ASA play on UNDER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - This game sets up to be slightly lower scoring than an average NBA game and there is value in this UNDER with the current number. On the season the Bucks have played at a faster rate with 100.36 possessions per game ranking 8th. Since the AS break and the trade deadline they have slowed to 100.8 possessions per game ranking 12th. Dallas is 15th (average) on the in pace of play and have remained there since the AS break. Both teams are above average for the season in terms of Defensive Efficiency with the Bucks ranking 10th allowing 1.126-points per possession, the Mavs rank 14th at 1.139PPP. Looking at both teams full season statistics, they rank in the top half of the league in Offensive Efficiency but in their last five games it’s been a different story. In each teams last 5 games the Bucks rank 18th in OEFF, the Mavericks rank 25th. The Bucks are on a 6-game UNDER streak in road games with their last 3 away from home all finishing with less than 206 total points. Dallas has stayed UNDER in 3 straight home games and 4 of their last six. Both teams’ strengths offensively are the others defensive strength so we don’t see either team putting up more than 113 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on OVER 243.5 San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - The most important aspect of this game will be the pace of play. The Grizzlies are the fastest paced team in the NBA this season at 104 possessions per game. The Spurs rank 10th in pace on the season and since Wemby went down with an injury, they have increased their pace with 3 more possessions per game. Memphis is top 10 in Defensive Efficiency for the season but in their last 5 games they rank 27th out of 30 teams. San Antonio is slightly better than league average in DEFF allowing 1.148-points per possession. The Spurs attempt the 5th most 3-pointers in the league, the Grizzlies attempt the most field goals overall so we know we will get a high number of attempts by both teams. These two teams have met three times this season which resulted in 244, 252 and 237 total points being scored. With a high tempo game we like our chances of cashing this OVER ticket.

ASA play on OVER 226 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, 9:30 pm ET - The Wolves are coming off a game in Los Angeles last night while the Jazz were home resting and off a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. This is the same scenario earlier this season when the Wolves were off a game in Phoenix then traveled to Utah and responded with a 138-113 win. Utah is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.196-points per possession. They allow opponents to shoot 47.6% (26th) overall and 36% from the 3PT line which ranks 18th. That plays into the T’Wolves hands who rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.144PPP with the 5th best 3PT% and 18th overall FG%. Utah should put up 110+ points in this game against an unrested Minnesota defense that has slipped this season and is without Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 22nd in their last 5-games. Minnesota has allowed 120+ and have played OVER in three of their last four. Utah is giving up an average of 124.1ppg in their last ten games overall, 119.4ppg in their last 5 at home. It’s also encouraging to see the Jazz have put up some big offensive numbers against some of the leagues’ better defenses in their last 10 games. Utah put up 131 against Golden State, 110 and 116 versus the Clippers, 113 and 131 against the Lakers and 124 versus the Rockets. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last five games when playing without rest. Utah is 5-3 OVER when playing with rest advantage. In Conference games these two teams have a combined OVER record of 50-32 this season. Utah has gone OVER the total against Western Conference teams by an average of +5.0ppg. Minnesota has gone OVER against the West by an average of +1.6ppg.

ASA Play on OVER 225 Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:40 pm ET - The current average NBA total points in a game is 226.8 points and this game sets up to be more than average. With Luka in the lineup the Lakers have played at a faster rate with over 101 possessions per game. Minnesota has been forced into a smaller lineup with Gobert injured and it’s led to a faster tempo of 101.9 possessions per game which is 7th most over a 5-game span. Both teams are top 13 in the league in Offensive Efficiency averaging more than 1.144-points per possession. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 18th in their last 5-games. Magically the Lakers defense has been better with Luka playing but that is a short-term bump as he is a below average defender. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in 4 straight games which has forced the oddsmakers hand and made them set this O/U lower than it should be. In fact, this is the second lowest O/U number on a Lakers game in their last ten games. Minnesota has played OVER in three straight games and has allowed 120 or more points in three straight games and 4 of their last six. All three meetings between these teams this year came before mid-December and all three have stayed UNDER. Last season 3 of the four clashes went OVER. We are betting value in the number and like OVER in this one.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 160.5 North Dakota vs St Thomas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - St Thomas is back home where their offense has been unstoppable. They are averaging 91 PPG at home, shooting 51% overall and 43% from deep. They are in the top 10 nationally in 3 point FG% and in Summit League play only the Tommies rank #1 in offensive efficiency, eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and they make 78% of their FT’s. Their offense should thrive in this game facing a UND defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally (out of 364 teams) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. We expect North Dakota to have success offensively here as well. They are far better offensively than they are defensively averaging 77 PPG and ranking in the top 145 in the country in offensive efficiency. In Summit League play the Fighting Hawks are averaging 80 PPG and have scored at least 70 in every game but 2. They are facing a St Thomas defense that ranks 7th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and 8th defending the arc (out of 9 teams). Both teams also like to play up tempo and in the first meeting they had 72 possessions and 168 total points with STM winning on the road 88-80. In that game St Thomas hit this conference offensive efficiency numbers dead on with 1.22 PPP while UND actually fell short of their 1.14 PPP average and only scored 1.11 PPP. They combined to make 24 three point shots in that game and we would expect similar results as these are the 2 worst teams in the conference defending the arc. We look for both teams to get to at least 80 which would put this Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Dallas Mavericks at LA Lakers, 10 pm ET - It’s the Luka revenge game in Los Angeles tonight! With NBA ratings at an all-time low this will certainly be a huge promotion for the league tonight as Luka Doncic takes on his former team. With that in mind, this O/U number has been inflated at the value in the numbers suggest UNDER. What I’m about to say next is going to shock you. For the season the Lakers defense ranks 13th in Defensive Net rating but since the Luka addition they have improved to 2nd best in the league. Granted, it’s only been 3-games but for whatever reason the Lakers defense has been better since the AS break and Luka is not known for his defense. Dallas is 13th for the season in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.143-points per possession and have maintained that number in their most recent 5-game stretch. Five of the last six games involving the Mavericks have stayed UNDER 228 points. The last three Laker games have all finished with 223 or less points and that includes a game against Denver who has the 2nd best OEFF rating in the NBA. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. These two teams are only slightly better than league average in terms of Offensive Efficiency, so we don’t expect either team to put up massive offensive numbers. This game sets up to be closer to the league average of 226 than the number set by the oddsmakers.

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 points - Marist vs Niagara, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 are each coming off rare high scoring games on Friday evening and we think they get back to their lower scoring ways on Sunday. Marist faced off vs Canisius with a total of 131 and the final score was 89-81 going way over the total. They put up 1.29 and 1.41 PPP which is WAY above their averages of 1.03 and 1.00 PPP. Niagara faced Siena on Friday with the total set at 136 and the final score was 94-60. Niagara didn’t do much offensively with 60 points on 0.90 PPP but their defense was horrendous. Siena, the 3rd most efficient offense in the league, put up 94 points on 1.40 PPP. Two very slow paced teams (both outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo) so we won’t see many possessions here. In their first meeting these 2 scored 132 total points and that was in OT with Marist winning 67-65. At the end of regulation it was 57-57 and they totaled just 65 possessions and that included OT. It wasn’t as if the offenses were terrible either as both hit their average efficiency (PPP) in that game. That total was set at 126.5 so we’re getting some solid value with this opener at 130. These 2 MAAC rivals have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 with their only Over being the game in OT earlier this season. Low scoring, low possession game here.

ASA play on UNDER 222 Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - For starters, these two teams have favored the UNDER all season with a combined 46-62-2 record. In the last 15 NBA games these two teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in Offensive Net Rating. In that same time frame the Blazers are averaging 112.7ppg (22nd) while the Hornets are scoring 104.2ppg (28th). Both play at a much slower rate than league average with the Blazers ranking 18th in pace, the Hornets are 24th. Charlotte is above average in terms of Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.141-points per possession, the Blazers are below average allowing 1.163PPP, but in their last 15 games the Blazers defense rates 4th best in the league. Neither team is great shooting with the Hornets 29thh in EFG%, the Blazes are 24th. In their last ten games the Hornets and their opponents have scored more than this O/U number just three times. Charlotte’s offense has scored 104 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Portland has held 7 of their last eight opponents not named Denver to 114 or less points. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 199 total points. We like UNDER here.

#647/648 ASA PLAY ON Under 137.5 Points – Stony Brook vs North Carolina A&T, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We were on the NC A&T Under on Thursday night vs Campbell and cashed easily with a final score of 53-50 in favor of A&T. As we mentioned on Thursday, NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 56th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 5 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 5 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62, 66, and 64. Not one of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. Stony Brook’s offense isn’t much better ranking 266th in efficiency, 336th in FG%, and 342nd in scoring at just 66 PPG. On top of that, the Seawolves are very slow paced (314th in adjusted tempo) so the possessions in this game will be very limited. When these 2 met in January it was a high scoring game with Stony Brook winning 89-74. That was vs a completely different A&T team that was playing fast paced at the time and was very poor defensively. The Aggies have turned the corner on the defensive end holding 5 straight opponents to under their season PPP average and none of those opponents topped 1.06 PPP. Both teams averaged well above their season offensive efficiency average in that game but we expect them to come back to their averages and if that happens, this stays way Under. The oddsmakers still haven’t caught up to A&T’s drastic change and we’ll take advantage with another Under on Saturday.

ASA play on OVER 236.5 New Orleans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met on Jan 29th and produced 273 total points. Both teams had 96 field goal attempts in the game and each hit over 53% from the field. They also were dialed in from Deep with the Mavs hitting 20/43 3-pointers, the Pelicans made 15/31. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, one of the two teams has scored 119 or more points. In that same 7-game stretch these two have combined for 235 or more points five times. A big reason why these two teams have played in higher scoring games of late is their lack of defense. In the last 10 games the Mavericks have the 29th rated Defense in terms of Net rating at 120.7. The Pelicans are last in the NBA at 123. The Pelicans are 12th in pace of play this season, the Mavericks are 15th. We expect plenty of points in this one and like OVER.

#775/776 ASA PLAY ON Under 138 Points – Campbell vs North Carolina A&T, Thursday at 7 PM ET - NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 48th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 4 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 4 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62 (vs Campbell tonight’s opponent), and 66 and not of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Campbell defense that ranks #1 in the CAA in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed so we don’t expect much success offensively for the Aggies. When these 2 met less than 2 weeks ago they totaled 128 points (66-62 Campbell win) on just 62 possessions. They combined to shoot almost 48% and both hit well above their season average FG% in that game yet still didn’t reach 130 total points. We look for a similar outcome tonight which leads to another Under.

#306533/306534 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Texas Southern vs Southern, Monday at 9 PM ET - The 2 top defensive efficiency teams in the SWAC face off tonight in Baton Rouge. They are also #1 and #2 in the conference in eFG% allowed while giving up just 65 PPG (Southern) and 66 PPG (Texas Southern). In league play Texas Southern’s defense allows opponents to shoot just 38% (best in the SWAC) while Southern is allowing just 40% from the field (2nd best). We could also see a number of wasted possessions in this game as both teams rank in the top 100 nationally at creating turnovers while both offenses rank outside the top 240 in turnover rate. These 2 met back in January and totaled just 125 total points with Southern winning 68-57. That’s been a common theme in this rivalry with the total points scored in their last 7 meetings looking like this (starting with most recent)…125, 124, 119, 147, 126 (in regulation), 128, and 113. These teams do like to play up tempo but that didn’t matter in the first meeting as the defenses are absolutely the strength of both teams with the offenses ranking outside the top 300 in both efficiency and eFG%. If we look at these teams vs the top 5 defensive teams in the SWAC (defensive efficiency), they’ve faced those teams a total of 8 times combined and only one of those games has topped 143 total points. Six of those eight games didn’t even reach 130 total points. The total points scored in those 8 games vs the top 5 defensive teams in the conference was 131. We don’t see this match up reaching 140 total points so we’ll grab the Under.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 Points – Rider vs St Peters, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This game should be a slow paced, low possession affair. Both teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and in their first meeting they only had 60 possessions. The total set on that game was 124.5 and the final score was 67-64 so we’re now getting some solid value on the Under which is set 5 points higher (at the open) compared to the first meeting. In that game they had combined for just 123 points with 25 seconds remaining in the game and they went on to score 8 points from that point on. Both teams played well above their average offensive efficiency with Rider putting up 1.12 PPP (they average 1.01 PPP on the season) while St Peters averaged 1.07 PPP in that game (they average 0.96 PPP on the season). These are 2 poor offenses going at it on Sunday. St Peters is dead last in the MAAC in efficiency, scoring, FG%, and 3 point FG%. Rider ranks 348th nationally in scoring, 317th in FG%, and 345th in 3 point FG%. Neither team gets to the FT line very often both ranking outside the top 200 in FT made per game. In their 13 MAAC games, St Peters has gotten to 70 points just one time and they’ve been held to 65 or less 9 times. Rider has been a little better scoring wise but they’ve been held below 70 points in 10 of their 14 conference games. If these teams don’t play well above their offensive efficiency as they did in the first meeting, we just don’t see this game getting into the 130’s. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA PLAY ON Over 156.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs St Thomas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a very similar spot to Thursday night when Omaha traveled to South Dakota State and we were on the Over in that game and it cashed easily. In this one we have 2 teams that like to play up tempo and 2 of the best offenses in the Summit. These 2 rank #1 and #2 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they both average 84 PPG in conference play. They each shoot over 41% from beyond the arc (top 2 in the conference) and when they get to the FT line they convert at 75% and 76%. St Thomas is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 3rd in the country in FG% and 7th in 3 point FG%. Those numbers get better at home where they average 90 PPG. Nebraska Omaha put up 85 on Thursday vs the #1 defensive efficiency team in the conference, South Dakota State, and they have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their 12 Summit League games. These offenses should have big time success as the defenses are nothing to write home about. Both allow 77+ points in conference play and for the season these defenses each rank outside the top 260 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. In their first meeting less than a month ago, they combined to score 187 points in an up tempo game with 72 possessions. The Mavericks hit their conference average in PPP (efficiency) in that game while St Thomas played well below their PPP average. Both offenses are by far the best units on the court here and we expect each to get to 80 points minimum. Over.

#785/786 ASA PLAY ON Over 151.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs South Dakota State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Summit League are facing off here in what should be a high scoring game. Omaha and SDSU both average 84 PPG in league play. UNO has scored at least 77 points in all 11 of their conference games and South Dakota State has reached at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 conference games. The Jackrabbits have actually topped 100 points twice in Summit League play and they’ve been an offensive juggernaut at home averaging 90 PPG. In their home games in league play, SDSU has not been held under 84 points and they’ve scored at least 90 in 4 of their 5 at home. They should have plenty of offensive success here vs an Omaha defense that ranks 318th in eFG% allowed. SDSU’s defensive numbers are decent, but they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. Both teams shoot the 3 very well (#1 and #4 in conference play) and both like to play up tempo. In their first meeting Omaha picked up the 87-80 win for an easy Over. In that win, the Mavericks hit their conference season average in PPP (efficiency) and South Dakota State actually played below their offensive efficiency average and these 2 still nearly got to 170 total points. Four of the last five meetings between these 2 rivals have reached at least 152 points with 3 of those games topping 160. This one should be a track meet and we’ll take the Over.

ASA play on OVER 218 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8pm ET - This line is extremely light in our opinion, and we will gladly step in with an OVER wager. The Thunder are going to get to 120+ by themselves in this game so we need the Heat to top 100. Granted, the Heat managed just 86 and 85 points in their last two games, but Herro and Jaquez missed their last game against the Celtics. Those two players were out with an illness, so I’d expect both back for this game. OKC is coming off a remarkable shooting night against the Pelicans where they made 49/95 FG’s overall and 27/55 3PT’ers in scoring 137 points. The last 11 games involving the Thunder have finished with 221+ points. 16 of their last seventeen games have finished with 220 or more points. OKC has the 6th best Offensive Net rating in the league and rank 4th in scoring at 118.2ppg for the season. In their last 11 games the Thunder are averaging 125.8ppg. Miami ranks 11th in Defensive Net rating for the season but have slipped dramatically in their last 10 games, falling to 18th. The Heat were dealing with a ton of distractions with the Jimmy Butler saga and can now move on with their current roster which now includes Andrew Wiggins. Miami is 6th in the NBA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. Even though the Thunder defend the 3PT line well we expect the Heat to make enough shots to help push this game OVER the total.

#687/688 ASA PLAY ON Over 155.5 Points - IPFW vs Youngstown St, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - The 2 fastest paced teams in the Horizon face off here in what we expect will be a high scoring game. They met back in January and totaled 171 total points on a whopping 80 possessions. Looking closely at that box score, both offenses actually played below their Horizon League averages when it comes to efficiency (PPP) and they both made only 61% of their FT’s in that game and it still was very high scoring. IPFW is the best overall offense in the conference ranking #1 in scoring (83 PPG) and #1 in eFG%. They also rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the conference) so very few wasted possessions. Youngstown is 4th in the league in scoring (76 PPG) but they’ve stepped that up a notch over the last 3 weeks or so scoring 87, 84, 79, 88, and 112 points in their last 5 games. The Penguins have topped their offensive efficiency average numbers (PPP) in each of those 5 games. That should continue tonight vs an IPFW defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% allowed and 234th in defensive efficiency. The last 4 meetings between these Horizon League foes have averaged 165.5 total points with each going Over the total. Let’s call for another one tonight.

ASA play on OVER 234.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Will we see Luka tonight for the Lakers? We expect LeBron James to be back after a “rest” or off game against the Pacers on Saturday. The Lakers offense is clicking right now with scoring outputs of 134, 128, 122, 120 and 124 in their last 5 games. In their 5-game period the Lakers have the 2nd best Offensive Net rating of 125.9 and an EFG% of 63.2%. Another important factor here is that the Lakers are playing at a faster rate in recent games with their small-ball lineups. L.A. should have no problem getting to 130 in this game against a Jazz defense that is last in the league in Net rating at 118.4. In their last 3 games the Jazz have allowed 128, 135 and 130 points against the Warriors, Suns and Clippers. Utah has given up 125+ points in 6 of their last nine games. Utah is 22nd in Offensive Net rating for the season but are on an uptick in their last 5-games ranking 16th. The Lakers did NOT improve their defense in the trade for Luka as AD was their best defender. The Lakers rank 18th in DNR at 113.8 for the season. When these two teams last met in Los Angeles they produced 242 total points and the Over has cashed in 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams.

ASA PLAY ON Under 49 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams want to run the ball in this game which eats clock and shortens the game. We know the Eagles run it more than any other team in the NFL (#1 in carries per game) and they rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts per game. They are averaging 228 YPG rushing in the playoffs and facing a KC defense that has been on a drastic decline late in the season stopping the run. They’ve allowed an average of 133 YPG rushing over their last 7 games despite playing only 1 team during that stretch that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. The Chiefs offense ran it 35 times last week vs Buffalo and we expect them to attack the weaker part of Philly’s D which is their run defense (although still very good). The Eagles pass D ranks #1 in the NFL and they allow very few big play with just 7.6% of WR’s targets going for more than 20 yards, by far the best in the NFL. So even when passing, this looks like a dink and dunk game for the Chiefs. The strength of both teams is on the defensive side of the ball with both ranking in the top 10 in YPP & YPG allowed while ranking in the top 5 in PPG allowed. The Eagle defense has allowed just 1 team to reach 24+ points since October 1st and the KC defense has allowed only 5 teams to top 24 points in 19 games this season. Both rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace (seconds per play) and both are coming off very high scoring games which gives us some value on the Under here. 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone Under and we don’t think this one will be a shootout. Under is the call.

ASA play on OVER 228 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 2 pm ET - No Giannis for this game which is clearly going to hurt the Bucks defense. Milwaukee just played in Atlanta the other night and were Jekyll and Hyde in the two halves of the game. In the 1st half they looked unstoppable offensively with 73 total points. In the second half they couldn’t buy a bucket and managed just 37 total points. We like the tempo or pace of play in that game though as they Bucks attempted 96 field goals. Without Giannis in the lineup, who stops the ball offensively, the Bucks should play fast again today versus the 76ers. Milwaukee is the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48%, the 76ers rank 30th in FG% defense allowing 48.8%. The Bucks are also the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 38.7%, the Sixers rank 24th in 3PT% defense. The 76ers should have their “big 3” on the floor today with Embiid, George and Maxey. Philly is coming off a brutal loss in Detroit, trailing by as many as 34-points in that one. On the season the 76ers don’t have great offensive statistics but in their last 10 games they rank 10th in Offensive Net ratings. Defensively they rank 23rd overall in DNR. In the first two meetings between these two teams, they produced 232 and 233 total points and that was without Paul George and Joel Embiid on the floor for Philadelphia. Granted, no Giannis for Milwaukee but that just means a higher volume of 3’s for the Buck. 76ers 4-1 Over their last 5, Bucks 5-1 Over their last six at home.

#727/728 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Rhode Island vs George Mason, Saturday at 4 PM ET - URI loves to play at a fast tempo but that won’t happen here as George Mason (ranked 312th in adjusted tempo) will keep this game at a slower pace. That’s what happened in the first meeting when URI won the game 62-59 on only 65 possessions which is nearly 10 possessions less than the Rams season average. Along with that slow pace, George Mason’s defense is one of the best in the nation ranking 10th in efficiency and allowing just 61 PPG. At home the Patriots allow only 59 PPG and in A10 play they have held 6 of their 10 opponents to 60 points or less. URI’s defense is OK (9th in the A10 in efficiency) but they match up well with a GM offense that simply isn’t very good ranking 14th out of 15 in the conference in scoring. These 2 offenses rank 13th and 14th in efficiency in the 15 team A10. They don’t take many 3’s (242nd and 307th nationally in 3 point attempts per game) and when they do they only make around 32% in conference play which isn’t great. George Mason’s defense should shut down URI again in this 2nd match up and in the first game the Patriots shot 45% which is above their season average and they still only had 59 points. George Mason has had only 1 game in conference play get into the 140’s in regulation and with today’s total set in the high 130’s, we like the value on the Under.

ASA play on OVER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 pm ET - Clearly the Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers was the most significant in the NBA, but the Spurs addition of Fox was a fantastic move by San Antonio. Not only is Fox a great offensive point guard to pair with Wemby, he’s also very good defensively, and fits the Spurs perfectly. San Antonio talked about picking up their tempo with the addition of Fox and that clearly played out in his first game as the Spurs attempted 101 field goals. That was 12 more FGA’s than their season average. San Antonio shot 50% for the game against the Hawks and put up 126-points. The Spurs should put up points against this Charlotte defense that has slipped in Defensive Net rating in their last 5 games. The Hornets have a DNR of 116 in their last 5 games, up from their season number of 113.3. San Antonio is 2nd in pace of play over their last 5 games with a top 15 Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games. Charlotte was very active at the trade deadline and clearly made moves in an effort to rebuild in the future. They should get LaMelo Ball back for tonight’s game who is averaging 28ppg for the season. The Spurs defense has allowed 125 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Both teams like to shoot a lot of 3-pointers so even if the overall FGA’s are down we still have a great chance to cash the Over based on 3-point volume. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play on OVER 223 Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, 6 PM ET - The 76ers have found their groove in recent weeks with 5-straight covers and several impressive wins including a victory against the Cavs, Lakers and Kings. The offense has been much better with 132, 109, 118, 117 and 134 points scored in their last four games. Philadelphia has the 4th best EFG% over the last 5-games played and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in that span of games. The Sixers defense has been the worst in the NBA over the past 10 games with a Net Rating of 121.7. Games involving this Philly team have finished with 220+ points in 7 of the last ten. Boston is going to score points today with an offense that is 3rd overall in Net Rating for the season and putting up the 5th most points per game at 117.3ppg. Boston games have finished with 223 or more points in 7 of their last eight games. Boston’s 8th best EFG% at 55.5% should find plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is last in the NBA in opponents FG% allowed. We expect this game to get into the 230’s.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Over 158 Points – IPFW vs UW Milwaukee, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 faced off in early January, the total was set at 155, they totaled 151 (IPFW won 78-73) yet this total is set higher despite the first game going Under. That’s because taking a closer look at the first meeting reveals that game should have go Over the total. First of all, these 2 play fast (2 of the top 3 in tempo in the Horizon) and they had 78 possessions in the first meeting. Plenty of opportunities for scoring in that game and this one should play out in a similar manner. Both teams shot well below their season averages and their offensive efficiency fell way under their season averages. They combined to barely shoot 40% (they shoot 48% and 47% on the year) and they made only 30% of their 3’s combined. UWM averages 1.11 PPP in Horizon League play and in that one they averaged 0.94 PPP. IPFW averages 1.14 PPP in conference play and put up 1.00 in that game. Despite all that, that game still got into the 150’s. We look for Sunday’s offensive numbers to get back to the norm which should push this game into the 160’s. The last 2 meetings in Milwaukee each of the last 2 seasons totaled 184 and 190. Take the Over in this one

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 128 Points – West Virginia vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Two of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 face off here and what should be a low scoring game. These are the 2 lowest scoring teams in Big 12 games with WVU averaging 60.7 PPG and Cincy putting up 61 PPG. They also rank in the bottom 3 in the league in both FG% and 3 point FG%. Neither get to the FT line very often (280th and 359th in percentage of points from the stripe) and we won’t see many 2nd chances as they are both very poor offensive rebounding teams (15th and 16th in league play). The strength of both teams is absolutely on the defensive end. They both rank inside the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Both defend the arc well and this should be a slow paced game with WVU ranking 331st in adjusted tempo while Cincy ranks 290th. This smells like a first team to 60 wins type game. Take the Under.

#873/874 ASA PLAY ON Under 124 Points - St Peters vs Rider, Friday at 7 PM ET - Two very slow paced teams with bad offenses lead to a really low scoring game in this one. Both rank outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo and in straight possessions per game Rider ranks 327th and St Peters 353rd. Offensively they rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency, FG%, and scoring (347th and 348th in scoring). In conference play only, St Peters is averaging a horrendous 0.88 PPP and Rider puts up a poor 1.03 PPP. They are the 2 worst teams in MAAC play in 3 point FG% and 3 pointers made per game. St Peters is averaging just 56 PPG in league play (dead last) and while Rider is a bit better at 68 PPG (still not very good) they are facing one of the MAAC’s top defenses tonight with the Peacocks allowing only 60 PPG. In their 3 games thus far vs top 4 conference defenses, Rider was held under 1.00 PPP twice. St Peters has failed to reach 120 total points in 4 of their last 6 games with an average total points scored of 110 in those 6 contests. Two flat out poor offenses in a game that might not get to 60 possessions lands us on the Under.

#809/810 ASA PLAY ON Over 148.5 Points – Cleveland State vs IPFW, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The 2 most efficient offenses in the Horizon League are facing off here in what we expect to be a high scoring game. IPFW ranks #1 in most of the key offensive stats in league play including scoring, FG%, 3 point FG%, and offensive efficiency. CSU ranks in the top 3 in all of those categories. IPFW is a poor defensive team ranking outside the top 270 nationally defensive efficiency and PPG allowed. Cleveland State has much better numbers on the defensive end, however they’ve faced the weakest schedule thus far in Horizon League play and only 3 of their 11 conference opponents currently rank in the top 5 in scoring. So their defensive numbers are a bit misleading in our opinion. IPFW has played 11 league games and 9 of those have reached at least 150 total points. Their games in Horizon League play average 162 total points. They are also one of the fastest paced teams in the country and #1 in adjusted tempo in the conference. In CSU’s other games vs higher tempo teams in the Horizon (Youngstown State, Robert Morris, and Milwaukee) they totaled 152, 149, and 146 total points and none of those teams are as good offensive as IPFW. The Matadors rank 59th nationally in offensive efficiency and those teams mentioned above rank 143rd or lower with 2 ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency. This one goes Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239 Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively in recent games and will have a tough time scoring tonight against this Cavs defense that is 8th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.121PPP. In their most recent 5-games the Hawks have the worst Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 95.8. Atlanta has scored less than 97 points in 3 straight games and have failed to top 110 in 6 of their last eight games. What the Hawks have done well in their last five games is play defense. Atlanta has the 2nd best Defensive Net rating in the league in that stretch of games at 97.0. Cleveland is clearly one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 1st in Offensive Efficiency at 1.218PPP. The Cavs are coming off a game in Miami last night and have several rotational players out for this game which will magnify the fatigue factor. The Under is 4-2 in this series dating back to the start of last season with only 2 of those games finished with more points than tonight’s number. We like UNDER in this one.

ASAwins play on OVER 228 Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers – 7:40 pm ET - Sacramento is averaging 120.7ppg in their last ten games, 121.3ppg in their last fifteen. The Kings have played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the 6th most efficient offense over that span of games. The Kings have scored 120 plus in 9 of their last twelve games and should have a problem getting to that number against a 76ers defense that is 29th in Defensive Net rating in their last 15 games. The Kings only managed 110 points against the Net last game out after getting off to a very slow start in the first two quarters. Sacramento played much slower than normal with 82 field goal attempts, 9.1 less than their season average of 91.1 FGA’s per game. Sacramento is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6% and should get plenty of wide-open looks against a Sixers D that ranks 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia is coming off a game last night against the Lakers with Maxey scoring 43 in their 118-104 win. The Sixers are 5-2 Over when playing without rest and 11-4-2 Over in non-Conference games this season. The Kings are in the bottom half of the league in Defensive Efficiency rating for the season allowing 1.142-points per possession so Philly should do some damage on that end of the court too. We like OVER in this one.

#691/692 ASA PLAY ON Under 123.5 Points – Houston vs West Virginia, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Houston won the game 74-50 totaling 124 points. In that game the Cougars put up 1.30 PPP which is well above their 1.22 PP average on the season and ranks as their 2nd best offensive effort (efficiency) in Big 12 play. They also shot 42% from deep in that game facing a WVU defense that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency. It will be very tough for Houston to duplicate that offensive effort. On the other side, the Mountaineers also shot over 40% from beyond the arc (they average 33%) and averaged 1.00 PPP vs a Houston defense that allowed 0.87 PPP on the season. While 1.00 PPP may not sound all that impressive, WVU has played 3 games since facing the Cougars and haven’t reached that mark in any of them (vs ISU, KSU, and ASU). We highly doubt they hit that number tonight. Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency with Houston ranking #2. Both teams are very slow paced ranking 324th and 360th in adjusted tempo and there were only 54 possessions in the first meeting. There were only total FT attempts in the first meeting and we look for a similar situation here as neither team gets to the line very often (both outside the top 315 in percentage of points from the FT line). If you combine their over/under records this season, they are 23-14-1 to the Under. This one stays very low scoring.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 LA Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30pm ET - This number has been set too low, and the value lies with the Over in this one. These defenses have been near the bottom of the league over the course of the last 15 games with the Lakers ranking 23rd in Defensive Net Rating, the 76ers are 29th. On the other end of the court, the Lakers are 10th in Offensive Net Rating over that same 15 game span, the Sixers are 15th. Those numbers suggest that this game will be slightly higher than the league average of 226 total points scored per game. The Lakers are 8th in FG% and should get plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia doesn’t have great overall offensive numbers, but we see a trend with them at home where they have a much easier time scoring. The 76ers have put up 132, 119, 102 (OKC best D in NBA), 115 and 109 in their last 5 at home. Granted, there will be some marquee names missing from this game but the oddsmakers have set a number that is off by at least 6-points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET - The Jazz are one of, if not the worst defense in the league. Utah allows 1.191-points per possession, only the Wizards allow more. The Jazz rank 26th in opponents FG%, 27th in total points allowed per game and 14.3 made 3-pointers per game (27th). Utah has allowed 123+ points in four straight, 111 or more in 7 in a row. The Bucks are going to score 125 or more in this game with an offense that is 11th in OEFF at 1.147PPP, ranks 6th in FG% and 2nd in 3PT%. Milwaukee makes the 6th most 3-pointers in the NBA at 14.3 per game. The Bucks have scored 117 or more points in 6 straight games and 122+ in five of those six. Utah is 20th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.119PPP and average 111.3ppg with 13.8 made 3-pointers per game (11th). We need Utah to get to the 112 range for this Over to hit and we expect them to get there as they’ve scored that in 5 of their last six games. Milwaukee is 10th in pace of play, the Jazz are 14th so we should get plenty of possessions to push this Over the number.

ASA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, 7:40PM ET - These two teams are playing well right now, much better than their overall records of 12-34 (Pelicans) and 13-32 (Raptors). New Orleans has won 4 of their last six games, while the Raptors have hit 5 of their last six games. You won’t find either of these teams in the upper echelon of the NBA in terms of Offensive Efficiency for the season, but you will find they have been much better in that regard recently. New Orleans is 14th in OEFF in their last five games, the Raptors are 18th. Both of these teams are averaging better than 1.141-points per possession in that five-game span. The other big factor in this Over wager is the pace of play by each team. The Raptors are 9th in pace on the season and are played at a faster tempo in their most recent five games. The Pelicans are 15th in pace for the year, but currently the 4th fastest paced in the league over the last five games. A big reason for both teams resurgence is their overall team health as both have gotten key players back from injury. Games involving the Pelicans have gone over this number in 7 of the last eight games. Toronto is 13-10 to the Over at home this season with those games averaging 228 total points. With two of the worst defenses in the NBA squaring off we expect a ton of points in this one.

ASA play on OVER 242 New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - This is an extremely high number, but we do expect both teams to get into the mid-120’s and push this game Over the total. These two teams met in late December and combined for 256 total points so we know they can get there. New Orleans is getting some players back and it’s starting to show in their results as they’ve won 4 in a row and 5 of six. They have scored 119 or more points in 6 straight games. A closer look at those last six games we find the Pelicans are playing fast with the 6th highest possession rate in the league. They have been more efficient also with the 6th best offensive rating. Memphis has been playing equally as well with 4 straight wins and 5 of six. The Grizzlies put up points on everyone. Memphis has scored 118 or more in 5 of the last six games and is currently the highest scoring team in the NBA at 123.3ppg. On the season the Grizz are 5th in FG%, 2nd in FG attempts and 8th in 3PT%. Memphis is 5th in offensive rating and EFG% and play at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.91 possessions per game. With both teams willing to play fast, unless both shoot horribly this game should go over rather easily.

ASA play on UNDER 230.5 Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs 2 pm ET (Played in Paris France) - This is a specialty gimmick game by the NBA to broaden its reach in Europe and is being played in Paris, France. So essentially a home game for Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs. This is an interesting situation for both teams with the extended travel and we don’t feel it’s going to help with their offensive efficiency. We ran the season statistics through our math model and it projected 226.3 total points being scored. When we run the numbers in the last five games for each team it settles in at 225.4 total points. The Spurs recently played a 2-game set with the Grizzlies (4th fastest) and had a game against the Bucks who rank 8th in pace of play. Even with those games factored into the equation we still come up with a lower number than the oddsmakers. The Pacers were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago at 101.7 possessions per game, this season they are 10th at 99.4. The Spurs are 18th in pace this season and offensive efficiency rating while scoring just 111.6ppg. Indiana is top 10 in offensive efficiency and scoring 115.2ppg. In this environment we don't see these two teams combining for more than 225 total points.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm et - We have a solid recent comparable game for the 76ers in this situation as they just played in Milwaukee on Sunday with the game going Over 226.5 in that game. That game played out as projections suggested in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency and pace of play. Tonight, the 76ers face a Nuggets team that is better offensively than the Bucks, plays faster and is worse defensively and the O/U is only 3-points higher. The Nuggets are average in terms of Defensive Efficiency ranking 14th at 1.138-points per possession allowed. The 76ers are 20th giving up 1.146PPP. Philadelphia is the slowest paced team in the league but the Nuggets will force them to play faster with their 5th fastest pace in the NBA. The 76ers have allowed 115 or more points in 5 of their last six games with the Over cashing in four of those six. Denver has scored 118+ in 5 of their last nine games and the four that they didn’t reach that number came against defenses ranked 12th or better, which is not the case with Philadelphia. The Sixers have injury concerns tonight with Embiid out and several starters including Paul George questionable but we still like them to get to 110+ in this game. Denver averages 120ppg at home so we expect them to get to that number here too. When these two teams have played out of Conference this season, they have a combined 22-6-2 OVER record.

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - This is a fill in game and both teams are in a tough scheduling situation having played last night. The Clippers beat their intown rivals the Lakers 116-102, the Bulls lost in Portland 102-113. Chicago has seen inflated O/U numbers in recent weeks which has given value to the Under bettors out there paying attention. The Bulls have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight games now and have played at a slower pace, been better defensively and worse offensively. Most important is the Bulls pace of play which has dipped, and their defensive efficiency has gone from 1.163PPP to 1.144PPP. The Clippers hired Jeff VanGundy in the offseason and their defense has steadily improved throughout the season. LA currently allows 1.081PPP which is second in the NBA only behind OKC. It’s a good thing their defense has been that good because they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Clippers have stayed Under their total in 6 of their last nine games and only two of their last ten games have finished with more than 227 total points. The last time these two teams met on this floor they produced 214 total points. We expect another game in that range today.

ASA play on OVER 219.5 San Antonio at Miami Heat, 3:10 PM ET - The total on this game opened 222, was bet down below 220, but is not trending back up. The betting indicators are telling us this line could go higher yet so we recommend a wager sooner than later. In breaking down the Offensive and Defensive efficiencies for both teams along with pace of play we find the numbers suggest an ‘average’ game in the NBA. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226 total points. Miami is dealing with the Jimmy Butler distraction, and it showed defensively in their last game when they allowed 133 points to Denver. San Antonio is coming off a two-game set against the Grizzlies where they allowed 129 and 140 points. The last seven games involving the Spurs has finished with more total points than this number. Miami has been known for their defense for years under coach Spoelstra but this season they are hovering just above league average in most key categories. They are 12th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. The Spurs are 11th in opponents FG%, 9th in 3PT% allowed but give up the 14th most points per game at 112.7ppg.

#3/4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets vs San Jose Sharks, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Very interesting match-up here as San Jose is having a rough season yet they just won 6-3 at Detroit to snap the Red Wings 7-game winning streak. Ironically the Sharks now have a chance in their very next game to stop the current longest winning streak in the NHL as well and that is the 5-game run that the Blue Jackets are on. While we do expect the confidence to be up for the Sharks after that 6-goal outburst and we look for continued offensive success here, we also expect the Blue Jackets to stay hot. Columbus has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 6-1 run last 7 games. The Blue Jackets, as hot as they have been, have allowed 3 goals per game in their last 4 on home ice and they enter this game in a unique situation. Columbus is off B2B unders that each totaled 5 or less goals. Keep in mind, the season is already halfway over and the Blue Jackets have NEVER had a 3-game stretch this season without at least 1 game totaling 7 goals or more. In fact, Columbus home games have averaged 7.4 goals this season! We get value here because the Sharks trend toward lower-scoring games but this is a unique spot with San Jose off a 6-3 win and a chance to again snap the winning streak of the current hottest team in the NHL. San Jose goalie Georgiev has a 3.44 GAA this season and Columbus goalie Merzlikins has allowed 3.5 goals per start in his last 10 starts. Both of these clubs have had problems on the penalty kill this season too and the Blue Jackets power play has been solid. The goals fly here! Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play Thursday in Columbus

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#839/840 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points – Michigan State vs Northwestern, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Both of these teams have highly efficient defenses with MSU ranking 10th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.92 PPP and Northwestern ranks 27th giving up 0.96 PPP. Both allow just 66 PPG on the season and NW is far better defensively at home allowing 61 PPG compared to 72 PPG on the road. The Cats have played 1 Big 10 home game this season vs the highly efficient Illinois offense (27th in offensive efficiency) and that game was tied 56-56 at the end of regulation, went to OT and they still only got to 137 total points. Illinois has very similar efficiency numbers, offense & defense, to Michigan State today’s opponents. The Spartans defense has allowed 62 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 Big 10 games this season. NW is a very slow paced team and we expect them to control the tempo at home on Sunday. They do not want to get into a shootout with Michigan State. Offensively, neither team shoots many 3’s (both outside the top 320 in percentage of points scored from deep) and neither is great at hitting them when they do shoot them (MSU 339th in 3 point FG% & NW 215th). This game will mainly be played inside the arc which always helps the Under. Lastly, both are very good defensive rebounding teams which should limit extra opportunities for each. Only 3 of the last 13 meetings between these 2 Big 10 rivals have topped 140 total points and with the current total (as of Saturday) sitting in the high 130’s, we like the Under.

#377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 46 and has dropped to a current number of 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. We’re now getting some solid value on the Over in this game and we’ll grab it. These 2 rivals met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 48.5 and 44 so we’re now getting the lowest total of the season in this series. In the first game the final score was 18-16 in favor of Pittsburgh but the Steelers kicked 6 FG’s (0 TD’s) and they pushed inside the Baltimore 15 yard line on 3 of those drives. The Ravens put up 6.1 YPP and missed 2 FG’s. They were inside the Pittsburgh 35 yard line 5 times in that game and came away with only 16 points. That game could have and should have been much higher scoring. In the 2nd meeting, the Ravens again put up really solid YPP numbers (6.7 YPP) and scored 34 points. The Pittsburgh offense put up decent numbers averaging 5.2 YPP but only scored 17 points in the game. They were shut out on downs inside Baltimore territory and fumbled at the Ravens 4 yard line so again, the opportunity for more points was there and they still reached 51 total points. Baltimore is 3rd in the NFL averaging 30.5 PPG and at home that jumps to 31.5 PPG. Pittsburgh has been a higher scoring team away from home at 23.1 PPG compared to at home where they average 21.5 PPG. The Steelers also average 5.1 YPP on the road which is higher than their home numbers. The Ravens put up an impressive 6.7 YPP at home which is by far the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 8 home games (including 34 vs Pittsburgh) and if they get to that number, we would need much for Pittsburgh for this to go over. The Steelers have struggled offensively over the last few games but we anticipate they throw caution to the wind here and open up the offense. They know they need to score some points to have a chance in this one because shutting down Baltimore’s offense is a tall task. The weather looks decent with temps in the mid 30’s at game time and 10 MPH winds (no precipitation). This total is too low and we like the Over.

ASA NBA PLAY UNDER 221 Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Mavs will be without Luka and Kyrie again tonight which greatly diminishes their scoring numbers. For the entire season the Mavs have the 6th best offensive net rating in the NBA at 115.6. In their last 7 games without Luka Doncic, they fall to 24th in ONR and now they don’t have Kyrie Irving and his 24ppg to rely on. Dallas did score 118 last time out against the Lakers but the Mavs shot well above season standards, making 45 of 86 field goal attempts or 52%. They also hit 18/38 3PT’s or 47%. Portland is coming off a game in New Orleans last night, a 119-100 win. The Blazers also had an extremely hot shooting night of 55% overall and 36% from Deep. Those numbers were much higher than their season averages of 45.1% and 33.7%. Don’t expect those statistics again tonight against a Mavs team that holds opponents to the 9th lowest FG% in the NBA. The Blazers defense is bottom 10 in terms of defensive net rating for the season, but in their last four games they’ve been much better, ranking 10th. With Luka in the lineup the Mavs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season. Without him on the floor they are average in tempo. The Blazers prefer to play slower overall for the season and have slowed even more in their last five games. These two teams met on Dec 28th and the O/U number was 225. They combined to score 248. Why have the oddsmakers established a much lower number for this game after that game was so high scoring? That has us on Under here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games. Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those games the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games. While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th. We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th. Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Memphis wants to play fast and is the highest possession team in the NBA. Phoenix on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking 26th in pace of play. The current problem for the Grizzlies is they have 9 players on their injured list, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, three of their top six scorers. The lack of depth showed in the Grizzlies last game against the Thunder as they managed just 106 points on 38% shooting. The Suns have had their own scoring issues of late with four straight games of 110 or less points. The lack of scoring has led to 4 straight Unders for the Suns and 6 of the last seven. Not to mention, the Suns will have a tough time here against a Memphis defense that allows the 4th fewest points per possession in the NBA. In three meetings last season these two teams produced 236, 225 and 199 total points. We like a slower paced and lower scoring game here.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 225.8 total points per game. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will only be essentially +6-points more than average. We feel it’s going to be much higher than that for a few specific reasons, mainly because of the pace of play. Memphis is the fastest paced team in the league at 105.2 possessions per game. The Thunder at 8th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. The Grizzlies average the 3rd most fastbreak points per game, the Thunder rank 9th. Memphis is the highest scoring team in the NBA in terms of points in the paint, the Thunder are 12th. The Grizz are the 5th most efficient offense, the Thunder are 8th. Granted, both are exceptional defensively, but pace and great shooting will counter the great defenses. These two teams attempt the 10th and 12th most 3-pointers per game and rank 2nd and 3rd in FG attempts. Based on comparable opponents, the betting markets and tempo we expect a higher scoring game Sunday. *Yes, we know Ja Morant is not playing tonight.*

ASA NBA play on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number. Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg. Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games. Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest. These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#59/60 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals - Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Ducks are starting John Gibson in goal. He is 1-4 in his last 5 starts and has allowed at least 3 goals in each of those five games! Anaheim is off a 5-4 win at Utah in the shootout last night.  The Ducks have allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 games.  Anaheim will struggle again in that department here as the Golden Knights have been red hot.  The Ducks also should score well here however as they have now won 5 of 8 road games and have averaged 3 goals scored in that 8-game stretch away from home. Vegas has won 11 of 14 games and has averaged 3.5 goals scored in going 6-1 last 7 games.  Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals per game in the last 4 games against divisional opponents and they'll be ready for the Ducks here.  What we like about Anaheim is the way they have turned things around, particularly on the road, and their goal-scoring ways continue here.  But Gibson's struggles in goal continue and Vegas (huge favorites in this game) are going to build off their 6-2 win versus Seattle as they have won 4 straight at home and 7 of 8 overall and stay hot here.  Both teams struggle on the penalty kill and the Golden Knights also have a potent power play.  The goals fly here!  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Monday in Vegas

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 42.5 Points - New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - It is going to be extremely cold in Lambeau Monday night and we don’t see these teams putting up a ton of points. The Saints will start rookie QB Rattler who has had some ups-and-downs this season. Last week against the Commanders he was 10/21 for 135 yards and a TD. NO’s offense is averaging just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games and have scored 14, 14, and 19 points in those games against defense’s worse than Green Bay’s. The Packer’s defense is 10th in YPPL allowed at 5.5 on the season, 9th against the run and 15th versus the pass. GB gives up the 8th fewest points per game in the NFL at 20.5. Green Bay has allowed 19 or less points in 4 of their last five games, the exception being the Lions who have one of the best O’s in the league. Green Bay will want to run the football here with their 5th best rushing O that attempts 30.7 rushes per game, 6th most. The Saints defense has been good in recent weeks allowing just 4.8YPPL which is significantly lower than their season average of 5.8YPPL allowed. New Orleans’s D has held their last 5 opponents to 21 or less points, three of which scored 17 or less.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 143 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Tennessee, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tennessee is #1 nationally in eFG% defense and #2 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing just 55 PPG this season and they really make teams work on the offensive end allowing a shot attempt every 19 seconds (4th in the country). They have held a number of high level offenses to low point totals this year including limiting Baylor (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points, Illinois (37th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 64 points, Louisville (55th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 55 points, and Miami FL (38th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points. The Vols have held almost half their opponents (5) to less than 60 points and limited 2 of their opponents to less than 40 points. MTSU is not a good 3 point shooting team (31%) and they don’t attempt many from deep. They should be drastically limited from beyond the arc here vs a Tennessee defense that ranks #1 nationally in guarding the arc allowing only 24%. On the other end of the court, the Blue Raiders have done a great job defensively limiting opponents to just 5 made 3 pointers per game and holding them to 27% from deep (5th nationally). The majority of points in this game should come from inside the arc which always helps the Under. We wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU fails to top 55 points in this game which would mean Tennessee would need to get to almost 90 for this one to go Over. 6 of Tennessee’s last 7 games have failed to top 141 points and we think this one sticks in the mid to upper 130’s. Under is our play here.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - At first glance, this looks like a square bet but there are several factors that have us on this Over. The Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the NFL running a play every 26.7 seconds. Running more plays makes up for the Cowboys lack of explosiveness with an offense that average just 5.0 yards per play on the season. In their three most recent games the Dallas offense has been better at 5.3YPP while averaging 1-point scored for every 15.4 yards gained. After a slow start at QB, Cooper Rush has guided the Cowboys offense to 34, 27, 20 and 30-points in their last four games. Dallas should get plenty of opportunities offensively against this Bucs defense that is 27th in total yards per game allowed, 21st in YPP allowed at 5.8, 22nd in stopping the run and 30th against the pass. Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield under center has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in every game but one this season and average 28.8ppg which is 4th most in the league. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total YPG, 3rd in YPP, 4th in rushing and 4th in passing yards per game. The Dallas defense has regressed this season ranking 26th in total YPG allowed, 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1, 29th against the run and 21st against the pass. This game shapes up to be a shootout.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 45.5 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Second season meetings within the division have trended towards the Under in recent years and this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair. When these teams met earlier this season in Philly they combined for 44 total points and stayed below the set number of 49. The Commanders managed just 264 total yards 4.3 yards per play. Philadelphia ran it for 228 yards and passed for another 206 at 6.3YPP. Washington is averaging 5.8YPP for the season but have dropped to 5.5YPP in their last three games. The Commanders have faced just two top 10 defenses this season out of their 14 games. In those two games against Pittsburgh and Philly they averaged less than 4.4YPP overall. Philadelphia is very content to play ball-control offense and grind out wins, just as they did last week against the Steelers. Philly has stayed Under in 5 of their last six games as a result. The Eagles average 5.7YPP on the season but that number dips to 5.1 in their last three games. Philadelphia’s defense gets our 3rd overall grading and is the best defense in terms of yards per play allowed at 4.7. The Eagles allow the fewest points in the NFL this season at 17.6. with both teams rating in the bottom half of the league in pace of play we expect a low scoring game here.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.

#201/202 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Western Kentucky vs James Madison, Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Western Kentucky has multiple players in the transfer portal including 10 starters. Some of these players will play and some won’t. Starting QB Veltkamp will transfer but he is going to play in this game. However, even with Veltkamp playing down the stretch of the regular season, the Hilltopper offense fell off a cliff. The last 4 games of the season this offense scored 7, 21, 19 and 12 points. Veltkamp had only 4 TD’s during that stretch with 3 interceptions with WKU averaging just 309 YPG. Now this offense, which will most likely be shorthanded, faced a JMU defense that ranks 25th in total defense and 16th in YPP allowed. The Hilltoppers only faced 3 defenses this season that ended the year ranked in the top 50 in total defense and they averaged 12.6 PPG in those games. While we think James Madison’s defense will be tough to crack here, the Dukes offense will struggle. They will be starting their 3rd string QB Billy Atkins in this game who has thrown 1 pass the entire season. In his 4 year career at JMU, Atkins has completed only 29 passes and his career completion percentage is just 49%. We look for the James Madison offense to rely heavily on the run here (28th in the country in carries per game) which should shorten this game eating clock. The WKU defense ranks 11th nationally vs the pass so the obvious game plan for the Dukes is ground and pound. The Hilltopper didn’t have great total defense numbers but they were very good at keep teams off the scoreboard. They held 10 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. The weather doesn’t look great in Boca Raton with rain and 10+ MPH winds expected. Take the Under here.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time. They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9. During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue. Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina. Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season. Not one. In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock. They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second. Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives. We like this one to stay Under the total.

ASA NBA play on Over 231 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40 PM ET - When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season. The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses in the Heat and Magic and will now take advantage of a Jazz defense that isn’t good. Utah is 29th out of 30 teams in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.199-points per possession. Utah has allowed 133 and 141 in two of their last three games. The Jazz offense has struggled at times but should put up points in this game too against a Suns defense that has holes. Phoenix started the season playing well defensively but have now slipped to 21st in DEFF. The Suns have allowed 121 or more points in two of their last 3 games. With the history of high scoring games between these two teams we like another one on Friday night.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10PM ET - We expect the Kings to put up points in this one and essentially force the Pelicans to score to keep up. Sacramento is 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season at 1.115-points per possession. They have been better of late at 1.203PPP in their last five games. The Kings are coming off a pair of 140+ scoring games against the Jazz and Spurs who both rate similarly to this Pels team defensively. Sacto is the 7th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.6% and should get plenty of easy looks against this Pelicans defense that allows 48.6% shooting by opponents which ranks 28th. New Orleans is 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.186PPP. They have given up 121+ points in 3 of their last four games and 118+ in 8 of their last ten overall. The Pels also rank 23rd in 2PT% against and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. On the rare occasion the Kings do miss they should get second chance opportunities with their 12th best rebound rate in the league. We are going to need points from the Pelicans also and we expect them to get 113+. The Kings are 14th in DEFF and can be exploited defensively from beyond the arc. Sacramento allows foes to hit 37.7% from Deep which ranks 27th in the NBA. New Orleans has some horrible offensive numbers, but they’ve also had significant injury issues to their leading scorers all season long. In their 3 most recent games they put up 126 against the Suns and 116 versus the Spurs and 109 against the Thunder who have the best D in the NBA. The numbers suggest that these two teams combine for 235+ in this one.

ASA NBA Play on UNDER 222.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 226.2 total points. This line is slightly lower than that despite the fact we have two elite defenses and two average offenses. Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing just 1.056 points per possession. They rank 2nd in FG% against at 43.3% and rank 5th in 3PT% allowed at 34.1%. The Warriors are 5th in DEFF allowing 1.083PPP, hold opponents to 43.8% shooting (3rd) and limit foes 3PT% at 33.4% (3rd). Offensively the Warriors are 15th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring 1.130-points per possession, the Rockets are 18th in OEFF at 1.125PPP. These two teams are top 11 in pace of play on the season, but in their 5 most recent games both teams have slowed their tempo considerably with the Warriors ranking 15th in pace, the Rockets are 24th. Both teams rely on their transition offense, but both excel in limiting fastbreak scoring, ranking 2nd and 3rd in transition points allowed. Both teams are trending down in field goal attempts in their last five games so with that trend continuing here we can’t see these two teams getting to 223 total points. Unless both shoot well above their season standards which is unlikely given the defense.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET - These two teams have one common denominator and that's that both defenses aren’t good. The Spurs allow opponents to hit 46.8% of their field goal attempts (19th) and give up 1.145-points per possession (18th). In their most recent 5 games the Spurs defense has been even worse, allowing 1.253PPP which is 2nd most in the NBA. For the season the Pelicans defense has been equally as bad as the Spurs, if not worse. New Orleans has the worst FG% defense in the league allowing 48.7% while giving up 1.186-points per possession. In their most recent 5 games the Pels are allowing an average of 121PPG. The Pelicans have below average offensive numbers but have more injured starter minutes lost than any other team in the NBA. They put up 126 against the Suns two games ago with 4/5 starters back in the lineup. Last night they scored 109 against a very good OKC defense. San Antonio is near league average or slightly below in most offensive categories. For this game to get to 226 we need ‘average’ from both teams as the league average of points scored in an NBA game is 226. With two below average defenses these teams should get to this number rather easily.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46.5 Points - Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are going back to the well on the Bucs Over the total this week after narrowly winning last Sunday. Carolina/Tampa Bay put up 49 points last week, but it took OT to get there. In all reality that game could have been much higher as TB left a lot of points off the board. The Bucks racked up 445 total yards of offense but settled for four field goals. Carolina averaged a respectable 5.4 yards per play and put up 23 points but also missed a pair of field goals. The Raiders offense has been suspect in recent games, failing to top 20 points in three straight weeks. Las Vegas has averaged 5.7 yards per play in their last three games and put up a huge YPP number last game of 6.9 against a very good KC defense. LV missed 3 FG’s against the Chiefs, had one turnover on downs at the KC 31 and then fumbled late in the game on the Chiefs 32. Clearly the Raiders could have easily put up 27 or more points in that game with a few breaks. Las Vegas will face a Bucs defense that is not very good, allowing 26ppg, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush. The Raiders have a solid defense this season, but Tampa Bay with Mayfield is 5th in YPP offense at 6.2, 6th in total YPG, 4th in yards per rush and put up 28ppg, 5th most in the NFL. Last week the Panthers played very deliberately on offense but that won’t be the case this week as the Raiders can let everything hang out in this game with nothing left to play for. This turns into a shootout with both teams putting up points.

ASA NFL play on UNDER 42 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, 8:15 PM ET - There is a lot of noise surrounding the Denver Broncos, rookie QB Bo Nix and their surprising 7-5 start but we are not as impressed as others. Nix/Denver has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season and his overall numbers are inflated as a result. In fact, Denver ranks 23rd in passing yards per game and 21st in yards per play at 5.1 despite the soft schedule. Cleveland is going to pressure Nix with the 4th best sack percentage in the league at 9.04%. The Browns pass defense around league average in terms of yards per game allowed at 214.4. Cleveland gives up 5.7YPP on the season but have also faced 5 opponents in their last seven games that rank top 10 in YPP offense. Denver is clearly not one of those teams. The Broncos defense allows the second fewest YPP on the season at 4.7, rank 4th in yards per point allowed and give up just 16.8ppg (2nd). The Browns offense is one of the worst in the NFL averaging 16.9ppg (31st) and it takes 17.3 yards gained per point, also second to last in the league. This is a very low O/U number but we don’t expect this game to get into the 40’s.

ASA NBA play on OVER 219 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 4th game in 6 days. Minnesota has been at home and should be rested with their last game being played on Nov 29th. This O/U opened 225.5 and has moved down significantly, which means we will step in and grab the value with an Over wager. Minnesota recently played the Kings at home and that game finished with 219 total points. The Kings are better defensively than the Lakers but worse offensively and the two teams play at the same pace. The Wolves are coming off a very low scoring game against the Clippers who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and play slow. We expect the Wolves to push the pace here against the Lakers coming off a game last night. L.A. is 7th in offensive efficiency this season at 1.162-points per possession. Minnesota is 17th in OEFF or near league average. Minnesota has gone from being the best defense in the NBA a year ago to ranking 10th in DEFF currently this season. The Lakers are near the bottom of the league in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.173PPP. The Lakers are 12-5-1 to the Over when playing without rest, the Wolves tend to play Over against other Western Conference teams. NBA games are averaging nearly 226ppg so we just need this game to be average for a winning ticket.

ASA play on UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season (hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant coach) as they allow the 4th fewest points per possession in the league. L.A. has held 6 of their last seven opponents to less than 100 points, which is unheard of in today’s NBA. Denver’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and recently gave up 145 to the Knicks which caused a meltdown with head coach Malone who publicly criticized his team’s effort. The Nuggets responded in their next game by holding the Jazz to 103 points. These two teams met earlier this season and produced 213 total points. They have not scored more than this O/U number in 5 straight meetings and 8 of their last nine. Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday and with 2-4 days rest dating back to last season they are 19-7 Under with those games staying below the number by an average of 8ppg. When these two teams play a conference opponent the Under is 102-57-2 since the start of last season. Bet Under!

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Carolina vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4 PM ET - TB ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 28 PPG on the season. Carolina’s overall offensive numbers are shaky, which is why this total is set lower than in should be in our opinion, but the Panthers have played much better on that side of the ball as of late. They have scored 23, 20, and 27 points over the last 3 weeks. Their most recent offensive output was 27 points vs a KC defense that ranks 8th in the NFL allowing only 19 PPG. Since Carolina gave QB Bryce Young his starting job back, he’s played well with his 2 highest QB rating games coming the last 2 weeks. His resurgence should continue vs a TB defense that ranks 29th in total defense. Carolina’s defense ranks one spot lower at 30th so no reason to believe the Bucs offense won’t have their way as well. Not only that, the Panthers defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 31 PPG on 2.75 points per possession which is also worst in the league. The Tampa defense has allowed at least 27 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the only team they really “shut down” offensively over that stretch was the NYG who were relegated to their 3rd string QB for the game. Six of Carolina’s last eight opponents have scored at least 28 points. The weather looks great in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the 50’s and light winds. These 2 have combined to play 22 games this season and 15 have gone Over the total. Both teams have offensive success on Sunday and this goes Over the posted total.

ASA NBA play on: OVER 229.5 Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There isn’t a team in the NBA that allows more points than the Washington Wizards at 123.1ppg give up per game. They are a bottom ten team in most key defensive categories including field goal percentage, attempts, attempts made, 3PT% etc…etc…. The Wizard have allowed 120 plus points in 7 of their last ten games including 121 on Wednesday to a Clippers team that averages 109ppg on the season. Milwaukee is finding their groove with a 5-game winning streak and have scored 120+ in 3 of those five games. The Bucks have recently played three similar teams to the Wizards (Chicago, Indiana and Charlotte) and those games finished with 228, 246 and 244 total points. Washington struggled offensively last time out but didn’t have Milwaukee native Jordan Poole, their leading scorer in the lineup. In three meetings a year ago, these two put up 271, 259 and 230 total points. We expect a higher scoring game in Milwaukee tonight. Bet Over.

#665/666 ASA PLAY ON Under 129 Points – Houston vs San Diego State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - In this match up in Las Vegas both defenses are the strengths of each team.  Houston and SDSU both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 30 in eFG% allowed.  Houston allows just 57 PPG and the Aztecs give up only 63 PPG.  Houston’s numbers could be much better as they’ve faced 2 of the top 3 offensive efficiency teams in the nation (Bama & Auburn) yet they still only allow 36% shooting on the season and just 30% from deep.  If you subtract their games vs 2 of the top offenses in the nation, Houston is allowing only 45 PPG.  Facing a San Diego State offense that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency and eFG%, those fantastic defensive numbers for Houston should continue.  SDSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading as well as they faced Gonzaga this season who ranks 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency.  Take out their game vs the Zags and the Aztecs are allowing only 59 PPG this season.  Not a fluke as these programs have been great defensively ranking in the top 11 last year in defensive efficiency.  Houston has an average rank of 9th in defensive efficiency over the last 5 years and SDSU also has an average rank of 9th in defensive efficiency over the last 5 years.  Both teams are slow paced (355th and 284th in adjusted tempo) so we don’t expect many possessions in this game.  Under is the call.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Nebraska vs Iowa, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The weather will be cold in Iowa City on Friday night (temps in the low 20’s at kickoff) but very light winds so the offenses should be able to use their full arsenal both on the ground and through the air. Iowa was historically an Under team, however this year that has changed dramatically. The Hawkeyes 9-2 to the Over this season and they are averaging 29 PPG which is up from 15 PPG last season. At home they’ve put up at least 40 points (by themselves) 4 times including 3 Big 10 games. They are facing a Nebraska defense that hasn’t been great down the stretch. Last week they allowed 25 points to Wisconsin but it could have been worse as the Badgers averaged 7.4 YPP in that game. The Huskers have allowed at least 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games and over their last 5 games they’ve allowed an average of 31 PPG. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers played outstanding last week with 44 points on almost 500 yards vs a Wisconsin defense that allowed 16 points to Oregon a week earlier. New OC Dana Holgersen took over just a few weeks ago and their offense is taking shape nicely as he and the players get accustomed to what needs to be done. QB Railoa has really started to play well under Holgorsen completing over 70% of his passes in each of the last 2 games for nearly 500 yards through the air. A huge weight was lifted off Nebraska’s shoulders last week as their win over Wisconsin got them to bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. They can play loose here and be aggressive on offense. These to Big 10 rivals have gotten to at least 41 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the only exception being last year when Iowa had the worst offense in the nation (both total offense and scoring) and the total was set at 25 points. We look for both teams to get to at least 20 here which puts it Over the total.

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Colorado's last home game was a 5-2 loss and that was the 10th time in 12 games that a Colorado home game totaled at least 7 goals!  We don't see this strong trend ending anytime soon and certainly not tonight.  The Avalanche enter this game off an 8-2 loss following a 7-4 win!  Yes, each of Colorado's last two games reached double digits in goals.  Speaking of wildly high-scoring games like that, the only meeting so far this season between these teams was an 8-4 Vegas win in the season opener for the Avalanche!  Last season 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams reached at least the 7 goal mark as well.  This season these are two of the top power plays in the league and also two of the worst penalty killing teams!  In other words, seeing some goals from the special teams is highly likely to boost this one as well.  Vegas enters this one off B2B high-scoring wins and the Golden Knights are one of the highest scoring teams in the league.  Colorado is averaging 3.5 goals scored per game at home this season.  The goaltending has been a little better of late for the Avalanche but it has still been spotty and facing one of the tougher teams in the league to defend will not help matters tonight.  Annunen has struggled between the pipes and though Georgiev has improved recently he now has stumbled in back to back appearances with 7 goals allowed in a game and a half ice time.  That half game was in relief of Annunen Monday and he struggled.  Vegas will pressure the Avalanche plenty in this one and should score very well but Colorado at home also should be up to the task to match them with plenty of scoring of their own on home ice where they play with extra confidence in the offensive zone.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Wednesday in Colorado.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON Under 135.5 Points – Ball State vs Richmond at 6 PM ET - Both teams are better on the defensive end of the court compared to offensive. These offenses are ranked 291st and 302nd in eFG% and both shoot under 30% from deep. Neither team relies on the 3 point shot very heavily (both under 30% of their points come from deep) so we should see this game mainly played inside the arc. Both teams are poor on the offensive glass ranking 355th and 360th nationally so we should see mainly 1 and done offensive possessions. Throw out their game vs Mount Olive (whatever that is) and Richmond has topped 70 points only once this season and that was vs a poor Marist defense. Throw out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and Ball State is averaging just 68 PPG and they’ve faced only 1 opponent currently ranked inside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Ball State games are averaging 142 total points (in their 5 vs D1 opponents) but that is really misleading due to their game vs very fast paced, good offensive, and poor defensive team, Indiana State, where they totaled 178 points. Take that out and we’re down to 134 average points per game. Richmond has played 5 games vs D1 opponents and 4 of those didn’t reach 130 and all of them were 136 or lower (125 total points average). Poor offense and solid D leads to an Under in this one.

ASA NBA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226ppg. This O/U is set slightly lower than that and we are betting this won’t be anything close to average. Milwaukee and Miami are perceived as defensive teams, based on past editions, but that isn’t the case anymore. Miami ranks 12th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.124-points per possession, after ranking 4th last season. Milwaukee was one of the best teams defensively in the NBA just a few years ago and now rank 15th in DEFF. The Bucks are the 13th fastest paced team in the league, the Heat are 21st. Milwaukee is 15th in Offensive Efficiency, the Heat are 17th in OEFF. Milwaukee has the 5th best Effective Field Goal percentage in the NBA at 55.9%, the Heat are 20th at 52.5%. Miami has gone Over in 4 of their last five games, the Bucks are on a 4-2 Over run. This has been a very good rivalry in the East historically and 8 of the last ten meetings have gone Over the number. In the last ten games, at least one of the two teams has scored 119+ points. Both teams get into the high Teens in this one which goes Over the number rather easily.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points – New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Don’t pay much attention to Miami’s season long offensive numbers which aren’t great. They played a number of games without QB Tagovailoa and went on a stretch of 5 straight games scoring 15 points or less prior to his return. Since Tua has re-entered the line up, the Fins have scored 27, 27, 23 and 34 points. Since he returned, Miami ranks 4th in the NFL in offensive success rate over the last 4 games. They have averaged 3.17 points per possession during that stretch which is 2nd in the NFL behind only Detroit over the last 4 weeks. They should have plenty of success vs a New England defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, YPP allowed, rush & pass defense. The Pats have allowed less than 20 points only twice in their last 9 games and that was vs Chicago, who ranks dead last in YPP on offense, and vs this Miami team the first time around who was starting Tyler Huntley at QB who just joined the team. Even in that 15-10 Miami win with Huntley still learning the offense, the Fins put up 372 yards. New England’s offense has been much better with Drake Maye at QB instead of Brissett. In Maye’s 5 starts, the Pats have averaged above their season average in YPP in 4 of those games. The average total points in games where Brissett was the start is 35 and total points in games where Maye starts is 44. The weather looks perfect in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation. With Miami sitting as a 7 point favorite the implied score of this game is right around 26.5 to 19.5. We like New England to get to at least 20 and Miami may just get into the 30’s here. Over is the call.

#181/182 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER 44.5 Points - Air Force at Nevada, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This O/U number reflects the Air Force team we saw early in the season that struggled to move the football offensively and put points on the board. AF scored 7 or less points in 3 of their first five games and couldn’t get their vaunted running game going. They’ve made a QB change and the offense has taken off the last two weeks against Fresno State and Oregon State. Against Fresno, who ranks 14th in YPP defense, they ran it for 344 total yards at 4.3 yards per carry and put up 38-points. Last week against OSU they amassed 409 total yards and 28-points. This Air Force offense will face limited resistance from a Wolfpack D that is 96th in rushing yards allowed per game and 102nd in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. Nevada should put up points in this game too and they rank 45th in rushing yards per game at 178.5 and yards per rush at 4.8 per carry. Air Force is 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 101st in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. The Wolfpack have put up 21-points in recent conference games against Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State who all rank significantly higher than Air Force defensively. These two teams did not meet last season but the two prior they scored 68 and 80-points. This game won’t get to those numbers but it will get over 45-total points.

#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – IPFW vs Penn State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Both teams in this match up love to play fast so we expect a lot of possessions in this game. Penn State ranks 12th nationally in adjusted tempo and IPFW ranks 88th. Can these offenses take advantage of a high possession game? Yes. Both are solid shooting teams with PSU hitting over 51% of their shots on the season and IPFW hitting 49%. They both are in the top 100 in 3 point FG% and they each average 10 made 3 pointers which puts them in the top 75. The Nittany Lions are putting up 1.14 points per possession which is in the top 50 and the Mastodons are averaging 1.09 PPP which is in the top 100. PSU has hit at least 86 points in every game this season and they’ve topped 100 twice. Their 86 points output over the weekend vs Va Tech was impressive as the Hokies have a solid defense and they were allowing just 62 PPG entering their game vs Penn State. PSU ranks 10th in the nation averaging 97 PPG. The IPFW offense has reached at least 90 points in 3 of their games this season and they are averaging 87 PPG on the season (48th nationally). When these teams get to the FT line they’ve been very successful as well with IPFW hitting 82% from the stripe and PSU 73%. Both defenses have solid numbers, however they have each played a number of poor offensive teams this season with only 1 of their 8 combined opponents ranking in the top 100 in offensive efficiency. At least 1 team has reached 90 points in 6 of their 8 combined games this season. The projected score of this one based on the spread in PSU 86, IPFW 72. Our numbers have both of those teams topping their projected total. Over is the call here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers – 10:30 PM ET - Apparently, the NBA In-Season Tournament means a lot to the Lakers who won it last year and decided to hang a banner in their rafters. The game should have added motivation for this Jazz team that doesn’t have any other high-profile players other than Markkanen and an additional paycheck would go a long way for these younger players. Honestly, that is maybe an added bonus but doesn’t really impact our handicapping process for this game. These two teams should put up a ton of points tonight. Utah is the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA at 99.6 possessions per game. The Lakers are only a few spots below them in the rankings at 99.1 possessions per game. Neither team defends well either. The Jazz allow the most points per possession per game at 1.192, the Lakers rank 25th in DEFF allowing 1.169PPP. Los Angeles is the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA, the Jazz though rank 27th. In the three meetings between these two teams last season, one team scored 130+ and the total points scored were 260, 257 and 230. Going back even further one of the two teams involved in this clash has scored 127 or more points in seven straight. Both teams are coming off of lower scoring games but that changes tonight as this one gets to the 240’s.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys,  Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cowboys offense has looked underwhelming all season long and after QB Prescott was injured, they looked even worse last week.  In their 34-6 loss vs Philadelphia the Cowboys put up just 2 FG’s on 148 total yards of offense.  QB Cooper Rush threw for only 45 yards before giving way to 3rd stringer Trey Lance who threw for 21 yards.  They only drove the ball across midfield 2 times during the game and the other time they were in Eagle territory was because Philly fumbled on their own 25 yard line and Dallas recovered.  We don’t expect this offense to do much vs a Houston defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing just 288 YPG and 5th in YPP allowed at 5.2.  The Dallas defense actually played fairly well vs a red hot Eagle offense holding them to 5.4 YPP as Philly entered last week’s game averaging over 6.0 YPP their previous 3 games.  The problem was Dallas turned the ball over a ridiculous 5 times which led to Philadelphia TD drives of 17 and 37 yards and FG drives of 0 and 9 yards.  That’s 20 points given away due to turnovers.  Houston’s offense hasn’t been great this season averaging just 5.1 YPP which is 20th in the NFL.  The Texans have topped 24 points only once in their last 9 games and they are just 2-7-1 to the Over this season.  We think both offenses struggle in this game making the Under our play.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 230 Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers, 6:10 PM ET - These two teams were both near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency a year and have been much better this season. In their last five games these two teams rank 18th and 19th in DEFF allowing 1.146PPP. Atlanta found a defensive stopper Dyson Daniels who’s averaging nearly 4 steals per game. The Hawks also get one of their best defenders back today in De’Andre Hunter. Atlanta is a below average shooting team with an EFG% of 53.6% which ranks 17th in the NBA. Atlanta is near league average in fastbreak points per game at 15.8. Portland’s defense played really well in their last two games holding a potent T’Wolves offense to 108 and 98-points. The Blazers have had a few defensive stinkers but have held 6 of their last ten opponents to 111 or less points. Offensively, the Blazers struggle to score with the 28th rated FG% at 43.4%, rank 27th in 3PT% and have the last Offensive Efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.064PPP. The value in the number has us on this game UNDER!

#363/364 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Over 57.5 Points - Kansas vs BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We were on Kansas last week and mentioned they are playing very well right now especially on offense. They proceeded to put up 45 points on 532 yards vs a solid ISU defense. They’ve really kicked it in gear on that side of the ball averaging 36 PPG over their last 4 games. Their lowest point total during that stretch was 27 vs KSU but had over 400 yards of offense so that point total should have been higher. In their last 4 games KU has averaged 452 YPG on 7.2 YPP. Impressive to say the least. The problem with the Jayhawks is their defense. Last week they led big vs ISU (38-13 in the 3rd quarter) but the KU defense let the Cyclones score 3 TD’s in the final 20:00 minutes of game time. ISU averaged over 7.0 YPP in the game. KU’s defense has allowed at least 29 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only exception being Houston who ranks 127th in total offense. BYU’s offense wasn’t great last week vs a solid Utah defense (22 points) but prior to that they had scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games. In last week’s game they were playing a Utah offense that can’t score and was down to their 3rd string QB so BYU wasn’t pushed to score a bunch of points (BYU won 22-21). The Cougars average 34 PPG on the season ranking them in the top 30 nationally. These teams have combined to go 12-6 to the Over this year with BYU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 5 and KU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last year they met in Kansas and put up 65 total points with the total set at 56.5. Weather looks perfect in Provo on Saturday night with temps in the mid 30’s but almost no wind. This one is a shootout and we like the Over.

ASA play on OVER 229 Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - Even though this line has been bet up from the opener, it still hasn’t been adjusted enough. These two teams met in the first week of the season and the O/U on that game was 235. They combined for 209 total points in large part of a horrible shooting performance by the Jazz. Last year in 3 meetings these two teams produced total points of 233, 229 and 244. Utah is 29th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.185-points per possession. They have the 25th ranked FG% defense allowing opponents to make just under 485 of their attempts. Sacramento is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% and should get plenty of uncontested attempts and scores against this Jazz defense. Utah wants to play fast with the 10th rated pace at 100 possessions per game. The Kings prefer that tempt with the 12th most possessions per game in the league. The Kings have put up 126 or more points in 3 of their last four games. Utah has scored and allowed 110+ points in three straight games. The Jazz will get to 110+ and the Kings are scoring more than 120. Over is the call here.

#317/318 ASA PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points – Wyoming vs Colorado State, Friday at 8 PM ET - The season long stats for Wyoming’s offense aren’t impressive but you can throw out the first month of the season because this team is moving the ball and putting points on the board as of late. The Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 28 PPG during that 5 game stretch. That success should continue vs a CSU defense that ranks 104th in total defense. We expect the Rams to also put up solid offensive numbers vs a Wyoming defense that also ranks outside the top 100 (115th) in total defense this season. CSU’s offense has scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 5 games and they’ve reached at least 21 points in 6 of their last 8 games, most of those vs teams with better defenses than this Wyoming squad. CSU has reached at least 55 total points in 3 of their last 5 games and Wyoming games have gotten to at least 50 points in 4 of their last 5. With 2 defenses ranked outside the top 100 and good weather on tap (temps in the 30’s but almost no wind) these teams should fare well offensively. Both are easily capable of topping 21 points which should get us to this Over.

ASA play on UNDER 221.5 Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 pm ET - The Kings are coming off a big road win in Phoenix yesterday and now face a Spurs team off an upset home loss on Saturday. We expect a low scoring game between these Western Conference foes. The Kings play slightly faster than the league average in pace, the Spurs are below average at 97.6 possessions per game. Sacramento is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, the Spurs rank 26th. Defensively these two teams are solid with the Spurs allowing just 1.111-points per possession (10th), the Kings allow 1.116PPP which ranks 11th. San Antonio has the 7th best FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 45.3% of their attempts. Sacramento has the 8th best FG% D and have held 5 of their last eight opponents to 110 or less points. Contrary to what you might believe the Kings have some solid Under tendencies. Sacramento has played Under in 28 of their 48 road games and are 11-6 Under their last seventeen games when playing without rest. When the Spurs have had an O/U number of 220 or higher posted on them this season they are 5-1 to the Under.

#281/282 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46 Points - New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Jets have two trends with their team right now with the offense improving and the defense sliding in the opposite direction. NY is averaging 5.1 Yards Per Play on the season and 5.7YPP in their most recent three games. Defensively they allow 4.6YPP overall, 4.8YPP in their last three games. New York allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their first four games but have allowed 23 or more in 4 of their last five games. In a recent game against the Steelers, who have similar offensive numbers compared to this Cardinals team the Jet’s D allowed 37 points and over 400-yards of offense. Offensively the Jets have explosive weapons at every position, and they played one of their best games last game versus a Texans defense that is significantly better than this Arizona unit. The Cardinals are allowing the 11th most Yards Per Play at 5.6, they rank 22nd in rushing YPG allowed and 24th in passing YPG given up. Arizona’s defense has held three pedestrian offenses (Bears, Chargers and Rams-injured) to 9, 15 and 10-points. Against the good offenses they’ve faced they have given up 34, 20, 42, 23, 34 and 27-points. The Cardinals are going to put up points in this game too. Arizona is 9th in Yards Per Play at 6.1 and has a potent rushing attack that is top 10 in the league. Arizona has scored 24+ points in 3 of their last five games with 28 and 29 in their last two.

#267/268 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 PM ET - Light showers expected in DC on Sunday but light winds so scoring shouldn’t be affected. Pitt’s offense has been much better since Russell Wilson took over at QB. In his 2 games under center the Steelers put up 6.2 YPP vs Jets and 6.8 YPP vs Giants. They are averaging 31.5 PPG with Wilson compared to 20.5 PPG when Fields was the starter. They should have plenty of success vs a Washington defense that ranks 24th in YPP allowed and struggles to stop the run (29th in rush defense & 31st in YPC allowed). That plays right into Pittsburgh’s hands as they run the ball well which will open up the play action for Wilson who is averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Washington’s offense is rolling but has blown a lot of redzone opportunities the last few weeks in games they should have scored much more than they did. They averaged 6.7 YPP and 6.0 YPP the last 2 and scored 45 points in those 2 games. The total yardage they gained in those 2 games (over 800 yards) would normally produce 56 points for an average NFL yards per point team. They face a Pittsburgh offense that has solid numbers (13th in YPP allowed) but those numbers look like they could be misleading. That’s because they haven’t played an offense since week 1 that currently ranked in the top 15 in YPP and the average of the offenses they’ve faced rank 21st in YPP. Now they face a Commander offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL putting up 6.4 YPP. The Commanders have scored on a league-high 60.7% of their drives. The next closest team (Baltimore) is at 51.0%. The Steelers have scored on 45.9% of their possessions, which is sixth in the league. Everything here points to a high scoring game and this total is set too low. Over is the call.

ASA play on UNDER 225 Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Clippers defense has improved immensely with Jeff Van Gundy as a Clippers assistant as they rank 6th in Efficiency ratings this season allowing just 1.101-points per possession. L.A. is coming off two straight games of allowing less than 100-points. The Clippers are also the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA this season at 96.6 possessions per game. LA takes on average 15.2 seconds per possession to get a shot off which is 27th slowest in the league. Toronto has some horrific defensive numbers and ranks dead last in the league in Efficiency rating allowing 1.210PPP. Those numbers are somewhat misleading though as they have faced 7 opponents this season that rank top 10 in Offensive Efficiency which has skewed those defensive numbers. Tonight, they catch a break with the Clippers coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Clippers aren’t efficient offensively at 1.115PPP which ranks 19th in the NBA. The Raptors are 9th in pace of play and 11th in shots per second. Both teams rank in the bottom ten of the league in 3-point attempts so there won’t be a heavy volume of scoring from beyond the arc in this one. Our projections have this game finishing with 218 total points.

#55/56 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens are happy to be back home after a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh followed a 6-3 loss at Washington.  Montreal is now looking to get back to work on home ice for a key game prior to a longer road trip on deck.  From Halloween until mid-November, this is the Canadiens only home game.  Their most recent home game was an 8-2 loss.  While the chances of a Montreal sudden turnaround on defense and/or in goal has appeared highly unlikely from what we are seeing from this hockey club right now, the Canadiens had scored 3.3 goals per game in an 8-game stretch prior to this 3-game losing streak.  This included B2B wins by a combined score of 9 to 5 prior to the 8-2 home loss.  Montreal should resume those high-scoring ways as they take on a Flames team that just lost for the 5th time in 6 games and it was a loss to their biggest rival, Edmonton.  The 5 losses in this 1-5 stretch have featured a goals allowed average of 4.6 goals per loss!  Calgary, like Montreal, is having issues both defensively and in goal.  The Flames have given up at least 4 goals in each of their last 5 losses.  Calgary has scored 3.5 goals per game in their 4 games in non-Conference action this season.  East-West match-ups do tend to feature less defensive intensity than in-conference games and especially divisional games.  We look for a rather wide-open game here.  Montreal has allowed 4.7 goals per game against Western Conference foes and the Canadiens did score 5 goals in their lone win against a Western Conference team this season.  Both teams rank among the worst in the league for shots allowed per game and we expect plenty of quality scoring chances in this one.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in Montreal.

#465/466 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points - Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings at 8:20 PM ET - Indy’s offense gets a shot in the arm here with Joe Flacco starting at QB.  There has been a big difference in this offense when Flacco starts and plays the majority of the game the Colts are averaging 27 PPG.  That includes games vs Tennessee and Pittsburgh, 2 top 10 defenses.  When Richardson starts and plays the majority of the game for Indianapolis they are averaging just 19 PPG.  Flacco completes 66% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 1 interception.  Richardson has completed 44% of his passes with 4 TD’s and 7 interceptions.  Huge upgrade in the passing game Flacco under center to go along with an Indy running game that ranks 11th in the NFL.  They should have success vs a Minnesota defense that is trending down allowing at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Vikings offense is averaging 27 PPG on the season on 6.1 YPP (8th in the NFL).  They are facing an Indianapolis defense that ranks 28th in total D, can’t stop the run (30th in run defense) and is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just over 68% of their passes (27th in the league).  They have held a few recent opponents to a lower scoring output, however those offenses rank near the bottom of the NFL (Tennessee 28th in scoring & Miami 32nd in scoring).  Minnesota also gets a huge boost offensively in this game with one of the top TE’s in the NFL, TJ Hockenson, returning from an injury.  At home the Minnesota offense has been very good averaging 29 PPG this season on 6.4 YPP.  Since 2020, the Vikings have gone 17-5-1 to the Over as home favorites if the total is less than 51 points which is a key NFL number.  Another Over here.

#460/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points - Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two fast paced teams in this game (6th and 9th in seconds per play) should give us plenty of opportunities to put up points.  Chicago’s defense has solid numbers and is coming off a game where they allowed only 18 points to Washington, however that score was extremely misleading.  The Commanders blew opportunity after opportunity to get into the endzone and settle for 4 FG’s despite rolling up almost 500 yards on 6.7 YPP.  Prior to playing Washington and allowing big numbers in the stat sheet, the Bears hadn’t played a single offense ranked inside the top 10 in YPP and the average of those 6 prior offenses was 19th in YPP.  Arizona ranks 9th in YPP and should have success here.  On the other side, Arizona’s defense is not good.  They rank 28th in YPP allowed and 27th in total defense.  They’ve allowed at least 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and the one game they did not was vs the Chargers who averaged 6.2 YPP in the game but settled for 5 FG’s and fumbled at the Arizona 1-yard line.  The Bears offense wasn’t great last week vs a vastly improved Washington defense, however Chicago showed some real progress leading into that game.  In their previous 3 games the Bears were ranked in the top 10 in YPP and YPG offensively while averaging 32 PPG.  We expect them to get back on track vs a poor defense on Sunday.  Perfect conditions for scoring in Arizona on Sunday and the Cards have topped this total (44.5 points) in 4 of their last 5 games.  With this line around a pick-em both teams projected total is right around 22 points.  We expect both to eclipse that.  Take the Over. 

#385/386 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points Wyoming vs New Mexico, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total due to recent results (last weekend) from these 2 teams. This total sits at 60 to 61 points as of this writing on Friday and our power ratings say this total should be 66. NM games are averaging 73.5 total points and that includes last week’s game where they lost to CSU 17-6. That game was very misleading as the Lobos put up over 450 yards on 6.0 YPP but had 4 turnovers. 3 of those turnovers were inside CSU territory taking away potential points for the Lobos. The 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards and both averaged 6.0 YPP which should result in a much higher scoring game. Prior to last week’s game New Mexico had scored at least 50 points in 3 straight games. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total offense and they play fast (14th nationally in offensive plays run per game). They should have big time success vs this Wyoming defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, AND pass defense. The Wyoming offense has poor overall numbers this season, but they are definitely trending up. After not topping 17 points in any of their first 4 games, the Cowboys have now reached at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week vs a Utah State defense that ranks almost identical to this New Mexico defense (those teams rank 132nd and 131st in total defense), Wyoming put up almost 500 yards on 6.4 YPP. They scored 25 points but it should have been more as they settled for 4 FG’s (6 total FG’s in the game between the 2 teams) and fumbled deep inside USU territory. The Cowboys were one of the slower paced teams in the country last year but under their new regime they are playing much faster this season. The weather looks perfect in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon with temps on the 60’s and very little wind. These teams have combined to play 16 games this season and 11 of those have gone Over the total. Both defenses rank outside the top 100 in pretty much every key category as we mentioned. Last year these 2 combined to score 61 points, yet both defenses had much better numbers than this year’s stop units. The projected score on this game based on the point spread (NM -7 to -8 range) is New Mexico 34.5, Wyoming 26.5. We’re confident both top those projected totals in this game. Over is the play.

ASA play on OVER 230.5 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These are currently two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers allowing 1.178-points per possession (25th) while the Raptors allow 1.240PPP and rank last in the NBA. Both teams prefer to play fast, ranking 10th and 11th in pace of play. Knowing this game will be up-tempo with two bad defenses is enough for us to bet this Over at a marginal total that is barely higher than league average. The Lakers are 10th in Offensive Efficiency and the Raptors are 15th. Toronto has allowed 127 and 138 points in their last two games to Denver and Charlotte. The Lakers gave up 134 to the Cavs last time out and 127 to the Kings two games ago. This game should easily get into the 240’s. Bet the Over.

#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points - Georgia State vs UConn, Friday at 7 PM ET - UConn’s defense is locked in right now allowing a total of 70 points over their last 5 games (14 PPG).  They rank 17th nationally in YPP allowed and they’ve allowed more than 23 points only once this season.  That defensive success shouldn’t change here vs a Georgia State offense that is averaging only 22 PPG (107th nationally).  The Panthers have topped 21 points only twice this season vs FBS opponents which isn’t overly impressive as 4 of the 6 FBS defenses they’ve faced rank below 100th in total defense.  This will be the best defense Georgia State (76th in total offense) has faced this season. On the other side of the ball, UConn has struggled offensively scoring 22, 20, and 17 points (offensive points) over their last 3 games.  They are averaging just 328 YPG in their last 3 that includes 2 opponents whose defense ranks outside the top 90.  The Huskies last 3 games have averaged 37 total points and with windy weather expected on Friday night, we look for a lower scoring game.  Under is the call.

ASA play on UNDER 221.5 Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - These two teams have made significant moves in the offseason which has bolstered each teams’ defenses. The Suns hired Mike Budenholzer who is known for his defense and the Clippers hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant, who is a master of defensive philosophy. It has paid immediate dividends as the Clippers are 3rd in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.051-points per possession, the Suns rank 6th allowing 1.083PPP. Last year these teams finished the season 13th (Suns) and 16th (Clippers) in DEFF. Both teams are below average in terms of pace, the Suns rank 19th, the Clippers 22nd. With the marquee names on both teams, you would expect both to be much better offensively than they actually are. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Suns rank 17th at 1.115-points per possession, the Clippers rank 24th at 1.084PPP. These two teams have met already this season which resulted in 229 points, but 23 of those came in overtime. Both teams shot above expectations, and the game would have finished with 206 total points in regulation.  We expect a defensive battle tonight in this big Western Conference showdown.

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Texans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets finished the entire season ranked 10th in DEFF so it’s clearly not just a one year thing. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games of the season though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league. This season in four games the Mavericks are allowing 1.098PPG which is 10th best in the league. Contrary to what you might think, the Mavs play at a slower tempo averaging 100 possessions per game which ranks 17th. The Rockets are slower yet in pace of play at 98.25, 25th slowest in the NBA. Thus far into the season these two teams have not shot it well either with the Mavericks ranking 22nd in EFG% shooting, the Rockets are 28th. The average total points scored in a NBA game this season is slightly higher than this, but we don’t see this being average with a slow tempo, great defense and below average shooting.