#808 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -5 over Washington State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Nice revenge spot here for USF after losing by 11 @ Washington State in early January. The Cougs shot 49% (USF shot 42%) and hit 37% of their triples (USF shot 30%). The thing that stood out most from that box score was Washington State attempted and made 18 more FT’s than San Fran and still only won by 11. That doesn’t match up with the season long stats of these 2 teams as USF actually attempts 21 FT’s per game while Wazzu attempts just 19. We expect those numbers to even out or even push to the Dons favor at home tonight. SF is a perfect 13-0 at home this season winning by an average score of 80-64. They’ve won 11 of those 13 home games by more than tonight’s spread which is currently -5. WSU is on a tough stretch right now playing some of their worst basketball of the season falling short of their expected efficiency numbers in 5 of their last 7 games. Since January 4th the Cougars have a 2-5 record with their only wins during that stretch coming vs San Diego and Portland, 2 of the 3 lowest teams in the WCC. The other team in that trio of lowest rated teams, Pacific, beat Wazzu twice during that stretch including on Thursday night. Now the Cougars have to travel again (their 3rd road game in the last 4) and play a very good team on the road just 48 hours after losing @ Pacific. They haven’t been a very good road team with a 3-4 record and Haslem Metrics has WSU ranked 306th on the road in their home vs road metric. USF ranks 28th in that same metric at home. We like San Fran to win and cover this game at home staying perfect on their home court.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers -8.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 5:10 PM ET - This line opened at Pacers -4.5 and has been bet up to the current number but we still have value on Indiana at -8. Atlanta has a depleted roster right now with several starters out and they are coming off a loss two nights ago in Cleveland. This is also their 4th game since Jan 27th which included a back-to-back set on the 27/28th. Atlanta has lost 7 straight games with three road losses by 9, 8 and 22-points. Indiana was just favored by -6-points at home against a Pistons team that is playing well right now so this line isn’t as high as you might think. The Pacers have won 5 of their last six at home with the lone loss coming to the Cavaliers. The five home wins in that stretch of games came by 18, 16, 12, 13 and 14-points. In each teams last 7 games the Pacers have the 7th best Net Rating in the NBA, the Hawks have the 27th worst. Indiana has won and covered 4 in a row against the Hawks and the last time they met on this court the Pacers hung 157 on this Hawks defense.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Appalachian State -11 over Georgia State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We expect a huge bounce back from a App State team that just lost at home on Wednesday night as a double digit favorite. In that 1-point loss vs Old Dominion, the Monarchs shot 49% overall and 43% from deep, well above their season averages of 40% and 28% respectively. And that was vs a very good defensive team in App State who 18th nationally in eFG% allowed and 8th nationally in 3 point FG% allowed. ODU was the first team in Sun Belt play to top 70 points vs the Mountaineers. Just an aberration in our opinion and we can expect App State to be very focused here, especially on the defensive end. Not only do we catch ASU in a good spot, we are getting Georgia State in a great fade situation after they pulled off an upset @ Marshall on Thursday night as a double digit dog. Similar to ODU vs App State, the Panthers shot WAY above their averages vs Marshall in that Thursday night win. Georgia State hit a ridiculous 62% of their shots and 50% of their triples. They average 43% and 32% on the season. Prior to that upset win, GSU was 0-7 on the road this season with 6 of those losses coming by at least 14 points. In their other road games vs top 5 teams in the Sun Belt (per KenPom) the Panthers lost @ Troy by 20 and @ Arkansas State by 26. App State ranks as the 3rd best team in the conference so similar competition to Troy and Arkansas State. Huge defensive edge for App State here as they rank 63rd nationally in defensive efficiency while Ga State ranks 323rd. The Panthers also rank dead last in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense and are getting outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions in league play (ASU is outscoring their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions). The Mountaineers have an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Wednesday compared to Ga State on Thursday and we like the host to win big here.

ASA play on Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are playing lights out basketball right now with 5 straight wins and victories in 7 of their last eight games. The only loss in that stretch of games was in Milwaukee, who is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. In fact, Toronto has the 2nd best Net Rating in the league over their last five games at +14.6. Only the Knicks have been better in that span of games at +15.6. The Bulls are playing poorly as their entire team gets mentioned in trades daily and it’s clearly had an impact on their play. Chicago is 2-8 SU in their last ten games and has the 5th worst Net Rating in that stretch of games at -8.8. All but one of the Bulls last eight losses have come by more than tonight’s point spread. Chicago’s defense is near the bottom of the league in several categories including Defensive Efficiency as they allow 1.161PPP, 23rd most in the NBA. The Raptors don’t have great season statistics, but again, in their last five games they have the 2nd best DEFF in the league allowing 1.057PPP. The trade distractions for the Bulls is apparent and the Raptors are playing at a peak level right now. Lay the points with Toronto.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara +4.5 over St Mary’s, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - St Mary’s is officially overvalued after winning 8 straight games. They are in a difficult situational spot after playing @ Washington State on Saturday and now on the road again tonight. Not only that, but it’s also the Gaels 4th road game in their last 5 games and they have their biggest home game of the year on Saturday hosting Gonzaga. They are 8-0 in WCC play but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in the conference and have not played any of the top 4 rated teams in the league (per KenPom) until tonight. STM’s road wins in conference play prior to beating Wazzou on Saturday came @ Portland, @ San Diego, and @ Pepperdine, 3 of the 4 worst teams in the WCC. Their 80-75 win over Washington State on Saturday was impressive but the Gaels also needed to overcome a double digit 2nd half deficit. In that tight win, St Mary’s shot 57% overall, 41% from 3 and 93% from the FT line, way above their season averages of 46%, 34%, and 70% respectively yet still needed a solid comeback late to win that game. Santa Clara is 6-3 in WCC play but they’ve faced the much more difficult schedule already facing San Francisco twice, Oregon State twice, Washington State, and Gonzaga. That 6 games vs the top 6 teams in the league while St Mary’s has played 2 such games (vs Wash St and San Francisco). The Broncos are coming off a loss @ Oregon State on Saturday but back home where they are 4-0 vs WCC opponents this season including a 28 point win over Washington State and a 23 point win over San Francisco. And let’s not forget Santa Clara’s road win @ Gonzaga just a week and half ago. The Broncos are the better shooting team (FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%) and this is their biggest game of the season at home. St Mary’s has been coasting vs mainly lower tier competition and this will be their toughest game since losing at home vs Utah State on Dec 22. With the Zags on deck for St Mary’s we see a letdown spot and Santa Clara pulling the upset.

#732 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -6 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for the Rebels.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and they catch Texas off a 22 point come from behind home win over rival Texas A&M.  The 3 straight losses for Ole Miss, who had won 9 of their previous 10 prior, came @ Mississippi State in OT, at home by 1 point vs A&M in a game the Rebs led by double digits in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with under 25 seconds remaining, and then @ Missouri on Saturday by 8.  In their loss @ Mizzou, the Tigers made 11 threes in that game (6 for Ole Miss) and made 28 FT’s to 13 for the Rebels.  That means from the 3 point line + free throws, Missouri had a +30 point advantage and still only won by 8 points at home.  This is one of the top teams in the SEC and extra hungry for a home win (9-1 at home) after 3 straight setbacks.  Texas comes in and might be physically and emotionally spent after their win over A&M on Saturday.  They trailed 51-29 with 17 minutes remaining in the game and expended a massive amount of energy to get back in the game and win on a shot with only a few seconds remaining.  They made 11 more FT’s than the Aggies and still needed late heroics to win that game.  Texas played that game without 2 of their top 6 rotation guys, which was impressive, but made that comeback even more draining on this game.  Arthur Kaluma (14 PPG & 8 RPG) and Chendall Weaver (7 PPG & 5 RPG) were both out of the line up on Saturday and it looks like Weaver definitely won’t play here and Kaluma is questionable at best.  The Horns have played 3 conference road games beating Oklahoma on the road by 4 and getting blown out by 20+ points @ Florida and @ A&M.  Ole Miss has played the tougher strength of schedule this season and they have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively.  Their defense ranks 10th nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers at the 6th highest rate in college basketball.  You think Ole Miss coach Chris Beard wants this one a little more than any other game they’ve played?  He was canned by Texas after the 2021/22 season.  He led the Horns to a 22-12 record that season including a win in the NCAA tourney but was fired because of a domestic abuse charge.  The spot doesn’t get much better for Ole Miss and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The Spurs just spent some time overseas in France for a two-game set with the Pacers. After that distraction and travel we will bet against them here versus the Clippers. L.A. is coming off a 109-111 loss on Monday night to the Suns and we expect them to bounce back here with a resounding road win. The Clippers are 11-8 ATS when coming off a loss with a positive differential of +1.2ppg. As a road favorite this season the Clippers are 3-3 ATS but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +9.7ppg. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -6.4ppg. The Spurs have faced the Grizzlies twice, Denver and this Clippers team in their last four true home games. They were beaten by 28 and 14 by Memphis, lost by 1-point to Denver and embarrassed this Clippers club by 36 on this court. Kawhi Leonard did not play in the most recent meeting and should be available this time around. Looking at the Clippers 10 most recent games we find they have the 3rd best Net Rating differential in the NBA. In that same 10 games the Spurs rank 25th. The Spurs offense will have a tough time against this Clippers defense that is 3rd in opponents FG%, 3rd in 3PT% and give up the 3rd fewest points per gam3e at 106.9. Before getting throttled in the most recent meeting the Clippers had won 8 in a row against the Spurs, four of which were in San Antonio, all by more than this spread.

#620 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -7.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has lost 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming vs teams rated in the top 6 nationally per KenPom.  3 of those 4 games were on the road and their lone home game was a 2 point loss vs Auburn, the #1 team in the country.  That was UGA’s only home loss of the season.  Their most recent loss on Saturday @ Florida was an embarrassing effort and by far their worst loss of the season (89-59 final) giving the Bulldogs some extra incentive for this one.  After that rough stretch of opponents, the Bulldogs are happy to be back home and facing the lowest rated team in the conference, South Carolina who sits with an 0-7 record in the SEC.  The Gamecocks have been fairly competitive at home but on the road they’ve lost 2 of their 3 games by 20+ points.  They are in a really rough situational spot here coming off 2 down to the wire SEC home losses including an OT setback vs Mississippi State on Saturday.  After expending lots of energy (both physical and emotional) in those 2 home games only to come up short in both, we wouldn’t be surprised if SC doesn’t have much left in the tank for this one.  The Gamecocks offense has been really poor in SEC play averaging just 61 PPG and ranking dead last in offensive efficiency.  Facing a UGA defense that ranks 20th nationally in defensive efficiency won’t be much help for this offense.  SC also turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference (24% turnover rate).  Georgia’s 2 home wins in the SEC have come vs Kentucky and Oklahoma, both much better teams than South Carolina, and the Dogs beat both those teams by double digits.  Georgia is a good team in desperation mode and we look for another double digit home win on Tuesday.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 at Portland Trailblazers, 6pm et - The Blazers four game winning streak is a bit of fool’s gold as it came against four teams with a combined 77-102 SU record and each team has some current ‘issues’. In that stretch of games, the Blazers beat the Heat and Bulls who are in the middle of several trade rumors, Orlando who is adjusting to players coming back and Charlotte without LaMelo Ball. Porland returns home where they are 9-12 SU with a negative point differential of -9.1ppg. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Mavericks, so we expect them to bounce back here with a little more energy and focus than normal. The Thunder are 41-34 ATS going back to 2022 when coming off a SU loss. OKC is 16-5 SU, 12-7-2 ATS this season on the road with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.1ppg. Recently the Blazers lost at home by 22 to the Rockets (-11) and by 29 to the Clippers (-7). OKC has won 14 straight meetings with the Blazers including a win on this court in early November by 23-points. We typically don’t like laying double-digits on the road but will make an exception here.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Needless to say IU is in a must win spot here at home. Following this game the Hoosiers go on a stretch that includes Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA in their next 5 games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and we’re catching some value with them because of that. They should also have some added incentive as their last home game was a 94-69 loss vs Illinois. An embarrassing effort and now they get a chance to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd. After that loss, the Hoosiers did travel to Ohio State and pick up a win as a dog and then lost @ Northwestern on Wednesday in a game they led at half but allowed the Cats to roll up 54 points in the 2nd half. Head coach Mike Woodson has stressed that defensive collapse this week and we look for a solid effort on that end of the court from the Hoosiers. IU got NBA prospect Reneau (13 PPG & 6 RPG) back in the line up @ Northwestern after missing 5 straight games. He was a bit rusty but now with a game under his belt we expect him to be more involved on Sunday. The Hoosiers are catching Maryland off a huge upset @ Illinois on Thursday (IU with an extra day having played on Wednesday) and now on the road again a few days later. In that blowout win @ Illinois one of the Illini’s top players, big man Ivisic (13 PPG & 8.5 RPG) was announced out just prior to game time with an illness. The Illini didn’t respond well and Maryland ran them off the court hitting 50% of their shots for the game. That sets this one up nicely situation wise along with pushing this number higher than it should be in our opinion. Prior to that win, the Terps were 0-4 in true road games this year including losing 2 of those games as a favorite (@ Washington and @ NW). Despite their loss most recent home loss vs Illinois, the Hoosiers are still 11-1 SU at home this season. This one is tight in our opinion so we’ll take the points with the home team.

ASA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30pm et - The Clippers and Bucks got off to poor starts this season, but both have turned things around with Milwaukee winning 5 straight and 8 of ten, while the Clippers are 5-2 SU their last seven. LA has also won 16 of their last twenty home games, 6 of their last eight in their own building by an average of +15ppg. When it comes to overall season statistics these teams are identical in terms of Net Rating at +3.3. At home the Clippers Net Rating is +7.9, the 5th highest number in the NBA, the Bucks road Net Rating is -2.4 or 17th. The biggest advantage for the Clippers in this matchup is on the boards. LA is the 6th best rebounding team in the NBA the Bucks are 14th. Milwaukee is last in the NBA in offensive rebounding but 1st in defensive rebounding. The Clippers though average just 3 less defensive rebounds per game than Milwaukee so there isn’t much of an advantage there. The Bucks are in the center of trade rumors which has to be a distraction for several players including key contributors in Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others. Of the Bucks 8 road wins this season only two have come against teams with winning records. Lay the points here with the Clippers.

#796 ASA PLAY ON California -9 over Miami FL, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Stanford over Miami on Wednesday night and picked up an easy win with the Cardinal winning 88-51.  As we stated on Wednesday, it looks like the Canes have already packed it in for the season.  They have now lost 14 of their last 15 games and since their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December, they haven’t won a game (0-7 SU).  Miami’s last 3 losses have come by margins of 35, 43, and 37 points and their only single digit loss since January 1st was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  They are not only losing, they aren’t even coming close to covering on many nights and their season spread record is now 3-16 ATS.  They face a Cal team that has some solid momentum after back to back wins including topping a solid Florida State team by 9 points on Wednesday.  Not only did they win that game (as a dog), they did so with their leading scorer, Stojakovic (19 PPG), out due to illness.  It looks like he’ll be back here and the Bears should be at full strength.  Cal’s offense has been very efficient this season (top 75 in offensive efficiency) and they are averaging 80 PPG at home.  That should continue tonight facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 343rd in scoring defense allowing 80 PPG.  The Canes are only averaging 64 PPG on the road and they’ve been held to 54 or less in their last 2 road games.  Looks like blowout potential here with Cal.  We’ll lay it.

#790 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Xavier has been playing really well as they try to get themselves back into NCAA tourney consideration (12-8 overall record). They have won 3 of their last 4 games, including upsetting Marquette on the road. Their 1 loss during that stretch was in OT on Wednesday @ St Johns, who is in first place in the Big East with an 8-1 record, and XU held a 16 point 2nd half lead in that game. The Musketeers led that game by 10 at half and St Johns led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half before the game went to OT. Xavier ranks 91st nationally in Haslam’s Momentum metric since January 1st while UConn ranks 305th. The Huskies simply aren’t playing well right now. They are 6-2 in Big East play but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the conference (9th SOS out of 11 – Xavier has played the #1 SOS in Big East play) yet only 1 of their wins has come by more than 8 points. Their last 2 games were both at home where they lost to Creighton and squeaked by Butler 80-78 in OT. UConn’s defense has not been good this year (ranked 132nd in efficiency) and their 3 point defense has been really poor, ranking 341st in the country. That’s not a good match up for this Xavier team that hits over 38% of their triples which is good for 23rd best in the nation. These 2 met already this season in December and XU took the Huskies to OT on the road before losing 94-89. The Musketeers took Connecticut to the wire on the road in that game despite missing leading scorer & rebounder Zack Freemantle (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and he is back in the line up and has been playing very well. We expect XU to have a solid edge from the 3 point line again as they make almost 42% of their triples. We also look for them to have a plus margin at the FT line as UConn fouls a lot (opponents scoring 25% of their points from the FT line in Big East play which is dead last for the Huskies defense) and XU makes 78% of their freebies. This revenger sets up nicely and we’ll lay this small number.

#762 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -3 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - La Tech is 3-4 in CUSA play and MTSU is in 1st place at 5-1 yet the Bulldogs are a 3 point favorite in this game. Read the market as they say which is telling us La Tech is the right side here and we agree. While LT hasn’t won a conference road game yet, they are a perfect 3-0 at home in CUSA play and they’ve already topped the 1st (Liberty) and 4th (Western Kentucky) rated teams in the league (per KenPom) by 5 and 10 points respectively here in Ruston. Sandwiched in between those 2 impressive wins were 2 points losses @ Jacksonville State and @ Kennesaw State, who both sit tied for 2nd place in the conference. As we mentioned MTSU is in 1st place in the league and they are 2-1 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins came vs FIU, by far the lowest rated team in the conference, and vs Sam Houston State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the conference. Their win over SHSU was on Thursday night and it was down to the wire with the Blue Raiders winning 77-75. In that game SHSU missed a layup as time expired which would have sent the game to OT. Middle Tennessee shot a 47% in that win (43% for Sam Houston) and they made 12 of 26 triples for 46% which was well above their season average of 32% (219th in 3 point FG%). Even with that, this one came to the wire vs a lower tier CUSA team. That won’t happen again in this game as La Tech ranks 25th nationally defending the arc allowing just 29%. The Bulldogs are much better than their 3-4 conference record (La Tech is rated 3rd best team in the league per KenPom) and they are in a must win spot at home if they want to have a chance to move up toward the top of the CUSA standings. Tech also has some extra incentive here as they finished 22-10 last year but were surprisingly knocked out of the Conference USA tourney by this MTSU team who finished 14-19 last season. Let’s lay it with the home team.

#648 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +1 over St Louis, Saturday at 2 PM ET - GW in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses. 2 of those were road losses, including an OT setback vs George Mason who is 6-1 in the A10, and then a home loss to a red hot Duquesne team. The Revolutionaries were 9-0 at home prior to their Duquesne setback and we look for them to get back on track here. St Louis steps in having won 3 in a row but this team has not been impressive on the road this season. The Billikens were 0-3 SU on the road entering conference play and they have won 2 A10 road games but those game @ Fordham and @ Richmond, the 2 worst teams ni the conference who have a combined league record of 2-10. The one good team the played on the road in A10 play was @ VCU and St Louis lost that game by 16 points. They Billikens rank 247th in Haslam Metrics home vs road category while GW ranks 69th at home in that metric. St Louis relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (40th nationally in percentage of points from deep) but they are running into a very good 3 point defense here as the Revolutionaries rank 30th nationally allowing opponents to make only 29% from beyond the arc. GW should also get a number of extra possessions creating turnovers ranking in the top 70 in the country creating giveaways on 19% of opponents possessions while STL turns it over a lot (247th in offensive turnover percentage). George Washington is a bit weak on the boards but that shouldn’t hinder them in this game as the Billikens are as well ranking 327th in offensive rebounding percentage. St Louis has two huge home games on deck next week vs VCU and Dayton (the 2 highest rated teams in the conference) so they might be peaking ahead to those games. They are also playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 games and we think they get beat here. We’ll take George Washington at home.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -2.5 over Penn State, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re catching Iowa at the bottom of the market here as they are coming off 3 straight losses including a setback vs Minnesota on Tuesday night. Because of that we’re getting the Hawkeyes at a cheap price at home tonight in a must win game. They lost @ USC and @ UCLA, which wasn’t surprising, leading into their poor performance vs the Gophers. In their 72-67 loss vs Minnesota, the Hawks made only 3 of 21 triples (14%) and averaged just 1.00 PPP. Those numbers were WAY down from their season averages of 38.7% from 3 which is 15th best nationally and 1.19 PPP which is 19th best nationally. We expect a bounce back from a team that is 10-2 at home (only other loss was vs #3 Iowa State) as they have been very solid at home shooting 53% from the field, 40% from deep, while averaging 91 PPG. They are facing a PSU team coming off a home win over Rutgers earlier this week, but the Nittany Lions are 0-3 SU on the road in Big 10 play and just 2-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of last season. In their road games, Penn State’s numbers have dropped off drastically scoring 14 fewer points while shooting a lower percentage overall and from 3 point range. The Nits will also be without a key player, starter Puff Johnson (10 PPG and 5 RPG) who won’t play in this one due to an injury. Iowa was favored by 9 here last year and now we’re getting them at just -3. Take the Hawkeyes to win and cover at home.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright.

#781 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina A&T +12.5 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - North Carolina A&T is 0-7 SU on CAA play which is why this number is set higher than it should be according to our power ratings. Despite their losses, they’ve been competitive in conference play with all of their losses coming by 11 points or less. Towson, on the other hand, is 10-9 on the season but they do not have a single win the entire season by more than 11 points (vs D1 opponents) and their lone 11 point win came in OT. Their average margin in CAA play this season is +3.8 points. The Tigers have been favored by double digits just twice this season and failed to cover both games winning each by just 4 points. Both of those teams, Morgan State & Stony Brook, are rated lower than this A&T team per KenPom. Towson is a poor offensive team averaging just 66 PPG while ranking 350th in FG% and 327th in 3 point FG%. Tough to cover big numbers when you’re a poor shooting team that struggles to score points. NC A&T is by no means a great team but they do a few things well that should keep them close here including not turning the ball over (5th nationally in offensive turnover rate). When comparing the Aggies to Towson, they shoot a better overall percentage, a higher 3 point FG% and FT%. They average 74 PPG on the season and have scored at least 63 in all but 2 games. If A&T gets to that number here, that should be enough to cover this lofty number. Towson has won 4 straight games (overvalued) and they have a rematch with Northeastern on deck. Don’t be surprised if they overlook this winless conference team that we think will give them a battle. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Stanford -10 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - It looks like Miami may have thrown in the towel.  The Canes have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just lost 117-74 at HOME vs SMU.  Their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December and since he left the team they’ve lost 6 in a row with 5 of those losses coming by double digits.  Their only non 10 point plus loss during that stretch was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  Not only are they not winning, they aren’t covering with a spread record of 3-15 ATS on the season which is the 2nd worst mark in college basketball.  They continue to play without their leading scorer Nijel Pack who has missed the last 8 games due to an injury.  This is a tough spot for a struggling team making the long travel west for the first time this year and playing a game at 11 PM ET.  Stanford has some really solid momentum coming off a win @ North Carolina on Saturday.  The Cardinal have won 3 of their last 4 games and they have a 4-3 record in ACC play despite playing only 2 home conference games thus far, both double digit wins.  They are 9-1 overall at home with 7 of those wins coming by 10+ points.  Stanford is facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 338th in scoring defense allowing 79 PPG.  The Cardinal average 80 PPG at home and should top that number facing by far the worst defense they’ve seen in ACC play.  Miami goes down big again.

#717 ASA PLAY ON Murray State Pick'em over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for Murray State (rated the 4th best team in the MVC) coming off back to back losses.  They lost @ UIC in 2 OT’s and then ran into a red hot Bradley team, who currently has a 16-3 record, in a home loss on Saturday.  In that loss on Saturday vs Bradley, the Braves shot 53% overall, 39% from deep, and made 89% of their FT’s   The Racers have been very good on the road this season already topping both Drake and Northern Iowa (ranked #1 and #3 in the Missouri Valley).  Metrically (Haslam Metrics) has Murray State rated as the 20th best road team in the nation.  They average more PPG, shoot a higher FG%, and a higher 3 point FG% on the road this year when compared to their home stats.  They are taking on a Southern Illinois team that has won 3 straight but 2 of those wins came vs Missouri State who sits at 0-9 in conference play and one of those wins was in OT.  SIU already has 3 home losses this season including 2 in MVC play.  The Salukis have played the easier conference slate (only faced 1 of the top 4 teams thus far) yet Murray State (faced each of the top 3 teams) has better league efficiency numbers on both ends of the court.  The Racers also get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points from the stripe #1 in the MVC) and SIU does not (14% of their points from the FT line – last in the league).  When the Salukis do rarely get to the line, they only make 62% in league play (Murray State makes 73%).  We like the better team in a bounce back spot to win this game on the road.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +4 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on Duquesne (+1.5) on Saturday over St Bonnies and picked up an easy 18 point outright win with the Dukes. This team continues to be undervalued because their overall record is just 9-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 7-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 25th overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics well ahead of the 2nd best team during that stretch which is VCU (53rd). During that stretch they rank 31st nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight Dayton ranks as the 161st best team since December 11th with a 4-4 record during that stretch. Even more recently, since January 1st the Flyers are 1-3 and rank 251st nationally. This team is simply not playing well. Their lone win this month came at home on Saturday vs Loyola Chicago and that game went to OT before Dayton won by 2 points on a half court alley oop play at the buzzer. The Flyers made 12 more FT’s in that game (Loyola only made 9 FT’s and Dayton 21) and it still took OT at home to get a win. Dayton has now lost 7 straight games vs the spread but they continue to be overvalued as a road favorite here vs a team that is simply playing much better than they are right now. Our power rating has Duquesne as a favorite here so we’ll grab the value on the home team.

#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight

#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation.  They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games).  At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road).  The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games.  The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home.  Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue.  The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits.  Lay it with the Huskers.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5 at Utah Jazz,  9 PM ET - When I casually glanced through the lines this number stood out immediately and I couldn’t understand why the Hornets were laying this number on the road. A closer look revealed the injury depleted Jazz are down another starter tonight and their best player Markkanen. That means Utah is down 4 of 5 starters tonight against this Hornets team. Charlotte is healthy for the most part and has the most important pieces available tonight in Ball, Miller and Bridges. The Hornets played well last time out in a close loss in Phoenix. They led going into the 4th quarter before scoring just 15 points in the final stanza. Prior to that game they had beaten the Suns at home, played close at Cleveland and Detroit. Utah is coming off a win over the depleted Nets most recently 112-11 as a -3.5 point home favorite. Prior to that win they had lost 3 in a row. If you examine the season statistics for both teams you will find these teams have similar overall ratings/statistics, but those numbers are based on healthy rosters. Utah has the edge offensively; the Hornets have the advantage defensively. Charlotte has just 2 road wins this season, but the Jazz have just 3 home wins. Given the health of both teams this seems like an easy call with the Hornets minus the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Florida -10 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Missouri has a very good 13-3 record but that’s a bit misleading as they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (300th SOS) which is by far the lowest in the SEC. The Tigers have faced only 3 top 50 teams this season (per KenPom) and lost all 3. The average rating of the 13 teams they’ve beaten this season is 224th. They’ve also played only 2 true road games this season and lost both along with their only neutral site game. All 13 of their wins have come at home. Tonight they face one of the best teams in the country (Gators #6 per KenPom) and they’ve been rolling over teams at home. Florida’s only loss of the season came by 6 points @ Kentucky and they’ve won all of their 7 homes games by at least 18 points. That includes destroying #1 at the time Tennessee by 30 points (we were on Florida in that one) one week ago tonight. The Gators have been great on both ends of the floor ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (only 5 teams can say that). They average 86 PPG (7th nationally) and they are facing a Mizzou defense that barely ranks inside the top 100 in FG% allowed and well outside the top 200 in 3 point FG% allowed. Florida should dominate the glass for extra opportunities as they pull down over 41% of their misses (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Missouri struggles on the defensive glass (258th in defensive rebounding). The Tigers have gotten a kind whistle from the refs so far (with 13 home games) which has led to 24% of their points coming from the FT line (14th the most in the country). They won’t get that whistle on the road tonight and we don’t think they can keep up in this one. Another home blowout for Florida.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here. Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami. The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS. On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record. Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin. Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

#830 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -5.5 over Cal Irvine, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for a very good UC San Diego team. They are 14-2 on the season and 9 of their 16 games have been played away from home. Both of their losses came in November and they have since won 12 straight games. Cal Irvine is also 14-2 and both of their losses came on the road. Both of these teams are tied atop the Big West with 4-0 conference records. The situation, however heavily favors UC San Diego as UCI will be playing their 5th game in 13 days with 4 of those coming on the road. And going back further, the Anteaters have now played 7 of their last 8 games away from home dating back to December 14th. UCSD, on the other hand, is playing just their 3rd game tonight since December 28th and they’ve been at home for the last week. They just rolled Cal Poly by 27 points at home on Thursday night and they were able to spread out their minutes in the blowout. UCI just played on Thursday night @ Cal State Northridge and picked up a win and now they are playing on the road again just 48 hours later. In their win vs CSUN the Anteaters shot well above their season average from 3 point land (33%) making 44% from deep (CSUN shot 14% from beyond the arc) and made 26 FT’s (CSUN made 17) and that was the difference in the game. We don’t see that happening tonight as UCI faces the highest rated opponent (per KenPom) they’ve seen this season. Last season when these 2 faced off in San Diego, the Tritons were rated 70 spots lower than they are this season (130th last year / 60th this year) and they still topped UCI in that game. UCSD is better across the board offensive (better efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and they’ve been even more impressive at home averaging 89 PPG. San Diego should also have a big advantage in turnover margin in this game which will lead to extra possessions. The Tritons rank 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while UCI turns the ball over a lot (281st in offensive turnover rate). On the other end, UCSD only turns the ball over 14% of the time on offense which is the 25th best mark in the nation. We like UC San Diego to get the win and cover here vs what should be a road weary UC Irvine team.

#776 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara -3 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Quick revenger here for Santa Clara who just lost @ San Francisco in OT on December 30th. San Fran’s largest lead in that game was 5 points while Santa Clara led by double digits in the first half and they led by 4 with just 45 seconds remaining. That was the Broncos only loss in their last 9 games and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Dons have been very solid this season, however on the road they are just 1-2 on the year with their only win coming at Pacific (ranked 282nd per KenPom). In those 3 true road games, SF has shot just 42% while allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. They’ve also allowed 79 PPG in those games which is 12 points above what they allow on the season. Santa Clara is outscoring their opponents by +12 PPG at home and they are averaging 86 PPG here so we expect some solid offensive success for the host. The Broncos beat a very good Oregon State team here at home on Thursday night and they spread their minutes out very nicely with 9 players 10+ minutes. They also have the rest advantage having played just 3 games since playing @ San Francisco including a week off prior to beating Oregon State on Thursday. The Dons have played 4 games since beat Santa Clara and this will be their 5th game in 13 days. The Broncos won this game at home by 7 points last year as a 2.5 point dog and we look for another home win on Saturday. Lay it with Santa Clara.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +2 over Bradley, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Bradley is coming off a 7 point home loss vs Drake on Wednesday and the Braves have been trending down the last few weeks. Prior to that loss, Bradley had lost 3 straight ATS (now 4 straight) struggling with Missouri State at home and needed OT to beat Valpo and Indiana State prior to that. The Braves started the season red hot from beyond the arc but that was bound to regress. They are still ranked #2 nationally in 3 point FG% (41%) but over their last 4 games they’ve hit 25%, 35%, 32%, and 28% from deep, all well below their season average. UIC has been trending up winning 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Belmont. The same teams that Bradley recently struggled with (Drake & Missouri State), UIC beat Drake by 4 and Mizzou State by 17 over the last few weeks. Despite playing very well as of late, the Flames continue to get no respect from the oddmakers who have tabbed them as underdogs in 6 straight games and they’ve covered all 6 winning 5 of those games outright. The Flames are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 60 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are 5-1 at home this season. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this flailing Bradley team and this is it. We look for Illinois Chicago to win this game at home.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings.

#820 ASA PLAY ON Montana State Money Line -110 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Montana State has a 5-10 record to date but they’ve played a very tough schedule with 10 road games, including losses @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, @ TCU, and @ USC. They are finally back at home after a month plus on the road (last home game was Dec 7th) and they’ve lost 5 straight games (all on the road). Hungry for a win and back at home with a light spread, we really like this spot for an undervalued Montana State team. Northern Colorado has a 10-5 record, however they’ve played a much easier slate and they’ve played only 1 road game in the last month which was a win @ Denver that ranks 327th per KenPom. The Bears are 2-4 SU on the road this season where their defense has been shaky allowing 81 PPG on over 48% shooting by their opponents. Not only have they been poor on the road defensively, for the season the Bears rank 330th in eFG% allowed, 228th in 3 point FG% allowed and 323rd in 2 point FG% allowed. Montana State has a huge edge defensively in this game ranking 101st in eFG% allowed and 9th nationally defending the arc despite playing a tough schedule. The Bobcats have been very unlucky as well in regards to FT “defense” where their opponents have made 80.5% from the stripe which is the highest percentage in the nation. Montana State will also have revenge on their minds here after losing a tight 3 point game @ Northern Colorado last season blowing a 10 point lead with less than 8 minutes to go. Prior to last year’s loss, Montana State had won 8 of the previous 9 in this series and they are 28-8 SU at home all time vs Northern Colorado. Small spread here and we grab the home team.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7 PM ET - This line is a little light given what these teams have been favored by or an underdog to similar opponents. Not only that, but the last time these two teams squared off was in Chicago with the Pacers laying -3.5-points, which should have them favored by at least -8.5-points at home. Chicago was just +5.5-points at home against the Knicks and +3 at home vs. the Spurs. Indiana has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five as they continue to get healthy. In their most recent home game, they were favored by -2.5-points against the Suns and won by 16-points. The Bulls are coming off a miraculous comeback win against the Spurs after trailing by 17-points in the 4th quarter. Going back to the start of last season the Pacers are 41-23 SU at home with an average +/- of plus +6.1ppg. Indiana has a +4.1 Net Rating over their last ten games, the Bulls are minus -2.6 in NR in their last 10. More than anything we like the value in the short number and will back Indiana in this one.

#682 ASA PLAY ON George Mason -11 over Richmond, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Richmond Spiders.  They are a very poor shooting team ranking outside the top 330 in FG%, FG made per game, and 3 point FG%.  They will struggle big time offensively in this game facing a high level George Masion defense that ranks 3rd nationally allowing opponents to make only 35% of their shots and 12th nationally giving up just 61 PPG.  The Patriots have held over half their opponents (8) to less than 60 points this season and only 1 team has topped 70 points in regulation vs this defense and that was Marquette.  They held a great Duke offense to 68 points which is impressive as the Blue Devils have been held to less than 70 points just twice all season.  George Mason will also come into this home game with a chip on their shoulder after losing their most recent game @ Rhode Island as a favorite after winning 8 of their previous 9 games (only loss @ Duke during that stretch).  On the other side, Richmond will be playing their 2nd straight road game after upsetting UMass on the road as a dog over the weekend.  Nice set up with the host off a loss as a favorite vs the road team off a win as a dog.  That was the Spiders first road win this season (1-4 SU in true road games) and as poor as they’ve been shooting the ball this year, on the road they’ve been abysmal making 38% of their shots and 25% of their triples.  We highly doubt Richmond gets out of the 50’s in this game (they are averaging 53 PPG their last 3 trips to GMU – all losses) while George Mason is averaging 80 PPG at home this season.  Lay it.

#704 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -3.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas is back home off an embarrassing performance at #1 Tennessee on Saturday. They lost that game 76-52 and they were dominated on the boards which led to head coach John Calipari calling out his team’s effort. After that loss, Calipari has individual meetings with each of his players so we expect a huge effort at home to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Razors are undefeated at home this season while Ole Miss has played only 2 true road games all season. The Rebels won @ Louisville in early December when the Cards were decimated by injuries and they lost @ Memphis by 17 10 days ago. Arky has one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 17th in eFG% and inside the arc they make 60% of their shots which is 7th in the country. They are facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside the top 100 defending the 2 point shot. While Arkansas was dominated on the boards vs Tennessee, they should hold their own here vs a Rebel team that isn’t great on the boards (outside the top 170 in offensive and defensive rebounding). The Razorbacks have won 5 straight at home vs Mississippi and we’re getting an unranked home team favored over ranked road team which has been a profitable situation over the years. Lay it with Arkansas.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Nebraska, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Iowa is off their worst loss since February of 2020 losing @ Wisconsin on Friday 116-85. That dropped the Hawkeyes to 1-2 in Big 10 play and this becomes a must win with 2 of their last 3 on the road. Iowa’s offense played quite well in that loss shooting 48% and averaging 1.12 PPP. Not surprising as they rank in the top 10 nationally in FG%, 2 point FG% and PPG on offense. They are also 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency. The defense obviously let them down on Friday night. Wisconsin shot ridiculously well making 65% of their shots overall, 68% from 3 point land (21 of 31) and 88% from the FT line. While Iowa didn’t play well defensively, it was just one of those nights for the Badgers when everything went in. Expect a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court tonight for the Hawks and if their offense continues to play well, this should be a win. Nebraska is coming off a very important home win over UCLA on Saturday which was their 20th straight home win, however the Huskers are simply a different team away from home. They’ve played one Big 10 road game this season and lost by 27 points @ Michigan State and the Huskers have won only 5 of their last 21 conference road games. Iowa has just 1 home loss this season and that was vs #3 Iowa State in a game the Hawkeyes never trailed until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. At home this season Iowa has shot 54% and 41% from deep. They are facing a Nebraska defense that has allowed opponents to score almost 40% of their points from beyond the arc, 12th most in the country. Not a great match up for this Iowa offense at home. The Hawks have an extra day off as well playing on Friday while Nebraska played on Saturday. Carver Hawkeye Arena has been a house of horrors for the Huskers losing 9 of their last 10 there. Huge home game for Iowa and they’ll come with some extra effort / emotion here after their embarrassing loss on Friday while the Huskers could be a bit flat after a big home win on Saturday.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Florida -2.5 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - What a perfect spot to grab Florida. The Gators are coming off their first loss of the season @ Kentucky on Saturday. Now they are favored at home over the only undefeated in the country #1 Tennessee. That number speaks volumes. In their 106-100 loss @ Kentucky, the Gators normally stout defense played very poorly. They allowed the Wildcats to average a ridiculous 1.47 PPP while shooting almost 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. It was by far the worst defensive performance of the season from a Florida team that ranks inside the top 20 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. On a positive note, the Gator offense continued to roll ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency after putting up triple digits and 1.39 PPP on the road vs a very good UK defense. The Vols are off a big home win over Arkansas but they’ve played only 1 true road game since November 9th. That was a 2 point win @ Illinois (a very talented but very young team) and the Illini shot only 29% from the field and 17% from deep in that game and still almost won. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, Tennessee has lost 9 of their 11 games @ Florida including the last 2 where they were favored in both games and lost by double digits. Since the start of last season, the Gators have won 21 of their last 22 home games with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky last year. This season, SEC home teams are 132-3 SU while on the road they are just 15-14 SU. We like Florida to get the win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number.

#844 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Maryland, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We just laid 4.5 points with Oregon on Thursday night at home vs Illinois and it was a terrible pick to say the least. The Ducks were embarrassed 109-77 and we expect a huge bounce back at home on Sunday. As of this writing the line is Oregon -3 so we’re getting some nice value because of that terrible performance as the Illini rank in the top 10 per KenPom and Maryland sits at 26th and the line is lower for this one. The Ducks came into their game on Thursday night with just 1 loss, a 2 point setback to a very good UCLA team. Their defense had been really good prior to Thursday when Illinois went off for 58% from the field and 55% from the arc on a ridiculous 1.40 PPP. You can bet veteran head coach Dana Altman will have his team locked in defensively after that effort. The Ducks have played a very difficult schedule to date (27th SOS) and have some outstanding wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, and San Diego State. Maryland is in a rough situation as they were @ Washington on Thursday night now 72 hours later @ an angry Oregon team. The Terps lost at Washington (the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) by 6 on Thursday and they’ve lost both of their true road games this season. Unlike Oregon, the Terps have played a very easy schedule to date (330th SOS) and they are just 2-3 SU vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. Maryland has won only 3 of their last 17 road games in conference play and while we think they’ll be a solid team this year, this is not the spot. Lay it with Oregon.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -2 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough turnaround for San Francisco who played on the road @ Pacific just 48 hours ago and now they are @ Washington State. The Dons pulled off the 89-81 win @ Pacific but a non-cover as SF was favored by 13 over the Tigers who now have a record of 5-12. The Dons shot lights out hitting 51% of their shots, 45% of their triples and mad 19 of 21 FT’s but were still unable to pull away (final margin of 9 was their largest of the game) from a bad Pacific team. Now they travel to Washington State who is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with all of their wins coming by double digits and they’ve won 21 of their last 23 at home. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country (49.5%) ranking 28th but at home they up that to over 52% from the field while averaging 88 PPG. These 2 have nearly identical records (WSU 12-3 and SF 13-3) but Wazzou has played the tougher schedule at 109th SOS compared to the Dons at 229th. San Fran has played only 2 true road games this season winning @ Pacific as we discussed and losing @ Bradley. The situation heavily favors the home team who rarely loses on their home court. With the small spread, we’ll grab Washington State

#650 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -10.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This sets up nicely situationally with NDSU coming off a rare home loss as a favorite while Nebraska Omaha is on a short 2 day turnaround coming off a road win @ UND as an underdog. We were on NDSU a few nights ago at home vs St Thomas and they lost their first game since November 26th with the Tommies winning 89-85. St Thomas hit 54% of their shots (43% for NDSU) and 47% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. We expect the Bison to come out with some fire at home after that tough loss. Prior to that this North Dakota State team had been destroying opponents at home. Their previous 3 home games were wins by margins of 29, 36, and 34 points with the latter 2 coming vs Western Michigan and Cal State Bakersfield who both rank higher than this Nebraska Omaha team. They’ve been shooting as well as any team in the nation ranking 4th in the country in eFG% and 3rd in 3 point FG% hitting just over 41% and they make nearly 79% of their FTs. That’s bad news for a Nebraska Omaha defense 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG% allowed, and 281st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Bison average 85 PPG at home while UNO gives up 78 PPG on the road so we expect NDSU to have a huge night offensively. Can the Mavericks keep up in this game? We don’t think so. They’re not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 220 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They’ll need to get hot from 3 to stay in this game but that’ll be tough as they make only 33% from deep (162nd nationally) and NDSU defends the arc very well ranking 50th. UNO has averaged just 66 PPG in their 6 road losses this season and we look for an easy with for North Dakota State in this one.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets.

#800 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Illinois, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Illinois makes the long travel to play @ Oregon Thursday night. The Illini have played only 1 true road game this season and they lost @ Northwestern. The other “semi” road game they played was in Birmingham, AL vs the Crimson Tide and Illinois lost that game by double digits. While the Illini are talented, they are very young with a number of freshman and sophomores in their rotation (304th in experience) and we think they’ll struggle at times on the road vs high level teams. That’s what they get here @ Oregon. The Ducks are very good and experienced with 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 8 of their top 9 players in terms of minutes per game are seniors. They are 12-1 on the season, despite playing a really tough schedule (39th SOS), and their lone setback was by 2 points vs a UCLA team that is 11-2. The Ducks have been really good at home winning 21 of their last 25 games in Knight Arena and their average margin of victory at home this season is +19 PPG. The Illini rely heavily on the 3 point shot (58th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc) and getting to the FT line (53rd in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe). Two problems here, that plays right into Oregon’s defensive strengths (24th defending the arc & 60th in points allowed from the FT line. On top of that, Illinois has shot poorly away from home which can be expected from a young team. They have made only 37% of their shots and 26% of their triples in their 1 true road game @ NW. We like the Ducks to win and cover at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON Butler +2.5 over Villanova, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Huge home game here for Butler who has lost 5 straight games and really needs a win here with their next 2 games coming on the road. To put their 5 game losing streak into perspective, 4 of those losses came vs UConn, Marquette, Houston, and Wisconsin who currently have a combined record of 40-11. Their most recent game was a 4 point loss to UConn in a game that went down to the wire. The Bulldogs have faced an extremely difficult schedule to date (33rd SOS) and today’s opponent, Villanova, is rated lower than 7 teams Butler has already played. The Wildcats have played 2 true road games and lost both @ St Joes and @ Creighton. They’ve also played 2 neutral site games and lost those as well so Nova is 0-4 away from home this year. The Bulldogs should have 2 solid offensive advantages in this game. One from beyond the arc and the other at the FT line. Both teams shoot the 3 well (ranked 9th and 20th in 3 point FG%) but Villanova is poor at defending the arc ranking 317th (Butler ranks 70th at defending the 3 point line). The Dogs get to the line A LOT with 26% of their points coming from the stripe (7th best in the nation) while the Wildcats rarely get to the line with just 16% of their points coming from the FT line (312th). Butler has won 4 of their last 5 at home vs Villanova and we look for them to come out on top again Wednesday. Take the points.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Utah State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We went against Nevada on the road on Saturday and picked up a win with Wyoming as a 6 point dog. The Cowboys won the game by 3 points and that puts Nevada in a must win type spot after dropping to 0-2 in the Mountain West. After this game they play their next 2 on the road so this becomes a huge home game for the host. Nevada has actually lost 2 straight so this is a huge game for the Pack. They are catching Utah State in a terrible spot playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off back to back upset wins as underdogs on the road over St Mary’s and San Diego State. In their win on Saturday @ SDSU, the Aggies never led by more than 1 point and trailed for 95% of the game. They made a 3 pointer with 7 seconds left to win 67-66. The Aztecs shot just 38% and only 25% from deep and still led mainly the entire game. Reno is a very tough place to play with Nevada winning 35 of their last 40 home games and they’ve also won 5 of their last 6 at home vs MWC rival Utah State. In their most recent home game, Nevada was -8 vs a solid Colorado State team that isn’t a fully 5+ points worse than CSU on a neutral court which is what this line suggests. This spot screams to take the home team and at this low number, we’ll do just that.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia.

#883 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -4 over Cal Baptist, Monday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for UC Irvine. They are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 70-54 loss @ Duquesne, and they’ve had 10 days to stew about that setback and get ready for this one. UCI is 10-2 on the season and their only other loss was @ Oregon State. The Anteaters have won 2 straight Big West Titles and are favored to win their 3rd this season. They are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency and they are holding opponents FG percentage of 39.4% on the season. In their loss @ Duquesne, the Anteaters allowed the Dukes to hit 49% of their shots and 56% of their triples while allowing 1.17 points per possession, their worst mark of the season. It was just the 3rd time in 12 games this season UCI allowed an opponent to average more than 1.00 PPP. After that subpar performance and more than a week off to make adjustments, we expect UCI to be really focused on the defensive end of the court. They should have plenty of success vs a Cal Baptist team that ranks 255th making just 43.5% of their shots while hitting only 30% of their 3’s (297th). The Cal Baptist Lancers have played an easy slate this far (283rd SOS) yet they have a 7-6 record. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 and tonight they face a UCI team that ranks 69th nationally per KenPom. The Lancers just played on Saturday so a quick turnaround vs an angry, rested team. In their game on Saturday Cal Baptist struggled to a 79-73 home win vs a Jackson State team that is winless on the season (0-13 record). UC Irvine is absolutely the better team in this match up and they are in the better situation as well. We’re getting a cheap line because they are on the road. We’ll take it.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +1 over St Thomas, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Long travel for St Thomas (Minneapolis) and they are a bit overvalued right now having won 6 straight games. 4 of those 6 wins came vs teams that are ranked 285th or lower and their 1 solid road win this year @ Northern Colorado, the Tommies shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. They are 3-3 on the road with their other 2 wins coming vs teams ranked 285th and 322nd. Now they face a top 200 team in the road in UC Riverside. The Highlanders have played a very tough schedule thus far (47th ranked SOS / St Thomas SOS is 250th) yet they still have a solid 8-5 record. UCR is 5-0 at home and should have a little extra motivation here coming off a 66-53 loss @ UNLV a week ago. St Thomas gets very little inside production (301st in percentage of points inside the arc) and they don’t get to the line very often. Thus, they rely very heavily on make 3 point shots which can make life tough on the road especially facing a solid 3 point defense (UCR allows 32% from deep). The Tommie also have a huge Summit League game on deck vs North Dakota State, the best team in the conference, so that game is of more importance. Coming from Minneapolis, they may view this as a bit of a vacation on west coast with warm weather before tipping off conference play on Thursday. Plus being away from home over the holidays may make it extra tough to focus. We’ll take the home team here.

ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Elon -5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Elon has played the more difficult schedule to date (#185 SOS compared to #307 for Marshall), yet they still have the better record at 8-4 (Marshall is 7-6). Elon is also 4-0 at home this year while Marshall is 0-5 on the road. Dating back to last season Marshall has lost 12 straight road games and all but 2 of those have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread (as of Friday evening). The Phoenix have already beaten 3 teams this season ranked higher than Marshall including a solid road win @ Notre Dame. They should have a huge advantage as the FT line in this game as Elon scores over 21% of their points from the stripe (69th nationally) and the Herd fouls a lot with their opponents scoring 25% of their points from the stripe (12th worst nationally). On the other end, we don’t expect Marshall to get many freebies as the disciplined Elon defense fouls very little. On top of that, Marshall is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (28% which is 334th) which makes it very tough to win on the road. Their defense will struggle to keep them in this game as well as they allow over 50% shooting on the road and 81 PPG. Lay it with Elon on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - Looking at the Clippers recent stretch of games we see they were recently a +3-point home dog to Houston, Minnesota and Denver. In the games against the Rockets and Wolves the Clippers were without key pieces as Powell and Harden each missed a game. The Clippers lost both. Prior to those two games, with Powell/Harden they beat the Nuggets at home 126-122. The reason we bring that up is this: The Warriors aren’t as good as those three teams, yet are favored on the road in Los Angeles? Golden State is coming off an emotional Christmas Day loss to the Lakers and slipped to 1-5 SU in their last six games. For the season the Clippers rank 11th in Offensive Efficiency, the Warriors rank 13th. Defensively, the Clippers hold the edge with the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating compared to the Warriors 8th ranking. When we look exclusively at the last 10 games of each team we see the Clippers have the better overall Net Rating of +1.5 compared to the Warriors NR of -6.7. Golden State lives and dies by the 3-pointer (12th in 3PT%), but the Clippers defend the arc as well as anyone in the league allowing 34.3% (4th). The Clippers have won 5 straight in the rivalry including two games this season. We expect them to make it 3 in a row on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This will be the third meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulls winning both clashes thus far. Some bettors might want to back the Hawks with revenge but not us. This is a game where the Hawks have a hard time matching up against the Bulls. Chicago’s two wins against Atlanta have come by 12 and 14-points. Chicago has won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last six. If we look at each teams last five games we find the Bulls have a Net Rating of -4.5 compared to the Hawks NR of -1.5. Chicago has won 3 straight on the road and have a Net scoring differential of -0.5ppg when away from home which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta is 8-7 SU at home this season with the 19th worst average scoring margin of -2.6ppg. As a home favorite the Hawks are 2-7 ATS with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Neither team is good defensively and the Bulls shoot it better at 46.8% overall (10th) and 37% (9th) from deep compared to the Hawks who shoot 46.3% (15th) and 35% (21st). Grab the points and the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are always a tricky team to bet on because you never know if LeBron/AD is going to play or not. LeBron was away from the team recently for unknown reasons, other than the fallout from his Diddy party comments on social media. With the TV lights on LBJ will be in the lineup tonight against the Warriors. Both teams are off losses as the Lakers lost to the Pistons at home, the Warriors lost to the Pacers. Golden State and Los Angeles both have really good results off a loss so that is basically a wash. If we look at the full season stats we see the Warriors have a very slight edge in Offensive Efficiency, and a significant advantage in Defensive Efficiency. If we look at each team's last five games though we see the opposite with the OEFF numbers being about even, but the Lakers defense over the last five games has been outstanding and the Warriors has not. Golden State currently ranks 26th in DEFF over the last 5 games allowing 1.183PPP, the Lakers D has allowed 1.037PPP in that same stretch of games. We can’t trust a Warriors defense that gave up 143+ points in two consecutive games in the past two weeks. As an NBA fan, enjoy what might be the last meaningful game between two future Hall of Famers in LeBron and Steph Curry.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +6 at Denver Nuggets – 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Suns here who last played on Thursday night at home against the Pistons. Phoenix lost that game and the game previous to Indiana, both at home. Kevin Durant certainly did everything in his power to carry this Suns team with 37pts, 10rebs and 6ass against the Pacers and 43pts, 5rebs and 6ass against the Pistons. Phoenix is a respectable 5-7 SU on the road this season. Denver is coming off a game Sunday at New Orleans and played two other road games at the Kings and Blazers prior to that game. Denver has been very good off a loss since the start of last season with a 13-4 SU record and an average MOV of +6.5ppg. Phoenix though is 20-6 SU since the start of last year with an average+/- of +7.7ppg. Phoenix has certainly underachieved this season, but the same can be said about the Nuggets. Denver has a Net rating of +2.4 while the Suns are -0.9. The Suns beat this Nuggets team two out of three meetings last season with both wins coming in Denver. KD will keep the Suns in that entire game and cover the spread in the process.

#867 ASA PLAY ON College of Charleston +2.5 over Loyola Chicago, Monday at 5:30 PM ET - Both of these teams lost yesterday in their opening games of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu. Much different circumstances however as Loyola was a 6.5 point favorite and lost to Oakland who has a current record of 4-7 and their only lead in that game was 2-0. C of C lost as a dog to a very good Oregon State team making only 6 of 24 three point shots (24%) when on the season they’ve hit 36% from deep (81st nationally). Loyola will have a tougher time in this back to back situation as they are without 3 starters which has drastically thinned their bench. Those 3 players account for nearly 30 PPG, 10 RPG, and 7 APG and each average over 20 minutes per game. When healthy, the Ramblers won their first 8 games, but since the injuries to 3 key players, they have lost 2 of their last 3 with their only win in that stretch coming vs Canisius who is 0-13 and ranked 357th. Even in that win, Loyola didn’t really dominate a bad team winning by 12 at home. The Cougars have played the much tougher schedule (102nd SOS compared to 361st for Loyola) but still have a solid 8-3 record with top 100 wins over St Joes and FAU. The Ramblers have only played 1 team in the top 100 and lost that game by double digits vs San Francisco. If this one is tight, it could be won or lost from the FT line and C of C hits 76% of their freebies compared to 64% from Loyola. Tough spot for an undermanned Rambler team playing their second game in 24 hours. We’ll take the points.

#753 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -3 over Missouri, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Missouri is 10-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking 361st in SOS out of 364 teams.  They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams all season and the Tigers have also played 10 straight home games.  Their only game away from home was a loss @ Memphis to start the season.  7 of their 11 opponents this season currently rank 255th or lower.  Illinois is 7-3 on the year but they’ve faced the 71st most difficult schedule to date with their losses coming vs Bama & Tennessee (2 top 10 teams) and @ Northwestern in OT in a game the Illini led by double digits in the 2nd half.  Their most recent game was a 66-64 home loss vs #1 Tennessee losing a layup as time expired by the Vols.  The Illini have had a full week to get over that tough loss and get ready for this game.  These 2 rank nearly identical in offensive efficiency yet Illinois is far better on the defensive end (12th in defensive efficiency to 103rd for Mizzou) despite playing the much tougher schedule as we referenced earlier.  Illinois is also the much better rebounding team and they keep opponents off the foul line which is where Mizzou has lived thus far ranking 25th in percentage of points from the FT line.  This game is played on a neutral site in St Louis and last season Illinois throttled Missouri by 24 points.  The Illini are still a top 20 team (per KenPom) and while the Tigers have improved, they were 8-24 last year so how much have they improved?  It’s really hard to tell as they’ve been at home all season and only played a few good teams.  We’ll lay the small number with the team we know is solid, that’s Illinois.

ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in a row. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 17 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. The Jazz turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the NBA. There were clearly some issues in the Nets locker room with Denis Schroeder on the roster. As soon as he was traded the Nets went on the road and beat Toronto in their most recent game. Cam Johnson has elevated his game as he tries to improve his draft stock and get out of Brooklyn. Johnson is coming off a 33 point, 10 rebound and 6 assists against the Raptors. Brooklyn has some horrible home losses in recent weeks, but they have come against: Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orlando twice and Boston. Those are 4 top teams in the East. Utah has just 4 road wins on the season and are coming off an upset in Detroit. We like the Nets here.

#708 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -8.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - OSU will be shorthanded here with starting PG Johnson out. The Buckeyes are 7-4 on the season and they’ve been poor when stepping up in competition. They’ve faced 4 teams this season ranked in the top 35 (per KenPom) and they’ve lost those games by 38, 24, 14, and 1 point (1 point loss was AT HOME vs Pitt). The Buckeyes have had a rough go offensive away from home (road or neutral) averaging just 64 PPG including getting held under 60 points twice. That’s a huge difference compared to their home splits where they average 90 PPG on the season. 5 of OSU’s 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200 all but 1 of their 7 wins have come at home. Kentucky has 1 loss on the season @ Clemson and they have 4 top 100 wins including topping Duke and Gonzaga, 2 top 6 teams per KenPom. They Buckeye offense relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (almost 35% of their points come from deep) but they are facing a Wildcat defense that ranks 12th nationally defending the arc allowing only 27%. The Kentucky defense has allowed opponents to make only 39% of their shot this year so we expect OSU to have problems on offense. Offensively the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring at 91 PPG and they rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency. OSU’s defense has allowed 83 PPG vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. We don’t think the Buckeyes can keep up offensively here. Lay it with Kentucky.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -3 over Northern Iowa, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Washington State has the better record (9-3 compared to 7-4 for UNI) and they’ve played the much tougher slate thus far. Wazzou’s strength of schedule is ranked 84th while Northern Iowa has played the 258th ranked SOS so far. This line is lower than it should be according to our power ratings and that’s because UNI has won 4 straight games in blowout fashion vs teams ranked 205th, 353rd, 303rd, and 213th. The Panthers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100 and 6 of their 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Washington State’s 3 losses this season have all come vs teams inside the top 100 (Iowa, SMU, and Washington). The Cougars are coming off a loss @ Washington on Wednesday giving them a little extra motivation here. Unlike UNI, the Cougars have already beaten 3 top 100 teams including Boise State on the road, Nevada on the road, and Bradley at home. Northern Iowa has done most of their damage at home but on the road (away or neutral) they are just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming vs Illinois Chicago. The Panthers lead the nation in FG% and they are #2 in 3 point FG% hitting at numbers that are not sustainable. Their 4 game winning streak has come vs poor opponents that all rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Washington State defense that ranks 87th in that category. We like Wazzou to cover this small number in Las Vegas on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Utah Tech +2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - South Dakota steps into this game with a 9-4 record facing a 3-10 Utah Tech team and yet the Coyotes are only favored by 2.5 (opening line)? Looks pretty easy to grab South Dakota here but we’re on Utah Tech. The Coyotes record has been partly a product of their schedule. They’ve faced the 316th most difficult slate this season with 8 of their 13 games coming at home. On the road, this team is just 1-4 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Western Michigan (3-7 current record) by 4 points in a game WMU shot 18% from 3 and took 10 fewer FT attempts. Going back further, this South Dakota team has simply been terrible on the road winning just 5 of their last 32 dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Tough to consider them when favored on the road. On top of that, laying points on the road with a terrible defense is not ideal. The Coyotes 349th in defensive efficiency (out of 364 teams) and they rank 328th defending the arc. Tough to win on the road this those numbers on the defensive end. Utah Tech as a bad record but they’ve also faced the 67th most difficult schedule which is a huge jump from what South Dakota has faced. They’ve also only played 4 homes games and 9 road games this season. One of their top players, Beon Riley (14 PPG & 8 RPG) has missed the last few games and they are thinking they’ll have him back here. We’ll take the points here and call for Utah Tech to win this one outright.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team.

#706 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over VCU, Thursday at 9 PM ET - VCU is 9-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the easier schedules on the country (301st SOS per KenPom).  They’ve faced on only 2 top 100 teams this season (1-1 record) and 8 of their 9 wins have come vs teams that rank 150th or lower.  On top of that, this is their first true road game of the season as they head to the Pit, one of the tougher places to play in the country.  New Mexico hasn’t left home this entire month while VCU played in Vegas on Saturday vs Colorado State and now travel to Albuquerque for this one.  The Lobos have played the more difficult schedule to date and have already beaten 2 top 100 teams (UCLA and USC both on neutral courts).  VCU’s defensive numbers for the season are solid, however, they’ve faced only 2 top 100 offense (efficiency) so far this season and they split those 2 games beating Miami FL and losing to Nevada.  Tonight they face a potent New Mexico offense that is averaging nearly 90 PPG (8th best scoring offense in the nation).  VCU thrives at turning teams over leading to extra possessions but New Mexico has done a very good job at protecting the ball (70th in offensive turnover rate) so that may not work tonight on the road.  The Lobos have won 19 of their last 23 home games and this is a huge game for them with 3 of their next 4 coming on the road.  Lay the small spread with New Mexico.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ohio St -21.5 over Valparaiso, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - OSU will be looking to smack someone here after getting blasted by Auburn 91-53 on Saturday in Atlanta. The Bucks have shown good bounce back ability when facing inferior opponents this year. Prior to their loss on Saturday, they were twice beaten by double digits on the road this season @ Texas A&M and @ Maryland and turned around the next game and beat Evansville by 30 and Rutgers by 14. OSU has also shown this season that when tabbed a big favorite, they have no problem burying teams. They have been a chalk of -19 or higher 4 times this season and covered all 4 by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were favored by anywhere from -19 to -25 in those 4 games and the average final score in those blowout wins was 92-51. Valpo has a 5-4 record on the season but they’ve faced the 342nd most difficult schedule per KenPom. Their only true road game was a 19 point loss @ DePaul in a game they trailed by 25 with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Crusaders have faced only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 200 (both losses) and OSU is the best team they’ve played this year by a wide margin. The Buckeyes rank inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive eFG% while Valpo ranks outside the top 285 in both those statistics despite facing one of the easier schedules in the country. OSU’s losses have come all vs top 30 teams (Auburn, Maryland, Pitt, and Texas A&M) and Valparaiso has been terrible on the road winning just once in their last 19 true roadies. This has blowout written all over it.

#607 ASA PLAY ON Clemson -2.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Clemson has the better record in this one despite playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers are 9-2 on the season and they’ve faced the 75th most difficult schedule to date.  Their losses have come @ Boise State and in OT on Saturday vs Memphis.   The Tigers have wins over Kentucky, Penn State, and Miami FL (all top 100 teams).  The Gamecocks are 7-3 but they’ve faced the 261st most difficult slate thus far.  They don’t have a win vs anyone in the top 140 and in their 2 games vs top 100 teams, they lost both by 16 vs Indiana and by 9 vs Xavier, both rated lower than this Clemson team.  South Carolina also already has a home loss vs North Florida who was the highest rated team they’ve faced at home thus far.  The Tigers have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they are the much better rebounding team.  If this one is tight late, FT’s could be key in who wins this one and Clemson shoots 74% from the stripe compared to 66% for South Carolina.  Clemson has won 5 of the last 7 in this in-state rivalry including 2 of the last 3 @ South Carolina.  The Tigers should play with a little extra edge here coming off their OT loss vs a very good Memphis team who had wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Missouri prior to squeaking one out on Saturday @ Clemson.  We like the Tigers laying the small number. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright.

#704 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UWGB making the long travel to the west coast after getting rolled at home by rival UW Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Phoenix lost that game by 19 points but it wasn’t that close was UWM led by 29 with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. New head coach Doug Gottlieb is struggling in his first year ever coaching CBB with a 2-9 overall record and 6 straight losses. Their 2 wins came vs Western Illinois (ranked 325th) and SIUE (ranked 259th) with their most recent win coming nearly a month ago. The Phoenix are a terrible defensive team ranking outside the top 330 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and PPG allowed. They have given up more than 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Not a great match up here for that terrible defense facing a UCSB team that ranks 13th in eFG%, 24th in 3 point FG%, and 31st in 2 point FG%. The Gauchos are also stout on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 38% which is the 18th best mark in the nation. UCSB should get plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive end as UWGB is a terrible rebounding team on both ends. The Phoenix are also working through some locker room issues as their leading scorer was benched 2 games ago for not showing up to a pre-game shoot around. UCSB rolls in this one.

ASA NBA play on MILWAUKEE BUCKS -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee with the Hawks prevailing 119-104. The Bucks were playing the second night of a back-to-back after clinching a Cup spot the night before against the Pistons. Milwaukee was also without Khris Middleton who is now back in the lineup after missing most of the season with an injury. Both teams are on a heater right now with the Hawks winning 7 of their last ten and the Bucks going 8-2 SU their last ten. If we compare Net Ratings over that 10-game stretch, we see the Bucks have the better overall number of +6.3 compared to the Hawks +1.1. The Hawks have a couple of budding stars on their roster with Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, but the Bucks have more established, veteran SuperStars with Lillard and Giannis. The Hawks are getting a ton of public action, and the pros keep buying the Bucks. I’m on the side of the pros here with Milwaukee in a quick revenge match up on a neutral court in Vegas.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here.

#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here.

#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -9.5 vs Detroit Pistons, 7:40PM ET - The young Pistons have been competitive this season as an underdog with a 5-3-1 ATS record and an average differential of minus -2.2ppg. The Knicks though have been crushing teams of late with an overall 6-3-1 ATS record as a home favorite this season +15.2ppg. New York's last five home games have been decided by +24, +15, +33, +28 and +10-points. They have been double-digit chalks in 5 straight home games and are 4-0-1 ATS in that stretch. This Detroit team is heading in the right direction, but they’ve just played two similar opponents to the Knicks in the Bucks and Celtics. They lost by 19 at home to Milwaukee in a must win NBA Cup playoff game, then lost to the Celtics by 10-points in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Detroit made 20 3-pointers against the Celtics and shot 51% from Deep. Do not expect the Pistons to have another great shooting night like they did against the C’s as they are a 35.8% 3PT shooting team on the season with an average of 13.1 makes per game. New York has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this entire season, shooting a hair under 50% as a team which is 2nd best in the league. They have the best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.223-points per possession. Defensively the Knicks uncharacteristically rank 17th in DEFF for the season but in their last five games we are starting to see the Knicks D show up. In their most recent 5 games the Knicks have the 4th best DEFF allowing just 1.071PPP. Watch for the starting lineups in this game as Brunson is listed as questionable. Either way we like the Knicks by more than 10-points.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern.