#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -5.5 at Miami Heat, 8pm ET - The Houston Rockets are a solid bet against the struggling Miami Heat tonight in South Beach. Houston is riding an eight-game winning streak, seven by 7+ points, while Miami has dropped nine straight, with six of those losses coming by five or more points. The Rockets’ season-long Net Rating of +4.7 far outpaces the Heat’s -1.9, and the gap widens when looking at the last 10 games—Houston ranks 5th with a +9.0 Net Rating, while Miami sits at 27th with a -9.1. Houston’s elite defense, ranking 4th in field goal percentage allowed and 8th in Defensive Efficiency, should stifle a slumping Heat offense that ranks 21st in FG% overall, 17th in 3PT% and has the worst Efficiency rating in the league over their last 5-games.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - UVA began the ACC season with a 1-6 record and they’ve since gone 6-5 to pull into a tie with FSU and Pitt with a 7-11 conference mark. FSU is headed in the other direction losing 8 of their last 11 games with a lame duck (retiring at the end of the season) coach Leonard Hamilton and they’ve played below their expected efficiency in 4 of their last 5 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Cavs are the much better 3 point shooting team ranking in the top 25 nationally at almost 38% while FSU struggles from deep (280th nationally). They make an average of only 6 triples per game which ranks 327th and on the road they make closer to 5 per game. Adding fuel to the fire, the Noles are a poor 3 point defensive team ranking 12th in ACC games giving up almost 37% from deep. Needless to say, we expect the home team to have a big advantage from beyond the arc in this game. The Noles are just 2-8 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming @ Miami, the worst team in the ACC. Their other win came by 2 points @ Wake Forest in a game they trailed by 16 points with just 8:00 remaining and outscored the Deacs 28-9 from that point on. FSU wants to play fast and when they’ve faced the slowest paced teams in the ACC and forced them to play in a half court game, they haven’t done well. There are 5 teams in the conference that rank 250th or lower nationally in adjusted tempo (UVA, Clemson, NC State, Va Tech, and Notre Dame) and FSU has a record of 1-4 SU in those games. UVA is one of the slowest teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and they will force the Seminoles to play at a pace they do not like. If this is close late, the Cavs have made nearly 78% of their FT’s in ACC play. It’s their final home game of the season and we expect a huge effort from UVA. Not so sure about FSU on the road. Lay it.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

#628 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -9 over Miami, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Tech should have a huge motivation edge in this game as they played their final home tilt of the season and they are fighting to stay in 8th place to avoid the first day games (seeds 10 thru 15 play the first day).  A win tonight would give the Yellow Jackets their 10th ACC win for the first time in the last 4 seasons.  They have 13 home wins and have won 5 in a row at home.  They’re coming off a 87-62 win here over the weekend vs NC State and they’ve easily handled the lowest rated teams in the conference here at home.  The 5 lowest rated teams in the league are Miami, NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse and GT is 3-0 at home vs that grouping winning by an average margin of +18 PPG.  Keep in mind Miami is the worst of all of those teams.  On the other side of the court, Miami was just eliminated from the ACC tourney with their blowout loss @ UNC over the weekend so they have nothing to play for.  The Canes have been terrible all season (2-16 ACC record) and if they decide to bring the intensity for one final game, our guess would be it is this weekend when they host NC State and have a chance to end the season with a home win.  The Canes are 0-9 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG.  Their defense has been atrocious ranking 363rd in opponent FG% and 364th defending the arc and that’s out of 364 D1 teams.  Miami has to be distracted with interim coach Bill Courtney gone after these final 2 games and rumors swirling about who will be the next head coach (sounds like Duke assistant Jai Lucas has the inside track).  They may also be without starting C Kidd (12 PPG and 7 RPG) who has an injured ankle and missed their game over the weekend.  The Canes are 9-20 ATS and this one has blowout potential.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - This is the Beavers final home game of the season which should bring some extra motivation to this contest. Not that extra motivation is needed as a loss @ USF earlier in this season will take care of that. In the first match up, the Dons won at home 81-70 as a -4.5 point favorite. The box score for San Francisco was ridiculous as they shot 60% overall for the game and 59% from beyond the arc hitting 13 of 22. They’ll have a tough time getting anywhere near those numbers tonight as USF shoots just 41% on the road and 32% from deep barely averaging 1.00 PPP. Along with the Dons hitting everything in sight in the first meeting, OSU was just 1 of 9 from beyond the arc (11%) so they were outscored by a whopping 36 points from beyond the arc and lost by only 11 points on the road. At home, OSU has been outstanding offensively hitting 51% of their shots, 40% of their 3’s and averaging 1.18 PPP which is top 30 in the nation (for home teams). The Beavers poor offensive numbers from the first meeting should rise dramatically at home tonight. The one thing OSU did have an advantage on offense in that meeting was at the FT line where they made 21 to USF’s 14. We anticipate the Beavs will have an advantage again tonight as they get to the FT line more than any team in the WCC (percentage of points from the FT line) while USF sends opponents to the line more than any team in the conference. When Oregon State gets there, they make 80% in WCC play. They are 15-2 at home (14-2 ATS) with their only losses coming vs Oregon (by 3 points) and St Mary’s who already clinched the WCC Title. San Franciso has a losing road record (4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS) and a negative point differential away from home on the season. This number is too small and we’ll take advantage of the value with the home team. Take Oregon State.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over BYU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Great spot for ASU to pull the upset here. The Devils had lost 6 in a row, including 3 vs top 12 teams (KenPom) and they finally picked up some momentum with a solid 12 point win @ Kansas State over the weekend. Because of their losing streak, we’re still getting some value here despite the solid road win. BYU recently played @ WVU and @ Cincinnati and the Cougs were 2 point dogs in those 2 games vs teams that rate almost identical to Arizona State but now they’re laying 4 on the road in this game (opening number). It’s a terrible spot for BYU playing their 2nd straight road game after pulling off a big upset @ Arizona late on Saturday night. It was a crazy, controversial ending with BYU getting fouled with just 3 seconds remaining and hitting both FT’s to win by 96-95. The Cougars went crazy on the offensive end hitting 55% overall and 45% of their 3’s (made 13 triples). They also averaged a ridiculous 1.37 PPP, this from a BYU team that is averaging 1.06 PPP on the road this season. Defensively they continued to struggle allowing 1.36 PPP and 54% from the field for Arizona. Not all that surprising as BYU allows opponents to hit nearly 50% and 40% from 3 away from home. They rank 11th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 3 point FG% allowed. BYU has a losing road record (4-5) and they are getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG. Not only do they have a negative point differential on the road, they also have a negative PPP differential (efficiency) and a negative FG% and 3 point FG% differential. We think ASU has a great shot to pull this upset. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Pacers and fade the Raptors. Toronto is coming off a big game on Tuesday against the World Champion Celtics. Indiana is at home and coming off a home loss on Monday to the Nuggets. The Pacers have also lost to the Raptors twice this season so they will be more focused than usual to face Toronto. The Raps are 6-4 ATS when playing without rest this season but they have a negative differential of minus -9.0ppg. Indiana is 8-4 SU their last twelve games overall, 8-3 SU their last eleven at home with the losses coming to Denver, New York and Cleveland. In their last seven home games the Pacers have an average +/- of +6.0ppg. Toronto doesn’t have the offensive capability to keep up in this game as the Pacers are 4th in FG% at 48.9%, 11th in 3PT% and have the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating compared to the Raptors who rank 26th. Indiana isn’t great defensively on the season, but they have better efficiency numbers than the Raptors. We like the Pacers to bounce back with a big home win Wednesday.

#631 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech +9 over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Pitt isn’t playing well enough to be nearly a double digit favorite in this game.  They have won just 4 of their last 13 games and none of those wins have come by more than 11 points and that 11 point win came at home vs Syracuse who is rated as the 3rd worst team in the ACC.  They rank 357th in Haslam Metrics Momentum category (out of 364 teams) solidifying how poor they’ve been playing as of late.  The Panthers are just 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in conference play losing 3 of those games outright and they’ve already lost 6 games SU as a chalk this season.  They are ranked 74th nationally per Bart Torvik metrics however since mid January the Panthers are ranked just 131st (14th in the ACC during that stretch) while Georgia Tech is in the top 100 during that time.  During that stretch since mid January Pitt ranks 97th in offensive efficiency, 193rd in defensive efficiency, and 356th defending the 3 point shot.  Tech has won 4 of their last 6 games including topping 2 of the ACC’s best teams, Clemson & Louisville.  The Jackets defense has been very good all season ranking in the top 85 and this month they rank 58th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve done a great job of not fouling ranking #1 in the ACC in opponents percentage of points from the FT line.  We think Tech keeps this game very close and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +3.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Heels have won 3 straight which may look to some like they are surging but those wins came vs Syracuse, NC State, and UVA, all ranked outside the top 100 and 2 of those wins were at home. Their 1 road win during that stretch came by 6 points @ Syracuse (5-11 record in conference play) in a game they outscored the Orange by 27 points from beyond the arc and it was still a down to the wire (2 point game with 40 seconds remaining). Despite that road win vs one of the ACC’s lowest rated teams, the Heels have been poor away from home. They are 0-7-1 ATS away from home this year and lost 4 in a row SU on the road before beating the Cuse. UNC has a losing record on the road and they are getting outscored by 4 PPG away from home. Offensively the Tar Heels average 1.15 PPP (efficiency) at home and that drops to 1.04 on the road. Defensively they allow just 0.96 PPP at home but that jump drastically to 1.09 PPP on the road. FSU has won 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 losses during that stretch coming vs Louisville and Clemson, 2 of the top 3 rated teams on the ACC. Their 8 points loss @ Louisville on Saturday (easy cover for FSU) was fairly impressive to be honest as they were -26 points in that game from the 3 point line and FT line combined and still kept it close vs a very good team on the road. The Noles are 10-4 at home this season with a +7 PPG margin. While UNC’s numbers fall off on the road, FSU’s are much better at home especially on defense where they allow just 0.94 PPP which is the 3rd best mark in the conference. The Noles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and are top 25 in block shot percentage and top 55 in creating turnovers (defensive turnover percentage). We think FSU has a great shot to pull the upset here (not even sure it’s an upset if they do). Take the points.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

#858 ASA PLAY ON UCF -2.5 over Utah, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We’re absolutely catch UCF at the bottom of the market after they have lost 7 straight games. We’re also catching Utah off 2 huge home wins over Kansas & Kansas State and now going on the road where they’ve been terrible this season. This isn’t just any road game as the Utes make their furthest trek of the season (over 2,300 miles) to Orlando. Utah is 1-6 SU on the road this season and they are losing those games by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 39% on the road while hitting only 28% of their triples and averaging a paltry 61 PPG on only 0.932 PPP. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with a UCF offense that averages 79 PPG on the season. While the Golden Knights have been in a funk, they are 10-5 at home and all 5 of those losses have come vs teams that rank at least 20 spots higher than Utah per KenPom including high level opponents Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Iowa State. UCF has played the most difficult strength of schedule in league play while Utah has faced the 11th most difficult slate yet still has a losing record in the Big 12. If this game was played a month ago, we’d be looking at UCF laying 2 or 3 more points. We like them to break their losing streak at home on Sunday afternoon.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Razors are coming off 2 tight road losses vs top 10 teams losing at Auburn by 7 and @ Texas A&M by 8. They had won 3 of 4 prior to that and Arkansas is now in must win mode at home as they sit squarely on the bubble. This is their final regular season “statement” type game for the NCAA tournament committee as their 4 remaining conference games are vs Texas, South Carolina, Vandy, and Mississippi State all ranked outside the top 25 per KenPom. Head coach John Calipari has already said that every game from here on out is a tournament game for his team. They catch Missouri in a huge letdown spot after they upset Bama at home on Wednesday. They caught the Tide in a letdown spot as Alabama was coming off a home loss vs Auburn when the two rivals were ranked #1 and #2 in the AP Poll. On top of that, the Tigers already beat Arkansas handily at home by 18 points so another reason to possibly overlook this game. That first meeting @ Missouri was the Razors 5th consecutive loss as they were playing as poorly as they have all season. However, since that loss, the Razorbacks have been playing much better topping their projected efficiency and 6 of their last 8 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Tigers really thrive on making 3’s and getting to the FT line with very little coming inside the arc (325th nationally in percentage of points from 2 point land). The Arkansas defense matches up nicely in that regard as they keep opponents off the FT line and defend the arc very well (37th nationally). This one has upset written all over it. We’ll take the points with Arkansas.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Portland State -2.5 over Weber State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Weber State has been playing terrible basketball since losing 2 key senior starters in the last month. They lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer and they have won only 2 of their last 11 games and after losing their 2 key seniors, the Wildcats are playing more underclassmen than any other team in the Big Sky. It’s not as if they’ve had a home court advantage this season with just a 1-6 SU record at home in conference play and 1-9 overall at home vs D1 opponents. Their one win came by 4 points vs Northern Arizona who is 6-9 in conference play. The Wildcats have the worst defense in the Big Sky allowing 1.13 PPP and today they are facing a Portland State team that has the best defense in the conference allowing 0.99 PPP in Big Sky games. PSU ranks #1 defensively in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and defensive turnover rate. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Idaho State on Thursday but still sit in 3rd place in the conference despite playing the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in the league. They have been solid on the road with 5 wins which is more wins than Weber has at home. These 2 met already this season and PSU rolled to an easy 74-56 win dominating the glass (+13 boards) while holding Weber St to just 0.86 PPP and 35% from the field. Not only that, the PSU defense did that when Weber was a full strength prior to their 2 key injuries. The Vikings averaged 1.14 PPP on 49% shooting and that success should continue on offense. They rank 31st nationally hitting 48% of their shots and facing a Weber State defense outside the top 300 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. This line is light as it factors in the Wildcats playing at home where they haven’t been winning. We’ll take the much better team laying this small number.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.

#885 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +3.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - Huge game in Michigan on Friday as the Wolverines sit in first place in the Big 10, a half game ahead of Sparty. The Wolverines have been extremely fortunate with 9 of their 12 Big 10 wins coming by 4 points or less. Their last 7 wins have come by margins of 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, and 3 points with 4 of those 7 wins coming vs teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference. We think their tight game luck runs out tonight. Despite being just behind the Wolverines in 2nd place, MSU is the better team. If we look at Big 10 games, the Spartans are more efficient offensively (3rd in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan), more efficient defensively (1st in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan) and they rank #1 in offensive rebounding, FT% (80%), percentage of points from the FT line, eFG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. Michigan State has been a dog just 5 times this season and they are 3-1-1 ATS in that role winning those 3 games outright. They have a very solid 16-9-1 ATS record on the season. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone 7 straight games without covering as a favorite and they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in conference play. The one thing MSU does not do well is shoot the 3 but they shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage in this one as Michigan ranks only 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG% and they are facing MSU’s defense who ranks #1 defending the arc. This one should be tight so we’ll grab the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7pm ET - Memphis is 7-3 SU their last ten games, with the three losses coming at the Clippers, vs. OKC and at New York. In that 10-game stretch prior to the All-Star break the Grizzlies had the 9th best Net differential in the NBA at +4.4. Indiana is 14th in NR in their last ten games at 1.0. These two teams are very similar offensively with the Grizzlies ranking 5th in FG% shooting at 48.6%. The Pacers have similar numbers at 48.8% which ranks 4th. Memphis is 6th in 3PT%, the Pacers are 11th. On the season the Grizz rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.186-points per possession while the Pacers rank 9th at 1.157PPP. The big difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. Memphis ranks 7th in DEFF allowing 1.113PPP, the Pacers rank 22nd allowing 1.153PPP. Memphis allows the 3rd lowest FG% in the league overall and has the 5th best 3PT% D. Indiana ranks 20th in opponents FG%, 12th in 3PT% defense. No team in the NBA has had a better record since the start of last season than Memphis when playing non-conference games. The Grizzlies are 34-17 ATS or 66.7% against the East since the start of the 2023-24 season. Indiana has a 23-25-2 ATS record against the West in that same time frame. Take Memphis is this one.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Elon +2 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Elon is 7-7 in the CAA yet opened up as favored over first place Towson who is 13-1? That line is telling you who you should side with here. Elon’s most recent home game was an embarrassing loss to NC A&T which gave the last place Aggies their only conference win of the season thus far. The Phoenix bounced back nicely after that terrible loss topping the highest rated team in the CAA (UNC Wilmington) 81-70 on the road on Saturday. Now they get a chance to redeem that home loss vs the first place team in the conference. It’s a nice match up for Elon as their defense has been lights out ranking 16th nationally in FG% allowed (39%) and 45th in the country allowing just 31% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Towson offense that shoots just 41% on the season (340th in the country) while scoring only 68 PPG (307th). The Tigers have 1 loss in conference play but they’ve been quite fortunate winning a number of very tight games. In fact, their record in CAA games decided by 7 points or less or in OT is a perfect 9-0 and overall for the season in that role (all games) they are 13-3 in that situation. This team has won 12 straight, many were decided in the final few minutes, and they are due for a loss. This is not a great match up for Towson and we think they go down here. The Phoenix have the 2nd best spread mark in the CAA at 15-9 ATS and we like them to get it done at home tonight.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +12.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re absolutely catching value on Washington State here as we get them at the bottom of their market so to speak. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games which has driven this line quite a bit higher than in should be in our opinion. 5 of those 6 losses during that stretch for the Cougars came on the road and their 1 home loss was by 5 vs a very good St Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga already this year. To give you an idea of the line value, in that loss vs St Mary’s the Cougars were +6 at and now plus more than double that vs a Gonzaga team that lost by 4 vs the Gaels. Along with that, Gonzaga has been overvalued by the oddsmakers all year with a 10-17 ATS record. Wazzu is 9-2 at home (losses by 1 and 5 points) this season and their home splits are much better than their road numbers. They already rank 12th nationally hitting almost 49% of their shots overall, but at home that number jumps to 52% and they average 88 PPG in Beasley Coliseum, which is by the way sold out for this game. We feel it’s going to be difficult for the Zags to pull away from this really solid offensive team. 5 of Gonzaga’s 7 losses have come away from home (road or neutral) and in the first meeting with Washington State this year, the Zags were favored by 17 at home and won by 13. Now they are laying close to the same number on the road. In that first meeting Wazzu played without starter Watts (13 PPG) and he is now back and healthy. In that win, Gonzaga shot 56%, made 48% of their 3’s and made 7 more FT’s. Also, keep in mind that the Zags have a look ahead game on Saturday with St Mary’s who beat them a few weeks ago. We think Washington State brings everything they have in this game and it stays closer than most think. Take the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota State -6.5 over North Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota State has been unbeatable at home this year with a 12-0 SU record (7-2 ATS) and all but one of those wins has come by double digits.  They just faced the 2 teams currently battling them for 1st place in the Summit League, Omaha and St Thomas, and beat those 2 teams by 13 and 16 points respectively.  The Jackrabbits are shooting 53% overall at home, 39% from deep, and winning by an average score of 90-69.  While SDSU just easily took care of Omaha and St Thomas, North Dakota State is 0-5 SU vs those 3 teams (including SDSU) who sit in the top 3 spots in the conference.  The Jackrabbits already beat North Dakota State by 10 on the road this season limiting the Bison to just 7 of 30 (23%) from beyond the arc.  Not a huge surprise as South Dakota State is the #1 team in the Summit defending the arc.  NDSU is a team that relies more than any other team in the country on scoring from beyond the arc and if they aren’t hitting from deep they are in trouble.  While the Bison may struggle offensively here, don’t expect SDSU to have any problems on that end of the court.  NDSU ranks outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and they are allowing 78 PPG away from home.  The Bison simply aren’t playing well right now as they faced the 2 worst teams in the Summit at home last Thursday and Saturday (Denver & Oral Roberts – both ranked outside the top 300) and went to OT with both (ultimately winning 2 tight games).  We like South Dakota State to get another double digit home win tonight.

#615 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3.5 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue off a bad home outing vs Wisconsin and Michigan State off an upset win @ Illinois. We really like this situation for the Boilers. Their 10 point home loss on Saturday vs a red hot Wisconsin team was a game where the Badgers simply couldn’t miss hitting 62% of their shots overall and 40% of their triples. The Boilers, who thrive on creating turnovers (#1 in the Big 10) only forced 3 turnovers by the Badgers. Deadly shooting and almost no giveaways led the Badgers to that win on the road. Purdue’s other 2 Big 10 losses went to the wire losing by 3 vs OSU and by 2 vs Michigan. The Spartans shouldn’t be able to exploit the Boilers from deep as they are simply not a good 3 point shooting team as they rank 353rd nationally making only 29% of their triples this season (350th in made 3’s per game). They also turn the ball over a lot (15th in the Big 10 with a 17% turnover percentage) so that also plays directly into the Boilers defensive strength of creating giveaways. PU should have a big advantage from deep ranking 26th nationally hitting 38% of their 3 balls. While they are off an upset win @ Illinois, the Spartans have cooled off drastically after their 9-0 start to the conference season losing 3 of their last 5 games including a setback at home vs Indiana, the Hoosiers only win in their last 7 games. We like looking for really solid teams off bad performances and that’s what we’re getting here with Purdue. Not only that, they are underdogs so we have some cushion here. We like Purdue to keep this very close and have a shot on the road win (5-2 SU on the road in the Big 10 this season).

#306545 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -3.5 over Eastern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Lipscomb sits in 1st place in the Atlantic Sun and they are easily the best team in the league ranking 86th nationally per KenPom.  No other team in that conference ranks above 114th.  We’re getting the best team in the league with some extra motivation as they lost at home vs EKU just a few weeks ago.  In that game the Bisons shot only 39% which is well below their season average of 48% in league play which ranks them #1 in the conference.  EKU ranks 9th defensively in the ASun in FG% allowed at 46% so it’s not as if they are a lock down defensive team.  It was just one of those games for the Lipscomb offense.  Speaking of #1, here are the stats that Lipscomb leads the Asun in…FG%, scoring margin (+12.4 PPG), defensive FG%, defensive 3 point FG%, defensive scoring (allowing 67 PPG), and defensive rebounding.  8 of their 11 conference wins have come by double digits and none by less than 5 points.  On the road this team has only lost once in league play vs Northern Alabama who is tied with Lipscomb for 1st place in the conference.  The Bison were favored by 9.5 in their loss vs EKU and now we’re getting them at a low number because they are on the road.  Great value as this team is outstanding on the road and EKU doesn’t  have a great home court advantage (already 3 home losses this season).  All 3 of those losses came vs teams ranked 112th or lower, well below this Lipscomb team.  EKU is 10-4 in the conference but they rank middle of the pack in the league (5th per KenPom) and they have a negative FG% differential and 3 point FG% differential in conference games.  Lipscomb is the much better team and extra motivated for this one.  We’ll lay it.

#857 ASA PLAY ON Utah State +6.5 over New Mexico, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played just over 2 weeks ago and USU was favored by 4 at home in that game. They lost big, which is a rarity, and now we’re getting value here with the Utes getting a full +6 at the opener. USU’s loss at home vs the Lobos was by far their worst performance of the season. They lost 82-63, shot just 38% and from beyond the arc the Utes were 5 of 31 (16%) and made only 10 of 23 FT’s. That’s from a team that leads the Mountain West in conference games hitting over 37% of their triples. Just one of the games where nothing was going in which happens even to the best teams from time to time. We don’t expect a repeat performance from Utah State who is one of the best shooting teams in the nation (5th nationally in FG%) and they lead the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. All those factors along with the fact they rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the MWC in offensive turnover rate) is why this team is so good on the road. They have a near perfect 7-1 record away from home with their only loss coming by 3 points. They have already topped some really good teams on the road including San Diego State, St Mary’s, and Nevada. The Utes shoot better on the road than they do at home (51% on the road) and they are allowing just 68 PPG away from home. The Lobos sit in 1st place in the MWC and USU is one game behind them so this is a big one. New Mexico is very good but this is too many points for a team that is also very good and has some extra incentive after getting embarrassed a few weeks ago. USU is 22-3 on the year with a 2 point loss, a 3 point loss, and then their poor performance vs the Lobos. The Utes have actually won 9 of the last 16 @ New Mexico and we think this one goes to the wire. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Western Kentucky -2 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - WKY had a needed week off since playing last Saturday as they look to get some players back in the lineup. Last Saturday they battled valiantly with just 8 players available at 1st place Jacksonville State before losing 85-83. The Hilltoppers blew a 19 point lead in that game simply running out of gas in the 2nd half due to the short line up. It looks like starter Kalambay (9 PPG) will return after missing last week with an illness and key bench player Edelen could be back as well. WKY is 11-2 at home this season with their only conference home loss coming vs Jax State who as we mentioned sits in 1st place. MTSU will be playing their 3rd straight road game and they are 3-3 away from home in CUSA play with their wins coming by 1, 2, and 4 points. They are coming off a road upset win @ Kennesaw State where they shot 50% from the field and still only won by a single point. Despite their 5-6 league record, Western Kentucky is still rated as the 3rd best team in CUSA behind only Jacksonville State and Liberty who are in 1st and 2nd place. The Toppers have played the strongest strength of schedule in the league and have 3 wins over teams ranked in the top 5 in CUSA including a win @ Liberty who is ranked #1 (per KenPom). They’ve only played 4 home games thus far in their 11 game conference slate. These teams met a month ago @ MTSU and the Blue Raiders won 71-57 with WKY shooting only 33% from the field and 20% from deep. It was by far their worst offensive output of the entire season and we like them to bounce back tonight at home where they are averaging 84 PPG. If this one is tight as the line suggests, FT’s could be a key and WKY hits 76% from the stripe in CUSA play while MTSU makes only 65%. We’ll lay this small number.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Tarleton State +5.5 over Seattle, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Huge quick revenger for Tarleton who just played @ Seattle 10 days ago and lost 91-54 as a 9 point dog. Seattle shot lights out in that game hitting 57% of their shots overall (they average 42%) and 60% of their triples hitting 15 of 25. Seattle scored a ridiculous 1.54 PPP which is WAY above their season WAC average of 1.04 PPP. The Texans strength is their defense so you can bet they’ll put some extra emphasis on that end of the court and won’t let that happen again. Tarleton hasn’t been great on the road but at home they’ve been very feisty winning 8 of 10 overall (average margin of +11 PPG) with just 1 home loss in WAC play on Thursday by just 4 points vs Grand Canyon, the highest rated team in the conference. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a poor road team. They have yet to win on the road in WAC play and just lost by 16 @ Abilene Christian on Thursday night now 48 hours later they are on the road again. Seattle is shooting just 39% away from home and losing by an average margin of -7 PPG so don’t expect them to make everything in sight as they did at home 10 days ago vs this TSU team. As a road favorite the Redhawks are now 0-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS their last 11 in that role. Tarleton, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS as a home dog this season winning 2 of those games outright. TSU won both meetings last year before getting clobbered a few days ago and you can bet they’ll be more than ready for this rematch. We like Tarleton to win this game outright so we’ll take the points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -2.5 over St Louis, Friday at 7 PM ET - Loyola is 12-1 at home this season where they average 1.078 PPP compared to 0.972 on the road. Going back to last season they’ve won 19 of their last 20 home games. They’ve been outstanding defensively at home as well allowing 0.934 PPP on 40% shooting giving up only 64 PPG. Their only home loss came back in early January vs VCU who is by far the highest rated team in the A10 (per KenPom) currently sitting with a 20-5 record. The Ramblers have played 2 other top 5 A10 teams here at home and beat them both (St Joes and St Bonnies). St Louis began the conference season winning 5 of their first 6 games but they’ve been heading in the wrong direction for a few weeks now losing 4 of their last 6. They have not been a good team away from home with a 3-6 record both SU and ATS and 2 of their 3 wins came vs Fordham and Richmond, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. They average less than 1.00 PPP on the road (0.985) while allowing nearly 1.10 PPP. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Billikens coughing it up over 20% of the time in A10 play (dead last) and they’ve turned it over more than 20% in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face a Loyola defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally creating turnovers which should lead to some extra possessions for the Ramblers. We think STL continues their road struggles and Loyola gets the win and cover.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves - OKC played poorly for the majority of the game against the Heat on Wednesday night but battled back for a home win over the Heat. Chet Holmgren didn't play rest reasons and Alex Caruso playing sparingly. One of the Thunders greatest attributes is their depth as they bring guys off the bench and don't skip a beat. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury and they played a very short rotation against the Bucks on Wednesday with three starters all out. The Thunder are 8-2 SU when playing without rest this season with an average plus/minus of +9.3ppg. Minnesota is 4-4 SU without rest +4.3ppg. As a home dog the Wolves have just 1 ATS win in three attempts. OKC is a regular road favorite and a moneymaking 12-8-2 ATS as an away favorite +11.1ppg. The Thunder have a winning record against the West, Minnesota has a losing record. OKC has a big advantage offensively with the 6th best Offensive Net rating compared to the Wolves 14th. The Thunder are 1st in Defensive Net rating the Wolves are 6th. We like the visitor in this one.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors +7 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This bet was scheduled back on December 11th when the Rockets beat the Warriors in an UGLY game that ended with a controversial call against GST which awarded the Rockets two game-winning FT’s. The Rockets were at home in that contest and had Fred VanVleet in the lineup and were favored by -3-points. The Warriors did not have Jimmy Butler on the roster who has fit in perfectly with Golden State. Both teams played last night so neither has rest advantage. These two teams have similar offensive and defensive Net ratings with the Rockets holding a slight advantage in both as far as season statistics go. It’s a very small sample size, but with Butler in the lineup the Warriors have the 6th best Net rating differential in the NBA at +11.0. Golden State is 20-14 ATS as a road dog dating back to the start of last season and they have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Rockets. With this line inflated we will grab the value with Golden State.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +5.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Ole Miss is in a rough spot here having just come from behind late to win @ LSU and they have a revenge match with arch rival Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels had to come from 11 down with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game as a 6 point chalk @ LSU to win by 2 points on a tip in at the buzzer. The final score of 72-70 was the only time that Mississippi led in the second half and that was vs an LSU team that is ranked lower than South Carolina per KenPom. Now the Rebs have to face a South Carolina team that is 0-10 SU in SEC play so don’t be surprised if they aren’t fully focused on this game. They better be because the Gamecocks, despite their record, have been very competitive at home vs the top teams in the SEC. They’ve faced the toughest home schedule in SEC play having already faced the 4 teams in 1st or 2nd place in the conference along with Mississippi State who is ranked 31st nationally per KenPom. The only non-competitive game in that stretch was vs Bama way back on January 8th Since then they lost to Auburn by 3, Texas A&M by 4, Florida by 1, and in OT vs Mississippi State. Just prior to the SEC conference slate the Gamecocks beat Clemson here at home and that’s a Tiger team that just beat Duke and UNC and sits in 2nd place in the ACC. This team is more than capable of pulling off this upset and it’s a perfect situational spot for them to do so. We’ll take the points.

#686 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -6 over Iowa, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - This Rutgers team can be handicapped really as 2 different teams. One with their star freshman Dylan Harper in the line up (he is projected as a top 5 NBA Draft Pick) and one with him out of the line up. He is back and at 100% and they are much better with him playing at full strength. He had a few games he attempted to play but wasn’t near 100% and only played 10 to 15 minutes. If we look only at games he played significant minutes and was healthy, in those games Rutgers is 4-4 in Big 10 play (5-8 overall Big 10 record) including home wins over Illinois and UCLA. Iowa, on the other hand, is on the other end of the health spectrum. They lost their top big man Freeman (17 PPG & 7 RPG) for the season a week ago and he’s missed the last 2 games (both losses). The Hawkeyes starting PG Thelwell also suffered an ankle injury vs Wisconsin and he didn’t practice this week so he’s very questionable for this game. We’re not sure how much energy Iowa will have left in the tank here. They just lost back to back home games vs Purdue and Wisconsin. They put a lot of energy and effort into that Wisconsin rematch after losing to their rival 116-85 in Madison earlier in the season. Now they go on the road after that disappointing home stand and they’ve been really bad on the road losing 4 of their 5 conference games away from home by double digits. Iowa’s strength is their offense and those numbers drop drastically on the road where they have a -17 PPG margin. Defensively they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and they allowed an average of 95 PPG on the road! This smells like another Iowa double digit road loss so we’ll lay it with Rutgers at one of the tougher home venues in the conference.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas +3 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Horns have back to back huge home games vs Bama & Kentucky as they sit near the NCAA bubble and need a few big wins down the stretch to make sure they get in. We like the value here and the situation for Texas. The Horns are 3-3 in their last 6 games and those losses were all fairly tight with margins of 3, 8, and 8 points. Of their 7 SEC losses, 5 have come by 8 points or less. They are facing a Bama team that has won 6 in a row and 9 of their 10 SEC games. The Tide seem to be a bit overvalued right now as they are laying -5 in this game @ Texas (opening number) and they were just +1.5 @ Mississippi State less than 2 weeks ago. That’s an MSU team that is ranked pretty much dead even with Texas in most metrics (KenPom, Haslam, etc…). We’re getting a 6.5 point swing from less than 2 weeks ago and the situation highly favors Texas with Bama facing arch rival Auburn (#1 and #2 in the AP Poll) coming up on Saturday. That game is already being discussed as one of the bigger games in the state of Alabama’s history. A lookahead spot for the Tide who haven’t been all that dominant on the road in SEC play. Since winning @ South Carolina (worst team in the SEC with 0-10 record) by 20 back in early January, Bama’s last 4 conference road wins have come by margins of 6, 5, 4, and 4 points. When facing the 2 highest rated teams in the SEC (per KenPom) at home this season, Auburn & Tennessee, the Longhorns took them to the wire losing by 5 and 4 points. This is a much more important game for Texas and we’re most likely into for another tight game. The Horns get one of the key players, Tramon Mark (10 PPG), back here after he missed Saturday’s loss @ Vandy. Take the points as we feel Texas has a decent shot at the upset here.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -1.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Wolverines have been waiting for this rematch since their embarrassing 91-64 loss @ Purdue on January 24th. Michigan’s other 4 losses this season came by margins of 1, 2, 2, and 3 points so their Purdue setback was by far their worst of the season. The Boilers shot 55% in that home game while averaging just under 1.30 PPP which is well above their season average of 1.18 PPP in Big 10 play. Michigan shot just 37% and averaged 0.90 PPP which is well below their full season average of 1.18 PPP. Purdue jumped out to a 32-11 lead just 10 minutes into the game and things snow balled from there. Now we get the Boilers on the road where their numbers drop off drastically. They are 5-0 on the road in Big 10 play, however those wins have come vs Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Iowa, and Oregon with the first 4 listed being the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference per KenPom and the Ducks are currently just 5-8 in league play. An easy road schedule to say the least. Even with that, the Boilermakers average just 71 PPG on the road (85 PPG at home) on 1.068 PPP compared to 1.217 at home. Michigan is undefeated at home this season (11-0 record) winning by an average of +20 PPG. The Wolverines are shooting 51% overall, 39% from 3, and averaging 1.162 PPP on their home court. A win here vaults them over Purdue into 1st place in the Big 10. The Wolves strength on offense is inside the arc with two very good 7 footers (Wolf & Goldin) where they rank 5th nationally in 2 point FG% at 60%. That happens to be Purdue’s defensive weakness ranking 285th in 2 point defense. Michigan defensively ranks in the top 40 in both 3 point and 2 point FG% while ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. We don’t see Purdue duplicating their red hot shooting in this rematch and we like Michigan to get the win and cover.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a game yesterday, a home win against the 76ers but we don’t feel fatigue will be an issue. The Bucks are 14-9 SU since the start of last season when playing without rest with a positive scoring differential. Very rarely are the Bucks a home dog. Milwaukee has been catching points at home just 8 times since the beginning of last season and they’ve won 6 of those with an average +/- of +6.5ppg. Golden State is coming off a huge second half against the Bulls in Jimmy Butlers debut but there is no way this .500 team should be favored by this number on the road. Golden State is 11-13 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of +0.6ppg. The Bucks are 7-1 SU at home in their last eight game and even without Giannis they have enough on this roster to beat this Warriors team outright.

#847 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +3 over Villanova, Sunday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January with XU winning by 6 despite Nova shooting better from the field.  The Wildcats have not played well since mid January going 2-5 SU over their last 7 games.  They are just 2-2 at home since January 10th with losses to Georgetown and Creighton and their 2 wins were both by 2 points vs Providence and UConn.  There only 2 comfortable wins in Big East play were vs Seton Hall and DePaul, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the league.  During that same span, Xavier has kicked it into high gear and won 5 of their last 7 games.  Their only losses during that stretch came on the road in OT vs first place St John’s and @ Creighton who has now won 9 straight games.  The Musketeers also have an impressive win @ Marquette during this run.  Since January 10th, Xavier ranks as the 32nd best team in the nation and the 3rd best in the Big East behind only St Johns & Creighton (per Bart Torvik Analytics).  Nova ranks as the 7th best team in the conference during that stretch.  The Cats love to shoot the 3 and they do it well ranking #1 in the Big East in 3 point FG% and percentage of points from deep.  However, XU matches up perfectly defensively with this Villanova offense as they rank #1 in the Big East defending the arc allowing just 30%.  XU is no slouch from beyond the arc either hitting almost 39% on the year good for 17th nationally.  They outscored Villanova from deep in the first meeting (10 three’s made to 8) and if they do that again it will be very tough for the Wildcats to win this game as Nova relies so heavily in the triple and they do not get to the FT line (320th in percentage of points from the charity stripe).  This has been a tightly contested series with each of the last 6 meetings decided by 8 or fewer points with 4 of those coming by 4 points or less.  We expect a tight one in Philly on Sunday so we’ll grab the points with Xavier.

ASA play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8pm ET - The Warriors made a big move at the trade deadline and brought in Jimmy Butler for Andrew Wiggins. Butler is expected to be in the lineup tonight against his former Bulls team, but chemistry may take a while for the Warriors/Curry to adjust to. Plus, Butler has only played in 5 games since mid-December so it’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact on this outcome. In any regard, we are not about to lay this number with the 10-13 SU road-Warriors. Golden State is 2-5 SU their last seven road games with a negative Net Rating of minus -4.4. On the season the Warriors have a negative average point differential -0.4ppg on the road and a 3-5-1 ATS record as a road chalk this season. Chicago traded away their leading scorer Zach LaVine and have decided to rebuild with a young roster. The cupboard isn’t bare in the Windy City with Vucevic, White, Ball and Dosunmu still on the roster. Chicago is 9-7-1 ATS as a home dog this season with recent wins over Miami and Denver. Chicago does have a losing overall record at home this season but their average loss margin of minus -3.1 is good enough to grab a cover in this one.

#774 ASA PLAY ON UMKC -3 over North Dakota, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UMKC has lost 8 straight games after winning their first 2 in Summit League play yet they are still a favorite of more than a possession here which should tell you something. Their last 7 losses have come by margins of 7, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6 and 6 points so they’ve been really close to breaking through. Five of those eight games were on the road and their 3 home games during that stretch were vs the top 3 teams in the Summit (South Dakota State, St Thomas, and North Dakota State). Those are the only 3 teams in the conference that rank inside the top 200 per KenPom and despite losing those 3 games, UMKC took them all to the wire losing by 1, 3, and 6 points. Now they finally get a shot at a low level conference team at home and we think the Roos will take care of business here. In their other 2 games vs lower level Summit opponents at home they won by 14 vs South Dakota and by 23 vs Oral Roberts. The get a North Dakota team that is 2-9 on the road this season losing by an average score of 82-73. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a road loss on Thursday @ Omaha in a game they shot 54% overall (their season average is 43%), 56% from beyond the arc (their season average is 32%), and 80% from the foul line (they average 71%) and still lost. Now they are facing a very solid UMKC defense that ranks 2nd in conference play in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. On the other end of the court, North Dakota is terrible defensively ranking 349th nationally in defensive efficiency, 362nd in eFG% allowed, and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. In the first meeting in mid January, North Dakota shot 47% (41% for UMKC) and made 6 more FT’s but won by just 4 points (game was tied with 1:00 minute remaining). We like UMKC to break their losing streak and pick up a win and cover on Saturday.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +4.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU is playing their best basketball of the season winning 4 in a row including 2 road games @ Iowa State and @ Arizona State. Going back even further, they’ve played above their efficiency expectations in 6 of their last 7 games (per Haslam Metrics). This is a very dangerous team right now and this is their biggest game of the year. They lost by 10 points @ Kansas and the Jayhawks shot 55% from the field in that win. We don’t expect that here from a KU team that already has 4 road losses while shooting just 43% overall and 30% from deep on the road this season. The Jayhawks actually have a losing record in true road games this season (3-4 SU) and their 3 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 per KenPom. KU has lost 5 of their last 7 games ATS while KSU has covered 7 in a row. There is a lot of talent on this KSU team with big time transfers McDaniel (from Michigan), Hawkins (from Illinois), and Hausen (from Villanova) and they are finally all starting to mesh as a team. The Cats are always sky high for their home game vs KU and they’ve won outright each of the last 2 seasons here as a dog. They are 7-3 ATS this year as a home dog and we think they have a decent shot to pull another home upset vs the Jayhawks. Take the points.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 pm ET - The Bucks were dealing with trade distractions swirling around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others which clearly had an effect on their play. With Middleton gone they can move on and focus on building chemistry for a strong playoff run. The Hawks made some moves at the trade deadline and dealt their second-leading scorer, Hunter, to the Cavaliers. Atlanta was dealt a serious blow last month when borderline All-Star Jalen Johnson went down with a season ending injury. The Hawks have gone 1-9 SU in their last ten games getting beat by an average of -8.3ppg. Atlanta will have a tough time scoring here with a depleted lineup and an offense that ranks 27th in Offensive Net rating in their last ten games. Milwaukee shouldn’t have problems scoring here with their 6th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that is 27th in opponents FG% allowed. The Bucks rank 2nd in 3PT%, the Hawks are 26th in 3PT% defense. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season with the two teams splitting wins in Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the two most recent meetings in Atlanta by 11 and 9-points. Milwaukee is accustomed to playing without Middleton who missed a large volume of games with injuries so adapting without him shouldn’t be difficult. Atlanta may suffer in the short term without Hunter in the lineup and the new trade pieces (Levert & Niang) not in the building for this one. Lay the points with the Bucks (check Giannis status before tipoff).

ASA play on Denver Nuggets -7.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 9 PM ET - It’s highly unlikely that either of these teams are making a major move before the trade deadline today so we will back the Nuggets with the favorable scheduling in this one. On Monday the Magic looked horrific in a game against the Warriors. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. They played like a completely different team last night in Sacramento, beating the Kings 130-111, shooting well above expectations at 57% for the game. The Magic are now 2-9 SU in their last eleven games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -13.2. Orlando has an EFG% of 47.3% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 11-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -12.1ppg. The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude in Denver. Not only that, this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days so fatigue will be a factor against a Nuggets team accustomed to the altitude. Denver is playing at a very high level right now with 4 straight wins and 8 in their last eleven. If we examine that recent 11-game stretch we find the Nuggets have the best EFG%, 8th best Net Rating with an average +/- of +6.6ppg. Denver is 16-8 SU at home for the season with an average MOV of +6.4ppg. They are 5-1 SU their last five at home +13.3ppg. Denver has some of the best offensive numbers in the NBA, including an Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.193-points per possession. Orlando is 3rd in DEFF but teams have shot well against them as they rank 24th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. The scheduling advantage is the difference here and we like the Nuggets to grab a big home win.

#794 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tonight OSU has a chance to avenge their worst loss of the Big 10 season which came @ Maryland back on December 4th.  The final score of that game was 83-59 with the Terps winning easily.  The Buckeyes other 5 losses in conference play have come by a total of 20 points or an average of just -4 PPG.  The Terps have been a poor road team this season with a 2-4 record with their 2 wins coming @ Indiana by 1 point on a last second 3 point shot and @ Illinois when the Illini were dealing with injuries and were also dealing with the flu at the same time.  Maryland ranks 353rd in Haslem Metrics away efficiency stat and defensively they allow 1.044 PPP on the road compared to 0.833 at home.  They already have Big 10 road losses @ Oregon, @ Northwestern, and @ Washington, who all currently have losing records in conference play and combine for an 11-22 SU Big 10 record.  The Buckeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games, including a win @ Purdue, and they sit squarely on the NCAA bubble.  They are in must win mode, especially at home, and they’ve won 4 straight at home vs the Terps.  We’ll lay the small number in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Kings were involved in the NBA-trade-hoopla when they sent All-Star level guard DeAaron Fox to the Spurs and in exchange received Zach LaVine of the Bulls. Fox was putting up 25ppg, 5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 46.9% shooting. LaVine had similar numbers at 24ppg, 4.8rpg and 4.5apg on 51.1% shooting. Honestly the winner in this whole deal was the San Antonio Spurs but the Kings came out OK with LaVine and a bevy of future draft picks. LaVine will be in the lineup tonight with the Kings to face an Orlando team that is really struggling right now. The Magic just faced the Warriors the other night in what might be one of the ugliest NBA games I’ve ever watched. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. The Magic are 1-9 SU in their last ten games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -16.5. Orlando has an EFG% of 45.5% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 10-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -15.3ppg. Sacramento is 5-5 SU their last 10 games but a closer look reveals the five L’s are respectable coming to the Bucks, Nuggets, Knicks, 76ers (playing well right now) and Thunder. All five of those losses also came on the road. Sacramento is coming off a road win most recently over the Timberwolves after shooting 49% overall, 42% from beyond the arc. Even with a .500 record in their last ten games the Kings have the 11th best Net Rating in the league at +1.5. Sacramento has the 14th best EFG% over that 10-game stretch and has shot exceptionally well at home in recent games. The Kings have won 5 in a row on their home court by an average +/- of +8.8ppg. We like the Kings in this one.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +9.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Vols who played a huge revenge game on Saturday hosting Florida who beat them by 30 points earlier in the year. The Vols got their revenge rolling the Gators by 20 points holding Florida to 0.69 PPP and just 4 of 27 from beyond the arc. It was actually Tennessee’s 3rd huge game in a row after losing to Auburn and Kentucky prior to getting back on track Saturday. They played that game without PG Ziegler as he’s having knee issues. It looks like he’ll be back here but not 100%. Not much is being said about Missouri but the Tigers have been sneaky good this season. They are coming off a blowout 27 point road win @ Mississippi State and they also topped Florida on the road this year giving the Gators their only home loss. Not only is that Florida’s only home loss, they’ve dominated teams at home (besides Mizzou) winning every other game by at least 18 points. The Tigers are 17-4 on the season and they only team to beat them by double digits was #1 Auburn on the road a game Missouri lost by 16. In SEC play Mizzou has better PPP margins (per 100 possessions) and they are 5-2 ATS as a dog this season covering vs high level opponents including Auburn, Kansas, Florida, and Illinois. Too many points here in a game we expect will be close throughout.

#722 ASA PLAY ON Central Florida -2.5 over Cincinnati, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ll take another shot with UCF tonight. We were on them Saturday here at home vs BYU and they came up short losing by 6. BYU shot 11% better than UCF from the field and 13% better from beyond the arc in that game. It was tight throughout with each team’s largest lead being 7 points. Now we’re getting UCF with a similar spread at home (-3 open and -1.5 vs BYU) but the Cougars are much better than this Cincinnati team. We’re getting some solid value on the host here. As we mentioned in our analysis on Saturday, the Golden Knights have been playing well, just struggling to get over the hump. Their last 5 losses have all come vs top 30 teams and 3 of those were vs top 10 teams (per KenPom). And 4 of those losses came by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points. Their win during that stretch was a blowout 28 point win over TCU and their opponent tonight, Cincinnati, is much closer to TCU than the other teams UCF has been losing to. The Bearcats are struggling to say the least. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games with 5 of those 8 setbacks coming by double digits. They just lost by 13 at home vs a WVU team that had lost 5 of their previous 7 prior to Sunday’s win @ Cincy. The Bearkats now make a quick turnaround on the road after playing on Sunday while UCF is still at home and played a day earlier on Saturday. The Golden Knights have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big 12 play (Cincy #8 SOS) and yet they have a better conference record (4-6 compared to 2-8 for the Bearcats) and they have better efficiency margins in league play. UCF finally gets to play a lower half Big 12 team (they’ve only played 1 since January 8th and rolled TCU) and we think they take advantage and pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#701 ASA PLAY ON Troy +1.5 over James Madison, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Troy is rated by KenPom as the 2nd best team in the Sun Belt at this point of the season behind only Arkansas State. The Trojans are 8-3 in the league and their 3 losses have come by a combined 8 points and they led by double digits on 2 of those setbacks. They’ve shown they can get it done on the road with a 3-1 record away from home in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama by 1 point. JMU is on a nice 4 game winning streak but those opponents all sit near the bottom of the conference power rankings (ODU twice, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State). Versus upper tier teams in conference play the Dukes are just 2-4 SU with their 2 wins coming by 3 & 5 points. Troy has much better efficiency numbers in conference play outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions while JMU is outscoring their opponents by 1 point per 100 possessions. Troy has better conference PPP numbers both on offense and defense and they are 2nd in the league at creating turnovers. The Trojans also rank #1 in the Sun Belt in assists per FG made while the Dukes rank 14th. Troy is simply the better team and they have a winning road record on the season.

#666 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +3.5 over Boise St, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - UNLV is in must win mode at home after losing 4 straight games to go from 5-2 in MWC play to 5-6.  However, all of those games went to the wire with a 2 point loss vs Wyoming, 2 point loss vs New Mexico, 5 point loss @ Utah State and a 6 point loss @ Nevada.  In their loss @ Nevada on Saturday, the game was tied with just over 1:00 minute to go and the Wolfpack scored the final 6 points of the game.  Prior to their losing streak the Rebels beat San Diego State on the road and Utah State at home, 2 of the top 3 rated teams in the Mountain West per KenPom.  Versus the top 3 teams in the league (SDSU, New Mexico, and Utah State) the Rebels are 2-2 and their losses have come by 2 and 5 points.  This team has shown they can beat anyone in this conference and we like them to knock off Boise tonight.  The Broncos are 0-3 vs those top 3 teams and they haven’t been great on the road with a 2-4 record and their wins came by 2 points @ San Jose State and by 9 points @ Wyoming, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  They are ranked 358th out of 364 teams in road efficiency per Haslam Metrics and they have a negative point differential in their 9 games away from home (road and neutral).  UNLV is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season and 7-0 ATS in that role since the start of last season.  We’ll call for the Rebels to get the much needed home win on Tuesday.

ASA play on Miami Heat -3 at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Heat have had plenty of time to adjust to not playing with a star player in Jimmy Butler as he has been suspended while forcing a trade. The Bulls just traded their best player in Zach Lavine and basically got nothing in return to help them this season. Chicago is clearly in tank mode and going to try and build through the draft. The Bulls are also shopping Vet center Nikola Vucevic to other teams which is another sign they’ve called it for the year. Chicago isn’t in the best scheduling situation here after playing 3 straight road games and also being on the road for 6 of their last eight games. They are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and 1-5 SU their last six at home. Chicago has one of the worst home records in the NBA at 9-16 SU with an average loss margin of -3.6ppg. Miami doesn’t have a great overall road record this season at 11-13 SU, but they are a respectable 6-4 SU as a road chalk with an average MOV of +3.3 in those games. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of Offensive Efficiency with both averaging about 1.128-points per possession. The big separator comes defensively with the Bulls ranking 24th in Defensive Efficiency, the Heat rank 10th in DEFF. Miami has won 3 of their last four games and have moved on from the Jimmy Butler distraction. The Bulls are wondering who’s next to go from the locker room. Lay the points with the Heat!

#601 ASA PLAY ON Marquette +3 over St Johns, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We like the Golden Eagles to bounce back after losing at home vs UConn on Saturday. The Huskies won that game 77-69 and looking at the stats it was amazing Marquette was even able to keep it that close. UConn shot 60% overall and 63% from 3 point range. Marquette shot 40% overall, 32% from deep, and missed 10 FT’s yet it was still a 6 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Marquette missed 7 shots in the last minute alone. Just one of those nights. They’ve done a great job of bouncing back off a loss as the Golden Eagles have only lost consecutive games twice since the start of the 2022 season, a span of 95 games. This year they’ve won each of their 3 games following a loss by double digits. St John’s is 19-3 overall and 10-1 in the Big East but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in conference play. They’ve won 8 straight games since losing to Creighton back on December 31st but none of those wins have come vs the top 4 teams in conference play. Their only game vs a top 4 team (per KenPom ratings) in league play this entire season was a loss to Creighton. Not only that, many of those wins at home were tight beating Providence by 2, Xavier in OT, Georgetown by 5, and Butler by 8. The Johnnies thrive on creating turnovers that lead to extra possessions but that will be tough here vs a Marquette team that is very strong at the guard position and ranks #1 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. St Johns opponents have turned the ball over at a 20%+ clip in 4 of their last 5 games and that won’t happen here. The Johnnies are a poor shooting team ranking 10th in the Big East in eFG% and dead last in 3 point FG% in league play at 24%. They also make less than 70% of their FT’s. Marquette’s defense is off a poor showing but for the season they are very high level (16th nationally in efficiency) so they match up well with St John’s. The Golden Eagles have won 6 straight in this series and we expect a close game here so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of the mid-season Tournament which the Bucks won 97-81 as a 5-point underdog. The Thunder were favored by -5-points on a neutral court in Vegas and are now only laying a slightly higher number at home. OKC is 20-3 SU at home this season with an average plus/minus of +14ppg. Last season the Thunder were 36-10 SU at home with an average point differential of +12.3ppg. OKC has the best EDIFF or Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +12.3, the Bucks number is 2.5. Milwaukee is 9-13 SU away from home this season after going 18-25 SU on the road last season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU their last five road games with the only win coming at Utah. They were beaten by 34 in New York, lost by 10 at the Clippers, won in Utah, lost at Portland by 13 and the Spurs by 26. The Thunder will be rested for this game while the Bucks are coming off a big game in Milwaukee against the Grizzlies last night. The Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS without rest this season. OKC has a little extra motivation tonight and win by double-digits here.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - The Spurs pulled off a blockbuster trade to land DeAaron Fox of the Kings without giving up anyone and now have a roster capable of making noise in the playoffs this season, and a title contender next season. San Antonio made a masterful trade to bring in the young dynamic Fox to pair with Wemby, Castle, Johnson and Sochan. This roster is now built to be a Championship contender for years to come if they can keep it together. Tonight, we like the Spurs and the points against a Grizzlies team coming off a huge win in Milwaukee last night. Memphis is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch which featured the Knicks in New York, home against the Rockets, then in Milwaukee last night. The Grizz are also shorthanded with Ja Morant sidelined with a shoulder injury. San Antonio is playing with double-revenge here as they lost twice to the Grizzlies in mid-January by 14 and 28-points. The Spurs were without Wembanyama in their last game, a loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, but he should be back for this game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-13 SU when playing without rest since the start of last season with an average point differential of minus -1.3ppg. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA when playing with a rest advantage with a 9-2 ATS record and an average MOV of +8.4ppg. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10 PM ET - The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder. Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1. Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively. Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5. Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.