ASA NBA play on OVER 221.5 Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, 10pm ET - If you are a numbers bettor like us then you realize the value in this O/U and will be on the OVER when the Warriors take on the Clippers. These two teams met on the final day of the regular season and the O/U posted was 228.5. The game finished with 225 total points being scored. There were 175 field goal attempts in the game, slightly lower than league average but enough to get to 225 total points. The Warriors didn’t shoot particularly well at 42% overall and 28% from deep. The Clippers were around their season averages of 47% and 36%. Golden State got some much needed help offensively with the return of Steph Curry who has averaged 20ppg in his last four games. They are also getting some scoring from Porzingis who has been limited for most of the season. The Warriors have scored 110 or more points in 6 of their last seven games. Golden State is not the defensive team they once were ranked 16th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.156-points per possession this season. The Clippers could be a dangerous team in the postseason with Kawhi Leonard still able to play at an elite level. They have had time to work Darious Garland into the system along with Mathurin who both came over at the trade deadline. The Clippers have the 10th best offensive net rating since the All-Star break, but rank 17th in defensive net rating. One popular Sports Book that is taking in money and tickets on the UNDER has moved their line up significantly which tells me the OVER is the call.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -5.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - I really think the Warriors window has closed. Kerr isn’t the coach he once was and father time has caught up to Draymond Green and Steph Curry. If we look at what these teams have done since the All-Star break we find the Clippers have a 16-12 SU record and a +3.9 Net differential. Golden State in that same time frame is 8-19 SU with a -5.3 Net rating. To put that into perspective, based on Net rating since the AS Break the Warriors are the 10th worst team in the NBA and have a lower rating than the Pelicans. LA has dominated this rivalry in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings with the GST. You’ll be surprised to know, the Clippers are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA overall and 7th in 3PT%. The Warriors defense ranks 23rd in FG% defense and 19th in 3PT% D. Conversely, the Warriors shoot just 46.1% on the season (24th) and 35.6% from beyond the arc, 20th. The Clippers are 14th in FG% defense, 22nd in 3PT% but clearly the Warriors can’t take advantage. LA is better on both ends of the court and we expect the home team to win by double digits in this one.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - Yes, the Heat and Spoelstra have a clear advantage on the bench, but this game is going to be won on the floor and quite frankly, the Hornets have been the much better team since the All-Star break. Charlotte is 18-9 SU since the break with the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +11.1, only behind the Spurs. In that same time frame the Heat have a Net rating of +2.2 which rates 16th. Charlotte has an average plus/minus at home of +10.5ppg at home since the AS break with an overall record of 9-6. Miami finished the season with a 4-8 road run and an average loss margin of -4.0ppg. Charlotte was just favored by -5.5 points at home against the Pistons and were favored by -2.5 points in late March against Boston, -2 versus the Knicks. Those three teams are considerably better than this Heat team that has underperformed all season long. Charlotte is the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the league and the Heat struggle defending the arc with the 17th worst 3PT% D in the NBA. Lastly, the Heat/Spoelstra are getting a lot of attention in this matchup which has impacted the betting markets in favor of Miami, yet the Books refuse to move their number. It’s the changing of the guard and the Hornets come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -10.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:40pm ET - It’s the last day of the regular season which can be tough to navigate without knowing exactly who or who isn’t going to play. In this game we know the Nuggets are sitting everyone that matters. They have their top 9 players listed as out for today’s game and will end up the #4 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs don’t technically have anything to play for either, other than sending a message to Denver who they’ll likely face in the second round of the playoffs. San Antonio is young and has a deep roster so even when they sit starters later in this game it shouldn’t matter as we’re betting they have a big lead at that point and the guys off the bench are much better than Denver’s reserves. In fact, the Spurs have the #1 bench rating in the league at +6.6, the Nuggets are 15th at -3.8. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets are 23-3 SU with the best average +/- in the league at +13.5ppg. The Nuggets are 17-8 SU in that same time frame and plus +6.8ppg. San Antonio has won 13 or their last fourteen home games by an average of +12.8ppg. Denver hasn’t been great away from home lately with a 5-6 SU record in their last eleven road games. Given who’s playing we expect this to be a very ugly game for Denver from start to finish. Lay it with the Spurs.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 243 Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - Both teams have incentives to win this game to potentially improve their standing in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding, but health/rest is nearly as important. In other words, we should have a ‘playoff like’ atmosphere AND could get shortened rotations for the starters, both factors clearly favor a lower scoring game. In the season series these two teams have scored 225, 242 and 237 total points. In the game that reached 242 total points the Hawks had an exceptional shooting night from deep hitting on 21/50 3-point attempts (42%). That number is significantly higher than their season average of 37.1% and what the Heat allow on the season at 35.8%. Both teams have played fast all season long, but their pace numbers have been slowing in recent weeks. Both teams are near average on the season in offensive efficiency with the Heat ranking 13th in offensive efficiency, the Hawks are 14th. Both are better defensively with the Hawks ranking 8th in dEFF, the Heat rank 12th. Given the history of this series with 10 straight games finishing with 242 or less points and the playoff intensity, we expect a lower scoring affair in the low 230’s. Our model is projecting 232.3. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225.5 LA Clippers at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10pm ET - There have been several games in the final stretch of this regular season that have had playoff like intensity which has led to some lower scoring games. Tonight we have a situation where these two teams are fighting for the 8 seed in the Western Conference with the Clippers 41-39 SU on the season, the Blazers are 40-40 SU. The Clippers are 2-1 in the season series which would be the tiebreaker between these two teams. We won’t get involved in a Side but we do like the Total UNDER the number. The Blazer/Clippers just played in L.A. on March 31st and produced 218 total points. The O/U on that game was 225.5 which makes tonight’s number a bargain considering the playoff atmosphere. In fact, all three meetings this season have resulted in less than 222 total points. Since the All-Star break the Blazers have been locked in defensively with the 4th best defensive net rating in the NBA at 109.4. The Clippers are 14th at 114. In their last 10 games the Clippers D has been even better with a DNR of 112.2, tied for 10th best. The Clippers just allowed 128-points to the Thunder in their most recent game so expect a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. Prior to that game the Clippers had allowed 114 or less points in 7 of eight games, 103 or less in 3 of those games. Portland gave up 112 in their last game at San Antonio but if you look at their last 18 games they’ve held 15 of those teams to 114 or less points and 11 of those teams didn’t reach 110. The Blazers have a really strong UNDER record at home this season of 24-15 and they’ve played 12 of 16 divisional games UNDER as well. They’ll play at a slower pace here as they are trending down in tempo in their last 5 games. The Clippers are 21st in pace of play in their last 5 games as well so this should be a deliberate, defensive showdown. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7:10pm ET - The Pistons literally have nothing to play for. They have locked up the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and can’t catch OKC or San Antonio in the West for hosting the Finals. Charlotte on the other hand has everything to play for as they would love to climb up the standing of the play in games and potentially get a home game plus play one game to get in and not two. Detroit will rest starters in this game and we doubt we’ll see much of Cunningham with him just returning to action after a collapsed lung. Let’s not forget, the Hornets have been one of the best teams in the league since the All-Star break with a 17-8 SU record and the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league at +12.2. Only the Spurs and Thunder have played better since the break. Charlotte has won 9 of their last fourteen home games, Detroit is 8-6 SU on the road since the AS game. The Hornets are coming off a loss in Boston most recently which also puts them in a favorable situation. Charlotte is 23-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average MOV of +3.8ppg. Detroit is off a big win over the Bucks and we doubt they’ll show the Hornets much in this game considering they may face them in the 1st round of the playoffs. This is also the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these teams and is a double revenge spot for the Hornets. The Pistons won the first two meetings by a combined 32 points and Charlotte is out for payback. Playing with double revenge the Hornets get the call in this one! We will lay it here with Charlotte.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - The Celtics are going to rest Derrick White and Jaylen Brown on Thursday against the Knicks. Yes, the C’s are deep but we’re not sure they’re going to be able to beat the Knicks down 2 starters. The Knicks have a little more incentive to win here so they maintain the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been great on the road this season with a 26-14 SU record, but the Knicks have been fantastic at home with a 28-9 record and an average margin of victory of +10.4ppg. New York has a slightly better record in division games at 12-3 SU compared to the Celtics 10-5 SU mark. The home team has covered 5 of the last six meetings between these two rivals, 2 of three this season. New York nearly lost at home the other night to the Hawks and should play with a greater sense of urgency in this divisional showdown. The Celtics look like they are more concerned with health heading into the postseason. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The line on this game is the ‘tell’ as Cleveland should be a bigger favorite at home over the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking to bait some bettors into backing the Cavs at a cheap price but we won’t bite. The facts of the matter are this. Cleveland is in a very favorable position in the Eastern Conference right now sitting 4th in the standings and hosting in the 1st round (potentially this same Hawks team). They trail the Knicks by 1 game but don’t want to move up so they can avoid the Celtics in the second round and play the Cunningham-less Pistons to try and make the EC Finals. Atlanta meanwhile has a lot more to play for as they sit 5th in the East but could slip into the play in tourney with a few losses. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks on Sunday (unfortunately we had them) where they led for a majority of the game before blowing it late. We expect a very focused effort here form a Hawks team that is playing well right now. Atlanta has the 7th best Net rating over the last 10-game period at +9.7 compared to the Cavs +4.7. The biggest contributing factor has been their defense which is 7th in defensive Net rating over that same stretch of games. The Cavs are 17th. Atlanta is the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Cavs 3PT defense is 26th. We expect a motivated Hawks team to win this game rather easily with the Cavs potentially resting everyone.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - The T’Wolves have incentive to win here as they would lock up a top 6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the play in tournament. The Pacers are by far the easiest win on the remaining schedule so expect the Wolves to go all out here so they can rest after tonight. Indiana had a slight bump in their play recently, but injuries have taken a massive toll on their roster as they’ll dress just 9 players tonight and are missing their top 5 scorers. We also like the fact that Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, including a home defeat most recently to the Hornets. Looking back at Minnesota’s schedule they are just 14-11 SU in their last 25 games BUT the eleven losses all came against current playoff bound teams. In their last two games against non-playoff teams or teams on the Pacers level, they have a 30-point win in Dallas and a 36-point win over the Jazz. As we mentioned, the Pacers had some of their regulars back in the lineup in recent weeks and played well, but in their last two games they’ve suffered two double-digit defeats. Indiana has the second worst record in the NBA at 18-60, just one more win than the Wizards who have 17. Minnesota should take advantage of the Pacers porous defense that allows opponents to hit 49% of their field goal attempts overall and 35.7% of their 3PT attempts. The Wolves are the 9th best shooting team in the league overall and 6th best in 3PT%. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - We will ride the red hot Hawks in this game and predict a solid win by the home team in this Eastern Conference showdown. If you’ve been sleeping on Atlanta then you probably don’t know the Hawks have won 13 straight home games and 18 of their last 20 games overall. What’s most impressive in that stretch of games is the fact that 16 of those eighteen wins have come by 10+ points. In their 13-game home winning streak they have an average margin of victory +18.3ppg. The Knicks have been an average road team this season with a 21-19 SU record with an average +/- in those games of +2.6ppg. New York is .500 in their last 10 road games with an average MOV of +1.7ppg – so nothing to scare us off taking the Hawks at home. If we dig a little deeper into the Knicks last 10 away games we also find the 5 wins have come against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Indiana, Utah and Denver – just one team with a winning record. The 5 losses in that same stretch of games came at: Houston, OKC, Charlotte, LA Clippers and LA Lakers. The Knicks sit 3rd in the East and only 1-game ahead of the Cavs in 4th place but they may prefer the four seed to avoid Boston in the conference finals. Atlanta is 5th in the East but trail the Cavs by 4-games so they’re not moving up in the standings but they certainly don’t want to slip down with three teams just 2-games behind them. The Hawks are clearly playing better right now with the 7th best efficiency differential over the last 5-games at +14.5 compared to the Knicks eDIFF of +1.8 in that same span of games. We will trust the Hawks here at home to get a win over the Knicks.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors 10pm ET - The Warriors are not the same Warriors that it was in the past and to be honest, and are barely above the likes of Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas, even though they have 10 more wins on the season. Golden State is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and the 4 wins came against Washington twice, Brooklyn by 3-points and Dallas in OT. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since March 5th and coincidentally that team was Houston by 2-points in OT. Golden State is pretty much locked into the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are just trying to stay somewhat healthy. Houston on the other hand still has a shot at the 4 seed which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has won 5 straight games and 7 of their last nine overall. One of those losses came recently in Minnesota where they were a 2-point favorite. The loss isn’t the interesting factor in that game, it’s the spread of -2 which is obviously slightly lower than today’s spread against a far worse GST team. These two teams played on this court in November with the Rockets winning 104-100 and that was without Durant playing for Houston, while the Warriors had Butler, Curry and Green in the lineup. Houston has the 7th best average +/- over the last 10-games of +10.4ppg. Golden State has an average +/- scoring differential of minus -7.3ppg over that same 10-game period. Houston is healthy and will win this game by 4+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 238.5 Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10pm ET - Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 62.5%, and last 10 games at 62.2%. Overall, the Pacers offenses has been dialed in with the 6th best offensive rating over that same 10-game stretch. Defense, not so much as they rank 29th in defensive rating in their last 10. Indiana is also playing up-tempo with the 4th fastest pace of play over the last 5-games. Indiana just played the Hornets, and the two teams produced 237 total points. Charlotte is better defensively than the Cavs, play slower with the two teams being near-equal offensively. As far as the Cavs are concerned, they will be well rested here with their last game being April 2nd. When the Cavs have played with 2-3 days rest they have gone OVER in 6 of nine games with an average OVER of +13.8ppg. Cleveland scored 120+ in 7 of their last twelve games and come into this game with the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.190-points per possession. They play at an above average pace and have a defensive efficiency rating of 1.149ppp allowed which ranks 14th. On the subject of defense, the Cavs have allowed 120+ in 4 of their last six games. In the three meetings this season these two teams produced 229, 254 and 236 total points. With the current trends of each we expect a game well into the 240’s on Sunday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - The 76ers are playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back so it’s unlikely Embiid suits up for Detroit tonight. That means more spacing for the 76ers offense, better ball movement and a faster pace without waiting for the big guy to lumber down the floor. Last night the 76ers played a slower, more deliberate game with Embiid, we anticipate tonight’s game will be more like Wednesday’s game at Washington where the 76ers took 99 field goal attempts and played in space. In their last 5 games the Sixers have the 4th best offensive efficiency in the league at 1.262-points per possession and an eFG% of 60% which is also 4th best. Detroit will need to score in this game too for us to cash this ticket and we expect them to put up 115 or better with an offense at averages 117.5ppg on the season. Detroit is 10th in oEFF for the year averaging 1.175-points per possession with the 5th best team FG% at 48.2%. Both teams are around league average in pace of play for the season, Philly has been much faster in their last 5-games, Detroit slightly slower than league average. Detroit is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, Philly ranks 17th in dEFF. Both teams are playing worse on that end of the floor in their past 5-games though with higher-than-normal points per possession allowed. We expect this game to finish closer to the league average of 231 total points. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10pm ET - Typically, I wouldn’t play on a team like the 76ers coming off a 153 point outburst but today I’ll make an exception. The Sixers are the much more desperate team here sitting 6th in the Eastern Conference but basically tied with Toronto and only 1 game ahead of Charlotte in the 7th or 8th seed. That will mean a play-in situation for Philly if they slip in the ranks. Minnesota is comfortably in the 6th seed in the West and may be content to stay there in the first round to play the Lakers instead of moving up to the 5 seed to face the Nuggets. Minnesota is coming off a tough game last night in Detroit and will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Philly is coming off a blowout win over the Wizards on Wednesday 153-131 and have now won 5 of their last seven games. The 76ers have Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Oubre Jr back in the lineup and look considerably better in recent games. Looking at each teams last 5 games we find the 76ers have a better Net rating at +4.1 compared to the Wolves +2.7. The big difference in this game will come down to shooting and getting buckets. Philly has the 5th best eFG% over the last 5 games with a healthy roster (sans Embiid) while the Wolves have the 30th or worst eFG% in that same span of games. We like the rest advantage and the home team laying a short number. Buy Philadelphia!

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +16 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - This is a solid scheduling situation to back the Pacers and grab the generous points against the Hornets in Charlotte tonight. The Hornets are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night, playing their 3rd in four nights AND 5th game in 7 days. PLUS, they have huge games looming in Minnesota, at Boston, home against Detroit then at New York. We can’t imagine the Hornets will be ‘up’ tonight to face the 18-win Pacers. Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 64.3%, and last 10games at 61.3%. Overall, the Pacers have played well above expectations in recent weeks with the 10th best Net rating in the NBA at +6.3. That’s not much different than the Hornets +9.0 Net rating in that same span of games. Indiana has won two straight road game and has a negative average point differential of minus -10ppg in their last nine road games. A great comparable for this game which tells us the line is too high is the Pacers recent game in San Antonio where they were essentially an underdog by the same number of +16. Charlotte is playing well, but they are not on the Spurs level in the league right now. Charlotte does have some blowout home wins in recent weeks over bad teams, but this is going to be a really tough spot for them. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - This is a great situational spot to fade the Spurs and back the Clippers. San Antonio is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back as they played at Golden State Wednesday night. This is also the Spurs 3rd game in four nights, 5th game in nine days. The Spurs are on a blistering run right now but four of their last 9 wins have come against non-playoff qualifiers. We like the fact that the Clippers are off an upset home loss to the Blazers two nights ago (thank you Portland) and are focused here with playoff positioning on the line. Granted, the Spurs have incentive to win also, but catching the Thunder is a lot to ask considering OKC would need to lose several games and that’s not likely to happen. LA had won 5 straight games prior to the loss. The two prior meetings between these two teams were both decided by just 4-point each. The Clippers have the rest advantage, are highly motivated and have an 8-3 ATS record as a home dog this season. Inflation in the number and desperation have us on the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - These two teams are eerily similar and with the Suns now having Dillon Brooks back in the lineup we like them to keep this game close or win outright. In each teams most recent 5-games these two teams rank 3rd (Hornets) and 5th (Suns) in Net Rating. Charlotte has a Net rating of +14.8 in their last 5 games, the Suns are at +13.0. Rebound rate in also near even in that stretch of games as is eFG%. When if comes to efficiency differentials only almost dead even at +13.6 and +13.5. Charlotte was racking up wins left and right until their schedule stiffened in recent games as they lost to both Philadelphia and Boston as small home favorites. The Hornets are 4-5 SU in their last nine games at home against a team that is currently in a playoff position. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five games and is 4-2 ATS their last six as a dog. They are coming off a 4-point loss to the Magic on Tuesday night and have a 20-13 ATS record this season when coming off an ‘L’. Charlotte is a solid 11-7 ATS at home as a chalk but this will be a tough cover against a Phoenix team that recently beat them by 12 in the Desert. The key advantage in this match up is the Suns 3PT shooting (9th in 3PT%) going up against a Hornets 3PT% D that is 18th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the league, but the Suns have the 2nd best 3PT% defense allowing just 34.6%. This has the feel of a 1 or 2-point game either way. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +17.5 at Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - Let’s start by saying this…I hate taking the Bucks right now as they are a very hard team to trust with Doc Rivers running the show. But, I’ll make an exception tonight as the number is higher than it should be and we expect Milwaukee to keep it relatively close and within the spread. Both teams played last night with the Rockets winning a huge game over the Knicks 111-94. Houston starters logged heavy minutes in the win with Smith Jr, Durant and Thompson all playing 34+ minutes. Milwaukee got a much needed win over the Mavericks 123-99. If you have been following the Bucks, Rivers is employing a new strategy and playing everyone around 20+ minutes so the back-to-back tonight shouldn’t be a factor. This is the largest spread the Rockets have been favored by all season long and while we feel they’ll win this game, we don’t think it’s going to be the blowout the oddsmakers are suggesting. On the season the Rockets have an average plus/minus of +4.5ppg, the Bucks are negative at -6.0ppg, both within reason for tonight’s game and this pointspread. Houston is 26-10 SU on their home court with an average margin of victory of +6.48ppg, the Bucks are 13-24 SU away from home with an average MOV of minus -7.7ppg. The O/U on this game is set at 218.5 which suggests a lower scoring game which makes covering this big number tough for Houston. We will grab the points with the Bucks.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 249 Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This is one of the highest totals on the board today and we like the value after the move with the UNDER. The Bulls have some controversy surrounding them with the recent release of Jaden Ivey after his religious comments and the NBA. The NBA ratings and popularity continue to plummet with the failed leadership and their policies. I wonder if the NBA would have allowed the Spurs to waive Wemby or another superstar had they made those comments. In any regard, that certainly has to be a distraction for players on the Bulls roster heading into tonight’s game. The meat of this handicap is simple. We have two teams that play fast and don’t play defense, but both rank 23rd or worse in offensive efficiency ratings (Pacers 27th, Bulls 24th). The Pacers rank 27th in overall FG%, 19th in 3PT% and are coming off an unusually great shooting games against the Heat when they hit 53/92 FGA’s (58%) and 18/39 3’s (46%) and we don’t see them duplicating that two games in a row. Chicago is trending the wrong direction with their shooting at 34.4% from Deep (23rd) and 47.3% overall from the field which ranks 19th in the NBA over the past 5 games. The value in the number is key here as the last two games between these two teams had O/U’s of 234.5 and 235.5 and the two games finished with 223 and 225 total points. In fact, all 3 meetings this season have stayed UNDER as have 6 straight in the series. Our model projects 235.3 total points being scored. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +5.5 at LA Clippers, 11:10pm ET - This game has big implications for each team as the Clippers hold the 8th spot in the Western Conference while the Blazers are 9th. The Clippers won both meetings with Portland earlier this season but that was in late October and late December and a lot has changed since then, especially for L.A. Looking at each teams efficiency stats we find they have the 2nd (Clippers) and 3rd best eDIFF’s over the last 5 games with both teams playing at a high level. Looking at that same 5-game period, the Blazers have the lowest or best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.013-points per possession, which is a major factor when getting these many points in a game. If we go back to each teams previous 10 games, we find the Blazers are playing at a higher level with the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league compared to the Clippers 12th. The Blazers work on the offensive glass in recent weeks has been significantly better than the Clippers too with Portland ranking 3rd in offensive rebound rate compared to the Clippers ranking 23rd. We like those added possessions and scoring possibilities for Portland in this matchup. Portland has covered 4 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court. We will grab the points with the Trailblazers.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222 Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - These two teams are in playoff mode with the Celtics 2nd in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks currently sit 6th. The Hawks are cooking right now with a 13-2 SU record in their last 15 games with the second-best Net rating over that stretch of games at +12.2. Boston is no slouch over that same stretch of games with an 11-4 SU record with a Net rating of +7.1. The Hawks have been shooting lights out with the 5th best eFG% of 57.5% over their last 15 games. The Celtics rank 14th in offensive efficiency over that same 10 game period. Atlanta is on a 6-2 OVER streak largely due to an offensive that has scored 123 or more points in six of those eight. One of the games they didn’t put up great offensive numbers was a few nights ago in Boston when they scored 102. Atlanta had a bad shooting night, especially from deep when they hit just 15/42. Boston just put up 119 points against a Thunder defense that is the best in the league and have scored 117 or more in 4 of their last seven games. Boston plays slow, but the Hawks counter with the 3rd fastest paced offense in the NBA. In the three meetings between these two teams this season they produced 211, 223 and 238 total points. The C’s are coming off a game on Sunday and fatigue could be a factor on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks will shoot better on their home court than they did in Boston last week. We expect this game to be closer to the league average (231) than below it….BET OVER!

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:10pm ET - We are betting a value number here based on the three other meetings between these two teams this season. The first three games of this series all had O/U numbers greater than 230 and now we get a number in the mid-220’s. The most recent meeting between the two teams finished with 212 total points but the other two clashes finished with 228 and 235 (in regulation) points. It looks like the Pelicans will have either Murphy or Murray or potentially both, which clearly impacts their offense in a positive way. Murphy is averaging just under 22ppg, Murray is chipping in 17.2ppg. Houston has the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.175-points per possession. In their last 5 games they are averaging 118.2ppg with an eFG% of 55.7%. The Pels defense is below average on the season (24th) and in recent games (allowing 1.190ppp last 5 games) when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings. Houston is the 2nd slowest paced team on the season but have been playing at a slightly faster rate in their past 5 games. Again, this number is the main contributor in our wager as we feel Vegas had it right in their last meeting with an O/U of 230.5. This game creeps over the 225.5 today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +1.5 -125 at Charlotte Hornets, 6:10 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they look to improve seedings in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are the league up-and-comers, while the overlooked Celtics has shocked everyone with their 49-24 record this season. The Celtics will be out for payback here as the Hornets beat them in Boston earlier this month 118-89. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night of 38% overall and just 28% from deep. Those numbers came against a slightly better than average Hornets defense so the logical regression would be for Boston to make more shots here. Plus, the Hornets are coming off a big game yesterday against the 76ers, a 4-point home loss. In fact, the Bugs have played two very big games in a row (faced the Knicks on Thursday) and will have a tough time getting up for the 3rd big game in a row, especially without rest. There is no question the Hornets are playing fantastic basketball right now with a 13-4 SU record in their last 17 games with one of the best +/-‘s in the league, but then why are they a dog in this game? Boston is 23-13 SU on the road this season with the 3rd highest margin of victory of +7.3ppg. Despite their success, the Hornets are only 19-17 SU on their home court this season, 6-14 SU as a home underdog. Boston finds a way to win this road game.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, 6pm ET - We like the extra value in this number now that it sits as high as it is with movement based on the 76ers health and their most recent game against the Bulls when they scored 157 points. This game has massive playoff implications for both teams and we are betting the defense and pace of play will have the greatest impact in the outcome. In their most recent 15 games the Hornets have nearly identical defensive net rating numbers as the Thunder who are the best defensive team in the league. Philly recently played the Thunder and that game finished with 226 total points with the Sixers managing just 103. Granted that was without Embiid for Philadelphia but his added offensive production also means a slower tempo with him in the game. Philly is essentially an ‘average’ team this season statistically as they rank 16th in offensive efficiency, 17th in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has borderline metrics that suggest they could win it all this season with the 12th best season long defensive efficiency and 4th best oEFF rating (teams in the top 11 of both historically win the NBA Championship). The last meeting between these two teams resulted in 223 total points which ties into a trend in this series with 8 of the last ten meetings resulting in less points than today’s O/U. In a playoff like atmosphere we expect a less than average scoring game with 227 total points being scored.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - This line opened with the Blazers -10 and despite more money and bets coming in on Dallas the line has ticked up which is a solid indicator for us to be on Portland. The Blazers have all the incentives in the world to keep playing hard as they sit 9th in the Western Conference but could move up to 7th or 8th with a solid finish to the season. Dallas has nothing to play for other than a better draft position by tanking down the stretch. Portland has won 5 of their last six games with three of those coming by 28 or more points. They put up 134 and 130 in their last two games against similar teams to the Mavs in the Bucks and Nets. The Mavericks are 2-14 SU in their last sixteen games and have the 5th worst Net rating over the last 15 games at minus -12.1. In comparison, the Blazers have the 4th best Net rating over their last 5-games. One thing we know for sure is that the Blazers will show up and play hard tonight. We’d be surprised if Dallas does the same. Bet the home team minus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 224.5 Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, 7:40pm ET - These two teams are in playoff mode with the Celtics 2nd in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks currently sit 5th. The Hawks are cooking right now with a 14-1 SU record in their last 15 games with the second best Net rating over that stretch of games at +14.4. Boston is no slouch over that same stretch of games with a 10-5 SU record with a Net rating of +6.8. The Hawks have been shooting lights out with the 6th best eFG% of 56.9% over their last 15 games. In the last 10 games they own the best eFG% in the NBA at 57.3%. The Celtics rank 6th in eFG% over that same 10 game period. Atlanta is on a 5-1 OVER streak largely due to an offensive that has scored 124, 135, 126, 146 and 130 in those games that went OVER the total. Boston just put up 119 points against a Thunder defense that is the best in the league and have scored 117 or more in 4 of their last five games. Boston plays slow, but the Hawks counter with the 3rd fastest paced offense in the NBA. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they produced 223 and 238 total points. The O/U’s in those previously mentioned games were 230.5 and 232.5 so you can see for yourself the value we are getting in today’s line of 224.5. We expect this game to be closer to the league average (231) than below it….BET OVER!

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -115 vs NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - Instead of laying the 1 or 1.5 points, we will select the money line option here as it is available as low as a -115 price. The Knicks currently sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets are 10th and both are fighting for better seeding. Despite the Knicks having 10 more wins than the Hornets, Charlotte is playing better at this point and time in the season. The Hornets are 22-6 SU their last 28 games overall, 12-3 SU their last 15 games with the best average +/- in the league over that stretch of +15.9ppg. In that same span of games, they have the best Net rating in the league at +16.2. Even when you compare the season efficiency differentials the Knicks have a slight advantage of +6.9 compared to the Hornets +4.7 and Charlotte got off to a horrible start to the season. New York has won 7 straight games but take a look at who those wins have come against: Utah, Indiana, Golden State, Brooklyn, Washington and New Orleans, literally the worst teams in the league other than GST. New York won the first two meetings of the season but those were back in late November, early December. With the addition of Coby White, the Hornets added depth to their backcourt and are playing as well as anyone in the East right now. Take the home team in this one and watch it be a double-digit victory.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9:40pm ET - We faded the Rockets successfully in their last game against the Bulls and it paid off nicely with Chicago winning outright as an +8-point dog. Houston hasn’t been great on the road recently with a 2-5 SU record away from home in their last seven. One of those two wins came against the Wizards who are the worst team in the NBA. Minnesota is playing without Anthony Edwards and actually playing well. The ball movement on offense has been much better and everyone is contributing. Minnesota is coming off a win in Boston a few nights ago and are 4-2 SU in their last six games. The Wolves have won 7 of their last ten games at home and have an average margin of victory at home in March of +5.3ppg. These two teams have near identical offensive/defensive efficiency numbers overall on the season, but we are getting the Wolves at home as a dog when clearly they should be the favorite here, even without ANT. Minnesota has been a home dog just 11 times in the last two seasons and they have a +5.5ppg scoring differential in those games. This is a massive game for both teams when it comes to playoff seedings with Minnesota 5th and Houston 6th but just a .5 game back. Bet Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Phoenix Suns, 11pm ET - The Nuggets are as healthy as they’ve been all season and we predict they’ll be a tough out in the West come playoff time. Phoenix is still missing a few key components with Brooks and Williams out and several others listed as day-to-day as we write this. The Suns are 7th in the West, 3.5 games behind the Rockets in the 6th seed but 4.5 games up on the Clippers. Denver sits 4th in the West (key for home court in the 1st round) but barely ahead of the Rockets and tied with the Wolves. Phoenix had lost 5 straight games before beating the Raptors at home 120-98. The Suns shot insanely well at 52% overall and hit 18/40 3-pointers. Denver has won 2 straight games and 3 of their last four, and 5 of their last seven. Four of those wins came against current playoff teams, one of which was against the Spurs in San Antonio. Denver has owned this series with 4 straight wins dating back to the end of last season. One of the Nuggets wins this season was in Phoenix by 18-points. A great indicator of how these teams are currently playing is their efficiency differentials with the Nuggets at +8.3 in their last 5 games, the Suns are -0.4 eDIFF. We will lay the short number with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +8.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - This time of the season it’s very hard to back a bad team like Chicago but we’ll make an exception today given the scheduling circumstances. Houston is coming off a very tough home stretch which saw them play two games against the Lakers, one versus Atlanta and then another, last second win over the Heat. Now they are travelling to Chicago to face a 28-42 SU Bulls team, and they have a massive game on deck in Minnesota on Wednesday. The Bulls meanwhile have been March 19th or last Thursday and could be getting some key pieces back tonight. Chicago is a respectable 17-20 SU on their home court and 12-10 ATS as a home dog with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg which is good enough for a cover in this one. On that note, the Rockets are 11-16 ATS as a road chalk with an average MOV of +4.0ppg. Chicago is 9-5 ATS with 2 or more days of rest this season. In their last game the Bulls were +9.5 at home against a similar Cavs team which finished with a 110-115 score and cover for the home team. We like the situation for the Bulls to hand around in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, 7pm ET - This is a great spot for a struggling Magic offense to get back on track against a Pacers defense that is one of the worst in the league. The season long metrics for the Pacers D isn’t good as they allow 1.190-points per possession. In their last 5-games they have been ATROCIOUS allowing 1.303ppp – by far the worst in the league. Indiana has allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last ten games and 123 or more in 8 of ten. They have been better offensively and recently got a boost with the return of Paskal Siakam and his 24ppg. Indiana has scored 119 in their last 2 games and 119 or more in 3 of their last four games and one of those games was against a Spurs defense that allows the 7th fewest points per game in the NBA. Orlando was one of the better defenses in the league a year ago but they’ve slipped on that end of the court currently ranking 10th in dEFF on the season and 19th in their last 5 games. The Magic have allowed 122 or more in 4 of their last seven games and 113 or more in 6 of seven. Orlando has struggled offensely in their last 5 games but now against a faster paced Pacers team that isn’t playing any defense we should see them get to 125 or more in this one. When these two teams last met on this court they produced 262 total points. It won’t get that high tonight but it will get OVER 232 based on our metrics.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Washington Wizards at NY Knicks, 7:30pm ET - These two teams met in early February and produced 233 total points. We expect a similar output today. The Wizards defense is atrocious and they’ve been hemorrhaging points on that end of the court. The Wiz just allowed 132 to the Thunder, 117 to the Pistons, 130 to Detroit and 125 to the Warriors in their four most recent games. They have allowed 122+ points in 8 of their last ten games. Washington is tied with the Jazz for the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.220-points per possession. Speaking of Utah, the Knicks recently played the Jazz and scored 134 points in a game that finished with 251 total points. The Knicks are the 3rd most efficient offense on the season averaging 1.193-points per possession. New York won’t need a ton of possessions to put up a big offensive number in this game with the 5th best 3PT% in the league facing a Wizards defense that allows 36.3% shooting by opponents, the 22nd highest number in the NBA. The OVER has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +2 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This is a great scenario to back the Heat on the road in what we expect to be a win by a comfortable margin. Houston played last night and beat the Hawks at home. That win came after a pair of losses at home to the Lakers, who coincidentally just beat this Heat team in Miami. Not only is Houston playing the 2nd night of a back to back, but they are also playing their 4th games in six days. When playing without rest the Rockets have a 5-6 ATS record this season and a negative scoring differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston is one of the worst home favorites this season at 13-19 ATS, Miami as a road dog is 14-11 ATS. Miami is nearly back to full strength with Herro and Powell back in the lineup and are desperate to move up to the 6th seed or better in the East to avoid the play-in scenario. The Heat have lost 3-straight including the other night when they lost by 8-points to the Lakers who made 34/45 free throws compared to the Heat's 18/22. Houston allows the 25th most points off turnovers this season, ranks 22nd in opponents 2nd chance points and are average or 15th in fast break points allowed. Miami is the fastest paced team in the league and rank top 7 offensively in points off turnovers, 2nd chance points and transition scoring. These two teams recently met in Miami with the Heat winning by 10-points, 115-105. We expect a similar margin of victory in this game by the Heat in Houston.

ASA NBA play on OVER 229 Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10pm ET - The Celtics are steamrolling to the playoffs with a 17-5 SU streak and face a Memphis team in full tank mode with a 1-8 SU record in their last nine games. We will use a hockey term to describe the current state of the Grizzlies defense and that’s a ‘sieve’ as they’ve allowed 122+ points in 6 of their last eight games. Of the span of the last 5 games the Grizzlies defense is 29th in defensive efficiency allowing an average of 1.246-points per possession. On the season the Grizz have the 24th rated FG% defense overall allowing 47.6% shooting by opponents but in their last 5-games they are allowing 51.1%. Memphis allows a ton of 3-point attempts and makes and not many teams do that better than the Celtics. Boston is 10th in 3PT%, 3rd in 3PT attempts and makes. Boston continues to be highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.198-points per possession in their last 5-games and 1.204ppp on the season. Boston has put up 120 in their two prior games against the Warriors and Suns who are both significantly better than Memphis on that end of the court. Looking at the Grizz most recent games they’ve given up 126 to a Nets offense that is atrocious, 139 to an injury riddled 76ers team, 120 to Dallas and 132 to the Bulls. Boston is getting into the mid-120’s at a minimum which means we need the Grizzlies to get to 110 or more which they’ve done in 21 of their last 22 games. We expect plenty of points from these two teams to get to 230+ in this one. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8pm ET - This sets up perfectly with the Heat desperate for a win – at home – off a pair of losses and now facing a Lakers team off a big game last night in Houston. L.A. has played three monster games in a row, two against the Rockets, one versus Denver, and will have a tough time finding their legs for this non-conference showdown. You may be surprised to know the Lakers are just 6-9 SU as a road dog this season with an average loss margin of minus -7.9ppg. Miami is 23-12 SU at home on the season and have won 7 of their last eight in South Beach. The Heat have the 6th best average point differential at home of +6.1ppg on the year. The Lakers are playing well right now but this isn’t a great situation for them and their defense (20th in efficiency ratings) will have a tough time slowing down the Heat who play at the fastest rate in the league and rank 13th in offensive efficiency. Let’s face it, the Lakers still have a big target on their backs and the Heat will be up for this one and back to near 100% health with Herro and Powell back in the lineup. Miami is 17-13 SU off a loss with an average +/- of +3.1ppg. We will lay it here with Miami.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:30pm ET - There is a valid reason for this number being inflated like it is but based on our calculations it’s still not high enough to not take the Blazers. The Pacers are in a horrible situation here coming off a game last night in New York. The Knicks are a big rival and the Pacers put everything into that game and still got blown out 136-110. Now the Pacers travel home to face a rested Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives. Indiana will be playing their 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days and 5th in seven days. All this with a depleted roster. Portland was just favored by -11-points at Brooklyn and won by 9-points, but the Nets weren’t in this bad scheduling spot. Indiana 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS with an average loss margin of -12.7ppg when playing without rest. Portland has the 7th best efficiency differential in the NBA over the last 5 games, Indiana has the 6th worst. The Blazers win this game by 15+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics, 7:10pm ET - These same two teams met in Golden State on February 19th and produced 231 total points. We see a similar output in tonight’s game. The Warriors trademark defense in the past simply isn’t where it needs to be as they sit 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.146-points per possession. Last season the Warriors finished the year ranked 7th best in the league allowing 1.117ppp. Golden State sits 18th in opponents FG% allowing 47.3% and allows foes to hit 35.3% of their 3-point attempts. Boston doesn’t have a great team FG% overall but they take the 2nd most 3-pointers in the league and make the 3rd most at 15.4 per game. Boston ranks 11th in 3PT% at 36.2% and has the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.204-points per possession. Golden State doesn’t have great overall offensive numbers on the season, ranking 14th in oEFF but in their last 5 games they’ve been significantly better averaging 1.185-points per possession. A big reason why we’ve seen an improvement in their oEFF is the increase of +3.5 offensive rebounds per game compared to their season average. Boston just played Phoenix and the two teams combined for 232 total points. In comparison, the Suns are better defensively than GST, about even offensively and play at a much slower pace. The Warriors recently faced a Knicks team that is similar to Boston and the game finished with 217 total points with the two teams scoring an unusual 43 total points in the 2nd Q. Our model is projecting 223.3 total points in this one. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - Current betting markets and indicators tell us this game is going OVER the total. That along with some solid statistical support including our math model projecting 233.6 total points being scored. These two teams recently met on this same court and produced 234 total points. In the two other meetings this season they combined for 224 and 231 points. In the most recent clash (Feb 25th) the Cavaliers played without their three leading scorers: Mitchell, Harden and Mobley and still put up 116 against the Bucks. Milwaukee was still without Giannis at that time too and scored 118 against the Cavs. Cleveland has played in three straight higher scoring games with total points of 250, 243 and 250 total points. Milwaukee’s defense has gotten steadily worse under Doc Rivers through the past two years and in their last 7 games they’ve allowed 122 or more points 5 times, 129 or more 3 times. Prior to Doc taking over the Bucks were a top 5 defensive efficiency team in the league, today they rank 24th in dEFF allowing 1.179-points per possession. Cleveland has slipped a little defensively also compared to last season (8th dEFF 1.122ppp) sitting 12th in dEFF allowing 1.143ppp. These are two top 9 shooting teams in the league with the Bucks hitting 48% from the field overall (7th) and 38.7% from deep (2nd), the Cavs rank 9th in FG% at 47.8% and 12th in 3PT% at 36.1%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get to this O/U tonight. This game is going to get into the 230’s in the second half of the 4th quarter, bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9:40pm ET - Everyone knows the Lakers are a public team and one of the NBA’s casual bettors-backed teams. Today they are getting a large volume of tickets on them, but the money is coming in on Houston. We like this low number with the home team in a pivotal showdown for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. The Lakers currently sit 3rd in the West, the Rockets are 4th, just a half game behind them. Denver and Minnesota are only 2-games behind Houston which is rather important for home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. The Lakers have won 8 of their last ten games but 7 of those came at home. The Lakers have had a favorable stretch of games with this being only their 4th road game in their last nineteen games. Houston is coming off a close win over the Pelicans 107-105 but played without Sengun who was rested for a minor back injury. He is listed as questionable, but we expect him back here. The Rockets have won 6 of their last eight games at home with an average point differential of plus +9.5ppg. These two teams are relatively even on offense for the season with the Lakers averaging 1.177-points per possession, the Rockets average 1.180ppp. The glaring difference between the two teams comes on the defensive end of the court where the Rockets allow just 1.131ppp, the Lakers give up 1.168ppp which ranks 21st in the league. Houston is 23-8 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +6.6 which is enough to get a cover here against the Lakers.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 6pm ET - This line has been exaggerated with the injuries to the 76ers so we’ll grab the value with the home team. Should Portland really be laying this big of a number on the road against anyone other than the bottom four teams in the league? We don’t think so. Philadelphia barely beat the Nets last time out but they led by as many as 28-points in the game and just had a tough time closing the game out late. The Sixers last 5 wins have come against similar teams to the Blazers and their losses have come against some of the best teams in the league (Pistons, Cavs, Spurs, Celtics and a red-hot Hawks). Portland on the other hand is 5-5 SU in their last ten games but four of the wins were against Utah, Indiana, Memphis and Chicago. Granted, the 76ers are missing 4 of five starters in this one but the lineup they put on the floor of Edgecombe, Grimes, Edwards, Barlow and Bona are better than a team that would be +11.5 points on a neutral floor. Portland is 4-4 SU in their last eight road games with an average point differential of minus -4.1ppg. We’re happy to grab this generous number with the Sixers.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 3:30pm ET - We like this Hornets team and what they’ve done this season and expect them to be a tough out in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but this is going to be a tall task to win in San Antonio Saturday. Charlotte is coming off two straight road wins over the Kings and Blazers (yawn). Prior to that they lost in Phoenix as a +5.5-point dog, 99-111. In other words, the Spurs, who might be the best team in the NBA, are favored by the same number at home as the Suns were just a few nights ago. Plus, we have the Spurs coming off a home loss the other night to Denver, a game in which they led by as many as 20-points. San Antonio is 11-7 ATS when coming off a loss this season with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. While Charlotte is 8-2 SU in their last ten games, only one of those wins came against a team with a .500 record or better. In fact three of those wins came against the Kings, Pacers and Wizards, the three worst teams in the league. The Spurs are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games with the two losses to the Knicks and Nuggets who are both better than this Charlotte team. In their last 15 games the Spurs are 13-2 SU with an average point differential of +12.7ppg – the best number in the NBA. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team overall at 45.9% (26th) but do hit 37.9% from the 3-point line and rely heavily on their 3PT shooting. San Antonio allows the 4th lowest FG% in the league at 45.2% and the 12th lowest 3PT% at 35.5% which will make scoring tough for Charlotte. On the opposite end of the court the Spurs should have their way offensively against the Hornets D that ranks 16th in overall defensive efficiency allowing 1.152-points per possession. Wemby is questionable tonight but even if he doesn’t play we like the Spurs in this matchup.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavericks are in a horrible scheduling situation here having played last night in Memphis and this will be their 3rd game in four days, 6th in nine days AND all of those were on the road. Prior to last night they had lost 8 straight games. The other current trend for the Mavs has been the UNDER with 8 straight and counting. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 112 or less in 9 of their last fourteen games, 105 or less in 5 of their last eight games and 100 or less in 4/7. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 3rd worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.105-points per possession. Also impacting lower scoring games involving the Mavericks has been a slower pace of play. On the season, Dallas is one of the faster paced teams in the NBA at 101.6 possessions per game but in their last five that number has dropped to 98.8. Cleveland has been consistent defensively this season with the 12th best defensive efficiency rating, allowing 1.140ppp and 114.6ppg. In their most recent 5 games they are allowing 108.6ppg and 1.126ppp. The Cavs season long ranking in oEFF is 7th best in the NBA but they are trending down in recent games at 1.143-points per possession in their last 5 games. The Cavs + their opponents have combined for 236.5 or less points in 10 of their last eleven games when you exclude at OT period in one of those games. This is an easy call on the UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - It’s betting suicide to routinely lay double-digits in the NBA and expect long term winning results but sometimes you have to make an exception to the rules, which is what we’ll do tonight. Cleveland is coming off a loss two nights ago in Orlando after winning 3 of four games prior. They are battling for a better seed in the East, currently sitting 4th but only trail 2nd place Boston by 3 games. Dallas is in a very bad scheduling situation here having played 6 straight road games, including a game last night, a win in Memphis. This is their 3rd game in four days and 6th in nine days. We like to fade teams that were on an extended road trip and home for the first time as they tend to have a tough time in this scheduling situation. In the Mavs last 8 losses, 7 have come by double-digits. In the Mavs last 15 games they have the 4th highest points differential of minus -10.3ppg. Cleveland has the 8th best average margin of victory in that same 15 games stretch at +7.1ppg. Dallas was recently +16.5 points at home against the Thunder and lost by 13-points. That was somewhat misleading as the Thunder had a horrible shooting night from beyond the arc at 21% or that final could have been much greater. Given the scheduling advantage for the Cavaliers we will lay the big number with them tonight.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 pm ET - The Nuggets were in a favorable scheduling situation last night hosting the Rockets but now find themselves playing without rest and on the road against what might be the best team in the NBA. San Antonio is clearly ahead of schedule with their young roster and are more than capable of winning it all this season. They are red hot right now with a 16-1 SU record in their last 17 games and have an impressive stretch of current wins over the Pistons, Clippers, Rockets and Celtics. In this 17-game run they have an average margin of victory of +14ppg – best in the NBA. A closer look at Denver and the records show they are 6-9 SU in their last 15 games with an average point differential of +1.6ppg. Denver is 7-6 their last thirteen away from home but none of those 7 wins came against a team with an above .500 record. They lost two recent games to OKC which would be a similar opponent to the Spurs, but they weren’t coming off games the night before. Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA with an offensive efficiency rating of 1.215-points per possession with the best eFG% in the league at 57.1%. San Antonio though ranks 6th in oEFF and eFG% so they have an offense nearly equivalent to the Nuggets. The difference between the two teams is defensive as the Spurs rank 3rd in dEFF allowing 1.112ppp, the Nuggets rank 23rd.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -14.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 pm ET - The Hawks are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games and the 5th best Net rating over that span of games with an average +/- of +11.1ppg. Atlanta is on an 8-game winning streak which coincidentally started with an 11-point win over this same Nets team. Brooklyn has just 17 wins on the season and is fighting for a higher pick in this year’s draft. Brooklyn is 2-11 SU their last 13 games with an average loss margin of -15.1ppg. They have the worst Net rating in the NBA over that same period at minus -15.4. The Hawks have been winning by margin in this 8 game SU/ATS streak with every win by 9 or more points. Michael Porter Jr, the Nets leading scorer was injured last game and will be out tonight which is why this spread is 4 points more than the previous meeting. If it’s not broken – don’t fix it. The Hawks are surging, the Nets are tanking. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 10pm ET - We will lay the short number with the home team here with Houston in a tough scheduling situation. The Rockets played last night making this the 2nd of a back to back. They are also playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th game in seven days – and – playing at altitude. Denver is also coming off two straight losses and will be highly motivated to end this 2 game skid. Denver is 18-7 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of plus 6.4ppg. The Nuggets have Aaron Gordon back in the lineup and are as healthy as they’ve been all season with all 5 starters back in the mix. Denver has been solid when playing with a rest advantage with a 10-6 SU record but an average margin of victory in those games of +7.9ppg. Denver has a slightly better record in conference play than the Rockets with a +6.7ppg differential compared to Houston’s +3.5ppg. Denver is 6th in the West as of today but trails the 3rd place Rockets by just a game and a half which makes tonight’s home game massive. We will lay it with Denver who wins late when the Rockets run out of gas.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 at LA Lakers, 11 pm ET - We hope Lebron is in the line up tonight for the Lakers as they are simply a worse team with him on the floor. The Lakers are 4-12 SU against teams with a .600 or better winning percentage this season – 0-4 when Lebron plays. The Lakers are coming off of a big upset win over the Knicks on Monday, the Timberwolves are off a home blowout loss to the Magic on Sunday. Prior to their loss, the Wolves had won 5 straight and 8 of their last nine. In that same stretch of 9 games, they have 3 road wins at Portland, against the Clippers on this same floor and in Denver. Minnesota is 18-12 SU away from home this season which is nearly as good as the Lakers home record of 20-12. The Lakers are 5-1 their last six games but three of those wins were against the Kings, Pelicans and Pacers – three of the worst teams in the league. In their last nine games they have two wins over teams with an above .500 record, the Warriors and the Knicks. They also have 3 losses against the Celtics, Magic and Suns in that stretch. Minnesota is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 48.3%, the Lakers D ranks 26th in opponents FG% allowing 48.4%. The Wolves are the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Lakers rank 16th in 3PT% allowed. Granted, the Lakers are the best shooting team in the league but the Wolves rank 9th in opponents FG% shooting. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to 2nd chance points – the Wolves are 6th in 2nd chance points allowed. One thing is for certain in this matchup, Anthony Edwards will be ‘up’ for this Los Angeles game and Minnesota’s advantage on the offensive and defensive boards will be the difference in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239.5 Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - We have been on the Mavs UNDER in their last two games and cashed both tickets so why not go back to the well here. Games involving Dallas have stayed UNDER their total in 6 straight. The Mavs will have a tough time scoring here against a Hawks defense that has the #1 overall defensive efficiency over their last 5-games in the NBA. The Hawks are allowing just 1.031PPP in that 5-game stretch and 105.4ppg. Atlanta has held their last 5 opponents to 45.3% shooting, 11th best. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 111 or less in 8 of their last twelve games, 105 or less in 5 of their last six games and 100 or less in 4/5. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 5th worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.103-points per possession. Don’t be fooled by the big offensive numbers the Hawks have put up in recent games as those numbers have come against teams in the bottom half of the league in dEFF. Even if the Hawks get to 120 in this game, the Mavs would need to score 118+ and that’s not going to happen with how they are currently playing. Combined this season these two teams are 18-30 to the UNDER in non-conference games.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 10 pm ET - We like the Clippers in this one for several reasons including the fact the Knicks are coming off a game yesterday versus the Lakers while the Clippers are rested. New York lost a sloppy game yesterday with 18 turnovers while shooting just 2% from deep. Brunson played 42 minutes, Anthony Towns logged 34 minutes so both should be fatigued here. This is also the Knicks 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven days. The Clippers have won 4 of their last five games and are one game under .500 and sit just 1 game behind the Warriors for 8th in the Western Conference. LA is near healthy now with Darius Garland playing over 26 minutes on Saturday in the Clippers win over Memphis. LA has gotten much deeper with their trade line additions of Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and now Garland who had missed time with an injury. These same two teams met in New York in January with the Knicks favored by -5-points on their home court and are now laying points on the road? That doesn’t add up and we have the Clippers favored by 1.5 points in this game. In three recent home games against similar teams to the Knicks (Magic, Wolves and Nuggets) the Clippers were 1 & 2 with three close games and all three were without Garland in the lineup. The Knicks defense has slipped in recent games to 20th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 20th in that same 5-game stretch. If we use that same 5-game span to compare the offenses we find the Clippers have an oEFF of 1.149-points per possession compared to the Knicks 1.142PPP. It all adds up to a big Clippers win at home as they get revenge for the road loss back in January.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 229.5 Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors, 7pm ET - We successfully bet UNDER in the Mavs last game which was against Boston on Friday night and will come right back with another UNDER wager on them here. The Mavs will have a tough time scoring here against a Raptors defense that has allowed 115 or less points in 8 of their last ten games, in five of those they held foes to 110 or less points. The Raptors have the 12th best defensive net rating over their last 5-games in the NBA at 111.4. On the season the Raps defensive efficiency rating of 1.129-points per possession allowed ranks 7th best. Dallas has also struggled offensively, scoring 111 or less in 7 of their last eleven games. The Mavs have regressed as the season has worn on with injuries/trades taking a toll on this rebuilding year. Dallas has the 5th worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.110-points per possession. Toronto is slightly below league average in terms of offensive efficiency and have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last five games. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in 3PT% so it’s not like they’ll put up a ton of points from beyond the arc. Easy call on the UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - With 35+ years of experience handicapping the NBA we know a ‘fishy’ line when we see one, which is the case today with the Bucks. You mean to tell me the Bucks, who have lost 4 straight - all blowouts - and haven’t been a double-digit chalk since Dec 31st – are favored by 10-points here? Doesn’t make sense so we’ll do what the Books don’t want us to do and bet Milwaukee. Utah is coming off an upset win in Washington and will look to get back on the losing track in an effort to improve their draft status. Prior to the win the other night the Jazz had lost 7 straight, 4 of which were by 10+ points. Milwaukee should be in tank mode to improve their draft position but with 21 games to play (9th easiest schedule) they still have a shot at the play in and Giannis still wants to win this season. Utah has the 7th largest road scoring differential in the NBA at minus -9.6ppg. Despite the disappointing season the Bucks home differential is -3.6ppg and they stand 13-17 ATS on their own court. The Jazz are a beat-up team right now with 4 of their five regular starters out. The Bucks beat this team by 15 and 23 a year ago when the Jazz were healthy. Lay the ugly number with Milwaukee and watch Giannis/Bucks turn back the clock and win in a blowout.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic +6.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:10 pm ET - The Wolves are on a solid run right now with a 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games and have won 5 straight. Orlando is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are 4-2 in their last six games. What’s interesting is, despite the records of the two teams in that stretch of games, the Magic actually have a better net rating of +5.3 compared to the Wolves +4.2 rating. Orlando has won 3 of their last four on the road and the lone loss in that stretch was in OT at Phoenix. Minnesota hasn’t been a trustworthy home favorite this season with a 12-17 spread record and an average margin of victory of +5.8ppg. The Wolves have a very tough West coast road trip looming with games at the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Thunder so they may get caught looking ahead to those games and take the Magic for granted here. The efficiency differentials for these two teams in their last five games is much closer than today’s spread of -6.5 would suggest and with the markets heavy on the Wolves the line is trending in the opposite direction. We like Orlando here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 224.5 Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, 7:10 pm ET - The Celtics have announced Jayson Tatum may play tonight which may disrupt their offensive flow after not having him the entire season. Boston is coming off one of their worst offensive games of the season against Charlotte (89pts), shooting 38% overall and 28% from Deep. They also have three massive games looming against Cleveland, San Antonio and OKC so we doubt they’ll log heavy minutes for their starters in this one, especially if it turns into a blowout. Dallas has played three similar opponents to the Celtics lately in Orlando, Charlotte and the Thunder. Those games finished with 229, 207 and 187 total points. The Mavs game against the Thunder gives us the best comparable as OKC/Boston have similar offensive and defensive efficiencies, but the Celtics play much slower than the Thunder which is a bonus. The Mavs will have a tough time scoring here against a C’s defense that has allowed 111 or less points in 9 of their last ten games, in four of those they held foes to 90 or less points. Dallas has scored 111 or less in 6 of their last ten games. These same two teams met in early February and produced 210 total points. We expect more of the same tonight.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 9 pm ET - We were very close to laying -10.5 points with the Suns the other night in Sacramento but didn’t, tonight we’ll lay that same number at home with Phoenix over Chicago. The Bulls and Kings are playing similar right now as they both are tanking for a better draft position. Chicago is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games with the largest average loss margin over that course of games of minus -13.5 ppg. The Bulls have a net rating of -13.3 over that same stretch, only the Nets have been worse. Phoenix is coming off an 11-point win in Sacramento a few nights ago and have now won 2 straight. Devon Booker is back on the floor and his 24.6 ppg which had been missing from the Suns lineup in recent weeks. Phoenix is 20-12 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +3.2 ppg. Chicago has struggled away from home with a 9-19 SU record and an average MOV of minus -6.1ppg. Given the circumstances with the Suns fighting for a better playoff position and the Bulls looking to move up in the draft, we will lay the points with Phoenix.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:30pm ET - These two teams had fantastic February’s with the Celtics going 9-2 SU, the Hornets went 8-3. Boston had the 3rd best Net rating in the league at +12.3, the Hornets ranked 6th at +8.9. But Charlotte’s February isn’t as impressive when you look at their schedule. They’ve currently won 5 straight games, none against a team with a winning record. In the month of February, they have exactly 1 win over a team that currently has an above .500 record. Boston meanwhile is beating quality teams in this current stretch and have now vaulted to the odds-on favorites to win the East. In the month of February, the C’s have beaten 6 teams currently in the playoff hunt. Boston is 6-1 SU at home in their last seven games and all but one of those wins came by double-digits. The Celtics are winning at home by an average of +7.8ppg, Charlotte is a respectable 17-15 SU away from home but winning in Boston is a big ask. The Celtics have won 6 straight against Charlotte and 9 of the last ten meetings. Boston is clearly the better team with an efficiency differential of +8.0 (2nd in the NBA) compared to the Hornets +3.1 eDIFF which ranks 10th. Charlotte won’t sneak up on the Celtics here, lay the points with Boston.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -12.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30pm ET - The 15 win Nets have a ton to ‘not’ play for as they tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, currently sitting 8th but only 1.5 games behind the Sixers for the 6th spot. Remember, the top 6 teams are safe from the play in games so it’s a big advantage to land 6 or better. Miami had won 3 straight and was looking good before a pair of ugly losses to the Bucks and 76ers – both on the road. They then beat the Rockets on Saturday 115-105 at home. In late February the Heat were favored by -12.5 points against a similar Grizzlies team and Miami won that game by 16-points. Brooklyn has lost 8 straight games and none of the four road losses were close as they lost in Boston by 37, in Atlanta by 11, at OKC by 19 and at Cleveland by 18. Brooklyn is the worst shooting team in the NBA at 44.6% and will have a difficult time scoring here against the 7th best FG% defense in the league. Miami isn’t a great shooting team this season ranking 19th in team FG% overall and 12th in 3PT% but they’ll face a Nets D that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and allow opponents to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts. This one will get ugly early and the Heat’s transition game will turn it into a blowout.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 222 NY Knicks at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - With the playoffs looming, games are starting to have more meaning and teams are starting to play more defense, which will be the case tonight in this Eastern Conference showdown. New York is really clamping down on opponents on the defensive end of the court in recent weeks. The Knicks defensive net rating in the month of February was 5th best in the league at 108.4. They have held 5 of their last nine opponents to 100 or less points, three to 90 or less, which includes San Antonio and Boston, two of the best teams in the league. NY’s defensive efficiency rating in their last 5 games is 2nd best in the league at 1.045PPP allowed. Toronto is no slouch on that end of the court either with the 7th best defensive net rating in the month of February at 109.9. In the Raptors last 5 games they have the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.098PPP allowed. The other big aspect that favors a lower scoring game here is the pace of play for each team. The Knicks are 24th in pace of play on the season, the Raptors are 20th slowest. Toronto doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well, ranking 22nd in 3PT% so they can’t exploit the Knicks defensive weakness, 15th in 3PT% allowed. New York is 6th in opponents FG% allowed at 45.7%. New York will have a tough time making shots against a Raptors D that is 9th in FG% allowed and 6th in 3PT% D. This will be the 4th meeting this season between these two teams and should be similar to the previous three which all ended with 118 or less points being scored.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 220 LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - If this game is anything like the first two meetings this season, it’s going to be a solid UNDER result. In the first meeting of the season between these two teams, they produced just 177 total points. In the rematch in January, they combined for 205 total points. Neither threatened the O/U set by Vegas of 224.5 and 221.5. If you eliminate an OT session in one of last season’s meetings, these two have combined for 222 or less in 6 straight meetings. The Clippers are coming off a game Sunday and are 6-4 UNDER this season when playing without rest. Golden State has had some ups-and-downs and are only slightly above an average NBA team. For the season they rank 17th in offensive efficiency and shoot it at 46.2% overall which is 21st. They have a defensive efficiency ranking of 9th, allowing 1.139-points per possession. The Clippers D has slipped this season ranking 19th but in their last 5 games they’ve been much better on that end of the court allowing 1.114PPP which is the 13th lowest number in the NBA over that stretch of games. Offensively the Clippers rank 13th in oEFF on the year but are trending down at 1.100PPP over their last 5 games which ranks 24th worst in the league. We like the history aspect of this rivalry and expect a lower scoring game Monday night.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -2.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 pm ET - This is a big game today between two teams that have a strong dislike for each other. Both teams currently stand 37-23 SU on the season and are fighting for the 4th seed in the Western Conference which would mean home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. Denver has won all 3 meetings this season and we don’t see that trend changing here. The Nuggets are a tough loss a couple nights ago in OKC and look to rebound here. They have been exceptional off a loss this season with a 17-5 SU record and an average margin of victory in those games of +7.6ppg. That’s a reoccurring theme with the Nuggets who are 63-26 SU off a loss since 2023. Minnesota has won 5 of their last six games but they came against Portland twice, the Clippers without Leonard, Dallas and Atlanta and 3 of those wins were at home. Despite the 4-1 record in their last five games, the Nuggets have the better efficiency differential of 10.8 compared to the Wolves 3.2. These two teams have a lot of similarities statistically with the exception being 3PT defense. The Nuggets are the best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 39.3%, the Wolves rank 17th in 3PT% defense allowing 36%. Minnesota shoots it well themselves from Downtown, but the Nugs rank 6th in 3PT% defense. Normally the Wolves enjoy a rebounding advantage but not in this game as Denver’s rebound percentage on the season is better than Minnesota’s. Given the circumstances we like Denver with this short number of -2.5

ASA NBA play on OVER 230 LA Lakers at Golden State Warriors, 8:40 pm ET - This is an interesting number and the oddsmakers are telling us how to bet this game. These two teams met in early February and the O/U set on that game was 220.5 which ended with 204 total points being scored. This number has been set significantly higher than that for several reasons, including baiting you into an Under wager. In that previous meeting the Lakers were without Luka who makes L.A. better offensively and worse defensively. The other more important factor in this game is how these teams are currently playing. Both are top 10 offensively in efficiency ratings over the past 5 games. The Lakers are 10th in oEFF averaging 1.166-points per possession, the Warriors are 7th at 1.187PPP. Those numbers are much better than each team's season long oEFF numbers. The same trend can be seen defensively as the Warriors are currently 25th in defensive efficiency in the last 5 games allowing 1.180PPP, the Lakers are 22nd in dEFF allowing 1.175PPP. In the Warriors last 5 games they have finished with 230 or more points four times. The Lakers have played 3 straight lower scoring games but that was against Phoenix, Orlando and Boston who all rank in the top 13 for the season in dEFF and are currently better than GST on that end of the court. The OVER has cashed in 6 of the last seven meetings between these two rivals and we expect that trend to continue tonight. BET OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 NY Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - The Bucks have somehow flipped the switch and are playing their best basketball of the season with an 8-2 SU streak their last ten games. In that run they have wins over Cleveland, Miami, OKC and Orlando, all playoff contending teams. The Bucks are currently 3 games behind the Hornets for the 10th seed in the East and the play ins for the playoffs and look like a team desperate to make the postseason. Over the last 10 games the Bucks Net rating is +4.6 which is eerily close to the Knicks Net rating of +5.0 over that same stretch of games. In fact, Milwaukee has the 2nd best offensive rating over that same 10-game stretch at 120.6. The Knicks offense struggled in their most recent game against a Cavs defense that is top 12 in the league in defensive efficiency rating. The Knicks are going to have success here against a Bucks D that ranks 22nd in dEFF allowing 1.174PPP and is vulnerable to good 3PT shooting. The Knicks rank 5th in team 3PT% shooting, the Bucks rank 22nd in 3PT% defense. On the flip side, the Bucks will have their own success from beyond the arc with their 2nd best 3PT% going up against a Knicks D that ranks 15th in 3PT% allowed. It was a long time ago, but in the first meetings of the season between these two teams the O/U’s were 228.5 and 232.5, both significantly higher than tonight’s number. Those two early season games finished with 227 and 232 total points and the OVER has now cashed 4 straight in the series. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 at Orlando Magic, 7:40 pm ET - The Rockets are off a game last night but that was against the lowly Kings so we’re not as concerned about the back-to-back as we normally would be. The Magic have their own scheduling issues as they are off a West Coast trip and playing on just 1 day rest. Not to mention, the Magic had 3 straight down to the wire games that took a toll physically and emotionally. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games at home but those W’s came against the Bucks, Jazz and Nets. In their last seven games at home against above .500 teams they are just 2-5 SU. Houston is 5-1 SU in their last six road games and they have some very impressive wins on that resume: at Charlotte, OKC and at Detroit. One of those five wins came in late February at Charlotte where they were favored by -4.5 points and the Hornets/Magic grade out similarly so this line isn’t as high as it should be based on that comparison. Houston has done extremely well against the Eastern Conference this season with a 15-5 SU record and an average MOV of +8.1ppg in those contests. Houston has a slightly better Net Rating over their last 10 games than the Magic with their offense being the difference between the two teams. The Rockets are the 10th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.4% and should see plenty of shots go through the bucket against a Magic D that allows 47.7% (23rd). Orlando will have a tough time scoring in this one as they shoot just 46.3% (20th) going up against the long-athletic Rockets who have the 5th best FG% D in the league allowing 45.5% shooting by opponents.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -10 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:30pm ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Hawks winning 119-98 – leading wire-to-wire – in the blowout victory. The line in that game was -13.5 but the oddsmakers have adjusted with the news that Jalen Johnson will be out tonight for Atlanta. The underlying story to this game is the fact that the Hawks won by 21-points despite shooting well below season standards at 39% overall and 24% from the 3-point line. Johnson also played just 5 minutes in the game so it’s not like he had an impact on the recent clash. Atlanta will be better prepared without him here and they go 27-points 7 rebounds and 4 assists from recently acquired Kuminga. Washington has 16 wins on the season and is in tank mode for next year's draft. Washington already has a decent young roster and if Anthony Davis and Trae Young get healthy, along with a top pick in the draft, this could be a solid playoff contender next season. Washington is 5-22 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -12.2ppg. They have lost 9 of their last ten on the road and 7 of those nine losses came by double-digits. Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives, have a deep enough roster to win this game by double digits without their All-Star Johnson. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - The Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is very good in the 2nd night of a back to back but this is going to be a different animal tonight. Boston is playing their 4th straight road game and the previous three were all ‘big’ games against the Warriors, Lakers and Suns. This will also be their 3rd game in four nights AND they’re playing in altitude in Denver. The other schedule disadvantage for Boston is the fact the Nuggets have been off Sunday and were embarrassed on national TV by the Warriors. Denver is getting a little healthier with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun giving them some much needed depth. Denver is 46-28 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.0ppg. They are exceptional off a loss with a 42-17 SU record since 2024, winning those games by an average of 5.3ppg. Boston has been fantastic on the road this season at 20-10 SU but this is a difficult spot for them. Denver should have an advantage from beyond the arc with the best 3PT% in the NBA at 39.4% going up against a C’s defense that ranks 17th in opponents 3PT% shooting. Denver also has the 8th best 3PT% shooting defense in the NBA which should contain the Celtics 10th rated 3-point shooting. We will lay the points with the home team that is rested and off a loss.

ASA NBA play on OVER 223.5 Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are coming off an impressive win over the 76ers after looking awful against the Bucks in their previous game. They put up 126 points against the Sixers and have scored 118 or more points in 5 of their last six. They’ve also had a few games where they struggled to get stops, allowing 139 to Milwaukee, 123 to the Heat and 141 in another game against the Bucks. Let’s face it, the Warriors defense isn’t what it’s been in the past allowing 47.2% shooting by opponents ranking 18th worst in the NBA. The Warriors give up the 23rd most 2nd chance points per game and allow 50.5 points per game in the paint, ranking 16th. New Orleans can do some damage on the inside with an offense that grabs the 11th most offensive rebounds per game and is 12th in 2nd chance points scored and 1st in points in the paint at 57.4 per game. Golden State is going to put up points in this game too against a Pels D that is 25th in opponents FG% allowing 47.9%. The Warrior have gone OVER the total in four straight games, the Pelicans are on a 3-0 OVER streak. Let’ get on this OVER before the oddsmakers adjust a favorable number.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, 9:40 PM ET - The Rockets get a reprieve in their schedule these next two games as they face the Jazz tonight with the Kings up next. They have also faced a difficult stretch of 7 games against playoff contenders including the likes of New York, OKC and Boston. Those defenses are all significantly better than the unit they’ll face tonight so expect a scoring outburst by the Rockets. Utah is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.225-points per possession. The Jazz are 28th in opponents FG% allowed, 28th in 3PT% allowed and a bottom third team in most every other defensive stat category including rebounding. The Rockets are shooting 47.2% as a team this season (11th) and rank 7th in 3PT% so they won’t need a ton of possessions to put up a big number. Houston is the 3rd slowest team in the NBA but the Jazz are 3rd fastest so this game should be around league average in terms of pace of play which is fine for this scenario. The last game the Rockets faced a team similar to the Jazz (Pacers) the two teams combined for 253 total points. Utah has allowed 120+ points in 4 of their last six and have gone OVER 236 in 4 of 5 road games and here we are working with a total of 228.5 at the time of this posting. In the two meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 230 and 258 total points. Easy call here on the OVER.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Phoenix Suns, 8pm ET - At first glance it looks like you are paying a premium price with the Blazers in this game but the situation warrants a bet on the visitor in this showdown. Portland is coming off a humiliating loss to the Nuggets in which they allowed 157 points. That type of embarrassment gets the attention of these NBA competitors. Prior to that beatdown the Blazers had won 4 of five games and the other loss was in Minnesota. The game before that solid stretch of games was a home loss to the same Suns team. The Blazers played without their leading scorer in that game (Avdija) and the Suns had Brooks who is out today. Portland is also rested – the Suns are not. Phoenix played an OT thriller last night and this will also be their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they have faced a gauntlet of opponents in OKC, SAS and Orlando last night. Even with their blowout loss to the Nuggets, the Blazers have a better overall efficiency differential in their last 5-games than the Suns. Portland has an eDIFF of +7.2 in their last 5 games, the Suns are minus -5.1 in that same span. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the Suns in this game…so bet the Blazers instead!

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30pm ET - Normally this would be a spot to potentially fade the Nuggets after they destroyed the Blazers on Friday night 157-103 and we would expect a letdown. But the Nuggets are facing the Warriors and there’s no way they won’t be pumped for this game. Plus, the Nuggets are getting healthy with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun and looking like the team that can contend for a Championship. The added benefit from their blowout win the other night is the fact that no starter played more than 30-minutes. Golden State is nothing more than a lower tier playoff team that is more reputation than potential. The loss of Jimmy Butler is just too much to overcome and Steph Curry can only do so much. Draymond Green is on a steep decline and is not close to the player he once was. Even Porzingis won’t move the needle on this team moving forward. Golden State just played two other teams at home (Boston, San Antonio) that are on a similar level as the Nuggets and they lost both by double-digits. Denver is 21-10 SU on the road this season with an average margin of victory of +6.0ppg. They have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Warriors and we are betting this one gets ugly early and the Nuggets cruise to a 10-plus point win.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -10.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10pm ET - Both teams are coming off games/wins last night but the Heat have the advantage because of the situation. Memphis dressed just 9 players last night and are without their top two scorers in this game (Jerome and Morant) along with recently traded Jaren Jackson Jr (19.2ppg). That 60-points per game is tough to replace with a bunch of unproven players on the roster. The Grizzlies beat a tanking Jazz team last night after trailing by 12-points at halftime. The Heat are off an impressive win in Atlanta last night 128-97 with Tyler Herro returning for 23 minutes and scoring 24 points. Miami is 9-4 SU when playing without rest this season with an average MOV of +6.0ppg in that scenario. Memphis is 2-5 SU on the 2nd night of a back to back with a negative average differential of minus -7.6ppg. The Heat have scored 123 or more points in 3 of their last four games which will be tough to match for a Grizz team that ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 1.136 points per possession. Not to mention, the Heat have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing just 1.093PPP. A motivated Miami team will win this home game by 13+.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -4 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - The market reactions to this number tell us the bet is on the Pelicans in this one. The money and tickets are coming in on the Bucks, yet the line has moved from the Pels favored by -3 to the current number of -4. Not only that, these two teams just met in early February in Milwaukee and the Pelicans were favored by 5-points on the Bucks home court. Milwaukee did win that game in OT 141-137 but the Bucks shot WELL above expectations at 61% for the game, 45% from Deep. You can bet there will be a regression in those numbers on the road in New Orleans. The Pelicans are not incentivized to tank the rest of the season as they don’t have any draft stock to improve their position. They are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall with an average +/- of +1.1ppg. The Bucks meanwhile are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games with a negative average differential of minus -2.5ppg. Another clear indicator the Pelicans are playing better is their net rating over the last 10 games of plus +1.0 compared to the Bucks -2.5. The Bucks are 3-6 SU their last nine road games with a negative average differential of minus -7.7ppg. We will follow the betting markets contrarian advice in this one and take the home team.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -8.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - You don’t have to concern yourself with home court advantage here as the Kings boast a 9-19 SU record in their own building with the second worst average scoring differential of minus -6.8ppg. The Magic come into this game off a home loss to the Bucks and fall into a favorable ATS situation as a road chalk. Orlando currently sits 7th in the East and are capable of moving all the way up to a 4 seed which would be home court advantage. They are also is a situation where they could fall out of the playoffs all together or slip to the 9 or 10 seed. Sacramento on the other hand has the worst record in the NBA at 12-44 and are tanking for a better draft position. They have benched Zach LaVine for the season and are limiting other starters minutes including Sabonis. They went into the All Star break with a pair of losses by 28 and 26 points and have currently lost 14 straight games. Orlando hasn’t lived up to expectations this season and have played a large part of the season without the services of the Wagners. Frans is out for this game but Morits is back in action. We don’t have a problem laying the pints with the Magic on the road here and expect a double-digit win by the visitor.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers –7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 pm ET - Heading into the All-Star break with the final games before the break taking place Thursday night and one of those is the Blazers vs Jazz game. These two teams are heading in opposite directions with the Blazers in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase sitting 9th and only a few games behind the 8th place Warriors. Utah on the other hand has 18 wins on the season and, though off a surprisingly big win last night over the Kings, indications are they will tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. The other night in Miami, the Jazz were playing well through 3 quarters and leading the Heat, then unexpectedly sat the starters in the 4th Q. This Jazz roster with the addition of Jackson Jr and the emergence of Keyonte George has a bright future but we won’t see their best play the rest of the way this season. Portland is playing well right now with a close loss to Phoenix before then winning 3 in a row against the Grizzlies and Sixers prior to last night's loss at Minnesota. Portland has the 11th best Net rating over their last 5-games and they had covered 5 straight road games before the blowout loss to the Timberwolves last night. The big advantage the Blazers have in this matchup in their defense which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.165-points per possession. Utah on the other hand is LAST in the NBA in dEFF allowing 1.229PPP. Portland has beaten the Jazz twice already this season with the most recent win coming in early January by 20-points. This one could be just as ugly as the last one.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - The Hornets will be shorthanded tonight with suspensions likely coming for Diabate and Bridges stemming from a brawl the other night against the Pistons. That’s a significant loss for the Hornet in one key aspect of their advantage in this game against the Hawks. These two teams just played a few days ago and the Hornets outrebounded the Hawks by 19. Diabate and Bridges are the two leading rebounders for the Hornets. Charlotte has been on a fantastic run of late but when you look at season long statistics there isn’t much of a gap between these two teams with the Hornets having a +1.9 efficiency differential compared to the Hawks -1.2 eDIFF. Atlanta shoots it at 47.3% on the season (11th best) and the Hornets allow 47.3%, 19th worst in the league. The Hawks should enjoy a solid advantage from beyond the arc in this one as they are the 6th best 3PT shooting team in the league going up against the 24th 3PT% D of the Hornets. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team at 46.1% (22nd) which will have a tough time exploiting a Hawks defense that is 22nd in FG% allowed. We like the Hawks here playing with quick revenge from the loss just a few days ago on their home court when the Hornets were at full strength (Diabate and Bridges combined for 21 rebounds and 37 points in that game). The road team has covered 3 of the last four meetings is this series. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -8 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET - The Phoenix Suns have one very strong trend working in their favor in this matchup and that’s a blistering 25-11 ATS record in conference play this season. Conversely, Dallas is the worst team in the NBA in conference play with a 12-22 ATS mark. The Suns are winning at home by an average of plus +5.6ppg on the season. The Mavs are losing on the road by that same average but it’s a negative number of minus -5.6ppg. Dallas is 2-10 SU in their last twelve road games. Phoenix is off a loss in this game and that’s been a favorable betting situation this season as they are 14-7 ATS when coming off an ‘L’. The Mavs are a poor 3PT shooting team at 34.5% on the season (25th) and will find it difficult against a Suns D that has the 5th best 3PT% defense allowing 34.7%. Granted the Mavs defend the arc better than anyone but the Suns should have above average success here with the 10th best 3PT% in the NBA at 36.5%. Phoenix is also the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league and 7th in second chance points which will be the deciding factor in this outcome. Lay it with the Sun over the Mavs.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +7.5 at Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Jazz and fade the Heat who are off a game yesterday in Washington. Not only that, but the Heat had two huge games prior to that against the Celtics and Hawks and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. Utah is playing their 5th straight road game but had yesterday off and previously played in Orlando so travel is not an issue. The Jazz have looked much better in recent games with a 7-point loss at Toronto, a win in Indiana, a 2-point loss in Atlanta and a 3-point loss to the Magic (4-0 ATS). Utah actually has a pretty solid roster now with Nurkic, Markkanen, Jackson Jr (Memphis trade), Baily and George as their starting five. Miami will be missing two of their leading scorers on Monday with Powell and Herro both listed as out here. Miami is a respectable 14-12 ATS at home this season but their average MOV is +4.3ppg which isn’t enough to get it done tonight against the Jazz and the points. Scheduling can’t be overlooked in this one so while Miami may win, we expect it to be close.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs LA Clippers 3 PM ET - The Clippers made a few big deals at the trade deadline when they shipped two starting veterans in Zubac and Harden to Indiana and Cleveland. They brought in some youth with Garland, Mathurin and Jackson but those three are not expected to play here. The Clippers are 1-2 SU in their last three games after going on a torrid streak with Harden/Zubac on their roster. We expect a regression in their game in the short term as the new starters will need to acclimate to the new scheme in L.A. Clearly the oddsmakers are suggesting the same as they set this line higher than normal. They are baiting us into betting on the Clippers and we won’t fall for the trap. The Wolves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pelicans at home and should bounce back in this one. Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and have been solid at home this season with a 17-9 SU record. The Wolves have won 5 straight against the Clippers and should enjoy an advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Minnesota is the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA and the Clippers rank 25th in 3PT% defense. That will be the difference in this one and gets the Wolves a double-digit home win.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:40PM ET - This is going to be a battle between depleted rosters as both teams have key contributors out for tonight’s contest. Of the two teams, the Lakers are in much better shape. Los Angeles will be without Luka tonight but the Warriors look like a MASH unit with both Curry brothers out, Jimmy Butler is lost for the season, Porzingis is not ready to suit up and Podziemski is listed as questionable. The Lakers also have Austin Reaves back in the lineup after missing extended time so he can pick up the scoring void left by Luka. Reaves scored 35 points in limited action in the Lakers last game versus the 76ers. L.A. has won two straight and 7 of their last ten games. In that 10-game stretch they have the 9th best Net rating in the NBA and the impressive part is that 8 of those 10 games were on the road. Golden State is more pretender than contender and have a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games with the 15th rated Net rating. The Lakers played well against the red hot Sixers the other night with Luka missing the majority of that game after getting injured. Golden State’s defense is not as good as their reputation ranking 18th in opponents FG%, allowing 47% on the season. That will be a problem against the best shooting team in the NBA as the Lakers check in with a team FG% of 49.9%. The Lakers are the much healthier team here and should win this home over the Warriors by 8+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This is a value bet according to our model which is projecting 230.3 total points being scored in this game. Miami comes into the game playing at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.3 average possessions per game. They are a below average team in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but average 120ppg as a result of pace. The Heat are 4th in fast break points per game and 3rd in points in the paint. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.220-points per possession. They don’t need a lot of possessions to score 116ppg because of their high volume of 3PT attempts (2nd most in the NBA). The Celtics rank 10th in 3PT% and have the 9th best eFG% in the league at 55.4%. Miami is expected to have Norman Powell (leading scorer) and Andrew Wiggins back for this game so their starting lineup is mostly intact (missing Herro who has been out 11 games). Boston is healthy after giving Brown and Hauser rest in their last game against the Rockets. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two teams and those two games had O/U’s set of 231.5 and 234.5. Both games finished with 233 or more total points. We expect similar results tonight and will side with the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - The Mavericks made some big trade noise yesterday and made a statement of building around Cooper Flagg through the draft in the future when they sent Anthony Davis to Washington. Tonight, they will have a reduced roster as many players will not be available, plus PJ Washington is out and starting center Gafford is questionable. The Spurs are coming off a game last night but only one player on the roster played more than 30 minutes and they’re as deep as any team in the league. Dallas is mired in a 5-game losing streak and a big reason why is their regression in shooting percentages at 43.9% over that stretch which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. They are not a good 3PT shooting team to begin with at 34.2% (26th) and have been even worse in that same stretch of games shooting just 31.9% from deep. San Antonio has the 6th best efficiency differential in the NBA at plus +5.1 and are only 1 of four teams in the entire NBA that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are capable of winning on the road as they’ve shown this season with a 15-10 SU away record. We like San Antonio by 9+ points.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +5 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This game has extra meaning for the coaches as Rockets head man Ime Udoka was the Celtics coach before getting fired for inappropriate behavior prior to the 2022 season. Joe Mazzulla was named interim coach before getting the gig full time. The Celtics made a big trade yesterday and landed center Vucevic of the Bulls for Simons who didn’t fit in Boston’s rotation. We mention that as there aren't more trade rumors swirling around these locker rooms, so we don’t have to worry about those distractions with our wager tonight. Boston grades out higher in our power ratings than the Rockets and would be favored on a neutral court yet are getting a generous +5.5 points here. A big reason is the fact that they played last night in Dallas. But no team in the NBA is better than Boston when playing without rest. The Celtics have gone 35-13 SU under Mazzulla when playing without rest and have an average margin of victory in those games of +9.4ppg. That’s way too big of a sample size to be a fluke. The Rockers were recently favored by -3.5 at home vs. the Wolves, -4.5 and -2.5 at home against the Spurs which tell you enough about this number. Boston is 16-10 SU on the road this season with the second best average MOV of +6.8ppg, behind only the Thunder. The Rockets are 17-4 SU on their home floor but the average MOV in those games is +7.6 which barely gets a cover in this one. Even if KD suits up for this game, we like the Dog and the points.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 NY Knicks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - The Knicks have won 6 straight games and it’s not about their offense. New York has a defensive efficiency rating of .941 points per possession allowed in their last 5 games, best in the NBA. They are holding opponents to 90.2ppg, allowing 43.4% shooting overall and 34% from beyond the arc in that same stretch. Do you know who’s been the worst offensive team in the league in the month of January? You guessed it, the Washington Wizards! The Wiz have an offensive net rating of 107.5 in January, scoring just 110ppg. They have an eFG% of 52.8%, 7th lowest average in January. The Wiz aren’t a great defensive team by any means, but they have held 5 of their last seven opponents to 112 or less points. New York is coming off a marquee game against the Lakers on Sunday and have 3 HUGE games looming against the Nuggets, Pistons and Celtics so they’ll be content with a win and won’t look to run the score up in this one. Bet UNDER!

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - The Sixers lineup took a hit with the announcement that Paul George is suspended for a drug violation. I wonder if they’ll ever drug test LeBron? George had been playing well and it looked like the 76ers were rounding into form. Philly was playing well with a 6-4 SU record in their last 10 games, but a closer look reveals 9 of those ten were at home. Not only that, but only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record. The Sixers went 10-7 SU in January with an average +/- of +2.4ppg. The Clippers have flipped the switch and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. L.A. had won 16 of their last twenty games and then were coming off a loss in Denver most recently. They responded immediately last night with a big win at Phoenix and I expect them to ride momentum from the win over the Suns and parlay it into a home win over the Sixers too! The Clippers had the 9th best Net rating in the NBA in the month of January at +3.3 and were 6-1 SU in the month at home with an average MOV of +7.7ppg. L.A. They already started the new month with a blowout win and that was even without Harden (personal) who might be back here. Either way I like the home team here off the 24-point margin easy blowout win last night. Lay it with the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:10 pm ET - Two of the bigger markets square off Sunday in a West vs. East showdown when the Lakers travel to New York to face the Knicks. This will be L.A.’s 7th straight road game and it comes against a Knicks team that has won 5 straight. The Lakers have won 4 of their six road games on this trip but they lost to the two teams of the Knicks caliber (Cavs and Clippers). Los Angeles beat a bad Washington team most recently by 32-points but had lost prior to that game by 30 in Cleveland. The Lakers have an impressive SU road record of 17-10 SU but surprisingly have a negative scored margin despite the winning record. A big part of that is their strength of schedule on the road. New York on the other hand is 19-6 SU on their home court with the second highest average scoring differential of +10.5ppg in the Garden. The Knicks went through a mini-slump and lost 4 straight games but since, have ripped off 5 straight wins and all but one of those came by double-digits. These are two big brands with some of the biggest stars in the game, but the Knicks are significantly better with the 5th best overall efficiency differential compared to the Lakers 17th. This line is light according to our metrics and we will side with the home team Knicks in this one.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -12.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 3:40pm ET - The Bucks season is swirling down the drain as we speak with the trade talks surrounding the entire team and players potentially being dealt with Giannis. The root of the problem in Milwaukee though is GM Horst and head coach Doc Rivers. That is another story I can’t go into right now. As for today, at first glance this seems like a high number for Boston to cover but in reality, it’s not. The Celtics were just favored by 12-points at home against the Kings and even -10.5 recently versus the Pacers so this double-digit number is not out of line. The Bucks were also recently a +10.5 point dog in Philadelphia, lost by 17-points and the Sixers aren’t as good as the Celtics are right now. Boston has the second-best average scoring margin in the month of January overall and the 2nd best Net rating. The Bucks will have problems containing the Celtics offense in this one as they allow the 3rd most 3PT attempt rate at 43.5% and Boston takes the 3rd most 3-pointers in the league. Milwaukee’s defense overall isn’t good ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.173-points per possession on the season. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.211PPP. The Bucks offense is even worse, ranking 23rd in oEFF and will have a tough time scoring against the C’s 12th ranked defense. Milwaukee is reliant on their 3PT shooting but the Celtics defend the arc as well as anyone in the NBA.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans Philadelphia 76ers 7:30 p.m. ET - Philly's been lighting it up lately, posting the third-best team eFG% over their last five games and averaging over 116 PPG in that stretch. Tyrese Maxey is on fire at 29.4 PPG with elite shooting splits (47.3% FG, 38.7% from three), and when he's attacking and pulling defenders, the floor opens for everyone else. The Sixers rank sixth in rim attacks and convert at a high clip with the league's fourth-best FT% (81.4%) — they get downhill, draw contact, and rack up points methodically. New Orleans has had their struggles with a 13-37 record, but they lead the league in rim-attack frequency — they push volume inside even if efficiency's dead last. That paint-heavy style can lead to high-possession games, especially against a Philly D that's just average (allowing 1.151 points per possession). The Pels give up the most three-point attempts in the NBA (45.3%), a glaring weakness that Maxey and Philly's shooters will feast on. NOLA's coming off a big home win last night (scored well in that one), but on the back-to-back with travel and fatigue, their defense (27th in efficiency, 1.197 PPP allowed) likely cracks open more — they won't get stops consistently against this Sixers attack. We expect plenty of points in this one to push it OVER the total.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs 12pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets are catching +4.5 at home against the San Antonio Spurs early this afternoon tilt. San Antonio rolls in at 32-15, sitting pretty near the top of the West, but dig deeper and the shine fades: they've gone a middling 9-8 SU their last 17 games, alternating wins and losses over the past two weeks with setbacks to squads like Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans that aren’t playing near as well as the Hornets are right now. No back-to-back road wins since before the holidays, and while their road numbers look solid (15-9 SU away, +3.6 eDIFF on the road, +3.9 average scoring margin), that margin won't reliably cover a -4.5 spread against a red-hot Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets (21-28) are the hottest story in the East right now, riding a five-game win streak and leading the NBA in net rating for January. Their season eDIFF sits at +1.6 (12th league-wide), but over the last five? A blistering +17.6 eDIFF, second only to the Knicks. Charlotte's offense ranks fifth in 3P% at 37.3%, primed to exploit a Spurs perimeter D that's middle-of-the-pack (17th, allowing 36% from deep). The Hornets have covered in two of their last three as home dogs and we expect them to keep this game close throughout or win outright.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. ET - Injuries continue to wreck the Grizzlies — they're missing Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Santi Aldama (knee), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) again, with Ty Jerome listed as doubtful (calf). That's a brutal hit to their backcourt, frontcourt depth, and interior presence. Memphis has dropped four straight, including a home loss to these same Pelicans just a week ago. Meanwhile, New Orleans is a bad team at 12-37, worst in the West, but they're showing signs of life. They've gone 2-1 in their last three straight up (the loss coming against the defending champs OKC Thunder), and over the last ten games they've won four while posting a more respectable net rating (18th league-wide) compared to Memphis sitting at 24th. The Pels attack the rim at an elite clip (No. 1 in frequency), which is bad news for a Grizzlies defense that's ranked 24th against rim attacks and 25th in three-point attempts allowed. Memphis loves post-ups (second in frequency), but without their bigs and Morant creating chaos, that identity gets neutralized quickly in NOLA's paint-focused scheme. The Pels shoot threes like they're allergic (dead last percentage), but they don't need to bomb from deep here — just keep pounding inside against a shorthanded, vulnerable Memphis frontcourt. Head-to-head, Grizz have taken two of three this season, but the latest meeting flipped the script with NOLA winning outright. This line feels light given Memphis' depletion and road struggles (1-5 SU road/neutral games). Pelicans cover the -2 at home.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226 Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40pm ET - These two defensive powerhouses met back in late December on this same Target Center floor and combined for just 219 total points with an O/U set around 232 finishing well UNDER. We expect another low-scoring grind tonight in what should be a heavyweight battle of elite defenses. The Thunder enter as one of the league's premier defensive units, ranking No. 1 in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just around 1.069 points per possession and holding opponents to the lowest FG% in the NBA. Minnesota, meanwhile, is no slouch on that end either— they rank among the top defensive teams league-wide, anchored by Rudy Gobert and a stout interior presence. Their home defense has been particularly stingy allowing 1.084PPP – the 3rd lowest number in the NBA. Neither team plays at a blistering pace—OKC is average, Minnesota 10th in pace —and when these two meet, the tempo grinds to a halt. The December clash saw poor shooting nights from both sides (around 37% FG for each), limited transition opportunities, and a focus on defense over offense. The line opened a touch higher but settled here at 226.5, and our model sees this staying comfortably in the low 220s or even dipping below. Three straight UNDERS are about to be four in a row in this series.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231 Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, 7:30pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Atlanta and combined for 238 total points with the C’s winning 132-106. That made 3 straight games between these two teams of 230 or more total points being scored and 6 of the last seven. In the most recent game on Jan 17th we saw 193 field goal attempts which is 15 attempts higher than league average. Granted the Celtics shot extremely well at 51% overall and 42% from deep, but the Hawks were well below their standards at 37% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Atlanta is starting to jell offensively and are coming off 132 points against the Pacers two nights ago. The Hawks had 3 players (Daniels, Alexander-Walker and McCollum) all score 20 plus, then had 4 others score 12 or more points. The Celtics are coming off a low scoring/possession game with the Blazers and will be anxious to put up a big number in this one. Boston has the best offensive efficiency rating in the league at home this season at 1.216-points per possession and face an Atlanta D that is in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Atlanta is the 2nd fastest paced team in the league which has them ranked 9th in points per game at 117.8. We are not asking these two teams to produce a ridiculously high number here, we are just asking them to be slightly better than NBA average (231.6ppg). Bet OVER here.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8pm ET - Scheduling and rest will play an important role in tonight’s outcome between these two Eastern Conference foes. Philly is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days. Milwaukee had their most recent game cancelled with poor weather so they’ve had 4 full days off going into tonight. The Bucks have covered 6 of their last 8 in that scenario dating back to 2023. Granted, the Bucks will be without Giannis tonight who is expected to miss the next 6 weeks with an injury but there is still enough talent on this roster to keep tonight’s game within double-digits. Milwaukee is 11-12 ATS on the road this season with an average negative margin of -4.9ppg, good enough for a cover in this one. The Sixers are 11-14 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. Philadelphia doesn’t shoot it great at 45.6% (26th) which makes it difficult to cover big numbers. In fact, the 76ers have only been double-digit chalks 5 times this season. Within the past 2 weeks the 76ers were -7 at home against the Pacers and won by 9-points. The Bucks without Giannis grade out better than Indiana. The Bucks have been double-digit dogs just 3 times this season and they’ve covered all three. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8:10 pm ET - Why are the Lakers favored here? This line makes absolutely no sense given the current play of both teams. Chicago has won 4 straight games and 6 of their last eight. Included in that run are impressive wins over the Clippers, T’Wolves and most recently the Celtics. In fact, in the games against the Celtics on Saturday the Bulls were +3.5-points at home and Boston grades out significantly higher in our power rating than the Lakers. Chicago has the 3rd best average scoring differential in the NBA over the past 5-games at +11.0ppg. In that same stretch of games, they have the best overall eFG% at 60.9% and tonight they face a Lakers D that is 25th in defensive net rating on the season. L.A. ranks 27th in opponents’ FG% allowed at 48.6% and is 25th in 3PT% D. The Bulls are top 10 in both overall team FG% for the year and 3PT%. The Lakers are coming off a win in Dallas on Saturday which was a meaningful game to Luka against his old mates. The Lakers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and the 3 wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Mavs, Nuggets w/out Jokic and Pelicans. Chicago has won 7 of their last eight at home. Back the Bulls in this one.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 9 :10pm ET - Even without Kawhi Leonard we like the Clippers minus the points over the reeling Nets. These two teams are heading in direct opposite directions right now with the Clippers on a 14-3 SU streak, the Nets are 2-12 SU their last 14. L.A. is 7-1 SU their last eight at home with a net rating of +9.5, the 3rd best differential in the NBA over that span of games. The Clippers an eFG% of 55.9% in that same 8-game stretch and have been shooting lights out. When it comes to Net ratings, only the Jazz have a worse number than the Nets who are minus -10.2 over their last 15 games. Brooklyn has an average loss margin of -9.9ppg over that same 15-game period. The Clippers 8-1 SU streak at home is really impressive when you consider 7 of those eight wins all came by 8 or more points. Even without Leonard tonight we like the Clippers to notch a double-digit win over the struggling Nets.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30 pm ET - The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 230.5 Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Celtics are off a game last night and will do everything in their power to slow the Bulls down tonight in their building. Boston is the slowest paced team in the NBA overall and has a 5-2 Under record this season when playing without rest. Chicago is one of the fastest paced teams in the league at 101.5 possessions per game, but they have slowed in their last 5 games with 99 possessions per game which is 11th fastest. Both teams are playing significantly better on the defensive end of the court in recent games with each team ranking top 12 in defensive efficiency in their last 5-games (Celtics 5th, Bulls 12th). These same two teams met in early January and produced 216 total points. Last season, three of the four meetings finished with 225 or less points. There are some clear betting indicators that are signaling UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40pm ET - These same two teams met just about 2 weeks ago in Denver and produced 212 total points. That was with Denver missing 5 of their top seven players including Jokic and Murray. That previous game, plus the Nuggets coming off an extremely low scoring game last night in Washington, has forced the oddsmakers to set an unusually low number on this game. Denver is 6-2 to the OVER when playing without rest this season and those games have gone OVER by an average of +5.3ppg. This game is going to feature two of the best shooting teams in the NBA and two average or below defenses. The Nugs are the best shooting team in the NBA at 49.8% and hit 39.7% from deep (1st) but they rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.180-points per possession. Milwaukee ranks 5th in team FG% at 48.3% and are the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the league, but like the Nuggets they don’t play great defense ranking 21st in dEFF. We won’t need a lot of possessions in this game to cash this bet with a number that is more than 15-points lower than the league average. The Bucks and their opponents have scored 216 or more points in 8 straight games at the Fiserv Forum. In the Nuggets 25 road games this season they have combined with their opponent to score 216 or more points 23 times. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30pm ET - The Suns are currently playing their 6th straight road game in Atlanta and looking forward to going back home after this game. To start this road trip the Suns played in Miami which gives us a great comparison for tonight’s outcome. Phoenix and Miami had an O/U number of 233.5 and went well OVER that number with 248 total points. The comparison between Miami/Atlanta is this: They both play at a high rate ranking 1st and 2nd in pace, have comparable offensive efficiency stats and the Hawks are far worse defensively. Atlanta is going to put up points and give them up in this game. As we mentioned, the Hawks are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA and will force tempo. The offense hasn’t been great in recent games as they’re working on incorporating the new trade pieces of McCollum and Kispert into the lineup. In their most recent game against the Grizzlies (246 total points) the offense started to click with 47% shooting overall and 44% from deep. Plus, the Suns defense on this road trip hasn’t been as good as their overall season statistics as they are allowing 1.166-points per possession in their last 5 games compared to the 1.133PPP they allow on the season. Phoenix also has Jalen Green back in the lineup who provides additional offensive firepower for the Suns. In the last 5 meetings between these two teams they have combined for 238 or more total points. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10pm ET - I knew this was a bad number immediately and the Heat shouldn’t be favored on the road against the Blazers and to no surprise the line moved quickly to Portland as the favorite. The Blazers are playing well right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games overall and they’ve won 7 of their last eight at home. Portland has the 8th best Net rating of +5.3 in the NBA over that 10-games span. On the flip side, the Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and they have the 26th worst Net rating in that time frame of -5.9. Miami has been even worse on the road in recent games with a 1-4 SU record their last 5 away from home with a negative Net rating of minus -13.7. Earlier this season the Heat were +3.5 points at home against the Blazers and won 136-131. This time around it’s the home team Blazers that notch the win.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40 pm ET - Both teams are beat up right now with several key players less than 100%. OKC’s injury list includes Caruso, Williams, Hartenstein, and the 'other' J. Williams. The Bucks current injury report includes Turner, Porter Jr and Giannis is on a minutes restriction. The Bucks defense isn’t what it should be considering this roster but they still have the 12th best FG% defense in the league. The Thunder have the best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.068 points per possession and the #1 FG% D in the NBA. OKC is average in terms of pace of play and the Bucks are much slower at 98.4 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Last season these two teams met 3 times with the UNDER going 3-0 and those three games averaged just over 208 total points per game. Injuries, tempo and defense have us on the UNDER in this one.

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.