over Fresno St and then shot 70 percent from the floor (including 13 of 19 from three-point range), in a 106-75 rout of Boise St. Wiseman leads the consensus top recruiting class in the country, which also includes guard Ellis (15.0), the 6-9 Achiuwa (12.0 & 7.5) and the 6-7 Jeffries (9.5 & 4.0). There's more, in freshman guards Quinones (7.0-3.5-4,.0) and Baugh (4.0 & 6.0 APG). Sophomore guards Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris, the only prominent holdovers from last season’s team, have combined to average 16.5 points in the wins over South Carolina State and the UIC. Oregon's Bol Bol is gone plus a trioo0f 6-9 players, King, White and Wooten, who were major contributors in Oregon's Pac 12 tourney title and Sweet 16 runs, are also gone. However, PG Ptrichard (21.5-6.5-7.0) leads an excellent cast. He teams with fellow senior Mathis (19.5) plus JC transfer Duarte (11.5-6.0-3.5) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 freshman Patterson (8.5) joins 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (10.5-4.5-5.0) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro. Okoro missed Saturday’s game after posting 10 points and 10 rebounds in the opener. He was struck by a car and is listed day-to-day. The Phil Knight Invitational (named for the Nike co-founder) is technically a neutral-court game, but it's less than two hours from Eugene, home of the Ducks. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and owns a HUGE coaching edge over the still untested Hardaway. In 'friendly surroundings,' I 'love' the Ducks at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Thunder v. Pacers -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but the Pacers now look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference with SIX wins in their last seven games. As for OKC, it seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Thunder were in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, as the team's top-four scorers are in their first season with OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.0-5.8-3.4) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (18.6 & 5.0, while shooting 43.7% on threes), Paul (16.1-3.6-5.2) and Schroder (14.7-5.2-34.7).The Thunder pushed the Milwaukee Bucks to the brink on Sunday, before falling 121-119. Gallinari suffered through one of his worst shooting games (was just 4-of-17 from the floor) but made a key three-pointer down the stretch to keep his team close. Backup PG Dennis Schroder helped keep the Thunder in the game with a season-high 25 points on 9-of-12 shooting. OKC features a balanced attack but it could sure use a healthy Steven Adams. The center is averaging 8.3 & 10.1 but sat out the Milwaukee game and has missed THREE of OKC's last five with a knee issue (he's listed as questionable for this one). The Pacers welcome the Thunder to Bankers Life Fieldhouse with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and newly-acquired SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 20.8-5.2-8.9. However, the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga posted his fourth straight double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds in Sunday's 109-102 victory at Orlando plus matched a season high with seven assists (he's averaging 20.0-13.0-4,1 on the season). Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, as is reserve point guard T.J. McConnell. McDermott has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last three games and McConnell has scored 29 points and handed out 17 assist over his last two. Indiana is on a roll, going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS its last seven. The Pacers are a very tough matchup for OKC, which seemed to be developing a defensive identity, allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3) heading into a Thursday game at San Antonio. However, the Thunder have allowed 116.7 PPG over their last three games and now take on an Indiana team averaging 112.9 PPG over its last seven games. OKC has four wins this season, two over 2-9 Golden St and one each against 2-8 New Orleans and 3-7 Orlando. One last thing, the Thunder are 0-3 on the road, allowing 112.3 PPG. "Batten down the hatches" and lay the points with Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Missouri v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Game of the Month is on Xavier at 7:00 ET. Missouri and Xavier have both opened 2-0, as the two teams meet Tuesday night in Cincinnati (Cintas Center). The Tigers are coming off a 15-17 season and in the preseason, were picked to finish 13th in the 14-school SEC. Xavier is coming off a 19-16 season, although the Musketeers were ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll (despite a 2-0 start, Xavier was ranked 21st in the first regular season poll). This marks Cuonzo Martin's third season at Missouri. He led theTigers to an NCAA appearance in his first but the Tigers had no such success last season. Missouri has opened 2-0 while holding opponents to 49.0 PPG but the team's opening win was over Incarnate Word. SEVEN of last year's top-nine scorers are back, led by 6-10 junior Jeremiah Tilmon. He's averaging 14.5 & 6.0 but the only other Missouri player in double digits is sophomore guard Xavier Pinson (11.5-3.0-5..5), who comes off the bench. Mark Smith, a 6-5 junior guard who missed the final seven games of last season with a foot injury, failed to score in an opening win over Incarnate Word but rebounded with 19 points in Friday's victory over Northern Kentucky (note: No. Ky won 26 games last year and made the "Big Dance"). Evansville transfer Dru Smith starts alongside of Mark Smith in the backcourt and is averaging 8.5 PPG. Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season. He was retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position and has been a part of a Musketeers program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017. Steele was promoted to head coach when Mack took the Louisville job. Following Miller and Mack was NOT expected to be easy and it wasn't. However, Xavier rallied to win EIGHT of its final 11 regular season games and went to a postseason tourney (NIT) for the 13th time in 14 seasons. Xavier lost just ONE starter off last year's team, the 6-11 Hankins who averaged 10.6 & 5.3. The Musketeers feature a terrific forward duo, as 6-9 senior Jones is averaging 18.5 & 8.5 plus 6-7 junior Marshall is averaging 18.45-7.0-5.5. Some bad news is that returning guard Paul Scruggs (12.3 PPG last season), who had 12 points against Jacksonville before suffering a knee injury , did not play against Siena and appear s unlikely to play against Missouri (he was a preseason honorable mention all-Big East selection). However, 6-9 freshman Zach Freemantle and 6-8 Ohio U transfer Jason Carter, could play play big roles for Xavier this season. Freemantle is off to a promising start (9.0 & 5.5), while Carter (5.5 & 2.0), not so much. This will be Xavier's first 'test' of the season, or is it? Martin did lead Missouri to the NCAAs in his first season, despite a 5-6 road record. However, the Tigers had gone an "hard-to-believe" 0-30 on the road in the previous three seasons and last year reverted to form by going 2-8 on the road. Why should Missouri win here, where Xavier has gone 88-16 (.846) since joining the Big East back at the start of the 2013-14 season. What's more, 'ringing in Xavier's ear' will be Missouri's 71-56 home win over the Musketeers last season. REVENGE works in a "big way": in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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Larry Ness ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-19 | Oklahoma v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
12-13-19 | Lakers v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 113-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
12-12-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 84-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Fresno State v. California +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -1 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
12-09-19 | Clippers v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Seton Hall v. Iowa State | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -3 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 23-16 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Xavier -6 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin +1 | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 30 m | Show |
12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -8 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Nuggets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Providence v. Rhode Island -1 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Heat v. Celtics -5.5 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Magic v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 127-120 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Clemson v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 20 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Tulane v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Utah State v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-19 | VCU +3 v. Purdue | Top | 56-59 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Michigan v. Gonzaga -2.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Creighton v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 52-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Ole Miss +3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
11-27-19 | Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
11-27-19 | Heat v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
11-26-19 | Colorado -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
11-26-19 | Dayton -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -3 | Top | 78-51 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -6 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -117 | 105 h 20 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Blazers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
11-23-19 | California +3 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 40 m | Show |
11-23-19 | UCLA +13.5 v. USC | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 14 m | Show |
11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 42 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Central Florida v. Tulane +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Temple v. USC -10 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -4 | 92-96 | Push | 0 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
11-22-19 | Houston v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Texas -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
11-20-19 | San Diego State -5 v. San Diego | Top | 66-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -3.5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
11-19-19 | Montana State v. Grand Canyon -6 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | 7-41 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 6 m | Show | |
11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers -4 | Top | 29-3 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
11-16-19 | USC -2 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Raptors v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Belmont v. Boston College -1.5 | Top | 100-85 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
11-15-19 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1 | Top | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall +6.5 | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -2 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
11-13-19 | Clippers v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -3 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
11-12-19 | Memphis v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
11-12-19 | Thunder v. Pacers -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
11-12-19 | Missouri v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |