FIFA Club World Cup #238054 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint Germain Goal Line Pick'em (-135) over Real Madrid, Tuesday at 3 ET - PSG is considered the best club in the world.  That said, even though Real Madrid is also a powerhouse, it is hard to pass up on the value here with PSG available at a reasonable price on the goal line at a pick'em in this one.  Mbappe likely will start in this match for Real Madrid and he faces his former club here.  However, as talented as Mbappe is, has he really meshed perfectly with his teammates in his first season at Real Madrid?  Truly he has not and that is why it is the more cohesive PSG group that actually should prevail here in this battle.  They are so strong (including defensively) as they have allowed only 1 goal in this tournament while Real Madrid has allowed 4 thus far.  We expect PSG to frustrate the attack-minded Real Madrid and get the win here to advance to face Chelsea for the FIFA Club World Cup title. The odds favor PSG earning at least a draw in this one and we expect even more with the win and a cashed ticket, rather than a push with a draw that goes to extra time, for us here. We will take Paris Saint Germain on the goal line in this one. 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever, 12pm ET - Both teams play at a slow pace (Indiana 9th, Golden State 10th) and boast strong defenses, with Golden State’s third-ranked defensive rating (97.6) and Indiana’s fourth-ranked DNR. The Fever are particularly strong defending the 3PT line (1st 26.1% opponent 3P%). GST has the best FG% defense in the league allowing opponents to hit just 39.9% on the season. Recent trends show the Fever (11-8 to UNDER) and Valkyries 11-7, 8-2 when the total ≥160. In the only other meeting this season these two teams combined for 165 total points but both shot above expectations in that game. The defenses for both teams and a slow tempo keeps this game from going over the total.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We got to looking at this match-up because the red-hot Blue Jays have won 9 in a row and this led us to what should be a solid over here!  The White Sox are scoring a little better as they have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 4 games.  The Blue Jays have scored 6.4 runs per game in their last 14 games.  Chris Bassitt has been fantastic in Toronto this season but he has been a different pitcher on the road where he has struggled to the tune of a 2-4 record with a 6.38 ERA.  Chicago's Aaron Civale recently came to the White Sox from Milwaukee.  The change of scenery has not helped him much yet.  Civale has allowed 23 hits and walked 11 for a total of 34 baserunners in 21 innings over his first 4 outings for the White Sox.  That spells trouble against a hot Toronto team.  The Blue Jays have had 6 of the last 8 road games total at least 9 runs and this one should get there as well.  The White Sox last 3 games have all reached the double digit mark in runs.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - You might think Kyle Freeland has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Red Sox Brayan Bello has a 2.97 ERA over his last 6 starts and he delivered quality starts in all 5 starts he made in the month of June! The Rockies are 11-34 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 13 of 17 games and the Red Sox have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 9 games! Also, Boston is 15-10 in interleague action and 38 of their 47 wins this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Rockies last 23 losses featured 19 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 69 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to Monday's 9-3 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -6 vs Chicago Sky, 11:30am ET - This is a very early tipoff at 11:30am ET so be sure to get your action in ASAP. The Sky were in a perfect scheduling situation the other day when they covered against Minnesota in a loss 75-80. Those results have impacted this line which gives us value with Washington. The Mystics were recently favored by -4-points in Chicago and are now laying a number slightly higher than that at home. Washington won that most recent clash 79-72. The Mystics were playing well with a 5-2 run before losing two straight to Dallas and then Minnesota, both on the road. Prior to that though they had impressive wins over Las Vegas and Minnesota. Chicago has the 2nd worst overall Net rating in the league at -10.9. They are awful offensively and defensively, ranking 11th and 12th respectively in those two categories. Washington isn’t a whole lot better offensively, but they are solid defensively, ranking 8th in DNR. Chicago has 5 wins on the season and they’ve come against the Sun, Sparks and Wings, the bottom three teams in the league along with the Sky. We like the Mystic to bounce back after their two most recent losses and notch a big home win over the Sky early on Tuesday.

#914: ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -150 vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET Monday - The Guardians have lost 10 in a row!  Cleveland is 18-37 against teams that currently have a winning record this season.  The Astros are the top team in the AL West and have won 3 straight games and are 32-14 at home this season!  We get line value here because Houston is expected to start rookie left-hander Colton Gordon and his overall numbers are not impressive.  However, the Guardians just can not hit right now and so Gordon is likely to have one of his better outings of the season here at home.  Gordon is coming off a rough outing to begin July but it was at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado and the southpaw is coming off a June in which he delivered a 3-0 record with a 2.14 ERA.  The Guardians are expected to start Tanner Bibee here and he has a low ERA at home this season but he is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA on the road so far this season.  Since May 23rd the Astros have just 10 losses as they have a 29-10 record since then!  Compare that to a Guardians team that has 10 losses just in its last 10 games alone!  The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in 6 straight games!  Cleveland has been held to 2 or less runs in 8 of the last 10 games!  This is a great spot with a moderate, yet reasonable, price on a strong home team facing a road team that is in an epic slump right now and we like the Astros here on Monday. 

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries +6.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30pm ET - We lost the other day with GST against the Lynx, but we will come right back with another wager on them here against the Dream. Atlanta has had their fair share of ups and downs this season and are currently trending down with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. On the season the Dream have the 4th best Net rating in the league at +6.4. Golden State has been a huge surprise in their inaugural season with a 9-8 SU start to the season. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and in their last five games they have the second-best Net rating in the W at +15.5. Atlanta relies heavily on their rebound rate advantage over opponents, but they don’t have that luxury in this game against GST. The Valkyries are 2nd in the league in opponents rebound percentage, 3rd in Offensive Rebound percentage. These two teams haven’t met this season so both will be a little unfamiliar with the other teams concepts. We expect a tight game throughout and will take the points and the dog.

Sweden Allsvenskan - #207461/207462 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-115) – IF Brommapojkarna at IFK Norrköping, Monday at 1 ET - IFK Norrköping has allowed an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches here at home. IF Brommapojkarna is off a 3-0 win but shutout victories are certainly not common for them. In fact, they had allowed 1.7 goals on average in their 9 matches before that one. IFK Norrköping lost their most recent match at home 3-0 so there is no doubt they will be ready to respond with plenty of attacking here Monday. However, IF Brommapojkarna has traveled well this season and that is why we expect the goals to fly here! Look for at least 2-2 here as this one should cruise over the total.  

ASA CFL play on Edmonton +2 vs. Ottawa, 7pm ET - Despite their 0-3 record, Edmonton’s offense, led by the promising Tre Ford, showed efficiency in a near-upset against Winnipeg, and they face an Ottawa defense allowing 365.5 yards and 27.8 points per game, ranking near the bottom of the league. Ottawa’s offense, averaging just 20.0 points (9th in CFL), struggles on the road (2-8 in their last 10), and their inconsistent quarterback play may not capitalize on Edmonton’s 9th-ranked pass defense (215.0 yards per game). Historical this has been a low-scoring series, with the Under hitting in 11 of their last 14 meetings, which favors Edmonton and the points in a gritty, competitive game.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky +15.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 7pm ET - The Lynx are in a tough scheduling situation here having played last night against Golden State. This is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days. Chicago meanwhile has been off since June 29th and will be well rested for this contest. The Sky have actually played better of last with a pair of wins on the LA Sparks and a 5-point loss to the Valkyries. Last season, the Sky played the Lynx well in two of the three meetings with two losses coming by just 8 and 5-points respectively. Chicago is one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should get enough second chance baskets and limit the Lynx’s on the glass to keep this game within margin. Grab the points with Chicago.

2025 Concacaf Gold Cup, Final - #234225/234226 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-110) – USA vs Mexico, Sunday at 7 ET - This is a tremendous value with this over available at 2 goals as that means a 2-0 or 1-1 final would be a push for us.  Look for an aggressive approach from USA here and they have done damage against Mexico in recent meetings by being aggressive on the counterattack.  The last two meetings in the Concacaf competitions were both USA wins by a combined score of 5 to 0 and so they will have plenty of confidence here.  However, Mexico is the favorite here and that is no mistake.  Mexico has been great defensively heading into this match-up and also has scored 8 goals in last 5 matches.  USA has 1 low-scoring battle last 5 but the other 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece.  We trust them to score here even against a tough Mexico defensive structure but also USA will continue their defensive struggles. Look for at least 2-1 here as this one should cruise over the total.

#959 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Cleveland Guardians, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Guardians have lost 9 straight games.  We are well aware of the fact that the last 4 of those defeats have been by one run but this followed a stretch where each of their 7 losses were by 2 or more runs.  The big key though is that the Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here and Detroit is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and all 5 wins were by at least a 2 run margin.  The Guardians slump is likely to continue here as Skubal already dominated Cleveland when he faced them in May and delivered a complete game 2-hit shutout in which he struck out 13 also!  As for the Guardians starter, Gavin Williams, look for continued struggles here.  Williams has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings over his last two starts and he also walked 7 while striking out just 4 in those 2 outings.  The Tigers have won 8 of 12 and should dominate again here with their ace on the mound Sunday afternoon.  A blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries +10 at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - Minnesota’s one of the best teams in the WNBA which has them as huge favorites here, but the +9.5 spread is steep. The Valkyries’ rebounding edge and defensive tenacity, combined with their ability to stay competitive as underdogs, will allow them to keep this game within single digits. Their recent blowout win and reintegration of EuroBasket players (Salaün, Zandalasini, Fagbenle) further bolster their chances. The Lynx’s Napheesa Collier (24.4 PPG, 52.5% FG) is a mismatch, but Golden State’s hustle and second-chance opportunities should mitigate her impact. Golden State is playing at a very high level right now with a 7-3 SU record in their last 10 games. In fact, in the Valkyries last 5 games they have a Net rating of +15.5 which is only slightly lower than the Lynx at +17.8. Expect a tight game here and grab the points with Golden State.

ASA play on Montreal Alouettes -2.5 vs. BC Lions (July 5, 2025) 7pm ET - Montreal’s elite defense, allowing a league-low 308.0 yards per game and forcing 12 turnovers (tops in the CFL), should exploit BC’s turnover-prone offense (seven interceptions this season) and struggling defense, which surrenders 32.7 points per game over their last three losses. Montreal’s stout run defense (70.5 yards allowed per game) will likely neutralize BC’s James Butler (262 rushing yards), forcing quarterback Nathan Rourke into a high-pressure passing game against a secondary allowing just 193.3 yards per game. Offensively, McLeod Bethel-Thompson should rebound at home, where Montreal boasts an 11-4 straight-up record in their last 15 games. With a 3-1 record against the spread and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 against BC, the Alouettes are primed for a bounce back win after their first loss of the season last week to Hamilton.

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Action on pitchers as Drew Pomeranz is expected to just be an opener here. Bullpen game for Cubs as the injury to starter Jameson Taillon has them pitching-thin and guys like Jordan Wicks and Chris Flexen will try to fill the gaps for Chicago. Considering the incredible history the Cubs have which dates all the way back to 1903 as the Cubs and 1876 in the National League and 1870 as a franchise, would you believe they set an ALL TIME franchise record yesterday for home runs? Indeed the Cubs hit EIGHT homers in an incredible slugfest and it is a minor miracle the game only totaled 12 runs as the Cardinals also went deep once! In any event, we are expecting another slugfest here and we had our eyes on this Saturday match-up all along. Very hot weather for this one and a solid south breeze is again in the forecast here! The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon! These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long. The key here is that Matthew Liberatore just faced the Cubs in St Louis so he is giving them a quick 2nd look and the month of June was not good for him overall! The Cardinals southpaw is off a 6-inning shutout of Cleveland but the Guardians are struggling and he walked 5 in that.one. Note that, prior to that start, he allowed 20 earned runs over 27 innings spanning his last 5 starts and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark. Just as we saw in yesterday's game, these will be tough conditions for a pitcher.  Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors for slugging percentage (.440) in day games. The Cardinals have scored 8 runs in BOTH of their wins in the season series this season while the Cubs have scored at least 8 runs in 2 of their 3 wins. We just can't see anything less than a dozen runs here today at a minimum!  As noted above, there were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is again hot and breezy like yesterday's game was! This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 15 runs here.  We are very strong on the Over in this one!  

ASA CFL play on Hamilton Tiger-Cats -125 vs. Toronto Argonauts, June 4, 2025 – 7:30pm ET - Prediction: Hamilton covers the points but the best value is with the money line here. Their balanced offense (28.0 PPG, 344.0 YPG) and improved defense (27.7 PAPG, 4 turnovers forced vs. Montreal) give them an edge in this Eastern Division showdown. Bo Levi Mitchell’s efficiency (247 yards, 2 TDs) and a strong passing attack (291.3 PYPG) should exploit Toronto’s defensive weaknesses (359.5 YPG allowed). Hamilton got a much needed win last week against Montreal and we expect them to build on that positive momentum. The Tiger-Cats also have the benefit of two extra days of prep time for this game. Toronto is also off their first win of the season last week against Ottawa. The Argo’s had 7 less first downs in that game and 50-less net yards in their deceiving win. In comparison from last week, the Tiger-Cats dominated Montreal with +80 total yards and a 35-17 win. Last year Hamilton won three meetings against Toronto and have the Argo’s number. 

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Even though these two teams have not exactly been knocking the cover off the ball at the plate of late, this is still a great spot for an over as Kumar Rocker is off a rare better road start though he still allowed 8 baserunners in 5 innings of work so he was fortunate the damage was not more than 2 earned runs.  He has struggled badly on the road this season and we expect Rocker will again get rocked in this one after a rare, slightly better road start! Rocker is 1-4 with an 11.34 ERA in his 5 road starts this season.  As for Padres starter Randy Vasquez, he is coming off a bad start versus the Reds and he really labored in a number of his outings in the month of June.  The Padres have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 home games.  The Rangers, aided by some extra innings game in the stretch, have seen their confidence on the rise at the plate thanks to winning 5 of the last 8 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch.  Look for both starting pitchers to struggle in this one and that sets the tone for a game that should get into double digits Friday in San Diego.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

ASA CFL play on Calgary Stampeders +4.5 vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 9pm ET - This number is clearly inflated due to the BB’s 3-0 record and their +13ppg scoring differential. Calgary has had a few extra days off and is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Roughriders 12-20 as a 3-point favorite. We expect the Stampeders to bounce back at home in this situation. Calgary actually has the better Yards Per Play differential than Winnipeg with the Stampeders owning the best Net Yards offense in the CFL. Last season, these two teams met twice in what resulted in very close games with the home team winning both. Calgary beat Winnipeg last season (+3.5) at home 22-19 in OT and we expect similar results this season in a slightly higher scoring game. Graby the points!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - The Dallas Wings will be without their second-leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale (16.8 PPG), due to a thumb injury, severely hampering their offensive output. DiJonai Carrington (doubtful, rib injury) adds to Dallas’ backcourt woes, forcing reliance on rookie guards JJ Quinerly and Aziaha James, who scored 15 points each in a low-scoring 79-71 win over Washington. Dallas’ recent roster moves, including the return of centers Teaira McCowan and Luisa Geiselsoder, signal a shift to a slower, inside-out style, as emphasized by coach Chris Koclanes. This approach aligns with their improved defensive net rating of 100.3 over the last five games, a significant step up for a team ranked 10th in DNR league-wide. Phoenix, coming off an 84-81 loss to Las Vegas, boasts the WNBA’s fourth-best defensive net rating of 98.5 and force 16.7 turnovers per game. Their ability to disrupt Dallas’ depleted guard play should keep scoring in check. While the June 11 matchup saw both teams shoot efficiently (Phoenix 50% FG, Dallas 43%) and combine for 173 points, Dallas’ missing key scorers and Phoenix’s elite defense suggest a lower-scoring, physical game.

FIFA Club World Cup - #238029/238030 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey, Tuesday at 9 ET - Monterrey is off a 4-0 win and they also scored a goal in their 1-1 draw with Inter Milan.  A match with Borussia Dortmund is likely to open up things a little bit more as well.  Borussia Dortmund has scored 5 goals in the last two matches and they had wrapped up Bundesliga and Champions League action by averaging 3 goals scored over their last 7 matches.  So the way they can bring it on the attack coupled with Monterrey coming in off a 4-0 blowout win sets this one up for plenty of goals. Monterrey also had been scoring well in the CONCACAF competition prior to this as they had averaged 2 goals scored over 4 matches in February and March.  Look for at least 2-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.     

ASA play on OVER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - This number opened 167.5 and was bet down with news that Caitlyn Clark is still not 100% and is listed as questionable tonight. With or without Clark we like OVER the number in this one. Indiana recently played in Golden State which resulted in 165 total points being scored. The Valkyries are similar to the Lynx in two key categories, pace of play (slow) and defense (1st Lynx, 3rd Valkyries). The one big difference is offense as the Lynx are 3rd in ONR overall and have the best EFG% at 55.6%. Another great comparison is the Lynx recent game against Seattle who has similar styles of play to the Fever and that game finished with 178 total points. Seattle/Fever rank 7th, 8th in Defensive Net rating, 2nd and 4th in Offensive net rating and 2nd and 3rd in pace of play. The point we are making is that we have a solid recent reference points for each team against similar opponents to predict this outcome. Last year two of the three meetings between these two teams finished with 170 or more total points being scored. The nature of this being a high profile game should result in a faster pace and more scoring opportunities for both teams. The Fever allow 37.3ppg in the paint this season which is 3rd most in the league which means Collier should feast on Indiana’s interior defense. Minnesota is great defensively but the Fever have the 3rd best team FG% at 46.2%. We expect plenty of points and should see this game get into the 170’s rather easily.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 8pm ET - The Commissioner’s Cup will be electric tonight when the Fever and Lynx square off in Minnesota. Caitlyn Clark is questionable for tonight’s game but she is a HUGE draw for Iowa fans that will make the trip for this game. The Lynx have great home crowd support so this should be a fun environment and a big game atmosphere. Last season I distinctly remember watching the first meeting (of three) between these two teams in Minnesota and the Lynx were shellshocked by the Clark Fever and the crowd support in their home stadium. After that loss the Lynx made a statement with two double-digit wins in the next two meetings. Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA with arguably one of the two best players in the league in Napheesa Collier. The Lynx are 14-2 SU on the season and 8-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +16.3ppg. Indiana is 8-8 SU overall on the season, 4-4 SU on the road with an average MOV away from home of +0.5ppg. Minnesota is clearly the superior team with a Net rating of +14, compared to the Fever at +5.5. Minnesota has won 26 of their last thirty home games and a serious title contender this season. Indiana is improved, but a .500 record in their last 20 road games and the uncertainty of Clark has us on the Lynx in their own building.

FIFA Club World Cup - #238017/238018 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+100) – Al Hilal vs Manchester City, Monday at 9 ET - Al Hilal, prior to a 2-0 win following a scoreless draw last time out, had scored 3.2 goals per match last 9 matches!  Of course they face a much bigger challenge here and there is a reason this one features Manchester City as a 2-goal favorite on the goal line in this one.  I am well aware that Al Hilal had been winning with defense but they will not be able to hold off a Man City side that has scored 18 goals in going 5-0 last 5 matches including 3-0 in the World Cup.  Of course they will force Al Hilal out of their comfort zone here and force them to try and keep up.  City did allow 2 goals in the most recent match and we expect they are going to get burned on the counterattack by Al Hilal at least once in this match.  However, the key will be the Man City offensive firepower keeping their foot on the gas throughout and flexing their muscles here in this one similar to what we saw with PSG yesterday.  Look for at least 3-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.   

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:35 PM ET - Possible pitchers duel.  Jacob Lopez the expected starter for the Athletics and he has struck out 38 in 27 innings this month as he is having a great June.  He has been particularly dominant over his last 4 starts with only 1 earned run allowed on 14 hits in 23 innings!  Considering those phenomenal numbers plus all the strikeouts for Lopez, we don't expect much from the Rays lineup here.  At the same time, look for the Tampa Bay starter to also deliver a gem here.  Drew Rasmussen is 6-1 since mid-May and has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 8 starts!  Yes, just 1 earned run allowed per start spanning his last 8 starts!  The Athletics enter this one on a 2-6 run and they have scored an average of only 1.8 runs in those 6 losses!  As for the Rays, they are off a 5-1 loss which was the 4th time in the last 6 games that their game has totaled 6 or less runs. Our computer math model projects a total of only 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

ASA WNBA play on Seattle Storm -5.5 at Golden State Valkyries, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met earlier in June with the Valkyries winning 76-70 as a 10-point home underdog. The difference today is that Golden State will be missing four, potentially 5-players from that previous meeting. Three players are in Europe competing for their National teams and starting PG Leite has missed 3-games with a back injury. Seattle is playing well and looking for a little payback after their loss here earlier this month. The Storm have won 4 of their last five games and 7 of their last nine overall. In looking at the Storm’s last ten games we see they have the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +8.9, only behind the Minnesota Lynx. They have the best overall Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games and 3rd best Defensive Net rating. GST has played above expectations all season long and deserve a ton of credit for being 8-7 on the season, but depth is going to be a major factor in today’s outcome and too much for the Valkyries to overcome. The Storms last four road wins have all come by 7 or more points.

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins, after yesterday's 10-5 beatdown, have now lost 16 of 22 games!  The Tigers have won 4 of 6 games and also are 29-14 at home this season and each of their last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs so we are very comfortable with the run line here.  Part of the reason for that comfort level here is certainly a big pitching edge as well.  The Twins Chris Paddack has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts.  A brutally tough stretch for him.  As for the Tigers Tarik Skubal, he is having another dominating season and yet we catch him off a rare subpar outing.  It was not brutal but was not Skubal-like numbers and he is sure to respond here at home.  Prior to allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start, Skubal allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs over his 5 preceding starts!  He has been in top form while Paddack, on the other hand, has resumed his early season struggles.  The point is that this sets up as a starting pitching mismatch and also note that the Tigers bullpen ERA is 13th in the majors while the Twins bullpen ERA ranks 23rd in the majors.  The Twins are 5-10 against left-handed starters and they are 8 games under .500 on the road this season.  Detroit is 30-14 against teams that currently have a losing record this season.  Paddack has a 3-6 record this season and Skubal is 9-2 on the season with a 2.29 ERA.   All signs point to another strong home win here.  Similar to yesterday's 10-5 win, another blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

ASA CFL play on: Toronto Argonauts +2 vs. Ottawa Redblacks, 7pm ET - The Toronto Argonauts (0-3) are poised to upset the Ottawa Redblack (1-2) outright in their Week 4 CFL matchup on June 29, 2025, at TD Place Stadium. Toronto is a desperate team at 0-3 and should be highly motivated after losing late last week on a 99-TD on a kickoff return. Toronto’s historically has dominated Ottawa—winning 7 of their last 8 meetings going back to 2022. The Argo’s have won 4 of the last five meetings in this stadium. The Argonauts’ offense, led by QB Nick Arbuckle, averages just 20.3 points per game, but should bust-out facing a Redblacks D that allows 390YPG, 2nd most in the league. Ottawa’s league-leading penalty count (25 for 231 yards through three games) will disrupt their rhythm, while Toronto’s defense, anchored by LB Wynton McManis, could capitalize on QB Dustin Crum’s inexperience in his second start since 2023. The Argo’s defensive numbers aren’t great but they have faced 2 of the league’s top three offenses this season. We like Toronto to get their first win of the season.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +105 vs. New York Liberty, 3 PM ET - Atlanta’s home court and scheduling advantage should exploit New York’s fatigued roster, missing Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket). The Liberty’s grueling road-heavy week (three road games in four – all on the West Coast) and poor recent defensive rating (109.4 without Jones) make them vulnerable against this Dream team seeking revenge from a loss on June 17th.  The Liberty’s defense has allowed an average of 90.5ppg over their last four games, a stark contrast to the 79.2ppg they allow on the season.  Atlanta’s frontcourt, led by Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, can dominate inside, with Jones on the shelf. With a strong home record of 6-2 SU and the 3rd best Net rating in the W at home of +11.6,, the Dream are well-positioned for the outright win here against the travel weary Liberty.

ASA WNBA play on Under 165.5 Total Points – Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics, 8pm ET - The Mystics average 79.7 points per game this season, while allowing 80.1, and over their last 10 games, they’ve scored 80.0 points while conceding 81.1. The Wings score 81.6 points per game but have a poor defensive mark, allowing 85.6. However, in their last six games, the Wings defense has been considerably better, ranking 5th in DNR at 101.1. Notably, the Mystics’ recent three-point struggles (5.2 makes at 33.3% over their last 10 games vs. 5.8 at 35.2% for the season) and Dallas’ back-to-back fatigue could limit offensive efficiency. Their June 22 matchup totaled 179 points (91-88 in OT), but regular-time scoring was 169 and barely over this number with Washington having a full roster and Dallas not playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. In each teams last six games they have played at the 8th and 9th slowest pace in the league and rating 9th and 11th in ONR (Offensive Net Rating). We don’t see these two teams scoring more than 165 total points.

ASA CFL BC Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER 49.5 Total Points, 7pm E - Both teams face quarterback uncertainty, with BC’s Nathan Rourke (oblique injury) likely giving way to Jeremiah Masoli, who emphasizes ball security over big plays, and Saskatchewan starting Jake Maier due to Trevor Harris’ head injury. Maier’s 0-6 record in Harris’ absence last season and Saskatchewan’s depleted receiving corps (missing Samuel Emilus, Shawn Bane Jr., and Kian Schaffer-Baker) limit their passing game, while BC’s offensive line, without All-Star Dejon Allen, struggles against Saskatchewan’s top-ranked rush defense (76.9 yards per game allowed in 2024). The Lions’ offense has been inconsistent (24.9 points per game, 4th in CFL), and their games have gone UNDER twice in three outings this season. Saskatchewan’s defense, allowing 24.9 points per game (4th), excels at forcing turnovers (+26 in 2024), potentially stalling BC drives. In their last two meetings in Saskatchewan in 2024 (October 12 and November 2), both games ended with exactly 47 points (39-8 and 28-19), below the current 49.5 total, with defenses dominating via interceptions (five combined in the November game) and red-zone stops. With both teams likely leaning on conservative run-heavy strategies and facing offensive injuries, a low-scoring defensive battle is probable.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - You might think Antonio Senzatela has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Brewers Quinn Priester has a 3.69 ERA at home this season plus he is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of June! The Rockies are 10-32 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 4 straight and the Brewers have won 3 straight and also are 23-12 when facing teams that are currently below .500 on the season. The Rockies last 17 losses featured 15 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 66 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to yesterday's 10-6 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - While we are highly unlikely to get anywhere close to the 22-8 final in yesterday's game between these teams, plenty of scoring is again in the forecast here. The Rays have won 10 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Orioles rank 5th in the majors in slugging percentage when at home this season and they are averaging scoring about 5 runs per game at home this season.  Certainly they are going to build off yesterday's 22-8 win and they should pound the Rays Littell as he has allowed 11 homers in his last 4 road starts and has allowed multiple homers in 5 of his last 6 road starts.   The Orioles Eflin started this season strong but then had a 5.64 ERA last month and has a 7.40 ERA this month!  We would not be surprised, given the above scoring stats as well as the trending of these starting pitchers, to see each club again score at least 5 runs in this one.  Either way, double digits should not be a problem here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -120 vs. NY Liberty, 10pm ET - It’s apparent know, that the Liberty have some issues right now and are not playing at the level they were to start the season. New York just 2-3 SU in their last five games and the two wins were by just 5-points home against Atlanta and a 3-point win the other night in Golden State. One of those 3 losses in that stretch of games came at home against this Mercury team. Phoenix has a huge scheduling advantage here with 5-days rest compared to NY playing their 3rd straight road game and 3rd game in 6 days. The Mercury have won 5 straight games, 4 of which were on the road, 2 of those wins came in Las Vegas and New York. If we look at each teams last six games, we find the Mercury have the 3rd best Net rating in the WNBA at +9.0 compared to NY at 0.0. Phoenix has been light’s out on the offensive end of the court in that same 6-game stretch with the best Offensive net rating at 110.1. With the Liberty in a funk, we like the Mercury to win this game at home, even playing into revenge.

ASA CFL play on Hamilton Tiger Cats +2 vs. Montreal Alouettes, 7:30 pm ET - Hamilton’s league-leading passing attack (6.65 offensive yards per play, 311.5 passing yards per game) led by Bo Levi Mitchell and Kenny Lawler should exploit Montreal’s secondary (6.7 yards per pass allowed), while their bye-week rest and home-field advantage certainly factor in. Montreal is playing their 4th straight game overall and 3rd straight on the road. Montreal’s defense (5.28 yards per play allowed) has been solid, but it’s also aided by the league’s best turnover margin (+14 historically). Hamilton’s ability to generate big plays and keep the game close makes the +2 spread a value bet, with an outright win likely.

#901: ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -130 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET Friday - The Mets price has dropped today and we love the value with the road favorite here.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller is 1-10 this season.  The Pirates are 7-12 against left-handed starters this season and the Mets David Peterson has a 2.98 ERA on the season.  Pittsburgh is 23-42 against teams that currently have a winning record on the season.  The Mets are 25-16 against teams with a losing record and will build off the momentum of B2B wins over the Braves.  The Mets also have the bullpen edge over the Pirates here.  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid road team and we like the Mets here on Friday. 

FIFA Club World Cup - Rotation #238197/238198 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-135) – Al Hilal vs Pachuca, Thursday at 9 ET - Pachuca will play relaxed here as they know their fate is sealed so they may as well go out with a bang after B2B losses. Al Hilal is motivated to go hard for the victory given their situation off B2B draws so that sets this one up for plenty of goals. Al Hilal, prior to a scoreless draw last time out, had scored 3.2 goals per match last 9 matches! Pachuca, in June, had a friendly and also 2 more matches in this competition. All 3 of the games totaled at least 3 goals and Pachuca did score in all 3 of those. Look for at least 3-1 or 2-2 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.

ASA CFL play of Winnipeg Blue Bombers -10.5 vs. Edmonton Elks 8:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are 2-0 on the season and looking like a strong contender for the Grey Cup. We like them to cover the -10.5 spread against the Edmonton Elks tonight at Princess Auto Stadium. Winnipeg’s fast start features a league-best defense allowing just 17.0 points per game, contrasting with Edmonton’s 34.5 points allowed, the worst in the CFL. The Bombers’ offense averages 30.5 points, outpacing Edmonton’s 21.0, while their 6.5 yards per play dwarfs Edmonton’s 5.2. Winnipeg’s 12-game winning streak against Edmonton, including a 55-14 rout last year on this field, has us on the Bombers laying the points. Edmonton’s struggling defense is unlikely to contain Winnipeg’s offense here with QB Zach Collaros coming off a 298-yard passing day with 2 TD’s versus BC last week. Lay it with Winnipeg.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 LA Sparks vs. Indiana Fever – 7 PM ET - The Fever Offense: Averaging 84 PPG (2nd highest number in the W), led by Caitlin Clark (18.2 PPG), Kelsey Mitchell (17.9 PPG) and Aliyah Boston (15.9PPG). They rank 4th in both pace (96.34) and Offense net rating. The Sparks Offense: Averaging 81.3 PPG, with Kelsey Plum (20.4 PPG), Dearica Hamby (16.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and Rickea Jackson (12.4 PPG) driving their scoring. Their games have gone OVER the total in 9 of 15 (60%) games this season. The key here is the Sparks play at the 3rd fastest rate in the league and will gladly play up-tempo with the Fever. The defensive weaknesses for both teams can be exploited by the others. The Sparks allow 87.3 PPG; Fever allow 79.3 PPG but have struggled against strong interior scorers like Hamby. With plenty of possessions and capable scorers on both sides we expect a game well into the 170's if not 180’s.

ASA WNBA play on New York Liberty -8.5 vs. Golden State Valkyries 9pm ET - The Liberty’s league-leading pace (fastest in the WNBA) and high-scoring offense (averaging over 88 on the season) drive this prediction. Without Jonquel Jones (ankle injury), New York relies on Breanna Stewart (19.3 PPG) and Sabrina Ionescu (20ppg) to push the tempo, creating open looks and transition opportunities. The Valkyries are short 3 players who opted to play overseas for their National teams and lack depth at this point in time. The Valkyries are a great story to start the season and have over-achieved with a 7-6 SU record. GST will have a tough time keeping pace with the Liberty as they rank 12th in FG% overall and 13th in 3PT%. The Valkyries are 10th in the league in Offensive net rating. New York started 9-0 but has since lost 3 of their last four games. They are coming off a loss to Seattle and played that game without Ionescu. We like the Liberty to bounce back here and flex against the expansion Valkyries. NY has the best average point differential in the WNBA at +11.1ppg with 7 of their ten wins this season coming by 8 or more points. Golden State was recently an 11-point home underdog to the Fever, suggesting value with New York at -8. The Liberty have beaten this GST twice this season already and we expect that record to improve to 3-0 after tonight.

#912 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants bounce back off yesterday's loss here.  San Francisco is starting Logan Webb here and he is 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his 8 home starts this season.  Miami is starting Edward Cabrera here and he has a 1.52 WHIP on the road.  Cabrera has a decently low road ERA but it is giving us value here because the WHIP shows that he has been in a lot of jams in his road starts.  The Giants are 25-15 at home this season and that is after yesterday's loss.  Miami, after yesterday's win, has won B2B games but the Marlins are still only 16-31 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Miami only has 2 win streaks of more than 2 games this season!  Both ended at 3 games.  7 of the 9 times that Miami has entered a game on a win streak of at least 2 games they have lost that game.  The Giants were on an 11-6 run before yesterday's loss.  5 of the last 6 Miami losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and we forecast the same tonight.  SF bullpen ERA ranks #1 in the majors while Miami's ranks 23rd out of 30 teams!  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 7:45 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. This is a match-up of two teams that consistently have been getting involved in high-scoring games recently and it has continued into this series.  The Cardinals have won the first two games by a combined score of 16 to 9 and have scored 7.5 runs per victory in their current 8-2 run over the last 10 games.  The Cubs have had 6 straight games reach double digits in runs and just like the weather was hot in Chicago at Wrigley Field it is the same here in St Louis right now and the bats stay hot here.  The Cardinals Fedde has a 4.36 ERA at home this season and has not been overly impressive in recent starts.  The Cubs Boyd has been great at home but struggled on the road.  0-3 with a respectable 3.22 ERA in 8 road starts but opponents have hit .272 against him in those road outings and the hot St Louis sticks will give him trouble here!  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Nationals continue their resurgence at the plate.  They won yesterday's game 10 to 6 and have scored 29 runs in the last 4 games and all 4 of those games reached double digits.  We expect a similar result tonight.  Padres starter Bergert has good numbers this season but is a rookie and has made very few starts at the MLB level.  In fact, this will be his first ever home start at the MLB level.  We expect him to struggle some because the Nationals are so strong at the plate right now and, in fact, the Nats did a number on a normally solid Padres bullpen last night too.  We expect more of the same tonight and, speaking of bullpens, the Washington bullpen ERA is 5.95 this season which is dead last in the majors.  The Padres did some damage against it last night and will do the same here.  Also, the Nationals starter Trevor Williams has consistently struggled this season and his recent results have been no different.  Williams is 0-3 in 4 starts this month and he is getting hit at a .313 clip this month.  In looking at the Padres last 8 home games they had one low-scoring loss but averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the other 7 at home.  This total is simply too low given all of the above and we expect both teams to hit very well.  Bergert's low ERA is keeping this total below where it should be and he could struggle in first home start plus he does not work particularly deep in games either.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks -5 at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - Chicago is easily one of the worst teams in the league as evidenced by their negative -15.1 Net rating (12th), only the Sun are worse. Interestingly enough, the Sparks (11th) only rate one spot better than Chicago in Net rating at -6.5, but L.A. has played the 2nd toughest schedule to date. The Sparks are coming off a very tough 4-game stretch against Las Vegas, Minnesota twice and Seattle. Most recently they lost in Minnesota 66-82 after an uncharacteristically poor shooting night. The Sparks hit just 37% overall and 23% from Deep. L.A. is hitting 43% overall on the season and 33.9% from beyond the arc and should have a much better night here against a Sky defense that is one of the worst in the league. Chicago ranks 12th in opponents FG%, 13th in 3PT% D. Chicago has lost 6 of their last seven games and all six of those L’s have come by 7+ points. Earlier this season, the Sparks beat this Sky team by 13-points and we expect a similar result tonight.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox, Monday at 9:38 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. The Angels Jack Kochanowicz has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts including each of his last two home outings as well. His 4 starts this month have seen him complete less than 17 innings yet he allowed 6 homers in these 4 starts.  Buehler is coming off a tough season with the Dodgers in which he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and now he is also struggling with Boston this season.  Buehler is 5-5 but with a 5.95 ERA overall.  Also, his road numbers are particularly ugly!  Away from home Buehler is 2-4 with a 9.23 ERA this season!  Based on current form, things are not getting any better any time soon either.  Buehler has allowed 21 earned runs in 18 innings over his last 4 starts!  Like Kochanowicz, the long ball has been a problem too with 6 homers allowed in his last 4 starts.  6 of the last 9 Angels home games have totaled at least 9 runs.  The Angels have scored 16 runs in the last 2 games.  The Red Sox are off a high-scoring series in San Francisco where 2 of the 3 games reached at least a dozen runs.  Though the Boston bullpen has been solid this season the Angels bullpen ERA is one of the highest in the majors.  With both starters struggling and the Red Sox bullpen likely called upon too early and the Angels bullpen continuing to struggle, this one should fly over the total.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

FIFA Club World Cup: #238153 ASA PLAY ON Palmeiras (Brazil) +100 over Inter Miami (MLS), Monday at 9 PM ET in Seattle - Palmeiras is a tough club from Brazil. Inter Miami has the home pitch edge here but this club plays in Major League Soccer and we believe that we are going to see the MLS teams mostly struggle against the better clubs from around the world in this competition. We get line value because the match is in Miami. Truthfully that is what is making this such a great spot. The home pitch for Inter Miami means we get a much better value on the Brazil side than if this was a true neutral site match. As we saw in the first match with Inter Miami being dealt a draw in the opener of this tourney even though they were at home, these MLS clubs could really struggle here to get positive results no matter the turf they are playing on! Yes, Inter Miami has Messi but Palmeiras came into this tourney leading the top division in Brazil plus red hot overall. That said, with the stronger overall roster when you analyze these two clubs and when you consider the focused effort the visitors will bring here as these clubs are currently tied in this group, we do not see the Brazilian side being denied in this one in their quest for earning the full 3 points. We will take Palmeiras on the money line in this one.   

FIFA Club World Cup - Rotation #238137/238138 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-120) – Manchester City vs Al Ain, Sunday at 9 ET - Al Ain was hammered 5-0 by Juventus and now face a Manchester City side likely hungry to do much more than they did in their 2-0 opening win.  City has the talent to dominate a match like this and is a massive favorite with good reason.  Al Ain is from the UAE and had scored 5 goals in their last 3 matches there before struggling against Juventus here in the opener of this competition.  We expect that Al Ain will work hard to get on the board here after the embarrassing shutout loss but they also don't have the defensive talent to hold off this City squad consistently for long stretches.  Manchester City is going to get their scoring chances here and many should be high quality which they bang home.  Look for at least 3-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.  

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut +10.5 at Golden State, 8:30pm ET - The Valkyries have gotten off to a surprise start at 6-6 SU record this season. The Sun have lost 5-straight and have just two wins on the season. A couple of things stand out in this game. First off, Golden State has not been favored in a game this season, let alone a double-digit chalk. Secondly, the Valks are in a tough scheduling situation coming off a huge upset win over Indiana AND they have the Liberty on deck. Granted, the Sun have lost 5 straight but the last two came by just 3 and 8-points to Dallas and Phoenix. Plug your nose and grab the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 214.5 Indiana Pacers vs OKC Thunder, Game 7 Sunday 8pm ET - Historically, Game 7’s in the NBA in the Finals typically stay UNDER the number, but that won’t be the case tonight. The value in this number is what has us on the OVER. Every game of this series has had an O/U number of 222.5 or higher. The two teams have combined to scored 215 or more in every game but the most recent in which the Thunder pulled their starters at the end of the 3rd quarter in the blowout loss. The Thunder shot poorly in the two most recent games in Indiana by going 11 for 46 (24%) from beyond the arc. You can bet the Thunder will shoot much better at home as they have in the previous 3-games in this series where they hit 40% from Deep. OKC averaged 122.6ppg at home this season, were the 8th best shooting team in the league on their court and 7th best in 3PT%. Indiana does not have a problem playing keep up with the Thunder and will score here too. The Pacers were the 6th bet shooting team on the road this season at 48% and have found answers offensively against this OKC defense. The Pacers are averaging 109ppg vs. the Thunder in this series and hitting 36.4% from the 3-point line. This number has been adjusted too low and the value is betting OVER.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +10.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - These two teams just met on June 14th with the Lynx beating the Sparks badly, 101-78. They met one other time very early in the season with the Lynx winning 89-75 in Los Angeles. We like the revenge angle with the Sparks and expect them to be competitive in this one. LA lost most recently to Seattle but played without their best player in Kelsey Plum, who is expected back here. Minnesota is off a very big win against their biggest Western Conference rival the Las Vegas Aces and could let down here. Minnesota is 11-1 on the season with a +10.3ppg average differential. LA is 4-9 SU with a negative differential of -4.8ppg. The Sparks are the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the W and have enough scoring options to keep this game close throughout. Given the scheduling situation we will grab the points with the LA Sparks.

ASA Play on: Winnipeg Blue Bombers -4.5 vs BC Lions - 7pm June 21, 2025 - Winnipeg’s strong start to the 2025 season, bolstered by a 34-20 Week 2 win over BC, provides a solid foundation. Statistically, the Blue Bombers’ offense averages 6.5 yards per play, compared to BC’s 5.8, indicating a more efficient attack. Defensively, Winnipeg allowed just 20 points in their last meeting, while BC’s defense has struggled, conceding 28.5 points per game this season. In 2024, Winnipeg ranked third in the CFL with 24.6 points allowed per game, contrasting with BC’s 26.8. Additionally, quarterback Zach Collaros, returning from suspension, threw for 298 yards and two touchdowns in the previous matchup, outpacing BC’s Nathan Rourke, who is dealing with an upper-body injury. Winnipeg’s 11-7 record against the spread last season indicates they were undervalued in 2024 and leading into 2025. Expect a 27-20 win, covering the spread as their defense exploits BC’s injury concerns.

#923/924 ASA PLAY ON Over 12 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Very hot weather for this one and not just a south wind but a strong south wind is in the forecast here!  The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon!  These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long.  The key here is neither one of these pitchers has been that impressive of late and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark.  The Cubs Cade Horton is getting hit at a .274 clip in day games this season and with 15 strikeouts in 21 innings which is decent but not great.  He will be pitching to a lot of contact here and the Mariners pounded out 13 hits in their 9-4 win yesterday.  The Cubs had 4 runs on 9 hits yesterday and will do much better than that here.  The Mariners Emerson Hancock has struck out just 7 in 12 innings over his last two starts.  He also has allowed 21 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 road starts.  The Cubs will pound Hancock here as this will absolutely be the toughest hitter-friendly situation he has pitched in so far in his young MLB career.  Remember too that Horton is also a young hurler as he is a rookie for the Cubs so these will be his toughest conditions yet as well.  Chicago ranks 4th in the NL for slugging percentage in day games.  The Mariners rank 4th in the majors for slugging percentage in road games!  There were 6 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is even hotter and windier than yesterday's game was!  This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 15 to 16 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 or 14 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -8.5 -115 vs. Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - These two teams recently met in Washington with the Dream winning big 89-56 as a -4.5 road favorite. We won’t buy into the revenge angle here and instead like the value of a low number based on the recent meeting. Atlanta is playing well right now with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games with a Net rating of +14.2 which is the 2nd best number in the league over a 9-game span. Washington is 3-10 SU in their last 10 games with two of those wins coming against two of the leagues worst teams in the Sky and Sun. The Mystic have a negative or -4.8 Net rating in that 10-game stretch. Atlanta is one of the better offensive teams in the W ranking 3rd in Offensive Net rating, the Mystics are 10th. Defensively the numbers are closer but the Dream still rank 5th compared to the Mystic 8th. Atlanta is on an 8-2 ATS streak and are still undervalued in this game at the current price. Lay the points with Atlanta.

ASA CFL play on Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders, 7:30pm ET - Toronto boasts a strong home record, winning 16 of their last 18 regular-season home games. Their championship experience and desperation after an 0-2 start should propel them to a win here. Despite their early struggles, the Argos’ 2024 stats—averaging 26.2 points and 367.8 yards offensively while allowing 22.4 points and 353.2 yards defensively—suggest they have the firepower to compete with Saskatchewan’s 2024 numbers of 24.8 points and 354.5 yards offensively, and 21.6 points and 339.8 yards defensively. The Roughriders’ 2-0 start in 2025 has been buoyed by luck in the turnover department, forcing five turnovers in two games. However, regression is likely, as their defense has allowed 6.3 yards per play, a vulnerability that could be exploited by Toronto’s offense and quarterback Dustin Crum and Ka’Deem Carey. Saskatchewan’s offensive efficiency (6.2 yards per play) is solid, but facing a Toronto defense that held opponents to 6.0 yards per play last year, the game could tighten up. Expect the Argos to leverage home-field advantage and cover the +3.5 spread in a close contest.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON 3* Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - The Cardinals Pallante has a 5.17 ERA at home this season and overall he is struggling this month with 12 earned runs allowed in 14 and 2/3 innings over his 3 starts.  The Reds Singer has a 5.06 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting .296 against him on his travels.  The Reds have been trending to the over recently.  6 of their last 7 games have totaled more than 10 runs and the Cardinals have their bats going again as well.  St Louis has scored an average of 7 runs per game during their current 4-1 run last 5 games.  Both bullpens rank 17th or worse in the majors for bullpen ERA.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

ASA CFL play on Montreal -6 at Edmonton, 9pm ET - Montreal enters with a 2-0 record, with a dominant offense averaging 33.5 points per game and a defense allowing just 14.0 points per game, the best in the CFL. In contrast, Edmonton is 0-1 after a 31-14 loss to BC, where their defense surrendered 31-points and 448 total yards. The Elks managed only 248 total yards of offense, 87 rushing an 161 passing. The Alouettes have covered the spread in both games this season, while Edmonton has failed to cover in their lone outing. A key stat supporting this prediction is yards per play differential. Montreal boasts a +1.9 yards per play advantage (6.5 offensive vs. 4.6 defensive), reflecting their efficiency on both sides of the ball. Edmonton, however, struggles with a -2.1 differential (5.2 offensive vs. 7.3 defensive). Montreal’s balanced attack, led by Davis Alexander’s 9.5 yards per completion, should exploit Edmonton’s shaky secondary, while their top-ranked defense is likely to stifle Tre Ford’s passing game. Back the Alouettes to win and cover.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +11 at NY Liberty, 7pm ET - The Mercury have quietly put together a 9-4 SU record to start the season and did It largely without two key pieces in Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper missing multiple games. Phoenix has won 3 straight games, 4 of five and 5 of seven. New York lost their first game of the season to the Fever last weekend, then struggled to beat the Dream at home by 5-points on Tuesday. New York clearly has the best Net rating in the WNBA, but again, the Mercury have played the majority of their games without two All-Star caliber players and still have a +2.6 Net rating. Only one of the Mercury’s losses this season have come by double-digits and we expect a tight game throughout tonight. Grab the points.

#969: ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -160 @ Athletics @ 10:05 ET Wednesday - The Astros are heating up and are 6-1 L7 games and also 16-6 last 22 games!  The Athletics entered this series having won 3 in a row but this followed a 6-28 run so a 3-game sweep at Kansas City did not mean all is suddenly well. In fact, yesterday's 13-3 Houston win is a sign of what to expect tonight as well! The Athletics have gone just 13-24 at home this season and also are 11-32 this season when facing a team that is currently .500 or better on the season.  In this case this is a first versus worst match-up in the AL West.  The Astros Framber Valdez is piling up strikeouts and has averaged 11 per start over his last 3 starts and those outings averaged 7 innings!  Valdez has allowed only 11 earned runs over his last 7 starts!  The Athletics Luis Severino is 0-6 with a 7.10 ERA at home this season!  The Astros have one of the top bullpens in the majors this season while the Athletics are ranked dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA this season.   Again, this one is based on the superior team at a very fair price but you can see why we also like the projected pitching match-up here as well.  Either way, this one should be all Houston!  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid road team and we like the Astros here on Wednesday. 

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 6:45 PM ET - We won with this pick yesterday and will come right back with it again today. Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #1 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days with a sparkling .499 slugging percentage.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Marquez in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 2-8 this season with an ERA of 6.62 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 1-4 with a 7.91 ERA in his 9 road starts this season and opponents are hitting .349 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Mitchell Parker is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 9 outings.  In the other 8 outings, he allowed 35 earned runs!  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Monday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and then they had 9 homers in yesterday's game!  We look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight!  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 156.5 Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun, 7pm ET - We like a low scoring game tonight between the Mercury and Sun and won’t be surprised if this game stays in the 140’s. Connecticut is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days so fatigue becomes a factor. Phoenix is rested but has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Liberty, so as a big favorite here, may call off the dogs late in this game. Phoenix is an average team offensively ranking 7th in Net rating, the Sun are the worst offensive team in the league ranking 13th in ONR. Connecticut has scored 71 or less points in 3 straight games, 4 of their last five and 7 of their last ten games. Phoenix is 4th in Defensive Net rating at 99.6 and have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 80 or less points. Connecticut plays at the second slowest rate in the league, the Mercury are 6th in pace, but again, schedule should have them playing slower than normal tonight. Scoring is down slightly this season in the WNBA and we don’t see these two teams threatening that 155 number tonight.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 155.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 10 pm ET - We are grabbing the extra value with a contrarian bet on the OVER in this game after the line move. The Sparks score their points by playing fast with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the WNBA. They are slightly below average in terms of Offensive Net rating. Seattle plays at the second slowest pace in the W, but have the 2nd best ONR at 109.5. Seattle has the 2nd best EFG% at 55.6, LA checks in 6th in EFG% at 51.3. The Storm are 7th in Defensive Net rating at 103.9, the Sparks are 11th at 112.0. Seattle is coming off an extremely low scoring game against Golden State 70-76 but the Storm had scored 94, 89 and 83-points offensively in their three previous games. LA has been a dead-over team with a 6-1-1 O/U record in their last eight games. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 177, 172, 172 and 174 total points. The move is wrong here…BET OVER!

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 Goals – Edmonton vs Florida – Game 6 Tuesday, 8pm ET - If it’s not broken, don’t fix it! The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the series with all five games finishing with 7 or more goals. These teams are on a 7-0 OVER streak for the season when they have faced off. There have been a high volume of shots on goal in this series with 78, 88, 64, 75 in the first four games, then just 40 in Game 5 which still produced 7 goals. Goaltending for Edmonton has been subpar as Skinner and Pickard have both looked shaky at times. Bobrovsky has allowed his fair share of goals in this series too with 16 goals against in the 5-game series. We expect the higher scoring trend to continue and will back the 100% trend of OVERS in this series. 

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET - We have been watching this one since yesterday when the lines first came out and we wanted to see how the markets reacted today!  We like what we are seeing!  We watched the total closely and the fact that this total has been holding at 9.5 runs (above the key number of 9) confirms that other sharps are looking the same way we are in this game and that it is very likely headed for double digits.  This total is at 9.5 with small juice on the over as of 2 PM ET today.  Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #5 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Senzatela in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 1-10 this season with an ERA above 7.00 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 0-5 with a 6.83 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents are hitting .408 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Michael Soroka is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 5 outings.  In the other 4 outings, he allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (6 homers!) and 6 walks and 3 hit batters in 22 innings.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Yesterday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and we look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight based on all of the above.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder Game 5, 8:30 pm ET - The biggest factor in the equation tonight is the pace of play. The pace of play has slowed significantly for these two teams and field goal attempts are down for both teams in this series. Indiana has stepped up defensively and the Thunder are the best defensive team in the league. The entire NBA averaged 89 (x 2 = 178) field goal attempts per game in the regular season and games averaged 227 total points per game. These two combined for 168 total FGA’s per game in the first 3 games of this series and then just 158 in Game 4. The 3-point attempts for both teams are trending down in this series with 67.4 3-point attempts (NBA ave. 74.8) in Games 1-3, then just 52 in Game 4. In Game 4 we had a Scott Foster led officiating crew that was whistle happy which resulted in 71-free throw attempts which is abnormally high for a NBA game (43 league ave.) This series has now gone to a whole different level and playoff pressure and intensity will ramp up for both teams. It will result in a lower scoring game and UNDER.

FIFA Club World Cup: #238023 ASA PLAY ON Botafogo (Brazil) +115 over Seattle Sounders (MLS), Sunday at 10 PM ET in Seattle - Botafogo is a tough club from Brazil.  Seattle has the home pitch edge here but this Sounders club plays in Major League Soccer and we believe that we are going to see the MLS teams mostly struggle against the better clubs from around the world in this competition.  We get line value because the match is in Seattle.  Truthfully that is what is making this such a great spot.  The home pitch for Seattle means we get a much better value on the Brazil side than if this was a true neutral site match.  As we saw last night with InterMiami being dealt a draw even though they were at home, these MLS clubs could really struggle here to get positive results no matter the turf they are playing on!  Botafogo knows this match is critical because of being in the same grouping with PSG and Atletico Madrid. That said, with the stronger roster when you analyze these two clubs and when you look at the focused effort the visitors will bring here, we do not see the Brazilian side being denied in this one in their quest for earning the full 3 points. We will take Botafogo on the money line in this one.  

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164.5 Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces, 7pm ET - We expect plenty of points in this one with our model projecting 168.3 total points. LV will be without A’ja Wilson again but they have three other double-digit scores to pick up the slack including Young and Lloyd who are coming off 28 and 21-point games against Dallas. Phoenix could also see the return of a key component today in Kahleah Copper who averaged 21.1ppg last season. The Mercury also recently got a boost with the return of Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack. Games involving the Aces this season have averaged 166 total points per game which is above the league average for a game of 162. Games involving the Mercury have averaged 164 total points per game and that is without two of their leading scorers missing the majority of those games. Las Vegas pushes the tempo with the 2nd fastest pace of play in the league, the Mercury are 8th, but in their last three games they’ve played at a faster rate. These teams have had some turnover from last season but the four meetings a year ago finished with 169, 186, 202 and 176 total points being scored. We expect a higher scoring game again today!

#908: ASA PLAY ON 2* Chicago Cubs Money Line -150 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET Sunday - The Pirates had a recent little 4-game win streak at home but their road struggles continue.  Pittsburgh dropped to 10-24 on the road this season with yesterday's 2-1 loss.  The Pirates also are 19-36 against teams that currently are at .500 or above on the season!  The Cubs, on the other hand, are 22-12 at home this season plus they are 21-6 in games against teams that currently have a losing record on the season.  This is a first versus worst match-up in the NL Central and the Cubs also have a decided pitching edge here.  Chicago's Colin Rea has a 3.67 ERA at home this season plus had a strong start in his only outing against the Pirates this season which was back in May.  Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is 1-9 this season and the win was way back in March and he is 0-9 since then!  The Pirates often struggle to score runs so Keller is unlikely to get much run support here.  Pittsburgh has a .339 slugging percentage this season and that is dead last in the majors.  The Cubs have a .416 slugging percentage in day games and that ranks 8th in the majors while the Pirates .312 slugging percentage in day games is dead last!  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid home team and we like the Cubs here on Sunday. 

#915 ASA PLAY ON 3* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are in a great spot here.  They have lost B2B games to the Red Sox by 1 run apiece and have not lost 3 straight games in over a month.  They have a decided pitching edge here too.  Max Fried is having a phenomenal season and this includes going 5-0 with an ERA under the 1.00 mark in his day game starts this season!  Fried has been a beast on the mound this season. The Red Sox are expected to start Brayan Bello here and he has an opponents batting average of .285 in home games and .312 in day games.  He has a 1.90 WHIP in his 5 day game starts this season as issuing too many walks has also been a problem for him.  The Yankees are 6-2 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games.  Boston is on a 4-0 game winning streak and, dating back to last July, the Red Sox are 1-4 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games.  Pitching mismatch and a Yankees team fully focused on avoiding the sweep.  The road team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA CFL play on OVER 51.5 Roughriders at Tiger Cats – 7pm ET - The Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0) face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1) on June 14, 2025, at Tim Hortons Field, with the Over 52 total points our wager on this game. Saskatchewan’s Week 1 win (31-26 over Ottawa) showcased QB Trevor Harris’s efficiency (73% completion, 277 yards, 2 TDs) and a turnover-forcing defense (best in 2024), bolstered by new RB Ka’Deem Carey (1,060 yards in 2024). Hamilton’s Week 1 loss (38-26 to Calgary) highlighted their pass-heavy attack (Bo Levi Mitchell: 300+ yards) and 2024 league-leading 5.23 yards per play, though their run defense struggled (150+ yards allowed). With Saskatchewan’s efficient 13.18 yards per point and Hamilton’s 13.94, plus fast-paced offenses (0.0192 and 0.0189 plays per second, respectively), the CFL’s three-down format and these teams’ scoring trends (26.6 and 25.5 PPG in 2024) support a high-scoring game, much like last year with 63 and 56 points being scored in two meetings.

#958 ASA PLAY ON 2* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-160) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 6-29 on the road and 7-43 against teams with a winning record this season.  Braves have struggled at times this season but the Rockies have taken struggling to a whole other level this season!  We get some value here because Spencer Strider is a much better pitcher than his 0-5 record this season shows.  He also is trending the right way as he has allowed only 10 hits over nearly 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Based on how he has looked on the mound he is "almost there" and now facing a struggling Colorado team is likely to lead to Strider's first win of the season in a huge way.  The Braves last 10 wins in fact were all by a double digit margin and the average margin of victory was 4.6 runs!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie who faced the Braves (and had some success) earlier this season.  The key here is this is the first time the rookie has had to face the same team twice!  Atlanta gets to him in the rematch!  He has a 6.85 ERA on the season and Dollander was just rocked by the Mets in most recent start.  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#956: ASA PLAY ON 4* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -120 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET Saturday - We were on the Brewers Thursday in an excellent high value home underdog spot that cashed easily for us with a shutout win.  Now, after another win for Milwaukee in a tight 3-2 game yesterday, the Brewers are in a great spot for us to ride them again here on Saturday.  The Cardinals are 14-20 on the road this season and the Brewers are 22-14 at home.  Overall Milwaukee is on a 13-5 run while the Cardinals have lost 10 of 14 games.  St Louis is starting Pallante here and he has a 6.23 ERA in his last 4 starts and the Brewers send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound here.  He has been great this season as he has had only 1 bad start out of 8 starts this season!  In the other 7 starts he has allowed only 7 earned runs over 39 innings for a minuscule 1.62 ERA!  The Brewers are the hotter team and have home field edge plus the starting pitching edge and their run continues!  This is a great spot with a small price on a solid home team and we like the Brewers here again on Saturday. 

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5 at Indiana Fever, 3pm ET - We admittedly lost with this same wager earlier in the season when the Liberty won by 2-points in Indiana, favored by 4-points. Indiana will have Caitlyn Clark back in the lineup after missing 5 games (2-3 SU) which should be a plus for the Fever, but we also feel it’s going to cause some disruption. Clark is a ball-dominant player and sometimes prone to trying to do too much. For the most part though, the Liberty are off to a historic start and clearly the best team in the league and it’s not very close at the moment. New York has a Net Rating of +23.4 on the season and the next best team Minnesota is +10.9. Indiana is 3rd in Net Rating at +6.9. NY is 9-0 on the season with an average +/- of +19ppg. They are the best shooting team overall and 3rd in 3PT%. This is a short number, and the Liberty typically win as a road favorite with a 16-4 SU record their last twenty in that role. After a close win earlier this season the Liberty won’t take this Fever team likely and they’re also hungry for that 10-0 start (only 4th team in W history to start with at least 10 straight wins).

#912 ASA PLAY ON 1.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -185 over San Francisco Giants, Friday at 10:40 PM ET - The Giants Logan Webb, since the start of the 2023 season, has been much stronger at home than on the road.  He went 4-7 with a 4.31 ERA two years ago and last season he was 6-5 with a 4.11 ERA in his road starts.  This season he has again dominated at home but is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA on the road.  This is a tough spot for him as he faces a Dodgers team that is one of the top slugging teams in the majors plus LA is 23-11 at home this season.  The Giants are only a .500 team in road games this season.  The Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 2.20 ERA this season and is holding hitters to a .186 batting average on the season.  The Giants are in a tough spot here after the bad loss at Colorado yesterday where they blew the game in the bottom of the 9th.  The Dodgers come into this one 6-3 L9 home games and, unlike SF, the Dodgers were off yesterday and their prior road series was just down the road here in San Diego.  A lot of edges for the home side in this one plus LA took 9 of 13 from SF last season and they get the upper hand again here in their first meeting this season.  We will keep the rating low here but you can see why we are willing to lay the price with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Friday! 

ASA WNBA play on OVER 168.5 Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces – 10pm ET - These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league which means we will get a high possession game between these two teams. LV averages 96.98 possessions per game (3rd), the Wings average 96.82 (4th). Neither team will face much opposition defensively as the Wings have the 11th rated DNR at 109.3, the Aces have been a major disappointment on that end of the court with the 9th rated DNR at 103.5. The Aces allow opponents to make 47.3% of their FGA’s (10th), Dallas rank 11th in that same defensive category allowing foes to hit 46.7% of their attempts. The Wings give up nearly 90ppg on the season, while the Aces allow 83.9ppg, which ranks in the bottom 4 of the W. Las Vegas will be without reigning MVP Wilson in this game but they still have capable scorers in Gray and Young who should step up with Wilson sidelined. The Wings got rookie PG Bueckers back from injury in their last game who promptly scored 35-points in her return. Strangely, this line opened much lower than the current number and was bet up after the news of Wilson’s injury. We will back the move and BET OVER!

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

ASA CFL play on UNDER 50 BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 8:30 pm ET - We are betting UNDER in this game with our model projecting 44.7 total points as the O/U. BC has a game under their belt after 31-14 win over Edmonton last week. The Lions exploded for 28-points in the second half after putting up just 3-points at the break. This week it’s going to be much tougher for the Lions and QB Rourke to move the ball and put up points against a Blue Bombers defense that allowed 20.3ppg in 2024, the lowest number in the CFL. Winnipeg gave up the fewest yards per game at 329.7 a year ago and are projected to be just as good on that side of the football in 2025. The Blue Bombers will be without their starting QB Zac Collaros in the opener who is suspended for this game. Collaros led the CFL with 420 completions, 5,451 passing yards and 32 TD’s in 2024. That means the BB’s will lean on RB Oliveira, the league MOP in 2024, to carry the load offensively. BC is solid defensively as they showed last week allowing just 14-points to Edmonton, who averaged 28ppg in 2024. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest YPG last season and PPG at 24.4ppg. In the three meetings last season these two teams produced 50-points, then 25 and 31. We like the trend of the two most recent meetings to continue and will be on the UNDER here!

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers +133 at Florida Panthers, 8pm ET - The first two games of this series went to OT before the Panther crushed the Oilers in Game 3 by a 6-1 margin (we were happy with that result). Edmonton committed some head-scratching penalties in the last game and should clean up those errors in this ‘must-win’ game. The Oilers have outshot the Panthers in every game of this series and 4 of five meetings this season. Oilers Connon McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (playoffs top two point leaders with 26 and 25 points respectively) were held without a point in the last game so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Florida is 30-16 SU as a home favorite this season, but the Oilers are a respectable 13-7 as a road dog. Edmonton has been one of the NHL’s best road teams this postseason, posting a 6-3 record away from Rogers Place, including six wins in their last seven road games. We like the Oilers in this one.

#956: ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +130 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:40 ET Thursday - This is an excellent high value home underdog spot here.  The Cardinals are 14-18 on the road this season and the Brewers are 20-14 at home.  St Louis is highly over-valued here because Sonny Gray shows the markets a 7-1 record and 3.35 ERA on the season.  However, he also has been much better at home than on the road both seasons since coming to St Louis.  This season he has benefited greatly from having only 4 road starts compared to 9 home starts this season.  In the 4 road starts he has a 4.57 ERA.  Last season he went just 4-4 with a 5.20 ERA on the road.  This season Gray allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in 6 innings versus the Brewers and last season he got hammered in one of his two starts here in Milwaukee.  We like the Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski here.  This is his MLB debut but he is at home and that helps a lot for a young hurler and this guy comes in highly touted and it was with good reason.   Mosiorowski is a tall flame-thrower that gets plenty of strikeouts and we expect him to give this Cardinals lineup all sorts of trouble here.  He has held hitters to a .170 batting average throughout his minor league career and he has been consistent.  Yes that is the minors but with every level up he has continued to shine and that is why he is here now!  The Brewers are off a 6-2 loss and are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game coming off a loss in which they allowed at least 2 runs.  Overall Milwaukee is on an 11-5 run while the Cardinals have lost 8 of 12 games.  This is a great spot for a home dog upset and we like the Brewers here Thursday. 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 167.5 LA Sparks at Las Vegas Aces, 10pm ET - These teams recently met in Las Vegas and produced 177 total points. That game went OVER the number of 167. Clearly the oddsmakers feel they were right with that number just over a week ago and are baiting bettors to play OVER in this game. In that game, both teams shot well above season averages with the Sparks hitting 47% overall and 29% from the 3-point line. Las Vegas sot 46% overall and 48% from Deep. There were 136 field goal attempts which is slightly higher than the league average of 133.8. We expect a regression in shooting tonight as the Sparks rank 5th in the league in FG% at 43.5%. The Aces are the 2nd worst shooting team in the W at 39.2%. After being the 5th best defensive team in the league the Aces have slipped to 8th this season. They are coming off a humbling loss to Golden State in which they allowed 95-points to the expansion Valkyries. The Sparks have had some issues on the defensive end of the court ranking 10th in DNR, but this is a big rivalry and they are coming off a solid showing against GST in which they allowed 78-points in regulation. Play contrarian here and put yourself of the UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - We expect plenty of field goal attempts, made shots and points in this Western Conference showdown. Both teams could be getting key contributors back tonight as rookie Paige Bueckers is projected to play for the Wings and Alyssa Thomas could be in the lineup for the Mercury. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 97.08 possessions per game. The Mercury are around league average in pace at 96.54. Phoenix is 4th in the league in Defensive Net rating but the Wings are 3rd to last in DNR. The Wings are the highest scoring team in the league at 81.6ppg, Phoenix is11th at 78.6, but let’s not forget they have been without All-WNBA player Thomas and here 15.2ppg for the past 5 games. In the last four meetings between these two teams, one has scored 97+ points and the O/U is 4-0 with the games averaging 192.5ppg. 

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 OKC Thunder at Indiana Pacers Game 3 8:30 pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet in the last game but will zig-zag here and play UNDER in Game 3. In Game 2 these two teams had huge 3rd and 4th quarters with 67 and 63 combined points. In the game there were 164 field goal attempts which is 14 less than the league average this season. These teams are averaging 100 possessions per game in this series and both teams Offensive Net ratings has dropped significantly in the first two games compared to the rest of the previous playoff series. OKC’s defense is suffocating with a Defensive Net rating of 109 in this series. The Thunder have an EFG% of 50.8% which is well below their season average of 56%. With the regression in pace of play, a shift to a new venue, defensive intensity from both teams in this crucial Game 3 we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Spain La Liga 2 Playoffs: Rotation #202009/202010 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Real Oviedo vs Almeria, Wednesday at 3 ET - Strong spot for an under in the 2nd leg of this match-up.  The 1st Leg was a 2-1 Real Oviedo win and now they will look to stifle Almeria here and hang on to complete the victory.  We like the fact that Real Oviedo has allowed only an average of only 0.5 goals in going undefeated in the last 10 matches.  Yes, just 5 goals allowed in the last 10 matches.  Almeria has also been strong defensively.  Prior to allowing 2 goals in the 1st Leg of this battle, Almeria allowed only 3 goals in the last 6 matches for an average of 0.5 goals per match.  Given the situation and the recent defensive-minded performances of each of these clubs, we will confidently take the under here.