#762 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -3 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - La Tech is 3-4 in CUSA play and MTSU is in 1st place at 5-1 yet the Bulldogs are a 3 point favorite in this game. Read the market as they say which is telling us La Tech is the right side here and we agree. While LT hasn’t won a conference road game yet, they are a perfect 3-0 at home in CUSA play and they’ve already topped the 1st (Liberty) and 4th (Western Kentucky) rated teams in the league (per KenPom) by 5 and 10 points respectively here in Ruston. Sandwiched in between those 2 impressive wins were 2 points losses @ Jacksonville State and @ Kennesaw State, who both sit tied for 2nd place in the conference. As we mentioned MTSU is in 1st place in the league and they are 2-1 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins came vs FIU, by far the lowest rated team in the conference, and vs Sam Houston State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the conference. Their win over SHSU was on Thursday night and it was down to the wire with the Blue Raiders winning 77-75. In that game SHSU missed a layup as time expired which would have sent the game to OT. Middle Tennessee shot a 47% in that win (43% for Sam Houston) and they made 12 of 26 triples for 46% which was well above their season average of 32% (219th in 3 point FG%). Even with that, this one came to the wire vs a lower tier CUSA team. That won’t happen again in this game as La Tech ranks 25th nationally defending the arc allowing just 29%. The Bulldogs are much better than their 3-4 conference record (La Tech is rated 3rd best team in the league per KenPom) and they are in a must win spot at home if they want to have a chance to move up toward the top of the CUSA standings. Tech also has some extra incentive here as they finished 22-10 last year but were surprisingly knocked out of the Conference USA tourney by this MTSU team who finished 14-19 last season. Let’s lay it with the home team.

#648 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +1 over St Louis, Saturday at 2 PM ET - GW in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses. 2 of those were road losses, including an OT setback vs George Mason who is 6-1 in the A10, and then a home loss to a red hot Duquesne team. The Revolutionaries were 9-0 at home prior to their Duquesne setback and we look for them to get back on track here. St Louis steps in having won 3 in a row but this team has not been impressive on the road this season. The Billikens were 0-3 SU on the road entering conference play and they have won 2 A10 road games but those game @ Fordham and @ Richmond, the 2 worst teams ni the conference who have a combined league record of 2-10. The one good team the played on the road in A10 play was @ VCU and St Louis lost that game by 16 points. They Billikens rank 247th in Haslam Metrics home vs road category while GW ranks 69th at home in that metric. St Louis relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (40th nationally in percentage of points from deep) but they are running into a very good 3 point defense here as the Revolutionaries rank 30th nationally allowing opponents to make only 29% from beyond the arc. GW should also get a number of extra possessions creating turnovers ranking in the top 70 in the country creating giveaways on 19% of opponents possessions while STL turns it over a lot (247th in offensive turnover percentage). George Washington is a bit weak on the boards but that shouldn’t hinder them in this game as the Billikens are as well ranking 327th in offensive rebounding percentage. St Louis has two huge home games on deck next week vs VCU and Dayton (the 2 highest rated teams in the conference) so they might be peaking ahead to those games. They are also playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 games and we think they get beat here. We’ll take George Washington at home.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -2.5 over Penn State, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re catching Iowa at the bottom of the market here as they are coming off 3 straight losses including a setback vs Minnesota on Tuesday night. Because of that we’re getting the Hawkeyes at a cheap price at home tonight in a must win game. They lost @ USC and @ UCLA, which wasn’t surprising, leading into their poor performance vs the Gophers. In their 72-67 loss vs Minnesota, the Hawks made only 3 of 21 triples (14%) and averaged just 1.00 PPP. Those numbers were WAY down from their season averages of 38.7% from 3 which is 15th best nationally and 1.19 PPP which is 19th best nationally. We expect a bounce back from a team that is 10-2 at home (only other loss was vs #3 Iowa State) as they have been very solid at home shooting 53% from the field, 40% from deep, while averaging 91 PPG. They are facing a PSU team coming off a home win over Rutgers earlier this week, but the Nittany Lions are 0-3 SU on the road in Big 10 play and just 2-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of last season. In their road games, Penn State’s numbers have dropped off drastically scoring 14 fewer points while shooting a lower percentage overall and from 3 point range. The Nits will also be without a key player, starter Puff Johnson (10 PPG and 5 RPG) who won’t play in this one due to an injury. Iowa was favored by 9 here last year and now we’re getting them at just -3. Take the Hawkeyes to win and cover at home.

ASA play on OVER 242 New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - This is an extremely high number, but we do expect both teams to get into the mid-120’s and push this game Over the total. These two teams met in late December and combined for 256 total points so we know they can get there. New Orleans is getting some players back and it’s starting to show in their results as they’ve won 4 in a row and 5 of six. They have scored 119 or more points in 6 straight games. A closer look at those last six games we find the Pelicans are playing fast with the 6th highest possession rate in the league. They have been more efficient also with the 6th best offensive rating. Memphis has been playing equally as well with 4 straight wins and 5 of six. The Grizzlies put up points on everyone. Memphis has scored 118 or more in 5 of the last six games and is currently the highest scoring team in the NBA at 123.3ppg. On the season the Grizz are 5th in FG%, 2nd in FG attempts and 8th in 3PT%. Memphis is 5th in offensive rating and EFG% and play at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.91 possessions per game. With both teams willing to play fast, unless both shoot horribly this game should go over rather easily.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright.

#781 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina A&T +12.5 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - North Carolina A&T is 0-7 SU on CAA play which is why this number is set higher than it should be according to our power ratings. Despite their losses, they’ve been competitive in conference play with all of their losses coming by 11 points or less. Towson, on the other hand, is 10-9 on the season but they do not have a single win the entire season by more than 11 points (vs D1 opponents) and their lone 11 point win came in OT. Their average margin in CAA play this season is +3.8 points. The Tigers have been favored by double digits just twice this season and failed to cover both games winning each by just 4 points. Both of those teams, Morgan State & Stony Brook, are rated lower than this A&T team per KenPom. Towson is a poor offensive team averaging just 66 PPG while ranking 350th in FG% and 327th in 3 point FG%. Tough to cover big numbers when you’re a poor shooting team that struggles to score points. NC A&T is by no means a great team but they do a few things well that should keep them close here including not turning the ball over (5th nationally in offensive turnover rate). When comparing the Aggies to Towson, they shoot a better overall percentage, a higher 3 point FG% and FT%. They average 74 PPG on the season and have scored at least 63 in all but 2 games. If A&T gets to that number here, that should be enough to cover this lofty number. Towson has won 4 straight games (overvalued) and they have a rematch with Northeastern on deck. Don’t be surprised if they overlook this winless conference team that we think will give them a battle. Take the points.

ASA play on UNDER 230.5 Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs 2 pm ET (Played in Paris France) - This is a specialty gimmick game by the NBA to broaden its reach in Europe and is being played in Paris, France. So essentially a home game for Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs. This is an interesting situation for both teams with the extended travel and we don’t feel it’s going to help with their offensive efficiency. We ran the season statistics through our math model and it projected 226.3 total points being scored. When we run the numbers in the last five games for each team it settles in at 225.4 total points. The Spurs recently played a 2-game set with the Grizzlies (4th fastest) and had a game against the Bucks who rank 8th in pace of play. Even with those games factored into the equation we still come up with a lower number than the oddsmakers. The Pacers were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago at 101.7 possessions per game, this season they are 10th at 99.4. The Spurs are 18th in pace this season and offensive efficiency rating while scoring just 111.6ppg. Indiana is top 10 in offensive efficiency and scoring 115.2ppg. In this environment we don't see these two teams combining for more than 225 total points.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Stanford -10 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - It looks like Miami may have thrown in the towel.  The Canes have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just lost 117-74 at HOME vs SMU.  Their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December and since he left the team they’ve lost 6 in a row with 5 of those losses coming by double digits.  Their only non 10 point plus loss during that stretch was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  Not only are they not winning, they aren’t covering with a spread record of 3-15 ATS on the season which is the 2nd worst mark in college basketball.  They continue to play without their leading scorer Nijel Pack who has missed the last 8 games due to an injury.  This is a tough spot for a struggling team making the long travel west for the first time this year and playing a game at 11 PM ET.  Stanford has some really solid momentum coming off a win @ North Carolina on Saturday.  The Cardinal have won 3 of their last 4 games and they have a 4-3 record in ACC play despite playing only 2 home conference games thus far, both double digit wins.  They are 9-1 overall at home with 7 of those wins coming by 10+ points.  Stanford is facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 338th in scoring defense allowing 79 PPG.  The Cardinal average 80 PPG at home and should top that number facing by far the worst defense they’ve seen in ACC play.  Miami goes down big again.

#717 ASA PLAY ON Murray State Pick'em over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for Murray State (rated the 4th best team in the MVC) coming off back to back losses.  They lost @ UIC in 2 OT’s and then ran into a red hot Bradley team, who currently has a 16-3 record, in a home loss on Saturday.  In that loss on Saturday vs Bradley, the Braves shot 53% overall, 39% from deep, and made 89% of their FT’s   The Racers have been very good on the road this season already topping both Drake and Northern Iowa (ranked #1 and #3 in the Missouri Valley).  Metrically (Haslam Metrics) has Murray State rated as the 20th best road team in the nation.  They average more PPG, shoot a higher FG%, and a higher 3 point FG% on the road this year when compared to their home stats.  They are taking on a Southern Illinois team that has won 3 straight but 2 of those wins came vs Missouri State who sits at 0-9 in conference play and one of those wins was in OT.  SIU already has 3 home losses this season including 2 in MVC play.  The Salukis have played the easier conference slate (only faced 1 of the top 4 teams thus far) yet Murray State (faced each of the top 3 teams) has better league efficiency numbers on both ends of the court.  The Racers also get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points from the stripe #1 in the MVC) and SIU does not (14% of their points from the FT line – last in the league).  When the Salukis do rarely get to the line, they only make 62% in league play (Murray State makes 73%).  We like the better team in a bounce back spot to win this game on the road.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm et - We have a solid recent comparable game for the 76ers in this situation as they just played in Milwaukee on Sunday with the game going Over 226.5 in that game. That game played out as projections suggested in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency and pace of play. Tonight, the 76ers face a Nuggets team that is better offensively than the Bucks, plays faster and is worse defensively and the O/U is only 3-points higher. The Nuggets are average in terms of Defensive Efficiency ranking 14th at 1.138-points per possession allowed. The 76ers are 20th giving up 1.146PPP. Philadelphia is the slowest paced team in the league but the Nuggets will force them to play faster with their 5th fastest pace in the NBA. The 76ers have allowed 115 or more points in 5 of their last six games with the Over cashing in four of those six. Denver has scored 118+ in 5 of their last nine games and the four that they didn’t reach that number came against defenses ranked 12th or better, which is not the case with Philadelphia. The Sixers have injury concerns tonight with Embiid out and several starters including Paul George questionable but we still like them to get to 110+ in this game. Denver averages 120ppg at home so we expect them to get to that number here too. When these two teams have played out of Conference this season, they have a combined 22-6-2 OVER record.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +4 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on Duquesne (+1.5) on Saturday over St Bonnies and picked up an easy 18 point outright win with the Dukes. This team continues to be undervalued because their overall record is just 9-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 7-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 25th overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics well ahead of the 2nd best team during that stretch which is VCU (53rd). During that stretch they rank 31st nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight Dayton ranks as the 161st best team since December 11th with a 4-4 record during that stretch. Even more recently, since January 1st the Flyers are 1-3 and rank 251st nationally. This team is simply not playing well. Their lone win this month came at home on Saturday vs Loyola Chicago and that game went to OT before Dayton won by 2 points on a half court alley oop play at the buzzer. The Flyers made 12 more FT’s in that game (Loyola only made 9 FT’s and Dayton 21) and it still took OT at home to get a win. Dayton has now lost 7 straight games vs the spread but they continue to be overvalued as a road favorite here vs a team that is simply playing much better than they are right now. Our power rating has Duquesne as a favorite here so we’ll grab the value on the home team.

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - This is a fill in game and both teams are in a tough scheduling situation having played last night. The Clippers beat their intown rivals the Lakers 116-102, the Bulls lost in Portland 102-113. Chicago has seen inflated O/U numbers in recent weeks which has given value to the Under bettors out there paying attention. The Bulls have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight games now and have played at a slower pace, been better defensively and worse offensively. Most important is the Bulls pace of play which has dipped, and their defensive efficiency has gone from 1.163PPP to 1.144PPP. The Clippers hired Jeff VanGundy in the offseason and their defense has steadily improved throughout the season. LA currently allows 1.081PPP which is second in the NBA only behind OKC. It’s a good thing their defense has been that good because they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Clippers have stayed Under their total in 6 of their last nine games and only two of their last ten games have finished with more than 227 total points. The last time these two teams met on this floor they produced 214 total points. We expect another game in that range today.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -8 over Notre Dame, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll go to the well one more time and play against the Irish here. In their quarterfinal game vs UGA the Irish were outplayed across the board but benefitted from 2 key Georgia turnovers (one led to a short ND TD drive and one took points away from the Bulldogs) and a 98 yard kickoff return. Last week vs PSU, the Irish got down 10-0 but were able to rally and score 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to pull out a 3 point win. What caught our eye in that game was the PSU ran for over 200 yards and limited ND to just 116 yards and the Nittany Lions held a +2.1 yards per carry differential. They definitely won in the trenches which would normally get you a win. That’ will be the case here as well although it might be even more drastic. OSU’s defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and passing yards allowed while ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed. In their first 3 playoff games, they held Tennessee to 152 yards rushing (the Vols average 226), they held Oregon to negative 23 yards rushing (OU averages 158), and then shut down Texas to 58 yards rushing (Horns average 159). If ND struggles to run here, we think they are in trouble. They are not a great passing team (92nd in passing YPG) and OSU, as we mentioned, has the #1 pass defense in the country. The Buckeyes have had the tougher road to get here facing Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas while Notre Dame has taken on Indiana, UGA, and Penn State. Ohio State has outscored their 3 opponents by +59 points (closest win was by 14 vs Texas) and outgained those opponents by +470 total yards. ND has outscored their 3 opponents by +26 points and outgained those opponents by just +129 total yards. Ohio State has played the tougher schedule yet they are still better in all of the key stats including YPP margin, YPG margin, YPC margin, and yards per pass attempt margin. The Buckeyes have been simply dominant in their playoff run while Notre Dame, despite winning 3 straight, has not. The favorite has covered 5 straight National Championship games, and we make it 6 on Monday with OSU winning by double digits.

#394 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 6:30 PM PM ET - This game opened with the Bills as a favorite and flipped the Baltimore -1.5 with lots of public backing for the Ravens. We’ll now jump on the home dog as the Bills are getting points at home in the playoffs for the first time since 1967. There were 2 road favorites in last weeks Wildcard round, Chargers and Vikings, and both lost outright. Road favorites in the NFL playoffs are now on a 3-12 ATS run. Part of the line move is most likely due to the fact that Baltimore rolled Buffalo at home in the regular season by a final score of 35-10. However, that game was way back in September, Buffalo was really banged up at the time, it was a short week for the Bills after playing on Monday night, and Baltimore was 1-2 on the season so it was a huge home game for them. We don’t take much away from that result. Bills are 9-0 at home this season (54-18 SU at home since McDermott took over as head coach) while Baltimore was 6-3 on the road. Buffalo averaged 34 PPG at home this season and scored at least 30 in 8 of their 9 at home. The Birds allowed more PPG on the road this season than they did at home and scored fewer points on the road compared to their home games. The Bills defense ranks 6th in the NFL in EPA vs the run so they match up well with this Baltimore offense. Lamar Jackson has a losing playoff record and he’s only played 2 playoff games away from home in his career (1-1 record). Buffalo was embarrassed earlier this season and now they have a little extra motivation as they’ve been bet to a home dog despite having the better record and being undefeated at home. You can be sure that’s been discussed. Let’s also remember that the 2 teams with the best record in the NFL this year were KC & Detroit (15-2 and both had byes last week) and Buffalo beat both. We’ll take the Bills to win this one outright.

#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

ASA play on OVER 219.5 San Antonio at Miami Heat, 3:10 PM ET - The total on this game opened 222, was bet down below 220, but is not trending back up. The betting indicators are telling us this line could go higher yet so we recommend a wager sooner than later. In breaking down the Offensive and Defensive efficiencies for both teams along with pace of play we find the numbers suggest an ‘average’ game in the NBA. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226 total points. Miami is dealing with the Jimmy Butler distraction, and it showed defensively in their last game when they allowed 133 points to Denver. San Antonio is coming off a two-game set against the Grizzlies where they allowed 129 and 140 points. The last seven games involving the Spurs has finished with more total points than this number. Miami has been known for their defense for years under coach Spoelstra but this season they are hovering just above league average in most key categories. They are 12th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. The Spurs are 11th in opponents FG%, 9th in 3PT% allowed but give up the 14th most points per game at 112.7ppg.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Philly didn’t play great last week offensively (5.0 YPP) but they still topped the Packers 22-10 due to their strong defense. The Eagles stop unit has been lights out this season ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed and passing YPG allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. They’ve held 9 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less and we look for the Rams to struggle here offensively. The Eagles might not need to do much offensively to cover this number. QB Hurts had missed 3 weeks leading into last week so he was a bit rusty but with a game under his belt we expect better results on offense. Philly should have plenty of success running the ball which is what the love to do (56% running plays - #1 in the NFL). The Rams defense ranks near the bottom of the league in YPG rushing and YPC and in their meeting in late November, LA allowed over 300 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC vs the Eagles. That was a 37-20 Philadelphia win on the road and now we get them at home. Teams that beat a team in the regular season and then face them in the playoffs are 42-24 SU in those games. The Rams are in a rough spot here with the LA fires affecting their practice time and they were forced to move their game to Arizona last week. Now they much travel across the country and play in cold weather (32 degrees and possible snow) which isn’t ideal for a warm weather, dome type team. The Rams are also on a short week playing on Monday night and now making the long travel. We like the Eagles to win this by at least a TD so we’ll lay it on Sunday.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#388 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8 over Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season for this one. They sat key starters in the final week of the regular season and then had last week off. KC has their entire starting defense available for the first time since week 7 and their entire starting offense is also healthy with the exception of WR Rice. While the did struggle to cover the spread this season despite their 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs played much better down the stretch covering 3 straight winning those games by 14, 8 and 29 points (minus the season finale @ Denver where none of their regulars played). We expect the best version of Kansas City at home on Saturday. Houston is coming off a win as a home dog last week beating the Chargers 32-12 with the Texans benefitting from 4 LAC interceptions including a pick 6. Since 2011, teams that win in the Wildcard round as an underdog are just 2-20 SU in the Divsional round so not a great spot for Houston. Let’s face it, the Texans were pretty darn average all season. They finished 10-7 but played in the weakest division in football (all other teams below .500) and their point differential on the year was +0. They beat 1 team all regular season that finished the year with a winning record and they were 1-5 SU vs playoff teams. It’s going to be cold in KC on Saturday afternoon (windchill around 10 degrees) and dome teams simply haven’t played well in that situation with a 2-7 SU record when temps are below 30 degrees. KC beat this Houston team by 8 a few weeks ago, and now that they are rested and healthy, we’ll call for a double digit win on Saturday.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight

#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation.  They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games).  At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road).  The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games.  The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home.  Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue.  The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits.  Lay it with the Huskers.

#3/4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets vs San Jose Sharks, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Very interesting match-up here as San Jose is having a rough season yet they just won 6-3 at Detroit to snap the Red Wings 7-game winning streak. Ironically the Sharks now have a chance in their very next game to stop the current longest winning streak in the NHL as well and that is the 5-game run that the Blue Jackets are on. While we do expect the confidence to be up for the Sharks after that 6-goal outburst and we look for continued offensive success here, we also expect the Blue Jackets to stay hot. Columbus has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 6-1 run last 7 games. The Blue Jackets, as hot as they have been, have allowed 3 goals per game in their last 4 on home ice and they enter this game in a unique situation. Columbus is off B2B unders that each totaled 5 or less goals. Keep in mind, the season is already halfway over and the Blue Jackets have NEVER had a 3-game stretch this season without at least 1 game totaling 7 goals or more. In fact, Columbus home games have averaged 7.4 goals this season! We get value here because the Sharks trend toward lower-scoring games but this is a unique spot with San Jose off a 6-3 win and a chance to again snap the winning streak of the current hottest team in the NHL. San Jose goalie Georgiev has a 3.44 GAA this season and Columbus goalie Merzlikins has allowed 3.5 goals per start in his last 10 starts. Both of these clubs have had problems on the penalty kill this season too and the Blue Jackets power play has been solid. The goals fly here! Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play Thursday in Columbus

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5 at Utah Jazz,  9 PM ET - When I casually glanced through the lines this number stood out immediately and I couldn’t understand why the Hornets were laying this number on the road. A closer look revealed the injury depleted Jazz are down another starter tonight and their best player Markkanen. That means Utah is down 4 of 5 starters tonight against this Hornets team. Charlotte is healthy for the most part and has the most important pieces available tonight in Ball, Miller and Bridges. The Hornets played well last time out in a close loss in Phoenix. They led going into the 4th quarter before scoring just 15 points in the final stanza. Prior to that game they had beaten the Suns at home, played close at Cleveland and Detroit. Utah is coming off a win over the depleted Nets most recently 112-11 as a -3.5 point home favorite. Prior to that win they had lost 3 in a row. If you examine the season statistics for both teams you will find these teams have similar overall ratings/statistics, but those numbers are based on healthy rosters. Utah has the edge offensively; the Hornets have the advantage defensively. Charlotte has just 2 road wins this season, but the Jazz have just 3 home wins. Given the health of both teams this seems like an easy call with the Hornets minus the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Florida -10 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Missouri has a very good 13-3 record but that’s a bit misleading as they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (300th SOS) which is by far the lowest in the SEC. The Tigers have faced only 3 top 50 teams this season (per KenPom) and lost all 3. The average rating of the 13 teams they’ve beaten this season is 224th. They’ve also played only 2 true road games this season and lost both along with their only neutral site game. All 13 of their wins have come at home. Tonight they face one of the best teams in the country (Gators #6 per KenPom) and they’ve been rolling over teams at home. Florida’s only loss of the season came by 6 points @ Kentucky and they’ve won all of their 7 homes games by at least 18 points. That includes destroying #1 at the time Tennessee by 30 points (we were on Florida in that one) one week ago tonight. The Gators have been great on both ends of the floor ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (only 5 teams can say that). They average 86 PPG (7th nationally) and they are facing a Mizzou defense that barely ranks inside the top 100 in FG% allowed and well outside the top 200 in 3 point FG% allowed. Florida should dominate the glass for extra opportunities as they pull down over 41% of their misses (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Missouri struggles on the defensive glass (258th in defensive rebounding). The Tigers have gotten a kind whistle from the refs so far (with 13 home games) which has led to 24% of their points coming from the FT line (14th the most in the country). They won’t get that whistle on the road tonight and we don’t think they can keep up in this one. Another home blowout for Florida.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -125 vs Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This number reflects just how well the Kings have been playing since the firing of head coach Mike Brown. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight games with the 4th best Net rating in that stretch of games. Milwaukee has been up-an-down this season as evidenced by their four most recent games, going 3-0, then losing by 34 to the Knicks. Off that disastrous loss we predict the Bucks to bounce back at home and win this game by margin. The Bucks are 11-7 SU at home this season with a positive Net rating of +4.0. The Kings have a 10-7 SU road record, but the majority of their wins have come at the expense of teams with losing records. It’s not as good as you would expect, but the Bucks are 28-24 SU, +2.3ppg coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. The big edge the Bucks have in this game is their 2nd ranked 3PT% shooting (38.7%) going up against the Kings defense that is 27th in 3PT% defense allowing 37.6%. This is a series the Bucks have dominated in recent history with a 9-1 SU run and we are betting they get a home win tonight by 6+ points.

#398 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8 PM ET - This game is being played in Phoenix due to the LA wildfires. The line was pick-em before they announced the move from LA to Phoenix. The line has moved to +2.5 which we think is some decent value as we’re getting nearly a FG more than we would have and LA doesn’t have a great home field advantage to being with. In fact, LA has a better road record this year than they do at home. They also average more YPP away from home and allow fewer YPP. The Rams have a huge situational edge here in our opinion. They had a mini bye last week facing Seattle at home and the Rams were able to sit most of their players. Minnesota, on the other hand, had an “all in” game @ Detroit which was a battle for the #1 seed and the Vikings were dominated 31-9. Now they travel again after that physical and emotional battle with the Lions. Detroit has had a rough effect on teams the following week as teams that face the Lions are 4-12 ATS the next week (this season) and 18-31 ATS over the last 3 years in that spot. LA struggled early in the year due to injuries but since getting full strength on offense with WR Kupp and Nacua back they are 8-2 (minus last week’s loss vs Seattle since they sat). They averaged +0.5 YPP more this season with Kupp & Nacua both in the line up. Their defense also drastically improved as the season progressed. After their first 7 games, the Rams allowed 2.44 points per drive and gave up a TD on 27% of opponents drives (both 28th in the NFL). Since then, they have allowed 2.04 points per drive and a TD on 22% of opponents drives (16th and 13th ranking). The point is, this team is much better than their season long record / stats. The Rams were 2-3 SU vs other playoff teams this year but they outgained 4 of those 5 opponents including beating this Minnesota team by 10 points. The Vikes were 3-3 vs other playoff teams but were outgained in 5 of those 6 games so Minnesota was fortunate to win 3 of those games. They were also 9-1 SU in one score games and despite their 14-3 record, they only outgained opponents by 10 YPG on the season. This Vikings team is fortunate to sit where they are to say the least. We like the QB advantage for the Rams as well with veteran Stafford, who has won a Super Bowl, vs Sam Darnold who looked like a deer in headlights last week vs a Detroit defense that was decimated with injuries. That dropped Darnold’s career road record to 12-22 ATS. Let’s grab the dog here.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers.

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#839/840 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points – Michigan State vs Northwestern, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Both of these teams have highly efficient defenses with MSU ranking 10th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.92 PPP and Northwestern ranks 27th giving up 0.96 PPP. Both allow just 66 PPG on the season and NW is far better defensively at home allowing 61 PPG compared to 72 PPG on the road. The Cats have played 1 Big 10 home game this season vs the highly efficient Illinois offense (27th in offensive efficiency) and that game was tied 56-56 at the end of regulation, went to OT and they still only got to 137 total points. Illinois has very similar efficiency numbers, offense & defense, to Michigan State today’s opponents. The Spartans defense has allowed 62 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 Big 10 games this season. NW is a very slow paced team and we expect them to control the tempo at home on Sunday. They do not want to get into a shootout with Michigan State. Offensively, neither team shoots many 3’s (both outside the top 320 in percentage of points scored from deep) and neither is great at hitting them when they do shoot them (MSU 339th in 3 point FG% & NW 215th). This game will mainly be played inside the arc which always helps the Under. Lastly, both are very good defensive rebounding teams which should limit extra opportunities for each. Only 3 of the last 13 meetings between these 2 Big 10 rivals have topped 140 total points and with the current total (as of Saturday) sitting in the high 130’s, we like the Under.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here. Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami. The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS. On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record. Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin. Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

#830 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -5.5 over Cal Irvine, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for a very good UC San Diego team. They are 14-2 on the season and 9 of their 16 games have been played away from home. Both of their losses came in November and they have since won 12 straight games. Cal Irvine is also 14-2 and both of their losses came on the road. Both of these teams are tied atop the Big West with 4-0 conference records. The situation, however heavily favors UC San Diego as UCI will be playing their 5th game in 13 days with 4 of those coming on the road. And going back further, the Anteaters have now played 7 of their last 8 games away from home dating back to December 14th. UCSD, on the other hand, is playing just their 3rd game tonight since December 28th and they’ve been at home for the last week. They just rolled Cal Poly by 27 points at home on Thursday night and they were able to spread out their minutes in the blowout. UCI just played on Thursday night @ Cal State Northridge and picked up a win and now they are playing on the road again just 48 hours later. In their win vs CSUN the Anteaters shot well above their season average from 3 point land (33%) making 44% from deep (CSUN shot 14% from beyond the arc) and made 26 FT’s (CSUN made 17) and that was the difference in the game. We don’t see that happening tonight as UCI faces the highest rated opponent (per KenPom) they’ve seen this season. Last season when these 2 faced off in San Diego, the Tritons were rated 70 spots lower than they are this season (130th last year / 60th this year) and they still topped UCI in that game. UCSD is better across the board offensive (better efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and they’ve been even more impressive at home averaging 89 PPG. San Diego should also have a big advantage in turnover margin in this game which will lead to extra possessions. The Tritons rank 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while UCI turns the ball over a lot (281st in offensive turnover rate). On the other end, UCSD only turns the ball over 14% of the time on offense which is the 25th best mark in the nation. We like UC San Diego to get the win and cover here vs what should be a road weary UC Irvine team.

#377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 46 and has dropped to a current number of 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. We’re now getting some solid value on the Over in this game and we’ll grab it. These 2 rivals met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 48.5 and 44 so we’re now getting the lowest total of the season in this series. In the first game the final score was 18-16 in favor of Pittsburgh but the Steelers kicked 6 FG’s (0 TD’s) and they pushed inside the Baltimore 15 yard line on 3 of those drives. The Ravens put up 6.1 YPP and missed 2 FG’s. They were inside the Pittsburgh 35 yard line 5 times in that game and came away with only 16 points. That game could have and should have been much higher scoring. In the 2nd meeting, the Ravens again put up really solid YPP numbers (6.7 YPP) and scored 34 points. The Pittsburgh offense put up decent numbers averaging 5.2 YPP but only scored 17 points in the game. They were shut out on downs inside Baltimore territory and fumbled at the Ravens 4 yard line so again, the opportunity for more points was there and they still reached 51 total points. Baltimore is 3rd in the NFL averaging 30.5 PPG and at home that jumps to 31.5 PPG. Pittsburgh has been a higher scoring team away from home at 23.1 PPG compared to at home where they average 21.5 PPG. The Steelers also average 5.1 YPP on the road which is higher than their home numbers. The Ravens put up an impressive 6.7 YPP at home which is by far the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 8 home games (including 34 vs Pittsburgh) and if they get to that number, we would need much for Pittsburgh for this to go over. The Steelers have struggled offensively over the last few games but we anticipate they throw caution to the wind here and open up the offense. They know they need to score some points to have a chance in this one because shutting down Baltimore’s offense is a tall task. The weather looks decent with temps in the mid 30’s at game time and 10 MPH winds (no precipitation). This total is too low and we like the Over.

#776 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara -3 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Quick revenger here for Santa Clara who just lost @ San Francisco in OT on December 30th. San Fran’s largest lead in that game was 5 points while Santa Clara led by double digits in the first half and they led by 4 with just 45 seconds remaining. That was the Broncos only loss in their last 9 games and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Dons have been very solid this season, however on the road they are just 1-2 on the year with their only win coming at Pacific (ranked 282nd per KenPom). In those 3 true road games, SF has shot just 42% while allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. They’ve also allowed 79 PPG in those games which is 12 points above what they allow on the season. Santa Clara is outscoring their opponents by +12 PPG at home and they are averaging 86 PPG here so we expect some solid offensive success for the host. The Broncos beat a very good Oregon State team here at home on Thursday night and they spread their minutes out very nicely with 9 players 10+ minutes. They also have the rest advantage having played just 3 games since playing @ San Francisco including a week off prior to beating Oregon State on Thursday. The Dons have played 4 games since beat Santa Clara and this will be their 5th game in 13 days. The Broncos won this game at home by 7 points last year as a 2.5 point dog and we look for another home win on Saturday. Lay it with Santa Clara.

#764 ASA PLAY ON Montana -120 over Northern Colorado, Saturday at 6 PM ET - As you already know, we were on Montana State -1 over Northern Colorado on Thursday night. NCU won 85-84 but if you didn’t see how the game played out we’ll let you know. Montana State led by 20 points with 12 minutes remaining in the game and Northern Colorado made a furious comeback to win by 1 point. The Bears shot 57% from the field (Montana State shot 53%) and 50% from beyond the arc (Montana State shot 43%) and still needed a huge comeback to win by a single point. NCU is not a deep team (305th in bench minutes) and now 48 hours later they are on the road again after making their huge comeback on Thursday night. Montana was at home on Thursday and topped Northern Arizona to keep their home record perfect at 8-0 and going back further they’ve won 24 of their last 27 home games. One of those few losses was last year vs this Northern Colorado team. In that game, Montana led by 10 points with 4:00 minutes left in the game and blew it losing in OT giving them a little extra incentive in this one. When looking for potential upsets on the road, we look for solid defensive teams that can make 3’s. The Bears don’t fit that criteria as they rank outside the top 300 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% allowed. As we mentioned above, they made 50% of their triples on Wednesday but we think they get back to the norm here as they make only 33% on the season (201st nationally). Tough spot for the Bears and we’ll lay the small number with Montana.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +2 over Bradley, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Bradley is coming off a 7 point home loss vs Drake on Wednesday and the Braves have been trending down the last few weeks. Prior to that loss, Bradley had lost 3 straight ATS (now 4 straight) struggling with Missouri State at home and needed OT to beat Valpo and Indiana State prior to that. The Braves started the season red hot from beyond the arc but that was bound to regress. They are still ranked #2 nationally in 3 point FG% (41%) but over their last 4 games they’ve hit 25%, 35%, 32%, and 28% from deep, all well below their season average. UIC has been trending up winning 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Belmont. The same teams that Bradley recently struggled with (Drake & Missouri State), UIC beat Drake by 4 and Mizzou State by 17 over the last few weeks. Despite playing very well as of late, the Flames continue to get no respect from the oddmakers who have tabbed them as underdogs in 6 straight games and they’ve covered all 6 winning 5 of those games outright. The Flames are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 60 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are 5-1 at home this season. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this flailing Bradley team and this is it. We look for Illinois Chicago to win this game at home.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -5.5 over Texas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is higher than it would have been in favor of OSU compared to what it would have been a few weeks ago but it’s warranted in our opinion. The Buckeyes just topped Tennessee & Oregon by a combined score of 83-38 which is arguably 2 of the most impressive wins by any college team this season. They simply dominated 2 very good opponents. Not only on the scoreboard but in the stats as well. They outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 973 to 532 total yards. The Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage in each game as well averaging nearly 5.2 YPC on the ground while allowing just 1.9 YPC. To put that defensive effort into perspective, both the Vols and Ducks came into the game averaging 4.9 YPC so OSU held them a full 3.0 YPC below their average. Impressive to say the least. Texas topped Clemson by 2 TD’s and then went to OT vs ASU before winning 39-31. However, unlike the Buckeyes who dominated, the Horns were outgained in the 2 games combined and lost the line of scrimmage averaging just 3.1 YPC while allowing 4.0 YPC. The vaunted Texas defense gave up 922 total yards in those 2 games. We can argue that OSU dominated 2 better teams than Texas played as both Tennessee and Oregon would be favored vs either of the Longhorn opponents (ASU & Clemson). The Ohio State defense has been lock down allowing less than 300 total yards vs each of their first 2 opponents. We think Texas will struggle on offense in this game while the OSU offense is facing a Longhorn defense that has given up nearly 1,000 yards in their 2 games. OSU by at least a TD here.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings.

#820 ASA PLAY ON Montana State Money Line -110 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Montana State has a 5-10 record to date but they’ve played a very tough schedule with 10 road games, including losses @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, @ TCU, and @ USC. They are finally back at home after a month plus on the road (last home game was Dec 7th) and they’ve lost 5 straight games (all on the road). Hungry for a win and back at home with a light spread, we really like this spot for an undervalued Montana State team. Northern Colorado has a 10-5 record, however they’ve played a much easier slate and they’ve played only 1 road game in the last month which was a win @ Denver that ranks 327th per KenPom. The Bears are 2-4 SU on the road this season where their defense has been shaky allowing 81 PPG on over 48% shooting by their opponents. Not only have they been poor on the road defensively, for the season the Bears rank 330th in eFG% allowed, 228th in 3 point FG% allowed and 323rd in 2 point FG% allowed. Montana State has a huge edge defensively in this game ranking 101st in eFG% allowed and 9th nationally defending the arc despite playing a tough schedule. The Bobcats have been very unlucky as well in regards to FT “defense” where their opponents have made 80.5% from the stripe which is the highest percentage in the nation. Montana State will also have revenge on their minds here after losing a tight 3 point game @ Northern Colorado last season blowing a 10 point lead with less than 8 minutes to go. Prior to last year’s loss, Montana State had won 8 of the previous 9 in this series and they are 28-8 SU at home all time vs Northern Colorado. Small spread here and we grab the home team.

#284 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +2.5 over Notre Dame, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Georgia over Notre Dame last week and felt we were on the right side of that game and still do. Georgia outgained the Irish 300 to 244 and 4.9 YPP to 4.0 YPP. The Irish had zero passing game in that win (90 yards passing) and benefitted from a 98 yard kickoff return and 2 UGA turnovers. Not only did the Bulldogs have 2 turnovers (0 for Notre Dame) but they were very influential giveaways. One was inside the ND 15 yard line as UGA was driving for a TD or FG and the other was inside their own 15 very late in the first half which led to ND’s only offensive TD of the game on a 13 yard drive. Spanning the 1st and early 2nd half, the Irish scored 17 of their 23 points in a 54 second span with a FG, quick turnover by UGA into a short TD, and a kickoff return. This team did very little offensively and now they face a PSU defense that is every bit as good as Georgia’s defense. The Irish rely very heavily on the run but they are facing a PSU defense that is in the top 10 in both rushing YPG and YPC allowed. The Nittany Lions have allowed 166 yards in 2 playoff games (vs SMU and Boise) on just 2.1 YPC. Last week vs what most consider to be the best RB in college FB, they held Boise’s Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 YPC. We think Notre Dame struggles again offensively, especially with their #1 offensive threat, RB Love, banged up (only 6 carries for 19 yards last week). The Irish defense played well last week vs the run, back up UGA QB Stockton was successful with 234 yards passing. The Irish sold out against the run last week and may again this week and we trust PSU QB Allar to have a big game as well. While the defenses in this game are both high level, PSU’s offense is much more balanced with 203 YPG rushing and 234 YPG passing giving them a better chance to be successful on offense We have these teams rated almost dead even so not sure when ND is almost a 3 point favorite on this neutral field in Miami. The Irish have covered 10 in a row so that plays a role in this number. We’ll take the points with PSU.

ASA NBA PLAY UNDER 221 Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Mavs will be without Luka and Kyrie again tonight which greatly diminishes their scoring numbers. For the entire season the Mavs have the 6th best offensive net rating in the NBA at 115.6. In their last 7 games without Luka Doncic, they fall to 24th in ONR and now they don’t have Kyrie Irving and his 24ppg to rely on. Dallas did score 118 last time out against the Lakers but the Mavs shot well above season standards, making 45 of 86 field goal attempts or 52%. They also hit 18/38 3PT’s or 47%. Portland is coming off a game in New Orleans last night, a 119-100 win. The Blazers also had an extremely hot shooting night of 55% overall and 36% from Deep. Those numbers were much higher than their season averages of 45.1% and 33.7%. Don’t expect those statistics again tonight against a Mavs team that holds opponents to the 9th lowest FG% in the NBA. The Blazers defense is bottom 10 in terms of defensive net rating for the season, but in their last four games they’ve been much better, ranking 10th. With Luka in the lineup the Mavs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season. Without him on the floor they are average in tempo. The Blazers prefer to play slower overall for the season and have slowed even more in their last five games. These two teams met on Dec 28th and the O/U number was 225. They combined to score 248. Why have the oddsmakers established a much lower number for this game after that game was so high scoring? That has us on Under here.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7 PM ET - This line is a little light given what these teams have been favored by or an underdog to similar opponents. Not only that, but the last time these two teams squared off was in Chicago with the Pacers laying -3.5-points, which should have them favored by at least -8.5-points at home. Chicago was just +5.5-points at home against the Knicks and +3 at home vs. the Spurs. Indiana has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five as they continue to get healthy. In their most recent home game, they were favored by -2.5-points against the Suns and won by 16-points. The Bulls are coming off a miraculous comeback win against the Spurs after trailing by 17-points in the 4th quarter. Going back to the start of last season the Pacers are 41-23 SU at home with an average +/- of plus +6.1ppg. Indiana has a +4.1 Net Rating over their last ten games, the Bulls are minus -2.6 in NR in their last 10. More than anything we like the value in the short number and will back Indiana in this one.

#682 ASA PLAY ON George Mason -11 over Richmond, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Richmond Spiders.  They are a very poor shooting team ranking outside the top 330 in FG%, FG made per game, and 3 point FG%.  They will struggle big time offensively in this game facing a high level George Masion defense that ranks 3rd nationally allowing opponents to make only 35% of their shots and 12th nationally giving up just 61 PPG.  The Patriots have held over half their opponents (8) to less than 60 points this season and only 1 team has topped 70 points in regulation vs this defense and that was Marquette.  They held a great Duke offense to 68 points which is impressive as the Blue Devils have been held to less than 70 points just twice all season.  George Mason will also come into this home game with a chip on their shoulder after losing their most recent game @ Rhode Island as a favorite after winning 8 of their previous 9 games (only loss @ Duke during that stretch).  On the other side, Richmond will be playing their 2nd straight road game after upsetting UMass on the road as a dog over the weekend.  Nice set up with the host off a loss as a favorite vs the road team off a win as a dog.  That was the Spiders first road win this season (1-4 SU in true road games) and as poor as they’ve been shooting the ball this year, on the road they’ve been abysmal making 38% of their shots and 25% of their triples.  We highly doubt Richmond gets out of the 50’s in this game (they are averaging 53 PPG their last 3 trips to GMU – all losses) while George Mason is averaging 80 PPG at home this season.  Lay it.

#704 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -3.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas is back home off an embarrassing performance at #1 Tennessee on Saturday. They lost that game 76-52 and they were dominated on the boards which led to head coach John Calipari calling out his team’s effort. After that loss, Calipari has individual meetings with each of his players so we expect a huge effort at home to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Razors are undefeated at home this season while Ole Miss has played only 2 true road games all season. The Rebels won @ Louisville in early December when the Cards were decimated by injuries and they lost @ Memphis by 17 10 days ago. Arky has one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 17th in eFG% and inside the arc they make 60% of their shots which is 7th in the country. They are facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside the top 100 defending the 2 point shot. While Arkansas was dominated on the boards vs Tennessee, they should hold their own here vs a Rebel team that isn’t great on the boards (outside the top 170 in offensive and defensive rebounding). The Razorbacks have won 5 straight at home vs Mississippi and we’re getting an unranked home team favored over ranked road team which has been a profitable situation over the years. Lay it with Arkansas.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (-1.5 goals -105) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas is in a great spot here which is why they are a -260 favorite on the money line.  Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the even money range on this one.  Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Golden Knights in this spot.  However, we will mention that the expected starters are Ilya Samsonov for Vegas and Alexandar Georgiev for the Sharks. Samsonov was in the starters' crease at the morning skate earlier today and so we expect him to get the call here. He has been absolutely fantastic with a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts and a total of only 7 goals allowed in those 5 starts!  The Sharks Georgiev, on the other hand, has continued to struggle. He has an 0-4 record in his last 4 starts and has allowed at least 4 goals in all 4 starts! San Jose is off B2B wins but this followed 8 straight losses and defeats in 11 of last 12 games.  The Sharks have averaged scoring just 2 goals in last 15 games (including the B2B wins) and just don't have the offensive production necessary to keep up with the high-flying Golden Knights.  Right now Vegas has been on a mission with wins in 12 of last 14 games including 8 of last 9!  Also, each of the last 7 wins for Vegas have come by a multi-goal margin.  Each of the last 4 Sharks home losses have come by a multi-goal margin.  The Golden Knights have scored an average of 4 goals in their last 6 road victories.  Vegas also has won the two meetings this season by a combined 13 to 6 and they won the 4 meetings last season by a combined 18 to 5.  Look for this dominating pattern to continue here.  Road team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Vegas is the value play here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games. Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those games the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games. While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th. We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th. Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Nebraska, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Iowa is off their worst loss since February of 2020 losing @ Wisconsin on Friday 116-85. That dropped the Hawkeyes to 1-2 in Big 10 play and this becomes a must win with 2 of their last 3 on the road. Iowa’s offense played quite well in that loss shooting 48% and averaging 1.12 PPP. Not surprising as they rank in the top 10 nationally in FG%, 2 point FG% and PPG on offense. They are also 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency. The defense obviously let them down on Friday night. Wisconsin shot ridiculously well making 65% of their shots overall, 68% from 3 point land (21 of 31) and 88% from the FT line. While Iowa didn’t play well defensively, it was just one of those nights for the Badgers when everything went in. Expect a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court tonight for the Hawks and if their offense continues to play well, this should be a win. Nebraska is coming off a very important home win over UCLA on Saturday which was their 20th straight home win, however the Huskers are simply a different team away from home. They’ve played one Big 10 road game this season and lost by 27 points @ Michigan State and the Huskers have won only 5 of their last 21 conference road games. Iowa has just 1 home loss this season and that was vs #3 Iowa State in a game the Hawkeyes never trailed until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. At home this season Iowa has shot 54% and 41% from deep. They are facing a Nebraska defense that has allowed opponents to score almost 40% of their points from beyond the arc, 12th most in the country. Not a great match up for this Iowa offense at home. The Hawks have an extra day off as well playing on Friday while Nebraska played on Saturday. Carver Hawkeye Arena has been a house of horrors for the Huskers losing 9 of their last 10 there. Huge home game for Iowa and they’ll come with some extra effort / emotion here after their embarrassing loss on Friday while the Huskers could be a bit flat after a big home win on Saturday.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Florida -2.5 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - What a perfect spot to grab Florida. The Gators are coming off their first loss of the season @ Kentucky on Saturday. Now they are favored at home over the only undefeated in the country #1 Tennessee. That number speaks volumes. In their 106-100 loss @ Kentucky, the Gators normally stout defense played very poorly. They allowed the Wildcats to average a ridiculous 1.47 PPP while shooting almost 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. It was by far the worst defensive performance of the season from a Florida team that ranks inside the top 20 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. On a positive note, the Gator offense continued to roll ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency after putting up triple digits and 1.39 PPP on the road vs a very good UK defense. The Vols are off a big home win over Arkansas but they’ve played only 1 true road game since November 9th. That was a 2 point win @ Illinois (a very talented but very young team) and the Illini shot only 29% from the field and 17% from deep in that game and still almost won. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, Tennessee has lost 9 of their 11 games @ Florida including the last 2 where they were favored in both games and lost by double digits. Since the start of last season, the Gators have won 21 of their last 22 home games with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky last year. This season, SEC home teams are 132-3 SU while on the road they are just 15-14 SU. We like Florida to get the win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - In simple terms, the Vikings and Lions rate similarly in terms of offense, but the defense of Minnesota is much better than the Lions D. Detroit averages 6.2YPP on the season, Minnesota averages 5.7YPP. The Lions are averaging 410 total YPG, the Vikings put up 353YPG. Detroit ranks 7th in rushing yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game. Minnesota is 15th in rushing YPG, 3d in passing. You get the idea. The defenses do not compare as the injuries to Detroit have decimated this stop-unit. The Vikes give up the 8th fewest Yards Per Play at 5.2 and allow just 18.8ppg, 4th lowest average in the league. The Lions defense is giving up 5.8YPP (4th most) and have been especially bad in recent weeks allowing 7.6YPP in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week to San Francisco. What’s alarming is the fact that the Niners had scored 17 or less points in 5 of their previous six games, then put up 34 against this Lions defense. In that stretch of game for San Francisco the only other time they put up more than 17-points was against the Bears. Minnesota is playing with revenge as they lost at home 29-31 to a full-strength Lions team back in October. The Lions kicked a last second FG to win that game as a 1-point dog. Grab the points with Minnesota here.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number.

#345 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs +11 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Of course we know KC will sit some guys here but this line has moved WAY too much in our opinion based on that.  This number is double digits off from what it would be had KC not clinched and was playing their starters.  They will still play some starters as they can’t site everyone.  Head coach Andy Reid has been in this situation a number of times in the final week of the season and the Chiefs have still played very well while sitting guys in this spots.  In fact, Reid sat his starting QB in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2023 in the final week of the season and KC won 2 of those games outright and another went to OT.  And while QB Mahomes won’t play here, we’re not looking at some inexperienced back up playing his first snaps.  KC will start veteran Carson Wentz at QB (22,000 career passing yards and 153 TD’s) and he’s playing for a potential contract whether it be in KC or somewhere else so we expect a solid game from him.  Wentz obviously has much more experience than Denver QB rookie Bo Nix and a lot less pressure on him in this game.  A lot falls on Nix shoulders (and his teammates) here as Denver needs a win to make the playoffs.  Denver had must win games the last 2 weeks to potentially make the playoffs and couldn’t get it done losing to the Chargers & Bengals.  Now another must win here certainly doesn’t mean they will win this game, especially by margin.  Too many points here we grab KC plus double digits.

#844 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Maryland, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We just laid 4.5 points with Oregon on Thursday night at home vs Illinois and it was a terrible pick to say the least. The Ducks were embarrassed 109-77 and we expect a huge bounce back at home on Sunday. As of this writing the line is Oregon -3 so we’re getting some nice value because of that terrible performance as the Illini rank in the top 10 per KenPom and Maryland sits at 26th and the line is lower for this one. The Ducks came into their game on Thursday night with just 1 loss, a 2 point setback to a very good UCLA team. Their defense had been really good prior to Thursday when Illinois went off for 58% from the field and 55% from the arc on a ridiculous 1.40 PPP. You can bet veteran head coach Dana Altman will have his team locked in defensively after that effort. The Ducks have played a very difficult schedule to date (27th SOS) and have some outstanding wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, and San Diego State. Maryland is in a rough situation as they were @ Washington on Thursday night now 72 hours later @ an angry Oregon team. The Terps lost at Washington (the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) by 6 on Thursday and they’ve lost both of their true road games this season. Unlike Oregon, the Terps have played a very easy schedule to date (330th SOS) and they are just 2-3 SU vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. Maryland has won only 3 of their last 17 road games in conference play and while we think they’ll be a solid team this year, this is not the spot. Lay it with Oregon.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#354 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +6.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This young Washington team clinched their first playoff berth since 2020 last week beating Atlanta in OT. While they are still jockeying for seeding position, we doubt that is a huge motivating factor for a team that wasn’t supposed to make the post season. Sure they are saying the right things about coming to Dallas to win, but they may just be happy to be in the postseason. The Cowboys have had a poor season by their standards but they have not quit. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 games including topping this Washington team on the road a little over a month ago. They haven’t been great at home this year, however in their last game here the beat a red hot Tampa Bay team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They are also coming off an embarrassing 41-7 loss @ Philly last week (Eagles were playing for the NFC East title) and Dallas committed 4 turnovers in that game which led directly to 24 points for Philly (including a pick 6). QB Rush had been playing well prior to last week and we expect Dallas as a whole to give a solid effort after that loss, especially vs a hated division rival Washington. No way they lay down in this game. The Commanders have won 4 straight but let’s take a closer look at that run. They beat a bad 3-13 Tennessee team who is 2-14 ATS this season, then barely beat a bad Saints team on the road by 1 point and were outgained on a YPP basis, beat Philly by 3 after the Eagles got up 14-0 prior to losing starting QB Hurts for the game, and last week they were outgained again on YPP basis and beat Atlanta in OT. Not so sure this Commanders team is playing great ball right now despite their 4-0 run. This is also a rare situation where Washington is actually favored @ Dallas and the past history has not gone well for them. Dallas has been home dog to Washington just 8 times since 1990 and the Cowboys have covered all of those games while going 7-1 SU. We think this will be a battle on Sunday and we’ll take nearly a full TD with the home team.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors -135 vs Memphis Grizzlies – 8:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies look like a MASH unit right now but still managed an upset win of the Suns the other night. Golden State is coming off a game against the 76ers on Thursday and looked like the old Warriors with a 139-105 spanking of Philly. GST has had their ups and downs this season with vets Green, Curry and Wiggins in and out of the lineup. Even if not all will be available tonight against this big game versus Memphis, this looks like a great spot for a home win. The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the Western Conference and played much better than expectations. On Saturday they will likely be without Morant and Aldama, two of their 5 starters and top 4 scorers. Aldama is 2nd in rebounds, Morant leads the Grizz in assists. This game has more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Grizzlies destroyed the Warriors 144-93 just a few weeks ago in Memphis. Prior to that, the last three meetings were won by Golden State by an average of 15ppg. Memphis has 23 wins this season but 14 have come at home. The Warriors looked really good last time out and with this game having more meaning we predict the win for the home team.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points.

#356 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bengals “have to” win this game to stay alive for the playoff race + have both Denver and Miami lose. Because of that perception, Cincinnati is favored in this game by the same number (or very close) they were favored at home just a few weeks ago. In that game, which was also a huge game for the Bengals as they were trying to catch up in the playoff race, the Steelers won 44-38. Pitt outgained Cincy 520 to 375 in that win and they had a +1.3 YPP margin. The thought in this game by many will be that once Baltimore beats Cleveland earlier in the day, then the Steelers have nothing to play for because the Ravens will have clinched the AFC North title. Wrong. Pittsburgh will have a lot to play for no matter what the Ravens do earlier in the day. As of now, the Steelers are sitting in the 5th spot in the AFC playoffs which would mean they face Houston in the opening round. Lose here and an LA Chargers win on Sunday moves Pitt down and they have to travel to Baltimore for the wildcard. They surely would rather face the Texans. On top of that, Pitt has lost 3 straight games (vs 3 of the best teams in the NFL - @ Philly, @ /Baltimore, and vs KC) and no way head coach Tomlin wants them to hit the playoffs on a 4 game losing streak. He’ll play to win. Situationally it’s a great spot for the Steelers having 3 extra days off having played on Xmas Day. The weather is not going to be great with 10+ MPH winds and a windchill close to single digits. That should favor the team with the better running game which is Pittsburgh. They rank 10th in the NFL in YPG on the ground and they are facing a Cincy D that ranks 21st in rush defense. The Bengals, on the other hand, rank 29th in YPG rushing and might be without starting RB Brown for this one, facing a Pitt defense that ranks 7th at stopping the run. Pitt has been a home dog vs the Bengals TWO times since 1990 (1-1 ATS) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season the Steelers are 11-4-2 ATS as a home dog and we like them to get the outright win here.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -2 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough turnaround for San Francisco who played on the road @ Pacific just 48 hours ago and now they are @ Washington State. The Dons pulled off the 89-81 win @ Pacific but a non-cover as SF was favored by 13 over the Tigers who now have a record of 5-12. The Dons shot lights out hitting 51% of their shots, 45% of their triples and mad 19 of 21 FT’s but were still unable to pull away (final margin of 9 was their largest of the game) from a bad Pacific team. Now they travel to Washington State who is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with all of their wins coming by double digits and they’ve won 21 of their last 23 at home. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country (49.5%) ranking 28th but at home they up that to over 52% from the field while averaging 88 PPG. These 2 have nearly identical records (WSU 12-3 and SF 13-3) but Wazzou has played the tougher schedule at 109th SOS compared to the Dons at 229th. San Fran has played only 2 true road games this season winning @ Pacific as we discussed and losing @ Bradley. The situation heavily favors the home team who rarely loses on their home court. With the small spread, we’ll grab Washington State

#650 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -10.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This sets up nicely situationally with NDSU coming off a rare home loss as a favorite while Nebraska Omaha is on a short 2 day turnaround coming off a road win @ UND as an underdog. We were on NDSU a few nights ago at home vs St Thomas and they lost their first game since November 26th with the Tommies winning 89-85. St Thomas hit 54% of their shots (43% for NDSU) and 47% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. We expect the Bison to come out with some fire at home after that tough loss. Prior to that this North Dakota State team had been destroying opponents at home. Their previous 3 home games were wins by margins of 29, 36, and 34 points with the latter 2 coming vs Western Michigan and Cal State Bakersfield who both rank higher than this Nebraska Omaha team. They’ve been shooting as well as any team in the nation ranking 4th in the country in eFG% and 3rd in 3 point FG% hitting just over 41% and they make nearly 79% of their FTs. That’s bad news for a Nebraska Omaha defense 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG% allowed, and 281st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Bison average 85 PPG at home while UNO gives up 78 PPG on the road so we expect NDSU to have a huge night offensively. Can the Mavericks keep up in this game? We don’t think so. They’re not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 220 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They’ll need to get hot from 3 to stay in this game but that’ll be tough as they make only 33% from deep (162nd nationally) and NDSU defends the arc very well ranking 50th. UNO has averaged just 66 PPG in their 6 road losses this season and we look for an easy with for North Dakota State in this one.

#281 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo -3 over Liberty, Saturday at 11 AM ET – BAHAMAS BOWL - The level of motivation for this game looks to be drastically different. Buffalo was expected to be a 5 win type team (pre-season win total) and they exceeded expectations with a very solid 8-4 record. They did not make a bowl game last season and they’ve only played in 6 bowl games in school history so they are thrilled to be playing on Saturday in the Bahamas Bowl. Liberty had much higher expectations this season. They were supposed to win double digit games and many thought they would be a team that could compete for the Group of 5 spot in the CFP. That didn’t happen and they were really never close to meeting expectations this season. The Flames finished 8-3 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in college football. They were favored in every game yet lost 3 games outright and won 2 games in OT when they were tabbed as double digit chalk. They finished the season with an ATS record of just 3-8. Liberty will be without starting QB Salter who started every game the last 2 seasons and is headed to Oregon State in the portal. They will also be without 3 starting offensive linemen who are headed elsewhere. Buffalo won only 3 games last season and are sitting in a bowl game this season. Teams in that situation (0 to 3 wins last year and now in a bowl game) are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) as long as their opponent isn’t in the same situation which Liberty is not (they won 13 games last season thus a very disappointing year in 2024 for the Flames). Let’s take Buffalo here.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -9 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET – MAYO BOWL @ Charlotte, NC - Minnesota is always motivated come bowl season under head coach PJ Fleck. He seems to always have them ready this time of year winning 5 straight bowl games. They’ve won those games by an average of more than 10 PPG. The Gophs have very few opt outs / transfer portal players that won’t play here. They seem to be all in here as they usually are during bowl season. It looks like the direct opposite situation on the other sideline. Va Tech is missing a ton of key players and it’s high possible 13 to 14 starters won’t play in this game. Their offensive line looks decimated heading into this game, top RB Tuten (1,100 yards rushing) will be out, and it looks like they will be down to their 3rd string QB in this game. Starting QB Drones is injured, back up Schlee is banged up, so it could be Pop Watson (47 career pass attempts) under center. On defense the top 6 players in snaps played this season for Tech will be out of this game. So while Minnesota is focused fully on this game, we’re not so sure VT will be. Losing all of those key players from a team that wasn’t all that good to begin with (6-6 record & 3-6 vs bowl teams) might be just too tough to overcome. We just don’t see this shorthanded VT team being able to move the ball vs a Minnesota defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense and top 21 in YPP allowed, rush defense, and pass defense. The ACC has shown to be an overrated conference this bowl season with a 2-9 SU record while the Big 10 is 8-5 thus far. When Big 10 faces the ACC in bowl games they are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS run. Minnesota by double digits.

#800 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Illinois, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Illinois makes the long travel to play @ Oregon Thursday night. The Illini have played only 1 true road game this season and they lost @ Northwestern. The other “semi” road game they played was in Birmingham, AL vs the Crimson Tide and Illinois lost that game by double digits. While the Illini are talented, they are very young with a number of freshman and sophomores in their rotation (304th in experience) and we think they’ll struggle at times on the road vs high level teams. That’s what they get here @ Oregon. The Ducks are very good and experienced with 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 8 of their top 9 players in terms of minutes per game are seniors. They are 12-1 on the season, despite playing a really tough schedule (39th SOS), and their lone setback was by 2 points vs a UCLA team that is 11-2. The Ducks have been really good at home winning 21 of their last 25 games in Knight Arena and their average margin of victory at home this season is +19 PPG. The Illini rely heavily on the 3 point shot (58th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc) and getting to the FT line (53rd in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe). Two problems here, that plays right into Oregon’s defensive strengths (24th defending the arc & 60th in points allowed from the FT line. On top of that, Illinois has shot poorly away from home which can be expected from a young team. They have made only 37% of their shots and 26% of their triples in their 1 true road game @ NW. We like the Ducks to win and cover at home.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors -125 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - This is a horrible scheduling situation for the 76ers who are off a game last night against the Kings. They are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 5th in nine days. All five of these games have been played on the road which makes it that much tougher. Meanwhile, the Warriors are off an embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers 96-113 on Monday. Golden State is well rested here and should be eager to atone for their last home game. When playing without rest the 76ers are 8-9 ATS their last 17, Golden State is 10-7 ATS their last 17 when playing with a rest advantage. Philadelphia is one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 44.7% (25th) and make the least amount of field goals per game at 38.2. They shoot just 33.8% from beyond the Arc which ranks 28th. They will have a hard time scoring against this Warriors D that is 4th in opponents FG%, 6th in 3PT% D and give up the 9th lowest points per game in the NBA. Golden State doesn’t have great offensive numbers themselves at 44.3% shooting and 35.9% 3PT% but Philly has one of the worst FG% defenses overall and rank 15th in Defensive Efficiency. The Warriors have struggled of late which has forced the oddsmakers to set this line lower than it should be. This is a perfect “buy low” spot on the Warriors and, in fact, the line has moved so low here ATS that the money line at -125 is now a top choice option here as of overnight hours heading into Thursday.

#274 ASA PLAY ON Georgia +100 over Notre Dame, THURSDAY at 4 PM ET – SUGAR BOWL @ New Orleans - We think the Irish are overvalued right now after winning 9 straight games ATS. They’ve been on quite a roll but let’s not forget their schedule was an easy one (59th SOS) while UGA’s was one of the toughest in college football (3rd SOS). Georgia played and beat 4 CFP teams during the regular season including topping Texas twice (along with Tennessee & Clemson). Notre Dame faced their first playoff team in round 1 taking down Indiana by 10 at home. While it was a solid 27-17 win, we’re not so sure how good it really was. First of all it was a home game and on top of that IU faced one of the easiest schedules of any Power 4 team and the one good team they faced during the regular season, OSU rolled them 38-15. The Irish offense, especially their running game, has been really good this season but this will be the most talented defense they’ve faced. UGA’s overall defensive numbers might not be as good as a few of ND’s opponents this season (Indiana & Army) but when strength of schedule is taken into consideration, they are the best unit ND has seen. On offense UGA will be without starting QB Beck and we’re not sure that’s a terrible thing (sort of kidding here). He did not have a great year with his lowest completion percentage and he threw more interceptions this season than he did in his first 3 years combined. Back up Stockton came in a played well in their SEC Championship win over Texas and brings a running threat to the position. Head coach Kirby Smart has had a full month to get a game plan ready with Stockton under center. We like this situation as the ND defense may not know what to expect. On top of that, the Irish defensive line is banged up right now and they will be without their All American DT Mills. UGA and Smart knows what it takes to win in this spot as they’ve been here many times. Smart has won 7 straight post-season games and he is 57-1 SU the last 58 games vs everyone not named Alabama. We think UGA gets this win and moves on.

#690 ASA PLAY ON Butler +2.5 over Villanova, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Huge home game here for Butler who has lost 5 straight games and really needs a win here with their next 2 games coming on the road. To put their 5 game losing streak into perspective, 4 of those losses came vs UConn, Marquette, Houston, and Wisconsin who currently have a combined record of 40-11. Their most recent game was a 4 point loss to UConn in a game that went down to the wire. The Bulldogs have faced an extremely difficult schedule to date (33rd SOS) and today’s opponent, Villanova, is rated lower than 7 teams Butler has already played. The Wildcats have played 2 true road games and lost both @ St Joes and @ Creighton. They’ve also played 2 neutral site games and lost those as well so Nova is 0-4 away from home this year. The Bulldogs should have 2 solid offensive advantages in this game. One from beyond the arc and the other at the FT line. Both teams shoot the 3 well (ranked 9th and 20th in 3 point FG%) but Villanova is poor at defending the arc ranking 317th (Butler ranks 70th at defending the 3 point line). The Dogs get to the line A LOT with 26% of their points coming from the stripe (7th best in the nation) while the Wildcats rarely get to the line with just 16% of their points coming from the FT line (312th). Butler has won 4 of their last 5 at home vs Villanova and we look for them to come out on top again Wednesday. Take the points.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Utah State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We went against Nevada on the road on Saturday and picked up a win with Wyoming as a 6 point dog. The Cowboys won the game by 3 points and that puts Nevada in a must win type spot after dropping to 0-2 in the Mountain West. After this game they play their next 2 on the road so this becomes a huge home game for the host. Nevada has actually lost 2 straight so this is a huge game for the Pack. They are catching Utah State in a terrible spot playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off back to back upset wins as underdogs on the road over St Mary’s and San Diego State. In their win on Saturday @ SDSU, the Aggies never led by more than 1 point and trailed for 95% of the game. They made a 3 pointer with 7 seconds left to win 67-66. The Aztecs shot just 38% and only 25% from deep and still led mainly the entire game. Reno is a very tough place to play with Nevada winning 35 of their last 40 home games and they’ve also won 5 of their last 6 at home vs MWC rival Utah State. In their most recent home game, Nevada was -8 vs a solid Colorado State team that isn’t a fully 5+ points worse than CSU on a neutral court which is what this line suggests. This spot screams to take the home team and at this low number, we’ll do just that.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Memphis wants to play fast and is the highest possession team in the NBA. Phoenix on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking 26th in pace of play. The current problem for the Grizzlies is they have 9 players on their injured list, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, three of their top six scorers. The lack of depth showed in the Grizzlies last game against the Thunder as they managed just 106 points on 38% shooting. The Suns have had their own scoring issues of late with four straight games of 110 or less points. The lack of scoring has led to 4 straight Unders for the Suns and 6 of the last seven. Not to mention, the Suns will have a tough time here against a Memphis defense that allows the 4th fewest points per possession in the NBA. In three meetings last season these two teams produced 236, 225 and 199 total points. We like a slower paced and lower scoring game here.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Boise State +11 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET – FIESTA BOWL @ Phoenix - Our power ratings have PSU favored just over a TD here so getting double digits is some solid value. Penn State rolled in their home game vs SMU but that game turned on it’s head early with the Nittany Lions scored on 2 pick 6’s early in the game to take a 14-0 lead. At that point in the game, PSU had 74 total yards and already led 14-0 due to the defensive TD’s. That changed the whole complexion of the game for SMU as they were fighting from 2 scores down the rest of the way. On top of that, we had a warm weather team in SMU who’s average temp in their games played this season (both home and away) was 72 degrees playing in brutal weather (windchill was in the teens). Now we get PSU away from home where they were great this season. They struggled away from Happy Valley barely getting by at Minnesota (won by 1), at Wisconsin (trailed at half), and needed OT to beat what turned out to be a pretty average USC team. If we subtract their game @ Purdue (one of the worst teams in the country), Penn State played 5 games away from Happy Valley this year and won by an average of 6 PPG. Much has been made of Boise’s lower strength of schedule but let’s not forget this team nearly beat Oregon (CFP #1 seed) on the road this season. They lost 37-34 but outgained the Ducks (remember this game was in Autzen Stadium) and OU scored on a kickoff return AND an 85-yard fumble return and still barely won. PSU also faced Oregon in the Big 10 Championship game and lost that game by 8 points. Boise has been lights out as an underdog with a 33-18 ATS record (65%) since 1999 and they’ll have the best offensive player on the field on Tuesday night with RB Jeanty. If they can have some success on the ground, which we think they will, the Broncos should stay in this the entire way. Too many points.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -14.5 over Michigan, Tuesday at 12 PM ET – RELIAQUEST BOWL in Tampa, FL - We think Bama will be much more motivated for this game after being left out of the CFP. The Tide have something to prove and they should have a big coaching edge with DeBoer, who coached in the National Championship Game last year with Washington, having extra time vs Michigan 1st year head coach Moore. Maybe a little extra incentive for DeBoer here as well after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Title game. Bama lost a few WR’s for this game but for the most part they are pretty much in tact with most of their starters ready to go. Michigan has lost 8 or 9 of their best players for this game either to the portal or the NFL Draft. In fact, 4 potential first round draft picks for the Wolverines will not play here including DL Graham and Grant and top DB Johnson. Not only that, offensively they will be missing both of their RB’s Mullings and Edwards who combined for 1,500 yards rushing this season and their leading receiver TE Loveland who had over 500 yards receiving (no other Michigan player had more than 300 yards receiving this season). Michigan’s “want to” has to come into question here as well after winning the National Championship last year and now play in the Reliaquest Bowl. They already won their most important game @ OSU to end the season so a flat performance here might be in order. Michigan wasn’t a very good team this season (YPP margin of +0.0 is pretty average) and now we can argue that 8 or 9 of their top 10 players on the team aren’t even playing in this game. The Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as they have been in previous years, but they are still a very good team with a +1.6 YPP margin this year vs a top 15 schedule. They also have a huge edge at QB with Milroe over Michigan’s Davis Warren (former walk on). Let’s roll with Bama to win by more than 2 TD’s.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia.

#883 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -4 over Cal Baptist, Monday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for UC Irvine. They are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 70-54 loss @ Duquesne, and they’ve had 10 days to stew about that setback and get ready for this one. UCI is 10-2 on the season and their only other loss was @ Oregon State. The Anteaters have won 2 straight Big West Titles and are favored to win their 3rd this season. They are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency and they are holding opponents FG percentage of 39.4% on the season. In their loss @ Duquesne, the Anteaters allowed the Dukes to hit 49% of their shots and 56% of their triples while allowing 1.17 points per possession, their worst mark of the season. It was just the 3rd time in 12 games this season UCI allowed an opponent to average more than 1.00 PPP. After that subpar performance and more than a week off to make adjustments, we expect UCI to be really focused on the defensive end of the court. They should have plenty of success vs a Cal Baptist team that ranks 255th making just 43.5% of their shots while hitting only 30% of their 3’s (297th). The Cal Baptist Lancers have played an easy slate this far (283rd SOS) yet they have a 7-6 record. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 and tonight they face a UCI team that ranks 69th nationally per KenPom. The Lancers just played on Saturday so a quick turnaround vs an angry, rested team. In their game on Saturday Cal Baptist struggled to a 79-73 home win vs a Jackson State team that is winless on the season (0-13 record). UC Irvine is absolutely the better team in this match up and they are in the better situation as well. We’re getting a cheap line because they are on the road. We’ll take it.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +3 over Missouri, Monday at 2:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL @ Nashville, TN - Iowa finished 8-4 on the season despite having injury concerns at QB on and off all season. Starting QB McNamara started the first 7 games of the season and then was injured. He could have come back but we were hearing that head coach Ferentz decided to go with Sullivan (former Northwestern starting QB) for the rest of the season. He played in 3 games and then he was injured. Iowa went with 3rd stringer Strasser down the stretch but Sullivan is now back and healthy and will start here. In the 2 games he started and played the entire game, Iowa won both and outscored Wisconsin & NW by a combined score of 82-24. Sullivan is a veteran who brings a dual threat to the position. Most of Iowa’s starters are in for this game, however they will be missing RB Johnson which is a big loss. However, Mizzou will be without their top offensive weapon WR Burden so those 2 offset each other. The Hawkeyes do have some quality back up RB’s that have done well this season and we expect them to win in the trenches here. Missouri’s defensive strength is vs the pass, however they have struggled at times stopping the run ranking 60th in YPC allowed. Iowa is in the top 25 in both rush offense and defense. These 2 played almost identical strength of schedules and Iowa had the better YPP margin (+0.6 to +0.1) and YPC rushing margin (+1.4 to +0.2). We know Iowa is excited to be here and will bring their “A” game after getting rolled 35-0 in last year’s bowl game. Missouri we’re not so sure. They were a top 10 team prior to the season and may not be overly thrilled to be in the Music City Bowl. We’ll take the dog here.

#413 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Falcons. They catch Washington off a huge rivalry win over Philadelphia which pushed the Commanders chances of making the playoffs to 94%. The Commanders have another division rival on deck vs Dallas. In their win over Philly last week, the Eagles lost starting QB Hurts early in the game which obviously made a huge difference. The game still came down to a TD in the final seconds for Washington to win by 3. They are on a 3 game winning streak, however their wins came vs Tennessee, @ New Orleans by 1 points, and vs Philly with their QB out. This is a massive game for Atlanta. A loss here drops them below a 40% chance to make the playoffs while a win pushes them close to 90%. The Falcons control their own destiny, win here and next week vs Carolina and they are in. Rookie QB Penix will be making his 2nd start for Atlanta and he was solid in last week’s 34-7 win over the Giants. We think Penix gives the Birds the best chance to win (over an injured and inefficient Cousins) and getting a full game under his belt is big. These 2 have played pretty much the same strength of schedules and their YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt margins are almost identical. We’re not sure Washington should be more than a FG favorite here so we’ll take the extra value on the Falcons in the better situation.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 225.8 total points per game. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will only be essentially +6-points more than average. We feel it’s going to be much higher than that for a few specific reasons, mainly because of the pace of play. Memphis is the fastest paced team in the league at 105.2 possessions per game. The Thunder at 8th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. The Grizzlies average the 3rd most fastbreak points per game, the Thunder rank 9th. Memphis is the highest scoring team in the NBA in terms of points in the paint, the Thunder are 12th. The Grizz are the 5th most efficient offense, the Thunder are 8th. Granted, both are exceptional defensively, but pace and great shooting will counter the great defenses. These two teams attempt the 10th and 12th most 3-pointers per game and rank 2nd and 3rd in FG attempts. Based on comparable opponents, the betting markets and tempo we expect a higher scoring game Sunday. *Yes, we know Ja Morant is not playing tonight.*

#680 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +1 over St Thomas, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Long travel for St Thomas (Minneapolis) and they are a bit overvalued right now having won 6 straight games. 4 of those 6 wins came vs teams that are ranked 285th or lower and their 1 solid road win this year @ Northern Colorado, the Tommies shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. They are 3-3 on the road with their other 2 wins coming vs teams ranked 285th and 322nd. Now they face a top 200 team in the road in UC Riverside. The Highlanders have played a very tough schedule thus far (47th ranked SOS / St Thomas SOS is 250th) yet they still have a solid 8-5 record. UCR is 5-0 at home and should have a little extra motivation here coming off a 66-53 loss @ UNLV a week ago. St Thomas gets very little inside production (301st in percentage of points inside the arc) and they don’t get to the line very often. Thus, they rely very heavily on make 3 point shots which can make life tough on the road especially facing a solid 3 point defense (UCR allows 32% from deep). The Tommie also have a huge Summit League game on deck vs North Dakota State, the best team in the conference, so that game is of more importance. Coming from Minneapolis, they may view this as a bit of a vacation on west coast with warm weather before tipping off conference play on Thursday. Plus being away from home over the holidays may make it extra tough to focus. We’ll take the home team here.

#424 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These 2 teams just met a few weeks ago and the Bucs were -6.5 on the road. Now laying only -8 at home which gives us some solid value. In the first meeting, TB won in OT but they outgained Carolina by nearly 100 yards and by +0.4 YPP. The 2 TB turnovers resulted directly in 6 points for Carolina. While the Panthers are obviously out of playoff contention, this is a gigantic game for Tampa. A loss drops them to less than 15% chance to make the post-season. The Panthers are off a huge home OT win over Arizona while Tampa is off a road loss @ Dallas which we think sets this up nicely for the Bucs. While Carolina has been playing better, they still haven’t found a way to pick up wins losing 4 of their last 5. They’ve also been playing at home for the most part with 4 of their last 5 being played in Charlotte. On the road this year, they are just 1-5 with their only win coming way back in September @ Las Vegas and 4 of their 5 losses away from home have come by at least 14 points. The Panthers were double digit dogs in each of their last 3 road games vs Washington, Philly, and Denver and they are getting too much respect here with TB laying only 8 points. The Cats have been outgained by an average of almost 100 YPG on the road and their YPP margin away from home is -1.1. Their average PPG margin on the road in -17 PPG. TB is the much better team (5th in YPP margin / Carolina 28th in YPP margin) and it’s a bigger game for the Bucs. We’ll call a double digit win for Tampa.

ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number. Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg. Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games. Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest. These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Elon -5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Elon has played the more difficult schedule to date (#185 SOS compared to #307 for Marshall), yet they still have the better record at 8-4 (Marshall is 7-6). Elon is also 4-0 at home this year while Marshall is 0-5 on the road. Dating back to last season Marshall has lost 12 straight road games and all but 2 of those have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread (as of Friday evening). The Phoenix have already beaten 3 teams this season ranked higher than Marshall including a solid road win @ Notre Dame. They should have a huge advantage as the FT line in this game as Elon scores over 21% of their points from the stripe (69th nationally) and the Herd fouls a lot with their opponents scoring 25% of their points from the stripe (12th worst nationally). On the other end, we don’t expect Marshall to get many freebies as the disciplined Elon defense fouls very little. On top of that, Marshall is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (28% which is 334th) which makes it very tough to win on the road. Their defense will struggle to keep them in this game as well as they allow over 50% shooting on the road and 81 PPG. Lay it with Elon on Saturday.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.