11-03-18 |
Iowa v. Purdue -2.5 |
|
36-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
27 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #324
We really like this spot for the Boilers. Over the last month, we’ve been watching both of these teams very closely. We’ve felt that Iowa was overrated. They had won 3 straight games heading into last week’s loss @ Penn State. Their wins during that stretch came against Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. Their game prior to that run they lost by 11 points at home to a Wisconsin team that simply isn’t at the level they’ve been the past few years. Last week they lost @ PSU 30-24. A Nittany Lion team that is also down this year having lost 2 of their prior 3 games with their only win during that stretch coming @ Indiana despite getting outgained by nearly 140 yards. The Hawks were fairly fortunate last week as they scored on 2 safeties and a pick 6. Thus nearly half of their points vs the Lions were scored by the defense. Even with that they still lost. So Iowa has beat up on bad teams and lost to 2 marginal teams over their last 5 games. On top of that, last week’s game was huge for the Hawkeyes. It was a statement type game for them as they went on the road against a national name team hoping to pick up a good win. Off that loss we expect a bit of a letdown from them on the road for the 2nd straight week. Speaking of the road, Iowa has been away from home a lot as of late. This will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. Not ideal for the Hawkeyes. Purdue has been underrated in our mind. We took them a few weeks ago as a big underdog vs Ohio State and the Boilers dominated that game on their way to a 49-20 win. With head coach Jeff Brohm still building the program, it wasn’t a surprise they laid an egg last week @ Michigan State coming off their OSU win. After losing their first 3 games by a combined 9 points, this Purdue team has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss being last week’s clunker @ MSU. The offense has been playing great scoring 30+ points in 5 of their last 6 including topping 40 points 3 times. Now back at home we expect a great game out of the Boilermakers and we’ll lay this small number. Look for a blowout home win for the Boilermakers in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
11-03-18 |
Nebraska v. Ohio State -18.5 |
|
31-36 |
Loss |
-106 |
24 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #334
Nebraska enters this game off an easy win versus an FCS team so they actually were able to rest starters in that one after half-time. However, though the Cornhuskers will be somewhat rested here, the Buckeyes are not only fully rested (off bye week) but also very angry after their loss to Purdue two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers have a very potent offense this season and Ohio State found that out first-hand in the loss at Purdue. Though the Boilermakers piled up 539 yards in that game, the Buckeyes actually outgained them! With that said, the 29 points margin of defeat was certainly quite deceiving. In any event, the fact now is that this Ohio State team has had extra time to build up their aggression in terms of a huge response in this game. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense had allowed an average of just 17 points per game over a 6-game stretch that preceded the loss at Purdue. Also, Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their 4 meetings with Nebraska that have come since the Cornhuskers moved into the Big Ten. In fact, the last 3 Buckeyes wins over Nebraska have come by an average margin of 42 points per game! Nebraska is allowing 200 rushing yards per game in Big Ten action this season and the Buckeyes are going to respond after a very rare horrible effort on the ground versus Purdue. This is the Buckeyes only home game over a period of 5 weeks so you know they are looking to make the most of it. On the Big Ten road, the Huskers lost games to Michigan and Wisconsin by an average margin of 31.5 points per game and we fully expect this one to be decided in the 30 point range as well! Look for a blowout home win for the deservedly heavy-favorite Buckeyes in this early Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
11-02-18 |
Colorado +3 v. Arizona |
|
34-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Buffaloes (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Friday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #319
The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight after a 5-0 start to the season. While road losses at USC and Washington were not unexpected, the home loss to Oregon State last week certainly was. Colorado actually led that game 31-3 before allowing the Beavers to outscore them 31-3 the rest of the way! Oregon State then won the game in overtime. This type of result (blowing a 28 point lead at home) is going to bring out a huge effort from the Buffaloes here. Consider it "lesson learned" for Colorado and the Buffaloes are now catching the Wildcats at the perfect time to get a road win. Arizona is off a huge upset over Oregon as a home dog of more than a TD! The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes an upset of the Buffaloes at Boulder last year. That said, now it is payback time and it is Colorado's turn for revenge after the Wildcats got their big revenging win (versus the Ducks) last week. Basically Arizona played the "perfect game" last week and it is often after games like those that teams fall very flat in their next game. As for the Buffaloes, there is no way they'll be flat after last week's result versus the Beavers. In terms of technical support here, there is plenty as the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS when at home and facing a team playing with revenge. Colorado is 9-1 ATS when on the road and playing with revenge. The visitor is also 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams! Additionally, the Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin! We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Friday late night match-up.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida OVER 60.5 |
|
40-52 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Temple Owl at Central Florida Knights, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #313
Even though Knights QB McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable for this game, his back-up is a very capable option for UCF. The 6'3 230 lb has the size and skills necessary to give the Owls defense all sorts of trouble here. Where Temple does hold an edge here however, is with their offense over the Knights defense as well and that is even if RB Ryquell Armstead does not play. That's because the Owls can still attack this Knights D early and often through the air. Take note that UCF only gave up 10 points last week but they allowed nearly 500 yards. Of course give the Knights credit for notching 5 turnovers in that game but you can see that Central Florida definitely had trouble getting stops other than through the good fortune of turnovers. In their prior game UCF also had allowed close to 500 yards and, earlier this season in a home game versus Florida Atlantic, the Knights gave up 447 yards! As you can tell, the Central Florida defense leaves a lot to be desired but their offensive production certainly deserves merit. UCF is averaging 44.4 points and 537.1 yards per game this season. Temple is 8-4 to the over as an underdog and, per our computer math model, another over is on tap in this one down in Orlando tonight. Bet the over in this early Thursday evening match-up.
|
10-30-18 |
Kent State +1 v. Bowling Green |
|
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Bowling Green Falcons, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #303
Both of these teams are having tough seasons but Bowling Green has already endured a coaching change (have an interim as head coach was fired a couple weeks ago) and certainly the Falcons appear to be the lesser team at this point in the season. While both teams have struggled on defense, the Golden Flashes have allowed 27.3 points per game their last 3 games while Bowling Green has allowed at least 35 points in every game this season. In fact, the Falcons are allowing an average of 47.8 points per game on the year! Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less points. Kent State is 4-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and 2 of the Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by just a single point. While Kent State has been on the verge of victory twice in their three most recent games, the Falcons have been outscored by an average of 22.2 points per game this season and their slimmest margin of defeat has been 7 points. We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Tuesday evening match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 |
Top |
35-38 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180
Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.
|
10-27-18 |
Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 |
Top |
41-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162
The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
South Florida v. Houston -7.5 |
|
36-57 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Cougars (-) over South Florida Bulls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184
When an opening line makes you scratch your head, you know you're onto something! The point in this exact instance is that the Cougars were as large as a 9 point favorite when lines first came out for this one even though it is South Florida that is undefeated on the season and it is the Bulls that are the ranked team! Of course the underdog has attracted some attention here as a result but this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds maker. The fact is that Houston has faced a tougher schedule in comparison with South Florida and the Bulls continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. That is evident by the fact that USF is on a 1-4 ATS skid. Also note that Houston has won 3 straight meetings with the Bulls plus the Cougars are looking to take advantage of their only home game in a 4-week span while South Florida could be a bit "gassed" as USF is playing their 3rd road game in the past 4 weeks. The Bulls certainly were unimpressive last week as they barely got by one of the worst teams in FBS (Connecticut) and that game was at South Florida! When USF is a dog of more than 5 points and playing with revenge the Bulls are 2-8 ATS their last 10. Look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Georgia -6.5 v. Florida |
|
36-17 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #167
Both teams are off a bye week entering this week's annual neutral site game between these SEC foes. The difference for these teams is what happened in the prior week. Prior to their bye the Gators won and have now won 5 straight games while the Bulldogs lost and that ended Georgia's 6-game win streak. That means you're going to see a huge effort from Georgia this week. Yes, Florida has revenge from a bad loss to the Bulldogs last year but the difference will again prove to be the ground game. The Bulldogs had a rare "off" performance versus LSU as the Tigers ran all over them. Prior to that game Georgia had allowed an average of just 113 rushing yards per game on the season. Florida entered their win over Vandy (before the bye) having allowed 172.5 rushing yards per game this season. Just like last year, look for the Bulldogs to again win the battle in the trenches. The Gators are on a 3-8 ATS run as an underdog. Georgia is 6-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field and the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS when off a loss in SEC action. Look for a rout win for the favored Bulldogs in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Oregon State v. Colorado OVER 62 |
|
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Oregon State Beavers @ Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3 PM ET: Game #153
Beautiful weather in Boulder, Colorado for this one as normally late October weather there is much different than the unseasonably mild temperatures and spectacular conditions expected Saturday afternoon. Of course that is just one of the key factors in support of an over here. The Buffaloes will take advantage of an Oregon State defense that ranks among the worst in the nation as they allow 47.3 points per game and 541 yards per game. What is surprising about the Beavers that not many people realize is they do move the ball quite well on offense. Oregon State is averaging 28 points per game on the season as well as 423.4 total yards per game. Long-term the over is 8-2 when the Beavers are a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Oregon State is off an under last week as it was a rare poor performance from the offense but this has led to more value this week as the Buffs defense is certainly nothing special. Also, the Beavers were 5-1 to the over prior to last week's game. Adding to the value here is that Colorado has trended under all season long but it does not make sense based on the production the offense has had this season and in looking at the numbers on defense since they had a strong opening games versus Colorado State in Week 1. The one word here as a result? Value. Look for an all-out shootout in this Saturday afternoon PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-25-18 |
Georgia Tech +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
49-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #111
The Yellow Jackets have won each of the last two meetings between these teams and we look for the streak to reach 3-0 on Thursday evening. The underdog has not only covered the last 5, they've actually won the game outright each of the last five meetings. In fact, the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 13 meetings between the Hokies and the Jackets. Both teams are coming off a bye but the concern with Virginia Tech is a suspect defense. The Hokies were fortunate to beat North Carolina prior to their bye week as Virginia Tech allowed over 500 yards in that game and was outgained by nearly 150 yards by a Tar Heels team that is truly not a very good football team this season. Look for Georgia Tech (352 rushing yards per game) to control this one on the ground and that gives the road dog Yellow Jackets the edge in this one. We'll grab the available points as we do expect a road upset in this Thursday early evening match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Ohio State v. Purdue +12.5 |
|
20-49 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #334
This is a very dangerous game for the Buckeyes. They simply aren’t playing very well right now while Purdue is playing lights out. OSU wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as we may have originally thought. They came from double digits down to beat TCU which looked great at the time. TCU has since gone on to lose 2 of their next 3 games with their only win coming at home vs Iowa State by just 3 points. The Buckeyes were completely outplayed at PSU (outgained by 100+ yards) and pulled out a 1-point win late. The following week they struggled to pull away from a poor Indiana team a few weeks ago leading by just 8 at half. They pulled away late but it wasn’t an overly impressive performance. Last week they were 30 point favorites vs a Minnesota team that is very young starting a freshman at QB and RB. It was a 9-point game midway through the fourth quarter and the Bucks won by 30-14. Again, not impressive. They are struggling to run the ball averaging 3.2 YPC or less in all 3 of their Big Ten games. Purdue is definitely better than their 3-3 record. They were winless their first 3 games but those losses came by a total of 8 points. They have since won 3 straight games with all 3 coming by at least 13 points. The offense for Purdue is performing at a high level as they’ve averaged 39 PPG over their last 4 games. QB David Blough has been lights out completing 68% of his passes for almost 400 YPG over their last 4 contests. Defensively the Boilers held Illinois, who had rushed for 200+ in every game this year, to just 69 yards on the ground last week. Now facing an OSU team that has struggled to run the ball we think they can make the Buckeyes fairly one-dimensional in this game. Purude has now covered 4 straight games by a combined 64 points. They are undervalued right now. It’s a rare, huge home game at night for them and we think OSU should be put on upset alert in this one. Take the points.
|
10-20-18 |
Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -12 |
|
7-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
30 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kentucky Wildcats (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #312
When a team is rolling they do not necessarily want a bye but when off a loss it can be a welcome chance to regroup and then come out flying immediately in their very next game. This is precisely what we expect from Kentucky here. The Wildcats were 5-0 on the season but then two weeks ago the Cats faced Texas A & M and lost by 6 as it was clearly Kentucky's worst game of the season. Even with the defeat the Wildcats are allowing just 13.8 points per game on the year. The Cats defense has been rock solid this season while the Commodores come into this game having allowed 35.5 points per game their past 4 games. Vanderbilt's defense has allowed more yardage in their last 4 games than Kentucky's D has allowed this entire season - 6 games! The Commodores are allowing an average of 510.8 yards per game their last 4 games. The Wildcats are giving up just 304.8 yards per game on the year. From a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this. Kentucky is off a bye week which followed their very first loss of the season while Vandy has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the only win was by just 4 points against an FCS school. The Commodores were favored by 4 touchdowns in that game and yet won by only 4 points! Vanderbilt is playing their 8th straight week while Kentucky is rested. Also, Vandy is on a 1-10 ATS run against SEC foes as they continue to prove to be outclassed against conference opposition. The Wildcats should dominate the ground game here again versus the Commodores. That was a key in last years win by a 23 point margin for Kentucky and that was on the road! The Wildcats have outgained Vanderbilt 490-201 in rushing yardage the past two meetings. Per our math model forecast, the hungry home favorite to control this one from start to finish as the Cats defense continues to dominate while Vandy's porous D continues to be burned by big plays. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 45 |
Top |
3-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403
This total made an interesting move this week. It opened at 44.5 and even though more than 75% are on the UNDER, it moved up a point. We liked the OVER to begin with and that move definitely signals a play on here. LSU’s offense is playing much better than most give it credit for. They have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this year. They are perfectly balanced on offense averaging 202 YPG rushing and 202 YPG passing which makes them very tough to defend. Last week against a very good Georgia defense the Tigers put up 36 points and almost 500 yards! We think they’ll do some damage vs a Mississippi State defense that has solid numbers but has played a number of weak offenses including Stephen F Austin, UL Lafayette, Kansas State, and Florida. This will be the most productive offense they’ve faced this season. On the other side of the ball LSU played great last week. They held Georgia to 16 points in a 20 point win. We have a feeling the Tigers put a LOT of emotional effort into that game knowing they were playing a very good Bulldog offense. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if they had a bit of a letdown on that side of the ball. Especially with Alabama on deck after next week’s bye. LSU has been solid defensively but they have given up 21+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Mississippi State’s offense was rolling early in the season and their totals were mainly set in the high 50’s and low 60’s. They then hit a rough patch on offense vs Kentucky and Florida on back to back weekends but bounced back on that side of the ball last week vs Auburn. The Dogs scored 23 points on 418 yards last week and we look for them to land in that range again this week. Where this total sits right now, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the range of 26-19 in favor of LSU. We feel both offenses top those point totals and we take the OVER here. Our math model forecast suggests that you can look for a surprisingly high scoring all out shootout in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #314
Cincinnati is a ranked team and the Bearcats are 6-0 SU on the season. Of course this begs the question how can they be an underdog against a 4-3 Temple team? The answer to that is that nothing is ever as easy as it seems on the surface! The fact is that the odds makers are projecting the Cats to suffer their first loss of the season and we are too! Temple has played the tougher schedule in comparison with Cincinnati. Also, the Bearcats lose some momentum with the bye week last week. A team usually doesn't benefit from a bye when they were already rolling in the first place. What a bye usually does in a case like this is actually let some air out of the tires and the team all of the sudden loses their timing (in terms of execution) and suddenly is no longer on a roll. This is the first time this season that the Bearcats will face a team that has a winning record at the time of the match-up. That is certainly noteworthy as Cincinnati went 2-7 ATS (and 0-9 SU!) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record! The Owls continue to be a covering machine and that includes going 17-3 ATS (15-5 SU) in their last 20 games versus American Athletic Conference opponents. The Owls have allowed just 108 passing yards per game their past 5 games. Temple won each of the last two meetings versus Cincinnati by an average margin of 15 points per game. Our math model is forecasting another rout win in this match-up! Look for a home blowout in this very early Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.
|
10-19-18 |
Air Force -10 v. UNLV |
|
41-35 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (-) over UNLV Rebels, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309
Even though Falcons QB Donald Hammond III got hurt in the most recent game, the Air Force offense moved the ball just fine with Isaiah Sanders at the helm. Just about any offense in College Football can move the ball well against this porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have allowed an average of 54.5 points per game their past two games and that is bad news for UNLV fans because their offense is having major issues without QB Armani Rogers. The Rebels are on a 1-8 ATS run as a home dog and get blasted again here. Air Force has allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games while the Rebels have allowed over 500 yards each of their past two games. Complete mismatch especially with the ground game (Rogers was leading rusher for UNLV). Look for the Falcons to get the cash here. We'll lay the points as we expect a road rout in this Friday late night match-up.
|
10-18-18 |
Stanford v. Arizona State +3 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #306
Stanford has allowed an average of 36.3 points per game their last 3 games. Arizona State is allowing an average of 21.2 points per game on the season and the Sun Devils have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season. The Sun Devils ground game on offense is averaging 175.2 rushing yards per game this season and that is more than double the 85.7 rushing yards per game that the Cardinal are averaging. We love taking home dogs that have a great shot at the edge in the all-important departments of defense as well as the ground game! Stanford is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Weeks Five through Nine of a season. Arizona State is on a 12-4 ATS run in home games and also 7-3 ATS when off a loss against a conference rival. Look for the Sun Devils to get the cash here. We'll grab the points for added insurance but we expect a home upset in this Thursday night match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Colorado v. USC -6.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156
With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Georgia v. LSU +7.5 |
|
16-36 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET Game #198: Many will be set to jump off LSU’s bandwagon after they picked up their first loss of the season last week @ Florida. That result has helped the value here pushing this number above a TD. Last week’s game @ Florida showed a near even stand off on the stat sheet with Florida scoring on an interception return with under 2:00 minutes remaining to salt away the 27-19 win. LSU has been a home dog just 6 times since 2010 and they’ve won half of those games (3) outright. Georgia is a bit overvalued in our opinion. They are undefeated but have yet to be challenged. Their schedule thus far has been fairly weak as this will be by far their toughest test of the season. The Bulldogs have played just 2 road games this year and their most recent one @ Mizzou was a 14 point win with 2 non-offensive TD’s fueling that win in a game that was nearly dead even on the stat sheet. Another key point is UGA has yet to be in a stressful, close game situation due to their fairly easy schedule and we expect them to have some serious adversity for the first time this season in this game. Georgia has never been higher than a 1-point favorite @ LSU and now they are being asked to lay more than a TD. We like LSU to bounce back and play very well this week. We give them a decent shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.
|
10-13-18 |
Baylor +14.5 v. Texas |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #187
Perfect spot to fade the Longhorns as they are off of their huge win in their annual rivalry game with Oklahoma last week. Texas expended a ton of energy in securing the victory as the Horns blew a huge lead against the Sooners. Couple that with the fact that Baylor is out for revenge this season (embarrassed 38-7 in Waco last year) and you can see that the set up here is a great one. The Bears are highly motivated while the Longhorns certainly could come out flat as they have won 5 straight games and might get caught looking ahead to their bye. While Baylor also has a bye on deck there is no way they're looking past the Horns after what happened in last season's 31 point home loss. This is a large line given the situation as well as the fact that the Bears, should they need it, also certainly have "backdoor cover" potential here as their offense is averaging 500 yards per game this season. However, we don't expect this game to come down to needing a backdoor cover as our computer math model forecast has the Bears hanging close throughout this game and actually having a shot at the outright upset. The Longhorns are only 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Also, Texas is an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team playing with revenge. That system fits perfectly here and we have no doubt about the type of effort the Bears are going to bring in this one! Look for the big road dog to stay well within the number in this Saturday afternoon BIG 12 match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Washington v. Oregon OVER 57.5 |
|
27-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 25 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #159
Beautiful weather at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon for this one and we're expecting a bit of a "track meet" here. The Ducks are averaging 45.6 points per game this season as Oregon has averaged over 500 yards of offense per game. Washington allowed just 24 points last week but the Huskies did give up over 400 yards of offense and that was against a UCLA team that remains winless on the season at 0-5. Now Washington faces a Ducks team that is out for revenge after being embarrassed in each of the last two meetings. Oregon is a different team when Justin Herbert is at QB and healthy. While he and his Ducks teammates are sure to put up a ton of points in this revenge opportunity, the problem with the Ducks is their defense has allowed an average of 54 points to the Huskies the past two seasons. Washington enters this game having scored an average of 32 points per game their last 5 games. The Ducks, as noted above, have been piling up points but the Oregon defense has allowed 412.5 yards per game in PAC-12 games this season. The over is 18-6 in the Ducks last 24 home games! The over is 5-2 in Washington's last 7 October games. This will be the toughest offense the Huskies have faced this season. On the flip side, the Huskies offense will take advantage of a Ducks defense that has been susceptible since conference action began. Oregon is ranked 15th out of 130 teams in terms of offensive efficiency (yards per play) and Washington's offense has piled up points against this Ducks defense each of the last two meetings. Look for an all-out shootout in this Saturday afternoon PAC-12 match-up.
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10-12-18 |
Arizona +13.5 v. Utah |
|
10-42 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 4 m |
Show
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ASA 9* Arizona Wildcats (+) over Utah Utes, Friday at 10:00 PM ET - The Utes are off of a big upset win at Stanford last week. Utah also has USC on deck. From a situational perspective, this game certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Utes. Also, Arizona has revenge from losing each of the last two meetings including last season's game which the Wildcats lost at home. The Cats are getting about two touchdowns in this spot and the big dog is offering significant line value. After dropping their first two games this season, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS their last 4 games. Even though Utah won last week at Stanford they were outgained in that game. Also, last season's match-up between these teams saw the Utes get outgained by over 100 yards by the Wildcats in a game that had a deceiving final score. We look for Arizona to improve to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Utah is 1-3 ATS this season in games played on turf. Bet ARIZONA
|
10-11-18 |
Georgia Southern v. Texas State OVER 49 |
|
15-13 |
Loss |
-107 |
27 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* OVER – Georgia Southern @ Texas State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams run the ball very well and we just don't foresee either defense getting many stops in this game as each of these teams is also allowing a lot of yardage on the ground as well. The Bobcats, other than their lone game versus an FCS foe, have allowed an average of over 200 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles have allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game their last 3 games. With both teams able to establish the run in this game that serves to open up opportunities downfield in the passing game as the front seven of the defense must respect the running game. That being said, there should be plenty of points in this game and we are getting extra value with this total as it has moved down from the low 50s to the upper 40s. In road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points, Georgia Southern is 5-0 to the over. In games against teams with a losing record, the Eagles are 8-3 to the over. Texas State is 2-0 to the over in home games this season and, in recent seasons, is on a 6-3 run to the over in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 of a season. The Bobcats are scoring an average of 29 points per game their last 4 games. Georgia State, other than their game against Clemson's D (and Texas State D is at the other end of the spectrum compared to Clemson), has averaged 37 points per game in their other 4 games this season. Bet the OVER in Texas State Thursday.
|
10-09-18 |
Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5 |
|
35-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* Arkansas State (+) over Appalachian State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a case where perception doesn't meet reality. Yes Appalachian State is 5-0 on the season but they've played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State has. Now, on the road, and in a primetime rare national TV game for Arkansas State at home, the Red Wolves are going to be amped up. Getting double digits at home in a situation like this is a great value and the Red Wolves are 7-0-1 ATS in October games. Also, Arkansas State is 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. The Red Wolves pass defense has been great except for when they played Alabama and who stops the Crimson Tide? That said, we feel the Mountaineers are going to struggle to get any type of significant margin in this Tuesday night road game against the Red Wolves. Play ARKANSAS STATE
|
10-06-18 |
Utah v. Stanford -5 |
|
40-21 |
Loss |
-106 |
56 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #364
The questionable status of Bryce Love has resulted in a very favorable line here. Even if he did not play in this game we do not expect this to be a significant factor. Keep in mind the Cardinal have been getting the job done through the air rather than on the ground. 72% of their yardage this season has come via the passing attack and they're hosting a Utah team that allowed 445 passing yards at Washington State last week! This is absolutely a critical game for Stanford as they have a bye week on deck and they want to respond after a dismal effort at Notre Dame last week. After that non-conference game, the Cardinal will be highly motivated for a Pac 12 match-up. Also, from mid-September to late October, this is the only home game for Stanford so they want to make it count to say the least! The Utes, since a road win at Arizona early last season, have gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 Pac 12 games and that includes an 0-2 start this season. Stanford is 12-2 SU in their last 14 regular season games and 9 of the 12 wins have come by 7 points or more. Based on the above, you can see why we're very comfortable laying the points here as this line has been holding at under a touchdown during this week leading up to the game. Lay the points and look for the home team to win in a blowout in this Saturday late night match-up.
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10-06-18 |
LSU -115 v. Florida |
|
19-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
49 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #333
The Gators are off of a huge win last week as it was head coach Dan Mullen's former team, the Bulldogs, that they defeated at Mississippi State. Off of that win as a touchdown underdog, we're not sure the Gators are going to have enough left in the tank to take down the Tigers! LSU has a powerful ground attack and their QB, Joe Burrow, has become more and more comfortable in this offense with each game that he gets under his belt. The Tigers threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win versus Ole Miss plus LSU ran for nearly 300 yards too. The Tigers have averaged nearly 250 rushing yards the past two weeks and Florida gave up an average of 262.5 rushing yards per game in their first two games this season. They can be run on by a strong ground game and not only does LSU possess that, they also possess an improving passing game that is forcing opponents to respect that as well. While LSU should certainly be able to move the ball quite well here, note that the Tigers defense is allowing just 103 rushing yards per game. Florida has run the ball on 60% of their plays their last 3 games. The Gators prefer to run but are going to have trouble doing that against this LSU defense. The Tigers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and this line has gone from LSU near a -3 to nearly a pick'em as of Thursday afternoon. This is offering even more line value with the team that has taken 6 of the last 8 meetings in this series! The Gators are 1-5 ATS when entering a game off back to back straight up and ATS wins. Florida is also 1-4 ATS when off a double digit ATS cover but facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin. Both of those systems fit here and we also like the fact that Kentucky blasted the Gators by double digits here in Gainesville last month and LSU is entering this game having gone 11-1 SU their last 12 regular season games with the lone loss coming at Alabama. Florida is certainly no Alabama! We expect a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
10-06-18 |
Iowa -7 v. Minnesota |
Top |
48-31 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387
The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
10-05-18 |
Utah State v. BYU -2 |
|
45-20 |
Loss |
-108 |
57 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* BYU (-) over Utah State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Cougars are off a rough game @ Washington losing 35-7. It was a poor performance on both sides of the ball against one of the top teams in the nation so we expect a big effort at home in a game BYU needs to win. They come in with a 3-2 overall record but they’ve also played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far already facing the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, California, and Washington. They are one of just 6 teams in the nation that have already faced 4 Power Five teams. They beat both Wisconsin & Arizona on the road so this team is definitely capable. The one negative we see with this game is they do catch Utah State off a bye which we’re not crazy about. However, USU has played a MUCH easier schedule. They played Michigan State tough in a 7-point loss to open the season. They were a little lucky to stay close in that game as they were outgained by over 100 yards and benefitted from a interception return for TD. Since that game the Aggies have played New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, and Air Force. So while BYU has been playing a tough slate of teams to prepare them for this spot, USU has been padding their overall stats vs weak opponents. The Aggies offensive numbers are impressive, but the last 3 games they’ve faced the 103rd ranked defense (NMSU), 70th ranked defense (Air Force) and a Tennessee Tech defense that has allowed 51 PPG this year. These two met last year @ Utah State and BYU was a 1-point favorite in that game. Now a much improved BYU team is laying just 2 points at home. The Aggies won last year 40-26 at home but it was a misleading final score as BYU outgained them 396 to 288. BYU had a ridiculous 7 turnovers in that game which led to the USU win. Now Utah State will attempt to beat BYU in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 1974 season! It won’t happen here as the Cougars will be focused and play very well after their worst outing of the season. Lay this small number at home with BYU
|
10-04-18 |
Georgia State v. Troy OVER 54 |
|
20-37 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* OVER – Georgia State @ Troy, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - The Panthers erupted for 46 points in last week's win and will take advantage of a Trojans defense that has allowed nearly 400 yards per game in their 4 match-ups with FBS schools this season. The issue for Georgia State however is that, prior to beating a struggling UL Monroe team, the Panthers had given up over 500 yards in each of their 3 prior games. This Georgia State defense is unlikely to enjoy much success this week either as Troy comes into this one having averaged 41 points per game their past 4 games. Also, the Trojans have totaled over 450 yards of offense in 3 of their last 4 games. Troy is 4-1 to the over this season. Also, their non-road games (home or neutral field) are on a 6-1 run to the over dating back to last season. With the downward line move on this total it has fallen into our play range as we fully expect plenty of points in this one. Bet the OVER in Troy Thursday.
|
09-29-18 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 |
|
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #207
Even though Stanford allowed "only" 31 points against Oregon last week, it certainly could have been more as they gave up 524 yards of offense to the Ducks. Their past two weeks (one against Cal Davis!) the Cardinal have conceded an average of 302 passing yards per game. The Fighting Irish offense is firing on all cylinders after erupting for over 550 yards and 56 points last week at Wake Forest. This is a match-up of undefeated teams both ranked in the Top Ten and we expect the offenses to be in the story in this one. Stanford has plenty of momentum after rallying for the big win at Oregon last week while Notre Dame is seeking revenge for the 38-20 loss at Stanford last season. The Fighting Irish did gain over 400 yards against the Cardinal but were done in by 3 turnovers. In other words, they're in line for much more than 20 points here as they are likely to pile up yardage at home but the issue for Notre Dame will be stopping the Cardinal. This could be a breakout game for Bryce Love as the Irish allowed over 250 yards on the ground last week against the Demon Deacons. Of course Stanford's ability to get the ground game going softens up the defense for then attacking through the air and the Cardinal have already thrown for over 300 yards in wins over Oregon and San Diego State this season. When Stanford is an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points, they've gone 4-0 to the over their last 4. The over is 3-1 in Notre Dame's last 4 games versus Pac-12 opponents. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this Saturday evening match-up involving Top Ten teams..
|
09-29-18 |
South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141
When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
09-29-18 |
Florida v. Mississippi State -7 |
|
13-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
34 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #194
Mississippi State is in bounce back mode after they appeared to look right past Kentucky and lost 28-7 last week as a double digit favorite. While Florida is 3-1 so far this season and has rolled to a 3-1 ATS mark they've been in their preferred role as a favorite. As an underdog the past two seasons the Gators went an ugly 1-9 ATS and that includes 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Florida's head coach Dan Mullen is facing his former team and the Bulldogs will have some extra motivation as the message was that he left under the premise the grass was greener on the other side of the fence! The Gators won by 26 at Tennessee last week but actually barely outgained the Volunteers in that game and that is helping to add to the line value in this match-up. The spread had been above 7 but has settled back in at 7 as of early Friday morning. Mississippi State is on a 4-0 ATS run when hosting the Gators. Though these teams have faced very similar schedules early this season, the Bulldogs offense has averaged over 100 yards more than the Florida offense while allowing about 70 yards less per game on the other side of the ball. Take the highly motivated home team that has outperformed this foe on both sides of the ball so far this season and that is ready to respond after that unexpected loss to the Wildcats. Clearly the Bulldogs were looking ahead to this match-up and they'll be ready here. We expect a home blowout in this Saturday early evening match-up.
|
09-29-18 |
Michigan v. Northwestern +15 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Northwestern Wildcats (+) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET: Game #210
When off of their regular season bye week, Northwestern is 3-0 ATS their last 3. The Wildcats needed the bye after a disappointing (and highly unexpected) home loss to Akron as a 3-TD underdog. Northwestern did out-gain the Zips by 124 yards and have held each of their last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. The Wildcats did lose RB Jeremy Larkin as he is being forced to retire due to a medical condition but look for them to rally around this factor and have a huge home game performance versus Michigan here. The Wolverines have won 3 straight games by big margins but their schedule has been light since opening up the season with a loss to Notre Dame. That loss to the Fighting Irish dropped Michigan to 7-15 ATS the last 22 times they've been a road favorite and we feel they're getting far too much respect from the betting markets in this match-up. This line has climbed from its opener and is now above the two TD mark (14.5 / 15) as of early Friday morning. Michigan is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on grass. Northwestern is 3-0 ATS when off B2B straight-up losses and also 15-4 ATS their last 19 in Big Ten action. Excellent home dog value with the Wildcats. Grab the big points and look for the home team to hang tough in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-28-18 |
Memphis v. Tulane OVER 66 |
|
24-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 23 m |
Show
|
OVER – Memphis @ Tulane, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The Tigers offense has scored at least 52 points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Green Wave, before facing Ohio State last week, had averaged over 400 yards of offense per game so far this season. The Tulane defense is most certainly a weakness as they have allowed nearly 500 yards of offense per game so far this season. The Tigers D allowed 465 yards last week and 35 points and that was at home. Memphis, when on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games, the over is 28-10 long-term including 10-2 in recent seasons. Tulane, in weeks 5 through 9 in a season, are 6-2 to the over their last 8 games. Last year these teams combined for 82 points. This season Memphis games have totaled more than 80 points in 3 of 4 games. That is why, though this O/U is a big number, it is very likely to prove to not be nearly high enough. The Tigers offense is one of the tops in the nation for efficiency as they are averaging 8.7 yards per play on offense. Bet the OVER in Tulane Friday.
|
09-27-18 |
North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 |
|
10-47 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 27 m |
Show
|
Miami Hurricanes (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels at 8 PM ET Thursday - The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these ACC foes. Even though Miami has Florida State on deck, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 ACC openers. The Canes have been very strong on defense this season and while the North Carolina defense has struggled badly. With the line opening as high as 21.5 and now down to as low as 17.5, there is additional value here as this one does have the makings of a home blowout. The Tar Heels finally got into the win column last week versus Pittsburgh so this is the perfect spot to fade them off of the home dog upset. Combined edges above of 13-2 (87%) ATS in favor of a play on the big home favorite here. Lay the points with Miami
|
09-22-18 |
Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 |
Top |
32-42 |
Loss |
-108 |
36 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392
Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.
|
09-22-18 |
Stanford v. Oregon OVER 55.5 |
|
38-31 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #355
The Ducks got crushed by the Cardinal last year but didn't have their QB Justin Herbert. Last season when he played for Oregon the Ducks went 6-2 and scored an average of 49 points per game. When Herbert was out the Ducks went 1-4 and averaged 15 points per game. Considering Stanford allowed 238 passing yards per game the past two weeks and that one of those games was against Cal Davis, it is certainly reasonable to expect that Oregon is likely to have success attacking the Cardinal through the air. Of course the Ducks also have a potent ground attack too. The issue for Oregon is that their defense struggles against the balanced attack that Stanford has presented to them in recent years. The past two seasons the Cardinal have averaged 50.5 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game in matching up with the Ducks. Stanford - Oregon match-ups have gone over in 13 of the last 20 and, also, the Ducks are on an 11-5 run to the over in home games. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this Saturday evening Pac-12 match-up.
|
09-22-18 |
Michigan State -4 v. Indiana |
|
35-21 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #317
The Spartans did win by 8 over the Hoosiers last year but this game still means plenty to them. Not only is it their Big Ten opener and not only are they off of a loss (at Arizona State prior to last week's bye), Michigan State did lose their last visit to Indiana. The Spartans were favored in that game and had won their prior visit to Indiana by a 39-point winning margin. Suffice to say the loss was unexpected and the Spartans will also be "more than ready" here as a result of the late-game collapse against the Sun Devils two weeks ago. Even though the Hoosiers are 3-0 SU this season they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with 1-1 Michigan State. This is helping to add to the line value here. Now things toughen up for Indiana and they bring an ugly 6-12 SU mark (and 5-13 ATS) in Big Ten action into this game. The Spartans only have Central Michigan (a MAC team) on deck so they're certainly going to play hard for the full sixty minutes here - especially after blowing their prior game at ASU! One final ATS tightener here is that when Indiana is a Big Ten dog of less than 21 points, they've gone 3-20-2 ATS! We like those odds as the hungry Spartans make up for their last visit to Bloomington! We'll gladly lay the rather short number being offered in this Saturday evening Big Ten match-up.
|
09-22-18 |
Clemson -15 v. Georgia Tech |
|
49-21 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #337
The key to success against the Yellow Jackets is stopping the option attack. Of course the Tigers are known for their defense but what has been especially impressive about Clemson's recent meetings with Georgia Tech is that they've been great against the Yellow Jackets ground game. Georgia Tech has been held to an average of just 121.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry in their last 3 meetings with the Tigers. For a team that relies on their rushing attack to move the ball, those are very poor numbers. That said, though Clemson won those 3 meetings by an average margin of 17 points per game, the victory margin easily could have been much more. On Saturday, we feel it absolutely will be much more! The Tigers have already faced two ground-based offenses (Furman and Georgia Southern) in the first three weeks of the season so they'll again be geared up for stopping the Yellow Jackets offense. The key to a blowout margin this season is the fact that the Jackets defense has allowed an average of 36.5 points per game the past two weeks and they now face a Tigers team averaging 38 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game. While the Yellow Jackets have put up some impressive stats on offense this season, they now face one of the top defenses in the nation and a D that has been a nemesis for them for 3 years straight! Georgia Tech lost some key personnel from last year's defense and Clemson will exploit those holes just like South Florida did when the Bulls put up 49 points on the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-21-18 |
Penn State v. Illinois OVER 60 |
|
63-24 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 20 m |
Show
|
OVER – Penn State @ Illinois, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Penn State offense is clicking right now to say the least. After struggling a big in their opener vs App State (they still scored 38 points in regulation and 45 points for the game) the Nittany Lions have gone up and down the field at will the last two weeks. They scored 51 points on a solid Pittsburgh defense that allowed just 19 points to Georgia Tech last week with the Jackets scoring their final TD with just 35 seconds remaining in the game. Last week PSU topped that offensive performance by putting up 63 points and 643 yards Kent State. Head coach James Franklin has never been opposed to running up the score as witnessed last week when they scored 28 in the first half and 35 in the second half when the game was already well out of reach. The Illinois defense is allowing 21 PPG through three contests this year but those numbers could and should be much worse. That’s because the Illini are allowing almost 500 YPG and over 6 YPP to opposing offenses this season. Those numbers usually equate to many more points on the board than they have been giving up. On top of that, we’re talking about Kent, Western Illinois and South Florida doing that damage against the Illinois defense. PSU’s offense is on a whole different level. In last week’s 25-19 loss to USF, the Illini defense allowed 626 yards however the Bulls shot themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers, 13 penalties, and 3 missed field goals. Needless to say, USF should have had many more points in that game. The Illinois offense has actually been OK this year. They’ve put up 34,31, and 19 points. Their starting QB AJ Bush should be back this week and even if he doesn’t return his back up Rivers had a decent game last week and was able to get a game under his belt. Either way, we don’t think the Illinois offense will have to do a whole lot for this game to push over the total. PSU has the capability of getting to 50 by themselves. We look for some 2nd half success from the IU offense when the game is most likely out of hand. While we expect Penn State to score a lot, we simply don’t trust laying 4+ TD’s with PSU here, and feel the OVER is the much better play.
|
09-20-18 |
Tulsa v. Temple -7 |
|
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 31 m |
Show
|
Temple Owls (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane at 7:30 PM ET Thursday - Temple off of the big win at Maryland while Tulsa continues to struggle with too many turnovers on offense. Some strong angles support a play on the Owls here. The Golden Hurricane have gone 1-9 ATS when they an underdog versus a team with a losing record that is off of a SU win by 10 or more points. That system fits perfectly with Temple just 1-2 SU on the season but off of a blowout win over the Terrapins. Also, the Owls are 10-0 ATS when they are facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tulsa was favored last week but lost at home versus Arkansas State so that system is also set up perfectly here. We also like the fact that Temple is on a 7-1 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane have a 1-6 ATS mark in games against teams with a losing record. Long-term the Owls are on a 30-13 ATS run and we expect them to continue their run as a "covering machine" with a very manageable line posted on this Thursday night home game. Taking the best four systems / angles above it combines for a 32-3 (91%) mark in favor of the home favorite. Lay the points with Temple
|
09-15-18 |
Washington -4.5 v. Utah |
Top |
21-7 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205
Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.
|
09-15-18 |
Ohio State v. TCU +13 |
|
40-28 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #204
This is a very skilled TCU offense and, as per usual, the Horned Frogs have a fantastic defense. We're getting line value here because everyone watched TCU "sleepwalk" through the first half of their game with SMU on Friday night last week. The betting public has seen that plus they've also seen Ohio State steamroll to big wins and ultra easy covers in the first two weeks of the season. The key though is that the Buckeyes were roughly a 5-touchdown favorite in each game and they are taking a major step up in level of opposing talent here. Of course Ohio State wants to win every game but one could certainly argue (and be correct in doing so) that this game means even more to TCU. This is absolutely the marquee game of their season outside of their Big 12 action and an upset of the Buckeyes would be huge for the Horned Frogs. We're not necessarily calling for the outright upset here but we certainly expect the Frogs to at least keep this one within 7 points. This game is at AT & T Stadium and of course the TCU campus is in nearby Fort Worth. Ohio State is off of a win over a Big Ten team and is only 6-11 ATS when off of a win in a conference game. TCU is a long-term 20-10 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Ryan Day is still filling in on gamedays for coach Urban Meyer (final game of 3-game suspension) and, in addition to all of the factors note above, we also like the edge of Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson over Day in this one on the sidelines Saturday. Grab the points with the hungry underdog in this Saturday evening match-up.
|
09-15-18 |
LSU +10.5 v. Auburn |
|
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #153
Revenge game for Auburn but, as is so often the case, the emphasis on revenge in the betting marketplace can lead to great value on the other side. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has been decided by 5 or less points. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings at Auburn have been decided by a TD or less. LSU has had success (other than one blowout loss) at Auburn in recent years and we like the value as this line has crept up into double digits this week. Of course Auburn is a very strong team this season but they very nearly lost to Washington in Week One. Certainly Washington is also a very talented team but the point is that the line on that game was roughly a "pick'em" and now this one is double digits even though Auburn is facing an SEC foe known for giving them a lot of trouble. LSU's defense has done a great job early this season including forcing turnovers and of course they were dominant in that season opening win over Miami. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, LSU has failed to cover just once in their last seven in that role! As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, Auburn is on a 2-8 ATS run. Additional big dog value here because last year Auburn blew a 20-point lead and lost to LSU. That means even if Auburn would jump in front in this game LSU has full confidence in their comeback abilities against this team and we expect their tough defense and solid ground game to keep this one close all the way. We'll gladly take the generous points being offered in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
|
09-15-18 |
Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh OVER 54 |
|
19-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Pittsburgh Panthers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET: Game #135
The Panthers are struggling to stop the run as Penn State ran all over them last week. The last thing a struggling run defense needs is to face the option attack of the Yellow Jackets. The rushing attack for Georgia Tech is averaging 429 rushing yards per game and the Jackets can take advantage of a Pitt defense still reeling from a deplorable second half performance versus the Nittany Lions last week. However, the good news for Pittsburgh fans is that the Panthers certainly should be able to get their offense back on track this week. The Yellow Jackets defense allowed 426 yards at South Florida last week. The last time the Panthers hosted the Jackets they put 37 points on nearly 400 yards of offense. GT gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns in last weeks loss and the Panthers also had special teams miscues in their game. That just adds to the big play potential of this game and the over is on a 10-5 run in Pittsburgh home games and also a perfect 3-0 when Georgia Tech is a road favorite. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this early Saturday ACC match-up.
|
09-14-18 |
Georgia State +28 v. Memphis |
|
22-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 37 m |
Show
|
Georgia State Panthers (+) over Memphis Tigers at 7 PM ET Friday - With Georgia State off of an embarrassing loss at NC State everyone is jumping on Memphis here. That said, value has been created with the big dog as, keep in mind, the Tigers didn't exactly look sharp in their one point loss as a touchdown favorite at Navy last week. In weekday match-ups, Memphis is on a poor 1-7-1 ATS slide as a home favorite and the Tigers certainly are a pricey home favorite in this one. Also, Georgia State is 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent that lost outright as a favorite in their prior game! The Panthers are also 6-0 ATS when they're facing a non-conference opponent that is off of a SU loss in their prior game. With this line up around 4 touchdowns the value is with the large underdog in this match-up that, just like the favorite, is looking for a better performance this week. Grab the big points with Georgia State
|
09-13-18 |
Old Dominion v. Charlotte OVER 40 |
|
25-28 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 2 m |
Show
|
OVER the total – Charlotte vs Old Dominion at 4 PM ET Thursday - The first numbers popping up on this total were in the mid-40s. Now it is down to a 40 as of Wednesday evening. Of course this game was moved up because of the hurricane approaching the Carolinas but that weather event is going to have have no impact on this Thursday game. With that said, the drop on this total likely had a lot to do with some poor performances on offense for these teams. The problem with that analogy is that it is not taking into account that both of these teams have had some major issues on defense. Charlotte has allowed nearly 300 passing yards in EACH of its first two games. Yes 49ers QB Evan Shirreffs is out but he wasn't even expected to be the starting QB for this team as of a few month ago. Also, Charlotte is sure to take advantage of an Old Dominion defense that is allowing 540 yards per game so far this season. The over is on a 19-8 run in Monarchs road games. Also, Old Dominion is on a 10-3 run to the over when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. Charlotte is 7-3 to the over in September games. OVER is the play.
|
09-08-18 |
Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State |
Top |
13-16 |
Loss |
-102 |
36 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393
While Arizona State did get a big win last week it came against a UTSA team that is one of the most inexperienced in the nation this season. That said it was not a huge surprise that the Sun Devils won big in coach Herm Edwards debut. However, now Arizona State faces a much tougher opponent and we were looking for an early season spot to fade coach Edwards and this is it. Edwards has to be one of the most baffling coaching hires for a Power 5 conference in recent memory. He had been out of coaching for so long and away from the college game for even longer. That said, beating the Roadrunners is one thing but trying to avoid a bad loss at the hands of a ranked team that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation is another matter entirely. Michigan State was not overly impressive last week but Utah State is a quality opponent. We also like the fact that the Spartans have a bye week on deck. That said, though a late night game in the southwestern US heat may not be the most appealing for MSU, the fact is they are geared up and ready to leave it all on the field knowing their Big Ten opener is still two weeks away. Michigan State will be able to establish the run and that will open things up for QB Brian Lewerke whom is the type of mobile QB that gives defenses fits. The Sun Devils defense lost most of their starters from last season and that is bad news against a Spartans offense that returned nearly all of its starters from last year. This is a big play on a team (MSU) with plenty of continuity from last season and a big play against a team (ASU) that is going through a coaching change and still trying to install new schemes and adjust to a lot of new players in key roles as well. A weak team like the Roadrunners was unable to expose any of that due to the talent gap between the teams but Michigan State is going to exploit all of these Arizona State weaknesses in a huge way and we get line value since the Spartans are on the road and that is (as of Friday morning) keeping this line below a 7. Lay the points and expect a dominating road win in this Saturday late night match-up.
|
09-08-18 |
Virginia +7 v. Indiana |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #369
Rain is expected in Bloomington all day Saturday and particularly through the evening hours. We expect these conditions to maximize the importance of the ground game in this match-up and that gives a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Not only did Indiana have one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation last season, Virginia has a true dual-threat QB that will give the Hoosiers run defense some major problems Saturday. Signal-caller Bryce Perkins is the Cavs key weapon in this game as he can beat defenses with his legs and that was evident in Virginia's win over Richmond Saturday. Sure the Spiders are not a powerhouse football team but the Cavs were favored by 2 touchdowns and won by 4 TDs in a dominating effort that saw Perkins talents on full display. Though Indiana is also off of a week 1 win, the Hoosiers allowed 170 rushing yards in their win while the Cavs allowed just 34 yards on the ground! Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his 3rd season now with Virginia and that is the year when a coach tends to be at the "tipping point" with a program where he gets them over the hump and we feel that is the case with this current Cavs team. In terms of technical support here, Indiana is on a 4-9 ATS run in home games while Virginia is on a 6-3 ATS run in September games under Mendenhall. We'll gladly take the available points as a road upset is likely in this Saturday evening match-up.
|
09-08-18 |
Baylor -15 v. UTSA |
|
37-20 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 7 ET: Game #349
Last season the Bears got embarrassed by losing at home to UTSA in a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits. Now it is time for payback. Baylor is stronger this season while the Roadrunners are much weaker and, in fact, are one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation coming into this season. That inexperienced had a lot to do with the Roadrunners getting blasted by 42 points last week in a game in which they were only a 17 point underdog. Things won't get any easier in this week as, even though UTSA is at home, they are hosting a Texas team that is happy to make the trip down to San Antonio for this road game. In fact you can expect plenty of Baylor fans to be in attendance for this game and this looks like a very down season for Roadrunners football after they lost nearly their entire offensive unit from last season. Also, the defensive was heavily impacted by graduation losses plus they have a new defensive coordinator as their prior one was grabbed by Alabama! The Runners will get better as the season goes on but lack of experience and all kinds of adjustments early in the season for this team on both sides of the ball means they don't have the cohesion to compete with a Power 5 team like Baylor that has revenge on its minds! The Roadrunners defense was shredded last week (including on the ground) and the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards last week plus threw for over 300. They are set at QB with both Brewer and McClendon both being very capable QBs. Baylor is 11-3 ATS in road games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points. UTSA is 1-4 ATS in home games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Lay the points and expect a road rout in this Saturday evening match-up.
|
09-08-18 |
Buffalo +4.5 v. Temple |
|
36-29 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Buffalo Bulls (+) over Temple Owls, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #345
Many will be looking for a bounce back from Temple this week. But this is an Owls team that didn't just lose as a double digit favorite last week, they actually got beaten much worse than what the scoreboard showed. Temple lost by 2 points points to Villanova but it could (should!) of been much worse as the Wildcats outgained the Owls by 154 yards in that game! Though the most recent meeting was 2011 you can bet that the Bulls are aware of their recent history as they've lost the last two match-ups by a combined score of 76 to 0. Of course that was before Lance Leipold was the head coach at Buffalo. In fact, at that time he was still in the midst of a run that saw him win 5 championships with UW-Whitewater's Division III program. He is a fantastic coach that, now in his 4th season with the Bulls, has this Buffalo team poised to be a bowl team this year. That likely would have happened last season (6-6 year) were it not for QB injuries. The Bulls 6 losses last season came by a total of just 29 points and we like the value of the points being offered here in a game in which Buffalo (returning a lot of key experience) has a great shot at the outright upset on the road. Temple returned only 5 starters on each side of the ball and that showed in their loss to Villanova. Now they face a Bulls team that is confident after a blowout win in week one and is ready now for a signature road win. The Owls are on a 6-15 ATS run in games against MAC foes. Look for the Bulls to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the points with the road dog in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-07-18 |
TCU v. SMU +23 |
|
42-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over TCU Horned Frogs, Friday at 8 ET: Game #302
The Horned Frogs are over-priced here plain and simple. The markets are over-adjusted here because TCU won huge in week 1 while SMU got thoroughly embarrassed in week 1. Keep in mind the Frogs played Southern University. Also, even though the Mustangs got crushed by a North Texas team that is on the rise, SMU did score well in the 4th quarter and it is that type of late game push that is likely to occur again here should TCU get a big lead. That is because the Horned Frogs have a huge game against Ohio State on deck. There is no doubt they're peeking ahead to the match-up. Also note that TCU is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points while SMU was on a 7-2 ATS run in September games prior to the embarrassing loss to the Mean Green. They will make up for it here at home against their Dallas rivals! We're calling for the Mustangs to stay well within the three touchdown outlay here and to lose this one by no more than a range of 14 to 17 points! Grab the big points with SMU Friday evening
|
09-03-18 |
Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55 |
|
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 39 m |
Show
|
9* UNDER the total – Florida State vs Virginia Tech at 8 PM ET - When the total was first posted on this one it was a 50. There has been a huge push toward the over because of the change in system that Florida State's offense will display under new head coach Willie Taggart. However, lets not forget this is the first game of the season, Noles QB Deondre Francois missed nearly all of last season, and the Hokies certainly have a respectable defense. Certainly Virginia Tech lost some key players from last year's defense but this now year 3 with Justin Fuente at the helm and he has assembled plenty of talent with the Hokies. That said, this defense has reloaded and certainly is still extremely strong in the trenches. Florida State, as per usual, has plenty of talent and athleticism on defense and these early-season games between some of the nation's best teams have proven again this season to be low-scoring. Comparable match-ups Saturday in terms of ranked foes battling were Washington-Auburn and Michigan-Notre Dame and both of those games resulted in unders. An average of just 39 points was scored in those two contests. While we could see a little more than that here, we've also got more to work with here with the big total posted on this one. Yes, the Noles want to be more up-tempo and aggressive this season but this isn't an easy defense against which to have your first test of the season. As for the Hokies offense, they are making it a point to establish the run more effectively this season. Look for that to be a point of emphasis here and, of course, that is a big help to an under. The under is 6-1 when Florida State is a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The under is a perfect 3-0 under coach Fuente when Virginia Tech is an underdog in a range of 2 to 10 points. Look for the Hokies defense to perform well under long-time defensive coordinator once again here in this season opener. Every time Virginia Tech loses a lot of starters on defense the thought is they will struggle but most recently this happened in 2014 (5 starters back) and the Hokies allowed an average of only 20 points per game. They'll be ready to go here and this game proves to be lower-scoring than the markets are anticipating. UNDER is the play.
|
09-02-18 |
Miami-FL v. LSU UNDER 48 |
|
17-33 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
9* UNDER the total – LSU vs Miami @ AT & T Stadium, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - We expect both defenses to dominate this game. The Hurricanes QB struggles were evident as they struggled in the way they closed out last season. The Tigers QB position also has to be considered no better than a question mark considering they are handing the ball to Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow. LSU's strength, as per usual, is expected to be their defense. Miami also is very strong on that side of the ball again this season and returns a ton of talent from last year's unit. The line on this game has been hanging around Miami at -3. The last 4 times the Hurricanes have played in a game with a line between -3 and +3, all 4 stayed under. The last 6 times the Tigers have been in that same line range, all 6 stayed under. That is a combined 10-0 mark of unders and both coaches are likely to be very conservative on offense and rely on their defenses to win this big early season match-up. With consideration to all of the above factors we envision this being a field position, defensive type battle and UNDER is the play.
|
09-01-18 |
Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 27 m |
Show
|
10* UNDER the total – Michigan @ Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET We expect both defenses to dominate this game. Michigan had one of the best defenses in the nation last year allowing their opponents just 271 YPG (3rd nationally). The Wolverines held 9 of their 13 opponents last year to 20 points or less. They return nearly everyone on defense including 9 starters and 17 of their top 20 tacklers. Our word from Ann Arbor is their defensive line has been absolutely dominant in practice and we expect them to be the best unit on the field on Saturday. They’ll be facing a Notre Dame offense that likes to run and simply isn’t very good at throwing the football. Irish starting QB Wimbush struggle with accuracy last year hitting under 50% of his pass attempts and those struggles have continued in practice this year per our reports. Notre Dame also had to replace 3 of their 5 starting offensively lineman so they’ll have big problems with this Michigan defense. Offensively, Michigan likes to run the ball more often than not as well. They are breaking in a new QB in Shea Patterson who had some success at Ole Miss but is still learning the ropes with his new offense. Patterson will now be without one of his top wideouts as starter Tarik Black injured his foot and won’t be playing in this game. Expect Harbaugh to be conservative with his offense and lean heavily on his defense in this game. We like the Irish defense, with 9 starters back, much better than their offense going into the season. They also held 9 of their 13 opponents to 20 points or less last season and return 9 of their top 11 tacklers. We envision this being a field position, defensive type battle and UNDER is the play.
|
09-01-18 |
North Carolina v. California -7 |
|
17-24 |
Push |
0 |
50 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #204
Though this is a revenge game for North Carolina, that is actually helping with the line value on this game. As of Thursday afternoon this line is being held right around a -7 on California and the fact is that the line should be much higher. While the Golden Bears return 17 starters and 56 lettermen from last year's team, the Tar Heels return only 12 starters and 10 fewer lettermen plus North Carolina has about a dozen players suspended for this game. On top of all that, this is the longest road trip (2,808 miles) in the history of the football program at UNC. The Tar Heels have had slow starts at the betting window as they've gone 3-6 ATS in September games the past two seasons. On the other side of the field, the Bears are known for dominating their home openers. They have won 14 of their last 16 and the average margin per win has been over 30 points. Also, the Bears do enter this game having gone 8-4 ATS in home games the past two seasons. We also like the fact that Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive-minded head coach and now in his second season with the Golden Bears. This is a team that will continue to show more and more improvement on that side of that ball as they are now in their 2nd year with Wilcox at the helm. On the other side of the ball the unit on offense returns 10 starters for this season and their offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin, now in his 2nd season working together with Wilcox here, had previously led Eastern Washington to consistently ranking among the top scoring teams in the FCS ranks. This Cal team is built well (and coached well) on both sides of the ball and QB Ross Bowers picked apart the UNC defense for over 350 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in last year's match-up. We expect similar results this season. Lay the points as a home blowout is likely in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-01-18 |
Texas -13.5 v. Maryland |
|
29-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (-) over Maryland Terrapins, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #173
Not only did Maryland ruin the Longhorns season opener last year, it also was coach Tom Herman's first game as the head coach of Texas. Without a shadow of doubt, coach Herman and his troops have been getting geared up for this revenge game all summer long. Not only did Texas show improvement in their first season under Herman (went from 5 wins to 7), they are poised to show significant improvement in year two. The cycle trending upward is a big plus for the Longhorns while the Terrapins most definitely are at the other end of the spectrum. With an interim head coach (Matt Canada) due to DJ Durkin being put on paid administrative leave, the Terps have been having trouble with focus after the death of one of their teammates this summer and the continued investigation into the training programs under Durkin. Maryland already had concerns heading into this season as their defense returned only 4 starters from last year's team. This is a Terrapins team that wrapped up last season by losing 7 of their last 8 games. Maryland averaged scoring only 13 points per game in those 7 losses. If you can't score points it is hard to win and this is especially true when you have a defense that was one of the worst in the nation as they allowed 37 points per game last season. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Also, though this line is near the two TD mark, note that the Terrapins are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a double digit underdog! This one gets ugly quick and, with last year's result as extra motivation, coach Herman and company won't take their foot off of the gas in this one. Lay the big points with the revenge-minded road favorite in this very early Saturday match-up.
|
08-31-18 |
San Diego State +14 v. Stanford |
|
10-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
55 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego State Aztecs (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Friday at 9 ET: Game #149
As we have mentioned many times before, revenge is certainly an angle that can be over-used and/or improperly used. This certainly appears to be one of those cases. This line is over-inflated because Stanford lost at San Diego State last season. The Cardinal were a TD road favorite and lost by 3 points on a late TD score by the Aztecs. However, the game shouldn't have even been that close as San Diego State held a commanding edge in time of possession and yardage in the game. Now, because Stanford is at home and playing with revenge, the Cardinal are a two TD favorite here. The fact is that Rocky Long's team is a very dangerous underdog and is not being given the respect they should be by the betting markets. Adding to the value here is that the Cardinal have their Pac 12 opener (and also another revenge game) on deck against USC. The Trojans, in fact, handed Stanford their first loss of the year last season and the Cardinal have not forgotten that and can't help but peeking ahead a bit to next week's big showdown. While the Aztecs are a "group of 5" team and not a "power 5" team in terms of their home conference, this is still a true high-quality football program. San Diego has gone to a bowl now in 8 straight seasons (including 7 in a row under coach Long) and Long has a reputation as being a "cash cow" at the betting windows as an underdog. As for Stanford, there are some ugly ATS trends in play here. When playing in non-conference action and installed as a favorite of less than 30 points, the Cardinal are 1-7 ATS. Also, Stanford is 0-7 ATS when when they are a home favorite playing with revenge. The Aztecs went 4-0 ATS in non-conference action last season and we have combined ATS edges of 18-1 (95%) working in our favor for this one. We'll take it as, even if the Cardinal do manage to build a sizable lead they absolutely could get caught then looking ahead to the upcoming revenging showdown with USC. However, our prediction is that the Aztecs don't even need the backdoor here as they cover this one from start to finish! Grab the big points with the under-valued road dog in this one in late night Friday action.
|
08-30-18 |
Northwestern v. Purdue -113 |
|
31-27 |
Loss |
-113 |
30 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Northwestern Wildcats, Thursday at 8 ET: Game #136
From 2011 to 2013 (a span of 3 seasons) these teams did not meet. 2010 is the last season Purdue beat Northwestern. From 2014 to 2017 these teams met all 4 seasons and the Wildcats got the better of the Boilermakers in all 4 meetings. Revenge is certainly an angle that can be over-used and/or improperly used. However in this specific case, with a home opener and quadruple revenge in play and significant line movement toward the road team, we have excellent line value with this avenging home team. Many are looking at the return of QB Clayton Thorson as a big reason for backing the Wildcats here but just how strong will he truly be right out of the gate and coming back from such a huge injury? Also, many are looking at the fact that Purdue is replacing significant player losses on defense. However, keep in mind that much of the Boilermakers improvement on that side of the ball last season had to do with coaching not personnel! In the betting markets coaching tends to be under-valued but it truly is a significant part of the equation and that includes offensive and defensive coordinators too. We like Purdue in this home opener where they are truly being under-valued and where there is no shortage of motivation in this Big Ten lid-lifter on the true "opening night" of the 2018 College Football season. There has been so much line movement here that you can actually (as of Wednesday afternoon) get Purdue on the money line at a pick'em price which is certainly what we recommend as we expect the Boilermakers to open up the season with a home win. Grab the hungry home team in this one Thursday evening.
|
08-25-18 |
Hawaii +14.5 v. Colorado State |
|
43-34 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) over Colorado State Rams, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #293
The Rams are over-priced here plain and simple. The markets are over-adjusted here because Colorado State certainly has had Hawaii's number in recent meetings. The key to the value here is that both teams are replacing a lot of key personnel but the Rams are truly one of the least experienced teams in the nation. Will they still win this game at home? Of course we do expect that. But the fact is that Hawaii's new offensive schemes (quick pace "run and shoot" style) could give an inexperienced defense a lot of headaches. We feel the Warriors score plenty here and that keeps them well within the inflated number here. In terms of technical angles, Hawaii has failed to cover only twice in their last seven road games that had a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Warriors are a long-term 6-1 ATS in August games. Also, Colorado State has their annual rivalry game with Colorado coming up next week. When a big favorite has a big game on deck there is always a tendency to start peeking ahead to that match-up in the 2nd half of a game and that's when leads get whittled away. We're calling for Hawaii to stay well within the two touchdown outlay here and to lose this one by single digits! Grab the big points with Hawaii Saturday evening.
|
01-08-18 |
Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46 |
Top |
26-23 |
Loss |
-120 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 46 National Championship Game, 8 PM ET - When we crunch the numbers on this game with our predictive Math Model it projects out a total of 38 points being scored. Vegas had this game as low as 44 points but it has now been bet up to 45.5 which makes the key numbers of both 44 and 45 on totals now winning numbers. That move by the oddsmakers gives us the value we needed to make this wager. Both of these teams have been fantastic on defense this season and Georgia's crazy high-scoring win over Oklahoma last week doesn't change the fact that this is an SEC battle in the trenches! Georgia has allowed just 15.7 PPG on the season which ranks them among the best in the Nation and Alabama has done even better having allowed only 11.1 PPG this season. The Bulldogs were able to pile up yardage against a porous Sooners defense but they won't find those same holes against a Crimson Tide defense that just held Clemson under 200 total yards of offense in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama will have problems scoring here too with an offense that averaged only 20.7 PPG in their three games as a single digit favorite this season. The point is that, when challenged (games against Clemson, Auburn, and Florida State), the mighty Tide weren't so mighty on offense. Alabama averaged only 281.3 yards per game in those 3 match-ups. Now the Crimson Tide face a Georgia defense that allowed less than 285 yards in 11 of their 13 games prior to the shootout with OU last week. With an all-SEC Championship final and a game very likely to be a dogfight we like a lower scoring game and side with the UNDER!
|
01-01-18 |
Central Florida v. Auburn -10 |
|
34-27 |
Loss |
-109 |
48 h 45 m |
Show
|
#268 ASA 9* PLAY ON Auburn (-) over Central Florida, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET – PEACH BOWL To the betting masses, undefeated Central Florida (12-0) will look attractive as a big dog against an Auburn team that finished the season 10-3. However, the Tigers are offering substantial value here because the schedule that Auburn faced was much tougher than what the Golden Knights faced. There really is no comparison in terms of level of opposition. Also, even with the much softer schedule, UCF allowed 25.2 points and 428.5 yards per game. Auburn's defense, despite facing tough opposition in the SEC, allowed only 17.3 points and 312.8 yards per game. Look for the Tigers defense to key this victory. Another big edge here for Auburn is in coaching. Central Florida's Frost and his assistants are staying on board for this bowl game but the fact is that there, of course, is significant distraction here as Frost has taken the Nebraska job. As for Auburn's Gus Malzahn, he just signed a 7-year contract extension so the Tigers are certainly not dealing with the distractions that the Golden Knights have been leading into this game. Above we referenced strength of schedule and it is a real factor here as Central Florida is only 4-8 SU (and 3-8 ATS) when facing teams with a winning record the past 2+ seasons! Auburn is 4-2 SU against teams with a winning record this season. Also, when playing with extra rest (ex. off of a bye week), Auburn is 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. The Tigers are the better team across the board and UCF is distracted. We like Auburn to win this game in an absolute rout and we will lay the big points.
|
01-01-18 |
South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 |
Top |
26-19 |
Loss |
-100 |
46 h 42 m |
Show
|
#266 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over South Carolina, Monday at 12:00 PM ET We feel this is a defense vs offense mismatch in favor of the Wolverines. The Gamecocks offense is not good. They rank 107th nationally in total offense averaging only 341 YPG. The two best defenses they played this year (Clemson & Georgia) both completely shut this team down. In those two games the Gamecocks scored just 10 points in each game and averaged only 237 total YPG in those two games. Now they face a Michigan defense that is every bit as good as those two stop units as they rank 3rd nationally in total defense allowing only 268 YPG. Only 3 teams all season long scored more than 20 points vs Michigan and those were the 3 best teams in the Big Ten (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin). We expect South Carolina to struggle big time offensively here. The Michigan offense had their issues this year but when they had Peters at QB they were pretty good as they scored 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games he started. He’s back and ready to go which really gives a boost to Michigan’s offense. This gives Michigan an advantage on BOTH sides of the ball in this game. We’ve been anti South Carolina all season long as this is a team that seem to get a bit lucky in some of their wins with defensive and special teams scores. In fact, this team is 8-4 but they were outgained by nearly 40 YPG on the season. The Big Ten has been very successful in this bowl season as of this writing (Saturday afternoon) and we look for that to continue. Michigan is the play.
|
12-30-17 |
Wisconsin -4.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
34-24 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 28 m |
Show
|
#263 ASA 9* PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Miami, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET – ORANGE BOWL The Hurricanes are likely to struggle to move the ball in this match-up. The Badgers are the much better team defensively as they allowed only 253.2 yards per game this season while the Canes allowed 359.8 yards per game this season. Of particular concern for Miami is that Wisconsin held opponents to only 92.6 rushing yards per game and 3 yards per carry. The Hurricanes passing attack was dismal in the latter half of the season as they averaged only 170.8 passing yards per game in their final 5 games. With yards tough to come by on the ground and with an aerial attack that was held to 137 yards or less in 2 of their last 4 games, frustration could set in early for Miami offense. After winning 10 in a row to start the season but then being outscored by a combined 62 to 17 in back to back losses to end the season, the Canes have been on an emotional roller coaster. Rock steady Wisconsin will head to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens with plenty of fan support in tow as Badger fans are known for traveling very well...especially in December with a chance to enjoy the warmth of Florida. Wisconsin is on an 11-3 ATS run in road games and a perfect 10-0 when those road games have a total set between 42.5 and 49 points as this one does. The Badgers are also on a 6-0 ATS run in games played on grass. Prior to their loss to Ohio State, the Badgers had not only won all 12 games this season, each of the dozen victories came by at least 8 points! With this line moving lower heading toward Saturday, we are happy to grab the small number. Badgers head coach Chryst has a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in bowl games (including his time at Pitt) while the Hurricanes enter this match-up on a 2-7 run straight-up and ATS in bowl games! We like Wisconsin to win this game big and will lay the small points.
|
12-30-17 |
Iowa State +4.5 v. Memphis |
Top |
21-20 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* PLAY ON IOWA STATE +4.5 over Memphis, Liberty Bowl, Saturday Dec 30th @ 12:30 PM ET – This was one game we immediately circled when the lines came out and feel the better team is getting points here. Memphis is basically playing a home game here but is that a huge benefit for a Bowl team? Isn't it more fun, exciting and less distracting for the players to travel to someplace new as a reward for qualifying for a Bowl? In this situation we don't feel the home field will hold the advantages it normally does for Memphis. A big factor in handicapping Bowl games is knowing if a team is properly motivated to be there and one thing we know for sure, Iowa State will be ready here. The Cyclones have a hot-shot young coach in Matt Campbell who is going to be on the short list for some big programs in the future. Campbell is a fantastic motivator and tactician and the team loves playing for him. This will be the Cyclones first Bowl game since 2012 so we know they'll be excited to be here. Campbell mentioned earlier this week many key players were was banged up at the end of the season but they now look like they did in early September health wise. That’s bad news for Memphis. The Tigers also has a great young coach in Mike Norvell who guided them to the Boca Raton Bowl last year, a loss to Western Kentucky. Memphis has a fast paced, high octane offense that averaged 47 PPG but their offensive numbers are very misleading. The Tigers faced some of the worst defensive teams in college football as 7 of their opponents ranked 82nd or worse in defensive efficiency ratings, 5 of which were 103rd or worse. In fact, the combined DEFF ratings of all the teams they faced was 81st so they should have great offensive numbers. The defense Memphis will face here has been battle tested and is easily the best they’ve faced this season. The Cyclones finished 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (behind only TCU) and they won’t be fazed by the Tigers offense in this one as they have already faced more potent offenses that this one including Oklahoma (1st in the nation in total offense) and Oklahoma State (2nd in the nation in total offense). Despite facing one of the toughest offensive schedules in the nation, the ISU defense still ranks 31st nationally in DEFF. ISU faced 6 teams that rank in the top 50 in the nation in total offense (4 in the top 20) and won't be 'over their heads' against Memphis. The Cyclones played 7 teams in the top 45 according to Sagarin’s ratings while Memphis played just one, Central Florida, who beat the Tigers twice. ISU has played the 24th toughest schedule while Memphis has played the 86th. Memphis makes a living by turning teams over and that won't happen here as Iowa State has not lost a fumble all season long and they've only thrown 2 INT's in their previous four games. The Clones are no slouch on offense as they averaged 30 PPG this season against the MUCH tougher schedule. They should have a field day here facing a Memphis defense that rates 120th nationally, the worst defense ISU has faced all season long. Not only that, we consider the Tiger defense worse than the actual stats tell due to the fact they played such an easy schedule this season. Memphis is 7-0 SU at home this year but those wins have come against teams with a 29-39 SU record. It's obvious the oddsmakers continue to undervalue Iowa State as they are on a 6-0 ATS run as a dog and 10-1-1 ATS overall this season. They also have some added motivation here as ISU is the Power 5 team in this game yet they are the underdogs. They will be out to prove a point here and let’s not forget this is a very talented team that beat both Oklahoma (on the road) and TCU, the two teams who met in the Big 12 Championship game. We like the Cyclones to win outright!
|
12-29-17 |
USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY OVER 64.5 USC vs Ohio State, 8:30PM ET Cotton Bowl - The metrics say the OVER is worth a small wager today as the numbers suggest 70 or more points in this one. The Buckeyes play faster and average 2.61 plays per minute which is 19th fastest in college football. USC isn't quite as fast, 2.40 PPM which is still in the top half of college football (53rd). Both teams are VERY efficient offensively as the Trojans rank 10th in the country while the Buckeyes are 2nd. Ohio State has the 12th best yards per point offense at 12.26YPPT and score a point in 49.40 percent of their possessions (5th best in CFB). They score a TD on 40.30 percent of their possession (4th). Ohio State averaged 42PPG which was also 5th in the nation. USC doesn't have quite those numbers but they are 35th in percentage of possession with a point and 27th in TD percentage per possession. The Trojans averaged 35PPG which was 24th nationally. Each offense has big play ability too which is proven by their 24th and 30th ranked explosive offensive plays. Granted Ohio State has some great defensive numbers but they didn't play many fast paced, explosive offenses in the Big Ten. The best offenses they faced, Penn State and Oklahoma scored 38 and 31 points against them. USC gives up 26PPG on the year and are prone to big plays (80th in nation) and penalties (103rd). The numbers say this is going to be a shootout! BET OVER!
|
12-29-17 |
NC State v. Arizona State OVER 59 |
|
52-31 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON: OVER 59 NC State vs Arizona State, Sun Bowl Friday, 3 PM ET - We expect a shootout here with both offenses putting up plenty of points for an easy Over. Both teams are above average in terms of pace of play and each averages right around 31PPG. NC State is 43rd in points per possession while ASU is 44th and their percentage of possession that end in a TD are 37th (NC St) and 47th (ASU). They both throw the football extremely efficient as the Wolfpack have the 20th best passing completion percentage in college football while the Sun Devils are 22nd. NC State throws for 270 yards per game while ASU throws for 248. In overall efficiency ratings the Wolfpack rank 26th overall versus Arizona State who is 37th. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of total rushing yards per game but NC State does it better at 4.7YPC compared to 4.1YPC for Arizona State. Defensively NC State has some impressive statistics but to be honest they are somewhat misleading based on their strength of schedule. The Wolfpack faced 7 teams this year that were 52nd or worse in offensive efficiency ratings and 4 that were 30th or better. In the four games against good offenses that are similar to ASU they allowed 30, 38, 35 and 25 points for an average of 32PPG, ironically right around ASU's scoring average this year. In their other seven games the Wolfpack allowed just 22PPG which makes their season numbers much better than they are. The Sun Devils come into this game having scored 37 or more points in four straight games and 40+ in 3 of four. Arizona State's defense has allowed some major points this year including 52 to Texas Tech back in week #3. The Sun Devils have allowed 30 or more points in 9 of their twelve games this season. Based on our math model projections this game should end with 68 or more total points. BET OVER!
|
12-29-17 |
Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 |
|
52-55 |
Push |
0 |
20 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON: Wake Forest (-) vs Texas A & M, Belk Bowl Friday, 1 PM ET - The Aggies finished the season in ugly fashion and now the coaching situation of course is a mess for the bowl game following the firing of head coach Sumlin. His departure was certainly expected and should lead to a brighter future for the Aggies but it certainly won't help them in this match-up with Wake Forest. While Texas A & M wrapped up the season with 3 losses in their last 5 games, the Demon Deacons won 2 of their last 3. Wake Forest was a covering machine as they went 8-3-1 ATS on the year. The Aggies late season slump is unlikely to reverse itself here. Texas A & M is 2-8 ATS when off of a loss versus an SEC foe. The Aggies are also 0-5 SU and ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks between games. The Demon Deacons are a long-term 9-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field. The location here (in Charlotte, NC certainly does favor Wake Forest though. Look for the Demon Deacons to control the ground game in this one as they have averaged only 90 rushing yards per game their last 7 games! Wake Forest averaged 184.2 rushing yards per game on the season! This season, on 4 different occasions. the Demon Deacons put up the most yards their opponent allowed all season! As you can see, the Demon Deacons offense can be quite dynamic and the Aggies are truly trudging into this bowl game. The Aggies went 1-5 SU versus bowl teams this season while the Demon Deacons went 5-4 SU (and 6-2-1 ATS) against bowl teams this season. This one has the makings of a blowout and we'll gladly lay the small points. Bet Wake Forest!
|
12-28-17 |
Michigan State -120 v. Washington State |
|
42-17 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 7 m |
Show
|
#277 ASA 9* PLAY ON Michigan State (-) over Washington State, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – HOLIDAY BOWL - This line opened with Wazzou as a 3 point favorite and we immediately felt the wrong team was favored. Big bettors in Vegas agreed with us as this line moved to pick-em and then pushed to MSU as a small favorite. The move is correct here. Michigan State is the better team and will win this game by more than a TD. Sparty’s defense is among the best in the nation ranking 5th in run defense and 12th in pass efficiency defense. They should completely shut down a WSU rushing attack that averages only 71 YPG forcing the Cougs to be one dimensional on offense. While Washington State is a solid passing team, MSU’s top notch pass defenders will know what’s coming. On top of that, The Cougars will be without their top 2 WR’s in this game (Martin & Johnson-Mack) who combined for 1400 yards receiving and 14 TD’s as they have been booted off the team. This passing offense needs to play to click. Their timing has been thrown off each of the last two seasons when going a month without playing heading into a bowl game. Last year they scored just 12 points vs Minnesota and (averaged 38 PPG during regular season) and the year before the put up just 20 (averaged 33 PPG during regular season) facing Miami FL. The only defense Washington State faced this year that was comparable to Michigan State was Washington (Washington ranked 5th in total defense / Michigan State ranked 9th). In that game Wazzou scored just 14 points on only 345 total yards. Sparty’s offense should be much more diverse in this game. They should be able to establish the run vs a WSU defense that ranked 44th nationally vs the run allowing nearly 150 YPG and will be without their top defensive lineman has he is suspended for the first half. MSU QB Lewerke had a very good year (17 TD’s & just 6 interceptions) and is a threat with his legs as well (2nd leading rusher for Spartans). MSU is excited to be back in a bowl game after missing out on the post-season last year, just one season after making college football’s final 4. They lost just 3 games this season and all 3 were vs top notch teams in Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Northwestern (combined 29-8 record). The Cougs were in this bowl last year so maybe not as much excitement. Add that to the fact they were “this close” to bigger things as they were playing in their season finale vs Washington for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game but were crushed by the Huskies. We highly doubt Wazzou is more excited to be playing in this game than than Michigan State. Head coach Mike Leach has now lost 3 of his last 4 bowl games including last year when they played an average Minnesota team in disarray (Gophs considered boycotting their bowl game) and still lost 17-12. We see Michigan State controlling the majority of this game and picking up a win and cover.
|
12-28-17 |
Stanford v. TCU OVER 48.5 |
|
37-39 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA FREE PICK: We will PLAY OVER 49 in the TCU versus Stanford game. Alamo Bowl, Thursday 9PM ET - There are some interesting metrics here that suggest a higher scoring game between these two teams on Thursday evening. Both teams check in with offensive units that rank 44th or higher in yards per play and 22nd or better in terms of yards per point. Their percentage of possessions with points being scored is top 50 and percentage of possessions that end with a TD are 38th and 28th. The Horned Frogs average 34 points per game while the Cardinal average 39. Granted, TCU has a fantastic defense and Stanford is good on that side of the football but the 'big play' probability for both offenses negate a lot of those numbers. College games averaged 46 points per game this year and the total on this game is set just a few points higher than that. Easy bet on the OVER! Yes, we like this FREE PICK today but our biggest investments on the day come in two other wagers. Get both here and treat yourself to a 2-0 day!
|
12-28-17 |
Stanford v. TCU -3 |
Top |
37-39 |
Loss |
-109 |
28 h 6 m |
Show
|
#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue.
|
12-27-17 |
Missouri v. Texas +3 |
|
16-33 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 27 m |
Show
|
#240 ASA 9* PLAY ON Texas (+) over Missouri, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET – TEXAS BOWL Missouri comes in hot winning their final 6 games of the season. However, we also feel that makes them a bit overrated coming into this game as keep in mind those 6 wins came against ZERO teams going to bowl games. Not one winning team in the bunch and the combined record of those 6 teams Mizzou topped to end the season was 23-48! In fact, the Tigers were 0-5 this year vs teams that made it to bowl games this season. Their offense has been humming late in the season vs a number of poor defensive units, however they lost their play caller as OC Heupel took the head job at UCF and will not be with the Tigers for this bowl game. This is definitely a situation where the hot team may not be so hot after taking a closer look. This game is being played in Houston which heavily favors the Texas Longhorns. Just a 160 mile trip for the Longhorn fans as they’ll have a huge edge when it comes to the crowd. Texas has plenty of motivation here as a win gives them a winning season and a loss drops them below .500. They are also coming off a disappointing finale, a game in which they led Texas Tech by 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost 27-23. Their head coach Tom Herman has been a fantastic underdog coming in at 15-1 ATS in that role dating back to when he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and then head coach at Houston before taking over the Texas program. The Horns have the much better overall defense in this match up and rank 7th nationally in rush defense. Also, while Mizzou didn’t beat a bowl team the entire season as we mentioned, Texas beat 3 (Iowa State, West Virginia, and Kansas State) and played to the wire with others including losing by 3 vs USC, 5 vs Oklahoma and in OT vs Oklahoma State. We like Texas to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points.
|
12-27-17 |
Boston College v. Iowa -135 |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 54 m |
Show
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#238 ASA 9* PLAY ON Iowa (-) over Boston College, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET – PINSTRIPE BOWL Boston College comes in hot at the betting window covering their final 9 games of the season. However, we also feel that makes them a bit overrated coming into this game as, keep in mind, the only straight up win that the Eagles have had over a non-MAC team that finished the regular season with a winning record was a tight 3-point win over Louisville. Also, the only straight up wins that Boston College has had since October were against a pair of teams with a combined record of 7-17! The Hawkeyes allowed 24 points or less in 10 of their 12 games this season. In fact, in those 10 games Iowa allowed an average of only 16 points per game. Iowa's schedule was just as tough as the Eagles and the Hawkeyes not only rate the defensive edge here, they also have a big special teams edge. Special teams play certainly can be a factor in games projected to be decided by a single possession (line on this game only around a field goal). Iowa's offense got a big boost with a strong effort in their regular season finale as they rolled Nebraska 55-14. Not only did the Hawkeyes put up 505 yards in that game, they also blasted Ohio State for 55 points and 487 yards just 3 weeks prior. The point is that when Iowa comes to play they are certainly capable of an impressive all-around performance and with head coach Ferentz having lost each of his last 5 bowl appearances straight up, you know he's going to have the troops ready here! They will take advantage of an easier match-up than they've often had in recent bowl appearances and certainly Iowa is favored with good reason here! Also noteworthy is that in games with a line ranging from +3 to -3, the Hawkeyes have failed to cover only twice in their last 7 games while the Eagles only have 2 ATS wins in their 7 games played with a line that range! We like Iowa to win this game handily so we’ll gladly lay the small points or, if you have access to the money line, the price is so low that is an even better option!
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12-26-17 |
Kansas State v. UCLA UNDER 62 |
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35-17 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 30 m |
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We will play UNDER 62 Kansas State vs UCLA, Cactus Bowl, Dec 26th 9PM ET - K-State head coach Bill Snyder has been around for awhile and has figured out that to be successful, you have to exploit your opponents weakness. The Bruins weakness is their rush defense that is one of the WORST in all of college football. UCLA is 129th (out of 130) schools in rushing yards allowed per game at 283 and 126th in rushing yards per attempt at 5.7. The Wildcats are 44th in rushing attempts per game at 40 and 40th in rushing yards per game at 187RYPG. What's significant about that is the more teams run the football the less clock stoppage there is. Kansas State is also 125th in college football in tempo and prefer to play slow. UCLA has a potent offense, ranking 17th in total yards per game and they averaged 34PPG which was 25th. But they were 50th in yards per point offense which is a huge negative here. The Bruins offense is very dependent on their quarterback Josh Rosen, who as of this writing, has not been cleared to play because of a concussion. Why would he jeopardize his multi-million dollar NFL contract for a meaningless Bowl game? Backup QB Modster has thrown for just 376 yards in three games this season. Kansas State has some poor overall defensive statistics but the Big 12 is loaded with some of the best offensive teams in the country (Okie State 2nd, Oklahoma 1st, Texas Tech 19th and West Virginia 14th) so those numbers are skewed. Kansas State controls the pace here and it leads to a lower scoring game.
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12-26-17 |
Northern Illinois +6 v. Duke |
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14-36 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 15 m |
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#231 ASA 3* PLAY ON Northern Illinois (+) over Duke, Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET – QUICK LANE BOWL This line was around as low as a 2.5 when bowl odds were first released. Now the line is as high as a 6 in some spots as of gameday morning. The fact is that the Huskies just aren't getting enough respect here. Duke deserves credit for finishing the season strong with a pair of wins to earn a bowl bid. However, Northern Illinois also sat home last bowl season and so they are just as hungry as the Blue Devils here. Also, before winning their final two games, Duke did lose 6 straight. Certainly their special teams play will be impacted in this game as well as the Blue Devils dismissed Austin Parker from the team. Parker was handling both kicking and punting duties for Duke. With that said, the Blue Devils are certainly going to be impacted by the unsettled situation in the kicking and punting game for this one. This bowl game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan and certainly this is a venue the Huskies are very familiar with because of playing in the MAC. Northern Illinois went 8-4 this season and the location of this game certainly favors them. The Huskies went 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, and also they are on a 7-1 ATS run in games against teams from the Power 5 conferences. The Huskies long-term run is 6-1 ATS against ACC opponents specifically. Northern Illinois has a solid run defense allowing just 2.8 yards per carry this season. Comparatively, Duke's run defense allowed 4.1 yards per carry. Also, the Blue Devils rushing attack was held to 111 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Northern Illinois ran for 185 yards or more in 5 of its last 7 games. We like underdogs that hold the edge on both sides of the ground game and that is definitely the case here! The Huskies continue to be undervalued and we like Northern Illinois to win this game outright so we'll gladly grab the points!
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