ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -5.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - I really think the Warriors window has closed. Kerr isn’t the coach he once was and father time has caught up to Draymond Green and Steph Curry. If we look at what these teams have done since the All-Star break we find the Clippers have a 16-12 SU record and a +3.9 Net differential. Golden State in that same time frame is 8-19 SU with a -5.3 Net rating. To put that into perspective, based on Net rating since the AS Break the Warriors are the 10th worst team in the NBA and have a lower rating than the Pelicans. LA has dominated this rivalry in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings with the GST. You’ll be surprised to know, the Clippers are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA overall and 7th in 3PT%. The Warriors defense ranks 23rd in FG% defense and 19th in 3PT% D. Conversely, the Warriors shoot just 46.1% on the season (24th) and 35.6% from beyond the arc, 20th. The Clippers are 14th in FG% defense, 22nd in 3PT% but clearly the Warriors can’t take advantage. LA is better on both ends of the court and we expect the home team to win by double digits in this one.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - Yes, the Heat and Spoelstra have a clear advantage on the bench, but this game is going to be won on the floor and quite frankly, the Hornets have been the much better team since the All-Star break. Charlotte is 18-9 SU since the break with the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +11.1, only behind the Spurs. In that same time frame the Heat have a Net rating of +2.2 which rates 16th. Charlotte has an average plus/minus at home of +10.5ppg at home since the AS break with an overall record of 9-6. Miami finished the season with a 4-8 road run and an average loss margin of -4.0ppg. Charlotte was just favored by -5.5 points at home against the Pistons and were favored by -2.5 points in late March against Boston, -2 versus the Knicks. Those three teams are considerably better than this Heat team that has underperformed all season long. Charlotte is the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the league and the Heat struggle defending the arc with the 17th worst 3PT% D in the NBA. Lastly, the Heat/Spoelstra are getting a lot of attention in this matchup which has impacted the betting markets in favor of Miami, yet the Books refuse to move their number. It’s the changing of the guard and the Hornets come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -10.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:40pm ET - It’s the last day of the regular season which can be tough to navigate without knowing exactly who or who isn’t going to play. In this game we know the Nuggets are sitting everyone that matters. They have their top 9 players listed as out for today’s game and will end up the #4 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs don’t technically have anything to play for either, other than sending a message to Denver who they’ll likely face in the second round of the playoffs. San Antonio is young and has a deep roster so even when they sit starters later in this game it shouldn’t matter as we’re betting they have a big lead at that point and the guys off the bench are much better than Denver’s reserves. In fact, the Spurs have the #1 bench rating in the league at +6.6, the Nuggets are 15th at -3.8. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets are 23-3 SU with the best average +/- in the league at +13.5ppg. The Nuggets are 17-8 SU in that same time frame and plus +6.8ppg. San Antonio has won 13 or their last fourteen home games by an average of +12.8ppg. Denver hasn’t been great away from home lately with a 5-6 SU record in their last eleven road games. Given who’s playing we expect this to be a very ugly game for Denver from start to finish. Lay it with the Spurs.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7:10pm ET - The Pistons literally have nothing to play for. They have locked up the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and can’t catch OKC or San Antonio in the West for hosting the Finals. Charlotte on the other hand has everything to play for as they would love to climb up the standing of the play in games and potentially get a home game plus play one game to get in and not two. Detroit will rest starters in this game and we doubt we’ll see much of Cunningham with him just returning to action after a collapsed lung. Let’s not forget, the Hornets have been one of the best teams in the league since the All-Star break with a 17-8 SU record and the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league at +12.2. Only the Spurs and Thunder have played better since the break. Charlotte has won 9 of their last fourteen home games, Detroit is 8-6 SU on the road since the AS game. The Hornets are coming off a loss in Boston most recently which also puts them in a favorable situation. Charlotte is 23-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average MOV of +3.8ppg. Detroit is off a big win over the Bucks and we doubt they’ll show the Hornets much in this game considering they may face them in the 1st round of the playoffs. This is also the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these teams and is a double revenge spot for the Hornets. The Pistons won the first two meetings by a combined 32 points and Charlotte is out for payback. Playing with double revenge the Hornets get the call in this one! We will lay it here with Charlotte.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - The Celtics are going to rest Derrick White and Jaylen Brown on Thursday against the Knicks. Yes, the C’s are deep but we’re not sure they’re going to be able to beat the Knicks down 2 starters. The Knicks have a little more incentive to win here so they maintain the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been great on the road this season with a 26-14 SU record, but the Knicks have been fantastic at home with a 28-9 record and an average margin of victory of +10.4ppg. New York has a slightly better record in division games at 12-3 SU compared to the Celtics 10-5 SU mark. The home team has covered 5 of the last six meetings between these two rivals, 2 of three this season. New York nearly lost at home the other night to the Hawks and should play with a greater sense of urgency in this divisional showdown. The Celtics look like they are more concerned with health heading into the postseason. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The line on this game is the ‘tell’ as Cleveland should be a bigger favorite at home over the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking to bait some bettors into backing the Cavs at a cheap price but we won’t bite. The facts of the matter are this. Cleveland is in a very favorable position in the Eastern Conference right now sitting 4th in the standings and hosting in the 1st round (potentially this same Hawks team). They trail the Knicks by 1 game but don’t want to move up so they can avoid the Celtics in the second round and play the Cunningham-less Pistons to try and make the EC Finals. Atlanta meanwhile has a lot more to play for as they sit 5th in the East but could slip into the play in tourney with a few losses. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks on Sunday (unfortunately we had them) where they led for a majority of the game before blowing it late. We expect a very focused effort here form a Hawks team that is playing well right now. Atlanta has the 7th best Net rating over the last 10-game period at +9.7 compared to the Cavs +4.7. The biggest contributing factor has been their defense which is 7th in defensive Net rating over that same stretch of games. The Cavs are 17th. Atlanta is the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Cavs 3PT defense is 26th. We expect a motivated Hawks team to win this game rather easily with the Cavs potentially resting everyone.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - The T’Wolves have incentive to win here as they would lock up a top 6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the play in tournament. The Pacers are by far the easiest win on the remaining schedule so expect the Wolves to go all out here so they can rest after tonight. Indiana had a slight bump in their play recently, but injuries have taken a massive toll on their roster as they’ll dress just 9 players tonight and are missing their top 5 scorers. We also like the fact that Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, including a home defeat most recently to the Hornets. Looking back at Minnesota’s schedule they are just 14-11 SU in their last 25 games BUT the eleven losses all came against current playoff bound teams. In their last two games against non-playoff teams or teams on the Pacers level, they have a 30-point win in Dallas and a 36-point win over the Jazz. As we mentioned, the Pacers had some of their regulars back in the lineup in recent weeks and played well, but in their last two games they’ve suffered two double-digit defeats. Indiana has the second worst record in the NBA at 18-60, just one more win than the Wizards who have 17. Minnesota should take advantage of the Pacers porous defense that allows opponents to hit 49% of their field goal attempts overall and 35.7% of their 3PT attempts. The Wolves are the 9th best shooting team in the league overall and 6th best in 3PT%. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - We will ride the red hot Hawks in this game and predict a solid win by the home team in this Eastern Conference showdown. If you’ve been sleeping on Atlanta then you probably don’t know the Hawks have won 13 straight home games and 18 of their last 20 games overall. What’s most impressive in that stretch of games is the fact that 16 of those eighteen wins have come by 10+ points. In their 13-game home winning streak they have an average margin of victory +18.3ppg. The Knicks have been an average road team this season with a 21-19 SU record with an average +/- in those games of +2.6ppg. New York is .500 in their last 10 road games with an average MOV of +1.7ppg – so nothing to scare us off taking the Hawks at home. If we dig a little deeper into the Knicks last 10 away games we also find the 5 wins have come against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Indiana, Utah and Denver – just one team with a winning record. The 5 losses in that same stretch of games came at: Houston, OKC, Charlotte, LA Clippers and LA Lakers. The Knicks sit 3rd in the East and only 1-game ahead of the Cavs in 4th place but they may prefer the four seed to avoid Boston in the conference finals. Atlanta is 5th in the East but trail the Cavs by 4-games so they’re not moving up in the standings but they certainly don’t want to slip down with three teams just 2-games behind them. The Hawks are clearly playing better right now with the 7th best efficiency differential over the last 5-games at +14.5 compared to the Knicks eDIFF of +1.8 in that same span of games. We will trust the Hawks here at home to get a win over the Knicks.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors 10pm ET - The Warriors are not the same Warriors that it was in the past and to be honest, and are barely above the likes of Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas, even though they have 10 more wins on the season. Golden State is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and the 4 wins came against Washington twice, Brooklyn by 3-points and Dallas in OT. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since March 5th and coincidentally that team was Houston by 2-points in OT. Golden State is pretty much locked into the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are just trying to stay somewhat healthy. Houston on the other hand still has a shot at the 4 seed which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has won 5 straight games and 7 of their last nine overall. One of those losses came recently in Minnesota where they were a 2-point favorite. The loss isn’t the interesting factor in that game, it’s the spread of -2 which is obviously slightly lower than today’s spread against a far worse GST team. These two teams played on this court in November with the Rockets winning 104-100 and that was without Durant playing for Houston, while the Warriors had Butler, Curry and Green in the lineup. Houston has the 7th best average +/- over the last 10-games of +10.4ppg. Golden State has an average +/- scoring differential of minus -7.3ppg over that same 10-game period. Houston is healthy and will win this game by 4+ points.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -3.5 over West Virginia, Sunday at 5:30 PM ET - We were on the Sooners yesterday vs Baylor and picked up an easy win 82-69 leading for 90% of the game. After a poor shooting night vs Colorado in round 1 (just 37%), the Sooners rebounded nicely hitting 50% vs the Bears. This is a very good shooting team that is in the top 45 nationally in eFG% and 3 point FG% while ranking in the top 20 in offensive efficiency. As we stated yesterday, OU’s numbers since early February have been very impressive as they are a top 20 team metrically and rank 11th in offensive efficiency during that stretch. They have now won 10 of their las 13 games including a number of wins over NCAA tourney teams including Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M. This offense shoots a lot of 3’s (44% of their FG attempts come from deep) and they hit them at a high rate (almost 37%). WVU has solid defensive numbers but their weakness is defending the arc where they barely rank inside the top 200. Offensively, the Mountaineers are not good. They rolled over Creighton yesterday with an outlier offensive performance hitting 53% overall and 40% from 3 point land. That’s from a team that has shot just 44% on the season (241st) and 32% from deep (246th). The prior game, a come from behind OT win over Stanford, they made only 2 of 20 from deep. This is not a good offensive team as they finished 15th in the Big 12 in efficiency and dead last (16th) in 3 point FG%. They are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country (328th making only 68%) which could definitely bit them in a tight game (Sooners shoot 75% from the FT line). One of OU’s weaknesses is on the defensive glass but that shouldn’t be a huge factor here as WVU is a poor offensive rebounding team (12th in the Big 12). Oklahoma is better on the offensive glass (90th in the country / WVU is 178th) and they turn the ball over at a much lower rate (29th in the country to 191st for WVU). The Sooners have already taken out 2 Big 12 teams to get to this point (Colorado & Baylor) and they get their shot at a 3rd today. Big offensive edge for Oklahoma and we’ll lay the short number in the Crown Championship game.

#649 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Illinois has a number of key advantages in this game, especially on offense. They rank #1 per KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency averaging 131.7 points per 100 possessions which is the highest ever in the KenPom era (since 1997). They are shooting 36% from deep in this tourney and that includes a 3 of 17 effort (17%) vs Iowa in the Elite 8. The Illini were outscored by 24 points from beyond the arc in that game and still won by double digits. UConn has hit only 29% of their triples in this tourney and were trailing Duke by 19 points in the Elite 8 before coming back for a 1 point win. They also went to the wire with Michigan State winning by 4 and that was with a rare hot shooting night from deep as the Huskies hit 43% of their 3s in that tight win. Illinois should have solid advantages in some key areas that aren’t often talked about but should loom large in this game. They are the much better FT shooting team at 78% (UConn 71%) and the Illini should get their more often as well. Connecticut fouls a lot with 24% of their opponent’s points coming from the charity stripe which is 19th most in the country. Illinois opponents only score 13% of their points from the FT line which is dead last in the country. Illinois should also control the boards where they rank 3rd nationally on the offensive glass while UConn is barely in the top 90 on the defensive boards. The Illini also rarely have empty possessions with an offensive turnover rate that ranks in the top 10 in the country (UConn 178th in that key stat). Defensively, the Huskies have better efficiency numbers, however Illinois still sits in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and they have stepped it up on the Big Dance holding 3 straight opponents under 60 points (VCU, Houston, and Iowa). Two of those offenses, Houston & Iowa, rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and both are rated higher offensively than Connecticut. Another “hidden” advantage not many are talking about is the fact that this will be a semi home game for Illinois. They have a huge contingent in Indianapolis which is only 2 hours from Champaign. Our one worry here is Connecticut head coach Hurley has had very good tourney success and has been in this spot. Illinois coach Underwood has not been to the Final 4. That being said, we still feel the Illini have enough key advantages to get this win.

#645 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -1 over Baylor, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - This is a semi final match up in the Crown Tourney being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma picked up a win in OT vs Colorado on Wednesday while Baylor topped Minnesota. The Sooners won despite shooting only 37% from the field and just 27% from deep which is well below their season averages of 47% and 36%. They put up only 1.09 PPP in that win and their season average was 1.23 PPP. OU was getting good shots and because of that, the Shot Quality analytics score in that game had the Sooners winning by 19 points rather than 4 points. Baylor rolled over a Minnesota team that was playing with only a 6 man rotation and shot only 39% overall and made just 3 of 23 triples (13%). The Gophs also made just 47% of their FTs in that game. OU started just 1-9 in SEC play but since that poor start, they won 9 of their final 12 games and are rated as a top 20 team metrically since early February per Bart Torvik analytics. Down the stretch this Oklahoma team beat a number of NCAA tourney teams including Vandy, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Texas A&M. They didn’t have a good shooting night on Wednesday, however since early February this Sooner offense ranks 7th in the country in efficiency as we expect a much better performance vs a Baylor D that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency. While OU was scorching in the 2nd half of the season topping a number of quality opponents, Baylor is just 7-14 since January 1st after winning 10 of their first 12 prior to that. We mentioned Oklahoma topping a number of NCAA tourney teams, not so much for Baylor. The Bears beat ONE NCAA tourney team the entire season topping Central Florida (a 10 seed) by 1 point. The Sooners have been playing their best basketball over the last 2 months, they have the better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively, and we’re only laying 1 point. Oklahoma wins and moves onto the Crown Tourney Championship on Sunday.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10pm ET - Typically, I wouldn’t play on a team like the 76ers coming off a 153 point outburst but today I’ll make an exception. The Sixers are the much more desperate team here sitting 6th in the Eastern Conference but basically tied with Toronto and only 1 game ahead of Charlotte in the 7th or 8th seed. That will mean a play-in situation for Philly if they slip in the ranks. Minnesota is comfortably in the 6th seed in the West and may be content to stay there in the first round to play the Lakers instead of moving up to the 5 seed to face the Nuggets. Minnesota is coming off a tough game last night in Detroit and will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Philly is coming off a blowout win over the Wizards on Wednesday 153-131 and have now won 5 of their last seven games. The 76ers have Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Oubre Jr back in the lineup and look considerably better in recent games. Looking at each teams last 5 games we find the 76ers have a better Net rating at +4.1 compared to the Wolves +2.7. The big difference in this game will come down to shooting and getting buckets. Philly has the 5th best eFG% over the last 5 games with a healthy roster (sans Embiid) while the Wolves have the 30th or worst eFG% in that same span of games. We like the rest advantage and the home team laying a short number. Buy Philadelphia!

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +16 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - This is a solid scheduling situation to back the Pacers and grab the generous points against the Hornets in Charlotte tonight. The Hornets are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night, playing their 3rd in four nights AND 5th game in 7 days. PLUS, they have huge games looming in Minnesota, at Boston, home against Detroit then at New York. We can’t imagine the Hornets will be ‘up’ tonight to face the 18-win Pacers. Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 64.3%, and last 10games at 61.3%. Overall, the Pacers have played well above expectations in recent weeks with the 10th best Net rating in the NBA at +6.3. That’s not much different than the Hornets +9.0 Net rating in that same span of games. Indiana has won two straight road game and has a negative average point differential of minus -10ppg in their last nine road games. A great comparable for this game which tells us the line is too high is the Pacers recent game in San Antonio where they were essentially an underdog by the same number of +16. Charlotte is playing well, but they are not on the Spurs level in the league right now. Charlotte does have some blowout home wins in recent weeks over bad teams, but this is going to be a really tough spot for them. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - This is a great situational spot to fade the Spurs and back the Clippers. San Antonio is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back as they played at Golden State Wednesday night. This is also the Spurs 3rd game in four nights, 5th game in nine days. The Spurs are on a blistering run right now but four of their last 9 wins have come against non-playoff qualifiers. We like the fact that the Clippers are off an upset home loss to the Blazers two nights ago (thank you Portland) and are focused here with playoff positioning on the line. Granted, the Spurs have incentive to win also, but catching the Thunder is a lot to ask considering OKC would need to lose several games and that’s not likely to happen. LA had won 5 straight games prior to the loss. The two prior meetings between these two teams were both decided by just 4-point each. The Clippers have the rest advantage, are highly motivated and have an 8-3 ATS record as a home dog this season. Inflation in the number and desperation have us on the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - These two teams are eerily similar and with the Suns now having Dillon Brooks back in the lineup we like them to keep this game close or win outright. In each teams most recent 5-games these two teams rank 3rd (Hornets) and 5th (Suns) in Net Rating. Charlotte has a Net rating of +14.8 in their last 5 games, the Suns are at +13.0. Rebound rate in also near even in that stretch of games as is eFG%. When if comes to efficiency differentials only almost dead even at +13.6 and +13.5. Charlotte was racking up wins left and right until their schedule stiffened in recent games as they lost to both Philadelphia and Boston as small home favorites. The Hornets are 4-5 SU in their last nine games at home against a team that is currently in a playoff position. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five games and is 4-2 ATS their last six as a dog. They are coming off a 4-point loss to the Magic on Tuesday night and have a 20-13 ATS record this season when coming off an ‘L’. Charlotte is a solid 11-7 ATS at home as a chalk but this will be a tough cover against a Phoenix team that recently beat them by 12 in the Desert. The key advantage in this match up is the Suns 3PT shooting (9th in 3PT%) going up against a Hornets 3PT% D that is 18th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the league, but the Suns have the 2nd best 3PT% defense allowing just 34.6%. This has the feel of a 1 or 2-point game either way. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +17.5 at Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - Let’s start by saying this…I hate taking the Bucks right now as they are a very hard team to trust with Doc Rivers running the show. But, I’ll make an exception tonight as the number is higher than it should be and we expect Milwaukee to keep it relatively close and within the spread. Both teams played last night with the Rockets winning a huge game over the Knicks 111-94. Houston starters logged heavy minutes in the win with Smith Jr, Durant and Thompson all playing 34+ minutes. Milwaukee got a much needed win over the Mavericks 123-99. If you have been following the Bucks, Rivers is employing a new strategy and playing everyone around 20+ minutes so the back-to-back tonight shouldn’t be a factor. This is the largest spread the Rockets have been favored by all season long and while we feel they’ll win this game, we don’t think it’s going to be the blowout the oddsmakers are suggesting. On the season the Rockets have an average plus/minus of +4.5ppg, the Bucks are negative at -6.0ppg, both within reason for tonight’s game and this pointspread. Houston is 26-10 SU on their home court with an average margin of victory of +6.48ppg, the Bucks are 13-24 SU away from home with an average MOV of minus -7.7ppg. The O/U on this game is set at 218.5 which suggests a lower scoring game which makes covering this big number tough for Houston. We will grab the points with the Bucks.

#891 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -9 over Colorado, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This game is part of the Crown Tournament being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma looks like they’ll have their entire team playing in this one while Colorado will have to deal big time player personnel losses. 3 of CU’s 4 leading scores from this season are already in the transfer portal and won’t play in this game. Starting PG Johnson and Forwards Rancik and Dak are all gone. Those 3 accounted for HALF of the Buffs points this season averaging a combined 40 PPG for a team that averaged 80 PPG. That’s tough to overcome vs a team that is already better by a decent margin in our opinion. The Sooners are 19-15 on the season but they were really good down the stretch winning 8 of their last 11 games after starting the SEC season 1-9. Not only did they win 8 of their last 11, they beat a number of NCAA tournament teams during that stretch including Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M and 6 of those 8 wins came by double digits. 2 of their 3 losses during that stretch came by 4 points or less vs A&M and Arkansas (both tourney teams) and the other loss was @ Tennessee who just played in the Elite 8. Since the Sooners started this run back on February 7th, Torvik analytics has them rated as the 13th best team in the country during that stretch and the 3rd best offense in the country averaging 1.31 PPP. They topped 80 points in all 8 of those wins and eclipsed 90 in 3 of them. OU is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (36th) and facing a Colorado defense that allows opponents to shoot 37% from deep (340th nationally). The one thing they do struggle with, defensive rebounding, shouldn’t be an issue here vs a CU team that ranks 235th on the offensive glass and just lost their best rebounder (Dak) to the portal. Oklahoma has better season long efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively and those stats for CU were with their 3 key players that are now gone and they had only one Quad 1 win all season long even at full strength. OU seems to be all in on this tourney while the Buffaloes look like they are simply playing out the string. Sooners by double digits.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +5.5 at LA Clippers, 11:10pm ET - This game has big implications for each team as the Clippers hold the 8th spot in the Western Conference while the Blazers are 9th. The Clippers won both meetings with Portland earlier this season but that was in late October and late December and a lot has changed since then, especially for L.A. Looking at each teams efficiency stats we find they have the 2nd (Clippers) and 3rd best eDIFF’s over the last 5 games with both teams playing at a high level. Looking at that same 5-game period, the Blazers have the lowest or best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.013-points per possession, which is a major factor when getting these many points in a game. If we go back to each teams previous 10 games, we find the Blazers are playing at a higher level with the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league compared to the Clippers 12th. The Blazers work on the offensive glass in recent weeks has been significantly better than the Clippers too with Portland ranking 3rd in offensive rebound rate compared to the Clippers ranking 23rd. We like those added possessions and scoring possibilities for Portland in this matchup. Portland has covered 4 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court. We will grab the points with the Trailblazers.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +1.5 -125 at Charlotte Hornets, 6:10 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they look to improve seedings in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are the league up-and-comers, while the overlooked Celtics has shocked everyone with their 49-24 record this season. The Celtics will be out for payback here as the Hornets beat them in Boston earlier this month 118-89. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night of 38% overall and just 28% from deep. Those numbers came against a slightly better than average Hornets defense so the logical regression would be for Boston to make more shots here. Plus, the Hornets are coming off a big game yesterday against the 76ers, a 4-point home loss. In fact, the Bugs have played two very big games in a row (faced the Knicks on Thursday) and will have a tough time getting up for the 3rd big game in a row, especially without rest. There is no question the Hornets are playing fantastic basketball right now with a 13-4 SU record in their last 17 games with one of the best +/-‘s in the league, but then why are they a dog in this game? Boston is 23-13 SU on the road this season with the 3rd highest margin of victory of +7.3ppg. Despite their success, the Hornets are only 19-17 SU on their home court this season, 6-14 SU as a home underdog. Boston finds a way to win this road game.

#636 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Vols caught a break in their most recent game getting to face Iowa State without their most important player, Joshua Jefferson, who was out with an ankle injury. Because of that injury to the Cyclones best big man who averaged 17 PPG and 8 RPG this year, ISU was unable to keep up on the boards which is a death sentence vs this Tennessee team. The Vols rebounded a ridiculous 53% of their missed shots which helped lead to 42 points in the paint compared to 30 for Iowa State. Tennessee was +21 overall on the glass which made it nearly impossible for ISU to stay in that game. On top of that, the normally solid shooting ISU team made only 5 of 23 from deep (21%) which was well below their season average of 38% (15th in the nation). The Cyclone shots were solid looks and in fact despite the 16 point loss, Shot Quality post game stats had ISU winning that game. The Vols thrive on the offensive glass for extra opportunities because they aren’t a great shooting team (143rd eFG% and 175th 3 point FG%). That won’t happen here. Michigan is big inside and they are a very good rebounding team. They more than held their own vs the 2 best rebounding teams in the Big 10 (Illinois and MSU) who are very comparable with Tennessee in that regard. Michigan played 3 games vs those 2 teams and had a plus rebounding margin in 2 of those games and were dead even in the other. Other than the offensive glass, where Michigan isn’t that far behind UT, the Wolverines have advantages in pretty much every other key metric. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively (5th in offense & 1st in defense), better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, better FT%, better on the defensive glass, and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. Michigan is the much better team here and they’ve proven it all season vs high level teams going 19-3 in Quad 1 games while Tennessee is 8-10 vs Quad 1 teams. This line is actually a bit short in our opinion as Michigan was just favored by 9.5 (won by 13) vs an Alabama team that is nearly dead even with UT in the KenPom ratings and finished 2 games ahead of the Vols in SEC play. Tennessee was also just a 4.5 to 5 point dog vs an ISU team without their best player. We like Michigan in this spot to win and cover.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -7 over Iowa, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Iowa has been a bit fortunate shooting over 50% in each of the last 2 games to pull out outright wins as underdogs in both vs Florida & Nebraska. In their game on Thursday night vs the Huskers, they hit 52% of their shots (43% from deep) while Nebraska shot just 41% yet the Hawkeyes led for only led for 2 minutes of that game. The Huskers led by 10 with under 5:00 remaining and lost by 6. Iowa’s first lead of the entire game came with 2:10 remaining despite shooting lights out. That was vs a Nebraska team that started the season winning 20 straight games but they weren’t playing all that well down the stretch going just 8-7 their last 15 games. The Illini, on the other hand, dominated a very good Houston team that came into the game with a 30-6 record and 2 of those losses were vs #1 Arizona. On top of that, the game was in Houston so basically a home game for the Cougars. The Illini won by 10 (could have been worse) despite making only 12 of 21 FT’s (57%) and that from a team that hits almost 80% of their freebies on the season. They dominated the glass (+11) vs a very good rebounding team and Houston led for less than 2 minutes of that game. These 2 Big 10 foes met once this season in Iowa City and Illinois won that game by 6 but led by 18 and Iowa never had a lead in that game. Illinois should easily win the battle on the boards in this one (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country) and they should also win at the FT line as the Illini foul less than any other team in the country while still playing great defense. Iowa’s D has solid overall numbers but since February 1st they barely break the top 100 in efficiency. The Hawks are poor defending inside the arc (282nd) and they are facing the tallest team in the country is top 25 in 2 point FG%. Not only that, everyone in the Illinois rotation can make 3’s and we’re not sure how Iowa can slow this offense (#2 nationally in efficiency) down. Illinois has just 8 losses on the season but their record could be better as half of those setbacks (4) came in OT. They are the better team almost across the board and have the talent to win the National Championship. Iowa has 1 great player and a bunch of solid role players and surprisingly have made it this far. It ends here as Illinois wins and covers.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - This line opened with the Blazers -10 and despite more money and bets coming in on Dallas the line has ticked up which is a solid indicator for us to be on Portland. The Blazers have all the incentives in the world to keep playing hard as they sit 9th in the Western Conference but could move up to 7th or 8th with a solid finish to the season. Dallas has nothing to play for other than a better draft position by tanking down the stretch. Portland has won 5 of their last six games with three of those coming by 28 or more points. They put up 134 and 130 in their last two games against similar teams to the Mavs in the Bucks and Nets. The Mavericks are 2-14 SU in their last sixteen games and have the 5th worst Net rating over the last 15 games at minus -12.1. In comparison, the Blazers have the 4th best Net rating over their last 5-games. One thing we know for sure is that the Blazers will show up and play hard tonight. We’d be surprised if Dallas does the same. Bet the home team minus the points in this one.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -8.5 over Alabama, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Bama comes in off an impressive 90-65 win over Texas Tech which has them a bit overvalued in our opinion. This line opened with Michigan favored by 10.5 and has dropped to 8.5 and 9 with bettors jumping on the Tide after watching them roll last weekend. As of this writing on Thursday, Bama is getting over 60% of the tickets so a popular “what have you done for me lately” type dog. In their win over Tech, the Crimson Tide went crazy from 3 hitting 19 triples on 42 attempts (45%) while the Red Raiders made only 4 three point shots in 25 attempts (16%). That means Bama outscored Tech by 45 points from beyond the arc which is a crazy disparity that led to a blowout. It wasn’t as if they got great shots and Tech didn’t. In fact, the Shot Quality stats only had Bama winning that game by 1 point. Tech simply missed a ton of good shots and Bama made most of theirs. We think they regress dramatically here vs a Michigan D that ranks top 30 in the nation defending the arc. If the Tide don’t hit a bunch of 3’s, they are in trouble here as that’s their only chance to keep this tight in our opinion. They’ll get creamed on the interior here, something Texas Tech couldn’t take advantage of with their best interior player JT Toppin out. Michigan hits almost 62% of their shots inside the arc (2nd nationally) and they pull down 35% of their misses on the offensive glass. Facing a poor rebounding Alabama team that ranks 287th in the defensive boards, Michigan should have plenty of 2nd chance points. What could help even that out would be turnovers as Michigan has struggled with that on the offensive end (164th in offensive turnover rate). However, the Crimson Tide doesn’t even attempt to create turnovers ranking 358th (out of 365) in defensive turnover rate so without that, the Wolverines will have a solid shot volume advantage. Michigan has advantages across the board in this game and they even shoot the 3 better than Alabama (the just don’t take as many). Again, the Tide will shoot a ton of triples and if they even shoot their average (36%), we think Michigan still wins and covers. If they go nuts and hit a high percentage again, then we’re in trouble. Let’s also keep in mind they are still without their best 3 point shooter Holloway who is suspended. This game is eerily similar to last season’s NCAA tourney when Alabama went nuts vs BYU making 25 of 51 triples in a big win and then the next game they ran into a #1 seed Duke and lost by 20 because they hit only 25% from deep. We feel the value is now on Michigan (18-3 vs Quad 1 teams – Bama is 8-7) now that the line has dropped to single digits. Lay it.

#619 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +8 over Arizona, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET - Razorback head coach John Calpari has been a master in the underdog role in the tourney. He’s been a dog 13 times in the Big Dance with a 9-3-1 ATS record and as a dog of 4 points or more his teams are 7-1 ATS. The Razors are playing as well as they have all season with 7 straight wins which is a key factor here. That’s because teams that are on at least a 6 game winning streak and tabbed as underdogs in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are huge money makers sitting at 41-16 ATS since 2005. That system has been even better as of late with those teams going 23-5 ATS since 2015! Arkansas can score in bunches which will make it tough for Zona to pull away here. The Razorbacks average 90 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 80 points in all but 7 of their 36 games this season. They rank 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, 15th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, 1st in offensive turnover rate, and they make 75% of their FT’s. They also have one of the best shot makers in CBB in PG Acuff. All of those offensive numbers make it very tough to beat this team period and especially by margin. The Wildcats have all the pressure in this one as the #1 seed. They’ve been great under head coach Tommy Lloyd early in the dance (8-1 SU in first 2 rounds) but they are 0-3 SU in the Sweet 16 under Lloyd. Arizona has had an easy path to this point (as expected for a #1 seed) beating 16 seed LIU and 9 seed Utah State. In their game vs USU, the Cats won by 12 but had some huge advantages hitting 41% of their triples to just 25% for the Aggies. They also corralled a ridiculous 55% of their missed shots and attempted 39 FTs (made 27) to just 11 attempts (8 made) for USU. Even with that it was still just a 12 point game. The Cats are an impressive 34-2 on the season, but vs high level teams (top 25 KenPom) they’ve rarely been able to win big with only 3 of their 11 games vs those teams decided by more than 10 points (Arkansas is 17th). If the Razors can be at least respectable on the defensive glass, this one should be close throughout. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9:40pm ET - We faded the Rockets successfully in their last game against the Bulls and it paid off nicely with Chicago winning outright as an +8-point dog. Houston hasn’t been great on the road recently with a 2-5 SU record away from home in their last seven. One of those two wins came against the Wizards who are the worst team in the NBA. Minnesota is playing without Anthony Edwards and actually playing well. The ball movement on offense has been much better and everyone is contributing. Minnesota is coming off a win in Boston a few nights ago and are 4-2 SU in their last six games. The Wolves have won 7 of their last ten games at home and have an average margin of victory at home in March of +5.3ppg. These two teams have near identical offensive/defensive efficiency numbers overall on the season, but we are getting the Wolves at home as a dog when clearly they should be the favorite here, even without ANT. Minnesota has been a home dog just 11 times in the last two seasons and they have a +5.5ppg scoring differential in those games. This is a massive game for both teams when it comes to playoff seedings with Minnesota 5th and Houston 6th but just a .5 game back. Bet Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Phoenix Suns, 11pm ET - The Nuggets are as healthy as they’ve been all season and we predict they’ll be a tough out in the West come playoff time. Phoenix is still missing a few key components with Brooks and Williams out and several others listed as day-to-day as we write this. The Suns are 7th in the West, 3.5 games behind the Rockets in the 6th seed but 4.5 games up on the Clippers. Denver sits 4th in the West (key for home court in the 1st round) but barely ahead of the Rockets and tied with the Wolves. Phoenix had lost 5 straight games before beating the Raptors at home 120-98. The Suns shot insanely well at 52% overall and hit 18/40 3-pointers. Denver has won 2 straight games and 3 of their last four, and 5 of their last seven. Four of those wins came against current playoff teams, one of which was against the Spurs in San Antonio. Denver has owned this series with 4 straight wins dating back to the end of last season. One of the Nuggets wins this season was in Phoenix by 18-points. A great indicator of how these teams are currently playing is their efficiency differentials with the Nuggets at +8.3 in their last 5 games, the Suns are -0.4 eDIFF. We will lay the short number with Denver.

#604 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -10.5 over St Joes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - St Joes NIT run continues with their 3rd straight game on the West Coast. They played @ Colorado State last Wednesday (won by 5), @ California on Sunday (won by 1) and now @ New Mexico just 48 hours later. Tough situational spot for the Hawks. They did win 76-75 @ Cal on Sunday but had to use a lot of energy as they rallied from a 19 point 2nd half deficit. All 5 starters play 30+ minutes in that come from behind win and now play in high altitude which won’t help. Not only did the Bears lead by 19 in the 2nd half, they held a 14 point lead with under 8:00 remaining the game and scored only 5 points in the final 8:17 of that one. Cal also played without one of their best players and 3rd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder John Camden. New Mexico is in a much better situation playing their 3rd straight home game and their first 2 were blowouts. They topped Sam Houston St by 24 (rated almost the same as St Joes per KenPom) and George Washington by 25 (rated 20 spots higher than St Joes). They’ve been able to spread out their minutes nicely with 8 players getting double digit minutes in both wins. They played their game on Sunday without one of their best players (Albury) and still won easily and he should be back for this one. Both teams should a lot of 3’s but the Lobos are much better at hitting those shots and better at defending them. They rank top 50 in the country hitting 36% of their triples while St Joes is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting just 30% (329th). The New Mexico D is top 20 defending the arc as well allowing opponents to make just 30% from deep. The Lobos are also the better rebounding team and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively and the Lobos have a huge home court advantage winning 32 of their last 36 at the Pit. 22 of those 32 wins have come by double digits and we expect another here. Lay it with New Mexico on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +8.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - This time of the season it’s very hard to back a bad team like Chicago but we’ll make an exception today given the scheduling circumstances. Houston is coming off a very tough home stretch which saw them play two games against the Lakers, one versus Atlanta and then another, last second win over the Heat. Now they are travelling to Chicago to face a 28-42 SU Bulls team, and they have a massive game on deck in Minnesota on Wednesday. The Bulls meanwhile have been March 19th or last Thursday and could be getting some key pieces back tonight. Chicago is a respectable 17-20 SU on their home court and 12-10 ATS as a home dog with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg which is good enough for a cover in this one. On that note, the Rockets are 11-16 ATS as a road chalk with an average MOV of +4.0ppg. Chicago is 9-5 ATS with 2 or more days of rest this season. In their last game the Bulls were +9.5 at home against a similar Cavs team which finished with a 110-115 score and cover for the home team. We like the situation for the Bulls to hand around in this one.

#816 ASA PLAY ON Virginia +1.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - Vols are off a 20+ point win vs an outmanned Miami OH team on Friday. That’s a signal we watch for in the Big Dance was teams that win by 20 or more in the round of 64 are just 25-44 ATS (36%) in the round of as long at their opponent is not off a 20+ point win. That’s always a solid starting point for us but not an automatic play as we like to dig deeper into the match up and then decide. Not only does that strong system apply, but we don’t like this match up for Tennessee. The Vols are not a great shooting team ranking 156th in eFG% and 184th from beyond the arc hitting 33%. They get many of their points on 2nd chances as they often dominated the offensive glass (#1 in the country). That’s what the did on Friday vs a small Miami team hauling down 43% of their misses which helped lead to more FG attempts for the Vols. Here they face a solid rebounding team who is actually in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding as well so that shouldn’t be a huge advantage for Tennessee. The Vols shot lights out yesterday hitting 53% overall and 45% from deep (well above their season averages) vs a sub par Miami D (152nd in defensive efficiency). Big step up here facing a Virginia defense that ranks 16th in efficiency, 5th in eFG% allowed, and 2nd in blocked shot percentage. On offense the Cavs have a solid advantage in eFG%, 3 point FG%, 2 point FG% and FT%. UVA got a bit of a scare yesterday beating Wright State which was actually like when facing a team that cruised from start to finish. This Virginia team doesn’t get talked about much but they only have 2 losses since January 27th, both vs Duke and in the ACC tourney they went to the wire with the Blue Devils winning by 4. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes picked up a spread win Friday, however historically he is one of the worst NCAA tourney ATS coach ever with a 24-38 ATS record. We’ll fade him here and take UVA plus the points.

#818 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -7.5 over Miami FL, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET - We’re getting a huge edge in coaching experience here which is always big in the NCAA tourney. Purdue coach Matt Painter has been a head coach for 22 years with Southern Illinois and Purdue and he has 25 NCAA tourney wins. He’s been fantastic in the round of 64 and round of 32 with a 23-7 ATS record which is the best all time for coaches with at least 20 NCAA games under their belt. Miami’s coach is Jai Lucus who is in his first year as a head coach and has 1 NCAA win which was Friday vs Missouri. The Canes won that game 80-66 but that final score did not tell the whole story. The game was much closer than that. Neither team led by more than 10 until Miami took a 12 point lead with 1:30 left in the game. They led by only 5 points with less than 3:00 remaining. Mizzou shot just 35% for the game (Miami hit 43%) and the Canes, who normally shoot 35% from deep, hit 46% of their triples. One concern in this game is Miami is not a good FT shooting team at 68% (321st nationally) and they made only 12 of 21 from the charity stripe on Friday. That can be a killer in the NCAA tourney, especially when playing a better team and needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Purdue is the highest rated team the Canes have played since November when they lost by double digits vs Florida. They avoided Duke all together in ACC play this year and when facing the 2nd highest rated team in the league, Virginia, they lost both games. On Sunday they face a red hot and extremely veteran Purdue team. The Boilers seemed to sleep walk through the regular season at times but once tourney time hit, they have been locked in. In the Big 10 tourney they beat 3 NCAA tourney teams in a row topping Nebraska by 14, UCLA by 7, and Michigan by 8, all rated higher than this Miami team per KenPom. The offense has been humming putting up 1.22, 1.22, and 1.28 PPP in those 3 games vs 3 of the best defensive teams in the country. In their NCAA opener they put up 104 points on 1.54 PPP vs Queens and were able to spread their minutes out with only 1 starter logging more than 25 minutes. They now rank as the #1 offense in the country (efficiency) and they are scorching from deep making almost 39% on the season (12th in the nation). The Canes defensive weakness is guarding the arc ranking 274th in the country. Purdue’s offense has been rolling but their defense has been locked in as well. After allowing 97 points to Wisconsin in their season finale, coach Painter had a “heart to heart” with his team and they have since allowed 67 PPG their last 5 with 3 of those coming vs high level offensive teams. Their big 3 seniors (Smith, Loyer, and Kaufmann-Renn) have combined to play in 34 NCAA tourney games and they are locked in right now. Let’s lay it with Purdue.

#786 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -11 over High Point, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - High Point upset Wisconsin on Thursday as a double digit underdog (+10.5). Historically, teams that pull that off in the round of 64 are auto fades in the round of 32. In fact, since 2005 those teams are just 4-20 SU and only 8-16 ATS in their 2nd round game. On top of that, if those teams receive more than 50% of the bets in the round of 32 (tickets) they are just 4-13 ATS so we’ll keep an eye on that heading into Saturday night. High Point was a bit fortunate to come away with that win over the Badgers. They led for only 6% of the time and trailed by 8 with 5:00 minutes remaining and their win probability at that point per KenPom was just 2.9%. The Panthers also won the battle on the offensive glass grabbing 30% of their miss while Wisconsin pulled down only 19%. That was an unexpected stat as High Point isn’t great on the offensive boards but they had the benefit of Wisconsin’s best big man and rebounder, Nolan Winter, on a minutes limit returning from an ankle injury for the first time since March 4th. The Panthers had A LOT of things go right down the stretch to win that game. Arkansas rolled over a solid mid major Hawaii team (24-9 record) winning by 19 in a game the Rainbows never led. The Razors match up very well with High Point as the Panthers pressure defense (#5 in opponent turnover rate) won’t cut it here as Arkansas has a great back court and ranks #1 in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. Arky is a high level offense ranked 4th nationally in efficiency and they defend the 3 well allowing opponents to shoot 31%. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Acuff) and both teams play fast (top 45 in tempo) giving the better team a solid chance to widen the margin. Arkansas rolls.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +2 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This is a great scenario to back the Heat on the road in what we expect to be a win by a comfortable margin. Houston played last night and beat the Hawks at home. That win came after a pair of losses at home to the Lakers, who coincidentally just beat this Heat team in Miami. Not only is Houston playing the 2nd night of a back to back, but they are also playing their 4th games in six days. When playing without rest the Rockets have a 5-6 ATS record this season and a negative scoring differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston is one of the worst home favorites this season at 13-19 ATS, Miami as a road dog is 14-11 ATS. Miami is nearly back to full strength with Herro and Powell back in the lineup and are desperate to move up to the 6th seed or better in the East to avoid the play-in scenario. The Heat have lost 3-straight including the other night when they lost by 8-points to the Lakers who made 34/45 free throws compared to the Heat's 18/22. Houston allows the 25th most points off turnovers this season, ranks 22nd in opponents 2nd chance points and are average or 15th in fast break points allowed. Miami is the fastest paced team in the league and rank top 7 offensively in points off turnovers, 2nd chance points and transition scoring. These two teams recently met in Miami with the Heat winning by 10-points, 115-105. We expect a similar margin of victory in this game by the Heat in Houston.

#787 ASA PLAY ON Texas +6.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - This Texas team is dangerous right now. They’ve topped NC State and BYU so far in the Dance and really dominated both games. They beat the Wolfpack by 2 but dominated the game leading for 88% of the minutes. In last night’s 79-71 win over BYU they led for 99% of the game with the Cougars leading for a grand total of 45 seconds. Gonzaga struggled a bit with Kennesaw State on Thursday winning by 9 as a 20 point favorite with their largest lead of the game being 14 points. We think the Zags are absolutely beatable as they’ve had a number of tight games down the stretch with 4 of their last 7 wins coming by single digits vs mainly not great competition. While Texas was facing high level opponents (15th strength of schedule), the Zags have only faced 2 teams rated in the top 100 since mid December (Santa Clara & St Mary’s) and both of those teams have already been ousted for the NCAA tourney. The Bulldogs are overseeded in our opinion and since February 1st they are just the 28th best team in the country per Torvik analytics (Texas is 40th). The Longhorns are a dangerous dog because they have a high level offense. They rank 18th in offensive efficiency, 27th in FG% and put up 83 PPG. The Horns also get to the FT line at the 3rd highest rate in the country and they make 75% as a team while Gonzaga is 276th highest rate. Texas is 10-5 ATS as a dog and we think they have a shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over Cal Baptist, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - We love this spot for KU. They are coming off an embarrassing 22 point loss vs Houston in the Big 12 tourney which usually sets up nicely in the Big Dance. Teams off 20+ point losses in their most recent game are an impressive 28-14 ATS (67%) in their opening NCAA tourney game. The Jayhawks should be highly motivated here. This is a terrible match up for Cal Baptist who won the WAC. They are a very small team ranking 312th in average height facing a Kansas team who is 24th in average height and should destroy them on the boards. The Lancers take very few 3 point shots (328th in percentage of shots from deep) and have zero shot to score a bunch of points inside the paint vs the Jayhawks who are 6th in the country in blocked shot percentage. CB is not a great shooting team sitting outside the top 300 in eFG%. Their best player is 5’10 Dominique Daniels who will have a hard time outside vs KU’s lengthy and good defensive guards and if he gets to the rim, his shots have a good chance of getting swatted. They rely on a lot of 1 on 1 offense as they rank 361st (out of 365) in assists per FG made and that won’t work vs KU. They also turn the ball over at a high rate of 18%. Defensively the Lancers have solid numbers on the season but they’ve played mainly low tier offensive teams (average rank 267th offensive efficiency). They faced 3 power conference teams this season, all from the Big 12, allowing 91 points vs BYU (lost by 30), 91 points vs a bad Utah team, and 78 points vs Colorado. KU will have, by far, the best player on the court in potential #1 pick in the draft (Peterson) and we think they roll in this one.

#764 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -24.5 over Tennessee State, Friday at 2:50 PM ET - Tennessee State faced the 325th most difficult schedule this season and now they take a huge jump up vs Iowa State who sits at 6th nationally per KenPom. The Tigers faced one top 50 team all season and lost that game by 29 points vs Tennessee and turned the ball over at a 28% rate in that game. That’s not idea vs ISU. The most important thing an opposing offense better be able to do vs this high level ISU defense (4th nationally in efficiency) is protect the ball. The Cyclones create turnovers at a 22% rate on the season (4th most in the country) which leads to extra possessions. TSU ranks just 170th in offensive turnover rate despite facing only 1 team all season long ranked in the top 50 in defensive turnover rate. That’s not a good recipe for success for the Tigers in this game. Offensively the Clones have a huge advantage ranking top 30 in both FG% and 3 point FG% despite facing a slate of defenses with an average rank of 20th nationally (efficiency). TSU ranks 140th in FG% and 237th in 3 point FG% and that was facing an average defensive rank of 250th. The Tigers take very few 3’s (344th in percentage of 3 point shots taken) and they don’t shoot them well. If an underdog can hit 3’s at a high rate, upsets can happen but that doesn’t apply here. For the season, Iowa State has an average adjusted PPP of +32 points per 100 possessions while TSU has a negative value in that metric. The Cyclones have shown they have no problem pounding lower level opponents winning all 8 of their games vs non-top 150 opponents by at least 25 points. Let’s lay it.

#742 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Akron, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Akron is one of the popular, public dogs sitting with almost 70% of the ticket as of this writing on Thursday. However, despite that this line hasn’t moved in inch with Tech still favored by -7.5 which was also the opener. We like the fact that the Red Raiders are coming in off 3 straight losses (extra focus & motivation) and their last lost was in blowout fashion getting rocked by Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney by 22 points. This situation is always something we look for in the round of 64 as teams off 20+ losses are 28-14 ATS in their round 1 tourney game back to 2005. Akron is solid, however they don’t have a single win over a Quad 1 or 2 team (0-4 record). The Zips are one of the smallest teams in the country (350th in average height) which is great news for Tech who has struggled on the defensive boards at times vs big, physical teams. That shouldn’t be an issue here. Many are discounted this Red Raider team because they lost key starter JT Toppin back in mid February. Since losing Toppin, this team went to Iowa State and won and they still rank as the 14th best team in the country and 5th best offense per Torvik analytic since Feb 18th (the day after Toppin was injured). Both teams shoot a bunch of 3’s but Tech as the advantage ranking 4th best 3 point shooting team in the country hitting almost 40% and facing an Akron D that ranks 252nd. The Akron D also allows teams to take 3’s (303rd in opponent shot attempt percentage from 3) which is a good strategy vs Texas Tech. The Zips are also a good 3 point shooting team (14th) but the Raiders defend the arc at a much higher level (45th) while allowing opponents to shoot only 35% of their attempts from deep (49th). Akron faced 1 power conference team this season and lost by 18 vs Purdue. This line is short per our power ratings and we’ll grab Texas Tech.

#716 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -1.5 over St Louis, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET - These 2 teams were heading in opposite directions over the last month or so. UGA won 5 of their last 7 games including wins over Bama, Texas, and Kentucky, all NCAA tourney teams. Their losses during that stretch were by 8 @ Vandy and by 4 in the SEC tournament vs a red hot Ole Miss team who also topped Texas & Alabama in the conference tourney before losing in OT to eventual champ Arkansas. The Billikens were 24-1 heading into mid February but finished just 4-4 over their final 8 games. Still a great season but this team simply isn’t playing very well right now. How far have they dropped off? For the season on Torvik analytics, St Louis ranks as the 48th most efficient offense, 61st defensively, and 45 overall as a team. Since mid February, those numbers are 109th, 218th, and 149th respectively. The defense sitting at 218th during that span is very concerning vs a UGA offense that ranks 18th nationally in efficiency for the season and since mid February the Bulldogs are ranked as the 3rd most efficient offense in the country (and 26th overall team rating). St Louis has had problems with high pressure defenses that create turnovers. UGA is just that. They rank in the top 75 nationally in creating turnovers and this will be the most athletic team STL has seen this season. There are just 2 teams in the A10 that are top 75 at creating turnovers and St Louis had a record of 1-3 vs those teams (Dayton & Rhode Island) and had an offensive turnover rate of 22% or higher in 3 of those games. Georgia has better efficiency margins (offense minus defense) than St Louis this year despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Bulldogs also have had an extra few days off after losing last Thursday in the SEC tourney while STL played on Saturday. We think this line is too short and Georgia gets the win and cover.

#732 ASA PLAY ON Houston -23.5 over Idaho, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Idaho got hot and had an impressive 4 game run in the Big Sky Tourney to get here but the fact is they were just 9-9 in conference play in the regular season finishing in 7th place in the 10 team conference. Now they run into a physical buzzsaw and they’ve seen nothing close to this Houston team this season. In fact, Idaho played only one top 100 team all season long and lost by 15 to Notre Dame who was the 4th lowest rated team in the ACC and finished with a 4-14 conference record. We know Houston doesn’t have any problem pummeling inferior teams into submission. Their last 2 NCAA opening round games the Cougars won by margins of 38 and 40 points and they’ve won by margins of at least 29 points in 4 of their last 6 NCAA tourney openers! The Houston defense should fluster this Idaho offense with their athleticism, length and ability to create turnovers (11th best in the nation). The Vandals offense ranks outside the top 200 in FG% and they sit at 176th in offensive efficiency despite playing 19 teams this year with defenses ranked outside the top 200. Only 1 team in the Big Sky was ranked inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and that was Portland State who held Idaho to 66 and 67 points winning both games. Now they face a defense that is a gigantic step up from Portland State with Houston ranking 5th nationally in efficiency. The Cougs offense should also roll here as they averaged 77 PPG this year vs a set of defenses whose average rank was 24th which is light years better than this Idaho defense. The Vandals didn’t have a single player on the 1st or 2nd team All Conference teams in the Big Sky while Houston has 4 players projected to go in this year’s NBA Draft including a lottery pick (Kingston Flemings). The Big Sky has been overwhelmed in the Big Dance with a 3-14-1 ATS the last 18 years and if Houston comes to play, as we expect they will, this will get ugly.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -25 over Penn, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - Illinois took a number of lower level teams to the woodshed this season and we think it happens again on Thursday night. They are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 15 or more points and they covered 5 games when favored by more than 20 points. They played only 5 games this season vs teams ranked outside the top 150 per KenPom which is where Penn sits and in the games the Illini beat Jackson St by 58, Florida Gulf Coast by 43, LIU (who’s in the NCAA tourney) by 40, Southern by 35, and Colgate by 19. Illinois is the 2nd most efficient offense in the entire country, a top 5 offensive rebounding team, they send teams to the FT line at the lowest rate in the country and they make 79% of their FT’s. This is the tallest team in the country and should completely control the glass here vs a Penn which should lead to a lot of 2nd chance points. They will carve up a Penn defense that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency while facing a set of offenses whose average efficiency ranking this year was 160th. Fran McCaffrey is the head coach now at Penn and he was at Iowa prior. The Illini thrashed his defenses at Iowa for an average of 84 PPG over the last 5 seasons. The Quaker offense won’t get much in the paint with the Illinois length and they won’t get many FT opportunities vs this D that doesn’t foul which we discussed above. They’ll need to get red hot from deep to keep this within shouting distance but will be playing this game without their leading scorer Ethan Roberts (17 PPG) who is a sharp shooter from deep (40%). On top of that, their 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder, TJ Power, has an illness and hasn’t been practicing this week so he is questionable and may not be 100% even if he does play. Teams coming off a loss as a favorite (Illinois) have been very good in their opening NCAA game with a 24-11 ATS record. The Illini roll.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8pm ET - This sets up perfectly with the Heat desperate for a win – at home – off a pair of losses and now facing a Lakers team off a big game last night in Houston. L.A. has played three monster games in a row, two against the Rockets, one versus Denver, and will have a tough time finding their legs for this non-conference showdown. You may be surprised to know the Lakers are just 6-9 SU as a road dog this season with an average loss margin of minus -7.9ppg. Miami is 23-12 SU at home on the season and have won 7 of their last eight in South Beach. The Heat have the 6th best average point differential at home of +6.1ppg on the year. The Lakers are playing well right now but this isn’t a great situation for them and their defense (20th in efficiency ratings) will have a tough time slowing down the Heat who play at the fastest rate in the league and rank 13th in offensive efficiency. Let’s face it, the Lakers still have a big target on their backs and the Heat will be up for this one and back to near 100% health with Herro and Powell back in the lineup. Miami is 17-13 SU off a loss with an average +/- of +3.1ppg. We will lay it here with Miami.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Vanderbilt -11.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET - McNeese had the potential to pull an upset in this round if they got matched up with the right opponent. This is not the right opponent. It’s a bad match up for the Cowboys. McNeese is not a great shooting team, especially from beyond the arc where they rank 315th making only 31%, so much of their offense is predicated on their defense creating turnovers. They do that very well. In fact, they are #1 in the nation causing opponents to turn the ball over almost 25% of the time. Problem with this game is, Vandy has an elite backcourt and they turn the ball over only 13% of the time which is 11th best nationally. We don’t see the Cowboys pressure causing big problems for the Commodores and if that’s the case, McNeese will have trouble staying in this game. Vandy is an elite offense ranking 7th nationally in efficiency and as we said their guards are outstanding. Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner, who combined to average 36 PPG and both shoot very well from deep. They both have outstanding assist to turnover ratios as well. The Commodores have a solid offensive edge here and they hit 79% of their FT’s as well. McNeese faced 1 top 20 offense this season (efficiency) and in that game Michigan lit them up for 112 points. Cowboy head coach Bill Armstrong is in his first year with the program and has never been a head coach at the collegiate level. Vandy coach Mark Byington has NCAA tourney experience taking his James Madison teams to the Dance plus he led Vanderbilt here last year and they lost by 3 in the opening round vs St Mary’s. They are also coming off a loss as a favorite in the SEC Tourney Championship games and teams entering the dance off a loss as a favorite are 24-11 ATS the last 3 years. Vandy a number of great wins over NCAA tourney teams including Florida (1-seed), Tennessee (twice), Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M, SMU, Georgia, VCU and St Mary’s while McNeese has played 2 tourney teams this year and lost by double digits to both (Michigan & Santa Clara). The Commodores are underseeded here as they rank 12th per KenPom (which would make them a potential 3 seed, not a 5 seed) and they are the 2nd highest rated team in the SEC behind only Florida. They are rated higher than 5 teams that sit on the 3 and 4 line. We like Vandy to bounce back from their loss vs Arkansas over the weekend and get a nice win and cover here.

#720 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over TCU, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - OSU sits almost 20 spots higher than TCU in the KenPom ratings and they are surging late as they are now healthy. Top guard Mobley and big man Tilly have missed some time but they are back and healthy. They both played in the Big 10 tourney and took Michigan to the wire before losing 71-67 and Shot Quality score actually had OSU winning that game using their post-game stats and shot selection. Speaking of surging, Torvik metrics has OSU 26th on the season (TCU 49th) but since mid February he has the Buckeyes as the 5th best team in the country. Since mid February the Bucks have crushed Wisconsin, lost @ Michigan State by 6, topped Purdue by 8, crushed Indiana, beat Iowa in the Big 10 tourney and lost a tight game to Michigan. They also lost @ Iowa during that stretch which was their one outlier and they played that game without starting center Tilly. OSU has the much better backcourt with Thornton and Mobley and they have the best player on the floor with Thornton. They have a huge edge offensively coming in as the 16th most efficient offense and the 17th best eFG% team with TCU ranking 81st and 201st in those metrics. Ohio St is also top 60 in the nation in 3 point FG% and top 50 in 3 point FG% D while TCU is 223rd and 170th in those key stats. The Buckeyes also hit almost 78% of their FT’s with the Horned Frogs hitting 71%. The Frogs have won 9 of their last 11 but all but 2 of those wins were vs lower tier Big 12 teams who are not in the tourney. They aren’t great offensively and on defense they thrive on turnovers which we don’t think will be a huge issue here vs OSU’s high level backcourt. Short number and we’ll lay it.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Colorado State -6.5 over St Joes, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - We like this St Joes team and used them twice in the A10 tourney, but this is a really rough spot for them. They lost to VCU on Saturday (in Pittsburgh) dashing their NCAA tourney hopes and now have to travel west to face Colorado State just a few days later. The Hawks have a very short rotation (312th nationally in bench minutes) and now must play an 11 PM ET game in high altitude. Far from ideal. The Hawks made 1 trip to the west coast this year to play UNLV and lost by 14. The same UNLV team that lost both games vs Colorado State this year and sits more than 20 spots behind the Rams in KenPom’s ratings. CSU was ousted from the Mountain West tourney last Thursday so they’ve had extra time to rest and they get this one at home. The Rams played the tougher strength of schedule and had 6 wins vs Quad 1 & 2 teams this year while St Joes only had 2. While STJ is solid defensively, the Rams have a huge edge on offense ranking 10th nationally in eFG% and 7th in the country hitting 39% of their triples. The Hawks rank 278th and 325th in those 2 stats respectively. CSU also has an advantage at the FT line where they hit 77% as a team (74% for St Joes) and they get to the line more frequently. At home the Rams shoot over 50% and average 80 PPG this season while St Joes makes only 41% of their shots (just 30% from 3) and averages 69 PPG on the road. We just don’t see the Hawks being able to play their “A” game on the road in this situation. Take Colorado State.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:30pm ET - There is a valid reason for this number being inflated like it is but based on our calculations it’s still not high enough to not take the Blazers. The Pacers are in a horrible situation here coming off a game last night in New York. The Knicks are a big rival and the Pacers put everything into that game and still got blown out 136-110. Now the Pacers travel home to face a rested Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives. Indiana will be playing their 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days and 5th in seven days. All this with a depleted roster. Portland was just favored by -11-points at Brooklyn and won by 9-points, but the Nets weren’t in this bad scheduling spot. Indiana 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS with an average loss margin of -12.7ppg when playing without rest. Portland has the 7th best efficiency differential in the NBA over the last 5 games, Indiana has the 6th worst. The Blazers win this game by 15+ points.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9:40pm ET - Everyone knows the Lakers are a public team and one of the NBA’s casual bettors-backed teams. Today they are getting a large volume of tickets on them, but the money is coming in on Houston. We like this low number with the home team in a pivotal showdown for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. The Lakers currently sit 3rd in the West, the Rockets are 4th, just a half game behind them. Denver and Minnesota are only 2-games behind Houston which is rather important for home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. The Lakers have won 8 of their last ten games but 7 of those came at home. The Lakers have had a favorable stretch of games with this being only their 4th road game in their last nineteen games. Houston is coming off a close win over the Pelicans 107-105 but played without Sengun who was rested for a minor back injury. He is listed as questionable, but we expect him back here. The Rockets have won 6 of their last eight games at home with an average point differential of plus +9.5ppg. These two teams are relatively even on offense for the season with the Lakers averaging 1.177-points per possession, the Rockets average 1.180ppp. The glaring difference between the two teams comes on the defensive end of the court where the Rockets allow just 1.131ppp, the Lakers give up 1.168ppp which ranks 21st in the league. Houston is 23-8 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +6.6 which is enough to get a cover here against the Lakers.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 6pm ET - This line has been exaggerated with the injuries to the 76ers so we’ll grab the value with the home team. Should Portland really be laying this big of a number on the road against anyone other than the bottom four teams in the league? We don’t think so. Philadelphia barely beat the Nets last time out but they led by as many as 28-points in the game and just had a tough time closing the game out late. The Sixers last 5 wins have come against similar teams to the Blazers and their losses have come against some of the best teams in the league (Pistons, Cavs, Spurs, Celtics and a red-hot Hawks). Portland on the other hand is 5-5 SU in their last ten games but four of the wins were against Utah, Indiana, Memphis and Chicago. Granted, the 76ers are missing 4 of five starters in this one but the lineup they put on the floor of Edgecombe, Grimes, Edwards, Barlow and Bona are better than a team that would be +11.5 points on a neutral floor. Portland is 4-4 SU in their last eight road games with an average point differential of minus -4.1ppg. We’re happy to grab this generous number with the Sixers.

#645 ASA PLAY ON Vanderbilt -1.5 over Arkansas, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We were on Arkansas yesterday in what we thought was a perfect spot and they came up short with a win but no cover. They struggled to put away an Ole Miss team that was playing their 4th game in 4 days and was due for some regression. The Rebels got whipped on the boards, as we expected, but they had another stellar shooting day hitting 50% of their shots losing by 3 in OT. The Razors had 4 players log 40+ minutes yesterday including star freshman Acuff who put it 40 minutes the night before as well vs Oklahoma. He’s already banged up and going 40 minutes 3 straight days might not be in the cards. Arky has had the much easier path to this game topping Oklahoma and Ole Miss although both games were very tight and down to the wire. Vandy, on the other hand, had to face Tennessee and Florida and really controlled both games vs high level opponents. In their game yesterday vs the Gators, who were battling for a potential #1 seed in the Dance, the Commodores won by 17 and led for all but 2 minutes. They were up by 25 at one point on a Florida team that came into the game on a 12 game winning streak. While both of these teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, Vandy should be the fresher team as they were able to spread their minutes out better than Arkansas and the Razorbacks went to OT yesterday. Offensively, these team were dead even in efficiency this season averaging 1.27 PPP. However on defense, the Commodores were top 30 in efficiency while Arkansas sits outside the top 50. Vanderbilt also has the better defensive numbers for eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, and defensive turnover rate. They also make 79% of their FT’s and they which could be huge in a tight game (they are 43 of 49 from the charity stripe in this tourney). The one thing Vandy can struggle with is the defensive glass but Arkansas is not a great offensive rebounding team (10th in the SEC) so that shouldn’t be a huge factor. Lastly, while this is obviously a big game for both teams, Vanderbilt may have a little extra something in this one after getting crushed 93-68 in their only meeting this year @ Arkansas. We’ll lay the short number here.

#616 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -9.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - How much does this Ole Miss team have left in the tank? This will be their 4th game in 4 days as they were dogs vs Texas, Georgia, and Bama and pulled upsets in each. The last 2 games both went to the wire as they topped UGA by 4 and Alabama by 1 with the Tide getting a point blank shot blocked in the final few seconds. There has been some big time 3 point variance in this tourney for the Rebels. In their last 2 games, they shot almost 44% from beyond the arc which is well above their SEC average of 32% which ranked them 15th in the conference. Their 2 opponents, Bama and UGA who ranked 3rd the 5th in the SEC in 3 point FG%, hit just 18 of 67 triples combined (26%) vs a Mississippi D that ranked 9th in the league in 3 point defense. Today they face a much fresher Arkansas team that has played only 1 game in this tourney. They got a bit of a scare last night beating a red hot Oklahoma team by 3. Nothing to be ashamed of as the Sooners were playing at a top 25 level (per Torvik analytics) since February 1st. These 2 met once this season with the Razorbacks pulling off a 7 point win @ Ole Miss despite the Rebels hitting 51% of their shots. Arkansas star PG Acuff missed the season finale @ Missouri and they still won that game. He was back yesterday and put up 37 points and he ate up Mississippi’s D in the first meeting with 26 points and 9 assists. We’re actually getting some value on Arkansas here at -9.5. Ole Miss was +12 yesterday vs Alabama who ranks almost identical to the Razors per KenPom. And it’s an even better spot to fade the Rebs playing 4 games in 4 days. Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC behind Florida and ranked as the 2nd best in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 2nd in 3 point FG%, 2nd in 2 point FG%, and 1st in offensive turnover rate. Ole Miss has had a nice little run in this tourney but they were the 3rd worst team in the SEC this year ahead of only South Carolina and Mississippi State (per KenPom). They only won 4 games the entire season in the SEC and now have won 3 in 3 days. It ends here and Arkansas rolling to an easy win.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 3:30pm ET - We like this Hornets team and what they’ve done this season and expect them to be a tough out in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but this is going to be a tall task to win in San Antonio Saturday. Charlotte is coming off two straight road wins over the Kings and Blazers (yawn). Prior to that they lost in Phoenix as a +5.5-point dog, 99-111. In other words, the Spurs, who might be the best team in the NBA, are favored by the same number at home as the Suns were just a few nights ago. Plus, we have the Spurs coming off a home loss the other night to Denver, a game in which they led by as many as 20-points. San Antonio is 11-7 ATS when coming off a loss this season with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. While Charlotte is 8-2 SU in their last ten games, only one of those wins came against a team with a .500 record or better. In fact three of those wins came against the Kings, Pacers and Wizards, the three worst teams in the league. The Spurs are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games with the two losses to the Knicks and Nuggets who are both better than this Charlotte team. In their last 15 games the Spurs are 13-2 SU with an average point differential of +12.7ppg – the best number in the NBA. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team overall at 45.9% (26th) but do hit 37.9% from the 3-point line and rely heavily on their 3PT shooting. San Antonio allows the 4th lowest FG% in the league at 45.2% and the 12th lowest 3PT% at 35.5% which will make scoring tough for Charlotte. On the opposite end of the court the Spurs should have their way offensively against the Hornets D that ranks 16th in overall defensive efficiency allowing 1.152-points per possession. Wemby is questionable tonight but even if he doesn’t play we like the Spurs in this matchup.

#804 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -1.5 over Davidson, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Davidson survived yesterday Loyola Chicago 64-59 in OT. That 5 point margin was actually Davidson’s largest lead of the game. The Ramblers came into the game as the last place and lowest rated team (280th nationally) in the A10 and nearly lost despite Loyola shooting 39% overall, 26% from deep, and making 7 fewer FT’s. Speaking of FT’s, Davidson was +7 from the line as mentioned, but that came on 24 attempts for 58% from the charity stripe. Not a shock as the Cats are the worst FT shooting team in the entire nation hitting only 64% for the season. That’s going to clip them at some point in a tight game. St Joes should have a big advantage from the stripe as they hit 74% for the season and they do a good job defensive of not sending teams to the FT line just 16 times per game (29th best in the nation). The Hawks had a bye into this round and with Davidson going into OT 24 hours ago, St Joes should be the fresher team. These 2 split this season with each team winning on the opponents home court and both games were decided by 6 points or less. However, St Joseph’s loss vs Davidson was way back on January 3rd and they have since gone 13-3 while Davidson has 7 losses since that win. Davidson loves to shoot 3’s and they are facing a very good defense at defending the arc (top 65 nationally allowing opponents 32% from deep). In their 2 meetings the Hawks did a very nice job limiting Davidson to 16 of 52 from deep (30.7%). St Joes defense has been fantastic as a whole especially since they hit A10 play. Since January 1st the Hawks rank 21st nationally in defensive efficiency, 12th in eFG% allowed, 14th in 2 point FG% allowed, and 25th in 3 point FG% allowed. During that span (since Jan 1) St Joes ranks 62nd nationally behind only St Louis and VCU in the A10. Davidson barely sits inside the top 100 during that stretch and they are 6th in the A10 since the start of 2026. This number is a bit light according to our power ratings so we’ll lay it with St Josephs.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - It’s betting suicide to routinely lay double-digits in the NBA and expect long term winning results but sometimes you have to make an exception to the rules, which is what we’ll do tonight. Cleveland is coming off a loss two nights ago in Orlando after winning 3 of four games prior. They are battling for a better seed in the East, currently sitting 4th but only trail 2nd place Boston by 3 games. Dallas is in a very bad scheduling situation here having played 6 straight road games, including a game last night, a win in Memphis. This is their 3rd game in four days and 6th in nine days. We like to fade teams that were on an extended road trip and home for the first time as they tend to have a tough time in this scheduling situation. In the Mavs last 8 losses, 7 have come by double-digits. In the Mavs last 15 games they have the 4th highest points differential of minus -10.3ppg. Cleveland has the 8th best average margin of victory in that same 15 games stretch at +7.1ppg. Dallas was recently +16.5 points at home against the Thunder and lost by 13-points. That was somewhat misleading as the Thunder had a horrible shooting night from beyond the arc at 21% or that final could have been much greater. Given the scheduling advantage for the Cavaliers we will lay the big number with them tonight.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -3.5 over Iowa State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ISU has had a nice 2 game run in the Big 12 tournament but it ends here. They destroyed Arizona State in their first match up and they got their revenge vs a short handed Texas Tech team yesterday after losing @ home vs the Red Raiders at the end of February. Tech is without their first team All American JT Toppin who was injured in late February and is out for the season and his loss caught up with them as they’ve now lost 3 in a row. This will be the Cyclones 3rd game in 3 days while Arizona had their first game yesterday so fatigue could be a factor here. The Wildcats beat UCF by 22 points yesterday and missed 14 FT’s (just 55% from the charity stripe) so it could have been much worse. They played 8 guys double digit minutes so they should be fresh. These 2 met once this year and Zona dominated on their way to a 16 point win in a game ISU had one lead of 1-point the entire game. The Cats actually led by 21 with under 3:00 minutes left in the game before the Clones made a bit more respectable late. Zona is simply the better team, by a decent margin and their Big 12 stats proved that. They led the conference in PPG margin at +14, led the league in both offensive and defensive FG%, were #1 in offensive and defensive rebounding, and they were the best 3 point defense and 2 point defense in the Big 12. When these 2 stepped up in competition, there was no comparison. Arizona was 14-2 in Quad 1 games while Iowa State was 7-6 in Quad 1 games. This number is short per our power ratings and we’ll lay it.

#833 ASA PLAY ON Seton Hall +7.5 over St Johns, Friday at 5:30 PM ET - Seton Hall matched up very well with the Johnnies this year losing both games but each were tight margins of 7 & 5 points. St John’s largest lead in either game was just 11 points which makes these points very valuable. They just faced off in the regular season finale with St John’s winning by 7 @ the Hall. In that game STJ shot 50% to just 41% for the Pirates and Seton Hall was 1 of 11 from 3 and still only lost by 7. In the 2 games combined, the Pirates shot just 39% from the field and the Red Storm 43% but weren’t able to pull away in either game. We really like what Seton Hall did on the offensive glass in those 2 games gathering 39% and 46% of their misses in the 2 games and they had a plus rebounding margin in both. The Pirates also did a great job of slowing down the pace vs a STJ team that wants to play fast. The possessions in those 2 games were 63 and 64 which makes it very tough for the favorite to pull away with limited opportunities. Defensively Seton Hall is among the best in the country ranking top 15 in efficiency, defensive turnover percentage and defensive 2 point FG% allowed. That’s not a great match up for the Johnnies who would rather operate inside and not take a ton of 3’s because they aren’t a great outside shooting team (200th nationally in 3 point FG%). In their 2 games vs this defense, STJ shot just 48% from inside the arc (they average 51%). The Pirates have played very well vs the 2 top teams in the Big East losing by 5 & 7 vs St John’s as we mentioned and by 4 & 5 points vs UConn. We’re in for another tight game in our opinion and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 pm ET - The Nuggets were in a favorable scheduling situation last night hosting the Rockets but now find themselves playing without rest and on the road against what might be the best team in the NBA. San Antonio is clearly ahead of schedule with their young roster and are more than capable of winning it all this season. They are red hot right now with a 16-1 SU record in their last 17 games and have an impressive stretch of current wins over the Pistons, Clippers, Rockets and Celtics. In this 17-game run they have an average margin of victory of +14ppg – best in the NBA. A closer look at Denver and the records show they are 6-9 SU in their last 15 games with an average point differential of +1.6ppg. Denver is 7-6 their last thirteen away from home but none of those 7 wins came against a team with an above .500 record. They lost two recent games to OKC which would be a similar opponent to the Spurs, but they weren’t coming off games the night before. Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA with an offensive efficiency rating of 1.215-points per possession with the best eFG% in the league at 57.1%. San Antonio though ranks 6th in oEFF and eFG% so they have an offense nearly equivalent to the Nuggets. The difference between the two teams is defensive as the Spurs rank 3rd in dEFF allowing 1.112ppp, the Nuggets rank 23rd.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -14.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 pm ET - The Hawks are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games and the 5th best Net rating over that span of games with an average +/- of +11.1ppg. Atlanta is on an 8-game winning streak which coincidentally started with an 11-point win over this same Nets team. Brooklyn has just 17 wins on the season and is fighting for a higher pick in this year’s draft. Brooklyn is 2-11 SU their last 13 games with an average loss margin of -15.1ppg. They have the worst Net rating in the NBA over that same period at minus -15.4. The Hawks have been winning by margin in this 8 game SU/ATS streak with every win by 9 or more points. Michael Porter Jr, the Nets leading scorer was injured last game and will be out tonight which is why this spread is 4 points more than the previous meeting. If it’s not broken – don’t fix it. The Hawks are surging, the Nets are tanking. Lay it!

#725 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +17 over Duke, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Too many points for an FSU team that is playing very well vs an undermanned and possibly uninterested Duke team. The Blue Devils already have a #1 seed, and most likely the #1 seed, already locked up for the NCAA tourney. Head coach John Scheyer has already made it clear their end goal is to win this NCAA Championship and being healthy will be important. "Our goal is to be in a position to win this thing to win the big one," Scheyer stated referring to the NCAA tourney while mentioning the ACC tournament is a step toward that but not necessarily a goal to win it. They are banged up right now with starting PG Foster out (best 3 point shooter) and starting C Ngongba out (11 PPG and leading rebounder at 6 RPG). FSU is a very dangerous team right now. After starting the ACC with an 0-5 record, they have ripped off 11 wins in their last 14 games. They faced Duke when they were at full strength in early January when the Noles simply were not playing well and lost by just 4 points. In that game, FSU led for more than half the game and Duke made 12 more FT’s and still only won by 4. The Noles are playing light years better right now than they were at that point. They beat Cal yesterday by 6 but it was much worse than that as FSU led by 22 points with 8:00 minutes left in the game. Since February 1st, the Seminoles rank as the 28th best team in the country (per Torvik analytics) and they are top 20 in offensive efficiency during that stretch. They’ve also done well away from home winning 6 road games during this 14 game hot stretch. Duke doesn’t care if they win this game by more than 17 points and we think FSU stays within shouting distance for most if not all of this game.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Kent State -4 over Ohio, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Kent dominated the only meeting this year beating Ohio by 15 points despite shooting only 38% from the field and 30% from deep. They dominated the boards in that game (+20) including hauling down over 45% of their misses on the offensive glass. They also got to the FT line 18 more times and we don’t see either of those situations changing here. Kent is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MAC and Ohio is 11th on the defensive boards and 300th nationally. Kent also gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference while the Bobcats rank 311th in the nation in FT attempts allowed per game. The Golden Flashes end the MAC season with a 14-4 record with 3 of their 4 losses coming vs Miami OH and Akron, the 2 best teams in the league and both top 90 teams nationally per KenPom. Ohio finished 9-9 in the MAC and almost all of their wins came vs lower tier conference teams. They have 2 wins all season vs teams ranked inside the top 200 and 4 of their 5 wins since January 10th came vs teams that have since fired their coach (Ball St, Northern Illinois (twice), and Western Michigan). The Bobcats should not only be at a big disadvantage on the glass, they should also fall well short of Kent from beyond the arc. Kent is a top 100 three point shooting team while Ohio ranks 338th in offensive 3 point FG% and 344th in defensive 3 point FG%. The Flashes have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play and they are the better FT shooting team. If they can shoot even average here, they win handily.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +1.5 over Louisville, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 just met on Saturday and we were on Miami as you already know. The Canes were a 1.5 point favorite and lost by 3. The Cards shot out of their minds hitting 60% from the field and 50% from deep and still only won by 3 points. While Louisville is a solid shooting team, we don’t look for anywhere near a repeat performance. They faced a short handed SMU team yesterday and barely hung on for a 4 point win. The Cardinals shot just 40% in that game and 26% from deep. Why couldn’t we get that performance from them last Saturday? SMU played without one of their best players BJ Miller and still led for a majority of yesterday’s game. Louisville was also without their best player Mikel Brown and he will not play in this game. They are 16-4 with Brown in the line up and just 7-4 when he is not available. We expect the Canes to control the boards as they did in the first meeting (they are #1 in the ACC in defensive rebounding and #2 in offensive rebounding) and if Louisville doesn’t shoot a crazy high percentage again, we like Miami to win this game. Let’s also keep in mind that the Canes are very good offensively as well ranking in the top 10 nationally in FG% and they are also in the top 35 nationally in defensive efficiency. Expect them to be much better on the defensive end after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. Let’s take Miami to get some quick revenge here.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 10pm ET - We will lay the short number with the home team here with Houston in a tough scheduling situation. The Rockets played last night making this the 2nd of a back to back. They are also playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th game in seven days – and – playing at altitude. Denver is also coming off two straight losses and will be highly motivated to end this 2 game skid. Denver is 18-7 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of plus 6.4ppg. The Nuggets have Aaron Gordon back in the lineup and are as healthy as they’ve been all season with all 5 starters back in the mix. Denver has been solid when playing with a rest advantage with a 10-6 SU record but an average margin of victory in those games of +7.9ppg. Denver has a slightly better record in conference play than the Rockets with a +6.7ppg differential compared to Houston’s +3.5ppg. Denver is 6th in the West as of today but trails the 3rd place Rockets by just a game and a half which makes tonight’s home game massive. We will lay it with Denver who wins late when the Rockets run out of gas.

#682 ASA PLAY ON UNLV -3.5 over Wyoming, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - While this is the Mountain West tourney, it’s being played on UNLV’s home court, the Thomas & Mack Center. We like the way the Rebels played down the stretch winning 7 of their final 10 games and 2 of their 3 losses during that stretch came by 5 points or less. They topped 3 of the top 5 teams in the MWC during that run (Utah St, Boise St, and Grand Canyon) and lost by 3 @ San Diego State (another top 5 game) by 3 points to end the regular season. For the season, Bart Torvik analytics has UNLV ranked 112th on the season but since February 1st they are a top 80 team. Offensively they rank in the top 65 in the country in FG% and in MWC play they were the best 3 point shooting team hitting 39%. Wyoming was solid at home this season but on the road they were just 3-9. Their shooting numbers away from home were not good. They made only 42% of their shots and 29% of their triples on the road this season while averaging only 68 PPG. At home the Cowboys shooting numbers are 47%, 36%, and 81 PPG respectively so you can see the drop off when they take the road. These 2 met once this season way back on January 6th and the Rebels were embarrassed @ Wyoming losing by 32 points so you can bet that is in the back of their minds. When looking at conference games only, UNLV had the better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. When stepping up in competition, it was clear that UNLV was the better team with a 4-4 record vs Quad 1 teams and 4-4 vs Quad 2. Wyoming was 1-7 and 1-5 vs Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. Let’s lay this small number with UNLV at home on Wednesday afternoon.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +11.5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 12:30 PM ET - These 2 just played on Saturday @ Iowa State and we were on the Cyclones and picked up a cover with ISU winning by 21 points. It was a perfect spot to take the Clones coming off back to back losses and playing in their home finale. They were very motivated to get a big win and they did. Now playing the same team a few days later might be tough for ISU to fully focus on this game. It wasn’t as easy as the final scored looked in that win on Saturday. ASU actually led at halftime but the Cyclones came out in the 2nd half with big time energy and went on a 24-0 run to pull away. ASU shot well at 47% but they did have 23 turnovers and because of that Iowa State had 23 more shot attempts. If they can clean that up in this game, they should be able to keep it close vs an possibly uninterested ISU team. There are strong rumors that ASU’s head coach Bobby Hurley’s contract will not be renewed and his team has continued to play very hard for him. He met with them prior to yesterday’s win over Baylor and didn’t dismiss the rumor so his team knows what’s up and they are playing for him. They played well yesterday topping Baylor by 4 points here but it wasn’t that close as the Devils dominated the game with the Bears largest lead being just 2 points and ASU led for 94% of the game. They have some momentum entering Wednesday and they get a shot at the team that just embarrassed them in the 2nd half on Saturday. The Cyclones have been great at home but away from home, not so much. They were just 4-5 on the road in Big 12 play and 3 of their 4 wins came vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Utah, KSU, and Okla St). The Clones average 10 PPG less on the road compared to at home and lose 5% on their FG and 3 point FG%. This could be a dangerous game for ISU and we like the Sun Devils to keep this to single digits.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 at LA Lakers, 11 pm ET - We hope Lebron is in the line up tonight for the Lakers as they are simply a worse team with him on the floor. The Lakers are 4-12 SU against teams with a .600 or better winning percentage this season – 0-4 when Lebron plays. The Lakers are coming off of a big upset win over the Knicks on Monday, the Timberwolves are off a home blowout loss to the Magic on Sunday. Prior to their loss, the Wolves had won 5 straight and 8 of their last nine. In that same stretch of 9 games, they have 3 road wins at Portland, against the Clippers on this same floor and in Denver. Minnesota is 18-12 SU away from home this season which is nearly as good as the Lakers home record of 20-12. The Lakers are 5-1 their last six games but three of those wins were against the Kings, Pelicans and Pacers – three of the worst teams in the league. In their last nine games they have two wins over teams with an above .500 record, the Warriors and the Knicks. They also have 3 losses against the Celtics, Magic and Suns in that stretch. Minnesota is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 48.3%, the Lakers D ranks 26th in opponents FG% allowing 48.4%. The Wolves are the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Lakers rank 16th in 3PT% allowed. Granted, the Lakers are the best shooting team in the league but the Wolves rank 9th in opponents FG% shooting. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to 2nd chance points – the Wolves are 6th in 2nd chance points allowed. One thing is for certain in this matchup, Anthony Edwards will be ‘up’ for this Los Angeles game and Minnesota’s advantage on the offensive and defensive boards will be the difference in this one.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech -2.5 over Wake Forest, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season with Va Tech winning at home by 19 points and WF winning at home by 3 points (VT played without starter Tobi Lawal 12 PPG in 3 point loss @ Wake). Offensively these teams are very close in efficiency, FG%, and PPG. The Hokies have a solid edge from beyond the arc ranking 6th in the ACC in 3 point FG% and 3rd in defensive 3 point FG% while Wake ranks 10th in both. Defensively VT has a solid advantage ranking 7th in the ACC in defensive efficiency, 6th in eFG% allowed and 3rd in 3 point FG% allowed. The Deacs rank 15th, 15th, and 10th respectively in those key stats. This game is being played on a neutral court in Charlotte so how do these teams fare away from home? Tech’s road splits aren’t far off from their home splits while Wake’s drop off fairly significantly. The Hokies average 76 PPG on the road which is 4 less than at home while Wake Forest averages 73 PPG on the road which is 10 points fewer than their home numbers. VT has the exact same FG% numbers at home and on the road shooting 45% and 35% from deep. The Demon Deacons road numbers are 41% (down from 47% at home) and 33% (down from 35% at home). Spread wise, Va Tech was a perfect 10-0 ATS in their road games this season while Wake was 3-6 ATS. The Hokies are definitely more comfortable playing away from home compared to the Deacs. This is a huge game for Va Tech who sits in the “First 4 out” of the NCAA tourney per ESPN bracketology. Wake would have to win the ACC tourney to get in. Small number here and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 10 pm ET - We like the Clippers in this one for several reasons including the fact the Knicks are coming off a game yesterday versus the Lakers while the Clippers are rested. New York lost a sloppy game yesterday with 18 turnovers while shooting just 2% from deep. Brunson played 42 minutes, Anthony Towns logged 34 minutes so both should be fatigued here. This is also the Knicks 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven days. The Clippers have won 4 of their last five games and are one game under .500 and sit just 1 game behind the Warriors for 8th in the Western Conference. LA is near healthy now with Darius Garland playing over 26 minutes on Saturday in the Clippers win over Memphis. LA has gotten much deeper with their trade line additions of Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and now Garland who had missed time with an injury. These same two teams met in New York in January with the Knicks favored by -5-points on their home court and are now laying points on the road? That doesn’t add up and we have the Clippers favored by 1.5 points in this game. In three recent home games against similar teams to the Knicks (Magic, Wolves and Nuggets) the Clippers were 1 & 2 with three close games and all three were without Garland in the lineup. The Knicks defense has slipped in recent games to 20th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 20th in that same 5-game stretch. If we use that same 5-game span to compare the offenses we find the Clippers have an oEFF of 1.149-points per possession compared to the Knicks 1.142PPP. It all adds up to a big Clippers win at home as they get revenge for the road loss back in January.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Troy -6.5 over Georgia Southern, Monday at 7 PM ET - We were on Troy yesterday vs Southern Miss and picked up a win. Now we’re getting them at a similar number, vs a similarly rated team, but in an even better situation. As we mentioned yesterday, the Sun Belt has a unique tournament format which heavily favors the higher seeds. This is the Sun Belt final and while Troy is playing their 2nd game after winning the regular season and getting a bye into the semi-finals, Georgia Southern is playing their 6th game in 6 days. The Panthers have had a great run in this tourney after finishing 10th in the regular season. They’ve won 5 games in 5 days, the last 4 coming as underdogs. 3 of the 5 games went to the wire with Georgia Southern winning by 4 points or less. The Panther came into the tourney ranking outside the top 300 in FG% but have made at least 52% of their shots in 3 of their 5 games during this run. They’ve been shooting way above their pay grade so to speak. Yesterday in their 4 point win over Marshall they finally came back to earth making just 40% of their shots (tired legs starting to kick in?). The difference was the Panthers made 9 more FT’s and Marshall played without one of their top players, Noah Otshudi (15 PPG). He was out with an illness that has been running through some of the team giving Georgia Southern a huge edge yesterday. That won’t happen today facing the best team in the Sun Belt. Troy handled their business yesterday, as we expected, beating Southern Miss by 8. The game wasn’t that close as the Trojans led by 19 in the 2nd half and led for over 90% of the game. That was USM 4th game in 4 days not they get GS playing their 6th game in 6 days. In their lone meeting this year, Troy was favored by 4.5 @ Georgia Southern and won by 5. Now laying 6.5 on a neutral isn’t out of line and we’re getting a much better situational spot for the Trojans. In conference play Troy was better pretty much across the board in most of the key stats and we’ll lay it with them in the Sun Belt Final.

#788 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -6.5 over Iowa, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Tough spot for Iowa who just gave an “all in” effort at home vs Michigan on Thursday before bowing out 71-68. Michigan controlled the boards as expected (+13) but turned the ball over on a ridiculous 28% of their possessions and still were able to win. That may not work quite as well on Sunday as Michigan is one of the worst in the Big 10 at taking care of the ball and Nebraska ranks in the top 30 nationally in that category. On top of that, Iowa has been really poor on the road as of late losing 3 straight with 2 of those coming @ Maryland and @ Pann State, the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference per KenPom. Those 2 teams have a combined 7 wins in Big 10 play. They are catching Nebraska at a bad time. First it’s a revenge game for the Huskers who lost 57-52 @ Iowa a few weeks ago AND they are off their by far worst loss of the season @ UCLA losing by 20 on Tuesday (we were on UCLA). To put that loss in perspective, Nebraska is now 25-5 on the season and their other 4 losses combined came by 19 points. That game was also on Tuesday giving the Huskers 2 extra days compared to Iowa who played Thursday night. In the first meeting both teams shot poorly, however Nebraska was really bad from beyond the arc hitting only 5 of 24 (20%) and they also made 6 fewer FT’s. Iowa wasn’t much better from deep (27%) and they have not shot better than 32% from beyond the arc in any of their last 8 games. Now facing the #1 three point defense in the conference and #1 in defensive efficiency, we look for the Hawks to really have problems on offense. Nebraska has 2 home losses on the season vs conference elite teams Purdue (lost in OT) and Illinois. All but 1 of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. Look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder coming off a terrible loss and playing their home finale.

#791 ASA PLAY ON Campbell +7.5 over UNC Wilmington, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We like the value here with Campbell +7.5 points. These 2 met twice this season with UNCW favored by 6.5 at home and 3.5 on the road and now we’re getting +7 on a neutral. While Campbell lost both games they gave the Seahawks all they could handle losing by 3 & 5 points. The largest lead UNCW had in either game was 7 points and they led for a total of 48% of the minutes in BOTH games combined. Campbell actually led for 67% of the first game and 65% of the 2nd. The Camels should have plenty of confidence knowing they easily could have won both games against the team that won the CAA regular season crown. We like the fact that Campbell played at this venue yesterday (Wilmington had a bye) and played well hitting 60% of their shots and 50% from deep, led for 77% of the game in a win over Stony Brook. That gives them a leg up here in our opinion after having solid success in this arena. Campbell is a dangerous dog because they can score points (78 PPG – 2nd in the CAA), the protect the ball (3rd in offensive turnover percentage in conference play), they get to the FT line a lot and when they do they make 75% which gives them a big edge over UNCW who makes only 67% of their freebies. The Seahawks won the CAA but they aren’t a great shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in FG% and in the bottom half of the CAA in that stat. They are very solid defensively but if they have an off shooting night, they can be had. Campbell has very solid guard play with DJ Smith and Jeremiah Johnson who combined for 65 points in their 2 games vs UNCW. We like the Camels to hang around again and cover this inflated number.

#720 ASA PLAY ON Colorado +14.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET - Huge letdown spot for Arizona as they are off huge back to back wins over top tier teams Kansas & Arizona. The Cats have already clinched the conference title and the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament. While Zona has pasted most opponents at home, on the road they haven’t been quite as dominant. They only team they’ve topped by more than 13 points on the Big 12 road was @ Utah who is by far the worst team in the conference (120th per KenPom). Their average scoring margin per game at home is +18 PPG and on the road it’s just +8 PPG. Colorado is 13-4 at home with some tight losses vs the Big 12’s best including a 2 point loss to Texas Tech and 6 point loss to Kansas. The Buffs are always tough at home in altitude and even when they lose, it’s not often by margin. In fact, they have lost at home by more than 16 points just once in their last 51 games. CU has shot it well at home, especially from deep hitting almost 38%, and they are averaging 85 PPG here. We think it’ll be tough for the Wildcats to win this one going away in Colorado’s home finale. Arizona has struggled at this venue losing 6 of the last 7 and they are just 3-12 lifetime in Boulder. They just want to get out of here with a win and no injuries. No need for a blowout. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - With 35+ years of experience handicapping the NBA we know a ‘fishy’ line when we see one, which is the case today with the Bucks. You mean to tell me the Bucks, who have lost 4 straight - all blowouts - and haven’t been a double-digit chalk since Dec 31st – are favored by 10-points here? Doesn’t make sense so we’ll do what the Books don’t want us to do and bet Milwaukee. Utah is coming off an upset win in Washington and will look to get back on the losing track in an effort to improve their draft status. Prior to the win the other night the Jazz had lost 7 straight, 4 of which were by 10+ points. Milwaukee should be in tank mode to improve their draft position but with 21 games to play (9th easiest schedule) they still have a shot at the play in and Giannis still wants to win this season. Utah has the 7th largest road scoring differential in the NBA at minus -9.6ppg. Despite the disappointing season the Bucks home differential is -3.6ppg and they stand 13-17 ATS on their own court. The Jazz are a beat-up team right now with 4 of their five regular starters out. The Bucks beat this team by 15 and 23 a year ago when the Jazz were healthy. Lay the ugly number with Milwaukee and watch Giannis/Bucks turn back the clock and win in a blowout.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago -5.5 over Drake, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Drake has pulled upsets in each of the first 2 games in the MVC tourney and now they are playing their 3rd game in 3 days and they’ve basically played 7 guys. UIC had their first game of the conference tournament on Friday and crushed a solid Murray State team 92-79 (we were on UIC). The Flames should be the fresher and they are already the deeper team. Illinois Chicago won both meetings this season by 7 and 10 points and neither were that close. The largest lead Drake had in either match up was 4 points and the Flames led by 15 in both games. UIC led for 76% of one game and 95% of the other while the Bulldogs led for 11% of the time in the 2 games combined. In a weird twist, both teams were exactly 47 of 113 from the field in those games. So the shooting stats were identical yet UIC still won both games handily. Drake shot out of their minds in yesterday’s upset win over Belmont as a 12.5 point dog. The Dogs hit 57% of their shots, over 40% of their triples, and made 27 of their 31 FT’s. That was an outlier. While this team shoots a lot of 3’s, they really aren’t good at it ranking 10th in the MVC in 3 point FG%. Now they face a really good Illinois Chicago defense that ranks 3rd in the MVC in efficiency and #1 at creating turnovers. They held a very good Murray State offense that ranks 2nd in the conference in efficiency to just 37% shooting and 1.00 PPP. The Flames should absolutely be able to slow down a Drake team that shot way above their season averages yesterday and may be getting a bit tired. Let’s not forget, despite their 2 wins in the last 2 days, the Bulldogs were just 6-14 in conference play while UIC was 12-8. The run ends today and Illinois Chicago moves on with a convincing win.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic +6.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:10 pm ET - The Wolves are on a solid run right now with a 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games and have won 5 straight. Orlando is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are 4-2 in their last six games. What’s interesting is, despite the records of the two teams in that stretch of games, the Magic actually have a better net rating of +5.3 compared to the Wolves +4.2 rating. Orlando has won 3 of their last four on the road and the lone loss in that stretch was in OT at Phoenix. Minnesota hasn’t been a trustworthy home favorite this season with a 12-17 spread record and an average margin of victory of +5.8ppg. The Wolves have a very tough West coast road trip looming with games at the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Thunder so they may get caught looking ahead to those games and take the Magic for granted here. The efficiency differentials for these two teams in their last five games is much closer than today’s spread of -6.5 would suggest and with the markets heavy on the Wolves the line is trending in the opposite direction. We like Orlando here.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -15 over Arizona State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - ISU will be highly motivated for their home finale coming off back to back losses vs Texas Tech and Arizona, 2 high level Final 4 type opponents. Their Zona loss was on the road but their loss vs the Red Raiders was at home making, their first home loss of the year, giving them a little extra motivation here. We’re not so sure ASU will be ready to play at the same desperate type level in their meaningless road finale after upsetting Kansas at home on Tuesday night. The Sun Devils have been feisty at home but on the road they are just 2-8 SU on the season with their wins coming @ Hawaii way back in November and @ Utah who is by far the worst team in the Big 12. They’ve played 3 road games vs top 6 Big 12 teams (per KenPom ratings) and they lost 2 of those by 28+ points vs BYU and Houston who rank 25th and 6th respectively (ISU is ranked 8th in the country per KenPom). This is also the Devils first ever trip to Hilton Coliseum which is one of the toughest places to play in America and should be crazy in their home finale. The Cyclones are an impressive 48-3 at home the last 2+ seasons with a whopping 40 of those wins coming by double digits. ISU is top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency and they are a great 3 point shooting team hitting nearly 39% of their triples (11th nationally). They are facing an ASU defense that ranks 254th defending the arc allowing over 35% and on the road that pushes up to almost 39%. On the other end the Cyclones are a top 10 defense (efficiency) and they create turnovers at the 5th highest rate in the nation. They also are top 40 in offensive rebounding. Those 2 things should lead to multiple extra possessions for ISU as the Sun Devils rank 11th in the Big 12 in offensive turnover rate and they are the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference. This just smells like a potential blowout with ISU righting the ship at home heading into the conference tourney while ASU got their big win on Tuesday at home vs KU. Let’s lay it.

#830 ASA PLAY ON Dayton -1.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - Dayton went through a tough 4 game losing streak at the end of January which dropped them to 5-4 in A10 play after starting a perfect 5-0. Since February 1st, the Flyers have gotten back into their groove winning 7 of their last 8 games to move to 12-5 in conference play in 3rd place behind St Louis and this VCU team. Their only loss during this stretch was an embarrassing one @ VCU as the Flyers were crushed 99-73. Dayton was without their 2nd leading scorer DeShayne Montgomery (14 PPG) in that loss but he is back and healthy. The Flyers have been waiting for this rematch and we look for Dayton to go out with a win in their home (and regular season) finale. This situation looks very similar to Dayton’s games this season vs 1st place St Louis. They lost at STL by 31 points and then got their shot at the Billikens at home and beat them by 15 just over a week ago. That was one of St Louis 3 setbacks this year (27-3 record) and by far their largest margin of defeat. VCU lost twice to St Louis this year and the Rams are locked into the #2 seed for the upcoming A10 tourney while Dayton is battling St Joes for the 3 seed. Dayton has 1 home loss in conference play and that was in OT. The Flyers have one of the top home court advantages in college basketball having won 67 of their last 73 games here. VCU is 6-2 on the road in A10 play, however they’ve only faced 3 of the top 6 teams (rated per KenPom) away from home this season and they are 1-2 in those games with losses @ St Louis and @ George Mason and a tight win @ Davidson. In conference play Dayton has the better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, they get to the FT line more than any other team in the conference and shoot 78%, and they are at top 10 defense at creating turnovers. If they can be respectable on the boards vs a solid rebounding VCU team, Dayton should win this game with some cushion.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 9 pm ET - We were very close to laying -10.5 points with the Suns the other night in Sacramento but didn’t, tonight we’ll lay that same number at home with Phoenix over Chicago. The Bulls and Kings are playing similar right now as they both are tanking for a better draft position. Chicago is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games with the largest average loss margin over that course of games of minus -13.5 ppg. The Bulls have a net rating of -13.3 over that same stretch, only the Nets have been worse. Phoenix is coming off an 11-point win in Sacramento a few nights ago and have now won 2 straight. Devon Booker is back on the floor and his 24.6 ppg which had been missing from the Suns lineup in recent weeks. Phoenix is 20-12 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +3.2 ppg. Chicago has struggled away from home with a 9-19 SU record and an average MOV of minus -6.1ppg. Given the circumstances with the Suns fighting for a better playoff position and the Bulls looking to move up in the draft, we will lay the points with Phoenix.

#805 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 6 PM ET - JMU topped Louisiana 87-72 in the first round of the Sun Belt tourney in Pensacola, Florida while USM had a bye. We think that gives James Madison a solid advantage having played a game at this venue just 24 hours ago. As we move through the tourney, fatigue will be a factor for those that have had to play more games, however in this situation, that shouldn’t be an issue for the Dukes. On top of that, they spread their minutes out nicely yesterday with 9 players playing 10+ minutes. These 2 met on January 31st @ Southern Miss with the Golden Eagles coming out with a 72-65 win. However, JMU played that game without leading scorer McBride (16 PPG) who is also one of their best rebounders and shoots over 40% from deep. He’s back here and coming off a 20 point, 8 rebound performance in yesterday’s win vs Louisiana. These 2 both finished with 9-9 records in the Sun Belt but JMU had the better stats almost across the board and played the more difficult schedule. In conference play, the Dukes had the better PPG margin, better FG% both offensively and defensively, better 3 point FG% both offensively and defensively, better assist to turnover ratio, and a better rebound margin. They should have a decided edge from beyond the arc where they are top 100 in offensive and defensive 3 point FG% while USM is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (353rd) and they haven’t been good defending the arc (270th nationally & 10th in the Sun Belt). This number is short in our opinion and we like James Madison to pick up their 2nd win in 2 days.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:30pm ET - These two teams had fantastic February’s with the Celtics going 9-2 SU, the Hornets went 8-3. Boston had the 3rd best Net rating in the league at +12.3, the Hornets ranked 6th at +8.9. But Charlotte’s February isn’t as impressive when you look at their schedule. They’ve currently won 5 straight games, none against a team with a winning record. In the month of February, they have exactly 1 win over a team that currently has an above .500 record. Boston meanwhile is beating quality teams in this current stretch and have now vaulted to the odds-on favorites to win the East. In the month of February, the C’s have beaten 6 teams currently in the playoff hunt. Boston is 6-1 SU at home in their last seven games and all but one of those wins came by double-digits. The Celtics are winning at home by an average of +7.8ppg, Charlotte is a respectable 17-15 SU away from home but winning in Boston is a big ask. The Celtics have won 6 straight against Charlotte and 9 of the last ten meetings. Boston is clearly the better team with an efficiency differential of +8.0 (2nd in the NBA) compared to the Hornets +3.1 eDIFF which ranks 10th. Charlotte won’t sneak up on the Celtics here, lay the points with Boston.

#703 ASA PLAY ON UAB -1 over Charlotte, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - With UAB sitting as a 1 point favorite (opening number on Tuesday night) home court advantage for Charlotte is factored in as we have the Blazers favored by around 5 points on a neutral court. Well you can throw out home court advantage when dealing with UAB which gives us some solid value here. Why? Because the Blazers are a perfect 8-0 in AAC road games and they are 1-7 at home in conference games. A very rare twist where a team is simply better on the road than they are at home and by a fairly wide margin. They have road wins @ South Florida and @ Tulsa, the 2 highest rated teams in the AAC (both top 56 nationally). Charlotte already has 3 home losses in conference play and most of their wins at home have come vs lower tier AAC teams. The one impressive win they have at home was in early January vs Wichita State and that game went to double OT. These 2 are tied with a 9-7 league record but Charlotte has played the 12th strength of schedule in the AAC (out of 13 teams) and UAB has played the 2nd most difficult slate. Despite the same record, the Blazers are the much better team ranked nearly 60 spots higher than Charlotte. One good comparison is how these teams have done vs higher level competition. UAB is 3-3 on the season vs Quad 1 and 2 teams (roughly top 135 teams) while Charlotte is 0-8 vs those teams. If we push it out to include Quad 3 teams, UAB is 9-9 and Charlotte is 4-12. Most of the 49ers wins have come vs poor teams. The Niners might also be short handed here as 2nd leading scorer, Dezayne Mingo (12 PPP & 38% three point shooter) injured his ankle 2 games ago and has not returned. We like UAB to get another road win tonight.

#708 ASA PLAY ON SMU -1 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Huge home finale for SMU who sits right near the bubble of the NCAA tourney with a 19-10 record. The bracket matrix currently has the Mustangs as a consensus 11 seed but a loss here and then @ FSU on Saturday could drop them completely out. They are 15-2 at home this season and we’re catching them in a good spot coming off 2 losses on their recent swing to the West Coast @ Cal and @ Stanford. That ups the importance of this home tilt. The Canes come into this game having won 6 of their last 7 games, however 5 of those 6 wins have come vs teams that are currently .500 or worse in ACC play. That typifies Miami’s season as they’ve played the easiest overall schedule in the conference and the easiest schedule in league play. They have a very solid 23-6 record and unlike SMU, are safely in the Big Dance, however they are just 2-4 vs teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 40 (SMU is currently 39th). Miami does have 7 road wins but 6 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 70 and all of the ACC road wins have come vs teams in the lower tier of the conference except NC State. That was a 1 point win a game the Canes led for only 25% of the time. SMU has the better offensive efficiency, better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, better FT%, and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. They should have a solid edge from beyond the arc as the Miami defense ranks 15th in the ACC defending the 3 and on offense the Canes are 16th in 3 point FG% (SMU is 1st at 41%). The Hurricanes have a big game on deck hosting Louisville and this is a much more important game for the host. Let’s take SMU minus this small number.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -12.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30pm ET - The 15 win Nets have a ton to ‘not’ play for as they tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, currently sitting 8th but only 1.5 games behind the Sixers for the 6th spot. Remember, the top 6 teams are safe from the play in games so it’s a big advantage to land 6 or better. Miami had won 3 straight and was looking good before a pair of ugly losses to the Bucks and 76ers – both on the road. They then beat the Rockets on Saturday 115-105 at home. In late February the Heat were favored by -12.5 points against a similar Grizzlies team and Miami won that game by 16-points. Brooklyn has lost 8 straight games and none of the four road losses were close as they lost in Boston by 37, in Atlanta by 11, at OKC by 19 and at Cleveland by 18. Brooklyn is the worst shooting team in the NBA at 44.6% and will have a difficult time scoring here against the 7th best FG% defense in the league. Miami isn’t a great shooting team this season ranking 19th in team FG% overall and 12th in 3PT% but they’ll face a Nets D that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and allow opponents to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts. This one will get ugly early and the Heat’s transition game will turn it into a blowout.

#606 ASA PLAY ON Georgia +2 over Alabama, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Crimson Tide. They are coming off a revenge, miracle win @ Tennessee on Saturday, now on the road again 72 hours later, and they host arch rival Auburn next. In their game on Saturday, Bama trailed by 14 in the 2nd half and came back and took their first lead of the entire game with 24 seconds left 71-69 which was also the final score. They continue to struggle on the defensive glass allowing the Vols to grab a ridiculous 54% of their misses and that could be a problem here vs UGA who is a top 50 offensive rebounding team. In their win, Tennessee shot terribly hitting only 38% for the game and just 22% from deep and still led for all but 24 seconds. Tide head coach Oats called it their best SEC win of the season and said the comeback win was “emotionally taxing” on his team. Tonight they face a Georgia team (20-9 record) is currently slated as a 9 seed in most bracket projections, but aren’t guaranteed to make the Dance depending what happens over the next week plus. A win here in their home finale locks the Dogs into the NCAA tourney. UGA should absolutely be the fresher team in this game playing their 2nd straight home game after rolling over South Carolina by 19 points on Saturday with 9 players playing double digit minutes. Bama’s leading scorer Philbin (21 PPG & 5 assists per game) is banged up and healthy. He sat out vs Mississippi State last week but came back and played on Saturday. Oats said Philbin is not 100% and they need to be careful with him down the stretch as he’s much more important come tourney time. They come into this game having won 8 straight but they’ve been a bit fortunate with half of those wins coming by 4 points or less or in OT. We think Bama’s run ends tonight and we’ll grab the points with Georgia.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Eastern Washington -3.5 over Idaho, Monday at 9 PM ET - Eastern Washington has been very good to us this month and we’re taking them again in their home finale (and season finale) tonight. The Eagles remain red hot winning 8 in a row and covering 9 straight. After starting the Big Sky season with a 3-6 record, they are now 11-6, in 2nd place, and have a shot to win the conference if Portland State slips up tonight. They’ve won 6 straight by double digits and have some revenge involved after losing @ Idaho way back in early January. That was a 3 point Idaho win and the Vandals shot better overall, better from 3, and made 4 more FT’s yet the game was up in the air in the final minute of play. Since February 1st, EWU is by far the best team in the Big Sky (per Torvik metrics) ranking 56th nationally during that stretch with the next best conference team sitting at 116th. That’s Northern Colorado who the Eagles just beat here by double digits last week (we were on EWU as a top play in that one). Eastern Washington is #1 in conference play in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, 3 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. That will be a problem for Idaho’s 3 point heavy offensive attack (24th nationally in percentage of shots taken from beyond the arc) as EWU’s defense has shut conference teams down from deep allowing them to make just 31%. In the first meeting, the Vandals hit 11 of 29 from 3 point land (38%) yet still only won by 3. We don’t see them being nearly that successful in this one. While EWU is playing for a possible conference title, the best Idaho can do with a win here is get to 9-9 in Big Sky play, but win or lose, they are locked into 7th place. A win could move them into a tie with Northern Colorado but they lost both games vs the Bears to NC would win the tie-breaker. We have this line power rated closer to 5.5 points so we’ll take the value as Eastern Washington just keeps rolling.

#850 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -3.5 over DePaul, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Golden Eagles are a dangerous team right now as they continue to improve after a poor start to the season. Their power rating on the season per Bart Torvik analytics is around 85th in the nation but during the month of February they are 50th and the 5th best in the Big East behind UConn, St Johns, Villanova, and Providence. They are coming off an impressive 16 point win @ Georgetown as a 2 point dog. That win was on Tuesday giving Marquette an extra day as DePaul was on the road Wednesday night @ Creighton. The Blue Demons came up with a huge come from behind win over the Blue Jays 72-71. It was a highly unlikely win as DePaul overcame an 11 point 2nd half deficit and never led by more than 2 points the entire game. They shot well above their season averages hitting 50% overall (they average 44% on the season) and 53% from deep (they average 33% for the season). Even shooting lights out, the Blue Demons led for only 5% of their game @ Creighton and pulled out a miracle win. It was just their 2nd Big East road win with 7 losses on the road in conference play. This will be their 3rd road game in their last 4 and 6th road game since January 28th (just 3 home games during that stretch). DePaul currently sits right around 100th in the nation per Torvik and while Marquette is surging, the Demons are not. Over the last month they rank 120th in the country and last in the Big East during that span along with Xavier. Marquette has won 4 of their last 6 home games with their only losses during that time coming by 6 points vs St John’s (#2 team in the BE) and by 3 points vs Villanova (#3 team in the Big East). Their last 2 home games were blowout wins over Creighton (by 24 points) and over Butler (by 15 points) who both rank well above this DePaul team that actually rates as the worst team in the Big East per KenPom and Torvik. In their first meeting @ DePaul, the Demons won by 5 in a game where Marquette made only 38% of their FT’s and led for more than 50% of the game. The Golden Eagles have dominated DePaul at home winning 8 of the last 9 and 30 of the last 35 here in Milwaukee. We like Marquette to cover this one rather easily.

#846 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - This is just a monumental home game for Indiana. They sit squarely on the NCAA bubble and with their last 2 games coming vs Minnesota and Ohio State, this is their final shot at a big time regular season win. It’s a very solid situational spot as well as the Hoosiers catch MSU off a huge road win over Purdue as a 7 point dog. It was a physical, down to the wire game (2 point win for MSU) in which neither team led by more than 8 points. Tough spot on the road again for Sparty coming off that win and facing a team they already smoked at home earlier this year (81-60 Spartan win in mid January). On the other hand, we’re getting Indiana coming off a home loss vs Northwestern as an 8 point favorite, in a game they dominated for nearly it’s entirety. IU led for 87% of the game and held a 13 point 2nd half lead. With less than 7:00 minutes remaining in the game, the Hoosiers had an 83% chance of winning based on probabilities. After a blown game like that, we expect them to bounce back at home and play very well on Sunday. Offensively, Indiana is the better shooting team, better from beyond the arc, they turn the ball over at a lower rate, and make 78% of their FT’s. Against other upper tier Big 10 teams at Assembly Hall, IU topped Purdue and Wisconsin, and lost a tight game vs Nebraska. If they can be at least respectable on the glass, Indiana should have a solid shot to win this game outright. It’s a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -2.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 pm ET - This is a big game today between two teams that have a strong dislike for each other. Both teams currently stand 37-23 SU on the season and are fighting for the 4th seed in the Western Conference which would mean home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. Denver has won all 3 meetings this season and we don’t see that trend changing here. The Nuggets are a tough loss a couple nights ago in OKC and look to rebound here. They have been exceptional off a loss this season with a 17-5 SU record and an average margin of victory in those games of +7.6ppg. That’s a reoccurring theme with the Nuggets who are 63-26 SU off a loss since 2023. Minnesota has won 5 of their last six games but they came against Portland twice, the Clippers without Leonard, Dallas and Atlanta and 3 of those wins were at home. Despite the 4-1 record in their last five games, the Nuggets have the better efficiency differential of 10.8 compared to the Wolves 3.2. These two teams have a lot of similarities statistically with the exception being 3PT defense. The Nuggets are the best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 39.3%, the Wolves rank 17th in 3PT% defense allowing 36%. Minnesota shoots it well themselves from Downtown, but the Nugs rank 6th in 3PT% defense. Normally the Wolves enjoy a rebounding advantage but not in this game as Denver’s rebound percentage on the season is better than Minnesota’s. Given the circumstances we like Denver with this short number of -2.5

#800 ASA PLAY ON Utah St -10.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting the best team in the Mountain West and one of the best teams in the country (25th per KenPom) at home and off back to back losses. Utah State lost @ Nevada last Saturday by 3 points (blew an 8 point lead with under 7:00 left in the game) and then lost @ San Diego State on Wednesday. That loss pulled the Aztecs into a tie with Utah State for 1st place in the MWC. The Aggies played poorly on both ends of the court in that loss and we expect a big bounce back effort at home on Saturday. USU shot just 40% overall (they average 51% on the season) and 30% from beyond the arc (they average 37% this year). Grand Canyon is off a revenge win and cover over UNLV on Wednesday (we were on GC) and now they take the road where they struggle offensively. The Antelopes rank just 8th in the MWC (out of 12 teams) in offensive efficiency and they are a bad 3 point shooting team (326th nationally at just under 30%). Away from home their FG% is just 44% and from beyond the arc they make just 28% facing a USU D that allows opponents just 38% overall at home and 67 PPG. GC is solid defensively, but we’re not sure they can keep up on offense in this one. The Aggies rank to 10 in the nation in FG% and they are #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and offensive rebounding. They are 12-1 at home this season and 9 of those wins have come by double digits. Not only does Utah St have motivation coming off 2 losses and playing to stay in 1st place, they lost @ Grand Canyon in January as a 5.5 point favorite. The below average shooting Antelopes hit 51% of their shots in that game while the top 10 offense USU made only 35%. Those numbers flop here and we get a double digit win from Utah State.

#762 ASA PLAY ON Cal State Fullerton +3.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We faded Hawaii on Thursday night @ UC Davis and picked up a loss as the Rainbows (-2) won by 4 points. In that game UH hit 51% of their shots overall and 45% from beyond the arc well above their season averages. Now they are on the 2nd leg of their trip to the mainland less than 48 hours after topping UCD. We mentioned in that analysis that Hawaii has had a brutal travel schedule since January 1st making 5 trips to California, all 2 game road trips. They’ve traveled 25,000 miles in the last 2 months alone. They’ve split the first 4 road trips going 1-1 in each and we think they’ll split again. While the Rainbows are playing less then 48 hours after their big road win @ UC Davis, CS Fullerton has had a full week off. The Titans have been playing very well winning 7 of their last 9 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ UC Irvine and @ UC Santa Barbara, 2 of the top 4 rated teams in the Big West. Fullerton is 6-2 at home in conference play but their 2 losses were in December and early January and they’ve won 5 in a row here. They play at a very fast pace (5th in the country) and create turnovers at a high rated (1st in the Big West). That’s a bad match up for this Hawaii team who ranks 323rd in offensive turnover percentage. On the other end the Titans offense turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the league so the turnover situation should heavily favor CSF. They are also the better 3 point shooting team and better FT shooting team in conference play. Prior to Thursday night, Hawaii hadn’t won a road game vs a team in the top 200 per KenPom. Now they face a rested CS Fullerton team that has covered 6 of their last 7 home games. Rough spot for Hawaii to be a road favorite and we’ll grab the points.

#888 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -4.5 over Southern Miss, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - South Alabama is in a 4 way tie for first place in the Sun Belt and this is the final night for conference games before the tournament starts. All of the Sun Belt teams are playing on Friday and everything will be decided by the end of the night. There are 3 teams tied for 2nd place and there is a remote chance that if things fall correctly we could have a 7 way tie for first place by night’s end! South Alabama just needs to focus on winning this game and then they tie for first place at worst and let the tie breakers fall into place for the conference tournament. These 2 met on February 14th and the Jags won @ USM 84-78. There was one key outlier from the Southern Miss offense in that game. They are a really poor 3-point shooting team ranking dead last in the Sun Belt and 357th nationally hitting only 29% of their triples. In that game, they made 40% of their 3’s and still lost at home by 6. The Golden Eagles will have to shoot lights out from deep to have a chance to keep this close. That’s because the South Alabama defense packs it in and forces teams to shoot 3’s. In fact, almost 65% of opponent’s shots come from beyond the arc vs the Jaguar defense which is BY FAR the most in the country. If you can’t make 3’s, it’s really tough to beat this team and as bad as Southern Miss overall from deep, on the road they make only 27% of their 3’s. Another key in this game will be USM’s inability to take care of the ball. They are 310th in the nation turning the ball over on 19% of their possessions and South Alabama is top 100 at creating turnovers. In the first meeting, the Eagles had a turnover rate of 28% which is ridiculously high. If they do that again in this game and shoot closer to their average from beyond the arc (rather than hitting 40%) this should be an easy cover for South Alabama. The Jags are 10-3 at home this season and USM is 3-11 on the road. The Eagles 2 Sun Belt road wins came vs UL Monroe and Louisiana, the 2 worst teams in the conference both ranked outside the top 300 nationally. If USM couldn’t win at home vs South Alabama shooting way above their 3 point FG% average, we don’t see them hanging tight in this game. We’ll lay it.

#828 ASA PLAY ON UC Davis +1.5 over Hawaii, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We were on Hawaii -4.5 last Saturday at home vs UC Santa Barbara and while they came out with a 3 point win, they missed the cover. We’re going to fade them tonight as they are on the road where they have a 4-5 record on the season. On top of that, this is the FIFTH time since January 1st the Rainbows have made the trip to the mainland for a 2 game road trip. That’s a really tough making a 5,000 mile round trip to California (25.000 total flight miles) in just 2 months. The Bows have split each of their first 4 trips here and all 4 of their wins have come vs the 4 worst teams in the Big West all ranked below 200 per KenPom. When they’ve faced teams in the top half of the conference on the road, they’ve lost. Tonight they face a solid UC Davis team that is 17-11 overall and 10-7 in Big West play sitting 1 game behind Hawaii for 2nd place in the conference. The Aggies are 12-3 overall at home their home losses coming by 1, 2, and 6 points. In Big West play, UC Davis has already topped some of the best teams in the league here including UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, and CS Northridge and we expect they will win this one as well. In their first meeting @ Hawaii the Rainbows won a tight game 75-69 and looking at the stats you’d think they’ve have had a much easier time. UH shot 54% overall and 44% from 3 and UCD hit only 44% overall and 25% from beyond the arc. The key to keeping that close despite not shooting very well was UCD created turnovers on 21% of Hawaii’s possessions giving them a number of extra opportunities. That should change here as UC Davis ranks 29th nationally creating turnovers while the Rainbow offense continues to turn the ball over a lot (323rd in the country). The Aggie offense should play much better here as their numbers have been very good ranking 4th in the Big West in offensive efficiency, 2nd in 3 point FG% and they get to the FT line a lot (2nd most in the conference and shoot 75%). This is the Aggies home finale so they’ll be fully focused on getting a win to move into a tie for 2nd place. They are 9-3 ATS at home this season and Hawaii is 3-5 ATS in Big West road games. Wrong team favored here (Hawaii opened -2 if it holds) and we like UC Davis on Thursday night.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Eastern Washington +1.5 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We took Eastern Washington last Saturday at a 6 point dog @ 1st place Portland State and they dominated with a 12 point outright win. That win pushed the Eagles to a 9-6 record and into 2nd place and dropped Portland State to 12-3 in the league. EWU continues to be massively undervalued as they have been the best team in the Big Sky since February 1st per Bart Torvik analytics and the 60th best team in the entire country over that span. The Eagles are 6-0 since the start of the month (they’ve covered 7 in a row) and what makes that record even more impressive is 4 of those wins have come on the road. On top of that, 2 of those road wins came vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference, Portland State (in 1st place) and Montana State (tied for 2nd with EWU). Their last loss, in late January, came by 3 points vs tonight’s opponent Northern Colorado. In that game, the Eagles actually led for 51% of the game (Northern Colorado led for 34% - tied for 15%) and took 12 fewer FG attempts yet still nearly won. The reason the Bears took 70 shot attempts to just 58 for Eastern Washington was because NC was +7 on the offensive glass and had 8 fewer turnovers. We don’t expect a repeat in those key stats. That’s because EWU is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the Big Sky and Northern Colorado ranks 363rd in the nation (out of 365 teams) at creating turnovers on defense. That means the first match up had 2 key outliers and it was still just a 1 point NC lead with less than 20 seconds left. We’re getting a good line here because Northern Colorado is also on a red hot run winning 7 straight. However, all streaks are not created equal. 5 of their 7 wins have come at home and their 2 road wins during this stretch came @ Sacramento State and @ Idaho State, the 2 worst teams in the league. Prior to that the Bears had lost all 5 of their Big Sky road games. EWU should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc ranking #1 in both 3 point FG% offense and defense in league play. They also make 78% of the FT’s in conference games. The Eagles have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big Sky yet still sit in 2nd place while Northern Colorado is in 4th place despite facing the 9th most difficult slate in league play. We’ll side with Eastern Washington at home on Thursday as they get their revenge in a big way.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 at Orlando Magic, 7:40 pm ET - The Rockets are off a game last night but that was against the lowly Kings so we’re not as concerned about the back-to-back as we normally would be. The Magic have their own scheduling issues as they are off a West Coast trip and playing on just 1 day rest. Not to mention, the Magic had 3 straight down to the wire games that took a toll physically and emotionally. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games at home but those W’s came against the Bucks, Jazz and Nets. In their last seven games at home against above .500 teams they are just 2-5 SU. Houston is 5-1 SU in their last six road games and they have some very impressive wins on that resume: at Charlotte, OKC and at Detroit. One of those five wins came in late February at Charlotte where they were favored by -4.5 points and the Hornets/Magic grade out similarly so this line isn’t as high as it should be based on that comparison. Houston has done extremely well against the Eastern Conference this season with a 15-5 SU record and an average MOV of +8.1ppg in those contests. Houston has a slightly better Net Rating over their last 10 games than the Magic with their offense being the difference between the two teams. The Rockets are the 10th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.4% and should see plenty of shots go through the bucket against a Magic D that allows 47.7% (23rd). Orlando will have a tough time scoring in this one as they shoot just 46.3% (20th) going up against the long-athletic Rockets who have the 5th best FG% D in the league allowing 45.5% shooting by opponents.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -10 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:30pm ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Hawks winning 119-98 – leading wire-to-wire – in the blowout victory. The line in that game was -13.5 but the oddsmakers have adjusted with the news that Jalen Johnson will be out tonight for Atlanta. The underlying story to this game is the fact that the Hawks won by 21-points despite shooting well below season standards at 39% overall and 24% from the 3-point line. Johnson also played just 5 minutes in the game so it’s not like he had an impact on the recent clash. Atlanta will be better prepared without him here and they go 27-points 7 rebounds and 4 assists from recently acquired Kuminga. Washington has 16 wins on the season and is in tank mode for next year's draft. Washington already has a decent young roster and if Anthony Davis and Trae Young get healthy, along with a top pick in the draft, this could be a solid playoff contender next season. Washington is 5-22 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -12.2ppg. They have lost 9 of their last ten on the road and 7 of those nine losses came by double-digits. Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives, have a deep enough roster to win this game by double digits without their All-Star Johnson. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - The Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is very good in the 2nd night of a back to back but this is going to be a different animal tonight. Boston is playing their 4th straight road game and the previous three were all ‘big’ games against the Warriors, Lakers and Suns. This will also be their 3rd game in four nights AND they’re playing in altitude in Denver. The other schedule disadvantage for Boston is the fact the Nuggets have been off Sunday and were embarrassed on national TV by the Warriors. Denver is getting a little healthier with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun giving them some much needed depth. Denver is 46-28 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.0ppg. They are exceptional off a loss with a 42-17 SU record since 2024, winning those games by an average of 5.3ppg. Boston has been fantastic on the road this season at 20-10 SU but this is a difficult spot for them. Denver should have an advantage from beyond the arc with the best 3PT% in the NBA at 39.4% going up against a C’s defense that ranks 17th in opponents 3PT% shooting. Denver also has the 8th best 3PT% shooting defense in the NBA which should contain the Celtics 10th rated 3-point shooting. We will lay the points with the home team that is rested and off a loss.

#684 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -1 over George Mason, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met just on February 7th @ George Mason and the Patriot squeaked out an 80-72 win which ended up being their largest lead of the game. It was basically a dead even contest with each leading for about 43% of the game (14% of the time they were tied). That was despite St Joes shooting only 31% from the field (GM shot 41%) and 27% from deep. The Hawks also only went to the FT line 4 times the entire team (made 2) while George Mason made 10 FT’s. Even with those numbers, the game still went to the wire. The 8 point margin was a bit deceiving as it was a 2 point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Hawks now get a shot at George Mason at home where they are 11-3 on the season. There are 4 teams in the A10 ranked in the top 100 per KenPom (St Louis, VCU, George Washington, and Dayton) and St Joes is 2-0 at home vs those teams topping GW and Dayton. The Patriots are in a bit of a free fall after starting the conference slate with an 8-1 record, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs this St Joes team. They are 4-4 on the road this season but have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. Mason’s 4 road wins in A10 play have all come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference (Loyola, LaSalle, Fordham and St Bonnies) and only by an average of 6 PPG. These 2 sit tied in 4th place in the A10 with 9-5 record but St Joes is playing the much better ball winning 9 of their last 12 with their 3 losses all coming by 8 points or less. The Hawks have covered 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 5-2 ATS in A10 play. George Mason is just 2-5 ATS on the road in conference play and we like St Joes at this short number.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -16 over Maryland, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Terps. First off, they stink on the road with a 1-7 Big 10 record away from home. All but 1 of those losses have come by double digits including losing by 11 @ Rutgers who rates as the worst team in the conference. Their average loss on the road in Big 10 play is by 18 points and now they face one of the best teams in the nation on the road. Despite their 4-12 record in conference play, they’ve actually faced a fairly generous strength of schedule (8th in the Big 10) and faced only 4 games thus far vs the top 5 in the conference (Michigan, Illinois, Michigan St, Purdue, and Nebraska) who all sit in KenPom’s top 11 nationally. They’ve lost all of those games (home or away) by at least 18 points and the average loss in those 4 games is by 27.5 points. The Terps like to shoot the 3 ball (46th nationally in percentage of shots from 3) but they are not good at it (272nd nationally and 15th in the Big 10). Here they face a Nebraska defense that ranks #1 in the conference and 9th in the nation allowing opponents to shoot only 29% from deep. That’s bad news for a Maryland team that already struggles to score on the road averaging just 66 PPG and facing a Husker D that gives up only 60 PPG at home. On the other end, Nebraska also loves to shoot the 3 (8th nationally in percentage of shots from beyond the arc) and they make them at a high rate (1st in the Big 10 in conference games at 38%). The Maryland D struggles big time guarding the arc allowing opponents 37.5% on the season (356th in the nation). The Huskers should get plenty of extra opportunities as well with their defense creating turnovers at a 20% rate (1st in Big 10 play) and Maryland’s offense giving the ball away at an 18% rate (15th in conference play). The Huskers also have a huge edge from the FT line making 79% of their freebies in conference play to just 67% for Maryland. There are 4 teams in the Big 10 that rank outside the top 100 nationally per KenPom (Rutgers, PSU, Maryland, and Oregon). Nebraska has faced 2 of those teams at home winning by 23 vs Penn State and by 35 vs Oregon. We look for another blowout tonight.

#669 ASA PLAY ON USC +6.5 over UCLA, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - We like this spot for the Trojans making the 13-mile trek to the UCLA campus on Tuesday evening. USC is coming off a 1-point home loss vs Oregon over the weekend in a game they led by 6 points with 1:00 minute remaining. It was a game Shot Quality stats (post-game) had USC winning by 11 points. They are catching the Bruins off a massive 1-point home win over Illinois on Saturday. It was a game that Shot Quality stats had UCLA losing by 15 points. They trailed by 23 points at one point and PG Dent was able to go length of the court and deliver the game winning layup as time expired. Definitely an unlikely win. USC head coach Musselman has stated recently he feels his team plays better on the road and we don’t disagree (3-5 Big 10 record at home / 4-4 on the road). Overall, they have an 8-4 record this season in road/neutral games and that includes 4 Big 10 road wins. They are 18-9 on the season and we feel this team could be sitting in a better spot had they been healthy. Their leading scorer Baker-Mazara recently missed 3 games (they lost 2 of those) but is back. 3rd leading scorer Arenas missed the first 18 games of the season but has acclimated himself nicely back into the starting lineup averaging 20 PPG over his last 5. Offensively they do most of their work inside the arc with 69% of their shots in conference play coming from 2 point land. UCLA ranks just 14th in the conference defending inside the 3 point stripe. USC is also a solid offensive rebounding team (5th in the Big 10) and UCLA is a poor defensive rebounding team (17th in the Big 10) which should lead to a number of 2nd chance points. They also get to the FT line with the 6th most frequency in the country so we should have an advantage there as well. The Bruins are just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in conference play this year and we think this game goes to the wire. Take the points.

#646 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago -2.5 over Bradley, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We were on Bradley on Saturday and picked up a nice win as they topped Illinois State by 14 points at home as a 4.5 point favorite. It was a great spot for the Braves as they were coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Valpo (we were on Valpo) and they had their worst loss of the season earlier in the year vs Illinois State. They were waiting for that home game vs their in-state rivals. The Redbirds were not at full strength entering that game playing without big man Chase Walker (as we stated in our write up on Saturday). Bradley took advantage shooting 66% inside the arc in that win which was well above their season average of 48%. UIC sits one game behind Bradley for 2nd place in the Missouri Valley Conference and this is their home finale. The Flames have been red hot to say the least winning 11 of their last 14 games after starting the conference with an 0-4 record. When these 2 met earlier this season @ Bradley, the Flames dominated winning by 15 and they led by 24 at one point. They took care of the glass (+10 rebounds) gathering 34% of their misses compared to 20% for the Braves. We don’t expect anything different here as UIC ranks #1 in the MVC in offensive rebounding and Bradley sits 299th nationally on the offensive glass. The Braves have been very good at home, however on the road they are 4-6 on the season and 2 of those wins came in OT vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the MVC (Evansville & Indiana St). These 2 have almost identical offensive efficiency numbers in conference play, however defensive Illinois Chicago has a huge edge allowing 0.99 PPP to 1.07 for the Braves. UIC also defends the arc at a high level (57th nationally) and that’s where Bradley likes to operate on offense. This number is short in our opinion and we’ll take Illinois Chicago to win and cover in their final home game of the season.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Phoenix Suns, 8pm ET - At first glance it looks like you are paying a premium price with the Blazers in this game but the situation warrants a bet on the visitor in this showdown. Portland is coming off a humiliating loss to the Nuggets in which they allowed 157 points. That type of embarrassment gets the attention of these NBA competitors. Prior to that beatdown the Blazers had won 4 of five games and the other loss was in Minnesota. The game before that solid stretch of games was a home loss to the same Suns team. The Blazers played without their leading scorer in that game (Avdija) and the Suns had Brooks who is out today. Portland is also rested – the Suns are not. Phoenix played an OT thriller last night and this will also be their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they have faced a gauntlet of opponents in OKC, SAS and Orlando last night. Even with their blowout loss to the Nuggets, the Blazers have a better overall efficiency differential in their last 5-games than the Suns. Portland has an eDIFF of +7.2 in their last 5 games, the Suns are minus -5.1 in that same span. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the Suns in this game…so bet the Blazers instead!

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30pm ET - Normally this would be a spot to potentially fade the Nuggets after they destroyed the Blazers on Friday night 157-103 and we would expect a letdown. But the Nuggets are facing the Warriors and there’s no way they won’t be pumped for this game. Plus, the Nuggets are getting healthy with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun and looking like the team that can contend for a Championship. The added benefit from their blowout win the other night is the fact that no starter played more than 30-minutes. Golden State is nothing more than a lower tier playoff team that is more reputation than potential. The loss of Jimmy Butler is just too much to overcome and Steph Curry can only do so much. Draymond Green is on a steep decline and is not close to the player he once was. Even Porzingis won’t move the needle on this team moving forward. Golden State just played two other teams at home (Boston, San Antonio) that are on a similar level as the Nuggets and they lost both by double-digits. Denver is 21-10 SU on the road this season with an average margin of victory of +6.0ppg. They have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Warriors and we are betting this one gets ugly early and the Nuggets cruise to a 10-plus point win.

#848 ASA PLAY ON Wright St -3.5 (-118) over Robert Morris, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wright State has a comfortable lead in Horizon League play sitting in 1st place with a 13-4 record and the 2nd place teams already have 7 losses. However, they will be fully focused here as one of their 4 losses came vs this Robert Morris team earlier this month. The line value here is solid as the Raiders were favored by 1.5 @ Robert Morris and now they are only laying 4 at home (opening line). The Colonials shot 48% overall and 45% from deep in that win while holding Wright St to just 35% from the field and 5 of 20 (25%) from beyond the arc. It’s pretty amazing the Raiders were able to keep the game close on the road with those shooting numbers. This is a very good offensive team that ranks in the top 30 nationally in FG% and hits 36% of their 3’s. It’s not as if Robert Morris is a great defensive teams ranking 181st in FG% allowed and outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Just a poor outing for Wright State and we expect much better at home this afternoon. The Raiders are #1 in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They get to the FT line often (top 100 in FT’s made per game) and make them at a 76% rate in conference play. Robert Morris ranks 347th in the country allowing opponents to make nearly 18 FT’s per game so we would expect the Raiders to have a solid advantage from the charity stripe as they did in the first meeting making 8 more FT’s when compared to the Colonials. Lastly, Robert Morris thrives on the boards but Wright State is solid in that aspect as well and actually outrebounded the Colonials in the first meeting. If the Raiders can hang on the boards again, which we expect them will, they should have an advantage at the FT line and shoot much better this game and that leads to a cover at home.