ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:00 pm ET (Game 2) Sunday - I’m guessing most of you watched Game 1 so a recap really isn’t necessary. The bottom line is this. The Pacers led once with less than 1-second in the game. OKC led by as many as 15-points but Indiana made a few huge 3’s late to pull out the win. Down 0-1 at home we expect a blowout win by the Thunder in Game 2. Let’s not forget, the Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-8 SU at home this entire season, 34-15-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. We like OKC to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-7 SU at home this entire season, 34-14-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. The last team to be that dominant at home was the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19 when they won by an average of 12.2ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. In the regular season meeting on this court in February, the Thunder won 132-111 as an -8-point chalk. We call for another double-digit win in Game 1.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - Have the Suns finally flipped the switch and decided to try and play in the postseason? It sure looks like it with a 5-1 run in their last six games. The Suns have won 4 straight with three quality wins over the Bulls (playing well right now), the Cavaliers and Bucks. In that 5 game stretch the Suns have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +9.1. The Celtics are in the midst of a long 6 game West Coast road trip with 3 straight wins at Utah, Portland and Sacramento. There is a good chance the Celtics sit Tatum tonight with the #2 seed in the East all but locked up. Comparing each teams last 5 games we find very similar numbers with the Celtics 124.9 Offensive Net rating versus the Suns 121.5. The Defensive numbers are also close with the Celtics 112.1 DNR and the Suns at 112.4. The difference is the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule in that 5 game span. The motivated Suns fighting to get into the playoffs will find a way to keep this game close throughout and may even win outright. Grab the points.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to fade the Pistons and back the Spurs. Detroit is coming off a home win over the Pelicans and have a HUGE game looming against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. The Pistons will be without Tim Hardaway Jr tonight and could sit Cade Cunningham again, who has a sore calf and could get 5 full days of rest before the playoffs. Detroit is a fun up-and-coming team, but this is a big ask for them to cover double-digits at home in this situation. The Pistons are 16-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of 1.0ppg. They are 6-11 ATS as home favorites. San Antonio was heavily overpriced for most of the season with Wemby in the lineup which led to a 14-20 ATS road record. But they were competitive away from home with an average point differential of only -3.3ppg. You may be shocked to know that the Spurs have the best Offensive Net rating over the last 10 games in the NBA. Granted the Pistons have great overall numbers on the season but even looking at that 10-game span for both teams we see the Pistons Net Rating of 5.4 isn’t much better than the Spurs of 0.6. We like the Spurs to keep this game close throughout.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We’ve documented the Mountain West teams struggles historically in the NCAA tourney including dogs hitting less than 30% ATS dating back to 2001. The MWC teams are 2-2 SU and ATS so far in this tourney and their historical struggles are not the reason for this play but we mention it. We were on Maryland on Friday when it seemed the whole world was on Grand Canyon. The Terps took care of business winning 81-49 as 10 point favorites. This Maryland team is really good and underrated right now. They are the 2nd highest rated team in the Big 10 per KenPom and that conference is showing their dominance so far in the NCAA tourney. They finished 15-7 in the Big 10 however all 7 of those losses came by 6 points or less so the Terps were really close to having a fantastic conference season. They are 1 of 7 teams in the country that rank in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland’s starting 5 is as good as any in the Big 10 and maybe the country with all 5 averaging between 12 & 16 PPG. They don’t turn the ball over (21st in offensive turnover rate) and hit their 3’s at a high level (26th in 3 point FG%). This team is very complete. We appreciate CSU’s 11 game winning streak but they’ve only played 2 NCAA teams during that stretch. They topped MWC foe Utah State, who lost by 25 points in the opening round vs UCLA, and them beat Memphis in round 1. Their win over the Tigers wasn’t surprising as CSU was favored despite being a lower seed. That’s because Memphis was drastically overseeded and playing without one of the top players and point guard Tyrese Hunter (14 PPG). The Tigers were a 5 seed but had 14 teams ranked higher than them in KenPom that received lower seeds to give you an idea of how overrated they were. Maryland has the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better rebounding team, turn the ball over at a lower rate, and shoot the 3 at a higher percentage. We like the Terps to cover and advance.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.