Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* James Madison +7 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible spot for App State here. They are now off 3 hugely emotional games to start the season and face a team that is in their first year of making the move from FCS to FBS. ASU lost 63-61 in their season opener vs big boy in-stater UNC missing a 2 point conversion that would have sent it to OT. Then they traveled to Texas A&M and pulled a huge upset winning in College Station 17-14. A&M has shown us they are not nearly as good as people thought (including us). Last week ESPN college game day was in Boone, NC for the App State vs Troy game so another game to get up for. On top of that, ASU scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game winning 32-28 in their first conference game. James Madison had last week off after winning their first 2 games by a combined score of 107-14! They outgained Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State by a combined almost 700 yards. Their 44-7 win over MTSU looks more impressive after the Blue Raiders went on to win their next 2 games by 15 and 43 points covering those games by a combined 52 points. JMU was one of the top few programs in FCS over the last 5 or so seasons so their success thus far is not surprising. The Dukes have been very balanced offensively with more than 200 yards both passing and rushing in each of their first 2 games. JMU made it to the FCS Final 4 or National Championship game in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Their overall record during that stretch was 70-11. This is a great program that will come more than ready to play in their first ever Sun Belt Conference game vs a team that we would almost guarantee is in for a letdown this week. We think they have a great shot at the outright win and getting a TD is a very nice cushion. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
#265 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +6.5 over Cleveland Browns, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Don’t you find it the least bit interesting the line on this game is -6.5 and not -7? They are begging you to bet the Ravens here but we won’t bite. Despite the loss last week, the Jets actually outplayed the Ravens for most of that game. New York had 11 more first downs and were plus +106 total yards. The Jets defense was outstanding, holding the Ravens to just 274 total yards of offense or 5.37 yards per play. This same Ravens offense was 6th in the NFL a year ago averaging nearly 380YPG. The Browns are coming off a dramatic road win in Carolina against their former QB in Baker Mayfield. Cleveland needed a FG with .08 seconds left to get the win. The Browns leaned on their running game which pounded out 217-rushing yards but if the Jets play defense like they did in the opener that will be tough to duplicate. Browns QB Jacoby Brissett was just OK last Sunday with 147 yards passing so it’s not like Cleveland is going to shred the Jets defense via the passing attack. The Jets don’t have great ATS trends as an underdog but we can’t also ignore the Browns 0-5 ATS streak as a favorite. Grab the points here. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | 20-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
#272 ASA PLAY ON 8* New Orleans Saints +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Saints here. Tampa Bay is on the road for the 2nd straight week after a big win in Dallas. New Orleans needed a come-from-behind effort in Atlanta to win. Were the Saints looking ahead to this game? Surprisingly, Tampa won last week in Dallas with their rushing attack. The Bucs rushed for 152 yards last week, but will that work this weekend against a Saints defense that was 4th in rushing D a year ago allowing just 93.5RYPG. A big question for New Orleans is how well QB Winston can manage the offense. He played well in the opener with 269 passing yards, 3 TD’s on 23 of 34 attempts. Saints WR Michael Thomas also made an immediate impact with 2 TD’s in his first game back since injury. The biggest factor in this game is going to be pressuring the quarterback. Dallas got to Brady twice last week and you need to pressure Brady to have a shot at winning. New Orleans was 8th in sacks a year ago and should spend plenty of time in the Bucs backfield. Last year at home the Saints were +4 and won with backup QB Trevor Siemian. The Saints sacked Brady 3 times in that game and forced him into 2 interceptions. In the 2nd meeting the Saints won again and sacked Brady 4 times with another INT. Since Tom Brady joined the Bucs the Saints are 4-1 SU/ATS with a net differential of Plus + 54 total points. Take the home dog here. |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
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09-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. UAB -11.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
#542 ASA play on 8* UAB -12 vs. Georgia Southern, 3:30 PM ET - This is a classic scheduling situational bet with Georgia Southern coming off a huge upset win over Nebraska as a 23-point dog, while UAB is coming off an upset loss as a favorite last week to Liberty. The Blazers loss last week was largely due to 4 turnovers or a net TO differential of minus -3. UAB relies on a strong running game which was 43rd in the nation a year ago at 183 rushing yards per game and has amassed 241RYPG in 2022. GA Southern will have a hard time holding up in the trenches considering they have allowed 257 rushing yards per game this season after giving up 162RYPG last season. UAB will wear down the Eagles defense which just allowed Nebraska to rush for 257-yards. Georgia Southern relies on their passing attack but UAB was solid in that defensive category a year ago allowing 228.1PYPG which was 67th in the nation. GA Southern had the 110th worst net differential a year ago at -12.6PPG, -18.8PPG when playing away. UAB was 3-2 SU at home last season with losses to Liberty and Rice. The Blazers three wins came against UTEP, LA Tech and FAU and were all by 14 or more points. We like a 2 TD win in this one. |
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09-17-22 | Buffalo +14 v. Coastal Carolina | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
#125 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +14 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo is undervalued here with an 0-2 record on the season. We also feel CC is overvalued coming in at 2-0. The Bulls lost @ Maryland to open the season and then last week lost on a hail mary as time expired vs Holy Cross. While that may seem like a terrible loss, it really wasn’t as Holy Cross is one of the top FCS programs and Buffalo was only favored by 6.5 in that game. The Bulls had more yardage in the 37-31 loss but nearly 100 yards of penalties hurt them. Coastal also played an FCS team last week but one that isn’t nearly as strong as Holy Cross. They Chanticleers beat Gardner Webb (ranked 88th in FCS power ratings) 31-27 as a 33 point favorite. However, they were outgained in that game by a whopping 140 yards and if not for a 95 yard kickoff they would have lost the game. Coastal was much better a year ago compared to this season ranking 117th in returning production. Even with that, they struggled to beat this Buffalo team in 2021 squeaking out a 28-25 win with the yardage nearly even. CC QB McCall is back but he doesn’t have much experience around him. They are shorthanded on offense with their top returning RB Bennett out and starting WR Brown possibly out. It’s going to be very tough for Coastal to pull away and get enough margin in this game to cover. We’ll call this one a close game and take the points |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
#124 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +11 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Don’t be surprised if Nebraska gives OU all they can handle here. First off, we think the coaching change and the firing of Scott Frost will rally this team that is actually pretty talented. They seem to really like interim head coach Mickey Joseph and he changed things up in practice this week with more physicality and an up tempo more game like situation. We had last year’s OU team power rated higher than this year’s current team and Nebraska gave the Sooners all they could handle on the road last year. The Huskers lost the game 23-16 but played Oklahoma basically dead even in YPP and had a shot at the upset. This year OU, and their entirely new coaching staff, has played 2 home games vs UTEP (112th) and Akron (127th) both power rated near the bottom college football as you can see. Last week they led Akron just 7-3 at half before overpowering a very bad Zips team and winning big in the 2nd half. Those 2 opponents have a combined 1-4 SU record on the season (UTEP beat a bad NM State team 20-13) and have been outscored 177-69. Needless to say, Oklahoma takes a big step up in competition this week and Lincoln is not an easy place to play. Win or lose, the fans come out each Saturday and this one will be a huge home game vs their former Big 12 rival. Nebraska hasn’t had a ton of success as of late but they rarely get blown out. Their last 13 losses have all come by single digits including vs both Ohio State and Michigan last year. Going back further, 21 of their last 26 losses have come by less than 10 points. The Nebraska offense is very potent averaging nearly 500 YPG on 6.8 YPP. We expect them to keep up here and give the OU defense big problems. Too many points here we like the home dog. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
#482 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle +7 over Denver, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver QB Russell Wilson makes his way back to Seattle for his debut for the Broncos. While we expect Wilson to do very well in Denver, this is his first game under a brand new system and he didn’t take a snap in the preseason. It’s going to take some time for Denver, under new head coach Hackett, to gel on both sides of the ball. Hackett has never been a head coach prior to this season and both his offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have never held those positions for any NFL team. Just a very inexperienced coaching staff and dangerous to lay a full TD on the road in the first game as they learn on the fly. Seattle will start Geno Smith at QB and he was 3-0 ATS last year when stepping in for an injured Wilson. The Seahawks did lose those 3 games SU, however Smith had them in position to win all 3. They lost by 3 on a late FG vs New Orleans, lost in OT vs Pittsburgh, and were within 6 points of Super Bowl Champion LA Rams with under 30 seconds remaining (lost by 9). He’s a veteran with 7,000 yards passing and if he can avoid the big mistakes, Seattle will have a shot to win this one at home (one of the top home fields in the NFL). Seattle is 63-23 SU their last 86 at home while Denver is 11-21 SU on the road since 2018. We realize those numbers are with Wilson at QB but the fact is Seattle is a tough place to play and Denver is not used to winning games on the road. Opening week Monday Night dogs have been big time money makers going 39-19-1 ATS since 1980. Too many unknowns for the Broncos to be laying a full TD on the road here. We’ll take Seattle and call for a close game. |
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ASA Football Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | 20-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
09-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. UAB -11.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
09-17-22 | Buffalo +14 v. Coastal Carolina | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |