Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65. The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance. That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally. Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less. We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up. Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting. We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight. FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less. The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play. That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference). FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards. That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses). The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak. They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17). They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke. This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT). The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. |
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02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them. While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such. Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree. Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5. The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State. Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game. A lucky might be an understatement. MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5. Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1). The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them. OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot. When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12. OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3. They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe. Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better. At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s. Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today. The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home. Ohio State is the play. |
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02-22-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 103-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels. However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home. They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games. They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou. A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining. Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home. In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG. All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play. Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road. Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%. If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here. Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games. We like Ole Miss to win and cover here. |
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02-20-20 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble. Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State. They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years. They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin. The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games. He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard. Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January. The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play. They are now 9-4. Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12. Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe. The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record. Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5. So even their wins have come down to the wire. The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14. Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright. |
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02-18-20 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan +3 | Top | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58. It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100. They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point. Kent is on the opposite track. After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games. They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference. The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright! EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC). While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run. During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots. This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home. Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home. |
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02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game. Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game. They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State. Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well. In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road. They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win. They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak. Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road. They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern. They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later. Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points. They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league. The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here. Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here. The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row. The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win. |
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02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion. The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win. Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th. Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record. Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night. Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas. The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year). It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game. Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting. This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year. They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road. They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference. Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road. They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots. That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense. This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well. They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team. Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league. The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12). However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally). Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards. Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season. We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance. This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned). Double digit win here for Baylor. |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season. After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense. They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points. UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points. They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks. On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington. That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300. Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference. They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games. UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT. That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season. Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA. The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. |
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02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -3 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET #644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season. After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11. Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one. That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer. After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter. He is back and ready to go tonight. Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road. Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss. Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock. The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here. In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy). The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team. They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference. These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR. Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home. In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68. Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire. Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season. We like Texas State to roll in this game. |
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02-12-20 | Xavier +6 v. Butler | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET These 2 are trending in opposite directions. After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points. Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month. Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton. That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8. Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep. They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less. Butler’s defense is headed south. For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP. However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference. For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play. The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG. In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential. This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points. Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year. Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results. We’ve reached that point tonight. UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining. The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP. It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high. Even with that they had a shot to win. That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense. It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight. Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games). On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend. The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league. Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one. With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover. |
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02-10-20 | Florida State +8 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright. Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play. FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5. The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less. They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that. Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC. The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining. They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season. Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight. The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville. Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category. We like this match up for the FSU defense. They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league). That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep). FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC. Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot. This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team. While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win. Take the points as this one goes to the wire. |
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02-09-20 | George Mason v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win. The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board. The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24. While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7). The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team. That is not the case. After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field. UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island). They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss. Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play. They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home. They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road. UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today. |
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02-08-20 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET Two teams headed in opposite directions here. North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit. The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game. They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit. Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin. They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU. These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses. NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson. The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings. ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG. Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %. North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense. ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9. The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference. As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss. There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point. We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that. Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland. The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one. Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58. To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement. In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game. Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch. Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak. Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season. Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game. Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games. On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots. Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games. Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday. |
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02-06-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Appalachian State | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading. They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players. 6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses). Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned). One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team. UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining. That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned. Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field. UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks. Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt. Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago. Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned. We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games. Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers. Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers. Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em. We’ll take App State to win this one. |
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02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota. The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch. They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot. The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension. Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win. Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough. They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games. They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road. Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games. While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game. We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home. |
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02-04-20 | Penn State v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone. After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points. After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland. All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road. At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points. MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime. They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss. We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins. It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday. PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7. Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game. The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game. That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home. Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year. The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points. This is a small number to lay in this situation. MSU by double digits. |
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02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -6 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog. The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14). BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th. The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable. This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well. The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining. On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night. BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9). With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco. We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home. St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far. In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time). BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %. Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep. They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits. St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge. Cougars cover easily here. |
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01-31-20 | Oakland v. Detroit -2 | Top | 77-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach). They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime. Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon. This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction. They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon. They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon. Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play. Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference. Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate. These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win. The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%. Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season. With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. |
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01-30-20 | Iowa v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal. Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak. Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern. They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight. The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers. The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss. Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned. They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions. Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking. The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend. Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa. Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season. The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts. And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins. Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later. Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests. They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight. They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points. Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points. Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight. Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight. Lay it with Maryland. |
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01-29-20 | South Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -4 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league. Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference. They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation. Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road! Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5. On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road. At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota. Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games. This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG. We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend. South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits. SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points. On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record. Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team. ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight. So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA). Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road. This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it. |
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01-28-20 | Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic. Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56. The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%. Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC. The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points. They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers. Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency. They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games. Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best. We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points. They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it. They should be focused here. Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16. That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10. The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015. They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog. Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight. |
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01-26-20 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -4 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date. They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams. In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12). Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road. At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG. Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%. Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time. The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up. Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s. Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters. Line value is with Siena here. Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT. Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday. |
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01-25-20 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern -2 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars. We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State. Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday. These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2. Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year. They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league. Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games. One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch. Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here. Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team. Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry. The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today. Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover. |
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01-25-20 | Southern Illinois v. Illinois State -1.5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road. That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season. Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points. We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points. It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck. UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win. It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year. ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight. Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak. ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win. They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006. There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored. Take Illinois State. |
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01-23-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota -7 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time. South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84. As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one. During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year. They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit). We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards. Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league. They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points. They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%. On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense. That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country. The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally). They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc. The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset. The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers. He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined. On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season. IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit. We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota. |
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01-22-20 | Penn State v. Michigan -5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10. The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings. Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc. The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7. The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins. They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday. Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota. The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG. This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play. As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games. They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG. Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here. Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play. Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line. Take Michigan. |
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation. The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68. At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league. This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose. Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th. That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42. They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago. They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%). The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight. After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4. Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014. We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after. We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent. Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points. We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover. Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). More of the same on Tuesday. |
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01-20-20 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA. They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race. One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th. It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s). Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not. ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season. They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola. This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS). The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th. Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday. Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings. Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home. |
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01-19-20 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota -1.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit. We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them. They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit. Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road). They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league. We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018. The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3. Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night. State is also one of the favorites to win the conference. The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard). Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup. They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG. South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home). Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV. While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset. |
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01-18-20 | Purdue v. Maryland -5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Great spot for the Terps here. They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week. Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State. They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good. Not so much on the road. Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road. In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc. To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories. Not good to say the least. Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG. All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points. The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game. Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year. Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56. At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2. The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season. Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team. The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year. Lay the small number. |
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01-16-20 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State +5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt. They are better than their record and playing very well right now. After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT. Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win. Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena. Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week. Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0. However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock. Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina. Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned). The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT. This line is too high. Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally). Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half. Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close. Take the points. |
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01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion. The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6. That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining. Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home. They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana. They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th). They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East. The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field. Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record. They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile. We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score. Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home. They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland. The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned. This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons. We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32. To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002. They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons. Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8. Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament. The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road. In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home. We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover. |
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01-14-20 | DePaul +9.5 v. Villanova | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East. Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade. Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak. They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home. The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned. Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points. Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend. Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago. They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players. Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season. They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th. DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation. The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul. Villanova is good, not great. Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here. It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points. |
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01-12-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota -2 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love this spot for the Gophers at home. They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams. Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT. Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night. The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half. Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10. At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9. The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday. They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup. In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes. It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game! Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough. As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points. Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan. With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc. Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2. So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record? While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record. Take the Gophers. |
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01-11-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -11.5 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that. They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State. In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams. They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4. As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country. They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season. Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far. They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record. The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game). Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG. Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game. The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation). Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well. They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG. That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State. That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG. GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one. |
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01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +2 | Top | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes. Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season. Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota. They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort. Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game. They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week. The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State. Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage. On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%. Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%. The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road. That has proven true thus far. If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season. Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night. |
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01-09-20 | Arizona v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season. They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor. After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games. In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson. Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor). Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th). Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court. The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment. The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena. They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation). They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers. The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation. Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14. This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. |
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01-08-20 | Kansas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion. Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova. They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread. KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength. This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons. However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past. We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game. We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak. This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams. They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time. Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons. Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th). The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation. Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th). Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight. KU with the win and cover. |
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01-07-20 | TCU v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home. This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November. They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games. KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home. All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100. Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition. The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th. Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half. TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well. Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%. TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation. That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task. This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday. They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here. |
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01-06-20 | South Alabama v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here. First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point. This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip. Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss). The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6. They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1. All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200. The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th. South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington. They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference. This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span. Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category. The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win. UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up. Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here. Texas Arlington is the side tonight. |
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01-04-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored? Looks too easy to take SDSU. We like Utah State here. The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference. They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team. They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances. Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up. The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point. These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54. The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here. SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month. Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue. He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding. Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game. With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year. It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West. It will matter here. We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not. They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%). The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot. That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops). We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home. |
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01-02-20 | St. Louis +3 v. Duquesne | Top | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal. Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115. Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court. This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season. The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins. St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule. The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road. Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings. STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL. This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues. Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season. So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight. These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home. One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess. In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds! They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again. St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%. We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog. |
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12-30-19 | Xavier +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier. Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships. They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor. They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins. They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players). How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas? This might be a tough game for them. Xavier is very good this year. They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio. Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2). They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago. The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games. Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT. One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney. That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4. This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back. We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game. Take the points. |
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12-21-19 | Purdue v. Butler -2 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today. While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother. Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120. However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category. The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings. They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100. The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings). The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion. Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer. We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs. |
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12-19-19 | Coastal Carolina -4.5 v. Troy State | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here. C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points. |
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12-18-19 | East Tennessee State +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season. The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak. They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm. There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season. That would be a mistake. ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen. The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year. Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most. In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41. They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining. They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games. LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams. They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU. Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle. This game should be tight and we take the points. |
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12-16-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2 | Top | 85-47 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots. That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number. We agree with the move. Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season. The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less. The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now. They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year. Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road. They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game. They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7. Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one. While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday. While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation. Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team. We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET Great spot for the Wolverines here. They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69. They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton. Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville. They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season. They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney. The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc. That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court. The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above. Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category. It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss. Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road. We like Michigan in this spot. |
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12-11-19 | Winthrop +12 v. TCU | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Winthrop +12 over TCU, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Winthrop comes in with a 4-5 record but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation (45th ranked SOS) and they’ve been very competitive. 4 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less and their other loss was by 13 points @ Duke. In that game the Blue Devils were +10 made FT’s and shot 58% from beyond the arc to just 28% for Winthrop and it was STILL a competitive game. Duke led by 7 at half and it was still a 7 point game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining. In their 4 games vs top 130 teams, the Eagles beat St Mary’s on the road, lost @ Fresno by 3, lost at East Tennessee State by 3 and lost @ Duke by 13. They are a dangerous team because they make 3’s at 9.3 per game (45th nationally) and tonight they face a TCU defense that ranks 332nd in 3-point percentage allowed at 39.2%. The Frogs also allow their opponents to score 35% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 65th most in the nation. The Frogs have played only 2 top 100 teams and lost to both (Clemson on a neutral site and USC at home). Their most recent game vs USC on Friday the Frogs rallied from an 18 point second half deficit only to still lose by 2. A lot of physical and mental energy was used in that come back and we expect them to be flat vs an opponent they may not get the motor going. That would be a mistake. Beyond their 2 losses, TCU has played only 2 other teams ranked between 100 & 200 beating UC Irvine at home by 1 & Illinois State at home by 12 which was their largest lead of the game (TCU led by just 6 with less than 4:00 remaining). Winthrop is one of the better mid major programs (6 straight winning seasons) and they will be ready here as they have been all season vs big conference opponents. They are rested as they’ve played only 1 game since December 1st and if TCU comes in flat at all, they could be in trouble. Take the 12 points as we expect a tight game here. |
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12-10-19 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -4 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve. They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season. In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th. They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here. Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower. Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court. The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points. They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games. Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG. They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned. Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend. Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value. |
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12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion. It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points. Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home. This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral). They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance. They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year. That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season. Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game. They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams. The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game. The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points. Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover. Take the Badgers. |
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12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -3 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus. All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena. They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome. UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late. The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site. OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State. Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road. We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that. The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury. Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go. OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards. It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels. They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number. We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season. |
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12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7. That should motivate them for this rematch. Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State. The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37. Yes you read that correctly. It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts! After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home. They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point. Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points? That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving. Ole Miss is still a favorite. This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season. Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team. All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season. Take Ole Miss. |
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12-02-19 | North Carolina Central +16 v. Wofford | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons. They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now. They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser. They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally). Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year. The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance. However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech. Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program. With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5). This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success. We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa State v. Seton Hall -2 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET This line is light according to our power ratings. We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here. The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom). The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2). Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category). In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2. Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half. This is a favorable match up for the Hall. They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team. They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally). The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones. They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s. As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one. |
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11-25-19 | Stanford v. Oklahoma -4 | Top | 73-54 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2 Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal. OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts. The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion. Stanford is the opposite as far as experience. They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry. The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment. We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court. On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower. This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency. Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency. The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA. Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season. We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here. |
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11-24-19 | Akron +18.5 v. Louisville | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents. With that, we have a pretty solid comparison. Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central. Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar. Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points. Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep. That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense. Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog. Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season. Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%. They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation. Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6). This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here. |
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11-18-19 | Appalachian State v. NC-Greensboro -9 | Top | 41-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite. Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%. It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG. It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season. Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons. They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago. Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game. In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State. They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss). App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation. Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record). They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around. While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season. Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season. It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally. App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate. This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home. UNCG wins by double digits. |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans. Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so. However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State. We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here. If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite. So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans. Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency). However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke. We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense. We do give MSU a decent edge offensively. They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%. The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga. The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part. They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%. Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed. We expect MSU to shoot better in this game. Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here. They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games. We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities. While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game. The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005. While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech. Those teams usually don’t move on. In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever. Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999). We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game. Take the Spartans on Saturday. |
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04-04-19 | Lipscomb +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Lipscomb +1.5 over Texas, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN From a straight value perspective, Lipscomb is definitely worth a look here. They are +1.5 in this game vs Texas. For comparison’s sake, the Longhorns were +1.5 on Tuesday when they faced TCU here at Madison Square Garden. Looking at power ratings (Ken Pom) Lipscomb is actually rated as a better team than TCU (#39 while TCU is #43). That tells us this number should be similar to Tuesday’s TCU – Texas game but it’s a full 3-point difference. We were on Texas on Tuesday as we felt the situation was perfect. The Horns were in revenge mode vs their Big 12 and in state rival after losing at home to TCU just a few weeks earlier in their regular season finale. The loss by the Horns pretty much eliminated them from any at large bid consideration for the NCAA. That gave UT some major motivation on Tuesday and they handled TCU winning by 14. The Frogs shot as poorly as they have in a long time making only 28% of their shots and just 19% from beyond the arc. While this is now the NIT Championship game, don’t be surprised if Texas is a bit flat vs no-name Lipscomb. The Horns had their big game on Tuesday. On the other hand, this is a program changing game for Lipscomb. They have proven more than worthy to be here winning ALL of their NIT games on the road (@ Davidson, @ UNC Greensboro, and @ NC State). Texas played all of their NIT games at home until Tuesday’s neutral court match up with TCU. Speaking of TCU, on a sidenote this Lipscomb team beat TCU by 9 on the road earlier this year. Back to this game…We don’t expect the Longhorns to shut down Lipscomb’s offense as they did with TCU a few days ago. That’s because the Bisons shoot well from every level (21st nationally in eFG%) and make nearly 76% of their FT’s as well. Defensively the Bisons are very good at defending the 3 point line (allowing 32% which is 47th nationally) which is a good match up for them here as Texas shoot a lot of 3’s. The Horns pick up almost 37% of their points from beyond the arc which is 61st most nationally. If they struggle from 3, which they could here vs this defense, they are in trouble. Lipscomb is a veteran team with 5 upperclassmen in the starting line up. They went to the NCAA last year and lost in UNC. These upperclassmen have been very successful with a 72-30 record over the last 3 seasons. Also keep in mind, this team was favored by 6-points in the Atlantic Sun Championship game but lost to Liberty. That’s the same Liberty team that beat Mississippi State in round one of the Big Dance and then gave Va Tech all they could handle in the round of 32. Taking on a below .500 Big 12 team (in conference play) in a potential letdown spot is worth a long look. We like Lipscomb to win the NIT Championship. |
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04-02-19 | Texas +1.5 v. TCU | Top | 58-44 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas +1.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET Our power ratings have Texas favored by 1 point on a neutral court so the line value is with the Horns in our opinion. On top of that, this is a double revenge spot for Texas who lost both games to TCU this year. They lost a tight game on the road 65-61 back in January. They then lost a huge home game to TCU just a few weeks ago, a game they really needed if they wanted a chance for an at large NCAA tourney bid. The Horns blew it at home shooting just37% while allowing TCU to make 54% of their shots. Worse yet, Texas shot just 21% from behind the arc while the Frogs made over 50% of their 3-pointers. Just an all around poor shooting effort for the Longhorns. Also make note, the Horns top player, Kerwin Roach, did not play in that regular season finale vs TCU but has since come back to score 8, 12, 21, and 14 points since that loss. UT was 1-4 during Roach’s 5-game suspension and they are 3-1 since he came back with their only loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Roach will be in the line up on Tuesday. Also note that Texas was favored by 7 in that meeting just a few weeks ago and now they are an underdog on a neutral court which is a huge over adjustment in just a few weeks time. After that loss, Texas head coach Shaka Smart was fairly blunt and straight to the point. "I've never been as disappointed as I am right now," said Smart, who is 66-65 overall at Texas, and 31-41 in the Big 12. "I know our players are a better than they played today, I know we're a better team than we played today. It doesn't matter, you've got to go do it." The Longhorns had no idea they’d get another shot at TCU and we expect them to play with an emotional edge here. Both teams come in having won all 3 of their NIT games at home. Despite their two losses to TCU, the Longhorns were the better team all season long. They have a higher power rating, they finished with a better Big 12 record, they were better both offensively and defensively in efficiency (Big 12 games). If it’s a tight game late and comes down to FT’s the Horns made 75.6% of their freebies on conference play while TCU made just 68%. Texas was close to having a much better record than 8-10 in the Big 12 as 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less. TCU, on the other hand, finished 7-11 in league play and 7 of their 11 losses came by 9 points or more. We definitely feel Texas is the better team and with the added motivation we expect them to get the win on Tuesday night. |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET Duke really shouldn’t be here. They’ve had back to back games go to the wire and each time their opponent (UCF & Va Tech) have missed layups at the buzzer to either win or tie. Now they face a veteran MSU team that is better than both of those opponents and has won their first 3 tourney games by an average of 16 PPG. Sparty has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 2 points. While Michigan State is peaking right now, we’re not so sure we can say the same about Duke. They are 9-3 their last 12 games and nearly half of those wins (4) have come by 2 points or less. Looking at season long numbers a strong argument could be made that the Spartans are simply a better team overall. They are definitely a better shooting team ranking 13th in eFG% while Duke ranks 52nd in that category. The Spartans are the much better 3-point shooting team making 38% from beyond the arc (21st nationally) compared to just 30% for Duke (329th nationally). They also make 75% of their FT’s compared to Duke’s 68%. Defensively they are much closer with MSU ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense while Duke ranks 9th in that category. Rebounding edge also goes to Michigan State with a +9.5 rebounding margin compared to Duke’s sitting at +6.0. MSU is great on the offensive boards (21st) while Duke struggles on the defensive boards (240th). The Devils will also potentially be without their 3rd leading scorer, Cam Reddish, who has a bad knee and will be a game time decision. This one also falls into the same system we had yesterday with Texas Tech. Elite 8 underdogs of +4.5 or less who are also the lower seed are now 20-8 SU and 19-7-1 ATS dating back to 2003. Our power ratings have this game even so getting 2-points is some solid value. |
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03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Purdue, Saturday at 8:49 PM ET Purdue has simply shot the lights out the last 2 games beating Villanova & Tennessee and shooting 54% from the field in the process. They’ve hit a ridiculous 31 of 61 from 3 point range for 51%. Even with that performance, they needed a stupid foul by UT on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and then OT to beat the Vols. Can they keep that red hot shooting in tact here? We highly doubt it. After facing 2 decent but not great defenses (UT ranked 42 in defensive efficiency & Nova ranked 81st) the Boilers now face a defense that definitely can slow them down. UVA ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 5th in eFG% defense, and 2nd in 3-point FG% defense. Purdue lives beyond the arc and now they face a team that allows their opponents to make just 28% on the season. No way Purdue continues their 50% barrage from deep here. UVA has kind of done the opposite. While Purdue has needed huge offensive performances to move on, the Cavs have not played very well offensively yet they continue to win. On Thursday they shot just 35% overall and a very poor 27% from 3-point range, yet still beat a red hot Oregon team by 4 points. This UVA team is definitely capable of breaking out offensive as they rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 20th in eFG%, and 7th in 3-point FG%. They may just break out here vs a Purdue defense that allowed Tennessee to make 50% of their shots on Thursday. If Virginia gets their offense going here, we think they will, we don’t see how Purdue can win this game. This is a bad match up for |
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03-30-19 | Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas Tech +4.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET What a match up we have in this one. It’s the #1 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Gonzaga) vs the #1 defense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Texas Tech). We like the top defense to keep this very close so we’ll take the points. We were on Florida State +8 vs Gonzaga on Thursday as we felt the Noles defense would slow down the Zags while doing enough offensively to keep it close. Well we were half right as FSU held Gonzaga to just 40% shooting. The problem was, the Seminoles shot just 39% and make only 3 of their 20 three point attempts (15%). The game ended with the Zags winning 72-58, however it was much closer than that. It was actually just a 4-point lead for Gonzaga with less than 3:30 remaining and FSU went on to make only 1 of their final 7 shots. The Seminoles also started fouling with 2:00 minutes remaining leading to 7 points from the FT for Gonzaga in the final minutes. If Gonzaga struggled offensive vs FSU they will definitely have problems against Tech. The Red Raiders held a very good Michigan team to only 44 points on 32% shooting on Thursday on their way to a 19 point blowout win. They are playing fantastic basketball winning by margins of 15, 20, and 19 points in the Big Dance. They have covered the spread by more than 40 points in those 3 games combined. They have held those 3 opponents (Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, and Michigan) to just 35% combined shooting. Gonzaga simply isn’t accustomed to facing top notch defensive teams in the WCC and it showed on Thursday vs FSU. We expect Tech’s offense, which has shot 48% in the tourney, to cause some problems for the Zags. Tech also falls into a very strong historical spot here. Since 2003, Elite 8 underdogs of 4.5 points or more and if they are the lower seed are 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%)! That falls right on Texas Tech in this one. We think Tech has a great shot to win so we’ll take the points. |
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03-28-19 | Purdue v. Tennessee -1 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee -1 over Purdue, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET We were on UT last weekend and they jumped all over Iowa and at one point had a 25-point lead and they were up 21 at half. The Vols came out in the 2nd half and were tentative and absolutely played to protect the lead rather than staying aggressive. They went on to beat Iowa by 6 in OT and we’re pretty sure they learned their lesson. Tonight if they get a lead, which we expect them to do, we do not look for them to back off. They are facing a Purdue team that is very efficient offensively (5th in the country) but relies way too heavily on 1-player as we’ve discussed in the past. Carsen Edwards has taken nearly 35% of Purdue’s shots this season and 41% of their shots thus far in the NCAA tourney. If he is off, this team is in trouble. He was not off in their most recent game last weekend as the Boilers plastered Villanova with Edwards scoring 42 points on 21 shot attempts. He was struggling heading into that game shooting just 27% overall his previous 4 games. Tennessee has a number of athletic defenders they can run at Edwards so we expect him to struggle a bit in this one. As good as the Boilers are on offense, the Vols are better. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 21st in eFG%, both better than Purdue. They are much tougher to guard with 5 players averaging more than 10 PPG which is the opposite of Purdue. While the Boilers rely on making 3-pointers, the Vols are one of the top interior teams in the country with 55% of their points coming from inside the arc (25th nationally) and they make nearly 56% of their 2-pointers (20th nationally). Sometimes deep shooting doesn’t travel quite as well so we trust a team that will be more reliable inside the arc. If Purdue is red hot from 3 and Edwards goes off, UT is in trouble. We don’t expect that to happen so we’ll side with Tennessee to win this one. |
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03-24-19 | Liberty v. Virginia Tech -8.5 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET We think the line value is on Va Tech here. The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington. While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9. We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14. We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated. They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds. Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game. They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense. They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense. Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season. Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt. Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win. Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season. Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here. Take Va Tech. |
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03-24-19 | Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5 | Top | 77-83 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead. The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half. For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers. The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally). That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team. Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season. This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits. The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep. They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense. UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally). Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally). The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s. They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well. UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively. Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here. That leads to a double digit win for UT. |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value. We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point. ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13. We still contend Purdue is overrated right now. They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska. The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy. Carsen Edwards. He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%). He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down. The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles. We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc. Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova. The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova. Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well. Nova defends the arc better which should help here. The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team. They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here. This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright. Take the points. |
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03-23-19 | Murray State v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET The value is absolutely on FSU here. They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State. FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st. The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance. Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town. FSU is a different animal. While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller. Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency). This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season. Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant. FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between 7 PPG and 13 PPG. The Noles should control the boards as well in this one. They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding. Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here. One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday. Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse. They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant. FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here. |
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03-22-19 | St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10 | Top | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney. The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in. First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned. They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days. They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%). Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games. Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses. Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally. The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG. They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury. He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates. With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range. We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here. Take Virginia Tech tonight. |
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03-22-19 | Arizona State +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 74-91 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt. The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points. We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in. They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented. If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1. They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG. We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney. They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league. The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT. The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process. The MAC is proving us correct thus far. The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette. Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12. Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11. The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40. Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS! We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on. Take the points. |
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03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -3.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET We love this match up for Cincy. The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston. They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record. They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish. Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch. It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February. They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game. We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here. Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense. Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively. Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games. That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP. Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again. The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding. This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away. Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league. It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney. The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding. They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one. |
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03-21-19 | Old Dominion +12.5 v. Purdue | Top | 48-61 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games. ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%. While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number. This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION |
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03-21-19 | Florida +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo). This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree. A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team. The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall. They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida). The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating). They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation. Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion. Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season. Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%. Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub. Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney. They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference. Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking. Take the Gators |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State -1.5 v. St. John's | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch. ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row. The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime. That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points. They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record. St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season. That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way. The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams. Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season. Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll. He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games. ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally). That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT. Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight. Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game. In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference. ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation. The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here. Lay the small number with Arizona State. |
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03-19-19 | Hofstra +9.5 v. NC State | Top | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2 You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here? They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub. Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT. We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great. There is more to it than that however. This is a dangerous match up for NC State. Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round. Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out. Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback. They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%. They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation). Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country. That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot. The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral). This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program. The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th. We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread. |
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03-17-19 | Michigan +1 v. Michigan State | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game. These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title. The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control. “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game. MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten. That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome. Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one. In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings. We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions. MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%. Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27. Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here. MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half. Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes. The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here. We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season. We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship. |
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03-16-19 | Western Kentucky -1 v. Old Dominion | Top | 56-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely. They are a team that if motivated is very good. They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia. They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle. Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential. This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated. One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11. USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19). ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long. They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting. Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost. They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1. ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game! Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining! ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining. Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both. However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games. Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4. Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3. Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off. There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st. Take Western Kentucky. |
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03-15-19 | Colorado +3.5 v. Washington | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year This line looks like a trap to us. The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th? Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above. We like Colorado here. Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team. Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those. The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games. Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT. Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8. During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford). Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field. The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are confident and dangerous right now. Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight. |
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03-14-19 | Penn State -2 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State. There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid. PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10. Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT. They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland. PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4. They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting. They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense. That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season. Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch. They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out. PSU is playing loose and with house money. These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak. Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead. PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch. They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint. He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents. Penn State gets the win and cover here. |
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03-14-19 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Florida State | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56. They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game. Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game. The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game? There is a reason for that. FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3). Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive. They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8. Their other game during that stretch comes into play here. That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team. The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT. That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch. The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep). VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team. We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win. |
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03-13-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +1.5 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +1.5 over Nebraska, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET These two teams were heading in opposite directions over the last half of the Big Ten season. Rutgers has improved throughout the season and they’ve become a very dangerous opponents. After starting just 1-6 in Big 10 play, the Knights went 6-7 down the stretch. A few of those losses as well were close to being wins (lost by 2 in miracle shot at buzzer vs Iowa, lost by 1 to red hot PSU team, lost in OT vs Illinois). The Huskers, on the other hand, started the Big 10 season with a 3-3 record and then went downhill fast from there. They were just 3-11 over their last 14 games and 2 of those 3 wins came by 1 point and 2 points. Their most recent win at home last Sunday was a bit of a miracle as they trailed a plummeting Iowa team (Hawkeyes had lost 3 straight games by 20, 20, and 16 points) by 8 points with 45 seconds remaining. Nebraska then proceeded to make 3 three pointers in the final 40 seconds to push the game to OT where they won by 2. Fortunate to say the least at home vs a team that was playing terrible basketball coming in. The Husker defense has been abysmal this year ranking 14th in defensive efficiency (conference games), 14th in 3-point defense, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Their offense hasn’t been much better averaging just 63 PPG since they lost starter Isaiah Copeland for the season 11 games ago. Despite their win last Sunday, they looked to us down the stretch like a team that was ready for the season to be over. Their head coach Tim Miles is most likely gone at the end of the season and the vibe around the program is negative right now. Rutgers is the exact opposite. The team is improving and their head coach Steve Pikiell has this team at 7 conference wins after they ended with only 3 each of the last 2 years. Their lone meeting this year was a Rutgers win (76-69 final score) and that was when Nebraska still had Copeland in the line up. We think Rutgers should be favored here and we like the Knights to win this game. |
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03-13-19 | Colorado State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -3 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET Love this spot for Boise. They are in revenge mode here after throwing up a stinker at home vs CSU at the end of February. The Broncos lost that game 76-62 which was their worst home loss of the season. We considered CSU in that game but didn’t pull the trigger as Boise was in a terrible spot and we could see a flat performance coming for that game. That’s because the Broncos were off a brutal 3 game stretch in which they played 3 of the top 4 teams in the MWC (Utah St, Fresno St, and San Diego State) all to the wire and lost all 3. Watching their game vs CSU we could see the Broncos were burnt out both physically and mentally after their grueling stretch in which they had a legitimate shot at 3-0 but ended up 0-3. The Rams shot almost 60% in that game while Boise shot just 39%. If you simply look at BSU’s results down the stretch in looks like they were struggling. That is not the case. The did lose 6 of their last 7, however 5 of those 6 losses came down to the final seconds of each game. Their loss margins in those games were 1, 2, 6, 4 in OT, and 7 in OT with four of those setbacks coming on the road. This team is MUCH better than their 7-11 MWC record. They are 12-19 on the season yet they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 71-68! Despite finishing tied for 7th with 2 other teams, the Broncs power rate as the 5th best team in the MWC behind only Nevada, Utah St, Fresno, and San Diego St. CSU was in a fantastic spot on Saturday in their home finale facing a UNLV team with absolutely nothing to play for (already locked into a first round game vs San Diego State). Despite that, the Rams couldn’t get it done at home and lost by 5. After beating Boise in late February, the Rams went on to lose their final 3 games, 2 coming at home. One of their top shooters, Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11 PPG), might miss this one as well with an Achilles injury. Boise has the advantage of just playing at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas losing to UNLV by 4. CSU has not played here since January 3rd. We like Boise here to pick up a win and cover. |
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03-12-19 | Appalachian State +8 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court. Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6. App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts. However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc. Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire. The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul. The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game. We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here. If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year. However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on. Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks. The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games. Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league. ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed. Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best. We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest. Take the points. With Appalachian State. |
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03-11-19 | San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2 This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego. The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first. San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas. Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium. If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off. Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd. To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion. We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff. San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior. Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season. They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings. This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose. On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance. Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday! Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points. St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings. They are beatable especially in this spot. The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength. That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight. We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion. Take San Diego. |
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03-09-19 | Tulsa v. Memphis -8 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis. That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night. The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot. They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever. They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way. The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa. We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane. They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF). They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points. The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog. Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2). They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch. They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th. The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State. Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings. We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday. Lay the points. |
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03-09-19 | Baylor v. Kansas -7 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday. We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year. However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss. They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game. They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games. While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record. They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots. 9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads. They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference. They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen. They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive. They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12. Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT). The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here. When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts! KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale. |
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03-07-19 | Cincinnati v. UCF -2 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55. The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half. Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight. The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game. This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting. Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena. Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record. However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight. Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less. They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight. In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%. That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense. They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line. 40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC. That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games. This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation. A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go. We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight. |
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03-06-19 | Boise State v. New Mexico -1.5 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65. We’re right back on the Lobos at home here. We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year. New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process. Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game. The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other. The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge. They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall. The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351). On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise. They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs. Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81. That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play. New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play. They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late. The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games. They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games. That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired. We like New Mexico to win their home finale. |
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03-06-19 | Texas-San Antonio +6 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET These two met one time this season and we remember it well. We were on Western KY at home favored by 6. We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win. UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points. The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run. After that, they trailed for most of the game. WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points. The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line. We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here. Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road. Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out. They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference. Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70. On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season. Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG. In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY. A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY. We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around. |
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03-06-19 | Missouri v. Georgia -3.5 | Top | 64-39 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points? We agree with the number. Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why. Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season. They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home. The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3. Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference. Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%. They were also plus on the boards during that stretch. Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents. The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season. They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points. The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time. They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio. Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road. That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover. |
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03-05-19 | Kansas v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2 We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night. This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday. A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance. “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.” OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season. Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title. Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday. The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record. That has been the theme for this young KU team this year. They really can’t be trusted on the road. They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points. Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here. These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63. The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go. Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game. Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team. OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season. This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team. We’ll take the home dog. |
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03-03-19 | Michigan v. Maryland +1 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week We love this situation for Maryland. The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday. That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game. On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland. Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53. Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home. Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few. These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win. The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep. They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game. One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home. Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG. Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good. The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%). We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%. The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road. They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State. We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home. |
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03-02-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET This is a great spot for New Mexico. They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West. The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34. San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%. Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort. The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference). Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins. Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play. Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27! Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT. We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU. They are still just 3-7 away from home this season. The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home! New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made. Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team. With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season. Lay it with the Lobos |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers +9 v. Iowa | Top | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits. We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch. We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points. We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now. This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss. Rutgers is trending upward. They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid. That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game. Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday. Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run. They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch. Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending. In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining. Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win. Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well. Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG. Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making. We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana. Take the points. |
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03-02-19 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 52-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington. We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field. Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year. That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points. The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis. He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February. Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game. In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win. This will be their first road game without Travis. Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy. They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game. Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama. Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that. The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky. Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November. We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home. |
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03-01-19 | Siena +1.5 v. Canisius | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January. Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66. One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points. His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here. Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year. They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS). Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play. Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be. Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion. They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage). This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team. Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points. We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena. |
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02-28-19 | Arizona State v. Oregon -3 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses. Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington. The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate. They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league. Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight. These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home. The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon. The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions. Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host. The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home. ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton). After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here. Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference). It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team. The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team. Interesting line move and we agree with it. Take Oregon. |
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ASA NCAA-B Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
02-22-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 103-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
02-20-20 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
02-18-20 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan +3 | Top | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -3 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
02-12-20 | Xavier +6 v. Butler | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
02-10-20 | Florida State +8 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
02-09-20 | George Mason v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
02-08-20 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
02-06-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Appalachian State | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
02-04-20 | Penn State v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -6 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
01-31-20 | Oakland v. Detroit -2 | Top | 77-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
01-30-20 | Iowa v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
01-29-20 | South Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -4 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
01-28-20 | Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
01-26-20 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -4 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
01-25-20 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern -2 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
01-25-20 | Southern Illinois v. Illinois State -1.5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
01-23-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota -7 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
01-22-20 | Penn State v. Michigan -5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
01-20-20 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
01-19-20 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota -1.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
01-18-20 | Purdue v. Maryland -5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
01-16-20 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State +5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
01-14-20 | DePaul +9.5 v. Villanova | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
01-12-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota -2 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
01-11-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -11.5 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +2 | Top | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
01-09-20 | Arizona v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
01-08-20 | Kansas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
01-07-20 | TCU v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
01-06-20 | South Alabama v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
01-04-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
01-02-20 | St. Louis +3 v. Duquesne | Top | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Xavier +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Purdue v. Butler -2 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
12-19-19 | Coastal Carolina -4.5 v. Troy State | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
12-18-19 | East Tennessee State +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
12-16-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2 | Top | 85-47 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Winthrop +12 v. TCU | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -4 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -3 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
12-02-19 | North Carolina Central +16 v. Wofford | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Iowa State v. Seton Hall -2 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Stanford v. Oklahoma -4 | Top | 73-54 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Akron +18.5 v. Louisville | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
11-18-19 | Appalachian State v. NC-Greensboro -9 | Top | 41-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
04-06-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
04-04-19 | Lipscomb +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
04-02-19 | Texas +1.5 v. TCU | Top | 58-44 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
03-31-19 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
03-30-19 | Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
03-28-19 | Purdue v. Tennessee -1 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
03-24-19 | Liberty v. Virginia Tech -8.5 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
03-24-19 | Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5 | Top | 77-83 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
03-23-19 | Murray State v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
03-22-19 | St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10 | Top | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Arizona State +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 74-91 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -3.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Old Dominion +12.5 v. Purdue | Top | 48-61 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Florida +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
03-20-19 | Arizona State -1.5 v. St. John's | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
03-19-19 | Hofstra +9.5 v. NC State | Top | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
03-17-19 | Michigan +1 v. Michigan State | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
03-16-19 | Western Kentucky -1 v. Old Dominion | Top | 56-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
03-15-19 | Colorado +3.5 v. Washington | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
03-14-19 | Penn State -2 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
03-14-19 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Florida State | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
03-13-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +1.5 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
03-13-19 | Colorado State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
03-12-19 | Appalachian State +8 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
03-11-19 | San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
03-09-19 | Tulsa v. Memphis -8 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
03-09-19 | Baylor v. Kansas -7 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
03-07-19 | Cincinnati v. UCF -2 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
03-06-19 | Boise State v. New Mexico -1.5 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
03-06-19 | Texas-San Antonio +6 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
03-06-19 | Missouri v. Georgia -3.5 | Top | 64-39 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
03-05-19 | Kansas v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
03-03-19 | Michigan v. Maryland +1 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
03-02-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
03-02-19 | Rutgers +9 v. Iowa | Top | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
03-02-19 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 52-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
03-01-19 | Siena +1.5 v. Canisius | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
02-28-19 | Arizona State v. Oregon -3 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |