Iceland Premier League Rotation #216629/216630 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.75 Goals (-133) – Fram at Valur, Monday at 3:15 ET - Follow the money here. The over has been getting steamed and we do expect a big home pitch effort from Valur here. They are big favorites on the goal line and known for scoring well at home. Fram should be good for some goal-scoring well as they consistently score. Look for an attack-first approach style from each side in this one and Valur will be especially aggressive at home which will force the tempo of this match to be a fast one. Those types of matches are often seen in Icelandic action and we will be involved some throughout the summer in the leagues here and in other Northern areas that play the bulk of their seasons through the summer months. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 163.5 Phoenix Mercury at LA Sparks, 6pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is equal to the league average for WNBA games this season. To cash this bet we essentially need these teams to play ‘average’. These teams have met once this season and produced 175 total points. The game featured 135 total field goal attempts, which is exactly league average. Neither team shot especially well in that first meeting either and they still produced enough points to cash the Over easily. Phoenix hasn’t scored a ton of point per game this season but they’ve also faced 4 of the leagues top defenses. LA has allowed 82+ points in 5 of seven games this season, 88+ in four of those. Our model is projecting 174.6 total points and we agree with the number.

Italian Serie B Rotation #201405/201406 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Spezia vs Cremonese, Sunday at 2:30 ET - Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and also the low-scoring expectation relates to the fact that this is the 2nd Leg of a battle to earn promotion to Serie A for next season!  By virtue of having an advantage in record, Spezia needs only a draw to advance and plus they are the hosts here.  So look for a very defensive-minded approach from Spezia here and they were one of the top defensive clubs in the league this season.  The first leg was a 0-0 battle with very few scoring chances.  We could see a similar result here.  Only the visitors, Cremonese, need to try to score and they will also likely play conservative at first and prefer to wait until later in the match before doing too much risk-taking.  That said, another 0-0 would not shock and, at the most, we would expect a 1-0 or 1-1 battle in this one.  We will take the under here. 

#904 ASA PLAY ON 2* New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-175/-180) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 3.5 or 3.6 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been.  We will ride with New York again today in this one.  The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Clay Holmes was always a bullpen guy but this season he has been fantastic after moving into a starters role and in his 11 starts he has a 2.98 ERA!  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-3 this season with an 8.78 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level.  The Mets, off yesterday's 8-2 win, are now 23-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-27 on the road this season and 5-35 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs.  Now off B2B losses by multi-run margins in this series, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin again similar to yesterday's 8-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on OVER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers, Game 6 Saturday, 8pm ET - We are getting a couple buckets of value here after Game 5’s finish of 205 total points. That O/U was 223.5 so let’s bet contrarian here and play the OVER. The Knicks didn’t have a great 3PT shooting night in G5 at 28% and the Pacers hit just 41% overall and 33% from the 3PT line. In the two games they have lost to NY the Pacers allowed the Knicks to dictate tempo which was slower than normal. In the three games they’ve won, the Pacers have looked to push the ball in transition and create early opportunities for drive-kicks or finish at the rims. The three wins by the Pacers featured 250 total points (in regulation), 223 and 251 total points. Indiana has an Offensive Net Rating of 117 in the playoffs, the Knicks are at 112.8. We like the Pacers to shoot much better at home in this game after a very poor showing in New York. The Knicks with KAT and Brunson are more than capable of putting up points in this potential elimination game. We like the OVER here!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 173 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams with the first meeting finishing with 189 total points. We don’t see those results changing here, even though the Wings are without #1 pick Paige Bueckers. There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113. They have allowed 91+ points in all five games and two of those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points two games ago then put up 92 versus the Sky. Dallas has the 4th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 107.3 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 4th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

#956 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-170) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Koda Senga is having a fantastic season and his home ERA is a minuscule 0.70 on the year.  In his career he is 18-10 overall with a 2.61 ERA.  This season he has been fantastic in his 10 starts with a 1.46 ERA and does a great job of scattering hits and limiting damage.  The Rockies Antonio Senzatela is 1-9 this season with a 6.50 ERA and he is 8-28 the last 4 seasons combined.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hammered (.410 BAA!) on the road this season.  The Mets, off yesterday's 4-2 win, are now 22-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-26 on the road this season and 5-37 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a greater margin than yesterday's surprising 4-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

Champions League #224201 ASA PLAY ON Inter Milan +0.5 (-128) over Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday at 3 ET - Of course we can not bad-mouth PSG as they are justified in being favored here. However, we do feel that this has opened up exceptional value on the goal line at plus a half goal with the underdogs in what we perceive to be a very tight match. Inter has done such a great job of drawing first blood in their matches and we believe they can do it again here and really keep the pressure on PSG who, as the favorite, is playing with a lot of pressure already as it is.  We like the fact that Inter has been scoring a lot of goals in recent matches and even outdueled high-flying Barcelona to reach this point.  It shows that Inter can win both ways this season as they also are known for excelling in tighter low-scoring matches too but they can trade punches with clubs when required.  Considering this match is in Germany and PSG is only 2-2-1 in last 5 matches away from home, we like the value here on a reasonable price to have the +1/2 goal on our side in this one. The odds favor the underdogs earning at least a draw again in this one. This one has upset potential written all over it and, if not, at least Inter sends it beyond regulation for it be decided in which case we also cash this bet! We will take Inter Milan on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +4.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 10pm ET - We are high on the Lynx again this season and despite the love affair with A’Ja Wilson by the media, Naphessa Collier is the best player in the league. Collier is questionable tonight and would be a huge loss for the Lynx. In this situation, we have to fade the Lynx and back one of the biggest surprises in the W this season in the Mercury. Phoenix made wholesale changes in the offseason with trades for Sabally and Thomas, and in the short-term it’s paying off. Phoenix is 4-1 SU on the season with a +7.7 Net Rating, 4th best in the league with all four wins coming at home. The Mercury rely on their defense which is top 5 in most key categories including: FG%, Field goals allowed, 3PT% and 3-pointers allowed. Phoenix has the best Defensive Net Rating of 92.6. Granted, the Mercury have made significant changes in the offseason but the players on the roster haven’t forgotten the Lynx knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +8.5 vs. NY Liberty, 7:30pm ET - The Liberty played last night at home against the Valkyries and won a much closer game than anticipated 82-77. New York starters were forced to play extended minutes with four of the five starters playing 30+ minutes and the other (Burke) playing 28 minutes. The Liberty lost a few players in the offseason and aren’t as deep as they have been in the past and that will catch up to them tonight against a Mystics team playing above expectations. Washington’s defense is more than capable of keeping this game close as they have the 1 rated FG% D overall and are 1st in 3PT%. They are the 2nd best rebounding team in the league and can neutralize the Liberty’s typical advantage on the glass. New York is again one of the best statistical teams in the league, but this clearly isn’t a great spot for them. Washinton has the 2nd best 3PT% in the W and has a positive overall Net Rating. Washington has home wins over the Fever and Dream this season and own a 4-2 ATS season record. NY has played a weak schedule and are over-valued here, playing the second night of a B2B. Grab the points.

#906 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets David Peterson is 8-4 in all home starts since the start of the 2023 season and his home ERA was 2.79 that year.  In 2024, he went 10-3 overall with a 2.90 ERA.  This season he has been solid in his 10 starts with a 2.79 ERA on the season.  The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 0-7 this season and 11-29 the last 3 seasons combined and his ERA has been north of 5.00 both in 2023 and 2024 as well as 2025 thus far.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hit quite hard (.271 BAA) on the road as well this season.  The Mets are off a loss but are 21-7 at home this season and are 3-1 this season when at home and coming off a loss.  The Rockies are 3-25 on the road this season and 5-33 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado is off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#915/916 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs (+100) – Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:07 PM ET - The Athletics are in a horrible slump and have lost 14 of 15 games.  The Athletics have scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game in those 14 losses.  So look for the Athletics to struggle to score here but also look for another quality start from Jeffrey Springs.  The southpaw has struggled at home in the Athletics temporary hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.  However, on the road he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and opponents hitting just .179 against him!  So we don't expect much from the Blue Jays lineup here either.  Toronto is off a surprising 12-0 win yesterday.  Prior to that rare blowout win, the Blue Jays scored an average of just 1 run per game their last  6 games!  Also, Toronto starter Chris Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his 5 home starts this season!  He should dominate this slumping Athletics lineup here.  Our computer math model projecting a total of only 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -128 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 8pm ET - The Dallas Stars return to the American Airlines Center, where they boast a strong 7-2 record in the 2024-25 playoffs, to face the Edmonton Oilers in a must-win game. The Stars' offense showed promise in Game 4 with Roope Hintz’s return, generating quality chances despite Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner stopping 86 of 88 shots over the last three games. However, Skinner may regress, and Edmonton will be without top-line winger Zach Hyman (5 goals, 11 points in 15 playoff games), a significant loss given his offensive and physical impact. Expect Dallas to leverage their home dominance and capitalize on Edmonton’s weakened lineup for a crucial victory. Dallas outshot Edmonton 29-20 in Game 4 and ranks 4th in playoff home goals per game at 3.22. We expect the offense to break through against Skinner and extend this series.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113.6. They have allowed 91+ points in all four games and two those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points last time out and rank 5th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 105.4 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 5th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - Game 1 of this series finished UNDER the total with just 202 total points being scored as the Wolves had a horrible shooting night at 35% overall, 29% from beyond the arc. The last three games though have gone OVER the total with results of 221, 244 and 254 total points being scored. The average field goal attempts in this series is right at the season average for the entire league and both teams are shooting near their regular season average of 47.9% (OKC) and 46.6% (Minn) in this series. The pace of play has been slightly slower in this series than the league average pace in the regular season. What we are getting at is this…the average total points scored in a regular season NBA game was 227 this season. If these two teams were involved in a regular season game this season it averaged 224.7 points p/game. Six of the last eight meeting have gone OVER the number in this rivalry with all 6 of those games finishing with 218 or more total points being scored. Neither defense was able to contain the others offense in the last game with both teams hitting 51% of their FGA’s. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 8pm ET - Carolina got a much-needed win in Game 4 but still trail this series 1-3. Florida had a few key injuries in Reinhart, Greer and Mikkola but all three skated in an optional practice on Wednesday and may be available tonight. After the 0-3 shutout loss we expect the Panthers to be back on their offensive game which scored 5, 5 and 6-goals in the previous three games. In three of the four games of this series, we have seen 48 or more total shots on goal. That high volume should continue tonight and gives us a solid advantage with an OVER wager. In five of the seven meetings between these two teams this season, one of the two teams has scored 5+ goals themselves. We are betting OVER in this one.

#914: ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers Money Line -125/-130 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 8:05 ET - We understand the line move here as it has been a downward drop on Texas here as Toronto looks to bounce back off the 2-0 shutout loss.  We get it especially because the Rangers have struggled to score runs recently.  However, the Rangers are absolutely the play here and this is excellent value considering some key edges.  First off, the Blue Jays have now lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers are 18-11 at home this season and Toronto is 10-16 in road games this season.  Texas starter Tyler Mahle has been incredible this season in Texas.  Mahle is 4-1 at home with a 0.95 ERA over his 7 starts here.  Truly phenomenal numbers for Mahle including a .165 batting average against.  We are going action on pitchers here, as per usual, and Blue Jays starter Paxton Schultz likely will be more of an opener with Eric Lauer expected to get plenty of the work today.  Schultz struggled in most recent outing (even though runs were unearned) and this will be the rookie's first ever MLB start.  Lauer also got rocked in his most recent appearance and that was on the road.  Those recent struggles the Rangers had that we mentioned earlier were mostly on the road.  At home the Rangers, with yesterday's win, have now won 7 of the last 10.  Per all of the above, Texas should prove well worth the modest price here as our computer math model shows high probability of a home win in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164 Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics, 7:30pm ET - Do you find it strange that Caitlyn Clark won’t be in the lineup tonight and yet the OVER was bet up on this game? The line opened 157.5, was bet up as high as 164 and is not fluctuating back and forth between 163-164. The ‘Joe’s’ money pushed this number up and now the ‘Pro’s’ money is coming in on the UNDER. Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a little over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league but that is with Caitlyn Clark pushing the tempo on every possession. Clark is out tonight so we expect the Fever to play at a more deliberate pace and focus on getting Boston as many touches as possible in the paint. Washington plays slower at 96.36 possessions per game (7th) and has problems scoring at 78.4ppg (10th). Indiana has been much better defensively than expected this season with a DNR of 93.2, 3rd best number in the W. Washington ranks 7th in DNR at 98.5. The Mystics have put up 74, 72 and 62 points in their last three games in three straight UNDERS.

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks won yesterday's game 5-0.  Things won't get any easier today for the struggling Pirates!   Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he is in phenomenal current form.  Burnes has allowed just 7 earned runs in total over his last 6 starts and in those 37 and 1/3 innings he gave up only 24 hits.  He has struck out 23  over 18 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 home starts!  As for the Pirates starter here it will be Mike Burrows making the first road start of his MLB career.  He draws a tough assignment as Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park and the Diamondbacks are known for hitting well here.  Burrows made one road appearance out of the bullpen last season and struggled in the Bronx against the Yankees.  Now he is coming off his first ever MLB start.  That was against the Brewers at home and he struggled with 2 homers allowed and the damage could have been worse.  He gave up a number of hard-hit line drive outs and also got a double play to help him.  The point is that he wasn't fooling too many hitters and the Diamondbacks are likely to pound Burrows here while Burnes continues his dominating run.  Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has a .205 batting average on the road and Pittsburgh is scoring only 2.5 runs per game on the road this season!  Conversely, Burrows has to deal with a Diamondbacks team that has a .469 slugging percentage in home games this season!  That is 3rd in the majors as only the Yankees and Dodgers rank higher and that is pretty good company to keep!  With yesterday's loss Pittsburgh dropped to 1-6 this season against NL West teams and they are 6-20 in road games this season.  Also, against teams with a record of .500 or better currently this season, the Pirates are 7-24 on the year!  The Diamondbacks have won 3 of the last 4 at home and their last 11 home wins have come by a combined score of 57 to 15 with the last 4 of those dominating wins coming by a combined score of 17 to 0.  That is another reason we have no hesitation in laying the -1.5 runs with this bet.  Pittsburgh's tough season continues here.  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals +160 vs. Dallas Stars, 8pm ET -Edmonton is 30-14-3 at home this season and 5-1 in the playoffs with three of those home wins coming by 2+ goals. The Oilers averaged 3.47 goals per game during the regular season and are averaging 3.93 GF/G in the postseason. Edmonton led the league in shots on goal during the regular season and are leading in the playoffs with 437. The Oilers have also gotten solid goaltending with a 2.93 goals-against average. In comparison the Stars have allowed 50 goals in the postseason (most in NHL) with a goals-against average of 3.13. Nearly half of the Oilers home wins this entire season has come by 2 or more goals. We will take the added risk/reward with a spread bet of mins -1.5 goals on Edmonton and bet the series trend continues as all three games have been decided by 3 or more goals.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -130 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - New York won Game 3 to make this a 2-1 series but was it the case of the Knicks playing that great, or did the Pacers suffer a bit of a letdown? Obviously, it was a bit of both. We like Indiana to bounce back here with a big home win. Indiana shot above 51% in the first two games of the series, then saw a regression in G3 to 44%. They had hit 15 and 13 3-pointers in the first two games, then made just 5/25 (20%) in G3. It wasn’t the Knicks defense that caused the misses either as the Pacers had quality looks but just missed them. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. The Pacers are 4-2 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-4 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. The Pacers bounced back in the first two rounds off a loss with a 26-point win over the Bucks and a 20-point win over the Cavs. On the season the Pacers are 22-12 SU off a loss with an average +/- of +4.1ppg.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164.5 Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7PM ET - Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a touch over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. We don’t see these two offensively challenged teams getting to 160 or more total points. The Sun are second to last in the league in Offensive Net rating at 87.5 with the worst eFG% of 41.4%. The Sun are shooting just .376% overall and .263% from Deep. Dallas isn’t much better. The Wings are 8th in ONR at 98.2 with an eFG% of .442 which ranks 10h worst (out of 13 teams) in the W. Dallas hit’s just .292% of their 3-point attempts and shoots .397% overall. Defensively, both teams are allowing over 83ppg on the season, but both have faced some of the league’s best offenses which has inflated those numbers. We expect a game in the 150’s here. Bet UNDER!

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

#923: ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -155 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 6:10 ET - The Dodgers are a perfect 4-0 this season when off B2B losses in which they scored 6 or less runs in each loss.  That system is in place here after they lost B2B games to the Mets by scores of 5-2 and 3-1.  The Dodgers bounce back here with a solid pitching edge in this one.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for LA against Gavin Williams for Cleveland.  Note that Williams is off a quality start at Minnesota but he allowed 22 hits in 16 innings over his 4 starts prior to that one.  With the Dodgers off B2B low-scoring wins but being the top slugging team in the National League so far this season, look for Williams to get pounded here.  Los Angeles will be dialed in at the plate here and that should be enough for plenty of run support for Yamamoto.  The Dodgers right-hander has been very consistent this season and has a 1.86 ERA on the year and is holding opponents to a .172 batting average this season!  The Dodgers have a number of hitters with experience against Williams and those guys are a combined 7 for 13 against him.  The Guardians only have one hitter who has ever faced Yamamoto.  This is another big edge for LA here.  Yes this one a little pricier on the money line but we lay it with confidence here as the Dodgers improve to 5-0 YTD when in this situation. 

#908: ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers Money Line -130 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays have lost 3 straight and the Rangers are 17-10 at home this season and Toronto is 9-15 in road games this season.  Texas starter Jacob deGrom is 3-1 at home with a 1.47 ERA over his 6 starts here.  Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has been great at home this season but he is 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA in his 5 starts on the road this season.  The Rangers deGrom also has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts as he has been in fantastic form since mid-April.  The home/road differences are significant here and, overall, the Rangers have plenty of edges in this one (including deGrom over Gausman).  That being said, Texas should prove well worth the modest price here as our computer math model shows high probability of a home win in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 pm ET - Las Vegas is again one of the favorites to win the Title this season and led by league MVP A’Ja Wilson. They are coming off a poor showing at home on Friday when they beat the Mystics by just 3-points 75-72 as a -15-point chalk. We like them to rebound with a much better effort here. Las Vegas traded for former Storm star Jewell Llyod in the offseason who should relish this opportunity to go up against her former teammates. The Aces are 20-10 SU their last 30 road games and have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Storm including 2-0 last year on this court. LV has beaten the Storm 7 of the last nine games in Seattle. The Storm are 2-1 on the season but the two wins came against Dallas and Phoenix who are both below average in our overall league ratings. The Storm are 1-9 SU their last 10 games as a home Dog, 2-7-1 ATS. The Aces will ‘flex’ in this one and win by 6+ points.

#958: ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals Money Line -120 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:15 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost 4 straight and the Cardinals are now 18-8 at home this season.  St Louis starter Sonny Gray is 4-1 at home with a 3.05 ERA over his 7 starts here.  Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has been great at home this season but he has a 6.15 ERA on the road this season.  Gray also was 9-5 with a 2.79 ERA at home last season.  As for the bullpen comparison here, the Diamondbacks have the 2nd highest ERA in the National League as only the Nationals (dead last in NL) are worse.  The home/road differences are significant here and, overall, the Cardinals have plenty of edges here and are well worth the short price as we look for a solid home win in this one. 

English Premier League (EPL): #200133 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea Money Line (+120) over Nottingham Forest, Sunday at 11 AM ET - Very important game in determining who will qualify for a Champions League position and we love the fact that Chelsea is on the road here.  This is giving us a plus money line instead of surely having to lay quite a price if they were at home.  The key for us here is that this is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions here late in the season.  Nottingham Forest is off a win but it was against a West Ham team near the bottom of the standings.  Prior to this win, Nottingham Forest had just one win in the last 7 games!  They have truly slumped at the end of the season.  Also, in their last 4 matches as a host they are winless and in 3 of those matches they did not even score a goal!  Chelsea, on the other hand, is playing with a lot of confidence right now based on their late season surge. Including their games in the Europa Conference League also. Looking at the last 7 matches sees Chelsea with 6 wins and only 1 loss!  Chelsea's 6 wins were by a combined score of 12 to 2.  Great spot for The Blues to notch another key win here.  We will take Chelsea on the money line in this one.

#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 10:07 PM ET - The Marlins had 14 hits last night but were held to 4 runs.  Miami should be swinging the bats well again tonight and with a little more clutch hitting they will get well past 4 runs.  Angels starter Jose Soriano has made 4 starts at home this season and one was good but he has consistently struggled in each of the other 3 with 13 earned runs allowed in 13 and 2/3 innings over the other 3 starts at home!  Cal Quantrill is also likely to struggle here.  The Marlins starter had a good first road outing this season but has lasted only 17 innings in the 4 road starts since then as he has been pounded to the tune of 18 earned runs in those.  Quantrill has a tough assignment tonight which will make things even more difficult for him in terms of his road struggles.  Quantrill is on his 3rd team in 3 seasons and has an ERA above the 5.00 mark from 2023 through the present.  Now he faces an Angels team that is the top slugging team in the majors the last 15 days as they have slugged 26 homers in their 13 games in the 15-day stretch.  Both the 26 homers and the .502 slugging percentage leading the majors last 15 days!  They are red hot and have won 8 straight games but their bullpen has a 6.57 ERA which is dead last in the majors and the Marlins aren't much better with a 5.09 ERA for their bullpen.  The consistent high-scoring trend in Angels games (8-game winning streak averaging 12 runs a game) likely continues here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.  

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA NHL play OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 - Hurricanes vs. Panthers Saturday, May 24 8pm ET - We like the Hurricanes-Panthers Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET Over 5.5 goals. Florida leads the playoffs with 45 goals (3.75 per game) and 82 high-danger shots. Carolina’s +16 goal differential and 46.6% offensive zone time signal scoring potential. Game 1 hit seven goals, and Andersen’s .877 high-danger save percentage in that game suggests vulnerabilities. In Game 2 the Panthers put up 5 goals on just 21 shots. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, one has managed to score 4+ goals in seven of those contests. If one of these teams gets to 4 this game should go Over easily. With Carolina down 2-0, expect an open, high-scoring game.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201229/201230 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-110) – AC Milan vs Monza, Saturday at 2:45 ET - As we had mentioned in a recent write-up on AC Milan, they had switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation and we liked what we were seeing from them on the attack. However, this more aggressive attacking can also leave a team vulnerable to counterattacks. That said, it comes as no surprise that AC Milan is allowing 1.5 goals per match this month in Serie A and Coppa Italia action.  The key here for AC Milan is they are wrapping up what has been a disappointing season by their standards and they are at home and they are taking on a club (Monza) that has been one of the worst clubs we've seen at the Serie A level in quite some time!  With that said, you can expect AC Milan to be relentless here with attacking as they look to take out a season-long period of frustration on an out-classed foe.  Monza won't be able to keep up here but should be good for at least a goal or two while AC Milan likely get to at least 3 on their own.  AC Milan is a very large favorite here and they will take advantage of a Monza club that has allowed 2 goals per match on the road this season.  Entering this one Monza has scored 3 goals the last two matches so their goal-scoring confidence is up and they are playing relaxed knowing already they are being relegated.  AC Milan also playing relaxed football now too knowing that they already missed out on a coveted top six spot in Serie A.  The key here is AC Milan at home and pushing the tempo and wanting to finish a dismal season on a high note for their fans.  They will be attacking constantly in this one no matter the score and, given the circumstances, we like the odds on a rather wide-open affair here to lead to at least 4 goals. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -4.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 1pm ET - This is eerily similar to one of our first WNBA bets last season on the Liberty over the Fever, which hit 102-66. This time around the score won’t be that bad, but the Liberty will play at a much higher level today n a marquee matchup against the Caitlyn Clark Fever. The last time these teams met on this court was late last season with the Liberty a -10.5 point chalk. The number is much shorter this time around and the Liberty return the core of their Championship roster. Granted, the Fever have some additions and are better this season but not +6-points better in this matchup. Last season the Liberty were the #1 rated Offensive Net Rating team in the league and 3rd in Defensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Fever were 11th (out of 12) Defensively, 3rd in ONR. These teams are only a couple of games into this season but the Liberty are going to be very similar in both key stat categories again, the Fever will be good again offensively but we aren’t sold quite yet on their defense. New York is 9-1 SU and ATS their last ten games as a road favorite. New York also boasts a 19-1 SU road record their last 20 road games against an Eastern Conference opponent. The Fever’s day will come in the near future, but today the Champs come away with a double-digit win in Indiana. 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a rematch from the season opener in Phoenix which the Mercury won 81-59 as a +5-point underdog. The game stayed well below the O/U of 158 with 140 total points being scored. There is no reason to expect different results in tonight’s game. Seattle was one of the worst shooting teams in the W a year ago and in the first meeting they hit just 33% overall and18% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 for the Storm they faced a Dallas team that isn’t great defensively yet and shot better at 41% but the two teams combined for 150 total points. Phoenix is coming off a higher scoring game against the Sparks who had the 3rd worst Defensive Net Rating a year ago. The Mercury are 12th in FGA’s on the season and play at the 2nd slowest pace in the league. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the W. Seattle was a top 4 defense a year ago and playing with revenge so don’t expect the Mercury to get into the 80’s again here. With a slow tempo, one solid defense and a poor shooting team involved we don’t see this game getting to 160.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - If the Pacers were a cereal, they would be Lucky Charms! The three last-minute wins they have had in the playoffs are absolutely remarkable with the most recent borderline miraculous. Historically, teams trailing by 9+ points with less than 1-minute to play in a playoff game were 0-1414 going into Wednesday. Indiana is now that 1 team with a ‘W’. We are betting on the value and UNDER in this game after that emotional Game 1. The O/U in G1 was 221.5 so we are getting an extra possession and points with this play today. We expect a regression with both teams shooting as each hit 51% overall, the Pacers made 15/37 3-pointers for 41% and attempted 28 free throws. NY didn’t shoot as well from three at 32% but did attempt 40 FT’s, making 28. This series is about to get very physical and the team that locks down defensively is going to win. NY understands their best option to win is to NOT get into a fast paced – shootout game which Indiana prefers so expect a deliberate pace from the Knicks and a more focused effort on the defensive end of the court.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201209/201210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-106) – Como vs Inter Milan, Monday at 2:45 ET - Great spot for goals.  Inter Milan will give it their all here as they still have a shot at the #1 spot in the league if Napoli falls short versus Cagliari. That said, look for an aggressive attacking approach from Inter Milan in this one but Como will also be doing their best to stifle those slim Inter Milan hopes. Como averaging 1.6 goals per match when at home this season! Inter Milan one of the highest scoring clubs in the league all season and averaging 2 goals per match. Como has scored 1.8 goals last 5 matches. Inter Milan has scored 2.4 goals per match last 5 matches across all competitions. This one sets up well for quite the battle even if Inter Milan also peeking ahead to the match with PSG in Champions League next week! This one has 2-2 written all over it. We are strong on the over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - In Game 1 we were on the Over along with the Sharps who hammered the opening number from 214 to 219. The game obviously stayed below the number and we expected the Books to open this number closer to the closing line of G1 than the opener. As we are writing this analysis the O/U on this game has started to move up again to 215.5 despite a vast majority of tickets/money on the Under. We agree with the move and feel this line should be 224. Minnesota had a poor shooting night of 35% overall and 29% from Deep in G1 and scored 25 or less points in all 4 quarters. Granted, part of that is due to great defense by the Thunder, but we expect a positive regression to the norm for the Wolves who have an Offensive Net Rating of 112.4 in the playoffs. The Wolves shot 46.7% in the regular season and 37.3% from beyond the arc which was the 4th best percentage in the NBA. OKC is going to put up points as they have done all season and playoffs long. The Thunder are scoring 116.8ppg in the post season despite a lower-than-normal EFG%. OKC had a EFG% of 56% during the regular season which has dipped to 52.4% in the playoffs so it’s likely we see that number moving up as the playoffs progress. In four of the last five meetings these two teams have scored 217 or more total points. After a ‘feeling out’ in Game 1 we expect both offenses to put up 110+ points.

#56: ASA NHL top play on Carolina Hurricanes -130 over Florida Panthers, Thursday 8 pm ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on the Panthers over the Maple Leafs in that Game 7 win over the weekend, the experience level of the Panthers is strong as they have have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. Also, with the Game 7 win over the Maple Leafs it means that Florida has now won six straight playoff series and nine of ten, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons.  However, all that said, situational aspects are a key in every series and this is a great spot to go against Florida as the Hurricanes look poised to bounce back from the Game 1 home ice loss.  Carolina lost that game despite a strong edge in shots on goal as Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky came up big in Game 1.  While we certainly respect the Panthers with their big game experience - led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk and Bobrovsky to name a few - these Hurricanes have now outshot their opponents in 8 straight games by an average margin of 12 shots on goal per game!  They dominated the Devils and the Capitals in the first two rounds of this post-season and they aren't going to let a rare home loss completely derail them.  In fact they have been extremely strong when at home and having lost their prior home game.  That was their first home ice of this post-season and on the season overall, the Hurricanes are 9-1 (90%) when they are at home and they lost their most recent home game!  Overall, Carolina had won 36 of 45 (80%) on home ice including 5 in a row in the post-season prior to that Game 1 loss versus Florida.  The Panthers certainly have had another great season but they are only a .500 team on the road this season.  The Marchand / Gostisbehere incident adds a little extra fuel to the fire for the Hurricanes as well as what prompted all that was a questionable attempt by Marchand to do some damage on a late hit that was narrowly avoided by Gostisbehere. So far in this post-season, when the Panthers entered a game off B2B wins in regulation (non-OT wins) they have lost the next game all 3 times!  Indeed an 0-3 situation in play for Florida here again and we look for the Panthers to drop to 0-4 in this situation as the Hurricanes will come out flying on home ice and off a home loss.  Carolina will be relentless and they even this series up   Lay it! 

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30pm ET - This is a quick rematch from two days ago in Indiana which resulted in a 91-90 Dream upset win as a +7-point underdog. At first glance you would argue this is a bad line with the Fever favored by -4.5-points on the road. But the fact that it’s Caitlyn Clark coming to town nullifies any home court advantage the Dream may have as there will be more Fever fans than Atlanta’s. Indiana is going to be a contender this season and better than we originally thought with their new coach and additions. Atlanta was +9 in FT makes and +6 in attempts in the meeting the other night and had 3 less turnovers. This Dream team is improved this season but let’s not forget that were last in the league in Offensive Net Rating a year ago and will have tough times scoring in games. That is never the case for the Fever who were 3rd in ONR last season and will be better this season. The Fever have won 5 of the last six meetings and will get immediate revenge in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 162.5 LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - Let’s start with an ‘average’ W game a season ago finished with roughly 164 total points per game. This O/U is slightly lower than that, but our model suggests 158.7 total points being scored. It’s very early in the season and both teams have completely different identities from last year, but both have played slow to start the season ranking 11th and 12th in pace of play. They are both near average in Offensive Net Rating, but the defenses have been well above average with the Sparks ranking 4th in DNR, the Mercury are 2nd. Phoenix held Seattle to 33% shooting overall and 18% from beyond the arc in their season opener. The Sparks allowed the Lynx to score 89-points in their last game, but the Lynx are arguably the best team in the W. Los Angeles had just 60 total FGA’s in that game and shot above expectations to get to 75-points. At the end of the day this O/U is set at essentially an ‘average’ WNBA game but that won’t be the case with a slower pace and solid defenses. We like Under!

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars – 8pm ET - Dallas has been a strong UNDER bet with 37 Overs, 52 Under and 8 ties in their last 97 games. Of the 95 games involving the Stars this season, 62 have finished with 6 or less goals. Edmonton has an O/U record of 20-26-1 on the road this season and are 41-50-2 on the season. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Oilers netminder Skinner has been great in his last two starts with 0 goals allowed on 47 total shots against Vegas. The Stars goalie Oettinger has been a brick wall in the playoffs with only 7 goals allowed in his last 4 starts and a .942 Save Percentage. The Oilers have had their struggles on the road with zero power play goals in the postseason. Dallas is averaging 2.92 goals per game in the playoffs but it’s going to be tough to get to 3 goals against this Edmonton defense that is off two straight shutouts.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

#224401 ASA PLAY ON Manchester United +130 over Tottenham, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - This one in the Europa League Final and we love this spot!  Interesting line in our opinion as Man U has lost all 3 meetings with Tottenham since the EPL season got underway last August and yet they are the favored side in this match on the 3-way line.  It is certainly not a mistake the way we see it.  While both clubs have struggled in Premier League action this season Manchester United has been their more dominant side in this tournament and we look for that to carry right into a win here in the Final on Wednesday.   Heading into this one, Manchester United has been the much more dangerous side on the attack and there is so much pressure on Tottenham and their manager Postecoglou.  Man U has gone undefeated in their 14 Europa League matches and scored an average of 2.5 goals in the 14 matches including 18 in the last 5 matches!  Tottenham has also played well in Europa League of course as, otherwise, they would not have made the final.  However, the Hotspur scoring has slowed down and they have averaged only 1.7 goals in the last 6 matches in this competition.  Tottenham has also scored only 3 goals in the last 5 matches in Premier League and that is why there is genuine concern here about them merely flipping a switch in this one and suddenly being successful in their attacking.  We just don't see that happening!  Our computer math model shows strong odds of a solid win for Man U here in Spain Wednesday! Take Manchester United on Wednesday afternoon.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then shockingly stayed that way!  We say shockingly because this match-up features the bottom two bullpens in the entire AL based on ERA and also because the Athletics temporary home this season has proven to be hitter-friendly.  It will be another very warm day in Sacramento today and the ball will carry very well here in this one.  Athletics starter Gunnar Hoglund gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and the young right-hander has allowed 16 baserunners in less than 12 innings over his last two starts.  The Angels start veteran Kyle Hendricks here and he was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  He went 3-5 with a 7.08 ERA on the road last season.  This season thus far Hendricks is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his five road starts.  The Athletics did not hit well on their recent road trip but now in their 2nd game back home and facing a struggling righty, we look for the A's bats to get going again.  Their slugging percentage this season ranks 8th in the majors and they had scored 5 runs per game in the last dozen home games prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss.  The Angels stayed hot with that win yesterday and they have scored 5.2 runs per game in going a respectable 8-5 last 13 games.  Prior to this series, 7 of the last 9 Athletics home games have totaled double digits and they are a more confident hitting team in this venue.  The Angels are also very confident right now at the plate and we don't see any way these sub-par bullpens do again tonight what they did yesterday.  At the same time, both starters are likely to struggle here for the reasons we noted above.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 14 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 or 12 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#527/528 ASA PLAY ON Over 217.5 Points – Minnesota Timberwolves vs OKC Thunder, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - This total is set too low in our opinion and we’re on the Over. In their 4 meetings this season, OKC and Minnesota averaged just under 226 total points and in 3 of those 4 games the total was set at 227 or higher. Going back further, in their last 10 meetings these 2 have had just one total set lower than 227 points. We expect an up tempo game with the Thunder playing at the 2nd fastest pace thus far in the playoffs after ranking in the top 5 in that metric during the regular season. OKC is averaging 94 shot attempts per game in the playoffs which is #1 while Minnesota is launching 85 shot attempts per game in the post season. The Thunder haven’t shot the ball great in the playoffs (45% overall and 32% from 3) well below their regular season averages, yet they are still are averaging 117 PPG. At home, that number rises to 126 PPG in the playoffs scoring at least 112 in all 6 of their home tilts in the post season. Minnesota has been shooting below their season average FG and 3 point % as well, yet they are still averaging 108 PPG in the playoffs and that includes 2 terrible offensive performances putting up 85 and 88 points vs the Lakers and Warrior respectively. In those 2 losses Minnesota was 10 of 54 (18%) from 3 which was not the norm for a team that hit 38% of their triples (4th in the NBA) on the season. Minus those 2 poor offensive efforts, the TWolves are averaging 114 PPG in the post season. These two teams have combined to play 21 playoff games this season and 13 of those have reached at least 217 total points. Both teams rank in the top 5 in Offensive Rating in the playoffs and NBA Overs are on a 28-13 run going into tonight’s game. This one goes Over the total.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - Last season WNBA games averaged 164 total points per game. Last season these two teams were 6th (Dallas) and 7th (Seattle) in Offensive Net Rating but we expect a regression from both teams offensively early on. The Storm traded away their leading scorer from a season ago Jewell Lloyd and were already a poor shooting team with an EFG% of 47.8% (9th). Dallas made a youth movement and traded away several Vets and landed the #1 pick in the draft Paige Bueckers. Dallas was one of the worst teams in the league a season ago, but new head coach Chris Koclanes has put a major focus on defense. They also landed DiJonai Carrington, a defensive specialist. Seattle was 4th in the league a year ago in Defensive Net Rating at 96.4 and should be close to that level again in 2025. Seattle was the worst 3PT shooting team in the W a year ago at 28.8% and if Game 1 of this season is any indication of how they are going to shoot this season from deep, it’s going to be worse. Seattle went 3 of 17 from beyond the arc in their game against Phoenix and shot just 33% overall. We don’t see this game getting into the 160’s.

#200160 ASA PLAY ON Brighton & Hove Goal Line Pick'em (-100) over Liverpool, Monday at 3 ET - With Brentford losing yesterday, Brighton & Hove can make their move up the standings to the 8th spot which is important in terms of having a chance at European football next campaign. We expect the Albion to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Brighton gets revenge for having lost each of the last 3 meetings with the Reds - all by a 1-goal margin. With Liverpool already having won the league title for this season, the visitors simply do not have the same motivation level that Brighton has here. Liverpool, as one would expect after clinching the league title, is fading some here late in the season and is winless in their last 2 matches. The odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw in this one and we expect even more with the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Brighton & Hove on the goal line in this one.  

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -125 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs, Game 7 – 7:30pm ET - The Panthers are 3-1 all-time in Game 7s, including 2-0 on the road, with notable victories against the Boston Bruins (2023) and Edmonton Oilers (2024 Stanley Cup Final). Toronto, conversely, is 12-15 in Game 7s, with a six-game losing streak in these scenarios, last winning in 2004 against Ottawa. The experience of the Panthers who have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. The Panthers hold a 60/40 edge in expected goals and they’ve outscored Toronto 20-16 in the series. Florida has won five straight playoff series and eight of nine, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons. Toronto hasn’t reached the third round in 23 years. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0 in Game 7s with a 1.88 GAA and .933 save percentage, including 23 saves in last season’s Cup-clinching win. Toronto’s Joseph Woll, while impressive with a Game 6 shutout, has less high-stakes experience. We are on the Panthers with their Game 7 experience, led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, and Bobrovsky, outweighs Toronto’s home advantage. Florida’s ability to dominate 5v5 play and their recent playoff pedigree make them the safer pick to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. 

#924 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -133 over Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Excellent set up here. The markets are going to look at Justin Verlander's 0-3 record on the season and the fact the Giants are 3-10 against left-handed starters this season and facing southpaw Jeffrey Springs here.  However, there is so much more here than meets the eye at first glance.  First off, the Giants slugging percentage against left-handed starters actually ranks 5th in the National League.  Secondly, Verlander has a 2.76 ERA over his last 5 starts and has truly been in strong form since mid-April.  As for Springs, he has solid numbers in his 3 May starts but his strikeout numbers are not that impressive and he had a 7.66 ERA in his 5 April starts with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.  The Giants bullpen has a 2.59 ERA which ranks 1st in the majors.  The Athletics bullpen has a 5.76 ERA which ranks among the worst in the majors.  The Giants won yesterday's game 1-0 in 10 innings and usually hit much better at home as their .262 batting average at home ranks 7th in the majors.  The Athletics have been better than expected this season but are still only 12-19 this season when facing a team that currently has a .500 record or better on the season.  Also, the Athletics are hitting just .236 in day games this season which ranks in the bottom third of the majors.  The Giants are 15-7 at home this season while the Athletics are 8-15 in interleague match-ups this season.  San Francisco is also 13-7 in day games while the Athletics are currently slumping and have lost 8 of their last 10 including 4 straight!  The Giants have won 6 of the last 8 at home and get it done again here at a very fair price.  Home blowout likely here. Lay it!

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

English Premier League #200155/200156 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-125) – Arsenal vs Newcastle United, Sunday at 11:30 am et - While Liverpool are already crowned champions for the league for this season, this is a big 2 versus 3 battle at the top of the standings.  Arsenal is seeking revenge as they have lost all 3 meetings with Newcastle United in this campaign.  One was in league action at Newcastle and the other two were in EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) action.  Arsenal also enters this match off a 2-2 draw but a disappointing one as they spotted Liverpool a 2-0 lead at the half.  They caught an earful at halftime about their lack of attack in the first half and they responded in the second half in an eventual 2-2 draw with the league champions.  Look for that momentum to carry right into this match.  Speaking of momentum, however, Newcastle has scored 5 goals in the 3 meetings between these clubs since November.  Also, Newcastle is in strong current form as they have scored 23 goals across their last 9 matches overall!  Arsenal has scored 9 goals in their last 4 Premier League matches. You can see why we like the over plenty in this one.      

ASA WNBA play on OVER 169 Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 3 pm ET - Let’s start with our base O/U numbers from last season. WNBA games averaged right around 164 total points per game last season. Indiana was the 3rd highest scoring team in the league at 85ppg and played at the second fastest pace. The Fever were terrible defensively with a DNR of 107.5, 2nd highest number in the league. The Sky weren’t much better defensively with a DNR of 103.5 (8th). Chicago’s offense struggled at times last season, specifically shooting, with an EFG% of 45.7% (11th). The Sky should be better in that department with their off-season additions and with growth in second year players Reese and Cardoso. In the four meetings between these two rivals last season they produced total points of 181, 175, 174 and 141. The Fever are going to be much better offensively this season with their new additions and the Sky will be forced to keep up in this one. We like OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 210 Boston Celtics at NY Knicks, Friday 8pm ET - We’ve got mixed feelings on the side in this game and will stay away from that bet, but we do like the Over quite a bit in this Game 6. Let’s start with this, Jayson Tatum is one of the 10 best players in the league. But the Celtics roster is deep and has been crafted with a plethora of great perimeter shooters, tough minded defenders and unselfish players. Boston moved the ball effectively on offense and it didn’t ‘stop’ in one player’s hands very often as it does with Tatum on the floor. What happens when you move the defense with your perimeter passing? You end up shooting 52% overall and 45% from Deep. That’s a recipe for success and if Boston’s coaching staff can pound that home (mainly to Brown who can also be a ball-stopper) the Celtics will put up a big number offensively again in this game. We also expect the Knicks to have a better offensive showing in this game after shooting just 36% overall with Brunson ‘only’ scoring 22-points. In eight of the last nine meetings these two have combined for 208 or more points. We like that trend to carry over tonight. NBA Overs are on a 26-12 run going into Thursday nights game.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -6.5 Points at Washington Mystics: Friday, 7:30 pm ET - Despite similar 2024 net ratings (Dream -3.6, Mystics -3.8), Atlanta’s offseason additions of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones—both top-five in WNBA field goal percentage (57.2% and 55.9% over four years)—boost their offense, which struggled at 40.8% shooting last season. Jordin Canada returns healthy, adding playmaking (5.2 APG in 2024), while Rhyne Howard (17.3 PPG) and Allisha Gray (15.6 PPG) provide scoring punch. The Dream dominated the Mystics in a preseason game recently, leading 30-10 after the first quarter. Washington, missing key players like Aaliyah Edwards, Georgia Amoore and Shakira Austin due to injuries, will struggle to keep up with a very young roster. Prediction: Atlanta’s revamped roster and Washington’s injuries make the Dream a play to cover -6.5.

#8 ASA TOP PLAY ON Winnipeg Jets -125 over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Though he did have some struggles on the road in this post-season, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has had some big games at home in this post-season which has helped lead the Jets to a 5-1 home record in these playoffs.  Hellebuyck's last start here was a 4-0 shutout win for the Jets and this was reminiscent of how he was virtually a brick wall at home for much of this past regular season.  In the regular season he posted an exceptional 27-3-3 record at home, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts!  Now, coming off another shutout at home in his most recent start here in Winnipeg, we are banking on another strong performance from Hellebuyck to help lead the way to another big home win for the Jets as they look to extend this series to a Game 6 in Dallas.  The Jets Hellebuyck is 5-1 with a sizzling 1.99 GAA and a .902 save percentage at home in this post-season.  The Stars have not scored as well on the road in this post-season.  Other than 1 big offensive game at Colorado (but a 7-4 loss), Dallas has only scored an average of 1 goal per game in regulation time of their other 4 road games in this post-season!  Winnipeg has scored an average of 3.5 goals in regulation time of their 6 home ice games in the post-season.  We also like the fact that the Jets have NOT been outshot in any of the games in this series.  One saw equal shots at 26 apiece and the other 3 games have seen Winnipeg lead shots in goal by an aggregate of 88 to 69 shots!  Lastly, there is also a nice angle we like here and that is that the last 7 times the Jets were on home ice and coming off a loss, they have won the game all 7 times!  They rally the troops one more time here in this one and get another big win at home in Winnipeg!  Lay the money line for a top play on the Jets Thursday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets 8:30 pm ET - We narrowly lost with the Over in the previous game of this series with the two teams combining for 217 total points. It looked like a solid winner throughout the game until Denver went ice cold in the 4th quarters and only managed 19-points. The Vegas O/U on the five games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232, 228 and 221.5 total points. With the over-correction to this current number we will bet Over. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to a very low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league so we should get a high possession game. The Playoff Overs are on a 26-12 run including both potential elimination games last night. Both teams will play desperately here and Denver back on their home court will shoot better than the 41% they hit last game. Lastly, these two teams ranked 3rd and 4th in Offensive Efficiency (and overall PPG) during the regular season at 1.200-points per possession. With everything on the line tonight we expect points from both teams.

Spanish La Liga: #201921/201922 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid, Thursday at 1 ET - Atletico Madrid is on the road and they have won 6 straight meetings at Osasuna and had a clean sheet in 5 of those!  Coming off a big win over Real Sociedad, the visitors have plenty of confidence heading into this match as well.  However, Osasuna has been a strong home club this season and will not be easy to score on here.  Additionally, Atletico Madrid is one of the stingiest defensive clubs in the league with only 27 goals allowed in 35 matches!  We look for tight, low-scoring battle given the above.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

ASA NHL play on Toronto Maple Leafs +125 vs. Florida Panthers, 7pm ET - The home team has won all four games and we see no reason for that trend to change now. Leaf’s netminder Joseph Woll will be in goal again tonight after an 0-2 loss in Game 3, but Woll had a .946 save percentage with 35 saves on 37 attempts. We like Toronto to rebound off that shutout loss considering they had 13 goals in the first three games of this series. The Leaf’s are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games and were 31-15 at home this season. Florida was 23-23 on the road this season, 16-16 as a road chalk, Toronto has been a home moneyline dog just 10 times this season, winning seven of those contests. Back the home team here.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA play on OVER 207.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7pm ET - Even without Tatum we expect the Celtics to put up points against this average Knicks defense. In the first two games of this series these two teams shot poorly but the pace of play set up for a higher scoring game. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 180 field goal attempts, in Game 1 that number was 184. The regular season NBA average was 178 FGA’s per game which resulted in 227 total points per game. These two teams ranked 2nd and 5th in Offensive Net rating this season at 117.3 (NY) and 119.5 (Bos). New York scores their points with great shooting at 48.2% overall (5th) and 36.8% (8th) from beyond the arc. Boston scores with volume and 3-pointes ranking 1st is 3PT attempts and makes per game with the 10th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Seven of the last eight meetings have resulted in 208 or more points. We expect a higher scoring game here.

GAME TWO OF DH: #913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles, GAME TWO OF DH, Tuesday at 3:45 PM ET - Simeon Woods Richardson projected to get the start for the Twins here and Baltimore is undecided but their options are not good.  It could be Cade Povich getting the call for the Orioles.  But, if not, it might be Chayce McDermott and the 26-year old has only made one start at the MLB level.  Baltimore is expected to use Dean Kremer in Game One of today's double header and he has a 5.24 ERA on the season so if he gets flipped to Game Two that is fine by us as well.  Make sure you go "action" on the pitchers for this reason.  As for the Twins, Woods Richardson is winless with a 5.30 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season and Povich is winless with a 7.94 ERA in his 4 home starts this season!  Woods Richardson has walked 10 in 14.2 innings over his last 3 road starts and he also struggled against the Orioles last week.  Povich struggled against these Twins in Minnesota last week and also opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him this season!  Last season, his rookie campaign, Povich went 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA!  The Orioles have a pitching concern here no matter which one takes the mound as you can see.  Baltimore has underperformed at the plate but they enter this game off a 7-3 win and having won 2 of the last 3 games.  Also, Baltimore is now back home where they scored 6 runs in their most recent game.  The Twins are hot and have won 8 straight games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this hot streak.  The Twins bullpen has been solid except they have blown 7 of 16 save opportunities.  The Orioles have been solid in save situations but their overall pen has struggled with a 5.05 ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors!  Also, with this being Game 2 of the Double Header, some of the better bullpen arms could get used up in the first game.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#904 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The key here is the home team value and the stronger bullpen.  San Francisco's pen has the lowest ERA in MLB as they have a 2.62 ERA on the season while Arizona has one of the majors' worst with a 5.18 ERA on the year.  Jordan Hicks may not have great numbers for the Giants but the right-hander had a 4.07 ERA at home last season and he enters this outing in decent form with 3 or less earned runs allowed in his last 3 starts.  The Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez has a .326 opponents batting average in his road starts this season and he has a 7.32 ERA in his 4 road starts this season.  The Giants are 13-6 at home this season and though Arizona has been decent on the road this season, the 10-6 loss yesterday drops them to 2-3 L5 on the road and 5-7 L12 games overall.  Lay it with the home team at a very fair price with this one in the pick'em price range. We are going with the money line on the small home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating win for the Giants this afternoon!  

Spanish La Liga: #201901/201902 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-185) – Real Madrid vs Mallorca, Wednesday at 3:30 ET - Real Madrid is at home and anxious to bounce back off the 4-3 loss to Barcelona this past weekend.  That essentially decided the title for the league this season and that means the hosts will be geared up to quickly respond here on Wednesday as they take advantage of facing a lesser foe.  Of course this is why they are a big favorite here and that is why we are big on the over here rather than the side.  There is juice on this over at 2.5 but with that meaning we only need 3 to cash this ticket we have no hesitation in laying the juice here.  Real Madrid is averaging scoring 2.5 goals at home this season in La Liga but also giving up an average of a goal per game.  Mallorca does average scoring a goal per match but also won't be able to stop an angry Real Madrid side that will be on the attack even if they do have a few players missing here.  This club is deep and loaded with attacking talent. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 pm ET - The value is obvious after these two teams just combined for only 179 total points in Game 4. The Vegas O/U on the four games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232 and 228 total points. The over-correction in the number is not warranted, especially considering this game is back on OKC’s floor where they just put up 149 on this Nuggets team. These two teams had horrible shooting nights in the previous game with a combined 21/86 3-pointers or 24%. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to the low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league this season and we doubt the Thunder will want to play slow at home, especially when it favors Jokic in the half court sets for Denver. Bet the number, bet OVER! Going into Monday nights two games the Overs are on a 22-10 run in the Playoffs.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -140 vs. Winnipeg Jets, 4:30pm ET - Dallas has been one of the best home teams in the NHL this season with a 32-11-3 record. 21 of the Stars home wins in the regular season came by 2 or more goals. Jets goaltender Hellebuyck has had his struggles on the road in the playoffs allowing 5, 5, 6 AND 5-goals so if the Stars get one early, he could have a mental meltdown and allow a big number in Dallas today. Hellebuyck just allowed 5 goals to the Stars on this ice in the last game on 26 shots for an .808 save percentage. Netminder Jake Oettinger is 4-1 at home in the playoffs with a .913 save percentage. In the last game versus the Jets he allowed just 2 goals on 26 shots for a .923 SV%. We like the Stars to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series.

Spanish La Liga: #201897/201898 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+105) – Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo, Tuesday at 2 ET - Celta Vigo has scored 55 goals in 35 games this season in La Liga and they have hopes of finishing high enough in the standings to qualify for the league stage of the Europa League this coming season.  That being said, they will be pushing hard for the victory here and are likely to employ an aggressive, attacking style even on the road as a result of the situational aspects for this one.  As for Real Sociedad, they have been fading but are still mathematically alive for European Football for next season so they too will be pushing hard for the win here.  With that being said, both clubs are unlikely to want to settle for a draw here and we envision both clubs scoring and an eventual victor in a battle that could even reach 3-2 but should get to at least 2-1.  Real Sociedad has allowed 9 goals in the last 5 games.  Celta Vigo has scored 11 but allowed 9 last 4 games and all 4 of those matches each reached at least the 3 goal mark.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NHL play on Vegas Knights +105 vs Edmonton Oilers, 9:30PM ET - Vegas put an end to the Oilers 6-game winning streak with a last second, or last half-second goal for a 4-3 win in Game 3 of this series. Trailing 1-2 in this series we like the Knights to even it up tonight in Game 4, especially with the Oilers missing goaltender Calvin Pickard again for this one. That means the Oilers are forced to start Stuart Skinner again who has given up 4, 5 and 6 goals in his last three starts. He is allowing 3.1 goals per game in his last ten starts with a .866 save percentage. Skinner is 1-3 against Las Vegas this season. Vegas is 37-22 with Adin Hill in net this season and clearly has an edge in that department for this game. Take the live dog in this one.

#920 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Rockies are off a rare win but fired their manager after all the losing had finally taken its toll when the losing streak was culminated with a 21-0 loss.  Even though the Rockies finally got back into the win column Sunday, this team is still a mess!  Changing the manager does not exactly revamp the roster and therein lies the problem with Colorado.  The Rockies, dating back to last season, are 1-8 the last 9 times when off a loss.  B2B wins have indeed been rare for the Rockies and that has, in fact, happened only once this season.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume here.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and yesterday's win was at home.  Now the Rockies are back on the road where they have lost 16 of 17 games!  The Rangers have certainly been struggling some too but now they enter this game off B2B road wins at Detroit and they are now happy to be back home where they have won 12 of 19 games since losing their home opener.  Texas also has the bullpen edge here.  As for the starting pitching, this is a big edge here for Texas!  The Rangers Tyler Mahle is off to a phenomenal start this season and has been incredibly dominant at home.  In his home outings, Mahle is 2-1 with an 0.70 ERA in his 5 starts!  He has been lights out at home this season!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie and he is struggling both home and away.  He is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his road starts this season.  82% of Rockies losses this season by 2 or more runs.  70% of Rangers wins this season by 2 or more runs. Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 231.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 8pm ET - In this series we’ve seen total points scored of 233, 239 and 230 total points. In the first two games the Pacers shot above expectations against a Cavs defense that is one of the best in the league. In Game 3 the Pacers had a ‘normal’ shooting game and managed just 104 points. Cleveland was much better defensively with Mobley and Hunter back in the line up after missing Game 2. Indiana head coach Carlisle will have a better game plan in place to contain Donovan Mitchell who went off for 43-points last game and put the pressure squarely on other role players to pick up the scoring burden. The Pacers don’t have great overall season long defensive numbers on the season but since the All-Star break they rank 8th in Defensive Net Rating and have been much better on that end of the court. The pace of play has not been as fast as you might think and the combined field goal attempts per game is only slightly higher than the leagues average during the regular season. As both teams get to know the others tendencies more we like lower scoring games. This one stays UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen in the series opener Friday.  That was a 13-9 San Diego win and the Rockies got to the Padres bullpen well in that game.  Yesterday the Rockies never got into the bullpen but it did not matter for over players as the Padres scored 21 runs in a 21-0 shutout victory!  The Rockies should bounce back at that plate today as they have some guys in their lineup that have had success against Pivetta and we expect a game more like what we saw in Denver Friday.  The Padres have been absolutely crushing the ball when facing Colorado this season.  San Diego is now 5-0 against the Rockies this season and they have scored an average of 10 runs in those 5 victories!  Look for that trend to continue today in this hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather expected again today in Denver!  The ball was carrying very well yesterday and more of the same is expected today with ideal weather conditions on a warm afternoon at Coors Field.  The Padres Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his 3 road starts this season and he did go 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road last season.  The Rockies German Marquez has lasted only 19 innings his last 5 starts and he has allowed 30 earned runs in those 19 innings!  Marquez has been getting crushed and now has to face a red hot Padres lineup that feels like it is taking batting practice here at Coors Field.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 12 or 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -120 vs. Las Vegas Knights, 9pm ET - I’m going to keep this analysis shorter than normal today and essentially say…bet the red hot streak with Edmonton who has won 6 straight games. The Oilers have outshot Las Vegas 65-49 in the first two games of this series and have put a ton of pressure on the Knights goaltender Hill who has allowed 9 goals. Las Vegas is a solid road team, but Edmonton is 28-13-3 on their home ice, 3-0 in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this one and back the Oilers.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen yesterday.  It was still a 13-9 San Diego win and that cashed our money line ticket on the Padres yesterday.  Today we are involved again in this series but this time it is on the total.  The Padres will send an inexperienced hurler to the mound making just the 2nd start of his career and his first ever start at Coors Field.  Stephen Kolek did have 42 appearances last season for the Padres but it was all out of the bullpen.  Opponents hit .303 against the right-hander last season and the 28 year-old struggled in the two appearances he made here at Coors Field.  Yes, Kolek enters this outing off a strong start at Pittsburgh.  However, he struggled in the minors this season before being called up and he faced a struggling Pirates lineup in that outing last week.  That's not to say the Rockies have not been struggling also but the Colorado bats are going to carry momentum from last night's rally against the Padres bullpen.  The Rockies will give Kolek problems in his first ever start in a very hitter-friendly park.  Of course that hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather today in Denver, is also going to help lead to plenty of scoring for the Padres.  San Diego has won all 4 games with the Rockies this season and has scored an average of 7 runs in the 4 victories.  Here the Padres will be facing 24-year old right-hander Bradley Blalock.  He has struggled in Colorado since coming over from Milwaukee last season.  Blalock allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings in 3 late-season appearances to wrap last year and now, in his first two starts this season, he has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings.  It won't get any easier here against a tough Padres lineup coming off a 13-run outburst yesterday.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets -125 vs. Dallas Stars, 9:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Jets are in a must win situation here and we trust them at home with their 34-8-4 record, at Canada Life Centre. The Jets have won 3 of five meetings with Dallas this season with two of those wins coming in dominating fashion 4-1 at home. Winnipeg’s has been outstanding at home, with a 9-2 record and a +12 goal differential in their last 11 home games. Connor Hellebuyck, boasting a .921 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA, has been a wall at home, stopping 30 of 32 shots in Game 1 despite the 3-2 loss. The Jets’ offense, led by Kyle Connor (8 points in his last 4 games), averages 3.4 goals per game against Dallas, while their league-leading 67 goals through 15 games highlight their scoring depth. We like Winnipeg to even this series 1-1 tonight.

#957 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -160 over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 8:40 PM ET - When you look at some of the Rockies numbers so far this season it is hard to believe and that is why we are willing to lay this price here.  Colorado has been absolutely horrid this season with a 6-31 overall record on the year!  Also, against teams that currently have a record of .500 or above on the season, the Rockies have gone 3-22 on the season!   San Diego is 23-13 on the season and that includes winning 10 of 13 in games against teams that currently have a losing record on the season.  This is a divisional game and the Padres are 5-0 in divisional games this season while the Rockies are 1-9 in divisional games thus far on the season!  Also, the Rockies bullpen ERA ranks a respectable 14th in the majors out of 30 teams but San Diego's bullpen ERA is the best in the majors!  As for the starters here, Antonio Senzatela is getting hit at a .380 clip on the season and has a 7.63 ERA in his 3 home starts this season.  The Padres Randy Vasquez had one really rough start this season in which he allowed 6 earned runs in just 2 innings.  However, in his other 6 starts he allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in 30 innings of work!  All the edges go to the road team here and we'll lay the price!  We are going with the money line on the road favorite in this one and we expect a dominating road win Friday!

#973 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -125 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Philles have won 3 straight games and 9 of the last 11 and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Guardians are on a more modest 8-6 run last 14 games plus the key here is the starting pitching edge in this one.  Cleveland's Gavin Williams has allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in just 6 innings in his last two starts.  The Phillies Aaron Nola has pitched much better than his 1-5 record shows on the season and has been particularly strong of late.  Nola is rounding into form and has allowed only 1 earned run on 7 hits and just 2 walks while striking out 14 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. Lay it with the hotter team and the stronger starting pitcher here at a very fair price in this one.  We are going with the money line on the road favorite in this one and we expect a dominating road win Friday!

Italian Serie A Rotation #201341/201342 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-100) – AC Milan vs Bologna, Friday at 2:45 ET - AC Milan switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation and we like what we are seeing from them on the attack.  However, this can leave a team vulnerable to counterattacks.  That said, with an eye on the Coppa Italia action and Bologna willing to take risks as they are still alive for a top four finish in the Serie A standings at this point, we should see a rather wide-open affair here. Bologna will be willing to attack on the counter-attack and note that the first meeting this season was 2-1 Bologna.  AC Milan has strong current form as they have won 4 of 5 as they continue to thrive in their new formation and they have scored 11 goals in those 4 wins.  AC Milan also enters this game having scored an average of 2 goals per game over their last 10 games in Coppa Italia and Serie A action.  Bologna has scored 23 goals in the last 14 games overall.  Also, Bologna has scored 2 goals in each of the last two meetings while AC Milan has scored a total of 5 goals in the last 3 meetings between these clubs!  Also, because these teams are meeting again next week in a huge Coppa Italia battle, you could see the defensive intensity put on reserve for that meeting rather than this one.  We like the odds on a rather wide-open affair here to lead to at least 3 goals. We are strong on the over in this one.