ASA play on Sacramento Kings -130 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Bucks are fighting for a top 4 seed in the East and home court, the Kings are trying to hold on to the 9th seed in the Western Conference. The Bucks are coming off a blowout win over the Lakers but Los Angeles was without most of their key starters. Milwaukee is 3-5 SU their last eight games overall and have been a poor road team this season at 15-18 SU with a negative differential of minus -1.2ppg. Sacramento is coming off a home loss to the Bulls but had two solid wins prior against the Cavs and Grizzlies. The Kings are slightly above .500 at home with a 18-16 record, plus +2.1ppg. In the lone meeting earlier this season, the Bucks beat the Kings 130-115 as a -2-point home favorite. The Kings have two games on deck against the Celtics and Thunder which makes this game that much more important as a 4-game losing streak would be devastating to their playoff hopes. The line on this game is begging you to take the Bucks, so we’ll play contrarian and back the Kings.

ASA play on OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - The Bucks, sitting 3rd in the NBA for 3-point shooting, are primed to light up the Kings, who rank dead last (30th) at defending the three. Sacramento’s been an offensive beast lately, posting a 117.6 offensive rating over their last ten games (9th in the league), while Milwaukee’s at 115.3 (14th). Their first meeting this season was a 245-point OVER with 104 field goal attempts, way past the league’s 178.4-per-game average. The Kings’ defense isn’t helping either, giving up 119 or more in six straight games. With Milwaukee’s pace (100.2) and Sacramento’s (99.3) keeping things moving, this could turn into another shootout. Sacramento is shooting the ball extremely well right now with the 7th best EFG% over their last fifteen games. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past as they currently rank 10th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.127-points per possession. This Bucks vs. Kings game goes OVER 222.5 total points comfortably.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.

ASA NHL Hurricanes vs. Kings – UNDER 5.5 Goals - Today’s matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Los Angeles Kings presents a strong case for betting the UNDER 5.5 goals, driven by elite defensive play and recent low-scoring trends from both teams. The Hurricanes rank 5th in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 2.60, while the Kings sit just ahead at 3rd with 2.54. Carolina leads the league in preventing shots on goal, allowing the fewest per game, while the Kings are right behind in 2nd place. Fewer shots mean fewer scoring chances, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. Both squads excel at neutralizing power plays, with their penalty kill percentages ranking in the top 10 league-wide. The Kings have been a moneymaker for the UNDER bettor, with their games staying below 5.5 goals in 5 straight contests and 8 of their last 10. The Hurricanes aren’t far behind, with games involving them dipping below 5.5 goals in 7 of their last 10. With two of the NHL’s best defenses squaring off, expect a grind-it-out battle where scoring chances are at a premium.

#787/798 ASA PLAY ON Over 160 Points – Xavier vs Illinois, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with high level offenses should equal a high scoring game here. The Illini average 84 PPG on the season and they are a top 15 offense in terms of efficiency. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team (18th nationally) so extra opportunities on the offensive end should be available. They are not a good 3 point shooting team, however that speaks to how good their offense is despite that (PPG & efficiency). If they shoot above average from deep, this offense can up piles of points (they put up big time points without doing that). They should do plenty of damage inside ranking 18th in 2 point FG% facing an undersized XU defense that ranks 159th defending inside the arc. Xavier is the 9th best 3 point shooting team in the country and facing an Illinois defense whose weakness is guarding the arc (143rd nationally). Both teams are very good at taking care of the ball so wasted possessions will be few. We should get a bunch of extra points from the FT line as both shoot it very well (79% for XU and 76% for Illinois). The Illini are 18th in adjusted tempo and Xavier is 76th so we’ll have plenty of possessions in this game. A fast paced team with 2 teams that rank in the top 65 nationally in PPP vs OK but not great defenses should lead to big points. We like both to get to 80 in this game giving us an Over.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on OVER 232 Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pmET - The OVER 232 looks promising in this matchup. Dallas’ defense has been porous over their last 10 games, allowing a league-worst points in the paint, ranking 23rd in fastbreak points allowed, 24th in second-chance baskets, and 29th in Defensive Rating, while surrendering over 129 points per game. This game should see a ton of possessions, with Detroit ranking 2nd in pace and Dallas 7th over the last 10 games. Offensively, the Pistons are 8th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%) and have scored 120+ points in three of their last five, while the Mavericks sit at a decent 17th in EFG%. With both teams pushing the tempo and Dallas struggling to stop anyone, expect this one to sail past 232.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -5.5 at Miami Heat, 8pm ET - The Houston Rockets are a solid bet against the struggling Miami Heat tonight in South Beach. Houston is riding an eight-game winning streak, seven by 7+ points, while Miami has dropped nine straight, with six of those losses coming by five or more points. The Rockets’ season-long Net Rating of +4.7 far outpaces the Heat’s -1.9, and the gap widens when looking at the last 10 games—Houston ranks 5th with a +9.0 Net Rating, while Miami sits at 27th with a -9.1. Houston’s elite defense, ranking 4th in field goal percentage allowed and 8th in Defensive Efficiency, should stifle a slumping Heat offense that ranks 21st in FG% overall, 17th in 3PT% and has the worst Efficiency rating in the league over their last 5-games.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

ASA play on OVER 226.5 Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers – 10:40 pm ET - These two teams met on March 13th in Milwaukee and produced 232 total points. That game was played at an average pace with average shooting by both teams and it climbed OVER the number of 226.5. We expect a very similar result tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible showing against the Warriors a couple of nights ago in which they managed just 17-points in two of the four quarters. The Bucks are the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 47.9% and rank 2nd in 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee ranks 14th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.146-points per possession. The Lakers are 12th in OEFF on the season and have been even more efficient in their last 5-games at 1.176PPP. LA has the 9th best FG% at 47.9% and rank 16th in 3PT% at 35.9%. The Lakers are playing at a faster rate in their last 5 games without LeBron and tempo will play an important role in this OVER. Milwaukee is 11th in pace of play on the season and will look to get out and run against a Lakers defense that allows the 25th most fast break points in the league. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams has flown OVER the total.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#4 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Rangers -125 or -130 over Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a great spot for a home favorite that is priced very fairly and set up perfectly to dominate. The Rangers are rested and off B2B home ice losses.  The Maple Leafs are in a B2B spot and they won last night against the Avalanche even though they were heavily outshot and gave up nearly 40 shots in the game!  Toronto used their top goalie last night and that means it will be Anthony Stolarz most likely in the crease tonight for the Leafs.   Stolarz is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 11 goals in the 3 games.  The Rangers are going with Igor Shesterkin here and he is in fantastic form and has allowed only 9 goals in his last 5 starts - an average of just 1.8 per game while Stolarz allowing 3.7 goals per game in recent starts.  The Rangers had a sub-par effort versus the Flames Monday as they were heavily outshot and now off B2B losses (including one to a tough Oilers team) which followed B2B wins, New York is primed for a big response on home ice here.  The Maple Leafs defeated the Rangers earlier this month here in New York but the Rangers outshot them 35 to 16 in that game.  Toronto enters this one off B2B wins but this followed a 1-5 stretch for the Leafs and now in a tough B2B and facing a rested and revenge-minded Rangers team, this is a very tough spot for the Maple Leafs.  The Rangers know the importance of this in the playoff picture and Shesterkin leads the way with a dominating effort in between the pipes in this one. Lay it with the Rangers money line for a Top Game

#745/746 ASA PLAY ON Under 134 Points - McNeese State vs Clemson, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET (Providence, RI) - These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the tourney facing off so we do not expect many offensive possessions.  Clemson ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and McNeese ranks 283rd.  What we really like about this match up in regards to the Under, is both defenses make opposing offenses really work to get a decent shot.  Clemson’s opponents average a shot every 19.1 seconds which is the 2nd best mark in the country.  McNeese opponents average a shot every 18.6 seconds which is 19th in the country.  The Tigers had the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the ACC behind only Duke and 16th best in the nation.  The Cowboys were by far the best defensive team (efficiency) in the Southland and they rank 66th nationally.  Against higher level offensive teams early in the season, McNeese held Alabama (#1 scoring offense in the country) to 72 points, the Tide’s 2nd lowest point total of the year and 19 points below their season average.  They also held Mississippi State to 66 points (they average 80 PPG) and they held Liberty, NCAA tourney team and one of the best shooting teams in the country, to 62 points which was also their season low.  Both create defensive turnovers at a high rate (both #1 in their conferences) which leads to empty possessions for their opponent.  Clemson held 11 of their final 13 opponents to less than 70 points with only Duke (#3 nationally in offensive efficiency) and Louisville (#29 in offensive efficiency) topping that number.  McNeese only allowed 7 of their 31 opponents this season to top 70 points.  This has the makings of a low possession (low 60’s?), defensive battle and we’ll grab the Under.

#747/748 ASA PLAY ON Over 152 Points – High Point vs Purdue, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - We expect both offense to have a lot of success in this one. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in FG% and Purdue ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency while High Point steps in at 25th in that metric. While the Panthers are really good offensively (18th nationally averaging 82 PPG) they are really poor defensively. Their defensive efficiency ranks 227th which is the 6th worst mark in the 68 team NCAA field. Their pick and roll defense is really poor which is bad news facing a Purdue team with PG Smith and F Kaufman-Renn are as good as any duo in the country at P&R offense. The top P&R offense in the Big South, UNC Asheville, lit the High Point defense up for 103 and 86 points in their 2 meetings and they are nowhere near the same level as this Purdue offense. On the other end, High Point should be able to put up points vs this Purdue defense that was way down from previous editions ranking 12th in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and dead last in 2 points FG% allowed. The Panthers are a very good 3 point shooting team (36.6% and all of their top 7 players hit at least 33% from deep) but they like to work inside the arc as well where they rank 15th in the country in 2 point FG% which matches up well against the Boiler defense. Both offenses are very solid at protecting the ball and above average offensive rebounding teams so both should have decent shot volume numbers in this game (both top 70 in FG’s made per game). High Point is going to have to put the ball in the hoop to keep up here because they won’t be able to stop Purdue. We think the Panthers can do that and this one sails Over the Total.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, 7:40pm ET - This game has all the makings of an ‘average’ NBA game which is great for our OVER bet. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season and for the last several years is 227.4 total points per game. Obviously, if these two play ‘average’ it goes OVER easily. In fact, our math model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season for these two teams. On October 28th they combined for 204 total points. In mid-November and mid-December, they played two OT games, but in regulation they totaled 228 and 222. Miami has had some problems scoring of late with four straight games of 104 or less points but they’ve also come against good defensive teams. Detroit is top 8 in Defensive Efficiency ratings this season, but they should have some success with their 3PT shooting against a Pistons D that ranks 22nd in 3PT% allowed. Detroit plays with pace and is the 7th fastest tempo team in the league at 100 possessions per game. We are not asking these two teams to score 235 or anything ridiculous, just be average and we cash an easy win.

ASA NHL play on Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Over 5.5 Goals - Take the Over 5.5 Goals in tonight’s clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. These two high-octane offenses have a proven track record of lighting up the scoreboard against each other. In their most recent meeting, they combined for a whopping 11 goals, and the trend doesn’t stop there. Over the last three straight head-to-head matchups, they’ve hit 7 or more goals each time, and in 6 of their last 7 meetings, the nets have been buzzing. With Colorado’s explosive attack (averaging around 3.4 goals per game) facing Toronto’s leaky defense, and the Leafs’ potent offense (around 3.3 goals per game) testing Colorado’s blueline, expect another goal-fest. The Over is the play here.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

ASA play on UNDER 228 Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - We were fortunate to bet this game UNDER 234 when it opened but now find this number at 229 with the announcement Steph Curry will not play tonight. We still feel there is value in this UNDER as long as it stays above 227. If we examine recent trends for both teams we find that both teams have been excellent defensively in their last 15 games. The Warriors Defensive Net rating of 108.2 ranks 3rd best, the Bucks 109.7 ranks 5th. When we look at each teams season numbers offensively we find both rank near league average in Offensive Net ratings with the Bucks 14th the Warriors 16th. Golden State is off a game last night against the Nuggets and when playing without rest this season they have stayed UNDER in 7 of eleven games by an average of -11.4ppg. The Bucks are 9-13 UNDER this season against the Western Conference. The Bucks have recently faced three similar defenses to the Warriors and struggled offensively scoring 105 against the Thunder, 100 vs. Cleveland and 109 against the Magic. Golden State’s offense has sputtered in two straight games, managing 97 points against the Knicks and 105 last night versus Denver.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadians, 7:07pm ET - For the Ottawa Senators, through 66 games, they’ve scored 194 goals and allowed 185 goals or 2.94 GF/GP and 2.80 GA/GP. For the Montreal Canadiens, through 66 games, they’ve scored 195 goals and allowed 214 goals: 2.95 GF/GP and 3.24 GA/GP. In a head-to-head scenario, we typically model it as each team’s offense versus the other’s defense and factor in the efficiency rates for both teams. In this matchup our model is projecting 5.88 total goals being scored. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Canadians winning both 4-1 and 5-2. In the last eight meetings one of the two teams has scored 4+ goals and all eight have finished with 5 or more total goals being scored. Ottawa has played in three straight higher scoring games with 7, 8 and 6 total goals being scored. Montreal’s last three games have finished with 4, 9 and 6 total goals.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA NHL top play on Tampa Bay Lighting -1.5 goals -115 vs Philadelphia – 7:07 pm ET - Tampa Bay had Andrei Vasilveskiy (2.28 GAA this season) in the starters crease at the morning skate and he gives the Lightning a big edge in goal over the Flyers. Ivan Fedotov is the starter for Philly here and he is 5-11-3 this season and Philadelphia has had some issues defensively which is part of the reason the slumping Flyers have lost 6 of 7 games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 4 of their last six and put up 6 goals three times! Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.53, Philadelphia is 24th at 2.75. Philadelphia is allowing 3.37 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.68. The key here is not just that the Lightning hold all the edges, including in current form as well as power play and penalty kill, Tampa Bay also has double revenge here! The only win that the Flyers have recently was last week's win over, you guessed it, the Lightning! Also, earlier this season the Bolts lost to Philly in the shootout here in Tampa. So, with revenge on their side and also having a stacked roster after being buyers at the trade deadline while the Flyers were sellers, Tampa is a -300 favorite on the money line logically! Where we get the value is the puck line! By laying 1.5 goals we only have to lay a -115 price on TB! 9 of the last 10 Lightning wins have been by 2 or more goals. The Flyers have 6 losses since early March and all were by at least 2 goals! This one will be too! Lay it with the Lightning goal line here at -1.5 goals for a Top Play Monday

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

#643/644 ASA PLAY ON Under 144 Points - Florida vs Tennessee, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This total opened 140 and has crept up to 143.5 and 144.  Too high in our opinion.  We understand why with the Gators coming of 2 very high scoring games in this SEC tourney vs Missouri (176 total points) and Alabama (186 total points).  Florida went off on offense averaging 1.30 and 1.33 PPP in those 2 wins.  Those were ultra fast paced games with 73 and 78 possessions vs defensive teams that didn’t match  up very well with the Gators.  Now we have a Tennessee team that will slow this game down and they match up very well defensively vs Florida who like to get out in transition.  In the first meeting the Vols did allow 18 points on the break which was the most they’ve given up this season.  They made adjustments in the second meeting and Florida had only 8 fast break points.  You can bet UT will make sure the Gators can’t get out and run today.  On the other side, the Vols aren’t a great shooting team ranking 8th in the SEC in 3 point FG% and 11th in 2 point FG% and they are running into a high level Florida defense that is 7th nationally in defensive efficiency (Tenn is 3rd nationally in that metric).  When it comes to eFG% defense, Tennessee ranks #1 in the country and Florida #6.  Both of these defenses are elite.  In their 2 meetings this year they totaled 116 points (73-43 Florida win) and 110 points (64-44 Tennessee win).  As you can see, only 1 team topped 70 in those 2 meetings and twice they were held under 50 points.  These 2 defenses are fantastic defending the arc (1st and 7th nationally) and it showed in those 2 meetings where they combined to go 20 of 98 from 3.  These teams know each other very well and obviously know how to defend the opposing offense.  They’ve had 4 straight Unders in this series with 3 of those games failing to top 123 total points.  We don’t think either team gets to 70 points here so grabbing the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 235.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams really don’t like each other and this matchup has become one of the better current rivalries in the NBA. They just met in Indiana earlier in the week and produced 229 total points when Haliburton converted a 4-point play late for the win. The takeaway from that game was the total field goal attempts which was 171, lower than a regular NBA game of 178.4. Both teams shot above expectations at 51% which is better than their season average of 48.9% and 48.1%. This game has a playoff feel to it and we expect both defenses to step up and make every shot difficult. If you exclude OT these two have stayed UNDER this number in 7 of the last nine meetings. Indiana is coming off a game last night and have favored the UNDER when playing without rest at 4-6 this season. Milwaukee also has a slight tendency to play UNDER with a rest advantage with a 16-18-1 record. Indiana has stayed UNDER in 4 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In each teams last ten games the defenses have been above average with the Pacers ranking 13th in Net Rating, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams are also closer to average in Offensive Net rating at 116.0 and 116.4. Our math model tells us this game will be closer to the league average of 227.4 total points per game than the oddsmakers number of 235.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:07 pm ET - Boston has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last five games and they’ve allowed 6 goals in 2 of their last five. Tampa Bay has had some issues defensively allowing 4 or more goals in four straight games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 3 of their last five and put up 6 goals twice. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.49, Boston is 25th a 2.72. Boston is allowing 3.15 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.69. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league is shots against so both should get plenty of opportunities to put shots on goal. In the last seven head-to-head meetings one of the two teams has scored 3 goals. In the last three meetings one team has put up 4 or more goals. We are betting 6 or more goals get scored in this one.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#609/610 ASA PLAY ON Under 145.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on MSU vs Oregon Under yesterday and we’re coming right back with another Under on Saturday. MSU ranks 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency and since mid February they rank 1st in the country in that metric. Yesterday they completely shut down Oregon from beyond the arc (21% shooting) and allowed just 64 points. The Spartans have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 66 points or less including limiting Wisconsin to just 62 points on March 2nd. The Badgers shot just 34% and made only 5 triples in that 71-62 loss. On Friday they lit up UCLA shooting 52% and hit 19 three pointers and we anticipate they come nowhere near that on Saturday vs Sparty. While Wisconsin’s offense has been talked about all season, their defense has quietly become really good. Their defense has moved into the top 30 nationally in efficiency and since February 1st they rank 23rd in that metric. They held the Spartans to less than 1.00 PPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. MSU did hit 47% of their 3’s yesterday (and the game still only reached 138) and that is not the norm for this team who averages 30% from beyond the arc (324th nationally). The Spartan defense is set up perfectly to defend Wisconsin’s 3 point attack as they allow just 27% on the season (2nd nationally) and held the Badgers to 5 of 32 from deep on March 2nd. This has been a defensive series with only 1 of the last 6 meetings topping 134 points and the average total points scored in those 6 meetings was 134. Tired legs could be a factor in shooting success on Saturday with Wisconsin playing their 3rd game in 3 days and MSU playing their 2nd in back to back days. These teams know each other very well and we’ll call for a lower scoring game than expected.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#825/826 ASA PLAY ON Under 148 Points - Wichita State vs Memphis, Friday at 1 PM ET - In their 2 meetings this season, these AAC foes totaled 114 and 142 (in regulation) and both games were under 70 possessions in regulation (one went to double OT).  The teams dominated on the defensive end in those meetings with PPP numbers (efficiency) of 1.09, 1.03, 0.90, and 0.77.  Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot (12th and 13th in the AAC in offensive turnover rate) and that leads to empty possessions.  In fact, in their 2 meetings this season there were a whopping 60 combined turnovers.  Memphis likes to play fast but it was obvious with the tempo results of the 2 games that Wichita wants to make this a slower paced game.  Their offense isn’t good enough (283rd in offensive efficiency and 349th in 3 point FG%) to win a high scoring affair so we expect another game with the possessions in the 60’s.  Both defenses are very solid ranking #1 (Memphis) and #4 in efficiency in conference play.  Neither team takes many 3 pointers with the Shockers ranking 358th in 3 point attempts and the Tigers 299th.  They only combined to make 23 triples in their 2 games this season and shot just 39% from the field.  Neither team topped 71 points in either game in regulation and we don’t think they will here.  Under.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month.  In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP.  In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd.  The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency).  Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less.  These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower.  In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half.  Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half.  Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s.  We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format.  Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season.  Buckets will be tough to come by in this game.  Let’s go Under.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

ASA play on Edmonton Oilers -140 at New Jersey Devils, 7:37 pm ET - We are not buying the Devils two recent wins, and they came against Columbus and Philadelphia who both sit below them in the standings. New Jersey now steps up to face a much better Edmonton team that is coming off a loss against Buffalo as a -180 road favorite. The Oilers have outshot their last four opponents by a combined 128/102 and two of those wins came against Montreal and Dallas. The Oilers are 9th in Goals p/game at 3.23 on the season, New Jersey is averaging 2.98. The Devils have a slight advantage defensively allowing 2.53 Goals p/game, the Oilers give up 2.94. Edmonton has the much better shots/shots allowed differential at +300 for the season compared to the Devils at +165. With two relatively even goaltenders, we like the Oilers offense in this one and the fact Edmonton is playing with revenge from a loss earlier this season to the Devils.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

ASA play on Miami Heat -135 vs. LA Clippers, 8pm ET - The Clippers are off a game last night in New Orleans and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six so fatigue will be a factor. When playing without rest the Clippers are 5-8 ATS with a negative average differential of minus -4.1ppg. Miami is rested after a home loss on Monday to the Hornets. The Heat have lost 4-straight and are in danger of missing the playoffs as they sit 9th in the East. Miami will have their starting five intact as Andrew Wiggins returned from an injury against Charlotte and contributed 19-points and 7 rebounds. Miami doesn’t have great home results of late with an 0-3 run in their own building, but the Clippers are 1-6 SU their last seven on the road. In each teams last ten games the Heat actually own the better Net Rating at 0.2 compared to the Clippers at -2.5. With two fairly even teams statistically, we like the home team, off a loss against the unrested foe. Lay it with Miami.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

ASA NHL play on Detroit Red Wings -135 vs. Buffalo Sabres, 7:35pm ET - The Red Wings are in a desperate situation here coming off 6 straight losses and slipping to 12th in the Eastern Conference. Five of those six losses are excusable as they came to good teams above them in the standings. Tonight they face a Buffalo team that is 25-32 SU on the season, the 4th fewest wins on the year. Buffalo won the first meeting of the season between these two teams but the Wings have won the last two 2-1 and 6-5 in a shootout. Detroit has a clear advantage defensively allowing 3.19 goals against compared to the Sabres who rank 30th in GA/G at 3.48. Buffalo has struggled on the road with a 9-18-3 SU record away from home and are coming off a big home win over Edmonton on Monday night. In Detroit’s most recent loss they peppered Ottawa goaltender Ullmark with 49 shots but were unlucky producing just one goal. We expect the offense to have another high-volume of shot attempts tonight which will lead to a solid home win and snap this losing streak.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

#663/664 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points - Charlotte vs Rice, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season in 2 very slow paced games and we expect the same on Wednesday. In their first meeting Rice won 66-58 in a game that had only 57 possessions. The Owls averaged 1.19 PPP in that win which is way above their AAC average of 1.08. Rice averaged only 0.96 PPP which was good but not far off their 1.03 PPP in conference play. The teams combined to shoot almost 42% which is dead on their season averages. The 2nd meeting only had 60 possessions but the 2 offenses went crazy for a 78-75 final score. They averaged 1.23 and 1.28 PPP which is WAY above their averages which we posted above. They also combined to make 23 of 47 three pointers and 38 made FT’s. The 49 attempts FT’s in the 2nd meeting were 10 more than these 2 allow combined on the season. Definitely an outlier offensive performance from both teams. Both teams rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive FG%. Along with that they rank 298th and 183rd in 3 point FG% so we don’t look for a lights out shooting game on a neutral site in Denton, TX. If they don’t send each other to the FT line 50 times like the 2nd meeting, this should stay in the high 120’s, low 130’s. Under.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -110 over Virginia, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - The Yellow Jackets have played really solid since late January winning 8 of their final 12 games including wins over Clemson & Louisville who tied for 2nd place in the ACC. They are coming off one of their more embarrassing performances of the season getting held to just 43 points @ Wake Forest (69-43 loss). Tech’s 43 points, 29.6% shooting from the floor and 13% from 3-point range against Wake Forest were all season lows and we expect a bounce back on Wednesday. UVA finished the ACC season with an 8-12 record and they had only 1 win vs a conference foe that finished the season with a winning ACC record. The Cavs 2nd best win of the conference season was at home vs this Georgia Tech team which was their only meeting of the season. UVA won that game 75-61 and they caught Tech in a flat spot coming off their back to back wins over Clemson & Louisville. The Cavs simply had one of those nights offensively averaging 1.27 PPP (they average 1.07 PPP) in that win which was their 2nd highest mark of the conference season. That was vs a GT defense that has been very good ranking 5th in the ACC allowing 1.05 PPP. You can bet the Jackets will be extra focused defensively after their poor performance over the weekend and that game @ Virginia still in the back of their minds. Believe it or not, they have a huge advantage on that end of the court as the Cavs rank 16th out of 18 ACC teams in defensive efficiency. On top of that, Virginia is the worst rebounding team in the league, the lowest scoring team in conference play average 66 PPG, and they rarely get to the FT line (324th nationally in percentage of points from the charity stripe). Tech is the better team, off one of their worst performances of the year, and we’re getting them near a pick-em here in a big revenge spot. We’ll take Georgia Tech.

#629/630 ASA PLAY ON Over 145.5 Points – Montana State vs Northern Colorado, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total in our opinion. These 2 faced off twice this season and the totals set in those games were 152.5 and 149.5 and now we’re getting a total set 2+ possessions lower than that. Their first meeting was high scoring with NCU winning 83-82 coming back from 20 points down to pick up the road win. The more recent meeting in February ended with a final of 73-66 with NCU again coming out on top. In that game both teams played below their season offensive efficiency numbers (conference play) and by a decent margin. They combined to shoot barely 40% from the field which was also well below their season averages of 51% for NCU and 46% for MSU. Even with the offensive struggles, they still nearly got to 140 and this total is only 5 to 6 points higher than that. Montana State’s offense has been really good their last 3 games since benching leading scorer, big man Brandon Walker who was a high usage, ball stopper when it came to offensive ball movement. Since his benching, the Bobcats have topped their season PPP average (efficiency) in each of those 3 games. They are shooting 53% during that stretch while putting g up 81 PPG. They really don’t need to come close to those numbers in this game for it to go Over, just keep playing well offensively which we expect them to do. NCU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 51% (#1 in the country) and 38% from beyond the arc (28th in the nation). They average 81 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 75 points in 13 of their 18 Big Sky games so far this season. The Bears last 2 games were fairly low scoring, however they were both vs Weber State who is a slow paced team with a bad offense (275th in offensive efficiency). Prior to that NCU had 4 straight games that reached at least 153 total points. This should be a close game so we don’t anticipate one team grabbing a big lead and coasting, both will have to “keep up” offensively. Over is the play in this Big Sky semifinal game.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS (-130) Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild – 8pm ET - The situation is ripe for a shootout between these two teams in what shapes up to be a higher scoring game. The Wild are 11th defensively in goals against per game of 2.86 for the season and in recent action they have allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of their last nine games. Colorado is giving up an average of 2.95 goals per game which ranks 16th in the NHL. The Avs clearly have the better offensive number ranking 6th in total goals this season while averaging 3.36 per game. Minnesota is further down the rankings at 2.77 goals per game which ranks 25th. Colorado is coming off a game on Monday and have gone OVER in 5 of eight this season without rest. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has finished with 7 goals. The Wild have just two total goals in their last two games but they did have 68 total shots on goal and if they get 30 plus attempts here the sheer volume should result in several goals.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

ASA play on NY Knicks -120 at Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - The Knicks are in a solid situation here as they are off a loss on Saturday to the Lakers, while the Kings are coming off a huge Divisional game versus the Clippers. The Kings are 4-7 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative average differential of minus -3.6ppg. New York is solid off a loss this season with a 16-6 SU record with an average MOV of +7.3ppg. New York is 19-12 SU on the road this season, the Kings are 16-14 SU at home. The Knicks should find plenty of open looks with their 4th best FG% going up against the Kings 17th ranked FG% defense. New York is also the 9th best 3PT% team in the league, the King 3PT% defense is last in the NBA. The Knicks have won 3 straight in the series including a game in the Big Apple earlier this season by 23-points. NY is also 7-1 SU in the last eight versus Sacramento. Given the scheduling circumstances we like New York by double-digits in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

ASA play on OVER 238 Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - In this game we get two top 10 shooting teams with the Suns hitting 47.7% for the season overall and 37.8% from the 3-point line (4th). The Nuggets rank 1st in team FG% at 50.7%, 3rd in 3PT% at 38%. Denver is the 2nd best team in the league in Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.20PPP, the Suns rank 9th at 1.158PPP. Neither team plays much defense with the Nuggets ranking 18th in DEFF, Phoenix is worse yet, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.179-points per possession. Phoenix has allowed 116 or more points in 9 of their last ten games and Denver is putting up an average of 121.9ppg in their last ten games. We like the current betting trends as more money and tickets have come in on the under in this game, yet the line is trending up which suggests smart money action. Bet the OVER in this one.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 141.5 Points – Colorado State vs Boise State, Friday at 10 PM ET - These 2 MWC rivals met in late January and CSU won 75-72 with the total set at 140. There were only 62 possessions in that game but both offenses performed above their average efficiency in conference play. They scored 20 points in the final 3:00 minutes (game was at 127 with just over 3:00 remaining) to push it over. They combined to shoot 49% overall and 40.5% from beyond the arc, both above their season averages. This is a battle for 2nd place in the MWC and we expect the intensity level on the defensive end to be high for this match up in another low possession game. Both teams are playing outstanding right now on the defensive end of the court. Per Haslam Metrics, CSU has outperformed their expected defensive metrics in 5 of their last 6 games while Boise has done the same in 7 of their last 10 games. Per Bart Torvik analytics, since mid February, CSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and Boise in the top 60. The Rams are on a 6 game winning streak in which they’ve allowed an average of 59 PPG. Boise has allowed just 62 PPG over their last 10 games and they’ve allowed just 1 team to reach 70 points during that run. CSU has allowed only 3 teams to reach 70 points in their last 10 games. We expect another low possession game (241st and 265th in adjusted tempo) with not a lot of scoring opportunities (these 2 rank 294th and 312th in shot attempts per game). We don’t think either team tops 70 in this game which lands us on the Under.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Illinois Chicago vs Valparaiso, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 just played to close out the regular season on Sunday and hit 150 total points with UIC winning 77-73.  That game had 75 possessions, which was to be expected with these teams ranking 3rd and 4th in Horizon League tempo.  They got to 150 points despite the offensive efficiency numbers being quite low with UIC averaging 1.01 PPP (they average 1.08) and Valpo put up just 0.96 (they average 1.07).  That was their 2nd meeting of the season with the first one hitting 155 total points (with UIC winning 81-74).  In the 2 meetings they shot just 43% (108 of 250) overall and 33% from beyond the arc (27 of 81) so nothing great.  In fact those numbers are below both team’s season average and both meetings still pushed into the 150’s.  Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  If these teams step it up on offense and just hit their averages, this should get well into the 150’s or higher.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

ASA play on UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, 10:40pm ET - These two teams recently met in Detroit and produced 203 total points with the Pistons winning at home 106-97. The Clippers were coming off a game the night before and simply didn’t have the juice on the second night of a back-to-back. That has been a theme for the Clippers who are 3-9 UNDER this season when playing without rest. If the second game of that 2-game leg is at home, where they are on a 5 straight UNDER streak (5-1 for the year). L.A. is off a pair of big games against the Lakers then played Tuesday in Phoenix so fatigue will be a factor. The Pistons are coming off a 134-106 win against the 15-win Jazz who have the worst Defensive Efficiency stats in the NBA. Tonight, Detroit will face a Clippers team that is 4th on the season in DEFF allowing just 1.102-points per possession. The Pistons defense is 11th on the season in Defensive Efficiency. Detroit has faced a handful of teams recently that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play which has led to a few higher scoring games. Tonight, they face a Clippers team that prefers to play slow, ranking 17th in pace. Offensively the Pistons are 14th in OEFF, the Clippers are 22nd. We like UNDER in this one.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON OVER 160.5 Points - Missouri vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - One very interesting aspect of this match up is that this total is set 9 points higher than the first meeting on February 12th despite that game going Under the Total. That’s a tip off in our opinion. When these to met @ Mizzou the final score was 82-58 in favor of the Tigers so well Under that posted total which was 152. Both teams played well under their offensive efficiency averages in that game (PPP) with Missouri putting up 1.11 PPP (they average 1.26) and Oklahoma 0.78 PPP (they average 1.18). The teams combined to make only 9 three point shots in 34 attempts (26%). On the season they combine to average 18 three point makes per game and both shoot around 37% from deep so that meeting was way below expectation. Both like to play up tempo and there were 74 possession in the first meeting and we’d expect a similar number here. The Sooners offense averages 83 PPG at home and they rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense is not their specialty as they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 80 games. The Missouri offense ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games. While we expect both offenses to play to a much higher efficiency in this game, the one thing we can probably count on is a lot of points from the FT line. In the first game they combined to make 43 FT’s which isn’t a surprise as they each rank in the top 15 nationally in FT’s made per game. If they duplicate, or even get close, to that number while pushing their averages in offensive efficiency, this should be an easy over. Both get to at least 80 points pushing this one Over.

ASA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two Eastern Conference foes and we predict another OVER and higher scoring game. In the first two clashes these two teams combined for 235 and 232 total points. Both teams shot extremely well in both games. Cleveland is the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 1.229-points per possession. They have the best overall EFG% at 58.7% and are putting up 124ppg at home this season. Miami’s defense is not what it used to be as they rank 13th in DEFF allowing 1.134PPP. Miami is 12th in OEFF and makes a living with 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 10th in made 3-pointers, 11th in attempts and 14th in 3PT%. The Cavs defense is very good, but they do struggle to defend the 3-point line allowing 36% shooting by opponents which ranks 19th in the league. The Cavs are coming off a game last night and when they play without rest they are 9-3 OVER this season with those games going OVER by an average of +8.9ppg. This game will get into the 230’s.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - UVA began the ACC season with a 1-6 record and they’ve since gone 6-5 to pull into a tie with FSU and Pitt with a 7-11 conference mark. FSU is headed in the other direction losing 8 of their last 11 games with a lame duck (retiring at the end of the season) coach Leonard Hamilton and they’ve played below their expected efficiency in 4 of their last 5 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Cavs are the much better 3 point shooting team ranking in the top 25 nationally at almost 38% while FSU struggles from deep (280th nationally). They make an average of only 6 triples per game which ranks 327th and on the road they make closer to 5 per game. Adding fuel to the fire, the Noles are a poor 3 point defensive team ranking 12th in ACC games giving up almost 37% from deep. Needless to say, we expect the home team to have a big advantage from beyond the arc in this game. The Noles are just 2-8 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming @ Miami, the worst team in the ACC. Their other win came by 2 points @ Wake Forest in a game they trailed by 16 points with just 8:00 remaining and outscored the Deacs 28-9 from that point on. FSU wants to play fast and when they’ve faced the slowest paced teams in the ACC and forced them to play in a half court game, they haven’t done well. There are 5 teams in the conference that rank 250th or lower nationally in adjusted tempo (UVA, Clemson, NC State, Va Tech, and Notre Dame) and FSU has a record of 1-4 SU in those games. UVA is one of the slowest teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and they will force the Seminoles to play at a pace they do not like. If this is close late, the Cavs have made nearly 78% of their FT’s in ACC play. It’s their final home game of the season and we expect a huge effort from UVA. Not so sure about FSU on the road. Lay it.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

#628 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -9 over Miami, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Tech should have a huge motivation edge in this game as they played their final home tilt of the season and they are fighting to stay in 8th place to avoid the first day games (seeds 10 thru 15 play the first day).  A win tonight would give the Yellow Jackets their 10th ACC win for the first time in the last 4 seasons.  They have 13 home wins and have won 5 in a row at home.  They’re coming off a 87-62 win here over the weekend vs NC State and they’ve easily handled the lowest rated teams in the conference here at home.  The 5 lowest rated teams in the league are Miami, NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse and GT is 3-0 at home vs that grouping winning by an average margin of +18 PPG.  Keep in mind Miami is the worst of all of those teams.  On the other side of the court, Miami was just eliminated from the ACC tourney with their blowout loss @ UNC over the weekend so they have nothing to play for.  The Canes have been terrible all season (2-16 ACC record) and if they decide to bring the intensity for one final game, our guess would be it is this weekend when they host NC State and have a chance to end the season with a home win.  The Canes are 0-9 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG.  Their defense has been atrocious ranking 363rd in opponent FG% and 364th defending the arc and that’s out of 364 D1 teams.  Miami has to be distracted with interim coach Bill Courtney gone after these final 2 games and rumors swirling about who will be the next head coach (sounds like Duke assistant Jai Lucas has the inside track).  They may also be without starting C Kidd (12 PPG and 7 RPG) who has an injured ankle and missed their game over the weekend.  The Canes are 9-20 ATS and this one has blowout potential.

#863/864 ASA PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points - UCLA vs Northwestern, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game should have very few offensive possessions with these teams ranking 317th and 318th in adjusted tempo, 16th and 17th in conference play only out of 18 teams. NW has slowed the pace down even more since losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers (Barnhizer & Leach) for the season to injuries. The only way they can compete after losing that offensive firepower, those 2 combined to average 32 PPG, is to turn their games into slugfests which is exactly what they’ve done. After going on a big run of Overs this season, the Cats have now gone Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent game vs Iowa was a snapshot of exactly how they want to play. The Hawkeyes are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and are averaging 82 PPG on the year which puts them in the top 15 nationally. Last Friday night, the Cats slowed their game with Iowa to a crawl (just 61 possessions) and held the high scoring Hawks to just 57 points (68-57 final score). The NW defense has been lights out holding 4 straight opponents to 1.00 PPP or less holding those 4 opponents to 59 PPG. The Wildcat offense has actually played OK during that stretch averaging 69 PPG, however now they run into a physical UCLA defense that has much better numbers efficiency wise (17th nationally in defensive efficiency) than any of NW’s recent opponents. The Bruins have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer with only Purdue, Illinois, and USC topping that number. Those offenses rank 1st, 3rd and 8th in offensive efficiency in the Big 10. Tonight the Bruins face a Northwestern offense thar ranks 18th (dead last) in the conference in eFG% and that was with 2 of their top scorers playing the vast majority of the season to this point. With those 2 gone, we don’t see much success for the Cats offense in this one. This should be a low possession, low scoring game with both defenses dominating. Take the Under.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA play on UNDER 254 Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Our Math Model is projecting 236 total points on this game and even though we have the two fastest paced teams in the NBA facing off, we have to bet UNDER. Combined these two teams have had an O/U set of 250 or higher just one time in 160 total games this season. That was a game the Grizzlies were involved in against the Pacers which finished with 240 total points. Atlanta is 21st in Offensive Efficiency and 17th in Defensive Efficiency. Memphis is 6th in OEFF, 9th in DEFF. In the only other meeting this season between these two teams the O/U was set at 232.5 or a full 20+ points lower than tonight’s number. They combined for 240 points in that game. Atlanta has 3 big games on deck as they face the Bucks tomorrow night then the Pacers twice. Memphis has a huge 2 games looming against the Thunder and Mavericks. We doubt either team is interested in turning this game into a track meet and let’s face it, all it will take is one bad quarter by either team and they don’t get to 250. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on OVER 220.5 NY Knicks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct line on this game when they opened with 224 on this Over/Under and will now bet the value on OVER 221. For the older bettors, this is not the old days when Van Gundy/Ewing and the Knicks battled the Riley/Morning led Heat in a defensive mid-80’s type game. Gone are the days of playing defense and physicality in the NBA as it’s all about scoring and 3’s now. On the season the Heat rank 12th in Defensive Efficiency but in their last 5 games they fall to 18th. The Knicks rank 22nd in DEFF on the year, 25th in their last 5 games. The Knicks beat teams with an offense that is 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, has the 3rd best FG% at 49% and the 6th best 3PT% at 37%. New York should get plenty of good looks against a Miami defense that is 14th in FG% D overall and 17th in 3PT% defense. Miami is 12th on the season in OEFF at 1.124-points per possession and since the Butler trade has been better yet at 1.166PPP. Both teams have favored the OVER this season with a combined 65-52 record. When Miami has been a home underdog the OVER has cashed 6 of eight times. As a road favorite the Knicks are 12-9 OVER this season. In Conference games these two have a combined 42-33 OVER record. At the end of the day we are betting value in numbers and this line is to high.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON Under 147.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Sunday at 1:30 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine with 19 Unders in their 28 games so far this season and they are 6-2 to the Under at home in Big 10 play.  They have the top defense in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Sparty is allowing just 66 PPG in league play (#1 in the conference) and they allow that same number at home for the entire season.  Sparty has been able to slow down some very high level offenses this season limiting Illinois to 65, Purdue to 66, Michigan to 62, and Maryland to 55, all top 5 Big 10 offenses (efficiency).  MSU is one of the slower paced teams in the conference (14th in adjusted tempo) and while Wisconsin is playing faster this year, they still rank just 11th in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo.  The Badger defense struggled at times early in the season, but they’ve really played well over the last month and half or so vaulting all the way up to 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring allowed.  Since late January the Wisconsin defense is rated in the top 25 in efficiency per Bart Torvik.  They’ve held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 70 points.  This game has huge implications in the race for the Big 10 Title with MSU in 1st place and Wisconsin in 3rd.  We think defense rules the day in this one.  These 2 have only reached 150 points twice in their last 10 meetings and the average total points scored in those match ups is just 136.  Take the Under.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

ASA play on UNDER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - This game sets up to be slightly lower scoring than an average NBA game and there is value in this UNDER with the current number. On the season the Bucks have played at a faster rate with 100.36 possessions per game ranking 8th. Since the AS break and the trade deadline they have slowed to 100.8 possessions per game ranking 12th. Dallas is 15th (average) on the in pace of play and have remained there since the AS break. Both teams are above average for the season in terms of Defensive Efficiency with the Bucks ranking 10th allowing 1.126-points per possession, the Mavs rank 14th at 1.139PPP. Looking at both teams full season statistics, they rank in the top half of the league in Offensive Efficiency but in their last five games it’s been a different story. In each teams last 5 games the Bucks rank 18th in OEFF, the Mavericks rank 25th. The Bucks are on a 6-game UNDER streak in road games with their last 3 away from home all finishing with less than 206 total points. Dallas has stayed UNDER in 3 straight home games and 4 of their last six. Both teams’ strengths offensively are the others defensive strength so we don’t see either team putting up more than 113 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on OVER 243.5 San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - The most important aspect of this game will be the pace of play. The Grizzlies are the fastest paced team in the NBA this season at 104 possessions per game. The Spurs rank 10th in pace on the season and since Wemby went down with an injury, they have increased their pace with 3 more possessions per game. Memphis is top 10 in Defensive Efficiency for the season but in their last 5 games they rank 27th out of 30 teams. San Antonio is slightly better than league average in DEFF allowing 1.148-points per possession. The Spurs attempt the 5th most 3-pointers in the league, the Grizzlies attempt the most field goals overall so we know we will get a high number of attempts by both teams. These two teams have met three times this season which resulted in 244, 252 and 237 total points being scored. With a high tempo game we like our chances of cashing this OVER ticket.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

ASA play on OVER 226 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, 9:30 pm ET - The Wolves are coming off a game in Los Angeles last night while the Jazz were home resting and off a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. This is the same scenario earlier this season when the Wolves were off a game in Phoenix then traveled to Utah and responded with a 138-113 win. Utah is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.196-points per possession. They allow opponents to shoot 47.6% (26th) overall and 36% from the 3PT line which ranks 18th. That plays into the T’Wolves hands who rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.144PPP with the 5th best 3PT% and 18th overall FG%. Utah should put up 110+ points in this game against an unrested Minnesota defense that has slipped this season and is without Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 22nd in their last 5-games. Minnesota has allowed 120+ and have played OVER in three of their last four. Utah is giving up an average of 124.1ppg in their last ten games overall, 119.4ppg in their last 5 at home. It’s also encouraging to see the Jazz have put up some big offensive numbers against some of the leagues’ better defenses in their last 10 games. Utah put up 131 against Golden State, 110 and 116 versus the Clippers, 113 and 131 against the Lakers and 124 versus the Rockets. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last five games when playing without rest. Utah is 5-3 OVER when playing with rest advantage. In Conference games these two teams have a combined OVER record of 50-32 this season. Utah has gone OVER the total against Western Conference teams by an average of +5.0ppg. Minnesota has gone OVER against the West by an average of +1.6ppg.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

ASA Play on OVER 225 Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:40 pm ET - The current average NBA total points in a game is 226.8 points and this game sets up to be more than average. With Luka in the lineup the Lakers have played at a faster rate with over 101 possessions per game. Minnesota has been forced into a smaller lineup with Gobert injured and it’s led to a faster tempo of 101.9 possessions per game which is 7th most over a 5-game span. Both teams are top 13 in the league in Offensive Efficiency averaging more than 1.144-points per possession. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 18th in their last 5-games. Magically the Lakers defense has been better with Luka playing but that is a short-term bump as he is a below average defender. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in 4 straight games which has forced the oddsmakers hand and made them set this O/U lower than it should be. In fact, this is the second lowest O/U number on a Lakers game in their last ten games. Minnesota has played OVER in three straight games and has allowed 120 or more points in three straight games and 4 of their last six. All three meetings between these teams this year came before mid-December and all three have stayed UNDER. Last season 3 of the four clashes went OVER. We are betting value in the number and like OVER in this one.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 160.5 North Dakota vs St Thomas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - St Thomas is back home where their offense has been unstoppable. They are averaging 91 PPG at home, shooting 51% overall and 43% from deep. They are in the top 10 nationally in 3 point FG% and in Summit League play only the Tommies rank #1 in offensive efficiency, eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and they make 78% of their FT’s. Their offense should thrive in this game facing a UND defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally (out of 364 teams) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. We expect North Dakota to have success offensively here as well. They are far better offensively than they are defensively averaging 77 PPG and ranking in the top 145 in the country in offensive efficiency. In Summit League play the Fighting Hawks are averaging 80 PPG and have scored at least 70 in every game but 2. They are facing a St Thomas defense that ranks 7th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and 8th defending the arc (out of 9 teams). Both teams also like to play up tempo and in the first meeting they had 72 possessions and 168 total points with STM winning on the road 88-80. In that game St Thomas hit this conference offensive efficiency numbers dead on with 1.22 PPP while UND actually fell short of their 1.14 PPP average and only scored 1.11 PPP. They combined to make 24 three point shots in that game and we would expect similar results as these are the 2 worst teams in the conference defending the arc. We look for both teams to get to at least 80 which would put this Over the Total.