ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105

Last season these teams also met in Duke's ACC opener. At the time the Blue Devils were rolling along with a 4-0 start to the season and had moved into the Top 25 for the first time. That came to an abrupt halt when, after 4 straight wins by an average victory of margin of 22.3 points per game, Duke got upended as a 7 point home favorite and lost by 17 points to Virginia Tech. The fact is that the Hokies have been a "thorn in the side" of David Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils and there is nothing sweeter than getting revenge in "their house" in a weeknight primetime game with the ESPN cameras rolling. Duke opened this season getting a beatdown at the hands of Alabama - just as most teams do when they face the Crimson Tide - but the Blue Devils responded with back to back dominating wins over much softer competition. The Hokies have been much less impressive as they opened the season losing at Boston College and Virginia Tech was favored in that game. The Hokies then followed that up with a couple of victories against lesser competition but they were very unimpressive in those games. Virginia Tech struggled against both Old Dominion and Furman in non-covering wins. The Hokies actually trailed Furman 14 to 3 at the half two weeks ago! Duke QB Quentin Harris is a senior and has run the ball well in addition to putting up solid numbers through the air. Harris will take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that fell off drastically last year (31 ppg and 439 ypg). Early indications this season are that the Hokies defensive struggles will continue in conference play as Boston College had 432 yards against Virginia Tech in the season opener (and conference opener) for the Hokies. In terms of Virginia Tech's history against Duke (with David Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils head coach), the dog has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, both teams enter off a bye week but it is the Blue Devils that have covered 5 in a row ATS when they are an underdog coming off a bye. Additionally, when Duke is off a non-conference game and on the road against a conference foe, the Blue Devils have covered 9 of the last 10 times. This is a triple revenge spot for Cutcliffe's team and they are undervalued considering how poorly Virginia Tech has played on both sides of the ball this season. Grab the points with Duke as a road dog in early evening action Friday.

ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is simply a huge game for the Eagles.  They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East.  Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0.  On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie.  At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down.  They’ve definitely had their chances.  If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses.  Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG.  They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL).  While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now.  As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense.  It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game).  The offensive numbers have been poor.  They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL).  They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play.  The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets.   That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer.  Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas.  Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now.  Take the points with Philadelphia.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers are 2-0 however we’re not sure they deserve to be a TD+ favorite in this spot.  Their first two wins have come by 7 & 5 over division rivals Bears & Vikings.  Now playing an AFC team with a Thursday night meeting vs Philadelphia on deck in not an ideal situation for Green Bay.  The Packer offense is still a work in progress and we don’t see them pulling away from anyone right now.  They’ve been outgained by 127 yards in their 2 games.  They were very fortunate in last week’s win over the Vikings as the Minnesota offense tallied an impressive 7.0 yards per play while the Packers only put up 4.9 YPP.  This is a huge game for Denver as they cannot afford to drop to 0-3.  Unlike the Packers, the Broncos have outgained each of their first two opponents including Chicago last week (+99 yards for Denver).  While Denver’s offense seems to be in question, they put up 273 yards on 4.9 YPP and 21 first downs in their 1-point loss to Chicago last week.  Compare that to Green Bay’s offense that tallied just 213 total yards on 3.7 YPP and only 13 first downs vs the same Chicago defense a week earlier.  Where this total sits at 43 the expected final score is Green Bay 25, Denver 17 or so.  With Packer offense sputtering early in the year, we don’t expect them to light up a very solid Denver defense.  The Broncos have allowed just 5 of their last 23 opponents to top 24 points and we don’t expect Green Bay to do so on Sunday.  Tough to lay over a TD with GB’s sputtering offense vs a team that is in a do or die spot.  Take the points with Denver.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be.  The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis.  That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts.  We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota.  The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener.  While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16.  Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday.  While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season.  That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota.  The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game.  The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them.

ASA 8* NFL PLAY ON Cincinnati +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We were on Cincy last week and they were embarrassed at home losing 41-17 vs the Niners.  We expect them to bounce back and play very well this weekend as NFL teams that get beat by 20+ points and are underdogs the following week cover 56% of the time long term.  Let’s not forget that the Bengals played very well in their season opener taking Seattle to the wire on the road before losing 21-20.  The outgained the Seahawks by 197 yards in that game!  Now sitting at 0-2, the Bengals know they cannot afford another loss so expect an all out effort here.  Buffalo is solid but now they’ve become overvalued in our opinion.  We were on the Bills in week one as a +2.5 dog @ the Jets and they won 17-16.  Last week they played the hapless Giants winning 28-14 but they were only +18 in total yardage in that game.  Now after facing an underdog role vs the Jets, basically a pick-em spot (-1 at some spots) vs the Giants, they are now laying nearly a full TD vs the Bengals?  That’s an overreaction.  On top of that, Buffalo hosts AFC East rival New England next so they could be peaking ahead here.  Bills QB Josh Allen is still very inexperienced and not overly consistent.  Tough to lay nearly a TD with a QB that has those traits.  While Bengal QB Dalton is no superstar, he is a veteran and seems to be adapting well to new head coach Zac Taylor’s offensive system very well with 729 yards and 4 TD’s in his 2 games.  Historically, Buffalo has been a down franchise for years.  They are simply not used to winning streaks.  In fact, the last 16 times the Bills have had a chance at a 3-game winning streak, they are just 3-13 SU in those games.  The look ahead line on this game before last weekend’s games was Buffalo -3.5 and a few -4.  We won’t overreact to what happened last week and we take the value with Cincinnati here.  The Bengals keep this close and have a shot to pull the upset.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399

Certainly San Diego State holds a large edge in this series as they have won 10 straight meetings. However, there have only been two recent meetings as Mountain West Conference foes and yet the Aztecs did dominate those as well as San Diego State won the two by an average margin of 27.5 points per victory! That said, it may have seemed surprising to see the Aggies open up as the favorite in this one, particularly since this game is at San Diego State. The fact is that this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds makers. The Aztecs offense is struggling badly this season as they are attempting to switch to a spread attack and it has not gone well. Typically a transition year can be painful and that is evident with what the San Diego State offense has displayed to this point. The Aztecs offense has averaged only 20 points per game this season. This may not sound so bad until you consider they have faced an FCS school (Weber State) as well as a New Mexico State team that has averaged 3 wins per season the past TEN years and a UCLA team that is off to a horrific start this season. That being said, San Diego State is going to find the going particularly tough against a Utah State team that averaged 47 points per game last season while allowing just 22 points a game! The Aggies came up just short at Wake Forest to open the season but the Demon Deacons look better this season than any of the 3 teams San Diego State has faced. Also, Utah State then got to enjoy a blowout win over an FCS school the next week and then a bye week last week. To say the least, the Aggies are VERY prepared as well as rested for their Mountain West opener against a team that has had their number. It is now payback time and the Aggies offense ranks in the Top 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency with 6.69 yards per play so far this season. This will be, by far, the toughest test that the Aztecs defense has faced this season and, per our computer math model, this one will turn into a road rout decided by a double digit margin. The Aztecs sputtering offense simply won't be able to keep up against a highly motivated and talented Aggies team that won 11 games last season and finally gets their first shot at San Diego States since the 2016 season. Lay the short number with Utah State in late night action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349

The Cougars are at home in this game and that is truly where their advantages begin and end. The Huskies are the better team all over the field and, from a situation standpoint, this is a fantastic spot for fading BYU. The Cougars have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation to open up this season. For Brigham Young, this will be their 4th straight game against a Power 5 Conference opponent. The Cougars suffered a home loss against Utah in BYU's home opener. Then they went on the road and won a dramatic multiple-OT game at Tennessee. The Cougars then came home and won another OT game against Southern Cal. To summarize, BYU has already played an SEC team and a pair of Pac-12 teams and now faces another Pac-12 team this week. Coming off back to back OT games (both wins) and truly getting dominated in their lone loss, we feel it all catches up with the Cougars here. BYU is facing a Washington team that blasted them 35 to 7 last season and the scoreboard was no fluke as the Huskies outgained the Cougars 474 to 194 in that game! While Brigham Young entered this season with a total of just 10 regular season wins the past two seasons combined, Washington entered this season having notched at least 10 regular season wins in each of the past three seasons! Last week the Huskies blasted Hawaii and were at home. In BYU's win last week they beat a USC team that started a back-up quarterback making his first ever road start because of the season-ending injury to JT Daniels. Certainly the Cougars face a much tougher test this week as they now face a Washington offense led by QB Jacob Eason (a transfer from SEC powerhouse Georgia). He is already averaging over 250 passing yards per game with 7 TDs against just 1 INT in the first 3 games. If you take away the OT scoring, BYU is averaging only 18.3 points per game in regulation this season. The Cougars won't be able to keep up with a Huskies team that already "learned their lesson" early this season with a 20-19 loss to Cal as a 2-TD favorite two weeks ago. Having already been tripped up once early this season (but scoring 49.5 points per game in their other two games) we look for a dominating effort from the road team in this one. Lay it with Washington in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

Even on the run line in this match-up the Yankees are still in the -160 price range but New York is well worth the investment here.  The biggest upset on the board yesterday was the Blue Jays knocking off the Yankees and it is now payback time today!  The Yankees are starting James Paxton and he is an incredible 9-0 his last 9 starts.  In these 9 outings he has compiled a 2.50 ERA and the Yankees have won 8 of the 9 games by a margin of 2 or more runs.  That is why we're very comfortable with the run line here because, in fact, the average margin of victory in these 9 consecutive wins is a very impressive SIX runs per game.  The Yankees aren't just winning with Paxton on the mound, they are annihilating the opposition.  That should continue here as the New York lineup gets another shot at Blue Jays rookie TJ Zeuch.  He has a 1.61 WHIP in his 3 appearances (1 start) and the Yankees will make him pay for his continued problem with issuing too many walks.  This will be the first time Zeuch is facing an MLB opponent for a 2nd time and this type of situation is generally very tough on a rookie hurler.  We look for that to be the case again here and, per our computer math model, the Yankees win this on in a home blowout!  Bet the Yankees -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Saturday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305

This one sets up nicely for the Utes who basically had a bye last week (beat Idaho State 31-0) while USC was in BYU losing 30-27 in overtime. Both of these teams played @ BYU and while USC lost in OT, Utah beat the Cougars 30-12. Utah has a balanced offense with a veteran QB, senior Tyler Huntley. He has been through the Pac 12 road wars and knows how to win. The Utes have won 13 of the last 16 games that Huntley has been the starting QB. He’s completing nearly 78% of his passes this year with no turnovers. USC will start true freshman Kedon Slovis again at QB. He takes over for JT Daniels who was injured in the season opener. He played very well in his first start vs Stanford which doesn’t look quite as good as it did at the time as the Cardinal have already turned into a trainwreck getting blow out in their last 2 games. Last week, Slovis came back down to earth throwing 3 interceptions in their loss @ BYU. Now he will face the best defense he’s played thus far and one of the top secondary in the nation. We expect him to turn the ball over again here which will give Utah a nice advantage. USC will struggle to run the ball vs a defense that is allowing just 65 YPG on the ground this year. The Utes finished 5th nationally in rush defense last year so their early season numbers are no fluke. The lack of a running game will put more pressure on the true freshman QB to win the game. We think that’s too much to ask. We also have a nice coaching advantage here with Kyle Whittingham easily over Clay Helton in our opinion. How does USC do vs teams when they are underdogs? Terrible. They are just 2-13 ATS and 1-14 SU their last 15 games as an underdog dating back to Helton’s early days here. That tells us the Helton & USC can beat the teams they are supposed to but when they are asked to step up and pull an upset, they can’t. Take Utah here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET

Great set up here as both teams were off yesterday and the Braves still have plenty to play for while the Phillies are down and out.  Philadelphia has seen their wild card playoff chances slip away due to a late season slump while the Braves are still looking to officially lock up the NL East.  Also, Atlanta still has home field motivation as well as they battle with the Dodgers for the #1 spot in the NL.  Of course the above, plus a big pitching edge, is why the Braves are priced as a big favorite here.  We'll avoid the big price on the money line by making use of the run line in this match-up.  Atlanta is available for a play here without juice if we lay the 1.5 runs and there is certainly likelihood of a home blowout here.  The Phillies are 6-15 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  The Braves are off a shutout loss on Sunday and Atlanta is 18-8 this season after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game.  Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 in the last 6 starts Vince Velasquez has made against the Braves.  Velasquez has gone 0-5 in those 6 games and has compiled an 8.46 ERA in those 6 outings!  This is not outdated history either.  All 6 of these starts have come since the start of last season.  Also, Velasquez enters this start struggling overall as he has a 5.48 ERA in the 14 starts he has made since rejoining the rotation.  Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Braves here and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 4 of the starts he has made against the Phillies in his career and that includes a pair of outings this season as well.  Additionally, Keuchel enters this start in top current form as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts overall.  21 of the Phillies 29 losses since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  29 of the Braves 39 wins since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Lay it as Atlanta bounces back from Sunday's shutout loss!  Bet the Braves -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category.  After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night.  After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important.  In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards.  However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well.  All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points.  Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game.  They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener.  The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s.  Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road.  These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia.  The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here.  Take the points with Atlanta.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener.  Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career.   We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday.  Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.  In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle.  The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards.  Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week.  We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense.  This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year.  They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance.  Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005.  On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010.  This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191

This is a BIG number posted on this game but UCLA is showing a BIG problem early this season. The Bruins came into this 2nd season under Chip Kelly knowing that their offense was going to have to lead the way. Of course that has long been the story with teams led by Chip Kelly and last season was no exception as the defense ranked 102nd in the nation as they allowed 445 yards per game. The big problem is that the offense was supposed to be much improved in the 2nd year in Chip Kelly's systems but they have looked absolutely awful. The Bruins are getting horrible QB play and their offensive efficiency (3.71 yards per play) ranks them 128th out of 130 teams! While UCLA has 479 yards of offense on the season, the Sooners have nearly a thousand more as they have piled up 1,417 yards of offense. Oklahoma's efficiency on offense is 10.92 yards per play which ranks them #1 in the nation. This is why, even though this is a big number of points to lay on the road, we have no hesitation in laying it with the Sooners here. Oklahoma is going to do what they always do which is score nearly every time their offense takes possession of the ball. The Bruins just don't have the ability to keep up here. The UCLA offense right now can't even get out of its own way, that is how bad it has been. Also, Oklahoma has a bye on deck and this is their first road game of the season. Look for a strong game from the defense as the Sooners D is viewing this as a very important game to come up with a big effort on the road. The reason is because this is their final non-conference game of the season as Big 12 play begins for the Sooners after their upcoming bye week. While the Sooners have a bye on deck, UCLA has their Pac-12 opener up next! Huge edges here for the Sooners! In terms of their production on offense, Oklahoma averaged 48 points per game last season and they put up 49 points in Week 1 this season (and then 70 last week but against South Dakota). UCLA has scored just 14 points in each of their games. Given those stats it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting a victory margin in the 5 TD range (35 points). Lay it with Oklahoma in evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (+) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET: Game #125

Air Force holds a huge situational edge in this match-up as the Falcons enter this game off a bye week while Colorado is off back to back big wins. The Buffaloes opened up the season with a rivalry win over Colorado State and then followed that up with a huge come from behind OT win (were down 17-0 in 3rd quarter) versus Nebraska last week. The Buffaloes used a lot of energy in storming back for the win over the Cornhuskers Saturday afternoon and, to top it off, Colorado also has their Pac-12 opener on deck at Arizona State. While Air Force entered this season returning 7 starters on both sides of the ball, the Buffaloes returned only 5 starters on defense. This increases the tough task of facing the Falcons option attack. While Air Force has had two weeks to prepare for this game, Colorado is having to try and quickly prepare for a much different offensive attack than what they saw last week with the Huskers. Also, while the Falcons return 4 starters from the offensive line plus their starting tight end from last seasons team, the Buffaloes return only 1 of their 4 starters on the defensive line. This is going to present a problem at the point of attack in this game and we look for a huge game from the Falcons option attack which is not the type of offense the Buffaloes see very often at all. Overall, the Falcons are the much more experienced team and also head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 13th year with Air Force. Conversely, Colorado lost a lot of experience from last season's team and their head coach Mel Tucker is in his first season as a head coach. The Buffaloes did their damage through the air in the comeback versus Nebraska last week but the Falcons do have an experienced secondary including one of the best safety duos in the Mountain West Conference with Garrett Kauppila and Jeremy Fejedelem. Colorado will certainly move the ball some through the air in this game but the Falcons ground-based attack on offense (ranked 3rd in the nation for rushing last season) will be the difference-maker and leads Air Force to the win in this one. We won't hesitate to grab the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the road team Falcons to win this one in an outright upset. Take the points with Air Force in early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

With their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound the Astros are a large money line favorite.  On the run line (-1.5 runs) however, the price is a manageable -140.  That makes Houston well worth an investment here in this strong bounce back spot.  When the Astros are playing with double revenge they are 14-6 this season.  Off back to back losses to Oakland, and having gone 12-1 this season when a money line favorite in a range of -250 to -330, the expectation is a home blowout here.  Houston has been fantastic at home this season as they have a 56-19 record at Minute Maid Park.  Also, 72 of the Astros 95 wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Each of the last 5 games between these teams have been decided by 2 or more runs and, in fact, the average margin in those games was 7.6 runs per game.  In other words, the spread should not matter here it is simply a matter of picking the winner and Verlander and the Astros hold a huge edge over Homer Bailey and the A's.  Verlander is 39-14 in an Astros uniform.  Bailey has a 6.38 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The A's are 2-9 as a road underdog of +150 or more this season and, per our computer math model, the home team responds in a huge way here after rare back to back losses as  host.  Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game.  We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game.  They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season.  The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years).  They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September.  Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  The Bucs won the game 48-40.  In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points.  Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD?  We’ll take that.   Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed.  It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s.  We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise.  Houston and the points here.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Marlins are the worst team in the National League and are 40 games below .500 on the season!  The Brewers are available in a very price range (-125) on the run line (-1.5 runs) and we won't hesitate in getting involved here!  Milwaukee still has post-season hopes and they also have a rejuvenated Jordan Lyles on the mound.  Oftentimes a change of scenery can work wonders for a pitcher and that has certainly been the case with Lyles.  After a disappointing first half of the season with the Pirates, Lyles has been a different pitcher since coming to Milwaukee.  The Brewers are 6-1 in his 7 starts as a Brewer and Lyles is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in those 7 outings.  He'll be opposed by rookie Robert Dugger of the Marlins.  The Miami right-hander went 2-4 with a 7.59 ERA and a .332 BAA in his ten starts at the AAA level this season.  Since coming to the big leagues he has made just 3 starts and 1 was surprisingly successful but the other two match his AAA lack of success and more of that is expected here.  In those two starts Dugger allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 11 innings and had more walks than strikeouts.  Milwaukee is 7-3 in its past 10 games and all but 1 of those wins was a victory by a margin of 2 or more runs.  24 of the Marlins last 31 defeats have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Per our computer math model, a road rout is expected in this mismatch tonight.  Bet the Brewers -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak.  Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective.  Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records.  A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season.  They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4.  Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year.  Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL.  They are also starting a guard who is a career back up.  Pats will be good but it may take some time this year.  We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many.  We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone.  We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year.  Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively.  We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed).  Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record.  Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog!  We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance.  Take Pitt + the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts.  This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7.  That’s move is too much in our opinion.  While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board.  They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush.  On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL.  He’s not great, but he’s not bad either.  He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL.  They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders.  All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again.  The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000.  In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans.  They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year.  Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett.  The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck.  Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game.  We disagree.  We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here.  We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice.  Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year.  They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only.  They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense.  The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record.  Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23.  In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets.  Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play.  Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday.   Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good.  They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year.  The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball.  While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge.  There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well.  First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT.  Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%.  We definitely have to take the points with the Bills.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tennessee Volunteers (-) over Brigham Young Cougars, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #358

Both the Cougars and the Volunteers had some turnover issues last week but BYU has some definite concerns with an offense whose only TD came in "garbage time" last week against the Utes. The Cougars had only 240 yards of offense last week and, again, some of that coming late when the game was already decided and Utah had "let up" in defensive intensity. Now certainly BYU faced a tougher defense than the Volunteers did last week but Tennessee did put up over 400 yards of offense and scored 30 points but they were done in by 3 turnovers in the game. The Vols were guilty of overlooking a Georgia State team that was 2-10 last season. This is a Volunteers team that returned 16 starters and now is out to make a statement this week to prove that last week's unacceptable loss was an aberration. The last 7 times Tennessee was off a non-conference SU loss they've gone undefeated (6-0-1) ATS. Look for the Vols to bounce back here. Certainly BYU is looking to bounce back as well but Brigham Young is 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when they are off a big loss (margin of defeat of 17 points or more). Additionally, the Cougars history against SEC teams (0-8 ATS the last 8) certainly doesn't bode well either! The Volunteers are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they have been off an upset loss as a double digit favorite. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Volunteers to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331

The Huskers received more off-season hype than any other Big Ten team and we felt they were overvalued entering the season. They showed that last weekend when they struggled at home in a 35-21 win over South Alabama falling well short of their 35 point spread. While that number was much too high, we feel their poor showing last week, along with a deceiving Colorado performance has resulted in a number that is too low here. We have this game power rated to Nebraska -7 so the value, and a full FG, is on the Huskers. They are facing a Colorado team that looks like they destroyed their in-state rival last week. The Buffs beat Colorado State 52-31 however the game was much closer than that. CSU actually outgained Colorado but lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game. The Colorado defense gave up over 500 yards and we expect the Husker offense to have a field day on Saturday. The Nebraska offense was expected to be one of the best in the Big Ten this year. If you throw out their late season game last year vs MSU which was played in snow and very strong winds, this Husker offense averaged 41 PPG over their last 7 games. They topped 400 yards of offense in 8 of their final 9 games with their MSU game being the only outlier. They bring back all-conference caliber QB Martinez and most of his weapons. Last Saturday was a dud offensively. Head coach Scott Frost mentioned after the game it was one of the most anemic offensive efforts he’s ever been a part of. You can bet they’ll play very well on that side of the ball this week coming off that performance and facing a restructured CU defense under new head coach Melvin Tucker. The Nebraska defense had us questioning this team coming into the season however they won the game for the Huskers last week. If they play solid again this Saturday we feel this team will roll as we expect the offense to click. These two met last year and Nebraska had their way with Colorado’s defense rolling up 565 yards. They outgained the Buffs by 170 yards but lost 33-28 when Colorado scored on a 40-yard TD pass with just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Nebraska was the better team last year and they are better this year. We look for Colorado to take a step back this year as they adapt to their new schemes on both sides of the ball. The game is in Boulder we’re hearing that the Nebraska fans will be traveling in droves and it could be close to a 50/50 in the stadium when all is said and done. It all adds up to a convincing Nebraska win on Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #314

This is a huge home game for the Boilers who were upset last Saturday @ Nevada. Purdue simply blew that game. They were up 31-14 late in the 3rd quarter and decided to put it on cruise control. They allowed the Wolfpack to score the final 20 points of the game to pull the unlikely win. Purdue had over 500 yards of offense but over the last quarter and half, after taking the 17 point lead, they tallied just 55 yards. PU head coach Jeff Brohm admitted after the game they should have stayed more aggressive on offense. They will not make that mistake on Saturday. If they get ahead, which we anticipate, they won’t take their foot off the gas as they did last week. Even with the terrible last quarter and a half of play, Purdue dominated Nevada. They outgained the Pack by 115 yards and QB Sindelar had 343 yards passing. The problem was they lost the turnover battle 5-0. Normally if the turnover margin in a game is minus 5 it’s a blowout. However, it took a 56 yard FG as time expired for Nevada to win. That tells us how much Purdue dominated the game, sans the turnovers. They come home to face a Vandy team that is off a big home conference opener vs Georgia and they have LSU as their next opponent. The Commodores were toasted 30-6 in a game that could have been much worse as UGA ran for 323 yards on 8.1 YPC. The offense struggled behind a banged up offensive line (2 starters out) as they learn a new system (new offensive coordinator). Grad transfer QB Neal from Ball State threw for just 85 yards and was under constant pressure. It will be very tough for Vandy to rebound on the road as they were beat up physically last Saturday. Purdue played Friday giving them another edge and an extra day off. Vanderbilt has been a poor road team winning just 6 of their last 27 games away from home. This is a really tough spot for them versus a team that really needs this win at home. Lay it with Purdue.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Boise State Broncos, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #303

Bryan Harsin is in his 6th season as the head coach at Boise State.. In his first season at the helm in 2014, the Broncos had a solid ATS record at home (similar to some of those dominating campaigns under former head coach Chris Petersen).. However, the past 4 seasons Harsin's teams are 6-17-1 ATS as a home favorite and this particular spot is a very tough one for the Broncos.  Boise State is off a huge upset win on the road way down in Florida where they rallied to upset the Seminoles.  Not only did that comeback win take a lot out of the Broncos, it also involved a lot of travel (over 4,000 miles round-trip).  Look for the Thundering Herd to come in and take advantage as Marshall is excited about this opportunity to take on a ranked team in a weeknight game where they know they certainly have a chance to get noticed if they can pull off the upset with the ESPN cameras rolling.  The Herd enter this game off a confidence-building win as they were able to roll up a big margin of victory against VMI in what was the home opener for Marshall.  Now the Thundering Herd take to the road where they are 8-2 ATS as a road dog the past 3 seasons.  The last 14 times that the Broncos have been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, they have gone 4-10 ATS.  Situational value and historical trends and our computer math model all offer strong support for this play.  Grab the big points here as we fully expect this one to go down to the wire on Friday.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Seattle Mariners, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

The Astros are a huge favorite on the money line in this one but we can get them in the -135 price range by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line.  The fact is that Houston is catching Seattle at the perfect time for a blowout win.  The Mariners have lost 7 of their past 9 games.  Seattle's last 6 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 4 runs per loss.  Only 1 of those 6 losses was a 1-run loss.  The Mariners start Marco Gonzales in this one.  The Seattle lefty saw opponents hit .285 against him in the month of August.  He has only had 1 strong month (July - only 4 starts) out of his last 4 months.  In May, June, and August Gonzales is a combined 6-10 with a 5.21 ERA.  Wade Miley gets the start for the Astros and holds the huge edge here.  In his last dozen starts, Miley is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.44 ERA.  The Houston lefty is 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA on the season in his dozen starts at home.  Given the above numbers, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a blowout home win here.  27 of the Astros last 32 wins have come by a multiple run margin.  Houston is 51-17 at home this season which is the top mark in the majors.  We'll lay the very fair price here with Houston on the run line in this one.  Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Houston Cougars, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #216

There is no questioning the Sooners offensive firepower. Although they have a new QB this season it is the Oklahoma system that is a catalyst for fantastic production on that side of the ball. Additionally, they are loaded (as usual) with talent and firepower at the skill positions and ready to dominate opposing defenses. The Cougars are very poor on the defensive side of the ball plus lost most of their starters from last season's team. Houston truly has little chance of getting stops in this match-up. The key to laying the big number here is that the Sooners, unlike the Cougars, should get quite a few stops. Look for some improvement from the OU defense this season after the addition of Alex Grinch at defensive coordinator. He was previously at Ohio State and though improvement will take time this season, there already is a new attitude and confidence level within the Sooner defense. The Cougars are 3-7 the last 10 times as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points. In the past two seasons Houston was an underdog 4 times and they went 1-3 ATS. The Sooners are 13-5 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 points and this total is set very high for a reason. Oklahoma is known for imposing their will and not taking their foot off of the gas on offense no matter the score. When facing an over-matched foe, the Sooners go for the jugular. This game will be no different and, per our computer math model, this one is decided by at least 4 TDs as that record improves to 14-5 ATS! Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Sooners in this evening match-up Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203

We think Virginia is a team that will surprise this year. They come into the season a bit underrated in our opinion. The Cavs were 8-5 a year ago including a 28-0 win over South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. Offensively they return one of the top QB’s in the country in Bryce Perkins who threw for 2,700 yards and rushed for almost 1,000 more last season. The only other QB in college football to pass for more than 2,600 and rush for more than 900 last year was Heisman Winner and #1 pick Kyler Murray of Oklahoma. UVA will have a big advantage at QB in this game as Pitt’s Kenny Pickett is inconsistent (58% completion rate) and not nearly the offensive threat that Perkins is. Defensively the Cavs should be one of the best units in the ACC. They return 8 of their top 10 tacklers and they are very good up front on the all-important defensive line where they are very deep. They bring back 6 starters in the front 7 so we expect them to control the trenches vs a very raw Pittsburgh offensive line who has only 37 combined starts (117th nationally). On the other side of the ball the Panthers lost 5 of their 7 players up front including their top returning DE Rashad Weaver who injured his knee in camp a few weeks ago and is out for the season. We think Virginia has a solid edge on both lines of scrimmage which is vitally important. Situationally this is a very solid spot for Virginia. It’s a revenge spot and a fairly significant one. Last season UVA won 6 of their first 8 games and pushed their way into the top 25 for the first time since 2011 heading into week 9 checking in at #23. That week 9 opponent just happened to be the Pitt Panthers. While the Cavs were celebrating their top 25 ranking, Pitt came into Charlottesville as a 7-point dog and walked away with a 23-13 win making the Cavaliers long awaited move into the rankings a one week affair as they dropped out for good. Virginia has had this game in their sights since that embarrassing effort. Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach and he had the Cavs getting better each year. They went from 2-10 to 6-7 to 8-5 in their 3 years under Mendenhall. He now has his best team yet and they’ll take advantage of a rebuilding Pitt squad. We think UVA is better on both sides of the ball here. Virginia is the play. Lay the small points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the road team Cavaliers in this early evening match-up Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #192

Florida State returns 16 starters from last year's team and that includes 8 on each side of the ball. Also, at QB they have plenty of experience on hand with James Blackman as the starter and Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook (a starter with the Badgers) serving as the back-up. The Broncos situation on offense is certainly unsettled early on as they lost their QB, RB and a pair of top receivers. All those skill position guys for Boise State were top performers and now the Broncos begin the season far away from home and facing a talented Noles defense. FSU returned their entire secondary among the 8 returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. Of course this game being played at TIAA Bank Field, the home of the NFL's Jaguars, in Jacksonville, FL is a big edge for Florida State. This is a tough spot for a team's first game with a new QB but that is the task at hand for the Broncos. Boise State is starting true freshman Hank Bachmeier in this one. The Seminoles rate an edge in terms of experience and have the location edge in this game. FSU is projected to be much improved in their 2nd year under Willie Taggart after last season was deemed a "transition year" for the program. In terms of ATS support here, the Seminoles are perfect 8-0 ATS when they are facing a non-conference foe and are favored by less than a 4 TD margin. Taking a look at Boise State, the last 3 times the Broncos opened the season in a match-up in which they were the underdog they lost all 3 games SU. The 2 most recent occurrences were both ATS losses and saw Boise State get blown out by an average of 27 points per game despite the fact that their average line in those two games was only +7. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Seminoles to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Washington Nationals (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

The Nationals are a huge favorite on the money line in this one but we can get them in the -135 price range by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line. The fact is that Washington is catching Miami at the perfect time for a blowout win. While the Nationals were off last night, the Marlins were doing battle with the Reds in south Florida and ended up with a rare win in a game that went 12 innings. Not only did Miami play late into the night yesterday, they then had to travel to DC for this game. While the Nationals are well-rested the travel-weary Marlins are going to try and do something they haven't done all month - win back to back games. The fact is that Miami is just 7-20 in the month of August and they are 0-6 after each of their first 6 wins this month. 5 of those 6 defeats came by 2 or more runs and that is not a big surprise considering 17 of the Marlins last 21 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Miami starts Elieser Hernandez in this one. He has been solid at home this season but has gone 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his 7 road games (5 starts) this season. The Nationals start former Marlin Anibal Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is coming off a superb outing versus the Cubs. Also, Sanchez has a 3.09 ERA in his 6 career starts against his former team and he absolutely dominated them in the most recent outing on July 4th. This season began with a tough April for Sanchez but he never looked back after getting hot in May and has a 3.12 ERA since May 1st. The better pitcher, the much better team, and very fair line value here all add up for what should be a dominating home win at a good price. The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games and 14 of those 16 victories came by a margin of 2 or more runs. We'll lay the very fair price here with Washington on the run line in this one. Bet the Nationals -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Rice Owls, Friday at 6 PM ET: Game #146

Army is 21-5 SU the past two seasons. Rice is 3-22 SU the past two seasons. In fact the Owls have only won 6 games the past 3 seasons combined and the Black Knights had nearly twice as many victories as that just in the last season alone. The point is that there is a huge difference in the current status of each of these two football programs and that was on full display in the most recent meeting between these squads. In that game in 2017, Army rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead and then coasted to the 49-12 victory. That game was at Rice too! Now the Owls are facing the Black Knights at West Point and we expect nothing less than a result very similar to that 2017 meeting. Army has won 5 of its last 6 home openers. The Black Knights last 3 home openers have all been wins and the average victory margin has been 33 points per game. The Owls averaged only 18.9 points per game last season and remain unsettled in terms of their QB situation. Conversely, the Black Knights are very much settled in with their QB situation as senior Kelvin Hopkins returns. Last season he became the first Army QB to both throw and run for over 1,000 yards in the same season. He is a dual threat and the Black Knights ground game is one of the best in the nation as they ranked 2nd last year! Defensively, the Black Knights were in the top ten in the nation for rush defense, yardage allowed, and points allowed last season. Rice has been known for slow starts to the season as they've gone 3-10 ATS in the first half of the season the past two years. Though Army lost a number of starters from their defensive unit of a year ago, they do return plenty of experience as they have many upperclassmen to turn to. In fact, their 2-deep on defense shows a dozen seniors. Once again, the Black Knights system under Jeff Monken appears poised for another double digit win total this season and, in this spot, the downtrodden Owls appear very likely to suffer yet another early season blowout loss. Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Black Knights in this early evening match-up Friday.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Reds are off a tight one run loss yesterday while the Marlins are off a tight one run win yesterday. After Miami's big upset of the Phillies and ace Aaron Nola, don't be surprised if they fall flat here in the opening game of this series with the Reds. As for Cincinnati, they hold a big edge on the mound with surging Sonny Gray over the Marlins Pablo Lopez as the latter is just returning from a long stint on the injured list. Also, the Reds bullpen rates a significant edge over the Miami bullpen. Cincinnati's Gray is 4-1 with a 1.68 ERA in his 8 starts since the all-star break. Gray has held opponents to a .170 batting average during this stretch and he had a streak of 23 consecutive scoreless innings snapped in his most recent outing. The Marlins Lopez is 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA in his 5 minor league starts this season. Now returning from the injured list we don't expect Lopez to step right in and be at his top level. Lopez has a 5.13 ERA in his 9 night game starts this season. 10 of the Reds last dozen victories have come by 2 or more runs. 14 of the Marlins last 18 losses have come by 2 or more runs. We'll grab the plus money here with Cincinnati on the run line in this one. Bet the Reds -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees Domingo German has struggled in the 2nd half of this season. Since the all-star break the right-hander has a 4.96 ERA. On the full season, German has been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. He has a 5.82 ERA in away games this season! The above correlates with a big edge for the home team in this match-up considering Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for Los Angeles. The Dodgers southpaw is a dominating 19-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 37 inter-league appearances in his career. Kershaw is also 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his 13 starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Of course the above factors point to why the Dodgers opened up as a big money line favorite in this game. Where we see the value in this match-up is with utilizing the run as LA is available in the +115 range by laying 1.5 runs with the run line. The Dodgers 86 wins this season have featured 62 victories by a multiple-run margin. 33 of the Yankees 47 losses this season have come by a multiple-run margin. Prior to yesterday's 1-run loss, 12 of New York's last 13 defeats came by 2+ runs. The Dodgers last 3 wins have all come by a single run but one can consider that an aberration. Prior to this stretch, 20 of the last 23 Dodger victories came by 2 or more or runs. Look for a dominating home win with Kershaw over German in this one. Bet the Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Warriors (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #294

Three years ago these teams met in Arizona and the Wildcats got the win but the Warriors got the cover. This time around, with Hawaii as the host in an early season match-up, the likelihood of another underdog cover is even greater! The Warriors have excelled as a home dog against PAC-12 foes as they have covered five in a row! Overall, in their lined home openers, it has been a run of 7 straight covers for Hawaii. The Warriors are strong this season in terms of returning talent as they return 18 starters from last season's team. Offensively, they are strong at QB with McDonald and he pairs with wide receivers Ward and Byrd for a dangerous aerial attack. The Wildcats were weak in terms of pass defense last season and Hawaii will take advantage here. Though the Warriors are not known for their defense they should see improvement on that side of the ball this season as they do return 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last season's squad. Arizona has not fared well in the role of an away favorite. Facing Hawaii - so strong in home openers and known for "stepping up their game" when getting an opportunity against the PAC-12 - this is simply not a good spot for the Wildcats from a situational standpoint. A lot of points expected here as this total is in the mid-seventies as of Friday afternoon and in a game projected to be a shootout, that is likely to spell trouble for Arizona at the betting window. The Wildcats are 5-14 ATS when the total on their game is set at greater than or equal to 70. The Cats are also a poor 5-12 ATS when they are favored on the road by 7 or more points. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games played in the month of August. Look for a strong fight (and cover) from the home dog Warriors in this Saturday night non-conference match-up.

ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The level of dominance that should be on display in this match-up is why we're comfortable laying a -155 range price to play the Indians on the run line at -1.5 runs as they host a slumping Royals team. With Mike Clevinger going against Glenn Sparkman in this match-up, the Indians have a huge advantage. Sparkman is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his 11 appearances (8 starts) on the road this season. Clevinger had some struggles when he first came back into the rotation (in June) but he has been very strong ever since. In July and August, Clevinger is 7-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his 9 starts. The Indians also rate a huge bullpen edge in this match-up too as they have one of the best pens in the majors while the Royals have one of the worst pens in the majors. Kansas City is 14-43 as a money line dog of +200 or more the past 2 and 1 / 2 seasons. The Indians are 18-4 this season as a money line favorite of -200 or more. 65 of the Royals 84 losses have been defeats by a margin of 2 or more runs this year! 62 of Cleveland's 75 wins this season have been victories by a margins of 2 or more runs this season! Given all of the above, it comes as little surprise that our computer math model is forecasting the Indians to roll to a home blowout victory in this one. Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday

#271 ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston Texans (pick-em) over Dallas Cowboys, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

We have been thoroughly unimpressed with Dallas this pre-season.  They are without 2 of their top offensive weapons (RB Elliot and WR Cooper) and they have scored just 23 total points in 2 games this preseason.  The Boys were beaten by San Francisco in their opener and then struggled to top the LA Rams last week, a team that is playing NONE of their key players this preseason.  Dallas was outgained in both of those games.  While the 3rd preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal so to speak for the regular season, the Cowboys will be without 5 players who were All Pros last season.  Head coach Jason Garrett also showed last year that he doesn’t necessarily view this game as one to get his starters ready for the regular season as he sat many of his key players in their 27-3 loss to Arizona in week 3 of the preseason.  Garrett has also proven he has very little interest in the preseason with a 13-22 lifetime record including just 6-16 since 2014.  Unlike Dallas, we have been impressed with Houston.  Their offense is clicking scoring 56 points in their 2 games topping 400 yards in both.  Dallas has yet to get to 300 yards in either of their 2 games.  It looks like Houston will take this game much more seriously and we expect their regulars to get solid time in this game.  That includes QB Deshaun Watson who has only thrown 7 passes this preseason.  Head coach Bill O’Brien wants to get him ready for the opener in a few weeks.  The Texans also have a strong rotation behind Watson as Joe Webb has already thrown for almost 500 yards in the first 2 preseason games.  Unlike Garrett, Houston head man O’Brien seems to put more emphasis on the preseason as he has a 13-8 record.  The Texans are viewed as the little guy in this state behind the Cowboys giving their players and coaches a little extra motivation even if it is just the preseason.  The Texans will want to win this game.  We’ll side with Houston on Saturday night. 

ASA 10* NFLX PLAY ON Detroit +1.5 over Buffalo, Friday at 8 PM ET

Lots of people jumping on 2-0 Buffalo over 0-2 Detroit here.  In fact, as of this writing well over 70% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo.  We’ll go contrarian here and take Detroit to win their first pre-season game.  The Lions are 0-2 but faced 2 of the better teams in the NFL in New England and Houston.  Their defense has allowed 61 points in those 2 games, however both of their opponents were top 12 in scoring offense last year.  Now they face a Buffalo offense that averaged only 16.8 PPG last year ranking them 30th in the NFL.  After struggling the first 2 games we look for Detroit’s defense to play much better at home on Friday.  Offensively the Lions looked MUCH better last week.  They threw up a stinker in week 1 scoring only 3 points vs the Patriots.  Last week @ Houston, the Lions put up 23 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play which was better than the 5.7 YPP put up by the Texans.  Back up QB David Fales played very well going 12 of 19 for 226 yards and 2 TD’s.  This week we expect starting QB Matthew Stafford to get his first action of the pre-season.  While head coach Matt Patricia has not stated that Stafford will play, we can take a look at last year when Patricia had him playing into the 3rd quarter in Detroit’s pre-season week 3 win over Tampa Bay.  While most NFL head coaches treat this as a trial run for the regular season, Patricia goes even further as the week leading up to this game is laid out exactly as it would be for a regular season games.  That includes film study of upcoming opponent.  Buffalo is 2-0 but they have yet to face a starting QB as Indy was without Luck and last week Carolina was without Cam Newton.  The Bills are on the road for the 2nd straight week and we have a feeling this has now become a very big game for Patricia and the Lions after starting 0-2.  This line opened with Detroit -2.5 which is where our projected line was as well but it now has moved to +1 because most are on Buffalo as we stated above.  We like the value and the situation here.  Take Detroit.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Phillies Drew Smyly has excellent history against the Red Sox and this includes his outings at Fenway Park. This will be the first time he has faced them this season (generally an edge for the pitcher) and from 2013 to 2018 Smyly compiled a 1.70 ERA in nearly 50 innings of work against Boston. Yesterday's 3-2 loss was the 6th time in 9 games that the Red Sox have been held to 4 runs or less. The Phillies have won 5 of their past 7 games and the two losses came by a combined margin of only 3 runs. That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a play on the run line here. For a very small price (-120 range), Philadelphia can be bet at +1.5 runs here and of course that provides some extra insurance should the Phillies fall short of the outright upset. Philly should enjoy plenty of success against Rick Porcello. The Boston right-hander had a 6.46 ERA in June and a 7.94 ERA in July. He has been better in August but that has had to do with facing two of the worst teams in the majors (Royals and Orioles). In his other start this month, Porcello gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and that is the type of start expected here. Philadelphia is 4-1 in Smyly's starts since his acquisition. The Red Sox are 2-4 in the last 6 home starts Porcello has made as a favorite of -200 or less. Bet the Phillies +1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Reds Trevor Bauer is off a tough start but he now makes his 3rd start at Great American Ball Park this season and he has thrived here. One start at this park was as a member of the Indians and the other was his home debut as a member of the Reds. He was phenomenal in both outings as his combined stats show. Bauer allowed 2 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings of work. Now Bauer takes on a Padres team struggling at the plate. While San Diego did manage to win the final two games of their series at Philadelphia they also scored just 3 runs yesterday. The Padres had a .383 slugging percentage last week and that ranks them 13th out of the 15 National League teams. For the sake of comparison, the Reds have a .480 slugging percentage in the month of August. Bauer has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 straight home starts (1 with Reds and 3 with Indians). Pitching as the host has suited him well and he also should get plenty of run support. The Cincinnati lineup gets to take shots at a struggling Eric Lauer in this one. The Padres left-hander is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA in road starts this season! In 6 games (5 starts) since the all star break, Lauer has a 6.56 ERA. Of course the above factors are why the Reds are a sizable money line favorite. That being said, we like the value of the run line here as the Reds are available in the +125 price range when laying 1.5 runs. 49 of the Padres 64 losses (more than 75%) have been by two or more runs. 9 of the Reds last 10 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact those 9 victories came by an average victory margin of 4 runs. Coincidentally, our computer math model is forecasting a win by a 4-run margin for the home team in this one. Lay it! Bet the Reds -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Astros are positioned well to avoid a sweep at the hands of a divisional foe that is quickly closing the gap at the top of the AL West. The A's are starting lefty Brian Anderson. That certainly holds some significance here as Houston is 25-8 this season against left-handed starters. The Astros are starting the recently acquired Zack Greinke and he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA this season. Greinke has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his first two starts with Houston. That extends his streak to 5 straight starts with 2 or less earned runs given up. Greinke should enjoy the benefit of plenty of run support in this one as the Astros have a slugging percentage of .517 against southpaws this season. This ranks Houston #2 out of the 30 MLB clubs in that category for this season. The A's Anderson has been better on the road and better in night games this season. That being said, an afternoon home game is not likely to lead to success for the lefty. He has a 4.65 ERA and a .286 BAA in home games this season and a 5.53 ERA and .319 BAA in day games this year. The Astros are in the -175 range on the money line here but a pick range (-110) on the run line. This is where the value is given the above stats as you can see why our computer math model is calling for a road rout here. Greinke and the Astros rate a big edge over Anderson and the A's given all the above factors. Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA 8* NFLX PLAY ON Baltimore -4 over Green Bay, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

These two are both 1-0 in the pre-season but they reached that result in drastically different ways.  Baltimore absolutely dominated Jacksonville shutting out the Jags 29-0.  The Raven defense, who led the league in total defense last year, held the Jags offense to just 112 total yards on 2.1 yards per play.  Baltimore’s defense is deep and played well throughout as Jacksonville crossed midfield just ONCE the entire game and that was just barely making it to the Raven’s 49-yard line.  Offensive QB Lamar Jackson looked very comfortable leading the Ravens to 10 points in 3 possessions.  Look for Jackson and the starters to play into the 2nd quarter this week.  Green Bay also picked up a win last week vs Houston.  However, it was far from dominating as the Packers won 28-26 but were outgained by the Texans 412 to 237.  Green Bay benefitted from 4 Houston turnovers including a muffed punt for a TD.  The Pack scored 4 TD’s however 2 of those came on a fumble recovery as noted above and another came on a 3-yard drive after a turnover.  Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here but only expect a few series.  He’s also running a brand new offense under head coach Matt LaFleur so don’t expect everything to go smoothly as he learns the system.  Baltimore is the deeper team, especially on defense, and we know they want to win this game.  Head coach John Harbaugh has proven the preseason is important to him as the Ravens have won 14 straight preseason games under Harbaugh!  8 of those 14 wins have come by at least 9 points.  They get another here.  Lay the points with the host in this one.

ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Texas Rangers (-1.5 runs) over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Detroit and Texas each were off yesterday. The Tigers are an incredibly bad 22-64 (including 3-16 this season) against AL West opponents. Detroit also is a horrible 13-43 in night games this season. Of course this is a big part of the reason that the Rangers are such a huge favorite on the money line in this game. While we would never lay those types of prices (-250) on a game, we're happy to grab the run line here as the Rangers are available in the -140 range at -1.5 runs. Will the Tigers lose by 2 or more runs? Note that 59 of Detroit's 72 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Texas has Lance Lynn on the mound for this one and he is 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 17 starts. He completed at least 6 innings in all 17 of those outings! The Tigers start rookie southpaw Tyler Alexander here. His first two starts went well but then he faced a tough lineup in his 3rd MLB start and got crushed by the Mariners. Alexander faces another tough match-up here as the Rangers are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. As for the Tigers, they are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors this season. 39 of the Rangers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs and we like the odds here as they are favoring a huge home win. 17 of the Rangers last 21 wins have come by 2+ runs. Texas is also 4-0 in their last 4 games against Detroit (those were on the road) and also 5-1 the last 6 times they have hosted the Tigers. Bet the Rangers -1.5 runs in evening action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

After getting blasted 10-4 in yesterday's game the Astros are in full-on bounce back mode on Thursday. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and opposed by a pitcher on a strict pitch count and making his first MLB start since 2017, this one is likely to turn into a road rout. Of course the likelihood of a Houston win here is why they are a big favorite on the money line. With that being said, where we get the value here is on the run line as the Astros are available in the -120 price range by laying the 1.5 runs. Cole is in phenomenal current form and also has revenge here against the Indians after a tough hard-luck loss suffered at the hands of Cleveland earlier this season. Cole enters this outing having allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. Also, he has gone at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Cleveland's Danny Salazar is returning from major injury issues. He will be limited to, very likely, 70 pitches at most in this one. Though he has pitched well in the minors during his rehab and also piled up the strikeouts there, Salazar is facing a tough lineup in this match-up. Of course major league hitters are much better at making contact with the "swing and miss" stuff that Salazar displayed at the minor league level. The Astros slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 3rd in the majors! The Indians batting average at home ranks them a poor 13th out the 15 American League teams. Both teams have strong bullpens but the Cleveland pen will be asked to do too much here with Salazar's early exit expected. Cole dominates again and Houston rolls to a win by a multiple-run margin. The Astros, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are a long-term 37-14. That is worthy of note here because 35 of the Indians 44 losses this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs. Also, 51 of Houston's 69 wins this season have been by a margin of at least two runs! Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees have gotten crushed so far in this series so everyone is pounding the Red Sox in this Sunday night match-up because of that factor as well as the fact that Chris Sale is on the mound. This has led to exceptional line value with the Yankees on the run line at +1.5 runs. There are very few times you will ever see a strong team with a strong pitcher on the mound getting +1.5 runs at a pick price (-110) but that is the case here. The fact that the Yankees Domingo German is off a season-worst start actually makes this play on the road dog even stronger. Prior to that rough outing German had gone 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA since coming off the injured list early in July. The fact is German is 12-2 this season and opponents are hitting just .227 against him. As for Boston's Chris Sale, many felt he should have come out of his last start prior to the 6th inning but manager Alex Cora sent him back out there and he threw 116 pitches in that game. Granted it was a strong start for the Red Sox southpaw but that was a season high for him in pitches thrown. Now Sale faces a Yankees team that hasn't been kind to him this season. Sale is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers this year. Sale's most recent road start and most recent home start were each successful. However, prior to that Sale allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings! Plain and simple, Sale and the Red Sox are overpriced here and our computer math model has the majority of simulations on the outcome of this game reflecting either an outright upset or a one-run loss for New York. That means strong odds with grabbing the 1.5 runs on the road dog here! Bet the Yankees +1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET

The Indians Mike Clevinger has been dominating while the Royals Glenn Sparkman continues to struggle! With yesterday's dominating win Cleveland is 19 games over .500 this season while Kansas City is 27 games under .500 on the season. In terms of bullpens, the Indians 3.27 ERA ranks #1 in the majors while the Royals bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the majors for ERA and very near rock bottom for batting average allowed. As for the starting pitchers here, Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his 4 July starts. Also, Clevinger has allowed a TOTAL of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts against the Royals and he did go at least 6 innings in all 7 of those outings. He has dominated KC to say the least! As for Royals starter Sparkman, he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last two starts against the Indians and did not finish the 6th inning in either outing. Overall, Sparkman has had but one good start in his last 5 outings! In the other 4 starts the Royals right-hander has allowed 21 earned runs in 20 and 1 / 3 innings. Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that the forecast here, per our computer math model, is an absolute road rout! Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers here. Los Angeles is off back to back losses which is rare. Look for this road trip to get the Dodgers re-focused and rolling again. LA is a fantastic 18-4 this season when they enter a match-up after 5 or more consecutive home games. Not only that, their record when Ryu is pitching is phenomenal! The Dodgers are 11-2 in the last 13 starts he has made. On the season Ryu is 11-2 and he has been amazingly consistent. Ryu has allowed just ONE earned run or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The Los Angeles left-hander has been superb in his 4 career starts against Washington as he has a 1.35 ERA over 26 and 2 / 3 innings! Ryu will be opposed by the Nationals Anibal Sanchez. The Washington right-hander has pitched a little better of late but he has still been far from overpowering! In July his strikeouts are down and he has a 4.91 ERA in his two starts since the all star break. Also, Sanchez is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers and that includes getting rocked by the Dodgers. That is the expectation here and that is why this play is on the run line. We avoid laying the big money line price and instead get nearly an even money price on LA by making use of the run line (-1.5 runs) in this one. Bet LA Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET

The Braves are off a tight 1-run home loss to the Royals yesterday. That sets this one up well for a bounce back spot as Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they were off a home loss. Also, the Braves have a huge pitching edge here. Kansas City's Brad Keller has a low ERA in his July starts but he has been hit hard in both road outings. The point is that Keller has been playing with fire and he has been lucky that he has escaped jams and hasn't been burned. In road outings, Keller has been in consistent trouble in 6 of the last 7. Taking away the lone good outing, the other 6 away from home for Keller have seen him allow 45 hits in 30 and 2 / 3 innings. Keller's most recent start was at home and he allowed only 2 earned runs but he gave up 9 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. In his most recent road start Keller walked 5 in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Again, the theme with Keller is constantly pitching himself into jams and the Braves have the potent lineup to make him pay. In fact, Atlanta has scored more runs at home than any other team in the National League. As for Kansas City, their road offense has them mired at the bottom of the AL rankings with other bad teams like the White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles. The Braves also have a big bullpen edge as they rank in the top 8 teams in the majors for bullpen ERA while the Royals relief pitching has been hit at a .273 clip this season which ranks them dead last (#30) out of all teams in the majors. KC was outhit 11-5 yesterday and yet still won the game 5-4. We don't see them being so lucky today. The Braves Julio Teheran is back in top form as he has a 1.53 ERA in the month of July and opponents are hitting only .190 against him this month. The Royals were 15-35 this season on the road before eking out yesterday's win. Lightning won't strike twice! Kansas City's losing ways resume tonight and note that 47 of KC's 64 losses this season have been defeats by a multiple run margin. Per our computer math model, the Braves roll at home in this one! Bet Atlanta -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET

With another win yesterday Cleveland has now won 13 of 16 games. Of course that is a big part of the reason they are sizable money line favorites on the road at Toronto in this series opener Monday. . Where the value lies with this one is the run line as we can reduce the lay amount to right around a "pick" price by laying the 1.5 runs with Cleveland. The Indians hold big edges here as, even though this game is at Toronto, the Blue Jays are 18-30 at home this season. Out of all 30 MLB teams there are only 2 (Detroit and Baltimore) that have fewer home wins than Toronto. The Indians enter this series having won 11 of their last 15 road games. The Jays are starting Ryan Borucki. The lefty is making his first start of the season after being sidelined with an injury during spring training. In his most recent rehab starts in the minors (at the AAA level) he was hit quite hard (including the long ball 3 times in 2 starts) and now Borucki faces an Indians lineup that has been surging (6 runs scored per game) during their 13-3 run. Unlike the red hot Indians, the Blue Jays have lost 9 of their last 14 games. Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he should keep Toronto cold as he has dominated of late. Clevinger has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in 17 innings in his last 3 starts. The Indians also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as their 3.26 ERA ranks #1 out of all 30 teams. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Boston Red Sox (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET

The Red Sox are priced in the -165 range on the money line which is a little pricey but we can put the odds in our favor by laying the -1.5 runs here for the plus money (+115 range) return. Boston is expected to roll here per a significant pitching edge in this match-up. The Dodgers are starting Ross Stripling. He has an 8.00 ERA in his 2 starts in the month of July. Overall, the LA right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts (17 hits allowed in 12 innings) since taking the spot of Rich Hill in the rotation. Stripling will be opposed by Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw is anxious to get back on the hill after a tough start closed out his first half of the season. Though he has given up more runs than usual in his last few starts, Sale has continued to pile up strikeouts and, in many respects, deserved better than what the line score ended up showing. The Dodgers are not very familiar with him (other than Sale mowing them down to close out last year's World Series) and that gives the lefty (with deceptive stuff) a big edge in this match-up. Sale has struck out 153 in his 107 innings on the mound this season. Opponents are hitting just .196 against Sale in night starts this season. 22 of the Dodgers 32 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 36 of Boston's 49 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. The bullpens are nearly equal. The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in the majors when at home while the Dodgers are not as strong at the plate when away from home. Combining that with the big starting pitching edge here and a home blowout is on tap at Fenway Park. Bet Boston -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 5 to 2 favorite (-$250 range) but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at -$130 price range here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his four career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 12-0 the last 12 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 12 starts against Miami. 33 of Washington's 43 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 41 of Marlins 51 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. We successfully used the same play when these guys squared off Thursday in Miami and now the rematch is in DC and we look for the Nationals to make it 13 in a row when Strasburg faces the Marlins as Alcantara drops to 0-5 in 5 career starts against the Nats. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 2 to 1 favorite but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at nearly a pick'em price here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his three career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 11-0 the last 11 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 11 starts against Miami. 31 of Washington's 39 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 39 of Marlins 48 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

While we certainly would not be comfortable laying a -175 price range (the opening number) on the money line on a road team, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the even money price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Cincinnati enters today's game with a 32-38 record on the season. 23 of the Reds 38 losses (including 13 of last 15) have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in those 15 losses is 3 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 48-25 record this season. 34 of the Astros last 42 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 17 of the Astros 21 wins away from Houston this season have come by 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Reds are 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani's 4 home starts this season and he has a 4.79 ERA in those outings plus has been hit hard in recent home starts. The Astros start Justin Verlander here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in 33 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 12-4 this season in Verlander's starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are 20-7 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Minnesota (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Friday at 8:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Minnesota, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Twins win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 16-18 record on the season. 15 of Detroit's 18 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Twins, they enter tonight's game with an 11-5 record in home games this season. 9 of those 11 home wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 10 of Minnesota's 11 wins since April 22nd have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Twins average margin of victory this season is 3.9 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-3 in Tyson Ross' road starts this season. The Detroit right-hander recently returned from paternity leave and still was struggling so they even moved this start back a day trying to get him straightened out. The fact is that Tyson Ross is struggling badly including an 8.03 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Minnesota goes with red hot Jake Odorizzi on the bump tonight. The Twins right-hander has been dominating. In his last two starts he has allowed NO earned runs on only 6 hits in 13 innings while striking out 15 batters. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Twins win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 12-36 the last 48 times they've been a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The Twins are 18-4 the last 22 times (including 5-0 this season) in home games in which they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Bet Minnesota -1.5 runs in evening action Friday

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 4) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. In Game 3 it was a 1-point game at halftime, but the Bucks controlled the tempo and game for much of the second half in a relatively easy win. The Bucks shot over 50% and got a surprise 21-points from George Hill off the bench. The Celtics shot just 43% as a team and gave up 52 points in the paint to the Bucks. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-3 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last eight clashes with the Bucks on this floor. The home team has won 70% or 7 of the last ten meetings and with the line where it is, we are essentially asking the Celtics to just win on their home court. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 4. 

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1.  Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Philadelphia (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Philadelphia, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Phillies win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 13-14 record on the season. 11 of Detroit's 14 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 3.3 runs per loss! As for the Phillies, they enter tonight's game with an 11-6 record in home games this season. 13 of Philadelphia's 16 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Phillies average margin of victory this season is 4.3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-2 in Daniel Norris' last two road starts including his first away from home this season. Norris has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those two road starts. Also, the Detroit left-hander had his rotation spot moved up a day due to Tyson Ross going on paternity leave. Of course this could effect the timing of Norris. Philadelphia goes with Aaron Nola on the bump tonight. The Phillies right-hander is back on track after a rough start to the season. In his last two starts he has allowed only 4 earned runs in 12 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 13 batters. Of course he was one of the best pitchers in the majors last season and a return to improved form is a great sign for he and the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back strong after last night's 3-1 loss. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Phillies win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 2-6 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 7-3 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!

ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.  

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.  

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Cleveland (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -210 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Cleveland, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -110 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Indians win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Marlins enter tonight's game with a 6-16 record on the season. 12 of Miami's 16 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Marlins average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Indians, they enter tonight's game with a 12-9 record on the season. 9 of Cleveland's 12 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Indians average margin of victory this season is nearly 3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Marlins Pablo Lopez is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his two road starts this season. Cleveland goes with Carlos Carrasco on the bump tonight. The Indians right-hander had one rare sub-par outing in his last 3 but in the other two he dominated and struck out 24 in 12 innings! Carrasco also dominated the Marlins in his only career start against them. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Indians win by a margin of 2 to 3 runs tonight! Miami is 1-10 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Indians are 4-1 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 -  The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win!

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 8:30PM ET – If there is a game the Pacers are going to win it’s this one. Indiana outplayed the Celtics in Game 2 and this series should be even. With just 51 seconds to play the Pacers had a 2-point lead but got outscored 10-0 to end the game. Indiana was 29-12 SU at home this season while Boston was 21-20 on the road. Indiana has a home differential of +7.7PPG which is the 6th highest number in the NBA. The Pacers strength at home this season was their defense which was 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, allowing just 1.027 points per possession. Let’s not be mistaken, the Celtics had some solid road differentials at +2.1PPG which was 6th best in the league but their road offensive efficiency rating was 23rd in the NBA. This Indiana team is a resilient bunch of players that will bounce back from their late game collapse in Boston in Game 2 and grab this home win in Game 3. Indiana a profitable 9-4 ATS their last thirteen home games against road teams with a winning record and the favorite in this rivalry has covered 4 of the last five meetings.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.

We'll take the points with Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. The Thunder won five straight games to end the regular season, including wins at Milwaukee and home against Houston, but lost the opener of this series. OKC had the 7th best road differential in the NBA this season at +2PPG, were 11th in road offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. Portland had one of the better home point differential numbers and great offensive efficiency stats, but their home defensive efficiency numbers were 19th in the NBA. In Game #1 the Thunder lost by just 5-points despite shooting just 5 of 33 from beyond the arc. That’s not a ‘normal’ night for the Thunder who shoot just under 35% on the season AND Portland allows 35.7% (17th in the NBA). OKC won all four meeting this season including two games on this floor, both as small underdogs. The Thunder will shoot better tonight and even the series at 1 game apiece.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10  of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.  

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Tampa Bay (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -250 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Tampa Bay, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -120 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Rays win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Orioles enter tonight's game with a 7-10 record on the season. All 10 of Baltimore's losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Baltimore's average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 5 runs per loss! As for the Rays, they enter tonight's game with a 12-4 record on the season. All 12 of Tampa Bay's wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Rays average margin of victory this season is an amazing 4 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Orioles Dylan Bundy is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts! Tampa goes with red-hot Tyler Glasnow on the bump tonight. The Rays right-hander is a perfect 3-0 with an 0.53 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Glasnow has allowed less HITS (11) than Bundy has allowed RUNS (12) in comparing their 3 starts this season! Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Rays win by a margin of 4 to 5 runs tonight! Bet Tampa Bay -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG.  The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.

Today we'll take the points with Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. If you would have asked us a few months ago who a sleeper bet was to win the NBA Finals our answer would have been the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder were playing extremely well a few months ago, have a dynamic backcourt of Paul George and Russell Westbrook and a solid Frontline anchored by Steven Adams. Then the Thunder suffered a few injuries and Westbrook went through a shooting slump. Now they look to be back on track after winning five straight games to end the season, including wins at Milwaukee and home against Houston. Portland had to suffer through some injuries of their own this season with CJ McCollum being hurt and then Center Jusuf Nurkic being lost for the season with a broken leg. McCollum came back and played two games at the end of the regular season but hasn't shot the ball well going 8 for 26 from the field. OKC had the 7th best road differential in the NBA this season at +2PPG, were 11th in road offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. Portland had one of the better home point differential numbers and great offensive efficiency stats but their home defensive efficiency numbers were 19th in the NBA. The Blazers defense certainly won’t be better here without Nurkic and with Kanter in the lineup. OKC won all four meeting this season including two games on this floor, both as small underdogs. The underdog theme continues Sunday with the Thunder winning this game outright.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version.  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!

ASA 9* play on: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 over Indiana Packers 8PM ET – The Pacers have locked up their spot in the East and will head to Boston for the first round of the playoffs. That means a lot of rest for the regulars. In fact, the Pacers are sitting 5 of their top six players and that doesn’t include Oladipo who is out for the season. Indiana’s reserve players aren’t known around the league as a dominating bench, so I don’t expect them to compete with the Hawks starting core. Indiana has been in a win-at-all-cost approach down the stretch of the season but hasn’t produced with a 7-12 SU record their last nineteen games. They are also just 3-7 SU their last ten. Atlanta has played a murderous schedule down the stretch and have played relatively well. Atlanta has 5 wins in their last ten games and four of those came against current playoff bound teams, including the 1st place Bucks. The Hawks are currently at 29 wins on the season and would love to make it 30. Atlanta has covered four straight games when coming off a loss and they’ll make it five tonight!

ASA NHL PLAY ON Columbus Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Lightning were unquestionably the top team in the NHL this season. However, the Blue Jackets enter the post-season having won 7 of their last 8 games. The acquisitions they made late in the season finally started to click after they were able to have some time playing together on the ice. At the same time, they started to get hot goal-tending from Sergei Bobrovsky. In fact, Columbus allowed an average of only 1.1 goals per game in its last 7 games! While it is true the Lightning swept the Jackets in the regular season series, it is also true that Tampa was out-shot by a margin of 103 to 73 in the three games! That is an average shots on goal differential of 10 per game and all the pressure here is actually on the Bolts. That's because Tampa Bay is expected to win and is in the heavy favorite and, of course, they need to defend home ice. We feel all the above factors are going to have Columbus "hanging around" in this one for the potential upset. Even if the Blue Jackets fall just short, look for the margin to be only a single goal in this one. Columbus has won 5 straight road games. Also, 4 of the Jackets last 7 road losses have come by just a single goal. More confident than they've ever been and playing with no pressure on them, Columbus looks to steal game one and we expect this game to be much closer than many experts are expecting. With all the pressure on Tampa Bay here and the Blue Jackets playing loose and with revenge, this one goes down to the wire! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and very little juice -125 range) with Columbus is the value play here.

ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers.  The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Yankees certainly are loaded with some power hitting sluggers but that is also why they are prone to striking out too much. That said, this is not a good match-up for the Yankees. Gerrit Cole is off a superb season last year and he has picked up right where he left off last year as he has struck out 19 in 12 innings in his first two starts. Cole has been dealt a tough 0-2 in the won-loss column however as the run support just hasn't been there in those two games. The key here is that should not be an issue with the Astros at home and taking on an inexperienced starter Jonathan Loaisiga. He was successful in his 4-inning stint last week but that came against the Tigers. Now he goes from facing one of the worst teams in the majors to facing one of the best clubs in the majors. Houston is picking up steam now with 4 straight wins. However, the money line here is far too pricey but we see value with the run line and taking the Astros at -1.5 runs. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 9 games and 8 of the 9 came against poor teams, Detroit and Baltimore. Loaisiga's 5 career MLB starts have averaged just 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he has never gone more than 5 and 1 / 3 in any start. The Yankees bullpen has been solid but will be asked to do too much here against a potent lineup. Yesterday the New York bullpen allowed 3 runs late. They'll be called upon even earlier in this game! Cole should work deep in the game and the Astros bullpen has been one of the best in the majors this season. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league.  Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET

We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans.  Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so.  However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State.  We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here.  If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite.  So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans.  Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency).  However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke.  We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense.  We do give MSU a decent edge offensively.  They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%.  The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga.  The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part.  They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%.  Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed.  We expect MSU to shoot better in this game.  Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here.  They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games.  We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities.  While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game.  The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005.  While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech.  Those teams usually don’t move on.  In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever.  Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999).  We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game.  Take the Spartans on Saturday.