#891/892 ASA PLAY ON Over 162.5 Points – Arizona vs BYU, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’ll get plenty of shot attempts in this game as both teams love to play at a fast tempo. Arizona is 28th in adjusted tempo and BYU is 57th. Both are in the top 40 in shot attempts per game and top 12 in FG’s made per game. They rank 4th (Arizona) and 11th nationally in offensive efficiency and the Wildcats average 89 PPG (5th) and BYU puts up 87 PPG (13th). Arizona is top 10 nationally hitting almost 52% of their shots and it doesn’t drop off much on the road where they still make 50%+. While BYU makes “only” 46% on the road, at home that jumps to 52% and they average 93 PPG at the Marriott Center. The Cougs have been held under 85 points only once this season at home. Arizona’s defense has very good overall numbers but in Big 12 play on they road this season they’ve allowed 78 @ Utah, 77 @ UCF, and 73 @ TCU and those teams rank 12th, 8th and 15th in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency (all games this season). BYU’s defense ranks outside the top 50 in FG% allowed and outside the top 100 in 3 point FG% allowed. They are allowing 77 PPG in Big 12 play and this is the best offense they’ve seen this season. Both meetings went Over the total last year with 159 and 191 points scored. We like this to get to the mid 160’s at worst.

NHL #35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-135) - NY Islanders at Philadelphia, Monday at 7:07 PM ET - Flyers are off the big 7-3 upset win at Colorado and that was the 11th time in 13 games that a Philly game featured at least 6 goals.  Those 11 games have averaged 8 goals and we love the value here with the total.  The Islanders are a divisional foe and their final meeting with the Flyers last season was a 4-3 game and each of the two meetings this season have also been 4-3 games.  New York is in a great spot for goals here as you know where their emphasis will be tonight.  The Islanders are off B2B losses in which they scored a total of only 1 goal and they just lost 5-0 at home to the Sabres.  That was the first time this season that the Islanders were shutout and now they face a familiar foe and a chance to get back on track in terms of their offensive production.  New York will respond and score well here but this Islanders team has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of last 7 games.  In those 6 games the Islanders allowed an average of 4 goals.  The Flyers, other than a 2-1 win at Vegas where they were very fortunate they did not allow a few more goals, have allowed at least 3 goals in each of their other 7 games since January 10th and Philadelphia allowed an average of 5 goals in those 7 games!  Nice set up for yet another high-scoring game between these division rivals.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Philadelphia

English Premier League #200033/200034 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-140) – Manchester United at Arsenal, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Arsenal, if you look at their last 8 matches, has surprisingly had a couple of scoreless draws in Premier League action.  But the other 6 matches (in EPL and other action too) averaged 4.5 goals and all 6 of them totaled at least 3 goals.  With Arsenal off a disappointing result in their last two EPL games, we look for a strong effort here with a focus on creating more chances in front of goal.  This will play right into the hands of a confident Manchester United side and should result in plenty of scoring opportunities going both ways in this one.  Manchester United enters this game on a run in which only 1 of their last 8 EPL matches was a loss.  They have averaged scoring 2 goals in those 8 matches and they have revenge here from a home shutout in the prior meeting between these clubs this season.  Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting this one to reach a total of 3 to 4 as having the highest probability factors.  Over gets the call in this one!  

ASA NBA play on UNDER 230.5 Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Celtics are off a game last night and will do everything in their power to slow the Bulls down tonight in their building. Boston is the slowest paced team in the NBA overall and has a 5-2 Under record this season when playing without rest. Chicago is one of the fastest paced teams in the league at 101.5 possessions per game, but they have slowed in their last 5 games with 99 possessions per game which is 11th fastest. Both teams are playing significantly better on the defensive end of the court in recent games with each team ranking top 12 in defensive efficiency in their last 5-games (Celtics 5th, Bulls 12th). These same two teams met in early January and produced 216 total points. Last season, three of the four meetings finished with 225 or less points. There are some clear betting indicators that are signaling UNDER in this one.

English Premier League #200013/200014 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Brighton at Fulham, Saturday at 10 am et - Fulham matches hosting Brighton have totaled 3 goals each of the last 3.  Brighton enters this one having scored 9 times in the last 6 games.  Fulham matches at home have totaled at least 3 goals in 3 straight games and 4 of the last 5.  Fulham has scored multiple goals in each of the last 3 on their home pitch.  Brighton averaging 1.5 goals scored in their last 4 away from home.  Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting this one to reach a total of 3 to 4 as having the highest probability factors.  Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40pm ET - These same two teams met just about 2 weeks ago in Denver and produced 212 total points. That was with Denver missing 5 of their top seven players including Jokic and Murray. That previous game, plus the Nuggets coming off an extremely low scoring game last night in Washington, has forced the oddsmakers to set an unusually low number on this game. Denver is 6-2 to the OVER when playing without rest this season and those games have gone OVER by an average of +5.3ppg. This game is going to feature two of the best shooting teams in the NBA and two average or below defenses. The Nugs are the best shooting team in the NBA at 49.8% and hit 39.7% from deep (1st) but they rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.180-points per possession. Milwaukee ranks 5th in team FG% at 48.3% and are the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the league, but like the Nuggets they don’t play great defense ranking 21st in dEFF. We won’t need a lot of possessions in this game to cash this bet with a number that is more than 15-points lower than the league average. The Bucks and their opponents have scored 216 or more points in 8 straight games at the Fiserv Forum. In the Nuggets 25 road games this season they have combined with their opponent to score 216 or more points 23 times. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30pm ET - The Suns are currently playing their 6th straight road game in Atlanta and looking forward to going back home after this game. To start this road trip the Suns played in Miami which gives us a great comparison for tonight’s outcome. Phoenix and Miami had an O/U number of 233.5 and went well OVER that number with 248 total points. The comparison between Miami/Atlanta is this: They both play at a high rate ranking 1st and 2nd in pace, have comparable offensive efficiency stats and the Hawks are far worse defensively. Atlanta is going to put up points and give them up in this game. As we mentioned, the Hawks are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA and will force tempo. The offense hasn’t been great in recent games as they’re working on incorporating the new trade pieces of McCollum and Kispert into the lineup. In their most recent game against the Grizzlies (246 total points) the offense started to click with 47% shooting overall and 44% from deep. Plus, the Suns defense on this road trip hasn’t been as good as their overall season statistics as they are allowing 1.166-points per possession in their last 5 games compared to the 1.133PPP they allow on the season. Phoenix also has Jalen Green back in the lineup who provides additional offensive firepower for the Suns. In the last 5 meetings between these two teams they have combined for 238 or more total points. Bet OVER!

French Ligue 1 - #203201/203202 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (-115) Paris Saint-Germain at Auxerre, Friday at 2:00 ET - PSG is off a Champions League loss to Sporting Lisbon earlier this week and they will be ready to respond here.  PSG is a 1.5 goal favorite on the goal line in this one and we are expecting an aggressive attack-minded approach to this match for the visitors as they look to bounce back off a loss.  PSG also had a recent shock loss to Paris FC in the Coupe de France.  They responded after that defeat and they will also respond off the Champions League loss.  In their last 7 victories PSG has scored an average of 3 goals and we also project them to allow a goal or two here.  Auxerre will take advantage of being at home for this match and PSG has allowed 9 goals in its last 8 matches.  Auxerre is off of B2B road shutout losses but in their last two Ligue 1 matches at home they scored 3 goals in each of the matches!  They can again score a goal or two here at home in this one!  Our computer math model has this one most likely finishing in the 3-1 or 3-2 range. Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40 pm ET - Both teams are beat up right now with several key players less than 100%. OKC’s injury list includes Caruso, Williams, Hartenstein, and the 'other' J. Williams. The Bucks current injury report includes Turner, Porter Jr and Giannis is on a minutes restriction. The Bucks defense isn’t what it should be considering this roster but they still have the 12th best FG% defense in the league. The Thunder have the best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.068 points per possession and the #1 FG% D in the NBA. OKC is average in terms of pace of play and the Bucks are much slower at 98.4 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Last season these two teams met 3 times with the UNDER going 3-0 and those three games averaged just over 208 total points per game. Injuries, tempo and defense have us on the UNDER in this one.

Champions League #224241/224242 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-105) – Atletico Madrid at Galatasaray, Wednesday at 12:45 pm ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here.  Galatasaray is off a 1-1 home draw but in their other recent home matches they have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 in their home stadium.  Atletico Madrid has scored an average of 2 goals in their last 8 matches.  All 6 Champions League matches for Atletico Madrid have totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the 6 reached at least the 4-goal mark.  Galatasaray has trended under in Champions League matches in this term but is generally known for scoring well at home and they are the type of club that is built well in terms of being able to counter Atletico Madrid here.  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty here and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and laying minimal juice with the over at 3 goals!   

Champions League #224201/224202 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-110) – Club Brugge at Kairat, Tuesday at 10:30 am ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here. Kairat Almaty is hosting this match and their most recent Champions League match was a 1-0 loss but this followed a number of high-scoring games. In Champions League games prior to that one, 4 of 5 Kairat matches totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4.5 goals apiece. Club Brugge is favored on the road here and will take advantage of facing a foe they should be able to hold the upper hand against. The visitors have scored multiple goals in 7 of last 9 games overall and a stretch of high-scoring battles have been the theme. 8 of those 9 matches reached a total of 3+ goals. Club Brugge will score very well here but it is also difficult to trust a defense that has played a role in this team allowing an average of 2.1 goals in the last 8 games. We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty here and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and only having to lay minimal juice with the over at 3 goals!

NHL #13/14 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-130) - Winnipeg at Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - The Jets have been an over machine for a lengthy stretch now.  With Hellebuyck not in his typical form in goal for Winnipeg, they are now in the midst of a stretch in which 9 straight games have reached at least the 6-goal mark!  The Jets have scored an average of 4 goals in this 9-game stretch and they should stay hot here in the offensive zone against Chicago.  That seems likely as the Blackhawks have allowed an average of 4 goals in their last 11 home games!  The Hawks have struggled to score goals recently but facing a Jets team that has allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 9 games should certainly help things open up again for Chicago here on home ice!  When the Blackhawks enter a game on a streak of 2 or more games in which they were held to 2 or less goals in regulation, they have scored an average of 3 goals in their next game.  The 3 times Chicago was on home ice and in this situation they have averaged scoring 4 goals in their next game!  We like the Blackhawks to come up strong here on home ice offensively but also to continue to have goalie struggles as the Jets stay hot in the offensive zone.  Considering all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 or 8 goals as the most highly probable outcomes in this one.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Chicago

Portugal Primeira Liga: Rotation #206741/206742 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – Estoril Praia at Estrela Amadora, Monday at 3:15 ET - Goal-fest appears likely here. Estoril is on a run in which 7 of 9 matches have reached at least the 3 goal mark. Those 7 matches averaged 4.7 goals each! Estrela is on a run in which 8 of 10 matches have reached at least 3 goals. Those 8 matches averaged 4.8 goals each! The last 3 meetings between these teams have averaged 4 goals per game. Estrela's defense has been weakened as they have been missing two key guys including Rodrigues as he has been out all season. Estoril also has an absence on defense with Costa out with an injury for this one. Given these defensive concerns as well as the recent trending of these teams the goals should again fly in this one! We are looking for a minimum of 3 or 4 goals here and adding to the value in this one is the fact we have a small price to lay in this one on the Over 2.5 goals! We are big on the 'over' here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 9PM ET - Both teams are starting to get healthy and it’s led to more wins and more scoring. The Kings have won 4 straight games and are shooting the ball significantly better in their last 5-games at 52.4% compared to their season average of 46.6%. On the season (played mostly without 3 key starters) the Kings have an eFG% of 52.5% (28th), but in their last 5 games that number is 59.3%, 3rd best in the NBA. Sacramento also has the 4th best offensive net rating in this 5 game stretch. Defensively the Kings are 21st in defensive net rating and allow over 120ppg. Portland has gotten some key pieces back in the line up too and have won 7 of their last nine games. The Blazers are allowing 118.4ppg on the season with the 17th worst defensive net rating at 115.6. Portland’s offense is 11th in net rating over their last 10 games, with an eFG% slightly lower than league average. Our model is projecting 232 total points in this game and we agree with the math. Bet OVER!

#387/388 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the LA Chargers vs New England total Under last week and we see a similar situation this week. That game ended with the Pats winning 16-3 and while we expect Houston’s offense to be better than that, we don’t think this gets into the 40’s. Houston’s defense is better than the Chargers who held the Patriots in check last week. The Texans have the #2 defense in the NFL per DVOA and they’ve allowed more than 21 points in just 3 of their 18 games this season. Houston also leads the NFL in defensive success rate and allows the fewest points per drive. They’ve only allowed points on 27% of their opponents possessions which is also best in the NFL. Offensively, the Texans are pretty average. They put up 30 points last week vs Pittsburgh (30-6 win) but 14 of those points came on defensive scores. They are 25th in YPP on offense and struggle to score TD’s in the redzone with a 47% TD rate which is 4th worst in the league. They will also be without one of their top offensive weapons with WR Nico Collins out for this game. The Pats defense held the Chargers to 3 points on 3.5 YPP and while Houston’s offense should be better here, it’s not a huge step up by any means. The Pats offense is very good but as we’ve discussed in the past, they’ve faced a very weak schedule of defensive teams. The Chargers (last week) were the highest rated D that New England has faced this season and they put up 16 points. Now they take another step up facing a Houston defense that is better than the Chargers. Similar to last week’s New England game, we have 2 slow paced teams as well (21st and 29th in seconds per play) which will limit possessions. This one smells like a 17-14 type game to us and we’ll jump on the Under.

#389/390 ASA PLAY ON Under 45 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals faced off twice this season and scored 47 total points in BOTH games combined. In week 1 of the season the Niners topped Seattle on the road 17-13 and then in the final week of the season in a winner take all match up for the division title, Seattle won 13-3. In those 2 games, the offenses combined to average only 287 YPG on just 4.7 YPP. We don’t see anything changing in this match up. Seattle’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season. They are rated as the #1 defense in the NFL per DVOA (advanced metric), 1st in opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate (just 32%), 2nd in scoring allowing 17.2 PPG and 2nd in YPP allowed at 4.6. Seattle allowed more than 20 points in a game just 4 times this season. While SF’s offense was potent at times this season, the Seahawks have been their kryptonite as they’ve scored a total of 20 points in their 2 games. The Niners faced 8 teams that were top 10 DVOA defense this year and averaged 19 PPG in those games. They will also be without one of the key weapons as TE Kittle was injured last week @ Philly and is done for the year. On the other side, San Fran’s defense has been up and down all season, however they are peaking right now allowing 13 and 19 points their last 2 games (vs Seattle & Philly) and they held the Seahawks to 26 total points in their 2 games. They’ve allowed 24 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Seattle’s offense loves to run the ball (3rd in rushing attempts per game) and that shouldn’t change here. QB Darnold will go in this one but has an injured oblique to you can bet they’ll try and protect him if they can run the ball and eat clock. They ran it 39 times @ SF a few weeks ago and we see a similar situation here. These teams know each other very well and low scoring games have been the norm. 7 of the last 9 meetings have failed to reach 45 points and this one won’t be any different. Let’s grab the Under.

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201937/201938 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-135) – Real Madrid vs Levante, Saturday at 8 AM ET - Real Madrid favored by 2 goals and we look for plenty of scoring here as newly promoted Levante is capable of scoring as well here and we have seen at least 5 goals in each of the last 3 meetings between thee teams. Levante is undefeated in their last 3 matches and has scored 5 goals in the games. Real Madrid, including Champions League action as well as other competitions in Spain in addition to La Liga, has scored multiple goals in 7 straight games! 4 of their last 6 games have totaled at least 5 goals and they have been conceding more often than usual of late. Look for that pattern to continue here. We are looking for 4 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact we have only a moderate price to lay in the one on the Over 3.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here.

NHL #37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Anaheim at Los Angeles, Friday at 10:30 PM ET -  Great situational spot here. The Kings are off B2B losses.  The last 3 occurrences in which LA is off B2B losses they have scored well (average of 4.3 goals in regulation) and all 3 of those games reached a total of at least 7 goals.  Both meetings between these rivals this season have totaled at least 7 goals and that makes it 3 straight overs dating back to last season as the Kings won the final match-up of last season 6-1.  The setup for goals here is a good one as the Ducks are off of a rare under.  Anaheim is off a 3-1 win and this followed 8 straight Ducks games reaching a total of at least 7 goals.  Prior to the 3-1 win, the Ducks had allowed an average of 5 goals in their preceding 11 games!  The Kings have scored an average of 5 goals in the last 3 meetings between these teams!  These teams have not been great on the power play but they do struggle on the penalty kill and there have already been 3 power play goals scored in the first two meetings between these teams this season.  With numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 or 8 goals as the most highly probable outcomes in this one.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Friday in Los Angeles  

ASA NBA play on OVER 215 LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40pm ET - This is a very low total based on NBA averages and numbers this season. NBA games are averaging 232.1 points per game this season and typically finish the season around 227’ish. So Vegas is suggesting this game is going to be that far below the number? We expect this game to get into the 220’s. The Clippers have found a groove with 4 straight wins and an 10-2 record in their last 12 games. The defense of the Clippers in recent weeks has been much improved but it’s the offense that has really played well. L.A. has an offensive net rating of 120.4 over their last 10 games which is the 4th highest number in the league. They also rank 5th in eFG% over that same time period. Toronto has some ‘meh’ statistics and rank near the middle of the league in FG% (47.1%) and field goal attempts but is solid on the O-boards and 12th in 2nd chance points. They are scoring just under 114ppg on the season. As we mentioned earlier, the Clippers have some great defensive stats in recent weeks but on the season this team ranks 25th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.186-points per possession. The Clippers are also 16th in FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT% allowed. We don’t need this game to be any kind of shootout, we just need it to be better than average. Easy OVER call.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 241.5 Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This number opened significantly higher but has been bet down to the current number of 241.5. Our model is telling us that O/U line still isn’t low enough. On the season these two teams play at an extremely high pace, ranking top 5 in tempo. When we examine their most recent trending statistics we find that both are playing much slower in their last 5 games. On the season the Bulls average 102 possessions per game, in their last 5 games that number dips to 97.9, 22nd slowest in the league. Utah is 5th fastest in the NBA on the season with an average of 101.7 possessions per game, but in their last 5 games that average is 99.4 possessions per game. Granted, Utah is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but the Bulls have been much better on that end of the court in recent weeks. Neither team shoots it well enough for this game to get into the 240’s as the Jazz rank 21st in overall team FG% at 46.2%, the Bulls are slightly above league average of 47.2%. Both teams currently sit 20th or worse in offensive efficiency in their most recent 5 games, a clear indicator they are struggling to score. Chicago is coming off a game last night and have stayed UNDER in 4 of six games this season when playing without rest. This game doesn’t get out of the 230’s, bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a tough 4-game West Coast road trip with the most recent game being in Denver, a loss, to the Nuggets without Jokic. Minnesota is coming off a massive win over the Spurs at home and have won 5 of their last six games. We won’t get involved with a side in this game but do like a wager on the OVER. The Bucks have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last ten games with the three Overs coming against the fast-paced Cavaliers and Bulls. The Wolves aren’t the fastest paced team in the league but they do rank 13th in the league at 100.5 possessions per game. We expect that tempo to be even faster tonight without Rudy Gobert slowing down the offense. Also, without Gobert on the floor the Wolves defense is going to be that much worse. Minnesota is on a 7-3 OVER streak in their last ten games and have gone OVER this number in 9 straight road games. These two teams are top 4 in the NBA when it comes to eFG% shooting which means we don’t need a ton of possessions to cash an OVER bet. The Wolves are a top 5 defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency, but as we mentioned they won’t have Gobert for this game. The Bucks are 18th in dEFF allowing 1.167 points per possession (isn’t Doc Rivers supposed to be a defensive coach?). This line opened significantly higher than where it currently stands to grab the value with an OVER wager.

NHL #71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-110) - NY Islanders at Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Both these clubs have been having some goaltending struggles no matter who has been in goal for each team in recent games. Even Hellebuyck has been struggling for the Jets and Sorokin only recently came back for the Islanders and he allowed 3 goals in the most recent game for New York. No matter who is in goal for either side we like the over plenty here because Comrie has had some recent struggles for Winnipeg too and likewise with Rittich for the Islanders. All of this has been a key factor in 8 of the last 10 Winnipeg games totaling at least 6 goals! This includes 6 straight Jets games reaching at least the 6-goal mark! 5 of the Islanders last 7 games have also totaled a minimum of 6 goals. We understand the total being set at only 5.5 goals on this because of the long-term reputation of Hellebuyck and the Jets as well as the Islanders season-long trending toward under. The key here is that recent form is dictating a much different outcome here than what those long-term numbers have produced. The Jets have allowed at least 3 goals in 10 of 11 games! Winnipeg has also scored at least 3 goals in 13 of 16 on home ice! With numbers like this it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a total of 7 goals as the most highly probable outcome in this one. Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in Winnipeg

German Bundesliga - #202437/202438 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (-140) Eintracht Frankfurt at Stuttgart, Tuesday at 12:30 ET - Stuttgart is scoring goals like crazy at the moment. They are also on their home pitch here and this is a Stuttgart club that has scored at least 3 goals in 4 of its last 5 matches (one was an international friendly). 8 of their last 10 matches overall have totaled at least 3 goals. As for Eintracht Frankfurt, 5 of its last 8 matches have reached at least the 5-goal mark and those 5 averaged a total of 5 goals! The last 5 times these clubs have met at Stuttgart, all 5 matches totaled at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4.4 goals each! Stuttgart is favored here at home and yet they are dealing with a number of injuries impacting their defenders. This is another key as to why the goals should fly going both ways here Tuesday! Over gets the call in this one!

#385/386 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Not a great night weather wise for the offenses with windchill in the 20’s and 10 to 15 MPH wind with gusts into the 20 MPH range. The Unders have gone 3-2 in the 5 Wild Card games thus far and we expect a grinder here. Outdoor Unders in the Wild Card round are now 52-25 since 2004. Neither offense operates at a high level with the Texans ranking 25th in YPP and the Steelers 21st. Big plays will be few and far between with The Steelers averaged 10.6 plays of 10 or more yards per game (27th in the NFL) and the Texans average 11.2 per game (24th). These 2 teams have the lowest offensive success rates in the postseason, both ranking outside the top 20. Neither team is great at converting on 3rd down with Pittsburgh ranking 15th and Houston 23rd and they reach 3rd down quite often. They both reach 3rd down on right around 50% of their sets of downs ranking 27th and 28th in the NFL. Defensively Houston is elite ranking #1 in total defense and EPA per play while allowing only 1.52 points per drive (2nd in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s total defense numbers aren’t great (25th) but they’ve been able to limit opponents scoring ranking 17th in that category and they give up 2.10 points per drive which is 14th best. Both are efficient defensively ranking in the top 5 in opponents yards per point. We expect Pittsburgh’s offense to have a really tough time moving the ball and putting points on the board in this game. On the other side, while the Steelers defensive numbers overall are great as we mentioned, they faced 7 offenses this year ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in YPP (Houston is 25th) the Steelers allowed an average of 20 PPG in those games. We’ll go Under in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 7:40 pm ET - These same two teams met in late December on this same court and produced 262 total points with an O/U set of 230.5 and we predict another shootout in this meeting. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Spurs in which they scored just 95-points. They attempted 93 field goals but shot just 41% as a team overall and had 4 FT attempts. That was against a Spurs D that is top 6 in the league in defensive efficiency and the Pacers are not in that same defensive category. Indiana ranks 24th out of 30 teams in dEFF, allowing 1.183 points per possession. Boston should find their stroke in this game with the 12th best FG% shooting team facing a team that ranks 25th in FG% defense. Indiana’s offense has been horrendous this entire season, but in recent weeks they’ve been significantly better. In the Pacers last 8 games they have faced 7 defenses in the top 13 in terms of dEFF and has scored 110 or more in all of those games. Boston ranks 15th in dEFF on the season allowing 1.155PPP. Boston will be motivated after putting up 95-points last time out and should get to their season average of 117ppg which means we just need 110 or so out of the Pacers. We expect this game to get OVER by a comfortable margin.

Italian Serie A #210377/210378 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-115) – Cagliari at Genoa, Monday at 12:45 ET - Excellent value here as getting to 2 goals gets us a push here and we are predicting at least a 2-1 final here.  Cagliari have a knack for coming back in games and Genoa have a knack for blowing leads.  So even if the hosts get out to an early lead here it will not result in any "quit" for the visitors as this has been a common theme for Cagliari.  In fact, Cagliari has had 6 of its last 8 Serie A matches reach at least the 3 goal mark.  Genoa is off B2B 1-1 draws and this followed 7 of 8 matches (including one in Coppa Italia) all reaching a total of at least 3 goals.  Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have reached a total of at least 2 goals and 4 of the 5 reached at least 3 goals!  Per our computer math model, a 2-1 final is the most likely outcome in this one.  Take advantage of the over being set at only 2 goals in this one.  Over is the bet here.    

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234 Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, 8:40pm ET - The Warriors aren’t the team they used to be but still have a reputation for being a great offensive team. The facts of the matter are they rank 17th in Offensive Efficiency, are 25th in team FG% and 14th in eFG%. They also rank 12th in pace of play at 99.5 possessions per game. The Hawks like to play fast with the 2nd most possessions per game in the league, but they have an oEFF of 1.148PPP which is 18th in the NBA. Atlanta is also going to have some continuity issues with Porzingis and Rizacher coming back from injury and also adding recently acquired CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert to the rotation. Golden State is 10th in Defensive Efficiency; the Hawks are 16th. Atlanta has allowed 102 or less points in 4 of their last six games. The Warriors have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 116 or less points. We don’t see either of these teams reaching 117 or better in this game. Bet Under

#383/384 ASA PLAY ON Under 46 Points – LA Chargers vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The weather on Sunday night in the Boston area will be cold and windy, not conducive to scoring points. We have 2 top 10 defense facing off here (both total D and scoring D) and LA has allowed more than 20 points just once over their last 10 games while the Patriots have allowed more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games. Over the last 10 New England has allowed an average of 18 PPG and the Chargers have allowed 17 PPG over that same span. LA is ranked 7th in the NFL in defensive EPA and New England 11th. LA has gone Under the total in 11 of their 17 games this season and they’ve only topped 48 points 3 times this season. While New England has been involved in higher scoring games at times this season, much of that was because of their offense and not a porous defense. Problem is, their offense faced a really weak slate of opposing defenses facing only 3 teams with a top 10 D (total defense) and they average rank of the defenses they’ve faced this season is 19th. The Chargers, top 5 total defense, will be the best defensive unit the Pats have faced this season. The New England offense also thrived on creating big plays this season and they are facing a Charger D that ranks 4th in the NFL in explosive plays allowed. With the shaky weather on Sunday night in Boston, we expect both teams to lean heavily on the run game which eats clock. These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL ranking 28th (Chargers) and 30th (Pats) in seconds per play. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games have gone Under the total at a 68% rate (49-23 to the Under). When the total is set at 41 or other in those games, the Under hits at a 75% rate. We don’t see either team getting to the mid 20’s offensively in this game which leads us to an Under.

English FA Cup #200521/200522 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-115) – Brighton at Manchester United, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Manchester United is off of a 2-2 draw and appears to be responding after the exit of manager Ruben Amorim.  We expect a strong effort again here at home from the Red Devils even if they rotate some players in for this FA Cup match.  Brighton will likely be doing the same in terms of player rotation but the fact is this one sets up well for plenty of scoring.  Brighton realizes that facing Manchester United while they have an interim manager is an opportunity to get the win and advance in the English FA Cup.  Historically they have been on the wrong end of battles with Manchester United in the FA Cup so, even though they are on the road, this is a great spot to get some payback.  Brighton has scored 6 goals last 4 matches and allowed 7 goals last 4 road matches.  Nice back and forth battle sets up well here at Old Trafford.  4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals!  We like our chances here of another one reaching at least the 3 goal mark. That would be a push of course but 4 or more is definitely the most probable outcome here per our computer math model. Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET - If this game goes anything like the first two meetings this season it will be an easy winner. In the two clashes between these two Eastern Conference rivals the total scoring output was 260 and 247. We don’t think we’ll see a game in the high 240’s again, but we are betting this one gets to the mid-230’s. The 76ers offense with Tyrese Maxey is hitting on all 6 cylinders right now with 139, 123, 130, 124 and 131 points scored in their last 5 games. The Sixers have the 2nd best offensive Net rating in the league in that 5-game stretch. Defensively though they’ve been average in that stretch with the 15th DNR rating in the league while giving up an average of 123.4ppg. Philadelphia gets the 3rd most field goal attempts up in the league, so we know they’ll get plenty of opportunities to score. Orlando was known for their defense but slipped on that end of the court this season and is currently ranked 13th in defensive efficiency after ranking 2nd a year ago. Offensively they’ve hovered around league average in most key stat categories including team FG% at 46.8% (16th). The Magic are coming off a low scoring game against the Nets most recently but prior to that game had played three higher scoring games with total points of 232, 262 and 235. We will be happy if this game turns out to be an ‘average’ NBA game which means 233 total points being scored.

English Premier League #200157/200158 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – Liverpool at Arsenal, Thursday at 3 pm et - Arsenal is at home and seeking revenge here as they lost 1-0 at Liverpool earlier this season.  That low-scoring battle snapped a streak in which each of their last three Premier League meetings had totaled 4 goals!  That being said, we love the value here with the low total on this one.  As strong as Arsenal has been defensively this season, they have allowed at least one goal in 4 straight matches (including one in EFL Cup action).  Arsenal has continued to be potent on the attack with an average of 2.2 goals scored in their last 10 matches (including all competitions).  Liverpool is off a 2-2 draw which was their 4th game reaching at least 4 goals in their last 6 Premier League matches.  Liverpool has scored multiple goals in 6 of its last 8 in Premier League matches.  This total has been set low in anticipation of another 'cagey' match between these two clubs and we are going to take advantage!  Arsenal is very healthy for this match and we are aware of the injury issues for Liverpool.  As to that latter fact, Liverpool has enough depth to make up for some of the missing pieces and let's not forget they have a history of giving the Gunners trouble.  In fact the Reds have scored 9 goals in their last 5 visits to Arsenal!  Over gets the call in this one!

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-125) - Columbus at San Jose, Tuesday at 10:07 PM ET - Alex Nedeljkovic was the first goalie off the ice at the morning skate for the Sharks today and that is an indication he will be starting in goal for this one tonight.  News also came out this morning that Jet Greaves, as was expected, is the likely starter for the Blue Jackets in this one tonight.  The Sharks Nedeljkovic was in goal in relief of a struggling Yaroslav Askarov in San Jose's 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay and he allowed 4 goals on just 16 shots!  This is nothing new as his last 3 appearances have seen Nedeljkovic allow 11 goals on 55 shots for an ugly .800 save percentage since mid-December.  The Jackets Greaves had been faring much better but has been streaky this season.  He started hot and then went cold and then got hot again.  This is quite normal for a guy not used to being an everyday NHL starter and he could be starting another tough run.  He has allowed at least 3 goals in 2 of his last 3 appearances and was in goal for the Blue Jackets 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend.  In terms of the trending of these two clubs in the offensive zone, Columbus has scored 3.7 goals per game in their last 6 games and compiled a solid 4-1-1 record during this stretch.  San Jose has scored 4.3 goals per game in going 3-1 in their last 4 games.  Including all scoring, including wins via OT goals, this Sharks team has tallied an average of 4 goals in their last 10 games.  We like them to score well here on Greaves and the Blue Jackets but again the weakness of San Jose is in goal and defensively.  In fact, the Sharks have allowed 29 goals in their last 6 games on home ice!  Yes even at home the Sharks just can't stop teams.  This one should be a back and forth exciting thriller as another key component is special teams.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack for power plays this season and yet both are near the bottom of the league on the penalty kill.  Over gets the call for a Top Game Tuesday in San Jose

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, 7:40pm ET - The Celtics are coming off an extended road trip on the West coast and will have 1 day rest heading into this contest with the Bulls. Boston put up 146 points against the Clippers but had an exceptional shooting night at 55% overall, 47% from Deep. Boston’s defense has allowed 116 or less points in 8 of their last ten games. The Bulls are going to have a hard team reaching 110+ points this game for a couple of reasons. One, we just mention how well the Celtics defense is playing, and two, the Bulls offense is struggling. Chicago is down 3 starters right now and it’s played a major role in their offense which has scored 110 or less in 4 of their last six games. In that 6-game stretch the Bulls has an eFG% of 51.3%, the 5th lowest percentage in the NBA. Chicago has the 3rd worst offensive rating over that same 6 game period. On the plus side for the Bulls, their defense has been significantly better in recent games with the 12th best defensive rating since December 23rd. In the four meetings between these two teams a year ago, three stayed well below this number. We are on the UNDER in this one.

#873/874 ASA PLAY ON Under 156.5 Points – Nebraska vs Ohio St, Monday at 6:30 PM ET - This total is historically high for these 2 Big 10 rivals. Prior to this, the previous 10 meetings only one total was set above 150 and that was 152. The average total set in this series since 2020 is 144.5. Both teams have high level defenses with Nebraska ranking 18th in defensive efficiency, 21st in eFG% allowed, and 45th in 3 point FG% allowed. OSU ranks 75th, 67th and 38th in those 3 key defensive metrics. Both defenses also make teams work a long time to get shots ranking in the top 50 in opponent’s average possession length. We don’t expect many points from the FT line in this game as Nebraska really limits fouling with opponents scoring only 15% of their points from the charity stripe this year (top 20) and teams are making only 10 FT’s per game vs the Huskers (top 10). On the other end they don’t get to the FT line very often (300th in % of points from the stripe) and 270th in FT’s made per game. Neither team is fast paced with both ranking in the 160’s for adjusted tempo. Our projections have this total at 149 and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points here so we’ll grab the Under.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43.5 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1pm ET - This is a division game so even though neither team has anything to play for, we still expect the offenses to put up points against the other team’s defense. In watching film from last week’s games one thing is very apparent. The amount of poor tackling and lack of effort defensively is rampant with teams that have nothing to play for. The Falcons head coach Morris is coaching for his job, QB Cousins is making a statement to teams that he can still play and RB Robinson has a shot at some attainable records. The Saints were eliminated a long time ago but have continued to play well with their future QB Tyler Shough who has thrown for 2,125 yards with 9/5 TD/INT ratio while completing 70% of his passes. Last week the Saints put up 423 total yards against the Titans at 8.5YPP. New Orleans has scored 20, 29 and 34 points in the past three games and is averaging 6.1YPP in that same span. The Falcons offense has come alive with Cousins under center in recent weeks with 29, 26 and 27 points in the past three weeks. Atlanta is also averaging 6.1YPP in that 3-game stretch and let’s not forget, one of those games was against a Rams defense that is one of the best in the league. The Saints defense has been playing well in recent games, but the numbers have come against some league’s worst offenses (Titans, Jets, Panthers). The Falcons defense has given up 24 plus points in 8 of their last ten games and haven’t been able to stop anyone of late. Three of the last four meetings in Atlanta has resulted in 50+ points. With both defenses potentially on vacation already and two offenses still clicking, we expect a high scoring game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, 9:40pm ET - These two teams have been stellar on the defensive side of the court but the offenses have been even better of late. For the season the Celtics rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency ratings at 1.218 points per possession. The Clippers are 12-21 SU on the season but have the 11th best oEFF at 1.160PPP. In their last 5-games the Clippers oEFF is off the charts at 1.325PPP which is best in the league. Boston stays consistent with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating over the last 5 games at 1.229PPP. The Celtics have the 7th best eFG% in the NBA at 56%, the Clippers are 11th at 55.2%. Both teams are shooting better than their season numbers over their last 5-games too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will finish 11-points less than an average NBA game this season but with how these offenses are playing this one gets to that 232 range.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, 7pm ET - Both teams come into this game having played last night and will be unrested. Each is also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. In recent years, teams playing without rest have favored the UNDER and tonight we have two teams involved in that trend. Last night the Bulls didn’t play at their typical high rate but scored 121 points as a result of shooting 50% from the field overall and 34% from Deep. Charlotte also put up 121 points against the Bucks last night, and like the Bulls, had a very good shooting night of 49% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Chicago’s pace of play for the season is 2nd fastest in the league at 102.7 but in their most recent 5 games that number has dipped slightly to 101.5. The Bulls are also shorthanded, so depth becomes a concern. Charlotte is 23rd in pace of play at 98.9 possessions per game and has been slower yet in their last 5 games at 96.2. Given the difficult scheduling situation that both teams are in, we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

ASA NBA play on OVER 242.5 Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET - The Jazz have put up two consecutive great offensive games against defenses that rate better than Boston’s. Utah scored 131 against the Pistons who rate 2nd in defensive efficiency this season and 127 against the Spurs who are 6th. The Celtics rank 15th in dEFF. We also know the Jazz are going to give up a big number defensively as they allow the most points per game at 127.1ppg and have the 2nd worst dEFF at 1.225PPP. The Jazz routinely give up 130 plus points and the Celtics, who take and make a high volume of 3’s should get to 130+. Boston is 10th in 3PT% at 36.4% and 3rd in 3PT attempts at 42.8 per game. The Jazz rank 27th in 3PT% defense and 30th in 3-pointers made per game. The Jazz will also get their fair share of 3-pointers in this game as they rank 8th in attempts and 9th in makes from beyond the arc. Boston’s defense can be exploited from beyond the arc as they rank 24th in 3PT%, 22nd in 3PT makes and 23rd in attempts allowed. We see both teams getting to 120 or more in this one which will cash this OVER in the low 240’s.

#245/246 ASA PLAY ON Over 61 Points – Tennessee vs Illinois, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - Tennessee is missing some starters in this game but far more on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looks like they’ll have most of their key players in tact for this game including starting QB Aguilar who had a stellar season throwing for 3500 yards and 24 TD’s. He’ll be missing starting WR Brazell, but other than that, the offense looks good. That’s bad news for the Illini D as the Vols were as potent as they come on offense ranking 6th in the nation in total offense while scoring an average of 41 PPG. This team put up 30+ points in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Illinois defense wasn’t great this season (54th in total D) and when they tried to defend elite offenses, they stunk. They faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (OSU, Indiana, and USC) and allowed an average of 43 PPG in those games. The Vols should get plenty of chances here as they play very fast (6th in seconds per play) and they average 72 plays per game. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s weakness is absolutely their defense that ranks 85th in YPG allowed and while allowing 29 PPG. If we take out their non-conference weakling opponents (ETSU, Syracuse, UAB, and New Mexico St), the Vols allowed 34 PPG and all but 1 of their SEC opponents scored 30+. They will also be missing a bunch of key guys on that side of the ball. Illinois can score if pushed, and they will be pushed in this one. They average 29 PPG and put up 30+ in half of those games. They were shut down by 2 top 5 defenses, OSU and Indiana, and if we subtract those games the Illini are averaging 33 PPG. Starting QB Altmyer is in on this game (2800 yards passing and 21 TDs) and he should have a field day vs a UT defense that ranked 115th in YPG allowed through the air and 124th in opponent completion percentage. Weather looks decent for this game in Nashville with cool temps (40’s) but very light winds. This looks like a shootout.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams have gone Over in 4 straight games as their offense continues to be a juggernaut. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 7 of their last 9 games and they topped 40 in 3 of those. They lead the NFL in total offense, YPP, and scoring. The Rams have scored a TD on over 35% of their offensive possessions which is the best in the NFL. Atlanta’s D ranks outside the top 20 in opponent’s scoring and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Birds have faced 5 top 10 scoring offenses this year and allowed over 25 PPG in those contests. The Rams will put up points in this one as they do on almost everyone. Can Atlanta score enough to push this over the total? Yes. The Falcons have been solid on offense scoring at least 23 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Kirk Cousins has settled in at QB and had a nice run throwing 5 TD’s in his last 2 games leading the Falcons to 29 and 26 points. Cousins has faced LA Ram head coach McVay 3 times in his career and his teams have averaged 27 PPG in those games. He has a solid running game (8th in the NFL) as well to take the pressure off him. The LA D has allowed at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and with the Falcons offense humming, they’ll do enough on offense to push this Over the total. Perfect conditions in the Dome in Atlanta and this looks like a high scoring game.

#241/242 ASA PLAY ON Under 60 Points – Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern, Monday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Sun Belt Rivals met already this season with Ga Southern jumping out to a 19-3 halftime lead and holding only to win 25-23. That total in that game was set at 61 and this one is set just 1.5 to 2 points lower which isn’t enough of an adjustment in our opinion. Lots of key offensive players that played in the first match up won’t be around for this one. Especially on the App State side where 70% of the offensive production in that first game won’t be playing in this bowl game. App State’s top 2 QB’s, Kohl and Swann, who combined for 3,000 passing yards and 22 TD’s are in the transfer portal. The Mountaineers are left with a redshirt freshman and a true freshman who combined to throw for 160 yards this season in mop up duty. The Mountaineers will also be without top WR’s Barnes and Dozier who combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 TD’s. ASU does have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman playing so look for them to lean on the run in this game with inexperienced QB’s and some key WR weapons out. Georgia Southern is in a bit better shape offensively but they could be without their #1 weapon RB Arnold who is injured and didn’t play in the regular season finale. Arnold had 140 total yards in their meeting with App State this year. This is a big time rivalry game so these teams know each other very well. Neither defense has very good numbers this season but they’ll come to play here and they know the opposing offensive schemes well. The weather in Birmingham for this game will be less than ideal for scoring with windchills in the 30’s and 15+ MPH winds. Only 2 of the last 12 meetings between these 2 have topped 60 points and we don’t expect them to get there in this game.

#429/430 ASA PLAY ON Over 52.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - 2 explosive offenses and not so great defenses should lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Let’s start with the Niners offense. They haven’t punted since November! Yes you read that correctly. In their last 2 games they’ve scored 85 points on 18 offensive possessions. That includes 10 TD’s, 5 FG’s, a missed FG, an interception, and a fumble. Since QB Purdy returned from an injury, the Niners have gone 5-0 both SU and ATS and they’ve averaged 34.4 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks 25th in total D, 28th in YPP allowed, and the Bears are giving up 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th in the NFL). The SF offense should continue their big time offensive success in this game. On the defensive side, the 49ers have not been great as of late. They have allowed 51 points in their last 2 games and forced only 4 total punts in those 2 games. Those games were vs Tennessee (31st in total offense & 30th in scoring) and Indy with Philip Rivers playing in his first game at QB directly off the couch. Now they are facing a Chicago offense that is averaging 26 PPG (9th in the NFL) and they lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Bears also average 14 plays per game of more than 10 yards which is the most in the NFL. Looks like perfect weather in Santa Clara on Sunday night and we should be plenty of offensive snaps with both teams in the top 10 in seconds per play. This looks like a game where both offenses will have to “keep up” with the other and a shootout is very likely.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232 Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, 5pm ET - Dallas started the season out by playing great defense but we are starting to see a regression for the Mavs on that end of the court. For the season the Mavericks allow 1.140-points per possession which ranks 9th best in the league. In their last 5 games though, the Mavs are allowing 1.176PPP, which ranks 20th. The Kings defense has been atrocious all season long ranking 27th in dEFF allowing 1.208PPP. We know this will be a high possession game with the Mavericks ranking 6th in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game. The Kings like to get up and down too ranking 9th in possessions at 100.9. Both teams are shooting over 46% and the offense for the Kings has been better recently with 3 of their last four games topping 125 points. Dallas has been scoring lately too with 116 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. With a high possession game and two defenses that aren’t playing well at the moment this should be a high scoring game.

#411/412 ASA PLAY ON Under 39.5 Points – Houston Texans vs LA Chargers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This one has the makings of a playoff type game and we like the Under with 2 high level defensive teams. Houston needs a win and they are then locked into the playoffs. The Chargers are already in but still fighting for the AFC West title with the Denver Broncos. These defenses are ranked 1st (Houston) and 3rd in the NFL in total defense and both our top 8 DVOA defenses. LA has allowed 19 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 including vs Dallas (top 5 scoring offense) and KC when Mahomes was still under center. The Houston defense leads the NFL allowing only 16 PPG and they’ve held all but 2 teams to 21 points or less this season. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring and the explosive plays have not been there for either team. The Chargers have gained 10 or more yards on less than 17% of their plays over the past six weeks, 29th in the league. Houston has gained 10 or more yards on 17.5% of their plays which is 27th in the league. LA has run the ball a lot since QB Herbert injured his hand a few weeks ago. In the last 3 games they’ve run the ball on almost 55% of their offensive snaps. Houston passes the ball more often, however they are playing into the 6th best pass defense in the NFL as the Chargers allow only 179 YPG passing. Both offenses have struggled to convert red zone trips into TD’s with both in the bottom 6 in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (TD only). Lastly, both offenses are slow paced with LA ranking 31st in seconds per play and Houston ranking 22nd. Defenses dominate here and we’re on the Under

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The oddsmakers are suggesting this game is going to be less than an average NBA game this season and our model is projecting a game closer to average. NBA games this season are averaging 233.2 total points per game. Based on the efficiency data for both teams our model says 230.3. The Bucks are the 4th best FG% team in the NBA, 3rd best 3PT% team at 39.7%. Memphis allows opponents to hit 46.7% (14th) of their FG attempts on the year and 36.6% from deep (21st). The Grizzlies are still without their rim protector in Zach Edey which limits their defense on the backend and rebounding. Memphis has slipped in team rebounding with Edey out, especially defensively, dropping to 10th in the league without him, 4th best with him. Memphis is not a great shooting team on the season at 45.4% overall, 35.1% from the 3-point line but they make up for it by playing at a higher pace of play (8th fastest). The Bucks continue to be bad defensively under Doc Rivers, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency this season, 15th in opponents FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. We don’t see either team expending a lot of energy defensively tonight and both teams should knock down enough shots to go OVER this number.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30pm ET - The Detroit defense, specifically their secondary, has been atrocious the past few weeks and it’s led to the Lions allowing 27 or more points in 5 straight games, 30+ in three of those. Minnesota had found a groove with their offense in two straight games putting up 31 and 34 points against the Commanders and Cowboys, then QB McCarthy got hurt last week and they managed 16 against the Giants. The bright spot for Minnesota is the fact that QB Brosmer looked much better last week than he did in his previous start. Brosmer was 7/9 for 52 yards and didn’t turn the football over. Let’s not forget, the first meeting between these two teams resulted in 51 total points and then QB McCarthy wasn’t playing well and went 14/25 for 143 yards. Detroit is going to score in this one with their offense that averages 379 total yards per game (3rd) at 6.3YPP (2nd). The Lions are scoring 30.1ppg on the season which is 2nd most in the league. The Lions with Dan Campbell/Goff typically respond well off a loss and with their season on life support we expect a solid offensive showing in this one. These two rivals have combined for 50 or more points in 7 of the last eight meetings. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - Both of these teams are coming off games last night which impacts this total, plus they both have Christmas Day games looming. We mentioned the lack of rest tonight as these teams combined have gone OVER the total in 26 of 39 games dating back to the start of last season when playing the second night of a B2B. We also don’t expect either team to expend a ton of energy on the defensive end of the court with big games on Thursday. That should lead to a higher scoring game much like their last meeting in early December when they combined for 252 total points. Dallas is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and get their scoring from volume. The Nuggets play slow but are the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.255-points per possession so they score with efficiency. Dallas isn’t a great shooting team on the season but they’ve been much better in their last 5 games (w/Anthony Davis in the lineup) hitting 48.1% from the field. Denver has an average defense and allows opponents to hit 46.6% from the field on the season. In their last 5 games their FG% defense has been worse yet. We know Denver is going to make shots no matter who they play as they are the #1 FG% team in the league, 3rd best from beyond the arc. Bet OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - These same two teams met in San Antonio last week and produced 213 total points with the Spurs winning 119-94. The first matter we need to address is the Wizards defense, which is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.238-points per possession on the season. They have been better lately though, allowing 1.199PPP in their last 5 games. On the subject of defense, the young Spurs are figuring it out and are one of the best units in the NBA and only getting better. San Antonio put the clamps on the Thunder in the Cup semi-finals and played at a very high level. On the season the Spurs are 5th in dEFF allowing 1.130PPP. In their last 5 games that number dips to 1.088PPP allowed per game. San Antonio is average in terms of pace of play this season, the Wizards are 9th fastest but they are continually slowing as the season has progressed. In their last 5 games the Wiz average 98.2 possessions per game which is 23rd slowest in the league. The Spurs are highly efficient on the offensive end; the Wizards are not. We see this game playing out very similarly to last Thursday’s game and even if the Spurs play way above expectations offensively and score 130 there is still a good chance the Wizards don’t reach 100. San Antonio has two HUGE games on deck against the Thunder and will be happy to win and go home. Bet UNDER.

English Premier League #200193/200194 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (+105) – Manchester United at Aston Villa, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Quick one here as this match goes in a couple hours but we like the market activity we are seeing here and will not hesitate to get involved. 7 of the last 8 Aston Villa matches have totaled 3 or more goals! 7 of the last 9 Manchester United matches have totaled at least 3 goals! 7 of the last 9 meetings between these clubs saw decent scoring. In fact, those 7 matches averaged 4 goals and we like our chances here of another one reaching at least the 3 goal mark. That would be a push of course but 4 or more is definitely the most probable outcome here per our computer math model. Over gets the call in this one!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 10:10pm ET - This is a quick rematch game from Thursday night as these same two teams met in Portland on Thursday. The Blazers won that game 134-133 in OT. At the end of regulation these two teams had combined for 230 total points which obviously stays under the total. Both teams shot unusually well in that game with the Kings hitting 51% from the field, the Blazers shot 48%. On the season the Blazers shoot 44.6% (29th), the Kings are at 46.6% from the floor as a team which ranks 18th in the NBA. Granted, both teams are bad defensively, but neither are great offensively with the Blazers 16th in offensive efficiency, the Kings are 29th. Both teams are missing key offensive weapons, especially the Kings who are without Sabonis and LaVine for tonight’s contest. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but prior to that had topped 120 points just twice in their last 8 games. Sacramento’s offense has really struggled in their last 9 games prior to Thursday with 8 of nine below 120 and in 6 of those they didn’t break 110. In this quick turnaround rematch we don’t see these two teams getting to 240. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - Wow! If you are a ‘value’ bettor, you have come to the right place on Thursday night. The Raptors and Bucks have already met twice this season and the oddsmakers set O/U’s of 235.5 and 237.5 respectively and now we get a number of 220. Much of that has to do with the Raptors offense that has scored 113 or less in four games in a row and a Bucks team that just scored 82 against the Nets. The rest factor in tonight’s game suggests a higher scoring game as teams with long breaks tend to score more points. The Raptors are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% and should see the ball go in against a Bucks defense that is 17th in FG% defense allowing 47.3%. Conversely, the Bucks shoot at the 4th best rate in the league at 49.1%, the Raptors are closer to average in FG% allowed defense at 46.4%. Milwaukee is the #1 rated 3PT% shooting team in the league; the Raptors are 13th so we don’t need as many possessions in this game to get OVER this number. Remember, the league average in the NBA this season is 232.2ppg so it’s not like we are asking these two teams to score a ridiculously high point total. 9 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than tonight’s O/U.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10pm ET - The Thunder look to rebound after their upset loss in Cup play to the Spurs and we expect an offensive explosion in this one. OKC is putting up an average of 123.1ppg on the season, 2nd most in the NBA. They play at a moderate pace (14th) but are highly efficient, ranking 4th in oEFF. Not to mention they will be facing a Clippers defense that is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.197-points per possession. The Clippers are struggling this season but still average 111.3ppg on 47% shooting. OKC should knock down plenty of 3’s in this game with the 6th best 3PT% offense facing the 30th ranked Clipper 3PT% defense. Even without James Harden tonight the Clippers should get to 100+ points and we are confident the Thunder will get to 120+. We are on the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234.5 San Antonio Spurs vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Cup Finals are here! Who really cares other than us degenerate gamblers. Kidding aside, this should be a very entertaining NBA game with the up-and-coming Spurs and the veteran Knicks, in what should be a very competitive game. We are going to grab the value and bet UNDER. This line opened significantly lower than where it currently stands and our model agrees with what Vegas set originally and projects 227 total points being scored. These two teams are top 14 in defensive efficiency ratings overall and have some very good metrics within those overall numbers. The Knicks allow the 4th fewest points in the paint, the Spurs the 7th lowest. San Antonio allows the 2nd fewest fast break points per game, the Knicks 12th fewest. The Spurs give up the 3rd fewest 2nd chance points per game, New York gives up the 8th fewest. We make that point because those numbers suggest nothing will be easy or cheap in this one. The Spurs defense was outstanding against the Thunder, holding the best offense in the NBA to 109 total points. NY is coming off a higher scoring game against the Magic but shot incredibly well at 61% (average 48% on the season). In two meetings between these two teams last season they produced 231 and 224 total points. With the Cup on the line tonight we expect both teams to ramp up their defensive intensity and limit scoring opportunities. Bet the UNDER.

#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The forecast in KC calls for temps in the teens with windchills possibly in the single digits at game time. Not ideal for scoring to say the least. LA QB Herbert is dealing with a broken hand and last week’s game plan vs Philadelphia was very conservative with 38 runs and just 26 pass attempts. We expect to see the same type of offense in this game. The Chargers averaged just 3.9 YPP vs the Eagles and that included a 60 yard pass play. Take that out and LA was closer to 3.0 YPP. KC played host to Houston and they struggled as well offensively averaging only 4.3 YPP while putting up only 10 points. The Chiefs defense was stellar holding Houston to 4.1 YPP and in the 2nd half the Texans had 8 offensive possessions and 5 of those were 3 and outs. KC has now gone Under the total in 5 straight games and they are 9-4 to the Under this season. We expect both defensive lines to control this game as the offensive lines are in flux. The Chargers Oline is just bad with the 30th impact grade and KC has injuries up front with their staring RT, RG, and LT all out. LA is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and the Chiefs rank middle of the pack so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in PPG allowed. LA has allowed 1 team to top 20 points in their last 6 games and KC’s D has been lights out at home allowing just 14.9 PPG this season. Let’s grab the Under in this one.

#453/454 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Army vs Navy, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Low total as per usual in these match ups but we still like the Under. The Under in the Army vs Navy game has cashed 17 of the last 19 years and they’ve reached 40 points only twice in the last 12 years. One of those games was last season with Navy winning 31-13 for 44 total points. However, the 2 teams combined for only 563 total yards which would normally equate to around 37 total points based on the CFB average yards per point numbers. They only rank 108 total plays which isn’t surprising as both run the ball almost exclusively and they both play at a very slow pace. They rank 1st and 4th in rush attempts per game and both are in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game. They rank 134th and 132nd in tempo this season so we expect another low possession game. Defending the option attack can be tough for many teams that don’t see it throughout the year but these teams practice against it every day, thus they defend it well. That’s a main reason we’ve seen such low scoring games in this series and in all military academy game series. In fact, if we include games between Army, Navy, and Air Force, the Unders have gone 54-16-4! Another grinder between these 2 arch rivals on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on OVER 240.5 Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - We will get plenty of possessions in this game for what should be a higher scoring affair. The Jazz play at the 5th fastest rate in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 10th. Memphis should see an increase in their pace of play with the return of PG Ja Morant who will look to push tempo. The Grizzlies are average in terms of FG% defense allowing 47% on the season, 21st in 3PT% defense at 36.9%. The Jazz are worse defensively allowing 49% shooting by opponents overall and 37.5% from Deep (24th). Last season in all 4 games one of these two teams scored 122 or more points and in two of the four meetings we had 243 and 250 total points. The added rest is going to lead to a higher scoring game here as the Jazz are 4-0 OVER their last four when playing with 4+ days rest, the Grizzlies are 3-1 in that same situation. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET - These same two teams met on this court in late November and produced 242 total points. The Thunder shot 48% for the game, the Suns hit 46% both right around each teams season average. The game was played at a slightly faster rate than an average NBA game with 179 total field goal attempts. OKC is 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.216-points per possession, the Suns are 11th at 1.168PPP. The Thunder in particular have been insanely good on the offensive end of the court with a 1.254PPP average in their last 5 games. Phoenix isn’t a great overall shooting team but they are very good from deep. The Suns are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. If the Thunder have a weakness defensively it’s their 3PT% D as they rank 21st in the NBA allowing 36.9%. OKC is shooting 49.7% and should convert plenty of open looks against a Suns defense that is 20th in opponents FG% allowed. The last 3 meetings between these two teams has been high scoring with all 3 OVERS cashing. Expect the same in this one.

#145/146 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs LA Chargers at 8:15 PM ET - We look for both teams to lean on their running game in this one which should shorten this game. They are already 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (27th and 31st in seconds per play) so the possessions will be limited. The Eagles run the ball on almost 47% of snaps which is 7th in the NFL. LAC QB Herbert had surgery this week on a broken hand so they will most likely be careful with him. Starting RB Hampton also returns for LA (hasn’t played since early October) which could lend itself to more attempts in the running game. On top of that, Philly was shredded on the ground last week vs Chicago (allowed almost 300 yards rushing) and they rank 24th vs the run this season. We expect the Eagle D to come in with a chip on their shoulder here as well after that performance vs Chicago. They have held 6 straight opponents to 24 points or less that that includes games vs Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, and Detroit, all top 10 scoring offenses. The LA defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in total D and they don’t give up big plays allowing just 2.4 plays of 20+ yards per game (best in the NFL). They’ve allowed 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and during that stretch they lead the NFL in defensive 3rd down conversion rate (allowing just 26%). 6 of the last 9 MNF games have gone Under and we’ll call for another low scoring game.

#71/72 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Tampa Bay at Toronto, Monday at 7:37 PM ET - Battle of back-up goalies here and we like the over! The Lightning are currently without Andrei Vasilevskiy and that means Jonas Johannson is getting the start here and the Maple Leafs are without Joseph Woll so Dennis Hildeby is getting the start here. Toronto is off a 2-1 shootout loss but this followed 3 straight wins and the Leafs scored an average of 5.3 goals in those 3 games! Maple Leafs home games have totaled 7 or more goals in 9 of the last 12 games! Toronto won all 4 games with Tampa Bay last season and all 4 of those games totaled at least 7 goals. The Lightning have lost 3 in a row but 2 of those were at home and prior to the lone road loss in the bunch, Tampa Bay had been red hot on the road and scoring plenty of goals. The Bolts had won 7 of their last 8 road games and scored an average of 4.4 goals in those 8 games! We look for TB to resume that goal-scoring success on the road again here and we also see the Maple Leafs coming up big in the goal-scoring department as they look to bounce back off the loss. With the situational factors plus the goal-tending injuries impacting this match-up, Over gets the call for a Top Game Monday in Toronto

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Under 40.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This total is set very low but we still expect this one to stay Under. These 2 rivals met a few weeks ago with Denver winning that game 10-7 and neither team averaged 4.0 YPP. Las Vegas only had 188 total yards in the game while Denver had 220. It was a slow paced game with Denver running 55 total plays and Las Vegas running 52. To put that in perspective, the Steelers average the fewest plays per game in the NFL at 55. There were almost as many punts (15) as first downs (20) in that game. As bad as the Raiders are on offense ranking 30th in YPG, YPP, and 31st in scoring, their defense is solid. They rank 10th in YPP allowed and 39% of possessions facing this LV D have failed to gain a first down (3rd best in the NFL). The Denver offense is average at best ranking 14th in offensive DVOA and they’ve only played 3 games this year vs teams ranked in the top 12 in YPP allowed and scored 10, 15, and 20 points in those games. The Las Vegas offense has been poor all season ranking 31st in DVOA and they’ve topped 20 points once in the last 8 games. They’ve been held to 14 or less in 5 of their last 8. They are facing one of the elite D’s in the NFL as Denver allows 4.8 YPP (1st) and 18 PPG (4th). As bad as they’ve been on the season, they’ve been even worse as of late averaging just 212 YPG and 11.7 PPG over their last 4. Another grinder in the AFC West leads to an Under.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These arch rivals tend to play low scoring games and we expect that will be the case again on Sunday. Only 1 of the last 10 meetings has topped 42 points and the average total points scored over those 10 games in just 34. We don’t anticipate many possessions in this game as neither team plays up tempo with the Steelers ranking dead last in the NFL in plays per game and the Ravens rank 29th in that stat. Baltimore QB Jackson is still not 100% and the offense hasn’t been all that great since his return. In his 4 starts since getting back from injury, the Ravens have averaged only 314 YPG and Jackson has been a threat on the ground averaging only 21 YPG rushing on barely 3 YPC during that stretch. Since his return Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA passing offense. This offense just isn’t the same without his threat to run. Defensively this team has turned a corner. After allowing 32 PPG over their first 6 games, they have since allowed just 16.5 PPG over their last 6 games. Pittsburgh’s offense is one of the least explosive in the NFL. Over the last 6 games they rank 29th in EPA passing offense and for the season only 17% of their plays average 10 or more yards (27th in the NFL). They average less than 10 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards which is only ahead of the Cleveland Browns. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 games and with huge division deciding who sits in 1st place, we look for a low scoring, defensive battle.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Seattle has been held under 26 points only once in their last 6 games and that was vs a very good LA Rams defense. They are averaging 29 PPG on the season which is 4th in the NFL. Last week they scored 26 vs Minnesota but they held the Vikings scoreless so there was no need to score more than that. The Seattle offense wasn’t pushed to score at all last week. We think they’ll be pushed to score this week vs Atlanta. Teams that come off shutout wins tend to go Over the following week as we usually get a lower total than we should in that case. In fact, NFL road teams who pitched a home shutout the previous week are 13-1 to the Over since 2017. Atlanta averages 23 PPG at home this season and they’ve put up at least 23 points in 5 straight games. They started the season going Under the Total in 6 of their first 7 games but the Falcons have since gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games. QB Kirk Cousins is getting comfortable and has been solid the last 2 weeks in his starting role with 433 yards passing and completing over 66% of his passes. The Falcons have scored 48 points in those 2 Cousins starts. The Atlanta defense was solid early in the year but they’ve now allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only team not reaching that number being the Saints who are 30th in scoring. Seattle games are averaging 47 total points this season while Atlanta games are averaging 43 total points but in home games the Falcons are averaging 49 total points. Perfect conditions for scoring in the dome and we like the Over.

ASA NBA play OVER 228 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is below an average NBA game but our model is projecting a total around the league average of 234. Toronto has some solid defensive numbers with the 5th best dEFF rating allowing 1.124-points per possession. The Lakers though don’t defend ranking 18th in dEFF and they’ve been worse yet with the return of LeBron, allowing 1.193PPP (24th). Offensively the Lakers have the 7th highest points per possession at 1.196PPP, the Raptors rank 13th at 1.170PPP. In terms of pace we should see a regular volume of attempts and tempo in this game with the Raptors 14th in pace, the Lakers are 19th. Toronto was having some scoring issues but seemed to find their stroke in their most recent game against the Blazers, putting up 121 points on 53% shooting. There is no reason to expect a dip in their shooting tonight against a Lakers defense that allows 48.3% on the season (24th). The Raptors by the way are 4th in the NBA in team FG% at 49.2%. On that note, do you know who the best shooting team in the NBA is? You guessed it, the Lakers at 51.3%. The last time these teams met on this court they produced 256 total points. It won’t be that high Thursday, but it will get over 230.

English Premier League #200061/200062 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – Aston Villa at Brighton, Wednesday at 2:30 et - Brighton has scored multiple goals in 5 of their last 6 in Premier League matches. That run includes 3 in a row at home too so we trust the hosts to get the job done here and we also would not be surprised to see Aston Villa match them goal for goal in this one. Aston Villa is off a 1-0 win but this was on the heels of 4 straight matches (2 Premier League, 2 Europa League) that saw Aston Villa score multiple goals in all 4 games! 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams (1 was a friendly) have reached a total of at least 3 goals and all signs are pointing to that pattern continuing here. Over gets the call in this one!

English Premier League #200045/200046 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-105) – Everton at Bournemouth, Tuesday at 2:30 et - Bournemouth is off a match that proved to them that no lead is safe. The Cherries just blew a 2-0 lead at Sunderland and lost 3-2. That type of match, when fresh in the minds of a club, is the type of result that will often bring about an aggressive and relentless attacking approach in the next game. That is what we expect from Bournemouth here and they also have the added confidence of winning each of the last 5 meetings between these clubs (whether meeting in EPL or other tournaments) and the Cherries scored an average of 2.2 goals in the 5 victories. Don't count out Everton either in the goal-scoring department here! Everton is off a 4-1 loss and will be wanting to respond off that ugly loss and they realize that a defensive approach here is not going to work against the attacking plans that Bournemouth has for this one. Everton must fight fire with fire so to speak and they have scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches. As for the hosts here, 4 straight Cherries matches (and 7 of last 8) have not only been overs, all of the overs totaled at least 4 goals! We are well aware of the fact that Everton trends toward lower-scoring matches but Bournemouth is going to dictate the pace and flow in this one! Everton can also take advantage of the fact the Cherries backline is without a key defender (Marcos Senesi - suspension) as he is likely going to be replaced by 18-year old Veljko Milosavljevic. Over gets the call here!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - This line opened considerably higher than where it currently stands but according to our model there is still value in the UNDER. In fact our baseline model is projecting 224.5 total points, the advanced model has 229.5. The Bucks offense has stalled in recent weeks with scoring outputs of 110 or less in 6 of ten games. They have scored 116 or less in 9 of ten. Milwaukee plays at the 20th slowest pace in the NBA for the season but have been significantly slower in their last 5-games at 96.3 possessions per game (25th). The Wiz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA averaging just 1.089 points per possession (27th out of 30 teams). They do play at the 4th highest rate in the league, but much like the Bucks have been playing slower in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is averaging 115.5ppg on the season with the 19th rated offensive efficiency in the NBA at 1.151PPP. The Wizards have scored 115 or less in 7 of their last ten games. An average NBA game this season is averaging 233.4ppg but the way these offenses are playing this game doesn’t get close to being average. Bet UNDER!

English Premier League #200029/200030 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Liverpool at West Ham United, Sunday at 9:05 am et - Liverpool seemed to be back on track with a couple wins and yet they continue to be leaky at the back and that has led to another slump.  The Reds will continue allowing goals here too as West Ham United has enough firepower, especially on their home pitch, to get the job done in the goal-scoring department in this one.  The issue for the Hammers will be trying to stop a Liverpool attack that is potent plus will be ready to respond after 3 straight losses to PSV, Nottingham and Manchester City.  Liverpool has scored 24 goals in the last 7 meetings with West Ham.  Also, all 7 of those matches totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the last 6 have totaled at least 4 goals!  The Hammers are undefeated in their last 3 matches and have scored 8 goals in those 3 games.  You can see why we fully expect the goals to be flying here in this one!  Over gets the call here! 

English Premier League #200005/200006 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Leeds United at Manchester City, Saturday at 10 am et - Leeds United is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Though the visitors should find the back of the net in this one, they are massive underdogs for a reason and we project a 3-1 type of blowout here. Manchester City is known for responding big when off a disappointing result and this is particularly true when at home. With Manchester City off B2B losses - one in Champions League and one in Premier League - they are sure to be in 'attack mode' here at home versus Leeds. Manchester City has averaged scoring 4 goals in the last 4 meetings with Leeds and note that Leeds United has scored a goal in each of the last two meetings and we expect a solid result here. Leeds has scored 10 goals in the last 8 matches but also allowed 2.1 goals per match in the last 7 matches and now, like we said, are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Prior to the B2B losses, Manchester City had scored at least 3 goals in 4 straight matches and we expect them to respond here with another effort along the lines of those big wins!

French Ligue 1 - #203237/203238 ASA PLAY ON OVER 2.5 goals (-140) Rennes at Metz, Friday at 2:45 ET - The last five times these clubs have squared off the game reached a total of at least 3 goals all 5 times.  In fact, those 5 games averaged a crazy 5 goals apiece.  When these clubs meet the goals fly and we expect that to be the case once again here.  Metz enters this match on a high-scoring run in which they have scored 2 goals in 4 straight games!  Rennes has scored 16 goals in their last 7 games and also 8 of their last 10 games reached a total of at least 3 goals scored.  Based on current trending of both clubs as well as the match-up history when these teams meet, this one should easily eclipse the total of 2.5 goals and we'll lay the price here with no hesitation as we love this total at 2.5 goals.  Our computer math model has this one most likely finishing in the 2-1 or 2-2 range. Over gets the call in this one!

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 48.5 Points - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Thursday at 1 PM ET - The markets are telling us the play in this game is UNDER the total. Even with public money flying in on this Over, the oddsmakers are adjusting the number down slightly. At Sharp Books we are seeing money come in on the UNDER. On the short week, early kickoff in a MASSIVE divisional game, we expect the defenses to outshine the offenses. Earlier this season these two teams met in perfect conditions in Green Bay with an O/U of 48.5 and they produced 40 total points. Green Bay netted 266 total yards, the Lions just 246. Detroit’s offense is averaging 6.3 YPP (4th best) but the Packers defense allows just 4.8 YPP, 2nd lowest number in the NFL. Green Bay’s offense has been ‘average’ in most cases this season 13th total yards per game, 13th YPP, 13th scoring. The Lions defense has similar numbers compared to the Packers offensive standings and allow just 22.1 PPG (12th fewest). The Packers offense has slipped with the loss of TE Kraft and their one big offensive showing in the past month came against a bad Giants defense. The Lions have a few big offensive games on their resume, but they’ve come against Washington and the Giants, again, bad defenses and nothing compared to Green Bay’s. The Packers defense ranks 4th in total yards per game given up, 2nd in YPP, give up the 6th fewest rushing yards and 5th lowest passing yards per game. We are on the UNDER in this early Thanksgiving Day schedule.

UEFA Europa League: #224405/224406 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 (-145) FC Midtjylltand at Roma, Thursday at 12:45 pm et – Roma is hosting FC Midtjylland here and the hosts have a very experienced manager (Gian Piero Gasperini) and are off to a strong start in Italian Serie A action this season.  As for the visitors, they have been scoring well in their Denmark action as well as Europa League matches and have averaged 2.7 goals scored in their last 10 games!  Roma has scored 5 goals in their last 3 games as a host and we don't see them being slowed down here at home by this Denmark side.  Roma has scored multiple goals in 3 straight games and also 4 of their last 5 plus we also expect FC Midtjylland to continue their scoring surge.  Our computer math model shows a strong probability of a match totaling 4 to 5 goals here and even if it lands on 3 that would still be a win for us here. Excellent line value and we will take the Over in this one.

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - New York Rangers at Carolina, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We are well aware that the Rangers have struggled to score goals for much of this season but the key here is that Hurricanes goalie Pyotr Kochetkov (lower body) is out and Frederik Andersen has been struggling badly!  The veteran netminder is having a rough start to the season and has lost 4 straight starts with an unsightly .854 save percentage during this run.  In fact, on the season the veteran netminder has allowed at least 3 goals in all but 2 of his dozen games!  The point being that this is a great game for the Rangers offense to get back on track and, they have shockingly been better on the road in comparison with at home this season.  New York has averaged scoring 3 goals in their 14 road games this season!  As for Carolina, they love playing at home and consistently score well here.  In fact, 8 of the 9 Hurricanes home games have totaled at least 7 goals and we love this spot for another over!  The Canes have been waiting for this one after losing 4-1 over the weekend at Buffalo.  Back home and ready to push the pace, this game should feature plenty of scoring chances.  The Hurricanes have averaged scoring 4 goals at home this season plus have allowed at least 3 goals in 8 of 9 games on home ice this season.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability based on the simulations. Over is the play Wednesday in Carolina

Champions League #224241/224242 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (+105) – Monaco at Pafos, Wednesday at 12:45 pm ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here.  Pafos is hosting and they are well aware of the fact that Monaco is having issues defensively and that will put the hosts in attack mode from the outset in this one.  However, Monaco is the overall stronger side and is favored on the road here for a reason.  Monaco has allowed 4 goals in back to back matches plus has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 4 in French Ligue 1 action.  The concerns defensively are genuine for this club.  However, Monaco can score well and Pafos is from the weaker Cyprus League.  At times Pafos can frustrate opponents but usually the stronger side gets their goal-scoring going and we saw this in Champions League action when Bayern Munich put up 5 goals on this Pafos club!  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and not having to lay any juice with the over at 3 goals! 

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - With a win here, Western Michigan guarantees themselves a spot in the MAC Championship game. They may still get in with a loss depending on how the tie breakers play out. Eastern Michigan would like nothing better than to potentially spoil that situation. We should get big effort across the board in this game. WMU’s defense is outstanding. They rank 20th in the country in total defense and YPP allowed while giving up only 13.6 PPG in MAC play. They have had only 1 opponent in conference play top 21 points and only 1 of their games in MAC play topped 45 total points. The Bronco offense likes to run, run, and run some more. They have attempted only 23 passes combined their last 2 games and they average 42 rush attempts per game (5th most in the country). That eats clock and shortens the game. EMU’s defensive numbers for the season are poor but in conference play they haven’t been terrible. They are allowing 5.5 YPP in league play and over their last 2 games combined they’ve allowed less than 5.0 YPP. The Eagles offense is middle of the pack in MAC games averaging 350 YPG and 23 PPG. EMU has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and have gotten to 50 total points only once in conference action. WMU games are averaging 37 total points in MAC action and EMU games are averaging 47 total points. This total is set too high. This one shapes up as a defensive battle between these 2 conference / state rivals. Let’s take the Under.

Champions League #224201/224202 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Royale Union SG at Galatasaray, Tuesday at 12:45 pm ET - Galatasaray is so strong at home plus their Champions League overall performance has been fantastic.  Royale Union SG is certainly dangerous enough on the attack but their defense has proven to be vulnerable against tough competition and this trip to Galatasaray is no easy task.  We would not be surprised if we see multiple goals from each club in this one.  Royale Union SG has scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last 6 games.  In Champions League action they have allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games!  Galatasaray is off of a 3-2 win in Turkish Super Lig action plus they have scored 3 goals in their last two matches in Champions League action!  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this one and only having to lay a minimal price to have the over at 3 goals!  

ASA play on Utah @ Golden State Under 239½ - Model sees just 229.4 points, thanks to Utah's middling 114.9 oEFF against GSW's stingy 113.8 dEFF, at a deliberate 100.9 combined pace (below league avg of 100.5). Last season in 3 meetings the UNDER cashed twice. Utah's road woes (last 10 away unders 7-3) seal the low-scoring trap. Jazz also 6-10 UNDER their last 16 when playing without rest.

ASA play on Houston @ Phoenix Over 226½ - Our model projects 235.2 total, fueled by Houston's blistering 124.6 oEFF (elite offense) clashing with Phoenix's 118.7 oEFF in a combined pace of ~98.4 possessions. Both teams rank top-10 in scoring efficiency this season , with Houston averaging 122.9 PPG and Suns 119.0 . Houston on 5-2 OVER streak in their last seven games. This game has extra excitement with the return of Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Bet OVER.

ASA play on UNDER 50 Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15pm ET - Last week the Panthers put up 30-points against the Falcons but that was an outlier based on their previous 4 games when they scored 7, 16, 9 and 13 points. The 49ers scored 41 points but had just 281 total yards of offense. Carolina is 22nd in total yards per game at 314, 26th in yards per play at 5.2 and 28th in scoring at 18.8ppg. The Panthers want to run the football (7th most rush attempts per game) which is great for us UNDER bettors as it typically shortens games. They could have a tough time though as that’s the strength of the 49ers defense which allows 104 rushing yards per game (12th) and 4.1 yards per rush (13th). San Francisco hasn’t lived up to expectations defensively, but they are still average in points allowed at 23 per game. The Niners seem to move the ball offensively with the 10th most total yards per game average this season (350yds) at 5.6 YPP (14th) but it hasn’t translated to a ton of points as they average 23.7ppg (15th). The Panther’s defense is near average in a lot of defensive categories including total YPG (15th) allowed, and PPG allowed (13th). With both teams coming off higher scoring games last week the oddsmakers had to adjust the numbers this week expecting public money on the OVER. That’s great for us though as we’ll grab the added value with UNDER.

ASA play on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ - Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP's anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF - bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago's 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans' injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201837/201838 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+125) – Sevilla at Espanyol, Monday at 3:00 ET - Great setup for goals here.  Sevilla is off a 1-0 win but this low-scoring battle was on the heels of 5 straight games (and 8 of the last 9) totaling 3 or more goals!  Those 8 matches averaged 3.8 goals per game and this is a club that will not back down on the road either.  The situation is ideal for goals as Espanyol is off a rare home shutout loss.  Espanyol had averaged scoring 1.8 goals in the 4 home matches prior to that one.  The hosts will be putting extra emphasis on the attack here as a result and we expect solid success for them in that regard.  The issue for Espanyol is in protecting their own goal as they have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of the last 10 matches.  The last 7 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3.1 goals.  Another item of note is that Sevilla will be without a starting defender, Jose Angel Carmona, as he is suspended for this one.  Our computer math model shows 2-1 as the most likely result here and a 2-2 draw also is not far behind on the prediction model. This is another reason we are looking for 3 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact that solid plus money is available on the Over 2.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here for a Top Game.

#253/254 ASA PLAY ON Over 49 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Always important to keep a close eye on the weather this time of year and it looks perfect in KC on Sunday. Temps in the 50’s, no precipitation, and very light winds for this one. The Chiefs have been very good offensively at home this season. In their last 4 home games they have put up 37, 30, 31, and 28 points. Patrick Mahomes should have a field day vs this Indianapolis defense that ranks 19th in total defense and 25th vs the pass. KC is 2nd in the NFL in points per possession at home and they score points on 49% of their offensive possessions (2nd in the NFL). Who is 1st in the NFL in that stat? The Colts who have scored points on almost 57% of their possessions this season. Indy has scored at least 29 points in 8 of their 10 games this season. In the 2 games where they did not reach that point total, the Colts had 9 total turnovers taking away many chances to score by limiting their total possessions without a turnover to just 14 in those 2 games. We’re looking at 2 top 10 offenses (Indy #1 and KC #7) and 2 top 5 passing teams (Colts #3 and KC #5). We think this game gets well into the 50’s.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We love the added value in this number now as this line opened at 228 and has since moved down to the current 223. NBA games average 234 total points per game in raw numbers. Efficiency numbers have NBA games averaging 232.4ppg. Obviously this O/U is significantly lower than what an ‘average’ NBA game should be. The Pistons are 14th in pace of play this season, the Bucks are 18th. The Bucks offensive efficiency is trending down currently without Giannis in the lineup, but the Pistons are trending up. In Detroit's last 5 games they have the 8th best oEFF in the league, scoring 120+ in 4 of five. Not to mention, the Pistons should score here against this Bucks D that has slipped to 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.172-points per possession. These two Central Division rivals combined for more than 223 points in all four meetings a year ago, all overs. Granted, two of those meetings went to OT, but they were Over this number at the end of regulation in one of them and had 222 in the other at the end of the 4th Q. These two teams both rank top 10 in FG% shooting so it won’t take many possessions to get OVER this number.

#181/182 ASA PLAY ON Over 59 Points - USC vs Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams have played in some not so great weather as of late but Saturday afternoon in Eugene looks perfect with temps in the 50’s, light winds, and no precipitation. Last week USC put up 26 points on a top 10 Iowa defense with record rains falling in LA. For Oregon, 3 games ago they faced Wisconsin here in terrible weather and then went to Iowa and had the same situation. One thing we know we’re getting here is high level offenses. Both are top 12 nationally in total offense and when it comes to YPP they rank 2nd and 3rd in the country. Oregon has scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games and 2 of the games they did not, vs Wisconsin and Iowa, were in terrible weather as we mentioned above. USC has also scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games and one where they did not was last week vs Iowa in bad weather. We know the offenses are very good but how about the defenses? Oregon has great defensive stats this season however they’ve played a terrible slate of offensive teams this year. In their 9 games vs FBS teams, the Ducks have faced 7 offenses ranked 96th or lower in total offense and 6 of those were outside the top 100. The only top 40 offense they’ve played was Indiana who put up 30 points. USC’s defense does not rank highly sitting at 73rd in YPP allowed. They’re in a similar spot facing only 1 top 40 offense this year, Notre Dame, who scored 34 points. Our power ratings have this total set closer to 65 so we’ll take the value and go OVER in this one.

English Premier League #200101/200102 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Bournemouth vs West Ham, Saturday at 10 am et - 5 of the last 6 Bournemouth matches have not only totaled at least 3 goals, each one reached at least the 4-goal mark!  We only need 3 to be a winner here and we like the value of that and will lay the price on this over 2.5 goals.  West Ham United is running hot with B2B wins in which they scored 3 goals in each victory and this followed a 2-1 loss.  In other words, the Hammers have had 3 straight matches reach at least the 3-goal mark.  In terms of match-up history, Bournemouth seeks revenge for a 2-0 loss in the Summer Series prior to the regular season starting.  The last meeting between these clubs in league action was in April and it was a 2-2 draw.  Both clubs have scored in each of their last 4 Premier League meetings and only 1 draw in the last 9 matches for the visitors and 2 draws in the last 9 matches for the hosts here. In other words, high odds on both clubs scoring and high odds on this one NOT ending in a draw!  Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in laying the moderate price here with the over at 2.5 goals! 

#43/44 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Ottawa at Anaheim, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Anaheim is in a back to back after the 4-3 win over Boston last night.  This will be Petr Mrazek in the crease most likely in this back to back spot.  Mrazek is off of a rare good start as he allowed 14 goals in his first 3 starts this season and we expect his struggles to quickly resume!  The Ducks have played in 20 games already and he has only 4 starts so he is not used often.  We expect the Senators to take advantage.  They are off a shutout loss at home against LA this past weekend and have been waiting all week to get back on the ice and get the bad taste out of their mouth after being blanked on home ice!  Ottawa has played 8 road games this season.  The last two were 3-2 overtime games but this followed the first 6 road games all totaling 7 or more goals and those 6 away games averaged 9 goals!  Off a 1-0 loss, Ottawa's emphasis will be on the offensive end in this one and we expect the Senators to pepper Mrazek with shots on goal.  At the same time, the Senators issue will be in their own end where they have allowed an average of 4 goals in regulation time of their 8 road games!  The Ducks have a showdown with Vegas on deck and these two teams are at the top of the Pacific Division so far this season.  The last time Anaheim had the Golden Knights on deck the game totaled 12 goals.  We expect plenty of scoring in this spot again given the situational aspects with Ducks in B2B and Senators off a 1-0 home shutout loss.  Anaheim and Ottawa both rank in the top half of the league for power play percentage. Both teams and, in particular, the Senators have struggled badly on the penalty kill. Anaheim is bad on the kill and the Sens are even worse! Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Thursday in Anaheim

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233.5 Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Kings will push tempo with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the NBA. Sacramento has capable scorers and shoots well enough at 46.7% overall, and 37.2% from deep (11th). Memphis has also been one of the league's better defenses in past seasons but they’ve slipped to 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The last two meetings between these two teams produced 254 and 271 total points. It’s not too much to ask to get a 240’s final here.

ASAwins NBA play on: Over 228.5 Knicks @ Mavericks – 9:30pm ET - Last season these two met twice and the games exploded for 243 and 241 total points. That wasn’t a fluke; both teams still love to get up and down. Dallas plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA (102.9) while the Knicks sit right around league average (100.3). More importantly, New York brings the 3rd-best offense in the league (121.1 points per 100 possessions) to town tonight. Dallas ranks dead-last in offensive efficiency on the season (105.0), but they’ve woken up lately, posting 107.1 over their last 5. The bigger story is Dallas’ defense, which looks elite on paper (3rd-best DefRtg), but has been torched recently: 116 to Milwaukee, 123 to Phoenix, 133 to the Clippers, 133 to Portland, and 120 to Minnesota. Every one of those opponents is worse offensively than these Knicks. New York has also been living in the Over lately — their last 6 straight games have all totaled at least 228 points. League-wide scoring is sitting at ~234 points per game this season, making this total look suspiciously low.

UNDER 6.5 Goals - Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres - Tonight's matchup in Buffalo screams low-scoring affair, making UNDER 6.5 goals a sharp play. The Flames' offense is an absolute wasteland—dead last in the NHL at 2.10 goals per game and a dismal 7.1% shooting percentage, turning prime chances into airballs. Buffalo isn't lighting it up either, ranking 23rd with 2.89 GF/G and 24th in shot percentage at 10.4%, so don't expect a shootout from either side. Calgary's netminder Devin Cooley has been lights-out in relief, posting a stellar 1.75 GAA and .935 SV% across three appearances, though his 0-2-1 record underscores the Flames' scoring drought. Facing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who's started four games for the Sabres with a 3.02 GAA and .883 SV%, but Buffalo's back end has leaked goals—except those blowups came against elite offenses like Colorado (6 GA in a 6-3 loss) and Carolina. Against lesser attacks, they've been stingier. Add that seven of Calgary's last nine games have finished with 6 or fewer total goals, and this has all the makings of a 2-1 grinder.

#669/670 ASA PLAY ON Under 158 Points – Cleveland State vs Valparaiso, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Our projections have this game landing right around 150 points so value to the Under. These 2 played last season and the total was set at 149 with CSU winning 75-67 for 142 total points. The teams combined to shoot just over 46% in the game on 67 total possessions. So they shot fairly well but still barely cracked 140 points. Toledo wants to play fast but Valpo will do everything in their power to slow them down and make this a half court game. All of Valparaiso’s games with the exception of Kentucky, have been under 70 total possessions including 2 games at 63 possessions. Besides Kentucky, they’ve held their other 3 opponents to 63 or fewer points. The problem has been the offense. This Valpo team can’t shoot. They rank 358th in FG% and 290th in 3 point FG%. They have yet to top 68 points on the season. CSU’s defense has been poor but 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced have offenses ranked in the top 135 efficiency wise and 2 of those in the top 80. The one lower level offense they’ve faced was Radford and they held them to 1.00 PPP. The game was higher scoring (169) because Radford is a very fast paced team as well. That game had 82 possessions. Offensively, Cleveland State hasn’t been a great shooting team. They rank 242nd in FG% and while they’ve shot the 3 well (37%), the Valpo defense is allowing just 32% from beyond the arc. In a game where we project the possessions to be in the low 70’s, these 2 offenses will have to be very efficient to get to this number. Take the Under.

ASAwins NHL play on: Utah Mammoth @ San Jose Sharks – Over 6.5 (-110) - The over thesis here pivots on advanced metrics revealing San Jose's goaltending woes beyond raw stats. While SJS boasts a respectable .912 team SV% (12th), their expected SV% (xSV%) ranks near the bottom at ~.885 —highlighting vulnerability to high-danger shots and shot quality (29th in GSAx). This inflates their 3.26 GA/GP (23rd), especially at home where they play at the NHL's 4th-fastest pace (32.1 shots allowed/GP). Utah counters with 3.16 GPG (15th) and a 553 shot volume (12th) vs. SJS's 23rd-ranked PK% (77.4%). Expected starters Vitek Vanecek (UTA, .875 SV% - has allowed 4 goals last two starts) and Yaroslav Askarov (SJS, .903 SV% but 4+ goals in 4/10 starts) add volatility, with SJS home games averaging 6.2GPG.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225405/225406 ASA PLAY ON OVER 6 goals (-105) Liechtenstein at Belgium, Tuesday at 2:45 ET - Belgium is a massive favorite here as they are favored by 5.5 goals on the goal line. We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and remember they won the prior meeting 6-0 at Liechtenstein and now are at home for this one. Also, Belgium should be ready to go strong here as their last match was a disappointing draw in a match they were a massive -625 money line favorite. Now back at home and facing an even weaker foe, Belgium is going to cut loose here and pile up goals. The result should be 7 or more finding the back of the net here and the Over gets the call in this one!

ASAwins NHL play on OVER 6.5 goal Edmonton at Buffalo, 7pm ET - Tonight’s Edmonton at Buffalo game is the clearest high-event spot on the slate, with the model projecting 7.2 total goals and finding an 8% edge on the Over 6.5 (currently -120 juice). Both teams rank top-8 in pace and expected goals over the last 10 games, Edmonton’s power play remains lethal on the road, and Buffalo’s goaltending has been leaky against high-danger chances. With the total shaded to the over at -20 already, the model still sees strong value pushing past 6.5 in what should be an up-tempo, mistake-filled affair in KeyBank Center. Edmonton on 5-1 run to the OVER, Buffalo OVER in 4 straight.

#451/452 ASA PLAY ON Over 47 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (@ Madrid, Spain) - This game is being played in Spain at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium which is home to the Real Madrid Soccer Club. Field conditions are said to be very good and the weather looks decent with temps in the 50’s, light winds, and a small chance of light precipitation possible. The Miami offense is starting to get in gear with 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Last week they topped Buffalo 30-13 while averaging 7.0 YPP. The Fins should continue that offensive success vs a Washington defense that is in a free fall. The Commanders have allowed an average of 36 PPG over their last 5 games. During that stretch they are allowing 3.44 points per opponent drive which ranks them 31st in the NFL. The Miami defense has allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their 10 games this season. Last week they surprisingly held Buffalo to 10 points but that was very misleading. The Bills averaged almost 6 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (2 in Miami territory including an interception in the endzone) and they were shut out on downs twice. The Washington offense has been a bit up and down with Mariota at QB but in his 4 starts this year the Commanders have reached at least 22 points in 3 of those games. The defenses are the weaknesses of both teams ranking 23rd and 24th in defensive DVOA, 24th and 29th in PPG allowed, and 26th and 31st in YPP allowed. Let’s go Over in this one.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 234.5 Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8pm ET - Denver (124.6 oEFF) and Minnesota (120.6 oEFF) are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Denver is 3rd in eFG% shooting at 57.6%, the Wolves are 2nd at 58.6%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get a higher scoring output. Minnesota is 14th in pace of play, the Nuggets are 24th. We also like the consistency from both teams when it comes to scoring in the paint with the Nuggets averaging 56.9PIP (3rd), the Wolves are 10th at 53PIP. Last 3 meetings in Minnesota: 241, 237, 235 total points. Expect another high scoring affair tonight. Our model is projecting 244.3 total points. OVER 234.5 is the call.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 61.5 Points – Marshall vs Georgia State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Both these teams could easily get into the 30’s facing really poor defenses. Georgia State’s defense allows 42 PPG and ranks 135th out of 136 teams in scoring D. Marshall allows 32 PPG and ranks 120th. They rank 124th and 128th in YPP allowed. In their last 4 games, Georgia State has allowed 41, 41, 38, and 40 points and 3 of those offenses are ranked lower than Marshall’s offense. The Herd put up at least 40 points in each of their first 4 Sun Belt games and over the last 2 weeks they scored 27 and 23 vs Coastal Carolina and James Madison. In their 27 point performance vs Coastal they had 432 yards but 5 turnovers and were shut out on downs twice. Needless to say, they could have easily pushed 40 points in that game. Last week vs JMU they scored 23 points but put up over 400 yards on one of the top defenses in the country (8th in total defense). It was the most yardage JMU has allowed in a game this season. Marshall’s D has allowed at least 28 points in 5 of their 6 conference games including 35+ in 4 of those games. Georgia State doesn’t have great season long offensive numbers but they are trending up scoring 24, 31, and 27 points over their last 3 games. We love the match ups here as well. Georgia State loves to sling it averaging almost 40 pass attempts per game (14th nationally) and they are facing a Marshall D that ranks 120th vs the pass. On the other side of the ball, Marshall is 16th nationally averaging 211 YPG rushing and facing a Ga State defense that ranks 129th vs the rush. The offenses should dominate here in a very high scoring game.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225297/225298 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (+105) Austria at Cyprus, Saturday at Noon ET - Austria is a big favorite here as they are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line.  We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and Cyprus might make the net ripple too but will not be able to stop a club that outclasses them.  Austria will be ready to go strong here as they only won by a 1-0 count when these clubs met in September.  Additionally, Austria is fired up here as they enter off a 1-0 loss to Romania.  Prior to that Austria had scored 19 goals in 5 matches in this competition.  Granted 10 goals came in a beating of San Marino but they did score 9 goals in the other 4 games.  This club is plenty dangerous on the attack.  Cyprus is outclassed here but they at least have been scoring goals recently so they bring some confidence into this one plus they are at home for this one.  Cyprus has scored multiple goals in 3 straight matches and should get at least 1 goal here as well!  Getting to at least  3-1 shows high probability per our computer math modeling simulations.  Over gets the call in this one!    

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 222.5 Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - Brooklyn is the NBA's worst defense (by a wide margin) (126.5 dEFF, 59.6% opp eFG%, 59.1 pts in paint allowed) and faces an Orlando attack that just dropped 124 points with 6 double-digit scorers vs NYK. Even without Banchero, the Magic's balance + average oEFF (115.3) should push 125–130 in this spot. The Magic should get big games from Franz Wagner (22.5ppg) and Desmond Bane (15.5ppg). Nets play slow but only need ~100 to clear — their 111.3 oEFF is enough against Orlando's middling dEFF. This series has seen the OVER cash in 4 of the last five meetings. OVER 222.5 is the call.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, 9:10pm ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in Utah on Tuesday in which they gave up 152 total points. We are betting they play much better defense tonight in Phoenix off that embarrassing showing. The Suns are coming off a game in Dallas last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. We expect a regression in the Suns shooting as they’ve been on fire of late, hitting over 40% from deep in their last five games combined. The current league average in the NBA is closer to 35% from the 3-point line and Indiana has the 11th best eFG% D in the NBA.. We can also rely on the Pacers struggling offensively. Indiana has been hit hard with injuries and it’s shown on the offensive end of the court as the Pacers are the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to Offensive Efficiency. Indiana is averaging less than 110ppg and have the lowest eFG% in the NBA at 46.3%. Indiana is on a 5-1 UNDER run in their last six games, the Suns are 4-1 UNDER in their last five. One of our models is projecting 226.4 total points in this game, the other says 224.9. We agree and will bet UNDER here.