#292 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -20.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET – CFB PLAYOFF ROUND ONE - JMU stepping way up in competition here and making the long travel to the west coast (almost 3000 miles). The Dukes have played by far the easiest schedule of the 12 CFP teams ranking 105th in SOS. The best team they faced this season was Louisville (29th per SP+) and JMU lost that game by 14 points. To put that in perspective, Louisville would rank as the 8th best team in the Big 10. Oregon played the 17th most difficult schedule and their only loss was by vs #1 Indiana. Even with that tough schedule, Oregon’s average margin of victory was 24 PPG. They are top 10 nationally in total offense, total defense, YPP offense, YPP defense, scoring offense, and they rank 11th in scoring defense. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, Oregon had better YPG, YPP, and PPG differentials when compared to James Madison. The Dukes have great defensive numbers, especially vs the run, however they faced an average run offense rank of 54th this season. Oregon ranks 8th in rush offense. On offense JMU averages 37 PPG, however the average total defense rank of the teams they faced was 84th and they faced 5 defenses ranked outside the top 100. While James Madison had a great season the talent disparity in this game is immense. Oregon has 58 four and five star recruits on their team while JMU has 3. This is such a huge step up in competition compared to what the Dukes have played this season and it’s on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA NFL play on Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 5pm ET - We will grab the points with the Division home dog in this one and expect a much closer game than what is being suggested by the oddsmakers. Let’s not be fooled by the Eagles offensive outburst against the Raiders last week when they put up 31-points against a team that’s quit on the season. Philadelphia is still the same offense that averaged just 16ppg over their previous five games, topping 20 just once. Excluding the Raiders game, the Eagles averaged just 5.2YPP in their previous 5 games and have the 24th rated EPA since week 10. Washington has certainly underachieved this season but have dealt with injuries (QB Daniels) but we are betting they’ll be up for this division rival that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago in a blowout, 55-23. The Commanders didn’t quit last week in their road win over the Giants 29-21 and will play at another level for this week’s opponent. The Eagles are 13-17 ATS last 30 as a road chalk and the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Philly. Teams off shutout wins are typically a bet against which has us on the home dog here.

#295 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Oklahoma, Friday at 8 PM ET – CFB ROUND 1 Game - We like the Crimson Tide to get the road win in this one. We faded Bama in the SEC Championship and picked up a big win with Georgia rolling 28-7. We think the Tide bounce back with a very solid performance after that embarrassing loss. They’ve also been hearing for a few weeks how they don’t belong in the playoffs with a 10-3 record and you can bet this team will rally around that narrative. These 2 met in mid November @ Alabama and the Sooners pulled off the 23-21 win as a 6.5 point dog. That game was decided by turnovers no questions asked. The Tide had 3 giveaways and Oklahoma had 0. The Sooners scored their only 2 TD’s directly off Alabama turnovers with an 87-yard pick 6 and a 30 yard TD drive after a fumbled punt. Bama outgained the Sooners 406 to 212 in that loss. Neither team could run the ball in that game and we don’t expect anything to change here (Tide had 80 yards rushing and OU had 74). Both teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing and both defense are very good vs the run. Both defenses rank in the top 10 nationally in total D but Alabama has an edge offensive and especially at QB which could be the difference here with both teams probably struggling to run the ball. The Crimson Tide have solid edges in YPG passing, completion % and yards per pass attempt. In their first meeting this season, Bama QB Simpson threw for 328 yards and OU QB Mateer just 138. Bama gets some key offensive players back for this one as their starting TE (30 receptions this year), RB (leading rusher), and RG are set to return after missing games leading up to this one. If we get the same or similar stat results in this rematch (minus the big turnover differential), Alabama should win and move on.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET - If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7pm ET - The Knicks were clearly a little hungover from their Cup championship win in Vegas over the Spurs on Tuesday night as they barely escaped Indiana with a win. NY trailed by as many as 16-points in the game and were playing shorthanded with Hart and Towns both out. That means, Brunson, Bridges and Anunoby had to shoulder the load. The 76ers have been off since December 14th and will come into this game fresh, rested and ready to play. Philly is 4-2 SU in their last six games and are starting to figure out their rotations with Paul George and Joel Embiid logging more minutes. Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey and his 31.5ppg will be back in the lineup tonight after missing two games with an illness. New York swept the 76ers in the four meetings a year ago but all the wins were relatively close with one game decided by 5 points and another by 6-points in OT. The Knicks have struggled with playing without rest going 5-13 ATS in that scheduling situation their last 18 games. They’ve also lost those games by an average of -2.7ppg. Scheduling clearly favors the Sixers in this one. Grab the points.

#756 ASA PLAY ON Long Beach St -3.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 10 PM ET - LBSU is just 2-9 on the season but they are much better than their record. They’ve faced a tough schedule to date (103rd) and they’ve been really close to beating some solid teams. They’ve had 9 days off since losing in OT @ San Jose State. Prior to that they lost at home vs a very good UC San Diego team (top 100) by 6 and lost @ UC Santa Barbara in OT. Since their first 2 games of the season in early November, double digit losses @ San Diego St and @ Fresno St, they’ve only had 1 loss by more than 6 or in OT. Pepperdine has played the much easier schedule (279th SOS) and after losing 5 straight games, including 3 at home, they finally picked up a win @ Cal State Bakersfield on Saturday. Interesting line comparison in that game is that Pepperdine was a 2 point dog in that game @ Bakersfield, who is ranked 315th and now they are 3 point dogs vs a LBSU team that ranks almost 70 spots higher despite their record. Pepperdine’s wins this year came at home vs Life Pacific, Lincoln of California (both non D1 teams) and New Orleans (currently 3-8 record) and then their road win @ Bakersfield. The Beach has better numbers offensively (efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and while their defensive numbers aren’t great, they’ve faced a very tough set of offensive teams thus far (average efficiency 87th). Pepperdine has faced teams with an average offensive and defensive efficiency outside the top 250. Last year LBSU was a 6 point dog @ Pepperdine and won outright making it a 6-1 run vs the Waves. This line is tight and Pepperdine has won only 4 of their last 18 road games. Long Beach is desperate for a win and the Waves will actually be the lowest rated D1 team they’ve faced this season. We’ll lay it.

#301 ASA PLAY ON Missouri State +1.5 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET – XBOX Bowl @ Frisco, TX - These 2 teams have played nearly the same strength of schedule this season (108th and 114th) and Missouri State has the much better numbers. The Bears have a +7 YPG differential, +0.2 YPP differential, and a +1.1 yards per pass attempt differential. Arkansas State’s numbers in those key margins are -33 YPG, -1.0 YPP, and -1.4 yards per pass differential. One down side here is Missouri State lost their head coach, Ryan Beard, to Coastal Carolina and he will not coach this game but the remainder of the staff seems to be in place. The Bears are also thrilled to be in this bowl game as this is their first year in FBS and their first ever bowl game. They should be extra motivated to win this one after losing their last 2 games to drop to 7-5 for the season. In those final 2 games the Bears played @ Kennesaw State (CUSA Champions) and lost by 7 but put up 535 total yards, outgained KSU but had 2 turnovers (0 for Kennesaw). KSU scored a TD with 27 seconds left to get that win. After that tough loss vs the best in the conference, Mizzou State threw up a dud on their home finale losing to La Tech. That gave them some motivation heading into this game. Arkansas State is just lucky to be here. They had to win 5 of their last 7 games just to get to 6-6 and qualify for a bowl. The Red Wolves won 3 of their last 5 games by a single point so they are fortunate to be here. Arkansas State beat Bowling Green in their bowl game last year despite getting outgained by 120 yards. They may not be as motivated to be here and they are overvalued right now in our opinion. We like Missouri State to win this one.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1 -115 vs. LA Rams, 8:15pm ET - It’s tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially when the margin between these two teams is so fine. We grade the Rams as the best team in the NFL but only so slightly over the Seahawks. This scenario screams Seattle. Playing with revenge, at home off a horrible showing and playing for a share of the division lead. In the first meeting between these two teams the Rams won 21-19 but Seattle missed a game winning FG at the end of regulation and Hawks QB Darnold threw 4 INT’s. Seattle outgained the Rams 414 to 249 in total yards and 5.2YPP to 4.9YPP. Seattle is the much healthier team right now as the Rams will likely be without TD machine WR Adams who injured his hamstring on Sunday in their win over the Lions. Statistically there isn’t much that separates these two teams, so it comes down to situational advantages and line value on the home team. Back Seattle in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - Wow! If you are a ‘value’ bettor, you have come to the right place on Thursday night. The Raptors and Bucks have already met twice this season and the oddsmakers set O/U’s of 235.5 and 237.5 respectively and now we get a number of 220. Much of that has to do with the Raptors offense that has scored 113 or less in four games in a row and a Bucks team that just scored 82 against the Nets. The rest factor in tonight’s game suggests a higher scoring game as teams with long breaks tend to score more points. The Raptors are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% and should see the ball go in against a Bucks defense that is 17th in FG% defense allowing 47.3%. Conversely, the Bucks shoot at the 4th best rate in the league at 49.1%, the Raptors are closer to average in FG% allowed defense at 46.4%. Milwaukee is the #1 rated 3PT% shooting team in the league; the Raptors are 13th so we don’t need as many possessions in this game to get OVER this number. Remember, the league average in the NBA this season is 232.2ppg so it’s not like we are asking these two teams to score a ridiculously high point total. 9 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than tonight’s O/U.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10pm ET - The Thunder look to rebound after their upset loss in Cup play to the Spurs and we expect an offensive explosion in this one. OKC is putting up an average of 123.1ppg on the season, 2nd most in the NBA. They play at a moderate pace (14th) but are highly efficient, ranking 4th in oEFF. Not to mention they will be facing a Clippers defense that is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.197-points per possession. The Clippers are struggling this season but still average 111.3ppg on 47% shooting. OKC should knock down plenty of 3’s in this game with the 6th best 3PT% offense facing the 30th ranked Clipper 3PT% defense. Even without James Harden tonight the Clippers should get to 100+ points and we are confident the Thunder will get to 120+. We are on the OVER in this one.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Middle Tennessee State -4.5 over Kennesaw St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - We like this spot for MTSU playing their 3rd straight home game but off a bad loss here vs a very good Belmont team (10-1 record) on December 7th. The Blue Raiders have now had 10 days off to let that loss fester and get ready for this one. The game prior to that loss they won here by 15 points vs a very solid UAB team. Middle Tennessee is 5-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come vs top 80 teams. They’ve played one of the more difficult schedules to date (23rd SOS) and still have a winning record. They have 2 solid wins over Murray State and UAB (both top 115 teams). Kennesaw State has an 8-2 record but they’ve faced only 1 top 100 team (19 point loss at home vs USF) and only 1 top 200 team (2 point OT win vs Florida Gulf Coast – 174th ranked team). The Owls strength of schedule is on the opposite end of the spectrum when compared to MTSU (339th SOS). Their other loss was by 8 points on a neutral court vs Oral Roberts who is ranked 295th per KenPom. In the month of December, KSU has faced Southern Wesleyan (non D1), Georgia State (332nd) and Jackson State (327th) all at home. Now they travel for the first time since November and take big step up in competition as MTSU will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season. The Owls like to play up tempo (6th nationally in tempo) and the Blue Raiders will slow this one down (237th in tempo) and take them out of their comfort zone. KSU has only played one slow paced team this season and need an 11 point 2nd half comeback to beat Rice in OT (Rice is ranked 211th). They also send teams to the FT line at the highest rate in the country so we should have a solid advantage at the stripe. MTSU is 3-1 at home this season and they’ve won 20 of their last 25 games here. Let’s lay this small number.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -2.5 over Creighton, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays simply aren’t playing well right now losing 4 of their last 6 games including getting knocked off by Kansas State at home on Saturday. They are just 5-5 on the season and have only 1 win vs a top 100 team. That was vs Oregon on a neutral court when the Ducks played without their best player (Nate Bittle) and lost another key player (Devon Pryor) 6 minutes into the game. The Jays have played 5 games away from home this season (road or neutral) and have just 1 win vs Oregon (In Las Vegas). Unlike Creighton, Xavier is playing very well right now ripping off 5 straight wins since losing by 1 point vs a very good Georgia team back on November 21st. This will be their 5th straight home game and they should be well rested as they’ve only played 3 games so far this month. The Musketeers don’t beat themselves as they almost never turn the ball over. They rank #1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage and that won’t change here vs a Creighton team that ranks 339th in defensive turnover percentage. Both teams rely quite heavily on the 3 point shot but Xavier simply does it better on both ends of the court with a better offensive and defensive 3 point FG% numbers. They rank inside the top 85 in both offensive and defensive 3 point FG% while the Blue Jays rank outside the top 200 in both. Away from home it gets worse for Creighton shooting just 26% from deep. XU has won 7 of the last 10 at home vs Creighton and we like them to get it done in this one as well.

FIFA Intercontinental Cup Final: #235002 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain Money Line (-150) over Flamengo, Wednesday at Noon ET at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium (Al Rayyan Stadium) in Qatar - There is a class difference between these clubs and we are certain that PSG is going to take this game seriously. They lost to Chelsea 3-0 in the Club World Cup final over the summer and will want to make amends for that one here in this Intercontinental competition. Flamengo is a solid club from Brazil but PSG is one of the top clubs in Europe and should prove worth the price here. Paris Saint-Germain has won 5 of their last 6 in French Ligue 1 action and won those 5 games by a combined score of 15 to 4. We are big on Paris Saint-Germain on the money line in this one. 

#200 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Troy, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Veteran’s Bowl @ Montgomery, AL - JSU should have a huge rushing advantage here and we always like that situation when we’re considering an underdog. The Gamecocks rank 5th in the nation averaging 258 YPG on the ground on 5.5 YPC. They have not one, but two, 1,000 yard RB’s this season. They are facing a Troy defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both YPG rushing and YPC. JSU’s YPC margin is +1.4 as they average 5.5 YPC and allow just 4.1. Now to the other side of the ball. Troy can’t run the ball. They rank 130th (out of 136) averaging only 98 YPG on the ground on a paltry 2.8 YPC (132nd). Their YPC margin is -1.9 as they average 2.8 YPC and allow 4.7. They only topped 100 yards rushing 4 times in their 12 games vs FBS opponents. On top of that, they just lost their top RB Tae Meadows who was their only back with more than 320 yards rushing this season. The Jacksonville St defense is decent vs the run allowing 148 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Troy may also be without their starting QB Crowder who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game vs JMU. Troy was a bit of a farce this year in our opinion. They were outgained in Sun Belt play (-70 YPG) and actually lost the yardage battle in 7 of their final 8 games yet still ended up with an 8-5 record. They did play a tougher schedule than JSU but the stat splits are quite drastic with JSU having a +0.3 YPP margin while Troy was -1.0 YPP. We’ll take the dog in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234.5 San Antonio Spurs vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Cup Finals are here! Who really cares other than us degenerate gamblers. Kidding aside, this should be a very entertaining NBA game with the up-and-coming Spurs and the veteran Knicks, in what should be a very competitive game. We are going to grab the value and bet UNDER. This line opened significantly lower than where it currently stands and our model agrees with what Vegas set originally and projects 227 total points being scored. These two teams are top 14 in defensive efficiency ratings overall and have some very good metrics within those overall numbers. The Knicks allow the 4th fewest points in the paint, the Spurs the 7th lowest. San Antonio allows the 2nd fewest fast break points per game, the Knicks 12th fewest. The Spurs give up the 3rd fewest 2nd chance points per game, New York gives up the 8th fewest. We make that point because those numbers suggest nothing will be easy or cheap in this one. The Spurs defense was outstanding against the Thunder, holding the best offense in the NBA to 109 total points. NY is coming off a higher scoring game against the Magic but shot incredibly well at 61% (average 48% on the season). In two meetings between these two teams last season they produced 231 and 224 total points. With the Cup on the line tonight we expect both teams to ramp up their defensive intensity and limit scoring opportunities. Bet the UNDER.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee +1.5 over Louisville, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with Louisville as a 1.5 point road favorite and we’d be shocked if this didn’t flip to Tennessee favored. The Vols are in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses vs Kansas, Syracuse, and Illinois. All of those games were on the road or neutral sites and they’ve had 10 full days off to regroup and get ready for this important home. They are 5-0 this season and they are an impressive 65-5 SU at home since the start of the 2021 season. Prior to this 3 game losing streak the Vols were 7-0 including a win over National Runner Up Houston. They face the Louisville Cardinals who are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming @ Arkansas. That was the Cards only true road game of the season and Tennessee is catching them off back to back impressive wins over Indiana and Memphis. Buy low, sell high spot in this game. Louisville relies heavily on the scoring from the arc with the highest 3 point attempt percentage in the country. That can go awry on the road at times as it did in their loss @ Arkansas where they took 37 triples and made only 8 (21%). Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the nation as Tennessee ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed opponents to make only 29% of their triples. Tennessee should get extra opportunities on the offensive end as they corral 45% of their missed shots which ranks them #1 in the country in offensive rebounding. As we stated above, we don’t expect Tennessee to end up as a dog in this game but if this line sticks (currently +1.5) it will be the first time they’ve been a home underdog since February 8th, 2020 vs Kentucky. The Vols have not lost 4 games in a row since the 2015/16 season and we don’t expect it to happen here.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +1 over Miami OH, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami OH steps into this game with a perfect 10-0 record yet in some books they are an underdog vs a Wright State team that is 5-6 so far this year. Hmmm? The Redhawks sit undefeated because they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (364th SOS out of 365 teams!). They have yet to face a single team ranked inside KenPom’s top 200 and 6 of their 10 opponents are ranked outside the top 300 or not a D1 team. Of the 8 Division 1 teams they’ve faced, not one has more than 4 wins this season and their combined record is 22-70! This Wright State team will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season (ranked 144th). This is also the 3rd straight road game in the span of 7 days. Their last 2 games, @ UNC Asheville (ranked 237th) and @ Eastern Kentucky (ranked 270th), they won by 3 in OT and by 10. Wright State has played the much more difficult schedule (143rd SOS) and they’ve played only 4 home games and 7 on the road. They are 3-1 in their home games this season and they’ve faced 6 teams ranked 165th or higher. All but 1 of their 6 losses have been by 10 points or less and half of their losses (3) have come by 2 points or less or in OT. The Raiders are very close to having a much better record. Wright State has dominated this series winning 6 in a row, all since the start of the 2019 season. The Raiders have covered 4 of their last 5 (only non-cover @ Butler) and they are happy to be back home and in need of a win. This team is undervalued and we like them to win and cover this one on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10:40pm ET - The Grizzlies went through a stretch of playing really well with wins in 7 of nine games. Then they lost Zach Edey to injury and got Ja Morant back from injury. They proceeded to lose at home to the lowly Jazz most recently after the lineup change. Without Edey’s rim protection and Morant’s horrible shooting (7/20) the Grizzlies are a much worse team. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Clippers who have lost 11 of their last fourteen games. A closer look though and you see that 12 of those 14 were on the road and 9 of those came against teams with winning records. Also included in that stretch of games is a pair of losses to this Grizzlies team, which had Edey in the lineup and were without the distraction of Morant in both. The Clippers were recently a -2-point favorite at Memphis and were laying -6.5 at home in late November. Los Angelese looked much better in their two most recent losses to the Timberwolves and Rockets, two of the best teams in the West, and should get a convincing home win in this one after 3 days rest. The Clippers have an average +/- of +5.5ppg when playing on 2-3 days rest dating back to the start of last season and are also 22-16-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2024. We like the Clippers by 8+.

#484 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Warm weather team Miami will struggle on Monday night with the temps in Pittsburgh around 15 degrees at kick with a windchill in the single digits. Miami QB Tagovailoa has 1 career win when the temperature is below 45 degrees. That win was last week vs the hopeless NY Jets and the temp at kickoff for that game was 42 degrees a far cry from what it will be like in Pittsburgh Monday night. The Fins are getting some praise for their turnaround winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the season 1-6. However, let’s keep in mind who they’ve beaten during this stretch. 4 of their 5 wins during this streak were vs Jets, Saints, Commanders, and Falcons. Those 4 teams have a combined record of 16-40. The one impressive win for the Dolphins over the last few months was at home vs the Bills which was a very poor spot for Buffalo coming off their big win over KC the week before. The Bills outgained Miami in that loss but had 3 turnovers. This is a huge home game for the Steelers who have a half game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North. Pitt is coming off a 27-22 win @ Baltimore last weekend despite running 26 fewer offensive snaps. They outgained the Ravens 6.2 to 5.5 on a YPP basis. Miami is 2-4 on the road this season with wins over the Jets & Falcons. Pittsburgh is 4-3 at home this year with all 3 losses coming vs high level opponents (Seattle, Green Bay, and Buffalo). They’ve handled all of their lower level opponents at home and also have a win here vs Indy when the Colts were at full strength. These 2 teams have the same YPP margin but the Steelers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (12th SOS to 29th for Miami). Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is nearly perfect on Monday nights with an 11-1 SU record and we like that to get the win and cover on this COLD night in the Steel City.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 at Brooklyn Nets, 6pm ET - The Bucks are coming off their most complete game of the season, a win over the Celtics, and we like that momentum to carry over here. Brooklyn has been playing better of late but they are still one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets are 3-2 SU their last five but the wins have come against the Pelicans, Bulls and Hornets who have a combined 21-54 record. Milwaukee beat the Nets at home in late November 116-99 and were minus -11.5 points in that game. That means they should be at least -3.5-points here. The Bucks 4th best team FG% should feast on a Nets D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowed. Lay it with the Bucks.

#480 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -11.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games and ALL 5 of those wins have come by double-digits. San Francisco is in a favorable scheduling situation coming off a bye and catching the Titans coming off their 2nd win of the season, which was on the road against Cleveland. The Browns were +9 FD’s, had 412 total yards to the Titans 292YDS, averaged 6.6YPP compared to Tennessee’s 4.6YPP. Coincidentally, the Niners played the Browns in Cleveland the week before their bye and beat the Browns 26-8. The 49ers suffered several key injuries to their offense early on but are now getting healthy and they’ve been much better at home than on the road this season. The defense for the 49ers is 11th in DVOA metrics and the last two similar offenses they’ve faced (Browns, Panthers) they held to single digits. Tennessee is the worst overall defense in terms of efficiency and have the 3rd worst offensive DVOA rating in the NFL. Looking at comparative lines, the Titans were +14.5 at Indianapolis, +10 at home against the Chargers, +13 at home against the Seahawks which tells us this line is not a premium price. Lay it with the 49ers in a blowout.

#763 ASA PLAY ON Charlotte +5.5 over College of Charleston, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Our power ratings have Charleston as a 2 point favorite in this game so we have some value on Charlotte. Both teams are 4-6 and have played a very similar strength of schedule. Charlotte has been competitive in all but 1 of their losses and that was vs Utah State, a top 40 team per KenPom. They also caught Utah State with some extra motivation after losing @ USF, which was the Aggies first and only loss of the season thus far. That’s the 49ers only loss by more than 10 points. 5 of their 6 losses have come vs teams ranked 120 or higher and 4 of those losses vs top competition have come by 5, 7, 8, and 10 points. Charleston, on the other hand, has been rolled by double digits in 4 of their 6 losses. The Cougars have also had some serious free throw “luck” with their opponents making only 62% on the year which is the lowest opponent FT% in the country yet they still have 6 losses. Charlotte is the better shooting team both overall and from 3 point land. The 49ers should have a big edge from beyond the arc as Charleston makes only 26% of their 3’s (358th) and the Cougars ranks 299th defending the arc. Charlotte is also the better rebounding team both on the offensive and defensive boards. These 2 met last season and C of C pulled off a 3 point win. Charleston currently ranks 30 spots lower than last year’s team while Charlotte currently ranks 55 spots higher than last year. Expect another close game here and we’ll take the points.

#463 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -1 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a rematch from earlier in the season where the Pats upset Buffalo on the road 23-20 as 8 point underdogs. That game basically came down to turnovers as the yardage was dead even (both put up 6 YPP) but the Bills had 3 giveaways (1 for New England). 2 of the Bills turnovers came inside Patriot territory and the other was at their only 7 yard line which led to points for New England. This falls into a solid system that has cashed at almost 70% of the last 10 years. That’s simply taking a division road favorite in the 2nd meeting of the season if they lost the first meeting outright as a home favorite. That spot is 22-10 ATS. If the Pats win this game they clinch the AFC East. If Buffalo wins, they move to within 1 game of the Patriots and the 2 teams will have then split their season meetings leading to a free for all down the stretch. While the Pats are 11-2, we’re still not quite sure how good this team really is. They’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. Besides Buffalo, they’ve faced only 3 teams that are currently at .500 or above and all of those teams are 7-6 (Tampa, Carolina, and Pittsburgh). The combined record of the teams they’ve faced this season is 69-103! Both of their losses have come at home vs the Raiders and Steelers. Despite facing the much easier schedule, New England’s YPG and YPP margins are almost identical to Buffalo. The Bills have been in this spot fighting for a division title and have won the AFC East 5 straight years and they have won 27 of their last 34 division games. New England is a young team that hasn’t been in this spot. We simply need Buffalo to win this game and we think they get it done on Sunday.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Teams coming of shutout losses have been money in the bank the following week. It’s happened 4 times this season and they teams that were shutout were 4-0 ATS the next week. Long term, over the last 10+ seasons, this situation has cashed at 72%. The Commanders were blanked @ Minnesota last week 31-0 as 2 point favorites! Now they go from being favored @ Minnesota to getting nearly a FG @ NYG simply based on their shutout loss. This is an unfamiliar role for the Giants as they are 2-11 and have not been favored in a single game this season. Not only is NY not used to the favorite role, they have been terrible when laying points. They were a favorite just once last season and lost that game outright and going back to the start of the 2017 season they are 7-14 ATS as a chalk. Washington has won 3 straight in this series and topped NYG 21-6 in their first meeting this year. The Commanders controlled the trenches putting up 220 yards rushing to just 74 for the Giants. We don’t see anything changing here as Washington runs the ball well (4th in the NFL in rushing YPG) while the Giants are the worst rush D in the league 155 YPG on a whopping 5.8 YPC. Veteran QB Mariota will be back under center for Washington with Jayden Daniels getting injured (again) last week. No problem as Mariota has already started 5 games this year for the Commanders. Ugly game here with 2 teams who have a combined record of 5-21 but lets plug our nose and take the dog.

#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The forecast in KC calls for temps in the teens with windchills possibly in the single digits at game time. Not ideal for scoring to say the least. LA QB Herbert is dealing with a broken hand and last week’s game plan vs Philadelphia was very conservative with 38 runs and just 26 pass attempts. We expect to see the same type of offense in this game. The Chargers averaged just 3.9 YPP vs the Eagles and that included a 60 yard pass play. Take that out and LA was closer to 3.0 YPP. KC played host to Houston and they struggled as well offensively averaging only 4.3 YPP while putting up only 10 points. The Chiefs defense was stellar holding Houston to 4.1 YPP and in the 2nd half the Texans had 8 offensive possessions and 5 of those were 3 and outs. KC has now gone Under the total in 5 straight games and they are 9-4 to the Under this season. We expect both defensive lines to control this game as the offensive lines are in flux. The Chargers Oline is just bad with the 30th impact grade and KC has injuries up front with their staring RT, RG, and LT all out. LA is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and the Chiefs rank middle of the pack so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in PPG allowed. LA has allowed 1 team to top 20 points in their last 6 games and KC’s D has been lights out at home allowing just 14.9 PPG this season. Let’s grab the Under in this one.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -11 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 9pm ET - This is the NBA Cup’s semi finals and decides who will represent the West in the Cup Finals. If you haven’t been paying attention the Thunder are on a whole different planet right now compared to the rest of the NBA. OKC is 24-1 SU on the season and the one game they lost they were up 22 before a late game collapse. There are many futures bets available on this team setting all kinds of records including most wins ever in a season. The Thunder have won 16 straight games by an average of 21ppg. For the season the Thunder are winning games by an average of +17.5ppg, they have an average road differential of +15.7ppg. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Thunder are 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The Spurs are having a nice season and have great young players, but this team is not quite ready to challenge the Thunder who are on a mission after losing in the Cup finals a year ago to Milwaukee. San Antonio will get Wemby back for today’s game, but they will disrupt their flow and the chemistry they’ve built in their current 9-3 SU run without him. In OKC’s current winning streak, only one has not come by double-digits. Lay it with the Thunder.

#708 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -4 over West Virginia, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This game is being played at a neutral court in Cleveland but it will be a “home game” for OSU when it comes to fan support. The Buckeyes should be highly motivated for this one after losing at home to Illinois earlier this week. It was an 88-80 loss to the Illini who rank 9th in the country per KenPom. OSU kept the game close despite making 14 fewer FT’s with Illinois making 29 of 32 from the stripe (90%) and 11 of 27 from beyond the arc (41%). We don’t expect WVU to be anywhere near those numbers in this game as they shoot just 67% from the FT line and 34% from 3. Despite the Illini offensive showing on Tuesday, the Buckeyes still rank in the top 30 defending the arc allowing just 28% from deep. On the offensive end, Ohio State is one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 8th in the country in eFG%, 4th in FG% hitting 52% of their shots, and 32nd in offensive efficiency. Compare that to WVU who ranks 129th in eFG%, 241st in FG%, and 113th in offensive efficiency. OSU should win the 3 point battle here facing a West Virginia D that ranks 278th defending the arc. They should also have an advantage from the charity stripe as the Buckeyes get there more often and shoot 77% as a team compared to 67% for West Virginia. The Mountaineers have played a really easy schedule to date (354th SOS out of 365 teams) and they’ve lost to all 3 top 100 teams they’ve faced. They’ve left the state of West Virginia just twice for neutral site games and lost both to Xavier and Clemson. The Buckeyes will be the 2nd most difficult team WVU has faced this year (28th per KenPom) with only Clemson ranking higher (by 2 spots – 26th). The Neers have already faced SIX teams ranked outside the top 300 which is more than half of their games. Ohio State is the better team and we should get an extra motivated team off a loss. Let’s lay it.

#453/454 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Army vs Navy, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Low total as per usual in these match ups but we still like the Under. The Under in the Army vs Navy game has cashed 17 of the last 19 years and they’ve reached 40 points only twice in the last 12 years. One of those games was last season with Navy winning 31-13 for 44 total points. However, the 2 teams combined for only 563 total yards which would normally equate to around 37 total points based on the CFB average yards per point numbers. They only rank 108 total plays which isn’t surprising as both run the ball almost exclusively and they both play at a very slow pace. They rank 1st and 4th in rush attempts per game and both are in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game. They rank 134th and 132nd in tempo this season so we expect another low possession game. Defending the option attack can be tough for many teams that don’t see it throughout the year but these teams practice against it every day, thus they defend it well. That’s a main reason we’ve seen such low scoring games in this series and in all military academy game series. In fact, if we include games between Army, Navy, and Air Force, the Unders have gone 54-16-4! Another grinder between these 2 arch rivals on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 240.5 Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - We will get plenty of possessions in this game for what should be a higher scoring affair. The Jazz play at the 5th fastest rate in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 10th. Memphis should see an increase in their pace of play with the return of PG Ja Morant who will look to push tempo. The Grizzlies are average in terms of FG% defense allowing 47% on the season, 21st in 3PT% defense at 36.9%. The Jazz are worse defensively allowing 49% shooting by opponents overall and 37.5% from Deep (24th). Last season in all 4 games one of these two teams scored 122 or more points and in two of the four meetings we had 243 and 250 total points. The added rest is going to lead to a higher scoring game here as the Jazz are 4-0 OVER their last four when playing with 4+ days rest, the Grizzlies are 3-1 in that same situation. Bet OVER.

#306610 ASA PLAY ON Queens NC -15.5 over South Carolina State, Friday at 7 PM ET - South Carolina State is 0-10 on the season and this will be their 6th straight road game in the last 20 days. On the season they’ve played 9 road games and only 1 home game so the travel has to be taking it’s toll. Looking at their scores would verify that. Of their 10 losses, only 1 has come by less than 12 points and their average score on the season is 63-88. Queens is 4-4 on the year with 4 home wins and 4 road losses. They have a huge advantage offensively in this match up. Queens is a solid shooting team who ranks in the top 70 nationally in FG% and 3 point FG% while averaging 84 PPG. SCSU, on the other hand, is the 3rd worst shooting team in the country making only 36% of their shots while averaging only 63 PPG. They also rank 358th in offensive efficiency averaging 0.94 points per possession while Queens averages 1.13 PPG (84th in the country). On top of that, SCSU is a terrible defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 49% (350th) and put up 88 PPG (361st). We just don’t think South Carolina State can keep up here. In their 4 home games, Queens is averaging 94 PPG and this will be the lowest rated defense they’ve faced. This will be the 4th defense they’ve faced ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and they put up 107, 101, and 81 points in the first 3. SCSU has been held to 66 points or less in 7 of their 10 games. We don’t think South Carolina State can keep up here. We’ll lay it.

ASA play on Atlanta Falcons +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15pm ET - The Falcons lost badly last week to Seattle, but the Seahawks are literally one of the 3 best teams in the NFL and the Bucs are not. Prior to last week’s blowout loss the Falcons had played in 4 of five games decided by 6-points or less and the other game they beat the Saints 24-10. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss to the same Saints team and are on a current 1-4 SU streak themselves but somehow the Bucs are still viewed as a ‘good’ team. How can a team be favored when they own a negative yards per play differential on the season and a negative scoring differential per game of -2.0ppg. Atlanta has a negative average margin of victory of -4.7ppg on the season but their road differential p/game is only -2.9ppg. The Bucs have failed to cover 5 straight games and are averaging just 4.4YPP on the past 7 games. Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers is 7-20 ATS as a home favorite in his last 27. The last 5 meetings have been tight between these two teams and we expect another field goal game in this one.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +9 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:10pm ET - Boston is playing extremely well right now and the Bucks are not, but this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with Milwaukee. In Boston’s last two road games they were -4.5 a Toronto and -11 at Washington. Milwaukee was just a 1-point home favorite over the Sixers and +4.5 versus Detroit. Our ratings have the Celtics -6.5 on this court. The Bucks need this break and should be better coming out of it with more practice time with Porter Jr in the lineup. Porter Jr is averaging just under 22ppg and 6 assists since his return from injury and has become the Bucks go-to with Giannis out. The time came at a bad time for Boston who has won 5 straight and 10 of their last 12 games. We like the Bucks #1 rated 3PT% shooting going up against a Celtics 3PT% defense that ranks 21st in the league allowing nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Everyone knows the C’s live and die from the 3-point line but the Bucks 3PT% defense is 13th best in the NBA and can contest Boston’s shooters on the perimeter. Milwaukee is 3-1 ATS their last 4 when playing on 4 days rest. Boston 6-13 ATS their last 19 when playing with 2-3 days rest.

#306598 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley -1.5 over UT Arlington, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV is rated 5 spots ahead of UT Arlington per KenPom despite a 3-5 record compared to Arlington’s 6-3 record. That’s because the Vaqueros have played the much tougher schedule with the 25th most difficult slate thus far to 209th or UT Arlington. All of UTRGV’s losses have come on the road and 3 were vs top 50 teams Illinois (9th), Baylor (31st), and Boise State (47th). They gave Illinois a good run losing by 14 as a 33 point dog and did the same @ Baylor losing by 15 as a 25 point dog. They played just their 3rd home game of the season on Sunday and picked up a 13 point win over Austin Peay who has a very similar ranking to UT Arlington. Now they get to play back to back home games after 6 of their first 7 games were on the road. They are 3-0 at home this season. UTA is 2-3 on the road this season (road/neutral) after going just 3-11 in true road games last season. Their 2 wins coming @ Weber State by 1 and @ Evansville by 8, both ranked outside the top 200. The Mavericks are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting only 28% while making only 5 triples per game (both outside the top 340). They’ll be at a huge disadvantage here as UTRGV hits 39% from deep (top 25) while making almost 10 per game. The host should also have a solid advantage in turnover margin as UTA is one of the worst in the country, coughing it up at a 23% rate (357th). Tough to win on the road when you can’t make 3’s and you turn the ball over a lot. We’ll lay this small number with Texas Rio Grande Valley.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska +2.5 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. The Huskers are 9-0 on the season and have already beaten 4 top 100 opponents (Oklahoma, Creighton, New Mexico, and Kansas State). They have some serious momentum heading into this game after crushing a very good Creighton team here on Sunday 71-50. The Huskers have one of the best home court advantages in the Big 10. They are 6-0 at home this year and 34-6 here since the start of the 2023 season. The Badgers are 7-2 with their losses coming vs BYU and TCU, both by double digits. They’ve played 3 neutral site games this season (1-2 record) but this will be their first true road game. Wisconsin relies heavily in the 3 point shot with 33 attempts per game (21st in the country) but they’ve struggled to shoot in their games away from home (all neutral sites) making only 28 of 97 (28.8%) triples. The Huskers have defended very well this season ranking in the top 20 allowing opponents to shoot just 38% overall and 30% from deep (top 90). They play D without fouling with opponents only attempting 13 FT’s per game (8th in the country) and that will be key here as Wisconsin makes 80% of their FT’s. Keep UW off the line and Nebraska wins this game. Extra motivation for Nebraska as they were destroyed in their only meeting last year in Madison but they have topped Wisconsin each of the last 2 games here at home, both as an underdog. We like the Husker to win this one at home.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET - These same two teams met on this court in late November and produced 242 total points. The Thunder shot 48% for the game, the Suns hit 46% both right around each teams season average. The game was played at a slightly faster rate than an average NBA game with 179 total field goal attempts. OKC is 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.216-points per possession, the Suns are 11th at 1.168PPP. The Thunder in particular have been insanely good on the offensive end of the court with a 1.254PPP average in their last 5 games. Phoenix isn’t a great overall shooting team but they are very good from deep. The Suns are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. If the Thunder have a weakness defensively it’s their 3PT% D as they rank 21st in the NBA allowing 36.9%. OKC is shooting 49.7% and should convert plenty of open looks against a Suns defense that is 20th in opponents FG% allowed. The last 3 meetings between these two teams has been high scoring with all 3 OVERS cashing. Expect the same in this one.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 840pm ET - This is a value bet as these two teams recently met in New York and the line on that game was Knicks -8.5. That would mean this game should have them as a 1-point favorite or a pick’em. The Raptors have lost 3 straight making them desperate and dangerous while the Knicks have won 3 in a row and may be a little ‘fat’. The Raptors just lost to the Celtics who are playing extremely well right now. In NY’s last 3 wins, two came against Utah and Charlotte and the one quality win was against the Magic who were in a bad scheduling situation and off an emotional win over the Heat. New York has the advantage offensively, the Raptors have it defensively. The Knicks are 3-6 SU on the road this season and 17-19 ATS their last 36 as a road favorite with an average plus/minus of +3.8ppg. The Raptors are 8-5 SU at home this season 18-14-1 ATS their last 33 as a home pooch. Grab the points with Toronto at home.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Providence -16.5 over Brown, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Rough scheduling spot for Brown as they are playing their 4th game in 8 days. They’ve struggled to say the least with a 5-6 record despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the country this year (339th SOS). Providence will be, by far, the best team they’ve faced and the only team ranked in the top 100 they’ve played this season. The Bears wins have all come vs teams ranked 296th or lower and they’ve already lost to 3 teams ranked outside the top 200 (per KenPom). Providence has 4 losses but they’ve all been to teams ranked 65th or higher and all either road or neutral games. That includes 2 top 25 teams Wisconsin and Florida. At home the Friars are 5-0 winning by an average of +23 PPG. For comparison’s sake, both of these teams have played Rhode Island within the last week with Providence beating the Rams by 21 and Brown losing by 10. The Friars are the much better shooting team (37th eFG% compared to 237th for Brown) and they score an average of 90 PPG (95 PPG at home). Brown averages only 64 PPG in their 5 road games this year and we don’t think they can keep up here. Lay it with Providence.

#145/146 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs LA Chargers at 8:15 PM ET - We look for both teams to lean on their running game in this one which should shorten this game. They are already 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (27th and 31st in seconds per play) so the possessions will be limited. The Eagles run the ball on almost 47% of snaps which is 7th in the NFL. LAC QB Herbert had surgery this week on a broken hand so they will most likely be careful with him. Starting RB Hampton also returns for LA (hasn’t played since early October) which could lend itself to more attempts in the running game. On top of that, Philly was shredded on the ground last week vs Chicago (allowed almost 300 yards rushing) and they rank 24th vs the run this season. We expect the Eagle D to come in with a chip on their shoulder here as well after that performance vs Chicago. They have held 6 straight opponents to 24 points or less that that includes games vs Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, and Detroit, all top 10 scoring offenses. The LA defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in total D and they don’t give up big plays allowing just 2.4 plays of 20+ yards per game (best in the NFL). They’ve allowed 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and during that stretch they lead the NFL in defensive 3rd down conversion rate (allowing just 26%). 6 of the last 9 MNF games have gone Under and we’ll call for another low scoring game.

#71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Tampa Bay at Toronto, Monday at 7:37 PM ET - Battle of back-up goalies here and we like the over! The Lightning are currently without Andrei Vasilevskiy and that means Jonas Johannson is getting the start here and the Maple Leafs are without Joseph Woll so Dennis Hildeby is getting the start here. Toronto is off a 2-1 shootout loss but this followed 3 straight wins and the Leafs scored an average of 5.3 goals in those 3 games! Maple Leafs home games have totaled 7 or more goals in 9 of the last 12 games! Toronto won all 4 games with Tampa Bay last season and all 4 of those games totaled at least 7 goals. The Lightning have lost 3 in a row but 2 of those were at home and prior to the lone road loss in the bunch, Tampa Bay had been red hot on the road and scoring plenty of goals. The Bolts had won 7 of their last 8 road games and scored an average of 4.4 goals in those 8 games! We look for TB to resume that goal-scoring success on the road again here and we also see the Maple Leafs coming up big in the goal-scoring department as they look to bounce back off the loss. With the situational factors plus the goal-tending injuries impacting this match-up, Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Toronto

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:40pm ET - With a busy NFL Sunday this write up will be shorter than usual. It looks like the line on this game is suggesting Luka Doncic will be back in the lineup for the Lakers after missing several games. We are fine with that and still feel the value lies with Philly. The Lakers are 16-6 SU on the season but look closer at their 10 most recent games where they are 8-2 SU. Only 1 of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record and that was a 3-point win in Toronto. The two losses in that stretch of games came against the Suns and Celtics who both grade out similarly to the 76ers. Philadelphia is getting healthier with the return of Paul George who scored 20 points last time out against the Bucks. Maxey is quietly one of the best scorers in the NBA and they are getting great play out of Edgecombe. The Lakers have a slight advantage in terms of efficiency differential at +3.2 compared to the 76ers at +0.3, but again the Lakers have faced the much easier schedule. Philly has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. We like them to win this home game outright.

#803 ASA PLAY ON TCU -9.5 over North Texas, Sunday at 5:30 PM ET - TCU should be in a foul mood here after blowing a home game on Friday vs Notre Dame and getting clipped by 2 points in OT. The Horned Frogs have a defensive efficiency rating of 27th nationally but did not play well on that end of the court vs the Irish. After the game head coach Jamie Dixon voiced his frustration, “I’m extremely disappointed in how we guarded.” You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court which is bad news for UNT. Prior to losing in OT vs the Irish, the Frogs pulled off back to back upsets beating Florida and Wisconsin on a neutral court. They also took Michigan, who is destroying everyone now, to the wire losing by 4. While TCU has played a number of high level teams, the Mean Green have played one of the lightest schedules in the country (347th SOS). They’ve only played 2 top 200 teams and lost to both. The only top 100 team they played was St Mary’s and they lost that game by 31 points. UNT is stepping into this contest on a 4 game winning streak but all were at home and all vs teams ranked 235th or lower. Their most recent 3 games all went to the wire (at home) vs bad teams. They topped Eastern Washington in OT, beat Prairie View A&M by 3 and Houston Christian by 2. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 5-16 (vs D1 opponents). This is not a great match up for North Texas. First of all, TCU will be extra motivated off a loss. It’s not a true home game for the Frogs but it’s being played at Dickies Arena which is 3 miles from their campus. TCU creates turnovers at a high level (11th nationally) and UNT turns the ball over at a 19% rate (265th). And that’s facing a schedule of teams that isn’t great at creating turnovers. In fact, only 1 opponent ranks in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate, Houston Christian, and the Mean Green turned the ball over at a 27% rate in that game. TCU should have a big edge at the FT line (UNT fouls at a high rate) and after getting outrebounded by Notre Dame, they’ll bring it on the glass as well. We like TCU by double digits in this one.

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Under 40.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This total is set very low but we still expect this one to stay Under. These 2 rivals met a few weeks ago with Denver winning that game 10-7 and neither team averaged 4.0 YPP. Las Vegas only had 188 total yards in the game while Denver had 220. It was a slow paced game with Denver running 55 total plays and Las Vegas running 52. To put that in perspective, the Steelers average the fewest plays per game in the NFL at 55. There were almost as many punts (15) as first downs (20) in that game. As bad as the Raiders are on offense ranking 30th in YPG, YPP, and 31st in scoring, their defense is solid. They rank 10th in YPP allowed and 39% of possessions facing this LV D have failed to gain a first down (3rd best in the NFL). The Denver offense is average at best ranking 14th in offensive DVOA and they’ve only played 3 games this year vs teams ranked in the top 12 in YPP allowed and scored 10, 15, and 20 points in those games. The Las Vegas offense has been poor all season ranking 31st in DVOA and they’ve topped 20 points once in the last 8 games. They’ve been held to 14 or less in 5 of their last 8. They are facing one of the elite D’s in the NFL as Denver allows 4.8 YPP (1st) and 18 PPG (4th). As bad as they’ve been on the season, they’ve been even worse as of late averaging just 212 YPG and 11.7 PPG over their last 4. Another grinder in the AFC West leads to an Under.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These arch rivals tend to play low scoring games and we expect that will be the case again on Sunday. Only 1 of the last 10 meetings has topped 42 points and the average total points scored over those 10 games in just 34. We don’t anticipate many possessions in this game as neither team plays up tempo with the Steelers ranking dead last in the NFL in plays per game and the Ravens rank 29th in that stat. Baltimore QB Jackson is still not 100% and the offense hasn’t been all that great since his return. In his 4 starts since getting back from injury, the Ravens have averaged only 314 YPG and Jackson has been a threat on the ground averaging only 21 YPG rushing on barely 3 YPC during that stretch. Since his return Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA passing offense. This offense just isn’t the same without his threat to run. Defensively this team has turned a corner. After allowing 32 PPG over their first 6 games, they have since allowed just 16.5 PPG over their last 6 games. Pittsburgh’s offense is one of the least explosive in the NFL. Over the last 6 games they rank 29th in EPA passing offense and for the season only 17% of their plays average 10 or more yards (27th in the NFL). They average less than 10 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards which is only ahead of the Cleveland Browns. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 games and with huge division deciding who sits in 1st place, we look for a low scoring, defensive battle.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Seattle has been held under 26 points only once in their last 6 games and that was vs a very good LA Rams defense. They are averaging 29 PPG on the season which is 4th in the NFL. Last week they scored 26 vs Minnesota but they held the Vikings scoreless so there was no need to score more than that. The Seattle offense wasn’t pushed to score at all last week. We think they’ll be pushed to score this week vs Atlanta. Teams that come off shutout wins tend to go Over the following week as we usually get a lower total than we should in that case. In fact, NFL road teams who pitched a home shutout the previous week are 13-1 to the Over since 2017. Atlanta averages 23 PPG at home this season and they’ve put up at least 23 points in 5 straight games. They started the season going Under the Total in 6 of their first 7 games but the Falcons have since gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games. QB Kirk Cousins is getting comfortable and has been solid the last 2 weeks in his starting role with 433 yards passing and completing over 66% of his passes. The Falcons have scored 48 points in those 2 Cousins starts. The Atlanta defense was solid early in the year but they’ve now allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only team not reaching that number being the Saints who are 30th in scoring. Seattle games are averaging 47 total points this season while Atlanta games are averaging 43 total points but in home games the Falcons are averaging 49 total points. Perfect conditions for scoring in the dome and we like the Over.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -8 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - It’s not the best scheduling situation for the Heat who are coming off a game last night while the Kings are rested, but Miami has lost two games in a row which should have them focused here. This bet is just as much a play against the Kings as it is a play on the Heat. Sacramento has not played well this season and are likely on the verge of blowing this roster up and starting over. The Kings have lost 4 straight, 2 of which came against Memphis and Utah, two below average teams. Sacto is the 3rd worst offensive efficiency team in the league and 5th worst defensively. They have an efficiency differential of minus -11.2. The Heat were in Orlando last night and lost a close game to the Magic. They didn’t have Tyler Herro for that game, but he’s expected back here. Miami ranks 13th in oEFF averaging 1.163-points per possession. The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league (3rd) with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.119 points per possession allowed. When playing on the road this season the Kings have a negative point differential of minus -11.6ppg. Miami has an average plus/minus at home of +6.9ppg. Miami is 6-2 ATS when coming off a loss and should get a double digit win here.

#706 ASA PLAY ON UW Milwaukee -4.5 over Robert Morris, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Milwaukee is in must win mode here at home after losing 4 of their last 5 games. Nothing to be ashamed of for the Panthers as they were double digit underdogs in all 4 of those losses, all were on the road, and all were vs top 100 teams (Indiana, Texas Tech, Wichita State, and Akron). You might assume based on those opponents that UWM has played one of the tougher schedules in the country and you’d be correct (32nd strength of schedule). The Panthers are 3-5 on the season and all 3 wins have come at home with all 5 losses coming on the road. Robert Morris could be gassed here after playing @ UWGB on Thursday night and completing a huge come back to win 80-78 on a layup as time expired. Green Bay led that game by 11 points with 2:35 remaining and blew it. Robert Morris is 7-3 on the season but they are just 2-3 in road games and really should probably be 1-4 if it weren’t for their unlikely win @ UWGB 48 hours ago. The Colonials are poor at a few things that make it tough to win on the road. They turn the ball over a lot (292nd in the country), they foul a lot (28% of opponents points come from the FT line – 6th most in the nation), and they don’t get to the FT line themselves (only 12% of their points come from the stripe – 4th least in the country). This is a double revenger for UWM who lost both games last year vs Robert Morris, including a 2 point loss here at home as a 9.5 point favorite. Now we’re getting the Panthers at a much cheaper price, they’ve had a full week off, while Robert Morris played on the road 48 hours ago. Lay it with Milwaukee.

#115 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is being played at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That’s a big advantage for UGA who plays there nearly every year and just played here last week vs Georgia Tech. The Dawgs didn’t play well in that game and seemed a bit disinterested to be honest, but still came away with a 16-9 win. They won’t be disinterested here. They are facing a Bama team that gave them their only loss in SEC play. UGA was favored by -2.5 @ Alabama in that game and now laying the same in a “neutral” site which actually should favor the Bulldogs being only 70 miles from their campus. In that 24-21 loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs were outgained by 40 yards but also ran 24 more offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of Georgia (6.7 PPP to 5.1 YPP). The Bulldogs also controlled the trenches rushing for 227 yards on 6.9 YPC compared to 117 yards on 3.1 YPC for Bama. The Tide are coming off their rivalry game with Auburn and pulled off a 27-20 win despite getting outgained 411 to 281 in the game. Alabama was actually outgained in 4 of their 6 SEC wins this season. On the ground, the Crimson Tide were outgained on a YPC basis in 7 of their 8 conference games. That leads us to what we think is the key in this game and that is UGA controlling the line of scrimmage. On the season they had a +1.5 YPC differential while Alabama was -0.1 in that category. UGA lost vs Alabama 27-24 in this game last year despite outgaining the Tide. In this double revenge spot, we’ll take Georgia to win and cover this one.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Seton Hall, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We expect a huge effort from KSU off a bad home loss vs Bowling Green on Monday. The Wildcats lost that game 82-66 as a 12 point favorite and while the Falcons are solid (110th per KenPom) it was still a game KSU expected to win. They may have been gassed after back to back losses away from home vs Indiana and Nebraska (both top 50 teams). They shout 39% overall, 26% from 3 and just 55% from the FT line in that loss to BG, all well below their season averages which are 49%, 41%, and 75% respectively. KSU sits with a 5-3 record and they’ve played a very tough slate (68th SOS) including 5 top 100 teams. Seton Hall, on the other hand, has a better record (8-1) but they’ve faced the 351st most difficult schedule and this will be their first true road game. Despite the much tougher schedule, Kansas State has shot the ball much better than Seton Hall this season including ranking 10th nationally from beyond the arc at 41%. That could be bad news for a Pirate D that has allowed opponents to make of their triples (249th). Points from deep could be the difference in this game with KSU scoring 35% of their points from 3 point land (85th in the country) while Seton Hall gets only 25% of their points from 3 (302nd). KSU has won 17 of their last 22 home games while the Pirates were 0-11 in true road games last season. Let’s lay it with Kansas State in a must win home situation.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Big 12 Championship game is being played in Dallas so this should be a Tech home crowd. BYU needs to win this game to get Into the Playoffs while Tech needs a big win to make sure they sit in the top 4 giving them a bye. A win here probably does that for the Red Raiders while a big win could move them up in the seeding. These 2 met @ Tech this year (we were on the Red Raiders) and they dominated BYU 29-7. It could have been much worse as the Raiders pushed inside the BYU 25 yard line a whopping 8 times, scored 2 TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, and were shut out on downs at the 2 yard line. Texas Tech’s only loss this season came by 4 points @ Arizona State and the Raiders played without their starting QB in that game and led that game by 3 with under 40 seconds remaining in the game. A late TD by ASU gave them the win. Since that loss, TT has outscored their last 211 to 36 for an average score of 42-7. They are in the top 3 in the nation in both scoring (43 PPG) and defensive points allowed (11 PPG). They sit in the top 7 in total offense and total defense. They have huge statistical edges compared to BYU with a point differential of +32 PPG (+17 PPG for BYU), +230 YPG (+90 YPG for BYU), and +2.5 YPP (+1.0 YPP for BYU). They continue to be undervalued covering 10 of their 12 games this season and Tech is not talked about enough. This team is good enough to win the National Championship. We’ll call for at least a 2 TD win on Saturday.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -4.5 over UNLV, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the value with Boise in this game which is a home game for the Broncos. These 2 met in October and Boise was a 13 point favorite and won 56-31 and outgained the Rebels 558 to 476. The Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-1 and still won the game by 25 points. While we don’t expect a blowout here, laying just over a FG with the host is worth a strong look here. BSU didn’t play great down the stretch going 2-2 over their last 4 games, however they were without starting QB Madsen for those games and he is now back and at 100% from what we’re hearing. He is a 2.5 year starter for the Broncos and is comfortable with the spotlight as he led them to a 21-7 win over UNLV in last year MWC Championship game. His return is key for this offense as they were averaging 35 PPG with Madsen at the helm and that dropped to 29 PPG with him on the shelf. We feel that UNLV is overrated with their 10-2 record. They faced only 2 teams in conference play that ended the year with winning records and lost to both of those teams (Boise & New Mexico). The only team that beat all season that ended the year with a winning record was Miami Oh (7-5 record) and the Rebs needed to come from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win that won by 3 points. Both teams are very good offensively but Boise State has a huge advantage on defense allowing 100 YPG and 1.0 YPP less than UNLV. The Broncos know what it takes to get to this game and win it. They’ve been in the MWC Championship game 7 of the last 8 seasons and won 4 of those, including the last 2 years (both over UNLV). This is old hat to this team. UNLV has lost the last 2 MWC Championship games to Boise but they have 70 new players on this year’s team that didn’t experience this game last season. The Broncos have dominated this series winning all 9 meetings (all by 5 points or more) by an average score of 40-19. They’ve also won 17 of their last 18 home games and they are 51-11 at home since the start of the 2016 season. We’ll lay the small number

#103 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with JSU as a slight favorite and flipped to KSU favored. We agree with the move and feel there is still value on Kennesaw State. These 2 just met here @ JSU on November 15th and Kennesaw was a 3.5 point favorite and lost 35-26. That was KSU’s only loss in their last 10 games and their only other 2 losses this year were @ Wake Forest (10-9 final score) and @ Indiana. The Owls outgained Jacksonville State in that loss (579 to 450) and had 14 more first downs but they also had 4 turnovers (0 for JSU). Not only did they have 4 turnovers, they were shut out on downs at the Gamecock 34 yard line and missed a FG. They didn’t punt in the game and 3 of their 4 turnovers most likely took points off the board with interceptions at the JSU 4 yards line, 23 yard line, and 23 yard line. While KSU’s 3 losses were all to high level teams, Jacksonville State loss to UCF, Georgia Southern, FIU, and Southern Miss. The Owls were the better team in CUSA play across the key stats while both finished 7-1 in league play. If we look at conference stats only, KSU finished higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency, had a better point differential, and had a better YPP differential. We’ll take Kennesaw State to win the CUSA Championship.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -3 over Dallas Cowboys, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value on the Lions here. They are favored by 3 points vs the Cowboys, which is the same number they were favored by vs Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. However the Packers rate 5th in the NFL per DVOA while the Cowboys are 16th. Based on that alone this line should be higher. Detroit has fallen out of the top 7 in the NFC and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Even with that, they are still rated as the 4th best team in the NFL per DVOA behind only Seattle, LA Rams, and Indianapolis. We’re getting the Lions at home off a loss which has been money in the bank. They are 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS the game following their last 14 SU losses. In their 31-24 loss to GB on Thursday, the stats were nearly dead even across the board, with the difference in the game being 4th down conversions. The Packers were 3 for 3 on 4th down including 2 TD’s while Detroit was 0 for 2, both in GB territory taking potential points off the board. We expect a nice bounce back here from Detroit in a huge game before they go on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Dallas has won 3 straight, 2 at home, but their road results haven’t been great. They have just 2 road wins this year @ NY Jets and @ Las Vegas, arguably the 2 worst teams in the NFL. When they’ve had to step up vs decent teams, the Boys lost by 4 @ Philly, by 17 @ Chicago, by 3 @ Carolina, and by 20 @ Denver. They have a negative YPG, YPP, and point differential away from home this season. We’ll lay the FG with the Lions.

ASA NBA play OVER 228 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is below an average NBA game but our model is projecting a total around the league average of 234. Toronto has some solid defensive numbers with the 5th best dEFF rating allowing 1.124-points per possession. The Lakers though don’t defend ranking 18th in dEFF and they’ve been worse yet with the return of LeBron, allowing 1.193PPP (24th). Offensively the Lakers have the 7th highest points per possession at 1.196PPP, the Raptors rank 13th at 1.170PPP. In terms of pace we should see a regular volume of attempts and tempo in this game with the Raptors 14th in pace, the Lakers are 19th. Toronto was having some scoring issues but seemed to find their stroke in their most recent game against the Blazers, putting up 121 points on 53% shooting. There is no reason to expect a dip in their shooting tonight against a Lakers defense that allows 48.3% on the season (24th). The Raptors by the way are 4th in the NBA in team FG% at 49.2%. On that note, do you know who the best shooting team in the NBA is? You guessed it, the Lakers at 51.3%. The last time these teams met on this court they produced 256 total points. It won’t be that high Thursday, but it will get over 230.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana State -3 over St Thomas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This is the Tommies 4th trip to the West Coast already this season in a 4 week span. They went to St Mary’s (California) then home, @ Washington State then back home, off to Portland for 3 games in 3 days then home, now off to Montana. Their 3 losses on the season all came on the West Coast. St Thomas is 6-3 on the season but they’ve faced the 266th strength of schedule and 2 of their 3 losses have come vs teams ranked 160th or lower. Montana State is 3-5 on the season but they are much better than their record. There is a reason the team with the much worse record is a full 3+ point favorite in this game. The Bobcats have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country (21st SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently ranked in the top 80 per KenPom and all on the road. For comparison, St Thomas has played only ONE game vs a team ranked in the top 150 and they lost that game by 26 points vs St Mary’s. The Bobcats have played only 2 home games this season and haven’t been at home since November 9th. The Bobcats most recent game on Saturday they faced the best team in the Mountain West, Utah State, on the road and took them to OT before losing by 3. That was an impressive loss, if there is such a thing, vs a Utah State team that is now 7-0 and 5 of their wins came by double digits. Despite their 3-5 record they have exceeded expectations in the market with a 5-1 ATS record. They are a good shooting team that ranks in the top 75 nationally in FG%, 3 point FG%, and scoring putting up 80 PPG. Montana State is in a must win spot here as their next 3 games are on the road. They catch St Thomas in a tough spot and we like the Bobcats to cover at home.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - Louisville is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played the 345th ranked strength of schedule (out of 365) per KenPom. They do have 2 decent wins beating Kentucky at home and Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cards haven’t played a “true” road game this season although they did play Cincy in Cincinnati, just not on their home court. Arkansas is 5-2 on the season with their 2 losses coming @ 8-0 Michigan State by 3 points and vs Duke by 9 points in their most recent game last Thursday. In their game vs Duke the Razorbacks led with 6:00 remaining and trailed by just 6 with under 1:00 remaining in the game. Not a bad loss. Arkansas has now had a full week off and they are at home where they are very tough to beat with an 18-4 record since Rick Pitino took over at the start of last season. They’ve only been a home dog twice in Pitino’s tenure (1-1 ATS) covering vs Bama last year and missing a cover vs last year’s National Champion Florida losing that game by 8. Louisville relies heavily on a few things that don’t match up all that well with Arkansas. They shoot a lot of 3’s, get to the FT line frequently, and create turnovers defensively. The Razorbacks have been solid at defending the arc (allowing 30% shooting), don’t foul very often (only 19% of opponent’s points come from the charity stripe), and don’t turn the ball over (13th nationally offensive turnover percentage). If this one is close late let’s keep in mind that Arkansas shoots 80% as a team from the FT line. We’ll take the points as we give Arky a great shot at pulling this “upset”.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7pm ET - We successfully backed the Spurs on Tuesday night but will fade them here. San Antonio played a 4-game road trip from Nov 23 - 30th, then were home last night against Memphis, and now travels to Orlando. The Magic have been at home and are coming off a win over the Bulls on Monday night 125-120. Orlando has won 6 straight home games with some impressive victories over the Knicks, Clippers and Warriors. Orlando is 8-3 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.5ppg. The Spurs are a respectable 5-4 SU on the road this season but again this schedule is going to have a negative impact on this team that is lacking depth at the moment with several starters out with injuries. The Spurs are 8-10 ATS their last 18 when playing without rest with an average loss margin of minus -5.2ppg. The Magic have won 4 straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. Lay it with Orlando.

English Premier League #200061/200062 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – Aston Villa at Brighton, Wednesday at 2:30 et - Brighton has scored multiple goals in 5 of their last 6 in Premier League matches. That run includes 3 in a row at home too so we trust the hosts to get the job done here and we also would not be surprised to see Aston Villa match them goal for goal in this one. Aston Villa is off a 1-0 win but this was on the heels of 4 straight matches (2 Premier League, 2 Europa League) that saw Aston Villa score multiple goals in all 4 games! 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams (1 was a friendly) have reached a total of at least 3 goals and all signs are pointing to that pattern continuing here. Over gets the call in this one!

#652 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame +1.5 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Mizzou steps into this game with a perfect 8-0 record but they have played nobody. Their strength of schedule ranks 364th per KenPom (out of 365 teams) and they’ve played only 1 road game vs Howard (ranked 311th). That game was way back on November 3rd and since that they have played 7 straight home games. Their best win was over Minnesota who is currently 4-4 and ranked as the 17th best team in the Big 10. Subtract that game and the Tigers haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 230 and they’ve faced 4 teams ranked outside the top 300. They travel tonight to take on a solid Notre Dame team that has played a much tougher schedule already facing 3 top 100 teams. The Irish have 3 losses coming @ Ohio State by 1 point, vs Houston on a neutral court by 10 points and vs Kansas on a neutral court by 10 points. Those 3 teams have a combined 19-4 record and all sit in the top 35 per KenPom with Houston and Kansas residing in the top 20. ND has played 4 home games this year and they are 4-0 in those contests and they have won 19 of their last 24 home tilts. They’ve had a week off since losing to Houston in Las Vegas last Wednesday. The Tigers have ridiculous shooting numbers to date hitting 55% of their shots on the season but they defenses they’ve faced have been a joke. The average defensive efficiency rating of the 8 teams they’ve faced is 278th and half the teams they’ve played (4) have a defensive efficiency rating of 330th or lower. Similar situation to last season when Mizzou started the season 13-3 but their 3 losses were their only neutral/road games they had played to that point. They finished last season with a 4-10 SU record in road/neutral games. Let’s take Notre Dame on Tuesday night.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 pm ET - We like the Spurs by double-digits in this one. Memphis is not in the best of schedule situation here playing their 4 straight road game and 5th of six away from home. In comparison they were just +6.5 at the Clippers who are not playing well and lost that game by 5-points. The Spurs will be happy to be home after a 4-game road trip with the most recent game being a loss in Minnesota. Prior to that game the Spurs had two solid road wins in Portland and in Denver. San Antonio does not have Wemby back yet, but did get Kornet and Harper back recently which strengthens their rotation. Memphis will have a tough time scoring here with the 28th ranked FG% at 44.3% going up against a Spurs D that allows the 9th lowest FG% against at 45.9%. San Antonio meanwhile is the 4th best shooting team at 49% versus a Grizz D that allows 47.6% (22nd). These two teams met on Nov 18th with the Spurs winning by 10-points as a 6-point chalk. We expect a similar result Tuesday night.

English Premier League #200045/200046 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-105) – Everton at Bournemouth, Tuesday at 2:30 et - Bournemouth is off a match that proved to them that no lead is safe. The Cherries just blew a 2-0 lead at Sunderland and lost 3-2. That type of match, when fresh in the minds of a club, is the type of result that will often bring about an aggressive and relentless attacking approach in the next game. That is what we expect from Bournemouth here and they also have the added confidence of winning each of the last 5 meetings between these clubs (whether meeting in EPL or other tournaments) and the Cherries scored an average of 2.2 goals in the 5 victories. Don't count out Everton either in the goal-scoring department here! Everton is off a 4-1 loss and will be wanting to respond off that ugly loss and they realize that a defensive approach here is not going to work against the attacking plans that Bournemouth has for this one. Everton must fight fire with fire so to speak and they have scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches. As for the hosts here, 4 straight Cherries matches (and 7 of last 8) have not only been overs, all of the overs totaled at least 4 goals! We are well aware of the fact that Everton trends toward lower-scoring matches but Bournemouth is going to dictate the pace and flow in this one! Everton can also take advantage of the fact the Cherries backline is without a key defender (Marcos Senesi - suspension) as he is likely going to be replaced by 18-year old Veljko Milosavljevic. Over gets the call here!

#483 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +7.5 over New England Patriots, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jaxson Dart will be back at QB for the Giants here. NY is 2-10 on the season but they’ve been very competitive for the most part. They have solid wins over the Chargers and Eagles and tight, one score losses vs Lions, Packers, Broncos, Cowboys, and Bears. They are 4-1 ATS this season when tabbed a dog of 7 or more. Offensively they’ve been very solid since Dart took over averaging 25 PPG their last 7 along with ranking 2nd in the NFL in offensive EPA during that stretch. They’ve also converted almost 48% of their 3rd downs during that 7 game span which is tops in the NFL for that time period. They’ve actually led in the 4th quarter in half of their losses this season (5). The Pats sit at 10-2 but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far while their opponent tonight, the Giants, have played the most difficult schedule. They’ve only been favored by a TD or more 3 times this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games. 6 of their 10 wins have come by a TD or less. Despite their record, New England only ranks as the 17th best team in the NFL per DVOA, only 6 spots ahead of the GMen. The Pats overall defensive numbers are solid, however they rank just 27th defensive DVOA so they are overrated for sure on that side of the ball. Offensively the Patriots will be without 2 starting offensive lineman which isn’t great for a team that already has allowed 37 sacks this season (3rd most in the NFL). The Giants have a solid defensive front and should cause problems for the Pats who only average 3.9 YPC (27th in the NFL). Too many points here as we expect this one to be tight.

#878 ASA PLAY ON Middle Tennessee State +2.5 over UAB, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We have MTSU as a slight home favorite and we’ll grab the value. MTSU has been through the gauntlet already this season playing the 19th most difficult schedule in the country yet they still have a record above 500 (4-3). Their losses have all come vs top 80 teams (Michigan, McNeese St, and George Washington) and they were all away from home (road and neutral). The Blue Raiders actually haven’t played at home since November 8th! They are in must win mode coming off 2 losses in a row and have a chance to make some hay with 4 straight home games. They’ve been off since last Tuesday so they will be rested and ready. This team was 22-12 a year ago and they bring back 4 of their top 8 players and a few key transfers. UAB, on the other hand, has NOBODY back from last year. Their starters and rotation players are all transfers and freshmen. The Blazers beat MTSU at home by 7 last year and they don’t have a single player on this year’s team that played in that game. UAB has played the much easier schedule (243rd SOS) and they’ve played only 1 true road game vs NC State and lost by 24. The Blazers can’t shoot from deep, ranking 335th (making only 26%) which is why only 20% of their points come from beyond the arc (354th nationally). They are facing an MTSU defense that allows just 27% shooting from beyond the arc so we expect the Blue Raiders, who shoot 35% from 3, to have a decided advantage in that key stat. The Raiders have won 19 of their last 23 home games and we’ll call for them to win this game as a dog.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - This line opened considerably higher than where it currently stands but according to our model there is still value in the UNDER. In fact our baseline model is projecting 224.5 total points, the advanced model has 229.5. The Bucks offense has stalled in recent weeks with scoring outputs of 110 or less in 6 of ten games. They have scored 116 or less in 9 of ten. Milwaukee plays at the 20th slowest pace in the NBA for the season but have been significantly slower in their last 5-games at 96.3 possessions per game (25th). The Wiz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA averaging just 1.089 points per possession (27th out of 30 teams). They do play at the 4th highest rate in the league, but much like the Bucks have been playing slower in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is averaging 115.5ppg on the season with the 19th rated offensive efficiency in the NBA at 1.151PPP. The Wizards have scored 115 or less in 7 of their last ten games. An average NBA game this season is averaging 233.4ppg but the way these offenses are playing this game doesn’t get close to being average. Bet UNDER!

#482 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +6.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Definite buy low, sell high spot here. The Broncos travel across the country with an 8 game winning streak in pocket. Meanwhile, the Commanders have lost 6 in a row. Despite that, this spread was 6.5 and had dropped to 5.5. The Broncos haven’t been dominant very often this season and they trailed in each of their last 8 games and turned them into wins (most of them close). They are the first team since 1980 that won 8 in a row despite trailing in each. Overall, their wins (and losses) for the most part have been close. In fact, of their 9 wins this season, 7 have been decided by 1 score and 6 by 4 points or less. Their road games have all been decided by 4 points or less and they’ve struggled to put away bad teams at times beating the Jets by 2, Titans by 8, Giants by 1, and Raiders by 3. It looks like Marcus Mariota will be starting at QB for Washington for the 6th time this season but other than that, this team is finally healthy. Head coach Dan Quinn has had nearly his full roster able to practice the last 2 weeks (coming off a bye) including WR’s McLaurin and Brown. Despite their record, the Broncos have been a mistake prone team as they lead the NFL in penalties and have a negative turnover differential. Tough to keep winning games in the NFL with that formula. We’ll call this one close as most of Denver’s games have been. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET - The 76ers are beat up right now and aren’t a deep team to begin with. Atlanta is quietly 12-8 on the season with an 8-4 SU road record. The Hawks are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 48.9% with the 7th best 3PT%. The Sixers are 18th in team FG% at 46.4% and 11th in 3PT%. Defensively the Hawks are 13th in efficiency ratings, the 76ers are 19th. Embiid is out today for Philadelphia along with his backup Drummond. Edgecombe is doubtful, Oubre Jr out and Paul George is still not 100%. Atlanta has been playing without Trae Young for most of the season but Jalen Johnson is playing lights out in his absence. Porzigis missed the Hawks last game but could be back here. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series and should be the favorite in this game.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Buffalo Bills' offense had difficulty protecting QB Allen last Thursday against one of the league’s premier defensive fronts, allowing 8 sacks to the Texans. No matter how good Allen is, he can’t complete passes or run the football on his back. While the Pittsburgh Steelers no longer operate at that same elite level up front, they retain multiple capable pass rushers (TJ Watt – 7 sacks) who can still generate consistent pressure. Buffalo’s offensive line is facing considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend, with both starting tackles absent from early-week practices and left tackle Dion Dawkins currently in the concussion protocol. The Bills will be on the road for the second straight week and have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. In fact, the Bills road woes are glaring as they average 15ppg away from home with Allen having the same number of INT’s as TD’s on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense has had some issues this season but have an opportunity to ‘get right’ against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd in yards per play allowed (5.7) and can’t stop the run (30th). With an established running game, QB Rodgers becomes much better utilizing play action. The Steelers do rank 11th in points per game and have eclipsed 23 points in seven of their last eight outings—a stretch that includes matchups against Minnesota, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Indianapolis, all of whom rank top 13 in yards per play defense. There are many home dog trends that support the Steelers here including a 11-5-1 ATS streak dating back to 2020 in that role.

#471 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -3 over New York Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons might be a better team with Kirk Cousins under center than Penix Jr in the current state of the team. We don’t think it matters who’s playing QB for the Jets (Taylor or Fields), they’re still bad. New York has 2 wins on the season and the 5th widest scoring differential of minus -6.5ppg. Even at home the Jets are losing by over a TD per game. Last week the Falcons got a much-needed win over the Saints after losing 5 straight (4 of which came against teams with .500 or above records). Atlanta averaged 5.7YPP in that game with solid balance in both aspects of the offense, rushing and passing. The Jets are coming off a 10-23 loss to the Ravens as the offense continues to struggle. New York is 29th in total yards per game gained, 28th in YPP (5.1) and average less than 20ppg. They will face an Atlanta defense that is above average in most key defensive metrics. Atlanta is still mathematically alive for the playoffs but essentially must win out. We will lay the short number with the Birds.

English Premier League #200029/200030 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Liverpool at West Ham United, Sunday at 9:05 am et - Liverpool seemed to be back on track with a couple wins and yet they continue to be leaky at the back and that has led to another slump.  The Reds will continue allowing goals here too as West Ham United has enough firepower, especially on their home pitch, to get the job done in the goal-scoring department in this one.  The issue for the Hammers will be trying to stop a Liverpool attack that is potent plus will be ready to respond after 3 straight losses to PSV, Nottingham and Manchester City.  Liverpool has scored 24 goals in the last 7 meetings with West Ham.  Also, all 7 of those matches totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the last 6 have totaled at least 4 goals!  The Hammers are undefeated in their last 3 matches and have scored 8 goals in those 3 games.  You can see why we fully expect the goals to be flying here in this one!  Over gets the call here! 

#442 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 11 PM ET - The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker at home last weekend which dropped them to 4-7 and out of bowl contention. They lost 13-7 as a 6.5 point home favorite to Nevada. The Wolfpack, who were 1-8 vs FBS teams entering the game, outgained Wyoming and dominated the ground game 213 yards rushing to 68. A Nevada fumble led to a 21 yard TD drive which was the Cowboys only points of the game. After the game, starting RB Sam Scott summed up the feeling in the locker room, “Devasted is the word”. We don’t think Wyoming will be able to make this long travel and “get up off the mat” so to speak for this now meaningless game. The offense is really struggling scoring a grand total of 17 points over their last 3 games, all losses. They’ve actually struggled all year ranking 118th in YPP (5.1) and 126th in scoring (17.8 PPG). They’ve even been worse on the road where they average just 12 PPG. They’ve scored just 3 TD’s in their last 13 quarters of football. They only topped 17 points 3 times this year in conference play and those were vs defenses ranked 109th, 124th, and 129th. Hawaii may not have to do much offensively to cover this number. The Rainbows will be plenty motivated here coming off their worst conference showing of the season losing @ UNLV 38-10. The defense has been very solid all year and will have a chip on their shoulder here after that performance which won’t be good for the Cowboys who are bad offensively. In their 6 home games this D has allowed just 292 YPG and 16 PPG. On offense, the Bows average 31 PPG at home and they are 5-1 on the island. In their most recent home game, they smoked the best team in the MWC, San Diego State, by a final score of 38-6. The Rainbows, with a 7-3 record, will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2020. They’ve had an extra day to prepare (played last Friday and Wyoming played Saturday) and will want to go out on a high note on Senior Day before they play in their bowl game. The game is a sellout so the atmosphere for this home game should be good. Let’s lay it.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

#716 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -13.5 over Little Rock, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for SIU. The Salukis are a very good team, but their record doesn’t show that. They are 3-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home vs top 160 teams. They’ve been on the road since November 7th and played only 2 home games this season and came away with 2 easy wins. Their most recent 2 losses came away from home vs top 100 teams UAB (lost by 8) and Memphis (lost by 16). We were on Memphis in that game as it set up perfectly to take the Tigers. Today we like SIU back at home in a must win game. They’re facing Little Rock who will be playing their 6th consecutive road game. The Trojans are 1-4 in those 5 road games leading up to this one with their only win coming @ Ball State (ranked 298th) who is 1-4 vs D1 teams. 3 of their 4 losses during this stretch have come by at least 20 points. They turn the ball over at a ridiculous 26% rate (worst in CBB) and they aren’t a good rebounding team (outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive boards). SIU is top 70 in the nation in both offensive and defensive FG%. Little Rock is 175th in offensive FG% but their defense has been a sieve ranking 343rd in defensive FG% and 360th in 3 point FG% allowed. They’ve also allowed 89 points or more in 3 of their 5 games vs D1 opponents. The one thing the Trojans have done well is shoot the 3. They have hit 43% of their triples, which isn’t sustainable, and despite that they are 1-4 on the season (vs D1 opponents) and they’ve been blown out 3 times. If they don’t hit a high number of triples today this one could get ugly. We’ll lay it.

#438 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -13.5 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a revenger from a few weeks ago when Washington State traveled to Oregon State and lost 10-7 as a 3.5 point favorite. Wazzu dominated the stats (+100 yards) and outgained the Beavers by +1.5 YPP in that loss. The Cougars had 2 turnovers in the game (0 for OSU) and they were shutout on downs twice inside Beaver territory. Washington State bounced back from that loss with an easy 28-3 win the following week at home vs La Tech (we were on Wazzu in that one). They lost last week at James Madison, who is 10-1 and fighting for a potential playoff spot. However, the Cougars played very well in that game and led JMU 20-17 midway through the 4th quarter before falling 24-20 as a 14.5 point dog (JMU had a pick 6 so only 17 points scored offensively). With that loss, this game becomes ultra important as a win gets them to bowl eligible. This team is better than their record. They’ve played a tough schedule traveling to Ole Miss, Virginia, and James Madison and losing those games by a combined 9 points! Those teams currently have a combined record of 29-4 and Wazzu gave them all a run for their money and on the road none the less. At home the Cougs are 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Washington. They’ve beaten the top team in the MAC here handily (beat Toledo 28-7) and creamed the best team the Mountain West at home (beat San Diego State 36-13). While Washington State is fighting for a bowl game, the Beavers are just 1-9 vs FBS teams this year with their win coming vs Wazzu. They are also in the process of searching for a new coach (just named an Alabama assistant as their new head coach – this has been a distraction for both players and coaches). The Beavs are 0-4 on the road and their average score away from home is 36-14 while getting outgained 496 to 300 YPG. They’ll struggle here offensively vs a Washington State D that held them to 184 total yards a few weeks ago and OSU punted on 10 of their 12 possessions. The Cougs have held 6 of their 11 opponents to 13 points or less. WSU has been outstanding on defense holding James Madison to 24 points last week (they average 40 PPG), Toledo to 7 points (they average 32), Ole Miss to 24 points (they average 37) and UVA to 22 points (they average 34). The Cougars have been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks and they shouldn’t have to go crazy on offense to cover this game as we expect OSU to do next to nothing. We like Washington State to win this one easily.

#422 ASA PLAY ON BYU -17.5 over Central Florida, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The most recent Playoff committee rankings came in a few days ago and BYU sits at 13th just outside of the top 12 who make the playoffs. They need a big win with some style points added on in their home finale on Saturday. We think they’ll pick up an easy win in this one. They are coming off a double digit win @ Cincinnati in a game where they dominated the trenches outrushing the Bearcats 265 to 87. The BYU defense was on the field for only 61 snaps (and only 57 the week before vs TCU) so they should be fresh here. BYU is 5-0 at home with 4 wins coming by at least 14 points. The only team that didn’t roll over at home was Utah as they topped the rival Utes by 3. Their most recent home game was an absolute blasting of a good TCU team 44-13 outgaining the Horned Frogs 447 to 298. They are taking on a simply not very good UCF team that had lost 6 of their previous 7 before getting a tight 3 point home win vs a bad Oklahoma State team (1-10 record) last week. The Knights never led in that game until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. UCF has been a terrible road team this year and this is a long travel game for them. They are 0-4 away from home this year and in those games they’ve scored 3, 9, 11, and 20 points. They are averaging just 4.6 YPP on the road compared to 5.8 YPP at home. UCF has gotten rolled by an average score of 33-11 away from home while BYU is winning by an average score of 40-12 at home. This one will get ugly and BYU won’t let up as they need to take advantage of every statement they can make to the Playoff committee.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -17 over Colorado, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Big final home game for KSU as they need a win to become bowl eligible. They’re playing a Colorado team that looks like they’ve tanked it on the year losing 6 of their last 7 with 3 of their last 4 losses coming by 25+ points. Last week the Buffs played their final home game and got rolled 42-17 by an Arizona State team that has been playing without their starting QB and best offensive player Leavitt. The Devils didn’t even really need a QB in last week’s win as they rushed for 355 yards 8 YPC. It wasn’t a one off as CU ranks 135th (out of 136 teams) stopping the run. They’ve been dominated in the trenches week in and week out. That’s a problem here. That’s because KSU loves to run the ball and put up a whopping 472 yards on the ground on 11.2 YPC last week vs a very good Utah team. The Cats outplayed the 9-2 Utes on the road, which very few teams do, leading by 12 in the 4th quarter before losing by 4. That loss makes this game very important for Kansas State. The Buffs offense can’t run (120th in rushing) so they rely on the pass. They will be sitting freshman QB Lewis here, who has started the last 2 games, to preserve his redshirt. Opposing QB’s have completed just 57% vs this KSU defense and we’re expecting cold and windy conditions in Manhattan KS on Saturday which would be bad news for an already shaky CU offense that can’t run. The Cats should easily control the trenches here on both sides of the ball and wear out a Colorado team that might not put up much of a fight. We’ll lay it and watch KSU dominate this game.

English Premier League #200005/200006 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Leeds United at Manchester City, Saturday at 10 am et - Leeds United is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Though the visitors should find the back of the net in this one, they are massive underdogs for a reason and we project a 3-1 type of blowout here. Manchester City is known for responding big when off a disappointing result and this is particularly true when at home. With Manchester City off B2B losses - one in Champions League and one in Premier League - they are sure to be in 'attack mode' here at home versus Leeds. Manchester City has averaged scoring 4 goals in the last 4 meetings with Leeds and note that Leeds United has scored a goal in each of the last two meetings and we expect a solid result here. Leeds has scored 10 goals in the last 8 matches but also allowed 2.1 goals per match in the last 7 matches and now, like we said, are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Prior to the B2B losses, Manchester City had scored at least 3 goals in 4 straight matches and we expect them to respond here with another effort along the lines of those big wins!

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

#329 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -14 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 3:30 PM ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium - Georgia Tech received 10 million dollars to move this game from their home stadium (Bobby Dodd) to the Mercedes Benz Dome here in Atlanta. That venue has become a “second home” for the Bulldogs even though Tech is located in Atlanta. The Dogs have played at least 1 game at this stadium every year since 2017. UGA is 4-0 at Mercedes Benz Stadium vs non SEC foes in Kirby Smart’s time here. Smart’s team has quietly been playing as well as any team in the country down the stretch. They have won 7 straight since losing by 3 points vs Alabama with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 games. The offense has posted at least 35 points in 5 of their last 7 and should have a field day vs a really bad Georgia Tech stop unit who has allowed 48, 34, and 42 points the last 3 weeks vs NC State, BC, and Pitt. Those teams are obviously nowhere near the level of this UGA team. Tech actually lost 2 of those games vs NC State and Pitt (both by double digits) while beating a terrible BC team by 2 points. The Jackets were in must win mode at home last week vs Pitt and lost 42-28. A win would have put them in the ACC Championship game and they got smoked (down 28-0 out of the gate). They now have no chance to make the title game. The Jackets lean on their running game but they are facing a UGA defense that has shut opposing teams rushing attacks down (5th nationally allowing 92 YPG on the ground). While Tech’s defense is really bad, their offense does have great numbers, however they’ve faced a very weak slate of defenses including stop units ranked 110th or lower in 4 of their last 5 games. Different story here with an athletic UGA D in the top 20. The Bulldogs have incentive to pour it on if they can to improve their potential playoff seed as well. Let’s lay it.

French Ligue 1 - #203237/203238 ASA PLAY ON OVER 2.5 goals (-140) Rennes at Metz, Friday at 2:45 ET - The last five times these clubs have squared off the game reached a total of at least 3 goals all 5 times.  In fact, those 5 games averaged a crazy 5 goals apiece.  When these clubs meet the goals fly and we expect that to be the case once again here.  Metz enters this match on a high-scoring run in which they have scored 2 goals in 4 straight games!  Rennes has scored 16 goals in their last 7 games and also 8 of their last 10 games reached a total of at least 3 goals scored.  Based on current trending of both clubs as well as the match-up history when these teams meet, this one should easily eclipse the total of 2.5 goals and we'll lay the price here with no hesitation as we love this total at 2.5 goals.  Our computer math model has this one most likely finishing in the 2-1 or 2-2 range. Over gets the call in this one!

#609 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -2 over Marquette, Friday at 2 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Chicago. Marquette is a young team with 4 underclassmen in their top 7 and still trying to figure things out. They are 4-3 on the year despite playing all home games and 1 neutral site game. While other teams are grabbing experienced players in the portal to fill spots, Marquette coach Shaka Smart doesn’t really use the portal. He builds with his young players which is fine, but when they lose their 3 leading scorers from last season (combined to average almost 45 PPG) and replace them with inexperienced players, it can be tough sledding early in the season. Oklahoma has a number of transfers but they are all experienced players who play big roles on their previous teams. The start 4 upperclassmen and their rotation is mainly seniors and juniors. They have 2 losses this season @ Gonzaga, which was to be expected, and vs Nebraska on a neutral court here in Chicago. The Huskers have proven to be very solid early in the season (7-0 record) and Oklahoma blew a 16 point lead in that game. The Golden Eagles thrive on creating turnovers for extra possessions (41st defensive turnover rate) and getting to the FT line (top 100 in percentage of points from the FT line). That doesn’t match well vs this Sooner team who has a very experienced backcourt and doesn’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate). They also don’t foul with opponents scoring only 14% of their points from the charity stripe (11th best in the country). Oklahoma is the better shooting team across the board overall FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%. We’ll lay the small number here as we expect the Sooners to win this one by a solid margin.

#318 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7 over Ole Miss, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU has been undervalued all season as this team has been very competitive for the most part. Their spread record is 8-3 overall and 5-1 ATS at home with their only non-cover here coming vs Georgia. The Bulldogs would like nothing better than to ruin, or at least put into question, the Rebels shot at the CF Playoffs with an upset here. Not only that, they have the motivation of a 6 win season and a bowl game if they pull off this home win. Ole Miss, while trying to make it to the playoffs, have some serious distractions with head coach Lane Kiffin courting a number of different offers with LSU and Florida being at the forefront. In fact, Kiffin is the odds on favorite to end up in Baton Rouge with -200 posted at most sportsbooks. If he does take that job, he more than likely won’t even be around to coach Ole Miss in the playoffs if they make it. Weird situation. The Rebs have only played 3 road games this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games with all decided by a single score. Last season Ole Miss was the host in the Egg Bowl and won by 12 but never led by more than 6 until their final TD in the fourth quarter. The YPP stats in that game were dead even (both averaged 5.3 YPP) but MSU had 3 turnovers (0 for Mississippi). Prior to last year’s game decided by 12 points, the previous 5 meetings were all decided by 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have taken some of the SEC’s elite to the wire here at home as they led Texas by 17 in the 4th quarter (lost in OT) and led Tennessee by 7 with under 2:00 remaining in the game (lost in OT). We’ll call for this one to go to the wire and take the points.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 48.5 Points - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Thursday at 1 PM ET - The markets are telling us the play in this game is UNDER the total. Even with public money flying in on this Over, the oddsmakers are adjusting the number down slightly. At Sharp Books we are seeing money come in on the UNDER. On the short week, early kickoff in a MASSIVE divisional game, we expect the defenses to outshine the offenses. Earlier this season these two teams met in perfect conditions in Green Bay with an O/U of 48.5 and they produced 40 total points. Green Bay netted 266 total yards, the Lions just 246. Detroit’s offense is averaging 6.3 YPP (4th best) but the Packers defense allows just 4.8 YPP, 2nd lowest number in the NFL. Green Bay’s offense has been ‘average’ in most cases this season 13th total yards per game, 13th YPP, 13th scoring. The Lions defense has similar numbers compared to the Packers offensive standings and allow just 22.1 PPG (12th fewest). The Packers offense has slipped with the loss of TE Kraft and their one big offensive showing in the past month came against a bad Giants defense. The Lions have a few big offensive games on their resume, but they’ve come against Washington and the Giants, again, bad defenses and nothing compared to Green Bay’s. The Packers defense ranks 4th in total yards per game given up, 2nd in YPP, give up the 6th fewest rushing yards and 5th lowest passing yards per game. We are on the UNDER in this early Thanksgiving Day schedule.

UEFA Europa League: #224405/224406 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 (-145) FC Midtjylltand at Roma, Thursday at 12:45 pm et – Roma is hosting FC Midtjylland here and the hosts have a very experienced manager (Gian Piero Gasperini) and are off to a strong start in Italian Serie A action this season.  As for the visitors, they have been scoring well in their Denmark action as well as Europa League matches and have averaged 2.7 goals scored in their last 10 games!  Roma has scored 5 goals in their last 3 games as a host and we don't see them being slowed down here at home by this Denmark side.  Roma has scored multiple goals in 3 straight games and also 4 of their last 5 plus we also expect FC Midtjylland to continue their scoring surge.  Our computer math model shows a strong probability of a match totaling 4 to 5 goals here and even if it lands on 3 that would still be a win for us here. Excellent line value and we will take the Over in this one.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

#744 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -2.5 over Indiana State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Weird spot here as these 2 non-conference foes just faced off a week ago @ Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 60-51 as 3.5 point favorites. Just based on that line 1 week ago, La Tech should be favored by at least 3.5 here. In that loss, LT shot 29% from the field, 12% from beyond the arc (2 of 16) and only made 11 of their 20 FT attempts. Even with that horrible shooting effort, it was a 5-point game with under 1:00 minute left. That’s because LT dominated the boards pulling down nearly 30% of their misses which led to 6 more shot attempts and 10 more FT attempts in that loss. If the Bulldogs do anything but shoot terrible in that game they could have picked up a big road win. Indiana State didn’t light the world on fire either (33%) but they made 9 more triples (+27 points from 3) and the game still was fairly tight. We expect ISU to have problems again offensively here vs a La Tech defense that ranks 2nd in the nation allowing opponents to shoot just 32% from the field while allowing only 55 PPG. The Sycamores are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming @ SIU Edwardsville. They have shot under 40% this year on the road and jot only 26% from deep. La Tech is coming off back to back 20 win seasons and they’ve been tough at home going 27-6 SU since the start of the 2023 season. Meanwhile, ISU is off a 14-18 year and their head coach, Matthew Graves, has never had a winning season in his 6 years as a head coach (South Alabama and ISU). LT has had a full week to stew over last Wednesday’s loss @ ISU and we like them to win this game at home and cover this short number.

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - New York Rangers at Carolina, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We are well aware that the Rangers have struggled to score goals for much of this season but the key here is that Hurricanes goalie Pyotr Kochetkov (lower body) is out and Frederik Andersen has been struggling badly!  The veteran netminder is having a rough start to the season and has lost 4 straight starts with an unsightly .854 save percentage during this run.  In fact, on the season the veteran netminder has allowed at least 3 goals in all but 2 of his dozen games!  The point being that this is a great game for the Rangers offense to get back on track and, they have shockingly been better on the road in comparison with at home this season.  New York has averaged scoring 3 goals in their 14 road games this season!  As for Carolina, they love playing at home and consistently score well here.  In fact, 8 of the 9 Hurricanes home games have totaled at least 7 goals and we love this spot for another over!  The Canes have been waiting for this one after losing 4-1 over the weekend at Buffalo.  Back home and ready to push the pace, this game should feature plenty of scoring chances.  The Hurricanes have averaged scoring 4 goals at home this season plus have allowed at least 3 goals in 8 of 9 games on home ice this season.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability based on the simulations. Over is the play Wednesday in Carolina

Champions League #224241/224242 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (+105) – Monaco at Pafos, Wednesday at 12:45 pm ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here.  Pafos is hosting and they are well aware of the fact that Monaco is having issues defensively and that will put the hosts in attack mode from the outset in this one.  However, Monaco is the overall stronger side and is favored on the road here for a reason.  Monaco has allowed 4 goals in back to back matches plus has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 4 in French Ligue 1 action.  The concerns defensively are genuine for this club.  However, Monaco can score well and Pafos is from the weaker Cyprus League.  At times Pafos can frustrate opponents but usually the stronger side gets their goal-scoring going and we saw this in Champions League action when Bayern Munich put up 5 goals on this Pafos club!  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and not having to lay any juice with the over at 3 goals! 

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -5.5 vs. LA Clippers, 11 pm ET - We are going to fade the Clippers here after a grueling 6-game road trip that started in Dallas on Nov 14th and ended in Cleveland on the 23rd. The Lakers also have LeBron back in the lineup after missing the first few weeks of the season. The Lakers are the better team right now with an efficiency differential of +2.6 compared to the Clippers at -5.5. The Lakers are 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.172-points per possession, the Clippers rank 21st at 1.144PPP. The gap defensively is even greater with the Lakers 15th in dEFF versus the Clippers who rank 24th. The Lakers have shot the ball extremely well this season at 50.6% (2nd) while the Clippers are average at 47%. The Clippers are 2-7 SU on the road this season, the Lakers 4-2 SU at home. The Lakers won 3 of four last season against this Clippers team and this year’s version of the Lakers is better and the Clippers are worse.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - With a win here, Western Michigan guarantees themselves a spot in the MAC Championship game. They may still get in with a loss depending on how the tie breakers play out. Eastern Michigan would like nothing better than to potentially spoil that situation. We should get big effort across the board in this game. WMU’s defense is outstanding. They rank 20th in the country in total defense and YPP allowed while giving up only 13.6 PPG in MAC play. They have had only 1 opponent in conference play top 21 points and only 1 of their games in MAC play topped 45 total points. The Bronco offense likes to run, run, and run some more. They have attempted only 23 passes combined their last 2 games and they average 42 rush attempts per game (5th most in the country). That eats clock and shortens the game. EMU’s defensive numbers for the season are poor but in conference play they haven’t been terrible. They are allowing 5.5 YPP in league play and over their last 2 games combined they’ve allowed less than 5.0 YPP. The Eagles offense is middle of the pack in MAC games averaging 350 YPG and 23 PPG. EMU has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and have gotten to 50 total points only once in conference action. WMU games are averaging 37 total points in MAC action and EMU games are averaging 47 total points. This total is set too high. This one shapes up as a defensive battle between these 2 conference / state rivals. Let’s take the Under.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame -6.5 over Rutgers, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Both teams lost on Monday here with Notre Dame getting knocked off by Kansas (lost by 10) and Rutgers losing to Tennessee by 35 points. The Irish, a top 100 three point shooting team, hit only 16% vs Kansas (11th nationally defending the arc) which was the difference in that game. ND is hitting 36% of their triples this season and now facing a Rutgers defense that ranks 300th defending the arc. We expect the Irish to shoot much better on Tuesday. Rutgers is rated as the worst team in the Big 10 per KenPom and by a fairly wide margin. They rank 131st nationally and the next worst team in the conference is 104th (Minnesota). The Scarlet Knights have faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (351st SOS) and yet they still have 2 losses including a home setback at the hands of Central Connecticut. All of their wins have come vs teams ranked 285th or lower and many of those wins were much tighter than anticipated. That’s why Rutgers is just 1-5 ATS this season. They were creamed on the boards yesterday vs Tennessee (-15 rebounds) and we expect Notre Dame to control the glass here. The Irish are inside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Rutgers is outside the top 100 in both. These 2 met here in Vegas last season and Rutgers escaped with a 1 point OT win. The Knights had 2 top 5 NBA 1st round draft picks on that team (Harper & Bailey) and the only 2 players back for Rutgers that played in that game combined for 0 points in 15 minutes of play. Notre Dame, on the other hand, return 3 starters from that game and 4 of their top 6 in minutes played. We like the Irish to get their payback and cover this game in Vegas.

Champions League #224201/224202 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Royale Union SG at Galatasaray, Tuesday at 12:45 pm ET - Galatasaray is so strong at home plus their Champions League overall performance has been fantastic.  Royale Union SG is certainly dangerous enough on the attack but their defense has proven to be vulnerable against tough competition and this trip to Galatasaray is no easy task.  We would not be surprised if we see multiple goals from each club in this one.  Royale Union SG has scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last 6 games.  In Champions League action they have allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games!  Galatasaray is off of a 3-2 win in Turkish Super Lig action plus they have scored 3 goals in their last two matches in Champions League action!  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this one and only having to lay a minimal price to have the over at 3 goals!  

ASA play on Utah @ Golden State Under 239½ - Model sees just 229.4 points, thanks to Utah's middling 114.9 oEFF against GSW's stingy 113.8 dEFF, at a deliberate 100.9 combined pace (below league avg of 100.5). Last season in 3 meetings the UNDER cashed twice. Utah's road woes (last 10 away unders 7-3) seal the low-scoring trap. Jazz also 6-10 UNDER their last 16 when playing without rest.

ASA play on Houston @ Phoenix Over 226½ - Our model projects 235.2 total, fueled by Houston's blistering 124.6 oEFF (elite offense) clashing with Phoenix's 118.7 oEFF in a combined pace of ~98.4 possessions. Both teams rank top-10 in scoring efficiency this season , with Houston averaging 122.9 PPG and Suns 119.0 . Houston on 5-2 OVER streak in their last seven games. This game has extra excitement with the return of Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Bet OVER.

ASA play on UNDER 50 Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15pm ET - Last week the Panthers put up 30-points against the Falcons but that was an outlier based on their previous 4 games when they scored 7, 16, 9 and 13 points. The 49ers scored 41 points but had just 281 total yards of offense. Carolina is 22nd in total yards per game at 314, 26th in yards per play at 5.2 and 28th in scoring at 18.8ppg. The Panthers want to run the football (7th most rush attempts per game) which is great for us UNDER bettors as it typically shortens games. They could have a tough time though as that’s the strength of the 49ers defense which allows 104 rushing yards per game (12th) and 4.1 yards per rush (13th). San Francisco hasn’t lived up to expectations defensively, but they are still average in points allowed at 23 per game. The Niners seem to move the ball offensively with the 10th most total yards per game average this season (350yds) at 5.6 YPP (14th) but it hasn’t translated to a ton of points as they average 23.7ppg (15th). The Panther’s defense is near average in a lot of defensive categories including total YPG (15th) allowed, and PPG allowed (13th). With both teams coming off higher scoring games last week the oddsmakers had to adjust the numbers this week expecting public money on the OVER. That’s great for us though as we’ll grab the added value with UNDER.

ASA play on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ - Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP's anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF - bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago's 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans' injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

#306526 ASA PLAY ON McNeese State -1 over Murray State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. Both of these teams played yesterday as well with McNeese topping a very good George Washington team (62nd in KenPom ratings) by 6 points while Murray State lost by 3 vs Middle Tennessee State (142nd per KenPom). The Racers are still adjusting to a new head coach and they don’t have a single key player back from last season. All 5 starters and their top reserves are either transfers or freshmen. They are 4-2 on the season but all 4 wins have come vs teams ranked 230 or lower per KenPom. Murray State’s strength of schedule to date is 304th. In their loss vs Middle Tennessee State last night actually made 10 more FT’s and 1 more 3 pointer so they were +13 points from FT and 3 yet still lost the game. McNeese, on the other hand, has already faced a top 70 strength of schedule and they sit with a 4-1 record. Their lone loss was @ Santa Clara who is 6-0 on the season. McNeese was 27-6 last season and upset Clemson in the NCAA tourney before losing by 12 to Purdue. They return 4 of their top 7 players so much more continuity for this team early in the season. They do have a new head coach Bill Armstrong who took over for Will Wade (went to NC State) but Armstrong has coached under Wade (at LSU) so the system is similar. Despite playing the tougher schedule, the Cowboys have the better stats across the board ranking 4th nationally in shooting percentage (Murray State ranks 63rd) and 22nd in defensive FG% allowed (Murray ranks 211th). McNeese also shoots 80% from the FT line and they are 3rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (27%). We’ll lay this small number with McNeese State.

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201837/201838 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+125) – Sevilla at Espanyol, Monday at 3:00 ET - Great setup for goals here.  Sevilla is off a 1-0 win but this low-scoring battle was on the heels of 5 straight games (and 8 of the last 9) totaling 3 or more goals!  Those 8 matches averaged 3.8 goals per game and this is a club that will not back down on the road either.  The situation is ideal for goals as Espanyol is off a rare home shutout loss.  Espanyol had averaged scoring 1.8 goals in the 4 home matches prior to that one.  The hosts will be putting extra emphasis on the attack here as a result and we expect solid success for them in that regard.  The issue for Espanyol is in protecting their own goal as they have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of the last 10 matches.  The last 7 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3.1 goals.  Another item of note is that Sevilla will be without a starting defender, Jose Angel Carmona, as he is suspended for this one.  Our computer math model shows 2-1 as the most likely result here and a 2-2 draw also is not far behind on the prediction model. This is another reason we are looking for 3 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact that solid plus money is available on the Over 2.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here for a Top Game.

#685 ASA PLAY ON Utah State -7.5 over Davidson, Sunday at 9 PM ET - Utah State is currently rated as the best team in the Mountain West and 39th in the country per KenPom. That’s nearly 30 spots higher than last year’s team that went 26-8 and made the NCAA tourney. The Aggies have a number of key players back from that team including 4 of their top 6 players. They are 5-0 on the season with all double digit wins with the exception of their 3 point win over a very good VCU team. How good was that win? The only other loss VCU has this season was @ NC State (ranked 19th per KenPom) by just 6 points in a game where the Wolfpack made 15 more FT’s. Davidson is also 5-0 but they have yet to face a top 100 team. They are coming off a win here in Charleston on Friday over Boston College. BC shot only 14% from 3 in that game, made only 57% of their FT’s and turned the ball over on 24% of their possessions. The Wildcats lost most the key players off their 2024 roster returning only 1 starter (4 new starters are all transfers) and a few lightly used reserves. They are due for big time regression from 3 point land both offensively and defensively. They currently have made 42% of their 3’s (14th in the country) on the season while limiting opponents to 23% (7th) from beyond the arc. The Cats are facing a USU offense here that ranks 13th in FG% and is averaging 88 PPG. The Aggies should control the boards vs Davidson, who is a poor rebounding team and USU creates turnovers at almost a 22% rate. Not great for a Davidson offense that ranks 248th in offensive turnover percentage. We like USU by double digits.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -9.5 at Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - I hate to be a ‘square’ today but even they win at times so give us a ticket on the Lakers -9.5 at Utah. We are betting a premium price here but the rest trends outweigh the number. The Lakers fall into a 61-24 ATS trend as they have been off since November 18th against this same Jazz team. The Lakers won the most recent meeting by 14-points and have won 5 of the last six against the Jazz. We know L.A. should get plenty of good looks in this game and will knock down shots with their #1 rated team FG% at 51.1%. The reason we know this is because the Jazz are 26th in FG% defense allowing 48.9%. Utah will have a tough time scoring with an offense that ranks 21st in oEFF scoring 1.149-points per possession, going up against a Lakers D that is 9th in dEFF. The Lakers should also have an easier time covering double-digits against a Jazz team that has allowed 140 or more points in 3 straight and 132 or more in four in a row. With 3+ days rest we like the Lakers big in this one.

#260 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints -1.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The betting markets indicate that the Saints are the play in this NFC South showdown. The tickets are on the Falcons, the money is on the Saints. The Falcons are in a tough scheduling situation here as they played two weeks ago and went into OT only to lose to the Colts. Last week they were home against the Panthers and lost again…in overtime and the defense has played 179 snaps in the last two games. That’s not ideal when they’ve played 6 straight weeks (1-5 SU). Atlanta lost starting QB Penix to a knee injury and will also be without, arguably, the best WR in the NFL this season, Drake London. Sure, Kirk Cousins is an experienced quarterback, but he didn’t play well in his start against the Dolphins (lost and produced just 10-points) 21/31 for 173 passing yards. As for the Saints, they are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. The change at QB for the Saints has been an upgrade with Tyler Shough coming off a solid game against the Panthers two weeks ago in a 17-7 road win. Shough was 19/27 for 282 yards, 2 TD’s and a 128 passer rating. New Orleans just 1-5 SU in their last six games but all four losses came against teams leading their division with a combined 30-11 SU record. We like the Saints to win this by more than a FG.

#256 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Jags are vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 6-4 on the season yet their point differential is only +14 which is 13th in the NFL. Their stats aren’t great and actually fairly comparable to this 3-7 Arizona team. The Jags are +3 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the season. The Cards are +0 YPG and -0.1 YPP on the year. The Cards have played a very tough schedule and they’ve been competitive for the most part with 5 of their 7 losses coming by 4 points or less. 6 of their last 8 games have come against San Francisco (twice), Seattle (twice), Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Dallas. We’re getting some line value here because Arizona is off back to back blowouts @ Seattle and last week here vs the Niners. Their loss to SF last Sunday we very deceiving as they lost by 19 points, yet outgained the Niners by over 200 yards and by +1.5 YPP. Their other 4 home games were all decided by 5 points or less. The Arizona offense has been much better since veteran Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. He already had over 1,500 yards passing (in 5 starts) and they are averaging 24 PPG (20 PPG prior to Brissett taking over). Since he took over they have outgained 4 of their 5 opponents including Indy, Green Bay, San Fran, and Dallas. Can’t trust Jacksonville laying points on the road. They are 2-2 away from home with losses @ Cincinnati and @ Houston and wins @ San Francisco by 5 (Jax had punt return for TD) and @ Las Vegas by 1. They were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of their 4 road games. The Jags are coming off a blowout home win over the Chargers (also giving up some value here) and they have 2 division games on deck so a possible flat spot. Jacksonville was favored by only 1 point @ Las Vegas just a few weeks ago (won in OT) and now favored by a full FG @ Arizona who is better than the Raiders (Arizona 21st overall DVOA and Las Vegas 29th). This has upset written all over it.