#19/20 ASA PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-112) - Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - We just can't see the over trend slowing down in these finals.  What is incredible is not just that each of the 4 games have totaled at least 7 goals, it is the fact that both clubs have scored well throughout this series with at least 3 goals scored for EACH team in all 4 of the games!  Leads have not been safe and Vegas goalie Carter Hart has allowed 4 goals in each of the 4 games!  As for the Canes goalie situation it still feels a bit unsettled with Bussi having started the last game but he is still so inexperienced compared to Andersen who was struggling.  That being said, all of this points to another high-scoring battle in this one in Game 5 in Carolina.  Over is our play here. 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Carolina Hurricanes (-110) over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Game 1 of this series was a wild 5-4 game and was a little unique in that the Golden Knights had a little too much time off prior to that one. So, if we analyze Games 2 and 3, we saw the Hurricanes rally from an early 2-goal deficit and then win in OT in Game 2. Then, in Game 3 the Canes were down 4-0 and yet rallied to force OT once again. The difference in Game 3 however was that Carolina lost it in double OT. The point is that the Hurricanes got down big early in each game and yet each time they rallied back. Even big multi-goal leads for Vegas have proven not to be safe. That said, even if Carolina gets down early in this game they are 100% confident in their bounceback abilities. The point here is that though we expect that the Canes should be the ones getting the early jump here and we are expecting a dominating road win, even an early deficit would not deter them in their quest to even this series up. Although Game 5 is in Carolina, the Hurricanes certainly want to avoid going home down 3-1 in this series. Look for the Hurricanes to build off that huge 3rd period (outscored Vegas 4-0) from Game 3 and they even this series up in Game 4. The extra time here between Games 3 and 4 (two full off days) certainly has allowed the Canes to make some adjustments and get their goalie situation squared away. Andersen of course is the veteran but Bussi played well when he replaced him. It is a case of gamesmanship but Carolina head coach Rod Brind'Amour has made his decision yet he will not announce it. This Canes team will be fired up off the tough Game 3 loss and we like the fact that Carolina is a fantastic 13-0 the last 13 times they have entered a game off a loss. The Hurricanes have not lost consecutive games since mid-January! Look for this situational spot to improve to 14-0 for the Hurricanes. Lay the generously low money line price with Carolina here for a Top Game.

NHL Rotation #12 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Hurricanes (-150) over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - The Golden Knights have been fantastic since Tortorella took over behind the bench.  However, this Hurricanes team has been even better with a 12-1 record in the playoffs.  Not only that, the Canes won 29 of 41 home games in the regular season while Vegas won only 19 of 41 road games in the regular season.  Carolina has the home ice edge here plus they catch the Knights in a spot where they could be rusty as they have been off for a full week.  Lay the moderate, yet very fair, money line price with Carolina here.   

#69/70 ASA PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - The Avalanche are on enemy ice and trying to keep the series alive as they are down 3-0 now after dropping Game 3 in Vegas in unreal fashion as they blew a 3-0 lead.  The way we see it this is the perfect set-up for an over.  Colorado showed what they could do, finally, in Game 3 of this series when they raced out to a 3-0 lead.  However, Vegas continues to score goals like crazy and certainly they will not be slowed down now after showing incredible resilience in the comeback win in Game 3.  That said, this one screams 4-3 at a minimum.  The Avalanche have no choice but to "throw everything but the kitchen sink" at the Golden Knights in this game as it is a must-win for Colorado.  That being said, we do expect the Avs to again score well here Tuesday.  However, Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals in its last dozen games and this should be another highly entertaining game with plenty of scoring just like we saw in Sunday's 5-3 final.  Over is our play here. 

#56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5 goals (+135) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 8 PM ET - Vegas is a fantastic hockey club that has responded well to the very late season coaching change to John Tortorella.  Give the Golden Knights credit too for coming up big with the Game 1 upset to start this series on Wednesday.  However, the puck certainly bounced the way of Vegas in that one and we are expecting a huge response here from the best team in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche.  No team had a better regular season (121 points) than the Avalanche and the Avs were also 8-1 in this post-season prior to that Game 1 loss to the Knights.  Colorado outshot Vegas 38 to 28 in the Game 1 loss and the couple of 3rd period goals that the Avalanche got after being down 3-0 certainly is going to be on the mind of Vegas goalie Carter Hart entering this one.  The Avs nearly completed the comeback.  Hart has been fantastic in goal overall but let's not forget he had allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 6 road playoff games prior to that 4-2 win Wednesday.  Also, note that the Avalanche had scored at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 7 games prior to the 4-2 loss in Game 1  Certainly rust was a bit of a factor as the Avs had a week off since topping the Wild in 5 games in the 2nd round.  That rust is gone now for Game 2 and the Avs have some momentum on their side too after the last two non-empty net goals that were scored Wednesday both belonged to the Avalanche.  Look for them to absolutely blitz Vegas from the drop of the puck here in Game 2 as let's not forget that the Avs entered this series 31-9-6 in home games this season.  The most recent Avalanche win was in OT but this followed 5 straight playoff wins by a multi-goal margin and their average margin of victory in those was 3 goals.  Another big margin win is lined up here for the angry Avs in Game 2 Friday night!  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the high value play here.  

#39/40 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 6.5 Goals (-130) - Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Ducks are on home ice and trying to keep series alive as they are down 3-2 now after dropping Game 5 in Vegas.  The way we see it this is the perfect set-up for an under.  3 of the 5 games in this series have totaled 4 or less goals in regulation time.  Though the other two games did get to 7+ goals, one of those featured a goal with about a minute to go or it would have ended a 4-2 game.  In terms of offensive production it does not help the Ducks that Ryan Poehling (4 goals in playoffs) is out and for the Golden Knights Mark Stone is still 'day to day' and missed the most recent game.  Stone had 28 goals and 45 assists in his 60 regular season games.  Under is our play here.  

#30: ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -140 over Buffalo, 7 pm ET Tuesday - You might remember we had Montreal in Game 2 of this series and we are rolling with them again here in Game 4 after sitting out Game 3 of this series.  As we mentioned Friday, the Canadiens had lost the first game 4-2 but had outshot the Sabres 28 to 16. We were looking for a big bounce back from Montreal in Game 2 and we got it with a 5-1 win.  Not only that, Montreal kept it going with a 6-2 win in Game 3 for another win by a 4-goal margin.  The Habs have not only won B2B games but we believe they have broken the Sabres spirit.  They have been the more aggressive and faster skaters and they have the much hotter goalie too.  While Lyon has fallen apart for Buffalo recently, Montreal continues to get fantastic goalie work from Dobes.  Not only that but, to us, the Canadiens beating the Lightning was a much more impressive series win than the Sabres beating the Bruins.  This series is starting to show clear separation in favor of the Canadiens and though the Sabres will surely battle hard off B2B losses, they are truly up against a superior foe here.  Lay the price with the Habs in this one and grab the favorite on the money line Tuesday as Montreal does it again!   

Under 5.5 Goals (-135) Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, 6 pm ET Saturday - Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 5.5 with high confidence.  If neither team allows more than 2 goals in regulation time of this game than it can't end with anything more than 5 goals and we love what we have been seeing from both these clubs all season long.  Carolina is one of the NHL’s stingiest defenses and a solid penalty kill that has suffocated opponents all season.  In the post-season Carolina has gone 7-0 and allowed 2 or less goals in all 7 games.  Only 1 of the 7 games saw the teams combine for more than 5 goals.  Philadelphia lost Game 3 of this series 4-1 but this followed the Flyers having allowed (in regulation time) an average of only 2 goals in their first 8 post-season games.  Philly started the post-season hot but have since gone 6 straight games without a regulation win and scored a total of only 7 goals in regulation time of those 6 games!  Pound the Under; this one finishes 2-1 or 3-2 at the absolute ceiling.  

#13: ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens +115 at Buffalo, 7 pm ET Friday - The Canadiens lost the first game 4-2 but outshot the Sabres 28 to 16 and we look for a big bounce back from Montreal in Game 2. The Habs are on a fantastic run when off a loss. Montreal is a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times they have entered a game off a loss! In fact, they have not lost B2B games since mid-March. As for the Sabres, they had lost B2B home games prior to the Game 1 win on home ice. Also, they are 0-2 the last 2 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. A lot of support for backing the underdog here and we are confident the Canadiens bounce right back here and take that 8-0 situational trend to 9 in a row here! Grab the underdog on the money line Friday.

#5/6 ASA NHL play on UNDER 6 -120 Montreal at Buffalo, 7 pm ET Wednesday - Both teams are here thanks to riding red-hot goalies as defense and goaltending has been the theme for both teams so far in this post-season. Both clubs are off round one wins and head into round two with plenty of momentum. The Canadiens have given up only 13 goals in regulation time of their 7 games in this post-season. The Sabres have allowed only 4 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games and these have been the 4 games that Lyon has started in goal. We expect another big game from the Buffalo netminder here at home but note also that Montreal has allowed 2 or less goals in each of its last 3 road post-season games as they continue to play well away from home. This one is set up well to be a 2-1 battle as first games of the series also can see a bit of a more conservative style of play as teams want to establish the physicality and defense early in a series moreso than just hitting the ice flying around on the attack. Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 5.5 total goals in this one.

#28: ASA NHL play on Buffalo -157 vs Boston, 7:30 pm ET Tuesday - Buffalo has been rolling ever since Alex Lyon took over in goal as he replaced Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the 3rd period of game 2.  Lyon has allowed a total of only 2 goals in 134 minutes of ice time in this series!  Teams can ride a hot goalie for a long time in the post-season and that is looking like what the Sabres are going to do as momentum builds.  Buffalo is now up 3-1 in this series and they have a chance tonight to finish off this series with the Bruins and avoid going back to Boston for Game 6.  The Bruins have allowed an average of 3.8 goals in the 4 games in this series and the Sabres will surely score well here at home.  That said, we just don't see the Bruins having enough offense to keep up here especially with the current ultra strong play of Lyon between the pipes.  Lyon has been dominating in the crease and we expect the Bruins frustration to continue to build here as the Sabres pull away in the 2nd and/or 3rd period for the home win and advance to the 2nd round.  The only win that Boston has in this series was in Game 2 at Buffalo but prior to that road win the Bruins had lost 5 of their last 6 road games.  The Bruins road struggles resume here.  Lay it! 

NHL Rotation #7 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Hurricanes (-120) over Ottawa Senators, Saturday at 3 PM ET - The Senators are now down 3-0 in the series after B2B tight losses that likely have taken all the hope out of the Sens. Ottawa last a heart-breaker in Game 2 after rallying from a 2-0 deficit in the game and getting it to 2-2 only lose in double overtime. The Senators then lost a tight 2-1 battle in Game 3 on home ice and they just can't shake this Canes team. Ottawa has scored only 3 goals in 3 games and now the handwriting is on the wall. Look for the Hurricanes to finish them off here as Carolina continues to show why they finished as the top seed in the Eastern Conference this season. Lay the short money line price with Carolina here. 

NHL Rotation #74 ASA TOP PLAY ON Ottawa Senators (-120) over Carolina Hurricanes, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - The Senators have played well in this series and yet are down 2 games to none. After a competitive 2-0 loss in Game 1, Ottawa found themselves down 2-0 again at Carolina in Game 2. They could have packed it in right there but this team fought back and the last two goals scored in regulation time of this series were both Senators goals. The Sens did ultimately fall short in the 3-2 double-OT loss in Game 2 but they have proven they can compete with this Canes team and now the series shifts to Ottawa. The Senators have won 4 straight home games and 9 of their last 11 here on home ice. Not only that, the average margin of victory in those 9 home wins was 2.8 goals per victory! This hot home streak for Ottawa included a 6-3 win over this Hurricanes team a few weeks ago. This Sens team is a different team when on home ice and it is now or never for Ottawa. They certainly can not afford to go down 3-0 in this series. Carolina finished with the #1 record in the NHL but in their last 4 road games of the regular season against teams that ended up making the playoffs, the Hurricanes lost 3 of the 4 games. The Senators have competed well so far in this series but do not have a win to show for it yet. That changes tonight on home ice. Lay the short money line price with Ottawa here.

#62: ASA NHL play on Philadelphia Flyers -115 over Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 pm ET Wednesday - This is one of those series seen from time to time each season where the betting masses simply fail to adjust as they just can't believe it. Coming into this series there was discussion of the Penguins sweeping and this was a common theme. Not only have the Flyers won both games so far, they are off a shutout 3-0 win Monday in a game in which the Penguins were expected to bounce back on home ice. Now the series has shifted to Philly and, ironically, it might be the Flyers that end up being the ones getting the sweep in this series! This is a value price on the Flyers on home ice because, as noted above, the betting markets just refuse to adjust. There is no belief in this Flyers team even though they are skilled and look faster than the aging core of this Penguins team plus Philly is getting fantastic goaltending. It continues here and we take advantage of the very generous offering. Lay the generously low money line price with Philadelphia in this one.

#56: ASA NHL play on Vegas Knights -150 vs Utah Mammoth, 9:30 pm ET - This is not the Vegas team that was mired in a slump and had lost 42 of 74 games this season as of March 29th.  This is the Golden Knights team that is now 8-0-1 in the 9 games since then which is, in other words, since John Tortarella took over!  Vegas has responded extremely well to the coaching change and that showed again in Game 1 of this series when they had a huge 3rd period for the 4-2 win over Utah.  The Mammoth certainly are a solid team and command respect but the markets have not caught up with this Vegas team just yet and we continue to see value on them in spots like this.  On home ice and laying only -150 and already showing they could respond to adversity (with the big 3rd period Sunday) and we see another home win coming for them Tuesday!  Lay it with Vegas  

#42: ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -166 over Anaheim Ducks, 10 pm ET - The Oilers allowed a total of only 5 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games. They have a potent offensive team even when Draisaitl is not available and that is likely the case here in Game 1. The Ducks allowed an average of 4 goals in going just 2-6-2 in their final 10 games of the regular season. Anaheim is certainly a quality team but they did have 20 regulation losses on the road this season while Edmonton lost only 14 in regulation time in home games this season. Oilers have a big playoff experience edge too as it has been 7 years since Anaheim was in the post-season. The Ducks could take some time to find 'their game' in a difficult post-season series like this and the more experienced side with the home ice edge will set the tone here in Game 1. Edmonton is a moderately priced favorite here but this money line should prove well worth it. We like the Oilers in this one.

#34 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -105) over Los Angeles Kings, Sunday at 3 pm ET - The Avalanche are the top team in the NHL this season and they are hosting a Kings team that stumbled some to end the season.  Los Angeles lost 17 of their last 29 games and also lost more than half their games over the final month of the season.  The Avalanche won the Presidents Trophy as the top team in the NHL regular season and they are loaded with playoff experience plus 80% of their home wins this season were victories by at least a 2-goal margin.  That is why we have no hesitation here in laying the puck line with the Avs in this one.  Lay the 1.5 goals Sunday afternoon with Colorado and look for a blowout home win! 

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -148 over Ottawa Senators, 3 pm ET - Of course the Senators command respect and have had a strong season but this is still a value money line spot for the Hurricanes in Game 1 the way we see it.  Carolina took 2 of their 3 meetings in the regular season even though 2 of the 3 games were at Ottawa.  The Hurricanes are the top seed in the East and no team in the NHL had more than their 29 home wins this season.  The Senators lost 20 of 41 road games this season.  Also, no shootout in the playoffs but yes there is OT and if this one goes to overtime note that the Senators went 3-10 in OT and the Hurricanes went 9-3 in OT in the regular season.  We are not expecting OT of course or we would not be involved here but that is an added bonus should this one go past 3 periods.  We also like the post-season experience of this Canes team and we will lay this moderate, yet very fair, price in the first game of this series. 

#20: ASA NHL Top play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals -120 over Vancouver Canucks, 9 pm ET - This is a fantastic situation that developed in one of the six games on the final day of the NHL regular season.  Edmonton is right now #2 in the Pacific Division which would mean they face the Ducks in Round One plus the Oilers would have the crucial home ice edge in the series.  However, the Oilers only have a 1 point lead in the standings over Anaheim as well as Los Angeles.  That means that if Edmonton loses this game and the Ducks and Kings each win their games tonight, the Oilers would suddenly plunge to the final wild card spot meaning they would be the lowest seed in the Western Conference for the NHL post-season!  Not only would that mean no home ice edge, it would also mean that the Oilers would face the league-best Colorado Avalanche!  In other words, the magnitude of this game is huge for Edmonton tonight and, unlike Anaheim and  LA, the Oilers have the advantage of home ice in their game tonight.  Not only that, they are hosting a Canucks team that has had a very rough season.  The Oilers hammered the Canucks 6-0 in the most recent meeting and also they did win 3-1 in the only meeting here in Edmonton this season.  Lay the -1.5 on the goal line here with confidence.  The Canucks did win their home finale Tuesday and might not be too excited about one more road game before the season ends.  The Oilers also have the rest edge here since they have been off since Monday.  24 of Edmonton's last 31 wins have been by at least 2 goals.  The Canucks last 21 losses have featured 17 by a margin of 2+ goals.  Vancouver has won 3 straight games but all were after regulation time and this team has only 3 regulation wins in their 27 games since late January.  The Oilers stumbled some late in the season and Draisaitl is still likely out until the 1st round of post-season but this is still an Edmonton team loaded with talent and all their recent losses have been against playoff teams and they faced a tough schedule.  This situation tonight is much more favorable for them and they won their last 3 games against non-playoff teams by a combined score of 11-3 and they roll again here against a Canucks team that had the worst record, by far, in the NHL this season. Lay it with the home team for a top game!  

#67: ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -150 at Philadelphia, 7 pm ET Tuesday - The Canadiens are fighting hard to finish #2 in the Atlantic Division. Currently they are tied on points with the Lightning but the Bolts have the tiebreaker. This means that if the season had ended yesterday Tampa Bay would have the home ice edge over Montreal in their first round series. The point is that this is an important game for Montreal and it means nothing to the Flyers. Philadelphia finally is back in the post-season. They worked hard to battle back from a 2-0 deficit versus Carolina last night and then won in the shootout to clinch a playoff spot! The Flyers are also locked into their playoff seeding and will face Pittsburgh in the first round with the Penguins already having secured the home ice for the series. That being said, the Flyers are likely to rest guys here and also this Philly team will be flat overall as you know they enjoyed every moment last night of finally getting back to the post-season. The Habs have won 11 of 13 games and this price is likely to rise even more today but is currently in a moderate -150 range as of 3 AM ET. Get in on this one as early as you can and grab the road team here!

#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-110) - Minnesota Wild at St Louis Blues, Monday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for goals!  The Wild are already locked into their playoff seed and will be facing the Stars in the first round of the playoffs.  Minnesota is not able to overtake Dallas for home ice in the series either.  In other words, the only incentive here is simply to play well and execute well in advance of the post-season.  The Wild have lost B2B games so we fully expect an emphasis on the offensive end here.  They were just held to one goal at Nashville and this followed a stretch in which 6 of 8 Wild games reached a total of at least 7 goals.  Minnesota scored at least 3 goals in all 8 games and they scored an average of 4 goals in those 8 games!  The Wild allowed 3.5 goals in those 8 games.  With Wallstedt having gotten the start against Nashville as well as the fact he has not made starts in consecutive games in 3 months, we expect Gustavsson in goal here as the goalie rotation continues.  Even if Wallstedt starts we still like the over but it is very likely to be Gustavsson and then Wallstedt would start tomorrow's game.  Gustavsson has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of his last 8 starts and at least 4 goals in 4 of his last 5 starts!  Also, in each of his last 4 starts Gustavsson has allowed 4 or 5 goals in all 4 starts!  The Blues are eliminated from the post-season so they will simply be focused on finishing well.  They have recently been scoring much better and have scored 4+ goals in half of their last 8 games.  A couple of rare exceptions were against a Winnipeg team known for defense and goaltending as well as a Colorado team that was the top team in the NHL this season and has recently clinched the Presidents Trophy for the regular season.  Now St Louis faces a Wild team that will be happy to play an open-ice style here as their playoff seeding is set.  The Blues will again have an attack-minded approach just like they did in their 5-3 win over Chicago this weekend and we like the fact there is no pressure on either the Blues or the Wild in this game and that sets up well for plenty of scoring.  This game shows the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 9 goals per our computer math model.  Over for a strong top game here! 

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -100 at New York Islanders, 6 pm ET Sunday - The Islanders are a loss away from being eliminated from the playoff race and they are the more desperate side here. However, the Canadiens are fighting hard to finish #2 in the Atlantic Division. Currently they are tied on points with the Lightning but the Bolts have the tiebreaker. This means that if the season had ended Saturday Tampa Bay would have the home ice edge over Montreal in their first round series. The point is that this is an important game for Montreal as well and yet it is the Islanders side that is undoubtedly playing with more pressure on their shoulders. That being said, this is a very generous offer to back a solid Canadiens team and lay little to no juice! Montreal, since mid-December, is 15-4 when coming off a loss and they are coming off a defeat versus Columbus. The Habs had won 10 of 11 prior to that loss. The Islanders are coming off a 3-0 loss to Ottawa and have lost 5 straight games against playoff-level teams and they lost those games by an aggregate score of 23-10. Hiring Peter DeBoer (1-1 so far with a win over the downtrodden Leafs) will prove to be too little too late for the Isles and they lose today to end their post-season hopes. Grab the road team here!

NHL Rotation #3 ASA PLAY ON Ottawa Senators (-115) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The Islanders made the very late season coaching change to Peter DeBoer and they are off a win but it was against the dysfunctional Maple Leafs.  Now the Islanders face a red hot Senators team that has won 3 straight games and 4 of its last 5.  Ullmark has been playing great in goal for Ottawa as he has allowed a total only 7 goals in those 4 victories.  The Islanders, prior to the win over the Leafs, had lost 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10.  This is an ultra important game in the very tight race for a post-season berth and we love the line value here with the red hot hot road team riding a red hot goalie and we'll lay the small money line price. 

ASA NHL play on Buffalo -121 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 pm ET - Tonight’s a high-value spot for the Buffalo Sabres to pull off a statement home win over the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center. The Sabres are rolling with momentum even though they are on the second night of a back-to-back. Buffalo delivered a strong 3rd period for a come from behind win over the Rangers in New York City on Wednesday night—exactly the kind of victory that gives a big momentum boost for a team heading home for a big home game the next night. As for the visitors here, the Blue Jackets have been in full desperation mode and their playoff hopes have begun to slip away under the pressure. Columbus is off a win over the Red Wings but this followed a 6-game losing streak that has really put a dent in their playoff hopes. Conversely, fresh off B2B wins and having won 3 straight home games also, Buffalo has the momentum and also plenty of motivation. They hold a 2-point lead over the Lightning and Canadiens for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. The revenge angle backs the home side too—the Sabres have lost both games with the Jackets this season but the home defeat was much earlier this season and came in OT. Time for some home revenge payback here and we get line value because the money line is being kept lower than it would be normally for this match-up. That's because the Sabres are playing without rest and we don't see Buffalo faltering here. The Sabres make it 4 straight home wins while Columbus, feeling the playoff race pressure, loses for the 7th time in their last 8 games.

ASA NHL play on San Jose +105 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - Tonight’s a prime spot for the San Jose Sharks to pull off a statement home win over the Edmonton Oilers at SAP Center. The Oilers are rolling in on the second night of a back-to-back after a chaotic, high-event overtime loss in Salt Lake City on Tuesday night—exactly the kind of altitude grind that leaves legs heavy and recovery short. The Sharks are in full desperation mode: they’re chasing every point possible with a brutal road-heavy schedule still ahead. Fresh off winning five of their last six, San Jose has the momentum and the greater sense of urgency. The Sharks are a solid 17-13 as home underdogs this season, banking over +$1,000 on the combined moneyline in those games alone. Edmonton, meanwhile, is just 12-14 as a road favorite and has lost more than $500 on the moneyline in that role. History backs the home side too—the host has taken seven of the last ten meetings overall, and the home team has won all three games between these clubs this season. The Oilers are 3-9 this season when playing without rest and tonight they’ll have a tough time keeping up to the Sharks with a day of rest.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (-1.5 goals +105) over Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas is rolling since they made the move to veteran head coach John Tortorella.  The Golden Knights have won 3 straight games and those victories were by a combined score of 15 to 6 and all 3 wins covered the puck line of -1.5 goals.  Vegas will do it again here as they take advantage of facing a very bad Canucks team that they also already beat 4-2 in Tortorella's debut.  Vancouver has not only lost 8 of its last 9 games, each of its last 10 losses have been by a multi-goal margin.  There certainly are no signs of that changing here and this should be another ugly loss for a Canucks team that simply can not wait for this rough season to come to an end.  Road team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Vegas is the value play here.  

#18 ASA NHL PLAY ON Winnipeg Jets -162 over Seattle Kraken, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Jets and Kraken are both still alive in the playoff race but it has been Winnipeg that has shown signs of making a move while Seattle has slumped.  The Kraken have lost 4 straight games and the last 3 losses were by a combined score of 13 to 4.  The Jets, on the other hand, have been hot and won 5 of 7 games and their top goalie, Hellebuck, is heating up at the right time.  He is one of the best goalies in hockey and continues to dominate when it matters most.  This is a very important game in the playoff race for a wild card spot and we like the Jets here on home ice.   Winnipeg has allowed an average of 2 goals per game in their current 5-2 run over the last 7 games.  The Kraken won the first two meetings, which were much earlier this season, by a combined score of 8 to 3.  That makes this a double revenge spot for a Jets team that is playing much better than the Kraken in recent weeks.  Seattle has lost 8 of its last 9 games and allowed an average of 4 goals during this very rough run.  Big difference in the current level of play of these two teams and the Jets are on home ice too.  We have to lay a moderate price here but it should prove well worth it as Winnipeg gets their double revenge payback here over the Kraken.  Lay the money line for a top play on the Jets Monday.  

#1 ASA NHL PLAY ON Minnesota Wild Money Line (-115) over Detroit Red Wings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Wild are off a 4-1 win yesterday while the Red Wings are also in a B2B but off a 4-1 loss. This one is a case of two teams heading opposite directions right now as playoff pressure has been heating up for each team. Detroit has lost 15 of its last 23 games. Minnesota has won 17 of its last 28 games including key B2B wins as they enter this battle at Detroit. The Wild have also been road warriors with wins in 10 of their last 15 away from home. The Red Wings have lost 8 of last 10 games on home ice including 3 in a row! Look for this one to make it 4 in a row as Detroit's collapse continues here late in the season. Minnesota Wild Money Line is the play in this one!

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+110) over NY Islanders, 7:00 pm ET Saturday - The Islanders looked horrible last night in a 4-1 loss to the Flyers and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. The Islanders are playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Islanders as they have lost 3 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 4 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 7 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 7 victories! The Islanders have one high-scoring win in their last 7 games but they scored an average of only 2 goals in the other 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+110) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up Saturday.   

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+140) over Columbus, 7:00 pm ET Thursday - The Blue Jackets just got hammered by the Hurricanes and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. Columbus is playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Blue Jackets as they have lost 4 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 3 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 6 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 6 victories! The Blue Jackets have scored an average of only 1.8 goals in their last 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+140) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up again.

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -130 over Columbus, 7:30 pm ET - The Blue Jackets face an angry Hurricanes team here. Carolina is off a 3-1 loss versus Montreal Sunday and will respond here on the road. The Canes are 8-0 the last 8 times they have entered a game off a loss and Carolina has not lost B2B games since mid-January. Columbus is playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Blue Jackets as they have lost 3 straight and now they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Indeed Carolina has been fantastic off a loss plus they have revenge here for a 5-1 loss here in Columbus less than two weeks ago. This will be a payback game for the Canes.

#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, Monday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for an over.  Vegas has allowed 19 goals in regulation time of its last 5 losses.  The Knights have scored about 5 goals per game over their last 16 wins!  Vegas is a huge favorite here as the lowly Canucks are in town.  While the Golden Knights have been getting sub-par goaltending of late, the Canucks have had this problem for a very long time!  Vancouver has allowed 4.1 goals per game in going 6-26-5 in their last 37 games!  Yes, just 6 wins in their last 37 games and a lot of it has had to do with not being able to keep the puck out of their own net.  Vegas is a solid 1.5 goal favorite on the goal line here and our projections are putting this game in a 5-3 range.  The Golden Knights have allowed at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 games.  Vancouver has allowed 5 goals per game on average in their current 5-game losing streak.  The Canucks have been shutout twice in their last dozen games but scored an average of 3 goals in the other 10 games.  The way Vegas has been conceding goals we can expect Vancouver to get to 3 here but also these Canucks can't slow down a Golden Knights team off B2B2B losses and gunning hard for a playoff spot!  Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals the last 4 times they entered a home game on a losing streak of 2 or more games.  Against the lowly Canucks, the Golden Knights should not only get to the 4 goal mark, they are likely to top it!  This game shows the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 9 goals per our computer math model.  Over for a top game here! 

#38: ASA NHL play on Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 goals +125 vs. San Jose Sharks, 5 pm ET - The Sharks are slumping badly as the pressure of trying to make the post-season for the first time in nearly a decade seems to have weighed heavily on them. San Jose has lost 6 straight games and 9 of the last 11. The Sharks are off an OT loss at St Louis but the 5 losses before that were all by a multi-goal margin and we love the value of the puck line here. Columbus has revenge from a 5-2 loss at San Jose in early January. Also, the Blue Jackets enter this game off a loss after having won 20 of 27 games. The Jackets last 13 wins on home ice included 11 victories by a multi-goal margin. Columbus gets back on track after the road loss at Montreal. The last 3 times that the Blue Jackets entered a game off a loss they have gone a perfect 3-0. The way the Sharks are trending we look for that run to reach 4 in a row and look for the win to be a big margin also!

#23/24 ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, 9:30 pm ET Thursday - These clubs are right next to each other in the playoff race and that means look for "playoff style" hockey in this one. Edmonton is off a 5-2 win but they scored a total of only 2 goals in their 2 prior games. The Oilers also are dealing with a cluster of injuries at center including Leon Draisaitl and that is a big loss for this club. The Golden Knights have been struggling to score goals. Vegas has averaged scoring only 1 goal in their last 5 games! Also, in the last 10 losses for Vegas they have been held to 2 goals or less and in fact averaged scoring only 1 loss in those 10 defeats! These teams have a playoff history and there is no love lost between them and that means an intense game that is likely to not feature much in the way of open ice. Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 6.5 total goals in this one.

#74 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 7:30 pm ET - The Sabres are the top team in the Atlantic Division and they had won 33 of 41 games prior to a 6-5 OT loss at Anaheim this past weekend.  Buffalo will surely respond here and they have scored an average of 4 goals in going 12-2 in their last 14 games.  The Bruins, other than one high-scoring loss to Pittsburgh in their last 7 defeats, have scored an average of only 2 goals in the other 6 losses.  We see at least a 4-2 game here in favor of the red-hot Sabres coming off a loss.  Buffalo won the last meeting here 4 to 1 and they again will get the job done on home ice here Wednesday.  Without hesitation we are laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Buffalo at a nice plus money return in this one for a high value top play here.  

#47/48 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Hurricanes and Canadiens are two of the highest scoring teams in the league this season as both average 3.5 goals per game. Also, both teams are in the top ten for power play success rate this season. In terms of penalty kill, the Canes rank only in the middle of the pack and the Habs have been among the worst in the league on the penalty kill. The first meeting between these teams this season was a wild 7-5 game and we expect another thriller here! Carolina is off a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh Sunday which continued their high-scoring trend. The Hurricanes allowed only 1 goal in that game but this followed allowing 3.8 goals per game in the 9 games leading into that one! The Canadiens are off a confidence-boosting 7-3 win over the Islanders and have scored an average of 4 goals in their last 8 games on home ice in Montreal. The Canadiens have allowed 3.2 goals per game in their last 5 games. The Hurricanes last 7 road games have averaged 7.6 goals each and now they battle with another one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. The prior meeting that was a 7-5 Canadiens win was a 4-3 game just 5 minutes into the 2nd period! The Canes are out for revenge and their trend toward high-scoring road games continues in a big way here. Carolina has scored an average of 5 goals in their last 9 victories but the Canadiens will trade goals with them here at home in another gem between these teams. This game shows the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 9 goals per our computer math model. Over for a top game here!

#42 ASA NHL PLAY ON New York Rangers Puck Line (+1.5 goals -148) over Ottawa Senators, Monday at 7:37 PM ET - Considering the Rangers started rookie Dylan Garand between the pipes yesterday, Igor Shesterkin should be getting the call here in the 2nd game of this B2B for the Rangers. Shesterkin is having a solid season but is coming off a rare tougher start. We look for him to bounce right back here and New York has earned at least a point in the standings in 9 of their last 13 games. The Rangers are 6-4-3 last 13 games and only the 4 regulation losses were defeats by 2+ goals. Ottawa enters this game with all the pressure as they are still within reach of a playoff berth. The Senators also have a huge game with Detroit on deck as it is the Red Wings that the Sens are right below in the chase for a playoff spot. Ottawa has been playing quite well yet only has 3 multi-goal wins in their last 6 games and we like Shesterkin in bounce back mode here and the Rangers will hang tough throughout this one and just might pull off the big upset here. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the home dog Rangers is the play in this one.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -145 vs. Vegas Golden Knights, 7 pm ET Sunday - The Stars have some injuries but that is also what is leading to incredible line value here as it is keeping this home money line price very modest. Dallas is on home ice and coming off a tight loss at Minnesota yesterday. The Golden Knights also lost yesterday and now Vegas is playing a 3rd game in 4 days. This is a very tough spot for a VGK team on the road that has been in a horrible slump. The Golden Knights have now lost 15 of their last 22 games! As for Dallas, prior to yesterday's loss to the Wild they had won 15 of their last 17 games! When coming off a loss, like the Stars are here, they are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times in this situation! Dallas won the last two meetings with Vegas last season and also has won the first two meetings with the Golden Knights this season! They make it a clean season sweep here and overall make it 5 in a row over the VGK. Lay it! Dallas on the money line gets the call here.

#13/14: ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 (-142) Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, 7 pm ET - Toronto off a 4-3 home loss to Carolina yesterday in OT. The B2B spot here means Stolarz is likely in goal for the Maple Leafs and this will be just his 2nd start in 2 weeks. The rust could show here and the Senators have scored 5 goals in each of their two meetings with the Leafs this season. Toronto has scored 9 goals in the 2 meetings and though Auston Matthews is out this Toronto team still has scoring punch. Ottawa is on a 3-game home winning streak and averaged scoring 4 goals in those 3 games. The Senators have allowed 10 goals in their last 3 games and we see a high-scoring game developing here in this one. The Sens have a solid power play but struggle on the penalty kill and that could also help us with some special teams' scoring in this one. 12 of Toronto's last 15 road games have totaled at least 6 goals and we take advantage of the line value with this total at 5.5 goals and we have no hesitation in laying the juice to get this valuable number on the total.

#67 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over Chicago Blackhawks, Friday at 8:30 pm ET - The Avalanche are the top team in the Central Division while the Blackhawks are dead last.  Chicago has lost 9 of 12 home games since mid-January.  The Avalanche are in the perfect bounce back spot here as they have lost 3 straight games and the only time they lost 4 straight games this season was way back in the opening month of the season in October.  9 of the last 11 road wins that Colorado has were all victories by a multi-goal margin.  The Blackhawks have scored a total of only 1 goal in their two meetings with the Avalanche this season and we look for Colorado to explode in terms of goal-scoring here in this strong situation on a 3-game losing streak.  In other words, that should translate to a road rout in this one.  The last two times that the Avs entered a road game coming off a loss they have won the 2 games by a combined score of 10 to 1.  Without hesitation we are laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at a very reasonable price in this one for a high value play here.  

ASA NHL play on Buffalo Sabres -140 at San Jose Sharks, 10pm ET - The Sharks have not been to the playoffs in 7 years and it looks like the pressure of making the post-season is starting to get to them this season. San Jose was looking good in terms of playoff chances as recently as 2 weeks ago but then they started to squeeze the sticks a little too tight!  The Sharks have lost 5 of 7 games and seem to be cratering under the pressure.  Buffalo, on the other hand, is thriving.  This Sabres team is one of the top teams in the NHL right now and is on a 10-1 run including 5 straight wins on the road!  Our money is on Buffalo to take that road run to 6 in a row here!  Buffalo just hammered the Sharks 6-3 when these teams met in upstate New York a week ago and they do it again in this one.  San Jose has allowed 4.4 goals per game in L5 games.  Sabres have allowed only 1.8 goals per game in L4 games!  Lay the price with the road team for a strong top game Thursday. 

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -149 vs Pittsburgh Penguins, 7PM ET - The Penguins face an angry Hurricanes team here. Carolina is off a 5-1 loss at Columbus last night and will respond here at home with Frederik Andersen in goal. He has allowed an average of only 2.6 goals in his last 5 starts and he won 4 of those 5 games including his current 3-0 run in the last 3. The Penguins are off a big upset win at Colorado by a count of 7-2 and could fall flat here. The Canes are 6-0 the last 6 times they have entered a game off a loss and Carolina has not lost B2B games since mid-January. Penguins are off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 12 games prior to that. Also, Pittsburgh has not won more than 2 straight games since the end of January when they had a surprising 6-game run. The Pens are in the wrong place at the wrong time and that is why we lay the price here with Carolina.

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins, 7 pm ET - Boston is on the road again after last night's 4-3 loss at New Jersey and that means Swayman will likely be in goal here.  He has allowed 2 or less goals in 5 of his last 6 starts.  Also, the Bruins last 3 games before last night's defeat all totaled 6 or less goals.  The Canadiens are also in bounce back mode here as they are off a 4-3 loss which followed 3 straight games that all totaled 6 or less goals.  This is also an original six rivalry match-up and these clubs are right next to each other in the playoff race and that means look for "playoff style" hockey in this one.  Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 6.5 total goals in this one. 

#67/68 ASA PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-115) - San Jose at Ottawa, Sunday at 5 PM ET - San Jose has a goalie situation as Askarov is injured and that is why Brossoit was called up from the AHL to back up Nedeljkovic in yesterday's game. The Sharks got the 4-2 win at Montreal but now the B2B really puts them in a bind from a goaltending perspective. The Senators are off a surprising 2-0 shutout win yesterday which followed a 3-2 loss. Before these two lower-scoring results, Ottawa had scored an average of 4.4 goals in their 5 preceding games. This one sets up well for a back and forth match-up with plenty of scoring. San Jose has scored an average of 3.5 goals in their last 6 games. Senators are likely going with Reimer here in goal in the B2B and he is off B2B strong starts (though he faced few shots) and these two outings followed him allowing at least 4 goals in 4 of his first 6 starts this season. Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Sunday in Ottawa

#37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-105) - Ottawa vs Anaheim, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Anaheim is off a 6-4 loss at Toronto marred by the Gudas hit on Matthews.  The Ducks lost 6-4 in that one and have now allowed at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 9 games!  The Senators are off of a 3-2 loss but had scored an average of 4.4 goals in their 5 preceding games.  The Sens are happy to be back on home ice and the Ducks are ready to respond off a loss as well.  This one sets up well for a back and forth match-up with plenty of scoring.  Anaheim has scored at least 4 goals in 8 of their last 11 games.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Saturday in Ottawa

#57/58 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-135) - Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - The Blackhawks are in a B2B spot and this is creating a goalie issue for them tonight.   Soderblom got the start yesterday so that means he is unlikely to play tonight as goalies rarely ever go B2B these days plus he was not great last night anyway.  Spencer Knight did not even travel with the team for yesterday's game at Dallas as he is dealing with an illness right now.  Knight has allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of his last 9 appearances.  So if Soderblom or Knight are in between the pipes tonight neither is 100%.  As for option #3 it is Drew Commesso and he has only 4 games of NHL experience.  As for the Mammoth, they might have Vejmelka between the pipes here but he has allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of his last 5 games and also in 2 of his last 3 on the road.  As for their other option, Vitek Vanecek is off a rare shutout win but that was preceded by him allowing at least 3 goals in 9 of his last 11 starts.  Based on all of the above, you can see why we are confident that both clubs get to at least the 3-goal mark in this one.  Utah has been shutout just twice in the last 17 games and they scored an average of 4 goals in the other 15 games!  Chicago's last 4 home games have all reached at least the 6-goal mark and they are scoring better of late.  The Blackhawks have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 games and that includes a surprising shutout win at Utah a week ago.  The Mammoth are out for revenge here and should score well but we also expect the Blackhawks to again score 3+ goals in this one.  This game has the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 8 goals per our computer math model.  Over for a top game here! 

#31/32 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-140) - Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are in a B2B and off a 4-2 win at Calgary. They used their #1 goalie (Woll) last night and that means a struggling Stolarz gets the start here. Whether coming on in relief or getting the start (including getting pulled early from one) Stolarz has struggled badly of late. Overall it has been a tough season for him and in his last 6 outings he has logged ice time equivalent to less than 5 games and yet allowed 22 goals in this stretch. Rough times for him and the same holds true for the Oilers goalies. Whether Edmonton goes with Jarry or Ingram here is not a big factor. We state this fact because Jarry's last 4 appearances have been the equivalent of only 3 games worth of ice time and yet he has allowed 17 goals in those games! Also, Ingram's last 3 appearances have been the equivalent of only 2 games worth of ice time and he allowed 8 goals in this stretch. The Oilers last 5 games have all totaled at least 7 goals and 4 of the 5 totaled 8+ goals! The Oilers have scored 5 goals on average in their last 5 wins but also allowed 5 goals per game on average in their last 5 games overall. Toronto comes into this one off B2B road wins by a combined score of 7-4 and though each of these failed to reach the 7-goal mark this followed a stretch of 5 straight Leafs road games totaling at least 7 goals! Considering that as well as the fact the Maple Leafs have a back-up goalie going here, this one should turn into a goal-fest featuring end to end action. 5 straight meetings between these non-conference foes (including 6 of last 7) have totaled at least 7 goals! This included a 6-3 Oilers win earlier this season. Over is our play here.

NHL #35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-135) - NY Islanders at Philadelphia, Monday at 7:07 PM ET - Flyers are off the big 7-3 upset win at Colorado and that was the 11th time in 13 games that a Philly game featured at least 6 goals.  Those 11 games have averaged 8 goals and we love the value here with the total.  The Islanders are a divisional foe and their final meeting with the Flyers last season was a 4-3 game and each of the two meetings this season have also been 4-3 games.  New York is in a great spot for goals here as you know where their emphasis will be tonight.  The Islanders are off B2B losses in which they scored a total of only 1 goal and they just lost 5-0 at home to the Sabres.  That was the first time this season that the Islanders were shutout and now they face a familiar foe and a chance to get back on track in terms of their offensive production.  New York will respond and score well here but this Islanders team has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of last 7 games.  In those 6 games the Islanders allowed an average of 4 goals.  The Flyers, other than a 2-1 win at Vegas where they were very fortunate they did not allow a few more goals, have allowed at least 3 goals in each of their other 7 games since January 10th and Philadelphia allowed an average of 5 goals in those 7 games!  Nice set up for yet another high-scoring game between these division rivals.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Philadelphia

NHL #13/14 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-130) - Winnipeg at Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - The Jets have been an over machine for a lengthy stretch now.  With Hellebuyck not in his typical form in goal for Winnipeg, they are now in the midst of a stretch in which 9 straight games have reached at least the 6-goal mark!  The Jets have scored an average of 4 goals in this 9-game stretch and they should stay hot here in the offensive zone against Chicago.  That seems likely as the Blackhawks have allowed an average of 4 goals in their last 11 home games!  The Hawks have struggled to score goals recently but facing a Jets team that has allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 9 games should certainly help things open up again for Chicago here on home ice!  When the Blackhawks enter a game on a streak of 2 or more games in which they were held to 2 or less goals in regulation, they have scored an average of 3 goals in their next game.  The 3 times Chicago was on home ice and in this situation they have averaged scoring 4 goals in their next game!  We like the Blackhawks to come up strong here on home ice offensively but also to continue to have goalie struggles as the Jets stay hot in the offensive zone.  Considering all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 or 8 goals as the most highly probable outcomes in this one.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Chicago

NHL #37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Anaheim at Los Angeles, Friday at 10:30 PM ET -  Great situational spot here. The Kings are off B2B losses.  The last 3 occurrences in which LA is off B2B losses they have scored well (average of 4.3 goals in regulation) and all 3 of those games reached a total of at least 7 goals.  Both meetings between these rivals this season have totaled at least 7 goals and that makes it 3 straight overs dating back to last season as the Kings won the final match-up of last season 6-1.  The setup for goals here is a good one as the Ducks are off of a rare under.  Anaheim is off a 3-1 win and this followed 8 straight Ducks games reaching a total of at least 7 goals.  Prior to the 3-1 win, the Ducks had allowed an average of 5 goals in their preceding 11 games!  The Kings have scored an average of 5 goals in the last 3 meetings between these teams!  These teams have not been great on the power play but they do struggle on the penalty kill and there have already been 3 power play goals scored in the first two meetings between these teams this season.  With numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 or 8 goals as the most highly probable outcomes in this one.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Friday in Los Angeles  

NHL #71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-110) - NY Islanders at Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Both these clubs have been having some goaltending struggles no matter who has been in goal for each team in recent games. Even Hellebuyck has been struggling for the Jets and Sorokin only recently came back for the Islanders and he allowed 3 goals in the most recent game for New York. No matter who is in goal for either side we like the over plenty here because Comrie has had some recent struggles for Winnipeg too and likewise with Rittich for the Islanders. All of this has been a key factor in 8 of the last 10 Winnipeg games totaling at least 6 goals! This includes 6 straight Jets games reaching at least the 6-goal mark! 5 of the Islanders last 7 games have also totaled a minimum of 6 goals. We understand the total being set at only 5.5 goals on this because of the long-term reputation of Hellebuyck and the Jets as well as the Islanders season-long trending toward under. The key here is that recent form is dictating a much different outcome here than what those long-term numbers have produced. The Jets have allowed at least 3 goals in 10 of 11 games! Winnipeg has also scored at least 3 goals in 13 of 16 on home ice! With numbers like this it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 goals as the most highly probable outcome in this one. Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in Winnipeg

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-125) - Columbus at San Jose, Tuesday at 10:07 PM ET - Alex Nedeljkovic was the first goalie off the ice at the morning skate for the Sharks today and that is an indication he will be starting in goal for this one tonight.  News also came out this morning that Jet Greaves, as was expected, is the likely starter for the Blue Jackets in this one tonight.  The Sharks Nedeljkovic was in goal in relief of a struggling Yaroslav Askarov in San Jose's 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay and he allowed 4 goals on just 16 shots!  This is nothing new as his last 3 appearances have seen Nedeljkovic allow 11 goals on 55 shots for an ugly .800 save percentage since mid-December.  The Jackets Greaves had been faring much better but has been streaky this season.  He started hot and then went cold and then got hot again.  This is quite normal for a guy not used to being an everyday NHL starter and he could be starting another tough run.  He has allowed at least 3 goals in 2 of his last 3 appearances and was in goal for the Blue Jackets 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend.  In terms of the trending of these two clubs in the offensive zone, Columbus has scored 3.7 goals per game in their last 6 games and compiled a solid 4-1-1 record during this stretch.  San Jose has scored 4.3 goals per game in going 3-1 in their last 4 games.  Including all scoring, including wins via OT goals, this Sharks team has tallied an average of 4 goals in their last 10 games.  We like them to score well here on Greaves and the Blue Jackets but again the weakness of San Jose is in goal and defensively.  In fact, the Sharks have allowed 29 goals in their last 6 games on home ice!  Yes even at home the Sharks just can't stop teams.  This one should be a back and forth exciting thriller as another key component is special teams.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack for power plays this season and yet both are near the bottom of the league on the penalty kill.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in San Jose

#71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Tampa Bay at Toronto, Monday at 7:37 PM ET - Battle of back-up goalies here and we like the over! The Lightning are currently without Andrei Vasilevskiy and that means Jonas Johannson is getting the start here and the Maple Leafs are without Joseph Woll so Dennis Hildeby is getting the start here. Toronto is off a 2-1 shootout loss but this followed 3 straight wins and the Leafs scored an average of 5.3 goals in those 3 games! Maple Leafs home games have totaled 7 or more goals in 9 of the last 12 games! Toronto won all 4 games with Tampa Bay last season and all 4 of those games totaled at least 7 goals. The Lightning have lost 3 in a row but 2 of those were at home and prior to the lone road loss in the bunch, Tampa Bay had been red hot on the road and scoring plenty of goals. The Bolts had won 7 of their last 8 road games and scored an average of 4.4 goals in those 8 games! We look for TB to resume that goal-scoring success on the road again here and we also see the Maple Leafs coming up big in the goal-scoring department as they look to bounce back off the loss. With the situational factors plus the goal-tending injuries impacting this match-up, Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Toronto

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - New York Rangers at Carolina, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We are well aware that the Rangers have struggled to score goals for much of this season but the key here is that Hurricanes goalie Pyotr Kochetkov (lower body) is out and Frederik Andersen has been struggling badly!  The veteran netminder is having a rough start to the season and has lost 4 straight starts with an unsightly .854 save percentage during this run.  In fact, on the season the veteran netminder has allowed at least 3 goals in all but 2 of his dozen games!  The point being that this is a great game for the Rangers offense to get back on track and, they have shockingly been better on the road in comparison with at home this season.  New York has averaged scoring 3 goals in their 14 road games this season!  As for Carolina, they love playing at home and consistently score well here.  In fact, 8 of the 9 Hurricanes home games have totaled at least 7 goals and we love this spot for another over!  The Canes have been waiting for this one after losing 4-1 over the weekend at Buffalo.  Back home and ready to push the pace, this game should feature plenty of scoring chances.  The Hurricanes have averaged scoring 4 goals at home this season plus have allowed at least 3 goals in 8 of 9 games on home ice this season.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability based on the simulations. Over is the play Wednesday in Carolina

ASAwins NHL play on Pittsburgh Penguins -115 vs. Minnesota Wild, 7PM ET - The Penguins fall into the same situation as our winner last night on the Flyers as they have 3+ days rest and are at home. This falls into a trend that hit 60% a year ago. The Pens have been a big surprise this season with a 10-5-4 start averaging 3.26 GF/G while allowing 2.47 GA/G. Pittsburgh’s goaltending has been outstanding with the 2nd best team save percentage in the league at .915 and nobody has more shutouts this season than the Pens. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 on their home ice this season. Minnesota had some struggles early on but have been playing better with 3 straight wins, but all three came at home. In fact, they have won 7 of their last nine overall, but again 6 of those W’s came on home ice. The Wild are 3-4-1 away from home this season and this will be a tough spot to get a win especially with injuries to Hartman, Tarasenko, and Rossi. This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but the situation is too good to pass on. Back the Penguins!

#43/44 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Ottawa at Anaheim, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Anaheim is in a back to back after the 4-3 win over Boston last night.  This will be Petr Mrazek in the crease most likely in this back to back spot.  Mrazek is off of a rare good start as he allowed 14 goals in his first 3 starts this season and we expect his struggles to quickly resume!  The Ducks have played in 20 games already and he has only 4 starts so he is not used often.  We expect the Senators to take advantage.  They are off a shutout loss at home against LA this past weekend and have been waiting all week to get back on the ice and get the bad taste out of their mouth after being blanked on home ice!  Ottawa has played 8 road games this season.  The last two were 3-2 overtime games but this followed the first 6 road games all totaling 7 or more goals and those 6 away games averaged 9 goals!  Off a 1-0 loss, Ottawa's emphasis will be on the offensive end in this one and we expect the Senators to pepper Mrazek with shots on goal.  At the same time, the Senators issue will be in their own end where they have allowed an average of 4 goals in regulation time of their 8 road games!  The Ducks have a showdown with Vegas on deck and these two teams are at the top of the Pacific Division so far this season.  The last time Anaheim had the Golden Knights on deck the game totaled 12 goals.  We expect plenty of scoring in this spot again given the situational aspects with Ducks in B2B and Senators off a 1-0 home shutout loss.  Anaheim and Ottawa both rank in the top half of the league for power play percentage. Both teams and, in particular, the Senators have struggled badly on the penalty kill. Anaheim is bad on the kill and the Sens are even worse! Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Thursday in Anaheim

ASAwins NHL play on: Philadelphia Flyers -125 vs. St. Louis Blues - 7PM ET - The Flyers (9-6-3) welcome the struggling Blues (6-9-5) to Wells Fargo Center on Thursday night, and everything points to Philly cashing as -130 home favorites in a bounce-back spot. Scheduling is a massive edge: Philadelphia enters with three full days of rest after a gritty 4-3 win over Columbus, while St. Louis wraps a grueling four-game road trip following an OT loss in Toronto—fatigue could hit hard against the Flyers' high-tempo forecheck. Philly's owned this matchup lately, ripping off three straight wins in the series, including a wild 6-5 shootout thriller on Nov. 14 in St. Louis where they outshot the Blues 31-17 despite the high score. The Flyers' defense has been a brick wall league-wide, allowing just 2.83 goals per game (10th in NHL), compared to Buffalo's leaky 3.84 GA/G (32nd-worst). Goaltending tilts Philly's way too: Samuel Ersson (3-1-2, 3.30 GAA) gets the nod in net, backed by a unit that's eigth-fewest in goals conceded (51 total), while Jordan Binnington (4-5-3, 3.34 GAA, .869 SV%) faces a Flyers attack that's clicking at home (5-2-2). Computer models love the Orange and Black here (projected 4-2 final), and with the Blues ranking 30th in goals allowed, expect Philly to control and convert. NHL teams with 3+ days rest against an opponent on shorter rest hit at a 60% rate in 2024-25. Grab the Flyers ML at -130—puck drop 7 p.m. ET.

UNDER 6.5 Goals - Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres - Tonight's matchup in Buffalo screams low-scoring affair, making UNDER 6.5 goals a sharp play. The Flames' offense is an absolute wasteland—dead last in the NHL at 2.10 goals per game and a dismal 7.1% shooting percentage, turning prime chances into airballs. Buffalo isn't lighting it up either, ranking 23rd with 2.89 GF/G and 24th in shot percentage at 10.4%, so don't expect a shootout from either side. Calgary's netminder Devin Cooley has been lights-out in relief, posting a stellar 1.75 GAA and .935 SV% across three appearances, though his 0-2-1 record underscores the Flames' scoring drought. Facing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who's started four games for the Sabres with a 3.02 GAA and .883 SV%, but Buffalo's back end has leaked goals—except those blowups came against elite offenses like Colorado (6 GA in a 6-3 loss) and Carolina. Against lesser attacks, they've been stingier. Add that seven of Calgary's last nine games have finished with 6 or fewer total goals, and this has all the makings of a 2-1 grinder.

ASAwins NHL play on: Utah Mammoth @ San Jose Sharks – Over 6.5 (-110) - The over thesis here pivots on advanced metrics revealing San Jose's goaltending woes beyond raw stats. While SJS boasts a respectable .912 team SV% (12th), their expected SV% (xSV%) ranks near the bottom at ~.885 —highlighting vulnerability to high-danger shots and shot quality (29th in GSAx). This inflates their 3.26 GA/GP (23rd), especially at home where they play at the NHL's 4th-fastest pace (32.1 shots allowed/GP). Utah counters with 3.16 GPG (15th) and a 553 shot volume (12th) vs. SJS's 23rd-ranked PK% (77.4%). Expected starters Vitek Vanecek (UTA, .875 SV% - has allowed 4 goals last two starts) and Yaroslav Askarov (SJS, .903 SV% but 4+ goals in 4/10 starts) add volatility, with SJS home games averaging 6.2GPG.

ASAwins NHL play on OVER 6.5 goal Edmonton at Buffalo, 7pm ET - Tonight’s Edmonton at Buffalo game is the clearest high-event spot on the slate, with the model projecting 7.2 total goals and finding an 8% edge on the Over 6.5 (currently -120 juice). Both teams rank top-8 in pace and expected goals over the last 10 games, Edmonton’s power play remains lethal on the road, and Buffalo’s goaltending has been leaky against high-danger chances. With the total shaded to the over at -20 already, the model still sees strong value pushing past 6.5 in what should be an up-tempo, mistake-filled affair in KeyBank Center. Edmonton on 5-1 run to the OVER, Buffalo OVER in 4 straight.

ASAwins NHL play on: OVER 6.5 Buffalo at Colorado - 9pm ET - The Buffalo at Colorado Over 6.5 (-110 range) is the model’s strongest total play on today’s card at +7.9% edge, and the reasoning is layered and overwhelming. Buffalo comes in on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Utah last night, flying into Denver on zero rest and facing the altitude penalty that historically adds ~0.55–0.70 expected goals against tired road teams (our database has this spot hitting the over at 69% since 2018). The Sabres already play the 6th-highest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, rank 27th in 5-on-5 xGA/60, and are starting Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen on the tail end of the B2B — he’s been solid this year but has posted sub-.900 Sv%. Colorado, meanwhile, is healthy up front again with MacKinnon, Makar, and Lehkonen all back, generating the league’s 3rd-most high-danger chances at home and feasting on transition looks against gassed opponents; they’ve gone Over this total in 11 of their last 14 home games when the opponent is on a B2B and the number is 6.5 or less. Special teams only add fuel: Buffalo’s penalty kill has dipped to 73.8% over the last ten games (29th), while Colorado’s power play at Ball Arena is clicking at 31.4% this season. This is the textbook definition of a schedule-spot blowout total

ASA play on: Blackhawks +135 vs. Devils, 9:30pm ET - The New Jersey Devils (11-4-1, 23 points, 1st in Metropolitan) roll into Chicago as -150 road favorites against the Blackhawks (8-5-3, 19 points, 3rd in the Central), but this screams value on the home dog at +130. After grinding through a brutal seven-game road trip (where they went 3-3-1 but outscored opponents 20-15 in those spots), the Hawks return to the United Center—where they're a crisp 3-2-1 this season, averaging 3.0 goals per game at home while allowing just 2.4. Familiar ice, rested legs, and a raucous crowd could flip the script on a Devils squad that's been middling away from Newark (4-4-0, outscored 28-30 on the road, with a -2 goal differential). Don't sleep on Chicago's offensive surge supporting the outright win: They're 17th in the NHL in even-strength offense (2.28 GF/60 over the last 15 games, up from 29th earlier), fueled by Connor Bedard's league-leading pace (25 points in 16 GP, including 9G-16A at even strength) and linemate Andre Burakovsky's chemistry (7G-7A, +14 rating). The Hawks' 58.3% actual goals ratio at 5v5 ranks third league-wide (outscoring foes 35-25), a massive overperformance on their underlying xG that screams positive regression at home—where Bedard's shot volume spikes (3.8 SOG/GP) and their power play converts at 22% (12th overall). Add in Tyler Bertuzzi's recent hat trick and Spencer Knight's .910 SV% anchoring the crease (with a shutout last outing), and Chicago's got the firepower to exploit New Jersey's road vulnerabilities: The Devils rank just 18th in road PK% (79%) and have allowed 3.88 GA/G away, including multi-goal outbursts in four of eight tilts. New Jersey's elite overall form masks the split—Jesper Bratt (OT winner vs. MTL) and Jack Hughes drive their attack, but road woes include a .871 SV% from Jacob Markstrom (3.95 GAA away) and fatigue from a compressed schedule. Chicago's home cooking turns this into a trap game; model implies ~45% win prob for the Hawks (vs. implied 43.5% at +130).

#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - Dallas at Ottawa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The starting goalies have been confirmed and barring unforeseen circumstances just prior to dropping the puck it should be Jake Oettinger and Linus Ullmark in this one. We like this match-up for goals. Oettinger has struggled recently with 10 goals allowed on 45 shots in his last two games. Ullmark, though considered the #1 goalie in Ottawa, has actually been getting outplayed by the back-up Leevi Merilainen. Ullmark did allow only 2 goals to the Flyers in his most recent start but he was very fortunate in that one as Philly had some bad puck luck in that one and should have had a lot more goals. Prior to that one, Ullmark allowed 16 goals over his last 4 starts for an average of 4 goals per start! Dallas is off a 2-1 home win versus Seattle but this was after 4 straight games, including both road games, totaled at least 7 goals. The Senators are off a 4-2 home win over Utah which was the 5th time in 7 games that an Ottawa home game reached at least the 6-goal mark! Both teams, and in particular the Stars, have been great on the power play this season. Both teams and in particular the Senators, have struggled badly on the penalty kill. Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 6 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Tuesday in Ottawa

Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

ASA NHL play on: New York Islanders ML (-140) vs. Minnesota Wild, 7pm ET - With confirmed starters Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota and David Rittich for the Islanders, this line is straight-up mispriced – the Islanders are a play at -140 (playable to -150). Minnesota just got worked 4-3 in Carolina Thursday night, with starting netminder Filip Gustavsson allowing 4 goals on 27 shots. That forces backup Jesper Wallstedt (1-0-2, 3.46 GAA, .863 SV% this season) into the second game of a B2B – where the Wild are 0-3 SU this year in that spot, getting outscored 8-13. Wallstedt has been shaky: negative GSAx in all three appearances, allowing 4+ high-danger goals per 60. Meanwhile, David Rittich is 3-0-0 at home with a sparkling 1.67 GAA and .938 SV% at UBS Arena this season – he's allowed exactly 2 goals in three of his four starts overall (the outlier was a blowout where he got no help). The Isles are: 4-1 L5 at home, 3.8 GF/GP in that stretch, and a perfect 3-0 when Rittich starts at home. Projected Score: Isles 4.1 – Wild 2.3. Implied Win Prob: 64% for NYI (-178 true line).

ASAwins NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS (-130) Minnesota @ Carolina, 7PM ET - For Thursday's Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes matchup, take the Under 6.5 (-130) with a +6% edge. Carolina’s league-leading xGA/60 (2.3) and elite 84% PK% smother Minnesota’s struggling road offense (2.6 GF/G), while Gustavsson’s .895 SV% faces heavy pressure against Andersen/Kochetkov’s .912+ tandem. Minnesota's offense relies on Kaprizov's shot volume (3.5 SOG/game), but their 43.3% xGF% craters on the road (opponents outshoot them 32-25 avg). Shooting efficiency: Wild's S% (8.2%) is unsustainable low (regresses +1-2%), while Carolina's 10.5% exploits transitions. The model projects 5.4 total goals, yielding a 68% under probability—well above the implied ~65% after vig. Key injuries to Slavin and Zuccarello further suppress scoring, Last year the two meetings between these two teams produced 3 and 4 total goals.

ASA play on: NY Islanders -155 vs. Boston Bruins, 7pm ET - The Bruins' three-game win streak hides a glaring issue: they're getting dominated on shots, outshot 103-66 across those contests—which is about to catch up with them. Meanwhile, the Islanders boast a solid 6-5-1 overall record and a strong 4-2-0 mark at home, where they're favored at -155 on the moneyline. New York's offense ranks 12th league-wide with 3.3 goals per game (40 total), and they've just notched back-to-back wins, including a gritty 3-2 comeback against Columbus where they outshot the Jackets 39-22 and controlled 68.1% of faceoffs. This rematch screams revenge for the Isles after Boston's 5-2 road win on Oct. 28 (outshot 35-22, including an empty-netter), fueled by two power-play tallies. Boston's road form is shaky at 1-4-0, and while they've won four of their last five, their momentum feels fragile against a motivated home side. Islanders: +1 shot attempts differential in recent games; 11.0% shooting efficiency (16th in NHL); averaging 3.5 goals/game over last 10. Bruins: 28th in defensive ranking; just 3-6 as +132 or longer underdogs; prone to late-game scoring but outshot in 70% of recent wins.

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6 Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, 10pm ET - Both teams come into tonight’s contest rested with their #1 goalies slated to start between the pipes. The Blackhawks will have Spencer Knight in goal, the Kraken have Joey Daccord on the card. Knight started the season red hot and has slipped slightly in recent outings but still has a .913 save percentage and 2.62 GAA on the season. Joey Daccord for the Kraken is 5-1-3 on the season with a 2.70GAA and .904 save percentage. These two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in GF per game with Chicago averaging 3.17, Seattle is scoring an average of 2.73 goals per game. Both teams struggle to get shot on goal ranking 30th and 32nd in total shots per game. Defensively, both are stout with the Kraken allowing the 10th fewest goals per game at 2.82, the Blackhawks allow just 2.83 GA/G. Both teams are also top 10 in save percentage and top 12 in xGA (expected goals against). Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 6 total goals in this one.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 GOALS Colorado at San Jose - 4pm ET - The Colorado Avalanche roll into San Jose on the second leg of a back-to-back (4-2 at Vegas yesterday) and also had a recent wild 8-4 demolition of New Jersey on Tuesday, where they lit the lamp eight times on 42 shots. That's a prime setup for a high-octane affair against the leaky Sharks, who rank dead last in the NHL by allowing 4.4 goals per game (48 total through 11 outings). San Jose's defense has been a revolving door all season, surrendering 4.36 goals per contest on average, and they've gone over 6.5 in eight of their 11 games—pushing totals to at least seven goals in each case. Their young guns like Macklin Celebrini (6G, 11A) and William Eklund (5G, 6A) can score in bunches, but the backend can't keep up, especially with Yaroslav Askarov struggling at a 4.69 GAA and .844 SV%. On the flip side, Colorado's offense is humming at 3.8 goals per game (league-best 45 total), led by Nathan MacKinnon's blistering 9G-9A pace and Cale Makar's 4G-13A wizardry from the blue line. The Avs have topped 6.5 goals in five of their 12 games already, including that 12-goal explosion against Jersey. But here's the wrinkle—and the value: Mackenzie Blackwood, a proven .913 SV% guy from last year, draws his first start of 2025-26 after offseason lower-body surgery and a 10-game absence. He looked sharp in limited backup reps last week, but rust is real; goalies often leak softies in debuts post-injury, especially on zero days' rest. Colorado's B2B hasn't slowed their attack yet (they're 7-1-4 overall), but fatigue could open the floodgates for San Jose's opportunistic forwards. Head-to-head? Colorado's owned San Jose with a 12-game win streak, but those romps have been goal fests: historically averaging 6.3+ combined goals in recent clashes. Multiple models project a 4-3 final (7 total), with the over juiced by the Avs' road warrior offense (33 even-strength goals) and Sharks' porous net (310 shots faced, 28th in NHL).

ASA NHL play Over 5.5 Goals (-130) in Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators - 7pm ET - Both teams are leaky at the back and aggressive up front, setting the stage for a goal-fest. The implied probability of 6+ combined goals sits around 57%, but the stats scream higher—expect at least 7 tallies in this one. Both squads are mired in defensive woes while packing heat offensively. Ottawa's been a rollercoaster (5-5-1), but their back end has been a sieve, allowing 4.0 goals against average (GAA)—the 3rd-most in the NHL. That's no fluke; they've surrendered 35 goals in 11 games, ranking 28th league-wide. Their goalies? A collective .841 save percentage this season, 31st—meaning pucks are finding twine consistently. Linus Ullmark's been shaky at 3.11 GAA and .870 SV% in eight starts, and backup Leevi Merilainen hasn’t been any better with an .830 SV%. The Flames (2-8-1) are hemorrhaging goals at a 3.55 GAA clip (8th-most vulnerable), with 39 goals against already in 11 games—27th in the league. Their netminders sit at a middling .883 save percentage (23rd), led by Dustin Wolf's 3.37 GAA and .886 SV% across nine starts. Ottawa ranks 7th in shots on goal league-wide, firing at will and converting at a clip that includes 30 goals for (9th overall). Their power play is lethal too—13 goals on 41 chances (31.71% efficiency, 2nd in NHL)—and with Calgary's league-worst 12.1 penalty minutes per game (2nd-most drawn against), expect extra chances for Stutzle and Co. to light the lamp. The Flames will get the puck on net sitting 11th in shots, but it hasn’t translated to goals (2.1 per game, though dead last at 32nd). Nazem Kadri's midrange sniping (tied for 9th in midrange goals last year) and Jonathan Huberdeau's high-danger volume should feast on Ottawa's sieve-like goaltending. Calgary's and Ottawa have both gone over 5.5 goals in 8 of 11 games this season.

#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (+110) - New Jersey at Colorado, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Jacob Markstrom was in the starters crease at morning practice for the Devils so he is expected to get the start tonight.  Markstrom has a 3.88 GAA and an .845 save percentage so he has struggled early this season.  As for the Avalanche, coach Jared Bednar has announced Scott Wedgewood as his starting goalie for tonight's game.  Though Wedgewood has decent numbers playing in place of normal starter Malcolm Blackwood, his current form is not good. He has allowed 11 goals in his last 3 starts and lost all 3 games and had an .825 save percentage in these 3 starts.  Wedgewood certainly will have his hands full trying to slow down this 8-1 Devils team tonight.  New Jersey has scored at least 3 goals in all 9 games this season!  The Devils have averaged scoring 4 goals per game during their current 8-game winning streak!  Markstrom has not played in 2 weeks so he is going to have his hands full trying to stop the Avalanche here!  Colorado has earned at least a point in the standings in 9 of their 10 games this season. The Avalanche have scored an average of 3.3 goals this season and have scored 4 goals in each of their last 3 games on home ice!  The Avs are seeking revenge for the 4-3 loss at New Jersey last week and we look for another very entertaining affair in this one after that one was already 2-2 after just one period of play and easily could have finished with much more than 7 goals!  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in Colorado.

ASA NHL play on: Dallas Stars (-140) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET - Tonight's matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I'm backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series. Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice. Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issue. In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA's forecheck. On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA's league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas' top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash. Even-strength play tilts Dallas' way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA's structured but aging blue line. Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

ASAwins play on: Under 6.5 Goals (-135) Red Wings at Sabres 7:30 pm ET - The Detroit Red Wings (5-1-0) visit the Buffalo Sabres (2-4-0) tonight at KeyBank Center, where the total is set at 6.5 goals (Under -138). This matchup screams low-scoring affair, with both teams' stingy defenses and combined 2-7-2 record to the Under this season (Detroit 1-3-2; Buffalo 1-4-1). We expect a grind-it-out battle in the Atlantic Division clash, projecting 5 goals in this one. Detroit ranks 9th in goals for (20 total, 3.3 GPG) but elite 5th in goals against (14 total, 2.3 GAPG), holding foes under 3 goals in 5 of 6 games. Buffalo, meanwhile, is anemic offensively (29th in goals for at 15 total, 2.5 GPG) but solid 13th in goals against (18 total, 3.0 GAPG), allowing 3 or fewer in 4 of 6 outings.Combined, opponents score just 5.3 GPG (1.2 below the total), and only 1 of Buffalo's 6 games has topped 6.5 goals. Gibson gives Detroit consistent netminding with an 2-1 record in three games this season with a 2.98 GAA and .873 save percentage. Buffalo's Alex Lyon (.924 SV%, 2.54 GAA, 6 straight starts turned aside 27/30 shots in a 4-2 loss to Montreal with the final goal coming on an empty netter. As long as this O/U is north of 6 goals we like UNDER the total.

#11/12 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-105) - San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here even if the goalie match-up changes but all signs are pointing to Yaroslav Askarov for the Sharks and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders and both these guys are struggling.  Before we get into the goalie match-up, let's talk about what we've seen from these clubs so far this season.  The Islanders are off a win but it was via a 5-4 final and that was the 4th time in just 5 games that the Islanders have allowed 4+ goals this season!  New York has been scoring well the last 2 games with 9 goals potted so that is a good sign for them at least.  Here they will take advantage of the only winless team remaining in the league so far this season.  San Jose is 0-3-2 so far this season and a big problem has been too many goals conceded.  The Sharks are off a 3-0 shutout loss and this followed allowing an average of 5 goals in their first 4 games of the season!  Prior to the shutout loss San Jose scored 13 goals in their first 4 games and we fully expect them to bounce back here after being shutout.  The Sharks will be determined to bounce back from an attacking standpoint but, again, this is a horrible team defensively.  Also, Askarov is still finding his way at the NHL level where the 23-year old has a 3.44 GAA.  He has allowed 7 and 6 goals, respectively, in his 2 starts this season!  As for Sorokin, his first 3 seasons in the NHL were great but since then he has had a 3.01 GAA and a modest 2.71 GAA and now this season he is off to a slow start.  He is 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA so far this season.  Look for plenty of goals here as both goalies are struggling and we like the Islanders to score well after back to back strong games in that regard and we look for the Sharks to respond in the offensive zone after the shutout.  Given numbers like the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in the NY Islanders game.

ASAwins play on: NY Rangers (-140) vs. Minnesota Wild - We like the New York Rangers to notch their first victory at Madison Square Garden tonight against a Minnesota Wild squad, who's playing Game 4 of a grueling five-game road trip and on a three-game skid. The Rangers defensive edge and netminding are the key factors in tonight’s showdown with the Wild. Igor Shesterkin has been lights-out early this season, posting a league-leading .962 save percentage and anchoring a Rangers defense that's surrendered just six goals across three home losses to powerhouses like Pittsburgh, Washington, and Edmonton (2.00 GAA in those tilts). Last year “Shesty” put up great numbers (2.86 GAA, .905 SV%) and we expect him to stonewall Minnesota's attack, which ranks 23rd in goals per game (2.67) and 22nd in shot percentage. In goal for the Wild will be Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson played well in the season opener with a shutout vs. St. Louis, but he's cratered since, leaking 6, 3, and 5 goals over his last three starts (.888 SV%). Minnesota's defense has allowed 3.67 GAA (27th) with the 23rd overall save percentage at .880. New York will get their first home win of the season tonight.

#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-125) - Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Stars are a perfect 3-0 this season and have scored at least 4 goals in all 3 wins!  They are off a 5-2 win versus Minnesota but did allow 4 goals in each of their first two wins.  We expect the Canucks to also challenge them here as Vancouver will be fired up off of back to back losses.  The Canucks did score 5 goals in a win over Calgary that began their season and we are confident that Vancouver brings a strong effort in the attacking zone here after the B2B losses.  Certainly the Canucks have plenty of confidence here as they scored 3 goals in the final minute here at Dallas in the most recent meeting and Vancouver ended up getting the OT winner as well in that crazy 6-5 final!  The Canucks also scored 3 goals in the 5-3 loss in the other meeting in Dallas last season and Sherwood was a star for Vancouver here against the Stars last season and he already has 3 goals in 3 games this season!  Boeser and Chytil also have scored multiple goals for the Canucks already this season.  Oettinger has not been as sharp as usual in goal for the Stars and Vancouver's Demko allowed at least 3 goals in both his starts versus Dallas last season.  3 straight (and 4 of last 5) meetings between these clubs in Dallas have totaled at least 7 goals and long-term these teams have a history of high-scoring battles overall when they meet.  That continues here as the set-up is perfect for an energized affair with plenty of end to end action.  Canucks hungry to respond off B2B losses and Stars will be aggressive at home and in attack mode as they look to extend their perfect start to the season.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Thursday in Dallas.

UNDER 6 Goals Calgary Flames at Utah Mammoth, 9:30pm ET - Two offensively challenged teams face off tonight when the Flames take on the Mammoth. In three games this season the Mammoth have managed just 5 total goals with an offense that ranks 31st in shot percentage in the NHL. Last season, Utah ranked 21st in Goals For at 2.93 per game and that lack of offense seems to have carried over to the 2025 season. Calgary hasn’t been much better scoring 8 total goals in 4 games or 2 per game. The Flames shot percentage is 27th in the league at 8.2%. Utah has been a stone wall defensively though allowing just 7 goals on the season which is the second lowest total goals allowed in the NHL. Utah has gotten solid goaltending from Karel Vejmelka (1-1 with 1.99 GA) and a .918 save percentage. Calgary will have Dustin Wolf between the pipes who has gotten off to a shaky start with a 3.77 GA average in 4 starts. Wolf though has faced three teams that finished last season top 13 in total goals scored and Calgary was 29th in total goals a year ago with 220. Two of the three meetings a year ago between these two teams finished with 6 or less goals. The bet here is UNDER. 

ASA play on Seattle Kraken +135 at Montreal Canadiens, 7pm ET - The Kraken have a great shot for a 3-0 start and a road win in Montreal tonight. Driven by a solid goaltending advantage and special teams dominance, and underlying 5v5 play. Seattle's Joey Daccord has been lights-out early, stopping 61 of 63 shots (.968 SV%) for a +3.2 GSAx (8th in NHL), while Montreal's Sam Montembeault has struggled with 42 saves on 47 shots (.894 SV%) and a -0.4 GSAx (34th). The Habs' power play is ice-cold at 3-for-15 (20%), and they've allowed 15 more SOG than attempted—a defensive red flag. Seattle's PK is stout (3-for-4), and their 5v5 xG differential (+0.072) is much better than Montreal's (-0.4). Last season, despite Montreal's 6 extra wins, their 5v5 xG diffs were nearly identical (-21.4 vs. Seattle's -25.74). Seattle has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Habs on their home ice and tonight we like them to make it 4/5.

ASA play on Florida Panthers -145 at Philadelphia Flyers, 7:00 pm ET - This will be the second meeting of the season between these two teams with Florida winning the first October 9th 2-1. The Panthers outshot the Flyers 34-20 in that game which could have resulted in a much larger differential than the 1-goal final margin. Florida seems to be in mid-season form already as they are 3-0 and have outshot opponents 98-67 in three games. Philly is 0-2 and has been outshot 73-43 in those two games. The Panthers are converting 41.7% of their power-play attempts and continue to put pressure on opposing goalies. Philadelphia allowed the 5th most total goals last season and was bottom 10 in penalty killing percentage. We like the volume of shots to be the difference in this one and will lay it with Florida on the moneyline.

ASA play on: OVER 6 Goals Buffalo @ Boston, 7pm ET - Buffalo is coming off a shutout loss in the opener against the Rangers while Boston is already 2-0 on the young season with wins over Chicago and Washington. The Bruins offense has been just fine scoring 3 and 4 goals in those two wins on a combined 56 total shots. Buffalo had 37 shot attempts against the Rangers but simply couldn’t find the net. This Sabres team was 10th in goals per game a year ago at 3.23 with the 6th best shot percentage in the league at 11.6. Buffalo also allowed the 3rd most goals per game at 3.50 last season. Boston wasn’t much better defensively a year ago allowing 3.30 GF per game with the 6th worst save percentage in the league. Boston was a lower scoring team in the league a year ago but has found something this season early on in their two wins. Buffalo will have either Alex Lyon or newly signed Colten Ellis between the pipes, the Bruins are going with Jeremy Swayman. It won’t matter who’s in goal for either team as there will be plenty of shots on goal to produce a 6+ total.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 Goals – Edmonton vs Florida – Game 6 Tuesday, 8pm ET - If it’s not broken, don’t fix it! The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the series with all five games finishing with 7 or more goals. These teams are on a 7-0 OVER streak for the season when they have faced off. There have been a high volume of shots on goal in this series with 78, 88, 64, 75 in the first four games, then just 40 in Game 5 which still produced 7 goals. Goaltending for Edmonton has been subpar as Skinner and Pickard have both looked shaky at times. Bobrovsky has allowed his fair share of goals in this series too with 16 goals against in the 5-game series. We expect the higher scoring trend to continue and will back the 100% trend of OVERS in this series. 

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers +133 at Florida Panthers, 8pm ET - The first two games of this series went to OT before the Panther crushed the Oilers in Game 3 by a 6-1 margin (we were happy with that result). Edmonton committed some head-scratching penalties in the last game and should clean up those errors in this ‘must-win’ game. The Oilers have outshot the Panthers in every game of this series and 4 of five meetings this season. Oilers Connon McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (playoffs top two point leaders with 26 and 25 points respectively) were held without a point in the last game so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Florida is 30-16 SU as a home favorite this season, but the Oilers are a respectable 13-7 as a road dog. Edmonton has been one of the NHL’s best road teams this postseason, posting a 6-3 record away from Rogers Place, including six wins in their last seven road games. We like the Oilers in this one.

ASA NHL play on: Florida Panthers (-140) vs Edmonton Oilers - Game 3, 8pm ET - Florida’s impressive 31-17 home ice record during the 2024-25 regular season at Amerant Bank Arena, has us on them tonight with this series tied 1-1. The Panthers went 15-7 in games where they were priced in a similar moneyline range (-128 to -140), as slight favorites. The Panthers have allowed just 2.33 goals per game in their last 12 playoff games, with goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky posting a 1.57 GAA and .935 save percentage over his last 10 starts, giving them a clear edge in net. Florida’s disciplined defense has also neutralized Edmonton’s potent power play, going 7-for-7 on the penalty kill in the first two games. Offensively, the Panthers’ depth shines, with 21 players recording points in the playoffs and their third line consistently making an impact. With sharp betting markets favoring Florida at -128 to -141 across top sportsbooks, the Panthers are well-positioned to capitalize on their home advantage and defensive prowess to take a 2-1 series lead tonight

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Goals Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers, Friday 8pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet on Game 1 of the Finals but will flip to the UNDER in Game 2. These two teams got off to a fast start in the opener with 3 goals in the first 12:30 of the game. Then two more goals followed early in the 2nd period, but the defenses/goaltending settled in and were much better for the rest of the 2nd and 3rd period. Both teams have more than capable offenses but let’s not forget these two teams were 1st and 4th in Goals allowed per game at 2.39 (Panthers) and 2.82 (Oilers). Netminder Bobrovsky for the Panthers allowed 4 goals in Game 1 but that was on 46 shots by the Oilers. In his previous three playoff games he gave up 6 total goals on 91 attempts. Oilers goalie Skinner has given up 6 goals in his last two games but prior had allowed just 2 in three games on 88 shot attempts. This O/U number has been adjusted up and the value now lies on the UNDER 6.5 GOALS!

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 GOALS Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers Game 1 Wednesday - Both teams are offensive juggernauts, with Edmonton leading the playoffs in goals per game (4.06) and high-danger shots (146), while Florida ranks third in goals per game (3.88) and leads in high-danger shot conversion (31.7% shooting percentage). Their regular-season meetings this year further support this bet, with games totaling 11 goals (Florida 6-5 win) and 7 goals (Florida 4-3 win). Additionally, the Over has hit in 5 of Florida’s last 6 road games against Edmonton and 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 games against Florida. Despite strong goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky (2.11 GAA, .912 SV%) and Stuart Skinner (1.73 GAA, .931 SV% since May 10), the offensive depth—led by Connor McDavid (26 playoff points) for Edmonton and Sam Bennett (10 playoff goals) for Florida—suggests goals will come in bunches. We expect a fast-paced, high-scoring Game 1.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -128 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 8pm ET - The Dallas Stars return to the American Airlines Center, where they boast a strong 7-2 record in the 2024-25 playoffs, to face the Edmonton Oilers in a must-win game. The Stars' offense showed promise in Game 4 with Roope Hintz’s return, generating quality chances despite Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner stopping 86 of 88 shots over the last three games. However, Skinner may regress, and Edmonton will be without top-line winger Zach Hyman (5 goals, 11 points in 15 playoff games), a significant loss given his offensive and physical impact. Expect Dallas to leverage their home dominance and capitalize on Edmonton’s weakened lineup for a crucial victory. Dallas outshot Edmonton 29-20 in Game 4 and ranks 4th in playoff home goals per game at 3.22. We expect the offense to break through against Skinner and extend this series.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 8pm ET - Carolina got a much-needed win in Game 4 but still trail this series 1-3. Florida had a few key injuries in Reinhart, Greer and Mikkola but all three skated in an optional practice on Wednesday and may be available tonight. After the 0-3 shutout loss we expect the Panthers to be back on their offensive game which scored 5, 5 and 6-goals in the previous three games. In three of the four games of this series, we have seen 48 or more total shots on goal. That high volume should continue tonight and gives us a solid advantage with an OVER wager. In five of the seven meetings between these two teams this season, one of the two teams has scored 5+ goals themselves. We are betting OVER in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals +160 vs. Dallas Stars, 8pm ET -Edmonton is 30-14-3 at home this season and 5-1 in the playoffs with three of those home wins coming by 2+ goals. The Oilers averaged 3.47 goals per game during the regular season and are averaging 3.93 GF/G in the postseason. Edmonton led the league in shots on goal during the regular season and are leading in the playoffs with 437. The Oilers have also gotten solid goaltending with a 2.93 goals-against average. In comparison the Stars have allowed 50 goals in the postseason (most in NHL) with a goals-against average of 3.13. Nearly half of the Oilers home wins this entire season has come by 2 or more goals. We will take the added risk/reward with a spread bet of mins -1.5 goals on Edmonton and bet the series trend continues as all three games have been decided by 3 or more goals.

ASA NHL play OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 - Hurricanes vs. Panthers Saturday, May 24 8pm ET - We like the Hurricanes-Panthers Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET Over 5.5 goals. Florida leads the playoffs with 45 goals (3.75 per game) and 82 high-danger shots. Carolina’s +16 goal differential and 46.6% offensive zone time signal scoring potential. Game 1 hit seven goals, and Andersen’s .877 high-danger save percentage in that game suggests vulnerabilities. In Game 2 the Panthers put up 5 goals on just 21 shots. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, one has managed to score 4+ goals in seven of those contests. If one of these teams gets to 4 this game should go Over easily. With Carolina down 2-0, expect an open, high-scoring game.

#56: ASA NHL top play on Carolina Hurricanes -130 over Florida Panthers, Thursday 8 pm ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on the Panthers over the Maple Leafs in that Game 7 win over the weekend, the experience level of the Panthers is strong as they have have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. Also, with the Game 7 win over the Maple Leafs it means that Florida has now won six straight playoff series and nine of ten, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons.  However, all that said, situational aspects are a key in every series and this is a great spot to go against Florida as the Hurricanes look poised to bounce back from the Game 1 home ice loss.  Carolina lost that game despite a strong edge in shots on goal as Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky came up big in Game 1.  While we certainly respect the Panthers with their big game experience - led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk and Bobrovsky to name a few - these Hurricanes have now outshot their opponents in 8 straight games by an average margin of 12 shots on goal per game!  They dominated the Devils and the Capitals in the first two rounds of this post-season and they aren't going to let a rare home loss completely derail them.  In fact they have been extremely strong when at home and having lost their prior home game.  That was their first home ice of this post-season and on the season overall, the Hurricanes are 9-1 (90%) when they are at home and they lost their most recent home game!  Overall, Carolina had won 36 of 45 (80%) on home ice including 5 in a row in the post-season prior to that Game 1 loss versus Florida.  The Panthers certainly have had another great season but they are only a .500 team on the road this season.  The Marchand / Gostisbehere incident adds a little extra fuel to the fire for the Hurricanes as well as what prompted all that was a questionable attempt by Marchand to do some damage on a late hit that was narrowly avoided by Gostisbehere. So far in this post-season, when the Panthers entered a game off B2B wins in regulation (non-OT wins) they have lost the next game all 3 times!  Indeed an 0-3 situation in play for Florida here again and we look for the Panthers to drop to 0-4 in this situation as the Hurricanes will come out flying on home ice and off a home loss.  Carolina will be relentless and they even this series up   Lay it! 

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars – 8pm ET - Dallas has been a strong UNDER bet with 37 Overs, 52 Under and 8 ties in their last 97 games. Of the 95 games involving the Stars this season, 62 have finished with 6 or less goals. Edmonton has an O/U record of 20-26-1 on the road this season and are 41-50-2 on the season. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Oilers netminder Skinner has been great in his last two starts with 0 goals allowed on 47 total shots against Vegas. The Stars goalie Oettinger has been a brick wall in the playoffs with only 7 goals allowed in his last 4 starts and a .942 Save Percentage. The Oilers have had their struggles on the road with zero power play goals in the postseason. Dallas is averaging 2.92 goals per game in the playoffs but it’s going to be tough to get to 3 goals against this Edmonton defense that is off two straight shutouts.

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -125 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs, Game 7 – 7:30pm ET - The Panthers are 3-1 all-time in Game 7s, including 2-0 on the road, with notable victories against the Boston Bruins (2023) and Edmonton Oilers (2024 Stanley Cup Final). Toronto, conversely, is 12-15 in Game 7s, with a six-game losing streak in these scenarios, last winning in 2004 against Ottawa. The experience of the Panthers who have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. The Panthers hold a 60/40 edge in expected goals and they’ve outscored Toronto 20-16 in the series. Florida has won five straight playoff series and eight of nine, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons. Toronto hasn’t reached the third round in 23 years. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0 in Game 7s with a 1.88 GAA and .933 save percentage, including 23 saves in last season’s Cup-clinching win. Toronto’s Joseph Woll, while impressive with a Game 6 shutout, has less high-stakes experience. We are on the Panthers with their Game 7 experience, led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, and Bobrovsky, outweighs Toronto’s home advantage. Florida’s ability to dominate 5v5 play and their recent playoff pedigree make them the safer pick to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. 

#8 ASA TOP PLAY ON Winnipeg Jets -125 over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Though he did have some struggles on the road in this post-season, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has had some big games at home in this post-season which has helped lead the Jets to a 5-1 home record in these playoffs.  Hellebuyck's last start here was a 4-0 shutout win for the Jets and this was reminiscent of how he was virtually a brick wall at home for much of this past regular season.  In the regular season he posted an exceptional 27-3-3 record at home, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts!  Now, coming off another shutout at home in his most recent start here in Winnipeg, we are banking on another strong performance from Hellebuyck to help lead the way to another big home win for the Jets as they look to extend this series to a Game 6 in Dallas.  The Jets Hellebuyck is 5-1 with a sizzling 1.99 GAA and a .902 save percentage at home in this post-season.  The Stars have not scored as well on the road in this post-season.  Other than 1 big offensive game at Colorado (but a 7-4 loss), Dallas has only scored an average of 1 goal per game in regulation time of their other 4 road games in this post-season!  Winnipeg has scored an average of 3.5 goals in regulation time of their 6 home ice games in the post-season.  We also like the fact that the Jets have NOT been outshot in any of the games in this series.  One saw equal shots at 26 apiece and the other 3 games have seen Winnipeg lead shots in goal by an aggregate of 88 to 69 shots!  Lastly, there is also a nice angle we like here and that is that the last 7 times the Jets were on home ice and coming off a loss, they have won the game all 7 times!  They rally the troops one more time here in this one and get another big win at home in Winnipeg!  Lay the money line for a top play on the Jets Thursday.

ASA NHL play on Toronto Maple Leafs +125 vs. Florida Panthers, 7pm ET - The home team has won all four games and we see no reason for that trend to change now. Leaf’s netminder Joseph Woll will be in goal again tonight after an 0-2 loss in Game 3, but Woll had a .946 save percentage with 35 saves on 37 attempts. We like Toronto to rebound off that shutout loss considering they had 13 goals in the first three games of this series. The Leaf’s are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games and were 31-15 at home this season. Florida was 23-23 on the road this season, 16-16 as a road chalk, Toronto has been a home moneyline dog just 10 times this season, winning seven of those contests. Back the home team here.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -140 vs. Winnipeg Jets, 4:30pm ET - Dallas has been one of the best home teams in the NHL this season with a 32-11-3 record. 21 of the Stars home wins in the regular season came by 2 or more goals. Jets goaltender Hellebuyck has had his struggles on the road in the playoffs allowing 5, 5, 6 AND 5-goals so if the Stars get one early, he could have a mental meltdown and allow a big number in Dallas today. Hellebuyck just allowed 5 goals to the Stars on this ice in the last game on 26 shots for an .808 save percentage. Netminder Jake Oettinger is 4-1 at home in the playoffs with a .913 save percentage. In the last game versus the Jets he allowed just 2 goals on 26 shots for a .923 SV%. We like the Stars to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series.

ASA NHL play on Vegas Knights +105 vs Edmonton Oilers, 9:30PM ET - Vegas put an end to the Oilers 6-game winning streak with a last second, or last half-second goal for a 4-3 win in Game 3 of this series. Trailing 1-2 in this series we like the Knights to even it up tonight in Game 4, especially with the Oilers missing goaltender Calvin Pickard again for this one. That means the Oilers are forced to start Stuart Skinner again who has given up 4, 5 and 6 goals in his last three starts. He is allowing 3.1 goals per game in his last ten starts with a .866 save percentage. Skinner is 1-3 against Las Vegas this season. Vegas is 37-22 with Adin Hill in net this season and clearly has an edge in that department for this game. Take the live dog in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -120 vs. Las Vegas Knights, 9pm ET - I’m going to keep this analysis shorter than normal today and essentially say…bet the red hot streak with Edmonton who has won 6 straight games. The Oilers have outshot Las Vegas 65-49 in the first two games of this series and have put a ton of pressure on the Knights goaltender Hill who has allowed 9 goals. Las Vegas is a solid road team, but Edmonton is 28-13-3 on their home ice, 3-0 in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this one and back the Oilers.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets -125 vs. Dallas Stars, 9:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Jets are in a must win situation here and we trust them at home with their 34-8-4 record, at Canada Life Centre. The Jets have won 3 of five meetings with Dallas this season with two of those wins coming in dominating fashion 4-1 at home. Winnipeg’s has been outstanding at home, with a 9-2 record and a +12 goal differential in their last 11 home games. Connor Hellebuyck, boasting a .921 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA, has been a wall at home, stopping 30 of 32 shots in Game 1 despite the 3-2 loss. The Jets’ offense, led by Kyle Connor (8 points in his last 4 games), averages 3.4 goals per game against Dallas, while their league-leading 67 goals through 15 games highlight their scoring depth. We like Winnipeg to even this series 1-1 tonight.

ASA NHL Under 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights (May 8, 2025) - Last Game (May 6, 2025): Edmonton won 4-2, but Edmonton’s two late third-period goals and an empty-netter inflated the score. Shots were low (Edmonton: 28, Vegas: 17), suggesting limited scoring chances. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Oilers have been a strong road Under team all season long with a 19-26 record, the Knights at home are Under in 24 of 45 at home this season. When Pickard (Oilers) and Hill (Knights) have started in goal this season they are a combined 43-49-1 Under on the season. Both teams ranked top 10 in Shots on Goal allowed this season and will solid goaltending tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to7 or more total goals.

ASA NHL Dallas Stars -105 vs. Winnipeg Jets – 9:30pm ET May 7, 2025 - The Stars are riding momentum from a Game 7 upset over Colorado, led by Mikko Rantanen’s third-period hat trick (five goals, seven assists in Round 1). Jake Oettinger (2.85 GAA, .911 save percentage) outshines Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (3.85 GAA, .830 save percentage), who struggled in Round 1. Dallas’ depth (21 goals in seven games) and 22% power play exploit Winnipeg’s defensive lapses (27 goals allowed). Despite Winnipeg’s home strength, the Stars’ form makes them the better bet.