PLAY ON: Atlanta Hawks +11.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET - Yeah, I know it's hard to bet 'ugly' teams like the Hawks but the value here is clearly on their side. OKC is being asked by the oddsmakers to cover a hefty number here, especially considering they haven't been a double-digit chalk since mid-November. The Thunder also have two much bigger games on deck at Utah and then a Christmas Day showdown with the Rockets, so they may get caught looking past the lowly Hawks. OKC has the 7th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.3PPG but that's not enough to get a cover here. Atlanta is just 2-11 SU their last 13 road games but NONE of those losses have been by more than tonight's point spread. In fact, only 2 of the Hawks road losses have come by 12 or more points all season long. On the season the Hawks road differential is -5.8PPG, less than tonight's number. In their last five games these teams are nearly identical in terms of offensive efficiency ratings so Atlanta can score with the Thunder. Grab the points with Atlanta!

ASA PLAY  ON: #714 CHICAGO BULLS (-5) over Orlando Magic, 8PM ET - We could make a case that nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Bulls right now and there aren't many teams playing worse than the Magic. Chicago has ripped off 6 straight wins which included victories over the 26-7 Celtics, 76ers and East contenders Milwaukee Bucks.  Chicago's average point differential in their last five games is +7.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. During that same 5-game stretch the Bulls have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating and the 11th best OEFF. Both of those numbers are DRASTICALLY better than their season averages which is what the point spread is based on. Conversely, the Orlando Magic are really struggling after a pretty good start. Orlando has lost 5 straight games and in those contests their average point differential was -8.6PPG which is 29th worst in the NBA. The Magic are just 1-10 SU their last eleven road games and their road point differential of -3.4PPG on the season is in the bottom half of the league. It looks like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will be out for the Magic tonight which is just too much to overcome against the red hot Bulls. Lay the points. 

PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 218 Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams want to play fast and that makes for a very high scoring game. Orlando is the 6th fastest paced team in the league while the Hornets are 10th. Last season the Hornets were 19th fastest paced team but have made a concentrated effort to increase offensive possessions this year. Orlando is a top 10 scoring team this season at 108PPG and have topped 100 points in 19 of their 24 games this season.  Charlotte has scored 100 plus points in 14 of their 21 games this season. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency rankings with the Hornets at 17th and the Magic 27th. Orlando played last night which helps our thought process here as their games after playing the previous night have averaged 224 total points per game. These two foes met earlier this season and combined to 233 total points which pushed their OVER record to 6-3 the last nine meetings. The bet here is OVER.

We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team.  We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. 

Play OVER in the Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves game, 8PM ET. - The average points scored in an NBA game this year is 211. The total on this game is set slightly higher than that but both teams averages suggest a higher scoring game. Both teams are right around the league average in pace of play with 97.5 possessions per game. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings the Wizards rank 7th at 1.097 points per possession. Minnesota is slightly better at the 5th spot at 1.103PPP. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Wiz are slightly better than average while the Wolves are far worse with the 4th worst DEFF team in the league. Last year when these two teams faced off they produced total points of 223 and 217, both overs. When both teams are playing with rest they tend to score more too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this will be an 'average' NBA scoring game but the key stats suggest otherwise. PLAY OVER!

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points!

We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. 

ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston.  Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. 

We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers.  Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. 

We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. 

ASA PLAY UNDER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET. The oddsmakers are projecting these two teams to score more than the league average of 211.4PPG but the metrics say differently. In fact, our computer analytics suggest 209.6 points in this contest. OKC is below average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings at 1.053 points per possession while the Nuggets are the league average at 1.072PPP. On the defensive side of the ball the Thunder are the second best defensive efficiency team in the league allowing jus t .992PPP. The Nuggets give up 1.067PPP which is slightly worse than the league average of 1.057PPP. The Thunder allow the least amount of points in the paint this season while the Nuggets are 11th. Meaning, no easy buckets for opponents. Neither team plays especially fast so it's not like we have to worry about a track meet here either. Denver is coming off two of the leagues fastest paced teams in the league in Golden State and Brooklyn and the results of those games have driven this Total higher than it should be. OKC and their opponents have combined to score more than 217 just two times this season. Nuggets on 7-2 home under run, OKC under 4 straight road games. 

PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami.

PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The  two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST.

ASA PLAY UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET - Wait what, you're playing Under in a game with a team (Phoenix) that allows 125PPG? Yes, the Suns are the worst defensive efficiency team in the NBA and are giving up 1.184 points per possession  BUT they've also played the 7th, 8th and 9th highest scoring teams in the NBA this season. Now they face a Jazz team averaging just 95.8PPG which is the second lowest number in the league. Phoenix made a coaching change and it looks like new head coach Jay Triano is holding his young players to a much higher standard. The Suns were trying to play as fast as they possible could and in the process they were playing sloppy, bad basketball. In their first two games they attempted 89 and 92 field goal attempts but in their most recent game they attempted just 77 field goals. Utah is the SLOWEST paced team in the NBA in terms of pace of play and a top 10 team in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just 1.022 points per possession. The Under has cashed in 18 of the last 26 meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Phoenix which have averaged just 189.2PPG. Bet UNDER! 

Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston.

We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. 

We will play UNDER 228.5 in the Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Friday. Looking closely at Game 3 we see some indicators that suggest a lower scoring game even though that game went over the number. Combined in Game 3 the two teams attempted 173 field goals which is just 3 more than the league average of 170. The regular season average for total points scored in games was 211. Granted, these two teams make a lot of 3's which alters the baseline statistics but even with 28 made 3-pointers in the last game it still barely when over the number. The  oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their number even higher for Game 4 which gives us more value with an UNDER wager. The Warrior games away from home this full season averaged 219PPG while the Cavalier home games averaged 218PPG. The math says under along with value. 

We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game.  Cleveland has been  the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. 

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. 

You've already read everything possible on this series and have likely formed your own opinion on the series but we'll focus on Game 1 and the Total here. We will play OVER the Total here. At first glance the number on this game seems high but in reality it's not based on the regular season meeting here which had a Total of 227.5. That game was a blowout for the Warriors 126-91 which obviously stayed below the number. Golden State is coming off a series with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA, San Antonio, in which they scored 113, 136, 120 and 129 points. They scored 115 or more points in two of four games against Utah who was 3rd in the NBA in DEFF. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.104 points per possession. The Cavs have also put up some monster numbers offensively in the post season, including an offensive efficiency rating of 122.6 which is #1 in the playoffs. The Cavs have put up 106 or more points in every post season game and scored 130 plus in two of their last four games. Golden State is playing faster in the post-season than they did in the regular season. Cleveland is playing slightly slower in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, but again, because of their efficiency ratings they are scoring 5+ points per game more. These two teams are going to score points here and it will be enough to top the Total set on Game 1. 

We have been a steady OVER player in the playoffs and it’s paid off handsomely thus far, but tonight the numbers dictate an UNDER wager on this game. It was painfully evident the Celtics want to slow the tempo as much as possible as they feel it’s the best way to beat Cleveland. It obviously worked for most of three quarters before Kyrie went insane and lifted the Cavs to a win. These two teams combined attempted just 153 field goal attempts which is WAY below the league average of 170. Cleveland shot a ridiculous 59.5% (again due to Kyrie going 15 of 22) which helped them get to 112 points. It’s unlikely that is going to happen again based on Cleveland’s season shooting percentage of 47.4%, and Boston’s FG% defense that allowed 45.3% on the year. In Boston’s case, we would expect similar numbers as Game 4 as they shot just below their season averages, but again are without their leading scorer in Isaiah Thomas. The tempo is the key here and it looks like Boston has committed to slowing the pace as much as possible. The UNDER is now 7-1 the last eight meetings between these two teams in Beantown. We’re betting UNDER!

ASA OVER 215 Boston @ Cleveland, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 4 Tuesday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 then the number dropped to 214 for Game 3 with the news that Isaiah Thomas was out for Boston. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs, are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their eleven playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER easily. In Game #3 the Cavs scored 108 points but only took 70 shots to get there and LeBron James had an abnormally low scoring game of just 11-points. Clearly James is going to put up points here as he's averaging over 32PPG in the post season. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Our Math Model projects 220 total points being scored here.  

We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 3 Sunday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 but this number has dropped to the 214 range as of this posting. The drop is due to the Celtics Isaiah Thomas being out for the playoffs with a hip injury. Granted, Thomas is Boston’s leading scorer but in this game, we feel if the Celtics can get to 100 to 105 points this game goes over. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. On the other bench is the Cleveland Cavaliers who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs. The Cavs are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their ten playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Boston is on a 7-2 OVER streak when coming off a loss while Cleveland is 11-4 OVER their last fifteen off a win. The wager to make here is OVER!

UNDER 214 in the Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Saturday, 9PM ET. You’re not going to like this bet but it’s the right one to make. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession.  Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%.  In the opener, these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average and should have produced less than 211 (league average) total points but didn’t. In Game 2 these same two teams combined for 189 FG attempts but it was a blowout from the start and the Warriors shot it at a ridiculous rate. Golden State was 50 of 89 from the field overall or 56.2% and made 18 of 37 3’s, both numbers substantially higher than their season averages. The Spurs 100 FG attempts were largely attributed to the fact they were getting blown out early and had to play catch up. When these two teams have met in San Antonio in the past the UNDER has cashed 6 of the last seven meetings. Plug your nose and bet under!

Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. 

We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here.

 We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. 

We will play UNDER 210 in the San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Tuesday, 9PM ET. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. In Game 1 the Spurs jumped all over the Warriors and seemed to be cruising to an easy victory. Then Kawhi Leonard was injured and it looked like the Alamo all over again for San Antonio.  In Game 1 the Spurs had put up 76 points in 28 minutes with Leonard in the game. After he was hurt the Spurs offense really struggled and they managed just 35 points in 20 minutes without him. And let's not forget they don't have Tony Parker here either. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession.  Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%.  In the opener these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average. San Antonio knows that to have any chance at winning this game they HAVE to slow the tempo and might try to play 'Big Ball' with Gasol and Aldridge on the floor at the same time. The two most recent regular season meetings between these two powerhouses ended with 208 and 192 total points which would obviously cash tonight. Bet UNDER here!

OVER 211 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 7 Monday 8PM ET. We hit our last OVER bet in this series in Game 5 and will come right back with the same wager here. These two teams want to play fast and push the tempo on every possession. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th during the regular season. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs, Boston has been even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP while Washington is slightly less at 1.108PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.091PPP which would rank them 18th in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set right around league average. The first two games of the series in Boston these two teams finished with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. In Game 5 these two teams totaled 224 total points which could have been higher had it been a closer game throughout. Washington's defense is atrocious on the road all season long and there is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement tonight. Boston has shot over 51% in the three home games of this rivalry and should 'get buckets' again tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG.  They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points.  Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1.  The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State.  Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points.  We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today.  This line may seem high but is it?  Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6.  Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points.  Lay in in Sunday with Golden State.

Play OVER 216 in the Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards, Game 6 Friday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is great for OVER bettors and we don’t see these two teams slowing down tonight. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will play fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Four of the five games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points and the most recent meeting had 178 FG attempts (league average 170) which resulted in 224 total points. Of course, Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and for him to be most effective the Celtics have to play faster and with space so he can penetrate to score. In other words, Boston will not change their game strategy on the road even though Washington’s best asset offensively is playing fast too. Washington’s John Wall has had a fantastic playoff thus far and he’ll dictate a faster pace for the Wiz at home tonight in this elimination game. 

Play OVER 213.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8:35PM ET Thursday – Houston is going to dictate tempo here at home and force the Spurs into a faster paced game. Houston was the second fastest paced team in the league at home which resulted in an average of 117PPG, also 2nd highest in the NBA. The Spurs preferred to play slow on the road but because they are so efficient (4th best on the road) they still managed to average 105PPG away from home. In three of the five games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 6. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3, 184 in Game 4 and 189 in Game 5 (granted OT). All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast-paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 5 of the last six meetings. BET OVER!

Play OVER 215 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 5 Wednesday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is fine with us as we'll take advantage with an OVER wager here. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Three of the four games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points with the first two games of the series in Boston finishing with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and scored 33 and 53 in the two games of this series in Boston. In the two games in Washington he managed just 13 and 19 points respectively. He'll get back on track here and help Boston put up points in Game 5. Washington and John Wall are going to get there share too. Easy call with OVER THE TOTAL!

Play OVER Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We are going contrarian here and not ‘zagging’ when most bettors will probably side with the UNDER here, but not us. In three of the four games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 5. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3 and 184 in Game 4. All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 6 of the last eight meetings between these two teams on this court. BET OVER!

We play OVER 206 in the Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz, 8PM ET Monday. Game 2 of this series went over rather easily and we predict a similar flow and output in Game 4 tonight. The results of Game 3 has provided us with value here on an over wager as these two teams produced just 193 points in the last meeting. They attempted 161 shots which is lower than the league average of 170 but let's not forget this number is essentially 3 baskets lower than the league average for total points scored per game (211). In Game 3 we had two abnormally bad shooting nights for both Steph Curry (6 of 20) and Klay Thompson (1 of 9) which clearly helped that game from being higher scoring. Those two combined were just 3 of 14 from beyond the arc which is unheard of. As a team the Warriors shot just 44% which is below their season average of 47.8% that they shoot on the road this year. The Warriors made just 9 of their 30 (30%) 3-point attempts too which is also lower than their season average of 35.8% away from home.  As far as the Jazz are concerned they also had a poor shooting night as they were just 30 of 77 from the field or 39% which is DRASTICALLY lower than their season average of 46.8% at home.  They also shot 31.8% from 3 which is lower than the 38.4% they shot all year long on their home court. This series has a strong under trend but we'll play contrarian and bet OVER here!

**ASA NBA PICKS OVERALL 18-7 RUN, 11-4 L14 AND CURRENT 10-2 O/U STREAK! Get a long term package today and SAVE!**

UNDER 212 in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors game, 3:30Pm ET. The pace of play numbers has dropped in every game of this series and we expect that trend to continue. In the opener, these two teams finished with 174 field goal attempts, Game 2 was 165 and then 163 in Game 3. Remember, the league average for FG attempts in a game is 170 and the league average for points scored per game in the regular season was 211. In other words, this game has a ‘average’ point total (212) but the teams have played slower than league average in two of the three games. The main reason two of the three games have gone over the total is due to the Cavs shooting success as they hit over 54 percent overall and from beyond the arc. What’s surprising about that is the fact the Raptors had the 8th best FG% defense in the NBA this year and were 11th in defensive efficiency ratings. Also, the Cavs have shot dramatically better in the last two games of this series than their overall season averages and we can’t expect that success to continue. When these two have squared off recently in Toronto they have totaled less than today’s number in 4 of the last five meetings. Bet UNDER here. 

ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it!

Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. 

ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers.  In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout!

ASA play on UNDER 218 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - There are several indicators here that tells us to bet the 'under' and we'll trust the process. For those of you that have followed us for any amount of time you know we are 'law of averages' guys and focus on the 'norm' not the moment. In Game #1 of this series the Wizards shot over 50% overall and made 10 of 23 3's for 43.5%. Those numbers are WELL above their season averages of 47.4% and 36.9%. The same can be said for Boston. The Celtics shot over 51% overall from the field in Game #1 and made 19 of 39 3-pointers for 48.7%. Boston was 16th in the NBA in overall FG% by shooting 45.5% for the year. From beyond the arc, the C's shot just 35.9% which was 14th in the league and they averaged 12 made 3's per game. Another indicator that the first game of this series was abnormally high scoring was their pace of play. Combined they attempted 177 field goals which is only 7 more than the league average. When we put the numbers through our Math Model it suggests the total on this game should be 214, which was what Game #1 opened at, and is where this number should be set. With the vast majority of the public betting 'over' right now we'll be contrarian and bet UNDER!

ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points  and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points.  When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 216 - Washington @ Boston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These were two of the top 8 scoring offenses this season with Boston ranking 8th and Washington 5th.  The Wiz averaged 107 PPG in their opening round series vs Atlanta yet only shot 45% from the field and 31% from deep in those 6 games.  Those numbers are far below their regular season averages of 47.5% and 37% so the fact is, despite scoring at a high rate, they didn’t shoot the ball all that well.  On the defensive end they allowed a Hawks team that averaged 103 PPG during the regular season to average 106 PPG in the series.  Atlanta didn’t shoot the ball well either hitting 45% overall and only 30% from beyond the arc.  So neither team shot very well for the series yet they still averaged 213 PPG.  Boston’s offense was definitely off kilter their first 2 games, both losses, vs Chicago.  However, once they settled in, the Celts put up 104 or more in each of their last 4 games vs the Bulls.  Chicago’s offense was putrid in those 4 games but let’s not forget the Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA this season in scoring and shooting percentage.  Boston will not be able to slow down the Wizards nearly as easily as they did the Bulls.  These two met four times this season and the oddsmakers set 3 of those 4 totals higher than this current number of 216.  The lowest output of those four meetings was 211 and they averaged 220 points in those four games.  The two teams combined to shoot 46% in those four games so the fact is they put up a lot of points, yet didn’t shoot light’s out.  This one goes OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 204 - Boston @ Chicago, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Our computer says under along with several other indicators including public money on ‘over’ but the line has dipped. In the two meetings in Chicago the total points scored has ended up being 191 and 199. There has been a poor shooting performance by one of the two teams in nearly every game of this series. The ‘under’ is 5-0 the last five clashes between these two teams in the Windy City. Celtics ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 road games. Bulls ‘under’ in 10 of their last eleven home games against teams with winning road records. That tells us the Bulls know they must slow the pace to have a chance to win. They’ll grind tonight and keep this from being a shootout. BET UNDER!

We will play UNDER 195.5 in the Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Tipoff is 7PM ET. We hit a big UNDER wager earlier in this series in Game 3 and will come right back here with the same bet. Looking at this first round matchup we see the Bucks have scored 97 or less points in 3 of the five games. Toronto has scored 87 or less points in 3 of the five. In the most recent meeting in Toronto, these two teams combined for 211 total points but they only took 139 shots to get there. Remember, the league average for field goal attempts per game is 170 and the league average for points scored is 211. So these two clubs scored the league average but took 31 LESS FG ATTEMPTS! In other words, they shot extremely well. Had the Bucks shot their regular season average percentage on the game they score around 83 points. The same can be said for the Raptors. If they shoot 'normally' at home they score approximately 100 points. In the two games in Milwaukee the Raptors scored 77 and 87 points and shot an average of 37.5%. The Bucks put up 104 and 76 points in the two games in Milwaukee but shot nearly 53% in the game they put up 104 (regular season average 47.5%). Lots of UNDER support here as 5 straight meetings on this court between these two franchises have all stayed below the posted number.  11-4 under record the last 15 meets. Based on pace of play we expect a low scoring game.  

ASA play on UNDER 195 Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - This is clearly a contrarian wager on our part and we'll explain why we're on the right side here. Take a look at the actual Totals posted by Vegas on the last three games of this series. In Game 2 the Total was 199.5 and the two teams combined for 190 points. That was with 154 combined field goal attempts. In Game 3 the number is set at 197.5 which is a logical adjustment by Vegas based on the first two games. The Jazz and Clippers have hot shooting nights and combine for 217 total points but they only attempts 144 field goals. After a high scoring game you'd expect the number to go up correct? In Game 4 though, the number drops to 196 and they total 203-points. They did it again with some remarkable shooting on just 149 attempts from the field. So after two straight overs and higher scoring games the number tonight dips to the lowest of the series at 195? The key here is the pace of play statistics. The league average for FG attempts per game is 170 but these two teams have combined for 144 and 149 in two straight games. Logically, statistics say their shooting percentages return to normal and at a slower paced game we get a very low scoring contest. Both teams are very good shooting teams on the season but in the last two games they've been abnormally good. The Jazz have shot a combined 53% (season ave 46.7%) while the Clippers shot 54% in Game 3 and have made 39% of their 3's the past two games which is also higher than their season numbers. The Under has cashed 5 of the last six meetings here. Play UNDER!

ASA play OVER 220 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers 10:30PM ET.  To begin with our Math Model projected 228 total points on this game with the big indicators here being the pace of play. In the last two games these teams have combined for 181 FG attempts in each game which is substantially higher than the league average. In comparison to the league average for points scored per game (211) and field goal attempts this total has still not been set high enough. In other words we need 'average' shooting nights from both teams to cash in. Golden State’s road efficiency numbers are off the charts as they average 1.128 points per possession which is 2nd best in the NBA. They average 113PPG on the road and in the three meeting here against the Blazers this season they put up 127, 113 and 119 points. There is no reason the Warriors don’t get to 115 plus in this game, especially considering the Blazers have the 7th worst defensive efficiency defense in the NBA allowing 1.109PPP and 108.5PPG. But to get to 220+ we’ll need the Blazers to score and we feel they will. Portland was in the top half of the league in pace of play and 8th in the NBA in scoring at 107.9PPG. All four of the regular season meetings between these two ended with 224 or more points and just 1 of the three playoff meetings has ended with less than 230 total points. 9 of the last ten meetings has ended with more total points than tonight's number so let's keep this simple and not over-think it. BET OVER!

ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it!

ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA),  and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. 

We are going to play UNDER in the Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors game #2, Weds 10:30PM ET - Public money has been steadily coming in on the OVER tonight, yet the line has dropped from 221 to 220. The opening game of this series ended with 230 total points but there were some abnormal circumstances that we don't expect to repeat tonight. The Blazers starting backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard went off in Game 1 as they combined for 75 of the 109 points the Blazers scored. Those two players were 28 of 54 from the field and 7 of 15 from beyond the arc. It's unlikely those two great players can duplicate a performance like that again tonight. The rest of the Blazers shot just 30% on the night. Meanwhile the Warriors shot 53% from the field and Kevin Durant contributed 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. Durant is questionable tonight  and even if he does play he won't be 100% and won't put up those numbers again. Let's not forget the Warriors have the 2nd best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall, #1 when playing at home. Portland hasn't been great defensively all season long but they were better down the stretch of the regular season by holding five straight opponents to 106 points or less. All the indicators tell us the UNDER is the way to go here. 

We are playing OVER 194 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors game Tuesday. The line on this game has been over-adjusted by the Oddsmakers as its 4 full points less than Game 1. Granted, these two teams combined for just 180 total points in the opener but the Raptors couldn't make a shot in the second half and only scored 13-points in the 4th quarter. For the game the Raptors shot just 36%, going 27 of 75 from the field. That's an abnormally low number as Toronto shot 46.3% on the season which was 11th best in the NBA. Not to mention their 75 field goal attempts were 9 less than their season average of 84.3 on the year. If Toronto has an average night shooting and an average number of field goal attempts, the opener goes way over this number. The Bucks had a decent shooting night as they hit 44.7% from the field but that is still below their season average of 47.4% which was 4th best in the NBA. On the road this season the Bucks average 204 total points per game while the Raptors averaged 213 at home. Do you know how many times the Raptors and their opponent have totaled less than 200 points in Toronto this year? Just 9 times out of 42 games! This is the 6th meeting of the season between these two teams and 4 of the six had totals set by the oddsmakers of 203 or more. Value says bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON: Over 208 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - All we need is an average game for this bet to win and we feel we get that tonight. What we mean by average is this. The league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211PPG this year and based on what these two teams did this year we are predicting 213 total points. Both clubs are right around league average when it comes to pace or possessions per game. Both Indiana and Cleveland are above average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings with the Cavs having the 3rd highest points per possession in the NBA at 1.137PPP. Both teams are also below average in defensive efficiency. In the opener these two combined for 217 total points and that was with the Cavs missing 13 free throws and Kyrie Irving going just 1 for 9 from beyond the arc. In the last four meetings between these two teams they've combined for 249, 217, 265 (OT) and 217. Both teams have some significant over trends right now and we'll predict another over tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests.  Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams.  Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1.

ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas!

Today we play OVER 227.5 in the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns game, 10PM ET. The Thunder are essentially locked into the 6th seed in the West so this game really isn't about playoff positioning. But it is about Russell Westbrook setting the all time record for the most triple-doubles in a season so expect a focused Thunders team tonight. OKC could play a better opponent than tonight's as the Suns are young, fun and want to run-n-gun! Westbrook is averaging 41.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Suns this season and had a pair of games with 51 and 48 points! He also needs just 6 assists tonight to ensure averaging double digits assists this year and who better to play than the Suns who he has a career best 22 assist game against. Phoenix waved the white flag a week ago and are sitting veteran players to see how the younger pieces fit. Defensively for the Sun's it's been a disaster as they've allowed 120+ in four straight and 112 or more in 9 of their last ten games. Phoenix has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the year and are also the 2nd fastest paced team which helps our wager tonight. Just over a month ago these same two teams met and combined for 229 total points and that was with the Thunder shooting just 42.5% as a team against a Suns D that allows over 47% on their home court. OKC has played in a few lower scoring games of late but tonight they'll gladly play the Suns style and it will lead to 230+ points. 

ASA play on: OVER 202.5 Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers, 10:35PM ET - Based on the full season statistics our math model projects 207 total points in this game but when we dissect those numbers, we see a current trend toward an even higher scoring game. On the season the Mavs average 92.1 possessions per game which is what they've averaged their last five games. But their offensive efficiency numbers are better and their defensive efficiency numbers are worse. Dallas is coming off a game last night and when playing without rest the Mavs have averaged 205PPG on the season. The Clippers are about league average in pace of play and offensive efficiency ratings but below average in defensive efficiency. Don't forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year is 211 so today's total on this game is set a full 8-points less than average. The Clippers have had 3 full days rest leading up to tonight and in the previous 4 games in this scheduling situation those games have averaged 234 total points. 

ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz!

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace.  They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight.

UNDER 199 in the New Orleans at Utah Jazz game tonight, 10:30PM ET. There are several questionable players in the rotations for both teams but either way we expect a lower scoring game tonight. These same two teams recently met on this court (3/6) and produced just 171 total points. The Vegas number on that game was 197. Looking at the Pelicans most recent games they've played against some of the leagues faster paced teams which has led to some higher scoring games, hence a higher line on this game. But when they've played similar teams to the Jazz like Memphis and Toronto they've scored just 177 and 181 total points. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA at just 91.6  possessions per game and they have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.051 points per possession. New Orleans typically plays faster but they also have the 5th best DEFF rating allowing just 1.064PPP. We doubt New Orleans wants to get into an up-and-down game tonight after a game last night in Denver  which will clearly help out cause here. We bet UNDER the total!

ASA PLAY OVER 194 in the Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks game, 8:35PM ET. Our analytics or math model has put us on this total that has clearly been set to low by the oddsmakers. Our computers tell us the total points scored in this game should be 203 which is drastically different that the set number. Let's not forget the league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211. Both of these team are near the league average in pace of play so we know we'll get the tempo we need for points. They are slightly better than average in terms of defensive efficiency ratings and Toronto is far better in offensive efficiency than the Mavs. But again, we're talking averages here and what the projected total points that will be scored based on math. Part of the reason this number is so low is the fact these two teams recently playing in Toronto and that game ended with just 178 total points but the Mavs, who average 98PPG on the season, managed just 78. That won't happen at home today where they average 100.5PPG on the season. The value wager on this game is OVER the total!

ASA 3* PLAY UNDER 221 Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET.  We successfully played under in the Nets game last night and our  math model has put us on this under tonight. Quickly, comparing last night's Nets game with tonight's opponent, we see that Washington plays slower than Phoenix (Nets played last night) and are better defensively.  But yet the line on tonight's game is nearly the same. These same two teams just met in mid-February and combined for 224 in overtime. At the end of regulation the Nets and Wizards had combined for just 200 points in that game. As we mentioned last night, the Nets are playing much slower of late and it's led to 3 unders in their last four games. Last night they did put up 126 points but that was against a Suns team that is horrible defensively and they are a team that has quit on the season. Washington has a huge game on deck against the Cavs and play a tough stretch of games coming up so the last thing they'll want to do tonight is run-n-gun. When playing in Washington the Wizards, combined with their opponent, have topped 224 total points just two times in their last 13. Brooklyn games average 224PPG on the road this year, Washington home games average 215. Do the math! Both teams scoring and points allowed are trending down right now and we bet UNDER here!

The value NBA Total bet tonight is UNDER in the Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets game. Our math model projects 218 total points in this game. The oddsmakers opened a number of 219.5 which has gone up dramatically to the current total. Obviously, there is tremendous value with the UNDER here. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 107.1PPG but in their last five games they are averaging just 99.4PPG which is the 6th lowest average in the NBA. While their offensive numbers have been on a slide down hill, their defensive statistics have improved. On the season the Suns allow 1.116 points per possession (5th worst) but in their last five games they are giving up an average of 1.068PPP which is 12th best in the league. Phoenix has scored 103 or less points in 6 straight games. The Nets have had a few slower paced games and it looks like the wear and tear of the season is catching up with them, much like the Suns. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the league on the year with 101.1 possessions per game but in their last five games that average has dipped to 97 possessions which is 18th slowest. On the year the Nets have one of the three worst offenses in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and they've averaged just 99PPG their last three games. When the Suns have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219PPG while the Nets home games have averaged 215PPG. This is an easy call with the UNDER!

ASA PLAY OVER 207.5 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers 10PM ET. We have patiently watched this line drop all day as it opened at 214.5 and is now 207.5 which offers tremendous value with an OVER bet. When these two teams met earlier this year the oddsmakers posted a number of 215 which is where our  math model suggests this game will end up at. They combined for 222 in the earlier meeting and an easy over winner. Portland returns home tonight where they've combined with their opponents to scored more than tonight's total in 13 of their last 15. Milwaukee has gone under in several games of late but they also faced a few of the leagues better defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Tonight they face a Blazers team that is 27th in the NBA in DEFF, allowing 1.117 points per possession. When playing on the road this season the Bucks games have averaged 207PPG this season while the Blazers home games have averaged 219 total points. The last 13 times these two teams have met in Portland the over has cashed 9 times. The bet here is OVER!

We will play OVER 192.5 in the Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET - We are betting a number here as the value lies with an over wager on this game. Our math model suggests 201.5 points in this contest which is drastically higher than the Vegas line. Remember, scoring is up this year in the NBA and the league is per game is 211PPG. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league and yet they've had just 9 games in their last 51 with a posted total lower than tonight's number. Granted, the over is just 5-4 in those games but the point is Vegas doesn't typically post lines this low on games. As for the Pacers and Vegas Totals they have played 69 games this season and only TWO have had totals less than 200 points and both went over. These same two teams met in late January and the oddsmaker posted a number of 200.5 on that game and they combined for 209 points. Overall on the road this season the Jazz and their opponents are averaging 198PPG while the Pacers home games have averaged 208 total points per game. Utah is 15-10 to the over when the line is 194.5 or less. Over is 4-1 L5 Pacers games versus a team with a winning straight up record. 

ASA PLAY  ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. 

ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road).  On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. 

We are going to play OVER in the OKC Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers game. The current Total on this game is hovering around 219 total points which is 8-points higher than the league average but we still feel there is enough value for an OVER wager. These two teams are both in the top 10 of the league in terms of pace of play and both are in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. OKC may be 10th in defensive efficiency ratings but Portland is 4th worst. In their last four games the Thunder have scored 109 or more points in every game and they've given up 105 or more in three of the four. Portland is allowing an average of 111PPG their last five games with opponents hitting over 45% from the field against them. There will be some fantastic guard play tonight with Lillard, McCollum and Russell Westbrook on the court and we expect a fast paced high scoring affair. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today!

ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. 

PLAY OVER 212.5 CELTICS @ BULLS - We will play OVER in the Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls game tonight. The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C's over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record. 

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. 

PLAY OVER 217 Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers, Tuesday 10:35PM ET - Our play tonight is OVER in the Sacramento Kings @ L.A. Lakers game. Pace is clearly one of the first things to look at when betting Over/Unders in the NBA and the current numbers for each team support a faster paced game tonight. The Kings on the season are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (4th slowest) but in their last five games they are averaging more possessions per game and rank 14th fastest. The Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams all season (6th) but in their last five games they are 2nd at 103.1 possessions per game. Over the course of their last five games the Kings are averaging 107PPG while the Lakers check in at 112PPG. While the Kings have been better defensively than the Lakers over their recent stretch, L.A. has allowed 114PPG. OK, so we have pace what about scoring? Well both of these teams rank in the bottom 7 of the league in field goal percentage defense against so both should make plenty of shots. Both teams have 5-1 OVER streaks as the Kings have gone OVER the number in 5 of their last six on the road while the Lakers have gone OVER in 5 of their last six anywhere. The play here is OVER the Total!

PLAY  ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA.  Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again!

514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today!

Tonight we like UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons game. Pace or tempo are critical aspects when handicapping Totals and tonight we have 6th (Spurs) and 7th (Pistons) slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off. The average total points scored per game is 210 and the number on tonight's game is hovering around that total even though we have two of the slowest paced teams in the league. While San Antonio is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.128 points per possession the Pistons are 20th in that same category at 1.067PPP. Defense is another story though as both rank in the top 7 in points allowed per possession. Two teams that play slow and great defense and only one that is better than average in scoring means a very low scoring game tonight. A similar team to Detroit is Memphis and the Spurs just played the Grizzlies and totaled 163 points. The last time these two opponents squared off was back in November and that game ended with 182 total points. Tremendous value with an UNDER bet here. 

PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. 

PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points.

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. 

ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits!

PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of  13PPG. Lay the points!

PLAY UNDER WARRIORS @ CLIPPERS, 10:35PM ET - Tonight we'll play UNDER 228 in the Golden State Warriors @ L.A. Clippers game. Right now I'm guessing you're not a fan of this wager considering these two teams just met last Saturday with the Warriors winning 144-98. Now Golden State is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 50% from the field and they make 39% of their 3-point attempts. So it was abnormal that they made 62% of their FG attempts in the last meeting with the Clippers and 17 3-pointers which is 5 more than their season average. What also supports our thinking here is the fact the Clippers have a top 8 defense in terms of overall shooting percentage defense and 3-point percentage D. L.A. coach Doc Rivers has reminded his players just how embarrassing that loss was and you can bet they'll be much more focused on the defensive end of the court tonight. Golden State averages 5 less points per game on the road compared to at home and allow less too. The Clippers at home average 203 total points per game and are one of just 6 teams that allow less than 100PPG on their home court. These two teams are two of the 12 best defensive efficiency ratings teams in the league with the Warriors #1 allowing just 1.036 points per possession. The number on tonight's game is ridiculously high and the value lies with UNDER. In the last 10 meetings only 2 have resulted with more points than the number set on tonight's game. BET UNDER!

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (ML wager) over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We will play on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are off a game last night in Los Angeles and the final score isn't really a good indicator of just how poorly they played. They shot just 38% for the first three quarters of the game, then gave up 39 points in the final stanza to the Lakers. Denver is just 2-7 SU when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 6PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 11 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-10 SU & ATS in those games. Memphis is playing better now since they've gotten healthy and have a 13-12 SU road record with an average point differential of -1PPG when away from home. That average point differential is 8th best in the NBA. The Grizz have won 3 of their last five road games and have7-3 spread record when laying 3.5 or less points this season. Denver obviously relies on their offense to win games and will try to push tempo here. The Nuggets are just 1-6 SU their last seven games when they don't score 120 or more points and Memphis has allowed over 120 just once all season and that was early on when they had multiple injuries. The Grizzlies have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating and they'll contain the high-octane offense of Denver. Take Memphis here.

PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here.

PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season.  Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it!

OVER 207.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns, 10:35PM ET - We will wager OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns game tonight. The league average for total points scored in an NBA game this year is 210PPG. Memphis and Utah are the only two teams in the league to average less than 100PPG offensively and defensively. But the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in 7 of their last eight games and have the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA over their last five contests. Phoenix wants to play fast and are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA on the season. In their last five games they have the 3rd most efficient offense averaging 1.165 points per possession. Another important factor here is defense and while the Grizzles play some, the Suns don't. Phoenix allows an average of 112PPG and 1.118PPP with the 5th worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Suns have had just 9 games this year with a total set of 210 or less and those games have a 6-3 over record. Memphis has played over in 5 straight on the road against teams with losing home records and Suns on perfect 6-0 over run at home. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue.  The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight.  The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out  of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte!

PLAY OVER 210.5: Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - We are playing OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  There are a few indicators that suggest this is going to be a very high scoring game. Let's start with the Pacers defense, or should I say, lack of defense. Indiana has allowed 11 of their last 14 opponents to scored 100 or more points against them and 8 of those 14 have scored 108 or more. In their last six road contests the Pacers have given up an average of 114PPG. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Pacers are 15th in the league or average allowing 1.083 points per possession.  Indiana 29th out of 30 teams in the league in opponents offensive rebounds per game. That's a huge factor here as the Wolves are the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league which translates to some easy opportunities at the rim. As far as Minnesota is concerned, defensively they are the 23rd worst team in the league in DEFF allowing 1.102 points per possession. The Wolves have allowed an average of 111PPG their last four outings but have scored an average of 110PPG in those same four games.  Minnesota will have problems slowing down a Pacers offense that has scored 100 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and 106 or more in 6 of their last ten. In their last five games both teams are shooting above their season averages with both above 48%. The OVER has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams in Minny. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. 

PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule.   OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. 

ASA  We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one!

We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS.  The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat.  And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here!

UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - We like UNDER 204 in the Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns game. Let’s start with the basics. The average total points scored in an NBA game right now is just a shade lower than 210 total points. The number on that game is obviously lower than that but not enough in our opinion based on current statistics. First, the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league at 91.2 possession per game and second, they allow just 1.039 points per possession #1 in the NBA. The Suns on the other hand are the 3rd fastest paced team at 99.5PPP. BUT, in their last five games the Suns have averaged just 92.5 possessions per game which is the 3rd slowest average in the NBA. The Jazz have held 7 of their last ten opponents to less than 92PPG which includes a game against Brooklyn who is very similar to Phoenix and the Suns when they allowed just 86 points in the previous meeting with Phoenix (177 total pts). The dominate team (Utah) will dictate tempo here just as they’ve done in the past four meetings on this court where they’ve averaged 185 total points per game. Phoenix is coming off two games in the higher altitude of Mexico City and may be a little fatigued here too. Easy bet UNDER!

PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington!

#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today  we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home.  We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta.

PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5 OVER BOSTON CELTICS, TUES 7:35PM ET - There is a HUGE Atlantic Division showdown Tuesday night when the Raptors host the Celtics in Toronto. What a great spot to play on the Raptors, who at first look, seem to be struggling with a 2-5 record over their last seven games but scheduling has a lot to do with that. Toronto came off a 6 game road trip, played one game at home, then went to Chicago, then came home the following night only to lose to the red hot Rockets by 7-points. Toronto is 12-6 SU at home and has the 3rd best overall home point differential of +10.4PPG.  Those numbers aren't a fluke as this same roster was 32-9 SU at home last year with an average point differential of +6.6PPG, 6th best in the NBA.  The Raptors respond well when coming off a SU loss as they are 9-4 SU and ATS in that role this season.  Boston has won 4 straight games but all of those were at home and now must travel to one of the toughest venues in the NBA. The Celtics have a 12-8 SU road record this year but a closer look shows they are just 1-5  SU their last six road games when playing a team with a current winning record and the lone win came in Memphis in OT. When playing a division opponent the Raptors are 15-6 ATS dating back to last year and they've cashed 4 of the last five meetings with Boston. With just 1 game separating these two teams in the Atlantic Division and the Raps coming off a pair of losses it's a perfect time to 'buy' Toronto at home!

PLAY ON:  #509 NY Knicks (+5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - It's not often that 'revenge' factors into NBA games but this is certainly one of them with New York traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. These same two teams just met a few nights back in New York with the Bucks pulling out a 1-point win on a last second jumper by Bucks sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Hidden in that loss though is the fact the Knicks played great basketball for 75% of the game, led by as many as 16 points before a collapse in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact the Knicks were the home team they were outscored by 15 from the free throw line by Milwaukee but Melo picked up the slack for New York by scoring 30 points. Let's not forget the Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis who is averaging 20PPG, 7.8RPG and 1.3 APG. Porzingis practiced yesterday and our reports say he's likely to play tonight. Even if he doesn't we like the Knicks plus the points. New York clearly has a talented roster but at times don't play up to their potential. The Knicks 5-1 ATS record their last six games against teams with winning records supports this theory. In this scenario we feel a focused, motivated team gets a solid cover here. The young Bucks have just 1 spread win their last five games following a SU win and we don't see them getting a cover here. 

UNDER 208 HAWKS @ MAGIC - We have a contrarian wager for you on Wednesday night with the UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic game tonight. Recent trends by both teams have pushed this number higher than it should be and the value lies with the UNDER. In their last five games both teams are playing faster than season averages with more possessions per game and scores have been higher. But when you look at the whole this Total has clearly been set too high tonight. These same two teams just me three weeks back and the oddsmakers had a Total set of 202 which is considerably less than tonight's number. Granted in the last meeting these two teams combined for 251 total points but that was clearly an aberration and abnormal. Prior to the most recent meeting, in regulation, these two teams had combined for 203 or less points in 8 straight meetings. When these two teams have played within the Division this season they have a combined UNDER record of 4-11 and we expect that trend to continue as defense will dictate on both ends of the court. With public money flowing in on the OVER and wiseguys betting UNDER this is an easy call. UNDER!

#506 @Chicago Bulls (ML) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET - We've had this game circled for a couple weeks now after the Bucks beat the Bulls on consecutive days Dec 15th and 16th. True revenge is a rare commodity in the NBA but it will factor in here as Chicago was beaten badly (69-95) at home in the back end of that two game set. The Bulls are a respectable 10-6 SU at home this season with the 13th best home point differential of +3.6PPG. Milwaukee is 5-9 SU on the road this season and has some impressive efficiency statistics but this just isn't a good spot for them having played in Minnesota last night and having to travel to Chicago today to face this hungry Bulls team. Chicago also played yesterday, and lost in Indiana but now they are back home where they are 6-3 SU off a loss. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS when playing the second night of a B2B and have lost those games by an average of nearly 7PPG. When these two teams last met on Dec 16th on this same court the Bulls were favored by 5 points so you can see for yourself the added value of today's spread. Chicago has covered 7 of the last nine meetings with Milwaukee on this court. Lay it!