ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:00 pm ET (Game 2) Sunday - I’m guessing most of you watched Game 1 so a recap really isn’t necessary. The bottom line is this. The Pacers led once with less than 1-second in the game. OKC led by as many as 15-points but Indiana made a few huge 3’s late to pull out the win. Down 0-1 at home we expect a blowout win by the Thunder in Game 2. Let’s not forget, the Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-8 SU at home this entire season, 34-15-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. We like OKC to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-7 SU at home this entire season, 34-14-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. The last team to be that dominant at home was the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19 when they won by an average of 12.2ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. In the regular season meeting on this court in February, the Thunder won 132-111 as an -8-point chalk. We call for another double-digit win in Game 1.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - Have the Suns finally flipped the switch and decided to try and play in the postseason? It sure looks like it with a 5-1 run in their last six games. The Suns have won 4 straight with three quality wins over the Bulls (playing well right now), the Cavaliers and Bucks. In that 5 game stretch the Suns have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +9.1. The Celtics are in the midst of a long 6 game West Coast road trip with 3 straight wins at Utah, Portland and Sacramento. There is a good chance the Celtics sit Tatum tonight with the #2 seed in the East all but locked up. Comparing each teams last 5 games we find very similar numbers with the Celtics 124.9 Offensive Net rating versus the Suns 121.5. The Defensive numbers are also close with the Celtics 112.1 DNR and the Suns at 112.4. The difference is the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule in that 5 game span. The motivated Suns fighting to get into the playoffs will find a way to keep this game close throughout and may even win outright. Grab the points.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to fade the Pistons and back the Spurs. Detroit is coming off a home win over the Pelicans and have a HUGE game looming against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. The Pistons will be without Tim Hardaway Jr tonight and could sit Cade Cunningham again, who has a sore calf and could get 5 full days of rest before the playoffs. Detroit is a fun up-and-coming team, but this is a big ask for them to cover double-digits at home in this situation. The Pistons are 16-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of 1.0ppg. They are 6-11 ATS as home favorites. San Antonio was heavily overpriced for most of the season with Wemby in the lineup which led to a 14-20 ATS road record. But they were competitive away from home with an average point differential of only -3.3ppg. You may be shocked to know that the Spurs have the best Offensive Net rating over the last 10 games in the NBA. Granted the Pistons have great overall numbers on the season but even looking at that 10-game span for both teams we see the Pistons Net Rating of 5.4 isn’t much better than the Spurs of 0.6. We like the Spurs to keep this game close throughout.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7pm ET - Memphis is 7-3 SU their last ten games, with the three losses coming at the Clippers, vs. OKC and at New York. In that 10-game stretch prior to the All-Star break the Grizzlies had the 9th best Net differential in the NBA at +4.4. Indiana is 14th in NR in their last ten games at 1.0. These two teams are very similar offensively with the Grizzlies ranking 5th in FG% shooting at 48.6%. The Pacers have similar numbers at 48.8% which ranks 4th. Memphis is 6th in 3PT%, the Pacers are 11th. On the season the Grizz rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.186-points per possession while the Pacers rank 9th at 1.157PPP. The big difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. Memphis ranks 7th in DEFF allowing 1.113PPP, the Pacers rank 22nd allowing 1.153PPP. Memphis allows the 3rd lowest FG% in the league overall and has the 5th best 3PT% D. Indiana ranks 20th in opponents FG%, 12th in 3PT% defense. No team in the NBA has had a better record since the start of last season than Memphis when playing non-conference games. The Grizzlies are 34-17 ATS or 66.7% against the East since the start of the 2023-24 season. Indiana has a 23-25-2 ATS record against the West in that same time frame. Take Memphis is this one.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves - OKC played poorly for the majority of the game against the Heat on Wednesday night but battled back for a home win over the Heat. Chet Holmgren didn't play rest reasons and Alex Caruso playing sparingly. One of the Thunders greatest attributes is their depth as they bring guys off the bench and don't skip a beat. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury and they played a very short rotation against the Bucks on Wednesday with three starters all out. The Thunder are 8-2 SU when playing without rest this season with an average plus/minus of +9.3ppg. Minnesota is 4-4 SU without rest +4.3ppg. As a home dog the Wolves have just 1 ATS win in three attempts. OKC is a regular road favorite and a moneymaking 12-8-2 ATS as an away favorite +11.1ppg. The Thunder have a winning record against the West, Minnesota has a losing record. OKC has a big advantage offensively with the 6th best Offensive Net rating compared to the Wolves 14th. The Thunder are 1st in Defensive Net rating the Wolves are 6th. We like the visitor in this one.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors +7 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This bet was scheduled back on December 11th when the Rockets beat the Warriors in an UGLY game that ended with a controversial call against GST which awarded the Rockets two game-winning FT’s. The Rockets were at home in that contest and had Fred VanVleet in the lineup and were favored by -3-points. The Warriors did not have Jimmy Butler on the roster who has fit in perfectly with Golden State. Both teams played last night so neither has rest advantage. These two teams have similar offensive and defensive Net ratings with the Rockets holding a slight advantage in both as far as season statistics go. It’s a very small sample size, but with Butler in the lineup the Warriors have the 6th best Net rating differential in the NBA at +11.0. Golden State is 20-14 ATS as a road dog dating back to the start of last season and they have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Rockets. With this line inflated we will grab the value with Golden State.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a game yesterday, a home win against the 76ers but we don’t feel fatigue will be an issue. The Bucks are 14-9 SU since the start of last season when playing without rest with a positive scoring differential. Very rarely are the Bucks a home dog. Milwaukee has been catching points at home just 8 times since the beginning of last season and they’ve won 6 of those with an average +/- of +6.5ppg. Golden State is coming off a huge second half against the Bulls in Jimmy Butlers debut but there is no way this .500 team should be favored by this number on the road. Golden State is 11-13 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of +0.6ppg. The Bucks are 7-1 SU at home in their last eight game and even without Giannis they have enough on this roster to beat this Warriors team outright.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 pm ET - The Bucks were dealing with trade distractions swirling around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others which clearly had an effect on their play. With Middleton gone they can move on and focus on building chemistry for a strong playoff run. The Hawks made some moves at the trade deadline and dealt their second-leading scorer, Hunter, to the Cavaliers. Atlanta was dealt a serious blow last month when borderline All-Star Jalen Johnson went down with a season ending injury. The Hawks have gone 1-9 SU in their last ten games getting beat by an average of -8.3ppg. Atlanta will have a tough time scoring here with a depleted lineup and an offense that ranks 27th in Offensive Net rating in their last ten games. Milwaukee shouldn’t have problems scoring here with their 6th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that is 27th in opponents FG% allowed. The Bucks rank 2nd in 3PT%, the Hawks are 26th in 3PT% defense. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season with the two teams splitting wins in Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the two most recent meetings in Atlanta by 11 and 9-points. Milwaukee is accustomed to playing without Middleton who missed a large volume of games with injuries so adapting without him shouldn’t be difficult. Atlanta may suffer in the short term without Hunter in the lineup and the new trade pieces (Levert & Niang) not in the building for this one. Lay the points with the Bucks (check Giannis status before tipoff).

ASA play on Denver Nuggets -7.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 9 PM ET - It’s highly unlikely that either of these teams are making a major move before the trade deadline today so we will back the Nuggets with the favorable scheduling in this one. On Monday the Magic looked horrific in a game against the Warriors. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. They played like a completely different team last night in Sacramento, beating the Kings 130-111, shooting well above expectations at 57% for the game. The Magic are now 2-9 SU in their last eleven games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -13.2. Orlando has an EFG% of 47.3% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 11-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -12.1ppg. The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude in Denver. Not only that, this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days so fatigue will be a factor against a Nuggets team accustomed to the altitude. Denver is playing at a very high level right now with 4 straight wins and 8 in their last eleven. If we examine that recent 11-game stretch we find the Nuggets have the best EFG%, 8th best Net Rating with an average +/- of +6.6ppg. Denver is 16-8 SU at home for the season with an average MOV of +6.4ppg. They are 5-1 SU their last five at home +13.3ppg. Denver has some of the best offensive numbers in the NBA, including an Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.193-points per possession. Orlando is 3rd in DEFF but teams have shot well against them as they rank 24th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. The scheduling advantage is the difference here and we like the Nuggets to grab a big home win.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Kings were involved in the NBA-trade-hoopla when they sent All-Star level guard DeAaron Fox to the Spurs and in exchange received Zach LaVine of the Bulls. Fox was putting up 25ppg, 5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 46.9% shooting. LaVine had similar numbers at 24ppg, 4.8rpg and 4.5apg on 51.1% shooting. Honestly the winner in this whole deal was the San Antonio Spurs but the Kings came out OK with LaVine and a bevy of future draft picks. LaVine will be in the lineup tonight with the Kings to face an Orlando team that is really struggling right now. The Magic just faced the Warriors the other night in what might be one of the ugliest NBA games I’ve ever watched. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. The Magic are 1-9 SU in their last ten games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -16.5. Orlando has an EFG% of 45.5% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 10-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -15.3ppg. Sacramento is 5-5 SU their last 10 games but a closer look reveals the five L’s are respectable coming to the Bucks, Nuggets, Knicks, 76ers (playing well right now) and Thunder. All five of those losses also came on the road. Sacramento is coming off a road win most recently over the Timberwolves after shooting 49% overall, 42% from beyond the arc. Even with a .500 record in their last ten games the Kings have the 11th best Net Rating in the league at +1.5. Sacramento has the 14th best EFG% over that 10-game stretch and has shot exceptionally well at home in recent games. The Kings have won 5 in a row on their home court by an average +/- of +8.8ppg. We like the Kings in this one.

ASA play on Miami Heat -3 at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Heat have had plenty of time to adjust to not playing with a star player in Jimmy Butler as he has been suspended while forcing a trade. The Bulls just traded their best player in Zach Lavine and basically got nothing in return to help them this season. Chicago is clearly in tank mode and going to try and build through the draft. The Bulls are also shopping Vet center Nikola Vucevic to other teams which is another sign they’ve called it for the year. Chicago isn’t in the best scheduling situation here after playing 3 straight road games and also being on the road for 6 of their last eight games. They are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and 1-5 SU their last six at home. Chicago has one of the worst home records in the NBA at 9-16 SU with an average loss margin of -3.6ppg. Miami doesn’t have a great overall road record this season at 11-13 SU, but they are a respectable 6-4 SU as a road chalk with an average MOV of +3.3 in those games. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of Offensive Efficiency with both averaging about 1.128-points per possession. The big separator comes defensively with the Bulls ranking 24th in Defensive Efficiency, the Heat rank 10th in DEFF. Miami has won 3 of their last four games and have moved on from the Jimmy Butler distraction. The Bulls are wondering who’s next to go from the locker room. Lay the points with the Heat!

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of the mid-season Tournament which the Bucks won 97-81 as a 5-point underdog. The Thunder were favored by -5-points on a neutral court in Vegas and are now only laying a slightly higher number at home. OKC is 20-3 SU at home this season with an average plus/minus of +14ppg. Last season the Thunder were 36-10 SU at home with an average point differential of +12.3ppg. OKC has the best EDIFF or Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +12.3, the Bucks number is 2.5. Milwaukee is 9-13 SU away from home this season after going 18-25 SU on the road last season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU their last five road games with the only win coming at Utah. They were beaten by 34 in New York, lost by 10 at the Clippers, won in Utah, lost at Portland by 13 and the Spurs by 26. The Thunder will be rested for this game while the Bucks are coming off a big game in Milwaukee against the Grizzlies last night. The Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS without rest this season. OKC has a little extra motivation tonight and win by double-digits here.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - The Spurs pulled off a blockbuster trade to land DeAaron Fox of the Kings without giving up anyone and now have a roster capable of making noise in the playoffs this season, and a title contender next season. San Antonio made a masterful trade to bring in the young dynamic Fox to pair with Wemby, Castle, Johnson and Sochan. This roster is now built to be a Championship contender for years to come if they can keep it together. Tonight, we like the Spurs and the points against a Grizzlies team coming off a huge win in Milwaukee last night. Memphis is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch which featured the Knicks in New York, home against the Rockets, then in Milwaukee last night. The Grizz are also shorthanded with Ja Morant sidelined with a shoulder injury. San Antonio is playing with double-revenge here as they lost twice to the Grizzlies in mid-January by 14 and 28-points. The Spurs were without Wembanyama in their last game, a loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, but he should be back for this game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-13 SU when playing without rest since the start of last season with an average point differential of minus -1.3ppg. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA when playing with a rest advantage with a 9-2 ATS record and an average MOV of +8.4ppg. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10 PM ET - The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder. Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1. Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively. Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5. Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers -8.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 5:10 PM ET - This line opened at Pacers -4.5 and has been bet up to the current number but we still have value on Indiana at -8. Atlanta has a depleted roster right now with several starters out and they are coming off a loss two nights ago in Cleveland. This is also their 4th game since Jan 27th which included a back-to-back set on the 27/28th. Atlanta has lost 7 straight games with three road losses by 9, 8 and 22-points. Indiana was just favored by -6-points at home against a Pistons team that is playing well right now so this line isn’t as high as you might think. The Pacers have won 5 of their last six at home with the lone loss coming to the Cavaliers. The five home wins in that stretch of games came by 18, 16, 12, 13 and 14-points. In each teams last 7 games the Pacers have the 7th best Net Rating in the NBA, the Hawks have the 27th worst. Indiana has won and covered 4 in a row against the Hawks and the last time they met on this court the Pacers hung 157 on this Hawks defense.

ASA play on Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are playing lights out basketball right now with 5 straight wins and victories in 7 of their last eight games. The only loss in that stretch of games was in Milwaukee, who is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. In fact, Toronto has the 2nd best Net Rating in the league over their last five games at +14.6. Only the Knicks have been better in that span of games at +15.6. The Bulls are playing poorly as their entire team gets mentioned in trades daily and it’s clearly had an impact on their play. Chicago is 2-8 SU in their last ten games and has the 5th worst Net Rating in that stretch of games at -8.8. All but one of the Bulls last eight losses have come by more than tonight’s point spread. Chicago’s defense is near the bottom of the league in several categories including Defensive Efficiency as they allow 1.161PPP, 23rd most in the NBA. The Raptors don’t have great season statistics, but again, in their last five games they have the 2nd best DEFF in the league allowing 1.057PPP. The trade distractions for the Bulls is apparent and the Raptors are playing at a peak level right now. Lay the points with Toronto.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The Spurs just spent some time overseas in France for a two-game set with the Pacers. After that distraction and travel we will bet against them here versus the Clippers. L.A. is coming off a 109-111 loss on Monday night to the Suns and we expect them to bounce back here with a resounding road win. The Clippers are 11-8 ATS when coming off a loss with a positive differential of +1.2ppg. As a road favorite this season the Clippers are 3-3 ATS but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +9.7ppg. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -6.4ppg. The Spurs have faced the Grizzlies twice, Denver and this Clippers team in their last four true home games. They were beaten by 28 and 14 by Memphis, lost by 1-point to Denver and embarrassed this Clippers club by 36 on this court. Kawhi Leonard did not play in the most recent meeting and should be available this time around. Looking at the Clippers 10 most recent games we find they have the 3rd best Net Rating differential in the NBA. In that same 10 games the Spurs rank 25th. The Spurs offense will have a tough time against this Clippers defense that is 3rd in opponents FG%, 3rd in 3PT% and give up the 3rd fewest points per gam3e at 106.9. Before getting throttled in the most recent meeting the Clippers had won 8 in a row against the Spurs, four of which were in San Antonio, all by more than this spread.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 at Portland Trailblazers, 6pm et - The Blazers four game winning streak is a bit of fool’s gold as it came against four teams with a combined 77-102 SU record and each team has some current ‘issues’. In that stretch of games, the Blazers beat the Heat and Bulls who are in the middle of several trade rumors, Orlando who is adjusting to players coming back and Charlotte without LaMelo Ball. Porland returns home where they are 9-12 SU with a negative point differential of -9.1ppg. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Mavericks, so we expect them to bounce back here with a little more energy and focus than normal. The Thunder are 41-34 ATS going back to 2022 when coming off a SU loss. OKC is 16-5 SU, 12-7-2 ATS this season on the road with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.1ppg. Recently the Blazers lost at home by 22 to the Rockets (-11) and by 29 to the Clippers (-7). OKC has won 14 straight meetings with the Blazers including a win on this court in early November by 23-points. We typically don’t like laying double-digits on the road but will make an exception here.

ASA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30pm et - The Clippers and Bucks got off to poor starts this season, but both have turned things around with Milwaukee winning 5 straight and 8 of ten, while the Clippers are 5-2 SU their last seven. LA has also won 16 of their last twenty home games, 6 of their last eight in their own building by an average of +15ppg. When it comes to overall season statistics these teams are identical in terms of Net Rating at +3.3. At home the Clippers Net Rating is +7.9, the 5th highest number in the NBA, the Bucks road Net Rating is -2.4 or 17th. The biggest advantage for the Clippers in this matchup is on the boards. LA is the 6th best rebounding team in the NBA the Bucks are 14th. Milwaukee is last in the NBA in offensive rebounding but 1st in defensive rebounding. The Clippers though average just 3 less defensive rebounds per game than Milwaukee so there isn’t much of an advantage there. The Bucks are in the center of trade rumors which has to be a distraction for several players including key contributors in Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others. Of the Bucks 8 road wins this season only two have come against teams with winning records. Lay the points here with the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets.