ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court.  Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6.  App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts.  However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc.  Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire.  The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul.  The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game.  We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here.  If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year.  However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on.  Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks.  The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe.  The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games.  Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league.  ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed.  Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best.  We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest.  Take the points. With Appalachian State.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON Detroit Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Montreal, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET - The Red Wings didn't just lose to the Canadiens two weeks ago, they were thoroughly embarrassed on home ice in an ugly 8-1 loss. Now it is payback time. While Montreal needs to win (playoff implications), Detroit would love to get revenge here and play the spoiler role. The beauty of this value situation is that the Habs are such a big favorite that we can take the Red Wings on the puck line at +1.5 goals and lay very little juice. Of course this means that even if Detroit falls short in a tight one-goal loss here, that loss still translates to a win for our betting ticket. The Red Wings are not going to go down without a fight here after what happened in Detroit two weeks ago. Also, that was one of just 3 wins that the Canadiens have in their last 8 games. The fact is that Montreal has been feeling the playoff pressure and they've actually lost 9 of their last 14 games. Even though Detroit is an ugly 3-10 in their last 13 games, 5 of those losses came by just a single goal. That said, at +1.5 goals, the Red Wings are 8-5 their last 13 games. Going further back, Detroit is 9-18 their last 27 games but 9 of the 18 losses have come by a single goal. That means an 18-9 record for Detroit at +1.5 goals. With all the pressure on Montreal here and the Red Wings playing loose and with revenge, this one goes down to the wire! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and very little juice - 120 range) with Detroit is the value play here.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego.  The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first.  San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas.  Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium.  If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd.  To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion.  We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff.  San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior.  Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season.  They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings.  This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose.  On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance.  Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday!  Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points.  St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings.  They are beatable especially in this spot.  The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength.  That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight.  We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion.  Take San Diego. 

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Flyers are -270 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Philadelphia by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at even money and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Flyers win by two or more goals. The Senators have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The average margin of defeat for Ottawa in those 10 games was 2.4 goals. The Flyers have won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Each of Philadelphia's last 4 victories have come by a margin of 3 goals. The Sens went into "fire sale" mode at the trade deadline and their recent level of play reflects that. Conversely the Flyers are fighting hard and very much alive in the playoff race. Philly has won 2 of its last 3 meetings with the Senators and both of those victories came by a margin of 2 more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and no juice) with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASA play on: #511 Houston Rockets -9 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET – We’re going to give you some added advice with this bet Sunday and that’s a future bet on the Rockets to win it all this season. Don’t wait to bet it either as you’ll steadily lose value as the season wears on. The Rockets are playing lights out right now with a 7-game winning streak as they climb the standings in the West. The Rockets have been impressive with three straight double-digit wins over three of the best teams in the East. They also have a 6-point win in Golden State in this stretch of games. So even though we are laying a premium price on this game as a 9-point road favorite it’s justified. The Mavs look like they’ve called it a season with four straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. In their last nine losses all but one has come by 10 or more points. The Mavericks have beaten the Rockets twice this season, so they won’t take them for granted here. Houston is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the point with the Rockets today!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis.  That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night.  The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot.  They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever.  They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way.  The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa.  We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane.  They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points.  The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog.  Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2).  They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch.  They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th.  The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State.  Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings.  We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday.  Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday.  We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year.  However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss.  They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games.  While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record.  They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots.  9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads.  They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference.  They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen.  They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive.  They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12.  Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT).  The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts!  KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.

ASA play on: #555 Utah Jazz -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – We are going contrarian here, as we like to do, and bet against the hot Grizzlies who have covered 3 straight. In fact, we just bet on Memphis the other night when they covered against Portland but let’s examine that game which has solid indicators for our bet against them here. Portland was wrapping up a brutal stretch of 7 road games and were favored by -5.5 at Memphis. The Blazers led by 16-points in the game but ran out of gas late and Memphis grabbed the upset home win. Now Utah comes into this game, who we rank higher in our metrics, laying less than Portland was the other night. Plus, Memphis is coming off a satisfying win over Portland and in for a letdown. Memphis 16-17 SU at home on the season with an average differential of plus + .1PPG which is 22nd worse in the NBA. Their home offensive efficiency numbers are awful as they average just 1.051 points per possession – last in the NBA! Utah is 16-16 SU on the road this year but they have the 7th best road differential in the NBA at plus +.7PPG. The Jazz shoot it well on the road this year with the 9th best road field goal percentage at 46.4%. The Jazz have recently beat a hot New Orleans team on the road by 10, won in Denver by 7, lost in OT by 1 at OKC (one of best home courts in NBA) and lost by 7 at Golden State. Now they step WAY down in talent to face a ‘fat’ Grizzlies team. Memphis is 2-3 SU their last five at home with the wins against Portland (tough spot) and the fading Lakers. They lost to Chicago, the Clippers by 6 and San Antonio. Utah wins this game by double digits!

ASA play on: #547 Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET. Well, we hit two more NBA plays last night which adds to our incredible NBA 84% winning streak of 21-4. It just goes to show how dialed in our math model is right now. Tonight, the numbers are crunched, and we like the double-digits with Indiana over Milwaukee. Yes, we are aware of the Bucks average point differential which is best in the NBA at +9.1PPG overall, +12.8PPG at home but this is not a good spot for them. Milwaukee has lost two straight, which hasn’t happened all season, and most bettors will look at this game and say it’s a ‘bounce’ back situation for a good team. But we are contrarian here and see another angle to this game which is fatigue and pressure is starting to get to a young Bucks team. The Bucks have shot under 39% in their last two games and now face a Pacers team that is 5th in the NBA in defensive FG% against at 44.8%. The numbers are starting to catch up to Milwaukee which is evident in their 1-3 ATS run as a home double-digit chalk. Speaking of double-digits, the Pacers haven’t been a dog of 10 or more points this season. Indiana has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +.8PPG with a 17-14 SU road record. The Bucks own the best defensive efficiency number in the league, but Indiana is second and more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. Grab the points with the Pacers!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR

UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55.  The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half.  Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight.  The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game.  This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting.  Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena.  Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record.  However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight.  Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight.  In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%.  That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense.  They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line.  40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC.  That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games.  This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation.  A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go.  We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.

ASA  play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We’ve said this exact same thing the past two games that we’ve played against the Lakers, but the LeBron charade is pretty much over. He is solely responsible for the Lakers demise this season. He clearly doesn’t have the leadership skills to command the respect of his teammates and it’s always been a matter of time before his teams see through him. I’m not saying he’s not one of the most gifted players in the league as he is. But his ego has gotten the best of him and it’s infected the rest of the team, coaching staff and organization. And now that he’s quit playing hard for the season this team is obviously done. It’s been easy money betting against Los Angeles, so we’ll do it again. According to our rankings we have Denver as a top 5 team in the league with an offensive efficiency rating that is 3rd best in the league, a defensive efficiency that is 11th. Even on the road they have solid efficiency numbers ranking in the top half of the league in both OEFF and DEFF despite a .500 overall road record. The Nuggets have the 7th best point differential in the league right now in their past five games at +4.4PPG. The Lakers are in a free-fall with a 10-20 SU record their last 30 games, 1-5 their last six. Since the return of LeBron from injury the Lakers defense has been one of the worst in the league. In their last five games the Lakers are allowing 1.143 points per possession which is 22nd in the NBA and have a negative differential of minus -5PPG. Denver comes into this game having lost three straight and will play at a peak level against the high-profile Lakers. Denver by a dozen or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65.  We’re right back on the Lobos at home here.  We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year.  New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process.  Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game.  The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other.  The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge.  They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall.  The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351).  On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise.  They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs.  Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81.  That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play.  New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play.  They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late.  The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games.  They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games.  That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired.  We like New Mexico to win their home finale.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET

These two met one time this season and we remember it well.  We were on Western KY at home favored by 6.  We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win.  UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points.  The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run.  After that, they trailed for most of the game.  WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points.  The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line.  We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here.  Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road.  Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out.  They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70.  On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points.  They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency.   The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season.  Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG.  In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY.  A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY.  We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.

ASA play on: #532 Detroit Pistons -5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We like the situation here to bet the home team Pistons for several reasons.  Minnesota is coming off a high-profile game last night against a division rival the OKC Thunder and are also playing their 3rd game in four nights. This will also be the Wolves 4th road game in their last five, 6th in their last eight. The Wolves are just 2-7 SU when playing without rest with a negative differential of nearly 4PPG. The Wolves are all but officially eliminated from the post season as they are 6-games back with 19 to play.  Detroit on the other hand is rested, playing well and fighting for the 6th seed in the East. The 6th spot is critically important to the Pistons as that would mean a potential first round matchup with the Pacers (if the season ended today). Detroit is 8-2 SU their last ten games and have won 5 straight at home by an average of 12.2PPG. Included in those five W’s are victories over the Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets. Detroit is looking at three very winnable games in a row but need to get this win tonight first. The Wolves have the 10th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.1PPG and a big reason why is their road defense which is 27th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.161 points per possession. The Pistons have covered 7 in a row against the T’Wolves, make it 8!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points?  We agree with the number.  Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why.  Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season.  They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home.  The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3.  Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference.  Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%.  They were also plus on the boards during that stretch.  Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents.  The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season.  They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points.  The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time.  They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio.  Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road.  That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2

We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night.  This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday.  A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance.  “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.”  OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season.  Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title.  Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record.  That has been the theme for this young KU team this year.  They really can’t be trusted on the road.  They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points.  Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here.  These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63.  The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go.  Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game.  Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team.  OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season.  This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team.  We’ll take the home dog.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET – If you’ve followed us for any length of time you know how much we like to be on the ‘uglies’ or contrarian Sides in the NBA. A general rule of thumb we’ve lived by for the past 30 years is to not be on the team Vegas wants you to bet. The Blazers look way too good to be true in this match-up, so we’ll take the ugly Grizzlies at home plus the points. Memphis has a defensive minded backcourt with Avery Bradley and Mike Conley that can defend or neutralize the Blazers strength, Lillard and McCollum. Granted, the Grizzlies had a different roster at the time but two months ago when these two teams met in Portland the Blazers were essentially favored by the same number as today’s game. I could argue the Grizzlies are a better team after the trade for Bradley and Valanciunas. Portland is fighting for a top 4 placement in the West and have a much bigger game on deck with Oklahoma City AND this will be their 7th straight road game so how focused are they? The Blazers have a losing road record this season and a negative differential of -1.7PPG which is 13th in the league. Memphis has a losing home record on the season, but their average differential is minus -.2PPG which clearly gets us a cover here.  Despite a disappointing season the Grizzlies still have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and they can keep this game close throughout. The obvious bet here is Portland…SO TAKE MEMPHIS!

ASA play on: LA CLIPPERS +4 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – I wouldn’t bet the Lakers with someone else’s money right now. Since LeBron tried to orchestrate the trade for Anthony Davis the team has gone in the tank. The drama that follows LeBron everywhere he goes is a HUGE distraction and he’s just not a player that others want to follow. A lot of talk, but he doesn’t back it up. His playoff intensity has been embarrassing on the defensive end of the floor and he hasn’t inspired the younger players to another level.  In their last five games the Lakers have a negative differential of -6.6PPG, have allowed an average of 121PPG on 48.7% shooting by foes. Four of those last five games have come against non-playoff teams New Orleans twice, Phoenix and Memphis. The Clippers on the other hand made a big move at the trade deadline but have not given up on the season. The Clips have a positive differential their last five games of +.8PPG and three of those five games were on the road against playoff caliber teams in Sacramento, Utah and Denver. The Clippers have covered 4 straight in the series and they’re clearly the team that is still playing hard. Grab the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week

We love this situation for Maryland.  The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday.  That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game.  On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland.  Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53.  Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home.  Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few.  These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win.  The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep.  They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game.  One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home.  Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG.  Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good.  The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%).  We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%.  The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road.  They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State.  We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a great spot for New Mexico.  They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West.  The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34.  San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%.  Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort.  The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference).  Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins.  Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play.  Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27!  Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT.  We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU.  They are still just 3-7 away from home this season.  The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home!  New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made.  Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team.  With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season.  Lay it with the Lobos

ASA play on: #570 Utah Jazz -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 9PM ET – Look at this number and tell me what your first instinct is. The Bucks as an underdog? Take the points! NOT US, we’re going contrarian here and taking the team Vegas doesn’t want us to bet, Utah! The Bucks have been red hot with a 20-2 SU streak but this is not a good spot as they are coming off a big showcase win over the Lakers last night and will letdown here. Milwaukee used a 15-2 run to close the game last night (thankfully as we had the Bucks) and expended a ton of energy to get that W. As impressive as the Bucks run has been the Jazz have been nearly as good. Utah is 17-6 SU their last 23 games and are coming off a big win a few nights back over Denver. We’re comfortable with the spread on this game as the Jazz have been favored at home by similar numbers over the better teams in the West. The Jazz are 21-6 SU the last 27 clashes with the Bucks and have COVERED 15 of the last sixteen meetings in Utah. The Jazz have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA at +6.7PPG and that comes against a tougher schedule in the West. We’ll finish with this. Why are the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA, this big of an underdog against the 6th seed in the West? Because they’re going to win this game by 8 or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits.  We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch.  We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points.  We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now.  This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss.  Rutgers is trending upward.  They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid.  That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game.  Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday.  Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run.  They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch.  Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending.  In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining.  Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win.  Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well.  Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG.  Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making.  We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington.  We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field.  Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year.  That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points.  The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis.  He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February.  Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game.  In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win.  This will be their first road game without Travis.  Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy.  They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game.  Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama.  Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that.  The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky.  Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November.  We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – This is an interesting matchup from our perspective as we just won a wager against the Bucks on Wednesday and also won betting on the Lakers. Tonight, we have a great combination wager with an investment on the Bucks minus the points, and a play against Los Angeles. The Bucks were up 13 at the end of the 3rd and led by as many as 17 at one point over the Kings. Sacramento forced OT but the Bucks held on for the 1-point win. This is a much bigger game with a marquee showdown against LeBron and the Lakers so don’t expect a letup in this one. Milwaukee is 22-9 SU on the road this season with the second-best average point differential in the league at +6.4PPG. The Bucks were just favored by -6.5 points in Sacramento who is better than this Lakers team, yet the line is lower. We weren’t impressed with the Lakers win over the Pelicans the other night. LeBron and his lip service talked about flipping the switch on his playoff intensity and playing with a sense of urgency but he’s not living up to the talk. Sure, he’s put up impressive offensive numbers, but his defense is horrendous and it’s obvious to see he’s lost the team and their confidence. The entire team lacked the urgency LBJ talked about in a revenge game against the Pelicans, at home, off a couple bad losses AND with a limited Anthony Davis’s role. If they don’t show up for that game, they won’t show up here. L.A. has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at plus .8PPG and are just 18-12 SU in the Forum. When it comes to efficiency these two teams aren’t close. The Bucks are 4th in OEFF compared to the Lakers 21st ranking. Defensively the Bucks are 1st in DEFF while the Lakers are 12th and falling. Los Angeles played a very weak schedule prior to the break and we’re finding out just how bad this team is now that the level of competition has gone up. The Bucks by a dozen.

ASA play on: @Sacramento Kings -3 vs LA Clippers, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley (out tonight), Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings are just 1-4 SU their last five games which is why we are getting tremendous value tonight but look at who they’ve played. Sacramento has played arguably 4 of the five best teams in the league in this current stretch. They lost by 4 combined point IN Golden State and Denver, won in OKC and then just lost by 1-point to the Bucks at home the other night in over-time. Now they step way down in talent against a Clippers team that narrowly leads them in the West for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Kings have not had good success against the Clippers in recent years but these are not the same rosters. Sacramento is 100% or perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by -3.5 or less points this season (under-valued by the oddsmakers). The Clippers traded away their leading scorer in Tobias Harris and looked as it they were going to tank the rest of the season for a better draft status but they then won 3 of five games. Looking closer we see those wins came against Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas who are a combined 63-123 SU. Based on the efficiency differentials we calculate the Kings winning by 9 in this contest. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET

Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January.  Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66.  One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points.  His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here.  Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year.  They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS).  Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play.  Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be.  Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion.  They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage).  This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team.  Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points.  We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses.  Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington.  The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate.  They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league.  Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight.  These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home.  The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon.  The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions.  Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host.  The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home.  ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton).  After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here.  Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference).   It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team.  The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team.  Interesting line move and we agree with it.  Take Oregon.

ASA play on: #530 Indiana Pacers -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – Both teams are coming off road games last night but we like one of the best teams in the East to rebound at home with a better effort, than a Wolves team on the road again and playing out the string. Minnesota has been bad all season on the road and currently have the 7th worst road record in the NBA at 9-22 SU with an average differential of -4.7PPG (20th in NBA). When playing without rest this season the Wolves are 2-6 SU with an average differential of -3.2PPG. Indiana has the 3rd best home point differential in the league this season at plus +9.3PPG which ties in nicely to their 23-8 SU home record. The Pacers are also 8-3 SU/ATS when playing without rest this season. Karl Anthony Towns had a monster game last night in their OT loss in Atlanta with 35 points and 18 rebounds, but he’ll have a very hard time duplicating those numbers against the defensive minded center for Indiana, Miles Turner. The Wolves have just 1 road win in their last seven away from home and that came against the lowly Knicks. The Pacers on the other hand are 12-3 SU their last 15 at home and the three losses came to the Bucks, Warriors and 76ers. Of those 12 wins only ONE came by less than 8-points and ALL twelve came by 4 or more points. With the 76ers nipping at the Pacers heels in the East we like them to get this home win by 8 or more.

ASA play on: #526 LA Lakers -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:30PM ET – If you’ve read our opinions on LeBron and the Lakers you clearly know where we stand on this subject. I personally feel LeBron is a fraud and all this drama this season surrounding the trade deadline was caused by him (and his agent). He knew what the roster was going into the season but was more concerned at that time about the glitz and glam of Hollywood. You make your bed, you must sleep in it. But that’s a side point and I got distracted. When it comes to investing, we put all of that aside though as it’s about the Benjamins and how many we can take from the Books. We are betting the Lakers show up tonight as this game is on national TV and the Pelicans just beat them the other night which helped escalate all the talk in the media. The Lakers were JUST FAVORED by -6.5-points IN NEW ORLEANS and now are laying less than that here? So, what you’re telling me is that the Lakers just got 10-points worse in 5 days? Yeah, no way. The Pelicans are just 9-23 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of -1.8PPG. Digging deeper we find the Pels are just 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Lakers most recent home game was a 5-point win over Houston so asking them to cover this number is not too much to ask for. With Anthony Davis having a limited role for New Orleans it only adds to our confidence in our wager as we know they won’t jeopardize his trade value by playing him late in this contest. The Lakers get revenge here and win by double-digits!

ASA play on: #526 Sacramento Kings +6.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET – The Sacramento Kings have been VERY good to us this season as we’ve won nearly every time we’ve bet on or against them. The Bucks continue to hold the best record in the NBA at 46-14 SU and the public has taken notice. Most of the tickets and money tonight has been bet on the Bucks. That’s perfect for us as it gives us added value with the up-and-coming Kings.  Milwaukee is 14-6 SU against the West this season but just 10-10 ATS which tells us they haven’t been good versus the West as a favorite. The East has improved dramatically but the West is still deeper from top to bottom. Proof of that is Sacramento’s 14-5-1 ATS record (14-6 SU) against the East and they are currently 9th in the West. The Kings recently played 3 games against three of the best teams in the West on the road. They lost to the Warriors by 2, Denver by 2 and beat the Thunder. They return home off a road loss, facing a public team like Milwaukee which will have their full attention. The Bucks have a solid +6.6 points per game road differential this season, but that number is inflated by some blowout road wins over the weaker teams in the East (+14PPG in 6 games against the likes of Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, New York and Cleveland). Sacramento is 9-1 SU their last ten home games, prior to that they were home dogs to Golden State and Denver, and they lost both by just 4-points each. This is an easy call with the young Sacramento Kings at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion.  This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such.  They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake.  We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success.  That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53.  The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51.  It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game.  Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC.  Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits.  One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road.  Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes.  So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road.   Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win.  UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year.  They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%.  On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency.  While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense.  Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories.  As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are.  When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60.  Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home.  We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team.  While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation.  They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one.  On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications.  The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it.  The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game.  The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called.  LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80.  They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned.  Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year.  You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight.  A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January.  Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row.  In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%).  Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight.  While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points.  The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less.  This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games.  The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play.  Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so).  After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here.  They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa.  A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team.  OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland.  Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern.  The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting.  They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency.  OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting.  That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100.  Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts).  OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points.  Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost.  Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now.  They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best.  Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana.  Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten.  Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later.  The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa?  Hmmm…  We like Ohio State here.

ASA play on: #568 Miami Heat -8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET – The Suns are obviously one of the teams currently in the NBA that are “not tryin for Zion”. Phoenix has lost 17 straight games and 24 of their last 26. They have some ugly road losses in that stretch too. In their two most recent road games they’ve lost to the Hawks by 8 and the Cavs by 13 who are two of the other worst teams in the league. The last time the Suns won a road game was back on December 26th in Orlando and 11 of their last fourteen road beats has come by 8 or more points. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and currently sit a game-and-a-half behind Charlotte for the 8th and final spot. Miami has lost two straight with the most recent being an upset at home to a hot Detroit team, so I expect them to bounce back here. Phoenix has an average differential on the road of -13PPG which is the worst number in the NBA and if the Heat can’t beat the Suns at home by double-digits who can they beat that badly at home? We will go contrarian here and lay the points with Miami when most will stay away from this bet.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON Calgary Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET - The Flames are -250 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Calgary by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at a pick'em price and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Flames win by two or more goals. The Flames did win at Ottawa last season but they are also still seeking a measure of revenge for a 6-0 home loss to Ottawa last season. That defeat was one of the worst home ice defeats for Calgary in recent memory. Right now the Flames are surging and have won 4 straight games while the Senators have lost 3 straight games! Not only has Ottawa allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their last 3 games, they've lost their last two games by a combined score of 7-0. If you expect the Flames to win this game (as you well should as a -250 favorite) you can also reasonably expect them to win by a multiple goal margin. A solid 24 of Calgary's 38 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. As for the slumping Senators - playing out the string on another disappointing season - 25 of their last 38 losses have come by a multiple goal margin. This revenge game has road rout written all over it. By the way, the Flames are 10-2 in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. It is payback time here. Laying the 1.5 goals for a small price with Calgary is the value play here.

ASA play on: #824 Southern Illinois +1 over Loyola Chicago, 4PM ET – The first thing that jumped out to us was the line on this game and the value. These same two teams recently met in Loyola which had the Ramblers as a 5-point favorite at some Books. That tells us the Salukis should be -3.5-points here just based on the previous meeting. When you also look at Southern Illinois most recent home game which had them a -5.5-point favorite at home against Drake who rates the same as Loyola in our power rankings. Loyola is 3-3 SU their last six games and have allowed their last five opponents to shoot an average of 47%. On the road this season the Ramblers have a negative differential of -4.4-points per game. Southern Illinois has held foes to under 42% shooting in their building this season and have won 3 of their last four at home. The Salukis are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MVC and those second chance opportunities will be the difference in this huge conference game.

ASA play on: #555 Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 3:35PM ET – This is a great spot to play on the Magic and against the Raptors. Orlando went into the All-Star break on a solid streak by winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last eight games overall. They then came out of the break and were upset by the Bulls as an 8-point chalk. That will have them refocused here in Toronto. The Raptors may not be dialed in here today for the following reasons. One, they are coming off a huge home win versus the Spurs which was DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto, along with Leonard facing his former team. Two, the Raptors have a HUGE game on deck against Boston. Three, the Raptors beat the Magic by 29-points earlier this year so it will be easy to overlook them. In their last eight road games the Magic’s largest negative differential was -10-points in OKC. Their other road losses have come by 5, 4 and 5-points. The Raptors have one of the best home records in the NBA at 25-5 SU with a +8.1-point differential but clearly that differential won’t get the cover here. Toronto is just 8-15 ATS when laying 9 or more points this season. Grab the generous points and Orlando in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers (35-23 ATS). Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Thunder have similar numbers offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings, but OKC is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th) and score 113.6PPG which is 9th in the NBA. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 44% shooting and that includes two games against the other two best teams in the West, Denver and Golden Stage. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma City who has allowed opponents to hit nearly 47% of their attempts in their last five.  The Kings were recently a 7-point dog in Denver (who we rate better than OKC) and lost by just 2 points. Sacramento was just +12 in Golden State and took the Warriors to the wire, losing by just 2. The Kings last four road games have been decided by 2, 2, 4 and a 3-point win. OKC is coming off a double OT game last night versus Utah which saw Westbrook play 42+ minutes, George 50+, Adams 47+. The Thunder were a 4-point favorite last night and their isn’t much difference between the Kings and Jazz currently. The Kings 6-1 ATS steak versus the Thunder improves by a ‘W’ tonight. Grab the points!

CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15.  First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12.  Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests.  He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG.  The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play.  WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games.  They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday.  Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG.  They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since.  Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games.  They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall.  That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday.  He will be a game time decision for this one.  Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU.  Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game.  He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court.   The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago.  Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.

ASA NBA play on: #529 Utah Jazz +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35PM ET – The Jazz knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season and OKC has gotten their revenge on Utah twice already this season. With this being the 3rd meeting of the season that ‘revenge’ angle has worn off. Last night we liked Boston and the points over Milwaukee because of the edge with a good coach and extra time to prepare which is much like tonight’s contest with Quin Snyder and the Jazz. Utah is one of the better road teams in the NBA with a 14-15 SU record and a differential of +.2 which is 7th best in the league. They have been especially good off a loss with a 15-9 SU record, 14-3 ATS their last seventeen in that situation. Overall, as a dog in this price range the Jazz are 7-4 ATS this season. Oklahoma is clearly a team that could come out of the West (as is Utah) and they’ve been red hot of late with a 12-2 SU run, but only five of those wins have come against teams with an above .500 record. The line on this game is very inviting to bet OKC which has a ton of public money and tickets, so we’ll obviously bet the other way. Take Utah plus the points!

ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record?  Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite.  That would be a mistake in our opinion.  App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward.  They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games.  Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball.  They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points.  It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT.  They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington.  That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them.  They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch.  They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%.  Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion.  They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4.  All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games.  Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play.  Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt.  Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games.  GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home.  They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable.  Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74.  App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79.  These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued.  They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play.  However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road.  They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point.  This Clemson team is better than their record.  They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16.  They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot.  They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia.  The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times.  At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum.  FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games.  Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play.  With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way.  FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security.  The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year.  Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College.  Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite.  Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot.  The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson.  We’ll side with the Tigers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday.  We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa.  We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort.  Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed.  The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.”  Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating.  As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat.  The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou.  The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits.  A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games.  Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8.  Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7.  That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up.  The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games.  They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th).  Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed.  Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team.  After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction.  That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win.  They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins.  Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall.  That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now.  Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend.  The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright.  Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend.  It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker.  Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year.  They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less.  Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG.  They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering.  Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc.  They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up.  The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here.  There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play.  Take Bradley.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1

These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising.  The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc.  They also hit 81% at the FT line.  Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep.  Even with that, the game was not a blowout.  It landed right around where tonight’s number sits.  Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight.  It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch.  The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers.  While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high.  To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot.  Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it.  We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5.  The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both.  UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5.  While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight.  We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game.  The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close.  Take the points.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win.  The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire.  Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game.  They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining.  The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3.  They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road.  Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5.  Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games.  Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable?  We’d say an easy win and we expect that today.  Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers.  The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points.  Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home.  On the road it’s been a different story for this team.  After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home.  They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home.  The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points.  We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today.  That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both.  We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play).  ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us.  We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73.  We’re back on Arizona State here.  We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State.  They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton.  It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good.  If not, they tend to play down to their competition.  ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah.  In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs.  They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line.  Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game).  That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP.  That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win.  It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it.  The Devils will be ready here.  Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12.  Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon.  Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above).  Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona.  It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona.  This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten.  The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12.  The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON IPFW +3.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

We might see UNO come out a bit flat here.  They just won a huge home game on Thursday night beating 1st place South Dakota State by 1 point.  It was a game they trailed by 16 in the 2nd half and made a furious rally for the win.  Omaha trailed for most of the game but scored with 1 second left for the 85-84 win.  It’s going to be tough for the Mavs to come back again just 2 days later and play at their peak vs a team they already beat this year.  These two met just a few weeks ago and IPFW was a -3.5 point favorite at home.  IPFW led by 17 with 12:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew the lead and lost at home in overtime.  The Mastodons have been a solid road team this year winning 4 of their 6 Summit League road games.  They sit at 9-3 overall in conference play, just a half game behind Saturday’s opponent Nebraska Omaha who is in 2nd place at 9-2.  These two offenses are nearly dead even ranking 1st (Omaha) and 2nd (IPFW) in Summit League play.  However, Fort Wayne has the edge defensively ranking better than UNO in most of the key categories.  The underdog is 11-1 ATS in this series and we like IPFW to pull off the upset here.  Take the points.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -3 over Florida, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

We’ve been successful using Alabama at home getting ATS wins vs Ole Miss & Mississippi State.  We also faded the Tide on Tuesday of this week when they traveled to Mississippi State and picked up an easy win.  That’s a perfect 3-0 ATS for us this year when we play on or against Alabama.  We expect another win on Saturday as we take the Crimson Tide at home.  They’ve been very good at Coleman Coliseum picking up home wins vs 3 of the top 5 teams on in the SEC (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss).  The other two teams rated in the top 5 (Tennessee & LSU) have not yet played @ Bama.  Their only home loss in SEC play was vs A&M by 1-point on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer by the Aggies.  We like this spot for the Tide back at home after a loss.  They shoot very well here and are averaging 80 PPG on their home court.  That’s a tough situation for a Florida team that struggles offensively, especially on the road.  In their 7 true road games, the Gators are averaging only 60 PPG while shooting a terrible 37%.  They’ve only topped 62 points one time this year on the road in SEC play.  They have won only one SEC road game and that was vs a Georgia team that is the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference.  Three of the Gators five conference wins have come vs the bottom 3 teams in the league (Georgia, Vandy, and A&M).  They are the worst in the conference at getting points inside the arc, yet they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team (33% in SEC games – 9th in the league).  They also rarely get to the FT line.  You can see why this team struggles to score.  They won’t get many extra chances either as Alabama is the much better rebounding team ranking 5th in the SEC compared to Florida who is dead last.  The Gators come in off a win over the worst team in the conference (Vandy) now facing a Bama team that is 4-1 SU following a conference loss this season.  Alabama has already beaten 3 teams at home that are better than Florida and we see no reason they don’t win this one.  Take the Crimson Tide

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON UW Green Bay -4.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

This game has a number of solid situations in favor of Green Bay.  First Detroit is playing their 4th consecutive road game in just 10 days.  After getting blown out at Northern Kentucky and at Wright State, the Titans were able to pull off a small upset on Thursday night beating UW Milwaukee by 6.  The Panthers actually outplayed Detroit making 10 more field goals and outrebounding the Titans.  So how did Detroit pull off the win?  The foul disparity was ridicuously lopsided with Detroit making 31 FTs to just 7 for the home team.  You don’t often see a home team get “reverse homered” by the refs like that.  Good thing for Detroit as despite being +24 at the FT line the game vs UWM still went to the wire.  Don’t expect Detroit to get that benefit on Saturday.  That win pushed the Titans road record to 4-11 on the season with 3 of those wins coming against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Horizon League (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, and Milwaukee).  This team is simply not used to success away from home going just 9-36 SU their last 45 road games.  In their 15 road games Detroit is averaging 67 PPG (way down from their home average of 79 PPG) and shooting only 39%.  That won’t keep up here vs a UWGB team that averages 85 PPG at home having scored at least 90 points in 7 of their 11 at home (9-2 home record).  The Phoenix have been waiting patiently for this rematch.  They went to Detroit earlier in the season in a pick-em game and the Titans dominated 101-82 making over 53% of their shots.  It was by far the most points GB has given up in conference play this year and they were embarrassed by their effort on that end of the court.  They played very well defensively on Thursday holding a high scoring Oakland team (75 PPG average) to just 54 points in the 12-point Green Bay win.  We expect that to carry over here and we’re positive they’ll be very focused defensively and remember, Detroit has been poor offensively on the road this year.  Speaking of poor, when the Titans lose on the road, it’s not close as all 11 of their road losses have come by double digits.  Green Bay gets a big win on Saturday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now.  We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga.  They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley).  San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few.  So why are they just 5-5 in league play?  Injuries.  Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January.  Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game.  That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters.  They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine.  San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out.  This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season.  BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued.  They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC.  However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight.  The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively.  Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy.  Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13.  Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13.  Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year.  The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego.  This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington.  We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona.  On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather.  The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win.  Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road.  Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC.  The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch.  They could easily on a 5-1 run right now.  CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center.  Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road.  Arizona State has been all over the board this year.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season.  They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt.  Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona.  We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss.  These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss.  The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots.  That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight.  Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12.  Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State.  The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Sacramento +7.5 over Denver, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET

The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Nuggets have similar numbers defensive when it comes to efficiency ratings, but Denver is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th). Denver had lost 3 in a row on a road trip then came home and caught the Heat in a perfect letdown situation the other night for a solid home win. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 43% shooting. The same can’t be said for Denver who has allowed opponents to hit over 48% of their attempts in their last five. Sacramento hasn’t had much success in Denver, but they are a completely different team right now playing with confidence. Grab the generous points with the Kings who will keep this close throughout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2

SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite.  This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are.  The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351).  They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road.  Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game).  It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend.  Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play.  Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once.  Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league.  The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference).  They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena.  San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00  PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game).  The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot.  MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC.  Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points.  The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not.  Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes.  Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road.  That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising.  After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating.  Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC.  They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC).  This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday.  The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago.  We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points.  The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game.  This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court).  Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games.  They’ve played just one home game since January 14th.  The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games.  They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime.  However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT.  Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th.  Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards.  While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams.  The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league).  The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season.  That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game.  If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%.  These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2.  Tonight they get the home win.  Take Maryland.

ASA play on: #568 Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – From a scheduling standpoint you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play on Denver and against Miami. The Heat are off a demoralizing loss at Golden State yesterday, playing tonight without rest in the higher altitude and this is their 3rd game in four nights. Denver on the other hand just suffered a 3-game road losing streak and saw their lead over OKC for the second spot in the West shrink to just 1 game and now trail Golden State by 3.  Denver has the leagues best home record of 23-4 SU and the second-best home differential of 12PPG. Prior to beating Portland on this current road trip, the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential (+.4), BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Miami is 4-3 SU when playing the second night of a back to back but this situation is different considering what they are coming off and where they play tonight. Miami was just +13.5 points at Golden State and +7 in Portland so you can see for yourself this line is too low based previous spreads. Denver is nearly equal to Golden State and we feel this line should be -11.5 or -12 at the very least. In fact, the Nuggets were recently -10 against Philly at home and are laying less here. The Nugs are on a 20-8 spread run at home and have covered 4 of their last five versus teams with winning road records. The bet here is clearly Denver!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times.  IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8.  OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6.  The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games.  They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State.  Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing.  IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers.  Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4.  Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska).  The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG.  Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%.  OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team.  The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation.  IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here.  We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win. 

ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN

Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right?  The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4.  We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago.  Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60.  The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game.  It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012.  Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State.  That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances.  This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few.  With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61.  This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington.  We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean.  Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even.  The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be.  As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12.  They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road.  Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed.  The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall.  Take Arizona State at home.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON West Virginia +5 over Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - On ESPN2

We feel this WVU team is a very dangerous one at home.  They are having a down year with a record of just 10-13 overall, however they are a very good program that is very well coached under Bob Huggins.  We felt they’d get much better as they season has gone on and they have, especially at home.  They have won 2 of their last 3 home games with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma.  After their win over the Sooners here last Saturday, WVU went on the road and got smoked to Texas Tech which wasn’t a huge surprise off their big home win.  It’s also helping the line value here in our opinion.  Texas is off a big home win over a red hot Baylor team.  The Horns also have a huge home game on deck next week vs 1st place Kansas State.  This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns who are just 1-5 SU on the road in conference play.  UT has simply been a terrible road team in Big 12 play winning just 2 of their last 23 conference road games.  Not only are they being asked to win this road game – which they obviously very rarely do – they need to win by a solid margin as a road favorite.  These two met in January @ Texas and the Horns were far from dominant in the 61-54 home win.  WVU has confidence here after their recent play at home and that should be bolstered by the way they played @ Texas last month.  We think the Mountaineers have a solid shot at the win here and we’ll take the points.   

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Baylor -2.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN2

The Bears are in a great spot at home for this game.  Baylor was red hot winning 6 straight games (4 by double digits) before losing @ Texas earlier this week.  That dropped them to 7-3 in league play, 1-game behind their opponent on Saturday, KSU.  The catch the Wildcats in a definite letdown spot as they won their “game of the year” earlier this week beating arch rival Kansas (we were on KSU).  While the Wildcats are not a great offensive team, they rely heavily on their defense to win games.  The problem for KSU besides the situation is this, Baylor’s defensive numbers are nearly just as good as KSU’s yet the Bears offense is much better.  They both allow just 41% shooting on the year so a wash there, Baylor’s offense ranks #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, #1 in eFG%, and #1 in 3-point FG%.  The Bears are also the best offensive rebounding team AND the best defensive rebounding team in the conference so their opponents do not get many extra opportunities while Baylor does.  With their marksmanship from deep (40% and #1 in the conference) the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Wildcat defense that is dead last in the league defending the arc.  We expect Kansas State to have problems on offense as they shoot just 39% on the road this year.  BU has covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS setback coming by a point and half.  This sets up perfectly in our opinion and we’ll lay the small number with Baylor. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Marquette -1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on FOX

It’s pretty much a Marquette – Villanova battle for the Big East Title.  With 8 games remaining Nova sits at 10-0 with Marquette at 8-2 – everyone else has at least 5 losses.  Nova is off an OT win at home on Wednesday over Creighton.  Three Wildcat starters topped 40 minutes in that game.  The Cats are very thin with Jay Wright normally playing just 7 players so that could be a factor here off a big OT win.  Marquette comes in off a 1-point home loss on Tuesday to St Johns.  It was the Eagles first home loss of the season.  That game was on Tuesday giving  them an extra day to prepare and with the game at home, really 2 extra days to prepare.  The Wildcats offense has look very good as of late but keep in mind they’ve played 6 straight games vs teams ranked 5th or lower in the Big East in defensive efficiency.  Now they face a much improved Marquette defense that ranks #1 in the conference in eFG% defense and 2nd in defensive efficiency.  At home, Marquette has held opponents to just 62 PPG on 37% shooting.  Offensively the Eagles rank #1 in the Big East in 3-point FG% (40%), #1 in FT% (79%) and 3rd in eFG%.  They have shot very well at the new Fiserv Forum (Bucks NBA Arena) which is a big arena which has been tough on opponents with only 2 of their 15 foes reaching 1.00 point per possession here.  We expect the Wildcats to have some problems offensively while Marquette should play well on that end of the court vs a Villanova defense that allows 48% on the road.  Marquette is 14-1 at home and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Buffalo here at Fiserv.  This is pretty much a must win game for Marquette or they fall 3 full games behind Nova.  Coming off their first home loss, we like the Eagles to win this one.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season).  Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets).  Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We’ve been waiting for the trade deadline to pass before making any selections today as the impact of players being moved can be dramatic and traumatic for teams. The Wolves weren’t in a position to make a move and Orlando made a minor deal so we’re good to go with this wager. The Wolves are coming off a very tough stretch of games against the Jazz (2), Memphis (2) and Denver so I doubt they have much left in their tanks to face Orlando. The Magic won 2 straight at home prior to a road loss in OKC in their most recent outing. Orlando’s home wins were solid as they came against a hot Nets team and the Pacers. These two teams met in early January with the Wolves trouncing the Magic by 17-points. That was at home though and now this game is in Orlando which is a big deal when it comes to the Wolves. Minnesota is 8-18 SU on the road this year with one of the worst point differentials of -4.7PPG. They shoot just 44% on the road and allow opponents to hit over 47% of their attempts. Orlando has covered 15 of the last twenty meetings and we expect that trend to continue.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET

We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats.  They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5).  They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses.  On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records.  The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC.   Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference.  They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4.  Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate.  The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4.  That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team.  They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee.  The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here.  Cincy is vulnerable on the road.  They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league).  Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it.  The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt

The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion.  They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida).  LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss.  Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4.  Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win.  It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally.  The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost.  We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road.  Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race.   They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday.  The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark.  MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits.  We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in.  Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas.  We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are 3 to 1 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Toronto by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at a pick'em price and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Leafs win by two or more goals. The Maple Leafs are seeking revenge for a loss at Ottawa very early this season. That defeat came by a multiple goal margin as did Toronto's big win over the Senators when they most recently hosted them. Right now the Leafs are surging with positive momentum across the board as they are off a 6-1 win versus the Ducks, just signed Auston Matthews to a contract extensions, and the acquisition of Jake Muzzin from the Kings is already paying dividends. If you expect the Leafs to win this game (as you well should as a -300 favorite) you can also reasonably expect them to win by a multiple goal margin. Amazingly, 25 of Toronto's last 30 wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. As for the slumping Senators - playing out the string on another disappointing season - 22 of their last 32 losses have come by a multiple goal margin. This revenge game has home blowout written all over it. By the way, the Maple Leafs are 14-5 this season when playing with revenge. It is payback time here. Laying the 1.5 goals for a small price with Toronto is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2

The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno).  They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that.  They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State.  The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s.  That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here.  Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State.  The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season.  They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams).  It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59.  Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31.  In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part.  They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58!  That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1.  In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66.  San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot.  SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back  to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite.  Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN

Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU.  They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile.  Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today.  Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at.  KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum.  Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season.  The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage.  This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games.  They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road.  It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury.  The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight.  Take Kansas State.

ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH

These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss.  The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog.  It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points.  Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place.  They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team.  Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for.  This is the Birds biggest home game of the season.  Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.  They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season.  Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season.  They want this one badly.  ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup.  They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG).  They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season.  The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6).  They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48).  Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively.  Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode.  Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games.  It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2.  We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET

These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road.  That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings.  The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining.  UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots.  Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line.  The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team.  That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then.  In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team.  They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting.  Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%.  The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG.  UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots.  The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG.  UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass.  Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here.  The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation.  We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH

We love the way this one sets up.  WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA.  They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion.  They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now.  If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league.  They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss.  They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily.  It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA.  The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY.  That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers.  Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play.  Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half  (7) of the league.  Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss.  One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1.  We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least.  Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play.  They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB.  UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem.  The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight.  We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion.  They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play.  The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice.  They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston.  This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road.  Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year.  They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season.  The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend.  Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%.  Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep.  Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally).  They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally.  Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road.  Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games.  Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits.  We like Tulsa getting points at home here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

This is a massively important game for Butler.  They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East.  They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton.  The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion.  They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette.  Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season.  They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th.  They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year.  Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting.  After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight.  However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East.  Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings.  On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win.  The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot.  They have very little inside game.  36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play.  The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench.  Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here.  The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette.  We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team.  That should tell you something.  Butler is the side here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry.  Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so.  However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home.  They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road.  They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point.  Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance.  UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play.  They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play.  The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points.  They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well.  They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC.  While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league).  UNLV should be able to take advantage of that.  This line is too high in our opinion.  Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St).  Those results set this one up nicely for the home team.  Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5.  Now they are laying nearly double digits.  Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.

ASA play on: Philadelphia 76ers -7 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We like the situation with the 76ers coming off a blowout loss in Denver a few nights ago, while the Lakers are off a win over the Suns. Philly’s big stars of Embiid and Butler will be in the line up tonight for this TNT game in Los Angeles. The Lakers though have some key injuries with Kuzma (?), Ball and James out. The Lakers defense has not been good of late as they’ve given up 120 or more points in regulation in 4 of their last five games. Philly is 6-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here in this marquee matchup. Based on the betting markets and line fluctuations it’s an easy call for us on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday.  So Kentucky’s the play here right?  It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle.  First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here.  In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game.  Not once.  Their biggest lead was 11.  Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena.  UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend.  Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck.  Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU.  In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT.  This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky.  This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits.  Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here.  We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win.  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.  Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining.  The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark.  Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor.  It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition.  Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama.  They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next.  The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here.  They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago.  The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy.  MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field.  We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding).  They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc.  We really like Alabama in this spot.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON New Jersey Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The first games after the All Star break tend to be played with a bit of rust on the players' games. They've had a layoff and it shows so the games have a tendency to be tight and low-scoring. This of course favors the dogs and in a case like this we have great value with the puck line. By laying a small price we get New Jersey +1.5 goals and that is a huge value here. The Devils have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Penguins and the lone loss came by a single goal so it did cash on the puck line for New Jersey. Also, Pittsburgh stumbled into the break as they lost 3 of their last 4 games and the lone win came by a single goal. We wouldn't be surprised to see this game stay very tight all the way and that means great value with the big dog Devils in this one. NJ has lost 3 straight games but they are 6-3 in that situation this season and again we've got the +1.5 goals as added insurance here. Pittsburgh is 8-11 this season when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. The Devils have proven they match up well with the Pens and we expect those match-up edges to be a factor again on Monday. Grabbing the 1.5 goals for a small price with New Jersey is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record.  Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record.  The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops.  That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers.  This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above.  That’s too easy.  While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall.  Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home.  They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season.  Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home.  Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago.  Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home.  First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago.  Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch.  That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win.  Both teams took 64 shots and made 31.  Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona).  The rebounds were pretty much dead even.  The difference?  Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona.  We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield.  The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET

The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win.  In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games.  They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71.  Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game.  Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference.  No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play.  Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up.  This is a must win for Stanford.  They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion.  First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.  Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego.  In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference.  Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal.  One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall.  It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving.  CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire.  Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford).  We really like the match for Stanford as well.  Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc.  The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference).   On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league).  This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win.  Take Stanford.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record.  That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now.  They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant.  They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points.  The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire.  This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here.  They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year).  Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year.  UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion.  The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road.  They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night.  Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday.  Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one.  These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU.  The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one.   UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average).  The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET

This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation.  There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU.  The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season.  They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76.  It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4.  We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title.  Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points).  Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide).  That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels.  Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents.  They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc).  That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to.  Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team.  The Rebs dominated that game 82-67.  Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th.  The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later.  Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here.  The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road.  The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land.  After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home.  Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play.  Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games.  BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home.  The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga.  They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field.  Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here.  It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH

These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play).  However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game.  Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points.  Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference).  USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points.  The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA.  Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU).  Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all.  The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site).  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games).  WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.  The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5.  Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games.  Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points.  Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents).  Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013.  Hilltoppers cruise here.      

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout.  We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength.  Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play.  The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here.  They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton.  It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road.  They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin.  They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday.  On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9.  They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games.  UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion.  They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10).  The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play.  Lay the small number with UMass here. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS).  We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday.  Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat.  LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff.  That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground.  In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday.  That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that.  If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long.  Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career.  The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games.  Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road).  The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games).  They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game.  We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch.  If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games.  Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards).  We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit.  The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more.  Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game.  It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday.  Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma State +13.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for ISU.  After losing back to back games vs Baylor & Kansas State, the Cyclones went on the road this week in a close to must win spot @ Texas Tech.  We were on ISU and they played great as we expected and pulled the upset.  Now they come home and play an Oklahoma State team they’ve already beaten this year and ISU goes to Kansas on Monday.  To be entirely focused on this Cowboy team when considering the circumstances will be tough.  That would be a mistake because OSU has been playing very well and they’ve been competitive in every Big 12 game despite their 2-3 conference record.  Their losses have come by 4, 6, and 10 points with the latter coming @ Oklahoma in a game that was a 4-point game with just 4:00 remaining.  In their last 3 games OSU beat Texas at home, beat WVU on the road, and then blew a 2nd half lead and lost to Baylor by 4.  In the first meeting between these 2 in early January, the Cowboys led at half and never trailed by more than 7 points in the 2nd half.  ISU won 69-63 in a game they led by just 3 points with 2:00 remaining.  OSU outrebounded the Cyclones but were -8 in made FT’s which turned out to be the difference in the game.  ISU shoots a lot of 3’s and the struggled in that game hitting only 30% (on 30 attempts).  We don’t see that changing here as the Cowboys are 2nd in the Big 12 at defending the 3 (in league play) allowing only 29%.  If ISU doesn’t go off from deep in this game, we feel Oklahoma State can hang around just as they did a few weeks ago.  OSU should have some confidence after playing Iowa State to the wire while the Cyclones will be peaking ahead to their date with Kansas in just 2 days.  Take the double digits here.    

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -1 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

The Broncos are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Because they have a losing record (8-9) they are undervalued right now.  The started the season winning just 5 of their first 13 games which was a bit surprising as they returned 4 of their top 7 players from a team that finished last year with a 23-9 record.  After their slow start they have now won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming earlier this week vs #10 Nevada.  That was a game Boise led and had the ball with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but lost 72-71.  That’s the same Nevada team that won by 10 @ Fresno last Saturday.  Head coach Leon Rice has mentioned how much the defense has improved over the last month and the numbers support that as the Broncos have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession.  The only offense as of late that was able to top that was Nevada who has the 18th most efficient offense in the country and they barely got over 1.00 PPP (1.03).  Fresno relies very heavily on the 3-point shot (38.7 % of their points – 38th nationally) which we are always wary of when teams go on the road.  The 3-point shot doesn’t always travel well and Boise allows just 32% from deep at home.  Fresno has played a very easy schedule having faced only two teams ranked inside the top 115 since November 23.  They are 2-1 on the road, however their wins came against San Jose State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Utah State (a game FSU didn’t have a lead until the final shot of the game – 78-77 win).  Boise has a very good home court advantage – 20-4 since the start of last season – and simply need to win here.  The undervalued Broncos get the home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in.  This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team.  They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road.  Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog.  After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well.  They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT.  WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half.  They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9).  They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record.  The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win.  That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column.  We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati.  They are not playing at the top of their game right now.  After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games.  They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home.  Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above.  They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG.  Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to.  This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog.  The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog.  They do the same here.  Wichita pulls the upset.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Indiana +7.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

The Hoosiers are in a somewhat desperate spot here coming off 3 straight losses and we look for an all out effort vs their in state rival.  IU is coming off losses @ Michigan and @ Maryland and then a home setback at the hands of Nebraska.  They played Michigan (lost by 9) & Maryland (lost by 2 – blew a 14 point lead) very tough on the road and then played perhaps their worst game of the year at home vs the Huskers on Monday. In that 66-51 loss to Nebraska the Hoosiers shot only 36% overall and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts.  It was just one of those games where everything went wrong.  We love looking at good teams coming off embarrassing losses.  Purdue, on the other hand, won at Wisconsin in OT last weekend and then crushed Rutgers here on Tuesday.  Off those games, the Boilers could be a bit overvalued now.  We feel this is a very good match up for Indiana.  The Boilers rely VERY heavily on the 3 point shot with a whopping 41% of their points coming from deep (14th nationally).  However IU defends the arc very well allowing opponents to make only 29% of their shots from beyond the arc.  In their last 3 games vs solid 3-point shooting teams (Michigan, Maryland, and Nebraska) the Hoosiers held them to a combined 20 of 65 from deep (30%).  If Purdue struggles from beyond the arc, they are in trouble.  That’s because they don’t score consistently inside the arc (322nd in 2 point scoring percentage) and they don’t get to the line often (311th in FT scoring percentage).  Indiana is a decent 3-point shooting game (35%) and Purdue stinks at defending the arc (306th nationally).  The Hoosiers are also very good at scoring inside making 58% of their shots from 2-point land (7th nationally).  We’re getting value with the number as well here.  IU was just a 9 point dog @ Michigan and a 5-point dog @ Maryland.  Those numbers tell us this number should be closer to +5, not +7.5.  We think IU has a shot to pull the upset here and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for OSU.  They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0.  Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game.  OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State.  The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win.  The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU.  Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year.  They play very hard and play excellent defense.  Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road.  They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs).  Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game.  Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them.  This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins.  They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3.  Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game.  Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win.  Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt.  Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here.  This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do.  Take the Buckeyes.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -13.5 over Chicago Bulls, Thurs 9PM ET –The Bulls are wrapping up a brutal 5 game West Coast road trip against some of the better teams in the league and fatigue will be an issue tonight. They really couldn’t go into Denver in a worse situation as the Nuggets were just embarrassed on their home court Tuesday night by the Warriors. In fact, the Nuggets were in a similar situation earlier this year coming off a bad loss to Houston at home, then hosting Atlanta who they crushed by 45-points. Denver (18-4 SU at home) has the 5th best home point differential in the NBA at +9.3PPG. Chicago has the 6th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.7PPG. The Bulls are 3-16 SU against the West this season with an average differential of -10.7PPG. On the road the numbers are worse for Chicago as they sport a 1-9 SU road record against the West with an average loss margin of 13.4PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home versus the East this season, 5-0 their last five with an average margin of victory of 20PPG. Denver is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season and they won’t let up in this game with just the Cavaliers on deck. Lay it!