ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money!

ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - We can’t help but grab the extra value and the Under in this game as the line opened 233 on this game but now sits at the current bloated number. Scoring overall is up this season in the NBA at 228 total points per contest so you can see for yourself this number is much higher than that. These teams can score as they are the 2nd and 9th most efficient offenses in terms of points per possession. But both are also very slow paced ranking 21st and 23rd in possessions per game. When it comes to defensive efficiency they both are slightly lower than league average. Denver though has been significantly better on the defensive end of the court in their last five games allowing just 1.103-points per possession which ranks 3rd best. The Blazers road games this season have averaged 220.1 total points, while the Nuggets have games have averaged 228.4 total points. The Nuggets will do everything possible to slow down Damian Lillard who has scored 36 and 40 in his last two games. The Blazers have a physical center of their own in Nurkic who matches up well with Jokic for the Nuggets. We will bet the value here and play UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Toronto Raptors @ NY Knicks, 3 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season with both games staying below the number with 220 and 219 total points being scored. The O/U numbers set by the oddsmakers on those two games were 216.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Historically, if we look back at the last nine meetings the most combined points scored by these two teams is 225. All other meetings have been less than that. We are expecting both defenses to dominate in this game as the Raptors allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA, the Knicks allow the 7th fewest. Both teams are also slower paced so we know it won’t be a high possession game. The Raptors are the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.2 possessions per game, the Knicks are 8th slowest at 97.8 possessions per game. The Knicks are coming off a road game yesterday and their games average 218.7PPG when they play without rest. Unless both teams shoot well above their season averages, we can’t see this game going Over the Total.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here.

ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league and getting to this number will be a tall task. In fact, the Cavaliers are THE slowest team in the NBA at 95.6 possessions per game. Portland isn’t much faster ranking 24th slowest. The Cavaliers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league as they allow just 1.098-points per possession. Portland ranks 17th in that category and give up 112PPG. Neither team is high scoring either as the Blazers average 112.1PPG (22nd) while the Cavs score 111.5PPG (26th). Portland has stayed Under in 4 straight games and 8 of their last nine. They recently played two similar teams to the Cavs in the Magic and Raptors and those games finished with 215 and 222 total points. Cleveland has played a stretch of games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams so this number is set higher than it should be. The Cavs are on a 6-0 Under streak when facing a team with a losing record. We will be on the UNDER here!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is lower than it should be according to our computers and we will bet accordingly. The Celtics are the 8th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season yet are coming off a game in which they went 11 of 41 from Deep or 27%. We expect them to have a better shooting night here, even against a Pelicans defense that defends the Arc well. The Pels may be without one of their best wing defenders in this game with Herb Jones questionable. New Orleans is coming off a 132-point game against the Wizards on Monday. Boston is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.5PPG while the Pelicans are 4th at 117.4. Both defenses are slightly better than average in terms of points allowed per game. Boston is 16th in the league in pace of play, New Orleans is 12th so we know we’ll get plenty of possessions from each team. These are essentially two top 10 teams in terms of team field goal percentage shooting so they don’t need a high possession game to put up points. This has been an Under series of late, but that changes tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors, 3:40 PM ET - The Blazers are coming off several games against some of the league's fastest paced teams and 3 of the four games ended Under the total. In their two most recent games versus the Timberwolves and Pacers (6th and 7th in pace) they combined for 219 and 207 total points. Now they face a Toronto team that is the 5th slowest in the NBA at 97.1 possessions per game. The Raptors have played in two low scoring games in their last two with total points being scored of 220 and 205. Portland also prefers a lower possession game as they rank 7th slowest in pace of play at 97.7 possessions per game. Both teams are near average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings so with the lower pace we shouldn’t see this game being near the league average of 227.6 total points. The Blazers are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Toronto Under in 3 of the last four at home.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points

ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This will be a game where both teams get plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. On the season the Hornets are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA at 101 possessions per game. The bucks are 14th at 99.7. In their last five games though the Hornets are averaging 105.7 possessions per game (1st), the Bucks are at 102.7 (3rd most). Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as they give up over 118PPG. They have allowed 121 or more points in 6 of their last eight and 130+ twice. The Bucks defensive numbers are some of the best in the league but they’ve had a few hiccups lately allowing 118 or more in 5 of their last nine games. The Hornets get a large portion of their scoring on fast break opportunities and points in the paint. Surprisingly, the Bucks are average defensively in stopping fast break points and points in the paint. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible shooting night in Toronto and will find their stroke back at home where they shoot 47.6% on the season. Scoring has been trending up in the NBA and this number is within reach of an average NBA game which is 227.6 total points.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just squared off the other day in Milwaukee and produced 213 total points and stayed Under the number of 221.5. They had plenty of possessions though as the Wizards attempted 94 field goals, the Bucks hoisted 96. Milwaukee shot just 35% from the field overall and 27% from Deep which are both well below season averages of 45.6% and 34.2%. Washington scored 118-points without Bradley Beal (23.5PPG) who may be back in the lineup tonight. The Bucks were missing their two leading scorers as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were both out. Giannis and his 32PPG is expected back tonight along with Holiday’s 19PPG. Washington is averaging 121PPG in their last five contests and the Bucks defense is giving up that same amount in their last five games. Both of these teams will get to 115 or more points here. Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - We were on the Under in the Heat/Nuggets last night which unfortunately lost but we had the pace of play we needed to win that bet but couldn’t predict an insanely hot shooting night by the Nuggets. Denver shot 61% from Deep and 59% overall. Miami too outperformed season shooting expectations by making 40% of their 3-point attempts (34% on the year). Both teams are coming off games last night as the Jazz just totaled 251 total points with the Kings in Sacramento (both teams shot over 55% from the field, well above season averages). The Jazz have played three straight games against three of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they get a Miami team that is the 5th slowest. Those three teams the Jazz faced are also bad defensively, whereas the Heat rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.11-points per possession. Miami has faced three teams that have similar metrics to the Jazz in the Lakers, Wolves and Pacers and those three games finished with 210, 223 and 219 total points. When playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back the Jazz average less points than their season average. With both teams coming off games last night, our computers suggest a slower paced game here and an ‘average’ shooting night for both.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 224.5 Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.3 possessions per game. The Nuggets are the 13th slowest at 98.7 possessions per game. That means there is a high probability of a very low possession game here and a slower pace. Denver is very efficient offensively ranking 3rd best in the league. Miami is not as they are the 3rd least efficient offense in the NBA. Defensively the Heat hld the advantage with the 7th best defensive efficiency rating while the Nuggets rank 25th. Denver has been much better defensively in their last 5 games though with the 6th best efficiency number allowed at 1.116-points per possession. The Heat are on a 6-2 Under streak, Denver has played Under in 6 of their last nine games. We expect those trends to continue for both teams here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - We love the value in this number as these same two teams just met last week and the O/U posted by Vegas was 219.5. They combined for 218 total points on 161 field goal attempts. An average NBA game finishes with 227 total points scored on 176 field goal attempts. Neither are great shooting teams as the Mavs rank 18th in overall FG%, while the Rockets are 29th. These two teams also prefer to play slower as the Rockets rank 17th in pace of play at 99.1 possessions per game. The Mavericks are slower yet ranking as the second slowest team in the league ahead of only the Cavaliers. In the other meeting this season between these two teams they combined for 193 points on this court. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times these two teams have met, including 4 straight. Based on our calculations this game will finish with 219 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - We are betting the value of the number in this game and that’s Under the total. These two teams met in late November and the O/U on that game was 224. They scored 231 points in that game but both teams shot above their season averages. In fact, the last ten meetings have all finished with 231 or less points with the Under cashing 8 of ten times. Milwaukee holds the 6th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.104-points per possession. They are coming off a horrible defensive showing last time out when they allowed 139 points to the Celtics. Expect a very focused effort here off that embarrassing outing. The Bulls are in a similar situation as they just gave up 133 to the Rockets. Chicago is slightly below the league average in DEFF but they are slightly better defensively at home. When the Bucks have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219 total points. The Bulls games at home are averaging 226.1PPG. Combined these two teams have road/home records of 10-20-1 to the Under. This one stays Under the number.

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET

The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Sunday 5:00 pm ET - This is a rematch of last year's playoff series which the Celtics won in 7 games. All seven of those games finished with 224 or less points. The four games in that series where the Celtics were the host averaged 198 total points. Neither team plays fast as they both average around 99 possessions per game which is about league average. The Bucks are the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.095-points per possession. The Celtics own the 8th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.111PPP. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings between these two rivals.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - According to our computer this is a very generous number by the oddsmakers. Our simulators are projecting 218 total points being scored here. When it comes to pace of play these two teams prefer a slower tempo. The Magic are the 9th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Rockets are the 12th slowest. Neither is efficient in their scoring either as the Magic average 1.108 points per every possession (25th in OEFF) while the Rockets average 1.094PPP (26th OEFF). Neither team shoots it well as the Magic rank 17th in FG% and 21st in 3-point shooting. The Rockets offense is worse shooting 44.2% as a team (30th) and 32.7% from beyond the arc which ranks 28th. Both defenses are average or slightly below. Houston has scored or allowed 108 or less points in eight straight games. Orlando has allowed 109 or less in 7 of their last ten regulations. We like this game UNDER the total

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Bulls should step up defensively tonight after allowing an embarrassing 150-points in their last game to the Timberwolves. Minnesota shot a ridiculous 66% overall, 53% from Deep which are clearly both aberrations. Miami is coming off a few games against teams that like to play fast or are high scoring yet they’ve stayed below 219 total points in 4 straight. The Heat are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at 25th in possessions per game. The Bulls try to play faster, ranking 10th. The Bulls rank 22nd in offensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession, the Heat are 27th at 1.093PPP. Defensively both rank in the top half of the league in efficiency with the Heat checking in at 6th. The Bulls are 15th. This is the highest number posted on this series in the last 10 meetings. In the only other meeting this season the Over-Under number was 217. We expect the defenses to dominate tonight and a game in the 216 range.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:40 PM ET - An average NBA game is 226.4 total points per game. Clearly this number is below that and we don’t see this game being ‘average’. On the season the 76ers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, Golden State is the fastest. Philly though has seen an uptick in their overall tempo with the return of James Harden. In their last five games the Sixers are 15th in pace of play. Not surprisingly, also with the return of Harden the defense of the 76ers has regressed. Golden State is without Curry here but do get Klay Thompson back to anchor the 5th highest scoring offense in the NBA. The Warriors road games this season have averaged 238.1PPG. Philly at home has averaged 218. Golden State has gone Over in 5 straight road games, Philadelphia is on a 4-1 Over streak themselves. It’s not too much to ask both teams to score more than 111-points each.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - We successfully played Under last night in the Timberwolves vs. Clippers game and will stay with another Under on the Clippers again tonight. Let’s consider this. Last night the Wolves/Clippers Over-Under number was 221 and the Wolves are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA with the 17th worst defensive efficiency. The line on tonight’s game is just 3-points higher and the Suns are the 9th slowest paced team in the league and rank 10th in DEFF. The Clippers have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.098PPP. Los Angeles also prefers a slow tempo ranking 8th lowest in possessions per game. This series has seen 5 straight Unders cash, 4 last season and 1 this year with the five meetings averaging just 204.8PPG. Since the start of last season, the Suns are 41-44 Under against other Western Conference teams, the Clippers are 28-46-1 or 62.2% Under. If it’s not broken, why fix it. Bet Under again tonight.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers – 10:10PM ET - The Clippers just faced the #1 offensive team in the NBA in the Celtics and the O/U number on that game was 225.5. It finished with just 206 total points. LA has the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.104-points per possession. Minnesota ranks 20th in DEFF but do limit foes to just 46.2% shooting which is 9th best overall in the league. The Timberwolves defense doesn’t have to be great though as the Clippers offense is 29th in scoring at 107.9PPG and have the 4th worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Wolves aren’t a whole lot better offensively ranking 18th in OEFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well at 33.4% which is 25th. Minnesota will want to play fast but the Clippers will dictate the tempo they want as the home team and they prefer to play slow (23rd pace). We don’t see this game getting above 216.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 233.5 Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Celtics are the #1 offensive team in the NBA in terms of scoring at 120PPG and efficiency at 1.194PPP. Boston is the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 39.7% and rank 8th in 3PT attempts per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.3PPG. The Lakers are 19th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.127PPP. In the Lakers most recent 5-game stretch they have allowed 122.2PPG which is the highest in the NBA. But, in that same stretch of 5-games they are 6th in scoring at 118.2PPG. Pace of play is important here as the Lakers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA. The Celtics are 15th. Boston has the best Over record in the NBA when playing without rest at 15-4-1 since the start of last season and those games have gone Over by an average of +12.2PPG.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - Dallas is coming off a huge showdown at home against the Bucks and will have a tough time in the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Chicago meanwhile has been off since Dec 7th. The Bulls recently played a very tough stretch of road games going 2-4 SU. They then returned home and got a solid home win against the Wizards. Dallas is just 3-8 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG. Chicago is 6-5 SU at home with a +1.7PPG average margin of victory. The Mavs are 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Since the start of last season the Mavericks have the 4th worst ATS record in the NBA when it comes to playing out of Conference at 15-24-2. This is a great spot for Chicago and we like them here in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These two teams just met recently in Milwaukee with a total of 216.5. They went over that number with 239 total points. With the adjustment of the O/U we like the value and an Under bet here. In the game the other day both teams shot well above their season averages as the Bucks hit 56% from the field (46.1% season ave), while the Mavs shot 51% (47.2% season average). The two teams attempted 166 total field goals which is significantly lower than the league average of 176.2. On the season the Bucks road games have averaged 213.3 total points per game. Dallas at home has averaged 216.2PPG. Milwaukee owns the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA and are 11th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee is average in pace of play and the Mavericks are the 2nd slowest in terms of tempo. Both teams are in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating too. It all adds up to a less than average NBA score. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We get two of the slowest paced teams in the league squaring off here is what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Phoenix Suns rank 24th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game. The Dallas Mavericks are slower yet ranking 29th at 95.6 possessions per game. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency but also both top 10 in defensive efficiency. This series has seen the Under cash in 5 of the last six meetings and all six of those games finished with less than 213 total points. This is going to be a half-court game and unless both teams shoot remarkably well it stays under by 10+ points.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 232 Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets – 8:40 PM ET - The Rockets are in a tough situation here as are the Warriors. Houston is coming off an improbable upset of the Suns last night in Phoenix as a +11.5-point dog. Prior to that game the Rockets had played 2 straight in the higher altitude of Denver making this their 4th game in six days. Golden State played last night too and will probably rest Klay Thompson and maybe even Draymond Green here. This is the Warriors 3rd game in five days. These same two teams just met in Houston and produced a combined 247 total points. The Rockets defense has been especially bad allowing 119 or more in 7 of their last ten games. Even without Thompson in the lineup for GST the Warriors can still score with Poole and DiVincenzo off the bench. Poole just poured in 30-points last night. Golden State historically has been a great defense under Steve Kerr but that hasn’t been the case this season as they rank 17th in defensive efficiency and give up 117PPG. The young Rockets are starting to figure things out offensively as they have scored 118 or more points in 4 of their last six. Two tired teams won’t play much defense tonight and this goes Over rather easily.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - Both teams are coming off disappointing losses which can largely be attributed to poor offensive play. The 76ers managed just 85-points against the Cavaliers, shooting just 42% overall and 23% from Deep. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 27-times and missed 12-free throws in a loss at Minnesota. We expect both offenses to get back on track here. For the season the Grizzlies have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating overall and when playing at home. The 76ers rank 19th overall in OEFF but have a higher efficiency rating when playing on the road. The 76ers also tend to play faster when away from Philly and give up more points per possession. Memphis has played much faster in their last five games and will want to dictate tempo in this one, forcing the Sixers to also play fast. When Philly is the road team this season those games have averaged 217.2PPG. When the Grizzlies have played at home those contests have averaged 226.9PPG. Let’s not forget that an average NBA game this season has finished with 226 total points which means we need an ‘average’ performance from both teams to cash this ticket.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - The Pistons just allowed 140-points to the Knicks which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this line higher than it should be. The Mavericks are the slowest paced team in the league and score just 109.4PPG. They will slow things down and keep them from being a high scoring game. Detroit is 15th or basically average in pace. It’s not like the Mavs are great when it comes to offensive efficiency either as they rank 11th in points per possession. Detroit ranks 23rd in points per possession at 1.099PPP. The Mavs are 9th in defensive efficiency and will limit the Pistons scoring opportunities here. Granted Detroit is 2nd to last in DEFF but you can expect Dallas to do their best to manage load minutes for Luka Doncic and the rest of the starters. Detroit recently played a Cavaliers team that is similar to Dallas in many regards and the game finished with 196 total points. Dallas has allowed point to a few good offenses in recent games (Warriors, Bucks, Celtics) but if you remove those teams they have allowed 105 or less in 5 straight games. The Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics are shooting 40% from deep which ranks 1st in the NBA. They shoot 49% overall which is 4th and they average the most points per game at 120.4PPG. Defensively the Celtics aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past ranking 14th in PPG allowed at 113.3. They also allow opponents to shoot 46.8% (16th) overall and 34.9% from beyond the arc (12th). The Hornets are averaging 109.4PPG which is one of the lower numbers in the league and allowing 114.2PPG which is roughly league average. Charlotte is playing at a faster pace in recent games as they are the 8th fastest team in their last five games. Boston is on a 9-0 Over streak at home when facing a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is on a 6-0 Over run when playing on the road versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Boston has scored 122 or more points themselves in 7 of their last ten games. This one gets Over the number rather easily.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 213 Points - Portland Trailblazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low, AGAIN. We successfully played Under in the Blazers/Bucks game on Monday night and this is nearly the exact same setup as that game. The Cavaliers are similar to the Bucks in defensive efficiency but much better in OEFF as they average 1.162-poins per possession. Granted the Cavs play slower than the Bucks but again, they make up for it by being highly efficient. Proof is in the numbers as the Cavs average 115PPG, compared to the Bucks 111PPG. The Blazers defense has allowed their last five opponents to average over 50% shooting and the Cavs have averaged better than 50% in their last five games. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Cavs games have averaged 223.85PPG. This is one of the lowest O/U numbers posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Cavs game. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 226+ in their last five.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Suns are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season at 97 possessions per game but they are 9th in PPG averaged at 115.1PPG. A big reason the Suns put up points is their overall shooting as they rank 10th in overall FG% and 6th in 3PT%. The Lakers though have the 12th best FG% defense in the league, 4th in defending the 3-point line. The Lakers are going to have their own problems scoring against this Suns defense that ranks 8th in defensive efficiency at 1.105PPP allowed per possession. Los Angeles is 19th in scoring at 111.1PPG are 21st in team FG% and 30th in 3-point shooting. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings and we predict a lower scoring game here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Portland Trailblazers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low as a result of Damian Lillard’s injury tonight. As soon as Lillard was ruled out with a calf injury this number dipped by 3-full points. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Bucks games have averaged 217.5PPG. This is the lowest O/U number posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Bucks game. Milwaukee just played a game against the 76ers and the O/U was 212.5 and the 76ers are worse defensively and offensively than the Blazers and play at a similar pace. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 220+ in their last five.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Brooklyn Nets @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - With it being NFL Sunday this is going to be an abbreviated analysis. Since Irvings suspension the Nets defense has been outstanding. Brooklyn has allowed 86, 94, 96, 85 and 95-points in five games. Their defensive efficiency on the season is 8th best at 1.105-points allowed per possession but in their last five games that number improves to .967PPP. Brooklyn is the 6th slowest paced team in the league and 12th in offensive efficiency. The Lakers are bad! LA is LAST in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.054PPP (slightly behind the Clippers who Brooklyn just held to 95Pts). The Lakers don’t have a clear identity right now when it comes to pace of play as they tend to play fast with other fast teams, then slow with grinding teams. LA is 29th in PPG scored, 25th in FG% and 30th in 3PT%. Even after the line move in this game we still like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER!

ASA top play 10* on #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 220 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great comparative opponent analysis here as the Pistons just faced the Bucks in two games who are very similar to the Cavs in terms of pace, offensive and defensive efficiency. In those two games the Bucks/Pistons totaled 207 and 218 total points. Cleveland has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the league allowing just 1.055-poins per possession and are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA. The Pistons are 10th in pace, but have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the league. Cleveland is the ‘alpha’ team here and they’ll dictate tempo and keep this game from being high scoring. It looks like the Cavs may rest Donovan Mitchell here and his 31PPG will be missed. Last season, in the four meetings between these two teams they totaled 222 or less in all four. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Even vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40 PM ET - We get two elite teams in this showdown with both coming off 2 straight losses making this game a higher priority. Last Thursday these same two teams met in Golden State with the Warriors coming out on top 123-110 as a minus -5.5-point favorite. That natural swing in the line should have the Heat favored by -2.5-points here so let’s grab the value with Miami. The Heat were 36-15 SU in the regular season at home last year with a +/- of +5.8PPG. Golden State is 41-50 SU since 2020 on the road with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. The Warriors live and die by the 3-pointer and the Heat historically under coach Spoelstra defend the arc as well as anyone. This season they are 26th in the league in 3-point percentage D but they’ve been top 11 the past three years, 2nd a year ago. The Warriors defense is 30th in the NBA in points allowed this season and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Miami has covered 5 of the last seven at home versus the Warriors. Bet the home team!

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228.5 Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Tempo or pace plays an important component of this wager as we have one fast paced team in the Spurs (102.7 possessions per game) and the Bulls who are slightly faster than league average at 100. San Antonio is the 4th fastest team in the NBA, Chicago is 14th. But the Bulls pace numbers are a little misleading as four of the five teams they’ve faced are some of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The one game they faced a fast-paced team like the Spurs they finished with 233 points against Indiana and that Total was set at 234.5. In that comparison, the Spurs are just as fast as Indiana, way better offensively with the 9th most efficient offense and nearly identical defensively. San Antonio has struggled defensively allowing 121.6PPG but are also scoring 118PPG. The strength and weaknesses of both teams will exploit each other here. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well with the Spurs hitting 38.6% from deep which is 8th in the NBA. The Bulls hit 37.1% from beyond the arc which is good for 13th in the league. Neither team defends the deep ball well either with the Spurs ranking 25th in 3PT% “D” and the Bulls ranking 29th. Both teams have similar makeups to last years rosters and in the two meetings a season ago they put up 229 and 253 total points. Easy Over!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - Brooklyn is coming off an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last night and we should see a much better effort at home against the Mavs. The Nets/Bucks had a Total set of 228.5 last night and managed just 209 combined points. This number of 228.5 is the highest number set on a Mavs game this year by 9-full points. Pace will play an important role in this outcome as we have the 3rd slowest paced team in the Mavs and 15th in Brooklyn. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Nets are 12th in the league at 1.115-points per possession, the Mavericks are 1st at 1.231PPP which is not sustainable. In comparison, last season Dallas had an OEFF of 1.129PPP which was around league average. Last season in the two regular season meetings these two combined for 224 and 201 total points. Both teams have shot well above expectations early on but that should trend down as the weeks go on. Our projections have this game in the low 220’s. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Money and tickets have driven his number up throughout the betting markets which gives us some added value on the Under. The Warriors have scored 123 and 130 in their last two games but those results came against Sacramento and Denver which rank 22nd and 29th in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they face a Phoenix team that allows just 1.053-points per possession which is 5th in the NBA. That’s not a shock either as the Suns were 3rd last season in DEFF. Golden State cannot maintain the pace of play they are currently playing at of 109.6 possessions per game. A great comparison is what they averaged last season of 98.3 possessions per game. Phoenix will want to slow this home game down as they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league at this point of the season. In fact, Phoenix just played a similar team to the Warriors in terms of scoring when they went to Portland who is averaging 117.3PPG and held them to 102-points in regulation. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 200, 214, 223 and 210 total points. That trend continues here…BET UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215. Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors has essentially their roster intact from a year ago but the Cavs made the biggest offseason splash in the league with a trade for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Cleveland will take some time to adjust with Mitchell on the floor with Darius Garland so expect some lower scoring early on. These two teams were two of the best on the defensive end of the court and that’s not going to change this season. The Raptors were 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.106-points per possession. The Cavs were 7th at 1.097PPP. Both teams played extremely slow with the Cavs being the 26th slowest paced team in the league, while the Raptors were 27th. Neither team was great offensively with the Raptors ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, the Cavaliers were 20th at 1.119PPP. Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Under is the play here between a pair of Eastern Conference teams that don’t like each other. Last season in four regular season meetings these two combined for 222, 210, 211 and 175-total points. The highest scoring game came in mid-February when the Celtics scored a ridiculous 135-points. The O/U’s on all four games were set lower than this number. The Celts were 24th in pace of play last season, the 76ers were 25th. Boston was the 2nd best defensive efficiency team, the Sixers were 12th. In the last six meetings between these two teams in Boston the Under is 5-1. We expect the offenses for both teams to struggle in the opener and predict a low scoring game. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics, Game 4 9 PM ET - Two of the three meetings have finished with more than tonight’s Total posted by Vegas and we like that trend to continue in Game 4. More money and tickets are coming in on the Under here, yet the line has trickled up which tells us to follow the move. In Game 3 the pace of play and shooting had the game on pace for a Total near 230 at the end of the 3rd quarter but then the Warriors couldn’t make a shot in the 4th. Golden State scored just 11-points in the final quarter on 5 of 15 shooting including 1-8 performance from the 3-point line. Golden State shot 46% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson finally found his stroke scoring 25-points. Boston had 3 players score 20+ and haven’t had problems hunting shots against the Warriors in two of the three games where they shot 51% in Game 1 and 48% in Game 3. The Celtics averaged 110PPG at home this season and held the 12th best offensive efficiency rating at home. The Warriors have been the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs at 1.160-points per possession. Our model is projecting 221 total points in this game. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - We are betting Under in Game 2. The Celtics made 13.3 3-pointers per game during the regular season and then exploded for 21 in Game 1. Overall, the Celtics shot 51% for the game and scored 40 points in the 4th quarter alone. We expect a regression in Game 2 and a trend back to the norm. Boston was 15th in the league in team field goal percentage at 46.6% and 14th in 3PT% ranking 14th. We certainly don’t see them shooting as well in Game 2 considering the Warriors were 2nd in team FG% defense at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% at 33.9%. Golden State was 39 of 88 from the field overall (44%) and 19 of 45 from Deep or 42%. Boston is going to make some defensive adjustments and do a better job of defending Curry who started red-hot in Game 1 before coach Kerr sat him for an extended amount of time in the 2nd quarter to cool him off. Let’s not forget, the Celtics allow the least number of points in the league, have the best field goal percentage defense and rank 1st defending the 3-point line. These two teams ranked 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.070-points per possession. This game is going to be a dog fight and we expect both teams to ratchet up their defensive intensity. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* Over 201.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - VALUE! The two other games played in Boston in this series had Over/Under numbers of 208 and 206 so you can see the value we are getting here. Three of the five games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The two games that didn’t go Over the number were Games 4 &5 which both featured horrendous shooting nights at 33% & 32% by Miami, which are both well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). The Heat are the #1 or best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season, yet are coming off a game in which they made just 7 of 45 3-point attempts or 16%. That clearly is an aberration and can’t continue. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics shot just 40% in Game 4 at home but bounced back with a 46% night in Game 5 in Miami. We like that trend to continue here at home in this elimination game. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 165 in Game 5 and 168, 162, 170 and 169 in the previous games of this series. Boston’s home games have averaged 213PPG this season, Miami’s road contests have averaged 213.1PPG. Grab the value and bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This is another closeout game for the Warriors who lead this series 3-1 and are at home with one of the best defenses in the NBA. This series has been a classic Zig-Zag when it comes to the Over-Under with Game 1 staying Under, 2 going Over etc…Dallas has been a poor shooting team all season long ranking 18th in overall team FG% at 46.1% and 19th in 3-point% at 35%. They had shot poorly in this series until Game 4 at home in Dallas when they hit 50% from the field and 47% from Deep. We don’t expect that to happen again against this Warriors defense that 3rd in points allowed per game, 2nd in defensive field goal percentage allowed and 34rd in 3PT% defense. The Mavericks have been a great defensive team all season too ranking 6th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.094PPP and giving up just 104.7PPG. Dallas also holds the 4th ranked 3PT% defense in the league allowing 34%. The Mavs made some offensive adjustments in Game 3 which improved their offense against the Warriors zone defense, so now expect Golden State to make another adjustment to counter the Mavs. This one stays Under!

ASA top play on 10* Over 203.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - Three of the four games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The only game that didn’t go Over the number was Game 4 in Boston when the Heat had a horrendous shooting night at 33% which is well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). With Miami coming back home tonight we expect a much better shooting performance. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics put up 102 points in the most recent game but they basically coasted in the second half, scoring 45-points after putting up 57 in the first half. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 168 in Game 4, 162, 170 and 169. Based on those FGA’s, shooting percentages this game should result with a minimum of 214 total points. The Heat home playoff games have averaged 213.25 total points. Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks, Tuesday Game 4 - The Mavs are facing elimination in large part because of poor offensive execution and bad shooting. For all his greatness, Luka is a ball-stopper on offense and there is very little movement by the rest of the players. That’s why the Mavs were last in the league in average time of possession before taking a shot at 15.5 seconds. In the regular season this Dallas team had just 7,902 total possessions which was by far the lowest number in the league. The Mavericks were not a great shooting team during the regular season, ranking 18th at 46.1% overall and 19th in 3-point percentage at 35%. Against a very good Warriors defense they have really struggled at 41% overall and 32% from Deep in this series. Golden State is 3rd overall in the league allowing 105.5PPG, 2nd in FG% D at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% defense allowing 33.9%. Golden State is obviously known for their shooters and offense but their points haven’t come easy against this sold Dallas defense that makes them earn every point. Dallas was 6th in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing just 1.094PPP and 104.7PPG. What we have seen in this series is a steady decline in total field goal attempts with 168 in Game 1, 160 in Game 2 and 156 in Game 3. Those are well below the league average. We like Under here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics, Game 3 Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 the Celtics did not shoot well from Downtown against Miami as they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. In Game 2 the Celtics shot 51% overall and 50% from beyond the Arc in their blowout win over Miami. Miami, who is the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30 in Game 1 but still managed to score 118 points. In Game 2 the Heat really struggled with a 10 of 34 night from beyond the 3-point line or 29%. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. In Game 2 the Celtics scored 30 or more points by themselves in 3 of four quarters. Miami is on an 8-1 Over streak their last nine games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-2 Over their last eleven when also facing a team with a winning record. In 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams they’ve combined for more than 207 total points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, Game 2 Friday 9 PM ET - After the blowout loss in Game 1 we expect the Mavericks offense to return tonight and a much better shooting performance by Dallas in Game 2. Dallas shot just 36% overall and 23% (11 of 48) from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 46.1% and 35%. Dallas managed just 36 total points in the 1st and 4th quarter combined which is well below their season average of 52PPG scored in those two quarters during the regular season. The Warriors shot 56% from the field in Game 1 or 46 of 82. The game plan was clearly to attack the Mavs interior defense which is lacking a rim protector as evidenced by their 29 3-point attempts which was much lower than their season average of 39.5. Both teams are going to make adjustments and have more success from Deep in Game 2 which should push this game Over the number rather easily. Golden State’s home games have averaged 217 total points per game in the postseason. The Mavs road playoff games have averaged 214 total points. The Over is 60% or 6-4 the last ten meetings. We expect both teams to have a much better shooting night from the 3-point line, along with a slightly faster pace throughout the entire game (slowed dramatically in the 4th with the Warriors in cruise control). Bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - The pace of play in Game 1 was extremely slow with only 159 field goal attempts but the big reason the game went Over the total was the volume of free throws by both teams and 3-pointers attempted and made. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 66 free throws which is 22 more than league average for an NBA game. As we predicted in G1 the Celtics would not shoot as well from Downtown against Miami as they did against the Bucks, and they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. We expect adjustments here and a slightly better shooting night in Game 2 from Boston. Miami, who the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30. The Heat should settle in and have a better night from distance in G2. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. Miami’s home games in the playoffs have averaged 209.5PPG. Boston’s road playoff games have averaged 216 total points. Both teams are in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts which will help this game get Over the number in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Money Line -125 over the Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston is coming off a draining 7-game series over the Bucks, had to travel and have just 1 day off after playing a very short rotation against Milwaukee. The Heat have been off since Thursday the 12th and are plenty rested here. The Celtics benefitted from great 3-point shooting in their series against the Bucks who have a horrible defensive philosophy defending the 3 (and ranked 19th in the NBA in 3PT% D). The Celtics made 53 more 3’s than Milwaukee in the series. Boston isn’t going to get those wide-open looks against Miami who held the 2nd best 3PT% defense in the NBA this season at 33.9%. The C’s were an average shooting team during the regular season, ranking 15th in overall FG% and 14th in 3PT%. Miami shot 46.7% during the regular season which was 13th overall but they were the best or #1 ranked 3-point shooting team at 37.9%. Granted, the Celtics are great at defending the Arc, but they won’t hold this Heat team to 12% as they did the Bucks in Game 7. Miami is 29-12 SU at home this regular season with a +/- of +5.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. They’ve gone 6-0 SU at home in the postseason with an average Margin of Victory of +17PPG. This is a bad situation for Boston and a great one for Miami. Bet the Heat!

#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET Thursday - The 76ers played well at home in Games 3 & 4 with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. Then Miami flexed their muscle in Game 5 at home in a blowout. We are betting the 76ers don’t shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. In Game 5 they shot just 36% overall and 28% from 3. Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. We don’t expect Miami to shoot as well as they did in the previous game when they hit 54% of their FG attempts and scored 120-points. The field goal attempts for this series has been unusually low with 171, 162, 144, 150 and 169. Don’t forget, league average during the regular season was around 176.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET Wednesday - We are betting this game will be an old fashion Eastern Conference defensive battle from start to finish. This teams don’t like each other, and it’s elevated both teams play, especially on the defensive end of the court. The first three games of this series all stayed Under the Total and Game 4 was on pace to stay Under again but then the Celtics exploded for 69 points in the second half on 63% shooting. Al Horford for the Celtics “backpacked” his team in the second half with a career playoff high of 30-points. We can’t see the 37-year-old duplicating that type of performance. The Bucks shot just 41% in Game 4 and coach Bud for some unexplained reason played defensive minded George Hill over Bobby Portis which clearly hurt the Bucks offense. In the two games played in Boston the Bucks struggled with their shooting at 43.5% as a team, well below their season average of 46.8%. During the regular season the Bucks were a disappointing 13th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.118-points per possession, but they played a large portion of the season without Brook Lopez. In the Playoffs the Bucks have the #1 ranked DEFF allowing just .998PPP. These two teams have played slow in the postseason with the Celtics ranking 10th of all 16 playoff teams in pace, the Bucks rank 12th. These two teams both end up in the 90’s in this one!