08-21-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET
The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors! Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season. Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare. Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season! Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener). Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season. His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally. In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season. The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next. Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too. Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game. Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result. Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday
|
08-20-20 |
Rangers v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: San Diego Padres (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rangers have lost 4 straight and are 3-7 on the road this season. The Padres have won 3 straight and are 7-4 at home this season. San Diego is also riding the positive momentum of a huge walk-off win last night that left the Rangers stunned! After tying the game late on a homer the Rangers were able to force extra innings. They then took a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th only to watch the bullpen implode and the Padres won it on a Manny Machado grand slam in the bottom of the 10th! Couple the hot versus not factor and the clubhouse mood for each team (particularly after last night's finish) and you have a great situation to be taking a look at San Diego in this one. The Padres are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Not only because of all of the above but also the pitching factor here. Dinelson Lamet has been every bit of a young ace for the Padres. The San Diego right-hander throws plenty of heat and then keeps hitters off-balance with a devastating slider. That is a lethal combo and Lamet has a 1.59 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He has piled up 36 strikeouts in 28 and 1 / 3 innings and opponents are hitting only .152 against him. On the other hand, the Rangers Kyle Gibson is a very hittable pitcher. He has allowed opponents to hit .278 against him so far this season and has allowed high opponents BAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons (.275, .292, .298). Last season Gibson had a 5.45 ERA in night games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday.
|
08-19-20 |
Diamondbacks v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Oakland A's (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET
The A's have been one of the best teams in MLB this season but got blasted at Arizona yesterday. Now the series shifts to Oakland and it is payback time tonight. The Diamondbacks are only 5-7 on the road this season. The Athletics are 9-3 at home this season. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has pitched well early this season but, keep in mind, this has been in rather limited action. He has only made 2 road starts and last season on the road he was 6-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his road outings. The A's are starting Jesus Luzardo and he is off his worst start of the young season. We like taking talented quality pitchers off a rough start and he is now back home where the southpaw is undefeated in 4 outings (2 starts) and has compiled a 2.60 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .217 against Luzardo in his home games and he has fanned 17 in 17 innings! The A's were 52-29 at home last season so they are a combined 61-32 in home games the past two seasons combined. The Dbacks have a losing record on the road when combining last season and this season and the A's are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout in this bounce back spot and the best value is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Oakland A's -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.
|
08-18-20 |
Phillies -120 v. Red Sox |
Top |
13-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET
The Red Sox are off a series with their most bitter rivals, the Yankees, and got swept and have now lost 8 straight games. Boston is having a rough start to the season and it won't get any easier here. While the Sox are a very down team and even their body language shows they have clubhouse issues right now, the Phillies are a rejuvenated team and coming off a welcome day off on Monday. Philadelphia has rested bullpen arms now and the team is feeling very good about themselves after sweeping the division rival Mets over the weekend. A key clutch walk-off win seemed to turn this team's fortunes around in the Mets series and Philly keeps it going on Tuesday in Boston per our computer math model. The Red Sox Zack Godley is winless with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. On the other hand, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struck out 15 in his 10 innings of work so far this season and has his sinker working very well again. Eflin has always been known to have great stuff and he seems to be rounding into form nicely for the Phillies and takes on a Red Sox team that is not that familiar with him. That is because this is an AL/NL match-up. But the Phillies lineup does have some hitters with experience (and some good results) against Godley from all his years in the National League prior to going to Boston. This is a classic case of hot versus not in terms of the trending of these two teams and we also would give the pitching edge and situational edge to the Phillies here. Per our computer math model, a road rout expected. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-17-20 |
Nationals v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees. He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better. That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest. Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington. Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets. However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings. Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint. Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season. He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season. Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games. Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories. Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.
|
08-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors! The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories. They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one. May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable. What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May. Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him! This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May. The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium. Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-14-20 |
Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves are off a 6-3 loss to the Yankees Wednesday but they had 11 hits in that game. Atlanta entered that game having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and 2 of those games were only 7 innings long because the Braves played a double-header during this stretch. The point is that the Braves have been swinging the bats quite well. The Marlins also have enjoyed some recent success at the plate. Overall, Miami has been a big surprise early this season and they are 8-4 on the year which makes this a big showdown in the NL East. The Marlins have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 8 victories this season and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their past 6 games. Getting each team to 4 runs in this game guarantees us a winning ticket with this total set at 8.5 runs. We like our chances in that regard as Miami will have plenty of confidence at the plate in their home stadium and off a 14-11 win over Toronto on Wednesday. The Braves .437 slugging percentage ranks them 8th in the majors out of 30 teams. Miami starter Pablo Lopez is winless in his 5 career starts against Atlanta. The Braves start Kyle Wright in this one and he is now 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in his 14 career appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level. He gave up 2 homers in his lone career start against the Marlins and Miami will bring momentum into this one from the successful finish to the series with the Blue Jays. The Marlins also are thrilled to finally be able to play a game at home in Miami after being away for so long due to the Covid-19 situation. Bet the OVER in the Miami Marlins game in early evening action Friday.
|
08-13-20 |
Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
11-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout. Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here. 4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs! When they win they generally win big. Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin. Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system. But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA. In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA. The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies! Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.
|
08-12-20 |
Cubs v. Indians -116 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-116 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET
Look for the Indians to bounce right back from yesterday's 7-1 home loss. The Cubs start Kyle Hendricks here and his road struggles have continued. Last season he was great at Wrigley Field but went 5-8 with a 5.02 ERA away from home. Opponents hit .290 against Hendricks when he was on the road. This season he has made 3 starts and the home outings went fine but his road outing saw him allow 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The Indians had won 5 of 6 games prior to yesterday's loss and Cleveland has averaged scoring 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 victories. The offense is showing some life and their bullpen has been among the best in the majors early this season. Additionally they hand the ball to a starter in great current form for this one. Carlos Carrasco gets the call here and the same Reds team that just clobbered Hendricks when they faced him was absolutely handcuffed by Carrasco. He held them to 1 hit in 6 innings while striking out 8. Carrasco dealt with injury issues last season but he has put all that behind him and looks like the same pitcher that went 46-24 with a 3.32 ERA from 2016 to 2018. The Cubs are off to a great start this season but have been fortunate with a home-heavy schedule. Chicago is known for being much better at home than on the road. The Cubs entered last night's contest at Cleveland having gone 1-2 in their 3 most recent road games and Chicago was outscored 25-9 in those 2 losses. The Indians respond after last night's loss and their pitching edge and home field edge lead the way in this one. Indians were 17 games over .500 at home last season while the Cubs were 15 games under .500 in road games last season. Per our computer math model, this situation is offering tremendous line value considering all of the above factors. The forecast here is a home rout. Bet the Cleveland Indians on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-11-20 |
Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-10-20 |
A's v. Angels +120 |
Top |
9-10 |
Win
|
120 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET
One of the most common betting strategies in baseball is to ride streaks. In that case we are most definitely bucking the trend here but this is not a normal MLB season either. Yes the A's are the hottest team in baseball but there is a reason they are priced as a rather small favorite in this spot. It is simply an awful spot for Oakland. The Athletics just wrapped up a series sweep of the hated division rival Astros which included a benches clearing brawl in yesterday's game. Suffice to say emotions ran very high throughout that series and this is absolutely a flat spot for Oakland now as the A's are on the road to face the Angels. Oakland has a great record on the season and has won 9 straight games but they've also had an edge in that they have only played 4 road games. By the way, the A's hit just .198 in those 4 games away from home and now face a pitcher, Julio Teheran, whom they are not familiar with as he had spent his career in the National League. Teheran enters this game having held opponents to a .235 batting average while compiling a 3.67 ERA - those are his career numbers! He is a solid starting pitcher and certainly gets the nod in this game over the A's Sean Manaea as he had a lot of early season struggles. The left-hander is 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA in his first 3 starts and has not been able to make it through 5 innings in any of those starts! Los Angeles has a .433 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them 3rd in the American League. Per our computer math model, this game has upset written all over it. Bet the Angels on the money line in late night action Monday
|
08-09-20 |
Tigers -130 v. Pirates |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET
The surprising Tigers have won 4 straight road games. It also seems the time off due to their games with the Cardinals being cancelled did this lineup a lot of good as Detroit has exploded for 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Part of that included giving Steven Brault trouble out of the bullpen Friday night as the Pittsburgh left-hander faced 6 Tigers and did not record an out! Now he gets the start here on Sunday because Joe Musgrove has right ankle soreness and has been scratched. Overall this is a bad Pittsburgh team with a 3-12 record that is the worst in the majors. Sunday they face the Tigers best starting pitcher so far this season as Spencer Turnbull continues to impress. A devastating slider for hitters to contend with has helped lead to 14 strikeouts in 11 innings as the Detroit right-hander has been sharp with a 2.45 ERA in his first two starts. This one, per our computer math model, is likely to turn into a road rout as Detroit stays hot at the plate and the Pirates overall early season struggles continue. Bet the Tigers on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-08-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET
The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season. Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday. That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here. He has been very sharp already this season. He also is at his best at home. Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park. The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success. Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games. Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season. He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts! In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18! Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres. Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.
|
08-07-20 |
Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team. It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going. KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots. In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher. Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs. Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win. Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season. Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one. He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season. Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight. Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well. Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power. Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.
|
08-06-20 |
Yankees v. Phillies OVER 9.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET
There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well. However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight. In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one. Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations. Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound! Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors. Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header. Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts. Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level. In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above. You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.
|
08-05-20 |
Reds v. Indians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games. That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games. Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-04-20 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-101 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET
The value here is huge. This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one. Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season. Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox. The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him. He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well. Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard. He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face! While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous. As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason! That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home. The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible. Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday
|
08-03-20 |
Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games. That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts! As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games. Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.
|
08-02-20 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent. That is highly unlikely to happen again today. The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season. Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one. That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning. Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox. Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game. This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx. That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result. The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals. He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year. Suffice to say early indicators point to issues. Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season. We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday
|
08-01-20 |
Padres v. Rockies +110 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
110 |
10 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rockies took a 5-4 lead to the top of the 9th last night. The Padres then tied it on a solo bomb and then won it on a 3-run shot with 2 outs! Big win for San Diego for sure but we look for the home team to bounce right back today! The Padres are off to a good start this season but that has them a little over-valued now and we're going to take advantage. Coming into this season San Diego and Colorado were very close in terms of their win total projections for the shortened 2020 season 60-game schedule. That said, for the Padres to now be favored on the road in this situation is a little bit much! San Diego finished 13 games UNDER .500 in road games last season. The Rockies finished 5 games OVER .500 in home games last season. In looking at this pitching match-up today note that San Diego's Joey Lucchesi struggled as he got deeper into his first start. Also, Lucchesi was great at home last season but went 2-6 with a 6.22 ERA in his road starts last season and Coors Field tops the list of unfriendly sites for a visiting pitcher! As for the Rockies starter, Kyle Freeland, his first start saw him face the minimum 3 batters in each of the final 3 innings of his 6-inning start! He got stronger as the outing went on! He looked like the pitcher we saw in 2018 whom went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA including 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his home starts. Though Freeland struggled at home last season he also struggled overall last season but his hard work to "return to form" coming into this season has a great chance of paying off and it sure looks like he's back the way he pitched in his first start! Keep in mind, unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland was better at home than on the road in both 2017 and 2018. He is very familiar with pitching at Coors Field and gets the better of Lucchesi in this one and the Rockies get immediate payback for last night's late loss. Bet the Rockies on the money line in evening action Saturday
|
07-31-20 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
10-11 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night. However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week. The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night. While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season. Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves. He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler. That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career. Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start. The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years. In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result. Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday
|
07-30-20 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats. Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight. John Means gets the start for the Orioles. The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue. That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher. Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York. The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter. Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen. Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league. Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles. Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble. Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters. All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday
|
07-29-20 |
Rays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here. He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season. Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with. Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing. The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs. Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well. Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game. The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start. He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season. Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game! Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel. Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.
|
07-28-20 |
Blue Jays v. Nationals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET
The Blue Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game. The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win. The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits. All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it). The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss. The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season. He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign. Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC. Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury! We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one. The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup. Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties. The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park. Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some. On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter. At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.
|
07-27-20 |
Angels +108 v. A's |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 3:40 PM ET
The A's are up 2-1 in this 4-game series but this has been a series that could have gone either way thus far. Arguably the Angels could be up 3-0 and should be up at least 2-1 in this 4-game set. That factor along with the pitching edge here is why this line opened up with Oakland as such a short home favorite. The Angels opened up as a very small underdog for a reason. The first game between these 3 teams show a 7-3 final but the A's hit a grand slam for the win in the bottom of the 10th. The second game saw the Angels win 4-1. Then Sunday's game saw Shohei Ohtani of the Angels allow 5 earned runs without recording an out in the first inning! That set up the A's perfectly but the Angels outscored Oakland 4-1 the rest of the way. We like the resilient Angels to again respond off a loss just like they did in Saturday's game. Los Angeles starts Griffin Canning here and he had a 3.80 ERA in his day game starts last season while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. He enters this start off a great tune up to wrap up summer camp as he pitched 6 scoreless innings in that start and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 5. Canning is ready for an A's team that has not been swinging the bats particularly well early this season. Look for the Angels to get to A's starter Chris Bassitt early and often. In looking at the A's starting pitchers he is the one least ready for the season in terms of having arm strength built up. Bassitt has a history of struggles with the Angels and that includes allowing 11 runs (7 earned) in 9 innings spanning his two career home starts versus LA. This is a potent Angels lineup that has the right match-up here for a breakout game and, per our computer math model, they roll to a road rout in this one. Bet the Angels on the money line in afternoon action Monday
|
07-26-20 |
Twins v. White Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
14-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here. He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. On the road was a different story for Maeda. Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home. Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins. It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday. Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this. Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series. The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here. The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday. Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter. Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here. The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on. Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game. Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-24-20 |
Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
23 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.
|
10-09-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET
It is hard to fathom any scenario that involves many runs being scored in this match-up. Game 5 first round post-season elimination game, all bullpen arms rested and at the ready thanks to yesterday's off day, and a pair of dominating starting pitchers on the mound. The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg and he has an incredible 0.64 ERA in his 5 post-season appearances (4 starts) in his career. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler and he has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 and 2 / 3 innings of post-season work. Buehler has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 career post-season starts. Strasburg has held opponents to just 11 hits in 23 innings spanning his last 4 post-season appearances (3 starts). The under has cashed in 7 of the Nationals last 9 playoff games and, per our computer math model, that trend continues on Wednesday. We look for the under to improve to a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times that the Dodgers were in a playoff game facing elimination. Pitchers duel expected here! Bet the UNDER in LA Dodgers in evening action Wednesday
|
09-17-19 |
Phillies v. Braves -1.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET
Great set up here as both teams were off yesterday and the Braves still have plenty to play for while the Phillies are down and out. Philadelphia has seen their wild card playoff chances slip away due to a late season slump while the Braves are still looking to officially lock up the NL East. Also, Atlanta still has home field motivation as well as they battle with the Dodgers for the #1 spot in the NL. Of course the above, plus a big pitching edge, is why the Braves are priced as a big favorite here. We'll avoid the big price on the money line by making use of the run line in this match-up. Atlanta is available for a play here without juice if we lay the 1.5 runs and there is certainly likelihood of a home blowout here. The Phillies are 6-15 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Braves are off a shutout loss on Sunday and Atlanta is 18-8 this season after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game. Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 in the last 6 starts Vince Velasquez has made against the Braves. Velasquez has gone 0-5 in those 6 games and has compiled an 8.46 ERA in those 6 outings! This is not outdated history either. All 6 of these starts have come since the start of last season. Also, Velasquez enters this start struggling overall as he has a 5.48 ERA in the 14 starts he has made since rejoining the rotation. Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Braves here and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 4 of the starts he has made against the Phillies in his career and that includes a pair of outings this season as well. Additionally, Keuchel enters this start in top current form as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts overall. 21 of the Phillies 29 losses since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 29 of the Braves 39 wins since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Lay it as Atlanta bounces back from Sunday's shutout loss! Bet the Braves -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday
|
08-30-19 |
Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-132 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Washington Nationals (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Nationals are a huge favorite on the money line in this one but we can get them in the -135 price range by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line. The fact is that Washington is catching Miami at the perfect time for a blowout win. While the Nationals were off last night, the Marlins were doing battle with the Reds in south Florida and ended up with a rare win in a game that went 12 innings. Not only did Miami play late into the night yesterday, they then had to travel to DC for this game. While the Nationals are well-rested the travel-weary Marlins are going to try and do something they haven't done all month - win back to back games. The fact is that Miami is just 7-20 in the month of August and they are 0-6 after each of their first 6 wins this month. 5 of those 6 defeats came by 2 or more runs and that is not a big surprise considering 17 of the Marlins last 21 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Miami starts Elieser Hernandez in this one. He has been solid at home this season but has gone 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his 7 road games (5 starts) this season. The Nationals start former Marlin Anibal Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is coming off a superb outing versus the Cubs. Also, Sanchez has a 3.09 ERA in his 6 career starts against his former team and he absolutely dominated them in the most recent outing on July 4th. This season began with a tough April for Sanchez but he never looked back after getting hot in May and has a 3.12 ERA since May 1st. The better pitcher, the much better team, and very fair line value here all add up for what should be a dominating home win at a good price. The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games and 14 of those 16 victories came by a margin of 2 or more runs. We'll lay the very fair price here with Washington on the run line in this one. Bet the Nationals -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday
|
08-25-19 |
Yankees v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees Domingo German has struggled in the 2nd half of this season. Since the all-star break the right-hander has a 4.96 ERA. On the full season, German has been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. He has a 5.82 ERA in away games this season! The above correlates with a big edge for the home team in this match-up considering Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for Los Angeles. The Dodgers southpaw is a dominating 19-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 37 inter-league appearances in his career. Kershaw is also 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his 13 starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Of course the above factors point to why the Dodgers opened up as a big money line favorite in this game. Where we see the value in this match-up is with utilizing the run as LA is available in the +115 range by laying 1.5 runs with the run line. The Dodgers 86 wins this season have featured 62 victories by a multiple-run margin. 33 of the Yankees 47 losses this season have come by a multiple-run margin. Prior to yesterday's 1-run loss, 12 of New York's last 13 defeats came by 2+ runs. The Dodgers last 3 wins have all come by a single run but one can consider that an aberration. Prior to this stretch, 20 of the last 23 Dodger victories came by 2 or more or runs. Look for a dominating home win with Kershaw over German in this one. Bet the Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday
|
08-17-19 |
Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game between these teams was 6-2 through 3 innings but miraculously did not go over the total of 10.5 as the game ended up a 7-3 Blue Jays win. Look for Saturday's game to feature more scoring throughout the game. The Mariners are going with a bullpen game here as Reggie McClain will be the starter. The concept of "bullpen games" was first, or at least mostly, employed by Tampa Bay. It made sense too because it worked. However, that is because the Rays are known for having a quality bullpen. Again this season the Rays are one of the best bullpens in MLB. As for the Mariners, they are one of the worst pens in the majors. That said, it doesn't work so well for them and this is particularly true when Seattle is up against a red hot offense. The Blue Jays have a .553 slugging percentage this month. That ranks them 3rd in the majors behind only the Yankees and Astros! As you can, Toronto is keeping pretty good company of late. The Mariners lineup has been a little quieter of late but this still a Seattle team whose .455 slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 4th in the AL. The Mariners will take advantage of an inconsistent Trent Thornton. The Toronto right-hander is off a very strong start against the Yankees but he has a knack for following up quality starts with bad ones.. In fact, the last 3 times Thornton was off a start in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, he has been rocked all 3 times allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 3 starts which lasted a combined 8 and 1 / 3 innings.. Given these numbers and this distinct pattern with Thornton as well as the fact that McClain was pitching in the single A level of the minors this season, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a slug-fest at Rogers Centre Saturday afternoon. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in afternoon action Saturday
|
08-15-19 |
Cubs v. Phillies +137 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
137 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+) over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Phillies finally made a change that so many in Philadelphia were calling for and it paid immediate dividends. Philly fired their hitting coach and are now using former manager Charlie Manuel (led them to World Series title in 2008) as their interim hitting coach. How did the first game go? It was an 11-1 blowout for the Phillies and this was against Cole Hamels whom is certainly no slouch on the mound. As a result, Thursday's game is offering exceptional line value because many are playing the "won't get swept" game here with the Cubs. Why will they not get swept is our response? The Cubs have been garbage on the road all season and this has been particularly true of late. Last night's loss dropped the Cubs to 23-37 on the road this season. Are things getting better though? Absolutely not! The Cubs are 10-21 their last 31 road games and they've scored just 3 runs so far in this series! Now they face a crafty lefty, Drew Smyly, whom is making his first ever appearance against the Cubs. In other words, there is a lack of familiarity for the Chicago hitters in terms of facing Smyly. In his first 4 starts since coming to the Phillies, Smyly has held opponents to a .224 batting average. The Cubs have Yu Darvish on the mound for this one and he does have strong numbers this season. However, this is the 3rd straight season that he is getting hit at least 60 points higher by left-handed hitters compared to righties. The Phillies active roster has 5 left-handed bats plus 3 switch-hitters among its position players. In theory, all 9 hitters tonight could step in on the left side if Philly wanted to go that route. They won't though because right-handed bats Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura (3 of their best hitters mind you) are likely to be in the lineup tonight. That means between lefties that give Darvish trouble and righties that are ultra-dangerous, the Phillies lineup will be stacked tonight and the switch to Manuel at hitting coach already has given the clubhouse a much more relaxed and positive atmosphere and that can be a key when it comes to hitters' psyche. In their last 16 road games, the Cubs have been held to 4 runs or less 13 times. In those 13 games the Cubs are averaging just TWO runs per game! Look for the Phillies to dominate again at home in this one. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
08-11-19 |
Phillies +101 v. Giants |
Top |
6-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
26 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
Entering Saturday's action, the Phillies had won 8 of their last 13 road games. Certainly the Giants have been trending the other direction (the wrong way) ever since the calendar turned the page to August. San Francisco entered Saturday's action having lost 7 of their 9 games thus far this month. Based on the pitching match-up Sunday evening these trends are quite likely to continue. The Giants are starting rookie Conner Menez. The left-hander has a 5.73 ERA in his first two starts at the MLB level. Even though both outings were at home (pitcher-friendly Oracle Park), Menez allowed a pair of homers in each start. The southpaw will have his hands full with a Phillies team that has plenty of pop in its lineup and, that also entered Saturday, having reached double digits in hits in 4 of its last 6 road games. While the Giants start a rookie here, the Phillies will have veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound and he is likely to have extra "fuel in the tank" for this start. Arrieta has been monitored closely as he continues to pitch through a bone spur in his elbow. He has still been giving Philadelphia a solid 4 to 5 innings in his recent starts. Arrieta's most recent outing also involved him being pulled too soon as he was still going strong through 5 innings and should have been allowed to work deeper. This is an encouraging sign for Arrieta and he should fare well against the Giants. He has historically pitched well at this ball park. Overall, in outings against the Giants, Arrieta has a 2.30 ERA in his 43 innings against San Francisco since the start of the 2015 season. The Phillies lost Arrieta's most recent start (though not his fault) and they had previously won 9 of his 13 prior outings. Philadelphia has not 2 consecutive Arrieta starts in 3 months - dating all the way back to the first half of May! The Phillies, entering Saturday, are 16-7 on the road in a money line range of -100 to -150. The Giants entered Saturday's action 9-16 (36%) this season against NL East opponents. The veteran outduels the rookie in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Sunday
|
08-10-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET
Last night tempers erupted in this divisional match-up and the dugouts emptied onto the field right at the conclusion of the game. As a direct result, expect the hitters from both lineups to be "locked in" to the offerings of the pitchers in tonight's match-up. Without a doubt intensity is sky high and this is a pressure packed situation for two starting pitchers whom are unlikely to handle it well. The reason for that is that Alex Young is a rookie and this will be the first time a team is seeing him for a 2nd game. He came out of the bullpen for 2 and 1 / 3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. In his most recent road start Young faced a bad Marlins team and yet he gave up 8 hits in 6 innings while striking out only 2 batters. The Arizona southpaw faces a much tougher test here. The only team in the National League producing more runs in home games than the Dodgers is the Rockies. That said, consider the home venue that Colorado plays in compared to the one that LA calls home. The fact is that the Dodgers are arguably the best hitting team in the National League as imagine what their lineup would do if Coors Field was their home! As for the Diamondbacks, their .470 slugging percentage in road games this season does rank them #1 in the National League. They are facing Kenta Maeda and he is feeling the pressure as he knows his rotation spot could be surrendered to another hurler very soon. Part of the reason for this is that Maeda hasn't earned a win in any of his starts since mid-May! Maeda may not handle the intensity well in tonight's game and, in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings, Maeda has allowed 8 runs (5 earned) in his last two home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Arizona has pounded 3 homers in those 9 and 1 / 3 innings at Dodger Stadium. The over is 9-3-1 in Maeda's last 13 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Prior to last night's under, the over was 5-1 in Arizona's last 5 games and the Diamondbacks averaged 8.4 runs per game in those 5 games. The Dodgers, prior to last night's loss, were 8-1 in their last 9 games and had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 8 victories. Considering all of the above, take advantage of the low total being offered in this one and expect a very entertaining game tonight as intensities are on the rise in this divisional rivalry. Bet the OVER in the Dodgers game in late evening action Saturday
|
08-03-19 |
White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-128 |
24 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET
The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday
|
07-31-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals +103 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
With yesterday's loss, the slumping Cubs have now lost 6 of 8. In those 6 defeats Chicago has scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game! On the other hand, the Cardinals have been red hot as they have won 13 of 17 games! St Louis has scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in their 10 most recent victories. They opened up as a -120 favorite here but the markets swung it the other way and the Cubs ended up as high as a -120 favorite in early trading action. This is likely due to Kyle Hendricks success against the Cardinals but both of his outings versus St Louis this season were at Wrigley Field. That is significant because Hendricks has been fantastic at home this season but he has been a different pitcher on the road. Hendricks is 3-6 with a 4.91 ERA away from home this season. The Cards Miles Mikolas struggled in his most recent start against the Cubs but that was at Chicago. Entering that start, St Louis was 4-1 in Mikolas 5 career starts against the Cubs. He is highly likely to bounce back here at home where he has a sizzling 2.15 ERA in 10 starts this season! The home/road dichotomy here is a huge factor in the pitching match-up of Mikolas versus Hendricks. Additionally, the Cardinals are the hotter team and more relaxed at the plate right now. Being at home helps in that regard too. As for the Cubs, they are slumping and are starting to squeeze the sticks a little too tight as a result. In other words, Chicago's hitters are pressing at the plate and their recent results are a direct reflection of this. Bet St Louis on the money line in evening action Wednesday
|
07-25-19 |
Indians v. Royals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and that is a big edge as they see these starting pitchers again in their very next starts. Although Adam Plutko has enjoyed success against the Royals this season, both starts were at home. In fact, Plutko has had a very home-heavy schedule since he joined the rotation and that has certainly helped his results. Plutko entered this season with a 6.83 ERA on the road in his 8 appearances (5 starts) in his young career. In 2019, Plutko has logged 70% of his innings at home which has helped his overall success. On the road this season, just as in the past, the Indians right-hander has struggled. Opponents are hitting .323 against Plutko when he is away from home this year. He'll be facing a Royals team that has momentum on its side after a 2-0 series sweep over the Braves. Though Kansas City didn't hit well in the short series, they now return home where they went 6-1 in their most recent home-stand. The Royals scored an average of 7 runs per game on that home-stand. The Indians are also likely to score well tonight. Cleveland enters this series 15-4 after their 4-0 shutout win last night at Toronto. Their sticks have been hot during this stretch and that includes averaging 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 games against left-handed starters. Thursday the Indians face struggling lefty Mike Montgomery whom they just enjoyed great success against last week. Montgomery has a 6.83 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .347 against him this season. In 6 games (1 start) against the Indians in his career, the Royals southpaw has a 9.53 ERA. Behind Montgomery is a KC bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors. The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games against a left-handed starter. The over is 5-1 in Kansas City's last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Combining all the above factors with a drop on this total from 10.5 to a 10 and we see huge value with the over at Kauffman Stadium and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left field. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Thursday
|
07-21-19 |
White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET
This total was already a short number when it opened up at an 8.5 and it has since dropped to a 7.5 which is offering phenomenal value with the over. Blake Snell gets the start for the Rays and he has great career numbers against the White Sox. However, especially in today's MLB, players change teams with such frequency that it is important to look at hitter on pitcher cumulative stats rather than just team stats. In this case, the White Sox have 6 players (whom all were starters in yesterday's game) that are a combined 13 for 30 (.433 batting average) with 3 homers against Snell. Those 6 players are Abreu, Garcia, Jay, McCann, Rondon, Sanchez. We look for Chicago to enjoy some success here at the plate against Snell. The Tampa Bay lefty will be opposed by rookie Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Cease, per scouts, has been said to have pitched better than his stats would indicate in his first two starts at the MLB level. However, it should also be noted that he faced two of the worst teams (Royals and Tigers) in the American League. Now Cease faces one of the top teams in the AL and, since the All-Star Break, the Rays are tied with the Astros for the most homers (19) in the American League. Cease does come in as a highly touted prospect but this was his first season above the AA level of the minors and, at AAA Charlotte he had a 4.48 ERA and opponents hit .284 against him. Those are certainly not dominating numbers at the minor league level. Tampa Bay's lineup will take advantage and bounce back after yesterday's disappointing low-scoring extra-innings loss. Chicago is 7-3 to the over this season after a one-run win. The over is 15-5 in Rays games when they are a home favorite of -200 or more. . Tampa Bay is also 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 5 or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
07-18-19 |
Astros v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET
Mike Trout might be back in the lineup for the Angels tonight. Either way, this one has the makings of a very high-scoring game. The Angels only scored 2 runs in last night's loss but Los Angeles entered that game having won 5 straight games and having scored an average of 9 runs per game in their 6 prior games! The Astros put up 11 runs in last night's contest and Houston has now averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game in its last 4 games against the Angels. The Astros will be facing Matt Harvey. The right-hander recently returned to the rotation and the line score would indicate that he was much better in his first start back. However, Harvey gave up a lot of hard hit balls and he was very fortunate the damage wasn't worse. Also, the Astros have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Harvey has an 8.91 ERA in his 7 starts at Angel Stadium this season. As for the Astros Wade Miley, he has been very strong at home this season but has a very mediocre 4.50 ERA in his 11 road starts this season! Miley is facing a red hot Angels lineup and note that Los Angeles ranks 3rd in the American League for runs scored in home games on the season. LA can come up big here at the plate in this one but, the Astros are highly likely to hammer Harvey and this one sees plenty of runs scored as a result. The Angels are 6-3 to the over this season as an underdog of +150 or more. The Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late night action Thursday
|
07-14-19 |
White Sox v. A's OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox are hitting. 271 against left-handed pitching this season which ranks them #3 out of 15 teams in the American League. Chicago will be facing Oakland's Brian Anderson in this one. The A's southpaw has struggled in afternoon games this season. In his 7 day game starts Anderson has been hit at a .324 clip and has a 6.09 ERA! His counterpart on the mound for the White Sox today is Reynaldo Lopez. The Chicago right-hander has been very consistent this season...consistently bad! Lopez has pledged to make adjustments and be better but he has shown no evidence of that. He is 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA on the road this season and opponents have hit .314 against him away from home. Lopez has managed a quality start only twice in his last eight outings! He has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 road starts. He is facing a red hot Oakland team that has won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 9.6 runs per game in those 9 victories. Considering that stat as well as the fact that the Anderson is also likely to struggle for the A's here, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs scored in this match-up. Oakland's over is 7-2 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. This is the 15th Sunday game for the A's this season and so far only 4 of them have resulted in an under. That trend continues with another high-scoring Sunday afternoon game on tap here! Bet the OVER in the Athletics game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-07-19 |
A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's. He had a decent May after being called up from AAA Las Vegas but he has struggled since then. The Oakland right-hander has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 appearances (2 starts). He only allowed 1 earned run in a recent start against the Mariners but he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 in just 4 innings of work so Mengden was certainly very fortunate. That was earlier this season. In prior seasons, Mengden is winless in 4 appearances (3 starts) against Seattle and he has a 5.89 ERA in those outings. You can see why the expectation is for him to struggle here against a potent Mariners lineup. Seattle is slated to use right-hander Matt Carasiti as an opener here. That makes sense as the #1 and #2 hitters in the A's lineup are right-handed sticks. However, Carasiti is likely to go just one inning at most and then he'll give way to Wade LeBlanc. Essentially LeBlanc is the starter even though he is not listed as such. The southpaw is expected to see most of the action here and he has been rocked by Oakland this season. In two appearances (one start) against the A's this season, LeBlanc has an 11.74 ERA and Oakland is hitting .378 against him this season! Behind LeBlanc is a Seattle bullpen that has a 5.07 ERA this season. That is the second worst mark in the American League. Prior to being held to 3 runs in yesterday's loss, the Athletics scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 prior games and they'll bounce back here. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game in their past 10 home games. Not surprisingly, our computer math model is forecasting a dozen runs in this match-up. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-04-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
It looks like Jose Quintana is off a great start at Cincinnati Saturday as the line score for him shows 0 earned runs in 6 innings. However, he gave up one hard hit ball after another after another...it was one of those days where the line drives simply were hit right at guys. Quintana was not fooling the hitters and the lefty entered that outing with a 6.75 ERA in his 6 prior outings. Now the southpaw faces a Pirates team that has been very hot at the plate. With their 6-5 win yesterday, Pittsburgh has won 12 of 17 games and the Pirates have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their past 21 games! Only 7 of the Pirates past 21 games (33%) have resulted in an under. Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Pirates are 13-6 to the over this season in games against left-handed starters. Only 11 of the Cubs 33 games (33%) this season have resulted in an under when they are facing a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh starter Jordan Lyles has a 4.94 ERA in his day game starts this season. Also, he was off to a strong start this season but reality is setting in as he went winless with a 6.00 ERA in his 3 June starts. In 230 career games (128 starts) Lyles has a 5.15 ERA at the MLB level. In other words, his long-term numbers tell the full story! While Lyles got the better of the Cubs way back in early April, weather conditions then were much different than they are now. Also, Chicago has had just 5 unders in their past 15 games and the Cubs have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 13-7-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Cubs blew another save opportunity yesterday and Chicago and Pittsburgh both are in the bottom third of the save percentage rankings. The bullpens will be our friend in this game too! Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Thursday
|
06-29-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 6-3 in the top of the 7th but ended that way for a frustrating push (or loss) for those whom had the over in that one. Look for today's game to more than make up for that shortfall. It will be a very steamy afternoon at Great American Ball Park Saturday and day games like this in Cincinnati have a tendency to turn the ball park into a bandbox with plenty of big extra base hits including some long balls leaving the yard. The Reds Luis Castillo has some great numbers this season but walks are becoming an issue as he has struggled with command of his pitches in recent starts. He is struggling to throw his fastball for strikes and that can lead to free passes for the hitters as well as some mistake pitches that get crushed. The potent Cubs lineup can certainly make Castillo pay. The Reds right-hander has walked 11 in less than 10 innings over his last two starts and that includes an ugly outing at Miller Park last Saturday as another divisional foe, the Brewers, gave him plenty of trouble. The Cubs lineup will do the same here but Chicago's issue in this one is also on the mound. The Cubs start Jose Quintana in this one. The southpaw is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. Quintana is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against Cincinnati. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Quintana. The over is 10-5-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in late afternoon action Saturday
|
06-25-19 |
Pirates v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday
|
06-22-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
After yesterday's surprising pitchers duel, don't be surprised when you witness a much different type of game this afternoon at PNC Park. The Pirates will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has been struggling badly. Archer has only one quality start in his last 9 appearances and he has compiled a 7.33 ERA during this very rough extended stretch. The Padres start Chris Paddack in this one. The San Diego right-hander is returning from a stint with Lake Elsinore in single-A ball as he worked on his repertoire of pitches and also tried to rest a tired arm. Paddack has good numbers on the season but his recent starts are quite telling. San Diego is 0-3 in his last 3 starts as he has compiled a 7.54 ERA in these outings. Also, he is facing a Pirates lineup that had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 9 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. The Padres lineup also should do plenty of damage here. Not only will they take advantage of a struggling Archer, San Diego had scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss. In Pirates home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 9-3 this season. San Diego was 12-5-1 to the over in the month of June before Friday's pitchers duel. Both teams bullpens have some unimpressive numbers too as the Padres have a bullpen ERA of 5.52 this season in road games while the Pirates bullpen ERA is 5.60 this season in home games. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Saturday
|
06-19-19 |
Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
After yesterday's pitchers duel, our computer math model is calling for a big game from both lineups in the Wednesday match-up. That forecast is not surprising when considering the pitching match-up here. The Angels are starting Andrew Heaney in this one. The LA southpaw has had limited action this season and the long-term numbers show a strong trend of struggling on the road. Entering this season, Heaney's past 3 seasons have seen him produce a 2-9 record with a 5.60 ERA in road starts. This will be Heaney's first ever start at the Rogers Centre. He has shown a propensity for struggling in his first start at a venue. The over is 6-2 this season in Wednesday games for the Angels. The over is 5-1-1 this season when the Blue Jays are a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Toronto is starting Aaron Sanchez in this one. After a poor May, the thinking was that Sanchez would bounce back in June or, at least, that is what the Jays hoped for. However, the fact is that things have gone from bad to worse for the Jays right-hander. After going 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in May, Sanchez is now 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in the month of June. Now he faces a potent Angels lineup that has helped produce a 7-3 run for Los Angeles. In those 10 games LA has scored an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Blue Jays, prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate, had scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in their last 6 games. Toronto will take advantage of Heaney's long-term road struggles and bounce back at the plate in this one but look for the Angels to score plenty as well with the poor recent form of Sanchez continuing for the Blue Jays. The result is a game that should see at least a dozen runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-15-19 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
8-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The Padres have a .449 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 3rd out of the 15 teams in the National League. The Rockies have a .460 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them 8th out of all 30 teams in the majors. Colorado should pound San Diego southpaw Eric Lauer in this one. The lefty has some strong recent numbers but pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge for pitchers and Lauer is no exception. Yesterday's game went 12 innings and featured 28 runs scored! Lauer enters this start already having ill feelings about this ballpark. He lasted just 3 innings in each of the two starts he has made at Coors Field in his career. Lauer's ERA in those two starts is an ugly 21.00 at Colorado. The over is 9-3 in San Diego's June games and the Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. The Rockies have averaged 7.6 runs per game over the first 5 games of this 6-game homestand. Colorado has allowed 10.7 runs per game in its last 3 home games. German Marquez gets the start for the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has seen opponents knock him around for a better than .300 batting average in his home starts this season. Marquez has a 4.85 ERA in home starts last season and this season combined. The Padres bullpen has a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and the Rockies bullpen has a 5.05 ERA in home games this season. Marquez only allowed 2 earned runs when he faced San Diego last month but he was very fortunate as he allowed 10 hits in under 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, he won't be so fortunate in the rematch with Lauer and the latter hurler gets knocked around also. The teams combined for 14 innings of bullpen work in yesterday's extra innings affair so both bullpens are a bit tapped out heading into this one! The over is 4-0-1 in Lauer's road starts and 5-2-1 in the 8 home starts Marquez has made this season. All signs pointing to another slugfest in this series Saturday! Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Saturday
|
06-10-19 |
Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
5-6 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET
The Cubs Yu Darvish had success against the Rockies last week but that was at home at Wrigley Field. Now the Chicago right-hander faces them on the road at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Prior to his successful start last week versus Colorado, Darvish was 0-3 with a 10.98 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Rockies and that including an ugly outing at Coors Field. The Rockies are a different team when hitting at home and they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Colorado has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games on their home field. The Cubs should also enjoy a big day at the plate here. Chicago pounded German Marquez last week. The Rockies right-hander has a 14.54 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Cubs. That includes last week at Wrigley Field and last season at Coors Field. No matter the venue, Marquez has a match-up issue when facing this tough Cubs lineup. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 starts Marquez has made at home. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 starts Darvish has made. The over is 18-10-1 this season in Cubs road games. Per our computer math model, a back and forth slug-fest is expected at Coors Field in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Monday
|
06-04-19 |
Rockies v. Cubs OVER 10.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Loss |
-116 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Rockies are 11-2 their last 13 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. In terms of consistency, Colorado has scored 4 or more runs in all 13 of those games! Temperatures today in Chicago will be near 80 and the winds will be blowing out toward left-center field at a strong clip. The set up is perfect for plenty of homers in this one. The last time the Cubs Kyle Hendricks faced the Rockies at Wrigley Field he allowed 3 homers in that start! Hendricks is off a strong start but it was in inter-league action. In his last two starts against National League foes he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings. With how hot the Rockies have been as well as the favorable hitting conditions for this one, there should be runs aplenty for the road team in this match-up. Additionally, the Cubs are set up well to match them run for run here. Colorado is starting Jeff Hoffman and he has a 7.20 ERA in his 3 starts this season. In the last two he allowed 3 home runs in a combined 10 innings of work. Chicago exploded for 8 runs in their win over the Angels yesterday at Wrigley Field and another big day at the plate is expected here per our computer math model. The Cubs have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 6 home games. None of those games resulted in an under as the over is 5-0-1 in those 6 games! Rockies games, when Colorado is off a win, are 19-10-1 to the over this season. The Cubs streak of overs in home games resumes on Tuesday night. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in evening action Tuesday
|
05-29-19 |
Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
14-9 |
Win
|
101 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET
The Red Sox are starting Ryan Weber in this one. The 28 year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors. This is not a good match-up for him. Weber has shown that he struggles more against left-handed batters than right-handed sticks. He will see almost every single batter stepping in on the left-hand side in this one as the Indians are loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. Weber is 2-5 with a 4.41 ERA in his 9 career starts at the MLB level. Cleveland erupted for 7 runs in yesterday's win and has already scored a dozen runs in the first two games of this series at Fenway Park. The Indians are starting Shane Bieber here and he has received a lot of fanfare with striking out 25 batters in his last two starts. However, both of those outings were at home and he also threw 111 pitches just to get through 5 innings in his most recent start. The last time Bieber pitched on the road he allowed 4 homers at Chicago against the White Sox. Now he faces a Red Sox team whose team batting average in home games ranks 2nd in the American League. Boston is known for being tough on opposing pitchers at Fenway Park and they also got to the Indians bullpen yesterday. This total is only a 9 (after opening at a 9.5) and that has made this an even better value play. The total is low because of Bieber's last two starts but Boston is likely to give him trouble here. As for Weber he truly is unproven at the MLB level as a starter and the Indians lineup presents a tough match-up with all the left-handed lumber. Last year at the AAA level in the minors Weber was hit at a .264 clip and this season in 5 starts at the AAA level opponents are hitting .271 against him. He had a good first start this season (last week) but it was against a bad Blue Jays team. The Indians have struggled at times at the plate this season but they have looked strong in this series and hold the match-up edges over Weber in this one. Rather cool evening at Fenway expected here but this total is far too low and our computer math model is calling for this one to fall within a range of 10 to 12 runs before all is said and done. The teams have already averaged 14.5 run per game in the first two games of this series. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Wednesday
|
05-24-19 |
Rays -129 v. Indians |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-129 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rays have had more hits in their past TWO games than the Indians have had in their past FOUR games. Overall, Tampa Bay is the much better team in this match-up and we're going to take advantage of a very fair money line posted on the Rays as a road favorite in this one. The Rays have averaged 6 runs and 10 hits per game their last 4 games. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games and has been held to 4 or less runs in 6 of its last 7 games. The Indians have averaged only 6 hits per game their last 4 games. Cleveland is 0-4 this season in a home game where their line ranges from -125 to +125. The Rays are 10-3 this season in road games where their line ranges from a -125 to a -175. Tampa Bay is ranked 6th in the majors against right-handed pitchers this season in both batting average (.263) and slugging percentage (.461). The Indians are hitting only .224 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 14th out of 15 teams in the American League. Cleveland is facing one of the best lefties in the game today as Blake Snell gets the call for Tampa Bay. The Rays are 3-1 in his 4 career starts against the Indians and Snell has compiled a 1.69 ERA in those outings. Snell enters this start having allowed just 3 earned runs (while striking out 30) in his last 3 starts since May 5th. The Indians hand the ball to Shane Bieber. The right-hander is off a fantastic start against the Orioles but his two prior starts saw him compile a 5.68 ERA. Bieber has made one home start against the Rays in his career and it was last September where TB got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in just 5 and 1 / 3 innings. Per our computer math model, this home start will be very similar to that one. The Rays are 18-7 in night games this season while the Indians are 10-15 under the lights and the price (-130 range) is right for backing Tampa Bay on the money line in this match-up. Bet the Rays in early evening action Friday
|
05-16-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET
This total is only an 8.5 because both Jose Quintana and Luis Castillo are off to strong starts to this season. The result is line value in a spot like this. Yesterday's game totaled 11 runs as there were 5 homers hit. With temperatures rising to the 80 degree mark in Cincinnati today and a light breeze blowing out toward left center field at Great American Ball Park, it will be another game here that gives this venue its well-deserved reputation as playing out like a "bandbox" in the right weather conditions. The fact remains that Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly venues in the majors and both of these lineups have plenty of experience against the division rival starting pitcher that each is facing today. The Cubs Quintana has a 6.32 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He allowed 2 homers in his most recent start against the Reds. The last time the southpaw pitched at Cincinnati he got hammered for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 frames! The Reds Castillo has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs and has walked as many as he has struck out in those 3 outings. The fact is that the Chicago lineup has proven to be a tough one for Castillo in recent outings. The over is 5-1 in Reds home games this month and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in those half-dozen home games. The Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 games thanks in part to their lineup scoring average of 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 13-5-1 in Chicago's road games this season and the over is 9-4-1 when they are off a loss and also 9-4-1 in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs here and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of this low total. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in early evening action Thursday
|
05-12-19 |
Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-15 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
How big of a difference is the jump from the minors to the majors in professional baseball? It is actually a very significant difference and that is the key reason that many guys like Corbin Martin (Astros starting pitcher today) struggle when they make that jump. To put it in proper perspective, one can even see this with looking at some statistics from Martin. In his minor league career he has allowed only 9 homers in 179 innings. However, in his only time at the major league level (in spring training this year) Martin allowed 5 homers in only 16 and 1 / 3 innings. In his MLB debut today, Martin is facing a Rangers team that has a solid .456 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks Texas 7th out of all 30 MLB teams! The Rangers are also starting a right-handed pitcher today. Adrian Sampson gets the call for the road team here and he is facing a Houston teams whose .495 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks them 2nd in the majors and just behind Minnesota in that category. Sampson has pitched well in his 4 relief appearances this season but he has a 6.63 ERA in his 4 appearances as a starter this season! He faces a tough task here as the Astros got to Sampson for 7 hits in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings in his start against them 3 weeks ago. Houston delivered a big win 11-4 win yesterday and the over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. The over is also 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 games. The over is 11-4 this season when Texas faces a team with a winning record and also the over is 9-2 in day games for the Rangers this season. The over is 6-1-1 in Astros games against teams with a losing record this season and Texas also ranks among the worst bullpens in the majors based on ERA so far this season. The Rangers sticks faced some tough pitching so far in this series but take advantage of a rookie right-hander here while the Astros lineup (7.4 runs per game last 8 games) continues red hot at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Astros game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
05-05-19 |
Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox,Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
The White Sox are hitting .263 in home games this season and that ranks them 3rd in the American League! After getting drilled 15-2 yesterday, look for Chicago to deliver a little more offense today as the over is 12-3 this season in games following a White Sox loss. As for the Red Sox, a turnaround was on tap after a slow start to the season as there is simply too much talent in Boston for the slump to continue. Sure enough, Boston has now won 5 of its last 6 games and is on top of all key categories in terms of their offensive production this week. The Red Sox are leading in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored for this week and we look for them to wrap up the week strong against Dylan Covey. The White Sox right-hander has gone no more than 4 and 1 / 3 innings in any of his appearances in the majors or minors this season. Covey is only getting this start because of the injury to Carlos Rodon. In his MLB career, Covey is 5-22 with a 6.11 ERA! The Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello in this match-up. Though he has looked better in his last two starts, Porcello faced the struggling bats of the A's and Tigers and both those starts were at home. Now the Boston right-hander is back on the road where he is winless with an 8.99 ERA in his 3 starts this season. All 3 of those games went over the total and, per our computer math model, this one will too! The over is 12-5 this season when Chicago faces a right-handed starter. Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
04-28-19 |
Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9 |
Top |
14-1 |
Win
|
101 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Mariners bullpen has a 4.92 ERA which ranks them 12th out of 15 teams in the AL. The Rangers bullpen? Even worse! Texas has a 5.13 bullpen ERA and only the downtrodden Orioles pen has a higher ERA than that among AL teams. The bullpens are likely to play a key role in this one too because we don't expect either starting pitcher to last too long. Seattle starter Erik Swanson had a successful MLB starting debut against the Indians but, like so many rookie hurlers, he took a major step back in his next start. Swanson allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and gave up 2 homers (and this was at pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego) as he failed to get out of the 6th inning. Now Swanson goes from facing Indians and Padres lineups that rank near the bottom of the majors to facing a Rangers team that's .491 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks #2 out of the 30 teams in MLB! As for Texas starter Lance Lynn, he'll be facing a Mariners team that is averaging 6 runs per game and 2 home runs per game on the young season. Lynn had a 4.77 ERA last season and has a 6.51 ERA so far this season. Last year he went 5-7 with a 6.01 ERA in his road starts. Also, in afternoon starts, Lynn went 3-5 with a 5.50 ERA last season. He has seen his better years for sure and the Mariners lineup will be in bounce back mode after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The last two times that Seattle was held to 1 run or less in their prior game they absolutely exploded in their next game (11 runs one time and 14 runs the next time). Once again in this rare situation, look for the Mariners to come up big at the plate but the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games and, per our computer math model, Texas will also have a huge day at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
04-25-19 |
Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 2:20 PM ET
It will be cool but not cold for this one at Wrigley Field as temperatures will be near 60 degrees. Also, even though the wind is blowing in it is a very light breeze. With that said, there is excellent line value here because the weather is one of the reasons this total is being held down at an 8 in the early market. The fact is that both Jon Lester and Ross Stripling can be expected to struggle here and behind them are two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season based on ERA. Both the Cubs pen and Dodgers pen have combined ERAs north of 5.00 so far this season! Stripling faced the Cubs twice last season and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse as Chicago got to him for 15 hits (including 2 homers) in 11 innings of work. As for Jon Lester, he is returning from a stint on the disabled list due to a hamstring injury. Those injuries can be particularly tough for a pitcher and, though he had some early season success before the injury he wasn't as dominating as his low ERA might suggest. Lester did get pounded in spring training this year and then, in his early season action, he benefited from facing the Rangers and Pirates as those teams rank near the bottom of the majors against left-handed pitching this season. In his other start he allowed 2 homers against the Braves. Now Lester faces a Dodgers team whose .339 on base percentage against lefties ranks them 9th out of all 30 teams. Also, in day games this season Los Angeles has a phenomenal .608 slugging percentage which is #1 in the majors. The Cubs .360 on base percentage in day games this season ranks them #1 in the National League! You can see why our computer math model is calling for plenty of baserunners and scoring opportunities in this game and the forecast here is for double digits in runs scored. The over is 7-3 this season when LA is off a loss, 5-2 in day games for Los Angeles, and 6-1 in Dodgers games against left-handed starters. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in afternoon action Thursday
|
04-20-19 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
The Red Sox Rick Porcello is not only struggling more than any other Boston starter, he has been one of the worst starters in the majors. Porcello is 0-3 this season with an 11.11 ERA and 3,00 WHIP on the year. When a pitcher is allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning it doesn't take long to get into trouble. Facing the Rays is unlikely to help Porcello. The Red Sox right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. The other starting pitcher today is also likely to struggle. Tampa hands the ball to Charlie Morton and he has good numbers this season but his last two starts have been quite short and he now faces a lineup that has had plenty of success against him. Morton has a 7.82 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox and he gave up 19 hits (including 3 homers) in just 12 and 2 / 3 innings spanning these 3 outings versus Boston. Also, all these starts were recent - all having come since June of 2018. While it is true that the Boston bats have struggled early this season, they have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. The Red Sox also are building confidence at the plate after scoring 6 runs yesterday and now facing a hurler that they've enjoyed plenty of success against. As for the Tampa Bay bats, they have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games. The Rays have averaged 6.5 runs per game during this 10 game stretch. The over is 7-2 in Tampa's last 9 games overall. The over is 7-3 in the Red Sox last 10 games that had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. In this specific match-up, the total opened up at 8.5 and has come down to an 8 in most books this morning. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Saturday
|
04-12-19 |
Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET
This is a battle of southpaws Friday night in Seattle as the Mariners Wade LeBlanc goes to battle with the Astros Wade Miley. We don't expect either pitcher to fare well in this match-up. Houston is hitting .308 against lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League. The Mariners slugging percentage is an incredible .663 against left-handed hurlers this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Astros bats are heating up as they've won 6 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Seattle sticks have been red hot all season and continue to show no signs of slowing down. The Mariners rallied for the 7-6 win at Kansas City yesterday afternoon and that was their 10th victory in their last 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs per game this season. Both lineups are very confident at the plate because they've been scoring plenty of runs and they've been winning. Of course that leads to the ultimate level of high confidence at the plate and neither one of these hurlers is overpowering. Miley gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone road start this season. In his last start at Seattle the lefty struggled and could not complete 5 innings while allowing 3 earned runs in that short start. The way the Mariners are swinging the bats we don't expect this start to go any better. LeBlanc is facing a tough match-up here as the Astros have seen plenty of him and have been very successful against him. The southpaw made 6 appearances (4 starts) against Houston last season and compiled a 6.75 ERA and a .315 BAA. Only 1 of the Mariners 15 games this season has resulted in an under! We see every reason to believe Seattle's strong trending to the over continues tonight. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late night action Friday
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
102 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game found its way over the total early as, surprisingly, both Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had rare poor starts. However, just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front rolled through Boston yesterday. It wasn't a dramatic change in temperatures but still the weather change has brought a rather bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s in the evenings at Fenway Park for these first two games. The hitters managed to get the job done yesterday, despite the cooler temps, but one shouldn't over-react to one game. In fact, now we've seen an over-reaction from the markets as this total went to an 8.5 compared to a 7.5 or 7 in Game 1. That is because the pitching match-up of David Price versus Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't have the flashy appeal of a Kershaw / Sale match-up. However, the fact is each of these guys are very capable southpaws and each are certainly likely to pitch much better than the results seen from Kershaw and Sale yesterday. Ryu is off a poor start at Milwaukee in the NLCS but betting markets have a short-term memory and now they're focused on that when the reality is that the lefty entered that outing with a 0.89 ERA in his 5 prior starts! As for Price, the Red Sox going 14-4 in his home starts this season had a lot do with him firing mostly quality outings in Boston this season. Also, he is coming off the gem versus the Astros in the ALCS and has plenty of momentum coming into this start as a result. Look for a huge effort from both starting pitchers here and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 8.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Wednesday
|
09-25-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
12-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET
This total was set at 9 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Keep in mind, even though the Cardinals have been locked into a race for a post-season berth, they have not been getting involved in pitchers duels. In fact, with last night's 6-4 loss to the Brewers flying over the total, the over is now a perfect 7-0 in the Cards last 7 games. St Louis should stay hot at the plate versus Gio Gonzalez. Though he has some good numbers since coming to the Brewers, Gonzalez has struggled on the road this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start at St Louis. That tough outing is part of a stretch since mid-June that has seen Gonzalez allow 34 earned runs in 46 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 9 road starts. That equates to a 6.56 ERA for the Brewers southpaw in his last 9 outings away from home. Cardinals southpaw Austin Gomber is also likely to struggle in this one. He is nearing a career high in innings pitched (majors and minors combined) and appears to be wearing down. Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Each of those outings went over the total and we expect another one here! The Brewers have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and Milwaukee stays "locked in" at the plate tonight. Look for an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Tuesday
|
09-19-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
1-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
This total was set at 8.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Boston's David Price has found Yankee Stadium to be a "house of horrors" for him ever since he came to the Red Sox. The southpaw has gone 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in his 5 starts there. In his most recent outing there he allowed 5 homers on July 1st! He is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Yankees Luis Severino just hasn't been the same pitcher he was in the first half of the season when he was dominating the opposition. The last time he faced the Red Sox (August 3rd) he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings and Severino had more walks than strikeouts. In his last 11 starts, the Yankees right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA. The over is 10-3 in Severino's 13 starts since July 1st. Also, he has made 5 home starts during that stretch and the over went a perfect 5-0! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts at Yankee Stadium. After that pitchers' duel last night, don't be surprised when this one sees runs early and often which should lead to an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-26-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 10 |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET
The wind is blowing out again this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Yesterday's game saw 16 runs scored and we expect another high-scoring match-up this afternoon. Look for today's game to pick up right where yesterday's game left off in a big way. The starting pitching match-up here should lead to plenty of pop from both lineups. The over is 13-5-1 in Homer Bailey's 19 starts versus the Cubs in his career. Also, when he most recently faced them he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings back in May. The last time he faced them at Wrigley Field (August of last year) he also allowed 6 earned runs and that was in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Bailey enters this start having a dreadful season (1-11) and also he is trending the wrong direction. He is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 29 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings over his past 3 starts. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he is off of a strong start in terms of earned runs allowed but note that he gave up 10 hits in that 7-inning stint. Hendricks has now allowed 25 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The last two times he faced the Reds (both were this season) he allowed 4 runs each time. Though neither one of those starts went over the total, only 4 of his 12 starts against Cincinnati in his career have stayed under the total. The over is 17-8 the last 25 times the Cubs have hosted the Reds. The over is 14-7 in Cincy's Sunday games this season. The Cubs are getting their sticks going again at home as they've notched at least a dozen hits in 3 of their last 4 games at Wrigley Field. Another slugfest appears likely at Wrigley Field and we also like the additional value becoming available now as the early move on this total was from 10.5 down to a 10. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-23-18 |
Royals v. Rays OVER 7 |
Top |
3-4 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
The Royals Danny Duffy is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The southpaw is trying to come back from a shoulder problem. Duffy has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Now he faces a Rays team that has notched 14 hits in each of the past two games. Behind Duffy is a Royals bullpen that is 14-28 with a 5.18 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. While the Rays pitching situation is certainly much better, this is still a total (7 runs) in an American League game that should prove to be far too low. Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow has certainly enjoyed some success since coming to Tampa Bay from Pittsburgh. However, his ERA with the Rays is 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games and this has been a long-term trend for him. With the Pirates this season Glasnow worked out of the bullpen and he had a 5.18 ERA in night games this season. Last year with Pittsburgh the right-hander went 1-6 with a 8.67 ERA in his 12 night game appearances (10 starts). Opponents hit .249 against him under the lights. So with the Royals sticks also contributing very well toward the low total on Thursday's match-up this one should easily fly over the total as the Rays stay hot at the plate and pound Duffy and a weak KC bullpen! Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Thursday
|
08-19-18 |
Angels v. Rangers OVER 11 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-112 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
Even without Mike Trout, the Angels continue to love hitting at Texas. The Angels have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 6 games played at Texas this season. Also, not only has Los Angeles continued to hit well in the first 3 games of this 4-game set, the Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games (all without Trout) as they've reached double digits in hits in 5 of those 7 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Yovani Gallardo. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Gallardo has an overall 6.39 ERA this season. This comes as no surprise as he has been on a downhill slide for years. In 2016 and 2017 combined, Gallardo went 11-18 with a 5.57 ERA! He is very hittable and the way the Angels have thrived in this ballpark he is likely to struggle this afternoon. As for Angels starter Jaime Barria, he does have strong numbers against the Rangers this season but that's because one of the two starts was in Anaheim and the one that was in Texas was in mid-April when the weather was much different and, in fact, the wind was blowing in from center at 20 miles per hour in that game. Now, in the heat of the summer and with the Rangers one of the top slugging teams in the majors when on their home field, look for much different results this afternoon. Yes, this total is a big number but, of the 6 match-ups between these teams played in Arlington this season, every single game has totaled at least 9 runs. In fact the average total runs scored has been 12.3 per game. With this pitching match-up, the fact that this is an afternoon game, and the way both teams are swinging the bats (Rangers averaging 7.4 runs per game last 7 home games) we look for these teams to easily get to a dozen runs (and then some) this afternoon. Bet the OVER in Texas in afternoon evening action Sunday
|
08-16-18 |
Nationals v. Cardinals -120 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball as they have now won 8 straight games. Keep in mind yesterday's win over Washington was a shutout until the Nationals got a pair of runs in the top of the 9th. While St Louis has been red hot, the Nats are on the fade again as they've lost 4 straight games. Tanner Roark gets the start here and he is off of a win versus the Cubs but he threw 117 pitches in that start and did give up 9 hits in 7 and 2 / 3 innings. Though that outing followed back to back solid starts the other two wins came against the last place Reds and a Mets team that has had a very tough season. Now Roark faces a Cardinals team that is red hot and he is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his 3 career starts versus St Louis. Allowing two base-runners per inning gets you into trouble rather quickly at the MLB level and that 2.00 WHIP will haunt him here at Busch Stadium where he has averaged just 4 innings in his two career starts and he lost both of those outings. The Cardinals counter with Luke Weaver whom has a number of big edges. One is that, unlike Roark, Weaver is well-rested here. He missed his last start but it was due to something very minor (a cut on his index finger) and he comes in with a fresh arm for this outing. The other big edge is that the Nationals have never faced him! This is often the biggest of edges for a hurler and, in this case, Weaver has been in solid form ever since some ups and downs the first few months of this season. Since July 1st, Weaver has a 3.31 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Cardinals have won both of Weaver's home starts since the All Star break. Washington is 5-14 their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are 15-4 their last 19 games overall. Clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions and excellent line value here on the small home favorite. Bet St Louis on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
08-12-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
The Rockies Chad Bettis recently returned from the disabled list and he had an awful outing in his first start since coming back. That home outing versus the Pirates continued his long-term struggles at home this season. Bettis has not registered a victory in any of his 8 starts this season at Coors Field and the right-hander has compiled a 9.73 ERA in those outings. The Dodgers got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work when they faced him at Colorado earlier this season. As for Los Angeles starter Rich Hill, the southpaw has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 13 hits while striking out 18 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts versus the Rockies. Also, Hill enters this start in top current form as he has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and has surrendered only 12 hits in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings over those three outings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts and all 4 victories came by at least two runs. While LA is a bit pricey on the money line in this game we can get value by backing Los Angeles on the run line in this one as they are in a "pick'em" price range at -1.5 runs. Considering 7 of the 9 losses the Rockies have with Bettis on the mound this season have come by 2 or more runs, we see strong odds that this one turns into a road rout decided by a multiple run margin. The Dodgers are 19-8 the last 27 times they entered a game off of a loss and also 5-2 the last 7 times they've entered a game off of consecutive losses. LA is also 13-6 in Sunday games this season while the Rockies are 6-12 on Sundays this year Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Sunday
|
08-09-18 |
Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Rangers starter Ariel Jurado has been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall numbers but the fact is that he has only made 3 starts and only 1 was a bit shocking in terms of quality. Jurado recently held the defending world champion Astros to 1 run in 6 innings. However, in his other two starts he faced two bad teams (Orioles and White Sox) but allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in a total of only 9 and 2 / 3 frames. In other words, he was far from dominant and he hasn't recorded many strikeouts either. Additionally, Jurado had never pitched above the AA level of the minors before being called up by the Rangers! This is a guy that has been hit at a .270 level in the minors, never even pitched at AAA, struggled against the O's and Pale Hose, and now is pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight. We don't expect this to go well at all for Jurado. His Rangers teammates tend to hit well at home but they're a different team on the road and tonight they're facing a tough assignment too. The Yankees are starting J.A. Happ and the southpaw has a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts (1 being his Yankees debut) and the lefty also has a 1.89 ERA in going a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Happ registered 9 strikeouts in 7 innings when he faced them in April and Texas is known for striking out far too much especially when on the road. Away from home, the Rangers batting average (.230) and strikeouts per game (10) ranks them near dead last in the majors in each category. Texas is 25-43 against teams with a winning record this season while the Yankees are 34-21 against teams with a losing record this season. 49 of the Rangers 65 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 53 of the Yankees 71 wins this season have been by decided by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Great value here with the run line available at a very low price. Lay it! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday
|
08-05-18 |
Tigers v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
Since the All Star break the Tigers are dead last in the majors with a paltry .315 slugging percentage. Conversely, the A's are near the top of the majors with a .481 slugging percentage since the All Star break. Oakland is a red hot 32-10 their last 42 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 11-27 their last 38 games. Clearly this is a case of two teams going opposite directions right now and the A's current 5-game winning streak is the best in the majors. Also, Detroit is 2-17 this season in road games where their money line ranges from +175 to +250. Oakland is a fantastic 37-11 this season in games against teams with a losing record! The Tigers are starting Francisco Liriano and he has a 9.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. The A's are starting Trevor Cahill and the right-hander has loved pitched at home this season! Cahill has a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his home starts this season. While Cahill can be expected to dominate at home, note that Liriano went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road in 2016 and 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road in 2017. Couple this with his recent struggles and you can see why a home blowout is expected here. While the money line is big in this game, the run line allows you to lay a price of only about -120 and certainly we look for the A's win to come by a margin of 2 or more runs today. Bet Oakland on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-28-18 |
Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
This total opened up at a 9.5 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 9 across the board this morning. Great value with the over here. With yesterday's 8-3 win, Cleveland is 8-2 to the over their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They are likely to pound Detroit southpaw Blaine Hardy in this match-up as the Indians are the #1 team in the majors against left-handed pitching this season with a .273 batting average on the year. Cleveland is also the #1 offense in the majors in the month of July. The Indians are averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .284 this month! Though the Tigers certainly haven't been producing nearly as well as the Tribe has at the plate, Detroit had scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 prior games before being held to just 3 runs in last night's loss. The Tigers did reach double digits in hits last night for the 3rd time in their last 4 games. The Tigers big issue this evening will be that Hardy is on the mound. The Detroit southpaw has given up 10 runs (7 earned) in 7 innings over his last two starts and both of those starts were at home. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen that has allowed opponents to hit .262 this season and that ranks them as one of the worst pens in the majors while the Indians bullpen (5.14 ERA and 8-16 record) also ranks as one of the worst pens in the majors. The over is 3-0 in Hardy's last 3 home starts. The over is 6-3-2 (67%) in Mike Clevinger's night starts this season. Clevinger is off of a strong start at Texas but he had allowed 28 hits over 23 innings spanning his 4 prior starts and 10 runs (9 earned) spanning the 12 innings in his 2 prior starts. The Tigers are very familiar with him and are catching him at the right time to do some damage this evening at Comerica Park. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Saturday
|
07-25-18 |
A's v. Rangers OVER 11.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET
This total opened up at a 12 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and hot summer weather coupled with light winds allowing the ball to carry extremely well (as per usual) at Globe Life Park in Texas tonight. The first two games of this series have totaled 18 and 23 runs, respectively, so don't let the big number scare you here. This park plays out like a bandbox when the weather is like this and, in fact, both teams reached double digits in runs scored last night! The A's Edwin Jackson has a low ERA on the season but he has pitched in limited action and has walked 7 and struck out just 4 in his last two road starts. The Rangers Martin Perez has had an awful season and has pitched particularly poor at home. The southpaw has a 10.05 ERA in his home starts and all 3 went over the total. The Texas bullpen is also struggling as the Rangers have now allowed 9 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The A's have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball and have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 14 games and Oakland scored at least 6 runs in 8 of those 9 strong games at the plate. Only 19 of the A's 54 road games this season have stayed under the total. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over their last 6 games. We look for these over trends to continue in a BIG way this evening! Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Wednesday
|
07-21-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a road rout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he truly had just one "mistake pitch" in his most recent start and that resulted in a 3-run homer. However, the Dodgers still hung on for the 5-3 win in that game and, overall, it was another quality start for Kershaw. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in his last 7 starts. LA is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and all 5 of those games were decided by 2 or more runs. Instead of laying a sizable price here on the money line, we're grabbing the run line and laying the 1.5 runs with some shops having this available at no juice as of early game-day morning. The Brewers have struggled against Kershaw in recent seasons as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Milwaukee while registering 33 strikeouts in 23 and 1 / 3 innings! The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound for this one. Although the right-hander has a low ERA in recent starts, he has been fortunate as he has allowed 14 hits (including 2 homers) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. On the season Anderson has a 4.83 ERA in starts at Miller Park. Also, the Dodgers have hit him very hard in recent meetings. Anderson has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in the 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Los Angeles. His WHIP in those starts is 2.38 and when a pitcher is giving up nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning it does not take long to get into big trouble! LA has won 11 of their last 15 games and 40 of the Dodgers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 7 straight games! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday.
|
07-15-18 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a home blowout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he has a 1.44 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season and the southpaw went 12-3 with a 1.95 ERA in his day game starts the past 3 seasons combined! Not only does he love pitching in afternoon action, Kershaw has thrived at home as he went 28-6 with a 1.81 ERA in starts at Dodger Stadium the past 3 seasons and he has a strong 2.85 ERA in limited action at home this season. The Angels have struggled against him in recent seasons and have not seen him yet this season which is a big edge for the Dodgers here considering their lineup just faced the Angels Deck McGuire in his most recent start on the 7th of this month. Note that Kershaw has a 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Angels. As for McGuire, though he had a successful 3-inning stint versus the Dodgers a week ago, he is likely to struggle against them here as they get a quick 2nd look at him plus now McGuire is away from home. McGuire has pitched in 6 road games in his career (3 of those were starts) and he has a 6.64 ERA away from home in his career! Opponents are hitting .302 against him in road games this season. The Angels got the win over the Dodgers yesterday but had previously lost 14 of their last 18 road games! Also, the Angels are just 9-17 this season against left-handed starters and also are only 14-25 this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 10-5 this season in Sunday games and were 19-9 their last 28 home games prior to getting upset yesterday. Thanks to a huge pitching edge with Kershaw over McGuire, the Dodgers bounce right back in a big way today on Sunday! 38 of the Dodgers 52 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 37 of the Angels 47 losses this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-11-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 |
Top |
2-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET
This total opened up at a 12 but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and a wind shift that is taking place at Coors Field tonight very soon after first pitch in this game! The wind is likely to be out of the east at first pitch but is shifting from east to southeast very quickly and this means it will be blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Rockies right-hander German Marquez is off of back to back solid starts but those were on the road. Pitching at home has been a nightmare for him this season as Marquez is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and he allows an average of 2 baserunners per inning when on his home mound. It is no wonder that he is in trouble early and often there. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has hammered for 21 hits in 12 and 2 / 3 innings over his last three starts versus Arizona. Included in those hits were 3 homers when he hosted the Dbacks just last month! More of the same expected here and the Rockies will also be crushing the ball tonight. Colorado will take advantage of Shelby Miller whom just hasn't been the same in his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his 3 starts since his return. Also, his history versus the Rockies is not a good sign for him in terms of what to expect tonight. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 6.30 ERA versus Colorado. Most recently he has allowed 13 earned runs on 20 hits in just 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. This match-up truly has "slug-fest" written all "over" it and the over is 18-7 in Diamondbacks road games this season where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. We look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Arizona's Wednesday games this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday.
|
07-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET
The Red Sox have already scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series. Overall they've scored 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 games. The over is 5-2 in Boston's last 7 games and now they get to take on a rookie right-hander, Heath Fillmyer, making his first ever MLB start. The 24-year old has good numbers so far with the Royals but he has made just 3 relief appearances out of the bullpen. There is a big difference between coming out of the bullpen and making your first ever MLB start against one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox sticks are red hot right now and note that Fillmyer's AAA stats this season are not impressive at all. In the minors this season Fillmyer made 13 starts and compiled a 5.75 ERA as opponents hit .303 against him! This is a tough assigment for the rookie and, after a likely early Fillmyer exit in this one, the American League's worst bullpen (5.28 ERA) will get called upon to get hammered. Just as they have been crushed in each of the first two games, the Kansas City bullpen gives it up again Sunday afternoon. While Boston's lineup should definitely stay red hot here, look for the Royals lineup to join the party too! KC's hitters will be taking on Rick Porcello. Though the veteran right-hander has solid numbers this season, he has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Also, in Porcello's last 3 starts versus the Royals (including 2 here at Kauffman Stadium), he has compiled a 7.41 ERA and allowed 5 homers in 17 innings. He particularly struggled at Kansas City with 10 earned runs allowed in 10 innings! The over is 4-1 in Kansas City's last 5 games. Also, the Royals are a long-term 56-33 to the over (including 8-1 in recent seasons) when they are a home dog of +175 or more. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-05-18 |
Braves +100 v. Brewers |
Top |
2-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
The Braves have lost back to back road games but they were in the Bronx facing the Yankees. Prior to these back to back losses Atlanta was on a fantastic 22-11 (67%) run their last 33 road games. It is no "accident" that they're leading the National League East division. They hold a big edge in this match-up with Milwaukee because Braves southpaw Max Fried is likely to handcuff the Brewers. Milwaukee is hitting a paltry .222 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 29th out of 30 in the majors! Fried enters this start having allowed just 1 earned run on 8 hits while striking out 17 in his two starts spanning 11 and 2 / 3 innings this season. The Brewers are a fantastic 43-26 against right-handed starters this season BUT they have a losing record versus southpaws. The fact that Milwaukee hasn't faced many left-handed starters recently also will be a detriment to the lineup here as they'll be trying to get locked in on a lefty that has been piling up strikeouts. As for the Brewers starting pitcher tonight it will be Jhoulys Chacin getting the call. Milwaukee has lost each of his last 3 starts overall. Chacin has given up 5 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts at Miller Park. Overall at home in his last 3 starts the right-hander has compiled an ugly 7.02 ERA. He is facing a Braves team that is the #1 hitting team on the road in the National League. Atlanta's .266 batting average and .452 slugging percentage ranks them at the very TOP in both categories! While the Brewers are not familiar with Fried, the Braves faced Chacin last season in two starts. Although the 4.50 ERA is not particularly poor it is certainly not great and Chacin's 1.67 WHIP in those two outings is particularly concerning. The way the Braves have been hitting on the road this season (much better than last year when he faced them) this is a tough match-up for Chacin. Atlanta is 24-11 this season when off of a loss and Atlanta is also a perfect 7-0 this season in Thursday games. Bet Atlanta on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Thursday.
|
06-30-18 |
Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game was a low-scoring battle as the Blue Jays held on for the 3-2 win. After that pitchers duel many will be looking for a similar result Saturday but the key to the outcome in this one is a pitching match-up that is conducive to big runs! Toronto is 5-1-1 to the over in Sam Gaviglio's 7 starts this season. The Jays right-hander has a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has averaged only 4 innings per start in these outings. The Tigers counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Matt Boyd gets the call for Detroit here. The southpaw has been roughed up to the tune of 11 earned runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Boyd also will feel the pressure of going against his former team. He did face the Blue Jays earlier this season and allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings but that start was at Comerica Park. When he has actually pitched in Toronto, check out these numbers in his career starts at the Rogers Centre. As a member of the Jays in 2015 he went 0-2 with a 14.85 ERA in his two starts there. Since leaving Toronto and going to Detroit, as a member of the Tigers Boyd has allowed 6 earned runs in 11 innings at Rogers Centre. He has walked 8 in those 11 innings and, just as when he was also a member of the Blue Jays, he just does not appear comfortable on the mound in Toronto. You can see why we are predicting both starters to struggle badly here! Also supporting this play: the Jays are 20-11 to the over in day games this season. Also, as home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season, the Blue Jays are 5-2 to the over. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early afternoon action Saturday.
|
06-28-18 |
Nationals v. Phillies -122 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
This is a very fair price to have Aaron Nola on the mound and to fade a Nationals team off of back to back shutout losses as their struggles at the plate continue. The Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in Nola's home starts this season and he has a 6-0 mark with a 1.86 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia's ace right-hander also has a solid 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats. Washington will counter tonight with a struggling Tanner Roark. The Nationals right-hander is winless with an 8.16 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. That included his most recent start versus the Phillies and that continued another trend for Roark. That trend is that he struggles badly versus Philadelphia. Roark is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Phillies. In addition to the pitching edge and home field edge here, Philadelphia has also been the hotter team at the plate. The Nationals have averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in their last 11 games! The Phillies have averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Phils are a stellar 10-4 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Washington has the "benefit" of an off-day yesterday but they have a losing record in that situation this season and that includes 3 straight losses when they are playing a game after an off day! The Nationals enter this series having lost 11 of their last 15 games. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 16 games and we look for them to improve to 8-0 this season in Nola's home starts! Nola and the Phillies roll in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.
|
06-24-18 |
Blue Jays v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET
Sam Gaviglio has struggled on the road since coming up to the majors. In his 8 road starts at the MLB level he has allowed 14 homers! Last year with the Mariners Gaviglio compiled a 5.58 ERA on the road. This season with the Blue Jays, Gaviglio has compiled a 7.05 ERA on the road. All 3 of his road starts this season have gone over the total and we fully expect another one here. The Blue Jays right-hander enters this start in poor current form as he has given up 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in the 7 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Angels have plenty of slugging power and the ball carries better in day games in Anaheim and the weather forecast looks favorable for the hitters in this one. The Blue Jays are 18-11 to the over in day games this season and the over is 7-3 in Toronto's Sunday games this year. Although Los Angeles has recorded back to back unders they previously had gone 10 straight games with an under! The fact that a converted reliever, Felix Pena, is making just his 2nd career start is another key factor with this play. Pena has a 5.04 ERA at the MLB level in his 39 career appearances and only 1 of those was a start. That was against the Cardinals earlier this week and Pena hit a batter and walked 3 in his 4 innings of work. He has been hit at a .313 clip this this season by left-handed bats and he'll see a good number of those in facing the Blue Jays this afternoon. Also, Pena is unlikely to work deep into this game (only went 4 innings in his first start) and the Angels bullpen (and Jays bullpen for that matter) both rank in the bottom third of the majors in terms of batting average against. Last night's big 3-run homer for Toronto with two outs in the top of the 9th was a big momentum-building hit for the Blue Jays heading into Sunday's series finale. The Jays stay hot at the plate here but the Angels also should enjoy a huge day as Gaviglio's long-term road struggles continue. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
06-20-18 |
Red Sox -137 v. Twins |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-137 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET
This is a very fair price to have David Price on the mound and the Red Sox looking to bounce back off of a loss yesterday. Boston lost 6-2 yesterday but the Twins scored those 6 runs on just 5 hits. As for the Red Sox, they were done in by leaving 11 men on base! That sets this one up perfectly as a bounce back spot for Boston. The Red Sox are 7-0 in the last 7 starts that Price has made. The Boston southpaw has a 2.64 ERA during this 7-0 run in his starts. Also, Price is 10-3 in the 16 starts he has made against Minnesota in his career. The Twins Lance Lynn is 0-2 in the 4 starts he has made against Boston in his career. The Red Sox are 6-2 in Price's 8 road starts this season. Minnesota is just 2-4 in the 6 homes starts Lynn has made this season. Though the Twins beat a lefty yesterday they are facing a very tough lefty on Wednesday and Minny had previously lost 6 of their last 7 games when facing a left-handed starter! The Red Sox are 10-2 this season when they are on the road and the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, while the Twins are 2-6 their last 8 versus left-handed starters (that includes yesterday's win), Boston is a fantastic 41-16 versus right-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are also 12-5 their last 17 when off of a loss. One final crucial note here is that Minnesota has a .362 slugging percentage versus left-hand pitching this season and that ranks them dead last in the American League. Price and the Sox roll in this one! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Wednesday.
|
06-17-18 |
Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
With yesterday's game going over the total, the Angels have not an under in any of their last 6 games as Los Angeles has gone 5-0-1 to the over. Is a perfect 5-0 run to the over for the A's after the 6-4 win Saturday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be near 70 degrees in Oakland and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oakland Coliseum. The Angels Andrew Heaney had a good start versus the A's last season but that was at home. This start is on the road and Heaney has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two road starts. The LA southpaw is winless on the season in his starts away from home and has produced a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. The Athletics will have Daniel Mengden on the mound and that should lead to plenty of runs for the road team in this one. The A's right-hander is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts versus the Angels and that includes a start earlier this season. Like Heaney, Mengden enters this start in poor current form as he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last 5 innings in either start! Mengden allowed 6 homers in those two starts and Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 homers! With the trending of these two lineups as well as these two starting pitchers, we're happy to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Sunday.
|
06-12-18 |
Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rays have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Jays have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games overall and in 4 of their last 5 road games. What is the significance in this? Getting each team to 4 runs in this game means we have a guaranteed winner as the game has to finish with a least 9 runs. This total opened up at an 8 and we would be surprised to see it climb any higher than an 8.5 as the day goes on. Either way, this situation demands our highest rating. Jaime Garcia is coming off of a strong start for the Blue Jays but that is just the 2nd quality start he has had in his past 10 starts and that outing was at home. On the road this season Garcia has gone 1-3 with an ugly 8.20 ERA. Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games and the Rays have averaged 9.2 hits per game their last 5 games. Toronto is 19-9-3 to the over this season. The Blue Jays, although they were held to 4 runs last night, have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 5 games. Ryne Stanek gets the start for the Rays which means this will be a bullpen day for the Rays because he has averaged only 1 inning per outing this season. In fact, in his 34 MLB appearances (3 starts) he has never pitching more than 2 innings in an outing. Tampa Bay's "bullpen strategy" started off going quite well but the effectiveness has faded in recent weeks and they're likely going to need 7 innings of bullpen in this game. Prior to yesterday's win, the Rays had lost 9 of their 10 prior games. Tampa Bay has allowed nearly 5 runs per game their last 11 games and the Blue Jays have seen plenty of the Rays relievers this season as the TB starters have averaged only 5 innings per start in the 4 games between these clubs this season. That repetition pays off here and the Toronto over improves to 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.
|
06-06-18 |
Mariners +1.5 v. Astros |
Top |
5-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET
With yesterday's win the Mariners have now won 5 straight games and 14 of their last 17. While Seattle has been red hot, Houston has actually been ice cold. The Astros have lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10. Of course as the defending champs Houston gets plenty of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets. That is why the Astros are nearly a -200 favorite on the money line in this one. Though we expect the Mariners to get the upset win here as a big dog, we feel the best value is with the run line (at a nearly pick'em price) as that puts Seattle money in your pocket tonight even if they lose a pitchers duel. The Mariners are starting Wade LeBlanc and this is his 2nd stint with Seattle as he was also with them in 2016. He has enjoyed great success as a Mariner as Seattle has gone 12-2 in his 14 starts! This season LeBlanc has a 1.72 ERA in his 6 starts including a 0.82 ERA in his road starts on the year. The Astros are starting Lance McCullers and he has some solid numbers on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, this will be the 2nd time this season that the Mariners will be facing him and that is a major key here. The other two times this season that McCullers has made a 2nd start versus a team he has struggled badly. The combined numbers are 9 earned runs on 11 hits and 6 walks in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings. So that is 17 baserunners in about 9 innings of work while compiling an 8.68 ERA. With the way the Mariners are rolling (and the Astros certainly are not) there is fantastic line value here given the pitching match-up. Bet Seattle on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday.
|
06-02-18 |
Reds v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
102 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET
Neither one of these lineups is known for being an offensive juggernaut but sharp money has moved this total from an 8 to an 8.5 this morning. The fact is that there are a number of key factors favoring the over. The Reds Matt Harvey is off of a poor start at Colorado and that is the last thing he needed. His confidence has been shaky already as it is because he had a poor finish to his time in New York with the Mets and now, since coming to the Reds, he has allowed 7 earned runs on 16 hits (including 3 homers) in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Padres did struggle in yesterday's 7-2 loss but they entered the game having won 3 straight games and averaging 6.7 runs per game during this 3-0 run in home games. The over is 4-1 in 5 games on this San Diego homestand and another one looks likely here. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Padres and the Reds last two games against southpaw starters saw Cincinnati amass 13 runs on 23 hits. Lauer enters this start off of another rough home outing versus Miami. He now has a 9.29 ERA in home games this season and the left-hander has a 7.67 ERA overall on the year. The over is a long-term 75-48 when a Reds game has a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 8-2 this season when Cincinnati is on the road in game with a money line between -125 and +125. San Diego is a long-term 31-19 to the over in June games (nice weather in San Diego today) and the Padres are 6-2 to the over this season in their Saturday games. We're taking advantage of the low total that was set in this game as both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle in this one. Bet the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY in evening action Saturday.
|
05-26-18 |
Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
It is amazing what one game can do for the confidence of lineup and Arizona, a solid team overall, will have their swagger back today. After enduring a stretch of recent struggles, the Diamondbacks got back on track with a huge night at the plate yesterday. Arizona won 7-1 yesterday and now, in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out, look for another over today. The A's Daniel Mengden is off of a strong start in the books and so too is Clay Buchholz. However the Diamondbacks right-hander was not overly impressive at AAA Reno before being called up to face the Mets. Buchholz was fortunate in that many of his outs were through the air including well-hit balls but he escaped damage. Mengden had a similar outing in his most recent start. Many outs through the air and he entered that start having allowed a .265 batting average to hitters on the season. In other words, Mengden's results (especially including the recent lack of strikeouts) have been quite fortunate. Look for the Diamondbacks to be on the attack early and often in this one after yesterday's explosion at the plate. As for the A's, they'll bounce back at the plate after scoring just 1 run yesterday. Buchholz's "stuff" is simply not that sharp and the Oakland lineup will be much tougher against him than the struggling Mets lineup was. The Athletics have a .428 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching this season and that has them tied for 3rd in the majors! Mengden has made 10 starts this season and only 3 have resulted in an under. The very first totals posted on this game were 9s and it quickly dropped to 8s across the board. It has now settled in at 8.5 in all books but the odds makers had it right in the first place and we see at least 9 runs in this one and, more likely, double digits being scored! Look for the over to move to 16-9 in Arizona's road games this season and 6-2 in A's Saturday games on the year! Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Saturday.
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05-23-18 |
Angels -114 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Angels money line (-) over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7 PM ET
The Angels lost 5-3 on the scoreboard yesterday but they won 3-1 in terms of earned runs. A very unusual play completely changed the complexion of yesterday's game. The Blue Jays got a 5-run first inning yesterday but 4 of the runs were unearned and it was completely improbable that it happened. Angels outfielder Chris Young made an error on a line drive in the first inning and that snapped the longest error-less streak in the majors as he had gone 236 games without an error! Off of a "fluke win" yesterday for Toronto this game is set up as the perfect spot to fade them. The Angels are still 14-5 on the road this season and they are a perfect 4-0 this season when on the road off of a loss in their most recent road game. In other words, Los Angeles has not lost consecutive road games yet this season and we don't expect that to change here. The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez struggled last season with blister issues and, as a result, he still has not been able to get his command back this season. He has walked 11 in less than 13 innings of work in his last 3 starts. Sanchez has a 2.05 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Angels Tyler Skaggs is a perfect 3-0 in his 4 road starts this season and the southpaw has a 1.14 ERA away from home on the year. The Blue Jays (.228 batting average) are one of the worst hitting teams in the American League against left-handed pitching. We wouldn't be surprised to see the line climb on the Angels here but they are a perfect 8-0 this season in road games with a money line range between -125 and -175 so don't be afraid to "lay it" here! Dating all the way back to April 19th - a span of 5 weeks - the Blue Jays have only 1 winning streak (3 games). As you can see, back to back wins have been virtually non-existent for Toronto and, coming off of a win yesterday, the Jays again fall flat here. Fantastic small fave money line value available in this one. Bet the Los Angeles Angels on the money line in early evening action Wednesday.
|
05-17-18 |
Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET
Vincent Velasquez is off of a fantastic start for Philadelphia in his most recent outing as he bounced back from early inning struggles and ended up registering 12 strikeouts in the game. However, throughout his tenure with the Phillies Velasquez has been known for his inconsistency as he often follows up a strong start with a poor one. This is particularly true when he is off of a huge strikeout game. Keep in mind, a big game with K's also means a lot of pitches thrown and, sure enough, Velasquez threw more than 100 pitches in what became the 5th start of his MLB career in which he struck out 10 or more batters. That is noteworthy because he has never produced a quality start in his career when off of a game where he registered double digits in strikeouts. The numbers for Velasquez in those 4 starts are as follows: 19 and 1 / 3 innings, 18 runs, 15 earned runs, 26 hits, 8 homers! That is an average of 2 homers per start even though his average start was less than 5 innings. Also, the hard-throwing righty has compiled a 6.98 ERA in those 4 starts. We expect similar results today but we do expect Velasquez to get plenty of run support as his Phillies teammates take advantage of facing Luke Weaver. The Cardinals right-hander is off of a solid start in his most recent outing but he faced the weak Padres lineup. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has been on a strong surge and Weaver, prior to shutting down San Diego over 5 innings, had compiled a 9.00 ERA in his 4 prior starts. He allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 starts. Now Weaver faces a Philly team that has won 6 of their last 7 and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in those 6 wins. That has this one set to be a back and forth slugfest with temperatures in the mid-80s for this one as an added bonus. Bet the OVER in St Louis for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.
|
05-15-18 |
Indians v. Tigers OVER 9.5 |
Top |
8-9 |
Win
|
105 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET
The Indians are facing southpaw Francisco Liriano in this one. The #1 offense in the American League versus left-handed pitching so far this season is Cleveland with a .445 slugging percentage! The last two times Liriano has faced the Tribe he has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings. Also, in those two starts he walked 6 while striking out just 4. The Indians are 9-3-1 to the over this month. Even with yesterday's 6-3 loss, Cleveland is scoring an average of 7 runs per game this month. The Tigers are 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games and have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. In the month of May Detroit has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors with a .285 batting average and Cleveland is right behind them with a .282 mark. On Tuesday, the Tigers will take advantage of facing a struggling Josh Tomlin. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 homers in his last 3 starts! Allowing an average of 3 homers per start certainly gets a pitcher into trouble in very little time. Not only are both starting pitchers likely to struggle here but the bullpen numbers offer further support for the expectation of a slugfest here. The Tigers pen is 6-12 with a 4.45 ERA and has blown 10 of 19 save opportunities! The Indians pen is 3-10 with a 5.45 ERA. We expect runs early, often, and throughout this game and you can see why! Bet the OVER in Detroit for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.
|
05-11-18 |
Twins v. Angels OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 10 PM ET
This is a great value situation as odds makers opened up this total at an 8.5 but it has dropped to a 7.5 as of mid-day Friday. This is NOT a National League game. This is NOT a game involving two stellar starting pitchers. While the Angels Tyler Skaggs has pitched better recently, he still is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in his home starts this season. Taking a look at the Twins Lance Lynn, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings against the White Sox in his most recent start but Chicago did notch 8 hits against him. Lynn has a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the season as both hits and walks (too many) have been an issue for the Minnesota right-hander. As for the two bullpens in this match-up, the Angels numbers rank well in some aspects but the 20 homers the relievers have allowed ranks as the 3rd worst in the majors. Of course that is also why the Angels bullpen ranks in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage allowed. Which bullpen is the worst for homers allowed? Right on cue it is the Twins as they've allowed 23 and Minnesota's relievers combined 5.27 ERA also ranks as one of the worst marks in the majors. The over is 14-5-1 in Minnesota's last 20 games. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Twins are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 and the over is 7-2 this season when the Angels are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the OVER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY in late night action Friday.
|
04-28-18 |
Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET
The Rangers Bartolo Colon certainly had been pitching much better than expected early this season. There are signs the wheels are about to come off of his surprising run though. In his most recent start, the 44 year old allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 6 innings of work and he struck out only 2. Now he is facing a Blue Jays team that has hit him quite well recently including 3 homers in his last two starts against them. Toronto has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in their last 6 home games. They lost yesterday's game 6-4 but did have 10 hits. They've been held below 4 runs only once in their last 6 home games. The Rangers should also enjoy success at the plate today. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 6 games and they also reached double digits in hits yesterday. The Rangers already faced Jaime Garcia earlier this month. Another look at Garcia within the same month should yield even better results. That start earlier in April versus Texas is part of a stretch in which the Blue Jays southpaw has allowed 4 homers while compiling a 5.75 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in Rangers games versus left-handed starters this season. Also, Texas is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a win and 5-2 to the over in day games this season. The Rangers Saturday games are 3-1 to the over this season. Look for the over to go to 6-3 in Toronto's day games this season. The over is 6-2 the last 8 when the Blue Jays are off of a loss. More of the same expected in this afternoon match-up featuring two starting pitchers very likely to struggle! Bet the OVER in Toronto in afternoon action Saturday.
|
11-01-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers (-1.5 runs) on the run line over Houston, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
We feel the mound advantage is absolutely with LA tonight. Not only did righty Yu Darvish come into the World Series having allowed only 5 earned runs TOTAL in his last 5 starts, the Dodgers also have Clayton Kershaw in the bullpen for this one and Houston’s line up struggles vs southpaws. As impressive as their overall record is, the Astros have a LOSING RECORD vs left handed starters at 26 wins and 28 losses on the year after losing again last night. Now this will officially go in the books as a righty start as it is Yu Darvish on the mound but just keep in mind that the southpaw Kershaw is there if needed. We do expect a much better effort from Darvish after he struggled in the start at Houston. Also, LA had won 4 of Darvish’s last 5 starts before his poor outing at Houston. Each of his last 6 starts have resulted in games decided by 2 runs or more and we like the value of having the Dodgers at significant plus money on the run line in this one! We'll lay the 1.5 runs as the Astros are starting Lance McCullers and Houston had lost 8 of his last 9 starts before they won with him over Darvish earlier in this series. Each of his last 12 starts have resulted in games decided by 2 runs or more. We expect the Dodgers to have some opportunities here (in their second look at him in this series) and we also expect them to take advantage of them. As we've noted previously, Houston’s weakest part of their team this year is their bullpen so LA should have an advantage there again (if needed) in Game 7. In this situation (at home and able to get solid plus money on the run line) there is again value with LA! Look for the Dodgers WIN BIG Wednesday night! Lay the 1.5 runs!
|
10-31-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -114 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers (-) on the money line over Houston, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET
The Astros are off of a very emotional win in their Game 5 extra innings thrilling victory at home Sunday. Of course with that Game 5 result, this becomes a must win for the Dodgers. We feel the mound advantage is absolutely with LA tonight. Not only is lefty Rich Hill solid (10 earned runs, 23 hits, 59 strikeouts in his last 42 innings) but Houston’s line up struggles vs southpaws. As impressive as their overall record is, the Astros have a LOSING RECORD vs left handed starters at 26 wins and 27 losses on the year. Also, LA has won 5 of Hill’s last 6 starts. Justin Verlander is on the hill for Houston. The Astros did get the win in his first start of the series but Verlander allowed 3 earned runs. Also, the righty was 0-3 in World Series starts prior to his first World Series start with Houston. With that said, we expect the Dodgers to have some opportunities here (in their second look at him in this series) and we also expect them to take advantage of them. Additionally, Verlander has gone past 6 innings in only 1 of his last 5 road starts and Houston’s weakest part of their team this year is their bullpen so LA should have an advantage there. In this situation (at home and laying a small price) there is again value with LA! Look for the Dodgers to force a Game 7 with a big win Tuesday night!
|
10-28-17 |
Dodgers +127 v. Astros |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
127 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers +125 over Houston, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Astros came with huge emotion in their World Series home opener last night and jump on LA starter Darvish who didn’t even make it through the 2nd inning. Darvish had done very well historically vs the Astros and in Houston but just didn’t have it last night. Now with their 5-3 loss in Friday, this becomes a must win for the Dodgers. We feel the mound advantage is absolute with LA tonight. Not only is lefty Alex Wood solid (16-4 with 2.81 ERA) but Houston’s line up struggles vs southpaws. As impressive as their overall record is, the Astros have a LOSING RECORD vs left handed starters at 25 wins and 26 losses. LA has won 18 of Wood’s last 23 starts. Morton is on the hill for Houston. He has been just OK in the playoffs allowing 9 earned runs in his 3 starts spanning 13 innings. On the season Morton allowed 175 base runners in 146 innings so we expect the Dodgers to have some opportunities here and we also expect them to take advantage of them. Morton also has struggled to get deep into starts as he hasn’t gotten out of the 5th in 7 of his last 9. Houston’s weakest part of their team this year is their bullpen so LA should have an advantage there. In this situation getting +125 is again value with LA
|
10-06-17 |
Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7 |
Top |
8-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees, Friday at 5:05 PM ET
The Indians Corey Kluber went 10-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his home starts this season. The under cashed 11 of 15 times in Kluber's home starts. Overall, 9 of Kluber's last 12 starts have resulted in an under. The right-hander also has dominated the Yankees with just 3 earned runs allowed in 17 innings versus the Yanks this season. In his last 3 starts versus New York, Kluber has given up only 11 hits in 25 innings while recording 26 strikeouts. The Yankees CC Sabathia faces the team that drafted him (many years ago) and he does have an edge over the Indians here as this is his first start versus Cleveland in over a year. The Yankees left-hander has been throwing very well (2.55 ERA in his last 3 starts) and he went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in his road starts this season. The under cashed 10 of 14 times in Sabathia's road starts. Overall, CC enters this start with the Yankees having recorded 17 unders in his last 21 starts. The Yanks got shutout yesterday and have averaged just 3 runs (and 6.4 hits) per game in their last 5 games. The Indians have totaled just 13 hits in their last 3 games. A pitchers duel should prove to be absolutely the right "call" in this one! Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in very early evening action Friday.
|
09-25-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Red Sox are on a 14-3 run and they should remain red hot here. The push isn't over for Boston yet as they're still looking to lock down the AL East. Once they do that you may see a let down from the Red Sox but for now Boston certainly remains in "play on" mode. Couple that with the fact that the Red Sox have a huge pitching edge here and you have the right set up for a blowout. While yesterday's Boston win came by just a single run, 10 of their 12 prior victories came by margin of at least 2 runs. The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 18 road games and lefty Brett Anderson got crushed by the Royals in his most recent start. The last 2 seasons Anderson has pitched in 15 games (14 starts) at the MLB level and he has compiled an 8.10 ERA while getting rocked for 89 hits in 56 and 2 / 3 innings. As you can see from those numbers, he is highly unlikely to enjoy success at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz toeing the rubber in this one. The Boston southpaw is 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA in his last 22 starts! Pomeranz is 9-2 on the season in his home starts. We see every reason to expect more home domination tonight! By grabbing the Red Sox on the run line we get a price range in a pick 'em instead of laying 2 to 1 odds on the money line. In other words, big value here! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the run line in early evening action Monday.
|
09-22-17 |
Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Even though the wind will be blowing in for this one (north wind), the temperatures will still be mild and the hitters still hold a big edge in this one based on the pitching match-up. The Nationals will have Edwin Jackson toeing the rubber in this one and he is 0-3 with a 12.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. Those 3 outings have totaled only 11 and 1 / 3 innings for Jackson but he has allowed 7 homers in those games! The Mets, despite missing some starters in their lineup, have continued to hit the ball quite well and the over is 7-3 in New York's last 10 games as they've averaged 9.3 hits per game over this period. With the Nationals having locked up the NL East and very nearly having locked up the #2 seed for the NL post-season, they're certainly not feeling any pressure at the plate right now and that's bad news for the Mets Robert Gsellman. The New York right-hander has found the Nationals lineup to be a nightmare for him as Gsellman has given up 13 runs - 9 earned - on 20 hits in the 9 innings over his two starts versus Washington this season. He lost both starts and, as you would anticipate with numbers like that, both games did go over the total. The over is 66-31 in Mets night games this season and the New York bullpen ERA of 4.84 ranks dead last in the National League. The Washington bullpen has a 5.05 ERA on the road this season as they've struggled away from home this year. Bet the OVER in New York in early evening action Friday.
|
09-19-17 |
A's v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
9-8 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Tigers Chad Bell has a 9.75 ERA in his 3 starts this month. The left-hander just moved into the rotation this month after working long relief previously. It has not gone well for Bell and he has particularly been crushed in his 2 home starts as he has compiled a 13.51 ERA at Comerica Park. The A's will have Daniel Gossett toeing the rubber for this one. The right-hander has a lower ERA since the All-Star break but really hasn't pitched much better. He has just had some fortunate bounces because opponents have hit .291 against him since the break and they were hitting .295 against him before the break! In his last 4 road starts Gossett has given up 29 hits in 20 and 2 / 3 innings! In his last 2 road starts, he has walked 6 batters in just 9 innings. Gossett's struggles are likely to continue here as well as for Detroit's starter. Bell is facing an Oakland team that has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in their last 14 games! Detroit has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in their last 8 home games and the over is 7-1 in those 8 games! We expect another slug-fest here. Oakland's Tuesday games are 15-6 to the over this season. The Tigers are 25-12 to the over in home games where their money line price is in a range of -125 to +125 this season. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-12-17 |
Mets v. Cubs -1.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) over New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Chicago Cubs are poised to blast the Mets here. New York's season is over and they're very banged up. Surprisingly they have put up some decent runs recently but don't be fooled. The Mets took advantage of taking on two of the "other worst" teams in baseball as they faced the Reds and Phillies recently. The fact is that the Mets have been forced to go with makeshift lineups recently due to injuries and now they face a hungry Cubs team that is fighting for the NL Central division title. The Mets are 13-40 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, New York is 0-8 as a money line road dog of +175 to +250 this season. We, of course, are not going to lay a huge money line price here but we're certainly happy to lay the 1.5 runs on the Cubs and only have to risk "juice" of -120. The Mets last 7 losses have all come by 2 runs or more and, in fact, the average margin of defeat was 5.4 runs per loss! The Cubs are 49-33 against teams with a losing record this season, 12-5 when playing after a day off, and 26-13 as a home favorite of -175 or more. 10 of the last 11 Cubs wins have come by 2 runs or more. Chicago has struggled recently but they'll take advantage of facing an injury-ravaged Mets lineup and also a New York starting pitcher, Robert Gsellman, who has an 8.53 in his 7 road starts this season. The Cubs Jose Quintana has had only one tough start in his last 6 starts. In the other 5 outings, Quintana has compiled a 2.79 ERA. The Cubs have won 4 of his last 5 starts and two of those wins came by a double digit margin! We are forecasting another blowout home win here! Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line in evening action Tuesday.
|
09-06-17 |
Nationals -126 v. Marlins |
Top |
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Nationals Money Line (-) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Nationals Gio Gonzalez is from the Miami area and went to high school there. He has enjoyed success against his hometown team throughout his career. The Nats southpaw is 9-3 with a fantastic 1.94 ERA in his 15 starts versus Miami. Gonzalez is off of a rare sub-par start and we expect him to bounce right back here. Prior to allowing 8 hits in 6 innings at Milwaukee last week, Gonzalez had allowed a total of only 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts! This fantastic 6-game stretch for Gonzalez saw him compile a 1.09 ERA. The southpaw now gets the luxury of facing a Marlins team that has been struggling badly at the plate and has lost 8 of its last 9 games. Miami will have rookie Dillon Peters toeing the rubber in this one. Certainly he was impressive in his MLB debut but that was against the league-worst Phllies. Now Peters will be facing one of the top teams in the majors. Oftentimes rookies do struggle in their 2nd start and the Nationals certainly will be prepared after full analysis of Peters' start against Philadelphia. The young lefty has jumped all the way from AA ball in the minors this season all the way up to the majors. That is a big jump for a young hurler as he has never even pitched at the AAA level in the minors. As impressive as Peters first start was, he faces a much tougher test here and with another exceptional start from Gonzalez in his hometown, it shouldn't take much run support for the Nationals to take this one! The Nats are 59-27 in night games this season. The Marlins are 20-31 against teams with a winning record this season. The Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 games and we'll gladly grab the "hot versus not" in this match-up at a great price as the Marlins lose for the 9th time in 10 games. Bet Washington on the money line in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-30-17 |
Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-17 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Cubs are 21-8 to the over this season in home games where they are priced in a range of -175 to -250. After last night's low-scoring match-up stayed under the total, plenty of runs can be expected here. Chicago's Jose Quintana has a 4.50 ERA since coming over from the White Sox and he has been far from spectacular. The southpaw just got rocked for 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. Quintana did start against the Pirates two years ago and he allowed a pair of homers in that start. Pittsburgh will have Ivan Nova toeing the rubber at Wrigley Field tonight. The Pirates right-hander is struggling badly right now with 16 hits given up in less than 11 innings in his last two starts. Nova's only good road start since the All Star Break came at Milwaukee and that can have an asterisk by it because the Brewers just aren't hitting well right now. In Nova's other 4 road starts since mid-July he has given up 22 earned runs in 21 and 1 / 3 innings. As you would expect with those types of numbers, 3 of the 4 starts went over the total. As for Quintana, only 1 of his 4 home starts since coming to the Cubs has stayed under the total. With yesterday's win, the Cubs have won 9 of their last 13 games thanks to offensive production as they've averaged 6.85 runs per game during this hot stretch since mid-month! We look for plenty of success for both clubs at the plate tonight and we'll take advantage of the low total posted here. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in evening action Wednesday.
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