ASA NHL Under 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights (May 8, 2025) - Last Game (May 6, 2025): Edmonton won 4-2, but Edmonton’s two late third-period goals and an empty-netter inflated the score. Shots were low (Edmonton: 28, Vegas: 17), suggesting limited scoring chances. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Oilers have been a strong road Under team all season long with a 19-26 record, the Knights at home are Under in 24 of 45 at home this season. When Pickard (Oilers) and Hill (Knights) have started in goal this season they are a combined 43-49-1 Under on the season. Both teams ranked top 10 in Shots on Goal allowed this season and will solid goaltending tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to7 or more total goals.

#903 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - A lot of edges for the Dodgers here and that is why we are willing to lay this price.  The Dodgers Yamamoto is off to a phenomenal start this season after going a solid 7-2 with 3.00 ERA last season as well.  This season he has been dominant and this includes even when facing tougher lineups and also even when on the road.  In fact, he has a 0.38 ERA in his four road starts this season.  The Diamondbacks hitters (other than Marte 2-4) that have experience against him have gone a combined 1 for 20 against him!  The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a number of hitters that have enjoyed great success against Diamondbacks starter Pfaadt.  In fact, LA has 7 hitters that have had at least 6 at bats against him and hit at least .333 against him!  5 of those guys are hitting .364 or better against Pfaadt.  The Diamondbacks bullpen (4.66 ERA) has been struggling this season and the Dodgers (15-6 record) rate the bullpen edge as well in this match-up.  Also, Arizona has been slumping overall and this includes losing 6 of the last 8 home games!  The Dodgers have not only won 9 of 11, most of those wins have seen them score at least 7 runs.  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Wednesday! 

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

UEFA Europa League: #224409/224410 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-115) in Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao, Thursday at 3 pm ET – The 1st Leg was a 3-0 rout in favor of Manchester United and now they will simply look to defend home pitch with a very strong defensive effort and stifle any hopes that Athletic Bilbao has of a dramatic comeback in this 2nd Leg match-up.  That appears likely as Athletic Bilbao has been struggling for goals of late and Manchester United does not need to score any more goals to advance.  On the contrary, their emphasis will simply be to play a defensive style that does not leave them vulnerable at the back for any attacking from the visitors.   Athletic Bilbao has scored a total of only 7 goals in the last 10 matches!  Also, if you take out the two multi-goal games they had in that run, they scored a total of only 2 goals in the other 8 matches!  All the pressure is on them to make up for the deficit and this club is simply struggling too much to generate goals so it is next to impossible to expect much from them here.  The result could very well be a boring grinder of a game here as the end result.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling only 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one as Manchester United will be taking a defense-first approach at home and Athletic Bilbao's struggles on the attack continue. 

ASA NHL Dallas Stars -105 vs. Winnipeg Jets – 9:30pm ET May 7, 2025 - The Stars are riding momentum from a Game 7 upset over Colorado, led by Mikko Rantanen’s third-period hat trick (five goals, seven assists in Round 1). Jake Oettinger (2.85 GAA, .911 save percentage) outshines Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (3.85 GAA, .830 save percentage), who struggled in Round 1. Dallas’ depth (21 goals in seven games) and 22% power play exploit Winnipeg’s defensive lapses (27 goals allowed). Despite Winnipeg’s home strength, the Stars’ form makes them the better bet.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

Champions League #224213 ASA PLAY ON Arsenal +0.5 (-130) over Paris Saint-Germain, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Arsenal to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for Arsenal. We do expect the outright win as Arsenal is down 1-0 after the 1st Leg but they know they need to unleash a more aggressive attack here and, when they do, this is when this club is at its most dangerous! The first leg was a surprising 1-0 road win for Paris Saint-Germain as Arsenal struggled. Now they respond on the road and, keep in mind, PSG is okay with a draw here since they have the 1-0 edge already based on the first leg result. That means if this match is tied up at 1-1 or 2-2 there will be no extra emphasis on attacking for PSG. They will be content with a draw knowing that is all they need to advance. Give credit to PSG for surprisingly shutting down Arsenal in London but now you will see the true version of the Gunners coming out and firing away in this one! Arsenal has an unbeaten run - win or draw - going strong on the road with 7 straight away matches earning at least a draw! The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw again in this one! We will take Arsenal on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

#953 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants +130 over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - The Giants are offering excellent underdog line value here.  Robbie Ray gets the start for San Francisco and he has been tough to hit all season long.  What was holding him back earlier this season was command issues as he was walking too many.  Yet he still has managed a 4-0 record (and 3.05 ERA) thus far on the season and the key for us is he now seems to have the command issues in check.  In his last two starts, Ray has gone 7 innings in each and he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 7 hits in 14 innings in those 2 starts while striking out 16 and walking only 3 batters!  He is opposed by Ben Brown and the Cubs hurler is winless with an 8.79 ERA in his 4 home appearances (3 starts).  The Cubs have lost 3 of 4 including last night's 14-5 loss where they rallied to tie the game in the 9th but then gave up 9 runs in the top of the 11th!  Another disheartening home loss for Chicago while San Francisco has won 4 of 5 overall plus has a big bullpen edge here.  The Giants bullpen is 12-4 with a 2.53 ERA this season while the Cubs pen is 6-8 with a 4.71 ERA this season.  We are going with the money line on the road underdog in this one and we expect a solid upset win Wednesday afternoon!

#952 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -175 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 1:15 PM ET - A lot of edges for the Cardinals here and that is why we are willing to lay this price but we also keep our rating low to keep the total risk factor reasonable.  St Louis is 14-6 at home this season and have one of the strongest home/road dichotomies in the league as the home team is 27-10 in Cardinals games this season.  St Louis has Sonny Gray going and he will bounce back against a struggling Pirates lineup here after a rare tougher home outing last week.  He has been pitching well overall this season, including already coming up with a solid outing versus Pittsburgh.  Also, he went 9-5 with a 2.79 ERA in home starts for the Cardinals last season.  The Pirates have lost 6 straight games overall and Mitch Keller, 1-3 this season, takes the mound for Pittsburgh here.  Keller had a strong start versus St Louis earlier this season but looking at his 4 starts since then his strikeout numbers are down plus, other than the start versus the Cards, he allowed 18 earned runs in 25 and 2/3 innings in his other 5 starts since the beginning of April.  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Wednesday! 

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The winds will be light but are expected to be out of the north and it is a rather cool evening expected at Wrigley Field for this one. Justin Verlander doesn't have great season numbers but he is flying under the radar right now because he has been pitching much better of late. Verlander has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs on just 11 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He has gone a solid 6 innings in all 3 outings.  The Cubs Colin Rea is having a solid season including going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his 4 starts since moving into the rotation.  Yesterday's game finished 9-2 but we don't expect such success for the Cubs at the plate as Verlander has round into strong form now.  As for the Giants, they have now averaged only 2.3 runs scored in the last 7 road games as their hitting woes continue away from  home.  The Cubs had scored an average of only 3 runs in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday's big day at the plate.  That low-scoring trending at home is likely to resume here per all of the above.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

ASAwins NHL Washington Capitals (+123) vs. Carolina Hurricanes – 7pm ET May 6, 2025 - The Washington Capitals face the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series at Capital One Arena. As the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals are riding high after defeating the Montreal Canadiens in five games in Round 1. The Hurricanes, the No. 2 seed in the Metropolitan Division, advanced past the New Jersey Devils but face a tough challenge on the road against a Washington team that thrives at home. The Capitals posted a 26-9-8 record at home during the regular season. Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson was a brick wall at home in Round 1, stopping 86 of 90 shots for a .956 save percentage across three games. He allowed two goals or fewer in each contest, including a 33-save effort in Game 1 and a 25-save performance in Game 2, where he shut down Montreal’s third-period push. Thompson’s 4.7 goals saved above expected in the series highlight his elite play, which is crucial against Carolina’s high-octane offense (3.8 goals per game in their last 10 regular-season games). Alex Ovechkin remains Washington’s offensive cornerstone, particularly at home. He scored in both regular-season games against Carolina this year and has three goals in his last three games against them. In Round 1, Ovechkin netted two goals in Game 1, including the overtime winner, and averaged 3.68 shots on goal per game during the regular season. Washington’s defense was stellar in Round 1, allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances (24) of any team. Their expected goals against rate was under 44% in five-on-five play, showcasing a structure that can neutralize Carolina’s puck-possession game. While Carolina’s penalty kill was perfect in Round 1, Washington’s power play, powered by Ovechkin, scored three times against Montreal and could capitalize on any Hurricanes infractions. The Hurricanes struggled on the road during the regular season, posting a 16-24-1 record in their last regular season away games. Carolina’s goaltending is also uncertain, with Frederik Andersen’s status unclear after an injury in Round 1. If backup Pyotr Kochetkov starts, his .884 save percentage against Washington this season could be exploited. This a great spot to ‘capitalize’ on a live home underdog!

#901 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-165) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET -  We are going with the Dodgers again today on Tuesday after they won 7 to 4 yesterday for us here in this spot.  As we mentioned here yesterday, the Dodgers entered this series off a loss but this was on the heels of a 7-game winning streak in which LA averaged scoring 9 runs per game!  This team has such a potent lineup.  Miami, on the other hand, has now lost 8 of 9 games and scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in those 8 losses.  The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin just faced the Marlins and it was his first start of this season and he struck out 9 in 6 innings in a very solid 6-inning effort.  We expect another one today while Miami counters with the struggling Cal Quantrill as he has been charged with 18 earned runs on 26 hits over 17 and 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts. The way this LA lineup is going - including pounding Quantrill when these teams matched up last week - this one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!

Champions League #224209 ASA PLAY ON Barcelona Pick'em (-110) over Inter Milan, Tuesday at 3 ET - We expect Barcelona to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Barcelona just has too much firepower for Inter Milan.  The first leg was a surprising 3-3 draw as Inter Milan had not been scoring so well so to see them get 3 on the road was a surprise.  There is a reason that Barcelona is favored here even though they are on the road.  Their attacking firepower is the key.  Give credit to Inter Milan for surprising goal-scoring success at Barcelona but also note that, prior to that one, Barcelona was allowing an average of only 1 goal last 10 games.  Inter Milan, other than the 3-3 draw versus Barcelona, has scored a total of only 1 goal in their other 4 recent matches since mid-April!  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Barcelona on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201289/201290 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – Genoa vs AC Milan, Monday at 2:45 ET - AC Milan switched to a 3-4-3 formation and we like what we are seeing from them on the attack.  However, this can lead a team vulnerable to counterattacks and with an eye on the Coppa Italia action and Genoa able to take risks as they are playing for pride at this point, we should see a rather wide-open affair here. Genoa will be willing to attack on the counter-attack and note that the first meeting  this season was 0-0 but this followed AC Milan scoring in 12 straight meetings and averaging scoring 2 goals per match in those 12 matches! AC Milan also enters this game having scored 2 goals per game over their last 9 games in Coppa Italia and Serie A action. Genoa was shutout in the most recent home game but scored in each of the last 7 at home prior to that and averaged 1.4 goals in those games. With no true pressure on either side, we like a wide-open affair here to lead to at least 3 goals. We will take the over here. 

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

#910 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-156) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on San Francisco on Friday, the Rockies (stop the presses!) were off B2B wins and it was the first time Colorado had won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  As we stated Friday (winner on SF), the odds certainly favored that Colorado's losing ways would quickly resume.  Sure enough, San Francisco beat them 4-0 Friday and 6-3 Saturday.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to Thursday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants entered Friday's game on a 3-game losing streak which was their longest losing streak since mid-September.  San Francisco had been on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favored that they would get back to winning ways and they have done just that with the wins both Friday and Saturday.  Now Sunday looks like another great spot for the Giants to roll!  German Marquez starts for the Rockies and opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .369 batting average this season!  He is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA this season!  The Giants counter with Logan Webb here and he is 3-2 this season and has a 2.83 ERA plus he has not allowed any earned runs in his 13 innings over 2 home starts this season.  Last season Webb went 7-5 at home with a 2.83 ERA and the year before he had a 2.26 ERA at home.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here even though it is still a bit on the pricier side.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Some rain in the Pittsburgh area which is part of the reason we waited on releasing this selection for Saturday but it does look like the heavier showers will be out of the area before game time for this one and we should be good to go with just some light rain expected throughout this one.  This match-up involves two starting pitchers very likely to struggle here.  Randy Vasquez has had issues all season with command and has 19 walks in 27 and 1/3 innings!  Also, he was able to escape some jams and avoid big damage earlier this season but it looks like his luck is running out!  Vasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts!  Also, he has allowed 17 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He also has only 7 strikeouts in 21 innings this month!  As for Pirates starter Bailey Falter, he went 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in April.  Falter is supported by a mediocre Pirates bullpen.  The San Diego bullpen has been strong this season but they will be called upon too early in this one as the struggles of Vasquez continue.  The Pirates were shutout once in the last 11 games but have averaged scoring 4 runs in the other 10 games.  The trouble for Pittsburgh is they have allowed 7.7 runs per game in the last 6 games!  San Diego is going to take advantage of facing Falter and a faltering bullpen!  The Padres won yesterday's game 9-4 and now have won 3 straight games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in this 3-game winning streak!  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

English Premier League (EPL) #200073/200074 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-105) – Everton vs Ipswich Town, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The last meeting was 2-0 when Ipswich Town hosted Everton earlier this season. Ipswich Town enters this match off B2B losses in which they were shutout each time.  Everton has had 8 straight matches total 2 or less goals! This one takes that low-scoring run to 9 in a row as Everton will merely look to get an early lead and then sit on it. They are the superior club and will frustrate Ipswich Town throughout this match. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one. 

#914 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Rockies (stop the presses!) are off B2B wins!  This is the first time Colorado has won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to yesterday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants are on a 3-game losing streak which, ironically, is also their first such streak since mid-September last season.  Since then, San Francisco was on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favor that they get back to winning ways here at home Friday.  Senzatela starts for the Rockies and opponents are hitting an unheard of .385 against him this season!  He has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts.  The Giants counter with Robbie Ray here and he is 3-0 this season and has a 3.73 ERA.  Also, he is holding opponents to a .223 batting average this season and, in his 7 starts last season with Giants, he held opponents to a .189 batting average.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NHL St. Louis Blues -115 vs. Winnipeg Jets 8pm ET - In Game 6, the St. Louis Blues are primed to defeat the Winnipeg Jets and force a Game 7. The Blues dominated both home games, outscoring the Jets 12-3, and now face a Jets team missing captain Mark Scheifele, injured in Game 5. Scheifele’s absence (4 goals, 2 assists in playoffs) weakens Winnipeg’s offense. Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, with a 10-4-1 record, .909 save percentage, and 2.26 GAA over his last 15 starts, has been stellar, allowing just 3 goals on 42 shots in Games 3 and 4. Back the Blues to extend the series.

#923 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers as the last time Cannon "started" and went 7 and 2/3 innings but it was after an "opener" pitched the first inning.  Great set up here. Astros are off a loss and have gone 9-1 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The White Sox are off a rare win.  Chicago is only 8-23 this season and a big reason for that is they can not sustain any winning form.  The White Sox are 1-6 this season when entering a game off a win.  Framber Valdez starts for Houston and has inflated numbers the last 4 starts simply because of one bad outing.  In the other 3 starts Valdez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 20 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He is capable of dominating the light-hitting White Sox.  Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon here and he has had one scoreless outing the last 5 outings but he allowed 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings in the other 4 recent outings.  White Sox are 5-17 this season against teams that currently have a winning record while the Astros are 8-4 this season against teams that currently have a losing record.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

Premier League #200070 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 goals (+110) over Wolverhampton, Friday at 3 ET - Both clubs are hot but the key here is Wolverhampton has played a number of weaker teams consecutively.  Not only is Manchester City much higher in the standings and the much stronger team overall, their recent wins have included a number of victories over strong opponents.  City is at home for this one and they have impressively adjusted well to being without Haaland and their defensive play has been much stronger recently.  Manchester City is on a legitimate heater and Wolverhampton will struggle to keep up here as they finally face a more formidable foe after winning a stretch of matches over weak opponents.  The last 4 meetings with City as the host were all wins for Manchester City and the aggregate score of those matches was 13-2. We will take Manchester City on the goal line in this one at -1.5 goals.

ASA NBA play on Pistons -115 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30pm ET - The Detroit Pistons, down 3-2, host the Knicks in an elimination Game 6 tonight (May 1, 2025). New York has won two close games in Detroit (118-116, 94-93) thus far in the series, but we expect that to change tonight. Let’s not forget that in the regular season Detroit won 3 of 4 against the Knicks, with Cade Cunningham averaging 30.8 points. Cunningham’s averaging 26.1 points and 9.1 assists in this series, and the Knicks haven’t found a way to slow him down. The other big edge in favor of the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have the 4th best Rebound % in the playoffs at 52.8 compared to the Knicks at 47.2%. With both teams have an identical EFG% of 50.8%, the team with 2nd chance opportunities holds a big advantage. The Knicks had a solid road record this season and would typically have the advantage with the best player on the floor with Brunson. But Brunson isn’t 100% and the case can be made that Cunningham is the best player in this series. The supporting cast for Detroit (Harris, Hardaway Jr, Duren, Schroder and Beasley) have proven they are not afraid of the big moment (unlike the Bucks young players) and should rise to the occasion at home tonight.

ASA NHL play on Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) vs. Florida Panthers , 7:30pm ET Game 5 - The Tampa Bay Lightning face the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference First Round series, with the Panthers leading 3-1. Despite the series deficit, the Lightning are listed as -110 favorites at home, and we like them to extend the series. The Lightning are in a must-win situation at Amalie Arena, where they are 29-8-4 (70.7% win percentage), outscoring opponents by an average of 3.6 goals to 2.8 per game at home. While they lost Games 1 and 2 at home (6-2 and 2-0), we trust their +34 goal differential at Amalie Arena. In Game 3, the Lightning fired 38 shots on goal, with Jake Guentzel (1 goal, 2 assists) and Nikita Kucherov (3 assists) leading the charge. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34 shots (.971 save percentage), outdueling Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky. Power Play Edge: Tampa Bay’s power play operated at 26.4% during the regular season (4th in NHL), compared to Florida’s 22.1% (11th). In Game 3, the Lightning converted 1 of 3 power-play opportunities, while Florida went 0-for-2. If Tampa Bay draws penalties, their man-advantage unit could be a difference-maker. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 113-game playoff start streak, with a career postseason save percentage of .921. His 33-save performance in Game 3 and ability to handle high-danger chances (14 of 15 high-danger shots stopped) make him a cornerstone for a Game 5 win.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

UEFA Champions League: #224205/224206 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-185) in Barcelona vs Inter Milan, Wednesday at 3 pm ET – Smaller rated play for us as the price is a bit steep here on the over 2.5 but we are very confident in seeing this match-up reach at least the 3-goal mark.  Barcelona is the highest-scoring team in La Liga as the league leaders have scored 89 goals in their 33 games.  Inter Milan is the highest scoring team in Serie A with 72 goals in 34 games.  What this shows you is the incredible goal-scoring capabilities both of these clubs possess.  With Barcelona known for being particularly aggressive under their manager Hansi Flick, we just can not in any way envision this club sitting back in this one.  At home and known for an aggressive approach under Flick, look for Barcelona to set the tone early in this one in terms of style of play.  That style will be aggressive with plenty of attacking and with both clubs also looking for those ideal opportunities on the counter-attack as well.  Look for both clubs to score in a match that eventually ends up at least 2-1 here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one. 

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -125 vs Edmonton Oilers, 10 pm ET - The Los Angeles Kings take on the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of their 2025 NHL Playoffs first-round series at Crypto.com Arena, with the series tied 2-2. We like the Kings tonight, backed by their NHL-best 33-6-4 home record this season (.814 winning percentage). At home, they have a +1.42 goal differential, scoring 3.06 goals per game while allowing just 1.98 (best in the NHL). Goaltending gives the Kings an edge, with Darcy Kuemper posting a 2.02 GAA and .922 save percentage in the regular season (second in the NHL among goalies with 50 starts). He also had two shutouts against the Oilers this year (3-0 on April 5, 5-0 on April 14). Edmonton’s Calvin Pickard, expected in net, has a 2.71 GAA and .900 save percentage, with a .889 save percentage in the playoffs. The Kings went 3-1 against the Oilers in the regular season with a +8 goal differential, and their defense has been solid at home.

ASA NBA play on the LA Clippers -120 at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET Tuesday Game 5 - At first glance this has been a very even series tied 2-2 with 3 of the four games decided by 3-points or less. In reality it hasn’t been as close as you think. The Cavs and Thunder swept their series 4-0 and have the best overall Net Rating in the playoffs. The Clippers are actually 3rd in Net Rating at +9.4 and have the 3rd best EFG% at 55.4%. In comparison, the Nuggets are 14th in NR at -9.4 and have an EFG% of 47.6% which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams. As this series wears on the Nuggets lack of depth becomes a major concern. Denver has four starters averaging over 40-minutes per game and are getting worn out by the Clippers deeper rotations. Denver is 2-3 as a home dog this season with a negative differential of -4.7ppg in that role. Historically the Nuggets are fantastic at home but to end the regular season and this playoff series has seen them go on a 3-14 ATS streak on their home court. There is a reason the Clippers are favored here. Lay it with this L.A. team.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are expected to have Dustin May on the mound here while the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera.  Note that LA's May has been practically unhittable at home with a 0.82 ERA and a .108 batting average against with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two home starts.  The Marlins Cabrera is off to a rough start this season as big hits and some command issues with his pitches have done him in.  Also, all those outings were at home and now he is on the road where he went 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA last season and also 0-7 with a 5.96 ERA the season before that as he has not traveled well!  The Marlins are on a 4-8 slide overall and also have lost 6 of last 9 road games.  Before yesterday's 1-run loss, Miami's last 6 road losses included 5 by a multi-run margin.  In fact those 5 losses were by an average margin of 7 runs!  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 of last 6 road games and are a solid 12-3 at home on the season!  Los Angeles has the better bullpen numbers and also ranks 4th in the majors for slugging percentage while Miami ranks in the middle of the pack.  The Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of last 5 games while Marlins averaged 3.5 runs per game last 4 games before the 7-6 loss yesterday.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one looks like a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on OVER 210.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET The Cavs have put up 121, 121 and 124 points in the three games of this series against the Heat and they’ve done that without Garland for one game and Donovan Mitchell scoring just 13 points. Clearly the Heat just don’t match up with the Cavs and doesn’t have any answers on how to slow them down. Cleveland has an Offensive Rating of 134.1 against Miami and an EFG% of 61.5%, both best of all playoff teams. Those numbers aren’t overly shocking as the Cavs ranked #1 in both of those stat categories during the regular season too. The Heat produced 100 and 112 in the first two games of this series, then hit just 42% from the field in Game 3 and scored just 87-points. It’s unlikely that the Heat score just 23 or less points in four quarters again like they did last time out. In all 6 meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 211 or more points. Bet Over.

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -135 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, 7pm ET We like the Panthers off their game 3 home loss to the Lightning. Florida’s 27-13-2 home record, 40-28 mark as favorites, and superior performance against winning teams give them the edge. They’ve outshot Tampa Bay 74-63 in the series, while Sergei Bobrovsky’s .936 SV% (2.53 GAA) outshines Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .892 SV% (2.67 GAA). Tampa Bay’s 19-23 road record and 7-14 mark as underdogs highlight their struggles. Florida’s depth, led by Verhaeghe and Tkachuk, and strong penalty kill make them the bet to take a 3-1 series lead.

Rotation #201241/201242 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Verona vs Cagliari, Monday at 2:45 ET -Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and this has been further complicated by some health and suspension issues impacting this match. Cagliari is missing their top scorer due to suspension and it looks like Verona will continue to be without theirs as well. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two has totaled 2 or less goals. 5 straight Verona matches (and 12 of 15) have totaled 2 or less goals. We expect that run reaches 6 straight here! We will take the under here.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers (-129) vs. Los Angeles Kings (Game 4, 9:30pm ET Sunday, April 27) - Edmonton’s 26-13-3 home record (62.6% win rate) this season follows a 28-9-4 mark last year, and their Game 3 rally (four third-period goals) shows their resilience after dropping the first two games in LA. The Oilers’ 5-on-5 play is a major advantage, outpacing the Kings with a 51.96% Corsi For percentage and 59.36% high-danger chance percentage in the series, including 31-14 scoring chances when Connor McDavid (12 points in series) faces LA’s top lines. Despite a dismal 0-for-12 power play (0%), Edmonton’s regular-season 26.3% power-play rate (4th in NHL) should capitalize on LA’s penalty kill, which allowed 9 power-play goals in 20 chances (55%) in last year’s playoffs. The Kings, with a 17-19-5 road record and -15 goal differential away from home, struggle to match Edmonton’s pace, despite Darcy Kuemper’s stellar 2.02 GAA and .922 SV%. Kuemper faces Edmonton’s top-three rush offense (3.16 GF/G, 11th), which generated 36 shots in Game 3. LA’s 5-for-10 power-play success (50%) is potent, but their 27% fewer road goals and 0-12 penalty-kill chances in Game 3 suggest vulnerabilities. Betting trends favor Edmonton: they’re 7-4 in their last 11 home playoff games, while LA is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road playoff underdog spots.

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

#979/980 ASA PLAY ON OVER 8.5 (+100) in San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday @ 4:10 ET - There has not been much scoring in the first two games of this series but the total today is set at 8.5 runs with good reason.  Zach Littell has lost 6 straight starts dating back to last season.  The Rays hurler is 0-5 this season with a 5.28 ERA and he has given up 7 homers in just 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Giving up an average of 1 long ball nearly every 2 innings is certainly not a good sign!  As for the San Diego starter, Randy Vasquez is quite the story early this season in terms of statistical anomaly.  He has a respectable 3.97 ERA in his 5 starts this season but it is a miracle his ERA is that low.  He has 17 walks against only 9 strikeouts in his 22 and 2/3 innings on the season.  Last season opponents hit .304 against him and Vasquez is showing signs now of unraveling this season too as well.  After giving up 7 hits in 5 innings but avoiding major damage 2 starts ago, the last start finally saw Vasquez get hammered.  He allowed 6 earned runs in a start lasting just 2 innings at Detroit.  With 4 straight wins and scoring 19 runs in those games, the Rays' confidence is up.  Even though the Padres have suddenly struggled, they entered this series with a 12-1 record at home on the season and averaged 5 runs per game at home.  San Diego's lineup takes advantage of facing Littell here and gets rolling again early in this one.  Both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here and even though two good bullpens are involved in this one, the Padres bullpen in particular has already seen a lot of work in the first two games of this series and that catches up with them here. Over gets the call in this one!  

ASA NHL play: Over 6 Goals in Dallas  Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche (Game 4, Saturday 9:30pm ET) - Dallas (3.35 GPG, 3rd) and Colorado (3.33 GPG, 6th) are offensive powerhouses, averaging 30.8 and 29.9 shots per game, respectively. Five of their last six meetings this season (including playoffs) have finished with 6 or more goals. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger (2.67 GAA, .904 SV% in series) and Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood (2.34 GAA, .906 SV% in series) face high shot volumes (27-28 per game). Both teams’ potent power plays (Colorado 24.79%, Dallas 22.5% vs. opponent) and Colorado’s home scoring (3.45 GPG) support a high-scoring game. Trends show 5-1 Over in head-to-head matchups and 58% Over in Colorado’s home playoff games since 2022.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

#905 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -110 over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Phillies have struggled on the road this season and also overall right now as they have lost 5 straight games!  However, Philadelphia is off a tough series against the Mets and then having lost the series opener to the Cubs in shutout fashion yesterday.  Now, on Saturday, the perfect bounce back spot.  Philadelphia has Jesus Luzardo on the mound.  The lefty has been fantastic this season with a 2.08 ERA in his five starts and a 2-0 record and 36 strikeouts in his 30 innings on the hill.  He will be opposed by the Cubs Ben Brown in this one.  Brown is an inexperienced hurler still adjusting to the MLB level.  Last season he went 0-3 with a 5.01 ERA in his 6 day game appearances and this season he is already winless with a 6.75 ERA in his two day games starts this season.  This is the ideal spot for the Phillies to get back on track and we are taking advantage of the corresponding line value with this line around a pick'em.

#925 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers +122 over San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Rangers are offering strong underdog value here.  We get them at plus money here because the Giants are at home and having a strong season and we take advantage of the pitching edge here.  Both pitchers, Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle have a 3-0 record on the season.  However,  Ray has walked 17 batters in 19 innings this month plus he is coming off B2B outings in which he has struggled with 6 earned runs on 8 walks and 11 hits (19 baserunners) in just 9 innings!  Compare this to Mahle and there is no comparison!  Mahle is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA this month and has held opponents to an .098 batting average in these 4 starts!  Just 8 hits allowed in 25 innings and a reasonable 8 walks over that stretch, Mahle has been in incredible form.  Also, with the 2-0 loss to the Rangers yesterday, the Giants have dropped to just 9-9 last 18 games.  The Rangers have won 6 of 10 games overall.  Also, in all games started by Mahle, the Rangers were 4-0 this season until they lost his most recent start 1-0 to the Dodgers.  Unlike that Mahle start, the Rangers should have no trouble giving decent run support for him here as Ray's struggles continue on the mound.  Take the road underdog in this one.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

NHL play on: Ottawa Senators -107 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting on the Ottawa Senators to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 on Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre, with the Sens a slight favorite. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, Ottawa has been the better team overall, outshooting Toronto 61-45 across the first two games. The Senators also swept the regular-season series 3-0, outscoring Toronto 7-3. Ottawa’s underlying numbers are strong—they’ve led the playoffs with 148 shot attempts through two games and hold edges in scoring chances, expected goals, and high-danger chances, even if they haven’t converted enough. At home, where they went 27-11-3 this season, the Sens should capitalize on their territorial dominance. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 33-12-2 record when outshot this season (47 times) is impressive, but their 5-on-5 play has been underwhelming, outscoring Ottawa just 4-3 in that situation despite a 9-4 overall edge. With Ottawa’s physicality, home crowd energy, and regular-season success against the Leafs, I expect a Sens win to get back into the series.

Spanish La Liga: #201997/201998 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-120) – Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano, Thursday at 3:30 ET - Atletico Madrid has conceded only 14 goals in their 16 home games in La Liga action this season!   Rayo Vallecano has conceded only 15 goals in 16 road games this season!  Both of those solid defensive statistics rank among the best in the league this season!  We see this one struggling to see much goal-mouth action.  Rayo Vallecano allowed 3 goals in the most recent road game and Atletico Madrid allowed 2 goals in the most recent home game.  The point is that both clubs will likely have defensive intensity dialed up for this one after unusual results in their most recent road / home games, respectively.  Their first meeting this season was a rather drab 1-1 draw and we expect a similar result here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -130 vs. Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Wednesday, 10pm ET - LA led 4-0 in Game 1 but let Edmonton tie it at 4-4 in the 3rd before winning 5-4. That should serve as a wakeup call for the Kings who dominated 2 full periods before the late collapse. The Kings have the NHL’s second-best defense (203 goals allowed) and a 32-6-4 home record, allowing just 1.98 goals per game. Darcy Kuemper’s elite 2.02 GAA and .922 SV% outmatch Stuart Skinner’s 2.81 GAA and .896 SV%, and LA has won 4 of 5 matchups this season, including two shutouts. LA is on an 18-4 run right now and we’ll back them again in Game 2.

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON OVER 9.5 (+100) in Athletics vs Rangers, Wednesday @ 10:05 ET - The Athletics temporary home this season in Sacramento continues to play out as a hitters paradise.  Texas won yesterday's game 8-5 and we have seen quite a few high-scoring games here already this season.  Athletics starter JP Sears has already seen how unforgiving this park can be as he struggled in his lone home start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings and the damage could have been even worse.  He will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers here.   The Texas hurler is 0-3 in his 4 MLB road starts and the young hurler has particularly struggled in his first two road starts this season with 9 earned runs allowed in 6 innings of work!  Texas has had one low-scoring game on the road last 6 games but their other 5 recent road games have averaged 11 runs apiece and we expect a similar result here.  Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been great this season either.  Over gets the call here!

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA Tampa Bay Lightning -115 vs. Florida Panthers Game 1 Tuesday, 8:30pm ET - Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending edge, and home-ice advantage give them the upper hand in this series opener. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game this season, driven by Nikita Kucherov (121 points), Brayden Point (42 goals), and Jake Guentzel (41 goals), while their five-on-five GF/60 of 2.79 ranked fourth league-wide. Since February 1, they’ve allowed just 2.40 goals per game, sixth-fewest in the NHL. Florida, the defending champs, averaged 3.00 goals per game (15th) but underperformed by 29 goals based on expected metrics, indicating finishing issuies. They allowed 2.72 goals per game (seventh-fewest), but their Net Rating is only two goals better than Tampa’s, the tightest margin of any first-round series. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) is a key advantage for Tampa, especially at home, where he’s posted a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. He ranks second in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five, ideal against Florida’s low-danger shot volume (first in LDSF/60). Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid but not elite, and Florida’s forecheck, while the league’s best, may struggle against Tampa’s improved puck-moving defensemen like Victor Hedman and Nick Perbix. Florida’s health is a concern: Matthew Tkachuk (groin) hasn’t played since February 8, Aaron Ekblad is suspended for Games 1 and 2, and Aleksander Barkov is recovering from an upper-body injury. Tampa, meanwhile, is fully healthy and riding a 20-6-5 streak since January 30, with 29 home wins this season, second-most in the East. Tampa’s top-five power play (27.4% since March 1) could exploit Florida’s penalty-prone style—they’re the most penalized team in the NHL. We like the Lightning as a low money-line favorite here.

#906 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -135 over St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - Make sure you select ACTION on the pitchers when you place this bet.  The Braves are going with a bullpen game and sometimes managers change their mind about who will open up a bullpen game.  The Braves bullpen has improved as the season has gone on and, overall, this team is red-hot!  Atlanta has won 4 straight games and they are 7-2 at home this season!  Contrast this with a Cardinals team that has lost 5 straight games and is 1-10 on the road this season!  Speaking of road struggles, that has been something Andre Pallante has experienced as well, he is winless with a 5.23 ERA in his two road starts this season.  Last season he went 2-3 on the road and the year before that he had a 3-1 record but a 6.42 ERA on the road working exclusively out of the bullpen and making 31 appearances on the road.  Now he faces a Braves team that has been slugging at the plate.  Over the last 15 days no team has more homers (23) than the Braves and Atlanta also has the #2 slugging percentage in the majors over this span!  Also, over the past week the Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.48 ERA which ranks 4th in the NL.  Their bullpen game will get it done here against a Cardinals team that ranks in the bottom half of the majors for slugging percentage on the road with a .343 mark.  All the edges are pointing one way in this one!  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one as everything is set up well here for a dominating win for the hosts Tuesday! 

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

ASA NHL play on Los Angeles Kings -121 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - The Kings finished the 2024-25 regular season with an NHL-best 31-6-4 home record, boasting a .825 points percentage and allowing just 2.02 goals per game at home. Their home goal differential is impressive, with a stout defense ranked second in the league, conceding only 2.48 goals per game overall. This defensive strength is a key advantage against Edmonton’s potent offense, which averaged 3.16 goals per game overall, 3.05 GF/GP on the road. Darcy Kuemper anchors the Kings’ crease with an elite 31-11-7 record, a 2.02 GAA (second in the NHL), and a .921 save percentage across 50 appearances. At home, Kuemper is even better, posting a 20-3-2 record with a 1.67 GAA and .935 save percentage. He dominated Edmonton this season, going 3-1 with a 1.33 GAA and .952 save percentage, allowing just four goals on 100 shots. In contrast, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner struggled, finishing 26-18-4 with a 2.81 GAA and .896 save percentage. Skinner’s .894 save percentage against the Kings this season and weaker playoff leash make him a liability. The Kings also hold a 3-1 season series edge, including a 3-0 shutout and a 5-0 rout in April, showcasing their ability to stifle Edmonton’s stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom are battling injury concerns. With Edmonton missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm and possibly others, the Kings’ depth and physicality should shine. Los Angeles’ 81.8% penalty kill (11th in the NHL) can neutralize Edmonton’s 24.8% power play, further tilting the ice. We like the Kings to win Game 1 and set the tone for the series.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Detroit Pistons at NY Knicks, 7:30 pm ET - The Knicks and Pistons have met four times in the 2024-25 regular season, averaging 230.5 combined points per game. Their most recent clash, Game 1 of their playoff series, ended with a 123-112 Knicks win, totaling 235 points. Even their lowest-scoring matchup this year hit 221 points (115-106), a Pistons win on April 10th. Over their last ten head-to-head games, they’ve gone over 220 points 100% of the time, with one of the two teams scoring 117 or more points in 8 of ten. In Game 1 of this series, the Knicks offense looked like the unit that ranked 5th in Offensive Net Rating this season (117.3), on 53% shooting overall and 38% from Deep. A healthy Jalen Brunson (34 points in Game 1) has a massive impact on the Knicks offense and Karl-Anthony Towns (23 points, 11 rebounds) is also capable of putting up huge numbers. Detroit, meanwhile, has been no slouch offensively, averaging 112 PPG over their last ten games of the regular season. Cade Cunningham (21 points, 12 assists in Game 1) and Tobias Harris (25 points) can keep pace versus a Knicks team that is not as good defensively as past Thibodeau coached teams. The Pistons scored 112 in the opener of this series and that was with a 0-21 drought against the Knicks in the 4th quarter. Both teams should play at a decent pace again (99 possessions each in G1), and with another game at 56.4 EFG% or better we should see a total in the mid-220’s. Our betting model is projecting 224.3 total points.

#954 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -115 over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Phillies have struggled on the road this season and their bullpen has turned into a borderline dumpster fire.  Philadelphia's bullpen ERA has rocketed up to a 5.81 ERA and only the Nationals have a higher bullpen ERA so far this season.  The Mets, on the other hand, have had one of the best bullpens in the league so far this season with a 5-1 record and 2.27 ERA and a 78% save conversion rate!  In terms of the starting pitching match-up here, the Phillies Aaron Nola has not been the same pitcher on the road as he has been at home in recent years.  Also, he is off to an overall rough start this season as well.  Nola is 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA in his 4 starts this season.  Also, opponents are hitting .303 against Nola this season and now he runs into a red hot Mets team that is 9-1 on the season in home games and just delivered a 4-0 series sweep over the Cardinals.  Mets starter Tylor Megill continues to be very strong at home.  In 2023 he went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA here and in 2024 he had a 3.56 ERA here and now in his first 2 home starts of 2025 he has not allowed any earned runs in 9 innings!  The Phillies are off a loss to the Marlins and now are on the road where they have lost 5 of 7 games.  They have a strong lineup but tend not to hit as well on the road (.221) plus the Mets are hitting .253 at home this season.  All the edges are pointing one way in this series opener!  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one as everything is set up well here for a dominating win for the hosts Monday! 

#200194 ASA PLAY ON Tottenham Pick'em (-110) over Nottingham Forest, Monday at 3 ET - With their success in the Europa League Thursday a huge weight is lifted off the shoulders of Tottenham and we expect them to play much better here as a result in this Premier League match-up Monday. Tottenham got hammered in their most recent EPL match but that was on the road and they might have had one eye on their Europa League showdown with Eintracht Frankfurt. Now they are back home where their most recent EPL match as a host was a 3-1 win. We expect the Hotspur to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Tottenham gets revenge for a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.  Prior to that meeting, Tottenham had won each of the 3 prior meetings by a 2-goal margin!   Nottingham is fading some here late in the season and off B2B losses in which they scored only 1 goal in the 2 matches combined.  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Tottenham on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -115 vs Golden State Warriors, 9:30pm ET - The Rockets, as the No. 2 seed with a 52-30 record, have been dominant at home (29-12) and are coming off a 15-2 stretch to close the season, ranking top-four in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their defense, led by Amen Thompson, has stifled Stephen Curry before—holding him to just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting in their April 6 win. The big advantage the Rockets will have in this game is offensive rebounding (1st) and 2nd chance points (1st). The Warriors won their play-in game against the Grizzlies but gave up a whopping 26 second-chance points. With home-court advantage and a chip on their shoulder, Houston should cover the -1 spread in a home win. Grab the Rockets

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

#903 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals +125 over New York Mets, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Cardinals have been struggling and we fully realize that but this is a fantastic spot for them to get back on track after yesterday's 3-0 shutout loss to the Mets in New York. St Louis has a big pitching edge here with Sonny Gray over Clay Holmes.  Gray is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA and has struck out 23 with only 3 walks in 23 innings this season.  As for Clay Holmes, he is piling up strikeouts but this is the first season he is making starts since the 2018 season as much of his career has been as a reliever.  Also, though getting strikeouts, Holmes has an unimpressive 1.47 WHIP and has had to work out of a number of jams or his ERA would be higher.  We know the Cardinals have the ugly road record compared to the Mets solid home record this season.  However, the Cardinals have been the better hitting team on the season and we like Gray over Holmes here plus Gray can work deep and is coming off a 7-inning outing. Gray has had one tougher start but has allowed only 3 earned runs in total in the other 3 starts - yes, just 1 earned run per start in those!  This looks like the slump-buster the Cards need so we are going to grab the plus money payback here as this spot is simply too good to pass up. We are going with the money line on the road dog in this one and we expect a dominating win for the visitor Sunday! 

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

German Bundesliga #202593/202594 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+105) – Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich, Saturday at 9:30 AM ET -Bayern Munich not happy at all about their exit from the Champions League and now their full focus turns to Bundesliga action. That is concerning for a Heidenheim side that won't able to hold off relentless attacking from the visitors here. Bayern Munich, however, has been allowing more goals than usual of late and with Heidenheim also hosting this one they are likely to do some damage on the attack as well. Bayern Munich has allowed 1.8 goals per game in their last five. They also have scored about 3 goals per game in Bundesliga action this season. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled 26 goals with none of the four finishing with less than 5 goals scored. Look for another wide-open high-scoring thriller here in this one as well. We will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 pm ET - Dallas is coming off an unexpected great shooting night in Sacramento hitting 49% overall and 50% from Deep, coasting to 120-points and the win. Obviously didn’t see that coming. The 120 they scored could have been much more, but they took their foot off the gas late and we don’t see them having that option here. More to come. Memphis basically fumbled their game away against the Warriors the other night which finished with 237 total points. Memphis shot 49% overall and 46% from beyond the arc against an outstanding Warriors defense. Now they face a Dallas D that was 20th in Defensive Efficiency this season. Memphis’ league-leading pace of 103.1 possessions per game, paired with Dallas’ respectable 99.2 (14th), sets the stage for a fast-paced, high-possession game. Historically, these teams have combined for some higher scoring games with six straight meetings of 223 or more points, including 229 in their April 13 regular season finale when the Over/Under was 228.5—eight points higher than tonight’s game. Memphis’ potent offense (121.6 points per game, 3rd in efficiency) and shaky defense (15th) coupled with Dallas’ scoring (114.4 points) and defensive lapses (115.2 allowed) make for a high scoring game. Dallas owned a 28-14-1 Over record on the road this season and have gone Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Memphis has gone Over in 56.6% of their games this season, including 3 of their last 4.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -113 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - We are on the Bulls here at home over the pretender Heat. Despite Miami’s slightly better season-long efficiency differential, the Bulls have been the superior team since early March, posting a 14-5 straight-up (SU) record since March 6, including two convincing wins over Miami. Eight of Chicago’s last 14 victories came against current playoff teams, which shows the level of play this team is currently at. In contrast, Miami has struggled, going 8-14 SU since March 5, with only three wins against playoff-bound teams. Over the last 15 games, both teams have comparable offensive and defensive net ratings, but Chicago has faced a significantly tougher schedule, adding weight to their performance. The Bulls are 5-1 SU in their last six home games, winning by an average margin of +10.5 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, has a subpar 17-23 SU road record this season, with an average loss margin of -0.8 points per game. A key factor is Miami’s reliance on three-point shooting, which faces a stiff challenge against Chicago’s elite perimeter defense, ranked second in the NBA, allowing just 34.4% from beyond the arc. Given the Bulls’ recent dominance, home-court advantage, and defensive matchup, backing Chicago is the way to go in this Play-in game.

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -110 vs. Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Montreal, fighting to clinch the Eastern Conference’s second wild card spot, faces a Carolina team that’s locked up second in the Metropolitan Division and may rest key players. The Canes will call up several players from their American Hockey League affiliate the Chicago Wolves to get key contributors rest heading into the postseason. The Canadiens are 14-11 since February, 22nd with a strong 4-1 home record in their most recent 5 games on home ice. Montreal is led by goaltender Sam Montembeault (5-1-1 last 7 starts with a 2.12 GAA and .921 SV%) who is 1-1 against the Canes this season. Montreal’s top line of Suzuki and Caufield should have plenty of opportunities in this one which spells trouble for Canes goalie Kochetkov. Kochetkov has allowed at least 3 goals in six straight starts with a 2-4 record, 4.06 GAA and .830 SV%. Montreal’s desperation makes them the clear choice. Montreal is 2 points away from clinching a playoff berth. Carolina: 1-4-1 in their last 6 games, 0-3-1 in last 4 road games.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - 7 straight Rays games have reached at least the 9-run mark.  Yesterday Boston won 7-4 but the Rays took the first game of this series by a 16-1 final.  The Rays bullpen ERA ranks 17th in the majors and the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks 20th out of the 30 teams.  The Rays batting average ranks 1st in the AL this season and Boston is a solid 4th out of the 15 AL teams!  Tampa Bay had won 4 of 6 previous to yesterday's loss and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games.  Boston has been a little more up and down at the plate recently but yesterday's game is a good sign for them and tonight they take advantage of facing Zack Littell.  His first start was against a Rockies team that can not hit on the road and he had success of course here in Tampa against them.  However, Littell has since allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings plus he just allowed 4 home runs in 4 innings here in Tampa Bay.  As for Red Sox starter Sean Newcombe, he has been shaky to say the least thus far.  He has struggled in his 3 starts this season and in particular the road has not been kind to him.  Newcombe allowed 10 runs (6 earned) in only 8 innings in his two road starts. . This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

UEFA Champions League: #224225/224226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 3 Goals (-120) in Real Madrid vs Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 pm ET – Arsenal already has a 3-0 lead based on the first leg result and they will look to take a very defensive approach here and stifle any hopes of a big comeback for Real Madrid. Arsenal is very capable at the back and we can expect they will frustrate Real Madrid throughout this match. Arsenal need not worry about scoring with the huge lead they already have here. Arsenal has a allowed a total of only 3 goals last 5 games. Real Madrid will be looking to build off 1-0 win in La Liga action and we feel Arsenal will be sitting back in this one so Real Madrid will not face much in the way of attacking. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling only 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one.

ASA NHL play on Seattle Kraken +104 vs. LA Kings, 10:37pm ET - Seattle hosts the Kings tonight, and we like the Kraken to win at home. Los Angeles, locked into their playoff spot after beating Edmonton last night, may rest players in this back-to-back. The Kings are 20-21-3 on the road, scoring 2.95 goals per game while allowing 2.89. Seattle, out of the playoffs, is 22-17-4 at home, averaging 3.12 goals per game and conceding 3.05. Joey Daccord (2.69 GAA, .909 SV%) gives the Kraken an edge over David Rittich (2.71 GAA, .890 SV%). Seattle’s motivated for their home finale.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.