ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10PM ET - We expect the Kings to put up points in this one and essentially force the Pelicans to score to keep up. Sacramento is 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season at 1.115-points per possession. They have been better of late at 1.203PPP in their last five games. The Kings are coming off a pair of 140+ scoring games against the Jazz and Spurs who both rate similarly to this Pels team defensively. Sacto is the 7th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.6% and should get plenty of easy looks against this Pelicans defense that allows 48.6% shooting by opponents which ranks 28th. New Orleans is 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.186PPP. They have given up 121+ points in 3 of their last four games and 118+ in 8 of their last ten overall. The Pels also rank 23rd in 2PT% against and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. On the rare occasion the Kings do miss they should get second chance opportunities with their 12th best rebound rate in the league. We are going to need points from the Pelicans also and we expect them to get 113+. The Kings are 14th in DEFF and can be exploited defensively from beyond the arc. Sacramento allows foes to hit 37.7% from Deep which ranks 27th in the NBA. New Orleans has some horrible offensive numbers, but they’ve also had significant injury issues to their leading scorers all season long. In their 3 most recent games they put up 126 against the Suns and 116 versus the Spurs and 109 against the Thunder who have the best D in the NBA. The numbers suggest that these two teams combine for 235+ in this one.

ASA NBA Play on UNDER 222.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 226.2 total points. This line is slightly lower than that despite the fact we have two elite defenses and two average offenses. Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing just 1.056 points per possession. They rank 2nd in FG% against at 43.3% and rank 5th in 3PT% allowed at 34.1%. The Warriors are 5th in DEFF allowing 1.083PPP, hold opponents to 43.8% shooting (3rd) and limit foes 3PT% at 33.4% (3rd). Offensively the Warriors are 15th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring 1.130-points per possession, the Rockets are 18th in OEFF at 1.125PPP. These two teams are top 11 in pace of play on the season, but in their 5 most recent games both teams have slowed their tempo considerably with the Warriors ranking 15th in pace, the Rockets are 24th. Both teams rely on their transition offense, but both excel in limiting fastbreak scoring, ranking 2nd and 3rd in transition points allowed. Both teams are trending down in field goal attempts in their last five games so with that trend continuing here we can’t see these two teams getting to 223 total points. Unless both shoot well above their season standards which is unlikely given the defense.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET - These two teams have one common denominator and that's that both defenses aren’t good. The Spurs allow opponents to hit 46.8% of their field goal attempts (19th) and give up 1.145-points per possession (18th). In their most recent 5 games the Spurs defense has been even worse, allowing 1.253PPP which is 2nd most in the NBA. For the season the Pelicans defense has been equally as bad as the Spurs, if not worse. New Orleans has the worst FG% defense in the league allowing 48.7% while giving up 1.186-points per possession. In their most recent 5 games the Pels are allowing an average of 121PPG. The Pelicans have below average offensive numbers but have more injured starter minutes lost than any other team in the NBA. They put up 126 against the Suns two games ago with 4/5 starters back in the lineup. Last night they scored 109 against a very good OKC defense. San Antonio is near league average or slightly below in most offensive categories. For this game to get to 226 we need ‘average’ from both teams as the league average of points scored in an NBA game is 226. With two below average defenses these teams should get to this number rather easily.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up.

ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 219 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 4th game in 6 days. Minnesota has been at home and should be rested with their last game being played on Nov 29th. This O/U opened 225.5 and has moved down significantly, which means we will step in and grab the value with an Over wager. Minnesota recently played the Kings at home and that game finished with 219 total points. The Kings are better defensively than the Lakers but worse offensively and the two teams play at the same pace. The Wolves are coming off a very low scoring game against the Clippers who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and play slow. We expect the Wolves to push the pace here against the Lakers coming off a game last night. L.A. is 7th in offensive efficiency this season at 1.162-points per possession. Minnesota is 17th in OEFF or near league average. Minnesota has gone from being the best defense in the NBA a year ago to ranking 10th in DEFF currently this season. The Lakers are near the bottom of the league in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.173PPP. The Lakers are 12-5-1 to the Over when playing without rest, the Wolves tend to play Over against other Western Conference teams. NBA games are averaging nearly 226ppg so we just need this game to be average for a winning ticket.

ASA play on UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season (hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant coach) as they allow the 4th fewest points per possession in the league. L.A. has held 6 of their last seven opponents to less than 100 points, which is unheard of in today’s NBA. Denver’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and recently gave up 145 to the Knicks which caused a meltdown with head coach Malone who publicly criticized his team’s effort. The Nuggets responded in their next game by holding the Jazz to 103 points. These two teams met earlier this season and produced 213 total points. They have not scored more than this O/U number in 5 straight meetings and 8 of their last nine. Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday and with 2-4 days rest dating back to last season they are 19-7 Under with those games staying below the number by an average of 8ppg. When these two teams play a conference opponent the Under is 102-57-2 since the start of last season. Bet Under!

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA NBA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226ppg. This O/U is set slightly lower than that and we are betting this won’t be anything close to average. Milwaukee and Miami are perceived as defensive teams, based on past editions, but that isn’t the case anymore. Miami ranks 12th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.124-points per possession, after ranking 4th last season. Milwaukee was one of the best teams defensively in the NBA just a few years ago and now rank 15th in DEFF. The Bucks are the 13th fastest paced team in the league, the Heat are 21st. Milwaukee is 15th in Offensive Efficiency, the Heat are 17th in OEFF. Milwaukee has the 5th best Effective Field Goal percentage in the NBA at 55.9%, the Heat are 20th at 52.5%. Miami has gone Over in 4 of their last five games, the Bucks are on a 4-2 Over run. This has been a very good rivalry in the East historically and 8 of the last ten meetings have gone Over the number. In the last ten games, at least one of the two teams has scored 119+ points. Both teams get into the high Teens in this one which goes Over the number rather easily.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers – 10:30 PM ET - Apparently, the NBA In-Season Tournament means a lot to the Lakers who won it last year and decided to hang a banner in their rafters. The game should have added motivation for this Jazz team that doesn’t have any other high-profile players other than Markkanen and an additional paycheck would go a long way for these younger players. Honestly, that is maybe an added bonus but doesn’t really impact our handicapping process for this game. These two teams should put up a ton of points tonight. Utah is the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA at 99.6 possessions per game. The Lakers are only a few spots below them in the rankings at 99.1 possessions per game. Neither team defends well either. The Jazz allow the most points per possession per game at 1.192, the Lakers rank 25th in DEFF allowing 1.169PPP. Los Angeles is the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA, the Jazz though rank 27th. In the three meetings between these two teams last season, one team scored 130+ and the total points scored were 260, 257 and 230. Going back even further one of the two teams involved in this clash has scored 127 or more points in seven straight. Both teams are coming off of lower scoring games but that changes tonight as this one gets to the 240’s.

ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points.

ASA play on OVER 229 Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - Even though this line has been bet up from the opener, it still hasn’t been adjusted enough. These two teams met in the first week of the season and the O/U on that game was 235. They combined for 209 total points in large part of a horrible shooting performance by the Jazz. Last year in 3 meetings these two teams produced total points of 233, 229 and 244. Utah is 29th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.185-points per possession. They have the 25th ranked FG% defense allowing opponents to make just under 485 of their attempts. Sacramento is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% and should get plenty of uncontested attempts and scores against this Jazz defense. Utah wants to play fast with the 10th rated pace at 100 possessions per game. The Kings prefer that tempt with the 12th most possessions per game in the league. The Kings have put up 126 or more points in 3 of their last four games. Utah has scored and allowed 110+ points in three straight games. The Jazz will get to 110+ and the Kings are scoring more than 120. Over is the call here.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG.

ASA play on OVER 230.5 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These are currently two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers allowing 1.178-points per possession (25th) while the Raptors allow 1.240PPP and rank last in the NBA. Both teams prefer to play fast, ranking 10th and 11th in pace of play. Knowing this game will be up-tempo with two bad defenses is enough for us to bet this Over at a marginal total that is barely higher than league average. The Lakers are 10th in Offensive Efficiency and the Raptors are 15th. Toronto has allowed 127 and 138 points in their last two games to Denver and Charlotte. The Lakers gave up 134 to the Cavs last time out and 127 to the Kings two games ago. This game should easily get into the 240’s. Bet the Over.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:40 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series a year ago which the Mavs won in 5-games so expect a little more intensity than usual for a game this early in the season. The Mavericks are coming off a game last night and will have some tired legs tonight. Last season when the Timberwolves played with rest advantage the Unders cashed at a 74% rate with 6 Overs, 17 Unders and 1 push. Dallas had a slight Under trend when playing without rest at 54% last season. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league. Minnesota was the best overall defensive team in the league last season allowing 1.084PPP. Both teams defend the 3-point line well with the Wolves holding opponents to 29.5%, 5th best, while Dallas allows 32.7%, 8th best. It is a small sample size this season but both teams are playing below league average in terms of pace of play, which obviously makes this Under that much more attractive. 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has resulted in 223 or less points. We will be this one Under!

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number.

ASA PLAY ON OVER 228.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 3:30 PM ET - Indiana will play their home opener today against the 76ers and we are betting on an Over. The Pacers were a strong Over team at home a year ago with a 30-19 record. They went Over the number by an average of +2.9ppg. Philadelphia had a slight lean towards the Over on the road last season at 24-20. The Pacers are coming off a poor offensive game against the Knicks, who are a top tier defensive team. Indiana was the second most efficient offensive team last season at 1.205-points per possession, behind only the Celtics. Philly was middle of the pack in OEFF at 1.162PPP while scoring 114.6ppg. The home team in this matchup is going to dictate the tempo and the Pacers want to play fast. Indiana was 2nd in pace of play last season at 102.16 possessions. Granted, the 76ers were slower paced a year ago but Philly tends to play at a slower pace with Embiid in the lineup, who is out here. Without a rim protector in the lineup for the Sixers, the Pacers should get plenty of easy opportunities in the paint. Indiana ranked 1st in the league a year ago in that stat category at 56.6ppg. Last year in three meetings between these two teams they produced total points of 256, 258 and 263. Easy Over call. 

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 235 Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Looking back at last season’s meetings between these two teams we see the O/U’s set were 235.5, 247.5, 247.5 and 246. Three of the four games went Over the total with the four games averaging 243PPG. Neither team will play any defense here as the Pistons ranked 26th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.190-points per possession. Indiana wasn’t much better, ranking 24th in DEFF allowing 1.181PPP. Detroit averaged less than 1.000 points per possession a year ago but scored points with a higher volume of field goal attempts and a faster pace of play. Detroit was 8th in pace and preferred to play with tempo. That’s not a good recipe against the Pacers who were 2nd in pace, scored 123.3PPG with the second-best Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.211PPP. Detroit should be more efficient offensively with the offseason acquisitions of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley. We like this game OVER the total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 223.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession, the Knicks ranked 11th at 1.104PP allowed. The other key factor here is pace of play. The Knicks were the slowest paced team in the league last season at 95.2 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Celtics were also slower paced at 97.1 possessions per game which ranked 7th slowest. If the preseason is any indication of what New York plans to do this season we can expect great defense tonight. The Knicks held 4 of five opponents to 110 or less points in the preseason. The Celtics also showed their defensive prowess in the exhibition season allowing 111 or less in 4 of five games. With the Celtics coming off a Championship they may be slow to start tonight. The Knicks have several new pieces and it could take time for the starters to jell. In this opening night game we like UNDER the total.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

ASA top play on UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - If Dallas was going to win a game it was the last one, but we still can’t get involved with a side here and are conflicted on betting either Boston or Dallas. We do like the Under though as these two teams have produced total points of 205, 203 and 196 in the first 3 games of the series. Neither team has gotten to 108 points themselves and Dallas has been held to under 100-points in all three games. Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the series by limiting the Mavs to 44.4% shooting overall and 28.2% from Deep. Those numbers are well below the Mavs season standards of 47.8% and 36.8%. The Under is 7-2-1 the last 10 meetings between these two teams and we expect another low scoring game here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly were wrong on our last Total bet on this series as they Over never came close, but one critical aspect of that game has us on the Under here. Both teams made a conscious effort to play at a very slow pace as they combined for only 155 field goal attempts. To put that into perspective, the league average was 177 during the regular season. Minnesota had a great shooting performance at 53%, the Mavs were well below expectations at 42%. We are betting these two teams slow the tempo in this elimination game and when they shoot near their series averages of 48.8% (Mavericks) and 46.5% (Wolves) this game easily stays Under. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for 176 and 169 field goal attempts and totaled 213 and 217 points. We like a low scoring game here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Over has cashed in all three games of this series, and even though the O/U number has been adjusted up 3 full points, we will still play Over. Dallas is getting up 80 field goal attempts per game in this series, which is lower than their season average of 88.6, but they are making 51% of those attempts and are averaging 111PPG. Minnesota is attempting 86.3 field goals per game in the 3-game series, making 44.8% and scoring 106.7PPG. In this series, the Mavs offensive Net rating is 118.5, the Wolves have an ONR of 114.3, both are considerably higher than their season averages. These two teams rank 4th and 5th in EFG% in the Playoffs at 54.3% and Dallas in particular is making a high percentage of their 3’s at 38.1% in this series alone. The Wolves have had their ups and downs from beyond the Arc but are still hitting 35.5% from Deep against the Mavs. O/U’s in this price range in Conference Finals have gone over at a 74% rate and we expect both teams to get to at least 105 here.

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. The third game in Indianapolis crept Over the number late with 225 total points. That game had a fairly low possession rate with 83 field goal attempts for Boston and 91 for Indiana. The Pacers got two huge unexpected scoring efforts from Nembhard and McConnell who scored 32 and 23 points respectively. Those two players average under 11PPG on the season so it’s highly unlikely they will get those types of numbers against a Boston defense that will adjust. What’s surprising in this series is that the Pacers have shot 51% or better in all 3 games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here. We doubt the role players for the Pacers can duplicate the scoring output in Game 4 as they did in Game 3 and if Haliburton can’t go again, Indiana will have their offensive struggles. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. With the two Overs cashing rather easily we are seeing a lower number in this game of 222.5, which has been bet down despite more tickets and general public betting the Over? Boston has shot well in both games which is to be expected considering they are one of the best offenses in the league and Indiana’s defense is suspect. What’s surprising is that the Pacers have shot 52% or better in both games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here.

ASA play on UNDER 207.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, Game 2 8:30PM ET - This first game of the series went Over the number with 213 total points being scored between the two teams. The two teams had insanely good shooting first halves and put up 121 points by the break, then regressed to 92-points in the second half. Minnesota made 11 of 25 3-pointers or 44% in the first half, then made just 7/24 in the 2nd half for 29%. Dallas shot 56% overall in the first half and 73% inside the arc in scoring 59-points. The Mavs ended the game at 49.4% overall and 24% from Deep. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. Minnesota is playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. This has been an Under series with 7 of the last ten meeting flying below the Total.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

ASA NBA play on OVER 224.5 Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - The first game of this series was Over the number at the end of regulation with 234 total points. Boston put up 94-points through 3Q’s and looked they were on their way to scoring 124 themselves before a poor shooting, turnover filled 4Q. Indiana shot extremely well in Game 1 and found a way to exploit the Celtics defense by putting Al Horford in the pick-n-roll repeatedly. The Pacers put up over 119PPG on the road this season, the Celtics averaged 119.4PPG at home. These two teams were the two most efficienct teams in the league in the regular season with both averaging over 1.210-points per possession. That means this doesn’t have to be a high possession game to cash an Over as both make shots and typically don’t turn it over at a high volume. Indiana is on a 14-5 Over streak. Boston has gone over in 13 of their last 19 against the Pacers and 5-2 Over their last seven games overall.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 206.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We are in the minority on the Under here, but we don’t see these two teams getting to 200+ points. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. They faced the Suns and Nuggets in the playoffs who were both top 9 in offensive efficiency ratings this season and still allowed just 1.095PPP. Minnesota was locked in defensively against the Nuggets in 4 of the seven games in that series, holding Denver to 99 or less points. In three of those games, they limited the Nuggets to 90 or less points. Minnesota is also playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. Dallas is coming off two series against the Clippers and Thunder who both ranked top 4 during the regular season in offensive efficiency. Minnesota was 16th in OEFF during the regular season. Game 1’s of the Conference Finals that have this low of a posted total have stayed Under in 4 of the last five. We like UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 3:30 PM ET - The value in this number is obvious as the last time these two teams met on this floor the O/U was set at 217.5. We are literally 10-full points lower now and will have to step in with an Over wager. One of these two teams has scored 116 or more points in every game of this series. We have had four games where one of the two put up 120 or more points. Even with one of the two getting blown out in a game they have still combined to score more than this O/U number in every game. They are attempting 173.5 field goals per game which is high by playoff standards. In fact, in the regular season the average FGA’s per game was slightly higher than 177 and those games averaged over 228 total points per game. New York is averaging nearly 112PPG in this series, the Pacers are averaging 112.8PPG. Both teams are shooting well with the Pacers making 51.5% of their shots overall, 40.9% from beyond the arc. New York is hitting 46.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.2% from Deep. Historically, Game 7’s are Under bets but this number has been over-adjusted and we like the value with an Over play.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets ML +115 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - When will the NBA be forced by legal sports betting to start disclosing injury news sooner? In Game 4 it was obviously a shock to everyone when Mike Conley didn’t play for the Wolves. His absence was key in the Wolves loss and it showed in the 2nd quarter when Minnesota turned it over 9 times. The Nuggets have made some great adjustments since the first two games and employed a double-team defensive scheme in Game 4 on Anthony Edwards. Denver simply told the Wolves that someone other than ANT needed to beat them and nobody on the T’Wolves roster responded. Consider this, the Nuggets had an offensive Net rating in the regular season of 119.1 which was 4th best in the league. The Wolves had one of the best defensive Net ratings at 109.9. In the last three games the Nuggets offensive Net rating is 121.4. Overshadowed by the Jokic/Nuggets offense has been solid defensive play that has held the Wolves to 90, 107 and 97 points in the past three games and has a defensive Net rating of 95.7. Anthony Edwards is incredible but even he can’t carry the entire scoring load for the Wolves and Karl Anthony Towns just doesn’t show up in big moments. It’s really hard to beat a team 4 times in a row but we expect Denver to end the series tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA play on 10* OVER 215 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The first two games of this series played in New York finished with 238 and 251 total points. In Game 3 in Indiana, they combined for 217 total points and in Game 4 they produced just 210 total points. One of the two teams has scored 120+ in three of the four playoff games thus far in the series. In their last ten meetings they have gone Over this number 8 of ten times. In the postseason the Knicks have a defensive net rating of 119.8 which is 15 out of sixteen teams. The Pacers have a DNR of 117.1 which is 12th worst. Offensively though the Pacers have the best net rating at 121.2, the Knicks are 4th of all playoff teams at 117.1. The loss of Anunoby for the Knicks is a huge hit for them defensively and the Pacers have exploited that loss with an EFG% of 59.1% in this series. The Pacers defense has been bad all season long (finished the regular season 24th in defensive efficiency) and the Knicks have knocked down shots against them to the tune of 54.6% EFG%. The Pacers are going to continue to play fast and now have confidence after two home wins to even the series. The Knicks will get a big lift from the home crowd and should rebound off that horrible Game 4 showing. The bet here is OVER the total.

ASA top play on UNDER 215 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 pm ET - The Mavs' Luka Doncic has ‘struggled’ to score in this series with 19, 29 and 22 points in the three game set. That’s significantly lower than his 33.15PPG season average. Luka is banged up right now with several nagging injuries and he’s the ball dominant guard so he has slowed the Mavs pace of play. Dallas has gotten unexpected scoring from PJ Washington who has scored 29 and 27 points in the last two games but we don’t feel that can continue considering he averages 13PPG on the season. Even Kyrie has been quiet by his scoring standards with 20, 9 and 22 points in the 3 games vs. OKC. Dallas averaged 116.8PPG on the season but in this series against OKC they are scoring just 106PPG. The Thunder are having scoring issues of their own as they are scoring 109PPG against the Mavs after averaging 120PPG during the regular season. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is doing his thing for OKC, averaging over 30PPG against the Mavs, but his supporting cast has not risen to the occasion. The Thunder had a regular season EFG% of 57.3% but against this Dallas defense that number has dipped to 53.5%. The pace of play for both teams has dropped significantly in this series as well with both teams averaging 4 less possessions per game compared to their regular season average. We have gotten total points scored of 212 or less in two of the three games and expect that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers – Game 4 Sunday - The Knicks short rotation is starting to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. In Game 3 the Knicks only managed 16 points in the 4th quarter and 106 for the game. If it weren’t for an unbelievable 3-point shooting night the Knicks certainly don’t reach 100-points. New York was 52% from beyond the arc in Game 3, making 14 of 27 3-pointers. NY shoots 37.2% on the season which is barely above average. The Pacers 3PT% defense is 16th in the NBA allowing 36.7%. Indiana had an average game by their standards with a 47% shooting game and hit 38% from Deep. For the game though these two teams combined for 169 FG attempts which is below the league standard of 177. Both teams pace of play numbers have dropped significantly in the playoffs compared to their regular season tempo. There are several key players for both teams that are not 100% including Haliburton and Nesmith for the Pacers and Brunson continues to play through a sore foot. Any way we slice it we don’t see these two teams combining for more than 215 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly just missed our Over bet on the last game by a ½ point, but in this critical Game 3 we like the Under. In Game 2 we had a few uncharacteristic statistics as the Cavs shot 55% overall and made 13 of 28 3-pointers for 46%. The Cavs shot 47.6% on the season and 36.2% from Deep which were around league average. Not only that but Boston’s defense is one of the best in the league holding opponents to 45.3% (2nd) overall FG% and 35.5% (3rd) from Deep. Granted, we don’t expect the Celtics to shoot just 41% overall and 23% from Downtown as they were the 8th best shooting team on the season and 2nd in 3PT%. The Celtics were the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the league, the Cavs were 6th best. In Game 2 we had just 166 total possessions which is 10 less than the NBA average during the regular season. In the only other meeting between these two teams on this court this season they produced only 209 points during the regular season and that was with the officials calling every touch foul. The officiating has obviously changed in the playoffs as they are letting teams play. Every home game for the Cavs in the postseason has finished with 207 or less points. Boston went to Miami for two games and gave up 84 and 88 points in each game. Both defenses show up in this one and neither team gets into the 100’s.

ASA top play on OVER 217 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We have gotten 212 and 229 total points in the two games of this series thus far. In Game 1, the two teams combined for 173 field goal attempts, so the pace of play was higher than league standards, yet the game stayed Under. The reason for only 212 total points was the fact that the Mavs shot just 39%, well below their season average of 47.9%. OKC also shot (45%) slightly below their season average of 49.7%. In Game 2 we got another up-tempo pace of play with 179 field goal attempts and both teams shot much better than the opener with each hitting 47% from the field. We are predicting Game 3 to be very similar in terms of tempo of the first two games and expect both to shoot above that 45% range. The Mavs rim protector Gafford is not 100% which is a major factor as OKC is 5th in the league in fast break points per game and 7th in points in the paint. Dallas had a strong Under record at home this season but game played on this court averaged over 230 total points per game. OKC strongly favored the Over on the road this season and games involving the Thunder as the visitor also averaged over 230PPG. The two regular season meetings between these two teams on this floor finished with 346 and 257 total points. This game gets into the 220’s rather easily.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We expect another higher scoring game on Thursday when these two teams square off in Boston in Game 2. The series opener finished with 215 total points which crept Over the total set of 211. We like the fact that the Cavs had 90 field goal attempts in Game 1, the Celtics attempted 92 for a total of 182. That is higher than the regular season average of the entire NBA this season. Cleveland had a horrendous shooting performance in Game 1 of 41% overall and made just 11 of 42 3-point attempts (26%). You can expect a better shooting night in Game 2 as this Cavs team was 12th in the NBA in FG% at 47.6% and shot 36.1% from Deep. Boston had an ‘average’ shooting night by their standards as they hit 49% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc. The Celtics shoot 48.6% on the season and 38.8 from the 3-point line. The three games between these two teams played on this court this season have finished with 233, 223 and 215 total points. We will bet Over here.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks Game 2 – 8 PM ET - We were on the Over in Game 1 and will come right back with the same bet here. In the opener of this series the Pacers forced the tempo and pushed the ball on every occasion. It looks to me like Pacer coach Carlisle is willing to sacrifice the first two games of the series and wear the Knicks out who don’t have a deep rotation. They then can maybe win both home games and even the series at 2-2, then let the chips fall where they may. The longer the series goes, the better for a much deeper Pacers team. Both teams shot exceptionally well in Game 1 with the Knicks hitting 54% overall, the Pacers hit 52%. The Knicks were willing to run in the second half with Indiana and we are betting that pace continues in Game 2. During the regular season the Pacers averaged 123.3PPG, the Knicks put up 112.8PPG. Defensively the Knicks were much better ranking 9th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP, the Pacers were 24th allowing 1.181PPP and 120.2PPG. The Pacers defense was bad in the first round against a Bucks team that was missing their two best scorers in Giannis for all 6 games and Lillard for 2 games. Indiana gave up 118, 113 and 115 in three games but were also able to score 120+ in four of the six games. New York was able to put up 108PPG against a 76ers team that was 11th in DEFF this season and shot 44% for the series 37% from beyond the Arc. In the 3 regular season meetings the Totals set on the games was 237.5, 235.5 and 248. Granted the Playoffs have been much lower scoring but that’s essentially 14.5-points in value with an Over bet here. The three reg season meetings finished with 236, 214 and 266 total points. The Knicks are on a 16-3 Over streak their last eighteen games, Indiana is on a 9-2 Over run themselves. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -155 vs. Orlando Magic, 1 PM ET - This series is tied 3-3 with the home team winning 4 times by double-digits and covering every game but one. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points, then won by 1-point which was really four, but the Magic hit a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. The Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 23-13 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 16-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG. Donovan Mitchell is one of a handful of NBA players to score 50+ points three times in the NBA playoffs and he’s more that capable of carrying this team to a victory. The Magic have a legitimate scorer in Banchero but he’s young and not quite ready for this huge playoff road moment.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - Help me understand this O/U number. The first game of the series had a Total set of 230, Game 2 & 3 dropped to 223 and Game 4 was 215. After a low scoring game in the opener these two teams have produced 233, 239 (OT) and 239 total points and yet the O/U hasn’t gone up for this game? In the most recent game between these two teams the Bucks were without their two leading scorers, Giannis and Lillard. Then key reserve Bobby Portis gets ejected early in the game. Some how the Bucks still managed to score 113 points on 51% shooting. The Pacers couldn’t miss in the last game as they shot 52% overall and 51% from Deep by making 22 of 43 3-pointers. Myles Turner was especially hot for the Pacers, making 7 of 9 3-pointers which is well above his season 3PT% of 35%. We expect a regression in the Pacers shooting and also expect the Bucks to struggle to score without several key offensive ingredients. The series is starting to get heated as these two teams don’t like each other so expect both defenses to play at a high level here. This is certainly a contrarian bet as the O/U number looks too good to be true!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

ASA play on OVER 216.5 LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - In the 4 games of this series these two teams have combined for 217 or more points three times. They have totaled 217 or more points in 8 of the last nine meetings. The Lakers have the 2nd best team FG percentage in the NBA at 49.8% and 8th best 3PT% at 37.3%. Denver is the 4th best shooting team in the league at 49.4% and rank 10th in 3PT% at 36.9%. Of the 16 teams left in the Playoffs, these two teams are 8th and 9th in Offensive Net Rating and Defensive Net Rating. They are also the two fastest paced teams in the Playoffs with each averaging 97 possessions per game. The Lakers are shooting 49% in this series, the Nuggets are hitting 46%. The Lakers finally got the gorilla off their backs with a win in the last game which snapped an 11-game losing streak to Denver. That ensures the Nuggets full attention in this game and focused effort here to eliminate the Lakers and move on to the next round. The Lakers on the other hand should be in full desperation mode and pull out all stops to steal a victory. Denver home games this season averaged over 227 total points per game. The Lakers game on the road averaged over 237 total PPG. We expect a higher scoring game here. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - We are simply betting the number here and have to take the value with an OVER wager in this Game 3. Everyone knows how the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with 10-straight wins but so far in this series the (gulp) Lakers have been the better overall team. While we are not getting involved in the Side of this game, we will jump in on the Total. The first two games in this series had O/U’s of 226.5 and 223. Granted, they combined for 217 and 200 total points but that will change in Game 3. The two regular season games in Los Angeles had O/U’s posted of 231.5 and 233 and the two teams combined for 238 and 220. In fact, in the last ten meetings between these two teams they have combined to score more than tonight Total eight times. The Lakers will set the tempo tonight and they prefer to play fast at home with the 3rd fastest pace of play on their home court during the regular season. We also know the Lakers will get some ‘home cooking’ from the officials and will score plenty of points from the free throw line with a stopped clock. The Lakers are 20-15-1 Over when coming off a loss this season, 29-25-1 Over against other Western Conference teams. Denver has some strong Under support on the road this season but those O/U numbers were set significantly higher during the regular season. The Nuggets road games averaged 220PPG on the year which is clearly enough to grab the cash in this one.

ASA play on Orlando Magic -1.5 -115 or Pick -125 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - Home teams have dominated thus far in the playoffs (as expected they are the lower seed) and we expect that trend to carry over in this 4/5 series. The Magic were 18-23 SU away from home this season with an average +/- of -3.6PPG. They had an efficiency differential of minus -3.6 on the road. At home the Magic were a completely different team with a 29-12 SU record and the 5th best average point differential of +7.8PPG. We played against Orlando in the first two games of this series and expected them to struggle offensively. They shot just 33% and 36% in Games 1 and 2. We should see a positive regression here as they shoot 47.5% on the season and 48.7% at home. Cleveland did have a winning record on the road this season of 22-19 SU with a positive differential of +1.1PPG. They have lost 8 of their last ten on the road though and now face a desperate Orlando team who is fantastic on their home court. We like Orlando to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This number opened at 239.5 and has been steadily bet down so we will step in now with the value-bet on the Over. Let’s start with the fact that these are the two worst defenses of all the Playoff teams. The Bucks rank 19th on the season in defensive efficiency allowing 1.159-points per possession. The Pacers are worse yet ranking 24th allowing 1.211PPP and over 120PPG. Things haven’t gotten any better since the All-Star break either as the Bucks have the 17th defensive Net rating, the Pacers are 18th. We also know both teams want to play fast and get out in transition. The Pacers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA, the Bucks are 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Pacers ranked 2nd in the NBA and scored 123.3PPG. Milwaukee was 6th in OEFF and put up 119PPG. We are confident we are going to get a big game from Dame Lillard or Khris Middleton or Bobby Portis. The season series between these two teams was very high scoring with total points scored of 272, 235, 266, 247 and 260. Bet OVER here!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER.