ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Not sure San Diego should be this type of favorite tonight.  Our line on this was -3 so the value is with Chicago crossing over key numbers 3 & 4.  The Chargers are 2-6 on the year and their two wins have come against Detroit by 5 & Cleveland by 3, both at home.  Close games against bad teams.  The Bolts will be without QB Rivers top target tonight as WR Keenan Allen is out.  SD’s offense is solid but they are held back by their lack of a running game.  Rookie Melvin Gordon hasn’t been given many opportunities carrying the ball only 12 or 13 times per game usually.  They average only 86 YPG rushing and their offensive line is in shambles.  Rivers is pretty much what they have offensively.  Chicago’s pass defense ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing only 214 YPG so they match up pretty well.  The Chargers defense stinks.  They allow 6.3 YPP on the year which is only ahead of New Orleans.  A team with a defense that bad can’t be trusted laying points above those key numbers tonight.  Chicago is playing better going 2-2 their last 4 games with both losses coming by just a field goal.  We look for this game to be a field goal type game either way giving us value at +4.5 or +5.  Take Chicago.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44 - San Francisco @ New Orleans, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

San Francisco has not scored an offensive TD in their last 2 games to to jumpstart their offense they will start Blaine Gabbert at QB.  Well the Niners are last in the NFL averaging 13 PPG and they have been held to 7 points or less 5 times this season.  Don’t look for much to change with the QB switch.  Gabbert in his 27 career starts has led his offense to less than 20 points 20 times.  He hasn’t played in a real NFL game since October of last year.  That was the only game he played in last season.  Add the fact that SF is down to their 4th string RB and we don’t see many points coming for the host.  The Niner defense has been solid at home allowing just 15 PPG including holding Green Bay to 17.  They have played 4 home games and nobody has topped 20 on this defense here in San Fran.  After a hot start to the season offensively, the Falcons have really struggled as of late scoring 21, 10, and 20 points their last 3.  There is a good chance neither team reaches 20 in this one.  Take the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4.5 over Oakland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Many are now firmly on the Raider bandwagon and while we definitely think they are improved, this is a bad spot for them.  The Raiders have won 2 straight but let’s look at each situation.  Two weeks ago they beat a reeling San Diego team (2-6 record) with a banged up offensive line and the Chargers were off a long trip to Green Bay the week before.  Last week they played host to the NY Jets and the flyboys QB Fitzpatrick only played a few plays before leaving with a thumb injury.  That left Geno Smith at the helm in the 34-20 Jet loss.  While Oakland may have won that game anyway, they have caught some breaks the last few weeks.  The fact it they have been outgained in every game but 2 this year and they are -20 YPG on the season.  Now they travel to Pittsburgh where they are just 1-15 their last 16 trips to the eastern time zone.  The Steelers are off a loss 16-10 to the Bengals so this is a big game for them as they sit at 4-4.  QB Roethlisberger is back for the 2nd straight game so he should be comfortable this week.  The Steelers did lose RB Bell, however his replacement Williams has had a very solid season.  Pittsburgh was a Playoff/Super Bowl type team entering the season but sit at .500 due to the absence of Roethlisberger.  Oakland has come out of nowhere and not might even be a bit over valued.  We like Pittsburgh with this low number at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +8 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Not sure the Saints with their terrible defense should be favored by this number over anyone.  The Saints rank 31st in YPG allowed and dead last (32nd) in YPP allowed.  Now what makes the big points intriguing here is that the underdog has a very good defense.  Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL in total defense allowing just 316 YPG.  The Titans are allowing a full TD less per game than New Orleans (22 PPG to 29 PPG).  The Titans should get a jump start with a new coach as well.  We like looking at “interim” coaches after a mid-season coach firing as teams tend to rally.  Whisenhunt was fired after last week’s loss @ Houston and his replacement, Mularkey has head coaching experience with Buffalo.  This is a very similar situation to Miami a few weeks ago when Philbin was fired and the team played a great few games after that.  Tennessee QB Mariota is back and the Titans catch the Saints off a huge OT win over NY Giants (52-49).  We like Tennessee to give New Orleans a run on Sunday.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Denver, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this over rated Denver team and this is it.  The Broncs, despite being 6-0, are just 8th in the NFL in point differential at +37.  They’ve had a number of close games that could have gone either way.  In fact, they’ve won only 1 game this year by more than a TD.  We faded this team a few weeks ago @ Oakland (+4.5) but the Broncos got a little “lucky” again and won 16-10 without scoring an offensive TD.  Speaking of offensive TD’s, Denver has scored just 9 of them this year in 6 games.  Football outsiders has Denver ranked as THE LEAST efficient offense in the NFL.  They are currently last in the NFL averaging only 5 YPP and Peyton Manning currently has the lowest QBR of any starting quarterback.  That won’t get any better on Sunday as they face one of the better defenses in the NFL.  Green Bay actually leads the NFL allowing only 16.8 PPG and they are rated the 7th most efficient defense.  That tells us one thing.  Denver’s defense is going to have to play the game of their life to win this one.  Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is light years better than Denver’s offense.  The Bronco defense has been really good this year but let’s look at the QB’s they’ve faces this year – Flacco, Alex Smith, Stafford, Bridgewater, Carr, and McCown.  Hardly any Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady types in there.  These defenses are pretty close but we give Denver a slight edge.  Offensively Green Bay has a huge edge.  The Packers are 9-0 ATS off a bye under McCarthy and with this small number, we like Green Bay on Sunday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 50.5 points - San Diego @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

This one has high scoring written all over it.  We have two fast paced offenses that run a lot of plays. San Diego ranks 2nd in the NFL at offensive plays run per game at 71 and Baltimore is 7th at 67.  Neither run the ball a lot as just 33% of the Charger plays are on the ground while Baltimore comes in at just 36% running plays.  San Diego is 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game at 45 and Baltimore is 6th at 41.  There won’t be a lot of clock grinding running plays in this game.   Defensively neither are good.  Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive efficiency and San Diego is 30th.  Neither defense stacks up well defending the pass as San Diego ranks as the 23rd most efficient pass defense and Baltimore the 26th.  The weather looks fine (potential light rain but no winds) and we look for both teams to approach or eclipse 30 here. Take the OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - London England

KC is better than their 2-5 record in our opinion.  Their losses have come at the hands of Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati (all undefeated) Minnesota, and Chicago.  Their lone “bad” loss in that group was vs Chicago, a game the Chiefs led throughout but allowed the Bears to kick a buzzer beating FG.  We think the get a “boost” heading to London this week off a home win over Pittsburgh last Sunday.  Detroit is 1-6 and unlike KC, they look like a 1-6 team.  They are 31st in the NFL in point differential at -61.  Only SF is worse.  They are ranked 25th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency.  The Lions are 29th in scoring offense (19 PPG), dead last in rushing offense, and last in opposing QBR defense.  This team just isn’t good.  Now they are coming off a division home loss to Minnesota (19-28) and now win only 1 win we don’t look for them to put up much of an effort traveling to London. At this small number, we like KC on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Miami, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFL THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Miami is hot we get it.  We’ve been on them the last two weeks and cashed in nicely with both.  However, let’s not forget those two games were against Tennessee & Houston who have a combined 3-10 record.  Sure Miami’s defense has looked much better the last two weeks but they’ve faced two of the least efficient offenses in the NFL (Houston 25th & Tennessee 27th).  Two teams with questions at QB with the Titans starting a rookie (Mariota) and the Texans starting the equivalent of a back up (Hoyer).  Now they face the most efficient offense in the NFL with Tom Brady at the helm.  Brady and the Pats will be ready for this division battle and they get to show their worth as the “only game in town” on National TV.  Brady loves the spotlight and he will perform well.  The Pats are a remarkable 27-7-1 ATS at home when favored by less than 10 points.  Against Miami, 9 of New England’s last 10 wins here in Foxboro have come by double digits.  The Patriots are also 18-7 ATS their last 25 in this series.  They are simply a dominating home team winning 54 of their last 61 games here.  12 of their last 14 wins here have come by at least a TD.  We have one of the top NFL coaches of all time Bill Belichick takes on interim Dan Campbell and while the “rah-rah” approach worked for the Fins against poor competition, it won’t here.  Lay the number with New England on Thursday.

PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points - Baltimore @ Arizona, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

These two teams have combined to go OVER the total in 9 of their 12 games so far this season.  Since their season opener @ Denver, the Ravens have scored at least 20 points in every game.  Arizona has topped 30 points in 4 of their 6 games and put up 40 or more points 3 times.  The Cards are 2nd in the NFL in scoring at just under 34 PPG.  They are 4th in the NFL averaging 405 YPG.  They are coming off a game in which they put up just 13 points @ Pittsburgh despite rolling up almost 500 yards of offense.  Obviously with those numbers a team would normally put up a much higher point total.  The NFL average in that situation would be approx 30 points.  Turnovers (4) killed them in that game.  Expect a big offensive output tonight after that showing.  Baltimore, despite their 1-5 record, has been good on offense ranking 11th in the league at 24 PPG.  They are also 9th in the NFL averaging 370 YPG.  Don’t be surprised if the Baltimore defense, who’s already struggling (25th in total defense), is a bit spent here making their 4th trip to the west already this year (@ Denver, @ Oakland, & @ SF already).  Arizona’s defense has been pretty good but we expect Baltimore to throw it a lot (6th in passes attempted in the NFL) and score plenty.  This one goes OVER the number.      

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points - Philadelphia vs Carolina, Sunday at 8:25 PM ET - ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Here we have two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off on Sunday night.  Both are in the top 8 in PPG allowed and both are in the top 5 in defensive efficiency.  Carolina is a conservative type offense with no “difference making” receivers.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL (28th) in both YPG (334) and YPP (5.0).  The Eagles rank 20th in YPG offensively and while many think they “turned the corner” the last few weeks scoring 39 vs New Orleans and 27 vs NYG, we’re not buying it.  First of all the Saints have THE WORST defense in the NFL so let’s discount that number.  The Giants rank 28th in total defense so the same story with that game.  Now the Eagles face one of the best defenses in the NFL with a struggling QB (Bradford has been bad).  The Panthers scored 27 last week in Seattle but had just 14 with only 4:00 minutes remaining for a late rally.  With these two top notch defenses, this number is set too high.  We like the UNDER on Sunday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami -4 over Houston, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

We jumped on the Fins last week banking on them being “revitalized” with the coaching change and we were correct.  They dominated the Titans 38-10 outgaining Tennessee by 135 yards and by a full 2 YPP.  QB Tannehill looked better than he has all season completing 22 of 29 for 266 yards.  The defense looked light years better with 6 sacks vs Tennessee after having just 1 in their first 4 games.  The Fins were a 8-8 team last year and played very well in the pre-season when their starters were in the game.  Everything we’ve heard is the players love interim coach Campbell so we expect the good play and emotion to continue this week.  After losing 4 of their first 5 games, Houston picked up a win last week @ Jacksonville.  The final was a bit deceiving though as the Texans were actually outgained by the Jags but benefitted from a pick 6 and 3 Jax turnovers (0 for Houston).  Houston is just 6-16 SU their last 22 road games and this is their 3rd time away from home the last 4 weeks.  At this small number and re-energized team, we like Miami.

PLAY ON: NY GIANTS - We're not jumping on the Eagles bandwagon because of their win last week against the 2-4 Saints, who oh-by-the-way have the worst defense in the NFL.  This week the Eagles face a far superior defensive team so we're predicting we'll see an Eagles offense that more resembles the unit we saw the first few weeks of the season over the one we saw against New Orleans.  Prior to their game against the Saints the Eagles offense was averaging just 294 yards per game which was 30th in the NFL.  We can also make a point that the 3-2 Giants could be 5-0 right now. In fact, there's a legitimate argument to be made that the Giants have quietly been one of the best teams in football this season. They're 7th in points per game, 7th in offensive efficiency, 8th in yards per play, 2nd in run defense allowing just 80.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards allowed per rush and 8th turnover differential.  The Eagles 26th ranked pass defense will be exploited here by the Giants passing offense that is 8th in NFL in yards per game.  Running back DeMarco Murray has been a bust for the Eagles averaging just  2.7 yards per carry and we don't see Philly running the ball here against a Giants D that is allowing a league-best 3.5 yards per carry.  Teams that allow 90 or less rushing yards per game and an underdog have been very good ATS this season and the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings in this series.  We feel the better team is getting points here and will play on New York.

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +2 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME DOG OF THE MONTH

Both teams come into this game with 1-4 records but we give SF the edge at home.  The Niners had a few “ugly” losses @ Pitt (with Roelisberger healthy) and @ Arizona, two of the better teams in the league.  At home they’ve played well beating Minnesota handily and giving Green Bay a decent game holding the vaunted Packer offense to just 17 points and 362 total yards.  Last week they had a good NYG team beat on the road until Eli Manning threw a TD 20 seconds remaining in the game.  At home they’ve only allowed 20 points in 2 games this season.  We like Baltimore coming into the season but they are obviously vastly over rated.  They have yet to cover the spread and they have already lost to Oakland and Cleveland.  Last week’s demoralizing home loss could take the wind out of their sails here.  That was a must win game against a bad team and they couldn’t get it done at home.  Now the Ravens travel to the west coast for the 3rd time already this season!  Take the points and we’ll call for the Niners to win outright.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 points - Houston @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET -ASA's AFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR

These are two of the faster paced offensive teams in the NFL so expect a lot of plays to be run in this one.  Houston is actually the fastest paced team in the NFL while the Jags are 6th.  The Texans actually run an average of 77 plays per game which is a full 7 plays more than the team that ranks 2nd in that category (Atlanta).  They are both in the top 10 in passing play percentage and Houston leads the NFL with 48 pass attempts per game.  On top of that, these teams are not very good defensively with Houston ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency and Jacksonville 24th.  These are also two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL with the Jags allowing 29 PPG and Houston giving up 27 PPG.  The Texans will be going with Hoyer at QB here which gives them a much better chance offensively in our opinion.  Jags QB Bortles was questionable earlier in the week but he looks like a full go here.  JJ Watt also came down with an illness on Saturday and may not play in this one.  This number is too low and we like the OVER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4.5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:25 PM ET

We like the situation here with Pittsburgh and a strong rushing attack, off a loss, playing a weak rush defense and off a win.  The Steelers and QB Michael Vick benefit from a couple extra days of prep time for this one after losing last Thursday night to the Ravens when the couldn't  hold on to a 13-point lead in the 4th.  Remember, Vick joined this Steelers late so the extra reps were critical this week with the offense.  But for Pittsburgh to win they'll run the football (10th at 4.3 yards per carry) with Bell and Williams against a Charger rush defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  San Diego gives up 126 rush yards per game which is 28th in the NFL and 4.9 yards per carry which is 30th.  We're not impressed with San Diego's 2-2 record as they beat two bad teams in the Lions and Browns,  both at home by 5 and 3-points respectively.  The Chargers are banged up along the offensive line and have really struggled running the football this season.  They've had success throwing it but you can bet the Steelers will have a blitz heavy package in place tonight to take advantage of the Chargers weak O-line.  Pittsburgh has covered 6 of their last seven when coming off a loss.  They are also 4-0 their last four road games.  The Chargers are just 1-6 ATS their last seven at home.  1-6 ATS when coming off a win.  Pittsburgh is the play here.