ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Sabres are on a Western Canada road swing and playing for the 4th time in 6 nights. Buffalo enters this game having lost 3 straight. The Flames scheduling situation is much better as they are on home ice and playing for the first time since Sunday! Calgary enters this game having won 7 of their past 8 games. The Flames have scored an average of 5 goals per game during this red hot 8-game stretch. Of course that is part of the reason that Calgary is a 2 to 1 money line favorite on home ice for this one. That said, the way to get value out of a situation like this is with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Flames bettors get a plus money return of approximately +120 with Calgary. The Sabres have scored an average of just 2 goals per game in their last 9 games. Seeing the numbers above it is no wonder as to why our math modeling is projecting a dominating 5-2 home win for the Flames in this one. Calgary is one of the top teams in the NHL and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. The Sabres had a hot streak earlier this season that was quite exciting for Buffalo of course. However, reality is now setting in as normalcy has returned for Buffalo. The Sabres have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Buffalo's last 11 losses have come by an average margin of 2.2 goals per game and another loss by a multiple-goal margin is in the forecast here. The Flames last 9 wins have come by an average margin of 2.7 goals per game. In road games with an O/U of 6 or more goals, the Sabres have lost 14 of their last 17 games. The Flames have won 5 of 6 games this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and Calgary has won 10 of 13 games this season when coming off a divisional game. We predict this one turns into a home blowout. Laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money return with Calgary is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State  +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice.  They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire.  Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points.  Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here.  Getting points will be valuable.  ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points.  Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference.  We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion.  They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night.  The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting.  Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight.  ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more.  We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one.  That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency).  They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games.  We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers.  We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week.  Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck.  Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday.  They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight.  On top of that, this team struggles on the road.  They have played just 2 true road games  this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points.  They were FAVORED in both.  They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots.  Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games.  They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts.  A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend.  In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1.  They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost.  The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home.  Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion.  We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes.  Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record.  The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win.  We expect they’ll play very well in this game.  The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland.  Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league.  Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season.  The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home.  We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook.  That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team.  The Hawks did come from 7 points  down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits.  The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season.  Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU.  The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark.  Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday.  The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games.  PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion.  Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end.  They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton.  Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle.  First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime.  Not once.  On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds.  Yes you read that correctly.  Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation.  We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close).  Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year.  They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games.  They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots!  The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that.  Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points.  They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again.  The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games.  Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles.  G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year.  Hoyas in this one outright.

NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it.  First of all, the situation is terrible for LA.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast.  Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks.  Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England.  HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well.  Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close.  He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick.  Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage.  Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier.  They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier.  Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked.  This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one.  Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center.  The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so.  Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically.  He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year.  Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games.  He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year.  Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG.  Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields.  In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less.  The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24.  They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG.  Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season.  They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less.  The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC.  The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent.  LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week.  In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week.  The Patriots get the home win and cover.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams.  Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th.  Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run.  That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas.  The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle.  Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC.  With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game.  LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning.  Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans.  They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close.  That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game.   If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team.  In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32.  They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG.  Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG.  This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers.  You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers.  Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points.  Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%).  Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one).  The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch.  On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands.  LA’s following is not great for home games.  Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.

ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS).  Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion.  They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday.  It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half.  Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game.  It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record).  The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12.  We expect an all out effort on Saturday.  ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday.  The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game.  Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points.  In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal).  Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today.  The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record.   The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Take the points with Stanford. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here.  Not only a loss but an embarrassing one.  The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite.  Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%.  Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers.  Really tough to overcome those two situations.  Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back.  They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road.  The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee.  They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd.  For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13.  Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia.  The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally).  The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage).  Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint.  The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here.  Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago.  We feel this one could turn into a blowout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET

Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now.  After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation.  That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team.  Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU.  They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara.  Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team.  They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175.  They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally).  That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot.  Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition.  They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation.  Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally.  Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss.  You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday.  It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer.  It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins.  Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule.  Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire.  Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech.  This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season.  Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well.  Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas).  So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on.  Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF  THE WEEK

St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule.  They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home.  At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team.  Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points.  This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason.  They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire.  That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home.  The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season.  Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games.  Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA.  They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record.  St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month.  They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home.  The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team.  They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month.  St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting.  The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer.  They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here.  The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home.  Now this line sits near a pick-em.  While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year.  We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday.  Take St Bonaventure at home.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday.  For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation.  ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons.  On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60.  It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury.  Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up.  They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12).  In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots.  They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81.  The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man.  It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not.  Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday.  Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining.  We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday.  We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday.  The value is with Baylor here.  They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State.  Now they are getting points.  The Bears pull the upset here.

ASA 9Star play on: #588 Sacramento Kings -5 over Orlando Magic, 10PM ET – We like the under-rated Sacramento Kings at home minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic tonight. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games against the Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers, Lakers (twice), Clippers and Thunder in seven of their last ten games. The other three opponents in that 10-game stretch are the Pelicans, Grizzlies and T’Wolves who aren’t cupcakes. Now Sac-Town steps WAY down to face a 17-22 SU Magic team that has struggled on the road. Twelve of Orlando’s seventeen wins this season have come against the East, making them 5-12 SU against the West. In their last six road games the Magic are 1-5 SU win the lone win coming against the Bulls. The other five losses have come by -10, -17, -25, -10 and -25 points. Sacramento has quietly put together a 19-20 SU record on the season and sit just a game-and-a-half out of the Playoff picture. The Kings are 12-17 against the West but 7-3 SU versus the East. The overall metrics don’t give the Kings much of an advantage here but when you factor in the strength of schedule (Kings 4th, Magic 25th) it shows the discrepancy between the two teams. We’ll call for a double-digit win by Sacramento.

ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.

ASA Play on: #574 Phoenix Suns +2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8PM ET – We don’t expect Charlotte to have much left in their tank after a game last night in Denver and the Suns will crack the win column at home. The Hornets defense has been bad of late as they’ve given up 122 and 123 their last two games and over that in four of their last six games. Phoenix has lost five straight games, but it came against some of the best teams in the league. Now with a legitimate chance to win at home against a mid-tier Eastern Conference team they’ll get it done. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Hornets are on a 0-4 ATS streak on the road and are just 1-5 ATS their last six meetings in Phoenix. The Suns get a much-needed home win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74.  On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road.  Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st.  They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis.  They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120.  If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100.  Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State.  Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points.  They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November.  They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral).  Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season.  Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses.  Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points.  We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home.  The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58.  Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers.  The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%).  The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games.  We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late.  On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home.  The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month.  They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303).  Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1.  Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team.  The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21.  On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win.  Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough.  The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home.  After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday.  They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win.  The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games.  At home they allow only 39% for the season.  This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team.  Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now.  We feel SDSU is just the opposite.  Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena.  These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.

ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Talk about a team flying under the radar.  San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home.  Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California.  Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday.  Tight losses vs very good teams.  UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year.  Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia.  The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense).  They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG.  The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season.  The Gaels are down this year.  They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team.  The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season).  They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games.  St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team.  San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely.  The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center.  They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well.  This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.

ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5 goals +$155: The Flames are favored on the money line in the -175 range for good reason tonight. Of course they are expected to win but it is hard to find value in laying those types of prices. With that being said, we like the value available by utilizing the puck line and laying the 1.5 goals Wednesday. 17 of Calgary's 24 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more goals and this includes each of their last 3 victories. As for the Red Wings, they have lost 9 of their last 10 games. So, as you can see, a loss is likely for Detroit and the value is in forecasting that loss to come by a big margin. With the Red Wings having allowed 19 goals in their last 4 games, a blowout defeat on home ice would not at all be a surprise. The Flames have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 8 road games. Last season's two match-ups were decided by a total of 9 goals. With the Flames playing this game with revenge (courtesy of an 8-2 loss at Detroit in their most recent visit), look for Calgary to respond with a huge effort tonight and win this one by a multiple goal margin.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994.  Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43.  It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%.  After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards.  No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team.  Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday.  While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight.  Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here.  They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS.  The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty.  They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th.  On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here.  McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with.  He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer.  Either way, not a great situation.  Mourning is still in concussion protocol.  Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points.  Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

Love this spot for St Johns.  We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog.  We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would.  They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home.  They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road).  St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points.  The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%.  Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak.  They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd!  They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73.  They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight.  Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78.  They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country.  Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY 9* ON LSU (-) over UCF, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - There is a lot of focus on defensive personnel that are out for this game for LSU. So much focus in fact that many are forgetting about the most important injury situation relating to this game. That of course is the fact that UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is out with that devastating knee injury he suffered in November. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule than the Knights have this season. Additionally, the few times when Central Florida has stepped up in level of opposition, they have not been overly impressive. The four toughest match-ups that UCF had were facing Memphis twice, Cincinnati once, and Temple once. Note that the Owls put up 670 yards on the Knights! That is the same Temple team that got smoked in the bowls by Duke. As for the win over the Bearcats, the scoreboard showed a 25 point edge but note that UCF only won the yardage battle by 23 yards! Certainly a bit of a phony final and the two games against Memphis saw the Knights have to rally in BOTH games. UCF rallied to beat the Tigers by 1 point in October. Then, in the AAC Championship game, the final score makes it look like the Knights dominated but Central Florida was down huge at the half and the game was still a 1-point game with under 7 minutes to go in the contest. Keep in mind that was against a Memphis team that, like Temple, also lost their bowl game and the Tigers were out-gained by 151 yards by Wake Forest in that bowl defeat. The point is that LSU is, by far, a tougher opponent than UCF has faced all year and this would be true even if the ENTIRE Tigers defense was made up of their 2nd stringers! LSU comes from the powerful SEC of course and the Tigers only losses came against Florida (blasted Michigan in bowl game), Alabama (blasted Oklahoma in CFB Playoff semi-final), and Texas A & M (an epic game decided in 7 overtimes). In our opinion, the Knights (with a back-up) quarterback will struggle to hang around in this game and by the second half the Tigers will wear them down and eventually win this one by a margin of at least two touchdowns. What is the motivation for LSU? UCF is 12-0 on the season. They won't be undefeated after the Tigers are done with them. LSU is the play.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Northwestern (+) over Utah, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Utes are expected to have QB Tyler Huntley (broken collarbone) back for this game but there is certain to be some rust as he has not seen game action since November 3rd. Utah has been held to 147 passing yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games and that is a key concern here because their running game has not been the same since losing running back Zach Moss for the season with an ankle injury. The Utes averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in their last 3 games. Northwestern wrapped up the season with strong running as they totaled over 400 yards in their final two games and averaged 5.9 yards per carry! The Wildcats defense had a poor game versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. However, Northwestern entered that game having allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 prior games! Utah lost 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship and the Utes entered that game having allowed 25 points or more in 4 of their 6 prior games. You can see why we like having the TD underdog here when you see how these teams have performed in the latter half of the season. Speaking of underdog value, if you had played the underdog in all 12 of Northwestern's regular season games (prior to Big Ten Championship) you would not have lost a single bet as the dog was 11-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats dozen regular season games. Northwestern's outright upset wins included defeating Wisconsin and winning at Iowa and at Michigan State this season. We are forecasting another upset here and will gladly grab the points being offered. Northwestern is the play.

ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Oregon, Monday at 3:00 PM ET - We really like the defensive and coaching advantage in this game. MSU head man Mark Dantonio is a very good coach and with extra time to prepare he has been money. The Spartans are 5-1 both SU & ATS their last 6 bowl games with their only loss & non-cover coming against Alabama. Oregon’s Mario Cristobal is in his 2nd season in Eugene and while he is a very good recruiter, we’re not wild about him as a head coach. He had only 2 winning seasons (8-5 & 7-6) in his 6 seasons as head coach @ Florida International from 2007 to 2012. His two bowl appearances with FIU were not very impressive as the slipped by Toledo 34-32 as a 2-point favorite and the Rockets outgained FIU by 130 yards in that game (FIU had 89 yard kick return for TD by now Indy WR TY Hilton). The following year Cristobal took FIU to another bowl and lost by 10 to Marshall as a 4-point favorite. Last year, his first with Oregon, the Ducks went into their bowl game vs Boise as a 7-point favorite and lost by 10. Cristobal, unlike Dantonio, has not shown the ability to have his team ready for bowl games losing in 2 of his 3 post-season appearances as a favorite. MSU defensively has been great this year. They rank #1 nationally vs the rush allowing just 81 YPG on 2.7 YPC. The Ducks rely very heavily on the run averaging 41 carries per game (35th nationally in rushing attempts per game). Using a successful running game to set up QB Justin Herbert and the passing game probably won’t be an option here for the Ducks. MSU should keep them one dimensional. The Spartan offense definitely had their problems this season. However, injuries had a lot to do with that. QB Brian Lewerke had a shoulder injury down the stretch and was not anywhere near 100% as he split time with Rocky Lombardi. Lewerke has had time to rest his shoulder and it’s much better than it has been as he gets the start here. Starting RB LJ Scott was injured much of the season and he is healthy for this game. Sparty has had a month off to tweak their offense and now with some key contributors back, we expect them to play much better. They are facing an Oregon defense that allowed 31 PPG vs the 6 bowl teams they faced this year. By comparison, the MSU defense allowed 21 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this year. Sparty played the much tougher schedule this year facing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and even a very good Utah State team in the non-conference slate. The Pac 12 was down again this year and they continue to flame out in bowl games. This year the Pac 12 is already 1-2 SU in bowls but 0-3 ATS. The conference is now 2-14 ATS their last 16 bowl appearances. The Pac 12 is just 2-10 SU their last 12 bowl games dating back to last season. We like Michigan State to take this game outright.

ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.

ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West.  A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard.  We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2.  These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes.  KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game.  While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense.  It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland.  Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season.  The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals.  The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing.  They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season.  Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league.  They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games.  That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs.  This one will get ugly.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here.  We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game.  Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. 

ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion.  They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year.  More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late.  Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out.  Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here.  Even if he does, he won’t be 100%.  Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game.  The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries.  As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon.  We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record.  This team is talented.  They  return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9.  They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG.  They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home.  Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team.  Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th.  That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots.  The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s.  Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half.  The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both.  On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39!  Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot.  The Broncos win outright at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.

ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings.  The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.

#242 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Purdue (+) over Auburn, Friday at 1:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL - We know Purdue is thrilled to be here. They will be well prepared and very motivated to take on their SEC foe. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who is very well liked by the players, gave this team an extra boost by turning down the Louisville job (Brohm’s alma mater) after the season to stay with the Boilers. Positive energy abounds around this program and we expect them to play very well on Friday. Auburn? Maybe not so much. The Tigers had much higher aspirations this year but struggled to get to a 7-5 record. They were in the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl the last 2 seasons and now they are relegated to the Music City Bowl. Their coach Gus Malzahn is just 1-4 SU in bowl games as this team often underachieves in the post-season. On top of that, Malzahn was on the hot seat for much of the season but will now remain as head coach which we’re not sure is a great thing. His offensive coordinator has already left for the same position under Les Miles at Kansas. Their starting QB Jarrett Stidham will play but has already declared for the draft so we’re not sure he’ll be 100% focused on this one. Since the opening weekend when the Tigers slipped by Washington 21-16, this team has beaten a grand total of ONE team that was bowl eligible. That was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, a game Auburn was outgained by 123 yards AND trailed 24-14 with less than 6:00 remaining in the game. This team was outgained in every SEC game but two this year (outgained Ole Miss by 50 & Tennessee by 37). Purdue has great momentum after starting the season 0-3 and fighting their way back and into a bowl game. Four of their six losses came by 4 points or less and only once this season were they beaten badly and the game was out of reach. Unlike Malzahn, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has been a very good bowl coach with a perfect 3-0 SU record in his time at Western Kentucky & Purdue. They have impressive wins this year over bowlers Ohio State, Iowa, and Boston College. While the Boilers have hung around in the same neighborhood stat’s wise vs other bowl teams getting outgained by just 10 YPG, the Tigers have been dominated by other good teams getting outgained by 123 YPG vs other bowl teams. We’ll take the rising team as a dog over the team that is likely to go through the motions here.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +9 @ Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET – We are going contrarian here as most bettors will want to come back and bet Golden State off that humiliating loss to the Lakers on Christmas day. But knowing Vegas will adjust the number for that result we will grab the added value with the Blazers. Let’s consider this, earlier in November the Warriors hosted the Blazers and were favored by -1.5 points. Granted that was without Steph Curry but still this is a way over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Warriors are not playing as well this year as last and the numbers don’t lie. That doesn’t mean we don’t feel this team will be in the Finals this year, but they just aren’t playing well right now. Golden State last year on this date had the best home point differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG. This year that average has fallen to just +4.5PPG, 14th best in the league. The Warriors are 7-4 SU (4-7 ATS) off a loss this year but the margin of victory is just +4.1PPG which clearly won’t get a cover here.  Portland is also coming off a horrible showing in Utah and will bounce back with a better effort here. The Blazers are 8-6 SU off a beat this year with an average MOV of +1.4PPG. Portland does have a negative road differential of -6.4PPG on the season but that will get us the money here. The Trailblazers haven’t been an underdog of this size all season long. Portland was 3-0 ATS against the Warriors last year with two outright wins and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.  

#235 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Duke (+) over Temple, Thursday at 1:30 PM ET – INDEPENDENCE BOWL We feel the coaching mismatch in this game is fairly significant. Duke’s head man David Cutcliffe is a veteran whose been at Duke for 11 years & was the head coach at Ole Miss prior to that. His teams at both schools have performed very well in bowl games with an 9-2 ATS record. He prepares them well with the extra time off and that shows in his 82% ATS bowl mark. His counterpart on Thursday will be interim coach Ed Foley as Temple head coach Geoff Collins has moved on to take the job at Georgia Tech. Foley was the interim coach for Temple in their bowl game 2 years ago and they lost by 8 points to Wake Forest as a 12 point favorite. Temple’s main assistant coaches have remained in place which helps but many will be looking for new jobs (or have been already) as Miami DC Manny Diaz takes over starting on Friday. That has to cause some distraction for this team. We love this situation for the Devils as well. They were absolutely embarrassed in their season finale losing 59-7 to Wake Forest. Not only that, Duke was favored by 9 in that game! It was a bad spot for Duke as they were coming off Clemson a week earlier and took and up and coming Wake team for granted (Wake already beat Memphis in their bowl game). It was Cutcliffe’s worst loss of his career and you can bet his team wants redemption for that terrible and effortless performance. Temple, on the other hand, hasn’t been challenged in a month and a half when they beat Houston on November 11th. They were double digit favorites in their final two games vs USF and UConn and won those games by 10 & 50 points. The Owl defense has impressive numbers, however they did have problems with mobile QB’s allowing Houston to put up 49, Boston College 45, UCF 52, and Buffalo 36 points. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones falls into that category so we expect the Devils to have a solid offensive performance here. The Blue Devils have played the MUCH tougher schedule facing off against 10 teams that made their way into bowl games. They were 5-5 in those games including wins over Army (who blew out Houston in their bowl game), Miami FL, Northwestern (who won the Big Ten West), Georgia Tech, and Baylor. Meanwhile, in the much weaker AAC, Temple faced 6 bowl bound teams and finished with a 3-3 mark with wins over Houston (who was blown out by Army in their bowl game), USF (who was WAY down this season and blown out at home in their bowl game by Marshall), and Cincy in OT. We think Duke has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.

#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th.  Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP.  It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. 

ASA 9* PLAY ON Georgia Tech (-) over Minnesota, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET This is the Gophers first bowl appearance since PJ Fleck took over as head coach so they might be in “just happy to be here” mode. They already won their biggest game of the year upsetting Wisconsin (Badgers had 4 turnover to 0 for Minnesota) on the road in the season finale taking home Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 14 yards AND becoming bowl eligible in the process. Going into Wisconsin as a double digit underdog, we’re not sure they even expected to be playing in the post-season. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to get this win. Their long time head coach Paul Johnson has informed his team that he will retire after this one. From what we have been told, Johnson is well liked by his players and they REALLY want to win this game for him. “I’m going to try to have my best game, and we’re going to try to send coach Johnson out the right way, with a win,” linebacker and captain Brant Mitchell said. “I think that’s the mindset of everybody on this team.” The Jackets offensive strength plays right into Minnesota’s defensive weakness. Tech leads the nation in rushing at 335 YPG on 5.7 YPC while Minnesota allows 170 YPG on the ground in 5.2 YPC. They had some solid defensive performances vs the rush against lower tier rushing teams. However, against the top running games in the Big Ten they struggled allowing Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland to all rush for over 300 yards. Against Wisconsin to end the season, Minny jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead due to turnovers and special teams (punt return TD for Gophs) taking the Badgers out of their gameplan. Even with that Wisconsin rushed for 170 yards on 5.5 YPC. The Gophs will also be without their top defensive player and leading tackler LB Blake Cashman along with starting OT Donnell Greene who are both sitting out this game to get ready for the NFL draft. On top of that, head coach PJ Fleck suspended a few other players but he isn’t divulging who they are so we’ll all find out at game time. Either way, not a great sign for Minnesota and their mental readiness for this game. They are also the youngest team in the nation with over 50% of their roster being freshmen so it will be the first bowl game ever for many on this team. Because they were young, the Gophers struggled on the road with their only win coming @ Wisconsin in a game they were actually outgained. Their other games away from home ended in losses by margins of 29, 25, 24, and 16 points. Ga Tech has won 6 of 8 game entering this one but did lose in their season ender to in-state rival Georgia. Johnson has led his team to wins in 3 of their last 4 bowls games and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. We have a feeling the young Minnesota defense gets worn down in this game and Tech pulls away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Georgia Tech is the play.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season.  After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT.  After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games.  Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs.  They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure.  Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie.  As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation.  Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright!  On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night).  Want more?  With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games.  Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion.  They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed.  That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season.  While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow.  The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3).  KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team.  We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. 

#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This game is being played in Kansas City so while it is much closer to KSU it’s not on their home court. The Wildcats will be playing their 2nd game with starting center who is major contributor averaging 14 PPG and 8 RPG.  In their first game without Wade earlier this week, the Cats really struggled with an average at best Southern Miss team.  KSU was down 16 points at home in the 2nd half and rallied for a 55-51 win.  They got a little bit lucky in that game as well as Southern Miss shot just 31% from the field and still almost won the game.  Kansas State’s offense has struggled all season long and we expect them to really have problems with Wade out as he is their main inside threat.  If they are forced to be a more perimeter oriented team, that’s not a good sign as they simply don’t shoot the ball very well from outside (just 30% from deep which is 290th nationally).  They also leave a lot of points at the line shooting just 65% as a team (11 for 20 vs USM).  The problem for KSU here is Vandy is a very good offensive team that can shoot the ball with accuracy.  They are effective inside the arc (55%) and outside the arc (36%).  The Commodores average 83 PPG and have topped 75 points in all but one game this season.  That’s a huge problem for a KSU team that will need to put points on the board to win this game and they struggle to do that (68 PPG average).  Vandy is a solid defensive team as well allowing teams an eFG% of just 45% (32nd nationally).  The Dores come in with a 3-1 record vs top 100 teams with their only loss in that range coming vs NC State who has proven to be a very good team taking Wisconsin to the wire on the road and beating a top 10 Auburn team this week.  We’ll take the much better shooting team here as KSU is simply a struggling team early in the season. 

#224 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Army (-) over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – ARMED FORCES BOWL - We’re not so sure what Houston’s mind set will be entering this game. They had higher aspirations coming into the season but are stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl. Their top player, DT Oliver, is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL draft. Their starting QB D’Eriq King, who passed for 3000 yards and 36 TD’s along with nearly 700 yards rushing, hurt his knee in the Cougars 2nd to last game of the season and is out. His back up is a true freshman who was 18 of 43 passing in their season ending blowout loss at the hands of Memphis. They will also be without one of the top offensive playmakers, WR & kick returner Bryson Smith. On top of that, head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator at the end of the season. This team seems to done with this season and looking ahead to next year. We know that isn’t the case with Army. One thing we know about the service academies is they will show up and play hard in their bowl games (16-8 ATS in bowl games since 2003). Army was easily the best of the academies this year with a 10-2 record. Let’s not forget one of the losses was 28-21 @ Oklahoma in overtime and the Cadets outgained the Sooners! It was easily the lowest point total for the Sooners this season (21 in regulation) as they topped 40 in every game but two (37 vs Iowa State was the other). That speaks volumes on how good this Army defense is. They ended the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, AND scoring defense. Houston, on the other hand, struggled to top the run this year allowing just under 200 YPG. And that was WITH All American DT Ed Oliver in the line up and as we stated he is sitting this one out. The Cougs beat Navy this year as the Middies were way down, however they allowed 344 yards rushing in that one. They’ll have big problems again here stopping an Army running attack that ranks #2 nationally averaging 297 YPG. We like Army to win by at least a TD in this one so we’ll lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS

UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom).  That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses.  The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench.  They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points).  The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season.   Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team.  Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break.  OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago.  Ohio State won that game by 10 points.  The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense.  Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively.  On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation.  Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%.  Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago.  If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.

#217 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Florida International (+) over Toledo, Friday at 12:30 PM ET NOTE - FRIDAY AFTERNOON GAME - Windy conditions expected in the Bahamas Bowl and this absolutely will negate some of the impact of Florida International QB James Morgan being downgraded to "out" for this game. They are expecting 25 to 35 MPH winds in Nassau on Friday which has dropped this total from 67 to 56! We’re not on the total but interesting to note the affect the strong winds will have on this game. The running game will now become more important of this game and FIU back up QB Christian Alexander, a junior is actually the much better runner in comparison with Morgan. Alexander hasn't seen a ton of action this season but he did complete 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards plus he ran for 98 yards on 14 carries for an average of 7 yards per carry. Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and his insight into Toledo (both are MAC schools) is also a bonus in this game as he'll pass along plenty in game planning as he helps Alexander with this rare start. Though this will be an unexpected start for Alexander, he did see action in 8 of the Panthers 12 games this season. The Rockets have the more impressive numbers in terms of production on offense but they are also playing with their back up QB Eli Peters who stepped in the final 4 games for injured starter Mitchell Guadagni. Defensively FIU has a solid edge in our opinion. FIU has allowed 386 YPG on the season while Toledo has been rolled for 430 YPG. In road games this season, the Panthers have allowed just 22 points per game. As for Toledo, away from home this season the Rockets have allowed 34.6 points per game! The Rockets allowed only 13 points in their most recent game but that was at home vs Central Michigan who ranks 2nd to last nationally in total offense. Prior to that one, Toledo allowed 31 points or more in 7 of their previous 10 games since the season opener. With FIU's 28-25 loss to Marshall, the Panthers have now allowed 28 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Florida International is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season & 12-4-1 ATS in that role going back a few seasons. FIU’s Butch Davis is a veteran coach and gets the edge over Toledo’s Jason Candle who is in his 2nd year with the Rockets and this is his only head coaching experience. Davis took over a bad FIU program last year and turned them from a 4-8 team into an 8-5 team in one season. This year they sit at 8-4 looking for their first 9 win season ever. The venue also benefits FIU as they are a short hour flight from the Bahamas and definitely used the the warm, humid weather (supposed to be 80 degrees on Friday). The Toledo players may look at this as more of a vacation making the long trip from the cold Ohio weather. Grab the generous points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight.  They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule).  Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54).  All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points).  This team could easily have a much better record.   In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points.  Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings.  Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100.  That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points.  The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27.  They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites.  The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game.  Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally).  Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here.  Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record).  This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.

ASA play on: #569 New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Pelicans have been alternating wins and losses their last ten games and are off a loss last time out. New Orleans most recent road game was played in Boston where they were a +2.5-point underdog and lost 100-113. But the line on that game is significant here as they are plus 6 more points in Milwaukee. The Pelicans have been a dog of 8 or more points just 4 times this year and they’ve covered three of those games. Granted, the Pels have two key injuries to Randle and Mirotic but Milwaukee is also without Ilyasova and possible Brogdon. Let’s make these comparisons. The Bucks were just -10.5-points at home over Cleveland, possibly the worst team in the league, last week and -7.5-points at home over Detroit. Now they are laying this number against the Pelicans? Doesn’t add up by our metrics. Milwaukee is off two straight road wins and have a much bigger game looming on deck in Boston, so they won’t play at their peak level tonight. The Bucks have struggled shooting of late as their last five games they’ve hit under 44% of their FG attempts which is drastically less than their season average of nearly 48%. New Orleans 

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record.  However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU.  Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans.  When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated.  Their 5 wins have all come by double digits.  USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here.  USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are.  They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points.  Not overly impressive.  All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th).  Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen.  Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen.  USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team.  The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition.  USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game.  USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot.  They should roll in this one.

ASA 9* Northern Illinois (+) over UAB, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET – BOCA RATON BOWL - UAB comes into this game with the better record at 10-3 compared to Northern Illinois who is 8-5. However the Huskies have played the MUCH tougher schedule and it’s not even close. Only 9 teams in all of college football have had an easier schedule this year than UAB. The only decent non-conference game the Blazers played was vs Texas A&M and they lost that one 41-20. That game was also late in the season in the middle of the SEC season for A&M. The Aggies were in a perfect letdown spot coming off Ole Miss with LSU on deck and still dominated the game. Conference USA was not a strong league this year and that has shown true in the bowl games thus far. The two CUSA teams that have played thus far are Middle Tennessee State and North Texas and both were blown out despite facing teams that just lost their head coaches (App State & Utah State). UAB was 2-1 this year against those 2 teams but were outgained in all 3 games and their two wins were by 2 & 8 points. One of those wins was by 2-points over MTSU in the CUSA Championship game. NIU challenged themselves to say the least in the non-conference season as they faced Utah, BYU, Iowa, and Florida State! They struggled offensively in those games, which is understandable, but it also makes their overall stats for the season a bit misleading. Down the stretch this offense played quite well scoring 38, 36, and 30 points in 3 of their last 5 games. That includes an impressive come from behind 30-29 win over a very good Buffalo team in the MAC Championship game. Over their final 5 games, 3 vs bowl teams, the Huskies averaged nearly 400 YPG on offense. The defense is among the best in the nation allowing just 347 YPG on 4.6 PPG despite the tough schedule. We rated these defenses almost dead even. While UAB has better stats offensively, we rate them very close as well because of the strength of schedule difference. This game should be a pick-em on our opinion so we’re getting value with Northern Illinois here. UAB is a popular play here with over 70% of the overall spread tickets on the Blazers. That’s fine with us. That’s because since 2005, when a team gets more than 70% of the spread bets they are just 27-44-1 ATS (just 38%). Take Northern Illinois tonight.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic.  They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20.  At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23.  Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks.  Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road.  Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot.  Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard.  A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes.  Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents.  This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November.  In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion.  New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division.  However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks.  Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP.  Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP.  Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage.  Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season.  After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games.  Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP).  The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here.  We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team.  The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later.  ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74.  The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes.  It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort.  Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas.  Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead.  They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th.  While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest.  Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%.  They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State.  These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch.  ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season.  We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC.  The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.     

ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Colts.  Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week.  That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week.  Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense.  The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot.  They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker.  Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week.  Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here.  In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons.  The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins.  Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion.  Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run.  They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed.  If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble.  If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening.  We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week.  Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well.  So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season.  The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown.  We’ll lay the field goal

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL?  Baltimore?  Maybe Chicago?  Nope.  The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP.  That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least.  The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7.  They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG.  Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play.  That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense.  The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards.  Three turnovers were the key in that game.  The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards!  They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards.  This team is undervalued right now because of that.  QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games!  The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball.  While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games.  The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game.  Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them.  Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season).  It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility.  The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today.  Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it.  The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons.  They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season.  The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule.  They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st.  That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion.  They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive.  The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11.  Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor.  Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season.  The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73).  Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS).  They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th).  They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court).  Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games.  They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally).  They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally.  The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s.  This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.

ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.

ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA 9* Play ON North Texas (+) over Utah State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - There is a strong probability that Utah State won't be completely focused nor fully prepared for this one. Their head coach, Matt Wells, left to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech and now the Aggies are being led by a co-defensive coordinator (Frank Maile) in this one. Also favoring North Texas in this match-up is that teams with bad ATS records (33% or less) have historically been good bets in bowl games. Those teams have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread since 2005. North Texas fits within this criteria, as the Mean Green finished the regular season 4-8 ATS (33%). Even though UNT finished with a sub-par ATS record it could also be considered a bit of a statistical anomaly as the Mean Green actually won the yardage battle in all 12 of their games this season! In fact, on the season, North Texas averaged more than 100 yards per game than their foes. The Mean Green are solid defensively and allowing only 359.5 yards per game on the season. North Texas is on a 10-4 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, while UNT did win their final game of the regular season, Utah State suffered a momentum-killing (and very frustrating loss) at Boise State. That is worth taking note of because the Aggies are 3-8 SU (and ATS) when off a loss in conference action. Suffering that letdown against the Broncos and also dealing with the departure of their head coach, this is a tough spot for Utah State to be laying significant points. Against teams with a winning record, Utah State is on a 3-8 ATS (and 2-9 SU) run! Utah State's pass defense is likely to be exploited here as they closed out the season by allowing at least 307 passing yards in each of their four November games. We expect a rather tight game here and with North Texas having the program continuity edge - Utah State certainly dealing with distractions - we give the Mean Green a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance.  That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally.  Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability.  The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle.  Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally.  They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8.  UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense.  Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories.  The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier.  The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70.  For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th.  GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation.  Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets.  They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win.  The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here.  Add another spread win to the ledger tonight.  Take UCF.

ASA NFL 8* PLAY ON Baltimore +7 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Chiefs seem to be coming back to the pack a bit.  After covering their first 7 games this season they are now 1-3-1 vs the number the last 5 games.  Last week they struggled with a terrible Oakland team winning 40-33.  KC only outgained a bad Oakland offense by 27 yards and it was a 3-point margin with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game.  A week earlier KC lost to the Rams.  The week before that they struggled with Arizona which was a one score game in the 4th quarter.  Now they must try and function without one of their top offensive weapons with RB Hunt no longer on the team.  They looked fine last week vs a terrible Oakland defense but now they face a top notch Baltimore defense.  The Ravens have the recipe to take down the Chiefs.  They have the best defense in the NFL in YPG and YPP allowed.  Last week they held a potent Atlanta offense to just 131 total yards!  Only 2 teams all season have topped 24 points on this Baltimore defense.  Will they shut down KC potent offense?  No.  But they have a chance to slow them down and if they do, they have a great shot to win this game.  Offensively, since Lamar Jackson took over at QB three weeks ago, Baltimore has rolled up huge rushing numbers with 267, 242, and 207 yards on the ground.  Because of that, they’ve controlled the clock with a time of possession edge 38:00 to 22:00 over the last 3 games.  Those numbers will come in handy here as the Ravens will be able to keep KC’s offense on the sideline by controlling the ball.  The Chiefs defense vs the run is the worst in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC so look for Baltimore’s running game to continue to thrive on Sunday.  They can’t stop the run and the Chiefs defense has looked terrible the last 2 weeks allowing 54 & 33 points.  This is a huge game for the Ravens as they are battling for their playoff lives.  They are currently behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North and are fighting numerous teams for a potential wildcard spot.  KC has a great record, however looking as their season long stats, they are only outgaining their opponents by 20 YPG.  Baltimore outgains their opponents by 90 YPG on the season.  The Ravens have been great in the role of underdog covering 14 of their last 17 in that spot.   They do it again on Sunday and we give them a great shot to pull the upset.

ASA NFL 8* PLAY ON Indianapolis +4.5 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love taking a team off a shutout loss this late in the NFL season, especially when it’s a team fighting for the playoffs. Nobody will want to back the Colts in this situation as last weeks results are fresh in their minds, plus they are play the Texans who have just ripped off 9 straight wins. But stop and ask yourself this, why is the line so low and it looks like an obvious bet on Houston. Let’s consider the number on this game too. Houston went to Indy in late September and were favored by 1-point which means they should be at least 9 or 10 here but Vegas set the number this low? They want you to bet Houston! The 9-3 Texans are 8th in the NFL in average margin of victory at +5.6PPG and five of their last nine wins have come by single scores. The Colts on the other hand are 6-6 SU for the year but yet have a positive differential of +3.8PPG which is the best number in the league (11th) by a team with a non-winning record. Let’s not forget the Colts had won 5 straight games prior to last week’s aberration in Jacksonville. You might be surprised to know this, but the Colts defense has flown under the radar this season but have been pretty good. Indianapolis allows just 5.7 yards per play which is slightly more than the 5.6YPPL the Texans allow. When it comes to overall defensive efficiency numbers the Colts rank 11th in the NFL while Houston is 6th so not a dramatic difference. Offensively the Colts are better than Houston when it comes to overall offensive efficiency numbers. If history tells us anything this will be a close game as 7 of the last eight meetings between these two AFC South rivals have been decided by just one score. Grab the points with Indianapolis.

ASA play on: #704 Indiana Pacers -4 over Sacramento Kings, 7:05PM ET - We’re betting a number here not a team as the value clearly lies with Indiana in this match up. If you haven’t followed the NBA this year then you probably don’t know how well the Kings have played. They are 13-11 SU and are building momentum in the West. Sacramento is coming two straight road wins but they came against the two worst teams in the league, at Phoenix and Cleveland. Indiana has won two straight games since losing to this same Kings team in Sacramento on Dec. 1st. It was a close game down to the wire which the Kings pulled out at home 111-110. The interesting part about that game is the fact that Indiana was favored by -2-points THERE and are now laying just -4-points at home. Indiana is 7-4 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. The Kings do have a positive road differential but it hasn’t been a tough schedule away from home for them. They also have done well when playing without rest this year while the Pacers are 4-0 SU in that scheduling situation. Bet the best number on the board today...bet Indiana!

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home.  Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much.  The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6.  The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB.  They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span.  The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP.  Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG).  Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting.  That’s going to be very tough in our opinion.  The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles.  He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him.  That’s the recipe for success again tonight.  Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win.  Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6).  Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different.  If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4.  The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom.  They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5).  Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers.  They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena.  Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits.  Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams.  Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen.  They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th.  Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus.  The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant.  We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games.  Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner.  Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster.  Lay it with Purdue.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far.  Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena.  The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season.  They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS.  Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site.  The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense.  They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation).  That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally).  No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot.  The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home.  Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden.   Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot.  We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season.  Lay the small number with Oklahoma.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Wisconsin.  They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game.  Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season.  That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville.  We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog.  These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected.  With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away.  On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers.  The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents.  They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency.  This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5).  Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction.  They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago.  The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin.  UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory.  Rutgers plus the points here.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR

We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos.  The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road.  On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win.  With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances.  They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one.  Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score.  Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game.  We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation.  Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now.  They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG.  Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points.  The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders.  Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year.  In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits.  LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here.  Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot.  The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center.  We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.

#309 ASA 9* PLAY ON Memphis (+) over UCF, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is a revenger for the Tigers who faced off against UCF at home on October 13th and lost 31-30. Memphis led that game 30-17 at half and were held scoreless in the 2nd half in the 1-point loss. Not only that, Memphis lost twice last year to UCF including a 62-55 setback in OT in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers led that game at half as well and took a 7-point lead in the first OT only to lose in the 2nd OT. Memphis was hoping for this rematch and they get it. The one big difference is UCF QB and leader McKenzie Milton will not be playing in this game after a season ending injury last week vs USF. That’s simply too big of a loss to overcome for the Knights. To put his loss in perspective, Milton accounted for 1,200 total yards and 11 TD’s in those 3 games vs Memphis we discussed above. Even with that, the Tigers went to the wire with a chance to win in the most recent 2 match ups. Milton’s replacement is freshman Darriel Mack Jr who has very little experience. He started one game this year with Milton out and UCF topped a bad ECU team and Mack threw for just 69 yards. The Knights were actually outgained in that game by an ECU team that has just 3 wins on the season. For the season, Mack has attempted just 43 passes and completed less than 50% of those throws (just 4 yards per pass attempt). That should allow the Memphis defense to focus mainly on stopping the run which they’ve been solid at this year (3.9 YPC allowed). The Tigers have proven they can score a move the ball against a UCF defense that is the weak point of their team allowing over 400 YPG. UCF, with Mack now at QB, has not proven they can do the same. We’ll take the points here and call for Memphis to pull the upset which is not really an upset in our mind.

#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.

#329 ASA 9* PLAY ON Marshall (+) over Virginia Tech, Saturday at Noon ET - The common thinking here will be to back the team the team that needs this game for bowl eligibility and plays in the tougher conference. However, Virginia Tech is off a rivalry game win over Virginia. Not only could that leave the Hokies running a little low on "fuel" here - both physically and mentally - that was also just the 2nd win for Virginia Tech in their past 7 games. Both wins have come by just 3 points. The Hokies are allowing 205 rushing yards per game this season while the Thundering Herd rush defense is surrendering only 100 yards per game. Also, Virginia Tech QB Willis has struggled in his last two games and has thrown 4 picks against just 2 TD's plus he has completed less than 50% of his passes. The Thundering Herd have been enjoying a resurgence since QB Green returned. He has thrown 6 TDs against 3 TDs in recent games while also completing close to 60% of his passes. Marshall is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog while Virginia Tech is on an overall 1-6 ATS run entering this one. The injury report for this game also shows that the Hokies are in much worse shape than the Thundering Herd in that department as well. Grab the points with the undervalued road dog in this non-conference match-up going very early Saturday.

#304 ASA 9* PLAY ON Buffalo (-) over Northern Illinois, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Huskies are stumbling into the MAC Championship Game as Northern Illinois is off back to back losses. The Bulls, on the other hand, are 7-1 (SU and ATS) in their 8 MAC games this season and are very hungry to finally erase their history of struggles against the Huskies. Undoubtedly, Buffalo is favored over Northern Illinois here with good reason! Much is made of the Huskies strong defense but the Bulls defensive stats in terms of overall yardage allowed are equal to that of Northern Illinois. Also, Buffalo has the much more dangerous offense and is averaging 15 points more (and 101 yards more) per game in comparison with the Huskies. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois is 0-4 (SU and ATS) as a neutral field underdog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Grab the Bulls and lay the small points. Buffalo rolls in the MAC Championship Game early Friday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET

After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville.  MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT.  Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28.  So how did they lose?  The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line.  Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss.  They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday.  That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day.  It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year.  One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns.  MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season.  Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games.  Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively.  Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season.  Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game.  The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits.  MSU off a loss is a solid play here.

ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!

ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly.  This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd).  They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer.  Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th.  That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win.  Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent.  They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court.  Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier.  They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16.  Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games.  They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency.  Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend.  They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball.  UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one.  As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home.  The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week.  They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16.  That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs.  Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted.  Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week.  Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle.  They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston.  The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980.  On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents.  These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games.  We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses.  The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit.  Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion.  These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4.  Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above.  That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be.  The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year.  They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road.  Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points.  Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit).  When they’ve had to play better teams away from  home, they’ve lost.  These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those.  We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip.  It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away.  In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago.  CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on.  Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be.  However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3.  The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado.  AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State).  Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally).  Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots.  They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win).  Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points).  Colorado gets the cover on the road here.

#234 ASA 9* play on Arizona (+) over Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET - The home team has won each of the last five meetings between Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats are seeking revenge here as they lost last year when the Sun Devils came back from being down by double digits to win by a dozen points on their home field. Look for home field to again be a key factor in this season's match-up. Both teams are off losses last week but there is a key scheduling edge here the way we see it. That's because, although both teams played in the Pacific Northwest last week (ASU in Eugene, Oregon against Ducks and Wildcats in Pullman, WA against the Cougars), Arizona just enjoyed the benefits of a bye two weeks ago. As for Arizona State, their bye was quite some time back and this is their sixth straight week of action. Also, for the Sun Devils, this is their third road game in the past five weeks. Another factor here is that Arizona State already has their 6th win but Arizona still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Arizona State is 2-4 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in road games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points. That system fits here and, base on the line here, that 0-6 SU run is certainly worth noting. Arizona is already 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss against a conference foe and the Wildcats are set up well to add another W to that record. In home games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points, Arizona has a record of 17-6 SU the last 23. We won’t be surprised when the Wildcats win this game in a blowout at home. Bet Arizona!

#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.

#143 ASA 9* PLAY ON Washington (+) over Washington State, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Huskies have dominated this series with 4 straight wins both SU and ATS. This is a big rivalry game and this year's carries some extra meaning for certain. Not only are these teams battling it out at the top of the Pac-12 North, the Cougars are going for an all-time record 11th win on the season. Of course with the low spread posted on this game, it may seem enticing to back Washington State on a 13-game winning streak at home and also having already tied the school record with a 10th win on the year. However, Washington is not going to relinquish their supremacy in this rivalry so easily! The fact is that the Huskies have played a tougher strength of schedule this season. Also, Washington is offering great value here because they've had a tough season ATS and this is overshadowing the fact that they have had a solid season SU. The Cougars have been the hot ATS team and are garnering the attention of the betting markets. One of things we favor overall in terms of betting situations is "running road dogs" that also play solid defense. The Huskies are gaining more than twice as much rushing yardage per game as the Cougars this season. Also, in the last 2 meetings between these teams, Washington has out-gained Washington State by an average of over 200 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings between these rivals. The Huskies are allowing just 16.6 points per game on the season and have allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 11 games this season. The Cougars have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 8 games. Grab the road dog. Washington rolls in this one Friday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU.  They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog.  The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.  ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers.  Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter.  However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs.  They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points.  We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game.  All of that and UNI still only won by a single point.  ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game.  Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points.  This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago.  They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot.  Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot.  They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games.  Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.

#117 ASA 9* PLAY ON East Carolina (+) over Cincinnati, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bearcats officially took themselves out of the AAC Championship race last week with a 38-13 loss @ UCF.  That was basically a championship type game as the winner was locked into the AAC Title game.  It’s going to be very tough for the Bearcats to bounce back and play at a high level this week vs ECU.  Cincy is going to a bowl game no matter what so while this one isn’t meaningless, it’s close.  The Pirates are MUCH better than their 3-7 record might indicate.  They are actually outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG despite their 3 wins.  This team can hang around because they can score.  They average 456 YPG offensively and they’ve outgained 7 of their 10 opponents.  They’ve hung in fairly well against the AAC other top teams this year with turnovers usually taking them out of contention for upsets in those games.  Earlier this year against UCF they lost 37-10, however the Pirates were +7 first downs, +70 in total yardage in that game.  They also had 5 turnovers, missed a FG, were shut out on downs at the UCF 8-yard line, AND gave up a 94-yard fumble recovery for a TD.  That game was much closer than the final score indicated.  Against the other two teams vying for a spot in the AAC Championship game, the Pirates were competitive as well.  They lost by 18 to Memphis but it was a 4-point game entering the 4th quarter.  Against Houston the same scenario.  They lost by 22 but Houston returned a fumble for a TD and ECU had more first downs & more yardage.  Cincy comes in a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 to the spread.  Now laying a huge number in a bad spot we look for ECU to cover this spread.

#112 ASA 9* play on Air Force (-) over Colorado State, 3:30 PM ET - The Falcons have out-gained the Rams by a combined 547 rushing yards in the past two meetings. Of course Air Force is known for their ground attack but Colorado State has held a passing edge in the past two meetings. The Rams passing game may not be so successful in this one however. They have had only one strong game in the air out of 5 games away from home this season. In their other 4 games away from Fort Collins, Colorado State has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. The Rams are off a very tough late-game loss to Utah State as they very nearly pulled off a huge upset. That is the type of defeat that tends to be the most difficult to bounce back from. Colorado State also is just 1-4 ATS in games not played at Fort Collins. The Rams are 2-6 ATS the last 8 times as a conference dog of more than 14 points when off a SU loss. In road games with a total set between 56.5 and 63 points the Rams are on a 9-20 ATS run. All 3 of the wins that Air Force has at home this season have come by 18 points or more. The average margin of victory for Air Force in their home wins has been 28 points this season. The Rams last 4 losses have been by an average margin of 21 points. The forecast is more of the same in this one. We won’t be surprised when the Falcons win this game in a blowout at home. Lay the points!

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Brutal spot here for Chicago.  They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road.  Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start.  The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota.  If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB.  We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway.  His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road.  Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2.  They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game.  Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here.  All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth.  After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina.  They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago.  That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit.  So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU

This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get.  This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU.  Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros.  That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here.  First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup.  All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team.  The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years.  They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts.  It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run.  While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition.  Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points.  The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games.  They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season.  The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.

ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #516 Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:00 PM ET - We like Memphis, a mid-tier Western Conference team over the lower-tier Mavericks. The line on this game has been impacted by the four game winning streak of Dallas but we like the overall value with Memphis minus the points. Dallas is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with the lone ‘W’ coming in Chicago, who is one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Mavs have the 8th worst road point differential in the league at -7.6PPG. They have the 4th worst road offensive efficiency rating and are around league average in DEFF. Memphis is 6-1 SU at home this year with an average point differential of +7.9PPG (11th), the 4th best DEFF and 15th in OEFF when playing on their own floor. Neither team has an advantage scheduling wise as the Grizz played yesterday which is a negative but the Mavs are off a huge upset win over Golden State the day before. Memphis is similar to the Jazz, Spurs and Lakers who were all 7+ point home chalks over Dallas recently. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: #589 SE Missouri State +6 over South Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - South Alabama is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation so far this season.  If you throw out their game vs Huntingdon (don’t ask) they are shooting just 32% from the field and averaging only 59 PPG.  They rank 347th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency.  They are 2-2 on the year with their only wins coming against Huntingdon and Chattanooga (ranked 329th nationally).  They were just beaten 71-48 at home vs Jacksonville.  Their opponent tonight, SE Missouri State, played that same Jacksonville team last Friday on this court (Mobile, AL – South Alabama’s home court) and beat them 77-71.  SEMO controlled the boards in that game (+13) while South Alabama was outrebounded by 13 against that same Jacksonville team. After losing to Saint Louis & Bradley to start the season, the Redhawks have some momentum entering tonight winning 3 straight.  They are a solid defensive team ranking 58th nationally in eFG% defense and 7th nationally in 3 point FG% defense.  That will be a problem for the Jaguars who, as we told you, can’t shoot.  In this one we get the better defensive team and better rebounding team getting points.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!

#353 ASA 9* play on Cincinnati (+) over Central Florida, 8PM ET - We have patiently waited for the right spot to fade UCF and the day is here. Based on the strength of schedule these two teams are much closer than you might think but UCF is living on last year’s reputation and a 22-game winning streak. That has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the Knights number here. UCF has been out-gained in 3 of their last four games yet went 4-0 SU. Cincinnati has out-gained every opponent but two this season and in those two games they were minus -6-yards and minus -2-yards. Central Florida has a total 36-minute time of possession deficit in their last four games combined and their big play ability will be nullified by a Bearcat defense that allows just 4.2 yards per play which is 5th best in college football. UCF relies on a running game that averages 5.0YPC but Cincinnati gives up just 3.1YPC (14th). Both teams recently played Navy on their home fields and the statistics drastically favor Cincinnati’s results. The Bearcats out-gained Navy by 280 total yards and held the potent Midshipmen rushing attack to just 124 yards and 2.4YPC. That’s quite the defensive statement considering Navy is 3rd in the nation in rushing at 274YPG. Cincinnati beat Navy 42-0. Last week UCF beat Navy 35-24 but the Midshipmen held an 11-minute TOP advantage, rushed for 375 yards at a 6.0YPC average. UCF did put up 300 yards rushing themselves but that was against a Navy defense that is 95th in the country in stopping the run so we’re not impressed. This is clearly a huge game for both teams but Central Florida is carrying the weight of this unbeaten streak and the pressure continues to mount. UCF has an average margin of victory of +23PPG but Cincinnati has a MOV of +20.1PPG and cover the spread by an average of nearly 11PPG. We won’t be surprised when the Bearcats win this game outright on the road. Grab the points!