ASA play on Sacramento Kings -130 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Bucks are fighting for a top 4 seed in the East and home court, the Kings are trying to hold on to the 9th seed in the Western Conference. The Bucks are coming off a blowout win over the Lakers but Los Angeles was without most of their key starters. Milwaukee is 3-5 SU their last eight games overall and have been a poor road team this season at 15-18 SU with a negative differential of minus -1.2ppg. Sacramento is coming off a home loss to the Bulls but had two solid wins prior against the Cavs and Grizzlies. The Kings are slightly above .500 at home with a 18-16 record, plus +2.1ppg. In the lone meeting earlier this season, the Bucks beat the Kings 130-115 as a -2-point home favorite. The Kings have two games on deck against the Celtics and Thunder which makes this game that much more important as a 4-game losing streak would be devastating to their playoff hopes. The line on this game is begging you to take the Bucks, so we’ll play contrarian and back the Kings.

ASA play on OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - The Bucks, sitting 3rd in the NBA for 3-point shooting, are primed to light up the Kings, who rank dead last (30th) at defending the three. Sacramento’s been an offensive beast lately, posting a 117.6 offensive rating over their last ten games (9th in the league), while Milwaukee’s at 115.3 (14th). Their first meeting this season was a 245-point OVER with 104 field goal attempts, way past the league’s 178.4-per-game average. The Kings’ defense isn’t helping either, giving up 119 or more in six straight games. With Milwaukee’s pace (100.2) and Sacramento’s (99.3) keeping things moving, this could turn into another shootout. Sacramento is shooting the ball extremely well right now with the 7th best EFG% over their last fifteen games. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past as they currently rank 10th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.127-points per possession. This Bucks vs. Kings game goes OVER 222.5 total points comfortably.

ASA play on OVER 226.5 Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers – 10:40 pm ET - These two teams met on March 13th in Milwaukee and produced 232 total points. That game was played at an average pace with average shooting by both teams and it climbed OVER the number of 226.5. We expect a very similar result tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible showing against the Warriors a couple of nights ago in which they managed just 17-points in two of the four quarters. The Bucks are the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 47.9% and rank 2nd in 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee ranks 14th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.146-points per possession. The Lakers are 12th in OEFF on the season and have been even more efficient in their last 5-games at 1.176PPP. LA has the 9th best FG% at 47.9% and rank 16th in 3PT% at 35.9%. The Lakers are playing at a faster rate in their last 5 games without LeBron and tempo will play an important role in this OVER. Milwaukee is 11th in pace of play on the season and will look to get out and run against a Lakers defense that allows the 25th most fast break points in the league. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams has flown OVER the total.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, 7:40pm ET - This game has all the makings of an ‘average’ NBA game which is great for our OVER bet. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season and for the last several years is 227.4 total points per game. Obviously, if these two play ‘average’ it goes OVER easily. In fact, our math model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season for these two teams. On October 28th they combined for 204 total points. In mid-November and mid-December, they played two OT games, but in regulation they totaled 228 and 222. Miami has had some problems scoring of late with four straight games of 104 or less points but they’ve also come against good defensive teams. Detroit is top 8 in Defensive Efficiency ratings this season, but they should have some success with their 3PT shooting against a Pistons D that ranks 22nd in 3PT% allowed. Detroit plays with pace and is the 7th fastest tempo team in the league at 100 possessions per game. We are not asking these two teams to score 235 or anything ridiculous, just be average and we cash an easy win.

ASA play on UNDER 228 Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - We were fortunate to bet this game UNDER 234 when it opened but now find this number at 229 with the announcement Steph Curry will not play tonight. We still feel there is value in this UNDER as long as it stays above 227. If we examine recent trends for both teams we find that both teams have been excellent defensively in their last 15 games. The Warriors Defensive Net rating of 108.2 ranks 3rd best, the Bucks 109.7 ranks 5th. When we look at each teams season numbers offensively we find both rank near league average in Offensive Net ratings with the Bucks 14th the Warriors 16th. Golden State is off a game last night against the Nuggets and when playing without rest this season they have stayed UNDER in 7 of eleven games by an average of -11.4ppg. The Bucks are 9-13 UNDER this season against the Western Conference. The Bucks have recently faced three similar defenses to the Warriors and struggled offensively scoring 105 against the Thunder, 100 vs. Cleveland and 109 against the Magic. Golden State’s offense has sputtered in two straight games, managing 97 points against the Knicks and 105 last night versus Denver.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

ASA play on UNDER 235.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams really don’t like each other and this matchup has become one of the better current rivalries in the NBA. They just met in Indiana earlier in the week and produced 229 total points when Haliburton converted a 4-point play late for the win. The takeaway from that game was the total field goal attempts which was 171, lower than a regular NBA game of 178.4. Both teams shot above expectations at 51% which is better than their season average of 48.9% and 48.1%. This game has a playoff feel to it and we expect both defenses to step up and make every shot difficult. If you exclude OT these two have stayed UNDER this number in 7 of the last nine meetings. Indiana is coming off a game last night and have favored the UNDER when playing without rest at 4-6 this season. Milwaukee also has a slight tendency to play UNDER with a rest advantage with a 16-18-1 record. Indiana has stayed UNDER in 4 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In each teams last ten games the defenses have been above average with the Pacers ranking 13th in Net Rating, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams are also closer to average in Offensive Net rating at 116.0 and 116.4. Our math model tells us this game will be closer to the league average of 227.4 total points per game than the oddsmakers number of 235.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

ASA play on Miami Heat -135 vs. LA Clippers, 8pm ET - The Clippers are off a game last night in New Orleans and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six so fatigue will be a factor. When playing without rest the Clippers are 5-8 ATS with a negative average differential of minus -4.1ppg. Miami is rested after a home loss on Monday to the Hornets. The Heat have lost 4-straight and are in danger of missing the playoffs as they sit 9th in the East. Miami will have their starting five intact as Andrew Wiggins returned from an injury against Charlotte and contributed 19-points and 7 rebounds. Miami doesn’t have great home results of late with an 0-3 run in their own building, but the Clippers are 1-6 SU their last seven on the road. In each teams last ten games the Heat actually own the better Net Rating at 0.2 compared to the Clippers at -2.5. With two fairly even teams statistically, we like the home team, off a loss against the unrested foe. Lay it with Miami.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

ASA play on NY Knicks -120 at Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - The Knicks are in a solid situation here as they are off a loss on Saturday to the Lakers, while the Kings are coming off a huge Divisional game versus the Clippers. The Kings are 4-7 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative average differential of minus -3.6ppg. New York is solid off a loss this season with a 16-6 SU record with an average MOV of +7.3ppg. New York is 19-12 SU on the road this season, the Kings are 16-14 SU at home. The Knicks should find plenty of open looks with their 4th best FG% going up against the Kings 17th ranked FG% defense. New York is also the 9th best 3PT% team in the league, the King 3PT% defense is last in the NBA. The Knicks have won 3 straight in the series including a game in the Big Apple earlier this season by 23-points. NY is also 7-1 SU in the last eight versus Sacramento. Given the scheduling circumstances we like New York by double-digits in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

ASA play on OVER 238 Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - In this game we get two top 10 shooting teams with the Suns hitting 47.7% for the season overall and 37.8% from the 3-point line (4th). The Nuggets rank 1st in team FG% at 50.7%, 3rd in 3PT% at 38%. Denver is the 2nd best team in the league in Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.20PPP, the Suns rank 9th at 1.158PPP. Neither team plays much defense with the Nuggets ranking 18th in DEFF, Phoenix is worse yet, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.179-points per possession. Phoenix has allowed 116 or more points in 9 of their last ten games and Denver is putting up an average of 121.9ppg in their last ten games. We like the current betting trends as more money and tickets have come in on the under in this game, yet the line is trending up which suggests smart money action. Bet the OVER in this one.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

ASA play on UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, 10:40pm ET - These two teams recently met in Detroit and produced 203 total points with the Pistons winning at home 106-97. The Clippers were coming off a game the night before and simply didn’t have the juice on the second night of a back-to-back. That has been a theme for the Clippers who are 3-9 UNDER this season when playing without rest. If the second game of that 2-game leg is at home, where they are on a 5 straight UNDER streak (5-1 for the year). L.A. is off a pair of big games against the Lakers then played Tuesday in Phoenix so fatigue will be a factor. The Pistons are coming off a 134-106 win against the 15-win Jazz who have the worst Defensive Efficiency stats in the NBA. Tonight, Detroit will face a Clippers team that is 4th on the season in DEFF allowing just 1.102-points per possession. The Pistons defense is 11th on the season in Defensive Efficiency. Detroit has faced a handful of teams recently that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play which has led to a few higher scoring games. Tonight, they face a Clippers team that prefers to play slow, ranking 17th in pace. Offensively the Pistons are 14th in OEFF, the Clippers are 22nd. We like UNDER in this one.

ASA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two Eastern Conference foes and we predict another OVER and higher scoring game. In the first two clashes these two teams combined for 235 and 232 total points. Both teams shot extremely well in both games. Cleveland is the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 1.229-points per possession. They have the best overall EFG% at 58.7% and are putting up 124ppg at home this season. Miami’s defense is not what it used to be as they rank 13th in DEFF allowing 1.134PPP. Miami is 12th in OEFF and makes a living with 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 10th in made 3-pointers, 11th in attempts and 14th in 3PT%. The Cavs defense is very good, but they do struggle to defend the 3-point line allowing 36% shooting by opponents which ranks 19th in the league. The Cavs are coming off a game last night and when they play without rest they are 9-3 OVER this season with those games going OVER by an average of +8.9ppg. This game will get into the 230’s.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA play on UNDER 254 Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Our Math Model is projecting 236 total points on this game and even though we have the two fastest paced teams in the NBA facing off, we have to bet UNDER. Combined these two teams have had an O/U set of 250 or higher just one time in 160 total games this season. That was a game the Grizzlies were involved in against the Pacers which finished with 240 total points. Atlanta is 21st in Offensive Efficiency and 17th in Defensive Efficiency. Memphis is 6th in OEFF, 9th in DEFF. In the only other meeting this season between these two teams the O/U was set at 232.5 or a full 20+ points lower than tonight’s number. They combined for 240 points in that game. Atlanta has 3 big games on deck as they face the Bucks tomorrow night then the Pacers twice. Memphis has a huge 2 games looming against the Thunder and Mavericks. We doubt either team is interested in turning this game into a track meet and let’s face it, all it will take is one bad quarter by either team and they don’t get to 250. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on OVER 220.5 NY Knicks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct line on this game when they opened with 224 on this Over/Under and will now bet the value on OVER 221. For the older bettors, this is not the old days when Van Gundy/Ewing and the Knicks battled the Riley/Morning led Heat in a defensive mid-80’s type game. Gone are the days of playing defense and physicality in the NBA as it’s all about scoring and 3’s now. On the season the Heat rank 12th in Defensive Efficiency but in their last 5 games they fall to 18th. The Knicks rank 22nd in DEFF on the year, 25th in their last 5 games. The Knicks beat teams with an offense that is 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, has the 3rd best FG% at 49% and the 6th best 3PT% at 37%. New York should get plenty of good looks against a Miami defense that is 14th in FG% D overall and 17th in 3PT% defense. Miami is 12th on the season in OEFF at 1.124-points per possession and since the Butler trade has been better yet at 1.166PPP. Both teams have favored the OVER this season with a combined 65-52 record. When Miami has been a home underdog the OVER has cashed 6 of eight times. As a road favorite the Knicks are 12-9 OVER this season. In Conference games these two have a combined 42-33 OVER record. At the end of the day we are betting value in numbers and this line is to high.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

ASA play on UNDER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - This game sets up to be slightly lower scoring than an average NBA game and there is value in this UNDER with the current number. On the season the Bucks have played at a faster rate with 100.36 possessions per game ranking 8th. Since the AS break and the trade deadline they have slowed to 100.8 possessions per game ranking 12th. Dallas is 15th (average) on the in pace of play and have remained there since the AS break. Both teams are above average for the season in terms of Defensive Efficiency with the Bucks ranking 10th allowing 1.126-points per possession, the Mavs rank 14th at 1.139PPP. Looking at both teams full season statistics, they rank in the top half of the league in Offensive Efficiency but in their last five games it’s been a different story. In each teams last 5 games the Bucks rank 18th in OEFF, the Mavericks rank 25th. The Bucks are on a 6-game UNDER streak in road games with their last 3 away from home all finishing with less than 206 total points. Dallas has stayed UNDER in 3 straight home games and 4 of their last six. Both teams’ strengths offensively are the others defensive strength so we don’t see either team putting up more than 113 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on OVER 243.5 San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - The most important aspect of this game will be the pace of play. The Grizzlies are the fastest paced team in the NBA this season at 104 possessions per game. The Spurs rank 10th in pace on the season and since Wemby went down with an injury, they have increased their pace with 3 more possessions per game. Memphis is top 10 in Defensive Efficiency for the season but in their last 5 games they rank 27th out of 30 teams. San Antonio is slightly better than league average in DEFF allowing 1.148-points per possession. The Spurs attempt the 5th most 3-pointers in the league, the Grizzlies attempt the most field goals overall so we know we will get a high number of attempts by both teams. These two teams have met three times this season which resulted in 244, 252 and 237 total points being scored. With a high tempo game we like our chances of cashing this OVER ticket.

ASA play on OVER 226 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, 9:30 pm ET - The Wolves are coming off a game in Los Angeles last night while the Jazz were home resting and off a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. This is the same scenario earlier this season when the Wolves were off a game in Phoenix then traveled to Utah and responded with a 138-113 win. Utah is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.196-points per possession. They allow opponents to shoot 47.6% (26th) overall and 36% from the 3PT line which ranks 18th. That plays into the T’Wolves hands who rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.144PPP with the 5th best 3PT% and 18th overall FG%. Utah should put up 110+ points in this game against an unrested Minnesota defense that has slipped this season and is without Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 22nd in their last 5-games. Minnesota has allowed 120+ and have played OVER in three of their last four. Utah is giving up an average of 124.1ppg in their last ten games overall, 119.4ppg in their last 5 at home. It’s also encouraging to see the Jazz have put up some big offensive numbers against some of the leagues’ better defenses in their last 10 games. Utah put up 131 against Golden State, 110 and 116 versus the Clippers, 113 and 131 against the Lakers and 124 versus the Rockets. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last five games when playing without rest. Utah is 5-3 OVER when playing with rest advantage. In Conference games these two teams have a combined OVER record of 50-32 this season. Utah has gone OVER the total against Western Conference teams by an average of +5.0ppg. Minnesota has gone OVER against the West by an average of +1.6ppg.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

ASA Play on OVER 225 Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:40 pm ET - The current average NBA total points in a game is 226.8 points and this game sets up to be more than average. With Luka in the lineup the Lakers have played at a faster rate with over 101 possessions per game. Minnesota has been forced into a smaller lineup with Gobert injured and it’s led to a faster tempo of 101.9 possessions per game which is 7th most over a 5-game span. Both teams are top 13 in the league in Offensive Efficiency averaging more than 1.144-points per possession. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 18th in their last 5-games. Magically the Lakers defense has been better with Luka playing but that is a short-term bump as he is a below average defender. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in 4 straight games which has forced the oddsmakers hand and made them set this O/U lower than it should be. In fact, this is the second lowest O/U number on a Lakers game in their last ten games. Minnesota has played OVER in three straight games and has allowed 120 or more points in three straight games and 4 of their last six. All three meetings between these teams this year came before mid-December and all three have stayed UNDER. Last season 3 of the four clashes went OVER. We are betting value in the number and like OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Dallas Mavericks at LA Lakers, 10 pm ET - It’s the Luka revenge game in Los Angeles tonight! With NBA ratings at an all-time low this will certainly be a huge promotion for the league tonight as Luka Doncic takes on his former team. With that in mind, this O/U number has been inflated at the value in the numbers suggest UNDER. What I’m about to say next is going to shock you. For the season the Lakers defense ranks 13th in Defensive Net rating but since the Luka addition they have improved to 2nd best in the league. Granted, it’s only been 3-games but for whatever reason the Lakers defense has been better since the AS break and Luka is not known for his defense. Dallas is 13th for the season in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.143-points per possession and have maintained that number in their most recent 5-game stretch. Five of the last six games involving the Mavericks have stayed UNDER 228 points. The last three Laker games have all finished with 223 or less points and that includes a game against Denver who has the 2nd best OEFF rating in the NBA. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. These two teams are only slightly better than league average in terms of Offensive Efficiency, so we don’t expect either team to put up massive offensive numbers. This game sets up to be closer to the league average of 226 than the number set by the oddsmakers.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

ASA play on LA Clippers -122 at Detroit Pistons, 7 pm ET - Both teams played yesterday with different results as the Pistons won on the road in Atlanta, the Clippers lost at Indiana. The Pistons have won 6 straight games but not one of those wins have come against a team with an above .500 record. The Clippers have lost both games since the AS break against the Bucks and Pacers who are both playing well right now. In yesterday’s loss the Clippers sat Leonard for rest management, so we expect him back in the lineup for this game. L.A. was embarrassed yesterday by the Pacers, trailing by as many as 22-points and never led. The Clippers defense has been one of the best in the NBA the entire season ranking 3rd in Defensive Net Rating and the Pacers lite them up for 55% shooting. We don’t see that happening here against a Pistons team that is only slightly better than league average in team FG%. These two teams have very similar offensive numbers, but as we mentioned the Clippers are much better defensively. This looks like a trap-line by the oddsmakers as they work to attract Detroit money, but we won’t bite. Take the ugly road favorite here.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

ASA play on UNDER 222 Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - For starters, these two teams have favored the UNDER all season with a combined 46-62-2 record. In the last 15 NBA games these two teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in Offensive Net Rating. In that same time frame the Blazers are averaging 112.7ppg (22nd) while the Hornets are scoring 104.2ppg (28th). Both play at a much slower rate than league average with the Blazers ranking 18th in pace, the Hornets are 24th. Charlotte is above average in terms of Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.141-points per possession, the Blazers are below average allowing 1.163PPP, but in their last 15 games the Blazers defense rates 4th best in the league. Neither team is great shooting with the Hornets 29thh in EFG%, the Blazes are 24th. In their last ten games the Hornets and their opponents have scored more than this O/U number just three times. Charlotte’s offense has scored 104 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Portland has held 7 of their last eight opponents not named Denver to 114 or less points. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 199 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.

ASA play on OVER 236.5 New Orleans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met on Jan 29th and produced 273 total points. Both teams had 96 field goal attempts in the game and each hit over 53% from the field. They also were dialed in from Deep with the Mavs hitting 20/43 3-pointers, the Pelicans made 15/31. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, one of the two teams has scored 119 or more points. In that same 7-game stretch these two have combined for 235 or more points five times. A big reason why these two teams have played in higher scoring games of late is their lack of defense. In the last 10 games the Mavericks have the 29th rated Defense in terms of Net rating at 120.7. The Pelicans are last in the NBA at 123. The Pelicans are 12th in pace of play this season, the Mavericks are 15th. We expect plenty of points in this one and like OVER.

ASA play on LA Clippers +105 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - These teams met in California in late January which the Clippers won 127-117 as a -3.5-point favorite. The Bucks though had Giannis for that game who poured in 36-points, grabbed 13-rebounds with 1-block. The Clippers didn’t do anything extraordinary in that game and still won by 10-points. In the Bucks last ten games they have a negative Net Rating of -6.6 which is the 26th worst number in the NBA. The Clippers are 11th in Net Rating over the last 10 games at +2.8. The Clippers have the 3rd best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.094PPP. The Bucks defense ranks 12th in DEFF and will have a tough time stopping a Clippers offense that is starting to gel with Kahwi Leonard being worked back into the lineup. L.A. ranks 11th in OEFF this season compared to the Bucks at 19th. We are not sure how the addition of Kuzma is going to work in Milwaukee and in the short-term will look to play against the Bucks without a healthy Giannis. Milwaukee is 16-29 ATS their last 45 games against the West.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7pm ET - Memphis is 7-3 SU their last ten games, with the three losses coming at the Clippers, vs. OKC and at New York. In that 10-game stretch prior to the All-Star break the Grizzlies had the 9th best Net differential in the NBA at +4.4. Indiana is 14th in NR in their last ten games at 1.0. These two teams are very similar offensively with the Grizzlies ranking 5th in FG% shooting at 48.6%. The Pacers have similar numbers at 48.8% which ranks 4th. Memphis is 6th in 3PT%, the Pacers are 11th. On the season the Grizz rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.186-points per possession while the Pacers rank 9th at 1.157PPP. The big difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. Memphis ranks 7th in DEFF allowing 1.113PPP, the Pacers rank 22nd allowing 1.153PPP. Memphis allows the 3rd lowest FG% in the league overall and has the 5th best 3PT% D. Indiana ranks 20th in opponents FG%, 12th in 3PT% defense. No team in the NBA has had a better record since the start of last season than Memphis when playing non-conference games. The Grizzlies are 34-17 ATS or 66.7% against the East since the start of the 2023-24 season. Indiana has a 23-25-2 ATS record against the West in that same time frame. Take Memphis is this one.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves - OKC played poorly for the majority of the game against the Heat on Wednesday night but battled back for a home win over the Heat. Chet Holmgren didn't play rest reasons and Alex Caruso playing sparingly. One of the Thunders greatest attributes is their depth as they bring guys off the bench and don't skip a beat. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury and they played a very short rotation against the Bucks on Wednesday with three starters all out. The Thunder are 8-2 SU when playing without rest this season with an average plus/minus of +9.3ppg. Minnesota is 4-4 SU without rest +4.3ppg. As a home dog the Wolves have just 1 ATS win in three attempts. OKC is a regular road favorite and a moneymaking 12-8-2 ATS as an away favorite +11.1ppg. The Thunder have a winning record against the West, Minnesota has a losing record. OKC has a big advantage offensively with the 6th best Offensive Net rating compared to the Wolves 14th. The Thunder are 1st in Defensive Net rating the Wolves are 6th. We like the visitor in this one.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors +7 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This bet was scheduled back on December 11th when the Rockets beat the Warriors in an UGLY game that ended with a controversial call against GST which awarded the Rockets two game-winning FT’s. The Rockets were at home in that contest and had Fred VanVleet in the lineup and were favored by -3-points. The Warriors did not have Jimmy Butler on the roster who has fit in perfectly with Golden State. Both teams played last night so neither has rest advantage. These two teams have similar offensive and defensive Net ratings with the Rockets holding a slight advantage in both as far as season statistics go. It’s a very small sample size, but with Butler in the lineup the Warriors have the 6th best Net rating differential in the NBA at +11.0. Golden State is 20-14 ATS as a road dog dating back to the start of last season and they have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Rockets. With this line inflated we will grab the value with Golden State.

ASA play on OVER 218 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8pm ET - This line is extremely light in our opinion, and we will gladly step in with an OVER wager. The Thunder are going to get to 120+ by themselves in this game so we need the Heat to top 100. Granted, the Heat managed just 86 and 85 points in their last two games, but Herro and Jaquez missed their last game against the Celtics. Those two players were out with an illness, so I’d expect both back for this game. OKC is coming off a remarkable shooting night against the Pelicans where they made 49/95 FG’s overall and 27/55 3PT’ers in scoring 137 points. The last 11 games involving the Thunder have finished with 221+ points. 16 of their last seventeen games have finished with 220 or more points. OKC has the 6th best Offensive Net rating in the league and rank 4th in scoring at 118.2ppg for the season. In their last 11 games the Thunder are averaging 125.8ppg. Miami ranks 11th in Defensive Net rating for the season but have slipped dramatically in their last 10 games, falling to 18th. The Heat were dealing with a ton of distractions with the Jimmy Butler saga and can now move on with their current roster which now includes Andrew Wiggins. Miami is 6th in the NBA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. Even though the Thunder defend the 3PT line well we expect the Heat to make enough shots to help push this game OVER the total.

ASA play on NY Knicks -114 at Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - There is no love lost between these two Eastern Conference rivals stemming from last year’s 7-game playoff battle which the Pacers eventually won. The Knicks are coming off a humbling loss on National TV on Saturday to the Celtics and will respond here. New York has several factors in their favor in this situation including a 14-3 SU record this season when coming off a loss. The Knicks average MOV in those games is +9.1ppg. New York is also on an 11-2 SU run when playing on the road. Indiana is coming off a 2-2 SU West coast road trip with wins against the Jazz and Clippers, losses versus the Blazers and Lakers. If we stack these two teams up in Net Ratings, we find the Knicks are 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Net ratings, the Pacers are 10th. Defensively the Knicks rate better with the 16th rated D versus the Pacers 19th rating. Indiana boasts a 14-8 SU home court record, but their average MOV is less than the league average at +2.1. The Knicks will be the more motivated team here off that bad loss and playing with revenge from last season’s playoff series.

ASA play on OVER 234.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Will we see Luka tonight for the Lakers? We expect LeBron James to be back after a “rest” or off game against the Pacers on Saturday. The Lakers offense is clicking right now with scoring outputs of 134, 128, 122, 120 and 124 in their last 5 games. In their 5-game period the Lakers have the 2nd best Offensive Net rating of 125.9 and an EFG% of 63.2%. Another important factor here is that the Lakers are playing at a faster rate in recent games with their small-ball lineups. L.A. should have no problem getting to 130 in this game against a Jazz defense that is last in the league in Net rating at 118.4. In their last 3 games the Jazz have allowed 128, 135 and 130 points against the Warriors, Suns and Clippers. Utah has given up 125+ points in 6 of their last nine games. Utah is 22nd in Offensive Net rating for the season but are on an uptick in their last 5-games ranking 16th. The Lakers did NOT improve their defense in the trade for Luka as AD was their best defender. The Lakers rank 18th in DNR at 113.8 for the season. When these two teams last met in Los Angeles they produced 242 total points and the Over has cashed in 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a game yesterday, a home win against the 76ers but we don’t feel fatigue will be an issue. The Bucks are 14-9 SU since the start of last season when playing without rest with a positive scoring differential. Very rarely are the Bucks a home dog. Milwaukee has been catching points at home just 8 times since the beginning of last season and they’ve won 6 of those with an average +/- of +6.5ppg. Golden State is coming off a huge second half against the Bulls in Jimmy Butlers debut but there is no way this .500 team should be favored by this number on the road. Golden State is 11-13 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of +0.6ppg. The Bucks are 7-1 SU at home in their last eight game and even without Giannis they have enough on this roster to beat this Warriors team outright.

ASA play on OVER 228 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 2 pm ET - No Giannis for this game which is clearly going to hurt the Bucks defense. Milwaukee just played in Atlanta the other night and were Jekyll and Hyde in the two halves of the game. In the 1st half they looked unstoppable offensively with 73 total points. In the second half they couldn’t buy a bucket and managed just 37 total points. We like the tempo or pace of play in that game though as they Bucks attempted 96 field goals. Without Giannis in the lineup, who stops the ball offensively, the Bucks should play fast again today versus the 76ers. Milwaukee is the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48%, the 76ers rank 30th in FG% defense allowing 48.8%. The Bucks are also the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 38.7%, the Sixers rank 24th in 3PT% defense. The 76ers should have their “big 3” on the floor today with Embiid, George and Maxey. Philly is coming off a brutal loss in Detroit, trailing by as many as 34-points in that one. On the season the 76ers don’t have great offensive statistics but in their last 10 games they rank 10th in Offensive Net ratings. Defensively they rank 23rd overall in DNR. In the first two meetings between these two teams, they produced 232 and 233 total points and that was without Paul George and Joel Embiid on the floor for Philadelphia. Granted, no Giannis for Milwaukee but that just means a higher volume of 3’s for the Buck. 76ers 4-1 Over their last 5, Bucks 5-1 Over their last six at home.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 pm ET - The Bucks were dealing with trade distractions swirling around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others which clearly had an effect on their play. With Middleton gone they can move on and focus on building chemistry for a strong playoff run. The Hawks made some moves at the trade deadline and dealt their second-leading scorer, Hunter, to the Cavaliers. Atlanta was dealt a serious blow last month when borderline All-Star Jalen Johnson went down with a season ending injury. The Hawks have gone 1-9 SU in their last ten games getting beat by an average of -8.3ppg. Atlanta will have a tough time scoring here with a depleted lineup and an offense that ranks 27th in Offensive Net rating in their last ten games. Milwaukee shouldn’t have problems scoring here with their 6th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that is 27th in opponents FG% allowed. The Bucks rank 2nd in 3PT%, the Hawks are 26th in 3PT% defense. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season with the two teams splitting wins in Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the two most recent meetings in Atlanta by 11 and 9-points. Milwaukee is accustomed to playing without Middleton who missed a large volume of games with injuries so adapting without him shouldn’t be difficult. Atlanta may suffer in the short term without Hunter in the lineup and the new trade pieces (Levert & Niang) not in the building for this one. Lay the points with the Bucks (check Giannis status before tipoff).

ASA play on OVER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 pm ET - Clearly the Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers was the most significant in the NBA, but the Spurs addition of Fox was a fantastic move by San Antonio. Not only is Fox a great offensive point guard to pair with Wemby, he’s also very good defensively, and fits the Spurs perfectly. San Antonio talked about picking up their tempo with the addition of Fox and that clearly played out in his first game as the Spurs attempted 101 field goals. That was 12 more FGA’s than their season average. San Antonio shot 50% for the game against the Hawks and put up 126-points. The Spurs should put up points against this Charlotte defense that has slipped in Defensive Net rating in their last 5 games. The Hornets have a DNR of 116 in their last 5 games, up from their season number of 113.3. San Antonio is 2nd in pace of play over their last 5 games with a top 15 Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games. Charlotte was very active at the trade deadline and clearly made moves in an effort to rebuild in the future. They should get LaMelo Ball back for tonight’s game who is averaging 28ppg for the season. The Spurs defense has allowed 125 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Both teams like to shoot a lot of 3-pointers so even if the overall FGA’s are down we still have a great chance to cash the Over based on 3-point volume. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play on Denver Nuggets -7.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 9 PM ET - It’s highly unlikely that either of these teams are making a major move before the trade deadline today so we will back the Nuggets with the favorable scheduling in this one. On Monday the Magic looked horrific in a game against the Warriors. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. They played like a completely different team last night in Sacramento, beating the Kings 130-111, shooting well above expectations at 57% for the game. The Magic are now 2-9 SU in their last eleven games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -13.2. Orlando has an EFG% of 47.3% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 11-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -12.1ppg. The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude in Denver. Not only that, this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days so fatigue will be a factor against a Nuggets team accustomed to the altitude. Denver is playing at a very high level right now with 4 straight wins and 8 in their last eleven. If we examine that recent 11-game stretch we find the Nuggets have the best EFG%, 8th best Net Rating with an average +/- of +6.6ppg. Denver is 16-8 SU at home for the season with an average MOV of +6.4ppg. They are 5-1 SU their last five at home +13.3ppg. Denver has some of the best offensive numbers in the NBA, including an Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.193-points per possession. Orlando is 3rd in DEFF but teams have shot well against them as they rank 24th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. The scheduling advantage is the difference here and we like the Nuggets to grab a big home win.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Kings were involved in the NBA-trade-hoopla when they sent All-Star level guard DeAaron Fox to the Spurs and in exchange received Zach LaVine of the Bulls. Fox was putting up 25ppg, 5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 46.9% shooting. LaVine had similar numbers at 24ppg, 4.8rpg and 4.5apg on 51.1% shooting. Honestly the winner in this whole deal was the San Antonio Spurs but the Kings came out OK with LaVine and a bevy of future draft picks. LaVine will be in the lineup tonight with the Kings to face an Orlando team that is really struggling right now. The Magic just faced the Warriors the other night in what might be one of the ugliest NBA games I’ve ever watched. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. The Magic are 1-9 SU in their last ten games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -16.5. Orlando has an EFG% of 45.5% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 10-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -15.3ppg. Sacramento is 5-5 SU their last 10 games but a closer look reveals the five L’s are respectable coming to the Bucks, Nuggets, Knicks, 76ers (playing well right now) and Thunder. All five of those losses also came on the road. Sacramento is coming off a road win most recently over the Timberwolves after shooting 49% overall, 42% from beyond the arc. Even with a .500 record in their last ten games the Kings have the 11th best Net Rating in the league at +1.5. Sacramento has the 14th best EFG% over that 10-game stretch and has shot exceptionally well at home in recent games. The Kings have won 5 in a row on their home court by an average +/- of +8.8ppg. We like the Kings in this one.

ASA play on Miami Heat -3 at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Heat have had plenty of time to adjust to not playing with a star player in Jimmy Butler as he has been suspended while forcing a trade. The Bulls just traded their best player in Zach Lavine and basically got nothing in return to help them this season. Chicago is clearly in tank mode and going to try and build through the draft. The Bulls are also shopping Vet center Nikola Vucevic to other teams which is another sign they’ve called it for the year. Chicago isn’t in the best scheduling situation here after playing 3 straight road games and also being on the road for 6 of their last eight games. They are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and 1-5 SU their last six at home. Chicago has one of the worst home records in the NBA at 9-16 SU with an average loss margin of -3.6ppg. Miami doesn’t have a great overall road record this season at 11-13 SU, but they are a respectable 6-4 SU as a road chalk with an average MOV of +3.3 in those games. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of Offensive Efficiency with both averaging about 1.128-points per possession. The big separator comes defensively with the Bulls ranking 24th in Defensive Efficiency, the Heat rank 10th in DEFF. Miami has won 3 of their last four games and have moved on from the Jimmy Butler distraction. The Bulls are wondering who’s next to go from the locker room. Lay the points with the Heat!

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of the mid-season Tournament which the Bucks won 97-81 as a 5-point underdog. The Thunder were favored by -5-points on a neutral court in Vegas and are now only laying a slightly higher number at home. OKC is 20-3 SU at home this season with an average plus/minus of +14ppg. Last season the Thunder were 36-10 SU at home with an average point differential of +12.3ppg. OKC has the best EDIFF or Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +12.3, the Bucks number is 2.5. Milwaukee is 9-13 SU away from home this season after going 18-25 SU on the road last season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU their last five road games with the only win coming at Utah. They were beaten by 34 in New York, lost by 10 at the Clippers, won in Utah, lost at Portland by 13 and the Spurs by 26. The Thunder will be rested for this game while the Bucks are coming off a big game in Milwaukee against the Grizzlies last night. The Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS without rest this season. OKC has a little extra motivation tonight and win by double-digits here.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - The Spurs pulled off a blockbuster trade to land DeAaron Fox of the Kings without giving up anyone and now have a roster capable of making noise in the playoffs this season, and a title contender next season. San Antonio made a masterful trade to bring in the young dynamic Fox to pair with Wemby, Castle, Johnson and Sochan. This roster is now built to be a Championship contender for years to come if they can keep it together. Tonight, we like the Spurs and the points against a Grizzlies team coming off a huge win in Milwaukee last night. Memphis is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch which featured the Knicks in New York, home against the Rockets, then in Milwaukee last night. The Grizz are also shorthanded with Ja Morant sidelined with a shoulder injury. San Antonio is playing with double-revenge here as they lost twice to the Grizzlies in mid-January by 14 and 28-points. The Spurs were without Wembanyama in their last game, a loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, but he should be back for this game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-13 SU when playing without rest since the start of last season with an average point differential of minus -1.3ppg. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA when playing with a rest advantage with a 9-2 ATS record and an average MOV of +8.4ppg. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA play on OVER 223 Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, 6 PM ET - The 76ers have found their groove in recent weeks with 5-straight covers and several impressive wins including a victory against the Cavs, Lakers and Kings. The offense has been much better with 132, 109, 118, 117 and 134 points scored in their last four games. Philadelphia has the 4th best EFG% over the last 5-games played and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in that span of games. The Sixers defense has been the worst in the NBA over the past 10 games with a Net Rating of 121.7. Games involving this Philly team have finished with 220+ points in 7 of the last ten. Boston is going to score points today with an offense that is 3rd overall in Net Rating for the season and putting up the 5th most points per game at 117.3ppg. Boston games have finished with 223 or more points in 7 of their last eight games. Boston’s 8th best EFG% at 55.5% should find plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is last in the NBA in opponents FG% allowed. We expect this game to get into the 230’s.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10 PM ET - The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder. Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1. Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively. Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5. Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers -8.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 5:10 PM ET - This line opened at Pacers -4.5 and has been bet up to the current number but we still have value on Indiana at -8. Atlanta has a depleted roster right now with several starters out and they are coming off a loss two nights ago in Cleveland. This is also their 4th game since Jan 27th which included a back-to-back set on the 27/28th. Atlanta has lost 7 straight games with three road losses by 9, 8 and 22-points. Indiana was just favored by -6-points at home against a Pistons team that is playing well right now so this line isn’t as high as you might think. The Pacers have won 5 of their last six at home with the lone loss coming to the Cavaliers. The five home wins in that stretch of games came by 18, 16, 12, 13 and 14-points. In each teams last 7 games the Pacers have the 7th best Net Rating in the NBA, the Hawks have the 27th worst. Indiana has won and covered 4 in a row against the Hawks and the last time they met on this court the Pacers hung 157 on this Hawks defense.

ASA play on Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are playing lights out basketball right now with 5 straight wins and victories in 7 of their last eight games. The only loss in that stretch of games was in Milwaukee, who is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. In fact, Toronto has the 2nd best Net Rating in the league over their last five games at +14.6. Only the Knicks have been better in that span of games at +15.6. The Bulls are playing poorly as their entire team gets mentioned in trades daily and it’s clearly had an impact on their play. Chicago is 2-8 SU in their last ten games and has the 5th worst Net Rating in that stretch of games at -8.8. All but one of the Bulls last eight losses have come by more than tonight’s point spread. Chicago’s defense is near the bottom of the league in several categories including Defensive Efficiency as they allow 1.161PPP, 23rd most in the NBA. The Raptors don’t have great season statistics, but again, in their last five games they have the 2nd best DEFF in the league allowing 1.057PPP. The trade distractions for the Bulls is apparent and the Raptors are playing at a peak level right now. Lay the points with Toronto.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239 Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively in recent games and will have a tough time scoring tonight against this Cavs defense that is 8th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.121PPP. In their most recent 5-games the Hawks have the worst Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 95.8. Atlanta has scored less than 97 points in 3 straight games and have failed to top 110 in 6 of their last eight games. What the Hawks have done well in their last five games is play defense. Atlanta has the 2nd best Defensive Net rating in the league in that stretch of games at 97.0. Cleveland is clearly one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 1st in Offensive Efficiency at 1.218PPP. The Cavs are coming off a game in Miami last night and have several rotational players out for this game which will magnify the fatigue factor. The Under is 4-2 in this series dating back to the start of last season with only 2 of those games finished with more points than tonight’s number. We like UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -120 at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 pm ET - This line opened with the Suns favored at home yet swung to the Wolves favored despite more public money and tickets being placed on Phoenix. That immediately tells us the T’Wolves are worth a look. Digging deeper we like how the Wolves are trending compared to the Suns recent misleading success. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games and for the most part, the games have come against upper echelon teams. The Wolves have won three straight and even their losses have been close against Memphis, Cleveland, Golden State and Memphis again. In the most recent 10 games for the Wolves, they have an average +/- of +2.7ppg which is higher than it should be considering they have 4 losses. The Timberwolves have the 8th best Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, 6th best Defensive Net rating. Phoenix on the other hand has a misleading 8-2 SU record in their last ten games. Only 1 of the Suns last 8 wins have come against a team with an above .500 record. Against weak competition the Suns have a Net rating of +4.2 in their last ten games, 10th offensively, 13th defensively. The T’Wolves have won 5 straight against the Suns including a win early in the season 120-117. The biggest separator in this game will be defensive. The Wolves rank 7th in Defensive Efficiency rating and have been getting better as the season has gone on. The Suns in comparison rank 24th in DEFF allowing 1.166-points per possession.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The Spurs just spent some time overseas in France for a two-game set with the Pacers. After that distraction and travel we will bet against them here versus the Clippers. L.A. is coming off a 109-111 loss on Monday night to the Suns and we expect them to bounce back here with a resounding road win. The Clippers are 11-8 ATS when coming off a loss with a positive differential of +1.2ppg. As a road favorite this season the Clippers are 3-3 ATS but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +9.7ppg. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -6.4ppg. The Spurs have faced the Grizzlies twice, Denver and this Clippers team in their last four true home games. They were beaten by 28 and 14 by Memphis, lost by 1-point to Denver and embarrassed this Clippers club by 36 on this court. Kawhi Leonard did not play in the most recent meeting and should be available this time around. Looking at the Clippers 10 most recent games we find they have the 3rd best Net Rating differential in the NBA. In that same 10 games the Spurs rank 25th. The Spurs offense will have a tough time against this Clippers defense that is 3rd in opponents FG%, 3rd in 3PT% and give up the 3rd fewest points per gam3e at 106.9. Before getting throttled in the most recent meeting the Clippers had won 8 in a row against the Spurs, four of which were in San Antonio, all by more than this spread.

ASAwins play on OVER 228 Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers – 7:40 pm ET - Sacramento is averaging 120.7ppg in their last ten games, 121.3ppg in their last fifteen. The Kings have played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the 6th most efficient offense over that span of games. The Kings have scored 120 plus in 9 of their last twelve games and should have a problem getting to that number against a 76ers defense that is 29th in Defensive Net rating in their last 15 games. The Kings only managed 110 points against the Net last game out after getting off to a very slow start in the first two quarters. Sacramento played much slower than normal with 82 field goal attempts, 9.1 less than their season average of 91.1 FGA’s per game. Sacramento is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6% and should get plenty of wide-open looks against a Sixers D that ranks 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia is coming off a game last night against the Lakers with Maxey scoring 43 in their 118-104 win. The Sixers are 5-2 Over when playing without rest and 11-4-2 Over in non-Conference games this season. The Kings are in the bottom half of the league in Defensive Efficiency rating for the season allowing 1.142-points per possession so Philly should do some damage on that end of the court too. We like OVER in this one.

ASA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, 7:40PM ET - These two teams are playing well right now, much better than their overall records of 12-34 (Pelicans) and 13-32 (Raptors). New Orleans has won 4 of their last six games, while the Raptors have hit 5 of their last six games. You won’t find either of these teams in the upper echelon of the NBA in terms of Offensive Efficiency for the season, but you will find they have been much better in that regard recently. New Orleans is 14th in OEFF in their last five games, the Raptors are 18th. Both of these teams are averaging better than 1.141-points per possession in that five-game span. The other big factor in this Over wager is the pace of play by each team. The Raptors are 9th in pace on the season and are played at a faster tempo in their most recent five games. The Pelicans are 15th in pace for the year, but currently the 4th fastest paced in the league over the last five games. A big reason for both teams resurgence is their overall team health as both have gotten key players back from injury. Games involving the Pelicans have gone over this number in 7 of the last eight games. Toronto is 13-10 to the Over at home this season with those games averaging 228 total points. With two of the worst defenses in the NBA squaring off we expect a ton of points in this one.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 at Portland Trailblazers, 6pm et - The Blazers four game winning streak is a bit of fool’s gold as it came against four teams with a combined 77-102 SU record and each team has some current ‘issues’. In that stretch of games, the Blazers beat the Heat and Bulls who are in the middle of several trade rumors, Orlando who is adjusting to players coming back and Charlotte without LaMelo Ball. Porland returns home where they are 9-12 SU with a negative point differential of -9.1ppg. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Mavericks, so we expect them to bounce back here with a little more energy and focus than normal. The Thunder are 41-34 ATS going back to 2022 when coming off a SU loss. OKC is 16-5 SU, 12-7-2 ATS this season on the road with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.1ppg. Recently the Blazers lost at home by 22 to the Rockets (-11) and by 29 to the Clippers (-7). OKC has won 14 straight meetings with the Blazers including a win on this court in early November by 23-points. We typically don’t like laying double-digits on the road but will make an exception here.

ASA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30pm et - The Clippers and Bucks got off to poor starts this season, but both have turned things around with Milwaukee winning 5 straight and 8 of ten, while the Clippers are 5-2 SU their last seven. LA has also won 16 of their last twenty home games, 6 of their last eight in their own building by an average of +15ppg. When it comes to overall season statistics these teams are identical in terms of Net Rating at +3.3. At home the Clippers Net Rating is +7.9, the 5th highest number in the NBA, the Bucks road Net Rating is -2.4 or 17th. The biggest advantage for the Clippers in this matchup is on the boards. LA is the 6th best rebounding team in the NBA the Bucks are 14th. Milwaukee is last in the NBA in offensive rebounding but 1st in defensive rebounding. The Clippers though average just 3 less defensive rebounds per game than Milwaukee so there isn’t much of an advantage there. The Bucks are in the center of trade rumors which has to be a distraction for several players including key contributors in Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others. Of the Bucks 8 road wins this season only two have come against teams with winning records. Lay the points here with the Clippers.

ASA play on LA Lakers -115 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:40pm et. The Lakers are clearly the better team in this match up and have the best player on the court in AD. His supporting cast is much better than the make-shift lineup the Warriors have around Steph Curry. On the season, the Lakers rate 20th in overall Net Rating at -1.6, whereas the Warriors check in at 13th with a 0.1. In each teams last ten games the Lakers have the 10th best Net Rating at +2.2, the Warriors are 18th at -7.4. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games including an impressive win over the Celtics. Golden State is 3-2 SU their last five games and were blown out by 40 versus the Celtics in that stretch of games. A closer look at each teams last five games we find the Warriors have the edge in offensive efficiency rating but it’s the Lakers who hold a massive advantage in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.072-points per possession compared to GST who is allowing 1.191PPP. The Lakers beat this Warriors team on this court the last time they met and that was with Anthony Davis playing just 7 minutes as he left early with an ankle injury. That was a close 2-point Lakers win, this time it won’t be as close.

ASA play on OVER 242 New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - This is an extremely high number, but we do expect both teams to get into the mid-120’s and push this game Over the total. These two teams met in late December and combined for 256 total points so we know they can get there. New Orleans is getting some players back and it’s starting to show in their results as they’ve won 4 in a row and 5 of six. They have scored 119 or more points in 6 straight games. A closer look at those last six games we find the Pelicans are playing fast with the 6th highest possession rate in the league. They have been more efficient also with the 6th best offensive rating. Memphis has been playing equally as well with 4 straight wins and 5 of six. The Grizzlies put up points on everyone. Memphis has scored 118 or more in 5 of the last six games and is currently the highest scoring team in the NBA at 123.3ppg. On the season the Grizz are 5th in FG%, 2nd in FG attempts and 8th in 3PT%. Memphis is 5th in offensive rating and EFG% and play at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.91 possessions per game. With both teams willing to play fast, unless both shoot horribly this game should go over rather easily.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright.

ASA play on UNDER 230.5 Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs 2 pm ET (Played in Paris France) - This is a specialty gimmick game by the NBA to broaden its reach in Europe and is being played in Paris, France. So essentially a home game for Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs. This is an interesting situation for both teams with the extended travel and we don’t feel it’s going to help with their offensive efficiency. We ran the season statistics through our math model and it projected 226.3 total points being scored. When we run the numbers in the last five games for each team it settles in at 225.4 total points. The Spurs recently played a 2-game set with the Grizzlies (4th fastest) and had a game against the Bucks who rank 8th in pace of play. Even with those games factored into the equation we still come up with a lower number than the oddsmakers. The Pacers were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago at 101.7 possessions per game, this season they are 10th at 99.4. The Spurs are 18th in pace this season and offensive efficiency rating while scoring just 111.6ppg. Indiana is top 10 in offensive efficiency and scoring 115.2ppg. In this environment we don't see these two teams combining for more than 225 total points.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm et - We have a solid recent comparable game for the 76ers in this situation as they just played in Milwaukee on Sunday with the game going Over 226.5 in that game. That game played out as projections suggested in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency and pace of play. Tonight, the 76ers face a Nuggets team that is better offensively than the Bucks, plays faster and is worse defensively and the O/U is only 3-points higher. The Nuggets are average in terms of Defensive Efficiency ranking 14th at 1.138-points per possession allowed. The 76ers are 20th giving up 1.146PPP. Philadelphia is the slowest paced team in the league but the Nuggets will force them to play faster with their 5th fastest pace in the NBA. The 76ers have allowed 115 or more points in 5 of their last six games with the Over cashing in four of those six. Denver has scored 118+ in 5 of their last nine games and the four that they didn’t reach that number came against defenses ranked 12th or better, which is not the case with Philadelphia. The Sixers have injury concerns tonight with Embiid out and several starters including Paul George questionable but we still like them to get to 110+ in this game. Denver averages 120ppg at home so we expect them to get to that number here too. When these two teams have played out of Conference this season, they have a combined 22-6-2 OVER record.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points.

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - This is a fill in game and both teams are in a tough scheduling situation having played last night. The Clippers beat their intown rivals the Lakers 116-102, the Bulls lost in Portland 102-113. Chicago has seen inflated O/U numbers in recent weeks which has given value to the Under bettors out there paying attention. The Bulls have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight games now and have played at a slower pace, been better defensively and worse offensively. Most important is the Bulls pace of play which has dipped, and their defensive efficiency has gone from 1.163PPP to 1.144PPP. The Clippers hired Jeff VanGundy in the offseason and their defense has steadily improved throughout the season. LA currently allows 1.081PPP which is second in the NBA only behind OKC. It’s a good thing their defense has been that good because they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Clippers have stayed Under their total in 6 of their last nine games and only two of their last ten games have finished with more than 227 total points. The last time these two teams met on this floor they produced 214 total points. We expect another game in that range today.

ASA play on OVER 219.5 San Antonio at Miami Heat, 3:10 PM ET - The total on this game opened 222, was bet down below 220, but is not trending back up. The betting indicators are telling us this line could go higher yet so we recommend a wager sooner than later. In breaking down the Offensive and Defensive efficiencies for both teams along with pace of play we find the numbers suggest an ‘average’ game in the NBA. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226 total points. Miami is dealing with the Jimmy Butler distraction, and it showed defensively in their last game when they allowed 133 points to Denver. San Antonio is coming off a two-game set against the Grizzlies where they allowed 129 and 140 points. The last seven games involving the Spurs has finished with more total points than this number. Miami has been known for their defense for years under coach Spoelstra but this season they are hovering just above league average in most key categories. They are 12th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. The Spurs are 11th in opponents FG%, 9th in 3PT% allowed but give up the 14th most points per game at 112.7ppg.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -125 vs Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This number reflects just how well the Kings have been playing since the firing of head coach Mike Brown. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight games with the 4th best Net rating in that stretch of games. Milwaukee has been up-an-down this season as evidenced by their four most recent games, going 3-0, then losing by 34 to the Knicks. Off that disastrous loss we predict the Bucks to bounce back at home and win this game by margin. The Bucks are 11-7 SU at home this season with a positive Net rating of +4.0. The Kings have a 10-7 SU road record, but the majority of their wins have come at the expense of teams with losing records. It’s not as good as you would expect, but the Bucks are 28-24 SU, +2.3ppg coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. The big edge the Bucks have in this game is their 2nd ranked 3PT% shooting (38.7%) going up against the Kings defense that is 27th in 3PT% defense allowing 37.6%. This is a series the Bucks have dominated in recent history with a 9-1 SU run and we are betting they get a home win tonight by 6+ points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings.

ASA NBA PLAY UNDER 221 Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Mavs will be without Luka and Kyrie again tonight which greatly diminishes their scoring numbers. For the entire season the Mavs have the 6th best offensive net rating in the NBA at 115.6. In their last 7 games without Luka Doncic, they fall to 24th in ONR and now they don’t have Kyrie Irving and his 24ppg to rely on. Dallas did score 118 last time out against the Lakers but the Mavs shot well above season standards, making 45 of 86 field goal attempts or 52%. They also hit 18/38 3PT’s or 47%. Portland is coming off a game in New Orleans last night, a 119-100 win. The Blazers also had an extremely hot shooting night of 55% overall and 36% from Deep. Those numbers were much higher than their season averages of 45.1% and 33.7%. Don’t expect those statistics again tonight against a Mavs team that holds opponents to the 9th lowest FG% in the NBA. The Blazers defense is bottom 10 in terms of defensive net rating for the season, but in their last four games they’ve been much better, ranking 10th. With Luka in the lineup the Mavs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season. Without him on the floor they are average in tempo. The Blazers prefer to play slower overall for the season and have slowed even more in their last five games. These two teams met on Dec 28th and the O/U number was 225. They combined to score 248. Why have the oddsmakers established a much lower number for this game after that game was so high scoring? That has us on Under here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games. Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those games the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games. While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th. We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th. Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors -125 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - This is a horrible scheduling situation for the 76ers who are off a game last night against the Kings. They are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 5th in nine days. All five of these games have been played on the road which makes it that much tougher. Meanwhile, the Warriors are off an embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers 96-113 on Monday. Golden State is well rested here and should be eager to atone for their last home game. When playing without rest the 76ers are 8-9 ATS their last 17, Golden State is 10-7 ATS their last 17 when playing with a rest advantage. Philadelphia is one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 44.7% (25th) and make the least amount of field goals per game at 38.2. They shoot just 33.8% from beyond the Arc which ranks 28th. They will have a hard time scoring against this Warriors D that is 4th in opponents FG%, 6th in 3PT% D and give up the 9th lowest points per game in the NBA. Golden State doesn’t have great offensive numbers themselves at 44.3% shooting and 35.9% 3PT% but Philly has one of the worst FG% defenses overall and rank 15th in Defensive Efficiency. The Warriors have struggled of late which has forced the oddsmakers to set this line lower than it should be. This is a perfect “buy low” spot on the Warriors and, in fact, the line has moved so low here ATS that the money line at -125 is now a top choice option here as of overnight hours heading into Thursday.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Memphis wants to play fast and is the highest possession team in the NBA. Phoenix on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking 26th in pace of play. The current problem for the Grizzlies is they have 9 players on their injured list, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, three of their top six scorers. The lack of depth showed in the Grizzlies last game against the Thunder as they managed just 106 points on 38% shooting. The Suns have had their own scoring issues of late with four straight games of 110 or less points. The lack of scoring has led to 4 straight Unders for the Suns and 6 of the last seven. Not to mention, the Suns will have a tough time here against a Memphis defense that allows the 4th fewest points per possession in the NBA. In three meetings last season these two teams produced 236, 225 and 199 total points. We like a slower paced and lower scoring game here.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 225.8 total points per game. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will only be essentially +6-points more than average. We feel it’s going to be much higher than that for a few specific reasons, mainly because of the pace of play. Memphis is the fastest paced team in the league at 105.2 possessions per game. The Thunder at 8th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. The Grizzlies average the 3rd most fastbreak points per game, the Thunder rank 9th. Memphis is the highest scoring team in the NBA in terms of points in the paint, the Thunder are 12th. The Grizz are the 5th most efficient offense, the Thunder are 8th. Granted, both are exceptional defensively, but pace and great shooting will counter the great defenses. These two teams attempt the 10th and 12th most 3-pointers per game and rank 2nd and 3rd in FG attempts. Based on comparable opponents, the betting markets and tempo we expect a higher scoring game Sunday. *Yes, we know Ja Morant is not playing tonight.*

ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - Looking at the Clippers recent stretch of games we see they were recently a +3-point home dog to Houston, Minnesota and Denver. In the games against the Rockets and Wolves the Clippers were without key pieces as Powell and Harden each missed a game. The Clippers lost both. Prior to those two games, with Powell/Harden they beat the Nuggets at home 126-122. The reason we bring that up is this: The Warriors aren’t as good as those three teams, yet are favored on the road in Los Angeles? Golden State is coming off an emotional Christmas Day loss to the Lakers and slipped to 1-5 SU in their last six games. For the season the Clippers rank 11th in Offensive Efficiency, the Warriors rank 13th. Defensively, the Clippers hold the edge with the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating compared to the Warriors 8th ranking. When we look exclusively at the last 10 games of each team we see the Clippers have the better overall Net Rating of +1.5 compared to the Warriors NR of -6.7. Golden State lives and dies by the 3-pointer (12th in 3PT%), but the Clippers defend the arc as well as anyone in the league allowing 34.3% (4th). The Clippers have won 5 straight in the rivalry including two games this season. We expect them to make it 3 in a row on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This will be the third meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulls winning both clashes thus far. Some bettors might want to back the Hawks with revenge but not us. This is a game where the Hawks have a hard time matching up against the Bulls. Chicago’s two wins against Atlanta have come by 12 and 14-points. Chicago has won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last six. If we look at each teams last five games we find the Bulls have a Net Rating of -4.5 compared to the Hawks NR of -1.5. Chicago has won 3 straight on the road and have a Net scoring differential of -0.5ppg when away from home which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta is 8-7 SU at home this season with the 19th worst average scoring margin of -2.6ppg. As a home favorite the Hawks are 2-7 ATS with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Neither team is good defensively and the Bulls shoot it better at 46.8% overall (10th) and 37% (9th) from deep compared to the Hawks who shoot 46.3% (15th) and 35% (21st). Grab the points and the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are always a tricky team to bet on because you never know if LeBron/AD is going to play or not. LeBron was away from the team recently for unknown reasons, other than the fallout from his Diddy party comments on social media. With the TV lights on LBJ will be in the lineup tonight against the Warriors. Both teams are off losses as the Lakers lost to the Pistons at home, the Warriors lost to the Pacers. Golden State and Los Angeles both have really good results off a loss so that is basically a wash. If we look at the full season stats we see the Warriors have a very slight edge in Offensive Efficiency, and a significant advantage in Defensive Efficiency. If we look at each team's last five games though we see the opposite with the OEFF numbers being about even, but the Lakers defense over the last five games has been outstanding and the Warriors has not. Golden State currently ranks 26th in DEFF over the last 5 games allowing 1.183PPP, the Lakers D has allowed 1.037PPP in that same stretch of games. We can’t trust a Warriors defense that gave up 143+ points in two consecutive games in the past two weeks. As an NBA fan, enjoy what might be the last meaningful game between two future Hall of Famers in LeBron and Steph Curry.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +6 at Denver Nuggets – 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Suns here who last played on Thursday night at home against the Pistons. Phoenix lost that game and the game previous to Indiana, both at home. Kevin Durant certainly did everything in his power to carry this Suns team with 37pts, 10rebs and 6ass against the Pacers and 43pts, 5rebs and 6ass against the Pistons. Phoenix is a respectable 5-7 SU on the road this season. Denver is coming off a game Sunday at New Orleans and played two other road games at the Kings and Blazers prior to that game. Denver has been very good off a loss since the start of last season with a 13-4 SU record and an average MOV of +6.5ppg. Phoenix though is 20-6 SU since the start of last year with an average+/- of +7.7ppg. Phoenix has certainly underachieved this season, but the same can be said about the Nuggets. Denver has a Net rating of +2.4 while the Suns are -0.9. The Suns beat this Nuggets team two out of three meetings last season with both wins coming in Denver. KD will keep the Suns in that entire game and cover the spread in the process.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami.