#792 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -2.5 over BYU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas Tech is an extremely dangerous team, especially at home. They are 13-4 on the season with all 4 of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents. 3 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Purdue, Houston, and Illinois). They are 9-0 at home this season and 24-3 here since the start of last season. The Red Raiders already beat Duke on a neutral court in NYC (MSG) so they are good enough to beat anyone. The Cougars come in with a near perfect 16-1 record but this team is ready to get clipped in our opinion. They’ve been close to getting upset recently holding on to beat an OK at best Utah team (lowest rated team in the Big 12) by 5 and then coming from behind at home to beat TCU 76-70 on Wednesday night. In that win, BYU trailed at home for 53% of the game and held on for a tight win despite getting the friendly whistle at home making 11 more FT’s than the Horned Frogs. The Cougs 2 conference road games were vs KSU and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big 12, and those are their only 2 true road games of the entire season. They’ll be walking into a hornet’s nest here as the students are back for Tech and a huge crowd is expected. The Red Raiders offense is as good as any on the country (18th in efficiency) and they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (24th). Head coach McCasland has always been one of the best defensive coaches in the country and after a slow start on that end of the court, Tech has been really good on that end over their last 6 games. They’ve held each team during that stretch below their offensive efficiency averages and all 6 of their opponents rank in the top 90 on offensive efficiency. BYU has another match up with Utah, their arch rival, on deck and we like Tech to take them down on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -3 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - We like the situation here for the Celtics and will lay the short number with the road favorite. Both teams last played Thursday on the road as the Celtics were at Miami and the Hawks were in Portland. Boston beat the Heat 119-114, the Hawks lost to the Blazers 101-117. Atlanta is in a much tougher scheduling situation here though. Since Jan 2nd they have played 8 games, seven of which were on the road, the last 4 were on the West Coast. Boston is flying under the radar right now at 23-13 SU on the season with the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league at +7.3. The C’s are 13-8 ATS on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +6.8ppg. We like what the Hawks did in trading Trae Young for a proven scoring vet like McCollum and it will pay dividends down the road, just not in this situation. Atlanta is 17th in eDIFF at -0.9 and have a 7-11 ATS home record this season, minus -2.4ppg. These two teams have similar offensive numbers but the Celtics defense is significantly better than the Hawks. Lay the short number with Boston.

#759 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M +5.5 over Texas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Texas is off a huge upset home win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday in a game they shot 53% overall, 41% from deep, and 86% from the FT line, all well above their season averages. They possibly benefited from a Vandy peak ahead to their huge game today vs Florida. The Horns haven’t been all that impressive this year. They already have 2 home losses, including vs Mississippi State who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the SEC, along with a 19 point loss vs Virginia. The Aggies are coming off an OT loss @ Tennessee (on Tuesday so an extra day) in a game they led 75% of the time. It was an impressive performance vs a Vol team that has smoked everyone at home, including this Texas team, prior to A&M taking them to the wire despite making 10 fewer FT’s. In their other SEC road game the Aggies beat a very good Auburn team so they’ve proven they can get it done vs high level teams on the road. A&M is a very good shooting team (24th in eFG%) and they make almost 37% of their 3’s. They should make hay from deep in this game vs a Longhorn D that allows opponents to make 35% of the triples (235th nationally). Defensively the pesky Aggies create turnovers at the highest rate in the SEC and 17th most in the country. Texas struggles to protect the ball ranking 11th in offensive turnover rate in SEC play and that should lead to extra possessions for Texas A&M. Since starting the season 2-2, TAMU has won 11 of their last 13 games with their only 2 losses during that run coming in OT vs SMU and Tennessee, 2 teams both rated higher than this Texas team per KenPom. The Horns are just 3-6 this year vs top 100 teams and we like A&M to cover and have a great chance to win this game outright.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -4 over UCLA, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We have a huge situational edge for OSU in this one. They are coming off a loss @ Washington last Sunday (we were on Washington) and now they’ve had the entire week off to rest up and get ready for this game. They lost starting center Tilly (12 PPG) in the first half of that game to a head injury. He’s had a week to rest and head coach Jake Diebler is confident he’ll be OK on Saturday. On the other side, UCLA is in a really rough spot here. Their last 5 games they played @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home for 1 game vs Maryland and won, then had to travel to the east coast to face Penn State on Wednesday and now Ohio State today. That’s 5 games in 15 days with 4 coming on the road all with long travel. They are coming off a win on Wednesday @ PSU but caught a break when the Nittany Lions leading scorer Dillone injured his ankle 8 minutes into the game and did not return. On top of that, Penn State made only 4 of 22 from 3 (18%) and the Bruins were 21 of 21 from the FT line. UCLA played that game without leading scorer Skyy Clark (3rd game in a row he missed) and he is highly doubtful in this one. They’ve also had the flu running through their team this week with a few players bed ridden which could definitely be an issue here. In their 2 recent road games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin, 2 very similarly rated teams to OSU, they lost by 13 (trailed by 24) and by 8 (trailed by 20) respectively. The Buckeyes are one of the top offensive teams in the country ranking 25th in FG% while averaging 83 PPG while making 79% of their FTs. Those numbers jump to 52% and 88 PPG on their home court. Since losing Clark, UCLA’s top 3 point shooter, they’ve hit just 19 of 74 from beyond the arc (25%), spanning their last 4 games. Today they face an OSU defense that allows only 29% from deep which is 24th in the country so we expect very little from 3 for the Bruins in this game. They’ve also averaged only 67 PPG over their last 4. We’re not sure they can keep up offensively in this game and with the sickness, injuries, and terrible travel schedule, UCLA might not have much left in the tank. Take the Buckeyes.

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201937/201938 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-135) – Real Madrid vs Levante, Saturday at 8 AM ET - Real Madrid favored by 2 goals and we look for plenty of scoring here as newly promoted Levante is capable of scoring as well here and we have seen at least 5 goals in each of the last 3 meetings between thee teams. Levante is undefeated in their last 3 matches and has scored 5 goals in the games. Real Madrid, including Champions League action as well as other competitions in Spain in addition to La Liga, has scored multiple goals in 7 straight games! 4 of their last 6 games have totaled at least 5 goals and they have been conceding more often than usual of late. Look for that pattern to continue here. We are looking for 4 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact we have only a moderate price to lay in the one on the Over 3.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here.

NHL #37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Anaheim at Los Angeles, Friday at 10:30 PM ET -  Great situational spot here. The Kings are off B2B losses.  The last 3 occurrences in which LA is off B2B losses they have scored well (average of 4.3 goals in regulation) and all 3 of those games reached a total of at least 7 goals.  Both meetings between these rivals this season have totaled at least 7 goals and that makes it 3 straight overs dating back to last season as the Kings won the final match-up of last season 6-1.  The setup for goals here is a good one as the Ducks are off of a rare under.  Anaheim is off a 3-1 win and this followed 8 straight Ducks games reaching a total of at least 7 goals.  Prior to the 3-1 win, the Ducks had allowed an average of 5 goals in their preceding 11 games!  The Kings have scored an average of 5 goals in the last 3 meetings between these teams!  These teams have not been great on the power play but they do struggle on the penalty kill and there have already been 3 power play goals scored in the first two meetings between these teams this season.  With numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 or 8 goals as the most highly probable outcomes in this one.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Friday in Los Angeles  

ASA NBA play on OVER 215 LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40pm ET - This is a very low total based on NBA averages and numbers this season. NBA games are averaging 232.1 points per game this season and typically finish the season around 227’ish. So Vegas is suggesting this game is going to be that far below the number? We expect this game to get into the 220’s. The Clippers have found a groove with 4 straight wins and an 10-2 record in their last 12 games. The defense of the Clippers in recent weeks has been much improved but it’s the offense that has really played well. L.A. has an offensive net rating of 120.4 over their last 10 games which is the 4th highest number in the league. They also rank 5th in eFG% over that same time period. Toronto has some ‘meh’ statistics and rank near the middle of the league in FG% (47.1%) and field goal attempts but is solid on the O-boards and 12th in 2nd chance points. They are scoring just under 114ppg on the season. As we mentioned earlier, the Clippers have some great defensive stats in recent weeks but on the season this team ranks 25th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.186-points per possession. The Clippers are also 16th in FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT% allowed. We don’t need this game to be any kind of shootout, we just need it to be better than average. Easy OVER call.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 10pm ET - This is a steep price to lay with the Hawks so let’s grab the value tonight with the home team Blazers. Portland has quietly put together a 7-3 SU streak in their last 10 games but have now lost 2 in a row. They are working on some chemistry issues with Jrue Holiday and Robert Williams work their way back into the rotation. Also, Deni Avdija is out with an injury so picking up his points/assists must come from the rest of the starters. Atlanta made a big trade and sent Trae Young to the Wizards for CJ McCollum and Cory Kispert which is going to be a big upgrade for the Hawks moving forward. Atlanta is coming off a 116-141 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night as their defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 58% overall and 56% from the 3-point line. Back to the value in the number. Portland was recently +5.5 at home against the Knicks, +6.5 and +7 versus the Rockets. Atlanta grades out much lower than those two teams in our power ratings, especially considering the current play of each team right now. The Blazers have lost 2 straight games but prior had a 5 game winning streak with W’s over Houston (2x) and the Spurs. In the Hawks last 10 games they were plus +2.5 and +3.5 at Toronto which is a comparable team in this situation. The efficiency differential between these two teams is close. Portland has an eDIFF of +2.7, Atlanta is +3.6. Grab the points with the home dog in this one.

#849 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +5.5 over Long Beach State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - These 2 have the exact same 6-11 records on the season but UC Riverside has played the tougher schedule (83rd SOS). UCR is 1-4 in Big West play but they’ve faced the toughest slate in conference play having already played the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, Hawaii, UC San Diego, and UC Santa Barbara. Half of the Highlanders wins this season have come on the road and their stats away from home are almost identical to their home stats. We’re getting some value here with this number because UCR has lost 5 in a row, while Long Beach has won 3 of their last 4. Riverside’s last 2 losses have gone to the wire losing by 1 and 3 points vs Cal St Bakersfield and UC San Diego. Meanwhile, LBSU hasn’t created margin in any of their wins this year vs D1 opponents. They have just 4 wins vs D1 teams and those have come by 3, 4, 6, and 8 points. They are a poor defensive team ranking 338th in opponent’s FG%, 349th defending the arc, and 308th in PPG allowed (77 PPG). The Beach also struggles to shoot the 3 ranking 309th barely making 30% of their triples. Tough to lay this number with a team that is bad on defense and can’t make 3’s. Riverside has been very competitive when traveling to Long Beach with a 2-3 SU record (3-2 ATS) with their 3 losses here coming by 1, 2, and 8 points. Too many points as we look for this one to go down to the wire.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +3.5 over UCLA, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Really rough scheduling spot for UCLA in this one. They were @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home to beat Maryland (2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) and now back to the east coast to take on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 in Big 10 play but they are better than their record. 4 of their 5 losses were by 8 points or less vs top tier Big 10 teams Purdue (lost by 8), Illinois (lost by 8), Michigan State (lost by 4), and Michigan (lost by 2). Their most recent home game was vs Michigan (#1 team per KenPom) in a game they lost by 2 but Shot Quality stats had the Nittany Lions winning that game. The Bruins are 1-2 this year in true road games with their only win coming by 2 points @ Washington. If you include their neutral site games UCLA is just 1-5 on the year losing by an average of 8 PPG. PSU is 7-2 at home this year with their only losses coming in tight games vs Michigan State and Michigan, both top 13 teams per KenPom. The Nittany Lions have played the toughest strength of schedule in conference play already facing the 4 highest teams in the conference. UCLA is just 3-2 despite facing the 12th rated SOS in league play. Their most recent win was at home vs Maryland and Shot Quality stats actually had them losing that game at home. The Bruins leading scorer and best 3 point shooter Skyy Clark has missed the last few games with a hamstring issue and he is questionable here. Even is he plays he won’t be 100%. UCLA simply isn’t playing well and this is a guge game for PSU with 3 of the next 4 on the road. We expect them to pick up their first conference win tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 241.5 Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This number opened significantly higher but has been bet down to the current number of 241.5. Our model is telling us that O/U line still isn’t low enough. On the season these two teams play at an extremely high pace, ranking top 5 in tempo. When we examine their most recent trending statistics we find that both are playing much slower in their last 5 games. On the season the Bulls average 102 possessions per game, in their last 5 games that number dips to 97.9, 22nd slowest in the league. Utah is 5th fastest in the NBA on the season with an average of 101.7 possessions per game, but in their last 5 games that average is 99.4 possessions per game. Granted, Utah is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but the Bulls have been much better on that end of the court in recent weeks. Neither team shoots it well enough for this game to get into the 240’s as the Jazz rank 21st in overall team FG% at 46.2%, the Bulls are slightly above league average of 47.2%. Both teams currently sit 20th or worse in offensive efficiency in their most recent 5 games, a clear indicator they are struggling to score. Chicago is coming off a game last night and have stayed UNDER in 4 of six games this season when playing without rest. This game doesn’t get out of the 230’s, bet UNDER.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - KSU is in desperation mode at home after starting Big 12 play with an 0-3 record. Not a huge surprise as they were an underdog in all 3 games and have faced the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play and have already faced Arizona & BYU rated 2nd and 11th nationally per KenPom. UCF is 2-1 in league play with their 2 wins coming at home while losing their lone road game at Oklahoma State by double digits. Their most recent game on Sunday was at home vs Cincinnati in a game they won by 1 points but Shot Quality stats had them losing by 12! The Knights have played only 2 true road games this season and have left the state of Florida just 1 time since mid November (a loss at Okla St). They also have a HUGE game on deck this weekend hosting #1 Arizona on Saturday. Since UCF joined the Big 12 a few years ago, these teams have met twice with KSU rolling to an easy win at home 2 years ago and UCF squeaking out a 4 point win at home last year. The Wildcats have also had an extra day to prepare after losing last Saturday @ ASU (by 3 points) while the Knights played on Sunday. UCF has won only 7 of their last 22 road games since the start of the 2023 season and this is a huge home game for the Wildcats where they are shooting over 50% on the year and averaging 89 PPG. We like KSU to cover this short number at home.

English EFL Cup #234006 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea +0.5 (-148) over Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Chelsea to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for the hosts in this one. We do expect the outright win as Chelsea rides the momentum of the recent managerial change but we're glad to have a draw result also being able to produce a winner here! Arsenal would certainly be willing to settle for a draw here as the 2nd leg of this battle will be on their home pitch. Getting a draw on the road then would be just fine for the Gunners. The Blues have only 2 losses in their last 8 games. Arsenal has been hot so they are in strong current form but they have had to settle for a draw in each of their last 3 visits to Stamford Bridge! Chelsea is revitalized by the managerial change and the odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw again in this home battle versus Arsenal! We will take Chelsea on the goal line (+0.5) Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a tough 4-game West Coast road trip with the most recent game being in Denver, a loss, to the Nuggets without Jokic. Minnesota is coming off a massive win over the Spurs at home and have won 5 of their last six games. We won’t get involved with a side in this game but do like a wager on the OVER. The Bucks have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last ten games with the three Overs coming against the fast-paced Cavaliers and Bulls. The Wolves aren’t the fastest paced team in the league but they do rank 13th in the league at 100.5 possessions per game. We expect that tempo to be even faster tonight without Rudy Gobert slowing down the offense. Also, without Gobert on the floor the Wolves defense is going to be that much worse. Minnesota is on a 7-3 OVER streak in their last ten games and have gone OVER this number in 9 straight road games. These two teams are top 4 in the NBA when it comes to eFG% shooting which means we don’t need a ton of possessions to cash an OVER bet. The Wolves are a top 5 defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency, but as we mentioned they won’t have Gobert for this game. The Bucks are 18th in dEFF allowing 1.167 points per possession (isn’t Doc Rivers supposed to be a defensive coach?). This line opened significantly higher than where it currently stands to grab the value with an OVER wager.

NHL #71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-110) - NY Islanders at Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Both these clubs have been having some goaltending struggles no matter who has been in goal for each team in recent games. Even Hellebuyck has been struggling for the Jets and Sorokin only recently came back for the Islanders and he allowed 3 goals in the most recent game for New York. No matter who is in goal for either side we like the over plenty here because Comrie has had some recent struggles for Winnipeg too and likewise with Rittich for the Islanders. All of this has been a key factor in 8 of the last 10 Winnipeg games totaling at least 6 goals! This includes 6 straight Jets games reaching at least the 6-goal mark! 5 of the Islanders last 7 games have also totaled a minimum of 6 goals. We understand the total being set at only 5.5 goals on this because of the long-term reputation of Hellebuyck and the Jets as well as the Islanders season-long trending toward under. The key here is that recent form is dictating a much different outcome here than what those long-term numbers have produced. The Jets have allowed at least 3 goals in 10 of 11 games! Winnipeg has also scored at least 3 goals in 13 of 16 on home ice! With numbers like this it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 goals as the most highly probable outcome in this one. Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in Winnipeg

#602 ASA PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a gigantic home game for Providence who sits with a 1-4 record in the Big East. They are “this close” to having a much better record in league play as 2 of their 4 losses have come in OT vs UConn (blew a 13 point 2nd half lead) and Butler and another loss came by 5 points vs Seton Hall. Their lone win was @ St Johns (77-70 final) who ranks as the 2nd best team in the Big East behind UConn. They’ve shown they are much better than their Big East record beating one of the top 2 teams in the league and losing to the other in OT. Villanova is in the 2nd of back to back road game after squeaking by Marquette 76-73 on Saturday. The Golden Eagles rank as the worst team in the Big East per KenPom and the Shot Quality score had Marquette actually winning that game vs Villanova. The line value is very solid here. We have Providence as a slight favorite and when comparing the line to Villanova’s most recent game, we see the Wildcats were -3.5 @ Marquette and now nearly the same -2.5 @ Providence who ranks almost 50 spots higher than the Golden Eagles. The Friars are one of the best offensive teams in the Big East ranking in the top 80 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% while averaging 89 PPG. At home all of those numbers improve and they are averaging 91 PPG. The also make 78% of their FT’s while Vilanova makes only 69% which could be key in what is expected to be a close game. Nova averages just 71 PPG in their road games this year and they are in a possible letdown spot here in their 2nd straight road game with a huge match up on deck vs St Johns. They are 4-1 in the league with 3 wins coming by 8 points or less including vs 2 of the 3 worst teams in the conference (DePaul & Marquette). We like Providence at home in this spot.

German Bundesliga - #202437/202438 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (-140) Eintracht Frankfurt at Stuttgart, Tuesday at 12:30 ET - Stuttgart is scoring goals like crazy at the moment. They are also on their home pitch here and this is a Stuttgart club that has scored at least 3 goals in 4 of its last 5 matches (one was an international friendly). 8 of their last 10 matches overall have totaled at least 3 goals. As for Eintracht Frankfurt, 5 of its last 8 matches have reached at least the 5-goal mark and those 5 averaged a total of 5 goals! The last 5 times these clubs have met at Stuttgart, all 5 matches totaled at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4.4 goals each! Stuttgart is favored here at home and yet they are dealing with a number of injuries impacting their defenders. This is another key as to why the goals should fly going both ways here Tuesday! Over gets the call in this one!

#385/386 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Not a great night weather wise for the offenses with windchill in the 20’s and 10 to 15 MPH wind with gusts into the 20 MPH range. The Unders have gone 3-2 in the 5 Wild Card games thus far and we expect a grinder here. Outdoor Unders in the Wild Card round are now 52-25 since 2004. Neither offense operates at a high level with the Texans ranking 25th in YPP and the Steelers 21st. Big plays will be few and far between with The Steelers averaged 10.6 plays of 10 or more yards per game (27th in the NFL) and the Texans average 11.2 per game (24th). These 2 teams have the lowest offensive success rates in the postseason, both ranking outside the top 20. Neither team is great at converting on 3rd down with Pittsburgh ranking 15th and Houston 23rd and they reach 3rd down quite often. They both reach 3rd down on right around 50% of their sets of downs ranking 27th and 28th in the NFL. Defensively Houston is elite ranking #1 in total defense and EPA per play while allowing only 1.52 points per drive (2nd in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s total defense numbers aren’t great (25th) but they’ve been able to limit opponents scoring ranking 17th in that category and they give up 2.10 points per drive which is 14th best. Both are efficient defensively ranking in the top 5 in opponents yards per point. We expect Pittsburgh’s offense to have a really tough time moving the ball and putting points on the board in this game. On the other side, while the Steelers defensive numbers overall are great as we mentioned, they faced 7 offenses this year ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in YPP (Houston is 25th) the Steelers allowed an average of 20 PPG in those games. We’ll go Under in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 7:40 pm ET - These same two teams met in late December on this same court and produced 262 total points with an O/U set of 230.5 and we predict another shootout in this meeting. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Spurs in which they scored just 95-points. They attempted 93 field goals but shot just 41% as a team overall and had 4 FT attempts. That was against a Spurs D that is top 6 in the league in defensive efficiency and the Pacers are not in that same defensive category. Indiana ranks 24th out of 30 teams in dEFF, allowing 1.183 points per possession. Boston should find their stroke in this game with the 12th best FG% shooting team facing a team that ranks 25th in FG% defense. Indiana’s offense has been horrendous this entire season, but in recent weeks they’ve been significantly better. In the Pacers last 8 games they have faced 7 defenses in the top 13 in terms of dEFF and has scored 110 or more in all of those games. Boston ranks 15th in dEFF on the season allowing 1.155PPP. Boston will be motivated after putting up 95-points last time out and should get to their season average of 117ppg which means we just need 110 or so out of the Pacers. We expect this game to get OVER by a comfortable margin.

Italian Serie A #210377/210378 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-115) – Cagliari at Genoa, Monday at 12:45 ET - Excellent value here as getting to 2 goals gets us a push here and we are predicting at least a 2-1 final here.  Cagliari have a knack for coming back in games and Genoa have a knack for blowing leads.  So even if the hosts get out to an early lead here it will not result in any "quit" for the visitors as this has been a common theme for Cagliari.  In fact, Cagliari has had 6 of its last 8 Serie A matches reach at least the 3 goal mark.  Genoa is off B2B 1-1 draws and this followed 7 of 8 matches (including one in Coppa Italia) all reaching a total of at least 3 goals.  Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have reached a total of at least 2 goals and 4 of the 5 reached at least 3 goals!  Per our computer math model, a 2-1 final is the most likely outcome in this one.  Take advantage of the over being set at only 2 goals in this one.  Over is the bet here.    

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234 Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, 8:40pm ET - The Warriors aren’t the team they used to be but still have a reputation for being a great offensive team. The facts of the matter are they rank 17th in Offensive Efficiency, are 25th in team FG% and 14th in eFG%. They also rank 12th in pace of play at 99.5 possessions per game. The Hawks like to play fast with the 2nd most possessions per game in the league, but they have an oEFF of 1.148PPP which is 18th in the NBA. Atlanta is also going to have some continuity issues with Porzingis and Rizacher coming back from injury and also adding recently acquired CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert to the rotation. Golden State is 10th in Defensive Efficiency; the Hawks are 16th. Atlanta has allowed 102 or less points in 4 of their last six games. The Warriors have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 116 or less points. We don’t see either of these teams reaching 117 or better in this game. Bet Under

#383 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers defense has been lights out this season and we expect them to keep this game close throughout. LA has allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games. They finished the season top 10 in opponents TD’s per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive. Almost 40% of their opponents drives failed to gain a first down which was tops in the NFL. New England had a stellar season but let’s not forget they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by far. In fact, per the DVOA metric, the Patriot’s schedule this season was the 3rd easiest in NFL history. They faced THREE teams that ended the year with a winning record and lost 2 of those games splitting with Buffalo and losing vs Pittsburgh. If you look at the top 20 DVOA NFL teams this season (advanced metric) the Patriots played only 6 of those teams (least in the NFL) and their largest margin of victory in any of those games was 5 points. It’s been a great season but this is a fairly inexperienced team that isn’t used to being in the playoffs vs a team that has been in the playoffs and has extra motivation after losing in the Wild Card round last year @ Houston. In fact, Wild Card teams that were in the playoffs last season (LA Chargers) and are underdogs vs teams that were not in the playoffs last year (New England) are 21-2 ATS since 2013 covering by an average of more than 7 PPG. Another strong trend we have going for us here is the QB situation. The Pats Drake Maye has had a great season but he’s never played in a playoff game and Justin Herbert has. Those first time playoff QB’s facing a QB that has been in the playoffs are 20-40 both SU & ATS since 2002. Experience at that position matters this time of year. On top of that, the Patriots have to face a legit high level QB which didn’t happen much this season. In fact, they faced a team’s back up QB on a whopping 61% of their defensive snaps this season which was by far the most in the NFL. The Chargers weakness on offense this year was protecting Herbert. They were solid in run blocking (12th in rushing) but not great in pass blocking. That may cost them down the line but shouldn’t be an big issue here vs a New England defense that finished 24th in pressure rate despite playing the lightest schedule in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, New England thrived on big plays and the Chargers defense was one of the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. If LA can run the ball and not be one dimensional on offense, they have a great shot to win this game outright. We’re getting more than a FG here and we’ll take the points.

#383/384 ASA PLAY ON Under 46 Points – LA Chargers vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The weather on Sunday night in the Boston area will be cold and windy, not conducive to scoring points. We have 2 top 10 defense facing off here (both total D and scoring D) and LA has allowed more than 20 points just once over their last 10 games while the Patriots have allowed more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games. Over the last 10 New England has allowed an average of 18 PPG and the Chargers have allowed 17 PPG over that same span. LA is ranked 7th in the NFL in defensive EPA and New England 11th. LA has gone Under the total in 11 of their 17 games this season and they’ve only topped 48 points 3 times this season. While New England has been involved in higher scoring games at times this season, much of that was because of their offense and not a porous defense. Problem is, their offense faced a really weak slate of opposing defenses facing only 3 teams with a top 10 D (total defense) and they average rank of the defenses they’ve faced this season is 19th. The Chargers, top 5 total defense, will be the best defensive unit the Pats have faced this season. The New England offense also thrived on creating big plays this season and they are facing a Charger D that ranks 4th in the NFL in explosive plays allowed. With the shaky weather on Sunday night in Boston, we expect both teams to lean heavily on the run game which eats clock. These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL ranking 28th (Chargers) and 30th (Pats) in seconds per play. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games have gone Under the total at a 68% rate (49-23 to the Under). When the total is set at 41 or other in those games, the Under hits at a 75% rate. We don’t see either team getting to the mid 20’s offensively in this game which leads us to an Under.

#862 ASA PLAY ON Washington -1.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 6 PM ET - Nice situational set up for the home team here. The Huskies are off back to back road losses @ Indiana and @ Purdue dropping to 1-3 in the Big 10 making this a very important game. They lost both of those games by 10 points but Shot Quality scores had Washington losing by 6 vs Purdue and actually winning the game @ Indiana. UW had won 4 of their previous 5 games prior to their 2 game losing streak. They catch OSU in the 2nd of back to back West Coast games after they topped Oregon on Thursday night. In that win the Buckeyes shot 12% better overall, 10% better from 3, and made 3 more FT’s than the Ducks. OU attempted 8 more shots compared to Ohio State but shot just 33% in the game and were without their 2nd leading scorer Shelstad who averages 16 PPG. The 2nd leg of a long road trip is always tough especially if a team wins the first game, there is a chance they letdown a bit in the 2nd game. We’re getting some line value due to recent results as well. The Buckeyes were just 1.5 point dogs @ Oregon, who was without a key player, and ranked 35 spots below Washington and we’re getting the same number (at the open) here. OSU is 3-1 on the road but their wins have come vs Northwestern (by 4), Rutgers (lowest rated team in the Big 10) and Oregon, all rated lower than this Washington team. Their one road loss was @ Pitt who is rated as the 4th worst team in the ACC currently. The Huskies are 6-1 at home (2 point loss vs UCLA) and shoot 49% and have a +20 PPG margin. They don’t turn the ball over (56th in offensive turnover %) and they should control the boards in this game. Must win for the home team with a small number and we’ll lay it.

English FA Cup #200521/200522 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-115) – Brighton at Manchester United, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Manchester United is off of a 2-2 draw and appears to be responding after the exit of manager Ruben Amorim.  We expect a strong effort again here at home from the Red Devils even if they rotate some players in for this FA Cup match.  Brighton will likely be doing the same in terms of player rotation but the fact is this one sets up well for plenty of scoring.  Brighton realizes that facing Manchester United while they have an interim manager is an opportunity to get the win and advance in the English FA Cup.  Historically they have been on the wrong end of battles with Manchester United in the FA Cup so, even though they are on the road, this is a great spot to get some payback.  Brighton has scored 6 goals last 4 matches and allowed 7 goals last 4 road matches.  Nice back and forth battle sets up well here at Old Trafford.  4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals!  We like our chances here of another one reaching at least the 3 goal mark. That would be a push of course but 4 or more is definitely the most probable outcome here per our computer math model. Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - The health of both teams plays an important role in this handicap as the Bulls have a key component back in the lineup with Coby White, while the Mavs will be without Anthony Davis. Davis, the often injured star, could miss the remainder of the season with a hand injury. Chicago also has the benefit of extra rest coming into this game as their last game was cancelled due to moisture on the floor so the Bulls have been off since the 7th. Dallas on the other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game with the most recent game coming in Utah on Thursday night. The Mavs have struggled on the road this season with a 4-13 SU record and an average loss margin in those games of minus -5.9ppg. The Bulls have been a much better team at home than on the road with an above .500 record on their home court of 10-9. The Bulls will enjoy a defensive rebound advantage as they rank 4th best in the league in that stat category plus they don’t turn the ball over like the Mavs do. Dallas is 24th in turnover percentage, the Bulls are 9th. Dallas is 1-6 SU this season when playing with a rest disadvantage and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.3ppg. We like the health and scheduling advantages in this one and will back the home team to win by 6+ points.

#794 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -11.5 over Maryland, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bruins are back from a road trip that saw them lose back to back games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. They lost by 13 vs the Hawkeyes and 8 vs the Badgers but their Shot Quality scores had them losing by 1 @ Iowa and winning @ Wisconsin. They combined to shoot 4 of 31 from beyond the arc in those 2 games (13%) which was an outlier for a team that makes 37% of their triples (40th in the country). We expect them to get back on track here when they shoot over 38% from 3 @ Pauley Pavilion and they are facing a Maryland defense that ranks outside the top 300 defending the arc. The Terps have fallen off a cliff after starting 5-1 they have lost 7 of their last 9 with their only wins during that stretch coming at home vs Wagner (ranked 317th) and Old Dominion (ranked 245th). They only have 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 240 and those were vs Marquette, who has a record of 6-10, and UNLV, who has a record of 7-7. The Terps are 0-4 in the Big 10 and vs they’ve played 3 games vs the top half of the conference teams and lost those games by 18 @ home vs Indiana, @ Iowa by 19, and at home vs Michigan by 18. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has been very disappointed with his team’s defensive effort as of late and he let them know it after their road trip. Even with that they are still in the top 60 nationally in defensive efficiency and they allow opponents to shoot just 39% at home. The Bruins will play extra hard on that end of the court and that will be a problem for Maryland who isn’t a great shooting team (299th in eFG%). The Terps allow over 80 PPG on the road this season and UCLA averages 86 PPG at home. The Bruins are 9-0 at home this year with 8 of those wins coming by double digits. We’ll lay it.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -1 over Arkansas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We were on Auburn earlier this week at home vs Texas A&M and they blew a 16 point 2nd half lead (with under 14:00 remaining) and lost 90-88. The Aggies shot over 50% in that game and hit 43% of their triples (Auburn hit only 27% from deep) and it still came down to the wire. Their previous game they lost in OT @ UGA and now sit at 0-2 in SEC play and are in must win mode. They’ve actually been quite unlucky as Shot Quality stats had the Tigers winning @ UGA by 9 and then beating A&M by 17! That basically tells us Auburn was getting better shots than their opponents but shot a poor percentage which they did making only 27% from 3 point land in each game. This team could easily be 2-0 right now and we wouldn’t be seeing them as a home dog (we were anticipating this line to flip to Auburn as a small favorite). These teams have obviously changed from last season, but Auburn was a 16 point favorite at home vs the Razorbacks last year and now they started out here as a dog (line opened +1.5). That’s too big of a swing in our opinion. Arkansas is 2-0 in league play and coming off a road win @ Mississippi (lowest rated team in the SEC) on Wednesday so this will be their 2nd of back to back away from home and they have 1 less day to prepare as Auburn lost at home on Tuesday night. This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season and they are 1-1 thus far. Since John Calipari took over the Arkansas program as the start of last season, they are just 5-7 in true road games and they are facing an Auburn team that is 19-3 at home during that same time frame. The Tigers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country (4th SOS) and 4 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Michigan, Arizona, Houston, and Purdue) all away from home or neutral sites. Auburn is a very good offensive team (13th in offensive efficiency) that we expect to bounce back and shoot much better at home tonight. They are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (7th) which should lead to extra opportunities. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5 at home vs Arkansas and we like them in this one.

#375 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two met on November 30th in Charlotte and the Panthers pulled the 31-28 win as a 10 point dog. Despite the loss, the Rams dominated the stat sheet averaging 7.4 YPP (their 4th highest mark of the season) to just 5.8 YPP for the Panthers. LA controlled the trenches as well averaging over 7.0 YPC on the ground to just 4.1 for Carolina. Turnovers were the problem for the Rams as they had 3 giveaways to 0 for the Panthers including a 48 yard pick 6. The Panthers offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL in explosive play rate, had TD’s from 35, 33, and 43 yards out which is unlike them. They also converted 10 of their 18 third and fourth down plays which was also out of the norm for an offense that ranks 25th in third down conversion rate. Even with all of that going right for Carolina, they still only won by 3 points. The Rams were uber efficient on offense. They had 8 possessions for the game and if we take away the possessions where they turned the ball over, LA scored TD’s on 4 of their 5 drives. They lead the NFL in scoring, YPP, and EPA per play so we expect a big day from this offense. Carolina ranks 27th, 28th, and 25th in those key offensive metrics. LA had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +172 (behind only Seattle) and Carolina actually has a negative point differential at -69 (23rd in the NFL) making them the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential. They also have negative YPG and YPP margins on the season. Lastly, we’re getting grizzled veteran Rams QB Stafford who has started in 10 playoff games in his career vs Carolina QB Young who has never been in a playoff game. QB’s that have never started in the playoff game vs QB’s that have playoff experience are just 20-40 ATS since 2002. On top of that, teams that win the game outright are 69-11 ATS the last 80 Wildcard games. We don’t see the Panthers winning this game or even keeping it close. This is a high number but warranted and we like the Rams by at least 2 TD’s here.

#607 ASA PLAY ON VCU -1.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line speaks volumes. VCU with an 11-5 record is a road favorite vs a George Masion team that is 15-1 on the season. Hmm? That line is telling you who to take in this game and that is VCU. We agree. The Rams are coming off a home loss on Wednesday (we were on VCU) vs a very good St Louis team (ranked 32nd per KenPom). They shot terribly in that game making only 29% of their shots overall and just 25% from deep and despite that the Rams led by 1 point with just over 2:00 minutes remaining vs one of the better mid major teams in the country. That was an outlier for this VCU offense as they are a very good offensive team ranking 54th in offensive efficiency, 62nd in eFG%, 46th in 3 point FG%, while averaging 86 PPG. We look for them to play much better in this game. All 5 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in the top 55 with 4 of those coming vs teams in the top 35. By comparison, George Mason who has a strength of schedule of 346th, has played ONE top 100 team all season and lost that game by double digits vs Va Tech. VCU will be the highest rated team they’ve faced all season. Their 15-1 record is a bit of a mirage at this point which is why they are a home dog in this game. While this game is @ George Mason, they’ve had some close calls vs poor teams this year beating Penn (ranked 217th) by 4, Loyola Maryland (ranked 341st) by 7, and Winthrop (ranked 151st) by 6. Now they take a huge step up in competition vs a VCU team that has beaten them 6 straight times and 14 of the last 17. The Rams have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively and they are the better rebounding team. We’re getting VCU off a loss as well which sets this one up very nicely.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -3.5 over Oregon, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Indiana over Bama and the Hoosiers dominated 38-3 holding the Crimson Tide outgaining them 407 to 193. IU had twice as many first downs and held the Tide to 1.4 YPC on the ground. Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 but the stats in that game were much closer with the Ducks putting up 309 total yards to 215 for Tech. The Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in the game leading to over half of Oregon’s points (13), they missed a FG, and were shutout on downs 3 times. The Ducks defense was very good in that win, however we still are a bit concerned about them on that side of the ball as they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards in their opening round win at home vs James Madison. IU has the better wins this season beating Oregon on the road, topping Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and then destroying Bama last week. Oregon’s best win of the season was last week vs Texas Tech and prior to that maybe @ Iowa (IU won at Iowa as well). The Hoosiers already beat Oregon on the road by 10 points (30-20 final) and the Ducks had a pick 6 in that game and still lost at home by double digits. Indiana won the stats by +60 yards and held Oregon to just 81 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC (Hoosiers had 111 yards rushing). Last week the Ducks struggled to run the ball averaging only 1.4 YPC vs Tech (47 rush attempts for just 64 yards) and we think the ground game will be key here which favors Indiana. They are the better running team and defensively they allow just 73 YPG on the ground on 2.8 YPC while Oregon allows 111 on 3.3 YPC. While that’s not a huge difference we like the better team in the trenches in this one. Despite taking care of Oregon handily on the road this year, the Hoosiers still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. IU is and has been the better team all season and we’ll take them here to win, cover, and move onto the National Championship game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET - If this game goes anything like the first two meetings this season it will be an easy winner. In the two clashes between these two Eastern Conference rivals the total scoring output was 260 and 247. We don’t think we’ll see a game in the high 240’s again, but we are betting this one gets to the mid-230’s. The 76ers offense with Tyrese Maxey is hitting on all 6 cylinders right now with 139, 123, 130, 124 and 131 points scored in their last 5 games. The Sixers have the 2nd best offensive Net rating in the league in that 5-game stretch. Defensively though they’ve been average in that stretch with the 15th DNR rating in the league while giving up an average of 123.4ppg. Philadelphia gets the 3rd most field goal attempts up in the league, so we know they’ll get plenty of opportunities to score. Orlando was known for their defense but slipped on that end of the court this season and is currently ranked 13th in defensive efficiency after ranking 2nd a year ago. Offensively they’ve hovered around league average in most key stat categories including team FG% at 46.8% (16th). The Magic are coming off a low scoring game against the Nets most recently but prior to that game had played three higher scoring games with total points of 232, 262 and 235. We will be happy if this game turns out to be an ‘average’ NBA game which means 233 total points being scored.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Oakland -14.5 over Cleveland State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 8-8 on the year despite playing one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country. Their SOS is rated 12th in the country and they’ve already faced the likes of Michigan State, Houston, Purdue, and Michigan all rated in the top 12 per KenPom. The Grizzlies are on a roll right now winning 7 of their last 10 after losing 5 of their first 6 to start the season. They are ranked as the #1 team in the Horizon League and tonight they are facing a Cleveland State team that ranks as the 2nd worst team in the league and 322nd in the country. The Vikings have faced 7 teams ranked in the top 200 this year (Oakland is 130) and they are 0-7 in those games losing all by at least 15 points including 3 of those games vs teams rated below Oakland. The CSU defense has been abysmal allowing 84 PPG (347th) and ranking 353rd in defensive efficiency. That’s going to be a huge problem vs an Oakland offense that ranks 56th nationally in offensive efficiency which is more than 100 spots higher than any other team in the conference. The Griz are also averaging 84 PPG and that’s all despite playing the 5th best set of defensive efficiency teams in the country. They have only played 4 games at home this year (12 on the road or neutral) and they are 4-0 in those games scoring at least 96 points in all 4. This will be the first opponent Oakland has faced this season that ranks below 300 in defensive efficiency and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they hit triple digits in this game. They like to play fast (41st in tempo) and Cleveland State does as well (135th in tempo) so simply more chances for this Oakland offense to pull away. A blowout is highly possible here.

#816 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State NM State -3 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - New Mexico State is a perfect 6-0 at home this year including an 8 point win over a very good New Mexico team who is 12-3 and ranked 54th per KenPom. The Aggies are also coming off back to back road losses @ FIU and @ Missouri State and they are happy to be at home after playing 7 of their last 7 on the road or at neutral sites. While NMSU has been on the road for the most part as of late, Western Kentucky has been at home for 5 of their last 7 games and off back to back home wins vs Sam Houston St and La Tech. The Hilltoppers have played only 3 true road games this year losing 2 of those by double digits vs 2 teams both ranked lower than New Mexico State (Marshall and Jacksonville St). WKU did win their first road game of the year way back on November 10th @ Eastern Kentucky who is currently 2-11 vs D1 teams this season. The Hilltoppers are bad shooting team and that usually doesn’t bode well on the road. They rank 306th making only 41.8% of their shots and on the road that drops to 35%. They are facing a lock down New Mexico St defense who allows opponents to shoot only 39% this year (18th) while making only 21 FG’s per game (7th). The Aggies have played the stronger schedule and still have better offensive and defensive shooting numbers. These 2 have met 5 times since NMSU joined Conference USA in 2024 and the home team has won all 5 times. Last season the Aggies dominated the Hilltoppers here at home 65-47 as a 4 point favorite and we look for them to win and cover tonight.

English Premier League #200157/200158 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – Liverpool at Arsenal, Thursday at 3 pm et - Arsenal is at home and seeking revenge here as they lost 1-0 at Liverpool earlier this season.  That low-scoring battle snapped a streak in which each of their last three Premier League meetings had totaled 4 goals!  That being said, we love the value here with the low total on this one.  As strong as Arsenal has been defensively this season, they have allowed at least one goal in 4 straight matches (including one in EFL Cup action).  Arsenal has continued to be potent on the attack with an average of 2.2 goals scored in their last 10 matches (including all competitions).  Liverpool is off a 2-2 draw which was their 4th game reaching at least 4 goals in their last 6 Premier League matches.  Liverpool has scored multiple goals in 6 of its last 8 in Premier League matches.  This total has been set low in anticipation of another 'cagey' match between these two clubs and we are going to take advantage!  Arsenal is very healthy for this match and we are aware of the injury issues for Liverpool.  As to that latter fact, Liverpool has enough depth to make up for some of the missing pieces and let's not forget they have a history of giving the Gunners trouble.  In fact the Reds have scored 9 goals in their last 5 visits to Arsenal!  Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The Phoenix Suns (21-15) head to FedExForum as 3.5-point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies (15-20) in a matchup that favors the visitors due to Memphis' fatigue and injury issues. The Grizzlies are coming off a big upset win over the Spurs last night and we predict a letdown. This will also be their second game in as many nights and third in four days. Memphis has also struggled as a home underdog, posting a 7-12 ATS record since the start of last season. On the flip side, we like the Suns to bounce back from a narrow 97-100 loss in Houston a few nights ago, and they've been excellent in this spot with a 10-4 ATS mark this season when coming off a defeat. In those games, Phoenix has won by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. The Suns will also be motivated for payback after dropping a tight 113-114 decision at home to the Grizzlies on October 29th. Adding to the case for Phoenix: Memphis is dealing with a lengthy injury list that could carry over from their January 6th game, including key absences like Ja Morant (calf contusion, out vs. Spurs), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf), and others, severely depleting their backcourt and frontcourt depth. The Suns, meanwhile, boast a balanced attack led by Devin Booker (25.7 PPG) and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

#690 ASA PLAY ON VCU -2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an impressive 13-1 on the season but they’ve faced a very easy schedule to date. The Billikens SOS is 343rd out of 365 teams and they’ve played only 1 true road game this season. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams this year beating Santa Clara by 1 and losing vs Stanford by 1 (both on neutral courts). VCU will actually be the highest rated team St Louis has faced this season. Last year VCU was favored by 10.5 at home vs the Billikens and won by 9 and now we’re getting them right around a pick-em at home. The Rams have already played 4 games vs teams inside the top 60 and while those are their 4 losses (11-4 record), 3 of those games went to the wire vs Utah St, NC State and New Mexico (also lost to Vandy). The teams that have beaten VCU this year have a combined record of 47-9 and all have strength of schedules in the top 120 unlike St Louis. If you look at straight stats, STL has some very impressive overall numbers. However, keep in mind they’ve faced a set off offenses that combines to rank 353rd in efficiency and they’ve played only 1 top 100 offense the entire season. The defenses they’ve faced combine to rank 302nd. Now they face a VCU offense thar ranks 30th in efficiency (the best offense STL has faced this year) and a defense that ranks 76th in efficiency. This is a big home game for the Rams who are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games and they are 23-2 at home since the start of last season. VCU joined the Atlantic 10 conference in 2012 and they are a perfect 9-0 SU at home vs St Louis since then. Let’s lay the small number.

English Premier League: #200146 ASA PLAY ON Brentford Money Line (-120) over Sunderland, Wednesday at 2:30 ET - Two clubs going opposite directions plus we have the revenge angle here.  Brentford lost at Sunderland 2-1 earlier this season and they are out for payback here at home.  Sunderland has been struggling to score goals and has managed only 4 goals in the last 7 matches.  Also, Sunderland is known long-term for struggling more on the road.  The Bees are undefeated in their last 5 Premier League matches and this includes big wins over Everton, Bournemouth and Wolverhampton as Brentford has gone 3-0 with one draw in the last four matches.  The Bees have outscored the opposition by a combined 11-4 over their last 5 Premier League matches and thoug there is the threat of a draw here (which would be a loss for us) the odds are high enough that we are more than comfortable backing the home side to win this match!  We are big on Brentford on the money line in this one.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings +5.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 11pm ET - This is as much a bet against Dallas as it is on Sacramento. The Kings have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In fact, their last win was at Dallas on December 27th 113-107. They were a +3-point home dog in that game and are now catching a premium number with one of their best players returning from injury. Zach LaVine missed the last go around with Dallas but he’s back for the Kings now who desperately need his scoring. The Mavericks have lost 7 straight road games and have a 3-12 SU road record this season yet are laying points here? The Kings trailed the Bucks in their most recent game by as many as 26-points but battled back to make it respectable in the 4th Q. Dallas is the much better defensive team but offensively they are just average which makes it tough for them to win by margin. The Kings have the worst average margin of victory in the NBA at -12ppg, but the Mavs aren’t much better at -4.0ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Kings have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings with Dallas. We expect another tight game in this series tonight.

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-125) - Columbus at San Jose, Tuesday at 10:07 PM ET - Alex Nedeljkovic was the first goalie off the ice at the morning skate for the Sharks today and that is an indication he will be starting in goal for this one tonight.  News also came out this morning that Jet Greaves, as was expected, is the likely starter for the Blue Jackets in this one tonight.  The Sharks Nedeljkovic was in goal in relief of a struggling Yaroslav Askarov in San Jose's 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay and he allowed 4 goals on just 16 shots!  This is nothing new as his last 3 appearances have seen Nedeljkovic allow 11 goals on 55 shots for an ugly .800 save percentage since mid-December.  The Jackets Greaves had been faring much better but has been streaky this season.  He started hot and then went cold and then got hot again.  This is quite normal for a guy not used to being an everyday NHL starter and he could be starting another tough run.  He has allowed at least 3 goals in 2 of his last 3 appearances and was in goal for the Blue Jackets 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend.  In terms of the trending of these two clubs in the offensive zone, Columbus has scored 3.7 goals per game in their last 6 games and compiled a solid 4-1-1 record during this stretch.  San Jose has scored 4.3 goals per game in going 3-1 in their last 4 games.  Including all scoring, including wins via OT goals, this Sharks team has tallied an average of 4 goals in their last 10 games.  We like them to score well here on Greaves and the Blue Jackets but again the weakness of San Jose is in goal and defensively.  In fact, the Sharks have allowed 29 goals in their last 6 games on home ice!  Yes even at home the Sharks just can't stop teams.  This one should be a back and forth exciting thriller as another key component is special teams.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack for power plays this season and yet both are near the bottom of the league on the penalty kill.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in San Jose

#656 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming -4.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - UNLV has a 7-6 record yet they’ve only left the state of Nevada twice this year with the last time coming back on December 7th. They already have 5 losses vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and if you throw out their loss vs Alabama (lost by 37) the average ranking of the opponents they’ve lost to is 182nd (Wyoming is ranked 103rd per KenPom). The Cowboys will actually be the 4th best team UNLV has faced this season and Wyoming will come into this one with a chip on their shoulder after getting smoked @ New Mexico over the weekend (we were on NM). The Rebels are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting just 28% (336th) and Wyoming defends the are very well allowing just 29% (33rd) so we can expect very little from beyond the arc for UNLV. The Cowboys (10-4 record) are the better shooting team overall and from deep and their PPG margin on the year is +12 (UNLV is +5). At home they are winning by an average of +17 PPG and they are the better FT shooting team (73% to 67%). Wyoming should control the glass here (33rd in rebound rated vs UNLV who is 170th) and their offensive rebounding (49th nationally) should lead to a number of second chances (UNLV 244th in defensive rebounding). The Cowboys have bounced back with wins after their first 3 losses this year, 2 coming by double digits, and we expect them to pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -6.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - A&M is 11-3 on the season and Auburn is 9-5 but this is one of the more drastic strength of schedule disparities you’ll see. The Tigers have played the 7th most difficult schedule thus far already facing 8 top 100 teams including 3 ranked in the top 4 nationally per KenPom (Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue). You can also throw in Houston who is ranked 11th. A&M’s strength of schedule ranks 320th and they’ve played half their games (7) vs teams currently ranked 295th or lower. The Aggies haven’t left the state of Texas in over a month and they’ve only played 2 true road games this year @ Pitt (8 point win) and @ Oklahoma State (24 point loss). The Aggies are 1-3 vs top 75 teams with their only win coming at home over the weekend 75-72 vs LSU in a game the Tigers played without guard Dedan Thomas (16 PPG & 7 APG). Auburn is coming off a 4 point OT loss at a very good Georgia team (26th per KenPom) in a game that Shot Quality stats had the Tigers actually winning by 9 points. Auburn has quality wins over St Johns, Oregon, and NC State, all by double digits with 2 of those wins coming away from home. They are also undefeated at home this year and their only 3 losses at home since the start of the 2023 season were vs Kentucky (in 2023), Bama (in OT), and Florida (last year’s National Champion) last year. In their home games this year the Tigers are shooting 54% overall and nearly 40% from deep while averaging 97 PPG. The Aggies have fallen off drastically in their few road games hitting 38% of their shots and scoring 72 PPG (they average 100 PPG at home mainly vs terrible competition). To put the disparity of opponents into perspective, Auburn has faced the 4th most difficult set of offenses this year and the 17th most difficult set of defenses. The Aggies have faced the 260th most difficult set of offenses and the 350th most difficult set of defenses. Auburn won by double digits last year here vs A&M and they are in “need to win” mode coming off a loss. Let’s lay it.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, 7:40pm ET - The Celtics are coming off an extended road trip on the West coast and will have 1 day rest heading into this contest with the Bulls. Boston put up 146 points against the Clippers but had an exceptional shooting night at 55% overall, 47% from Deep. Boston’s defense has allowed 116 or less points in 8 of their last ten games. The Bulls are going to have a hard team reaching 110+ points this game for a couple of reasons. One, we just mention how well the Celtics defense is playing, and two, the Bulls offense is struggling. Chicago is down 3 starters right now and it’s played a major role in their offense which has scored 110 or less in 4 of their last six games. In that 6-game stretch the Bulls has an eFG% of 51.3%, the 5th lowest percentage in the NBA. Chicago has the 3rd worst offensive rating over that same 6 game period. On the plus side for the Bulls, their defense has been significantly better in recent games with the 12th best defensive rating since December 23rd. In the four meetings between these two teams a year ago, three stayed well below this number. We are on the UNDER in this one.

#873/874 ASA PLAY ON Under 156.5 Points – Nebraska vs Ohio St, Monday at 6:30 PM ET - This total is historically high for these 2 Big 10 rivals. Prior to this, the previous 10 meetings only one total was set above 150 and that was 152. The average total set in this series since 2020 is 144.5. Both teams have high level defenses with Nebraska ranking 18th in defensive efficiency, 21st in eFG% allowed, and 45th in 3 point FG% allowed. OSU ranks 75th, 67th and 38th in those 3 key defensive metrics. Both defenses also make teams work a long time to get shots ranking in the top 50 in opponent’s average possession length. We don’t expect many points from the FT line in this game as Nebraska really limits fouling with opponents scoring only 15% of their points from the charity stripe this year (top 20) and teams are making only 10 FT’s per game vs the Huskers (top 10). On the other end they don’t get to the FT line very often (300th in % of points from the stripe) and 270th in FT’s made per game. Neither team is fast paced with both ranking in the 160’s for adjusted tempo. Our projections have this total at 149 and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points here so we’ll grab the Under.

#831 ASA PLAY ON Bradley +5 over Murray State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value here on Bradley facing a Murray State team that is on an 8 game winning streak. 5 of those 8 wins came by single digits and they only double digit wins during that stretch came vs teams ranked 310th and 249th. Bradley was just a 4.5 point dog @ Belmont on Thursday, a team that ranks 30 spots higher than Murray State per KenPom. The Braves lost that game by 10 points with Belmont shooting 55% and making 11 more FT’s. Belmont never led in the 2nd have by double digits until 20 seconds left in the game. We expect the Bradley defense (ranked 103rd in efficiency) to bounce back strong in this game. They create turnovers at a 22% rate (12th in the country) which should lead to extra possessions. Murray State’s offense has very good numbers but they’ve faced a group of defensive teams whose average rank is outside the top 300 in efficiency. The Braves should excel offensively in this game as well. The Racers defense isn’t great allowing 78 PPG and they rank 264th in opponent’s FG%. They’ve been winning tight games all season and each of their last 3 was decided by 6 points or less. Bradley should keep this close throughout and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers 3pm ET - The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and have currently lost 11 straight games. On the year, Indiana has a 1-15 SU road record with an average loss margin of -13.8ppg. Orlando on the other hand has been solid overall and very good at home with an 11-5 record on their home court. Orlando is coming off a loss to the Bulls in their last game and will look to rebound here with a much better effort against a Pacers team they barely beat last week. The Magic were just favored by -4.5 points at Indiana so the number on Sunday’s game is a bargain. In the Pacers 11-game losing streak only 4 of the eleven losses have come by single digits. Easy call with the home team Magic in this one.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at NY Giants, Sunday 1pm ET - The Giants have everything to play for here…essentially the 2nd pick in the draft next year so losing is a priority. New York is 3-13 on the year and owns the tiebreaker among the 3-13 teams. A win here could potentially drop them all the way down to the 8th spot. Dallas on the other hand is middle of the pack this season at 7-8-1 and are mainly playing for incentive bonuses or player statistics. QB Dak Prescott currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with WR Pickens and Lamb both top 10 receiving yards, so they’ll likely look to pad stats against a bad Giants defense. The Cowboys put up more yards offensively than any other team in the NFL at 399ypg while averaging 6.2YPP (4th). The Boys will have success moving the football against a Giants D that is 29th in total yards per game allowed at 364ypg and 27th in YPP defense giving up 6.1YPP. The Giants won last week in Las Vegas against a team that has quit on the season and was playing for the #1 pick in next year's draft. The Giants have average offensive statistics on the season ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in YPP at 5.4 so they can’t exploit a horrible Cowboys defense which is just as bad as their own. Dallas had a few extra days to prepare for this game and should get a win by a TD or more.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43.5 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1pm ET - This is a division game so even though neither team has anything to play for, we still expect the offenses to put up points against the other team’s defense. In watching film from last week’s games one thing is very apparent. The amount of poor tackling and lack of effort defensively is rampant with teams that have nothing to play for. The Falcons head coach Morris is coaching for his job, QB Cousins is making a statement to teams that he can still play and RB Robinson has a shot at some attainable records. The Saints were eliminated a long time ago but have continued to play well with their future QB Tyler Shough who has thrown for 2,125 yards with 9/5 TD/INT ratio while completing 70% of his passes. Last week the Saints put up 423 total yards against the Titans at 8.5YPP. New Orleans has scored 20, 29 and 34 points in the past three games and is averaging 6.1YPP in that same span. The Falcons offense has come alive with Cousins under center in recent weeks with 29, 26 and 27 points in the past three weeks. Atlanta is also averaging 6.1YPP in that 3-game stretch and let’s not forget, one of those games was against a Rams defense that is one of the best in the league. The Saints defense has been playing well in recent games, but the numbers have come against some league’s worst offenses (Titans, Jets, Panthers). The Falcons defense has given up 24 plus points in 8 of their last ten games and haven’t been able to stop anyone of late. Three of the last four meetings in Atlanta has resulted in 50+ points. With both defenses potentially on vacation already and two offenses still clicking, we expect a high scoring game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, 9:40pm ET - These two teams have been stellar on the defensive side of the court but the offenses have been even better of late. For the season the Celtics rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency ratings at 1.218 points per possession. The Clippers are 12-21 SU on the season but have the 11th best oEFF at 1.160PPP. In their last 5-games the Clippers oEFF is off the charts at 1.325PPP which is best in the league. Boston stays consistent with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating over the last 5 games at 1.229PPP. The Celtics have the 7th best eFG% in the NBA at 56%, the Clippers are 11th at 55.2%. Both teams are shooting better than their season numbers over their last 5-games too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will finish 11-points less than an average NBA game this season but with how these offenses are playing this one gets to that 232 range.

#770 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -2.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting a really good team, off a loss, at home with a low number in this one. UCSD is 11-3 on the season and 8-3-1 ATS. They should be extra motivated in this game coming off a rough road loss @ Cal Poly as a 9 point favorite. The Tritons led nearly the entire game and actually never trailed in the 2nd half until Cal Poly took a 66-65 lead with 18 seconds left in the game and won 67-65. UCSD didn’t score a single point over the last 3:49 in that loss. We expect a big bounce back at home where they have won 32 of their last 37 games. Hawaii is 11-2 on the year but they’ve played the 2nd easiest schedule in college hoops thus far. They have 1 win vs a top 200 team and the 2 top 100 teams they played they lost to both. Compare that to San Diego who has 6 wins vs top 200 teams this season. On top of that, Hawaii has played 11 home games, where they obviously have a huge advantage over opponents who have to make the long travel, and only 2 road games. Their most recent game was an easy win @ a bad UC Riverside team and now the Rainbows had to stay stateside to face UCSD 48 hours later. To give you an idea of how easy Hawaii’s schedule has been, thus far they’ve faced the 353rd most difficult schedule of offensive teams and the 362nd most difficult schedule of defensive teams. Even with that, the Tritons have been the better shooting team overall and from beyond the arc this season despite playing the much more difficult slate. The Rainbows have beaten 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record (Utah Tech is 9-7 & UC Davis is 8-5) and the combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 54-78. UCSD was favored by 15.5 vs Hawaii here at home last year and won by 39 points. Now we’re getting them near a pick-em. We’ll gladly take UC San Diego in this game.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, 7pm ET - Both teams come into this game having played last night and will be unrested. Each is also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. In recent years, teams playing without rest have favored the UNDER and tonight we have two teams involved in that trend. Last night the Bulls didn’t play at their typical high rate but scored 121 points as a result of shooting 50% from the field overall and 34% from Deep. Charlotte also put up 121 points against the Bucks last night, and like the Bulls, had a very good shooting night of 49% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Chicago’s pace of play for the season is 2nd fastest in the league at 102.7 but in their most recent 5 games that number has dipped slightly to 101.5. The Bulls are also shorthanded, so depth becomes a concern. Charlotte is 23rd in pace of play at 98.9 possessions per game and has been slower yet in their last 5 games at 96.2. Given the difficult scheduling situation that both teams are in, we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.

#756 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 MWC teams have the same record at 10-3 yet New Mexico has played a strength of schedule nearly 200 spots higher than Wyoming (319th SOS for Wyoming & 126th for the Lobos). We’re also getting a very good New Mexico team coming off a loss @ Boise State in a game Shot Quality metrics had the Lobos winning the game. Now we get them back at home where they are 8-0 this season and 24-1 since the start of last year. The Lobos already have 3 top 100 wins crushing a very good Santa Clara team here at home (98-71), beating Mississippi State on a neutral court, and topping a very good VCU team on the road. Wyoming’s best win on the season was vs South Dakota State who ranks 177th per KenPom. They are 0-3 vs top 150 teams losing to Texas Tech, Sam Houston State, and Grand Canyon. It’s the Cowboys 2nd straight road game after beating a bad Air Force team (ranked 328th) on the road Tuesday night 68-56. Air Force was able to keep the game fairly close (trailed by 5 with 3:00 remaining in the game) despite getting outscored by 13 points from the FT line and by a whopping 27 points from beyond the arc. AF only made 1 of their 12 three point shots. Based on those 2 things alone that game should have been a blowout and Wyoming was unable to pull away. The Cowboys have decent, not great, numbers ranking 110th in offensive efficiency and 84th in defensive efficiency but they’ve faced a schedule where their offensive opponents have an average efficiency rating of 301st and an average defensive efficiency rating of 332nd. The Lobos have similar offensive numbers ranking 119th in offensive efficiency and much better defensive numbers ranking 46th in defensive efficiency. That’s vs a schedule with an average offensive efficiency rating of 110th and an average defensive efficiency ranting of 132nd. The Lobo defense is very good at creating turnovers (64th nationally) and they should have a big edge at the FT line where they make 77% and are facing a Wyoming D that allowed opponents to score almost 30% of their points from the charity stripe this season (2nd worst in the nation). We like the Lobos to bounce back for a double digit win tonight.

#884 ASA PLAY ON California -4 over Notre Dame, Friday at 11 PM ET - We like this spot for Cal coming off a 20 point home loss vs a very good Louisville team. This is also a fade spot for the Irish who won as a dog @ Stanford on Tuesday. Notre Dame was a 7 point dog in that game and now they are only +4.5 vs a Cal team that ranks nearly 20 spots higher than Stanford per KenPom. Stanford shot brutally bad in that game making only 13 of their 56 shots (23%) and just 4 of 30 from beyond the arc. While ND’s defense is solid (top 50 in efficiency), they aren’t that good. Just one of those poor shooting nights and even with those horrible shooting numbers from the Cardinal, the game was still tight with the Irish winning 47-40. Cal was roasted at home by Louisville (ranked 11th per KenPom) on Tuesday and their effort on the boards was poor (-19). Head coach Mark Madsen was disappointed with his team’s physicality in that game and mentioned, “the Notre Dame game is a huge game for us.” They don’t want to drop to 0-2 in the ACC with 2 road games on deck at UVA and Va Tech. Expect a much better effort tonight from the Bears. Prior to that setback, the Bears only loss on the year was @ Kansas State by 3 points. Cal has been at home since mid November while the Irish have been on the west coast since Monday and will be playing their 2nd of back to back roadies. Cal can score averaging 82 PPG and they make nearly 40% of their triples (17th nationally). ND only averages 65 PPG on the road this year and they are without their leading scorer Markus Burton (18 PPG) who was lost for the season a few weeks ago. They are 3-1 since Burton was injured but they did lose at home vs IPFW during that stretch and Cal will be the highest rated team they’ve faced since his injury. This one sets up nicely as a bounce back game for the Bears and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9 pm ET - The Kings are coming off a hard-fought game last night against the Celtics and now face a rested Suns team in their building. Sacramento is shorthanded right now with LaVine and Sabonis both out with injuries. LaVine leads the team in scoring, Sabonis leads them in rebounding. The Kings struggle to play without rest with a 5-16 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 10+ points per game. Phoenix has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 19-14 Su record, 10-5 at home. Phoenix has solid numbers overall and rank top half of the league in efficiency differential at +1.4. In comparison, the Kings are 29th in eDIFF at -11.3. These two teams met in late November in Sacramento and the Suns won by 12-points. The Suns had won 4 straight games but are now coming off a loss to the Cavs and they’ve excelled in that situation this season with a 9-4 ATS mark. The Suns have beaten the Kings in 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix and tonight we expect this game to get ugly late.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Navy -7 over Cincinnati, Friday at 4:30 PM ET @ Memphis, TN - One thing we know about service academies in bowl games and that is they are all in. They only have 1 opt out so they will basically be in tact for this game as they always are for bowls. Navy has won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and service academies are huge money makers this time of year going 19-3 ATS in bowls since 2003. Cincinnati is on the other end of the spectrum. They have a ton of opt outs including a huge number of key defensive players. The Bearcats will also be without their starting QB Sorsby who accounted for over 65% of Cincinnati’s total yardage this season. His back up Lichtenberg has 333 career passing yards and it looks like he will split time with freshman Jones who has taken only 2 snaps this season. That tells us that this Cincinnati staff is looking toward next year to see what they have and maybe not completely focused on winning this game. It’s really tough to defend the Navy offense if you’re not used to playing against it. They will have to play their most focused game of the season on that side of the ball and that might be tough with a bunch of back ups. Navy leads the country in rushing yards at 290 YPG on nearly 6.0 YPC. The Bearcat D allowed 174 YPG on the ground which ranked 97th. Not a great match up. On top of that, Navy actually threw the ball well this season with veteran QB Horvath averaging over 130 YPG through the air. Don’t be surprised if Navy hits some big plays through the air vs a Cincy team missing their entire starting secondary in this game. The Bearcats D was shredded down the stretch for 36.5 PPG over their last 4 and Navy will have big time success here. The Midshipmen are viewing this as their “second” Super Bowl only behind their game with Army. We already saw Army crush a disinterested UConn team 41-16 in their bowl game. Similar spot here and while we don’t expect the score to be that lopsided, we would be completely surprised if it was. Navy by 10+ in this one.

#266 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -16 over Rice, Friday at 1 PM ET @ Fort Worth, TX - We’re pretty sure Rice won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard here. They are facing a potent Texas State offense that averages 36 PPG on 476 YPG (8th in the country). The Bobcats have put up at least 40 points 5 times this season and they’ve been held under 30 just twice vs James Madison (top 10 defense) and Arizona State. They are very balanced averaging 220 YPG rushing and 256 YPG passing. They are facing a Rice defense that ranks 127th in total defense and allowed 50+ points in each of their last 2 regular season games. The Owls defense doesn’t have a strength as they rank 95th vs the run and 127th vs the pass. They are the only team in the country to allow points on EVERY redzone appearance by their opponents this year. That’s 37 redzone trips by their opponents and 37 scores (28 TD’s). On the other side, the Rice offense is far from explosive averaging just 19 PPG this season. They can’t pass at all (97 YPG passing) so if they get way behind, which we anticipate here, it’s tough for them to come back. They’ll also be down to their 3rd string QB here, who took a grand total of 37 snaps this season, as their starter and back up have both entered the transfer portal. If they only scored 19 PPG with their top QB and a full offense how are they going to keep up in this game? The Texas State defense should be able to focus almost solely on the run here which will make it tough for the Rice offense. The Owls finished 5-7 (11th place) in at average at best AAC conference. The only reason they got into this bowl is there weren’t enough willing teams to play so they were asked. Texas State should roll in this game.

ASAwins NBA play on Miami Heat +4.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - We mentioned this the other day, depending on the exact circumstances, but we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Detroit. The Pistons were on the road for 5 straight games on the West coast which ended with a win against the Lakers. The betting markets are also telling us to back the Heat here as the line on this game is trending down despite a high volume of tickets and money on the Pistons. Detroit is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with a plus/minus in those games of +5.6. Miami is .500 as a road dog in that same time frame but their +/- is -3.1ppg in that scenario. The Pistons are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.2% but the Heat allow opponents to make just 45.6% which is 4th best defensively. The Pistons rely on forcing turnovers with their defense (3rd) but the Heat take care of the basketball with the 4th best TOV% in the league. This has been a very tight series in the past with the last 4 meetings all decided by 3-points or less and two of the last four went to OT. We expect another tight game on Thursday.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#734 ASA PLAY ON Wright State -5 over UW Milwaukee, Thursday at 2 PM ET - This spot heavily favors Wright State from a situational standpoint. They have been home since mid December and this will be their 4th consecutive home game. They have some momentum coming off back to back wins over Eastern Michigan and Oakland. They’ve been off since Monday so they should be set and ready for this one. UWM, on the other hand, played an important conference home game on Monday vs IPFW, then played @ Wisconsin the next night (Tuesday), and now they are in Dayton less than 40 hours after their game vs the Badgers came to an end. The Panthers bussed to Chicago after their game vs Wisconsin and flew into Dayton early on Wednesday. On top of that, their next game is @ rival UW Green Bay. Rough scheduling spot to say the least. Milwaukee is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cleveland State who ranks 323rd per KenPom and has a 2-10 record vs D1 opponents this season. Besides Wisconsin on Tuesday (20 point loss), Wright State will be the highest rated opponent UWM has faced since November. The Panthers have played the slightly better strength of schedule and have better straight FG% numbers on offense and defense as well as better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Milwaukee’s shooting numbers aren’t great (286th in FG% and 275th from 3) and on the road their shooting drops significantly. We don’t expect that to change with a high probability of tired legs for Milwaukee. Wright State is hitting 52% of their shots at home while averaging 82 PPG. We like the Raiders to cover this game at home.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Washington Wizards +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - The Bucks have Giannis back in the lineup, but the facts are they weren’t great with him early this season and we’re not sure they should be laying double-digits here. On the season the Bucks have the 20th rated Net rating at -2.8 and they currently sit 11th in the East. Washington has a season long Net rating of -11.9 but in their last 10 games they’ve played significantly better with a Net rating of -3.8. In fact, in comparing each teams last 10 games we see the Wiz have a better scoring differential of -3.4ppg versus the Bucks at -5.1ppg. Historically we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Milwaukee as they just played 5 straight away from home. The Wizards are 2-1 SU their last 3 games with solid wins against the Raptors and Grizzlies before a 14-point loss to the Suns. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two teams with the series tied 1-1 and we expect Washington to keep this game close.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -20 over St Joes, Wednesday at 4 PM ET - St Joes has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (333rd SOS) yet they already have 5 losses. They’ve only beaten 1 team ranked inside the top 250 and they are 0-4 in true road games. The Hawks have dropped nearly 100 spots in the KenPom rankings since the start of the year and now barely sit inside the top 200 (197th). Their situation isn’t ideal as their head coach left in September to join the NY Knicks staff leaving them in limbo. They did hire Penn coach Steve Donahue who had losing seasons in 3 of his last 4 years for the Quakers. His system doesn’t necessarily fit the players on this team. The Hawks are a poor shooting team ranking outside the top 320 in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are facing an elite St Louis D that ranks inside the top 10 in the nation in both FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. The Billikens are also outstanding on offense ranking 16th in FG% and scoring over 90 PPG (3rd in the nation). STL’s only loss came by 1 point @ Stanford and they’ve already topped 3 top 100 teams this season. 8 of their 12 wins have come by more than 20 points and they topped St Joe’s here by 16 last year and this year’s STL team is currently ranked nearly 100 spots higher than last year’s team while this year’s St Joe’s team is currently more than 100 spots lower than last year’s team. St Louis will be the highest rated team the Hawks have played so far this season and this one could get ugly.

#249 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +5.5 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Iowa is healthy for this one and they’ll have their full roster in tact for this game according to head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes finished with an 8-4 record and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less. That includes a tight 5 point loss vs #1 Indiana and a 2 point loss vs Oregon, both CFP teams. This team rarely loses by margin including the post-season as they are 4-3 SU in bowl games since 2017 with 2 of those losses coming by 3 points. They’ve only lost 7 games by 10 or more points in their last 52 contests and 5 of those setbacks came at the hands of Ohio St, Michigan, or Penn St. The defense simply finds a way to shut teams down. Even high level offensive teams. This year they held Indiana to 20 points (they average 39 PPG), USC to 26 points (they average 36 PPG) and Oregon to 18 points (they average 37 points). Iowa ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D (15 PPG allowed) and they are at full strength with a full key pieces back from injury. Vandy’s offense has been very good this year but they’ve had a few bumps in the road vs high level defenses. They only faced 2 teams that ended the year in the top 25 in total defense and scored 14 and 17 points in those 2 games (vs Bama & Missouri). Vanderbilt QB Pavia had a really good year but he seems to be a bit distracted right now with his Heisman trophy presentation antics (basically ripped on the voters for not selecting him) and he has filed a lawsuit to attempt to play again next year despite using up his eligibility. We think Iowa’s defense will give him big problems. Iowa’s offense can be tough to watch at times but they did average 29 PPG this season and topped 30 points in half of their games (6). The Commodores defense is solid but not great ranking 55th in total D and 59th in YPP allowed. We think Iowa does enough on offense to keep this game close. They are 3-0-1 ATS as a dog this year and we like them to cover this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 242.5 Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET - The Jazz have put up two consecutive great offensive games against defenses that rate better than Boston’s. Utah scored 131 against the Pistons who rate 2nd in defensive efficiency this season and 127 against the Spurs who are 6th. The Celtics rank 15th in dEFF. We also know the Jazz are going to give up a big number defensively as they allow the most points per game at 127.1ppg and have the 2nd worst dEFF at 1.225PPP. The Jazz routinely give up 130 plus points and the Celtics, who take and make a high volume of 3’s should get to 130+. Boston is 10th in 3PT% at 36.4% and 3rd in 3PT attempts at 42.8 per game. The Jazz rank 27th in 3PT% defense and 30th in 3-pointers made per game. The Jazz will also get their fair share of 3-pointers in this game as they rank 8th in attempts and 9th in makes from beyond the arc. Boston’s defense can be exploited from beyond the arc as they rank 24th in 3PT%, 22nd in 3PT makes and 23rd in attempts allowed. We see both teams getting to 120 or more in this one which will cash this OVER in the low 240’s.

#609 ASA PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marquette is a poor offensive team and they are in trouble here vs one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Golden Eagles rank 335th in FG% and 313th in 3 point FG% and they are facing a Seton Hall defense that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and 6th in the nation allowing just 62 PPG. They are also one of the top teams in the country at creating turnovers on 24% of opponent’s possessions (5th in the country). The Pirates are 11-2 on the season and they are coming off a 64-56 loss vs Villanova on December 23rd to give them a little extra motivation here. On top of that, they lost both games vs Marquette last year so we can expect the Hall to be focused in this game. They’ve already beaten 3 top 100 teams away from home (road or neutral) topping NC State by 11 (ranked 27th per KenPom), won @ Kansas State by 11 (KSU ranked 73rd), and won @ Providence by 5 (ranked 75th). Marquette has 5 wins on the season all vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 0-6 vs teams inside the top 100 (Seton Hall currently ranked 48th) and 4 of those losses have come by 20 or more points. The Golden Eagles have already lost 3 home games this season and 2 of those losses came vs teams ranked outside the top 100. The offense has already been struggling and it won’t get any better as they just kicked their 3rd leading scorer, Zaide Lowery, off the team. Marquette has some issues going on and they are drastically overvalued with a 2-10 ATS record. We like Seton Hall to win this one comfortably.

#245/246 ASA PLAY ON Over 61 Points – Tennessee vs Illinois, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - Tennessee is missing some starters in this game but far more on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looks like they’ll have most of their key players in tact for this game including starting QB Aguilar who had a stellar season throwing for 3500 yards and 24 TD’s. He’ll be missing starting WR Brazell, but other than that, the offense looks good. That’s bad news for the Illini D as the Vols were as potent as they come on offense ranking 6th in the nation in total offense while scoring an average of 41 PPG. This team put up 30+ points in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Illinois defense wasn’t great this season (54th in total D) and when they tried to defend elite offenses, they stunk. They faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (OSU, Indiana, and USC) and allowed an average of 43 PPG in those games. The Vols should get plenty of chances here as they play very fast (6th in seconds per play) and they average 72 plays per game. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s weakness is absolutely their defense that ranks 85th in YPG allowed and while allowing 29 PPG. If we take out their non-conference weakling opponents (ETSU, Syracuse, UAB, and New Mexico St), the Vols allowed 34 PPG and all but 1 of their SEC opponents scored 30+. They will also be missing a bunch of key guys on that side of the ball. Illinois can score if pushed, and they will be pushed in this one. They average 29 PPG and put up 30+ in half of those games. They were shut down by 2 top 5 defenses, OSU and Indiana, and if we subtract those games the Illini are averaging 33 PPG. Starting QB Altmyer is in on this game (2800 yards passing and 21 TDs) and he should have a field day vs a UT defense that ranked 115th in YPG allowed through the air and 124th in opponent completion percentage. Weather looks decent for this game in Nashville with cool temps (40’s) but very light winds. This looks like a shootout.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams have gone Over in 4 straight games as their offense continues to be a juggernaut. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 7 of their last 9 games and they topped 40 in 3 of those. They lead the NFL in total offense, YPP, and scoring. The Rams have scored a TD on over 35% of their offensive possessions which is the best in the NFL. Atlanta’s D ranks outside the top 20 in opponent’s scoring and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Birds have faced 5 top 10 scoring offenses this year and allowed over 25 PPG in those contests. The Rams will put up points in this one as they do on almost everyone. Can Atlanta score enough to push this over the total? Yes. The Falcons have been solid on offense scoring at least 23 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Kirk Cousins has settled in at QB and had a nice run throwing 5 TD’s in his last 2 games leading the Falcons to 29 and 26 points. Cousins has faced LA Ram head coach McVay 3 times in his career and his teams have averaged 27 PPG in those games. He has a solid running game (8th in the NFL) as well to take the pressure off him. The LA D has allowed at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and with the Falcons offense humming, they’ll do enough on offense to push this Over the total. Perfect conditions in the Dome in Atlanta and this looks like a high scoring game.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 pm ET - The Spurs are legit and can contend in the West and for a Championship, despite their youth. Cleveland has faded after a hot start going 10-13 SU in their last 23 games. In the month of November, the Cavs were 9-6 SU with an average plus/minus of +4.9ppg. In December they are 5-7 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -0.7ppg. The Spurs on the other hand are red hot right now with a 10-2 run and an average +/- of +8.3ppg in their last 12 games and that included 3 games against the Thunder. Cleveland is near average in team FG% defense and rank 16th in defensive efficiency ratings. In comparison, the Spurs are 7th in dEFF. Offensively the Spurs have the edge with the 6th best offensive efficiency, the Cavs rank 10th. Cleveland has struggled to make shots this season with the 19th rated FG% shooting at 46.4% and don’t make 3’s either at 34.9% (22nd). We like the Spurs at this short number.

#241/242 ASA PLAY ON Under 60 Points – Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern, Monday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Sun Belt Rivals met already this season with Ga Southern jumping out to a 19-3 halftime lead and holding only to win 25-23. That total in that game was set at 61 and this one is set just 1.5 to 2 points lower which isn’t enough of an adjustment in our opinion. Lots of key offensive players that played in the first match up won’t be around for this one. Especially on the App State side where 70% of the offensive production in that first game won’t be playing in this bowl game. App State’s top 2 QB’s, Kohl and Swann, who combined for 3,000 passing yards and 22 TD’s are in the transfer portal. The Mountaineers are left with a redshirt freshman and a true freshman who combined to throw for 160 yards this season in mop up duty. The Mountaineers will also be without top WR’s Barnes and Dozier who combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 TD’s. ASU does have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman playing so look for them to lean on the run in this game with inexperienced QB’s and some key WR weapons out. Georgia Southern is in a bit better shape offensively but they could be without their #1 weapon RB Arnold who is injured and didn’t play in the regular season finale. Arnold had 140 total yards in their meeting with App State this year. This is a big time rivalry game so these teams know each other very well. Neither defense has very good numbers this season but they’ll come to play here and they know the opposing offensive schemes well. The weather in Birmingham for this game will be less than ideal for scoring with windchills in the 30’s and 15+ MPH winds. Only 2 of the last 12 meetings between these 2 have topped 60 points and we don’t expect them to get there in this game.

#429/430 ASA PLAY ON Over 52.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - 2 explosive offenses and not so great defenses should lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Let’s start with the Niners offense. They haven’t punted since November! Yes you read that correctly. In their last 2 games they’ve scored 85 points on 18 offensive possessions. That includes 10 TD’s, 5 FG’s, a missed FG, an interception, and a fumble. Since QB Purdy returned from an injury, the Niners have gone 5-0 both SU and ATS and they’ve averaged 34.4 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks 25th in total D, 28th in YPP allowed, and the Bears are giving up 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th in the NFL). The SF offense should continue their big time offensive success in this game. On the defensive side, the 49ers have not been great as of late. They have allowed 51 points in their last 2 games and forced only 4 total punts in those 2 games. Those games were vs Tennessee (31st in total offense & 30th in scoring) and Indy with Philip Rivers playing in his first game at QB directly off the couch. Now they are facing a Chicago offense that is averaging 26 PPG (9th in the NFL) and they lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Bears also average 14 plays per game of more than 10 yards which is the most in the NFL. Looks like perfect weather in Santa Clara on Sunday night and we should be plenty of offensive snaps with both teams in the top 10 in seconds per play. This looks like a game where both offenses will have to “keep up” with the other and a shootout is very likely.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Niners have a lot to play for. If they win out, they lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and home field all the way through the Super Bowl if they can make it that far. The Super Bowl is being played at the home stadium in Santa Clara. This offense has been lights out averaging nearly 35 PPG over their last 5. They haven’t punted since November! Brock Purdy is back on QB and he is a perfect 5-0 both SU & ATS winning all 5 games by double digits. They are in a quite a battle with the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The Bears most likely will win the NFC North as their magic number is 1. They just need 1 win in their final 2 games or 1 loss by Green Bay in their final 2 games. The defense has been poor on the road allowing 29 PPG which doesn’t match up well with SF’s potent offense. They’ll struggle to slow down the San Francisco passing offense which ranks #1 in the NFL in success rate. Chicago’s pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete over 66% of their passes (22nd) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (28th). The Niners are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite facing a Chicago team that has been outgained by 1.1 YPP on the road and outscored by 4 PPG away from home. These teams have the same record (both 11-4) but San Francisco’s point differential is more than twice that of Chicago (+74 for SF and +33 for the Bears). On top of that, the Niners have a -4 turnover differential on the season while Chicago is +21 (by far the best in the NFL) yet they have the same record. That speaks volumes as to how much better SF is. If San Fran doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch here, they win this game by more than a TD.

#306547 ASA PLAY ON Winthrop +18 over Texas Tech, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wouldn’t be surprised if Tech is a bit flat here which wouldn’t be ideal vs a very solid Winthrop team. The Red Raiders are coming off a huge, upset win over Duke at Madison Square Garden back on December 20th. They erased a 17 point deficit and made a FT with 3 seconds remaining to win 82-81. They’ve had 9 days to bask in the glow of that win AND they start Big 12 play facing Oklahoma State next. Winthrop is 8-6 on the year and ranked 122nd per KenPom. Their 6 losses have all come by 6 points or less including 3 top 100 teams. The Eagles lost @ Arkansas by 1 and @ Nebraska by 7, two teams power ranked very similar to Texas Tech. Winthrop is a very dangerous dog, especially a large underdog, for a number of reasons. First they are experienced with all seniors in the starting lineup and a few more contributing off the bench. Second, the Eagles shoot the ball very well hitting 37% of their triples (58th in the country) and they are very efficient on offense (top 60 in offense efficiency). They are a good rebounding team and they don’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate) limiting extra possessions for their opponent. Lastly, this team can score. They average 90 PPG and even vs their top 100 opponents they are averaging 82 PPG. It’s really difficult to pull away from a team that can put points on the board like Winthrop can. The Red Raiders haven’t been elite on defense this season ranking 293rd in opponents FG% and 228th defending the arc. We highly doubt they’ll shut down Winthrop’s offense. Let’s take the huge points here.

#422 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +6 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We faded the Bucs last week and picked up a win and they continue to be priced as if they are much better than they actually are. We know they “need to” win as they battle for the NFC South crown but throw that out the window. Often times that doesn’t matter and it’s already priced into the number. In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, teams that have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive vs teams that have been eliminated have been a big time money burner. Those “have to” win teams are 69-109 ATS dating back to 1990 including 0-1 this year with Minnesota beating Detroit on Xmas day as an underdog. Tampa continues to be overpriced as they’ve now lost 7 straight ATS and 6 of their last 7 SU yet they are nearly a TD favorite on the road here? Their only outright win since October was at home vs Arizona and the Bucs were outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in that win. The defense hasn’t been good (27th in YPP allowed) and the offense has tanked since October. Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only Cleveland, NYJ, and Las Vegas. They haven’t been explosive on that side of the ball gaining 10 or more yards on just 21% of their passing plays over that span which is 30th in the league. Miami is off back to back losses after winning 4 straight. We faded them last week taking Cincinnati who was off a shutout loss. The score was lopsided but the Fins were only outgained by 18 yards and the YPP numbers were dead even. We look for Miami to play well in their home finale coming off that loss. New QB Ewers now has a few weeks of practice and a game under his belt so improvement is expected. The betting splits are as we expected here with almost 60% of the wagers on the Bucs yet more than 60% of the money on Miami which speaks volumes. Even if the Dolphins don’t come out on top in this game, we look for it to be close so taking the points is the way to go.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232 Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, 5pm ET - Dallas started the season out by playing great defense but we are starting to see a regression for the Mavs on that end of the court. For the season the Mavericks allow 1.140-points per possession which ranks 9th best in the league. In their last 5 games though, the Mavs are allowing 1.176PPP, which ranks 20th. The Kings defense has been atrocious all season long ranking 27th in dEFF allowing 1.208PPP. We know this will be a high possession game with the Mavericks ranking 6th in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game. The Kings like to get up and down too ranking 9th in possessions at 100.9. Both teams are shooting over 46% and the offense for the Kings has been better recently with 3 of their last four games topping 125 points. Dallas has been scoring lately too with 116 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. With a high possession game and two defenses that aren’t playing well at the moment this should be a high scoring game.

#411/412 ASA PLAY ON Under 39.5 Points – Houston Texans vs LA Chargers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This one has the makings of a playoff type game and we like the Under with 2 high level defensive teams. Houston needs a win and they are then locked into the playoffs. The Chargers are already in but still fighting for the AFC West title with the Denver Broncos. These defenses are ranked 1st (Houston) and 3rd in the NFL in total defense and both our top 8 DVOA defenses. LA has allowed 19 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 including vs Dallas (top 5 scoring offense) and KC when Mahomes was still under center. The Houston defense leads the NFL allowing only 16 PPG and they’ve held all but 2 teams to 21 points or less this season. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring and the explosive plays have not been there for either team. The Chargers have gained 10 or more yards on less than 17% of their plays over the past six weeks, 29th in the league. Houston has gained 10 or more yards on 17.5% of their plays which is 27th in the league. LA has run the ball a lot since QB Herbert injured his hand a few weeks ago. In the last 3 games they’ve run the ball on almost 55% of their offensive snaps. Houston passes the ball more often, however they are playing into the 6th best pass defense in the NFL as the Chargers allow only 179 YPG passing. Both offenses have struggled to convert red zone trips into TD’s with both in the bottom 6 in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (TD only). Lastly, both offenses are slow paced with LA ranking 31st in seconds per play and Houston ranking 22nd. Defenses dominate here and we’re on the Under

#232 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL @ Orlando, FL - BYU was left out of the College FB Playoff 12 team field and from everything we’ve heard they are out to prove a point here. Often times teams might be flat in this spot but the Cougars have very few opt outs (main loss is RB Martin) and seem to be all in on this game. If so, they are definitely the better team in this match up. BYU has just 2 losses this year, both vs Texas Tech, who is among the top few teams in the country. Versus the other 5 bowl teams they faced this year, BYU was 5-0 SU & ATS and outgained all 5 teams. Georgia Tech was 3-3 vs the bowl teams they faced but they were outgained in all 6 games so they were very lucky to win 3 of those games. The Jackets faltered down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that stretch was by 2 points vs a bad Boston College team (2-10 record) in a game Tech needed a FG in the final 15 seconds to come away with a win. They lost by double digits to both Pitt and NC State down the stretch and while the played UGA to a 7 point game (lost 16-9) to close out the season, the Bulldogs looked uninterested in that game with the SEC Championship game on deck. Tech’s offense might be a bit discombobulated as well losing their offensive coordinator and some other offensive assistants heading into this game. They will also be without their starting center in this game. Both offenses are solid averaging 32 & 33 PPG, however BYU has a huge edge defensively. They are allowing 19 PPG while ranking in the top 30 in total defense, and 32nd in rushing YPG allowed. Georgia Tech ranks 88th in total D, 98th in YPP allowed and 92nd in rush defense. While BYU will be without their starting RB here, let’s remember that this GT defense allowed nearly 200 yards rushing to NC State’s back up RB just a few weeks ago with the Wolfpack starter out. The Jackets biggest game of the year was the season finale vs big brother Georgia and we’re not sure they’ll be completely in on this one. Proof is in the pudding as they are 1-7 SU in bowl games following a season ending loss to UGA. We’ll lay it with BYU.

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The oddsmakers are suggesting this game is going to be less than an average NBA game this season and our model is projecting a game closer to average. NBA games this season are averaging 233.2 total points per game. Based on the efficiency data for both teams our model says 230.3. The Bucks are the 4th best FG% team in the NBA, 3rd best 3PT% team at 39.7%. Memphis allows opponents to hit 46.7% (14th) of their FG attempts on the year and 36.6% from deep (21st). The Grizzlies are still without their rim protector in Zach Edey which limits their defense on the backend and rebounding. Memphis has slipped in team rebounding with Edey out, especially defensively, dropping to 10th in the league without him, 4th best with him. Memphis is not a great shooting team on the season at 45.4% overall, 35.1% from the 3-point line but they make up for it by playing at a higher pace of play (8th fastest). The Bucks continue to be bad defensively under Doc Rivers, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency this season, 15th in opponents FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. We don’t see either team expending a lot of energy defensively tonight and both teams should knock down enough shots to go OVER this number.

#221 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 4:30 PM ET – RATE BOWL @ Phoenix, AZ - It looks like New Mexico will have most of their key players, if not all, playing in this game. Minnesota has had a number of WR’s opt out of this game and they may have some key defensive players unavailable as well. Much of this info won’t be known until game time but we can be pretty sure the Gophers will have more key players not suiting up in this game when compared to the Lobos. We’re fading a trend here as PJ Fleck is 6-0 SU his last 6 bowl games, however this is one of, if not his weakest team at Minnesota. The offense is not good (128th in total offense) and they can’t run the ball (103 YPG) which has been a staple of this program. If you struggle to run the ball, you better have a high level QB and Minnesota does not have that. Freshman QB Lindsey is adequate but not great and he will be thin at WR in this game. The Gophs were 1-5 vs bowl teams this season and they were outgained by 141 YPG in those games. They were outgained in 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 145 YPG and they didn’t win a road game this season. New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in their first bowl game since 2016 and they should have a solid contingent of fans making the 400 mile trek to Phoenix. The Lobos are the better running team (155 YPG) and their defense was very solid this year allowing 349 YPG on 5.3 YPP. They also had some solid road wins this year @ UCLA and @ UNLV who played in the Mountain West Championship game. The Lobos were 5-1 ATS this year vs bowl teams and we think they have a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:40pm ET - Minnesota is blistering hot right now with a 8-2 SU run and have won 3 straight but a closer look tells a slightly different story. Seven of those 10 games came at home, they caught a short-handed Knicks team and 4 of those wins games against the Grizzlies, Kings and Pelicans, three of the worst teams in the league. The Wolves are in a tough spot here traveling to Denver to face a Nuggets team off an upset loss to the Mavericks. Denver is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and more importantly here, they are 7-0 SU off a loss this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4ppg. Going back further, the Nuggets are 33-12 SU off a loss dating back to the start of last season +5.9ppg. When it comes to efficiency rating the Nuggets have the second-best differential in the league at +9.1, only behind the Thunder. Minnesota is a respectable +4.8 in eDIFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot it well enough to exploit the Nuggets poor shooting defense and they’ll have a tough time getting second chance points against the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Denver is the best overall FG% team in the league at 51.5% and also hit 40.6% from beyond the arc, also tops in the NBA. This has gotten to be a very good rivalry and we expect a convincing win by the home team off a loss.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30pm ET - The Detroit defense, specifically their secondary, has been atrocious the past few weeks and it’s led to the Lions allowing 27 or more points in 5 straight games, 30+ in three of those. Minnesota had found a groove with their offense in two straight games putting up 31 and 34 points against the Commanders and Cowboys, then QB McCarthy got hurt last week and they managed 16 against the Giants. The bright spot for Minnesota is the fact that QB Brosmer looked much better last week than he did in his previous start. Brosmer was 7/9 for 52 yards and didn’t turn the football over. Let’s not forget, the first meeting between these two teams resulted in 51 total points and then QB McCarthy wasn’t playing well and went 14/25 for 143 yards. Detroit is going to score in this one with their offense that averages 379 total yards per game (3rd) at 6.3YPP (2nd). The Lions are scoring 30.1ppg on the season which is 2nd most in the league. The Lions with Dan Campbell/Goff typically respond well off a loss and with their season on life support we expect a solid offensive showing in this one. These two rivals have combined for 50 or more points in 7 of the last eight meetings. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -9.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2:30 pm ET - What a treat for basketball fans on Christmas Day! This is the new rivalry in the Association and it’s a good one if you haven’t been paying attention. Four weeks ago there was talk of OKC setting the all-time wins record in the NBA, setting the consecutive wins record, big favorites to win it all, everything was positive surrounding the Thunder betting markets. Then the Spurs beat them in the Cup semifinals, and everyone paused and took a breath. Then the Spurs followed up with a win on their home court Tuesday over OKC. Yes, the Spurs are a great young team right now and going to be a force to be reckoned with in the future. On Tuesday night the Spurs opened +8.5 point at home and won by 20-points. The story of the game was a ridiculously great shooting night by the Spurs 58% overall and 44% from Deep. They also attempted 24 FT’s to the Thunders 7. Those numbers will be tough to duplicate for these reasons: The Spurs shoot 48% on the season, 37% from beyond the arc AND the Thunder hold opponents to 43% shooting (#1) and 37% 3PT% (22nd). OKC has the best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.047-points per possession allowed and are 5th in oEFF. Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU at home and win by an average margin of +19.3ppg. The last 3 times these two teams have met in OKC the results have been double-digit wins by the Thunder. There is some bad blood here and we expect OKC to get ‘home cooking’ in this one and win going away.

#218 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -115 on the Money Line over California, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a home game for Hawaii and they should have a large motivational edge in this one. This is their first bowl game since 2020, they have a chance at wins for the first time since 2019 and they are hosting a Power 4 teams. Lots of motivation for this team. Cal, on the other hand, is in a bit of flux. They fired head coach Justin Wilcox at the end of the season and already hired Oregon DC Lupoi who is still coaching the Ducks in the CFP. Lupoi has started filling his coaching roster for next season, including a new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, so many of the Cal coaches will be heading elsewhere after this game. It’s also expected a number of players will be headed to the transfer portal. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears view this trip to Hawaii as a vacation. The Bows offense often gets the accolades as they averaged 31 PPG in conference play, however the defense has been impressive and improved in each of head coach Timmy Chang’s 4 seasons. When he took over they allowed 438 YPG in his first season and this year they gave up only 352 YPG. The California offense was nothing special this year ranking 99th in total offense and 111th in YPP so they should struggle here. They also are very one dimensional as they can’t run the ball at all averaging 76 YPG on the ground, dead last in the nation. These teams have played 2 common opponents this year with Hawaii having much better results. The Rainbows beat Stanford 23-20 and outgained them 4.8 YPP to 3.9 YPP. Cal lost to their rivals 31-10 and Stanford outgained the Bears 4.9 YPP to 3.7. Hawaii also beat San Diego State 38-6 and outgained them 5.6 YPP to 4.3. The Bears lost to the Aztecs 34-0 and were outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.0. Hawaii is 6-1 SU at home this season they’ve amazingly covered 13 in a row at home. Let’s take Hawaii to win this game outright.

#215 ASA PLAY ON UNLV -6.5 over Ohio U, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The distraction meter in this game is at opposite ends of the spectrum for both teams. Ohio has had lots of external noise with the allegations of their head coach Brian Smith had a relationship with a student. There were lots of “stories” out there and after an in depth investigation by the school, Smith was finally fired last Wednesday. Meanwhile, his team has been trying to get ready for a bowl game which is not ideal. UNLV, on the other hand, has been business as usual with 1st year veteran head coach Dan Mullen leading the Rebs to another bowl game after they topped California 24-13 in last year’s LA Bowl. A win here gives UNLV their second 11 win season in school history and the vibes are high with this program. The Rebels closed the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and their 3 losses this year came at the hands of Boise St (twice) and a 9-3 New Mexico team by 4 points. Big coaching edge here with Mullen coaching in his 11 bowl game facing in interim coach for Ohio. Both teams have very good rushing attacks averaging over 200 YPG on the ground. The difference here will be the passing game with UNLV having a large edge. They rank 39th in YPG passing while Ohio is outside the top 100. UNLV QB Colandrea passed for 3200 yards with 23 TD’s and 8 picks compared to Ohio QB Navarro who passed for 2200 yards with 14 TD’s and 10 picks. The Rebs played the tougher schedule (104th SOS to 125th for Ohio) and still had the better YPP margin (+0.5 to +0.3) and better PPG margin (+7 to +5). Ohio is in the midst of a coaching search with a number of players mostly likely transferring out after this game is done. UNLV is locked in on this game and we expect them to win by more than a TD so we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - Both of these teams are coming off games last night which impacts this total, plus they both have Christmas Day games looming. We mentioned the lack of rest tonight as these teams combined have gone OVER the total in 26 of 39 games dating back to the start of last season when playing the second night of a B2B. We also don’t expect either team to expend a ton of energy on the defensive end of the court with big games on Thursday. That should lead to a higher scoring game much like their last meeting in early December when they combined for 252 total points. Dallas is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and get their scoring from volume. The Nuggets play slow but are the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.255-points per possession so they score with efficiency. Dallas isn’t a great shooting team on the season but they’ve been much better in their last 5 games (w/Anthony Davis in the lineup) hitting 48.1% from the field. Denver has an average defense and allows opponents to hit 46.6% from the field on the season. In their last 5 games their FG% defense has been worse yet. We know Denver is going to make shots no matter who they play as they are the #1 FG% team in the league, 3rd best from beyond the arc. Bet OVER in this one.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Seton Hall -2.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seton Hall has quietly racked up an 11-1 record with their only loss coming by 2 points vs USC (12-1 record) on a neutral court. It was a game that the Hall led by 13 in the 2nd half and coughed it up with USC making 19 more FT’s yet still winning by just 2 points. This Seton Hall team is legit. They are fantastic defensively ranking 13th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in FG’s allowed per game at 19.8, and they create turnovers at almost a 24% rate which is 6th best in the country. On top of that, they are #1 in the country in block percentage and steal percentage. They give up just 62 PPG and only 2 teams have reached 70 points vs this defense (USC & NC State). Nova is very solid as well with a 9-2 record, however they have played only 2 true road games this season winning @ LaSalle who is 4-9 and also in Philadelphia (only 15 miles from the Nova campus) and getting crushed @ Michigan. The Cats were in Milwaukee on Friday night holding on for dear life beating Wisconsin in OT and now they are on the road again. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (40% of their points which is 22nd in the country) which we don’t love on the road, especially vs a high level defense. On the other end of the court, Nova is one of the worst 3 point defenses in the nation allowing opponents to hit 38.5% (342nd in the nation). We like the line value here with Seton Hall as Villanova was just a 4.5 point to 5 point dog on a neutral court vs Wisconsin on Friday and they are now only a 2 point dog (opening number) in a true road game vs Seton Hall who is better than Wisconsin. If it’s tight late, we trust Seton Hall’s defense and they make 75% of their FT’s while Nova makes 69%. Let’s lay this small number.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - The Magic are the better team in this matchup and are worth a bet as a road dog in this scenario. The season long statistics don’t lie, and the Magic have an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +3.1 compared to the Warriors at +1.2. Orlando has also faced the tougher overall schedule and still rates better. The Magic were just +4.5 at Denver a few nights ago and the Nuggets are a top 4 team in the NBA. Golden State is 1-3 SU in their last four games and the lone win coming at home against the Suns by 3-points as a -4.5 point favorite. The Magic are 6-7 SU on the road but have a positive road differential of +2.6ppg. Golden State has a +6.7ppg average differential at home and stands 8-4 SU. These same two teams met in Orlando in mid-November, and the Magic came out on top 121-113 playing without Banchero, who is healthy and back in the lineup. With the Warriors coming off a win and having a big game on deck Christmas day against the Mavs we will play against them here.

ASA NFL play on: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 pm ET - There is only one way to bet this game and that’s the 49ers or nothing at all. The computer analytics tell a different story on this game than the actual numbers. The Colts season long statistics would have you on them in this game as an underdog, but the QB situation mitigates that advantage. Phillip Rivers is a great story for us old guys, but the reality is that he’s 44, can’t move and has no arm strength. Last week the Colts managed just 220 yards total at 3.8YPP. Rivers had 120 yards passing at 4.4 yards per attempt. The 49ers have game film on Rivers now and know just how limited he is and D-coordinator, Saleh will have a great game plan for him tonight. The Colts defense played above expectations last week in Seattle but still allowed 6 scoring drives in the game but the Seahawks converted FG’s instead of TD’s. San Francisco is getting healthy and it’s starting to show offensively. They put up 26 points two weeks ago against a good Browns defense in Cleveland and 37 last week against the Titans. San Francisco has won 4 straight games, all by double-digits and tonight we expect a win by 7 or more points by the visitor.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Oral Roberts +3.5 over UT Arlington, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough spot for UT Arlington playing their 4th straight road game. Over their last 3 games they played games in Arkansas, back to Texas (road game), and then California and now they are in Oklahoma. They are 3-3 on the road this season but their wins have been by 1 point, by 8 in OT, and by 8. ORU has a 5-9 record but played a tough schedule (52nd SOS). 5 of their 9 losses have come vs top 75 teams and their other 4 losses have all come away from home. They have 2 wins vs team ranked very similar to UT Arlington (top 170) beating Kennesaw State on a neutral court and Montana State at home. They do have 2 home losses but those came at the hands of Belmont (ranked 63rd) and Tulsa (ranked 71st) and those 2 teams have a combined record of 23-2. Their game vs Tulsa (11-1 record) went down to the wire with ORU losing by 1 point and Tulsa never led by more than 3 points. Even with those 2 losses the Golden Eagles are averaging 80 PPG at home while allowing just 67 points. UTA is averaging only 65 PPG at home and they are a really poor 3 point shooting team hitting just 28% from deep (352nd) and that number drops to 24% away from home. Their defensive numbers are solid, however they dip drastically on the road as well where they allow almost 23 points more per 100 possessions compared to their home games. ORU is hungry for a win off back to back road losses vs Missouri St and TCU and we expect a great effort tonight. Let’s take the points.

#210 ASA PLAY ON Utah State even over Washington State, Monday at 2 PM ET – IDAHO POTATO BOWL - It’s really tough for us to fade Washington State here as they were VERY good to us this season including winning as our College Game of the Year. However, we feel this is spot to go against the Cougars. The Wazzu program is in the midst of an overhaul for the 2nd year in a row as head coach Jimmy Rogers left for the Iowa State gig. He’s also taking some coaches with him including defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit but Bobbit will stick around to coach this team in the bowl game before heading straight to ISU after. Not an ideal situation. Wazzu lost their head coach at the end of last year to Wake Forest in a very similar situation and they proceeded to get blasted 52-24 in their bowl game vs Syracuse. Many of the Cougar players have already hit the portal and while they will be allowed to play here if they wish, we can’t imagine this team is fully focused on this game. Utah State, on the other hand, has a number of reasons to be all in on this game. It’s their first bowl game under veteran head coach Bronco Mendenhall after missing the post-season in his first season with the Aggies last year. They closed out this season on a very solid run covering their final 4 games and taking both UNLV and Boise State, the 2 MWC Championship game participants, to the wire before losing by 3 and 1 point respectively. USU also had the added motivation of losing @ Washington State last season in embarrassing fashion 49-28. They are also playing this game on the blue carpet in Boise, a spot Utah State is very familiar with being in the same conference. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules and their YPG and YPP margins are nearly the same. USU has the coaching advantage with Mendenhall having coached in 14 bowl games vs interim Bobbit who has never been a head coach at any level. More stability and motivation for the Aggies as well in this game and we just need a SU win. We’ll take Utah State.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - These same two teams met in San Antonio last week and produced 213 total points with the Spurs winning 119-94. The first matter we need to address is the Wizards defense, which is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.238-points per possession on the season. They have been better lately though, allowing 1.199PPP in their last 5 games. On the subject of defense, the young Spurs are figuring it out and are one of the best units in the NBA and only getting better. San Antonio put the clamps on the Thunder in the Cup semi-finals and played at a very high level. On the season the Spurs are 5th in dEFF allowing 1.130PPP. In their last 5 games that number dips to 1.088PPP allowed per game. San Antonio is average in terms of pace of play this season, the Wizards are 9th fastest but they are continually slowing as the season has progressed. In their last 5 games the Wiz average 98.2 possessions per game which is 23rd slowest in the league. The Spurs are highly efficient on the offensive end; the Wizards are not. We see this game playing out very similarly to last Thursday’s game and even if the Spurs play way above expectations offensively and score 130 there is still a good chance the Wizards don’t reach 100. San Antonio has two HUGE games on deck against the Thunder and will be happy to win and go home. Bet UNDER.

#126 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -7 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a 7 point loss @ LA Rams last weekend and this team has been lights out in this situation. They are a perfect 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS coming off a SU loss. They blew a 10 point lead in that game and in head coach Dan Campbell’s career, his teams are 11-3 ATS the week following a loss if his team blows a 7+ point lead. Right now the Lions sit outside the playoffs and this is their home finale making this a near must win with 2 division road games on deck (@ Minnesota & @ Chicago). They catch Pittsburgh in a rough spot traveling on a short week off a Monday night win over Miami. We were on the Steelers in that game and felt Miami would have trouble in the freezing cold weather (10 degree windchill) and we were dead on as the Fins looked like they quit in the 2nd half. The Steelers have not been great in this spot going 0-4 SU and ATS on short rest dating back to the start of last season. This game is MUCH bigger for Detroit as Pittsburgh holds a 1 game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and while a win here would be great, this division will most likely come down to the final weekend when the Steelers host the Ravens. They are 8-6 on the season but Pitt has a negative YPG and YPP differential. They rank 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense. The Steelers will most likely be without TJ Watt again this week which is great news for Detroit’s passing game that ranks 3rd in the NFL. The Lions have 5 home wins this year, all by at least 2 TD’s with an average margin of +18 PPG in those wins. Detroit is averaging 33 PPG at home this season and we don’t see Pittsburgh’s offense being able to keep pace. We’ll lay it.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention so this is a play for pride situation. We think the Cardinals have a much better chance of playing well in this game at home. Atlanta is coming off a division win @ Tampa Bay kicking a FG as time expired for the 1 point win. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week, in a meaningless game, with a prime time Monday night home game on deck with the Rams. We see the Falcons having trouble getting “up” and playing well in this game. Arizona will be hungry for a win at home after losing 6 in a row. They’ve played a brutally tough schedule this year (2nd most difficult SOS to date) and their 6 game losing streak came at the hands of Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, and Houston. They’ve been very competitive with 7 of their 11 losses coming by 1 score. For comparison’s sake, their game @ Tampa a few weeks ago (a 3 point loss) the Cards were +4. Last week Atlanta was +6.5 @ Tampa and now they are laying a FG @ Arizona on the road. In a few of their recent home games Arizona was +3.5 vs San Francisco and +2.5 vs Jacksonville. As you can see, we’re getting some solid line value with the Cardinals at +3 in this game. These 2 teams have faced off 10 times since 2009 and the home team has won all of those games. Atlanta has been a road favorite 3 times this season and lost all 3 of those games outright including @ NY Jets. Going back further the Falcons are just 5-15-1 ATS their last 21 road games as a favorite. Let’s grab the points with Arizona.

#742 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State -3 over Sam Houston, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Really rough spot here for Sam Houston State as they are playing their 6th consecutive game away from home. NMSU hasn’t played a home game since November 21st and they are hungry for a win off 3 straight road losses. The Aggies have also had 8 days off while Sam Houston played at Oregon State on Wednesday and pulled the upset win to move to 8-0 ATS which actually sets this game up nicely with some line value. The Bearkats were +4 at Oregon State who ranks nearly 30 spots lower than New Mexico State (per KenPom) and now they are only +2.5 here vs a rested and desperate team. The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 at home this season including an 8 point win over a 9-2 New Mexico team that ranks 76th nationally. NMSU has one of the top defensive teams in the nation allowing opponent’s to shoot just 39% (37th) and they allow only 20 made FG’s per game (6th). They match up well here with Sam Houston as the Bearkats thrive on offensive rebounds to give them extra opportunities and the Aggies are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country (42nd). On the other end of the court NMSU is 54th in offensive rebounding and should get extra possessions vs a SHSU team that is 282nd in defensive rebounding. We like New Mexico State to get this home win and cover.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - TB continues to be priced as if they are a solid team which isn’t the case right now. They’ve lost 6 in a row vs the spread losing 5 of those 6 outright. Their only win during that stretch was a 3 point win at home vs Arizona in a game the Cards outgained the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Tampa has now been outgained in 9 of their last 10 games. They’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite just since November 8th. They are facing a Carolina team that lost @ New Orleans last week and the Panthers are 6-0 ATS this year coming off a loss. As a dog, the Panthers have beaten the Rams, Packers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Falcons all outright. Carolina is the better running team (9th in the NFL) with the better defense. Comparing the stats of these 2 NFC South rivals, the Panthers have YPG, YPP, YP rush, and YP pass attempt differentials. This game and their 2nd meeting in the season finale will decide who wins the NFC South (both teams currently 7-7). Hard to imagine saying this, but we trust Carolina right now more than Tampa Bay and we’re getting points at home. We’ll take it.

English Premier League #200193/200194 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (+105) – Manchester United at Aston Villa, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Quick one here as this match goes in a couple hours but we like the market activity we are seeing here and will not hesitate to get involved. 7 of the last 8 Aston Villa matches have totaled 3 or more goals! 7 of the last 9 Manchester United matches have totaled at least 3 goals! 7 of the last 9 meetings between these clubs saw decent scoring. In fact, those 7 matches averaged 4 goals and we like our chances here of another one reaching at least the 3 goal mark. That would be a push of course but 4 or more is definitely the most probable outcome here per our computer math model. Over gets the call in this one!

#700 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -14 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Phoenix but Arizona should obviously have the crowd advantage. We have the Wildcats power rated as the 2nd best team in the country behind only Michigan. For comparison’s sake, San Diego State already played Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas and lost by 40 points. Zona already had FIVE top 30 wins on the season including blowout out Alabama by 21 points (in Birmingham, AL) and crushing Auburn by 29 points. The Cats also have wins @ UConn (Huskies only loss this season), and on neutral sites over UCLA and Florida. They are 10-0 on the season with an average PPG margin of +23 which is impressive considering their tough schedule thus far (44th SOS). San Diego State will actually only be the 5th highest rated team Arizona has faced this year. The Aztecs are 6-3 on the year despite playing an SOS nearly 100 spots lower than Arizona. They’ve faced just 2 top 50 teams this year losing to Michigan by 40 and Baylor by 10 (both neutral sites). The Wildcats sit in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom while SDSU is outside the top 50 in both. Arizona is the better shooting team (8th nationally in FG% to 88th for SDSU), the better defensive team (43rd in opponent FG% compared to 152nd for SDSU) and they rank 3rd in rebound rate while the Aztecs are 127th. San Diego State has had trouble stepping up in class with an 0-2 ATS record as a dog this year and 4-9 ATS dating back to the start of last season. We like Arizona to roll up a big win on Saturday night.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 10:10pm ET - This is a quick rematch game from Thursday night as these same two teams met in Portland on Thursday. The Blazers won that game 134-133 in OT. At the end of regulation these two teams had combined for 230 total points which obviously stays under the total. Both teams shot unusually well in that game with the Kings hitting 51% from the field, the Blazers shot 48%. On the season the Blazers shoot 44.6% (29th), the Kings are at 46.6% from the floor as a team which ranks 18th in the NBA. Granted, both teams are bad defensively, but neither are great offensively with the Blazers 16th in offensive efficiency, the Kings are 29th. Both teams are missing key offensive weapons, especially the Kings who are without Sabonis and LaVine for tonight’s contest. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but prior to that had topped 120 points just twice in their last 8 games. Sacramento’s offense has really struggled in their last 9 games prior to Thursday with 8 of nine below 120 and in 6 of those they didn’t break 110. In this quick turnaround rematch we don’t see these two teams getting to 240. Bet UNDER.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +4.5 over Georgetown, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Xavier Wednesday at home vs Creighton and they (and we) got embarrassed. XU was favored by 3.5 in that game and lost 98-57! The Blue Jays shot 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. The Musketeers shot 36% from the field and 25% from deep. XU also turned the ball on almost 20% of their possessions and they entered the game #1 in offensive turnover rated coughing it up only 11% of the time. It was the Musketeers worst home loss EVER! It was just one of those games where everything went wrong for one team and everything went right for the other team. That gives us some value here with what should be a very motivated Xavier team. We’re also getting Georgetown coming off a road win as a dog (@ Marquette) which really sets this game up nicely for the dog. Even with that win, the Hoyas are still just 3-8 ATS on the season and when laying points this team is 0-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are 3-1 ATS as a dog winning 2 of those games outright. Xavier should get back to not turning the ball over here vs a G’Town team that doesn’t create turnovers ranking outside the top 200 in defensive turnover rate. We should also get a solid advantage from beyond the arc with XU hitting 36% of their triples (88th) while the Hoyas only make 28% (338th). The last 4 meetings between these 2 Big East rivals have all been decided by 6 points or less. Let’s take the points with Xavier.